tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/university-of-maryland-center-for-environmental-science-3201/articlesThe University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science2022-07-18T12:26:45Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1862862022-07-18T12:26:45Z2022-07-18T12:26:45ZTo reduce harmful algal blooms and dead zones, the US needs a national strategy for regulating farm pollution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474164/original/file-20220714-32338-xz3rmp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=52%2C0%2C8713%2C5835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite photo of an algal bloom in western Lake Erie, July 28, 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/86000/86327/erie_oli_2015209_lrg.jpg">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Midsummer is the time for forecasts of the size of this year’s “dead zones” and algal blooms in major lakes and bays. Will the <a href="https://www.nola.com/news/environment/article_bfc1ba32-e2ac-11ec-9909-5fd0e4edb56b.html">Gulf of Mexico dead zone</a> be the size of New Jersey, or only as big as Connecticut? Will Lake Erie’s bloom blossom to a <a href="https://www.toledoblade.com/local/2014/08/03/Water-crisis-grips-area/stories/20140803090">human health crisis</a>, or just devastate the <a href="https://www.ectinc.com/projects/economic-benefits-costs-of-reducing-harmful-algal-blooms-in-lake-erie/">coastal economy</a>? </p>
<p>We are scientists who each have spent almost 50 years figuring out <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ARkaE6cAAAAJ&hl=en">what causes dead zones</a> and what it will take to resuscitate them and reduce <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-K4wV5QAAAAJ&hl=en">risks of toxic blooms of algae</a>. Researchers can <a href="https://theconversation.com/forecasting-dead-zones-and-toxic-algae-in-us-waterways-a-bad-year-for-lake-erie-43747">forecast</a> these phenomena quite well and have calculated the nitrogen and phosphorus pollution cuts needed to reduce them. </p>
<p>These targets are now written into formal government commitments to clean up <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.09.007">Lake Erie</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1705293114">Gulf</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2384">Chesapeake Bay</a>. Farmers and land owners nationwide received US$30 billion to support conservation, including practices designed to reduce water pollution, from <a href="https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news-release/new-ewg-database-details-30-billion-spent-us-farm-conservation-programs">2005 to 2015</a>, and are scheduled to receive $60 billion more between <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12024#:%7E:text=Spending%20for%20agricultural%20conservation%20programs,are%20reauthorized%20with%20no%20changes.">2019 and 2028</a>. </p>
<p>But these efforts have fallen short, mainly because controls on nutrient pollution from agriculture are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00123">weak and ineffective</a>. In our view, there is no shortage of solutions to this problem. What’s needed is technological innovation and stronger political will. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing a zone with low oxygen values along the Louisiana coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474157/original/file-20220714-32176-2cyi2q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gulf of Mexico hypoxic (dead) zone in 2021, which measured 6,334 square miles (16,400 square kilometers). Lower values represent less dissolved oxygen in the water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nrtwq.usgs.gov/nwqn/Sites/GULF_PRELIM/cruise2021-Final_2021_map_KM.jpg">Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Problems return to Lake Erie</h2>
<p>State and federal agencies have known since the 1970s that overloading lakes and bays with nutrients generates huge blooms of algae. When the algae die and decompose, they deplete oxygen in the water, creating dead zones that can’t support aquatic life. But in each of these “big three” water bodies, efforts to curb nutrient pollution have been slow and halting. </p>
<p>The U.S., Canada and cities around Lake Erie started working to reduce phosphorus pollution in the lake from domestic and industrial wastes <a href="https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/58?tour=12&index=11">in 1972</a>. Water quality quickly improved, dead zones shrank and harmful algal blooms became less frequent. </p>
<p>But the scourges of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.02.004">low-oxygen waters and sometimes-toxic algae</a> reappeared in the mid-1990s. This time, the source was mostly runoff from farm soils saturated with phosphorus from repeated applications of fertilizer and manure. Climate change made matters worse: Warmer waters hold less oxygen and <a href="https://blog.nature.org/science/2014/08/27/understanding-the-lake-erie-algal-bloom-toledo-water-shutdown/">cause faster growth of algae</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar chart showing phosphorus entering Lake Erie 1967-2001." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474182/original/file-20220714-33068-wgdrw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Phosphorus loads to Lake Erie, 1967-2001. Nonpoint sources are wide areas without a distinct discharge point, such as farm fields.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.02.004">Scavia et al., 2014</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Slow progress in the Chesapeake Bay</h2>
<p>Nitrogen and phosphorus reach the Chesapeake Bay from sources including wastewater treatment plants; air pollution emitters, such as factories and cars; and runoff from urban, suburban and agricultural lands. In 1987 the federal government and states around the bay agreed to reduce these flows by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/chesapeake-bay-tmdl/chesapeake-bay-agreements">40% by the year 2000</a> to restore water quality. But this effort relied on voluntary action and failed to make much progress. </p>
<p>In 2010 the states and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency entered <a href="https://www.epa.gov/chesapeake-bay-tmdl/chesapeake-bay-tmdl-document">a legally binding commitment</a>, to reduce pollutant loads below prescribed maximum levels needed to restore water quality. If the states make inadequate progress, the EPA can limit or rescind their permitting authority, and the states may lose federal funding. </p>
<p>Nitrogen and phosphorus pollution has been <a href="https://www.chesapeakeprogress.com/clean-water/2017-watershed-implementation-plans">reduced</a> primarily by tightening permit requirements and upgrading wastewater treatment plants. Air pollution controls for power plants and vehicles have also reduced nitrogen reaching the bay. Water quality has improved, and the yearly dead zone has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152722">shrunk modestly</a>. </p>
<p>But with the commitment’s 2025 deadline nearing, nitrogen loads have been reduced by less then 50% of the targeted amounts, phosphorus by <a href="https://www.chesapeakebay.net/news/pressrelease/bay_program_model_shows_decline_in_nutrient_sediment_pollution_entering_the">less then 64%</a>. Most of the remaining pollution comes from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20101">farm runoff and urban stormwater</a>.
