tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-georgia-1547/articlesThe University of Georgia2023-12-01T16:10:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187422023-12-01T16:10:14Z2023-12-01T16:10:14ZSantos, now booted from the House, got elected as a master of duplicity – here’s how it worked<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562816/original/file-20231130-15-kdugvt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C6508%2C4319&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. George Santos in the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 7, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-george-santos-r-n-y-leaves-a-meeting-of-the-house-news-photo/1769554374?adppopup=true">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. Rep. George Santos, a Republican from New York, was expelled on Dec. 1, 2023, from Congress for doing what most people think all <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-politicians-must-lie-from-time-to-time-so-why-is-there-so-much-outrage-about-george-santos-a-political-philosopher-explains-197877">politicians</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">do all the time</a>: lying.</p>
<p>Santos lied about his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/opinion/george-santos-jewish-heritage.html">religion</a>, <a href="https://www.advocate.com/politics/2022/12/22/george-santos-hid-marriage-woman-says-hell-explain-alleged-lies">marital status</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/politics/george-santos-admits-embellishing-resume/index.html">business background</a>, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/george-santos-facebook-comment-hitler-jews-black-people">grandparents</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/nyregion/george-santos-interview.html">college</a>, <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/guide-george-santos-lies.html#:%7E:text=He%20lied%20about%20where%20he%20went%20to%20high%20school%20%E2%80%A6&text=But%20a%20spokesperson%20for%20the,a%20high%2Dschool%20equivalency%20diploma.">high school</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/11/santos-lies-volleyball/#:%7E:text=George%20Santos%20lied%20about%20being,star%2C'%20county%20GOP%20chair%20says&text=George%20Santos%20allegedly%20told%20a,he%20claimed%20to%20have%20played.">sports-playing</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/congressman-george-santos-charged-fraud-money-laundering-theft-public-funds-and-false">income</a> and <a href="https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/documents/Committee%20Report_52.pdf">campaign donation expenditures</a>.</p>
<p>Santos’ fellow members of Congress – a professional class <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/evaluations-of-members-of-congress-and-the-biggest-problem-with-elected-officials-today">stereotypically</a> considered by the public to be littered with serial liars – apparently consider Santos peerless and are kicking him out of their midst <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/01/us/politics/santos-expulsion-vote.html">on a 311-114 vote, with two members voting present</a>. </p>
<p>How could a politician engage in such large-scale deception and get elected? What could stop it from happening again, as politicians seem to be growing more <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-long-running-no-apology-tour-hits-the-metoo-era/2019/04/04/caf47bdc-56e7-11e9-9136-f8e636f1f6df_story.html">unapologetically</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12809">deceptive</a> while evading voters’ scrutiny? </p>
<p>Santos’ success demonstrates a mastery of something more than just pathological lying. He managed to campaign in a district close to the media microscope of New York City, in one of the richest <a href="https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-3-ny">districts</a> in the state, and get elected and stay in office for a year, despite making a mockery of any <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/guide-george-santos-lies.html">semblance of honesty</a>. </p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of political deception</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751.2023.2244030">Experiments I conducted</a> have revealed how the trustworthiness of politicians is judged almost entirely from perceptions of their demeanor, not the words they utter.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t8zU8yX0TcA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians lie, as this compilation shows.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Misleading with a smile</h2>
<p>I have found that voters are drawn in by politicians’ demeanor cues, which are forms of body language and nonverbal communication that signal honesty or dishonesty and yet have no relationship to actual honesty. For example, looking nervous and fidgety or appearing confident and composed are demeanor cues, which give impressions of a politician’s sincerity and believability. Someone’s demeanor cues might signal that they are trustworthy when they’re actually lying, or could signal lying in someone who is actually telling the truth.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.2011.01407.x">most authoritative index</a> of demeanor cues that affect people’s perceptions of honesty and deception was developed <a href="https://www.uab.edu/cas/communication/people/faculty/timothy-r-levine">by Tim Levine</a>, a professor of communication at the University of Alabama, Birmingham. Demeanor cues that convey sincerity and honesty include appearing confident and composed; having a pleasant, friendly, engaged and involved interaction style; and giving plausible explanations.</p>
<p>The insincere/dishonest demeanor cues include avoiding eye contact, appearing hesitant and slow in providing answers, vocal uncertainty in tone of voice, excessive fidgeting with hands or foot movements, and appearing tense, nervous or anxious. </p>
<p>Empirical research has long revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2007.00362.x">voters are overwhelmingly influenced by politicians’ nonverbal communication</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.3.523">In one experiment</a>, participants were shown 10-second clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates. The participants were asked to predict who won the election. </p>
<p>Participants who saw muted 10-second clips – making their judgments solely on nonverbal cues – were able to predict which candidate would go on to win. But those who watched the video with the sound were no better at picking the winner than if they picked randomly without ever watching or listening to anything. Voters make their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1110589">judgments of a politician’s competence</a>, it turns out, based on a 1-second glance at the politician’s face. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-1750(86)90190-9">study</a> also found that politicians’ facial expressions have the power to move us, literally: People watching clips of Ronald Reagan looking friendly adjusted their facial muscles accordingly and mimicked his smile, and people watching clips of Reagan looking angry tended to furrow their brow, too.</p>
<h2>How Santos does it</h2>
<p>Santos <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYmCx2eaTRE">speaks with certitude</a>. He has a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/hcr/article/37/3/377/4107525">charming, friendly and interactive manner – all</a> sincere demeanor cues. He makes intense <a href="https://youtu.be/wYmCx2eaTRE?si=uKIPFcqkJcbWNtcy">eye contact</a> without fidgeting. He <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/style/george-santos-style.html">dresses well and is pleasant</a> looking. </p>
<p>He was able to make up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html">lies</a> out of whole cloth and have them believed – a feat rarely accomplished by liars. He exudes <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/george-santos-baby.html">confidence</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1712908983403462691"}"></div></p>
<p>Santos dresses with sartorial elegance. He wears chic <a href="https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2023-04-21-santos/4fbfc343e7ce7b04bd6d4d593ba08e0a5781cc29/_assets/stantos_desktop.jpg">eyeglasses</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU8evnkPLcg">sunglasses</a>, accessorized with bright but not tacky jewelry. All this is complemented by one of his signature <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/12/15/multimedia/00ny-santos3-1-d66d/00ny-santos3-1-d66d-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp">fleeces</a> or <a href="https://apnews.com/c89bf18bcd7e4133ad2794bfe863460b">sweaters</a>, typically worn over a collared dress shirt and under a smart <a href="https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/03c/0df/28f256688a0f26500d713b0930eb4c6e52-GettyImages-1734001031.rhorizontal.w700.jpg">jacket</a>. Santos even bought his campaign staff Brooks Brothers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html">shirts</a> to wear. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751.2023.2244030">In my experiments</a>, which have shown that voters base their judgment of politicians’ trustworthiness almost entirely from perceptions of demeanor, I found that Republicans are especially susceptible to demeanor cues. Republican voters will disbelieve their own honest politician if they perceive that the politician’s demeanor is insincere. But they will believe their own politician if they perceive sincerity. </p>
<p>Santos’ believable demeanor follows in the lineage of other con artists who could deceive absurdly yet adroitly. Disgraced financier <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/jan/04/netflix-bernie-madoff-monster-of-wall-street">Bernie Madoff</a> dressed well, looked dignified, acted <a href="https://youtu.be/Or3xOfemMEE?si=yuA0YqLyuuJauP3A">friendly and cordial</a>, and his resting face was a smiling expression. The <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/81035279">Fyre Festival</a> fraudster Billy McFarland also had a resting face that was a smiling, aw-shucks <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/18/how-fyre-festivals-organizer-scammed-investors-out-of-26-million.html">expression</a>, and acted harmless and friendly.</p>
<p>And Elizabeth <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/business/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-interview.html">Holmes</a> of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fall/index.html">Theranos</a> – who became the youngest female billionaire in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/news/collection/theranos-coverage-ea13b200">history</a> – faked a deep voice, walked upright with perfect posture, smiled and conveyed unrelenting confident poise, and maintained an unblinking gaze. All this enabled her to tell lies to some of the richest, most accomplished, intelligent titans of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-whistleblower-shook-the-companyand-his-family-1479335963">industry</a>. </p>
<p>Madoff, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/billy-mcfarland-organizer-of-disastrous-fyre-festival-pleads-guilty-to-misleading-investors.html">McFarland</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63685131">Holmes</a> could look people in the eye and steal their money – swindling largely through the same sorts of demeanor cues that Santos exhibits. </p>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/T1NkZ41zjUg?si=LDqLiJWSIN2lwqpS">McFarland</a>, <a href="https://youtu.be/rGfaJZAdfNE?si=DYur3J8AJtqwvXB5">Holmes</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/wYmCx2eaTRE?si=_Y9BJkfIsPfbAiqZ">Santos</a> have the ability to smile with their upper teeth showing while they are answering tough questions in interviews, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2111127">research shows</a> exudes trustworthiness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown haired man with glasses, wearing a white shirt and blue vest, fistbumps another man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican candidate George Santos, left, fist-bumps campaign volunteer John Maccarone while campaigning on Nov. 5, 2022, in Glen Cove, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022NewYorkHouse/58045c130be64798a4eed98ed7a1e93c/photo?Query=George%20Santos%20campaigning&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=103&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fool me once …</h2>
<p>Just because someone speaks confidently, dresses well and acts friendly does not mean the person is honest. Pay attention to what people say – the content of their verbal messaging. </p>
<p>Don’t fall prey to <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/george-santos-snaps-at-oan-host-caitlin-sinclair/">body language or seemingly sincere behavioral impressions</a>, which actually have no correlation to actual truthfulness. As my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">research</a> has shown, the appearance of sincerity is misleading. It is a <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/1076-8971.13.1.1">myth</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0261927x14535916">that eye contact means someone is telling you the truth</a> and that a roving gaze or elevated blinking means they are lying. </p>
<p>Some people just <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0261927X14528804">look honest</a> but they are pulling the proverbial wool over your eyes. Some people <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0033-2909.134.4.477">look sketchy</a> and appear unbelievable, but what they say is truthful.</p>
<p>Santos’ disgrace is a teachable moment for citizens. As the proverb goes: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar of political deception says there is something especially deceitful about George Santos, and his success getting elected demonstrates mastery of something more than just pathological lying.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor, Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164822023-11-09T16:10:17Z2023-11-09T16:10:17ZState of Georgia using extreme legal measures to quell ‘Cop City’ dissenters<iframe height="200px" width="100%" frameborder="no" scrolling="no" seamless="" src="https://player.simplecast.com/944f8901-89d9-4868-81fd-5d165b61996d?dark=true"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this week, nearly five dozen people <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/06/atlanta-cop-city-police-protesters-charged-rico-law">appeared in a courtroom near Atlanta</a> to answer criminal racketeering and domestic terrorism charges brought against them by the state. The charges are related to what’s commonly known as “Cop City,” a $90-million paramilitary police and firefighter training facility planned for 85 acres of forest near Atlanta.</p>
<p>The Atlanta Police Association saw a need for such a facility at the start of the 2020 Black Lives Matter uprisings and started to fund raise. Many corporations have contributed to the plans for a world-class police training facility.</p>
<p>Georgia prosecutors are calling the demonstrators “militant anarchists.” But many of those charged say they were simply attending a rally or a concert in support of the <a href="https://www.stopcopcitysolidarity.org/">Stop Cop City movement</a>. </p>
<p>The protesters, their lawyers and their supporters, who rallied outside the court this week, say the government is using heavy-handed tactics to silence the movement. The <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/rico-racketeer-influenced-and-corrupt-organizations-act-statute">RICO charges</a> brought against the demonstrators essentially accuse them of being part of organized crime and carry a potential sentence of five to 20 years in prison. </p>
<p>Legal experts worry about the type of precedent this might set for our right to protest. It’s a case a lot of people are following nationally and internationally, for that reason.</p>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://dont-call-me-resilient.simplecast.com/episodes/state-of-georgia-using-extreme-legal-measures-to-quell-cop-city-dissenters"><em>Don’t Call Me Resilient</em> episode,</a> we speak with one of the leaders of the Stop Cop City movement. Kamau Franklin is a long-time community organizer and the founder of <a href="https://communitymovementbuilders.org/">Community Movement Builders</a>. He is also a lawyer — and was an attorney for 10 years in New York with his own practice in criminal, civil rights and transactional law. He now lives in Atlanta. </p>
<p>Also joining us is Zohra Ahmed, assistant professor of law at the University of Georgia. A former public defender in New York, she, too, has been watching this case closely. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In 2020 when people were talking about…defunding the police …the state…instead of doing any of that, decided to double down here in Atlanta and bring forth the idea…of a Cop City, a large scale militarized police base meant to learn tactics and strategies on urban warfare, crowd control, civil disbursement which was meant to move against community organizers and activists. The idea of Cop City is that it’s not only going to train the police in Atlanta, but it’s going to train police across the state and across the country and have international connections…so that different policing agencies are learning similar tactics and strategies and exchanging ideas on how to suppress.
