tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/2020-census-59069/articles2020 Census – The Conversation2022-10-07T12:20:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910422022-10-07T12:20:22Z2022-10-07T12:20:22ZCensus data hides racial diversity of US ‘Hispanics’ – to the country’s detriment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488087/original/file-20221004-21-dvyxff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C37%2C8256%2C5425&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Biden Joe Biden speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month 2022 reception at the White House. Just who counts as 'Hispanic' in the U.S. is an open question.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-biden-joe-biden-speaks-at-a-hispanic-heritage-news-photo/1243624729?phrase=hispanic heritage month&adppopup=true">Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As I opened an email from my local grocery store chain advertising Hispanic Heritage Month – which runs from Sept. 15 to Oct. 15 each year – I was surprised to see it highlighting recipes from four distinct regions: Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America. </p>
<p>The advertisement rightly noted that while corn and beans have framed much of what in the United States is considered “Hispanic” foods, Latin America has a much greater diversity of foods. <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/cooking-technology-9781474234689/">Its cuisine</a>, which began long before the Spanish or other colonizers came to the Americas, continues to flourish. </p>
<p>While many of us <a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-using-latinx-if-you-really-want-to-be-inclusive-189358">Latine</a> – an alternative term for Latinos or Latinx that I prefer – embrace our European heritage, we also embrace our <a href="http://www.degruyter.com">Indigenous and African heritage</a>. </p>
<p>In recent decades, many Latin American nations have officially recognized their Indigenous and Afro-descendent populations as distinct groups with unique histories, cultures, foods and languages. </p>
<p>Countries across the Americas, including the United States, have <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/behind-the-numbers-race-and-ethnicity-in-latin-america/">revised their census questions to better understand their populations</a>, enabling them to create more inclusive policies that actually address people’s needs – and to recognize the too-often hidden achievements of these groups.</p>
<h2>Census changes in Latin America</h2>
<p>Some Latin American countries, such as Peru, have counted their Indigenous population for over a century. But with the exception of Brazil and Cuba, Latin American countries generally <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwim9bj5ysb6AhUwkIkEHZpEBgQQFnoECCoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fopenknowledge.worldbank.org%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10986%2F30201%2F129298-7-8-2018-17-30-51-AfrodescendientesenLatinoamerica.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1QUIfPDCb5YXQRcxvrRl0L">excluded race on their national census</a>, allowing economic and social inequalities to flourish undocumented. </p>
<p>The effort to better capture both <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0276562415000177">Indigenous and Afro-descendant populations in Latin America began around the turn of the 21st century</a>.</p>
<p>Uruguay, a small and prosperous South American country, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137001702_10">long portrayed itself as white and European</a> despite being home to <a href="https://www.uncpress.org/book/9780807871584/blackness-in-the-white-nation/">Afro-Uruguayans descended from enslaved Africans</a>. In 1996, under pressure from Afro-descendent activists, it added race to its national household survey. That census had census workers identify the respondents’ race and found the country to be 6% Afro-descended and revealed stunning racial disparities in education, income and employment. When in 2006 Uruguayan census-takers began asking residents to state their own racial identity, the <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/125852428/Towards-a-Framework-for-Multicultural-Justice-in-Uruguay-Afro-Descendant-Exclusion-and-Collective-Rights-Under-International-Law">Afro-descended population jumped to 10%</a>. This data shift had important implications when Uruguay implemented race-based affirmative action a few years later. </p>
<p>In Mexico, where Indigenous identity had previously been linked only to speakers of one of the country’s 68 Indigenous languages, the census was changed in 2020 to ask if respondents self-identified as Indigenous or belonged to a community that identified as Indigenous. The result was an increase of 7.1 million people to <a href="https://www.alcaldesdemexico.com/notas-principales/poblacion-indigena-en-mexico-la-realidad-en-cifras/">23.2 million who identified as Indigenous</a>. The same change targeting the Afro-Mexican population identified a previously unrecognized <a href="https://aldianews.com/en/culture/heritage-and-history/finally-visible">population of 2.5 million</a>. </p>
<h2>‘Some other race’</h2>
<p>The U.S. added a question about Hispanic descent to the 1970 census long form, and to the short form in 1980. The question asked, “Is this person of Hispanic/Spanish descent?” If the answer was Yes, these were following options: Mexican or Mexican-American or Chicano; Puerto Rican; Cuban; Other Spanish/Hispanic. </p>
<p>In subsequent decades, small changes were made such, as including the word “Latino” and allowing those who choose “other” in the national origin category to write in a response, with suggestions of “Argentinian, Colombian, Dominican, Salvadoran, Spaniard, and so on.” In 2020, the census allowed respondents to identify as “multiracial.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488132/original/file-20221004-26-hb3oh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The 2020 U.S. census questionnaire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2020_census_questionnaire.jpg">Ɱ via Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The U.S. Census Bureau argues that its categories now adequately capture the heritage of the 62.6 million <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/08/improvements-to-2020-census-race-hispanic-origin-question-designs.html">Hispanics that flourish in the U.S.</a> “because all detailed Hispanic origin groups are included in the newly combined code list.” </p>
<p>In fact, however, if your heritage stems from one of the hundreds of Indigenous or Afro-descended groups in Latin America, these identities remain outside of the way the U.S. captures race among the Hispanic populations. That may explain why, <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/2020-united-states-population-more-racially-ethnically-diverse-than-2010.html">according to the Census Bureau</a> “the vast majority (94%) of responses to the race question that are classified as Some Other Race are from people of Hispanic or Latino origin.” </p>
<h2>Overgeneralized and under-recognized</h2>
<p>When the fixed categories of a census erase the diversity of a population, the gross miscalculations that result may harm a country’s ability to appropriately respond to the needs of its people. </p>
<p>For example, the overgeneralizing of U.S. Hispanics hurts the quality of American education and health care when these institutions assume that Latin American heritage communities speak Spanish. In addition to Indigenous languages, Latino Afro-descendant populations may not speak Spanish but rather may speak French or Haitian Creole, Portuguese or an Indigenous language. If they are from the Miskito Coast of Nicaragua, they may speak an English Creole. </p>
<p>These language differences reflect unique cultures and histories that relate to how people engage with doctors, teachers, politicians and much more. </p>
<p>Failing to recognize the diversity of Hispanics also creates frequent election surprises in the U.S. For example, pollsters <a href="https://theconversation.com/so-called-latino-vote-is-32-million-americans-with-diverse-political-opinions-and-national-origins-149515">got the Latino vote all wrong in 2020</a> by lumping together 32 million people with diverse political opinions and national origins as “Latino.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/democrats-cant-count-on-latinos-to-swing-the-midterms-105338">Democrats arguably made the same mistake</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>In overgeneralizing Hispanics, the U.S may also overlook – to its own detriment – the knowledge and experience of a culturally unique people who bring with them alternative understandings of the world, some of which I’ve studied as an anthropologist focused on food security, migration and health in Latin America. These include agricultural practices that can aid <a href="http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in">American farmers in responding to the global climate crisis</a> and Mesoamerican strategies for health based on <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32848768/">communal care and traditional remedies</a>. </p>
<h2>A growing community with more to offer</h2>
<p>Despite its limitations, U.S. census data clearly shows that the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/15/who-is-hispanic/">Hispanic population continues to grow</a>. While the overall U.S. population increased 7% between 2010 and 2020, the Hispanic population expanded by 23%. Today, 1 in every 5 people in the U.S. identifies with Hispanic or Latino heritage.</p>
<p>This growth is particularly notable in the South – in states like Georgia and North Carolina – and in rural areas. The Hispanic population has become a demographic lifeline for parts of small-town America that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09605-8">experienced significant population loss in the late 20th century</a>. </p>
<p>Hispanic communities have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716211433445">reinvigorated urban neighborhoods</a> as they open small businesses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man and woman dance as men in a traditional Mexican costumes entertain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexicans and Mexican-Americans who live in Brooklyn, New York, celebrate a birthday in Prospect Park on April 4, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-and-woman-dance-as-men-in-a-traditional-mexican-news-photo/1310826559?phrase=Mexican%20brooklyn&adppopup=true">Roy Rochlin/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Rebuilding cities, stabilizing rural counties, expanding local economies – these are among the group contributions made by the community of Americans celebrated each year during Hispanic Heritage Month. </p>
<p>The better we understand the nuances of this large population, the better we will understand who we are as a nation – and benefit more fully from our diversity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramona L. Pérez receives funding from the Tinker Foundation, National Science Foundation, and the US Department of Agriculture. She is affiliated with the American Anthropological Association, where she currently serves as president. </span></em></p>Countries across the Americas are tweaking their census to better understand their population, allowing them to create more responsive policies. The US still has a ways to go.Ramona L. Pérez, Professor of Anthropology, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796122022-03-25T12:19:33Z2022-03-25T12:19:33Z2020 census miscounted Americans – 4 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453610/original/file-20220322-17-1ukv0eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C0%2C5157%2C3448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Census takers went door to door in 2020, as in past years, seeking to make the count as accurate as possible.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/2020CensusDoorKnockers/0075ed39582247b5a577b989138e5fa7/photo">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>_The census conducted in the U.S. every 10 years is meant to count everyone. But it doesn’t actually count everyone.</p>
<p><em>After every census, the U.S. Census Bureau reports how well it did at counting every person in the country. In 2020, as in past years, the census <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u-s-census-bureau-report-finds-racial-gap-in-2020-population-count">didn’t get a completely accurate count</a>, according to the bureau’s own reporting. The official census number reported more non-Hispanic whites and people of Asian backgrounds in the U.S. than there actually were. And it reported too few Blacks, Hispanics and <a href="https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/special-reports/2022/02/21/census-historically-undercounted-indigenous-population-wisconsin/6570741001">Native Americans</a> who live on reservations.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BHtyLUQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Aggie Yellow Horse</a>, a sociologist and demographer at Arizona State University, to explain why, and how, the census misses people, and how it’s possible to assess who wasn’t counted.</em>_</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person wearing a mask and a face shield writes on a clipboard while talking with a person in a car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453612/original/file-20220322-15-1l2y8bo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Census workers found their time and ability to connect with people limited by the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CensusMontanaHouseSeat/3c04be6e29914360bc2b1e2b11609eab/photo">AP Photo/Matthew Brown</a></span>
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<h2>1. Who gets missed in the census?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2019/demo/2020-brief.html">people most commonly missed</a> are those with low income, people who rent or don’t have homes at all, people who live in rural areas and people who don’t speak or read English well. Often, these are people of color – Black Americans; Indigenous peoples; or people of Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander backgrounds.</p>
<p>Because of their living situations, these people can be hard for census takers to track down in the first place. And they may be more reluctant to participate because of concerns <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/planning-management/plan/final-analysis/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.html">about confidentiality, fear of repercussions and distrust of government</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the U.S. Census Bureau tries to count everyone, aiming <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/02/census-bureau-reaches-native-hawaiians-and-pacific-islanders-through-music.html">targeted public relations campaigns</a> at specific communities to encourage members to participate. In addition, Census Bureau employees knock on doors in person across the country, trying to <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-census-nonresponse-followup-completion-rates.html">follow up with those who did not respond to mailings, announcements and events</a>. </p>
<p>However, the pandemic made that process more difficult for the 2020 census, both by making people uncomfortable with in-person visits and by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/census-supreme-court-ruling.html">shortening the timeline for collecting the data</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Who got missed?</h2>
<p>The official estimates show that the 2020 census was really very accurate, capturing 99.8% of the nation’s residents overall. But the census <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html">missed counting</a> 3.3% of Black Americans, 5.6% of American Indians or Alaskan Natives who live on reservations and 5% of people of Hispanic or Latino origin. This could mean missing about 1.4 million Black Americans; 49,000 American Indians or Alaskan Natives who live on reservations; and 3.3 million people of Hispanic or Latino origin.</p>
<p>This performance is much worse than in the previous two censuses, when smaller proportions of those populations were missed.</p>
<p>The 2020 census also counted 1.64% more non-Hispanic whites than there actually are in the country. For example, college students could have been counted twice – at their college residence and at their parents’ home.</p>
<p><iframe id="Gz3oo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Gz3oo/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. How can they count the people who were missed?</h2>
<p>It can be puzzling to understand how the Census Bureau can know how many people it missed. Efforts for measuring census accuracy <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2012/04/02/sample-surveys-and-the-1940-census/">started in 1940</a>. Census officials use two methods.</p>
<p>First, the Census Bureau uses <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement/da.html">demographic analysis</a> to create an estimate of the population. That means the bureau calculates how many people might be added to the population counts, through birth registrations and immigration records, and how many people might be removed from them, through death record or emigration reports. Comparing that estimate with the actual count can reveal an <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/popest/2020-demographic-analysis-tables.html">overall scale</a> of how many people the census missed.</p>
<p>As a second measure, the Census Bureau runs what it calls a “<a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2021/post-enumeration-survey.html">post-enumeration survey</a>,” taken after the initial census data is collected. The survey is conducted independent of the census and <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/planning-management/plan/memo-series/2020-memo-2022_06.html">randomly sent to a small group of households</a> from census blocks in each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The results of that survey are compared with the census results for those households and can reveal how many people were missed, or if some people were counted twice or counted in the wrong place.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man gestures at a screen showing two maps of political districts in South Carolina" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453615/original/file-20220322-27-1hv1yd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Population figures formally reported by the Census Bureau for the purposes of reapportionment cannot be corrected, according to a 1999 Supreme Court ruling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Redistricting-SouthCarolina/3a5b086838a441f396539a20a71ec024/photo">AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins</a></span>
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<h2>4. Can the Census Bureau fix its data?</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau has determined that its 2020 data is not accurate and has measured the amount of that inaccuracy. But in 1999, the Supreme Court ruled that <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/525/326">the bureau cannot adjust the numbers</a> it sent to Congress and the states for the purpose of allocating seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and, therefore, Electoral College votes. That’s because federal law <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/13/141">bars the use of statistical sampling</a> in apportionment decisions and requires those changes to be made only on the basis of how many people were actually counted. That means political representation in Congress may not accurately reflect the constituencies the representatives serve.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/525/326">the numbers can be adjusted when used to divide up federal funding</a> for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610946/2020-census-correction-challenge-results-count-question-resolution">essential services in communities</a> around the nation. More than <a href="https://www.census.gov/about/what.html">US$675 billion a year is provided to tribal, state and local governments</a> proportionally according to their population numbers.</p>
<p>However, that adjustment happens only if tribal, state or local officials ask for it. The Census Bureau’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2021/2020-census-count-question-resolution.html">Count Question Resolution program</a> can correct 2020 census data until June 2023. After the 2010 census, the program received requests from 1,180 governments, of out about 39,000 nationwide. As a result, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42092.pdf">about 2,700 people were newly added</a> to the census count, and about <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610946/2020-census-correction-challenge-results-count-question-resolution">48,000 household addresses were corrected</a>.</p>
<p>This approach can lessen the harm done to communities where the census count missed people. But it doesn’t prevent the Census Bureau from missing them – or others – in the next census.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aggie Yellow Horse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the Census Bureau’s count of the population is inaccurate, it affects representation and government spending. Correcting errors isn’t always allowed.Aggie Yellow Horse, Assistant Professor of Asian Pacific American Studies, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1728502021-12-01T13:36:14Z2021-12-01T13:36:14ZHow the US census led to the first data processing company 125 years ago – and kick-started America’s computing industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434761/original/file-20211130-27-1uk0tsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C2394%2C2307&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This electromechanical machine, used in the 1890 U.S. census, was the first automated data processing system.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/niallkennedy/6414584">Niall Kennedy/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Constitution requires that a population count be conducted at the beginning of every decade. </p>
<p>This census has always been charged with political significance, and continues to be. That’s clear from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/09/politics/census-challenges/index.html">the controversies in the run-up to the 2020 census</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s less widely known how important the census has been in developing the U.S. computer industry, a story that I tell in my book, “<a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/republic-numbers">Republic of Numbers: Unexpected Stories of Mathematical Americans through History</a>.” That history includes the founding of the first automated data processing company, the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/herman-holleriths-tabulating-machine-2504989/">Tabulating Machine Company</a>, 125 years ago on December 3, 1896.</p>
<h2>Population growth</h2>
<p>The only use of the census clearly specified in the Constitution is to allocate seats in the House of Representatives. More populous states get more seats. </p>
<p>A minimalist interpretation of the census mission would require reporting only the overall population of each state. But the census has never confined itself to this.</p>
<p>A complicating factor emerged right at the beginning, with the Constitution’s distinction between “free persons” and “<a href="http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=3&psid=163">three-fifths of all other persons</a>.” This was the Founding Fathers’ infamous mealy-mouthed compromise between those states with a large number of enslaved persons and those states where relatively few lived. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/index_of_questions/1790_1.html">The first census</a>, in 1790, also made nonconstitutionally mandated distinctions by age and sex. In subsequent decades, many other personal attributes were probed as well: occupational status, marital status, educational status, place of birth and so on.</p>
<p>As the country grew, each census required greater effort than the last, not merely to collect the data but also to compile it into usable form. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24987147?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">The processing of the 1880 census</a> was not completed until 1888. </p>
<p>It had become a mind-numbingly boring, error-prone, clerical exercise of a magnitude rarely seen. </p>
<p>Since the population was evidently continuing to grow at a rapid pace, those with sufficient imagination could foresee that processing the 1890 census would be gruesome indeed without some change in procedure. </p>
<p><iframe id="1Onyi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1Onyi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A new invention</h2>
<p>John Shaw Billings, a physician assigned to assist the Census Office with compiling health statistics, had closely observed the immense tabulation efforts required to deal with the raw data of 1880. He expressed his concerns to a young mechanical engineer assisting with the census, Herman Hollerith, a recent graduate of the Columbia School of Mines. </p>
<p>On Sept. 23, 1884, the U.S. Patent Office recorded a submission from the 24-year-old Hollerith, titled “<a href="https://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=00395782&IDKey=73D9506C5930%0D%0A&HomeUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO1%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526d%3DPALL%2526p%3D1%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsrchnum.htm%2526r%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526s1%3D0395782.PN.%2526OS%3DPN%2F0395782%2526RS%3DPN%2F0395782">Art of Compiling Statistics</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an old black and white photograph showing a man seated at a wooden desk-like machine looking at a bank of indicator dials" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434755/original/file-20211130-19-16o80z7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hollerith electric tabulating machine in use in 1902.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/history/img/1902_Hollerith_electric_tabulating_machine.jpg">United States Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By progressively improving the ideas of this initial submission, Hollerith would decisively win an 1889 competition to improve the processing of the 1890 census. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/innovations/technology/the_hollerith_tabulator.html">technological solutions</a> devised by Hollerith involved a suite of mechanical and electrical devices. The first crucial innovation was to translate data on handwritten census tally sheets to patterns of holes punched in cards. As Hollerith phrased it, in the 1889 revision of his patent application,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“A hole is thus punched corresponding to person, then a hole according as person is a male or female, another recording whether native or foreign born, another either white or colored, &c.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This process required developing special machinery to ensure that holes could be punched with accuracy and efficiency. </p>
<p>Hollerith then devised a machine to “read” the card, by probing the card with pins, so that only where there was a hole would the pin pass through the card to make an electrical connection, resulting in advance of the appropriate counter. </p>
<p>For example, if a card for a white male farmer passed through the machine, a counter for each of these categories would be increased by one. The card was made sturdy enough to allow passage through the card reading machine multiple times, for counting different categories or checking results.</p>
<p>The count proceeded so rapidly that the <a href="https://play.google.com/books/reader?id=MGZqAAAAMAAJ&pg=GBS.PA1">state-by-state numbers needed for congressional apportionment</a> were certified before the end of November 1890. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292233/original/file-20190912-190021-1a7j7d1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This ‘mechanical punch card sorter’ was used for the 1950 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/photos/machinists_technicians_5.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rise of the punched card</h2>
<p>After his census success, <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/computer-a-history-of-the-information-machine/oclc/1110437971?referer=br&ht=edition">Hollerith went into business selling this technology</a>. The company he founded, the Tabulating Machine Company, would, after he retired, become International Business Machines - IBM. IBM led the way in perfecting card technology for recording and tabulating large sets of data for a variety of purposes. </p>
<p>By the 1930s, many businesses were using cards for record-keeping procedures, such as payroll and inventory. Some data-intensive scientists, especially astronomers, were also finding the cards convenient. IBM had by then standardized an 80-column card and had developed keypunch machines that would change little for decades. </p>
<p>Card processing became one leg of the mighty computer industry that blossomed after World War II, and IBM for a time would be the third-largest corporation in the world. Card processing served as a scaffolding for vastly more rapid and space-efficient purely electronic computers that now dominate, with little evidence remaining of the old regime. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1676&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1676&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292229/original/file-20190912-190061-1af81fk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1676&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A blue IBM punch card.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue-punch-card-front.png">Gwern/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those who have grown up knowing computers only as easily portable devices, to be communicated with by the touch of a finger or even by voice, may be unfamiliar with the room-size computers of the 1950s and ’60s, where the primary means of loading data and instructions was by creating a deck of cards at a keypunch machine, and then feeding that deck into a card reader. This persisted as the default procedure for many computers well into the 1980s. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/grace-hopper-navy-admiral-and-computer-pioneer/oclc/19516564&referer=brief_results">As computer pioneer Grace Murray Hopper recalled</a> about her early career, “Back in those days, everybody was using punched cards, and they thought they’d use punched cards forever.”</p>
<p>Hopper had been an important member of the team that created the first commercially viable general-purpose computer, the Universal Automatic Computer, or UNIVAC, one of the card-reading behemoths. Appropriately enough, the first UNIVAC delivered, in 1951, was to the U.S. Census Bureau, still hungry to improve its data processing capabilities.</p>
