tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/crowd-control-3411/articlesCrowd control – The Conversation2022-10-03T04:06:31Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1917562022-10-03T04:06:31Z2022-10-03T04:06:31ZOne of the worst stadium tragedies in history: an expert explains what led to the soccer stampede in Indonesia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487691/original/file-20221003-59229-c8p206.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C520%2C5919%2C3368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yudha Prabowo/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At least 125 soccer fans have died in Indonesia, and more than 300 have been injured, in what is being reported as one of the worst sports stadium tragedies in history. </p>
<p>The disaster happened on Saturday night at the Kanjuruhan stadium in Malang, East Java. Up to 3,000 fans <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/indonesia-football-fans-killed-east-java-arema-malang">reportedly</a> streamed onto the pitch following a Premier League game in which Persebaya Surabaya defeated Javanese club Arema 3-2.</p>
<p>Disappointed with the loss, Arema supporters threw bottles and other objects at players and officials before storming the pitch – which eventually led to a deadly stampede. Video footage shows authorities firing tear gas, and armed with batons and shields as they chased fans in an effort to restore order.</p>
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<p>I’m an expert on crowd safety, with a specific focus on how to boost safety at large events, including sporting tournaments. Like most tragedies of this nature, the events in Malang appear to tie into a common thread. </p>
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
<p>News outlets have reported Saturday’s event was filled beyond capacity. According to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/indonesia-football-fans-killed-east-java-arema-malang">The Guardian</a>, Indonesia’s chief security minister said 42,000 tickets had been issued for a stadium that holds a maximum of 38,000.</p>
<p>In such a densely packed venue, police’s decision to use tear gas would have only escalated an already confusing and chaotic situation. </p>
<p>Also, the Kanjuruhan stadium only has one exit (which is also the entry). In competitive sporting environments, crowds already have heightened emotions. So it’s not difficult to see how a frenzied crowd rushing through a single exit could lead to death and injury. </p>
<p>These lessons have been learnt previously with the 1989 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_disaster">Hillsborough</a> disaster and the 2010 Love Parade <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_disaster">disaster</a> (to name a few) – where a combination of police actions, poor communication, and poor access and egress for patrons has ended in tragedy.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Officers examine a damaged police vehicle in a soccer stadium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487693/original/file-20221003-39604-3eqszv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Cars were destroyed and torched amid the chaos, which local reports say spilled over to outside the stadium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yudha Prabowo/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Could this tragedy have been avoided?</h2>
<p>Yes – and a few techniques can be used to ensure it does not happen again. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://vuir.vu.edu.au/37132/3/event%20design%20in%20outdoor%20music%20festival.pdft*">research</a> has shown lighting up a stadium to let the audience know the show is over can help move them out in an orderly fashion. Audiences also like to leave a venue the same way they came in, so all exits should be open, accessible and well-lit.</p>
<p>Beyond this, Indonesia’s football crowds are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/redirects/backstory/television/2019-02-24/david-lipson-reporting-on-indonesian-soccer-rivalries-and-riots/10837748">well-known</a> for their excitability. So the risk of crowds getting out of hand should be managed <em>pre-emptively</em>. </p>
<p>One way to do this would be to separate spectators into different zones – a technique already used in World Cup events. This can reduce tensions in the stadium by reducing the likelihood of fans from different teams encountering each other. </p>
<p>Police can also form a peaceful barrier around the oval towards the end of a game, to signal to the crowd they are there to manage the situation. Importantly, they do not need to be armed. In the UK, “soft policing” is used for crowd management with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jip.1359">great success</a>.</p>
<p>And having officers wear baseball caps and hoodies instead of riot gear (as was the case in Malang) has been shown to soften the crowd’s response, and allow police to walk through and break up small skirmishes before they escalate.</p>
<h2>The use of tear gas</h2>
<p>Soccer’s world governing body FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association) specifies in its safety regulations no firearms or “crowd control gas” should be carried or used by stewards or police. </p>
<p>The use of tear gas irritates the eyes and excites the pain receptors, which can lead to panic. In Malang, the use of tear gas in an already emotionally heightened situation created further panic and led to a crush.</p>
<p>Also, while most people sprayed with tear gas recover, there is <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/tear-gas-is-so-often-abused-it-should-be-banned-researchers-argue">risk of</a> long-term health consequences for those exposed to large doses and people with preexisting medical conditions. </p>
<p>The use of the gas was a poor decision and likely worsened the situation. FIFA president Gianni Infantino called the events “a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension”.</p>
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<h2>Indonesia’s last soccer tragedy?</h2>
<p>In 1995, researcher and former UK policeman Alexander Berlonghi <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/092575359400033Y">argued</a> for the importance of understanding crowds to ensure “competent and effective action” when managing them.</p>
<p>He said without understanding the nuances of a crowd’s behaviour, disastrous mistakes can happen in planning and crowd control. More than two decades later, we are still seeing the same mistakes happening, and leading to a loss of life. </p>
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<p>In the aftermath of yet another crowd tragedy, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo said authorities must thoroughly evaluate security at matches, adding that he hoped this would be “the last soccer tragedy in the nation”. </p>
<p>Violence is common at soccer games in the country, with spectators reportedly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/redirects/backstory/television/2019-02-24/david-lipson-reporting-on-indonesian-soccer-rivalries-and-riots/10837748">beating up</a> rivals if they are recognised as a fan from another team.</p>
<p>Moving forward, there should be a focus on developing pre-emptive harm reduction strategies, and ensuring police are adequately trained to handle such events. There is also an urgent need to review the overall soccer culture in Indonesia. </p>
<p>If history is anything to go by, authorities will have to take drastic steps to make sure Saturday’s events are never repeated.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/panic-horror-and-chaos-what-went-wrong-at-the-champions-league-final-and-what-needs-to-be-done-to-make-football-safer-184182">Panic, horror and chaos: what went wrong at the Champions League final – and what needs to be done to make football safer</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Hutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturday’s soccer match was afflicted by a deadly cocktail of a stadium packed to the brim, violent fans and the use of tear gas by police. Here’s how the disaster could have been avoided.Alison Hutton, Professor, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885582022-08-23T15:40:24Z2022-08-23T15:40:24ZCanada could have its own Fyre Festival fiasco if it doesn’t amp up event regulations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479214/original/file-20220815-26-el6yht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5734%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The last few decades have reminded us just how deadly events can be when proper risk management measures are not in place. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Danny Howe/Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the spring of 2017, the public spectacle over the now infamous <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46904445">Fyre Festival</a> seemingly <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/fyre-fest-tweets">broke the Internet</a>. </p>
<p>Since then, several <a href="https://www.netflix.com/ca/title/81035279">movies</a> and dozens of <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/06/fyre-festival-billy-mcfarland-millennial-marketing-fiasco">articles</a> have recounted the story of the most hyped up festival in history that never happened. </p>
<p>The main event promoter, fraudster and con artist <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2022/05/19/fyre-festival-billy-mcfarland-released-federal-prison/9835663002/">Billy McFarland</a>, sold thousands of young people around the world on the dream of a luxurious, VIP festival on an exclusive Caribbean island <a href="https://www.hulu.com/movie/fyre-fraud-e47078f3-1c0e-49a8-9da9-c571a7a20fec">that never existed</a>. </p>
<p>What if I told you that in Canada you too could find yourself at the next Fyre-like Festival? You might unknowingly purchase a ticket, or worse, have your physical safety be put at risk by attending an event. </p>
<h2>Festivals and risk management</h2>
<p>Live events are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.03.007">social constructs where attendees attach meaning to their experiences</a>. While these events are inherently full of risks, it isn’t the job of the general public <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429291296">to conduct a risk analysis</a>. </p>
<p>People often assume event organizers have their best interests at heart — and most of them do — however just like many businesses, organizers often operate on a tight budget and sometimes cut corners leading to disastrous results.</p>
<p>The last few decades have reminded us just how deadly events can be when proper risk management measures are not in place. </p>
<p>In 2010, the Love Parade music festival in Germany saw <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/fam.2214">21 people die after being crushed in the crowd</a> with over 500 people sustaining injuries. Organizers were blamed for negligence in failing to understand the need to anticipate and control crowd dynamics. </p>
<p>In 2017, an Islamic extremist suicide bomber killed 23 people and wounded 1,017 at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester. A <a href="https://manchesterarenainquiry.org.uk/report-volume-one#2">public inquiry</a> revealed that the arena management took a complacent and lax approach to implementing recommended security risk management solutions. </p>
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<img alt="A police office walks in front of two men dressed in blue with face masks on" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479212/original/file-20220815-14587-uvsojl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Forensic officers investigate the scene at Manchester Arena the day after a suicide bomber killed 23 people at an Ariana Grande concert.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)</span></span>
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<p>Lastly, in November 2021, 10 people died from crowd crushing injuries with dozens more injured at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/dec/16/astroworld-festival-deaths-ruled-accidental">Astroworld Music Festival</a>. Similar to the Love Parade, organizers <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/us/astroworld-festival-operations-plan/index.html">failed to account for the dangers of crowd dynamics</a> and created a concert space which made attendees physically vulnerable to being crushed. </p>
<p>Within the last few weeks Canada has seen its own share of mishaps at live events. Montréal’s Pride parade was <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/pride-cancellation-staffing-1.6544535">cancelled last minute</a> over a glaring oversight of simply not hiring any security for the event. In Ontario, both the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/music-festival-chaos-in-ontario-leads-to-calls-for-refunds">Kingston Music Festival and Kultureland</a> were marred with disorganization, no-show of scheduled artists and fraudulent representation of a VIP experience. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1556426042658721792">crowd stormed the flimsy constructed fence</a> at Kingston Music Festival, while Kultureland event organizers <a href="https://www.narcity.com/toronto/toronto-kultureland-compared-to-fyre-festival-it-looked-like-a-mess-photos">changed the location of the venue</a> two hours before doors opened.</p>
<h2>Lack of professionalism and regulation</h2>
