tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/air-pollution-2452/articlesAir pollution – The Conversation2024-03-22T12:33:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259862024-03-22T12:33:52Z2024-03-22T12:33:52ZEPA’s new auto emissions standard will speed the transition to cleaner cars, while also addressing consumer and industry concerns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583580/original/file-20240321-17-nik9ky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C12%2C8588%2C5729&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Charging bays at the Electrify America indoor electric vehicle charging station in San Francisco.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectricVehiclesFancyChargers/c523cbda2a68423595229884d4da249b/photo">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-model">strict new emissions limits</a> on March 20, 2024, for cars built from 2027 through 2032. The final rule for Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards caps a process that started almost a year earlier, when the Biden administration first proposed groundbreaking regulations that would essentially require automakers to make a <a href="https://theconversation.com/boosting-ev-market-share-to-67-of-us-car-sales-is-a-huge-leap-but-automakers-can-meet-epas-tough-new-standards-203663">substantial pivot toward electrification</a>.</p>
<p>The original proposal met significant pushback from carmakers and unions, who argued that the industry <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/18/epa-electric-vehicles-car-rules/">needed more time to switch</a> from gas-powered cars to EVs. As a result, while the final target that this rule sets is very similar to the one that was initially proposed, the timetable in the final rule – especially in the earlier years – is relatively relaxed. </p>
<p>That means more carbon emissions in the short run. Politics is inevitably an important consideration in regulating major industries.</p>
<p>The new rule is projected to cut carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">by nearly 50% in model year 2032</a> relative to existing standards. This requires a broad shift toward EVs, but automakers have many options for complying. </p>
<p>For example, they could emphasize producing battery-electric vehicles or more mixed fleets that include large shares of <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a45498641/types-of-hybrid-cars-pros-and-cons-explained/">hybrids and plug-in hybrids</a>, plus cleaner gas-powered cars. EPA projects that under the rule, in model years 2030-32, battery-electric vehicles may account for <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">up to 56% of new cars</a>, up from <a href="https://apnews.com/article/epa-electric-vehicles-emissions-limits-climate-biden-e6d581324af51294048df24269b5d20a">7.6% in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=h-2TvzUAAAAJ&hl=en">the electric vehicle industry and adoption of EVs</a>, I believe the new rule will nevertheless push electrification nationwide. There’s a lot of latent demand for this technology throughout the country, and this regulation will help bring that supply to broader populations. It also is likely to spur more installation of chargers and other supporting infrastructure.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The new rule will help slow climate change and save billions of dollars in health care costs.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Impacts on consumers</h2>
<p>Traditionally, new fuel efficiency and emissions standards directly affect vehicle costs and often lead to higher prices at the dealership. However, the EPA projects that in the long term, driving electric vehicles, which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/electric-vehicle-charging-price-vs-gasoline/">cost less to fuel and maintain than gas-powered cars</a>, will save owners <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">US$6,000 on average</a> over the life of a new car. </p>
<p>Moreover, EVs bring broader benefits, such as improved air quality and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, which benefit society as a whole. </p>
<p>Fossil fuel combustion generates many harmful pollutants, including fine particulates, which have been linked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/heart-attacks-cancer-dementia-premature-deaths-4-essential-reads-on-the-health-effects-driving-epas-new-fine-particle-air-pollution-standard-223057">a range of negative health effects</a>. The EPA estimates that air pollution reductions triggered by the new rule will generate <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">US$13 billion in annual health benefits</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C4QmEsvutYQ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building confidence in batteries</h2>
<p>One important feature of the new rule is that for the first time, the EPA has set forth explicit requirements for monitoring and ensuring the durability of EV batteries. This step recognizes that battery longevity is a pivotal factor in EVs’ value proposition and environmental impact. </p>
<p>The regulations delineate two primary benchmarks: The battery must retain at least 80% of its original capacity at five years or 62,000 miles and at least 70% after eight years or 100,000 miles. These requirements will help to standardize the <a href="https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last">wide variability in battery degradation</a> between different vehicle models. </p>
<p>Importantly, the health of batteries must be tracked via a monitor in the car that measures what is known as the vehicle’s state of certified energy – the amount of battery capacity left at full charge after accounting for degradation – and displays it to the driver. EV owners will have constant information about the health of their battery, expressed as a percentage of what the battery had when it was brand new. This feature will be especially useful for people buying used EVs, since it will help them assess how much battery power the car still has at the time of purchase.</p>
<p>These and other battery durability and warranty requirements are likely to play a pivotal role in the EV market, influencing both manufacturers’ engineering choices and consumers’ purchasing decisions. By setting clear standards, the EPA is driving the industry toward more robust and reliable battery technologies, which could enhance the overall attractiveness of EVs and accelerate their market penetration.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Biden speaks to reporters from the wheel of a new pickup truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583581/original/file-20240321-18-ge6th9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden, a self-described ‘car guy,’ drives a Ford F-150 Lightning electric truck on May 18, 2021, in Dearborn, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectricVehiclesFederalFleet/8d61a7311ee84326b163a1cbd0ac7219/photo">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
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<h2>When is a plug-in running on electricity?</h2>
<p>Another item in the new regulations shows how the EPA has attempted to address manufacturers’ concerns. Since plug-in hybrids, or PHEVs, can run on either electricity or gasoline, regulators need some basis for determining how often they rely on one versus the other. The number that experts use in these situations, called the utility factor, is a calculation of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj14110301">what fraction of the time a PHEV drives on electricity</a>.</p>
<p>Many researchers had argued that the EPA had <a href="https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf">overestimated the utility factor</a> and warned that inflating the extent to which PHEVs operated on electric power could lead to regulations that put too much priority on these vehicles. Under the newly finalized regulations, the agency has adjusted the calculation to reflect a better understanding of how these vehicles operate in the real world. </p>
<p>For example, the adjustment in the utility factor for a model like the Prius Prime, with a 48-mile electric range, reduces the assumption of electric travel from the previous 65%-70% to about 55%. Similarly, for the Jeep Wrangler 4xe, with a 21-mile range, the utility factor is adjusted from around 40% to 30%.</p>
<p>These changes provide a more accurate reflection of PHEVs’ contribution to reducing emissions, which helps ensure that the regulatory framework aligns better with actual usage patterns. And by modifying the utility factor, the EPA may nudge manufacturers toward prioritizing more efficient PHEVs or shifting their focus toward fully electric vehicles. </p>
<h2>A clear signal to carmakers</h2>
<p>Changing auto efficiency standards has traditionally meant making incremental improvements in vehicle technologies, such as increases in engine efficiency. This new rule is much more aggressive and has a clear goal of driving a major shift toward EVs and other clean car types. </p>
<p>These standards can help companies set goals for the future by providing clear targets. Failing to meet EPA rules can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/clean-air-act-vehicle-and-engine-enforcement-case-resolutions">incur tough penalties</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, these standards are an important step in the right direction to achieve U.S. climate goals, and they will serve as a stick that complements the monetary carrots funded by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, which authorized tax credits and subsidies for EVs and charging stations. The new rule may not be a perfect policy from a pure climate perspective, but given automakers’ concerns and the political sensitivity of this issue, I believe it hits the target.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Jenn receives or has received funding from the Department of Energy, the Sloan Foundation, and the Transportation Research Board. He was a contributing author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p>The new rule isn’t a mandate for electric vehicles, but it will sharply increase their market share over the coming decade.Alan Jenn, Associate Professional Researcher in Transportation, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236102024-02-22T13:43:36Z2024-02-22T13:43:36ZEPA has tightened its target for deadly particle pollution − states need more tools to reach it<p>Tens of millions of Americans, including many Texans like me, live in counties that will soon be <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/table_annual-pm25-county-design-values-2020-2022-for-web.pdf">violating air pollution particle standards</a> for the first time. It’s not that our air is getting dirtier – it’s because the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency just <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/final-reconsideration-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-particulate-matter-pm">tightened its cap</a> on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000711">deadliest air pollutant: fine particulate matter</a>, or PM2.5.</p>
<p>The EPA acted because the Clean Air Act requires it to periodically <a href="https://www.epa.gov/criteria-air-pollutants/process-reviewing-national-ambient-air-quality-standards">review existing standards</a> for six major air pollutants to ensure that the targets protect public health. Its <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=354490">2022 scientific review</a> showed that fine particles increase rates of illnesses and death even when inhaled at levels below existing standards. </p>
<p>The EPA estimates that meeting its new standard would yield up to US$77 in health benefits for each $1 of control costs and would <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-finalizes-stronger-standards-harmful-soot-pollution-significantly-increasing">save up to 4,500 lives in 2032</a>. </p>
<p>Now, states must develop plans that meet the standard. As an atmospheric scientist who has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=U4vSW6MAAAAJ&hl=en">studied air pollution</a> for a quarter century, I’m concerned that a lack of detailed measurement data will leave many states flying blind. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/naaqs_pm_reconsideration_ria_final.pdf">regulatory analysis</a> that the EPA issued alongside its rule focused only on a narrow set of local control options, neglecting some of the most important upwind sources of particulate matter. That myopic approach could lead to plans that save fewer lives – and at higher costs – than states could achieve with better data and more comprehensive strategies. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GVBeY1jSG9Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Fine particle pollution contributes to many deadly diseases, including heart attack, stroke, lung disease and cancer.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s in a particle?</h2>
<p>The EPA’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/final-reconsideration-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-particulate-matter-pm">new standard</a> limits PM2.5, the smallest regulated particles, to 9 micrograms per cubic meter of air. This is the midpoint of a <a href="https://casac.epa.gov/ords/sab/r/sab_apex/casac/ar?session=32311776731473">recommended range</a> from the agency’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee and a 25% cut from the prior cap. This new cap is <a href="https://www.airclim.org/air-quality-standards-worldwide">among the toughest in the world</a>.</p>
<p>Although federal standards lump all fine particles together as a single pollutant, they’re more like a stew of ingredients. Some, like sea salt, dust and black carbon, are emitted to the air directly as particles. Others, like sulfate, nitrate and ammonium, start out mainly as gases that interact in the atmosphere to form particles downwind. Organic carbon, the leading type of PM in many regions, originates as both gases and particles that react in complex ways.</p>
<p>Countless natural sources such as trees and soils, and human-made ones such as vehicles, factories and fertilizers, add various mixes of these ingredients to the stew.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic comparing PM2.5 to human hair and beach sand grains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576853/original/file-20240220-26-1zrtec.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fine particulates (red dots) are 2.5 microns in diameter – far smaller than the width of a human hair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/images/2022-04/particulate-size.gif">USEPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>States operate <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-06/PM_2022.pdf">more than 1,000 monitors</a> that measure the total amount of PM in the air. Unfortunately, only about 150 of those monitors are sophisticated versions called speciation monitors that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/amtic/chemical-speciation-network-csn">measure what the PM is made of</a> – information that’s critical for developing effective controls. Thousands of counties don’t even have a total PM monitor, despite satellite evidence showing that <a href="https://www.rff.org/news/press-releases/new-satellite-data-show-twice-as-many-americans-live-in-counties-not-meeting-fine-particulate-air-quality-standards-than-previously-thought/">many would exceed the new standard</a>.</p>
<p>When the EPA first regulated fine particles separately from coarse ones, known as PM10, in the late 1990s, it <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/rced-99-215.pdf">developed a plan</a> to routinely measure the content of PM at over 300 metropolitan sites. It also funded <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?Lab=NERL&TIMSType=PUBLISHED+REPORT&actType=Product&dirEntryId=161403&displayIt=Yes&searchAll=Climate+and+Modeling&showCriteria=0&sortBy=revisionDate&startIndex=51&subject=Climate+Change+Research">temporary Supersites</a> at which scientists intensely studied particles in eight of the most polluted cities.</p>
<p>When I worked on reducing particle pollution for Georgia’s air agency in the early 2000s, those speciation monitors and the <a href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=66293&Lab=NERL">Atlanta Supersite</a> provided crucial data to inform our efforts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of PM2.5 formation in the air." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576871/original/file-20240220-18-k88ayo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three major emissions form inorganic fine airborne particulate matter: nitrogen oxides (NOx), largely from cars and trucks; sulfur dioxide (SO2) from power plants and factories; and ammonia (NH3) from agriculture. Sunlight and chemical reactions in the atmosphere convert the emissions to new chemical species that can combine to form tiny particles known as PM2.5.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/regulating-particulate-pollution-novel-analysis-yields-new-insights/">MIT Energy Initiative</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now, about half of the speciation monitors are gone for lack of funding, and the EPA hasn’t announced a follow-up to its Supersite program. The agency’s inspector general <a href="https://19january2021snapshot.epa.gov/sites/static/files/2015-12/documents/pmreport20030930.pdf">warned as far back as 2003</a> that better measurements were needed to inform timely reductions of PM. Instead, Congress cut EPA’s budgets in the early 2000s, driving the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10962247.2014.956904">closure of dozens of monitors</a> after the size of the network <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-08/PM_2021.pdf">peaked in 2005</a>.</p>
<p>The composition of particles has changed dramatically since then as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/transportation-air-pollution-and-climate-change/smog-soot-and-other-air-pollution-transportation">vehicles have gotten cleaner</a>, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/power-sector/latest-emission-comparisons-pollution-controls">power plant emissions have plummeted</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06522-6">wildfires have intensified</a>. EPA tightened the PM2.5 standard in <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-04/documents/2012_aqi_factsheet.pdf">in 2012</a> and again this year, so it’s more important than ever to know what these particles are made of now. </p>
<p>Many counties whose PM levels exceed the new standard lack speciation monitors and have never been the focus of an intensive scientific field study. Others lack sufficient data to develop a comprehensive plan.</p>
<h2>A Texas illustration</h2>
<p>My home state of Texas illustrates the data void. In the early 2000s, Houston <a href="http://dept.ceer.utexas.edu/ceer/texaqs/superfacts.html">hosted a Supersite</a> and various <a href="https://csl.noaa.gov/projects/2006/">other</a> <a href="https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/campaigns/discover-aq-houston">temporary</a> <a href="https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/acd/campaigns/tracer-aq">studies</a>. Today, our only <a href="https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2023/#pm2_5_composition">remaining speciation monitor</a> sits near the refinery-lined Houston Ship Channel, but our highest PM is measured <a href="https://www17.tceq.texas.gov/tamis/index.cfm?fuseaction=report.view_site&CAMS=1052">18 miles away</a>, where a busy interstate loop transects trendy neighborhoods near a concrete plant.</p>
<p>That data gap pales in comparison to the ones facing Hidalgo, Cameron and Webb counties along the Texas-Mexico border, home to the cities of McAllen, Brownsville and Laredo. Like Houston, their total particulate levels fall between the new and old standards. However, their particle pollution has never been analyzed in a major field study, and there’s no speciation monitor within <a href="https://tceq.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=ab6f85198bda483a997a6956a8486539">over 100 miles</a>.</p>
<p>This isn’t just a Texas problem.</p>
<p><a href="https://www3.epa.gov/airquality/greenbook/map/mappm25both.pdf">Several regions</a> of California, Pennsylvania, Utah and Ohio, along with small portions of Alaska, Arizona, Idaho and Oregon, violated previous PM standards, so those states have some experience developing PM control plans. The new limit will require them to redouble their control efforts. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/table_annual-pm25-county-design-values-2020-2022-for-web.pdf">various counties in 18 other states</a>, including Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Mississippi and Tennessee, have PM levels that fall between the previous and new standards. They will likely need to develop plans for the first time.</p>
<p>Cities such as Nashville, Tennessee; Kansas City, Kansas; Fort Lauderdale and Pensacola in Florida; and Hattiesburg and Gulfport in Mississippi also exceed the new standards but lack speciation monitors.</p>
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<h2>A need for broader controls</h2>
<p>Lacking better data, states may fall back on the types of strategies outlined in the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/naaqs_pm_reconsideration_ria_final.pdf">EPA’s regulatory analysis</a>. The agency suggested that states focus on controlling <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/naaqs_pm_reconsideration_ria_final.pdf">local sources that directly emit particles</a>, such as road dust, agricultural dust and cooking emissions.</p>
<p>But this approach neglects particles that form from gases emitted far upwind. For example, ammonia from agriculture reacts with sulfur dioxide from coal burning and nitrogen oxides from various sources to form ammonium, sulfate and nitrate, which are among the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000297">leading components of particulate matter</a>. </p>
<p>Controlling ammonia is one of the <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2296406-cutting-ammonia-emissions-may-be-the-best-way-to-reduce-air-pollution/">most cost-effective opportunities</a> to <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es060379a">improve air quality</a>. Reducing emissions of this <a href="https://www.clean-air-farming.eu/en/activities/abatement-measures">long-neglected pollutant</a> will require better practices for managing livestock, fertilizers and manure on farms.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of a large power plant with tall smokestacks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577079/original/file-20240221-24-lwmpu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The W.A. Parish coal-fired power plant in Fort Bend County, Texas, just west of Houston, is one of the largest SO2 emitters in the U.S. Three of its four units lack scrubbers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:W.A._Parish_Generating_Plant_Aerial.jpg">RM VM/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Sulfur dioxide has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/sulfur-dioxide-trends">already been slashed</a> but could be cut further by requiring outdated coal-fired power plants that still lack sulfur scrubbers – a technology <a href="https://lawcat.berkeley.edu/record/1111495">mandated at new plants since 1979</a> – to install them, switch to natural gas or retire. Nitrogen oxides can be reduced by replacing old trucks and installing industrial controls. Controlling all of these gases requires help from upwind counties but can achieve broader progress than local dust controls alone.</p>
<p>With growing shares of particulate matter coming from natural sources and wildfires, states will need all the help they can get to meet the tough new standard. Better data and upwind controls of ammonia and other gases can help states save lives and meet standards as cost-effectively as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Cohan has previously received research grants from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and serves on its Board of Scientific Counselors but is writing in a personal capacity. He worked from 2004-2006 for the Georgia Environmental Protection Division and has previously received research funding from the Texas Air Quality Research Program.</span></em></p>Reducing particle pollution can save thousands of lives, but states need more data to inform better controls. An atmospheric scientist explains what data and actions are needed.Daniel Cohan, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230572024-02-08T13:39:27Z2024-02-08T13:39:27ZHeart attacks, cancer, dementia, premature deaths: 4 essential reads on the health effects driving EPA’s new fine particle air pollution standard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574202/original/file-20240207-27-6crply.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C7%2C5002%2C3347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Large industrial facilities like this oil refinery outside Houston are major sources of fine particulate air pollution.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressClimateEnvironmentalJustice/c07295f82f9646db873f5d96baf4f089/photo">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/final-reconsideration-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-particulate-matter-pm">announced a new standard</a> for protecting the public from fine particulate air pollution, known as PM2.5 because the particles are smaller than 2.5 millionths of a meter. These minute particles can penetrate deeply into the body and have been linked to many serious illnesses. </p>
<p>The new rule sets an annual limit of 9 micrograms per cubic meter of air, down from the previous level of 12 micrograms. States will be required to meet this standard and to take it into consideration when they evaluate applications for permits for new stationary air pollution sources, such as electric power plants, factories and oil refineries.</p>
<p>Under the Clean Air Act, the EPA is required to set air pollution standards at levels that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-clean-air-act">protect public health</a>. In the four articles that follow, scholars wrote about the many ways in which exposure to PM2.5 contributes to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, other illnesses such as dementia, and premature deaths.</p>
<h2>1. An alarming array of health effects</h2>
<p>Scientists have known since the 1993 <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJM199312093292401">Six Cities Study</a>, which showed that people were dying faster in dirty cities than in clean cities, that exposure to PM2.5 increased the risk of lung cancer and heart disease. Subsequent research has linked fine particulates to a much broader range of health effects. </p>
<p>Once a person inhales PM2.5, “it causes an inflammatory response that sends signals <a href="https://theconversation.com/fine-particle-air-pollution-is-a-public-health-emergency-hiding-in-plain-sight-106030">throughout the body</a>, much as a bacterial infection would,” wrote public and environmental health scholars <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1h3u230AAAAJ&hl=en">Doug Brugge</a> of the University of Connecticut and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SDWANZEAAAAJ&hl=en">Kevin James Lane</a> of Boston University. “Additionally, the smallest particles and fragments of larger particles can leave the lungs and travel through the blood.” </p>
<p>In Brugge and Lane’s view, evidence that PM2.5 could affect brain development, cognitive skills and children’s central nervous systems is particularly notable. They termed fine particle pollution an urgent global health threat. </p>
<p>“Developed countries have made progress in reducing particulate air pollution in recent decades, but much remains to be done to further reduce this hazard,” they observed. “And the situation has gotten dramatically worse in many developing countries – most notably China and India, which have industrialized faster and on vaster scales than ever seen before.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fine-particle-air-pollution-is-a-public-health-emergency-hiding-in-plain-sight-106030">Fine particle air pollution is a public health emergency hiding in plain sight</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">PM2.5 particles are small enough to evade many of the body’s defenses.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>2. Aging the brain</h2>
<p>Medical researchers are looking closely at air pollution as a possible accelerator of brain aging. University of Southern California preventive medicine specialist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jxckDOcAAAAJ&hl=en">Jiu-Chiuan Chen</a> and his colleagues have found that older women who lived in locations with high levels of PM2.5 suffered <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk-heres-what-were-learning-from-brain-scans-148776">memory loss and Alzheimer’s-like brain shrinkage</a> not seen in women living with cleaner air.</p>
<p>Chen and his colleagues compared brains scans taken at five-year intervals of older women who lived in areas with varying levels of air pollution.</p>
<p>“When we compared the brain scans of older women from locations with high levels of PM2.5 to those with low levels, we found dementia risk increased by 24% over the five years,” Chen wrote. </p>
<p>More alarmingly, “(T)hese Alzheimer’s-like brain changes were present in older women with no memory problems,” Chen noted. “The shrinkage in their brains was greater if they lived in locations with higher levels of outdoor PM2.5, even when those levels were within the current (2021) EPA standard.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk-heres-what-were-learning-from-brain-scans-148776">Air pollution may contribute to Alzheimer’s and dementia risk – here's what we're learning from brain scans</a>
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<h2>3. Disadvantaged communities have dirtier air</h2>
<p>As researchers in environmental justice have shown, facilities such as factories and refineries often are concentrated in low-income neighborhoods and communities of color. This means that these areas are exposed to higher pollution levels and face heavier related health burdens.</p>
