tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/crime-prevention-17561/articlesCrime prevention – The Conversation2023-03-02T13:23:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2000412023-03-02T13:23:59Z2023-03-02T13:23:59ZUnderstanding mass incarceration in the US is the first step to reducing a swollen prison population<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513014/original/file-20230301-30-1c9olo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=238%2C157%2C2573%2C1823&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People incarcerated at a county jail in North Dakota gather together. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/174524045/photo/oil-boom-shifts-the-landscape-of-rural-north-dakota.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=FaIkb2CLNjUOxOoWX521IPpa5BfsgYTnAMVCQrDFXnI=">Andrew Burton/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/16/americas-incarceration-rate-lowest-since-1995/">The incarceration rate</a> in the United States fell in 2021 to its lowest levels since 1995 – but the U.S. continues to imprison a higher percentage of its population than almost every <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/highest-to-lowest/prison-population-total?field_region_taxonomy_tid=All">other country</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/correctional-populations-united-states-2021-statistical-tables">The U.S. incarcerates</a> 530 people for every 100,000 in its population, making it one of the world’s biggest jailers – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-begins-transfers-mega-prison-amid-gang-crackdown-2023-02-24/">just below El Salvador</a>, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/262962/countries-with-the-most-prisoners-per-100-000-inhabitants/">Rwanda and Turkmenistan.</a> </p>
<p>The U.S. actually had the greatest percentage of its population imprisoned until 2019. This followed steady growth in prison and jail populations in the 1970s, after a wave of <a href="https://www.owu.edu/news-media/from-our-perspective/tough-questions-for-tough-on-crime-policies/">“tough on crime” laws</a> and policies swept the nation. </p>
<p>While there has been a <a href="https://newjimcrow.com/,">growing recognition</a> of the need to reduce <a href="https://joebiden.com/justice/#,%20https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2015/07/15/president-obama-our-criminal-justice-system-isnt-smart-it-should-be">mass incarceration</a>, experts <a href="https://newjimcrow.com/">do not</a> agree on <a href="https://www.city-journal.org/rafael-mangual-discusses-new-book-criminal-in-justice">what caused the ballooning prison population</a> or the best path to reducing it.</p>
<p>As a former prosecutor and a researcher who studies the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VxvW--wAAAAJ&hl=en">criminal justice system</a>, I have found that understanding how the U.S. incarceration rate grew over the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Mass-Incarceration-Nation-Jeffrey-Bellin/dp/1009267558/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0">last few decades</a> is the key to understanding its root causes – and what it will take to return to lower rates. </p>
<p>As I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/law/criminal-law/mass-incarceration-nation-how-united-states-became-addicted-prisons-and-jails-and-how-it-can-recover?format=PB&isbn=9781009267557">show in my new book</a>, “Mass Incarceration Nation, How the United States Became Addicted to Prisons and Jails and How It Can Recover,” people tend to talk past one another when they discuss crime and punishment in the U.S. I think the public debate can improve if people develop a better understanding of how mass incarceration arose – and its tenuous connection to crime. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person wearing a bright orange outfit is seen walking into gates towards a beige building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513012/original/file-20230301-2409-xqwaw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">While the U.S. prison population has dipped recently, the rate remains higher than those of most countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/539898510/photo/usa-crime-overcrowding-of-california-prison-system.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=iXtRdZscYW5liMp5Li6ez7mWwHU94JASFEYl2rO7Lus=">Ted Soqui/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A growing prison population</h2>
<p>The growth in mass incarceration began with a crime spike. Homicides, which averaged around <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_20/sr20_006acc.pdf">5,000 per year in the 1960s</a>, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/187592/death-rate-from-homicide-in-the-us-since-1950/">shot up in the 1970s,</a> reaching over 24,000 in 1991. </p>
<p>The crime spike sparked a bipartisan wave of punitive laws, the hiring of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/10/03/nyregion/dinkins-on-crime-dinkins-proposes-record-expansion-of-police-forces.html">thousands of police officers</a> and a <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/rethinking-prison-as-a-deterrent-to-future-crime/">“tough on crime” mindset</a> that permeated every aspect of American criminal law. The system became more punitive, generating longer sentences, especially for repeat and violent offenses, as I show in my book. </p>
<p>Over time, this led to today’s <a href="https://nicic.gov/projects/aging-prison">aging prison population</a> and many people being held long past the time they would have been released in other countries and at other times <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2018/02/20/aging-prison-populations-drive-up-costs">in this country’s history</a>. </p>
<p>The number of people 55 or older in state and federal prisons increased 280% from 1999 to 2016, <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2018/02/20/aging-prison-populations-drive-up-costs">according to Pew research.</a> </p>
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<span class="caption">Men incarcerated in Washington, D.C., participate in a computer science program in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1243186427/photo/students-from-the-brave-behind-bars-program-an-introductory-computer-science-program-for.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=lVKEnRJ9FBQ5GZSwwxMcHCV3HaKvXpvDudkR9vMMDWw=">Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Different kinds of crime</h2>
<p>But longer sentences are only one factor in America’s supersized incarceration rates. </p>
<p>There has also been a <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/02/drug-arrests-stayed-high-even-as-imprisonment-fell-from-2009-to-2019">dramatic expansion of the kinds of crimes</a> for which U.S. courts imprison people. </p>
<p>After the 1970s, more and more people went to prison for drug crimes and other offenses that rarely used to lead to prison time. </p>
<p>Serious violent crime, meanwhile, went <a href="https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf">back down in the 1990s</a>. The crimes – like armed robbery and murder – that had sparked the march toward mass incarceration plummeted. </p>
<p>But prison populations didn’t drop. </p>
<p>As a prosecutor in Washington, D.C. in the early 2000s, I saw this change firsthand. Our caseloads were increasingly dominated by drug sales, drug possession and gun possession cases – cases which, not coincidentally, are typically the easiest to detect and prove. These changes were happening on a national level.</p>
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<p>The number of people incarcerated in state prisons for homicide increased by over 300% between 1980 and 2010, reflecting the temporary spike in homicides and longer sentences for those convicted of that offense. </p>
<p>But the scale of the increases for other offenses, like drug crimes, is even larger – rising 1,147% over this time frame.</p>
<h2>Speaking the same language</h2>
<p>While prison populations are finally starting to go down, progress is slow. At the current rate, it will take decades to reach the low incarceration rates the U.S. had for most of its history. </p>
<p>This dip is partially <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/impact-covid-19-state-and-federal-prisons-march-2020-february-2021">because of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>, which prompted some states to release prisoners to avoid overcrowding and health risks. It is not clear that these recent reductions in the incarcerated population will continue. </p>
<p>I think that substantially reducing prison and jail populations will require better understanding of the link between incarceration and crime. It is not simply the case that incarceration goes up because people commit crime; instead, the story is much more complicated. That is because we use incarceration for two purposes: to obtain justice on behalf of victims and to try to change people’s behavior. </p>
<p>This distinction results in two kinds of cases flowing into this nation’s criminal courts.</p>
<p>First, there are cases that involve the most serious harm to individuals, like crimes of sexual violence and murder. Second, there are cases like drug offenses and weapons possession, which are not typically about obtaining justice for victims but are supposed to further policy goals like preventing drug use.</p>
<p>Changes in how we treat both kinds of cases contributed to the nation’s sky-high incarceration rate. American mass incarceration is a result of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/12/06/u-s-public-divided-over-whether-people-convicted-of-crimes-spend-too-much-or-too-little-time-in-prison/">increasing sentence lengths</a> for people who commit serious violent crimes. But it is also a product of a stunning expansion of the system’s reach in the form of more and more crimes leading to prison and jail. </p>
<p>Substantial progress at reducing the incarcerated population will require reversing both trends. First, returning sentence lengths for all offenses, including serious violent crime, to their historical norms. And second, resisting this country’s growing habit of relying on incarceration as a tool for achieving policy goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Bellin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Experts still disagree about why the US prison population has grown so much over the last few decades. But crime is only one part of the problem.Jeffrey Bellin, Mills E. Godwin, Jr., Professor of Law, William & Mary Law SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1912662022-10-24T13:17:41Z2022-10-24T13:17:41ZArtificial intelligence is used for predictive policing in the US and UK – South Africa should embrace it, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486478/original/file-20220926-14-5pa015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Predictive policing may be a useful addition to traditional policing in contexts like South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fani Mahuntsi/Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 2002 movie Minority Report (based on a <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/581125.The_Minority_Report">short story</a> by Philip K Dick), director Steven Spielberg imagined a future in which three psychics can “see” murders before they happen. Their clairvoyance allows Tom Cruise and his “Precrime” police force to avert nearly all potential homicides.</p>
<p>Twenty years on, in the real world, scientists and law enforcement agencies are using data mining and machine learning to mimic those psychics. Such “<a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/can-predictive-policing-prevent-crime-it-happens">predictive policing</a>”, as it is called, is based on the fact that many crimes – and criminals – have <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203118214-13/crime-pattern-theory-paul-brantingham-patricia-brantingham">detectable patterns</a>.</p>
<p>Predictive policing has enjoyed some successes. In a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01900692.2019.1575664">case study</a> in the US, one police department was able to reduce gun incidents by 47% over the typically gun-happy New Year’s Eve. <a href="https://www.ironsidegroup.com/case-study/predictive-policing-success-manchester-police-department/">Manchester police</a> in the UK were similarly able to predict and reduce robberies, burglaries and thefts from motor vehicles by double digits in the first 10 weeks of rolling out predictive measures.</p>
<p>Predictive policing has improved in leaps and bounds. <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-642-40994-3_33.pdf">In the past</a>, humans had to manually pore over crime reports or filter through national crime databases. Now, in the age of <a href="https://www.igi-global.com/book/data-mining-trends-applications-criminal/146986">big data, data mining</a> and powerful computers, that process can be automated. </p>
<p>But merely finding information is not enough to deter crime. The data needs to be analysed to detect underlying patterns and relationships. Scientists deploy algorithms and mathematical models such as machine learning, which imitates the way humans learn, to extract useful information and insights from existing data. </p>
<p>Recently, we <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3488933.3488973">turned to</a> a mathematical method conceived in the 18th century to refine our approach. By tweaking an existing algorithm based on this method, we significantly improved its crime prediction rates.</p>
<p>This finding holds promise for applying predictive policing in under-resourced contexts like South Africa. This could help reduce crime levels – some of the highest in the world and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-06-03-crime-crisis-continues-in-first-quarter-of-2022-with-women-and-children-worst-affected">rising</a>. It’s a situation the country’s police force seems <a href="https://africacheck.org/infofinder/explore-facts/how-many-people-does-one-police-officer-serve-south-africa">ill-equipped</a> to curb.</p>
<h2>Marrying two different approaches</h2>
<p>Thomas Bayes was a British mathematician. His famed <a href="https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/bayes-theorem.html">Bayes’ theorem</a> essentially describes the probability of an event occurring based on some prior knowledge of conditions that may be related to that event. Today, Bayesian analysis is commonplace in fields as diverse as artificial intelligence, astrophysics, finance, gambling and weather forecasting. We fine-tuned the Naïve Bayes algorithm and <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3488933.3488973">put it to the test</a> as a crime predictor. </p>
<p>Bayesian analysis can use probability statements to answer research questions about unknown parameters of statistical models. For example, what is the probability that a suspect accused of a crime is guilty? But going deeper – like calculating how poker cards may unfold, or how humans (especially humans with criminal intent) will act – requires increasingly sophisticated technologies and algorithms. </p>
<p><a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3488933.3488973">Our research</a> built on the Naïve Bayes algorithm or classifier, a popular supervised machine learning algorithm, for <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3488933.3488973">crime prediction</a>. </p>
<p>Naïve Bayes starts on the premise that features – the variables that serve as input – are conditionally independent, meaning that the presence of one feature does not affect the others.</p>
<p>We fine-tuned the Naïve Bayes algorithm by marrying it with another algorithm known as <a href="https://machinelearningmastery.com/rfe-feature-selection-in-python/">Recursive Feature Elimination</a>. This tool assists in selecting the more significant features in a dataset and removing the weaker ones, with the objective of improving the results.</p>
<p>We then applied our finessed algorithm to a popular experimental dataset extracted from the Chicago Police Department’s <a href="https://home.chicagopolice.org/services/clearmap-application/">CLEAR</a> (Citizen Law Enforcement Analysis and Reporting) system, which has been used to predict and reduce crime in that American city. That dataset has been applied globally because of the rich data it contains: it provides incident-level crime data, registered offenders, community concerns, and locations of police stations in the city.</p>
<p>We compared the results of our enhanced Naïve Bayes against that of the original Naïve Bayes, as well as against other predictive algorithms such as Random Forests and Extremely Randomized Trees (algorithms we have <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/fullHtml/10.1145/3488933.3488972">also worked</a> on for crime prediction). We found that we could improve on the predictions of the Naïve Bayes by about 30%, and could either match or improve on the predictions of the other algorithms.</p>
<h2>Data and bias</h2>
<p>While our model holds promise, there’s one element that’s sorely lacking in applying it to South African contexts: data. As the Chicago CLEAR system illustrates, predictive models work best when you have lots of relevant data to work with. But South Africa’s police force has historically been very tight-fisted with its data, perhaps due to confidentiality issues. I ran into this problem in my <a href="https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/25319">doctoral research</a> on detecting and mapping crime series.</p>
<p>This is slowly shifting. We are currently running a small case study in Bellville, a suburb about 20km from Cape Town’s central business district and the area in which our university is located, using the <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/slwessels/crime-statistics-for-south-africa">South African Police Service data</a> for predictive policing.</p>
<p>None of this is to suggest that predictive policing alone will solve South Africa’s crime problem. Predictive algorithms and policing are not without their flaws. Even the psychics in Minority Report, it turned out, were not error-free. Fears that these algorithms may simply reinforce racial biases, for instance, have been raised both in <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-08-02-sa-police-may-be-jumping-the-gun-by-implementing-new-crimefighting-technologies/">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/can-predictive-policing-prevent-crime-it-happens">elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>But we believe that, with continuous technological improvement, predictive policing could play an important role in bolstering the police’s responsiveness and may be a small step towards improving public confidence in the police.</p>
<p><em>Dr Olasupo Ajayi of the Department of Computer Science at the University of the Western Cape and Mr Sphamandla May, a master’s student in the department, co-authored this article and the research it’s based on.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omowunmi Isafiade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Predictive policing has improved in leaps and bounds and become increasingly automated thanks to big data, data mining and powerful computers.Omowunmi Isafiade, Senior Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832352022-06-02T14:17:00Z2022-06-02T14:17:00ZNigerian property crime could be reduced if neighbourhoods were better designed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464514/original/file-20220520-24-5xelh5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some physical developments contribute to crime in Nigeria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/detached-three-bedroom-apartments-are-pictured-at-haggai-news-photo/151044248?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria has a very high crime rate. The Global Peace Index ranked it the world’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/273160/countries-with-the-least-peace-worldwide/">17th least peaceful state</a>. Discussion of crime in Nigeria tends to focus on insurgency, terrorism and kidnapping, but other types of crime are thriving too.</p>
<p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics, <a href="https://www.proshareng.com/news/Frauds---Scandals/134,663-Crime-Cases-Were-Reported-in-201/40508">134,663</a> cases of offences were reported in 2017. Offences against property make up the <a href="https://www.proshareng.com/news/Frauds---Scandals/134,663-Crime-Cases-Were-Reported-in-201/40508">highest number of cases reported</a>. As of March 2022, Nigerians reported <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200186/levels-of-worry-related-to-different-crimes-in-nigeria/">they worried most</a> about robbery, theft and break-ins. The level of concern stood at 66.04 points, on a scale from 0 to 100 (where 100 represents the highest concern).</p>
<p>Governments can respond to crime in <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-13-8215-4?noAccess=true">various ways</a>, like making and enforcing laws and addressing the root causes of crime. Another avenue to explore is crime prevention through spatial design.</p>
<h2>Built environment influences crime</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/7/3056">Research</a> has shown that features of the built environment influence crime. </p>
<p>Physical developments and locations can contribute to crime through flawed planning or structural design. It can also be lack of maintenance, access control, territorial reinforcement and surveillance. The plan and design of the built environment should ideally form part of a broader approach to crime prevention and community policing. This is known as “Crime Prevention through Environmental Design”.</p>
<p>I conducted a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320456478_Crime_Risk_Interpretation_in_Nigerian_Built_Environment_The_case_of_Minna_Niger_State">study</a> in Minna, Niger State, north central Nigeria, on how street layout, the neighbourhood composition, the routine activities, and resident’s lifestyle influence the risks of crime. Respondents answered questions on experience of crime in the 12 months prior to the survey. </p>
<p>The responses showed that experiences and perceptions of crime varied significantly across neighbourhoods. Socio-economic, environmental design and land use variables accounted for this variation. The findings also emphasised the importance of manipulation of the physical, built environment as ways of reducing crime.</p>
<h2>Crime prevention through environmental design</h2>
