tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-copenhagen-1186/articlesThe University of Copenhagen2024-03-06T21:16:57Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223612024-03-06T21:16:57Z2024-03-06T21:16:57ZCampus garden initiatives can help grow the next generation of environmental change-makers<p>No longer a problem of the future, the climate crisis is now driving devastating real-world impacts <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/headline-statements/">here in Canada</a> and worldwide. </p>
<p>For many Canadians, one of the most visible climate impacts is on the availability and cost of the food we eat as climate change, global crises and profit-driven food companies have combined to drive food insecurity. The agricultural sector is simultaneously a <a href="https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-11/farming-future-agriculture-climate-change-canadian-prairies.pdf">major contributor</a> to Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and itself highly vulnerable to climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-food-is-far-higher-than-what-you-spend-at-the-checkout-counter-217883">The true cost of food is far higher than what you spend at the checkout counter</a>
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<p>Amid this crisis, students are sowing seeds of change on university campuses across the country. </p>
<h2>Transformative learning and action</h2>
<p>Student-led food initiatives like <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/education/resources/facilities-equipment-online-tools/communitygarden">campus gardens</a>, <a href="https://involvement.mcgill.ca/organization/machappybelly">food waste diversion projects</a>, and <a href="https://cultivaction.ca/">community food security partnerships</a> are on the rise and are a proven way of localizing climate action and transforming food systems.</p>
<p>Given the sheer scale and complexity of the climate and food security crises, it can be tempting to doubt just how much impact these small-scale campus initiatives can have. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2015.1130764">Researchers</a> have even criticized student gardens for entrenching shallow and depoliticized understandings of the food system among participants. After all, the GHG emissions saved by growing vegetables in one garden plot or setting up a compost program are minuscule compared to the many hundred million tons of emissions attributed to corporations.</p>
<p>While student-led initiatives may not directly solve the crises we face, we found they can transform students’ mindsets and develop their skills and confidence as agents of larger-scale change. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1230787">Our research</a> with McGill University students participating in student-led campus- and community-based initiatives shows how these activities can support transformative opportunities for learning about, and acting on, food security and climate change.</p>
<p>Students have <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003000396">long reported</a> that education about food and environmental issues like climate change feels abstract and disempowering within the confines of classroom walls. </p>
<p>The lack of real-world engagement makes it challenging for learners to discern how and where they can contribute to building solutions. Student-led food initiatives are one way that students engage with these issues through experiential learning.</p>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>We found that initiatives that only focus on the technical or scientific aspects of food security and climate change have limited educational impact on student participants. Rather, building critical and transformative understandings of food systems in students appears to hinge on a few key practices that some, but not all, student-led initiatives address.</p>
<p><strong>1 - Learning and acting beyond the classroom</strong> </p>
<p>Through hands-on learning students gain opportunities to “learn by doing,” either through course-based or extracurricular activities. This approach is especially effective when education transcends campus boundaries through partnerships with local communities and community organizations. </p>
<p>When immersed in hands-on and collaborative experiences with communities, students demonstrated new capacities to collectively act in small ways on large-scale issues. Connecting with partners in school and community gardens, for example, allowed students to grapple with complex issues on tangible scales and foster a deeper understanding of the challenges at hand.</p>
<p><strong>2 - Centring equity and justice</strong> </p>
<p>Building on our insights about learning in hands-on collaborations, we found that working with equity and justice-oriented partners deepened student engagement even further. For instance, collaboration with local food banks called upon students to observe, interact with, and reflect on community food insecurity and injustice, which they otherwise may not encounter within campus confines. </p>
<p>This direct engagement with food system realities nurtured a more complex, holistic and critical understanding of food systems issues among participants. It also inspired hope and confidence within students, motivating them to engage in further action.</p>
<p><strong>3 - Engaging with peers across boundaries</strong> </p>
<p>Our research found that student-led initiatives act as important spaces for social engagement and learning between students, creating opportunities for meaningful dialogue across academic disciplines. Social bonds were also important for motivating and strengthening collective action among students, often evoking feelings of hope. These feelings stand in stark contrast to the despair and discouragement reported by students exposed to conventional “doom-and-gloom” environmental education. </p>
<p>For example, in developing a workshop for a local food bank that connected composting in the community garden with climate change, students studying education and environment exchanged new understandings of the connections between climate, food and educational systems.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Students and staff from McGill University discuss campus-based sustainable garden initiatives.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Supporting student learning</h2>
<p>With the impacts of climate change only projected to grow in the years to come, educational institutions urgently need to step up to the scale and scope of the challenge. </p>
<p>Our findings show how investing in hands-on, justice-oriented and boundary-spanning learning opportunities helps to drive transformative learning and can nurture students as the next generation of change-makers. Universities can do this by supporting student-led initiatives through the allocation of funds, space or mentorship to these efforts, or by expanding experiential learning within academic courses and programs. </p>
<p>Strengthening university-community partnerships, particularly with organizations working to advance climate, social and food justice, is critical to both types of investment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows how university garden initiatives can help drive transformative change and nurture a new generation of environmental and socially conscious change-makers.Blane Harvey, Associate professor, Department of Integrated Studies in Education, McGill UniversityEmily Diane Sprowls, Faculty Lecturer, Science Education, McGill UniversityZoë Deskin, Master's Student, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214562024-01-25T02:41:48Z2024-01-25T02:41:48ZTren nama bayi: mengapa kita semua memilih nama yang sama<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570152/original/file-20240118-28-jcsg23.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Orang tua muda sering kali mencari nama yang seunik anak mereka.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/0hiUWSi7jvs">Minnie Zhou | Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kamu mungkin salah satu orang yang sudah menyusun daftar nama-nama potensial untuk anak sejak kecil. Atau ketertarikanmu pada nama mungkin baru muncul saat menantikan anak pertama. Tiba-tiba, kamu mulai melihat nama panggilan di mana-mana. </p>
<p>Pikiranmu mungkin kembali ke keluarga yang lebih tua. Di Inggris, nama-nama seperti <a href="http://www.nameplayground.com/Evelyn">Evelyn</a> atau <a href="http://www.nameplayground.com/Arthur">Arthur</a> dulunya terasa kuno. Namun entah bagaimana sekarang nama-nama tersebut terasa segar dan indah. Calon orang tua mungkin tidak akan memberi tahu tentang nama favorit mereka: karena nama tersebut istimewa, dan mereka tidak ingin seseorang mencurinya.</p>
<p>Meski demikian, ketika si kecil Arthur atau Evelyn masuk ke tempat penitipan anak atau sekolah, nama mereka tidak lagi terlihat orisinil. Ternyata, ada tiga Evelyn di kelas, dan beberapa Arthur di taman bermain, meskipun orang tua anak-anak itu mungkin belum pernah bertemu dengan seseorang bernama Evelyn atau Arthur sebelum memiliki anak sendiri. </p>
<p>Sosiolog Amerika, Stanley Lieberson, dalam bukunya yang terbit tahun 2000, <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300173871/a-matter-of-taste/"><em>A Matter of Taste: How Names, Fashions, and Culture Change</em></a> menunjukkan bahwa calon orang tua menyukai nama-nama yang sama di waktu yang sama karena berbagai alasan, mulai dari preferensi generasi hingga perubahan sosial dan pengaruh budaya. Namun, sejak akhir abad ke-19, nama-nama tersebut bukan lagi menjadi masalah adat, melainkan masalah selera. Dengan demikian, hal ini mengikuti pergeseran dan pengulangan yang sama seperti ekspresi mode lainnya. </p>
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<img alt="tren nama bayi" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473954/original/file-20220713-9360-ckyg4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pergeseran sosial dan pengaruh budaya membentuk tren penamaan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/0n4AhLhuOZk">Joice Kelly | Unsplash</a></span>
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<h2>Bagaimana nama bisa terasa terlalu umum?</h2>
<p>Ketika memikirkan nama-nama yang menurutmu bagus, menarik untuk mempertimbangkan apakah ada di antara nama-nama tersebut yang umum di generasimu sendiri, atau di generasi orang tuamu. Jawaban dari kedua pertanyaan ini mungkin “tidak”. Nama-nama yang kita kaitkan dengan teman sebaya atau guru kita sering kali terasa terlalu “biasa” dan tidak cocok.</p>
<p>Sebaliknya, nama-nama dari generasi kakek-nenek atau bahkan kakek-nenek buyut kita tampak lebih menarik. <a href="https://www.nordicsocioonomastics.org/naming-trends-in-denmark/">Penelitian di Denmark</a> menunjukkan bahwa nama anak perempuan dua suku kata yang diakhiri dengan “a” (seperti Alma atau Clara) semakin populer sejak tahun 2000 - seabad setelah terakhir kali nama-nama tersebut mencapai popularitasnya. </p>
<p>Pola 100 tahun tersebut masuk akal karena kita tidak memiliki banyak pengalaman dengan nama-nama dari generasi ini. Dan meskipun, sebagai orang tua muda, kita berpikir bahwa kita telah mendapatkan <em>jackpot</em> dengan menemukan nama yang sama uniknya dengan bayi kita yang baru lahir, selera kita sering kali selaras dengan selera orang lain <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/591659">dari generasi kita</a>. Sama seperti adanya preferensi generasi dalam hal furnitur, musik, dan gaya rambut, demikian juga dengan nama bayi.</p>
<p>Tentu saja, tidak semua nama depan yang populer dapat ditelusuri kembali ke generasi yang lebih tua. Terkadang, orang tua terinspirasi oleh budaya populer. Di Denmark, Liam tidak pernah menjadi nama yang umum <a href="https://navn.ku.dk/personnavne/20drengenavne/liam/">hingga tahun 2000-an</a>, ketika nama ini mulai memuncaki daftar nama anak laki-laki. Hal ini berkaitan, setidaknya sedikit, dengan <em>rapper</em> Denmark dan pembawa acara TV LOC, Liam O'Connor yang terkenal di periode tersebut. Sementara itu, pada tahun 1991, <a href="https://www.thelocal.fr/20170119/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-how-a-hollywood-naming-craze-swept-france/">14.087 Kévin</a> dilaporkan lahir di Prancis karena dua film yang dirilis tahun sebelumnya: <em>Dances With Wolves</em> yang dibintangi Kevin Costner, dan <em>Home Alone</em>, yang tokoh utamanya bernama Kevin McCallister.</p>
<p>Perubahan budaya yang lebih luas juga berdampak pada popularitas nama. Setelah perang dunia kedua, Denmark tidak lagi terputus dari pengaruh budaya Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Inggris. Akibatnya, nama-nama Inggris seperti John dan Tommy <a href="https://www.norna.org/content/benny-brian-johnny-og-dennis-om-de-engelske-drengenavnes-historie-i-danmark-som">menjadi sangat populer</a>. Sementara itu, gerakan hak-hak sipil di AS membuat pola penamaan Afrika-Amerika bergeser dari pilihan Alkitab seperti Elia dan Ishak ke nama-nama seperti <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-black-names-from-perlie-to-latasha-130102">Kareem</a> yang diambil dari nama pebasket dan aktivis Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. </p>
<p>Lebih jauh lagi, karena semakin banyak dari kita yang hidup dalam <a href="https://theconversation.com/plurilingual-parenting-why-many-experts-think-families-who-speak-multiple-languages-should-just-go-with-the-flow-185255#:%7E:text=Pengasuhan%20bahasa%20lebih%20liberal,%20orang%20tua%20tidak%20masalah%20dengan%20hal%20tersebut.">masyarakat yang sangat beragam</a>, orang tua dengan <a href="https://yorkspace.library.yorku.ca/xmlui/handle/10315/35884">latar belakang yang berbeda</a> memilih nama yang dapat digunakan <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/What's-in-a-Name-An-Exploration-of-the-Significance-Edwards-Caballero/22b0404597b55e58db129d22247a819568c03190">lintas budaya</a>. Di sini, nama lebih merupakan selera pribadi daripada sarana mewariskan budaya.</p>
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<img alt="tren nama Noah" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473953/original/file-20220713-9289-jb1to0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Noah menduduki peringkat teratas dalam daftar nama anak laki-laki terbaik di beberapa negara.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/w55SpMmoPgE">Anna Samoylova | Unsplash</a></span>
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<h2>Bagaimana tren nama melintasi batas negara?</h2>
<p>Seperti tren lainnya, mode nama bervariasi dari satu negara ke negara lain - dan juga dalam konteks bahasa. Alfie adalah salah satu nama anak laki-laki yang paling <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalesbabynamesstatisticsboys">populer di Inggris dan Wales</a>, tetapi hampir sepenuhnya <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/">diabaikan di AS</a>.</p>
<p>Namun, terkadang, sebuah tren dapat melintasi batas negara. Noah dan Ella ada di setiap daftar nama teratas dari <a href="https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/emner/borgere/navne/navne-til-nyfoedte">Denmark</a>, <a href="https://www.ssb.no/befolkning/navn/statistikk/navn">Norwegia,</a> <a href="https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/namnsok/">Swedia</a> hingga <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/babynamesenglandandwales/2019/relateddata">Inggris</a>. Dan kemungkinan besar kamu mungkin mengenal beberapa orang bernama Emma, karena ini adalah nama yang telah menggemparkan hampir <a href="https://names.ku.dk/selectednames/emma/">seluruh dunia Barat</a> sejak akhir tahun 1900-an.</p>
<p>Baru-baru ini, penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam beberapa tahun terakhir telah terjadi perubahan <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29213180/">persepsi tradisional</a> tentang nama anak laki-laki dan perempuan. Mulai muncul fokus dan ketertarikan terhadap nama-nama yang dapat digunakan tanpa memandang jenis kelamin. </p>
<p>Data dari pencatatan kelahiran di <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/babynamesenglandandwales/2020">Inggris dan Wales untuk tahun 2020</a> menunjukkan bahwa Ivy-Rose adalah nama depan dengan tanda penghubung yang paling banyak digunakan untuk anak perempuan (di nomor 229, dengan 202 bayi yang diberi nama demikian). Sementara Tommy-Lee adalah nama depan dengan tanda penghubung yang paling banyak digunakan untuk anak laki-laki (di nomor 454, dengan hanya 87 bayi yang menggunakan nama ini). Jadi, jika ingin nama calon anakmu lebih khas di antara teman-temannya, nama yang terdiri dari dua bagian bisa menjadi pilihan.</p>
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<p><em>Rahma Sekar Andini dari Universitas Negeri Malang menerjemahkan artikel ini dari bahasa Inggris</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Seperti halnya ekspresi budaya lainnya, cara kita menamai anak ternyata juga mengikuti tren. Hal ini terkait dengan selera dan juga pergeseran sosial yang lebih luas.Jane Pilcher, Associate Professor of Sociology, Nottingham Trent UniversityBirgit Eggert, Assistant professor in Nordic Studies, University of CopenhagenKatrine Bechsgaard, Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2150472023-10-15T12:27:49Z2023-10-15T12:27:49ZThe impact of work on well-being: 6 factors that will affect the future of work and health inequalities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553696/original/file-20231013-21-iobxz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1140%2C729%2C4035%2C2661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If public health bodies and policymakers put greater focus on improving the work environment, it could achieve major gains in population health and reduce health inequities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-impact-of-work-on-well-being-6-factors-that-will-affect-the-future-of-work-and-health-inequalities" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Work has long been considered a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/population-health/what-determines-health.html">social determinant of health</a>. Like housing, education, income security and other matters of economic and social policy, work can be a key factor in creating, maintaining or exacerbating unequal health outcomes across different societal groups. </p>
<p>But if work is already understood to be a social determinant of health by regulators and policymakers, it has been underused as a lever to address health inequities. That’s the main case we — an international group of work and health researchers — have made in a series of articles on the relationships between work and health <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/work-and-health">recently published in <em>The Lancet</em></a>. </p>
<p>In these articles, we suggest that if public health bodies and policymakers put greater focus on improving the work environment, it could achieve major gains in population health and reduce health inequities. </p>
<p>There are historical examples that demonstrate this is possible — such as the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C001">1919 Hours of Work Convention</a>, where International Labour Organization member states agreed to limit working hours to improve health — but they remain infrequent. </p>
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<img alt="Three construction workers in hardhats and orange vests seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Not enough attention is paid to the role that work conditions and environments play in creating, worsening or even alleviating health inequities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, occupational health tends to be siloed from broader population health, and occupational health and safety activity tends to focus on visible work hazards related to injuries and illnesses. Less attention is paid to the role that work conditions and environments play in creating, worsening or even alleviating health inequities. </p>
<p>Yet, broader societal factors such as immigration, affordable daycare, education and training, and disability policy impact the availability and nature of work; and work conditions also have reciprocal impacts on these societal factors.</p>
<h2>Work and health</h2>
<p>The unequal distribution of diseases across occupational groups has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105%2FAJPH.91.9.1382">documented since the 1700s</a>. However, it wasn’t until the 1980s, with studies using large employer cohorts, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyh372">Whitehall cohorts</a>, that modern research methods of epidemiology (causes and distribution of diseases and health) were used to break down the contributions of specific lifestyle, biomedical and work-related factors on differences in worker health.</p>
<p>The Whitehall studies on white-collar civil servants — occupations historically considered safe — highlighted that <a href="https://reflexus.org/wp-content/uploads/wii-booklet.pdf">factors such as low control over one’s work</a> were related to leading causes of disease. </p>
<p>In the decades since, research methods and opportunities to link data have evolved. Large multinational cohorts, including hundreds of thousands of participants linked to administrative health service data, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.3485">are now possible</a>. </p>
<p>These advances in data and quantitative methods increasingly allow us to ask more policy-relevant <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/oemed-2023-109085">“what if” questions</a> about the broader health impacts of changes to specific aspects of the work environment. </p>
<h2>Factors that will affect work and health inequity</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Agricultural workers in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Policymakers need to pay attention to the distinctive patterns of health inequities experienced by different groups of migrant workers and provide tailored protective measures for each group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/work-and-health"><em>Lancet</em> series</a> includes a paper that analyzes evidence and provides recommendations on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00869-3">workplace mental health</a>, and another that focuses on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00868-1">labour market inclusion</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to these areas, we also prioritize <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00871-1">six factors that will impact work and health inequities</a> into the future. These are: </p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Telework</strong>. The rise in telework or remote work can lead to reduced psychosocial support from colleagues and greater social isolation. It may also erode responsibility by both employers and regulators for ensuring health and safety of those working from home.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>International migrant workers</strong>. Refugees, immigrant and temporary migrant workers experience different labour market and <a href="https://doi.org/10.25318/82-003-x201900400001-eng">health trajectories</a> after arrival in Canada. Policymakers need to pay attention to the distinctive patterns of health inequities experienced by different groups of migrant workers and provide tailored protective measures for each group. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Intersections between gender, age, race, ethnicity and social class</strong>. We need to pay attention to the compounding effects that different social stratifiers have on the types of jobs (and subsequent differences in physical and psychological exposures at work) available to different groups in society, and identify opportunities to address these differences. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Precarious employment</strong>. With the continued erosion of full-time, permanent jobs and the rise of platform-based gig work, precarious work continues to spread across the global labour force. While precarious work is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ajim.22535">greater workplace hazards and fewer protections</a>, there is no reason this needs to be the case. We need to develop and implement innovative approaches, such as portable benefits, to make this type of work relationship safer.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Long and irregular work hours</strong>. Working long or irregular hours is associated with higher risks of <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_792131/lang--en/index.htm">stroke and heart disease</a>, greater alcohol use and work injuries. Regulations on working time are a central theme of labour rights and labour protections, but the relationship between working time and worker health depends on social context. While those in secure and stable work may see health benefits from working fewer hours, for those in freelance, contract, self-employed and other similar arrangements, reduced hours means less income security. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Climate change</strong>. The effects of climate change on work are difficult to predict, though potentially severe. While it is clear that increased ambient temperature, air pollution, ultraviolet radiation exposure, extreme weather and the spread of vector-borne diseases will directly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15459624.2016.1179388">impact some industries and occupations</a>, the flow-on effects across the labour market are less clear. We need to ensure these effects are not disproportionately impacting those in the lowest-paid jobs, who likely have the least resources to withstand the challenges. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Reducing health inequities</h2>