<p>No, computer users would not use punched cards forever, but they used them through the Apollo Moon-landing program and the height of the Cold War. Hollerith would likely have recognized the direct descendants of his 1890s census machinery almost 100 years later. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on October 15, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindsay Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the country grew, each census required greater effort than the last. That problem led to the invention of the punched card – and the birth of an industry.David Lindsay Roberts, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics, Prince George's Community CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1597802021-04-26T20:13:47Z2021-04-26T20:13:47ZCensus results shift political power in Congress, presidential elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397184/original/file-20210426-19-lgewyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C3456%2C2302&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The seats in the House chamber will be filled according to elections in the 50 states.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://historycms2.house.gov/assets/25769806856.asset">U.S. House of Representatives</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New data from the 2020 U.S. census released April 26, 2021, indicates that starting in 2023 – after the next congressional elections – seven states will have fewer seats in Congress than they do now, and six will have more. </p>
<p>These calculations and changes are the primary purpose of the government’s efforts every 10 years to count all the people who live in the United States. It’s <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S2-C3-1/ALDE_00001034/">written into the U.S. Constitution</a>. In addition, the number of House seats a state has helps determine the size of its delegation to the Electoral College, increasing or decreasing <a href="https://theconversation.com/whose-votes-count-the-least-in-the-electoral-college-74280">state residents’ power to pick the president</a>.</p>
<p>The seven states that each lost one seat in the House as a result of the 2020 census are California, from 53 to 52; Illinois, from 18 to 17; Michigan, from 14 to 13; New York, from 27 to 26; Ohio, from 16 to 15; Pennsylvania, from 18 to 17; and West Virginia, from 3 to 2.</p>
<p>The six states that gained one or more seats after the 2020 count are Colorado, from 7 to 8; Florida, from 27 to 28; Montana, from 1 to 2; North Carolina, from 13 to 14; Oregon, from 5 to 6; and Texas, which gained two, from 36 to 38.</p>
<p><iframe id="kvccD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kvccD/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who gets counted?</h2>
<p>During the census, the U.S. Census Bureau counts the number of people who live in each state on census day of the census year – in this case, April 1, 2020. </p>
<p>The bureau also counts <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/congressional-apportionment/about/faqs.html">all military and U.S. government employees</a> and their dependents who live overseas on that day – and determines which states they claim as their residences when in the U.S.</p>
<p>Any military personnel who are only temporarily deployed overseas are not counted where they live, but in the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/census-2020-will-change-the-way-military-overseas-are-counted-heres-who-wins-2020-04-01">states where the military bases from which they were deployed</a> are located.</p>
<p>Those numbers deliver a total number of people who live in each state, for apportionment purposes.</p>
<h2>Doing the calculations</h2>
<p>When determining how many seats a state gets, there are a few constraints. </p>
<p>First is that there are 435 seats and 50 states; the District of Columbia participates in the Electoral College, but gets only a <a href="https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/what-does-dcs-shadow-delegation-to-congress-actually-do/65-610751392">nonvoting delegate in Congress</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12230">states cannot get partial seats</a>. Because every state must get at least one seat, the first 50 seats are assigned automatically, one per state.</p>
<p>The Constitution does not specify the specific method of apportioning the rest of the congressional seats, but the underlying assumption is best summarized as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/adding-a-citizenship-question-to-the-2020-census-would-cost-some-states-their-congressional-seats-113166">one person, one vote</a>” – every person residing in every state should be included, and no person should have more of a voice than any other. </p>
<p>After the first 50, the 385 remaining seats are assigned according to a system called the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15225445.1921.10503487">Method of Equal Proportions</a>, first proposed in 1911 by a U.S. Census Bureau statistician named Joseph A. Hill. This method was first used in the apportionment based on the 1940 census, and has been used ever since. It is a <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/04/how-apportionment-is-calculated.html">statistical and mathematical series of calculations</a> that determines the priority order in which states receive second seats, third seats and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/highereducation/books/population-and-society/D2A98883FE1D04C2D0C0FAF09F211746#overview">additional seats beyond that</a>. </p>
<p>In states that have more than one congressional district, additional calculations will be necessary to determine the boundaries of each of those districts. Often that process is <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-didnt-lose-big-in-2020-they-held-onto-statehouses-and-the-power-to-influence-future-elections-150237">left up to state legislators</a>. The data needed for that next step will be available by Sept. 30, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said during a <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2021/2020-census-apportionment-counts.html">virtual press conference</a> announcing the apportionment results.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US Census Bureau has announced which states will gain and lose representation in Congress as a result of the 2020 census. Here’s how it makes the calculations.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1462762020-09-25T12:23:42Z2020-09-25T12:23:42ZVotes cast in November will shape Congress through 2030<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359435/original/file-20200922-24-8u06hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C0%2C3720%2C2478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A small sliver of a congressional district in Pennsylvania crossed four counties, on a map that was ruled to be a partisan gerrymandering plan.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedrawingAmericaImbalanceofPower/28384d0ebdd74ec7b7042d734c674edf/photo">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When voters cast their ballots in November, they won’t just decide who will be president in 2021 – they will also have a voice in determining the partisan makeup of Congress until 2030. Following each census, which happens every 10 years, states are required to <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/gerrymandering-fair-representation/redistricting/redistricting-2021">adjust their congressional district boundaries</a> to keep district populations <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/one-person_one-vote_rule">equal</a>.</p>
<p>District boundaries can profoundly shape election results – most notably when they are drawn in ways that <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-fix-gerrymandering-then-the-supreme-court-needs-to-listen-to-mathematicians-114345">benefit one political party or the other</a>.</p>
<p>In the 2011 redistricting after the 2010 census, for example, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/06/how-pennsylvania-republicans-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/">Pennsylvania’s Republican-led legislature</a> drew up districts that significantly disadvantaged Democrats. In the state’s 2012 congressional elections, Democrats won a majority of the votes, but <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-districts-supreme-court-20170814.html">Republicans won two-thirds of the state’s 18 seats</a> in Congress. Our research has found that similarly biased redistricting – called partisan gerrymandering – is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190934163.003.0005">common across the country</a>.</p>
<p>Most states give the power to draw new boundaries <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/redistricting-systems-a-50-state-overview.aspx">to their legislatures</a>. So when voters in November pick among the candidates for state legislatures, they are choosing <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-supreme-court-decision-gerrymandering-fix-is-up-to-voters-117307">the people who will make the new electoral maps</a>. That means the 2020 election will potentially affect the balance of power and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-gerrymandering-is-getting-worse-105182">degree of partisan conflict</a> in the House of Representatives for the next decade.</p>
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<h2>Legislators often draw biased lines</h2>
<p>In drawing new boundaries, state legislators usually have very few constraints. The U.S. Constitution requires that each congressional district should represent a <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articlei#section2">roughly equal number of people</a> – except in states with too few people to have multiple districts – Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. They all get at least one representative in Congress.</p>
<p>But other than that, state lawmakers make their own rules. So it’s not surprising that congressional district lines tend to unfairly advantage the party whose members are a majority of the group drawing the lines. </p>
<p>In the seven small, single-district states and the District of Columbia, this isn’t a problem because the state boundaries are also those of the congressional district. In five others – Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island – there are only enough people to warrant two congressional districts, making it statistically impossible to manipulate district boundaries to advantage one party.</p>
<p>But of the remaining 38 states, our analysis found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190934163.003.0005">22 created gerrymandered districts</a> that benefited one party or the other. Other political scientists have come to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/gerrymandering-in-america/C2A9A40879A353AC7484B49834CB54E4">similar conclusions</a> after their own analyses. This is true despite the natural, nongerrymandered <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00012033">tendency for like-minded people</a>, especially Democrats, to live near each other.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3988%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man points at two maps of Pennsylvania congressional districts." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3988%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359426/original/file-20200922-20-1f6g3qw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Pennsylvania civics teacher points at new and old congressional district maps in his state following a 2018 court decision.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedrawingAmericaImbalanceofPower/671099e5e981442a97794165df5f0bbc/photo">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span>
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<p>Most of the partisan gerrymandering created after the 2010 census benefited the Republican Party. That is because <a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_tim_storey/gop_makes_historic_state_legislative_gains_in_2010">Republicans won control of many state legislatures</a> in the 2010 elections, and then delivered congressional districts in their favor. </p>
<p>The bias from partisan gerrymandering was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12743">so high after the 2010 round of redistricting</a>, particularly in seven states – Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida – that the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html">2012 elections</a> produced a House of Representatives <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2017.0464">controlled by the Republican Party</a> even though Democratic congressional candidates won more votes nationwide. </p>
<p>The 2020 state legislative elections will be similarly decisive of who will control the redistricting process, and what congressional elections will look like for the next decade. </p>
<h2>Reforming the process</h2>
<p>There are efforts to fix the redistricting process. In 2019, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">effectively barred federal courts</a> from considering whether partisan gerrymanders are constitutional, so reformers must <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-supreme-court-decision-gerrymandering-fix-is-up-to-voters-117307">look elsewhere for a solution</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/schwarzenegger-and-obama-backing-redistricting-reform/580240/">Reform movements</a> are working to take control of district boundaries <a href="https://apnews.com/4d2e2aea7e224549af61699e51c955dd">out of the hands of legislators</a>. </p>
<p>Several states have pioneered ways to draw their congressional boundaries more fairly. In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment,_Proposal_1_(2014)">New York</a>, for instance, there is a commission that will advise lawmakers on potential maps that avoid partisan advantages. In <a href="https://azredistricting.org/default.asp">Arizona</a> and <a href="https://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/">California</a>, independent commissions have complete control over the district boundaries. </p>
<p>In New Jersey and Hawaii, commissions made up of politicians and political appointees draw the boundaries. And in three states – Connecticut, Indiana and Ohio – the legislature gets a first attempt to draw the boundaries, but must relinquish power to an independent commission if lawmakers can’t agree.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people point at a map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359428/original/file-20200922-24-zuldqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Two people discuss a detail of a district map at a 2011 meeting of Arizona’s nonpartisan redistricting commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedrawingAmericaImbalanceofPowerReforms/85e912b50b1f434a89effa37659ebe96/photo">AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin</a></span>
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<p>In some states, citizens have created independent redistricting commissions by popular referendum – through ballot propositions or initiatives – when legislators didn’t want to strip themselves of this key power. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/voters-are-stripping-partisan-redistricting-power-from-politicians-in-anti-gerrymandering-efforts/2018/11/07/2a239a5e-e1d9-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html">Colorado, Michigan</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Utah_Proposition_4,_Independent_Advisory_Commission_on_Redistricting_Initiative_(2018)">Utah</a> all did this in 2018. Voters in Virginia will be given an option in the 2020 election to <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Question_1,_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)">hand redistricting authority over to an independent commission</a>.</p>
<p>Our research and others’ has found that commissions of all types tend to <a href="https://doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2019-xgt3p">produce maps that are less biased</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/02/heres-how-fix-partisan-gerrymandering-now-that-supreme-court-kicked-it-back-states/">than legislative ones</a>.
However, redistricting reforms in some states are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/in-ballot-initiatives-they-made-their-voices-heard-then-came-the-backlash/2020/03/13/5b40220e-526e-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html">now facing</a> a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/redistricting-reform-under-threat">backlash</a> from state lawmakers who are attempting to reclaim power over the redistricting process through legislation, lawsuits or ballot measures of their own.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In presidential election years, the public is obviously focused on the race for the White House, but the decisions voters make in state legislative races affect the partisan composition of Congress for years to come. Without <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-supreme-court-decision-gerrymandering-fix-is-up-to-voters-117307">changes in who draws district lines</a>, the U.S. is likely to enter another decade in which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/26/yes-gerrymandering-is-getting-worse-and-will-get-worse-still-this-explains-why">congressional elections are shaped</a> not by everyday voters but by <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-gerrymandering-is-getting-worse-105182">those who hold the power</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When voters in November pick among the candidates for state legislatures, they are choosing the people who will make the new electoral maps for congressional elections.Robin E. Best, Associate Professor of Political Science, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkSteve B. Lem, Professor of Political Science and Public Administration, Kutztown University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1451522020-08-31T12:25:43Z2020-08-31T12:25:43ZShortened census count will hurt communities of color<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355187/original/file-20200827-24-l37sv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C18%2C4013%2C2999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Community groups, like this one in Phoenix, have been working to get people of color to contribute their information to the census.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/2020CensusBestLaidPlans/01fce68aaa8743b8bee855e67b4ede18/photo">AP Photo/Terry Tang</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau is having a harder time than in the past counting all Americans, and is now saying its workers will spend less time trying to count everyone.</p>
<p>In August, the Trump administration announced <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivering-complete-accurate-count.html">the plan to end the 2020 Census count a month early</a>, <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/08/11/shaheen-asks-for-watchdog-probe-into-census-bureau-schedule/">on Sept. 30</a> instead of Oct. 31. With about a month left before that new end date, <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html">fewer than two-thirds of U.S. households</a> have been counted so far.</p>
<p>The result will be that the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb12-95.html">census will count fewer</a> Black Americans, Indigenous peoples, Asian Americans and Americans of Hispanic or Latino origin <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/27/politics/trump-census-government-watchdog-high-risk/index.html">than actually live in the U.S.</a> That will mean less public money for essential services in their communities, and less representation by elected officials at the state and federal levels.</p>
<h2>An effort to find everyone</h2>
<p>Some people – including people of color, poorer people, rural residents and people who are not U.S. citizens – are <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf">less likely to respond to the census</a>. In part, that’s because they have less convenient access to the mail, telephone and online services needed to respond to the survey. </p>
<p>In addition, some communities <a href="https://aapidata.com/blog/census2020-asian-am-problem/">distrust the system</a>. Among Japanese Americans, that distrust is because they recall how <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/04/03/secret-use-of-census-info-helped-send-japanese-americans-to-internment-camps-in-wwii/">census data was used to round up Japanese Americans</a> for internment during World War II.</p>
<p>The Census Bureau starts the census by asking Americans to respond themselves. But for those who don’t respond, there is a second phase of counting, in which census workers fan out across the country to knock on doors and help people include themselves in the national count. </p>
<p>For 2020, this second phase was originally planned to begin on May 13, but the pandemic delayed its start until Aug. 9. With the advanced end date, there will be only 52 days to count the residents of more than one-third of all the <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/HSD410218">estimated 120 million households</a> in the U.S. In 2010, the in-person follow-up effort <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/2010-background-crs.pdf">had 71 days</a> to cover a <a href="https://gc.cuny.edu/Page-Elements/Academics-Research-Centers-Initiatives/Centers-and-Institutes/Center-for-Urban-Research/CUR-research-initiatives/Census-Self-Response-Rates-Mapped-and-Analyzed-2000,-2010,-and-(soon)-2020">smaller share of American households</a>.</p>
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<h2>Missing people of color</h2>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/planning-management/planning-docs/operational-plan.html">before the delayed beginning and the shortening</a> of the second phase, the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, <a href="https://apps.urban.org/features/2020-census/">projected that the census results would systematically undercount</a> racial minorities and people of Hispanic or Latino origin.</p>
<p>All communities of color were projected to be underrepresented in the count – meaning the Census Bureau would report fewer people of that racial or ethnic background than actually live in the U.S. The biggest undercount projection was for Black Americans: The <a href="https://apps.urban.org/features/2020-census/">Urban Institute projected the census would fail to count</a> 3.2%, or more than 1.5 million. The census was expected to miss more than 1.7 million people of Hispanic and Latino origin, 2.8% of their real total. More than 1 in 100 people of Alaska Native or American Indian background would not be counted, and a similar share of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders.</p>
<p>But these detailed estimates of how many people the census might miss do not make it easier to somehow correct the count. The Census Bureau does <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement.html">extensive work to account for errors and missing people</a>, but only after looking at the entire response and conducting additional research. Complete census data also includes <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/about-questions.html">people’s ages, genders, whether they own or rent their homes</a> and whether they have other racial or ethnic backgrounds. The smaller those errors are, the more accurate the data will be.</p>
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<h2>Hurting people on tribal lands the most</h2>
<p>The shortened timeline for counting will be especially hard on <a href="https://www.aisc.ucla.edu/news/akee_census2020.aspx">Alaska Native and American Indian peoples on tribal lands</a>, who have <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/census-coronavirus-native-americans/">historically low response rates</a>, in part because of longstanding distrust of the U.S. government, which has a history of <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-upholds-american-indian-treaty-promises-orders-oklahoma-to-follow-federal-law-142459">violating treaties</a> and <a href="https://www.usccr.gov/pubs/2018/12-20-Broken-Promises.pdf">imposing other injustices</a> on Indigenous peoples.</p>
<p>In 2010, for instance, only <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html">29.4% of residents of Navajo Nation lands responded</a> to the census. At least so far in 2020, it’s even lower. For instance, as of August 28, just <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html">17.9% of Navajo Nation residents</a> have responded – and only 3.6% of the community used the internet to do so.</p>
<p>According to the latest government data, <a href="https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=S25&g=0100000US_2500000US2430&tid=ACSST5Y2018.S2504&hidePreview=true">14.1% of households on the Navajo Nation reservation do not have telephone service</a>, and <a href="https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=S25&g=0100000US_2500000US2430&tid=ACSST5Y2018.S2504&hidePreview=true">71.5% of them don’t have internet service</a>. That’s compared with 2.2% of all U.S. households lacking phone service and 14.7% lacking internet service.</p>
<p>The low Navajo Nation response rate could be due to several other reasons, too. Many Navajo Nation households <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/2019/10/06/some-native-americans-no/">have no formal home address</a>. Instead, they get their mail at post office boxes, which in some cases can be <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/experts-worry-push-2020-mail-voting-leave-native/story?id=70411683">70 miles from their homes</a>. That’s difficult, and expensive, to do – and may involve violating the Navajo Nation’s <a href="https://www.ndoh.navajo-nsn.gov/Portals/0/PDF/PHE/NDOH%20Public%20Health%20Emergency%20Order%202020-021%20Dikos%20Ntsaaigii-19.pdf">COVID-19 public health emergency curfew orders</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A mother and daughter sit outside their home on the Navajo Nation reservation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355191/original/file-20200827-20-1sw6xxg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People who live in the Navajo Nation’s reservation live far from mail service, and often lack telephone and internet service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakNavajoNation/80316ffea4f64337b34ca1a9c2c205b1/photo">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Long-term effects of undercounts</h2>
<p>Census data is used to determine how many members of Congress a state should have and to draw boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts. If the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/27/us/politics/census-citizenship-question.html">census records too few people</a> in communities of color, those people will have <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/news-events/operational-adjustments-covid-19.html">fewer representatives</a> in government, and <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-changes-2020-census-timeline-will-impact-redistricting">less power to choose them</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, census data is used to allocate billions of dollars in public spending by states and the federal government. Communities that are larger than their official count registers will receive <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2020/5/12/21250766/census-2020-undercount-black-latino-asian">smaller amounts than they should</a> of taxpayer money that provides education, health care and transportation to their residents. </p>
<p>Communities that are home to Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders are particularly sensitive to these effects because these groups are numerically small. So any one person not counted represents a larger proportion of the community as a whole, and a larger share of money and representation deserved but not received.</p>
<p>If these errors are allowed to happen – and made worse by a shorter timeline – their effects on Americans will last an entire decade, until the 2030 Census is completed.</p>
<p><em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census? We have designed an email course, which will send five informative emails straight to your inbox for three weeks. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here to learn more about how the census affects your community</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145152/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aggie Yellow Horse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The census will likely count fewer Black Americans, Indigenous peoples, Asian Americans and Americans of Hispanic or Latino origin than there actually are.Aggie Yellow Horse, Assistant Professor of Asian Pacific American Studies and Justice and Social Inquiry, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1395382020-06-17T12:17:59Z2020-06-17T12:17:59ZPandemic, privacy rules add to worries over 2020 census accuracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341683/original/file-20200614-153822-fta1ee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C59%2C7916%2C5237&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The pandemic has stretched out the amount of time the census is being conducted, contributing to worries over accuracy. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/douglas-carrasquell-of-the-organization-make-the-road-new-news-photo/1209110423?adppopup=true">Kena Benakur/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the Census Bureau, the timing of national shutdowns due to the pandemic could not have been much worse. </p>
<p>Stay-at-home orders in March coincided with the period when millions of Americans received their census questionnaires in the mail. But large numbers of Americans moved from where they normally live to somewhere else – in with relatives with spare rooms, <a href="https://theconversation.com/students-could-be-undercounted-in-the-census-as-coronavirus-closes-colleges-heres-why-that-matters-133889">back home from college</a> or even <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-prisoners-soldiers-and-mormon-missionaries-make-the-census-more-complicated-130107">released from prisons</a>. These highly unusual circumstances are likely to result in failures to count, double-counting or counting in the wrong place portions of the population.</p>
<p>Disruption from the pandemic adds to existing worries around the accuracy of this year’s census data, including the introduction of a technique to <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2020-will-protect-your-privacy-more-than-ever-but-at-the-price-of-accuracy-130116">protect residents’ privacy</a> and a potentially <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-undercounts-are-normal-but-demographers-worry-this-year-could-be-worse-133140">low response rate</a> stemming from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-americans-dont-trust-the-census-130109">distrust in the government</a>. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://demographics.coopercenter.org/profile/qian-cai">demographer</a> working with local governments, businesses and nonprofits, and this combination of factors makes me deeply concerned about how accurate census data will be when it’s released in 2021.</p>