<p>Regulations put in place under the Clean Air Act have greatly reduced levels of harmful air pollutants across the U.S. over the past 50 years. But when University of Virginia economist <a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=xw8Ml0QAAAAJ&hl=en">Jonathan Colmer</a> and public policy scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Z1sqTysAAAAJ&hl=en">Jay Shimshack</a> analyzed data tracing PM2.5 concentrations at more than 8.6 million distinct U.S. locations from 1981 through 2016, they found that the areas that were most polluted in 1981 <a href="https://theconversation.com/fine-particle-air-pollution-has-decreased-across-the-us-but-poor-and-minority-communities-are-still-the-most-polluted-143650">remained the dirtiest nearly 40 years later</a>.</p>
<p>“In 1981 PM2.5 concentrations in the most polluted 10% of census tracts averaged 34 micrograms per cubic meter,” the authors reported. “In 2016 PM2.5 concentrations in the most polluted 10% of census tracts averaged 10 micrograms per cubic meter. PM2.5 concentrations in the least polluted 10% of census tracts averaged 4 micrograms per cubic meter.” In other words, while all areas had cleaner air, people in the most polluted areas still were exposed to PM2.5 levels more than twice as high as people in the cleanest zones.</p>
<p>“For decades, federal and state environmental guidelines have aimed to provide all Americans with the same degree of protection from environmental hazards,” Colmer and Shimshack note. “The EPA’s definition of environmental justice states that ‘no group of people should bear a disproportionate share of the negative environmental consequences.’ On this front, our research suggests that the United States is falling short.”</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fine-particle-air-pollution-has-decreased-across-the-us-but-poor-and-minority-communities-are-still-the-most-polluted-143650">Fine-particle air pollution has decreased across the US, but poor and minority communities are still the most polluted</a>
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<h2>4. Fine particle pollution hurts wildlife too</h2>
<p>Like the proverbial canaries in coal mines, wild animals can show effects of exposure to pollution that offer broader warnings. One example is wildfires, which produce high levels of gases and particulate matter.</p>
<p>Cornell University conservation biologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ykHYzwEAAAAJ&hl=en">Wendy M. Erb</a> was studying wild orangutans in Indonesian Borneo when that island suffered large-scale wildfires. Orangutans are semi-solitary animals that communicate with each other through long, booming calls in the tropical forests where they live. </p>
<p>During the fires and for several weeks after the smoke cleared, Erb and her colleagues found that four male orangutans they were following <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-see-how-smoke-affects-endangered-orangutans-we-studied-their-voices-during-and-after-massive-indonesian-wildfires-208153">called less frequently than usual</a> – about three times daily instead of their usual six times. “Their voices dropped in pitch, showing more vocal harshness and irregularities,” Erb reported. “Collectively, these features of vocal quality have been linked to inflammation, stress and disease – including COVID-19 – in human and nonhuman animals.”</p>
<p>Erb hoped to see further study of how toxic smoke affects wildlife. “Using passive acoustic monitoring to study vocally active indicator species, like orangutans, could unlock critical insights into wildfire smoke’s effects on wildlife populations worldwide,” she observed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-see-how-smoke-affects-endangered-orangutans-we-studied-their-voices-during-and-after-massive-indonesian-wildfires-208153">To see how smoke affects endangered orangutans, we studied their voices during and after massive Indonesian wildfires</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archive.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
On Feb. 7, 2024, the EPA strengthened the federal limit for annual levels of fine particulate air pollution, or PM2.5. Many serious health effects have been linked to PM2.5 exposure.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225612024-02-07T13:11:48Z2024-02-07T13:11:48ZBiden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573502/original/file-20240205-30-63bf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3784%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A heat exchanger and transfer pipes at Dominion Energy's Cove Point LNG Terminal in Lusby, Md.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChesapeakeBayLNGExports/60c6ff33c115496fb821bf89276bd5e9/photo">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">frozen pending decisions</a> on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">U.S. free trade partners</a>. During this pause, which will last for up to 15 months, the administration has pledged to take a “hard look” at economic, environmental and national security issues associated with exporting LNG.</em> </p>
<p><em>Environmental advocates, who have expressed alarm over the rapid growth of U.S. LNG exports and their effects on Earth’s climate, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">praised this step</a>. Critics, including energy companies and members of Congress, argue that it threatens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/europe-faces-the-chill-as-biden-freezes-new-lng-export-permits">European energy security</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/cornyn-freezing-lng-exports-threatens-texas-jobs-18645141.php">energy jobs in the U.S.</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">Emily Grubert</a>, associate professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame and a former official at the U.S. Department of Energy, explains why large-scale LNG exports raise complex questions for U.S. policymakers.</em></p>
<h2>Is the US a major LNG supplier?</h2>
<p>The U.S. is now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582">the world’s largest LNG exporter</a>. In November 2023, the most recent month with full data, the U.S. exported <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_m.htm">about 390 billion cubic feet</a> of LNG, a record high. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been a net exporter since 2017, with export volumes now equal to about 15% of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">our domestic consumption</a>. This gas sells for higher prices than natural gas delivered domestically, but it also costs more to process and deliver. As of 2022, the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm">provided 20%</a> of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57000">total global LNG exports</a>.</p>
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<h2>Are there plans for exporting even more LNG?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Administration projects that North American LNG export capacity – largely from the U.S. – is likely to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60944">more than double</a> from its current level by the end of 2027. In the U.S., five LNG export terminals are currently under construction, and are not affected by the current pause. </p>
<p>Applications for <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">additional export terminals</a> are under review. These are the applications for which decisions have been <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">temporarily paused</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing nine proposed new LNG plants in coastal Texas and Louisiana." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Proposed North American LNG export terminals as of July 5, 2022. Except for terminals in Alaska, Maryland and Georgia, most U.S. LNG infrastructure is already concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/7.%20LNG%20Maps%207-5-2022%20-%20Exports_ds.pdf">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
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<h2>How does LNG fit into a transition away from fossil fuel?</h2>
<p>LNG, and natural gas in general, has an uneasy place in the decarbonization transition. Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Burning it produces carbon dioxide that <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php">contributes to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, natural gas that has been processed for use is essentially pure methane, which is itself a greenhouse gas. When natural gas leaks to the atmosphere from sources like wells, pipelines or processing plants, it adds to climate change. Since the mid-1800s, human activities – mainly, burning fossil fuel – have raised Earth’s temperature by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Methane has <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf603">caused about 0.9 degrees F (0.5 C) of that warming</a> above preindustrial global temperatures. </p>
<p>LNG is not a transition away from fossil fuel – it is a fossil fuel. Hypothetically, substituting LNG for more carbon-intensive fuels, like coal or other natural gas supplies with higher methane emissions, could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. </p>
<p>But there’s debate over <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba">how much LNG is actually useful in that context</a>, especially when it comes to whether LNG would actually prompt switching from coal to gas, and if so, whether the long-term lock-in of fossil gas use is worth it. Meanwhile, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to operate these facilities for years, or planning to <a href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/energy-transition-could-leave-fossil-energy-producers-and-investors-with-costly-stranded-assets/">strand expensive assets</a> by retiring them early. </p>
<p>LNG terminals also have significant local impacts. In addition to methane, they emit large quantities of other air pollutants, including <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2023/05/26/groups-seek-federal-intervention-for-lng-company-they-deem-air-permit-offender/">nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds</a>. Tanker traffic to and from them can <a href="https://www.ehn.org/lng-environmental-justice-2666656588.html">damage marshes and waterways</a>. Building more terminals, especially in areas where energy facilities <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2023/03/20/sacrifice-zone-gulf-coast-helps-meet-global-natural-gas-needs-but-at-what-cost/">are already concentrated</a>, raises important health and environmental justice concerns.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. LNG export boom could offer economic benefits, but also local and global environmental damage from producing, shipping and consuming natural gas.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to actually shift away from fossil fuel. In my view, it’s not clear that deploying LNG will achieve this goal unless it’s done with an explicit plan and mechanism to ensure that the gas is only used where it is actually needed and can support an emissions phaseout.</p>
<h2>What do you think this policy review should consider?</h2>
<p>As I see it, the most important step is to develop a coherent national strategy for the role of natural gas in the U.S. energy system, consistent with the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/#">stringent goals</a> of making the U.S. electricity supply carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. </p>
<p>Such a blueprint would need to include a plan for reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure to phase out use of natural gas, along with coal and oil. In theory, it could include targeted deployment of gas resources to ensure that energy needs are being met while zero-carbon resources are deployed along the way. </p>
<p>I’d like to see a clear articulation of the climate, health and energy system impacts of approving additional LNG export terminals, with enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. will meet defined limits on climate and other pollution, and on operational conditions. I’d also like to see health and environmental justice considerations deeply embedded into energy and climate decisions in general, and especially for LNG projects. </p>
<p>These plants are sited mainly in communities that <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">have suffered high rates of illness, premature deaths and environmental damage</a> from hosting <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/21/oil-refineries-pollution-gulf-coast-epa/">fossil fuel infrastructure</a> for decades. Many of them have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/emissions-rising-seas-test-game-changer-lng-project/">said they don’t want</a> additional LNG development. In my view, without clarity on where the U.S. is going on this issue, it will be extremely difficult to make good decisions about LNG, and about natural gas in general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert served in 2021-2022 as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Carbon Management and, later, as Senior Advisor in the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the US Department of Energy, which has permitting authority over LNG terminals. She was not involved with LNG decisions.</span></em></p>The US, a minor liquefied natural gas supplier a decade ago, now is the world’s top source. That’s good for energy security, but bad for Earth’s climate. An energy scholar explains the trade-offs.Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220782024-02-01T17:20:54Z2024-02-01T17:20:54ZAir pollution: we recreated the deepest sections of your lung in a laboratory to understand how polluted air can affect your health<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571943/original/file-20240129-15-d2jfov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3790%2C2595&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-ink-on-white-background-form-1774078307">Oleg Krugliak / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even today, in a world increasingly powered by renewable energy and clean technologies, air pollution poses a real risk to human health. In the UK alone, it is estimated to be responsible for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health">28,000 to 36,000 deaths every year</a>, and can vastly increase the risk of developing many lung and heart-related diseases, such as asthma or lung cancer.</p>
<p>Polluted air forms a complex mixture that changes depending on where the pollution is coming from, and what the local weather is doing at the time. People in towns and cities are more at risk since they live closer to most cars, factories and other sources of emissions.</p>
<p>Although there are many different types of pollutants within the air we breathe, two in particular are detrimental to our health: the gas nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (specifically, PM₂.₅), formed of floating, microscopic solid or liquid particles smaller than 2.5 micrometres in diameter (for reference, a human hair is about 70 micrometres in diameter).</p>
<p>In 2017, a <a href="https://airqualitynews.com/2019/10/11/london-commits-to-who-guidelines-for-pm2-5-by-2030/#:%7E:text=guidelines%20for%20PM2.-,5%20by%202030,(WHO)%20guidelines%20by%202030.">report</a> found that all areas of London exceeded World Health Organisation recommended levels for PM₂.₅, with many areas being more than double the recommended levels. Scenarios like these have allowed researchers to investigate the dangers of breathing in really polluted air. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Congestion charge sign and traffic at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572457/original/file-20240131-21-wonco7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cars are a big source of air pollution in the UK capital.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sampajano_Anizza / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00350-8/fulltext">One study</a> found that, across the world, 86% of people who live in urban areas are exposed to PM₂.₅ at levels higher than even the World Health Organisation’s more lenient 2005 guidelines, resulting in 1.8 million excess deaths in 2019. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00255-2/fulltext">Another</a> found NO₂ to be responsible for 1.85 million cases of childhood asthma worldwide in 2019.</p>
<p>These figures come from studies on large populations of people, which take public health data and compare it to pollution data to look for correlations between pollution and disease. These are known as epidemiological studies. Although these studies can provide great insight into the risks associated with air pollution exposure, they do have their limitations.</p>
<p>For example, NO₂ and PM₂.₅ are emitted from the same sources, so you’d expect that when levels of one pollutant are high, levels of the other are high too. Therefore, without some very complicated maths, it’s sometimes hard to use epidemiological data to fully tease out the health effects of one pollutant compared to another.</p>
<p>For this reason, research needs to take place in a more controlled environment. This can be achieved in a laboratory setting either by using invasive animal testing strategies, or by implementing cell-based systems of human cells that represent the organ in a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1084952122003676">dish</a>.</p>
<h2>Lungs in a lab</h2>
<p>In our lab at Swansea University Medical School, we are trying to replicate the layer of cells known as the alveolar epithelium, which lines the deepest part of your lungs where oxygen enters your bloodstream and carbon dioxide leaves as you breathe in and out. This means it’s also a key area that air pollution can target and damage. We therefore want to understand how pollution affects this specific and very delicate body part.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="illustration of the research described in the article" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572451/original/file-20240131-19-dwxfzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lung cells can be grown in the lab and exposed to air pollutants in a way that is similar to how humans are exposed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joshua Bateman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The alveolar epithelium is made up of several different types of cells, each with a specific job. Some allow movement of gases into and out of the blood, some produce surfactant (a biological fluid that maintains the structure of the lower lung as one breathes in and out) and some help remove inhaled microbes and particles. </p>
<p>By mixing all these cells together at specific ratios, we can produce single layers of cells that look very much like the alveolar epithelium of healthy humans. Then, once we’ve grown these anatomically relevant alveolar models, we can expose them to various pollutants to investigate what effect they may have. </p>
<p>We use “standardised” urban or indoor dust particles, which allows us to compare results with those from other labs who might also be using these particles (although realistic particles taken straight from the air around us are also sometimes used). We then put them in an aerosol cloud that deposits the particles onto the cells in a way that mimics the inhalation of particles in real life. </p>
<p>We’ve also devised a state-of-the-art NO₂ chamber that we can put the cells into. This allows us to see what happens to the cells when grown in differing NO₂ concentrations.</p>
<p>By investigating the effects of NO₂ and PM₂.₅ separately, we can fill in the gaps left by epidemiological studies to find out how individually hazardous each particle is – and whether being exposed to both at once is worse than being exposed separately.</p>
<p>Initially, we are finding that NO₂ and PM may <a href="https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/67/Supplement_1/i46/7159401">work in tandem</a> to damage important cells within the lower lung. Our results will hopefully improve our knowledge of how air pollution may damage the important cell types within the human (lower) lung, contributing to the onset or exacerbation of disease. Such findings would contribute to the human health assessment of exposure to air pollution, helping to develop future, relevant guidelines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Bateman receives funding from the COLT Foundation and UKHSA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Clift receives funding from UKHSA, the EU (H2020 funding scheme) and UKRI (NERC and MRC) to assess the human health effects of air pollutants. He also receives funding from UKHSA and the COLT Foundation on this area of research. He is affiliated with the UK Government Committee on the Effects of Air Pollutants, and has an honorary contract with UKHSA. </span></em></p>Researchers created a layer of human lung cells and exposed them to different pollutants.Joshua Bateman, Postdoctoral Research Officer, Inhalation Toxicology, Swansea UniversityMartin Clift, Professor, Biomedical Sciences, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209302024-01-26T18:08:46Z2024-01-26T18:08:46ZCertain indoor air pollutants can be absorbed through the skin – here’s what you need to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571636/original/file-20240126-19-jax70v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C6%2C4473%2C2485&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Phthalates are one of these pollutants that our skin can absorb.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/skin-cell-closeup-oli-vitamin-drop-2286416565">atk work/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even though most of us will spend a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/7500165">majority of our lives indoors</a>, that doesn’t mean we aren’t still exposed to air pollution. Indoor air contains a wide array of pollutants including chemicals found in many common household items, building materials and cleaning products. </p>
<p>These chemicals (known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0045653522039820">volatile organic compounds</a>) can occur in gaseous form, which means we can inhale them. But there’s a sub-group of volatile organic compounds, called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231008008480">semi-volatile organic compounds</a>. These can occur both in gas form and absorbed on solid surfaces (including all indoor surfaces, as well as dust). </p>
<p>Not only can these chemicals enter our body through inhalation, ingestion or by touching a surface containing these compounds, research shows they can also penetrate the skin directly from the air.</p>
<p>Once in our body, these chemicals may harm our health – potentially affecting the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/volatile-organic-compounds-impact-indoor-air-quality">respiratory system, nervous system, cognitive health</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2677823/">hormonal system</a>. </p>
<h2>Skin exposure</h2>
<p>There are many groups of semi-volatile organic compounds. One type you’ll probably come across in your home are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/Phthalates_FactSheet.html">phthalates</a>. Phthalates are everywhere and our exposure to them is nearly continuous. </p>
<p>Phthalates are used as plasticisers, added to certain products so they’re softer and more flexible. They can be found in certain types of plastics (such as food packaging or garden hoses), building materials (such as vinyl flooring) and personal care products (including shampoos and hair sprays). </p>
<p>Exposure to these chemicals has been linked to a variety of health problems, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969721024426">lower sperm quality</a>, poorer <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389423009639">cardiovascular health</a> and altered <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8157593/">growth and development</a> in children. </p>
<p>Once phthalates enter the body, they’re broken down over a few hours to a few days. These breakdown products (metabolites) are then excreted through urine. But while phthalates may be quickly excreted by the body, most of us still have these chemicals in our body almost <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935111000752?via%3Dihub">all the time</a>. This is because we are continuously exposed to these chemicals.</p>
<p>There are many ways we can be exposed to phthalates in our daily lives. While people might think they’re only at risk if they inhale or ingest these chemicals, research shows skin absorption can have a major affect on phthalate levels in the body.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409151">one study</a>, six participants were exposed to air containing elevated levels of two phthalates in a controlled climate chamber. This was done using latex paint, formulated with a heavy dose of the target phthalates and applied to aluminium plates hanging in the chamber, thus introducing them in the air.</p>
<p>To separately measure the quantity of phthalates absorbed through inhalation versus through skin, the participants were exposed twice – once wearing a tight-fitting breathing hood (exposing them only through skin) and once without the hood (exposing them through both skin and inhalation). The participants only wore shorts in order to increase the exposed skin surface area.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person dips a paintbrush in white paint." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571626/original/file-20240126-19-ccqamq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The participants were exposed to phthalates emitted from carefully prepared latex paint with these chemicals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-holds-brush-his-hand-ready-1765689377">Olya Maximenko/ Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Their diet and use of personal care products were restricted, as these can be a <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-069X-13-43">major source of phthalate intake</a>. Participants also collected their urine for several days after exposure. The quantity of phthalates absorbed by participants was estimated from the concentration of phthalate metabolites in their urine.</p>
<p>The participants had a substantial intake of phthalates even when only their skin was exposed. Their exposure was even higher after the test where both their skin and airways were exposed to the chemicals.</p>
<p>In the same study, an additional participant was put through the experiment to better understand how skin absorbs chemicals and whether clothing has a protective effect. The participant was exposed to the phthalates twice. He wore a breathing hood both times, to ensure that the skin was the only absorption route.</p>
<p>In the first experiment, he wore a set of clean clothes. In the second experiment, he wore a set of clothing which had been exposed to the chamber air several days prior. The results were then compared to the bare-skinned participants. The researchers found that the participant’s phthalate exposure was reduced with clean clothes, but it was three to six times higher when wearing the contaminated clothes compared to the participants in the bare-skinned trial. This shows how clothing can also be a reservoir for pollutants.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12327">a follow-up study</a>, similar findings were obtained in nearly identical experiments using nicotine from cigarette smoke as the test chemical. More recently, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c06142">research in homes</a> has yielded similar results. </p>
<p><a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c08835">Modelling studies</a> have also indicated that perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), another type of commonly used semi-volatile organic compound, can also be absorbed through skin.</p>
<p>All these results highlight the potentially significant role skin absorption plays in air pollution exposure – and of the protective role clothing can have.</p>
<h2>Health harm</h2>
<p>The harm a chemical causes differs depending on <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1438463906001076">how it enters the body</a>. Ingested chemicals pass through the intestines and liver before entering the blood. Inhaled chemicals first pass through the lungs where they may be <a href="https://www.epa.gov/expobox/exposure-assessment-tools-routes-inhalation">absorbed directly into the blood</a>. Chemicals that penetrate the skin can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/expobox/exposure-assessment-tools-routes-dermal">also directly enter the bloodstream</a>. You don’t even need to have an open wound, as the chemicals can be absorbed directly through the skin.</p>
<p>Even for similar exposure levels, the concentration of pollutants in the body differs depending on the exposure route. For example, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378427411001986">one study</a> modelled the concentration of a chemical called bisphenol-A in the liver and kidney from oral ingestion versus skin exposure. They found that the concentrations in the kidney and liver differed remarkably depending on the route of exposure. </p>
<p>Regardless, the longer you’re exposed to these chemicals, the more likely it is that skin becomes a reservoir for them – eventually becoming a primary route of exposure. Fortunately, there are many things you can do to reduce your vulnerability to these chemicals:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.usgbc.org/credits/retail-ci/v2009/eqc45">Use low-emission</a> building materials (such as paints and adhesives) where possible.</li>
<li><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ina.12396">Clean indoor surfaces</a> to remove any chemicals that might have been deposited on them (especially dusty surfaces).<br></li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201542">Wash clothing</a> and bedding regularly and wash <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.6b00113">new clothes</a> before wearing them. This will help prevent <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.3c06142">chemical absorption</a> by your skin.</li>
<li><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ina.12561">Air out your home regularly</a> (unless your home has a mechanical ventilation system). This will help reduce pollutant concentration in the air. </li>
