tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/australian-greens-25903/articlesAustralian Greens – The Conversation2023-08-16T20:05:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116052023-08-16T20:05:47Z2023-08-16T20:05:47Z‘The world has changed’: why Anthony Albanese must up the ante on climate policy at Labor’s national conference<p>Party members, unions and politicians will meet in Brisbane on Thursday when Labor’s national conference begins. The event is where Labor’s federal policy direction is hashed out. This year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be under pressure from within the party to boost Labor’s action on climate change.</p>
<p>This is federal Labor’s first conference since forming government in May last year. Following that win, there was enormous goodwill for the party’s political platform – both from within Labor’s membership and the broader community. The sentiment extended to Labor’s modest promised action on climate change, which seemed like a giant leap forward after the climate policy desert of the Coalition years.</p>
<p>Since the election, however, the world has changed. The climate emergency is accelerating with breathtaking speed. And the frightening frequency of climate-related disasters further validate the agendas of the Greens and the teal independents as they push the government for ambitious climate action. </p>
<p>So let’s take a look at where the Albanese government stands on climate policy ahead of its national conference, and where it needs to go before the next election. </p>
<h2>What has Labor done on climate change?</h2>
<p>Labor’s climate action has been a vast improvement on the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/morrison-governments-climate-record-deemed-a-catastrophic-failure/">very low bar</a> set by the previous Coalition government. But there’s plenty of room for improvement.</p>
<p>For example, Labor <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-passes-climate-change-bill-house-representatives">enshrined into law</a> an emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. But as others have <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-2030-climate-target-betters-the-morrison-government-but-australia-must-go-much-further-much-faster-173066">noted</a>, more cuts are needed for Australia to do its share on emissions reduction under the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Labor’s strengthening of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/safeguard-mechanism-climate-change-policy-explained/102151992">safeguard mechanism</a> will go some way to curbing industrial emissions. But the government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/australias-climate-policies-dont-match-its-big-talk-cop27-2022-11-20/">continues</a> to support new mining and energy projects.</p>
<p>This week, thousands of Labor’s rank-and-file members will use the national conference to pressure Albanese on climate action. The push, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/thousands-of-labor-members-take-climate-challenge-to-albanese-20230813-p5dw5m.html">backed by 350</a> Labor branches, will call for a windback on land clearing and native forest logging (which would help reach emissions-reduction goals), and more subsidies for renewable energy.</p>
<p>That’s not the only internal pressure Albanese faces, however. The Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union is reportedly set to oppose the push to abandon native forest harvesting.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Aside from its internal juggling act, Labor must significantly enhance its climate credentials before the next election to fight off teal independents and the Greens.</p>
<p>Last year’s <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/watershed-election">watershed federal election</a> resulted in six progressive “teal” female independents entering parliament, by displacing male Liberal Party incumbents from inner-city blue ribbon seats. The new MPs joined independent Warringah MP Zali Steggall, who was elected in 2019.</p>
<p>The wave of teal victories was seen in part as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/21/teal-independents-punish-liberal-moderates-for-inaction-on-climate-crisis-and-integrity-commission">punishment</a> for the Liberals over climate inaction. </p>
<p>The Greens party, too, had its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">best-ever</a> federal election result. </p>
<p>It won four lower house seats – Melbourne, which party leader Adam Bandt retained, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-2022-election-results-coalition-routed-in-cities-and-in-western-australia-can-they-recover-in-2025-184755">three</a> new seats in inner Brisbane. The party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-28/greens-win-brisbane-seat-electorate-federal-election/101104170">says</a> the success gives it a mandate to push the government harder on climate change.</p>
<p>Since being elected, the Greens and the crossbench – including the teals and independent senator David Pocock – have all pressured Labor to strengthen its climate agenda.</p>
<p>For instance, the crossbenchers and the Greens secured <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-04/climate-bill-passes-lower-house-greens-teal-tweaks/101299160">amendments</a> to Labor’s Climate Change Bill. <a href="https://www.davidpocock.com.au/a_step_towards_more_credible_climate_policy">Pocock</a> and the Greens also won changes to the so-called “safeguard mechanism”, which applies to emissions from Australia’s most polluting companies.</p>
<p>The crossbench pressure on the Albanese government is unlikely to let up. And Labor MPs could be battling <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-liberals-suffer-a-body-blow-this-time-in-2025-it-will-be-labor-s-turn-20220522-p5anij">new teal</a> challengers at the 2025 election.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Coalition has given up on providing any real opposition on climate and energy policy – putting most of its bets on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/aug/02/peter-dutton-has-reached-into-the-weeds-of-the-climate-wars-and-pulled-out-nuclear-energy-its-beyond-ludicrous">irrational</a> support for nuclear power. </p>
<h2>Labor’s climate challenge</h2>
<p>Australians have watched with alarm in recent weeks as the Northern Hemisphere summer went haywire. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/08/july-2023-worlds-hottest-month-climate-crisis-scientists-confirm">Air</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-19/nsw-warm-oceans-waters-earth-el-nino-beach/102236916">ocean</a> temperature records have tumbled and deadly wildfires have destroyed vast swathes of land from the Mediterranean to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">Hawaii</a>. </p>
<p>Australia, after an unseasonably <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">warm winter</a>, is heading into a hot, dry <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-04/world-meteorological-organisation-declares-el-nino/102560580">El Niño summer</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, climate change is becoming a key component in the cost-of-living crisis. Insurance premiums have reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/14/fears-many-australians-will-abandon-home-insurance-as-premiums-jump-50-in-high-risk-areas">jumped 50%</a> in the last year in high-risk parts of Australia, such as flood-prone areas.</p>
<p>Labor was bound to the climate policies it took to the last election. But there’s now a persuasive argument that climate conditions have dramatically shifted – and more radical policies are needed. </p>
<p>National Labor party conferences do not hold the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-foes-are-in-furious-agreement-and-that-s-infuriating-20230811-p5dvve.html">primacy</a> they once did, because the caucus and cabinet now hold more sway. But they remain the key avenue for grassroots members to influence party policy.</p>
<p>More significant government measures on climate change would satisfy the thousands of rank-and-file Labor members who want action. It would also help shore up Labor against progressive challengers at the next election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">'Australia is sleepwalking': a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The climate emergency is accelerating with breathtaking speed.
The Greens and the teals are breathing down Labor’s neck. At this federal Labor conference, Albanese must go further on climate policy.Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1992962023-02-06T04:22:17Z2023-02-06T04:22:17ZView from The Hill: Lidia Thorpe quits Greens, going to crossbench to promote ‘Blak Sovereign Movement’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508272/original/file-20230206-19-4urbzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2995%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Pockett/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. </p>
<p>The announcement by Thorpe, who has been the party’s spokesperson on First Nations issues, follows her sustained criticism and questioning of the Voice referendum. It also comes before the Greens this week formally announce their position on the Voice. </p>
<p>Thorpe said in a Monday statement that she was not stating her final position on the Voice – she wanted to continue her negotiations with the government. </p>
<p>Her departure, though a blow for the Greens, is not entirely bad news for them. While they lose a senate number, she has been a thorn in their side, and muddied their message on the Voice. </p>
<p>Her defection complicates the Senate position for the government. Previously, the government needed the 12 Greens plus one crossbench vote to pass contested legislation. Now it will need two crossbench votes.</p>
<p>The defection means the Coalition and non-Greens crossbench can form an absolute majority.</p>
<p>The position of crossbencher Jacqui Lambie is strengthened, including potentially on the legislation for the Voice referendum. Lambie has expressed concern about the Voice.</p>
<p>She said on Monday she “wanted to see the practical side – I want to see what difference this is going to make in these communities”. </p>
<p>Thorpe said she would vote with the Greens on climate but has not given a guarantee on other matters. </p>
<p>Thorpe has been a centre of controversy repeatedly.</p>
<p>In October she was sacked as a deputy leader of the Greens, after she failed to disclose a relationship with the former president of the Victorian Rebels outlaw motorcyle gang.</p>
<p>Taking the oath of allegiance at the swearing-in after the 2022 election she said: “I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to the colonising Her Majesty Elizabeth the Second […]”. She was required to repeat the oath using only the proper words. </p>
<p>Thorpe entered the Senate in 2020 filling a casual vacancy left by former Greens leader Richard Di Natale. Before that, she was briefly in the Victorian parliament in 2017-18. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/enshrining-the-voice-gives-best-chance-for-closing-the-gap-albanese-says-199259">Enshrining the Voice gives best chance for Closing the Gap, Albanese says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Thorpe previously indicated she would vote against the Voice if its establishment would cede First Nations sovereignty. The government insists it would not affect the sovereignty issue. </p>
<p>Thorpe said on Monday: “This country has a strong grassroots Blak Sovereign Movement, full of staunch and committed warriors and I want to represent that movement fully in Parliament”.</p>
<p>She could not do this from within the Greens, she said. “Now I will be able to speak freely on all issues from a Sovereign perspective without being constrained by portfolios and agreed party positions.”</p>
<p>She said Greens inside and outside parliament had told her they wanted to support the Voice. “This is at odds with the community of activists who are saying Treaty before Voice. That was the message from the January 26 street rallies, she said. "This is the movement I was raised in – my Elders marched for Treaty. This is who I am.”</p>
<p>Thorpe said while First Nations sovereignty was crucial, “so is saving lives today”. The government “could do that by implementing the recommendations from the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody and the recommendations from the Bringing Them Home report,” she said.</p>
<p>“My focus from now is to grow and amplify the Blak Sovereign Movement across the Nation. I have spent my entire life fighting for justice, to defend our Sovereignty, to save Blak lives. That is my goal.</p>
<p>"My strength and conviction comes from a lifetime of activism, from my Ancestors and from my Matriarchs, who continue to say to me every day, ‘keep infiltrating, keep your integrity, keep the fire burning, keep our fight alive.’”</p>
<p>“To my mob, I say this – your strength is my strength, your fight is my fight, your struggle is my struggle. I’m ready for what comes next in the fight for a future where our kids are with their families, where our people are not killed in custody, where the chains that the system wraps around our people are lifted”.</p>
<p>Greens leader Adam Bandt said he had tried to persuade Thorpe not to go. He said he hoped Thorpe and the Greens “will continue to work closely together on important issues given their strong policy alignment”. </p>
<p>Bandt said he had confirmed with Thorpe that under the Greens’ constitution she could vote as she wished on The Voice. If she voted differently from her colleagues “she would retain her portfolio but not be the party’s spokesperson on the referendum”. </p>
<p>“I’m sad to see her go, as I respect her greatly as a fighter for her people,” Bandt said. </p>
<p><strong>UPDATE – GREENS DECLARE THEY WILL SUPPORT THE VOICE</strong> </p>
<p>At a Monday night party room meeting, the Greens decided to campaign for a Yes vote in the Referendum.</p>
<p>The party’s stance, which had been expected, came just hours after Thorpe announced her defection to the crossbench.</p>
<p>Greens leader Adam Bandt said the decision followed “months of discussion with Labor which resulted in funding for Truth and Treaty and guarantees that First Nations Sovereignty will not be ceded, and after discussion with our party and our own Blak Greens network”.</p>
<p>“We want the referendum to succeed, we want First Nations justice and we want Truth and Treaty as well as Voice,” Bandt said in a statement.</p>
<p>“The Greens still strongly believe that a Treaty should come first. We have secured commitments from the government that they will proceed with Truth and Treaty as well as Voice, and we will be holding the government to account on this.</p>
<p>"I don’t think a ‘No’ vote will get us closer to Treaty and Truth, but I respect that others in the First Nations community may have a different view on that.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Her departure, while a blow for the Greens, is not all bad news for themMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1870002022-07-19T06:13:21Z2022-07-19T06:13:21Z3 lessons from Australia’s ‘climate wars’ and how we can finally achieve better climate policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474215/original/file-20220715-16-mu9m1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4249%2C3172&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, two influential environmental groups <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/green-groups-tell-adam-bandt-do-not-makeus-a-pariah/news-story/79302f93c565ed4de58f051f5e84393e">warned the Greens</a> not to stymie progress on Australia’s climate policy. In an unusual intervention, Greenpeace and the Australian Conservation Foundation urged the Greens to “play a constructive role” with Labor or risk being blamed for holding climate policy back. </p>
<p>The groups want the Greens to back Labor’s policy for a 43% cut in emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050 – then to push for more ambitious targets later. But Greens leader Adam Bandt has described Labor’s policy as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-smart-way-to-push-labor-harder-on-emissions-cuts-without-reigniting-the-climate-wars-187155">weak</a>” and the party has the numbers to block Labor’s bill in the Senate.</p>
<p>Tensions over strategy in and beyond parliament are a normal part of social movements and the policy process. Plus, it’s just plain hard to broker agreements for ambitious and effective climate policy. </p>
<p>But as my <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Pricing-Carbon-in-Australia-Contestation-the-State-and-Market-Failure/Pearse/p/book/9780367376826">research</a> has shown, Australia’s long-lasting climate wars offer three painful lessons we shouldn’t ignore this time around.</p>
<h2>1. We need to find common ground between idealists and realists</h2>
<p>It’s easy to dismiss the Greens and their allies in the environment movement as naive idealists. But at this historic moment, what constitutes realism is a matter of both political strategy and science.</p>
<p>The last time the green movement intensely debated carbon targets was in 2008. Then, the Rudd Labor government proposed a carbon pollution reduction scheme with a goal of a 5-15% emissions cut by 2020. The Greens argued it was inadequate and compensated polluters too generously. </p>
<p>In response, established green groups like the ACF and World Wildlife Fund for Nature and union peak bodies formed a coalition that backed Labor’s scheme and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/govt-and-coalition-strike-first-ets-deal-20091115-ifv9.html">publicly disagreed</a> with the stance of the Greens and most smaller green groups (including Greenpeace). By the end of 2009 the environment movement was split. </p>
<p>The big green groups identified as realists. They saw the scheme as imperfect, but were optimistic they could influence and improve it over time. </p>
<p>The grassroots wing of the environment movement, including new groups like Rising Tide and the Australian Youth Climate Coalition and GetUp!, was not convinced. They felt the big green groups were closing the window of opportunity too soon by agreeing to Labor’s scheme ahead of parliamentary debate. Given the grave climate threat, they wanted more and faster progress on emissions reduction.</p>
<p>Both the Greens and these newer groups believed Labor’s scheme was, as Greens leader Bob Brown put it at the time, “<a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-and-emissions-trading-%E2%80%93-your-questions-answered">worse than doing nothing</a>”. In particular, they objected to the weak emissions target, corporate windfalls and loose carbon offset rules.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Climate emergency sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474805/original/file-20220719-22-vx4t3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Newer environment groups pushed for faster and greater action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Rudd was replaced as party leader, Labor shelved the scheme, drawing criticism from the Greens and green groups of all stripes.</p>
<p>So what’s changed 14 years later? Labor wants the Greens and independent senators to support a bill legislating a symbolic goal (the 2030 target) without much detail about how it will achieve this. </p>
<p>For now, most green groups appear willing to support Labor’s carbon target legislation as long as the target is a genuine “floor” on ambition and there is an effective policy “ratchet” that can be used later. This is a Greens strategy straight from the 2008–09 period. But they are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/17/greens-open-to-backing-labors-43-emissions-target-but-demand-ban-on-new-coal-projects">even clearer now</a> that the ratchet should address coal and gas expansions.</p>
<h2>2. Carbon markets don’t depoliticise climate policy</h2>
<p>The legacy of the Rudd government’s weak carbon trading scheme lived on in the Gillard government’s 2011 carbon farming laws and the Abbott government’s Direct Action Plan. It left our main federal climate policy as a deeply flawed <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-central-climate-policy-pays-people-to-grow-trees-that-already-existed-taxpayers-and-the-environment-deserve-better-186900">carbon offset scheme</a> tied to incredibly <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-the-safeguard-mechanism-is-not-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-182054">loose caps</a> on Australia’s heavy emitters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-election-shows-the-conservative-culture-war-on-climate-change-could-be-nearing-its-end-183450">The election shows the conservative culture war on climate change could be nearing its end</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Carbon trading and offsets are a remarkably indirect way to deal with the climate problem. Emissions trading regulates emissions at the end of the pipe and tend to be designed in way that provide far <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17583004.2014.990679">too much flexibility</a> about where and when emissions are cut. </p>
<p><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9">Existing evidence</a> suggests carbon prices have not caused actual emissions reduction. Now it seems that Labor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/02/as-labor-enacts-its-emissions-reduction-target-will-the-climate-truce-survive">may end up using</a> the existing <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a> and carbon offset scheme to reach its 2030 target. </p>
<p>Market mechanisms, particularly emissions trading and offsetting, emerged as a political solution to industry resistance to climate policy. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-etslite-deserves-to-be-rejected-20091122-isr0.html">2009</a>, former CSIRO economist Clive Spash published compelling <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563460903556049">criticism</a> of carbon trading schemes. He outlined the gap between textbook theory of emissions trading and the realpolitik of industry influence over price design – and rubbished the idea you fossil fuel emissions can be offset by land carbon emissions. </p>