<p>Communities rely on accurate data for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-2020-census-matters-for-rural-americans-118988">range of essential services</a>, whether it’s determining the needs for hospital beds and vaccine doses, social programs for seniors or the unemployed, or evaluating wide-ranging health, economic and social impacts of the pandemic.</p>
<h2>Good data in</h2>
<p>People who work with statistics know that there needs to be “good data in” in order to get “good data out.” In the context of the census, good data in means “<a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/director/2018/11/counting_everyoneon.html">counting everyone once, only once, and in the right place</a>.” The decennial census gathers data from every household in the nation to accomplish this enormous undertaking. </p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 Census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-emails-72">Sign up for a brief course by email</a>.]</p>
<p>People are supposed to report where they were living on April 1. Yet many left their usual residences to move in with <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/coronavirus-milennial-parents-roommates-isolation">parents</a>, adult children, other relatives or <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8230903/The-rise-quaranteaming-People-temporarily-moving-friends-pandemic.html">friends</a>; some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=2">fled</a> to second homes; nearly <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/183995/us-college-enrollment-and-projections-in-public-and-private-institutions/">20 million</a> college students vacated dorms or apartments; <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/here-is-how-many-prisoners-have-been-released-covid-19">tens of thousands</a> of inmates were granted early release; and nursing homes experienced <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/#403c99e674cd">high death rates</a> from COVID-19, leading to no responses from deceased people who should have been counted on April 1. </p>
<p>The pandemic led the U.S. Census Bureau to extend the deadline for gathering data <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/statement-covid-19-2020.html">from July to October</a>. Prolonging the census-taking period may generate confusion about where and how people should be counted. This may introduce an increased number of recollection <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/11941/chapter/4">errors</a>, diminishing data accuracy.</p>
<p>Further, Census Bureau field operations <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/update-on-2020-census-field-operations.html">suspended in late March</a>, and only recently resumed a gradual reengagement. In August, census takers will begin to knock on the doors of about one-third of the households nationwide that have not answered the census. But it may be harder to get complete and accurate information this year if people are reluctant to speak with census takers in person over health and safety concerns around the pandemic. </p>
<p>Finally, the Trump administration’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-undocumented-immigrants-still-fear-the-2020-census-132842">positions on immigration may further depress participation</a> or distort results. Nearly 14% of the U.S. population are foreign-born, and more than 80% of the foreign-born are racial/ethnic minorities from Latin America, Asia and Africa, according to my calculations from the Census Bureau’s latest American Community Survey data. The administration’s proposed citizenship question was eventually scrapped from the 2020 census, but in its place Trump signed an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-collecting-information-citizenship-status-connection-decennial-census/">executive order</a> to collect information about citizenship status through other means. <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article240622157.html">Fear</a> remains, not only among immigrants and their families, but also among naturalized as well as U.S.-born citizens with immigrant parents. This, in addition to the announcement of a plan <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/politics/trump-immigration.html">to close U.S. borders</a> in late April because of the pandemic, sent unsettling signals and may further diminish census participation.</p>
<p>In short, both pandemic and policy-related forces threaten the goal of getting good data in.</p>
<h2>Good data out</h2>
<p>“Good data out” means that the data collected by the census is carefully processed and truthfully reported. Census results are the benchmark for federal, state and local data and the gold standard for what we can know about the country’s residents.</p>
<p>The Census Bureau is obligated to prioritize both data accuracy and individual privacy protection. In order to achieve near-absolute privacy protection, the bureau is implementing a new data processing measure called “<a href="https://www2.census.gov/about/cic/Differential%20Privacy.pdf">differential privacy</a>,” which distorts community data including age, gender, race/ethnicity, relationship, family type, homeownership, household size and vacancy rate. By reporting numbers that are distorted, the technique is designed to make it harder to identify specific individuals, particularly by combining census data with other sources of information.</p>
<p>National and state totals will be reported accurately, which is critical for congressional apportionment. But the process of shuffling data to protect privacy at county, city and town levels as well as among different age or racial groups means the data will be incoherent or even <a href="https://www.richmond.com/opinion/columnists/qian-cai-column-the-census-citizenship-question-was-bad-this-is-worse/article_678e607c-8004-529c-9089-ae5e930990e7.html">erroneous</a>. </p>
<p>Bad data will have bad consequences. For example, next year when health officials use the fresh census data to determine COVID-19 death rates among the African American population, they need to divide the total number of deaths of African Americans from COVID-19 in a given jurisdiction by the total African American population there. Because of differential privacy, the denominator with the local African American population from the census will not be accurate, and as a result, there could be wildly inconsistent or even implausible results.</p>
<p>Census Bureau officials have said that injecting “noise” into the data is <a href="https://www.census.gov/about/policies/privacy/statistical_safeguards/disclosure-avoidance-2020-census.html">needed to ensure privacy</a>, and that the technique gives data scientists <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/research-matters/2019/10/balancing_privacyan.html">a good understanding of the level of uncertainty in the data</a>. But other researchers have shown differential privacy to be <a href="http://www.jetlaw.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Bambauer_Final.pdf">ill-suited</a>, harmful, <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1809.02201.pdf">untested and unproven</a>.</p>
<p>Similar to an athletic team’s record bearing an asterisk marking a sullied season, the 2020 census will bear the unfortunate impact of the pandemic. Much is beyond the Census Bureau’s control, but this decennial census will also carry a second asterisk, due to Census Bureau decisions to <a href="https://theconversation.com/census-2020-will-protect-your-privacy-more-than-ever-but-at-the-price-of-accuracy-130116">trade data accuracy for privacy</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Concerned about the Census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-emails-72">Learn about the history and challenges by email</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Qian Cai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An accurate census requires good data in and good data out. With the 2020 census, the US has unprecedented challenges with both.Qian Cai, Research Director of Demographics Research Group, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301162020-04-06T12:05:42Z2020-04-06T12:05:42ZCensus 2020 will protect your privacy more than ever – but at the price of accuracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325356/original/file-20200403-74235-lf13kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C23%2C5177%2C3417&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seattle residents walk past a wall of posters encouraging Americans to fill out their census forms.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/2020-Census-Virus-Outbreak/1cefa7aed9854e0d8ccc8d06958e27a0/3/0">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Census data can be pretty sensitive – it’s not just how many people live in a neighborhood, a town, a state or the nation as a whole. Every 10 years, the Census Bureau <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/about-questions.html">asks about people’s ages</a>, racial and ethnic backgrounds, personal relationships to others they live with and more. It’s information many people don’t share with neighbors or co-workers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-americans-dont-trust-the-census-130109">much less the federal government</a>. </p>
<p>People who don’t trust the Census Bureau to keep their data private and secure will be <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/history-privacy-protection102019.pdf">less likely to answer truthfully</a> – or answer at all. </p>
<p>Federal laws bar the bureau and its employees <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/13/9">from sharing data with anyone</a>, including other government agencies like police and the IRS. And the Census Bureau is taking new steps to protect the 2020 census data even more.</p>
<p>Census data can be published only as collections of statistics, but in an age where so many companies are collecting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/28/all-the-data-facebook-google-has-on-you-privacy">so much data about people</a>, even anonymized statistics can present a privacy risk. Using some of this commercial data, census researchers conducted a simulated attack on their data and were able to match <a href="http://blogs.cornell.edu/abowd/special-materials/245-2/">as many as 17% of the people</a> who responded to the 2010 census.</p>
<p>The new protections, however, are raising concerns among community advocates, government officials and scholars who note that the method the Census Bureau is using to increase privacy makes the results less accurate. They worry a more private census <a href="https://assets.ipums.org/_files/mpc/privacy.pdf">may be less useful</a>.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AUVylbIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">geographer</a> who studies how to make and use geographic data, I have been involved over the past decade in efforts to <a href="https://sites.nationalacademies.org/DBASSE/CNSTAT/Reengineering_Census_Operations/index.htm">modernize the 2020 census</a> and make it more cost-effective. I see the importance of striking a balance between protecting our privacy and having accurate statistics for data-based decision-making.</p>
<h2>An engine of government and the economy</h2>
<p>The main purpose of the census, according to the clause of the Constitution that requires it to happen every 10 years, is to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articlei#section2">count the number of people living in each state</a>, to determine how many members of the House of Representatives each state should get. </p>
<p>That’s easy enough, and could be done without collecting or publishing any personal data at all. But a survey that is supposed to reach every household in the country presents a rare opportunity to ask other questions too. So, from the very <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/overview/1790.html">first one in 1790</a>, the census has counted more than just noses. </p>
<p>The information it collects – including ages, racial and ethnic information and home ownership rates – helps determine how the federal government allocates <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/blog/2019/11/22/report-census-data-key-to-15-trillion-in-federal-spending.aspx">US$1.5 trillion in spending</a> every year. States, local governments, researchers and businesses also rely on census data to make spending plans and analyze community characteristics. </p>
<p>The U.S. has one of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-census-business-insight/companies-warn-trump-census-citizenship-question-could-be-costly-idUSKCN1RT17M">most accurate and reliable censuses</a> in the world. The resulting data has played a meaningful part in creating the economic prosperity and growth of the United States.</p>
<h2>Data science breaks privacy protections</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau – and most statistical analysts too – used to think that people’s privacy was protected by aggregating data together in large numbers. So the focus was on protecting privacy in <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2018/adrm/Disclosure%20Avoidance%20for%20the%201970-2010%20Censuses.pdf">small populations</a>. Instead of saying, for instance, there were two Hispanic people in a particular neighborhood, the census data would say there were less than three.</p>
<p>In other cases, the Census Bureau computers <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2018/adrm/Disclosure%20Avoidance%20for%20the%201970-2010%20Censuses.pdf">swapped the numbers for households</a> in different geographic areas, to mix up the data just a bit. Those changes were minor and didn’t make significant changes to the overall accuracy of the data.</p>
<p>As recently as 2012, scholarly research determined that the risks of revealing one person’s private information in census data was small, <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6297917">as low as 0.04%</a>. But just a few years later, new research <a href="http://blogs.cornell.edu/abowd/special-materials/245-2/">turned that finding upside-down</a>.</p>
<p>In 2017 and 2018, the Census Bureau found that a data scientist who had access to commercial and public databases could match that information up with census statistics in a way that could identify <a href="http://blogs.cornell.edu/abowd/special-materials/245-2/">as many as 17% of Americans</a> who had completed the 2010 census.</p>
<p>That level of vulnerability was unacceptable to census officials, and the race was on to create better protections in time for the next census.</p>
<h2>What is differential privacy?</h2>
<p>After <a href="https://ecommons.cornell.edu/handle/1813/60392">research and debate</a>, the Census Bureau announced it would adopt a method called “<a href="https://www.census.gov/about/policies/privacy/statistical_safeguards.html">differential privacy</a>” to protect respondents’ data in the 2020 census.</p>
<p>One of the challenges for officials and scholars like me is that the system is very hard to explain. It’s so complicated that even the scholar who invented it, <a href="https://datascience.harvard.edu/people/cynthia-dwork">Harvard computer scientist Cynthia Dwork</a>, has admitted that “<a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-03-05/algorithm-could-keep-your-census-data-future-proof">It’s a dream of mine</a> to learn how to really explain this so that it’s widely accessible.”</p>
<p>In a nutshell, differential privacy involves not reporting exactly accurate numbers – like “5 people in Bigtown City are Hispanic males” – but rather a random number relatively close to the accurate one, like 11. These random errors make it much harder for a data scientist to go back and figure out which Hispanic male in that city might be connected with a specific public record. And the public has some information, though it’s not exactly accurate or complete.</p>
<p>The system is so complex because it must make sure that all the randomly generated approximations make sense with each other. For example, the number of males plus the number of females must equal the total number of people. And the sum of all county populations in Tennessee must equal the state population of Tennessee. </p>
<p>In addition, to satisfy constitutional requirements, the total population of each state must be exactly correct – not adjusted by differential privacy at all – even though city and county totals may have quite a bit of randomness in them.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1147265434267336714"}"></div></p>
<h2>A troubling shift</h2>
<p>The idea of intentionally adding errors to data is a dramatic change for the census. To help users understand the new method, the Census Bureau produced a test data set, applying differential privacy to the 2010 census results.</p>
<p>I was one of the group of experts who <a href="https://sites.nationalacademies.org/DBASSE/CNSTAT/DBASSE_196518">analyzed the test data</a>. Some of what we found was reassuring: State population counts are, by design, completely accurate. And estimates for large populations – like the number of 20-year-olds in Virginia, or the number of Hispanic people in Los Angeles – are relatively accurate.</p>
<p>But much of what we found was shocking. Small counts are often unacceptably wrong. In the most extreme case, tiny Kalawao County, Hawaii, a former leper colony that is only accessible by air, sea or mule, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/06/opinion/census-algorithm-privacy.html">had so much randomness added that its population jumped from 90 to 716</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="bXCPi" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bXCPi/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_197492.pdf">My research group’s findings</a> in Tennessee, where I live and work, showed that these errors could have big effects on local governments. For example, the state of Tennessee uses the census <a href="https://www.mtas.tennessee.edu/reference/state-shared-taxes-and-appropriations-coming-fiscal-year">to determine how much money from sales, alcohol and gas taxes</a> to send back to towns. In a typical year, the state sends about $120 per person to each town. </p>
<p>However, the randomness of differential privacy would have created a virtual lottery, with towns receiving <a href="https://www.mtas.tennessee.edu/reference/state-shared-taxes-and-appropriations-coming-fiscal-year">anywhere from $80 to $180 per person</a>, instead of an even $120 for everyone. For small rural communities, this could make the difference of whether to repave Main Street or whether to lay off a full-time police officer. </p>
<p>Other disturbing <a href="https://sites.nationalacademies.org/DBASSE/CNSTAT/DBASSE_196518">findings include</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>a consistently low count of the number of Native Americans living on reservations,</li>
<li>a consistently inaccurate increase in the population of rural congressional districts,</li>
<li>many counties with statistics that are implausible, like that there are no vacant homes at all, and</li>
<li>many counties with more households than people, which is impossible.</li>
</ul>
<p>The general consensus of many experts present was that the test data, protected by differential privacy, <a href="http://www.populationassociation.org/2020/03/02/assessing-the-use-of-differential-privacy-for-the-2020-census/">are not fit for many uses</a>, including some required by state and federal laws. </p>
<h2>Time is running out</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau is responding to the criticism raised by the experts, and <a href="https://www2.census.gov/about/policies/2020-03-05-differential-privacy.pdf">recent census reports</a> acknowledge that the test results deliver unacceptably inaccurate figures for small towns and for the count of Native Americans living on reservations. However, returning to the old methods is no longer being discussed as an option.</p>
<p>It’s unclear how the Census Bureau might untangle this mess in a way that yields both reliable statistics and reasonable privacy protection. The first deadline to publish small area statistics is <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/important-dates.html">March 31, 2021</a>, when the congressional redistricting data are released.</p>
<p>What happens between now and then will determine whether the Census Bureau can solve the problem – and convince officials, researchers and analysts that its solution is, in fact, useful for all the other purposes census data serve.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas N. Nagle works for the University of Tennessee. He currently receives funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Sloan Foundation. </span></em></p>It’s important to strike a balance between protecting Americans’ privacy and having accurate statistics for governments and businesses to make data-based decisions.Nicholas N. Nagle, Associate Professor of Geography, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1331402020-04-03T12:41:23Z2020-04-03T12:41:23ZCensus undercounts are normal, but demographers worry this year could be worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322665/original/file-20200324-155640-1wrjz3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C117%2C3927%2C2351&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Census Campaign executive director Victoria Kovari looks over a Detroit map showing city neighborhoods that were undercounted in the 2010 census.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Census-Hard-to-Count/16d20d826a99454c9e7d83fc26e02636/9/0">AP Photo/Corey Williams</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Researchers have long known that certain groups are vulnerable <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/studies/government/2020-census-research-undercount/">to being undercounted</a> in the decennial census. But the 2020 census has raised a <a href="https://www.urban.org/research/publication/eve-2020-census-many-people-hard-count-groups-remain-concerned-about-participating">new set of concerns</a> around hard-to-count populations and <a href="https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/confusion-surrounds-2020-census-survey-finds-no-there-will-not-be-citizenship-question#stream/0">general confusion with the process</a>. The coronavirus pandemic only adds more uncertainty. Demographer <a href="https://expertfile.com/experts/rebecca.tippettphd">Rebecca Tippett</a> explains the factors at play.</em></p>
<h2>A long history</h2>
<p>Historically, communities that have been more likely to be undercounted in the census include <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/research-testing/undercount-of-young-children.html">young children</a>, renters and <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/100324/assessing_miscounts_in_the_2020_census_1.pdf">American Indian, Hispanic and black households</a>. </p>
<p>Populations can be hard to count for many reasons. Some people don’t wish to be found, while others may be hard to contact because they live in gated communities. Others may be hard to interview, due to low literacy or limited English. Finally, some individuals are hard to persuade. They may be actively <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-americans-dont-trust-the-census-130109">suspicious of the government</a> or see no benefit to participating in the census. These reasons may be overlapping, so the Census Bureau needs many different outreach strategies to ensure a complete count.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322620/original/file-20200324-141843-qayuqh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-response rates to the 2010 census varied substantially (blue means higher response rate, tan means lower). Not pictured are Hawaii, which averaged between 62% and 66%; and Alaska, which averaged between 54% and 58%. The national average was 74%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/">Map by Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York / Graduate Center, with support from the 2020 Census Project.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A lot at stake</h2>
<p>It’s worth noting that the 2010 census was remarkably accurate overall: The bureau estimated a net overcount of 0.01%, or an extra <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb12-95.html">36,000 people counted in the census</a> out of the entire U.S. population of 330 million. </p>
<p>Coverage varied significantly by race and Hispanic origin. White non-Hispanic Americans were more likely to be overcounted (0.8%). Meanwhile, the bureau estimated an undercount of 2.1% among the black population, 1.5% among the Hispanic or Latino population and 4.9% among American Indians living on reservations.</p>
<p><iframe id="RrVdd" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RrVdd/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Among age groups, young children were most likely to be missed: <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/planning-management/final-analysis/2020-report-2010-undercount-children-complex-households.html">4.6% of children ages 0 to 4 were not counted in the 2010 census</a>.</p>
<p>These undercounts matter because the population is not evenly divided. When certain groups are more likely to be undercounted, their communities are at risk of having lower-quality data and less than their fair share of political representation and funding for the next decade. Communities have only one shot to count all of their residents; the results of this census will have impacts for the next decade.</p>
<h2>Chill from aborted citizenship question</h2>
<p>In April of 2018, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced that the 2020 census would include a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-census-question-about-citizenship-should-worry-you-whether-youre-a-citizen-or-not-94221">question on whether a person was a citizen of the U.S.</a> A <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-supreme-court-asked-for-an-explanation-of-the-2020-census-citizenship-question-119567">controversy</a> and lawsuit ensued. The Supreme Court ultimately ruled that the administration’s reasoning was inadequate and <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/four-takeaways-supreme-courts-census-citizenship-question-ruling">barred the question from being added</a>.</p>
<p>Still, census advocates remain concerned that the introduction of the citizenship question and subsequent political battle could have a <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2020/02/17/census-bureau-spends-millions-on-ads-combating-citizenship-question-scare-1261801">chilling effect on participation</a> – even though the question is not on the census. And this impact would be widespread: <a href="https://www.prb.org/citizenship-question-risks-a-2020-census-undercount-in-every-state-especially-among-children/">Nearly one in 10 households in the United States contains at least one noncitizen</a>.</p>
<h2>New online worries</h2>
<p>Starting March 12, households began receiving the invitation to respond online or to complete the census form. Ideally, the online form will make it easier for people to respond and help reduce the costs of conducting the census. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/24/for-2020-census-bureau-plans-to-trade-paper-responses-for-digital-ones/">The bureau’s goal is for 55% of households to respond online</a>. While the push to have individuals respond online is new for this census, the Census Bureau has experience collecting online responses for its ongoing <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/respond/respond-online.html">American Community Survey</a>.</p>
<p>However, the push to online response raises new concerns. Namely: <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/us-census-2020-goes-digital/">cybersecurity and hacking</a>. Counting the nearly 330 million Americans where they live on April 1, 2020 is a massive undertaking. If the technology does not perform well when people go online to respond, it could hamper overall response rates. According to a <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/02/20/responding-to-the-census-online/">survey by the Pew Research Center</a>, 60% of Americans prefer an online census; data security concerns were high among those who preferred to submit the census by mail or phone.</p>
<h2>Underfunding</h2>
<p>Planning for the decennial census is a huge undertaking. Preparation begins long before April 1, 2020, and funding is necessary to ensure everything can be developed and tested prior to Census Day. </p>
<p>The Census Bureau was asked <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/team-trump-warns-congress-it-will-take-billions-more-run-2020-census">by Congress</a> to limit costs of this census and proposed multiple technological innovations to reduce costs and maintain quality. Due to <a href="https://www2.census.gov/cac/nac/meetings/2017-11/fontenot-2020-census.pdf">chronic underfunding throughout the decade</a>, these innovations were <a href="https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/2020_decennial_census/why_did_study">not fully tested in a 2018 operational test</a>. Some <a href="https://civilrights.org/resource/leadership-conference-comments-census-bureaus-end-end-test-peak-operations/">elements that were not fully evaluated</a> were new update/enumerate methods planned for remote Alaska and some American Indian reservations; new protocols for counting people who live in group quarters (dorms, military barracks and prisons); and new residence criteria for deployed military members.</p>
<h2>Pandemic wild card</h2>
<p>Having the ability to count people by mail and online <a href="https://qz.com/1812717/the-us-census-has-built-in-resistance-to-coronavirus/">softens the impact of the coronavirus pandemic</a>, but it has already affected operations. Earlier this month, the Census Bureau announced that it will delay the start of its field operations – hiring and training workers to go to households – for two weeks, until April 1. </p>
<p>The pandemic has forced millions of college students to leave college and finish their semesters at home. As a result, those students will be counted at home, rather than at their colleges and universities. Because census data is used to determine federal funding in many areas, this shift could have a direct impact on <a href="https://theconversation.com/students-could-be-undercounted-in-the-census-as-coronavirus-closes-colleges-heres-why-that-matters-133889">college towns</a>.</p>
<p>Census Bureau workers will not start going door to door to follow up with nonresponding households until May. This means individuals have more than six weeks to respond online or by paper without ever having to interact with someone face to face. But there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the spread of the pandemic, so its impact on <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/news-events/press-releases/operational-updates.html">follow-up procedures remains unclear</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Tippett is the Board Chair of the NC Counts Coalition, an organization dedicated to achieving a complete and accurate Census count for North Carolina.