Intensifying agriculture in rural areas and sprawl in urban areas are counteracting other cleanup efforts. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Og4gYUR_m94?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Cleaning up water bodies with large watersheds, like the Chesapeake Bay (64,000 square miles/165,000 square kilometers, involves many states and thousands of pollution sources.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Failure in the Gulf of Mexico</h2>
<p>The Gulf of Mexico dead zone forms every year during the summer, fueled by nutrients washing down the Mississippi River from Midwest farms. It <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/larger-than-average-gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-measured">typically covers at least 6,000 square miles</a>, sometimes expanding up to 9,000 square miles (23,000 square kilometers), and affects an area very rich in fisheries. </p>
<p>In 2001, the EPA and 12 Mississippi River basin states agreed to take action to reduce the Gulf dead zone by two-thirds by 2015. Researchers estimated that this would require <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-03/documents/2008_1_31_msbasin_sab_report_2007.pdf">reducing nitrogen loads reaching the Gulf by about 45%</a>, mostly from the Corn Belt. </p>
<p>Now that deadline has been <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-10/documents/htf_report_to_congress_final_-_10.1.15.pdf">extended to 2035</a>. Nitrogen and phosphorus loadings at the mouth of the Mississippi River <a href="https://nrtwq.usgs.gov/nwqn/#/GULF">haven’t budged in 30 years</a>, so actions taken to date have <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ms-htf/history-hypoxia-task-force">failed to shrink the Gulf dead zone</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar chart showing measurements of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone since 1985." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474158/original/file-20220714-32145-o1yeg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Since 2017 the Gulf of Mexico dead zone has covered an average of 5,380 square miles (14,000 square kilometers), which is 2.8 times larger than the 2035 target set by a federal task force.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/larger-than-average-gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-measured">LUMCON/NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overwhelmed by agriculture</h2>
<p>In 2020, the EPA and Ohio <a href="https://epa.ohio.gov/static/Portals/35/tmdl/MaumeeNutrient/Maumee-Nutrient-TMDL-062022.pdf">adopted an agreement</a> similar to that for the Chesapeake to reduce phosphorus pollution below a prescribed maximum load from the Maumee River watershed at the western end of Lake Erie, where algal blooms occur most often. To date, Mississippi River basin states and even the EPA have <a href="https://doi.org/10.15779/Z38T727G2Q">opposed similarly mandating maximum pollution loads</a> to reduce the Gulf of Mexico dead zone. </p>
<p>Despite substantial government subsidies to implement various agricultural management practices, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in streams in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195930">Iowa</a> and <a href="https://www2.illinois.gov/epa/topics/water-quality/watershed-management/excess-nutrients/Documents/NLRS-2021-Biennial-Report-FINAL.pdf">Illinois</a> has actually increased over the 1980-1996 baseline of the Gulf agreement. </p>
<p>Even with increasing crop yields and more efficient use of fertilizer, the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the Midwest has overwhelmed any water quality gains. One driver is ethanol production, which has increased <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36892">fortyfold</a> since the Gulf action plan was adopted in 2001. Today, over 40% of corn grown in the U.S. is <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn-and-other-feedgrains/feedgrains-sector-at-a-glance/">used for ethanol</a>, mostly in the Midwest, while most of the rest is used to feed animals. </p>
<p>In all three regions, the growth of large-scale livestock farms – <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22344953/iowa-select-jeff-hansen-pork-farming">hogs in the Midwest</a>, <a href="https://www.delmarvanow.com/story/news/2021/10/29/84-poultry-operations-raised-water-pollution-concerns-yet-few-fined-report-environmental-watchdog/6180639001/">poultry around the Chesapeake Bay</a> – is also contributing to nutrient pollution. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105065">Improper management of animal waste</a> adds to nitrogen and phosphorus loads in soils and local waters. </p>
<p>Studies show that agriculture contributes <a href="http://scavia.seas.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Final-Report-Update-20160415.pdf">85% of Lake Erie’s Maumee River phosphorus load</a>, <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1486/cir1486.pdf">65% of the Chesapeake Bay’s nitrogen load</a> and 73.2% of the nitrogen load and 56% of the phosphorus load to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12905">Gulf of Mexico</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1223304943265648642"}"></div></p>
<h2>Incentives aren’t working</h2>
<p>We believe the evidence is clear that the largely voluntary approaches taken to date, with technical assistance and substantial public financing, are not working. </p>
<p>Economists have called for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13010">fundamental shift in policies controlling agricultural pollution</a>. Instead of offering polluters subsidies to clean up their operations, these experts argue, the strategy should be to pay farmers for performance, based on environmental outcomes that can be measured <a href="https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.12379">or predicted</a> at appropriate scales and specific places. </p>
<p>Under this approach, government would set limits on the amount of nutrients that can be lost to the environment, and farmers would choose how to meet them, based on what kinds of action work best for their specific soils and climate. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03042-5">restoring wetlands</a> within the watershed could help to capture nutrients that unavoidably wash off of farmlands. </p>
<p>The ongoing shift to electric vehicles offers an opportunity to grow far less grain for ethanol, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-biofuel-mandate-helps-farmers-but-does-little-for-energy-security-and-harms-the-environment-168459">doesn’t even help the climate</a>. And in the long run, developing <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-how-much-food-contributes-to-climate-change/">efficient, plant-based food systems</a> would both reduce nutrient pollution and limit climate change. </p>
<p>In June 2022, the Government Accountability Office concluded that federal agencies charged with preventing and controlling harmful algal blooms and dead zones under a <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-105publ383/pdf/PLAW-105publ383.pdf">1998 law</a> have <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-104449.pdf">failed to establish a national program</a> to address these issues. Fifty years after the federal Clean Water Act was enacted, we believe such a program is long overdue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Boesch does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article. He currently receives no external funding, but previously received funding from the National Science Foundation, Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Walton Family Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Scavia does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article. He has received research funding from the National Science Foundation, Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Erb Family Foundation.</span></em></p>Nutrient pollution fouls lakes and bays with algae, killing fish and threatening public health. Progress curbing it has been slow, mainly because of farm pollution.Donald Boesch, Professor of Marine Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceDonald Scavia, Professor Emeritus of Environment and Sustainability, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1328462020-04-10T12:13:54Z2020-04-10T12:13:54ZA decade after the Deepwater Horizon explosion, offshore drilling is still unsafe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322433/original/file-20200323-112661-2ww9x1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C6%2C1404%2C876&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A satellite image of the oil slick as it looked in late May 2010, a month after the Deepwater Horizon well exploded. The oil plume looks grayish white. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCWW5xt3Hc8">NASA/Goddard/Jen Shoemaker and Stu Snodgrass </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten years ago, on April 20, 2010, the BP Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded, killing 11 crew members and starting the <a href="https://darrp.noaa.gov/oil-spills/deepwater-horizon">largest ocean oil spill in history</a>. Over the next three months, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/03/us/03flow.html">between 4 million and 5 million barrels</a> of oil spewed into the Gulf of Mexico. </p>
<p>I was a member of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-OILCOMMISSION/pdf/GPO-OILCOMMISSION.pdf">oil spill commission</a> appointed by President Obama to investigate the causes of the disaster. Later, I served as a courtroom witness for the government on the effects of the spill. While scientists now know more about these effects, risks of deepwater blowouts remain, and the energy industry and government responders still have only very limited ability to control where the oil goes once it’s released from the well.</p>