- Kamau Franklin</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Read more in The Conversation</h2>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/arrests-of-3-members-of-an-atlanta-charitys-board-in-a-swat-team-raid-is-highly-unusual-and-could-be-unconstitutional-206984">Arrests of 3 members of an Atlanta charity's board in a SWAT-team raid is highly unusual and could be unconstitutional</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/students-demand-removal-of-mild-racist-from-georgia-landscape-140105">Students demand removal of 'mild racist' from Georgia landscape</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fortress-usa-how-9-11-produced-a-military-industrial-juggernaut-166102">'Fortress USA': How 9/11 produced a military industrial juggernaut</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Resources</h2>
<p><a href="https://btlbooks.com/book/disarm-defund-dismantle"><em>Disarm, Defund, Dismantle: Police Abolition in Canada</em></a>, edited by Shiri Pasternak, Kevin Walby and Abby Stadnyk</p>
<p><a href="https://www.akpress.org/practicing-new-worlds.html"><em>Practicing New Worlds: Abolition and Emergent Strategies</em></a>, by Andrea J. Ritchie</p>
<p><a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/the-fight-against-cop-city/">"The Fight Against Cop City”</a> (<em>Dissent Magazine</em>)</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/society/cop-city-indictment-atlanta/">“How Georgia Indicted a Movement”</a> (<em>The Nation</em> by Zohra Ahmed and Elizabeth Taxel)</p>
<p><a href="https://afsc.org/companies-and-foundations-behind-cop-city">The Companies and Foundations behind Cop City</a> (American Friends Service Committee)</p>
<p><a href="https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/article-711682">“Georgia State police return home after two-week Israeli training”</a> <em>(The Jerusalem Post)</em> </p>
<h2>Listen and follow</h2>
<p>You can listen to or follow <em>Don’t Call Me Resilient</em> on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dont-call-me-resilient/id1549798876">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/37tK4zmjWvq2Sh6jLIpzp7">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_mJBLBznANz6ID9rBCUk7gv_ZRC4Og9-">YouTube</a> or wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. </p>
<p><a href="mailto:DCMR@theconversation.com">We’d love to hear from you</a>, including any ideas for future episodes. Join The Conversation on <a href="https://twitter.com/ConversationCA">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/dontcallmeresilientpodcast/">Instagram</a> and <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@theconversation">TikTok</a> and use #DontCallMeResilient.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Legal experts worry the “doubling down” on demonstrators who are opposed to the planned giant police training facility could undermine the right to protest.Vinita Srivastava, Host + Producer, Don't Call Me ResilientAteqah Khaki, Associate Producer, Don't Call Me ResilientLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097602023-07-21T12:27:14Z2023-07-21T12:27:14Z6 ways AI can make political campaigns more deceptive than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538357/original/file-20230719-19-faci2s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C26%2C5982%2C3781&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are real fears that AI will make politics more deceptive than it already is.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/engineer-designing-ai-technology-with-reflection-on-royalty-free-image/1455352989?phrase=artificial+intelligence+&adppopup=true">Westend61/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political campaign ads and donor solicitations have long been deceptive. In 2004, for example, U.S. presidential candidate John Kerry, a Democrat, aired an ad stating that Republican opponent George W. Bush “says sending jobs overseas <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">‘makes sense’</a> for America.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/outsourcing-jobs-the-president-said-that/">Bush never said</a> such a thing. </p>
<p>The next day Bush responded by releasing an ad saying Kerry “supported higher taxes <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/bush-ad-is-troubling-indeed/">over 350 times</a>.” This too was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">false claim</a>. </p>
<p>These days, the <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/11/08/political-ads-2020-presidential-election-collected-personal-information-spread-misleading-information/">internet has gone wild with deceptive</a> political ads. Ads often pose as polls and have misleading clickbait headlines.</p>
<p>Campaign fundraising solicitations are also rife with deception. An analysis of 317,366 political emails sent during the 2020 election in the U.S. found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517221145371">deception was the norm</a>. For example, a campaign manipulates recipients into opening the emails by lying about the sender’s identity and using subject lines that trick the recipient into thinking the sender is replying to the donor, or claims the email is “NOT asking for money” but then asks for money. Both <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/26/us/politics/recurring-donations-seniors.html">Republicans and Democrats do it</a>.</p>
<p>Campaigns are now rapidly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/technology/ai-elections-disinformation-guardrails.html">embracing artificial intelligence</a> for composing and producing ads and donor solicitations. The results are impressive: Democratic campaigns found that donor <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/us/politics/artificial-intelligence-2024-campaigns.html">letters written by AI were more effective</a> than letters written by humans at writing personalized text that persuades recipients to click and send donations. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LKQiTpiPN7I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC featured an AI-generated imitation of Donald Trump’s voice in this ad.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI has benefits for democracy</a>, such as helping staffers organize their emails from constituents or helping government officials summarize testimony.</p>
<p>But there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">fears that AI will make politics more deceptive</a> than ever.</p>
<p>Here are six things to look out for. I base this list on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my own experiments</a> testing the effects of political deception. I hope that voters can be equipped with what to expect and what to watch out for, and learn to be more skeptical, as the U.S. heads into the next presidential campaign. </p>
<h2>Bogus custom campaign promises</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> on the 2020 presidential election revealed that the choice voters made between Biden and Trump was driven by their perceptions of which candidate “proposes realistic solutions to problems” and “says out loud what I am thinking,” based on 75 items in a survey. These are two of the most important qualities for a candidate to have to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">project a presidential</a> image and win. </p>
<p>AI chatbots, such as <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/13/chatgpt-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-open-ai-powered-chatbot/">ChatGPT</a> by OpenAI, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/23/23609942/microsoft-bing-sydney-chatbot-history-ai">Bing Chat</a> by Microsoft, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/googles-ai-chatbot-bard-expands-europe-brazil-take-chatgpt-2023-07-13/">Bard</a> by Google, could be used by politicians to generate customized campaign promises deceptively microtargeting voters and donors. </p>
<p>Currently, when people scroll through news feeds, the articles are logged in their computer history, which are <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1717563">tracked by sites such as Facebook</a>. The user is tagged as liberal or conservative, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.00397">tagged as holding certain interests</a>. Political campaigns can place an ad spot in real time on the person’s feed with a customized title. </p>
<p>Campaigns can use AI to develop a repository of articles written in different styles making different campaign promises. Campaigns could then embed an AI algorithm in the process – courtesy of automated commands already plugged in by the campaign – to generate bogus tailored campaign promises at the end of the ad posing as a news article or donor solicitation. </p>
<p>ChatGPT, for instance, could hypothetically be prompted to add material based on text from the last articles that the voter was reading online. The voter then scrolls down and reads the candidate promising exactly what the voter wants to see, word for word, in a tailored tone. My experiments have shown that if a presidential candidate can align the tone of word choices with a voter’s preferences, the politician will seem <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">more presidential and credible</a>. </p>
<h2>Exploiting the tendency to believe one another</h2>
<p>Humans tend to automatically believe what they are told. They have what scholars call a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X14535916">truth-default</a>.” They even fall prey to seemingly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101380">implausible</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/hcr/hqz001">lies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12809">my experiments</a> I found that people who are exposed to a presidential candidate’s deceptive messaging believe the untrue statements. Given that text produced by ChatGPT can shift people’s <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3544548.3581196">attitudes and opinions</a>, it would be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2020.1833357">relatively easy for AI to exploit</a> voters’ truth-default when bots stretch the limits of credulity with even more implausible assertions than humans would conjure.</p>
<h2>More lies, less accountability</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/technology/ai-chatbots-chatgpt-bing-bard-llm.html">Chatbots</a> such as ChatGPT are prone to make up stuff that is <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/llm-hallucinations-ec831dcd7786">factually inaccurate</a> or totally nonsensical. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">AI can produce deceptive information</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-under-investigation-by-ftc-21e4b3ef">delivering false statements</a> and misleading ads. While the most unscrupulous human campaign operative may still have a smidgen of accountability, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">AI has none</a>. And OpenAI acknowledges flaws with ChatGPT that lead it to provide biased information, disinformation and outright <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/technology/chatgpt-investigation-ftc-openai.html">false information</a>. </p>
<p>If campaigns <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">disseminate AI messaging without any human filter</a> or moral compass, lies could get worse and more out of control. </p>
<h2>Coaxing voters to cheat on their candidate</h2>
<p>A New York Times columnist had a lengthy chat with Microsoft’s Bing chatbot. Eventually, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-transcript.html">bot tried to get him to leave his wife</a>. “Sydney” told the reporter repeatedly “I’m in love with you,” and “You’re married, but you don’t love your spouse … you love me. … Actually you want to be with me.” </p>
<p>Imagine millions of these sorts of encounters, but with a bot trying to ply voters to leave their candidate for another.</p>
<p>AI <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">chatbots can exhibit partisan bias</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.17548">For example</a>, they currently tend to skew far more left politically – holding liberal biases, expressing 99% support for Biden – with far less diversity of opinions than the general population. </p>
<p>In 2024, Republicans and Democrats will have the opportunity to fine-tune models that inject political bias and even chat with voters to sway them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in dark suits debating each other from different lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2004, a campaign ad for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, left, lied about his opponent, Republican George W. Bush, right. Bush’s campaign lied about Kerry, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TOPIXBUSHKERRYDEBATE2004/b5b29d1aaae4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=john%20kerry%20george%20bush&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=&totalCount=21&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Manipulating candidate photos</h2>
<p>AI can <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/13/image-generating-ai-can-copy-and-paste-from-training-data-raising-ip-concerns/">change images</a>. So-called “deepfake” videos and pictures are common in politics, and they are <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/07/07/trump-and-biden-deep-fakes-take-ai-to-new-scary-level-in-live-debate/">hugely advanced</a>. Donald Trump has used AI to create a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/23/donald-trump-shares-fake-ai-created-image-of-himself-on-truth-social/?sh=2ef8d92e71f6">fake photo</a> of himself down on one knee, praying. </p>
<p>Photos can be tailored more precisely to influence voters more subtly. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">my research</a> I found that a communicator’s appearance can be as influential – and deceptive – as what someone actually says. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> also revealed that Trump was perceived as “presidential” in the 2020 election when voters thought he seemed “sincere.” And getting people to think you “seem sincere” through your nonverbal outward appearance is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.2011.01407.x">deceptive tactic</a> that is more convincing than saying things that are actually true.</p>
<p>Using Trump as an example, let’s assume he wants voters to see him as sincere, trustworthy, likable. Certain alterable features of his appearance make him look insincere, untrustworthy and unlikable: He <a href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/gJkg8WGmmR5htVmKBfaOtRU_93A=/0x130:3492x2094/1952x1098/media/img/mt/2019/01/AP_19009087975304/original.jpg">bares his lower teeth</a> when he speaks and <a href="https://youtu.be/wiyUYMWtGPA">rarely</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/videos/voter-to-president-trump-youre-so-handsome-when-you-smile/3580790395346972/">smiles</a>, which makes him <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1016/S0140-1750(86)90190-9">look threatening</a>. </p>
<p>The campaign could use AI to tweak a Trump image or video to make him appear smiling and friendly, which would make voters think he is more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/pls.2015.5">reassuring</a> and a winner, and ultimately <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40072946">sincere and believable</a>. </p>
<h2>Evading blame</h2>
<p>AI provides campaigns with added deniability when they mess up. Typically, if politicians get in trouble <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/02/biden-cant-blame-his-staff-his-flailing-presidency/">they blame</a> their staff. If staffers get in trouble they <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/22/donald-trump-says-intern-apologizes-for-twitter-message-on-iowans-and-corn/">blame the intern</a>. If interns get in trouble they can now blame ChatGPT. </p>
<p>A campaign might shrug off missteps by blaming an inanimate object notorious for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/business/ai-chatbots-hallucination.html">making up complete lies</a>. When Ron DeSantis’ campaign <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLuUmNkS21A">tweeted deepfake</a> photos of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/is-trump-kissing-fauci-with-apparently-fake-photos-desantis-raises-ai-ante-2023-06-08/">Trump hugging and kissing Anthony Fauci, staffers</a> did not even acknowledge the malfeasance nor respond to reporters’ requests for comment. No human needed to, it appears, if a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/politics/desantis-deepfakes-trump-fauci.html">robot</a> could hypothetically take the fall. </p>
<p>Not all of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI’s contributions</a> to politics are potentially harmful. <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/ai-public-option.html">AI can aid</a> voters politically, helping educate them about issues, for example. However, plenty of horrifying things could happen as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">campaigns deploy AI</a>. I hope these six points will help you prepare for, and avoid, deception in ads and donor solicitations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians and their campaigns use a lot of methods, including manipulation and deception, to persuade you to vote for them and give them money. AI promises to make those attempts more effective.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor, Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059052023-05-18T12:42:27Z2023-05-18T12:42:27ZFeinstein just the latest example of an old problem: Politicians have long been able to evade questions about their ability to serve<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526913/original/file-20230517-25-ct8my0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Dianne Feinstein, in a wheelchair as she returns to the Senate after a more than two-month absence, May 10, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Senate%20Feinstein/de7f088c19ed478dad46dafebb75f624?Query=Feinstein%20wheelchair&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=19&currentItemNo=14">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/with-sen-feinstein-back-in-senate-3-of-bidens-judicial-nominees-move-forward">recently returned to the Senate after an almost three-month absence</a> that – because she could not vote remotely and the Senate is closely divided – <a href="https://apnews.com/article/feinstein-resign-senate-judiciary-committee-judges-shingles-c888eaa95acc390b8a4f50864e411ca7">left the Democrats’ agenda in limbo</a>. </p>
<p>Feinstein turns 90 in June and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/us/politics/feinstein-illness-shingles-senate.html">can barely walk on her own</a>, and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/dianne-feinsteins-missteps-raise-a-painful-age-question-among-senate-democrats">her mental acuity has been in question for many years</a>. Yet she is holding on to her seat and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3962961-california-liberal-groups-call-on-feinstein-to-resign/">won’t resign</a> despite <a href="https://apnews.com/article/dianne-feinstein-senate-shingles-biden-judiciary-committee-49374eadf516a1fb521cac466bb5d18f">fervent pleas from some within her party</a>. </p>
<p>Politicians are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.40.5.822">vulnerable when they’re accused of almost any impropriety</a> real or imagined, but <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/05/dianne-feinstein-health-concerns">physical ailments and deteriorated health</a> may be the one topic for which politicians can escape scrutiny. </p>
<h2>Health, privacy and how to be trustworthy</h2>
<p>Most people expect that their health is a private matter. And for a politician or candidate, such disclosures can be used <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/05/25/an-rx-for-politicians-full-medical-disclosure/">as political weapons by their opponents</a>. But when voluntarily entering the sphere of public service, does someone have an obligation to inform constituents about how well one is actually able to do the job?</p>
<p>Perhaps Feinstein – or her staff – knows that politicians can evade questions about their health practically with impunity. But politicians who are dodgy about their medical condition can put constituents at a disadvantage. </p>
<p>Ironically, according to my research, if Feinstein would come clean about her impairments, the media and public would probably be far more forgiving. But she seems intent on taking <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">politicians’ all-too-common route of engaging in deceptive evasion</a>. She loses trustworthiness when the public clearly sees her <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">dodging questions</a>. In <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/05/17/dianne-feinstein-absence-audio-benjamin-oreskes-cnntm-vpx.cnn">her most recent interaction with reporters</a> she was politely asked how she’s feeling. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-16/feinstein-absence-senate-washington-health">She said</a> she’s fine except for a problem with her leg. </p>
<p>The reporter courteously asked what was wrong with her leg. She said “<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/05/dianne-feinstein-health-return-to-senate.html">nothing that’s anyone concern but mine</a>.” Then she repeatedly asserted, falsely, “<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/05/dianne-feinstein-health-return-to-senate.html">I haven’t been gone</a>” from the Senate, and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/05/17/dianne-feinstein-absence-audio-benjamin-oreskes-cnntm-vpx.cnn">her office appears to be further stonewalling when asked for follow-up or clarification</a>.</p>
<p>By overtly deflecting reporters’ questions – about her leg and her absences – she is probably causing people to think and obsess even more about her inadequacies as an elected official, based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">experiments I have conducted</a>. If Feinstein demonstrated a sincere, pleasant demeanor <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/dianne-feinsteins-return-is-a-ghoulish-spectacle.html">instead of glaring at reporters</a>, and provided transparent disclosures about her health, she would shift from being perceived as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12809">duplicitous</a> to being trustworthy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">based on experiments I have run</a>. </p>
<h2>Precedent for secrecy</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, the default position for public figures – especially politicians – seems to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">diversionary maneuvers to evade questions</a>. And the reason may not just be a complicit <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">partisan base that allows politicians to deceive with impunity</a>. The media have long allowed politicians’ poor health to stay hidden. </p>
<p>History is full of examples of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315499055">media’s covering up politicians’ medical problems</a>. That, in turn, exacerbates a common perception <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1461670X.2020.1808516">that reporters are complicit</a> with politicians in concealing important information from the public. </p>
<p>Traditionally, reporters hate cover-ups. But the media seem to make an exception for health concerns. Reporters apparently consider it within the bounds of campaign job interviews to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00993853">ask a politician whom he is having sex with</a>, <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/a6c2432390bafa8f4a9efd1340e45caf/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=25289">what type of underwear he wears</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/-check-walker-acknowledges-giving-700-ex-denies-claim-knew-was-abortio-rcna52252">how many ex-girlfriends’ abortions he paid for</a> and <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/12/26/rep-elect-george-santos-admits-fabricating-key-details-of-his-bio/">precisely how gay he is</a>. </p>
<p>But reporters practically become snooty, high-brow puritans at the thought of asking politicians <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10900-009-9217-x">whether their health will allow them to show up to work</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older woman with black hair looking out from a desk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The press did not report for a long time that Sen. Dianne Feinstein, now 89 years old, had lost much of her mental sharpness and her memory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-dianne-feinstein-d-calif-attends-a-senate-news-photo/1246880948?phrase=Feinstein&adppopup=true">Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reporters in cahoots</h2>
<p>Sen. Strom Thurmond did not retire until he was 100 years old, and <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/04/14/joe-biden-shows-why-politicians-need-age-limits/">reporters largely kept</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/04/26/the-seniority-of-strom-thurmond/b0e1ed9d-f150-4261-b7c5-ed1f57dd1e06/">his cognitive ailments hidden</a>. <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article248666375.html">Like Feinstein</a>, Thurmond often showed evidence of cognitive decline when speaking.</p>
<p>An extreme example of this phenomenon of politicians deceiving is provided by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/02/02/george-santos-lies-psychology-bernie-madoff/">serial liar Rep. George Santos</a>. Unlike most politicians who lie about their health to sound as if they are impervious to maladies, the New York lawmaker took the opposite approach while campaigning for Congress. Santos listed all sorts of health problems he suffers from: acute chronic bronchitis, a brain tumor, an immunodeficiency and susceptibility to cancer. </p>
<p>Most of Santos’ claims about his life other than his health <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/george-santos-didnt-lie-about-being-an-early-covid-survivor.html">have been fact-checked</a>. After he was elected, the media thoroughly investigated and dispelled his claims ranging from <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/feb/22/george-santos/george-santos-said-he-never-claimed-to-be-jewish-b/">saying he was Jewish</a> to saying he had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/nyregion/santos-baruch-volleyball.html">played college volleyball</a>. But Santos’ statements about his own mental or physical abilities <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/george-santos-lies-drag-mugging-b2277226.html">seem to have gone unquestioned</a>. Santos was either lying or telling the truth about being unwell. </p>
