tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-buckingham-1222/articles
The University of Buckingham
2022-02-14T18:02:32Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/176872
2022-02-14T18:02:32Z
2022-02-14T18:02:32Z
The police, not the military, must stop the ‘freedom convoy’ and Canada’s far-right uprising
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446287/original/file-20220214-115872-6q6cim.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4800%2C3269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Police officers hold a line against protesters at a 'freedom convoy' blockade of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., that was broken up soon after police arrived on the scene en masse. People in Ottawa are wondering why their police force hasn't pushed protesters out of the city or why the military isn't involved.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The “<a href="https://nouvelle.news/2020/09/protests-encampments-and-the-growing-freedom-movement-in-canada/">freedom movement</a>” is a catch-all term for many segments of intolerant ideologies, including <a href="https://twitter.com/VestsCanada/status/1177995894408581120">white supremacy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1488117497354145794?s=20&t=Pqbbr_3FH0rNTYP76HsDQw">anti-LGBTQ</a> sentiments and anti-Semitism. </p>
<p>This is not a local, grievance-based protest. It’s transnational, with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/convoy-protest-vaccine-ottawa-1.6345889">transnational funding</a>, and related to movements <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/06/ottawa-truckers-convoy-galvanizes-far-right-worldwide-00006080">in 29 countries</a>.</p>
<p>It could be considered a softly violent movement because the symbols associated with it are hateful and harmful but not quite illegal. <a href="https://journals.lib.sfu.ca/index.php/jicw/article/view/2800/2051">Soft violence</a> is defined as the use of symbols and imagery that evoke fear. It enables the theft of culturally appropriate symbology to be misused and co-opted to advance hateful objectives that are intolerant in both nature and intention. </p>
<p>The leaders of the so-called freedom convoy that’s descended upon Ottawa and other Canadian cities have attempted to disassociate themselves from the illegal activity of “fringe elements,” but are themselves involved in or have expressed sentiments related to white supremacy, <a href="https://twitter.com/BikingVikingMan/status/1486970916890451970?s=20&t=fDyoWFvp6q9_4KulKFrJNw">Islamophobia</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/TonyYvce/status/1485630223995572233?s=20&t=I8FlHspUx4SFcmJ63Wkiiw">anti-authoritarianism</a>, anti-LGBTQ, anti-Semitism and <a href="https://www.antihate.ca/jeremy_mackenzie_tells_followers_accelerate_race_war_america_violence_against_journalists_parliament_livestream">accelerationism</a>, a movement to bring down governments by promoting race wars.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1490202744833155073"}"></div></p>
<p>The convoy’s security director has even authored a novel, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/02/12/security-expert-mountie-soldier-meet-three-men-working-with-the-freedom-convoy.html"><em>The New Order of Fear: The Great Reset</em></a>, that imagines Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s murder. </p>
<p>The trucker protest is seemingly not only aimed at Canadian COVID-19 policies but also at American regulations. Since January, truckers’ vaccinations are a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/canada-us-supply-chain-still-could-face-disruptions-due-vaccine-mandates-2022-01-13/">U.S. requirement for entry</a>, so the “freedom convoy” isn’t really about the Trudeau government or Canada after all. </p>
<h2>Supported by the U.S. far right</h2>
<p>The Canadian freedom crusaders are promoted by U.S. <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/hannity-predicts-outcome-canada-freedom-convoy">right-wing media outlets</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rand-paul-truckers-blockade-super-bowl-b2013884.html">American politicians</a>, former members of the right-wing, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/7/7/12118872/southern-racism-tea-party-trump">anti-Barack Obama Tea Party</a> — <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/05/16/trumps-staunch-gop-supporters-have-roots-in-the-tea-party/">which forms the backbone of Trump’s Make America Great Again movement</a> — <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7n49w/right-wing-americans-want-in-on-canadas-anti-vax-freedom-convoy">and key right-wing influencers</a> who heavily support and fund it. This promotion has included the peddling of misinformation to right-wing audiences.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1491983295676092416"}"></div></p>
<p>The siege in Ottawa has already resulted in arrests for <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/02/02/ottawa-truckers-convoy-protest-arrests/">carrying weapons in a public meeting</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8593064/ns-man-ottawa-convoy-protest-firearms-charge/">firearms charges</a>, <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/trucker-convoy-shutdown-continues-for-fifth-day-shepherds-of-good-hope-overwhelmed-by-donations">mischief to property</a> and <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-police-launch-surge-and-contain-strategy-at-freedom-convoy-protest-1.5767296">bylaw infractions</a>. But in Ottawa and other Canadian cities, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/world/americas/canada-truck-protests-police.html">citizens are wondering why there hasn’t been further police action and more arrests</a>.</p>
<p>One person associated with the Ottawa freedom convoy — Jeremy MacKenzie, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/nova-scotia-man-faces-weapons-charges-following-search-connected-to-online-video/ar-AATrPSP">arrested in Atlantic Canada on multiple firearms charges</a> — has been linked to an affiliate of <a href="https://www.antihate.ca/canada_first_exposed_tyler_russell">Canada First</a>, a white supremacist group, as well as the <a href="https://www.antihate.ca/jeremy_mackenzie_tells_followers_accelerate_race_war_america_violence_against_journalists_parliament_livestream">Plaid Army and Diagolon</a>, a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8593064/ns-man-ottawa-convoy-protest-firearms-charge/">North American separatist movement</a> that promotes white supremacist <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/04/the-growing-threat-posed-by-accelerationism-and-accelerationist-groups-worldwide/">and accelerationist</a> sentiments, ideologies and literature. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bearded man in a dark jackets talks to a woman in a grey coat outside a venue." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446087/original/file-20220213-87622-1qidtw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jeremy MacKenzie, a military veteran who served in Afghanistan, is seen in Halifax outside a venue where Omar Khadr, the former child soldier, was speaking. Several veterans gathered to protest the appearance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He <a href="https://www.antihate.ca/jeremy_raging_dissident_mackenzie_arrested_waving_handgun_local_business">spent the first Saturday of the convoy in Ottawa sending social media messages</a> from a hotel room in the company of Canada First members and <a href="https://www.straight.com/news/plaid-army-vlogger-derek-harrison-wants-truckers-convoy-to-turn-into-canadas-own-january-6th">Derek Harrison, who has been advocating that the “freedom convoy” is Canada’s version of the Jan. 6, 2021, raid on the U.S. Capitol</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pandemic/news/plaid-army-vlogger-jeremy-mackenzie-claims-that-mounties-are-planning-mass-arrests-of-ottawa">MacKenzie’s recent activity includes warning about the imminent crackdown that freedom convoy protesters should expect and plan for</a>. He has also advocated that the <a href="https://eminetracanada.com/a-man-attending-a-convoy-in-ottawa-was-arrested-on-suspicion-of-firearms/406362/">gun or rope</a> is the only way to deal with the government. </p>
<p>References to using a “gun or rope” could be an allusion to the <a href="https://icct.nl/publication/the-turner-legacy-the-storied-origins-and-enduring-impact-of-white-nationalisms-deadly-bible/">Turner Diaries</a>, a fictional blueprint of a plot to overthrow the government and enact a race war often cited by accelerationists.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1489366684070645761"}"></div></p>
<p>The involvement and association of these groups demonstrates the breadth of identity-based grievances that underpins the freedom movement.</p>
<h2>Civic uprisings require police, not military</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.21810/jicw.v1i1.476">Population-centric crises</a> are domestic public order emergencies that impact the state. </p>
<p>They must be managed by law enforcement because law and order is a policing role, whereas the military’s role is to protect the state from external enemies. The military is rarely seen during civic disturbances except as an aid to civil authorities in times of natural and other disasters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Police tow a red pickup truck with a Canadian flag in its cab." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C71%2C4800%2C3211&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446092/original/file-20220213-25309-idhfea.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police tow a truck as they remove truckers and supporters from the Ambassador Bridge on Feb. 13, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using the military to address a population-centric problem can escalate the crisis, making the state response enemy-centric and transforming the protesters into enemy combatants. </p>
<p>Participants already see themselves as enemies of states <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/ready-to-go-to-jail-for-what-s-right-protesters-remain-defiant-at-coutts-alta-border-blockade-1.5778326">that are treading on their individual rights</a>. Providing an excuse to violently engage with the state would be a gift to an anti-authority movement that already considers itself at war and is literally laying siege to a nation’s capital. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blond woman talks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446088/original/file-20220213-27-13dj4h0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Freedom convoy’ organizer Tamara Lich delivers a statement during a news conference in Ottawa. She was a member of the party advocating for western Canada’s separation from Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This movement is fuelled by anti-science vaccine deniers, anti-authority and anti-government sentiment. Its leaders are <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/who-is-tamara-lich-the-spark-that-lit-the-fire/wcm/166d4824-d440-4710-ade8-5b84c2203f88">members of separatist movements</a>. This cannot be ignored when analyzing the motivations behind the convoy. </p>
<p>Even its name is symbolic. The freedom movement is an identity that believes its rights are superior and dominant to the rights of others. They believe these superior rights are being trampled upon at the expense of community well-being. </p>
<p>At its core, this is a selfish movement wrapped in the dialogue of personal freedoms during a community crisis.</p>
<h2>Policing responses</h2>
<p>To date, police have engaged in community-based policing because the right to protest is fundamental to Canadian democracy. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1488358309367193610"}"></div></p>
<p>But protesters cannot <a href="https://lois-laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-46/page-7.html#docCont">unlawfully assemble</a> with impunity. A lack of respect for the rule of law requires decisive action for the benefit of other law-abiding citizens. </p>
<p>Policing this siege is complicated by the number of <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/presence-of-children-and-new-demonstrator-tactics-are-complicating-police-response-to-trucker-occupation-deputy-chief-says">children living in convoy trucks</a> and the layers of jurisdictional issues involved in overlapping federal, provincial and municipal decision-making. It’s a bureaucratic quagmire skilfully <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/who-is-who-a-guide-to-the-major-players-in-the-trucker-convoy-protest-1.5776441">manipulated by the knowledgeable planners</a> of the siege, <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/two-members-of-military-counter-terrorism-unit-under-investigation-for-allegedly-taking-part-in-convoy-protests">allegedly former protectors of the state</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Children play in a makeshift play area with coloured blocks and toys." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446090/original/file-20220213-17-16dtoc8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children play with toys on Wellington Street outside of Parliament Hill on the 15th day of the so-called freedom convoy in Ottawa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Protesters have <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/swastikas-and-public-urination-anti-vaccine-protest-draws-outrage-in-canada">danced on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier</a>, urinated on the national war monument, <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvnd4v/canada-ottawa-anti-vax-trucker-convoy">defecated on the front steps of a home that was flying a rainbow flag</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/4/ottawa-residents-decry-anti-vaccine-trucker-occupation">spit on residents</a>. The citizens of Ottawa <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/trucker-convoy-traffic-disruption-continue-downtown-as-mayor-urges-protesters-to-leave">cannot go about their daily lives</a> and have tried to take action <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-counter-protest-trucker-protest-1.6349936">by organizing counter-protests in the face of police inaction</a>.</p>
<p>A repressive, authoritarian police response may further marginalize protesters, but allowing the siege to continue is problematic, especially due to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/12/world/canada-protest-trudeau">an influx of protesters</a> at various sites and increasing online toxicity. </p>
<p>The continuing Ottawa occupation threatens the cohesion of Canada’s social fabric, normalizes the soft violence of increasingly threatening behaviour and gives the illusion that lawlessness is tolerated. </p>
<p>The police have been patient, community-focused and protected the enshrined right to protest, but now must stand up for law and order for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Candyce Kelshall received funding from the SFU Big Data Initiative Research grant.</span></em></p>
Police in Ottawa and other Canadian cities have been community-focused and protected the enshrined right to protest amid the ‘freedom convoy,’ but now must stand up for law and order for everyone.
Candyce Kelshall, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/160827
2021-05-21T13:33:24Z
2021-05-21T13:33:24Z
Voici comment les microbes pourraient communiquer avec des espèces extraterrestres
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401079/original/file-20210517-21-17ri2qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C3279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">La Voie lactée. Si des civilisations humaines ou humanoïdes ont peu de chance d’exister, peut-il y avoir dans l’espace d’autres formes de vie qui pourraient survivre?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sommes-nous seuls dans l’Univers ? Les chercheurs du programme Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (Seti) essaient de répondre à cette question depuis 1959.</p>
<p>L’astronome américain Carl Sagan, comme plusieurs autres, croyait à l’existence d’autres civilisations humanoïdes et pensait que nous pourrions communiquer avec elles. Loin d’être convaincus, les sceptiques avancent que le manque de preuves sur de telles civilisations suppose qu’elles sont <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2019.2149">extrêmement rares</a>.</p>
<p>Mais si ces civilisations humaines ou humanoïdes ont peu de chance d’exister, peut-il y avoir dans l’espace d’autres formes de vie qui pourraient y survivre et s’y adapter mieux que nous ? Et serait-il possible que ces autres formes de vie puissent communiquer entre elles ? Un Seti portant sur le non humain en quelque sorte. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0303264721000964?dgcid=author">Notre nouvelle étude</a>, publiée dans Biosystems, suggère que oui. Les microbes, tels que les bactéries, sont probablement les champions de la vie dans le cosmos — et ils sont beaucoup plus intelligents que nous le supposions jusqu’à présent. En fait, notre étude démontre que le programme Seti peut s’appliquer aux microbes en dehors de toute intervention humaine.</p>
<p>Pour bien comprendre les microbes, il faut s’ouvrir à l’idée que l’humain n’est pas le centre de l’Univers. Alors que, pour plusieurs, les microbes ne sont que des organismes unicellulaires à l’origine de maladies, la réalité est tout autre. Les microbes sont des organismes multicellulaires sans organisation rigide. La bactérie par exemple, forme avec des milliards de ses consœurs, des colonies capables de « réflexion » et de « prise de décisions ».</p>
<p>Une colonie bactérienne typique est l’équivalent d’un organisme cybernétique — un super cerveau — capable de résoudre des problèmes dans son environnement. Plus important encore, toutes les colonies bactériennes sur Terre sont interconnectées dans un super système bactérien global baptisé « bactériosphère ». Ce <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs101230100015">« site Web planétaire »</a> d’information génétique s’affaire depuis trois milliards d’années à réguler le flux des éléments organiques, une activité hors de portée des capacités humaines. Par exemple, il régule le cycle des nutriments essentiels comme le carbone, le soufre ou l’azote.</p>
<p>Les bactéries sont encore aujourd’hui les <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nmicrobiol201648">êtres vivants dominants sur Terre</a>. Retirez les bactéries de la biosphère et la vie s’éteindra graduellement. Par conséquent, les bactéries se prêtent sans doute davantage aux voyages et à la communication extraterrestres que nous. Une <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.02050/full">récente étude</a> a démontré que les bactéries terrestres peuvent survivre dans l’espace pendant au moins trois ans, sans doute plus. Ajoutez à cela que les bactéries peuvent rester en dormance pendant des <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17330-1?ftag=MSF0951a18">millions d’années</a>, et vous aurez une idée de la résilience des microbes.</p>
<p>En réalité, plusieurs versions de la <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019asbi.book..419K/abstract">théorie de la panspermie</a> — qui atteste que la vie microbienne existe et voyage à travers l’univers — vont dans ce sens. Des <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aaef2d">modèles</a> mathématiques récents ont démontré que les voyages microbiens sont possibles non seulement dans notre système solaire, mais à travers la galaxie.</p>
<h2>Le Seti microbien</h2>
<p>Comment fonctionne le Seti microbien ? Nous croyons que la « bactériosphère » peut vraisemblablement suivre les mêmes étapes que celles du programme Seti applicables à l’humain. La première étape du Seti « humain » est la capacité de lire des informations à l’échelle cosmique. Par exemple, en utilisant des télescopes radio, nous pouvons analyser le potentiel habitable de planètes éloignées.</p>
<p>La deuxième étape consiste à développer des technologies et une connaissance qui nous permettent de déterminer si les planètes habitables contiennent des traces de vie. Enfin, troisième point, avertir les extraterrestres intelligents de notre présence sur Terre et entrer en contact avec eux s’ils répondent à nos signaux.</p>
<p>L’image ci-dessous présente notre vision du Seti microbien. Les microbes ont une capacité limitée de lecture de l’information à l’échelle cosmique. Par exemple, la cyanobactérie peut lire seulement la portion de la lumière visible dans le spectre électromagnétique du Soleil (étape 1). Ce phénomène biologique est appelé <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zpt4xfr/revision/1">phototropisme</a> et survient notamment quand une plante se tourne vers le soleil — ou vers toute autre source de lumière — ou s’en éloigne.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seti microbien.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>L’étape deux a ensuite été cruciale pour le développement de la vie sur Terre. Les <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/habs/pdf/cyanobacteria_faq.pdf">cyanobactéries</a> ont développé une biotechnologie sous forme de photosynthèse (qui transforme l’eau, la lumière du soleil et le dioxyde de carbone en oxygène et en nourriture.) D’éteinte, la planète est ainsi passée au stade vivant avec la « bactériosphère » qui résulte d’une longue évolution. La vie microbienne s’est complexifiée avec la création des plantes et des animaux pendant 600 millions d’années. Et malgré cela, les bactéries sont demeurées la forme de vie dominante sur Terre. La photosynthèse, en tant que technique bactériologique, a permis d’alimenter la vie sur notre planète.</p>
<p>L’étape trois porte sur l’attraction et la communication entre les microbes présentant des chimies similaires. Les microbes extraterrestres devraient pouvoir s’intégrer harmonieusement dans la « bactériosphère » terrestre s’ils possèdent eux aussi une chimie et un métabolisme à base de carbone, incluant de l’ADN, des protéines et d’autres biomolécules.</p>
<p>Le processus inverse est également possible. Les microbes sur Terre pourraient voyager dans l’espace sur des astéroïdes et implanter de la vie ailleurs dans le cosmos. De même, les humains, en tant que futurs voyageurs de l’espace, pourraient agir comme des vecteurs microbiens grâce au microbiome humain.</p>
<p>Pour bien apprécier le Seti microbien, nous devons comprendre le concept d’intelligence du point de vue de l’évolution. Cela nous permettra de mieux évaluer l’intelligence des bactéries et leurs capacités, dans le contexte du Seti humain et microbien. Certains biologistes avancent en effet que l’intelligence humaine ne représente qu’une partie du large spectre de l’intelligence de la Nature qui comprend les microbes et les plantes.</p>
<p>Il faut également remettre en question la notion de réussites technologiques comme uniques preuves de civilisations intelligentes. Selon le physicien <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/01/freeman-dyson-obituary">Freeman Dyson</a>, les civilisations extraterrestres très avancées technologiquement ont d’énormes besoins énergétiques. Ces besoins seraient comblés avec la construction de mégastructures — appelées Sphères de Dyson — bâties autour d’une étoile maîtresse pour en capter l’énergie. Et le meilleur moyen de découvrir ces mégastructures serait de déterminer ce qui bloque la lumière des étoiles.</p>
<p>Mais comme les autres civilisations humanoïdes semblent rarissimes, partir à la <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-odds-of-an-alien-megastructure-blocking-light-from-a-distant-star-49311">recherche de telles structures</a> s’avère inutile. Il serait bien plus profitable selon nous de chercher des traces biologiques comme preuves d’une vie microbienne sur des planètes habitables.</p>
<p>Une façon de continuer à explorer la vie extraterrestre serait de découvrir des gaz propices à la vie <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0004698172900765?via%3Dihub">dans l’atmosphère des planètes</a> ; tels le méthane et la phosphine qui sont générés par des microbes. La découverte de phosphine dans l’atmosphère de Vénus semblait d’ailleurs prometteuse. Elle a été <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/01/27/phosphine-venus-so2/">remise en question</a> depuis qu’une nouvelle étude a plutôt fait état de dioxyde de soufre. Mais il ne faut pas baisser les bras. Heureusement, le <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hubbles-successor-will-give-us-a-glimpse-into-the-very-first-galaxies-45970">télescope spatial James Webb</a>, dont le lancement est attendu cet automne, devrait pouvoir détecter l’atmosphère des planètes en orbite autour des étoiles — autres que l’étoile du Soleil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160827/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Predrag Slijepcevic a reçu des fonds de diverses organisations, dont le ministère de la santé, l'UE, la Royal Society et le British Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nalin Chandra Wickramasinghe ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
Une nouvelle étude soutient que nous devrions rechercher une vie microbienne plutôt que des extraterrestres de type humain.