<li><a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1409151">Bathing</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ina.12437">washing hands</a> after exposure can also help reduce skin absorption.</li>
</ol>
<p>By improving indoor air quality, you can lower your risk of exposure to multiple harmful pollutants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asit Kumar Mishra receives funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101034345. He is affiliated with American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) and International Society of Indoor Air Quality and Climate (ISIAQ). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Bekö is affiliated with the Technical University of Denmark. He is elected member of the Academy of Fellows of the International Society of Indoor Air Quality and Climate. </span></em></p>These pollutants can originate from many common household products – including vinyl flooring, plastic toys, cleaning products and furniture.Asit Kumar Mishra, Research Fellow in School of Public of Health, University College CorkGabriel Bekö, Associate professor, Technical University of DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215402024-01-26T17:58:02Z2024-01-26T17:58:02ZHow cars and road infrastructure became part of the UK’s culture wars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570950/original/file-20240123-21-23bz6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/motorway-complex-road-junction-aerial-view-1198012252">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When government ministers began <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/198260/active-travel-government-programme-offtrack-as-funding-reductions-hold-back-progress/">to defund</a> cycling and walking infrastructure in England in 2023, climate campaigners were confused. It marked a significant shift in transport policy and seemed at odds with the government’s own targets to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-cut-emissions-from-transport-ban-fossil-fuel-cars-electrify-transport-and-get-people-walking-and-cycling-154363">reduce carbon emissions</a> from road transport. </p>
<p>But a recent <a href="https://transportactionnetwork.org.uk/campaign/legal-action/cwis2-legal-challenge/">legal challenge</a> led by sustainable transport campaigning group Transport Action Network has shown that this ministerial decision-making was driven, in part, by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/10/shift-from-15-minute-cities-in-england-partly-due-to-conspiracy-theories">conspiracy theories</a>.</p>
<p>Urban planners have long devised schemes to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X22000281">discourage people</a> from using their cars for short trips. Initiatives including 15-minute cities, low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) and ultra-low emissions zones (Ulez) are designed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-is-ten-times-more-important-than-electric-cars-for-reaching-net-zero-cities-157163">promote more active forms of travel</a>. </p>
<p>The aim is to reduce traffic congestion and toxic pollution and the negative impacts both have on residents’ <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/5.16%20Congestion_report_v03.pdf">quality of life</a> and health. Less car use is also widely recognised as one of the most effective ways to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/16/12-most-effective-ways-cars-cities-europe">combat the climate crisis</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors with colourful banners and posters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570945/original/file-20240123-23-qhzyhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protesting the Ulez expansion in Uxbridge, in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/uxbridge-london-9-july-2023-people-2330803717">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet, in the wake of COVID-19, these simple measures have become entangled with anti-lockdown conspiracy theories. They have been <a href="https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2023-10-04/what-is-the-15-minute-cities-conspiracy-theory">misconstrued</a> as restrictions on people’s basic freedoms. According to this misinformation, the measures could lead to outright bans on car driving, residents being imprisoned in small areas and even people being prevented from leaving their homes at certain times of day. </p>
<p>These theories are <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/conservative-party-conference-15-minute-cities-mark-harper-conspiracy/">fiction, not fact</a>. But they are nonetheless born of a national context in which public transport provision is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/06/bus-neglect-national-failure-public-policy-motorists">failing</a>. For many people across the UK – particularly outside of London – <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2022/transport-statistics-great-britain-2022-domestic-travel">car travel</a> is not simply the preferred means of mobility: it is their only viable option.</p>
<p>In my recent book, <a href="https://lwbooks.co.uk/product/the-broken-promise-of-infrastructure">The Broken Promise of Infrastructure</a>, I show that belief in these conspiracy theories is driven, in part, by plummeting public confidence in government. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/16/uk-wasting-tens-of-billions-on-crumbling-infrastructure-and-badly-run-projects">Wasteful spending</a> and unprecedented levels of <a href="https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/07/10/mathew-lawrence-on-why-privatisation-has-been-a-costly-failure-in-britain">privatisation</a> have weakened Britain’s basic infrastructure through disrepair and neglect, lack of reinvestment and accountability, and endemic mismanagement. Repeated broken promises – including the failures of “levelling up” – have, in turn, eroded the population’s faith in national government. <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/trustingovernmentuk/2022">In 2022</a>, only 35% of people surveyed said they trusted government, well below the average for high-income countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bikes and bike shadows on a cycle path." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570943/original/file-20240123-19-a391ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The benefits of active travel have been overshadowed by electoral strategies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/black-metal-fence-on-gray-concrete-pavement-VzeXmOkLf20">Nick Page|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Political rhetoric</h2>
<p>At the Conservative party conference in September 2023, the secretary of state for transport, Mark Harper, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66990302">gave credence</a> to the evidently false notion that 15-minute cities meant “local councils can decide how often you go to the shops”.</p>
<p>A few days earlier, <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/24208749/rishi-sunak-car-drivers-ltn-speed-scheme/">Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had claimed</a> in a high-profile interview with the Sun newspaper, that such policies didn’t “reflect the values of Britain”. He promised to “slam the breaks on the war on motorists”. </p>
<p>These strange rhetorical appeals to conspiracy theories are driven, in part, by crude political strategy. Amid a wave of by-election defeats in 2023, the Tories <a href="https://theconversation.com/byelection-losses-are-terrible-for-the-conservatives-but-there-are-glimmers-of-hope-209902">held on to Uxbridge</a> partly because of local opposition to the expansion of London’s Ulez. </p>
<p>In reality, the Uxbridge vote was determined as much by <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/uxbridge-south-ruislip-ulez-expansion-sadiq-khan-conservative-labour/">low turnout</a> as it was by Ulez. The electoral potential of this opposition to anti-car policies in a national contest is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a6e5875f-666b-46d3-9cc6-b0e78302994d">ambiguous</a>, at best. Sunak has nonetheless sought to capitalise on any vote-winning policy issue he can find, even if it further damages public trust in government.</p>
<p>But there is a bigger story here, alluded to by Sunak when he <a href="https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1685582472262602752?lang=en">tweeted</a>, in July 2023, “Talking about freedom, sat in Margaret Thatcher’s old Rover… it’s why I’m reviewing anti-car schemes across the country.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1685582472262602752"}"></div></p>
<p>In the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher advocated an ideological connection between the deregulation of markets and the expansion of car use. She <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/oct/28/m25-london-orbital-margaret-thatcher-25">opened</a> the M25 motorway two days after the “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37751599">big bang</a>”, an agreement between her government and the London Stock Exchange which unleashed unprecedented deregulatory measures on finance capital. </p>
<p>The freeholds on motorway service stations were some of the first publicly owned assets that Thatcher privatised. Meanwhile, her notorious 1989 white paper, titled <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/supadu-imgix/plutopress-uk/pdfs/look-inside/LI-9781786807991.pdf">Roads for Prosperity</a>, committed to “the biggest road-building programme since the Romans”. At a cost of £6 billion, it more than doubled the road budget at the time, not shrinking but expanding state intervention. </p>
<p>Since the 2010s, successive Conservative governments have repeatedly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X18308424">resurrected</a> Thatcher’s ideological obsession with cars. In 2011, the then transport secretary, Philip Hammond, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-proposes-80mph-motorway-speed-limit">argued</a> that the five minutes gained by travelling at 80mph rather than 70mph along a motorway provide a boost to the economy in the same way as a tax exemption or subsidy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A vintage photo of cars on an English motorway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570937/original/file-20240123-29-zxmqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UK government has long used car travel as a political tool.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/a-couple-of-cars-that-are-sitting-in-the-street-iY-h-LErD_0">Crispin Jones|Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More recently, during her successful campaign to become prime minister, Liz Truss <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/19671673/liz-truss-consider-scrapping-70mph-speed-limits-motorways/">suggested</a> doing away with the 70mph speed limit on Britain’s motorways. Once she took office, this was followed by her disastrous mini-budget, which, not coincidentally, aimed to deregulate finance and stimulate a second “big bang”. </p>
<p>The road safety experts who took Truss seriously <a href="https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/uk-news/liz-truss-plan-scrap-motorway-24933673">pointed out</a> pressing dangers, from increased fatalities to rising emissions. But this response misses the populist appeal that political advocates of the free market are trying to achieve through pro-car rhetoric. </p>
<p>In connecting the individual autonomy that car travel enables to neoliberal economic policies, these advocates are wielding the feelings of freedom elicted by the <a href="https://www.matthewbcrawford.com/why-we-drive">“open road”</a>. In this way, they are spreading the idea that government intervention of any kind is an infringement on individual liberty. </p>
<p>This ignores the crucial role that government has always had in building and maintaining the country’s roads. It also deflects attention from Britain’s crumbling transport infrastructure. Instead of demanding the <a href="https://tribunemag.co.uk/2023/10/public-transport-is-a-disaster-but-it-could-be-a-panacea">state intervene</a> to fix things, this strategy deliberately casts intervention itself as the problem. </p>
<p>Most dangerously, it makes cynical use of conspiracy theories. These often take root in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/25369/chapter-abstract/192470181?redirectedFrom=fulltext">disempowered communities</a>. Turning infrastructure into a politically expedient culture war issue <a href="https://www.redpepper.org.uk/political-parties-and-ideologies/conservative-party/levelling-up-is-part-of-the-culture-war/">only serves</a> to further disempower those most in need of its improvement. </p>
<p>The car has turned from a private convenience into a public nuisance. If the government is serious about improving people’s lives, it should increase investment in affordable public transport and accessible walking and cycling infrastructure. This is what will empower communities to take back control of their neighbourhoods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conspiracy theories about urban planning are born of a national context in which public transport provision is failingDominic Davies, Senior Lecturer in English, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211542024-01-15T17:52:24Z2024-01-15T17:52:24ZCan technology clean up our air? An atmospheric scientist got a glimpse of the future<p>Every few years I visit CES (formerly the Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas, a goliath event that is equal parts shameless spin and publicity, trade show and business conference. I’m an atmospheric scientist, and I want to get some insight into the technologies that might reduce our personal emissions in future.</p>
<p>In 2018, there was an explosion in interest in air-quality sensors alongside products aimed at cleaning air in the home. I wondered back then whether air filtration would gain traction in Europe and <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-purification-is-catching-on-but-it-may-be-doing-more-harm-than-good-111309">whether this was environmentally sustainable or socially equitable</a>. </p>
<p>That was in a pre-COVID world. While indoor air filters still aren’t ubiquitous, I see far more today than I’d have predicted in 2018. My futurologist skills are pretty poor.</p>
<p>All this matters because, thanks to various engineering successes, emissions of “traditional” air pollution particles from combustion (so-called PM2.5) in most rich countries are the lowest they’ve been in a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/air-quality-climate-change/">century or more</a>. The key sources of air pollution are changing, vehicle emissions are improving and there are fewer large industrial emitters left to control.</p>
<p>Air pollution remains the largest global environmental factor that harms <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240034228">public health</a>, but there is an increased focus on pollution in <a href="https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/inside-story-health-effects-indoor-air-quality-children-young-people">day-to-day life</a> and what to do about it.</p>
<h2>An air-quality dimension to new tech</h2>
<p>CES involves a lot of walking because it is vast – seven miles on day one according to my smartwatch, six miles the next. Those miles deliver an endless stream of booths and stands offering new tech, large and small, and there is an air-quality dimension to a surprising number of them. </p>
<p>The first thing to note was the conspicuous absence of air-quality sensors, which haven’t quite delivered what was promised in 2018. This is probably due to a combination of continued accuracy issues of the sensors themselves, difficulty finding a niche in an often regulated marketplace, and the reality that just measuring pollution in lots of places and showing it on a nice website doesn’t directly make it any better.</p>
<p>Home air filtration is, however, still a major product sector and every appliance manufacturer has offerings – but these never really were “tech” in the first place. Indoor air cleaners remain pretty basic and any half-competent DIY-er could make their own. They’re just filter papers, a fan, a cheap particle counter, often now coupled with a dehumidifier to help reduce mould and spores indoors. For both combustion and biological particles they really can be effective if you can afford them. </p>
<p>There still aren’t convincing technological solutions to reducing indoor pollution from <a href="https://theconversation.com/common-products-like-perfume-paint-and-printer-ink-are-polluting-the-atmosphere-91914">“volatile organic compounds”, or VOCs</a>, however. These gases are released from personal care products, aerosol sprays, fires, candles, cooking, paints, glues, wood, furniture and many others. Modern energy-efficient buildings can have limited ventilation and often trap VOCs inside. Once they are in the air, they are difficult to collect and contain. </p>
<p>Some devices aim to oxidise VOCs to CO2 and water but this process may not be completely efficient and can <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2021/study-finds-indoor-air-cleaners-fall-short-removing-volatile-organic-compounds-1029">create byproducts</a> that are themselves harmful, such as formaldehyde. Technologies that removed the need to use VOCs in the first place would seem a simpler indoor air quality fix.</p>
<h2>Electrification means better air quality</h2>
<p>Electrification is everywhere at the consumer show, with the promise of phasing out fossil fuel burning from our lives. The pollution benefits of battery electric cars are now very well understood. </p>
<p>Perhaps more significant for the future will be the accumulating air quality benefits from replacing less visible polluting equipment – using heat pumps, solar and battery storage in place of gas and oil boilers, hydrogen fuel cells for trucks and backup generators, hydrogen engines for construction and farming, the list goes on. Compared to 2018, hydrogen is much more prominent, although accessing sufficient “green” supplies is another story.</p>
<p>Vehicle autonomy has been a part of CES for years but fully self-driving cars still seem some way off (or appear so to a complete non-expert like me). There is, however, growing <a href="https://secureenergy.org/savs-sf-case-study/">evidence</a> that using more autonomy could have a direct air quality benefit since it is aggressive stop-start driving that wears out tyres and suspends tiny polluting particles from the road into the air. </p>
<p>This could be reduced by smoother driving that is synchronised with nearby vehicles and urban traffic management, taking heavy-footed humans out of the equation. </p>
<p>Then come more distant transport technologies that might never come to pass – electric drones for everything, from food deliveries to air taxis for people, all displacing combustion-driven road vehicles.</p>
<p>I’m a technology enthusiast and came away with an optimistic view of the air pollution future. But I’m not naive and know that CES is ultimately about selling us stuff. </p>
<p>While it’s far less glitzy we can also get cleaner air by simply consuming less. It sounds (and is) simple, but I’m sure I’m not alone in feeling conflicted when offered different options. The latest mobile app-driven AI-guided e-scooter journey creates less urban air pollution than using a diesel car, but for those that can, it will always be cheaper and healthier just to walk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alastair Lewis is part of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and receives funding from various UKRI schemes for research in areas associated with air pollution and atmospheric chemistry. He is currently a Royal Society Industry Fellow collaborating with Givaudan AG on consumer product impacts on air quality. He is Chair of the Defra Air Quality Expert Group and Department for Transport Science Advisory Council, however this article is written in a personal capacity.</span></em></p>A surprising number of new consumer tech products promise to improve air quality.Alastair Lewis, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of York, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2192652024-01-02T10:58:21Z2024-01-02T10:58:21ZSwitching to plant-based diets means cleaner air – and it could save more than 200,000 lives around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565996/original/file-20231215-17-e10ab3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4500%2C2923&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fresh-raw-vegetable-ingredients-healthy-cooking-420828667">Foxys Forest Manufacture/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Adopting a healthier diet will probably feature prominently in many of our new year’s resolutions. But it’s often <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292120301100">challenging</a> for people to live up to their intentions. </p>
<p>But there are good reasons to persist in making deliberate choices about what’s on your plate. These choices not only impact your own health, they affect the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13959">health of the planet</a> too. </p>
<p>Food systems represent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions. If left unchecked, these emissions would probably add enough extra warming to take Earth’s average temperature <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-food-system-emissions-alone-threaten-warming-beyond-1-5-c-but-we-can-act-now-to-stop-it-149312">beyond a 1.5°C rise</a> in the 2060s. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2013637118">Research</a> is now also establishing air pollution on the list of problems caused by agriculture. Animal farming, in particular, is a major source of ammonia emissions. These emissions react with other pollutants to form fine particulate matter, which can cause health issues like cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and diabetes. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41789-3">recent study</a> reveals that shifting from current diets to healthier, more plant-based ones could prevent up to 236,000 premature deaths around the world and boost global GDP – simply by improving air quality.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-food-system-emissions-alone-threaten-warming-beyond-1-5-c-but-we-can-act-now-to-stop-it-149312">Global food system emissions alone threaten warming beyond 1.5°C – but we can act now to stop it</a>
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<h2>Healthier diets, cleaner air</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health">World Health Organization</a>, there were 4 million premature deaths linked to outdoor air pollution in 2019. Agriculture is responsible for roughly <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15371">one-fifth</a> of these deaths. </p>
<p>We studied what would happen to air quality if people around the world shifted towards diets that are healthier and better for the environment. This includes flexitarian diets with less meat, vegetarian diets with no meat and vegan diets with no animal products. </p>
<p>Our results show that shifting towards plant-based diets could significantly reduce air pollution. Areas with lots of livestock, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, northern Italy, southern China and the mid-west US (in <a href="https://cjones.iihr.uiowa.edu/blog/2019/03/iowas-real-population">Iowa</a>, there are eight pigs for every person), would see particularly pronounced reductions in the concentration of fine particulate matter.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pigs in an outdoor pen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566005/original/file-20231215-23-fim9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are more pigs in Iowa than there are people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pigs-play-1127934242">Shelly Hauschel/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Better air quality leads to better health. We found that over 100,000 premature deaths could be prevented globally by adopting flexitarian diets. The health gains from cleaner air add to the benefits obtained from eating a more balanced diet.</p>
<p>These health benefits increase as people eat fewer animal products. For example, if everyone went vegan, the number of premature deaths from air pollution could fall by more than 200,000. In Europe and North America, adopting vegan diets could reduce premature deaths from all air pollution by about 20%.</p>
<p>Clean air is an often overlooked but important aspect of the work environment. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aap7711">Research</a> has found that air pollution lowers the productivity of workers in many different jobs, from farms to factories. For instance, studies have shown that air pollution affects the productivity of <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.102.7.3652">blueberry pickers</a> and <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20150085">pear packers</a>. </p>
<p>Our estimates suggest that cleaner air can have a positive impact on the economy. We found that a shift to vegan diets could increase global GDP by more than 1% – a gain of US$1.3 trillion. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vegan-vegetarian-and-flexitarian-diets-could-save-you-money-new-research-171559">Vegan, vegetarian and flexitarian diets could save you money – new research</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Closeup of blueberry hand picker." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567231/original/file-20231222-21-8zh5ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Air pollution lowers worker productivity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-blueberries-hand-picker-old-wooden-1493085140">catalina.m/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Enabling change</h2>
<p>Improving air quality is undoubtedly beneficial for our health and the economy. We argue that dietary changes should thus be placed firmly on the policy menu. </p>
<p>Embracing more plant-based diets is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/vegan-vegetarian-and-flexitarian-diets-could-save-you-money-new-research-171559">cost-effective</a> strategy for tackling emissions. But it also lowers the need for expensive <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abf8623">investments</a> in emission-reducing equipment for livestock systems, such as <a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/the-benefits-of-using-air-scrubbers-in-pig-buildings">scrubbers</a> that remove ammonia from the air.</p>
<p>Eating less meat would also diminish the need for other, more drastic, measures to curb pollution. For instance, researchers have previously <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00453-z">suggested</a> moving 10 billion animals away from southern and eastern China to reduce ammonia exposure for people in these regions.</p>
<p>Shifting to healthier and more plant-based diets offers a wide range of benefits beyond clean air. These benefits include a lower risk of diet-related diseases, bringing down greenhouse gas emissions and lowering the use of land, water and fertilisers for agriculture. </p>
<p>Achieving ambitious progress in all these areas at the same time will be challenging if we rely on technological solutions alone.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A farmer feeding cows on a farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566011/original/file-20231215-23-c6l5hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmed cattle in Luannan County, Hebei Province, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/luannan-county-august-28-breeder-cleaning-321377315">Yuangeng Zhang/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the summer of 2023, the German supermarket chain Penny carried out a week-long <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/31/german-supermarket-penny-trial-climate-cost-food-meat-cheese">experiment</a> to raise awareness of the real cost of food products on people’s health and the environment. The prices charged to customers factored in the impact of food products on soil, water use, health and the climate.</p>
<p>This concept could be applied more broadly. But to make this policy fair and acceptable, it needs to be coupled with ways to use tax revenues to ensure consumers are not left worse off, such as reducing <a href="https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=6924">VAT on fruit and vegetable products</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3155">compensating vulnerable households</a>. In this way, overall food expenditure would be kept in check and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00849-z">low-income households</a> would be protected. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-cost-of-food-high-grocery-prices-are-not-the-root-issue-207702">The true cost of food: High grocery prices are not the root issue</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Together with measures to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27645-2">guide farmers in the transition</a>, our food systems can be steered towards sustainability, helping people deliver on their New Year’s resolutions.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Springmann receives funding from the Wellcome Trust and Horizon Europe.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toon Vandyck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Switching to a plant-based diet could save lives.Toon Vandyck, Research Fellow in Economics, KU LeuvenMarco Springmann, Senior Researcher on Environment and Health, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186132023-12-04T08:40:53Z2023-12-04T08:40:53ZTackling climate change can improve public health in Africa – new report highlights how<p>African countries can simultaneously address climate change and improve public health by reducing air pollution. In many cases these actions also have other <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0012-x">societal, economic, environment or health benefits</a>. </p>
<p>Addressing these together is challenging because they are often the responsibility of different government departments. International climate change, health and development processes are often also separate discussions. However, for the first time, this year at COP28, a whole day will be devoted to discussing the linkages between climate change and health. </p>
