tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/disarmament-12553/articlesDisarmament – The Conversation2023-07-10T14:46:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087742023-07-10T14:46:00Z2023-07-10T14:46:00ZDRC violence has many causes – the UN’s narrow focus on ethnicity won’t help end conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535574/original/file-20230704-17-up8tx7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soldiers from South Sudan prepare to be deployed to help restore peace in the DRC. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samir Bol/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UN Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement">2023 mid-term report</a> reduces the very complex causes of violence in the eastern part of the country to inter-communal violence. This widely disregards armed groups’ motivations to resort to violence. </p>
<p>This narrow approach will perpetuate the cycles of violence in a country whose population hasn’t known peace for <a href="https://theconversation.com/conflict-in-the-drc-5-articles-that-explain-whats-gone-wrong-195332">three decades</a>. A failure to account for the other major reasons for the conflict in the experts’ brief to the <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/what-security-council">UN Security Council</a> could lead to the adoption of inappropriate measures to stabilise the DRC. </p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=4SlemykAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">researched</a> the micro and macro causes of conflict in eastern DRC since 2017 to understand the motivations of individuals, groups and communities. In my view, most of the violent confrontations are consequences of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-drcs-colonial-legacy-forged-a-nexus-between-ethnicity-territory-and-conflict-153469">legacy of colonialism</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/burundis-gatumba-massacre-offers-a-window-into-the-past-and-future-of-the-drc-conflict-191351">state fragility</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-drcs-army-and-police-arent-yet-ready-to-protect-citizens-114326">dysfunctional and corrupted security services</a>. </p>
<p>From South Kivu to North Kivu and Ituri in the eastern region, the legacy of colonialism has categorised local communities into native and non-native. This has created conflict along the lines of belonging and its associated rights. The Congolese state <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-banyamulenge-how-a-minority-ethnic-group-in-the-drc-became-the-target-of-rebels-and-its-own-government-201099">hasn’t tackled this issue</a> – and state authority is absent in many areas. </p>
<p>The Congolese army is largely dysfunctional and corrupted. It’s among those <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10246029.2018.1486719">feeding violence</a> at local levels. It has <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/16/dr-congo-kidnappings-skyrocket-east">failed to protect civilians</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/KivuSecurity/status/1304083139334156289">picked sides</a> in inter-community violence. </p>
<h2>Inside the report</h2>
<p>In recent years, the UN group of experts has narrowed all this complexity into inter-communal violence, with limited details on what drives it. Yet the mandate of the group – established in 2000 – is to <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sites/www.un.org.securitycouncil/files/en/sc/repertoire/2000-2003/00-03_5.pdf#page=16">investigate and analyse</a> connections between resource exploitation and the persistence of conflict. Its reports should help the UN understand the bigger picture in eastern DRC. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement">latest report</a> highlights five major events:</p>
<p><strong>Violence in the west</strong>: Maindombe, one of the western provinces, had appeared to be more stable than the north and south Kivus and Ituri in the volatile east. But it’s estimated that more than <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/30/dr-congo-rampant-intercommunal-violence-west">300 civilians have been killed</a> in Maindombe between June 2022 and March 2023. The violence is between the <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=7">Teke and Yaka ethnic communities</a>. The former consider themselves the original inhabitants of the region and the Yaka as non-native. </p>
<p><strong>The Allied Democratic Forces:</strong> Designated as a <a href="https://www.state.gov/state-department-terrorist-designations-of-isis-affiliates-and-leaders-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-mozambique/">terrorist organisation in 2021</a> by the US, this group is active in Beni (North Kivu) and parts of Ituri province. The group has secured strategic and financial support from other terrorist groups, including Somalia’s Da’esh and IS-Somalia. The report notes that dismantling the terror group’s complex funding mechanisms and networks needs greater collaboration among countries.</p>
<p><strong>Rwanda and M23:</strong> In North Kivu, the UN report has called attention to the violence perpetrated by the <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=13">Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group</a>. The conflict has forced thousands of civilians to flee, deepening a humanitarian crisis. The UN experts warn that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-m23s-on-and-off-insurgency-tells-us-about-drcs-precarious-search-for-peace-182520">M23</a> has the military capacity to wage and sustain conflict due to recruitment campaigns in Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. This report is the first to name <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=17">high-ranking Rwandan military generals</a> involved in fighting alongside M23 rebels.</p>
<p><strong>The rise of the Twirwaneho:</strong> In South Kivu, the UN report <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=30">documents clashes</a> among groups claiming to be protecting their ethnic communities. The report highlights the Twirwaneho, an armed (self-defence) group affiliated to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-banyamulenge-how-a-minority-ethnic-group-in-the-drc-became-the-target-of-rebels-and-its-own-government-201099">Banyamulenge</a>, a minority ethnic group in South Kivu.</p>
<p><strong>The Codeco threat:</strong> The report also documents atrocities committed in Ituri province against civilians and internally displaced people. Here, it highlights the rebel group <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=25">Codeco’s</a> attacks. It terms the violence inter-communal. </p>
<h2>The report’s loopholes</h2>
<p>The report is consistent with previous reports in terming ethnic communities’ “antagonism” as the source of violence. The DRC has more than 250 ethnic groups. But based on <a href="https://www.jpolrisk.com/category/article-type/working-paper/">my research</a>, it’s my view that violence in the country is intrinsically complex. Using a single lens can be misleading.</p>
<p>In my view, there are four major loopholes in the report. </p>
<p>First, the UN experts disregard the prominent roles played by other major actors in the conflict, such as the national army. It also ignores the <a href="https://theconversation.com/burundis-gatumba-massacre-offers-a-window-into-the-past-and-future-of-the-drc-conflict-191351">regional ramifications</a> of the violence. This includes the support provided by <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/democratic-republic-congo/b150-averting-proxy-wars-eastern-dr-congo-and-great-lakes">Rwanda to Burundian rebel groups in South Kivu</a>. State fragility also helps explain why the DRC’s conflict has persisted for three decades. Adding these factors would broaden understanding of the root causes of the conflict and its persistence. </p>
<p>Second, the UN experts tend to jump to conclusions based on largely questionable premises. For instance, evidence of “<a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=34">mass recruitment</a>” and the <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/123/80/PDF/N2312380.pdf?OpenElement#page=32">formation of new alliances</a> between Twirwaneho, M23 and Red-Tabara rebel groups isn’t clear. Since 2017, Red-Tabara, for instance, has been <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/174098/1/05_GIC_Mayhem-in-the-mountains_WEB-2.pdf#page=79">attacking the Banyamulenge</a>. </p>
<p>Third, the report shows signs of bias. For instance, it highlights the Twirwaneho and ignores other groups active in South Kivu. I’ve covered this bias in <a href="https://www.jpolrisk.com/why-the-un-fails-to-prevent-mass-atrocities/">a study</a> that analyses 324 incidents recorded by <a href="https://kivusecurity.org/">Kivu Security Tracker</a> and 29 reports from the UN’s peacekeeping mission in the DRC, Monusco. Monusco is one of the main sources of the UN experts’ information. </p>
<p>Fourth, in North Kivu, the experts have only documented atrocities and human rights abuses committed by M23 and the Rwandan Defence Forces. They’ve left out those committed by the Congolese military, and other local and foreign militias. </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>A close look at the UN report indicates that the experts struggle to document atrocities in a timely manner. It took more than a year to document violence in South Kivu and Ituri that erupted in 2017 and this is happening in Maindombe. </p>
<p>UN experts shouldn’t see violence in eastern the DRC as solely tit-for-tat militia confrontations, and fail to account for their motivations to resort to violence. For instance, some armed groups in the east exist to chase out those seen as “foreigners”. </p>
<p>A simplified perspective won’t help to bring peace if the negative role played by security services is superficially covered. Moreover, the DRC has failed to establish a comprehensive disarmament and demobilisation scheme.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208774/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Delphin R. Ntanyoma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The causes of violence in the DRC are complex. Narrowing them down to the single lens of ethnicity can be misleading.Delphin R. Ntanyoma, Visiting Researcher, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1934662022-11-09T10:46:01Z2022-11-09T10:46:01ZKenya violence: 5 key drivers of the decades-long conflict in the north and what to do about them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493785/original/file-20221107-17-abds3d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivan Lieman/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conflict and insecurity are prevalent in northern Kenya. In <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/news/11-including-eight-police-officers-killed-in-turkana-banditry-3960774">recent weeks</a>, cases of <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/turkana/armed-bandits-injure-two-pupils-in-raids-on-primary-schools-4005286">bandit attacks</a> in the region have left villages terrorised and led to several deaths. In October 2022, the government <a href="https://www.pd.co.ke/news/police-recover-firearms-ammunitions-152470/">launched</a> a multi-agency security operation aimed at curbing further attacks. </p>