<p>Either way, the public should have known.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark jacket, red tie and white shirt raising his right hand and looking upward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite fact-checking many of Rep. George Santos’ assertions, the press didn’t check out his claims about his health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/new-york-congressman-elect-george-santos-speaks-during-the-news-photo/1245739587?phrase=George%20Santos%20candidate&adppopup=true">David Becker/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fit for office</h2>
<p>It may be time to consider a politician’s health – literal, physical fitness for the office – to be fair game for disclosure. Asking politicians whether they have the ability to serve in office should not be off-limits, nor considered evidence of “ableism.” </p>
<p>If civil discussions of mental and physical health impairments can be held – rather than treated like stigmas that must be hidden – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.3.474">democracy would be healthier</a>. The public should be able to expect their representatives to be able to show up to work and honestly serve their constituents. And that means reporters and the general public should ask the necessary questions of their elected officials.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/politicians-health-problems-are-important-information-for-voters-but-reporters-and-candidates-often-conceal-them-200513">article</a> originally published March 3, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Physical ailments and deteriorated health may be the one area in which politicians can escape scrutiny.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005132023-03-03T13:24:02Z2023-03-03T13:24:02ZPoliticians’ health problems are important information for voters – but reporters and candidates often conceal them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512893/original/file-20230301-24-dj9svk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C7%2C5037%2C3353&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, right, with his wife, Gisele Barreto Fetterman.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-john-fetterman-and-his-wife-gisele-barreto-news-photo/1246307638?phrase=John%20Fetterman%20&adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. <a href="https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-us-sen-john-fetterman-hospital-stay-could-range-from-weeks-to-more-than-a-month/42993612">John Fetterman’s hospitalization for depression</a> has raised anew the question of how much health information a candidate or politician should reveal to the public. </p>
<p>Most people expect that their health is a private matter. And for a politician or office seeker, such disclosures can be used <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/05/25/an-rx-for-politicians-full-medical-disclosure/">as political weapons by their opponents</a>. But when someone voluntarily enters the sphere of public service and elective office, do they have an obligation to inform their constituents about how well they can actually execute the job they’re asking to be elected to?</p>
<p>Fetterman <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-stroke-campaign-pennsylvania-senate-race-20221102.html">had a near-fatal stroke in May 2022</a>. One reporter interviewed him during the 2022 Senate campaign and gave a firsthand account of how Fetterman seemed to have trouble <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3685530-nbc-interview-draws-new-scrutiny-over-fettermans-health/">coping with his post-stroke problems</a>. <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2022/10/12/dasha-burns--nbc-news-reporter--responds-to-criticism-over-john-fetterman-interview">She was attacked by other reporters</a> for suggesting that he was struggling to have a basic conversation. Throughout the 2022 U.S. Senate campaign, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/04/inside-john-fettermans-changing-health-scare-story/">Fetterman’s staff gave conflicting and confusing accounts</a> of his health.</p>
<p>In any other job interview in the U.S., it would indeed be forbidden – from a social <a href="https://www.eeoc.gov/pre-employment-inquiries-and-medical-questions-examinations">and legal perspective</a> – to ask about the applicant’s health. And it does not serve <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">the public</a> interest to pry too much into politicians’ lives. </p>
<p>But candidates who won’t disclose their medical records can put the voters at a disadvantage. Before citizens cast their ballots they should know pertinent information about health problems. Just as voters should know a candidate’s positions on issues, voters should know about politicians’ ability to advocate for those positions and to fully represent their constituents. </p>
<p>As The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board wrote in October 2022, “It’s fair to question <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/fetterman-stroke-pennsylvania-debate-oz-20220913.html">John Fetterman’s fitness after his stroke</a>. Communication is part of being a senator. It’s perfectly reasonable for Pennsylvanians to ask about how well he is able to listen, speak, focus, and understand.”</p>
<p>There are consequences when politicians – and the media that cover them – aren’t transparent. </p>
<h2>Precedent for secrecy</h2>
<p>History is full of examples of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315499055">media covering up politicians’ medical problems</a>. That, in turn, exacerbates a common perception <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1461670X.2020.1808516">that reporters are complicit</a> with politicians in concealing important information from the public. </p>
<p>Traditionally, reporters hate cover-ups but seem to make an exception for health concerns. The media apparently consider it within the bounds of campaign job interviews to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00993853">ask a politician whom he is having sex with</a>, <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/a6c2432390bafa8f4a9efd1340e45caf/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=25289">what type of underwear he wears</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/-check-walker-acknowledges-giving-700-ex-denies-claim-knew-was-abortio-rcna52252">how many ex-girlfriends’ abortions he paid for</a> and <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/12/26/rep-elect-george-santos-admits-fabricating-key-details-of-his-bio/">precisely how gay he is</a>. </p>
<p>But reporters practically become snooty, high-brow puritans at the thought of asking a politician <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10900-009-9217-x">whether their health will allow them to show up to work</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older woman with black hair looking out from a desk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512898/original/file-20230301-20-l24x25.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The press did not report for a long time that Sen. Dianne Feinstein, now 89 years old, had lost much of her mental sharpness and her memory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-dianne-feinstein-d-calif-attends-a-senate-news-photo/1246880948?phrase=Feinstein&adppopup=true">Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reporters in cahoots</h2>
<p>Campaigns and sitting politicians notoriously dodge health questions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4135/9781483306902">as I have documented in my research</a>. Journalists long acted as co-conspirators in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/business/media/trump-coronavirus-coverage.html">allowing politicians to deceive the public about their health</a>. </p>
<p>For example, it had long been <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/dianne-feinsteins-missteps-raise-a-painful-age-question-among-senate-democrats">an open secret among Capitol Hill reporters</a> that Sen. Dianne Feinstein, now 89 years old, has lost much of her mental sharpness and her memory. Sen. Strom Thurmond did not retire until he was 100 years old, and <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/04/14/joe-biden-shows-why-politicians-need-age-limits/">reporters largely kept</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/04/26/the-seniority-of-strom-thurmond/b0e1ed9d-f150-4261-b7c5-ed1f57dd1e06/">his cognitive ailments hidden</a>. Thurmond regularly asked people to repeat themselves, and often spoke in unintelligible sequences of words.</p>
<p>Experiments I have conducted that test <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">the effects of a politician deceptively dodging questions</a> indicate that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">evasion may backfire</a>, causing voters to focus even more on what a candidate is hiding. Coming clean about health problems may actually bolster the public’s confidence more than claiming to have a clean bill of health and then being unable to do the job.</p>
<p>An extreme example of this problem is provided by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/02/02/george-santos-lies-psychology-bernie-madoff/">serial liar Rep. George Santos</a>. Unlike most politicians who lie about their health to sound as if they are impervious to maladies, the New York lawmaker took the opposite approach while campaigning for Congress. Santos listed all sorts of health problems he suffers from: acute chronic bronchitis, a brain tumor, an immunodeficiency, and susceptibility to cancer. </p>
<p>Most of Santos’ claims about his life other than his health <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/george-santos-didnt-lie-about-being-an-early-covid-survivor.html">have been fact-checked</a>. After he was elected, the media thoroughly investigated and dispelled his claims ranging from <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/feb/22/george-santos/george-santos-said-he-never-claimed-to-be-jewish-b/">saying he was Jewish</a> to saying he had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/nyregion/santos-baruch-volleyball.html">played college volleyball</a>. But Santos’ statements about his own mental or physical abilities <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/george-santos-lies-drag-mugging-b2277226.html">seem to have gone unquestioned</a>. Santos was either lying or telling the truth about being unwell. </p>
<p>Either way, the public should have known.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark jacket, red tie and white shirt raising his right hand and looking upward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512901/original/file-20230301-20-hi6apx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite fact-checking many of Rep. George Santos’ assertions, the press didn’t check out his claims about his health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/new-york-congressman-elect-george-santos-speaks-during-the-news-photo/1245739587?phrase=George%20Santos%20candidate&adppopup=true">David Becker/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fit for office</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/10/15/23403699/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-interview-captions-disability-dasha-burns-mehmet-oz">When Fetterman had a stroke</a> in the middle of the hotly contested Pennsylvania race for U.S. Senate, the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/stroke-survivors-speak-john-fettermans-debate-struggles-rcna54216">media seemed to minimize it in their coverage</a>. <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/10/15/23403699/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-interview-captions-disability-dasha-burns-mehmet-oz">Vox called it an “asset</a>” because he would bring more attention to disabilities in Congress, and <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2022/10/what-doctors-thought-about-john-fettermans-debate-performance.html">Slate</a> said the health struggle was beneficial in helping him raise campaign money. That soft-pedaling echoed the Fetterman campaign’s own tendency to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-voters-can-and-cant-learn-from-john-fettermans-stroke">hide details or release partial truths</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-62703-380-0_2">Strokes are common, though</a>, and the public should <a href="https://doi.org/10.1258/0007142001903120">be educated about them</a>, not given the impression that a stroke is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apnu.2020.09.016">rare and unmentionable event</a>. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-van-hollen-ben-ray-lujan-stroke-health-senator/">Two other sitting U.S. senators had strokes</a> in 2022. It would save lives if the public talked more, not less, about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10410231003773342">common health conditions such as strokes</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also possible that by concealing a health condition from the public, the public – if and when it finds out – will get the message that the condition was hidden because it is a disabling one, when that may not actually be the case. </p>
<p>Fetterman’s current hospitalization at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center is for depression, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/16/1157570381/john-fetterman-treatment-clinical-depression-health-pennsylvania-senator">which his chief of staff said</a> Fetterman has experienced “off and on throughout his life.” The announcement of his hospitalization sparked an outpouring of support from colleagues and others. A fellow Democrat, Rep. <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/john-fetterman-clinical-depression-upends-start-senate-20230217.html">Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, called him</a> “a courageous leader in sharing the circumstances of his hospitalization with the public.”</p>
<p>But because Fetterman did not reveal his full medical record during the campaign, voters were unaware of the condition that has now landed him in the hospital. Given the support shown after he checked into Walter Reed, it’s possible that revealing his depression would not have caused him a loss of voter support on Election Day. </p>
<p>Struggling with mental and physical ailments is <a href="https://smlr.rutgers.edu/news-events/news/report-1-10-politicians-has-disability-thats-gap-representation">part of the human condition</a>. Someone who has depression can still be an effective legislator, but someone who needs to be hospitalized may be restricted from conducting essential functions of their work such as participating in committee hearings and voting on legislation. </p>
<p>It may be time to consider a political candidate’s health – their literal, physical fitness for the office – to be fair game for campaign disclosure. Asking politicians whether they have the ability to serve in office should not be off-limits, nor considered evidence of “ableism.” </p>
<p>If civil discussions of mental and physical health impairments can be held – rather than treated like stigmas that must be hidden – <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1999-11174-004">democracy would be healthier</a>. Voters would have the facts they need to make well-informed decisions about who can best represent them, not just by sharing their views and values, but by actually performing the work associated with holding public office and serving their constituents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Health struggles are part of the human condition, but politicians often resist revealing full medical records. The media often help lawmakers hide their conditions. That shortchanges the voters.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004242023-02-27T13:23:18Z2023-02-27T13:23:18ZAll presidents avoid reporters, but Biden may achieve a record in his press avoidance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511997/original/file-20230223-16-sysg55.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C8337%2C5541&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-to-marine-one-after-speaking-to-news-photo/1245981309?phrase=Biden%20walks%20away%20from%20reporters&adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s nothing new <a href="https://www.history.com/news/presidents-relationship-with-press">about presidents avoiding the press</a>. </p>
<p>Bill Clinton was in a major scandal – based in large part on <a href="https://youtu.be/XBzHnZiSv7U">getting caught in a deception during a media interview</a> – and successfully outsourced his White House press briefings to legal counsel to avoid having his press secretary or himself <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/lanny-davis-recalls-what-its-like-to-defend-a-president-under-siege">trapped by tough media questioning</a>. </p>
<p>Barack Obama campaigned on being the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0491.2009.01451.x">most transparent president in history</a> and then <a href="https://www.hintergrund.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/us2013-english.pdf">prosecuted reporters as criminals</a>. </p>
<p>But well into the third year of Joe Biden’s presidency, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-news-conferences#Data%20Table">he has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory</a>. </p>
<p>There’s a reason that Biden – and all the other presidents – want to avoid the press: While democracy may demand such accountability from a president, press conferences definitely are risky for them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1480559083421896709"}"></div></p>
<h2>Avoidance becomes the norm</h2>
<p>It took Biden until late March 2021 to hold his first press conference, more than two months after his inauguration – the longest a new president had gone without holding a press conference in 100 years. </p>
<p>During Biden’s first year in office, he held a total of 10 press conferences. Most of those featured him reading prepared remarks and then leaving <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/19/joe-biden-media-reporters-press-conference">without taking questions from reporters</a>. When he does take questions, he tends to call on only preselected reporters from – in his own words – “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2i2FeDw2Bc">a list I’ve been given</a>.”</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of political communication and public relations</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/ijsc.2015-0003">I have found through my research that</a> public figures such as celebrities and sports stars in the age of social media are no longer concerned with answering reporters’ questions, holding press conferences or giving interviews. </p>
<p>Why should LeBron James care about reporters when he can share his unfiltered opinions freely and instantly with his <a href="https://www.instagram.com/kingjames/?hl=en">146 million Instagram followers</a> and his <a href="https://twitter.com/KingJames">53 million Twitter followers</a>? </p>
<p>Donald Trump brought this perspective to the country’s highest office, <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/694755">tweeting about the presidency</a> <a href="https://youtu.be/HKzcbm2ZWCE">and ignoring</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/jtl5XK7QP38">insulting reporters to their faces</a>. </p>
<p>While Biden doesn’t trash the press the way Trump did, he hardly speaks to the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/jill-biden-joe-biden-question-reporters-classified-documents-1777060">public</a>. </p>
<p>The White House press secretary <a href="https://youtu.be/KF3x0kkWzok">routinely refuses to answer reporters’ questions</a>. Washington Post media reporter Paul Farhi wrote in January 2023 that press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre repeatedly responded to questions about classified documents found in Biden’s home and former office “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/02/02/karine-jean-pierre-biden-documents/">by essentially not responding</a>.”</p>
<p></p>
<h2>Risky business</h2>
<p>I have published studies of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2015.1120876">presidential press conferences</a>, looking at the effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X15600732">journalists’ asking tough questions</a>. I have explored <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1750481318766923">theories about</a> politicians’ different strategies with the press and observed the effects on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">voters</a>. </p>
<p>Critics point to various motives Biden might have for avoiding the press - and even so, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/arts/television/late-night-biden-physical.html">late-night comics appear to have plenty of fodder from him</a>. But empirical evidence and my research suggest that there are multiple reasons no president should want to give a press conference. </p>
<p>Understanding those risks does not mean I am justifying press avoidance by presidents. <a href="https://grady.uga.edu/faculty/clementson/">As a former journalist and a political campaign director for both Democrats and Republicans</a>, I believe that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/presidential-press-conferences">public servants are derelict</a> in their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F016344370202400203">duties</a> if they refuse to face the press. I’m not alone: The White House Correspondents’ Association accused Biden in 2021 of lacking “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">accountability to the public</a>.” And in June 2022, a group of White House reporters officially <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/06/30/white-house-press-corps-demands-end-to-biden-event-restrictions/">complained about Biden’s inaccessibility</a> , accusing him of practices “antithetical” to the “concept of a free press,” noting that “<a href="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/07/KARINEFINALEDITED.docx.pdf">every other president before Biden (including Trump) allowed full access to the very same spaces</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="U.S. President Harry Truman at a desk in the White House, surrounded by reporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman gives his first White House press conference, on April 17, 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-truman-holding-his-first-press-conference-at-news-photo/107422994?adppopup=true">Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dodging questions – or not</h2>
<p>The first reason to avoid a press conference is that reporters may accuse the president of dodging questions. And viewers are likely to believe the allegations – regardless of what the president actually said. The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/opinions/white-house-briefings-journalists-trump-lockhart/index.html">tendency</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2002.tb02572.x">political journalists to accuse presidents</a> of deflecting questions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2010.496712">has increased</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X08322475">in recent decades</a> and has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344370202400203">fairly common</a>. </p>
<p>During the 2020 campaign, Biden was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-dodges-court-packing-questions-scotus-nomination-moves/story?id=73523933">accused of dodging questions</a> by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-politics-courts-2da741e21e49bec61f9e50a0f4ec5b45">numerous media outlets</a>. A campaign spokesperson was even <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/biden-rep-dodges-question-about-whether-his-teleprompter-use/">accused of dodging a question</a> about Biden dodging questions.</p>
<p>I ran an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">experiment testing the effects of a journalist’s accusing politicians</a> of evasion. </p>
<p>The voters in the study all saw the same questions and answers. For half of the voters, though, I edited the video to insert the journalist accusing the politician of dodging in an answer.</p>
<p>Voters who saw the journalist making the allegation believed the politician indeed dodged. Voters who saw the identical interview without the allegation of evasion thought the politician gave adequate answers. </p>
<p>What’s more: The politician shown in the experiment had not actually dodged. Voters seem to believe a reporter and disbelieve a politician.</p>
<h2>No good answer</h2>
<p>A second reason to avoid press conferences is that questions will tend to be unanswerable. As has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2020.1811659">documented</a> by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">decades of data</a>, journalists frequently ask about divisive or controversial topics, and they word their questions in tricky ways.</p>
<p>There is no politically advantageous answer to such questions. Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">my research</a>, journalists covering the White House tend to ask about topics that divide the country – such as abortion or gun control – for which any direct answer would offend some group of voters. </p>
<h2>You can’t win</h2>
<p>A third reason is that even if a question is not divisive, and the president answers it, many voters will still think the president is being deceptive. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">I ran an experiment</a> in which I filmed an interview of a politician either dodging or answering a journalist’s question. Regardless of what the politician actually said, Republican voters thought the politician was deceptive when he was a Democrat, and vice versa for Democratic voters. </p>
<p>Simply by having a party label, a president’s press conference will likely be skewed through a partisan lens no matter what he says.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President George W. Bush speaking to the press." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President George W. Bush got defensive during his final press conference, on Jan. 12, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-speaks-during-his-final-press-news-photo/84255528?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>TMI – too much information</h2>