<p>In September 2023, the African Union, United Nations Environment Programme, Climate and Clean Air Coalition and Stockholm Environment Institute released the technical report behind the <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/resources/full-report-integrated-assessment-air-pollution-and-climate-change-sustainable-development-africa">Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa</a> at the African Climate Summit in Nairobi, Kenya. </p>
<p>The report identified actions that could be taken across Africa in the short, medium and long term to simultaneously address climate change and improve public health. The actions reduce exposure to toxic air pollution and achieve other development priorities outlined in the African Union’s <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">Agenda 2063 </a> – the Africa We Want.</p>
<p>It builds on <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/content/ccac-assessments">strong evidence</a> that air pollution is a leading health risk; that the causes of air pollution strongly overlap with those of climate change; and that there are readily available <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/resources/opportunities-increasing-ambition-nationally-determined-contributions-through-integrated-air-pollution-and-climate-change-planning-practical-guidance-document">policies and measures</a> that simultaneously benefit each issue. </p>
<p>We served as co-chairs, steering committee members and coordinators of the integrated assessment. We brought together expertise in climate change, air pollution, public health, energy and agriculture. We joined over 100 authors from 17 African countries, and representatives from climate change ministries in 35 countries, to produce the report. </p>
<p>At its heart, the report assesses how climate actions could be implemented across Africa, and the benefits of doing so. It shows that, through 37 priority actions, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths could be avoided yearly due to improved air quality. This will also reduce Africa’s climate change contribution. </p>
<p>The report highlights five key reasons why these actions should be a priority: </p>
<p>1) adverse impact of air pollution on health across Africa</p>
<p>2) projected increases in emissions without intervention </p>
<p>3) multiple benefits from their implementation</p>
<p>4) reduced climate impacts in Africa </p>
<p>5) demonstrated implementation in Africa. </p>
<h2>Air pollution is causing premature deaths</h2>
<p>A lack of action to check key emission sources is robbing Africans of their health. Africa is responsible for about <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%205-%20Aligning%20Air%20Quality%2C%20Climate%20Change%20And%20Development%20Objectives%20to%20Promote%20Action%20in%20Africa.pdf#page=9">4%</a> of global carbon dioxide emissions causing climate change. The resultant air pollution has a strong impact on public health. </p>
<p>In 2019, air pollution <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%201-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Development%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Air%20Pollution%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf#page=18">caused</a> 1.1 million premature deaths on the continent. Deaths mainly occurred from cooking with wood and charcoal (<a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%201-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Development%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Air%20Pollution%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf#page=20">almost 700,000 premature deaths</a>), and poor outdoor air quality (<a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%201-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Development%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Air%20Pollution%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf#page=20">almost 400,000 premature deaths</a>).</p>
<p>Air pollution particularly affects children. About 56% of global air pollution-linked infant deaths occur in Africa (<a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%201-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Development%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Air%20Pollution%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf#page=21">383,000 infant deaths</a>). </p>
<p>Sources of air pollution and emissions that cause climate change strongly overlap in Africa. They include fuels used for cooking, transportation, power generation and industries, agriculture, and waste management.</p>
<h2>Inaction will worsen impact of climate change</h2>
<p>Without action, Africa’s climate change contribution could <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%202-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Future%20Under%20a%20Current%20Policy%20Trajectory.pdf#page=30">triple</a> by 2063. Health and climate change impacts could <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%202-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Future%20Under%20a%20Current%20Policy%20Trajectory.pdf#page=30">worsen</a> because the impact of air pollution on health would more than double.</p>
<p>Without intervention, projected economic development, population and urbanisation would substantially <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/Chapter%202-%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Future%20Under%20a%20Current%20Policy%20Trajectory.pdf#page=19">increase</a> fuel and electricity consumption and more than triple demand for transportation, food, and waste generation.</p>
<h2>Five focal areas for 37 climate actions</h2>
<p>Hundreds of thousands of premature deaths every year could be avoided through climate action in Africa. The <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/resources/full-report-integrated-assessment-air-pollution-and-climate-change-sustainable-development-africa">assessment</a> identified 37 specific actions across five areas that could check climate change and reduce air pollution. The five areas are</p>
<ul>
<li><p>transport</p></li>
<li><p>residential</p></li>
<li><p>energy and industry</p></li>
<li><p>agriculture</p></li>
<li><p>waste. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>If all 37 actions were to be implemented, the most health-damaging air pollutant emissions could be reduced by 35% by 2030, and 80% by 2063. This would save the lives of 180,000 people who could have died prematurely yearly by 2030, and 800,000 by 2063. The most effective actions include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>use of clean cooking fuels and technologies, especially transition to electricity as a primary source of cooking fuel </p></li>
<li><p>emission controls for vehicles and increased use of electric vehicles </p></li>
<li><p>renewable electricity deployment and energy efficiency measures in industry and businesses</p></li>
<li><p>transforming management practices in agriculture and reduced open burning of crop residues</p></li>
<li><p>best waste management practices, including avoiding open waste burning, and reducing waste generation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The same 37 actions can reduce Africa’s contribution to climate change by 20% by 2030, and by 60% by 2063.</p>
<h2>Climate action can check rainfall and temperature extremes</h2>
<p>Climate change impacts that Africa will suffer are primarily determined by the future emission pathways of other continents that emit the majority of greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore imperative for health protection in Africa that other regions rapidly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>However, the assessment <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00382-7">shows</a> that implementing the 37 actions could limit the negative effects of regional climate change on rainfall and temperature. This is especially in the Sahel region. This could substantially reduce land degradation and safeguard food production.</p>
<h2>Scaling climate action</h2>
<p>Action is being taken, but needs to be rapidly scaled up. The assessment emphasises that all the recommended actions are currently being implemented in Africa. Scaling up across Africa requires a well-funded and resourced continent-wide programme on clean air. The report recommends that such a programme should cover development and enforcement of national regulations, regional standards, and transparent monitoring of progress. </p>
<p>The African Ministerial Conference on the Environment has <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/41324/AMCEN_English.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y#page=7">urged</a> that the <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/41324/AMCEN_English.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y#page=13">Clean Air Programme</a> should be coordinated by strong country-led initiatives, cascaded to the regional economic communities and higher levels of policy.</p>
<p>COP28 can be used to accelerate the recommendations from the report for sustainable development in Africa. Additional commitment to implement and monitor these measures, and new finance and investment to achieve scale, would help ensure that climate change actions benefit people across the continent. </p>
<p><em>Brian Mantlana, climate change lead at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research in South Africa, and Caroline Tagwireyi, consultant, Ampelos International Consultancy, Harare, Zimbabwe, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Malley receives funding from United Nations Environment Programme-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Akinyi Kaudia receives funding from United Nations Environment Programme-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andriannah Mbandi receives funding from the United Nations Environment Programme-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Hicks receives funding from the United Nations Environment Programme - convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Osano receives funding from the United Nations Environment Programme - convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Youba Sokona receives funding from the United Nations Environment Programme-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition. </span></em></p>Africa can check climate impact on health by taking 37 actions endorsed by environment ministers.Chris Malley, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre, University of YorkAlice Akinyi Kaudia, Associate Lecturer, University of NairobiAndriannah Mbandi, Lecturer, South Eastern Kenya UniversityKevin Hicks, Senior Research Fellow, University of YorkPhilip Osano, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment InstituteYouba Sokona, Vice-président du GIEC et professeur honoraire, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182312023-11-23T19:04:01Z2023-11-23T19:04:01ZPollution from coal power plants contributes to far more deaths than scientists realized, study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560874/original/file-20231121-4173-worc70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C107%2C5083%2C3435&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kids jump on a trampoline as steam rises from a coal power plant in Adamsville, Ala., in 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kids-jump-on-a-trampoline-at-their-grandparents-home-as-news-photo/1232409457?adppopup=true"> Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Air pollution particles from coal-fired power plants are more harmful to human health than many experts realized, and it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">more than twice as likely to contribute to premature deaths</a> as air pollution particles from other sources, new research demonstrates.</p>
<p>In the study, published in the journal Science, colleagues and I mapped how U.S. coal power plant emissions traveled through the atmosphere, then linked each power plant’s emissions with death records of Americans over 65 years old on Medicare.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that air pollutants released from coal power plants were associated with nearly half a million premature deaths of elderly Americans from 1999 to 2020.</p>
<p>It’s a staggering number, but the study also has good news: Annual deaths associated with U.S. coal power plants have fallen sharply since the mid-2000s as <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-us-coal-power-is-disappearing-and-a-supreme-court-ruling-wont-save-it-187254">federal regulations compelled operators</a> to install emissions scrubbers and many utilities shut down coal plants entirely.</p>
<p>In 1999, 55,000 deaths were attributable to coal air pollution in the U.S., according to our findings. By 2020, that number had fallen to 1,600.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2941/lucas-maps-GIF5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> How PM2.5 levels from coal power plants in the U.S. have declined since 1999 as more plants installed pollution-control devices or shut down. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<p>In the U.S., coal is being displaced by natural gas and renewable energy for generating electricity. Globally, however, coal use is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">projected to increase</a> in coming years. That makes our results all the more urgent for global decision-makers to understand as they develop future policies.</p>
<h2>Coal air pollution: What makes it so bad?</h2>
<p>A landmark study in the 1990s, known as the <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199312093292401">Harvard Six Cities Study</a>, linked tiny airborne particles called PM2.5 to increased risk of early death. Other studies have since linked PM2.5 to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nano12152656">lung and heart disease, cancer</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300">dementia</a> and other diseases. </p>
<p>Following that research, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/timeline-particulate-matter-pm-national-ambient-air-quality-standards-naaqs">began regulating PM2.5 concentrations in 1997</a> and has lowered the acceptable limit over time.</p>
<p>PM2.5 – particles small enough to be inhaled deep into our lungs – comes from several different sources, including gasoline combustion in vehicles and smoke from wood fires and power plants. It is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics#PM">made up of many</a> different chemicals.</p>
<p>Coal is also a mix of many chemicals – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.04.070">carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, even metals</a>. When coal is burned, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coal/coal-and-the-environment.php">all of these chemicals</a> are emitted to the atmosphere either as gases or particles. Once there, they are transported by the wind and interact with other chemicals already in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>As a result, anyone downwind of a coal plant may be breathing a complex cocktail of chemicals, each with its own potential effects on human health.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2934/lucas-gif1.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption> Two months of emissions from Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power station near Atlanta, show how wind influences the spread of air pollution. Lucas Henneman.</figcaption></figure>
<h2>Tracking coal PM2.5</h2>
<p>To understand the risks coal emissions pose to human health, we tracked how sulfur dioxide emissions from each of the 480 largest U.S. coal power plants operating at any point since 1999 traveled with the wind and turned into tiny particles – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf4915">coal PM2.5</a>. We used sulfur dioxide because of its known health effects and drastic decreases in emissions over the study period.</p>
<p>We then used a statistical model to link coal PM2.5 exposure to Medicare records of nearly 70 million people from 1999 to 2020. This model allowed us to calculate the number of deaths associated with coal PM2.5.</p>
<p>In our statistical model, we controlled for other pollution sources and accounted for many other known risk factors, like smoking status, local meteorology and income level. We tested multiple statistical approaches that all yielded consistent results. We compared the results of our statistical model with <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba5692">previous results</a> testing the health impacts of PM2.5 from other sources and found that PM2.5 from coal is twice as harmful as PM2.5 from all other sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people stand outside an older brick home with power plant smokestacks in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561153/original/file-20231122-17-wwzsob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents living near the Cheswick coal-fired power plant in Springdale, Pa., publicly complained about the amount of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and coal particles from the plant for years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marti-blake-speaks-to-the-postman-in-front-of-the-smoke-news-photo/874051624">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of deaths associated with individual power plants depended on multiple factors – how much the plant emits, which way the wind blows and how many people breathe in the pollution. Unfortunately, U.S. utilities located many of their plants upwind of major population centers on the East Coast. This siting amplified these plants’ impacts.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://cpieatgt.github.io/cpie/">interactive online tool</a>, users can look up our estimates of annual deaths associated with each U.S. power plant and also see how those numbers have fallen over time at most U.S. coal plants.</p>
<h2>A US success story and the global future of coal</h2>
<p>Engineers have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">designing effective scrubbers</a> and other pollution-control devices that can reduce pollution from coal-fired power plants for several years. And the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/Cross-State-Air-Pollution/overview-cross-state-air-pollution-rule-csapr">EPA has rules</a> specifically to encourage utilities that used coal to install them, and most facilities that did not install scrubbers have shut down.</p>
<p>The results have been dramatic: Sulfur dioxide emissions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.670200410">decreased about 90%</a> in facilities that reported installing scrubbers. Nationwide, sulfur dioxide emissions decreased 95% since 1999. According to our tally, deaths attributable to each facility that installed a scrubber or shut down decreased drastically.</p>
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<p>As advances in fracking techniques reduced the cost of natural gas, and regulations made running coal plants more expensive, <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007819500088">utilities began replacing coal with natural gas</a> plants and renewable energy. The shift to natural gas – a cleaner-burning fossil fuel than coal but still a greenhouse gas <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-announces-a-sweeping-methane-plan-heres-why-cutting-the-greenhouse-gas-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-168220">contributing to climate change</a> – led to even further air pollution reductions.</p>
<p>Today, coal contributes about 27% of electricity in the U.S., <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T02.06#/?f=A">down from 56% in 1999</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, however, the outlook for coal is mixed. While the U.S. and other nations are headed toward a future with substantially less coal, the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">expects global coal use to increase</a> through at least 2025.</p>
<p>Our study and others like it make clear that increases in coal use will harm human health and the climate. Making full use of emissions controls and a turn toward renewables are surefire ways to reduce coal’s negative impacts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Henneman receives funding from the Health Effects Institute, the National Institute of Health, and the Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>The longest-running study of its kind reviewed death records in the path of pollution from coal-fired power plants. The numbers are staggering − but also falling fast as US coal plants close.Lucas Henneman, Assistant Professor of Engineering, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159902023-11-08T19:10:41Z2023-11-08T19:10:41ZHeat, cold, pollution, noise and insects: too many apartment blocks aren’t up to the challenge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554915/original/file-20231020-21-akslzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C2661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie-May Kerr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://theconversation.com/poorly-ventilated-buildings-are-allowed-under-australia-rules-its-time-to-fix-it-189229">highlighted the impacts of air quality</a> on high-rise living. However, apartments face a range of atmospheric challenges. These include air and noise pollution, temperature and weather extremes, bushfire smoke and insects.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00420980231205026">newly published research</a> shows how apartment residents struggle with the impacts of unhealthy homes. It’s a result of decades of urban planning based on fossil fuel use and high-rise building standards poorly adapted to the Australian environment.</p>
<p>Our study involved residents of apartments in Liverpool CBD in New South Wales. They are exposed to particulate pollution from heavy truck movements tied to the <a href="https://www.liverpool.nsw.gov.au/development/major-projects/moorebank-intermodal">Moorebank freight terminal</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2021.1946244">smoke</a> from <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13514">increasingly severe bushfires</a> and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">rising number of days of extreme heat</a> each year. </p>
<p>Residents in our study <a href="https://theconversation.com/wanted-family-friendly-apartments-but-what-do-families-want-from-apartments-203921">preferred centrally located apartments</a> to detached, car-dependent houses. However, our interviews revealed apartments were hot in summer, cold in winter and prone to mould, condensation, noise and air pollution. The lower people’s socioeconomic status, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/out-in-the-heat-why-poorer-suburbs-are-more-at-risk-in-warming-cities-66213">more likely they are to be exposed</a> to such problems.</p>
<p>At the same time, residents’ experiences pointed to low-cost, low-tech solutions. Sustainable, climate-adapted <a href="https://www.nightingalehousing.org/">apartment designs</a> would allow for better natural airflow, shading and screening.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wanted-family-friendly-apartments-but-what-do-families-want-from-apartments-203921">Wanted: family-friendly apartments. But what do families want from apartments?</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Buildings that are bad for health and sleep</h2>
<p>Ayasha’s experience in a two-bedroom apartment, built in 2017, highlighted the health costs of flawed design and a lack of insulation. She told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] at night-time it gets really cold because of the fog, like the interior glass gets wet and the room is always wet even when the heater is on […] Both of my daughter and me are having this cough thing because of the continuous heater […] For the last three weeks continuously she has this runny nose, like teary eyes and cough. She’s not recovering at all.</p>
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<p>For Naomi, dampness in the 2016 two-bedroom apartment she and her husband bought caused concern about mould:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’re conscious of the mould and we’re trying to keep the house aerated but it is very hard. In the bathroom, there’s a vent but it’s not strong and you don’t really want the window open for too long when it’s cold, so it does get a real build-up of moisture […] You’ll wake up and you can see a layer of wet all up the windows and on the ledge and it’s really hard to dry everything out.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mould-and-damp-health-costs-are-about-3-times-those-of-sugary-drinks-we-need-a-healthy-housing-agenda-147743">Mould and damp health costs are about 3 times those of sugary drinks. We need a healthy housing agenda</a>
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<p>Sarah’s 2018 apartment lacked flyscreens and ceiling fans to allow natural airflow through all the rooms. She said air conditioning became essential for coping with summer heat and avoiding unwanted insects.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We did open the doors a couple of times, the mosquitoes would get in and they would attack the baby. Like one time, she had 20 bites on her head one night […] and that was when we realised, no, we’re just gonna have to put the air con on.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">Why Western Sydney is feeling the heat from climate change more than the rest of the city</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wanted: better regulations and development models</h2>
<p>Residents’ experiences reflect <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/13/freezing-indoors-thats-because-australian-homes-are-closer-to-tents-than-insulated-eco-buildings">low building standards</a> in Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/400">Recent research</a> on how to deliver sustainable apartment housing underscores the limitations of the <a href="https://ncc.abcb.gov.au/">National Construction Code</a>, building materials and minimum regulations. This 2023 study called for better regulations targeting project design, compliance with standards, property valuation and transparent information about properties’ sustainability features.</p>
<p>As with all complex reforms, there are concerns the development industry will resist. Thus, some have <a href="https://www.propertycouncil.com.au/national/build-to-rent-could-become-major-driver-for-sustainability">suggested expanding the build-to-rent sector</a> to achieve more sustainable apartment design. </p>
<p>Typically, diversified construction, finance and superannuation firms support this model of developing housing specifically to be rented. They have deeper pockets and a longer-term interest in the energy performance of buildings. </p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-to-rent-surge-will-change-apartment-living-for-australians-but-for-better-or-worse-154839">studies</a> show the build-to-rent sector is concentrated in higher-value locations. Costly subsidies and incentives would be needed to move it to areas where better, affordable housing is most needed.</p>
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<h2>Low-cost, low-tech solutions</h2>
<p>Residents’ experiences reveal a range of low-cost, low-tech solutions that could easily be mandated for all apartment housing. These solutions include flyscreens, ceiling fans, external shading and adequate insulation.</p>
<p>Reminiscent of pre-air-conditioning building design, these solutions allow for flexibility in building facades, enabling both airflow and screening. </p>
<p>The same principles characterised early 20th-century, high-rise architecture. These buildings featured terraces, mesh balustrades, exhaust flues, cross-ventilation, sunrooms, external shading, louvres and screens “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691170039/modern-architecture-and-climate">as a strategy of climate adaptability</a>”.</p>
<p>The rise of air conditioning in the 20th century cemented apartments as enclosed environments. Models that depend on shutting the doors and windows and turning on the air conditioner are no longer viable in a climate crisis. Increasing living costs also mean many households can’t afford to use air conditioning. </p>
<p>COVID-19, too, has made enhancing <a href="https://theconversation.com/many-of-our-buildings-are-poorly-ventilated-and-that-adds-to-covid-risks-149830">natural airflow in buildings</a> more important.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-cities-australias-building-and-planning-rules-stand-in-the-way-of-getting-there-84263">Sustainable cities? Australia's building and planning rules stand in the way of getting there</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Looking down from the top of a room at a ceiling fan and man sitting at a desk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554718/original/file-20231019-22-morjgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ceiling fans, louvres and cross-ventilation are a proven, low-cost way to create comfortable and healthy conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time to champion an Australian high-rise architecture</h2>
<p>Australian governments, including the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-16/nsw-social-housing-224-m-budget-spend-not-enough-advocates/102864026">NSW government</a>, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/planning-laws-protect-people-a-poorly-regulated-rush-to-boost-housing-supply-will-cost-us-all-213068">committed</a> to delivering more affordable housing. But high-rise developments are often sited in polluted, noisy, freezing and sweltering environments. They get <a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-access-is-good-for-new-housing-but-beware-the-pollution-77790">clustered around freeways and other busy roads</a> to avoid political backlash from residents opposed to such developments.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/planning-laws-protect-people-a-poorly-regulated-rush-to-boost-housing-supply-will-cost-us-all-213068">Planning laws protect people. A poorly regulated rush to boost housing supply will cost us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>At the same time, housing researchers are increasingly <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/400">concerned about the energy emissions</a> of high-rise buildings.</p>
