Derek Koehler

My research investigates the intuitive assessment of uncertainty involved in everyday planning, prediction, and decision making. This research includes the study of how people evaluate evidence (or cues, e.g., a patient's symptoms) when estimating the probability of an uncertain event (or outcome, e.g., the patient's eventual diagnosis), how generating scenarios or explanations influences the perceived likelihood of future events, and how current intentions influence self-predictions of future behaviour.

In the course of this research, my collaborators and I have asked basketball fans to predict the outcomes of upcoming National Basketball Association (NBA) games, physicians to judge the probability that a patient is suffering from a particular illness, homeowners to predict when they will complete a household project, and students to estimate the probability that they will donate blood at an upcoming donation clinic. Much of my recent research is located at the intersection of psychology and economics, in a field sometimes called behavioral economics.