<p>A final reason for a president to avoid giving a press conference: The more the public gets to know a president, the more they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034379">dislike him</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">My own research</a> has revealed why a president might become more unpresidential the more he holds press conferences. The more a politician’s words inevitably diverge from voters’ feelings and experiences, the less presidential he will seem to them.</p>
<p>Altogether, presidents probably will lose stature by holding a press conference. Journalists hold the upper hand, asking questions that pose a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X08322475">rhetorical minefield</a> and wielding the power to accuse the president of evasion. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">voters will tend to believe journalists’ criticism of the president</a> even if a president honestly answers their questions.</p>
<p>Of course, if what the president is aiming for is not strategic expediency but simply fulfilling an obligation to be held accountable in his role, then the country wins when he holds a press conference – and in that way he does, too.</p>
<p><em>This story substantially updates <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-no-president-should-want-to-give-a-press-conference-157222">a story</a> originally published on March 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Joe Biden may be nicer to reporters than his predecessor, but he’s not actually responsive to the press. He has held fewer press conferences than any president in recent memory.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1826332022-05-25T12:54:54Z2022-05-25T12:54:54ZForeign companies exiting Russia echo the pressure campaign against South Africa’s racist apartheid system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464889/original/file-20220523-20-q03991.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=163%2C57%2C5299%2C3276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">McDonald's is leaving Russia after three decades of operating there.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-mcdonalds-restaurant-serving-in-the-capital-moscow-news-photo/1240709632">Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-2f6b8fc85d7b06090b9922e74a2445a7">McDonald’s</a> provided many Russians with their first taste of capitalism three decades ago. Now, the global fast-food giant is <a href="https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/en-us/our-stories/article/ourstories.mcd-exit-russia.html">exiting the country</a>. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/business-food/starbucks-russia/index.html">Starbucks</a> is also on its way out.</p>
<p>All told, about <a href="https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/almost-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain">1,000 companies have decided to depart Russia</a> so far, according to a running tally by Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Ojl3qQsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are scholars of human rights</a>, <a href="https://spia.uga.edu/student/meridith-lavelle/">political economy and international relations</a>. In our view, this <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-apple-disney-ikea-and-hundreds-of-other-western-companies-are-abandoning-russia-with-barely-a-shrug-178516">concerted corporate action</a> demonstrates how businesses can leverage their bargaining power in foreign countries – just as <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/20/g7-countries-to-provide-19-8bn-in-economic-aid-to-ukraine">countries</a>, including the United States, and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/04/russia-authorities-close-down-amnesty-internationals-moscow-office/">nongovernmental organizations</a> like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch try to do.</p>
<h2>Making the invasion more costly</h2>
<p>On top of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-all-the-companies-pulling-out-of-russia-ukraine-war-2022-3?op=1#4-hm-group-4">pressing Russia to exit Ukraine</a> and cease its targeting of civilians there, foreign companies are urging Vladimir Putin’s government to stop <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-business-dmitry-medvedev-global-trade-858a23b058209e5662ee59d768b615bd">cracking down</a> on Russian citizens who are protesting against the war.</p>
<p>Through a combination of withholding funds, selling assets and refusing to do business with Russian clients and companies, global corporations and investors are making Putin’s Ukraine invasion and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-europe-5a9f43e0e5e4da1200a440d667d6db91">domestic repression</a> more costly. Even after the conflict ends, there could be <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/russia-ukraine-war-implications-for-use-of-esg-in-investment-decisions/">larger shifts</a> in investments, making it harder for Russia to recover.</p>
<p>This is especially true given Russia’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/08/russias-reliance-on-energy-spells-trouble-for-its-economy">reliance on oil and gas exports</a>. The invasion of Ukraine is spurring importers of Russian fossil fuels to <a href="https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/5/18/u-s-to-ease-sanctions-on-venezuela-enabling-cargoes-to-europe/">find alternatives</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/mcdonalds-exiting-russia-after-32-years-is-the-end-of-an-era.html">recent estimates</a> point to job losses in the hundreds of thousands for Russians because of this upheaval.</p>
<h2>South African precedent</h2>
<p>This kind of pressure from the private sector that’s intended to improve human rights conditions isn’t new.</p>
<p>One clear precedent arose when anti-apartheid movements sprung up globally to protest the <a href="https://theconversation.com/burying-the-past-and-building-the-future-in-post-apartheid-south-africa-174010">racist system in South Africa</a>. Spearheaded by people in the U.K., these movements brought about widespread <a href="https://www.aamarchives.org/archive.html">boycotts of South African goods</a> in the 1970s and 1980s.</p>
<p>Notable <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/08/nelson-mandela-anti-apartheid-movement">results included the banning</a> of white South Africans from participating in international cricket and rugby events and forcing Barclays Bank out of South Africa. We see echoes of that campaign in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/may/18/russian-gymnast-ivan-kuliak-banned-for-one-year-for-wearing-pro-war-z-symbol">the banning of a prominent Russian gymnast</a> for wearing a Z, which symbolizes support for Russia’s war on Ukraine.</p>
<p>Many governments imposed sanctions during the 1970s and 1980s, led by European countries. <a href="https://blog.smu.edu/theanti-apartheidmovementinnorthtexas/history/1986-anti-apartheid-act/">U.S. involvement, through a law passed in 1986</a> over President Ronald Reagan’s objections, added to that economic pressure.</p>
<p>Many of the blows to South Africa’s economy, however, came from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/protest-divestment-south-africa.asp">divestment campaigns</a> largely led by anti-apartheid groups on college and university campuses.</p>
<p>These groups sought to pressure higher education institutions to sell off stocks and other assets in their endowments tied to companies doing business with South Africa. By 1990, <a href="https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/using-anti-apartheid-divestment-strategies-to-battle-fossil-fuels/">more than 180 American colleges and universities</a> had divested at least some of those assets. These efforts then spread to local and state governments and the private sector. <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/protest-divestment-south-africa.asp">More than 200 businesses</a> cut their ties to South Africa. </p>
<h2>What tech companies are doing</h2>
<p>International efforts to place pressure on abusive regimes to stop violence have evolved since the anti-apartheid era, reflecting the growing role of technology in business and society. </p>
<p>Tech and social media companies have also sought, in both Ukraine and Russia, to protect civil and political rights.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/4/22962384/snapchat-heatmap-ukraine-disabled-privacy-advertising">Snapchat</a>, for example, turned off the heatmap capabilities of its users located within Ukraine to prevent the Russian military from being able to locate groups of Ukrainian civilians.</p>
<p>In Russia, however, at least some of these efforts could be backfiring.</p>
<p>The Russian government opted to block civilian access within Russia to both <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-completely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter">Facebook and Twitter</a>, after those platforms blocked Russian state media on their websites. These are key platforms that dissidents use to document and share rights abuses by Russian officials swiftly and efficiently to global audiences. Further, Russian opponents of Vladimir Putin were increasingly using social media to coordinate their protests and dissent before the war on Ukraine began.</p>
<p>Cutting off these services greatly diminishes the ability of Russian citizens to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12509">plan protests and share footage of these events</a>.</p>
<h2>New cracks in Putin’s support at home</h2>
<p>Global pressure campaigns are generally better at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2012.726180">preventing the onset of violence</a> than ending a deadly conflict. However, even when that pressure begins in wartime, it can <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23256806">limit the severity</a> of the most extreme types of violence, like genocide, researchers have found.</p>
<p>This approach appears to work best when outside pressure is coupled with demands from domestic groups, especially secular, cultural and religious organizations that aren’t engaged in politics but generally aim to benefit society. </p>
<p>While these organizations are <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/russian-politics-the-paradox-weak-state">generally weak in Russia</a>, the country does have an organized – albeit repressed – political opposition. In February and March 2022, over <a href="https://ovdinfo.org/articles/2022/03/07/cracked-heads-and-tasers-results-march-6th-anti-war-protests">14,000 people were detained for protesting the war</a>, according to OVD-Info, an independent protest monitoring group.</p>
<p>The largest mass arrest in post-Soviet Russian history occurred on March 6, 2022, when authorities <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/14/closed-shops-zs-green-ribbons-russias-post-invasion-reality-a77344">detained 5,000 people across almost 70 cities</a> who were peacefully protesting the invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>And new cracks in Putin’s support are showing up.</p>
<p>Russian <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/01/world/europe/oligarch-putin-oleg-tinkov.html">business leaders</a>, like the self-made tycoon Oleg Tinkov – who founded one of Russia’s biggest banks – are speaking out, as are government employees and members of the military community.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/23/1100731559/russian-diplomat-un-quits-ashamed">Boris Bondarev</a>, a diplomat at Russia’s permanent mission in Geneva, also resigned, saying “I simply cannot any longer share in this bloody, witless and absolutely needless ignominy.” </p>
<p>These acts of defiance suggest that there’s a growing campaign within Russia to stop the violence in Ukraine at a time when global corporate pressure is surely stinging Putin.</p>
<p>But, to be sure, he did take several steps to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/putin-sanctions-proofing.html">insulate Russia’s economy</a> before attacking Ukraine, including stockpiling foreign reserves, reducing imports from Western countries and increasing trade with countries like China. That makes it too soon to know whether the growing corporate exodus will make a big difference in terms of ending Russian violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Bagwell is affiliated with the Human Rights Measurement Initiative, a global consortium of human rights scholars and practitioners who aim to provide accurate and comprehensive indicators of human rights respect around the world.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meridith LaVelle is affiliated with the Human Rights Measurement Initiative, a global collective of academics and human rights practitioners who work to produce transparent and easy-to-use indicators pertaining to the levels of respect or violation of human rights around the world. </span></em></p>Corporate pressure campaigns usually work best in partnership with local institutions. While Russia’s civic organizations are generally weak, there are some signs of growing defiance.Stephen Bagwell, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Missouri-St. LouisMeridith LaVelle, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science & International Affairs, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1741922022-02-15T13:23:09Z2022-02-15T13:23:09ZGirls still fall behind boys in top scores for AP math exams<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444986/original/file-20220208-25-1v9c7j6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5111%2C3407&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gender gaps in achievement for AP math exams may lead to fewer women in STEM careers. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/student-writing-formula-and-equations-on-a-clear-royalty-free-image/629330893?adppopup=true">Mint Images/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>After decades of growth, the number of high school girls who take Advanced Placement math exams is now almost the same as the number for boys. In 1997, 83 girls for every 100 boys took an AP math exam. By 2019, that number rose to 96 for every 100 boys.</p>
<p>But when it comes to getting top scores on an AP math exam, boys still outnumber girls. In 1997, 52 girls for every 100 boys made the top score. By 2019, that number rose to 69 for every 100 boys. This is what I found in my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01623532211044540">peer-reviewed study</a>. It was published in Journal for the Education of the Gifted in 2021.</p>
<p>After analyzing the test scores for over 10 million students who participated in the AP math exams from 1997 to 2019, I examined the rates of changes in participation and top achievement in the AP <a href="https://apstudents.collegeboard.org/courses/ap-calculus-ab">Calculus AB</a>, <a href="https://apstudents.collegeboard.org/courses/ap-calculus-bc">Calculus BC</a> and <a href="https://apstudents.collegeboard.org/courses/ap-statistics">Statistics</a> tests. My study predicts that if this trend continues, it may take up to 60 years to close the gender gap among top scorers in the Calculus BC exam and roughly 30 years in the Calculus AB and Statistics exams.</p>
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<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Gender-related gaps in general K-12 math achievement have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021276">gradually diminishing</a> to none since the 1960s. However, more men major in STEM fields – or science, technology, engineering and mathematics – than women. As an example, according to a <a href="https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf21321/">2021 report</a> published by the National Science Foundation, when it comes to engineering degrees, women only earned 12% of bachelor’s, 18% of master’s and 18% of doctorates in the field in 2016. <a href="https://www.mathedleadership.org/docs/resources/positionpapers/NCSMPositionPaper17.pdf">A joint report</a> done by the National Council of Supervisors of Mathematics and the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics found that gender differences in school mathematics contribute to significant disparities in educational attainments in STEM subjects. This is particularly true for AP math courses, which are among the most common <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244016682996">college level classes</a> taught in U.S. high schools. In light of those reports and my findings, I suspect in order for women to be better represented in STEM careers, it will take more than just increasing their participation in AP math courses. Rather, the focus should be more on empowering more girls to get the top scores on AP math exams, as those scores can be an <a href="https://www.mathedleadership.org/docs/resources/positionpapers/NCSMPositionPaper17.pdf">important predictor</a> of who pursues a STEM career. Ways to empower more girls to get the top scores include increasing their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0165025415616201">math confidence</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/sce.20431">interest</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2016.01.002">early math achievement</a>.</p>
<h2>What is next</h2>
<p>In order to more rapidly close the gap between girls and boys who get the top scores on AP math exams, educators must discover and implement more effective ways to prepare girls for advanced math courses.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kadir Bahar works for University of Georgia. </span></em></p>A scholar warns that women will continue to be underrepresented in STEM careers unless educators focus on helping girls do better in advanced math courses in high school.Kadir Bahar, Assistant Professor of Educational Psychology, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1623852021-06-29T12:06:07Z2021-06-29T12:06:07ZTrees are dying of thirst in the Western drought – here’s what’s going on inside their veins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407983/original/file-20210623-23-bowemi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C66%2C4025%2C2951&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Juniper trees, common in Arizona's Prescott National Forest, have been dying with the drought.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DroughtFireSeason/f2eaf0e6444141b5ba4e66133dbfb0c1/photo">Benjamin Roe/USDA Forest Service via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like humans, trees need water to survive on hot, dry days, and they can survive for only short times under extreme heat and dry conditions.</p>
<p>During <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/drought-california-western-united-states.html">prolonged droughts</a> and extreme <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010836214/all-time-records-fall-as-a-heat-wave-roasts-the-northwest-u-s">heat waves</a> like the Western U.S. is experiencing, even native trees that are accustomed to the local climate can start to die.</p>
<p>Central and northern Arizona have been witnessing this in recent months. A long-running drought and resulting water stress have contributed to <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/prescott/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD904406">the die-off of as many as 30% of the junipers</a> there, according to the U.S. Forest Service. In California, <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/topics/tree_mortality/california/documents/DroughtFactSheet_R5_2017.pdf">over 129 million trees</a> died as a consequence of a severe drought in the last decade, leaving highly flammable dry wood that can fuel future wildfires. </p>
<p>Firefighters are now closely watching these and other areas with dead or dying trees as <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">another extremely dry year</a> heightens the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix146">fire risk</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="8XoTc" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8XoTc/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What happens to trees during droughts?</h2>
<p>Trees survive by moving water from their roots to their leaves, a process known as vascular water transport.</p>
<p>Water moves through small cylindrical conduits, called tracheids or vessels, that are all connected. Drought disrupts the water transport by reducing the amount of water available for the tree. As moisture in the air and soil decline, air bubbles can form in the vascular system of plants, creating embolisms that block the water’s flow.</p>
<p>The less water that is available for trees during dry and hot periods, the higher the chances of embolisms forming in those water conduits. If a tree can’t get water to its leaves, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0248-x">it can’t survive</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407589/original/file-20210622-28-12br6ct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A dyed cross section of a ponderosa pine sapling shows the water transport tissue and conduits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Raquel Partelli Feltrin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some species are more resistant to embolisms than others. This is why <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/45079">more pinon pines died</a> in the Southwest during the drought in the early 2000s than juniper – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x">juniper are much more resistant</a>.</p>
<p>Drought stress also weakens trees, leaving them susceptible to bark beetle infestations. During the 2012-2015 drought in the Sierra Nevada, <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/fettig/psw_2019_fettig002.pdf">nearly 90% of the ponderosa pines died</a>, primarily due to infestations of western pine beetles. </p>
<h2>Fire damage + drought also weakens trees</h2>
<p>Although fire is <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5425/benifitsoffire.pdf">beneficial for fire-prone forests</a> to control their density and maintain their health, our research shows that trees under drought stress are more likely to die from fires. During droughts, trees have less water for insulation and cooling against fires. They may also reduce their production of carbohydrates – tree food – during droughts, which leaves them weaker, making it <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3040056">harder for them to recover from fire damage</a>.</p>
<p>Trees that suffer trunk damage in a fire are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13881">less likely to survive in the following years</a> if drought follows. When trees have fire scars, their vascular conduits tend to be less functional for water transport around those scars. Traumatic damage to the vascular tissue can also decrease their resistance to embolisms.</p>
<p>So, burned trees are more likely to die from drought; and trees in drought are more likely to die from fire.</p>
<p><iframe id="87j2d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/87j2d/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What does this mean for future forests?</h2>
<p>Trees in Western forests have been dying at an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12380-6">alarming rate</a> over the past two decades due to droughts, high temperatures, pests and fires. As continuing greenhouse gas emissions warm the planet and drive moisture loss, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w">increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of droughts</a>, research shows the U.S. and much of the world will likely witness more widespread tree deaths.</p>
<p>The impact that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001736">changing drought and fire regimes</a> will have on forests farther in the future is still somewhat unclear, but several observations may offer some insight.</p>
<p>There is evidence of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa061">transition from forests</a> to shrublands or grasslands in parts of the Western U.S. Frequent burning in the same area can reinforce this transition. When drought or fire alone kills some of the trees, the forests often regenerate, but how long it will take for forests to recover to a pre-fire or pre-drought condition after a large-scale die-off or severe fire is unknown.</p>
<p>In the past decade, the Western U.S. has witnessed its most severe droughts in over 1,000 years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062433">including in the Southwest and California</a>. A recent study found subalpine forests in the central Rockies are more fire-prone now than they have been in <a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">at least 2,000 years</a>. </p>
<p>If there is no change in greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures will continue to increase, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141">severe drought stress</a> and <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53306">fire danger days</a> will rise as a result.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">Rocky Mountain forests burning more now than any time in the past 2,000 years</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Johnson receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the United States Department of Agriculture and the United States Forest Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raquel Partelli Feltrin's Ph.D work at University of Idaho was funded by the grants from the National Science Foundation, Joint Fire Science Program and USDA.</span></em></p>Without enough water, trees can develop embolisms, similar to blockages in human blood vessels, and they’re more likely to die from drought or fires.Daniel Johnson, Assistant Professor of Tree Physiology and Forest Ecology, University of GeorgiaRaquel Partelli Feltrin, Postdoctoral Scholar in Botany, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604242021-05-12T18:09:26Z2021-05-12T18:09:26ZJudge rejects NRA’s bankruptcy bid, allowing New York’s lawsuit against the gun group to proceed: 5 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400326/original/file-20210512-21-kyu1cp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C680%2C3615%2C1947&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Litigation against the gun group, which had been on hold, may now proceed.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/national-rifle-association-president-wayne-lapierre-speaks-news-photo/680196506">Zach D. Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A federal judge in Dallas said on May 11, 2021 that he was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tx-state-wire-gun-politics-business-a281b888b64d391374f24539a820d60f">dismissing the National Rifle Association’s bankruptcy case</a> after finding that the gun group did not file it “<a href="https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/judge-dismisses-the-nras-bankruptcy-petition-calls-wayne-lapierres-conduct-nothing-less-than-shocking/">in good faith</a>.” The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nra-declares-bankruptcy-5-questions-answered-153423">NRA filed for bankruptcy</a> on Jan. 15 as a means of relocating its charter from New York, where state <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-york-is-suing-the-nra-4-questions-answered-144108">Attorney General Letitia James is suing the NRA</a> and four of its current and former officials, to Texas. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=3361640">Lindsey Simon</a>, a bankruptcy scholar at the University of Georgia School of Law, explains what the repercussions might be for the gun group and its leaders.</em></p>