<p>The spill commission found that <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-OILCOMMISSION">multiple identifiable mistakes caused the blowout</a>. Our report cast doubt over how safety was addressed across the offshore oil industry and the government’s ability to regulate it. </p>
<p>As the oil spill commission’s report showed, drilling ever deeper into the Gulf involved risks for which neither industry nor government was adequately prepared. The industry had felt so sure that a blowout would not happen that it lacked the capacity to contain it. Neither BP nor the government could do much to control or clean up the spill. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323715/original/file-20200327-146712-22cnjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Deepwater Horizon oil rig burning on April 21, 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Gulf-Oil-Spill-Trial/e0feaddb2e604d858535807c0ee1973f/64/0">Gerald Herbert/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Safety improvements are threatened</h2>
<p>The presidential commission recommended numerous reforms to reduce the risks and environmental damages from offshore oil and gas development. The industry developed <a href="https://www.noia.org/offshore-energy/safety/response-containment-systems/">systems to contain blowouts</a> in deep water and has deployed them worldwide. Improvements in operational safety were made within companies and <a href="https://www.centerforoffshoresafety.org/">across the industry</a>. </p>
<p>The Department of the Interior acted quickly to reorganize its units. It created a <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/who-we-are/about-us">Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement</a> to avoid conflicts of interests with its leasing, development and revenue collection responsibilities. After four years in development, the bureau issued <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2016/04/29/2016-08921/oil-and-gas-and-sulfur-operations-in-the-outer-continental-shelf-blowout-preventer-systems-and-well">new well control rules</a> in 2016 governing drilling safety. </p>
<p>But despite progress on a number of fronts, Congress has not enacted legislation to improve safety or even raise energy companies’ ridiculously low liability limits for oil spills – currently just <a href="https://www.boem.gov/newsroom/press-releases/boem-adjusts-limit-liability-oil-spills-offshore-facilities">US$134 million</a> for offshore facilities like the Deepwater Horizon. The Trump administration has <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/bsee-finalizes-improved-blowout-preventer-and-well-control-regulations">reversed or relaxed safety reforms</a>. It has loosened the safe pressure margins allowed in a well, dispensed with independent inspections of blowout protectors and removed requirements for continuous onshore monitoring of offshore drilling. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/esliY9Miej0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ten years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, rules adopted post-spill to make offshore operations safer are being relaxed.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of these changes were <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/484837-political-appointees-urged-rollback-of-deepwater-horizon-inspired">ordered by political appointees</a> over the recommendations of the safety bureau’s technical experts. While the bureau is charged with focusing singularly on <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/who-we-are/about-us">safety and the environment</a>, its director, <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/who-we-are/our-organization/leadership/director">Scott Angelle</a>, has been a <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/05/investing/offshore-oil-drilling-safety-trump-bsee/index.html">prominent proponent</a> of the administration’s aggressive <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-unleashing-american-energy-dominance/">“energy dominance”</a> strategy, ordering expanded oil production and elimination of costly regulations. Imagine the message this sends about priorities to people in government and industry who are responsible for ensuring safety.</p>
<h2>Where contamination lingers</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324759/original/file-20200401-23143-bka6u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This conception of the deep plume shows how oil rose from the well. At a depth of 1 kilometer, bacteria consumed the oil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es2013227">Adapted from Environ. Sci. Technol., DOI: 10.1021/ES2013227</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the deep Gulf of Mexico ecosystem was egregiously understudied in all respects, while a <a href="https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/oil-and-gas-energy-program/Leasing/Five-Year-Program/2019-2024/DPP/NP-Economic-Benefits.pdf">multi-billion-dollar industry</a>.
intruded into it. Now scientists know much more about what happens when large quantities of oil and gas are released in a seafloor blowout. </p>
<p>Scientists learned much about the effects of the spill through monitoring the blowout, assessing damages to natural resources and investigating the fate and effects of escaping oil. More has been spent on these studies and more results published than for any previous oil spill. </p>
<p>A substantial portion of oil released from the mile-deep well was entrained in a plume of droplets spreading out 3,000 feet below the Gulf’s surface. Footprints of contamination and effects extended <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw8863">far beyond the area where oil slicks were observed</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mCWW5xt3Hc8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Two NASA satellites recorded day-by-day images of the Gulf after the blowout, from April 20 through May 24, 2010.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nearly all of the oil released has since degraded. Populations of most affected organisms have recovered. But contamination lingers in sediments in the deep Gulf, and in some marshes and beaches where oil came ashore. Populations of <a href="https://www.gulfspillrestoration.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/wp-content/uploads/Chapter-4_Injury_to_Natural_Resources_508.pdf">long-lived animals the oil killed </a> might not recover for decades. These include sea turtles, bottlenose dolphins, seabirds and <a href="https://theconversation.com/deepwater-corals-thrive-at-the-bottom-of-the-ocean-but-cant-escape-human-impacts-104211">deepwater corals</a>. </p>
<p>And yet, as scientists synthesize results from this <a href="https://gulfresearchinitiative.org/">10-year research initiative</a>, very little practical advice is emerging about what can be done to respond more effectively to future blowouts from ever-deeper drilling in the Gulf. </p>
<p>Surely, we can more rapidly contain blowouts. The effectiveness of injecting chemical dispersants into the plume gushing from the well <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-12963-7_29">remains in debate</a>. How much oil do dispersants keep from reaching the surface, where it threatens those working to stanch the blowout, as well as birds, sea turtles and coastal ecosystems? But the research has not revealed more effective approaches in controlling released oil. </p>
<h2>Safety first is the big lesson</h2>
<p>As I see it, the essential lesson from Deepwater Horizon is that industry and government should be putting their greatest energies into preventing operational accidents, blowouts and releases. Yet the Trump administration emphasizes <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-offshore-oil-drilling-plans-ignore-the-lessons-of-bp-deepwater-horizon-89570">increasing production and reducing regulations</a>. This undermines safety improvements made over the past 10 years. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the price of crude oil – already low because of high fracked oil production in the U.S. – has <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-oil-shock-of-2020-appears-to-be-here-and-the-pain-could-be-wide-and-deep-133293">declined drastically</a> since the beginning of 2020. Saudi and Russian oil had already glutted the market when the coronavirus pandemic reduced oil consumption.</p>
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<p>The federal government’s March 2020 oil and gas lease sale for the Gulf of Mexico yielded the lowest response in four years – <a href="https://www.oedigital.com/news/476766-u-s-offshore-oil-lease-sale-weakest-since-2016">$93 million in high bids</a>, compared to $159 million in the previous round. To prop up the industry and maintain production, the Trump administration is seeking to <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032020-interior-considers-lowering-us-federal-royalty-rates-for-next-gulf-lease-sale-sources">lower royalty rates</a> and store excess production in the <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/491111-oil-giants-meet-at-white-house-amid-talk-of-buying-strategic">Strategic Petroleum Reserve</a>. </p>
<p>But as industry acts to cut its expenditures and downsize staff, will safety costs be a priority? </p>
<p>National energy policy was beyond the charge of the 2010 commission, but 10 years later, it is impossible to consider the future of offshore oil and gas without factoring in the need to <a href="https://www.agu.org/Share-and-Advocate/Share/Policymakers/Position-Statements/Position_Climate">eliminate net greenhouse gas emission within 30 years</a> to limit climate change. Why would the United States consider expanding offshore exploration and drilling that might yield fossil fuels only 20 years from now? </p>