<p>Let’s address the first problem: <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/cog/em/2005/00000009/00000004/art00002">lack of professionalism</a>. Unlike doctors, lawyers and engineers who have regulatory bodies that grant certification and can discipline their members for wrongdoings, there is no such equivalent organization for event organizers. </p>
<p>While some organizations exist to serve various categories of events (like <a href="https://ileahub.com/">International Live Events Association</a> or <a href="https://www.mpi.org/">Meeting Planners International</a>), they are all voluntary and you are not required to be a member to organize a public event. </p>
<p>Sadly convicted criminals like McFarland looking to scam attendees and potential sponsors could organize an event in Canada tomorrow. And nobody is doing background checks as a condition of event approval. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A trailer for Netflix’s <em>FYRE: The Greatest Party That Never Happened</em></span></figcaption>
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<p>This leads us to the second issue: lack of regulation of events. My doctoral thesis examined the lack of security risk management framework within the Canadian live events industry. </p>
<p>I compared the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43243-4">national security framework between Canada and Australia</a> for hosting public events and, surprisingly, even though Canada has more <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2020001/article/00010-eng.htm">gun violence</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadas-exclusion-from-three-eyes-only-confirms-what-was-already-the/">less counter-terrorism capabilities</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43243-4_4">weaker national security laws</a> than Australia, Australia has stronger regulation for its live event sector than Canada. </p>
<p>For example, large Australian cities required organizers to submit applications on average six months before their event was scheduled. In Canada, the average was less then four months suggesting less due diligence in examining risks. </p>
<p>Australian authorities also tend to stress risk management features within their event application forms (like proactive measures) while the Canadian application stressed emergency management requirements (like reactive measures). New South Wales in Australia has even taken an additional step of requiring <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-27/high-risk-festivals-in-nsw-face-new-laws-from-friday/10832736">special licensing for “high risk” music festivals</a>. </p>
<p>It is unlikely that the unprofessional McFarland’s of the world will stop organizing fraud events nor will Canadian cities increase regulations for the industry anytime soon. Until then, “buyer beware,” do your research and due diligence and avoid being an unwitting attendee at the next Fyre Festival.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People assume event organizers have their best interests at heart, but just like many businesses, organizers often operate on a tight budget and sometimes corners get cut creating disastrous results.Sean Spence, Doctorate Student in Security Risk Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1774422022-02-20T19:13:43Z2022-02-20T19:13:43ZWhat’s an LRAD? Explaining the ‘sonic weapons’ police use for crowd control and communication<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447236/original/file-20220218-17-14cb5yy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C1985%2C1407&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At vaccine mandate protests in Canberra last week, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-18/coronacheck-sonic-weapons-lrad-police-canberra-protests/100839612">police used powerful loud-hailing devices</a> called Long-Range Acoustic Devices (LRADs) to address protesters. </p>
<p>While some protesters claimed they were injured by the “sonic weapon”, those reports are inconsistent with what an LRAD can really do. </p>
<p>However, the claims highlight the importance of understanding new policing and crowd-control technologies such as LRADs, and how they are used.</p>
<h2>What’s an LRAD?</h2>
<p>The LRAD is device that can put out a highly directional “beam” of incredibly loud sound, up to 160 decibels (dB).</p>
<p>To understand how loud 160dB is, it’s important to understand that volume, or “sound pressure level” (SPL), is not a linear measure: an increase of 10dB actually corresponds to a tenfold increase in SPL. A 20dB increase would be a 100-fold increase in SPL. </p>
<p>As a rough reference, standing directly behind a jet engine as it takes off is between 130-140dB, and a nearby gunshot rates at approximately 150db. Anything over 140dB will cause pain for most people, but even sounds over 120dB can cause permanent hearing damage from even short periods of exposure.</p>
<h2>The history of the LRAD</h2>
<p>The origin of the LRAD can be traced to an event in October 2000, when the USS Cole, an American guided missile destroyer, was <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/uss-cole-bombing">bombed by a small boat loaded with explosives</a> in a terrorist attack.</p>
<p>As the small vessel approached, naval personnel on board the USS Cole
were unable to successfully hail it. By the time they were confident their messages could be heard, it was too late.</p>
<p>This incident resulted in numerous changes in naval policy, and it also <a href="https://genasys.com/lrad-2/maritime/">led to the creation of the LRAD</a>. Since that time, the technology has proliferated, aided by a <a href="https://genasys.com/support/grants-funding/">dedicated effort</a> from its creators to make the item a staple device for communication and increasingly for crowd control in military and civil settings. </p>
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<p>The LRAD’s siren is one of its main deterrents. It is specially designed to be weighted to transmit sound loaded in the frequency range where human hearing is most sensitive, <a href="https://www.gcaudio.com/tips-tricks/decibel-loudness-comparison-chart/">roughly 2,000–4,000 Hertz</a>. This design simultaneously ensures maximum discomfort for the target subject and maximum efficiency of the device itself.</p>
<p>What makes the power of the LRAD significant is its capacity to cause long-term physiological damage to the body. In September 2009 a US woman named <a href="https://www.aclupa.org/en/press-releases/city-pittsburgh-settles-g-20-lawsuits">Karen Piper suffered permanent hearing damage</a> when she was accidentally caught within an extended period of loud emissions from an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSMyY3_dmrM">LRAD operator</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voices-hearts-and-hands-how-the-powerful-sounds-of-protest-have-changed-over-time-140192">Voices, hearts and hands – how the powerful sounds of protest have changed over time</a>
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<p>This resulted in a successful lawsuit against the City of Pittsburgh that was significant and historic as it recognised that sound can be weaponised, and cause lasting bodily harm. </p>
<h2>LRADs in Australia</h2>
<p>Until very recently, the use of the LRAD in public settings in Australia has been largely nonexistent. Most use by police forces in Australia has been limited to disaster communication and for communication during events such as hostage situations. </p>
<p>In 2020, however, this pattern of usage began to shift. In June 2020, during the Black Lives Matters protests in New South Wales, <a href="https://twitter.com/_rockrit/status/1271414453964140550">police deployed the LRAD</a>, in a move that significantly shifted the way the technology could be used in Australia.</p>
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<p>Most recently, in response to the protesters gathered in Canberra and assembled on Parliament House’s lawn earlier this month, the LRAD was again deployed. In this case, it was used as a “loud hailer” for voice messages to be passed to those assembled for the vaccine mandate protests. It’s unclear exactly how loud the messages were, but there’s no evidence the devices were used in “siren mode”.</p>
<p>After its use, there were a series of posts and reports on <a href="https://twitter.com/CelerySorbet/status/1493467908961611777">various outlets</a> regarding purported injuries from the use of the device. These speculative injuries are in no way consistent with how the device operates, or how it is reported to have been used. </p>
<p>There is no question that if used to its full potential, the LRAD can cause significant damage to auditory nerves. However, unlike what the protesters reported, beyond the auditory system, the device does not harm the body. </p>
<h2>Invisible weapons</h2>
<p>Many reports seem to conflate the LRAD, sometimes called a “sound cannon”, with other devices for crowd control such as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzG4oEutPbA">the Active Denial System</a>. Rather than sound, this uses millimetre-wave radiation to cause the nerve receptors in the upper layer of skin to feel an incredible heat via <a href="https://electronicscoach.com/dielectric-heating.html">dielectric heating</a>.</p>
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<p>A quick scan of coverage and social media following the use of LRAD this past week reveals a lot of anxiety about its use in public settings. There is also plenty of misinformation and disinformation circulating about how it operates and what the LRAD technology is actually capable of doing. </p>
<p>More sound and energy-based control devices are on their way – one recent invention is the “speech jamming” <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a37386388/navy-invented-a-device-to-prevent-people-from-talking/">Acoustic Hailing And Disruption (AHAD)</a> device. It’s important to recognise the actual implications of these technologies, and to talk about how, when and where they are to be used.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lawrence English does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Police do use ‘sound cannons’ at protests – but it’s unlikely they’re responsible for the injuries claimed by some protestors.Lawrence English, Adjunct Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1713972021-11-08T07:30:39Z2021-11-08T07:30:39ZAstroworld tragedy: here’s how concert organisers can prevent big crowds turning deadly<p>A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/astroworld-crowd-crush-deaths-travis-scott-kylie-jenner/100602042">fatal crowd surge</a> during a performance by US rapper Travis Scott on Friday night has become one of the deadliest live music incidents in <a href="https://theconversation.com/carnage-at-ariana-grande-concert-in-manchester-a-suspected-terrorist-attack-78187">recent years</a>. Crowd crushes during the Houston show, which was part of the Astroworld Music Festival, led to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/astroworld-festival-victims.html">eight deaths and dozens of injuries</a>. </p>
<p>The incident is still being investigated, with criminal investigations also underway. How does such catastrophe emerge in a space where people are supposed to be enjoying themselves? </p>
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<p>I have been working in the area of crowd safety for several years. My expertise focuses on ways of boosting safety at large events such as Schoolies, outdoor music festivals and sporting tournaments. Based on reports, it seems several factors — compounded by mismanagement — led to an environment that was not conducive to what we call “cooperative crowding”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-sound-of-fear-65230">Friday essay: the sound of fear</a>
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<h2>An unsettled start</h2>
<p>In a successfully managed event, organisers will create an atmosphere in which people are relaxed and feel part of a collective. Reports of early pushing and shoving at Scott’s show are a bad sign. </p>
<p>Adding to this, several witnesses reported they were unable to persuade event organisers to take action once the disaster was unfolding. It may be the music was too loud, although such details won’t be known until investigations finish. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/06/us/travis-scott-crowd-surge.html">According to the New York Times</a> and several other outlets, Scott’s show continued for 40 minutes after city officials reported on the “mass casualty event” — with the show finishing just half an hour earlier than planned.</p>
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<h2>It’s all about event control</h2>
<p>Event managers will often turn the lights up, or play music with a slower tempo, to help tame a rowdy audience. Lighting conditions and music are both important <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/public-health-for-mass-gatherings-key-considerations">psychosocial considerations</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, there are several ways organisers and performers on stage can attempt to settle a crowd — even among audiences of high-intensity musical acts.</p>
<p>For instance, German heavy-metal band Rammstein can attract intense and sometimes aggressive crowds. When the band played the 2011 Big Day Out festival in Sydney, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3727/152599518X15346132863157">managers put on a pyrotechnic display</a> and ambient music between sets to helps shift and control the crowd’s mood. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Rammstein played in Sydney in 2001 for the Big Day Out music festival.</span></figcaption>