</span></em></p>How accurate will the 2020 census be? A demographer explains which communities are hard to count, how the coronavirus could affect the process and what’s at stake.Rebecca Tippett, Director of Carolina Demography, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1328422020-04-02T12:33:41Z2020-04-02T12:33:41ZWhy undocumented immigrants still fear the 2020 census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322397/original/file-20200323-112683-1lg51o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Undocumented immigrants are at risk of an undercount in 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/photos/2020/how-you-can-respond.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States might not be able to get information about more than 10 million people in the 2020 census. </p>
<p>That’s the number of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/12/how-pew-research-center-counts-unauthorized-immigrants-in-us/">undocumented immigrants</a> living in the United States. Another 16.7 million individuals live in a household with an undocumented member and so might also not be counted in this year’s census.</p>
<p>The primary reason that undocumented immigrants might forego participation in the 2020 census? <a href="https://www.kff.org/disparities-policy/issue-brief/living-in-an-immigrant-family-in-america-how-fear-and-toxic-stress-are-affecting-daily-life-well-being-health/">Fear</a>. </p>
<p>Fear of being found by immigration enforcement authorities. Fear of being detained to face a deportation hearing. And, ultimately, fear of being deported. </p>
<p>If data is missing from the 2020 census, that will harm <a href="https://www.prb.org/importance-of-us-census/">national and community planning efforts</a>.</p>
<h2>Fear of deportation</h2>
<p>The fear of being deported to one’s home country extends well beyond wanting to remain in the United States to simply have a better life.</p>
<p>A large proportion of recently arrived undocumented immigrants are from the northern triangle regions of Central America that include El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Though approximately <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2331502420906125">1.2 million Mexican immigrants in the U.S. returned</a> to their home nation between 2010 and 2018, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF11151.pdf">an estimated 265,000 Central Americans</a> are fleeing annually to the United States, due to <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/murder-rate-by-country/">extreme violence and high murder rates</a>. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/us-citizen-children-impacted-immigration-enforcement">4.1 million U.S. citizen children</a> who have an undocumented parent. Deported parents will often protect their children by leaving them behind in the U.S. This potential, and likely permanent, separation feeds the fear endured by undocumented immigrant parents.</p>
<p>Increased <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/federal-action-on-immigration-2017-2018.aspx">immigration enforcement policies</a> and <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2019/07/11/cities-states-brace-for-immigration-raids">threats</a> of more raids and detentions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have escalated the fear associated with deportation. </p>
<p>In two qualitative studies that colleagues and I conducted with health and social service providers serving documented and undocumented Latinx immigrants in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs40615-020-00714-w">Texas</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10437797.2018.1486256">Tennessee</a>, fear of detention and deportation emerged as a consistent component of immigrants’ daily lives. </p>
<p>Fear was described as so intense that undocumented immigrants avoid using medical or social services, even when their children have known medical needs. Texas providers reported that parents are unwilling to share their home addresses, since permitting outsiders into one’s home can pose risk of detection and, ultimately, deportation.</p>
<h2>Census effects</h2>
<p>Despite the mandated <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/privacy_confidentiality/title_13_us_code.html">protections</a> that prevent the U.S. Census Bureau from sharing information with law enforcement or other government organizations, <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2019/cbams-faqs.pdf">fear and lack of trust</a> of the government could very well supersede undocumented immigrants’ willingness to participate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www2.census.gov/cac/nac/meetings/2017-11/Memo-Regarding-Respondent-Confidentiality-Concerns.pdf">Interviews and focus groups</a> conducted by the Census Bureau suggest that immigrants fear their responses would be used to identify and penalize them or their undocumented household members.</p>
<p>Furthermore, among those who do participate, data might be <a href="https://www2.census.gov/cac/nac/meetings/2017-11/Memo-Regarding-Respondent-Confidentiality-Concerns.pdf">incomplete or inaccurate</a> as a result of fear. For example, evidence suggests that proposals to include a <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mbaum/files/baum_et_al_citizenship_question.pdf">citizenship question</a>, though ultimately thrown out by the Supreme Court, would possibly result in more unanswered questions related to age, race and Latinx household members on the census, especially among individuals who were born in Mexico or Central America.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322395/original/file-20200323-112712-jhmtyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A worker gets ready to pass out instructions in how fill out the 2020 census during a town hall meeting in Lithonia, Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/2020-Census/74def17e68d7445e874c5b16736c7a2e/8/0">AP Photo/John Amis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Counting matters</h2>
<p>How might these high levels of fear influence the 2020 census? </p>
<p>School, voting and legislative district boundaries will be based on incorrect figures. <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2019/11/21/high-stakes-for-schools-if-2020-census.html">Allocation of resources for schools</a> and communities will fail to account for the accurate number or demographics of community members. Researchers, businesses and community organizations will design and implement projects based on misinformation.</p>
<p>If the Census Bureau wants to overcome barriers to participation, it will have to make efforts <a href="https://censuscounts.org/whats-at-stake/will-you-count-latinos-in-the-2020-census/">to educate and facilitate participation among undocumented immigrants</a>.</p>
<p>Some ideas might include <a href="https://hagasecontar.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NEF_2020_Censo_101_SP_2.pdf">educating immigrants</a> about how census data are used, in their native languages, or sharing information through <a href="https://censuscounts.org/gotcplan/">trusted community members</a> or <a href="https://populardemocracy.org/sites/default/files/20191015_We%20Count%21%20Final-web.pdf">organizations</a> serving undocumented immigrants. Flyers, emails and texts from these organizations could potentially serve as an invaluable tool to disseminate accurate content related to the census.</p>
<p>Another idea is that the federal government might be able to reduce fear by <a href="https://www.nnirr.org/%7Ennirrorg/drupal/no-immigration-enforcement-census2020">ceasing immigration enforcement</a> activity while 2020 census data are actively being collected.</p>
<p>The United States has an opportunity to accurately assess who resides in our country and in our communities. Fostering a climate of safety around the census is essential to achieving a complete count.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Lehman Held receives funding from Fahs-Beck Fund for Research and Experimentation and University of Tennessee College of Social Work Social Justice Innovation Initiative. She is affiliated with Asia Connection, Inc. </span></em></p>The United States is at risk of lacking data from more than 10 million undocumented immigrants in the 2020 census.Mary Lehman Held, Associate Professor of Social Work, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1326352020-03-31T19:01:07Z2020-03-31T19:01:07ZThe US census has its flaws – but so has every attempt to count people throughout history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321745/original/file-20200319-22627-1mc2jls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C45%2C3712%2C2675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Francis William Edmonds' 'Taking the Census,' from 1854. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/taking-the-census-1854-artist-francis-william-edmonds-news-photo/1195089483?adppopup=true">Heritage Art/Heritage Images/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A few days ago, I completed my 2020 U.S. census form. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030405779">My latest book</a> details the fundamentals and significance of the 2020 census. By April 1, every residence in the United States will be contacted, usually by mail, to answer only seven questions. This year you may respond online, although there are options for paper, telephone and even talking to a census worker. </p>
<p>Special efforts will be launched to reach the homeless, people in transit and those living in unconventional housing, such as a houseboat. The census will <a href="https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/2020_decennial_census/why_did_study">cost billions of dollars</a>.</p>
<p>All this effort and expense raises the issue of whether there is an alternative. The short answer is no, not unless the U.S. Constitution is amended. </p>
<p>Other countries, however, have different ways of counting and tracking their populations. The U.S. system is moving in their direction. </p>
<h2>Is there a better way?</h2>
<p>The census is required by the <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Proportional-Representation/">U.S. Constitution to apportion the House of Representatives</a> according to the population of the states. <a href="https://www.pogo.org/census-project/">Census data are used to allocate federal funding</a>, some US$1.5 trillion of it, to states and localities. </p>
<p>Undercounting just one child in poverty may cost a school district nearly $1,700 a year in Title I funds. According to one study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304569">the people most likely to be undercounted</a> are often the very people who would benefit the most from Medicaid and other programs.</p>
<p>The census is a snapshot of the country’s population. The nature of a snapshot is that it is fixed at a point in time. According to the U.S. Constitution, that snapshot is taken once every 10 years.</p>
<p>The census will not change or go away unless the U.S. Constitution is amended, a lengthy process requiring the agreement of a supermajority of both Houses of Congress and three-fourths of the state legislatures. However, a continuous population register would be one alternative, perhaps enhanced with an occasional “light-touch” census supplementing the register information with just a few questions asked at long intervals. </p>
<p>In reality, however, the population is more like a video, with people moving in and out as they are born and die and change residences in between those two events. A continuous population register is more like a video than a snapshot, with every birth, death and move tracked for every resident. </p>
<h2>How population registers work</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/vi/academic/subjects/sociology/demography-social-statistics/population-and-society-introduction-demography-2nd-edition?format=HB">Population registers</a> – which require citizens to keep a current address with the government and to register births and deaths – have existed for centuries in parts of Asia and Europe, especially in Scandinavia. </p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Study_of_Population.html?id=Ug3hjgEACAAJ">Population registration in China</a> dates back at least to the Han dynasty (206 B.C. - A.D. 220). Later, birth and death registration laws were part of the T'ang codes, one of China’s earliest recorded legal codes.</p>
<p>The Japanese system of registration, which was adapted from China, featured distinctive household registries that were intended to be the basis of periodic land reallocation in the seventh century A.D. – though it isn’t clear that Japan ever used the data in this way. National registration was restored and strengthened during the Tokugawa shogunate in the 1600s.</p>
<p>The European origins of registries were parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials. Later, the nation-state coordinated the registry, including the movement of citizens from one place to another. </p>
<p>Today, the registries are digitized. As I note in <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030405779">my latest book</a>, the Swedish tax authority, for example, maintains the registry for Sweden, and Swedes have unique PINs and the right to see anything in their file.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/324124/original/file-20200330-174736-i55xq4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A census interview in 1940.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/photos/1940-census-interview.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Just the census – for now</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2011/demo/POP-twps0088.pdf">a working paper developed for the U.S. Census Bureau</a>, the United States knows how many people are born and die every year with high accuracy. </p>
<p>For most of the U.S. population – at least those who are reached by the IRS, Social Security or Medicare – it is highly likely that the federal government has their address. There are some potential barriers to using a population register, because tracking births and deaths is a responsibility of individual states, but the states cooperate with the federal government in compiling vital statistics.</p>
<p>The biggest flaw with the population register is keeping accurate track of international migration. </p>
<p>Entry into the United States might go undetected, or a visa may expire. Emigrants are not required to notify the United States that they have relocated to another country, and the U.S. does not employ exit visas. </p>
<p>Even if “net migration” – immigrants minus emigrants – is estimated for the country as a whole, the state or locality where people have entered or left may be unknown. This would be important information for local governments that must provide roads, police and fire service, and other services for all.</p>
<p>This year, the U.S. Census Bureau will use an unprecedented amount of administrative data, such as Social Security records, to check the accuracy of census data, to edit missing information and to estimate the citizenship status of respondents. This latter use of administrative data <a href="https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/1g1cbvkv">has been mandated by a presidential executive order</a> to ascertain citizenship, after the Supreme Court prevented a citizenship question being put on the 2020 census. </p>
<p>So, while there is not yet a population register, it might be at America’s doorstep. In the meantime, however, please complete your census form – it is your democratic duty. </p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teresa A. Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Countries have been trying to count their populations since the Han dynasty in China.Teresa A. Sullivan, Interim Provost, Michigan State University and President Emerita and University Professor, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301072020-03-30T12:15:20Z2020-03-30T12:15:20ZHow prisoners, soldiers and Mormon missionaries make the census more complicated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318350/original/file-20200303-66078-1of29ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Counting Americans is a complicated process.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-united-states-census-2020-form-1510688600">Tada Images/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. census is the most democratic and inclusive activity we do as a country. </p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.cpc.unc.edu/people/staff/rebecca-tippett/">demographers like myself</a>, this once-a-decade count serves as the backbone of virtually every product that we use to understand who Americans are, how they’ve changed and what this might mean for the future. The U.S. also uses the census counts to distribute political power and allocate funding for everything from highway spending to programs like Medicare and Head Start.</p>
<p>But not all groups are equally likely to be counted in the census. </p>
<p>Some, like <a href="https://www.ncdemography.org/2020/03/02/where-are-college-students-counted-for-the-2020-census/">college students</a> or people who own two homes, are more likely to be counted more than once. Others, like <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/research-testing/undercount-of-young-children.html">young children</a> or people who have recently moved, are less likely to be counted at all.</p>
<p>And then there those for whom getting counted is a little more complex, because where they live on Census Day – April 1, 2020 – is even less clear. There are three groups that have consistently posed problems to the U.S. census throughout history and continue to spark debate to this day: military members, Mormon missionaries and prisoners. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318912/original/file-20200305-106584-1k96beb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, the Census Bureau will continue to count military personnel stationed overseas, but where they are counted will change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/us-soldiers-giving-salute-716498566">Bumble Dee/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Military members</h2>
<p>Overseas military personnel have long been counted in the census, but they were not included in the apportionment population – the number the federal government uses to apportion 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states – until the 1970 census. </p>
<p>Due to the scale of the Vietnam War and U.S. involvement in Southeast Asia, there was bipartisan congressional concern for the <a href="https://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/overseas/techn62-1.pdf">“unusually large numbers of military personnel [stationed] overseas on Census Day.”</a>
U.S. military and federal civilian employees stationed abroad, and their dependents living with them, were counted and allocated back to their home states beginning in 1970. </p>
<p>Although this group was left out of the 1980 census, due to no official legal requirement and no demand, U.S. military and federal civilian employees have been counted and included in the apportionment population in every census since 1990. </p>
<p>For the purposes of congressional apportionment, these individuals are allocated to their state of residence. That means that a person from North Carolina who might be serving abroad in Iraq will count as a resident of North Carolina. </p>
<p>Because the 1990 census included military personnel stationed abroad, one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives shifted from Massachusetts to Washington state. Massachusetts challenged the Census Bureau’s decision to count military personnel abroad, arguing that it created an inequality in the counting of state populations. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court disagreed with Massachusetts. In <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/91-1502.ZS.html">Franklin v. Massachusetts</a> in 1992, the court found that the enumeration of overseas military personnel was “consistent with constitutional language and goal of equal representation.” They found that the Census Bureau’s decision on where to count individuals was consistent with their standard of “usual residence,” which reflects where people live and sleep most of the time.</p>
<p>In 2020, the Census Bureau will continue to count military personnel stationed overseas, but where they are counted will change.</p>
<p>Traditionally, military personnel were counted at their “home of record” – their permanent address according to the military. </p>
<p>But, in 2020, military personnel who are temporarily deployed abroad will be counted at their home base address, not their home of record. For example, an Army soldier stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville, North Carolina, who is temporarily deployed abroad, would be counted at their Fayetteville address.</p>
<p>This could have a big impact <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2020/02/26/census-troop-counting-rules-could-tip-congressional-balance/">in communities and states with a large military presence</a>, such as North Carolina, Texas and California, who could stand to receive more federal funding.</p>
<h2>Mormon missionaries</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau does not count other Americans abroad. </p>
<p>This decision has a large impact on Utah. Utah has a significant overseas population: In 2000, there were more than 11,000 Mormon missionaries from Utah living abroad, more than three times the state’s overseas military and federal employee population.</p>
<p>Had these missionaries been included in the 2000 census count, Utah would have gotten a fourth seat in the House of Representatives. Instead, the House seat went to North Carolina, which had 18,360 overseas military and federal personnel counted in the census.</p>
<p>Much like Massachusetts after the 1990 census, Utah <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp2/143/1290/2428922/">sued after the 2000 census</a>, claiming that either Mormon missionaries should be counted or no American living abroad should be counted. </p>
<p>The district court disagreed. They found that Utah’s argument was not fundamentally different from the argument Massachusetts had made a decade earlier. Moreover, they found that including only Mormon missionaries in addition to federal employees “would overwhelmingly favor Utah vis-a-vis all forty-nine other states.” In other words, all states can benefit from the Bureau counting federal overseas employees, but only Utah would benefit from the inclusion of Mormon missionaries. The Supreme Court declined to hear the case on appeal. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318927/original/file-20200305-106610-1ds3wtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young Mormon missionary men walking in Papeete, Tahiti.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/papeete-tahiti-10-dec-2018-view-1541682563">EQRoy/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Prisoners</h2>
<p>Since the first U.S. census was conducted in 1790, prisoners have been counted <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2019/12/31/761932806/your-body-being-used-where-prisoners-who-can-t-vote-fill-voting-districts">as residents of their correctional facility, not at their home address</a>. </p>
<p>This sparked nearly 78,000 comments to the Census Bureau when they published a document in the Federal Register in 2018 <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/02/08/2018-02370/final-2020-census-residence-criteria-and-residence-situations?">asking for public input on census residence criteria</a>. Virtually all comments suggested that prisoners should be counted at their home address or where they lived before being incarcerated. </p>
<p>In a summary of the comments, the Census Bureau noted, “Almost all commenters either directly suggested, or alluded to the view, that counting prisoners at the prison inflates the political power of the area where the prison is located, and deflates the political power in the prisoners’ home communities.” </p>
<p>Prior to the 1970s, the size of the incarcerated population was small enough that it did not have a clear impact on redistricting. Today, the size of the prison population, at 2.2 million people, can distort redistricting processes by creating voting districts made up primarily of incarcerated populations. Or, it could play a role in a community receiving increased grant money based on census counts. In other words, a county with a large prison would receive more votes and more federal funding. </p>
<p>Some commenters on the Census Bureau’s federal register notice argue that these impacts are unfair, as in most states, <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/06/prisoners-in-just-two-states-can-vote-heres-why-few-do/">prisoners cannot vote</a>. </p>
<p>To address some concerns about “prison gerrymandering,” some states have passed laws that <a href="https://www.prisonersofthecensus.org/">require relocating prisoners to their last known home addresses for redistricting purposes</a>. </p>
<p>Communities only have one shot to count all of their residents. If a community is undercounted, or if the rules governing who counts and where they count change, it can have lasting implications on representation and federal funding for the next decade. </p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Tippett is the Board Chair of the NC Counts Coalition, an organization dedicated to achieving a complete and accurate Census count for North Carolina.