<p>Even in the historically developed Gulf of Mexico, rather than just “drill, baby, drill,” I believe the U.S. should be developing a realistic transition plan for phasing out offshore fossil fuel production. Such a strategy should encompass not only ensuring high standards for safety and industry responsibility for abandoned infrastructure during the drawdown, but also an economic evolution for the region, including opportunities for carbon sequestration and renewable energy production. We need to ensure that there will be a vibrant and productive Gulf long after we cease removing its oil. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Boesch served on the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, a bipartisan presidential commission that operated in 2010-2011. He also served as an expert witness for the U.S. government in its lawsuit against BP for natural resource damages as a result of the spill.</span></em></p>The BP Deepwater Horizon blowout on April 20, 2010 triggered the largest offshore oil spill in history. Ten years later, post-spill reforms are being undone and the Gulf of Mexico remains vulnerable.Donald Boesch, Professor of Marine Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1156182019-06-07T15:36:40Z2019-06-07T15:36:40ZClimate change alters what’s possible in restoring Florida’s Everglades<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278372/original/file-20190606-98033-1tcsm4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sawgrass prairie in Everglades National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/27rwXJq">NPS/G. Gardner</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Everglades are a vast network of subtropical freshwater wetland and estuarine ecosystems that once spanned the length and breadth of south Florida. Fifty years of dredging and diking, starting in 1948, greatly reduced their extent, altering water flow patterns and causing widespread ecological damage. </p>
<p>For the past 20 years, scientists and engineers have been working on a multi-billion-dollar restoration effort designed to reclaim the Everglades’ past glory. I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=NDw9_fgAAAAJ&hl=en">hydrologist</a> and have worked for 25 years in south Florida. Currently I <a href="https://www.umces.edu/ian/projects/Environmental-Restoration-Success-in-Everglades">co-lead a team</a> at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences that worked with federal and state agencies to compile a <a href="https://evergladesecohealth.org/">report card</a> on the ecological health of the Everglades. </p>
<p>The report card revealed that not enough has been done yet to reverse the ecological damage from years of misdirected water management. Although some progress has been made toward restoration’s original goals, growing evidence of unanticipated effects from climate change and sea level rise is forcing experts to reassess what is possible.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Both scientific and political hurdles make ‘rehydrating’ the Everglades one of the most complex ecological restoration projects ever attempted.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rescuing the ‘river of grass’</h2>
<p>Advocates have been working to protect the Everglades nearly as long as developers have been dismantling it. In 1947, author and activist Marjory Stoneman Douglas published her classic book “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781561649907/The-Everglades-River-of-Grass-Third-Edition">The Everglades: River of Grass</a>,” which warned that “The Everglades were dying,” and their loss would doom the entire region. Presciently, Douglas observed that the Everglades recharge the aquifer that supplies water to Miami and other coastal communities, making south Florida’s booming economy possible. </p>
<p>Douglas’ assessment spurred action to preserve this unique ecological resource, although it took decades to organize and fund a restoration effort on the scale that was needed. In the year 2000 federal and state agencies launched the <a href="https://evergladesrestoration.gov/">Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan</a>, which is designed to restore the characteristics of the water cycle in south Florida that were critical to sustaining the historical Everglades. At the same time, water managers also must maintain water supplies and flood protection for farms and communities that have been built in and around the Everglades, with more people arriving every year. </p>
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<h2>Stressed ecosystems</h2>
<p>After nearly two decades of work, the health of the Everglades is only fair, and progress still lies in the future. That’s the conclusion of the <a href="https://evergladesecohealth.org/">Everglades Report Card</a>, which was released in April 2019 after assessing a huge quantity of data collected from 2012 through 2017. Overall, it finds that “the ecosystems of the Everglades are <a href="https://usace.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p16021coll11/id/3830">struggling
to support the plants and animals</a> that live there and the natural services they provide to people.”</p>
<p>Sea level rise is increasingly a factor. About 10 years ago, scientists began seeing unsettling changes in the freshwater wetlands of Everglades National Park at Florida’s southwest tip. Holes were appearing in expansive sawgrass prairies near the coast, filled with dead vegetation and standing water. Experiments confirm that the cause is <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25198/chapter/8#165">saltwater infiltrating the freshwater wetlands</a>.</p>
<p>Sawgrass grows on top of a thick deposit of peat. Too much saltwater can kill the plants and eat away at the peat, causing the soil surface to collapse. As seawater infiltrates vast areas of sawgrass, formerly healthy sawgrass prairie is beginning to unravel like a moth-eaten wool sweater.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278431/original/file-20190606-98054-1pib0kb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Open-water ‘pothole’ ponds in a sawgrass marsh, Everglades National Park, are thought to have been formed through collapsing peat driven by saltwater intrusion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Everglades Foundation/Stephen Davis</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Outpaced by rising seas</h2>
<p>The Everglades have natural defenses against sea level rise. Dense mangrove forests along Florida’s southwest coast form a protective barrier that absorbs storm surge from hurricanes. Mangroves filter out and consolidate mud and sand churned up by hurricanes from the sea bottom, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mangroves-protect-coastlines-store-carbon-and-are-expanding-with-climate-change-81445">building up the coast’s elevation</a> in pace with sea level rise. </p>
<p>Freshwater draining from the interior piles up behind the mangroves, creating a hydraulic barrier that prevents seawater from infiltrating inland. And freshwater wetlands keep up with sea level rise through the accumulation of undecomposed plant material and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/nature/evergeology.htm">marl</a>, a mineral-rich mud produced by algae.</p>
<p>But geological records show that there are limits to how much sea level rise the Everglades can accommodate. The Everglades have existed only for about the last 4,000 years. Over this time seas were near their present level and rising at a relatively leisurely pace of 0.04 inches (1 millimeter) per year or less. </p>
<p>Much earlier, around 10,000 years ago, sea level was about 150 feet lower and rising more quickly as ice sheets covering much of the Northern Hemisphere melted. The sedimentary record shows that extensive areas of coastal wetlands and mangrove forests did not form until <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247456911_Sea-level_control_on_stability_of_Everglades_wetlands">around 7,000 years ago</a>, when sea level rise slowed below a threshold of about 0.4 inches (10 millimeters) per year.</p>
<p>Since the year 2000, sea levels around south Florida have been rising by about <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/25198/chapter/8#163">0.33 inches</a> (7.6 millimeters) yearly – close to the threshold beyond which coastal wetlands are not found in sedimentary records. And this rate is expected to increase as the climate continues to warm. This is why geologists were among the first to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247456911_Sea-level_control_on_stability_of_Everglades_wetlands">raise the alarm</a> about potential impacts of sea level rise, and tend to be pessimistic about the future of the Everglades and south Florida.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278388/original/file-20190606-97994-n6b60j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunny day tidal flooding (shown: downtown Miami, 2016) is one sign of sea level rise in south Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_flooding#/media/File:October_17_2016_sunny_day_tidal_flooding_at_Brickell_Bay_Drive_and_12_Street_downtown_Miami,_4.34_MLLW_high_tide_am.jpg">B137/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Feasible restoration goals</h2>
<p>In an October 2018 report, a special committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine urged agencies directing the Everglades restoration to reevaluate <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25198/progress-toward-restoring-the-everglades-the-seventh-biennial-review-2018">whether the project’s original goals were still achievable</a>, given trends in climate change and sea level rise.</p>