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<p>It’s about knowing your audience and the environment they are likely to create. The <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263332870_Developments_in_the_real-time_evaluation_of_audience_behaviour_at_planned_events">genre will determine the demographic</a> and the expectation of the crowd’s behaviour. If it’s expected a particular show will attract a high-energy demographic, this needs to be prepared for in advance. Effective crowd control is preemptive, not reactive. </p>
<p>At music festivals, the acts in the lineup can also have a direct influence on the audience’s behaviour. Festival-goers can be persuaded to participate in activities and behaviours at the performer(s) request, abandoning safety restrictions put in place by event management. </p>
<p>As such, performers can create a calming environment through their interaction with the audience and have a positive influence on the crowd.</p>
<h2>What measures are in place?</h2>
<p>Despite widespread coverage of the Astroworld incident, the reality is that deadly crowd surges are not common. Australia’s most recent crowd-related music festival fatality was during a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/doublej/music-reads/features/how-the-big-day-out-lost-its-innocence/11606956">Limp Bizkit performance</a>, during the Big Day Out event in 2001.</p>
<p>On the whole, event managers put a lot of work into making sure crowds are looked after. Investment in crowd care can come through venue “chill-out spaces”, and granting different levels of access such as ground level versus stalls, or VIP seating. This is because events both in Australia and internationally are <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/tools-and-resources/event-starter-guide/risk-assessment-and-risk-management/">heavily</a> <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1959/manual-12-safe-and-healthy-mass-gatherings.pdf">legislated</a>. </p>
<p>On-the-ground security guards matter a lot, as they help ensure the crowd is sufficiently spread out and safe. The layout and design of the venue is also crucial, and the space should be able to handle the expected number of attendees. </p>
<p>The 2010 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_disaster">Love Parade disaster</a> in Germany is one example of a chaotic crowd surge in which there were several systemic issues. The events communications system went down and there was only only one entry and exit – a catastrophic situation that <a href="https://epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjds7">culminated</a> in 21 deaths in a crush inside a tunnel.</p>
<p>Closer to home, in 2016 attendees at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-31/falls-festival-stampede-leaves-80-injured/8155392">Falls Festival</a> had to rush from one stage to another, which resulted in about 80 people being injured, including 20 hospital admissions. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are plenty of well-organised events that manage to accommodate hundreds of thousands of people, such as the <a href="https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/how-many-people-attend-glastonbury-4166109">Glastonbury festival</a>. </p>
<h2>What can I do in this situation?</h2>
<p>As concerts and shows start to resume, you may wonder how you can stay safe in a volatile crowd. The reality is, there is not much someone can do if they find themselves stuck deep in a dense mosh pit which is out of control, and the risk in this scenario is great. </p>
<p>The best way to avoid danger is to stay on the fringes, well away from the most congested sections of the crowd. If you have concert plans, ask yourself: what kind of people might I expect? Will people be drinking? Will it be family-friendly? Common sense will go a long way. </p>
<p>If, despite your planning, you find yourself in a crowd situation where you don’t feel safe, you should immediately report to security if you can. If you’re near the stage, you might also be able to get the performer’s attention. The performer has lot of power and, as several incidents in the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/placebo-stops-newcastle-gig-to-kick-out-fighting-crowd-members-20170913-gygauy.html">past have shown us</a>, they can shut things down until the crowd starts to cooperate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/computing-the-chances-of-olympic-crowd-chaos-8066">Computing the chances of Olympic crowd chaos</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Hutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Investigations are being conducted to figure out what led to the death of eight people during a crowd surge at Travis Scott’s show.Alison Hutton, Professor , University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1401922020-06-10T03:36:35Z2020-06-10T03:36:35ZVoices, hearts and hands – how the powerful sounds of protest have changed over time<p>Protest has, by default, always been aligned with sound. </p>
<p>It is an action concerned with the amplification of a message – wanting to make sure it is heard. </p>
<p>Over the past 50 years, protesters’ voices have found power in unison. But activists and onlookers have increasingly been exposed to new sounds – many of which accompany “non-lethal” or “less lethal” weapons that aim to shatter rather than gather the crowd. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-cant-breathe-australia-must-look-in-the-mirror-to-see-our-own-deaths-in-custody-139848">'I can't breathe!' Australia must look in the mirror to see our own deaths in custody</a>
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<h2>Raise your voice</h2>
<p>Call and response chants, common to street activism, are thought to have their origins in <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/harry-belafonte-and-the-social-power-of-song">work songs</a>. The Occupy Movement makes use of a technique dubbed <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/10/06/141109428/the-nation-we-are-all-human-microphones">the human microphone</a> – to keep the crowd on-message. In urban environments, chants become further amplified as they <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=eMA7DwAAQBAJ&lpg=PA19&ots=y5dgunONyR&dq=sound%20bounces%20off%20buildings%20in%20cities&pg=PA19#v=onepage&q=sound%20bounces%20off%20buildings%20in%20cities&f=false">bounce off buildings</a> and hard surfaces. </p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/06/images-worldwide-protest-movement/612811/">thousands upon thousands of protestors</a> worldwide are saying Black Lives Matter very loudly. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">“I can’t breathe.” Chanting the desperate words of George Floyd – and Dunghutti man David Dungay Jr in Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjRA63NMkUc">These chanted rhythms</a> - <a href="https://www.daily-chronicle.com/2020/05/30/video-hundreds-chant-black-lives-matter-at-peaceful-protest-in-dekalb-saturday/aarl0bm/">Black Lives Matter</a>; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-netherlan/thousands-chant-i-cant-breathe-at-amsterdam-rally-angry-at-george-floyds-death-idUSKBN23834M">I can’t breathe</a>; <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/protesters-march-in-queens-new-york-over-death-of-george-floyd/video/013a33a8f59c9ed9d5e2f7d6fd7e2bca">Whose streets? Our streets! No Justice! No Peace!</a>; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-KDfqn7fdU">The People! United! Will never be divided!</a> – quickly gain momentum. </p>
<p>Some phrases mesh into <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/rhythm-revolution-protest-chants-egypt-ecuador">popular culture through songs</a>. Some songs – like <a href="https://alphahistory.com/vietnamwar/john-lennon-give-peace-chance-1969/">Give Peace a Chance</a> – become iconic chant anthems. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">John and Yoko make use of call and response and chanting in their iconic protest song.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Noise as weapon</h2>
<p>Whizzing rubber bullets have been used since the 1970s, when they were deployed by the British in <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2020/06/rubber-bullets-northern-ireland-protests-police-violence-riots">Northern Ireland during The Troubles</a>. The hiss of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/6/3/21277995/police-tear-gas-protests-history-effects-violence">tear gas</a>, used for almost 100 years, is familiar to protesters and onlookers. But technologies introduced in the mid 1990s and developed since have radically reshaped the soundscape of protest. </p>
<p>The weaponisation of sounds is understandable. Our ears, unlike our eyes, have nothing stopping the entry of stimulus. As a sense, hearing is always available and thus vulnerable. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-sound-of-fear-65230">Friday essay: the sound of fear</a>
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<p>In the natural world, this is of little consequence, as there are few sounds loud enough to cause lasting damage to our hearing. But with industrialisation has come the capacity to produce sounds that exceed a volume we can hear without <a href="https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/noise">causing ourselves damage</a>. </p>
<p>The first non-kinetic weapon widely used against protesters was introduced in North America in 1995. The <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/xm84.htm">M-84 stun grenade</a> has also been used with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cops-are-increasingly-using-military-style-grenades-during-raids-2015-1">increasing frequency by police agencies</a> in North and South America, Europe, the UK and here in Australia.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Sonic booms, the hiss of tear gas. ‘Combat’ footage at the 2009 G-20 protests in Pittsburgh.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Colloquially know as a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=0YsC6M4GFoc&feature=emb_logo">flash-bang</a>, these devices are used to stun and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=OZLyUK0t0vQ&feature=emb_logo">temporarily disorient people in their blast radius</a>. This disorientation is effected primarily by an enormous momentary output of sound and intense light. On detonation, the M-84 output a sound pressure level (SPL) of 170 decibels at two metres. That’s equivalent to a sound as loud as a space shuttle taking off. </p>
<p>The M-84 and other similar weapons, including the <a href="https://www.defense-technology.com/products/tactical-devices/stinger-cs-rubber-ball-grenade-1011580.html">Stinger Grenade</a>, which combines the sound and light blast with an explosion of over 100 hard plastic balls and CS gas, cause people to become <a href="https://www.asha.org/public/hearing/loud-noise-dangers/#dangerous">temporarily deaf and may cause long term hearing impairment</a>. Flash-bangs have also resulted in <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/inventions/police-criticised-for-use-flash-grenade-in-queensland-ice-bust/news-story/97b6a1f04c708a1cfe914e3798c77aaf">serious physical injuries and even deaths</a> despite their “non-lethal” label.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a11139/real-military-uses-for-all-that-ferguson-police-gear-17105149/">Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD) and Medium Range Acoustic Device (MRAD)</a> are even more intimidating. Described as “sound canons”, they are a hyperdirectional speaker, meaning they can direct a beam of sound between 30-60 degrees making it very focused and capable of targeting individuals or small groups of people with great accuracy. </p>
<p>Sound weapons have been widely used in the current wave of Black Lives Matter Protests in North America and during the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIYCjpGUr98">Ferguson Black Lives Matters protests</a> in 2014 over <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/rewind/2019/08/michael-brown-death-shook-ferguson-190806075143124.html">the shooting of Michael Brown</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How hypersonic sounds works and some measures that could save protestors’ hearing.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Powerful beats</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3038133/hong-kong-protests-police-use-controversial-anti-riot-sound">New sonic weapons are always emerging</a>, but still the chants of protestors can soar above. The simple sounds – the sonic equivalent of a sound byte – have a power of their own. </p>
<p>Voices, hands and feet can unite in a pulsing wave of sound to create an infectious and repeatable rhythm. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPuQBqNhH1M">Coordinated with physical movement and dance</a>, to create an even more intensely unified sense of communal will. </p>
<p>Over the past weekend, Australian protestors <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/06/australian-black-lives-matter-protests-tens-of-thousands-demand-end-to-indigenous-deaths-in-custody">reportedly thumped their fists against their chests</a>, creating a powerful collective heartbeat. The rhythm of the beat as it faded was a powerful wordless statement against the injustice of Indigenous deaths in custody. Silence, too, has an <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-silent-protest-that-kick-started-the-civil-rights-movement">enduring protest legacy</a>. </p>
