Rinehart’s tilt at power is bad news for public debate

There are numerous indications that mining magnate Gina Rinehart seeks to take control of the Fairfax media group. What are the likely implications of that move, and how would it affect Australian society and democratic discourse? I focus on two aspects of this potential development: the impact that…

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Gina Rinehart’s involvement in Fairfax is unlikely to alleviate an already polarised and fragmented media discourse in Australia. AAP

There are numerous indications that mining magnate Gina Rinehart seeks to take control of the Fairfax media group. What are the likely implications of that move, and how would it affect Australian society and democratic discourse? I focus on two aspects of this potential development: the impact that different media outlets have on their audiences; and the likely consequences of an increasingly fragmented media landscape on societal discourse.

Concerning the first issue, there is ample evidence that bad media can do considerable harm.

Professor Stephen Kull and colleagues at the University of Maryland have been keeping track of key beliefs among the American public for many years, and their data are as revealing as they are concerning: long after the search for “Weapons of Mass Destruction” (WMD) proved futile after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, large segments of the U.S. public continued to believe in their existence.

Similarly, in 2010, nearly 45% of the American public erroneously believed that scientists are evenly divided on whether or not climate change is occurring — when in fact an overwhelming majority of experts supports the consensus view, endorsed by virtually all scientific organisations around the world: that the Earth is warming due to human activities.

Even more revealing is that the extent of such mistaken beliefs varies dramatically with Americans’ preferred news source. Consumers of Murdoch-owned Fox News were most likely to be misinformed on a range of issues, whereas those who primarily listened to National Public Radio (roughly comparable to our ABC) were most likely to be attuned to reality. Of course, this pattern may arise because people who are already ill-informed or less educated are more likely to tune into Fox, whereas people who are better informed or educated prefer to listen to National Public Radio. In other words, Fox may be a victim of its audience, rather than the other way around.

Although this possibility cannot be ruled out, it is rendered less likely by a further aspect of the data: the extent to which Fox-consumers were misinformed increased with how much they watched their preferred channel. Those who watched Fox daily had a particularly tenuous hold on reality, whereas those who watched Fox “rarely” or “only once a week” escaped relatively unscathed and resembled occasional listeners of public radio. Increased consumption of National Public Radio, by contrast, increased the accuracy of people’s perceptions, and daily listeners of National Public Radio were generally the best-informed people across a number of studies spanning nearly a decade.

What does Fox News have to do with Gina Rinehart?

We don’t know yet, but the data of Professor Kull and colleagues should alert us to the fact that when a media organ pursues an agenda in preference to reporting accurately, the consequences for society can be dire. And given that we already have several agenda-pursuing propagandistic organs in Australia whose disregard for accuracy is legendary, the spectre of a mining magnate taking control of the major competition must be reason for concern, even if the exact consequences of that move cannot yet be anticipated.

This concern must be balanced against the views of some commentators that “new media”, such as internet blogs, will compensate for the demise of conventional media. On this more optimistic view, it doesn’t matter who owns Fairfax and it doesn’t matter what Rupert Murdoch does because few people read their newspapers anyhow. Instead, the internet provides a smorgasbord of alternative information that permits readers to remain accurately informed.

There are indications that this optimism would be misplaced.

This brings us to the second issue: the consequences of fractionation of the media landscape.

One of the reasons Gina Rinehart’s moves on Fairfax have met little resistance is that the conventional business model of the print media is under great duress. It is precisely those alternative outlets on the internet and the multitude of offerings on cable TV that have curtailed the opportunities for large print-only media corporations.

There is every reason for this trend to continue because the fractionation of media audiences are in the interests of advertisers. For example, purveyors of adult incontinence products do not want to shell out gazillions to advertise to a broad audience on national TV — they much prefer to pay less for ads that air on a smaller network whose audience, however tiny, has exactly the right demographics. Those commercial pressures will likely result in a continued fractionation of media offerings into cyber- or cable-ghettos that satisfy the needs of one — and only one — demographic segment of the population. (It must be noted that this is a future scenario on which there is some agreement, although there is considerable debate about the current extent of audience fragmentation. But the trend seems clear.)

It is possible, therefore, that the large print-oriented Fairfax will be broken into smaller components, and there has been speculation that this break-up is one of Rinehart’s intentions.

So, what of it? And why would any of this matter?

There is evidence that fragmentation matters a great deal because it leads to increasing polarisation of public discourse and “epistemic bubbles”; that is, isolated communities in which facts are shaped to suit the beholders ideological needs. People tend to visit internet sites (especially blogs) that conform to their own views. In consequence, it becomes advantageous for politicians to make extreme statements.

