tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/universidad-san-francisco-de-quito-ecuador-3547/articlesUniversidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador)2021-02-02T15:19:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1540202021-02-02T15:19:41Z2021-02-02T15:19:41ZGalápagos: we’ve found out why the islands are blessed with such nutrient-rich waters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381720/original/file-20210201-23-43mwo4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3866%2C2579&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Javarman / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every part of the Galápagos’s exceptional and distinctive ecosystem can be traced back to its rich reserves of marine algae. Some animals feed on the microscopic plants directly, others, in turn, feast on them, and so on. Many unique species found only on the Pacific archipelago such as the famous marine iguanas or flightless cormorants, ultimately get their food from this algae. </p>
<p>The abundance of algae – technically microscopic plants known as phytoplankton – is a result of a pool of unusually cold water that is often found to the west of the islands. This cold pool is a result of an upwelling of nutrient-rich deep ocean waters, which is weakest during the hot wet season (December to May) and strongest during the dry Garúa season (May to November).</p>
<p>Scientists have speculated for decades about what drives this Galápagos upwelling and, in the absence of conclusive evidence, some have inferred it is driven by an eastward-flowing current <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0110.1">colliding with the islands</a>. </p>
<p>But the key to unlocking the mystery of what causes the upwelling lies in its strong seasonality. First, we found that the coldness of the water to the west of the islands is connected to the strength of local northward winds. This is in marked contrast to the weaker upwelling that occurs throughout the wider equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is sustained by the strength of the prevailing westward winds.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map. Land is grey, sea is blue and green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381981/original/file-20210202-23-n6gpu8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Global map of chlorophyll (a measure of phytoplankton growth). The Galápagos sits in a current that sends nutrients through the ‘desert’ of the Pacific Ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/global-maps/MY1DMM_CHLORA">NASA</a></span>
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<p>But how exactly do these northward winds drive strong localised upwelling around the Galápagos? We recently explored this question for a study now published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-80609-2">Scientific Reports</a>, in which we used a realistic, high-resolution computer model of ocean circulation in the region. We wanted the model to focus specifically on the effects of local wind strength, excluding as far as possible larger scale variables. This meant we modelled the ocean in its typical annual-mean state for factors like temperature, salinity and water velocity, and then “forced” it with six-hourly changes in atmospheric wind, radiation, precipitation and evaporation based on real-world observations. </p>
<p>To our surprise, this much simplified model was capable of closely reproducing the actual seasonal cycle of the Galápagos cold pool. Close analysis then pinpointed intense turbulent mixing in the ocean as the precise cause of the upwelling. What appears to be happening, to the west of the islands, is northward winds are blowing on so-called upper-ocean fronts – these are bands of abrupt lateral changes in seawater temperature, akin to but much smaller than atmospheric fronts in weather maps. When the wind hits the fronts, this mixes the warm surface water with cooler waters below, and provokes further circulation below the surface which draws still colder water up from the depths of the ocean.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A turtle with small colourful fish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381975/original/file-20210202-21-1w2onpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Nutrient-rich water supports lots of spectacular marine life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Longjourneys / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The cold-pool upwelling is highly productive, since more nutrients mean more phytoplankton which means more fish, and so on. The reproductive success of the Galápagos fur seal, Galápagos penguin, flightless cormorant and many other endemic species, is highly dependent upon this upwelling. The seasonal presence of endangered filter-feeding <a href="https://theconversation.com/whale-sharks-gather-at-a-few-specific-locations-around-the-world-now-we-know-why-98502">whale sharks</a> in the area is likely also related to these processes. Furthermore, Ecuador’s industrial tuna fleet, one of the largest in the world, concentrates on this region, as does the semi-industrial mainland-based longline fleet. </p>
