The carbon tax: markets won’t deliver necessary emission cuts

Australia will introduce a carbon tax on Sunday at A$23 per tonne of carbon. In 2015, an emissions trading scheme (ETS) will replace the tax. The aim is to cut Australian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020, and by a further 80% by 2050. Australia’s CO₂ emissions are among…

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We’re banking on business as usual to solve our environmental problems, but we’re likely to be disappointed. Tony.../Flickr

Australia will introduce a carbon tax on Sunday at A$23 per tonne of carbon. In 2015, an emissions trading scheme (ETS) will replace the tax.

The aim is to cut Australian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020, and by a further 80% by 2050. Australia’s CO₂ emissions are among the world’s highest on a per capita basis.

The tax and later, the ETS, are meant to cut emissions by improving energy efficiency and encouraging the shift to non-carbon energy sources. Overall costs of reducing carbon emissions would be minimised by allowing trade in permits.

But, looking ahead, can the ETS and reliance on the market generally, deliver the huge reductions needed? I don’t believe they can. Excessive reliance on the market helped bring about our current predicament.

Energy efficiency – of household appliances, buildings, power stations, aircraft – has greatly improved in recent decades. But in a growth economy, global (and Australian) energy use and GHG emissions have also risen. National per capita differences in car ownership, air travel and electricity use vary 1000-fold in our unequal world. Any efficiency gains will inevitably be swamped by rising energy usage.

We like to believe that technology can solve the problems we face without the need for serious social change. But we’ve made no progress in reducing CO₂ emissions since the first IPCC report more than two decades ago.

Fossil fuels' share in global electricity production is now much higher than it was in 1995. In Australia it rose from 90.5% in 1995 to 92.4% in 2011. We’re re-carbonising, not de-carbonising.

New energy sources won’t be enough: every method of generation has an environmental cost. david_pointing/Flickr

No energy systems are perfectly green. All—fossil fuels, nuclear, and the various renewable energy sources—cause serious environmental problems.

Hydro’s negative environmental impacts are best-known simply because it’s the oldest and largest renewable electricity source. We now know that GHG emissions from hydro dams in the tropics – where most remaining hydro potential lies – can be substantial.

Wind power is already meeting significant citizen and environmental opposition worldwide. Yet it must be scaled up a 100-fold to help meet future business-as-usual energy demands. Solar energy will need a 1000-fold expansion. Further, ongoing climate and other environmental changes could reduce the future potential for most renewable energy sources.

Market economies are driven by the search for profits, not the search for ways of living sustainably. The risk is that many organisations will simply find ways of turning a profit from an ETS without necessarily reducing emissions. Experience with existing schemes provides plenty of examples of such behaviour.

In the words of one researcher: “Many firms have quickly learned to game the climate trading system and started emitting greenhouse gases just so they can make money offsetting them. Carbon markets have substantial transaction costs that transfer wealth to brokers and agents, and evaluators often lack the capacity to distinguish legitimate from illegitimate projects.”

Nor can we take the energy and carbon reductions achieved by some European countries as a precedent. For example, the UK has reduced its carbon emissions 30% below what they were in 1973.

But these reductions largely result from both a shift from coal to gas and displacement of energy-intensive manufacturing to Asia. They can’t be a template for the rest of us.

Over the past three decades, global energy use (and CO₂ emissions) have risen in lockstep with global GDP. Sooner or later we’ll have to make a choice between sustainable living and economic growth—assuming that’s still an option.

Climate change isn’t our only worry. Our consumption behaviour is pushing all kinds of planetary boundaries. Sherwin Huang

Climate change is not our only worry. A prominent group of environmental scientists have listed nine “planetary boundaries” or limits that we must avoid for ecological sustainability. They argued that we have already crossed three of these limits, including safe levels of atmospheric CO₂, and are closing in on the others, with the sole exception of ozone-destroying CFCs.

What to do? In the years up to 2050, global climate change will likely have to share centre-stage with several other serious environmental/resource problems: biodiversity loss, water and food shortages, oil and phosphorus depletion. The more we rely on market-driven tech fixes, the more likely it is that the proposed solution to one problem will worsen one or more others.

Most of us would agree with the aim of meeting the human needs of all the world’s people in an ecologically sustainable manner. To achieve this, I think we need to turn our backs on global economic growth, so as to reduce the heavy and still-growing human impact on the biosphere.

Specifically, we Australians and others from wealthy countries will have to reduce our consumption to levels that could be sustainably adopted by all Earth’s people, as in the “shrink and share” proposal. It could very well mean a steep decline in cherished practices like air and even car travel, perhaps even serious shopping. But if it is the best way to maintain a planet we can still live on, surely it’s worth it?

Comments welcome below.

Join the conversation

118 Comments sorted by

  1. James Sexton

    Network administrator

    Well, if you're one of those which still believe that GHGs are coming to get us, then there's nothing you can do. Not as a country. And, nothing will be done globally, as Rio+20 just demonstrated.

    But, even before Rio+20, it had already been demonstrated that we're not going to "de-carbonise" anyway. Not even if the world collectively wanted to.

    The reason for this is has been the nonsensical preoccupation with non-workable solutions. For instance, it has been calculated that in order…

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    1. Michael Pulsford

      Lecturer, RMIT School Of Art

      In reply to James Sexton

      Excuse my ignorance James, but what's a 'warmist'? I don't know this word and it's not in my dictionary.

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    2. Stephen Prowse

      CEO at Wound CRC

      In reply to James Sexton

      There is something that can be done so we do not leave our grandchildren and our great grandchildren with a bitter legacy. We can look at the social, political and cultural change needed to face up to the reality that continued and indefinite growth is not possible without dire social and environmental implications. The unknown is where is the tipping point, Some would say we have already passed it. The sooner we face up to this and develop new sustainable economic models we can move towards leaving a not so bitter legacy.