</span></em></p>The 2020 census will now count some groups differently than it has in the past. That could make a difference in the final count – affecting which states receive funding and congressional seats.Rebecca Tippett, Director of Carolina Demography, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1338892020-03-23T12:33:43Z2020-03-23T12:33:43ZStudents could be undercounted in the census as coronavirus closes colleges – here’s why that matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321612/original/file-20200319-22627-s64z9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C15%2C4955%2C3296&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Howard University students moving out of dorms in Washington.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Washington-Daily-Life/91b2604378954143afc91b4eab6436cc/6/0">Patrick Semansky/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At college dormitories and student apartments across the U.S., census forms will be piling up – but many run the risk of not being filled in.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s">spread of the coronavirus in the U.S.</a> has coincided with the <a href="https://apnews.com/3fc59096ab138fdd4795386a2987c573">start of data collection for the 2020 census</a>. </p>
<p>This may not affect the process for most people who are self-isolating at home. But for students, it could well affect where and if they are counted – and that could have big implications.</p>
<p>The rapid spread of the virus has meant that most colleges have by now closed their classrooms. Many universities have extended the usual weeklong spring break into a second week. At Texas A&M University, <a href="https://liberalarts.tamu.edu/sociology/profile/dudley-poston/">where I am an emeritus professor</a>, online instruction will <a href="https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/index.html">begin after the the spring break</a> and continue through the end of the semester in late April. It is a similar story elsewhere.</p>
<p>As a result, many students may not be returning to their campus residences any time soon.</p>
<h2>Usual residence</h2>
<p>Census data collected from college students are pretty much the same as for the non-student population. The census questions <a href="https://2020census.gov/content/dam/2020census/materials/group-quarters/questionnaires/Informational%20Copy%20of%20the%202020%20Individual%20Census%20Questionnaire%20(Stateside%20English).pdf">ask about sex, age, race and Hispanic origin</a>.</p>
<p>Students living off campus also answer questions about whether their household is rented or owned and about their relationships to those living with them.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321707/original/file-20200319-22598-1yiaefg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public and private colleges, like Bowdoin College, are emptying out amid the coronavirus crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Virus-Outbreak-Maine/ee856aa9fcdc49f6b452045378e1cffe/39/0">Robert F. Bukaty/AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Census Day is April 1, but the collection effort has already started. On March 12, households began receiving mailed invitations from the Census Bureau with instructions about how to respond. This will be followed up by four more reminder letters, through April 27.</p>
<p>For those who still haven’t responded by then, nonresponse follow-ups start on May 13 and continue until July 31, when census takers visit households they haven’t yet heard back from. However, Wilbur Ross, who as Commerce Secretary oversees the Census Bureau, has warned that <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-15/census-coronavirus-count-changes-homeless-college-students">the dates may change</a> as a result of coronavirus.</p>
<p>Since 1950, college students have been counted at their “usual residence” as of census day. Most attend college away from their family homes and live on or near their campuses, so are <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/15/college-students-count-in-the-census-but-where/">not counted at their parents’ homes</a>.</p>
<p>In private colleges, <a href="https://www.reference.com/world-view/percent-college-students-live-campus-d1d5a0fac8718894">almost two-thirds live on campus</a>, 20% off campus and 17% at home with their parents. In public colleges, around 40% live on campus, 40% off campus and 20% with their parents.</p>
<h2>Dorm closures</h2>
<p>Students living off campus in apartments or other housing may have already received a mailed census form. Those living in on-campus dormitories or housing owned by their university are classified as living in “group quarters” – this is similar to residents of nursing homes, seminaries, prisons, hospitals and vocational training facilities. </p>
<p>The on-campus students are counted in one of three different ways. Either a university official completes a single form for all students in the dormitory based on administrative data – the Census Bureau estimates that <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/modifying-2020-operations-for-counting-college-students.html">around 55% of on-campus students</a> will be counted this way – or students answer the census questions themselves by filling in forms or, <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2013/dec/2010_cpex_243.pdf">in rarer cases</a>, via face-to-face interviews with census workers on April 1.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321706/original/file-20200319-22602-14mmf49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students are moving belongings into storage, anticipating long stay away from dorms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/matthew-adams-of-midland-michigan-moves-belongings-into-a-news-photo/1213087457?adppopup=true">Gregory Shamus/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how will the coronavirus impact the collection of census data for college students? </p>
<p>Just over half of those listed as living in “group quarters” do not need to be present when university administrators fill in the forms, so are less likely to be affected. But around a third of on-campus students would have been expected to answer the four census questions themselves. Many will no longer be in their dorms – indeed in some universities, dorms will have been closed due to coranavirus before the end of the spring semester. I believe this could affect as many as 2 million full-time students who risk being undercounted in the census.</p>
<p>As for those living off campus, a good number will be staying at their parents’ homes and will not be responding to the census invitations sent to their student address. By the time the “nonresponse follow-ups” begin, the spring semester will be over. As such, the usual window for census responses from students attending classes will be lost owing to the emergence and spread of the COVID-19 disease. </p>
<p>Around a third of the <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372">12 million full-time college students</a> in the U.S. live off campus, adding, perhaps, another 4 million names to the pool of students who could be undercounted as a result of the virus. The fear is many will end up simply not being counted at all, while others will be counted at their parents address. </p>
<p>This undercount of both on-campus and off-campus students could run into several million and have big implications.</p>
<p>Many universities are not located in large metropolitan areas. Texas A&M, where I taught, has an enrollment of over 60,000 students in Brazos County – more than a quarter of the county’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/brazoscountytexas">total population of just over 226,000</a>. </p>
<p>College students overwhelm the demography of Brazos County, as they do at many other large universities not located in large metro areas, such as Penn State, Indiana University, University of Kansas, Virginia Tech University, Cornell University, Utah State University, University of Missouri, University of Illinois, University of Michigan and University of Florida.</p>
<h2>Funding concerns</h2>
<p>Counties with large universities depend heavily on student responses to the decennial census, because the census counts determine the levels of federal funding communities receive. </p>
<p>Every year, the federal government allocates over US$1.5 trillion dollars to states, counties, cities and households, based solely on their population counts. The state of Texas alone <a href="https://www.theeagle.com/opinion/columnists/being-counted-will-make-a-big-difference-for-texas-and/article_7ec268be-64c9-11ea-b084-07fed09f197f.html">receives over $100 billion dollars each year</a> based on the size of its population. </p>
<p>The more people counted in a state, the more money received by the state and its counties and cities. Federal funds <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/working-papers/Uses-of-Census-Bureau-Data-in-Federal-Funds-Distribution.pdf">distributed on the basis of census data</a> include money for medical resources, poverty alleviation, infrastructure projects and emergency relief.</p>
<p>A county with a large university, such as Brazos County with Texas A&M University, especially benefits owing to the large proportion of college students living in the county.</p>
<p>This student advantage could be wiped out as a result of student undercounts, proving a costly setback for university towns entirely and solely resulting from the recent emergence and spread of the COVID-19 disease.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Census data are used to determine federal funding on everything from highway construction to poverty services. With many students heading back to their parents’ homes, college towns may take a hit.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324192020-03-11T12:20:18Z2020-03-11T12:20:18ZIndian Country leaders urge Native people to be counted in 2020 Census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318363/original/file-20200303-66112-ydb37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C44%2C4883%2C3191&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alaska Native girls prepare to dance in honor of the beginning of the 2020 Census in rural Alaska. The Census count begins in this state out of necessity and tradition.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/America-Census-Begins/5366d63806004fe3a921d48c83cda2fe/35/0">AP Images/Gregory Bull</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Native Americans living on reservations and in traditional villages were the most <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb12-95.html">undercounted people in the 2010 U.S. Census</a>. This year, <a href="https://census.narf.org/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAhojzBRC3ARIsAGtNtHU3KOUOzLmvHiXnqDk9V4MwF7sOGjas2BJ4kWy6enI3vRunIfM0dI0aAjYzEALw_wcB">tribal leaders</a> throughout the U.S. are <a href="http://indiancountrycounts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ICC_WebView_12.03.19.pdf">urging American Indians and Alaska Natives</a> to be seen and counted in the 2020 U.S. Census. </p>
<p>The Census, <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/census-constitution.html">mandated by the Constitution</a>, counts all people living in the United States every 10 years. The resulting data is used by federal and state governments to determine political representation and allocate funds for education, social services and other programs. An undercount translates into less money, less political representation and access to fewer resources. </p>
<p>The Census Bureau estimates that it <a href="http://www.ncai.org/policy-issues/economic-development-commerce/census">undercounted</a> American Indians living on reservations and Alaska Natives in villages by approximately 4.9% in 2010. This was more than twice the undercount rate of the next closest population group, African Americans, who had an undercount rate of 2.1%. This undercount was a significant improvement over previous Censuses. In 1990, the Census <a href="http://www.ncai.org/policy-issues/economic-development-commerce/census">overlooked more than 12%</a> of American Indians and Alaska Natives living on their traditional lands.</p>
<p>The U.S. government has been <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/genealogy/decennial_census_records/censuses_of_american_indians.html">counting and tracking American Indians</a> since the early 19th century, creating numerous “rolls” or <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/native-americans/rolls">lists</a>. These rolls have been used for many reasons – to remove tribes from west of Mississippi, to pay annuities outlined in government-to-government treaties or to <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/native-americans/dawes/tutorial/intro.html">divide up tribal lands</a> into individual parcels. Given this long history of counting Native Americans, why has the Census Bureau undercounted so many Native people?</p>
<h2>Barriers to an accurate count</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319131/original/file-20200306-118881-11c177n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some traditional Native American lands may not have street addresses, information requested in the census count.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-North-Dakota-Voter-ID/6ee1117e900447d0b8a6414861e49112/315/0">AP Photo/Blake Nicholson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>American Indians and Alaska Natives have proven challenging to count for a number of reasons. Perhaps most importantly, many American Indians and Alaska Natives <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/native-americans-census-most-undercounted-racial-group-fight-accurate-2020-n1105096">do not trust</a> the federal government. Federal Indian policies have removed tribes from their traditional lands and forced Native children to leave their families to attend boarding schools. For some tribal citizens, the arrival of a federal official on their doorstep can conjure up memories of the <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/12/16/native-american-leaders-work-to-overcome-community-mistrust-of-census">historical trauma</a> their parents and grandparents faced at the hands of the U.S. government. </p>
<p>Some Native people who are willing to engage with the federal government may be wary about whether their information will remain <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/12/16/native-american-leaders-work-to-overcome-community-mistrust-of-census">confidential</a> and protected. Some researchers have <a href="https://www.samhsa.gov/sites/default/files/nace-steps-conducting-research-evaluation-native-communities.pdf">taken advantage of Native people’s trust</a> and <a href="https://www.history.com/news/why-the-navajo-nation-banned-genetic-research">misused their information</a> in the past, making them leery of how data collected about them will be stored and used. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318403/original/file-20200303-66064-1e4x7wk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2020 U.S. Census began in Toksook Bay, Alaska, a coastal village on the Bering Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/America-Census-Begins/f8fdd53b45624bf0aa7c5e4c167eed2c/54/0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>American Indians and Alaska Natives can be hard to count simply because more than 25% of them live in <a href="http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/census/2020/Fact-Sheet-AIAN-HTC.pdf">hard-to-count areas</a>. For example, the 2020 U.S. Census was kicked off in Alaska Native villages in January because it can be easier to reach remote villages before the snow melts.</p>
<p>Some American Indians and Alaska Natives share the characteristics of other <a href="http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/census/2020/Fact-Sheet-AIAN-HTC.pdf">hard-to-count populations in rural America</a> such as poverty, isolated locations, housing insecurity and a lower rate of high school graduation. </p>
<p>Finally, the Census is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/native-americans-census-most-undercounted-racial-group-fight-accurate-2020-n1105096">not well designed</a> for American Indians or Alaska Natives. Not all American Indians and Alaska Natives <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/15/we-are-still-here-native-americans-fight-to-be-counted-in-us-census">speak English</a>. This year, the census form is translated into a single Native American language, Navajo, even though there are approximately <a href="https://www.babbel.com/en/magazine/native-american-languages-in-the-us">175 Native American languages</a> spoken in the U.S. today. Some Native communities in Alaska and New Mexico are providing <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/478593-the-2020-census-starts-tomorrow-but-will-native">their own translations</a> and instructions in their languages. </p>
<p>Others face challenges because the forms do not provide enough space to write their names or the names of their tribes. They may not be able to provide the kind of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/native-americans-census-most-undercounted-racial-group-fight-accurate-2020-n11050">address</a> that is required because they use a post office box or because there are no street addresses. Still others, especially if they are mixed-race, <a href="https://millelacsband.com/news/census-update-be-sure-to-check-the-box">may struggle with which box to check</a>. Even if they are tribal citizens, in the past they may not have been counted as Indian people <a href="https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/aian_defs_of_indian_and_indian_tribe.pdf?">under federal law</a> or have been eligible to receive federal services for Indians.</p>
<p>In addition to these barriers, the 2020 U.S. Census will rely heavily on the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/native-americans-census-most-undercounted-racial-group-fight-accurate-2020-n11050">internet</a>, technology that a third of Native people living on reservations and in traditional villages still cannot access.</p>
<h2>What’s at stake</h2>
<p>Native leaders know that Census undercounts diminish their political power and the funding appropriated to them by the federal government. Politically, an accurate count ensures that Native peoples receive the <a href="http://indiancountrycounts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ICC_WebView_12.03.19.pdf">congressional representation</a> they deserve. </p>
<p>Census data also informs federal policy. The U.S. Constitution recognizes tribes as sovereign nations that engage in government-to-government relationships with the federal government. Congress, rather than the states, is authorized to make federal Indian policy. Federal officials, members of Congress and tribal leaders rely on Census data to <a href="http://www.ncai.org/policy-issues/economic-development-commerce/census">develop policy</a> that effectively meets the needs of Native people. For example, inaccurate counts of Native youth may limit the behavioral health services provided to them, even though they face higher risks of suicide and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759269/">substance abuse</a> than other youth. </p>
<p>The federal government allocates <a href="http://www.ncai.org/policy-research-center/research-data/prc-publications/CensusAdvocacy.pdf">nearly US$1 billion</a> in annual federal resources to Indian Country based on Census data. American Indian and Alaska Native <a href="http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/census/2020/Fact-Sheet-AIAN-HTC.pdf">governments</a> use this money to provide educational assistance for low-income children, employment and training programs, health services, special programs for elders, and Indian housing and community development. Without an accurate count, tribal governments do not receive adequate funding for these programs and are less able to meet the needs of their people.</p>
<h2>Overcoming mistrust</h2>
<p>Native leaders across the U.S. have been working to educate Native people about the importance of being counted in the 2020 U.S. Census. The <a href="http://indiancountrycounts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ICC_WebView_12.03.19.pdf">National Congress of the American Indian</a>, the oldest, largest and most representative American Indian and Alaska Native organization, has undertaken a public education campaign and designed a toolkit to help tribes and native people participate in the Census. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/04/tribal-leaders-seek-accurate-census-counts-on-reservations">Tribes</a> have devoted considerable energy and resources to preventing another undercount. Beginning in 2015, they have <a href="https://www.census.gov/aian">consulted</a> with the Census Bureau on how to build collaborative relationships to overcome the barriers to counting people in Indian Country. Tribal leaders are using their expertise in reaching their own communities by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/15/we-are-still-here-native-americans-fight-to-be-counted-in-us-census">developing outreach plans</a> to encourage tribal participation and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/native-americans-census-most-undercounted-racial-group-fight-accurate-2020-n11050">hiring tribal citizens</a> to collect Census data. For tribes, an accurate count will enhance their ability to exercise sovereignty over their lands and people.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132419/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Matoy Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Native Americans who live in villages and on traditional lands have been undercounted by the U.S. Census for decades.Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Associate Professor of Law and Adjunct Associate Professor of Political Science, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301092020-03-09T12:18:39Z2020-03-09T12:18:39ZWhy some Americans don’t trust the census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318492/original/file-20200304-66064-57e1nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fears of the census may have informed the Bureau's 2020 tagline.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/05/shape-your-future-start-here.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than <a href="http://apps.urban.org/features/2020-census/">4 million Americans</a> may not be represented in the upcoming 2020 census. </p>
<p>This is a problem, as the once-every-10-year census affects everything from federal funding to political representation to research projects that rely on accurate census data, like the ones <a href="https://www.ncdemography.org/staff/jessica-stanford/">my colleagues and I</a> conduct at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.</p>
<p>The 2020 census is fraught with uncertainty for a variety of reasons, including a lack of money, a growing distrust in government and the months of debate over the now-dropped citizenship question – which the Census Bureau itself called a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/01/663061835/citizenship-question-may-be-major-barrier-to-2020-census-participation">major barrier</a> to participation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/100324/assessing_miscounts_in_the_2020_census_1.pdf">According to a report from the Urban Institute</a>, an economic and social policy think tank, in the Census Bureau’s 2018 Rhode Island <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/blog/2017/11/28/the-one-and-only-end-to-end-2020-census-test.aspx">census test</a>, “There were still reports that, despite the question’s exclusion, people did not want to answer the census because of immigration-related fears.”</p>
<p>Researchers who work with census data know that people don’t participate in the census for different reasons –- several of which may be related to fear over how data is stored and used.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318751/original/file-20200304-66089-17o5wkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Census Bureau conducted one run-through of the 2020 census in Rhode Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/library/photos/2018/nrfu-providence.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Mistrust of government</h2>
<p>The Census Bureau <a href="https://becountedmi2020.com/wp-content/uploads/CBAMS_Presentation_MNA_121218.pdf">conducted a survey in 2018</a> to better understand what attitudes the average American may hold about the census, and what motivates them to participate, if they choose to. </p>
<p>This data would ultimately help drive the bureau’s marketing strategy for the upcoming census, as well as identify key strategies for reaching hard-to-count communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf">A nationally representative survey</a> was sent to 50,000 households across all 50 states. Approximately 17,500 people responded to the survey. These results were then weighted to represent all householders in the United States ages 18 and older. </p>
<p>The Bureau conducted 42 additional focus groups with audiences that are at risk of low census participation: racial and ethnic minorities, those with low internet proficiency, rural residents and people who recently moved.</p>
<p>They found a lack of trust in all levels of government, across all surveyed groups.</p>
<p><iframe id="hG936" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hG936/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Roughly one-quarter of respondents were worried that their responses to the census would be used against them. Those most concerned? Non-Hispanic Asians, households not proficient in English and those born outside of the U.S.</p>
<p>A quarter of respondents were worried about data privacy and confidentiality. Racial and ethnic minorities were much more concerned about this than non-Hispanic whites.</p>
<p>Ten percent of the people surveyed believed incorrectly that the census could be used to “locate people living in the country without documentation.” Another 37% didn’t know if the data would be used in that way.</p>
<h2>Reasons to participate</h2>
<p>Over a quarter of households surveyed indicated a low likelihood – or no likelihood whatsoever – of filling out the census form this year. </p>
<p>In hopes of encouraging those least likely to participate in the census, the Census Bureau also sought to identify <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf">what would be most likely to motivate households to participate</a>. They asked respondents to choose from a list of options which was “the most important reason, to you personally, that you should fill out the census form.”</p>
<p>Many of these same communities that were concerned about data confidentiality and privacy also said that they are more likely to participate in the census if they are made aware of its benefits to the public good.</p>
<p>Funding for public works projects was the most popular choice, with 30% of householders identifying it as their primary or most important reason for participation.</p>
<p><iframe id="dLAB6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dLAB6/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Younger respondents, ages 18 to 34, were most likely to select community-oriented answers like public funding as their prime reason for participation, rather than choices like “It is my civic duty” or “It is used to enforce civil rights laws.” Community-oriented answers were also most popular among Asian, black and Hispanic householders.</p>
<p>Most importantly, 69% of households who indicated that they were less likely to respond to the census identified community motivators as the most important reason to respond, compared to 58% of those with a high likelihood of filling out the census.</p>
<p>This information was used to inform the Census Bureau’s current ad campaign, <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-ads-unveiling.html">“Shape your Future. Start here.”</a> The Bureau’s director, Steve Dillingham, wants to encourage Americans to take part in a “once-in-a-decade chance to inform how billions of dollars in funding are allocated for critical public services like hospitals and health care clinics, schools and education programs, roads and bridges and emergency response.”</p>
<h2>Threat of an undercount</h2>
<p>If distrust in the census remains high, a significant undercount could take place this year. </p>
<p>Distrust and low participation tends to be highest among groups that have been <a href="https://www.ncdemography.org/2019/04/01/census-2020-everything-you-need-to-know-about-north-carolinas-hard-to-count-communities/">historically undercounted</a> in previous censuses: <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/research-testing/undercount-of-young-children.html">young children</a>, renters, people of color and those who live in large households.</p>
<p>In my view, with <a href="https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds">roughly US$1.5 trillion in federal funding</a> for programs that rely on census data, it is imperative that the census count be as accurate and complete as possible, and that individuals across the United States understand its impact.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Stanford works for Carolina Demography, a demographic research consulting service which has provided analysis to the NC Counts Coalition, a non-profit which seeks to achieve a complete and accurate Census count.
