The current situation in Afghanistan is a dramatic example of the old adage that all foreign policy is merely an extension of domestic politics.
Last week, the British weekly, New Statesman, reported an interview with an alleged senior veteran Taliban leader conducted by respected former UN diplomat now Harvard academic, Michael Semple, during which Taliban spokesman Mawlvi claimed that the insurgents' group was now ready to negotiate an end to hostilities in Afghanistan, realising that complete victory was no longer possible.
The capture of Kabul is now seen as unachievable, he said, and the Taliban would settle for a recognised role in a future Afghan government. If true, this is good news, as it suggests a move forward from the Taliban’s previous refusal to negotiate until all foreign troops had left Afghan soil. However, domestic politics in the United States, within the Taliban, and within the Karzai government at this time make the likelihood of meaningful negotiations in the immediate future remote.
This is not the first time the Taliban have indicated a willingness to talk. In November 2010 and May 2011, Germany mediated brief talks between Taliban and US negotiators somewhere in Germany over the release of five Taliban prisoners being held at Guantanamo in exchange for American army sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, who was captured by the Taliban in June 2009. In January 2010, the Taliban proposed that formal talks be continued in Qatar, where it proposed to open an office. This move, reluctantly agreed to by the US-backed government of President Hamid Karzai, was regarded by some as a precursor to talks to end the now eleven year old war.
On these three occasions, the talks broke down because disagreements within the Obama administration and the US military in the Pentagon led the US to backtrack on its commitments leading the Taliban to suspend the talks, although they have maintained their office in Qatar. And, in June 2012, a Taliban emissary, together with one from the Hezb-e-Islami insurgent group, sat face-to-face with a senior Afghan government official responsible for peace talks in a rare high-level gathering at a peace and reconciliation conference held at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan.
But it is highly unlikely that President Obama, committed to building up a secret US military presence in Africa and pitted against Republican hard-liners, will agree to talk to “terrorists” in the run-up to the US presidential elections in November. The official United States position remains that the insurgents must abandon violence, break their connections to al-Qaeda, and abide by the Afghan constitution before any real peace process can begin in Afghanistan. President Karzai also finds himself between a rock and a hard place. He is afraid to negotiate with the Taliban fearing it would signify defeat, and, in addition, some of his governing allies (members of the so-called Northern Alliance) have threatened to abandon him if he does. Karzai’s problems are further exacerbated by the ongoing tensions — recently labelled a war in the western Pakistan tribal areas by US Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta — between the Pakistani military and the US.
There is still a long way to go. In his interview with Semple, Mawlvi stated that the Taliban will not negotiate with the Karzai government whom they regard merely as a puppet of the US, and whom, in any event, they hold in contempt, and they will not accept the western-style, centralised constitution imposed by the US. They want a Sharia-inspired form of government, although they have promised a more flexible, pragmatic application of Sharia principles.
In addition, the Taliban insurgency itself is divided: by ethnic tensions as well as religious intensity. There is no certainty that the younger mid-level Taliban leaders in the field inside Afghanistan facing daily US drone attacks will obey calls to lay down arms from their so-called older commanders safely ensconced in Pakistan protected by Pakistani military patrons. Older, wiser pragmatic heads appear willing to make concessions on issues relating to education of girls and the status of women, although how far they are willing to go remains unclear. The recently televised shocking sight of Taliban men callously executing a kneeling woman accused of adultery gives the lie to these assurances, and the prospect of the Taliban regaining dominance in any central government remains repugnant to the great majority of Australians.
President Obama claims that the war will be over by 2014 when the US, NATO and allied troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan. But the war will only be over when the Taliban, the American and the Karzai governments reach an agreement. Resolution requires all parties to recognise that victory in any military sense is illusory and cannot be fully realised. After 11 years of martial occupation and continuous bombing, more than 2,800 NATO soldiers as well as an unknown, or untold, number of Afghan civilians killed, and the expenditure of more than one billion dollars (US), the Americans and their allies (including Australia) have given up the pretence that they are building (or can build) a modern democratic state in Afghanistan. Even the goal of completely eliminating al-Qaeda appears to have been abandoned. Australia can help in the process of reaching a settlement between the warring parties through its programme of providing financial assistance to the reconstruction of the country over the long haul.
Perhaps the Taliban, also, are reaching the point where they acknowledge that they cannot achieve all their goals through the force of arms, and will settle for less. If that is the case, let us hope the opportunity to negotiate is not lost. The alternative is the continuation of the entirely foreseeable atrocities of more civilian deaths inflicted upon a population whose primary wish is to free themselves from occupation by foreign troops.
Mat Hardy
Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University
Given that we spent nine years in Iraq and have now ended up with a regime slowly sliding back towards corrupt despotism, why should we be worried about wasting 10 years in Afghanistan and the Taliban coming back to some sort of power?
Gary Murphy
Independent Thinker
What do you think of partition?
Ben Neilson
Marine Engineer / Farmer
We were had a chuckle at work a few nights back when partition came up. We're a pretty multicultural work site. Partition...guaranteed to keep the locals concentrating on beating each other up while leaving everyone else alone . I think that was roughly the concept...or at least the usual result!
Sir Humphrey Applebey's line doesn't spring to mind...bugger.
Jacie Taylor
Small Business Owner
This one from Appleby?:
"It was a good idea to partition countries like India and Cyprus and Palestine and Ireland as a part of their independence. It keeps them busy fighting each other so we don't have to have a policy about them."
Ben Neilson
Marine Engineer / Farmer
That's the one! The perfect foreign policy!
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Mat, I can see that as an opponent of the Iraq war, you must talk up the putative "corrupt despotism" in today's Iraq.
But compared to what? Saddam's murder of up to 500,000 of his own people; an apartheid state where Shia and Kurds were tortured and executed at will?
And you're stuck in a bind (or is it a wedge) aren't you? Because your position requires that you would rather Saddam and the Baath Party were still in power, wreaking havoc with the region and desperate to acquire nuclear and…
Read moreLynne Newington
Lynne Newington is a Friend of The Conversation.
Researcher
I hope the old adage that all foreign policy isn't merely an extension of domestic politics.
America needs to stand against the widespread practice of exploitaion of male children coming to light a couple of years ago.
Not a word from Human Rights Watch or Amnesty International either.
A Ahmed
Student
Taliban (also Taleban) means those who study the book (meaning the Qur'an).
remember the destruction of the 2000 yo Buddhas in afghanistan in 2005?
just add this to the long history of islamic wars on the Kuffars which will continue until we begin to understand what the ideology of the Taliban and learn to to reason with it..
here is a small list of what has been going on and will continue until we learn to understand what exactly is going on here..
In 630, Muhammad led 10,000 Muslim…
Read moreMark Gregory
Senior Lecturer in Electrical and Computer Engineering at RMIT University
Afghanistan has parallels to Vietnam and the US appears to be learning from Vietnam and input from nations such as Australia. Will the implemented change make the outcome uncertain. yes. When the western nations pull out there will be an effort by the Taliban to recover lost ground. Will the Afghanistan forces have the fortitude to survive this period - only time will tell.
The enemy (Taliban and other groups) can go back over the border to Pakistan to rest, reorganize and resupply. The US learnt…
Read moreBruce Moon
Bystander!
Ian
I offer two generalised observations before making a comment.
1/.
After the first 'coalition' invasion of Iraq, the western media was roundly criticised for the way they reported the event. As it transpired, by being embedded with the US military, they reported the event as tools of the US military.
The criticism became amplified when comparison was made between the subject and content of that event was delivered by western reporters versus those by Al Jazeera.
The point here…
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