<p>Planning that optimises building orientation – to best access sunlight and ventilation – and apartment design standards adapted to the Australian environment are urgently needed. Otherwise households will be locked into unsustainable, <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/400">single-access apartments</a> devoid of cross-ventilation, screens or shading. </p>
<p>This sort of housing is <a href="https://theconversation.com/mould-and-damp-health-costs-are-about-3-times-those-of-sugary-drinks-we-need-a-healthy-housing-agenda-147743">bad for residents’ health and wellbeing</a>. It will also add to <a href="https://theconversation.com/out-in-the-heat-why-poorer-suburbs-are-more-at-risk-in-warming-cities-66213">energy poverty</a> for decades to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Apartment residents need more sustainable, climate-adapted designs. They shouldn’t have to depend on costly, high-emissions air conditioning to remain comfortable and healthy.Nicole Cook, Lecturer, School of Geography and Sustainable Communities, University of WollongongSophie-May Kerr, Research Associate, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164592023-10-30T16:35:41Z2023-10-30T16:35:41ZCarbon budget for 1.5°C will run out in six years at current emissions levels – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556613/original/file-20231030-19-ti4omc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pipe-emissions-into-atmosphere-on-horizon-562268431">Mykhailo Pavlenko/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If humanity wants to have a 50-50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we can only emit another 250 gigatonnes (billion metric tonnes) of CO₂. This effectively gives the world just six years to get to net zero, according to calculations in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5">our new paper</a> published in Nature Climate Change.</p>
<p>The global level of emissions is presently 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year. And, as this figure was calculated from the start of 2023, the time limit may be actually closer to five years. </p>
<p>Our estimate is consistent with an <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/#section8">assessment</a> published by 50 leading climate scientists in June and updates with new climate data many of the key figures reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-global-emissions-must-peak-by-2025-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-we-need-deeds-not-words-165598">in August 2021</a>.</p>
<p>How much CO₂ can still be emitted while remaining under a certain level of warming is referred to as the “carbon budget”. The carbon budget concept works because the increase in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has increased in a linear fashion with the total amount of CO₂ people have emitted since the industrial revolution. </p>
<p>The other side of this equation is that, roughly speaking, warming stops when CO₂ emissions stop: in other words, at net zero CO₂. This explains why net zero is such an important concept and why so many countries, cities, and companies have adopted net zero targets.</p>
<p>We revised the remaining carbon budget down from the 500 gigatonnes reported by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-5/#5.5.2">the IPCC</a> from the start of 2020. Some of this revision is merely timing: three years and 120 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions later, the world is closer to the 1.5°C threshold. Improvements we made to the method for calculating budget adjustments shrank the remaining budget further.</p>
<h2>Clearing the air</h2>
<p>Alongside CO₂, humanity emits other greenhouse gases and air pollutants that contribute to climate change. We adjusted the budget to account for the projected warming caused by these non-CO₂ pollutants. To do this, we used a <a href="https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6">large database of future emissions scenarios</a> to determine how non-CO₂ warming is related to total warming.</p>
<p>Some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases is offset by cooling aerosols such as sulphates – air pollutants that are emitted along with CO₂ from car exhausts and furnaces. Almost all emissions scenarios project a reduction in aerosol emissions in the future, regardless of whether fossil fuels are phased out or CO₂ emissions continue unabated. Even in scenarios where CO₂ emissions increase, scientists expect stricter air quality legislation and cleaner combustion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cars surrounded by exhaust fumes in traffic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556648/original/file-20231030-28-eup0zu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists predict air pollution which cools the climate will decline in future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pollution-exhaust-cars-city-winter-smoke-1882292326">NadyGinzburg/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">most recent report</a>, the IPCC updated its best estimate of how much air pollution cools the climate. As a result, we expect that falling air pollution in future will contribute more to warming than previously assessed. This reduces the remaining 1.5°C budget by about another 110 gigatonnes.</p>
<p>Other updates we made to the carbon budget methodology tend to reduce the budget even more, such as projections of thawing permafrost that were not included in earlier estimates.</p>
<h2>All is not lost</h2>
<p>It is important to stress that many aspects of our carbon budget estimate are uncertain. The balance of non-CO₂ pollutants in future emissions scenarios can be as influential on the remaining carbon budget as different interpretations of how the climate is likely to respond.</p>
<p>We also do not know for sure whether the planet will really stop warming at net zero CO₂ emissions. On average, evidence from climate models tends to suggest it will, but some models show substantial warming continuing for decades after net zero is reached. If further warming after net zero is the case, the budget would be further reduced.</p>
<p>These uncertain factors are why we quote a 50/50 likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C at 250 gigatonnes of CO₂. A more risk-averse assessment would report a two-in-three chance of staying under 1.5°C with a remaining budget of 60 gigatonnes - or one-and-a-half years of current emissions.</p>
<p>Time is running out to limit global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While we have revised the remaining carbon budget, the message from earlier assessments is unchanged: a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to halt climate change. </p>
<p>It looks less likely that we will limit warming to 1.5°C, but this does not mean that we should give up hope. Our update also revised the budget for 2°C downwards relative to the IPCC’s 2021 estimate, but by a smaller amount – from 1,350 to 1,220 gigatonnes, or from 34 to 30 years of current emissions. If current national climate policies are fully implemented (admittedly, an optimistic scenario), this may be enough to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04553-z">hold warming below 2°C</a>.</p>
<p>The risks of triggering tipping points such as the dieback of the Amazon rainforest increase – sometimes sharply – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-el-nino-means-for-the-worlds-perilous-climate-tipping-points-209083">with increasing warming</a>, but 1.5°C itself is not a hard boundary beyond which climate chaos abounds.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dry and cracked river bed with rainforest in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556621/original/file-20231030-27-o36b4j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tipping points in the Earth system could dramatically accelerate climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/like-many-rivers-amazon-rainforest-tambopata-2369657085">Beto Santillan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With effective action on emissions, we can still limit peak warming to 1.6°C or 1.7°C, with a view to bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C in the longer term. </p>
<p>This is a goal absolutely worth pursuing.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Smith receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and UK Research and Innovation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Lamboll has received EU Horizon funding from PROVIDE and CONSTRAIN.</span></em></p>For a two-in-three chance of staying within 1.5°C, the budget shrinks to one-and-a-half years.Chris Smith, Senior Research Fellow in Climate Science, University of LeedsRobin Lamboll, Research Fellow in Atmospheric Science, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140652023-10-26T01:12:15Z2023-10-26T01:12:15Z3 ways to prepare for bushfire season if you have asthma or another lung condition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555707/original/file-20231025-25-7t7ylm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C994%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunlight-shining-through-smoke-haze-coloring-1605818323">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s bushfire season is officially <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/fire-season-commences">under way</a> during an <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-the-return-of-el-nino-means/">El Niño</a>. And after three wet years, and the <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023#:%7E:text=For%20spring%202023%2C%20increased%20risk,bushfire%20this%20season%20are%20widespread">plant growth</a> that comes with it, there’s fuel to burn.</p>
<p>With the prospect of <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-australia-is-set-for-a-hot-dry-el-nino-heres-what-that-means-for-our-flammable-continent-209126">catastrophic bushfire</a> comes smoke. This not only affects people in bushfire regions, but those <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">in cities and towns</a> far away, as smoke travels. </p>
<p>People with a <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/10.1164/rccm.202012-4471LE">lung condition</a> are among those especially affected.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-mood-usually-lifts-in-spring-but-after-early-heatwaves-and-bushfires-this-year-may-be-different-213643">Our mood usually lifts in spring. But after early heatwaves and bushfires, this year may be different</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s so dangerous about bushfire smoke?</h2>
<p>Bushfire smoke <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/common-air-pollutants.aspx">pollutes the air</a> we breathe by increasing the concentration of particulate matter (or PM).</p>
<p>Once inhaled, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/particulate-matter.aspx">small particles</a> (especially with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, known as PM2.5) can get deep into the lungs and into the bloodstream. </p>
<p>Concentration of gases in the air – such as <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/ozone.aspx">ozone</a>, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/nitrogen-dioxide.aspx">nitrogen dioxide</a> and <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/environment/air/Pages/sulphur-dioxide.aspx">sulfur dioxide</a> – also increase, to pollute the air.</p>
<p>All these cause the airway to <a href="https://www.alfredhealth.org.au/news/the-effects-of-bushfire-smoke-explained/">narrow and spasm</a>, making it hard to breathe. </p>
<p>This can be even worse for people with existing asthma or other respiratory conditions whose airways are already inflamed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">Bushfire smoke is everywhere in our cities. Here's exactly what you are inhaling</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Emergency department visits and hospital admissions for asthma-related symptoms <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935119305742?dgcid=author">rise</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33601224/">after exposure</a> to bushfire smoke.</p>
<p>Smoke from the bushfires in summer 2019/20 <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/issues/213_06/mja250545.pdf">resulted in</a> an estimated 400 deaths or more from any cause, more than 1,300 emergency department visits for asthma symptoms, and more than 2,000 hospital admissions for respiratory issues.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1265122247628386305"}"></div></p>
<p>Even if symptoms are not serious enough to warrant emergency medical attention, exposure to bushfire smoke <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/staying-healthy/environmental/after-a-disaster/bushfires/bushfire-smoke-and-your-health#:%7E:text=Signs%20of%20smoke%20irritation%20include,throat%2C%20runny%20nose%20and%20coughing">can lead to</a> cough, nasal congestion, wheezing and asthma flares.</p>
<p>If you have <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-causes-asthma-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-96409">asthma</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease-25539">chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</a>, <a href="https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/bronchiectasis#:%7E:text=Bronchiectasis%20is%20a%20condition%20that,These%20tubes%20are%20called%20airways.">bronchiectasis</a> or another lung condition, or you care for someone who has, here’s what you can do to prepare for the season ahead.</p>
<h2>1. Avoid smoke</h2>
<p>Monitor your local air quality by downloading one or both of these apps:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://asthma.org.au/what-we-do/current-projects/airsmart/">AirSmart</a> from Asthma Australia has live air-quality information to help you plan and act</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://airrater.org/">AirRater</a>, developed by Australian scientists, can be another useful app to monitor your environment, track your symptoms and help manage your health. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>During times of poor air quality and smoke stay indoors and avoid smoke exposure. Close windows and doors, and if you have one, use an air conditioner to recirculate the air. </p>
<p>Avoid unnecessary <a href="https://28bysamwood.com/blog/fitness/should-you-exercise-if-its-smoky-outside/">physical activity</a> which makes us breathe more to deliver more oxygen to the body, but also means we inhale more polluted air. Consider temporarily moving to a safer residence. </p>
<p>Well-fitting N95/P2 masks can reduce your exposure to fine smoke particles if you must travel. However they can make it more difficult to breathe if you are unwell. In that case, you may find a mask with a valve <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">more comfortable</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person holding a N95/P2 respirator" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555709/original/file-20231025-17-n7pp9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Well-fitting N95/P2 masks can help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-20200105-trojan-p2-disposable-1608222889">Daria Nipot/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">How to protect yourself against bushfire smoke this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Have an action plan</h2>
<p>Taking your regular preventer medication ensures your lung health is optimised before the danger period. </p>
<p>Ensure you have a <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/health-professionals/asthma-action-plans">written action plan</a>. This provides you with clear instructions on how to take early actions to prevent symptoms deteriorating or to reduce the severity of flare-ups. Review this plan with your GP, share it with a family member, pin it to the fridge.</p>
<p>Make sure you have emergency medication available, know when to call for help, and what medication to take while you wait. You may consider storing an emergency “reliever puffer” in your home or with a neighbour.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-manage-your-essential-medicines-in-a-bushfire-or-other-emergency-127516">How to manage your essential medicines in a bushfire or other emergency</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Have the right equipment</h2>
<p>High-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters <a href="https://www.phrp.com.au/issues/online-early/residential-indoor-air-quality-and-hepa-cleaner-use/">can reduce</a> smoke exposure inside the home during a fire event by 30-74%. These filters remove particulate matter from the air. </p>
<p>A spacer, which is a small chamber to contain inhaled medication, can help you take emergency medication if you are breathing quickly. You may want to have one to hand.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-face-masks-to-air-purifiers-what-actually-works-to-protect-us-from-bushfire-smoke-128633">From face masks to air purifiers: what actually works to protect us from bushfire smoke?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People with a lung condition are among those particularly vulnerable to bushfire smoke. But you can prepare for the season ahead.Kazi Mizanur Rahman, Associate Professor of Healthcare Innovations, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond UniversityJoe Duncan, Clinical Associate Lecturer, Northern Clinical School and Lecturer, Internal Medicine. Rural Clinical School (Northern Rivers), University of SydneyJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117472023-09-28T19:58:50Z2023-09-28T19:58:50Z‘You’re constantly worrying’: pregnant women, bushfire smoke and the impossibility of safety<p>Smoke covered large swathes of Australia during the catastrophic summer fires of 2019-2020. You could see the plumes from space. Over 20% of Australia’s forests <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/25/unprecedented-globally-more-than-20-of-australias-forests-burnt-in-bushfires">went up</a> in smoke and flame. </p>
<p>As the fires spread, smoke covered towns and cities. Millions of people were suddenly confronted with bad air. Many had children. Many were pregnant. All worried about what the smoke might mean for their child. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/reproduction-kin-and-climate-crisis">new book</a> explores the worries and desperation of people who were pregnant or parenting during the unprecedented fires over the 2019–2020 summer. We drew on in-depth stories from 25 mothers (and sometimes their partners). </p>
<p>The smoke was something they had no control over. But public health advice told them they had the responsibility to keep their child safe. Mothers and their partners worried endlessly about what damage the pollutants in the air were doing. This, we argue, speaks to how those who have done little to fuel the climate crisis can be particularly at risk. </p>
<h2>What did we find?</h2>
<p>One woman, Renee, told us about the anxiety of being pregnant and with two small children in the smoke: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I was really worried about lung damage for my kids upstairs, but I was also worried, [for] like, brain development at that point, as you get into the end of the pregnancy […] I kept having conversations with myself going, ‘I’m not in my first 12 weeks, surely that’s riskier. I’m in this safer zone’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Renee’s story speaks to how our interviewees tried to take responsibility for themselves and their foetuses. </p>
<p>It was a common thread. The 25 mothers and partners we interviewed were living in Canberra or on the south coast of New South Wales. These areas were among the worst affected by smoke. </p>
<p>Renee’s feelings of risk and responsibility are amplified in an era that historian of fire Stephen Pyne has <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-signal-the-arrival-of-a-planetary-fire-age-125972">named the “Pyrocene</a>”, a time when bushfires and the burning of fossil fuels are careering out of control. </p>
<p>Our research shows pregnant people were framed as “doubly vulnerable” to smoke, due to their own exposure and that of their foetus. Health advice from organisations such as the <a href="https://www.thewomens.org.au/news/advice-for-pregnant-women-around-smoke-haze">Royal Women’s Hospital</a> urged them to stay indoors, use air-conditioning and to spend time at libraries and shopping centres to avoid exposure.</p>
<h2>Who is responsible?</h2>
<p>Given health warnings about smoke exposure, it’s not surprising our interviewees expressed considerable concern for their unborn babies. </p>
<p>Alice, pregnant during the fires: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was really constantly on my mind, and I tried to kind of not get too anxious about it, but it was really difficult because […] I mean, you just think about it all the time. You’re just constantly worrying when you’re pregnant what’s going to affect the baby. Like everything you do.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Gina, pregnant during the fires: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was just always kind of lingering, like we were just unsure about what kind of effects it would have on the development of his organs and whatever else. I was obviously more stressed than my husband, just because, you know, the mother is carrying the baby and there’s more stress just naturally on the mum</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even while worrying about the health of their babies, women also felt the responsibility for keeping them “safe” from smoke exposure fell primarily to them. </p>
<p>What we ask is – is this fair? As recent research <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00134-1/fulltext">makes clear</a>, pollutants such as bushfire smoke are uncontrollable. </p>
<p>Feminist scholars <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo117202096.html">note that</a> public health advice and scientific research tends to emphasise how vulnerable the foetus is and, by extension, place responsibility on the mother – even while acknowledging how little control they have over the situation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">Climate change hits low-income earners harder – and poor housing in hotter cities is a disastrous combination</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>When responsibility meets uncertainty</h2>
<p>Australia has long been affected by bushfires. But they’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">getting worse</a> as the world heats up. </p>
<p>There’s no roadmap for how to live with sudden crises such as fires or the long, slow burn of incremental change. We’re all experimenting at individual, household and community levels as well as nationally and regionally. </p>
<p>Many of us are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">having to tinker</a> with our machines and our homes to take care of others and to survive the new extremes. </p>
<p>Climate change is happening to the globe. But the devastation wreaked by extreme weather, disruption to farming or intensified fires is not evenly distributed, either by who did the most to cause it or by who is most hard hit. </p>
<p>Wealth magnifies unfairness. Those who have done the most to create and benefit from carbon-intensive capitalism are more likely to be able to shield themselves from <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)00919-4/fulltext">its effects</a>, while people who are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012">pregnant and parenting</a>, and <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires">First Nations people</a> – especially children aged five and under – are more vulnerable. </p>
<p>What we point to is a question. How can we find ways to take care of foetuses and young children without forcing parents (and mothers, in particular) to shoulder the impossible responsibility of safety? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-black-summer-bushfires-put-an-enormous-strain-on-families-with-young-children-we-cant-make-the-same-mistakes-again-205026">The Black Summer bushfires put an enormous strain on families with young children. We can't make the same mistakes again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If you were pregnant or parenting during Australia’s 2019–20 summer of smoke and fire, chances are you felt acutely anxious – and grappling with impossible responsibility.Mary Lou Rasmussen, Professor, School of Sociology, Australian National UniversityCelia Roberts, Professor of sociology, Australian National UniversityLouisa Allen, Professor, Faculty of Education and Social Work, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRebecca Williamson, Research Officer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2131222023-09-21T15:09:18Z2023-09-21T15:09:18ZHow air pollution is making life tougher for bugs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548018/original/file-20230913-25-fwkjh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C11%2C1273%2C1036&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Air pollution is the latest threat facing our insects.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robbie Girling/Inka Lusebrink</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether you love them or loathe them, we all depend on bugs. Insects help to pollinate <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/protect-pollinators-food-security-biodiversity-agriculture/">three-quarters</a> of the world’s crop varieties, making them a treasured resource. </p>
<p>But we’re making the lives of insects tough – and not just by swatting them away with a newspaper. Insect populations worldwide are in <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(19)30796-1.pdf">sharp decline</a> as they battle against climate change, habitat loss and pesticides. </p>
<p>Now, we can add air pollution to the list of threats. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749122000616">Our research</a> from 2022 revealed that when exposed to two common air pollutants at concentrations within <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/air/air-quality/eu-air-quality-standards_en">EU air quality limits</a>, the visits of pollinating insects to flowers plummeted by as much as 90%. </p>
<p>Over a span of two years, we artificially elevated the levels of either ozone or diesel exhaust fumes around plots of flowering black mustard plants, all within fields of non-flowering wheat. We carefully monitored and controlled the release of pollutants using rings constructed around each plot. </p>
<p>This method allowed us to monitor the number of pollinating insects visiting the flowers in polluted plots and draw comparisons with plots devoid of pollutants.</p>
<p>We were surprised by what we found. In the rings where we released ozone or diesel exhaust fumes, the number of pollinating insects decreased by 70% and overall pollination success rates decreased by up to 31%. </p>
<p>It wasn’t just bees and butterflies that were affected. Ground-dwelling insects suffered too, with exposure to these pollutants <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2022.833088/full">causing their numbers to decrease</a> by as much as 36%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fenced off ring in the middle of a field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=173&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=173&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=173&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547556/original/file-20230911-15463-a7zcdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eight rings were used to elevate pollution levels around flowering black mustard plants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neil Mullinger</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why air pollution makes life so hard</h2>
<p>Many insects rely on their sense of smell to locate flowers. When they feed on nectar, they quickly connect the flower’s scent with its sugary reward. Consequently, when they come across the same scent later on, they track its trail in pursuit of another tasty treat. </p>
<p>Thus, flowers serve a dual purpose. They are not just pretty to look at but also function as beacons that release a specific blend of fragrant chemicals designed to attract pollinators. </p>
<p>But these signals are under threat. Air pollutants like ozone are highly reactive and can degrade the signals by destroying the chemicals that make up a flower’s scent.</p>
<p>In our more <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749123013386?via%3Dihub">recent research</a>, we simulated a floral scent in a 20-metre long wind tunnel and then mapped out how the levels of each of the chemicals that made up the scent changed in response to increasing ozone pollution. We found that ozone quickly ate away at the edges of the plume, reducing both its width and length. </p>
<p>Essentially, the chemical signal could travel only a shorter distance, which limited the number of insects it could reach.</p>
<p>Adding ozone also changes the smell of each of the chemicals that make up a flower’s scent. By observing these changes in a wind tunnel, we could measure the speed at which these chemical changes occur. </p>
<p>Some chemicals degraded within seconds, whereas others were not affected at all. How far away you are from the scent’s source appears to change how the scent smells.</p>
<h2>Pavlov’s Bees</h2>
<p>To understand how changes to the floral scent might affect pollinators, we taught honeybees to recognise the same floral scent that we released into the wind tunnel. Much like <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/pavlov.html">Pavlov’s dogs</a> drooling at the sound of a dinner bell, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg2DSfuZDAk">bees stick out their proboscis</a> (tube-like tongue) when they sniff an odour they have learned to associate with a sugary reward. This allowed us to see how many bees could still recognise the floral scent once it had been exposed to ozone pollution. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pg2DSfuZDAk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Like Pavlov’s dogs, bees can be trained to respond to a dinner bell – or in their case, the scent of a flower.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We first tested the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/honeybee">honeybees</a> with scent blends replicating those observed at the plume centre when ozone levels were elevated. At a distance of six metres from the flower, 52% of bees recognised the scent. This fell to only 38% at a distance of 12 metres. </p>