Predrag Slijepcevic, Senior Lecturer in Biology, Brunel University London
Nalin Chandra Wickramasinghe, Honorary Professor, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/160323
2021-05-12T11:28:14Z
2021-05-12T11:28:14Z
Seti: how microbes could communicate with alien species
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400296/original/file-20210512-21-1fpuk7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C3279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are microbes travelling around in the galaxy?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/landscape-milky-way-galaxy-sunrise-earth-1299679972">Nuttawut Uttamaharad</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are we alone in the universe? The famous Seti (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) programme has been trying to answer this question since 1959. American astronomer Carl Sagan, and many others, believed that other human-like civilisations must exist, and that we could communicate with them. But sceptics are not convinced, arguing the lack of evidence for such civilisations suggests they are <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2019.2149">exceedingly rare</a>. </p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/seti-microbes-may-already-be-communicating-with-alien-species-new-research-160323&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>But if other human-like civilisations are unlikely to exist, could there exist other forms of life – perhaps better suited than us to spread in the cosmos? And would it be possible for such lifeforms to communicate with each other (non-human Seti)? Our new study, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303264721000964?dgcid=author">published in Biosystems</a>, suggests it would. Microbes, such as bacteria, may be rulers of the cosmic life – and they are a lot more intelligent than we give them credit for. Indeed, we show how microbes could mimic the Seti programme without human interference.</p>
<p>To understand microbes, we need to challenge our anthropocentric prejudices. While many of us see microbes as single-cell organisms that cause diseases, the reality is different. Microbes are loosely organised multi-cellular entities. Bacteria, for example, live as member societies of several billion – colonies capable of “thinking” and decision-making. </p>
<p>A typical bacterial colony is a cybernetic entity – <a href="https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05022.x">a “superbrain”</a> that solves environmental problems. More importantly, all bacterial colonies on Earth are interconnected into a global bacterial supersystem dubbed the bacteriosphere. This <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s101230100015.pdf">“world-wide-web” of genetic information</a> has been regulating the flow of organic elements on Earth over the past three billion years, in a manner that will forever remain <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5794057_Bacteria_are_small_but_not_stupid_Cognition_natural_genetic_engineering_and_socio-bacteriology">beyond human capacities</a>. For example, they cycle important nutrients such as carbon, nitrogen and sulphur.</p>
<p>Even today, bacteria are the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nmicrobiol201648">most dominant living beings on Earth</a>. Take bacteria out of the biosphere, and life will gradually collapse. Bacteria may therefore be far more suited for cosmic travel and communication than us. A <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.02050/full">recent study</a> found that terrestrial bacteria can survive in space for at least three years, possibly more. Add to this the fact that bacteria can exist in a dormant state for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17330-1?ftag=MSF0951a18">millions of years</a>, and it’s clear that microbes are very resilient.</p>
<p>Indeed, various versions of the <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019asbi.book..419K/abstract">panspermia hypothesis</a> – which states that microbial life exists and travels throughout the universe – support this notion. Recent <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aaef2d">mathematical models</a> have backed this by showing that microbial travel may be possible not only in our solar system, but throughout the galaxy. </p>
<h2>Microbial Seti</h2>
<p>How could the microbial Seti work? We believe that the bacteriosphere could potentially replicate all steps known from human Seti. Step one in human Seti is the capacity to read cosmic-scale information. For example, using radio telescopes we can analyse distant habitable planets. Step number two is to develop technologies and knowledge to assess whether habitable planets contain life. Step three is to advertise our presence on Earth to intelligent extraterrestrials and attempt to make a contact with them if they respond to initial signals.</p>
<p>Our version of microbial Seti is shown in the picture below. Microbes have a limited capacity to read the cosmic-scale information. For example, cyanobacteria can read the portion of the electromagnetic spectrum coming from the Sun in the form of visible light (step one). This biological phenomenon is called <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zpt4xfr/revision/1">phototropism </a>and happens, for example, when a plant turn towards or away from the Sun or other light source.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400097/original/file-20210511-24-p5k1tw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">microbial seti.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Step two was crucial to the development of life on Earth. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/habs/pdf/cyanobacteria_faq.pdf">Cyanobacteria</a> developed a bio-technology in the form of photosynthesis (which turns water, sunlight, and carbon dioxide into oxygen and nutrients). This transformed the dead planet into a living one, or the bacteriosphere, over a long evolutionary period. Microbial life then got more complex, creating plants and animals in the past 600 million years. Yet bacteria remain the most dominant life form on the planet. Photosynthesis, as a form of bacterial technology, has always fuelled life on Earth.</p>
<p>Step three is all about attraction and communication between microbes with similar chemistries. Extraterrestrial microbes should be able to seamlessly integrate into the Earth’s bacteriosphere if they share carbon-based chemistry and metabolism, including DNA, proteins and other biomolecules. The opposite process is also possible. Microbes from Earth could travel into space on asteroids and seed life elsewhere in the cosmos. Alternatively, humans, as future cosmic travellers, could act as microbial vectors by virtue of the human microbiome.</p>
<p>To appreciate microbial Seti we need to understand the concept of intelligence in the evolutionary sense. This will enable us to evaluate better the bacterial intelligence, and its capacities in the context of human and microbial Seti. Some biologists argue that human intelligence is just a fragment in a wide spectrum of natural intelligence that includes microbes and plants.</p>
<p>We also need to reevaluate technological signatures as signs of intelligent civilisations. Technologically advanced civilisations, according to the physicist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/01/freeman-dyson-obituary">Freeman Dyson</a>, must have huge energy demands. These demands may be achieved by building cosmic megastructures, dubbed Dyson spheres, around their planets that can capture the energy from their host star. Searching for such spheres by looking at whether light from stars is blocked could therefore be a way of finding them.</p>
<p>But, if human-like civilisations are indeed rare, there is no point in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-odds-of-an-alien-megastructure-blocking-light-from-a-distant-star-49311">searching for such structures</a>. Instead, it may be more appropriate to search for biosignatures as signs of microbial life on habitable planets. </p>
<p>The way forward in the search for extraterrestrial life may be to look for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0004698172900765?via%3Dihub">gases in atmosheres</a> of planets that signify life, such as oxygen methane or phosphine, which are all produced by microbes. The finding of phosphine in Venus’ atmosphere was a promising lead but it now <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/01/27/phosphine-venus-so2/">looks doubtful</a>, as a new study suggest the signal could have been sulfur dioxide rather than phosphine. Yet we have no choice but to keep trying. Luckily, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hubbles-successor-will-give-us-a-glimpse-into-the-very-first-galaxies-45970">James Webb Space Telescope</a> should be able to scan the atmosphere of planets orbiting stars other than our Sun when it launches later this year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Predrag Slijepcevic received funding from various organisations including Department of Health, EU, Royal Society and British Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nalin Chandra Wickramasinghe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
A new study argues we should search for microbial life rather than human-like aliens.
Predrag Slijepcevic, Senior Lecturer in Biology, Brunel University London
Nalin Chandra Wickramasinghe, Honorary Professor, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/154709
2021-02-09T22:09:04Z
2021-02-09T22:09:04Z
Designating the Proud Boys a terrorist organization won’t stop hate-fuelled violence
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382788/original/file-20210205-19-4w9mwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C8%2C5886%2C3927&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A person wearing attire with the words Proud Boys on it joins supporters of former President Donald Trump in a march on Nov. 14, 2020, in Washington. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Proud Boys are a far-right white nationalist organization based in Canada that was recently <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2021/02/government-of-canada-lists-13-new-groups-as-terrorist-entities-and-completes-review-of-seven-others.html">designated a terrorist entity by the Canadian government</a>. This designation, however, will not stop violent extremists from attacking <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/canadian-index-wellbeing/about-canadian-index-wellbeing/reflecting-canadian-values">Canadian values</a>. </p>
<p>This is a moment in time where <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hate-speech-social-media-global-comparisons">extremism now pervades social media</a>. This change has been so gradual that we have not noticed <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691203836/hate-in-the-homeland">our tacit involvement</a> each time <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/720967">we post or pass on softly violent memes and slogans wrapped in humour</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fVuRw0k-C4M?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A Global News report on the designation of the Proud Boys as a terrorist organization.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The criminal justice system will be unable to weather this storm unless it adjusts its approach to understanding the true nature of social movements and determining whether terrorist designations are <a href="https://journals.lib.sfu.ca/index.php/jicw/article/download/1060/681">the most appropriate means of dealing with social movements</a> that express soft violence. </p>
<p>Soft violence describes <a href="https://doi.org/10.21810/jicw.v2i1.958">harmful activities that stop short of actual physical violence</a>. It takes the form of culturally nuanced, inexplicit cues that reinforce perceived power disparities. Specific <a href="https://www.adl.org/hate-symbols">clothing, memes and symbols</a> are all types of recorded social violence activity associated with right-wing extremists.</p>
<h2>Addressing soft violence</h2>
<p>While groups like the Proud Boys are undoubtedly violent in intention, they are <a href="https://casisvancouver.ca/reports/decoded/">softly violent in their expression</a>. This soft violence demonstrates the creeping <a href="https://vtsm.org/2019/03/16/five-things-to-know-about-rwe-in-canada/">normalization of extremist sentiment in our communities</a>. </p>
<p>To receive a terrorist designation, an oganization must meet <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-46/page-13.html#docCont">three criteria</a>: it must intend or have committed physical harm; it must intend to impact decision-making by policy-makers and or intimidate citizens; and it must be driven by ideological beliefs. The danger of physical harm to citizens must be clearly demonstrated with “reasonable grounds” that it has <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-46/page-14.html">carried out, attempted to carry out, participated in or facilitated terrorist activity</a>.</p>
<p>Groups that plan, conduct and execute physical harm driven by ideological beliefs are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/amp0000062">just the tip of the iceberg</a>. Neo-Nazi groups like the Atomwaffen Division and The Base — also designated terrorist organizations by the Canadian government — fit this designation: they sell guns and train militias for race wars, and <a href="https://cfe.ryerson.ca/key-resources/guidesadvice/legal-restriction-hate-speech-canada">utter and disseminate hate speech</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1357690505941909511"}"></div></p>
<h2>Visible minority</h2>
<p>These organized right-wing extremist groups are the violent visible minority, and a small part of the much larger movement of sympathizers and supporters.</p>
<p>Extremists thrive in environments where they can easily cultivate an identity that is fixated on maintaining the <a href="https://casisvancouver.ca/reports/decoded/">dominance, authority, legitimacy and superiority of the white race</a>. Misogyny and ultra-nationalism are extensions of these constructs of what white well-being and white welfare should look like.</p>
<p>Groups like the Proud Boys recruit and spread their messages through <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/06/11/news/hate-groups-mix-yellow-vests-front-line-extremism-canada">non-offensive affiliations where grievances align</a>. These destructive, inward-looking, nationalistic, race-dominant, regressive beliefs can lead to oppression, <a href="https://vtsm.org/2020/02/14/flash-card-white-supremacist-recruitment-flyers-in-vancouver/">community strife</a> and <a href="https://brenebrown.com/blog/2018/05/17/dehumanizing-always-starts-with-language/">dehumanization</a>. </p>
<p>This is especially true in an uncertain pandemic, where <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7054410/coronavirus-extremist-content-searches-canada/">lockdowns lead to an increase in time spent online</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01452-z">conspiracy theories</a> and <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/08/a-closer-look-at-americas-pandemic-fueled-anger/">anger at restrictions prevail</a>. </p>
<h2>From soft to extreme</h2>
<p>My research studies a dataset of more than 94 million extremist transactions to examine how online activity may be a confident predictor of the escalation to violence, based on the degree of usage of softly violent mass identity manipulators, like memes and visual cues. </p>
<p>In particular, I look at how these <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQAnOLPrVA4">mass identity manipulators</a> strengthen the bonds of violent transnational social movements. My research lab is currently tracking 16 Canadian Facebook groups with over a quarter million followers who engage with extremist rhetoric. </p>
<p>When other platforms are considered, Canadian support for these groups might <a href="https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/An-Online-Environmental-Scan-of-Right-wing-Extremism-in-Canada-ISD.pdf">number in the millions</a>. These followers make up a range of segments within extremism — violent transnational social movements are often elements within broader <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1382/MR1382.ch9.pdf">social movements</a>. </p>
<p>Many of the groups we are examining are actually derivatives, splinters or rebrands of known extremist groups. Elements of the Proud Boys have already <a href="https://www.antihate.ca/canada_proud_boys_designated_terrorists">refashioned into a new incarnation called Canada First</a>, effectively sidestepping their terrorist designation. </p>
<p>The Three Percenters, a far-right militia movement, have created a group called Canadian Sheepdog’s, which has more than 400 followers. The Aryan Guard became Blood and Honour, but three of its members <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/mounties-in-b-c-arrest-alleged-white-supremacists-1.738378">who were charged in racially motivated assaults in Vancouver</a> allegedly joined the Asatruu Folk Assembly. The Québec Soldiers of Odin splintered into the <a href="https://www.orilliamatters.com/local-news/group-with-far-right-ties-attends-demonstration-in-collingwood-2706376">Northern Guard</a>. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2019/01/31/whats-in-a-name-albertas-extremist-groups-splinter-over-how-they-should-spread-their-message.html">The Wolves of Odin, Canadian Infidels and The Clann</a> all emerged from the Edmonton Soldiers of Odin.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People at a protest holding a sign saying MAKE CANADA GREAT AGAIN" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382792/original/file-20210205-17-je51f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Far-right and ultra-nationalist groups, including the Northern Guard, Proud Boys and individuals wearing Soldiers of Odin patches, at a protest in Toronto on Oct. 21, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alleged neo-Nazis like Gabriel Sohier Chaput have shown that Canadians are <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/montreal-police-issue-warrant-for-alleged-neo-nazi-gabriel-sohier-chaput-1.4174807">highly influential on message boards and forums</a>. The activity of right-wing extremist groups in Canada is a real and present danger. </p>
<h2>Effects of designation</h2>
<p>It is a positive sign that the Canadian government has asserted that violent extremists will be held accountable for their activities, but the punitive measures are incidental at best. The Proud Boys as an organization will not be able to hold property or be named as a charitable foundation. </p>
<p>The members of the group, however, are free to join other groups because they have not been named individually, and expressing <a href="https://casisvancouver.ca/reports/decoded/">nuanced hate</a> is not a crime or a <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-46/page-13.html#docCont">terrorist offence</a>. These groups, like <a href="https://vtsm.org/tools/vtsmdatabase/">other extremist violent transnational social movements</a>, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/neo-nazi-sympathizers-crowdfunding/">raise money through crowdfunding</a> — being designated a terrorist organization will <a href="http://www.gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2021/2021-02-03-x2/html/sor-dors8-eng.html">limit their ability to do so</a>. </p>
<p>This is possibly the single positive tangible benefit of this action.</p>
<p>A consideration for the justice system may be to focus on more appropriate penalties and legislation for criminalizing individuals who incite violence both on and offline. Stopping the <a href="https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2016/12/03/the-dangers-of-white-nationalism-the-rise-and-normalization-of-online-racism-in-the-united-states/">normalization of extremism</a> is the direction we need to move. But without addressing the environment, there will always be an endless supply of groups waiting to take the Proud Boys’ place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Candyce Kelshall receives funding from SFU Big Data Research Grant.</span></em></p>
The Proud Boys have been designated a terrorist organization in Canada. But without addressing the means of organizing, this designation won’t put a stop to right-wing extremism.