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    3. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Michael Pulsford

      Michael, Apologies for the employment of a common idiom. A warmist---- one who believes the earth is precipitously warming to a catastrophic end.

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    4. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Stephen Prowse

      Well, without examining the merits of such a posit, what I was stating is that a viable solution must be found prior to making such posits.

      Consider what has happened. As the author rightly points out, the alarm of our impending doom has been 'shouted for the mountaintops' for well over 20 years. But, what accompanied the prognostication of doom was our supposed salvation. Renewable energy!

      And, that's where much of the difficulty comes into play. Many people, including myself stated…

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    5. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      Wrong.

      A warmest is the person standing closest to the fire.
      A warmist is a person standing in the fire.

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  2. Alan John Hunter

    Retired

    What you are proposing is the destruction of the capitalist system as it stands today, as one of its pillars is continuous never ending growth.
    Big business and their savants i.e. conservative politicians will never acquiesce to this happening, so down the gurgler we go as nature takes its course, resulting in massive breakdowns of the natural systems that sustain us.
    Just 2 articles on groundwater depletion, these are just two of the multitude of problems that are not being addressed, and won't be till it is too late i.e. the 30's dustbowl in the USA. Don't say that was 80 years ago, as there is no proof that we apply anything we have learned in the past to the present or the future i.e. fracking.

    http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/05/29/groundwater-depletion-threatens-food-security-in-california-and-texas/

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7258/abs/nature08238.html

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  3. Ron Chinchen

    Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)

    Probably right in some ways James. We're about to get a disbelieving Prime Minister in Tony Abbot, who will probably ensure that any progress Australia has been attempting to make, will be lost.

    Sad thing in all this is despite your comments, we may have one chance in this and only one. If the problems we will be causing our environment and the vast majority of the scientific community are correct, then our failure to do something now will result in a dire world for our descendents.

    Seems…

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  4. Dave Smith

    Energy Consultant

    Patrick says,

    "But, looking ahead, can the ETS and reliance on the market generally, deliver the huge reductions needed? I don’t believe they can. Excessive reliance on the market helped bring about our current predicament."

    Impeccable logic! On that basis, if I use my car to drive into the city, it won't be any good for driving me out again because, after all, "excessive" reliance on my car helped bring about my "current predicament."

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  5. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

    Contrarian / Epistemologist

    Pointless article. Surely something more considered could be put out? What is the author's expertise? Reads like the ramblimgs of one that resents the failure of the Leftsit project. In summary, Dr Moriarty's 'solution' is vacuous criticism of an initiative that has yet started, his golden alternative is we all live like North Koreans. Delusional. The carbon tax may just help change behaviours and price in housing design, heat / calling solutions and energy generation that reduce carbon emissions. It's a start. Give it a chance? And perhaps try a sabbatical in North Korea and trial your low consumption future, but please report back.

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    1. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      If you take North Korea as one end of an extreme and the other end as the USA, I think that you will find that neither are working, both 3rd world and neither admitting it.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      That's very good Alan ... I might pinch that. And I will start looking for further similarities between these apparently polar opposites.

      Must admit North Korea is pretty weird though... all that labor intensive plasma TV with people and bits of cardboard... seems a rather hard way to go about it.

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    3. Don Aitkin

      writer, speaker and teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I agree that this is a pointless article. Its message, shorn of the angry frustration, is: let's give up, and let destruction happen. I'm more optimistic, and think that we will overcome some of those problems in time. And the fiery furnace projection of AGW is quite unlikely, in my judgment. So I'll go about my life without too much gloom and doom, unworried that my children and grandchildren will think that I have left them a 'bitter legacy'.

      Did any of my generation, incidentally, think that our parents and grandparents had left us a bitter legacy as we moved through the possibilities of nuclear holocaust, overpopulation, silent springs and war? Where did all this apocalyptic stuff come from?

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    4. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Aw heck Don... I didn't get that from it at all... not some defeatist manifesto ... another set of spectres wandering about at all.

      Just that notions of markets and giant energy companies saving us - that we can consume our way to sustainability - that once we've switched off the second fridge that the golden path to progress will roll on ... is a myth. Like it always was.

      It's not about gloom and doom - it's about confronting real problems and using our smarts to overcome or avoid them…

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    5. Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      Contrarian / Epistemologist

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      I agree the bitter legacy discourse is emotive nonsense. When asked the question by imaginary grandchildren wallowing in their bitterness "Pops / Nanny what did you do during the great climate change inaction that destroyed our home planet Gaia Prime?"

      "Oh sweet heart I was one of the good guys, I posted on websites and was part of the great blogohrea fight back!"

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    6. Byron Smith

      PhD candidate in Christian Ethics at University of Edinburgh

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Only if relinquishing the consumerist dream of one more pair of shoes to put in one more cupboard of one more house on one more continent constitutes giving up. Personally, I'd argue that that dream is already a deep failure of imagination and that giving it up is just the beginning of the far greater and deeper task of becoming more human.

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    7. Peter Lang

      Retired geologist and engineer

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Don Aitkin,

      Excellent point. Clear thinking. Cuts through the reilious beliefs to get to reality.

      1. AGW is not catastrophic or dangerous. In fact, it may well be net beneficial up to about 2 C. Bryongd that jist just a minor net cost, perhaps 0.1% of GDP.