<p>Northern Kenya is characterised by a wide expanse of wilderness, harsh climate and low levels of development. The region borders Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda. </p>
<iframe title="Kenya’s northern region" aria-label="Locator maps" id="datawrapper-chart-PI7YV" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PI7YV/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="650" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>Instances of conflict and insecurity range from attacks by armed bandits and cattle rustlers to community disputes over resources and terrorism. The region covers about <a href="https://www.knbs.or.ke/?wpdmpro=2019-kenya-population-and-housing-census-volume-i-population-by-county-and-sub-county">60% of Kenya’s geographical territory</a>. It is occupied by about 18% of the country’s population. </p>
<p>Pastoralism is the <a href="https://pastoralismjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13570-019-0144-x">main economic activity</a>. Others include irrigated agriculture, small-scale businesses and tourism-related activities. The region is largely <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/769351587711204889/pdf/Social-Economic-Blueprint-for-the-Frontier-Counties-Development-Council-2018-2030.pdf">isolated</a> from the rest of the country due to poor infrastructure, including roads. </p>
<p>According to National Police Service <a href="https://www.nationalpolice.go.ke/crime-statistics.html?download=95:annual-report-2021">crime statistics</a>, between January and December 2021, 73% of the country’s stock theft raids occurred in the northern region. Over the same period, 58% of the illegal arms recovered and surrendered to the government were from northern Kenya. </p>
<p>The government – <a href="https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/turkana/government-declares-total-war-on-bandits-in-north-rift-3819718">past</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHP-Q6Ygaxo">present</a> – has run numerous operations to address the violence in the region, which threatens Kenya’s overall security. But it hasn’t worked. </p>
<p>As a professor of political science who researches conflict, I’ve had the region on my radar for some time. In my assessment, violent conflict in northern Kenya is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03056240600671324">driven</a> by five key factors that must be addressed by both state and non-state agencies.</p>
<h2>1. Regional inequality, exclusion and marginalisation</h2>
<p><a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/15570/EIR%2036_Conflict_analysis_of_Northern_Kenya.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">Inequality</a> between regions in Kenya is caused by decades of political, economic and social exclusion and marginalisation. This is a product of colonial and post-colonial state policies that have led to <a href="https://www.unicnairobi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Leave-no-one-behind-_Kenya-March-2022.pdf">historical injustices and human rights abuses</a>. </p>
<p>Colonial authorities <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137558305_4">neglected</a> Kenya’s arid and semi-arid regions by prioritising development in the country’s natural resource-endowed highlands. Successive post-independence governments continued to pursue <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137558305_4">policies</a> that further <a href="https://www.reinvent-kenya.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Study-to-Examine-the-Influence-of-Contemporary-Islamic-Ideologies-in-Kenya-Target-Counties-Mandera-Garissa-Marsabit-and-Isiolo.pdf">marginalised</a> the north. This has damaged trust in state institutions and produced communal grievances that hinder inter-group unity. </p>
<p>Post-colonial state security actors have also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17539153.2018.1498190?src=recsys">disproportionately targeted</a> Somali inhabitants in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism measures in the north. The main terrorist threat comes from the <a href="https://oxfordre.com/africanhistory/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190277734.001.0001/acrefore-9780190277734-e-785?rskey=cj1t0b&result=1">Somalia-based Al-Shabaab</a> group. </p>
<p>In 2010, Kenya <a href="https://countytoolkit.devolution.go.ke/basics-of-devolution">decentralised power</a> by allocating funds and responsibilities to its 47 county governments. This was aimed at improving service delivery at the regional level. While this has <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/15570/EIR%2036_Conflict_analysis_of_Northern_Kenya.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">begun to address</a> northern Kenya’s marginalisation, repressive security operations continue to fan inter-group conflicts and radicalisation to violent extremism. The use of force in these operations disproportionately targets marginalised communities.</p>
<h2>2. Resource and environmental factors</h2>
<p>Disputes over land, access to pasture, and <a href="https://www.iri.org/resources/the-struggle-for-pluralism-and-peace-legitimacy-conflict-and-governance-in-two-kenyan-wards/">conflicts between herders and farmers</a> continue to drive violence in Kenya’s north. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.unicnairobi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Leave-no-one-behind-_Kenya-March-2022.pdf">Competition for scarce resources</a>, such as <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/kenya/drought-and-conflict-laikipia-kenya">pasture</a>, water and now <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-17513488">oil</a>, has worsened these disputes.</p>
<p>Kenya announced it had discovered oil in Turkana County in 2012. Oil exploration has introduced new tensions between resident Turkana and Pokot ethnic groups, and within the Turkana community. Some members of the Turkana believe that the community has not substantially benefited from the resource exploitation. </p>
<p>A rise in crimes like <a href="https://www.unicnairobi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Leave-no-one-behind-_Kenya-March-2022.pdf">highway robberies</a> is attributed to these communal conflicts. </p>
<h2>3. Political power struggles</h2>
<p>Power struggles between politicians have fuelled conflict along ethnic lines in the north. </p>
<p>Elective political posts are perceived to provide access to economic resources. Devolving power to the counties along with <a href="https://www.unicnairobi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Leave-no-one-behind-_Kenya-March-2022.pdf">political alliances</a> have helped to decentralise political power and the provision of essential services. However, they have intensified local-level political competition. Politicians incite inter-clan rivalry, escalating tensions and undermining the benefits of devolution. </p>
<h2>4. Cultural practices</h2>
<p>Cultural practices contribute to violence in northern Kenya. These practices largely manifest through cattle rustling. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalpolice.go.ke/crime-statistics.html?download=95:annual-report-2021">Cattle rustling and stock theft</a> are partly driven by economic motives. These include a desire to restock herds depleted by a lack of pasture and water during droughts. Cattle rustling also provides an opportunity to make money from trading in stolen animals. </p>
<p>Cultural practices such as <a href="https://www.nrt-kenya.org/news-2/2018/6/20/stolen-cattle-returned-in-peaceful-handover-ceremony">marriage settlements</a> also drive cattle rustling. </p>
<p>This disrupts community livelihoods, and the use of automatic weapons in raids has led to a <a href="https://www.unicnairobi.org/news-and-events/leave-no-one-behind-peace-and-conflict-through-the-eyes-of-those-at-risk-of-being-left-behind-report/">high number of deaths</a>. State-led disarmament efforts have had little effect. </p>
<h2>5. Proliferation of small arms and weapons</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nationalpolice.go.ke/crime-statistics.html?download=95:annual-report-2021">proliferation of weapons</a> in the region is, to a large extent, caused by <a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/15570/EIR%2036_Conflict_analysis_of_Northern_Kenya.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">cross-border activities</a>. </p>
<p>Kenya’s borders with Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda are porous and have contributed to the increase in small arms, illicit trade in cattle, terrorism and other forms of organised crime. </p>
<p>Efforts by the state to manage domestic and cross-border conflicts through repressive disarmament operations have instead increased tensions between borderland communities and the state. </p>
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<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>State security agencies have the constitutional mandate to use force to deter and disrupt acts of violence that are a threat to national security. However, their methods are often formal and based on power. </p>
<p>Non-state actors, on the other hand, adopt informal methods that are widely accepted in local communities. They are based on mutual trust and are therefore seen as more legitimate. </p>
<p>Both state and non-state actors have the resources, technical expertise and experience to address the drivers of conflict in Kenya’s northern region. A flexible approach that involves various actors can broadly contribute to good governance, and reduce conflict and security incidences. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/training-local-leaders-in-mediation-can-reduce-violence-positive-results-in-nigeria-183746">Training local leaders in mediation can reduce violence: positive results in Nigeria</a>