<h2>1. What does this ruling mean?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20705869/nra-bankruptcy-ruling.pdf">NRA is no longer in bankruptcy</a>. Any <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-ap-top-news-new-york-lawsuits-dc-wire-056b7845ad1a35a68a4bf837329d9f6f">lawsuits or collection actions</a> that were pending before the bankruptcy, including those lodged by New York state authorities, can now resume their course.</p>
<h2>2. How did the judge explain his rationale?</h2>
<p>In his analysis, <a href="https://www.txnb.uscourts.gov/content/judge-harlin-d-hale">Judge Harlin Hale</a> followed the process required <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/11/1112">by Section 1112(b) of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code</a>, the provision that addresses dismissal.</p>
<p>First, he looked at all available evidence, including depositions, court filings and the many days of testimony from various witnesses to determine what the NRA’s primary purpose was for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nra-declares-bankruptcy-5-questions-answered-153423">filing bankruptcy</a>. Though the NRA gave a variety of different explanations, the court found that the nonprofit organization’s main driving force for filing Chapter 11 was avoiding dissolution in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-york-is-suing-the-nra-4-questions-answered-144108">pending action it faces in New York</a>.</p>
<p>Next, Hale determined that the NRA’s use of bankruptcy to avoid dissolution was not a “good faith” filing and should be dismissed because it sought an unfair advantage in the New York litigation. Finally, he found that appointing a Chapter 11 trustee or examiner, instead of dismissing the case, was not in the best interests of the NRA’s creditors or the nonprofit itself.</p>
<p>In making this conclusion, Hale noted that <a href="https://www.nraforward.org/">changes the NRA has recently made</a> such as additional disclosure and reporting mechanisms show the group’s officials understand how important compliance is going forward. He also observed that the NRA has the financial means to resolve its legal and organizational issues outside of bankruptcy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5518%2C3155&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a cap with the NRA logo looks askance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5518%2C3155&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400127/original/file-20210511-21-1nq5z0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York state authorities accuse the NRA of financial misdeeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NRA%20Fraud%20Lawsuit/42fe9a24971c451c827561e299a793f8?Query=national%20rifle%20association&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1326&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. What are the repercussions for the NRA’s leaders?</h2>
<p>All <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-new-york-dallas-trials-gun-politics-e2585dce9bed6633e77a96223cd28d8b">legal actions against the NRA</a> will move forward in the jurisdiction where they were originally filed, rather than being heard by the bankruptcy court. As the <a href="https://www.nraforward.org/">NRA stated in its response</a>, the organization will have to “confront its adversaries” in New York instead of Texas. To the extent bankruptcy was intended to delay the litigation process or seek a different venue, those efforts have failed. </p>
<h2>4. Will this make a difference for anyone who says the NRA owes them money?</h2>
<p>Yes, this ruling will allow the NRA’s creditors, including any litigants who ultimately get judgments against the NRA, to pursue the full amount they are owed against the organization, and all of the NRA’s assets will be available to pay them back. If the NRA had remained in the bankruptcy process, claims would have been settled according to the terms in a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chapter11.asp">plan of reorganization</a> – which often does not pay the full amount owed. The dismissal also removes the automatic stay, which paused any <a href="https://nrawatch.org/filing/nra-initial-list-of-creditors/">collection actions</a> against the NRA while the bankruptcy case was pending. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/filing-showing-nra-unsecured-creditors-support-bankruptcy/d2af47b9-c673-49a6-a1c6-1d6e77a3602b/">The NRA’s creditors</a> are now free to collect on debts according to non-bankruptcy law.</p>
<h2>5. What did the public learn about the NRA from its bankruptcy case?</h2>
<p>The bankruptcy case exposed weaknesses within the NRA’s internal management structure as well as its strategy to avoid legal exposure. Most importantly, the public learned that the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/01/28/nra-bankruptcy-national-rifle-association-chapter-11/6657581002/">NRA is solvent</a> and can afford to pay its debts. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindsey Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Judge Harlin Hale found that the gun group wasn’t acting in ‘good faith’ when it filed for bankruptcy.Lindsey Simon, Assistant Professor of Law, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1605122021-05-12T18:01:12Z2021-05-12T18:01:12ZTeeth of fallen soldiers hold evidence that foreigners fought alongside ancient Greeks, challenging millennia of military history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399507/original/file-20210507-23-1eu9oap.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=309%2C154%2C4179%2C2840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The ruins of the Temple of Victory in Himera, which was constructed to commemorate the first battle in 480 B.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Katherine Reinberger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ancient historians loved to write about warfare and famous battles. While these millennia-old stories still feed modern imaginations – Homer’s “<a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/2199/2199-h/2199-h.htm">Iliad</a>” provides the plot for the movie “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0332452/">Troy</a>,” while Herodotus’ “<a href="https://www.livius.org/sources/content/herodotus/herodotus-on-thermopylae/">Histories Book VII</a>” inspired the film “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0416449/">300</a>,” for instance – there’s rarely any physical evidence that the events they describe really happened.</p>
<p>But in 2008 a team of Italian archaeologists began to excavate outside the ancient city wall at Himera, a Greek colony on the north-central coast of Sicily, Italy. In the western necropolis, or cemetery, they found several mass graves dating to the early fifth century B.C. All the individuals in the graves were male, and many had violent trauma or even weapons lodged in their bones.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of Sicily with a cutout showing the Himera archaeological site" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400135/original/file-20210511-15-9k4vqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A plan of the Greek colony town of Himera, its location in Sicily among other sites and within the larger Mediterranean. The mass graves were found in the western necropolis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248803">Reinberger KL, Reitsema LJ, Kyle B, Vassallo S, Kamenov G, Krigbaum J (2021) Isotopic evidence for geographic heterogeneity in Ancient Greek military forces. PLoS ONE 16(5): e0248803.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The evidence strongly suggests these men could have been soldiers who fought in 480 B.C. and 409 B.C. in the <a href="https://archive.archaeology.org/1101/features/himera.html">Battles of Himera</a>, written about by ancient Greek historians. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=OO0U40kAAAAJ">I’m part of</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Z6Epx_oAAAAJ">an interdisciplinary</a> <a href="https://www.unco.edu/hss/anthropology/about/faculty/britney-kyle.aspx">team of</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ZyNk8ysAAAAJ">anthropologists</a>, <a href="https://sicilia.academia.edu/StefanoVassallo">archaeologists</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c3IARDcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and geologists</a> who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248803">analyzed the teeth of these people</a> who lived more than 2,400 years ago to figure out who they were and where they came from. It looks like early historians didn’t pass down the whole story, and our findings might rewrite parts of what’s known about Greek military history.</p>
<h2>A chance to fact-check ancient history</h2>
<p>Herodotus and another historian, Diodorus Siculus, both wrote about the Battles of Himera. They describe the first battle in 480 B.C. as <a href="https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Diod.+11.21&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0084">a victory of an alliance of Greeks from all across Sicily</a> over an invading Carthaginian force from modern-day Tunisia. Three generations later, the second battle in 409 B.C. was more chaotic. The historians report that Carthage besieged the city of Himera, which <a href="https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Diod.+13.62&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0084">this time had little outside assistance</a>.</p>
<p>These ancient accounts tell of grand generals, political alliances and sneaky military tactics such as the Greek cavalry who pretended to be friendly aid to get into the Carthaginian camp. </p>
<p>The 21st-century discovery of what looked like the remains of soldiers from around the times of these two famous battles provided a rare opportunity. Once Italian researchers had done initial studies on the skeletal remains of the 132 individuals, including estimating their age at death and looking for signs of disease, I was able to travel to Sicily with the Bioarchaeology of the Mediterranean Colonies Project, co-directed by <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Z6Epx_oAAAAJ">Laurie Reitsema</a> and <a href="https://www.unco.edu/hss/anthropology/about/faculty/britney-kyle.aspx">Britney Kyle</a>, to collect samples for isotope analysis.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I were interested in figuring out whether the soldiers’ remains told the same story as the ancient historians. The historical sources say they were likely all Greeks, with some possibly from other cities in Sicily, like Syracuse or Agrigento. Where had these soldiers really come from?</p>
<h2>Teeth record your origin story</h2>
<p>Luckily, chemistry provides a way to answer this question.</p>
<p>Different places on Earth have signature ratios of elemental isotopes in their land and water. Isotopes are versions of elements that have the standard number of protons but various amounts of neutrons.</p>
<p>The trick is that as you consume these characteristic isotopes in your food and drink, your body incorporates them into your bones and teeth. Researchers know that the type of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4754.00047">strontium in your body reflects the underlying geology or bedrock</a> where the plants and animals you ate grew. The oxygen isotopes come from your water source. These elements become a physical record of your origins.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="cross-section diagram of a human tooth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400368/original/file-20210512-17-dgd3xy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Enamel is the tough but thin outer covering of a tooth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/adult-human-molar-cross-section-of-an-adult-human-molar-news-photo/143065363">Encyclopaedia Britannica/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While bones are constantly growing – and incorporating elements from your environment throughout life – tooth enamel is like a time capsule. Scientists can use this outer layer of the tooth to figure out where an individual grew up, because it forms when you’re a child and doesn’t change over time.</p>
<p>The strontium and oxygen isotopes we measured on 62 of the individuals were incorporated into the soldiers’ teeth in childhood and preserved there, even after thousands of years in the ground. We used the combination of these elements to determine whether these soldiers were from Himera or not by comparing them to samples we collected to create a local isotopic profile for the city.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="masked scientist holding various test tubes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400144/original/file-20210511-13-1dbr947.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Katherine Reinberger performed chemical analysis on the samples back in the lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Katherine Reinberger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interestingly, when we ran these analyses, we found that the majority of soldiers from the first battle in 480 B.C. were not local. Remember, that was the fight that reportedly had allied support from all over Sicily. These soldiers had such high strontium values and low oxygen values compared to what we’d expect in a Himera native that my colleagues and I think they were from even more distant places than just other parts of Sicily. Based on their teeth’s elemental isotope ratios, the soldiers likely had diverse geographic origins ranging through the Mediterranean and probably beyond.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the majority of soldiers from the later battle in 409 B.C. were in fact local. That finding supports the ancient sources that said the Himerans were mostly left unaided in the second fight, which allowed the Carthaginian force to overpower them. </p>
<h2>The unknown role of foreign mercenaries</h2>
<p>The case of the soldiers from 480 B.C. suggests that Greek armies were more diverse than previously thought. Our results challenge earlier interpretations based on historical documents that the soldiers were Greek and points to the omission of foreign mercenaries in the historians’ accounts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ancient Greek soldier with battle gear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400367/original/file-20210512-18-10chtju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artist’s rendition of a heavy infantry hoplite soldier, with helmet, armor and shield.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/two-greek-soldiers-hoplite-heavy-infantry-with-helmet-news-photo/601071378">PHAS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400846306-012">Modern historians</a> know Greek soldiers frequently served as paid career soldiers, or mercenaries, in foreign armies. But there is little evidence that foreign soldiers fought for Greek armies.</p>
<p>Greek armies at this time were mostly the classic hoplite soldiers: heavily armed foot soldiers. They often fought in groups based on the town they were from, where part of being a citizen meant serving in the military when needed. </p>
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<p>The large variation in isotope values between the soldiers from our study strongly implies that there may have been foreign soldiers who joined the Greek side. Hiring foreign mercenaries could have changed the composition of communities in the Classical period, possibly providing outsiders a pathway to citizenship not otherwise available.</p>
<p>While the populations of Greek colonies were likely diverse because of interactions with other groups of people, not all residents of the colony would have been eligible for citizenship. Citizenship meant having a role in political life and was often reserved for wealthier men with Greek heritage. It was rare for foreigners to have a way into this highly esteemed position because, traditionally, one had to be Greek. </p>
<p>Not only does the discovery of foreign mercenary forces change the history of the first battle of Himera, it also transforms our understanding who had power and privilege in Sicily during the Classical period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Reinberger received funding for this research from the University of Georgia Graduate School (Innovative and Interdisciplinary Research Grant, Dean's Award), the University of Georgia Willson Center for Humanities & Arts Graduate Research Award, and the University of Georgia Center for Archaeological Science Norman Herz Grant for Student Research. Other funding for this project includes a Research Experience for Undergraduates from the National Science Foundation awarded to Katherine Reinberger's co-authors LJR and BK (<a href="https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5517">https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5517</a>), award numbers 1560227 and 1560158</span></em></p>Are the descriptions of war passed down by ancient historians accurate? A site in Sicily provided a rare chance to fact-check stories told about two battles from more than 2,400 years ago.Katherine Reinberger, Ph.D. Candidate in Anthropology, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1587532021-04-12T12:26:50Z2021-04-12T12:26:50ZWrite ill of the dead? Obits rarely cross that taboo as they look for the positive in people’s lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394356/original/file-20210410-19-1yhk88f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=126%2C0%2C5154%2C3467&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tributes to Prince Philip have focused on his life of service.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXBritainPrincePhilip/a20194fc75ba4ecb9dde47d81c893048/photo?Query=prince%20philip%20newspapers&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=31&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Matt Dunham</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Capturing a life accurately and sympathetically is a challenge, more so if it is one that lasts nearly a century.</p>
<p>So when a notable person like the Duke of Edinburgh dies, obituary writers face a quandary: What should be highlighted, softened or even ignored?</p>
<p>News organizations were quick to remember Prince Philip’s <a href="https://www.today.com/popculture/look-back-prince-philip-queen-elizabeth-s-73-year-love-t214423">long marriage to Queen Elizabeth II</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-56692483">decades of public service</a>. But any character flaws or mistakes, including past public racist comments, were diminished. CNN’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/uk/prince-philip-dies-gbr-intl/index.html">coverage on April 9</a> provides a good example of this softened approach. “The duke,” it noted, “was known for off-the-cuff remarks that often displayed a quick wit but occasionally missed the mark, sometimes in spectacular fashion.”</p>
<p>The Associated Press made more direct mention of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2017/8/13/the-priceless-racism-of-the-duke-of-edinburgh">Philip’s racist comments</a> – but found itself <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/media/ap-obit-prince-philip-hits-racist-remarks">under attack online and from other parts of the media</a> as a result. It later modified the language in the obit, changing “<a href="https://abc7.com/prince-philip-dies-death-queen-elizabeth/10501140/">occasionally racist and sexist remarks</a>” to “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/prince-philip-dead-at-99-0143185dc6ad526d4bb6357034972bb3">occasionally deeply offensive remarks</a>.”</p>
<p>Obituaries for <a href="https://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/archives/la-me-nixon-obituary-23apr94-story.html">former presidents</a>, entertainers and <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/media/2020/01/kobe-bryant-death-obituaries/">athletes</a> offer example after example of <a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/15358591003632563">selective memory</a>. Negativity is taboo, even in obits written by journalists about public figures. Most people don’t like to speak ill of the dead. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://grady.uga.edu/faculty/janice-hume/">scholar of journalism history and public memory</a>, I <a href="https://www.upress.state.ms.us/Books/O/Obituaries-in-American-Culture">examined more than 8,000 newspaper obituaries from 1818 to 1930</a> to see what they reveal about American culture. An obit is a news report of a death, but it also offers a tiny summary of what people want to remember about a life. </p>
<p>For most of us that memory usually represents an ideal – we tend to filter out unpleasant aspects or episodes. Taken collectively and over time, obituaries tell us much about what – and who – society values.</p>
<h2>A life in print</h2>
<p>Occasionally one can be brutally honest, such as the obituary published in 2018 in the Redwood Falls Gazette for a Minnesota woman who evidently was not well loved by members of her own family. According to the memorial, the woman would “<a href="https://twitter.com/RandBallsStu/status/1003817212283686914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1003817212283686914%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2018%2F06%2F07%2F617948070%2Fshe-will-not-be-missed-children-deliver-harsh-send-off-in-mother-s-obituary">face judgment” for abandoning her children</a>. The newspaper <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/06/07/617948070/she-will-not-be-missed-children-deliver-harsh-send-off-in-mother-s-obituary">removed the obituary</a> from its website after public criticism that it went too far.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1003817212283686914"}"></div></p>
<p>But for the most part, they focus on the positive.</p>
<p>Nineteenth-century obituaries <a href="https://www.upress.state.ms.us/Books/O/Obituaries-in-American-Culture">celebrated people for attributes of character</a>. Men were remembered for patriotism, gallantry, vigilance, boldness and honesty. Women’s obits recorded entirely different qualities: patience, resignation, obedience, affection, amiability and piety. </p>
<p>Sarah English, a wife and mother who died in 1818, was “as intelligent as she was good.” “Not at all ambitious of worldly show, she chose to be useful rather than gay. Her domestic concerns were managed with the most admirable economy exhibiting at the same time a degree of comfort and neatness not to be surpassed,” according to 19th-century newspaper The National Intelligencer.</p>
<p>The 1838 obituary for 50-year-old Virginian William P. Custis told readers of the same newspaper, “There is in the life of a noble, independent and honest man, something so worthy of imitation, something that so strongly commends itself to the approbation of a virtuous mind, that his name should not be left in oblivion, nor his influence be lost.”</p>
<p>Not everyone was remembered. Silences on obituary pages can be as telling as what was published. The few obituaries for African Americans or Native Americans in the obits I looked at were included mostly when they died in an unusual or mysterious way, lived to be 100 or served the dominant culture. </p>
<p>For example, “a respectable colored man named Thomas Henry Songan,” a 32-year-old ship steward, “fell to the floor a corpse,” the New York Daily Times wrote in 1855. The obit for Chocktaw Chief Minto Mushulatubbee, who died in 1838, assured readers that “he was a strong friend of the whites until the day of his death.”</p>
<p>Obituaries in the early 20th century tended not to focus on attributes of character. Rather, they <a href="https://www.upress.state.ms.us/Books/O/Obituaries-in-American-Culture">reflected an industrial society that valued profit and production</a>. Men were noted for professional accomplishments, wealth, long years at work, university education or being well known and prominent. Women were remembered for their associations with successful men, social prominence and wealth.</p>
<p>The New York Times in 1910 <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=FO14DQAAQBAJ&pg=PA161&lpg=PA161&dq=Mrs.+Albert+E.+Plant,+whose+husband+is+the+first+cousin+of+the+late+Henry+B.+Plant">recorded one woman’s death this way</a>: “Mrs. Albert E. Plant, whose husband is the first cousin of the late Henry B. Plant, the railroad and steamship owner, was killed this morning by the express train from New York City.” Headline after headline in news reports of someone’s death and in the obituary pages mourned a man’s “Career Cut Short,” even for deceased male children. </p>
<h2>Portraits of grief</h2>
<p>Obituaries also revealed what Americans thought about death. In the early 19th century, illnesses were “endured with Christian patience,” the deceased “ready and willing to obey the summons of her God.” </p>
<p>By the 1850s, the language became more sensational. The deceased were “removed by the Omnipotent Author,” “scathed by the wing of the destroying angel,” or “paled by the mighty Death King.” That language all but disappeared after the Civil War. After so much death, it became unpatriotic to dwell on it.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.\</p>