      2. If higher CO2 concentratiosn delay or prevent us sinking into the next ice age that is good (the natural cycle is already past the peak for this interglacial - we are on the cooling trend. Transition to very cold temperatures…

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    8. Stephen Prowse

      CEO at Wound CRC

      In reply to Stiofán Mac Suibhne

      There seems to be a sense in some of the posts that the planet can support indefinite growth in consumption and population. The reality is that it can not. The unknown is the timing. We can continue on our current trajectory and see what happens or we can be proactive and try to develop some different economic and social models.

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    9. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Peter Lang

      OK Mr Lang.

      Let's look under the hood of your Cost Benefit Analysis a bit....

      (1) When you say that increased CO2 might cost 0.1% of Global Domestic Product (I assume you mean something like that) whose GDP are we talking about? Is this just an overall global average? So who wins? Who loses? Some places according to your analysis will benefit from a slight CO2 warming - others won't. By how much?

      See it's that old joke isn't it ...for an economist if you have your head in a fridge and your feet in an oven you remain, on average, comfortable and relaxed. To quote Tim Curtin, nothing that needs correction.

      At what point is the switch to renewables "economically feasible" ... where is the break even point? For whom?

      Let's start there.

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    10. Trevor S

      Jack of all Trades

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      USA v Korea as polar opposites, possibly but not as some suspect. The single largest line item in the US Federal budget (and that doesn't include all the state and municipal welfare budgets) is Welfare, the largest expenditure, by far, in the North Korean Budget (guess here as the numbers are not exactly forthcoming) is the military.

      As to the other argument people often bring up to demonstrate extremes, Nazis being on the right and Communists on the left, as Hayek points out, NAZIism is National SOCALISM. As to Capitalism, that's my neighbour and me trading a chicken for a couple bottles of jam with no Government interference, throw in the private ownership of land and that is Capitalism, long may it live. I will never understand people using the USA to represent Capitalism, they're as far from Capitalism as Cuba is, no matter the rhetoric of their representatives.

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    11. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Strange concept that. If the brake pads on my car are worn out and I can't afford new ones I will drive through red lights because it isn't "economically feasible" to stop.
      Likewise we will keep burning fossil fuels because it isn't "economically feasible" to do other wise, no matter what the consequences.
      Or will build nuclear reactors even though the waste is extremely dangerous, and we will leave it laying around for about 250,000 years, because we don't know how to or it isn't "economically feasible" to dispose of it safely, or we leave the problem to future generations, so we can sit in over air-conditioned Mcmansions watching crap on our plasma TV's.
      Or we do nothing because it isn't "economically feasible", without considering the alternative which could be destruction of of life as we know it, but we won’t worry about that because it isn't "economically feasible".

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    12. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Trevor S

      USA is socialist, for the rich that is.
      North Korea more resembles a religous cult.

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    13. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      Alan,

      Check up on the latest nuclear power generators. You will be surprised at their minimal, short half-life waste and their safety.

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    14. Richard Dobson

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Stephen Prowse

      That's bullshit mate. The universe is constantly growing, expanding, spreading, enlarging... been doing it for billions of years.

      And by following the principle of "the macrocosm within the microcosm" with regard to the fractal nature of reality, we can also see that it is correct and proper and good for our economy to constantly grow and expand and spread and enlarge.

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    15. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Richard Dobson

      And keep in mind that GDP is just a measure of how much money is changing hands - there is no real reason that can't keep increasing indefinitely. And if the economy switches to a more service-based one - there is no reason it can't be ecology sustainable.

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    16. Jonathan Ely

      Student

      In reply to Richard Dobson

      I think you've completly misunderstood what you're talking about, the universe is expanding (possibly it will expand forever), but the conventional wisdom is that the matter and/or energy contained within is finite. If the universe does expand forever eventually all the stars will expend all their fuel and the universe will be unable to sustain life as we know it.

      Nothing can grow forever without eventually consuming all the resources available, you are mistaken if you believe otherwise.

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    17. Ron Chinchen

      Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)

      In reply to Jonathan Ely

      And therein lies a dilemma Jonathan.. Firstly I agree with you regarding earth's resourses being finite and limited and therefore in the long term unsustainable for energy use.

      However in respect of the Universe its a differnet kettle of quantum fish.

      Conventional wisdom suggests that the amount of energy/mass in the universe is finite and unchanging. Yet latest theories suggest that the Universe is accelerating in its expansion and has increased in that acceleration over the past many billions…

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  6. Peter Ormonde

    Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Farmer

    Excellent.

    No such thing as a free lunch ... we just must learn to consume less and produce more... not with machines and engines, with our hands, with work.

    More brain, more brawn, less borrowing from the past.

    And I agree regarding markets and the motives of merchants ... not sure self-interest, even informed self-interest, will be enough - if it ever was.

    Let's all start reading Herman Daly.

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    1. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I dream of a future where mankind conquers. A world beyond the shackles of ecology, where we live by the power of our mind, past the slavery that ecosystems have locked us into. A future completed by our intelligent consumption of Earths’ resources, one were we have built a utopia befitting our status as the rulers of the Earth and beyond. Free of the restrictive grip that incomprehensible Earth systems have over our progress to Godness. Where we have taken the past and made a future. A climate…

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Markus ...

      Too much Star Trek, not enough Pills.

      Too much making Stuff up, not enough Reading

      Otherwise you'd Know - being wise - how to Spell "believe". Yet not Do it. This Stuff you don't Understand.

      Your word-salading suggests that You are not taking your Meds Markus and that you are Drinking. and Not sleeping, which is why You Drink.

      Please get some professional help Markus. And I mean that sincerely. Psychosis is not something to play with, sorry, Play with...! Maybe your Friends will help. Maybe not.