<p>The concept of <a href="https://cpted.net/">crime prevention through environmental design</a> has been in existence for decades. Law enforcement agencies worldwide use it.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com.ng/books/about/Crime_Prevention_Through_Environmental_D.html?id=prgIS7CH9F8C&redir_esc=y">Proper design and effective use of the built environment</a> can reduce the fear and incidence of crime, and improve quality of life. </p>
<p>It generally consists of surveillance, access control, territorial reinforcement, and space management. </p>
<p>Surveillance means that people can see what others are doing. This will deter would-be offenders from committing crime. Clear sightlines, effective lighting and landscaping can reduce the chances that offenders can hide or entrap victims. </p>
<p>Access control is the use of physical or symbolic barriers to attract, channel, or restrict the movement of people. This can be achieved through landscaping, fencing, gates, and other forms of technology that manage entry and exit to particular locations. </p>
<p>Territorial reinforcement signifies ownership. Well-maintained properties with clearly defined purposes send signals that the occupants are on guard. Providing a sense of ownership over an area encourages responsibility for managing the area and intervening if problems arise. </p>
<p>Space management relates to sustaining attractive, well-maintained, and well used spaces. Activity coordination, cleanliness, rapid repair of vandalism, and removing abandoned vehicles and graffiti are space management practices. So are replacing burned out lighting, and removing or refurbishing decayed physical elements.</p>
<p>My recent <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PM-02-2019-0009/full/html">study</a> examined these ideas from the perspective of property development firms and residents in Benin City. This capital of Nigeria’s Edo State is <a href="https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jgg/article/view/68087">growing rapidly</a> and had <a href="https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jgg/article/view/68087">the highest crime rate</a> in Nigeria in 2016 after Lagos, Abuja and Delta. Break-ins, robbery, kidnapping and ritual killings topped the list of crime incidents.</p>
<p>I used a questionnaire to collect data from representatives of 35 property firms and 362 residents. Findings show that: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>crime risk assessment is not one of the requirements for development approval</p></li>
<li><p>more than half (67%) of residents had been victims of burglary and theft</p></li>
<li><p>most developers (74%) and residents (79%) expect burglary and theft to increase in future</p></li>
<li><p>some developers and residents have spent money on crime prevention through environment such as fencing, lighting, access control and surveillance among others</p></li>
<li><p>about 88% of these attempts were not appropriately applied in a way that effective crime prevention could be achieved</p></li>
<li><p>most of the developers (91%) and residents (84%) were of the opinion that properly applied crime prevention would deter burglary and theft. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The developers and residents therefore need more help to know how to get it right. </p>
<h2>Implications for fighting crime in Nigeria</h2>
<p>Environmental impact assessments provide that certain developments must be designed to prevent damage to the environment. Similarly, developments should be designed to prevent or neutralise crime. Crime risk assessment and crime prevention through environmental design should formally be part of the Nigerian urban planning landscape. </p>
<p>Guidelines could be created to help town planning authorities assess development proposals in terms of crime risks. The guidelines should suggest that town planning authorities have an obligation to ensure that a development prevents or minimises crime risks that users and the community are exposed to. </p>
<p>Such developments would include a new or refurbished shopping centre, transport facility or interchange, large scale residential development, recreational facility or public place. </p>
<p>The implementation of the guideline provisions should be done by trained town planners or urban designers. </p>
<p>The introduction of these guidelines should be supported by a special course in police training.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adewumi I. Badiora does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s built environment should ideally be part of a broader, integrated approach to crime prevention and community policing.Adewumi I. Badiora, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Olabisi Onabanjo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444172020-09-06T20:13:11Z2020-09-06T20:13:11ZFace masks and facial recognition will both be common in the future. How will they co-exist?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356521/original/file-20200904-20-1h9t8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C14%2C1894%2C833&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pixabay</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s surprising how quickly public opinion can change. Winding the clocks back 12 months, many of us would have looked at a masked individual in public with suspicion. </p>
<p>Now, some countries have enshrined face mask use <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/countries-wearing-face-masks-compulsory-200423094510867.html">in law</a>. They’ve also been made <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/how-to-protect-yourself-and-others-from-coronavirus-covid-19/masks">compulsory in Victoria</a> and are recommended in several other states.</p>
<p>One consequence of this is that facial recognition systems in place for security and crime prevention may no longer be able to fulfil their purpose. In Australia, most agencies are silent about the use of facial recognition. </p>
<p>But documents leaked earlier this year revealed <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/clearview-ai-fbi-ice-global-law-enforcement">Australian Federal Police</a> and state police in <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-police-are-using-the-clearview-ai-facial-recognition-system-with-no-accountability-132667">Queensland, Victoria and South Australia</a> all use Clearview AI, a commercial facial recognition platform. New South Wales police <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-23/australian-founder-of-clearview-facial-recognition-interview/11887112">also admitted</a> using a biometrics tool called PhotoTrac.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/your-face-is-part-of-australias-national-security-weapon-should-you-be-concerned-47364">Your face is part of Australia's 'national security weapon': should you be concerned?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is facial recognition?</h2>
<p><a href="https://us.norton.com/internetsecurity-iot-how-facial-recognition-software-works.html">Facial recognition</a> involves using computing to identify human faces in images or videos, and then measuring specific facial characteristics. This can include the distance between eyes, and the relative positions of the nose, chin and mouth. </p>
<p>This information is combined to create a <a href="https://www.eff.org/pages/face-recognition">facial signature, or profile</a>. When used for individual recognition – such as to unlock your phone – an image from the camera is compared to a recorded profile. This process of facial “verification” is relatively simple.</p>
<p>However, when facial recognition is used to identify faces in a crowd, it requires a significant database of profiles against which to compare the main image. </p>
<p>These profiles can be legally collected by enrolling large numbers of users <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/help-support/meeting-our-requirements/biometrics">into systems</a>. But they’re sometimes collected through <a href="https://news.miami.edu/stories/2020/02/new-facial-recognition-software-scrapes-inventory-from-social-media.html">covert means</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353221/original/file-20200817-24-10qf4oa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Facial ‘verification’ (the method used to unlock smartphones) compares the main image with a single pre-saved facial signature. Facial ‘identification’ requires examining the image against an entire database of facial signatures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">teguhjatipras/pixabay</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem with face masks</h2>
<p>As facial signatures are based on mathematical models of the relative positions of facial features, anything that reduced the visibility of key characteristics (such as the nose, mouth and chin) interferes with facial recognition.</p>
<p>There are already many ways to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/clothes-accessories-that-outsmart-facial-recognition-tech-2019-10">evade or interfere</a> with facial recognition technologies. Some of these evolved from techniques designed to evade number plate recognition systems.</p>
<p>Although the coronavirus pandemic has escalated concerns around the evasion of facial recognition systems, <a href="https://theintercept.com/2020/07/16/face-masks-facial-recognition-dhs-blueleaks/">leaked US documents</a> show these <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6989376-U-FOUO-in-Violent-Adversaries-Likely-to-Use.html">discussions</a> taking place back in 2018 and 2019, too. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Xpu2MSmZkmU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This clip shows how fashion designers are outsmarting facial recognition surveillance / YouTube.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And while the debate on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/large-scale-facial-recognition-is-incompatible-with-a-free-society-126282">use</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/facial-recognition-technology-is-expanding-rapidly-across-australia-are-our-laws-keeping-pace-141357">legality</a> of facial recognition continues, the focus has recently shifted to the challenges presented by mask-wearing in public.</p>
<p>On this front, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) coordinated a <a href="https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2020/07/nist-launches-studies-masks-effect-face-recognition-software">major research project</a> to evaluate how masks impacted the performance of various facial recognition systems used across the globe.</p>
<p>Its <a href="https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2020/NIST.IR.8311.pdf">report</a>, published in July, found some algorithms struggled to correctly identify mask-wearing individuals <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/28/21340674/face-masks-facial-recognition-surveillance-nist">up to 50% of the time</a>. This was a significant error rate compared to when the same algorithms analysed unmasked faces.</p>
<p>Some algorithms even <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/28/tech/face-masks-facial-recognition/index.html">struggled to locate a face</a> when a mask was covering too much of it. </p>
<h2>Finding ways around the problem</h2>
<p>There are currently no usable photo data sets of mask-wearing people that can be used to train and evaluate facial recognition systems. </p>
<p>The NIST study addressed this problem by <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/28/21344751/facial-recognition-face-masks-accuracy-nist-study">superimposing</a> masks (of various colours, sizes and positions) over images of faces, as seen here:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1287876259586822144"}"></div></p>
<p>While this may not be a realistic portrayal of a person wearing a mask, it’s effective enough to study the effects of mask-wearing on facial recognition systems. </p>
<p>It’s possible images of real masked people would allow more details to be extracted to improve recognition systems – perhaps by estimating the nose’s position based on visible protrusions in the mask.</p>
<p>Many facial recognition technology vendors are already <a href="https://www.cnet.com/health/facial-recognition-firms-are-scrambling-to-see-around-face-masks/">preparing for</a> a future where mask use will continue, or even increase. <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2020/02/27/face-recognition-masks-resting-risk-face/">One US company</a> offers masks with customers’ faces printed on them, so they can unlock their smartphones without having to remove it. </p>
<h2>Growing incentives for wearing masks</h2>
<p>Even <a href="https://qz.com/299003/a-quick-history-of-why-asians-wear-surgical-masks-in-public/">before the coronavirus pandemic</a>, masks were a common defence against air pollution and viral infection in countries including China and Japan. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-always-wondered-why-many-people-in-asian-countries-wear-masks-and-whether-they-work-90178">I've always wondered: why many people in Asian countries wear masks, and whether they work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Political <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49939173">activists</a> also wear masks to evade detection on the streets. Both the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/technology/hong-kong-protests-facial-recognition-surveillance.html">Hong Kong</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/06/12/facial-recognition-ban/">Black Lives Matter</a> protests have reinforced protesters’ desire to dodge facial recognition by <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/17/21328287/face-masks-facial-recognition-privacy-security-protests">authorities and government agencies</a>. </p>
<p>As experts forecast a future with more <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-isnt-the-first-global-pandemic-and-it-wont-be-the-last-heres-what-weve-learned-from-4-others-throughout-history-136231">pandemics</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/12/air-pollution-rising-at-an-alarming-rate-in-worlds-cities">rising levels</a> of <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution#tab=tab_1">air pollution</a>, persisting <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2020/leaderless-struggle-democracy">authoritarian regimes</a> and a projected <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-increasing-the-risk-of-wildfires-99056">increase</a> in <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">bushfires</a> producing dangerous smoke – it’s likely mask-wearing will become the norm for at least a proportion of us.</p>
<p>Facial recognition systems will need to adapt. Detection will be based on features that remain visible such as the eyes, eyebrows, hairline and general shape of the face. </p>
<p>Such technologies are already under development. Several suppliers are offering <a href="https://www.facewatch.co.uk/2020/05/11/facewatch-launches-facemask-recognition-upgrade/">upgrades</a> and <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/finally-a-biometric-solution-that-recognizes-users-wearing-face-masks-and-doesnt-require-touch-301069400.html">solutions</a> that claim to deliver reliable results with mask-wearing subjects.</p>
<p>For those who oppose the use of facial recognition and wish to go undetected, a plain mask may suffice for now. But in the future they might have to consider alternatives, such as a mask printed with a fake <a href="https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/">computer-generated face</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Haskell-Dowland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With face masks now compulsory or recommended in various parts of the country, how are facial recognition systems functioning?Paul Haskell-Dowland, Associate Dean (Computing and Security), Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1226092019-10-23T12:32:20Z2019-10-23T12:32:20ZAnalyzing online posts could help spot future mass shooters and terrorists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290340/original/file-20190830-165989-tovgzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C147%2C5431%2C3350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can online posts help scholars – or police – tell the difference between people who are just ranting and those who plan real violence?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-laptop-mans-fist-hand-isolated-778968253">Aggapom Poomitud/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the weeks following two mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, police forces across the United States made more than 20 arrests based on <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2019/08/el-paso-walmart-social-media-violence-threats-arrests.html">threats made on social media</a>. </p>
<p>Police in Florida, for example, arrested an alleged white supremacist who, police said, threatened a shooting at a Walmart. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/florida-white-supremacist-arrested-threatening-shooting-walmart-police/story?id=64906798">Richard Clayton</a>, 26, allegedly posted on Facebook, “3 more days of probation left then I get my AR-15 back. Don’t go to Walmart next week.” </p>
<p>People who are contemplating, or even planning, serious crimes rarely make such clear public declarations of their intent. However, they might leave clues that, if properly understood, could offer opportunities to avert tragedy. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=N2wxtlUAAAAJ">We have</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XGnMu6gAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">teamed up</a> with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=_Q1uzVYAAAAJ">computer scientist Anna Rumshisky</a> to collect and analyze more than 185,000 words of extremist or hateful narratives published online by people who have then gone on to commit large-scale shootings or terrorist crimes. </p>
<p>We have also assembled a second, admittedly smaller, sample of over 50,000 words published online by people who did not go on to kill. </p>
<p>The key question for us was whether we could identify signals in online posts that could help police and other officials tell the difference between people who are upset and ranting online and those who intend to do real physical harm. We wondered if the way people express their feelings online could signal whether someone is a real-world danger or a Facebook fantasist.</p>
<h2>The power of words</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of many mass shootings or terrorist attacks, over the past two decades and around the world, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/25/timeline-intelligence-lee-rigby-murder">media coverage</a> often indicates that police had previously encountered the suspect.</p>
<p>During the buildup to a mass shooting or a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-drives-lone-offenders-62745">solo terrorist</a> attack, the planners often leak signals of what they’re about to do. A 2016 study found that in <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/249937.pdf">nearly 60% of lone-actor terrorist attacks</a>, the person involved produced letters or public statements before the attack that outlined his or her beliefs – though not necessarily violent intent, like the Florida man did about Walmart. They need to maintain secrecy to carry out their plans, but these attackers may fear that if their motivations remain unknown, their actions will have <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Lone-Actor-Terrorists-A-behavioural-analysis-1st-Edition/Gill/p/book/9781138787568">no real meaning</a>.</p>
<p>In the past, researchers have looked to various attributes of people’s behavior and personalities when seeking warning signs that they might become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000061">violent and dangerous</a> to the public. But those signals were not enough to prevent many high-profile attacks. For instance, the FBI had analyzed the emails of <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/08/nidal-hasan-anwar-awlaki-emails-fbi-fort-hood/">Nidal Malik Hassan</a> before he shot more than 30 people, killing 13, at Fort Hood, Texas, in 2009. </p>
<p>Australian police had assessed <a href="http://www.lindtinquest.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/findings-and-recommendations.pdf">Man Haron Moris</a> as a potential risk to public safety the day before he took hostages in a Sydney coffee shop in 2014. Tamerlan Tsarnaev, who planned the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, was, as the reporter’s phrase often goes, “<a href="https://theintercept.com/2015/11/18/terrorists-were-already-known-to-authorities/">known to authorities</a>,” as were the alleged perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks, and terrorist incidents in Madrid, London and Paris, <a href="https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/terrorists-known-to-authorities-carry-out-deadly-attacks">among others</a>. </p>
<p>However, there is not yet a way to evaluate or understand the relationship between writing words of hate and taking action.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293272/original/file-20190919-22412-m6x34z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is it possible to tell when rage is going to come offline and into the physical world?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/virtual-personality-concept-254752348">Valery Sidelnykov/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fighting talk</h2>
<p>It’s hard to draw strong conclusions from words posted on the internet: A person can post on Instagram about how much they go to the gym while in fact devouring their second delivery pizza of the day.</p>
<p>For years, looking at people’s words has been of little use. A U.K. investigation of the murder of a British soldier found that the killers’ expressions of desire to become a “martyr,” for instance, were dismissed as “a fairly standard example of [online] rhetoric,” rather than a serious indicator of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11252884/At-a-glance-findings-of-the-Intelligence-and-Security-Committee-report-on-murder-of-Lee-Rigby.html">violent intentions</a>.</p>
<p>Yet research has shown that words can indeed be used as indicators of their authors’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0261927X09351676">psychological states</a>. For instance, highly neurotic people are more likely to use first-person singulars, such as “I,” “me” and “mine.” By contrast, extroverts use more positive emotion words like “great,” “happy” and “amazing.” Social media posts have been used to diagnose <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/1979742.1979614">personality</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2531602.2531608">personal values</a> and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2017.02.005">depression</a>. </p>
