tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/clean-energy-2587/articlesClean energy – The Conversation2024-02-28T04:09:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245132024-02-28T04:09:29Z2024-02-28T04:09:29ZDutton wants a ‘mature debate’ about nuclear power. By the time we’ve had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal<p>If you believe Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review, Australia wants to go nuclear – as long as it’s small. </p>
<p>Newspoll this week <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">suggests a majority</a> of us are in favour of building small modular nuclear reactors. A <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/afr-readers-want-small-nuclear-reactors-considered-20230723-p5dqi9">poll of Australian Financial Review readers</a> last year told a similar story.</p>
<p>These polls (and a more general question about nuclear power in a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-warm-to-nuclear-as-billionaire-andrew-forrest-slams-coalition-bulldust-20240226-p5f7wo.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers this week) come after a concerted effort by the Coalition to normalise talking about nuclear power – specifically, the small, modular kind that’s meant to be cheaper and safer. Unfortunately, while small reactors have been around for decades, they are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223015980">generally costlier</a> than larger reactors with a similar design. This reflects the economies of size associated with larger boilers. </p>
<p>The hope (and it’s still only a hope) is “modular” design will permit reactors to be built in factories in large numbers (and therefore at low cost), then shipped to the sites where they are installed.</p>
<p>Coalition enthusiasm for talking about small modular reactors has not been dented by the failure of the only serious proposal to build them: that of NuScale, a company that designs and markets these reactors in the United States. Faced with long delays and increases in the projected costs of the <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/products/voygr-smr-plants">Voygr reactor</a>, the intended buyers, a <a href="https://www.uamps.com/">group of municipal power utilities</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs">pulled the plug</a>. The project had a decade of development behind it but had not even reached prototype stage. </p>
<p>Other proposals to build small modular reactors abound but none are likely to be constructed anywhere before the mid-2030s, if at all. Even if they work as planned (<a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/small-nuclear-reactors-come-with-big-price-tag-report/">a big if</a>), they will arrive too late to replace coal power in Australia. So Opposition Leader Peter Dutton needs to put up a detailed plan for how he would deliver nuclear power in time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<h2>So why would Australians support nuclear?</h2>
<p>It is worth looking at the claim that Australians support nuclear power. This was the question the Newspoll asked:</p>
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<p>There is a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
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<p>This question assumes two things. First, that small modular reactors exist. Second, that someone is proposing to build and operate them, presumably expecting they can do so at a cost low enough to compete with alternative energy sources. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, neither is true. Nuclear-generated power <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">costs up to ten times as much</a> as solar and wind energy. A more accurate phrasing of the question would be:</p>
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<p>There is a proposal to keep coal-fired power stations operating until the development of small modular reactors which might, in the future, supply zero-emissions energy. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
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<p>It seems unlikely such a proposal would gain majority support.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/military-interests-are-pushing-new-nuclear-power-and-the-uk-government-has-finally-admitted-it-216118">Military interests are pushing new nuclear power – and the UK government has finally admitted it</a>
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<h2>Building nuclear takes a long time</h2>
<p>When we consider the timeline for existing reactor projects, the difficulties with nuclear power come into sharp focus.</p>
<p>As National Party Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie has <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/that-is-rubbish-bridget-zali-steggall-and-bridget-mckenzie-clash-over-nuclear/video/652fb62845ef39da803325f0f14bd49d">pointed out</a>, the most successful recent implementation of nuclear power has been in the United Arab Emirates. In 2008, the UAE president (and emir of Abi Dhabi), Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, announced a plan to build four nuclear reactors. Construction started in 2012. The last reactor is about to be connected to the grid, 16 years after the project was announced.</p>
<p>The UAE’s performance is better than that achieved recently <a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/nuclear-construction-time">in Western countries</a> including the US, UK, France and Finland.</p>
<p>In 16 years’ time, by 2040, most of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations will have shut down. Suppose the Coalition gained office in 2025 on a program of advocating nuclear power and managed to pass the necessary legislation in 2026. If we could match the pace of the UAE, nuclear power stations would start coming online just in time to replace them. </p>
<p>If we spent three to five years discussing the issue, then matched the UAE schedule, the plants would arrive too late.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-australia-to-join-the-nuclear-renaissance-but-this-dream-has-failed-before-209584">Dutton wants Australia to join the "nuclear renaissance" – but this dream has failed before</a>
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<h2>It would take longer in Australia</h2>
<p>Would it be possible to match the UAE schedule? The UAE had no need to pass legislation: it doesn’t have a parliament like ours, let alone a Senate that can obstruct government legislation. The necessary institutions, including a regulatory commission and a publicly owned nuclear power firm, were established by decree.</p>
<p>There were no problems with site selection, not to mention environmental impact statements and court actions. The site at Barakah was conveniently located on an almost uninhabited stretch of desert coastline, but still close enough to the main population centres to permit a connection to transmission lines, access for workers, and so on. There’s nowhere in Australia’s eastern states (where the power is needed) that matches that description.</p>
<p>Finally, there are no problems with strikes or union demands: both are illegal in the UAE. Foreign workers with even less rights than Emirati citizens did almost all the construction work.</p>
<p>Despite all these advantages, the UAE has not gone any further with nuclear power. Instead of building more reactors after the first four, it’s <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/energy/uae-new-1500mw-solar-plant-to-be-developed-in-abu-dhabi-will-power-160000-homes">investing massively</a> in solar power and battery storage.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-minister-chris-bowen-says-replacing-coal-fired-power-stations-with-nuclear-would-cost-387-billion-213735">Climate minister Chris Bowen says replacing coal-fired power stations with nuclear would cost $387 billion</a>
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<h2>Time to start work is running out</h2>
<p>The Coalition began calling for a “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/peter-dutton-calls-for-mature-debate-over-nuclear-energy/news-story/bb023ce4ee8691c1709b772876f6beca">mature debate</a>” on nuclear <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/06/the-coalition-didnt-do-much-on-nuclear-energy-while-in-office-why-are-they-talking-about-it-now">immediately after losing office</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s now too late for discussion. If Australia is to replace any of our retiring coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors, Dutton must commit to this goal before the 2025 election. </p>
<p>Talk about hypothetical future technologies is, at this point, nothing more than a distraction. If Dutton is serious about nuclear power in Australia, he needs to put forward a plan now. It must spell out a realistic timeline that includes the establishment of necessary regulation, the required funding model and the sites to be considered.</p>
<p>In summary, it’s time to put up or shut up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Small modular reactors are popular among conservative politicians and supposedly the Australian public. But they’re nowhere near ready to power Australia in time to replace coal-powered stations.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241482024-02-27T22:57:44Z2024-02-27T22:57:44ZWe can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578151/original/file-20240227-24-2wzo6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-cloud-details-530178991">Janelle Lugge/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 13, six transmission line towers in Victoria were destroyed by extreme wind gusts from thunderstorms, leading to forced electricity outages affecting tens of thousands of people. The intense winds knocked trees onto local power lines or toppled the poles, which caused about 500,000 people to lose power. Some people went without electricity for more than a week. A month earlier, severe thunderstorms and wind <a href="https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/storm-destroyed-transmission-line-rebuilt-and-re-energised/">took out</a> five transmission towers in Western Australia and caused widespread outages. </p>
<p>Intense thunderstorm events have made news in recent years, including the January 2020 storms that caused the collapse of <a href="https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Cressy_500kV_Tower_Incident_31Jan2020_report.pdf">six transmission towers in Victoria</a>. Perhaps the most far-reaching storms were those in 2016, when all of South Australia lost power for several hours after <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/thunderstorm-reports/Severe_Thunderstorm_and_Tornado_Outbreak_28_September_2016.pdf">extreme winds</a> damaged many transmission towers. </p>
<p>So are these thunderstorms with extreme winds getting worse as the climate changes? It’s possible, but we can’t yet say for sure. That’s partly because thunderstorms involve small-scale processes harder to study than bigger weather systems. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<h2>How can wind topple a giant transmission tower?</h2>
<p>Many people saw the photos of transmission towers bent like thin wire and wondered how it was possible.</p>
<p>The reason is physics. When wind hits a structure, the force it applies is roughly proportional to the wind speed squared. When wind gusts are stronger than about 100 kilometres per hour, even just for a few seconds, there can be a risk of damage to infrastructure. </p>
<p>Direction matters too. Wind has greater force when it blows more directly towards a surface. If strong winds blow from an unusual direction, risk of damage can also increase. Old trees, for instance, may be more firmly braced against prevailing winds – but if storm winds blow from another direction, they might topple onto power lines. </p>
<p>On February 13, a strong cold front was approaching Victoria from the southeast, bringing thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts over 120 km/h after a period of extreme heat. Thunderstorms can create extremely strong and localised gusty winds, sometimes called “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts">microbursts</a>” due to cold heavy air falling rapidly out of the clouds. These winds were enough to bend towers and topple trees and poles. </p>
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<h2>Are these thunderstorm winds getting worse?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">Scientific evidence</a> clearly shows climate change is steadily worsening hazards such as extreme heatwaves and bushfires, which can damage our grid and energy systems. </p>
<p>On balance, evidence suggests tropical cyclones may become less frequent but more severe on average. All but one of Australia’s tropical cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season">this summer</a> have been severe (Category 3 or higher).</p>
<p>But we aren’t yet certain what climate change does to extreme winds from thunderstorms.</p>
<p>This is because high-quality observations of past thunderstorms are relatively rare, with large variability in how often storms occur and their severity, and because climate models have difficulties simulating the small-scale processes which give rise to thunderstorms.</p>
<p>The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/severethunder.shtml#formation">thunderstorms to form</a>. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture. </p>
<p>We also know the severity of thunderstorms can be affected by <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81211-vertical-wind-shear-and-convective-storms">vertical wind shear</a>, which is the way the wind changes with height. To date, we’re less certain about how wind shear will change in the future.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD034633">Recent research</a> by coauthor Andrew Brown and the lead author suggests climate change is likely causing more favourable conditions for thunderstorms with damaging winds, particularly in inland regions of Australia. But the methods used for these predictions are new, meaning more research needs to be done for further insight on what climate change will do to extreme winds.</p>
<h2>We shouldn’t wait to find out</h2>
<p>Modelling extreme wind gusts is still in its infancy. But given so much of our electricity grid is exposed to extreme winds, it’s important we try to address this gap in our knowledge.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say we should treat these storms as a warning. We should factor the risks from extreme winds into how we design our energy systems. It’s especially important as we build a grid able to handle clean energy that we anticipate these kinds of risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>Hardening the grid by burying powerlines and removing vegetation isn’t the only option. We could build a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275411779_The_Grid_Stronger_Bigger_Smarter_Presenting_a_Conceptual_Framework_of_Power_System_Resilience">smarter grid</a>, with distributed renewables and energy storage including large as well as relatively smaller (e.g., community-level or household-level) batteries, giving the grid greater resilience including against extreme weather events.</p>
<p>In the wake of South Australia’s devastating 2016 <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aemc_-_sa_black_system_review_-_final_report.pdf">grid outage</a>, authorities moved to boost grid resilience in this way, building big batteries, more renewables and new interconnectors, while Australia’s energy market operator AEMO changed how it <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">dealt with windfarms</a> if grid issues occur. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<p>Power grids are the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a44067133/how-does-the-power-grid-work/">largest machines</a> in the world. As we move to a clean energy grid, we face complex challenges – not just in building it, but in protecting it against extreme weather. </p>
<p>We would be well served if we work to better understand the risks of compound events, such as combinations of extreme winds, fires or floods hitting a region around the same time. </p>
<p>We also need accurate predictions of risks shortly before extreme winds or other disasters strike, as well as effective long-term planning for the risks likely to increase due to climate change or during different climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.</p>
<p>If we get this response wrong, our energy bills will rise too much and, worse, we still might not have a more resilient system. Since our energy networks are regulated by a complex set of government rules, reform is not just something for industry to address. It must ultimately be led by government – and guided by evidence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather-224142">Victoria's power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the University of Melbourne's Melbourne Energy Institute and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Vincent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brear receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies. These companies include those that are responsible for energy networks, energy generation, energy retail and energy use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierluigi Mancarella receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies, include those that are responsible for energy networks, generation, retail and use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Extreme winds from thunderstorms have downed transmission towers from Victoria to Western Australia in recent years. What’s going on?Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneAndrew Brown, Ph.D. student, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneClaire Vincent, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneMichael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbournePierluigi Mancarella, Chair Professor of Electrical Power Systems, The University of MelbourneTodd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231642024-02-26T21:18:58Z2024-02-26T21:18:58ZRenewable energy innovation isn’t just good for the climate — it’s also good for the economy<p>As the climate crisis escalates, there are urgent and difficult choices that need to be made to drastically <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2023/03/20/press-release-ar6-synthesis-report/">reduce our carbon emissions</a> before more <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">irreparable damage</a> is done. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.iea.org/news/new-iea-report-highlights-the-need-and-means-for-the-oil-and-gas-industry-to-drastically-cut-emissions-from-its-operations">Many have argued the energy industry needs to change</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c">reduce carbon emissions</a>, but one concern that remains is the consequence this will have on economic prosperity. </p>
<p>Discussions vary across interest groups. Do we need to outright <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2023/08/16/shut-down-60-percent-existing-fossil-fuel-extraction-1-5c/">replace the fossil fuel industry with the renewable energy industry</a> as soon as possible? Should we slowly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w">phase out fossil fuels while making clean renewable replacements</a>? Or, should we <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-We-Still-Need-Oil-Gas-For-Decades-To-Come.html">continue with a powerful fossil fuel industry</a> while separately growing a renewable industry in parallel? </p>
<p>How these different choices could impact our economies seems unclear, and it is this lack of clarity that opens up the field for frustrating discussions. At the recent COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates, the conference president shockingly said that there is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">“no science”</a> behind any decision to phase-out fossil fuels from our energy systems — a statement which he later <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/04/cop28-backlash-after-president-claims-no-science-behind-fossil-fuel-phase-out">claimed was “misinterpreted.”</a> </p>
<p>My recent research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141018">examines energy industry restructuring options for a green transition to renewable energy</a> from an economic perspective.</p>
<p>Although economic analysis is helpful, it is not sufficient on its own for making these important decisions. So, my research also draws on <a href="http://www.un-documents.net/our-common-future.pdf">sustainability</a> which involves considering the conditions faced by future generations, and a concept known as <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/equifinality">equifinality</a> reminding us to keep our minds open to many possible approaches that may satisfy the same objectives.</p>
<h2>Renewable energy innovation and GDP</h2>
<p>My research indicates that renewable energy innovation contributes to higher GDP. Contrary to some commonly held beliefs, a clean transition is, and has been for at least a decade, good for the economy — even in earlier stages of its development. </p>
<p>My findings also suggest that <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-us-oil-and-gas-industry-works">government and industry support for the fossil fuel industry</a> negatively affects a country’s renewable energy innovation. The two industries are not compatible. </p>
<p>When the fossil fuel industry invests in itself, it also <a href="https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/the-oil-and-gas-sectors-contribution-to-canadas-economy-2/">appears to improve GDP</a>, which creates confusion about the best way to ensure economic prosperity while transitioning to clean energy.</p>
<p>But this investment, often made through <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cop28-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-1.7048746">lobbying</a>, only prolongs the existence of the fossil fuel industry by keeping renewable energy competition out. This creates a false dichotomy between reducing emissions and improving GDP when, in fact, clean innovation can achieve both simultaneously.</p>
<p>My research indicates that clean innovation makes a stronger economy <em>and</em> reduces emissions. If we want to reinforce that dual progress, rather than accepting trade-offs, then we have to stop supporting the fossil fuel industry which aims to slow it down.</p>
<h2>Helping renewable energy thrive</h2>
<p>Economically speaking, the fossil fuel industry is <a href="https://competition-policy.ec.europa.eu/about/why-competition-policy-important-consumers_en">negatively impacting consumer welfare</a> by maintaining <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-gas-enserva-report-industry-canadian-energy-sector-1.7059687">higher-than-necessary prices due to limited competition</a>. This, in turn, bumps up GDP through inflated profits, having subsidised an already dominant polluting industry, reducing clean innovation and delaying cleaner progress — obviously not the way to grow a healthy economy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp#toc-gdp-vs-gnp-vs-gni">In fact, GDP is not a standard of living measure or a measure of innovative competitiveness</a>. To address inflation and the cost of living crisis, we should be promoting more competition across industries. This is a more productive type of capitalism that brings wider benefits to all of us, including more innovation, lower prices, and better products for domestic and export markets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/opinions/we-must-stop-investing-in-the-fools-gold-that-is-fossil-fuel">Government subsidies</a> that boost the fossil fuel industry hinder consumer welfare and the transition to clean energy. Some examples include subsidies to fund more <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/12/08/report-canada-u-s-carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-public-subsidies-funding-oil-change-international/">carbon capture and storage technology</a> and the use of fossil energy in <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/federal-fossil-fuel-subsidies-tracking/">hydrogen storage systems</a>. </p>
<p>Instead of funding these backward subsidies, governments should implement <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/putting-price-on-carbon-pollution.html">pollution taxes</a> while also supporting renewable energy innovation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-owned-energy-companies-are-among-the-worlds-most-polluting-putting-a-price-on-carbon-could-help-213501">State-owned energy companies are among the world's most polluting – putting a price on carbon could help</a>
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<p>My research demonstrates that pollution taxes work well with clean innovation capabilities. Supporting research and innovation in renewable energy and using a carbon tax as a tool can boost the economic benefits of transitioning to clean energy.</p>
<p>The findings of my work suggest that a robust economy is related to industry restructuring so that renewable energy innovation can thrive. Fostering novel scientific discoveries in clean energy innovation should be prioritized while reducing non-competitive industry formations and organizations, such as fossil fuel oligopolies and industry associations.</p>
<h2>Making decisions with the future in mind</h2>
<p>Increasing public awareness and understanding of <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies-discourage-climate-action-study-says/">fossil fuel industry games</a> is a way to accelerate change. It’s important to recognize that industries at different <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/industrylifecycle.asp">life cycle stages</a> contribute to the economy in different ways. </p>
<p>A newer rising industry with determined entrepreneurs, like that of renewable energy, invests in innovation to create value. On the other hand, a declining industry plays end-game strategies, like engaging in self-promotional activities, to maintain their existing position and <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061115/how-strong-are-barriers-entry-oil-and-gas-sector.asp">create barriers to new industry entries</a>. </p>
<p>However, consumer welfare increases with competition, not collusion. Economic analysis is not sufficient on its own for decision-making in this area because positive economic outcomes can be generated by different kinds of strategies supporting an industry’s life cycle goals.</p>
<p>Government policy decisions should be made based on economic analyses alongside broader sustainability criteria. Ignoring the equifinality argument and reverting to discussions about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-13/cop28-deal-signals-role-for-gas-in-transition-to-clean-energy">replacing coal with gas as a bridge</a> only ensures fossil fuels remain in use for at least another generation of infrastructure. </p>
<p>Communities should apply sustainability and equifinality lenses to decision-making, understanding that there are many possible means to an end. For example, if a community has specific concerns about one type of renewable energy system, they should explore <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-renewable-energy">other alternative clean energy options</a> instead of defaulting to fossil fuels. </p>