<p>It’s not just bodies that are used to create sounds of protest. In 1971, Chilean protestors famously turned to their kitchens into sonic tools, transforming casserole pots and other utensils into a sound state known as <a href="https://thebogotapost.com/a-journey-around-the-world-with-the-history-of-the-cacerolazo/42524/">Cacerolazo</a>. The tradition continues to resonate this decade in countries like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NMr0WZvFIc">Columbia</a> and even <a href="https://audioboom.com/posts/6117183-sound-of-the-casseroles">Canada</a>, where student protesters raised a nightly cacophony with banging pans. </p>
<p>More conventional objects like musical instruments, especially drums, continue to hold a central place in protest too. In Sydney this past weekend, <a href="https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/sound-parai-resonates-black-lives-matter-protest-sydney-126117">Thirumeni Balamurugan beat</a> a Parai drum to guide the crowd. The instrument is made from the skin of a dead calf and was once associated only with funerals. Now the once-forbidden Tamil drum is <a href="https://thefederal.com/the-eighth-column/parai-attam-drumming-up-change-was-not-easy-but-its-happening-caste-gender/">common at political rallies</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-before-trump-rolled-in-the-deep-music-and-politics-were-entwined-64108">Long before Trump rolled in the deep, music and politics were entwined</a>
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<p>In North America, <a href="https://twitter.com/ashrafkhalil/status/1266935784369729537">drums are playing a strong role in crowd unification</a>, echoing the heavily <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/world/middleeast/protests-egypt-floyd-arab-spring.html">rhythmic pulsations of the Arab Spring</a> and many protests before it. </p>
<p>Though sound can be used as a weapon in modern protests, the sonic capacity of collected bodies on the street united in purpose and pulse remains powerful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lawrence English does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over the past 50 years, protesters’ voices have found power in unison. But activists and onlookers have increasingly been exposed to new sounds that aim to shatter rather than gather the crowd.Lawrence English, Adjunct Lecturer, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1399582020-06-04T12:31:41Z2020-06-04T12:31:41ZWhat is tear gas?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339640/original/file-20200603-130934-lg19ls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4756%2C3147&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Police officers wearing riot gear push back demonstrators shooting tear gas next to St. John's Episcopal Church outside of the White House, June 1, 2020 in Washington D.C., during a protest over the death of George Floyd.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-officers-wearing-riot-gear-push-back-demonstrators-news-photo/1216832808?adppopup=true">JOSE LUIS MAGANA/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the past week, there have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/trump-demands-journalists-correct-stories-on-the-use-of-tear-gas-according-to-the-cdc-it-was-tear-gas/2020/06/02/bf68726c-a544-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html">reports of</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-push-to-tear-gas-protesters-ahead-of-a-trump-photo-op/2020/06/01/4b0f7b50-a46c-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html">tear gas</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/tear-gas-risks-protests-coronavirus.html">being used to control crowds</a> protesting the death of George Floyd, so questions have arisen on the dangers of crowd control chemicals.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.giles.msstate.edu/directory/jan-chambers">I am a toxicologist</a> interested in chemicals that could be used as weapons and I do research to develop therapies for some of these chemicals.</p>
<h2>What is tear gas?</h2>
<p>The term tear gas refers to a group of chemical irritants that can be used to control or disperse crowds. The chemicals that are used for this purpose cause irritation of mucous membranes and of the eyes including tearing (hence the name “tear gas”), twitching around the eyes, cough, difficulty breathing and irritation to the skin. </p>
<p>They are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4814-6">believed to be short-term irritants</a> and unlikely to kill or cause permanent harm, especially if delivered at relatively low levels, on a single occasion and in open spaces. At high levels in closed spaces, though, they <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33915706">can be lethal</a>.</p>
<p>The chemicals are solids, not gasses, but may be delivered dispersed as aerosols in pyrotechnic mixtures that disperse the chemical during the explosion or in solutions delivered as a spray. There are multiple tear gas chemicals, the most likely of which is called 2-chlorobenzalmalonitrile or CS, which was named for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/ja01397a037">Ben Corson and Roger Stoughton</a>, American chemists who invented it in 1928. CS was adopted as the official military <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-374484-5.00012-2">riot control</a> chemical in 1959. There have been many instances of tear gas use around the world.</p>
<h2>How does tear gas work?</h2>
<p>These chemicals react with sensory nerve receptors that can cause pain and discomfort in skin, eyes and mucous membranes. They act almost instantly, but the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Chemical-Warfare-Agents-Biomedical-and-Psychological-Effects-Medical/Lukey-Jr-Salem/p/book/9781498769211">irritation they induce is usually resolved in about 30 minutes to a few hours</a>.</p>
<h2>Can tear gas cause permanent harm?</h2>
<p>In low level and infrequent exposures, they are <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Chemical-Warfare-Agents-Biomedical-and-Psychological-Effects-Medical/Lukey-Jr-Salem/p/book/9781498769211">unlikely to cause permanent harm</a>. They have been used for years by the military to train on gas mask use. There is <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13141">some human evidence reported</a> of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK224932/">long-term effects mainly from high dose exposures</a> in indoor situations and for long time periods. </p>
<p>However, there is little human data on specific vulnerable populations.</p>
<h2>Is tear gas a chemical weapon?</h2>
<p>The 1993 International <a href="https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention">Chemical Weapons Convention</a>, Geneva banned tear gas from being used where military forces are at war. However, a number of countries, including the U.S., have approved the use of tear gas for civilian riot control and for crowd control of non-military persons.</p>
<h2>Does tear gas boost risk of COVID-19?</h2>
<p>Since tear gas irritates the lungs and COVID-19 is mostly a respiratory disease, are those who experience tear gas at greater risk of contracting COVID-19?</p>
<p>Since the coronavirus responsible for the current pandemic is novel, there is no history or precedent to tell us whether tear gas exposure would enhance susceptibility. </p>
<p>If the tear gas exposure was brief, the individual involved was healthy to begin with, and the resulting irritation subsided quickly, it is logical to assume that vulnerability to the novel coronavirus would not be increased, based on the long history of tear gas use with relatively few long term outcomes. But, again, there is no precedent or history to inform us.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janice Chambers receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, CounterACT research program, and previously from the Dept of Defense's Defense Threat Reduction Agency. </span></em></p>The chemical weapon, tear gas, was used in Washington DC, Los Angeles, Orlando and several other cities to control crowds protesting the death of George Floyd. But what is it? Does it cause harm?Janice Chambers, Professor, College of Veterinary Medicine; Director, Center for Environmental Health Sciences, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/636182016-08-09T08:02:18Z2016-08-09T08:02:18ZFive years after the English riots, we still don’t know why the violence spread<p>Five years ago, riots broke out in cities across England; civilians looted shops, started fires and were involved in clashes with armed police, which resulted in <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/08/12/uk.riots/">hundreds of injuries</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14532532">thousands of arrests</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/oct/24/england-riots-cost-police-report">millions of pounds</a> worth of damage. </p>
<p>At the time, the riots <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/8691034/London-riots-Prime-Ministers-statement-in-full.html">were dismissed</a> by the then prime minister, David Cameron, as “criminality, pure and simple”. Later, more complex explanations emerged. Some <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Riots-and-Political-Protest/Winlow-Hall-Briggs-Treadwell/p/book/9780415730822">understood the riots</a> as a frustrated response to society’s consumerist values, where some used violence to go <a href="http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/53/1/1.abstract">“shopping for free”</a>.</p>
<p>Other analyses suggested that <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Riots-and-Political-Protest/Winlow-Hall-Briggs-Treadwell/p/book/9780415730822">social and economic inequalities</a> had created a “tinderbox” where disadvantaged young people were ready to explode at the merest <a href="https://www.crimeandjustice.org.uk/publications/cjm/article/law-moments-understanding-flashpoint-ignited-riots">“flashpoint”</a>. And the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-14842416">police shooting of a young black man called Mark Duggan</a> was one such moment. The shooting, and the police’s failure to formally notify his family, sparked a peaceful protest that developed into riots, which spread across London and then to other parts of England. </p>
<h2>I (can’t) predict a riot</h2>
<p>Leading criminologist Tim Newburn recently argued that the conditions which preceded the riots five years ago <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/05/conditions-that-caused-english-riots-even-worse-now-says-leading-expert?CMP=share_btn_fb">have worsened</a>: “It would be a foolish observer who assumed that our cities are safe this summer,” <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/it-would-be-foolish-to-think-our-cities-are-safe-from-post-brexit-riots-this-summer-a7163786.html">he said</a>. David Lammy, MP for Tottenham, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/30/tottenham-riots-david-lammy?CMP=share_btn_link">echoed these thoughts</a>, and concerns about a second spate of violence have appeared in <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-braced-for-repeat-of-2011-london-riots-z98fxwsvz">The Times</a>.</p>
<p>There have been recent tense moments. In late July, London experienced three separate outbreaks of <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/london-hit-by-horrific-night-of-violence-as-trouble-flares-across-the-capital-after-hottest-day-of-a3299856.html">“spontaneous violence”</a>. Yet such incidents did not escalate significantly, nor spread to other areas. Given that these consumerist values and vast social inequalities persist, we’re faced with <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/62806/">a powerful question</a>: why haven’t we experienced a repeat of the events in 2011?</p>
<p>The short answer is, we simply don’t know. Five years after the riots, research hasn’t advanced sufficiently to enable us to predict events of that scale and intensity. But there has been some progress: for example there is <a href="http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/04/07/bjc.azw036.abstract">considerable evidence</a> that the patterns of interaction between crowds and authorities plays an important role in determining whether one violent incident spreads to other areas. This evidence suggests that forceful police responses escalated the situation in Tottenham in 2011 and contributed to the spread of the riot to other areas of London, such as Hackney. </p>
<p><a href="http://pus.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/03/31/0963662516639872.abstract">We also know</a> that the emergence and spread of crowd violence has a lot to do with how the people involved define themselves and their relationships to the police, as well as who they think <a href="http://hum.sagepub.com/content/53/2/247.abstract">holds the power</a>. </p>
<p>For example, it seems that the recent incidents in London came about when police intervened in informal celebrations or parties. In one case, a mass water-fight in Hyde Park culminated in attacks on the police, after they drove vehicles into the crowd, reportedly to prevent them from setting up a sound system. B J Harrington, the Metropolitan Police commander responsible for policing public order in London, reportedly “denied claims by some people that police, who used riot gear, escalated things by moving in when loud bashment music started being played”. </p>
<p>It is also interesting that some of the chants from those involved reportedly made reference to the Black Lives Matter movement – a message which has recurred in protests marking the anniversary of Duggan’s death. This suggests that the crowd may have interpreted the police intervention as a case of antagonism toward the black community. It also tells us that the crowd felt powerful enough to resist the police force’s authority. </p>