<p>Creating “credits” from land ecosystems should not be used to compensate for fossil fuel emissions. In terms of regulatory practice, land offsets are <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-know-the-flaws-of-carbon-offsets-its-time-to-get-real-about-climate-change-181071">broken by design</a>.</p>
<p>This week Labor will introduce a second piece of legislation to renew the Climate Change Authority’s role in measuring progress. This has green group support. But it’s doubtful expert advice alone will ramp up ambition. </p>
<p>No single piece of legislation will fully tackle this crisis. We urgently need <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622002298">strategies</a> investing in new industries and transition arrangements in the communities most affected by the turbulence of economic transition. </p>
<h2>3. Energy industry policy could be effective climate policy</h2>
<p>Politically, carbon markets have not helped broker consensus between political parties and with industry. </p>
<p>Tightening the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/12/coalition-allowed-emissions-from-queensland-coalmine-to-more-than-double-without-penalty">loose baselines</a> of industrial facilities and removing the link to offsets would make the safeguard mechanism more effective. Direct industry regulation like this sends a very efficient and clear market signal.</p>
<p>At present, environment groups are supporting the case for direct energy industry policy. In the decade since the climate wars began, most of Australia’s green groups have split off to work on electricity market reform and local campaigns to stop coal and gas expansion. </p>
<p>Expanding renewables and transitioning away from coal and gas require planned industrial restructuring at state and federal levels and careful diplomacy with our trading partners. These issues were never going to be addressed with a carbon price alone. </p>
<p>Every green group will need to push Labor to keep coal and gas in the ground. And hold Labor to account on the policy mechanisms it will have to ramp up if the government is serious about climate mitigation.</p>
<p>Most members of environment groups would identify as political realists. They know perfect policies are impossible. Here’s hoping they can pressure our reluctant government to get on with things.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-smart-way-to-push-labor-harder-on-emissions-cuts-without-reigniting-the-climate-wars-187155">There's a smart way to push Labor harder on emissions cuts – without reigniting the climate wars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187000/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Pearse receives funding from the Australian Research Council. In 2007-2014 she was a volunteer for Friends of the Earth. During this time she was a volunteer with its national climate justice campaign (2010-2013), and a member of its management committee (2013-2014).</span></em></p>Environment groups are pushing the Greens to accept Labor’s emissions target. What do these tensions mean for climate action?Rebecca Pearse, Lecturer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841592022-06-05T20:02:56Z2022-06-05T20:02:56ZYoung Australian voters helped swing the election – and could do it again next time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466733/original/file-20220602-22-pl2w0u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5079%2C2706&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens supporters celebrate on election night. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2022 federal election saw a significant <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/two-parties-are-no-longer-preferred-20220522-p5angn">move away</a> from the two major parties, with a host of independent and Greens candidates taking seats from Labor and the Coalition. </p>
<p>Amid predictions about a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">youthquake</a>” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift? And how important could they be by the next election?</p>
<h2>The trend was there</h2>
<p>Even before the election, researchers had noted major differences between younger and older voters.</p>
<p>Long-term <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">voting patterns</a> showed <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study">Labor</a> was more likely to attract young voters. But surveys also showed how both the major parties have been losing their youth vote to the Greens.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Voters at the polling booth on Election Day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466735/original/file-20220602-16-7ftnt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Younger voters were trending away from the major parties before the 2022 poll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">Australian Election Study</a> found after the 2019 election, 42% of voters under 24 did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. Of those aged 25 to 34, 35% did not vote for Labor or the Coalition. This compares to just 12% of those aged over 65.</p>
<p>We also know younger voters were more concerned about environmental issues and property prices than older voters. None of these were adequately addressed during the last term of parliament, which was <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-voters-will-inherit-a-hotter-more-dangerous-world-but-their-climate-interests-are-being-ignored-this-election-182663">marred</a> by frightening bushfires, heat waves and floods, and saw inadequate action on climate change and rising intergenerational inequality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-are-supposedly-turning-their-backs-on-democracy-but-are-they-any-different-from-older-voters-163891">Young Australians are supposedly 'turning their backs' on democracy, but are they any different from older voters?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Clear wins on May 21</h2>
<p>So it is not surprising that electorates with the highest rate of voters under 30 saw unprecedented support for Greens in 2022. An analysis of <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/elector_count/index.htm">AEC enrolment data</a> shows seats with four of the top five highest proportions of young voters (18-29 year-olds) went to the Greens. This includes: </p>
<ul>
<li>Melbourne with a youth vote of 26.9% (Greens retain)</li>
<li>Brisbane with a youth vote of 25.7% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
<li>Griffith with a youth vote of 24.7% (Greens gain from Labor)</li>
<li>Ryan with a youth vote of 22.5% (Greens gain from the Liberal Party)</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="YnO4F" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YnO4F/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Also in the top five was the seat of Canberra with a youth vote of 23.1%. This was an easy Labor retain. However, here the Greens primary vote was almost 25% and the Greens, not the Liberal Party, were used for the two-party-preferred calculations.</p>
<p>There were also a relatively high rate of youth enrolment in key seats likes Kooyong (20.8%, independent gain from Liberals) and Fowler (19.5%, independent gain from Labor). There were other Liberal-turned-teal seats with a relatively lower proportion of youth voters (Curtin 17.7%, Wentworth 17.1%, Goldstein 16.3%, North Sydney 16.3% and Mackellar 15.6%). But it is important to acknowledge the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/women-stormed-2022-federal-election-what-has-labor-pledged/101091444">women’s vote</a> may have been a stronger driving force in these seats. </p>
<p>So, what does this mean electorally going forward?</p>
<h2>The big debate about young voters</h2>
<p>Leading up to the election there was a lot of speculation about young people’s voting behaviour. As other countries recorded a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/upshot/youth-voting-2020-election.html">worrying decline</a> in youth electoral participation, I <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">argued</a> young Australians are different. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883">What will young Australians do with their vote – are we about to see a 'youthquake'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Still, there was concern the backdrop of COVID suffering, economic inequality, climate inaction and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/australians-faith-in-politics-has-collapsed-how-can-we-reimagine-democracy">decaying trust</a> in political leaders would culminate in youth political disengagement. Clearly, this did not happen.</p>
<h2>Parties and politicians now are on notice</h2>
<p>The election shows how the centre of gravity of Australian politics has shifted. The various swings away from the major parties revealed just how discerning voters can be. It also showed voters are likely to act based on policy concerns, rather than political allegiances.</p>
<p>The oldest millennial voters were 42 at this election, while first-time voters of 18 years of age included members of Generation Z. So, some of this can be attributed to generational replacement as the polls populate with more progressive, apartisan younger voters. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young voter walks past election advertising at the polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466736/original/file-20220602-17-smn9qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ahead of the election, there were fears young people would disengage with voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trend is only going to increase. A basic analysis of current enrolments, plus expected future enrolments suggests that by the next election, millennial voters and younger (those under 45) will make up about 44% of the voting population. This is similar to this election – where they made up 43% – but significantly up from ten or 20 years ago. That means what we consider to be younger generations are replacing their older counterparts - and their more conservative values - over time in the electorate. </p>
<p>The 2022 election also sends a crucial political signal to the younger voters. The results show them the power of their actions to affect change in Australia’s democracy – and that the vote, in an aggregate sense, is an effective tool to do so. The 2022 federal election was one to restore young people’s hope and faith in the Australian democratic system. </p>
<p>Major parties need to acknowledge that younger voters do not like what they are offering, especially in response to climate change. If Labor is hoping to woo them back in 2025, it is interesting that “Minister for Youth” is <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-full-ministry">not a cabinet position</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1531936824431882240"}"></div></p>
<p>In the lead-up to their electoral success, the Greens worked hard in Brisbane – courting voters with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-28/greens-win-brisbane-seat-electorate-federal-election/101104170">young, personable candidates</a> who went <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">door-to-door</a> to speak to voters directly. But they need to keep working. The Greens and teal victories were a virtue of issue-based voters, who will be watching whether these new MPs make change in Canberra. </p>
<p>Young voters in Australia can no longer be ignored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid predictions about a “youthquake” before May 21, what role did young voters play in this radical electoral shift?Intifar Chowdhury, Associate lecturer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1817052022-05-02T03:26:03Z2022-05-02T03:26:03ZPolls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460702/original/file-20220502-16-7d1jod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C3997%2C2476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russell Freeman/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-polling-at-the-campaign-s-halfway-mark-20220501-p5ahiv.html?btis">major poll</a> published yesterday suggests the Greens are set to grow as a political force at this month’s election, showing its primary vote has risen markedly from 10% in 2019 to a current high of 15%.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/climate-rises-as-the-no-1-voter-concern-20191115-p53auw">surveys</a> show <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/vote-compass-federal-election-issues-data-climate-change-economy/101002116">large numbers</a> of voters see climate change as their biggest concern, and the jump in Greens’ support indicates the issue is determining the way many people plan to vote.</p>
<p>The party goes to next month’s election armed with ambitious, big-spending policies. It strongly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-expecting-to-hold-balance-of-power-20220410-p5acem.html">fancies its chances</a> in at least five lower house seats and hopes to pick up three more Senate seats.</p>
<p>But for the Greens, the path to real power lies in a hung parliament where they can seek to extract policy concessions from a minority Labor government. The Greens and Labor have a <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/whitlams-children-electronic-book-text">mixed record</a> of working together, but can learn from past experience. So let’s take a closer look at what we can expect from the Greens in a hung parliament.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="rows of cupcakes bearing Greens logo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sweet smell of success: The real path to power for the Greens lies in a hung parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seeking the balance of power</h2>
<p>Opinion polls earlier in the election campaign put the Greens at <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2022-newspoll-and-ipsos-polls-yet-to-see-big-impact-from-campaign/cf47963e-b9b3-4a8c-84c0-f2f70562dbd7">between 11%</a> <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/25/ipsos-55-45-to-labor/">and 13%</a> of the primary vote.</p>
<p>In 2010 they polled <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1112/12rp07">11.76%</a> in the House of Representatives (giving them a shared balance of power) and 13% in the Senate (delivering the balance of power outright).</p>
<p>The 2010 election led to the first federal hung Parliament in 70 years, although these are common outcomes in the states and territories. Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s deal with the Greens in 2010 to form a minority government ended acrimoniously.</p>
<p>Labor leader Anthony Albanese has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-rules-out-fringe-deal-in-rebuff-to-greens-on-climate-20220207-p59uj9.html">ruled out</a> such a power-sharing deal this time around, as Bill Shorten did ahead of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-deals-major-parties-rule-out-return-to-gillardera-coalition-government-20160510-goqst4.html">2016</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power">2019</a> elections. </p>
<p>But if a hung parliament does eventuate and Labor refuses a power-sharing deal, it would be left clinging to power, vote by vote. In any case, Labor would have to negotiate support from the Greens and independents in order to govern – and offer a swag of policy concessions in return.</p>
<p>The Greens are also a chance of recapturing the balance of power in the Senate, which means their influence after May 21 may still be significant.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-steady-in-newspoll-and-gains-in-resolve-how-the-polls-moved-during-past-campaigns-181953">Labor's lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The ability to influence policy is key to the legitimacy and relevance of minor parties such as the Greens. </p>
<p>Under the Gillard Labor minority government, the Greens had significant policy <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/10-years-greens-labor-agreement-formula-progressive-change">success</a>. They pushed Labor towards a carbon pricing policy that briefly turned around energy emissions growth, and a <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2Fde045419-4cf3-4a48-a502-ec68c5e81782%2F0009%22;src1=sm1">dental health</a> package for children and low-income earners. </p>
<p>These signature policies were short-lived though; abolished by Abbott Coalition government after the 2013 election.</p>
<p>Some Green initiatives <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/About_the_PBO">survived</a>, however, such as the Parliamentary Budget Office, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.</p>
<p>Relations between Labor and the Greens eventually failed once the Gillard government adopted a watered-down <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b97aac1a-8567-11df-aa2e-00144feabdc0">mining tax</a>. The Greens also <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/christine-milne-addresses-national-press-club">decried</a> Labor’s failure to make headway on environmental protection, national heritage, the Great Barrier Reef, Tasmania’s wilderness, the Murray Darling Basin and more.</p>
<p>So what policy demands can we expect from the Greens this time around?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and woman shake hands at table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Relations between Labor and the Greens eventually failed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A big policy agenda</h2>
<p>In the case of a hung parliament, the Greens would demand a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-will-demand-coal-gas-moratorium-as-condition-for-support-20220206-p59u54.html">halt</a> to all new coal, gas and oil projects for at least six months while they negotiate with Labor over climate policy. It would also push for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/greens-to-push-for-coal-export-levy-if-they-hold-balance-of-power">coal export levy</a> to fund disaster recovery and clean export industries.</p>
<p>In their 2022 electoral platform, the Greens are again aiming high. Their <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform">headline</a> policies include:</p>
<ul>
<li>a treaty with First Nations people</li>
<li>free dental and mental healthcare</li>
<li>wiping out student debt </li>
<li>building one million publicly owned, affordable, sustainable homes</li>
<li>overhauling labour laws to outlaw insecure work and increase wages. </li>
</ul>
<p>Should the Greens hold the balance of power, they would likely also call for the next government to urgently release the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/action-on-environment-report-card-stalls-as-government-slow-to-release-20220406-p5ab75.html">delayed</a> State of the Environment report, and to implement the recommendations from a 2020 independent review into Australia’s <a href="https://epbcactreview.environment.gov.au/resources/final-report">environment laws</a>.</p>
<p>The party’s <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/enviro#greenaus">environment platform</a> offers the usual extensive suite of policies and detailed measures to address the extinction crisis, green jobs, clean water, caring for country, sustainable agriculture, preventing animal cruelty, eliminating single-use plastics and improving ocean health.</p>
<p>As well as phasing out coal, oil and gas, the Green’s <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/climate">climate policy</a> includes:</p>
<ul>
<li>banning political donations from fossil fuel companies</li>
<li>installing cleaner, cheaper power for homes and business</li>
<li>assisting workers in the clean energy transition</li>
<li>funding climate resilience</li>
<li>supporting cleaner cars, electricity and manufacturing.</li>
</ul>
<p>Their energy plan allocates A$17.1 billion to electrify Australian homes, $14.8 billion electrifying small businesses and $12.6 billion installing <a href="https://naturalsolar.com.au/solar-news/solar-battery-boom/">small-scale solar</a> batteries.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-it-needs-it-australia-can-draw-on-significant-experience-of-minority-government-62095">If it needs it, Australia can draw on significant experience of minority government</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where next for the Greens?</h2>
<p>If the polls are right, the Greens are a chance to reclaim the balance of power in the Senate and to share the balance of power in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>In the longer term, the Greens aspire to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/pale-labor-needs-greens-says-bob-brown/news-story/aa91d395809e700cceba6d613c7e43c4">replace Labor</a> in government. But as experience in Tasmania and the ACT shows, Greens ministers can successfully serve in Labor cabinets.</p>
<p>For now, the Greens are nipping at the heels of the major parties. The party’s best prospects for realising its policies in national government lie in reconciling with Labor and learning to work in coalition.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-pledges-to-make-gender-pay-equity-a-fair-work-act-objective-182281">Albanese pledges to make gender pay equity a Fair Work Act objective</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Greens and Labor have a mixed record of working together, but can learn from past experience.Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810582022-04-18T19:57:44Z2022-04-18T19:57:44ZClimate policy in 2022 is no longer a political bin-fire – but it remains a smouldering issue for voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458079/original/file-20220414-21-r72kil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5542%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As far as political debate goes, this federal election seems to be less about climate change than any in the past 15 years. Unlike in 2010, 2013 and 2016 – when governments were elected and leaders deposed over climate policy – this time there’s no brutal contest over the issue.</p>