Candyce Kelshall, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/64508
2016-08-31T13:26:05Z
2016-08-31T13:26:05Z
Study reveals what it takes to become a cryptic crossword expert – and it’s more than just practice
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136081/original/image-20160831-30801-18px47x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisblanar/2163230762/in/photolist-4ia897-8gHgVg-hcAVeD-34Eg3Y-2obBPr-34zGtP-5WNbx6-5GhQe7-8tzt7u-9yPgLe-5b8ASb-dKVabi-5b4ivX-5X2r3k-ordhu2-bbp3o-bWiT6-7EJqmT-aAwbeJ-5qjc8o-q2Jx4h-brffix-5vJYPa-5qeRXk-9kzoaM-hAGJ5d-5qeRSr-5qjc6E-9rmE6K-9cdgCV-odqCPQ-96TkjH-24uyiw-ixzi7S-cXSnA-58BrW9-4MwLtM-9uKCf7-nPVpzx-6bJYsf-6bJZDw-EDMDL-pJHonp-5a9RXm-Dooeto-4SfiQN-cNzMVJ-33FESE-e8z486-qpuoQb">Chris Blanar/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may have heard of the “10,000-hour rule”, the belief that it takes thousands of hours of intense practice to become an expert in something. Training and practice are clearly vitally important in many highly competitive areas such as <a href="https://hbr.org/2007/07/the-making-of-an-expert">sports, music and chess</a>. But is that really all it takes to achieve greatness? </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-more-than-practice-to-becoming-a-world-class-expert-60430">Recent research</a> suggests that other factors such as genetics influence the likelihood that you will try, enjoy and excel at a performance activity. We decided to <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00567/full">test that theory</a> in the highly challenging arena of cryptic crossword solving. What we’ve found so far suggests that these kinds of word puzzles actually attract people with an affinity for maths and science and that the ability to think flexibly seems more important than hours of practice when it comes to solving them.</p>
<p>Unlike regular crosswords, which typically ask the solver to find a synonym for a word or phrase, cryptic crosswords use clues that are deliberately misleading. Solvers have to ignore this reading and look instead for a grammatical set of coded instructions to lead them to the correct answer. The problem lies in recognising and cracking the code, and the task of the crossword setter, like that of a magician, is to conceal the mechanism so subtly that the way to the answer is hard to find.</p>
<p>Have a look at these cryptic clues <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00567/full">from our paper</a> and see if you can spot where you are being misled. The answers and explanations are at the foot of the article if you need some help.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Active women iron some skirts and shirts (9)</p></li>
<li><p>Speciality of the Cornish side that’s perfect with new wingers (5,4)</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Different kind of expertise</h2>
<p>Cryptic crosswords are different from other activities previously studied to explore what it takes to become an expert. For example, unlike chess, sport or music, there are very few monetary rewards or prizes on offer, and nothing by way of global prestige. For this reason, we believed that daily solving regimes would be relatively short and relaxed, with none of the deliberate, arduous and unenjoyable training burdens that <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1359813980090106">research has suggested</a> are needed for high expertise. </p>
<p>At the same time, we knew that there was a wide ability range in tackling cryptics. For example, Times Crossword Championship winners such as Mark Goodliffe can solve three tournament puzzles <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/crosswords/crossword-blog/2014/oct/20/crossword-blog-watching-a-champion-solver-at-work">in just 22 minutes</a>. On the other hand, others can take well over an hour for just one puzzle, even after decades of solving. As solvers don’t do any explicit training, unlike musicians or chess players, there was an opportunity to study what other factors might have led to these performance differences.</p>
<p>We also felt that previous expertise studies had overlooked a vitally important aspect: whether participants had specific characteristics that could explain why they enjoyed the activity. So, our first move was to get to know the crossword-solving population by conducting a very broad survey advertised through online crossword community sites, such as those providing <a href="http://www.fifteensquared.net/">answers and explanations</a> to the previous day’s crossword. As well as collecting typical demographic information, we asked solvers about their education, career, hobbies, why they solved crosswords, and whether they felt a need to engage in intellectually stimulating activities in their spare time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136050/original/image-20160831-29099-xe3o81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brain teaser.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The results of the survey were very revealing. Cryptic crossword solvers seem to be academic high-flyers. Over 80% of the 805 respondents, regardless of whether they were experts or hobbyists, had a university degree (but typically went to university at a time when only 10% of the population did so), and 12% had PhDs. They seemed also to have a drive to think, an itchy brain they need to scratch whether in their hobbies or in their challenging careers.</p>
<p>We also found that solvers tend to be qualified in scientific fields such as mathematics, computing, chemistry and medicine. What’s more, this trend increased significantly with expertise. Some of our participants were “super-solvers” who could crack exceptionally hard crosswords or finish a tough cryptic in less than 15 minutes. Nearly a third of these solvers worked in IT, compared to just a fifth of hobbyists. Similarly, super-solvers were much more likely to have studied maths at university. </p>
<p>Although you might be forgiven for thinking that crossword solving was all about having a good vocabulary, this link to skill in maths does make sense. We’ve suspected for some time that solving cryptics is much more to do with a logical, code-cracking approach to the clues than having good verbal skills. This is probably why MI6 famously decided to turn to cryptic crossword solvers as a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/11151478/Could-you-have-been-a-codebreaker-at-Bletchley-Park.html">useful source of code crackers</a> for Bletchley Park during World War II.</p>
<p>Finally, our hunch that practice levels would be comparatively low turned out to be the case. The time spent solving crosswords amounted to just six to seven hours a week (one or two crosswords a day) with only 20 minutes spent on other crossword-related activity (mostly to do with looking up the answers online). This didn’t vary among the expertise groups and is considerably less practice time than experts spend on other researched areas of expertise <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2013.04.001">such as music</a>.</p>
<h2>Aptitude as well as practice</h2>
<p>Our survey strongly suggests that having a leaning towards maths, science and code-cracking and a strong desire to engage your brain even in your leisure time are key qualities among cryptic crossword solvers. What we are not claiming is that you need to have gone to university to do cryptics. In fact, most of our participants had already started to solve in their mid-teens. But our research does suggest that there is a minimum threshold of flexible problem-solving ability for tackling cryptic crosswords, which is being reflected indirectly in the very high levels of university participation.</p>
<p>As with all skills, learning to solve cryptic crosswords requires engagement over a number of years to acquire a good knowledge of the rules and the common clue types. But both the experts and the hobbyists in our survey had been solving for over three decades on average, yet had achieved quite different levels of solving performance. This really does suggest that aptitudes, as well as practice, are important in this area. </p>
<p>Our next step will be to look at crossword solving under lab conditions. This will help us to establish exactly which cognitive aspects highlighted by the survey allow experts to outperform their hobbyist peers. Then we’ll know exactly what it takes to crack a cryptic.</p>
<h2>Answers and explanations for the clues:</h2>
<p><strong>Active women iron some skirts and shirts (9)</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The definition is “Active women” = an obliquely phrased straight definition for FEMINISTS.</p></li>
<li><p>The wordplay comprises: FE (iron, chemical symbol) + MINIS (plural form of a type of skirt, hence the word “some”) + TS (plural of “T”, an abbreviation for “T-Shirt”).</p></li>
<li><p>The surface meaning is highly misleading; the interpretation of iron relies on a linguistic ambiguity (noun, not verb).</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Speciality of the Cornish side that’s perfect with new wingers (5,4)</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>The definition is “Speciality of the Cornish” = CREAM TEAS.</p></li>
<li><p>The wordplay comprises: DREAM TEAM (“side that’s perfect”) with D and M replaced by new letters on either edge (“with new wingers”).</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64508/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
It could be you.
Kathryn Friedlander, Lecturer in Creative Performance and Expertise, University of Buckingham
Philip A. Fine, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/46104
2015-08-24T16:05:43Z
2015-08-24T16:05:43Z
Apocalypse now: our incessant desire to picture the end of the world
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92102/original/image-20150817-28357-1fx7esu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">John Hamilton Mortimer, Death on a Pale Horse, 1775.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>As is typical of our time, over the past few months, many newscasters have used the words apocalypse or apocalyptic to evoke the negative implications of events as diverse as the threat of <a href="http://www.globalcapital.com/article/ry1lc2dc4w40/learning-to-be-a-good-european">Grexit</a>, <a href="http://www.djbooth.net/index/news/entry/2015-06-11-streaming-wars-free">music streaming wars</a>, <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/asteroid-apocalypse-another-massive-rock-5888269">an asteroid threat</a>, <a href="http://americanmonetaryassociation.org/blog/zombie-apocalypse-for-the-housing-market/">the American housing market</a>, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-calais-migrant-problem-is-a-global-crisis-with-no-solution-10425033.html">the migrant crisis</a>, <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/03/syrian-refugees/salopek-text">the continuing war in Syria</a> and the negative state of the world more <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/eric-schnurer/2015/05/28/the-modern-horsemen-of-the-apocalypse-still-ride">generally</a>. Not to mention the flurry of posts which have appeared about upcoming instalment in the highly successful X-Men franchise, <a href="http://uk.ign.com/articles/2015/08/10/x-men-apocalypse-new-photos-reveal-angel">X Men: Apocalypse</a> or our <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-obsessed-with-zombies-which-says-a-lot-about-today-37552">obsession with zombies</a>.</p>
<p>We have reached a point where apocalyptic vocabulary litters writing, where Armageddon, the Four Horsemen, the Antichrist and many other words and phrases also lifted from the last book of the Bible, the Book of Revelation (or the Apocalypse as it is sometimes known), are used as a sort of shorthand for the calamitous times that we live in. In a way it is understandable: in a world of 24-hour news media, headlines have had to reach fever pitch in order to grab readers’ attention. Referencing the “end of the world” is, seemingly, the only thing that will suffice.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/g53Mh4gUEac?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>But calling upon apocalypticism so much ultimately has a numbing effect, whereby the state of the music industry is discussed using precisely the same terms as world poverty. Where man-made crises are viewed through the same apocalyptic prism as natural disasters such as the possible asteroid collision. There is a real sense in which the word apocalypse and its associated lexicon has lost its true meaning and impact.</p>
<p>This apocalyptic glut may be a recent thing in journalism, but such hypochondria isn’t actually a contemporary human trait. Taking a look at art through the centuries shows that each generation, each epoch, has seen themselves apocalyptically, albeit with great differences as to what the actual end will involve. As we explore in our recent book, <a href="http://www.spectator.co.uk/books/9570152/the-end-of-the-world-an-illustrated-guide/">Picturing the Apocalypse</a>, each depiction of the end of the world gives away a lot about what the most pressing concerns were at the time.</p>
<h2>Medieval enemies</h2>
<p>In medieval times, the apocalypse was frequently figured in terms of national and cultural adversaries. So in the 13th century, the rise of anti-Semitism meant that Jews featured heavily in apocalyptic depictions, as seen in some beautiful Anglo-Norman illuminated apocalypse manuscripts. Christ and his followers are depicted as medieval knights, while the forces of Satan are sometimes depicted as Jewish, as in the Lambeth Apocalypse of c. 1260. This sentiment culminated with the expulsion of the Jews in 1290.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92091/original/image-20150817-5083-k31p43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fourth horseman in the Apocalypse of Angers.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Or in France, it was the English who were drafted in to herald the world’s end. In a similar way, in the French life-size 14th century Angers Apocalypse Tapestry (1373-80), the followers of the Beast (a metaphorical manifestation of Satan) are clearly English soldiers (it was, after all, the time of the Hundred Years War). Angers is also interesting in being one of the first occasions that the famous fourth Horseman – the bringer of death – is himself depicted as a skeleton, an interpretation which became increasingly common in the centuries to come. </p>
<p>Soon things turned more subjective. Memling and Dürer, for example, fixated more on the nature of the visionary experience via the figure of John of Patmos, the seer of the apocalyptic events that preceding the New Jerusalem. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:D%C3%BCrer-St._John.jpg">Dürer’s Apocalypse</a> series of 1498 depicts John in his own likeness, the (rather grandiose) implication being that he is re-seeing the apocalypse for his own times.</p>
<h2>Satirical beginnings</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1100&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1100&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92093/original/image-20150817-5095-jgj373.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1100&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cranach the Elder, Whore of Babylon, Luther’s New Testament, 1522.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the Reformation, the Book of Revelation became an ever richer source for visual polemic. Apocalyptic images became vehicles for theological and even political propaganda. Cranach the Elder, for example, created illustrations for Luther’s first German translation of the New Testament of 1522, in which the Whore of Babylon was depicted wearing a papal tiara. This cemented the link between the papacy and Satan (in the minds of those with reforming tendencies at least). </p>
<p>In the 18th century, the cartoonist <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-we-learned-from-the-father-of-the-political-cartoon-42575">James Gillray</a> capitalised on the contemporary artistic obsession with the Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse (Death) to create a memorable cartoon depicting William Pitt, the Prime Minister of the day, as the rider of the Fourth Horseman, a pointed critique of Pitt’s cynical regime (1795). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92094/original/image-20150817-25727-kjlpt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James Gillray, ‘Presages of the millenium’, published 4 June 1795, NPG D12528.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© National Portrait Gallery, London</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cartoonists have continued to plunder the Book of Revelation to populate satirical images into the 20th and 21st centuries. Subjects as diverse as the Nazis, the G7 (in the 1970s), <a href="http://www.sodahead.com/fun/barck-obama-the-antichrist/question-3178925/?link=ibaf&q=shepard%2Bfairey%2Bobama%2Bantichrist&imgurl=images.sodahead.com%2Fpolls%2F00317925%2F4246663039_Barack20Obama_The20Antichrist_xlarge.jpeg">Barack Obama</a> and contemporary culture more generally have taken a satirical apocalyptic turn. Both <a href="http://www.moma.org/collection_ge/object.php?object_id=66315">Max Beckmann</a> and <a href="http://www.moma.org/collection_ge/object.php?object_id=63264">Otto Dix</a> drew heavily on apocalyptic themes and the Book of Revelation as inspiration for their images critiquing the World War I and II.</p>
<h2>Hope not despair</h2>
<p>So what constitutes an “apocalypse” has mutated dramatically over the centuries, from the English to the Jewish to Barack Obama. And the torrid apocalyptic speculation surrounding our own era is nothing out of the ordinary. The journalists alluded to at the beginning of this piece are drawing on a distinguished and rich apocalyptic tradition, the details of which may have been updated to reflect new global developments and social trends but, as with previous generations, the ways in which we frame our apocalyptic expectations act more as a mirror to our collective anxieties than as signposts to an actual apocalypse.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92095/original/image-20150817-5110-tpvy0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jan van Eyck, Ghent Altarpiece, Saint Bavo Cathedral, c. 1430.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But perhaps the truest representation of the ultimate meaning of the Book of Revelation (the main source for the Western conception of the apocalypse and apocalyptic more generally) is to be found in Van Eyck’s sublime Ghent Altarpiece of 1432. In this painting, the Lamb of God is the centre of a paradisial vision of the New Jerusalem, the new reality which will follow Armageddon and the Last Judgement, set against a background of Flemish churches.</p>
<p>This altarpiece reminds us of something that may surprise the modern reader or viewer: the central character in the Book of Revelation and indeed of the apocalypse itself, is actually the Lamb of God or Christ (sometimes referred to as the Rider on the White Horse), rather than Satan or Death. Christ redeems those who believe from the woes and disasters which afflict followers of Satan and his Beasts, and it is hope, rather than destruction, that actually characterises apocalyptic thought. Perhaps this is something we would do well to remember.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
We have reached a point where apocalyptic vocabulary litters writing – but the end of the world has always populated paintings, and betrays a lot about contemporary concerns.