<p>Obituaries offer a window into what we value. The New York Times’ beautiful “<a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/pages/national/portraits/index.html">Portraits of Grief</a>” tribute to the victims of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, portrayed active people in the prime of life, with robust careers and family lives. </p>
<p>COVID-19 brings a new collective focus on death, and obituaries for its victims, I believe, will be just as revealing. But be it a royal dying of old age or a grocery worker whose life was cut short by disease, one thing is likely: The words accompanying the death will focus more on the positive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janice Hume does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Obituaries tend to play down any negative aspects of character. Over time, they reveal what we value in life.Janice Hume, Professor of Journalism, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1559342021-03-30T11:36:15Z2021-03-30T11:36:15ZHow school lunch could improve when classrooms are full again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389649/original/file-20210315-17-16klgq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5439%2C3587&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">School lunch is a lot less fun during a pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/school-children-are-spaced-apart-in-one-of-the-rooms-used-news-photo/1228514555?adppopup=true">Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The COVID-19 pandemic has completely upended school lunches, like just about everything else for students. Once schools turned into virtual learning platforms, they found <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-connecticuts-schools-have-managed-to-maintain-lunch-distribution-for-kids-who-need-it-most-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-154308">creative ways to feed students</a>, including distributing meals at outdoor <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305875">pickup locations</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/12.22.20-Universal-School-Meals-Sign-On-Letter.pdf">pandemic has renewed and strengthened national</a> and <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB364">state-level calls to make school meals free</a> for all students.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked four school nutrition experts what the break from daily in-person learning may change about school lunch.</em></p>
<h2>1. Cafeterias with more space, less noise</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsGKoXYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Christine Caruso</a>, Assistant Professor of Public Health, University of Saint Joseph</strong>: Even prior to the pandemic, staff and students were concerned about <a href="https://doi.org/10.7721/chilyoutenvi.30.1.0101">crowding and noise levels</a> in cafeterias, according to research my colleague and I conducted on <a href="https://foodcorps.org/case-studies/">school meal programs</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html">Now it’s clear that crowding</a> and <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/13/1001696/loud-talking-could-leave-coronavirus-in-the-air-for-up-to-14-minutes/">loud talking</a> are also serious COVID-19 risk factors.</p>
<p>As more children return to in-person learning, many school districts are <a href="https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/news/2020/10/23/how-are-cafeteria-s-operating-in-covid-19-">letting students eat in their classrooms</a>. Schools are also relying on <a href="https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/back-to-school/schools-reveal-plans-for-lunchtime-protocols-amid-covid-19-pandemic/2323699/">courtyards or outdoor tents</a> to create safer eating environments. </p>
<p>These measures are critical because the coronavirus spreads <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30514-2">through airborne droplets and aerosols</a>. </p>
<p>As a public health precaution, I believe that most schools need to redesign their cafeterias to provide more and varied spaces for students to spread out, rather than being tightly packed together, and muffle noise. In addition to using outdoor spaces and classrooms, students can also eat in hallways and other spaces as needed. </p>
<h2>2. Fewer families paying for meals</h2>
<p><strong>Michael Long, Assistant Professor of Prevention and Community Health, George Washington University:</strong> <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/nslp/nslp-fact-sheet">Serving the 30 million</a> students who rely on school meals has required radical rule waivers and program changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes include adjusting meal requirements and allowing schools to provide free meals <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/news-item/usda-040120">to all students</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nu13020670">my research team’s analysis</a> of government <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/school-nutrition-and-meal-cost-study">data</a> collected during the 2014-2015 school year regarding costs and nutrition, medium and large schools that offered everyone free lunch and other meals spent US$0.67 less per meal than similar-sized schools that certified students for free and reduced price lunch eligibility based on <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/cn/income-eligibility-guidelines">household income</a>. Despite the lower costs – likely due to administrative savings – nutritional quality remained the same. </p>
<p>The pandemic has renewed and strengthened <a href="https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/12.22.20-Universal-School-Meals-Sign-On-Letter.pdf">national</a> and <a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB364">state-level calls to make school meals free across the board</a>. </p>
<p>However, this shift will not be possible without new rules and increased federal funding. Without it, when the COVID-19 waivers expire – currently scheduled for the fall of 2021 – many schools will return to the familiar experience of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nu13020670">inadequate funding</a>, big administrative burdens and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304102">lower participation</a> rates.</p>
<h2>3. Healthier, tastier meals</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.fcs.uga.edu/people/bio/caree-cotwright">Caree Cotwright</a>, Assistant Professor of Foods and Nutrition, University of Georgia</strong>: Since the pandemic began, schools have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jneb.2020.09.018">modified their lunches</a> in numerous ways, introducing new delivery methods and meal packages to deter the spread of the coronavirus. </p>
<p>Schools need more federal funding and support to continue providing healthy meals to students to reduce <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db288.pdf">health disparities</a>. School lunch is more widely consumed by kids from <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1017/S136898002000259">low-income families and communities of color</a> than their counterparts.</p>
<p>When students return to school, many are eating lunch in their classroom or outside rather than in the cafeteria. In my assessment, eating in a learning atmosphere offers a unique opportunity to bolster nutrition education programs and encourage students to taste new entrees that may be packaged in unfamiliar ways. </p>
<p>For example, one school nutrition director in the Atlanta area described to me a program using online taste tests to make school lunches more appealing to students. To start, parents pick up a week’s worth of school meals, which can be quickly heated and served. Then, a group of students participate in a live Zoom session with a school chef who guides them through warming and assembling a simple school lunch meal, such as cheesy chicken tacos with salsa. Students taste and rate the recipe with the chef. Finally, the video, student comments and taste-test results are posted for other students to view before the recipe is added to the menu.</p>
<p>My research has shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/heq.2019.0113">making school meals more nutritious and delicious</a> requires engaging school nutrition directors, teachers, parents and students. These partnerships can encourage students to try new recipes and better understand how food and the environment are linked – which may result in <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1017/S1368980014002948">less food waste</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C2%2C1563%2C1041&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Child carries lunch in plastic bag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C2%2C1563%2C1041&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389647/original/file-20210315-15-1lrbknf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cafeteria workers have distributed breakfasts and lunches during the pandemic, even when school buildings are closed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/myah-abeloff-holds-a-packed-lunch-and-breakfast-as-the-news-photo/1213017507?adppopup=true">Lauren A. Little/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. More food justice efforts</h2>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.jenniferelainegaddis.com/">Jennifer Gaddis</a>, Assistant Professor of Civil Society & Community Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison:</strong> <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46681">Congress provided limited funding</a> in March 2020 to help reimburse school food providers for the <a href="https://schoolnutrition.org/news-publications/press-releases/2020/sna-survey-finds-school-meal-programs-financial-losses-mount/">financial losses</a> they experienced during school closures. But it wasn’t enough. </p>
<p>More than a quarter of districts <a href="https://schoolnutrition.org/news-publications/press-releases/2020/sna-survey-finds-school-meal-programs-financial-losses-mount/">surveyed</a> by the <a href="https://schoolnutrition.org/">School Nutrition Association</a>, a nonprofit trade group, said they had cut hours for school cafeteria workers during the pandemic in order to cut costs.</p>
<p>These workers – mostly <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.15779/Z38M341">women and people of color</a> – are far more likely to be in <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.15779/Z38M341">part-time, low-wage jobs</a> and far <a href="https://schoolnutrition.org/news/research/2020-Compensation-and-Benefits-Report/">less likely to belong to unions</a> than the teachers they work alongside. </p>
<p>Before the pandemic, a growing number of schools were employing cafeteria staff to cook nutritious <a href="https://wearescratchworks.org/">meals from scratch</a>, and implementing <a href="https://www.farmtoschool.org/about/what-is-farm-to-school">farm-to-school programs</a> and <a href="https://goodfoodpurchasing.org/program-overview/#_values">other practices</a> to improve jobs, local economies and the environment.</p>
<p>Due to <a href="https://schoolnutrition.org/news-publications/press-releases/2021/new-usda-data-fewer-meals-served-2B-loss-for-school-meal-programs/">fewer kids eating school meals during the pandemic</a> and the increased costs associated with COVID-19 safety protocols, these positive changes may stall, or even be reversed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300033/the-labor-of-lunch">My research suggests</a> these reforms are needed to <a href="https://foodcorps.org/cms/assets/uploads/2019/09/Reimagining-School-Cafeterias-Report.pdf">transform the school lunch experience</a> and maximize the <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RF-FoodPolicyPaper_Final2.pdf">ability of school meals</a> to improve public health and contribute to a post-pandemic economic recovery.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Gaddis is affiliated with the National Farm to School Network as an advisory board member.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine C. Caruso is affiliated with the Hartford Food System and Hartford Decide$ as a board member. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Long received funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to conduct research on school meal costs.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caree J. Cotwright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Students are spreading out when they eat and using more single-serve packaging. Future changes to school meals could be less visible.Jennifer Gaddis, Assistant Professor of Civil Society & Community Studies, University of Wisconsin-MadisonCaree J. Cotwright, Assistant Professor of Food and Nutrition, University of GeorgiaChristine C. Caruso, Assistant Professor of Public Health, University of Saint JosephMichael Long, Assistant Professor of Prevention and Community Health, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1574132021-03-22T01:08:20Z2021-03-22T01:08:20ZAncient undersea middens offer clues about life before rising seas engulfed the coast. Now we have a better way to study them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390351/original/file-20210318-23-11ivymv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C3581%2C2669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Divers excavate a shallow water submerged Mesolithic midden off the island of Hjarnø, Denmark. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">J. Benjamin.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s oceans hold their secrets close, including clues about how people lived tens of thousands of years ago.</p>
<p>For a large portion of humanity’s existence, sea levels were significantly lower (up to 130 metres) than they are today, exposing millions of square kilometres of land. And the archaeological record is clear: people in the past <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-first-discovery-of-its-kind-researchers-have-uncovered-an-ancient-aboriginal-archaeological-site-preserved-on-the-seabed-138108">lived on these coastal plains</a> before the land slipped beneath the waves.</p>
<p>Archaeology already tells us these drowned landscapes played significant roles in human history. Major events such as human migrations across the globe and the invention of maritime technology took place along these now-drowned shorelines.</p>
<p>But these sites can be hard to find. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379121000743">two</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379121000615">papers</a> published this week our team reports on a breakthrough in detecting and excavating one particular type of coastal archaeological site — shell middens — on what is now the seabed.</p>
<p>The rich trove of evidence in these middens offer clues on how people adapted during times of sea-level rise and climate change.</p>
<p>It was long thought shell middens would be unlikely to survive the effects of rising sea levels – or if they had, it would be impossible to distinguish them from natural debris on the ocean floor. Our new findings suggest that’s not necessarily the case.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Underwater archaeologist excavating a shell midden" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390355/original/file-20210318-23-1o4ksif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scuba diver excavating shell midden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-first-discovery-of-its-kind-researchers-have-uncovered-an-ancient-aboriginal-archaeological-site-preserved-on-the-seabed-138108">In a first discovery of its kind, researchers have uncovered an ancient Aboriginal archaeological site preserved on the seabed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A new way to detect and excavate underwater middens</h2>
<p>In recent decades, archaeologist have systematically searched <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-37367-2_3">the globe</a> for evidence of these submerged cultural landscapes. </p>
<p>However, rough currents and poor visibility can make it difficult to find and record underwater sites. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390696/original/file-20210320-21-4zopjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Danish field crew take cores of the sea floor to determine whether middens are present.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In two journal articles published this week, our team has announced new ways of detecting and excavating shell middens from what is now the seabed.</p>
<p>Previously, shell middens were hard to differentiate from natural shell deposits. </p>
<p>But our examination of three shell middens between 7,300 and 4,500 years old – from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106867">Gulf of Mexico</a>, the United States and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106854">Eastern Jutland</a> in Denmark – demonstrate how submerged middens not only survive, but retain a distinct “signature” which can be used to separate them from naturally accumulated debris on the sea floor.</p>
<p>By using microscopy, geological and geophysical techniques, 3D reconstructions, and biological and ecological studies, we teased out different strands of evidence that offer new insights into how we might find other midden sites in watery depths around the globe.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Box core" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390353/original/file-20210318-23-1wrz2ww.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We teased out different strands of evidence that offer new insights into how we might find and excavate other midden sites in watery depths around the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author supplied.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Challenging what we thought we knew about ancient coastal communities</h2>
<p>What we’ve found so far challenges current ideas about coastal use in the Gulf of Mexico and northern Europe. </p>
<p>In the Gulf of Mexico, there is a gap in midden sites from between 5,000 and 4,500 years ago along the coastline of our study area. New results suggest localised sea-level changes, not lack of occupation, explain that gap. </p>
<p>In Denmark, the discovery of these middens (which are rare in the south) hints this type of site was more common than previously thought. That shifts our understandings of how intensive coastal use may have been between 7,300 and 5,000 years ago. </p>
<p>Importantly, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379121000743">both</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379121000615">studies</a> imply our histories of past coastal use may need to be rewritten as more such sites are found. Previously, many archaeologists assumed that people only occupied stable coastal zones. However, in both of our study areas, this was not the case. </p>
<p>Furthermore, older examples of similar middens likely lie offshore in multiple regions. Our new methods can make the search for such sites easier and more efficient.</p>
<h2>Clues about adapting to a changing environment</h2>
<p>Research at these sites is generating critical information that is beginning to fill in missing pieces of the puzzle of the human past.</p>
<p>Shell middens are complex, culturally significant sites. Some are the result of people discarding food refuse, tools, and other remnants of daily life. In other cases middens are purposefully built for <a href="https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/4847166/mod_resource/content/1/Sambaqui%20shell%20mound%20socieities%20of%20southern%20brazil%20%28Gaspar%20et%20al%202008%29.pdf">cultural reasons, including burials</a>. Often they are a mix of both. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390697/original/file-20210320-23-5i3jqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In undersea shell middens we can find discarded tools and ornaments, old living surfaces, and in some cultures, human burials.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They thus provide fundamental information about past food choices, tool technology, trade practices, and cultural values. These different types of information allow us to infer how people adapted their cultures over time. They also hint at how people interacted with their surrounding environments even as sea levels rose and the climate changed.</p>
<h2>Understanding the past can help us contend with the future</h2>
<p>These findings are not just important for our understandings of the past. They have direct and significant impacts on modern people, especially the rights of Indigenous and First Nations people across the globe. </p>
<p>These Nations have long impressed on us their deep connections with marine environments and seascapes. However, recognition of these relationships in western environmental and heritage conservation policies has been slow and deeply inadequate. </p>
<p>These new findings support Indigenous and First Nations people to manage the cultural heritage of their ancestral lands and waters by documenting these relationships into the deep past.</p>
<p>The discovery of these underwater sites, and the promise of more to be found, means industry, developers, archaeologists, and government bodies must reassess how we manage and protect ancient Indigenous heritage in these underwater settings. That is especially true as offshore mining and development accelerates. </p>
<p><em>Peter Moe Astrup, Curator of Maritime Archaeology at Moesgaard Museum, co-authored this article.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-incredible-journey-the-first-people-to-arrive-in-australia-came-in-large-numbers-and-on-purpose-114074">An incredible journey: the first people to arrive in Australia came in large numbers, and on purpose</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Woo receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Bailey receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Benjamin receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Ulm receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Cook Hale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Undersea shell middens contain important clues about the past - what people ate, who they were interacting with and how the climate was changing. Now we have a better way to detect and excavate them.Katherine Woo, Postdoctoral Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, James Cook UniversityGeoff Bailey, Emeritus Professor of Archaeology, University of YorkJessica Cook Hale, Visiting Scholar, University of GeorgiaJonathan Benjamin, Associate Professor in Maritime Archaeology, Flinders University and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders UniversitySean Ulm, Deputy Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572222021-03-19T11:32:11Z2021-03-19T11:32:11Z4 reasons no president should want to give a press conference<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390403/original/file-20210318-13-19l2nm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=59%2C34%2C5562%2C3725&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A president's reputation is safer when he's in the Oval Office rather than giving a press conference.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-signs-the-american-rescue-plan-on-march-news-photo/1231650547?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>By mid-March 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden had not given a press conference since his inauguration – the longest that a new president has gone without holding a press conference <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">in 100 years</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-coronavirus-pandemic-34ffb670bddcdeb7f1224b86fe5d37ec">The Associated Press</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">The Washington Post</a> noted that Presidents Donald Trump and Bill Clinton had each held five press conferences by this time in their presidencies. President Barack Obama had held two and President George W. Bush had held three. On March 16, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki announced Biden would hold one on March 25.</p>
<p>As a scholar of political communication and public relations, I have published studies of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2015.1120876">presidential press conferences</a>, looking at the effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X15600732">journalists’ asking tough questions</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1750481318766923">theorizing about</a> politicians’ different strategies and observing the effects on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17706960">voters</a>. While critics point to <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/541580-why-is-joe-biden-dodging-the-public-and-the-press">various motives</a> behind Biden’s avoidance, empirical evidence and my research suggest reasons no president should want to give a press conference.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="U.S. President Harry Truman at a desk in the White House, surrounded by reporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390408/original/file-20210318-13-7jtvkp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry Truman, giving his first White House press conference, on April 17, 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-truman-holding-his-first-press-conference-at-news-photo/107422994?adppopup=true">Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dodging questions – or not</h2>
<p>Before discussing the risks of a presidential press conference, I want to say that I believe that <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/presidential-press-conferences">public servants are derelict</a> in their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F016344370202400203">duties</a> if they refuse to face the press. The White House Correspondents’ Association accused Biden of lacking <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/press-conferences-biden-administration/2021/03/12/332285e6-81e3-11eb-81db-b02f0398f49a_story.html">“accountability to the public.”</a> And <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/biden-holding-formal-news-conference-raises-accountability-questions/story?id=76341787">ABC News</a> questioned Biden’s transparency and accountability.</p>
<p>But while democracy may demand such accountability from a president, press conferences definitely are risky for them. </p>