<p>Our work seeks to extend this research to the effort to prevent mass shootings and lone-actor terrorist attacks. We compared the online writings and postings of people who had allegedly committed a mass shooting or lone-offender terrorist attack to posts from people who had expressed ideological intent and motivation online, but had no violent plans or intent when they were intercepted by law enforcement. What we found was that there were key differences in how they use words. Those who engaged in real-world violence commented differently from enraged online commentators with no violent intent.</p>
<p>In particular, we have found that people who later became violent were more likely to use emotionally laden and specifically targeted words like “shit,” “hate,” “you” and “they.” Violent people were less likely to use words about the external world, such as “people,” “world,” “state” and “time.” </p>
<p>Our analysis continues, including looking at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0021-9924(98)00009-4">structure of these two groups’ writing</a>, such as how well they stay on topic or diverge into tangents. We are also using machine learning and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.06640">natural language processing</a> to develop automatic tools that could remove the need for human judgment and help analyze large swathes of text to minimize the <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/25/18229714/cognizant-facebook-content-moderator-interviews-trauma-working-conditions-arizona">psychological and physical burden on analysts</a>. </p>
<p>Our findings are preliminary, but we are optimistic that these words can offer a window – and a warning – about individuals’ intentions. This work is <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2019/08/el-paso-walmart-social-media-violence-threats-arrests.html">by no means a standalone solution</a> to gun violence or terrorism, but it might help, even as predicting and preventing these sorts of attacks remains incredibly difficult.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Shortland receives funding from the Department of Defense Minerva Initiative and National Institute of Justice </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allyssa McCabe has received funding from Theodore Edson Parker Foundation and the University of Massachusetts President’s Office Creative Economy Initiatives Fund. </span></em></p>Researchers look for signals that might distinguish people who are upset and ranting online from those who intend to do real physical harm.Neil Shortland, Director, Center for Terrorism and Security Studies; Assistant Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies, UMass LowellAllyssa McCabe, Professor of Psychology, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1251432019-10-21T02:12:21Z2019-10-21T02:12:21ZThe global war on money laundering is a failed experiment<p>Money laundering rarely gets as literal as the case in Thailand last week, where police raided homes of a ring suspected of laundering a billion baht (about A$48 million) of drug proceeds and found millions <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1773349/police-bust-alleged-b1bn-drug-money-laundering-operation">stashed in a washing machine</a>.</p>
<p>Stories about money laundering, and efforts to prevent it, are rife. </p>
<p>In just the past week there were reports about Swiss bank UBS agreeing to pay a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ubs-settlement-italy/ubs-pays-more-than-10-million-euros-to-settle-italy-money-laundering-probe-idUSKBN1WW2EA">€10 million (about A$16 million) penalty</a> to end an Italian money laundering case; a New Zealand company, Jin Yuan Finance, being <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12276327">fined NZ$4 million (about A$3.7 million)</a> for not complying with anti-money laundering laws; and calls in Australia for a royal commission after leaked CCTV footage from Melbourne’s Crown Casino showed a man in a tracksuit exchanging “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/15/calls-for-crown-casino-inquiry-after-leaked-video-of-bricks-of-cash-in-junket-room">bricks of cash</a>” worth hundreds of thousands of dollars for gaming chips in one of the casino’s high-roller rooms.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-crown-allegations-show-the-repeated-failures-of-our-gambling-regulators-121173">The Crown allegations show the repeated failures of our gambling regulators</a>
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<p>In the latter case, Crown Casino defended itself on the basis of having a “comprehensive” Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing program overseen by the <a href="https://www.austrac.gov.au/">Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre</a> (AUSTRAC). </p>
<p>But federal parliamentarian Andrew Wilkie called the situation a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/15/calls-for-crown-casino-inquiry-after-leaked-video-of-bricks-of-cash-in-junket-room">catastrophic “multinational, multi-jurisdictional and multi-agency” failure</a> by politicians, state regulators, police and AUSTRAC.</p>
<p>He’s right, at least in part.</p>
<p>The deeper problem isn’t that national anti-money laundering laws are being flouted. It’s that the global anti-money laundering system is a failed experiment. </p>
<p>We need to have an honest conversation about what’s wrong with it, including the possibility that much of it is a waste of time, and some of it might be doing more harm than good.</p>
<h2>99% design failure</h2>
<p>Don’t get me wrong: money laundering controls do good things too. Suspicious transactions trigger alerts, offenders are arrested and assets seized. </p>
<p>But the amount of criminal funds intercepted is scarcely a drop in the bucket. The system is designed to catch <em>some</em> criminals. It has almost no impact on crime.</p>
<p>The United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime has estimated that just <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Illicit_financial_flows_2011_web.pdf">0.2%</a> of the proceeds of crime are seized. My update of the UN’s estimate (in research not yet published) suggests the figure might now be 0.1% or less. Either way, in practical terms the “success rate” of money laundering controls is scarcely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/JFC-08-2017-0071">an accounting rounding error</a> in criminal accounts.</p>
<p>There are many reasons for anti-money laundering’s failure, but a big problem is the emphasis on activity and effort rather than results. It’s the same mindset that focuses on the number of hours spent at work rather than what’s achieved, or how many speeding tickets are issued instead of whether harm from accidents is reduced. </p>
<p>Reforms to the global anti-money laundering system, <a href="http://www.fatf-gafi.org/publications/mutualevaluations/documents/effectiveness.html">rolled out from 2014</a>, were meant to address this problem. They didn’t. Though the language of “outcomes” and “effectiveness” was used, it meant something different to the <em>impact</em> and <em>effect</em> of regulations on reducing crime and its harms. </p>
<p>In other words, the new measures were mislabelled “outcomes”. They continued to measure effort and activity, such as the number of money laundering prosecutions, instead of the impact (if any) on crime. (I explain this in detail in a paper in the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-07-2017-0029">Journal of Money Laundering Control</a>, freely available until January 2020).</p>
<h2>Frenetic activity</h2>
<p>Frenetic compliance activity helps obscure the harsh reality of poor results. Casinos and banks conform to complex rules designed like a giant stack of colanders to catch water, continually adding new ones to “fix gaps”. New “compliance solutions” doggedly rake over the same ground covered by those that catch less than 1% of transactions.</p>
<p>The upshot is that companies can show they comply with anti-money laundering laws (Crown’s response is straight out of the compliance textbook) and countries can show they comply with international standards.</p>
<p>But does it stop crime? Who knows? The system isn’t designed to demonstrate its impact on crime. Jin Yuan Finance, for example, was fined because it breached anti-money laundering laws, not because there was necessarily laundering or any other crime.</p>
<p>A criminal mastermind given the chance to rewrite anti-money laundering rules might just keep what we have, on the basis it keeps the authorities ineffectually busy.</p>
<h2>Good intentions and ‘voluntary coercion’</h2>
<p>The problems with the system can be traced to the rushed and flawed way it was set up. </p>
<p>The modern anti-money laundering experiment started in 1989, at a G7 summit in Paris. The seven big industrialised nations bypassed treaty-based consensus to establish a “Financial Action Task Force” to help prevent drug trafficking. The task force – known as <a href="http://www.fatf-gafi.org/about/">FATF</a> – later targeted money laundering associated with other profit-motivated crimes and terrorism financing.</p>
<p>After a sluggish start, with few nations signing up to its compliance model, FATF made an offer governments couldn’t refuse – ironically echoing a famous line from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Godfather">The Godfather</a>. </p>
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<p>FATF rated countries’ anti-money laundering regimes and issued “black lists” and “grey lists” publicly naming those not meeting its “recommendations”. Banks did the rest. Treating the ratings and lists as a proxy for risk, access to the financial system became difficult for many countries. FATF’s intention (in its own words) was to “pressure” countries to comply, “<a href="http://www.fatf-gafi.org/publications/fatfgeneral/documents/annual-report-2017-2018.html">to maintain their position in the global economy</a>”. </p>
<p>Risking exclusion from financial markets, 205 countries and jurisdictions “voluntarily” joined the anti-money laundering movement. The system depends on a set of self-declared “best-practice” standards. This means each national anti-money laundering regime reflects the flaws of the international standard.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-increased-anti-money-laundering-measures-banks-are-shutting-out-women-46869">With increased anti-money laundering measures, banks are shutting out women</a>
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<p>At the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ga/">UN General Assembly</a> last month, leaders from small and large countries <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/ga12196.doc.htm">railed against</a> the perceived unfairness and damage caused by blacklists and financial sanctions. </p>
<p>Such protests might be more easily dismissed as self-serving if the anti-money laundering system worked. But it doesn’t.</p>
<p>Complicated laws, armies of regulators and costly compliance tasks give the comfort of activity and feeling of security, but they don’t make us safe from serious crime and terrorism. To resolve it, we must frankly confront the reality of its failure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald F Pol does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anti-money laundering efforts are based on measuring activity, not results. To cut crime and terrorism, we need a frank conversation about where the system has gone wrong.Ronald F Pol, Senior researcher NZ, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1183352019-06-05T07:01:04Z2019-06-05T07:01:04ZElectronic monitoring bracelets are only crime deterrence tools, they can’t ‘fix’ offenders<p>The man arrested after a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/darwin-shooting-people-police-arrest-gunman/11179136">deadly gun attack in Darwin</a> Tuesday night is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/04/police-say-they-have-reports-of-up-to-four-people-dead-in-darwin-shooting">reported</a> to have been on parole and wearing an electronic monitoring bracelet.</p>
<p>This leads to the same reaction we see following any high-profile crime. How could such a thing happen?</p>
<p>People may speculate that the criminal justice agencies involved have somehow dropped the ball. The offender was on their radar, after all.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/online-tools-can-help-people-in-disasters-but-do-they-represent-everyone-116810">Online tools can help people in disasters, but do they represent everyone?</a>
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<p>While this finger-pointing may serve a cathartic function, it is important we also question our expectations before assuming a failure occurred.</p>
<p>We need to understand what electronic monitoring intends to achieve, how it works, and what are its capabilities and limitations. </p>
<h2>Electronic tagging</h2>
<p>In the context of the corrections system, electronic monitoring refers to the tagging of a person as a form of surveillance, usually in the form of a GPS-enabled ankle bracelet.</p>
<p><a href="https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi254">In Australia</a>, each state and territory uses electronic monitoring differently, guided by their own legislative frameworks.</p>
<p>Practices vary considerably between jurisdictions. For example, in some places, certain offenders are targeted (high-risk recidivists, those who repeatedly reoffend, for example). In others, specific types of offences are the focus (such as child sex offences).</p>
<p>The application of electronic monitoring even differs between offenders, as the supervising agency uses it for reasons specific to each person.</p>
<p>A police department might use electronic monitoring to ensure a domestic violence perpetrator does not visit the victim before a trial. A probation officer might require an offender to wear a bracelet for 12 months to ensure they are attending treatment and meeting their curfew. A parole officer could place the GPS tracking condition on an offender for the first three months following release from prison to better understand how the parolee spends his or her time.</p>
<p>Each of these experiences will be quite different, as each is intended to fulfil a unique aim. </p>
<p>Ordinarily, electronic monitoring is used as a tool of incapacitation and deterrence.</p>
<p>In the first instance, an offender may be told to follow a particular rule – for example, to be home by 8pm, to stay away from the victim, to attend a treatment program, or not to go within 1km of a school. Electronic monitoring allows authorities to monitor the person’s compliance with such a condition.</p>
<p>In the latter instance, an offender may be deterred from certain behaviour if they believe their actions are likely to be detected through electronic monitoring. </p>
<h2>Monitoring actions</h2>
<p>When an offender is subject to electronic monitoring, a computer database is updated with information about the rules he or she has been instructed to follow. Each jurisdiction and each agency may have their own database, so where the offender appears in the database will depend on who is supervising the electronic monitoring order. </p>
<p>The database is then monitored by enforcement authorities, although this is sometimes outsourced to private providers or overseas companies. While the data is generally sent from the offender’s GPS device to the monitoring agency in real time, there can be delays in how long it takes for that information to be passed to police or corrective services. </p>
<p>What occurs when an offender breaches one of the rules and a computer alert is generated depends on factors such as legislation and the priority of a case influencing the response. The database includes information about what to do in the event of specific kinds of breaches with specific offenders. </p>
<p>In some cases, an alarm on the device may go off or, very rarely, the police may be immediately notified.</p>
<p>Most often, for routine cases and ordinary breaches, the monitoring agency will notify the offender’s supervisor (such as a parole officer or a local police department), who will then determine how to proceed. </p>
<p>There may be a lag of several days during this process. For example, if a low-risk offender misses their home curfew on Friday night (as determined by the GPS bracelet), the parole officer will not receive notification of this breach until Monday morning. </p>
<h2>The pros and cons of tagging</h2>
<p>There are a range of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2066220317697658" title="Electronic monitoring: The experience in Australia">benefits and disadvantages</a> to the electronic monitoring of offenders.</p>
<p>It can be effective in holding offenders accountable, protecting victims and enhancing community safety and preventing crimes. These come with important cost savings, particularly when offenders can be safety monitored in the community in lieu of imprisonment or as a mechanism of early release from prison.</p>
<p>But some of the downfalls are that offenders can tamper with their devices, and there can be GPS dead zones – particularly in a geographically vast country such as Australia. There may also be human error in using the systems, such as improper monitoring or unreasonable decision-making after an alert. </p>
<p>Yet collectively, the research evidence highlights that electronic monitoring can be an effective tool for discouraging recidivism. But it is only that: a tool.</p>
<p>The most effective practices for <a href="https://au.sagepub.com/en-gb/oce/environmental-corrections/book248663" title="Environmental Corrections: A New Paradigm for Supervising Offenders in the Community">supervising offenders in the community</a> include those that identify and reduce a person’s risks for continued criminal behaviour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-can-help-in-crime-prevention-but-we-still-need-a-human-in-charge-95516">AI can help in crime prevention, but we still need a human in charge</a>
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<p>Electronic monitoring will be most effective when it is used to support supervision that limits a person’s access to chances to commit crime. Such supervision should help them redesign their routines so that any risky settings are avoided and are replaced with more positive influences.</p>
<p>Thus, rather than simply giving offenders a long list of rules for what <em>not</em> to do, effective probation and parole strategies help offenders lead productive lives. </p>
<p>More broadly, it is imperative that correctional authorities provide rehabilitative interventions that address the underlying factors that contribute toward a person’s criminal behaviour. The <a href="https://nicic.gov/implementing-evidence-based-practice-community-corrections-principles-effective-intervention">most effective approaches</a> use cognitive-behavioural techniques to give offenders skills that encourage good decision-making. </p>
<p>Yet electronic monitoring cannot “fix” an offender’s impulsivity, lack of empathy, or any other underlying crime-conducive traits. Thus we should not confuse a technological aid with meaningful treatment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118335/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lacey Schaefer receives funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology as part of its Criminology Research Grants program. </span></em></p>Electronic monitoring can help deter people from committing further crimes, but it needs to be used along with other crime prevention methods.Lacey Schaefer, Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1002392018-08-05T20:13:21Z2018-08-05T20:13:21ZDesigned features can make cities safer, but getting it wrong can be plain frightening<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230545/original/file-20180803-41327-7u1tzc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many cities have used spikes on ledges and other spaces to prevent (usually homeless) people from sleeping or sitting on them.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>City planners and designers can help make spaces safer in many ways. One strategy is known as Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (<a href="http://www.cpted.net/">CPTED</a>, pronounced “sep-ted”). This approach is based on the idea that specific built and social environmental features can deter criminal behaviour.</p>
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<span class="caption">Breaking up smooth surfaces to prevent skateboarders (like this makeover in Melbourne’s Lincoln Square) is hostile architecture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sasha Petrova</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Strategies can be as simple as good maintenance, like rapidly removing graffiti, which can deter some offenders.</p>
<p>Another method is to build houses, streets, transport hubs and retail settings in a way that promotes visibility. This can include making windows and entrances of buildings face each other and clever use of lighting. The enhanced visibility this creates is known as “passive surveillance”, which can deter some offenders.</p>
<p>But in some cases design to prevent crime goes too far and creates hostile spaces. Examples of such unfriendly architecture include the use of metal studs or bolts to break up smooth surfaces to discourage skateboarders. </p>
<p>In some countries, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jun/12/anti-homeless-spikes-latest-defensive-urban-architecture">spikes have been installed</a> in places where people tend to sleep rough. An extreme example of this is the idea of coin-operated benches with retractable spikes.</p>
<p>Too much security can lead to sterile places no one wants to use. It can also result in locations that exclude certain groups of people, such as the young or the homeless. And some of these principles, if misapplied, can increase crime and fear of crime, <a href="http://safe-growth.blogspot.com/2018/01/shoot-girl-cpted-in-public-housing.html">reducing quality of life</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Metal studs are used in some places, like in Marseille, France, to deter rough sleepers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_architecture#/media/File:Boulons_anti-sdf_sur_un_perron_(Marseille,_France).jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<h2>Crime prevention through design</h2>
<p>In 1973, architect <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/title/defensible-space-people-and-design-in-the-violent-city/oclc/2936167">Oscar Newman led a ground-breaking study</a> comparing two New York social housing projects. Van Dyke (a high-rise building) had crime rates more than double those of Brownsville (a low-rise building). Given the similarity in populations, Newman argued the physical design of the buildings could explain this difference in crime. </p>
