tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/universidad-catolica-de-asuncion-3014/articlesUniversidad Católica de Asunción2018-05-10T10:52:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/956382018-05-10T10:52:58Z2018-05-10T10:52:58ZParaguay elige un presidente que recuerda a viejos tiempos de dictadura<p>Casi tres semanas después de que en Paraguay <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/paraguay-ruling-party-candidate-wins-presidential-election/2018/04/22/b5a71966-4698-11e8-8082-105a446d19b8_story.html?utm_term=.1a68fdd319bd">tuvieron lugar los comicios electorales para la elección de presidente</a>, vicepresidente, el congreso y las gobernaciones, los resultados electorales siguen causando controversia. </p>
<p>El ganador de la jornada el 22 de abril – por una ajustada diferencia de apenas 3,7%, según los datos provisorios – fue el senador Mario Abdo Benítez, candidato presidencial del <a href="https://elpais.com/tag/partido_colorado_paraguay/a">Partido Colorado</a> que derrotó a su contrincante el opositor liberal Efraín Alegre, de la <a href="http://frenteguasu.org.py/">Alianza Ganar</a>.</p>
<p>A partir del inicio del escrutinio oficial de actas electorales, <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/opositores-se-movilizaron-el-pais-contra-supuesto-fraude-n1144510.html">se ha desatado una seguidilla de denuncias y protestas</a>. Entre acusaciones de fraude de parte de la Alianza Ganar y el pedido de <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paraguay-election/paraguay-elections-runner-up-demands-recount-idUSKBN1HV2TU">un recuento oficial</a>, Alegre <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/04/23/america/1524514851_753910.html">se negó a admitir la derrota</a>.</p>
<p>Todo esto ha puesto en duda la fiabilidad no solo de los resultados sino <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paraguay-election/paraguay-elections-runner-up-demands-recount-idUSKBN1HV2TU">del sistema electoral paraguayo en general</a>, mi <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y5YMudsAAAAJ&hl=de">area de investigación académica</a>. Sin embargo, el triunfo de Abdo ya es oficial.</p>
<h2>Stroessner el dictador</h2>
<p>Abdo, de 46 años, es <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/mario-abdo-benitez-un-hijo-del-stronismo-en-carrera-1593691.html">hijo</a> del antiguo secretario privado del dictador paraguayo Alfredo Stroessner, quien gobernó Paraguay de 1954 a 1989. </p>
<p>Stroessner encabezó un <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/paraguay/1989-03-01/paraguay-after-stroessner">proceso de modernización conservadora</a> que impulsó el desarrollo de infraestructuras en este pequeño país sudamericano y lo orientó hacia la agroindustria. A finales la década del 70, la economía de Paraguay llegó a crecer hasta un ritmo de 8% al año. </p>
<p>Al mismo tiempo, durante 35 años, erigió un régimen autoritario brutal. Arrojó como saldo más de 20 mil víctimas directas de violaciones de derechos humanos, con 18.772 torturadas, 9.862 personas detenidas en forma arbitraria, 3.470 exiliadas, 336 desaparecidas y 59 ejecutadas extrajudicialmente, según <a href="http://www.verdadyjusticia-dp.gov.py/index.php">los informes de la Comisión de Verdad y Justicia</a>. Paraguay tiene actualmente una población de 6.7 millones.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alfredo Stroessner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alfredo_Stroessner_at_desk.jpg">Store Norske Leksikon</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>El padre del actual presidente electo Mario Abdo Benítez, de mismo nombre, formó parte del círculo más íntimo del dictador, conocido como el <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2017/07/26/abdo-benitez-montarano-godoy-gimenez-y-jacquet-30-anos-de-un-capitulo-negro-en-la-anr/">cuatrinomio de oro</a>. Como secretario privado de Stroessner, Abdo Benítez desarrolló el papel de <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/el-padre-espiritual-de-la-juventud-colorada-577866.html">articulador y referente de la juventud colorada que respaldaba el régimen stronista</a>.</p>
<p>Durante la campaña presidencial, Abdo evitó siempre colocarse en el lugar de <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/marito-minimiza-division-y-pide-reflexionar-el-stronismo-n1130652.html">defensor del dictador</a>. Ante las consultas sobre cuál es su <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/abdo-benitez-resalta-obras-del-stronismo-y-el-progreso-del-pais-gracias-la-anr-n1130233.html">opinión de Stroessner</a>, intentó separar la política represiva de otros aspectos de su régimen. </p>
<p>“[N]o puedo reivindicar la tortura, la corrupción, el autoritarismo, la persecución a la prensa,” dijo en <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/el-surgimiento-de-marito-1377819.html">una entrevista con el medio ABC</a>, “Pero también, en su momento, cuando haya sentimientos menos apasionados, se va a poder hacer un juicio más equilibrado sobre Stroessner”.</p>