<p>We then played with the exact location of the islands and their shape within our model. This confirmed that the Galápagos archipelago is almost perfectly positioned to maximise the strength of the wind-generated mixing. Without the upwelling generated by the mixing, phytoplankton growth around the islands would be closer to the more modest levels found much further west in the Pacific. And if this was the case, it would be much harder for the Galápagos to sustain its unique wealth of endemic species.</p>
<p>Our findings demonstrate that Galápagos upwelling is at the very least likely to be strongly influenced by highly localised interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. This new knowledge will inform plans to expand the archipelago’s <a href="https://www.galapagosislands.com/blog/galapagos-marine-reserve-marine-sanctuary/">marine reserve</a> and help protect against the mounting pressures of climate change and <a href="https://theconversation.com/galapagos-how-to-protect-the-islands-amazing-marine-life-from-huge-chinese-fishing-fleets-144927">human exploitation</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Forryan received funding from the Royal Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alberto Naveira Garabato receives funding from the Royal Society and Wolfson Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Hearn receives funding from the Royal Society, PEW Charitable Trust and Galapagos Conservation Trust. He is affiliated with MigraMar, the Galapagos Whale Shark Project, Turtle Island Restoration Network and Fundación Megafauna Marina del Ecuador. </span></em></p>How Pacific winds interact with the sea to bring colder waters up from the depths.Alex Forryan, Research Fellow, National Oceanography Centre, University of SouthamptonAlberto Naveira Garabato, Professor, National Oceanography Centre, University of SouthamptonAlex Hearn, Professor, School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1003022018-07-31T20:05:18Z2018-07-31T20:05:18ZNiños centroamericanos siguen migrando a EEUU porque huyen de la muerte<p>La violencia de pandillas y sus <a href="https://theconversation.com/gangs-the-real-humanitarian-crisis-driving-central-american-children-to-the-us-30672">crecientes redes criminales</a> han convertido a El Salvador, Honduras y Guatemala -países conocidos como el “<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/central-americas-violent-northern-triangle">Triángulo del Norte</a>”- en una de las zonas <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/worlds-most-dangerous-countries-colombia-yemen-el-salvador-pakistan-nigeria-a7934416.html">más peligrosas del mundo</a>.</p>
<p>La tasa de homicidios en El Salvador en 2016 -<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5">109 asesinatos por cada 100.000 personas</a>- fue 25 veces la de Estados Unidos. La misma fue tres veces <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.76.2.139">la tasa de homicidios en Nueva York</a> en sus años más sangrientos en las décadas de 1970 y 1980. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/central-american-kids-come-to-the-us-fleeing-record-high-youth-murder-rates-at-home-99132">Central American kids come to the US fleeing record-high youth murder rates at home</a>
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<p>En el Triángulo de Norte los asesinatos han decrecido en los años más recientes. A pesar de esta tendencia, cada mes miles de centroamericanos recorren peligrosas rutas a través de México buscando <a href="https://theconversation.com/forced-migration-from-central-america-5-essential-reads-98600">pedir asilo en EEUU</a>, huyendo de lo que todavía son altos niveles de violencia generalizada.</p>
<p>La continua afluencia de asilados espoleó al Fiscal General de EEUU, Jeff Sessions, a decir que “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-delivers-remarks-executive-office-immigration-review">el sistema inmigratorio está siendo violentado</a>”, sugiriendo que los migrantes fingen huir de la violencia para conseguir asilo. La administración de Trump ha adoptado una política de “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-sessions-delivers-remarks-discussing-immigration-enforcement-actions">tolerancia cero</a>” con la que se puede detener a todos los migrantes y procesarlos como delincuentes.</p>
<p>Pero lo cierto es que la vida es más peligrosa que nunca para algunos Centroamericanos: los adolescentes. </p>
<h2>Por qué huyen las familias y los niños</h2>
<p>Mi <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3208824">investigación</a> en el Triángulo del Norte muestra claramente que los homicidios para la población de 19 años o menos ha mantenido una tendencia al alza. Los homicidios de jóvenes se mantienen por encima de 20 por cada 100.000 -<a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/ten-countries-highest-child-homicide-rates-all-latam-report/">cuatro veces</a> la tasa promedio global.</p>