<p>We then tested the response of honeybees to the more degraded plume edges. Only 32% of the bees responded at six metres, falling to just 10% at 12 metres. </p>
<p>These results help to explain the significant decline in the number and diversity of insect visits and pollination rates observed in our field trials. Put simply, ozone pollution limits the reach of chemical signals and changes their meaning, leaving insects confused.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two diagrams showing how ozone disrupts a flower's scent." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547727/original/file-20230912-21-4ef5j9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ozone makes it difficult for insects to sniff out flowers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Langford</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this is unlikely to be the full story. Although we replicated the effects of ozone pollution on floral scents, we never exposed the bees directly to ozone. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722014358">Separate research</a> carried out in France suggests that direct exposure to ozone might also impair the ability of bees to detect floral scents. </p>
<p>The full extent to which air pollution is impacting the insects we all depend on is only just beginning to be revealed. So, the next time you lift your newspaper to swat a bug, take a second and ask yourself – don’t they have it tough enough already?</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Langford receives funding from the Natural Environmental Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Ryalls has received funding from The Leverhulme Trust and The Royal Society to conduct research on this topic.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robbie Girling has received funding to conduct research on this topic from the Natural Environment Research Council, the Leverhulme Trust and the Gerald Kerkut Charitable Trust. </span></em></p>We’re making life tough for insects – and not just by swatting them away with a newspaper.Ben Langford, Senior Atmospheric Scientist, UK Centre for Ecology & HydrologyJames Ryalls, Research Fellow in the School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of ReadingRobbie Girling, Director of the Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114812023-09-18T12:20:18Z2023-09-18T12:20:18ZDesert dust storms carry human-made toxic pollutants, and the health risk extends indoors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547793/original/file-20230912-15-tvy18y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2995%2C1922&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A massive dust storm billows across the western desert of Iraq on April 26, 2005.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-picture-released-by-the-u-s-marine-corps-a-dust-news-photo/52726143">Shannon Arledge/USMC via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans have contended with dust storms for thousands of years, ever since early civilizations appeared in the Middle East and North Africa. But modern desert dust storms are different from their preindustrial counterparts.</p>
<p>Around the world, deserts now increasingly border built structures, including urban dwellings, manufacturing, transportation hubs, sewage treatment and landfills. As a result, desert dust lifts a growing load of <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/0b891a90-3047-5115-8a3f-2c724b6bec36">airborne pollutants</a> and transports these substances over long distances. </p>
<p>This is happening throughout the Global Dust Belt, an arid to semiarid region that stretches from western China through Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Similar storms occur in the U.S. Southwest and central Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map showing a concentration of dust storms in the Middle East and North Africa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544747/original/file-20230825-29-vmv4js.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global pattern of dust frequency estimated from weather records, 1974-2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50836">Shao et al., 2013</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To our thinking, modern desert dust storms have been overlooked as a public health crisis. Elevated exposure to these events is likely to contribute to rising respiratory and other diseases, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/all.15392">asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</a>. We are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=KmHgnMkAAAAJ&hl=en">environmental</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sCeK0g8AAAAJ&hl=en">researchers</a> whose work shows a need for better public health practices to protect people from dust storm pollutants. </p>
<h2>Massive, fast-moving dust storms</h2>
<p>To appreciate the scale of the threat, consider the Arabian Peninsula, where asthma rates have been the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/reveh-2017-0030">world’s highest for the past two decades</a>. </p>
<p>In spring 2011, one of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2020.100592">most severe desert dust storms in recent decades</a> swept across the Middle East at the peak of the dust storm season. Its plumes spread from the west coast of the Persian Gulf to the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea, covering northern Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait and western Iran. One quadrant of this large storm alone covered most of the Arabian Peninsula. </p>
<p>This storm reached vertically as high as 5.5 miles (9 kilometers) above the ground. Its wind speeds exceeded 45 mph (72 kilometers per hour) – higher than average wind speeds in the region. Dust particle concentrations peaked at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2020.100592">530,000 micrograms per cubic foot</a> (15,000 micrograms per cubic meter), blocking sunlight for days. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pD6jiuTpFc0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This satellite video shows a large dust storm heading southward over the Arabian Peninsula on March 25, 2011. The persistent dark magenta hue of the leading dust front indicates its exceptionally high dust density.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One study found that a large proportion of individuals exposed to sandstorms <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.12669/pjms.292.3065">had symptoms</a> that included increased cough, runny nose, wheezing, acute asthmatic attack, eye irritation and redness, headache, sleep disturbance and psychological disturbances. Another study reported that increased dust storm exposure in western Iran led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.11.005">increases in hospital admissions</a> for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and more deaths from respiratory causes. </p>
<h2>Needed: A climate + health framework</h2>
<p>Researchers study desert dust storms in a dozen different fields, each with its own terminology, expertise and body of knowledge. This work includes analyzing satellite images, creating simulation models for predicting dust particle transport, and identifying each dust storm’s particle content. So far, however, the health effects of desert dust storms and their changing particle content have gotten scant attention.</p>
<p>As we discussed in a recent review article, studies have found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11287-6">pollutants in dust storms</a> that include bioreactive metals such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.116190">copper, chromium, nickel, lead and zinc</a>, as well as pesticides, herbicides, radioactive particulates and aerosolized sewage. The extent to which desert dust storms transport a special class of pollution particles, those even smaller than one micron – or one millionth of a meter – is not yet clear.</p>
<p>This is the class of submicron pollutants, abbreviated as PM1.0, which includes degraded microplastics, metallic nanoparticles, diesel exhaust and fine particles from degraded tires. Of all particulate matter classes, submicron particles are the <a href="https://airquality.gsfc.nasa.gov/health#">most harmful to human health</a> because when once inhaled, they enter the bloodstream, affecting every organ in the body, and even crossing the blood-brain barrier.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CMbrgymjOuh/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Public health recommendations</h2>
<p>We offer several practices here that we believe would help public health agencies successfully tackle the problem of polluted dust storms.</p>
<p>1: Identify particle content for each dust storm. </p>
<p>Existing technology now makes it possible to identify the types of particles being carried in any particular storm. Scientists can already conduct particle trajectory analysis to trace dust and pollutant particles <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.025">back to their sources</a>. </p>
<p>Knowing the particle content of dust storms can identify ways to make these storms less hazardous, whether capping sewage systems or securing waste at ports to prevent materials from being picked up by dust storms. </p>
<p>2: Archive samples from each desert dust storm.</p>
<p>One physical catalog for dust storm particles already exists at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1462-2920.2007.01461.x">19th-century dust storm archive</a> kept by the Natural History Museum at Humboldt University in Berlin. We see a need for a modern archive that collects digital data on particle types, particle trajectory analysis, spatial coordinates and meteorological data. </p>
<p>Keeping both physical samples and data from each dust storm would allow for a comparative understanding of how and why particle content is changing. This has been done to analyze particle content related to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12091526">military activity in the Middle East</a>.</p>
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<p>3: Protect indoor and closed spaces from the smaller dust storm particles. </p>
<p>During a major dust storm, high-speed winds blow fine particles around windows and doors for days. The particles most likely to penetrate indoors include the smallest, most harmful submicron class. </p>
<p>Typically, a gray, fluffy residue appears inside buildings after a dust storm, but data are not available on the identity and size of these particles. Our concern is that submicron pollutant particles are highly concentrated in this residue.</p>
<p>For a safe cleanup, we recommend that people should avoid dry vacuuming, which lofts particles back into the air. Instead, it is better to remove residues with water and a wet mop. We also recommend wearing face masks indoors before, during and after dust storms, since particulate concentrations start to rise ahead of the main storm. In our view, people should treat dust storm residue inside built structures as hazardous material until studies show otherwise. </p>
<p>4: Educate biomedical and meteorological experts together.</p>
<p>The rising human-made content of desert dust storms, particularly fine and ultrafine submicron particles, is a neglected public health concern that we believe calls for combined medical and meteorological expertise. </p>
<p>By educating biomedical and meteorological experts jointly about dust storms, public health agencies would have more complete strategies for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2275">how to best protect people</a>. It would be valuable to have teams of health and weather experts carry out joint analyses of dust storm exposure data, and then apply the best statistical methods to both civilian and military health records.</p>
<p>Climate change is making already-dry areas around the world <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-3/">more arid</a>. As deserts increasingly adjoin cities, industry and transportation corridors, desert dust storms will increasingly mirror human activity on land. These storms are becoming flying waste dumps, and we believe a public health perspective will help produce more effective responses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211481/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fatin Samara has received funding from the American University of Sharjah and the Sharjah Research Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Williams Bridgwater does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Desert dust storms are increasingly picking up materials like sewage, herbicides and other human-made waste and transporting them on tiny particles that are easy to inhale.Claire Williams Bridgwater, Research Professor in Environmental Science, American UniversityFatin Samara, Professor of Environmental Science, American University of SharjahLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129732023-09-07T04:24:00Z2023-09-07T04:24:00Z3,200 deaths a year: 1 of many reasons air pollution in Australia demands urgent national action<p>Australia is holding its collective breath ahead of a bushfire season that may bring a return of the smoke linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50545">400 deaths and 4,500 hospitalisations and emergency department visits</a> during the 2019–20 Black Summer fires.</p>
<p>Air pollution is the world’s single greatest environmental cause of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00090-0">preventable disease and premature death</a>. In Australia, it’s linked to <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/burden-of-disease/abds-2018-interactive-data-risk-factors/contents/air-pollution">more than 3,200 deaths</a> a year at an estimated cost of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010254">A$6.2 billion</a>.</p>
<p>These impacts are increasing due to climate change and an ageing population, among other factors. Scientists at the <a href="http://www.safeair.org.au/">Centre for Safe Air</a> (an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence) have launched <a href="https://safeair.org.au/safer-air-report-06sep2023/">a report</a> today on the many benefits of safer air for Australians, to mark the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.un.org/en/observances/clean-air-day">International Day of Clean Air</a>.</p>
<p>The report summarises the extensive evidence on the health impacts of air pollution for Australians. This pollution consists of both airborne particles (also called particulate matter) and gases such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide. The report also explains why co-ordinated national leadership is needed to make our air safer.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-most-national-limits-are-unsafe-for-human-health-new-who-guidelines-168509">Air pollution: most national limits are unsafe for human health – new WHO guidelines</a>
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<h2>Why invest in clean air?</h2>
<p>Here are ten reasons Australia should invest in safer air.</p>
<p><strong>1. Air pollution increases non-communicable diseases</strong></p>
<p>Heart disease, stroke, dementia, type 2 diabetes, lung diseases and cancer are all leading causes of illness and death for Australians. Air pollution <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2018.10.041">increases the risk</a> of all these conditions in the community. </p>
<p><strong>2. Air pollution makes communicable diseases worse</strong></p>
<p>Air pollution increases the risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.4046/trd.2022.0116">respiratory infections</a> such as influenza and COVID-19, and may increase their severity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-can-increase-the-risk-of-covid-infection-and-severe-disease-a-roundup-of-what-we-know-201813">Air pollution can increase the risk of COVID infection and severe disease – a roundup of what we know</a>
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<p><strong>3. Air quality affects our health throughout life</strong></p>
<p>Air pollution can affect the growth, development and overall <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/air-pollution-and-childrens-health">health of unborn babies</a>. Later in life it adds to the risk of developing non-communicable diseases.</p>
<p><strong>4. It adds to health inequities</strong></p>
<p>Action on air pollution represents a powerful opportunity to reduce health inequities in Australia. Some of the most vulnerable people in our society are at higher risk of <a href="https://safeair.org.au/safer-air-report-06sep2023/">worse health outcomes</a> from air pollution exposure. They include older adults, pregnant people and unborn babies, children, people with pre-existing chronic conditions, socially disadvantaged populations and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Lessening air pollution reduces inequity.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How air pollution affects your body.</span></figcaption>
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<p><strong>5. Climate change and pollution make each other worse</strong></p>
<p>Climate change is leading to <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/html-report/chapter-14">more frequent and severe bushfires</a>. In turn, severe bushfires are <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/ten-impacts-australian-bushfires">influencing the global climate</a> and weather systems. Reducing air pollution is vital for mitigating climate change because they share common drivers such as fuel combustion.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-and-dirty-air-are-also-climate-change-problems-solutions-for-a-world-on-fire-207676">Wildfire smoke and dirty air are also climate change problems: Solutions for a world on fire</a>
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<p><strong>6. Clean-air policies have many co-benefits</strong></p>
<p>Policies to reduce air pollution from burning fossil fuels have many health, environmental and social benefits. Measures range from decarbonising our energy and transport systems, greening our cities and improving urban and housing design to bushfire prevention strategies. Reducing air pollution improves social, environmental and economic wellbeing.</p>
<p><strong>7. The impacts are increasing</strong></p>
<p>Population growth and ageing, urbanisation and increasing transport and energy demands add to the risks for air quality, climate change and population health. This is why timely interventions are needed.</p>
<p><strong>8. Economic costs are high and underestimated</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010254">Australian estimates</a> to date have placed annual mortality costs of fine particulate matter (<a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/environmental-information/air-quality/pm25-particles-in-the-air">PM2.5</a>) air pollution at A$6.2 billion. However, existing economic analyses of air pollution largely fail to account for the costs of other air pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide from vehicle traffic, and non-health costs like labour, productivity, welfare and other societal impacts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-quality-near-busy-australian-roads-up-to-10-times-worse-than-official-figures-137227">Air quality near busy Australian roads up to 10 times worse than official figures</a>
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<p><strong>9. Return on investment is high</strong></p>
<p>Every dollar spent generates returns in the forms of lower health costs, healthier people and longer lives. Soon-to-be-published research at the Centre for Safe Air has found reducing the average population exposure to fine airborne particles (<a href="https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/for-community/environmental-information/air-quality/pm25-particles-in-the-air">PM2.5</a>) by a modest and highly achievable 5% could save more than 360 lives and A$1.6 billion a year.</p>
<p><strong>10. Small improvements produce large gains</strong></p>
<p>The rate of increase of many air-pollution-related health outcomes is steeper at lower concentrations, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6">tapering off</a> at higher levels of pollution. For Australia, this means any small improvements, even to levels below current national air quality standards, will deliver measurable health and economic benefits.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-the-outcry-if-factories-killed-as-many-people-as-wood-heaters-207411">Imagine the outcry if factories killed as many people as wood heaters</a>
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<h2>All of us have a right to clean air</h2>
<p>Air pollution and its adverse health effects are linked to how we generate energy, how we heat our homes, our transport systems and our climate. No single policy will adequately tackle the problem of air pollution. Therefore, effective policy measures and regulation must take into account the diverse sources, settings and populations that are more at risk from air pollution.</p>
<p>Currently, responsibility for air pollution policy falls between the health and environment portfolios. Policies are often needed in the environment, planning and transport sectors where health expertise and input are limited, whereas air pollution impacts and public health responses reside in the health sector. </p>
<p>Safe air is a shared resource and a fundamental human right. Air pollution affects everyone - co-ordinated national leadership on safe air will benefit all Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bin Jalaludin receives funding from the NHMRC and the ARC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Dodd and Deren Pillay do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Reducing air pollution is one of the best investments for Australians’ health, the environment, the economy and social equity. But achieving cleaner air requires a new approach from government.Deren Pillay, Researcher and Advanced Trainee in Public Health Medicine, Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of TasmaniaBill Dodd, Knowledge Broker, Centre for Safe Air (NHMRC CRE), and Adjunct Researcher, Media School, University of TasmaniaBin Jalaludin, Conjoint Professor, School of Population Health, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102462023-09-01T12:43:36Z2023-09-01T12:43:36ZNorth America’s summer of wildfire smoke: 2023 was only the beginning<p>Canada’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/yellowknife-and-kelowna-wildfires-burn-in-what-is-already-canadas-worst-season-on-record-211817">seemingly endless wildfires</a> in 2023 introduced millions of people across North America to the health hazards of wildfire smoke. While Western states have contended with smoky fire seasons for years, the air quality alerts across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast this summer reached <a href="https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-daily-air-quality-tracker">levels never seen there before</a>.</p>
<p>The smoke left the air so unhealthy in Philadelphia on June 7, 2023, that the Phillies-Detroit Tigers Major League Baseball <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sports/mlb-wnba-nwsl-games-postponed-due-poor-air-quality-us-2023-06-07/">game was postponed</a>. That same week, New York City residents hunkered down indoors for several days as a smoky haze hung over the city, turning the skies orange and exposing millions of people to the worst air quality in the world.</p>
<p>Smoke also drifted into the Midwest, triggering the highest air quality index levels in the Chicago area in at least 24 years, forcing the cancellation of numerous summer activities and leaving residents with raspy voices. In several states, people woke up to smoky skies day after day.</p>
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<img alt="A young man rides a rental bike along Chicago's Lake Michigan shore with smoke obscuring the view of the city skyline in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545610/original/file-20230830-29-xqvrh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Chicago was under air quality alerts several times during the summer of 2023 as wildfire smoke blew in from Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wildfire-smoke-clouds-the-skyline-on-june-28-2023-in-news-photo/1503491525">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The pressing question on many people’s minds: “Is this the new normal?” From <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=CKRhPGIAAAAJ&hl=en">our perspective as</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MHbvpzAAAAAJ&hl=en">air quality</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QdkDnPgAAAAJ&hl=en">scientists</a>, we think the answer is likely “yes.”</p>
<h2>Global warming means more fires</h2>
<p>The wildfire smoke of 2023 highlights an emerging air quality trend. The U.S. had seen <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/particulate-matter-pm25-trends">decades of falling levels</a> of fine particulate matter pollution, PM2.5, thanks to environmental regulations and cleaner engines, factories and power plants. But wildfires’ contribution to air pollution is increasing again, resulting in flat or rising levels of air pollution in much of the country.</p>
<p>Climate models predicted this reality as global temperatures rise. Hotter, drier conditions, coupled with dry grasses and underbrush that accumulated over decades of fire suppression, have made large wildfires more common. Computer simulations of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112839109">future in a warming climate</a> show more smoky days, higher smoke concentrations, larger burned areas and higher emissions – which further <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2013-0041">fuel climate change</a>.</p>
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<p>While prescribed fire and forest thinning can help reduce the number and intensity of fire outbreaks, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.086">smoke exposure</a> is still likely to increase because of the increases in burned area anticipated as a result of large-scale shifts in temperature and moisture.</p>
<p>In short, people will need to learn to live with wildfire smoke. It won’t be every year, but we’re likely to see summers like 2023 more often.</p>
<p>Fortunately, there are several <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/wildfire-smoke-guide-publications/">tools and strategies for managing</a> a smokier future.</p>
<h2>Preparing for smoky days</h2>
<p>Managing the risk of wildfire smoke starts with making smart personal choices.</p>
<p>Think of smoke waves like heat waves: They’re easier to face if you’re prepared and know they’re coming. That means <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/07/best-air-quality-apps-wildfire-smoke/">paying attention to forecasts</a> and having face masks, air monitors and clean-air shelters available.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-can-harm-human-health-even-when-the-fire-is-burning-hundreds-of-miles-away-a-toxicologist-explains-why-206057">Inhaling PM2.5 and the chemicals</a> in wildfire smoke can exacerbate asthma, worsen existing respiratory and cardiac problems and leave people more susceptible to respiratory infection. People caring for individuals <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-and-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">sensitive to smoke</a>, such as young children <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-particularly-hard-on-older-adults-an-aging-population-and-climate-change-put-ever-more-people-at-risk-210049">and older adults</a>, will need to plan for their needs in particular.</p>
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<img alt="A baseball player standing beside the field adjusts a black mask over his face." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544875/original/file-20230826-29778-8y1qhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen wore a face mask to protect against smoke in the air during a Pirates-Padres game on June 29, 2023, in Pittsburgh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/andrew-mccutchen-of-the-pittsburgh-pirates-puts-on-a-mask-news-photo/1508118494">Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>To prepare, read up on the risks and warning signs from public health professionals. Living with wildfire smoke may mean using air filtration devices, wearing N95 or KN95 masks on bad air days, modifying outdoor commuting patterns and activity schedules and changing household ventilation choices.</p>
<h2>What schools and communities can do</h2>
<p>Living with smoke will also require changes to how schools, businesses, apartment buildings and government buildings operate.</p>
<p>Schools can start with <a href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/ep/documents/airqualityguidance.pdf">setting a threshold</a> for canceling outdoor activities and making sure staff are ready to meet the needs of kids with asthma.</p>
<p>Building managers may need to rethink air filtration and ventilation and deploy air quality sensors. Communities will also need contingency plans for festivals and recreation venues, as well as rules for business to protect outdoor workers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A school employee wearing a face mask and T-shirt with a big " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545608/original/file-20230830-15-p2h5n9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many schools installed better air filters and classroom air purifiers during spikes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Those measures may be necessary against smoky days in the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/eastern-h-s-custodian-raymond-woodfork-shows-tour-news-photo/1231802348">Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Decisions on how to deal with smoke can be complicated. For example, selecting an air purifier <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ina.13163">can be a daunting task</a>, with over 900 products on the market. The effectiveness of different smoke management interventions are not well known and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD013441.pub2">can vary</a> depending on small implementation details, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000482">how a mask fits</a> the wearer’s face, whether exterior doors and windows seal tightly and whether filters are installed properly and are replaced often enough.</p>
