tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/cathy-mcgowan-25695/articlesCathy McGowan – The Conversation2022-11-29T19:10:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920962022-11-29T19:10:39Z2022-11-29T19:10:39ZNetworks and money: the inside story of how the teals won Australia’s six richest electorates<p>For many voters despairing about the gridlock and lack of integrity in Australian politics in recent years, the success of the teal independents in the May 2022 federal election was an exhilarating moment. They won six formerly safe Liberal seats, returned four independents - Zali Steggall in Warringah, Helen Haines in Indi, Rebekah Sharkie in Mayo, and Andrew Wilkie in Clark - and sent David Pocock to the Senate. </p>
<p>The Victorian election last weekend was <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-teal-independents-be-disruptors-in-victorian-politics-191072">the first test</a> of whether the teals would have the same appeal in the states. Targeting Liberal electorates in a Labor-held state, three candidates ran a close second: Sophie Torney in Kew, Melissa Lowe in Hawthorn, and Kate Lardner in Mornington.</p>
<p>This near miss in Victoria can be attributed to a tight cap on funding, the absence of high-profile candidates, and the fact the Andrews Labor government, which was returned, was a different antagonist than <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-great-electoral-bungle-leaves-the-liberals-decimated-and-heading-in-the-wrong-direction-183596">Scott Morrison’s Coalition government</a>. Teals planning to run in the New South Wales election in March 2023 will have been watching closely.</p>
<p>The extraordinary success of the teals and other community independents at a federal level has been captured in three new books: <a href="https://www.hardiegrant.com/au/publishing/bookfinder/book/the-teal-revolution-by-margot-saville/9781743799307">The Teal Revolution</a>, by Margot Saville; <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Brook-Turner-9781761067976/">Independents Day</a>, by Brook Turner; and <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/the-big-teal/">The Big Teal</a>, by Simon Holmes à Court. </p>
<p>The three books provide an account of the teals’ campaigns in this historic election. As well as being compelling reads, their rich descriptions of the campaigns provide a blueprint for change that will inspire others to action. Australian politics might just be changed forever.</p>
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<p><em>Review: The Teal Revolution – Margot Saville (Hardie Grant); Independents Day – Brock Turner (Allen & Unwin); The Big Teal – Simon Holmes à Court (Monash University Publishing)</em></p>
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<h2>It’s the community, stupid</h2>
<p>The “teals”, Holmes à Court explains, was a term that emerged in the media in the weeks leading up to the election, because the phrase “community independent” was too unwieldy. Fair enough, but the shorthand gives a false impression of homogeneity, and downplays the fact that each candidate arose from separate grassroots community groups, all fed up with politics as usual. </p>
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<p>Saville and Turner provide detailed accounts of how each community group grew organically into extraordinarily successful campaigns, responding to local and universal concerns. Many of these campaigns began from the shared frustration of two or three well-connected, well-resourced neighbours utterly fed up with politics as usual. </p>
<p>Many took the name “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voices_groups_in_Australia">Voices of</a>”, building on the model devised by Cathy McGowan in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-who-do-indi-voters-trust-to-run-the-country-61222">Indi</a> in 2013. “Kitchen table” conversations were held in electorates around the country, awakening an enthusiasm for political engagement that had previously been suppressed by two-party dominance. </p>
<p>McGowan and Zali Steggall were the templates for the audacious vision, but just as important were the suite of independents who, over the past decade, have been able to exert their influence in parliament: Kerryn Phelps, Tony Windsor, Andrew Wilkie, Rebekah Sharkie and others. </p>
<p>The Grattan Institute report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/gridlock/">Gridlock</a>, on the policy impacts of two-party dominance, was another important impetus for action. The idea driving these community campaigns was not that independents could make a difference, but that they were the only way to make a difference. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">The big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote</a>
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<h2>Enter the candidates</h2>
<p>Mostly, the candidates themselves did not drive their grassroots campaigns, but were actually selected by them. I was surprised how intentional this selection was. In 2018, for example, a marketing company inspired by the “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/grassroots-tony-abbott-warringah-election-independent-20181222-p50nvo.html">Vote Tony Out</a>” group in Warringah came up with a list of characteristics for a successful candidate in that electorate. </p>
<p>Turner reports that she needed to be female, with a name as memorable as Tony Abbott’s; an athlete, preferably who has represented Australia at an international level; and </p>
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<p>articulate, intelligent, respected within the community, and to have lived locally for a long time. Into that frame walked <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-loss-in-warringah-shows-voters-rejecting-an-out-of-touch-candidate-and-a-nasty-style-of-politics-117379">Zali Steggall</a>.</p>
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<p>In 2021, several community groups conducted similar data-driven scouting exercises, but most candidates stepped forward after prompting by friends or networks. The mixed levels of enthusiasm revealed a lot about each candidate’s character. </p>
<p>Kylea Tink, for example, was first off the block in North Sydney, putting herself forward before “Voices of North Sydney” had taken off. Zoe Daniel’s friend Angela Pippos put Daniel’s name forward to the “Voices for Goldstein” group. Monique Ryan answered a full-page ad in The Age. Allegra Spender, the youngest of the cohort – with three young children, and perhaps the best insight into the demands of parliamentary life – took the most convincing. </p>
<p>They have not risen through the ranks of party politics, yet as highly accomplished women, they bring to parliament a full suite of skills and experience from their careers. As independents without the balance of power, there is a hard ceiling to what they can achieve personally. </p>
<p>They can be loudspeakers for their communities and shape the policy agenda, especially on climate, gender equity and political integrity, for which they have a mandate. Alongside the Greens, they strengthen the progressive end of the policy debate and provide a counterbalance to the hard right of the Coalition. Yet, they cannot aim to be a minister or hold real decision-making power. </p>
<p>Still, their influence is likely to have an impact in two main ways: by changing the tone of parliament, and by proving a model for reinvigorating Australians’ engagement in politics. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-teal-independents-want-to-hold-government-to-account-that-starts-with-high-quality-information-184559">The teal independents want to hold government to account. That starts with high-quality information</a>
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<h2>A grassroots campaign, or revolution of the wealthy?</h2>
<p>The prominent role of <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-simon-holmes-a-court-on-community-independents-and-two-state-elections-190248">Simon Holmes à Court</a> and his organisation Climate 200 associates these community candidates with great wealth. He is, after all, the son of Australia’s first billionaire (although, as he quips in The Big Teal, this media tagline ignores the great influence of his mother, the extraordinary Janet Holmes à Court). </p>
<p>Clearly, the early and substantial investment from <a href="https://www.climate200.com.au/">Climate 200</a>, a donor network, helped raise the dough for 22 community campaigns around Australia, and it is quite possible that the teals wouldn’t have succeeded without it. His high profile, and willingness to take the stage to speak about the movement, is controversial among many in the movement.</p>
<p>Holmes à Court is not the only rich person in this story – in fact, Turner and Saville’s books read at times like roll-calls of wealthy, well-connected people. The cast of actors include chief executives, bankers, barristers, marketing experts, IT specialists, chief financial officers, engineers and medical specialists. </p>
<p>The most influential of those behind the scenes of the community campaigns were at a stage in their lives where they were able to pivot to a “third career”, in which they could focus their skills and resources to make political history.</p>
<p>Many were sufficiently well-off to invest $50,000 to kickstart a campaign, with a promise to double if needed, and could put their lives on hold for up to six months to run campaigns. Both Saville and Turner describe this milieu with an amusing (if somewhat gossipy) touch, dropping details of the famous art owned by one, the sale price of the harbourside mansion of another. </p>
<p>Perhaps these activists’ wealth was required to bring about change in Australia’s six richest electorates, but timing also mattered. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-management-in-australia-has-reached-a-crossroads-and-business-as-usual-wont-cut-it-174696">black summer bushfires</a>, coating Sydney and Melbourne in thick smoke, brought the urgency of the climate crisis home. Also crucial was the fact that during lockdowns, whole communities learned how to use Zoom at the same time, vastly increasing attendance at town-hall style online meetings. The community campaigns were also a women’s movement, with the <a href="https://www.march4justice.org.au/">March 4 Justice</a> protests in Canberra proving an important catalyst for connection. </p>
<p>More quietly, the housing crisis also influenced the outcome, with renters in wealthy electorates <a href="https://shaunratcliffdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2022/08/macquarie-slides-2022-08-04.pdf">more likely to vote teal</a> (and in Brisbane, for the Greens) than people who owned their own home.</p>
<p>The success of independents across the country is further evidence of the appetite for change in places without water views. </p>
<p>The other success story, of course, was the way <a href="https://daile.com.au/">Dai Le</a>, the former Liberal candidate, who ran as an independent, saw off Labor heavyweight Kristina Keneally in Fowler. Near-misses in the previously safe seats of Bradfield, Wannon, Cowper, Nicholls and Groom have primed independent candidates for clinching these seats next election. Across the country, thousands of volunteers turned up or donated money. </p>
<p>As Holmes à Court writes, election campaigns are known to be for the ambitious or lonely; the independents’ campaigns were full of the fun-loving and passionate. </p>
<h2>Blueprints for change</h2>
<p>Holmes à Court’s The Big Teal makes it clear from the first line that he “wasn’t there at the beginning”. The slim, readable book is a compelling account of how he became integral to the 2022 election, and indeed, the campaign’s public face. </p>
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<p>It is a personal account, reflecting on his parents, his traumatic years at Geelong Grammar, and first forays into community and environmental politics. It also sets out the values of Climate 200, and explains the many ways that incumbency and two-party dominance have rigged the system for Labor and the Coalition for so long. </p>
<p>By contrast, Saville’s The Teal Revolution and Turner’s Independents Day provide blow-by-blow accounts of the campaigns, and in so doing, they provide a blueprint for success. </p>
<p>We get a rich sense of what it takes to make campaigns work: the answer is networks and money, preferably lots of both. Saville’s book is the sports-car version of the story, tightly structured and fast-paced. It was an effective decision of Saville’s to distinguish the Sydney teals from those in Melbourne and Perth, in separate chapters, to emphasise the slightly different character of the candidates and campaigns. </p>
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<p>Alone among the three, Saville’s book has several moments of hilarity: mostly at the expense of Liberal MPs who provide verbal equivalents of toddler foot-stamping throughout the campaign. They are laugh-out-loud funny because, well, we know what happened. </p>
<p>Turner’s Independents Day is a fuller and more unwieldy book, especially in the first half, as Turner explains the way the various campaigns came together. </p>
<p>It’s a fascinating insight, but there are too many accounts of actors having a decisive coffee, walk or swim, and nearly every page introduces someone new in the interconnected web of growing influence. No doubt the accounts of hundreds of others were left on the editing block. The heavy detail is not organised chronologically or geographically, and requires its readers to have a solid grasp of Australian politics since 2010. </p>