<p>Taken together, these episodes indicate that although social, historical and ideological context is important, we cannot understand rioting without reference to the specific interactions that take place between crowd members and the police, and within the crowds themselves. </p>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>But all this is not an attempt to reject the importance of social inequalities, nor to reduce the riots to some simple example of irrational “mob psychology”. Over the next three years, a <a href="https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/crowdsidentities/2016/05/23/beyondcontagion/">team of researchers</a> from Sussex, Keele and St Andrews universities will be building on <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mad-Mobs-Englishmen-Myths-realities-ebook/dp/B006654U9U">what we already know</a>, to try to understand how and why riots like those we saw in 2011 came about and spread in the way that they did. </p>
<p>Additionally, I would hope that our research then impacts upon social policy and policing practices in a way that genuinely undermines the likelihood that “riots” with such scale and intensity could occur again. </p>
<p>Until we know more about what causes riots, and how they spread, we should be extremely cautious about claims that a repeat of 2011 is imminent or that riots spread uncontrollably through contagion just <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/aug/14/rioting-disease-spread-from-person-to-person">like a disease</a>. The media, in particular, must improve. The Daily Star, for instance, reported that gangs were expected to hijack <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-36996466">a recent protest</a> marking the five years since the death of Duggan: in fact, but there’s <a href="http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/04/07/bjc.azw036.abstract">no evidence to suggest</a> that gang activity would spark another riot – indeed, it has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/oct/24/riots-analysis-gangs-no-pivotal-role">widely accepted</a> that gangs had very little to do with the spread of disturbances in 2011. The protest itself <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/06/mark-duggan-death-fifth-anniversary-march">passed off peacefully</a>.</p>
<p>These kinds of sensationalist articles are dangerous, because they have the power to feed anxieties about crowds. These crowds are then in danger of being seen and policed as a threat when that threat, in fact, does not exist. If some minor incident were then to occur, this could lead to a situation where unnecessarily heavy-handed policing inadvertently sparks the confrontation that everyone was seeking to avoid.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clifford Stott receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>Sensationalist warnings of further riots abound. But while many social inequalities remain, we can’t say whether more widespread violence will follow.Clifford Stott, Professor of Social Psychology, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/467442015-09-14T01:23:22Z2015-09-14T01:23:22ZPolice militarisation takes off with weaponised crowd-control drones<p>Police in the US state of North Dakota can now <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/police-taser-drones-authorised-in-us-state-20150831-gjbppo.html">use drones</a>, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), equipped with less-than-lethal weaponry such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taser">Tasers</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepper_spray">pepper spray</a> and rubber bullets. <a href="http://www.legis.nd.gov/assembly/64-2015/documents/15-0259-05000.pdf?20150826081406">Legislation</a> that came into effect in August specifically allows this.</p>
<p>The original bill was intended to prohibit all weapons on police drones. State Republican Rick Becker, who presented the bill, said its aim was to ensure that police obtain search warrants when using drones in criminal searches. However, a successful amendment by a lobbyist for the North Dakota Peace Officers Association meant the bill prohibited equipping drones with lethal weaponry only. </p>
<p>A disappointed Becker is opposed to attaching weapons of any description to drones, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… there should be a nice, red line: drones should not be weaponised. Period.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The use of drones by authorities has <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-police-drones-just-toys-for-the-boys-18542">increased around the globe</a>. In the US, drones have been used not only for police surveillance and in operations, but also to <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/drone-maker-lawmakers-skirmish-border-mexico-120489">patrol</a> its southern borders. Police forces in <a href="http://www.rt.com/uk/244281-drones-police-privacy-protests/">the UK</a>, <a href="http://www.thepressproject.net/article/64356/Is-Greece-to-lead-the-way-for-Europe-in-the-use-of-drones-for-domestic-policing-and-surveillance">Greece</a> and other European countries are using drones in similar ways, as is Australia.</p>
<p>There is a consistency in the stated rationale for this use: drones are an effective way of gathering intelligence in situations that are unsafe for officers or impractical for helicopters. In <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/nsw-police-to-trial-unmanned-drones-20141205-121bal.html?">Australia</a>, for instance, drones have been touted for use in bushfire situations, for search-and-rescue missions and for gathering intelligence in drug-related crimes.</p>
<p>On the whole, civil libertarians do not take issue with these stated uses. As information-gathering technology begins to outstrip legislation, however, there is <a href="http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Texas-civil-libertarians-have-eye-on-police-drones-2245644.php">nervousness</a> about privacy issues related to surveillance by drones and the ways that authorities may ultimately use any information gathered. UAV use for border control has also created concerns about diplomatic relations.</p>
<h2>Mission creep by remote control</h2>
<p>Drone technology creates a potential for “mission creep”. Like many weapons in today’s police arsenal, UAVs were initially designed for <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/19/the-great-drone-contradiction-unmanned-aircraft-systems/">military use</a>. Drones have been used in armed conflict in <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/11/gaza-life-death-under-israel-drones-20131125124214350423.html">Palestine</a>, <a href="https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/category/projects/drones/drones-pakistan/">Pakistan</a> and <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/senior-isis-member-killed-drone-strike-inside-syria/story?id=33342319">Syria</a>. </p>
<p>Although these military drones are equipped with lethal weaponry and are much larger than the drones that police forces use, all UAVs are operated remotely via a laptop with a game-like console. This is part of their appeal: personnel can unleash lethal force without exposure to counterforce.</p>
<p>This remote control is, however, also a source of great concern. While remotely controlling weaponry makes sense in war zones, it comes with risks in civilian situations as it sets police apart from the citizenry rather than as a constituent of it.</p>
<p>Recent concerns about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-combat-ferguson-and-the-militarisation-of-police-30568">militarisation of police</a> forces reappear in discussions of domestic authorities’ use of drone technology. Last year in Ferguson, Missouri, when public anger at the police shooting of Michael Brown spilled into the streets, heavily armed police clad in khaki military-style uniforms rolled in on an <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/police-militarization-ferguson-2014-8">“Bearcat” armoured truck</a>, most commonly used in war zones. </p>
<p>This response triggered a discussion among Americans about the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/24/military-us-police-swat-teams-raids-aclu">militarisation</a> not only of police weapons but also of <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-should-put-away-the-military-gear-and-build-connections-with-young-people-44947">police tactics</a>. Notably, these tactics include an aggressive approach to crowd control.</p>
<p>In the late 1990s and early 2000s, police approaches to <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10439460500168592?journalCode=gpas20#.VefbGLyqpBc">crowd control changed</a> in the US, Australia and in Europe. “Negotiated management” strategies, which involved a consultative approach to crowds and a high tolerance for minor infractions such as swearing, gave way to a “command and control” approach. This was characterised by zero tolerance for misdemeanours and the aggressive control or physical proscription of public areas for the purposes of peaceful protest.</p>
<p>Such policing reflected the ideology that all crowds were mobs just waiting to happen. Policing at the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/tough-police-powers-outlive-apec/2008/03/11/1205125911459.html">APEC summit in Sydney</a> in 2007, the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8002022.stm">G20 in London</a> in 2009 and recently during Hong Kong’s <a href="http://www.policyforum.net/the-umbrella-revolution/">Umbrella Revolution</a> are paradigmatic of command and control approaches. It has become commonplace for protesters to be confronted by or even <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1166349/Riot-police-storm-G20-protesters-squats---violence-spreads-France.html">outnumbered</a> by police. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-04/09/pepper-spraying-drones">Indian</a> and <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/pepper-spray-drone-offered-south-african-mines-strike-control">South African</a> authorities have embraced the technology for use in crowd situations, including protests. Officials described the equipment as a very effective form of “mob control”, which enables the dispersion of “violent protesters”.</p>
<h2>Weaponised drones: is Australia next?</h2>
<p>What, then, do these uses and the US move to equip drones with less-than-lethal weaponry mean for crowd control in Australia? It’s hard to say. </p>
<p>In Australia, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2007/09/10/2028946.htm">criticism</a> of over-the-top approaches to crowd control has led to their softening, but their effect lingers. New South Wales police acquired a A$700,000 <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/water-waste-of-money-riot-squads-unused-white-elephant-cops-a-spray-20111201-1o99g.html">water cannon</a>, which was <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/g20-water-cannon-kept-away-from-prying-eyes/story-fnn8dlfs-1227122379346">sent to Queensland</a> for the 2014 G20 meeting in Brisbane. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-13/students-pepper-sprayed-at-pyne-protest-in-sydney/6090986">use of capsicum spray</a> is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-26/pepper-spray-used-at-aleague-violence-perth-glory-western-sydney/6422580">increasingly common</a>. In Victoria, police have the power to <a href="http://www.rt.com/news/victoria-police-protest-law-506/">disperse peaceful protesters</a> if they suspect a crowd may become unruly.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/x12wNRiOZ6E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Victoria Police use pepper spray at protests in Melbourne in July 2015.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are already concerns in Australia about the rate of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/protest-at-christopher-pyne-sydney-speech-turns-violent-as-students-pepper-sprayed-20150213-13dsnh.html">escalation of force</a> at some protests and about the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/videos-cast-doubt-on-federal-police-use-of-tasers-and-other-weapons-20141018-117wjr.html">use</a> of less-than-lethal weaponry itself. </p>
<p>Although touted as an alternative to lethal force, research indicates that less-than-lethal weapons are being used <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/videos-cast-doubt-on-federal-police-use-of-tasers-and-other-weapons-20141018-117wjr.html">in addition to lethal force</a>, often in situations to force compliance. Concerns about police training and <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/human-rights-lawyer-urges-taser-reform/story-fn3dxiwe-1227183426615">transparency</a> in the use of less-than-lethal weapons have also been raised. </p>
