We should be sceptical of anyone claiming a recession is just around the corner.
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Articles on Economic forecasting
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An analysis by CSIRO’s strategic and economic advisory arm suggests spending on research and development can earn annual yields of 10%, even if there are delays or cost overruns.
Britain’s finance minister delivers his first Spring Statement hot on the heels of some rather good economic news.
The leaked government Brexit report reinforces the academic consensus that the harder the Brexit, the worse it will be for the UK economy.
We prefer to go with our guts.
Wonky forecasts show it’s time for a new approach that adopts more conservative forecasts, and makes a genuine commitment to budget repair.
Recent history shows us why we should take the latest healthy forecasts with a pinch of salt.
By focusing on forecasting issues, economists remain disengaged with real-world problems.
Most economists argued against Brexit, predicting dire consequences if the UK voted to leave the EU. Here’s why bets are still on to see if they were right.
There are plenty of reasons to reject the consensus that Brexit will be costly to the UK economy.
There are three main types of forecast when it comes to the economic effects of Brexit – here’s how to tell the difference between them.
Unpredictability is omnipresent in life, from dealing playing cards, through contracting an illness or getting promoted, to the rise or fall of equity markets. For those attempting to make the calls on…
Discussion of the federal budget has featured much doom-mongering. This is exemplified by forecasts of a A$6-8 billion black hole in 2015-16, when the carbon tax switches to an emissions trading scheme…
When assessing some of the assumptions underpinning Wayne Swan’s 2013 federal budget, two things spring to mind: the Henry Tax Review and the notorious inaccuracy of forward estimates. History shows it…
The good times are over. That’s the message both parties are sending out ahead of the budget and September’s election. Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey promises major cuts to spending and welfare if the coalition…
One certainty about economic forecasts is that, almost certainly, they will prove to be incorrect. The best forecasters can hope for is not to make systematic errors – to get it right on average – and…
It’s an old joke, but hard to resist around Budget time. That is, that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable. Over the past few days we’ve heard a lot about how notoriously…
Top contributors
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Professor of Economics, UCL
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Professor of Economics, University of Canberra
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Professor in Accounting (Retired), Deakin University
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Research Fellow - Sociology, School of Social Sciences, Monash University
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University Associate, School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania
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Professor of Economics, Lancaster University
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Professor of Economics and Political Economy, University of Leeds
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Emeritus Professor of Econometrics, University of Southampton
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Chief executive officer, Grattan Institute
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Senior Lecturer in Finance, Director of the MSc Finance, University of Stirling
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Professor of Finance, University of Liverpool
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Lecturer, Finance, University of Liverpool
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Emeritus Professor of Management Science, University of Bath
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Professor, Health Systems Research and Founding Director, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University
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Lead Economist, CSIRO Futures, CSIRO