<p>While it was great to read about the many nearly successful campaigns around the country, it’s a shame that Dai Le is almost entirely absent. As a Vietnamese woman with a long history of politics, her success taking on the Labor party in a lower socio-economic electorate is a unique story and worthy of our attention. </p>
<p>Turner’s account of David Pocock’s success in the senate race indicates he is a different order of politician to the teals from Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Pocock had just begun working with his brother on a long-planned regeneration project in Zimbabwe when he made the decision to return to Australia and pursue the Senate seat. </p>
<p>Pocock’s success means the Senate could be the target of future teals campaigns. With the balance of power, he has <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-welfare-recipients-are-potential-winners-from-pocock-twisting-albaneses-arm-195422">used his position</a> early to demand Anthony Albanese’s agreement to set up a “statutory advisory committee” to examine “the adequacy of social support payments every year before the federal budget”, before agreeing to support Labor’s industrial relations legislation. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-about-to-have-australias-most-diverse-parliament-yet-but-theres-still-a-long-way-to-go-183620">We're about to have Australia's most diverse parliament yet – but there's still a long way to go</a>
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<h2>Australian politics has changed</h2>
<p>Federally, it is unlikely the Coalition will win back the seats it lost to the teals. Several more electorates, held by both major parties, might fall next time around, further expanding the crossbench. It is not unthinkable that hung parliaments could become the norm, with independents from the left and right of politics.</p>
<p>The challenge for community campaigns will be how they can support high-quality candidates from a diversity of ethnic and sociocultural backgrounds. For now, at least, the two-party dominance has been cracked wide open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2022 federal election success of the teals and other community independents has been captured in three new books. How and why did they become a political force – and what might the future hold?Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689502021-09-29T08:44:37Z2021-09-29T08:44:37ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: The push to run independents on issues of climate and integrity<p>With the 2022 election looming, local activists are mobilising in many government seats to sponsor independent candidates. The push – stronger and more organised since the 2019 election – is driven especially by concerns about climate change and integrity issues, as well as the general declining faith in the major parties, </p>
<p>There will be substantial money and campaigning help for the more viable independent candidates. Businessman Simon Holmes à Court, with his Climate 200, is putting together a war chest that currently has more than $1.5 million, while former independent member for Indi, Cathy McGowan, who pioneered the “Voices” movement, is assisting local groups with advice on how to mobilise support.</p>
<p>Asked why people have shifted towards campaigns such as ‘Voices of’, Holmes à Court says these groups “are being set up by people who feel really let down”. He says expected target seats include Wentworth, North Sydney and Mackellar in Sydney, and Flinders, Kooyong and Goldstein in Melbourne. Hume (NSW) may be also on the list. “There is a very strong ‘vote Angus [Taylor] out’ group [that] makes that an interesting seat as well.”</p>
<p>Noting many of the “Voices” groups are in safe seats, McGowan says “there’s a sense that if you’re in a marginal seat, you get better service from either the government or the opposition. But if you’re in a safe seat for either of those teams, you get missed out on… [the locals] want better representation and then they want more, certainly on policy areas”.</p>
<p>She points out crossbenchers can be “really effective. […] And I think people like the calibre of the crossbench. And in many cases they’re much, much more effective than a backbench, either in the opposition or in the government.” </p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168950/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the rise of independent candidates in the 2022 federal election and how their campaigns will be helped by a big war chest and plenty of strategic adviceMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233472019-09-11T04:38:24Z2019-09-11T04:38:24ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Independent MP Helen Haines on using ‘soft power’<p>Helen Haines, MP for the Victorian regional seat Indi, made history at the election as the first federal independent to succeed another independent. </p>
<p>She was backed by grassroots campaigners, Voices for Indi, who had earlier helped her predecessor, Cathy McGowan, into parliament. But while McGowan towards the end of her time in the House of Representatives shared real legislative power after the Coalition fell into minority government, the same power does not lie with the lower house crossbench today.</p>
<p>Still, Haines believes she has what she calls “soft power” as she has focused on relationship building during the first few months into her term. </p>
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<p>Building relationships is key to getting things done and it’s key to establishing an environment that is less an environment of conflict and less an environment of bringing people down. </p>
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<p>On current legislation, Haines is in favour of the government’s push to stop animal-rights activists from publishing farmers’ personal information.</p>
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<p>Many people have contacted my office deeply concerned about this and I’m very supportive of bringing their views to the house on this. </p>
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<p>But she’s a trenchant critic of the government proposal for trials to drug test people on Newstart and Youth Allowance. She says “the evidence is not there to support” the move. </p>
<p>In Indi, she points to mental health and aged care as frontline issues, which she will seek to work with the government on.</p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>AAP/ Mick Tsikas</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Helen Haines, who does not have the real legislative power her predecessor, Cathy McGowan shared after the Coalition fell into minority government, says "building relationships is key to getting things done".Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114222019-02-10T19:15:55Z2019-02-10T19:15:55ZCould Tony Abbott lose to an independent? If the zeitgeist is any guide, he’s on thin ice<p>Strangely enough, there’s a link between “Kevin07” as an electoral phenomenon and the recent successes of independents such as Kerryn Phelps (Wentworth), Cathy McGowan (Indi), and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo). All three now hold once safe Coalition seats.</p>
<p>And the link is one that may prove influential in 2019, particularly for Zali Steggall, who is challenging Tony Abbott in Warringah.</p>
<p>As in the case of Kevin07, the formerly Coalition-friendly independents, which is also how Steggall positions herself, found a way of giving life-long centre-right voters permission to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. </p>
<p>The aim is to present as essentially similar to the incumbent conservative, but better. Modernised. Updated. </p>
<p>The implicit message to voters was that it was their party that had left them, not the other way around. </p>
<p>Such a sentiment may be ripe for expression in Warringah which, while economically conservative, has emerged as demonstrably more progressive than its long-time MP, Abbott. The blue-ribbon jewel was among the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7ENew%20South%20Wales%7E9">most pro-equality electorates</a> in the country in the 2017 postal survey. </p>
<p>Beaten only by Wentworth, the two inner-Sydney electorates were the leading Liberal-held “yes” seats in NSW. </p>
<p>And it is to these voters that new and fresh quasi-independent candidates like Steggall seek to speak – voters whose Liberal loyalties have been tested by Abbott’s blunt antipathy for social reform and particularly his denial of tough Australian action against global warming. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351">Liberals trounced in huge Wentworth swing, bringing a hung parliament</a>
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<h2>Labor’s unusual ‘07 campaign</h2>
<p>The trick is to be close, but not the same, and it has a record of working in conservative-minded electorates. </p>
<p>Underpinning Kevin Rudd’s defeat of John Howard in 2007 was a carefully calibrated reassurance that Howard’s Australia – in which political correctness had been demonised and social reform moved at a glacial pace – would continue even with a change to a Labor government.</p>
<p>Labor’s plan was to strip the election of the usual contrast between parties, reducing the choice before voters to John Howard or a kind of John Howard 2.0.</p>
<p>In a number of ways, Rudd presented as a prime ministerial simulacrum, updated but only where required to: prioritise “working families”, take faster action on climate change, and offer an exciting public investment bridge to the digital future (the NBN). </p>
<p>So successful was this unusual proposition, it tended to minimise other policy differences between the parties and neutralise the usual fear of change itself among cautious voters.</p>
<p>From a marketing perspective, it was daring given Rudd was in fact the leader of the opposing Labor Party.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-is-dead-long-live-political-marketing-2666">Democracy is dead, long live political marketing</a>
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<p>Crucially, it sought simultaneously to share in the government’s credit for economic stewardship – moderate inflation, strong employment, and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview_2007-_2008/Key_Features">healthy budget surplus</a> again – while outflanking Howard on his right.</p>
<p>Of course there was more to the 2007 changeover than mere campaigning, not least being Howard’s odious industrial relations laws (WorkChoices), an inconvenient <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/07/australia-rates-howard-markets-econ-cx_rd_1107markets16.html#29cb265c7f60">mid-campaign cash rate hike</a> (to 6.75%), and simple fatigue after a dozen years of Coalition rule.</p>
<p>Even so, there’s no denying that with his lay-preacher persona, non-union background, and claim to be fiscally conservative, Rudd deftly positioned himself as the safe choice for those voters considering change but still concerned with budget discipline and creeping permissiveness.</p>
<p>Similar to Labor’s 2007 strategy, Phelps, McGowan and Sharkie have offered the tribally conservative voter a reduced-risk alternative to the status quo. Or, as some have coined it, “continuity through change”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-cathy-mcgowan-and-rebekha-sharkie-on-the-role-of-community-candidates-103169">Politics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates</a>
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<p>But there are also key differences. While Rudd promised measured economic modernisation in a socially-conservative manifesto - opposing same-sex marriage, for example - the new breed of once-were-Liberals flip that around. </p>
<p>They tend to emphasise the low tax, pro-business instincts of conservatives, but are more left-leaning on social policy and the environment. This turns out to reflect much of the electorate also – including many Liberal voters.</p>
<h2>Can Steggall do the same in Warringah?</h2>
<p>It’s a formula with a particular piquancy now given 2019 marks ten years since Tony Abbott rolled Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership over emissions trading. </p>
<p>An acrimonious decade on, and with no government climate or energy policy to speak of, voters’ patience has been strained to breaking point. The endless point-scoring and division has nudged moderately inclined Liberals within the grasp of new independents.</p>
<p>Fittingly, these events are coming to a head most threateningly for the government in Abbott’s own stronghold of Warringah. </p>
<p>Abbott’s vulnerability turns on three things: the standing of the Morrison government come polling day (which may or may not have improved), the campaign prowess of the Steggall operation (unknown), and the extent of declining loyalty by once solid supporters in his electorate. All are in flux.</p>
<p>Steggall’s threshold objective must be to drive Abbott’s primary vote south of 45%. That will not be easy. In 2016, his primary vote tanked by some 9% but he still managed to hold the seat without need for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/warr/">second preferences at 51.65%</a>.</p>
<p>Still, if the zeitgeist is any guide, Steggall’s presentation as “the Liberal for the future against the Liberal for the past” will be appealing to those voters peeved at Abbott’s undermining of Turnbull and specifically the right-wing insurgency against the government’s National Energy Guarantee. </p>