They have funded previous works of ours, including the Hard-to-Count interactive map featured on their website. </span></em></p>A quarter of Americans, many of them non-white, are worried about data privacy and confidentiality in the 2020 census.Jessica Stanford, Demographic Analyst, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1301462020-02-25T13:52:53Z2020-02-25T13:52:53ZThe census goes digital – 3 things to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316251/original/file-20200219-11023-1hozc5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Census Bureau staff member uses digital maps to help identify where people live and need to be counted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Census-2020-Technology/389d4451c9fc4238ae62b00b13823dc8/3/0">U.S. Census Bureau via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Census Bureau is hoping that most people who live in the U.S. will use the internet to <a href="https://2020census.gov/en/about-questions.html">answer census questions</a>, rather than filling out a paper form or providing those answers to a census taker in person, at their home.</p>
<p>That would be cheaper – a plus for a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/census-bureau-at-risk-of-not-being-ready-for-count-government-report-says">budget-strapped</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/24/for-2020-census-bureau-plans-to-trade-paper-responses-for-digital-ones/">Census Bureau</a> – and could help ensure maximum turnout and accuracy of the count. For instance, databases could keep track of which homes have not yet responded to the survey, allowing census officials to target mailings and in-person visits to those locations, without needing to spend time chasing households that have already responded.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JpFHYKcAAAAJ&hl=en">as some of my own work</a> on digital platforms and electronic commerce shows, collecting data online carries some significant risks that are new to the census and may undermine the accuracy of the count and the public’s trust in the process.</p>
<h2>Cybersecurity risks</h2>
<p>If everyone responds digitally, the census online system will have to handle nearly 130 million responses – one for <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH">each household in the country</a>. Many of them may be using computers or smartphones that have been hacked or have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/technology/jeff-bezos-hack-iphone.html">malicious software</a> installed. </p>
<p>One potential problem this raises is that someone trying to respond to the census may find themself instead submitting their information to some other group, one that seeks to illegitimately <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/11/census-2020-internet-scams-fraud-digital-divide-undercount/600505/">harvest their personal data for profit</a>.</p>
<p>Another possibility is that a person might be submitting their information to the actual census website, but the software running secretly on their computer could modify the data before it’s recorded. That could result in inaccurate reporting – making it seem like more people live in a home than actually do, or fewer. </p>
<p>Because census data is used to <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/congressional-apportionment.html">determine congressional representation</a> and <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/decennial/census-data-federal-funds.html">calculate who gets how much federal money</a>, those changes could affect a community’s political power and government services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316253/original/file-20200219-11044-p9h3lr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">African Americans are more likely than other Americans to rely on mobile connections for their internet access.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-shares-an-internet-page-with-her-son-as-they-ride-a-news-photo/959320082?adppopup=true">Robert Alexander/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bridging the digital divide</h2>
<p>Of course, not everyone will complete their census survey online. In addition to people who don’t have computers and smartphones, many homes aren’t connected to the internet. Even in New York City, what appears to be a pinnacle of an interconnected urban area, <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/11/census-2020-internet-scams-fraud-digital-divide-undercount/600505/">about 29% of households</a> don’t have high-speed internet access.</p>
<p>To reach those people, and those in more suburban and rural areas who also don’t have internet access, the Census Bureau will need to rely on phone and mail responses, along with the traditional method of visits by door-to-door census takers.</p>
<p>The data collection effort underway for the 2020 U.S. Census may end up disadvantaging the households without access to broadband internet access. Groups that are more likely to use the internet on their mobile phones – as opposed to a computer – may find it too hard to use their phones to respond to the online questionnaire. That could end up <a href="https://www.georgetownpoverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LCEF_2020_Census_Poll_Report-Final-002.pdf">disproportionately reducing the response</a> from African Americans, Latinos, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/internet-broadband/">younger adults, low-income earners and people without a high school diploma</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. Census Bureau is aware of those concerns and is <a href="https://strategy.data.gov/proof-points/2019/07/14/census-pdb-roam/">working to identify communities</a> where a <a href="https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/roam/ROAM_FAQ.pdf">lower online response</a> is likely. The agency says it will <a href="https://www.georgetownpoverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LCEF_2020_Census_Poll_Report-Final-002.pdf">send paper questionnaires</a> and even human census takers to households in those areas <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030405779">at particular risk</a>. </p>
<p>There is an opportunity for civic technology and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2018/01/19/the-citizen-data-scientist/">citizen data science</a> to help address people’s difficulties using online surveys, too. For instance, the <a href="https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/">Hard to Count map</a> tracks households with poor internet access, and neighborhoods that are home to racial or ethnic minorities and people with lower income or education levels. <a href="https://www.govtech.com/civic/How-One-Data-Map-Is-Supporting-Census-Work-Nationwide.html">Nonprofit organizations and community groups</a> are using the map to target efforts to encourage people to participate in the census.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316249/original/file-20200219-11044-rle7nk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman knocks on a door in Maryland, seeking to encourage people of Central American descent to complete the 2020 census questionnaire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/julia-aviles-zavala-sounds-the-afternoon-interviewing-news-photo/1197287274">Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Privacy concerns</h2>
<p>Since the early days of the census, privacy has been a concern. In the 1850 census, the U.S. marshals assigned to collect data were instructed to <a href="https://www2.census.gov/library/visualizations/2019/communications/history-privacy-protection.pdf">consider all the responses to be confidential</a>. By 1880, census workers – now trained survey-takers rather than law enforcement workers – were subject to <a href="https://www2.census.gov/library/visualizations/2019/communications/history-privacy-protection.pdf">fines for violating their oaths</a> of secrecy. </p>
<p>Over the decades, the Census Bureau has updated standards to keep up with changes in technology and societal <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2019/comm/history-privacy-protection.html">expectations about privacy protection</a>. The most recent set of concerns involves the potential for people to use computers to <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2019/02/census_bureau_adopts.html">match up census data with other data</a> available publicly online. The U.S. Census Bureau’s researchers found they could combine the 2010 census results with the contents of commercial databases and determine the <a href="https://apnews.com/88307905204e4d5aaad10db486514ccb">real identities of 52 million Americans</a>. That could reveal private information, and violates the Census Bureau’s obligation to protect respondents’ identities.</p>
<p>In an attempt to prevent that from happening with the results of the 2020 census, the Census Bureau has adopted a statistical method called “<a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030405779">differential privacy</a>” in hopes of <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/can-set-equations-keep-us-census-data-private">obscuring sensitive personal information</a>. The mathematics underlying technique are complicated, but in general the idea is that state-level counts will be accurate, but more detailed measurements – of populations of counties, towns and neighborhoods – will be altered to avoid revealing specific data that could be used to identify actual people.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://assets.ipums.org/_files/mpc/wp2018-06.pdf">researchers have voiced concerns</a> that the data may not accurately represent the nation’s population, and that <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2019/12/16/researchers-warn-census-privacy-efforts-may-muddy-federal-data/">more specific details</a> about the numbers of residents of states and towns may be misleading. Critics fear the effort to protect Americans’ privacy may end up complicating planning that factors in population numbers, like disaster preparedness efforts.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anjana Susarla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Collecting census data online creates new risks to the accuracy and integrity of the information. Here’s what to be aware of.Anjana Susarla, Associate Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1299542020-02-04T13:30:30Z2020-02-04T13:30:30Z100 years ago, Congress threw out results of the census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311466/original/file-20200122-117907-rp6aoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A "very small section' of the Census Bureau, sometime between 1910 and 1930.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2004671454/">Library of Congress</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2020 Census hasn’t even started – but it has already kicked off spirited fights. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-supreme-court-asked-for-an-explanation-of-the-2020-census-citizenship-question-119567">A Supreme Court case</a>, decided last year, blocked a Trump administration proposal to ask every respondent if they were a citizen. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/gerrymandering-fair-representation/fair-accurate-census/2020-census-litigation">three pending federal court suits</a> in which plaintiffs for civil rights groups and one city claim that the administration has not done sufficient planning or provided enough funding for Census 2020. </p>
<p>Census 2020 is far from the first census to set off bitter political fights. One hundred years ago, results from Census 1920 initiated a decadelong struggle about how to allocate a state’s seats in Congress. The political arguments were so bitter that Congress eventually decided they would not use Census 1920 results. </p>
<p>Could this happen again?</p>
<h2>Power in the census</h2>
<p>The framers of the Constitution mandated a count of all people every ten years, in order to allocate seats in Congress and the Electoral College on the basis of each state’s population. </p>
<p>The results of the census shift political power and money. At present, <a href="https://apnews.com/b05b7206ad374e7abb03372cb4e4d6e4">US$1.5 trillion</a> in federal spending is distributed to states and local governments every year on the basis of data gathered by the Census Bureau.</p>
<p><a href="http://fordschool.umich.edu/faculty/ren-farley">I am a demographer</a> who has been teaching about the nation’s population trends since the early 1960s. I have analyzed census data for decades. In Census 2000, I was an enumerator and Census 2010, an address lister. </p>
<p>The 2020 Census asks just seven questions. Back in 1910, the census <a href="https://usa.ipums.org/usa/voliii/items1910.shtml">posed 32 questions</a>, with an additional array of questions for farmers. One of those queries asked farmers the value of the products they sold during the previous year. </p>
<p>Since 1790, the official census start date had been either the first Monday of August or June 1. But, for the 1920 census, the Department of Agriculture presumed they would obtain more accurate information about the value of crops <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/overview/1920.html">if the census were taken on Jan. 1</a>. They feared farmers would forget financial details over the winter. </p>
<p>Congress approved the change without realizing the implications. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311464/original/file-20200122-117962-m936iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=941&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taking the census in 1920.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2016827352/">Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Immigration influx</h2>
<p>Census 1920 results were released in December of that year, and they surprised the members of Congress. </p>
<p>At that time, there was vibrant opposition to foreigners coming into the U.S. The nation had already <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=47">banned immigration</a> <a href="http://www.mocanyc.org/learn/timeline/immigration_act_of_1917">from Asia</a>, but many of those arrived after 1880 were Catholics and Jews who came from southern and eastern Europe. Many Americans feared they would never assimilate.</p>
<p>The 1920 census results showed that the Northeastern and industrial Midwestern states had grown rapidly, thanks to immigration from Europe. After an interruption for World War I, immigration spiked to 800,000 in 1920.</p>
<p>In response to census results and the unexpected “flood” of immigrants, Congress, in 1921, enacted an <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/1921_emergency_quota_law.html">Emergency Immigration Quota Act</a>, restricting immigration. </p>
<h2>The lost census</h2>
<p>That was just the first step in <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300195422/american-census">a decadelong controversy</a> involving key issues that shaped the nation. Would there be continued immigration from eastern and southern Europe? Would political power shift to the states with the biggest cities? </p>
<p>The 1920 results would have shifted political power away from the South and away from the agricultural states of the Midwest, to the northeastern states and those states Americans now call the Rust Belt. </p>
<p>Representatives of farm states contended that the new Jan. 1 census date meant that many men who spent most of the year working on farms were counted in cities where they spent just a few winter months.</p>
<p>Southerners in Congress argued that congressional seats should be allocated on the number of citizens only, since this would protect their representation. </p>
<p>Congressmen from growing states emphasized that the Constitution said nothing about citizens. They argued that a constitutional amendment was required to limit congressional apportionment to citizens only. </p>
<p>Northeastern members also pointed to an obscure clause from the 14th Amendment that permitted Congress to diminish a state’s representation if they determined that a state abridged the right of male citizens to vote. Southern states attempted to accomplish that with poll taxes, literacy tests, grandfather clauses and refusal to register African Americans. </p>
<p>There was also controversy about which mathematical method to use to allocate seats to states. Different methods assigned different numbers of seats to states. </p>
<p>From 1800 to 1910, Congress had increased its membership after censuses, to prevent states from losing a seat. Vibrant controversy raged about the size of Congress, since different numbers favored different states. </p>
<p>Late in the 1920s, it became clear that Congress was so riven they would never use Census 1920 data to reapportion Congress. In 1929, they <a href="https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1901-1950/The-Permanent-Apportionment-Act-of-1929/">enacted legislation</a> specifying which method would be used to allocate seats on the basis of the 1930 count.</p>
<p>Census 1920 is unique, since it was the only one not used for reapportionment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311463/original/file-20200122-117954-o05yy9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1920 census captured a rapidly growing immigrant population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/sights_sounds/photos/1920_photos.php">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Echoes of the past</h2>
<p>Is there any chance the census count of 2020 will be dismissed?</p>
<p>Just as in the 1920, there are conflicting views today about immigration and how much representation states should have in Congress and the Electoral College. </p>
<p>In the pending federal suits, plaintiffs contend that the administration’s lack of sufficient planning and funding will substantially undercount Americans, especially minority groups. </p>
<p>Should federal judges find in the plaintiff’s favor, members of Congress may be skeptical about data from Census 2020. </p>
<p>What’s more, at present, there are many individuals and several organizations <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article231565053.html">arguing that congressional and Electoral College seats</a> should be allocated <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/15pdf/14-940_ed9g.pdf;%20Evenwel%20v.%20Abbott,%20135%20U.%20S..%201120,%202016">according to the count of citizens</a> or the count of voting age citizens, as opposed to all residents.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/alabama-v-united-states-department-commerce">The state of Alabama has already filed suit</a> contending that Alabama will likely lose a seat to Texas because aliens are included in the count used to apportion seats. If Congress were to apportion seats on the basis of citizens only, the Supreme Court may have to rule about what the framers of the Constitution meant when they defined the apportionment population.</p>
<p>Finally, the nation’s population is currently three times as large as in 1911, when Congress decided that 435 was the appropriate size of membership. On the basis of 2019 data, it seems likely that <a href="http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/tools/apportionment">10 states will lose a representative</a>.</p>
<p>Some political analysts and advocates favor <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/01/24/133184399/Op-Ed-America-Needs-A-Larger-Congress">an expansion of Congress</a>, since that would mean that members would represent fewer constituents. If Congress, next year, decided to increase its size to 460, no state would lose any of its current seats. </p>
<p>A new Congress will be elected this November and they will meet for the first time on Jan. 3, 2021. One of their first obligations will be reapportionment. Will this go smoothly – or will the controversies of the 1920s once again influence what use Congress makes of census counts?</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Walter Reynolds Farley receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Child
Health and Human Development prior to 2010. I was a summer intern at the Census Bureau in 1962 and 1963 and
was employed as a Census Bureau enumerator for Census 2000.</span></em></p>The results of the 1920 census kicked off a bitter, decadelong political squabble. Could the same happen again in 2020?Walter Reynolds Farley, Professor Emeritus of Sociology, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1189882019-08-12T11:11:59Z2019-08-12T11:11:59ZWhy the 2020 census matters for rural Americans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284803/original/file-20190718-116547-1i8bl4d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Families in rural areas are harder for the Census Bureau to reach.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-fun-family-nature-concept-united-1417378946?src=nNTHMIMdwL1Oxh7reyTF8w-1-9&studio=1">Rafa artphoto/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As director of the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies, I regularly talk to people about how they can use data to help their communities thrive.</p>
<p>The decennial census is particularly important – and the next one is less than a year away.</p>
<p>People living in rural and small town America in particular have much at stake in the 2020 census. Unfortunately, census participation tends to be lower in rural areas.</p>
<p>Our research network – including the State Data Center of Mississippi, Mississippi Kids Count Program and the Southern Rural Development Center – has been working to better understand potential barriers to census participation. </p>
<h2>Valuable data</h2>
<p>Legally mandated by the U.S. Constitution, <a href="https://www.census.gov/partners/2020.html">the census</a> is an effort to count all people living on American soil for the primary purpose of apportioning political representation in the federal government. Census data are also used for drawing political boundaries for local, state and federal elections.</p>
<p>Government agencies must use decennial census data, often coupled with data from the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs">American Community Survey</a>, to help determine government funding for <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/working-papers/Uses-of-Census-Bureau-Data-in-Federal-Funds-Distribution.pdf">rural development, infrastructure and health initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>Census counts are also used to determine <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/acs/acsgeo-1.pdf">what places are considered rural or urban</a> and where counties fall <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/rural-economy-population/rural-classifications/">along the rural-urban continuum</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers focusing on rural America, <a href="https://socanth.olemiss.edu/john-green/">like myself</a>, are concerned with many issues that census data can help us to understand.</p>
<p>For instance, the rate of population loss in rural America has declined and even slightly reversed in recent years. However, there can be vast differences between regions. As noted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2019/february/rural-population-trends/">John Cromartie and Dennis Vilorio</a>, “People moving to rural areas tend to persistently favor more densely settled rural areas with attractive scenic qualities, or those near large cities. Fewer are moving to sparsely settled, less scenic, and more remote locations, which compounds economic development challenges in those areas.” </p>
<p>2020 census data will help to improve demographers’ calculations of similar statistics to show <a href="https://netmigration.wisc.edu/">rates and patterns of net migration</a>. This information can be used to help leaders better understand and plan for population shifts.</p>
<h2>Low rural turnout</h2>
<p>If many people don’t participate in the census, the data will be far less accurate. And rural people are less likely to take part.</p>
<p>In 2010, an average 73% of households <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2010/dec/2010-participation-rates.html">returned the mailed version of the form</a>. <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes/documentation/">My analysis of mail response rates by the rural-urban continuum codes</a> showed an average of 68% for non-metropolitan counties, compared with 75% for metropolitan counties. </p>
<p>Analysts have been trying to better understand <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfw040">why some populations are harder to count</a>. There are numerous barriers to participation in decennial censuses. Many people have limited knowledge about the census. Others distrust the government and are concerned about the confidentiality of their information. </p>
<p>Although rural America tends to do better on some indicators used to predict potential census participation, people who live in poverty and are isolated <a href="https://becountedmi2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2020-Census-Faces-Challenges-in-Rural-America.pdf">may be at a particular disadvantage</a>. </p>
<p>In 2020, for the first time, the census will offer an avenue for <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/planning-management/planning-docs/operational-plan.html">online participation</a>, with the hope this will make it easier for people to complete the questionnaire more efficiently. This is promising, but some rural places have <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/12/rural-and-lower-income-counties-lag-nation-internet-subscription.html">limited access to broadband internet service</a>.</p>
<h2>Encouraging participation</h2>
<p>Our research network cross-referenced <a href="https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/">Census Bureau data</a> with data on family and poverty characteristics to identify communities we thought would be likely to have lower participation in 2020. </p>
<p>Identifying two rural places and one urban, we held workshops with local stakeholders, including teachers, nonprofit leaders and clergy. We discussed challenges and opportunities for participating in the 2020 census, messaging that would resonate in their communities, and strategies for further engagement. </p>
<iframe width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="" src="https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=64f6a4d47e864b9699af6ce6338d49bd&extent=-16906650.4472%2C1569692.3102%2C-4852836.8348%2C7880333.3654%2C102100"></iframe>
<figure><figcaption>The Census Bureau assigns each area a ‘low response score,’ a predicted rate of how many people will not respond to the census.</figcaption></figure>
<p>People can promote participation in the 2020 census by discussing it with family members, neighbors, church members and work colleagues. <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/factsheets/2019/comm/2020-confidentiality-factsheet.pdf">Materials</a> <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/library/fact-sheets.html">available from the U.S. Census Bureau</a> can help. </p>
<p>We also emphasize that people can form or join <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-complete-count-committees.html">Complete Count Committees</a> which promote an accurate count of the population in their communities. For example, participants might coordinate census promotion campaigns within churches, or develop community celebrations that feature the civic duty of census participation.</p>
<p>The 2020 census will be important for all Americans, but for those who live, work and care about rural communities and small towns, it will be critically important. I hope that Americans can work together to make sure that rural areas are accurately counted if they are to get their fair share. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As Director of the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies, John Green oversees the State Data Center of Mississippi, a collaborative partnership connecting data users and the U.S. Census Bureau involving projects with government agencies, foundations, and nonprofit organizations concerned with the Decennial Census and other public data. These include the U.S. Census Bureau and organizations with support from the Annie E. Casey Foundation and W.K. Kellogg Foundation.</span></em></p>People living in rural and small town America have much at stake in the 2020 census. But census participation tends to be lower in rural areas.John J. Green, Professor of Sociology, University of MississippiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1209572019-08-08T13:13:26Z2019-08-08T13:13:26ZTrump’s fight to count US citizens and non-citizens: 5 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287092/original/file-20190806-84215-sh9psl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A worker follows up during the 2020 census test run in Providence, R.I.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2018-census-test/photos.html">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. is still months away from the start of the 2020 census – but the decennial count of the country’s population is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/07/12/we-just-dodged-constitutional-crisis-with-census/">already controversial</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-to-hold-news-conference-on-census-as-he-mulls-executive-action-to-add-a-citizenship-question/2019/07/11/c0eb7cb6-a3c8-11e9-b8c8-75dae2607e60_story.html">After the Supreme Court’s decision at the end of June</a>, President Donald Trump conceded that the administration would no longer pursue <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/07/trump-administration-ends-effort-to-include-citizenship-question-on-2020-census/">a citizenship question on the 2020 U.S. Census</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, Trump announced that he signed an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-collecting-information-citizenship-status-connection-decennial-census/">executive order</a> instructing the executive branch to share all citizenship data with the U.S. Census. He suggested that the augmented data could be used in the apportionment and redistricting processes.</p>
<p>I have studied and taught <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Hr8LJkQAAAAJ&hl=en">how the U.S. apportions seats in Congress and redraws congressional districts</a> for two decades. These topics have been of paramount importance to democratic representation since, at least, the founding of the U.S. And both are critical for the future legitimacy of the American government after the 2020 Census. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287090/original/file-20190806-84199-jtf27w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump speaks during an event about the census in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington on July 11.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/85b4822ff6a94936a113c13e8426265d/25/0">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Who’s included in congressional apportionment?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Constitution calls on “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxiv">the whole number of persons in each state</a>” – also referred to as “total population” – to be counted by the U.S. Census. This number is used to determine how many congressional seats each state receives each decade. </p>