<p>This was the beginning of crime prevention through environmental design – a set of design principles now used, and sometimes mandated, in cities around the world, including Australia. These principles were used in the <a href="https://cdn.mra.wa.gov.au/production/documents-media/documents/central-perth/perth-city-link/file/perth-city-link-design-guidelines.pdf">Perth City Link project</a>, reconnecting the central business district with the entertainment district by sinking the railway line. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-design-safer-parks-for-women-city-planners-must-listen-to-their-stories-98317">To design safer parks for women, city planners must listen to their stories</a>
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<p>Public spaces were designed to be overlooked by users of surrounding buildings and spaces. Locations and activities in the area were connected by wide and highly visible pathways, CCTV was installed and lighting levels optimised to promote the use of pathways and spaces after dark. </p>
<p>Use of crime prevention principles is wide and varied. Examples range from installing signage to show ownership and deter outsiders, to installing better locks, doors and windows. Another strategy is to use permeable fences that provide barriers to access without compromising visibility between buildings and the street.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230512/original/file-20180803-41369-kg4xip.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Keeping a place well maintained and looking friendly (like this space in Korea that underwent a makeover) can make people feel safer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7OlTfFZNP8">Screenshot YouTube</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Studies show these principles, when applied appropriately, can be successful. In <a href="http://www.veilig-ontwerp-beheer.nl/publicaties/a-successful-cpted-approach-the-dutch-2018police-label-secure-housing2019">the Netherlands</a>, the risk of residential burglary fell by 95% in new estates and 80% in existing homes after these ideas were implemented as a wider wave of crime prevention in the late 1980s.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the UK <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fcpcs.2010.15">several studies</a> have shown significant reductions in crime through using principles such as building houses to face each other and the use of permeable fencing and managing foliage to maximise visibility. Retail crime has also <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1939-1668.2010.01057.x">been reduced</a> by, for instance, configuring and reducing the height of aisles so staff can see them more easily. </p>
<h2>Hostile design</h2>
<p>Like all good ideas, designing to prevent crime can, in some cases, <a href="http://criminology.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.001.0001/acrefore-9780190264079-e-2">cause harm</a>. Failure to assess crime risks before implementing solutions can result in poor outcomes that don’t deal with the local issues, which can make these worse and waste resources. This has been labelled as the “<a href="https://www.praxiseducation.com/index.php/product/16-cpted-thinkcrime%E2%80%8B">dark side</a>” of design.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230540/original/file-20180803-41354-1wp0sf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Skateboarders can no longer skate around Lincoln Square, in Melbourne, because of these metal bolts and the rough brick surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sasha Petrova</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Building a large wall around a religious building based on a perceived crime risk, for instance, might not be the best response. This is particularly the case if, when the crime risks are analysed, the building has only suffered incidents of minor graffiti. The expensive wall then needlessly divides the community and provides a blank canvas for more graffiti.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-urban-design-can-help-protect-pedestrians-from-vehicle-attacks-in-the-city-89536">How urban design can help protect pedestrians from vehicle attacks in the city</a>
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</em>
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<p>Then there’s what is called hostile or defensive architecture. This is often used to discourage certain groups, which are often not actual criminals, from using specific spaces.</p>
<p>Examples include:</p>
<ul>
<li>metal studs and bolts to break up smooth surfaces and discourage skateboarders</li>
<li>the “mosquito” sound device that emits a high-pitched frequency to repel
gathering youths</li>
<li>loud music (often classical) to discourage lingering of certain groups</li>
<li>pink lights that accentuate acne to discourage youths from congregating in certain spaces</li>
<li>water sprinklers that don’t really water anything</li>
<li>spikes to deter rough sleepers</li>
<li>barriers placed around hot air vents to exclude or discourage rough sleeping or excessive lingering.</li>
</ul>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/1665301" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Coin-operated retractable spikes on benches, as shown in this art installation, could be the next step in hostile architecture.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How can we use the principles better?</h2>
<p>There are certainly benefits to using design elements to make people feel safer. But these design principles are not outcomes. Reducing crime <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/crime-prevention-through-environmental-design/fennelly/978-0-12-411635-1">should be a process</a> where a risk assessment of crime comes first, and the solution of dealing with it comes in response to this. </p>
<p>In NSW, it’s mandatory to include a report assessing new large developments against principles of crime prevention through environment design. Crime risk assessment is part of this process, which should be a positive outcome.
But <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/cpcs.2016.1">such assessments</a> are generally inconsistent, incomplete, too generic and of poor quality. One reason is because it’s difficult to obtain up-to-date crime data at the scale required to assess a small location.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-create-safer-cities-for-everyone-we-need-to-avoid-security-that-threatens-93421">To create safer cities for everyone, we need to avoid security that threatens</a>
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<p>Collecting and analysing better-quality crime data can help reduce negative outcomes of such designs. Practitioners need to carefully consider the potential harm and negative impacts on the quality of life, not to mention the ethical implications, of any intervention before implementation. It’s also important to consider alternative strategies that could be more effective than deterrents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cozens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Design principles, known as ‘crime prevention through environmental design’, are used all over the world to make cities safer. But some of these principles can be discriminatory and hostile.Paul Cozens, Environmental Criminologist and Senior Lecturer in Urban and Regional Planning, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/955162018-04-27T07:20:33Z2018-04-27T07:20:33ZAI can help in crime prevention, but we still need a human in charge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216430/original/file-20180426-175050-6zjklr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The robot ED-209 from the movie RoboCop didn't perform as expected.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093870/">IMDB/RoboCop (1987)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine you live in a smart city that knows your face and follows your every move – the places you go, the people you see, and all of the things you do along the way.</p>
<p>Over time, autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) builds a profile that reports on how likely you are to commit a crime. When that risk is high, the police take pre-emptive action. Welcome to hyper-surveillance and the next generation of predictive policing.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/could-ai-based-surveillance-predict-crime-before-it-happens/">India</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-ai-crimes-before-happen-artificial-intelligence-security-plans-beijing-meng-jianzhu-a7962496.html">China</a> are currently implementing this level of surveillance to bring down crime rates and detect terrorists before they strike.</p>
<p><a href="https://interestingengineering.com/japan-set-to-launch-ai-system-to-predict-crime">Japan</a> is also looking at predictive systems ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-big-data-technology-predict-crime-hotspot-mapping-rusi-report-research-minority-report-a7963706.html">London</a> and elsewhere in the United Kingdom have been using <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/article/london-crime-predict-police-2017">similar technology</a> for some time.</p>
<p>It might already be happening in the city where you live.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friend-or-foe-just-look-at-the-way-a-person-moves-78334">Friend or foe? Just look at the way a person moves</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Pervasive, real-time surveillance like this is possible because more powerful, number-crunching computers can process the torrents of face recognition and gait analysis data coming from thousands of video cameras, all coordinated by advanced AI that can make sense of it all.</p>
<p>Not too long ago, we relied on eagle-eyed police patrols to ensure public safety. That was when we lived in small enough communities where people knew each other by sight. </p>
<p>But as cities continued to grow, becoming too large for the police officer alone, closed circuit television (CCTV), face recognition and earlier generation <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxvyeaL7NEM">predictive systems</a> came into use.</p>
<h2>The morality of hyper-surveillance</h2>
<p>Opinion is divided on the ethics of predictive policing. </p>
<p>Privacy advocates and civil libertarians have <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-profiling-the-social-and-moral-hazards-of-predictive-policing-92960">concerns</a>, if not objections, to this level of surveillance – fearing that it could become an instrument of discrimination.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, public safety and counter-terrorism advocates <a href="http://this.deakin.edu.au/innovation/algorithms-digital-detectives-in-the-fight-against-terrorism">argue</a> that predictive technology has great potential to thwart terrorist attacks and other threats to public safety.</p>
<p>Both arguments have force and validity, so the question is where exactly do we draw the line between the public interest and individual freedom?</p>
<p>The answer will differ case by case. Each jurisdiction must negotiate the answer taking account of all <a href="https://theconversation.com/close-up-the-governments-facial-recognition-plan-could-reveal-more-than-just-your-identity-92261">stakeholder concerns</a>.</p>
<p>Since terrorists attacked in the United States <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/9-11-attacks">on September 11, 2001</a> the degree of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-30/how-terror-incidents-have-shaped-global-airline-security/8757450">surveillance and search</a> in airports has increased dramatically.</p>
<p>In time, the travelling public came to accept the situation as being in their own best interests and that of their fellow passengers.</p>
<h2>Privacy begins and ends at the front door</h2>
<p>It is generally accepted that you have a right to privacy in your own home. When you close the front door, you can reasonably expect that no-one is looking and listening. </p>
<p>The exception is when you are at home but engaged in criminal activity that threatens the community. This is where we draw the line in this case between individual rights and the greater good.</p>
<p>But when you go outside, anyone can look at you if they wish. They might also overhear the conversation you’re having. There’s no right to privacy from the public gaze, and never has been.</p>
<p>But looking is different to making predictions - and the uncomfortable truth is that predictive policing technology has the potential to be used as a tool of oppression. Managing this risk in an open, democratic society is certainly a challenge, but not an insurmountable one with checks and balances.</p>
<h2>Weighing up the risks and the benefits</h2>
<p>Given the overall experience of predictive policing, it appears there is a strong case for its <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-big-data-technology-predict-crime-hotspot-mapping-rusi-report-research-minority-report-a7963706.html">continued use</a>. </p>
<p>In Australia, for example, <a href="http://this.deakin.edu.au/innovation/algorithms-digital-detectives-in-the-fight-against-terrorism">15 terror attacks</a> were reportedly thwarted in the past three years through police work supported by computer algorithms.</p>
<p>The question is, how do we minimise the risks to an acceptable level? </p>
<p>The short answer is to establish a legal framework that guarantees ethical transparency in any AI predictive policing methods, including how the algorithms are put together.</p>
<p>It would also rigorously ensure the data fed into predictive systems is accurate and unbiased. As with any computer system, the output is only as good as the input – garbage in, garbage out, as the saying goes.</p>
<p>This is necessary to address ongoing <a href="https://www.journalcswb.ca/index.php/cswb/article/view/36/75">concerns</a> about inherent bias in predictive systems. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-hard-to-improve-american-policing-62259">observed</a> that not all police forces are created equal. In the United States there are no less than <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=71">12,000</a> local police forces. There are bound to be differences, reflected in the quality of leadership and the availability of resources.</p>
<h2>Human/AI partnership</h2>
<p>Policing is not perfect and human officers <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-police-brutality-highlighted-in-ccc-report-20160930-grsm99.html">do not get it right all the time</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/close-up-the-governments-facial-recognition-plan-could-reveal-more-than-just-your-identity-92261">Close up: the government's facial recognition plan could reveal more than just your identity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But when it comes to AI in policing, I believe there should always be a place in law enforcement for the finely honed instincts of an experienced human officer tempered by a system of checks and balances. </p>
<p>The technology should always be subordinate to the human, taking the role of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/police-big-data-technology-predict-crime-hotspot-mapping-rusi-report-research-minority-report-a7963706.html">decision support helper</a>. </p>
<p>That way, when the era of hyper-surveillance arrives in your home town, it will be an accountable human, not a machine – however intelligent it may be – who decides whether a person represents a serious risk to public safety.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hZZhhA87d6g?wmode=transparent&start=69" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When AI policing goes wrong, in the 1987 movie RoboCop (WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT).</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95516/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI has a role to play in trying to prevent crime, but how much control should we give our robo cops?David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics and Socio-Technical Studies, School of ICT., Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/884862018-04-15T08:45:00Z2018-04-15T08:45:00ZAbalone poaching: lifting the lid on why, how and who<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214475/original/file-20180412-587-tp8oc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The value of abalone increased as it moves from traffickers and later to overseas wholesalers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildlife poaching has long been a subject of interest in academia. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13683500.2017.1343807">Research</a> by biologists, zoologists and environmental scientists mostly focused on the impact of these crimes on wildlife populations and their habitat. More recently, criminologists interested in different types of environmental crimes, have started studying poaching. </p>
<p>This is because of the realisation that poaching affects more than wildlife: it has implications for developing nations’ economies and often involves transnational criminal enterprises.</p>
<p>Theories developed to understand street criminals’ behaviour are now being applied to green criminology. The hope is that this will help identify the causes of wildlife crimes, provide offender profiles and facilitate practical solutions. One of the focus areas is abalone poaching. It’s an in-demand and expensive delicacy, and wild and farmed abalone fisheries are common in the Western Cape. </p>
<p>It is legal to harvest wild abalone (with permits and adherence to number limits) but poaching in the wild fisheries has steadily increased <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/15/wwf-95-of-abalone-stocks-from-sa-being-fished-illegally">since the mid-1990s</a>. This is partly because of the social, political and economic changes in South Africa after apartheid. A weak economy, high unemployment, and ineffective policing have contributed to the rise in abalone poaching. So too has <a href="http://www.traffic.org/home/2014/10/8/organized-crime-drugs-and-poverty-are-behind-south-africas-a.html">the presence</a> of Asian criminal enterprises in the region and increasing market demand for abalone from Asia.</p>
<p>In 2013 I conducted an <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12117-016-9265-4">exploratory analysis</a> of abalone poaching in a South African national park to see whether the “routine activities theory” might be useful in tackling the problem. This theory, which falls under the concept of situational crime prevention, contends that crime happens when three elements converge: a motivated offender, a suitable target and a lack of security or motivational guardianship. </p>
<p>Motivated offenders are the opportunistic criminals often present in socially disorganised communities. Suitable targets are accessible, valuable and desirable. Guardianship includes law enforcement and physical barriers. According to the theory, crime rates vary based on changes to these elements.</p>
<h2>Applying the theory in a national park</h2>
<p>The concept of situational crime prevention is useful in wildlife crime research. It draws on other theoretical approaches like <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02732170290062676">opportunity theory</a>. Opportunity theory is concerned with the availability of opportunities to commit crime. It also contends that offenders make rational choices or decisions selecting targets with little risk and high reward.</p>
<p>Among the national parks I visited was <a href="https://www.sanparks.org/parks/table_mountain/">Table Mountain</a> in the Western Cape. It’s a well established and frequently visited park in the densely populated Cape Town area. It has a full staff of rangers including an investigative unit, modern infrastructure to facilitate tourism and controlled access from land. There’s a marine protected area offshore that is home to abalone.</p>
<p>The rangers didn’t deter motivated offenders from targeting the park. Some poachers were subsistence hunters and sport divers who only took a few. Others were small-scale commercial poachers who legally entered the park by car and operated from the coastline, taking dozens of the molluscs at a time. The area was also targeted by large commercial operations that entered the marine protected areas in boats and dispatched scuba divers to poach hundreds of abalone. </p>
<p>Those are the offenders. Then there’s the “suitable target”: abalone itself. In 2013 poachers sold abalone for between USD$10 to <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/02/wildlife-watch-abalone-poaching-south-africa/">sometimes USD$40 per kilogram</a>. The value increased as it moved to traffickers and later to overseas wholesalers, where it reached a <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/02/wildlife-watch-abalone-poaching-south-africa/">few hundred dollars per kilogram</a>. Some final retail prices have even exceeded USD$3000 per kilogram in <a href="https://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/03/30/easy-pickings-for-abalone-smugglers/">Hong Kong’s markets</a></p>
<h2>Security makes the difference</h2>
<p>The key preliminary finding from the research was how variations in proper guardianship or security affected poaching. A park’s fencing had little influence on offender behaviour since land based poachers could legally enter by pretending to be tourists. </p>
<p>The major factor was the size and capability of ranger units. They need to continuously watch visitors and boats near the abalone habitat. Poachers quickly exploited the lack of security in these areas. I found no evidence of collusion between rangers and poachers.</p>
<p>So what are the possible solutions? These may include more remote surveillance from fixed cameras in parking lots and along the coastline, and by drones over the water. Funding for these improvements could come from charging increased fees for park admission or fishing licenses. Adding more rangers to monitor park visitors for suspicious activity along with further enhancing the park’s dedicated anti-poaching officers would be effective and is necessary. </p>
<p>Table Mountain had a motivated and capable investigative unit that was specially training in anti-poaching, including offshore operations, and able to deal with armed offenders should the need arise.</p>