<p>It could also resonate strongly with Liberal backers who were appalled at Abbott’s starring, if roundly ineffective, campaign against marriage equality.</p>
<p>Despite its unwavering support for Abbott through nine elections, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1800.0%7E2017%7EMain%20Features%7EResults%7E1">Warringah voted</a> “yes” to legalising same-sex marriage at the rate of 75% compared to the national rate of 62%. It even exceeded support in the most progressive jurisdiction – the ACT.</p>
<p>Steggall’s backers believe Abbott’s famous resistance to a reform his constituents found uncontroversial will prove it is his failure to move with the times that will force them to move their votes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just as with Kevin07, formerly Coalition-friendly independents gave life-long centre-right voters a way to break ranks without feeling like they were being disloyal. Zali Steggall is doing the same.Mark Kenny, Senior Fellow, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1031692018-09-13T08:47:02Z2018-09-13T08:47:02ZPolitics Podcast: Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie on the role of community candidates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236162/original/file-20180913-177962-e2n5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Independent Cathy McGowan and the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie share more in common than just sitting on the crossbench. The members for Indi and Mayo respectively have dug in to retain their seats, and they believe there is “a mood” in the community for alternative candidates. </p>
<p>McGowan and Sharkie have given the government their confidence until the Wentworth byelection - after which they will consult with their electorates. They think Kerryn Phelps would have “an excellent chance” of winning the byelection if she runs as an independent. Sharkie said “I would certainly be keen to support her in any capacity and that just might be phone calls just to give her some support”.</p>
<p>Even a few weeks after the leadership spill, Sharkie said “there is still a lot of grieving in Mayo for the loss of Malcolm Turnbull”. The feeling in Indi was “very similar”, McGowan said, “except there was another level” - the loss of an energy policy. </p>
<p>On the Liberal’s problems with unity and women, McGowan said “it’s not just the bullying it’s how they work together as a team. In making themselves into a much better party they might open themselves to greater diversity and to better systems and practices for managing conflict.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>McGowan and Sharkie have given the government their confidence until the Wentworth byelection - after which they will consult with their electorates.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/915702018-02-09T02:17:21Z2018-02-09T02:17:21ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the private lives of our politicians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205635/original/file-20180209-180826-ktonpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
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<p>The University of Canberra’s Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including whether the private lives of politicians are in the public interest, Cathy McGowan’s proposal to ban personal relationships between MPs and their staffers, Jacqui Lambie ousting Steve Martin from her party, and Labor MP Susan Lamb’s emotional story on why she holds dual citizenship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91570/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraNicholas Klomp, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Academic, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621162016-07-11T02:18:13Z2016-07-11T02:18:13ZExplainer: who are the independents and minor parties in the lower house?<p>Five crossbench members of the House of Representatives will take their seats in the 45th parliament when it convenes in coming weeks.</p>
<p>Joining veteran Queensland politician Bob Katter are third-term independent member of parliament (MP) Andrew Wilkie, the Greens’ Adam Bandt, and the returning independent MP for Indi, Cathy McGowan. This seasoned group will be joined by a first-time MP for the Nick Xenophon Team, Rebekha Sharkie.</p>
<p>After a slim victory, how the Coalition works with the crossbench MPs will prove important to the success and stability of the Turnbull government.</p>
<h2>Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party) – member for Kennedy</h2>
<p>Katter has a long and colourful history in politics. A former National Party member for the state seat of Flinders, he served as a minister in Queensland’s Bjelke-Petersen government from 1983 to 1989. </p>
<p>Katter entered federal parliament in 1993 as a National Party MP. He resigned in 2001 to become an independent, citing an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2001/s326098.htm">irreconcilable ideological difference</a> on the Coalition’s economic direction. </p>
<p>Now he is set to commence his 23rd year and ninth term in federal parliament as head of Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). He formed KAP in 2011 as a response to a weakness he saw among independent MPs: the inability to affect change for their constituencies. </p>
<p>Katter is known for his erratic and often eccentric style. He favours an interventionist and protectionist approach in support of agriculture and rural industry. He believes in statehood for Northern Queensland and is a fierce supporter of the union movement.</p>
<p>In lending his qualified support <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-bob-katter-sides-with-malcolm-turnbull-20160707-gq0n3z">to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull</a> should the Coalition require his vote, Katter indicated he would be mindful of issues such as support for live cattle exports and going ahead with the Hell’s Gate dam to help boost jobs in the state’s north.</p>
<p>A challenge for Katter in this new parliament may well be reconciling his support for greater protectionism and the union movement with the Liberal Party’s focused economic liberalism. </p>
<h2>Andrew Wilkie – member for Denison</h2>
<p>Wilkie has <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-wins-more-crossbench-support-as-governments-numbers-still-to-be-finalised-62225">given Malcolm Turnbull his assurance</a> that he will back the government on supply and confidence. But he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election2016-independent-andrew-wilkie-rules-out-deals/7565626">wants to maintain his independence</a>) as a representative of his electorate.</p>
<p>Wilkie has won the former safe Labor seat of Denison in Tasmania with an increased margin at each election since 2010. </p>
<p>A former Army officer and manager with contractor Raytheon Australia, Wilkie joined the public service as a senior strategic analyst in the Office of National Assessments in 2001. </p>
<p>In 2003 he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/s804540.htm">famously resigned</a> in opposition to the Howard government’s participation in the Iraq War. <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/05/30/1054177726543.html">He argued</a> the intelligence leading to Australia’s involvement was predicated on a lie. </p>
<p>Wilkie has been a member of the Liberals and Greens, running for the latter in 2004 and 2007. Neither was a good fit. </p>
<p>Running as an independent in 2010, he stood on an anti-gambling platform and railed against the parlous state of mental health services – issues he still champions. He also threw his support behind Labor to help secure Julia Gillard minority government.</p>
<p>In recent years, Wilkie has been highly critical of the live export trade, Australia’s failure to legalise same-sex marriage, and the treatment of asylum seekers. </p>
<p>The challenge for the government will be working with Wilkie on a case-by-case basis, particularly on these issues and others concerning his electorate.</p>
<h2>Adam Bandt (Greens) – member for Melbourne</h2>
<p>Bandt was first elected to parliament in 2010, winning the previously safe Labor seat of Melbourne. </p>
<p>A lawyer by profession, Bandt has had a strong interest in human rights and social justice issues in both his legal and political careers. His PhD examined governments’ suspension of human rights.</p>
<p>In the 45th parliament, the Greens indicated they would focus on Medicare, subsidised dental care, the formation of a national body to protect the environment, and the end of offshore detention of asylum seekers.</p>
<p>It is also likely that Bandt will revisit issues he raised in the past for which he might find crossbench support. These include reforming politicians’ entitlements and political donations, and the need for a national anti-corruption body.</p>
<p>A Coalition government will continue to find working with Bandt and the Greens a challenge. Ideologically they are poles apart on issues from school funding and the environment to unions.</p>
<p>Bandt has stated that while the Greens <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/adam-bandt-says-greens-would-be-open-to-laborgreens-coalition-ahead-of-election-20160509-goq96g.html">would not be averse</a> to entering a coalition arrangement with Labor, they would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-2016:-adam-bandt/7575916">not support a Liberal-National Coalition</a> government. </p>
<p>In the House of Representatives, Bandt could add weight to the sizeable Labor opposition.</p>
<h2>Cathy McGowan – member for Indi</h2>
<p>McGowan was re-elected for a second term in 2016. She <a href="http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-218.htm">increased her margin</a> in the former long-term Liberal-held safe seat against Sophie Mirabella. </p>
<p>McGowan is a former Liberal Party member and electorate staff member for Ewen Cameron, a previous Indi MP. She has worked as a teacher in rural Victoria, a public servant, a consultant on issues affecting rural communities, an academic, researcher and company director. </p>
<p>McGowan’s strong local presence and deep understanding of local issues have seen her speak out on economic disadvantage, rural employment, improving infrastructure, telecommunications, renewable energy and transport. </p>
<p>While her <a href="http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/parliament">voting record indicates</a> she has strongly supported the Coalition government’s policy agenda, her focus has been very much on the needs of Indi.</p>
<p>Since the election, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-2016-independent-mcgowan-rejects-speaker-talk/7565478">McGowan has said</a> she would work productively with the Coalition and would <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-wins-more-crossbench-support-as-governments-numbers-still-to-be-finalised-62225">back the government on supply an confidence</a>. She has also highlighted her positive working relationship with Turnbull. </p>
<p>The government will face fewer challenges working with McGowan than some of the other independents and minors, but she will clearly put her electorate’s needs first, and is likely to favour the National Party’s regional agenda.</p>
<h2>Rebekha Sharkie (Nick Xenophon Team) – member for Mayo</h2>
<p>Sharkie is the political novice on the crossbench. The newly elected member for the South Australian seat of Mayo is also the first House of Representatives member of the newly formed Nick Xenophon Team (NXT). She is not, however, completely new to politics. </p>
<p>While coming from an administrative, conveyancing and small-business background, Sharkie has tertiary qualifications in politics and experience working for MPs. She worked with state Liberal MP and party leader Isobel Redmond and, for a brief time before resigning, with the man she unseated, Jamie Briggs. </p>
<p>During the election campaign, Sharkie drew attention to issues in her electorate, including youth employment, transport and access to medical services. She wants to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/30/there-is-a-bitter-battle-in-mayo-that-is-much-bigger-than-jamie/">focus on a range of issues</a>.</p>
<p>Her party leader Nick Xenophon has had discussions with Turnbull about issues of concern to NXT in the forthcoming parliament, including free-trade agreements (FTAs) and the future of the Arrium steelworks. The party believes FTAs are not in Australia’s national interest and wants to see them reviewed at the very least. </p>
<p>Sharkie tripped up on the issue of FTAs on the campaign trail and it’s unclear whether her inexperience and potentially loose party discipline will see NXT fracture like the Palmer United Party. Xenophon is, however, a more experienced leader and is more likely to hold the team together</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a slim victory, how the Coalition works with the crossbench MPs will prove important to the success and stability of the Turnbull government.Tracee McPate, Manager, Strategic Programs and Outreach, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityRobyn Hollander, Associate Professor School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/616722016-06-27T10:36:20Z2016-06-27T10:36:20ZThe Indi Project: ‘Soft’ voters trust Turnbull over Shorten to run the country<p>Malcolm Turnbull is overwhelmingly more trusted than Bill Shorten to lead the country, and also is seen as the better campaigner, in the final round of Indi focus group research among “soft” voters in the seat.</p>