<p>Although it is unlikely Australian police will adopt drones for crowd control anytime soon, it cannot be ruled out. Perhaps debates about privacy, data retention and encroaching enforcement powers – such as those announced for the abruptly cancelled <a href="https://theconversation.com/operation-fortitude-its-not-just-clumsy-wording-that-should-worry-us-46870">Operation Fortitude</a> – should extend to UAVs and other technologies that are developing more quickly than our capacity to legislate for their use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kylie Bourne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The use of drones by authorities has increased around the globe. In the US, drones have been used not only for police surveillance and in operations, but also to patrol its southern borders.Kylie Bourne, Research Associate at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/442102015-07-03T17:02:02Z2015-07-03T17:02:02ZAs we remember 7/7, it’s time we learned to trust the crowd<p>On the morning of 7 July 2005, we were on the platform at Waterloo East tube station. We were our way to the Royal Society’s Summer Science Exhibition to present <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/John_Drury3/publication/26656436_Cooperation_versus_competition_in_a_mass_emergency_evacuation_a_new_laboratory_simulation_and_a_new_theoretical_model/links/0046351482742126d6000000.pdf">our research</a> on crowd behaviour in emergencies. But, before we got there, we were evacuated from the tube, alongside thousands of other commuters during rush-hour, without being told why. We took the rest of our journey that day on foot, among the crowds of people doing the same. It was slightly surreal to see so many people walking across London on their way to work that morning.</p>
<p>It wasn’t till later that we discovered why we had been evacuated (the Royal Society Exhibition was poorly attended that day, for obvious reasons): four suicide bombers <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/64242/77-bombings-what-happened-and-who-were-the-victims">had attacked</a> London’s underground transport system, killing 52 people and injuring more than 700. But, as well as our shock and sadness for those who had been killed, we had a deep interest in finding out more about the reactions of survivors. </p>
<p>Over the following months, we conducted interviews with survivors and witnesses of the bombings and <a href="http://www.ijmed.org/articles/113/download/">gathered data</a> about their experiences. We found that, despite the fear and the danger people had faced on that day, cooperation and help was common. People were courteous and kind, and personal selfishness was relatively rare – far less common, it seems, than a typical rush-hour on the London Underground.</p>
<h2>British bulldog spirit?</h2>
<p>One of the ideas which dominated at the time was that the fortitude seen in the public reaction – including some moving stories of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12154040">heroism</a> – was something unique to the “bulldog spirit” of the British. Had the bombings happened elsewhere, <a href="http://nationalpsychologist.com/2005/09/77-the-british-reaction-to-terrorist-bombings-in-london/10798.html">it was suggested</a>, then there wouldn’t have been such resilience. But in fact, we thought that the solidarity among survivors that day told us about the psychological capacities of crowds in general. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1348/014466608X357893/abstract">We argued</a> that a crowd which shares an identity – a sense of “us” – is one in which its members will look out for each other, even if they didn’t know each other.</p>
<p>Another image that often accompanies emergencies is that of “mass panic” – the idea that, when a crowd faces danger, irrationality and abandonment of social rules inevitably follow. Mass panic is only one of a number of representations of crowd psychology that characterise “mobs” as either “mad” or “bad”. These representations exist in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/casp.2153/abstract">everyday talk</a>, in disaster movies, in <a href="http://junkee.com/the-herald-sun-has-dismissed-4000-indigenous-rights-protestors-as-a-selfish-rabble/54833">newspaper headlines</a> – and sometimes even in emergency planning guidance. But the events of 7/7 exposed these ideas about crowds as falsehoods.</p>
<p>Like 9/11 before it, this emergency reinforced the need for some form of “community resilience”. The logic goes that, because the number of emergencies is said to be <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21582041.2011.609332#.VZalQxtVikp">increasing</a>, and because professional responders cannot be expected to arrive in time or in sufficient numbers, the public should rely on their own collective resources to cope and recover. While such “communities” are usually thought of as geographical groups or pre-existing networks of people, our analysis of the response to 7/7 showed that crowds can sometimes operate as psychological communities. </p>
<p>As a result, we referred to survivors as “the fourth emergency service” and “<a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/zero-responders-nairobi-shopping-mall.html">zero responders</a>”. In fact, the same point is recognised in the government’s own <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60922/Strategic-National-Framework-on-Community-Resilience_0.pdf">guidance</a> on community resilience, which refers to crowds as “communities of circumstance, whereby people are unlikely to have the same interests or come from the same geographical area but may form a community in the aftermath of an event”.</p>
<h2>Bouncing forward</h2>
<p>The term “resilience” is often taken as a conservative concept, and the metaphor of “<a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/200410/resilience-bouncing-back">bouncing back</a>” can reinforce this view, as the focus is on accepting the status quo and adjusting to the adverse situations that individuals and communities can find themselves in. But a better metaphor might be the ability to “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13549839.2011.583049">bounce forward</a>”, as it suggests that something new can arise from the event. </p>
<p>It was notable that it was a new collective identity which emerged among many survivors – not the maintenance of an existing one. Some survivors used this shared identity that emerged from 7/7 as a basis for a mutual <a href="http://rachelnorthlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/kings-cross-united-6-months-on.html">support group</a> and to campaign for the government to recognise their needs. </p>
<p>Some are commemorating the tenth anniversary of 7/7 by asking Londoners to get off public transport a stop early and <a href="http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/walktogether/">walk together</a> to work. We think this can also serve as a reminder of the spontaneous way in which Londoners came together on that terrible day. But the spontaneous formation of crowds can also highlight a potential problem for those in authority. While emergency planners may need crowds and other informal groups, they also sometimes fear them because of their potential to organise autonomously. </p>
<p>The same capacities that are the basis of collective resilience – capacities such as mutual social support based on a shared social identity – are also the basis of collective empowerment. These autonomous groups may have the power to make demands on the government – or to demonstrate that the government is redundant. </p>
<p>For example, in Rachel Solnit’s <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Paradise-Built-Hell-Extraordinary-Communities/dp/0143118072">description of</a> the emergent communities that came together in response to such disasters as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, it is clear that they were often treated as a potential threat. At times, these crowds were ruthlessly suppressed by the National Guard, which entered the disaster zones to “restore order”.</p>
<p>Crowds can form communities, and it’s right that they’re increasingly seen as potential partners in emergency planning. But there is still a deep-seated unease towards them in the corridors of power. As we have <a href="https://theconversation.com/hillsboroughs-lesson-dont-fear-the-crowd-25618">argued elsewhere</a>, we believe that society has some way to go, before it will overcome its fear of the crowd. Surely, the anniversary of 7/7 is a time for such reflection.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research mentioned in this article was funded by a grant from the Economic and Social Research Council, awarded to John Drury.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Drury received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council for the research mentioned in this article. </span></em></p>Crowds have the potential to provide a “fourth emergency service” - but only if we let them.Chris Cocking, Researcher in Crowd Behaviour, University of BrightonJohn Drury, Reader in Social Psychology, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/424512015-05-28T10:49:44Z2015-05-28T10:49:44ZCounting crowds is a start – but we also need to understand them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83227/original/image-20150528-32207-12wcqr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A disaster waiting to happen?</span> </figcaption></figure><p>There’s been a flurry of excitement about a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32883015">new model for counting crowds</a> using data generated by crowd members using Twitter and also their more general mobile phone usage. It was laid out in a recently published <a href="http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/2/5/150162">study</a>, in which the authors highlight the importance of knowing crowd numbers in order to be able to prevent crowd disasters. </p>
<p>As someone with a close interest in the study of crowds, I applaud any study that contributes to improved crowd safety management. From my own experience of trying to estimate crowd numbers, I also appreciate the inherent problems involved in this area, and can see the benefits in finding more accurate forms of crowd counting, as traditional methods are often susceptible to human error and bias. </p>
<p>For instance, the numbers of those who attend political demonstrations in the UK are often hotly debated, depending on one’s perspective – but the basic fact is that protest organisers tend to overestimate crowd size, while the police and right-wing media usually underestimate them. </p>
<p>As with all scientific research, we need to be careful not to make claims that go beyond the actual findings of particular studies. So I do wonder whether creating crowd models based upon simply knowing the physical characteristics of crowds can really help us ensure their safe facilitation and management. </p>
<h2>The limits of modelling</h2>
<p>Other <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/spacetimelab/people/ed-manley">crowd modellers</a> have sounded a note of caution about this research, highlighting the point that not everyone in crowds uses smart-phones and in any case such information depends upon mobile phone signals being available. </p>
<p>During large crowd events, mobile network coverage is often compromised by surges in demand. People affected by major incidents can flood it by trying to contact others, or the entire service can even be commandeered by the emergency services (as the City of London Police did briefly during the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/4763350.stm">7/7</a> bombings). </p>
<p>But there’s a broader issue with the use of crowd modelling in isolation. Being aware of a crowd’s mere physical size at any fixed point is generally of little use on its own. To prevent crowd disasters, it is vital to also consider the dynamic build-up of crowd size as well as what crowd members are actually doing. </p>
<p>It is far better to proactively implement efforts to ensure safe crowd management (maintaining steady crowd flow, monitoring pinch points for potentially dangerous levels of crowd density) than just responding to flare-ups once they occur. </p>
<p>In order to be able to take quick preventative action, it’s vital to have people in place who can communicate with crowd members and help facilitate their safe movement. This usually means placing trained stewards and crowd density spotters at selected vantage points to regularly report on crowd flow, density levels, visible signs of distress in crowd members and the like. and they are ideally situated to advise on crowd mood and/or behaviour as well as how to address any potential problems before they escalate to dangerous levels. </p>
<p>If these measures are not taken, events can easily escalate to a degree where it is too late to prevent tragedy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/83230/original/image-20150528-32175-alegi7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A memorial to the victims of the 2010 Love Parade disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:LP2010-Trauerkerzen.JPG#/media/File:LP2010-Trauerkerzen.JPG">Beademung via German Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That much was demonstrated in a <a href="http://www.epjdatascience.com/content/pdf/epjds7.pdf">study</a> of the 2010 Love Parade tragedy in Duisburg, Germany, where 21 died and more than 500 were injured in a fatal crush that created a “crowd-quake” of pressure surging through the crowd which people were physically unable to prevent. </p>
<h2>Back to psychology</h2>
<p>I firmly believe that the fields of crowd psychology and crowd modelling need not be in opposition to each other, and that both disciplines can make valuable contributions to the study of safe crowd management. </p>
<p>But crowd modelling perspectives are only as good as the theoretical approaches that underpin them – and until recently too many of these models didn’t consider psychological theories of collective human behaviour in sufficient detail. When they did, they focused on outdated approaches that wrongly assume that people will inevitably “panic” and/or stampede in crowd emergencies. This is a fallacy, and it’s strongly rejected in my own and other crowd psychologists’ current <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/shanghai-crowd-crush-tragedy.html">work</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, I am happy that some very good recent examples of crowd modelling have taken social psychology into account when building their models, such as research into the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146514001355">7/7</a> bombings and the work of <a href="http://www.gkstill.com/">Keith Still</a>. So I would agree with the claims of the authors of this most recent study into crowd counting that it provides a good base on which to build further research. </p>