Research by Professor Ed Glaeser and colleagues has shown that if politicians can preferentially address their own supporters, they are more likely to make extreme statements. This extremism becomes worthwhile only if a politician’s extremism attracts more supporters than are repelled on the opposing side. Thus, audience fragmentation is a necessary prerequisite for extremism because if a politician’s statements were processed by a broad national audience, then there is a strong incentive to pursue the “median” voter rather than make extreme statements.

We are therefore facing a pernicious chain of consequences. Modern technology has enabled the creation of a multitude of information channels; commercial pressures are likely to facilitate the creation of isolated “cyber-ghettos”; and, as a result, society is likely to become more polarised and politicians more extreme.

Those trends cannot be healthy for democratic discourse and the well-being of civil society. Opposing those trends is a difficult challenge, and that challenge is unlikely to be aided by an increased involvement of Gina Rinehart in the Australian media.

Join the conversation

38 Comments sorted by

  1. Marc Hendrickx

    Geologist

    Don't worry Stephen, you'll still be able to get your climate groupthink free at the ABC.
    (now just where did they put that Gergis update?)

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    1. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      It's like a broken record isn't it? Climate change is only briefly mentioned in passing, yet Marc Hendrickx is there with his denialism.
      Tell us Marc, do you have an email alert that tells you whenever the words 'climate' and 'change' are mentioned together on this site, so that you can jump in and give us all the benefits of your ideologically based opinion?
      I have a suggestion for you Marc, given that you don't like the sort of group-think that occurs from people who base their opinions on evidence - subscribe to the Australian. I am sure your comments will be welcome there, and you will feel right at home.

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  2. James Jenkin

    EFL Teacher Trainer

    In 24 hours the Conversation has had three articles (Lewandowsky, Fraser and Jaspan) warning of the dangers of Rinehart's influence on Fairfax.

    Bias in the media is important. But whenever we talk about print media we seem to get caught up on the issue.

    One issue we haven't considered is that people choose a newspaper because it's well written. The writing is informed, exciting, provocative.

    I've given up on The Age because a lot of the opinion writing is dull, parochial, and predictable. Show us the heading of an article by one of their long-standing feature writers, and you can guess exactly what it's going to say.

    This is nothing to do with The Age's political position - which I often agree with.

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  3. Dirk Baltzly

    A/Prof. in Philosophy

    The US has had the phenomenon of the 'epistemic bubble' for a longer time than we have and there is some evidence to suggest that the consequences are dire. Recent work by the Pew Research Center shows that the American public are more polarised on all kinds of issues than ever.
    http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/04/partisan-polarization-surges-in-bush-obama-years/
    Correlation is not proof of causation, but the hypothesis seems likely to me.

    We should worry when wide-circulation papers that provide reasonably good, middle-of-the-road journalism fall prey to robber barons or simply fall over as a result of problems with the traditional financial models for newspapers.

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  4. Dennis Alexander

    logged in via LinkedIn

    While I would agree with much of the article, it, like the US research, leaves out commercial radio. Commercial radio plays in many workplaces, taxis and shops. It includes the likes of Alan Jones and other people who don't have their 'facts' checked.

    As a cognitive scientist, Stephan might consider writing a piece on the impact of that part of the media as well: in particular, how it being "in the background" and below the threshold of awareness might affect its influence.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Gil Hardwick

      Yeah you're probably right Gil... most people won't even know its going on actually and care even less. Most people probably know very little and care about nothing much at all.

      But I think it is at least interesting that a mining exec was concerned enough by Monckton's ratbaggery to snap a video and release it ... Monckton is totally unknown in England, other than as a rather eccentric defrocked lord. Certainly his opinions on climate change are never sought or seen. But for some reason his…

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    2. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Gil Hardwick

      I agree Gil

      In Victoria readership of Herald Sun 75%; The Age 25%.
      In Victoria the last Federal Election 2PP ALP 52%; LNP 48%

      No correlation at all.
      Therefore lots of ALP voters reading the Herald Sun are obviously not being influenced by Murdoch at all.

      Chill out Peter, you are starting to sound like a climate denier spreading doom about the impact of the carbon tax!

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    3. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      No Ken,

      I actually welcome Gina planting a few million dollars onto a scratched nag like Fairfax ... I like to have ratbag ideas out where I can see them rather than slinking about in parliaments and the Melbourne Club. And I have the utmost faith in the common sense of Australians to regard her venture into public opinion shaping with the scorn and mirth it deserves. Ratbags on parade.

      Plus I'm genuinely looking forward to the SMH/Age resuming their commitment to contemporary Australian verse. Does anyone have some useful rhymes for "special export zones"?