Natasha O'Hear, Lecturer in Theology & Visual Art, University of St Andrews
Anthony O'Hear, Director of the Royal Institute of Philosophy, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/40781
2015-05-15T15:38:20Z
2015-05-15T15:38:20Z
How one of the world’s biggest investors might help you keep your job
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81207/original/image-20150511-10269-79rttd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Norway: a flag bearer for ethical investment?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/61508583@N02/13222256714/in/photolist-m9pwgm-mzAmQe-jDEiWo-jaCjC5-hyhUQw-pokaki-p7muwU-q3YjXz-p7mtQd-pDGrVJ-ocv4Yj-oyb9Lx-oqBhdH-nJ3SzG-nCBeKZ-nmE7e7-nJt98S-nJBWnG-nA1HFZ-naQVuL-m9yviR-ifApAn-i3McWU-i3MLsx-hGztSc-hx3tsb-hPES7G-hhqSqm-hhvxXZ-gGHAB8-gD9dvQ-fXqiF5-fGMhCD-fD3v2C-fCjwjL-fCjwTC-fC5dzt-fxsPE4-fB5mQz-fwWdPA-fwWe3d-bzmZh7-iAR9cZ-g7K1gU-eXS4KH-eXS4bT-eXS4DM-eLbyUy-eY4spo-fmXCLT">Butz.2013</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>They are the <a href="http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/">giants of the global investment stage</a>. Funded, by and large, with oil and gas money and embodying the financial might of their country of origin, sovereign wealth funds can sometimes seem all-powerful. It is no surprise that they spark questions around their regulation and transparency. However, there is one crucial question that has remained in the shadows: what effect might such a fund have on your job?</p>
<p>Smaller financial players, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-private-equity-deals-that-fail-to-justify-fast-buck-strategies-34628">such as private equity houses</a>, attract great controversy over accusations that they pursue drastic cost cuts in pursuit of a profit, leading to job losses and a longer term destruction of organisational capabilities. </p>
<p>The scale and scope of sovereign wealth funds mean they could have an even greater impact. They, after all, are in the business of generating returns, just like a private equity investor and in theory, there is little to stop most of them adopting an equally aggressive approach.</p>
<h2>Powerhouses</h2>
<p>Sovereign wealth funds have spread their money across a huge variety of assets in financial markets, from infrastructure projects to major holdings in foreign firms and smaller investments in bonds and stock markets. </p>
<p>Norway’s oil fund <a href="http://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/market-value/">is the world’s largest</a>. It is currently sitting on assets with a market value of about $900 billion. Other major funds include the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Saudi Arabia’s SAMA Foreign Holdings, the China Investment Corporation and the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81208/original/image-20150511-10286-1ljhuhb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil barrels. Wealth creation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ifpri/6169707470/in/photolist-apcn5J-apcje9-wG3b7-eNLxMz-6EAPgc-by6tn2-vWfMZ-7oSmuo-q6WtUD-efznRj-52Hji2-36sMmz-6asNRb-4NBYV4-aEZdUu-aNw7hc-5r5m9j-N7Joq-9pXw6Z-4oiCGs-7jk1bW-oSgtGB-5N2DJC-gcqstT-57Y1Jd-mB29D-hza1TV-ej81k-bkbPdw-bkbzUm-8x2oWz-8conDT-dhbUwr-eRj8Am-2vsXCM-dCnfmH-4TkE2V-8x5ox5-bR81WP-a7afhH-doWzjX-advRxN-4B54CR-8crLUY-72DYtT-8cs1yo-72JXdQ-rbJ7p1-8cs5CU-2Baq7A">IFPRI -IMAGES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, there are as many as 71 sovereign wealth funds across the globe. They have an <a href="http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/">estimated combined value of $7 trillion</a> and with shares in one out of every five companies worldwide, they collectively hold an enormous amount of wealth and power.</p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly given their financial influence, the funds have caused major controversy on numerous occasions. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13371084">Accusations have been rife</a> that some investments are motivated by political rather than economic incentives, or that some funds use investments as a means to purchase technological capabilities or intellectual property for their state of origin, with little concern for the physical operations, or the staff, at the companies involved. </p>
<h2>Responsible investment</h2>
<p>Norway’s oil fund is rather different. It has an <a href="http://www.ipe.com/norways-pension-fund-global-to-shift-exclusion-powers-to-norges-bank/10001495.fullarticle">explicitly ethical brief</a>, and emphasises the importance of responsible investment in the management of its funds as well as an active ownership style which means it will lobby company bosses over strategic or ethical issues close to its heart. It means that Norway’s fund is among a handful which score a perfect ten on the standard transparency measure used in the sector. However, <a href="http://www.swfinstitute.org/statistics-research/linaburg-maduell-transparency-index/">more than 20 funds have a score of only five</a> or below on the same scale. </p>
<p>Now, these low scores alone don’t mean that an investment by one of these giant funds in the company you work for will lead to negative effects, such as job cuts and insecurity. If a fund makes a much-needed capital infusion into a struggling firm, then that will in turn benefit employees. It is also plausible that sovereign wealth fund investment has no discernible impact, as <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8683.2011.00848.x/abstract;jsessionid=D83D3A6B4062E88569E9D1ACB70AEB3F">some evidence</a> suggests minimal influence on wages and working conditions. The impact on human resource management is also likely to be diluted given that the funds are rarely sole owners of firms. </p>
<p>One <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8683.2011.00848.x/abstract;jsessionid=D83D3A6B4062E88569E9D1ACB70AEB3F">case study</a> of the Dubai sovereign wealth fund revealed few effects on employment and minimal but detrimental changes in workers’ voice and pensions. But frankly, there is only limited literature that explores these funds’ potential impact on the strategies of investee firms. We have tried to fill that gap in understanding by examining the case of investments by Norway’s oil fund in the UK. </p>
<h2>Job security</h2>
<p>Our focus is on investments which led to the fund owning at least 3% of a firm’s equity from 2008-2013. This gives us 80 UK-listed companies the Norwegian fund invested in. We also identified a suitable control group without sovereign wealth fund investment, but which matched the characteristics of the investee firms. We found control firms for 67 of the 80 companies.</p>
<p>What did we find? As one would expect given the choice of our period of study, there is a general downward trend in employment. However, this is counterbalanced by a significantly positive effect from the Norway investment on firms’ HR practices, specifically in terms of retaining workers. </p>
<p>Keeping everything else fixed, while there were was on average a 4% decrease in employment across all the firms forming part of this study, this decrease was more than counteracted by an 8% increase in employment – and hence a net increase of 4% – in firms with a significant Norwegian stake. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/81376/original/image-20150512-22578-1xschfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is Norwegian oil keeping you in a job?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/120420083@N05/16163741756/in/photolist-qCkphG-5TViZa-67UECb-5TVjFt-5vqki4-5VMa2j-5VGP3D-rNzgXs-3WTC2i-dUWCDK-eaRAs6-31ehvR-6qkpaQ-nB5Ckm-s3SNcq-5zJyFD-dV3jv5-5srxga-c6h5RJ-8NA2o7-8TFk5a-oDeQQ4-5TVhYi-9QabRK-apjQB-3Vsiqk-eEdWE7-47p9Hs-fJZ4QX-5fKcai-5TZECE-btkVt1-dSr2r-5TVibD-8NA22Q-DaAsn-aR2zZi-M88Fb-6NJ5Ln-5TZEgd-dqBjRy-h2L8Y6-8uHj5u-h2KkgS-5oGPY-cTvJm7-8X22Ha-9Qd4Tm-f6jTjU-eF2BGi">Sarah Tzinieris</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is important to note again that this finding has been subject to controls which isolate potential industry-wide effects or the effects of timing. Finally, we have also adjusted for differences in wage costs and productivity, which might explain differences in the demand for labour. </p>
<p>This all leaves the way clear to argue that Norway’s oil fund has an interest in ensuring employment stability and job security in line with its Norwegian ethical values. </p>
<p>Now, you might speculate that investments that reduce workforce downsizing create a subsequently negative effect on firm profitability. However, we do not find that investments have any effect on firm performance, whether positive or negative. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the fund’s average stake is around 4%, with a maximum just below 9%. The implication is that even a relatively small minority stake may impact on HR policy. Clearly, those in charge of human resources policy need to be kept informed of changes in their firm’s shareholding structure if they are to respond appropriately to developments. </p>
<p>Let’s not forget that in the Norway fund’s case, it regularly <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/16/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-drops-over-50-coal-companies">reviews investments and dumps its stakes</a> if a company fails to meet its criteria, an outcome that could be a financial and reputational headache for the board. </p>
<p>In the case of our research, the Norway oil fund might bring with it demands for an ethical approach to staff, but each sovereign wealth fund is a different beast. It will be crucial for managers to understand the very individual nature and behavioural patterns of their new, giant, investors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Goergen is a Research Associate of the European Corporate Governance Institute.
Geoffrey Wood - no potential conflicts.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Wood, Marijana Baric, and Noel O'Sullivan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Sovereign Wealth Funds have about $7 trillion to invest in the companies we work for – and new research shows that the biggest of them brings some extra benefits.