<h2>Improving smoke monitoring and forecasting</h2>
<p>The U.S. has an extensive air quality monitoring and forecasting system to help provide some early warning. It uses ground-based air quality monitors, satellite remote sensing systems to detect smoke and fires and <a href="https://fireaq.uiowa.edu">computer systems</a> that <a href="https://portal.airfire.org">tie observations together</a> with wind, <a href="https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/wxmaps/chem2d/?region=nam,">chemistry</a> and <a href="https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/airquality/?element=ozone01_bc&mapcenter=-96.00%2C40.00&mapzoom=5&subregion=CONUS&region=CONUS">weather</a>. These are supplemented by <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/news/highlights/continued-success-u.s.-interagency-wildland-fire-air-quality-response-program">expert guidance</a> from meteorologists.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of North America shows wildfire smoke from fires in Alberta and Ontario, Canada, detected strongly with poor air quality in the Great Lakes region, Northeast and Midwestern U.S." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke from wildfires in Canada was forecast across a large part of the U.S. on June 28, 2023. Dark purple dots indicate hazardous air quality; red is unhealthy; orange is unhealthy for sensitive groups; and yellow indicates moderate risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fire.airnow.gov/">AirNow.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, for average people trying to make decisions about the safety of outdoor activities, the current forecasting system is wanting. This is especially true when smoke blows in from fires far away, or when rapidly changing smoke emission rates and complex wind patterns lead to conflicting forecasts and advisories.</p>
<p>A few key improvements would go a long way for <a href="https://wpo.noaa.gov/improving-wildfire-prediction-with-convection-allowing-models/">practical decision making</a> around wildfire smoke, like whether to delay the start of soccer practice:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Knowledge of how fires evolve hour by hour can improve the smoke estimates going into the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071%2Fwf18204">forecast models</a>. </p></li>
<li><p>Providing smoke forecasts at neighborhood scale can better inform individuals and cities of pending risks. </p></li>
<li><p>More accurate 10-day forecasts would allow communities to plan. </p></li>
<li><p>Merging seasonal weather forecasts of precipitation, humidity and winds with satellite assessments of fuel conditions could enhance emergency planning for firefighters to help anticipate which regions and periods present the highest risks of fire and smoke.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544874/original/file-20230826-15-1jljmc.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1"><figcaption>Satellite data tracks black carbon from wildfire smoke moving into the U.S. Northeast, June 3-8, 2023. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151442/hazardous-air-chokes-northeastern-states">NASA Earth Observatory video by Lauren Dauphin</a></figcaption></figure>
<p>Maintaining a strong air quality monitoring network is also important. State and local government agencies have reduced the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-38.pdf">number of ground monitors by about 10%</a> from its peak in 2001. Smoke estimates from satellites and low-cost portable sensors can help, but they work best when they can be cross-calibrated to a well-maintained network of high-accuracy monitors.</p>
<h2>We still have a lot to learn</h2>
<p>More effective adaptations to smoke will require more research to better understand the factors that make some people <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.6b06200">more vulnerable to harm from smoke</a>, the effects of cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental stressors and smoke over the life span, and the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of adaptations. </p>
<p>For example, clean-air shelters – the equivalent to a cooling center during extreme heat – are gaining attention, but there is only limited guidance on what constitutes a clean-air shelter and where and when they would be used. A 2023 Government Accountability Office report <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-104723">called for better coordination</a> to help target resources where they can be most effective.</p>
<p>Living with smoke is emerging as a new reality. Next-generation tools need to be both clear and resilient to the compound hazards that develop when smoke <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-and-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">hits simultaneously with other challenges</a>, such as extreme heat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles O. Stanier receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Carmichael receives funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter S. Thorne receives funding from the U.S. National Institutes of Health and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. </span></em></p>Thick smoke pouring in from Canada’s wildfires canceled baseball games and pushed air quality in major US cities to the worst in the world.Charles O. Stanier, Professor of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of IowaGregory Carmichael, Professor of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of IowaPeter S. Thorne, University of Iowa Distinguished Chair, Professor of Environmental Health, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2096672023-08-29T12:34:31Z2023-08-29T12:34:31ZWhat can cities do to correct racism and help all communities live longer? It starts with city planning<p>The average life expectancy <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm">in the U.S. is 76.1 years</a>. But this range varies widely – a child raised in wealthy San Mateo County, California, <a href="https://www.rwjf.org/en/insights/our-research/interactives/whereyouliveaffectshowlongyoulive.html">can expect to live nearly 85 years</a>. A child raised in Fort Worth, Texas, could expect to <a href="https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/newsroom/articles/year-2019/life-expectancy-texas-zipcode.html">live about 66.7 years</a>. </p>
<p>Race, poverty, as well as related issues like the ability to find nearby <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1863">grocery stores</a> and <a href="https://www.nrpa.org/blog/understanding-equity-in-parks-and-recreation/">easily visit clean parks</a>, all influence health. </p>
<p>This means that a person’s ZIP code is often a better predictor of their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/life-expectancy-depend-on-zipcode-10-miles-difference-2018-10">life expectancy than their genetic code</a>. </p>
<p>The air people breathe, the streets they walk, and their general sense of safety and happiness are all shaped by city and town plans. </p>
<p>Making city and town plans more inclusive has been at the forefront of California politics since a 2016 state mandate required that local jurisdictions address what is often called <a href="https://calepa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/10/EnvJustice-Documents-2016yr-EJReport.pdf">“environmental justice.”</a> This term generally means that all people are treated equally when it comes to <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/environment/sb1000">environmental laws and policy</a>, including cities’ plans for where and how developers can build housing, businesses and parks.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tiWgmHQAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of human ecology</a> and urban design. Part of my research is focused on trying to answer a complex question about eliminating the health and life-expectancy gap people experience in the U.S.: What can cities and towns do – and what is actually working – to correct racist legacies and help people live longer lives?</p>
<h2>Brief history of environmental justice</h2>
<p>Environmental justice stems from a <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/environmental-justice-movement">1980s social movement</a> that protested toxic waste being dumped in predominantly Black neighborhoods in the South. </p>
<p>Long-term inequalities in public spending and design choices to concentrate lower-income housing near hazardous waste facilities have meant that children of color growing up in those neighborhoods near toxic waste sites disproportionately suffered from chronic health problems, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2011.300183">childhood cancer and asthma</a>.</p>
<p>There are some efforts underway to counter this trend. </p>
<p>The Biden administration, for example, convened an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/environmentaljustice/white-house-environmental-justice-advisory-council/">environmental justice advisory council</a> in 2021 to track local disparities in health, environmental and economic impacts. </p>
<p>But environmental justice progress ultimately depends on local work. </p>
<p>City and county plans and zoning codes determine where new housing will be developed, at what density, and where commercial or industrial properties are situated. Plans also direct public funding for new parks and environmental cleanups. </p>
<p>Together, zoning and land-use plans set noise levels and air pollution limits.</p>
<p>It’s no coincidence that local jurisdictions place more low-income housing in the same places where they also tolerate higher <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/urban-noise-pollution-worst-poor-minority-neighborhoods-segregated-cities">levels of noise</a> <a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/racial-ethnic-minorities-low-income-groups-u-s-air-pollution/">and pollution</a>. </p>
<p>These same neighborhoods are <a href="https://nlihc.org/resource/racial-disparities-among-extremely-low-income-renters">often home to communities of color</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A 'for rent' sign for a 2 bedroom apartment is hung outside of a building on a quiet street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545087/original/file-20230828-19-t4tpb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign advertises apartments for rent in San Francisco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-is-posted-in-front-of-an-apartment-building-with-news-photo/1497264660?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>California’s housing policies</h2>
<p>Los Angeles, for example, has <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-03-la-region-residential-zoned-exclusionary.html">exclusionary zoning policies</a> that can make it harder for low-income people to purchase homes in particular neighborhoods. The zoning policies require the construction of single family homes with large yards in many neighborhoods. Low-income people often cannot afford such homes. </p>
<p>As a result of the zoning policies, nearly <a href="https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/will-californias-new-zoning-promote-racial-and-economic-equity-los-angeles">80% of apartment buildings with two to four units</a> are concentrated in low-income neighborhoods that are primarily inhabited by residents of color. </p>
<p>This is a <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/redlining#:%7E:text=Redlining%20can%20be%20defined%20as,on%20their%20race%20or%20ethnicity.">vestige of redlining</a>, a racist U.S. government policy that took root in the 1920s and 1930s. The policy made it difficult for people of color in certain areas to get mortgages, insurance loans and other financial services. </p>
<p>The zoning code concentrates poorer people into particular neighborhoods, which generally results in poorer health outcomes for residents, because these same neighborhoods do not receive proportionate funding for libraries, schools, parks, roads and other public projects, given their populations. </p>
<p><a href="https://plansearch.caes.ucdavis.edu/results/?query=environmental+justice">Seventeen of the 88 cities</a> within Los Angeles County have developed policies to address these disparities. For example, Inglewood’s 2020 plan adopts an inclusionary zoning policy to construct affordable housing in the same locations as market-rate housing. </p>
<p>Other places in California, like the the city of Richmond, have introduced <a href="https://www.ci.richmond.ca.us/2575/Health-in-All-Policies">a Health in All Policies approach to combat inequality</a>. This means that Richmond <a href="https://www.ci.richmond.ca.us/DocumentCenter/View/57209/HiAP-Report-2020">carefully considers health outcomes</a> for all zoning and planning decisions. </p>
<h2>Analyzing California city plans</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tiWgmHQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">I led a team</a> at the University of California, Davis <a href="https://regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/">Center for Regional Change</a> to find out how California communities address environmental justice. </p>
<p>We collected over 500 finalized California city plans from 2020 through 2022. Plans are required to be updated every three to eight years, but we found that some places are still running on plans drafted in the 1970s. </p>
<p>City plans are often hard to find on individual city and county websites – or they are buried in the shelves of municipal libraries.</p>
<p>Local communities spend years in public meetings finessing the details of city plans. Would it be better to provide cooling stations in every bus stop or prioritize building more apartment complexes?</p>
<p>Yet, communities often debate these points without knowing much about what other places have successfully executed when it comes to policy.</p>
<p>It is also often difficult to compare plans across different communities. Plans can be hundreds of pages long, deterring even the most ardent policy wonk. </p>
<p>To simplify, my team and I often search city plans for specific terms like “racism.” From there, we consider which policies are proposed, over what time frame, by which staff and with what funding to address this issue.</p>
<p>Luckily, computational methods can help us speed-read. To find out how many California cities are addressing environmental justice, we extracted the text from local plans, covering over 8 million words. Then, we created a search engine, <a href="https://plansearch.caes.ucdavis.edu/">PlanSearch</a>, which allows users to find out how many plans use a specific term and locate it within the plan’s maps, images and tables.</p>
<h2>Addressing environmental justice</h2>
<p>We found that only three of California’s 482 cities – Milpitas, San Luis Obispo and La Mesa – mention the term “<a href="https://plansearch.caes.ucdavis.edu/results/?query=racism">racism</a>” in their city plans.</p>
<p>By comparison, 360 cities’ plans mention the term “golf.”</p>
<p>I think that actively planning for golf more often than the problems of racism, toxic exposure or segregation reveals just how much more work there is to do in California and elsewhere. </p>
<p>Of course, including the exact term “racism” in city plans is not the only way to address underlying issues. We also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X21995890">searched for synonyms</a>, like segregation, that address environmental justice and anti-racism. </p>
<p>Through this, we uncovered the various ways that some California cities addressed environmental justice.</p>
<p>In just seven cities, including Coachella and Fresno, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2022.2118155">we identified a smorgasbord of 628</a> related policies.</p>
<p>National City, for example, focused on promoting healthy diets by placing new corner stores and grocery stores in lower-income neighborhoods. Cities located in more rural or agricultural areas – like Arvin and Woodland – plan for housing for farm workers near public transit to be developed over the next five to 10 years. </p>
<p>Ultimately, the answer to how cities can plan to be anti-racist, address health equity or promote environmental justice rests with concerned constituents and council members crafting a feasible plan of action. What is considered feasible often hinges on what has been piloted to success in similar communities. No matter the topic, reading and comparing plans helps give those concerned constituents somewhere to start the discussion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Brinkley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An analysis by scholars at the University of California, Davis showed that just a small number of cities in California actively consider racism when developing their plans.Catherine Brinkley, Associate Professor of Human Ecology, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114112023-08-27T13:32:37Z2023-08-27T13:32:37ZWildfire smoke is an increasing threat to Canadians’ health<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/wildfire-smoke-is-an-increasing-threat-to-canadians-health" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/air-pollutant-emissions.html">Air quality in Canada has improved</a> over the past several decades, and <a href="https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-09/soga-2020-report.pdf">Canada’s air is among the cleanest in the world</a>. But that progress is threatened by smoke from wildfires, which are becoming <a href="https://doi.org/10.4236/jep.2018.95028">more frequent and more intense with climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s 2023 wildfire season is <a href="https://ciffc.net/statistics">the worst on record</a>, with more than 5,800 reported fires and over 15 million hectares burned to date. </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-09/soga-2020-report.pdf">air pollution is a leading cause of death and disease</a>. One of the best indicators of health risk from air pollution is the concentration of very small particles called PM2.5 (which stands for particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometres). </p>
<p>PM2.5 particles can deposit deep in the lungs and long-term exposure can <a href="https://www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-09/soga-2020-report.pdf">cause a wide range of health effects including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, diabetes, lung cancer and pregnancy complications</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo3381">Health effects can occur even at low concentrations</a>, including those below current <a href="https://ccme.ca/en/air-quality-report#slide-7">Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards</a>.</p>
<p>Wildfires produce enormous quantities of PM2.5 and several other hazardous pollutants. Wildfire smoke can travel long distances, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/us/new-york-air-pollution-canada-wildfires-climate/index.html">exposing large populations — both close to and far away from fires — to very high concentrations of pollution</a>. </p>
<h2>The health impact of wildfire smoke</h2>
<p>The pollution mixture and chemical composition of wildfire smoke is often different from the pollution emitted by other sources, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300">these differences may influence toxicity</a>. The toxicity of wildfire smoke also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2200">depends on the type of vegetation and burning conditions</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-023-00272-9">may change as the smoke “ages” in the atmosphere</a>. This underscores the need to distinguish the health impacts of wildfire smoke from the impacts of other pollution sources. </p>
<p>Evidence linking wildfire smoke with adverse health effects has been accumulating for years and the notion that wildfire smoke is “natural,” and therefore less harmful than other types of air pollution, is not supported by the evidence. </p>
<p>Most studies have evaluated the relationships between daily changes in smoke levels and indicators of health such as emergency department visits, hospital admissions or deaths. </p>
<p>There is strong evidence that these “acute” exposures to wildfire smoke <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409277">increase the risk of respiratory illness and death</a>, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12989-020-00394-8">evidence of effects on the cardiovascular system</a> is also growing. Older adults, people living in low-income areas, and those with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease and other chronic conditions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsr2028985">are most susceptible</a>. </p>
<p>The health effects of wildfire smoke likely extend beyond the lungs and heart. Recent studies indicate that exposure during pregnancy may increase the risks of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111872">preterm birth</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-00267-4">decreased birth weight</a>. Smoke may also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10498">reduce attention measured on cognitive tests</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300">increase dementia risk</a>. </p>
<p>More studies are needed, but these effects could have important implications for health during vulnerable stages of life. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121041">Much less is known about the impacts of exposure to wildfire smoke over longer durations or from multiple episodes</a>. As more Canadians are exposed to smoke, and as the duration of the forest fire season increases, it will be critical to understand the long-term health impacts of repeated smoke exposure, especially among the most at-risk populations. </p>
<h2>Strategies to protect health</h2>
<p>Unlike <a href="https://doi.org/10.5772/9751">anthropogenic sources</a> of air pollution, emissions of wildfire smoke cannot be readily controlled at the source. But there are strategies that individuals and communities can use to reduce exposure and health risks. </p>
<p>Before fires begin, <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/publications/wildfire-smoke-guide/wildfire-smoke-a-guide-for-public-health-officials/">those with chronic conditions can discuss strategies for managing their health with their health-care providers, and ensure access to necessary medications</a>. During smoke events, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104447">staying indoors can be beneficial</a> because buildings reduce exposure to outdoor-generated pollution when windows and doors are closed. </p>
<p>Correctly sized portable HEPA filter air cleaners can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.11.058">reduce indoor PM2.5 by as much as 80 per cent</a>. And well-fitting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-020-00296-z">N95 respirators (or comparable respirators designed and certified for occupational use) can reduce PM2.5 exposure</a> when outdoors or in transit. The <a href="https://weather.gc.ca/airquality/pages/index_e.html">Air Quality Health Index</a> and <a href="https://weather.gc.ca/firework/">smoke forecasts</a> can help Canadians decide when these strategies are needed.</p>
<p>These strategies also have limitations. For example, the recommendation to stay indoors assumes that individuals have stable and safe housing. It is also complicated by heat, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/ee9.0000000000000189">a major threat to health</a> that may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.202204-0657oc">amplify the effects of PM2.5</a>. </p>
<p>Portable air filters are prohibitively expensive for some families, they do not remove the gases found in wildfire smoke, and they will be less effective for those who spend time in other locations, such as outdoor workers. High quality respirators may be unavailable in some communities, may cause discomfort and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-020-00296-z">a good facial fit will be impossible for many children and some adults</a>. </p>
<p>Government and public health agencies can help to offset some of these limitations and ensure more equal protection from smoke by providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.773428">accessible and clear messages to the public</a> and <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/publications/wildfire-smoke-guide/wildfire-smoke-a-guide-for-public-health-officials/">establishing clean air shelters in libraries, schools and other public buildings</a>. </p>
<p>Multiple overlapping strategies are needed to mitigate the health impacts of Canada’s worsening wildfires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Allen has used portable air cleaners purchased at a discounted rate from Woongjin-Coway in his research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Cleland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The notion that wildfire smoke is ‘natural,’ and therefore less harmful than other types of air pollution, is not supported by the evidence. Wildfire smoke has been linked to adverse health effects.Ryan W. Allen, Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityStephanie Cleland, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112492023-08-10T14:03:22Z2023-08-10T14:03:22ZAir pollution linked with global rise in antibiotic resistance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542157/original/file-20230810-27-qfmzoe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5377%2C3229&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Air pollution is linked with many health problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vehicles-people-moving-streets-amidst-heavy-780429076">Saurav022/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Antibiotic resistance is a growing threat to global health. In 2019, it caused over <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02724-0/fulltext">1.27 million deaths worldwide</a> – and it’s projected that antimicrobial resistance (which includes bacterial resistance to antibiotics) may contribute to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5127510/">ten million deaths</a> per year by 2050.</p>
<p>Antibiotics are used to treat bacterial infections such as urinary tract infections and pneumonia. But their <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antibiotic-resistance">misuse and overuse</a> has contributed to the emergence of bacteria which harbour genes that enable them to withstand the killing power of antibiotics. This results in infections that are much harder to treat. </p>
<p>Antibiotic resistance mainly spreads to humans through <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/challenges/antibiotic-resistance.html">contaminated food or water</a>. But a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2823%2900135-3">recent study</a> suggests this isn’t the only way resistant bacteria can spread. According to researchers from China and the UK, air pollution may also be spreading antibiotic resistance.</p>
<p>This is the first study to comprehensively estimate the link between increased antibiotic resistance and air pollution globally. </p>
<h2>The burden of air pollution</h2>
<p>The review analysed the findings of previous studies that looked at patterns of the airborne spread of antibiotic resistance over nearly two decades. They looked at 12 research studies conducted across 116 countries – including the UK, US, China, India and Australia. These studies estimated the emergence of antibiotic resistant bacteria or genes in the atmosphere.</p>
<p>The study looked specifically at the most dangerous type of air pollution – <a href="https://www.indoorairhygiene.org/pm2-5-explained/">PM2.5</a>. This is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 micrometres – about 3% the diameter of a strand of human hair. PM2.5 cannot be seen by the naked eye and can easily be inhaled.</p>
<p>The study found that antibiotic resistance rose alongside increasing PM2.5 concentrations in the air. Every 10% rise in the concentration of PM2.5 was linked with a 1.1% global increase in antibiotic resistance and 43,654 deaths from antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections. </p>
<p>The study reported that the highest levels of antibiotic resistance were seen in north Africa and west Asia. These areas also had the most severe PM2.5 pollution. In comparison, Europe and North America – which had the lowest average levels of PM2.5 pollution – also had lower levels of antibiotic resistance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bottle of polymixin antibiotics." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542159/original/file-20230810-19-beo9f2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Polymixins are the last resort antibiotic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/active-substance-polymyxin-b-sulfate-antibiotic-2319447537">luchschenF/ Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The study also reported that even just a 1% increase in PM2.5 across all regions was associated with an increase in <em>Klebsiella pneumoniae</em> resistance to multiple antibiotics – including <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34475315/#:%7E:text=Polymyxins%2C%20the%20cationic%20lipopeptide%20antibiotics,effect%20against%20Gram%2Dnegative%20bacteria">polymyxins</a>, which are the last resort of antibiotics. This bacterium typically spreads in hospitals and can cause pneumonia, meningitis and urinary tract infections. </p>
<p>Although <em>Klebsiella</em> is not spread via the air, this suggests that air pollution may also make it easier for resistant bacteria to thrive and spread <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/hai/organisms/klebsiella/klebsiella.html#:%7E:text=In%20healthcare%20settings%2C%20Klebsiella%20bacteria%20can%20be%20spread,The%20bacteria%20are%20not%20spread%20through%20the%20air">in the environment</a>.</p>
<p>The study shows there’s a significant relationship between air pollution and antibiotic resistance. Although the authors didn’t show evidence of causation between the two factors, they did find antibiotic resistance genes in the DNA of bacteria sequenced from air samples. This indicates that PM2.5 could facilitate the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria and genes via the air.</p>