<p>A mi criterio, no caben dudas de que su nombre remite con fuerzas a los tiempos de la dictadura a una parte importante de la población. </p>
<h2>El Partido Colorado domina</h2>
<p>Pero vale reconocer también que casi un tercio los votantes registrados en el padrón electoral <a href="http://tsje.gov.py/static/ups/docs/archivos/2018/marzo/estadisticas_padron_2018.pdf">nacieron ya en tiempos de democracia</a>. En este sentido, puede que el resultado ajustado tenga más que ver con algunas de las propuestas y posturas conservadoras de Abdo.</p>
<p>Antes de ser nominado como el candidato oficial del Partido Colorado, Mario Abdo empezó la precampaña electoral de 2017 <a href="http://www.780am.com.py/mario-abdo-benitez-plantea-alternativas-al-endeudamiento-publico/">criticando las políticas económicas y sociales</a> del presidente Colorado Horacio Cartes. Incluso le cuestionó la utilización de su posición para <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/mario-abdo-califica-de-jatevu-a-cartes-1548147.html">facilitar la ampliación de sus negocios</a> como magnate tabacalero.</p>
<p>Esta estrategia intentaba capitalizar un desgaste general con el Partido Colorado, tras largos años en el poder. Este partido, que es el partido de Stroessner, <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.py/2016/09/11/los-129-anos-fundacion-la-anr/">gobernó el Paraguay de forma ininterrumpida desde 1948</a>. </p>
<p>En 2008, los paraguayos eligieron como presidente a un sacerdote progresista, Fernando Lugo, pero <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2013/12/paraguay-forgotten-coup-2013122585659847327.html">fue destituido en 2012 antes de terminar su mandato de cinco años</a>. Oficialmente, el Congreso destituyó al presidente, tras “<a href="http://quepasoencuruguaty.org/la-matanza-de-curuguaty-2/">la matanza de Curuguaty</a>,” una violenta represión policial a campesino ocupantes de tierra que costó la vida de 11 campesinos y 6 policías. </p>
<p>Pero muchos paraguayos y observadores internacionales vieron la destitución de Lugo como un <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18553813">golpe de estado organizado por la derecha</a>. </p>
<p>El Partido Colorado <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/world/americas/horacio-cartes-wins-paraguays-presidential-election.html">volvió al poder en 2013</a>, con la elección del actual presidente, Horacio Cartes.</p>
<h2>Una ola derechista</h2>
<p>Una vez designado como candidato oficialista, Abdo se posicionó más cómodamente con posturas conservadoras tradicionales. </p>
<p>Ante las posiciones más progresistas de su adversario, Abdo defendió <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/marito-vuelve-insistir-el-servicio-militar-jovenes-n1142789.html">el servicio militar obligatorio para jóvenes paraguayos</a>, explicando que el servicio militar no es solamente una oportunidad de educación sino “una herramienta más” para aquellas madres en situación de vulnerabilidad que no logran contener a sus hijos.</p>
<p>Abdo además se opuso a las demandas feministas de descriminalizar el aborto en Paraguay y <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/de-ganar-marito-vetara-cualquier-proyecto-matrimonio-igualitario-n1136016.html">prometió vetar cualquier intento de legalizar el matrimonio gay</a>. </p>
<p>En general, estas consignas conservadoras no confrontaban posiciones de su adversario, ni respondían a propuestas concretas de la sociedad civil paraguaya. En mi análisis, no hubo chance real de que Paraguay impulsara leyes contra el servicio militar obligatorio ni a favor del matrimonio igualitario en esta coyuntura. </p>
<p>Pero azuzar el fantasma del progresismo ayudó a Abdo colocar a su adversario en situaciones incómodas, ante amplios sectores de la sociedad con <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/fears-rise-lgbt-discrimination-conservative-paraguay/4163622.html">marcado pensamiento conservador</a>. </p>
<p>Al mismo tiempo que se proyectó a él mismo como defensor de los valores tradicionales católicos latinoamericanos, en un momento en el que toda la región está experimentando una <a href="http://time.com/4719076/ecuador-venezuela-latin-america-left-wing/">gira hacia la derecha</a>. Brazil, Argentina y Chile – anteriormente conocidos por su <a href="https://library.brown.edu/create/modernlatinamerica/chapters/chapter-8-venezuela/moments-in-venezuelan-history/the-pink-tide-in-latin-america/">liderazgo de izquierda</a> – también vieron a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/world/americas/chile-election-latin-america-politics.html">presidentes conservadores llegar al poder</a> en los últimos años.</p>
<p>Con el triunfo de Mario Abdo, el Paraguay continúa inscripto en la senda del conservadurismo, en la que se reencausó tras <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18553813">la destitución de Lugo en 2012</a>. El presidente electo prometió sostener <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-43861104">bajos impuestos</a> pero <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/ruling-party-candidate-on-course-to-win-paraguay-s-presidency">buscar mejores formas de invertir en la educación y salud</a>.</p>