Marijana Baric, Lecturer, University of Buckingham
Geoffrey Wood, Dean of Essex Business School, University of Essex
Marc Goergen, Professor of Finance, Cardiff University
Noel O'Sullivan, Professor of Accounting, Loughborough University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/36640
2015-01-26T06:18:45Z
2015-01-26T06:18:45Z
The female enigmas of Bletchley Park in the 1940s should encourage those of tomorrow
<p>Bletchley Park is a name on everyone’s lips at the moment thanks to the generous coverage stemming from a <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2084970/">film</a> that rightly celebrates the role played by men like <a href="https://theconversation.com/alan-turings-legacy-is-even-bigger-than-we-realise-34735">Alan Turing</a>. But what about the women? At its height there were more than 10,000 people working at Bletchley Park, of whom more than two-thirds were women. </p>
<p>Home to the <a href="http://www.bletchleypark.org.uk/content/hist/">Government Code and Cypher School</a>, Bletchley Park – affectionately called BP by its incumbents – was shrouded in secrecy during the war and for decades after. Only comparatively recently has it had the recognition it deserves as records are gradually released into the public domain and books are researched and written – another was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/bletchley-park-women-meet-codebreakers-book-launch">published just recently</a>.</p>
<h2>Wrens on the code-breaking frontline</h2>
<p>Many of Bletchley’s women performed very monotonous roles, but nevertheless important jobs that required great concentration for hours on end. They worked in shifts, where no matter what shift they were on they had to fall in line with the others. So those getting up in time for a midnight shift had to endure stew and dripping for breakfast or spend the eight-hour shift hungry. But for all its foibles, it was a fascinating place to be: one day you might be sitting next to <a href="http://jamesbond.wikia.com/wiki/Ian_Fleming">Ian Fleming</a> at lunch, creator of James Bond and frequent visitor, the the next sharing a bottle of celebratory wine with <a href="http://www.hmshood.com/crew/biography/abc_bio.htm">Admiral Andrew Cunningham</a>, the first sea lord.</p>
<p>Women held numerous roles at Bletchley, ranging from administrators, card index compilers and dispatch riders to code-breaking specialists. Initially the men in charge had assumed that women were incapable of operating the Bombe cryptoanalysis machines and later the Colossus code-breaking computers – until a group of Women’s Royal Naval Service (Wrens) were brought in. Proving themselves up to the job, many women who had signed up to travel and see the world in the navy instead found themselves assigned to “HMS Pembroke V” – the naval assignation for Bletchley Park – in deepest Buckinghamshire about 100 miles from the sea. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HYNen5muQSE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>They came from a variety of backgrounds: some were secretarial college graduates, others from universities, while others came straight from school aged 14. Debutantes, those women from high society backgrounds, were among the first brought to Bletchley as they were considered the most trustworthy – a time when those with the right connections could walk straight into a job in the nation’s most secret organisation. Irrespective of background, all were looking for a job that would make a difference to the war effort. While the many women operating these machines were cogs in the giant code-breaking machine, they were for that no less important than their male counterparts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69927/original/image-20150123-24525-6odry4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Operating one of the Colossus code-breaking computers at Bletchley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Colossus.jpg">HMSO/The National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dilly’s Girls</h2>
<p>In other areas of Bletchley were women who worked directly on code-breaking. Working under Dilly Knox, “<a href="http://www.bletchleyparkresearch.co.uk/research-notes/women-codebreakers/">Dilly’s Girls</a>” as they were known included university graduates and actresses among others. </p>
<p>To name but a few, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/military-obituaries/special-forces-obituaries/10447712/Mavis-Batey-obituary.html">Mavis Lever</a> cracked Italian codes, including messages that led to the Allies’ victory against the Italian navy at <a href="http://ww2today.com/28th-march-1941-italian-fleet-surprised-at-the-battle-of-matapan">Matapan</a>. Working on German and Russian codes, <a href="http://www.policy.manchester.ac.uk/resources/civil-servant/about/margaretrock/">Margaret Rock</a> was described by Knox as the “fourth or fifth best in the whole of the Enigma staff”. Their work led Knox to exclaim (<a href="http://www.math.nyu.edu/%7Ecrorres/Archimedes/Lever/LeverIntro.html">after Aristotle</a>): “Give me a Rock and a Lever and I will move the universe”. </p>
<p><a href="http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Clarke_Joan.html">Joan Murray</a> née Clarke, immortalised by Keira Knightly in The Imitation Game, was a brilliant mathematician who went on to be deputy head of Bletchley’s <a href="http://www.ellsbury.com/hut8/hut8-000.htm">Hut 8</a> due to her code-breaking skills. These women and many others did vital work at Bletchley.</p>
<h2>A secret kept, slowly revealed</h2>
<p>Since Bletchley’s secrets were first revealed with the publication of <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Ultra-Secret-Operation-Bletchley/dp/0752837516">The Ultra Secret</a> in 1974, Bletchley veterans have begun to open up about their experiences. At almost every reunion – each September the park hosts a reunion for all former staff – a new memory is recalled and recorded for posterity. Families also come to learn more about what their relatives did, the younger children brought up on confessional social media often aghast at the idea of keeping secrets for 30 years. </p>
<p>Their work arguably shortened the war by two years. Many of the women were decommissioned at the end of the war or, leaving as married women, usually could not continue working. However some stayed on as the organisation transformed into <a href="http://www.gchq.gov.uk/">GCHQ</a> as it is today. It’s entirely possible that some of these women continued to play important roles in the early days of computing and intelligence after the war, but we will have to wait for those records to be released. </p>
<p>Such secrecy is a shame, because while there is no let-up in the arrival of new generations of brilliant young female minds, we – men and women – need more reminders of what <a href="http://www.bletchleyparkresearch.co.uk/women-in-security-today-tomorrow/">women working in computing and technical fields have achieved</a> in the past, and what they could achieve today and in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryony Norburn is affiliated with Bletchley Park - volunteer.</span></em></p>
Bletchley Park is a name on everyone’s lips at the moment thanks to the generous coverage stemming from a film that rightly celebrates the role played by men like Alan Turing. But what about the women…
Bryony Norburn, Phd Student, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/27766
2014-06-10T04:53:18Z
2014-06-10T04:53:18Z
Our right to be safe trumps press right to free speech
<p>Tim Crook and I agree that, ideally, for justice to be done, it must be seen to be done. We also agree that the media should be free to publish within the law and that we are all better off without Levesonian regulation. </p>
<p>We agree on little else. </p>
<p>His argument is that if the trial of two alleged terrorists goes ahead in secret that will be an “<a href="https://theconversation.com/secret-trial-this-assault-on-free-speech-and-open-justice-must-not-stand-27651">assault on free speech and open justice</a>” and “the power of the state is poised to cross the red line between liberal democracy and authoritarianism”. </p>
<p>Sadiq Khan MP, the shadow justice minister (who has <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7256421.stm">had his own brush with MI5</a> in 2008) thinks the same (he speaks of “undermining the public’s confidence in justice”) as do Shami Chakrabati, libertarian Tories like Dominic Raab, and The Daily Mail, The Telegraph and The Guardian. They are wrong.</p>
<p>For one thing, we know enough about this trial to be sure it is has nothing to do with “free speech” but with allegations of terrorism involving bomb-making. </p>
<p>Whether or not this would be the first time a national security trial is wholly held in camera (should <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jennymccartney/100275000/the-trial-that-has-to-be-heard-in-secret-and-dont-ask-why-2/">Mr Justice Nicol</a>’s ruling be upheld on appeal) we know that the trial is happening and what it’s about. Indeed the very use of the word “secret” rather than “in camera” is significant. It plays to the ridiculous “power of nightmares” thinking that Britain has become a secret and authoritarian state, spying on everyone on spurious national security grounds. </p>
<p>Actually, English courts have <a href="http://www.societyofeditors.co.uk/userfiles/file/Reporting%20Restrictions%20Crown%20Court.pdf">often resorted to in camera</a> trials for at least part of the proceedings when national security has been affected. In this case we know that, in the view of the CPS and Nicol (an expert on media law), unless this trial is held wholly in camera it will have to be abandoned and, if the allegations against them are true, that two very dangerous men will be set free. </p>
<h2>A question of safety</h2>
<p>There can be no better illustration of the moral and social irresponsibility of the libertarian viewpoint that it is always better that dangerous and guilty people go free than that they should be tried and either found guilty or acquitted in camera.</p>
<p>Here, plainly, there is a conflict between serving the interests of open justice and serving our national security. That justice itself will ultimately be done should not be questioned, even if many years may elapse before this be achieved. No one knows precisely why it is thought this trial should be held wholly in camera. The two most obvious explanations are either that witnesses’ lives would be at risk if they were to testify against these men, or that the secrecy of the methods used by MI5 and the police to win evidence should be maintained.</p>
<p>The media’s line (as put by <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/philipjohnston/100274921/secret-trials-democracies-die-behind-closed-doors/">The Telegraph’s Phil Johnston</a>) is that they themselves should be trusted not to disclose sensitive or dangerous information about MI5’s methods or witnesses. The hard truth, however, is that we cannot trust the media to do the right thing. </p>
<p>Newspapers, apart from all the vital things they do in a free democracy, make money from the news. We’ve repeatedly seen that they are more than happy to be in contempt of court in order to sell stories. Of the many examples, let’s just mention the name of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20031173">Levi Bellfield</a>, or reflect on the trials that have had to be abandoned because of the media’s contemptuous disregard for legal process.</p>
<p>Even more seriously, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-nsa-whistleblower-surveillance">The Guardian</a> has demonstrated that to sell papers it is ready to compromise national security. The publication of the Snowden material revealed no wrongdoing by any intelligence agency in the UK (or the USA) merely wrongdoing by Snowden – and The Guardian in publishing secrets kept by people whom we pay to keep us safe. We know their work had been badly damaged as a result. If this case is about free speech it is about our free speech, and keeping us secure from terrorists who want to destroy it.</p>
<h2>Government runnung scared</h2>
<p>The media may say: “if we have done wrong, then put us on trial”. The big problem with that argument is that, at present, we have a government that is so desperately afraid of the media that it will put national security interests to one side in order to appease them. </p>
<p>The line taken by Downing Street towards The Guardian and David Miranda’s computer (where the paper was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/31/footage-released-guardian-editors-snowden-hard-drives-gchq">allowed to physically destroy</a> the very evidence that could have been used to convict both parties) would be farcical if it were not so serious.</p>
<p>In the post-Snowden environment, our judiciary has been forced (if it upholds the Nicol ruling) to accept that we cannot rely on the media to act in the public interest in a matter of national security. That’s a desperate shame but who’s to blame? Best, of course, to have this trial only partly held in camera. </p>
<p>But as long as we remain a liberal democracy with a free judiciary, the second best is a trial wholly in camera. The worst outcome would be free two alleged terrorists so creating an appalling precedent with catastrophic consequences for the very democracy we need to secure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27766/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Glees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Tim Crook and I agree that, ideally, for justice to be done, it must be seen to be done. We also agree that the media should be free to publish within the law and that we are all better off without Levesonian…
Anthony Glees, Professor of Politics, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/24002
2014-03-05T06:09:59Z
2014-03-05T06:09:59Z
The curse of centenarians epitomise our fears about growing old
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43103/original/qk8tr25m-1393952616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C600%2C445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The glossy version.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Aurora_Greek_Goddess.jpg">National Museum of Capodimonte</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today we wish a very happy 116th birthday to Misao Okawa who was born in Japan in 1898, making her the world’s oldest person. When she was young, Einstein hadn’t yet grasped the mysteries of a relative universe, cars were becoming affordable and were thought as the saviour of horse-polluted cities and the telephone was the next big thing in communication. </p>
<p>More than a hundred years later, we oft cite Einstein’s famous equation of relativity without understanding it. Cars are tools of pollution and most cities tax their presence. And a great many people shun voice communications for instantaneous texts. A lot has changed in our understanding of the universe, technology and our morality over the past century. But when it comes to living longer lives, we seem to collectively forget some basic biology. </p>
<p>The media obsesses over the inevitable “secret” that centenarians (and super-centenarians, like Okawa, who live past 110) reveal as the reason for their exceptionally long life. In the case of Okawa, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/10670467/Worlds-oldest-person-celebrates-her-116th-birthday-Eat-and-sleep-and-you-will-live-a-long-time.html">lots of sushi</a> and eight hours sleep a day. Scientists study centenarians and their families to isolate the causes for longevity – so that we may be able to distribute it to everyone. </p>
<p>But centenarians are not the key to unlocking the mysteries of health and longevity – on the contrary, they epitomise our fears of growing old.</p>
<h2>Centenarians and Tithonus’ curse</h2>
<p>In Greek mythology, mortality was the distinguishing feature between gods and men; gods were immortal while men suffered from death (that, and the whims of the gods above them). In the story, Eos, the goddess of the dawn falls in love with a mortal man called Tithonus. Eos cannot bear the thought that Tithonus will die, so she asks Zeus to make him immortal, to which he agrees. The only problem is that she forgot to ask for eternal youth. Tithonus cannot die, but he progressively suffers from all the ill health and frailties of old age.</p>
<p>Centenarians are the living embodiment of Tithonus’ curse. Contrary to what the media would like to portray (and some studies), many centenarians <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11527481">suffer ill health</a> and frailty associated with old age, which <a href="http://ajgg.org/AJGG/V7N1/v7n1_SA7_PS%20Sachdev.pdf">can also affect</a> research. Most are wheelchair or bed-bound, many suffer <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ana.21915/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false">from dementia</a>, muscle loss, hearing loss, eyesight loss and lack control of their orifices. </p>
<p>When given the choice between healthy life and long life with ill health, most people choose the former. Centenarians are not a mystery of nature; they are old people who happen to <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11527481">suffer the damages</a> of ageing a bit longer than others.</p>
<h2>Mortality law and the lifestyle delusion</h2>
<p>Like the rest of us, centenarians are governed by the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz%E2%80%93Makeham_law_of_mortality">law of mortality</a>”, which simply states that no matter who you are or where you live the chances of you dying double every eight years.</p>
<p>This doubling of our mortality rate starts from the moment we are conceived until our inevitable demise. And with each eight-year period we accumulate more damage generated by the process of sustaining our life (our metabolism). Initially, during youth, the damage is limited and doesn’t affect our health and well-being but as we get older the damage starts to accumulate and our probability of dying from any given disease of ageing increases exponentially. </p>
<p>We certainly know how to increase our mortality rate by not using vaccines and antibiotics and by smoking. But unfortunately the converse is not true, we know of nothing that can reduce our rate of mortality. Lifestyle changes such as diet and exercise do not significantly reduce the mortality rate of a normal person.</p>
<p>Another way to think about this is to imagine we are all born with a certain number of chips that we can spend during life, and when the chips run out, we die. So in this thought experiment, I’m born with 2,048 chips while Anders is born with 8,192 chips. </p>
<p>Applying the law of mortality, we remove double the chips every eight years, so two chips go on my eighth birthday, four on my 16th, eight on my 24th and so on. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43105/original/wqpssfnx-1393953454.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Life chipping away.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/aidanmorgan/4388525466/">John-Morgan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I’ll die when I run out of chips on my 88th birthday, while Anders will be around until his 104th birthday. Although Anders is born with many more chips than me, in the later years of his life he uses ever more chips to remain alive. These chips are analogous to genetic inheritance. Centenarians are born with better genes which help them maintain their frail state a little bit longer compared to the average Briton <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN">who lives to about 80</a>. </p>
<p>By the time someone has reached 90 or 100 years of age, they will have accumulated a lot of damage as a by-product of their metabolism. Their biological systems teeter at the edge of systemic collapse and each additional year brings with it the probability that something will tip it over the edge. This may help explain the fact that although the total numbers of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24300051">centenarians are increasing</a>, the numbers of super-centenarians like Okawa have remained constant.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/43096/original/44b95rb6-1393946409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Male mortality in England and Wales over the last 160 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Avi Roy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Regenerative powers</h2>
<p>If we are to grow old and remain in good health, we have three options. We can try to improve our metabolism such that it generates less harmful byproducts or we can find a way to clean these up these byproducts. Or, we can deal with the consequences of this accumulation of damage over time. Medicine has mainly focused on the third option, dealing with the consequences of ageing disease such as dementia, cancer and diabetes. But though we may have added few years to our lives, we certainly haven’t added life to our years.</p>
<p>We have tried to understand how to improve our metabolism by studying longevity genes in worms – <a href="http://io9.com/scientists-engineer-worms-to-live-the-equivalent-of-50-1484318674">in one experiment</a>, increasing the life of nematode worms five times – rodents, and centenarians. But these studies rarely generate consistent results and we still do not know how to implement the finding in humans. Improving our metabolism to mimic those of long-lived mammals such as bowhead whales (thought to be <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=99422">the oldest living</a> mammal) is certainly an interesting avenue of research, but won’t be clinically useful for a very long time. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.eurostemcell.org/stem-cell-faq">field of regenerative medicine</a> is trying to hedge our bets. Instead of waiting until we can overhaul our metabolism, it aims to clean up the damage we accumulate in our cells, tissues, and organs. There are several current projects to grow organs from one’s own stem cells or even skin cells. There are patients around the world with trachea and cartilage replacements made using this technique. Soon, regenerative medicine will target therapies beyond organs and at the cellular level. If our cells are always in tip-top shape we may not need to replace our organs. </p>
<p>But as it currently stands, the best chance for you to reach 100 years of age, with all the baggage of that it comes with, is to <a href="http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/centenarians-have-plenty-of-bad-habits-too/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0">have parents and grandparents</a> who are centenarians. Sushi, sleep, a whisky a day is unlikely to make the difference besides improving life quality. But for our money, regenerative medicine will be what finally cures the old of the Tithonus curse, where we might live to ripe old ages but in much better health. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have no conflicting interests related to this topic (besides being subject to ageing).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Avi Roy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Today we wish a very happy 116th birthday to Misao Okawa who was born in Japan in 1898, making her the world’s oldest person. When she was young, Einstein hadn’t yet grasped the mysteries of a relative…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/23267
2014-02-24T05:54:03Z
2014-02-24T05:54:03Z
Predicting biological age in a flash … at least in worms