<p>An educated public should reject simplistic and single-sided arguments and understand there are usually more nuanced solutions to problems supported by evidence-based analysis. By embracing a more holistic approach, we can develop more sustainable societies by opening up renewable energy possibilities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange receives funding from SSHRC and ESRC. She is a member of/volunteer for the Liberal Party of Canada and The Writers' Union of Canada.</span></em></p>Recent research about energy industry restructuring options for a green transition indicates that innovation in renewable energy positively influences GDP.Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239642024-02-26T18:59:49Z2024-02-26T18:59:49ZIs there an alternative to 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines? Yes – but you may not like it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576945/original/file-20240221-20-pfrp3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C5362%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/engineering-working-on-highvoltage-tower-check-604767788">Aunging/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Building transmission lines is often controversial. Farmers who agree to host new lines on their property may be paid, while other community members protest against the visual intrusion. Pushback against new lines has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/distrust-anxiety-in-regional-communities-over-renewables/103419062">slowed development</a> and forced the government to promise more consultation. </p>
<p>It’s not a new problem. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/161024868?searchTerm=transmission%20line%20protest">Communities questioned</a> the routes of earlier transmission lines built during the 1950s-70s to link new coal and hydroelectric plants to the cities. </p>
<p>But this time, the transition has to be done at speed. Shifting from the old coal grid to a green grid requires new transmission lines. In its future system planning, Australia’s energy market operator sees the need for 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines in the five states (and the Australian Capital Territory) which make up the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/NEM">National Energy Market</a>. </p>
<p>Do we need all of these new transmission lines? Or will the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-21/rooftop-solar-cells-in-australia-to-outperform-demand/103489806">staggering growth</a>” of solar on houses and warehouses coupled with cheaper energy storage mean some new transmission lines are redundant? </p>
<p>The answer depends on how we think of electricity. Is it an essential service that must be reliable more than 99.9% of the time? If so, yes, we need these new lines. But if we think of it as a regular service, we would accept a less reliable (99%) service in exchange for avoiding some new transmission lines. This would be a fundamental change in how we think of power. </p>
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<h2>Why do we need these new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>The old grid was built around connecting a batch of fossil fuel plants via transmission lines to consumers in the towns and cities. To build this grid – one of the world’s largest by distance covered – <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">required 40,000 km</a> of transmission lines. </p>
<p>The new grid is based around gathering energy from distributed renewables from many parts of the country. The market operator foresees a <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/transmission-infrastructure-lagging-as-planners-seek-to-balance-local-needs-20230904-p5e1st#:%7E:text=More%20than%2010%2C000%20kilometres%20of,the%20Australian%20Energy%20Market%20Operator.">nine-fold increase</a> in the total capacity of large scale solar and wind plants, which need transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s why the market operator lays out <a href="https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation">integrated systems plans</a> every two years. The goal is to give energy users the best value by designing the lowest-cost way to secure reliable energy able to meet any emissions goals set by policymakers. </p>
<p>To avoid having to build transmission lines everywhere, policymakers have opted to group renewables in “renewable energy zones” with good wind or solar resources, and build transmission lines just to the zones. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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<p>According to the market operator, the major reasons why we need such a strong transmission network are: </p>
<p>– to harness flows of variable renewable power from different regions to make sure the system is reliable </p>
<p>– to cope with outages or shortfalls in supply. If a cloud band cuts solar farm output in one state, the grid can draw on solar from another state. </p>
<p>– boosting regional economies with advanced manufacturing and production of emerging green products and technologies.</p>
<p>So while 10,000 km sounds like a lot, it’s been kept to the minimum. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="transmission lines on farmland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Transmission lines are necessary – but people often don’t want them nearby.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-voltage-lines-power-pylons-flat-224476993">Ruud Morijn Photographer/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What if rooftop solar takes over?</h2>
<p>Even so, some <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">energy insiders</a> question whether we need all these new transmission lines. </p>
<p>What if the growth of behind-the-meter energy resources such as rooftop solar, grid-connected home batteries and electric cars begin to cut demand from the grid? </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/how-generous-subsidies-helped-australia-to-become-a-leader-in-solar-power#:%7E:text=Roughly%20one%20in%20three%20Australian,on%20a%20per%20capita%20basis.">one in three households</a> now have solar on their rooftops – the highest solar take up per capita in the world. And as more electric cars arrive in driveways, we will start using their large batteries as a backup power supply for our homes – or to <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/these-ev-owners-are-making-thousands-selling-energy-back-to-the-grid-20231114-p5ejtw">sell the power</a> on the grid. Could it be that cities could make their own power, as Nationals leader David Littleproud has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-re-gonna-eat-bugs-climate-fears-and-conspiracies-at-canberra-renewables-protest-20240208-p5f3e8.html">called for</a>?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>Planners at Australia’s market operator do anticipate ever-greater levels of rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles. Their latest forecasts see these resources with enough capacity to power 30% of the grid by the end of the decade and 45% by mid-century. </p>
<p>These are substantial contributions, but not enough to power a nation. As we move to electrify everything, we will need to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/">roughly double</a> how much electricity we produce. Electricity is a much more efficient way to power transport, for instance, but switching from petrol to electric vehicles will mean more grid demand. </p>
<p>Having said that, we cannot be certain. When we model ways of giving up fossil fuels and ending emissions, there is always major uncertainty over what shape the future will take. Some technologies may splutter while others surge ahead. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="recharging electric car with grid in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Over time, more of us will use electric vehicle batteries to store power or to send it back to the grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-woman-recharge-ev-electric-car-2388670547">Owlie Productions/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>We could trade new transmission lines for a less reliable supply</h2>
<p>At present, electricity is considered an essential service under <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Reliability%20Standard%20Factsheet.pd">national electricity laws</a>. That means there has to be enough power 99.998% of the time. To meet that threshold, outages have to be kept to ten minutes in a year. </p>
<p>Making electricity an essential service is a choice. We could choose differently. If we decided electricity should be a regular service, where 99% reliability is OK (translating to outages of up to 87 hours a year), we would be able to get away with fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s because wealthier households would likely respond to more outages by investing more in big solar arrays and batteries. Some would become energy self-sufficient and cut ties with the grid. </p>
<p>In this scenario, self-generation by the rich would mean a reduced demand on the grid, and we might be able to get away with building fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>But we should be careful here. If we took this approach, we would reshape society. The rich would be insulated while poorer households deal with the pain of power outages. The idea of the grid as a public good would begin to disappear. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-transmission-lines-are-controversial-for-nearby-communities-but-batteries-and-virtual-lines-could-cut-how-many-we-need-208018">New transmission lines are controversial for nearby communities. But batteries and virtual lines could cut how many we need</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s main grid has 40,000 km of transmission lines. Building another 10,000 km quickly is proving hard.Magnus Söderberg, Professor & Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith UniversityPhillip Wild, Senior Research Fellow, CAEEPR, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241422024-02-22T19:19:00Z2024-02-22T19:19:00ZVictoria’s power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?<p>Last week’s destructive storm took Victoria by surprise. As winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour raced through the state, transmission towers near Geelong toppled and the grid went into chaos. </p>
<p>At its worst, almost one in five Victorian homes were left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/victorias-electricity-spot-prices-soar-as-states-largest-coal-generator-suffers-outage">without electricity</a>
while the main transmission system came <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/market_notices_and_events/power_system_incident_reports/2024/preliminary-report---loss-of-moorabool---sydenham-500-kv-lines-on-13-feb-2024.pdf?la=en">close to collapse</a>. </p>
<p>That makes it comparable to Victoria’s last <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/wild-weather-warning-as-storms-lash-melbourne-regional-victoria/100578948">grid-crippling storms</a> in October 2021. </p>
<p>But this power outage could have been much worse. It speaks to the urgent need to harden our grid against the more frequent extreme weather expected under climate change. </p>
<h2>What actually happened?</h2>
<p>It was very hot in Victoria on February 13. Fires raged in central Victoria, claiming dozens of houses. When a cool change arrived, it brought extreme winds. </p>
<p>At about 12.35pm, Australia’s largest windfarm, Stockyard Hill, disconnected from the grid, as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/photos/watch-act-grass-fire-leave-nowincident-location-stockyard-hillissue-date-tuesday/719539106985386/?paipv=0&eav=AfZh-4_GUI540qgzMqlBWjgP6p6IhujLW7rBtJ4YFeC4rUOuizrz_zn82hPUhOAsn3g&_rdr">grass fire</a> threatened its grid connection. </p>
<p>As it happens, the loss of the windfarm was actually a lucky break.</p>
<p>At 2.08pm, six of Victoria’s highest voltage transmission towers (500 kiloVolt) were toppled by extreme downdrafts. This catastrophe took out two sets of 500 kV powerlines transporting much of the electricity from wind farms in western and south western Victoria to Melbourne. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>At the time of collapse, the circuits were likely fairly heavily loaded. They would have been much more heavily loaded had Stockyard Hill windfarm not dropped off the system 90 minutes earlier from the unrelated grass fire. </p>
<p>In response to the 500 kV faults, voltages dipped, forcing all four of the large coal-fired generating units at Loy Yang A to disconnect. Two wind farms in western Victoria were disconnected automatically, as intended in their cases.</p>
<p>During most of the transmission crisis, rooftop solar became the largest source of supply in Victoria.</p>
<p>In addition to the transmission events, damage to local distribution poles and wires was widespread, especially in regional Victoria. This <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/experts-to-review-victoria-s-energy-crash-after-extreme-storms-20240220-p5f6as.html">cut power</a> to about one in five Victorian homes. </p>
<p>In about two hours, the power system had stabilised. Gas and hydro generators rushed in to fill the gap left by Loy Yang A and the wind farms, and Victoria got through its evening peak. Many homes on however still remain without power through distribution network failures.</p>
<p>In response, the Victorian government has <a href="https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-independent-review-of-storm-response/">announced</a> it will appoint an independent panel to review the disaster, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/independent-review-green-lit-into-vic-storms-blackout">closely following</a> the review of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/dandenongs-storms-residents-still-reeling-a-year-later/103068ad-295d-41db-9618-27386380c498">devastating storms</a> in June 2021. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review">final recommendations</a> from the review of the 2021 storms, the panel played it safe, calling for better communication with affected communities, beefed up emergency responses and relief delivery and so on. </p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20Response%20to%20the,Victoria%20to%20submit%20a%20request">accepted</a> a key recommendation: any major changes to strengthen network resilience should be referred to the Australian Energy Markets Commission, thereby kicking the big challenges into the long grass.</p>
<p>This time round, the omens are inauspicious. The government has explicitly excluded transmission from its review, instead relegating it to the electricity safety regulator. This is short-sighted. The Victorian transmission network is heavily exposed to weather risk and it is getting worse. </p>
<h2>What should be done about it?</h2>
<p>This won’t be the last grid-buckling extreme weather we’ll see. Far from it. </p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to reduce weather risk, and putting high (and low) voltage lines underground is often spoken about. </p>
<p>It will be expensive. In the wake of devastating fires, California’s <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/safety/community-wildfire-safety-program/system-hardening-and-undergrounding.html#:%7E:text=We%20are%20upgrading%20our%20electric,improve%20reliability%20during%20severe%20weather.">largest utility</a> committed to put 16,000 km of lines underground. So far, almost 1,000 km has been completed. But the cost has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/fighting-fires-in-the-power-sector/">been substantial</a> – around A$3.2 million a kilometre. </p>
<p>Victoria has 148,000 km of distribution lines of which 84% is overhead and 16% underground, a similar proportion to the rest of Australia. It’s much easier and cheaper to put distribution lines underground than transmission lines. </p>
<p>If we optimistically assume the same cost as in California, boosting the proportion of Victoria’s distribution network that is underground by 10 percentage points (to 26%) would cost around $37 billion. That’s more than double the regulatory value of the distribution network in Victoria. </p>
<p>Is enhanced vegetation management – widespread tree clearing near lines cheaper? Perhaps not. <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP347.pdf">Research in California </a> suggests undergrounding may actually be more cost-effective in terms of fires avoided. </p>
<p>More cost-effective than undergrounding are rapid switches, devices able to quickly clear faults and reduce the chance downed lines will start fires. Victoria began requiring distributors to install these from 2016, following the state’s 2009 Black Saturday fires, where downed powerlines sparked several lethal blazes. Their effectiveness is yet to be proven. </p>
<p>These are difficult questions and much is to be gained by considering them carefully. This will require the government to reach for more than another set of “must-try-harder” recommendations.</p>
<h2>What about building new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>Even as extreme weather topples huge transmission towers, state and federal governments are pressing ahead to build more. Expanding transmission capacity is important to decarbonise our electricity supply. But if not done well, it will increase exposure to weather risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/cb01c4_adef2391c5414148bf8f388a0f1dcebe.pdf">Our study</a> of VNI-West, the proposed massive new Victoria-New South Wales interconnector, found it would greatly increase Victoria’s energy security risk.</p>
<p>Why? Because it will be very heavily loaded, much more so than the 500 kV lines that failed last week, and it carries two sets of conductors on one set of towers. </p>
<p>This proposed new interconnector will make Victoria deeply dependent on NSW for its electricity supply. In a little over a decade Victoria is expected to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">import 26%</a> of its grid-supplied electricity, much of it conveyed on VNI-West. This is an astonishing and little-known aspect of Victoria’s existing electricity policy.</p>
<p>Vandalism or extreme weather could, at a stroke, disable this new transmission line. In our report we drew attention to sabotage and weather risk and since out report we have seen yet more evidence of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/two-charged-after-allegedly-tampering-with-power-pole-that-cut-electricity-to-thousands-of-homes-20230913-p5e4cc.html">sabotage</a>, and now we have another clear example of the risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s market operator has <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_e9a4bfe6fd1f44ffb16b1d3eb9da3e5c.pdf">brushed off</a> our critique without reason.</p>
<p>Victoria dodged a bullet last week. It could have been far worse. To be ready for the next major storm, we should at the very least have a bipartisan parliamentary inquiry into the events of February 13. And this must scrutinise whether the proposed Victoria-NSW interconnector could survive a similar event – and what would happen if it did not. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transmission towers bent like soft plastic when extreme winds whipped through Victoria last week. Fixing it means asking hard questions.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226162024-02-08T03:13:07Z2024-02-08T03:13:07ZFirst Nations people must be at the forefront of Australia’s renewable energy revolution<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">plentiful</a> solar and wind resources and proximity to Asia means it can become a renewable energy superpower. But as the renewable energy rollout continues, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people must benefit. </p>
<p>Renewables projects can provide income and jobs to Aboriginal land owners. Access to clean energy can also help First Nations people protect their culture and heritage, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000296#bbib0060">remain on Country</a>. </p>
<p>This is not a new idea. Policies in the United States and Canada, for example, actively seek to ensure the energy transition delivers opportunities to Indigenous people.</p>
<p>The Australian government is developing a <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">First Nations Clean Energy Strategy</a> and is seeking comment on a <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">consultation paper</a>. Submissions close tomorrow, February 9. If you feel strongly about the issue, we urge you to have your say.</p>
<p>We must get this policy right. Investing meaningfully in First Nations-led clean energy projects makes the transition more likely to succeed. What’s more, recognising the rights and interests of First Nations people is vital to ensuring injustices of the past are not repeated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A video by author Adam Fish exploring the Eastern Kuku Yalanji community of Wujal Wujal in Queensland and their struggle for renewable energy..</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Good for business, and people</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples have recognised land interests covering around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia">26% of Australia’s landmass</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">Research</a> shows Aboriginal land holders want to be part of the energy transition. But they need support and resources. </p>
<p>This could take the form of federal grants to make communities more energy-efficient or less reliant on expensive, polluting diesel generators. Funding could also be spent on workforce training to ensure First Nations people have the skills to take part in the transition. Federal agencies could be funded to support grants for First Nations feasibility studies of renewable energy industry on their land.</p>
<p>As well as proper investment, governments must also ensure First Nations people are engaged early in the planning of renewable projects and that the practice of free prior and informed consent is followed. And renewable energy operators will also need to ensure they have capability to work with First peoples. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/first_nations_can_help_australia_respond_to_the_united_states_inflation_reduction_act">First Nations Clean Energy Network</a> – of which one author, Heidi Norman, is part – is a network of First Nations people, community organisations, land councils, unions, academics, industry groups and others. It is working to ensure First Nations communities share the benefits of the clean energy boom.</p>
<p>The network is among a group of organisations calling on the federal government to invest an additional A$100 billion into the Australian renewables industry. The investment should be designed to benefit all Australians, including First Nations people.</p>
<p>In Australia, the Albanese government has set an emissions-reduction goal of a 43% by 2030, based on 2005 levels. But Australia’s renewable energy rollout is not happening fast enough to meet this goal. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">called for</a> faster planning decisions on renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>To achieve the targets, however, the federal government must bring communities along with them – including First Nations people.</p>
<p>As demonstrated by the US and Canada, investing <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003242499-10/getting-right-katie-quail-donna-green-ciaran-faircheallaigh">meaningfully and at scale</a> in First Nations-led clean energy projects is not just equitable, it makes good business sense.</p>
<h2>Follow the leaders</h2>
<p>The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 made A$520 billion in investments to accelerate the transition to net zero. <a href="https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=123806">Native Americans</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003845">stand</a> to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Tribal-Guidebook.pdf">receive</a> hundreds of billions of dollars from the laws. This includes funding set aside for Tribal-specific programs.</p>
<p>Canada is even further ahead in this policy space. In fact, analysis <a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ICE-report-ENGLISH-FINAL.pdf">shows</a> First Nations, Métis and Inuit entities are partners or beneficiaries of almost 20% of Canada’s electricity-generating infrastructure, almost all of which is producing renewable energy. In one of the most recent investments, the Canadian government in 2022 invested <a href="https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1481305379258/1594737453888">C$300 million</a> to help <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222031735?casa_token=SXoJWgJwAikAAAAA:aQrTM16T_OPLQEgVk31foMzZt79T5YxOz9k3v2CEsWe8fIPPneIBw6Q0DRWIHQPzqzHNbZ0">First Nations, Inuit and Métis Peoples</a> launch clean energy projects.</p>
<p>Policymakers in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623003031?casa_token=oA-q7QLSoi0AAAAA:ERC46yk_BCTFm5BnyPv9Nn2jFiFrc7XjRw_H0GKPRI_HsBq_0l8mZqxlYbim7l1zcQPAskA">both</a> <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full/10.1139/er-2018-0024?casa_token=H26U1EGKnakAAAAA%3ALnTYxXudwDujnWnyWqUbK9Mo4R9ekhETvW7g8dthacWDox3TFSi-Jm4B4A5qpIIo1KaWEpaCU2k">countries</a> increasingly realise that a just transition from fossil fuels requires addressing the priorities of First Nations communities. These investments are a starting point for building sustainable, globally competitive economies that work for everyone.</p>
<p>As the US and Canada examples <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X22004316">demonstrate</a>, the right scale of investment in First Nations-led projects can mean fewer legal delays and a much-needed social licence to operate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewable-projects-are-getting-built-faster-but-theres-even-more-need-for-speed-221874">Renewable projects are getting built faster – but there's even more need for speed </a>
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<h2>Dealing with the climate risk</h2>
<p>First Nations people around the world are on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620306429?casa_token=AAadBFs9XWUAAAAA:eFX4w39-yt7SjqNVXgIbHF-bCGiHu-v4UyyEF6k7Fsl_wt85KdjFXkTYBGhvA6prSPD3DnU">frontline of climate change</a>. It threatens their homelands, food sources, cultural resources and ways of life.</p>
<p>First Nations have also experienced chronic under-investment in their energy infrastructure by governments over generations, both in <a href="https://theconversation.com/many-first-nations-communities-swelter-without-power-why-isnt-there-solar-on-every-rooftop-204032">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621002280">abroad</a>.</p>
<p>Investing in First Nations-led clean energy projects <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/22/9569">builds climate resilience</a>. This was demonstrated by the federal government’s Bushlight program, which ran from 2002 to 2013. It involved renewable energy systems installed in remote communities in the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.</p>
<p>Bushlight’s solar power meant that communities were not dependent on the delivery of diesel. So they still had power if roads were closed by flooding or other climate disasters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">How can Aboriginal communities be part of the NSW renewable energy transition?</a>
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<h2>Australia must get moving</h2>
<p>The Biden government’s Inflation Reduction Act prompted a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-eyes-over-14-bln-green-transformation-spending-govt-2023-08-23/">swift</a> <a href="https://www.esade.edu/faculty-research/sites/default/files/publicacion/pdf/2023-05/The%20EU%20Response%20to%20the%20U.S.%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act.pdf">reaction</a> from governments around the world. But after 15 months, Australia is yet to respond or develop equivalent legislation. </p>
<p>We must urgently <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-pushed-to-create-100b-australian-inflation-reduction-act-20230907-p5e2y7">develop our response</a> and seize this unique opportunity to become world leaders in the global renewables race. That includes ensuring First Nations participate in and benefit from these developments.</p>
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<p><em>The First Nations Clean Energy Strategy consultation paper can be found <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/working-groups/first-nations-engagement-working-group/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">here</a>. Feedback can be provided <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy-consultation-paper">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Fish volunteers research for the First Nations Clean Energy Network.