<p>In the face of these emerging challenges, there is a need to develop and test interventions to reduce work-related determinants of unequal health.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People in white chef uniforms working in a restaurant kitchen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regulations about hazards at work have been the exclusive domain of occupational health and safety specialists for too long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These interventions can target individual workers when appropriate, but to be most effective, they should focus more broadly on changes at the organizational level, such as workplaces, and at sectoral and societal levels, including provincial, territorial and national policies that affect workplaces. This will only be possible with greater collaboration across both research and professional disciplines, as well as provincial and federal ministries. </p>
<p>Regulations about hazards at work have been the exclusive domain of occupational health and safety specialists for too long. Addressing the broader aspects of work and working conditions that are social determinants of health will need greater involvement from other fields, including economists, legal scholars, and social and political scientists. </p>
<p>Occupational health needs to work hand-in-hand with other sectors — including but not limited to public health — to develop, implement and evaluate policy solutions that will help make the work people do, and the environments they work in, healthier and more equitable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Smith receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, WorkSafeBC and the Ontario Workplace Safety & Insurance Board. The Institute for Work & Health is supported in part through funding from the Ontario Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjumand Siddiqi receives funding from the Canadian Institute of Health Research and the Government of Canada's Canada Research Chairs Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Mustard receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. The Institute for Work & Health is supported in part through funding from the Ontario Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John William Frank has only ever received research funding from public sector research funding agencies in Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. - many millions of dollars over the last 40 years. All of that funding terminated in 2021, as he is now largely retired. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reiner Rugulies is employed at the National Research Centre for the Working Environment, Copenhagen, Denmark (NFA), which is a Danish governmental sector research institute under the ministry of employment. Rugulies’s work at NFA is funded by several research grants from public funding agencies, including the Danish Working Environment Research Fund, the European Union Horizon 2020 Research Programme and the European Union Horizon Europe Research Programme.</span></em></p>The work environment is a social determinant of health. However, work has been underused as a lever to address health inequalities.Peter Smith, Senior Scientist, Institute for Work & Health. Professor, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoArjumand Siddiqi, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Population Health Equity, University of TorontoCameron Mustard, Professor of Epidemiology (Emeritis), University of TorontoJohn William Frank, Professorial Fellow, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of EdinburghReiner Rugulies, Adjunct Professor, Psychosocial Medicine, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137622023-09-19T04:31:41Z2023-09-19T04:31:41ZWhat are ‘planetary boundaries’ and why should we care?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548985/original/file-20230919-15-6o2a50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=844%2C5%2C2736%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/nasa-captures-epic-earth-image">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As far as we know, there is exactly one planet in our Solar System – and the galaxy – which hosts life. And you’re on it. </p>
<p>For the first 800 million years, Earth was dead. Then life began making itself at home. For over three billion years, lifeforms have helped shape their own environment. Earth’s energy balance (commonly known as the climate) and its interactions with trillions of species is the main determinant of environmental conditions. </p>
<p>As you know, one species – ours – is exceptionally good at changing our environment to suit us. The problem is, we’re now too good at it. We chop down forests, remove mountains to get at ore bodies, take over grassland, fish out entire seas, create and unleash novel chemicals and pump huge quantities of nutrients from fertiliser into the system. These and many more undermine the hidden life support system on which we rely. </p>
<h2>What are planetary boundaries?</h2>
<p>Almost 15 years ago, this article’s lead author helped create something called “planetary boundaries” to make clear what damage we had done. </p>
<p>We teased apart nine processes vital to the Earth system. </p>
<p>Three are based on what we take from the system: </p>
<ul>
<li>biodiversity loss</li>
<li>fresh water</li>
<li>land use. </li>
</ul>
<p>The remaining six come from waste we deposit back into the environment: </p>
<ul>
<li>greenhouse gases (which cause climate change and ocean acidification)</li>
<li>ozone-depleting chemicals</li>
<li>novel entities (plastic, concrete, synthetic chemicals and genetically modified organisms which owe their existence to us)</li>
<li>aerosols</li>
<li>nutrient overload (reactive nitrogen and phosphorus from fertilisers)</li>
</ul>
<p>If we keep our activities to a safe level, the sheer exuberance of life and the planet’s own processes can handle it. But in six out of nine vital life support systems, we have blown <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">well past</a> the safe zone. And we’re now in the danger zone, where we – as well as every other species – are now at risk. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="planetary boundaries update 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Here’s the sum total of our impact on the planet. You can see the areas we’re still within safe limits – and those where we are well past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our breach of boundaries is very new</h2>
<p>In the year 1900, there were around 1.6 billion humans – nearly all of them poor. Now there are 8 billion of us, and some of them are rich. And nearly all of us use fossil fuels, plastics, chemicals and products from intensive agriculture. </p>
<p>It can be very easy to live our lives and only occasionally glimpse the reality. You might have flown over palm oil plantations where rainforest was. Seen blue-green algal blooms or fish kills. You might have wondered where all the animals or bugs were on a bushwalk. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">Humanity is in the existential danger zone, study confirms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But when we zoom out and look at the sum total of our impacts, the story is clear. Put bluntly, we are eating away at our own life support systems. And this has happened extraordinarily recently. If we keep going, we risk triggering a dramatic and potentially irreversible change in living conditions. </p>
<p>Like all other living organisms, we survive by using Earth’s resources. We once believed these resources were unlimited. But we now know there are hard limits. </p>
<p>Take fresh water – essential to life on land. If we pump too much water from rivers, lakes and aquifers for farming, industry or cities, we risk hitting that hard limit. This isn’t hypothetical – places like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/01/climate/india-groundwater-depletion.html">India</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/us/california-groundwater-depletion.html">California</a> are close to that limit. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="india groundwater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries is likely to trigger freshwater crises.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">India groundwater</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How are these boundaries calculated?</h2>
<p>Remember – the entirety of human civilisation, the flowering of culture, religion, agriculture and cities – has taken place only in the last 10–12,000 years. For the roughly 190,000 years before that, we were nomadic hunter-gatherers. What changed? </p>
<p>The climate, for one. We entered a climate sweet spot, with relatively stable and warm conditions. Gone were the recurring ice ages. Many experts believe there’s a connection here – stable climate, rise of civilisation, though this is hard to establish with certainty. </p>
<p>What we do know is we can thrive under these conditions. We don’t know for certain our civilisation as we know it can thrive if they are different. We would be foolish to risk pushing our supporting envelope to breaking point. </p>
<p>That’s why we and many other independent scientists have worked as hard as we have to develop the framework of planetary boundaries and keep it up-to-date as new science comes in. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-climate-weve-already-breached-most-of-the-earths-limits-a-safer-fairer-future-means-treading-lightly-206678">It's not just climate – we've already breached most of the Earth's limits. A safer, fairer future means treading lightly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we know if we’ve breached the boundaries?</h2>
<p>The Earth’s environmental conditions have changed many times in its long history. Climate is a good example here. We know the Earth looked very different when temperatures were higher or lower. Palms <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19077439">once grew</a> in Antarctica. These swings from hothouse to ice age let us estimate the boundary beyond which our activities can upset the process. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="palm trees snow background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palm trees once grew in an ice-free Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These are boundaries, not thresholds. When we cross one, it doesn’t trigger immediate disaster. And it’s entirely possible to bring our activities back from unsafe to safe. We’ve done it already in the 1990s, when international cooperation quickly phased out ozone-depleting chemicals and stopped the dangerous ozone hole from getting ever-bigger. </p>
<p>So how are we doing? Not great. </p>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">update</a>, the research team found we had now gone beyond the safe zone into dangerous territory in six of the nine processes. We are still in the green for ozone-depleting chemicals. Ocean-acidification is still, just, in the green, and so is aerosol pollution and dust. </p>
<p>But on climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, synthetic chemicals such as plastics, freshwater depletion, and nitrogen/phosphorus use, we’re well out of the safer zone. On these six, we’re deep in the red zone.</p>
<p>We’re keeping the party going as long as possible. But it can’t continue indefinitely. The bill comes due. The faster we do for the other boundaries what we did for ozone-depleting chemicals, the safer all of us will be. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone-202619">Two trillion tonnes of greenhouse gases, 25 billion nukes of heat: are we pushing Earth out of the Goldilocks zone?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xuemei Bai receives funding from the Australian government, Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), The Future Earth, and the Australian National University. She is affiliated with the Earth Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ve become so good at using the Earth’s resources we’re endangering the systems we rely on.Katherine Richardson, Professor in Biological Oceanography, University of CopenhagenXuemei Bai, Distinguished Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115642023-08-16T18:38:53Z2023-08-16T18:38:53ZRetour sur le potentiel effondrement du méga-courant de l’Atlantique<p><em>Fin juillet, une <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w">étude publiée dans Nature Communications</a> a mis en garde contre le risque d’effondrement d’un système océanique essentiel qui fait remonter les eaux chaudes dans l’Atlantique Nord. Nommée le plus souvent par son abréviation anglaise d’AMOC, la circulation méridienne de retournement de l’Atlantique était déjà connue comme étant ralentie de manière inégalée depuis 1600 ans.</em></p>
<p><em>Ces dernières recherches envisagent son possible effondrement entre 2025 et 2095, avec une estimation centrale de 2057 si une réduction drastique et rapide des émissions de gaz à effet de serre n’advient pas. Ce scénario, s’il s’avère exact, pourrait entraîner un climat européen dramatiquement froid avec des conséquences dévastatrices pour la vie telle que nous la connaissons. The Conversation s’est entretenu avec le physicien Peter Ditlevsen et sa sœur, la statisticienne Susanne Ditlevsen, pour discuter de leurs résultats et des controverses qu’ils n’ont pas manqué de susciter.</em></p>
<p><strong>Comment décririez-vous l’AMOC pour ceux qui n’en ont jamais entendu parler ?</strong></p>
<p>Peter Ditlevsen : l’AMOC fait partie d’une sorte de tapis roulant presque mondial qui transporte les eaux autour de la planète.</p>
<p>Au sud du Groenland, dans l’Atlantique Nord, nous voyons des eaux lourdes descendre et des eaux légères remonter. L’eau peut être lourde pour deux raisons. Elle peut être salée. Si l’on ajoute du sel, l’eau devient plus lourde et coule. Elle peut aussi être froide. L’eau froide est plus lourde que l’eau chaude, elle coule donc et retourne dans la partie sud de l’Atlantique.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Schéma de l’AMOC" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542615/original/file-20230814-25317-5zqk0u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schéma de l’AMOC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Thermohaline_Circulation.svg">Robert Simmon/NASA/Miraceti/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Le mégacourant océanique de l’AMOC reste très peu connu, que ce soit par le grand public ou même par les scientifiques, avec par exemple aucune surveillance directe de l’AMOC avant 2004. Comment cela se fait-il ?</strong></p>
<p>PD : Le premier problème est que l’océan est beaucoup moins connu que l’atmosphère. Tout d’abord parce que nous faisons des prévisions météorologiques permettant d’indiquer le temps qu’il fera demain et après-demain et qui concentrent beaucoup d’effort. De plus, concernant la prévision météorologique océanique, si nous pouvons observer très précisément la surface de l’océan, il est beaucoup plus difficile de pénétrer dans l’océan, notamment parce que nous ne pouvons pas vraiment transmettre de signaux.</p>
<p>En ce qui concerne précisément l’AMOC, il y a aussi une question de moyens financiers. C’est difficile et coûteux de le surveiller, il faut beaucoup de ressources, et bien qu’il y ait des missions scientifiques où l’on descend et où l’on obtient une idée instantanée de la situation, ce dont on a vraiment besoin, c’est une surveillance à long terme. C’est ce qui a été fait plus tôt pour le Pacifique en raison d’<a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/el-nino-20589">El Nino</a>. En ce sens, nous avons beaucoup plus de données concernant le Pacifique central et tropical que l’Atlantique.</p>
<p>Mais ce manque de données concernant l’AMOC ne correspond pas à un manque d’intérêt de la part des scientifiques. Dès les années 1960, l’océanographe et physicien américain Henry Stommel a étudié l’AMOC et a déclaré que ce mégacourant pouvait osciller entre deux états différents. Un phénomène que nous avons depuis observé en étudiant les carottes de glace du Groenland depuis l’<a href="https://theconversation.com/des-oasis-dans-les-alpes-pendant-la-periode-glaciaire-95111">époque glaciaire</a>.</p>
<p>À la grande surprise de tous, il s’est alors avéré que le climat glaciaire, en plus d’être bien sûr très froid, présentait ces énormes sauts climatiques entre un état froid et un état plus chaud, et la raison de ce phénomène n’était pas connue jusqu’à très récemment.</p>
<p>Aujourd’hui, le consensus converge vers l’idée que c’est en fait l’activation et la désactivation de l’AMOC qui est à l’origine de ce phénomène. Il s’agit de changements climatiques considérables, qui se produisent tous les quelques milliers d’années.</p>
<p>Et lorsque cela se produit, c’est extrêmement rapide. Bien que le passage de l’état « inactif » à l’état « actif » soit plus dramatique que l’inverse, la possibilité d’un arrêt auquel nous sommes maintenant confrontés est également très préoccupante […] Il est question d’une chute brutale de jusqu’à dix degrés en une décennie. Mais bien sûr, il faut être prudent avec les analogies, car le climat glaciaire est très différent de celui que nous connaissons aujourd’hui. De plus, aujourd’hui, nous sommes confrontés à un refroidissement de l’AMOC, avec en arrière-plan un réchauffement du climat. C’est un peu comme si nous conduisions une voiture et que nous appuyions en même temps sur la pédale de vitesse et sur la pédale de frein.</p>
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<p><strong>Votre étude a logiquement attiré l’attention des médias, qui ont parfois fait l’amalgame entre l’effondrement du Gulf Stream et l’effondrement de l’AMOC. Comment avez-vous vécu cela ?</strong></p>
<p>Susanne Ditlevsen : Je pense qu’il y a deux aspects à cette question. D’une part, le grand public peut confondre le Gulf Stream et l’AMOC et, dans un certain sens, il s’agit d’une simple formulation. Il existe donc un courant qui fait remonter l’eau chaude et qui risque de s’effondrer. Que nous l’appelions AMOC ou système Gulf Stream, même si le Gulf Stream en lui-même est quelque chose de différent, cela n’a pas d’importance, ce n’est qu’une question de formulation.</p>
<p>Mais cette différence terminologique peut générer un malentendu très préjudiciable, car le Gulf Stream <em>stricto sensu</em> ne peut pas s’effondrer, puisqu’il est entraîné par le vent et la rotation de la Terre. Ainsi, lorsqu’on dit que nous avons prédit l’effondrement du Gulf Stream, ils peuvent être tentés de nous traiter d’idiots. […] Je pense qu’il est important d’expliquer que nous parlons en fait de quelque chose de différent, dont nous pensons, comme beaucoup d’autres, qu’il peut s’effondrer.</p>
<p>La temporalité que nous avons donnée, qui s’étend de 2025 à 2095, a également été déformée. La probabilité n’est pas du tout la même sur l’ensemble de l’intervalle. Nous estimons donc qu’il est très peu probable qu’un effondrement puisse se produire dès 2025.</p>
<p>Il est notoirement difficile d’estimer ce que nous appelons les <a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queue_d%27une_loi_de_probabilit%C3%A9">« queues de distribution »</a> dans le jargon statistique. Il s’agit des probabilités les plus faibles aux extrémités de la distribution. Cependant, l’estimation centrale, située au milieu du siècle, est celle où nous pensons que le risque d’effondrement est le plus élevé si nous continuons à émettre des gaz à effet de serre au rythme actuel.</p>
<p>Même si nos estimations sont incertaines, le message principal est qu’il existe un risque considérable, ou du moins sous-estimé, que cet effondrement se produise beaucoup plus tôt qu’on ne le pensait.</p>
<p><strong>Supposons que l’AMOC s’effondre en 2057. Comment cela se traduirait-il concrètement en Europe ?</strong></p>
<p>PD : D’un point de vue climatique, l’effondrement serait probablement très rapide, c’est-à-dire qu’il s’arrêterait en quelques décennies.</p>
<p>Mais ce n’est pas non plus comme si une ère glaciaire se produisait en deux semaines. La région de l’Atlantique Nord et l’Europe, en particulier, se refroidiraient considérablement. L’Angleterre ressemblerait probablement au nord du Canada.</p>
<p>La chaleur de l’océan Pacifique qui ne serait pas transportée vers l’Atlantique Nord resterait dans les tropiques.</p>
<p>SD : Ce qu’il faut garder à l’esprit ici, c’est que ce dont nous parlons est très incertain. La façon dont les températures varieraient reste très incertaine, certains parlent de cinq degrés, d’autres de dix degrés, d’autres encore de plus de tempêtes, etc. Mais je pense que le message à retenir c’est que les implications seraient dévastatrices en termes de capacité à continuer à vivre comme nous le faisons aujourd’hui, et à poursuivre l’agriculture dans différents endroits. Il y aurait aussi des endroits densément peuplés où l’on ne pourrait tout simplement pas vivre.</p>
<p>PD : Il faut également se rappeler que nous avons du mal à faire face à des changements rapides. Historiquement, nos sociétés ont fait face aux changements en débutant de grandes migrations. Or nous savons à quel point cela est difficile pour les sociétés.</p>
<p><strong>Quelles étaient vos attentes lorsque vous avez lancé ce projet ? Aviez-vous prévu ces résultats spectaculaires ?</strong></p>
<p>PD : Mon but initial était de donner plus de poids à l’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC), grâce à une méthodologie solide et à des observations que j’avais prévu d’ajuster par la suite. Mais il s’est avéré que nos modèles ont situé l’effondrement beaucoup plus tôt que ceux du GIEC. Évidemment, j’aurais préféré que le résultat de notre étude soit moins controversé, car nous sommes aujourd’hui attaqués de toutes parts. Mais c’est ainsi que fonctionne la science, je suppose. Et c’est aussi la raison pour laquelle Susanne s’est beaucoup impliquée, parce que l’étude nécessitait des statistiques bien meilleures que celles dont je suis capable.</p>