<h2>La salida de los outsiders</h2>
<p>Pero en Paraguay parecería que lo viejo retorna con rostros renovados. </p>
<p>Hace una década, la entrada de figuras mediáticas, empresarios como el Presidente Cartes y “outsiders” como Lugo – un exobispo católico – a la escena política <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/especiales/fin-de-semana/los-outsiders-y-la-crisis-de-los-partidos-politicos-462786.html">empujó a algunos analistas a vaticinar</a> que Paraguay entraba una nueva era política. </p>
<p>Eso parece haber cambiado. Los mismos partidos de siempre volvieron a ser los grandes protagonistas de los últimos comicios, tanto al nivel nacional como a nivel local. Con políticos profesionales en las principales candidaturas.</p>
<p>Este retorno a la política tradicional ya comienza a notarse en las primeras designaciones del nuevo presidente electo. Los primeros anuncios de Abdo para su gabinete fueron en la Cancillería y el Ministerio del Interior, con <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.py/politica_edicion_impresa/2018/05/04/marito-confirmo-a-villamayor-como-ministro-del-interior-en-su-gabinete/">dos políticos de larga trayectoria</a>. </p>
<p>Marcando una diferencia con sus antecesor, Cartes, que había privilegiado a <a href="http://www.hoy.com.py/nacionales/cartes-tomo-juramento-a-sus-gabinete-de-tecnocratas">burócratas y gerentes del sector privado</a>, Abdo volvió a considerar a exponentes del Partido Colorado para el nuevo gabinete. De esta forma, el retorno a las fuerzas tradicionales de su partido parecería ser la primera nota que marcará el inicio de su gobierno.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ignacio González Bozzolasco does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>El presidente electo de Paraguay es un senador conservador y hijo del un concejal del dictador Stroessner, quien gobernó brutalmente de 1954 a 1989. ¿Puede este político profesional trae nuevas ideas?Ignacio González Bozzolasco, Professor of Comparative Politics, Universidad Católica de AsunciónLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/959932018-05-10T10:48:19Z2018-05-10T10:48:19ZParaguay’s new president recalls an old dictatorship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218191/original/file-20180508-34021-myet5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mario Abdo Benítez, or 'Marito,' as he's known, is the son of the private secretary to Paraguayan dictator Alfredo Stroessner. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Andres Stapff</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/paraguay-elige-un-presidente-que-recuerda-a-viejos-tiempos-de-dictadura-95638">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>Almost three weeks after Paraguayans went to the polls <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/paraguay-ruling-party-candidate-wins-presidential-election/2018/04/22/b5a71966-4698-11e8-8082-105a446d19b8_story.html?utm_term=.1a68fdd319bd">to vote for president, vice-president, Congress and governors</a>, the April 22 election results remain controversial. </p>
<p>Senator Mario Abdo Benítez of the ruling <a href="https://elpais.com/tag/partido_colorado_paraguay/a">Colorado Party</a> won the day – but just barely. Provisional vote tallies announced the day after the election gave 46-year-old Abdo a 3.7 percent win over his liberal opponent Efraín Alegre of the <a href="http://frenteguasu.org.py/">Alianza Ganar</a>. </p>
<p>Insisting the gap was too narrow to be certain, Alegre <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/opositores-se-movilizaron-el-pais-contra-supuesto-fraude-n1144510.html">at first refused to concede</a>, and the Alianza Ganar <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paraguay-election/paraguay-elections-runner-up-demands-recount-idUSKBN1HV2TU">demanded a recount</a>. Protests <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/opositores-se-movilizaron-el-pais-contra-supuesto-fraude-n1144510.html">erupted across the country</a>.</p>
<p>The fallout has called into question the reliability of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paraguay-election/paraguay-elections-runner-up-demands-recount-idUSKBN1HV2TU">Paraguay’s flawed electoral system</a> – my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y5YMudsAAAAJ&hl=de">area of academic research</a> – but the <a href="https://resultados.tsje.gov.py/publicacion/divulgacion.html">results stand</a>.</p>
<h2>Dictator Stroessner</h2>
<p>President-elect Abdo is the scion of a notorious Paraguayan family. His father, also named Mario Abdo Benítez, was <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/mario-abdo-benitez-un-hijo-del-stronismo-en-carrera-1593691.html">dictator Alfredo Stroessner’s private secretary</a>. </p>