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<p>This approach would entail all parties working together to promote dialogue, education and peacemaking. It also would include ensuring inclusive political representation in local-level traditional conflict management approaches.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oscar Gakuo Mwangi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conflict is prevalent in the region characterised by harsh climate, vast wilderness and low levels of development.Oscar Gakuo Mwangi, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of RwandaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581492021-05-06T13:26:03Z2021-05-06T13:26:03ZPeacebuilding in Côte d’Ivoire: why it’s hard to reintegrate combatants and achieve justice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398953/original/file-20210505-19-1xmcdhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social reintegration and personal reconciliation should be paramount in post-conflict Cote d'Ivoire </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-walk-past-barricades-and-burning-tires-on-the-news-photo/110173388?adppopup=true">Issouf Sanogo/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A decade ago the Ivoirian government, with the help of the United Nations, started programmes to build peace after nine years of war. The conflict ended after President Alassane Ouattara was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/15/alassane-ouattara-ivory-coast">brought to power</a> with the help of Forces Nouvelles rebels and French and UN troops. </p>
<p>Côte d’Ivoire has not returned to war. But elections in <a href="https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/166266/cote-divoire-ruling-coalition-wins-municipal-and-regional-elections-update-6">2018</a> and <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/48878/cote-divoire-alassane-ouattara-re-elected-for-a-3rd-term-with-94-27/">2020</a> were marred by <a href="https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/166266/cote-divoire-ruling-coalition-wins-municipal-and-regional-elections-update-6">violence</a>.</p>
<p>Many Ivoirians claim much remains to be done to unite the country.</p>
<p>Post-conflict countries often implement recovery programmes. One type is known as disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration. It involves collecting weapons, dismantling armed groups and reintegrating combatants into civilian society. Countries may also work towards holding perpetrators accountable. This “transitional justice” programme often involves truth and reconciliation commissions, prosecutions and reparations.</p>
<p>The success rate of these post-conflict programmes has been mixed. Some countries, like Angola and Spain, have avoided a thorough engagement with past human rights abuses and war-era crimes. They also managed to <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2021/04/05/angola-celebrates-19-years-of-peace-and-the-end-of-armes-conflicts//">maintain peace</a> long after the conflict ended. South Africa <a href="https://www.beyondintractability.org/library/reconciliation-through-restorative-justice-analyzing-south-africas-truth-and-reconciliation">claims</a> its truth and reconciliation commission and transitional justice programmes helped prevent a recurrence of conflict. Demobilising programmes have often been viewed with scepticism for failing to reintegrate combatants into society – <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrs/article/33/4/832/5902023">the Democratic Republic of Congo</a>, Iraq and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/westafrica0405/7.htm">Liberia</a> are examples.</p>
<p>Cote d'Ivoire implemented both the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration and the transitional justice types of programmes. Past <a href="https://www.corteidh.or.cr/tablas/r25604.pdf">research indicated</a> that these types might be more effective if they worked more closely together rather than always being isolated. But Cote d'Ivoire opted to keep them apart. I set out to explore why. </p>
<p>I spent 12 months in 2017-2018 <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13533312.2020.1850281">researching</a> the implementation and success, or lack thereof, of the programmes in Côte d’Ivoire. I found that generally civilians, victims and ex-combatants were dissatisfied by both programmes and the way they had been implemented. </p>
<p>Also, it was highly likely that a more coordinated approach would have addressed many of their grievances. </p>
<p>Coordination was not implemented, however, for three main reasons. It posed a risk of destabilisation; it was not in the interests of political elites; and it was too technically challenging. These obstacles underscore the need for a more nuanced approach that takes into account the local context and the political dynamics of a post-conflict state. </p>
<h2>The post-conflict period</h2>
<p>After the Ivoirian conflict, the government first established a programme to demobilise, disarm and reintegrate combatants from both sides of the conflict. It also aimed to prepare them for civilian life. Simultaneously, the government set up several programmes intended to assist with reconciliation. The most prominent was the dialogue, truth and reconciliation commission. This sought to take testimony from Ivoirians and to provide reparations to victims. It was also intended to produce a report providing the truth about the war.</p>
<p>When I interviewed Ivoirian civilians, victims and ex-combatants in nine cities, I found that many were disappointed. Although there were some ex-combatants who fought on the losing side and were pleased to have post-conflict assistance, the vast majority of ex-combatants were frustrated. The absence of sustained financial help or provision of employment infuriated them. Many pro-Ouattara combatants complained that they had been unable to socially or economically reintegrate because they were viewed with suspicion by many residents. </p>
<p>Equally, those who had participated in the truth and reconciliation commission felt it had failed to foster reconciliation. Victims, civilians and ex-combatants were angry that the government had not followed through on the commission’s <a href="http://www.gouv.ci/doc/presse/1477497207RAPPORT%20FINAL_CDVR.pdf">findings</a>. These included suggestions that the rule of law should be reinforced in the management of land sales. This has long been a contentious issue in Cote d'Ivoire. The findings also indicated that an impartial and fair legal system would be essential to reconciliation. Ivoirians didn’t like the fact that the commission’s report was not released for several years after it was given to the president. </p>
<p>They also felt <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2018/02/28/how-selective-justice-eroding-peace-cote-d-ivoire">prosecutions</a> and arrests for war-era crimes were one-sided. Opposition supporters were arrested en masse, while very few pro-Ouattara supporters have been prosecuted for their role in the conflict. </p>
<p>Ethnic tensions persisted and fear of a further conflict was evident in many of the towns I visited. </p>
<h2>What went wrong?</h2>
<p>Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, and transitional justice, have historically been implemented in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14678800903395999">silos</a>. It is assumed that the former will serve the needs of ex-combatants and the latter will aid victims and that there is no need for coordination. </p>
<p>In fact, UN <a href="https://www.un.org/ruleoflaw/files/TJ_Guidance_Note_March_2010FINAL.pdf">policy guidance</a> and a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrs/article-abstract/27/2/234/1580786">majority</a> of <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.521.2396&rep=rep1&type=pdf">scholarship</a> in this field calls for increased linkages to ensure their success. </p>
<p>External advisors and UN officials I interviewed in Côte d’Ivoire said they tried to get the Ivoirian government to link its programmes. These efforts were repeatedly ignored. </p>
<p>Through interviewing policymakers and government officials, I found three core reasons related to the political context. </p>
<h2>Political obstacles to coordination</h2>
<p>Most prominently, there was a significant risk of destabilisation where coordination was attempted. Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, and transitional justice are, in some respects, contradictory processes. One reintegrates ex-combatants while the other seeks to hold them accountable, which is likely to prompt them to spoil the peace. Bringing these programmes together was dangerous in Côte d’Ivoire, where former warlords were prominent and powerful. </p>
<p>Secondly, there was an absence of political will to coordinate programmes. The government’s post-war priorities centred on presenting a positive image to the international community and attracting foreign investment, as well as shoring up support for itself and marginalising the opposition. Demobilising combatants was evidence of this. Transitional justice might have uncovered the crimes committed by the government and marginalised powerful figures on whom the government depended. </p>
<p>Finally, there were considerable technical challenges to coordinating programmes.</p>
<h2>What should be done</h2>
<p>These findings indicate a need for the UN to reconsider its emphasis on coordinating reintegration and transitional justice irrespective of the post-war context. Instead, political dynamics must be accounted for. </p>
<p>A more practical option might be to coordinate programmes at a local level. These could focus on social reintegration and personal reconciliation, rather than seeking to coordinate all the aspects of both mechanisms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Moody received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council while she was conducting field research for this article. </span></em></p>Based on the Cote d'Ivoire experience, the United Nations must reconsider its emphasis on coordinating reintegration and transitional justice irrespective of the post-war context.Jessica Moody, PhD Candidate and Freelance Political Risk Analyst, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807222017-07-18T00:29:14Z2017-07-18T00:29:14ZEngaging Colombia’s students may be key to long-term peace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178537/original/file-20170717-6091-4hww64.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A FARC member waves a white peace flag to commemorate the completion of their disarmament.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Fernando Vergara</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The end of violence does not always <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470672532.wbepp189/abstract">constitute peace</a>. </p>
<p>In June, Colombian officials announced that members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia had <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-colombia-disarmament-20170627-story.html">officially disarmed</a> and become civilians after turning over the last of their weapons. This comes after the militant group signed a <a href="http://www.altocomisionadoparalapaz.gov.co/procesos-y-conversaciones/Paginas/Texto-completo-del-Acuerdo-Final-para-la-Terminacion-del-conflicto.aspx">peace accord</a> with the government in 2016.</p>