<p>Anti-poaching efforts also need a sufficient number of well maintained patrol boats that allow armed rangers to physically check the activities of suspicious boats and sport divers in the protected areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Warchol does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Abalone poaching in Cape Town succeeds because there is a motivated offender, a suitable target and a lack of security.Greg Warchol, Professor Criminal Justice Department, Northern Michigan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/918042018-03-22T10:42:19Z2018-03-22T10:42:19ZWant to fight crime? Plant some flowers with your neighbor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211403/original/file-20180321-165577-pep406.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flint, Mich., has one of the highest crime rates in the country for a city of its size. One neighborhood has found a novel way to fight back.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carlos Osorio/AP Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Neighborhoods struggling with physical decline and high crime often become safer simply when local residents work together to fix up their neighborhood.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I at the <a href="http://yvpc.sph.umich.edu/">University of Michigan School of Public Health Youth Violence Prevention Center</a> have spent nearly a decade <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B9HaG4kAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">documenting</a> why. Research from cities across the United States shows how small changes to urban environments — like planting flowers or adding benches — reduce violence. </p>
<p>The result is an emerging crime prevention theory we call “busy streets.” Here’s how it works.</p>
<h2>From broken windows to busy streets</h2>
<p>Busy streets flips the logic of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-policing-and-the-origins-of-stop-and-frisk-and-how-it-went-wrong">broken windows theory</a> – a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/304465/">controversial criminological approach to public safety</a> – on its head. Broken windows defenders see urban disorder in U.S. cities – graffiti, litter, actual broken windows and the like – as a catalyst of antisocial behavior. So they direct police to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-problem-with-broken-windows-policing/">crack down on minor offenses</a> like vandalism, turnstile jumping and public drinking. </p>
<p>Proponents of busy streets theory, on the other hand, believe it’s better for neighborhoods to clean up and maintain their own city streets. </p>
<p>Our research in Flint, Michigan – a once prosperous manufacturing hub near Detroit that’s now synonymous with <a href="https://news.vice.com/article/the-unraveling-of-flint-how-vehicle-city-stalled-long-before-the-water-crisis">industrial decline, unemployment and crime</a> – documents this process in action. </p>
<p>Flint’s median income today is less than US$26,000, and more than half of families with children live in poverty. It lost 27 percent of its residents since 1990, U.S. <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/flintcitymichigan/PST045216">census data</a> shows. Nearly 1 in 5 homes is vacant. Crime followed this cycle of abandonment and decay, <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/summer16/highlight2.html">as it has in postindustrial cities across the Rust Belt</a>. Flint now has the <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-4">second-highest homicide rate among U.S. cities with populations under 100,000</a>, after Gary, Ind. </p>
<p>In 2012, the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/uacflint/">University Avenue Corridor Coalition</a> – a group of residents, businesses and two local colleges – decided to try to prevent crime by fixing up a <a href="https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/mcrp/70/">3-mile stretch of University Avenue running through the Carriagetown neighborhood of central Flint</a>. We began measuring their results in 2014.</p>
<p>The group started holding frequent neighborhood cleanup days to <a href="http://www.flintside.com/features/reinvetinguniversityavenue.aspx">fix up vacant lots and abandoned buildings</a>, symbolically “owning” them by adding lighting, sidewalk repair, benches and plantings. The owners were usually happy to allow neighbors to fix up their private property for free. Sometimes, they even pitched in.</p>
<p>Those changes, we observed, inspired other homeowners and businesses on this flat, three-lane road to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.12.003">spruce up their properties</a>, too – what one local resident called the “spreading effect of pride.”</p>
<p>“I think that people really just needed to see that, ‘Hey, somebody does care about this other than just us,‘” said a coalition member.</p>
<p>The group also successfully pushed to get a local corner liquor store – dubbed the “Stab 'n’ Grab” because fights broke out there so often – transformed into a Jimmy John’s sandwich shop. That may sound like just another chain restaurant, but in this part of Flint there are few businesses and almost nowhere else to eat. A new sandwich shop was a huge development. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211214/original/file-20180320-31633-127sp7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The corner of University Avenue and North Grand Traverse Street in Flint has been transformed. Above: a liquor store where fights used to break out. Below: the Jimmy John’s sandwich shop that replaced it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Street View</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The vacant lot across the street from the Jimmy John’s, previously a favorite public drinking spot, was turned into a park called University Square. It now hosts regular events, replete with food trucks and lawn games. </p>
<p>When people drive by this once derelict intersection and see a block party underway, a community organizer told me, their jaws drop. </p>
<h2>Busy streets have less crime</h2>
<p>These <a href="http://www.cpted.net/">surface-level environmental changes</a> turned out to have profound economic and societal effects on this part of central Flint. </p>
<p>We surveyed residents there in 2014 – before the intervention began – as well as in 2016 and 2017. We are now preparing the results of the Flint study for publication in an academic journal, but here’s a snapshot of our findings.</p>
<p>Over time, community members reported fewer mental health problems, said they’d been victims of crime less often, and felt less afraid. That’s probably because crime did go down along the University Avenue Corridor: According to <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-15B-s82mACSSVPwJjOt-d-b16-3IT6e/view">the coalition’s latest report</a>, assaults decreased 54 percent, robberies 83 percent and burglaries 76 percent between 2013 and 2018. </p>
<p>To test the connection with the coalition’s work, we compared this area to a control group of Flint neighborhoods that had suffered similar levels of disinvestment and urban decay. We learned that places where empty lots were being maintained by the community had nearly 40 percent fewer assaults and violent crimes than untouched vacant lots.</p>
<p>This finding is similar to data from other cities. From 1999 to 2008, for example, the city of Philadelphia <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwr273">cleaned up 4,436 vacant lots, signaling “ownership”</a> with fencing, benches, plantings and the like. Gun assaults in areas where the interventions occurred <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/02/20/1718503115.full.pdf">dropped by 29 percent over three years</a>. Nuisance crimes like loitering and vandalism declined 30 percent. </p>
<p>Philadelphia also saw economic gains from maintaining empty land and fixing up abandoned properties. According to an <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303434">economic analysis published in the American Journal of Public Health</a> in 2016, for every dollar spent reoccupying an abandoned building, taxpayers saved $5 in potential criminal justice costs. Cleaned-up vacant lots saved the city even more: $26 per dollar spent.</p>
<p>People in areas of Philadelphia with newly greened lots also reported exercising more and experiencing less stress, presumably because they they felt more comfortable being outside. </p>
<h2>Resilient cities</h2>
<p>One likely reason that crime drops after joint neighborhood improvement projects is community engagement. Residents <a href="https://umich.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=bc01aab1491542418477312a5fdaef68">in the University Corridor intervention area</a> reported participating more in neighborhood watches, block associations and community events than in the area where residents didn’t undertake improvement projects. </p>
<p>In other words, when neighbors work together to clean up, say, an empty lot, they don’t just eliminate <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/us/foreclosures-lead-to-crime-and-decay-in-abandoned-buildings.html">the kind of dark, empty place that lends itself to criminal activity</a>. There are spin-off effects, too. </p>
<p>Nicer public spaces encourage more people to spent time in those places, which helps neighbors get to know each other. And when people know each other, they look out for each other, monitoring activity in their neighborhood more closely. Streets get busy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211400/original/file-20180321-165547-1ml7ctj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Community members hauled garbage out of the Flint River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CPTED</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also found that the efforts to upgrade public spaces along the University Corridor spurred a modest local economic recovery. </p>
<p>Before the 2013 intervention, very few businesses were operating in the area. From 2015 to 2017, seven new businesses opened. More commerce makes streets busier, too.</p>
<h2>Role of the police</h2>
<p>Based on our surveys, University Corridor residents were also more willing to report crimes to the police after the 2013 intervention began. </p>
<p>This was critical in this mostly African-American neighborhood, where many people expressed mistrust in local law enforcement. They said officers were “never around when you need them.” </p>
<p>Indeed, Flint’s police department – overworked and underfunded – was called “broken” in a Feb. 25, 2018, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/photo-booth/inside-a-broken-police-department-in-flint-michigan">New Yorker article</a>. </p>
<p>So when Kettering University, one of two partner colleges in the University Corridor coalition, got a <a href="http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2018/01/criminal_prevention_grant_incr.html">grant that financed more police presence in the area</a>, many locals said they were grateful. </p>
<p>Police can lay the foundation for neighborhood revitalization efforts to succeed. The aim is not to aggressively flood high-crime areas with police – as cities like <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/13/nyregion/police-widen-plan-to-flood-crime-areas.html">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-problem-with-broken-windows-policing/">Newark did</a> in their broken windows days – but rather to increase foot patrols. This shows residents that the city cares about their neighborhood and their safety. </p>
<p>But law enforcement is not the main reason “busy streets” work to prevent crime. Rather, after years of studying community resilience, I believe that locally driven revitalization projects make troubled neighborhoods safer because they recognize residents not as victims but as agents of change. </p>
<p>Together, neighbors <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1090198114558590">help people rebuild the kind of economic and social fabric that keeps communities healthy</a>. </p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to more accurately reflect Flint’s current population size and homicide rate.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc A Zimmerman is the director of the Prevention Research Center of Michigan and the CDC-funded Youth Violence Prevention Center. He is the editor of Youth and Society, a member of the editorial board for Health Education Research and editor emeritus of Health Education and Behavior.</span></em></p>Crime is way down in one Flint, Michigan, neighborhood, where locals have teamed up to revamp neglected public spaces. Here, why ‘busy streets’ can prevent violence and save cities money.Marc A. Zimmerman, Professor, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/863332017-11-01T18:56:31Z2017-11-01T18:56:31ZUnderstanding the triggers for filicide will help prevent it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191973/original/file-20171026-28053-ej2fhx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Comparatively little is known about the crime of filicide.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Filicide, the killing of a child by their parent or caregiver, is estimated to account for <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/21-40/mr23.html">18 to 25%</a> of family homicide cases in Australia. Filicide often <a href="http://jaapl.org/content/33/4/496">involves multiple victims</a> and has a devastating effect on both families and communities. Despite this, comparatively little is known about it.</p>
<p>In Australia, estimates suggest that <a href="http://aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi255.pdf">25 children</a> are killed every year by a parent or caregiver. Children aged less than one year are <a href="http://aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi255.pdf">at greatest risk</a>. </p>
<p>Because of differences in jurisdictions around reporting and legislation, child deaths are recorded and analysed individually by states and territories. <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/sr/sr002.pdf">National publications</a> that analyse police data are limited, and only report aggregate data. </p>
<p>This broad approach precludes any in-depth analysis of risk factors and circumstances around individual cases, resulting in a somewhat piecemeal understanding of child-abuse-related fatalities. </p>
<p>Understanding filicide is particularly difficult because it is uncommon. However, given the impact it has on communities, it is necessary to examine some converging risk factors to understand where individual and situational factors combine to increase the risk.</p>
<h2>Risk factors</h2>
<p><a href="https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/child-deaths-abuse-and-neglect">Existing research</a> indicates mental illness, previous abuse, and domestic violence are risk factors for filicide. </p>
<p>Understanding filicide has generally focused on <a href="http://ajp.psychiatryonline.org/doi/abs/10.1176/ajp.126.3.325">motive</a>, perpetrator <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/car.2358/abstract">gender</a>, or the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109051380600064X">biological relationship</a> with the victim. </p>
<p>Combining these factors may develop a more nuanced perspective of filicide. This is particularly important given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-live-now-australian-families-at-a-glance-59680">diversity of families</a> in contemporary Australia. Separation, divorce and other complex living arrangements for children have broadened the concept of families, making a more detailed approach warranted.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-live-now-australian-families-at-a-glance-59680">How we live now: Australian families at a glance</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Focusing on family relationships to identify risk</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.swinburne.edu.au/research/forensic-behavioural-science/">Our research</a> aimed to identify similarities and differences between cases of filicide according to victim-perpetrator relationship.</p>
<p>From the National Coronial Information System, we identified 118 child victims, nine adult victims and 26 suicides involving 97 perpetrators. Information about the circumstances surrounding the cases was obtained from autopsy reports, toxicology reports, police reports, Supreme Court judgements, and media reports.</p>
<p>We identified five main victim-perpetrator relationships at the time of the incident. There were too few cases involving a de facto female, separated mother, and single father to include in our analysis.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192381/original/file-20171030-17709-1e9e0bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<hr>
<p>Analysis using these categories revealed some interesting patterns in relation to the more likely circumstances surrounding filicide perpetrated by particular family members.</p>
<p>For example, although mental illness was common among all perpetrators, female perpetrators were most likely to have a diagnosed mental illness. Male perpetrators were more likely to have had prior contact with the criminal justice system. </p>
<p>However, substance abuse was not a distinguishing factor for any perpetrator, gender or relationship. </p>
<p>Separated fathers were more likely to have had custodial issues at the time of the fatal incident. Homicides committed by this group were more likely to involve multiple children and/or other adult victims and suicide. </p>
<p>Where there were multiple child victims, they were more likely to have been administered sedatives before death. </p>
<p>Prior to the filicide incident, separated fathers were often described as loving, whereas coupled fathers were more likely to have had a history of intimate partner violence. </p>
<p>In contrast, de facto fathers were more likely to have abused the child in the events leading up to the fatal incident. However, they were least likely to commit suicide at the time of the incident. </p>
<p>In terms of the cause of death, violent deaths (resulting in head/spinal injuries or multiple abdominal injuries) were more common for victims of male perpetrators. This was particularly the case with de facto males. Female perpetrators most commonly killed by asphyxiation.</p>
<h2>Applying this research to prevent filicide</h2>
<p>Because it is uncommon, and the perpetrator is often unknown to services prior to the event, predicting filicide is almost impossible. Preventing filicide, however, may be possible in some cases. </p>
<p>Filicide crimes are highly variable and like all classification systems, there are limitations. However, the more likely that research identifies patterns that have an application for practice, the greater the opportunity for prevention.</p>
<p>Given that filicide involves parent or caregiver perpetrators, understanding the various contexts in which it occurs is one way to raise awareness of children at risk of serious abuse. This is particularly important in child protection, but equally so in community corrections, primary health care, and maternal and child health settings.</p>
<p>An improved understanding of the circumstances in which filicide occurs may contribute to its prevention by improving the ability of practitioners to identify high-risk cases. This would be aided by the systematic collection and analysis of information across all Australian jurisdictions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Parents killing their children is uncommon, but there are some risk factors around the crime such as mental illness, previous abuse and domestic violence.Lillian De Bortoli, Research Fellow, Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of TechnologyMargaret Nixon, Lecturer, Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/613542017-04-05T01:09:36Z2017-04-05T01:09:36ZFacial recognition is increasingly common, but how does it work?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163908/original/image-20170404-5697-os7vpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mapping a face is the starting point.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/biometric-verification-young-man-face-recognition-331957112">Anton Watman/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Trump <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/01/31/512439121/trumps-executive-order-on-immigration-annotated">administration’s efforts</a> to impose new immigration rules drew attention – and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/29/politics/hawaii-trump-travel-ban-extended/">legal fire</a> – for its restrictions on the ability of people born in certain majority Muslim countries to enter the U.S. In the frenzy of concern, an obscure piece of the executive orders did not get scrutinized, or even noticed, very much: an <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Passcode/2017/0210/Trump-s-immigration-order-vastly-expands-border-surveillance">expansion of facial recognition systems in major U.S. airports</a> to monitor people leaving the U.S., in hopes of catching people who have overstayed their visas or are wanted in criminal investigations.</p>
<p>It’s a much more powerful version of the method your <a href="https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT201891">phone or computer might use to identify friends</a> in your photos. Using computers to <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">recognize people’s faces and validate their identities</a> can <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">streamline access control</a> for secure corporate and government buildings or devices. Some systems can <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">identify known or suspected criminals</a>. Businesses can analyze their customers’ faces to help <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">tailor marketing strategies</a> to people of different genders, ages and ethnic backgrounds. There are even consumer services that take advantage of facial recognition, like virtual <a href="https://www.macstories.net/news/iphone-app-with-face-tracking-technology-lets-you-try-virtual-glasses/">eyeglass fitting</a> and <a href="http://modiface.com/news.php?story=60">virtual makeovers</a>.</p>
<p>There are also serious privacy concerns as government agencies and companies are more able to track individuals through their communities, and even around the world. The facial recognition market is worth approximately US$3 billion and is expected to grow to <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facial-recognition-market-component-software-003400704.html">$6 billion by 2021</a>. Surveillance is a large reason for growth; <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facial-recognition-market-component-software-003400704.html">government entities</a> are the primary consumers.