<p>Stroessner governed Paraguay from 1954 to 1989. During his 35-year reign, he <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/paraguay/1989-03-01/paraguay-after-stroessner">promoted infrastructure development</a> in the rural South American country and pushed the country toward industrial agriculture. The economy grew at a clip of 8 percent annually for much of his regime.</p>
<p>But Stroessner was also a brutal authoritarian. According to reports from <a href="http://www.verdadyjusticia-dp.gov.py/index.php">Paraguay’s post-dictatorship Truth and Justice Commission</a>, the regime’s toll included 18,772 cases of torture, 9,862 arrests, 3,470 exiles, 336 disappearances and 59 executions. Paraguay’s population is just 6.7 million. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217351/original/file-20180502-153884-1i2k41h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alfredo Stroessner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alfredo_Stroessner_at_desk.jpg">Store Norske Leksikon</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Abdo’s father was in Stroessner’s inner circle, known as the “<a href="https://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2017/07/26/abdo-benitez-montarano-godoy-gimenez-y-jacquet-30-anos-de-un-capitulo-negro-en-la-anr/">cuatrinomio de oro</a>” – “the golden foursome.” Abdo Benítez’s role was as a kind of youth leader, who cultivated young Colorado Party <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/el-padre-espiritual-de-la-juventud-colorada-577866.html">members to support Stroessner’s regime</a>.</p>
<p>On the campaign trail, Abdo worked hard to <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/marito-minimiza-division-y-pide-reflexionar-el-stronismo-n1130652.html">avoid being connected with the dictatorship</a>. When asked his opinion on Stroessner, he tried to separate the dictator’s repressive politics from other aspects of his regime. </p>
<p>“I can’t defend torture, corruption, authoritarianism or persecution of the press,” he said in an <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/el-surgimiento-de-marito-1377819.html">interview with the Paraguayan newspaper ABC</a>, “But at some point, when less passionate feelings prevail, a more balanced judgment of Stroessner will become possible.”</p>
<p>I find it impossible not to believe that his name alone brings back terrible memories for a large number of people in Paraguay. </p>
<h2>The Colorado Party’s dominance</h2>
<p>That said, almost one-third of Paraguayans were <a href="http://tsje.gov.py/static/ups/docs/archivos/2018/marzo/estadisticas_padron_2018.pdf">born after democracy was restored in the early 1990s</a>. The reason Abdo performed <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/abdo-tiene-una-amplia-ventaja-sobre-alegre-segun-encuesta-1690408.html">far worse than expected</a> may have more to do with his own conservativism than with his family history.</p>
<p>Before he was nominated as the official candidate of the ruling Colorado Party, in late 2017, Abdo <a href="http://www.780am.com.py/mario-abdo-benitez-plantea-alternativas-al-endeudamiento-publico/">criticized the economic and social policies</a> of President Horacio Cartes, a wealthy tobacco magnate. He even accused the president of using the power of his office to <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/mario-abdo-califica-de-jatevu-a-cartes-1548147.html">benefit his private business interests</a>. </p>
<p>This early strategy reflected Abdo’s sense that the country has grown tired of the Colorado Party, which has run it nearly uninterrupted since 1948. </p>
<p>In 2008, Paraguayans elected a progressive priest named Fernando Lugo as president, but he was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2013/12/paraguay-forgotten-coup-2013122585659847327.html">impeached in 2012</a> before he could finish his five-year term. Officially, Congress ousted Lugo because he mishandled a violent land dispute between farmers and police. Eleven farmers and six police officers were killed in what’s now called the “<a href="http://quepasoencuruguaty.org/la-matanza-de-curuguaty-2/">Curuguaty massacre</a>.”</p>
<p>Many Lugo supporters and international observers, however, saw the impeachment as a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18553813">coup orchestrated by the president’s right-wing opponents</a>. </p>
<p>The Colorado Party <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/world/americas/horacio-cartes-wins-paraguays-presidential-election.html">returned to power in 2013</a>, with the election of the current president, Horacio Cartes.</p>
<h2>A rightward wave</h2>
<p>Once Abdo was tapped as the Colorado Party’s nominee, he comfortably adopted a conservative tone. </p>
<p>Facing off against his more liberal opponent, Abdo defended <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/marito-vuelve-insistir-el-servicio-militar-jovenes-n1142789.html">obligatory military service in Paraguay</a>, explaining that serving in the armed forces is not just an educational opportunity for young men – but also “another tool” that single mothers can use to control rowdy kids. </p>