<p>Dicho de otra forma, los niños centroamericanos son asesinados 10 veces más <a href="https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/2017_CFR_Annual_Report,_Final.pdf">que los de EEUU</a>. Los niños entre 16 y 17 encaran el mayor riesgo a morir por homicidio.</p>
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<p>Creo que esta perturbadora y desconocida tendencia explica por qué tantos jóvenes y familias siguen llegando a la frontera de EEEUU, a pesar del peligro que les espera en su jornada y en las cortes de inmigración en Estados Unidos. </p>
<p>Parece que los niños y familias en Honduras, El Salvador y Guatemala consideran menos arriesgado cruzar mil millas a través de México -un viaje durante el cual el <a href="https://www.justice.gov/eoir/file/888441/download">60 por ciento</a> de las mujeres y niñas serán abusadas física y sexualmente- que quedarse en casa. </p>
<p>Por una una <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/violence-development-and-migration-waves-evidence-central-american-child-migrant.pdf">investigación</a> anterior, ya supe que los niveles de violencia generalizada en la región generan más niños migrantes no acompañados. </p>
<p>Para averiguar si las alarmantes tasas de homicidios contra jóvenes estaban impactando los patrones de migración entre niños y familias, combiné los datos de la agencia estadounidense de Aduanas y Protección de la Frontera (Customs and Border Protection) sobre más de un millón de detenciones individuales con los datos de homicidios en el Triángulo del Norte y México.</p>
<p>Los resultados dicen que la violencia contra niños en América Central es la causa principal que obliga a familias y niños a migrar. </p>
<p>Los niños centroamericanos empezaron a llegar en masa sin sus padres a la frontera de EEUU y México en 2009. Ese año, aproximadamente 8.000 niños del norte de América Central sin compañía fueron detenidos cruzando la frontera a EEUU ilegalmente, de acuerdo con datos de la agencia estadounidense <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2017-Dec/BP%20Total%20Apps%2C%20Mexico%2C%20OTM%20FY2000-FY2017.pdf">Protección de Fronteras y Aduana</a>.</p>
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<p>Mientras tanto, en el Triángulo del Norte la violencia contra la juventud ya presentaba tendencia alcista. En 2007, 13 por cada 100.000 menores eran asesinados en la región. En 2009, la cifra ya era de 18 por cada 100.000.</p>
<p>La tasa de homicidios entre la población menor de 19 años se disparó en el 2014, incrementándose un 12 por cient, hasta llegar a 24 asesinatos por cada 100.000. La cifra es <a href="http://files.unicef.org/publications/files/Hidden_in_plain_sight_statistical_analysis_EN_3_Sept_2014.pdf">seis veces</a> superior a la tasa de homicidios en EEEUU.</p>
<p>En la frontera entre México y EEUU, la cantidad de niños y familias aumentó 40 por ciento durante el mismo año.</p>
<p>En 2015, las tasas de homicidios de menores en Centroamérica decrecieron un 12 por ciento. Las detenciones en la frontera EEUU-México cayeron a niveles anteriores a 2014, reduciéndose en un 40 por ciento.</p>
<h2>Otros factores no explican la tendencia</h2>
<p>Mi análisis sobre migración de niños y familias incluye <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/children-on-the-run.html">otros factores</a> que influyen en la decisión de viajar a EEUU además de <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/violence-development-and-migration-waves-evidence-central-american-child-migrant.pdf">la violencia generalizada, como son la pobreza y la existencia de redes familiares</a>.</p>
<p>También evalué explicaciones alternativas de los patrones migratorios, como cambios en la legislación estadounidense que podrían convertir este país en un sitio más atractivo u oportunidades económicas espontáneas para migrantes. Estas explicaciones no arrojaron resultados claros. </p>
<p>Estas y otras explicaciones ciertamente contribuyen a entender las tendencias migratorias centroamericanas. Es decir, las tasas de homicidios de menores en el Triángulo del Norte no explican toda la migración de jóvenes y familias. </p>
<p>Pero creo que son el motor que está detrás de estos movimientos de población.</p>
<h2>La disuasión no funciona</h2>
<p>Sucesivos presidentes de EEUU han tratado de detener a los solicitantes de asilo haciendo menos atractiva la migración al país. </p>
<p>Frente a la afluencia de niños no acompañados, el presidente Barack Obama empezó a ubicar a las familias en centros de <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-children-arriving-border-laws-policies-and-responses">detención en el estado de Nuevo México</a>. También reclutó a México en sus esfuerzos para evitar la inmigración, financiando una agresiva iniciativa de seguridad para evitar el cruce de la frontera sur de México con Guatemala.</p>
<p>El número de migrantes ha fluctuado desde entonces, pero entre niños y familias la tendencia al alza continúa. </p>
<p>9.391 familias y 15.625 menores no acompañados fueron detenidos en la frontera en 2011. Seis años después, en 2017, las cantidades habían aumentado a 63.411 familias y 33.012 niños, <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/usbp-sw-border-apprehensions">según datos de la agencia de Aduanas y Protección de la Frontera</a>.</p>