<p>There are no calls for emissions trading schemes, no Greens <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bob-brown-s-convoy-hurt-labor-says-richard-di-natale-20191006-p52y1e.html">cavalcade</a> into Queensland’s coal-mining hinterland, and no Labor <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/adani-could-cost-labor-victory-on-may-18-20190509-p51lk5">prevarication</a> over the Adani coal mine. The election is shaping up as a contest over other issues – leadership integrity, crisis management, economic nous and the cost of living. </p>
<p>Even so, and although overshadowed by the COVID pandemic, the current term of government has been framed by extreme climate events – first the Black Summer bushfires and, more recently, floods. </p>
<p>In 2019, climate change determined how <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248268">about 13%</a> of Australians voted. And while it’s early days in the campaign, <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7633277/climate-health-top-your-concerns-going-into-federal-election-campaign/">several</a> <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/aussie-voters-want-climate-action-what-could-decide-key-seats/news-story/32dbb1ba3c3228facb5bb65cb8c3478c">polls</a> suggest climate change remains a defining issue for voters this time around. If they’re right, the Coalition is in trouble. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="firefighter holds head while lying down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440578/original/file-20220113-13-xa4qd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters will not easily forget the trauma of the Black Summer fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate emergencies fuel climate anxiety</h2>
<p>Public anxiety over future climate damage is growing. The Lowy Institute <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">has found</a> 60% of Australians now say global warming is a significant and pressing problem. The same poll showed 55% of Australians say the government’s energy policy should prioritise “reducing carbon emissions” – up eight points since 2019. </p>
<p>We can expect the climate vote to be driven by several factors. They include: personal experience of disaster and recovery, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s leadership on the issue, the government’s performance in reducing emissions, power prices and energy security, and competing parties’ credibility and promises on climate action.</p>
<p>There is mixed evidence on how extreme weather affects voting intentions. For example, while <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358447878_Climate_change_experiences_raise_environmental_concerns_and_promote_Green_voting">some</a> studies say it benefits parties with greener policies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-shows-voters-favour-financial-relief-after-disasters-but-we-need-climate-action-too-179028">others</a> indicate voters prioritise economic security after a disaster.</p>
<p>But the Morrison government has also been accused of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-accept-the-criticism-scott-morrison-apologises-for-family-holiday-20191222-p53m6o.html">weak leadership</a> during recent disasters and being <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/history-repeating-morrison-too-slow-on-a-natural-disaster-20220309-p5a37f.html">too slow</a> to deliver assistance afterwards. Such perceptions, particularly in disaster-hit areas, are likely to weigh heavily against the government.</p>
<p>The election, of course, will not be decided on the overall swing, but what happens in marginal seats and those where credible independent candidates – many of them with climate action high on their agendas – pose a real threat to incumbents. </p>
<p>Some 25 electorates are likely to determine the next government. The 2019 election was only narrowly won by the Coalition and it <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/marginal-seats-what-are-they-and-why-do-they-matter">currently holds</a> nine seats on a margin of less than 4%. Labor holds 14 marginal seats and independents hold two. </p>
<p>Seven of these seats were hard hit by the Black Summer fires and this year’s floods. Five are marginal seats held by the ALP – Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie and Gilmore in NSW, and Lilley in Queensland. </p>
<p>If the fires and floods do swing votes this election, they’re likely to secure Labor incumbents in these seats.</p>
<p>The other two – Page in NSW and Gippsland in Victoria – are safe Nationals seats and likely to remain so.</p>
<p>Independents campaigning on climate policy look set to challenge Liberal supremacy in three urban seats: <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-chill-winds-of-change-and-the-battle-for-goldstein-s-golden-mile-20220407-p5absh.html">Goldstein</a> in Victoria, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/27/allegra-spender-wentworth-independent-hopeful-says-climate-action-is-vital-for-economy">Wentworth</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-the-liberal-party-s-latest-problem-a-climate-driven-independent-20210917-p58sjz.html">North Sydney</a> in NSW.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Zali Steggall, an incumbent climate independent, looks secure in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/10/nsw-liberals-reopen-nominations-in-warringah-in-race-to-find-candidate-to-run-against-zali-steggall">Warringah</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman stands in fornt of climate protest signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458082/original/file-20220414-20-hkguuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-climate independent Zali Steggall looks set for re-election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marion Rae/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A credibility problem</h2>
<p>Scott Morrison has a climate credibility problem. Having defined himself while treasurer by brandishing a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/09/scott-morrison-brings-coal-to-question-time-what-fresh-idiocy-is-this">lump of coal</a> in Parliament, as prime minister he’s been accused of lacking empathy for victims of climate disasters.</p>
<p>Morrison’s trip to Hawaii during the Black Summer fires continues to haunt his reputation. And given the ongoing sensitivities around his disaster responsiveness, his government’s assistance after the recent floods was surprisingly sluggish.</p>
<p>Australia’s low climate policy ambition and persistent refusal to increase its 2030 emissions target saw it branded a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">laggard</a> at last year’s crucial United Nations climate summit in Glasgow.</p>
<p>The government has sought to claim credit for Australia’s success in reducing emissions from the energy sector. But most momentum derives from <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-joined-china-south-korea-and-japan-as-climate-leaders-now-its-time-for-the-rest-of-australia-to-follow-149731">state and territory</a> policies, and private investment – coupled with the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Political-Economy-of-Coal-Obstacles-to-Clean-Energy-Transitions/Jakob-Steckel/p/book/9780367491024">dynamism</a> and market competitiveness of the renewable energy sector itself.</p>
<p>And federal plans for a “<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/gas-fired-recovery">gas-fired recovery</a>” from the pandemic make no <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-10/gas-led-recovery-likely-to-be-a-mirage/12843276">economic</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-biggest-fossil-fuel-investment-for-a-decade-is-in-the-works-and-its-greenhouse-gas-emissions-will-be-horrifying-172955">ecological</a> sense.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670">'The Australian way': how Morrison trashed brand Australia at COP26</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>The road to elections is paved with broken old promises and lit by bright new ones (see table below). </p>
<p>The crucial indicator is the short-term national emissions target. The Coalition is sticking with a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. Labor is aiming for a 43% cut in the same period. The Greens and independents want more, and would legislate their targets. </p>
<p>While the Coalition has no renewable energy target, Labor is promising renewables will comprise 82% of the national grid by 2030.</p>
<p>But how will they get there? This year’s federal budget – which barely mentioned climate change – outline the Coalition’s express commitments. It provides funding for liquified natural gas production, <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/federal-budget-fails-to-prioritise-rapid-transition-to-renewable-energy">but no</a> declining funding for renewable energy.</p>
<p>The budget also <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs5.pdf">offers</a> $12.3 billion for road infrastructure and $3.7 billion for rail next year. But there’s little for electric vehicles – crucial for cutting transport emissions and fuel costs. </p>
<p>Labor is promising <a href="https://alp.org.au/policies/rewiring_the_nation">$20 billion</a> for powergrid upgrades and renewables, <a href="https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/labor-solar-batteries-mb2262/">$200 million</a> for solar banks and community batteries, and a <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/electric_car_discount/">discount scheme</a> for electric cars.</p>
<p>Seeking to repair Australia’s international reputation, Labor is also offering to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/clear-message-labor-promises-to-bid-to-host-global-climate-change-summit-if-elected-20220405-p5aaz8.html">host</a> a future United Nations climate conference, which traditionally serves to enhance the host nation’s domestic performance.</p>
<p>But tellingly, neither major party mentions fossil <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-net-zero-plan-fails-to-tackle-our-biggest-contribution-to-climate-change-fossil-fuel-exports-170646">fuel exports</a> – the overwhelming and growing contributor to Australia’s global carbon footprint. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/9387137/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/9387137/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/9387137" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<hr>
<h2>What will the next term bring?</h2>
<p>Obviously, we don’t yet know the persuasion of the next government – nor whether it will rely on support from minor parties and independents. </p>
<p>But we <em>do</em> know it will confront growing pressure for tougher climate targets and action – from the electorate, our international peers and the rising number of climate-related legal challenges.</p>
<p>As this month’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates, extreme events will inevitably intensify and require more, and better coordinated, responses. </p>
<p>Ever more forcefully, we can expect global warming to continue shaping Australia’s political landscape.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector-170099">The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here's a 'to do' list for each sector</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff is a member of the not-for-profit group Environment Victoria, and was previously affiliated with the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Victorian Greens.</span></em></p>Notwithstanding COVID, this political term has been framed by extreme events such as the Black Summer bushfires and floods – and it will show at the ballot box.Peter Christoff, Senior Research Fellow and Associate Professor, Melbourne Climate Futures initiative, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1806712022-04-12T03:43:28Z2022-04-12T03:43:28ZVoters love the Greens’ message more than ever – but it may not lead to a surge of votes for them<p>The Greens have long battled against the perception they’re the radical fringe or the electoral ingenues of Australian politics.</p>
<p>Today, neither of these labels bedevil them in quite the same way they might have previously. </p>
<p>Two factors make it increasingly difficult to typecast the Greens in these terms. First, the issue that elevated the Greens to electoral prominence – the environment – is no longer an abstraction for the public.</p>
<p>The second is the party is a known quantity. The Greens’ federal leader, Adam Bandt, is ensconced in one of the safest federal seats in the country, and is also one of Australia’s most “believable” politicians, according to the <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/morrisons-believability-questioned-in-new-poll-which-finds-some-have-never-heard-of-albanese-c-6362164">Believability Index 2022</a>.</p>
<p>So what are the Greens’ prospects this federal election? </p>
<p>Although the electoral and political context is more amenable to the Greens’ message than ever before, it may not translate into a dramatically improved vote.</p>
<h2>More experienced</h2>
<p>The Greens’ experience is showing in their approach to the campaign.</p>
<p>The messaging around the party’s policy agenda is more disciplined and strategic. </p>
<p>Consider, for example, its net zero carbon economy agenda. The party’s commitment to a net zero carbon economy is unchanged, but it’s more adept at foregrounding the importance of a transition “plan” and guaranteeing affected communities won’t be left behind. Bandt even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/25/greens-unveil-19bn-plan-to-subsidise-coal-workers-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuel-jobs">paid homage</a> to coal workers:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We owe coal workers a debt of thanks for powering our country. We don’t need to choose between taking urgent climate action and supporting coal communities. We can do both.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Crowded electoral space</h2>
<p>Campaigns are always noisy affairs, and 2022 is no exception.</p>
<p>In addition to the usual problem of visibility in an electoral context dominated by the two major parties, compounding the situation for the Greens is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">Clive Palmer’s</a> extraordinary media advertising purchase power, and the fascination with the “teal” <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7665996/the-teal-wave-the-new-breed-of-independents-shaking-up-australian-politics/">independents</a>.</p>
<p>The problem of visibility in a crowded electoral space is reflected in the opinion polls.</p>
<p>If current trends are any indication, the Green vote won’t surge (with the possible exception of stronger growth in Queensland) but will remain stable at <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victory-within-albanese-s-grasp-but-morrison-still-in-the-race-20220404-p5aaoy.html">10-11%</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-polling-shows-voters-prefer-albanese-for-pm-and-put-climate-issue-first-in-teal-battle-179839">The Wentworth Project: polling shows voters prefer Albanese for PM, and put climate issue first in 'teal' battle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Seats to watch</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, every election presents opportunities, and the Greens rate their prospects in <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/19/greens-reveal-their-target-seats/164518920013357">eight lower house seats</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/bris">Brisbane</a> (LNP), <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/grif">Griffith</a> (Labor) and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/ryan">Ryan</a> (LNP) in Queensland</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/higg">Higgins</a> (Liberal), <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/kooy">Kooyong</a> (Liberal) and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/macn">Macnamara</a> (Labor) in Victoria</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/rich">Richmond</a> (Labor) in NSW </p></li>
<li><p>and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/canb">Canberra</a> (Labor) in the ACT.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>With the exception of Richmond, these are inner metropolitan seats. They’re also seats where the Greens have attracted over 20% of the primary vote, and the party has shown consistent vote gains over the past three electoral cycles. </p>
<p>However, some of these seats are more promising propositions than others. The Greens’ prospects are strongest in Liberal-held seats where their candidate has previously finished in second position, or in Labor-held seats where there is little difference in the Greens and Labors’ primary vote. Another useful requirement is that the incumbent’s primary vote is under 40%. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1468502335701729284"}"></div></p>
<p>Based on this, Brisbane, Ryan, Kooyong and Higgins are likely dim prospects. In these seats, the incumbent’s primary vote was over 45% in 2019 and, with the exception of Kooyong, the ALP candidate polled in second place. The swing against the incumbent is likely to benefit Labor, assuming the electoral momentum in Labor’s favour holds. </p>
<p>The outlier of the four Liberal seats is perhaps Kooyong, because of Monique Ryan, one of the “teal” independents. </p>
<p>Kooyong becomes very competitive for the Greens if Ryan is able to attract double digit support away from Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg, but fails to surpass the Greens’ vote. If so, it might be an exciting finish for the Greens, even if Frydenberg is still widely tipped to win. </p>
<p>The situation is more dynamic in Canberra, Macnamara and Griffith. Here, Labor’s primary vote is under 40% (or slightly over 40% in the seat of Canberra) and the Liberals typically finish in second position behind Labor. </p>
<p>These seats become winnable for the Greens if the Liberal vote collapses and the Greens emerge as the main beneficiary of this collapse. Under these conditions, these seats should become a two-way contest between Labor and the Greens. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1512956656170455040"}"></div></p>
<h2>Preferences?</h2>
<p>Whether the Greens succeed in winning these seats will, of course, depend on how the preferences of excluded Coalition candidates split. </p>
<p>We don’t have much federal data on this but based on the distribution of Liberal preferences in the seat of <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseDivisionTcpFlow-17496-228.htm">Melbourne in 2013</a>, the overwhelming majority of these votes transferred to Labor. </p>
<p>Yet more recent <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/analysis-of-the-2020-queensland-election-result/">state electoral data</a> indicates the Greens can also emerge as the main beneficiaries of the votes of excluded Liberal candidates.</p>
<p>Of course, there are still a lot of unknowns, such as the actual size of Labor’s much vaunted swing and in which states and seats, as well as the lower house preference strategies of the major parties.</p>
<p>In spite of the Greens’ optimism, its sluggish <a href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/">ad spend</a> in most of their targeted lower seats suggests they’re quite cautious about their prospects.</p>
<p>Whatever the outcome in the House of Representatives, the Senate presents an opportunity to build the party’s representation in the powerful upper house. Of the Greens’ nine serving senators, three are up for reelection.</p>
<p>If the party is able to maintain its primary vote, it will swell its ranks to 12 senators, returning it the balance of power in the Senate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Although the political context is more amenable to the Greens’ message than ever before, it may not translate into a dramatically improved vote.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795732022-03-21T03:18:35Z2022-03-21T03:18:35ZThe Greens’ liveable income guarantee is a serious idea the major parties won’t touch – yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453187/original/file-20220321-17-1i5mmmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5166%2C2630&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian Greens have lobbed a large rock into the placid pool of economic policy by announcing a proposal for a “<a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/greens-unveil-89b-income-support-increase/">Liveable Income Guarantee</a>”. </p>
<p>The policy would increase all income support payments – for those looking for work, studying full-time or unable to work because of age, disability or caring responsibilities – to A$88 a day (about $32,000 a year) from July 2023. </p>
<p>This payment level is based on the poverty line calculated by the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/research/labour/henderson-poverty-line">Melbourne Institute</a>. Increases to all payments would be indexed to changes to the poverty line. The policy would also scrap mutual obligation programs such as “work for the dole” and relax eligibility restrictions.</p>
<p>Currently welfare payments vary widely, with the age pension for a single person being about $70 a day, while JobSeeker is about $44 a day. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>JobSeeker vs age pension</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371424/original/file-20201126-25-1hrhd0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/age-pension/how-much-you-can-get">Source: Ben Phillips ANU, Services Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>This is the first significant economic policy in the undeclared campaign for the next federal election campaign. Up to to this point it looked like there wouldn’t be much to talk about.</p>