<p>Abdo also declared himself to be <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/de-ganar-marito-vetara-cualquier-proyecto-matrimonio-igualitario-n1136016.html">against abortion and promised to veto any marriage equality bill</a> that arrived on his desk. </p>
<p>These stances do not respond to any political reality in Paraguay. There is little social pressure to end obligatory military service, decriminalize abortion or sanction gay marriage, and, in my opinion, there is very little chance of these things happening. </p>
<p>By summoning abstract progressive threats, though, Abdo made his opponent look uncomfortably liberal in a country that remains <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/fears-rise-lgbt-discrimination-conservative-paraguay/4163622.html">socially conservative</a>.</p>
<p>He also positioned himself as the defender of traditional Catholic values at a time when Latin American – once <a href="https://library.brown.edu/create/modernlatinamerica/chapters/chapter-8-venezuela/moments-in-venezuelan-history/the-pink-tide-in-latin-america/">known for its left-wing leadership</a> – has veered <a href="http://time.com/4719076/ecuador-venezuela-latin-america-left-wing/">sharply to the right</a>. Argentina, Chile and Brazil have all seen <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/world/americas/chile-election-latin-america-politics.html">conservative presidents come into power in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>Paraguay has long been a traditional place, as <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18553813">Lugo’s 2012 impeachment reaffirmed</a>. Abdo’s win ensures it continues down that same path. The president-elect has promised to keep <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-43861104">taxes low</a> while <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/ruling-party-candidate-on-course-to-win-paraguay-s-presidency">finding better ways to fund education and health care</a>.</p>
<h2>Outsiders no more</h2>
<p>But, in Paraguay, what’s old is new again. </p>
<p>A decade ago, outsider candidates – like President Cartes, a businessman, and ex-President Lugo, a former Catholic bishop – began dominating elections. Some analysts felt <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/especiales/fin-de-semana/los-outsiders-y-la-crisis-de-los-partidos-politicos-462786.html">Paraguay had entered a new political era</a>. </p>
<p>That’s over now. Traditional parties dominated Paraguay’s April 22 national and local elections. </p>
<p>Paraguayans are already seeing signs of the old politics to come. Abdo recently revealed his first cabinet nominees, and his picks for both minister of foreign affairs and interior minister are <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.py/politica_edicion_impresa/2018/05/04/marito-confirmo-a-villamayor-como-ministro-del-interior-en-su-gabinete/">long-familiar Colorado Party names</a>. </p>
<p>Cartes, his predecessor, put <a href="http://www.hoy.com.py/nacionales/cartes-tomo-juramento-a-sus-gabinete-de-tecnocratas">technocrats and CEOs in positions of power</a>. With his insider nominees, Abdo has marked his new government as a return to Paraguayan politics as usual.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ignacio González Bozzolasco does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Paraguay’s conservative president-elect Mario Abdo narrowly won the April 22 election. His father was the private secretary for dictator Alfredo Stroessner, who brutally ruled Paraguay for 35 years.Ignacio González Bozzolasco, Professor of Comparative Politics, Universidad Católica de AsunciónLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/757652017-04-10T06:33:48Z2017-04-10T06:33:48ZSeeking to quell civil unrest, Paraguay’s president says he will not seek reelection<p><em><strong>Update April 17 2017: Paraguayan president Horacio Cartes has announced that he <a href="http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2017/04/17/presidente-de-paraguay-horacio-cartes-no-se-presentara-a-reeleccion/">will no longer seek reelection</a>. In a letter to the Archbishop of Asuncion, which he photographed and circulated via Twitter, the president wrote that “I hope this gesture of resignation serves to deepen dialogue and strengthen the Republic’s institutions”</strong></em>. </p>
<p><em><strong>The gesture may or may not put an end to the political turbulence gripping Paraguay since late March, as described in this article (originally published April 10 2017 with the headline, “Paraguay in flames: protests rage as president seeks to remove term limits”).</strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Senators roughed up by police. The <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/ingresaron-al-congreso-1579617.html">Paraguayan Congress in flames</a>. Bands of angry protesters roaming the streets of Asunción. Hundreds arrested. One man dead.</p>
<p>This was the scene in Paraguay over the last ten days or so, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-paraguay-allow-its-presidents-to-be-reelected-68464">the question of whether the country should allow its presidents to be reelected</a> has prompted a deep national political crisis. </p>