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    4. David Tuck

      Scientist

      In reply to Gil Hardwick

      If people are not interested in this sort of stuff then it is up to forums like the conversation to make them interested, isn't that the job of educational institutions? This is first year sociology content, I mean come on, everyone knows that media influences culture (probably with the exception of Marc, I doubt that he could tie his own shoe laces).
      Culture can be explained simply as series of ideas that act as a map, or guide, for the way in which people live their lives. There are many factors…

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  5. Ronson Dalby

    logged in via Twitter

    The future of news reporting and commentary in media controlled by Murdoch, Rinehart and the ABC/SBS under an Abbott coalition is a major concern for me (and for Australian democracy).

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  6. Michael Brown

    Professional, academic, company director

    In Melbourne the Age sells most in the upper income professional and business areas, and the election results by seat show that those areas predominately vote Liberal. The Herald Sun sells best in the less affluent areas which tend to vote Labor. Same in Sydney with the SMH and Telegraph.
    This means that voters take little notice of political coverage in newpapers.
    Who owns Fairfax is monumentally irrelevant, regardless of what activist academics think.

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    1. Ronson Dalby

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Michael Brown

      You're demographics for readership may or may not have been the case once but from personal experience with Liberal-voting and/or right-leaning relatives and friends in NSW the Daily Telegraph is the newspaper of choice.

      And it seems that many of my 'friends' on Facebook and Twitter fit into that as well.

      I think the Telegraph, Herald-Sun, The Australian and other Murdoch publications reflect and confirm their view of politics and the world.

      Again on my experience, SMH/Age appeals to left-leaning readers of all classes not because the papers could be classed as left-wing but more that all the alternatives are little more than organs of the Liberal Party and, often, the ultra-right.

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    2. Dirk Baltzly

      A/Prof. in Philosophy

      In reply to Michael Brown

      This seems to me to underestimate the ways in which the content of newspapers can be politically relevant. The content of the Herald Sun can be relevant even if it doesn't change anyone's voting behavior. Politicians respond to what the suppose their constituents think. In addition to polls, they also gauge the content of voters' minds by what they suppose they'll be reading in their morning papers. (This is not unreasonable. The adage 'if it bleeds, it leads' explains why people regularly think…

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    3. Dennis Alexander

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Michael Brown

      Michael,
      Your assertion "This means that voters take little notice of political coverage in newpapers[sic]." is probably wrong.

      The now predominantly right-leaning Sun-Herald and Daily Telegraph were once working-class oriented tabloids. But it is their racing and football coverage (with a dose of nostalgia - it's what dad read) that attracts working class readership now. That this is the case, along with the long observed xenophobia of the Australian working classes, could account for the shift to the right in working class people under Howard and their buying into Abbott's simplistic sloganeering and Alan Jones's "Juliar" campaign.

      So, the demographics might plausibly work in the opposite direction to the one you implied.

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    4. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Dennis Alexander

      So the chattering classes are too stupid to think for themselves.
      To quote David Ogilvy "The consumer is not an idiot, she is your wife"
      Sounds elitist and arrogant Dennis

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  7. Anthony Nolan

    Ruminant

    Valid concern about epistemic bubbles generating incommensurable world views underpins the longer term consequences for democracy, policy formation and civil society. This presents strong grounds for further and much broader state funding of flagship media outlets.

    Vigorous democracy requires outlets for the dissemination of competing arguments; we know, in light of Monckton's leaked plans for Fox news like propaganda outlets for Australia, that Rhinehart will not agree to a plurality of voices within what remains of Fairfax. The rise of the oligarchs in Australia, like elsewhere, represents the rise of anti-democratic forces. Opposition to oligarchy is not a "left" project; it is much more important than that. It is a democratic project.

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  8. Sam Chafe

    Retired scientist

    I am always amused with the claim that The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald always give a fair and balanced view of the news, and that the potential influence of Gina Rinehart would destroy this 'objectivity'. This, of course, is the view of the left of politics, Labor and especially The Greens, who applaud the political slant those papers provide, that is, general support of environmental and left wing concerns. At the same time, they abhor the political slant of The Australian, which leans to the right. I am all for objectivity in news coverage, and think that the influence of Ms Rinehart might just get The Age and the SMH back to a neutral political position.

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    1. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      It would greatly help if you could provide a clarification of what you mean by "left". And what do you mean that the environment is a "left" issue? How? What other "left" issues does the SMH champion? Examples, please.