<p>SD : Nous pensons également que cette menace d’effondrement est si préoccupante que si nous avons des données indiquant un effondrement plus précoce ou même considérablement plus précoce que ce que l’on croit généralement, nous devons le faire savoir. Mais cela ne signifie pas que nos résultats sont gravés dans le marbre. Bien entendu, ce n’est pas le cas. Parce que les données sont <a href="https://dataanalyticspost.com/Lexique/bruit/">« bruyantes »</a> et que nous disposons de mesures indirectes. Chaque année supplémentaire qui passe et qui est étudiée nous donne plus de données, et donc la capacité de réaliser de meilleures estimations.</p>
<p>Ceci étant dit, gardons quand même en tête que les changements climatiques ont d’énormes répercussions sur la Terre et des conséquences beaucoup plus importantes que ce qui avait été prévu. Il suffit de regarder les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes que nous avons connus cet été et les nouveaux records de température. Tout cela se produit plus tôt et plus fort que ce qui avait été prévu.</p>
<p><strong>La science du climat, en particulier le GIEC, a en effet tendance à faire des prévisions prudentes. Prenez, par exemple, la vitesse à laquelle les glaces de l’Arctique fondent par rapport à leur pronostic selon lequel elles ne risquent rien jusqu’en 2050 au moins</strong>.</p>
<p>SD : Il s’agit toujours de résultats conservateurs. Et dans ce sens, on pourrait dire que c’est l’une des raisons pour lesquelles je pense que cela donne un peu plus de crédibilité à notre étude parce que, bien sûr, nous ne voulions pas aller à l’encontre du GIEC, mais il s’est montré conservateur à bien des égards.</p>
<p><strong>Comment la science peut-elle mieux comprendre les implications d’un point de basculement de l’AMOC ?</strong></p>
<p>SD : Il est certain que nous avons besoin de plus de mesures de l’AMOC. Hélas, nous ne pouvons pas remonter dans le temps pour cela. Comme nous ne pouvons pas disposer de mesures très, très détaillées de l’époque préindustrielle, avant le réchauffement climatique, il est également difficile d’évaluer la variabilité naturelle et le comportement naturel avant le réchauffement climatique.</p>
<p>PD : D’une certaine manière, lorsque vous demandez ce qui est nécessaire, je dirais que c’est tout. C’est particulièrement vrai en ce qui concerne la modélisation. Je veux dire que ces modèles devraient au moins, dans un certain sens, reproduire ce que nous avons vu auparavant.</p>
<p><strong>Certains chercheurs parviennent encore à recueillir des données passées en étudiant les sédiments. Cela ne pourrait-il pas être utile ?</strong></p>
<p>PD : Oui, nous disposons d’énormes archives sédimentaires. Mais le problème est que dans le cas des échelles de temps que nous étudions, toute indication de points de basculement sera effacée. La résolution temporelle de ces enregistrements n’est tout simplement pas assez bonne.</p>
<p>Mais il serait évidemment incroyable que quelqu’un invente de nouveaux types de données paléo-climatiques. De temps en temps, on trouve des stalagmites et des stalactites qui semblent pouvoir être utilisées… Je pense qu’en fait ce dont nous avons vraiment besoin aujourd’hui, c’est que des jeunes chercheurs intelligents et ouverts d’esprit viennent nous rejoindre et essaient de nouvelles choses folles que les anciens pensaient impossibles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>S'il s'avère exact, le scénario de cette récente étude danoise pourrait signifier la fin de la vie en Europe telle que nous la connaissons.Peter Ditlevsen, Professor in physics of ice, climate and earth, University of CopenhagenSusanne Ditlevsen, Professor in statistics, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112212023-08-10T08:14:23Z2023-08-10T08:14:23ZAtlantic collapse: Q&A with scientists behind controversial study predicting a colder Europe<p><em>In late July, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w">a study published in Nature Communications</a> warned that a critical ocean system that brings warm water up the North Atlantic, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), was at risk of collapse by 2095 for want of drastic emissions cuts. While AMOC was already known to be at its slowest in 1600 years, the latest research ushers in a much closer time estimation for a collapse between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2057. If proven correct, this scenario could see temperatures drop by 5 to 10 degrees in Europe, with devastating consequences for life as we know it. The Conversation sat down with physicist Peter Ditlevsen and his sister, the statistician Susanne Ditlevsen, to unpack findings that have stirred controversy in some quarters.</em></p>
<p><strong>Your study understandably attracted much media attention, with some of the coverage conflating a collapse of the Gulf Stream with a collapse of AMOC. What did you make of this at the time?</strong></p>
<p>Susanne Ditlevsen: I think there are two aspects to this question. One is that the general public might confuse the Gulf stream and the AMOC and, in a certain sense, that’s just wording. So there is a current that brings warm water up and this is in danger of collapsing – whether we call it the AMOC or the Gulf Stream even though the Gulf Stream is something different in a certain sense doesn’t matter if it’s just a question of wording. </p>
<p>On the other, this misunderstanding can also be very harmful because there are people who know that the Gulf Stream cannot collapse, as it is driven by wind and the rotation of the earth. So when it comes out that we have predicted that the Gulf Stream will collapse, they might be tempted to dismiss us as idiots. </p>
<p>Ultimately, though, we don’t really care about the wording because sometimes people call it the Gulf Stream system which is the Gulf Stream and AMOC, and you can say ‘Well, okay’. I think it is important to explain that we are actually talking about something different, which we and many others do believe can collapse. </p>
<p>Our confidence interval – which spans 2025 to 2095 – was also misrepresented. There’s not the same probability across the entire interval. So we find it highly unlikely that a collapse could happen as early as 2025. </p>
<p>It is notoriously difficult to estimate what we call the <em>tails of the distribution</em> in statistical jargon. These are the smaller probabilities at the extremes of the distribution. However, the central estimate, situated at the mid-century, is where we believe that there is the highest risk of a collapse should we continue greenhouse gas emissions at the current rate. </p>
<p>Now, even if we are uncertain about our estimates, the main message from is that there is a considerable or at least underestimated risk that this collapse might happen much earlier than what was previously thought.</p>
<p><strong>Let’s say the AMOC collapsed in 2057. What would this look like in concrete terms in Europe?</strong></p>
<p>Peter Ditlevsen: If you look at it from a climate perspective, the collapse would probably be very rapid, which means it would shut down in a number of decades. </p>
<p>So, it’s not like you have an ice age in two weeks. The Northern Atlantic region and Europe, in particular, would cool substantially. England would probably look like Northern Canada. On top of that, we have global warming. So it’s a little bit as if we’re driving a car and, you know, we press the speed pedal and the brake at the same time. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It’s a little bit as if we’re driving a car and we press the speed pedal and the brake at the same time”
Peter Ditlevsen</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The heat from the Pacific ocean that would not be transported to the North Atlantic would end up staying in the tropics. This is part of a completely different system, namely the El Niño system, which has strong implications for the warming that we’re seeing now. We currently have an El Niño building up in North Africa. I mean, in Algeria, they recently had <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/algeria/article/2023/07/25/algeria-heat-wave-takes-toll-forces-climate-change-reckoning_6066267_221.html">night temperatures that did not go below 39.5 degrees</a>. </p>
<p>SD: What we must bear in mind here is that whatever we discuss is highly uncertain. The extent to which temperatures will vary is highly uncertain – some say five degrees, some say 10 degrees, some say more storms etc. But I think the takeaway message is that the implications would be devastating in terms of our ability to carry on living the way we do now, and to continue having agriculture in different places. You would probably have to change everything. And there would be densely populated places where one simply cannot live. </p>
<p>PD: Another thing to realize is that we have a hard time coping with fast changes. Our societies have historically coped with climate change through migrations. And we know how difficult this is for societies. My big concern is that we have three billion people living in tropical regions, where you have extended periods with 39 degrees that go on to become extended periods with 42 degrees. </p>
<p><strong>What were your expectations when you began this project? Did you foresee these dramatic results?</strong></p>
<p>PD: So I had set out to add more weight to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) assessment, thanks to a robust methodology and observations I planned to then adjust. It turned out that our models situated the collapse much earlier than the IPCC’s. Obviously, I would have preferred the outcome of our study was less controversial because we are of course being attacked from all sides now. But that’s how science works, I guess. And this was actually also how Susanne got deeply involved, because it really needed much better statistics that I am capable of. </p>
<p>SD: We also believe that this problem is so important that if we do have indications in the data for an earlier or even considerably earlier collapse than what has been what is generally believed, we do have to put it out. That does not mean that our result is cut in stone. Of course not. Because data is noisy and we have indirect measurements. And of course, for every year we get more data, we can give better estimates.</p>
<p>We have climate changes that have huge implications on earth and also much, much larger implications than what was predicted. Just look at the extreme weather events that we have had this summer and the new temperature records. All this is happening earlier and stronger than what was predicted.</p>
<p><strong>There is indeed a pattern of climate science, in particular the IPCC, showing conservative forecasts. Take, for example, the speed at which the Arctic ice is melting by comparison to their prognosis that it was safe until at least 2050.</strong></p>
<p>SD: They’re always conservative results. And in that sense, you could say that this is one of the reasons also that I think it gives a little more credibility to our study because of course we did not want to go against the IPCC, but they have shown to be conservative in many aspects. </p>
<p><strong>Let’s try to talk about future research on this question. What fields at present are helpful to understand the effect of AMOC?</strong></p>
<p>PD: Yes, so I have been involved for many years in trying to understand the past climate that we see in the paleoclimatic records. From a historic point of view, the largest enigma we had in climate science has long been why ice ages happen.</p>
<p>In some sense, climate change is not really, you know, a puzzle. If you look at global temperature records on the one hand, and greenhouse gas concentration records on the other, they’re pretty much following each other. It’s a boring job that the climate models have there.</p>
<p>But what we see now with more and more frequent extremes, heat waves and storms and floodings, is the possibility of actually hitting a nonlinearity, a tipping point. That’s a much more challenging phenomenon to model. </p>
<p><strong>How can science better grasp the implications of an AMOC tipping point?</strong></p>
<p>SD: We definitely need more measurements of the AMOC. But we also have to understand that we cannot measure back in time. However, since we don’t and cannot have these very, very detailed measurements from pre-industrial times, before global warming, it’s also difficult to assess what the natural variability is and what the natural behaviour is before global warming. </p>
<p>PD: In a way, when you ask what is needed, I would say it’s everything. This is especially the case on the modelling side. I mean, these models would require at least in some sense to reproduce what we’ve seen before.</p>
<p>SD: Yes, and I also think that it’s important to stress how our work complements the very detailed models of the IPCC. One of the reasons why our research has been so criticized is that we don’t have an explanation for the outcome we observe. We know what the driver is, but we don’t have that in our model. </p>
<p>And that is deliberate because we cannot measure the driver in a detailed enough fashion to include it into our model. On the other hand, you could also criticize the big models that are not based on good enough or detailed enough data. There’s a lot of speculation to them. I mean, there are so many variables and so many parameters. So in that sense, our method has a strength of really looking at the data, but without all the mechanisms, and then you have all the models that have all the mechanisms but do not necessarily fit to data. And that combination is extremely important and useful. </p>
<p><strong>But some fields are still managing to gather data by studying past sediments, right?</strong></p>
<p>PD: Yes, we do have huge sediment records. The problem is that in the case of the time scales that we’re looking at, any indications of tipping points will be washed out. This is because the temporal resolution in these records simply isn’t good enough. </p>
<p>But obviously, it would be incredible if someone came up with new types of paleo data. Every now and then, you look at stalagmites and stalactites which look like they could be used… So what we really need now is for smart young people with an open mind to come over, and try new crazy things that the old guys thought were impossible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>If proven correct, the Danish scientists’ scenario could mean the end of life in Europe as we know it.Peter Ditlevsen, Professor in physics of ice, climate and earth, University of CopenhagenSusanne Ditlevsen, Professor in statistics, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082462023-06-23T08:41:04Z2023-06-23T08:41:04ZIntelligence artificielle : prendre en compte ses risques concrets, plutôt que de potentielles menaces existentielles<p>Ces derniers mois, l’intelligence artificielle (IA) a fait l’objet d’un débat mondial en raison de l’adoption généralisée d’outils basés sur l’IA générative, tels que les <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/chatbots-67347">chatbots</a> et les programmes de génération automatique d’images. D’éminents scientifiques et technologues de l’IA pointent les <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/06/19/1075140/how-existential-risk-became-biggest-meme-in-ai/">potentiels risques existentiels</a> posés par ces développements – c’est-à-dire les risques qui menacent la survie de l’humanité.</p>
<p>Nous travaillons dans le domaine de l’IA depuis des décennies et avons été surpris par cette popularité subite et ce sensationnalisme. L’objectif de cet article n’est pas d’antagoniser, mais plutôt d’équilibrer une perception publique qui nous semble dominée par des craintes spéculatives de menaces existentielles liées au développement de systèmes d’IA.</p>
<p>Il ne nous appartient pas de dire que l’on n’a pas le droit, on ne devrait pas s’inquiéter de ces risques existentiels. Mais, en tant que membres du <a href="https://ellis.eu">Laboratoire européen pour l’apprentissage et les systèmes intelligents</a> (ELLIS), un organisme de recherche qui se concentre sur l’apprentissage automatique, nous pensons qu’il nous appartient de mettre ces risques en perspective, en particulier parce que des organisations gouvernementales envisagent de réguler l’IA en prenant en compte les apports des entreprises de la tech.</p>
<h2>Qu’est-ce que l’IA ?</h2>
<p>L’IA est une discipline de l’informatique ou de l’ingénierie informatique qui a pris forme <a href="https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2017/history-artificial-intelligence/">dans les années 1950</a>. Elle vise à construire des systèmes informatiques intelligents, en prenant pour référence l’intelligence humaine. Tout comme l’intelligence humaine est complexe et diversifiée, l’intelligence artificielle comporte de nombreux domaines qui visent à imiter certains aspects de l’intelligence humaine, de la perception au raisonnement, en passant par la planification et la prise de décision.</p>
<p>En fonction du niveau de compétence, les systèmes d’IA peuvent être divisés en trois niveaux :</p>
<p>1.L’IA faible (<em>narrow AI</em> ou <em>weak AI</em> en anglais), qui désigne les systèmes d’IA capables d’effectuer des tâches spécifiques ou de résoudre des problèmes particuliers – souvent avec un niveau de performance supérieur à celui des humains dorénavant. Tous les systèmes d’IA actuels sont des systèmes d’IA faible, y compris les chatbots comme <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/chatgpt-133745">ChatGPT</a>, les assistants vocaux comme Siri et Alexa, les systèmes de reconnaissance d’images et les <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40747-020-00212-w">algorithmes de recommandation</a>.</p>
<p>2.L’IA forte, ou IA générale, qui fait référence aux systèmes d’IA qui présentent un niveau d’intelligence similaire à celui des humains, y compris la capacité de comprendre, d’apprendre et d’appliquer des connaissances à un large éventail de tâches et d’incorporer des concepts tels que la <a href="https://sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/jagi/5/1/article-p1.pdf">conscience</a>. L’IA générale est largement hypothétique et n’a pas été réalisée à ce jour.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/google-a-t-il-developpe-une-ia-consciente-186254">Google a-t-il développé une IA consciente ?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>3.Les <a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence">superintelligences</a> désignent les systèmes d’IA dotés d’une intelligence supérieure à l’intelligence humaine pour toutes les tâches. Par définition, nous sommes incapables de comprendre ce type d’intelligence, de la même manière qu’une fourmi n’est pas en mesure de comprendre notre intelligence. La super IA est un concept encore plus spéculatif que l’IA générale.</p>
<p>L’IA peut être appliquée à tous les domaines, de l’éducation aux transports, en passant par les soins de santé, le droit ou la fabrication. Elle modifie donc profondément tous les aspects de la société. Même sous sa forme « faible », l’IA a un potentiel important pour générer une croissance économique durable et nous aider à <a href="https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-07/ec_rtd_srip-2022-report-chapter-11.pdf">relever les défis les plus urgents</a> du XXI<sup>e</sup> siècle, tels que le changement climatique, les pandémies et les inégalités.</p>
<h2>Les défis posés par les systèmes d’IA actuels</h2>
<p>L’adoption, au cours de la dernière décennie, de systèmes décisionnels basés sur l’IA dans un large éventail de domaines, des réseaux sociaux au marché du travail, pose également des risques et des défis sociétaux importants qu’il convient de comprendre et de relever.</p>
<p>L’émergence récente de grands modèles de « transformateurs génératifs pré-entraînés », plus connus sous leur acronyme anglais GPT, très performants, exacerbe bon nombre des défis existants tout en en créant de nouveaux qui méritent une attention particulière.</p>
<p>De plus, l’ampleur et la rapidité sans précédent avec lesquelles ces outils ont été adoptés par des centaines de millions de personnes dans le monde entier exercent une pression supplémentaire sur nos systèmes sociétaux et réglementaires.</p>
<p>Certains défis d’une importance cruciale devraient être notre priorité :</p>
<ul>
<li><p>La <a href="https://theconversation.com/les-chatbots-peuvent-ils-vraiment-nous-influencer-193341">manipulation du comportement humain par les algorithmes d’IA</a> avec des conséquences sociales potentiellement dévastatrices dans la diffusion de fausses informations, la formation des opinions publiques et les résultats des processus démocratiques.</p></li>
<li><p>Les <a href="https://theconversation.com/emploi-securite-justice-dou-viennent-les-biais-des-ia-et-peut-on-les-eviter-154579">biais et discriminations algorithmiques</a> qui non seulement perpétuent mais exacerbent les stéréotypes, les schémas de discrimination, voire l’oppression.</p></li>
<li><p>Le manque de transparence des modèles et de leur utilisation.</p></li>
<li><p>La violation de la vie privée et l’<a href="https://theconversation.com/exploitation-des-donnees-un-changement-de-contrat-social-a-bas-bruit-199038">utilisation de quantités massives de données de formation sans le consentement ou la compensation de leurs créateurs</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>L’<a href="https://theconversation.com/enquete-derriere-lia-les-travailleurs-precaires-des-pays-du-sud-201503">exploitation des travailleurs</a> qui annotent, forment et corrigent les systèmes d’IA, dont beaucoup se trouvent dans des pays en développement où les salaires sont dérisoires.</p></li>
<li><p>L’<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-020-0219-9">empreinte carbone massive</a> des grands centres de données et des réseaux neuronaux nécessaires à la construction de ces systèmes d’IA.</p></li>
<li><p>Le <a href="https://theconversation.com/beau-parleur-comme-une-ia-196084">manque de véracité des systèmes d’IA générative</a> qui inventent des contenus crédibles (images, textes, audios, vidéos…) sans correspondance avec le monde réel.</p></li>
<li><p>La fragilité de ces grands modèles qui peuvent se tromper et être trompés.</p></li>
<li><p>Le <a href="https://theconversation.com/travail-management-fraude-les-multiples-risques-de-lintelligence-artificielle-pour-les-entreprises-204568">déplacement des emplois</a> et des professions.</p></li>
<li><p>La <a href="https://theconversation.com/souverainete-et-numerique-maitriser-notre-destin-171014">concentration du pouvoir</a> entre les mains d’un oligopole de ceux qui contrôlent les systèmes d’IA d’aujourd’hui.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>L’IA représente-t-elle vraiment un risque existentiel pour l’humanité ?</h2>
<p>Malheureusement, au lieu de se concentrer sur ces risques tangibles, le débat public – et notamment les récentes lettres ouvertes – s’est surtout concentré sur les risques existentiels hypothétiques de l’IA.</p>
<p>Un risque existentiel désigne un événement ou un scénario potentiel qui représente une menace pour la pérennité de l’humanité, avec des conséquences qui pourraient endommager ou détruire la civilisation humaine de manière irréversible, et donc conduire à l’extinction de notre espèce. Un événement catastrophique mondial (comme l’impact d’un astéroïde ou une pandémie), la destruction d’une planète vivable (en raison du changement climatique, de la déforestation ou de l’épuisement de ressources essentielles comme l’eau et l’air pur) ou une guerre nucléaire mondiale sont des exemples de risques existentiels.</p>