<p>Despite the major parties being out of favour with many of these “soft” voters, people are impressed with Turnbull’s charisma, previous business acumen and moderate personal views on issues such as same-sex marriage and climate change.</p>
<p>Two focus groups were held in Wodonga on June 21, the campaign’s penultimate week, with people from various locations. One group had eight voters aged 60-77; the other, ten people aged 23-53. Some participants had been in one or both previous tranches of the study done for the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis by Landscape Research. Soft voters were defined as people who had not definitely decided their vote.</p>
<p>While there was division among older voters about the leaders’ performance in the campaign (a 4-4 split on who had performed best), younger voters mostly gave it to Turnbull (7-3).</p>
<p>Older people regarded Turnbull as the more charismatic, but felt Shorten was “more for the regular Joe” – not that these voters have had any opportunity to see either leader in the flesh during the campaign.</p>
<p>Nobody would have expected Shorten to go to Indi, because Labor is a minor player there. But Turnbull’s absence is notable – reflecting in part the Liberals’ judgement about the prospects of their candidate Sophie Mirabella, who lost the seat to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013 and is now fighting what is considered a doomed battle to come back.</p>
<p>“It all comes down to this confidence, this savoir faire,” said an older voter of Turnbull. Another said: “He’s certainly more charismatic and more capable than Shorten of expressing an opinion”. </p>
<p>Comments in the younger group included: “Turnbull dressed to impress”; “Turnbull seems like he’s more financially savvy and has a longer-term view - more articulate”; “bit more positive than Shorten”.</p>
<p>After more than six weeks of the campaign Shorten was still an unknown quantity for some, particularly older voters. “Out of a line-up I could tell you who Turnbull was – I couldn’t pick Shorten, unless it was a line-up of two and Turnbull was the other one,” said an older voter; another said “You just don’t know what you’re going to get with him”. A younger voter couldn’t “even picture Shorten”.</p>
<p>His union background was among other negatives about Shorten, including one specific local instance. “He was involved in [a union intervention] down in Cobram [in the Murray electorate] a few years ago and he messed it up and it’s still messed up.”</p>
<p>A 77-year-old retired truck driver from Wodonga said: “I don’t go much for Shorten. I’ve been a union man all my life but I sort of can’t trust what I see of him … I’ve voted Labor all my life but I’m changing this year”.</p>
<p>When they discussed who they trusted more to lead the country the older voters broke 5-3 for Turnbull, while the split in the younger group was 8-2, making a total of 13-5 in support of Turnbull.</p>
<p>Turnbull was “more calm and well-spoken [with] longer-term thinking,” said one in the younger group; another found him “a bit more honest and transparent”. Those who said they would trust Shorten more to lead said they’d like him given “a go” and they felt he was more in touch with average Australians. “Shorten comes across as straightforward and honest.”</p>
<p>The focus groups met before the Brexit decision but when Shorten was ramping up his claims that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare. This was cutting through with these voters, just as they were starting to take notice of some issues in the campaign.</p>
<p>Many thought Shorten’s proposition was plausible, especially because of the Liberals’ perceived past “form”. “Medicare Locals are all gone … They said they weren’t going to shut those down”; “Turnbull’s come out and said he wouldn’t privatise Medicare, but he hasn’t said he wouldn’t privatise aspects of it. I think that’s the issue.”</p>
<p>Some questioned the logic and practicality of privatisation, thinking this was just a Labor scare campaign, or dismissing it because it would be suicidal for the Liberals. “Which company’s going to take on Medicare anyway? Isn’t it a drain on the country?”; “on balance I don’t think the Coalition would be brave enough to privatise Medicare”.</p>
<p>The groups canvassed same-sex marriage – on which the government promises a plebiscite while the opposition pledges to legalise it in a Labor government’s first 100 days. Mostly the issue has remained on the fringes of the campaign. In both groups there was some confusion about the difference between a “plebiscite” and a “referendum”, but other participants were able to explain the distinction to those who didn’t know.</p>
<p>Younger voters were generally in favour of same-sex marriage, and so didn’t see the need for a plebiscite. “Just do it”; “it’s the way of the future”; “[the plebiscite is] a very expensive way of addressing something that I see as inevitable.”</p>
<p>Among soft older voters, some agree with same-sex marriage, some are totally opposed on religious grounds, while others want to have a voice. “I don’t want just the politicians to decide. It’s such a big change to our social fabric, that I want to have a say.”</p>
<p>Some older voters opposed a plebiscite, feeling the politicians should sort the issue. Others felt a plebiscite was a waste because politicians could still vote any way they wanted. Later in the week, a debate broke out nationally when Turnbull said that if the plebiscite was carried cabinet ministers would have a free vote on the enabling legislation (although he was confident it would be overwhelmingly passed).</p>
<p>Among older voters, there was a recognition a plebiscite was a solution to Turnbull’s bind – in being caught between those opponents of same-sex marriage in Liberal ranks and his own support for it.</p>
<p>In this campaign Turnbull has unrelentingly made “jobs and growth” his mantra. By the second last week the Indi soft voters were aware of it but thought it lacked meat, wondering how the jobs were going to be created. Labor’s policy of offering businesses assistance to take on an unemployed person got some attention from older soft voters, with some sceptical that it would create jobs.</p>
<p>Older voters noticed the Labor launch, which had been held in Sydney at the start of the week. “I had a bloody good laugh,” said a semi-retired woman from Beechworth. “In what world has the Labor party ever been united in the last five years? I mean, they’re spruiking unity? Pl-ease. My goodness, all of a sudden they love each other?”</p>
<p>The environment, education and retirement income were issues that older voters had expected to hear about during the campaign but little had registered with them. This is despite education in particular being at the heart of the Shorten pitch. It’s likely that different segments of the population tune into particular issues of relevance to them; also, a lot of propaganda is very targeted in modern campaigns, now that parties have so much data about individual voters.</p>
<p>When asked who would win the election, many of these voters predicted a hung parliament. Pushed for a winner, all but one of the older participants thought the Coalition more likely than Labor, while the younger ones split evenly.</p>
<p>McGowan’s refusal to say who she would support if the parliament were hung polarised these soft voters. They were divided over who she should side with, if the situation arose; some said it should be the Coalition because of the generally conservative nature of Indi; others said the ALP (“Cathy seems a bit more aligned with Labor”). </p>
<p>Some thought she was just like other politicians, in keeping things close to her chest to get more votes from people who mightn’t like her leaning. Others believed it was a good thing because she was waiting to see the result.</p>
<p>These voters are not thinking in terms of how their futures would be affected by a change of government. There is a sense that they expect “business as usual” whoever wins. “In spite of their deep cynicism about politicians and party politics, soft Indi voters actually implicitly trust the Australian democratic process to deliver a ‘stable’ outcome – so much so that for many it doesn’t matter who wins,” the researcher said in her report on the discussions.</p>
<p>But there is a desire among some for whoever wins to get control of the Senate. In this, Indi voters probably differ from electors elsewhere, given the high support in recent polls for “micro” players. The Indi voters seem to be balancing their backing for an independent in the House of Representatives with a wish for stability, reflected in their thinking about the Senate.</p>
<p>As previously, participants were asked who they would vote for. This time they filled out a full mock ballot paper. The results in this qualitative research have no statistical validity but once again indicate interesting points. “To some degree, voting in Indi is being driven by who soft voters know they DON’T want to vote for,” the researcher said. “Many participants actually started voting from number ten [there are ten candidates] and eliminated those they felt they didn’t want to vote for.”</p>
<p>Mirabella was placed tenth by five of the 18 voters in the groups, and first by just three. The first preference choices were: McGowan 12 (67%), Mirabella three (17%), the Nationals’ Marty Corboy two (11%), with a minor candidate receiving the other vote. Over the three tranches McGowan has strengthened her position among focus group participants, especially between the first and second rounds.</p>
<p>When people were asked for second preferences, the results were: McGowan two, Mirabella two, Corboy one, the Greens’ Jenny O'Connor five, Labor’s Eric Kerr two, with the rest scattered among minor candidates.</p>
<p>On all the present indications, McGowan is expected to comfortably retain Indi, after preferences.</p>
<p>The researcher summed up the nature of this contest: “Indi is a race of personality, of incidents around the personalities, of who’s been seen out and about. There is little in the way of policy or issues that is captivating voters.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull is overwhelmingly more trusted than Bill Shorten to lead the country in the final round of Indi focus group research among ‘soft’ voters in the seat.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/612222016-06-22T00:43:19Z2016-06-22T00:43:19ZThe Indi Project: who do Indi voters trust to run the country?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127229/original/image-20160620-11089-l2153h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cathy McGowan is a community-minded representative who seeks to build her electorate’s capacity to respond to rural challenges. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>At the moment a lot of politicians go into politics for advancement rather than service. Turning out clones of media-savvy people with soundbites and platitudes not genuine responses. It feels like they’re manufactured. – Indi citizen</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Only 42% of Australians are presently satisfied with the way democracy works. Trust in our politicians and the political process are at the lowest level than at any time since 1994. And the majority of citizens describe the standards of honesty and integrity in Australia as low. The proportion of those disaffected increases with age. </p>
<p>At the same time, more Australians than ever before are undecided on how to vote at the forthcoming election.</p>
<p>These observations of democratic decline are <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-for-the-big-question-who-do-you-trust-to-run-the-country-58723">just a snapshot</a> of the views of 1,444 Australians reported in a survey designed by the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis (IGPA) at the University of Canberra and the Museum of Australian Democracy.</p>
<p>To explore these findings in more detail, the IGPA research team is conducting focus groups with different groups throughout Australia.</p>
<p>The first stop has been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/indi/">Indi</a> in northeastern Victoria. Indi was selected for two reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>it is experiencing demographic, economic and social challenges that are fairly typical in rural communities; and </p></li>
<li><p>its incumbent MP, Cathy McGowan, is an independent. She usurped Sophie Mirabella, who is attempting to reclaim the seat in 2016, in spectacular fashion at the last election. This suggests Indi has a potentially large number of floating voters at the local scale, mirroring the situation nationally.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are two politicians that represent very distinctive styles of politics. Mirabella is a seasoned party woman – a career politician once tipped for the frontbench who exercises some influence both in her party and in Canberra. McGowan is a community-minded representative who seeks to build her electorate’s capacity to respond to rural challenges. </p>
<p>Mirabella approaches politics like a blood sport and has significant skill in engaging in adversarial politics. McGowan appears empathetic, concerned and responsive, and is immediately likeable. So what do the people of Indi think about issues of trust?</p>
<h2>What are the characteristics of Indi’s ideal politician?</h2>