<p>Images of the Congress set alight on March 31, which dominated <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/americas/paraguay-protests-horacio-cartes.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Famericas&action=click&contentCollection=americas&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=6&pgtype=sectionfront">international headlines</a>, were undoubtedly the best visual synthesis of a crisis that has been brewing here for months. </p>
<h2>No thanks, Mr. President</h2>
<p>Tensions reached their apex in late March when, after <a href="http://theconversation.com/as-paraguays-reelection-debate-drags-on-its-political-future-is-at-stake-75115">a lengthy negotiation</a>, Paraguay’s parliament took a key step towards allowing President Horacio Cartes to seek reelection next year. </p>
<p>This move, which would benefit not only Cartes but also several other former presidents who are contemplating running again in 2018, is <a href="http://www.efe.com/efe/america/politica/un-77-de-los-paraguayos-ve-inconstitucional-una-enmienda-para-permitir-la-reeleccion/20000035-3191038">deeply unpopular among Paraguayans</a>, and stridently opposed by some factions within the government. But a constitutional amendment enabling reelection has majority support in the Senate. </p>
<p>To remove procedural stumbling blocks that were hindering progress, members of the bipartisan alliance supporting Cartes, a former tobacco magnate, attempted to modify the Senate’s in-house rules on March 27. Senate leader Roberto Acevedo refused their request to call an extraordinary session the following day. </p>
<p>On Tuesday March 28, a 25-senator majority, acting with the support of Deputy Senate Leader Julio César Velázquez, voted during a tumultuous and irregular closed-door session <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/atropellan-el-senado-y-usurpan-su-presidencia-1578589.html">to accept the changes to the in-house regulations</a> that would allow a constitutional amendment enabling Cartes’ reelection bid to move forward.</p>
<p>With the articles thus modified, the group then convened another special Senate session and, again acting unilaterally with support of the deputy leader, <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2017/03/31/aprueban-proyecto-de-enmienda-constitucional/">approved the draft amendment</a> to enable the president to extend his term. Meanwhile, in the Senate’s regular plenary session, 18 senators headed by the Senate leader <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/el-senado-escenifico-la-division-paraguay-la-reeleccion-presidencial-n1073819.html">were unaware of the closed-door decision</a>. </p>
<p>The amendment was officially presented for resolution to the House of Representatives on Friday March 31, as the 25-senator faction sought to push confirmation of their bill through the House. With a clear majority in this chamber, a vote was likely to end in approval.</p>
<h2>Attempted coup?</h2>
<p>But opposing forces quickly mobilised. Members of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party, headed by party leader Efraín Alegre, and several dozen other senior officials headed towards the chamber, declaring that the unusual procedure would amount to a coup.</p>
<p>Before they could reach the doors of Congress, <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/policias-reprimen-manifestantes-la-plaza-n1074732.html">the group was brutally suppressed by police</a>. Alegre and several other senators were left bloodied by rubber bullets.</p>
<p>Hundreds of angry demonstrators soon gathered in front of the building, consisting of young Radical Liberals and other political forces that consider the president’s reelection bid unconstitutional. They forced their way through the protective police cordon surrounding the building and entered Congress, setting fire to some facilities and inflicting other significant damage.</p>
<p>When driven out of the building by police, demonstrators broke into small groups and scattered throughout the nation’s capital, <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.py/pais/2017/04/01/el-dia-despues-en-la-ciudad-de-la-furia/">where they defaced buildings, looted stores, set cars alight and clashed with police</a>. </p>
<p>Just after midnight on April 1, a police squad broke into the Radical Liberal party headquarters, in the heart of the nation’s capital, claiming they had been attacked from the premises. Police forced their way in without a warrant, <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/dirigente-de-la-jlra-muere-baleado-por-policias-que-atracaron-sede-liberal-1579861.html">opening fire as they entered</a> and arresting more than a hundred people. </p>
<h2>A growing sense of citizenship</h2>
<p>The days since <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/periodismo-joven/sin-miedo-los-jovenes-dicen-no-a-los-violadores-de-la-constitucion-nacional-1580801.html">have seen continuing anti-reelection demonstrations across the country</a>, most of them now peaceful. Thousands of demonstrators, primarily young people, are calling for the House to reject the Senate’s draft amendment.</p>