<p>Ecologists studying direct impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades are more optimistic. One restoration objective is increasing the amount of freshwater discharge into the southern estuaries by <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/tamiami-trial-next-steps.htm">installing bridges along the Tamiami Highway</a>, which has blocked water flow to the Everglades for decades. Restoring flow and raising water levels in freshwater wetlands near the coast will improve ecological conditions in the estuaries and reduce seawater infiltration, making freshwater wetlands less vulnerable to peat collapse. </p>
<p>No one believes it will be possible to completely counter the effects of sea level rise. But Everglades restoration projects like this can moderate them, and perhaps allow the ecosystem to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00538-w">transition more gradually</a>. </p>
<p>However, the plans that guide restoration efforts have not changed since they were first made 20 years ago, and do not take into account changes in temperature, rainfall and evaporation that are occurring with climate change. </p>
<p>Originally, it was anticipated that sea level would rise by up to 6 inches (152 millimeters) by 2050, which is equivalent to 0.12 inches per year (3 mm/yr). Now, however, seas are rising at three times this rate, and are expected to accelerate further due to melting of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. <a href="https://evergladesecohealth.org/site/assets/files/1969/2019_system_status_report-1.pdf">New guidelines</a> recently adopted by the Army Corps of Engineers would require planning for up to 26 inches (660 millimeters) of sea level rise in the Everglades by 2050. </p>
<p>In my view, it is time to set aside the goal of restoring the historical Everglades wilderness that Marjory Stoneman Douglas described. The Everglades today are a hybrid ecosystem that encompasses both natural and constructed landscapes. Areas of wilderness will remain, but climate change and sea level rise make it impossible for the Everglades and the rest of south Florida to return to the past. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Nuttle receives funding from the US Army Corps of Engineers, one of the partners in the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program.</span></em></p>Federal and state agencies are carrying out a 35-year, multi-billion-dollar plan to restore Florida’s Everglades, but have not factored sea level rise or other climate change impacts into their plans.William Nuttle, Science Integrator, Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/927162018-03-05T20:15:10Z2018-03-05T20:15:10ZCutting pollution in the Chesapeake Bay has helped underwater grasses rebound<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208924/original/file-20180305-146700-osn6fj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Healthy aquatic vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cassie Gurbisz/University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seagrasses are the “coastal canaries” of oceans and bays. When these underwater flowering plants are sick or dying, it means the ecosystem is in big trouble – typically due to pollution that reduces water quality. But when they are thriving and expanding, it is a sign that the ecosystem is becoming healthier. </p>
<p>We have collaborated on seagrass research for three decades in the Chesapeake Bay and beyond. One of us (Bob “JJ” Orth) has mapped and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bVEVdsEAAAAJ&hl=en">studied</a> the bay’s submerged aquatic vegetation since the 1980s. And the other (Bill Dennison) <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NfbBjykAAAAJ&hl=en">studies</a> seagrass ecophysiology and has led efforts to make this science understandable and useful. </p>
<p>Seagrasses are critical to a healthy Chesapeake Bay. They provide habitat for fish and shellfish, stabilize sediments and help clarify the water. The bay’s grasses declined sharply in the 1970s, as pollution and development degraded its water quality. States around the bay have been working together since 2010 on a sweeping plan to clean it up and restore its ecosystems.</p>
<p>In a new <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1715798115">study</a>, we provide conclusive evidence that reducing discharges of nitrogen, phosphorus and other pollutants into the bay has produced the largest resurgence of underwater grasses ever recorded anywhere. This success shows that coastal ecosystems are resilient and that concerted efforts to reduce nutrient pollution can result in substantial improvements.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=309&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208935/original/file-20180305-146661-ifomwk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trends in acreage and density of submerged aquatic vegetation in the Chesapeake Bay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Melissa Merritt/USEPA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cutting nutrient pollution boosts seagrasses</h2>
<p>Ten years ago we led an effort through the <a href="https://www.nceas.ucsb.edu/">National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis</a> to understand the global trajectories of seagrasses. What we found was that seagrasses were being <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905620106">lost at an alarming rate</a>, equivalent to a soccer field of seagrass every 30 minutes since 1980. </p>
<p>So when we began to observe net increases over the past few years in the abundance of multiple types of seagrasses (collectively known as submerged aquatic vegetation) in our beloved Chesapeake Bay, we knew this event was globally unique.</p>
<p>To discern what was happening, we partnered with the <a href="http://www.chesapeakebay.net/">Chesapeake Bay Program</a> to initiate what is called a synthesis effort. Synthesis science brings together diverse teams of experts from different fields to pull new insights out of existing data.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=867&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=867&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208808/original/file-20180304-65529-eczkeu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=867&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pollution sources throughout the Bay’s watershed affect its water quality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1e/Chesapeake_Bay_Watershed.png">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We had access to 30 years of annual surveys of underwater grasses that JJ Orth personally oversees, plus a 30-year water quality data set collected by the Chesapeake Bay Program. Scientists from the <a href="http://www.vims.edu">Virginia Institute of Marine Science</a>, <a href="https://www.umces.edu">University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science</a>, <a href="https://www.bigelow.org/">Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences</a>, the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/">U.S. Geological Survey</a>, the <a href="https://www.sesync.org/">National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center</a>, <a href="http://www.smcm.edu/">St. Mary’s College of Maryland</a>, the <a href="https://serc.si.edu/">Smithsonian Environmental Research Center</a>, the <a href="http://dnr.maryland.gov/Pages/default.aspx">Maryland Department of Natural Resources</a>, <a href="https://www.tamucc.edu/">Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi</a> and the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/">U.S. Environmental Protection Agency</a> provided analytical firepower to help assess this complex information.</p>
<p>We started by identifying ways in which activities on land could affect trends in water quality and underwater grass abundance. Then we tested our hypothesized linkages using structural equation models that analyzed data in two different ways. </p>
<p>One approach focused on the cascade of nitrogen and phosphorus moving from sources on land, such as wastewater discharge and stormwater runoff, into waterways. The other showed what happened to underwater grasses once these nutrients entered in the water. Nutrients overfertilize the bay, creating huge blooms of algae that die and deplete oxygen from the water. This produces “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix048">dead zones</a>” that cannot support fish or plant life.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=181&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208936/original/file-20180305-146675-1oy2crf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Historic photos show water quality declining and underwater grasses disappearing off Solomons, Maryland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chesapeake Biological Laboratory/University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our analysis, we found conclusive evidence that reductions of excess nitrogen and phosphorus caused the underwater grass recovery in the Chesapeake Bay. Since 1984, the quantity of nitrogen entering the bay has decreased by 23 percent and phosphorus has fallen by 8 percent, thanks to a “<a href="https://www.epa.gov/chesapeake-bay-tmdl">pollution diet</a>” that the EPA <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-sides-with-epa-on-cleaning-chesapeake-bay-and-perhaps-other-waterways-55678">established in 2010</a>. The plan, formally called a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), requires states in the bay’s 64,000-square mile watershed to reduce specific pollutants entering the bay to target levels on a fixed schedule.</p>
<p>As a result, underwater grasses have increased by over 300 percent and have reappeared in some locations around the bay where they had not been observed for decades.</p>
<h2>A healthier Chesapeake Bay</h2>
<p>For the past 12 years, we have been using underwater grasses and other water quality data to produce an annual <a href="https://ecoreportcard.org/report-cards/chesapeake-bay/">Chesapeake Bay report card</a>. Our 2017 report card describes progress across the board, with 7 out of 15 reporting regions around the bay showing significant improvement and the rest holding steady. </p>