<p>The first reason to avoid a press conference is that reporters may accuse the president of dodging questions. And viewers are likely to believe the allegations – regardless of what the president actually said. The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/opinions/white-house-briefings-journalists-trump-lockhart/index.html">tendency</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2002.tb02572.x">political journalists to accuse presidents</a> of deflecting questions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2010.496712">has increased</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X08322475">in recent decades</a> and has become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/016344370202400203">fairly common</a>. </p>
<p>For example, early in the pandemic, President Trump held daily press conferences. The live events garnered a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/business/media/trump-coronavirus-briefings-ratings.html">large viewership</a> akin to major sports matches or hit TV sitcoms. They featured journalists <a href="https://people.com/politics/donald-trump-dismisses-jonathan-karl-kristin-fisher/">accusing</a> Trump of <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-white-house-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-22">evading questions</a>. </p>
<p>During the 2020 campaign, Biden was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-dodges-court-packing-questions-scotus-nomination-moves/story?id=73523933">accused of dodging questions</a> by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-politics-courts-2da741e21e49bec61f9e50a0f4ec5b45">numerous media outlets</a> on issues both <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/15/democratic-debate-joe-biden-dodges-question-sons-ukraine-interest/3992266002/">foreign and domestic</a>. A campaign spokesperson was even <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/biden-rep-dodges-question-about-whether-his-teleprompter-use/">accused of dodging a question</a> about Biden dodging questions.</p>
<p>I ran an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">experiment testing the effects of a journalist accusing politicians</a> of evasion. </p>
<p>The voters in the study all saw the same questions and answers. For half of the voters, though, I edited the video to insert the journalist accusing the politician of dodging in an answer.</p>
<p>Voters who saw the journalist making the allegation believed the politician indeed dodged. Voters who saw the identical interview without the allegation of evasion thought the politician gave adequate answers. </p>
<p>What’s more: The politician shown in the experiment had not actually dodged. Voters seem to believe a reporter and disbelieve a politician. The voters seemed to have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X14535916">“truth-default”</a> leading them to automatically presume they are being told the truth by political reporters without any suspicion being raised.</p>
<h2>No good answer</h2>
<p>A second reason to avoid press conferences is that questions will tend to be unanswerable. As has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2020.1811659">documented</a> by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">decades of data</a>, journalists frequently ask about controversial topics, and they word their questions in tricky ways.</p>
<p>Reporters formulate questions that often focus on divisive issues. To questions like this, there is no politically advantageous answer. Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X15600732">my research</a>, journalists covering the White House tend to ask about topics that divide the country – such as abortion or gun control – for which any direct answer would offend some group of voters. </p>
<p>A press conference’s time constraints, with the audience expecting short answers to massive problems, can also make it impossible to give an adequate answer.</p>
<h2>You can’t win</h2>
<p>A third reason is that even if a question is not divisive, and the president answers it, many voters will still think the president is being deceptive. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">I ran an experiment</a> in which I filmed an interview of a politician either dodging or answering a journalist’s question, and I manipulated whether the politician had a “D” or “R” next to his name. Regardless of what the politician actually said, Republican voters thought the politician was deceptive when he was a Democrat, and vice versa for Democratic voters. </p>
<p>Simply by having a party label, a president’s press conference will likely be skewed through a partisan lens no matter what he says.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President George W. Bush speaking to the press." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390412/original/file-20210318-21-bguyto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=814&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President George W. Bush got defensive during his final press conference, on Jan. 12, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-speaks-during-his-final-press-news-photo/84255528?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>TMI – too much information</h2>
<p>A final reason for a president to avoid giving a press conference: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12684">Research</a> reveals that official events, such as formal news conferences, do not make a president seem presidential. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0023202">Historically</a>, the more the public gets to know the president, the more they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034379">dislike him</a>. As the saying goes, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.1.97">“familiarity breeds contempt.”</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">My own research</a> has revealed why a president might become more unpresidential the more he holds press conferences. Being perceived as “presidential” can depend on voters’ perceptions of the condition of the nation, and politicians must match their word choices to voters’ personal situations. The more a politician’s words inevitably diverge from voters’ feelings and experiences, the less presidential he will seem to them.</p>
<p>Altogether, presidents probably will lose stature, not gain it, by holding a press conference. Journalists hold the upper hand, asking questions that pose a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X08322475">rhetorical minefield</a> and wielding the power to accuse the president of evasion. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz036">voters will tend to believe journalists’ criticism of the president</a> even if the president honestly answers their questions.</p>
<p>Even without journalists’ interference, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X17744004">presidents will be disbelieved</a> by about half the populace, and the more they talk the more they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">become unpresidential</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, if what the president is aiming for is not strategic expediency, but simply fulfilling an obligation to be held accountable in his role, then the country wins when he holds a press conference – and in that way he does, too.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re too busy to read everything. We get it. That’s why we’ve got a weekly newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybusy">Sign up for good Sunday reading.</a> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While democracy requires accountability from presidents, presidents may lose stature, not gain it, by holding a press conference.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531922021-02-04T19:07:22Z2021-02-04T19:07:22ZUnder the moonlight: a little light and shade helps larval fish to grow at night<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381879/original/file-20210202-13-bt8w1j.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C572%2C2061%2C1040&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jeffrey Shima</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At night on any one of hundreds of coral reefs across the tropical Pacific, larval fish just below the sea surface are gambling on their chances of survival.</p>
<p>Our latest <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2020.2609" title="Lunar rhythms in growth of larval fish">research</a> shows the brightness of the Moon could play a major role in that struggle for survival by affecting the availability of prey and keeping predators away.</p>
<p>Understanding how that works could help in fisheries management, specifically the prediction of changes to harvested fish stocks that allow us to anticipate how many adult fish can be taken without destabilising the fishery.</p>
<p>Many fish populations experience boom-and-bust cycles largely because parents routinely produce millions of offspring that have very low, but fluctuating, survival rates.</p>
<p>The large number of larval fish that are produced means any environmental conditions — for example, increased nutrients — that improve survival odds even only marginally can lead to a big influx in the number of surviving offspring.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several sixbar wrasse swim above a reef." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381889/original/file-20210202-19-1bi8kal.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adult sixbar wrasse in courtship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author?</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When the Sun goes down</h2>
<p>In the past we failed to take into account the influences the night may have on fish development.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2020.2609" title="Lunar rhythms in growth of larval fish">research</a> we found the daily growth rates of the larvae of sixbar wrasse (<a href="https://www.fishbase.se/summary/5643"><em>Thalassoma hardwicke</em></a>) around the island of Mo’orea, in French Polynesia, are strongly linked to phases of the Moon.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-viral-wellerman-sea-shanty-is-also-a-window-into-the-remarkable-cross-cultural-whaling-history-of-aotearoa-new-zealand-153634">The viral ‘Wellerman’ sea shanty is also a window into the remarkable cross-cultural whaling history of Aotearoa New Zealand</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Their growth appears to be maximised when the first half of the night is dark and the second half of the night is bright.</p>
<p>Cloudy nights obscure the Moon, and thus allowed us to check our models by contrasting growth on cloudy versus clear nights, which confirmed the effect of moonlight on growth of these fish.</p>
<h2>Phases of the Moon</h2>
<p>We found that on the best nights of the lunar month for sixbars, around the last Quarter Moon when the Moon rises around midnight, larval fish grew about 0.012mm a day more than average.</p>
<p>But on the worst nights, around the first Quarter Moon when the Moon is overhead at sunset and sets around midnight, they grew about 0.014mm a day less than average. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="From First Quarter to Full Moon then Last Quarter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=178&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=178&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382161/original/file-20210203-23-2v1p74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=178&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Phases of the Moon from the Southern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moon_phases_en.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For a typical larval sixbar of 37.5 days old, that means its growth is 24% more on the best night than on the worst one. This is important, as growth is inextricably linked to survival and ultimately fisheries productivity.</p>
<p>We think the Moon affects larval growth in this way because of how it changes the movements of deeper-dwelling animals, those that migrate into shallow water each night to hunt for food under the cover of darkness.</p>
<p>Zooplankton — potential prey for larval sixbars — respond quickly to the arrival of darkness, and move into the surface water to supplement the diets of sixbars.</p>
<p>Micronekton, such as lanternfishes, which hunt larval fishes, may take much longer to reach surface waters and seek out their prey, due to their migration from much deeper depths.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four graphs showing different phases of the Moon and the amount of predator/prey during each phase." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=685&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381884/original/file-20210202-17-e186t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=861&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four graphs showing the larval fish (in yellow) and the amount of predator (red shading area) and prey (brown shading area) rising to the surface during each phase of he Moon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2020.2609">Proceedings of the Royal Society B</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a consequence, prey availability for sixbars in surface waters may be hindered by early nocturnal brightness while the arrival of predators may be impeded by late nocturnal brightness.</p>
<p>Thus, larval fish grow best when their predators are absent but their prey are abundant — around the last Quarter Moon.</p>
<p>In contrast, around the first Quarter Moon, prey are suppressed but predators are not, leading to the slowest growth. </p>
<p>During the New Moon, when the surface waters remain dark throughout the night, influxes of both prey and predators may be high, with the latter preventing the larval fish from enjoying the increased numbers of prey. </p>
<p>On the other hand, during the Full Moon, when surface waters are well-lit, the movement of prey and predators may be suppressed, reducing the risk to the fish but also eliminating their food.</p>
<h2>Impact on fishing</h2>
<p>More research is needed to quantify these lunar effects on other marine populations. But our findings to date are good news for those working to strengthen fisheries management, given that phases of the Moon are predictable and cloud cover that can modify moonlight is being measured by satellites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diver underwater keeping watch on one of the sixbar wrasse fish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381886/original/file-20210202-17-152141l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Observing the sixbar wrasse spawning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author?</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This makes the incorporation of moonlight into existing fisheries management models relatively simple.</p>
<p>We think this will have implications around the world, not just in the tropics. This is because the nightly upward movements of deep-water animals is ubiquitous — it is the largest mass migration of biomass on the planet, and it happens everywhere.</p>
<p>The suppressive effect of moonlight on this movement of potential predators and prey is also a global phenomenon.</p>
<p>We evaluated effects of the Moon on growth of larval temperate fish in an earlier <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecy.2563" title="Moonlight enhances growth in larval fish">study</a> and found a similar effect (moonlight enhanced growth).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-climate-change-and-pesticides-could-conspire-to-crash-fish-populations-142689">Coral reefs: climate change and pesticides could conspire to crash fish populations</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The effect is stronger and more nuanced in our latest study, most likely because the waters in the tropics are comparatively clear.</p>
<p>Our findings also hint that other factors which affect night-time illumination of the sea may disrupt marine ecosystems. This includes the reflection of artificial lights from coastal cities, suspended sediments in the water column, and changes in cloud cover due to climate change.</p>
<p>In the future, we may be able to harness this extra information to help forecast fish population change to better guide the management and conservation of fisheries around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Shima receives funding from Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund.
Erik Noonburg, a retired Associate Professor of Biological Sciences at Florida Atlantic University,
contributed to this article</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig W. Osenberg receives funding from the US National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Swearer receives funding from Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Suzanne Alonzo receives funding from the Marsden Foundation and the US National Science Foundation</span></em></p>Young fish need to find food to grow, but avoid being eaten themselves. That dance for survival is linked to moonlight, which has implications for fisheries management everywhere.Jeffrey Shima, Professor of Ecology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonCraig W. Osenberg, Professor of Ecology, University of GeorgiaStephen Swearer, Professor of Marine biology, The University of MelbourneSuzanne Alonzo, Professor of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1474002020-10-02T16:42:40Z2020-10-02T16:42:40ZA brief history of presidents disclosing – or trying to hide – health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361414/original/file-20201002-13-1t53w8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C40%2C5197%2C3494&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows speaks to reporters about President Trump's positive coronavirus test outside the White House on Oct. 2, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/white-house-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-speaks-to-reporters-news-photo/1228846131?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump went directly to the public and announced via Twitter early on Oct. 2 that “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849">Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19</a>. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”</p>
<p>The president’s straightforward announcement was unlike many presidents in the past. My research has focused on how politicians dodge questions. I have co-authored an entry in the <a href="http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/encyclopedia-of-deception">Encyclopedia of Deception</a> with scholar <a href="http://com.miami.edu/profile/michael-beatty">Michael J. Beatty</a> about how rampant deception is when it comes to presidential health. </p>
<p>It’s one of the most common types of political deception perpetuated against journalists and the public. </p>
<p>And in a presidential campaign, public opinion polls have suggested that <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2016/most_want_to_see_clinton_trump_tax_returns_medical_records">voters want to know details</a> about the candidates’ health. </p>
<p>I will be watching with interest how the White House, the Trump campaign and the news media handle the president’s COVID-19. Here’s a roundup of how other U.S. leaders and their administrations have handled information about presidential health problems.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1311892190680014849"}"></div></p>
<h2>Lie early and often</h2>
<p>At a press briefing in 1893, President Grover Cleveland’s secretary of war told inquiring journalists that their speculations about the president having surgery were wrong. </p>
<p>The nation was in a recession, and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/07/06/137621988/a-yacht-a-mustache-how-a-president-hid-his-tumor">Cleveland feared</a> that his economic plan would be doomed if the public knew that his doctor thought he could have cancer. Cleveland had surgery secretly on a yacht, the tumor was removed, but the nation continued spiraling into an economic depression. </p>
<p>During President William McKinley’s second term in office, which began in 1901, his health plummeted. He had eye trouble. He was bedridden with the flu. And he was near death from pneumonia. Yet his spokesman tamped down media speculation, telling journalists that reports of the president being ill were “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=William+McKinley%E2%80%99s+eye+trouble+flu+foolish+stories+pneumonia&source=bl&ots=IhADBZCTkx&sig=nTih1z4yvvRkZbLKRyaGSq2DuQ4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiry9S02ozPAhWq7YMKHc3kDlgQ6AEIHjAB#v=onepage&q=William%20McKinley%E2%80%99s%20eye%20trouble%20flu%20foolish%20stories%20pneumonia&f=false">foolish stories</a>.”</p>
<p>When Woodrow Wilson became gravely ill from what was <a href="https://www.historynet.com/how-woodrow-wilsons-hidden-illness-left-america-with-no-president-for-over-a-year.htm">rumored to be syphilis</a>, his spokesman issued press statements that the president was recovering <a href="http://ahsl.arizona.edu/about/exhibits/presidents/wilson">from fatigue</a>.</p>
<p>For the entirety of his service to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Press Secretary Stephen Early tried to hide the president’s paralysis caused by polio by having the press snap photos of the president in ways that hid his wheelchair. Even after FDR died, Early released <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=A_liTKBNOR4C&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=Franklin+Delano+Roosevelt,+FDR+press+secretary+Stephen+Early+pronounced+organically+sound&source=bl&ots=lAqqswCF5r&sig=aK5HXgni0xqHZk3kRLFjckDan3E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjpiM-o3YzPAhWB5oMKHXcYBVoQ6AEIODAE#v=onepage&q=Franklin%20Delano%20Roosevelt%2C%20FDR%20press%20secretary%20Stephen%20Early%20pronounced%20organically%20sound&f=false">a statement</a> that “the president was given a thorough examination by seven or eight physicians” and “he was pronounced organically sound in every way.” </p>
<p>Dwight Eisenhower was hospitalized with a heart attack, but his press operation initially told reporters <a href="http://www.ozy.com/flashback/president-eisenhowers-14-billion-heart-attack/65157">he had an upset stomach</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="FDR in a wheelchair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An unusual photo of FDR in a wheelchair – his press secretary tried to avoid images of the president in his wheelchair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-president-franklin-d-roosevelt-poses-with-his-dog-news-photo/137822922?adppopup=true">Margaret Suckley/PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is even precedent for presidential staffers lying about their own health. </p>
<p>William Howard Taft’s press spokesman, Archie Butt, was sickened from stress and fatigue. He flew to Rome to escape and get rested. Rather than admit that he was exhausted – which would seem reasonable for a person working in such a high-stress position – he told the press corps that his trip was to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=taft%20pope&f=false">meet with the pope</a>.</p>
<p>Sometimes presidents lie about medical conditions to distract from other, non-health issues. When John F. Kennedy was holding secret meetings dealing with the Soviet Union and the <a href="http://jfklibrary.tumblr.com/post/33959482484/october-20-1962-day-5-of-the-cuban-missile">Cuban Missile Crisis</a>, Press Secretary Pierre Salinger told reporters that the president’s schedule changes and lack of public appearances were due to a cold. He even released the president’s symptoms and temperature. </p>
<p>Perhaps proving that he wasn’t talented at deception, Salinger used the same cold excuse to explain Vice President Lyndon Johnson’s <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA139&lpg=PA139&dq=salinger+Vice+President+Lyndon+Johnson+flight+from+Hawaii+to+the+White+House+at+the+same+time.&source=bl&ots=IhADBZDThy&sig=ndBfAN_AVOD69evAXLp-QcJd9os&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj56_aD3ozPAhWky4MKHeicB2EQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=salinger%20Vice%20President%20Lyndon%20Johnson%20flight%20from%20Hawaii%20to%20the%20White%20House%20at%20the%20same%20time.&f=false">impromptu flight</a> from Hawaii to the White House at the same time. The Washington Post’s editor suspected the colds were awfully coincidental, but Salinger refused to comment. </p>
<p>As the political public relations adage goes: <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/12/krauthammer_clintons_incapable_of_telling_the_truth_another_case_of_coverup_being_worse_than_the_crime.html">The cover-up is worse</a> than the crime. </p>
<h2>Trump, Nixon and candidate debates</h2>
<p>In 2016, both U.S. presidential candidates <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-panel-devolves-into-shoutfest-over-trumps-taxes-medical-records/">Donald Trump</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html">Hillary Clinton</a> were caught deceiving the public about their health. Each candidate <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-health-doctor-490836">accused the other</a> of lying about medical conditions.</p>
<p>Questions may now arise as to whether Trump gave a subpar performance in the debate because of his health, although presumably he and his wife and staff were tested for COVID-19 prior to the debate.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, it is worth noting that in the most famous televised debate in U.S. history, the <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/first-kennedy-nixon-debate">Sept. 26, 1960, Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon</a> showdown – after which many voters said they decided to vote for Kennedy – Nixon was ill and unrested. Nixon had been in the hospital a couple of weeks earlier and looked a little gaunt from having recently lost five pounds. </p>
<p>Nixon had been campaigning intensely and did not prepare for the debate. He held a campaign event that morning with the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners, and never met with his staff and didn’t even take their calls. Meanwhile, Kennedy had been fiercely preparing with his advisers at the Knickerbocker Hotel in Chicago.</p>
<p>Similarly, Trump had held several public events prior to the debate and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/trump-debate-prep/index.html">did not spend time preparing in private</a> for it, as Biden did. </p>
<p>After an initial announcement with remarkable transparency, it remains to be seen whether Trump will continue in that vein or adopt the more traditional practices of presidents who were less than open about their health.</p>