The FBI has a database with images of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/27/us-facial-recognition-database-fbi-drivers-licenses-passports">approximately half the U.S. population</a>. There are also fears of people using facial recognition to engage in online harassment or even <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/05/20/facial-recognition-nightmare/">real-world stalking</a>.</p>
<p>As facial recognition becomes more common, we must know how it works. As someone who studies and researches the legal implications of new technology in criminal investigations, I believe it’s important to understand what it can and can’t do, and how the technology is progressing. Only then can we have informed discussions about when and how to use computers to recognize that most human of features – our faces.</p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>As one of several methods of what are called “biometric” identification systems, facial recognition examines physical features of a person’s body in an attempt to uniquely distinguish one person from all the others. Other forms of this type of work include the very common <a href="https://gcn.com/articles/2017/01/26/iarpa-fingerprints.aspx">fingerprint matching</a>, <a href="https://fee.org/articles/welcome-aboard-but-first-us-marshals-will-scan-your-retina/">retina scanning</a>, <a href="https://www.biometricupdate.com/201703/samsung-galaxy-s8-to-feature-princeton-identity-iris-technology-for-mastercard-selfie-pay">iris scanning</a> (using a more readily observable part of the eye) and even <a href="https://www.biometricupdate.com/201703/pindrop-voice-authentication-to-be-integrated-with-amazon-connect">voice recognition</a>.</p>
<p>All of these systems take in data – often an image – from an unknown person, analyze the data in that input, and attempt to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TCSVT.2003.818349">match them to existing entries</a> in an database of known people’s faces or voices. Facial recognition does this in <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-621">three steps</a>: detection, faceprint creation, and verification or identification. </p>
<p>When an image is captured, computer software analyzes it to identify where the faces are in, say, a crowd of people. In a mall, for example, <a href="http://www.consumerreports.org/privacy/facial-recognition-who-is-tracking-you-in-public1/">security cameras</a> will feed into a computer with facial recognition software to identify faces in the video feed.</p>
<p>Once the system has identified any potential faces in an image, it <a href="https://cours.etsmtl.ca/sys828/REFS/Intro/Hanbook%20of%20Face%20Recognition.pdf#page=18">looks more closely</a> at each one. Sometimes the image needs to be <a href="https://cours.etsmtl.ca/sys828/REFS/Intro/Hanbook%20of%20Face%20Recognition.pdf#page=20">reoriented or resized</a>. A face very close to the camera may seem tilted or stretched slightly; someone farther back from the camera may appear smaller or even partially hidden from view. </p>
<p>When the software has arrived at a proper size and orientation for the face, it looks even more closely, seeking to create what is called a “<a href="https://www.springer.com/us/book/9780857299314">faceprint</a>.” Much like a fingerprint record, a faceprint is a set of characteristics that, taken together, uniquely identify one person’s particular face. Elements of a faceprint include the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-621">relative locations of facial features</a>, like eyes, eyebrows and nose shape. A person who has small eyes, thick eyebrows and a long narrow nose will have a very different faceprint from someone with large eyes, thin eyebrows and a wide nose. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2010/09/27/how-to-hide-your-face-from-big-brother-try-sunglasses/#273c09e6456f">Eyes</a> are a key factor in accuracy. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2010/09/27/how-to-hide-your-face-from-big-brother-try-sunglasses/#273c09e6456f">Large dark sunglasses</a> are more likely to reduce the accuracy of the software than facial hair or regular prescription glasses.</p>
<p>A faceprint can be compared with <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-621">a single photo</a> to verify the identity of a known person, say an employee seeking to enter a secure area. Faceprints can also be compared to databases of many images <a href="https://cours.etsmtl.ca/sys828/REFS/Intro/Hanbook%20of%20Face%20Recognition.pdf#page=20">in hopes of identifying an unknown person</a>.</p>
<h2>It’s not always easy</h2>
<p>A key factor affecting how well facial recognition works is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TCSVT.2003.818349">lighting</a>. An evenly lit face seen directly from the front, with no shadows and nothing blocking the camera’s view, is the best. In addition, whether an image of a face contrasts well with its background, and <a href="https://cours.etsmtl.ca/sys828/REFS/Intro/Hanbook%20of%20Face%20Recognition.pdf#page=20">how far away it is</a> from the camera, can help or hurt the facial recognition process.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163889/original/image-20170404-5736-93z0iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uneven light, a bad angle and a strange expression can cause facial recognition to fail.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rouadec/12362434563/">rouadec/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another very important challenge to successful facial recognition is the degree to which the person being identified cooperates with – or is even aware of – the process. People who know they are using facial recognition, such as that employee trying to get into a restricted room, are relatively easy to work with. They are able to look directly at the camera in proper lighting, to make things optimal for the software analysis.</p>
<p>Other people don’t know their faces are being analyzed – and may not even know they’re being surveilled by these systems at all. Images of their faces are trickier to analyze; a face picked out of a crowd shot may have to be digitally transformed and zoomed in before it can generate a faceprint. That leaves more room for the system to <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">misidentify the person</a>.</p>
<h2>Potential problems</h2>
<p>When a facial recognition system incorrectly identifies a person, that can cause a number of potential problems, depending on what kind of error it is. A system restricting access to a specific location could wrongly admit an unauthorized person – if, say, she was wearing a disguise or even just looked similar enough to someone who should be allowed in. Or it could block the entry of an authorized person by failing to correctly identify her.</p>
<p>In law enforcement, surveillance cameras aren’t always able to get very good images of a suspect’s face. That could mean identifying an innocent person as a suspect – or even failing to recognize that a known criminal just ran afoul of the law again.</p>
<p>Regardless of how accurate it appears to be on TV crime dramas, there is room for error, though the technology is improving. The National Institute of Standards and Technology has estimated that stated error rates are declining <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">50 percent every two years</a>, and are currently <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8173">around 0.8 percent</a>. That’s better than voice recognition, which has <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/article/microsofts-newest-milestone-worlds-lowest-error-rate-in-speech-recognition/">error rates above 6 percent</a>. But <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/facing-facts-best-practices-common-uses-facial-recognition-technologies/121022facialtechrpt.pdf">facial recognition may still be more error-prone</a> than <a href="http://www.sciencepublication.org/ijast/documents/ijastiss2/4.pdf">iris scanning</a> and <a href="https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2004/07/nist-study-shows-computerized-fingerprint-matching-highly-accurate">fingerprint scanning</a>.</p>
<h2>Privacy concerns</h2>
<p>Even if it’s accurate, though – and perhaps even more so as accuracy improves – facial recognition raises <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-621">privacy concerns</a>. One of the chief worries is that, much like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-720X.2006.00024.x">rise of DNA databases</a>, facial features and photos are being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/27/us-facial-recognition-database-fbi-drivers-licenses-passports">warehoused by government agencies</a>, which will become able to track people and erase any notion of privacy or anonymity.</p>
<p>New privacy problems are cropping up all the time, too. A new smartphone app, <a href="http://www.computerworld.com/article/3071920/data-privacy/face-recognition-app-findface-may-make-you-want-to-take-down-all-your-online-photos.html">FindFace</a>, allows people to take a person’s photo and use facial recognition to find their social media accounts. Ostensibly a convenient way to connect with friends and co-workers, the app invites misuse. People can use it to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2017/mar/11/sxsw-facial-recognition-biometrics-surveillance-panel">expose identities</a> and <a href="http://fusion.net/this-face-recognition-company-is-causing-havoc-in-russi-1793856482">harass others</a>.</p>
<p>These new capabilities are also raising concern about other malicious uses of publicly available images. For example, when police issue alerts about missing children, they often include a photograph of the child’s face. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2017/mar/11/sxsw-facial-recognition-biometrics-surveillance-panel">There is little regulation or oversight</a>, so nobody knows whether those images are also being entered into facial recognition systems. </p>
<p>This, of course, doesn’t even touch on using facial recognition tools along with other technologies like police body cameras, geolocation software and machine learning to assist in <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/03/22/real-time-face-recognition-threatens-to-turn-cops-body-cameras-into-surveillance-machines/">real-time tracking</a>. That goes beyond simple identification and into the realm of where someone has been, and where the software predicts they will go. Combining technologies offers attractive options for crime fighting, and deepens the fissures in our privacy.</p>
<p>Technology provides powerful tools, and the law is often ill-equipped to keep pace with new developments. But if we’re going to be using facial recognition in immigration and law enforcement decisions, we must engage with its possibilities and its detriments, and understand the issues of accuracy, privacy and ethics this new capability raises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Gabel Cino receives federally funded research grants in the area of criminal law.</span></em></p>Computers are getting better at identifying people’s faces, and while that can be helpful as well as worrisome. To properly understand the legal and privacy ramifications, we need to know how facial recognition technology works.Jessica Gabel Cino, Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Associate Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/732722017-03-14T00:08:18Z2017-03-14T00:08:18ZHow to cut Australia’s $48 billion crime bill<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159885/original/image-20170308-14963-26y7o0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Police training is crucial to crime prevention.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2016/justice/rogs-2016-volumec-justice.pdf">Crime costs Australia</a> almost A$48 billion per year. In anyone’s language, that is a public cost that needs to be addressed urgently. Fortunately, we now have an abundance of research findings that tell us how we can do that. </p>
<p>It is disappointing that there has not been any decrease in the use of expensive traditional crime control measures offered by formal justice systems. Governments <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-we-need-more-police-or-are-there-better-ways-to-cut-crime-53064">continue to hire more police</a>. Parliaments are directing courts to increase sentences. As a result, our prisons are being <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4517.0">pushed to the limit</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, most <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4530.0">crime is declining</a> across the nation. Although it is tempting, we need to be careful not to overstate any connection between the fall in crime and <a href="https://crimesciencejournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-7680-2-5">punitive populism</a>. </p>
<p>Formal criminal justice processes, necessary as they may be, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-police-wont-necessarily-lead-to-better-outcomes-on-family-violence-heres-what-we-need-70755">a blunt instrument</a> in the fight against crime. Most processes are simply pushing today’s problems into the path of future generations.</p>
<p>Instead, communities are more likely to be crime-free if they are built on equality of opportunity and <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-want-to-cut-crime-you-cant-ignore-the-evidence-37020">strong social capital</a>. For these reasons, policymakers should develop, adopt or expand the following programs and initiatives. The cost of these investments pales into insignificance when compared with the cost of crime now and into the future.</p>
<p>In our correctional policies, we need to inject life back into <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/tandi/401-420/tandi412.html">prison-based rehabilitation programs</a>. This would improve accommodation support and employment opportunities for ex-prisoners, and ameliorate the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aboriginal-people-with-disabilities-crowd%20australias-prisons-48166">debilitating effect</a> that mental ill health has on the ability of ex-prisoners, especially Aboriginal offenders, to rejoin society successfully. </p>
<p>To stem the flow of new offenders, we must continue to fund diversionary schemes designed to keep young people out of court. This means <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rpp/121-140/rpp127/04_defining.html">supporting the work</a> of restorative justice practitioners. We should applaud the reinstatement of the Queensland drug court that <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/diversionary-courts-fall-victim-to-funding-cuts-20120912-25sj5.html">fell out of favour</a> with the Newman government in 2012. <a href="http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/services/court-programs/review-of-drug-court-and-specialist-courts">The place of specialist courts</a> in the Australian justice framework must be consolidated. </p>
<p>Police training is crucial to crime prevention. All training must reinforce the importance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/civilizing-the-fractured-relationship-between-police-and-minority-communities-40061">respect for the communities</a> the officers serve. All police, not just recruits, need extra training to prevent and respond to family violence. Ideally, there would be dedicated officers in every police station assessed as needing such specialised support.</p>
<p>In addition, governments must adequately fund <a href="http://womenssafetyservices.com.au/index.php/about/our-services">women’s safety services</a> that help women wanting to leave abusive relationships to find crisis accommodation and counselling for them and their children. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/09/01/indigenous-over-representation-prison-snapshot-nation">Indigenous over-representation</a> in the justice system is a national disgrace. Governments must commit to extra funds for schemes that mentor Aboriginal young people, in partnership with Indigenous communities, to enhance their life skills and prospects of employment. There must be an emphasis on <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/overcoming-indigenous-disadvantage/2016">children of Indigenous prisoners</a>, too. Indigenous courts, Indigenous-run justice centres and night patrols must continue to be supported.</p>
<p>Governments must lift their funding of community-based strategies that work to enhance the social and mental health of Australian children. This includes <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/criminology-law/griffith-criminology-institute/our-programs-of-research/creating-pathways-to-prevention">programs and practices</a> that have been shown to be effective in reducing child abuse and neglect. The link between abuse and neglect, and the drug and alcohol use of their caregivers, is <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/CJB/cjb33.pdf">undeniable</a> and has been known for decades. Programs that deal with these issues, and with the mental illnesses that are often linked to drug and alcohol abuse, are crucial for crime prevention.</p>
<p>We also need to be vigilant in funding research not only to evaluate the <a href="http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/">cost-effectiveness and durability</a> of the above strategies and commitments, but to prepare for “future crime”: that is, crime for which we are largely unprepared, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/21/crime-rate-online-offences-cybercrime-ons-figures">cybercrime</a>.</p>
<p>The research evidence is clear: with appropriate resources directed at health, housing and capacity-building, we can reduce crime in Australia without the need to expand our prisons, add to police numbers, or increase penalties for those who break the law. The status quo is unsustainable, and we have the evidence that can challenge it. It is time we used it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Criminology Research Council. He is a member of State Council of the Australian Labor Party (SA). </span></em></p>We need to redirect government spending on crime prevention to programs and policies that the research tells us are most effective.Rick Sarre, Professor of Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699092016-12-05T12:48:30Z2016-12-05T12:48:30ZFrom Nickelback to Sesame Street: how music is used to battle crime and fight wars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148616/original/image-20161205-19384-1fh3xmr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usaghumphreys/6034244925/in/photolist-ace5MB-npm5e8-aCkU4F-aCkUgp-aCkU9M-hxUAAt-56bP48-56bNVF-56fZCN-6QppzW-c44XQQ-c44YbS-ace41V-53Y1GU-ace1N8-2mpQFm-ace6jP-7FS86e-acgYCA-ace7sa-acgSEw-acgWz9-ace4J2-ace3AK-7FS7AF-7FS7ce-acgSgQ-ace8jP-7FS73g-7FS7Lc-7HpX6e-7FS7wz-aawWhD-au5CyE-hxUJv6-J3tGb-5yzyye-7ma4cn-7FS8k4-qPPZv-dKkqpF-7FS7ZP-8aujPY-9rq7eH-7mdWVS-7ma4fg-abujoB-5FpPKy-7FS77P-5riu94">usaghumphreys/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A Canadian police force on Prince Edward Island is <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/30/americas/police-canada-nickelback-dui-trnd/">threatening drink drivers with the music of Nickelback</a>. Police in the town of Kensington have said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>On top of a hefty fine, a criminal charge and a year’s driving suspension we will also provide you with a bonus gift of playing the office’s copy of Nickelback in the cruiser on the way to jail. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This might seem an odd form of crime prevention, but the use of music as punishment is a tried and tested method. Other recent examples include Rockdale Council in Sydney, Australia, who in 2006 <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/5047610.stm">used the music of Barry Manilow</a> to prevent young people from loitering outside shops. And in 2009, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jan/21/nation/na-music-punishment21">one US Judge</a>, incensed at young people playing music too loud from their cars in certain neighbourhoods, sentenced them to his Music Immersion Programme. This involved them being both punished and educated by having such songs played to them as the <a href="http://play.barney.com/usa/">Barney</a> theme tune and, yes, more Barry Manilow.</p>
<p>There is of course variation in the types of music different people would consider punishment. When merchant ships reportedly were using Britney Spears’ music in the fight against Somali pirates off the coast of Africa, Steven Jones, of the Security Association for the Maritime Industry, <a href="http://metro.co.uk/2013/10/27/britney-spears-songs-used-to-scare-off-pirates-in-somalia-4163217/#ixzz4RgSRj95A">said</a>: “I’d imagine using Justin Bieber would be against the Geneva Convention.”</p>