<p>Por su parte, la administración de Trump ha <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/removal-without-recourse-growth-summary-deportations-united-states">impuesto mayores sanciones contra la inmigración</a>, incluyendo la separación de niños de sus familias. A pesar de esto, el año 2018 va camino de romper el récord del año pasado, superando el total de familias y niños detenidos en la frontera.</p>
<p>Mi investigación siguiere que casi ninguna política de EEUU podría atemorizar más a estos padres hondureños, salvadoreños y guatemaltecos que la vida cotidiana en sus países de origen. </p>
<p>Asegurar la frontera estadounidense significará garantizar mayor seguridad para los ciudadanos más vulnerables de Honduras, Guatemala y El Salvador.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julio Ernesto Acuna Garcia ha recibido fondos de apoyo del Ohio State Alumni Grant.</span></em></p>Violencia contra los niños en Guatemala, Honduras y El Salvador aumenta mientras bajan otros tipos de violencia. Es diez veces mas probable que un joven muere asesinado en Centroamérica que en EEUU.Julio Ernesto Acuna Garcia, Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991322018-07-13T10:25:27Z2018-07-13T10:25:27ZCentral American kids come to the US fleeing record-high youth murder rates at home<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/gangs-the-real-humanitarian-crisis-driving-central-american-children-to-the-us-30672">Gang violence and expanding criminal networks</a> have made El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala – an area of Central America known as the “<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/central-americas-violent-northern-triangle">Northern Triangle</a>” – some of the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/worlds-most-dangerous-countries-colombia-yemen-el-salvador-pakistan-nigeria-a7934416.html">world’s most dangerous countries</a>. </p>
<p>El Salvador’s homicide rate in 2016 – <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5">109 murders per 100,000 people</a> – was more than 25 times that of the United States. It was almost <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.76.2.139">triple New York city’s homicide rate</a> during New York’s bloodiest years in the 1970s and 1980s.</p>
<p>Murders have generally declined across the Northern Triangle in recent years. Yet thousands of Central Americans each month make a risky trek across Mexico to <a href="https://theconversation.com/forced-migration-from-central-america-5-essential-reads-98600">seek asylum in the U.S from what is still pervasive violence</a> in their home countries.</p>
<p>The continued influx spurred Attorney General Jeff Sessions to say that, “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-delivers-remarks-executive-office-immigration-review">the immigration system is being gamed</a>,” suggesting that migrants were only pretending to flee violence to gain asylum in the U.S. The Trump administration has adopted a “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-sessions-delivers-remarks-discussing-immigration-enforcement-actions">zero tolerance</a>” policy of arresting and prosecuting all migrants as criminals. </p>
<p>But life is actually getting more dangerous for some Central Americans: Teenagers. </p>
<h2>Why families and children flee</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3208824">research in the Northern Triangle</a> shows that homicide rates among people aged 19 or younger have been steadily rising since 2008. Youth homicides in the region are now over 20 per 100,000 – that’s four times <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/ten-countries-highest-child-homicide-rates-all-latam-report/">the global average</a>. </p>
<p>Put another way, Central American children are 10 times more likely to be murdered <a href="https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/2017_CFR_Annual_Report,_Final.pdf">than children in the United States</a>. Kids aged 15 to 17 face the highest risk of death by homicide.</p>
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<p>I believe this disturbing, little-discussed trend explains why so many families and young people continue to arrive at the U.S. border, despite knowing the perils that await them on their journey and in U.S. immigration courts. </p>
<p>Children in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala are in so much danger that crossing a thousand miles of Mexico – a journey during which <a href="https://www.justice.gov/eoir/file/888441/download">60 percent of women and girls will be assaulted physically, sexually or both</a> - apparently seems like a better bet. </p>
<p>I already knew from other <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/violence-development-and-migration-waves-evidence-central-american-child-migrant.pdf">research</a> that an increase in overall violence in the region causes additional unaccompanied child migrants. To find out whether record-high youth murder rates were impacting migration patterns among children and families, I paired U.S. Custom and Border Protection data on over a million individual apprehensions with homicide data from the Northern Triangle and Mexico.</p>