<p>[<em>Plus de 85 000 lecteurs font confiance aux newsletters de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde</em>. <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=france&region=fr">Abonnez-vous aujourd’hui</a>]</p>
<p>Notre monde est certainement confronté à un certain nombre de risques, et les développements futurs sont difficiles à prévoir. Face à cette incertitude, nous devons hiérarchiser nos efforts. L’éventualité lointaine d’une superintelligence incontrôlée doit donc être replacée dans son contexte, notamment celui des 3,6 milliards de personnes dans le monde qui sont <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">très vulnérables en raison du changement climatique</a>, du milliard de personnes qui vivent avec moins d’un dollar américain par jour ou des 2 milliards de personnes qui sont <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1089884798/united-nations-conflict-Covid-19-ukraine-myanmar-sudan-syria-yemen">touchées par un conflit</a>. Il s’agit de véritables êtres humains dont la vie est gravement menacée aujourd’hui, un danger qui n’est certainement pas causé par la super IA.</p>
<p>En se concentrant sur un hypothétique risque existentiel, on détourne notre attention des graves défis documentés que l’IA pose aujourd’hui, on n’englobe pas les différentes perspectives de la communauté des chercheurs au sens large, et on contribue à affoler inutilement la population.</p>
<p>Ces questions doivent être traitées dans toutes leurs diversités, complexités et nuances, pour le bien de la société humaine dans son ensemble. La société bénéficierait aussi de solutions concrètes et coordonnées pour relever les défis actuels de l’IA, y compris en termes de <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/fr/press-room/20230609IPR96212/les-deputes-sont-prets-a-negocier-les-regles-pour-une-ia-sure-et-transparente">réglementation</a>. Pour relever ces défis, il faut la collaboration et l’implication des secteurs les plus touchés de la société, ainsi que l’expertise technique et l’expertise de gouvernance nécessaire. Il est temps d’agir maintenant, avec ambition et sagesse, et en coopération.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Les auteurs de cet article sont membres du conseil d’administration du European Lab for Learning & Intelligent Systems (ELLIS).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ELLIS Alicante reçoit des financements de la Generalitat Valenciana, de la Fundacion Banc Sabadell, de la Fundacion Balearia et de la Fundacion Esperanza Pertusa, ainsi que des dons de personnes physiques et juridiques.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernhard Schölkopf a reçu des financements de la Max Planck Society, du DFG, du BMBF (Ministère allemand des sciences), de l'ETH Zürich, de l'état du Baden-Wuerttemberg, de la Hector Foundation, de la Koerber Foundation, et du CIFAR.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florence d'Alché-Buc a reçu des financements de l'ANR, de Hi!Paris et de la Telecom Paris Chair on AI and Data Science for Industry and services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi a reçu des financements du projet de recherche FAIR (Future Artificial Intelligence Research) financé par le programme européen NextGenerationEU au sein du programme PNRR-PE-AI.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serge Belongie a reçu des financements du Pioneer Centre for AI, via la bourse P1 de la Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nada Lavrač et Sepp Hochreiter ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>La question de savoir si l’intelligence artificielle pourrait potentiellement anéantir la civilisation humaine détourne l’attention de défis plus urgents.Nuria Oliver, Directora de la Fundación ELLIS Alicante y profesora honoraria de la Universidad de Alicante, Universidad de AlicanteBernhard Schölkopf, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent SystemsFlorence d'Alché-Buc, Professor, Télécom Paris – Institut Mines-TélécomNada Lavrač, PhD, Research Councillor at Department of Knowledge Technologies, Jožef Stefan Institute and Professor, University of Nova GoricaNicolò Cesa-Bianchi, Professor, University of MilanSepp Hochreiter, Johannes Kepler University LinzSerge Belongie, Professor, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2078422023-06-21T09:58:58Z2023-06-21T09:58:58ZLet’s focus on AI’s tangible risks rather than speculating about its potential to pose an existential threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533116/original/file-20230621-21-mdueqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5590%2C3852&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/robots-reflections-various-colored-lights-1310221252">Shutterstock / gopixa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few months, artificial intelligence (AI) has entered the global conversation as a result of the widespread adoption of generative AI-based tools such as chatbots and automatic image generation programs. Prominent AI scientists and technologists have raised concerns about the <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/06/19/1075140/how-existential-risk-became-biggest-meme-in-ai/">hypothetical existential risks</a> posed by these developments. </p>
<p>Having worked in AI for decades, this surge in popularity and the sensationalism that has followed have caught us by surprise. Our goal with this article is not to antagonise, but to balance the public perception which seems disproportionately dominated by fears of speculative AI-related existential threats. </p>
<p>It’s not our place to say one cannot, or should not, worry about the more exotic risks. As members of the <a href="https://ellis.eu">European Laboratory for Learning and Intelligent Systems</a> (ELLIS), a research-anchored organisation focused on machine learning, we do feel it is our place to put these risks into perspective, particularly in the context of governmental organisations contemplating regulatory actions with input from tech companies.</p>
<h2>What is AI?</h2>
<p>AI is a discipline within computer science or engineering that took shape <a href="https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2017/history-artificial-intelligence/">in the 1950s</a>. Its aspiration is to build intelligent computational systems, taking as a reference human intelligence. In the same way as human intelligence is complex and diverse, there are many areas within artificial intelligence that aim to emulate aspects of human intelligence, from perception to reasoning, planning and decision-making.</p>
<p>Depending on the level of competence, AI systems can be divided into three levels:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Narrow or weak AI, which refers to AI systems that are able to perform specific tasks or solve particular problems, nowadays often with a level of performance superior to humans. All AI systems today are narrow AI. Examples include chatbots like <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt">chatGPT</a>, voice assistants like Siri and Alexa, image recognition systems, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40747-020-00212-w">recommendation algorithms</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>General or strong AI, which refers to AI systems that exhibit a level of intelligence similar to that of humans, including the ability to understand, learn and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks and incorporating concepts such as <a href="https://sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/jagi/5/1/article-p1.pdf">consciousness</a>. General AI is largely hypothetical and has not been achieved to date.
t</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies">Super AI</a>, which refers to AI systems with an intelligence superior to human intelligence on all tasks. By definition, we are unable to understand this kind of intelligence in the same way an ant is not able to understand our intelligence. Super AI is an even more speculative concept than general AI.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>AI can be applied to any field from education to transportation, healthcare, law or manufacturing. Thus, it is profoundly changing all aspects of society. Even in its “narrow AI” form, it has a significant potential to generate sustainable economic growth and help us <a href="https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-07/ec_rtd_srip-2022-report-chapter-11.pdf">tackle the most pressing challenges</a> of the 21st century, such as climate change, pandemics, and inequality.</p>
<h2>Challenges posed by today’s AI systems</h2>
<p>The adoption of AI-based decision-making systems over the last decade on a wide range of domains, from social media to the labour market, also poses significant societal risks and challenges that need to be understood and addressed.</p>
<p>The recent emergence of highly capable large, generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) models exacerbates many of the existing challenges while creating new ones that deserve careful attention. The unprecedented scale and speed with which these tools have been adopted by hundreds of millions of people worldwide is placing further stress on our societal and regulatory systems.</p>
<p>There are some critically important challenges that should be our priority:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-can-now-learn-to-manipulate-human-behaviour-155031">manipulation of human behavior by AI algorithms</a> with potentially devastating social consequences in the spread of false information, the formation of public opinions and the outcomes of democratic processes.</li>
<li>Algorithmic <a href="https://fra.europa.eu/en/publication/2022/bias-algorithm">biases and discrimination</a> that not only perpetuate but exacerbate stereotypes, patterns of discrimination, or even oppression.</li>
<li>The lack of transparency in both models and their uses.</li>
<li>The violation of privacy and the use of massive amounts of training data without consent by or compensation for its creators.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://time.com/6247678/openai-chatgpt-kenya-workers/">exploitation of workers</a> annotating, training, and correcting AI systems, many of whom are in developing countries with meagre wages.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-020-0219-9">massive carbon footprint</a> of the large data centres and neural networks that are needed to build these AI systems.</li>
<li>The lack of truthfulness in generative AI systems that invent believable content (images, texts, audios, videos…) without correspondence to the real world.</li>
<li>The fragility of these large models that can make mistakes and be deceived.</li>
<li>The displacement of jobs and professions.</li>
<li>The concentration of power in the hands of an oligopoly of those controlling today’s AI systems.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Is AI really an existential risk for humanity?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, rather than focusing on these tangible risks, the public conversation – most notably the recent open letters – has mainly focused on hypothetical existential risks of AI.</p>
<p>An existential risk refers to a potential event or scenario that represents a threat to the continued existence of humanity with consequences that could irreversibly damage or destroy human civilisation, and therefore lead to the extinction of our species. A global catastrophic event (such as an asteroid impact or a pandemic), the destruction of a livable planet (due to climate change, deforestation or depletion of critical resources like water and clean air), or a worldwide nuclear war are examples of existential risks.</p>
<p>Our world certainly faces a number of risks, and future developments are hard to predict. In the face of this uncertainty, we need to prioritise our efforts. The remote possibility of an uncontrolled super-intelligence thus needs to be viewed in context, and this includes the context of 3.6 billion people in the world who are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">highly vulnerable due to climate change</a>; the roughly 1 billion people who live on less than 1 US dollar a day; or the 2 billion people who are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1089884798/united-nations-conflict-covid-19-ukraine-myanmar-sudan-syria-yemen">affected by conflict</a>. These are real human beings whose lives are in severe danger today, a danger certainly not caused by super AI.</p>
<p>Focusing on a hypothetical existential risk deviates our attention from the documented severe challenges that AI poses today, does not encompass the different perspectives of the broader research community, and contributes to unnecessary panic in the population.</p>
<p>Society would surely benefit from including the necessary diversity, complexity, and nuance of these issues, and from designing concrete and coordinated actionable solutions to address today’s AI challenges, including <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230609IPR96212/meps-ready-to-negotiate-first-ever-rules-for-safe-and-transparent-ai">regulation</a>. Addressing these challenges requires the collaboration and involvement of the most impacted sectors of society together with the necessary technical and governance expertise. It is time to act now with ambition and wisdom – and in cooperation. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors of this article are members of The European Lab for Learning & Intelligent Systems (ELLIS) Board.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ELLIS Alicante recibe fondos de la Generalitat Valenciana, Fundacion Banc Sabadell, Fundacion Balearia y Fundacion Esperanza Pertusa, además de donativos de distintas personas físicas y jurídicas. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernhard Schölkopf recibe fondos de Max Planck Society, DFG, BMBF (German Ministry of Science), ETH Zürich, the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Hector foundation, Koerber foundation, CIFAR</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florence d'Alché-Buc receives support from ANR, Hi!Paris and the Telecom Paris Chair on AI and Data Science for Industry and services.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi receives support from the FAIR (Future Artificial Intelligence Research) project, funded by the NextGenerationEU program within the PNRR-PE-AI scheme.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serge Belongie receives support from the Pioneer Centre for AI, Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF) grant number P1.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nada Lavrač y Sepp Hochreiter no reciben salarios, ni ejercen labores de consultoría, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del puesto académico citado.</span></em></p>The question of whether artificial intelligence could, hypothetically, wipe out human civilisation is counterproductive and diverts attention from more pressing challenges.Nuria Oliver, Directora de la Fundación ELLIS Alicante y profesora honoraria de la Universidad de Alicante, Universidad de AlicanteBernhard Schölkopf, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent SystemsFlorence d'Alché-Buc, Professor, Télécom Paris – Institut Mines-TélécomNada Lavrač, PhD, Research Councillor at Department of Knowledge Technologies, Jožef Stefan Institute and Professor, University of Nova GoricaNicolò Cesa-Bianchi, Professor, University of MilanSepp Hochreiter, Johannes Kepler University LinzSerge Belongie, Professor, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081252023-06-20T14:20:03Z2023-06-20T14:20:03ZUkraine war: Kremlin’s threat to interfere with undersea data cables may be bluster, but must be taken seriously<p>In what is more than likely to turn out to be an attempt at escalation in the confrontation between Nato and Russia over the war in Ukraine, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev argued recently on his Telegram channel that Russia should have the right to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dmitry-medvedev-threatens-to-cut-off-the-wests-internet-pcsqsk2t3">attack submarine data cables</a>.</p>
<p>Medvedev claimed such rights against the background of recent media reports on the mysterious sabotage of the Nord Stream undersea gas pipeline last year. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-moscow-now-has-free-hand-destroy-enemies-undersea-2023-06-14/">He wrote</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>If we proceed from the proven complicity of western countries in blowing up the Nord Streams, then we have no constraints – even moral – left to prevent us from destroying the ocean-floor cable communications of our enemies.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The question of who was behind the attacks on the pipelines in the Baltic Sea on September 26 2022, however, remains unresolved. Several reports, rumours and conspiracy theories circulate. </p>
<p>There’s some agreement that the time, location and level of sophistication of the attack indicate the involvement or support from a government. But the speculation stretches from <a href="https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream">western special forces</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/07/officials-believe-pro-ukraine-group-sabotage-nord-stream-pipelines">Ukrainian groups</a> being behind the attack to it being a well-orchestrated <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65461401">Russian operation</a>.</p>
<p>In the meantime, none of the official investigations have been concluded and solid evidence that could support any of the narratives remains sparse. The Swedish prosecutor leading one of the investigations <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-prosecutor-hopes-conclude-nord-stream-investigation-autumn-swedish-radio-2023-06-14/">announced on June 14</a> that he hopes to have completed the investigation by autumn.</p>
<h2>Vulnerable undersea cables</h2>
<p>For all his characteristic bluster, which have included <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-western-arms-ukraine-make-nuclear-apocalypse-more-likely-2023-05-23/">threats involving Russia’s nuclear arsenal</a>, Medvedev’s threat should be taken seriously. As we have shown in a <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">report to the European parliament</a> of last year, subsea cables are the backbone of the contemporary digital economy. Almost all of our internet connections depend on them. </p>
<p>According to SubTelForum’s Submarine Cable Almanac as of the beginning of 2023, there were <a href="https://subtelforum.com/almanac/">380 cables in Europe</a> on the ocean floor, mostly the size of a garden hose. They use fibre optic technology to convey information at large distances.</p>
<p>Yet they are easy to cut and get <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/vulnerable-undersea-cables">damaged quite frequently</a>. The industry reports up to <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2022/702557/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557_EN.pdf">100 cable failures annually</a>, mainly caused by fishing activities or the anchors of ships. </p>
<p>This rarely causes serious disruptions. As already established above, there are hundreds of cables on the sea floor and in the case of failure, traffic is swiftly rerouted and a repair ship is sent on its way to fix the damage. </p>
<p>If Russia is serious about its threats to cut cables, the main economic cost would be for repair work. Major disruptions are unlikely.</p>
<p>There are, however, places that are more vulnerable and where the impact would be more extensive. This includes sites where several crucial cables could be attacked at the same time. These are known as “chokepoints”. </p>
<p>For instance, several important cables surface in the port of Marseilles – and the <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/technology/955812/undersea-cables-connect-world-subject-concern">English channel</a> and the <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/submarine-internet-cables-egypt">Red Sea</a> have a high density of cables. Also, island states, <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41086645.html">such as Ireland</a>, are more vulnerable because they do not have terrestrial connections as backup.</p>
<p>So Medvedev’s threat should be taken seriously, but should not be blown out of proportion. </p>
<h2>What’s behind the threat?</h2>
<p>Once thought of as a reasonable politician, who took over as president when Putin was having his “break” from 2008 to 2012 after two terms of presidency, Medvedev has become ever more of a Kremlin stooge. His threat is a continuation of Russia’s strategy of disinformation – an attempt to distract western leaders from events in Ukraine and force security policymakers to worry about their vulnerabilities at home.</p>
<p>Probably, this is also a message to two security events happening in the coming days and weeks and meant to increase the feeling of vulnerability and uncertainty.</p>
<p>At the end of May, Ireland commenced a <a href="https://www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-releases/press-release-archive/2023/may/tanaiste-launches-public-consultation-on-international-security-policy.php">national consultative forum</a> on security – online and on four separate days at the end of June. </p>
<p>Ireland’s foreign minister, Micheál Martin, said the aim was to build public understanding and generate discussions on our foreign, security and defence policies. The particular focus would be on how Ireland wants to respond to the new security environment and whether to seek Nato membership. </p>
<p>As an island with open seas, Ireland is one of the most vulnerable places in Europe in terms of potential internet cable sabotage.</p>
<p>A bit further down the line is the <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_214116.htm">Nato summit</a> taking place in Vilnius, Lithuania, in early July. Subsea cable protection is one of the priority issues on the agenda, and the organization’s new <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_214322.htm">infrastructure protection coordination cell</a> is expected to make recommendations for how the alliance can protect cables better and deter any sabotage.</p>
<p>But a military approach to protection on its own won’t suffice. Close collaboration between the military, civil maritime agencies, communication regulators and the industry is needed. The <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1483">European Maritime Security Strategy</a> expected to be issued by the European Council this summer will be an important step in this direction. The strategy lays out plans for risk analyses, improved surveillance and inter-agency exercises.</p>
<p>Overall, and beyond the immediate Russian threat, the protection of <a href="https://bueger.info/keynote-address-at-symposium-of-european-defence-agency/">critical maritime infrastructures</a>, which also includes wind farms, power cables, hydrogen pipelines and carbon storage projects, needs to become a defining feature in the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ia/iiad124/7198183">global ocean governance agenda</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Bueger receives funding from the Velux Foundation for the Ocean Infrastructure Research Group at the University of Copenhagen. </span></em></p>Russia is threatening to disrupt the world’s undersea data infrastructure. This should be taken seriously.Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079422023-06-18T19:33:29Z2023-06-18T19:33:29ZInteligencia artificial: riesgos reales frente a amenazas hipotéticas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532484/original/file-20230617-19-8r4vfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5573%2C3877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/robots-reflections-various-colored-lights-1310221252">Shutterstock / gopixa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>En los últimos meses, la inteligencia artificial (IA) ha entrado en la conversación mundial a raíz de la adopción generalizada de herramientas de IA generativa –como los chatbots y los programas de generación automática de imágenes– y la consiguiente preocupación suscitada en relación con los hipotéticos riesgos existenciales que plantea.</p>