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/42220/original/kdksy9p6-1393003056.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C365%2C891%2C582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Glow-in-the-dark worm.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/thejcb/8044501165/">thejcb</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The complexity in biology is astounding. That is why biologists are thankful that model organisms, like the roundworm <em>Caenorhabditis elegans</em>, can be used to breakdown biological processes into simpler units.</p>
<p><em>C. elegans</em> is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/animals-in-research-c-elegans-roundworm-14163">particular favourite</a>. It grows in the exact same way from a single fertilised egg cell to 959 cells as an adult. Its body is transparent which has allowed scientists to map its growth and study internal changes to great detail. </p>
<p>In a paper published in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13012">Nature</a> recently, En-Zhi Shen at the National Institute of Biological Sciences in Beijing and colleagues have used <em>C. elegans</em> to make an intriguing discovery. Based on a process that occurs in each cell’s power house, mitochondria, they claim to be able to predict the lifespan of that organism.</p>
<p>In nature, electrons are found in pairs in orbit around the atom’s nucleus. A free radical is created when an atom has an unpaired electron whizzing around the nucleus. Inside mitochondria, there is formation of such free radicals called reactive oxygen species. </p>
<p>The mitochondria produces many types of reactive oxygen species (ROS) as by-products of the normal metabolic process, including superoxide, hydrogen peroxide, and nitric oxide. These free radicals propelled by their unpaired electrons seek to find other molecules in the cells from whom they can steal an electron and thereby damage them. Thus, free radicals can damage DNA and stop proteins and lipids from performing their functions in the cell. This process of stealing electrons from functional molecules by reactive oxygen species and its resulting damage is known as oxidative stress.</p>
<p>Shen thought that if they were able to measure the amount of oxidative stress in the worms they may be able to predict how long they would live. Shen had previously discovered that the mitochondria in cells produce sudden short bursts of free radicals which could be counted. </p>
<p>When Shen studied <em>C. elegans</em> with added proteins that glow in the dark because of oxidative stress, she could detect levels of oxidative stress by measuring the flashes of light, termed mitoflash, emitted by proteins which detect free-radicals produced by the mitochondria. The more mitoflashes that happen within a certain window of time, the higher the amount of free radicals produced by the mitochondria. </p>
<p>Using the mitoflash method, an individual worm can be observed during the entirety of its 21-day lifespan. These worms are at the peak of their reproductive ability during the second and third day of their lives. Soon after this, the worms start their steady decline towards old age and by about the fifteenth day most of them are considered old.</p>
<p>Shen discovered that there were two periods in the lifespan of the worm when oxidative stress increased. The first was around the third day, when the worms are laying their eggs and the other was around the fifteenth day when the worms were old. </p>
<p>They then compared these finding using other worms who were engineered to have longer or shorter lifespans. Consistently, they found that worms with low amounts of mitoflashes during the third day of their lives lived longer compared to worms with higher mitoflashes. Interestingly, the number of mitoflashes on ninth day was not predictive of lifespan. Shen, therefore, thinks that oxidative stress levels of a worm during early life can determine how long they can live.</p>
<h2>Telling age in a flash</h2>
<p>Shen’s work improves on previous worm studies by hinting that free radicals produced by mitochondria especially in early life may be a central mechanism driving the decline during ageing. </p>
<p>Also, the results of this study agree with the free radical theory of ageing, which assumes that the diseases of ageing result due to the increasing inability of cells to repair damage caused by oxidative stress. This theory predicts that organisms that have long lives must lower their oxidative stress by producing more antioxidants. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this doesn’t happen in real life. Human beings live much longer lives in spite of producing much less antioxidants compared to rats, hamsters, mice and rabbits. And studies involving dietary supplementation of <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/%7Eucbtdag/Wenner_2013.pdf">antioxidants</a> show an inverse relationship between antioxidant levels and <a href="http://summaries.cochrane.org/CD007176/antioxidant-supplements-for-prevention-of-mortality-in-healthy-participants-and-patients-with-various-diseases">life span</a>. The claim that oxidative stress in early life may be a predictor of lifespan may work in some worms but it will certainly be of no use in humans.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The complexity in biology is astounding. That is why biologists are thankful that model organisms, like the roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans, can be used to breakdown biological processes into simpler…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Sven Bulterijs, Postgraduate researcher, Yale University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/21902
2014-01-15T06:43:36Z
2014-01-15T06:43:36Z
Hard Evidence: is the UK car market booming?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/39049/original/7fd8nwv9-1389718557.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are plenty of new cars on British roads, but few of them are made here.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Martin Rickett/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Registrations in the UK new car market <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25632668">rose 10.8% to 2.26 million units</a> in 2013, the highest point for six years. But let’s not get too carried away: while last year’s figures may be exceptional, they also come highly qualified.</p>
<p>New car volumes are still some way short of the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3374865.stm">record levels</a> of the early 2000s, while the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ <a href="http://www.smmt.co.uk/2014/01/2013-new-car-market-records-best-performance-five-years/">modest forecasts</a> suggest we may have been through a bit of a purple patch post-2008. After a big rally this year, only small gains are predicted for 2014 and 2015.</p>
<p>I have used the word “registrations” rather than new car “sales”. It is widely accepted that franchised dealers and vehicle manufacturers may have self-registered significant volumes of cars which may ultimately be sold as nearly new used cars. This strategy has let manufacturers import significant numbers of cars from under-utilised plants in Europe and elsewhere, boosting market volumes with the aid of exceptional prices and discounts and finance deals. The chart below shows how few cars registered in the United Kingdom are actually made here.</p>
<iframe src="https://e.infogr.am/chart-26757699484" width="100%" height="576" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none;"></iframe>
<p>Quite simply, the cars we love to own and drive are largely imported, and yet the United Kingdom still has a successful, internationally owned vehicle manufacturing and assembly industry. Vehicles assembled in the United Kingdom are made primarily for export, largely to Europe, and have a somewhat higher price tag than the units imported.</p>
<p>The next chart compares the average values of imported new cars and exported ones. This differential might well be expected to grow as the Jaguar Land River brand is ramped up for export.</p>
<iframe src="https://e.infogr.am/average-new-car-value-by-source" width="100%" height="644" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none;"></iframe>
<p>The UK new car market has been in the doldrums during the economic recession, and as would-be buyers regain confidence, so the market is showing signs of picking up. However, this is partly down to factors that came into play during the recession, and which in some cases no longer apply. </p>
<p>For instance, many cars were bought at low cost in 2009-10 as part of the <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1672806/Car-scrappage-scheme-How-does-it-work.html">scrappage scheme</a>. Typically these cars were small and lower priced; this is reflected in the above chart’s number for 2009, which shows the scheme’s impact on the average price of imports. As was reported at the time, many of these subsidised units were <a href="http://www.experianautomotive.co.uk/en/Latest-News/2009/June/Scrappage_%20Scheme_Statistics.aspx">bought by retired people</a> whose savings were attracting little or even negative interest rates in real terms. However, many of them may yet be retained for a longer period than normal, or until those owners stop driving, because of their extended warranty and low prices.</p>
<p>But despite the scrappage scheme’s aim of getting older cars off the roads, the average age of cars in the United Kingdom is far greater than many would expect. The next chart shows that at the height of the economic boom, the average age was at its lowest – but also that it has since crept up steadily as the recession has bitten. Even with the return of higher registrations, it will be some time before the average age of cars on the country’s roads starts to return to the old profile.</p>
<iframe src="https://e.infogr.am/average-uk-car-age-2000-2015" width="100%" height="572" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none;"></iframe>
<p>The implications of this ageing pattern should not be underestimated. However well they are maintained, older units tend to have <a href="http://www.smmt.co.uk/co2report/">higher emissions</a> than newer models, and the new generation of cars is showing significantly better economic fuel consumption than older units.</p>
<p>The apparently buoyant UK car market therefore has a flip side, in that the number of used cars sold each year is perhaps three times the new car figure: for instance, 6,743,080 <a href="http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/Used-Car-Sales-2013-Q2.pdf">used cars</a> were sold in 2012, against 2.04 million new car registrations. A new car is just an aspiration for many drivers, who end up buying a good-quality used car rather than a new one for reasons of price or space. For whatever reason, there has been a significant shortage of younger used cars reaching the market in recent years as new car volumes tumbled. This, is turn, is reflected in higher prices.</p>
<h2>Playing catch-up</h2>
<p>And the future? The UK car market is still in a period of catch-up, with private buyers taking advantage of exceptional new car prices and the associated very attractive finance packages. Fleet operators, meanwhile, work to economic replacement cycles rather than the short-term market climate.</p>
<p>What remains is the question of how long this catch-up period will last. Looking at the data over the years, we can assume there is probably a natural demand of between perhaps 2.0 and 2.25 million new cars per year in the UK. Sales above those figures may require a substantial additional effort. Given a gradual recovery of new car sales elsewhere in Europe, vehicle manufacturers may seek to redirect their marketing efforts (and associated finance packages) to other major markets.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/hard-evidence">Hard Evidence</a> is a series of articles in which academics use research evidence to tackle the trickiest public policy questions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Cooke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Registrations in the UK new car market rose 10.8% to 2.26 million units in 2013, the highest point for six years. But let’s not get too carried away: while last year’s figures may be exceptional, they…
Peter Cooke, Professor of Automotive Management, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/21130
2013-12-05T14:39:45Z
2013-12-05T14:39:45Z
The seven deadly sins of health and science reporting
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36950/original/y27bydsh-1386178021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C170%2C685%2C478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Who said there was no elixir of youth?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kelly B</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Benjamin Franklin said two things are certain in life: death and taxes. Another one we could add to this list is that on any given news website and in almost all print media there will be articles about health and nutrition that are complete garbage.</p>
<p>Some articles that run under the health and nutrition “news” heading are thought provoking, well researched and unbiased, but unfortunately not all. And to help you traverse this maze – alongside an <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/policy-twenty-tips-for-interpreting-scientific-claims-1.14183">excellent article</a> about 20 tips for interpreting scientific claims – we will look at seven clichés of improper or misguided reporting.</p>
<p>If you spot any of these clichés in an article, we humbly suggest that you switch to reading <a href="http://icanhas.cheezburger.com/lolcats">LOLCats</a>, which will be more entertaining and maybe more informative too.</p>
<hr>
<h2>1. “Scientists have proven that” or “it has been scientifically proven that”</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: In science we never prove something, we can only improve our confidence in a hypothesis or find flaws with it.</p>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: Sometimes it is possible to disprove something confidently, but that mainly works in domains like physics. Medicine is notoriously messy because it deals with changeable, complex and individual bodies. There are potential exceptions to nearly anything, and the link between two things is generally statistical, rather than clear-cut “if X then Y” relationships. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36925/original/bzggqd4s-1386159686.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OMG they’ve done what?!</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ninja M</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Health and nutrition is even worse because it deals with how we interact with our equally messy environment. We know about most of the big contributory causes of bad health such as starvation, disease, parasites and poisoning so arguably many new findings are smaller refinements that are hard to pick out from the “noise” of individual variation and habits. We know plenty of things, just beware of absolute certainty.</p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: Discount the findings of any health or nutrition article with “<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7896385/Scientists-prove-that-women-are-better-at-multitasking-than-men.html">scientists prove that</a>…” by 80%.</p>
<h2>2. X causes cancer, so it must be bad</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: There are no good or bad substances. Even <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=strange-but-true-drinking-too-much-water-can-kill">water can kill</a> you if you drink too much of it.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36926/original/ppnhrt4k-1386160021.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nutmeg: spice and poison.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marxfoods</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: There are <a href="http://dailymailoncology.tumblr.com/">a surprising number</a> of things associated with slightly increased or decreased risks of getting cancer. We tend to think of things as pure/good/healthy or impure/evil/harmful, but in practice there’s no distinction. Many medications are poisonous, but they are helpful because they are more poisonous to infections or cancer cells than to the rest of the body. </p>
<p>Sometimes it’s the dose that makes the poison. So sleeping a lot <em>or</em> a little <a href="http://www.journalsleep.org/viewabstract.aspx?pid=27780">is associated</a> with higher mortality (even when you control for depression and sickness, which of course also affect how much you want or can sleep). There can also be trade-offs between risks and benefits. Moderate alcohol intake <a href="http://www.bhf.org.uk/heart-health/preventing-heart-disease/alcohol.aspx">can be good</a> for heart health (in middle aged men, at least), but it increases the risk of pancreatic cancer and accidents. Whether something is good for you may depend on who you are, what you do and other risk factors.</p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: As Oscar Wilde said, “everything in moderation, including moderation”; it is probably better to eat a diverse diet than to try to only eat “good” things.</p>
<h2>3. [Insert natural product, spice or beverage here] cures cancer, diabetes or heart disease</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: There are no “natural” or magic cures for cancer, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-mercola/cinnamon-diabetes-_b_839487.html">diabetes</a> or any diseases of ageing.</p>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: If these “<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-4954/Is-garlic-cure-all.html">natural products</a>” actually worked, people consuming them would rarely, if ever, get the diseases of old age and die. The longest mean health and life spans of any sizeable population are in developed countries, and they are mainly attributable to antibiotics, vaccinations, reduction in smoking, improved sanitation, and public healthcare infrastructure. We don’t have artificial “silver bullets” either. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36952/original/cwxm3zw6-1386178460.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Enough said.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nico Paix</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The reason is that most of these conditions are very complex and don’t have neat causes that can be fixed easily. Science is certainly working hard on the problem, but progress is generally piecemeal.</p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: We already have many drugs that were extracted from natural things or are based on them. When the <a href="http://www.cochrane.org/about-us">Cochrane collaboration</a>, an international network of thousands of researchers and organisations, compiles the results of large human trials involving natural products, then it is time to take notice. </p>
<h2>4. X gene causes you to smile/be grumpy/get diabetes</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: No single gene causes a behaviour trait or, except in rare cases, a complex disease.</p>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: When a single gene mutation causes something, we call it a monogenic disease. Monogenic diseases include cystic fibrosis, Huntington’s disease and sickle-cell anemia. Complex behavioural traits and diseases of ageing are polygenic and multi-factorial disorders, which depend on both genes and environment. No <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/shyness-gene-brought-out-into-open/">one gene</a> causes you to be happy, sad or diabetic.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36927/original/z7xpmwn7-1386160397.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sad case of personality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">aeu04117</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same applies for brain areas and neurotransmitters: serotonin is involved in mood regulation, but it is also involved in regulating gut movement (<a href="http://themedicalbiochemistrypage.org/nerves.html#5ht">90% of it</a> is in the intestines). Adding more serotonin is unlikely to help either function. If you get happy by eating chocolate, it could be because you enjoy the taste and may not be due to chemical reactions within the brain. </p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: If you truly want to find reasons for your traits or propensity towards a complex disease, why not compile a detailed family history?</p>
<h2>5. <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2329152/Red-wine-helps-live-longer-energetic-lives-thanks-miracle-ingredient-claims-study.html">Red wine</a>, turmeric or yoga can help you live longer and be healthier</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: Unfortunately, there is no fountain of youth or elixir of life.</p>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: Articles that state eating something or doing something can help you live longer generally make their case using a long-lived or comparatively healthy population <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/9/ogawa.pdf">such as Japan</a>. In these populations, the effects of eating or doing something can be explained by their homogenous genetics and environment. Even so, these people still live the normal maximum human lifespan, which is about 100 years.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37023/original/73qnyst9-1386235989.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">So innocent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Public domain photos</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Science has figured out a lot about how ageing works, and some researchers work <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/02/21/drugs-to-slow-aging-are-a-matter-of-when-not-if/">on slowing it down</a>. However, there is still a vast step from what works on a small lab animal to a useful pill for humans. Stay tuned.</p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: If you want to <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-want-to-live-longer-do-nothing-14134">live longer</a>, don’t smoke, take recommended vaccinations, exercise and just <a href="https://theconversation.com/rumination-and-remedy-five-ways-to-improve-your-outlook-19527">try to enjoy</a> life.</p>
<h2>6. A new study from [insert elite university name here] …</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: Science, unlike religion, doesn’t work based on authority. Don’t assume that an experiment is well constructed and executed because it’s from an elite university.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36953/original/83wnyycw-1386179293.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Better croquet doesn’t mean better science.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Spartacus</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: Less elite universities can of course do bad research but “brand names” apply in academia as they do elsewhere. Some universities have or can afford bigger press teams than others. Journalists are trained to provide accurate, nuanced and unbiased analyses to the public. This is regularly practised in the political domain with reports on political scandals and other investigative journalism. We <a href="http://xkcd.com/1295/">need the same</a> for science. </p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: Would you still read this article if the research was performed at the University of Never-heard-of-them in Where-in-the-world-is-this city?</p>
