The Economist has its critics, but it still delivers lots of interesting data. I just found this table (published by EconomistDailyChart) of annual meat consumption per person by country. The data set has plenty of anomalous features, but looks accurate enough for my purposes.
I’ve previously argued that we can feed the world if we make the right choices. More precisely, our current food system produces more per person than is needed for adequate nutrition, and can continue do so in future if the right policy choices are made. The key problem is distribution, not production.
But the meat consumption data leads me to a more surprising conclusion. Using current technology and with no additional diversion of food grain, the world could produce enough meat to give everyone an intake comparable to that of the average person in the Netherlands. (I’ve picked the Dutch because they are supposed to be the tallest people in the world, which implies an adequate diet.)
Here are the numbers we need to start with from the data table. Current average annual world meat consumption is 9.5 kilograms beef, 15 kilograms pork and 12.5 kilograms chicken for a total of 37 kilograms per person per year. The Netherlands average is 70 kilograms.
Each kg of grain-fed beef requires about 8 kilograms of grain, compared to 2 kilograms for chicken, and the trade-off similar when cattle are pastured on land that could be used for grain. So, 5 kilograms of beef could be replaced by 20 kilograms of chicken.
The other main user of grain (apart from human consumption) is ethanol production, which now takes something like 140 million tonnes a year. Fed to chickens, that would produce around 70 million tonnes or 10 kilograms per person per year.
That would give an average of 62 kilograms per person per year, not far below the Dutch average. To fill the remaining gap, I’ll call on the usual suspects: reductions in inefficiency and waste.
The reduction in methane emissions from cattle would almost certainly outweigh any adverse impact from reduced ethanol production. (Numbers on both of these effects vary so wildly that I’m not going to attempt a calculation for now.)
How feasible is all this? The use of food grain for biofuels is discredited as a policy, and even the US Congress has withdrawn some support. The shift towards chicken makes economic sense, and would be accelerated if carbon pricing were applied to agriculture, which might well happen in the next couple of decades. So, world meat production could increase steadily over the next few decades, well ahead of population growth.
That still leaves the crucial problem of distribution. People in some rich countries, notably the US and Australia, consume much more than the Netherlands, and the billion or so poorest people in the world can’t afford enough grain to eat, let alone meat. Until this changes, increasing average meat production isn’t going to solve the problem. Even in a world where everyone had enough, substantial differences would persist. For example, according to the data in the table, meat consumption (I’m not sure if they have a good handle on fish) in Japan is very low by developed country standards, and obviously this reflects preferences and national policies, rather than poverty.
There’s no real answer to this within the current world order, except to wait for poor people to become richer, as they have done in much of South-East Asia and are now doing, in large numbers, in China and India.
But a large part of my reason for doing exercises like this one is to consider the feasibility of a better world, even if it might be considered utopian at present. The ability of the world to feed itself, and to do so with a diet that should satisfy any reasonable person, is an important precondition. Until recently, it has not been met – the total food output of the world has been barely adequate in normal times, and quite inadequate in famine years. But now, as I’ve argued, it’s entirely possible.
A version of this article appeared on John Quiggin’s blog and has been reproduced with permission.
John Troughton
ANU Alumni
Yes these are facts that have not changed in 30 years.
Read more1 yes we can feed the world even if the world were twice as populated
2 we don't because "economically inclusive"is not in our social policies although social inclusivity is pushed by the legal fraternity and the UN where water and food are not regarded as "human rights "
3 ECONOMIC EXCLUSION IS THE PROBLEM
4 start by diverting food for animals in cities to the needy
5 overcome the acceptance of business philanthropy as being acceptable…
Ben Reid
logged in via Facebook
Except that poultry farming has a whole range of problems associated with it, not least the welfare of the birds.
John Quiggin
Professor, School of Economics at University of Queensland
The animal welfare problems associated with raising chickens arise, as far as I can tell from pressure to cut labor costs and space requirements. The estimates I've given would work just as well with free-range chickens.
Des Bellamy
logged in via Facebook
Free range chickens are still gathered up in a hurry, stuffed in crates, dumped on conveyor belts and hung upside down to have their throats cut. Many miss (same old rush against time - time=money) and go straight to the scalding tank still alive.
Besides, free range is just a guideline at this stage, and can mean up to 20,000 birds per hectare. More a marketing term than a real welfare measure.
Des Bellamy
logged in via Facebook
Bit of a logical leap there. Why feed 140 tonnes of grain to chickens each year to produce 70 tonnes of meat and about the same amount of chicken faeces? Why not just eat the grain, and stop torturing the chickens? Now that's economics.
Nattavud Pimpa
Senior Lecturer in International Business at RMIT University
Simply because there is a thing called 'variety'.
Geoff Russell
Computer Programmer, Author
The chickens pay a very high price for this particular "variety". But I guess when bird flu gets that last little mutation and kills a million people, then everybody else will pay also. The virologists have no doubt about "if" these
mutations will happen, just when.