<p>Habiendo trabajado en IA durante décadas, este aumento de popularidad y el sensacionalismo que le ha seguido nos han pillado por sorpresa. Últimamente no es raro leer titulares como: ¿Puede la inteligencia artificial acabar con la civilización humana? La percepción pública en este asunto parece desproporcionadamente dominada por el miedo a amenazas totalmente especulativas. </p>
<p>Como miembros del <a href="https://ellis.eu">Laboratorio Europeo para el Aprendizaje y los Sistemas Inteligentes</a> (ELLIS), una organización de investigación centrada en el aprendizaje automático, creemos que nos corresponde poner estos riesgos en perspectiva, especialmente en el contexto de las organizaciones gubernamentales que contemplan acciones reguladoras con aportaciones de las empresas tecnológicas.</p>
<h2>¿Qué es la IA?</h2>
<p>La IA es una disciplina dentro de la informática o la ingeniería que tomó forma <a href="https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2017/history-artificial-intelligence/">en la década de 1950</a>. Aspira a construir sistemas computacionales inteligentes que emulen la inteligencia humana, ya de por sí diversa y compleja.</p>
<p>Los sistemas de IA suelen dividirse en <a href="https://ellisalicante.org/ia">tres niveles</a> de competencia:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>La IA específica o débil, que engloba sistemas de IA capaces de realizar tareas específicas o resolver problemas concretos, con un nivel de rendimiento hoy en día superior al de los humanos. Todos los sistemas de IA actuales son IA específica: los chatbots como <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt">chatGPT</a>, los asistentes de voz como Siri y Alexa, los sistemas de reconocimiento de imágenes y los <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40747-020-00212-w">algoritmos de recomendación</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>La IA general o fuerte, que muestra un nivel de inteligencia similar al de los seres humanos, incluida la capacidad de comprender, aprender y aplicar conocimientos en una amplia gama de tareas. Incorpora conceptos como la <a href="https://sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/jagi/5/1/article-p1.pdf">conciencia</a>. La IA general es en gran medida hipotética y no se ha logrado hasta la fecha.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies">Súper IA</a>, que se refiere a sistemas de IA con una inteligencia superior a la humana en todas las tareas. Por definición, somos incapaces de entender este tipo de inteligencia del mismo modo que una hormiga no es capaz de entender la nuestra. La súper IA es un concepto aún más especulativo que la IA general.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>La Inteligencia Artificial es una disciplina transversal que puede aplicarse a cualquier campo, desde la educación al transporte, la sanidad, el derecho o la manufactura. Por tanto, está cambiando profundamente todos los aspectos de la sociedad. Incluso en su forma de “IA específica”, tiene un importante potencial para generar un crecimiento económico sostenible y ayudarnos a <a href="https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-07/ec_rtd_srip-2022-report-chapter-11.pdf">afrontar los retos más acuciantes</a> del siglo XXI, como el cambio climático, las pandemias y la desigualdad.</p>
<h2>Desafíos que plantean los sistemas de IA actuales</h2>
<p>La adopción durante la última década de sistemas de toma de decisiones basados en IA en una amplia gama de áreas –desde las redes sociales hasta el mercado laboral– también plantea importantes riesgos y retos sociales que es necesario comprender y abordar.</p>
<p>La escala y velocidad sin precedentes con que los modelos preentrenados de IA generativa (GPT) han sido adoptados por cientos de millones de personas en todo el mundo está sometiendo a nuestros sistemas sociales y reguladores a una tensión cada vez mayor.</p>
<p>Es evidente que la Inteligencia Artificial plantea importantes retos que deberían ser nuestra prioridad, incluyendo: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>La <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-can-now-learn-to-manipulate-human-behaviour-155031">manipulación del comportamiento humano por algoritmos de IA</a> con consecuencias sociales potencialmente devastadoras en la difusión de información falsa, la formación de opiniones públicas y los resultados de los procesos democráticos.</p></li>
<li><p>Los <a href="https://fra.europa.eu/en/publication/2022/bias-algorithm">sesgos y la discriminación</a> algorítmicos que no sólo perpetúan sino que exacerban los estereotipos, los patrones de discriminación o incluso la opresión.</p></li>
<li><p>La falta de transparencia tanto en los modelos como en sus usos.</p></li>
<li><p>La violación de la privacidad y el uso de cantidades masivas de datos de entrenamiento sin consentimiento ni compensación para sus creadores.</p></li>
<li><p>La <a href="https://time.com/6247678/openai-chatgpt-kenya-workers/">explotación de los trabajadores</a> que anotan, entrenan y corrigen los sistemas de IA, muchos de ellos ubicados en países en desarrollo con salarios miserables.</p></li>
<li><p>La <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-020-0219-9">enorme huella de carbono</a> de los grandes centros de datos y redes neuronales que se necesitan para construir estos sistemas de IA.</p></li>
<li><p>La falta de veracidad de los sistemas de IA generativa que inventan contenidos creíbles (imágenes, textos, audios, vídeos…) sin correspondencia con el mundo real.</p></li>
<li><p>La fragilidad de estos grandes modelos que pueden cometer errores y ser engañados.</p></li>
<li><p>La profunda transformación del mercado laboral con el consecuente desplazamiento de empleos y profesiones.</p></li>
<li><p>La concentración de poder en manos de un oligopolio de quienes controlan hoy los sistemas de IA.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>¿Es realmente la IA un riesgo existencial para la humanidad?</h2>
<p>Por desgracia, en lugar de centrarse en estos riesgos tangibles, la conversación pública –sobre todo las recientes cartas abiertas– se ha centrado principalmente en un hipotético riesgo existencial de la IA.</p>
<p>Un riesgo existencial es un acontecimiento o escenario potencial que representa una amenaza para la existencia continuada de la humanidad, con consecuencias que podrían dañar o destruir irreversiblemente la civilización humana y, por tanto, llevar a la extinción de nuestra especie. Un acontecimiento catastrófico global (por ejemplo, el impacto de un asteroide o una pandemia), la destrucción de un planeta habitable (debido, por ejemplo, al cambio climático, la deforestación o el agotamiento de recursos críticos como el agua y el aire limpio) o una guerra nuclear mundial son ejemplos de riesgos existenciales.</p>
<p>No cabe duda de que nuestra existencia no está exenta de riesgos y de que la evolución futura es difícil de predecir. Ante esta incertidumbre, debemos priorizar nuestros esfuerzos. La remota posibilidad de una súper inteligencia incontrolada debe considerarse en su contexto, y esto incluye el contexto de 3 600 millones de personas en el mundo que son <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">altamente vulnerables debido al cambio climático</a>; los aproximadamente 1 000 millones de personas que viven con menos de 1 dólar al día; o los 2 000 millones de personas <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1089884798/united-nations-conflict-covid-19-ukraine-myanmar-sudan-syria-yemen">afectadas por la guerra, los conflictos y la fragilidad</a>. Se trata de seres humanos reales cuyas vidas corren grave peligro hoy en día, sin que ninguna súper IA intervenga.</p>
<p>Centrarse en un hipotético riesgo existencial desvía nuestra atención de los graves retos documentados que la IA plantea en la actualidad y contribuye a generar un pánico innecesario en la población.</p>
<p>Matizar estas cuestiones, y diseñar soluciones concretas y coordinadas que permitan actuar para afrontar los retos actuales reales de la IA, incluyendo la <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230609IPR96212/meps-ready-to-negotiate-first-ever-rules-for-safe-and-transparent-ai">regulación</a>, es fundamental. Abordar estos retos requiere la colaboración y participación de los sectores más afectados de la sociedad, junto con los necesarios conocimientos técnicos y de gobernanza. Es hora de actuar con ambición, sabiduría y en cooperación. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Los autores de este artículo son miembros del Consejo del Laboratorio Europeo de Aprendizaje y Sistemas Inteligentes (ELLIS).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207942/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>La Fundación unidad ELLIS Alicante recibe financiación de la Generalitat Valenciana, la Fundacion Banc Sabadell, la Fundacion Balearia, la Fundacion Esperanza Pertusa y donativos de personas físicas y jurídicas. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernhard Schölkopf recibe fondos de Max Planck Society, DFG, BMBF (German Ministry of Science), ETH Zürich, the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Hector foundation, Koerber foundation, CIFAR.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florence d'Alché-Buc es miembro del Consejo del Laboratorio Europeo de Aprendizaje y Sistemas Inteligentes (ELLIS).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nada Lavrač es miembro del Consejo del Laboratorio Europeo de Aprendizaje y Sistemas Inteligentes (ELLIS).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi recibe fondos del proyecto FAIR (Future Artificial Intelligence Research) project, financiado por el programa NextGenerationEU program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sepp Hochreiter es miembro del Consejo del Laboratorio Europeo de Aprendizaje y Sistemas Inteligentes (ELLIS).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serge Belongie recibe fondos de Pioneer Centre for AI, Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF) grant number P1.</span></em></p>Plantearnos si la inteligencia artificial podría, hipotéticamente, acabar con la civilización humana, es contraproducente. Porque desvía nuestra atención de los graves retos reales que la IA plantea en la actualidad y genera un pánico innecesario.Nuria Oliver, Directora de la Fundación ELLIS Alicante y profesora honoraria de la Universidad de Alicante, Universidad de AlicanteBernhard Schölkopf, Max Planck Institute of Animal BehaviorFlorence d'Alché-Buc, Chair professor, Télécom Paris – Institut Mines-TélécomNada Lavrač, PhD, Research Councillor at Department of Knowledge Technologies, Jožef Stefan Institute and Professor, University of Nova GoricaNicolò Cesa-Bianchi, Professor, University of MilanSepp Hochreiter, Johannes Kepler University LinzSerge Belongie, Professor, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057352023-05-24T17:31:30Z2023-05-24T17:31:30ZThaïlande : en avant vers la démocratie ?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526614/original/file-20230516-27-speuu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C53%2C5991%2C3934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pita Limjaroenrat lors du dernier grand meeting de campagne de son parti Move Forward à Bangkok, 13&nbsp;mai 2023. Le lendemain, cette formation démocratique d’opposition arrivera en tête des élections législatives.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brickinfo Media/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Les <a href="https://www.thailande-fr.com/politique/124597-resultats-preliminaires-des-elections-en-thailande">élections législatives tenues le 14 mai dernier</a> ont marqué un tournant dans l’histoire moderne de la Thaïlande. La victoire est revenue au parti progressiste de la jeune génération, Phak Kao Klai, souvent désigné sous son nom anglais Move Forward (<em>Aller de l’avant</em>), qui a obtenu 151 sièges sur les 500 que compte l’Assemblée législative, chambre basse du Parlement bicaméral du pays.</p>
<p>Le scrutin aura été une déconvenue pour Pheu Thai (<em>Pour les Thaïlandais</em>), l’autre grand parti d’opposition, fondé par l’ancien premier ministre <a href="https://www.cairn.info/idees-recues-sur-la-thailande--9791031802756-page-63.htm">Thaksin Shinawatra</a>, en exil depuis quinze ans et qui espérait pouvoir revenir au pays suite à ces élections. Pheu Thai, qui annonçait depuis le début de la campagne qu’il remporterait une victoire écrasante, est finalement arrivé en deuxième position, avec 141 sièges. </p>
<p>Les autres grands perdants de ces élections sont les partis conservateurs, monarchistes et militaristes. Associés au pouvoir militaire en place depuis le <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-etrangere-2014-3-page-135.htm">coup d’État de 2014</a>, ils n’ont pas su séduire l’électorat. Ils avaient notamment basé leur communication sur un argument qui ne semble plus fonctionner chez les électeurs : il faut protéger la nation, la religion et le roi, plus que la démocratie.</p>
<p>Le peuple s’est exprimé : il souhaite la fin de l’hégémonie des militaires sur la politique thaïlandaise. Mais le régime sortant est-il prêt à l’entendre et à céder les rênes du pays ?</p>
<h2>Hier comme aujourd’hui, une armée omniprésente dans le jeu politique</h2>
<p>Dans les semaines qui ont précédé les élections, de nombreuses informations ont circulé concernant la possible dissolution des partis Move Forward et Pheu Thai, pour divers prétextes – parts dans des sociétés privées détenues par leurs dirigeants, supposés achats de votes, affiches non conformes…</p>
<p>En outre, il est également envisageable, même à ce stade, que les <a href="https://www.thaienquirer.com/49605/more-rumors-that-ec-wants-to-nullify-elections/">élections soient annulées</a> par la Commission électorale, pour de prétendues irrégularités, ce qui permettrait au gouvernement en place, conduit par le général Prayut Chan-ocha, premier ministre depuis le putsch de 2014, de rester en poste. Sans compter que, conformément à la <a href="https://www.wipo.int/wipolex/fr/legislation/details/21500">Constitution de 2017</a>, adoptée sous les auspices de Prayut Chan-ocha, les 250 membres du Sénat votent au même titre que les 500 députés de l’Assemblée législative pour élire le premier ministre. Ces sénateurs, qui ont été désignés par le gouvernement de Prayut, pourraient faire pencher la balance en faveur du régime en place, au détriment des partis pro-démocratie arrivés en tête aux élections.</p>
<p>Enfin, le dernier recours envisageable est le coup d’État, <a href="https://asialyst.com/fr/2017/09/18/memo-coups-etat-thailande-10-points/">dans un pays qui en a connu 13 réussis</a>, ainsi que de nombreuses autres tentatives infructueuses, depuis la fin de la monarchie absolue en 1932.</p>
<figure>
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<p>En 2001 et en 2005, le parti <a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_rak_Thai">Thai Rak Thai</a> (le parti <em>Des Thaïlandais qui aiment les Thaïlandais</em>), du magnat milliardaire Thaksin Shinawatra, avait remporté les élections nationales. Cette formation étant considérée comme une menace pour le « double régime » de la monarchie et de l’armée, un coup d’État militaire a renversé le gouvernement en 2006. Thaksin Shinawatra vit depuis en exil, mais est toujours resté très actif en politique.</p>
<p>Après la dissolution de Thai Rak Thai, il a créé un nouveau parti, le Phak Phalang Prachachon (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Power_Party_(Thailand)"><em>Parti du pouvoir du peuple</em></a>). Celui-ci a remporté les élections nationales de 2007… avant d’être interdit par la Cour constitutionnelle. Mais Thaksin n’en est pas resté là et a alors lancé Pheu Thai, lequel a remporté les élections nationales de 2011, puis a été évincé par le coup d’État militaire de 2014. En Thaïlande, il est important d’avoir un « parti de rechange » : une dissolution est vite arrivée.</p>
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<p>Après sa prise de pouvoir en 2014, le général Prayut Chan-ocha a <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-monde-chinois-2018-2-page-85.htm">régné en tant que dictateur pendant cinq ans</a>. Des élections législatives ont ensuite eu lieu en 2019, remportées par Pheu Thai. Mais le parti Palang Pracharat (<em>Le pouvoir pour le peuple thaï</em>), dont Prayut Chan-ocha était le candidat pour le poste de premier ministre à l’époque, a pu rassembler suffisamment de sièges au Parlement, négociant avec différentes autres formations, pour former un gouvernement. Prayut a donc pu rester au pouvoir.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528048/original/file-20230524-27-d46zkm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dernier meeting de campagne du parti Ruam Thai Sang Chart. Prayut Chan-ocha brandit le drapeau du parti.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Duncan McCargo</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ces élections de 2019 ont vu la montée en puissance d’un nouveau parti, Future Forward, représentant la jeune génération, qui a pris la troisième place, avec 81 sièges. Le parti a été dissous un an plus tard par la Cour constitutionnelle pour avoir <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/thai-court-dissolves-opposition-party-future-forward">« violé les règles électorales en recevant un prêt d’argent illégal »</a>. Des accusations largement considérées comme politiquement motivées.</p>
<h2>Le peuple dans la rue, le peuple dans les urnes</h2>
<p>L’interdiction de Future Forward avait entraîné d’importantes manifestations, principalement à Bangkok, de 2020 à 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/les-etudiants-tha-landais-face-au-triangle-armee-constitution-royaute-145114">Dirigées par des groupes d’étudiants</a>, des dizaines de milliers de personnes sont descendues dans la rue pour demander la démission du général Prayut, une nouvelle Constitution et une réforme de la monarchie. Pour la première fois depuis la fin de la monarchie absolue en 1932, le peuple thaïlandais se mobilisait dans les rues.</p>
<p>Les manifestants exigeaient une réforme de la monarchie. Ils protestaient notamment contre <a href="https://freedom.ilaw.or.th/en/freedom-of-expression-101/QA-112">l’article 112</a> du code pénal, qui punit le crime de lèse-majesté et dont le régime soutenu par l’armée abuse pour faire taire les opposants, les dissidents, les médias et la jeunesse thaïlandaise.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UrKfLUtWcr8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Thaïlande : manifestations pro-démocratie à Bangkok (France 24, 14 octobre 2020).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Face aux gaz lacrymogènes, aux flashballs, aux canons à eau, mais aussi face aux poursuites judiciaires, déclenchées en vertu de l’<a href="https://freedom.ilaw.or.th/en/freedom-of-expression-101/QA-112">article 112</a> et de <a href="https://freedom.ilaw.or.th/en/blog/section-116-when-%E2%80%98sedition%E2%80%99-used-obstruction-freedom-expression">l’article 116</a> du code pénal (qui punit la « sédition »), les manifestations ont fini par se calmer.</p>
<p>L’opposition au gouvernement a néanmoins su se faire entendre, comme en témoigne l’élection du nouveau gouverneur de Bangkok en mai 2022, quand le <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/bangkoks-new-governor-is-sending-shockwaves-through-thailands-political-landscape/">candidat indépendant Chadchart Sittipun</a> a remporté une victoire écrasante. Les médias thaïlandais libéraux ont qualifié l’élection de Chadchart de <a href="https://www.khaosodenglish.com/opinion/2022/05/29/opinion-chadcharts-victory-gives-hope-to-not-just-bangkok-but-thai-democracy/">victoire pour la démocratie</a>.</p>
<h2>Le vote n’est que la première étape</h2>
<p>Rappelons que la Thaïlande est un régime <a href="https://www.senate.go.th/view/1/About/EN-US">parlementaire multipartite</a> avec 64 partis ayant concouru pour 500 sièges lors des élections de ce 14 mai.</p>
<p>En 2019, 350 des 500 députés de l’Assemblée législative avaient été élus par les circonscriptions, et les 150 autres à la proportionnelle, sur des listes présentées par des partis. Le bon résultat enregistré cette année-là par le très populaire parti Future Forward, notamment grâce au scrutin de liste, avait suscité l’inquiétude des conservateurs au pouvoir, qui ont donc, nous l’avons dit, décidé de l’interdire. Mais les membres de Future Forward avaient un parti de rechange en cas de dissolution de leur parti : Move Forward. </p>
<p>Pour enrayer la montée de Move Forward, le pouvoir a décidé qu’aux élections de 2023, 400 députés seraient désignés via le vote dans les circonscriptions et les 100 autres à travers les liste de partis – un rééquilibrage qui visait à favoriser les puissants barons politiques régionaux, influents dans les circonscriptions, et à contrecarrer la montée en puissance de Move Forward, parti jeune dont l’implantation locale est moins forte. Pourtant, celui-ci est arrivé en tête le 14 mai. Mais gagner les élections ne garantit pas de pouvoir former un gouvernement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528047/original/file-20230524-21-c7vzau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pita Limjaroenrat s’adressant à la presse pendant la campagne électorale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Duncan McCargo</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Comme en 2019, les 250 sénateurs non élus voteront aux côtés des 500 députés nouvellement élus pour désigner le prochain premier ministre. Lors des élections de 2019, ils ont soutenu à l’unanimité le général Prayut Chan-ocha, et la plupart d’entre eux restent ses fidèles partisans.</p>
<p>Si la Thaïlande s’est dotée d’une Constitution, d’un système électoral et d’un Parlement, les membres de l’establishment ne se sont pas dotés de valeurs démocratiques pour autant. Dans les coulisses, les différents barons de la politique s’affairent à trouver un subterfuge pour contrer la victoire de Move Forward. </p>
<h2>Des surprises à venir</h2>
<p>Fondé par le magnat des affaires Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit (né en 1978), Future Forward représentait un nouvel espoir démocratique pour les Thaïlandais, en particulier les jeunes. Après sa dissolution, Thanathorn et d’autres cadres du parti ayant été interdits de toute activité politique pendant dix ans, c’est un autre jeune magnat des affaires qui a pris la tête du Move Forward Party, <a href="https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/40026043">Pita Limjaroenrat</a> (né en 1980). </p>
<p>Move Forward a fait campagne sur le thème du « changement », promettant un État-providence, la justice sociale et l’amendement du très controversé article 112. Cette posture de parti anti-régime a séduit le segment progressiste de la société et les jeunes électeurs. Mais elle inquiète l’establishment thaïlandais qui, répétons-le, tente d’empêcher le parti de former un gouvernement.</p>
<p>Actuellement, Move Forward cherche à former un gouvernement avec d’autres partis, y compris d’anciens partis d’opposition et des nouveaux partis. Le parti a besoin de 376 sièges pour pouvoir former un gouvernement et s’assurer que Pita soit premier ministre. Move Forward a donc besoin du vote des sénateurs et d’autres partis. </p>
