### Information

UK United Kingdom

# Dave Smith

1. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

Mark, I don't believe your criticism (that Mark is confusing expected values and probabilities) is correct. If Mark opened the first envelope and was then told by the experimenter that there was…

2. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

Derek, I agree that the language is designed to mislead. But I don't think that this is because the language is ambiguous or incorrect, rather that the listener hears what they expect to hear rather…

3. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

Roy, Like I said, the problem is about maths, not sociology - or biology. Just assume, if you like, that every child born has a 50% chance of being a boy, irrespective of the age and sex of its siblings…

4. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

David, That is a neat problem. I think the flaw in your argument is in assuming that the probabilities remain at 50% even after you open the first envelope, or make an assumption on the unseen value…

5. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

Nope. Well, not to first order, anyway. The problem is about maths, not sociology.

6. ##### Dave Smithcommented on The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

I have heard a closely-related problem, which is equally counter-intuitive. "In the park, you come across a family with two children. If one child is a boy, what is the probability that the other…

7. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Of influenza, flu, potions and key opinion leaders

This must be one of the most confusing "facts about..." articles that I have read on the Conversation. First up, the author tells us that "flu" is not actually short for "influenza"…

8. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on Sticks and stones: which words are banned in sport and why

Your use of the phrase "takes the cake" is gratuitous fattism.

9. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Sticks and stones: which words are banned in sport and why

Fat people certainly do face discrimination in AFL. Where are all the fat players? Deliberately excluded.

10. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on Passwords: how to choose one and why we need them

Sam, Yes, that's make sense. Thanks. So passwords can really only be hacked if (a) the server software is so simplistic that it does not have a timelock on password attempts or (b) the owner of the…

11. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Bike helmets: an emergency doctor's perspective

"Australia is one of the few countries in the world with mandatory helmet laws." But why is this so? Are we really so much smarter and more enlightened than other countries? Or are we missing…

12. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Passwords: how to choose one and why we need them

Philip, This question probably shows my ignorance about computer security, but why can't a dictionary attack be prevented simply by the server software restricting the number of password guesses that…

13. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Serious about emissions? It's time to embrace nuclear

Barry, Why do we need to pick winners? In particular, why do we need to pick YOUR winners? You are as bad as your "environmentalist" strawman, ruling out other low-carbon technologies for…

14. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Your number's up – a case for the usefulness of useless maths

Saying that maths is "fun" seriously undersells it. It is like saying that enjoying great art (Beethoven, Picasso, Coltrane, Tolstoy) is "fun". It is much more than that. It is astonishing…

15. ##### Dave Smithcommented on What would a Chinese currency conversion deal mean for Australia?

James, I can't see how it is possible for the Chinese to peg the RMB against two different traded currencies. Obviously, traders would only trade the currency that was priced most favourably at…

16. ##### Dave Smithcommented on What class war? Searching for Labor values in the Labor party

Unfortunately, we do have class warfare in this country. It was started by the mining and media oligarchs. It is not the old-fashioned capital vs labour, but rather plutocrat vs democrat. The ultra-rich…

17. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Cyprus bank bailout plan: the experts respond

Calling it a tax or levy is misleading. It's really a haircut: ie a scaling back of debt repayment because the debtor has gone bankrupt. If the deposits are not insured, the depositor should consider…

18. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on Another link between CO2 and mass extinctions of species

It appears that Mark thinks that the Greenhouse Effect has something to do with growing plants in greenhouses.

19. ##### Dave Smithcommented on Labor leadership challenge: experts respond

Where are the grown ups? Some Labor Party elder (no, not Simon Crean) needs to bang heads together and stop the kids squabbling. The only (faint) hope for the Labor government is some sort of reconciliation…

20. ##### Dave Smithreplied to a Comment on Counting the hidden costs of energy

Peter Lang, You appear to know about as much about the electricity market as I know about geology.