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    3. Robert Haye

      physicist

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Markus, your irrational rants here do nothing but make you look silly. While you and other deniers try to rewrite physics, the problems get worse. Your self-proclaimed dyslexia and total lack of understanding of mathematics are apparent in every word you write. Stick the the weird denier blogs you poor, sad thing. Let the grown-ups talk.

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    4. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Yes Peter, obfuscation, ad hominens and denials are the best you can do. You believe in the theory of AGW, yet have no scientific proof to back up your belief. You deny that Earth systems have changed violently in the past, and will change in the future. You have read reams of Batshit and adhere to a mystical theology, Meher Baba would be proud of you.
      It must be easy Peter, I’m not asking for your understanding, just use that you beaut meta search engine and dig up the papers that will convert…

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    5. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Robert Haye

      You BELIEVER's should stop licking each other; at least what ails me is not contagious. But come on; show me how smart you are by calling me another name.

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    6. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Well, that is an interesting fantasy markus.
      But for the moment and probably some time into the future - we are dependent on the climate and the ecosystem for our survival - and probably shouldn't be changing them too much.

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    7. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Don’t like fantasy? Then let’s consider some sobering facts.
      Almost half the world — over three billion people — live on less than $2.50 a day. According to UNICEF, 22,000 children die each day due to poverty.
      Around 27-28 percent of all children in developing countries are estimated to be underweight or stunted. In developing countries some 2.5 billion people are forced to rely on biomass—fuel-wood, charcoal and animal dung—to meet their energy needs for cooking. Indoor air pollution resulting…

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    8. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Robert Haye

      Wow, that was a rounded incisive comment from a "physicist". Do me a favor Robert, give me a heads up on your accepted papers. Don't be shy now.

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    9. Robert Haye

      physicist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, it is telling that this person hides behind a pseudonym to launch his attacks. Many of his comments on other climate related articles on The Conversation have now been deleted by the mod - many of them showed a person (as you say) who is in serious need of help.

      If anyone knows who this markus fitzhenry is, please try to get him to seek help. There has been too much pain caused to scientists by anonymous extremists and I would hate to see this man's actions escalate beyond the hate-filled rants and threats to people posting here.

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    10. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Robert Haye

      I do not hide behind any pseudonym as you suggest 'physicist' and my attacks are no more than retorts to insidious name calling. Go back over the threads, the mods have removed the original comment then my reply.

      So; http://media.photobucket.com/image/albert%20einstein/slamchick440/albert-einstein.jpg?o=20

      The volume of your works can be found where?

      "There has been too much pain caused to scientists by anonymous extremists and I would hate to see this man's actions escalate beyond the hate-filled rants and threats to people posting here." Are you one of the "physicists" from the ANU.

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    11. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Don't worry Markus the Carbon Tax Wrecking Ball will start strangling the Australian economy tomorrow like a cobra apparently ... the beginning of the End of the World. Life will never be the same again.

      And the TV weather man up here is predicting a cold night and snow on the tops - as if! I believe nothing he says - he just says this for the money and political gain...

      Children. Theirs and yours? As if !... "By inhibiting fossil fuel supply we are restricting the third world’s chance of progress to population growth." Oh dear.

      Deeply unhinged Markus. Use that thick Alcan foil - not the cheap Chinese stuff ... too thin and lets in those special messages that only you can hear. And make sure the helmet covers your ears.

      Good luck for tomorrow.

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    12. Robert Haye

      physicist

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      I call BS.

      'markus fitzhenry' is not your real name.

      I will of course apologise if you are able to provide any evidence that I am wrong.

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    13. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Robert Haye

      I'm the one calling BS 'physicist'.
      You can can ask any one of these individuals if my real name is real;http://www.linkedin.com/reg/webmail-connect-entry?goback=.nmp_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1&batchID=10481460&importerProvider=GOOGLE&goback=.nmp_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1&flow=1qbwqgl-18p591w
      Also, contact this organisation; http://www.climate-sceptics.com/ my membership number is 814.
      I'm in Sydney this weekend, you can meet me in person here;http://www.nocarbontax.com.au/anti-carbon-tax-rallies/
      Now be fair, about your work, I can find it where?

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    14. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Be a good girl, Peter, go and water your orchids. You are hopeless at throwing insults.

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    15. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Thanks for that Markus, that's a very genuine compliment if unintended.

      I've noticed that when you are hurling insults you tend to call them girls or change their names to girls' names.

      Now thisis a bit difficult if you are going to have children Markus - most of the time it involves being in close proximity to women, talking to them, and much much worse.

      It's probably quite unlikely that this will ever occur while you regard describing someone as a woman as being a severe insult.

      Just something to think about.

      Thanks for the CV member 814 ... a real hoot, dripping with ability and achievement... just imagine how it will be looking when you are 30 in only a few more years, when you have a happy family and the Nobel - the first one.

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    16. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      You are becoming sillier by the minute. The orchid propenol must be getting up your nose.

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    17. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Crop failures - like the one in eastern Africa that is causing the latest famines.

      That is how climate change can kill people in the developed world.

      Less reliable weather patterns - unseasonable rain - more floods - more droughts. And you just know the effects are going to fall disproportionally on the poor.

      More violent storms. Hail. Frost. Strong Winds. Crop failures.

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    18. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Robert Haye

      Don't kid yourself Robert and don't try to kid others. I see you left off a few other positions. But what could one expect from a bloke who calls himself a physicist when he is not. I'm still calling BS and I know I won't have to apologise. Why do you lie Robert?

      When you and your trolling mate Robert Ormonde address the topic rather than me, other readers here might have some respect for you. As it is, I've have easily knocked both of you out.

      How about a response to my statement? "In the…

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    19. markus fitzhenry

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      "More violent storms. Hail. Frost. Strong Winds. Crop failures."