<p>Certains partis de premier plan ont déclaré ne pas soutenir un gouvernement formé par Move Forward. C’est le cas du parti <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party">Bhumjaithai</a> (Parti <em>De la fierté thaïe</em>), arrivé en troisième position le 14 mai 2023. Bhumjaithai a déclaré que la position de Move Forward sur la monarchie et le crime de lèse-majesté était contraire à son projet, qui est de <a href="https://www.thaipbsworld.com/bhumjaithai-will-not-vote-for-move-forwards-pm-candidate-rejects-any-change-to-lese-majeste-law/">protéger la monarchie au mieux de ses capacités</a>. </p>
<p>L’histoire thaïlandaise l’a prouvé maintes fois, la démocratie n’est pas une option pour les conservateurs. Comme le parti du général Prayut l’a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=639599454879233&set=a.366191288886719">communiqué</a> lors de la campagne électorale : « Vous devez protéger le pays et non la démocratie. Le pays doit passer en premier, car s’il n’y a pas de nation, la démocratie n’est rien. »</p>
<p>Si Move Forward n’arrive pas à former un gouvernement, le choix se portera peut-être sur Pheu Thai. Dans les coulisses de la politique thaïlandaise, l’agitation bat son plein, mais pas forcément dans le sens d’une démocratisation. Mais que les politiques décident d’aller de l’avant ou de retourner en arrière, le peuple a parlé : c’est la démocratie qu’il a choisie.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Les élections qui viennent de se tenir en Thaïlande se sont soldées par la victoire de deux partis d’opposition. Les militaires au pouvoir risquent toutefois de refuser de s’effacer…Alexandra Colombier, Spécialiste des médias en Thaïlande, Université Le Havre NormandieDuncan McCargo, Directeur de l'Institut nordique d'études asiatiques et professeur de sciences politiques, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057622023-05-19T14:52:43Z2023-05-19T14:52:43ZEarliest evidence of kissing pushed back 1,000 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526832/original/file-20230517-22717-1nqed9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C6985%2C4688&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kissing may seem natural, but it remains unclear whether it's a universal human act, or a cultural one.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/your-kisses-make-me-melt-shot-2148946681">PeopleImages.com - Yuri A / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lip kissing is an act that’s so natural and common in many present-day societies it is easily taken for granted. But it’s not actually clear whether people have always been kissing, or whether its origins lie in the relatively recent past. </p>
<p>It turns out that the history and causes for kissing are more complex than anticipated. In an article <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf0512">published in the journal Science</a>, we analysed substantial amounts of overlooked evidence that challenge current beliefs that <a href="https://books.google.dk/books?hl=da&lr=&id=rzKwAgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=the+history+of+the+kiss+&ots=GyvoQAYztH&sig=L04WOqKuO1E4p3T1XdcAcIxytog&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=the%20history%20of%20the%20kiss&f=false">the first record of romantic-sexual kissing</a> is from India around 1500BC.</p>
<p>Instead, lip kissing is documented in ancient Mesopotamia – present-day Iraq and Syria – from at least 2500BC onwards. This basically means that the recorded history of romantic-sexual kissing is at least 1,000 years older than the previous earliest known date.</p>
<h2>Why do we kiss?</h2>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-013-0190-1">Evolutionary anthropologists</a> have suggested that lip kissing evolved to evaluate a potential mate’s suitability, through chemical cues communicated in saliva or breath. Other proposed purposes for kissing include bringing about feelings of attachment and facilitating sexual arousal.</p>
<p>Lip kissing is also seen in our closest living relatives, chimpanzees and bonobos. This suggests that the behaviour could be much older than our current earliest evidence in humans.</p>
<p>People in ancient Mesopotamia may have invented writing for the first time, though it was roughly contemporary with its invention in ancient Egypt as well. The earliest Mesopotamian writing is from around 3200BC, from the city of Uruk, now in southern Iraq. </p>
<p>The script is called cuneiform, and it was inscribed on moist clay tablets with reeds cut into a little triangular shape. Originally, the script was used to write Sumerian, a language with no known relationship with any other. Later, it was adapted to write Akkadian, an ancient Semitic language. </p>
<p>Though the earliest texts we find are mainly linked to administrative practices, and largely reflect the mechanics of bureaucracy, people developed this mode of writing in subsequent centuries to include other genres of texts. </p>
<p>In the first half of the third millennium BC, myths and incantations materialise in these texts, and even later, private documents about ordinary people. Some of the earliest sources mentioning the lip kiss can be found in mythological texts concerning acts by the gods that date to around 2500BC. </p>
<h2>Early records</h2>
<p>In one of these earliest instances, described on the so-called Barton Cylinder, a Mesopotamian clay artifact inscribed with cuneiform, two deities are said to have <a href="https://pf.ku.dk/?pure=en%2Fpublications%2Fthe-barton-cylinder(70394cd0-74ce-11db-bee9-02004c4f4f50)%2Fexport.html">intercourse and kiss</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>with the goddess Ninhursag, he had intercourse. He kissed her. The semen of seven twins he impregnated into her womb.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cuneiform text on the Barton Cylinder." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=963&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=963&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=963&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1210&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1210&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527176/original/file-20230519-29-pctspw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1210&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The text on the Barton Cylinder describes romantic kissing as far back as 2,500BC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aage Westerholtz</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Later sources, such as proverbs, an erotic dialogue between a man and a woman, and a legal text, form the general impression that kissing in relation to sex, family and friendship was likely an ordinary part of everyday life in central parts of the ancient Middle East from the late third millennium BC onwards.</p>
<p>Still, it seems that romantic-sexual kissing in the open street may have been frowned upon, and it’s possible that it was preferably practised between married couples. Society probably had a number of such social norms regarding ideal behaviour. But the fact that such norms existed point to a widespread practice.</p>
<h2>Single point of origin?</h2>
<p>Evidence suggests that the lip kiss was practised at least in the ancient Middle East and India. This contrasts with previous observations about humanity’s earliest history of kissing. A manuscript from India dated to about 1500BC, for example, has has previously been used to propose that the kiss was brought as a cultural practice westward from there. The older evidence from Mesopotamia suggests we can dismiss that scenario.</p>
<p>Considering the wide geographical distribution of the romantic-sexual kiss in ancient times, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf0512">we believe</a> that the kiss had multiple origins. And even if one were to search for a single point from where the kiss originated, one would have to find it millennia ago in prehistoric times.</p>
<p><a href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aman.12286#aman12286">A recent anthropological study</a> has shown that the romantic-sexual kiss is not universal. However, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf0512">there is ancient written documentation</a> suggesting a tendency for its practice in societies with complex social hierarchies.</p>
<p>This raises a question over how widely used the sexual kiss was in the ancient world, especially in societies that cannot be traced because they did not use writing. Although some societies may not have practised the romantic-sexual kiss, we argue it must have been known in most ancient cultures, for example due to cultural contacts. </p>
<p>But if future research should show that lip kissing cannot be considered near-universal in the ancient world, it will be interesting to consider the reasons why this was not a common practice. Surprisingly, the history and culture of kissing is a complex tale with many aspects yet to be revealed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Lund Rasmussen has received funding from the Edubba Foundation and the Carlsberg Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Troels Pank Arbøll has received funding from the Edubba Foundation and the Carlsberg Foundation.</span></em></p>Researchers examined whether kissing is an innate human activity or whether its origins are relatively recent.Sophie Lund Rasmussen, Postdoctoral fellow, University of OxfordTroels Pank Arbøll, Assistant Professor in Assyriology, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050812023-05-04T20:16:49Z2023-05-04T20:16:49ZNavire espion russe en mer du Nord : quelles menaces pour les infrastructures sous-marines ?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524460/original/file-20230504-27-5ym9v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C13%2C4336%2C2474&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Le navire de recherche océanographique Amiral Vladimirsky, photographié ici en 2019 à Kronstadt, aurait été récemment vu en mer du Nord en février dernier. Il est soupçonné d'être utilisé pour des activités d'espionnage,
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexander Chizhenok/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Un <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QFW3kLDo_M">documentaire</a> produit par un collectif de radiodiffuseurs publics de Suède, du Danemark, de Finlande et de Norvège a révélé ce qui apparaît comme une menace profonde pour les infrastructures énergétiques et de communication en mer du Nord et dans la région de la Baltique.</p>
<p>Le documentaire <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-ghost-ships-prepare-sabotage-of-britain-in-the-north-sea-t2gll75t6"><em>The Shadow War</em></a> montre notamment un navire de recherche russe, l’Amiral Vladimirsky, qui recueillerait des données sur des parcs éoliens, des gazoducs, des câbles électriques et des câbles Internet.</p>
<p>Le film, qui a fait l’objet d’une <a href="https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/entreprises/defense/un-documentaire-evoque-la-preparation-de-sabotages-d-infrastructures-sous-marines-europeennes-par-la-russie_AN-202304190605.html">large couverture médiatique</a>, affirme que la Russie cartographie systématiquement les infrastructures maritimes en mer du Nord afin d’en identifier les points faibles – par exemple, les endroits où se croisent les pipelines et les câbles Internet sous-marins, ce qui faciliterait une opération de sabotage si le Kremlin le jugeait nécessaire.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1648813419099824129"}"></div></p>
<p>Ces révélations n’apprennent rien de nouveau aux experts en sécurité maritime : nous savons depuis longtemps que les forces russes cartographient les infrastructures maritimes, notamment les parcs éoliens, les câbles de communication et les pipelines. Même dans les années 1990 et 2000, lorsque l’OTAN et la Russie coopéraient sur certaines questions de sécurité, les <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2015/11/03/01003-20151103ARTFIG00009-les-cables-sous-marins-objet-de-toute-l-attention-de-l-armee-russe.php">activités d’espionnage russes dans les eaux nordiques</a> n’avaient pas cessé. En 2013, j’ai embarqué sur un navire de la Royal Navy en mer du Nord, dont la mission consistait notamment à repérer les navires espions russes.</p>
<p>Mais depuis l’occupation de la Crimée par la Russie en 2014, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1907129">ces activités se sont intensifiées</a>. Dans les eaux européennes, y compris dans les eaux irlandaises et portugaises et en Méditerranée, des <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">navires russes ont été repérés</a> en train de mener des opérations de renseignement.</p>
<h2>Le sabotage du gazoduc Nord Stream</h2>
<p>En septembre 2022, le <a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-how-an-attack-could-have-been-carried-out-and-why-europe-was-defenceless-191895">sabotage du gazoduc Nord Stream</a>, qui a gravement endommagé cet important gazoduc dans la mer Baltique, et dont les responsables n’ont toujours pas été identifiés, a suscité de vives inquiétudes à l’Ouest quant aux dommages qu’une puissance hostile pourrait causer en détruisant ou en perturbant des infrastructures énergétiques ou de communication disposées au fond des mers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/si-la-russie-coupe-les-cables-sous-marins-leurope-peut-perdre-son-acces-a-internet-169858">Si la Russie coupe les câbles sous-marins, l’Europe peut perdre son accès à Internet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>L’OTAN et l’UE ont mis en place des plans ambitieux pour améliorer la résilience des infrastructures maritimes. Les deux organisations ont créé de nouveaux <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212887.htm">groupes de travail</a> et <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211919.htm">organes de coordination</a> afin d’élaborer de meilleures stratégies de protection et de coordonner les agences civiles et militaires.</p>
<p>[<em>Près de 80 000 lecteurs font confiance à la newsletter de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde</em>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/newsletters/la-newsletter-quotidienne-5?utm_source=inline-70ksignup">Abonnez-vous aujourd'hui</a>]</p>
<p>En mars, la Commission européenne a publié un plan d’action ambitieux dans le cadre de la <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1483">stratégie de sécurité maritime de l’UE</a> actualisée. Il prévoit des études pour identifier les vulnérabilités les plus graves et pour améliorer leur surveillance. Mais tous ces projets vont-ils assez loin ?</p>
<h2>Pourquoi la mer du Nord est-elle si importante ?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/la-mer-du-nord-suscite-toujours-lappetit-des-petroliers-1138066">Les réserves de gaz et de pétrole de la mer du Nord</a> constituent une ressource importante pour l’ensemble du marché européen de l’énergie.</p>
<p>Les efforts croissants consacrés à la production d’énergie verte renforcent encore cette dimension stratégique. Plus de <a href="https://map.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/">40 parcs éoliens</a> sont implantés dans la région et, les conditions étant idéales pour l’énergie éolienne, les installations se développent continuellement et rapidement. La mer du Nord joue donc un rôle essentiel pour réduire la dépendance des pays européens aux combustibles fossiles et diminuer les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Carte montrant les mouvements d’un navire russe dans la mer Baltique et la mer du Nord" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le documentaire retrace les mouvements du « navire espion » russe Amiral Vladimirsky.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Shadow War</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Compte tenu des soupçons qui pèsent aujourd’hui sur les services de renseignement russes et les activités de sabotage possibles, la mer du Nord doit désormais être considérée comme un espace particulièrement vulnérable.</p>
<p>Un acte de sabotage concerté, endommageant les câbles électriques sous-marins, par exemple, peut considérablement nuire aux marchés de l’énergie. La coupure des câbles de données sous-marins peut limiter la connectivité Internet, y compris de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique, puisque d’importants câbles de données relient, par exemple, le Danemark et les États-Unis.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EGWYbyvTF2Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Les réparations en mer sont coûteuses car elles nécessitent des navires spécialisés, qui ne peuvent opérer que si les conditions météorologiques le permettent. Or la mer du Nord constitue un environnement difficile.</p>
<p>Les initiatives récentes de l’OTAN et de l’UE sont axées sur <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/156255">l’amélioration de la surveillance</a>. Elles visent à améliorer la détection des activités suspectes, telles que celles rapportées par le film documentaire nordique. Les satellites, les radars et les patrouilles, y compris de drones, la vidéosurveillance de toutes les infrastructures mais aussi les contributions des usagers de la mer, tels que les pêcheurs qui signalent des activités suspectes, peuvent grandement contribuer à <a href="https://www.safeseas.net/themes/mda/">améliorer la sensibilisation générale</a>.</p>
<p>Cela peut contribuer à des réponses rapides et peut également avoir un effet dissuasif. L’échange d’informations entre États et entre les puissances publiques et les industriels est primordial. L’OTAN, l’UE, le Royaume-Uni et la Norvège doivent travailler en étroite collaboration, car aucun d’entre eux ne peut se charger seul de la sécurité des mers nordiques. Il est nécessaire de rassembler différentes sources d’information afin d’identifier les déplacements de navires suspects.</p>
<h2>Importance d’une réparation rapide</h2>
<p>La question des réparations des infrastructures endommagées est un aspect souvent négligé. Pourtant, en cas de dégradation de ces infrastructures, il est essentiel de pouvoir réparer les dégâts le plus rapidement possible afin de revenir à la normale. De plus, s’il existe une capacité de réparation avérée dans la région, cela réduit la valeur stratégique – et donc la probabilité – d’une attaque.</p>
<p>Mais à l’heure actuelle, ces capacités de réparation essentielles, telles que les navires de réparation spécialisés et les dépôts de câbles, sont <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">très limitées en Europe</a>.</p>
<p>De nouveaux modèles de collaboration entre les reponsables des politiques sécuritaires et les industriels sont nécessaires pour développer des capacités de réparation à la hauteur du danger. Il pourrait s’agir de partenariats public-privé qui exploiteraient des navires de réparation et seraient susceptibles de réagir rapidement et de façon adéquate en cas de crise. Cela présenterait le double avantage d’améliorer les capacités de réparation et, peut-être, en même temps, d’améliorer l’efficacité des infrastructures concernées, en réduisant les temps de réparation – en mer du Nord et ailleurs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205081/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Bueger a reçu des financements de la Fondation Velux pour effectuer des recherches sur les infrastructures maritimes.</span></em></p>Un navire russe aurait récemment recueilli des données sur les infrastructures énergétiques et de communication en mer du Nord et dans la mer Baltique.Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032652023-04-24T16:36:09Z2023-04-24T16:36:09ZEl inflamasoma, un factor clave y poco conocido de la infertilidad humana<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522575/original/file-20230424-18-yu0js8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7076%2C3623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-illustration/fertility-reproduction-concept-microscopic-sperm-spermatozoa-2108713973">Lightspring / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ahora que la covid-19 empieza a estar bajo control, la <a href="https://theconversation.com/es/topics/infertilidad-62761">infertilidad</a> aparece en el horizonte como una nueva pandemia que puede ser todavía más peligrosa para el futuro de la humanidad. Según la Organización Mundial de la Salud, <a href="https://www.who.int/es/news/item/04-04-2023-1-in-6-people-globally-affected-by-infertility">una de cada seis personas adultas</a> padece esterilidad en el mundo.</p>
<p>Se habla mucho de los problemas demográficos y económicos que supondrá la baja natalidad en los países occidentales en un futuro cercano, y de cómo el estilo de vida actual desincentiva la reproducción. Sin embargo, la población apenas está informada sobre las causas de los problemas de fertilidad que truncan los planes de muchas personas que sí deciden tener descendencia pero no pueden. </p>
<p>Además, casi ningún sistema de salud público del mundo financia las soluciones disponibles actualmente para prevenir, diagnosticar y tratar la infertilidad, por lo que las personas afectadas tienen que afrontar unos gastos elevadísimos.</p>
<h2>¿Por qué se produce?</h2>
<p>La <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/infertility">infertilidad</a> se define como una enfermedad del sistema reproductivo, femenino o masculino. Se diagnostica ante la imposibilidad de conseguir un embarazo después de mantener relaciones sexuales habituales como mínimo doce meses sin usar métodos anticonceptivos. </p>
<p>Sus causas son múltiples, y entre ellas se cuentan <a href="https://www.nichd.nih.gov/health/topics/infertility/conditioninfo/causes/age">la edad</a> (la fertilidad femenina disminuye gradualmente a partir de los 30 años); <a href="https://espanol.nichd.nih.gov/salud/temas/infertility/informacion/estilo-vida">factores ambientales</a> como el estrés, la contaminación, el consumo sustancias tóxicas o la depresión; o las <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5193130/">infecciones de transmisión sexual</a>, desencadenadas por diversos virus, bacterias y hongos. </p>
<p>Tampoco hay que olvidar los factores genéticos y las patologías derivadas de ellos. El envejecimiento de los ovarios, el <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33525681/">daño testicular asociado a varicocele</a> (dilatación de las venas del escroto), la <a href="https://theconversation.com/una-posible-explicacion-al-origen-de-la-endometriosis-139334">endometriosis</a>, el síndrome del ovario poliquístico o el aborto espontáneo de repetición son solo algunos ejemplos de estos trastornos que dificultan la reproducción. Y todos tienen un punto en común: la inflamación desempeña un papel muy importante.</p>
<h2>Y aquí llega el inflamasoma</h2>
<p>La inflamación es una respuesta inmunitaria normal de una parte de nuestro cuerpo a una herida, lesión o infección. Este proceso suele acabar al poco de producirse el daño, ya que en caso de mantenerse durante un tiempo prolongado puede ocasionarnos los inconvenientes ya conocidos de las enfermedades inflamatorias crónicas. </p>
<p>Hoy se sabe que mantener el <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3107847/">equilibrio</a> entre los mediadores que promueven y evitan la inflamación es fundamental para mantener una fertilidad efectiva.</p>
<p>Teniendo en cuenta las bases moleculares de todos los procesos inflamatorios que pueden afectar a nuestra capacidad de reproducirnos, la contribución del inflamasoma es la que más inadvertida ha pasado durante años. Hablamos de un complejo formado por el ensamblaje de muchas proteínas que se encuentra en el <a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citosol">citosol</a>, el líquido interno de nuestras células.</p>