<p>In response to these events, President Cartes has <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2017/04/02/el-presidente-cartes-llama-al-dialogo-para-buscar-soluciones-institucionales/">called for nationwide dialogue</a>, summoning leaders from all parties and inter-party factions to a round table discussion. </p>
<p>The April 5 meeting had few concrete outcomes although publicly both sides – some of whom still sported black eyes from recent incidents – <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/se-inicia-mesa-de-dialogo-1581143.html">declared it “a success”</a>. Provisional agreements included a determination that the <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2017/04/05/mesa-de-dialogo-vuelve-a-reunirse-este-viernes-y-dicen-que-reunion-fue-exitosa/">House of Representatives would not discuss the draft amendment</a> while the question of whether the Senate’s procedure was valid remains open.</p>
<p>In a society where dialogue is not a resource frequently used in the political arena, this is no doubt an achievement. But the tenuous rapprochement has done little to ease tensions around the question of presidential reelection in Paraguay. Many powerful people, including the Senate president, remain firmly against a constitutional amendment. </p>
<p>As the smoke clears from a week of destructive protests in Asunción, two facts are increasingly conspicuous: supporters of presidential reelection have not given up, but neither have the people of Paraguay. A spirit of citizenship is growing in the country, and ongoing marches are a clear sign that residents have had more than enough of political brinkmanship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ignacio González Bozzolasco receives funding from BECAL - Paraguay. He is affiliated with ID and CADEP from Paraguay.</span></em></p>One protester was killed and several senators bloodied as Paraguayans rebelled against what they consider an unconstitutional attempt to extend President Horacio Cartes’ term.Ignacio González Bozzolasco, Professor of Comparative Politics, Universidad Católica de AsunciónLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/751152017-03-28T01:23:18Z2017-03-28T01:23:18ZAs Paraguay’s reelection debate drags on, its political future is at stake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162269/original/image-20170323-4930-1sc1nxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who will get to go to the Palacio de los López? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d1/Gran_Palacio_Nacional_de_Paraguay.jpg">FF MM/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The heated debate over whether <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-paraguay-allow-its-presidents-to-be-reelected-68464">Paraguay should allow former presidents to be reelected</a> continues unresolved. For now, none of the potential candidates currently favoured for the 2018 race – President Horacio Cartes and former presidents Fernando Lugo and Nicanor Duarte Frutos – can constitutionally run for the highest office of this small South American nation.</p>
<p>There’s been some progress: <a href="http://www.lanacion.com.py/2016/12/07/blas-llano-acompanara-propuesta-enmienda/">statements from the main players in the contest</a> consistently indicate that the way to address this fundamental political problem is via constitutional amendment. The alternative – bringing a case before the Supreme Court – has now been discounted.</p>
<h2>A great alliance?</h2>
<p>Constitutional amendment would require approval from both chambers of the Paraguayan congress. Given that currently none of the three main parties has a majority, alliance is the only way forward. That’s how Cartes’ faction of the ruling Colorado Party <a href="http://www.novaparaguay.com/nota.asp?n=2016_12_22&amp;id=23456&amp;id_tiponota=4">reached agreement</a> with Lugo’s progressive <em>Frente Guasu</em> (Great Front, in the Paraguayan Guaraní language), and a faction from the centre-right Liberal Party led by Senator Blas Llano, who is not running and supports Lugo’s candidacy.</p>
<p>But not everyone agrees with this move, and the odd political alliance has caused polarisation within the parties involved. So while Cartes, Lugo and Llano are lining up votes in Congress to support a constitutional amendment, opponents within their own parties are allying with other discontented factions from both right and left.</p>
<p>Opponents to reelection include the Colorado Senator Mario Abdo Benítez, leader of the Liberal Party, Efraín Alegre, and Mario Ferreiro, mayor of Asunción, Paraguay’s capital. All of them are also likely candidates in the 2018 race.</p>