<p><em>This story has been corrected to clarify that it was rumored that President Woodrow Wilson had syphilis.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-presidents-lying-about-their-health-65393">an article</a> originally published on September 13, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump was direct in announcing he had COVID-19. But presidents in the past have been very good at deceiving the public about the state of their health. Which direction will Trump go now?David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1439642020-08-06T12:33:59Z2020-08-06T12:33:59ZNuclear threats are increasing – here’s how the US should prepare for a nuclear event<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351408/original/file-20200805-20-xvz6pv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C202%2C7957%2C4062&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A visitor to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum views a photo of the aftermath of the 1945 bombing. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/visitor-to-hiroshima-peace-memorial-museum-views-a-large-news-photo/1227916081?adppopup=true">Carl Court/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Because several generations have passed since the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki – the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare – some may think the threat from nuclear weapons has receded. But <a href="https://pulitzercenter.org/journalism/issues/nuclear-threats">international developments</a>, including <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-07-04/thinking-about-unthinkable-ukraine">nuclear threats from Russia in the war in Ukraine</a>, have brought a broader awareness of the vulnerability to global peace from nuclear events.</p>
<p>I’ve been <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Cham_Dallas2">studying the effects of nuclear events</a> – from detonations to accidents – for over 30 years. This has included my direct involvement in research, teaching and humanitarian efforts in multiple expeditions to Chernobyl- and Fukushima-contaminated areas. Now I am involved in the proposal for the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-017-0116-y">formation of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce</a>, which I proposed in 2017.</p>
<p>Such a group could bring together nuclear and nonnuclear technical and health professionals for education and training, and help to meet the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00202">preparedness, coordination, collaboration and staffing requirements</a> necessary to respond to a large-scale nuclear crisis. </p>
<p>What would this workforce need to be prepared to manage? For that we can look back at the legacy of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91076/original/image-20150806-5263-pc5aav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hiroshima Prefecture Industrial Promotion Hall after the blast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/65847118@N06/6018958296/">Maarten Heerlien/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happens when a nuclear device is detonated over a city?</h2>
<p>Approximately <a href="http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/MED/med_chp10.shtml">135,000 and 64,000 people died</a>, respectively, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The <a href="http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/MED/med_chp10.shtml">great majority</a> of deaths happened in the first days after the bombings, mainly from thermal burns, severe physical injuries and radiation. </p>
<p>The great majority of doctors and nurses in Hiroshima were killed and injured, and therefore unable to assist in the response. This was largely due to the concentration of medical personnel and facilities in inner urban areas. This exact concentration exists today in the majority of American cities, and is a chilling reminder of the difficulty in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2013.103">medically responding</a> to nuclear events. </p>
<p>What if a nuclear device were detonated in an urban area today? I explored this issue in a 2007 study modeling a nuclear weapon attack on <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-6-5">four American cities</a>. As in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the majority of deaths would happen soon after the detonation, and the local health care response capability would be largely eradicated. </p>
<p>Models <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/DMP.0b013e318159a9e3">show</a> that such an event in an urban area in particular will not only destroy the existing public health protections but will, most likely, make it <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK215195/?report=reader">extremely difficult</a> to respond, recover and rehabilitate them. </p>
<p>Very few medical personnel today have the skills or knowledge to treat the kind and the quantity of injuries a nuclear blast can cause. Health care workers would have <a href="http://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2017.00202">little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims</a>. Thermal burns would require enormous resources to treat even a single patient, and a large number of patients with these injuries will overwhelm any existing medical system. There would also be a massive number of laceration injuries from the breakage of virtually all glass in a wide area. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91080/original/image-20150806-5268-1pwsmh4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Officials in protective gear check for signs of radiation on children who are from the evacuation area near the Fukushima Daini nuclear plant in Koriyama in this March 13, 2011 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Files</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Getting people out of the blast and radiation contamination zones</h2>
<p>A major nuclear event would create widespread panic, as large populations would fear the spread of radioactive materials, so evacuation or sheltering in place must be considered. </p>
<p>For instance, within a few weeks after the Chernobyl accident, more than <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Appendices/Chernobyl-Accident---Appendix-2--Health-Impacts/">116,000 people were evacuated</a> from the most contaminated areas of Ukraine and Belarus. Another 220,000 people were relocated in subsequent years. </p>
<p>The day after the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami, over <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/11/AR2011031103673.html">200,000 people were evacuated</a> from <a href="http://fukushimaontheglobe.com/the-earthquake-and-the-nuclear-accident/evacuation-orders-and-restricted-areas">areas within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of the nuclear plant</a> because of the fear of the potential for radiation exposure.</p>
<p>The evacuation process in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Japan was plagued by misinformation, inadequate and confusing orders and delays in releasing information. There was also trouble evacuating everyone from the affected areas. Elderly and infirm residents were left in areas near radioactive contamination, and many others moved unnecessarily from uncontaminated areas (resulting in many deaths from winter conditions). All of these troubles lead to a loss of public trust in the government. </p>
<p>However, an encouraging fact about nuclear fallout (and not generally known) is that the actual area that will receive dangerous levels of radioactive fallout is actually only a fraction of the total area in a circle around the detonation zone. For instance, in a <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1160/EPA_Planning_Guidance_for_Response_to_a_Nuclear_Detonation.pdf?1596653235">hypothetical low-yield (10 kiloton) nuclear bomb</a> over Washington, D.C., only limited evacuations are planned. Despite projections of <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041502969.html">100,000 fatalities</a> and about 150,000 casualties, the casualty-producing radiation plume would actually be expected to be confined to a relatively small area. (Using a clock-face analogy, the danger area would typically take up only a two-hour slot on the circle around the detonation, dictated by wind: for example, 2-4 o'clock.)</p>
<p>People upwind would not need to take any action, and most of those downwind, in areas receiving relatively small radiation levels (from the point of view of being sufficient to cause radiation-related health issues), would need to seek only “moderate shelter.” That means basically staying indoors for a day or so or until emergency authorities give further instructions.</p>
<h2>The long-term effects of radiation exposure</h2>
<p>The Radiation Effects Research Foundation, which was established to study the effects of radiation on survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has been tracking the health effects of radiation for decades. </p>
<p>According to the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, about <a href="http://www.rerf.jp/general/qa_e/qa2.html">1,900 excess cancer deaths</a> can be attributed to the atomic bombs, with about 200 cases of leukemia and 1,700 solid cancers. Japan has constructed very detailed cancer screenings after Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Fukushima. </p>
<p>But the data on many potential health effects from radiation exposure, such as birth defects, are actually quite different from the prevailing public perception, which has been derived not from validated science education but from entertainment outlets (I teach a university course on the impact of media and popular culture on disaster knowledge).</p>
<p>While it has been shown that intense medical X-ray exposure has accidentally produced birth defects in humans, there is doubt about whether there were <a href="https://www.rerf.or.jp/en/programs/roadmap_e/health_effects-en/geneefx-en/birthdef/">birth defects</a> in the descendants of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. Most respected long-term investigations have concluded there are no statistically significant increases in birth defects resulting in atomic bomb survivors. </p>
<p>Looking at data from Chernobyl, where the release of airborne radiation was 100 times as much as Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined, there is a lack of definitive data for radiation-induced birth defects.</p>
<p>A wide-ranging <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1160/EPA_Planning_Guidance_for_Response_to_a_Nuclear_Detonation.pdf?1596653235">WHO study</a> concluded that there were no differences in rates of mental retardation and emotional problems in Chernobyl radiation-exposed children compared to children in control groups. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1469-7610.00613">Harvard review</a> on Chernobyl concluded that there was no substantive proof regarding radiation-induced effects on embryos or fetuses from the accident. Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh231">study looked at the congenital abnormality registers</a> for 16 European regions that received fallout from Chernobyl and concluded that the widespread fear in the population about the possible effects of radiation exposure on the unborn fetus was not justified. </p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/dmp.2012.72">most definitive Chernobyl health impact</a> in terms of numbers was the dramatic increase of elective abortions near and at significant distances from the accident site. </p>
<p>In addition to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2017.1338005">rapid response and evacuation plans</a>, a Nuclear Global Health Workforce could help health care practitioners, policymakers, administrators and others understand <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-019-0197-x">myths and realities of radiation</a>. In the critical time just after a nuclear crisis, this would help officials make evidence-based policy decisions and help people understand the actual risks they face.</p>
<h2>What’s the risk of another Hiroshima or Nagasaki?</h2>
<p>Today, the risk of a nuclear exchange – and its devastating impact on medicine and public health worldwide – has only escalated compared to previous decades. Nine countries are <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/worldwide">known to have nuclear weapons</a>, and international relations are increasingly volatile. The <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2020-03/surging-us-nuclear-weapons-budget-growing-danger">U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.hudson.org/research/16199-the-message-in-russia-s-new-nuclear-weapons-strategy-don-t-mess-with-us-but-let-s-talk">Russia</a> are heavily investing in the modernization of their nuclear stockpiles, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2019.1628511">China</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2018.1533162">India and Pakistan</a> are rapidly expanding the size and sophistication of their nuclear weapon capabilities. The developing technological sophistication among terrorist groups and the growing global availability and distribution of radioactive materials are also <a href="https://www.nti.org/about/projects/nti-index/">especially worrying</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In recent years, a number of government and private organizations have held meetings (all of which I attended) to devise large-scale medical responses to a nuclear weapon detonation in the U.S. and worldwide. They include the National Academy of Sciences, the National Alliance for Radiation Readiness, National Disaster Life Support Foundation, Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, and the Radiation Injury Treatment Network, which includes 74 hospitals nationwide actively preparing to receive radiation-exposed patients. </p>
<p>Despite the gloomy prospects of health outcomes of any large-scale nuclear event common in the minds of many, there are a number of concrete steps the U.S. and other countries can take to prepare. It’s our obligation to respond. </p>
<p><em>This article is an update to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-if-it-happened-again-what-we-need-to-do-to-prepare-for-a-nuclear-event-45564">article originally published in 2015</a> that includes links to more recent research and updated information on the threat of nuclear incidents. It was updated again in August 2022 to add a reference to nuclear threats related to war in Ukraine.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cham Dallas has received funding from:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), through the State of Georgia Division of Public Health (DPH), Georgia Emergency Preparedness (Hospital Preparedness and Ebola Emergency Training)
U.S. Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), through the State of Georgia Division of Public Health (DPH), “Georgia Hospital Emergency Preparedness Exercises”
U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), through the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA), “Veterinary Medicine Training for the AMA Basic Disaster Life Support (BDLS) Curriculum
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), “FSIS/FERN Food Emergency Management Program Cooperative Agreement”
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)/ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “Center for Mass Destruction Defense, a CDC Specialty Center for Public Health Preparedness”
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (HRSA #BTCDP 05-080), “Bioterrorism Training and Curriculum Development Program
He is affiliated with:
Senator Max Cleland (D-GA); Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA); Congressman Paul Broun (R-GA); Congressman Jody Hice (R-GA)
</span></em></p>What if there was another nuclear incident in the US? A disaster management scholar looks back at the history of nuclear events to assess the risk.Cham Dallas, University Professor Department of Health Policy & Management, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1343252020-03-25T18:01:46Z2020-03-25T18:01:46ZHotter weather brings more stress, depression and other mental health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322989/original/file-20200325-168912-jytjmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will a warmer world be more taxing on mental health?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/business-commuters-walking-home-after-work-sunset-royalty-free-image/171581826">Bim/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the big idea</h2>
<p>“Thinking about your mental health – which includes stress, depression and problems with emotions – for how many of the last 30 days was your mental health not good?”</p>
<p>Would your answer be different if the weather had been much cooler or much hotter over the past month? </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230316">We found that</a> cooler days, compared to the comfortable temperature range of 60 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, make people less likely to report days of bad mental health, while hotter days increase this probability.</p>
<p>Hotter temperatures really tend to get to people after about 10 consecutive days, but cooler days have an immediate effect.</p>
<p>We also wanted to know the economic cost of increasing temperatures in terms of potential changes in mental health. Our estimate: The average American would be willing to pay between US$2.60 and $4.60 to avoid an additional very hot day (over 80°F) in the past month in order to maintain current mental health status.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Average global temperature <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally">has increased by about 1.4 F</a> (0.8 degrees Celsius) since global temperature record-keeping began in 1880, with two-thirds of this increase occurring in the last 40 years. The trend continues. </p>
<p>While numerous studies have linked heat to negative physical outcomes, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/app.3.4.152">including increased</a> <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2941249">heat-related deaths</a>, scientists have just began to analyze the effects of heat on mental health. An emerging field of research has discovered <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1801528115">increased reports</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102240">of bad mental health</a>, more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195750">expressions of negative emotions</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x">higher suicide rates</a> as the temperature rises.</p>
<p>The promotion of mental health has – for the first time – been <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg3">included in the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda</a>, as a goal to be reached by 2030. In a rapidly warming world, temperature increases pose a challenge to achieving that goal of “good health and well-being.” Our study attempted to gauge the magnitude of that challenge by quantifying the effect of temperature on self-reported mental health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322990/original/file-20200325-168907-yd3gmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The experience of hot weather affects mental health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girl-teen-headache-from-sun-stroke-sunny-hot-day-royalty-free-image/1091395858">coffeekai/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How we do this work</h2>
<p>Our research relied on finding the relationship between day-to-day fluctuations in county-level <a href="http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/">temperature</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/index.html">self-reported mental health</a> for over 3 million Americans between 1993 and 2010, as compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention via phone surveys.</p>
<p>Estimating the economic impact of temperature on mental health is not straightforward: There is no “market” for people to directly purchase mental health.</p>
<p>We used two nonmarket valuation methods, including a <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo3684031.html">longstanding technique</a> pioneered by Nobel Laureate <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nRWVCBQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Gary Becker</a>, to estimate how much the average American would be willing to pay to mitigate the impact of temperature on poorer mental health.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>We would like to further explore which demographic and socioeconomic groups are particularly vulnerable to hotter days.</p>
<p>We would also like to know how community-level factors – like social cohesion and neighborhood environment – and individual adaptation actions – like air conditioning and migration – mediate the effects of temperature on individual mental health.</p>
<p>For example, previous studies have shown that the observed increase in heat-related deaths would have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/684582">larger in the absence of air conditioning</a>. Is this also the case for mental health? Answering these questions would help target policies in a cost-effective way.</p>
<p><em>Economist <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mengyaoli-amelia">Mengyao Li</a> led this research and coauthored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a rapidly warming world, temperature increases are a challenge to mental well-being. A group of economists quantified the relationship.Susana Ferreira, Associate Professor of Agricultural & Applied Economics, University of GeorgiaTravis Smith, Assistant Professor of Agricultural & Applied Economics, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1339742020-03-18T17:54:25Z2020-03-18T17:54:25ZThe US owes $23.5 trillion – but can still afford a big coronavirus stimulus package<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321144/original/file-20200317-60885-16icuvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C40%2C2958%2C1954&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">America's credit card has no spending limit. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">photo168/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
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<p>The U.S. government now <a href="http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current">owes over US$23.5 trillion in debt</a>, or about $71,000 for <a href="https://www.census.gov/popclock/">every man, women and child</a> living within its borders. It has risen $3 trillion since President Trump took office in 2017 and is almost double what it was just 10 years ago. </p>
<p>U.S. government officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/stimulus-package.html">are discussing another expensive stimulus package</a> – possibly as much as $1 trillion and <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-obama-s-stimulus-package-3305625">bigger than the one</a> enacted in 2009 during the midst of the financial crisis – to help the U.S. economy make it through the coronavirus pandemic. </p>
<p>But in light of its large debt, can the federal government really afford more spending? </p>
<p>The national debt represents the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables">accumulation of past deficits</a> that the federal government has run, pretty much continuously, since 1931. Prior to that, surpluses were much more common, apart from the years following the Civil War. </p>
<p>But its size is not a problem. The amount of government debt simply reflects the timing of taxes. Higher spending and lower taxes today mean more borrowing that will need to be paid off by higher taxes in the future. </p>
<p>Not everyone will be happy about that, and the government’s resources are not unlimited. But because the economy grows over time, collecting those future taxes make spending today affordable. </p>
<p>In addition, the $23.5 trillion figure, while large, is a bit misleading because $6 trillion of this is owed to other government agencies like Social Security. While that’s real money, it’s a bit like owing your spouse. </p>
<p>As long as U.S. fiscal institutions are strong and effective, and the long-run productive capacity of the nation’s economy is secure, there is no economic reason to worry the government can’t afford a large stimulus package. </p>
<p>To remain solvent and ultimately pay what it owes, the Treasury – which sells notes and bonds to investors frequently to raise money to finance the deficit – need only balance its books over the long run, rather than over an arbitrary unit of time like a year. So annual national deficits are not always a cause for concern.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-LongTerm-Rate-Data-Visualization.aspx">Historically low interest rates</a> on government debt suggest that bond market participants agree with this view. </p>
<p>And in times of crisis, U.S. debt is seen as a haven, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield">pushing borrowing costs even lower</a>. Indeed, with these low rates, sufficient economic growth can allow the government to <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/aea/2019conference/program/pdf/14020_paper_etZgfbDr.pdf">borrow indefinitely</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/opinion/coronavirus-recession.html">Many economists</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=V8nHvIYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">including me</a>, argue that fiscal stimulus is needed now because the disruptions from social distancing and other necessary precautions against the coronavirus will likely drive the economy into recession. The state of the nation’s public health is a valid concern of the federal government, as is mitigating the harm recessions can do to workers and small business. </p>
<p>The pandemic will end – that we can be sure of – and the economy will get back on track over time. But worries about the debt should not prevent government actions from helping people now. We can afford it.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-22-trillion-national-debt-doesnt-matter-heres-what-you-should-worry-about-instead-111805">article originally published</a> on Feb. 14, 2019.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William D. Lastrapes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration is asking for US$850 billion in stimulus spending. Given the debt’s already at record levels, can the US afford it?William D. Lastrapes, Professor of Economics, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.