<p>Steps are being taken to promote truth, justice and reparations, and to <a href="https://www.ictj.org/our-work/transitional-justice-issues/truth-and-memory">remember victims</a> of a conflict that saw the deaths of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/25/colombia-conflict-death-toll-commission">220,000 Colombians</a>. </p>
<p>But is this enough?</p>
<p>While incidents of violence have <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Colombia-Sees-Drop-in-Violence-Due-to-FARC-Cease-Fire-UN-Says-20150820-0017.html">dropped dramatically across Colombia</a>, a recent bombing at a <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/22519/bogota-bombing-who-benefits-from-renewed-political-violence-in-colombia">popular shopping center in Bogota</a> indicates the challenge of achieving and sustaining peace remains. Colombia’s peace is fragile, and the country <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/confronting-evil-9780199300709?cc=us&lang=en&">is at risk for future violence</a> due to its more than 50-year history of violent conflict, the instability in neighboring Venezuela and unresolved internal tensions between reintegration of FARC combatants and justice for victims.</p>
<p><a href="http://naspaa.org/JPAEMessenger/Article/vol22-4/04_Rubaii%2020160916.pdf">My research</a> on <a href="https://www.binghamton.edu/i-gmap/index.html">genocide and mass atrocity prevention</a> and teaching methods shows that education at all levels can play a vital role in promoting peace.</p>
<p>Colombian universities, in particular, have an opportunity to prepare the next generation of political and business leaders to be agents of peace and social change. To do this, both public and private universities may need to rethink both what and how they teach. Having <a href="http://college.cengage.com/business/resources/casestudies/students/swif.pdf">students work in diverse groups</a> to research and write about real events in communities close to them can be a powerful tool for learning and developing peace-building skills. It could also serve as a model for other post-conflict zones, such as Rwanda or Bosnia and Herzegovina. </p>
<h2>Engaging students to build peace</h2>
<p>Unlike other post-conflict countries where universities have been destroyed, Colombia’s higher education system <a href="http://www.chronicle.com/blogs/worldwise/winds-of-change-in-colombia/28286">remains strong</a>. As such, it can help with the transition to peace if education leaders are willing to be creative. Public and private universities throughout Colombia are adding courses and degree programs to include information about the provisions of the peace accord and how to respond to past atrocities. This is part of a process known as “<a href="https://www.ictj.org/our-work/regions-and-countries/colombia">transitional justice</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/178529/original/file-20170717-13577-1jagaqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A speaker at Universidad de los Andes in Colombia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usaid_images/8697540345/in/album-72157633372205379/">USAID/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Adding new content to college curricula is a good first step. But building a peaceful society requires educators to place greater emphasis on promoting dialogue, listening and teamwork among students from different backgrounds. It means getting students to engage collaboratively with the community to define and resolve problems together.</p>
<p>These skills are often promoted by civil society organizations <a href="http://www.rethinkinstitute.org/files/Civil%20Society%20Conference%20Web.pdf">dedicated to peace-building</a>, but they have largely been missing from university teaching, which continues to rely on traditional lecture methods.</p>
<p>One way to promote these skills in the classroom is to present students with an issue, or a “case,” to discuss in depth. To be effective and meaningful, these cases need to be relevant to the challenges facing students and, in my opinion, instill <a href="http://naspaa.org/JPAEMessenger/Article/VOL23-2/JPAE%2023_02_20170420_04_Mudida.pdf">hope for a better future</a>.</p>
<p>However, <a href="http://www.naspaa.org/JPAEMessenger/Article/VOL23-1/JPAE%2023_01%2020170118%2005_Careaga.pdf">almost all cases</a> in public policy have been written by authors at U.S. universities and set in U.S. organizations. A case about recruiting volunteers for a nonprofit organization in Ohio lacks relevance in Colombia. A growing number of cases are international or comparative, but few are set in Colombia or comparable contexts. Colombia’s situation is so unique that these cases are rendered ineffective.</p>
<p>So what can be done? My colleagues and I studied the effectiveness of having students research and write their own cases. Student-written cases provide a powerful teaching method to address both the lack of relevant cases and the need for developing dialogue, listening, collaboration and problem-solving skills. </p>
<p>In this setup, students work in teams deliberately structured to include geographic, gender, ethnic and professional diversity. Together they research and write a case that would demonstrate if and how concepts such as transparency, accountability, trust and justice apply within a Colombian community or organization. </p>
<p>As students write, the faculty guide the process. Faculty help students select a topic and setting. They make sure the topic is neither too broad or narrow. They help students gain access to essential people and documents. And they help students solve problems and edit the case to make it meaningful for others. </p>
<p>We used slightly different applications of student-written cases in our courses at three universities in Bogotá and Medellin – <a href="http://uniandes.edu.co/">Universidad de los Andes</a>, <a href="http://www.javeriana.edu.co/home#.WUwb-mwm7jY">Pontificia Universidad Javeriana</a> and <a href="http://www.eafit.edu.co/">Universidad EAFIT</a>. Many top political and business leaders are educated in these schools.</p>
<p>Over the course of a semester, one group of students developed a case about an existing program to promote leadership skills among children and youth in a rural area. In the past, these young people had turned to violence. The program taught them to work together.</p>
<p>In the process of writing the case, the students saw potential for similar programs elsewhere. During armed conflict, children are often the victims of violence and then become <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-armed-conflict.pdf">perpetrators of violence</a>. Whether in Colombia or in the United States, when young people have no hope for a normal life with a job and family, they blame the “other side.” Hatred and violence <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/chicago-youth-peace-combat-violence/3945373.html">continue</a>. Lasting peace requires a sense of hope and some trust in communities. This case demonstrated how a local program could overcome distrust and build hope through dialogue and leadership development.</p>
<p>This case and the others written by Colombian students had all of the benefits that cases usually have in terms of the application of theory to practice. More than that, they also provided opportunities to work in teams, collaborate across differences and learn from each other, all of which will be essential skills in advancing a sustainable peace. The students said the experience was more rewarding and more applicable to their future because they worked in diverse groups. </p>
<h2>Expanding teaching methods</h2>
<p>While this research was done in the context of graduate-level programs in private universities in Colombia, it has much wider applicability. Lasting peace requires that individuals and groups from all segments of society, and students in all academic fields, understand the history of violence and be skilled in recognizing and stopping signs of its return.</p>
<p>When educators and students across countries and disciplines become partners in promoting peace, chances of preventing future mass atrocities will improve. Student-written cases and other teaching methods that promote dialogue and collaboration can be an important part of this process.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadia Rubaii received funding from the U.S. State Department's Fulbright Scholar program for the 2013-14 academic year during which time she taught at Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Bogota, Colombia, and conducted this research project. </span></em></p>Ending violence is only a first step. Research from Colombian universities sheds light on the role of education in peace-building.Nadia Rubaii, Co-Director, Institute for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention, and Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793172017-06-21T15:19:33Z2017-06-21T15:19:33ZWhy ex-combatants pose a threat to Côte d’Ivoire’s stability<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174022/original/file-20170615-23537-17eka4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A soldier stands guard after a clash with demobilised ex-rebel fighters at the entrance of Bouaké,Côte d'Ivoire, 23 May 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Abdul Fatai </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dissatisfied ex-combatants who aren’t serving in Côte d’Ivoire’s formal military structures pose the biggest long-term threat to the stability of the country. This is particularly true in regions where groups of these men were present during the civil wars.</p>
<p>At least 42,564 ex-combatants <a href="http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4912a5832.pdf">emerged</a> out of Côte d’Ivoire’s <a href="http://www.war-memorial.net/Civil-War-in-C%C3%B4te-d-Ivoire--3.248">first</a> civil war which stretched from 2002 to 2007. By the end of the <a href="https://www.insightonconflict.org/conflicts/ivory-coast/conflict-profile/">second</a> civil war, which started in 2010 and ended in 2011, the number of ex-combatants had risen to <a href="https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/provision/demobilization-ouagadougou-political-agreement-opa#footnoteref17_ems8269">74,000</a>. </p>