<p>Since the end of last year, when this multi-party reelection alliance came together, rumours that it would present a bill for a <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/cartes-lugo-y-llano-se-alistan-para-violar-la-constitucion-y-aprobar-la-enmienda-1566509.html">surprise vote in Congress</a> have run rampant. Still, though the <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/senadora-liberal-asegura-que-cuentan-votos-tratar-enmienda-n1055445.html">vote count has reportedly been in order</a> for some time, disagreements over the details seem to be preventing decisive action. </p>
<h2>The plot thickens</h2>
<p>One of the early obstacles to constitutional amendment was a debate over whether and when a current president must resign in order to be eligible for reelection. </p>
<p>Cartes’ supporters wanted him to be able to run while still in office (the custom in many countries), while Lugo’s team were demanding that he step down first. The discussion had reached an impasse when <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/politica/renuncia-de-cartes-antes-de-elecciones-condiciona-pacto-de-carto-lugo-llanistas-1567163.html"><em>Frente Guasu</em> representatives</a> insisted that the contest would be unfairly skewed were Cartes to use state resources to help support his reelection bid.</p>
<p>Colorado officials finally acceded, <a href="http://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/aceptan-condiciones-del-fg-1568415.html">allowing that</a> Cartes would resign the presidency six months prior to the April 22 2018 election. </p>
<p>Other questions have since emerged about parliamentarians’ real commitment to supporting the constitutional amendment. Though proponents of reelection have consistently confirmed that they have the votes in Congress, the definitive final step – an actual vote – <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/sigue-definirse-el-dia-presentar-proyecto-enmienda-n1070564.html">has yet to be scheduled</a>. </p>
<p>Recent weeks have seen growing speculation that some in Congress are placing new demands for their support. And even some high-level Colorado Party officials <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/oficialistas-temen-no-reunir-los-votos-la-enmienda-n1070597.html">have publicly raised doubts</a> about the bill’s odds of passing.</p>
<h2>Polls and preferences</h2>
<p>Adding to this political intrigue, recent polls show that a majority of citizens oppose allowing presidential reelection. Fully <a href="http://www.efe.com/efe/america/politica/un-77-de-los-paraguayos-ve-inconstitucional-una-enmienda-para-permitir-la-reeleccion/20000035-3191038">77% of Paraguayans are against it</a>, on the grounds that it would be a violation of the nation’s constitution. </p>
<p>Even so, polls show Fernando Lugo as the country’s favourite candidate, with <a href="http://www.efe.com/efe/america/politica/lugo-lidera-la-intencion-de-voto-en-las-elecciones-2018-poder-ser-candidato/20000035-3194342">more than 50% of voters saying they’d cast their ballot for him</a>. Beyond revealing a certain inconsistency in voter sentiment, these numbers demonstrate that Lugo is significantly more popular than Cartes, who garnered 12%. </p>
<p>This may – or may not – have something to do with the fact that Cartes was the principal behind-the-scenes orchestrator of the 2012 coup d'etat against Lugo. </p>
<p>Paraguay’s long debate over reelection has now dragged on <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/titular-diputados-pide-senadores-definir-la-enmienda-evitar-mas-hartazgo-n1070898.html">far too long</a>. And it might hurt the chance of actually amending the constitution, as time to meet certain institutional deadlines is running out. </p>
<p>Though recent statements from Colorado officials say that the government’s timeline is loose and that <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/samaniego-contradice-lugo-la-enmienda-esta-viva-n1072186.html">a bill may not be presented to Congress before early June</a>, Lugo is of another mind: <a href="http://www.ultimahora.com/lugo-la-enmienda-ya-murio-no-tiene-mas-sentido-n1071925.html">he says time has run out</a>. </p>
<p>If the next steps aren’t taken soon, it is possible that this entire reelection strategy, underway since 2016, will fall apart. </p>
<p>The coming days will be critical in Paraguay, because it’s not just presidential reelection that’s being debated right now: at stake is the country’s immediate political future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ignacio González Bozzolasco receives funding from the Programa Nacional de Incentivo a los Investigadores (PRONII) del Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)-Paraguay and the Programa Nacional de Becas Don Carlos Antonio López (BECAL)-Paraguay. He is affiliated with the Investigación para el Desarrollo and the Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP), both recognized think tanks in Paraguay. </span></em></p>Paraguay remains divided over whether to allow former presidents to run for reelection, and time is running out to decide who can – and cannot – declare their candidacy for the 2018 election.Ignacio González Bozzolasco, Professor of Comparative Politics, Universidad Católica de AsunciónLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.