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<p>We could all jokingly volunteer “naff” music for inclusion in these punishments and deterrents – but the truth is that the (mis)use of music quite often does breach <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">International Human Rights Conventions</a>, notably Article 5.</p>
<h2>Acoustic bombardment</h2>
<p>Music has long been systematically used a weapon of war. It was famously blasted out of loudspeakers in Nazi concentration camps to drown out sounds of gunfire, which might have led to panic or rebellion. Jolly music was also used as a “welcome” to greet new arrivals at the train station in Treblinka, deceiving them about the true nature of the camp. Official orchestras were a feature of many camps. Prisoners played for the benefit of officers and were treated better than ordinary camp prisoners, many feeling that they owed their survival to <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/01/25/169364174/honoring-our-will-to-live-the-lost-music-of-the-holocaust">being in the orchestra</a>.</p>
<p>Famously, when the former leader of Panama, Manuel Noriega, was taking refuge from US forces at the home of the Papal Nuncio in Panama City, the Americans <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/world/americas/noriega-back-in-panama-for-more-prison-time.html">blasted heavy metal at the opera-loving general</a>. The New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/25/world/fighting-panama-noriega-seeks-asylum-vatican-embassy-his-future-uncertain.html?pagewanted=all">reported</a> that Noriega, exhausted and tormented by the deafening heavy metal music that troops were playing, surrendered on January 4 1990.</p>
<p>During the Iraq war, US troops bombarded the enemy with music, a tactic that was agreed at command level. The choice of music was left up to the soldiers, who constructed sound systems in military vehicles so they could play it. The soldiers overwhelmingly chose rap and heavy metal. One soldier in the film <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0470161/">Soundtrack to War</a>, which is about the use of music by US soldiers in Iraq, says “war itself is heavy metal”.</p>
<h2>Psychological torture</h2>
<p>To some extent, any repetitious noise can be used for harm, but in the cases of the Iraq war and Guantanamo Bay, the music was often selected specifically because it was culturally alien to the enemy – heavy metal and rap, for example. The themes from <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/aljazeeraworld/2012/05/201253072152430549.html">Sesame Street</a> and Barney, symbolic of childhood innocence, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/3042907.stm">were also used to “break” detainees</a>.</p>
<p>British Guantanamo detainee, Binyam Mohamed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2008/dec/10/stop-the-music-torture-initiative">reported</a> the use of music on numerous occasions alongside other torture techniques:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It was pitch black, and no lights on in the rooms for most of the time … They hung me up for two days. My legs had swollen. My wrists and hands had gone numb … There was loud music, Slim Shady and Dr. Dre for 20 days. I heard this nonstop, over and over.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some bands are <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-worthington/a-history-of-music-tortur_b_151109.html">reportedly happy</a> for their music to be used for what they perceived as patriotic purposes, but many more were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jun/19/usa.guantanamo">vigorously opposed</a> their music being used <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6409083/Musicians-anger-at-Guantanamo-Bay-torture.html">for torture</a>. But the use of music has joined sensory deprivation and sexual humiliation as non-lethal “<a href="http://www.sibetrans.com/trans/articulo/152/music-as-torture-music-as-weapon">torture lite</a>” which is used to coerce prisoners into giving up their secrets.</p>
<p>Music, like any noise, can be a source of pain. At high volume, people experience accelerated respiration and heartbeat, spatial disorientation, their intellectual capacity becomes diminished, and they feel nauseous and neurotic. Beyond a certain limit, it can become more than just a nuisance or a means to rid the streets of loitering kids, it can be an immaterial weapon of death.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleanor Peters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Canadian police force on Prince Edward Island is threatening drink drivers with Nickelback – continuing a tried and tested method of punishment.Eleanor Peters, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/530642016-01-14T19:22:26Z2016-01-14T19:22:26ZDo we need more police, or are there better ways to cut crime?<p>Do we have enough police in Australia to manage our security needs? This is an important question because we spend more than <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2015/justice/police-services#key-facts">A$10 billion a year</a> to pay for the police services that we have. Should we spend more?</p>
<p>Let’s start with a little history. We have more police per head of population than ever before. Australia had 129 police officers per 100,000 population a century ago. Twenty years ago the figure was 221 per 100,000. It is now 270. Of the states, South Australia <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2015/justice/police-services/rogs-2015-volumec-chapter6.pdf">tops the list</a> with 314.</p>
<p>So there are more police. But if crime rates are rising, even these extra police numbers will be inadequate to meet the task of keeping us safe. True? No.</p>
<h2>Fact: crime rates are falling</h2>
<p>The fact of the matter is that crime rates are not rising. Over the last 15 years, generally speaking, crime has fallen – dramatically in some cases.</p>
<p><a href="http://aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/rpp/129/rpp129.pdf">Figures</a> show the following percentage changes in police-recorded crime across Australia from 2001 to 2011: fraud down 12%, arson down 14%, criminal damage down 22%, theft down more than 30% and burglaries and robberies down 50%. Even the numbers of homicides, which usually remain relatively stable, decreased by 23%. Car theft was down a staggering 60%, a trend that <a href="http://www.carsafe.com.au/images/stories/pdfs/Annual-Reports/NMVTRC_Annual_Report_2015_FINAL.pdf">continues today</a>.</p>
<p>The only crimes for which police recorded increases during that period were assaults (up 12%), shop theft (up 10%) and sexual assaults (up 3%). However, there is always a suspicion that these numbers often simply reflect levels of confidence in reporting by victims.</p>
<p>The above trends are mirrored by the data emerging from victimisation surveys. These are very useful in helping to eliminate the “dark” figure of crime that bedevils official police data.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) keeps very good victimisation data. The ABS reported in 2015 that the number of recorded victims across Australia decreased for the majority of offence categories between 2013 and 2014. </p>
<p>Robbery had the largest proportional decrease of some 16%. Homicides and car theft are two of the most reliable indicators of the accuracy of victimisation figures, as they rarely suffer from reporting or counting problems. The numbers of homicide and motor vehicle theft victims fell to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4510.0">five-year lows</a>, along with victims of abduction, robbery and unlawful entry with intent.</p>
<h2>So more police, less crime? It’s not that simple</h2>
<p>The next question is whether the high police numbers can take credit for these significant drops in crime. If that were the case, then one could assume that more police on the beat would drive crime down even further. The evidence for this argument, however, is scant. </p>
<p>It is well accepted that a combination of <a href="http://www.bpiepc-ocipep.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/lbrr/ctlg/dtls-en.aspx?d=PS&i=2107775">factors other than police strength</a> can accurately predict crime trends. The correlations between these factors and crime are well known to criminologists. They include education levels, employment levels, income levels, school-leaving rates, the number of families that regularly need crisis assistance, and the heterogeneity of a relevant population. None of these factors is under the influence of police numbers, or indeed police powers.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107979/original/image-20160113-8434-ahqr9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Any evidence that higher imprisonment rates significantly reduce crime is weaker than many people might think.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-221167801/stock-photo-large-prison-area-with-a-tall-watchtower-surrounded-with-fence-and-blue-sky-in-the-background.html?src=8UILlMrRx3lEZ4zMSuQDNA-1-8">shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Various commentators have <a href="http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5">explained the crime drop</a>. The more reliable reasons are as follows: the better economic conditions in the West in the last three decades, better-financed social services, greater emphasis on intelligence-led policing, the removal of lead from petrol, and more affordable and available home alarms and business <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ZmzezeutqRUC&oi=fnd&pg=PA149&dq=%E2%80%98Public-Private+Crime+Prevention+Partnerships&ots=7Lx-4Lcv84&sig=e7qK_SRdaeoTVX9_W3HXLgxPxUQ#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%98Public-Private%20Crime%20Prevention%20Partnerships&f=false">security services</a>. </p>
<p>One could add higher imprisonment rates to the list, but that is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">long bow to draw</a>.</p>
<p>My preferred explanation (with regard to serious assaults at least) is a demographic one. The last of the baby boomers reached 40 years of age a decade ago, and most violent crimes are committed by men aged 18 to 35.</p>
<h2>Is more police a cost-effective response?</h2>
<p>The final question is this: if we are to outlay more than the A$10 billion we spend on policing, what are the opportunity costs? In other words, what has to be cut from government expenditures to cover the increase?</p>
<p>Employment projects, especially for Indigenous Australians, pre-release and <a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-and-punishment-and-rehabilitation-a-smarter-approach-41960">rehabilitation schemes</a>, diversion schemes, enhanced parole supervision, programs to prevent child abuse and neglect, and developmental educational schemes have each been shown to have a positive effect on crime prevention. Should we cut them? </p>
<p>Ironically, if we do, crime will increase and there will be greater pressure on governments to hire more police in response.</p>
<p>I don’t envy governments in setting their budgetary priorities, but some choices are better than others. Police are important, but not sufficient, in the crime-reduction effort. I have enormous faith in their abilities, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we need more of them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the Australian Labor Party, and is on the Board of the International Police Executive Symposium. </span></em></p>Police are important, but not sufficient, in the crime-reduction effort. I have enormous faith in their abilities, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we need more of them.Rick Sarre, Professor of Law, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/441652015-09-09T10:17:24Z2015-09-09T10:17:24ZNew models to predict recidivism could provide better way to deter repeat crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93900/original/image-20150904-14617-87x5dw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is there a better way to predict whether someone once released will return behind bars?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Prison bars via www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the US, a minority of individuals commit the majority of crimes. In fact, about two-thirds of released prisoners <a href="http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986">are arrested</a> again within three years of getting out of jail.</p>
<p>This begs the question: is there a way to predict which prisoners are more likely to become repeat offenders? </p>
<p>Recidivism prediction is important because it has significant applications in terms of allocating social services, policy-making, sentencing, probation and bail. From judges to social workers, all parties involved need to be able to work together and understand the risk posed by various individuals.</p>
<p>And if we can more accurately determine how likely someone who has just been released from prison is to commit another crime within a few years, we could potentially reduce crime rates and better allocate the money we spend on social services. </p>
<h2>A long history of trying to predict recidivism</h2>
<p>The criminal justice system has been using forecasting to make decisions since the 1920s, when parole boards <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2101&context=jclc">used</a> a mixture of factors such as age, race, prior offense history and school grades to determine whether an inmate should be paroled or not. </p>
<p>Much has changed since then, both in terms of the sheer quantity and quality of data at our fingertips and the ability to process all of that information quickly using machine learning methods that can produce accurate predictive models for recidivism. Machine learning methods are a form of artificial intelligence. They are computer algorithms that have the ability to learn over time, or in this case make better predictions as they acquire more data. </p>
<p>While these methods have a long history, there has been controversy as to whether they need to be very complicated with many inputs to be accurate or whether simple yet accurate “rules of thumb” exist for many prediction problems. Judges and prosecutors are less inclined to use a complicated (and incomprehensible) black box predictive model in which they can’t understand how the criminal history variables are used to predict recidivism. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.07810v2.pdf">current work</a> with colleagues Jiaming Zeng and Berk Ustun, we found that simple, transparent yet equally accurate predictive models often do exist for predicting recidivism. Such models would be more usable and defensible for all decision-making parties, and are created by machine-learning methods in a completely automated way using data. </p>
<p>As a data scientist, my aim is to build predictive models that assist people in making decisions, particularly in areas that are critical for the the smooth operation of society such as energy grid reliability, health care and computational criminology. Using statistical models such as those intended to predict recidivism, we can drastically improve the functioning of how we live and work. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93913/original/image-20150904-14632-1w97zvw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Judges want more than just a black box they can’t understand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Black box via www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting a recidivist</h2>
<p>Today most judges are using rudimentary, ad hoc models for predicting whether someone before them is likely to be a recidivist. </p>
<p>Essentially, they use a score sheet during sentencing with a standard set of risk assessment tools. It’s a combination of people making the (manual) choice of which risk factors to include and an ad hoc optimization scheme for determining what score someone receives for each factor. </p>
<p>As a society, we need to do more to optimize these processes. We don’t want to make poor decisions – decisions that literally are often a matter of life and death. We absolutely need to optimize how our social services are allocated to have the most impact in decreasing our recidivism rates, which, as you know from the beginning of this article, are currently abysmal. </p>
<p>To create better scoring systems, we used the largest publicly available data set on recidivism. Our data set was compiled as part of a national study, and contained criminal histories from over 33,700 individuals in 15 states released in the same year. These individuals constituted over two-thirds of the prisoners released nationwide that year. </p>
<p>We found several advantages of our models on these data. First, they are accurate simply because they are based on large amounts of data. Second, they are simple, understandable, accurate and customizable. The models are also small enough that they each fit on an index card. That is, these are not complicated formulas. A judge could calculate the prediction of recidivism for an individual in his or her head, without a computer. They need only to add up the “points” for each risk factor (eg, three points for one risk factor, five points for another factor, etc). </p>
<p>The models are so simple-looking that they appear as if a person made them up, but that’s not how they were developed. In fact, behind the scene is a large data set, a sophisticated machine learning method and a lot of computational time on a powerful computer. </p>
<p>Because they are generated automatically, we were able to build a separate predictive model for each type of crime (violence, property, drugs, etc). Furthermore, the machine learning tools can be applied to data from different local areas, with differing populations; each jurisdiction could create its own models, which could potentially make the recidivism predictions much more accurate. Since the current models in use cannot be customized to the jurisdiction, they are “one size fits all” models, which might not be as relevant for some jurisdictions as much as others. By drilling down to the local level, the tools can become increasingly accurate. </p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>The machine learning models work by assigning points for various factors. If the points add up to above a certain threshold determined by the prisoner’s history, then the individual is likely to commit another crime within three years. </p>
<p>Our basic model used to predict arrest for any offense is a good example. If the individual was younger than 24 at the time of release, two points are assigned (younger people are more likely to commit violent crime). If there are at least five prior arrests, two points are assigned. If the person was over 40 when he or she was first confined, two points are deducted. </p>
<p>When all the points are tallied, if they add up to one or more, then the individual is likely to be arrested within three years. This is a very simple model, but we have found that even when we use state-of-the-art machine learning methods that use all of the features in the database, these methods do not perform any better than our simple model. </p>
<p>The variables and points are determined entirely by the machine learning algorithm applied to the data and not by hand. Some of these models are going to seem obvious to judges or prosecutors, but that’s good – it means these models will bring everyone onto the same page. Hopefully, it will make it more difficult to make a bad decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93911/original/image-20150904-14625-jbxn74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Predicting recidivism doesn’t need to be like the movie Minority Report, in which people are convicted of crimes before they’ve been committed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ww4f/6294541478/in/photolist-aAeaTd-6RRQ4p-2yWpQJ-cnh1qJ-wuU8Hr-2HJ1cy-9P9uk1-9P75B4-9P9Po3-9P7eXx-9P9RCs-9P7jwc-9P9DoA-9Pa1wA-9P9Fo7-2yT5D6-9P73zt-9P9z53-9P9Mz9-8JYGL-9P7gWx-6DmjJt-suEfbW-5Nz8j9-uDENuN-sdeRx9-sbvcFX-rxPQLb-8t59nR-4EU54R-sgEbCw-8BdEgr-pbMx7E-aM1CRD-5uk1U2-bz8Xu6-b463gP-2ukPff-xqVX53-Kocb-51szrt-8Rs2wq-8RoVgc-wuGGbC-6iq4pn-3kx9R-xpqKe7-6Dqc4U-bz8Xk4-a4Az61">Jon Gosier/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some caveats</h2>
<p>That said, there are definitely weaknesses in our approach. In particular, our data set could be improved with more detail about the prisoners. However, since the data we used are publicly available and our software will also be public, people will be able to repeat and build on our work, and to use our code on their own data.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that these models can be helpful or dangerous, depending on how you use them. This isn’t like Minority Report, where you are convicting someone of a specific crime they haven’t committed yet. Rather, these models simply quantify the fact that people who committed more crimes in the past are more likely to run afoul of the law in the future.</p>