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    2. Sam Chafe

      Retired scientist

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      I am surprised that you don't know the meaning of the left and right of politics, Mr. Nolan. They have been around for a very long while and I would have thought that a man of your erudition would have readily grasped the concept. The simplest example I think of is that The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald generally give more favourable treatment in their stories, opinion pieces and editorials to Labor and Labor policies, of which I am sure you must be familiar. I did not say that the environment…

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    3. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      Yes Sam. I have my own view of what is "left". Me, I'm post left and concerned to put dialogue within the general framework of pro- or anti- democracy rather than remain captive of the class war rhetoric of the twentieth century.

      As to nominating the SMH preferential treatment of Labour policies as evidence of a left bias on the SMH - you have to be joking! Labour? Left? You've heard of Mark Arbib, Eddie Obeid, Tripodi, Roozendhal and McDonald, haven't you? By what stretch of hallucinatory imagination do you call these reptiles of Sussex St left?

      If you think these characters are of the left then you are so far to the right that you make The Great Khan look like a hippie. In fact, I reckon you're not even of the right but are an ideologue for oligarchy and Putinism.

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    4. Dave Satterthwaite

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      Did you really just play the anti-semite card? Would you like me to up the ante by ascribing fascist qualities to the Right of Australian politics? And pro-Islam? I don't think resisting the demonisation of minorities by power elites really makes you 'pro' those minorities as opposed to making you 'anti' scumbag.

      However, I am fascinated by assertions that the right wing want to 'manage increased global warming without resorting to the proscriptive policies of the Greens and Labor.'

      That would be by digging holes, right?

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    5. Sam Chafe

      Retired scientist

      In reply to Dave Satterthwaite

      Your resort to personal insults is unedifying and I do not intend to reply in kind. With respect to support for Islam and my anti-Semitic claims, I would refer you to the NSW branch of the Greens. And yes, I think there will be the digging of more holes.

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    6. Sam Chafe

      Retired scientist

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      I am puzzled why the resort to personal abuse is so prevalent in these discussions but, as I explained to Mr. Satterthwaite, I am not going to resort in kind. I am aware that NSW Labor is, within the Labor party, right wing, but I was referring to Labor overall which, overall, is left wing. Perhaps not as left wing as the Greens but certainly well to the left of the coalition. I have no comment on 'post left'.

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    7. Dave Satterthwaite

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      Sam, show me where I personally insulted you. I think your outrage settings need adjusting, a not uncommon result of taking on board too much right wing media hysteria.

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    8. Dave Satterthwaite

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      In other words you cannot answer the question or support your baseless assertion. If you are going to try for the moral high ground, one would think as a retired scientist you would know to try and back your efforts with facts, not implied falsehoods.

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    9. David Tuck

      Scientist

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      That's so true of people of people on the right, they're always trying to tell you what left politics is, and then telling you that that's your opinion even when what you actually believe is probably something completely different. Here's something to think about though, if the left is considered to be socialism, does that mean that the right is anti-socialism? What a noble thing to be standing up for.

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    10. David Tuck

      Scientist

      In reply to Sam Chafe

      What an interesting idea that the green party are pro islam and anti semetic, what do you base that on? I always viewed their policies as being based on science and the preservation of the natural world myself.

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  9. Richard Ure

    logged in via Facebook

    “On this more optimistic view, it doesn’t matter who owns Fairfax and it doesn’t matter what Rupert Murdoch does because few people read their newspapers anyhow.” And some many(?) who do read those papers have learnt to read between the lines and can tend to see their own (often contrary) views reinforced. E.g., if the Oz is saying X, my belief in non-X is confirmed.

    “There are indications that this optimism would be misplaced.” Is there evidence for these “indications”? I have followed the NBN debate closely for months and can see the audience being increasingly better informed over time. The nay-sayers are falling by the wayside. I am sure their views have not changed, but their ability to peddle their ill informed nonsense and confusing others is waning.

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  10. Gil Hardwick

    Anthropologist

    Journalists are bad news for public debate, and always have been.

    What the heck difference Gina Rinehart is likely to make is quite beyond me, unless of course she is on track for redress finally over media treatment of her late father and her Philippina step-mother, and I wouldn't blame her for that either.

    All this is chickens coming home to roost.

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  11. Dave Satterthwaite

    logged in via Facebook

    Great article as usual. However this key statement bears examination:

    'People tend to visit internet sites (especially blogs) that conform to their own views.'

    I'd say it's not so much that non-conservative individuals will be *converted*, so much as that the more extreme conservatives will just have more fodder for their insanity.

    What I feel the crux of the matter revolves around is the willingness and ability of non-extremist media sources to step in and collect up the ex-Fairfax readers…

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  12. Marc Hendrickx

    Geologist

    Just checking with the editors. Is use of the word "dumbfuck" now an accepted part discourse on this site? See comments above.
    If so I'd like to suggest it aptly describes the author of that comment.

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