Geoff Russell
Computer Programmer, Author
According to Livestock's Long Shadow, only about 6 percent of beef is factory farmed,
http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/10/09/the-global-food-system-and-climate-change-part-i/
So the basic plan is somewhat flawed and in need of adjustment.
Refreshingly, the notion that diverting food to fuel motor vehicles when people are hungry is a moral outrage is gradually gaining acceptance. So why is it okay to divert food to feed livestock when people are hungry? Drop by a grain store and checkout a…
Read moreDaryl Deal
retired
Hmmm, an interesting conundrum, condemned either way.
Over Fishing:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfishing
Andrew McLachlan
Estimator
The basic principle that 70 kg of meat per annum relates to good health and a target for the world is perhaps flawed.
Given it is well documented that we should eat more vegetables and colorectal cancer is related to a non vegetable high fat diet and more common in developed countries it is recommended to reduce intake of meat while increasing intake of grains, fruits and vegetables.
Surely better then to just eat the grain as Des Bellamy suggested not to mention the lifestyle benefits to all those poor chickens.
Geoff Russell
Computer Programmer, Author
Sorry to be picky Andrew, but colorectal cancer isn't related to low or non-vegetable diet. Plenty of countries have populations eating low levels of fruit and vegetables and very little colorectal cancer. But they don't eat much red meat.
Andrew McLachlan
Estimator
Ooopps my bad.
Should have just said there is a relationship to a diet high in red meat and alcohol plus a number of other factors.
Refering to something like the inuits? maybe others? yes they have a very different diets which have been studied and I am not going to digress into their diet and incidence of colorectal cancer.
There are consistent recommendations from research for higher intakes of vegetables or less processed foods in our western diets.
And these are cross linked to the benefits in the possible reduction of colorectal cancer.
The author was suggesting we can increase production of meat to allow the world's population consume 70 kgs per head per annum.
My point was why is that necessary? when eating less meat and more of something else is beneficial.
Then there are the animal welfare benefits as Des pointed out.
I was commenting on the article, perhaps try to discuss that rather than picking fault.
Patrick Francis
Editor Moffitts Media at Moffitts Farm
John Quiggin's article and many of the responses to it miss a critical point associated with beef production in the two major exporting nations. If beef production in feedlots in the US (in particular) was reduced by 50% and consumers replaced some of the beef protein lost with pig, poultry and pasture finished beef, there would be a significant increase in corn and feed grains for export and food aid. World grain prices which are closely aligned to annual corn and wheat production/use in major exporting…
Read moreGeoff Russell
Computer Programmer, Author
Your argument seems to be that the poor are currently unable to compete with livestock for grains and that this is as it should be and any attempt to interfere with such a beautiful system threatens to end civilisation as we know it. Of course if the poor were less poor and could outbid livestock for grains, then there would be fewer pig, cattle and chicken factories. This would reduce the need for hospitals and both cancer and heart surgeons. This would reduce the sales of BMWs and other luxury vehicles. This would ripple down into a collapse in the manufacturing industry and again, the end of civilisation as we know it.
Seriously, there will be many readjustments required to transform a food system that causes vast amounts of suffering and ill-health into one which doesn't. The pretence that the current system works for any except a priviledged few is just that, a pretence.
Gil Hardwick
Anthropologist
Sorry, John, but your argument is entirely misdirected, constructed on not merely flawed but fundamentally misinformed premises and making invalid comparisons that fail to take old established landscapes, cultures and societies into account.
Frustrating, I know, but quickly, who ever heard of droving 2,500 head of chickens from Queensland down into the Western Districts to finish, or bringing a road train of fish down from the Kimberley?
I accept comparison between, say, Guangdong and The Netherlands…
Read moreJohn Quiggin
Professor, School of Economics at University of Queensland
I'm not sure I follow all of this, but the relevant bit of the post was about beef produced on feedlots or grown on arable land, not rangeland. I think you're replying to someone else here.
Shirley Birney
retiree
Gil Hardwick, perhaps you should not be so selective with your demographics when you suggest that we can observe city slickers growing “ugly, obese and lazy on the junk food they consume, breeding like so many grossly overweight rabbits.”
While your assumption may be true, the Australian Centre for Ag Health and Safety at the U of Sydney advised around 2009 that physical and mental health indicators are substandard within farming communities. A preliminary analysis revealed that 64.3% of farm…
Read moreDaryl Deal
retired
Hmmm, why are we feeding grain to cattle, a ruminant grazing animal, whose primary and secondary digestive system is not designed by nature to subsist on a grain diet only?
And why are factory farm cattle being fed grain, and the answer is, it is the cheapest food money can buy.
To feed, grain only, to all factory farm cattle, one needs to whip an evil witches brew of additional ingredients, such as antibiotics(78% of the worlds annual production of antibiotics is fed as cattle/chicken food…
Read more