<p>El inflamasoma forma parte de nuestro sistema inmunológico innato, y su función es activarse cuando reconoce señales de daño o infección e iniciar procesos inflamatorios como respuesta. Clasificado en distintos tipos según cuál sea la proteína “sensora” que identifica dichas señales, el <a href="https://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0026-17422017000100042#:%7E:text=El%20inflamosoma%20NLRP3%20se%20encuentran,a%20la%20cinasa%20kB19.">NLRP3</a> es el más conocido y estudiado.</p>
<p>Puesto que los inflamasomas juegan un papel fundamental en la iniciación de las respuestas inflamatorias, cualquier alteración en su funcionamiento puede llevar al desarrollo de enfermedades. Y son precisamente esos desequilibrios en la actividad del NLRP3 los que se han asociado a la aparición de dolencias inflamatorias, como las anteriormente citadas, que afectan a nuestra fertilidad. </p>
<p>La activación excesiva de este inflamasoma produce <a href="https://theconversation.com/como-se-suicidan-las-celulas-cancerosas-nuevos-hallazgos-podrian-mejorar-los-tratamientos-199206">piroptosis</a>, un tipo de muerte celular programada en respuesta a patógenos intracelulares que genera una gran cantidad de factores proinflamatorios. </p>
<h2>Cuando el NLRP3 “sobreactúa”</h2>
<p>Diversos estudios han puesto de manifiesto que la “sobreactuación” del inflamasoma NLRP3 juega un papel importante en varios procesos relacionados con la reproducción, como los siguientes: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>El aumento de la expresión de NLRP3 con la edad favorece <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7775749/">el envejecimiento ovárico</a> en las mujeres.</p></li>
<li><p>Su hiperactivación como consecuencia de la desregulación de las hormonas sexuales potencia el desarrollo de la <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36542122/">endometriosis</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>El síndrome de <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7862815/">ovario poliquístico</a> también sobreactiva el NLRP3, lo que acelera la fibrosis ovárica y afecta a la maduración de los folículos ováricos.</p></li>
<li><p>Se ha detectado un incremento significativo en la expresión de NLRP3 en el tejido endometrial de mujeres con <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7862815/">aborto espontáneo de repetición y en el plasma de embarazadas con diabetes gestacional</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Y, por último, la activación anormal de este inflamasoma se vincula a casos de parto prematuro <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33525681/">daño testicular asociado al varicocele</a>, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2020.00008/full">preclampsia</a> –caracterizada por la aparición de hipertensión y signos de daño hepático o renal después de la 20ª semana de embarazo– y disminución de la <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9150048/">motilidad y producción de los espermatozoides</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>En resumen, el inflamasoma desempeña un papel fundamental en el origen de muchos trastornos inflamatorios asociados con un aumento de la infertilidad, tanto en hombres como en mujeres. Entender cómo actúan estos elementos del sistema inmunológico será esencial para buscar nuevas dianas terapéuticas y tratamientos.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylwia Dominika Tyrkalska recibe fondos del programa Juan de la Cierva Incorporación de Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (IJC2019-039619-I). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sergio Candel Camacho recibe fondos del Subprograma "Saavedra Fajardo" para la atracción de talento investigador a universidades y centros de investigación de la Región de Murcia (21118/SF/19), procedentes de la Fundación Séneca-Agencia de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Región de Murcia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victoriano Mulero Méndez recibe fondos de Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Fundación Séneca/Agencia Ciencia y Tecnología de la Región de Murcia, CIBERER/ISCIII, Consejería de Sanidad de la Región de Murcia, y Comisión Europea/H2020. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antonios Georgantzoglou y Carmen Álvarez Santacruz no reciben salarios, ni ejercen labores de consultoría, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del puesto académico citado.</span></em></p>Los mecanismos de defensa que promueven la inflamación afectan la fertilidad humana. Y en este proceso desempeña un papel fundamental el inflamasoma, un complejo proteínico que hasta ahora había pasado inadvertido.Sylwia Dominika Tyrkalska, Investigadora Postdoctoral, Universidad de MurciaAntonios Georgantzoglou, Especialista en Análisis de Imagen, University of CopenhagenCarmen Álvarez Santacruz, Médico Especialista en Otorrinolaringología y Cirujana de Cabeza y Cuello, Investigadora predoctoral, Universidad de MurciaSergio Candel Camacho, Investigador Saavedra Fajardo, Universidad de MurciaVictoriano Mulero Méndez, Catedrático de Biología Celular, Universidad de MurciaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042052023-04-20T13:43:45Z2023-04-20T13:43:45ZRussian ‘spy ship’ in North Sea raises concerns about the vulnerability of key maritime infrastructure<p>A <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QFW3kLDo_M">new documentary</a> produced by a consortium of public broadcasters in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway has revealed what appears to be a profound threat to maritime and undersea energy and data infrastructure in the North Sea and the Baltic region. <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-ghost-ships-prepare-sabotage-of-britain-in-the-north-sea-t2gll75t6">The Shadow War</a> includes footage of a Russian research vessel called Admiral Vladimirsky allegedly collecting data on windfarms, gas pipelines, power and internet cables.</p>
<p>The film, which has been widely <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/19/russia-ukraine-war-spy-ships-europe-energy-infrastructure/">reported in the UK press this week</a>, asserts that Russia is systematically mapping the vulnerabilities of maritime infrastructure in the North Sea. This would enable Russia to learn of any weak spots – for instance, the locations where underwater energy and data cables intersect, making it easier to mount a sabotage attack if the Kremlin deemed it necessary.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1648676082244284418"}"></div></p>
<p>These reports don’t tell maritime security experts anything they don’t already know. We have known for a long time that Russian forces are mapping maritime infrastructures, including wind farms, communication cables and pipelines. Indeed, back in the 1990s and 2000s, when Nato and Russia were cooperating on some security issues, Russian spying activities in Nordic waters never stopped. In 2013, I was taken on a Royal Navy vessel to the North Sea where part of its mission was to look out for Russian spy ships.</p>
<p>But since the occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 these activities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1907129">have intensified</a>. Across European waters, including in Irish and Portuguese waters and the Mediterranean, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">Russian vessels have been spotted</a> conducting intelligence operations.</p>
<h2>Nord Stream sabotage</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-how-an-attack-could-have-been-carried-out-and-why-europe-was-defenceless-191895">sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline</a> in September 2022, in which a core energy pipeline was destroyed in the Baltic Sea, raised significant concerns in the west about the damage a hostile power could do by destroying or disrupting this important energy or information infrastructure.</p>
<p>The culprit behind the Nord Stream sabotage has not yet been identified. But the latest reports show that these worries are justified.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-how-an-attack-could-have-been-carried-out-and-why-europe-was-defenceless-191895">Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: how an attack could have been carried out and why Europe was defenceless</a>
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<hr>
<p>Nato and the EU have rolled out ambitious plans for improving the resilience of maritime infrastructure. Nato and the EU created new <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212887.htm">working groups</a> and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211919.htm?selectedLocale=en">coordination bodies</a> to develop better protection strategies and coordinate between civil and military agencies. In March of this year, the European Commission published an ambitious action plan as part of the updated <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1483">EU maritime security strategy</a>. It foresees studies to identify the most severe vulnerabilities and better surveillance. But do these plans go far enough?</p>
<h2>Why the North Sea is so significant</h2>
<p>The gas and oil supplies of the North Sea are an important resource for the entire European energy market. The increasing focus on the production of green energy makes this strategic importance even greater. More than <a href="https://map.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/">40 windfarms</a> are based in the region, and with ideal conditions for wind energy, installations are continuously and rapidly expanding. The North Sea is hence vital to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and lower CO₂ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the movements of a Russian ship in the Baltic and North Sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The documentary tracks the movements of Russia’s ‘spy ship’ the Admiral Vladimirsky.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Shadow War</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But given what we now suspect about Russian intelligence and possible sabotage activities, the North Sea now needs to be seen as a vulnerable and critical strategic security space. A concerted act of sabotage, damaging underwater electricity cables, for instance, can do significant harm to energy markets. Cutting underwater data cables can limit internet connectivity including across the Atlantic, since important data cable connect for instance Denmark and the US. Repair at sea is costly as it requires specialised ships, which can only operate if the weather conditions allow. After all the North Sea is a harsh environment. </p>
<p>Recent Nato and EU initiatives centre on <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/156255">improving surveillance</a>. They aim at getting better at detecting suspicious activities, such as those reported by the Nordic documentary film. Satellites, radar and patrols – including by unmanned vehicles – CCTV on all infrastructure and contributions by maritime users, such as fishermen who report suspicious activity, can do much to <a href="https://www.safeseas.net/themes/mda/">improve the overall awareness</a>.</p>
<p>This can assist in rapid responses and can also be a deterrent. Information sharing between states and with the industry is important. Nato, the EU, the UK and Norway need to work closely together, as none of them can handle this on their own. Putting different sources of information together to identify suspicious patterns is needed.</p>
<h2>Importance of rapid repair</h2>
<p>What often gets too little attention is the question of repair. If an attack occurs, it is vital to be able to fix any damage as quickly as possible in order to return to normal. Not only that, but if there is a demonstrable repair capacity in the region it reduces the strategic value – and hence the likelihood – of such an attack. </p>
<p>But as of now, these key repair capacities – such as specialised repair vessels and cable depots are <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">severely limited in Europe</a>.</p>
<p>New models of how security policy and the industry can work together to develop strategic repair capacities are required. These might be public-private partnerships that operate repair ships and provide contingency for crisis situations. This would have the dual benefit of enhancing repair capacity and, perhaps, at the same time will give an opportunity to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure by reducing repair times in the North Sea and elsewhere more generally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Bueger receives funding from the Velux Foundation to carry out research on maritime infrastructures. </span></em></p>A new documentary has tracked a Russian vessel apparently collecting data on energy and communications infrastructure in the North Sea and Baltic.Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009452023-03-09T06:18:04Z2023-03-09T06:18:04Z1 triliun dolar yang tersembunyi: semakin melambungnya aliran keuntungan perusahaan multinasional ke surga pajak<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514402/original/file-20230309-16-9ll3ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Berada di Bahama rasanya seperti di surga, apalagi bagi perusahaan multinasional yang menghindari membayar pajak.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/UNFK2n_igbo">Trent Erwin/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sekitar satu dekade yang lalu, negara-negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di dunia sepakat untuk <a href="https://www.oecd.org/g20/summits/los-cabos/">menindak penyalahgunaan <em>tax havens</em> atau surga pajak (wilayah pemberi suaka pajak)</a> oleh perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional. Kesepakatan ini menghasilkan <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">15 poin rencana aksi</a> untuk membendung praktik yang melindungi sebagian besar keuntungan perusahaan dari otoritas pajak.</p>
<p>Namun, berdasarkan estimasi kami, rencana aksi tersebut tak membuahkan hasil. Alih-alih mengekang penggunaan <em>tax havens</em> - seperti Bahama dan Kepulauan Cayman yang tarif pajaknya sangat rendah atau bahkan tidak ada - permasalahan malah semakin pelik.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">Perhitungan kami</a> menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan-perusahaan di dunia mengalihkan hampir US$ 1 triliun (Rp 15.436 triliun) keuntungan mereka ke surga pajak pada 2019. Angka ini naik dari $616 miliar pada 2015, setahun sebelum <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">rencana aksi surga pajak global</a> diterapkan oleh kumpulan negara yang tergabung dalam G20.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">Dalam penelitian terbaru</a>, kami menghitung laba berlebih yang dilaporkan di <em>tax havens</em>, tapi tak dapat dijelaskan oleh aktivitas ekonomi biasa seperti ketenagakerjaan dan pabrik-pabrik di negara tersebut. Temuan kami – detailnya dapat diakses <a href="https://missingprofits.world">di database publik kami</a>, lengkap dengan data dan peta interaktif – menunjukkan adanya pola pergeseran artifisial catatan laba yang mencolok oleh korporasi ke surga pajak. Praktik ini berlangsung sejak dekade 1980-an. </p>
<h2>Penindakan global</h2>
<p>Pada Juni 2012, dunia memulai upaya mengekang praktik penghindaran pembayaran pajak oleh korporasi melalui pemanfaatan <em>tax havens</em>. Ketika itu, dalam <a href="https://www.oecd.org/g20%20/summits/los-cabos/">pertemuan G20 di Los Cabos, Meksiko</a>, para pemimpin dunia bersepakat untuk mengambil tindakan.</p>
<p>Organisasi Kerjasama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (OECD), kelompok 37 negara yang perekonomiannya berorientasi pasar, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">mengembangkan 15 langkah konkret</a> yang dipercaya dapat mengurangi praktik penghindaran pajak korporasi secara signifikan. Ini termasuk membuat seperangkat aturan pajak internasional dan menindak praktik pajak yang berbahaya.</p>
<p>Pada 2015, G20 secara resmi mengadopsi rencana aksi tersebut dan penerapannya pun dimulai di penjuru dunia setahun setelahnya.</p>
<p>Selain itu, setelah bocornya <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/">Panama Papers</a> dan <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers%20/">Paradise Papers</a> – yang menyoroti praktik penghindaran pajak oleh perusahaan – amarah publik menyebabkan <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-%20bisnis">pemerintah di Amerika Serikat (AS)</a> dan Eropa untuk memulai upaya mereka sendiri dengan menurunkan insentif bagi mereka yang mengalihkan labanya ke surga pajak.</p>
<h2>Melonjaknya pengalihan keuntungan</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">Penelitian kami</a> menunjukkan bahwa upaya-upaya ini hanya berdampak kecil. </p>
<p>Kami menemukan bahwa pada 2019, bisnis-bisnis multinasional terbesar di dunia mengalihkan 37% keuntungan – atau $969 miliar – yang mereka peroleh di luar negara asal mereka ke surga pajak. Persentase ini naik dari sekitar 20% pada 2012, ketika para pemimpin G20 bertemu di Los Cabos dan bersepakat untuk mengambil tindakan.</p>
<p>Pada 1970-an, pengalihan keuntungan tersebut hanya bertengger di kisaran 2%. Alasan utama dibalik lonjakan besar tersebut adalah pertumbuhan industri penghindaran pajak pada tahun 1980-an dan kebijakan AS untuk mempermudah pengalihan keuntungan dari negara dengan pajak tinggi ke surga pajak.</p>
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<p>Kami juga memperkirakan bahwa sebagai akibatnya, negara-negara kehilangan pemasukan pajak yang nilainya setara 10% dari total pendapatan perusahaan pada 2019. Pada 1970-an, angka ini kurang dari 0,1%.</p>
<p>Pada 2019, total kerugian pajak pemerintah secara global mencapai $250 miliar. Perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional asal AS menyumbang sekitar setengahnya, diikuti oleh Inggris dan Jerman.</p>
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<h2>Pajak minimum global</h2>
<p>Bagaimana para pembuat kebijakan bisa memperbaiki hal ini?</p>
<p>Sejauh ini, negara-negara di dunia mencoba menyelesaikan persoalan ini dengan memotong atau menghapus pajak perusahaan, meskipun dengan cara yang sangat bertahap. Dalam 40 tahun terakhir, tarif pajak perusahaan global <a href="http://globaltaxation.world/">turun dari 23% menjadi 17%</a>. </p>
<p>Pada saat yang sama, pemerintah negara-negara cenderung mengandalkan <a href="https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PikettySaezZucman2022RKT.pdf">pajak konsumsi</a> yang bersifat regresif (tetap tanpa memperhatikan nominal aset yang dikenai pajak) dan cenderung meningkatkan ketimpangan pendapatan.</p>
<p>Namun, akar dari pengalihan keuntungan adalah insentif yang diberikan oleh negara surga pajak, seperti tarif pajak perusahaan yang rendah atau pengenaannya yang lunak. Menurut perkiraan kami, jika negara-negara dapat menyepakati <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24437292">tarif minimum global untuk pajak perusahaan</a> dari, katakanlah 20%, masalah pengalihan keuntungan akan sebagian besar hilang dan suaka pajak pun akan lenyap.</p>
<p>Mekanisme ini persis yang ditandatangani lebih dari <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/130-countries-and-jurisdictions-join-bold-new-framework-for-international-%20tax-reform.htm">130 negara pada 2021</a>, dengan penerapan pajak minimum 15% yang akan dimulai pada 2024 di Uni Eropa, Inggris, Jepang, Indonesia, dan banyak negara lainnya. Meskipun <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-poland-2577a450b3cb18f325d61e9920e2593d">Pemerintahan Joe Biden di AS telah membantu mempelopori</a> upaya global untuk menerapkan pajak, AS <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/manchin-rejects-global-tax-plan-00046103">sendiri belum mampu</a> meloloskan undang-undangnya lewat kongres.</p>
<p>Riset kami menyarankan perlunya menerapkan jenis reformasi pajak demi mengembalikan keuntungan perusahaan yang semakin besar mengalir ke surga pajak – alih-alih dikenai pajak oleh pemerintah tempat mereka beroperasi dan mendulang uang.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ludvig Wier juga menjabat sebagai Kepala Sekretariat Kementerian Keuangan Denmark, memegang gelar PhD dari Universitas Kopenhagen dan melakukan penelitian untuk UNU-WIDER, yang menyediakan dana untuk penelitian dasar dalam artikel ini. Pandangan yang diungkapkan dalam tulisan ini adalah milik penulis, dan tidak mencerminkan pandangan Kementerian Keuangan Denmark, UNU-WIDER, United Nations University, maupun donor program/proyeknya. Semua data tersedia secara daring di <a href="https://missingprofits.world">https://missingprofits.world</a>.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Zucman menerima dana dari Stone Foundation, Carnegie Foundation, European Research Council, dan European Commission grant TAXUD/2020/DE/326.</span></em></p>Penelitian baru menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan mengalihkan catatan keuntungan mereka ke surga pajak, meskipun telah ada upaya global untuk menindak praktik tersebut.Ludvig Wier, External Lecturer of Economics, University of CopenhagenGabriel Zucman, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000342023-02-23T19:57:31Z2023-02-23T19:57:31Z$1 trillion in the shade – the annual profits multinational corporations shift to tax havens continues to climb and climb<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512027/original/file-20230223-2492-ja174s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C32%2C1033%2C685&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Looks like paradise – especially if you're a multinational corporation in need of a tax haven.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/relaxing-on-hammock-after-a-beach-day-in-the-royalty-free-image/897476216?phrase=cayman%20islands">LeoPatrizi/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512024/original/file-20230223-18-7m6a9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>About a decade ago, the world’s biggest economies <a href="https://www.oecd.org/g20/summits/los-cabos/">agreed to crack down</a> on multinational corporations’ abusive use of tax havens. This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">resulted in a 15-point action plan</a> that aimed to curb practices that shielded a large chunk of corporate profits from tax authorities.</p>
<p>But, according to our estimates, it hasn’t worked. Instead of reining in the use of tax havens – countries such as the Bahamas and Cayman Islands with very low or no effective tax rates – the problem has only gotten worse. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">By our reckoning</a>, corporations shifted nearly US$1 trillion in profits earned outside of their home countries to tax havens in 2019, up from $616 billion in 2015, the year before the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">global tax haven plan was implemented</a> by the group of 20 leading economies, also known as the G-20. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">In a new study</a>, we measured the excessive profits reported in tax havens that cannot be explained by ordinary economic activity such as employees, factories and research in that country. Our findings – which you can explore in more detail along with the data and an interactive map in <a href="https://missingprofits.world">our public database</a> – show a striking pattern of artificial shifting of paper profits to tax havens by corporations, which has been relentless since the 1980s. </p>
<h2>Global crackdown</h2>