He received funding from the Digital Grid Future Institute at the University of New South Wales.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Norman receives funding from Australian Research Council and James Martin Institute. </span></em></p>Australia lags the US and Canada when it comes to involving Indigenous people in projects on their land. With the growth of renewable energy we have an opportunity to make a fresh start.Adam Fish, Associate Professor, School of Arts and Media, UNSW SydneyHeidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224952024-02-07T19:18:08Z2024-02-07T19:18:08ZWholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573691/original/file-20240206-29-7oipkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=138%2C53%2C6989%2C4702&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wholesale power prices are falling steeply in Australia, following two years of surging prices after the Ukraine war triggered an energy crisis. <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/2024-01/Q4%202023%20Wholesale%20markets%20quarterly%20report.pdf">New data</a> shows annualised spot prices for power in Australia’s main grid fell by about 50% in 2023. That brings the cost of wholesale power down towards the levels seen in 2021. </p>
<p>Is that good news for consumers? It will be – but not yet. Energy retailers buy most of their power in advance at set prices, accepting higher average prices for less volatility. That means the cheaper spot prices won’t flow through to you for a while. But they will. </p>
<p>Here’s how the system works. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surging-energy-prices-are-really-going-to-hurt-what-can-the-government-actually-do-196206">Surging energy prices are really going to hurt. What can the government actually do?</a>
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<h2>How is power priced?</h2>
<p>The way we price electricity will be different depending where you live in Australia.</p>
<p>If you live in Tasmania, Western Australia, regional Queensland or in the Northern Territory, there’s no competition. The state or territory government runs the power system, and prices are set by a regulator. </p>
<p>In South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and south-east Queensland, the competitive National Energy Market applies. Here, retailers buy power on the wholesale spot market from generators and compete for your business by offering different prices and bundling electricity with other services such as gas or broadband. (Some energy companies are both generators and retailers.) </p>
<p>While the federal government doesn’t set prices in the market, it does have some involvement. In 2019, it introduced a mandatory <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/industry/registers/resources/reviews/default-market-offer-prices-2024-25">default market offer</a>, effectively setting a maximum price a retailer can charge customers. Victoria also implemented its own default offer. These changes stemmed from concerns retail competition was overly complicated and not delivering benefits to all electricity consumers. </p>
<p>Default offers were intended as a fair price for power and to work as a safety net so consumers weren’t overcharged. </p>
<p>Retailers compete in part by offering deals set below the default price. Nearly all of us have now signed up for market offers, leaving fewer than 10% of consumers still on a default offer. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="power lines and house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573692/original/file-20240206-29-kpdyk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wholesale prices have fallen – but there’s a wait for consumer relief.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The price of electricity in default offers is set by energy regulators, usually on 1 July each year. Competing retailers tend to mirror changes to the default offers in their market offers. That means most, if not all, consumers should start seeing lower default prices reflected in their bills from this date onwards.</p>
<p>But don’t expect falling wholesale prices to be passed on immediately or in full. Buying electricity wholesale is only around 40% of a retailer’s total cost. Retailers also pass through the costs of transmission and distribution. </p>
<h2>Ironing out fluctuations</h2>
<p>In the National Energy Market, the spot price of power <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem">changes every five minutes</a> – often drastically. Prices can be as low as negative A$1,000 per megawatt hour or as high as +$16,000 a megawatt hour if there are outages or intense demand during a heatwave. (Prices can turn negative if there’s an oversupply of power, such as when millions of rooftop solar arrays are putting energy into the grid in the middle of the day, and act as an incentive to boost demand or cut supply.) </p>
<p>You and I don’t want to be exposed to such price volatility. We rely on our retailers to do it, and they do so by taking out multi-year contracts to smooth out the price of power. </p>
<p>That means we are not exposed immediately to sudden increases in price, but it also means we do not benefit from rapid falls. Retail prices, including default offers, will respond to changes in wholesale prices when those changes are reflected in the retailers’ contract prices.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar on rooftops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573694/original/file-20240206-19-suis74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">On sunny days, rooftop solar can send power prices negative.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What about politics?</h2>
<p>Power prices are political. Everyone uses electricity and bill shock hurts. </p>
<p>At present, the Albanese government is under real pressure over the cost of living. Successive interest rate rises and more expensive petrol and groceries have left many of us feeling poorer. </p>
<p>Could there be direct intervention? Unlikely. Since the National Electricity Market was introduced in 1998, governments have avoided directly regulating prices. </p>
<p>When partial interventions are tried, they tend to have little impact. When the Coalition was in office federally, they introduced the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-has-morrisons-big-stick-to-cut-power-bills-achieved-nothing-as-far-we-can-tell-180683">Big Stick laws</a>, aimed at forcing energy retailers to pass on cost savings. To date, the laws have gathered dust. </p>
<p>What we can expect to see are calls to action. For instance, South Australia’s energy minister recently called on retailers to <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/consumers-deserve-a-power-break-from-retailers">pass on price falls</a> as quickly as possible. </p>
<p>This makes headlines and can put pressure on regulators such as the Australian Energy Regulator. We can expect the pressure of the election cycle to lead to even more calls for regulators to act. </p>
<p>But regulators should respond in line with their clear guidelines, rather than in response to political pressure. After all, governments have given regulators a difficult job to do: deliver fair prices in a rapidly evolving electricity market.</p>
<p>It would be better for the long-term interests of consumers and energy suppliers if they were allowed to get on with it. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>As more clean energy comes into the grid, it should push wholesale prices still lower. But the energy transition isn’t as simple as substituting solar and wind for coal. Big investments in transmission and energy storage are needed to connect more renewables and maintain a reliable system. Prices could once again rise sharply if our ageing coal plants give up the ghost before there’s enough renewable generation and storage to take up the slack. </p>
<p>These challenges and risks were inevitable given the scale of our net-zero transition. But the recent trend towards lower prices should give us confidence that more investment in renewables and storage can cover the closure of coal to deliver a reliable, low-emissions future – without threatening affordability. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund. </span></em></p>Power prices surged two years ago – and now are falling sharply. Why does it take so long to see relief?Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218742024-01-30T19:06:30Z2024-01-30T19:06:30ZRenewable projects are getting built faster – but there’s even more need for speed <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572066/original/file-20240130-23-glcujk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C8%2C5530%2C3102&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How long does it take to build a solar or wind farm? It’s a simple question with wide implications. To reach our ambitious 82% renewable energy target by 2030, we have to build many new projects – and start them soon. </p>
<p>In 2022, renewables hit a new high of 36% of Australia’s total electricity production, double that of 2017. That’s good – but there’s a long way to go. </p>
<p>Hitting the national target <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">will require</a> building about 40 wind turbines (7 megawatts) every month, and 22,000 solar panels (500 watt) every day. </p>
<p>At the start of the year, climate minister Chris Bowen called on all levels of Australian government to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">speed up planning decisions</a> for renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>Reaching our target depends on one little-researched factor: completion time. </p>
<p>Solar and wind projects are built much faster than large fossil-energy plants. But the pre-construction approval process can be complex and slow projects down. In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000458?via%3Dihub">new research</a>, my colleague and I found completion times have fallen significantly in recent years. But we need to go even faster to achieve the 2030 target. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
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<h2>How long does it take to complete renewable energy projects?</h2>
<p>Very few studies have explored renewable energy lead times across a group of renewable projects in Australia or elsewhere. We investigated completion times for 170 onshore wind and solar projects completed in Australia between 2000 and 2023.</p>
<p>Using a <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">data set we built</a>, we found welcome news: Australian renewable projects are being built significantly faster.</p>
<p>Taking an onshore wind farm from idea to reality now takes about 53 months. This is substantially faster than wind farms started before 2016, which took more than 88 months. Obtaining pre-construction approvals and planning took up most of that time.</p>
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<p>Solar projects now take about 41 months. It used to be double that, at up to 83 months before 2011. </p>
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<p>Overall, there has been a decrease in solar lead times. Due to recent regulatory changes, the time taken for the construction and final stages has increased from 18 months to 21 months.</p>
<h2>What does it take to build a solar or wind farm?</h2>
<p>We break project lead times down into three stages: </p>
<p><strong>1. Pre-construction</strong> – the developer designs the project and seeks approvals </p>
<p><strong>2. Building and connecting</strong> – the time between starting construction and connecting to the grid to supply energy for the first time </p>
<p><strong>3. Getting commissioned</strong> – this final stage involves obtaining a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/system-operations/generator-performance-standards">performance standard</a> from the Australian Energy Market Operator. Essentially, a new renewable plant has to be able to perform as expected and pass a series of tests. In our study, this stage starts at the time of first generation and finishes when a site generates at least 80% of its total capacity.</p>
<h2>Why can lead times differ?</h2>
<p>Passing through all three stages can be smooth – or fraught. While build times are improving, some projects can get stuck in development for years, making it seem harder than it is.</p>
<p>Delays can come from seeking approvals from multiple authorities and difficulties in accessing and connecting to the grid.</p>
<p>As lead times are rarely tracked across a large number of projects, outliers can skew how long we expect things take to complete. These outliers can get a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-18/woakwine-limestone-coast-wind-farm-delay-decade-after-approval/102361318">lot of publicity</a>. </p>
<p>Even when lead times are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122563">monitored and compared</a>, the raw data isn’t made public. A renewable energy pipeline database should be public and provide historical examples for comparison. It could learn from the <a href="https://infrastructurepipeline.org/">Australia and New Zealand Infrastructure Pipeline</a> and should track and compare lead times.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-hit-82-renewables-in-8-years-we-need-skilled-workers-and-labour-markets-are-already-overstretched-188811">To hit 82% renewables in 8 years, we need skilled workers – and labour markets are already overstretched</a>
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<h2>How did development speed up?</h2>
<p>It wasn’t a single policy or process change that drove these faster build times. But the improvements in lead times were driven by faster pre-construction planning and approval stages.</p>
<p>We found clear evidence some states are faster than others. South Australia – Australia’s top renewable state – had notably lower pre-construction lead times for both wind and solar, likely due to streamlined approvals. We found some evidence of fast approvals for solar in Victoria.</p>
<p>Changes in project ownership occurred often (38% of projects) but this had little impact on how long they took to complete.</p>
<p>One issue that has increased lead times in Australia was a 2017 change to how renewables are tested, introduced as a response to the South Australia <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/reports/compliance/investigation-report-south-australias-2016-state-wide-blackout">statewide blackout</a> of 2016. One aspect of this – the controversial “do no harm” system strength assessment – has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemc-dumps-do-no-harm-rule-to-end-chaotic-response-to-system-strength-issues/">since been removed</a>. </p>
<p>These changes added an average of three months of delay for projects commencing construction after 2017. </p>
<h2>We can go faster still</h2>
<p>Even though Australian renewable lead times have shortened significantly since 2010, we should do more. After all, there are now only 71 months until 2030, when Australia’s renewables targets must be met. </p>
<p>Government approvals could be sped up if renewable developers can clearly see the steps to follow and deal with one central agency. All authorities involved should have maximum response times for key stages of the approval process. </p>
<p>Suitable projects located close to existing projects could also be assessed as expansions and not new developments. This would notably streamline the process. Authorities are already allowing developers to do this when approving grid-scale batteries to be installed near solar farms. </p>
<h2>Why do we need this data?</h2>
<p>If you’re a renewable energy developer, it’s vitally important to know how long it normally takes to get a project up and running. It’s also a key piece of data for investors and policymakers. </p>
<p>That’s why we have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107337">provided clear detail</a> of our data collection technique so it can be used by researchers, consultants, and government employees. Our data set is also <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">available for download</a>.</p>
<p>Is it still possible to hit 82% renewable energy by 2030? Yes – but based on our lead-time estimates, only if most projects start their planning phase in the next couple of years. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden receives funding from James Martin Institute for Public Policy. He is the Secretary of the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions (ICEDS), Australian National University (ANU). </span></em></p>We’re getting faster at building renewables – but we’ll have to speed up even more to reach our 2030 target of 82% clean energyThomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214972024-01-22T19:04:58Z2024-01-22T19:04:58Z‘It’s not game over – it’s game on’: why 2024 is an inflection point for the climate crisis<p>In 2024, global climate trends are cause for both deep alarm and cautious optimism. Last year was the hottest on record by a huge margin and this year will likely be hotter still. The annual global average temperature may, for the first time, exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold crucial for stabilising the Earth’s climate. </p>
<p>Without immediate action, we are at grave risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Yet there are reasons for hope.</p>
<p>Global greenhouse gas emissions may peak this year and start falling. This would be an historic turning point, heralding the end of the fossil fuel era as coal, oil and gas are increasingly displaced by clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>But we must do more than take our foot off the warming accelerator – we must slam on the brakes. To avoid the worst of the climate crisis, global emissions must roughly halve by 2030. The task is monumental but possible, and could not be more urgent. It’s not game over – it’s game on.</p>
<h2>Our planet in peril</h2>
<p>Last year, Earth was the hottest it’s been since records began. The onset of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean helped drive global temperatures to new heights. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">found</a> 2023 was 1.48°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.</p>
<p>Warmer global temperatures in 2023 brought extreme events and disasters worldwide. They included <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-expert-explains-the-northern-hemispheres-weird-wild-summer-and-what-it-means-for-australia-209862">deadly heatwaves</a> in the northern hemisphere summer, devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sleepwalking-a-bushfire-scientist-explains-what-the-hawaii-tragedy-means-for-our-flammable-continent-211364">wildfires</a> in Canada and Hawaii, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/climate-change-blamed-for-south-africa-s-floods">record-breaking rains</a> in many places including Korea, South Africa and China. </p>
<p>Last year was also the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=Global%20ocean%20heat%20content%20set,heat%20in%20the%20Earth%20system.">warmest on record</a> for the world’s oceans. More than <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/#:%7E:text=Covering%20more%20than%2070%25%20of,heat%20as%20Earth%27s%20entire%20atmosphere.">90% of heat</a> from global warming is stored in the world’s oceans. Ocean temperatures are a <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CC_MVSA0383-CC-Report-on-Oceans_V8-FA-Screen-Single.pdf">clear indicator</a> of our warming planet, revealing a year-on-year increase and an acceleration in the rate of warming.</p>
<p>The warming oceans meant for parts of 2023, the extent of sea ice in the Earth’s polar regions was the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/exceptional-antarctic-melt-drives-months-of-record-low-global-sea-ice-cover">lowest on record</a>. During the southern hemisphere winter, sea ice in Antarctica was <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/2023-antarctic-sea-ice-winter-maximum-lowest-record-wide-margin">more than one million square kilometres</a> below the previous record low – an area of ice more than 15 times the size of Tasmania.</p>
<p>This year may be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00074-z#:%7E:text=The%20final%20numbers%20are%20in,for%20the%20time%20of%20year.">hotter still</a>. There is a reasonable chance 2024 will end with an average global temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Governments have agreed, through the Paris Agreement, to work together to limit global warming to 1.5°C, because warming beyond this threshold poses enormous dangers for humanity. </p>
<p>The agreement refers to long-term trends in temperature, not a single year. So breaching 1.5°C in 2024 would not mean the world has failed to meet the Paris target. However, on long-term trends we are on track to cross the 1.5°C limit <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/News/2024/January/Expert-commentary-2023-warmest-year-on-record">in the early 2030s</a>. </p>
<p>As the planet warms, we are now at grave risk of crossing irreversible “<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">tipping points</a>” in Earth’s climate system – including the loss of polar ice sheets and associated sea-level rise, and the collapse of major ocean currents. These tipping points represent thresholds which, when crossed, will trigger abrupt and self-perpetuating changes to the world’s climate and oceans. They are threats of a magnitude never before faced by humanity – one-way doors we do not want to go through.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-is-time-to-draw-down-carbon-dioxide-but-shut-down-moves-to-play-god-with-the-climate-220422">It is time to draw down carbon dioxide but shut down moves to play God with the climate</a>
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<h2>The age of fossil fuels will end</h2>
<p>In 2024 there are also many reasons for hope. </p>
<p>At the COP28 United Nations climate talks in December 2023, governments from nearly 200 countries agreed to accelerate the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">transition away from fossil fuels</a> in this crucial decade. The burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of the climate crisis. </p>
<p>We have the technology needed to replace fossil fuels across our economy: in electricity generation, transport, heating, cooking and industrial processes. In fact, surging market demand for clean energy technologies – wind, solar, batteries and electric cars – is now displacing polluting technologies, such as coal-fired power and combustion engine vehicles, on a global scale.</p>
<p>The world <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/massive-expansion-of-renewable-power-opens-door-to-achieving-global-tripling-goal-set-at-cop28">added</a> 510 billion watts of renewable energy capacity in 2023, 50% more than in 2022 and equivalent to the entire power capacity of Germany, France and Spain combined. The next five years are expected to see even faster growth in renewables. </p>
<p>Sales of electric vehicles are also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-electric-car-sales-rose-31-2023-rho-motion-2024-01-11/">booming</a> – growing by 31% in 2023 and representing <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles">around 18%</a> of all new vehicles sold worldwide. In Australia, sales of electric vehicles <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-05/australia-ev-sales-doubled-electric-hybrid-vehicles/103284916">doubled last year</a> and are expected to continue to grow strongly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<h2>Toward a peak in global emissions</h2>
<p>The accelerating shift toward clean energy technologies means global greenhouse gas emissions may fall in 2024. Recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), based on the stated policies of governments, suggests emissions may in fact have <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/">peaked last year</a>. The finding is supported by analysis from <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-peak">Climate Analytics</a>, which found a 70% chance of emissions falling from 2024 if current growth in clean technologies continues.</p>
<p>A growing number of major economies have passed their emissions peaks, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan. </p>
<p>China is currently the world’s biggest emitter, contributing 31% of the global total last year. But explosive growth in clean energy investments mean China’s emissions are set not only to fall in 2024, but to go into <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/">structural decline</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, China is currently undergoing a boom in clean energy manufacturing and a historic expansion of renewables – especially solar. Similarly explosive growth is expected for batteries and electric vehicles. </p>
<p>A peak in global emissions is cause for optimism – but it won’t be nearly enough. Greenhouse gas emissions will still accumulate in the atmosphere and drive catastrophic warming, until we bring them as close to zero as possible. </p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns global emissions must <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">roughly halve by 2030</a> to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach. The task is monumental, but possible.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing how climate policy shifts and clean energy use are bringing the world closer to an emissions peak" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570512/original/file-20240121-17-l81mjy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Climate policy shifts and clean energy use are bringing the world closer to an emissions peak – but governments need to do more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council, adapted from Carbon Brief analysis and based on IEA data.</span></span>
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<h2>Next steps for Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is making great strides in rolling out renewable energy. But state and federal governments are undermining this progress by approving new fossil fuel projects. </p>
<p>Every new coal, oil or gas development endangers us all. Australia must urgently reform its national environmental law – the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act – to end new fossil fuel developments.</p>
<p>Similarly, Australia’s gains in renewable energy have been offset by <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/annual-climate-change-statement-2023.pdf">rising emissions in other sectors</a>, notably transport. It’s time to implement long-promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/25/public-consultation-overwhelmingly-supports-fuel-efficiency-standard-for-cars-labor-says">fuel efficiency standards</a> and get these emissions down. </p>
<p>Beyond these immediate next practical steps, Australia has much work ahead to shift from fossil fuel exports to clean alternatives. </p>
<p>The opportunity for Australia to play a major positive role in the world’s decarbonisation journey is undeniable, but that window of opportunity is narrowing fast.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wesley Morgan is a Senior Researcher with the Climate Council</span></em></p>Without urgent action, Earth is heading for climate catastrophe. Yet there are reasons for hope in 2024 – including a possible peak in global greenhouse gas emissions.Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199122023-12-18T19:10:06Z2023-12-18T19:10:06ZFrom laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now<p>For years <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2021/11/12/fossil-fuelled-five-report/">large fossil fuel producers</a> — <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-a-country-is-serious-about-net-zero-look-at-its-plans-for-extracting-fossil-fuels-170508">including Australia</a> — have <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">expanded</a> fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.</p>
<p>At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/opec-chief-urges-members-reject-any-cop28-deal-that-targets-fossil-fuels-2023-12-08/">feeling the pressure</a> — forced to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/opec-members-push-against-including-fossil-fuels-phase-out-cop28-deal-2023-12-09/">defend their expansion of fossil fuels</a> or change their tune.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">worked assiduously</a> to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">said</a> Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s largest producers and exporters</a> of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects</a> are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas">carbon bombs</a>,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has already <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/ten-and-rising-albanese-government-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-unveiled/">approved</a> a number of new fossil fuel projects, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/how-labor-out-loved-the-coalition-in-its-embrace-of-big-oil-and-gas/">embracing</a> the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/missing-half-the-equation-scientists-criticise-australia-over-approach-to-fossil-fuels">charges of hypocrisy</a>.</p>
<p>How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">rhetoric at COP</a> contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a <a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/renewable-energy-superpower">clean energy superpower</a> instead of a dirty energy one.</p>