<p>We attribute these improvements to the TMDL plan. In particular, <a href="http://ian.umces.edu/pdfs/ian_report_438.pdf">upgrades at area wastewater treatment facilities</a> have reduced nitrogen and phosphorus inputs into the bay. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es4028748">Catalytic converters on automobiles and smokestack scrubbers in power plants</a> have reduced atmospheric nitrogen emissions and subsequent deposition that finds its way into bay waters. It appears that these management actions are beginning to pay off, although there is more to do – especially reducing nutrient pollution from agriculture.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z3-XhBU08xM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Seagrasses in the Chesapeake Bay’s Susquehanna Flats are rebounding.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Progress at risk</h2>
<p>The Chesapeake Bay Program is a partnership between six states (New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia), the District of Columbia and the federal government, represented by the EPA. It heavily leverages federal funding by engaging community groups, local municipalities and nongovernmental organizations to carry out actions that help reduce pollution entering the bay. Examples include re-engineering urban surfaces to reduce stormwater runoff and subsidizing farmers to grow winter cover crops that help retain nutrients on fields. </p>
<p>When EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt was Oklahoma’s attorney general, he joined other states in a lawsuit to block the Chesapeake Bay cleanup, calling it a federal overreach. Now, however, Pruitt has <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-scott-pruitt-20170118-story.html">pledged to support the program</a>, which was upheld by a federal court in <a href="https://www.epa.gov/chesapeake-bay-tmdl/chesapeake-bay-tmdl-court-decisions">2013</a> and sustained on appeal in 2015. </p>
<p>But President Trump’s 2017 budget called for eliminating the Chesapeake Bay Program completely. Congress enacted only small cuts, but Trump’s 2018 budget request cuts the program’s funding by 90 percent – ironically, just when we are finally starting to reverse degradation from past decades. </p>
<p>The Chesapeake Bay is arguably the best-studied estuary on the planet, and the fact that our study connects management actions to a huge resurgence of underwater grasses is a tribute to this rich history. Ongoing efforts to restore the bay have produced lessons about how pollution abatement can lead to ecosystem recovery. </p>
<p>These insights can and should be applied to <a href="https://theconversation.com/nutrient-pollution-voluntary-steps-are-failing-to-shrink-algae-blooms-and-dead-zones-81249">other water bodies affected by nutrient pollution</a>. We hope the story of the Chesapeake Bay’s recovery inspires similar actions in many other places.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Dennison receives funding from the Chesapeake Bay Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert J. Orth receives funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. He serves as a district representative on the Gloucester County, Virginia Board of Supervisors, to which he was elected as an Independent.</span></em></p>An ambitious plan to cut the flow of nutrients into the Chesapeake Bay has produced historic regrowth of underwater seagrasses. These results offer hope for other polluted water bodies.Bill Dennison, Professor of Marine Science and Vice President for Science Applications, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceRobert J. Orth, Professor of Marine Science, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/895702018-01-05T18:14:51Z2018-01-05T18:14:51ZTrump’s offshore oil drilling plans ignore the lessons of BP Deepwater Horizon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200879/original/file-20180105-26172-1fxdpjm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Skimming oil in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon spill, May 29, 2010.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/kk1mGi">NOAA </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump Administration is proposing to <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2017-27309.pdf">ease regulations</a> that were adopted to make offshore oil and gas drilling operations safer after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. This event was the worst oil spill in U.S. history. Eleven workers died in the explosion and sinking of the oil rig, and more than 4 million barrels of oil were released into the Gulf of Mexico. Scientists have estimated that the spill caused <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6335/253">more than US$17 billion in damages</a> to natural resources.</p>
<p>I served on the bipartisan <a href="https://cybercemetery.unt.edu/archive/oilspill/20121210172821/http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/">National Commission</a> that investigated the causes of this epic blowout. We spent six months assessing what went wrong on the Deepwater Horizon and the effectiveness of the spill response, conducting our own investigations and hearing testimony from dozens of expert witnesses.</p>
<p>Our panel concluded that the immediate cause of the blowout was a series of identifiable mistakes by BP, the company drilling the well; Halliburton, which cemented the well; and Transocean, the drill ship operator. We <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-OILCOMMISSION/pdf/GPO-OILCOMMISSION.pdf">wrote</a> that these mistakes revealed “such systematic failures in risk management that they place in doubt the safety culture of the entire industry.” The root causes for these mistakes included regulatory failures.</p>
<p>Now, however, the Trump administration wants to <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/bsee-proposes-revisions-to-production">increase domestic production by “reducing the regulatory burden on industry</a>.” In my view, such a shift will put workers and the environment at risk, and ignores the painful lessons of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. The administration has just proposed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/climate/trump-offshore-drilling.html?_r=0">opening virtually all U.S. waters to offshore drilling</a>, which makes it all the more urgent to assess whether it is prepared to regulate this industry effectively.</p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil spill commissioners Dr. Donald Boesch, center, and Frances Ulmer, former Alaska lieutenant governor, on left, visit the Louisiana Gulf Coast in 2010 to see impacts of the BP spill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald Boesch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Separating regulation and promotion</h2>
<p>During our commission’s review of the BP spill, I visited the Gulf office of the <a href="https://www.boem.gov/OCS-Lands-Act-History/">Minerals Management Service</a> in September 2010. This Interior Department agency was responsible for “expeditious and orderly development of offshore resources,” including protection of human safety and the environment. </p>
<p>The most prominent feature in the windowless conference room was a large chart that showed revenue growth from oil and gas leasing and production in the Gulf of Mexico. It was a point of pride for MMS officials that their agency was the nation’s second-largest generator of revenue, exceeded only by the Internal Revenue Service. </p>
<p>We ultimately concluded that an inherent conflict existed within MMS between pressures to increase production and maximize revenues on one hand, and the agency’s safety and environmental protection functions on the other. In our <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-OILCOMMISSION/pdf/GPO-OILCOMMISSION.pdf">report</a>, we observed that MMS regulations were “inadequate to address the risks of deepwater drilling,” and that the agency had ceded control over many crucial aspects of drilling operations to industry. </p>
<p>In response, we recommended creating a new independent agency with enforcement authority within Interior to oversee all aspects of offshore drilling safety, and the structural and operational integrity of all offshore energy production facilities. Then-Secretary Ken Salazar completed the separation of the <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/who-we-are/history/reorganization">Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement</a> from MMS in October 2011. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/f4i_mN_AWvU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Oil flooding from the ruptured well during the BP spill, June 3, 2010.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Officials at this new agency reviewed multiple investigations and studies of the BP spill and offshore drilling safety issues, including <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23662/beyond-compliance-strengthening-the-safety-culture-of-the-offshore-oil-and-gas-industry">several</a> by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. They also consulted extensively with the industry to develop a revised a <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/site-page/fact-sheet">Safety and Environmental Management System</a> and other regulations. </p>
<p>In April 2016, BSEE issued a new <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/guidance-and-regulations/regulations/well-control-rule">well control rule</a> that required standards for design operation and testing of blowout preventers, real-time monitoring and safe drilling pressure margins. Prior to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the oil industry had effectively <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/04/27/27greenwire-bp-other-oil-companies-opposed-effort-to-stiff-38887.html">blocked adoption of such regulations</a> for years. </p>