      Back to reality for a minute or two Gary.

      Floods, droughts and climate change
      Alexander, W J R
      S. Afr. J. Sci./Suid-Afr. Tydskr. Wet. Vol. 91, no. 8, pp. 403-408. Aug. 1995

      "Observations of apparent cyclicity of climatic extremes - floods and droughts - are as old as civilization itself. As all climatological processes are driven by the redistribution of solar energy, it is natural to search for explanations of the observed…

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    20. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      markus fitzhenry: "... it's the Sun stupid ..."
      If you can point me to the climate science papers you've had published in reputable peer-reviewed journals, I might take your opinion seriously. For myself, I freely acknowledge my ignorance of the subject.
      After doing my own due diligence, I came to the conclusion that I don't understand enough to credibly judge the science. From what I've seen, the same can be said of anyone who isn't formally qualified in Climate Science. Given the complexity and…

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    21. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Boxall

      Precisely David, this is why we have scientists.

      But when the message is a bit scary some folks would rather take the word of the bloke at the bus stop, Cardinal Pell, or the connections to Black Caviar... anyone, anyone at all who can make it all go away.

      There's a madness to it David.

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    22. Robert Haye

      physicist

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Markus

      You should not be embarrassed about being a bookeeper. It is a fine job to have.Some one has to do the paperwork for what the productive employees do.

      What I'd really like to know if where you received your other qualifications - the BB.L.and B.Phil.?

      And what exactly is a BB.L?

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    23. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      Now see Markus this is where you get yourself into strife....

      As it happens I do grow orchids as a hobby - habve done for 25 years or more - mostly natives and few ring-ins and I have never heard of anyone using propanol on them (NB the spelling).

      So I had a look for orchids and propanol and what do I find - The Orchid Chemical Company of China ... make lots of shocking sounding stuff ... but nothing for use with orchids as such. That's just the name of the manufacturer Markus.

      See how these random connections get you all tangled up and highlight your ignorance.... which seems near universal save for some mispelled Latin.

      Now go away and let the grown-ups have a chat and don't forget to get some professional help for the angry thoughts and loneliness. You are a very twitter and bisted young chap from what I read on the interweb.

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    24. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to markus fitzhenry

      No no no Markus, this Alexander fellow you are quoting has got it all - ALL - wrong....he says:

      "The only available long-term indicator of perturbations in solar radiation is the sunspot counts.

      But you know - you understand - you believe - in planetary harmonics ... this mystical synchronising of planetary temperatures throughout the solar system ... caused by ...er... something we don't know, can't see, can't measure or even theorise about.

      This Alexander bloke is obviously an apostate - a turncoat - a fifth columnist in your midst... a sun-spot follower! Shun him Markus and all those who turn their backs on the obvious revealed Truth of Planetary Harmonics.

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  7. Peter Bruce

    Software Engineer

    I am not yet a convert to the Sacred Church of Co2.

    Perhaps if I could get some raw data I could reach my own conclusions. It just so happens that this data is not shared. Most of the faithful rely on the findings of the IPCC. Summaries that have not been subjected to peer review and could well be deeply flawed.

    We know without any doubt that CFCs are a major problem, yet the focus is on CO2. Why?

    Australia's CO2 footprint is high when measured per capita, but low when measured by area…

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    1. Mike Swinbourne

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      It seems Peter Bruce is incapable of either reading or understanding science. If you don't want to accept the word of the IPPC then Peter, why don't you look at the reference list that is used for the IPCC reports, then go away and read all the papers. There are hundreds of them, but obviously that won't be enough to convince you because you have already made up your mind. CO2 church huh?

      And pray tell us, what is the expertise and what qualifies you do 'make up your own mind' on such a complex…

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    2. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Thanks Peter for your scientific response.

      If you can get me the complete data file of global atmospheric temperature readings collected over the last 20 years that would be great.
      I am after raw data, place time and temperature.

      As to the other responses to my post:
      I have been a database professional for 25 years. In that time I have produced tens of thousands of reports, many of these were flawed because of the specifiers requirements. Many more were misrepresented. Many datasets already…

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    3. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Perhaps you could explain why big chunks are falling off the Antarctic?.
      Why you can sail through the Artic every year, when in a 100 years of Artic exploration that only occurred once and was limited to one area?.
      Why nearly all the worlds glaciers are in retreat?.
      Why the permafrost is melting in the Artic circle?.
      Why the Greenland Icecap is retreating?.
      Why birds, animals and insects are relocating higher up mountains because their normal habitat is warming?.
      Why Europe is experiencing colder winters because there are more Artic icebergs and thereby cooling the Gulf Stream?.
      These are all real happening events not some theory or a computer model, you don't need raw data, just Google it, its all there.

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    4. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      Alan,

      Polar warming see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

      You will find that CO2 is a minor player compared to CFCs.

      And yes I have been collating data from the BOM, not an easy task I might add. The data interface is designed for one station in a given year. There are many stations and many years to do.

      I have no doubt that mankind is looting the planet. I would like to see effective measures taken, not knee jerk nonsense that in all probabilty will provide nothing other than employment. The CO2 options are there, but they are not being taken up.

      There seems to be a bucket of money in C02 and not much in CFC elimination, nuclear base load generation of hyrdogen powered vehicles.

      Don't you smell a rat too?

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    5. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Try this lot ... the US bas es its main temperature anaylsis on the data from this database both NASA's Goddard Centre and the National Climatic Data Centre ... pretty kosher.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Historical_Climatology_Network

      As you go back the number of measurements (and their bonafides most likely) get a bit "rubbery" but the last 60 years worth is pretty comprehensive and decent.

      Hope that helps.