<p>The Ivorian government set out to integrate only about <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39933868">8,400 ex-combatants</a> into the national army. The majority of ex-combatants were supposed to go through a regular disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programme. The programme <a href="http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/issues/ddr.shtml">was designed to</a> remove weapons from combatants and take them out of military structures by helping them to integrate socially and economically into society. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/newsFr/storyF.asp?NewsID=39695#.WUlcpXdh3oz">UN claims</a> that the programme in Cote d'Ivoire has been successful. But recent protests and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/ex-combattants-face-uncertain-future-in-ivory-coast/1659849.html">reports of disorder</a> perpetuated by ex-combatants in Bouaké are evidence that the process hasn’t been seamless. Former combatants – particularly those who weren’t enlisted in the army – continue to pose a threat to the country’s stability. </p>
<p>But the government’s efforts at integrating former combantants into the national army hasn’t worked particularly well either as was evident recently when they <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/01/06/ivory-coast-ex-combatants-seize-weapons-and-takeover-former-rebel-city//">mutinied</a>. Their demand for financial bonuses, which they said had been promised to them, was only resolved after the government offered to pay them a total of <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/05/17/cote-divoire-the-mutiny-may-be-over-but-the-armys-problems-are-not/">about</a> $12,000.</p>
<p>This had a ripple effect, and set off a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/clashes-between-ivory-coast-police-ex-rebels-leave-three-dead">new wave of violence</a> by ex-combatants enrolled in the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme. They too wanted payment from the government.</p>
<p>The reason for these episodes is therefore down to the different incentives and opportunities offered to both groups. </p>
<h2>A recurring issue</h2>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/isqu.12186/full">Research</a> into the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programmes has highlighted some serious flaws. The programmes don’t sufficiently address the destitute state that ex-combatants find themselves in. This problem doesn’t just affect Côte d’Ivoire. It’s been a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-amnesty-efforts-in-the-niger-delta-triggered-new-violence-74085">recurring issue</a> in conflict affected societies where similar programmes have been applied, such as Nigeria, <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/report/95045/nepal-%22disqualified%22-maoist-ex-combatants-threaten-step-protests">Nepal</a> and <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201207190363.html">Angola</a>. </p>
<p>Côte d’Ivoirian <a href="http://koaci.com/cote-divoire-demobilises-testent-nouvelle-fois-forces-lordre-gesco-109510.html">ex-combatants</a> that carried out the recent protests aren’t interested in the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme. This is because many of them face an uncertain future with dim job prospects. And their situation seems much worse than their compatriots who have been integrated in the military, securing jobs and financial rewards. </p>
<p>This issue needs to be addressed to reduce the risks of conflict recurrence and instability in Côte d’Ivoire.</p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0361-3666.2005.00323.x/epdf">Research</a> shows that cash payments, known as reinsertion grants, are an important component of these kinds of programmes. Payments ensure that ex-combatants don’t burden their families and communities. In some instances, this is a one-off grant. In most cases, ex-combatants get an agreed sum that could last up to 12 months. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-amnesty-efforts-in-the-niger-delta-triggered-new-violence-74085">In Nigeria</a> ex-combatants have received monthly payments for more than five years. But this is an exception.</p>
<p>In addition to these financial payments, ex-combatants receive vocational training. In principle, the grants are terminated at the end of it. Ex-combatants are expected to find jobs based on the skills they have gained. The results have been mixed. <a href="https://onuci.unmissions.org/en/ex-combatants-received-training-certificates-masonry-carpentry-electricity-and-plumbing-unoci">UN reports</a> that many ex-combatants gained new skills but that these didn’t translate into employment for all of them. </p>
<h2>Reintegration in Côte d’Ivoire</h2>
<p>The first programme in Côte d’Ivoire was part of a <a href="http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1609">UN resolution</a> to facilitate the reintegration of ex-combatants that participated in the first Ivorian civil war.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.unddr.org/country-overview/cote-d-ivoire_4.aspx">plan</a> stated that ex-combatants would be entitled to a reinsertion grant of 499,500 CFA (USD$850) over a period of six months. At the end of demobilisation, ex-combatants interested in resuming studies would receive an additional education grant. Those interested in entrepreneurship or agricultural projects would receive micro-credit loans ranging from $170 to $300 per individual.</p>
<p>Violence broke out again in 2010 <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20101221-ivory-coast-fear-violence-abidjan-gbagbo-resists-international-pressure-ouattara">after</a> Laurent Gbagbo refused to step down after losing the presidential election to Alassane Ouattara. Many ex-combatants rejoined armed factions, such as the <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/africa/iv-army-fafn.htm"><em>Forces Nouvelles</em></a>, to fight in the <a href="https://www.onwar.com/aced/chrono/c2000s/yr10/secondcivilwarivory2010.htm">second war</a>. This created the need for a <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/news/2012/06/29/will-ddr-work-time">new programme</a>. </p>
<p>Once he was in office Ouattara <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/feature/2011/10/05/rebranding-army">implemented reforms</a> to manage the armed groups that had been active in the second war. These included the integration of some rebel factions into the national army based on an <a href="https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/provision/demobilization-ouagadougou-political-agreement-opa">agreement</a> between the rebels and the Ivorian government. This was followed by the establishment of the Authority for Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration. Its focus is on ex-combatants who were not integrated into the national army. It provided transitional financial support and vocational training to facilitate their reintegration back into society. <a href="https://issafrica.org/events/view-on-africa-cote-divoire-which-challenges-remain-in-the-peacebuilding-process">Under it</a>, at least 90% of 74,000 ex-combatants were disarmed, demobilised and reintegrated. </p>
<p>But the recent incidents show that there are many groups that are dissatisfied and that there is still instability within the armed forces. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>It is important for the Ivorian government to design appropriate policies that reorient ex-combatants towards meaningful reintegration instead of renegotiating cash payments as a reward for their participation in the civil war. </p>
<p>In Colombia, for example, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-deforestation-peace-idUSKBN19102V">new approaches</a> that connect economic, political and social reintegration are beginning to take root. These allow ex-combatants to participate in issues such as environmental conservation and protection that are important to their communities, while earning a living. </p>
<p>This approach could prove useful in places such as Côte d’Ivoire as the country rethinks its reintegration programme. This is because reintegration is not just about finding jobs, but also about finding meaning and connecting ex-combatants to a purpose beyond the individual.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tarila Marclint Ebiede received funding from Marie Curie Sustainable Peacebuilding (SPBuild) fellowship, awarded within the Initial Training Network under the Marie Curie Action of the Seventh Framework Programme (F7) for his PhD research.</span></em></p>Côte d'Ivoire’s government needs to provide different incentives and opportunities to former combatants.Tarila Marclint Ebiede, PhD researcher, KU LeuvenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/738952017-03-13T07:31:02Z2017-03-13T07:31:02ZLatest threat to Colombia’s peace process: murders, a kidnapping, delays and, of course, politics<p><em><strong>This piece, originally published March 13 2017 under the headline “Can Colombia actually put its peace plan into action?”, has been updated to reflect the latest developments in Colombia’s stop-and-go peace process.</strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>A United Nations employee working on a coca-substitution project in Colombia <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/kidnapping-security-council-visit-colombia-170505012836097.html">was kidnapped</a> earlier this week by a dissident FARC faction, just prior to a UN Security Council visit to show support for the country’s peace deal. </p>
<p>This is only the latest violent mishap to endanger the fragile end of Colombia’s civil conflict. According to the UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, already this year <a href="https://www.terra.com.co/noticias/colombia/colombia-recibe-informe-de-onu-sobre-14-defensores-ddhh-asesinados-en-2017,362098cbeae80d5ad838840a8ad4f7cdy41jobd0.html">41 activists have been murdered in Colombia</a>. If assassinations continue at this pace, it will mark a significant uptick in activist killings since accords with the FARC guerrillas <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombia-has-a-new-peace-agreement-but-will-it-stick-69535">were signed late last year</a>.</p>
<p>The November 2016 agreement between the <a href="https://www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co/sites/default/files/24-1480106030.11-1480106030.2016nuevoacuerdofinal-1480106030.pdf">FARC and the Colombian government</a> has brought the promise of peace for the country and compelled an overall <a href="http://blog.cerac.org.co/monitor-del-cese-el-fuego-bilateral-y-de-hostilidades-6">significant reduction in FARC-related violence</a>. </p>
<p>But the FARC agreement has not implied a reduction in the military actions of other groups, such as the EPL, <a href="http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/nacional/combates-entre-eln-y-banda-criminal-dejan-304-desplazados-en-choco-articulo-683134">the ELN or right-wing warlords</a> (known in Colombia as paramilitaries). At least 80 <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/es/latest/news/2017/02/colombia-spike-in-killings-as-activists-targeted-amid-peace-process/">human rights activists</a> were assassinated in 2016, and some sources <a href="http://colombia2020.elespectador.com/pais/las-cifras-inciertas-del-numero-de-lideres-asesinados-en-2016">report more than 125</a>. The trend this year is worsening. </p>