<h2>About-face under Trump</h2>
<p>President Trump’s March 28, 2017 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-executive-order-promoting-energy-independence-economic-growth/">executive order</a> instructing agencies to reduce undue burdens on domestic energy production signaled a change of course. The American Petroleum Institute and other industry organizations have lobbied hard to rescind or modify the new offshore drilling regulations, calling them <a href="http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-76/issue-12/regulatory-update/industry-responds-to-final-well-control-rule.html">impractical and burdensome</a>. </p>
<p>In April 2017, Trump’s Interior Secretary, Ryan Zinke, appointed Louisiana politician Scott Angelle to lead BSEE. Unlike his predecessors – two retired Coast Guard admirals – Angelle lacks any experience in maritime safety. In July 2010 as interim Lieutenant Governor, Angelle <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/22/nation/la-na-0722-oil-spill-rally-20100722">organized a rally</a> in Lafayette, Louisiana, against the Obama administration’s moratorium on deepwater drilling operations after the BP spill, leading chants of “Lift the ban!”</p>
<p>Even now, Angelle <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/proposed-changes-to-offshore-drilling-rules-raise-safety-questions-1514750730">asserts</a> there was no evidence of systemic problems in offshore drilling regulation at the time of the spill. This view contradicts not only our commission’s findings, but also reviews by the <a href="http://www.csb.gov/assets/1/19/20160412_Macondo_Full_Exec_Summary.pdf">U.S. Chemical Safety Board</a> and a joint investigation by the <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/sites/bsee.gov/files/reports/blowout-prevention/dwhfinaldoi-volumeii.pdf">U.S. Coast Guard and the Interior Department</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201004/original/file-20180105-26172-ird7g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oiled Kemp’s Ridley turtle captured June 1, 2010, during the BP spill. The turtle was cleaned, provided veterinary care and taken to the Audubon Aquarium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/8amepi">NOAA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fewer inspections and looser oversight</h2>
<p>On December 28, 2017, BSEE formally proposed changes in <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/12/29/2017-27309/oil-and-gas-and-sulphur-operations-on-the-outer-continental-shelf-oil-and-gas-production-safety">production safety systems</a>. As evidenced by multiple references within these proposed rules, they generally rely on standards developed by the American Petroleum Institute rather than government requirements. </p>
<p>One change would eliminate BSEE certification of third-party inspectors for critical equipment, such as blowout preventers. The Chemical Safety Board’s investigation of the BP spill <a href="http://www.csb.gov/macondo-blowout-and-explosion/">found</a> that the Deepwater Horizon’s blowout preventer had not been tested and was miswired. It recommended that BSEE should certify third-party inspectors for such critical equipment. </p>
<p>Another proposal would relax requirements for onshore remote monitoring of drilling. While serving on the presidential commission in 2010, I visited Shell’s operation in New Orleans that remotely monitored the company’s offshore drilling activities. This site operated on a 24-7 basis, ever ready to provide assistance, but not all companies met this standard. BP’s counterpart operation in Houston was used only for daily meetings prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill. Consequently, its drillers offshore urgently struggled to get assistance prior to the blowout via cellphones. </p>
<p>On December 7, 2017 BSEE <a href="http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12212017">ordered the National Academies to stop work</a> on a study that the agency had commissioned on improving its inspection program. This was the most recent in a series of studies, and was to include recommendations on the appropriate role of independent third parties and remote monitoring. </p>
<h2>Minor savings, major risk</h2>
<p>BSEE estimates that its proposals to change production safety rules could save the industry <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/bsee-proposes-revisions-to-production">at least $228 million in compliance costs over 10 years</a>. This is a modest sum considering that <a href="https://www.data.bsee.gov/Production/OCSProduction/Default.aspx">offshore oil production</a> has averaged more than 500 million barrels yearly over the past decade. Even with oil prices around $60 per barrel, this means oil companies are earning more than $30 billion annually. Industry decisions about offshore production are driven by <a href="http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart">fluctuations in the price of crude oil</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/us-oil-production-booms-as-new-year-begins/2017/12/31/de49b50e-ee50-11e7-b3bf-ab90a706e175_story.html?utm_term=.d70c40b3ea7e">booming production of onshore shale oil</a>, not by the costs of safety regulations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200884/original/file-20180105-26169-ivmncf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>BSEE’s projected savings are also trivial compared to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/bps-big-bill-for-the-worlds-largest-oil-spill-now-reaches-616-billion/2016/07/14/7248cdaa-49f0-11e6-acbc-4d4870a079da_story.html?utm_term=.4d19c26c08bb">$60 billion in costs</a> that BP has incurred because of its role in the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Since then explosions, deaths, injuries and leaks in the oil industry have <a href="http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2017/11/federal_safety_agency_coast_gu.html">continued to occur</a> mainly from production facilities. On-the-job fatalities are <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/1696111?redirect=true">higher in oil and gas extraction than any other U.S. industry</a>.</p>
<p>Some aspects of the Trump administration’s proposed regulatory changes might achieve greater effectiveness and efficiency in safety procedures. But it is not at all clear that what Angelle <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/bsee-proposes-revisions-to-production">describes</a> as a “paradigm shift” will maintain “a high bar for safety and environmental sustainability,” as he claims. Instead, it looks more like a shift back to the old days of over-relying on industry practices and preferences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Boesch is affiliated with the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation and the Town Creek Foundation. </span></em></p>A scientist who served on a national commission to review the 2010 BP oil spill explains why Trump administration efforts to loosen offshore drilling regulation pose major risks for minor payoffs.Donald Boesch, Professor of Marine Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/805902017-07-24T02:29:39Z2017-07-24T02:29:39ZHistory shows that stacking federal science advisory committees doesn’t work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179065/original/file-20170720-32541-1qiudaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists provide key input to government agencies on issues such as improving oil spill prevention and response after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Deepwater_Horizon_offshore_drilling_unit_on_fire_2010.jpg">U.S. Coast Guard</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scientists are busy people, but every year thousands donate many hours of their time without payment to advise Congress and federal government agencies. They provide input on all kinds of issues, from <a href="https://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/ScienceBoardtotheFoodandDrugAdministration/UCM564105.pdf">antibiotic resistance</a> to <a href="ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/SAB/sab/Meetings/2016/November_2016_Documents/SAB_Mtg_Pres_Nov2016_EMUWright_10-07-16.pdf">mapping the world’s oceans in three dimensions</a>.</p>
<p>The Trump administration has raised alarms by signaling that it is determined to replace scientific advisers who are not in line with its political philosophy. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt is <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/06/epa-sheds-38-more-science-advisors">replacing most of the members</a> of EPA’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/bosc/about-board-scientific-counselors-bosc">Board of Scientific Counselors</a> and, very likely, its <a href="https://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabpeople.nsf/WebCommittees/BOARD">Science Advisory Board</a>. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke has <a href="https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060054139">suspended the activities of numerous advisory panels</a>, including many scientific committees, pending review of their purpose and composition.</p>
<p>Will Trump Cabinet members really be able to shift the scientific advice on which their agencies rely? And how should scientists respond?</p>
<p>Over the past 35 years I have served on numerous federal scientific advisory panels, including EPA’s Science Advisory Board, and many committees and boards of the <a href="http://www.nationalacademies.org/">National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine</a>. In my view, the history of past purges shows that stacking the deck with like-minded advocates is self-defeating. That’s true whether those advocates come from industry or nongovernmental organizations – and especially if they represent only one political party. </p>