      Let me know if it doesn't.

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    6. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Thanks Peter,

      Looks like what I'm after.

      I'll load it up and play.

      Cheers

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    7. Daniel Lim

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Peter,

      Hydrogen is an energy vector no different to electricity. It is not an energy source. It is also highly inefficient at this point in time due to the energy required to convert (and store it (either compression or liquefaction).

      The one real advantage hydrogen does have over electricity is that it can be stored whereas its a lot harder to store electricity. But until such a time that our power is sourced from clean technologies - it is far from a solution of any sort.

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    8. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Mike Swinbourne

      Well excuse me for offending you.

      Scientific research is above working on incorrect data, is it?

      So now that I've got the data, no thanks to you. I will check it out, just like I do every day for a living.

      I hope you are right that I emulate Richard Muller's conclusion. I would be very comfortable.

      I am not comfortable at the moment.

      I would hate to see yet another tax wasted, yet again.

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    9. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      A rat?

      No - I smell some arrogant fool who clearly hasn't done any research and just arrives at a forum and starts making vile accusations against good people.

      What do you think this is - the Bolt report? Where some idiot who is too weak and cowardly to take a position of his own just throws mud at others?

      Pull your head in and show some respect.

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    10. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Daniel Lim

      Hi Daniel,

      Thanks for your response. Up until a few weeks ago I would have agreed with you 100%.

      I sat with a good friend who explained how our electricity supply works.

      Power stations bid to supply in 30 minute segments. Some operators will look for a higher price and miss out on "plugging in", some will settle for a lower price and get to sell more of the energy they generate. When the wind generators come on line they are guaranteed to supply the grid.

      Solar input is negligible…

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    11. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Chill Gary,

      So far all Peter has done is say he doesn't know isn't sure and would like to see some raw numbers - to make some sort of informed assessment about whether the place is getting hotter.

      I don't think he's made his mind up and I will take time to discuss these things with those who have a truly open mind. Specially if they can understand the patterns... but data there is in truckloads.

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    12. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Says the mud thower with no position.

      I am trying to be contructive and think independently.

      I am not attacking anyone. If you think so then perhaps I have not made my position clear enough. I have great respect for science, scientists and their community.

      I do not have anywhere near that respect for organisations with politically motivated agendas.

      I suspect that the base data may not be 100%. Are you sure that it is?

      I do not need to understand the ramifications of the data to check it's integrity.

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    13. Daniel Lim

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Hi Peter

      I understand what you get at and you have a point. However, with present technology, the easiest and cheapest way to generate hydrogen is through steam reformation of natural gas. Again this is a very inefficient process as you first convert natural gas to hydrogen, then either combust hydrogen or put it through a fuel cell to use its energy content. It is much simpler to simply burn the natural gas.

      Of course when we talk about using hydrogen as a form of electricity storage - we…

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    14. Daniel Lim

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Also Peter,

      With the BMW Hydrogen 7 which incidentally was released about the same time I was working on our own hydrogen car and shares the similarity of being a hydrogen ICE rather than fuel cell car.... if you read the wiki entry on it, you will find many issues which halted it from mass production beyond just refuelling infrastructure.

      The hydrogen was stored in a specialised tank at cryogenic temperatures to maintain the hydrogen in liqued form so enough hydrogen could be stored to get a decent range. H2 fuel consumption rates were 50l/100km.

      If the car is parked and not driven, over a period of 10-12 days all the hydrogen basically gets vented from the tank. This is because although the tank is heavily insulated, over time it warms, the hydrogen expands and vapourises and in order to prevent it from exploding, BMW engineers designed it to safely vent. Far from practical would you not agree?

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    15. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Daniel Lim

      Yes, impractical. Alas.

      Thanks for you knowledge. It is very much appreciated.

      Perhaps the fuel cell will prove to be workable.

      And thank you for your years of research.

      Peter

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    16. Daniel Lim

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      No worries Peter. After all these forums are meant to be for the sharing and proliferation of knowledge.

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    17. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to James Sexton

      Thanks James,

      I am used to truely raw data, that which has come from the instrument.

      I have visisted the GHCN site and their deifinition of "raw" does not match mine.

      I may sound like a data Nazi, and yes, I am. I will try to the best of my ability to be objective and impartial.

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    18. Robert Haye

      physicist

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, it's a silly game these deniers play. They pretend the data is not available, so you give it to them. They then say the raw data isn't really raw data, even when it is. Even when their paid shills at the BEST project prove the data is valid, they deny it. They are fake skeptics, worthy only of derision.

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    19. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Hmm last 20 years..... is that the only relevant time in history? I'm not sure what that would show, other than a slight increase and then a flattening of temps for the 3/4 of that period.

      The difficulties arise in relation to the original data. Regarding the various temp gathering and assimilating organizations and records, all different revisions which I've seen, without exception, decrease historical temps and increase them as we come nearer to the present. Every one of them. The same is applied to sea level as well.

      Think about that for a second. The occurrence of random error correction resulting in the same direction over and over again. The frequency of which this occurs precludes it being an actual possibility. From the GHCN revisions to the Hadley revisions to GISS' rolling algorithm. It's all quite fascinating. Wrong and silly, but fascinating. People actually think our ice caps are going to melt because of errantly applied error correction.

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    20. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Robert Haye

      Lol, You've got to be kidding .... paid shills? Do you realize he and his daughter run a climate change consultancy company?

      Paid shills indeed. But, don't let facts ruin your narrative. I wonder, how many more errant beliefs you hold?

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    21. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Peter Bruce, good luck. I once set out on a similar excursion with tidal gauge measurements. I believe you will find a time on your journey in which you won't be able to operate on pure objectivity. At some point, a subjective judgment will be required to move forward. The cause is mostly because of lack of continuity and coverage.