<p>However, if the models aren’t used for the right purpose, then there is the risk of inadvertently using them for discriminatory punishment. For instance, you wouldn’t want to use race as a factor for a model that determines sentencing; we don’t want to punish someone longer because of their race. </p>
<p>My team chose not to include any explicit socio-demographic factors, and we specifically excluded race as a variable. We did test how much more accurate the model would be by including race, but we found that it was not particularly useful. The models were almost equally accurate with and without including race as an explicit factor.</p>
<p>There is no reason for people to design models by hand anymore because automated ones can be simpler, more transparent, easier to use and just as accurate. They can ensure that decisions are more reliable and useful, preserving our resources for the people who need them most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cynthia Rudin receives funding from the National Science Foundation, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Philips, Siemens, Wistron, and the US Army. </span></em></p>Two-thirds of released prisoners in the US are arrested again within three years. Here’s how we could change that.Cynthia Rudin, Associate Professor of Statistics, MIT Sloan School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/455352015-08-05T15:45:03Z2015-08-05T15:45:03ZHow to embrace technology without dooming humanity to destruction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90786/original/image-20150804-11977-oom1di.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usairforce/7414657976/sizes/k/">Official U.S. Air Force/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world today is facing some serious global challenges: creating sustainable development in the face of climate change, safeguarding rights and justice, and growing ethical markets, for a start. All of these challenges share some connection with science and technology – some more explicitly than others. </p>
<p>We are currently witnessing a growth in traditional technology – with computers processing data <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/d-wave-smashes-quantum-computing-record-1000-qubit-system-1508387">in new and exciting ways</a>. We’re also seeing the birth of transformative technology, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-modest-proposal-bioengineering-humans-for-global-warming-6446">bioengineering</a>. But the question is not about old or new technology – rather, it is about how they are being used to facilitate or change human behaviour.</p>
<h2>Good tech, bad tech</h2>
<p>Developments in information and communication technology (ICT) are vitally important to help us make better, more informed choices about how we prepare for the future. For instance, <a href="http://www.undp.org/governance/">democratic governance</a> is about being able to articulate contesting views across society and from different parts of the government. The advent of the internet allows us to receive and spread such information. Likewise, security and public safety relies on having good information on risks and their potential threats. Consider, for example, the way police departments in <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/09/microsoft_domain_awareness_system/">New York</a> and <a href="http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/leadership/memphispd/">Memphis</a> have been able to make better use of data to prevent crime.</p>
<p>While science and technology are giving us the tools to improve, they – and the people who use them – are also presenting serious problems. Technology connects us, but it also makes us vulnerable to cyber-attacks. The amount of information that we produce every day through our phones and computers can help shape our environment to cater to us. But it also means that our identities are perhaps more vulnerable than ever before, with smart phones and club cards <a href="http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/11/where-have-you-been-your-smartphones-wi-fi-is-telling-everyone/">tracking our every move</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, in biology, we are able to make amazing gains in physical corrections, repairs, amendments, and augmentations, whether replacing old limbs or growing new ones. But we must also seriously consider the issues around ethics, safety and security. The debate around <a href="http://mbio.asm.org/content/5/4/e01730-14.full">gain of function</a> experiments, which give diseases new properties to help us study them, is a good example. </p>
<h2>Hopes and fears</h2>
<p>To help us grasp the shape and scope of these challenges, the <a href="http://www.millennium-project.org/">Millennium Project</a> – an international think tank – releases an annual <a href="http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html">State of the Future report</a>, which outlines the major hurdles facing humanity over the next 35 years. It illustrates our complicated relationship with science and technology. Just as the beginning of the industrial revolution influenced the underlying themes of <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/84/84-h/84-h.htm">Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein</a>, we too are worried about the unforeseen complications that the latest developments could bring. </p>
<p>The report tells us of the great hopes that synthetic biology will help us write genetic code like we write computer code; about the power of 3D printing to customise and construct smart houses; of the future of artificial intelligence where the human mind and the computer mind meet, rather than conflict.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90779/original/image-20150804-12023-1i9232g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Frankenstein bringing his monster to life.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tom-margie/2070691284/sizes/o/">twm1340/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But at the same time, the authors of the report – Jerome Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu and their team – express fears that there is a great chance we could be outstripped in pace by the evolution of scientific and technological development. The authors suggest that we seek out human-friendly control systems, since advances in these fields mean that lone individuals could make and deploy weapons of mass destruction. </p>
<p>There are two concerns here: one to do with agency, the other relating to structures. Individuals have the potential to use scientific and technological advances to cause harm. This is a growing problem, as science and technology continues to degrade what Max Weber referred to as the state’s “<a href="https://www.boundless.com/sociology/textbooks/boundless-sociology-textbook/government-15/politics-power-and-authority-112/authority-and-legitimate-violence-621-8983/">monopoly on violence</a>”.</p>
<p>To reduce the risks associated with agency, we will rely on structures that encourage good behaviour, such as systems for justice, education and the provision of basic necessities for life. </p>
<p>But it is not clear how we will arrive at such structures, and where the responsibility to develop them will fall; whether it’s to regions, states or international organisations. This is especially pressing, as many states have either foregone a welfare system, or are <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dutch-king-willemalexander-declares-the-end-of-the-welfare-state-8822421.html">in the process of destroying</a> it. It’s unclear where education and training come in, or how regulatory control is to work across so many local, national, societal, and commercial boundaries. </p>
<h2>An ethical approach?</h2>
<p>Whether or not our global society is outstripped by science and technology largely depends on us. And this is part of the problem, as William Nordhaus warned us as early as 1982, in <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1802336?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">his work on the Global Commons</a>. The report calls for an ethical approach to creating systems, forms of information, and models of control that would allow us to engage with science and technology as it develops. </p>
<p>This means embedding ethical considerations into the way we think about the future. The authors want a larger discussion on global ethics, such as that we have seen rooted in the work done by the <a href="http://www.iso.org/iso/home/about.htm">International Organisation for Standardisation</a> – the world’s largest developer of voluntary international standards.</p>
<p>Ultimately, where we end up in relation to science and technology is a matter of coming to terms with how we interact with these developments. Until we do so, a safe and prosperous world may elude us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David J Galbreath receives funding from the AHRC and ESRC. He is the Director of the Bath Centre for War and Technology</span></em></p>A new report on the future of humanity explains what we really need to be worrying about over the next 35 years.David J Galbreath, Professor of International Security, Director of Centre for War and Technology, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/419602015-06-15T20:19:36Z2015-06-15T20:19:36ZCrime and punishment and rehabilitation: a smarter approach<p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/beyond-prison">Beyond Prison</a> series, which examines better ways to reduce re-offending, following the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-imprisonment">State of Imprisonment</a> series.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Although criminal justice agencies in Australia have, in recent years, adopted an increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/prisons-policy-is-turning-australia-into-the-second-nation-of-captives-38842">“get tough” approach</a>, responses to crime that rely on punishment alone have failed to make our communities <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">safer</a>. Instead, they have produced an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-state-of-imprisonment-in-australia-its-time-to-take-stock-38902">expanding prison system</a>. This has the potential to <a href="http://www.smartjustice.org.au/cb_pages/files/SMART_MorePrisons%20Final%20Revised%202014.pdf">do more harm than good</a> and places considerable strain on government budgets.</p>
<p>Increasing prison sentences <a href="https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/publications/does-imprisonment-deter">does little to deter</a> criminal behaviour. Longer sentences are associated with higher rates of re-offending. When prisoners return to their communities, as the vast majority inevitably do, the problems multiply. </p>
<h2>Exposing the limitations of punishment</h2>
<p>In this context, it becomes important to think carefully about public policy responses that aim to punish and deter offenders. Psychologists have been <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25462507">studying punishment</a> under well-controlled laboratory conditions with both animals and humans for nearly 100 years. Its effectiveness in promoting short-term behavioural change, or even in suppressing negative behaviour, depends on rather specific conditions being in place.</p>
<p>For punishment to work it has to be predictable. Punishment also has to be applied at maximum intensity to work, or else tolerance and temporary effects result. Yet applying very intense levels of punishment for many offences goes against our sense of justice and fairness. </p>
<p>The threat of punishment, no matter how severe, will not deter anyone who believes they can get away with it. It will also not deter those who are too overcome by emotion or <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-mental-health-care-in-prisons-must-begin-and-end-in-the-community-40011">disordered thinking</a> to care about the consequences of their behaviour. </p>
<p>Punishment also has to be immediate. Delayed punishment provides opportunities for other behaviours to be reinforced. In reality, it often takes months – if not years – for someone to be apprehended, appear in court and be sentenced. </p>
<h2>Working towards more effective rehabilitation</h2>
<p>Many of the conditions required for punishment to be effective will not exist in any justice system. It follows that policies and programmes that focus on rehabilitating offenders will have a greater chance of success in preventing crime and improving community safety. </p>
<p>The origins of offender rehabilitation in Australia can be traced back to the early
penal colonies and, in particular, to <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=PTIKAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA3&dq=convict&lr=&as_brr=1&ei=Clz7SqKcE5WelQTp47ncDg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">the work</a> of <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/maconochie-alexander-2417">Alexander Maconochie</a>, a prison governor on Norfolk Island in 1840. Maconochie introduced the idea of
indeterminate rather than fixed sentences, implemented a system of rehabilitation in which good behaviour counted towards prisoners’ early release, and advocated a system of aftercare and community resettlement. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=934&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=934&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83775/original/image-20150603-2328-du7abo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=934&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Much more is known about punishment and rehabilitation than when John Howard first gave evidence to a House of Commons committee in 1774.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Howard_(prison_reformer)#/media/File:John_Howard_by_Mather_Brown.jpg">Wikimedia Commons/John Howard by Mather Brown (1789)</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Maconochie’s ideas built on those of the great social reformers of 18th-century Britain, notably Quakers such as <a href="http://www.howardleague.org/johnhoward/">John Howard</a> and <a href="http://www.howardleague.org/elizabethfry/">Elizabeth Fry</a>. They were among the first to try to change prisons from what they called “institutions of deep despair and cruel punishment” to places that were more humane and had the potential to reform prisoners’ lives. </p>
<p>These days, though, offender rehabilitation is often thought about in terms of psychological treatment. We can chart the rise of current programmes according to the broad traditions of <a href="http://psychcentral.com/lib/psychodynamic-therapy/">psychodynamic psychotherapy</a>, behaviour modification and <a href="http://psychcentral.com/lib/about-behavior-therapy/">behaviour therapy</a> and, more recently, the <a href="http://www.aacbt.org/viewStory/WHAT+IS+CBT%3F">cognitive-behavioural</a> and <a href="http://psychcentral.com/lib/about-cognitive-psychotherapy/">cognitive approaches</a> that characterise contemporary practice. </p>
<p>The earliest therapeutic work in the psychoanalytic tradition saw delinquent behaviour as the product of a failure in psychological development. It was thought this could be addressed through gaining insight into the causes of offending. A wide range of group and milieu therapies were developed for use with offenders, including <a href="http://psychcentral.com/lib/about-group-therapy/">group counselling</a> and psychodrama. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, more behavioural methods – such as <a href="http://www.minddisorders.com/Py-Z/Token-economy-system.html">token economies</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingency_management">contingency management</a> programmes and “time out” – replaced psychotherapy.</p>
<p>There are good grounds to develop standardised incentive models in Australia’s prisons. Community-style therapeutic programmes for prisoners with substance use problems in Victoria, NSW and the ACT represent substantial advances in practice. </p>
<p>These programmes take advantage of the significant therapeutic opportunities that arise by looking closely at prisoners’ social functioning and day-to-day interactions. They actively encourage offenders to assume responsibility not only for their own behaviour, but for that of others. </p>
<p>However, rehabilitation today is almost always associated with cognitive-behavioural therapy. This targets a relatively narrow range of crime-producing (or “criminogenic”) needs, including pro-criminal attitudes – those thoughts, values and sentiments that support criminal conduct. Programmes also dedicate a lot of time to trying to change personality traits, such as low self-control, hostility, pleasure- or thrill-seeking and lack of empathy. </p>
<p>Not everyone can be successfully treated. Substantial evidence now exists, though, to suggest that this type of approach does produce socially significant reductions in re-offending. </p>
<h2>Essential steps in making corrections policy work</h2>
<p>The challenges lie in ensuring that the right programmes are delivered to the right people at the right time. </p>
<p>First, it is important that low-risk offenders have minimal contact with higher-risk offenders. Extended contact is only likely to increase their risk of recidivism. This has implications for prisoner case management, prison design and for the courts. </p>
<p>Courts have the power to divert low-risk offenders from prison and thus minimise contact with more entrenched offenders. Related to this is the need to develop effective systems of community-based rehabilitation, leaving prisons for the most dangerous and highest-risk offenders.</p>
<p>Second, concerted efforts are required to develop innovative programmes for those who identify with Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander cultural backgrounds. They are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-state-of-imprisonment-in-australia-its-time-to-take-stock-38902">grossly over-represented</a> across all levels of the criminal justice system.</p>
<p>Third, staff need to be properly selected, trained, supervised and resourced to deliver the highest-quality rehabilitation services to the most complex and challenging people. </p>
<p>Finally, it is important to demonstrate that programmes actually make offenders better, not worse. The types of evaluation that are needed to attribute positive change to programme completion are complex, require large numbers of participants and cross-jurisdictional collaboration. A national approach to programme evaluation is sorely needed. </p>
<p>This is not to suggest that criminal behaviour shouldn’t be punished – only that we should not rely on punishment by itself to change behaviour. We need to create a true system of rehabilitation that can enhance the corrective impact of
punishment-based approaches. </p>
<p>It also doesn’t mean that punishment never works. It may work reasonably well with some people – perhaps those who are future-oriented, have good self-monitoring and regulation skills, and who can make the connection between their behaviour and negative consequences months later. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, many people in prison simply aren’t like this. The challenge, then, is two-fold: to find ways to make punishment more effective and to tackle the causes of offending through high-quality rehabilitation.</p>
<p>Correctional services often get little credit for their efforts. They are widely criticised when things go wrong. However, their efforts to rehabilitate offenders are not only sensible, but also cost-efficient and practical.</p>
<p>We need to support efforts to create a true system of rehabilitation. Such a system will be comprehensive, coherent and internally consistent in applying evidence-based practice at all levels.</p>
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<p><em>This article is based on the author’s keynote presentation to the <a href="https://groups.psychology.org.au/cfp/2015conference/">2015 APS College of Forensic Psychologists Conference</a> in Sydney.</em></p>
<p><em>You can read other articles in the Beyond Prison series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/beyond-prison">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Day does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Approaches to crime that rely on punitive methods have proved to be ineffective and counter-productive. Rehabilitation programmes not only prevent crime, but are cost-effective and practical.Andrew Day, Professor of Psychology; Member of the Strategic Research Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.