<h2>7. Just-so stories</h2>
<p><strong>Why?</strong>: In science, laboratory results seldom make simple stories. This is especially true when dealing with biology.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/36951/original/db7hfrvr-1386178292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not 200,000 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ell Brown</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Details</strong>: It’s easy to believe a good story, such as how diet habits like those of your ancient ancestors are healthier for you or that women think in a certain way because they were gatherers rather than hunters. It sounds plausible. Unfortunately, sounding plausible often has almost nothing to do with actually being true.</p>
<p><strong>Takeaway</strong>: If you come across a neat little just-so story, it is likely over-simplified and stripped of its contextual underpinning, or just plain wrong.</p>
<hr>
<p>Our aim isn’t to undermine the value of science but to become more critical reporters and readers. The list is by no means exhaustive and if you feel we have missed an important cliché, please comment below, email or tweet us. In the meantime remember, if you want to live longer, have fun and <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-want-to-live-longer-do-nothing-14134">do nothing</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Benjamin Franklin said two things are certain in life: death and taxes. Another one we could add to this list is that on any given news website and in almost all print media there will be articles about…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/20937
2013-12-02T13:51:17Z
2013-12-02T13:51:17Z
Ageing cells reveal features of cancer
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/36555/original/tktrxhgw-1385742107.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cancer disproportionately affects the old.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">lnmurrey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The older we get, the higher our risk of cancer. With age, we accumulate exposure to environments and chemicals that increase the risk of acquiring cancer-causing mutations. But the danger doesn’t increase in a linear manner, and we <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/clpt.2012.193">know little</a> about why there is such a dramatic increase with ageing.</p>
<p>Accumulated damage isn’t the only thing going on as we age. The body’s cells also go through a process called senescence. Chief among the changes that come with senescence are alterations to the epigenome, the proteins and chemical modifications that are attached to our DNA. These epigenetic changes can influence which genes are active in different tissues.</p>
<p>During this phase of a human cell’s life, the changes are an attempt to shutdown the process of cell division. Cell division involves creating copies of chromosomes and distributing them into two identical copies of the parent cell. But cells that go senescent must stop multiplying.</p>
<p>Cancer cells manage to bypass the mechanisms that stop them multiplying, including those put in place during senescence.</p>
<p>In the new study, published in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncb2879">Nature Cell Biology</a>, Peter Adams at the University of Glasgow followed the ageing process in fibroblasts, which are cells that form connective tissue. </p>
<p>Adams and his colleague found that ageing cells have less control over their epigenome leading to widespread changes in DNA. Many sections of the genome, which were supposed to be under the control of DNA methyltransferase (DNMT1), end up with fewer methyl groups than would be expected. While some sections, known as CpG islands, get more methyl groups. It was surprising that comparison of these epigenetic changes with those found in cancer cells showed many similarities.</p>
<p>According to co-author of the study Richard Meehan, a researcher at the University of Edinburgh’s Human Genetics Unit, the study shows that ageing cells have some of the same features as cancer. “But we must be careful about interpreting the results,” he said. The study involved looking at human cells in Petri dishes, so the experiments must be repeated in animals and then humans before we can draw firm conclusions.</p>
<p>If the study stands that test, however, then we will have a strong hint of why ageing increases our risk of cancer and better understanding of the ageing process. “I don’t know if the results will help us fight cancer, but if I am able to delay the ageing of my fibroblasts, one thing’s for sure: I’ll look a hell of a lot better when I’m older,” Meehan said.</p>
<p>Avi Roy, a researcher at the University of Buckingham, has also worked on the senescence of cells. He said, “What they have done is not completely new, but it is a big piece of work. And they have a lot of evidence to back up their claim.” Roy agrees with Meehan and warns that any conclusions about revealing how cancer works based on this work would be premature.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7372/full/nature10600.html">2011 study</a> points to the difficulty of drawing wider conclusions. In the study researchers removed a particular kind of senescent cell from ageing mice. They found that in these mice many of the age-related diseases, such as cataracts, were delayed. “But the mice didn’t have their life extended. They died of either cardiac arrests or cancer,” Roy said. Much remains to be understood about how ageing causes cancer, and with the latest study from Adams and Meehan we take a few steps closer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The older we get, the higher our risk of cancer. With age, we accumulate exposure to environments and chemicals that increase the risk of acquiring cancer-causing mutations. But the danger doesn’t increase…
Akshat Rathi, Former Science and Data Editor, The Conversation
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/20571
2013-11-21T06:16:15Z
2013-11-21T06:16:15Z
Do Finnish men age faster when unemployed?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35715/original/tmd9jnhy-1384971547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Use-by dates: human chromosomes with their telomeres highlighted.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Men who are unemployed for more than two years show signs of faster ageing in their DNA, according to <a href="http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0080094">a study</a> published today in the journal PLOS ONE. </p>
<p>Researchers at the University of Oulu, Finland and Imperial College, London arrived at this conclusion by studying blood samples collected from 5,620 men and women born in Northern Finland in 1966. The researchers measured the lengths of telomeres in their white blood cells, and compared them with the participants’ employment history for the prior three years, and found that extended unemployment (more than 500 days in three years) was associated with shorter telomere length. </p>
<p><a href="http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/traits/telomeres/">Telomeres</a> are repetitive DNA sequences at the ends of chromosomes, which protect the chromosomes from degrading. With every cell division, it appears that these telomeres get shorter. And the result of each shortening is that these cells degrade and age. </p>
<p>When cells are grown in a lab, their telomeres do indeed shorten each time the cells divide. This process can be used to find a cell’s “expiry date”, a prediction of when that cell will run out of telomeres and stop dividing. However, this does not seem to relate to the actual health of the cells.</p>
<p>In the new study, the researchers found that that on average, men who had been unemployed for more than two of the preceding three years were more than twice as likely to have short telomeres compared to men who were continuously employed. In women, there was no association between unemployment status and telomere length. </p>
<p>The researchers accounted for telomere length differences resulting from medical conditions, obesity, socio-economic status and early childhood environment. </p>
<p>Previous studies, noted by the study authors, have found a correlation between shorter telomeres and higher rates of age-related diseases like <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Diabetes-type2/Pages/Introduction.aspx">Type 2 diabetes</a> and <a href="http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/traits/telomeres/">heart disease</a>. The authors conclude that the reduction in these men’s telomeres may have been the result from the stress of long-term unemployment, adding to evidence of a direct connection between prolonged unemployment and poor health.</p>
<h2>An abstract concept</h2>
<p>Employment is something very abstract; an employed and unemployed body are apparently more or less the same. So it might seem surprising that such an abstract thing as employment can affect a body on the cellular level. But the same is true for how stimuli affect our brains: remote objects trigger electrochemical cascades in our visual system – and when we learn new things, gene expression in the brain changes. We are interactive creatures, with innumerable stimuli that are constantly shaping multiple processes in our bodies. In this sense, the hypothesis that employment experience has cellular effects is not surprising.</p>
<p>This was an association study, which means than under certain set of circumstances two variables are [statistically linked](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_(statistics). This study is therefore incapable of genuinely predicting whether unemployment is the cause, and short telomeres the effect. Perhaps the opposite is true: maybe people whose cells lose their telomeres also lose their jobs. More likely, an outside factor that shortens telomeres could have a limiting effect on success in the labour market. For example, such a factor might somehow contribute towards illness or pessimism. </p>
<p>Additionally, because the study was conducted in an isolated and genetically quite homogeneous population, the results of the study may be due to their genetic make-up as well as (or instead of) environmental effects. </p>
<p>In the end, we do not need a genetic study to know long-term unemployment is bad for people socially, medically and psychologically; there is plenty of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8724235">evidence</a> for that. Additionally, the bio-gerontology community (those who study the biological processes of ageing) recognises telomere attrition as one of the <a href="http://www.medicaldaily.com/scientists-have-identified-9-signs-aging-which-ones-are-affecting-you-246567">nine causes</a> of the disease of ageing, including Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. </p>
<p>Where this study does make a significant contribution is in recognising long-term, low-level stress as a major problem. In momentarily stressful situations, the instant fight-or-flight response stimulates us; but being under pressure for a long time with no relief wears us down. Prolonged stress is bad for memory and health, and could quite conceivably shorten telomeres – making an unemployed person significantly more unhealthy, with the effects persisting even after they get a job. </p>
<p>In the long run, what we really need to learn to slow or stop the ageing process is how to reduce or repair the damage done by stress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Men who are unemployed for more than two years show signs of faster ageing in their DNA, according to a study published today in the journal PLOS ONE. Researchers at the University of Oulu, Finland and…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/19129
2013-10-14T05:34:35Z
2013-10-14T05:34:35Z
Guardian playing foolish game with British national security
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32906/original/d5nrm6qf-1381599561.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Security risk: the intelligence community has savaged The Guardian for its coverage of NSA and GCHQ.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Oregon Herald</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Only a complete fool could still deny that Edward Snowden’s revelations have damaged our national security and the security of the West more broadly. Apart from providing details of actual intelligence operations – and thereby suggesting how best to hide from them, both the Russians and the Chinese now have his data, or better our secrets, and will be subjecting it to the most assiduous analysis. </p>
<p>Small wonder that many of the major players in Britain’s security and intelligence community have spoken with one voice to <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2450237/MI5-chief-Andrew-Parke-The-Guardian-handed-gift-terrorists.html">condemn The Guardian</a>. But such a massive level of official and expert anger shows that the impact of the Snowden affair may be even more devastating to this country but in a different way.</p>
<p>When Sir David Omand (the father of British counter-terrorism policy) <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24486649">suggests</a> Snowden has done more harm to the UK than the Soviet moles, he amplifies the tough message from the head of the Security Service, MI5, Andrew Parker.</p>
<p>Although Parker didn’t mention either Snowden or The Guardian by name, but no one could doubt he was speaking of them <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/09/mi5-gchq-surveillance-analysis">when he said</a>: “Making public the reach and limits of GCHQ techniques…hands the advantage to terrorists. It is the gift they need to evade us and strike at will.”</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32907/original/7dcpb6xc-1381599734.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intellience hub: GCHQ headquarters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Barry Batchelor/PA Wire</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Alerting us to the “several thousand Islamists here who see the British people as a legitimate target”, he virtually begged the public to give MI5 and GCHQ the new laws that are needed: “We cannot work without tools” he said or “let shifts in technology erode our capabilities”.</p>
<h2>Security at stake</h2>
<p>On one level, what is at stake here is the future effectiveness of our intelligence community (of which gaining public trust in what is does in the nation’s name is a central part). On another level, however the issue, and how it is resolved, will determine what sort of country post-Snowden Britain will become.</p>
<p>Currently we (not least our rulers) see ourselves as a global power, with global interests and a global reach to protect them. In large part this position of power (and our global reach to exercise it) stems from three facts of British life, each directly connected in purpose to the other: our nuclear deterrent capability, our armed forces and our secret intelligence community.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=937&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32908/original/wny2g98n-1381599806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1178&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Story in ‘national interest’: Alan Rusbridger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Ian West/PA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet what gives us our critical mass as a power is one single, overarchingly important reality: our intense and intimate security relationship with the US. Intelligence cooperation is its throbbing heart.</p>
<p>The might and weight of British intelligence, particularly of GCHQ, comes directly from the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23053691">intelligence-sharing agreements</a> we have with the NSA. It is no coincidence that the core security relationship we have with the US is the relationship between the NSA and GCHQ. The British government rightly calls it “unparalleled”. The 1946 “<a href="http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukusa/">UKUSA</a>” agreement which gives the UK unique access to American intelligence was negotiated by British and American codebreakers who had worked together on electronic interception at Bletchley Park during the Second World War.</p>
<p>If our intelligence community ceases to be effective, or can no longer be trusted to deliver, our security ties to the US will be cut. It will follow as night follows day. The moment the UKUSA agreement is torn up will be the moment we cease to be a global power with global reach. Some would argue there could be few things better. It would certainly be a fitting memorial to Snowden and The Guardian.</p>
<p>But in a world where Britain continues to be in the target of terrorists and extremists and organised criminals and sex and drug traffickers, all of whom operate a global level against us, and in a world where British values are still more decent and more needed than we often believe, we would, without UKUSA at a stroke be rendered blind and deaf, incapable of protecting ourselves and powerless to do good.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Glees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Only a complete fool could still deny that Edward Snowden’s revelations have damaged our national security and the security of the West more broadly. Apart from providing details of actual intelligence…
Anthony Glees, Professor of Politics, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/16092
2013-08-05T05:34:48Z
2013-08-05T05:34:48Z
Meat grown in labs is the next logical step for food production
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27756/original/bs32rsqd-1374235966.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Concerns about meat causing harm to animals and environment could be a thing of the past.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fabrice de Nola</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his essay “<a href="http://rolandanderson.se/Winston_Churchill/Fifty_Years_Hence.php">Fifty Years Hence</a>”, Winston Churchill speculated, “We shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium.”</p>
<p>At an event in London today, the first hamburger made entirely from meat grown through cell culture will be cooked and consumed before a live audience. In June at the <a href="http://conferences.ted.com/TEDGlobal2013/program/guide.php">TED Global conference</a> in Edinburgh, Andras Forgacs took a step even beyond Churchill’s hopes. He <a href="http://blog.tedmed.com/?tag=andras-forgacs">unveiled</a> the world’s first leather made from cells grown in the lab. </p>
<p>These are historic events. Ones that will change the discussion about lab-grown meat from blue-skies science to a potential consumer product which may soon be found on supermarket shelves and retail stores. And while some may perceive this development as a drastic shake-up in the world of agriculture, it really is part of the trajectory that agricultural technology is already following.</p>
<h2>Creating abundance</h2>
<p>While modern humans have been around for 160,000 years or so, agriculture only developed about 10,000 years ago, probably helping the human population to grow. A stable food source had tremendous impact on the development of our species and culture, as the time and effort once put towards foraging could now be put towards intellectual achievement and the development of our civilisation.</p>
<p>In recent history though, agricultural technology has developed with the goal of securing food supply. We have been using greenhouses to control the environment where crops grow. We use pesticides, fertilisers and genetic techniques to control and optimise output. We have created efficiencies in plant cultivation to produce more plants that yield more food than ever before.</p>
<p>These patterns in horticulture can be seen in animal husbandry too. From hunting to raising animals for slaughter and from factory farming to the use of antibiotics, hormones and genetic techniques, meat production today is so efficient that we grow more bigger animals faster than ever before. In 2012, the global herd has reached <a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/animalwelfare/GlobalWarningExecutiveSummary1.pdf">60 billion</a> land animals to feed 7 billion people.</p>
<h2>The trouble with meat</h2>
<p>Now, civilisation has come to a point where we are recognising that there are serious problems with the way we produce food. This mass produced food contributes towards our <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(07%2961256-2/abstract),%20challenges%20food%20safety,%20%5Bravages%20the%20environment%5D(http://www.ifr.ac.uk/waste/Reports/DEFRA-Environmental%20Impacts%20of%20Food%20Production%20%20Consumption.pdf">disease burden</a>, and plays a major role in deforestation and loss of biodiversity. For meat production, in particular, manipulating animals has led to an epidemic of viruses, resistant bacteria and food-borne illness, apart from animal welfare issues.</p>
<p>But we may be seeing change brought by consumer demand. The public has started caring about the ethical, environmental and health impacts of food production. And beyond consumer demand for thoughtful products, ecological limits are forcing us to evaluate the way food is produced.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM">damning report</a> by the United Nations shows that today livestock raised for meat uses more than 80% of Earth’s agricultural land and 27% of Earth’s potable water supply. It produces 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions and the massive quantities of manure produced heavily pollute water. Deforestation and degradation of wildlife habitats happens largely in part to create feed crops, and factory farming conditions are breeding grounds for dangerous disease.</p>
<p>Making everyone on the planet take up vegetarianism is not an option. While there is much merit to reducing (and rejecting) meat consumption, sustainable dietary changes in the Western world will be more than compensated for by the meat intake of the growing middle class in developing countries like China and India.</p>
<h2>The future is cultured</h2>
<p>The logical step in the evolution of humanity’s food production capacity is to make meat from cells, rather than animals. After all, the meat we consume is simply a collection of tissues. So why should we grow the whole animals when we can only grow the part that we eat?</p>
<p>By doing this we avoid slaughter, animal welfare issues, disease development. This method, if commercialised, is also more sustainable. Animals do not have to be raised from birth, and no resources are shunted towards non-meat tissues. Compared to conventionally grown meat, <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es200130u">cultured meat</a> would require up to 99% less land, 96% less water, 45% less energy, and produce up to 96% less greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Also even without modern scientific tools, for hundreds of years we have been using bacterial cells, yeast and fungus for food purposes. With recent advances in tissue engineering, culturing mammalian cells for meat production seems like a sensible advancement.</p>
<p>Efficiency has been the primary driver of agricultural developments in the past. Now, it should be health, environment and ethics. We need for cultured meat to go beyond the proof of concept. We need it to be on supermarket shelves soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Avi Roy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