<p>The current effort to curb the legal corporate practice of using tax havens to avoid paying taxes began in June 2012, when world leaders at the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/g20/summits/los-cabos/">G-20 meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico</a>, agreed on the need to do something.</p>
<p>The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 37 democracies with market-based economies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/23132612">developed a plan that consisted</a> of 15 tangible actions it believed would significantly limit abusive corporate tax practices. These included creating a single set of international tax rules and cracking down on harmful tax practices.</p>
<p>In 2015, the G-20 adopted the plan officially, and implementation began across the world the following year.</p>
<p>In addition, following leaks like the <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/">Panama Papers</a> and <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/">Paradise Papers</a> – which shed light on dodgy corporate tax practices – public outrage led <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-businesses">governments in the U.S.</a> and Europe to initiate their own efforts to lower the incentive to shift profits to tax havens. </p>
<h2>Profit-shifting soars</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2022/254-6">Our research shows</a> all these efforts appear to have had little impact. </p>
<p>We found that the world’s biggest multinational businesses shifted 37% of the profits – or $969 billion – they earned in other countries (outside the headquarter country) to tax havens in 2019, up from about 20% in 2012 when G-20 leaders met in Los Cabos and agreed to crack down. The figure was less than 2% back in the 1970s. The main reasons for the large increase were the growth of the tax avoidance industry in the 1980s and U.S. policies that made it easier to shift profits from high-tax countries to tax havens.</p>
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<p>We also estimate that the amount of corporate taxes lost as a result reached 10% of total corporate revenue in 2019, up from less than 0.1% in the 1970s. </p>
<p>In 2019, the total government tax loss globally was $250 billion. U.S. multinational corporations alone accounted for about half of that, followed by the U.K. and Germany.</p>
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<h2>Global minimum tax</h2>
<p>How do policymakers fix this?</p>
<p>So far, the world as a whole has been trying to solve this problem by cutting or scrapping corporate taxes, albeit in a very gradual way. In the past 40 years, the global effective corporate tax rate <a href="http://globaltaxation.world/">has fallen from 23% to 17%</a>. At the same time, governments have relied more heavily on <a href="https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PikettySaezZucman2022RKT.pdf">consumption taxes</a>, which are regressive and tend to increase income inequality.</p>
<p>But the root cause of profit-shifting is the incentives involved, such as generous or lenient corporate tax rates in other countries. If countries could agree on a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24437292">global minimum corporate tax rate</a> of, say, 20%, the problem of profit-shifting would, in our estimation, largely disappear, as tax havens would simply cease to exist. </p>
<p>This type of mechanism is exactly what more than <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/130-countries-and-jurisdictions-join-bold-new-framework-for-international-tax-reform.htm">130 countries signed onto in 2021</a>, with implementation of a 15% minimum tax set to begin in 2024 in the EU, U.K., Japan, Indonesia and many other countries. While the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-poland-2577a450b3cb18f325d61e9920e2593d">Biden administration has helped spearhead</a> the global effort to implement the tax, the U.S. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/manchin-rejects-global-tax-plan-00046103">has notably not been able</a> to get legislation through Congress. </p>
<p>Our research suggests implementing this type of tax reform is necessary to reverse the shift of ever-greater amounts of corporate profits going to tax havens – instead of being taxed by the governments where they operate and create value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200034/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ludvig Wier is also Head of Secretariat at the Danish Ministry of Finance, holds a PhD from the University of Copenhagen and does research for UNU-WIDER, which provided funding for the underlying research in this story. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Finance of Denmark, UNU-WIDER, the United Nations University, nor its program/project donors. All data are available online at <a href="https://missingprofits.world">https://missingprofits.world</a>.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Zucman receives funding from the Stone Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the European Research Council, and the European Commission grant TAXUD/2020/DE/326.</span></em></p>New research shows that companies are shifting record amounts of their profits to tax havens, despite a global effort to crack down on the practice.Ludvig Wier, External Lecturer of Economics, University of CopenhagenGabriel Zucman, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1952192023-01-26T13:32:06Z2023-01-26T13:32:06ZIt’ll take 150 years to map Africa’s biodiversity at the current rate. We can’t protect what we don’t know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504614/original/file-20230116-12-2bq5kf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Niassa Special Reserve in Northern Mozambique's is just one of the continent's under-mapped biodiversity areas. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Harith Omar Morgadinho Farooq</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The African continent is bursting with biodiversity. In <a href="https://www.cbd.int/gbo/gbo4/outlook-africa-en.pdf">a 2016 report</a>, the United Nations Environment Programme wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Africa’s biomes extend from mangroves to deserts, from Mediterranean to tropical forests, from temperate to sub-tropical and montane grasslands and savannas, and even to ice-capped mountains.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>About a quarter of the world’s species of plants and animals are found on the continent. </p>
<p>But biodiversity isn’t just beautiful. We need it to survive. Different species and biomes provide ecosystem services to humans: food, clothing, potable water and the very air we breathe. The disappearance of a seemingly unimportant animal, like a certain species of bee, may result in the extinction of certain plant species. That, in turn, affects humans and other species.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cop15-biodiversity-summit-in-montreal-canada-failed-to-meet-its-2020-conservation-targets-will-2030-be-any-better-195347">Experts have estimated</a> that each country, globally, must protect the biodiversity of 30% of its territory by 2030 to at least mitigate the effects of ongoing environmental damage.</p>
<p>But we found in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/sysbio/article/70/3/623/6030962">a recent study</a> that huge swathes of Africa remain unstudied and their species undocumented. Why? Because scientists keep returning to areas whose biodiversity has already been mapped, rather than visiting new, unexplored areas. </p>
<p>We show that at the current rate of discovery it may take more than 150 years to visit every 100km x 100km area in Africa even once. And, our analysis suggests, one visit won’t be enough. It may take up to 27 field expeditions to document just 50% of an area’s existing species.</p>
<p>If scientists don’t start venturing outside well-mapped areas, thousands of new species will remain undocumented. Adequate data is crucial to identifying and delineating species boundaries, understanding spatial biodiversity patterns and effectively promoting species conservation. We cannot protect what we don’t know. </p>
<h2>Assessing the data</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505539/original/file-20230120-14-j71362.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All of the uncoloured areas on these maps of Africa show parts of the continent where the study didn’t find any scientific expeditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our estimates are based only on birds, mammals and amphibians — three well-studied groups. The knowledge bias and spatial patterns we report are likely to be considerably worse for other already under-described groups such as <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1110319108">plants</a>, <a href="https://apsjournals.apsnet.org/doi/10.1094/PHYTO.1997.87.9.888">fungi</a> and <a href="http://ecologylabs.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Estimate-of-insect-species.pdf">insects</a>. </p>
<p>We wanted to use data to produce visuals of the continent’s unstudied or under-studied areas. Usually when scientists go to the field, they collect specimens which end up in museums and then show up on the museums’ databases. These databases have been aggregated into one by the <a href="https://www.gbif.org/">Global Biodiversity Information Facility</a>, so all the data sets can be accessed at once.</p>
<p>This was the source of our data and meant we were counting scientific expeditions, a better representation of species mapping than, for instance, researchers’ anecdotes or a random sample of journal articles.</p>
<p>To estimate the number of expeditions in each 100km x 100km grid cell in Africa, a standard method for conducting analyses of this sort, we counted the number of years which had at least one collection involving either amphibians, mammals or birds. So, a value of five, for instance, shows that there were collections made by scientists in five different years. </p>
<p>Then we applied statistical tools that use the current rate to model the future trend <em>if</em> the behaviour (the rate of expeditions) stays the same. </p>
<p>Our results emphasise that current practice is insufficient to adequately classify and map African biodiversity. This can result in misleading and self-reinforcing conservation priorities: areas are considered to be of high conservation value largely because they are better surveyed rather than because they are actually more diverse. </p>
<h2>Pushing for change</h2>
<p>There are ways to improve this situation. </p>
<p>Agencies, companies and philanthropists that fund research should actively promote projects that aim to sample areas where baseline biodiversity data is lacking.</p>
<p>Researchers should, meanwhile, increase the taxonomic and methodological scope of their collection efforts. Given the logistical and legislative challenges of carrying out fieldwork across most of Africa, we urge scientists to collaborate with specialists in different institutions and with varied taxonomic expertise to responsibly sample the maximum possible number of taxa – in full or as tissue samples, especially for endangered or large species.</p>
<p>There’s also a need for scientists to engage with each other beyond borders. Biological sampling in Africa has, to <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/110154">a large extent</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.05926">been carried out</a> by European and North American institutions. Researchers from institutions in those regions need to collaborate with local universities, rather than just using locals as field assistants.</p>
<p>At a government level, the process for sampling permits should be made transparent and available online for every country in the continent, to encourage and streamline biodiversity research.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Huge swathes of Africa remain unstudied and their species undocumented.Harith Omar Morgadinho Farooq, Post-doc, University of CopenhagenSøren Faurby, Senior Lecturer in Zoology, University of GothenburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1952382022-12-06T17:24:46Z2022-12-06T17:24:46ZHow the pandemic affected our approach to reading and interpretation of books<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498226/original/file-20221130-18-6532fu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C0%2C3393%2C1707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/bookcrossing-concept-happy-people-exchanging-borrowing-2031737963">GoodStudio/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the pandemic, reading took on new meaning. People turned to books for comfort. Some read to confront difficult issues, especially following the murder of George Floyd in 2020. Others used reading as a way to care for their children in locked-down houses. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/mar/25/book-sales-surge-self-isolating-readers-bucket-list-novels">Sales figures and lending data</a> showed a huge spike in people buying and borrowing books. We wanted to follow the stories of real readers and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/reading-novels-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-9780192857682?q=reading%20novels%20during%20the%20pandemic&lang=en&cc=dk">our new book</a> uses a rare combination of literary analysis and qualitative interviewing to capture these dynamics of reception. </p>
<p>While many commentators at the beginning of the pandemic <a href="https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/03/9581961/long-books-to-read-in-quarantine">endorsed reading</a> as a straightforward way to relax, our readers showed that the practice morphed and took on new forms and meanings. </p>
<p>Based on hundreds of survey responses and hours of reader interviews from Denmark and the UK, the study makes the interpretation of literature something dynamic and ongoing. And it suggests that readers themselves are agents of meaning, even in the case of novels that seem the most stable in our culture.</p>
<p>Reading during the pandemic showed how books and their meanings change. Novels that we think of as settled in their significance acquire new meaning as they are read under unfolding conditions, exposed to the vagaries of history. </p>
<p>In our research we show how Albert Camus’s The Plague became an unlikely hit in 2020, how the affordances of Sally Rooney’s romantic fiction seemed suddenly to apply to the lovers unable to meet, and how long novels that had intimidated pre-pandemic readers became lifelines in their heft.</p>
<h2>Tricky reading</h2>
<p>For many people, reading became more difficult during this time.</p>
<p>Far from giving everyone uninterrupted time to attend to long novels by authors like Tolstoy, lockdown exacerbated the separations and challenges of everyday life. </p>
<p>Take Jane Eyre, a novel that many readers picked up during lockdown because it was on their shelves. Suddenly, this classic seemed to be a novel about a woman locked in small rooms and living through a cholera epidemic. Many also took it up under conditions that overlapped directly with the book’s scenes of homeschooling. </p>
<p>One respondent called Phoebe, for instance, deliberately avoided rereading Jane Eyre for these reasons. Charlotte Brontë’s classic novel of loneliness and love was, in 2020, “too creepy”. The story of Jane being locked up made her feel unsafe while she lived alone through lockdown in the confines of her own room. </p>
<p>Another interviewee, Alexandra, was troubled by the idea of reading Hilary Mantel’s bestseller The Mirror and the Light, explaining: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I knew that I would be saying goodbye to Sir Thomas Cromwell […] I looked at it and I thought, what if I die before I get to the end of this? It will be the most unsatisfactory experience. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Rather than sizing up the third part of Mantel’s intimate portrayal of the life of Thomas Cromwell as offering the ideal opportunity for narrative immersion, Alexandra viewed the very thickness of the book as problematic. Her intense fear of death in the pandemic and expectation of Cromwell’s literary demise converge on the length of narrative, which stretches into a future that had become harder to face.</p>
<h2>Slipperiness of time</h2>
<p>For the reader caught up in a global pandemic, a novel like The Plague, Albert Camus’s famous story of a town suffering a deadly virus, reads differently than it usually would for, say, the school student of French literature. One interviewed reader, for instance, discussed the novel’s temporal slipperiness. </p>
<p>Normally, of course, the very lack of measurable time would suggest the novel as an allegory – untied to a particular time, a warning of dark political forces turning up and spreading at any moment. But in 2020, when time <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-philosophical-idea-that-can-help-us-understand-why-time-is-moving-slowly-during-the-pandemic-151250">felt like it was moving oddly</a> The Plague’s confused sense of time felt realistic, as if it were mimicking our lived experience of a pandemic. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A book in a tropical setting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498244/original/file-20221130-26-7rehn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Plague’s allegorical story felt mor real in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/setif-algeria-august-24-2022-close-2194820509">Hamdi Bendali/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Yet, it would be a mistake to assume all readers suddenly ditched allegory for realism or real-life correspondence. As Kirsten, a Danish woman in her 30s, explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I ended up buying The Plague because I was more interested in the metaphorical portrait of the occupation (of France by the Nazis) than in what epidemics do to a society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>By following real readers, our study provides a snapshot of a phenomenal moment in modern history and shows the movement of readers between new purchases and books long kept in their collections. By exploring these varied experiences, we investigated the larger question of how the consumption of novels depends on and shapes people’s experience of non-work time, providing a specific lens through which to examine the experience of reading more generally. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, it demonstrates the dynamic process of reading and the ways in which books change depending on where and when they are read and by whom.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:ben.davies@port.ac.uk">ben.davies@port.ac.uk</a> received funding for this project from The Carlsberg Foundation. In summer 2022, he received new funding from the Council for the Defence of British Universities. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:tinalup@hum.ku.dk">tinalup@hum.ku.dk</a> receives funding from the Carlsberg Foundation </span></em></p>Classic books like Jane Eyre took on new meanings while the lengths of others made us aware of our mortality.Ben Davies, Senior lecturer in Literature and Theory, University of PortsmouthChristina Lupton, Professor of English, Germanic, and Romance languages., University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954772022-11-30T09:11:42Z2022-11-30T09:11:42ZEnding HIV as a public health threat – 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497976/original/file-20221129-24-kfmdkj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2014 the United Nations set an <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/pressreleaseandstatementarchive/2014/november/20141118_PR_WAD2014report">ambitious goal</a>: to end the AIDS pandemic by the year 2030. </p>
<p>There have been significant advances in HIV treatment and prevention. Access to antiretroviral therapy has saved millions of lives. The UN estimates that since 2010 there’s been a <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet">52%</a> decrease in AIDS-related deaths. New infections have also fallen drastically.</p>
<p>But we’re far from out of the woods. A recent <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/documents/2022/in-danger-global-aids-update">report</a> warns that this progress is in danger if current conditions of inequality prevail. Experts across the board have identified inequality as a major challenge to efforts to end AIDS. </p>
<p>Over the years public health experts have written numerous articles for The Conversation Africa about the drivers of this pandemic. We’ve selected three here which highlight the complexity of the problem. </p>
<h2>Addressing inequalities</h2>
<p>UNAIDS executive director Winnie Byanyima <a href="https://theconversation.com/head-of-unaids-unpacks-the-knock-on-effects-of-covid-19-and-what-needs-to-be-done-168909">argues</a> that HIV, like COVID, feeds off inequalities. In an interview with Imraan Valodia, head of the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies at South Africa’s University of the Witwatersrand, Byanyima highlights how women who don’t have access to basic rights such as health and education pay the price in poverty, ill health and sometimes even death. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/head-of-unaids-unpacks-the-knock-on-effects-of-covid-19-and-what-needs-to-be-done-168909">Head of UNAIDS unpacks the knock-on effects of COVID-19. And what needs to be done</a>
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<h2>The vulnerability of women and girls</h2>
<p>Adolescent girls and young women are particularly vulnerable to HIV infection. It’s estimated that every week 4,900 women between 15 and 24 years old acquire HIV. Women in this age group are twice as likely as their male counterparts to be living with HIV. Unequal gender dynamics often make it difficult for young women to negotiate whether, when, or how they want to have sex. But there is a way for adolescent girls and young women to protect themselves without having to negotiate condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, is a pill containing antiretroviral drugs that can help prevent HIV. Morten Skovdal, associate professor of health psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-ways-to-improve-hiv-prevention-pill-uptake-among-young-women-in-zimbabwe-184494">asked</a> Zimbabwean healthcare workers for pointers on how to improve access to PrEP for young women.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/six-ways-to-improve-hiv-prevention-pill-uptake-among-young-women-in-zimbabwe-184494">Six ways to improve HIV prevention pill uptake among young women in Zimbabwe</a>
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<h2>Barriers to treatment</h2>
<p>The risk of HIV infection and the uptake of treatment or prevention measures are influenced by several factors. These include biology, people’s behaviour and their social contexts. Behavioural scientist Hilton Humphries <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-inequality-drives-hiv-in-adolescent-girls-and-young-women-172624">explains</a> how individuals make decisions about whether to use PrEP, in the context of structural inequalities that sustain risk – things that individuals can’t always control.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-inequality-drives-hiv-in-adolescent-girls-and-young-women-172624">How inequality drives HIV in adolescent girls and young women</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Experts across the board have identified inequality as a major challenge to efforts to end AIDS.Ina Skosana, Health + Medicine Editor (Africa edition)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.