<p>Recommendations from these “friendly” panels will not win broad support from the scientific community, and I predict the committees will quickly lose their credibility, legitimacy and influence. Consequently, policies and regulations based on the panels’ recommendations will be less likely to withstand public or political scrutiny and be more open to legal challenges than if they were based on more balanced input.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5TqfKin_ibw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Deborah Swackhamer, chair of the EPA’s Board of Scientific Counselors, talks with Rachel Maddow about the pressure she received from an EPA official to change her congressional testimony and how the EPA’s outside scientific review board has been ‘decimated.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rules for federal advisory committees</h2>
<p>It is important to have processes for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2013/apr/08/lessons-science-advice">watching the watchers</a> who provide scientific advice. Federal advisory panels operate under laws and rules that are designed to assure their objectivity. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.gsa.gov/portal/content/100916">Federal Advisory Committee Act</a>, committees that advise the president and executive branch agencies must be “fairly balanced in terms of the points of view represented.” Agencies also are supposed to take steps to ensure that committees’ advice will not be “inappropriately influenced by the appointing authority or by any special interest.” </p>
<p>The National Academies, which produce studies for Congress and federal agencies, recognize that scientists are human, so some bias will always exist. Therefore, they seek <a href="http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi/">a balance of perspectives</a> within study committees, and invite scientists from industry and former government service as well as from academia to serve on these panels.</p>
<p>Typically, members must describe their employment and financial interests and reveal any potential biases to the other members at the start of the committee’s work. In my experience, scientists from the private sector brought helpful perspectives when they engaged in objective technical deliberations. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178862/original/file-20170719-19049-ek78kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A group portrait by Albert Herter depicts President Abraham Lincoln signing the charter of the National Academy of Sciences in 1863.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nasonline.org/about-nas/history/archives/nas-incorporators.html">National Academy of Sciences</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Drafting of National Academy reports is a group process that allows committee members to correct unsubstantiated conclusions and recommendations that are based on subjective opinions or self-interest. The reports are <a href="http://www.nationalacademies.org/nasem/na_067075.html">reviewed by external peers</a>, as are reports from many federal advisory committees. </p>
<p>During my service on federal advisory committees, I can scarcely remember a time when the party affiliation of scientists serving came up, even in social conversations. Of course, participants are generally aware of the political implications of their work. However, in my experience they typically participate in objective discussions and report writing in a manner that is not shaped by partisan or political goals. </p>
<p>For example, I participated in a National Academies committee that issued <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12469/progress-toward-restoring-the-everglades-the-second-biennial-review-2008">carefully verified and worded conclusions</a> in 2008 about risks that climate change posed to restoration of the Everglades. Last year <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23672/progress-toward-restoring-the-everglades-the-sixth-biennial-review-2016">the report of this committee</a> provided more specific recommendations for addressing the effects of future water shortages and sea level rise. </p>
<p>The responsible Florida state agency has now <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-pn-everglades-science-fight-20170713-story.html">threatened to stop cooperating with the independent scientific review</a>, accusing the committee of “unscientific meddling.” But members agreed that, despite the political sensitivities regarding climate change, their recommendations were highly pertinent to sustainable restoration. </p>
<h2>When politics interferes</h2>
<p>Sometimes, however, administrations try to stack the deck. In March of 1983 I was one of seven scientists <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/03/27/advisers-to-watt-blackballed-by-gop-committee/dd26ee9b-9535-4864-b56e-723a7213ab51/?utm_term=.07bd55a8aade">rejected by Interior Secretary James Watt</a> for reappointment to a committee that advised the agency on studies related to offshore oil and gas development. I learned that the Republican National Committee had checked our voter registration, and my status as an independent apparently disqualified me. </p>
<p>After Watt’s committee purge became public, the appointment process was stalled and the committee ceased to function. Six months later, Watt was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1983/10/10/us/watt-quits-post-president-accepts-with-reluctance.html?pagewanted=all">forced to resign</a> after his notorious <a href="http://www.upi.com/Archives/1983/09/21/Interior-Secretary-James-Watt-drew-laughs-when-he-told/1131432964800/">statement</a> mocking affirmative action by describing the members of another committee as “a black, a woman, two Jews and a cripple.” </p>
<p>When Watt’s successor at Interior, William P. Clark Jr., discovered the appointments impasse and recognized the credibility problem, he appointed some of the scientists who had been “blacklisted” to a revitalized committee, including me. However, he excluded candidates who had been approved by the Republican National Committee. I was elected chair and served on the committee until 1987. </p>
<p>In 1990 I moved from Louisiana to Maryland, and had little involvement with offshore oil and gas issues until 2010, when I was appointed by President Obama as one of seven members of the <a href="https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13543">National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling</a>. This was a high-level commission charged with investigating the root causes of the disastrous 2010 oil spill and recommending ways to make offshore drilling safer.</p>
<p>Before receiving the appointment, I was subjected to “extreme vetting” that probed my publications, statements to the media, financial interests and even my driving record. My political party registration never came up. To chair the commission, Obama selected former U.S. Senator Bob Graham of Florida, a Democrat, and former EPA Administrator William Reilly, a Republican.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/179068/original/file-20170720-23980-tjku49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fred Bartlit Jr., chief investigator of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, makes a presentation to the panel. Panel members, from left to right: Co-chair William Reilly, Co-chair Bob Graham, Christopher Smith of the Energy Department, Frances Ulmer, and Donald Boesch.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Oil-Spill-Hearing/9aec5761e6744c38afea4a4b719f7959/11/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why scientists should stay engaged</h2>
<p>These past efforts show that filling committees with “friendly” advisers doesn’t really work. Biased conclusions and unsupported recommendations are sure to be called out by the scientific community and thus will have little power in the democratic debate. </p>
<p>Of course, purging scientific advisory committees is just part of what many observers see as a broader <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/opinion/the-trump-administrations-war-on-science.html">war on science</a>. This attack also includes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/09/epa-scott-pruitt-carbon-dioxide-global-warming-climate-change">advocating policies that reject solid scientific consensus</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/climate/scott-pruitt-climate-change-red-team.html?_r=0">proposing “red team” assaults</a> in place of rigorous peer review, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/05/22/trump-budget-seeks-huge-cuts-to-disease-prevention-and-medical-research-departments/?utm_term=.1e1e31b60128">proposing drastic reductions in federal funding</a> for science and medical programs, and the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/trump-budget-cuts-science/519825/">resulting loss of scientific talent</a> in the nation and capacity in federal agencies. These threats have much more serious consequences for American science and the nation.</p>
<p>Facing these threats, scientists should not disengage from providing the nation with objective analysis and recommendations. Rather, we should take the long view and be prepared to seize opportunities to advise, as well as to challenge and dissent when needed. Now more than ever, scientists should take these responsibilities seriously rather than cynically.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donald Boesch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can federal agencies stack advisory panels with friendly members? Some have tried, but a scientist who has advised many administrations says they will produce bad policies that lack broad support.Donald Boesch, Professor of Marine Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.