<p>The Census’ count currently includes everyone. It does not matter whether or not someone is a citizen, a voter, a minor or a felon.</p>
<p>Even though the constitutional definition seems intuitive, <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/public-sector/congressional-apportionment/about/historical-perspective.html">there have been deviations from it</a>. </p>
<p>African American slaves were counted as just three-fifth of a person, pointedly not a citizen, in the total apportionment population until 1870. And only in 1940 were all Native Americans considered part of the total population. </p>
<p>Furthermore, overseas federal employees, service members and their families were first included in the total population in 1970, but were then not included in 1980. They have been re-included since 1990.</p>
<p>Apportionment’s total population has always included citizens and non-citizens alike. </p>
<h2>2. How many non-citizens are in the US?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Census has not asked a citizenship question on its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/12/us/the-long-history-of-the-us-government-asking-americans-whether-they-are-citizens.html">commonly used short form since the 1950 census</a>. </p>
<p>Still, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/about.html">American Community Survey</a> (ACS), which is conducted by the U.S. Commerce Department every year since 2005, does include citizenship questions.</p>
<p>According to the ACS, the percentage of all non-citizens in the U.S. has decreased slightly from 2005 through 2017, the last year for which data is available. In 2017, non-citizens made up 6.9% of the overall population, which corresponds to about 22.6 million people.</p>
<p>In 2017, the state with the largest percentage of non-citizens was California (13%), followed by Texas, New Jersey, Nevada and New York. The states with the smallest percent of non-citizens are West Virginia, Montana, Mississippi, Maine and South Dakota.</p>
<p><iframe id="BZk71" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BZk71/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>3. How would apportionment change if non-citizens were excluded?</h2>
<p>Say the estimated number of non-citizens in 2010 had been removed from the 2010 apportionment population.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/20/democrats-are-considering-making-dc-state-heres-what-it-would-take/?utm_term=.ecbbf6863fa1">current method</a> to apportion to the states the 435 seats in the U.S. House, every state receives at least one seat. </p>
<p>According to their citizen populations, 15 states would be affected. Five states would lose members from their current congressional delegations: California would lose five seats, Texas would lose two seats, and Florida, New York and Washington would each lose one seat. </p>
<p>These 10 seats would be added, one seat each, to the current delegations of Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. </p>
<p>Given the recent partisan history of these states, this overall transfer of seats would likely provide Republicans with more electoral opportunities. </p>
<p>If the U.S. House were reapportioned with the most current 2017 population and citizenship data, the changes would be a little less severe. With the non-citizens not counted, three states would lose House seats: California (four seats), Texas (two seats) and Florida (one seat). </p>
<p>Seven states would also gain an additional seat: Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.</p>
<h2>4. How would excluding non-citizens affect Americans?</h2>
<p>In terms of congressional apportionment, citizens and non-citizens have linked fates.</p>
<p>If non-citizens were removed from the total population count, the same number of citizens could be served by fewer representatives. For example, citizens in states like California, Texas and Florida could have their representational power in the U.S. House diluted from what it otherwise would be. </p>
<p>One way to measure representational power is to calculate the percent of a representative that each person has. According to the 2017 data, if non-citizens are not counted in the apportionment, a citizen of California would lose about 8% of her representational power, and a Texan would lose about 5%.</p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens and non-citizens alike use the roads, schools and the rest of the public infrastructure. But, by not including non-citizens, these same states could receive fewer <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/working-papers/Uses-of-Census-Bureau-Data-in-Federal-Funds-Distribution.pdf">federal funds</a>, which would decrease the amount of federal funds that ultimately flow to citizens.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287089/original/file-20190806-84199-1cdp92x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators gathered at the Supreme Court as the justices finished the term with key decisions on gerrymandering and the 2020 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Supreme-Court-Final-Day/f46dcc78af544bf59022f665795c0bac/111/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. What will happen next?</h2>
<p>Despite Trump’s executive order, it is unlikely that survey data, such as the ACS’, could be used to augment the Census data for the purposes of changing congressional apportionment. In <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2001/01-714">Utah v. Evans in 2002</a>, Republicans vehemently argued, and the Supreme Court agreed, that surveys of a portion of the U.S. population could not be used to adjust the actual enumeration by the U.S. Census.</p>
<p>However, if this apportionment standard were to change, there would be considerable political and financial consequences. But, it would also likely have greater affects on redistricting.</p>
<p>Any change in the apportionment measure of total population would certainly give the court and the states much more latitude to change the measure for the redistricting population. </p>
<p>Redistricting, however, is not limited by fixed state boundaries in the same way as apportionment is. Changing the population definition for redistricting – along with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-says-federal-courts-dont-have-a-role-in-deciding-partisan-gerrymandering-claims/2019/06/27/2fe82340-93ab-11e9-b58a-a6a9afaa0e3e_story.html">newly expanded power to redistrict</a>, which was recently provided by the Supreme Court – would produce the potential for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-consultants-private-files-viewed-in-gerrymandering-case/2019/07/02/5820394c-9cb6-11e9-83e3-45fded8e8d2e_story.html">extreme gerrymandering</a> and could even more severely reduce citizen’s representational power.</p>
<p>[<em>Want to learn more about the 2020 census?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/census-72">Sign up here for our new newsletter course</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120957/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey W Ladewig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2020 census and congressional apportionment have dominated the headlines in recent months. What could it all mean for the average American voter?Jeffrey W Ladewig, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1195672019-06-28T18:36:03Z2019-06-28T18:36:03ZWhy the Supreme Court asked for an explanation of the 2020 census citizenship question<p>Immediately before the Supreme Court’s summer recess each year, it releases decisions in some of its most challenging and significant cases. </p>
<p>This year was no different. </p>
<p>On June 27, the last day of the term, the Supreme Court decided <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/department-of-commerce-v-new-york/">Department of Commerce v. New York</a>, a case exploring legal issues surrounding the addition of the question, “Is this person a citizen of the United States?,” on the 2020 census. </p>
<p>The decision is of great practical importance, as the final numbers generated by the census will affect representation in Congress, allocation of federal dollars and much more. The political implications of the citizenship question made the case politically volatile and controversial.</p>
<p>In an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts, the court chose not to accept
what may well be the Trump administration’s pretext for the citizenship question to mask partisan political and discriminatory motives. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/author/kevinjohnson/">scholar of</a> <a href="https://law.ucdavis.edu/faculty/johnson/">immigration law and civil rights</a>, I was not surprised by the outcome. The court decided the case in a way that will help maintain its legitimacy in the future. </p>
<h2>Census influence</h2>
<p>Because the census is conducted only once every 10 years, it can affect close to a generation of policies. </p>
<p>By influencing electoral districting, the census can affect political representation in Congress, as well as the relative numbers in Congress from the two major political parties. That, in turn, affects how federal money is spent and which groups and programs are preferred or disfavored. Put simply, the census has dramatic political impacts on the entire nation.</p>
<p>In 2018, Wilbur Ross, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce under President Trump, announced that the Bureau of the Census intended to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/23/630562915/see-200-years-of-twists-and-turns-of-census-citizenship-questions">add a question about U.S. citizenship</a> in the form sent to all households in the 2020 census. The proposed question would in fact be a readdition, because some form of that question had been in census questionnaires in the past. </p>
<p>The Trump administration said that the citizenship question would improve enforcement of the Voting Rights Act, which protects the voting rights of citizens. However, opponents claimed that the question was motivated by partisan political considerations, including voter suppression and an effort to systematically undercount immigrants, particularly Hispanics.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, a count of noncitizens could be beneficial to policymakers and researchers. </p>
<p>For example, a city could use the number to establish a need for resources to facilitate naturalization and other immigrant services. States with large immigrant populations would know about how much federal funding was needed to cover immigrants’ costs incurred in public education and English as a second language courses.</p>
<p>However, civil rights groups and immigrant rights activists were concerned that, especially with President Trump at the helm, a citizenship question would <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/why-census-asking-about-citizenship-such-problem">discourage immigrants from participating in the census</a>, for fear that answering the question truthfully might lead to their removal from the country by the very administration collecting the data.</p>
<p>If that turned out to be true, immigrants might well be chilled from participating in the census. The result would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/adding-a-citizenship-question-to-the-2020-census-would-cost-some-states-their-congressional-seats-113166">an inaccurate – and low – count of immigrants</a>.</p>
<h2>The decision</h2>
<p>The court held that the proposed citizenship question does not violate the Constitution, which vests broad discretion in the U.S. government in deciding how to conduct the census. </p>
<p>They also ruled that Ross’ decision did not violate the Administrative Procedure Act. This act requires that certain procedures be followed in administrative decisions and that agency officials offer reasoned and rational explanations for their decisions. </p>
<p>However, Roberts, in a part of the opinion joined by Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan, ruled that the Department of Commerce needed to provide further explanation for adding the question. The court said that the Department of Commerce’s claim that the citizenship question was solely designed to help Voting Right Act enforcement seemed “contrived.” </p>
<p>The chief justice further wrote that, “Our review is deferential, but we are ‘not required to exhibit a naivete from which ordinary citizens are free,’” quoting legendary Judge Henry Friendly.</p>
<p>Some court observers were surprised by the outcome. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/04/argument-analysis-divided-court-seems-ready-to-uphold-citizenship-question-on-2020-census/">After oral argument in April</a>, some had predicted that five justices favored the citizenship question and that <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/04/judicial-enumeration-amy-howe-and-kimberly-robinson-count-five-justices-for-the-citizenship-question-in-department-of-commerce-v-new-york/">the court would allow the question</a> for the 2020 census. </p>
<p>However, in May, new evidence came to light that that the citizenship question was adopted for <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/05/challengers-in-census-case-notify-justices-about-new-evidence/">reasons other than enforcing the Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/12/18663009/census-citizenship-question-congress">Emails show that</a>, for months, Wilbur Ross had inquired about adding a citizenship question, asking around to see if it was a popular idea. Commerce Department officials had tried to get other agencies involved to “clear certain legal thresholds” to ask the question. As almost an afterthought, Ross and the Department of Commerce asked the Department of Justice to send them a letter providing the Voting Rights Act rationale for the citizenship question. </p>
<p>None of this evidence tends to support the conclusion that enforcing the Voting Rights Act was the true reason that the Department of Commerce sought to add a citizenship question to Census 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A citizenship question could discourage immigrants from participating in the 2020 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-york-nyusajanuary-12-2010-sample-1379490593?src=pGMg0x6R-kjZ-OToYS9kSQ-1-4&studio=1">rblfmr/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Supreme Court’s legitimacy</h2>
<p>As former New York Times Supreme Court reporter and Yale lecturer Linda Greenhouse has written, Roberts is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/opinion/supreme-court-census-roberts.html">concerned with the perceived legitimacy of the court</a>. </p>
<p>Chief Justice Roberts has gone so far as to criticize President Trump for criticizing an “Obama judge.” <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/21/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-out-trump-for-his-attack-on-a-judge-1011203">In a November 2018 statement</a> virtually unheard of from a chief justice, Roberts said “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges … What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.” The chief was defending the independence – and in effect the very legitimacy – of the federal courts, which he understood to be under attack by the president.</p>
<p>Given the weak justification for the citizenship question, rubber-stamping the citizenship question without further inquiry could well have been a stain on the court’s legitimacy. </p>
<p>Just days before the Supreme Court handed down the decision in the census case, an appellate court had opened the door for further investigation into <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/06/government-responds-in-census-case-4th-circuit-remands-maryland-case-for-more-fact-finding/">whether anti-Hispanic animus played a role</a> in the secretary’s decision to include the citizenship question. </p>
<p>This is a serious charge. To allow the citizenship question to be added to the census, in light of uninvestigated claims of anti-Hispanic animus and in the face of unquestionable anti-Hispanic impacts, could undermine the public trust in – and the very legitimacy of – the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>It has historically been challenging to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/04/728034176/2020-census-could-lead-to-worst-undercount-of-black-latinx-people-in-30-yearsoop">facilitate immigrant participation in the census</a>. In immigrant communities, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/5/17071648/impact-trump-immigration-policy-children">fear of government</a> has increased during the Trump administration. Indeed, just in the last few weeks, Trump threatened <a href="https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/immigration/2019/06/trump-delays-immigration-raids-giving-democrats-two-weeks-to-change-asylum-laws-.html">an imminent mass removal campaign</a>, only to temporarily halt the effort at the eleventh hour. </p>
<p>The court might well have learned a lesson from its decision to uphold the travel ban last year, also on the last day of the term. In <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-965">Trump v. Hawaii</a>, a 5-4 majority in an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts overlooked the evidence of the Trump administration’s anti-Muslim intent in adopting the ban and upheld it based on national security grounds. <a href="https://law.stanford.edu/2018/06/26/trump-v-hawaii-a-roadmap-for-new-racial-origin-quotas/">The decision was widely criticized</a> by scholars and civil rights and immigrant advocates as authorizing discrimination.</p>
<p>Time will tell how the Trump administration proceeds from here. However, it would appear that a rational – not a “contrived” – explanation would be required.</p>
<h2>The legal rationale</h2>
<p>The court’s decision, for the most part, does not state explicitly – which would be unprecedented – that it sought to protect its legitimacy. And it avoids going too far in criticizing the decision to use the citizenship question. </p>
<p>Indeed, the court found that the decision to include the question was not “arbitrary and capricious” in violation of the law. It simply said that the Department of Commerce’s explanation was not convincing and a rational – not a “contrived” – explanation would be required.</p>
<p>It is telling that Roberts, who is keenly concerned about the court’s legitimacy, sided with the liberal justices in order to send the case back to the agency. </p>
<p>Roberts, who famously said during his confirmation hearings that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/09/12/roberts.statement/">a judge’s job is to call “balls and strikes,”</a> resists the notion that the Supreme Court is a political institution – and did so, I believe, with this decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The political implications of the citizenship question made this case politically volatile and controversial – even for the Supreme Court.Kevin Johnson, Dean and Professor of Public Interest Law and Chicana/o Studies, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1182462019-06-06T13:27:44Z2019-06-06T13:27:44ZWhat would happen to Congress if Washington, DC became the 51st state?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277732/original/file-20190603-69051-1yxzlcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">D.C. would likely elect Democratic representatives and senators.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/washington-dc-cherry-blossom-1364554622?src=gsW2arLGiC7unb9Oy-Cbzg-1-10">Fang Deng/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For years, the official motto of the District of Columbia has been “Taxation without representation.” </p>
<p>The residents of Washington, D.C. do not have representation in the U.S. House or in the Senate. People who live in the district, on average, pay <a href="https://www.lipseyandassociates.com/differences-va-md-dc-taxation/">higher federal and local taxes</a>, but they have no say about how their tax dollars are spent, and no vote on issues such as health care, Social Security and foreign policy.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BWeHM5kAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a sociologist researching demographic and political behavior</a>, I do not think that this is fair.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278146/original/file-20190605-40706-1a7scbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The next U.S. flag?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_flags_of_the_United_States#/media/File:A_possible_flag_of_the_United_States_of_America_displaying_51_stars.svg">Milan Suvajac/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On May 29, the House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-was-hesitant-about-dc-statehood-now-i-believe-its-the-only-path-forward/2019/05/30/620274e6-818d-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html">announced in an op-ed in The Washington Post</a> that he will co-sponsor a bill with Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton, the nonvoting member of the U.S. House from the district, to make the nation’s capital the 51st state of the U.S. </p>
<p>If the district becomes the 51st state, its residents would finally have representation. </p>
<h2>How the district sizes up</h2>
<p>“Defending the new Constitution, James Madison assured his fellow Americans that residents of this new capital district would happily live there ‘as they will have had their voice in the election of the government which is to exercise authority over them,’” wrote Hoyer in his op-ed. “But for 228 years, our government has denied them that voice.” </p>
<p>Statehood for the district has <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/01/28/how_about_a_grand_compromise_on_dc_statehood_139289.html">been opposed by Republicans</a> in the past, mainly because the district is heavily Democratic. </p>
<p>About 76% of the <a href="https://www.dcboe.org/Data-Resources/Voter-Registration-Statistics">registered voters in the district</a> are Democrats, while just 6% are Republicans. Most of the others have no party affiliation, though a few are Libertarians or Green Party members.</p>
<p>This occurs even though, with over 700,000 residents, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population#State_rankings">the district is larger in population</a> than two states: Vermont and Wyoming. Two other states have just a few more residents than the district, Alaska with 737,000 people and North Dakota with 760,000. </p>
<p>But those four states each have one representative in the U.S. House and two senators. Washington, D.C. has neither a representative nor any senators.</p>
<p><iframe id="QsKrb" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QsKrb/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Changing the political math</h2>
<p>What will happen politically if the district becomes the 51st state? How will the distribution of representatives and senators among the states change? </p>
<p>The answers show why Republicans consistently vote against statehood for the district.</p>
<p>Every state has two senators. Currently, the Senate has 45 Democrats, plus two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. There are 53 Republicans in the Senate. </p>
<p>If Washington, D.C. is granted statehood, its two senators will almost certainly be Democrats, giving the Democrats 49 out of the now 102 seats in the Senate. This will slightly reduce the Republican majority. The Democrats would now only need two more senators to have the same number as the Republicans. </p>
<p>In 2020, the Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats and the Democrats 12 seats. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-will-be-competitive-again-in-2020-but-republicans-are-favored/">The most vulnerable Republican seats</a>, according to FiveThirtyEight, are Maine, Colorado and Arizona. </p>
<p>With the two new Democrats from Washington D.C., the Democrats would only need to win two of these Republican seats, and hold 11 of their 12 seats, to have a majority in the Senate.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are 435 seats in the U.S. House. Every state receives one seat automatically. The balance, 385 seats, are distributed according to the size of the populations of the states. </p>
<p><iframe id="ZP3m2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZP3m2/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>If a new state is added to the U.S., there will not be an increase in the number of House seats. <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reapportionment_Act_of_1929">The Reapportionment Act of 1929</a> capped the number at 435. </p>
<p>One exception to this “rule” occurred with <a href="https://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/If-Puerto-Rico-gets-statehood-some-states-lose-11237566.php">the admission of Alaska and Hawaii</a> in the late 1950s. For one session of Congress, there were 438 seats: one for Alaska and two for Hawaii. However, with the results from the next census in 1960, the House reverted back to its basic number of 435 seats. </p>
<p>The 2020 census is less than one year away. If the district is granted statehood, it will be awarded one seat in the 2020 allocation. </p>
<p>That means another state will lose a seat. Who will lose if the district becomes the 51st state?</p>
<p>With my former student, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ok6grfwAAAAJ&hl=en">Amanda Baumle</a>, now a professor of sociology at the University of Houston, I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12230">projected the populations</a> for the 50 states for 2020 and used these data to apportion the U.S. House. </p>
<p>In the 2010 apportionment of the House, Arizona – a traditionally red state that voted for Trump in 2016 – received nine seats. Professor Baumle and I project that Arizona will receive 10 seats in the 2020 apportionment. </p>
<p>However, if the district becomes a state before January 2021 and automatically receives a seat, then there will only be 384 seats to apportion. That would mean that Arizona will end up with nine seats. </p>
<p><iframe id="TV2mG" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TV2mG/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>An unlikely future</h2>
<p>Statehood discussions for the district have a long history, going back to the 1950s. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/11/22/house-turns-down-statehood-for-dc/93c04aac-5635-4c5e-899a-9584e2660650/">A bill even made it onto the House floor</a> in 1993, but it was defeated in the House of Representatives by a vote of 277 to 153. </p>
<p>For the district to become the 51st state today, the Hoyer-Norton bill would need to first pass in the House. Given the Democratic majority in the House, I expect it will pass. </p>
<p>Then it needs to go to the Senate. I do not expect it to get a vote in the Republican-controlled Senate. Right now, <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/30/steny-hoyer-backs-dc-statehood/">a Washington, D.C. statehood bill</a> has the support of just over 30 senators, according to The Washington Times. I can’t imagine many Republicans voting for statehood for the district. </p>
<p>But if the Democrats win the 2020 presidential election, along with the Senate, while maintaining control of the House, then statehood for the district could become a real possibility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new bill aims to give the District of Columbia representation in Congress.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1162452019-06-05T11:55:12Z2019-06-05T11:55:12ZWill children in your state get the support they need? It depends on the 2020 census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274195/original/file-20190513-183100-h6x6tx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Census struggles to accurately count the number of children under 5.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/family-childhood-fatherhood-leisure-people-concept-452350492?src=c64ZLYnX7tNRJDFpMfx5OQ-1-67">Syda Productions/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first three years of a child’s life are the most crucial for brain development. In fact, children raised in poverty have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.1475">less brain tissue</a> compared to their counterparts.</p>
<p>The U.S. has educational and social programs that can help children in poverty succeed – like <a href="https://eclkc.ohs.acf.hhs.gov/programs/article/early-head-start-programs">Early Head Start</a>, an intensive program designed to promote young children’s development. </p>
<p>But, every year, children are left on waiting lists for programs like this because the federal government <a href="https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/these-are-our-numbers-importance-2020-census">did not allocate enough money for all children in need of services.</a></p>
<p>Americans want children to have every opportunity to develop to their fullest potential. And yet, if the U.S. does not count all young children in the upcoming 2020 census, states will not be able to obtain enough funding to provide children with critical support.</p>
<p>This past year, <a href="https://ssrc.msstate.edu/staff/ssrc-staff/heather-hanna/">as co-director</a> of Mississippi KIDS COUNT, I had a chance to lead a project that explored what factors might promote or discourage census participation among Mississippi families. Our project revealed some reasons why states may struggle to count all their children.</p>
<h2>Counting children</h2>
<p>The census occurs every 10 years, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution. The next census will be conducted in 2020. Every person living on U.S. soil on Census Day, April 1, 2020, must be counted. </p>
<p>In past censuses, children ages 0 to 5 have proven the hardest group to count. In 2010, approximately <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-2010-undercount-children-characterisitcs-by-age.pdf">1 million children</a> in this age range were not counted. </p>
<p>Sometimes children are undercounted due to their living arrangements, such as having divorced parents or living with a nonparent family member like an aunt or grandmother. Sometimes the entire family is missed because the parents are young and less likely to participate, or they rent, and forms get lost in the mail.</p>
<p>Furthermore, many states have large areas that are considered hard to count by the U.S. Census Bureau because citizens in these areas can be difficult to locate or reluctant to respond. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that <a href="https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/?latlng=32.60086,-88.82737&z=7&query=states::28&promotedfeaturetype=states&arp=arpRaceEthnicity&layers=counties">27% of Mississippians</a> live in hard-to-count neighborhoods. </p>
<iframe width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="" src="https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=64f6a4d47e864b9699af6ce6338d49bd&extent=-16906650.4472%2C1569692.3102%2C-4852836.8348%2C7880333.3654%2C102100"></iframe>
<figure><figcaption>The Census Bureau assigns each area a ‘low response score,’ a predicted rate of how many people will not respond to the census.</figcaption></figure>