<p>Apart from some sweeteners carefully targeted at marginal seats and voting blocs, and small-scale initiatives like Labor’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-proposed-10-billion-social-housing-fund-isnt-big-as-it-seems-but-it-could-work-174406">social housing program</a>, the only significant new policy from either major party likely to follow the election is the “Stage 3” tax cuts legislated under the Turnbull government. </p>
<p>These cuts are supported by both the government and the opposition. Both major parties have also committed to “budget repair”, a euphemism for expenditure cuts, but are unlikely to provide any details until after the election.</p>
<h2>COVID-19 changed the landscape</h2>
<p>The Greens’ plan shares its name, and many of its design features, <a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-jobseeker-in-our-post-covid-economy-australia-needs-a-liveable-income-guarantee-instead-141535">with a proposal</a> put forward in July 2020 by Tim Dunlop, Elise Klein and myself. </p>
<p>We proposed this after the massive expansion of the JobSeeker program to deal with COVID-19 demonstrated Australia did have the resources to eliminate most sources of poverty when it was considered necessary to do so. We argued a liveable income guarantee would be an ideal way to make the achievements of JobSeeker permanent. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-jobseeker-in-our-post-covid-economy-australia-needs-a-liveable-income-guarantee-instead-141535">Forget JobSeeker. In our post-COVID economy, Australia needs a 'liveable income guarantee' instead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Greens’ policy differs from our 2020 proposal in two main respects. </p>
<p>First, it is more generous, raising all benefits. The Parliamentary Budget Office has calculated this will cost about $43.7 billion in the first year, and $44.9 billion in the second.</p>
<p>On the other hand, we proposed expanding payment eligibility to people engaged in volunteering, community projects and artistic and creative activity. The Greens’ proposal maintains the existing set of benefit categories. </p>
<h2>How to pay for liveable welfare payments</h2>
<p>As debt and deficits have faded as a political point-scoring issue, the idea that all new spending programs need to be matched with other cuts or extra revenue has become less compelling. </p>
<p>But resources used for one public program can’t be used for other programs, or for private expenditure. So it’s important to ask what kinds of measures could offset the call on public resources proposed in the liveable income guarantee. </p>
<p>The option with the biggest impact would be to cancel or defer the Stage 3 tax cuts, which will cost an estimated $18-20 billion a year. That would offset nearly half the money spent on the liveable income guarantee. </p>
<p>The Greens have also pointed to tax measures they have previously proposed, including a billionaires tax and a corporate super-profits tax. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-camouflage-150-billion-in-spending-call-it-tax-expenditure-176236">How to camouflage $150 billion in spending: call it 'tax expenditure'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It has always hard to estimate how much revenue such measures would collect, given the capacity of wealthy individuals and corporations to rearrange tax affairs. </p>
<p>On the other hand, with improved global cooperation on tax, thanks mainly to initiatives from the OECD, there is more capacity to make billionaires and large corporations pay a fairer share of the costs of the society that supports them.</p>
<p>Another source of offsets could arise from what used to be called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-camouflage-150-billion-in-spending-call-it-tax-expenditure-176236">tax expenditures</a>” and are now referred to more obscurely as tax benchmark variations. These are tax concessions or exemptions applying to particular activities or classes of taxpayer.</p>
<p>These total about <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-camouflage-150-billion-in-spending-call-it-tax-expenditure-176236">$150 billion a year</a> according to the latest Treasury estimates. The biggest elements are concessions on capital gains tax and superannuation.</p>
<h2>A policy for serious debate</h2>
<p>The Greens proposal would greatly improve the position of millions of Australians on low incomes at the expense of reducing the disposable incomes and wealth of the well-off, with a particular impact on the very rich. </p>
<p>Barring a complete revolution in Australian politics, there’s no chance the next election will lead to such a result, or even a serious move in that direction. </p>
<p>It is a striking commentary that the Greens’ Liveable Income Guarantee will be rejected by a government led by Scott Morrison, a self-declared conservative, and also by Anthony Albanese, a leader from the Labor Party faction still sometimes called the “socialist left”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-happens-when-you-free-unemployed-australians-from-mutual-obligations-and-boost-their-benefits-we-just-found-out-157506">What happens when you free unemployed Australians from 'mutual obligations' and boost their benefits? We just found out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Based on current polls, the most that millions of Australians living in poverty can hope for is a Labor government in need of Green support raising benefits a little, and softening some of the most oppressive features of the current system.</p>
<p>But the point of an election is to debate and decide on the future direction of the country. By putting forward this bold initiative, the Greens are providing us the chance to have such a debate. </p>
<p>Other Greens proposals, like phasing out the use of coal, once seen as outside the realm of possibility, are now widely accepted. Similarly, the liveable income guarantee may make its way on to the policy agenda for the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin has undertaken research on the design of a Liveable Income Guarantee, but has not received external funding for this work. He is not a member of any political party.</span></em></p>The plan to increase all income support payments to a minimum of $88 a day is the first major economic proposal of the federal election campaign.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1673632021-09-10T05:52:19Z2021-09-10T05:52:19ZVital Signs: the Greens’ super-profits tax idea could end up burning muscle, not fat<p>Earlier this year, the Australian Greens proposed a <a href="https://greens.org.au/taxthebillionaires">wealth tax</a> on billionaires straight out of the (former US presidential candidate) Elizabeth Warren playbook.</p>
<p>This week it added what it called a “tycoon tax” that would tax so-called <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/tycoon-tax-raise-338-billion">super-profits</a> made by companies with annual turnovers of more than A$100 million.</p>
<p>It might not be the winner it seems. </p>
<p>If Australian taxpayers want to get more tax from super-profitable companies there might be better ways to do it.</p>
<p>Under the Greens proposal some companies, even large ones, would escape the extra annual tax. It would apply only to that part of their post-tax profits that exceeded an “allowance for a corporate equity”. </p>
<p>The allowance would be 5% of the value of the company plus the long-term bond rate, which at present is 1.2%, meaning at the moment the threshold would be a post-tax return on capital of 6.2%</p>
<p>Extra profit — so-called super-profit above the threshold — would be taxed at 40%, meaning almost half of it would lost.</p>
<h2>An idea with a backstory</h2>
<p>The Greens system is the system (and the rate) recommended by the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_1_consolidated.pdf">Henry Tax Review</a> for taxing the larger-than-normal profits from mining, and it’s the system used since 1988 for the larger than normal profits from <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Business/Petroleum-resource-rent-tax/">off-shore petroleum</a>.</p>
<p>What the Greens propose would apply not only to the earnings of Australian companies but also to the share of a multinational’s operations in Australia.</p>
<p>The mining sector would be dealt with on a project-by-project basis rather a company-by-company basis, which is what happened with Labor’s short-lived <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Business/Minerals-resource-rent-tax/">minerals resource rent tax</a> (also 40%) between 2012 and 2014.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420412/original/file-20210910-23-1f5t4tn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 2010 Perth rally against the Resource Super Profit Tax proposed by the Rudd Labor government. Josh Jerga/AAP.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Josh Jerga/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some years ago the idea was put forward by the <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1783/unrealised-gains_the_competitive_possibilities_of_tax_reform_final_14-6-2009-pdf.pdf?1631404737">Business Council of Australia</a> as part of a plan to remove the tax on normal company profits (something the Greens are not proposing to do). </p>
<p>In its 2009 submission to the Henry Tax Review, the Business Council said taxing only returns that exceeded a “normal” return had the “potential to stimulate investment both for locally based companies and inbound investors”.</p>
<p>But there are problems with the idea, as the Business Council acknowledged.</p>
<h2>It’s hard to get right</h2>
<p>One problem is that it is hard to know where to set the threshold between “normal” profit and “super” profit (what economists call “economic rent” which is returns in excess of those needed to justify the activity).</p>
<p>The threshold is unlikely to be 5% plus the bond rate across the entire economy.</p>
<p>If we end up not only taxing excessive economic rents but also genuine needed returns we might damage the engine of the economy. We would be like an athlete who is burning muscle as well as fat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-resources-tax-back-to-the-future-281">The resources tax: back to the future?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Investors take a risk when they put money into a business. </p>
<p>Sometimes the investment goes well, other times it will fail. Grabbing 40% of the extra upside, but leaving investors to wear all of the downside or accumulate losses to offset against future profits, would create an asymmetry.</p>
<p>It’d seem like “heads Adam Bandt wins, tails I lose”.</p>
<p>Many of the companies that make so-called super-profits would stay here grudgingly. The big five banks make profits way in excess of the threshold. Some multinational franchise operations probably make them as well.</p>
<h2>We can’t be certain companies would stay</h2>
<p>But other companies might decide to wind down their operations in Australia, redirecting investment to somewhere else. Jobs and wages might suffer.</p>
<p>Also it would be hard to measure the capital base of the the company to work out how to measure the return and calculate how much of it was above 6.2%.</p>
<p>The Greens did the right thing getting the independent Parliamentary Budget Office to assess how much the tax would raise.</p>
<p>The PBO’s best guess is that the mining component would raise $124.78 billion over 10 years and the non-mining component $213.9 billion.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-to-axe-mining-tax-but-petroleum-will-keep-on-giving-17952">Coalition to axe mining tax, but petroleum will keep on giving</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The costing of one of those components (the <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1781/Corporate_Super_Profits_Tax_PDF.pdf">non-mining component</a>) includes so-called “behavioural responses” which in this case means it assumes 20% less tax would be paid than calculated as companies restructured their affairs.</p>
<p>That might be too mild an assumption for such a big tax change.</p>
<p>The costing of the <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1782/Mining_Super_Profits_Tax_PDF.pdf">mining component</a> has not been adjusted. Anyone who remembers Kevin Rudd’s mining super-profits tax remembers the threats of big behavioural responses. They helped end Rudd’s prime ministership.</p>
<h2>There are more promising ideas</h2>
<p>On Monday at the ANU Crawford Leadership Forum, former Australian finance minister Mathias Cormann, who is now secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, outlined a more promising proposal.</p>
<p>The OECD has developed a worldwide plan to get multinationals with annual revenues of more than €750 million (about A$1.2 billion) to pay a minimum tax rate of <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/cormann-outlines-major-tax-reform-in-crawford-address">at least 15%</a> all over the world.</p>
<p>US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wants to go further. She is working on a global minimum corporate rate of 21%.</p>
<p>They are ambitious plans, but they have a real chance of success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is President-elect of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p>Taxing super profits sounds like a a good idea, but it’s hard to get right and there might be better ways to get more company tax.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448692020-08-25T05:57:11Z2020-08-25T05:57:11ZWhere are the Greens? As Di Natale leaves, Bandt must find a spotlight for his party in a pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354519/original/file-20200825-14-173er5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C29%2C4771%2C3052&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Anderson/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Tuesday, former Greens leader Richard Di Natale gave his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/richard-di-natale-to-give-farewell-speech-to-the-senate/12591998">farewell speech</a> to the Senate. </p>
<p>The party has now had six months to get used to its <a href="https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-elected-unopposed-as-new-greens-leader-131126">new leader, Adam Bandt</a>. But COVID-19 has made the year far more challenging than the Greens could possibly have expected when they swapped leaders back in February. </p>
<h2>What does Di Natale leave behind?</h2>
<p>Di Natale leaves parliament having been a senator for ten years and the party’s leader for five. </p>
<p>After his <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6892729/mp-leaves-parliament-for-coronavirus-test/?cs=17318">surprise resignation</a> to spend more time with his young family, Di Natale (a medical doctor by background) now leaves parliament at the height of a pandemic. </p>
<p>His legacy can best be seen as a steadying one: he stabilised the party after it suffered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2013-brings-a-mixed-result-for-the-greens-17524">form slump</a> at the 2013 federal election - where the Greens had a swing of more than 3% against them in the lower house. This followed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-didnt-walk-away-from-the-greens-but-milne-needed-to-ditch-labor-12308">bad blood</a> and bad publicity of the power-sharing agreement with the Gillard Labor government. </p>
<p>In 2015, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-greens-leader-wants-to-send-a-message-to-those-with-mainstream-values-41370">Di Natale became leader</a>, the party was also riven by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-greens-branches-call-on-lee-rhiannon-to-hand-over-reins-20180410-p4z8oi.html">infighting in NSW</a> and <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/22/2018/1529646013/green-tensions-build">Victoria</a>, with Queensland recovering from earlier <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/founding-fathers-turn-on-urban-greens/news-story/9b5aae8c62a6b9b316083e090d98ee44">internal divisions</a>. </p>
<p>Yet by 2019, these tensions were largely resolved, with Di Natale successfully taking a hands-off approach, in contrast to his more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/29/greens-acrimony-bob-brown-unloads-on-lee-rhiannon-and-nsw-party">interventionist predecessors</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bob-brown-taught-australians-to-talk-about-and-care-for-the-wilderness-131559">How Bob Brown taught Australians to talk about, and care for, the 'wilderness'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And while the party has still <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/mixed-greens-result-disappoints-but-could-deliver-senate-balance-of-power-20190519-p51oyd.html">not managed</a> to increase its lower house representation (from one), the Greens retained all six of its senators up for re-election at the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>So when Bandt <a href="https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-elected-unopposed-as-new-greens-leader-131126">took over as leader</a>, he started on the front foot.</p>
<h2>The change to Bandt</h2>
<p>Back in February, the Greens were sad about Di Natale’s departure (who was for the most part well-liked), but genuinely <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-leader-for-the-times-will-voters-get-on-the-bandtwagon-20200206-p53yiy.html">excited about their future</a> with Bandt at the helm. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Adam Bandt and Richard Di Natale standing against a Melbourne city skyline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354508/original/file-20200825-14-14ds3lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adam Bandt took over from Richard Di Natale as Greens leader in February.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Anderson/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The summer’s massive bushfires had driven climate change to the forefront of the Australian political agenda and Bandt, having taken over from Di Natale in a swift transition, was riding a wave of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/adam-bandt-elected-new-leader-of-the-greens-20200204-p53xgj.html">media attention</a>. </p>
<p>As a former industrial lawyer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-will-be-a-tougher-leader-but-the-challenge-will-be-in-broadening-the-greens-appeal-131145">his more combative style</a> was seen to be perfectly suited to fights over energy, environment and direction of the economy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-will-be-a-tougher-leader-but-the-challenge-will-be-in-broadening-the-greens-appeal-131145">Adam Bandt will be a tougher leader, but the challenge will be in broadening the Greens' appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>At the time, Bandt was enthusiastically spruiking his plans for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/04/adam-bandt-pledges-to-push-for-australian-green-new-deal-after-being-elected-greens-leader">Green New Deal</a> as a way to take the climate debate forward and his party to the next federal election. </p>
<p>But fast forward to Di Natale‘s valedictory speech and we also fast forward to the question: where are the Greens? </p>
<h2>The COVID challenge for the Greens</h2>
<p>This year has of course been overshadowed by COVID-19. There is no escaping the global pandemic. And this presents a big challenge for Bandt and the Greens. </p>
<p>The media’s hyper-attention on COVID has meant that unless you are the prime minister, a senior minister, state premier or chief health officer, there is little public airtime available for other people or issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman and man wearing masks, while walking a dog down suburban street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354514/original/file-20200825-16-12kkm4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COVID-19 has seen the media and public’s attention focus on the pandemic at the expense of other issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, it’s no surprise Bandt has struggled to break through with the Greens’ big priorities: discussion of climate change, environmental degradation (<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-wake-up-call-our-war-with-the-environment-is-leading-to-pandemics-135023">itself a risk</a> when it comes to new diseases), or a federal <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/greens-continue-push-for-federal-icac/12358756">anti-corruption commission</a>.</p>
<h2>There are opportunities for the Greens</h2>
<p>However, there is light on the horizon. The glow around Prime Minister Scott Morrison over the initial containment of COVID-19 <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-scott-morrison-hypes-vaccine-hopes-but-there-is-a-long-road-ahead-144801">has faded</a> as a second wave has bitten hard in Victoria. Anger grows over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-aged-care-royal-commissioners-say-sector-needs-independent-performance-reporting-144964">handling of aged care</a> during the pandemic. </p>
<p>There are also concerns around <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-been-stigmatising-unemployed-people-for-almost-100-years-covid-19-is-our-big-chance-to-change-this-143349">upcoming cuts</a> to COVID-related payments, which opens up space for the Greens’ <a href="https://greens.org.au/policies/social-services">social welfare agenda</a>. Debates about <a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-jobseeker-in-our-post-covid-economy-australia-needs-a-liveable-income-guarantee-instead-141535">how to structure</a> our post-COVID economy and society also present opportunities for the party. </p>
<p>With the ALP <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-20/labor-party-could-split-in-20-years-warns-fitzgibbon/12576842">continuing to appear divided</a> on energy and climate issues, the Greens have a further opening to pursue their signature policies.</p>
<p>So, there will be renewed scope and space for Bandt to make interventions on issues that directly affect individuals’ lives. </p>
<h2>State elections and power-sharing questions</h2>
<p>At the state/ territory level, watch out for two electoral tests for the Greens (and by proxy, Bandt’s leadership) in October. </p>