<p>But I would also suggest that activity on Twitter and mobile phone networks alone cannot tell us all we need to know about human behaviour in crowds and their safe management. We all have more work to do if we are to keep people safe in crowds and prevent often avoidable crowd disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Cocking does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study rejoices at being able to predict crowd movements and size with phone data. But those methods won’t keep us safe.Chris Cocking, Researcher into crowd behaviour, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/306762014-08-19T17:13:25Z2014-08-19T17:13:25ZMilitarised policing is not the answer to Ferguson’s problems<p>The town of Ferguson, Missouri has now seen ten days of almost nightly disorder following the shooting of black teenager Michael Brown by the police. The decision to bring in the National Guard has not quelled the disorder and in fact may be aggravating the situation.</p>
<p>Society often has a tendency to fear crowds and to presume they need to be tackled by force but it is in fact this force that can make a tense situation spill over into violence. In many cases it is the cause of a problem, not the solution. </p>
<h2>Taking on the crowd</h2>
<p>During the night of August 18, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/19/ferguson-police-national-guard-michael-brown-missouri-crisis">31 protesters were arrested</a> in Ferguson and Amnesty International observers were told to leave the scene.</p>
<p>The police deployed in the evenings in Ferguson are heavily armed with a range of sophisticated weapons. They have tear gas, sonic devices, baton rounds, and stun grenades, all of which make them look more like soldiers than civilian policeman.</p>
<p>These devices are indiscriminate crowd control weapons designed for dispersal and do not differentiate between protesters. Everyone is in the firing line. It’s an approach that has long been questioned by <a href="http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1vpaw/HMCICSubmissionCrowd/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwwww.yudu.com%2Fitem%2Fdetails%2F478739%2FHMCIC-Submission--Crowd-Psychology---Public-Order-Policing">researchers</a> of crowd behaviour. Many have argued that treating crowds forcefully and indiscriminately often escalates disorder rather than calming it. If a crowd thinks it is being treated unfairly, it will react against this treatment which can in turn cause more forceful police responses, resulting in an escalating cycle of disorder. </p>
<h2>Describing the crowd</h2>
<p>The language used to describe the protests in Ferguson also reflects our pervasive <a href="https://theconversation.com/londons-new-water-cannon-will-be-a-disaster-for-trust-in-policing-27887">mistrust of crowds</a>.</p>
<p>Ferguson Police Captain Ron Johnson provided a prime example of this problem when he said at a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28848695">press conference</a> that “a small number of violent agitators … hide in the crowd and then attempt to create chaos”. I have seen no CCTV footage to support this assertion and I would take issue with the premise behind it anyway. He implies that a a minority of people with malicious intent are responsible for inciting the peaceful majority to behave violently. This assumes that crowd members are easily influenced by others to do things that they would not otherwise do. If crowds were this easily influenced by others, why don’t they listen to police warnings to disperse?</p>
<p>The idea that crowds are gullible and uncritical of any social influence is largely a myth. If violence does occur it rarely happens because a violent minority has whipped up the the crowd. It is more likely because the police have treated the crowd in an indiscriminate way. This psychologically unites crowd members to act together against what are perceived as illegitimate attacks against them.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.shu.ac.uk/research/c3ri/sites/clients.theworkshop.co.uk/files/Roger%20Ball%20and%20John%20Drury.pdf">study</a> of the figures presented by the media and politicians to illustrate “irrational” criminality during the 2011 riots in the UK tells a similar story. The statistics used to describe these events were often selective or misrepresented and the conclusions drawn were not supported by detailed examination of what actually happened.</p>
<p>Locals from Ferguson also seem to reject this narrative of criminality and there have been much more positive accounts of recent events in the town told by those actually involved in them. The BBC has reported how some people on the ground perceive an almost festival-like atmosphere in Ferguson and described a sense of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-28841350">“love and support”</a> in the crowd. Others describe locals protecting local businesses from looters. A <a href="https://twitter.com/VictorLicata1/status/501559719429820416/photo/1">photo circulating on Twitter</a> even appears to show rival gang members, wearing different coloured bandanas, standing together to protect a shop.</p>
<h2>Misunderstanding the crowd</h2>
<p>This also shows that protestors are placing limits on the crowd’s behaviour in Ferguson. This undermines another common myth of crowd disorder – that once riots begin, anything goes and “mob rule” takes over. Evidence from the London riots suggests that the crowds behaved in complex ways. People who had been fighting police would stop to protect shops from looters and despite hostilities with police, the crowds would rarely attack fire crews or paramedics.</p>
<p>The disorder in Ferguson can’t be explained away by blaming a minority of bad-intentioned individuals. And responding to legitimate protests with increasingly militarised policing and force will only serve to further alienate the people of Ferguson.</p>
<p>Responding to these events with such overwhelming force is a move based on a fundamental distrust of crowd behaviour. The US police are probably among the most heavily armed in the world but that has not stopped urban disorder from happening. Something is clearly badly wrong when US citizens in 2014 are openly talking about their own police as an occupation force. We have to look at the broader social context when events like this happen and escalate. Long term solutions will not be found by turning police forces into the paramilitary outfits we are currently seeing on the streets of St Louis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Cocking does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The town of Ferguson, Missouri has now seen ten days of almost nightly disorder following the shooting of black teenager Michael Brown by the police. The decision to bring in the National Guard has not…Chris Cocking, Researcher into crowd behaviour, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/270032014-05-23T05:07:56Z2014-05-23T05:07:56ZSmart DJs use maths to mix the perfect beat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49171/original/77phc4ft-1400690351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deadmau5: probably does his sums.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thecosmopolitan/6117530924/in/photolist-eatgJp-e9RMYX-dx8QoW-dx3m4k-aqmFeS-abD9ag-abFXXY-4R9VPm-bfWAMR-6h9kG9-6h9kFf-ajAavJ-6h5axX-eacVA4-ajAav9-ajAavo-ajxkAg-ajxkyt-ajxkyV-ajxkyK-ajxkyc-ajxbQv-ajxbQn-ajzWPb-ajzWNA-ajzWP7-ajzWNj-ajzWNy-ajzWNo-ajzVpf-ajzVoY-ajzVp7-ajzVoy-ajx7kv-ajx7k4-ajx7ke-ajx7k8-ajx7k2-ajx7jK-ajzQi9-ajzQiq-ajzQid-ajzQhw-ajzQi1-81JVGq-81FLs4-81FHLk-cwyAUf-ajA7cw-ajA7cU">The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People are very good at moving in time to a beat. When you listen to your favourite song, you will probably find yourself nodding your head or tapping your foot along almost instinctively.</p>
<p>And when you’re doing it in a club, that piles pressure on your DJ. That DJ has to mix two songs together to maintain a common beat between the tracks if they want to keep the audience dancing. If they do a bad job of the mix, the two beat lines from each song won’t blend into each other. The most likely result of such a faux pas would be an instantly empty dance floor. </p>
<p>We’ve been <a href="http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/281/1786/20140751">investigating</a> how closely matched two beat lines need to be for people to start moving in time to them as if they form a common beat. In other words, how accurate does a DJ need to be to make a seamless transition between songs? </p>
<p>We asked people to tap their finger in time to two metronomes played simultaneously. The separation between the two metronomes and the consistency (the predictability of the rhythms) was varied across the experiment.</p>
<p>We found that if the metronomes were very consistent, they had to be closely matched in time for them to be considered a common beat. But if the beats of the individual metronomes were inconsistent and less predictable, the separation between the beats could be larger while still being considered to form a single common beat. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49147/original/yvc6dp8m-1400675009.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Better mix quick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carl Elliott</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since a DJ will typically play tunes with a strongly defined beat, our research shows that in fact they have a very small margin of error to make the two beat lines sound as one to the dancing crowd. </p>
<p>The skill of DJing is probably more complex than people realise. Many of them might be high profile and living a super-star lifestyle but the professional DJ is an as-yet largely under-researched species. Along with the University of Leeds, we’re now investigating the timing skills of professional DJs who have only received informal training (as is generally the case) and comparing them to formally trained classical musicians.</p>
<h2>Mathematical moshing</h2>
<p>The models resulting from this research are also being applied to other areas, including crowd movements. In football stadiums the crowd will often become excited and start to bounce up and down together.</p>
<p>When the crowd moves together like this it can create problems with structural vibration so it’s useful to understand how and when a crowd is likely to start moving in synchrony.</p>
<p>The conditions under which this occurs are oddly similar to the beat matching of songs. A crowd moving together has developed a common beat between them. In this case however, rather than just sound, they are also combining vision and touch from the people surrounding them. We are <a href="http://gow.epsrc.ac.uk/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/I031030/1">working towards understanding</a> how the brain combines all this conflicting and unreliable sensory information to develop a common beat to which everyone moves.</p>
<p>Information like this can then be used to inform the construction of stadiums and bridges. This should result in <a href="http://gow.epsrc.ac.uk/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/I029567/2">better structural designs</a> with less wobble when the crowd get excited.</p>
<p>So next time you scoff at the superstar DJ being paid a fortune to play a few songs, give them a little credit. These results show that we continuously adjust our judgements of events in our environment according to the statistics of the sensory information we get from those events. Making two beats into one, maintaining your audience as you go, is a fine art.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Elliott receives funding from the EPSRC and prior to this, the BBSRC.</span></em></p>People are very good at moving in time to a beat. When you listen to your favourite song, you will probably find yourself nodding your head or tapping your foot along almost instinctively. And when you’re…Mark Elliott, Research Fellow in Human Movement Timing and Coordination, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/256182014-04-15T13:34:36Z2014-04-15T13:34:36ZHillsborough’s lesson – don’t fear the crowd<p>It is the 25th anniversary of the worst sporting tragedy in the UK: the Hillsborough football disaster, where 96 Liverpool fans died at an FA cup semi-final game against Nottingham Forest. As a mark of respect, all domestic football matches on Saturday 12 April started seven minutes <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26685698">late</a>, and various <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27001696">tributes</a> were held by football fans across the country. </p>
<p>The fallout from the disaster is still being felt 25 years on, now with a new round of <a href="http://hillsboroughinquests.independent.gov.uk/">inquests</a> after the quashing of the original “accidental death” verdicts in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-20772416">December 2012</a>. These inquests are currently hearing profiles of the 96 <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26765007">victims</a>, with moving accounts by their <a href="http://www.live.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26979691">families</a>; there are also ongoing separate <a href="http://operationresolve.co.uk/">police</a> and <a href="http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/investigations/hillsborough">Independent Police Complaints Commission</a> investigations into the disaster. </p>