<p>The road ahead is daunting for other reasons, too. Tensions are particularly flaring around <a href="http://m.eltiempo.com/politica/proceso-de-paz/estamos-quedados-en-implementacion-de-los-acuerdos/16754774/1">delays in implementing the accords</a> – that is, actually putting into action the decisions written down on paper. </p>
<p>Challenges setting up FARC “centralisation zones”, which will host guerrillas as they surrender their weapons and transition into civilian life, exemplify the predicament facing president Juan Manuel Santos’ government: implementing the agreements to change the course of Colombia’s history requires confronting the both the root causes and the nefarious outcomes of its 50-year armed conflict. </p>
<h2>Time to get to work</h2>
<p>The “<em>zonas de concentración</em>” (literally, concentration zones) are a central point in the sub-agreement on disarmament and reintegration. According to the peace accords, more than 20 camps <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xaTg43s_WxncdJDQkjN3aOX5b4A&ll=5.6227658678599655%2C-75.01487374999999&z=6">would be established across Colombia</a>, with oversight from the United Nations and security provided by the Colombian armed forces. </p>
<p>These camps represent the government’s commitment to defend the life and integrity of former rebels. They also, critically, demonstrate the Colombian state’s reassertion of the monopoly of violence in the country.</p>
<p>The government was supposed to have put in place the security protocols to operationalise this process within <a href="http://www.eltiempo.com/politica/proceso-de-paz/video/los-180-dias-del-desarme-de-las-farc/16684031">180 days of treaty ratification</a>, but UN specialists recently announced that the centralisation zones won’t be ready until <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xaTg43s_WxncdJDQkjN3aOX5b4A&ll=5.6227658678599655%2C-75.01487374999999&z=6">the end of March</a> and questioned the feasibility of the deadline. </p>
<p>The FARC has seized on these delays to <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/FARC-Begins-Disarmament-Despite-Bumpy-Peace-Process-20170301-0007.html">question Santos’ commitment</a> to implementing the agreements. But such claims ignore the fact that the government is indeed trying to follow through – it’s just struggling to do so in zones where other armed actors, including drug traffickers, still operate. </p>
<p>The government has put pressure on local institutions and is <a href="http://caracol.com.co/radio/2017/03/03/nacional/1488511114_864022.html">trying to mobilise actors, resources and plans</a>, but it’s not clear that state institutions have the capacity to fulfil their mandate. </p>
<p>To make matter worse, some politicians, including the influential former president Álvaro Uribe, <a href="http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/uribe-revela-su-plataforma-de-campana-articulo-682451">have campaigned against the FARC agreements</a>. “Repeal and renegotiate” has become a rallying cry for conservative candidates in the 2018 presidential election (though they’re oddly silent about the assassinations of activists), and the possibility of change in the executive is making risk-averse bureaucrats <a href="http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/paz/ausentismo-marco-en-senado-debate-sobre-la-jep-que-se-votara-el-lunes-articulo-683668">slower to act than usual</a>. </p>
<p>Such uncertainty risks mobilising dissidents within the FARC and justifying their assertions that the government’s commitment to peace is flagging. </p>
<h2>Local weaknesses</h2>
<p>In truth, the challenges in implementing the accords are more indicative of the major difference in capacity between the national government and local state institutions. </p>
<p>The centralisation camps are setting up shop, logically, in areas where the FARC had formerly exerted its influence. But because they used to be controlled by the FARC, local government in these areas is fragile. </p>
<p>The Santos administration is confronting the reality of trying to work with sectors of its own state that are ineffective, <a href="http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/condimento-para-las-farc-facturado-a-25000-20-gramos/518016">corrupt</a>, slow and still easily captured by armed non-state or fringe actors. The issue of feeble local governments was foreseeable, and it <a href="http://www.rcnradio.com/locales/humberto-la-calle-manifesto-la-debilidad-institucional-colombia-puede-afectar-la-implementacion-los-acuerdos/">informed the peace negotiations</a>, but the capacity gap between the national government and provincial institutions is clearly greater than anticipated. </p>
<p>Understanding the difference between the concepts of the government and the state is key. The former refers to the current executive leadership (the Santos administration), the latter to Colombia’s national institutions and to the political apparatus in a particular territory. </p>
<p>Colombia finds itself in the uncomfortable position of having a government that wants to implement the peace agreements it signed but a state that’s either too weak or too peripheral to execute orders. </p>
<p>Blaming the government for the slow pace of the peace process, as the FARC leadership has done, ignores these profound structural problems – problems they helped create. Not only are weak state institutions primarily responsible for the delays, but they’re also the reason guerrilla groups like the FARC came about in the first place – and then weakened them further. </p>
<p>The high legislative and executive capacity present in the capital of Bogota, home to a national government capable of embarking on an ambitious project like peace, is in stark contrast with provincial institutions. In remote areas, many governments have proven unable to provide essential services to the people (education, water, roads), and have been vulnerable to being replaced, controlled or influenced by armed actors. </p>
<p>Armed groups have been surpassing the capacity of the state in far-flung regions for over a century (the secession of Panama from Colombia between 1899 and 1902 <a href="http://www.banrepcultural.org/node/32506">being a prime early example</a>).</p>
<p>Consecutive administrations since the mid-20th century have tried, and failed, to fully reunify state institutions and reestablish the monopoly of violence across all Colombia’s territory. Implementing the FARC peace agreement, and any future agreement with <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-colombias-most-stubborn-rebel-group-agree-to-peace-71835">other guerilla groups now in negotiations</a>, once again offers this opportunity – and embody this challenge. </p>
<p>Herein lies Colombia’s great contradiction: internal conflict engendered a feeble state, and today, as the country seeks to enable its most powerful guerilla group to lay down arms, that institutional weakness is a monumental hurdle. If the nation succeeds in setting up the FARC centralisation camps, Colombia may find peace in spite of itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabio Andrés Díaz Pabón does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Delays in setting up disarmament camps for former guerillas have cast doubt on the Colombian government’s commitment to peace. But the real problem is its national history.Fabio Andrés Díaz Pabón, Researcher on Conflict, Peace and Development, International Institute of Social StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/585672016-06-29T10:59:20Z2016-06-29T10:59:20ZBikini islanders still deal with fallout of US nuclear tests, more than 70 years later<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127827/original/image-20160622-7154-1ilmm3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'A-Day' marked the first of 23 atomic bomb explosions at Bikini.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/10561812725">Department of Energy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1946, French fashion designer Jacques Heim released a woman’s swimsuit he called the “Atome” (French for “atom”) – a name selected to suggest its design would be as shocking to people that summer as the atomic bombings of Japan had been the summer before.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127818/original/image-20160622-7203-3ruapq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The scandalous ‘Bikini,’ small enough to fit in a matchbox like the one she’s holding.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not to be outdone, competitor Louis Réard raised the stakes, quickly releasing an even more skimpy swimsuit. The Vatican found Réard’s swimsuit more than shocking, declaring it to actually be “<a href="http://www.kmswimwear.com/swimwear-timeline/">sinful</a>.” So what did Réard consider an appropriate name for his creation? He called it the “<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/fashion/2013/07/history_of_the_bikini_how_it_came_to_america.html">Bikini</a>” – a name meant to shock people even more than “Atome.” But why was this name so shocking?</p>
<p>In the summer of 1946, “Bikini” was all over the news. It’s the name of a small atoll – a circular group of coral islands – within the remote mid-Pacific island chain called the Marshall Islands. The United States had <a href="http://www.rmiembassyus.org/History.htm">assumed control</a> of the former Japanese territory after the end of World War II, just a few months earlier.</p>
<p>The United States soon came up with some very big plans for the little atoll of Bikini. After forcing the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/27/a-ground-zero-forgotten/">167 residents</a> to relocate to another atoll, they started to prepare Bikini as an atomic bomb test site. Two test bombings scheduled for that summer were intended to be very visible demonstrations of the United States’ newly acquired nuclear might. <a href="http://time.com/3881386/able-and-baker-photos-from-atomic-bomb-tests-july-1946/">Media coverage</a> of the happenings at Bikini was extensive, and public interest ran very high. Who could have foreseen that even now – 70 years later – the Marshall Islanders would still be suffering the aftershocks from the nuclear bomb testing on Bikini Atoll?</p>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d54947715.810362644!2d105.33242446439374!3d16.125137160675283!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x644c2180a24fadbf%3A0x4c3f21ce9753a027!2sBikini+Atoll!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1466621329499" width="100%" height="450" frameborder="0" style="border:0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<h2>The big plan for tiny Bikini</h2>