<p>Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/climate-policy-and-our-sphere-of-influence/">sphere of influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<h2>First a new project ban, then a net zero plan</h2>
<p>Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/21/the-latest-ipcc-report-makes-it-clear-no-new-fossil-fuel-projects-can-be-opened-that-includes-us-australia">banning new projects</a>, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.</p>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “<a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/laggard-to-leader#:%7E:text=Laggard%20to%20Leader%20is%20a,and%20accelerated%20through%20international%20cooperation.">cooperative decarbonisation</a>”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.</p>
<h2>The weak objections to a phase-out</h2>
<p>The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for <a href="https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/reporting-requirements-under-article-13-paris-agreement/">reporting emissions</a> locally.</p>
<p>Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.</p>
<p>The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply <em>some</em> of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">promote our coal and gas exports</a>: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.</p>
<p>The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-wins-plaudits-for-move-on-multinational-tax-dodgers-but-much-more-is-needed-on-fossil-front/">pay little tax</a> and <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">employ relatively few people</a>, while capturing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf">billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies</a>. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/a-real-plan-to-tackle-energy-prices-climate-and-the-budget/">taxed the fossil fuel industry properly</a> on its way out.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas</h2>
<p>Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">among a number</a> of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/just-transition-examples">working to phase out existing</a> operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.</p>
<p>But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-to-get-coal-country-to-vote-for-climate-policy-the-effect-of-a-just-transition-agreement-on-spanish-election-results/25FE7B96445E74387D598087649FDCC3">found</a> this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.</p>
<p>A phase-out of fossil fuel production is <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">entirely feasible</a> for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance - is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance's Just Transition Expert Group.</span></em></p>Australia supported a phase-out of fossil fuels at the recent UN climate summit but is still expanding coal and gas production. It’s a contradiction that threatens the planet. There is a better way.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188252023-12-11T02:29:32Z2023-12-11T02:29:32ZCOP28: Why China’s clean energy boom matters for global climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564141/original/file-20231207-27-abbr9o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=845%2C19%2C4219%2C2508&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With an energy-hungry economy, an historic reliance on coal and vast manufacturing enterprises, China is the world’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/12/china-s-transition-to-a-low-carbon-economy-and-climate-resilience-needs-shifts-in-resources-and-technologies">single largest emitter</a>, accounting for 27% of the world’s carbon dioxide and a third of all greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>But China is also the world’s largest manufacturer of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-dominate-solar-supply-chain-years-wood-mackenzie-2023-11-07/">solar panels</a>
and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Chinese-manufacturers-dominate-wind-power-taking-60-of-global-market">wind turbines</a>. Domestically, it is installing green power at a rate the world has never seen. This year alone, China built enough solar, wind, hydro and nuclear capacity to cover the entire electricity consumption of France. Next year, we may see something even more remarkable – the population giant’s <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/">first ever drop in emissions</a> from the power sector. </p>
<p>The COP28 climate talks began well, buoyed by November’s <a href="https://www.state.gov/sunnylands-statement-on-enhancing-cooperation-to-address-the-climate-crisis">Sunnyland Statement</a> between China and the United States, the second largest emitter. At previous climate talks, US-China cooperation has been lacking. But this time, they’re largely on the same page. </p>
<p>The statement outlined joint support for global tripling of renewable energy by 2030, tackling methane and plastic pollution, and a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal barge in middle of shanghai" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564168/original/file-20231207-21-c3yki9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal has fuelled China’s rapid rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The urgency of now</h2>
<p>China has been looking for better coordination with the US on climate since US President Joe Biden took office. Climate is an area where these competing major powers can cooperate. </p>
<p>The COP28 talks in Dubai – meant to finish tomorrow – offer a window for joint action. Next year, the US could elect a different president with very different views on climate. China’s well-regarded veteran special climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, is about to retire. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-renewed-china-us-cooperation-bodes-well-for-climate-action-218394">Why renewed China-US cooperation bodes well for climate action</a>
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<p>In these talks, China – the world’s top oil importer – is looking for a compromise solution on the tense debate over fossil fuels. The world’s cartel of oil producing countries, OPEC, has called for focusing on emissions reduction rather than fossil-fuel phase out in the declaration. Xie and his team are trying to find a middle ground to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/china-pours-oil-on-troubled-cop28-waters/news-story/fb2ffb77ec75b502abd71c47ff204350">ensure a final deal</a>.</p>
<p>China has long been criticised for its continuing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/business/china-solar-energy-cop-28.html">coal-fired power plant expansion</a>. It has the world’s largest coal power fleet, and approved another 106 gigawatts worth of new coal plants just last year – the equivalent of two a week. But the five major state-owned power companies are already burdened by <a href="https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-322625">heavy financial losses</a>. </p>
<p>Why build dirty and clean? It’s a longstanding national policy: build sufficient baseload supply first while expanding renewable capacities. But at COP28, Xie said <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/11/WS65764846a31040ac301a70af.html">something new</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[China will] strive to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy in a gradual manner. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A country of engineers</h2>
<p>In developed countries, much clean energy work is driven by energy economists, who use incentives to change behaviour. </p>
<p>China is a country of engineers, who see these challenges as technical rather than economic. </p>
<p>In 2007, China released a <a href="https://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-06/08/content_641704.htm">national action plan</a> on climate, calling for technological solutions to the climate problem. Private and state-owned companies responded strongly.</p>
<p>Fifteen years later, China is in the lead in every low-carbon category. Its total installed renewable capacity is staggering, accounting for a <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2023">third of the world’s total</a>, and it is leading in electric vehicle production and sales. </p>
<p>In 2023, low-carbon sources such as hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy and nuclear <a href="https://www.cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-326139">made up over 53%</a> of China’s electricity generating capacity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ship building wind turbines in the sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564162/original/file-20231207-19-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China has approached its record-breaking renewable roll-out methodically.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did China boost clean energy so fast?</h2>
<p>China’s huge domestic market and large-scale deployment of wind and solar contribute greatly to <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022">plummeting renewable costs</a>. Steadily lowering costs means green energy becomes viable for developing countries. </p>
<p>In 2012, a large team from China Power Investment Corporation arrived in the high desert in Qinghai province and <a href="https://tv.cctv.com/2023/11/26/VIDEkALg8IAgspyKmDBRVaSU231126.shtml?spm=C45404.PDzt747gf9Yc.EEoQCy1O5BTV.76">began building 15.7 GW</a> worth of solar across 345 square kilometres. </p>
<p>It was here that China first figured out how to make intermittent power reliable. Excess power was sent to a hydropower station 40km away and used to pump water uphill. At night, the water would flow back down through the turbines. Technologies developed here are now being used in other large-scale hybrid projects, such as hydro-solar, wind-solar and wind-solar-hydro projects. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china desert solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564170/original/file-20231207-23-9o4g8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Huge solar farms carpet the desert in Qinghai – and new work opens the door to revegetating in the shade of the panels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2022, the government announced plans to install 500 GW worth of solar, onshore and offshore wind projects in the Gobi Desert across Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu provinces. </p>
<p>These are intended to not only supercharge China’s clean energy supply, but to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X23002232">tackle desert expansion</a>. Solar panels stabilise the movement of sand and absorb sunlight, reducing evaporation of scarce water and giving plants a better chance at survival. This knowledge, too, came from the Qinghai solar farms, where plants began growing in the shade.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of china showing gobi and Taklamakan deserts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564722/original/file-20231211-19-9zavph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plenty of room for solar: China’s two major deserts, the Gobi and Taklamakan, are home to more and more solar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GobiTaklamakanMap.jpg">TheDrive/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s focus on technology has given it <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-07-09/China-s-mega-1-000-MW-photovoltaic-power-station-connected-to-grid-1libo36Jv5S/index.html">combined solar and salt farms</a>, floating solar power plants and <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Nov/IRENA-EPO-Offshore-Wind-Energy-Patent-Insight-Report">energy storage</a> ranging from batteries to compressed air to kinetic flywheels and hydrogen. </p>
<p>While the US and China cooperate at COP28, competition is not far away. China already dominates many clean energy technologies, but the US is trying to catch up through the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/lpo/inflation-reduction-act-2022">massive green spend</a> in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. </p>
<p>According to the International Energy Agency, half of all emissions cuts needed to achieve net-zero by 2050 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">will come from technologies</a> currently at demonstration or prototype phase. These include cheap green hydrogen, next generation nuclear, next generation solar and wind, and functioning carbon capture and storage for remaining fossil fuel use. </p>
<h2>What has China achieved at COP28?</h2>
<p>China is <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/11/WS65764846a31040ac301a70af.html">backing global calls</a> to triple renewable capacity by 2030 and has agreed to tackle methane emissions, a particularly potent greenhouse gas. </p>
<p>China is far behind energy efficiency – it uses about 50% more per unit of GDP than in the US, and double that of Japan. It has not invested in energy efficiency as it has in other low-carbon areas. </p>
<p>This could change. US and China agreed in November to restart joint energy efficiency work on industry, buildings, transportation, and equipment, seen as harder areas to cut emissions. </p>
<p>At COP28, we will likely see states agree to <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge">double the rate</a> of energy efficiency improvement from 2% to 4% a year by 2030. It remains to be seen whether China will join them. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: an earlier version of this article stated 53% of China’s electricity came from low carbon sources. That figure refers to capacity not generation.</em> </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/matter-of-national-destiny-chinas-energy-crisis-sees-the-worlds-top-emitter-investing-in-more-coal-189142">'Matter of national destiny': China’s energy crisis sees the world’s top emitter investing in more coal</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xu Yi-chong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This year, China has built renewables at a truly staggering pace. But can its tech-first approach actually cut emissions – and find common ground at COP28?Xu Yi-chong, Professor of Governance and Public Policy, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189302023-12-04T04:00:29Z2023-12-04T04:00:29ZTwo charts in Australia’s 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563183/original/file-20231204-16-c3vl5c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C8%2C5706%2C3784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/perth-australia-march-10-2023-highway-2273584563">Adwo, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">announced Australia is “within striking distance”</a> of the government’s 2030 emissions reduction target.</p>
<p>The good news was in the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/strategies/annual-climate-change-statement-2023">2023 Climate Statement</a> he tabled in parliament late last week. </p>
<p>Our commitment under the Paris Agreement is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 43% relative to 2005 levels by 2030, and to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a closer look at the statement suggests Australia is unlikely to achieve net zero by 2050 in the absence of radical policy changes. The problem can be seen in the following charts, included in the statement.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1005" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1005/8c0b99253c5dbedadfd4d2db9729d8e447341dbd/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The devil in the detail</h2>
<p>At first sight, the picture looks encouraging. Total emissions, represented by the yellow line, have declined greatly since the peak just after 2005. The trajectory looks consistent with net zero by 2050. The red dotted line, taking account of additional measures planned by the government, but not yet committed, lowers emissions a bit further.</p>
<p>A closer look leads to a gloomier conclusion. Nearly all of the reduction arises from just two categories: electricity and “LULUCF”, which stands for “<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf">land use, land-use change and forestry</a>”. </p>
<p>This can be seen by turning to the original source of the data. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water provides a graph showing the same data, but with the different sources of emissions shown separately, rather than being stacked as they were in the previous graph.</p>
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<p>The decline in electricity emissions reflects the rapid replacement of coal and gas-fired electricity by renewables (mainly solar power, wind and hydro, firmed by battery storage). This transition is well underway, and likely to continue. </p>
<p>The bad news is the transition to renewable electricity will be complete around 2035, after which there can be no further reductions.</p>
<p>The other main source of declining (in fact, negative) emissions is a grab bag of measures such as reductions in land clearing. There is debate over whether reductions from this source are genuine and sustainable. But the big decline in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry was over by 2015. As with electricity, there is little hope of future emissions reductions from this source.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>How can we further reduce emissions?</h2>
<p>The biggest remaining sources of emissions are transport, stationary energy (heating and burning fuel for industry), “fugitive” emissions from coal and gas production, and agriculture. </p>
<p>All of these are projected to remain roughly constant between now and 2035, and there is little reason to expect sharp declines after that, at least under current policies. So, on our current trajectory, we are unlikely to get much below 50% of 2005 emissions, let alone net zero, by 2050.</p>
<p>Looking at the sectors individually, emissions from agriculture are difficult to reduce, unless we also reduce production, particularly of meat. There have been lots of proposals to reduce emissions of methane from ruminants (mostly belches), but none has appeared practical so far. That means deeper reductions will be needed in other sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-food-and-agriculture-innovations-needed-to-protect-the-climate-and-feed-a-rapidly-growing-world-218414">7 food and agriculture innovations needed to protect the climate and feed a rapidly growing world</a>
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<p>In the case of transport and stationary energy, there are few technological obstacles to the achievement of drastic emissions reductions. The technology to electrify land transport, heating and most industrial processes is readily available. But there seems to be little government urgency to implement this technology.</p>
<p>As far as households are concerned, the crucial requirements are to replace internal combustion engine vehicles with electrics, and to replace gas for home use with electricity. Both are entirely feasible and, if we made a determined start today, the transition could be complete before 2050. </p>
<p>But that would require a rapid end to the purchase of new vehicles with internal combustion engines and of new gas connections for households. Neither seems likely.</p>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicles strategy</a> released in April, included a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-australias-first-national-electric-vehicle-strategy-drive-cleaner-cheaper-run-vehicles">commitment to a Fuel Efficiency Standard</a> for new light vehicles. The draft standard was supposed to be released this year, but has not yet appeared. </p>
<p>Unless the standard is considerably more stringent than appears likely at present, the dominant position of polluting vehicles in new sales is likely to persist for some time.</p>
<p>The government rejected the recommendations of the Climate Change Authority in this area. The authority proposed a standard for heavy vehicles, and an end to polluting light vehicle sales by 2040. On this basis, there will be millions of dirty cars and trucks with internal combustion engines still on the road by 2050.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-will-australia-navigate-domestic-climate-wins-and-fossil-fuel-exports-at-the-negotiating-table-218697">COP28: How will Australia navigate domestic climate wins and fossil fuel exports at the negotiating table?</a>
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<h2>A disturbing pattern of inaction</h2>
<p>The same pattern of inaction applies to electrification of home energy. The Victorian government has taken the lead on banning gas connections, and the Authority recommended adopting a national approach. But <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/annual-climate-change-statement-parliament-0">Bowen declined</a>, saying “the government does not support a national ban on gas connections to new homes”.</p>
<p>Even more concerning are projections for fugitive emissions from coal and gas production. These are effectively flat, implying the government expects production to continue at current levels indefinitely into the future. In turn, this implies that, as well as failing to deliver on its own 2050 net zero pledge, the government is betting the world as a whole will fail at this. Sadly, they may be right.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority.</span></em></p>Australia’s latest climate change statement shows we have little hope of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. There’s good news on the 2030 target, but then what?John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190042023-12-03T19:16:52Z2023-12-03T19:16:52ZHyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support<p>If you listen to the dreamers, hydrogen is the magical <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen">fuel of the future</a> that can replace everything from the petrol in your car to the coal in a steelworks.</p>
<p><a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/2022-state-hydrogen-report-reinforces-australias-green-hydrogen-powerhouse-potential">Hype around hydrogen</a> has been building in Australia since at least 2018. Every <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/western-australian-renewable-hydrogen-strategy-and-roadmap">government</a> has a <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/government-strategies-and-frameworks/nsw-hydrogen-strategy">hydrogen strategy</a>. Hydrogen has been promoted as a <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/australias-green-hydrogen-hour-has-arrived">replacement for our coal and gas exports</a>, and even <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/australias-major-parties-climate-action-policy-2022/">our major parties agree</a> on its role in Australia’s energy transition.</p>
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<p>In my previous job as a federal public servant, I worked with the then Chief Scientist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Finkel">Alan Finkel</a> and state and territory governments to develop Australia’s first <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">National Hydrogen Strategy</a>.</p>
<p>We were excited by hydrogen’s seemingly endless possibilities, from replacing natural gas in homes to fuelling cars and trains, to an export industry to rival liquid natural gas. The strategy acknowledged considerable uncertainty around these potential uses, but urged governments to seize the opportunities.</p>
<h2>High costs and hard times for hydrogen</h2>
<p>Since we published the strategy in 2019, the world has changed. The <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/recovery-plan-europe_en">European Union’s stimulus spending</a> in response to the pandemic shifted the focus of industry development from Asia to Europe. Last year the passage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">US Inflation Reduction Act</a> began pumping subsidies into industry development in the United States, too.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy-213874">The unsafe Safeguard Mechanism: how carbon credits could blow up Australia's main climate policy</a>
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<p>We also know a lot more about the logistics of hydrogen supply chains. Earlier hydrogen policy – such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/taylor-sets-a-target-for-hydrogen-under-2-20200226-p544jo">Australia’s “H2 under $2” target</a>, set in 2020 – assumed demand would magically appear when hydrogen’s production price reached parity with fossil fuels.</p>
<p>This assumption ignored the high costs of moving hydrogen from point of production to point of use, storing it, and switching to new assets that can use it.</p>
<p>Today we know more about where hydrogen might be used to decarbonise the economy. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start-137999">2020 Grattan Institute report</a> found that rather than exporting hydrogen, Australia had an opportunity to use it to value-add to Australia’s largest export – iron ore.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">Grattan Institute’s work also showed</a> that using hydrogen to replace gas in Australian homes was a poor economic choice. Worldwide, a consensus is emerging that switching to green electricity is the most economic way to reduce most energy-related emissions. Hydrogen will rarely be the cheapest option.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-growth-or-degrowth-what-is-the-right-way-to-tackle-climate-change-218239">Green growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?</a>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Australia is already struggling</a> with the scale and pace of its energy transition. The scale of construction <a href="https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Net-Zero-Australia-final-results-launch-event-presentation-19-April-23.pdf">required to be a green energy superpower</a> looks well out of reach. It’s time to bring Australia’s hydrogen dreams down to earth.</p>
<h2>Three potential hydrogen industries</h2>
<p>Grattan Institute’s latest report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/hydrogen-hype-hope-or-hard-work/">Hydrogen: hype, hope, or hard work</a>? identifies three hydrogen uses – ammonia manufacturing, high-temperature alumina processing - and green iron production – that Australian governments should focus on. </p>
<p>Hydrogen is either the only or the most promising technical option to decarbonise these commodities. They would be large users of hydrogen, capable of producing viable export industries built on a supply chain big enough to lower costs.</p>
<p>But for all three, the cost of using hydrogen instead of conventional fossil fuel is prohibitively high. Unless this cost gap is closed, these industries won’t have a future in Australia. If governments want them as part of their “<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">green superpower</a>” vision, they need to act.</p>
<p>A big share of the cost of hydrogen comes from the cost of the electricity used to make it. So above all, governments must continue to transform Australia’s electricity sector to push down power prices. Without cheap renewable electricity, our hydrogen dreams and green superpower ambitions disappear.</p>
<h2>The need for industry policy</h2>
<p>Even with lower electricity costs, making <a href="https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/climate-change-science-solutions/climate-science-solutions-hydrogen-ammonia.pdf">ammonia</a>, <a href="https://arena.gov.au/news/renewable-hydrogen-could-reduce-emissions-in-alumina-refining/">alumina</a> and <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm">iron</a> from hydrogen is still likely to be very expensive.</p>
<p>This cost can be reduced in two ways. First, make the fossil fuel alternative more expensive. The <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reporting/national-greenhouse-energy-reporting-scheme/safeguard-mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20is%20the,gas%20emissions%20of%20these%20facilities.">Safeguard Mechanism</a> puts a price on Australia’s industrial emissions, but it’s not enough to make hydrogen an economic alternative.</p>
<p>Second, use <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/why-australia-needs-a-21st-century-industry-policy/">industry policy</a> to give these industries a financial leg-up, rather than leaving everything to market forces.</p>
<p>Unlike the EU and the US, though, Australia is a small economy, with little fiscal capacity to undertake industry policy. Instead of introducing US-style tax credits, which could quickly drain treasury coffers, Australia should be strategic with industry policy, building industries with a long-term, subsidy-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-just-transition-to-net-zero-and-why-is-australia-struggling-to-get-there-218706">What is a 'just' transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?</a>
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<p>Much of the extra cost to create these industries comes from the high cost of production, rather than the initial capital expenditure. Investors will be reluctant to lend to ammonia, alumina, and steel companies to help them make a product that is more expensive than competitors.</p>
<p>To help green commodity producers to grow and become competitive while using hydrogen is expensive, the government should underwrite their returns by introducing “<a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/exclusive-european-commission-is-considering-contracts-for-difference-for-green-hydrogen-offtakers/2-1-1561729">contracts-for-difference</a>”. These instruments pay producers for the gap between their higher costs and the price the market is willing to pay. As their costs fall so does government support, leaving behind a plant producing a low-to-zero emissions product that has buyers.</p>