      While it is an incredibly frustrating experience, it is also very illuminating.

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    22. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to James Sexton

      James, I was hoping to get data that had not been "corrected". It appears I will not have access to that data, so any analysis, for my purposes will be a waste of time.

      This thread has been an interesting experience for me. There have been a few participants that have tried to help and some that have given me had won knowledge. To them I am very grateful. They embody the ideals of science.

      Those that wish to burn me at the stake, take a look in the mirror and see what a zealot looks like. Some responses have been akin to what I would expect if I stood up in a congregation of the faithful and questioned the existence of God. You are doing your cause no good at all.

      To those that think I am taking a cheap shot at the science community: read again. My concern is that the base data is flawed. It is comforting to hear than many good minds believe the data to be truly representative, but I would like to see that myself.

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    23. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      I will try and track down the uncorrected data ... you're right that will be difficult but I'm pretty certain I can find it for you ... give me a couple of days. They do correct their data for a reason you know ... the raw numbers make no allowances for time of measurement between stations, the technology changes and the stations get moved about... but such adjustments would be rather insignificant I suspect.

      There's an explanation of the data correction process here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

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    24. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      It was these terms that particularly offended me:

      "Sacred Church of Co2"
      "Gravy Train"
      "smell a rat"

      And your other comments clearly indicate that you have done no research and don't know what you are talking about - which is fine - but it certainly does not give you authority to be making such offensive remarks.

      BTW: I wasn't accusing you of being an idiot who was too weak and cowardly to take a position of his own - that was directed at Andrew Bolt.

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    25. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Sorry to offend you Gary. My initial post was too sharp, and in hindsight I would have toned it down a bit.

      You are correct. I have done very little research into the subject. I earn my living elsewhere.

      My concerns are still the same and I have no axe to grind with the scientific community. My concern is those that manipulate for political gain. It would be a horrible waste of time, money and talent if the base data is not up to scratch.

      We are talking of a lot of money here with many to gain and many to lose so it is very difficult to see who is right and who is wrong. I have many friends working in various branches of science and thier opinions are divided.

      Frankly I am a lot like the rest of the GP who does not know what to believe.

      So I am looking, prodding and poking for answers and have been for a number of years, so far to no avail.

      Peter Ormonde has offered to track down raw data for me. If I can get it and it looks clean then I'm sold.

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    26. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Try this out Peter... the US National Climate Data Centre has a seriously immense set of databases ... all sort of stuff from plankton counts through to upper atmosphere, ocean, land temps.

      Several of the databases I've looked at provide access to uncorrected data (like COD) but I haven't looked at them all.

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

      I wonder why I am getting those pesky little "unconstructive" messages for tracking down data for someone. Seems facts can be unconstructive for some folks. Let's see whom.

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    27. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Bruce

      Peter Bruce: "My concern is that the base data is flawed."
      Fascinating. Bearing in mind that the vast majority of the best qualified are in substantial agreement, let's examine that comment.
      You believe that there are flaws in the data which thousands of highly qualified people missed, but you alone can detect. That sounds like a delusion of grandeur.
      Failing that, do you believe that the vast majority of the best qualified are involved in some grand conspiracy? Wouldn't that be a delusional conspiracy theory?
      Perhaps you believe that only you can correctly interpret the data. Wouldn't that be onanistic delusion?
      Apparently, you're a software engineer. How does that qualify you in climate science?

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    28. Peter Bruce

      Software Engineer

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Thanks Peter,

      I pull it down. Of course I can't analyse the data, just assess it's integrity.
      I guess that's "unconstructive" to some.

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  8. Anthony Nolan

    Ruminant

    Steady state economics would drive a massive reduction in employed productivity. This would be a boon to humanity - the opportunity to discover or remember what makes life worth living.

    The social relations of production in a capitalist economy are vile; superiors and co-workers, dullards to a woman, dream of nothing more than not being at work so they can "be themselves" but usually by purchasing a five star package of some sort or another for a few weeks relief. After that, back to the grindstone…

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  9. Bernie Masters

    environmental consultant at FIA Technology Pty Ltd, B K Masters and Associates

    Thanks for the article, Patrick, and I don't agree with others who believe it has no point since I agree that the carbon tax will be ineffective.

    I think that you touch on some very important points that need further discussion where you state: "global climate change will likely have to share centre-stage with several other serious environmental/resource problems: biodiversity loss, water and food shortages, oil and phosphorus depletion". My view is that, until global population peaks and begins…

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    1. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Bernie Masters

      "Water shortages being overcome by technological innovations so they don't worry me," I think you have major comprehension problem there, India has in 30 years of irrigation used 3/5ths of their groundwater, so in 20 years it will be gone, pray tell how "technological innovations" will get it back?. It has taken a hell of a lot more than 30 years to build that reservoir up so "technological innovations" will not replenishing it.
      In Australia The Great Artesian Basin used to spout water out of the…

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    2. Bernie Masters

      environmental consultant at FIA Technology Pty Ltd, B K Masters and Associates

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      Desalination of seawater is rapidly improving its energy efficiency and hence cost. For a country like India, the issue won't be water availability but how to distribute water from coastal desal plants into the large populations of people living inland from the coast.

      Although the environmental impact of many aquaculture operations is significant and unacceptable, it's a technology that can readily supply us with fish protein for human consumption. I think Australia already imports more than half of its fish from overseas aquaculture operations, so issues of scale and environmental protection are more pressing here than whether the technology exists and can provide for future human needs.