<p>According to the testing schedule, the U.S. plan was to demolish a 95-vessel <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/flash/july/bikini46.htm">fleet of obsolete warships</a> on June 30, 1946 with an airdropped atomic bomb. Reporters, U.S. politicians, and representatives from the major governments of the world would witness events from distant <a href="http://time.com/3881386/able-and-baker-photos-from-atomic-bomb-tests-july-1946/">observation ships</a>. On July 24, a second bomb, this time detonated underwater, would destroy any surviving naval vessels.</p>
<p>These two sequential tests were intended to allow comparison of air-detonated versus underwater-detonated atomic bombs in terms of destructive power to warships. The very future of naval warfare in the advent of the atomic bomb was in the balance. Many assumed the tests would clearly show that <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Operation-Crossroads-Atomic-Tests-Bikini/dp/1557509190">naval ships were now obsolete</a>, and that air forces represented the future of global warfare.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MV3fQterjEg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Slow motion film of atomic bomb airdropped on Bikini Atoll.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But when June 30 arrived, the airdrop bombing didn’t go as planned. The bomber <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2002/aug/06/travelnews.nuclearindustry.environment">missed his target by more than a third of a mile</a>, so the bomb caused much less ship damage than anticipated.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/x_LrBm5oVRk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Color film of underwater atomic bomb near Marshall Islands.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The subsequent underwater bomb detonation didn’t go so well either. It unexpectedly produced a spray of highly radioactive water that extensively contaminated everything it landed on. Naval inspectors couldn’t even return to the area to assess ship damage because of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKH437o14vA">threat of deadly radiation doses</a> from the bomb’s “<a href="https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-blast">fallout</a>” – the radioactivity produced by the explosion. All future bomb testing was canceled until the military could evaluate what had gone wrong and come up with another testing strategy.</p>
<h2>And even more bombings to follow</h2>
<p>The United States did not, however, abandon little Bikini. It had even bigger plans with bigger bombs in mind. Ultimately, there would be 23 Bikini test bombings, spread over 12 years, comparing different bomb sizes, before the United States finally moved nuclear bomb testing to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY">other locations</a>, leaving Bikini to recover as best it could.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127830/original/image-20160622-7158-1n1hzb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">1956 Operation Redwing bombing at Enewetak Atoll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nv.doe.gov/library/photos/photodetails.aspx?ID=1060">National Nuclear Security Administration / Nevada Field Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most dramatic change in the testing at Bikini occurred in 1954, when the bomb designs switched from fission to fusion mechanisms. <a href="http://science.howstuffworks.com/nuclear-bomb4.htm">Fission bombs</a> – the type dropped on Japan – explode when heavy elements like uranium split apart. <a href="http://www.livescience.com/53280-hydrogen-bomb-vs-atomic-bomb.html">Fusion bombs</a>, in contrast, explode when light atoms like deuterium join together. Fusion bombs, often called “hydrogen” or “thermonuclear” bombs, can produce much larger explosions.</p>
<p>The United States military learned about the power of fusion energy the hard way, when they first tested a fusion bomb on Bikini. Based on the expected size of the explosion, a swath of the Pacific Ocean the size of Wisconsin was blockaded to protect ships from entering the fallout zone.</p>
<p>On March 1, 1954, the bomb detonated just as planned – but still there were a couple of problems. The bomb turned out to be 1,100 times larger than the Hiroshima bomb, rather than the expected 450 times. And the prevailing westerly winds turned out to be stronger than meteorologists had predicted. The result? Widespread fallout contamination to islands hundreds of miles downwind from the test site and, consequently, <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10691.html">high radiation exposures to the Marshall Islanders</a> who lived on them.</p>
<h2>Dealing with the fallout, for decades</h2>
<p>Three days after the detonation of the bomb, radioactive dust had settled on the ground of downwind islands to depths up to half an inch. Natives from badly contaminated islands were evacuated to Kwajalein – an upwind, uncontaminated atoll that was home to a large U.S. military base – where their health status was assessed.</p>
<p>Residents of the Rongelap Atoll – Bikini’s downwind neighbor – received particularly high radiation doses. They had burns on their skin and depressed blood counts. Islanders from other atolls did not receive doses high enough to induce such symptoms. However, as I explain in my book <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10691.html">“Strange Glow: The Story of Radiation,”</a> even those who didn’t have any radiation sickness at the time received doses high enough to put them at increased cancer risk, particularly for thyroid cancers and leukemia.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127822/original/image-20160622-7170-hcoj8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Marshall Islands resident has his body levels of radioactivity checked in a U.S. government lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/argonne/8167845013">Argonne National Laboratory</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://majuro.usembassy.gov/legacy.html">What happened to the Marshall Islanders next</a> is a sad story of their constant relocation from island to island, trying to avoid the radioactivity that lingered for decades. Over the years following the testing, the Marshall Islanders living on the fallout-contaminated islands ended up breathing, absorbing, drinking and eating considerable amounts of radioactivity.</p>
<p>In the 1960s, cancers started to appear among the islanders. For almost 50 years, the United States government studied their health and provided medical care. But the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-human-radiation-experiments-9780195107920?cc=us&lang=en">government study ended in 1998</a>, and the islanders were then expected to find their own medical care and submit their radiation-related health bills to a <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/filmmore/reference/primary/tribunal.html">Nuclear Claims Tribunal</a>, in order to collect compensation.</p>
<h2>Marshall Islanders still waiting for justice</h2>
<p>By 2009, the Nuclear Claims Tribunal, funded by Congress and overseen by Marshall Islands judges to pay compensation for radiation-related health and property claims, exhausted its allocated funds with <a href="http://majuro.usembassy.gov/legacy.html#_compensation">US$45.8 million in personal injury claims</a> still owed the victims. At present, about half of the valid claimants have died waiting for their compensation. Congress shows no inclination to replenish the empty fund, so it’s unlikely the remaining survivors will ever see their money.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127833/original/image-20160622-7154-1d7gidm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ten years after bombing ended, the U.S. government assured Marshall Islanders a safe return.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/10561566153/">Department of Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if the Marshall Islanders cannot get financial compensation, perhaps they can still win a moral victory. They hope to force the United States and eight other nuclear weapons states into keeping another broken promise, this one made via the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/">Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons</a>.</p>
<p>This international agreement between <a href="http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/npt">191 sovereign nations</a> entered into force in 1970 and was renewed indefinitely in 1995. It aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and work toward disarmament. </p>
<p>In 2014, the Marshall Islands claimed that the nine nuclear-armed nations – China, Britain, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the United States – have not fulfilled their treaty obligations. The Marshall Islanders are <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-03-07/marshall-islands-begins-world-court-nuclear-disarmament-case">seeking legal action</a> in the United Nations International Court of Justice in The Hague. They’ve asked the court to require these countries to take substantive action toward nuclear disarmament. Despite the fact that India, North Korea, Israel and Pakistan are not among the 191 nations that are signatories of the treaty, the Marshall Islands’ suit still contends that these four nations “have the obligation under customary international law to pursue [disarmament] negotiations in good faith.”</p>
<p>The process is currently stalled due to jurisdictional squabbling. Regardless, experts in international law say the <a href="https://armscontrollaw.com/2014/04/24/marshall-islands-brings-lawsuits-against-all-nine-nuclear-weapons-possessing-states-in-the-international-court-of-justice/">prospects for success</a> through this David versus Goliath approach are slim.</p>