<p>Although Indi voters cite standard characteristics that we would expect when asked to describe their “ideal” MP (such as honesty, trustworthy, ethical, local identity – “knows the area”), there are some additional features they are looking for. These appear to correlate strongly with experiences of their immediate past and current federal MPs.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?</strong> </p>
<p><em>A: Politicians are in it just for themselves.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of political self-interest by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Indi voters desire someone who is “approachable and accessible”, “who listens to them”, who “communicates and follows up”, who “fights for them”, and who “has influence in government to get things done”.</p>
<h2>What do they trust politicians to do?</h2>
<p>Younger Indi voters particularly are highly sceptical of the discussion around jobs, and feel the numbers thrown around in that discussion are slippery.</p>
<p>They doubt whether the job creation promised will be delivered, and think the job prospects are likely to be short-term, part-time or casual positions, when they are looking for long-term, meaningful employment.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: Please indicate how concerned you are about the following activities by elected politicians in Australia today.</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Making promises they know they can’t keep.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concern about false promises by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Younger voters’ disappointment in their political representatives is manifest. They see their lack of faith as justified by the ubiquitous “broken promises” of politicians of all persuasions.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: Please indicate how concerned you are about the following activities by elected politicians in Australia today.</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Breaking promises.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concern about promise breaking by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Older voters don’t trust governments in general. However, they make some dispensations for local government – which they see as somewhat more accessible and accountable because of its proximity to citizens.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: In general, would you say that federal governments are typically run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all people?</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the motivations of politicians by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>What does trust mean to Indi citizens?</h2>
<p>Indi soft voters were asked to define what trust meant to them. While there was a wide range of responses, several key themes emerged.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Trust means that I know that someone’s being real and honest with me, not pleasing my ears with sweet talk while holding a gun under the table.</p>
<p>Trustworthiness is earned by following through with promises without betrayal, and in regards to politics (or just being in the global community) for me it means feeling that a person is being who they really are, not just putting on an act when the cameras are on.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: MPs in general.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for MPs in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: MPs (local).</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for local MPs in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>To a large extent, Indi’s floating voter is resigned to what they get.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Federal government.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for federal government in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>There is some recognition that governments do actually deliver decent services, but that they need to be accountable for their promises.</p>
<h2>Understanding the politics of trust</h2>
<p>The declining figures on democratic satisfaction, formal political engagement and trust in political institutions and politicians should be troubling for all political parties who have presided over a decade of democratic decline.</p>
<p>The evidence nationally and from Indi is that the key question for the majority of Australians come election time is: who do you trust to run the country? </p>
<p>For many, political parties are simply failing to capture the political imagination. This provides the space for either independents and/or minority parties to build alternative agendas around the politics of trust or a wake-up call to the major parties to reconnect with the citizenry.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The election generally, and Indi in particular, will be <a href="https://www.trybooking.com/LWON">discussed at a forum</a> attended by Mark Evans, Michelle Grattan and others on Saturday, June 25. For a more detailed exposition of this article see the forthcoming book, <a href="https://www.echobooks.com.au/book-shop/from_abbott_to_turnbull">From Abbott to Turnbull: Australian Commonwealth Administration 2013-2016</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Evans receives funding for his research from a range of governmental and non governmental organizations including research councils, foundations, international organizations, overseas governments and jurisdictions across Australia. He is committed to the production of objective, evidence based research that makes a contribution to real world problem solving.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Halupka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Indi has a potentially large number of floating voters at the local scale, mirroring the situation nationally. What do the people of Indi think about issues of trust?Mark Evans, Professor of Governance and Director of the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis and NATSEM, University of CanberraMax Halupka, Research Fellow at the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/609552016-06-13T12:33:18Z2016-06-13T12:33:18ZThe Indi Project: Soft voters say Turnbull better leader to handle a Trump presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126284/original/image-20160613-29229-1lswrmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Support for Cathy McGowan has strengthened notably since the last focus group discussion in May. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cathy McGowan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Soft voters in the Victorian seat of Indi are strengthening their support for independent member Cathy McGowan, but many are inclined to balance that out by opting for the Coalition in the Senate.</p>
<p>At a time when it is expected the election will see a significant number of micro-players in the upper house, the second round of the Indi Project’s focus group research found some of these soft voters looking for stability there.</p>
<p>A 53-year-old Wangaratta laboratory technician said: “I want my Senate rep to be working for a better long-term Australia, even if it is bad for my local area. Conversely, I want my [House of Representatives member] to work for my little Indi area, to help me in everyday ways.”</p>
<p>A younger male part-time customer-service representative from Wodonga felt “Cathy will get things done for our area. I think the major parties will be able to implement greater change in the Senate.”</p>
<p>Round two of the qualitative study, commissioned by the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis and conducted by Landscape Research, was done online last Wednesday and Thursday nights. The 25 “soft voters” aged 18-71, 12 of them women, included retirees, full and part-time workers, small-business owners, those engaged with home duties, and students voting for the first time. About half had been in one of the first focus groups a fortnight before. “Soft” voters haven’t decided definitely for whom they will vote.</p>
<p>Support for McGowan had strengthened notably since the May 24 discussions, though some voters still struggle with what she stands for. She “needs to outline a more specific platform”; “I need to see more of her ideas”. </p>
<p>Feeling against the Liberals’ Sophie Mirabella – who lost the seat to McGowan – was intense before and has worsened. “She comes across as negative and her body language says a lot during this campaign,” said a childcare worker. Soft Liberal voters are leaning to her only because she represents the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ Marty Corboy failed to get much traction in the fortnight in capitalising on Mirabella’s unpopularity among soft Coalition voters. Many still know little of him; his right-wing views on issues such as abortion, climate change and same-sex marriage have put off some.</p>
<p>While the ALP is putting the Liberals ahead of the Nationals on its how-to-vote cards in three seats where there is a Liberal-Nationals contest, it has placed Corboy (at number eight) ahead of Mirabella (at nine). Pre-polling starts on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Nationally, neither Malcolm Turnbull nor Bill Shorten is inspiring these Indi soft voters. For some it’s a question of who is the least worst. “Both [Liberal and Labor] are terrible at managing their money … I just feel Turnbull is less terrible,” said a young Yackandandah tradie.</p>
<p>These soft voters, like the Australian electorate generally, are jaded after the prime ministerial merry-go-round of recent years, the 2010-13 hung parliament, and what they see as tricky preference deals. </p>
<p>Trust has been eroded (though they keep things in perspective, with favourable comparisons to overseas). “The current revolving door of prime ministers, done without the consent of the public, means they can’t achieve anything meaningful in such a short time,” said one male student; according to a another, “The fact that we haven’t had a full-term prime minister since 2007 shows me that the parties are getting greedier and more detached from the people’s interests.”</p>
<p>The group was polarised about the possibility a hung parliament – whether it would result in independents twisting the government’s arm into bad decisions or would be a chance for them to keep the bastards honest. </p>
<p>On one view “too many independents will cause chaos in parliament” and “it can mean that the majority party may need to compromise too much”. On the other hand, “it would bring a fresh set of eyes to the table who might offer something others have missed”; “we have a lot of independents with really innovative and sensible policies – if they are able to implement some of those policies, perhaps more will be done for our country.”</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these differing views, many of these soft voters are confident of McGowan’s ability and integrity to make sensible choices if in a balance of power situation.</p>
<p>A first-time voter saw a paradox in this election: “It’s so ironic given that the election was made a double dissolution to remove the independents in the Senate, only for the Parliament to likely become dominated by them.”</p>
<p>Participants were asked who they would vote for from McGowan, Mirabella, or Corboy if the election were that day. It must be stressed the result has no statistical validity. But the trend is interesting. The primary vote for McGowan was three times as strong as that for Corboy and four times that for Mirabella, who received the lowest number of both primary votes and preferences out of the three candidates.</p>
<p>In the May 24 round, the results on first preferences were McGowan 35%, Mirabella 24%, Corboy 24%, others 18%. In this round McGowan received 16 votes (64%), Corboy five (20%), and Mirabella four (16%). In their allocation of second preferences, McGowan received five (20%), Corboy 11 (44%), and Mirabella nine (36%).</p>
<p>When participants were asked for a Senate vote, total Coalition support was 50% (Liberals 10, Nationals two), with 25% support for independents (six). Labor (three), Greens (two) and other minor parties (one) combined made up the remaining 25%. (One participant dropped out of the discussion before the Senate vote.)</p>
<p>“The strength of the Coalition vote in the Senate is likely a reflection of soft voters’ desire for stability in government (while supporting a good local representative in McGowan), the traditional conservative nature of the seat, the stated disaffection with the lower house candidate Mirabella, and either lack of knowledge about or dislike for the ‘far-right’ views of the Nationals candidate Corboy,” the researcher said in her report.</p>
<p>Over halfway into the campaign, these Indi soft voters remained disengaged from the election. “We just seem to have two parties waffling on about not much in general,” observed one participant; another said, “all they seem to be doing is finding fault with each other”.</p>
<p>There is cynicism about the campaign being more of the same. “Just dissing on each other,” observed a middle-aged factory worker, adding “each year it’s the same”. </p>
<p>For a retired small business owner it was “the same old same old. More schools, better health care, tax variation. As for a plan, they will offer whatever it takes to win the election.”</p>
<p>The Liberals’ “growth and jobs” mantra and Labor’s social policy agenda are getting some cut-through; so are the attacks on Labor’s big spending.