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    3. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Bernie Masters

      Why this fascination with desal? cleaning stormwater must surely be cheaper and more environmentally friendlier than desal, for a start you are not dumping all that toxic crap in the ocean, and it must be easier to remove dirt than salt, and desal uses a hell of of a lot of energy. Sydney Harbour floor for instance is so toxic, that it is dangerous to disturb it. Perth pump their stormwater up to the reservoir recharge area and then it filters in the reservoir as clean water, it takes 10 years and its all sand so its not hard.

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    4. Trevor S

      Jack of all Trades

      In reply to Bernie Masters

      Take the fishing industry, when stocks started to decline did they say "Whoa we better slow down and conserve our fish stock". No! they went and bought bigger boats thereby increasing the decline"

      How else do you feed the people if Government and "Green" groups knock back fish farm development ? and irresponsible entities like the Catholic Church and the US Government decry family planning advice.

      That aside it gets irksome people saying we an't rely on some -ism or other. These isms have…

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    5. Bernie Masters

      environmental consultant at FIA Technology Pty Ltd, B K Masters and Associates

      In reply to Alan John Hunter

      Good point. If stormwater is available, it should be much easier and cheaper to treat to drinking water standards. The problem is that stormwater is usually only produced on a seasonal basis, whereas seawater is available all year round.
      The brine that results from the operation of desal plants is simply a concentration of the naturally occurring salts that occur in seawater. Experience from WA shows that, within 100 metres of the desal plant's outfall, it is impossible to measure higher than normal levels of dissolved salts, so the dilution of the brine is totally effective.
      I doubt that anyone would be seriously proposing to take water for a desal plant from a semi-enclosed waterbody such as Sydney Harbour, not just because of the poor quality of the harbour's sediments as you point out but because it is far better to return the brine to an open ocean environment where mixing and dilution can render it completely inoffensive very quickly.

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    6. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Bernie Masters

      I wasn't suggesting using Sydney Harbour water for desal, but pointing out what happens when you dump rubbish in waterways, it finishes up at the bottom and stays there.

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  10. Daniel Lim

    logged in via LinkedIn

    Patrick, I like how you have a picture of the Gordon dam as an illustration of new energy sources/comes at environmental cost.

    I know it's just an illustration and this is not a critique in any way - just saying.... I actually miss working on those old hydro machines.

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Daniel Lim

      Daniel,

      There's actually some spiffy small scale hydro stuff about ... have a look at microhydro ... there's a website I used to have some dealings with... run by a bloke in Peru and a lot of development workers types from just about everywhere. Can't find it now but if you're interested I'll track it down.

      Useful anywhere you've got decent reliable rainfall and nothing too valuable and seriously small you're going to drown. ... bit of height helps too ... in other words not here as a rule. Parts of SE Asia and India though - spot on local solution.

      Can be as simple as sticking a pipe up above a waterfall or set of them and diverting a % of the running water off to a turbine and returning it down the bottom. Some very clever designs, simple to make and fix.

      Having worked on big stuff you might find some of these set-ups rather ingenious.

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    2. Daniel Lim

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Hi Peter

      Thanks but not something I would look into right now. I do hear some really good things micro-hydro systems are doing in remote areas with decent rainfall and height as you've mentioned though.

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  11. paul magnus

    logged in via Twitter

    Infact we may need the democratic structure modified to cope with AGW. Even though china isn't doing well here either. Even if half of us are willing to give up the convenience of fossil fuels the other won't.

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  12. David Boxall

    logged in via Facebook

    Well, it's Sunday morning. The carbon tax has begun and, here on the east coast, the sun has risen. So far, so good.

    Tony Abbott's credibility is on the line. Does anybody know whether Whyalla has been wiped from the face of the earth?

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    1. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Well David and Peter it is clear that you warmists are living in a different reality from me. Over here there is chaos and almost total collapse of the social order: Trotskyites have taken Cessnock, the unemployed of Wallsend are fornicating in the streets and a report has just come in that the entire membership of the NSW Lawn Bowling Assoc are at this moment drinking the orangeade. In the small hours I found a neighbour, a decorated member of the NSW Public Service, weeping while staring disconsolately at his now defunct leaf blower; the damn thing just won't work. I look out my barred and armoured window into the steaming black eyes of a pig perched menacingly in the branches of my Illawarra Flame Tree and have no recourse but to keep sticking pins into a wax model of Bob Brown. Damn.

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    2. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Anthony Nolan

      And on TV a bit before 10AM, they showed Gary Gray with his Mum in Whyalla. It was still there.

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    3. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Boxall

      Rubbish David ... it's the fake moon landing all over again... a flimsy canvas set of Whyalla designed to fool and reassure... while behind the facade the wrecking ball squeezes the living daylights out of this Eden of the South like an armadillo.

      And from the frontline - the verdict is in - my rooster has stopped crowing ... an omen obviously of the end of time, sorry End of Time. While other roosters are doing nothing but crowing. There's a pattern if ever I saw one - they know Life will never be the same... they hear the slithering approach of this viperous demolition gear and are afraid - very very afraid.

      Or not.

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    4. Anthony Nolan

      Ruminant

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Whyalla, home of the brave, gone! I laid in a stock of excellent Australian made tin foil, the good stuff from ALCOA with diamonds stamped on it, and have been busy all morning distributing tin-foil hats to the entire district. The CWA has been most helpful. We've formed an alliance between the CWA, the nice team from the Community Mental Health Services and Gloucester Coal to declare the entire shire a Carbon Tax Free Zone and anti-warmist haven. All refugees will be welcome so long as they prove their credentials to the bush fire brigade boys manning the blockade. Reports continue to flood in - homosexuals getting married, boats of funny looking people coming in to Stockton Bight. A terrible, terrible business.

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