<h2>Spread of resistance</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first study to show a link between air pollution and antibiotic resistance.</p>
<p>Air pollution has also been shown to be a risk factor for tuberculosis caused by the bacterium <em><a href="https://academic.oup.com/femsre/article/41/3/354/3089982">Mycobacterium tuberculosis</a></em>. This bacterium has developed resistance to multiple antibiotics. </p>
<p>A study in Hong Kong also revealed an association between outdoor <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27595179/">exposure to PM2.5 and tuberculosis</a>. The study found an increase in PM2.5 concentrations during the winter was associated with a 3% increase in the number of tuberculosis cases the following spring and summer.</p>
<p>However, it’s still unclear what underlying mechanisms may allow antibiotic resistance to spread in air pollution. It will be important for future studies to investigate this.</p>
<p>We do know from this study and others that PM2.5 can harbour antibiotic resistant bacteria or genes that can enter the human body through the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412019339625#:%7E:text=However%2C%20in%20addition%20to%20chemical%20properties%2C%20biological%20components,respiratory%20system%2C%20causing%20lung%20damage%20and%20respiratory%20infections">respiratory system</a> when <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2019.00054/full">we breathe</a>. </p>
<p>We also know from previous studies that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231016303855">antibiotic resistant bacteria</a> and their genes can be transmitted from one person to another through the air via respiratory droplets. Sneezing, coughing and even talking can all emit respiratory droplets. It’s also possible that a person who has inhaled antibiotic resistant bacteria from air pollution could then pass these on to another person when they cough or sneeze.</p>
<p>Environmental changes caused by air pollution (such as increased temperature and humidity) may also make it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7189961/#:%7E:text=The%20relative%20humidity%20or%20relative%20water%20content%20of,viable%20longer%20in%20association%20with%20high%20relative%20humidity">easier for resistant bacteria to thrive</a>. But again, it will be important for researchers to conduct studies looking into whether this is the case.</p>
<p>It will also be important for researchers to investigate the role of other factors (other than PM2.5) that can contribute to antibiotic resistance. For example, exposure to pollutants, the foods we eat, the use of antibiotics for animals and environmental disasters. </p>
<p>While we may not know exactly how air pollution helps spread antibiotic resistance, the link between the two is clear. Air pollution is also associated with a range of other health conditions – including <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-research/air-pollution-and-cardiovascular-disease-basics#:%7E:text=Research%20by%20EPA%20and%20others,and%20decreases%20in%20life%20expectancy">cardiovascular disease</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9001082/">asthma</a>, poorer <a href="https://jtd.amegroups.org/article/view/6353/html#:%7E:text=They%20concluded%20that%20the%20overall,occupation%20and%20other%20risk%20factors">lung function</a> and greater <a href="https://www.ochsnerjournal.org/content/19/1/4">risk of depression</a>. </p>
<p>Given the many harms air pollution already has to our health, this study only further strengthens arguments to urgently <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health#:%7E:text=Policies%20and%20investments%20supporting%20cleaner%20transport%2C%20energy%20efficient,greatly%20reduce%20ambient%20air%20pollution%20in%20some%20regions">improve air quality</a> and reduce pollution globally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manal Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Antibiotic resistance can affect anyone of any age.Manal Mohammed, Senior Lecturer, Medical Microbiology, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2101702023-08-09T12:32:17Z2023-08-09T12:32:17ZAI can help forecast air quality, but freak events like 2023’s summer of wildfire smoke require traditional methods too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541336/original/file-20230805-83673-xiqg41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3494%2C2331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thick smoke rolling in from Canada's 2023 wildfires was a wakeup call for several cities.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wear-masks-as-they-wait-for-the-tramway-to-roosevelt-news-photo/1258511415">Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildfire smoke from <a href="https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1685583683707682816">Canada’s extreme fire season</a> has left a lot of people thinking about air quality and wondering what to expect in the days ahead.</p>
<p>All air contains gaseous compounds and small particles. But as air quality gets worse, these gases and particles can <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-and-air-pollution-can-be-deadly-with-the-health-risk-together-worse-than-either-alone-187422">trigger asthma</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-can-harm-human-health-even-when-the-fire-is-burning-hundreds-of-miles-away-a-toxicologist-explains-why-206057">exacerbate heart and respiratory problems</a> as they enter the nose, throat and lungs and even circulate in the bloodstream. When wildfire smoke turned New York City’s skies orange in early June 2023, <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-hospitals-saw-twice-as-many-asthma-er-visits-as-bad-air-blanketed-city">emergency room visits</a> for asthma doubled.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/">most cities</a>, it’s easy to find a daily <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/outdoors/air-quality-index">air quality index score</a> that tells you when the air is considered unhealthy or even hazardous. However, predicting air quality in the days ahead isn’t so simple.</p>
<p>I work on air quality forecasting as a <a href="https://cee.utk.edu/people/joshua-s-fu/">professor of civil and environmental engineering</a>. Artificial intelligence has improved these forecasts, but research shows it’s much more useful when paired with traditional techniques. Here’s why:</p>
<h2>How scientists predict air quality</h2>
<p>To predict air quality in the near future – a few days ahead or longer – scientists generally rely on two <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/using-air-quality-index/#forecasts">main methods</a>: a <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/aq-forecasting-guidance-1016.pdf">chemical transport model</a> or a machine-learning model. These two models generate results in totally different ways.</p>
<p>Chemical transport models use lots of known chemical and physical formulas to calculate the presence and production of air pollutants. They use data from emissions inventories reported by local agencies that list pollutants from known sources, such as wildfires, traffic <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/2020-nei-supporting-data-and-summaries">or factories</a>, and data from meteorology that provides atmospheric information, such as wind, precipitation, temperature and solar radiation.</p>
<p>These models simulate the flow and chemical reactions of the air pollutants. However, their simulations involve multiple variables with huge uncertainties. Cloudiness, for example, changes the incoming solar radiation and thus the photochemistry. This can make the results less accurate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows many yellow dots through the Midwest. in particular, where wildfire smoke has been blowing in from Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541950/original/file-20230809-15-9ddhgg.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The EPA’s AirNow air pollution forecasts use machine learning. During wildfire events, a smoke-transport and dispersion model helps to simulate the spread of smoke plumes. This map is the forecast for Aug. 9, 2023. Yellow indicates moderate risk; orange indicates unhealthy air for sensitive groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/index.html">AirNow.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Machine-learning models instead learn patterns over time from historical data to predict future air quality for any given region, and then apply that knowledge to current conditions to predict the future. </p>
<p>The downside of machine-learning models is that they do not consider any chemical and physical mechanisms, as chemical transport models do. Also, the accuracy of machine-learning projections under extreme conditions, such as heat waves or wildfire events, can be off if the models weren’t trained on such data. So, while machine-learning models can show where and when high pollution levels are most likely, such as during rush hour near freeways, they generally cannot deal with more random events, like wildfire smoke blowing in from Canada. </p>
<h2>Which is better?</h2>
<p>Scientists have determined that neither model is accurate enough on its own, but using the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.118961">best attributes of both</a> models together <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.107969">can help better predict the quality</a> of the air we breathe. </p>
<p>This combined method, known as the machine-learning – measurement model fusion, or ML-MMF, has the ability to provide science-based predictions with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.107969">more than 90% accuracy</a>. It is based on known physical and chemical mechanisms and can simulate the whole process, from the air pollution source to your nose. Adding satellite data can help them inform the public on both air quality safety levels and the direction pollutants are traveling with greater accuracy. </p>
<p>We recently <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.107969">compared predictions from all three models</a> with actual pollution measurements. The results were striking: The combined model was 66% more accurate than the chemical transport model and 12% more accurate than the machine-learning model alone.</p>
<p>The chemical transport model is still the most common method used today to predict air quality, but applications with machine-learning models are becoming more popular. The regular <a href="https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/index.html">forecasting method</a> used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/">AirNow.gov</a> relies on machine learning. The site also compiles air quality forecast results from state and local agencies, most of which use <a href="https://www.epa.gov/cmaq">chemical transport</a> <a href="https://www.camx.com/">models</a>.</p>
<p>As information sources become more reliable, the combined models will become more accurate ways to forecast hazardous air quality, particularly during unpredictable events like wildfire smoke.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua S. Fu received funding from U. S. EPA for wildfire and human health studies. </span></em></p>Air quality forecasting is getting better, thanks in part to AI. That’s good, given the health impact of air pollution. An environmental engineer explains how systems warn of incoming smog or smoke.Joshua S. Fu, Chancellor's Professor in Engineering, Climate Change and Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083452023-07-16T11:56:56Z2023-07-16T11:56:56ZPollution timebombs: Contaminated wetlands are ticking towards ignition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534433/original/file-20230627-29982-kxs94r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=820%2C20%2C3780%2C1669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flaming peatland fire in Alberta, Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wetlands across the globe have long served as natural repositories for humanity’s toxic legacy, absorbing and retaining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.03.004">hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of pollution</a>. </p>
<p>These swampy vaults have quietly been trapping air and water pollution for thousands of years, protecting the world from some of the worst effects of lead, mercury, copper, nickel and other poisonous materials. </p>
<p>Now, however, a combination of human disruptions and ever increasing wildfires threaten to open these vaults, unleashing their long dormant toxic contents upon the world. </p>
<h2>Threats to releasing toxic legacies</h2>
<p>The soil in many wetlands is composed of dead and decaying vegetation known as peat. Peat accumulates because perpetually sopping wetland conditions prevent the complete decomposition of dead vegetation. As these deposits accumulate, they form peatlands. </p>
<p>For centuries, peat has been drained, dried and extracted for heating fuel where wood is scarce. Though humans have long burned bricks of peat in their homes, climate change and wetland draining are drying entire wetlands, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01657-w">transforming them into perfect fuel for huge smoky wildfires</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stacks of dried peat logs to be used for warmth and cooking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peat logs have long been used for warmth and cooking in communities across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Colin McCarter)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Centuries of fallout from industrial processes such as smelting has deposited toxic metals in wetlands hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from their point of origin. Human and industrial wastewater has, in places, added to this burden. </p>
<p>Wetlands have absorbed and stored these contaminants, holding them back from vulnerable aquatic ecosystems and saving humans from ingesting them. </p>
<p>Peat has a tremendous ability to capture and retain toxic metals by binding the metals to the peat itself through a process called adsorption. Once bound, the toxic metals are immobilized and pose little threat to the surrounding environment unless the peatland is disturbed, like from a wildfire.</p>
<h2>Wetlands and fire</h2>
<p>Human activities such as road building and resource extraction have seriously disrupted wetland ecosystems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa136">leaving drained wetlands vulnerable to fire</a>, as Canadians saw in the catastrophic Fort McMurray, Alta., wildfire of 2016.</p>
<p>As climate change and human actions further degrade wetlands, the resulting wildfires threaten to return humanity’s toxic legacy. This cycle carries frightening implications for the health of people and the environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Copious amounts of smoke produced from a smouldering peat fire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire burns away the peat as the resulting smoke is carried on the breeze.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2015, Indonesia recorded about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html">35,000 excess deaths after a major peatland fire</a>. Meanwhile, Canada and the United States are far from immune from exposure to peat fire smoke. In early June 2023, cities as far away as Washington, D.C., and New York were blanketed in thick smoke from peat fires in northern Canada, which is home to many of the world’s peatlands.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate change is accelerating the drying of peatlands everywhere, turning their huge stores of carbon into a carbon burden. Furthermore, as concentrated pollutants build up in wetlands, the accumulation of toxic metals is killing plants that act as their natural lid, allowing moisture to escape and speeding the conversion of more wetlands to tinderboxes. </p>
<p>Once ignited, peatland fires are difficult to contain as they can smoulder for weeks, months or even years. They produce copious amounts of smoke and ash, filling the air with microscopic particles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smoke filled peatland forest from smouldering fires lurking just below the surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peatland fires can smoulder underground for months re-emerging under the right conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even without metal pollution, these airborne particles can cause severe illness and death. Making a bad situation worse, toxic metals once safely stored in wetlands bind to these airborne particles and spread everywhere.</p>
<h2>Restoring wetlands</h2>
<p>As with many global environmental issues, it is easy to feel helpless to control such a huge and complex problem. Fortunately, nature-based solutions can have a substantial positive impact on keeping this toxic legacy from being released. </p>
<p>We can restore drying or dried-out wetlands back to their original state as functional ecosystems through, at the most basic level, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">preventing them from draining down canals and other human infrastructure</a>. Indeed, even without further intervention, re-wetting wetlands can reduce their risk of wildfire ignition. However, restoration must be managed carefully, to avoid flushing toxic metals from wetlands into neighbouring streams, rivers and lakes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-in-smoke-human-activities-are-fuelling-wildfires-that-burn-essential-carbon-sequestering-peatlands-202816">Up in smoke: Human activities are fuelling wildfires that burn essential carbon-sequestering peatlands</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To preserve wetland plants and return ecosystem functionality without releasing the stored toxic legacy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">we need to bring back fire-resistant mosses such as <em>Sphagnum</em></a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106874">Recent research shows that old-fashioned peat “transplants” may be effective</a>, though new restoration techniques in contaminated wetlands need to be further developed and tested. </p>
<p>Although ecosystem restoration can be costly in terms of time and money, actively restoring wetlands appears to be our best chance to defuse the ticking time-bomb that our pollution vaults have become. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acddfc">Preventing a pollution explosion demands urgent global research, investment and action</a>. The cost of doing nothing will certainly be much greater.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin McCarter receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Nipissing University, and the Canada Research Chair program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Waddington receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Blazing Star Environmental, McMaster University, Ganawenim Meshkiki, and Henvey Inlet Wind LP.</span></em></p>Peatlands safely store hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of humanity’s toxic legacy but climate change and physical disturbances are putting these pollution vaults, and us, at risk.Colin McCarter, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Arts and Science, Nipissing UniversityMike Waddington, Professor, School of Earth, Environment & Society, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064322023-06-23T14:49:09Z2023-06-23T14:49:09ZAre low-traffic neighbourhoods greenwashing? Here’s what the evidence says<p>Since the pandemic, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/12/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-ltn-may-lead-people-drive-less-london">series of low-traffic neighbourhoods</a> (LTNs) have been installed across the UK. LTNs are designed to curtail car use in residential streets and promote active modes of travel such as walking, cycling and travelling by wheelchair. They aim to create a more pleasant environment for pedestrians and cyclists by using cameras, planting boxes or bollards to restrict motor vehicle traffic.</p>
<p>The initiative aims to address <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/egnmj/">three public health issues</a> directly associated with rampant car use in urban areas: air pollution, road deaths and physical inactivity. Human-made air pollution – which is worse in congested cities – is linked to between <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health/air-pollution-applying-all-our-health#:%7E:text=The%20annual%20mortality%20of%20human,and%2036%2C000%20deaths%20every%20year.">28,000 and 36,000 deaths</a> in the UK each year. </p>
<p>The concept of LTNs in the UK can be traced back to the 1970s when a <a href="http://hackneycyclist.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-history-behind-filtered.html">similar scheme</a> (although not referred to as an LTN at the time) was introduced in the London borough of Hackney. Many of the UK’s more recent LTNs are concentrated in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692321002477?via%3Dihub">deprived areas of London</a>, with low rates of car ownership. </p>
<p>By contrast, similar schemes have been more widely adopted <a href="https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/3000/3187">in the Netherlands</a>, where active travel has been separated from car traffic consistently since the 1970s.</p>
<p>But LTNs have become controversial in the UK. Critics have even gone as far as <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/low-traffic-zones-just-greenwashing-says-lobby-group-jvck33c69">accusing the government</a> of greenwashing. They <a href="https://freedomfordrivers.blog/2023/02/23/new-petition-remove-ltns-and-greenwash-traffic-schemes/">argue that</a> LTNs cause more congestion and air pollution on boundary roads (usually larger roads around the perimeter of an LTN), longer emergency response times and increased travel times for disabled people or carers. </p>
<p>Since most LTNs are relatively recent and have been predominantly installed in London, there is limited information on their long-term effects and impacts beyond the capital. </p>
<p>Yet the existing evidence still offers a clearer understanding of how LTNs can positively impact various aspects of urban life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A queue of traffic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533704/original/file-20230623-25-llyph0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Critics argue that LTNs cause congestion on surrounding roads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/blackfriars-london-uk-11th-june-2014-597895856">Lenscap Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fewer cars, more active travel</h2>
<p>Some studies suggest that LTNs are effective in reducing car usage. <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/75470-the-impact-of-2020-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-on-levels-of-car-van-driving-among-residents-findings-from-lambeth-london-uk">Recent research</a> on four LTNs in the south London borough of Lambeth that was co-authored by one of us (Jamie Furlong), found that the annual distance residents within these LTNs drove decreased by 6% compared to control areas.</p>
<p>This finding supports <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13Nsm_GFdH6CpIpPpOZ7hbhLZScgqCAP7ZGI0xi4qDqA/edit">previous research</a> commissioned by climate action charity, Possible, that examined traffic data from 46 LTNs across 11 London boroughs. The analysis revealed a substantial reduction in motor traffic within LTNs compared to the expected background changes. Importantly, there was no evidence of traffic being systematically displaced onto boundary roads. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4133090">separate study</a> by researchers from Imperial College London on three LTNs in the London borough of Islington showed notable improvements in air quality after their installation. On average, levels of nitrogen dioxide (a harmful car exhaust pollutant) decreased by 5.7% within the LTNs and 8.9% on boundary roads. </p>
<p>LTNs have demonstrated several other benefits beyond reduced car usage. In London, they have even been associated with decreased car ownership and <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/25633-impacts-of-2020-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-in-london-on-road-traffic-injuries">improved road safety</a>. Between 2015 and 2019, rates of car ownership in outer London LTNs <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/18200-the-impact-of-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-and-other-active-travel-interventions-on-vehicle-ownership-findings-from-the-outer-london-mini-holland-progr">reduced by 6%</a> relative to control areas.</p>
<p>Evidence on the shift to active travel prompted by LTNs is more limited. However, a <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/21390-the-impact-of-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-on-active-travel-car-use-and-perceptions-of-local-environment-during-the-covid-19-pandemic">study funded by Transport for London</a> on LTNs that pre-dated COVID in London’s Waltham Forest, found a 1-2 hour increase per person in weekly active travel compared to the control area. </p>
<h2>What about the concerns?</h2>
<p>One criticism of LTNs relates to the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/traffic-calming-zones-london-delay-fire-crews-xmplwxp38">potential delays</a> they can cause for emergency services. Videos have surfaced online showing fire engines and ambulances unable to get past bollards or planting boxes. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://findingspress.org/article/18198-the-impact-of-introducing-a-low-traffic-neighbourhood-on-fire-service-emergency-response-times-in-waltham-forest-london">only published academic study</a> on the topic, which examined the impact of LTNs on fire service emergency response times in Waltham Forest, found no negative effects. In fact, response times even improved slightly on some boundary roads. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A fire engine driving down a road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533694/original/file-20230623-29-lpm05q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concerns have been raised about the delays LTNs cause to emergency services.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-september-30-2019-emergency-1519146149">olesea vetrila/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Learning from Barcelona</h2>
<p>How residents feel about LTNs and their streets is crucial to the success of these schemes. In both <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/london-council-scraps-seven-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-after-public-backlash/">Ealing</a> (a district of west London) and <a href="https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/23600038.low-traffic-neighbourhood-westy-will-removed/">Warrington</a> (a town in northern England), councils removed LTNs after the objection of residents.</p>
<p>The fact that relatively few of the UK’s more recent LTNs have <a href="https://twitter.com/hackneycouncil/status/1554765517843570689">altered street layouts</a> to encourage new uses by, for example, widening pavements and turning car parking spaces into public seating may be part of the issue. If LTNs were implemented with a stronger focus on urban design and physical changes to the streetscape, they could have a potentially transformative effect on how people feel about and use residential streets.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/superilles/en/">“superblocks”</a> initiative (city blocks where pedestrians and cyclists are prioritised over motorised vehicles) in Barcelona is a good example of such an approach. Following the implementation of the city’s Sant Antoni superblock, <a href="https://bcnroc.ajuntament.barcelona.cat/jspui/handle/11703/129164">research</a> found a 33% reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions, an 82% reduction in traffic within the superblock and a 28% increase in public space to walk and play in. </p>
<p>During trial phases, various features were incorporated into Barcelona’s neighbourhoods, including coloured pavements, mobile tree planters and pop-up playgrounds. In the <a href="https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/superilles/ca/content/poblenou">Poblenou superblock</a>, the final design of street changes resulted from two weeks of <a href="https://bcnroc.ajuntament.barcelona.cat/jspui/handle/11703/129164">laboratories and debates</a> involving residents, council officers, political representatives and more than 200 students and teachers from different schools of architecture.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A low-traffic neighbourhood with curbside seating and colourful decoration." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533121/original/file-20230621-16-9mq8gq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sant Antoni superblock, Barcelona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Furlong</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, the future of LTNs hangs in the balance due to a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/19/low-traffic-neighbourhoods-no-government-money/">shaky funding base</a>. But this development is accompanied by a climate emergency that demands swift and decisive action. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jamie Furlong receives funding from TfL for a related project analysing behaviour change and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods. He also receives funding, as part of a team at Westminster University, from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ersilia Verlinghieri, as part of a team at Westminster University, receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harrie Larrington-Spencer, as part of a team at Westminster University, receives funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research for a project examining the effects of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London.</span></em></p>LTNs were introduced to UK cities to create a more pleasant environment for pedestrians and cyclists - but they’ve become controversial.Jamie Furlong, Research Fellow in Active Travel Interventions, University of WestminsterErsilia Verlinghieri, Senior Research Fellow at the Active Travel Academy, University of WestminsterHarrie Larrington-Spencer, Research Fellow in the Active Travel Academy, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.