<h2>We can’t wait</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/ongoing/trade-assistance/2021-22/tar-2021-22.pdf">It’s tempting to say costs will come down with time, or that governments in the US and EU can do this work of reducing costs</a>. But a sitting-back approach has a big opportunity cost for Australia. Industrial supply chains are geographically “sticky” – once capital has been invested in assets at one end of the chain, these assets don’t tend to move.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>If Australia waits for the US and the EU to drive down costs, we are allowing them to anchor sticky supply chains in their economies. In a world without subsidies, Australia might have a comparative advantage over some of these places, but once the supply chain has stuck in place, it is unlikely to move here to seize that advantage.</p>
<p>Deployment, not time, is what drives costs down. If Australian industry doesn’t start using hydrogen while it’s expensive, it won’t have the option to use hydrogen cheaply in the future. It’s time to stop dreaming and start the hard work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219004/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Reeve is a former public servant. She led the team which developed the Australian Government’s 2019 national hydrogen strategy. She has no financial interest in companies relevant to this article. Grattan Institute discloses all its donors on its website.</span></em></p>Australian governments have invested a lot of hope in hydrogen to help drive the net zero transition, but concrete policies are urgently needed or we will lose our hydrogen advantage to other nations.Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184272023-11-23T08:13:24Z2023-11-23T08:13:24ZThe government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here’s why that’s a good idea<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/delivering-more-reliable-energy-all-australians">today announced</a> a scheme to underwrite the risk of investing in new renewable energy generation and storage. </p>
<p>The expansion of the national <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> follows <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-capacity-investment-scheme-supports-nsw-deliver-1gw-cleaner-cheaper-more-reliable-energy-nsw">a successful pilot study with New South Wales</a>. The government paid A$1.8 billion for just over a gigawatt of capacity, through a combination of batteries and other storage. </p>
<p>Bowen says the scheme “underwrites new renewable generation and storage, providing certainty for renewable investors and cheaper, cleaner energy for households and businesses”. And if all goes well, the scheme will provide a financial return to taxpayers. </p>
<p>Most of the country still relies on dirty coal-fired power. Several power stations have <a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-liddell-what-to-expect-when-australias-oldest-coal-plant-closes-203548">already closed</a> and many more have flagged intentions to close. The ageing fleet is also unreliable, causing power outages. Before coal exits the system, we need to replace it. This scheme will ensure that happens well in advance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s the problem?</h2>
<p>The government was not on track to achieve 82% renewables by 2030. It was clearly under pressure to do something about that. And now it has. </p>
<p>If what’s been announced today actually is built, then it’s likely we will be able to hit the target. The amount of new capacity being considered will certainly make a huge difference. So that’s 23 gigawatts of new variable renewables such as wind and solar, plus 9GW of “dispatchable” capacity, which involves storage – mainly batteries.</p>
<p>If the scheme does its job, it’s also likely to accelerate the closure of coal-fired power stations. </p>
<p>That will help us to reduce emissions but it also raises the risk of blackouts from grid instability. That’s a worry as we head into a long, hot summer. </p>
<p>We need to close the gap between closure of coal-fired power and new generators coming online to firm up the system. </p>
<p>Today’s announcement takes us to a total of 32GW nationally. Compare that to the total generation capacity of the National Electricity Market <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/national-electricity-market-fact-sheet.pdf">at about 65GW</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>How does the Capacity Investment Scheme help?</h2>
<p>Under the original scheme, the federal government has begun to run competitive tenders seeking bids for clean renewable generation projects.</p>
<p>Under the expanded scheme, successful projects will be offered contracts in which a revenue floor and ceiling are agreed with the Commonwealth.</p>
<p>This scheme will be rolled out with regular six-monthly tenders from the second quarter of the 2024–25 financial year through to 2027.</p>
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<span class="caption">If revenue earned by a project exceeds the net revenue ceiling, the owner pays the Commonwealth an agreed percentage of revenue above revenue ceiling. The Commonwealth would pay the project when revenue is below the revenue floor.</span>
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<p>In principle, it’s a good idea for two reasons. First, it provides a much greater level of certainty for investors. Difficulty getting people to invest in the renewable energy sector is one of the reasons why we’re not on track. In this case the government will be paying directly, holding auctions to guarantee a certain revenue for those who invest in these projects. In other policy instruments it’s really the consumer who ends up paying. </p>
<p>The way it’s done, through “contract the difference”, is pretty sensible, in that the government is only underwriting the risk, rather than the full amount of money. If the revenue the project actually generates in the market is within the agreed range, the government doesn’t pay anything. </p>
<p>But if the people who invested are not getting the agreed amount of financial return, the government will pay the difference. Or most of the difference anyway, through a formula yet to be worked out – but the government will certainly be contributing towards that difference. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it’s not a one-sided arrangement. If the project generates more revenue than the agreed ceiling, that money goes back to the government. So the government’s not signing up to an open chequebook. </p>
<p>Second, this approach puts all the responsibility for reliability of the grid in the hands of the states. That is, dealing with the closure of the coal plants and making sure there’s enough capacity to replace it.</p>
<p>That’s probably a good idea, because some of the states have different views about how reliability should be addressed. Some would not want to see any gas-fired generation being used to back up renewables; others may be happy to have gas-fired power or even a hydrogen power station to back up reliability. It will be up to them now. </p>
<p>Alongside these steps federal and state governments still need to step up the pressure on building transmission lines to connect all of this new renewable capacity to the grid. However, today’s announcement does nothing to address how this will be done. </p>
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<h2>What will this do to power prices?</h2>
<p>I don’t expect it to make much difference to prices. While new renewables themselves are cheap, the transmission and storage needed to back them up will not be. So they’ll probably largely balance each other out. </p>
<p>The bottom line is we will be getting a more reliable and lower-emissions electricity sector at a relatively low carbon cost. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>The Australian Labor government’s expanded Capacity Investment Scheme gives us a better chance of hitting high renewable energy targets. It’s not without risk but well worth the rewards.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177782023-11-15T19:04:46Z2023-11-15T19:04:46ZHow could Australia actually get to net zero? Here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559509/original/file-20231115-21-4neopd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C28%2C3811%2C2126&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every bit of warming matters if we want to avoid the worst impacts for climate change, as the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle">latest report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows. </p>
<p>In 2020, we released modelling showing how Australia could get to net zero faster – and keep the Paris Agreement goal of holding warming to 1.5°C in play. Our new update shows this is still the case. </p>
<p>This week, we released our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/australia-can-still-decarbonise-in-line-with-the-paris-agreement/">latest modelling</a> based on cutting emissions in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set an upper limit on warming of well below 2°C, with a commitment to strive for the lower harm limit of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>At present, the government’s 2030 goal is a 43% reduction from 2005 levels, with plans to set a further target for 2035 soon. Our new modelling of 1.5°C and well-below-2°C (1.8°C) pathways shows we must increase the pace of emissions cuts to between 48–66% for 2030 and 61%–85% for 2035. </p>
<p>This means Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2039, around a decade sooner than the current target of net zero by 2050. Our research shows this is possible. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-979" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/979/6e75228c4441731b7216d1175d0a951e4ab14cc2/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>So how do you actually do this?</h2>
<p>In July, the government announced the development of net zero plans for six sectors: electricity and energy, industry, built environment, agriculture and land, transport and resources. Treasurer Jim Chalmers <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/keynote-address-economic-and-social-outlook-conference">recently said</a> the government is preparing an ambitious policy agenda with <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-plans-an-australian-way-to-slash-emissions-rebuild-economy-20231102-p5egxb.html">big spending</a> on green industries to help cut emissions, and to grow the economy as reliance on gas and coal falls. </p>
<p>These plans are now under development. Our modelling of these sectors shows which ones must cut emissions fastest – and how to do it for the least cost. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-981" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/981/a8672726ecaef46933402f360d6aa8e8e3f0be86/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>Electricity:</strong> In these 1.5°C and well-below-2°C least-cost scenarios, the electricity sector reaches near zero between 2034 and 2038. Renewable energy is already the least-cost way to generate power. In turn, clean electricity can help decarbonise the rest of the economy. </p>
<p><strong>Industry and resources:</strong> In our scenarios, industrial emissions fall by 42% (well-below-2°C) or 54% (1.5°C) by 2035. By 2050, they fall by 54% and 67% respectively. Earlier and faster electrification and uptake of hydrogen technologies through the 2020s and 2030s drives more emissions reductions in the 1.5°C scenario.</p>
<p><strong>Buildings:</strong> Rapid emissions reductions in the building sector come from electrification and improvements in energy performance in both scenarios. Housing energy efficiency improves by 41% by 2050 compared to today’s levels.</p>
<p><strong>Agriculture and land:</strong> Cutting emissions in line with the 1.5°C goal will require much more removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, mainly through sequestration in trees or soil. This can happen without damaging agricultural production. </p>
<p>How much CO₂ we need to pull from the air depends on our ambition. For the well-under-2°C scenario, we need to remove 1.4 billion tonnes (1.4 Gt). For 1.5°C, it’s 4.6 Gt. Farming emissions such as methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from fertilisers will take longer to cut, as emissions per, say, kilogram of beef falls while production increases overall. Adding algae to livestock feed and rolling out slow and controlled-release fertilisers may help lower emissions here.</p>
<p><strong>Transport:</strong> Without strong action on transport, emissions will keep growing. Both scenarios show minimal change in total transport sector emissions until 2030. That’s because steady increases in vehicle use as our population and economy grows will prevent overall reductions – even as people go electric. </p>
<p>Under both scenarios, the transport sector changes markedly. Electric vehicles (EVs) become dominant, making up 73% of new car sales under the 1.5°C scenario or 56% in the well-below-2°C scenario. Our modelling doesn’t account for the additional potential benefits of shifting trips from cars to public transport, or from road to rail freight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-has-a-net-zero-authority-heres-what-should-top-its-agenda-205029">Australia finally has a Net Zero Authority – here's what should top its agenda</a>
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<h2>For most sectors, net zero relies on clean electricity</h2>
<p>Our modelling suggests it’s most cost effective for Australia to rapidly switch fossil fuel electricity to renewable sources and push beyond the current 82% clean energy target by 2030. We should instead aim for between 83 and 90%, and almost 100% by 2050. </p>
<p>Coal-powered electricity generation disappears before 2035 in our 1.5°C scenario, and by late 2030s in our well-below-2°C scenario. Gas-powered electricity falls sharply around the same time period. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-980" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/980/af400a9c041b67b64d42dba12e10a3cd92c77251/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>By 2050, gas-fired power stations would contribute less than 1% of total generation, only firing up briefly to firm electricity supply to the grid.</p>
<p>Under both the 1.5°C and well-below-2°C scenarios, Australia’s electricity generation increases markedly. Renewable-powered electricity generation in 2030 would be greater than the total amount of electricity generated in 2020. By 2050, it is more than three times as great.</p>
<h2>The rise of hydrogen for hard-to-tackle sectors</h2>
<p>Support for green hydrogen <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023/executive-summary">has soared</a> in recent years, both internationally and locally through government programs such as <a href="https://arena.gov.au/funding/hydrogen-headstart/">Hydrogen Headstart</a>.</p>
<p>Why the change? Because of its potential uses in hard-to-green sectors. Industrial processes such as steelmaking rely on high temperatures. Traditionally coal has been used, but hydrogen is emerging as an alternative. It may have a role in transport, through fuel-cell vehicles, and to replace gas in those industries that rely on high-temperature heat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="molten steel rods in factory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559511/original/file-20231115-29-dv3rca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Steelmaking has long been seen as hard to decarbonise. But hydrogen may offer a path to do so.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Neither of our modelled scenarios show a role for hydrogen in buildings, passenger transport or short-haul freight. That’s because electrifying homes and using battery-electric vehicles is cheaper and more market-ready. </p>
<p>But our modelling shows hydrogen can play a role in industry, long-haul freight and maritime shipping – if it becomes commercially viable for these sectors.</p>
<p>In our scenarios, domestic hydrogen demand grows to between 383 and 465 petajoules by 2050 – around 12–16% of Australia’s energy demand. </p>
<h2>Time is more precious than ever</h2>
<p>Our latest analysis shows a 1.5°C least-cost pathway would see Australia reach net zero more than a decade earlier than the current goal of 2050.</p>
<p>If Australia and the rest of the world can cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement goals, a safer and more prosperous future awaits.</p>
<p>But it’s only possible if Australia acts quickly, builds on the momentum towards net zero and seizes the enormous opportunities offered in fast decarbonisation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Skarbek is on the board of the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, Sentient Impact Group and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is a member of the Net Zero Economy Agency Advisory Board, the Grattan Institute’s energy program reference panel and the Blueprint Institute’s strategic advisory council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Malos and Michael Li do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s still possible for Australia to cut emissions in line with holding climate change to 1.5°C. Here’s how.Anna Skarbek, CEO, Climateworks CentreAnna Malos, Climateworks Centre - Country Lead, Australia, Monash UniversityMichael Li, Research and Analysis Manager, Climateworks Centre, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147642023-11-05T13:01:50Z2023-11-05T13:01:50ZCobalt nanoparticles could become a significant player in the pursuit of clean energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555884/original/file-20231025-19-xeztbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2492%2C1645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cobalt nanoparticles can be used in fuel cells and increase their applications.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/cobalt-nanoparticles-could-become-a-significant-player-in-the-pursuit-of-clean-energy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>To help address climate change, we urgently need to transition to clean energy. The energy sector is a <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/4-charts-explain-greenhouse-gas-emissions-countries-and-sectors">significant contributor</a> to greenhouse gas emissions, which are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SPM.pdf">the primary drivers of global warming</a>. </p>
<p>Our research team at Western University is innovating ways to generate clean electricity. Fuel cells are at the forefront of this endeavour, offering numerous advantages in the pursuit of sustainable energy solutions. </p>
<p>These devices offer a promising pathway to clean energy by efficiently converting chemical energy into electricity with only <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/fuel-cell-basics">water and heat as byproducts</a>. This makes them an environmentally friendly choice for electricity generation.</p>
<p>One of the most promising types of fuel cells is the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/types-fuel-cells">polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)</a> because of its applications in transportation, and portable and stationary power sources, where efficiency, responsiveness and reduced emissions are crucial factors.</p>
<h2>Platinum as a catalyst</h2>
<p>One of the major challenges hindering the widespread adoption of PEMFCs lies with the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/fuel-cells">use of platinum</a>, which is problematic due to its <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/01352385-372f-4b79-9446-a03c518ba28a">scarcity</a>. This dependency on platinum is due to its ability to facilitate the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84800-936-3_2">oxygen reduction reaction (ORR)</a>, which is a fundamental process in producing electrical energy within PEMFCs. </p>
<p>The ORR involves the reduction of oxygen molecules into water through a series of complex reactions. This process is responsible for generating the electrical power these fuel cells provide. The presence of platinum as a catalyst lowers the energy required for the reduction of oxygen molecules. Without platinum, the ORR would occur too slowly to yield practical and efficient electricity production.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/analysis/analysis-will-rising-platinum-and-iridium-prices-restrict-the-growth-of-pem-hydrogen-electrolysers-and-fuel-cells-/2-1-1460113">high cost and scarcity</a> of platinum present substantial challenges to the commercial viability of PEMFCs. The <a href="https://www.ief.org/news/energy-transition-to-trigger-huge-growth-in-platinum-for-hydrogen">increasing price</a> of platinum has made it economically prohibitive to use it in large-scale fuel cell production, preventing PEMFCs from becoming <a href="https://www.anl.gov/partnerships/enabling-fuel-cell-adoption">a mainstream clean energy solution</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a truck on a pile of rocks and dirt, three people in safety gear are in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556866/original/file-20231031-19-rbll9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The high cost and scarcity of platinum present substantial challenges to its use in large-scale fuel cell production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Our research works on creating catalysts that can replace platinum effectively. Our research team leverages cutting-edge facilities like the <a href="https://www.lightsource.ca/">Canadian Light Source</a>, <a href="https://www.aps.anl.gov/">Advanced Photon Source</a>, and the <a href="https://www.nsrrc.org.tw/English/tps.aspx">Taiwan Photon Source</a>. </p>
<p>By harnessing these resources and technologies, we explore various strategies for catalyst development, gain profound insights into their structural and chemical characteristics, and better understand how they can advance our goal of reducing dependence on platinum. </p>
<h2>Intricate realm of catalyst design</h2>
<p>Our research explores catalyst design, with a specific focus on two fundamental techniques: alloying platinum with transition metals and crafting complex core-shell structures. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21017-6">Alloying platinum</a> is the process of mixing platinum with other transition metals, to enhance catalytic performance. This approach results in catalysts with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/cnma.201900319">improved reactivity and durability</a>, rendering them highly effective across a broad spectrum of applications, including fuel cells.</p>
<p>In addition to alloying, our research also delves into the development of intricate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.accounts.2c00057">core-shell structures</a>. In this approach, a cost-effective metallic core is enveloped by several layers of shell made of another material, providing protection while further enhancing catalytic efficiency. </p>
<p>This design allows for precise control over catalytic reactions, surface property optimization and minimization of material wastage.</p>
<h2>Persistent challenges</h2>
<p>Despite our advancements, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/catal5031622">the durability of these catalysts</a> poses a challenge. Their inherent instability, which refers to their tendency to degrade, diminish in effectiveness or undergo undesirable alterations, is a substantial roadblock for real-world applications.</p>
<p>Our research team has found a potential solution: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpcc.3c04274">the infusion of cobalt dopants into the surface and near-surface region of catalysts</a>. This creates platinum-based catalysts capable of withstanding harsh conditions and the passage of time. This significantly enhances the durability and effectiveness of these catalysts.</p>
<p>Our team developed novel particles — cobalt-doped palladium-platinum core-shell — which possess a distinctive octahedral structure and exceptional resilience to both harsh chemical environments and prolonged use. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1718689162940014831"}"></div></p>
<p>This innovative nanoscale structure, featuring a core of palladium and an outer shell of platinum, with the addition of cobalt atom into the platinum shell, provides these nanoparticles with exceptional durability. They exhibit a remarkable ability to withstand degradation and maintain their catalytic activity over extended periods.</p>
<p>Following a thorough examination involving 20,000 accelerated durability test cycles, designed to provide a better understanding of how catalysts degrade in carefully controlled laboratory conditions, their performance only saw a minimal decrease of two per cent when compared to their initial state at the beginning of the testing.</p>
<h2>Potential future</h2>
<p>Cobalt-doped palladium-platinum core-shell nanoparticles have the potential to revolutionize fuel cell technology. Their promise as highly efficient and enduring ORR catalysts points the way toward a more sustainable energy future.</p>
<p>Our research aligns with the urgent need to combat <a href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/climate-change">climate change as a global crisis</a>. By replacing fossil fuels with cleaner energy alternatives, we can contribute to a more sustainable and resilient future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tsun-Kong (T.K.) Sham receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), Canada Research Chair (CRC), Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Feizabadi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nanoparticles can help address a dependency on platinum — a rare and expensive material — to generate clean power.Tsun-Kong (T.K.) Sham, Distinguished University Professor, Chemistry, Western UniversityAli Feizabadi, Research Assistant, Chemistry, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2161702023-10-24T04:23:53Z2023-10-24T04:23:53ZPushing water uphill: Snowy 2.0 was a bad idea from the start. Let’s not make the same mistake again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555503/original/file-20231024-15-9cuz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C28%2C3822%2C2126&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-23/snowy-hydro-sinkhole-toxic-gas-tunnelling-four-corners/102995568">ABC’s Four Corners</a> investigated the problem-plagued Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro power station, focusing on a bogged tunnelling machine, toxic gas and an unexpected volume of sludge. </p>
<p>While these specific problems are new, we have criticised this project <a href="https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-125017">since 2019</a> and outlined <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move-139112">six key problems</a> even earlier <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">elsewhere</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="snowy hydro scheme hydroelectricity plant, with pipes and turbines and a lake" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555484/original/file-20231024-15-oy1pz3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The original Snowy Hydro scheme is regarded as a major nation-building project for Australia. But will Snowy 2.0 be seen the same way?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>In March 2017, then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/securing-australias-energy-future-with-snowy-mountains-2.0">announced the project</a>, lauding it as a game changer for our clean-energy revolution. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbull-says-his-biggest-leadership-failure-was-on-climate-change-83289">his memoir</a>, Turnbull dubbed Snowy 2.0 “the single most important and enduring decision of the many I made on energy”.</p>
<p>Alas, Snowy 2.0 has not gone well. The warning signs were there from the start. Both the government-appointed Snowy Hydro Board and federal government were warned they had <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/why-snowy-20-is-a-writeoff-from-the-start-20180104-h0d9z4">greatly under-costed it</a>, underestimated the construction time and failed to recognise the <a href="https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=SUB-5110%2120191106T014221.508%20GMT">damage it would do</a> to the Kosciuszko National Park. </p>
<p>In August this year, the government bumped up funding for Snowy 2.0 to A$12 billion – triple the October 2018 figure, when the final decision was made to go ahead, and six times what Turnbull first claimed it would cost in March 2017. That’s before counting the new transmission lines through the controversial HumeLink and VNI West transmission projects. When complete, Snowy 2.0 plus transmission could cost upwards of $20 billion – over ten times the figure Turnbull claimed. </p>
<p>Energy minister Chris Bowen put the Snowy failures and blowouts down to poor execution. Was it still worthwhile? Yes, he said. But Bowen also admits to being swayed by the sunk cost – the government has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/florence-the-2400-tonne-machine-that-came-to-symbolise-snowy-2-0-s-woes-20230901-p5e17w.html">already spent</a> over $4 billion on it. </p>
<p>Snowy Hydro’s new CEO Dennis Barnes <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/securing-the-future-of-critical-energy-transformation-resets/">has claimed</a> that while costs have blown out, the public benefits have increased as well. </p>