<p>The 2020 census will be the first in which most forms are completed online. However, many parts of the <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/reports-research/reports/broadband-progress-reports/2018-broadband-deployment-report">state lack high-speed internet</a> access.</p>
<h2>Funding for children</h2>
<p>Census counts of children are used to determine <a href="https://www.aecf.org/blog/2020-census-federal-funding-and-support-for-kids-tied-to-census-count/">federal funding levels</a> for schools, foster care, child care, nutrition programs, school lunches and public health insurance. </p>
<p>Using <a href="https://www.census.gov/research/data/planning_database/2018/">census data</a> and <a href="https://gwipp.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2181/f/downloads/GWIPP%20Reamer%20Fiscal%20Impacts%20of%20Census%20Undercount%20on%20FMAP-based%20Programs%2003-19-18.pdf">a George Washington University report</a>, our team estimated that just a 5% undercount of young children in Mississippi would cost the state US$100 million in federal dollars per year – for 10 years. </p>
<p>Imagine 100 children at school in need of a healthy lunch, but funding available for only 95 lunches, and you can see the potential for the census to affect the quality and quantity of support children receive. </p>
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<h2>Who’s missed in Mississippi</h2>
<p>For our project, we estimated where young children might be hardest to count within Mississippi’s hard-to-count areas, as established by the Census Bureau. This work pointed to locations for our project team to focus its efforts. </p>
<p>We held three community meetings in the northern, central and southern parts of the state. We invited all types of community stakeholders: librarians who can open their doors for the public to access the internet; teachers, ministers, extension agents, community workers and pediatricians who interact with children and families daily; and local policymakers. </p>
<p>We asked them to think and talk about ways to raise awareness of, and participation in, the census in their area. We also asked them about potential barriers to census participation among the families they interact with.</p>
<p>We learned that citizens in our neck of the woods have a deep distrust of outsiders coming into their communities and are uncertain about how the government will use the collected information. </p>
<p>We also discovered that literacy – reading, writing and technical competency – could play a major role in census response rates. Concerns that poor literacy skills could prevent census participation by residents in the area was a theme across the communities we visited.</p>
<h2>Census messaging</h2>
<p>Participants suggested having a robust education campaign led by trusted local messengers to inform residents about the census and options for how it can be completed. </p>
<p>For example, people can opt to complete the census over the telephone if literacy is an issue. Or, they can access the online form through a public venue if internet is not otherwise available.</p>
<p>In response, we created <a href="https://kidscount.ssrc.msstate.edu/data-research/mississippi-kids-count/mississippi-kids-count-reports/">targeted messaging</a> for Mississippians to explain what the census is, how data are used and that it’s illegal for the Census Bureau to share <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/reference/privacy_confidentiality/">private information</a>. </p>
<p>These messages are being disseminated among project participants and through the Mississippi KIDS COUNT network in the form of fact sheets. They emphasize that children’s programs, such as preschool and school lunch, can be underfunded if communities do not count all of their children. They also point to actions residents can take to ensure all children have the supports they need to develop to their fullest potential. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Census Bureau is <a href="http://www.pagregion.com/documents/committees/management/2017/Management-2017-03-08-Item-2i-CensusRoadTo2020Presentation.pdf">addressing these issues</a> by hiring local specialists to engage communities and encourage grassroots “get out the count” efforts. They’ve also invited community members to get involved in educating neighbors about the census through <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/complete_count.html">Complete Count Committees</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather L. Hanna received grant funding from the Annie E. Casey Foundation to conduct this research. </span></em></p>In 2010, approximately 1 million children under the age of 5 were not counted in the census. That meant less state funding for critical services like Early Head Start and SNAP.Heather L. Hanna, Assistant Research Professor and Research Fellow at Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158262019-04-22T17:54:24Z2019-04-22T17:54:24ZCan the census ask if you’re a citizen? Here’s what’s at stake in the Supreme Court battle over the 2020 census<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270285/original/file-20190422-28087-1nenqm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Citizenship may be included in the next census questionnaire.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-2020-census-document-form-ballpoint-790714156?src=pGMg0x6R-kjZ-OToYS9kSQ-1-0">Maria Dryfhout/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time in decades, the 2020 census might include a question asking whether or not each counted person is a citizen.</p>
<p>When Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross directed that the 2020 census include that question, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4424701-Wilbur-Ross-memo-2018-03-26-2.html">he claimed</a> that it was necessary to allow the Department of Justice to enforce the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which prohibits racial discrimination in voting, more effectively. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2018/mar/28/what-you-need-know-about-census-citizenship-questi/">Critics argue</a> that the government has other ways of obtaining the information to enforce that law and that asking about citizenship will discourage census participation, especially by Latinos.</p>
<p>If people don’t participate in the census, that could result in a less accurate population count. And that could have important political and financial implications for years to come. The census determines how many seats each state has in the House of Representatives. It’s also used to allocate federal funds for a wide range of purposes, including Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, school aid and highways. So the stakes are high.</p>
<p>That’s why <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/07/26/629773825/multi-state-lawsuit-against-census-citizenship-question-to-move-ahead">various groups have filed lawsuits</a> challenging the <a href="https://www.axios.com/census-citizenship-questions-lawsuit-illegal-immigration-0bf17da2-9ab7-4826-9857-ff20a130e34a.html">legality of the citizenship question</a>. Lower courts in New York, California and Maryland agreed that the question should not be asked. </p>
<p>On April 23, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/04/justices-will-review-challenge-to-census-citizenship-question-in-plain-english/">the Supreme Court</a> will hear the government’s appeal in the New York case. </p>
<h2>Getting to court</h2>
<p>The first question is whether courts have any authority over census disputes.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/701">The Administrative Procedure Act</a> says that courts may not review decisions that are “committed to agency discretion by law.” What’s more, language in the Constitution and the Census Act seems to confer virtually unfettered discretion on federal officials to design the census as they see fit. The Census Act, for example, authorizes the secretary of commerce to conduct the census “in such form and content as he may determine.”</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1970/1066">the Supreme Court has said</a> that this language probably won’t prevent courts from addressing the dispute about the citizenship question here. The justices have heard several challenges to aspects of previous censuses, and lower courts have heard many more. So the government’s efforts to dismiss the challenges to the citizenship question unsurprisingly have failed.</p>
<p>Even if the decision to include the citizenship question is subject to judicial review, the plaintiffs must have standing to sue. This means, most importantly, that they have suffered a legally cognizable injury. Speculative harms, or those that will occur too far down the road, don’t qualify. </p>
<p>The plaintiffs have claimed, relying in part on past research by the Census Bureau, that asking about citizenship will discourage participation in the census and that affected states and communities will lose congressional seats and federal funds as a result. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1991/91-860">Courts have accepted</a> this argument in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1991/91-1502">earlier census challenges</a>, but most of those cases arose after the census was taken rather than, as in this instance, before the census takes place. However, this difference shouldn’t matter, because the Supreme Court in 1999 <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1998/98-404">upheld a challenge to plans for the 2000 census</a>. </p>
<h2>Proving discrimination</h2>
<p>On the merits, the plaintiffs claim that the citizenship question is intended to discourage Latinos and other immigrants from participating in the 2020 census. They say that will produce an inaccurate count and therefore is unconstitutional.</p>
<p>The challengers cite many statements by President Trump, including <a href="http://time.com/4473972/donald-trump-mexico-meeting-insult/">his description of Mexicans as criminals and “rapists”</a> when he launched his campaign, as well as more recent statements that immigrants are “animals” who “infest” our nation. </p>
<p>They also cite evidence that the Commerce Department pressed the Justice Department to send its letter about the citizenship question under pressure from top White House aides such as Stephen Bannon. Moreover, Secretary Ross ordered the inclusion of the citizenship question over the objections of career Census Bureau demographers, who cited evidence that the question would deter participation in the census. This may suggest a departure from ordinary decision-making procedures. </p>
<p>To prevail on their constitutional challenge, the plaintiffs must prove that Secretary Ross intended to discriminate against immigrants when he ordered the inclusion of the citizenship question. It’s not clear whether President Trump’s statements will count for this purpose. <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-965">In the travel ban case</a>, for example, the Supreme Court downplayed the significance of his comments on Muslims. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court has been skeptical of discrimination claims in the absence of smoking-gun evidence. There might be circumstantial evidence of discriminatory intent, but it might not be powerful enough to prove the claim.</p>
<h2>Accurate counts</h2>
<p>Beyond the discrimination claim, the plaintiffs argue that the citizenship question violates the constitutional requirement that the census be an “actual enumeration” of the population. By discouraging participation, they claim that the question will lead to an inaccurate count. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/CAvRoss_MTDOrder_8.17.18.pdf">The lower courts</a> <a href="http://www.nysd.uscourts.gov/cases/show.php?db=special&id=645">have disagreed</a> about whether the plaintiffs must prove discriminatory intent to win under the Enumeration Clause. Even if they don’t, the Constitution does not require a perfect count. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/pol02-ma.pdf">Almost every census between 1820 and 1950</a> asked about citizenship. But the plaintiffs point out that immigration was a less fraught issue for most of that time. Asking about citizenship today has more troubling implications, they say, than in earlier times. This argument implies that the Constitution’s meaning can change, though it might be difficult to persuade a majority of the Supreme Court of that approach.</p>
<p>But the irregularities in Secretary Ross’s decision-making process might well have violated the Administrative Procedure Act. Agency decisions are supposed to be adopted through specified processes and based only on legally relevant information. This is where the Supreme Court most likely will focus its attention.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/court-strikes-down-controversial-census-citizenship-question">The lower courts concluded</a> that Secretary Ross improperly ignored the advice of the Census Bureau’s professional staff and six former census directors who served under both Republican and Democratic presidents. They warned that including the citizenship question in 2020 without adequate field testing would jeopardize the accuracy of the count and that other federal data were sufficient to enforce the Voting Rights Act. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-966/91015/20190306200050307_18-966tsUnitedStates.pdf">The government counters</a> that Secretary Ross reached a defensible conclusion, even if reasonable people might disagree, and that the Supreme Court should not second-guess him. </p>
<p>In the end, the decision will turn on whether the justices believe that these procedural irregularities mean that Secretary Ross lacked proper justification for ordering the inclusion of the citizenship question. That in turn might depend on how much the justices will defer to the executive branch.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-census-ask-if-youre-a-citizen-heres-whats-at-stake-in-court-battles-over-the-2020-census-101170">an article originally published on Sept. 11, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Entin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time in decades, the 2020 census will include a question asking whether or not each counted person is a citizen. On April 23, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on this idea.Jonathan Entin, Professor Emeritus of Law and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1131662019-03-18T10:43:29Z2019-03-18T10:43:29ZAdding a citizenship question to the 2020 census would cost some states their congressional seats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263061/original/file-20190310-86717-vj08lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An envelope containing a 2018 census letter mailed to a U.S. resident as part of the nation's only test run of the 2020 census.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Census-Citizenship-End-Run/a41365e59b6743c180fa5b95c20ec2ff/2/0">AP Photo/Michelle R. Smith</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A partisan battle is brewing over the 2020 census.</p>
<p>In March 2018, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross instructed the U.S. Census Bureau to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/15/692656180/supreme-court-to-decide-if-2020-census-includes-citizenship-question">add a new question to the 2020 questionnaire</a>, asking respondents whether they were citizens of the U.S.</p>
<p>This decision led to a host of legal challenges. Social scientists and many U.S. Census Bureau officials fear that the citizenship question could cause some immigrants, especially undocumented immigrants, not to fill out the questionnaire, out of they fear that the information could be used to arrest or deport them. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/05/11/610492880/many-noncitizens-plan-to-avoid-the-2020-census-test-run-indicates">A test run in Rhode Island</a> suggests that this is likely.</p>
<p>The case has now reached the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-census-citizenship-question-justice-department-supreme-court-trump-2019-01-24/">U.S. Supreme Court, which will decide</a> by June whether the question may be added.</p>
<p>A study I published on Feb. 25 with my former student, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ok6grfwAAAAJ&hl=en">Amanda Baumle</a>, now a professor of sociology at the University of Houston, found that adding the citizenship question will likely cause many million people to not respond to the census. That will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12230">reduce the official population of some states</a>, leading to political and economic harm.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263240/original/file-20190311-86686-13gxiio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed citizenship question.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/operations/planned-questions-2020-acs.pdf">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The census is conducted every 10 years to count the U.S. population. The U.S. Census Bureau then <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2527&context=lcp">uses these population numbers</a> to determine how the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are distributed. The number of seats that a state receives also determines the size of its delegation to the Electoral College.</p>
<p>In addition, a state’s total population dictates the amount of federal dollars that it receives. In 2015 alone, the federal government used census data to distribute more than <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/decennial/census-data-federal-funds.html">US$675 billion</a> to the states. So, it’s to a state’s economic advantage to have all its residents counted in the decennial census.</p>
<p>In our research, we projected the population of each state in 2020, assuming that the states’ annual population growth rates from 2010 to 2017 would continue through to 2020. We then used these data to predict how the U.S. House would be apportioned. </p>
<p>Our work suggests that, in 2020, there should be a net change of nine seats in the U.S. House. Texas should gain three seats; Florida, two; and Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Oregon, one. Nine states should lose one seat: Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.</p>
<p>However, if a question about citizenship is added in the 2020 census, that changes things. Researchers don’t know how many immigrants might not answer the questionnaire, so we looked at a number of scenarios, from only 10 percent avoiding the census, to all undocumented population doing so. </p>
<p>If all of the nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. do not respond and are not counted, then four states would lose a seat: Texas, Arizona, Florida and California. Meanwhile, Alabama, Minnesota, Montana and Ohio would gain one. </p>
<p>If 50 percent of the undocumented immigrants do not fill out the census questionnaire, then Texas, Arizona and California would lose a House seat, and Alabama, Minnesota and Montana would gain one.</p>
<p><iframe id="koNlf" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/koNlf/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>A citizenship question would also carry an economic cost for some states. Let’s look at Texas, my home state. In 2015, the federal government gave Texas $40 billion. This was based on the size of the Texas population, which numbered over 27 million residents. </p>
<p>Texas stands to lose a great deal, if not the most of any state, if a citizenship question is added. About 1.6 million people in Texas are undocumented. If half a million or more undocumented Texans do not respond to the 2020 census, Texas will lose several billion dollars in federal funds every year starting in 2021.</p>
<p>Republicans generally favor the inclusion of the citizenship question on the 2020 census, while Democrats are <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/02/15/2020-census-citizenship-question/">arguing against it</a>. But ultimately, if a citizenship question is added, Texas, Arizona and maybe Florida – all states that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president">voted for Trump in 2016</a> – stand to lose the most. In my opinion, this battle is best left unfought.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If undocumented immigrants choose not to fill out the questionnaire, then the official population of several states would deflate, costing them House seats and federal funding.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1093952019-02-20T11:37:09Z2019-02-20T11:37:09ZOne-party rule in 49 state legislatures reflects flaws in democratic process<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259863/original/file-20190220-136758-1kzrq8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Idaho State Capitol in Boise, Idaho. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Redistricting-Commission/d65474ccbbe742bd8339fa7c3ca0289c/2/0">AP Photo/Kimberlee Kruesi, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across the U.S., Republicans control 30 statehouses and the Democrats control 18. That is the largest number of one-party controlled <a href="http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-state-politics-governors-2019.html">state legislatures since 1914</a>.</p>
<p>Minnesota is currently <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/Elections/Legis_Control_2019_February%201st.pdf">the only state</a> where there’s not one party in control of the state legislature – Republicans have a majority in the state Senate chamber, while Democrats hold the state House chamber.</p>
<p>The Democrats’ so-called “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm elections was not big enough to put a major dent into the Republican’s control of state legislatures.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KWv69ZkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a scholar of state politics</a>, I believe partisan gerrymandering is a major reason why the Democratic wave fizzled as it reached the states. It is also why Democrats will likely have a difficult time regaining control in states as the redistricting process begins in 2020.</p>
<h2>The power of partisan gerrymandering</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/partisan-gerrymandering">Partisan gerrymandering</a> is the practice of drawing legislative districts that overwhelmingly favor one political party over another.</p>
<p>It creates safe seats for candidates of a particular party. Districts are created that contain mostly voters that support the majority party in the legislature, because in the redistricting process, the majority party gets to determine district boundaries. Recently, the Republican Party has simply been better at it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259864/original/file-20190220-136742-hsbdfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Old congressional districts of Pennsylvania on top, and the new redrawn districts on the bottom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2018-Gerrymandering/07483c8f239743dabd9113b8bf45243f/12/0">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In 2010, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-myths/five-myths-about-gerrymandering/2018/03/08/f9d1a230-2241-11e8-badd-7c9f29a55815_story.html?utm_term=.b18f2ba284f3">Republican Party used redistricting</a> to draw state legislative district lines that helped the party hold back the 2018 blue wave. </p>
<p>For example, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, a majority of people across each state voted for Democratic state House candidates. However, the Republican party still won a large majority of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/13/least-three-states-republicans-lost-popular-vote-won-house/?utm_term=.e38ff53e635f">legislative seats</a>. </p>
<p>Why? </p>
<p>Because Democratic voters were spread out across many districts with very few districts having a majority of Democratic voters. Democratic candidates would need to win the votes of many Republicans to win the seat.</p>
<h2>Policy impacts of partisan gerrymandering</h2>
<p>This historic number of state legislatures controlled by one party will have important consequences for redistricting in 2020. </p>
<p>In 2020, the United States government will count its citizens as it does every 10 years through <a href="https://www.census.gov/history/www/programs/demographic/decennial_census.html">the census</a>. </p>
<p>This also marks the beginning of the <a href="http://redistricting.lls.edu/what.php">2020 redistricting</a> cycle. In 1962, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in <a href="http://landmarkcases.c-span.org/Case/10/Baker-V-Carr">Baker v. Carr</a> that congressional districts must be drawn to ensure that each citizen receives equal representation in Congress and in state legislatures. So congressional and state legislative district lines will be redrawn to reflect population changes documented by the census. </p>
<p>In most states, the state legislature is responsible for drawing the new congressional and state legislative district lines. This means that when one party controls both chambers, they are likely to draw lines that protect and increase their hold on the legislature. There is little the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/153244000400400103">minority party</a> can do to stop them.</p>
<p>One-party control of state legislatures affects more than just redistricting. It also makes it easier for the party in power to adopt <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/elj.2017.0452">more extreme public policies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Democrats-outline-2019-priorities-13371703.php">Democratic controlled states</a> like New York, these may include passage of laws that protect the rights of laborers, women, immigrants and LGBTQ people and increase restrictions on gun ownership. In Republican controlled states like Texas, laws might aim at protecting the rights of <a href="https://www.texasgop.org/priorities/">gun owners and the life of the unborn</a>. Some of these policies may not match the preferences of the greater public in a state.</p>
<p>When partisan gerrymandering limits electoral competition, legislators worry less about re-election. Less worry about re-election can mean less need to appeal to the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3031604">full range of constituents</a> in their districts when passing laws. </p>
<p>For example, the influential conservative nonprofit the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, has successfully helped legislators introduce and pass legislation in many states that support a national conservative agenda. ALEC does this by <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/alecs-influence-over-lawmaking-in-state-legislatures/">writing the legislation and providing it to legislators</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://stateinnovation.org">State Innovation Exchange</a>, a progressive nonprofit, provides research, training and policy expertise to state legislators interested in supporting a national progressive agenda. Their goal is to help state legislators introduce and pass progressive public policies.</p>
<h2>Is change in the air?</h2>
<p>As partisan gerrymandering has become <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-gerrymandering-is-getting-worse-105182">more prevalent and extreme</a>, citizens have become increasingly disenchanted and <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/10/04/few-support-partisan-gerrymandering">less supportive of the process</a>. </p>
<p>In 2017, the <a href="https://www.lwv.org">League of Women Voters</a> – a nonpartisan organization that encourages informed and active participation in government – sued the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania arguing that the state’s congressional map violated the state’s constitution. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court <a href="http://www.pacourts.us/news-and-statistics/cases-of-public-interest/league-of-women-voters-et-al-v-the-commonwealth-of-pennsylvania-et-al-159-mm-2017">ruled</a> that the districts favored Republicans in a way that undercut Pennsylvania’s voters’ ability to exercise their state constitutional right to vote in free and equal elections. In the ruling, <a href="http://www.pacourts.us/assets/files/setting-6061/file-6852.pdf?cb=df65be">the court stated</a> that the congressional map “was designed to dilute the votes of those who in prior elections voted for the party not in power in order to give the party in power a lasting electoral advantage.”</p>
<p>As a result, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court invalidated the districts and drew a more competitive map itself. The new map led to the election of a congressional delegation that better reflects the party affiliation of Pennsylvania voters. </p>
<p>Currently, partisan gerrymandering litigation is pending in <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/print/17671">12 states</a>. A <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Extreme%20Maps%205.16_0.pdf">2017 Brennan Center report</a> analyzed the congressional district maps. They found consistent and high partisan bias in a number of states.</p>
<p>In 2018, voters in Michigan, Missouri, Colorado and Utah voted to make the <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/midterm-elections-2018-voters-draw-gerrymandering-line/">redistricting process nonpartisan</a>. They join Arizona, California, Idaho, Washington, Montana and Alaska in using independent redistricting commissions that are outside the influence of the legislature to draw legislative district lines. Most of these commissions have only existed since the late 1990s and early 2000s. The one exception is Washington, which adopted its <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/creation-of-redistricting-commissions.aspx">independent redistricting commission</a> in 1983.</p>
<p>A number of states, like Ohio, have also <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/2009-redistricting-commissions-table.aspx">adopted reforms</a> that give the minority party a larger voice in the process, but will still do little to stop the adoption of a partisan map. The hope is that the amount of bias will decrease.</p>
<p>Studies have shown that nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting commissions lead to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/153244000900900202">more competitive districts</a> and potentially better representation for citizens. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, Colorado and Utah could be the start of a trend. The widespread adoption of nonpartisan or bipartisan commissions could lead to representation that is more responsive to citizen interests. Responsive governments are good for citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nancy Martorano Miller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The majority of US state legislatures are controlled by Republicans because legislative districts are drawn to favor them. Voters are catching on, but change will be slow.Nancy Martorano Miller, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.