<p>In Queensland, the party will be looking to add one to two seats in central Brisbane to its currently held seat of Maiwar. In the ACT, the Greens will want to see a return of their <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/ACTElection2016">power-sharing deal</a> with Labor, which <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6868378/labor-on-track-to-win-2020-act-election-despite-losing-votes-poll/">available polling</a> suggests is likely.</p>
<p>Bandt has recently been talking up the potential of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/21/australian-greens-want-power-sharing-agreement-with-labor-if-theres-a-hung-parliament">another power-sharing arrangement</a> at the federal level with Labor. </p>
<p>While the ALP is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/richard-di-natale-pleads-with-labor-to-end-fractious-relationship-with-the-greens-20191212-p53jao.html">dismissive</a> of these overtures, they may not have that luxury if it comes down to a choice between government or opposition. The ongoing Labor-Greens <a href="http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1013792/Parliamentary-Agreement-for-the-9th-Legislative-Assembly.pdf">arrangement</a> in the ACT remains a clear sign the parties can - and perhaps should - work together. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-adam-bandt-on-greens-hopes-for-future-power-sharing-131466">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Adam Bandt on Greens' hopes for future power sharing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Can the Greens afford to relax?</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, we also need to consider that there is probably <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection">more than a year</a> until the next federal election. It might be argued the party can coast for now - at least at the federal level.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, the party’s lower house primary vote is sitting at about 11%. This is down from 13% in February, but <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/2019FederalElection#_Toc44333994">around the 10.4%</a> the party polled in the lower house on election day in May 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Greens candidate and volunteer, standing next to a Greens placard at a voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354511/original/file-20200825-22-q5pkkt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">According to the latest Newspoll, the Greens are sitting on a primary vote of 11%.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca De Marchi/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bandt’s focus now could be more on building up his <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/04/11/the-greens-new-deal/15865272009676">Green New Deal</a> plans - to come out with a bang when the best opportunity presents. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the Greens need to keep trying to find ways to be seen and heard. Otherwise, if Bandt and his party are out of the headlines for too long in the middle of a crisis, there is the risk voters may see the Greens as irrelevant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Jackson has received funding from The Australian Greens International Development Committee for research on Asia Pacific Greens parties. He was National Convenor for the Australian Greens 2003-2005, and remains a member of the party. </span></em></p>Back in February, the Greens were riding a fresh wave of momentum when they changed leaders. But COVID-19 has made it tough for the party to be seen and heard.Stewart Jackson, Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175032019-06-16T20:04:17Z2019-06-16T20:04:17ZWe asked people to do climate change maths. Their answers depended on their politics<p>In an ideal world, people would look at issues with a clear focus only on the facts. But in the real world, we know that doesn’t happen often. </p>
<p>People often look at issues through the prism of their own particular political identity - and have probably always done so. </p>
<p>However, in an environment of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lies-obfuscation-and-fake-news-make-for-a-dispiriting-and-dangerous-election-campaign-115845">fake news</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2016/11/16/13653026/filter-bubble-facebook-election-eli-pariser-interview">filter bubbles</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/04/21/barack-obama-and-the-psychology-of-the-birther-myth/the-echo-chamber-effect">echo chambers</a>, it seems harder than ever to get people to agree about simple facts.</p>
<p>In research published today in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2019.1618364">Environmental Communication</a>, my colleague Matthew Nurse and I report that even some of the smartest among us will simply refuse to acknowledge facts about climate change when we don’t like them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-old-school-climate-denial-has-had-its-day-117752">Why old-school climate denial has had its day</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Skin cream versus climate change</h2>
<p>The research took place just before Australia’s 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>We asked 252 people who were planning to vote for the Greens and 252 people who were planning to vote for One Nation to consider some data we’d put together. To understand that data, they would need to do some mental maths, just like you would when looking at a typical scientific report.</p>
<p>While there was no significant difference in the mathematical ability between the two groups of voters overall, it seemed that political affiliations can have an impact on how people answered a mathematical question, depending on the subject. </p>
<p>For example, in one experiment we told participants that data in the scientific report was about whether a new skin cream would cure a rash, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We asked them to indicate whether the experiment shows that using the new cream is more likely to make the skin condition better or worse. Participants in our study got the correct mathematical answer 48% of the time. </p>
<p>However, when we showed them exactly the same data but said it was about whether closing coal-fired power stations would significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the local area (by 30% or more), we got a very different set of answers. </p>
<p>For example, when the report showed CO₂ emissions would go down significantly, only 27% of One Nation supporters got the right answer.</p>
<p>When the report showed CO₂ emissions would not significantly go down, only 37% of Greens voters got it right. </p>
<p>So it seems our participants were less likely to answer a question correctly when it went against their political ideology.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-sceptic-or-climate-denier-its-not-that-simple-and-heres-why-117913">Climate sceptic or climate denier? It's not that simple and here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Spilt people according to maths ability</h2>
<p>But what follows is really the interesting bit. </p>
<p>We decided to find out whether numeracy – maths ability – played a role in people getting the wrong answers. First, we looked at those with below-average numeracy. </p>
<p>We found many of these people just gave their preferred, ideologically aligned answers when it came to the climate change question. This is a well-known effect called <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-06436-001">motivated reasoning</a>.</p>
<p>But surely the more numerate groups of people, those better at maths, would fare better? Well, not really.</p>
<p>The groups of people with above-average numeracy sometimes did worse than the less numerate groups. Some did no better than chance at 50%, and some did far, far worse than that, as the graph below shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More numerate people are more polarised about climate change data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2019.1618364">Matt Nurse</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we showed people reports about CO₂ emissions, the more numerate people were much more politically polarised than any other group. For example, the participants considered a report showing that CO₂ would go down significantly, a One Nation supporter with a numeracy score of seven (out of nine) was only 5% as likely to provide the correct answer as a Greens supporter in the same numeracy category.</p>
<h2>Motivations change brain function</h2>
<p>This is counterintuitive, but this isn’t the first study to reveal this effect.</p>
<p>These findings build on research previously done by a Yale professor, <a href="https://law.yale.edu/dan-m-kahan">Dan Kahan</a>. The phenomenon is a type of motivated reasoning called <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioural-public-policy/article/motivated-numeracy-and-enlightened-selfgovernment/EC9F2410D5562EF10B7A5E2539063806">motivated numeracy</a>. </p>
<p>While Kahan’s previous research focused on the politically polarising issue of gun control in the United States, some people suggested the same thing might happen with other topics, <a href="https://www.salon.com/2013/09/17/the_most_depressing_discovery_about_the_brain_ever_partner/">particularly climate change</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-politics-and-policy-what-can-we-learn-from-al-jazeeras-undercover-nra-sting-114291">Guns, politics and policy: what can we learn from Al Jazeera's undercover NRA sting?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research is the first to confirm this.</p>
<p>These findings build on the theory that your desire to give an answer in line with your pre-existing beliefs on climate change can be stronger than your ability or desire to give the right answer. </p>
<p>In fact, more numerate people may be better at doing this because they are have more skills to rationalise their own beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence.</p>
<h2>So what?</h2>
<p>You might ask whether it really matters if people sometimes get the wrong answer on questions like this. </p>
<p>We’d argue yes, it does matter. Successful democracies rely on a majority of voters being able to identify and understand risks, and make the appropriate voting choices.</p>
<p>If people remain entrenched in their ideological corners when threats come along, and are unwilling to face facts, societal problems can fester, potentially becoming much more difficult to resolve later.</p>
<p>Just imagine scientists had discovered human activity was damaging our atmosphere. They said this problem would cause Earth’s climate to get hotter and threaten our livelihoods. Politicians and the people they represented saw this as a legitimate issue worth acting on, regardless of their political views. Imagine the world united to fix this problem, even though it would cost a lot of money.</p>
<p>In fact, we don’t need to imagine too much, as this isn’t just a hypothetical situation. It actually happened when scientists found evidence the use of industrial chemicals was depleting the ozone layer. </p>
<p>In 1987, for the first and only time, all 197 members of the United Nations agreed to sign the <a href="http://web.unep.org/ozonaction/who-we-are/about-montreal-protocol">Montreal Protocol</a> regulating the man-made chemicals that destroy the ozone layer. More than 30 years later we can measure the <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/269">benefits of this agreement</a> in our planet’s atmosphere.</p>
<h2>A matter of science, not politics</h2>
<p>Unlike the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-old-school-climate-denial-has-had-its-day-117752">climate change debate</a>, people largely saw this risk as a matter of science, not politics. </p>
<p>But it seems people are increasingly encouraged to see risks like this through a <a href="https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-focus-on-the-framing-not-just-the-facts-73028">political frame</a>. When this happens, facts can become irrelevant because no matter how smart people are, many will simply deny the evidence to protect their side of the political debate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-focus-on-the-framing-not-just-the-facts-73028">Communicating climate change: Focus on the framing, not just the facts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Societies need to make good choices for their survival and those choices need to be based on facts, regardless of whether everyone likes them or not. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This research was conducted by Matthew Nurse as part of a master’s thesis at the Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will J Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked 252 Australian Greens party supporters and 252 One Nation party supporters to do some simple maths. Their answers changed when we told them it was climate change data.Will J Grant, Senior Lecturer, Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1171822019-05-16T20:09:48Z2019-05-16T20:09:48ZThe 2019 election on Twitter: Watergate, mums, and well-organised independents<p>The 2019 Australian federal election has many stories, but a handful stood out especially clearly on social media. As in <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-weeks-into-ausvotes-how-are-the-parties-doing-on-twitter-17304">2013</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ausvotes-a-final-update-from-the-social-media-hustings-61922">2016</a>, we have been busy capturing the activities by and directed at the Twitter accounts of House and Senate candidates, from the close of electoral rolls to election day itself.</p>
<p>This provides an insight into the most visible candidates and parties, and shows how attention on them ebbs and flows over the course of the campaign. It also points to some specific themes and events that have emerged at various points in time.</p>
<h2>An independent invasion?</h2>
<p>As usual during federal campaigns, Liberal and Labor candidates received the greatest share of attention by a substantial margin. But the story of this election is the engagement with independent candidates. In 2016, over the course of a 25-day campaign, independents received some 46,000 retweets and mentions. In 2019, in 25 days of campaigning so far, these numbers have more than doubled to 95,000 tweets involving independent candidates.</p>
<p>Among the most prominent independent candidates are Zali Steggall (challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah), Kerryn Phelps (campaigning to hold Wentworth, which she won after Malcolm Turnbull left parliament), and Rob Oakeshott (the former independent MP looking to make a comeback in Cowper). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-independents-part-of-a-green-left-conspiracy-new-research-finds-they-are-more-the-sensible-centre-117094">Are independents part of a 'green-left' conspiracy? New research finds they are more the 'sensible centre'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Together, the three account for some two-thirds of all tweets directed at independent candidates. If there is an independent invasion this election, as <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/blue-ribbon-battles-independent-invaders-could-decide-election-20190503-p51jp5">some media coverage predicts</a>, it remains strongly centred on a handful of high-profile challengers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275064/original/file-20190517-69195-1qs9ylk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mentions and retweets of candidates in the 2019 Australian federal election, aggregated by party affiliation, April 22 to May 16.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Axel Bruns/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No retweets = no endorsement?</h2>
<p>Twitter users’ engagement with independents, as well as with some opposition parties, is also qualitatively different from how they engage with government candidates. Labor, independent, and Greens candidates receive considerably more retweets than their Coalition counterparts. </p>
<p>Of all the tweets directed at opposition candidates, between 17% (ALP) and 24% (Greens) are retweets. Meanwhile, fewer than 3% of tweets at Liberal candidates, and fewer than 1% of tweets at National or LNP candidates, are retweets.</p>
<p>Many Twitter users take pains to stress that retweets do not necessarily mean endorsement, and this is true in principle. But what this significant lack of retweets for Coalition candidates does mean is that their own tweets receive considerably less amplification and visibility than those of their challengers. </p>
<p>Every retweet makes the original tweet visible to a new set of followers. If you don’t receive any retweets, you’re stuck only with those users who follow your own account. This may be a substantial number for Coalition frontbenchers (Prime Minister Scott Morrison, for example, has <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP">147,000 followers</a>), but it can’t compete with the added reach that retweets generate.</p>
<p>We have seen this lopsided pattern before. In 2016, Labor, independents and Greens candidates received considerably more retweets than Coalition accounts. Notably, in both the 2016 and 2019 elections, the Coalition government was on the back foot in the polls. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://mia.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/09/15/1329878X16669001">2013</a>, on the other hand, at the end of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years, neither Labor nor the Coalition attracted substantial numbers of retweets, and only the Greens enjoyed substantial amplification of their election messages on Twitter.</p>
<h2>Watergate washes through the system</h2>
<p>In any election campaign we have tracked on Twitter since 2010, the accounts of the major party leaders invariably received the greatest level of engagement – this is an indication of how presidential Australian politics has become, in spite of our electoral system.</p>
<p>However, immediately after the start of the official 2019 campaign, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce briefly and unwittingly stole the show. For a day or two, he was the most mentioned Australian politician on Twitter because of his association with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-23/water-buybacks-everything-we-know/11037798">Murray-Darling water buyback controversy</a>. The associated hashtag #Watergate also trended during that time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275065/original/file-20190517-69199-yz4epk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Engagement per hour (mentions and retweets) with the six most visible candidate accounts in the 2019 Australian federal election, April 22 to May 16.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Axel Bruns/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even later in that first week of the campaign, Joyce as well as energy minister Angus Taylor (who had been a director of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/angus-taylor-says-he-did-not-set-up-caymans-structure-on-80m-water-buyback">Cayman Islands company</a> connected to the controversy) continued to receive substantial mentions on Twitter.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-watergate-heres-what-taxpayers-need-to-know-about-water-buybacks-115838">Australia's 'watergate': here's what taxpayers need to know about water buybacks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>From week two of the campaign onwards, #Watergate receded, and the focus turned strongly towards the leaders. This was due especially to the three televised leaders’ debates during that time. </p>
<p>But on May 8 the focus turned overwhelmingly to Bill Shorten, as he <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/bill-shorten-mother-daily-telegraph-editorial-nowra-australian-election-news/ee072382-35e1-42b3-91e5-991fff26a107">responded forcefully</a> to a <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/labor-leader-bill-shortens-heartfelt-story-about-his-mother-was-missing-one-vital-fact/news-story/eeab8c4d16e3f55304e06eaa704699c9">Daily Telegraph story</a> questioning his late mother’s life story.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-shorten-turns-daily-telegraph-sledge-to-advantage-116740">View from The Hill: Shorten turns Daily Telegraph sledge to advantage</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our data clearly show how strongly that moment cut through the noise of the campaign: from midday to the evening news, more than 50% of all candidate mentions were directed at <a href="https://twitter.com/billshortenMP">Bill Shorten’s account</a>. “Mum” was also one of the highest-ranked topic areas in tweets directed at Labor party candidates over the entire campaign.</p>
<p>Finally, as news of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/bob-hawke-dies-former-australian-prime-minister-and-labor-leader/6562902">former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s death</a> broke on Thursday evening, another ex-PM found himself in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Tony Abbott’s tweet featuring a politically partisan tribute to Hawke was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/pea-for-a-heart-tony-abbott-criticised-over-partisan-tribute-to-bob-hawke">widely condemned on Twitter and beyond</a>, and made him the most tweeted-at politician by a wide margin that evening. There was plenty of criticism, but very few retweets.</p>
<h2>Taxes and truth</h2>
<p>During any campaign, political parties attempt to push particular agendas and framings into the public discourse, some of which are picked up and amplified by social media. For this election, the major topics in our Twitter sample are: taxes; climate change; truth in political advertising and media; and workers’ rights and conditions.</p>