<p>To date, nothing has been released to substantiate claims of extra benefit despite requests by journalists and by the Senate. All that has been released is a one-page <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-snowy-hydro-corporate-plan-update">press release</a> and a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Tabled_Documents/3774">highly redacted report</a>. </p>
<h2>What are the lessons here?</h2>
<p>Pumped hydro is essentially a hydroelectricity plant with the ability to pump water back up to the top reservoir. You use cheap power to pump it uphill, and run water back down through turbines to generate power as needed. </p>
<p>The technology isn’t new. It had a previous burst of popularity in developed nations in the 1970s. But since then, there’s been very little pumped hydro built <a href="https://www.hydroreview.com/hydro-industry-news/pumped-storage-hydro/china-three-gorges-begins-construction-of-1-7-gw-tiantai-pumped-storage-power-station/#gref">except in China</a>. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, Australia has had three pumped-hydro generators supplying the National Electricity Market, two in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Data on their generation shows they have only <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/v-nem">a minor role in energy storage</a>.</p>
<p>None of these are comparable to Snowy 2.0, which would be vastly bigger than any we’ve built before. Snowy 2.0 has by far the longest tunnels – 27 kilometres – of any pumped-hydro station ever built. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move-139112">NSW has approved Snowy 2.0. Here are six reasons why that's a bad move</a>
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<p>Even our smaller pumped-hydro projects are proving harder to complete than expected. The depleted Kidston gold mine in Queensland is being converted to a 250 megawatt pumped-hydro station. The project is much simpler and smaller than Snowy 2.0 and has had extensive policy and financial support by federal and state governments. But it too is running <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/genex-resumes-work-on-pumped-hydro-flagship-as-billionaire-bidder-bides-his-time/#:%7E:text=The%20company%20insists%20that%20the,to%20%2415%20million%20over%20budget.">over budget and late</a>, although not remotely close to the same extent as Snowy 2.0.</p>
<p>These projects present hard and expensive engineering problems. They do not deliver economies from learning because each is different from the other. </p>
<p>By contrast, chemical batteries are increasingly standardised. They’re attracting huge investment in research and production. They improve the capacity of existing transmission. They’re made in factories so become cheaper as the industry scales, they have much lower capital outlays per unit of storage, so you get a much quicker payback. And you can resell them easily. </p>
<h2>How did we make such an expensive mistake?</h2>
<p>One simple explanation is that it was a political decision. The original Snowy Hydro scheme is famed as a nation-building project in post-war Australia. Snowy 2.0 was framed in the same way. Then there’s the need to be seen to “do something”, with economic and technical merit a distant third place. </p>
<p>But there’s another factor – a failure to acknowledge the pace of technology change in ever-better solar panels and wind turbines as well as in battery storage. Apparently insurmountable problems are being solved quickly, such as rapid manufacturing and installation of solar panels, the ability to harness low quality winds, and producing batteries able to service different markets at different points in the grid.</p>
<p>Given the pace of change, it would seem sensible to make the most of cheaper solutions which can be built quickly and don’t lock us in or out to technologies for the long term. </p>
<p>In practice, that means we should focus first on Australia’s <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/insights/market-reports/how-much-rooftop-solar-can-be-installed-in-australia">huge potential</a> for solar on warehouse and factory rooftops close to our cities. It’s easy to store rooftop solar surpluses for local use. We should make the most of the enormous local potential before reaching for complex, risky, expensive and distant alternatives. </p>
<p>By analogy, don’t try to summit the mountain before climbing its foothills. From base camp, we are bound to find the mountain looks quite different to how we imagined it from a great distance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-ensure-the-worlds-largest-pumped-hydro-dam-isnt-a-disaster-for-queenslands-environment-191758">How to ensure the world's largest pumped-hydro dam isn't a disaster for Queensland's environment</a>
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<p><em>Energy expert Ted Woodley contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Storing energy in large pumped hydro schemes sounds simple. But engineering and terrain challenges have put Snowy 2.0 well off track – while grid-scale batteries get better and betterBruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139732023-09-21T03:04:40Z2023-09-21T03:04:40ZNet zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549480/original/file-20230921-19-81d6pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C10%2C7324%2C4882&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/dramatic-climate-action-needed-curtail-extreme-weather">heightened drumbeat</a> of extreme weather shows us how little time we actually have to slash emissions. </p>
<p>It is now clear that going slow on cutting greenhouse gas emissions is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/ar6-syr/">much more expensive</a> than taking action. At this week’s climate ambition summit, United Nations secretary general António Guterres <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/20/antonio-guterres-un-climate-summit-gates-hell">warned</a> the world is “decades behind” in the transition to clean energy. </p>
<p>The UN’s new <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/global-stocktake-unlocking-trillions-climate-action">Global Stocktake</a> makes clear we need to accelerate the race to net zero. </p>
<p>It’s time to act as quickly as humanly possible. This week, Australia’s leading engineers and technology experts from the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/australias-leading-engineers-and-technologists-call-for-net-zero-by-2035/">have called</a> for Australia to get to net zero 15 years quicker than our current goal of 2050 to be more consistent with a 1.5°C trajectory.</p>
<p>It will be hard. But ask yourself – what is the alternative?</p>
<p>To shake us out of business as usual, we have to fast-track regulatory change, upskill the workforce, future-proof national infrastructure, embed a zero-waste approach to supply chains and massively boost business investment. Here’s how. </p>
<h2>The net zero grid</h2>
<p>Per capita, Australia is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-the-runaway-global-leader-in-building-new-renewable-energy-123694">world leader</a> in solar and wind generation. But we’ll need more as we electrify the entire economy, which will <a href="https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/">triple demand</a>. </p>
<p>To get there means investing in distribution, transmission, battery and pumped hydro storage and grid integration. All of this has to be fast-tracked through closer engagement with communities and streamlined regulations.</p>
<p>Electrifying our export industries <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123563">is vital</a> for both Australia’s and the world’s net zero efforts. This would make full use of our advantages in cheap power from renewables such as by making green hydrogen, which can help with green chemical and green metals manufacturing. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-really-address-climate-change-australia-could-make-27-times-as-much-electricity-and-make-it-renewable-179311">To really address climate change, Australia could make 27 times as much electricity and make it renewable</a>
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<p>Pulling carbon dioxide back out of the air is another potential “export” industry. <a href="https://theconversation.com/direct-air-capture-how-advanced-is-technology-to-suck-up-carbon-dioxide-and-could-it-slow-climate-change-189260">Direct air capture</a> will be needed to bring levels in the atmosphere back down, and Australia could use cheap renewable energy to do it, and sell the credits to offset hard-to-abate areas such as plane flights. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar and wind farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549481/original/file-20230921-29-qbx8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar, wind, storage and transmission – the new grid.</span>
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<h2>Embrace the circular economy</h2>
<p>Supply chains of products and raw materials put out emissions at every step along the way. Some emissions are from activities in Australia, others overseas. But all end up in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Fixing this means slashing waste and removing emissions at every stage of production, from raw materials to recycling. Our food systems produce <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">an estimated 29% of global emissions</a> but around 30–40% of food is wasted. </p>
<p>But it’s more than that. The end goal must be <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/research-and-policy/publications/publication/towards-a-waste-free-future/">embracing a circular economy</a>, where overconsumption is phased out and waste becomes the feedstock for new products. We can greatly accelerate our efforts by working with European authorities, given they are <a href="https://co2value.eu/">far ahead of Australia here</a>. </p>
<h2>Make our buildings run cleaner</h2>
<p>Emissions from our buildings come largely from electricity and gas use, with embodied emissions from, say, the use of concrete in construction a smaller concern. Here, the low-hanging fruit is moving to zero-emissions electricity and <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">switching from gas to electricity</a>. </p>
<p>Banning <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/guides-and-resources/strategies-and-initiatives/victorias-gas-substitution-roadmap#:%7E:text=Starting%20January%201%202024%2C%20planning,and%20infill%20sites%20across%20Victoria.">new household connections</a> to the gas network as Victoria and the ACT are doing, is another opportunity.</p>
<p>When gas heaters reach their end of life, we can require they be replaced by electric heaters. This won’t significantly increase the grid demand if high efficiency heat pumps are used.</p>
<p>And we should boost efficiency standards still further for new buildings and major renovations. Australia’s new <a href="https://ncc.abcb.gov.au/editions/ncc-2022">National Construction Code</a> will help, but more can be done.</p>
<p>In the longer term, cement made without emissions and new construction methods will help further cut emissions.</p>
<h2>Electrify transport</h2>
<p>After a slow start, electric cars are finally gaining popularity in Australia. Now we’re seeing electric utes and trucks. Electric buses are already on the roads in some states. This is essential. Now it’s time to speed it up. </p>
<p>We need all states and territories on board to plan for a phase-out of internal combustion engines, coupled with better investment in public and private charging infrastructure. </p>
<p>Electrifying transport will give us enormous battery packs in our driveways – often several times the capacity of a home battery. New technologies such as <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2021/01/revs-the-a-to-z-of-v2g.pdf">vehicle-to-grid</a> will let us use our cars as grid backup and give households security if there’s a blackout. </p>
<p>Shipping giants are working on the challenge of cleaning up emissions, while work is being done on electric planes. These are harder nuts to crack, but already there are <a href="https://www.cntraveler.com/story/electric-ferries">electric ferries</a> up and running in Europe and short-trip <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/business/2023/03/24/australias-first-commercially-produced-electric-aircraft-takes-off-in-adelaide/">electric planes</a> on sale in Australia. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="electric bus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549482/original/file-20230921-21-pyooy1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Electrifying transport comes with hidden benefits such as cleaner air – and a battery on wheels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Farming and mining</h2>
<p>Some farms are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-27/rural-properties-going-off-grid-rewewables-for-energy-security/101637758">already running</a> on solar and storage for cost and energy security reasons. But there’s more to do, such as slashing emissions of the potent greenuouse gas nitrous oxide from fertilisers using <a href="https://www.nzagrc.org.nz/domestic/nitrous-oxide-research-programme/nitrification-inhibitors/">nitrification inhibitors</a>. </p>
<p>In mining, some operators are rapidly cleaning up their operations – and often for cost reasons. Running a mine site on diesel is expensive. We need to accelerate the shift here towards powering grinding machines, excavators and ore trains with renewables. </p>
<p>Some problems don’t yet have off-the-shelf solutions, such as reducing methane from livestock or producing steel cost-effectively without using coal. </p>
<p>These hard-to-cut sources of emissions will need significant and sustained investment to produce practical and cost-effective technologies solving the problems. </p>
<h2>Technology – and talking</h2>
<p>Swapping fossil fuels for clean technologies will take talking as well as technology. Many of us find change confronting, especially at this pace. </p>
<p>So we need to do this right, sharing economic benefits and preserving the social fabric of communities and avoiding damaging nature. The debate over new transmission lines is a case in point. </p>
<p>We’ll need an <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102">honest national conversation</a> – and one that isn’t limited to expert, government and industry circles. </p>
<p>We have new institutions to help us move faster, such as the Net Zero Authority, the new mandates for the Climate Change Authority, and the sector-level net zero plans in progress. </p>
<p>Now we need to get on and do it. Yes, it’s faster than we thought possible. But fast is now necessary.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tim-flannerys-message-to-all-rise-up-and-become-a-climate-leader-be-the-change-we-need-so-desperately-213066">Tim Flannery's message to all: rise up and become a climate leader – be the change we need so desperately</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Howden is a board member of CO2 Value Australia.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads research projects funded by a range of organisations. None of these create a conflict of interest regarding this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin has received funding from the Australian Research Council, and the DFAT Partnerships for Infrastructure program. He is chair of the ACT Government’s Industry Advisory Board for the Renewable Energy Innovation Fund, and is a non-executive director of the Australian Hydrogen Research Network.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kylie Catchpole receives funding from ARENA and industry partners related to solar technology development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kylie Walker is the CEO of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lachlan Blackhall has received, or is currently receiving, project funding from ARENA, the federal government, several state governments, and multiple industry partners for work related to energy storage and grid integration. He is a Director of Engineers Australia and the independent chair (unpaid) of the DEIP Interoperability Steering Committee (ISC). He was previously the co-founder and CTO of Reposit Power, but is no longer a shareholder, director, or employee of Reposit Power and receives no remuneration from Reposit Power.</span></em></p>We’ve wasted a lot of time delaying climate action. As the damage becomes ever clearer, it’s time to accelerate the transition.Mark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityFrank Jotzo, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy and Head of Energy, Institute for Climate Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityKen Baldwin, Inaugural Director, ANU Grand Challenge, Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia Pacific, Australian National UniversityKylie Catchpole, Associate Professor of Solar Engineering, Australian National UniversityKylie Walker, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLachlan Blackhall, Entrepreneurial Fellow and Head, Battery Storage and Grid Integration Program, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2107232023-09-10T20:05:59Z2023-09-10T20:05:59ZSolar panel technology is set to be turbo-charged – but first, a few big roadblocks have to be cleared<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543607/original/file-20230821-255381-6ttzir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C6434%2C3939&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar panel technology has made enormous progress in the last two decades. In fact, the most advanced silicon solar cells produced today are <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenergylett.0c01790">about as good</a> as the technology will get.</p>
<p>So what’s next? Enter “tandem solar cells”, the new generation in solar technology. They can convert a much greater portion of sunlight into electricity than conventional solar cells.</p>
<p>The technology promises to fast-track the global transition away from polluting sources of energy generation such as coal and gas. But there’s a major catch.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D3EE00952A">our new research</a> shows, current tandem solar cells must be redesigned if they’re to be manufactured at the scale required to become the climate-saving technology the planet needs. </p>
<h2>The solar story so far</h2>
<p>A solar cell is a device that turns sunlight into electricity. One important measure when it comes to solar cells is their efficiency – the proportion of sunlight they can convert into electricity.</p>
<p>Almost all solar panels we see today are made from “photovoltaic” silicon cells. When light hits the silicon cell, electrons inside it produce an electric current.</p>
<p>The first silicon photovoltaic cell, demonstrated in 1954 in the United States, had an <a href="https://www.science.org.au/curious/technology-future/solar-pv">efficiency of about 5%</a>. That means that for every unit of the Sun’s energy the cell received, 5% was turned into electricity.</p>
<p>But the technology has since developed. At the end of last year, <a href="https://www.longi.com/en/news/propelling-the-transformation/">Chinese solar manufacturer LONGi announced</a> a new world-record efficiency for silicon solar cells of 26.81%.</p>
<p>Silicon solar cells will never be able to convert 100% of the Sun’s energy into electricity. That’s mostly because an individual material can absorb only a limited proportion of the solar spectrum.</p>
<p>To help increase efficiency – and so continue to reduce the cost of solar electricity – new technology is needed. That’s where tandem solar cells come in.</p>
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<h2>A promising new leap</h2>
<p>Tandem solar cells use two different materials which absorb energy from the Sun together. In theory, it means the cell can absorb more of the solar spectrum – and so produce more electricity – than if just one material is used (such as silicon alone).</p>
<p>Using this approach, researchers overseas <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/05/30/kaust-claims-33-7-efficiency-for-perovskite-silicon-tandem-solar-cell/">recently achieved</a> a tandem solar cell efficiency of 33.7%. They <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adi6278">did this by</a> building a thin solar cell with a material called <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/engineering/our-schools/photovoltaic-and-renewable-energy-engineering/our-research/research-activities/perovskite-solar-cells">perovskite</a> directly on top of a traditional silicon solar cell. </p>
<p>Traditional silicon solar panels still dominate manufacturing. But leading solar manufacturers <a href="https://www.pv-tech.org/qcells-to-invest-us100-million-in-perovskite-tandem-production-line/">have signalled plans</a> to commercialise the tandem cell technology.</p>
<p>Such is the potential of tandem solar cells, they are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy201515">poised to overtake</a> the conventional technology in coming decades. But the expansion will be thwarted, unless the technology is redesigned with new, more abundant materials.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-worth-investing-in-a-battery-for-your-rooftop-solar-heres-what-buyers-need-to-know-but-often-cant-find-out-209219">Is it worth investing in a battery for your rooftop solar? Here's what buyers need to know (but often can't find out)</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="automated solar cell production line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543609/original/file-20230821-225972-z8sj6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tandem solar cells cannot overtake existing technology (pictured) unless they are redesigned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem of materials</h2>
<p>Almost all tandem solar cells involve a design known as “silicon heterojunction”. Solar cells made in this way normally require more silver, and more of the chemical element indium, than other solar cell designs. </p>
<p>But silver and indium are <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d1ee01814k">scarce materials</a>. </p>
<p>Silver is used in thousands of applications, including manufacturing, making it highly sought after. In fact, global demand for silver <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/record-demand-pushes-silver-into-new-era-deficits-silver-institute-says-2023-04-19/">reportedly rose by 18%</a> last year.</p>
<p>Likewise, <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/07/20/touchscreen-alternative-allays-fear-of-world-indium-shortage.html">indium is used</a> to make touchscreens and other smart devices. But it’s extremely rare and only found in tiny traces.</p>
<p>This scarcity isn’t a problem for tandem solar technology yet, because it hasn’t yet been produced in large volumes. But our research shows this scarcity could limit the ability of manufacturers to ramp up production volumes in future.</p>
<p>This may represent a substantial roadblock in tackling climate change. By mid-century, the world must install <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adf6957">62 times more solar power capacity</a> than is currently built, to enable the clean energy shift. </p>
<p>Clearly, a major redesign of tandem solar cells is urgently needed to enable this exponential acceleration of solar deployment.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-maximise-savings-from-your-home-solar-system-and-slash-your-power-bills-197415">How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="lumps of silver" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543610/original/file-20230821-218096-jqcbca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Silver is a key component in much electronics manufacturing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Ramping up the transition</h2>
<p>Some silicon solar cells don’t use indium and require only a small amount of silver. Research and development is urgently needed to make these cells compatible with tandem technology. Thankfully, this work has <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aenm.202200821">already begun</a> – but more is needed.</p>
<p>A scarcity of materials is not the only barrier to overcome. Tandem solar cells must also be made more durable. Solar panels we see everywhere today are <a href="https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/solar-panel-warranty">generally guaranteed</a> to produce a decent amount of electricity for at least 25 years. Perovskite-on-silicon tandem cells <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41578-022-00521-1">don’t last as long</a>.</p>
<p>Solar power has already shaken up electricity generation in Australia and around the world. But in the race to tackle climate change, this is only the beginning. </p>
<p>Tandem solar cell research is truly global, conducted within a range of countries, including Australia. The technology offers a promising way forward. But the materials used to make them must be urgently reconsidered.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruno Vicari Stefani receives funding from the CSIRO Research Office. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Wright receives funding from UK Research and Innovation. </span></em></p>Tandem solar cells promise to revolutionise the clean energy transition – but a shortage of materials means they must urgently be redesigned.Bruno Vicari Stefani, CERC Fellow, Solar Technologies, CSIROMatthew Wright, Postdoctoral Researcher in Photovoltaic Engineering, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123742023-09-06T20:11:52Z2023-09-06T20:11:52ZFarmers are famously self-reliant. Why not use farm dams as mini-hydro plants?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546595/original/file-20230906-29-akhiiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=178%2C125%2C3316%2C2195&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Farmers often pride themselves on their self-reliance. When you live far from the cities, it makes sense to do as much as possible yourself. Australia’s sheer size has meant many remote farms have long been off grid as it’s often simply too expensive to get a power connection. But for those still on the grid, there are now new options. </p>
<p>As solar gets cheaper, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-27/rural-properties-going-off-grid-rewewables-for-energy-security/101637758">more and more</a> farms are aiming to become self-reliant in power. But until now, getting fully off the grid has had a sticking point – solar intermittency. Solar power might be cheaper than ever, but if you don’t have storage or backup, you’re still reliant on the grid when the sun doesn’t shine.</p>
<p>Batteries are a compelling solution. But they might not offer a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">full day’s backup</a> and come <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">with concerns</a> about fire risk and waste. </p>
<p>Generators offer reliable backup. But they too <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125089">have downsides</a> – they have to be resupplied and produce harmful emissions. </p>
<p>For farmers, there’s now another option: connect one of your dams to a river – or link two dams together – to create a small pumped hydro plant to store electricity from solar to use at night. The water in your dams could offer yet another form of self-reliance.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121715">new research</a> has identified over 30,000 rural sites where micro pumped hydro could work. A typical site could produce two kilowatts of power and store 30 kilowatt hours of energy – enough to run a <a href="https://ahd.csiro.au/other-data/typical-house-energy-use">typical home</a> in South Australia for 40 hours. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="farm dam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545207/original/file-20230829-17-sr0s41.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Micro pumped hydro is surprisingly simple: two dams, a pump and a turbine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Massive to micro? Yes, pumped hydro can work on farms</h2>
<p>Pumped hydro is essentially turning hydroelectric power into a battery as well. </p>
<p>Take two reservoirs, where one is higher than the other. When you have extra solar power, you store it. How? By using the energy to pump water uphill to the top reservoir. When you need power later on, you release water down to the lower reservoir and produce electricity with a turbine.</p>
<p>At large scale, these plants are an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">established and efficient</a> way to store energy, though they can suffer from cost blowouts, as in the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bowen-backs-snowy-2-0-pumped-hydro-project-despite-6-billion-blowout-20230831-p5e0u7.html">Snowy 2.0 scheme</a>. Queensland’s government <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/borumba-dam-pumped-hydro">is planning</a> massive pumped hydro schemes to act as batteries. </p>
<p>Until recently, small-scale pumped hydro hasn’t made much economic sense. </p>
<p>But the steadily falling cost of solar means the numbers have changed. It’s now more cost effective to get larger arrays. And that opens up opportunities to find ways to store surplus electricity generated in daytime. </p>
<p>For farmers, another opportunity is the ability to use existing dams and reduce pumped hydro construction costs.</p>
<p>If it’s cheaper, it’s much more viable. Early research on solar-powered irrigation systems using pumped hydro suggests the payback period for this kind of energy storage could be up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114284">four times shorter</a> than for batteries.</p>