But campaign promises are being met by these voters with disdain and distrust – politicians in the past have failed to act to deliver on their promises and now they are here with another round. </p>
<p>A semi-retired older woman from Beechworth cut to the chase: “The parties, all of them, always have ‘a plan’ when they are fighting … an election. The hard bit is getting them to stick to their promises, or even remember the ‘plan’ when they get into power. Too many times we are made promises, only to have those promises either put on the backburner, or not fulfilled at all.”</p>
<p>The discussion canvassed specific issues, including superannuation, where tax concessions for the wealthy will be cut whoever wins the election, and the Coalition’s plan to bring down company tax over a decade.</p>
<p>Superannuation is seen largely as a vehicle for the rich; many younger voters dismissed it because they are a long way from retirement – a 48-year-old male factory worker said “still ten years away for me”. One or two who’d be affected were narky. “But the dominant view is that the proposed super changes will remove a perk for the rich (and something many of these soft voters are unable to access) and they are therefore supportive of the move,” the researcher concluded.</p>
<p>There was uncertainty about the impact of the company tax move and a mix of views. Many were supportive of tax cuts for small business, but had reservations about the same concession for big business. </p>
<p>“On balance, it appears as if Labor’s framing of this policy has been effective, with many opposed and expecting ‘big business’ to pay more or at least ‘their fair share’,” the report said. “Trickle down economics hasn’t worked anywhere else,” a middle-aged man opined; a stay-at-home mother said “everything seems geared to help the big guys”, while a middle-aged female predicted “any jobs created will only be casual, or small part-time”, adding that part-time jobs didn’t create growth – “they only make employment numbers look good for politicians”. </p>
<p>A Wodonga retiree believed “reducing company tax on big business will only increase their profits and will have marginal impact on small companies who are struggling to pay any tax at all. I do not support universal tax cuts but rather increased tax on the most profitable and lower tax on small business.”</p>
<p>The discussion also tested views on the implications for Australia if Donald Trump became the US president, and whether Turnbull or Shorten would be the better leader to deal with him.</p>
<p>These voters were hostile to Trump and concerned about him. “Batshit crazy” was the blunt assessment of a small business owner from Killara. A Wodonga part-time educator declared Trump “an arrogant chauvinist and not smart enough to understand how ill-equipped he is to run a country”. A male retiree described him as “a terrible danger to the world if elected”.</p>
<p>There was some concern about Trump, if president, starting a war – with the implications for Australia. “Trump is the sort of person who will declare war on other countries readily, and that could have a big effect on us,” a student said.</p>
<p>Turnbull was regarded by many as the better leader to handle Trump, with Turnbull’s business experience and money cited by some as reasons. “Turnbull, because he is more business-minded”; “Trump is more likely to respect his money”; “they seem to be cut from the same cloth, they are both savvy businessmen”. Turnbull “would stand up for the Australian policies and not be bluffed by Trump”. Only one or two thought Shorten would do a better job.</p>
<p>A few thought neither would be up to the challenge, and looked to the past. “Can we bring back John Howard or even Kevin Rudd to deal with him?” an older woman asked rhetorically, while another lamented: “Actually what a pity Bob Hawke isn’t around anymore – he would give Donald a run for his money!”</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/h7i43-6003b1?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/h7i43-6003b1?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Soft voters in the Victorian seat of Indi are strengthening their support for independent member Cathy McGowan, but many are inclined to balance that out by opting for the Coalition in the Senate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602302016-05-31T01:48:20Z2016-05-31T01:48:20ZElection podcast: the Indi project<p>The battle for the Victorian seat of Indi is shaping up as a three-way contest. Independent Cathy McGowan is trying to fend off the former member Sophie Mirabella and the Nationals’ Marty Corboy.</p>
<p>McGowan tells Michelle Grattan the election will come down to preferences. </p>
<p>“I’m hoping that the National Party people will consider giving me their second preference and I’m hoping that Liberal Party people … certainly the ones in Wodonga – don’t see their answer in the National Party and they will consider giving me their preferences,” she says. </p>
<p>In this special election podcast, Michelle Grattan interviews McGowan, Corboy, as well as the Greens’ candidate Jenny O'Connor and Labor’s Eric Kerr. Sophie Mirabella was unwilling to be interviewed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The battle for the Victorian seat of Indi is shaping up as a three-way contest.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602232016-05-30T14:06:35Z2016-05-30T14:06:35ZThe Indi Project: Sophie Mirabella in the bunker<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124500/original/image-20160530-7713-weg4ov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former independent member for Wills, Phil Cleary, joins Sophie Mirabella and Cathy McGowan in photos at a Wodonga football match. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Mirabella/Pat Hutchens</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Phil Cleary, left-leaning one-time independent member for Wills, and Sophie Mirabella, the former Liberal MP for Indi who is trying to regain the seat, are far from political soulmates.</p>
<p>But on Saturday, when Cleary addressed a lunch before a Wodonga football match on the subject of violence against women, Mirabella asked for a photo with him, and posted it on Facebook.</p>
<p>Cleary had found himself caught in the picture wars.</p>
<p>A couple of hours later Cathy McGowan, the independent who in 2013 beat Mirabella, arrived at the ground. Cleary, feeling in distinctly more comfortable political company, posed with her too. The House of Representatives needed more progressive independents to change the national conversation, he said.</p>
<p>The fight for this northern Victorian electorate that a few years ago was rock solid for the Liberals is complex and intense. As a human tale, it is all about Mirabella, a driven woman who squandered the prize of a safe electorate but won’t let go.</p>
<p>Politically, it is a test of whether this regional community is satisfied with a member who can only wield limited clout – except if there were a hung parliament. Then there is the sub-story – the entry into the field of the Nationals, pushing for advantage on the weakness of an unpopular Liberal contender.</p>
<p>Indi, an Aboriginal name for the Murray River, is a rural electorate that at its southwest end is close to the outskirts of Melbourne; its northern boundary extends to the NSW border. Its main centres are Wodonga and Wangaratta; it contains picturesque tourist towns such as Beechworth and Bright, the Alps country and Falls Creek. A federation seat, its occupants have included Isaac Isaacs, who later became governor-general, and the Country Party’s legendary “Black Jack” McEwen.</p>
<p>Indi hasn’t seen a Labor member since the Great Depression, so this is not your normal “marginal” seat. But in 2013 McGowan won by just 439 votes, beating Mirabella 50.2%-49.8% on the two-party vote, after Mirabella polled 44.7% of the primary vote and McGowan 31.2%. </p>
<p>A ReachTEL poll done in March for the Australia Institute showed McGowan in a winning position. Federal Liberals are dismissive of Mirabella’s prospects, regarding McGowan as dug in. ABC election analyst Antony Green points out that traditionally independents elected in seats like this increase their vote in the second election. But with both the Liberals and Nationals in the field, the outcome remains uncertain.</p>
<p>A Melbourne lawyer and therefore an outsider, Mirabella won the seat in 2001. A high-flyer, she was very close to Tony Abbott and would have been the second woman in the initial Abbott cabinet. But in a major revolt against her neglect of them and her abrasive style, her constituents bucked the national pro-Coalition swing to throw her out. The whack had been on the way for a while and only needed the right candidate to deliver it: Mirabella’s vote dropped from 63% in 2004, to 54% in 2007, 53% in 2010, and 45% in 2013.</p>
<p>Mirabella persuaded the Liberal Party to keep an office in this electorate it no longer held. As she geared up for a comeback bid, her tone was that of one seeking redemption: she accepted she’d not listened, indicating that she’d got the message, she’d changed.</p>
<p>But then she didn’t seem to have changed at all. Things tanked. It was reported in the Benalla Ensign that she’d pushed McGowan to deny her a picture opportunity – Mirabella rejects the allegation and there are legal letters. She claimed Indi was denied hospital funding she’d had in the bag before the 2013 election because it elected McGowan. Senior Liberals knew of no such money. An ABC 7.30 interview with comedian Libbi Gorr didn’t go well.</p>
<p>Mirabella, who once relished her high profile, now declines to do interviews with the national media. As far as they are concerned, she’s in the bunker.</p>
<p>Liberal ministers have weighed in to help her. Treasurer Scott Morrison made an appearance – unfortunately for him, just when the hospital story had exploded. Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer, the minister for vocational education and skills, Scott Ryan, and Communications Minister Mitch Fifield have campaigned. Ryan says he and his colleagues have found “strong support” for her. She is not on Malcolm Turnbull’s immediate visiting schedule. Abbott keeps in touch but doesn’t have plans to go to Indi at this point.</p>
<p>The Nationals are looking to the future. If McGowan, 62, holds on, that will end Mirabella’s Indi ambitions and the Nationals could be well placed after a McGowan retirement in 2019. Going into the three-cornered contest late last year the Nationals were on about 8%. They have been encouraged by support for their candidate, 36-year old Marty Corboy, who is part of the family stockfeed business in Wangaratta. He’s had Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and deputy Fiona Nash, whom he describes as “a little superstar”, on the trail with him.</p>