<p>Topic prominence isn’t necessarily uniform across party lines though. When looking at specific parties or politicians mentioned by name on Twitter in association with certain topics, a more detailed picture of public sentiment emerges. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=229&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274641/original/file-20190515-60529-669xg1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top topic rankings in tweets directed towards specific parties in the 2019 Australian federal election, April 22 to May 14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Angus/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor has been berated for its “death tax”, despite this <a href="https://factcheck.afp.com/no-australias-labor-party-greens-and-actu-did-not-sign-agreement-introduce-death-tax">not being the party’s policy at all</a>. By contrast, Labor has garnered support online for its positions on protecting penalty rates, jobs, and restoring funding to public services.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party didn’t escape the Watergate scandal, copping criticism for its role in this issue along with the Nationals. It has also been criticised for cuts to essential services and what many Twitter users see as unfair economic policy. However, the party’s base has supported its messages relating to reducing national debt. </p>
<p>The Greens and independents were understandably aligned in the eyes of Twitter users on the issue of climate change, with most users lending support to Greens and independent candidates for progressive policies and action on this issue.</p>
<p>Finally, despite its millions spent on marketing, and early polls suggesting a bump in support, the United Australia Party has received some of the most critical attention on Twitter, with discussions about unpaid workers, preference deals, power grabs, taxpayer dollars, and coal at the centre of this online backlash.</p>
<h2>Interactions between candidates</h2>
<p>But how are the candidates engaging with each other? We used social network analysis techniques to gain a deeper understanding of this question. In our visualisation of those interactions (mentions and retweets), the three major parties are most prominent: Labor (red), Liberal (blue), and Greens (green), along with a considerable amount of activity by independents (yellow). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274608/original/file-20190515-60537-1yooar9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Network map of interactions (mentions and retweets) between candidates’ accounts in the 2019 Australian federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Graham/QUT Digital Media Research Centre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the network shows that candidates from the same party interact more often with each other. For instance, the bottom part of the network shows a dense cluster of Greens candidates with strong, reciprocated links between one another. </p>
<p>The Labor contingent is similarly actively engaged with one another, with <a href="https://twitter.com/grahamperrettmp">Graham Perrett</a> one of the most active points of connection. </p>
<p>The pattern is not as obvious for Liberal candidates, however, who appear more spread out in the network and don’t show the same level of activity and engagement with each other. This arguably lends credence to Labor’s claim throughout the campaign to have a unified team, in contrast to an internally riven Liberal party.</p>
<p>Overall, Labor candidates were 2.3 times more likely to interact with each other than Liberal candidates during the campaign. Similarly, Greens candidates were 3.7 times more likely than Labor candidates, and 8.3 times more likely than Liberals, to interact with fellow candidates of their own party. </p>
<p>This pattern is even more pronounced for independents, who are four times more likely to interact with each other compared with Labor candidates, and nine times more likely compared with Liberal candidates. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-message-is-light-on-ideology-and-strong-on-soothing-ahead-of-the-election-58813">Morrison's message is light on ideology and strong on soothing ahead of the election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Such patterns show the degree of coordination between candidates from the same party: they are looking to boost each other’s election messaging by mentioning and retweeting one another. Fifteen prominent independents, including Steggall and Oakeshott, have also adopted this tactic by <a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11084804">forming a loose alliance</a>. </p>
<p>By contrast, the fact that Liberal candidates are least likely to engage with one another is perhaps also a reflection of their electoral positioning. With opinion polls largely pointing to defeat, Coalition candidates are forced to take the fight to their opponents — on Twitter and elsewhere.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was updated on May 17, 2019, to include key developments from the penultimate day of the campaign.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Future Fellowship FT130100703 Understanding Intermedia Information Flows in the Australian Online Public Sphere and Discovery DP160101211 Journalism beyond the Crisis: Emerging Forms, Practices and Uses. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Angus receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for the Dynamics of Language.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council as part of a Discovery Project, 'Government Web Portals as New Government Actors' (DP170101997).</span></em></p>Analysis of tweets from the election campaign reveal two key trends: independents are organising, and embattled Liberal candidates are having to take the fight to their rivals.Axel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyDaniel Angus, Associate Professor in Digital Communication, Queensland University of TechnologyTimothy Graham, Senior lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1163602019-05-01T05:56:03Z2019-05-01T05:56:03ZShorten distances himself from Green overtures on climate policy<p>Bill Shorten has rebuffed overtures by the Greens leader Richard Di Natale to work closely with a Labor government to promote a strong policy on climate.</p>
<p>Shorten accused the Greens of “trailing their coat and saying, ‘Look at me’”.</p>
<p>“The fact of the matter is that if we get elected we’ll be making decisions in a Labor cabinet and the decisions will be made by members of parliament of the Labor party,” Shorten said, in anticipation of Di Natale’s Wednesday address to the National Press Club.</p>
<p>“What we will do is we will implement the policies we’ve put forward,” Shorten said.</p>
<p>In fact a Labor government, which would be in a minority in the Senate, would probably have to negotiate with the Greens to get its climate policy through the Senate.</p>
<p>After the backlash against the formal Labor-Greens alliance under the Gillard government – in which the two parties worked in conjunction on the carbon pricing scheme – Shorten is anxious to keep maximum distance between the ALP and the minor party.</p>
<p>For its part the government paints Labor and the Greens as “joined at the hip”. Scott Morrison said on Wednesday: “We know who holds the chain – if it’s not the Greens it’s the militant unions”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-major-parties-indigenous-health-election-commitments-stack-up-115714">How the major parties’ Indigenous health election commitments stack up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In his Press Club appearance Di Natale ran a double line – attacking Labor policies on climate and the environment as inadequate, while stressing the need for co-operation in government.</p>
<p>The Greens were “deeply concerned that Labor has taken a weaker climate policy in 2019 than what they proposed in 2016, which was weaker still than what they took to the 2013 election”.</p>
<p>Di Natale said he was not seeking a formal alliance between the Greens and Labor as in 2010 – rather “we want to work constructively. We want to negotiate”.</p>
<p>He was “not surprised to hear the response from Bill Shorten today […] we hear that time and time again in the lead-up to an election.</p>
<p>"But we need the Greens in the Senate working with the Labor party and other voices to ensure that the policy that’s delivered meets the science and that is up to the challenge of transitioning our economy”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-influence-will-independents-and-minor-parties-have-this-election-please-explain-115913">How much influence will independents and minor parties have this election? Please explain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A Shorten government “will have two pathways open to them after the election, ” he said.</p>
<p>“They can either pursue a climate and energy policy designed to pass through a divided Coalition party room […] or they can negotiate a comprehensive response, based on science, with the Greens.</p>
<p>"My message to Bill Shorten is that you can’t achieve bipartisanship with the Liberals because they can’t even agree among themselves,” he said.</p>
<p>“The decision for Bill Shorten is whether he follows the take-it-or-leave-it approach of Kevin Rudd in 2009, or negotiates with the Greens, just like Julia Gillard did in 2011, to deliver a climate policy that gives future generations a chance”.</p>
<p>Di Natale would not be drawn on what approach the Greens would take if negotiating climate policy with Labor. “The key part of any negotiation is not to conduct it publicly through the media.”</p>
<p>The Greens leader defended his party against criticism over its refusal to support the Rudd government’s scheme, saying Rudd’s policy “would have locked in failure”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-mis-trust-why-this-election-is-posing-problems-for-the-media-116142">A matter of (mis)trust: why this election is posing problems for the media</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile a number of independent MPs and candidates have signed a statement initiated by the Australian Conservation Foundation committing, if elected, to work with each other and other parliamentarians to promote initiatives on climate.</p>
<p>“We recognise that to be a true servant of our communities and our national parliament, we must demonstrate and deliver strong leadership on climate change,” they say.</p>
<p>Among the objectives they commit to are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>opposing the development of the Adani mine</p></li>
<li><p>ensuring Kyoto Protocol carryover credits are not used to meet Australia’s 2030 emissions education target</p></li>
<li><p>developing a roadmap to power Australia from 100% renewable energy, aiming to achieve at least 50% by 2030</p></li>
<li><p>opposing attempts to commit public money to new or existing coal or other fossil fuel operations, including any government underwriting of coal or gas power plants.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Those signing the statement are Andrew Wilkie, member for Clark; Kerryn Phelps, member for Wentworth; Julia Banks, member for Chisholm who is running as an independent candidate in Flinders; Dr Helen Haines, independent candidate for Indi; Zali Steggall, independent candidate for Warringah; Rob Oakeshott, independent candidate for Cowper, and Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After the backlash against the formal Labor-Greens alliance under the Gillard government, Shorten is anxious to keep maximum distance between the ALP and the minor party.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807472017-07-10T06:27:12Z2017-07-10T06:27:12ZDisagreement within the Greens shows the price of doing politics differently<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177466/original/file-20170710-6227-48vkc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lee Rhiannon and every other federal Greens MP have the right to dissent on matters of policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the weekend, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/nsw-greens-demand-lee-rhiannon-be-fully-reinstated-to-party-room">Greens New South Wales</a> declared that the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-greens-set-for-lee-rhiannon-lovein-following-suspension-20170707-gx6l3s.html">partial suspension</a> of senator Lee Rhiannon from certain federal partyroom discussions was “unconstitutional”. The state party requested Rhiannon be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/nsw-greens-demand-lee-rhiannon-be-fully-reinstated-to-party-room">“fully reinstated without restriction”</a>.</p>
<p>Federal Greens MPs were ultimately discomforted by their decision to exclude Rhiannon, and were at pains to point out that the action was designed to tackle <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lee-rhiannon-suspended-from-greens-party-room-pending-reform-in-nsw-20170628-gx05zq">“a structural issue”</a> and ensure the partyroom had <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lee-rhiannon-suspended-from-greens-party-room-pending-reform-in-nsw-20170628-gx05zq">“faith and trust”</a> in party processes. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://greens.org.au/news/national/statement-party-room">other resolution</a> passed by the partyroom in that same session implored the National Council – the party’s highest decision-making body – to work with Greens NSW to end the practice of binding its MPs, even if its vote was against that of the federal partyroom.</p>
<p>Rhiannon expressed her disappointment with the outcome, and went further <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-party-room-greens-have-a-bigger-agenda-im-just-road-kill-20170702-gx2zx0.html">to suggest</a> that the partyroom’s decision masked a more insidious agenda, which was to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… reduce the democratic power of members in the Greens NSW. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>For all concerned, this matter turns on a fundamental disagreement over process and principle.</p>
<h2>Debates over decision-making</h2>
<p>For the Greens’ federal parliamentary leader, Richard Di Natale, the NSW practice of binding its MPs restricts the work of the national party room. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/temporary-party-room-meetings-ban-unconstitutional-rhiannon/8662968">He said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If each state binds their senator we won’t have an Australian Greens party room, we’d have a collection of independent states arriving at independent decisions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In contrast, the NSW party rejects the idea that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/totally-unaccountable-leaked-greens-emails-shine-light-on-faceless-powerbrokers-20170701-gx2jm4.html">“all wisdom lies with MPs”</a>. Its view is that policies adopted by members following a process of consensus decision-making should dictate the voting behaviour of the party’s elected MPs in parliament.</p>
<p>Putting aside the matter of personalities and the ethics surrounding the conduct of those involved, to what extent does this incident reflect deep-seated ideological difference over the practice of binding MPs?</p>
<p>The practice of binding elected officials under the <a href="https://nsw.greens.org.au/structure-constitution">Greens NSW Constitution</a> can be located in three main sections:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Section 12.1: The actions, activities and public statements of all members of The Greens NSW who are elected to public office shall be consistent with the charter, constitutions, policies and decisions of the party.</p>
<p>Section 12.6: Elected representatives shall consult with the delegates council regarding positions to be taken in their legislative activity. </p>
<p>Section 13.6: … elected representatives … shall express public opinions and vote in public fora in accordance with the charter of the Australian Greens and ratified policies of the Australian Greens and The Greens NSW, where a party policy exists. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Greens NSW Constitution does not appear to include a reference to MPs having the right to exercise a conscience vote.</p>
<p>By contrast, other members of the Greens’ national partyroom are not bound by similar requirements under their state party constitutions. MPs are permitted to exercise a conscience vote. Otherwise, the partyroom operates according to the principles of consensus decision-making. </p>
<p>This process requires participants to reach common agreement on matters. If such agreement cannot be reached, a vote may be taken to determine the outcome. </p>
<h2>Intra-party difference</h2>
<p>Consensus decision-making is fundamental to the decision-making practices of the Greens, including the NSW branch and the federal partyroom. In this regard, the two bodies are identical. However, the difference over process turns on three matters:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>To whom or what are MPs ultimately accountable: the federal partyroom or their state organisation?</p></li>
<li><p>Which level of decision-making should be allocated priority over matters of policy: the partyroom or the state organisation?</p></li>
<li><p>Is party unity more important than the persistence of diversity in state organisational decision-making practices?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are not inconsequential points of difference – and they should not be dismissed lightly. But would disagreement over schools funding – the policy issue that ostensibly ignited this affair – have been avoided if Greens NSW did not bind Rhiannon? The answer is probably no. </p>
<p>The federal partyroom rules allow MPs to exercise a conscience vote. Rhiannon – and every other member of the partyroom, for that matter – have the right to dissent on matters of policy. </p>
<p>To what extent would Rhiannon’s position have been viewed differently had she exercised a conscience vote, instead of invoking a constitutionally mandated obligation to dissent?</p>
<p>The current situation owes as much to politics as it does any deep unworkable ideological schism within the Greens. While binding might well complicate the partyroom’s efforts to present a united front in relation to legislative negotiations some of the time, the NSW practice seems to do so rarely. </p>
<p>And when it does, this might just be the price of doing politics differently.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For all concerned, the imbroglio surrounding Lee Rhiannon and her Greens colleagues turns on a fundamental disagreement over process and principle.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/613732016-07-08T03:28:32Z2016-07-08T03:28:32ZElection 2016 reveals the end of the rusted-on voter and the death of the two-party system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129770/original/image-20160708-30690-c2bvqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens leader Richard Di Natale (2L) celebrates on election night.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mal Fairclough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull need rely upon several independent MPs to form government this will be no more than a recognition of electoral realities. Over the past 20 years there has been a steady decline in support for the major parties, neither of which is able to win a majority of support in its own right.</p>
<p>Between them the Coalition parties <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">won</a> just over 42% of primary votes, Labor just over 35%. That Labor seemed to peg level with the government is due to a heavy flow of preferences from the nearly 10% of Greens votes. This is now established as a consistent factor in national elections.</p>
<p>As long as preferences flow to the two major parties the current system can provide majority governments. But the past few elections have shown the capacity of strong locally based independents to defeat the major parties. Interestingly they come from a range of electorates, from inner-city Hobart (<a href="http://andrewwilkie.org/">Andrew Wilkie</a>) to outback Queensland (<a href="http://www.bobkatter.com.au/">Bob Katter</a>).</p>
<p>This year’s results also suggest that the Greens in Victoria and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia might increase their representation by several seats at the next poll. The increased number of independents in the Senate is partly due to Turnbull’s remarkably ill-judged decision to force a double-dissolution election. But even in a half-Senate election, <a href="http://www.onenation.com.au/">Pauline Hanson</a>, <a href="https://nxt.org.au/">Nick Xenophon</a> and <a href="http://www.justiceparty.com.au/">Derryn Hinch</a> would probably have been elected.</p>
<p>Two overlapping factors are at play, neither of which is likely to reverse. The first is declining party loyalties: fewer people are developing lifelong political commitments as they still might do with football teams. This in turn is related to the fact that political divisions have become more complex, straddling both economic and social issues in ways that divide the major parties.</p>
<p>This is currently most apparent within the Liberals, where John Howard’s success in holding together social conservatives and economic liberals appears to be fraying. Of the current leadership only Julie Bishop seems to be able to straddle both camps. It is surprising she is not more often seen as a potential leader.</p>
<p>Thus the Liberals are challenged on the economic right by Liberal Democrats, while losing significant votes to a group of socially conservative Christian parties: Fred Nile’s <a href="http://www.cdp.org.au/">Christian Democrats</a>, and <a href="http://www.familyfirst.org.au/">Family First</a>, who may yet elect a senator. The rise of Hanson and NXT draws votes from all major parties through their ability to articulate the anger and frustration felt by the casualties of rapid social and economic change.</p>