<p>The results suggest that targeted violence against children is the main reason that families and unaccompanied minors decide to migrate.</p>
<p>Central American children traveling without their parents first began arriving en masse at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2009. That year, roughly 8,000 northern Central American unaccompanied minors were caught crossing into the United States unlawfully, according to <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2017-Dec/BP%20Total%20Apps%2C%20Mexico%2C%20OTM%20FY2000-FY2017.pdf">U.S. Customs and Border Protection data</a>. </p>
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<p>Back in the Northern Triangle, violence against young people was starting to rise, too. In 2007, 13 children were killed for every 100,000 in the region. By 2009, the figure was 18 per 100,000.</p>
<p>The homicide rate among people 19 years or younger spiked in 2014, rising 12 percent to 24 murders per 100,000. That’s <a href="http://files.unicef.org/publications/files/Hidden_in_plain_sight_statistical_analysis_EN_3_Sept_2014.pdf">six times the U.S. national homicide rate</a>.</p>
<p>Up at the U.S.-Mexico border, the number of families and solo children apprehended likewise increased, by 40 percent. </p>
<p>The next year, in 2015, child homicide rates in Central America declined 13 percent. Apprehension rates at the U.S.-Mexico border dropped back to pre-2014 levels, down 40 percent.</p>
<h2>Excluding other drivers of migration</h2>
<p>My analysis on child and family migration controls for <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/children-on-the-run.html">other reasons people might decide to go to the United States</a>, such as <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/violence-development-and-migration-waves-evidence-central-american-child-migrant.pdf">generalized violence, poverty and family networks</a>. </p>
<p>I also tested alternative explanations for migration patterns among young people and families, such as changes to U.S. legislation that might make migrating more appealing or sudden economic opportunity for migrants. The timing did not line up for either.</p>
<p>These and other factors certainly do figure into Central American migration trends. Child murder rates in the Northern Triangle do not explain all migration among young people and families. </p>
<p>But I believe they are the driving force behind it.</p>
<h2>Why deterrence won’t work</h2>
<p>Consecutive U.S. presidents have tried simply to stop asylum-seekers by making migration to the U.S. unappealing. </p>
<p>Faced with an influx of accompanied minors, President Barack Obama in 2014 began putting families <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/guide-children-arriving-border-laws-policies-and-responses">in detention centers in New Mexico</a>. The U.S. also enlisted Mexico in its <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/UnaccompaniedMinors-Factsheet-FINAL.pdf">immigration enforcement efforts</a>, funding an <a href="https://wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/after-the-storm-in-u-s-mexico-relations/the-m-rida-initiative-and-shared-responsibility-in-u-s-mexico-security-relations/">aggressive security initiative</a> to prevent people from crossing Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala. </p>
<p>Migrant numbers have risen and fallen since then, but the trend among children and families is upward. </p>
<p>An estimated 8,391 families and 15,625 unaccompanied minors were apprehended at the border in 2011. Six years later, in 2017, these numbers had increased to 63,411 families and 33,012 solo children, according to <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/usbp-sw-border-apprehensions">Customs and Border Protection data</a>.</p>
<p>The Trump administration has taken even more <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/removal-without-recourse-growth-summary-deportations-united-states">punitive approach to immigration</a>, including separating children from their families. Yet 2018 is currently on track to break last year’s record for the total number of migrant families and children apprehended at the border. </p>
<p>My study suggests that virtually no immigration policy could scare some Honduran, Salvadoran and Guatemalan parents more than everyday life already does. </p>
<p>Ultimately, securing American borders will mean making the most vulnerable citizens of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador more secure, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99132/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julio Ernesto Acuna Garcia received funding from The Ohio State Alumni Grant. </span></em></p>Central American youth are 10 times more likely to be murdered than children in the US. Child homicides in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are rising even as other violence declines.Julio Ernesto Acuna Garcia, Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.