In his essay “Fifty Years Hence”, Winston Churchill speculated, “We shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/15900
2013-07-15T13:37:13Z
2013-07-15T13:37:13Z
It’s advantage Scotland when it comes to wind power
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27417/original/jqm8dhn4-1373796104.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's more wind in Scotland than in England, and not just in the pipes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danny Lawson/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A frequent claim heard is that the UK is Europe’s windiest country. This is a partial truth; Scotland is the windiest country, whereas England is far from the windiest.</p>
<p>To see the truth of this one need only consider the performance of onshore wind energy developments. Here, the measure of their efficacy is called the capacity or load factor. In Scotland the rolling annual average is almost 30%. In England it is 23.5%. For the UK overall it is 26.5%, dragged down by England. So official UK planning guidance (<a href="http://www.planning-applications.co.uk/pps22_renewableenergy.pdf">Planning Policy Statement 22</a>) is wrong to claim the UK average is 30%, as are other claims between 20% to 50%. </p>
<p>In 2010 nearly two-thirds of England’s onshore wind farms <a href="https://restats.decc.gov.uk/cms/annual-variation-in-wind-load-factor/">failed to achieve</a> 20% load. In 2009 and 2011 about one-third of developments in England failed to make 20%. In England in 2010, which was not a windy year, the average performance was only 18.7%. In Scotland only a quarter of developments failed to reach a capacity factor of 20% in 2010, and only about 10% fell below that level in 2009 and 2011.</p>
<p>As some involved in wind energy developments would admit, not all Scottish schemes have been well located in relation to the local wind resource. But the record is far better than in England. Even in a relatively windy area of England – Cumbria – two schemes placed 2.3 kilometres apart have performed very differently. <a href="http://www.variablepitch.co.uk/stations/411/">Lowca</a> has achieved a rolling capacity factor of 29.5%, whereas nearby <a href="http://www.variablepitch.co.uk/stations/1392/">Siddick</a> has only achieved 19.4%. These figures, by the way, are provided by the wind energy developers themselves.</p>
<p>But even more infuriating has been the deluge of wind energy development proposals in Central England and East Anglia where mean wind speeds are low. Apart from visual impact and loss of property value there has been a serious misallocation of resources. Wind turbines and their ancillary equipment are mostly produced abroad (about 80% on average), involve exploitation of some rare materials, and if carbon emissions were calculated on a national consumption basis would have an even poorer claim to avert carbon emissions than developers usually claim.</p>
<p>On top of all this, population density in England is about 408 people per square kilometre, contrasted with Scotland’s 65. Although population density is only a very rough indicator of population distribution, the contrast should serve as a warning signal to developers, planners, and policymakers alike. It does not seem to have done so over the past 20 years.</p>
<p>Scotland, of course, has a far better hydropower resource base than England (outside the Lake District), and also a considerable potential for pumped storage for back-up to the intermittency of wind power. David MacKay in his book: <a href="http://www.withouthotair.com/">Sustainable Energy – without the hot air</a>, identified 13 Scottish lochs with large potential for pumped storage.</p>
<p>Scotland also has enviable potential for tidal stream and wave power to produce electricity. There are those who would like to build estuarine barrages from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-untapped-potential-of-our-tides-14943">Severn</a> to the Solway Firth. People have been on about this since 1849. But the impact on over-wintering and migratory birds would be catastrophic, as they would be unable to access the invertebrates they need from mudflats. Only the Severn would produce a significant volume of electricity (though probably only about half the 5% of current annual UK electricity demand claimed). Tidal stream has the further cost and resource-input advantage that it does not require dams to be built.</p>
<p>The real concern is the visual impact major onshore wind energy developments may have on the beautiful Scottish landscape. As someone who has climbed many Munros, spent fascinating times in and around bothies in the snow-bound <a href="http://cairngorms.co.uk/">Cairngorms</a>, and walked across <a href="http://www.perthshire.co.uk/index.asp?pg=356">Rannoch Moor</a> on the wettest day for 70 years, this is a worry for me. But then so also are the planning decisions in England which permit the simple <a href="http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/04/13/biofuel-power-stations-take-heat-for-burning-palm-oil-for-electricity/">burning of palm oil</a> in electricity-generating plants, claims from planning inspectors that wind energy developments can achieve 100% capacity factors, and other evidence of a shambolic state of affairs.</p>
<p>In reality the UK authorities are banking on institutions having their own back-up generating capacity, plus combined heat-and-power and gas-fired generation, which rely upon fossil fuels in the short-term to offset the risk of the lights going off. Attempted back-stops all too familiar in developing countries.</p>
<p>Scotland has very clear advantages over England in onshore wind, hydro, pumped storage, and tidal stream resources - all should be tapped for the UK to meet it’s target of generating 15% of its energy and 30% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. The best achieved so far is 4% of primary energy supply and (in one quarter in 2012) 11.2% of its electricity.</p>
<p>The reality is that the UK imported <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/02/preliminary-uk-energy-stats-show-big-jump-in-coal-fired-electricity">24% more coal</a> last year than in 2011 (the highest since 2006) as US shale gas drove down its coal export prices. That a world of renewable energy will come this century seems a very forlorn hope, if the poorly focused policies and investments in the UK (not least in England) are replicated elsewhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Jefferson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
A frequent claim heard is that the UK is Europe’s windiest country. This is a partial truth; Scotland is the windiest country, whereas England is far from the windiest. To see the truth of this one need…
Michael Jefferson, Visiting Professor of Economics and International Studies, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/14911
2013-06-03T13:41:28Z
2013-06-03T13:41:28Z
Lust for life: breaking the 120-year barrier in human ageing
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24954/original/5yvrs63c-1370265555.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=331%2C101%2C1545%2C1045&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">I'm 110 and still going strong.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nuno Cruz</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In rich countries, more than 80% of the population today will survive past the age of 70. About 150 years ago, <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-want-to-live-longer-do-nothing-14134">only 20% did</a>. In all this while, though, only one person lived beyond the age of 120. This has led experts to believe that there may be a limit to how long humans can live.</p>
<p>Animals display an astounding variety of maximum lifespan ranging from mayflies and gastrotrichs, which live for 2 to 3 days, to giant tortoises and bowhead whales, which can live to 200 years. The record for the <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2007/10/071029-oldest-clam.html">longest living animal</a> belongs to the quahog clam, which can live for more than 400 years.</p>
<p>If we look beyond the animal kingdom, among plants the giant sequoia lives past <a href="http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/mg.htm">3000 years</a>, and bristlecone pines reach <a href="http://www.nps.gov/grba/planyourvisit/identifying-bristlecone-pines.htm">5000 years</a>. The record for the longest living plant belongs to the Mediterranean tapeweed, which has been found in a flourishing colony estimated at <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21433-patch-of-seagrass-is-worlds-oldest-living-organism.html">100,000 years</a> old.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24953/original/kxb48k2p-1370265221.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This jellyfish never dies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael W. May</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some animals like the <a href="http://www.biochem.uci.edu/Steele/PDFs/Hydra_senescence_paper.pdf">hydra</a> and a species of <a href="http://9e.devbio.com/preview_article.php?ch=2&id=6">jellyfish</a> may have found ways to cheat death, but further research is needed to validate this. </p>
<p>The natural laws of physics may dictate that most things must die. But that does not mean we cannot use nature’s templates to extend healthy human lifespan beyond 120 years.</p>
<h2>Putting a lid on the can</h2>
<p>Gerontologist Leonard Hayflick at the University of California thinks that humans have a definite expiry date. In 1961, he showed that human skin cells grown under laboratory conditions tend to divide approximately 50 times before becoming senescent, which means no longer able to divide. This phenomenon that any cell can multiply only a limited number of times is called the <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(11)60908-2/fulltext">Hayflick limit</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, Hayflick and others have successfully documented the Hayflick limits of cells from animals with varied life spans, including the long-lived Galapagos turtle (200 years) and the relatively short-lived laboratory mouse (3 years). The cells of a Galapagos turtle divide approximately 110 times before senescing, whereas mice cells become senescent within 15 divisions.</p>
<p>The Hayflick limit gained more support when Elizabeth Blackburn and colleagues <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/medicine/laureates/2009/">discovered</a> the ticking clock of the cell in the form of telomeres. Telomeres are repetitive DNA sequence at the end of chromosomes which protects the chromosomes from degrading. With every cell division, it seemed these telomeres get shorter. The result of each shortening was that these cells were more likely to become senescent.</p>
<p>Other scientists used census data and complex modelling methods to come to the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10522-008-9156-4/fulltext.html#CR12">same conclusion</a>: that maximum human lifespan may be around 120 years. But no one has yet determined whether we can change the human Hayflick limit to become more like long-lived organisms such as the bowhead whales or the giant tortoise.</p>
<p>What gives more hope is that no one has actually proved that the Hayflick limit actually limits the lifespan of an organism. Correlation is not causation. For instance, despite having a very small Hayflick limit, mouse cells typically divide indefinitely when grown in standard laboratory conditions. They behave as if they have no Hayflick limit at all when grown in the concentration of oxygen that they experience in the living animal (3-5% versus 20%). They <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncb/journal/v5/n8/full/ncb1024.html">make enough telomerase</a>, an enzyme that replaces degraded telomeres with new ones. So it might be that currently the Hayflick “limit” is more the Hayflick “clock”, giving readout of the age of the cell rather than driving the cell to death.</p>
<h2>The trouble with limits</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24955/original/wtsgyyhh-1370265976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Happy last few days? It doesn’t have to end this way.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ptimat</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Hayflick limit may represent an organism’s maximal lifespan, but what is it that actually kills us in the end? To test the Hayflick limit’s ability to predict our mortality we can take cell samples from young and old people and grow them in the lab. If the Hayflick limit is the culprit, a 60-year-old person’s cells should divide far fewer times than a 20-year-old’s cells.</p>
<p>But this experiment fails time after time. The 60-year-old’s skin cells still divide approximately 50 times - just as many as the young person’s cells. But what about the telomeres: aren’t they the inbuilt biological clock? Well, it’s <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0045166">complicated</a>.</p>
<p>When cells are grown in a lab their telomeres do indeed shorten with every cell division and can be used to find the cell’s “expiry date”. Unfortunately, this does not seem to relate to actual health of the cells.</p>
<p>It is true that as we get older our telomeres shorten, but only for certain cells and only during certain time. Most importantly, trusty lab mice have telomeres that are five times longer than ours but their lives are 40 times shorter. That is why the relationship between telomere length and lifespan is unclear.</p>
<p>Apparently using the Hayflick limit and telomere length to judge maximum human lifespan is akin to understanding the demise of the Roman empire by studying the material properties of the Colosseum. Rome did not fall because the Colosseum degraded; quite the opposite in fact, the Colosseum degraded because the Roman Empire fell.</p>
<p>Within the human body, most cells do not simply senesce. They are repaired, cleaned or replaced by stem cells. Your skin degrades as you age because your body cannot carry out its normal functions of repair and regeneration.</p>
<h2>To infinity and beyond</h2>
<p>If we could maintain our body’s ability to repair and regenerate itself, could we substantially increase our lifespans? This question is, unfortunately, vastly <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=researchers-disagree-about-how-to-extend-human-lifespan">under-researched</a> for us to be able to answer confidently. Most institutes on ageing promote research that delays onset of the diseases of ageing and not research that targets human life extension.</p>
<p>Those that look at extension study how diets like calorie restriction affect human health or the health impacts of molecules like resveratrol derived from red wine. Other research tries to understand the mechanisms underlying the beneficial effects of certain diets and foods with hopes of synthesising drugs that do the same. The tacit understanding in the field of gerontology seems to be that, if we can keep a person healthy longer, we may be able to modestly improve lifespan.</p>
<p>Living long and having good health are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary, you cannot have a long life without good health. Currently most ageing research is concentrated on improving “health”, not lifespan. If we are going to live substantially longer, we need to engineer our way out of the current 120-year-barrier.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Avi Roy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
In rich countries, more than 80% of the population today will survive past the age of 70. About 150 years ago, only 20% did. In all this while, though, only one person lived beyond the age of 120. This…
Avi Roy, PhD student, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/14230
2013-05-24T05:46:57Z
2013-05-24T05:46:57Z
Trust the markets to fund science
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23980/original/g8m37y4f-1368717949.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Public money can put on a show about the Industrial Revolution, but it can't start one.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jon Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are times when only clichés work. There is a 400-year-old elephant in the science lab and the emperor, frankly, has no clothes. </p>
<p>It was in 1605 that Francis Bacon, a British politician and lawyer, wrote his book <a href="http://www.bartleby.com/193/">The Advancement of Learning</a> to argue that economic growth depended on government funding of science. Bacon noted that the greatest technological advances of his age had been <a href="http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Henry_the_Navigator.aspx">Henry the Navigator’s voyages of discovery </a> which, Bacon claimed, had succeeded because Henry had established a research laboratory to develop the science and technology by which his ships could navigate the globe. Henry’s voyages of discovery were indeed great advances but, as Sir Peter Russell showed in his <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Prince_Henry_the_Navigator.html?id=wEhPdRNtOl8C&redir_esc=y">2001 biography Henry the Navigator</a>, it was simply a myth that Henry had done science: Henry had only exploited the established technologies of the day. Henry’s “research lab” was a publicity stunt designed to represent Henry, falsely, as an intellectual.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Bacon’s argument that economic growth depends on government funding of science remains dogma that is still universally believed. First, he wrote that applied science grows out of pure science, and second he wrote that - because pure science has no immediate application - only governments would fund it. Bacon’s claims, now known as the linear model, state that government funding leads to pure science, which in turn leads to applied science, and <a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/etext04/adlr10h.htm">eventually from that comes economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the credibility of this model, there is no empirical evidence that it is true. As long ago as 1972, it has been reported in the book Wealth from Knowledge that in practice “although scientific discoveries occasionally lead to new technology, this is rare. [Generally] technology builds on technology.”</p>
<p>Equally Britain became the richest country in the world by pioneering the agricultural and industrial revolutions in an era of <em>laissez faire</em> - when transactions between private parties were free from government restrictions, tariffs and subsidies - and when British governments did not fund science. Around 1890 Britain was eventually overtaken economically – by the US which was equally <em>laissez faire</em> (<a href="http://steveblank.com/2013/01/14/the-endless-frontier-u-s-science-and-national-industrial-policy-part-1/">the American government did not fund science significantly until 1940</a>).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, countries such as France and the German states enjoyed considerable government funding for science during the 18th and 19th centuries, but they failed to converge economically on the two anglophone leaders. As economic historian Angus Maddison showed in his 2003 book <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/the-world-economy_9789264022621-en">The World Economy</a>, France and Germany entered the 20th century as poor, relative to the UK and USA, as they entered the 19th century. It was only after 1945, by when - ironically - the UK and USA governments were themselves funding science generously, that Germany and France finally caught up. They did so by adopting free markets on the UK and US models. It needs to be emphasised that 19th-century Germany under Rhenish capitalism did not do unusually well economically.</p>
<p>Not everyone believes that economic history provides arguments that are relevant to today. But take this 2003 study where a group of economists at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), an economic think tank for the world’s richest countries, published <a href="http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/free/1103011e.pdf">The Sources of Economic Growth in OECD Countries</a>. This study, which was a comprehensive survey of the rich countries’ economies and of their patterns of research funding over more than two decades, found that only privately-funded research contributed to economic growth. Not only did publicly-funded research not stimulate economic growth but - by displacing private funding - it might even have inhibited it.</p>
<p>Bacon believed that no private entity would fund pure science because, essential though pure science was to the development of technology, he or she could not monopolise the pure discoveries they had funded. Developments in pure science, Bacon said, were so unpredictable that, inevitably, competitors - sometimes decades later - could exploit a scientist’s work without those competitors contributing to that original research. So no private entity would fund pure science because such funding was essentially subsidising the research of competitors.</p>
<p>But Bacon was wrong. To use another cliché, there are no free lunches in science. The only people who can exploit the science of principals are their fellow scientists (can you exploit papers published in fields outside your own?) and competitive scientists pay their way by publishing their own work. So although no single pure scientist can monopolise their own discoveries, the competitors who are copying a scientist’s research are making their own contributions to the collective enterprise - contributions that others will in their turn exploit. </p>
<p>Every scientist, however great, is as much a free loader as a contributor. He or she stands on the shoulders of giants as much as he or she bears others on their shoulders and the net effect is collectively beneficial. Which is why companies and foundations fund as much science as they do - they cannot access the research of others without doing their own - and which is why they would fund even more if governments’ funding had not displaced their own.</p>
<p>There are many good reasons why governments should fund science, but those reasons should be rooted in a democracy’s need for science the market would not fund. Big Science projects such as the International Space Station and the Large Hadron Collider will attract funding from the public for non-economic reasons. But empirical evidence shows that markets can be entrusted to fund all the science - including pure science - that economic growth requires.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Counter</em>: <a href="https://theconversation.com/science-is-vital-just-not-in-the-way-you-think-14461">Science is vital, just not in the way you think</a></p>
<p><em>Infographic</em>: <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-how-much-does-the-world-spend-on-science-14069">How much does the world spend on science?</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The University of Buckingham is the UK's only private university.</span></em></p>
There are times when only clichés work. There is a 400-year-old elephant in the science lab and the emperor, frankly, has no clothes. It was in 1605 that Francis Bacon, a British politician and lawyer…
Terence Kealey, Vice-chancellor, University of Buckingham
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.