<p>When backbenchers Cory Bernardi and George Christensen speak of a new conservative movement, it is unclear whether they wish to appeal to the disenfranchised on cultural or economic grounds. But they are moving into territory tilled by <a href="https://palmerunited.com/">Clive Palmer in 2013</a> and Hanson this year.</p>
<p>For Labor the decline is greater. In the past 25 years, Labor has only twice polled more than 40% of primary votes, and needs spend considerable resources to fight off the Greens in its once-safe inner city seats. It is heroic of Chris Bowen to proclaim, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/qanda-chris-bowen-sarah-hanson-young-discuss-power-sharing/7568992">as he did on Q&A following the election</a>, that Labor will govern alone. It is also somewhat arrogant for a party that can only attract just over one-third of first-preference votes.</p>
<p>Unlike either Hanson or Xenophon, the Greens have become an established party with sufficient strength to elect at least one senator in every state. Their primary vote seemed to stabilise this year at just under 10%, which was not sufficient to win more than Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne. However, there are now several seats where they are viable, including at least one Liberal seat (Higgins in Melbourne) and several (<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/bris/">Brisbane</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/">Melbourne Ports</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/rich/">Richmond</a>) that could become genuine three-way tussles.</p>
<p>In the short run, Labor will not wipe out the Greens, nor will the Greens replace Labor. It is in Labor’s interest to abandon the vitriol <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/paul-keating-launches-withering-attack-on-pathetic-greens-20160625-gprqr1.html">with which it attacked the Greens</a> in the campaign, and acknowledge that any future Labor government will require close collaboration with the Greens, if not the formal arrangement accepted by Julia Gillard. When Labor politicians attack the Greens in the language of the Murdoch press they offend many of their own supporters.</p>
<p>Preferential voting was introduced into Australia to allow what have become the Liberal and National parties to compete for votes without losing seats to Labor. It is a much fairer system than the first-past-the-post used in the UK and the US, but it is becoming less representative as support for the major parties erodes.</p>
<p>As Jim Middleton <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/topic/politics/2016/04/09/malcom-turnbulls-challenge-real-voting-reform/14601240003104">has argued</a> it may be time to look seriously at New Zealand’s model of proportional representation, which has provided a better reflection of the popular will and more stable governments than has become the case in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Altman is co-editor of How to Vote Progressive in Australia: Labor or Green? He endorsed several Greens candidates in the 2016 campaign.</span></em></p>With voters turning away from the two major parties and towards the Greens and micro-parties, it may be time to rethink our entire electoral system.Dennis Altman, Professorial Fellow in Human Security, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596582016-06-22T20:11:59Z2016-06-22T20:11:59ZThe sound of silence: why has the environment vanished from election politics?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127685/original/image-20160622-19767-k2xzs3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's quiet out there, too quiet. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Outback image from wwww.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s a deafening silence in the ongoing Australian election campaign over the environment. Polling shows <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-more-australians-want-climate-action-now-than-before-the-carbon-tax-61077">increasing public support</a> for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/22/climate-change-poll-finds-support-for-strong-action-at-highest-level-since-2008">greater action on climate change</a> but debate has been mostly missing. </p>
<p>And despite some <a href="https://theconversation.com/policycheck-what-are-the-parties-really-offering-to-save-the-great-barrier-reef-60927">blows traded over the Great Barrier Reef</a>, the wider environment has made <a href="https://theconversation.com/nature-is-neglected-in-this-election-campaign-at-its-and-our-own-peril-56445">almost no appearance</a>. But this hasn’t always been the case.</p>
<p>From the origins of the environmental movement in the 1970s to the 2007 climate change election that toppled Liberal prime minister John Howard, the environment has been a key battleground, and it could become one again. </p>
<h2>Green origins</h2>
<p>The environment first emerged as a voting platform in the 1970s, in the wake of controversial proposals to dam Lake Pedder. The United Tasmania Group - a precursor to the Australian Greens party - was formed to oppose the project. </p>
<p>Were it not for the <a href="http://www.realtimearts.net/article/issue88/9221">mysterious disappearance of a plane carrying environmental activist Brenda Hean</a> in September 1972, the election that brought us Labor prime minister Gough Whitlam might have had more of a green tinge. Hean’s plan was to sky-write “Save Lake Pedder” over Canberra. </p>
<p>According to [Hugh Morgan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Morgan_(businessman) - former president of the Minerals Council, the Business Council, and the climate-denying <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavoisier_Group">Lavoisier Group</a> - the first indication that environmentalism had arrived as a major political force in Australia was the Whitlam Labor Party caucus’s 1975 debate over uranium mining and nuclear power. </p>
<p>But it was not until the 1983 election, with incumbent Liberal prime minister Malcolm Fraser facing off against Labor leader Bob Hawke, that the environment became politically salient with another Tasmanian dam.</p>
<p>After losing the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Pedder">Lake Pedder</a> battle in 1972, the green campaigners were older, wiser and more determined in their fight to stop the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_Dam_controversy">Franklin dam</a>.</p>
<p>Fraser offered the Tasmanian government a A$500m coal-fired power station instead of the dam, but was <a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1301&dat=19830120&id=AIZWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=puYDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5919,5184291&hl=en">rejected</a>. </p>
<p>Labor said it would use federal powers to forbid the dam if elected. It did so, and won the inevitable <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_v_Tasmania">High Court case</a>. </p>
<p>Hawke and Paul Keating, prime minister from 1991, prioritised financial and political changes (bringing down tariffs, floating the dollar) over environmental challenges. However, the issues of logging and uranium wouldn’t go away, and were joined first by ozone and then carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>In 1984, with a tight election looming, Hawke failed to make the Queensland government’s <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/10883477">refusal to nominate forests for World Heritage listing</a> an issue.</p>
<p>Labor won the 1987 and 1990 elections, and <a href="http://www.bmartin.cc/pubs/90psa1/Doyle.pdf">environmentalists’ preferences</a> helped them squeak home on both occasions. Climate change hardly rated a mention. </p>
<h2>Conned by greenies?</h2>
<p>With their rising power, both sides of politics initially courted green voters. But this tactic quickly fell out of favour, <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/academic-professional/politics-government/The-End-of-Certainty-Paul-Kelly-9781741754988">first with the Liberals</a> and <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/122308680?browse=ndp%3Abrowse%2Ftitle%2FC%2Ftitle%2F11%2F199%2F1990%2F09%2F04%2Fpage%2F12995911%2Farticle%2F122308680">then with Labor</a>. In 1992 the Greens, despairing of being able to influence either of the big parties, <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/1999/01/01/an-early-history-of-the-greens.html">formed their own</a>.</p>
<p>By late 1992, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644019408414128#.Vz6EcpN97R0">Keating was lashing out at green groups</a>, saying: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>…the green movement was extremist and not listened to any more … The environmental lobbies have no moral lien over the environment. The issue belongs to the Government, to the nation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s perhaps unsurprising then that, according to <a href="http://www.auspsa.org.au/sites/default/files/environmental_policy_joan_staples.pdf">a source of scholar Joan Staples</a>, Keating reportedly walked into an election planning meeting and announced that “the environment will NOT be one of the priority issues in this election.”</p>
<p>A “bomb” planted on a railway line in northwest Tasmania two days before the 1993 federal election suggested otherwise (it didn’t have a detonator). While media and politician accused “ecoterrorists”; Bob Brown suggested at the time and since that it was <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2010/03/17/tasmania-beware-the-eco-terrorism-dirty-tricks-brigade/">a setup to thwart public favour for the Greens</a>. </p>
<p>Nothing changed under the next three year’s of Keating’s government. <a href="http://www.auspsa.org.au/sites/default/files/environmental_policy_joan_staples.pdf">Another source of Joan Staples</a> recalled that when Keating met green groups before the 1996 election, he walked into the meeting room and pointed at each representative, saying: “Don’t like you. Don’t like you. Don’t know who you are. Don’t like you. She’s alright.”</p>
<p>Despite climbing greenhouse emissions and international pressure on Australia, the environment didn’t feature in the 1998 or 2001 elections, and made only a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090215122047/http://www.abc.net.au:80/news/newsitems/200410/s1219546.htm">small but perhaps crucial appearance in 2004</a> around forestry. </p>
<h2>The greatest moral challenge</h2>
<p>Liberal prime minister John Howard was unable to ignore the environment three years later. Upon becoming opposition leader in late 2006, Kevin Rudd made climate change not just an issue but “the greatest moral challenge of our generation”. </p>
<p>Howard, who had already tried to keep climate change in a box by <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/we-want-big-role-in-nuclear-club-howard/2006/05/13/1146940775888.html">reaching for the nuclear option</a>, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia-Pacific_Partnership_on_Clean_Development_and_Climate">Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate</a> and even emissions trading, had no effective reply. </p>
<p>The 2007 federal election, at which Howard became only the second sitting prime minster to lose his seat, has been called, with some justification, “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644010802065815">the first climate change election</a>”.</p>
<p>Despite the blood and ink spilt over climate change, it was strangely absent from the 2010 campaign, from which Labor prime minister Julia Gillard eventually emerged victorious. As <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/video/2016/march/29/1459206554/breaking-impasse-peter-doherty-richard-denniss-laura-tingle-global">Laura Tingle has said</a> “it [climate change] wasn’t really something that ever really featured … it just wasn’t there”.</p>
<p>In truth, Gillard had floated a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10361146.2013.786675">much-derided Citizen’s Assembly</a> ahead of the election. Three years later, despite opposition leader Tony Abbott proclaiming the 2013 poll as a carbon tax referendum, <a href="http://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:26964">researcher Myra Gurney has found climate change actually rated surprisingly few mentions</a>.</p>
<h2>Why the silence?</h2>
<p>Besides international positions on climate change, there are any number of local environmental flashpoints that could blow up any day – the Carmichael mine, fracking in New South Wales, or something currently regarded as trivial.<br>
“The environment” has been around as political issue for more than 30 years, and isn’t going to go away, as the environmental and social stresses grow, and the institutional responses lead to “<a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/management/business-ethics/climate-change-capitalism-and-corporations-processes-creative-self-destruction?format=PB">creative self-destruction</a>”.</p>
<p>No doubt both parties will fall over themselves to spruik their support for renewable energy, which is akin to motherhood and apple pie. </p>
<p>What is striking about the history of climate change and federal politics is just how quiet politicians become once they get into campaign mode and face scrutiny for the specifics of their policy proposals. </p>
<p>Perhaps they simply have no answers to awkward questions of what we do to replace our fossil fuel infrastructure and the power of the fossil fuel lobby.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59658/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s been a deafening silence in recent Australian elections over the environment. But it hasn’t always been the case.Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602562016-06-06T04:39:21Z2016-06-06T04:39:21ZElection FactCheck: could a vote among under 30s in Australia possibly deliver a Greens prime minister?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124708/original/image-20160601-1425-141hay7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Was Richard Di Natale right about voting intentions among under 30s?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9:35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Y9fXRjzhzg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, May 30, 2016. Watch from 2:24 for the statement being fact checked.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>If there was a vote amongst people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. – Greens leader Richard Di Natale, speaking on Q&A, May 30, 2016.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people aged under 30 in Australia, there would possibly be a Greens prime minister.</p>
<p>Is he right?</p>
<h2>Checking the poll data</h2>
<p>Asked for a source to back up Di Natale’s statement on Q&A, a spokeswoman said</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Published Ipsos polling regularly shows our vote matching it with the other parties amongst young voters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The spokeswoman pointed to two Fairfax Ipsos polls released over the past few months: one <a href="http://ipsos.com.au/fairfax/turnbull-continues-to-haemorrhage-support/">from April</a> and another <a href="http://ipsos.com.au/fairfax/the-turnbull-honeymoon-fades-but-shorten-makes-little-progress/">from February</a>.</p>
<p>(You can view the Greens’ spokeswoman’s <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokeswoman-for-richard-di-natale-60544">full response to The Conversation here</a>.)</p>
<p>Those April and February poll results are shown below in tweets from poll-watcher <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes">Ghost Who Votes</a>.</p>
<p>The April poll did show the Greens doing well among 18-24 year olds, scoring 32% of the vote in this age group. Labor, in this poll, had 33%.</p>
<p>However, these polls have a total sample of about 1,400, and the 18-24 subset is very small. In any case, Di Natale’s claim was about those <em>under 30</em>, not under 25. </p>
<p>In the 25-39 year old range in the April poll cited by Di Natale’s spokeswoman, the Greens vote is 17%.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"721833060640038912"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"698980485880373248"}"></div></p>
<p>However, subsequent poll data from both Fairfax-Ipsos and Newspoll (some of which was released before and some just after this episode of Q&A aired) indicates that Di Natale has exaggerated the level of support for the Greens among younger voters. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci8BhyYUgAEp9LI.jpg">May 17-19 Fairfax-Ipsos</a> poll has a high Greens vote (14%) relative to other polls, but Labor is clearly in first place among young voters, with the Coalition second and the Greens a distant third. </p>
<p>Even among 18-24 year olds, the Greens have only 25% in the May 17-19 Fairfax-Ipsos poll (below), with Labor on 36% and the Coalition 32%.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"733806945904140288"}"></div></p>
<p>April-May <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2016/05/30/1227888/172704-160531analysis.pdf">Newspoll breakdowns</a> show the same thing; the Greens in Newspoll are at only 16% among 18-34 year olds, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition 33%.</p>
<p>A June poll by Fairfax Ipsos (released <em>after</em> Di Natale made the statement on Q&A) puts support for the Greens among 18-24 year olds at 27%.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"738867732968443904"}"></div></p>
<p>For the Greens to be in an election-winning position among the under 30s, they would need to be ahead of Labor. But both Ipsos and Newspoll have Labor ahead of the Greens among young voters.</p>
<h2>Using Newspoll data to calculate Greens support among under 30s</h2>
<p>The Ipsos breakdowns are for only one poll, with a total sample of 1,500. The Newspoll breakdowns have a much larger total sample of over 6,800. Newspoll has the Greens at 16% for the 18–34 age group.</p>
<p>However, Di Natale’s claim relates to those below 30 (that is, the 18–29 group). We cannot directly calculate the Greens percentage for 18–29 year olds, but we can assume a Greens percentage for 30–34 year olds, and calculate the 18–29 vote from
that assumption.</p>
<p>There are 17 total years in the 18–34 range. I have assumed that any age is as
likely to be interviewed as any other within that group. There are then 12
years in the 18–29 group, and 5 in the 30–34 group.</p>
<p>Let <em>x</em> be the Greens percent among 18–29 year olds, and <em>y</em> be the Greens
percent among 30–34 year olds. We know that the overall figure must sum to
16%.</p>
<p><em>x</em> is multiplied by (12/17), and <em>y</em> by (5/17) to get the correct weights
of these percentages.</p>
<p>We have:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124910/original/image-20160602-1951-11kpebx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rearranging to make <em>x</em> the subject gives:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/124911/original/image-20160602-9732-159wtso.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the highly unrealistic case that the Greens have zero support among those
aged 30–34, their support among 18–29 year olds would still only be 23%. </p>
<p>A more realistic figure is that the Greens have 10% support among those aged
30–34. If that is used, they have 19% among those aged 18–29.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Given the data above on the latest poll numbers, Richard Di Natale’s claim that “if there was a vote amongst people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister” is exaggerated. <strong>– Adrian Beaumont</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Editor’s note to readers:</strong> The Conversation’s <a href="http://www.poynter.org/2016/should-journalists-outsource-fact-checking-to-academics/391230/">standard FactCheck process</a> is to ask an academic expert to test claims, and then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. But this FactCheck involved both political and mathematical calculations. So in the interests of fairness and accuracy, we sought two blind reviews of this verdict: one from a political lecturer, the other from a mathematician.</em></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>Senator Di Natale has a highly idiosyncratic reading of the polls, to say the least.</p>
<p>If going by the numbers supplied by the Greens spokesperson, the Greens sit on 32% behind Labor on 33% for the 18-24. </p>
<p>Senator Di Natale’s must assume either (1) the Greens were in a 1% range of beating Labor in a first-past-the-post (or plurality) fight; or (2) that Liberals of this age group would tend to send their preferences to the Greens rather than to Labor. We don’t have a first-past-the-post system (which Di Natale knows).</p>
<p>So presumably, he was thinking Liberal preferences would break his way. But many Liberals are very antagonistic to preferencing the Greens over Labor. </p>
<p>The Greens have <a href="http://greens.org.au/no-deal">denied</a> existence of a preference deal with the Liberals and there’s no hard evidence of a Liberal decision across the nation to preference the Greens over Labor.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green has <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/05/liberal-preferences-and-green-prospects-at-the-2016-election.html">shown</a> that Liberal preferences went 67% to Labor and only 33% to the Greens at the 2013 election. </p>
<p>Overall, my argument concurs with that of the fact checker. Di Natale’s statement is unrealistic. <strong>– Mark Rolfe</strong></p>
<hr>
<p>I have reviewed the article and I find the author’s conclusions to be reasonably supported by available evidence. The calculations assume equal voter population for each year of age. I have performed my own calculations using Australian Bureau of Statistics population data and this assumption seems reasonable. </p>