<p>What’s the catch? As you might have guessed, this solution depends on the size of existing farm dams and rivers, and topography of the land.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<p>The steeper the slope between the two water bodies, the more useful the system will be as energy storage. To get the most out of these systems means finding the sites with the most potential value. And it’s likely the solution won’t work for farms on flat ground – you need a drop of at least 20 metres. </p>
<p>You’re probably wondering how this stacks up financially. We compared a micro pumped hydro system with 42.6kWh capacity and able to discharge 3.6kW to a commercial lithium-ion battery, the Tesla Powerwall, able to store 13.5kWh and discharge 5.0kW. </p>
<p>We found micro pumped hydro storage was 30% cheaper than a battery if locally generated solar was regularly needed overnight – such as to power a 24/7 irrigation system. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="pumped hydro" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546596/original/file-20230906-21-5xaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">To date, most pumped hydro plants have been larger – but they can now work on a smaller scale too. This image shows Turlough Hill pumped hydro station in Ireland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Australia has thousands of potential sites</h2>
<p>Our research is the first continent-wide assessment of potential pumped hydro farm dam sites. </p>
<p>How did we figure out how many sites would suit micro pumped hydro? The magic of maths. We used algorithms from graph theory, as these are used to model networks, and set them loose on a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/RS13020319">2021 survey</a> of 1.7 million Australian farm dams. We didn’t want to raise people’s hopes if their dams weren’t suitable, so we set the minimum capacity at 24kWh (similar to a typical home battery after efficiency losses) and with a minimum slope of 17%, to make it price competitive with a battery. </p>
<p>That’s how we came up with our figure of 30,000 promising sites, including dam-to-dam and dam-to-river sites. Dam-to-river sites are a good option if you have a dam at a reasonable elevation above a river – you can pump water uphill from the river and return it later to make power. </p>
<p><iframe id="MoC99" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MoC99/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What’s next for this approach?</h2>
<p>You can make this approach more efficient by using new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.018">all-in-one hardware</a>, such as combined turbines and water pumps, as well as integrating it with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114284">smart irrigation management</a>.</p>
<p>To be clear, this solution won’t work for every landholder. If you’re farming wheat on flat plains, you’re unlikely to have the slope needed to make it work. </p>
<p>If you’re considering getting storage to go off grid, it’s essential to consider the pros and cons of each technology and how it would suit your local conditions. </p>
<p>For instance, if you’re in a drought-prone area with limited groundwater, it may not make sense to install pumped hydro. During a drought, you may well need the water on the farm. Our research assumes 70% of the water in the dams is available for use, which does not account for droughts or irrigation needs.</p>
<p>But for some landholders, this may be the missing part of the puzzle. Wind and solar installation is skyrocketing [around the world]. This, in turn, is boosting demand for cost-effective energy storage. Given there are 30,000 suitable farm dams in Australia alone, it’s likely this technology could play a valuable role around the world – especially for farmers in remote areas or where grid connection is too expensive. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-of-gravity-and-water-we-found-1-500-new-pumped-hydro-sites-next-to-existing-reservoirs-194330">Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Study co-author Martino E. Malerba is supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (project ID DE220100752).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martino Malerba is supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council (project ID DE220100752)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Britz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our research has found 30,000 farm dams which could be used as energy storage. Solar by day, hydro by night.Nicholas Gilmore, Lecturer in Engineering Design, UNSW SydneyMartino Malerba, ARC DECRA Fellow, Deakin UniversityThomas Britz, Senior Lecturer, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114742023-09-06T19:11:25Z2023-09-06T19:11:25ZHow recycling could solve the shortage of minerals essential to clean energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544662/original/file-20230824-21082-9pxfgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=530%2C0%2C4895%2C2651&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do silver, silicon and gallium have in common? These expensive raw materials are essential components of our various solar energy technologies. What about neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium? These rare earth metals are used to <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/2ea6ecb2-40e2-11eb-b27b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en">build the powerful magnets in wind turbines</a>. </p>
<p>Keeping our planet liveable requires <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">accelerated clean energy transitions</a> by governments — <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">global carbon emissions must</a> halve by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>But a more ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies. As the global energy sector <a href="https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review">shifts from fossil fuels to clean energy</a>, the demand of <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals">precious metals</a> — known as critical minerals — is increasing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Critical minerals are vital for renewable energy. We must learn to mine them responsibly</a>
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<p>A striking example is lithium, a metal used in electric vehicle batteries. Between 2018 and 2022, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/australias-potential-in-the-lithium-market">the demand for lithium increased by 25 per cent per year</a>. Under a net-zero scenario, lithium demand by 2040 could be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">over 40 times what it was in 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Supply and demand</h2>
<p>The current challenge lies in a supply and demand mismatch. The projected demand for critical minerals exceeds the available supply. Basic principles of economics dictate higher prices for these minerals. </p>
<p>In addition, critical minerals have a geographically concentrated supply. These metals are only extracted from <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/42881">a handful of countries and are overwhelmingly processed in China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing the demand for important metals is outpacing supply" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The current production rates of critical metals are likely to be inadequate to satisfy future demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(International Monetary Fund)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China, for example, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023/clean-energy-supply-chains-vulnerabilities">extracts 60 per cent and processes 90 per cent</a> of all rare earth elements. In comparison, the top oil-producing country — the United States — accounts for only <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ffd2a83b-8c30-4e9d-980a-52b6d9a86fdc/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">18 per cent of the extraction and 20 per cent of the processing of the whole industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The geographical concentration may result in additional supply constraints. Indonesia, the world’s first nickel producer, has progressively <a href="https://www.iea.org/policies/16084-prohibition-of-the-export-of-nickel-ore">banned the export of nickel ore overseas</a> in an attempt to strengthen domestic processing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in total processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lack of geographical diversity in supply can increase price volatility. Lithium prices <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-slump-puts-chinas-spot-price-under-spotlight-andy-home-2023-05-19/">rose more than 400 per cent in 2022, before dropping again by 65 per cent in 2023</a>. Copper prices soared in Peru following <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/disruptions-raise-chance-copper-supply-tightness-2023-02-03/">social unrest and mine blockades</a>.</p>
<p>China, which controls 98 per cent of the gallium supply, created a 40 per cent spike in 2023 on gallium prices by setting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-controls-take-effect-wait-gallium-germanium-export-permits-begins-2023-08-01/">severe restriction on exports</a> due to “national security reasons.”</p>
<p>If supply constraints continue, the prices of critical minerals could become too high. Installing clean energy could become too expensive, and governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets. </p>
<p>The demand and supply balance must be restored by one of two ways: either by decreasing the demand for critical materials or increasing their supply.</p>
<h2>Restoring balance</h2>
<p>The most obvious way to restore the balance between supply and demand — more mining — is tricky. Mining is environmentally destructive and <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/will-mining-resources-needed-clean-energy-cause-problems-environment">damages ecosystems and communities</a>. Plans for opening new mines in <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/energie/mines-de-lithium-en-france-des-projets-mais-encore-beaucoup-d-interrogations_5546643.html">France</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbian-pm-sees-no-chance-reviving-rio-tinto-lithium-project-2022-12-13/">Serbia</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102912">Portugal</a> have seen massive social opposition, leaving their future uncertain. </p>
<p>Opening a new mine can take <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/discovery-to-production-averages-15-7-years-for-127-mines">more than 15 years on average</a>, so projects started today might arrive too late. While some capacity can be built quicker by reopening old mines, and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-embarking-on-a-mining-renaissance-winning-over-locals-is-proving-a-challenge-b7d14f5f">some projects are already underway</a>, supply imbalances are expected to be <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/afc35261-41b2-47d4-86d6-d5d77fc259be/CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf">inevitable by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond mining, two alternative practical approaches exist. The first is to reduce the demand for critical minerals by clean energy technologies. With innovation and research and development, clean energy products can be redesigned to use less material in each generation. </p>
<p>The silver content in solar cells <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/solar-driven-silver-demand-set-to-dim-as-sector-innovates-60533352">dropped by 80 per cent in one decade</a>. Likewise, the cathodes in new electric vehicle batteries <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/battery-makers-slash-cobalt-intensity-in-the-face-of-accelerating-demand-71813202">contain up to six times less cobalt</a> than older models.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A block of a silvery mineral is held in gloved hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Refined tellurium, a rare mineral used in solar panels, is shown at the Rio Tinto Kennecott refinery in May 2022 in Magna, Utah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second alternative is to increase the supply of critical minerals by recovering them from older and used clean technology products via advanced recycling. Decommissioned solar panels might no longer produce energy but can be a valuable source of silver or silicon. </p>
<p>Our past research has shown that <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power">discarded solar panels could outweigh new installations by the next decade</a> as installers <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2019/short-lived-solar-panels-economic-0919">seek to replace older panels with newer, more efficient ones</a>.</p>
<p>By recovering critical minerals from this waste <a href="https://hillnotes.ca/2023/04/21/electrical-and-electronic-equipment-waste-an-urban-mine-with-great-potential/">in a process known as urban mining</a>, we could cover the demand for the materials needed for future energy installations.</p>
<h2>Recycling is the way forward</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4424516">recent research with our colleague Luk Van Wassenhove</a> compares the economic consequences of these two alternative approaches. If the scarcity of critical minerals is not extreme, reducing the critical material content of clean energy products would be the way to go. </p>
<p>However, unintended consequences can be expected akin to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00026">rebound effect or Jevon’s paradox</a>: by improving the efficiency of usage of critical minerals, producers can end up consuming more of it. </p>
<p>As clean energy products use less critical material, their improved profitability could increase production even more. As a result, decreasing the material usage per product won’t necessarily lead to a decrease in critical material demand overall.</p>
<p>In contrast, our research suggests that recycling decommissioned products is not subject to such a rebound effect. A steady stream of recycled materials from end-of-life products protects producers from volatile commodity prices and better facilitates the critical energy transition.</p>
<p>Setting up a recycling ecosystem requires greater effort than marginally changing a product’s design. Firms need a cost-efficient reverse logistics system, recycling plants and infrastructure to get enough end-of-use products back and to process them. Sizeable initial capital investments will take time to recover and require firms and policymakers to adopt a long-term mindset.</p>
<p>But there’s room for optimism. The start-up ROSI Solar opened its first recycling plant in 2023, making France a pioneer in <a href="https://recyclinginternational.com/business/mega-solar-recycling-plant-not-a-dream-of-the-future/53692/">recovering high-purity silicon, silver and copper from end-of-use solar panels</a>. </p>
<p>Likewise, the U.S.-based <a href="https://www.solarcycle.us/">SOLARCYCLE can recycle 95 per cent of valuable materials in solar panels</a>. Many electric vehicle makers, like <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2023/07/04/nissan-takes-the-long-complex-approach-to-recycling-old-ev-batteries/">Tesla, Renault and Nissan</a>, have started projects to recycle batteries and ensure a riskless cobalt, nickel and lithium supply. Recycling may indeed be the path to affordable clean energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The demand for the minerals needed to build clean energy technology currently exceeds the available supply. If this issue continues, governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets.Serasu Duran, Assistant Professor, Operations and Supply Chain Management at Haskayne School of Business, University of CalgaryAtalay Atasu, Professor of Technology and Operations Management, INSEADClara Carrera, PhD Candidate in Technology and Operations Management, INSEADLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123752023-09-05T02:53:51Z2023-09-05T02:53:51ZEvery country can make a difference – but carbon reductions need to be realistic and fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546126/original/file-20230904-15-cssrkf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5130%2C3409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This weekend, the world’s major economies will convene in Delhi for the G20 summit. On the table will be the common goal of limiting global temperature rise as climate chaos becomes ever more evident.</p>
<p>When we talk about limiting climate change, we’re really talking about the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">global carbon budget</a> set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Basically, we have a two-thirds chance of holding global heating to 1.5°C if we keep future emissions under 400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. At current emission rates, we’ve got just <a href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2-budget.html">under five years</a> left before we blow through that limit. </p>
<p>As our <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/oecm/energy-pathways">new research</a> shows, getting to net zero isn’t going to be the same in each country. There are commonalities – halting new fossil fuel projects and funding renewables, storage and energy efficiency. But there will be significant differences in how manufacturing giants like China zero out emissions compared to India or Australia.</p>
<p>And then there’s the question of fairness. Some countries have emitted vastly more than others. If we divide up the remaining carbon budget while taking historic emissions into account, we find countries like America, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia have already gone past their fair carbon budgets. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, countries which have industrialised later like Mexico, China, Argentina, Turkey, India and Indonesia are sitting below their fair carbon budgets.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china windfarm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546129/original/file-20230904-25-nd26fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some things are universal – boost renewables like this windfarm in China and steadily cut fossil fuel use. But there are many pathways to net zero.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s new about this?</h2>
<p>The G20 account <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/g20-economies-are-pricing-more-carbon-emissions-but-stronger-globally-more-coherent-policy-action-is-needed-to-meet-climate-goals-says-oecd.htm#:%7E:text=G20%20economies%20account%20for%20around,of%20total%20G20%20GHG%20emissions.">for 80%</a> of the world’s emissions. If each of these countries ended their reliance on fossil fuels and other emissions sources, we’d be most of the way to tackling the climate crisis. </p>
<p>We took into account how much each country has emitted historically, from industrialisation to 2019, and population size. Then we devised a per capita carbon index, which gives developing countries with little historic responsibility for climate change a fair distribution of carbon from 2020 to 2050. We did this to show how every country can make this energy transition in a timeframe realistic to their circumstances.</p>
<p><iframe id="Fwkye" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Fwkye/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>India: minimal historic impact but rising fast</h2>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/24/india-overtakes-china-to-become-worlds-most-populous-country">most populous</a> country has historically been a very low emitter, producing just 25% of China’s emissions from 1750–2019. But in recent decades, it has <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/india">begun to emit more</a> and its future emissions might rise substantially. </p>
<p>India has relied heavily on coal power, but its renewable sector is growing exceptionally fast. It’s now the <a href="https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GSR-2023_Energy-Supply-Module.pdf">fourth largest market</a> for solar, biomass and wind power </p>
<p>Steelmaking is rapidly growing. If this industry relies on old coal technology, it will add to emissions and eat away at the global carbon budget. New build steel plants should turn to hydrogen or other green steelmaking techniques. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> not yet on track but positive trend</p>
<p><strong>Industry:</strong> not on track.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa-has-vast-gas-reserves-heres-how-to-stop-them-adding-to-climate-change-194473">Africa has vast gas reserves – here’s how to stop them adding to climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>China: giant of emissions, manufacturing – and renewables</h2>
<p>China produces over 30% of the world’s emissions with 18% of its population, making it the world’s biggest. </p>
<p>The North Asian nation’s cement, steel, chemical and aluminium industries rely heavily on coal, producing 60% of the global energy-related emissions from each of these sectors – vastly more than America’s 10%. </p>
<p>Cleaning up its enormous industrial sector through green steelmaking and other new techniques will be actually be harder than getting off coal power. </p>
<p>On the positive side, China has emerged as the world’s leading nation in solar and wind energy deployment and manufacturing. It’s <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/china-road-to-net-zero-reshape-the-country-and-the-world/">surging forward</a> on electric cars and long-distance rail.</p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> decarbonising slowly, not yet on track</p>
<p><strong>Industrial sector:</strong> well off track</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="china heavy industry" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546128/original/file-20230904-17-kma1kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s heavy industry will be hard to clean up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>America: gas, inefficient cars and a clean energy boom</h2>
<p>The United States is the world’s largest single emitter of carbon emissions in the power sector, both historically as well as per capita. </p>
<p>Fossil gas plays a major role for power and heat generation, while America’s cars and trucks are the most inefficient in the world. The nation has just 4% of global population but its vehicles emit almost 25% of the world’s emissions from road transport. </p>
<p>The nation’s building sector accounts for 15% of all global emissions from buildings, due to large, inefficiently built houses and heating systems.</p>
<p>These sectors – power, transport and buildings – still need urgent attention. But, thankfully, America’s much-vaunted Inflation Reduction Act <a href="https://www.iea.org/policies/16156-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022">has triggered</a> an enormous investment boom in energy efficiency and renewable energy. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> well on track to be largely decarbonised by 2040</p>
<p><strong>Transport and building sectors:</strong> not yet on track</p>
<h2>Australia: rich in renewables – and gas and coal</h2>
<p>Australia is one of the top five per capita emitters in the G20, both historically and today. Our relatively small population means we’re not one of the largest overall emitters. </p>
<p>Huge coal and gas reserves mean Australia has long profited from fossil fuel income. We’re the second largest coal exporter and <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/australias-lng-risk/">one of the top</a> liquefied natural gas exporters. </p>
<p>On the upside, Australia has some of the world’s best and largest solar and wind resources. We could play a leading role in the transition towards green steel and green hydrogen. At the rate things are going, we could decarbonise domestic energy supply in <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/news/energy-insider/2022-energy-insider/hydrogen-super-power">just over</a> a decade. </p>
<p><strong>Power sector:</strong> broadly on track </p>
<p><strong>Transport sector:</strong> not yet on track</p>
<h2>Fair is possible – and necessary</h2>
<p>This weekend’s G20 summit gives an opportunity to build political momentum and formulate plans for concrete action among high-emitting countries. </p>
<p>An agreement to fairly split up the remaining carbon budget is unlikely, however, given <a href="https://www.g20.org/en/media-resources/press-releases/july-2023/etwgm-concludes/">debate over</a> whether cutting carbon will damage economic development in developing countries at the recent G20 meeting of foreign ministers.</p>
<p>It might be hard. But it is possible. Many rich countries have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-gdp-decoupling#:%7E:text=A%20number%20of%20rich%20countries,use%20per%20capita%20from%201995.">already broken</a> the link between GDP growth and energy demand. Developing countries can decarbonise while continuing to grow. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-roundup-how-the-world-can-stick-to-its-carbon-budget-fairly-194876">COP27 roundup: how the world can stick to its carbon budget fairly</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sven Teske receives funding fromthe European Climate Foundation, 23 Rue de la Science, 1040 Brussels, Belgium (grant number 2101-61369).</span></em></p>Our carbon budget is shrinking fast. We crunched the data to find pathways for G20 nations to act fasterSven Teske, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2096902023-07-20T20:04:49Z2023-07-20T20:04:49ZMining the seabed for clean-tech minerals could destroy ecosystems. Will it get the green light?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538452/original/file-20230720-21-tkg1l4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crab on polymetallic nodules</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA Ocean Exploration</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A little-known organisation is meeting this week in a conference centre in Jamaica. The rules the <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/">International Seabed Authority</a> (ISA) are drafting could have immense impact. </p>
<p>That’s because this United Nations body has the power to permit – or deny – mining on the deep seabed, outside any nation’s exclusive economic zones. Boosters say the billions of tonnes of critical minerals like nickel, manganese, copper and cobalt lying in metal-dense nodules on the seabed could unlock faster decarbonisation and avoid supply shortages. </p>
<p>Developing Pacific nation Nauru has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/7/9/nauru-prepares-to-mine-deep-seas-in-big-climate-controversy">led the charge</a> to open up the seabed for mining, seeing it as a new source of income. (Ironically, Nauru itself was strip-mined for guano, leaving a moonscape and few resources.) </p>
<p>But researchers warn the mining could trash entire ecosystems, by ripping up the sea floor or covering creatures with sediment. Early indications from trial mining efforts suggest the process is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/14/deep-sea-mining-causes-huge-decreases-in-sealife-across-wide-region-says-study">worse than expected</a>, with long-lasting impact on sealife. </p>
<p>Almost 20 governments <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-joins-nearly-20-nations-calling-for-halt-to-deep-sea-mining-as-negotiators-meet-to-agree-rules-efbb32b5">are calling</a> for a moratorium or slowdown on mining. But China, Russia and South Korea <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/545da351-bd86-4145-9269-44857b89650e">are pushing</a> for mining to begin. </p>
<p>The ISA has already missed its July 9 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/07/gold-rush-deep-sea-devastation-seabed-oceans">deadline</a> to produce regulations governing seabed mining. That could mean we’re heading for a deep-sea free-for-all. </p>
<h2>Why mine the deep sea at all?</h2>
<p>Because no one owns it, and because parts of it are rich in easily accessible metals (once you get to the bottom, that is). Land-based mining usually involves processing vast volumes of rock, taking out the minerals you want and leaving the tailings behind. But on the seabed, things are different. </p>
<p>The main area prospectors are eyeing off is the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, an abyssal plain 4,000–5,000 metres deep east of Hawaii. Here, plate tectonics and underwater volcanoes have produced huge numbers of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0027-0">polymetallic nodules</a>, accretions of minerals about 10-15 centimetres wide. They grow glacially slowly, about one centimetre every million years. But there are a lot of them – an estimated 21 billion tonnes in this zone alone, according to the ISA. </p>
<p>By 2050, demand for nickel and cobalt to make electric vehicle batteries could grow by up to 500%, according to the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/extractiveindustries/brief/climate-smart-mining-minerals-for-climate-action#:%7E:text=Smart%20Mining%20Video-,Overview,demand%20for%20clean%20energy%20technologies.">World Bank</a>. That’s why companies like Nauru’s partner, The Metals Company, <a href="https://metals.co/nodules/">are investing</a> in this type of mining. </p>
<p>Seabed mining, they argue, is an environmentally better option than expanding land-based mining into more challenging locations, mining low-grade ore bodies and risking contaminating waterways. </p>
