Articles on Polling

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42% of media coverage of the 2016 election focused on the horserace. Photobank Gallery/Shutterstock.com

Americans are drowning in a sea of polls

Polls have become an essential component of the news coverage of presidential campaigns. That may affect who voters decide to back on an election day.
President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on Jan. 28 in Wildwood, New Jersey. AP Photo/Mel Evans

Trump supporters have little trust in societal institutions

In a survey, Trump supporters showed the lowest faith in the Supreme Court, the federal government, the media and other pillars of society.
The identity that people choose most often is actually ‘independent’ – not Democratic or Republican. Victor Moussa/Shutterstock.com

Don’t be fooled – most independents are partisans too

The true number of people who do not favor either of the two major political parties in the US has actually remained stable in recent years.
Senator Huey Long at the Capitol in 1935. Everett Historical/Shutterstock.com

The secret origins of presidential polling

The very first scientific horse race poll, which took place 85 years ago, was shrouded in secrecy and may have changed history – even though it was faulty.
Online discussion doesn’t always accurately reflect the real political landscape. Russ Vance/Shutterstock.com

4 reasons why social media election data can misread public opinion

Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate's views.
The most important reason for the Coalition’s victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while Labor leader Bill Shorten was not. Mick Tsikas/AAP

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition’s upset victory

According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.
Better opinions polls are more expensive because pollsters need to spend more effort getting a representative and honest sample of voters. Shutterstock

Here’s how to make opinion polls more representative and honest

You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.

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