<p>Even if we do not assume equal population size for each year of age, the calculations change very little. I would also add the statement cannot be fully confirmed or refuted as there is no data solely for 18-29 year old voters, although this analysis suggests confirmation is unlikely. <strong>– Jake Olivier</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout">Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. What do the polls say?Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594722016-05-18T19:44:42Z2016-05-18T19:44:42ZSeats on the line as Labor and the Greens do a difficult preference dance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122931/original/image-20160518-9509-ktujll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Greens leader Richard Di Natale (right) and Greens candidate for Grayndler Jim Casey are eyeing off the inner-Sydney seat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the 2007 election, Kevin Rudd vowed to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/mind-game-delivers-a-win-for-pm-20090625-cy56.html">“mess” with John Howard’s mind</a>. He did and it worked.</p>
<p>Now, the government is trying to repeat the trick with Bill Shorten, and the Greens are their handmaidens. Talk of preference deals is the Coalition’s chief weapon, but so is Labor division over border protection, propaganda about a Labor-Green coalition, and Green opportunism on penalty rates.</p>
<p>At immediate risk for Labor are a number of inner-city seats, especially in Melbourne. The danger for the Greens are unintended consequences flowing from their flirtation with preference deals with the Coalition. It might just work too well, not merely damaging Labor, but also reducing the Greens’ overall influence and impact in the next parliament.</p>
<p>The Greens hold the seat of Melbourne courtesy of Liberal preferences in 2010 and incumbency at the last election. The Labor seats of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/batm/">Batman</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/will/">Wills</a>, where Labor’s vote fell below 50% at the 2013 election, are at serious risk of following the same pattern on July 2 if the Liberals direct preferences to the Greens.</p>
<p>According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Greens could not win either seat without Liberal preferences – unless their primary vote overtakes Labor’s.</p>
<p>That is possible, but unlikely. It is even less likely in another seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/gray/">Grayndler</a> in Sydney, held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/">Melbourne Ports</a> is another interesting but different case. Labor’s Michael Danby was outpolled by the Liberals at the last election, but retained the seat on the back of Green preferences. According to Green, a 6% switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens would see the seat fall to the Greens – or the Liberals, depending on who preferences whom.</p>
<p>Just to be clear, no Liberal seats are at risk. The Coalition gains by putting Labor under pressure in seats it has held for decades, in some cases since federation. Liberal preferences would hand Batman and Wills to the Greens.</p>
<p>According to Liberal strategists, the threat to Labor in those two seats is already forcing them to commit hundreds of thousands of dollars to defend a pair of electorates it could once take for granted. That means less money to spend on seats Labor needs to win if it is to return to government.</p>
<p>This is already an uphill task, given that Labor needs to gain 20 seats nationwide to topple a first-term government – a feat not achieved federally since 1931. Given the current state of the polls, the best Labor can expect is another hung parliament. But that prospect creates tactical problems for Shorten, not the Coalition.</p>
<p>First, it would mean that whoever emerged as prime minister would have to assure the governor-general that he had the confidence of the House of Representatives. Shorten has recoiled from the Greens’ suggestions of another alliance, like that negotiated by Julia Gillard, like Dracula from a stake.</p>
<p>However, talk of any kind of agreement to guarantee passage of money bills is sufficient for the Coalition to raise the spectre of the last hung parliament with the memory of Gillard and Bob Brown joined at the hip, surrounded by rancour and dysfunction.</p>
<p>Second, it makes Labor look more left-wing than Shorten would like, as does mere talk of Labor being dependent on Green preferences to hold Batman, Wills and Grayndler among others.</p>
<p>The votes Shorten needs to attract are in the centre, winning primary votes at the expense of the Coalition. He cannot win more votes on the left. The less centrist his appeal, the fewer votes he will win from the government.</p>
<p>Shorten is caught in a vice between Liberal claims that he is beholden to the Greens and Green suggestions that Labor has lost its moral compass. On that score, the Coalition has now produced dirt sheets on at least seven Labor candidates, quoting past statements opposing turnbacks and offshore processing of asylum seekers. Undoubtedly, we have not heard the end of this.</p>
<p>The government argues this shows what Labor really thinks; that a Shorten prime ministership would again see boatloads of asylum seekers making it to Australian waters. For Greens voters, it is a daily reminder of Labor’s lack of compassion.</p>
<p>It is a similar story with the Greens’ opportunism on weekend penalty rates. Shorten is pointing out, quite reasonably, that legislating for double time on Sundays – as Greens leader Richard Di Natale is proposing – could quite readily be undone by a Coalition government.</p>
<p>On the other hand Shorten is committing a Labor government to a submission to Fair Work Australia in support of maintaining penalty rates. That ought to have considerable influence over whatever decision the independent commission makes.</p>
<p>The Greens, however, depict themselves as the only friends the workers have left, and portray Shorten as betraying his union roots. Another win for the Coalition.</p>
<p>For all that, it is just possible that the Greens could play this game too successfully.</p>
<p>Changes to the Senate voting arrangements mean they will lose one or possibly two of their ten seats. On the other hand, rightist independent Nick Xenophon might just win four seats in South Australia. Family First’s Bob Day might retain his seat, as might the Liberal Democrats’ David Leyonhjelm. That would give the crossbench a more conservative tinge, reducing the power of the Greens.</p>
<p>In the lower house, competition with Labor might produce more Green MPs. But downward pressure on Labor’s vote nationally might ensure the Coalition’s majority.</p>
<p>In short, it could mean greater numbers for the Greens in the lower house, but less influence and fewer senators. This would in turn mean the continuation of Tony Abbott’s climate-change policy and pressure from the business community for further industrial relations changes, not just the abolition of penalty rates.</p>
<p>Careful what you wish for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Middleton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the election result almost certain to be close, preferencing will play a key role, leaving the progressive parties in particular in a difficult bind.Jim Middleton, Vice Chancellor's Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/580482016-05-10T20:20:02Z2016-05-10T20:20:02ZExperience and Di Natale position the Greens as a formidable election force<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121822/original/image-20160510-20616-vniauw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Backed by experience and a moderate leader in Richard Di Natale, the Greens are a force to be reckoned with in this election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sam Mooy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Late last year, federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale expressed his enthusiasm at the prospect of serving in a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/richard-di-natale-eyes-cabinet-post-in-future-laborgreens-government-as-malcolm-turnbull-brings-him-in-from-the-cold-20151022-gkfq7i.html#ixzz47pBvZgJp">federal Labor-Green coalition government</a>. This suggestion has, however, been <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-tell-him-hes-dreaming-bill-shorten-rules-out-laborgreens-coalition-20160509-goqdjj.html">firmly rejected</a> in recent days by Labor leader Bill Shorten. </p>
<p>But is Shorten unwise to rule out forming a coalition government with the Greens so early in the campaign?</p>
<p>There are four reasons why the Greens are shaping up to be a formidable force both during the campaign and once the outcome is eventually declared.</p>
<h2>Political ingenues no more</h2>
<p>The Greens are now well and truly part of the political furniture, with a presence at all levels in Australia politics for more than 30 years.</p>
<p>The party has 11 federal MPs, as well as an additional 23 MPs in most Australian parliaments, except Queensland and the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>This brings the Greens certain structural and institutional advantages going into this federal campaign.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>First, legislative office gives the party access to state-funded resources that are useful during an election campaign.</p></li>
<li><p>Second, it imbues the party with a measure of institutional legitimacy and standing in public debate.</p></li>
<li><p>Third, the Greens can point to a growing track record of influencing legislative outcomes, and experience in negotiating with governments.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Importantly, the Greens’ longevity has rendered them a more familiar and less threatening presence. This may make it difficult for their opponents to sustain claims that the party is inexperienced or unpredictable.</p>
<h2>Friends with benefits</h2>
<p>The Greens have been courting new friends among segments of the union movement – something many commentators once believed to be impossible.</p>
<p>These union allies are of practical and symbolic importance for the Greens. </p>
<p>In financial terms, union donations to the Greens totalled almost <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/alp-anger-over-unions-greens-shift/news-story/70a3e88d7ca47b97d3b6d4f3f8281499?memtype=anonymous">A$600,000</a> in 2013-14. While these amounts are modest compared to union donations to the ALP, they are of critical importance to an otherwise cash-strapped party. </p>
<p>In symbolic terms, union donations can be read as a sign of the party’s growing political acceptance by more traditional social democrats. While complex reasons underpin the decision on the part of unions to donate to the Greens, it nonetheless hints to an emerging rapprochement between the old and new left. </p>
<h2>The Shorten factor</h2>
<p>Labor has been struggling to rebuild its primary vote. While its difficulties in this regard are structural and sociological, they are also aggravated by Shorten’s unpopularity. </p>
<p>Shorten is not tracking favourably in opinion polls, even if <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Labor’s two-party-preferred vote</a> is promising. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/tag/bill-shorten">Essential polling</a>, Shorten’s disapproval rating continues to rise, from 27% in 2013 to 47% in March 2016. Over this same period of time, the proportion of voters who approve of Shorten has sunk from 31% to 27%. Meanwhile, the proportion of voters who are “undecided” or “don’t know” about Shorten has declined from 43% to 26%. </p>
<p>The problem for Labor is that studies suggest that public perception of the party leader is important to the outcome of an election.</p>
<p>A decline in Labor’s primary vote often translates into Green electoral gains. It is for this reason that the Greens are quietly optimistic about their prospects in some <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-the-eight-seats-richard-di-natale-plans-to-turn-green-by-2026-20160505-gomrrr.html#ixzz47pB7qAXD">Labor-held inner-metropolitan seats</a>. The Greens are targeting the Victorian electorates of Melbourne Ports, Batman and Wills. Similarly, the Western Australian seat of Fremantle and the seats of Grayndler and Sydney in New South Wales are also not entirely out of reach. </p>
<p>The Greens’ chances in these seats will be strengthened if the Liberals in Victoria and NSW proceed with plans to negotiate a “loose preference” arrangement with them. </p>
<p>While party stalwarts such as John Howard have warned against this, others, such as Victorian Liberal Party president <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-tensions-soar-over-talk-of-a-loose-arrangement-with-the-greens-20160416-go7w6m.html">Michael Kroger</a>, are supportive. Any residual opposition within the Liberals might be assuaged by a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/federal-election-2016-liberal-voters-support-greens-preference-deal/news-story/3c8875b6a5db2f6dd04a46f01682d44e">Newspoll survey</a> that revealed 47% of Coalition voters are “comfortable” with the Liberals directing preferences to the Greens.</p>
<h2>The Di Natale factor</h2>
<p>The fourth factor that should help the Greens is the ascension of Richard – I am not an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/never-say-never-skivvyswathed-richard-di-natale-open-to-coalition-with-the-liberal-party-20160308-gne4vu.html">“ideologue”</a> – Di Natale to the leadership.</p>
<p>Di Natale casts a very different shadow from that of his predecessors. His political journey was different from that of former leaders Bob Brown and Christine Milne. </p>
<p>Di Natale appears to have been politicised by social justice issues rather than strictly environmental concerns. He also much more closely resembles an important segment of the Greens base in his style, manner, beliefs and approach. Like many Green voters, he is a well-educated, white-collar professional drawn from the caring/welfare sectors.</p>
<p>Di Natale has sought to re-position the Greens as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-greens-leader-wants-to-send-a-message-to-those-with-mainstream-values-41370">mainstream</a> progressive party. This is reflected in his policies, which remain true to the party’s core beliefs while widening the net to draw in other constituencies. </p>
<p>The Greens remain staunchly opposed to offshore processing, and continue to advocate for pricing carbon pollution and legalising same-sex marriage. At the same time, policies such as the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/27/greens-call-for-buffett-rule-to-prevent-wealthy-abusing-tax-deductions">“Buffett rule”</a>, which seek to limit the amount of deductions high-income earners can claim, are likely to offend only those who earn more than $185,000 a year. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-plan-to-curtail-negative-gearing-would-help-the-budget-cool-property-market-20150605-ghi3if">last year’s plan</a> to seek the removal of negative gearing was grandfathered so as to not alienate voters with existing investment properties. </p>
<p>Di Natale’s open appeals to policy moderation may just be enough to motivate those voters who have toyed with voting Green to finally do so.</p>
<h2>How might this play out for the Greens?</h2>
<p>While the Greens are not contenders for government in their own right, they are important players coming into this election. </p>
<p>At best, they may be needed by Labor to form government. At worst, they should continue to hold the balance of power in the Senate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Greens are set to play a significant role in the election campaign and the new parliament. They are looking for gains in the Senate and the House of Representatives.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/564342016-03-17T23:56:17Z2016-03-17T23:56:17ZDi Natale shows it’s possible to be Green and glam<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115527/original/image-20160317-30231-1c7kyvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Richard Di Natale is showing that being a Green doesn't mean forsaking an aspirational, middle-class lifestyle.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In appearing on <a href="http://www.gq.com.au/success/opinions/greens+leader+richard+di+natale+has+eyes+on+the+prize+never+say+never,42345">the cover of GQ magazine</a>, Greens leader Richard Di Natale is playing an old game. He is using a carefully contrived media presentation to send a strong message about an attribute of “Political Richard” that he wants voters to see and understand. </p>
<p>It does not imply that this is the whole of him or even a large part of him. It is an image showing the facet of his political persona that he calculates is important to project at this time.</p>
<p>It is a well-tried ploy.</p>
<p>When Julia Gillard, as prime minister, was accused in 2010 of lacking femininity, she appeared on the cover of that most iconic of publications directed at the respectable middle of Australian womanhood – <a href="http://www.aww.com.au/latest-news/in-the-mag/julia-gillard-the-prime-minister-on-dating-drugs-and-life-with-tim-1907">the Australian Women’s Weekly</a>. </p>
<p>And how was she presented? As winsomely feminine: cheekily flirtatious smile, engaging eyes, hair in a carefree fly-away style, the quintessence of seriously attractive womanhood. The message was clear: she has to be tough to do this gig, but underneath is a real woman to be admired by women and perhaps even desired by men. </p>
<p>Gillard <a href="http://www.aww.com.au/how-to/craft-ideas/knitting-feather-boas-and-more-weekly-moments-12733">returned to the magazine</a> in 2013. When the issue was released, the way she was presented – knitting, dog at feet – managed to attract <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-tries-to-knit-herself-out-of-the-poll-doldrums-20130624-2otl5.html">plenty of controversy</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.gq.com.au/?international">GQ</a> describes itself as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the definitive men’s magazine with style advice, tips, sexy women, entertainment and culture news.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In April last year, Malcolm Turnbull <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/primed-minister-malcolm-turnbull-appears-on-front-cover-of-gq-magazine-20150416-1mm9jr.html">made an appearance on its cover</a>, magnificently turned out in a blue-and-white striped shirt with white Oxford collar, rust-orange and white tie, and rich blue jacket. The steady gaze, mouth set in a firm line, left hand clenched across his midriff, suggested a man poised to take charge. </p>
<p>This was a portrait of power. And indeed the magazine labelled this as “The Power Issue”. The message was equally clear: this man is ready. He has a grip.</p>
<p>Di Natale has borrowed a page from this playbook. Having taken over leadership of the Greens from the somewhat ideologically rigid Christine Milne after <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-06/christine-milne-resigns/6448428">she resigned the position</a> ten months ago, Di Natale has made a virtue of presenting himself as the face of a newly pragmatic Greens party.</p>
<p>He has explicitly <a href="https://newmatilda.com/2015/05/06/im-not-ideologue-says-di-natale-he-takes-greens-leadership/">described himself</a> as “not an ideologue”, saying that if the policies are right, the politics will follow. </p>
<p>Emblematic of this is that the Greens have supported the Coalition government’s legislation to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4423761.htm">amend the voting laws</a> so as to wipe out microparties in the Senate. In the GQ interview Di Natale goes so far as to say that while an alliance with the Liberals generally would be most unlikely, he would “never say never”.</p>
<p>So here he is on the cover of GQ in a black turtleneck top, sharp charcoal-and-grey check trousers, fashionable black-rimmed glasses, the epitome of contemporary man’s sartorial severity.</p>
<p>For this he has been <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/robstott/16-things-richard-di-natale-looks-like-in-the-latest-gq#.kepJZrwVn">lampooned on social media</a>, being photoshopped into the Wiggles and into a James Bond pose. A (passable) likeness to the late boss of Apple, Steve Jobs, has also been pointed out.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"710409447659544576"}"></div></p>
<p>Who cares? The message from the image is clear: you don’t have to wear a hair shirt to be a Green. You can wear a Hugo Boss turtleneck. You can embrace the capitalist economy and be a Green. You can be a consumer at the luxury end of the market and still be a Green.</p>
<p>In other words, being a Green doesn’t mean forsaking an aspirational or middle-class lifestyle. You don’t have to get around in tree-hugging pullovers and anoraks. </p>
<p>It is a bold attempt to break the stereotype of the Greens as a fringe party that puts trees and animals ahead of human comfort and is out of touch with the world most people are interested in inhabiting.</p>
<p>It does not necessarily mean a break from Greens’ values, although this is where the risk lies, and where the media strategy will need to be managed over the medium term. </p>
<p>Ideological purists will want to add up the miles travelled by that fancy European clothing in finding its way onto Di Natale’s person. They will also question whether consumerism, especially at the luxury end of the market, is not in conflict with ideals of self-sufficiency and simplicity, which were the implicit messages conveyed by Di Natale’s predecessors – Bob Brown and Milne.</p>
<p>However, as Gough Whitlam famously said, only the impotent are pure. Di Natale’s is a message to the young(ish) progressive middle of Australian politics, where pragmatism and idealism mix.</p>
<p>His media strategists would be delighted at the exposure it has got on social media. That is where large segments of the target population gets its news and information, and they would calculate that a little harmless ridicule is a price worth paying.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Greens leader Richard Di Natale has copped a lot of flak on social media for his “black Wiggle” photoshoot, but he is simply broadening the idea of what it means to be Green.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.