<p>Boosters say seabed mining in international waters avoids the risk of dominance by a few countries or suppliers. For instance, the Ukraine-Russia war has hit battery grade nickel availability, as Russia is the primary global supplier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rush-is-on-to-mine-the-deep-seabed-with-effects-on-ocean-life-that-arent-well-understood-139833">A rush is on to mine the deep seabed, with effects on ocean life that aren't well understood</a>
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<h2>But what about the environment?</h2>
<p>This is the sticking point. The seabed in question is a pristine environment. While fishing trawlers already tear up <a href="https://europe.oceana.org/our-work-responsible-fishing-dirty-fishing-bottom-trawling-images-2/#:%7E:text=The%20largest%20deep%2Dsea%20bottom,miles%20of%20seabed%20each%20day.">large areas</a> of seafloor to devastating effect, mining would open up even more of the seabed. </p>
<p>Opposition has come from many conservation organisations, civil society representatives, governments like Canada, Germany, Fiji and Papua New Guinea. They want a moratorium on seabed mining based on the precautionary principle – not acting until we know what impact it will have. They argue we lack the technology to monitor the seabed and knowledge of the ecosystems of the deep, meaning we cannot be certain seabed mining can proceed without causing serious and long lasting harm. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02290-5">Early research</a> shows this type of mining can be destructive. </p>
<h2>Should the ISA have the power to decide this?</h2>
<p>It took 25 years for the UN to negotiate the <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf">law of the sea treaty</a>. The treaty is clear about how we should protect and use the seabed, as part of the “common heritage of mankind”. The ISA was created to steward these commons, with the power to make rules in international waters. These cover two-thirds of the world’s oceans and 90% of known polymetallic nodule deposits. </p>
<p>The problem is many governments and organisations don’t think it’s fit for purpose. </p>
<p>The ISA is, like some other UN bodies, a complex bureaucracy and has been criticised for lacking transparency. Even though all 167 nations which signed the law of the sea treaty are automatically ISA members, critical decisions can be made with far fewer. </p>
<p>Applications to mine the seabed are approved or denied by the ISA’s council, which has 36 members. Council decisions stem from recommendations by a legal and technical commission, made up of 30 members appointed by the council. Dominated by lawyers and geologists, this commission, according to NGOs and governments, has <a href="https://savethehighseas.org/isa-tracker/2022/03/29/day-6-a-clear-demonstration-that-the-isa-is-not-fit-for-purpose/">ignored comments</a> and critique. Only a handful of the members have environmental expertise. </p>
<p>The council is also geared towards mineral extraction, with <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/organs/the-council/">many members</a> elected on the basis they already export minerals like nickel and manganese, have invested heavily in seabed mining technology, and already use significant volumes of these minerals. </p>
<p>The ISA’s secretary general Michael Lodge was earlier this year <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/21/row-erupts-over-deep-sea-mining-as-world-races-to-finalise-vital-regulations">criticised</a> by the German government for allegedly pushing to permit mining, an accusation Lodge rejected. </p>
<h2>So is it a done deal?</h2>
<p>Ideally, the authority would have more time to develop rigorous rules based on good environmental assessments. </p>
<p>But time is up. Two years ago, Nauru <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/07/gold-rush-deep-sea-devastation-seabed-oceans">triggered a clause</a> giving the ISA two years to produce a mining code and rules – a feat it had not previously managed. Those two years were up on July 9th and the code isn’t out. That means it’s now legally possible to lodge mining applications. </p>
<p>So because of the delays, we may be heading for a future where seabed mining becomes legal by default – without rules to govern it at all. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/deep-seabed-mining-plans-pit-renewable-energy-demand-against-ocean-life-in-a-largely-unexplored-frontier-193273">Deep seabed mining plans pit renewable energy demand against ocean life in a largely unexplored frontier</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claudio Bozzi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deep sea metallic nodules could help us shift to clean energy. But we don’t know how much damage it will do to ecosystemsClaudio Bozzi, Lecturer in Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095842023-07-12T05:58:23Z2023-07-12T05:58:23ZDutton wants Australia to join the “nuclear renaissance” – but this dream has failed before<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536986/original/file-20230712-15-jfvglj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C33%2C7315%2C3382&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-must-join-nuclear-renaissance-dutton-20230706-p5dmap">called for</a> Australia to join what he dubbed the “international nuclear energy renaissance”. </p>
<p>The same phrase was used <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/australia-and-the-nuclear-renaissance/3343652">20 years ago</a> to describe plans for a massive expansion of nuclear. New <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/advanced-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx">Generation III</a> plants would be safer and more efficient than the Generation II plants built in the 1970s and 1980s. But the <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ac80b701-bdfc-48cf-ac4c-00e60e1246a0/weo2009.pdf">supposed renaissance</a> delivered only a trickle of new reactors – barely enough to replace retiring plants.</p>
<p>If there was ever going to be a nuclear renaissance, it was then. Back then, solar and wind were still expensive and batteries able to power cars or store power for the grid were in their infancy. </p>
<p>Even if these new smaller, modular reactors can overcome the massive cost blowouts which inevitably dog large plants, it’s too late for nuclear in Australia. As a new report <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/11/nuclear-power-too-expensive-and-slow-to-be-part-of-australias-plans-to-reach-net-zero-study-finds">points out</a>, nuclear would be wildly uncompetitive, costing far more per megawatt hour (MWh) than it does to take energy from sun or wind. </p>
<h2>The nuclear renaissance that wasn’t</h2>
<p>Early in the 21st century, the outlook for nuclear energy seemed more promising than it had in years. As evidence on the dangers of global heating mounted, it became clear that the expansion of coal-fired power in the 1990s – especially <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/fading-fast-in-the-us-and-europe-coal-still-reigns-in-asia">in Asia</a> – had been a mistake. </p>
<p>And despite the prevalence of slogans such as ‘Solar not Nuclear’, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices">cost of solar</a> and wind energy was then too high to make fully renewable systems a reality. </p>
<p>The rise of Generation III and III+ designs promised to eliminate or at least greatly reduce the risk of accidents like those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. </p>
<p>The time seemed right for a nuclear renaissance – especially in the United States. Between 2007 and 2009, 13 companies applied for construction and operating licenses to build 31 new nuclear power reactors. But all but two of these proposals stayed on paper.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-nuclear-power-secure-a-path-to-net-zero-180451">Can nuclear power secure a path to net zero?</a>
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<p>The first, in Georgia, is expected to be completed this year after running way behind schedule and way over budget. The other project in South Carolina <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/climate/nuclear-power-project-canceled-in-south-carolina.html">was abandoned</a> in 2017 after billions of dollars had already been poured into it. The same disastrous cost and time blowouts have hit new reactors in France (Flamanville, 10 years <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Further-delay-to-Flamanville-EPR-start-up">behind schedule</a>), Finland (Olkiluoto, which opened this year after a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">14 year delay</a>) and the UK (Hinkley Point C, still under construction with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/20/hinkley-point-c-nuclear-power-station-edf-delayed-covid-costs-rise">cost and time blowouts</a>).</p>
<p>China has built a trickle of new nuclear plants, commissioning three or four a year over the last decade. China currently has about 50 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power capacity. This pales into insignificance compared to the nation’s extraordinary expansion of solar, with 95-120 gigawatts of additional capacity expected this year alone. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Olkiluoto nuclear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536969/original/file-20230712-19-398xez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Finland’s new Unit 3 reactor only came online this year as part of its Olkiluoto plant after a major delay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Nuclear falls short on cost, not politics</h2>
<p>What went wrong for nuclear? Despite the claims of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/only-nuclear-energy-can-save-the-planet-11547225861">some nuclear advocates</a>, the renaissance in the 2000s did not fall short because of political resistance. Far from it – the renaissance had broad <a href="https://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2028092,00.html">political support</a> in key markets.</p>
<p>And, unlike in the 1970s where intense anti-nuclear sentiment was tied to fears of nuclear war, environmentalists in the 2000s had refocused on the need to stop burning carbon-based fuels. Anti-nuclear campaigns and protest marches were almost non-existent. </p>
<p>What stopped the nuclear noughties was a bigger problem: economics. Governments looking at nuclear saw the cost and time over-runs and decided it wasn’t worth it. </p>
<p>As megaproject expert Bent Flyvbjerg <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.7404">has shown</a>, cost overruns like these are typical. First of a kind nuclear plants offer an extreme example of the problem. To date, no Generation III or III+ design has been produced at scales large enough to iron out the inevitable early problems.</p>
<p>At the same time, other energy sources were growing in importance. The United States <a href="https://www.strausscenter.org/energy-and-security-project/the-u-s-shale-revolution/">found ways</a> of tapping its unconventional shale gas reserves. </p>
<p>All the while, solar and wind were getting cheaper and cheaper, driven by generous subsidies from European governments such as Germany and manufacturing economies of scale in China. Solar and wind production ramped up exponentially, growing around 30% a year every year since the beginning of the century.</p>
<p>In Australia, the writing was on the wall by 2007, when an <a href="https://www.sensiblepolicy.com/download/2006/2006_Umpner_report.pdf">inquiry found</a> new nuclear power would struggle to compete with either coal or renewables. A string of subsequent inquiries have come to precisely the same conclusion.</p>
<h2>Could it be different this time?</h2>
<p>To make nuclear viable these days, advocates believe, means making it safe, cheap and easy to build. No more megaprojects. Instead, build small reactors en masse on factory production lines, ship them to where they are needed and install them in numbers matching the needs of the area. </p>
<p>Advocates hope the efficiency of factory production will offset the lower efficiency associated with smaller capacity. Ironically, off-site mass production and modular installation is the basis of the success of solar and wind. </p>
<p>To date, the most promising reactor design is <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/products/voygr-smr-plants">NuScale’s VOYGR</a>. It has yet to be produced and the US company has no firm orders. It does have preliminary agreements to build six reactors in Utah by 2030 and another four in Romania. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536985/original/file-20230712-23-1h7d7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar and wind are modular systems, built in factories. So you can add more capacity easily.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>If all are built, that’s still less than the capacity of a single large Gen III plant. More strikingly, it’s about the same as the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/executive-summary">new solar capacity</a> installed every single day (~710 MW) this year around the world.</p>
<p>Even with US government subsidies, NuScale estimates its power would cost A$132 per MWh. In Australia, average wholesale prices in the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics">first quarter</a> of 2023 ranged from $64 per MWh in Victoria to 114 per MWh in Queensland. </p>
<p>So why, then, is Australia’s opposition still talking about new nuclear? Dutton <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/07/peter-dutton-ramps-up-nuclear-power-push-and-claims-labor-down-renewable-rabbit-hole">claims</a> Australia’s future nuclear submarines to be built under the AUKUS deal are “essentially floating SMRs”. This is a red herring – while submarine reactors are small, they are not modular. </p>
<p>The simplest answer is political gain. Announcements like this yield political benefits at low cost. </p>
<p>The US, UK and France have decades of experience in nuclear power, even if failures outnumber successes. So yes, there is a slim chance the latest “nuclear renaissance” will succeed in these countries. </p>
<p>But in Australia, promises to create a nuclear power industry from scratch based on as yet unproven technologies and in competition with cheap renewables is simply delusional.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-opposition-wants-a-mature-discussion-about-nuclear-energy-start-with-a-carbon-price-without-that-nuclear-is-wildly-uncompetitive-184471">If the opposition wants a mature discussion about nuclear energy, start with a carbon price. Without that, nuclear is wildly uncompetitive</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. He has given evidence to Royal Commissions and Parliamentary inquiries into nuclear power over the past decade.</span></em></p>20 years ago, solar and wind were expensive enough to make nuclear seem like an option for Australia. With cheap renewables a reality, there’s simply no point to domestic nuclear.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2085612023-07-05T12:24:00Z2023-07-05T12:24:00Z‘Global China’ is a big part of Latin America’s renewable energy boom, but homegrown industries and ‘frugal innovation’ are key<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534468/original/file-20230627-30373-rvj0lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C51%2C8549%2C5691&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lithium, essential for EV batteries, could be South America's white gold.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChileLithium/64ba9a1bc61144b6ae28b5668dd6d07a/photo">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The story of renewable energy’s rapid rise in Latin America often focuses on Chinese influence, and for good reason. China’s government, banks and companies have propelled the continent’s energy transition, with about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Z58qGx2rP4">90% of all wind and solar technologies</a> installed there produced by Chinese companies. China’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/organizations/state-grid-corporation-of-china">State Grid</a> now controls <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/its-electric-chinas-power-play-latin-america">over half of Chile’s</a> regulated energy distribution, enough to raise concerns in the Chilean government. </p>
<p>China has also become a major investor in Latin America’s critical minerals sector, a treasure trove of <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/23/1/20/111308/The-Security-Sustainability-Nexus-Lithium">lithium</a>, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/11/how-indonesia-used-chinese-industrial-investments-to-turn-nickel-into-new-gold-pub-89500">nickel</a>, <a href="https://eba.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DDB_2016_9_Malm_webb.pdf">cobalt</a> and <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501714597/rare-earth-frontiers/#bookTabs=1">rare earth elements</a> that are crucial for developing electric vehicles, wind turbines and defense technologies.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Chinese company Tianqi Lithium purchased a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">23% share</a> in one of Chile’s largest lithium producers, Sociedad Química y Minera. More recently, in 2022, Ganfeng Lithium bought a major evaporative lithium project in Argentina for <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/04/20/china-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-economic-bulletin-2023-edition/">US$962 million</a>. In April 2023, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed around 20 agreements to <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-the-lula-xi-partnership-means-for-the-world/">strengthen their countries’ already close relationship</a>, including in the areas of trade, climate change and the energy transition.</p>
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<img alt="Juan Carlos Jobet and Carolina Schmidt, wearing matching fleece jackets, walk on either side Xie Zhenhua, who is wearing in a suit and tie, along a row of solar panels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534909/original/file-20230629-25-zguqfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">China’s interest in South America’s energy resources has been growing for years. In 2019, China’s special representative for climate change, Xie Zhenhua, met with Chile’s then-ministers of energy and environment, Juan Carlos Jobet and Carolina Schmidt, in Chile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chilean-energy-minister-juan-carlos-jobet-chinas-special-news-photo/1162986090?adppopup=true">Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>China’s growing influence over global clean energy supply chains and its leverage over countries’ energy systems have <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri">raised international concerns</a>. But the relationship between China and Latin America is also increasingly complicated as Latin American countries try to secure their resources and their own clean energy futures.</p>
<p>Alongside international investments, Latin American countries are fostering energy innovation cultures that are homegrown, dynamic, creative, often grassroots and frequently overlooked. These range from sophisticated innovations with high-tech materials to a phenomenon known as “frugal innovation.” </p>
<h2>Chile looks to the future</h2>
<p>Chile is an example of how Latin America is embracing renewable energy while trying to plan a more self-reliant future.</p>
<p>New geothermal, solar and <a href="https://www.evwind.es/2023/02/13/repsol-and-ibereolica-renovables-start-producing-electricity-at-the-atacama-wind-farm-chile/90178">wind power</a> projects – some built with Chinese backing, <a href="https://www.eulaif.eu/en/news/first-concentrated-solar-power-plant-latin-america-built-support-eu-laif-kfw-and-corfo">but not all</a> – have pushed Chile far past its 2025 renewable energy goal. <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/chile">About one-third</a> of the country is now powered by clean energy.</p>
<p>But the big prize, and a large part of China’s interest, lies buried in Chile’s Atacama Desert, home to the world’s <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/all-eyes-chile-amid-global-scramble-lithium">largest lithium reserves</a>. Lithium, a silvery-white metal, is essential for producing lithium ion batteries that power most electric vehicles and utility-scale energy storage. Countries around the world have been scrambling to secure lithium sources, and the Chilean government is determined to keep control over its reserves, currently about <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-lithium.pdf">one-half of the planet’s known supply</a> .</p>
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<img alt="A worker carries a large hose along the edge of a turquoise lithium pond. The worker is wearing a facemask against the dust and reflective gear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534465/original/file-20230627-25-yw2py4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Brine slowly turns into lithium at the Albemarle lithium mine in Chile’s Atacama Desert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChileLithium/7ec3d5fa4a5c4a98a60138eda15146d9/photo">AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd</a></span>
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<p>In April 2023, Chile’s president announced a <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/chiles-national-lithium-strategy-new-beginning">national lithium strategy</a> to ensure that the state holds partial ownership of some future lithium developments. The move, which has yet to be approved, has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/26/chile-lithium-batteries-mining-environment-climate-energy-transition/">drawn complaints</a> that it could slow production. </p>
<p>However, the government aims to <a href="https://www.investchile.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/brochure-litio-.pdf">increase profits from lithium production</a> while strengthening environmental safeguards and sharing more wealth with the country’s citizens, including local communities impacted by lithium projects. Latin America has seen its resources <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/10/05/NA100517-Missed-Opportunities-The-Economic-History-of-Latin-America">sold out from under it</a> before, and Chile doesn’t intend to lose out on its natural value this time.</p>
<h2>Learning from foreign investors</h2>
<p>Developing its own renewable energy industry has been a priority in Chile for well over a decade, but it’s been a rough road at times.</p>
<p>In 2009, the government began establishing national and international centers of excellence – <a href="https://anid.cl/centros-e-investigacion-asociativa/centros-de-excelencia-internacional/">Centros de Excelencia Internacional</a> – for research in strategic fields such as solar energy, geothermal energy and climate resilience. It invited and co-financed foreign research institutes, such as Europe’s influential <a href="https://www.fraunhofer.de/en.html">Fraunhofer institute</a> and France’s <a href="https://www.engie.com/en/innovation-transition-energetique/centres-de-recherche/crigen">ENGIELab</a>, to establish branches in Chile and conduct applied research. The latest is a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/Corfo-Session_7_Chilean-Clean_Technologies_Institute.pdf">center for the production of lithium using solar energy</a>.</p>
<p>The government expected that the centers would work with local businesses and research centers, transferring knowledge to feed a local innovation ecosystem. However, reality hasn’t yet matched the expectations. The foreign institutions brought their own trained personnel. And except for the recently established institute for lithium, officials tell us that low financing has been a major problem.</p>
<h2>Chile’s startup incubator and frugal innovation</h2>
<p>While big projects get the headlines, more is going on under the radar.</p>
<p>Chile is home to one of the largest public incubators and seed accelerators in Latin America, <a href="https://startupchile.org/">StartUp Chile</a>. It has helped several local startups that offer important innovations in food, energy, social media, biotech and other sectors.</p>
<p>Often in South America, this kind of innovation is born and developed in a resource-scarce context and under technological, financial and material constraints. This “frugal innovation” emphasizes sustainability with substantially lower costs.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wYcRSGDB_d4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Reborn Electric Motors converts old fossil fuel buses into fully electric versions. They are used in urban areas and also by the mining industry.</span></figcaption>
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<p>For example, the independent Chilean startup <a href="https://rebornelectric.cl/">Reborn Electric Motors</a> has developed a business converting old diesel bus fleets into fully electric buses. Reborn was founded in 2016 when the national electromobility market in Chile was in its early stages, before China’s BYD ramped up electric bus use in local cities. </p>
<p>Reborn’s retrofitted buses are both technologically advanced and significantly cheaper than their Chinese counterparts. While BYD’s new electric bus costs roughly US$320,000, a retrofitted equivalent from Reborn costs roughly half, around $170,000. The company has also secured funding to develop a prototype for <a href="https://rebornelectric.cl/hydra-consortium-of-which-reborn-electric-motors-is-a-part-begins-testing-of-the-green-hydrogen-prototype-for-mining-vehicles/">running mining vehicles on green hydrogen</a>.</p>
<p>Bolivia’s “tiny supercheap EV” developed by homegrown startup <a href="https://tuquantum.com/">Industrias Quantum Motors</a> is another example of frugal innovation in the electric vehicles space. The startup aspires to bring electric mobility widely to the Latin American population. It offers the tiniest EV car possible, one that can be plugged into a standard wall socket. The car costs around $6,000 and has a range of approximately 34 miles (55 kilometers) per charge.</p>
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<img alt="A tiny car big enough for one person, with no passenger seats, drives down a street of brick buildings. Quantum Motors, its maker, is based in Bolivia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534466/original/file-20230627-34413-fbnmsn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Quantum Motors, a startup in Bolivia, launched its affordable mini-vehicles in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BoliviaElectricCars/27f7b88da1d147408aca8fca231b4599/photo">AP Photo/Juan Karita</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.phineal.com/en/home_en/">Phineal</a> is another promising Chilean company that offers clean energy solutions, focusing on solar energy projects. Its projects include solar systems installation, electromobility technology and technology using blockchain to improve renewable energy management in Latin America. Many of these are highly sophisticated and technologically advanced projects that have found markets overseas, including in Germany.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead to green hydrogen</h2>
<p>Chile is also diving into another cutting-edge area of clean energy. Using its abundant solar and wind power to <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/country-case-chile-bet-on-green-hydrogen-Bartlett">produce green hydrogen</a> for export as a fossil fuel replacement has become a government priority.</p>
<p>The government is developing a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/how-chile-is-becoming-a-leader-in-renewable-energy/">public-private partnership</a> of an unprecedented scale in Chile for hydrogen production and has committed to cover 30% of an expected <a href="https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/national_green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf">$193 million public and private investment</a>, funded in part by its lithium and copper production. Some questions surround the partnership, including Chile’s lack of experience administering such a large project and concerns about the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/country-case-chile-bet-on-green-hydrogen-Bartlett">environmental impact</a>. The government claims Chile’s green energy production could <a href="https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/national_green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf">eventually rival its mining industry</a>.</p>
<p>With plentiful hydropower and sunshine, Latin America already meets a <a href="https://www.mapfreglobalrisks.com/gerencia-riesgos-seguros/articulos/energias-renovables-tendencias-en-latinoamerica/">quarter of its energy demand</a> with renewables – nearly twice the global average. Chile and its neighbors envision those numbers only rising.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zdenka Myslikova is affiliated with the Climate Policy Lab in The Fletcher School at Tufts University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathaniel Dolton-Thornton is affiliated with the Climate Policy Lab in The Fletcher School at Tufts University.</span></em></p>China is a major investor in Latin America’s renewable energy and critical minerals like lithium, but countries like Chile are also taking steps to secure their own clean energy future.Zdenka Myslikova, Postdoctoral Scholar in Clean Energy Innovation, Tufts UniversityNathaniel Dolton-Thornton, Assistant Researcher in Climate Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.