<p>It is now largely accepted that the fatal crush in the Leppings Lane pens, where the Liverpool fans were located, was a preventable disaster. Measures have been taken since to ensure that such crushes can never happen again, such as re-designing perimeter fences in football stadiums so that they can be opened quickly if crushes begin. </p>
<p>As the 1989 <a href="http://www.epcollege.com/EPC/media/MediaLibrary/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/F%20Inquiry%20Reports/Hillsborough-Taylor-Report.pdf?ext=.pdf">Taylor Report</a> said, it was a miracle that such a disaster had not happened before. It pointed out the tragic irony that before the disaster, no-one had ever died in a pitch invasion at a UK football match, while at Hillsborough 96 Liverpool fans died because the police were trying to stop an imagined one. </p>
<p>The way the police viewed football (and other) crowds in the 1980s influenced how they policed them. This is why they failed to spot the fatal crush developing until it was too late; it was exacerbated by the police believing that Liverpool fans were attempting to invade the pitch (hence the cordon they maintained near the half-way line while the disaster was at its height), when in fact they were merely trying to escape the fatal crush. This misplaced belief resulted in police pushing fans back into the pens while people still inside them were dying.</p>
<p>A common theme emerges runs through this catalogue of mistakes: that football matches and crowd events in general in the 1980s were too often seen as a public order problem, instead of a public safety issue. This is explicitly stated in the report, which concluded that at Hillsborough, “the collective policing mindset prioritised crowd control over crowd safety.”</p>
<p>Along with others involved in the study of crowd emergency behaviour and safety management, I am very critical of such approaches. As John Fruin has written, there is a clear difference between crowd control and crowd management:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Crowd management is defined as the systematic planning for, and supervision of, the orderly movement and assembly of people. Crowd control is the restriction or limitation of group behaviour.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is not just a semantic issue. As <a href="http://drury-sussex-the-crowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/hillsborough-and-crowd-control.html">John Drury</a> wrote after the independent panel report was published, “Approaching the crowd with a view to crowd control risks undermining crowd safety.” This emphasis on “crowd control” directly contributed to the disaster at Hillsborough.</p>
<h2>Insult and injury</h2>
<p>Of course, it was not just the disaster itself that made Hillsborough infamous, but also the subsequent cover-ups and attempts to deflect blame for the tragedy onto the victims that have so hurt both their families and the survivors, leaving an enduring sense of injustice that is still felt today. But lies about fans’ alleged behaviour (which have since been shown to be baseless) were all too readily accepted by politicians and the media. This was influenced by the same pervasive view that crowds are not to be trusted because of their potential for “irrational” behaviour.</p>
<p>The most notorious example was perhaps the shocking front page of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-19575411">Sun</a> newspaper, headlined <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=the+sun+hillsborough+original+article&espv=2&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&imgil=1PDvkgl1YA9TGM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcTl_9mhOmS2gBjm6H2P3dKVx6rDplYW-SBms21dGk--jc9Cr">The Truth</a>, which appeared four days after the disaster.</p>
<p>These views of crowds permeated the very top of the British establishment, as highlighted by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-margaret-thatchers-ministers-to-be-interviewed-by-police-watchdog-over-hillsborough-disaster-9236663.html">reports</a> that days after the tragedy, senior police officers briefed Margaret Thatcher that drunken Liverpool fans were to blame for the tragedy, despite there being <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/leaked-hillsborough-papers.html">no evidence</a> to support this claim.</p>
<p>Thatcher’s chief Press Secretary <a href="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/margaret-thatcher-aide-sir-bernard-3420040">Bernard Ingham</a> also provoked outrage by defiantly sticking to the myth that Liverpool fans were to blame and the city should “shut up about Hillsborough”; similarly, in 2012, Boris Johnson was forced to apologise for an article that appeared in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/2012/sep/13/boris-johnson-apologises-hillsborough-article">The Spectator</a> magazine when he was editor that falsely blamed drunken fans for the tragedy. </p>
<p>These attitudes have greatly exacerbated the sense of injustice. A recent article in the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/liverpool/10760335/We-all-share-in-the-shame-of-Hillsborough.html">Daily Telegraph</a> looked at the shocking treatment of victims after Hillsborough, arguing that derogatory stereotypes of Liverpudlians have also helped contribute to the enduring myth that somehow fans were to blame.</p>
<p>There is almost a sense of moral panic in the way society views crowds, in that they are often seen as vehicles for potential “disorder” or mass panic, despite decades’ worth of research by psychologists finding that such concepts are largely myths, and that crowds often behave much more sensibly than they are usually given credit for. When tragedies happen, it is almost always because of a failure of crowd management, as opposed to any “irrational” behaviour on the part of the victims. Attempts to blame victims are often part of a strategy to deflect blame away from those responsible for such mismanagement. </p>
<p>As I have argued <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/dont-blame-brazilian-nightclub-fire-on.html">elsewhere</a>, we too often attempt to shift blame for disasters like Hillsborough onto victims by using emotive terms such as “panic” to describe their behaviour. This deep societal mistrust of crowds was a major contribution to the context in which Hillsborough happened, and helps explain why the despicable slurs that were spread about the victims were allowed to remain unchecked in popular discourse for so long – adding to the pain and distress of those who knew the truth about what happened.</p>
<p>To help avoid future Hillsboroughs, we need to develop a less negative view of crowd behaviour in popular discourse. As I <a href="http://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/hillsborough-papers-released.html">wrote</a> when the Hillsborough Independent Panel report was released, we all need to take responsibility for ensuring that we adopt a less pathological view towards crowds, and try to develop crowd safety strategies at large events that prevent such disasters from ever happening again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Cocking has received funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p>It is the 25th anniversary of the worst sporting tragedy in the UK: the Hillsborough football disaster, where 96 Liverpool fans died at an FA cup semi-final game against Nottingham Forest. As a mark of…Chris Cocking, Researcher into crowd behaviour, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/80662012-07-24T04:24:06Z2012-07-24T04:24:06ZComputing the chances of Olympic crowd chaos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12824/original/3kvchszn-1341981590.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A crowd can be a lot to handle, even when they're happy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Handling crowds on major events is a huge challenge for organisers, and the <a href="http://www.olympic.org/ioc-governance-organising-committees">Olympics Organising Committee</a> will be dealing with some of the biggest crowds there are.
Simulating such crowds could be one of the best shortcuts to a safer Olympics.</p>
<p>The logistics of routing large crowds in a safe manner - both in normal and emergency situations - is one of the major tasks event security staff will face in London. </p>
<p>To plan ahead for these situations, planners often use crowd simulations. These can help to simulate “what-if” scenarios, and the consequences if these events occur. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lfyneib5UQE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>There are many different approaches to modelling what crowds do. Some are “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroscopic_scale">macroscopic</a>”: these try to understand how groups of people move through an area. Modellers look at the quickest time it takes for a group of pedestrians to get from one place to another – and this constitutes the minimum evacuation time. </p>
<p>“<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microscopic">Microscopic</a>” approaches model every individual. They examine the interaction between people and find possible conflict points or bottlenecks.</p>
<p>Microscopic “force models” assume each individual is influenced by forces. A “driving” force sends them to their destination. “Repelling” forces push them away from obstacles and other pedestrians on the way to the destination. </p>
<p>Modellers combine these forces and map where pedestrians would walk on this field towards their destination. </p>
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<p>Microscopic “agent-based models” (such as the one above) use artificial intelligence to model different behaviours for pedestrians. Each agent gets a set of parameters (such as age, gender, fatigue level, level of orientation skills) which are combined to predict individual preferences and behaviours. </p>
<p>Agent-based models are best for simulating everyday situations and observing the interaction of different characters. Force-based approaches model large and dense crowds accurately and work well for simulating evacuations at major events.</p>
<p>In Germany, we’ve been working on a force-based training simulator. The objective was to simulate peoples’ movements on the surroundings of a German soccer stadium for different scenarios. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/12825/original/q75gvwsx-1341981595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steffen Kugler/EPA</span></span>
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<p>The case study we used was the following scenario:</p>
<p>At 5.20pm on Saturday evening in the German city of Kaiserslautern, 40,000 rival soccer fans pour out of the Fritz-Walter stadium after the final whistle has been blown on a league game. </p>
<p>All of these fans are either heading to the parking lots or train stations. Even without any incidents, this is a difficult situation for the police and security services. </p>
<p>But in emergencies or disasters crowd management becomes a matter of life and death. </p>
<p>Our simulator (see the video below) runs in real-time for thousands of simulated pedestrians. The user imports a map of the environment he or she wants to simulate, defines locations for arrival and destinations for the pedestrians and presses the start button. </p>
<p>A window then displays an animation of the pedestrians navigating through the environment. Pedestrians are displayed in different colours depending on the density of the crowd – and this gives planners immediate feedback. </p>
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<p>When simulation results reveal potential bottlenecks and conflict areas, planners can act. They might put security staff at intersections to guide pedestrians towards less-crowded areas. Or they might close specific sections that aren’t safe for large crowds.</p>
<p>None of this simulation will work, though, if the parameters used are inaccurate. Modellers need a lot of information before they start:</p>
<ul>
<li>What is the demography of people visiting the event? </li>
<li>Are people familiar with the venue? </li>
<li>What are the logistics of transporting people to and from the event? </li>
<li>How many people are going to visit the event and what are the arrival times? </li>
<li>What is the exact geometry of the venue? </li>
</ul>
<p>The best place to get this information is from experienced security staff. Great staff combined with a good simulation will improve the planning process significantly. </p>
<p>Simulations are not meant to reflect reality, but they do provide an approximation of what may happen and reflect trends and patterns of crowds. These tools have to be used responsibly. </p>
<p>Precisely defined parameters and expertly interpreted results are the only way to get safer crowds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/8066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angelika Kneidl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Handling crowds on major events is a huge challenge for organisers, and the Olympics Organising Committee will be dealing with some of the biggest crowds there are. Simulating such crowds could be one…Angelika Kneidl, PhD Candidate of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Technical University of MunichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.