<p>Corboy gets a strong rap from an unlikely quarter. Michael Cooney, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre, Labor’s think-tank, and Julia Gillard’s former speech writer, who has known him for years, says: “He’s a good bloke – he’d have my second preference [after Labor] if I were voting in Indi. He’s a quite positive product of a new conservative generation that’s post the culture wars. He’s just got his positions – he’s not a cranky contrarian.”</p>
<p>Last time the Nationals ran, in 2001, their vote was about 12%. Corboy will pick up some votes from both McGowan and Mirabella. In 2013 McGowan was helped by support from certain Nationals, including former state MP Ken Jasper, who now endorses Corboy.</p>
<p>The order in which the top three candidates come in and the flow of preferences will be crucial.</p>
<p>McGowan says: “I think it’s going to be very close.” Although Mirabella and Corboy will exchange preferences, McGowan believes many of their preferences will in fact go to her, especially given both Coalition candidates are well to the right, in contrast to her centrist position.</p>
<p>On same-sex marriage, for example, Corboy – who once ran as a Family First candidate in a state seat – welcomes the government’s proposed plebiscite, but when pressed on what he’d do if elected on the enabling bill after a “yes” vote says “I’d have to see the legislation”.</p>
<p>McGowan says: “I’m hoping that the National Party people will consider giving me their second preference and I’m hoping that Liberal Party people will think – certainly the ones in Wodonga – [that they] don’t see their answer in the National party and they will consider giving me their preferences.”</p>
<p>Mirabella and Corboy push the argument they can deliver in a re-elected Turnbull government. Corboy, who describes Mirabella as a polarising figure, says: “Indi is a conservative seat. There were many reasons why the current member was elected”, but “people coming to me think they are better served by someone around the table of government”.</p>
<p>The issue of who can deliver is one voters talk about. McGowan, who cites her role in obtaining the substantial number of phone towers allocated to the electorate (disputed by Mirabella) and in helping persuade some crossbench senators to oppose deregulating universities, says: “It is not true that the only way to get things done is to be a member of the governing party. Parliament works on your ability to work with people and get things through the system.”</p>
<p>Indi, she says, has moved from being a safe seat that was ignored to one that’s “competitive” – “everyone is paying attention and knows their vote is going to count and the current government is paying attention”. She points to Morrison’s visit just before the budget.</p>
<p>A grassroots campaign won in 2013 for McGowan, who was a popular local with a farm high in the mountainous country near Beechworth. This time she has some 600 volunteers signed up, campaign “hubs” in the major centres and A$90,000 raised already. There are no big donors, she says.</p>
<p>McGowan cut substantially into the Labor vote in 2013, which suffered a swing of 16.5% on primaries, falling to 11.7%. Eric Kerr, a local councillor from Wodonga, is Labor’s candidate this time; he is the 22-year old son of lesbian parents and same-sex marriage is one of his big issues. He’s also an open critic of Labor’s tough border protection policy. </p>
<p>The Greens’ Jenny O'Connor, a nurse who works in the mental health area, is contesting the seat for the fourth time. Wangaratta GP Julian Fidge is badged as “Australian Country Party” and there is an independent candidate, Alan Lappin, from near Rutherglen.</p>
<p>Because of its special and interesting aspects the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis has chosen Indi for its 2016 Election Project. Two focus groups comprising “soft” voters – people who have not decided definitely how they will vote – were held in Wodonga last week. The discussions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-mcgowan-lacks-clout-mirabella-is-embarrassing-say-local-soft-voters-60220">presented in a separate article</a>. There will be further focus group reporting later in the campaign.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/5b482-5fc04a?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/5b482-5fc04a?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Phil Cleary, left-leaning one-time independent member for Wills, and Sophie Mirabella, the former Liberal MP for Indi who is trying to regain the seat, are far from political soulmates.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraAdrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602202016-05-30T14:05:41Z2016-05-30T14:05:41ZThe Indi Project: McGowan lacks clout, Mirabella is embarrassing, say local ‘soft’ voters<p>Independent member for Indi Cathy McGowan is seen very positively in focus group research in her Victorian seat of Indi – except for one thing.</p>
<p>The political non-alignment that helped her turf out Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013 is regarded as her greatest weakness in the 2016 contest.</p>
<p>In contrast, Mirabella is stridently criticised for her manner and behaviour – but her affiliation with a major party is a plus.</p>
<p>The University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis has commissioned Landscape Research to do three rounds of focus groups with “soft” voters in Indi. These are people who have not yet decided definitely who they will vote for on July 2.</p>
<p>Two groups were conducted in Wodonga on May 24, with participants from Wodonga, Wangaratta, Beechworth and Yackandandah. One had eight voters, predominantly retirees, aged between 55-75; the 18-54 age group had nine participants who were mainly working or at home with children. Both groups had roughly equal numbers of men and women and a mix of socioeconomic backgrounds. Each discussion lasted two hours.</p>
<p>A sense of disappointment was evident about the choice of candidates on offer at this election, as well as the wider issue of the quality of candidates generally that the major parties put forward.</p>
<p>For their own representative, these Indi voters want the best of all worlds: someone approachable and accessible who listens, communicates, follows up, fights for them – and has influence in government to get things done.</p>
<p>“We need to know we are heard,” said one participant, while another believed the ideal representative should be “approachable, be a local and know where the needs are and [be] a party member so the member has influence and power”. But not too senior – “if they become too important then they can’t do their job”.</p>
<p>McGowan rates strongly for fighting for Indi, being hard working, approachable, responsive and a good communicator.</p>
<p>“I wrote to her and Cathy wrote back and had a different view to mine, but at least she responded,” an older voter said; another had noted she’d “jumped on the [dairy] issue” – which is big in this electorate – “and been very supportive”.</p>
<p>But only one person cited her status as an independent as a positive.</p>
<p>“She ticks a lot of boxes as a good local member, but her independent status is also seen as her greatest weakness, and there is a strong sense that the quality of representation for the electorate is seriously compromised as a result,” the research report concludes.</p>
<p>This was reflected in comments such as: “helpful although she couldn’t progress my issue personally”; “no influence. Difficult to get things done. She can’t get funding to the area”; “independent, so little influence in major decision-making”.</p>
<p>Mirabella’s positives are her experience, personal strength, legal background and having affiliation with a major party. “With the backing of a large party, she is more likely to get things done,” said one participant.</p>
<p>But while McGowan’s only – but significant – downside is seen as her being an independent, Mirabella carries heavy baggage.</p>
<p>She draws fire for “her apparent aloofness from the people and the appearance of personal ambition over the interests of the electorate. Some are quite scathing of her and more than one refer to embarrassing”, the report says.</p>
<p>The cutting assessment from a member of the older group was that “she’s embarrassing. She got thrown out of Question Time for very belligerent behaviour. She’s brought ill-repute to Wodonga”; another described her as “a show pony, glory-seeking, embarrassment to the electorate”. A younger participant said she was “entitled, stubborn, obtuse, egocentric”.</p>
<p>“There is a sense from some that Mirabella has blotted her copybook so badly there is no coming back,” the report says. “However, this view is balanced by others who applaud her strength, value her party affiliation and potential influence in government, and would vote for her because she is the Liberal candidate.”</p>
<p>The younger voters had heard of the Nationals’ Marty Corboy, but there was less recognition of him among the older people. So far, he had been largely defined by his comment that he’d found “people in the electorate are pleased to have a bloke to vote for”.</p>
<p>These Indi voters were, for the most part, still disengaged from the election. They are “cranky and indignant about the way their electorate has become the focus of national attention vis-a-vis the intensely personal McGowan/Mirabella contest”, the research found. “They are embarrassed about the subject matter that is gaining them national attention and about the skewed portrayal of them and their electorate, and it convinces them the electoral process really is removed from their everyday lives.”</p>
<p>This is particularly evident in their struggle to name issues at the fore of the election campaign. They see the election as a spending game, or a blame game, or both. “It should be called a money fight. It shouldn’t be called an election,” said one in the younger group. Younger voters are particularly disappointed in their political representatives, noting the broken promises of politicians all round.</p>
<p>Such is the disengagement of these Indi soft voters that they expect the election to be about the “same normal stuff”, “schools, hospitals, etc”, yet they were unable to recount any specific announcement they had heard on these issues.</p>
<p>When pushed on what they remembered of the campaign, economic issues dominated, particularly jobs, the budget and taxation. Younger soft voters especially are sceptical about promises on jobs, feeling the numbers are rubbery and that the jobs prospects are likely to be short-term, part-time or casual positions when they want long-term meaningful employment.</p>
<p>Issues about Wodonga hospital make health funding a significant issue. Various aspects of ageing, from aged care to superannuation, were mentioned. People had not heard much about education. Training, employment, and recreational opportunities for young people in the area were a concern.</p>
<p>The issue of refugees/boats people/detention was seen to be to the fore early in the national campaign. But “interestingly, these Indi soft voters do not see it as an ‘election issue’ but rather an ongoing, complex shambles that neither of the major parties can, or is willing to, solve”, the report says. The current policy of offshore detention is seen as not working but people are divided on whether there is a solution.</p>
<p>“If there is a demand for workers, let them in”, said a member of the younger group. But an older person believed “there are rules for immigration and these need to be followed”.</p>
<p>Indi voters’ immediate response when talking about the local campaign is the head-to-head Mirabella-McGowan contest and their annoyance at the media coverage. Beyond that, a key concern is jobs. They talk with animation about mobile telephone black spots (although it is not an unprompted issue of concern) and are frustrated by the inability of governments to deliver an uninterrupted rail link from Wodonga to Melbourne. There is a strong perceived need for greater health funding locally and a wish for more investment in infrastructure.</p>
<p>“Indi voters have a keen sense that they are missing out as a regional area, when compared to more populous locales. Lack of support for local farming, fruit growers, health, and hospitals, are all cited as evidence of lack of interest from government,” the report says.</p>
<p>When discussion turns to the national leaders, these Indi voters had no strong opinions on Malcolm Turnbull and his performance in the campaign so far. Older voters see him tracking steadily. But this is early days and they are expecting more momentum from him.</p>
<p>While one in the older group found him “much more genuine” than Tony Abbott, it’s also noted that he is “not doing so well with the country people – talking jobs and growth – but needs to look to the regions”.</p>
<p>There is a sense of disappointment among some older voters that Turnbull is somehow being constrained and not living up to their expectations. “I’d like to see more fire,” said one; another noted Turnbull “hasn’t had the backing of his party to do what he wants to do”.</p>
<p>Younger voters don’t have the same sense of expectation about Turnbull and are unenthusiastic without being negative. “He is more emotionally stable than Bill, more experienced and [has] better knowledge of finance which means he is better at managing the economy,” said one.</p>
<p>In contrast, more voters find more to complain about with Bill Shorten – especially his “negativity” and big spending promises. He is “spending a lot of money which has me concerned” said an older voter; a younger one said “he seems cocky and I don’t feel I can trust him”.</p>
<p>Awareness of Treasurer Scott Morrison was particularly low among the younger voters, with fewer than half having heard of him. Older voters described him in the budget context: “the money spender”; “did OK with the budget”.</p>
<p>The possibility of a hung parliament disappoints many. Looking back, one participant said, “On the world stage we look foolish. We became a nation run by the Greens last time”. Looking forward, another said, “We have a problem with the system if it came down to this”.</p>
<p>These Indi voters have mixed views about McGowan holding the balance of power in a hung parliament. On the one hand they believe they could and should trust the local member they elected to make decisions on behalf of the nation. “She tends to listen, step back, make inquiries then step forward. I don’t think she is swayed by big carrots.”</p>
<p>On the other hand, some feel uneasy at the prospect of so much power in one person’s hands. “I am unsure which way she would vote on many issues, which scares me.”</p>
<p>People were asked how they voted at the last election. Of those who could recall, nine had voted for McGowan, four in the older group and five in the younger. Five had voted for Mirabella, three older and two younger.</p>
<p>Asked how they thought they would vote this time six said for McGowan, evenly split on age; four said Mirabella, also evenly split, while Corboy had the support of one in the older group and three in the younger. There were three “others”.</p>
<p>They were then asked who would get their second preferences. McGowan received five (two older, three younger), Mirabella got four (evenly split) and Corboy seven (four older, three younger), with “others” one.</p>
<p>The researcher notes that while these results have no statistical validity “a key finding is that conservative voters are not automatically giving their preferences to the other conservative (Liberal or National) candidate; some are preferencing McGowan. As well, both conservatives picked up preferences from McGowan primary voters”.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-sophie-mirabella-in-the-bunker-60223">The Indi Project: Sophie Mirabella in the bunker</a></strong></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Independent member for Indi Cathy McGowan is seen very positively in focus group research in her Victorian seat of Indi – except for one thing.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/560872016-03-10T19:20:19Z2016-03-10T19:20:19ZGrattan on Friday: Windsor’s challenge will mess with Joyce’s susceptible mind<p>Barnaby Joyce should be afraid. The Nationals profess they’ll hold New England, and Joyce is the favourite. But Tony Windsor is likely to drive him mad and in these days of voter disillusionment, anything can happen.</p>
<p>There will be two riveting contests involving independents at the fast-approaching election – Windsor’s bid to grab back his old NSW seat and MP Cathy McGowan’s fight to hold Indi, in Victoria, against the attempt by former occupant Liberal Sophie Mirabella to regain it.</p>
<p>Both Windsor and McGowan invoke “people power” and localism, and tap into the disenchantment many people feel with major parties.</p>
<p>If McGowan was defeated in Indi, the biggest story would be that Mirabella, who lost the seat in 2013 because she’d neglected it and alienated many people, had made a comeback.</p>
<p>If Joyce were defeated, there would be a huge fallout, with the Nationals searching a thin field for a new leader who, assuming the Turnbull government was re-elected, would become deputy prime minister.</p>
<p>The New England contest will be about many things, but in particular it will test how Joyce handles extreme pressure. Windsor – he of the beaming smile and killer instinct – will mess with Joyce’s susceptible mind. </p>
<p>Windsor plays the man and he plays rough. Joyce has always been a favourite target, described as one of the “Abbott crazies”, an “idiot”, a “vandal” and much else. Windsor gets away with personal attacks where others would not.</p>
<p>Joyce is a volatile character; he has proved himself resilient but he’s easily agitated. Keeping his cool in the face of relentless Windsor strikes will stretch his discipline.</p>
<p>The Windsor assault could not have come at a worse time. Joyce has just stepped up to two positions – the Nationals leadership and the deputy prime ministership that it brings – that are both highly demanding.</p>
<p>Now he has to meet the challenge of these roles with the debilitating distraction of having to defend his seat. He can’t cede his wider responsibility. He is an exceptional retail politician – as leader he needs to be travelling the country to support Nationals candidates. There is no-one who can take his place. But it could be dangerous for him if he doesn’t spend enough time in his home base. Striking the balance will be a fine judgement.</p>
<p>At his Thursday Canberra news conference announcing his run, Windsor showed his skill at creating a political narrative. He is weaving the local story into the national one on issues including the NBN, climate change and Gonski. This helps his wider profile and will encourage support – money and people – to come from outside New England to assist him.</p>
<p>He and Joyce share opposition to the proposed Shenhua coal mine – now outside the electorate following the redistribution – but Windsor does not accept Joyce’s good faith. He accuses him of “sham opposition” and being complicit in the neglect of some of the processes that could have been put in place to examine the proposal.</p>
<p>Some New England voters may relish the chance to give the government a kick, especially if they think it is home and hosed. Others might harbour resentment about Windsor joining forces with the Gillard government. Interestingly, he indicates that in the highly unlikely situation he was a balance of power player again, he’d probably hang loose rather than enter an agreement.</p>
<p>Windsor told his news conference he liked Malcolm Turnbull. “But he’s got to start and do something. And the reason he can’t do it, one of those reasons, is his deputy dog”. He said Joyce and his ilk, who were not prepared to embrace the future, put a handbrake on Turnbull.</p>
<p>With July 2 now shaping up as the most favoured election date, Windsor is quite right that Turnbull has to “do something”. It’s also true Turnbull’s hands are tied on some issues by the Liberal right and his Coalition deal with the Nationals. But the government’s drift can’t be explained in those simple terms. It has much wider parentage and Turnbull himself must take the prime responsibility.</p>
<p>“The world is going fine, as soon as we find our tax plan,” quips one government man. Meeting in Adelaide this week, ministers settled down to more work on the shrunken tax package, amid talk of bringing the budget forward by a week to May 3 to facilitate a July 2 poll, for which momentum has built even if it is not inevitable.</p>
<p>An example of drift on another front was highlighted when Education Minister Simon Birmingham addressed a Universities Australia dinner in Canberra on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Birmingham told his audience there would be a choice at the election “between a Turnbull government that wants to make demand-driven, equitable access to universities financially sustainable for the long term” and a Shorten opposition that “for now promises largely more of the same” with an uncertain long term that could include the recapping of places.</p>
<p>There is a gaping hole in this presentation. Labor has produced a higher education policy. After its earlier fiasco over fee deregulation, the Coalition doesn’t yet have a replacement policy to say how it would make universities “financially sustainable for the long term”.</p>
<p>The government is filling its policy vacuum by hyping to the max its attacks on Labor’s offerings. Turnbull described Labor’s proposed cutback of negative gearing as “an extraordinary restriction on economic freedom”. Labor, he said, was making tax policy on the run. In contrast, the snippy might say, to the government’s making it at a crawl.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce should be afraid. The Nationals profess they’ll hold New England, and Joyce is the favourite. But Tony Windsor is likely to drive Joyce mad.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.