<p>But even if they don’t win in the courtroom, the Marshall Islands might shame these nations in the court of public opinion and draw new attention to the dire human consequences of nuclear weapons. That in itself can be counted as a small victory, for a people who have seldom been on the winning side of anything. Time will tell how this all turns out, but more than 70 years since the first bomb test, the Marshall Islanders are well accustomed to waiting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Jorgensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the summer of 1946, the U.S. government detonated the first of many atomic bomb tests in the Marshall Islands. Seventy years of radiation exposure later, residents are still fighting for justice.Timothy J. Jorgensen, Director of the Health Physics and Radiation Protection Graduate Program and Associate Professor of Radiation Medicine, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/582622016-06-16T09:57:22Z2016-06-16T09:57:22ZLosing control: The dangers of killer robots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125442/original/image-20160606-13040-16h7t1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Should we act to prevent this from ever happening?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-312599078/stock-photo-sci-fi-fantasy-d-robot-the-killer-with-titaniumn-amor.html">Armed robot via shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New technology could lead humans to relinquish control over decisions to use lethal force. As artificial intelligence advances, the possibility that machines could independently select and fire on targets is <a href="http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/">fast approaching</a>. Fully autonomous weapons, also known as “killer robots,” are quickly moving from the realm of science fiction toward reality.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125440/original/image-20160606-13061-7be5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The unmanned Sea Hunter gets underway. At present it sails without weapons, but it exemplifies the move toward greater autonomy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sea_Hunter_gets_underway_on_the_Willamette_River_following_a_christening_ceremony_in_Portland,_Ore._(25702146834).jpg">U.S. Navy/John F. Williams</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These weapons, which could operate on land, in the air or at sea, threaten to revolutionize armed conflict and law enforcement in alarming ways. <a href="http://www.unog.ch/80256EDD006B8954/%28httpAssets%29/54B1B7A616EA1D10C1257CCC00478A59/$file/Article_Arkin_LAWS.pdf">Proponents say these killer robots are necessary</a> because modern combat moves so quickly, and because having robots do the fighting would keep soldiers and police officers out of harm’s way. But the threats to humanity would outweigh any military or law enforcement benefits. </p>
<p>Removing humans from the targeting decision would create a dangerous world. Machines would make life-and-death determinations outside of human control. The risk of disproportionate harm or erroneous targeting of civilians would increase. No person could be held responsible. </p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/supporting_resources/11.2013_memo_to_ccw_delegates_fully_autonomous_weapons.pdf">moral, legal and accountability risks</a> of fully autonomous weapons, preempting their development, production and use cannot wait. The best way to handle this threat is an international, legally binding ban on weapons that lack meaningful human control.</p>
<h2>Preserving empathy and judgment</h2>
<p>At least <a href="http://www.unog.ch/80256EE600585943/%28httpPages%29/37D51189AC4FB6E1C1257F4D004CAFB2?OpenDocument">20 countries have expressed in U.N. meetings</a> the belief that humans should dictate the selection and engagement of targets. Many of them have echoed <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/04/11/killer-robots-and-concept-meaningful-human-control">arguments laid out in a new report</a>, of which I was the lead author. The report was released in April by <a href="http://www.hrw.org">Human Rights Watch</a> and the <a href="http://hrp.law.harvard.edu/">Harvard Law School International Human Rights Clinic</a>, two organizations that have been campaigning for a ban on fully autonomous weapons.</p>
<p>Retaining human control over weapons is a <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G13/127/76/PDF/G1312776.pdf?OpenElement">moral imperative</a>. Because they possess empathy, people can feel the emotional weight of harming another individual. Their respect for human dignity can – and should – serve as a check on killing. </p>
<p>Robots, by contrast, lack real emotions, including compassion. In addition, inanimate machines could not truly understand the value of any human life they chose to take. Allowing them to determine when to use force would undermine human dignity. </p>
<p>Human control also promotes compliance with international law, which is designed to protect civilians and soldiers alike. For example, the laws of war <a href="https://www.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Article.xsp?action=openDocument&documentId=4BEBD9920AE0AEAEC12563CD0051DC9E">prohibit disproportionate attacks</a> in which expected civilian harm outweighs anticipated military advantage. Humans can apply their judgment, based on past experience and moral considerations, and make case-by-case determinations about proportionality. </p>
<p>It would be almost impossible, however, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/Advancing%20the%20Debate_8May2014_Final.pdf">to replicate that judgment in fully autonomous weapons</a>, and they could not be preprogrammed to handle all scenarios. As a result, these weapons would be unable to act as “<a href="http://www.icty.org/sid/10052">reasonable commanders</a>,” the traditional legal standard for handling complex and unforeseeable situations. </p>
<p>In addition, the loss of human control would threaten a target’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/arms0514_ForUpload_0.pdf">right not to be arbitrarily deprived of life</a>. Upholding this fundamental human right is an obligation during law enforcement as well as military operations. Judgment calls are required to assess the necessity of an attack, and humans are better positioned than machines to make them.</p>
<h2>Promoting accountability</h2>
<p>Keeping a human in the loop on decisions to use force further ensures that <a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/arms0415_ForUpload_0.pdf">accountability for unlawful acts</a> is possible. Under international criminal law, a human operator would in most cases escape liability for the harm caused by a weapon that acted independently. Unless he or she intentionally used a fully autonomous weapon to commit a crime, it would be unfair and legally problematic to hold the operator responsible for the actions of a robot that the operator could neither prevent nor punish.</p>
<p>There are additional obstacles to finding programmers and manufacturers of fully autonomous weapons liable under civil law, in which a victim files a lawsuit against an alleged wrongdoer. The United States, for example, establishes <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/487/500/case.html">immunity for most weapons manufacturers</a>. It also has high standards for proving a product was defective in a way that would make a manufacturer legally responsible. In any case, victims from other countries would likely lack the access and money to sue a foreign entity. The gap in accountability would weaken deterrence of unlawful acts and leave victims unsatisfied that someone was punished for their suffering. </p>
<h2>An opportunity to seize</h2>
<p>At a U.N. meeting in Geneva in April, <a href="http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/ccw/2016/meeting-experts-laws/documents/DraftRecommendations_15April_final.pdf">94 countries recommended beginning formal discussions</a> about “lethal autonomous weapons systems.” The talks would consider whether these systems should be restricted under the <a href="http://www.unog.ch/80256EE600585943/%28httpPages%29/4F0DEF093B4860B4C1257180004B1B30?OpenDocument">Convention on Conventional Weapons</a>, a disarmament treaty that has regulated or banned several other types of weapons, including incendiary weapons and blinding lasers. The nations that have joined the treaty will meet in December for a review conference to set their agenda for future work. It is crucial that the members agree to start a formal process on lethal autonomous weapons systems in 2017.</p>
<p>Disarmament law provides precedent for requiring human control over weapons. For example, the international community adopted the widely accepted treaties banning <a href="https://www.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/450?OpenDocument">biological weapons</a>, <a href="https://www.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/553?OpenDocument">chemical weapons</a> and <a href="https://www.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/580">landmines</a> in large part because of humans’ inability to exercise adequate control over their effects. Countries should now prohibit fully autonomous weapons, which would pose an equal or greater humanitarian risk.</p>
<p>At the December review conference, countries that have joined the Convention on Conventional Weapons should take concrete steps toward that goal. They should initiate negotiations of a new international agreement to address fully autonomous weapons, moving beyond general expressions of concern to specific action. They should set aside enough time in 2017 – at least several weeks – for substantive deliberations.</p>
<p>While the process of creating international law is notoriously slow, countries can move quickly to address the threats of fully autonomous weapons. They should seize the opportunity presented by the review conference because the alternative is unacceptable: Allowing technology to outpace diplomacy would produce dire and unparalleled humanitarian consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bonnie Docherty works as a senior researcher in the Arms Division of Human Rights Watch. </span></em></p>Machines that can target and kill people without human intervention or accountability pose a moral threat to the world.Bonnie Docherty, Lecturer on Law, Senior Clinical Instructor at Harvard Law School's International Human Rights Clinic, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/454912015-08-05T20:18:00Z2015-08-05T20:18:00ZBan the bomb: 70 years on, the nuclear threat looms as large as ever<p>On this day 70 years ago, the world and the preconditions for its health and survival changed forever. A crude bomb containing 60 kilograms of highly enriched uranium exploded 580 metres <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/6/newsid_3602000/3602189.stm">above Hiroshima</a>. Equivalent to 15,000 tons of TNT, it was 2000 times more powerful than the British Grand Slam bomb, the largest produced until then.</p>
<p>The moral threshold of catastrophic attacks with indiscriminate weapons had already been crossed, with <a href="http://www.firstworldwar.com/weaponry/gas.htm">poison gas</a> killing 90,000 and maiming or blinding one million men in the European killing fields of the first world war. This was followed by indiscriminate <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_bombing_of_cities#World_War_II">aerial bombing of cities</a> during the second world war.</p>
<p>Nowhere was the bombing more extensive than in Japan. Between March and August 1945, 66 Japanese cities, with populations down to 30,000 inhabitants, were <a href="http://ww2db.com/battle_spec.php?battle_id=217">systematically bombed</a> by an average of 500 bombers carrying 4000-5000 tons of bombs per city. In <a href="http://www.wired.com/2011/03/0309incendiary-bombs-kill-100000-tokyo/">Tokyo on March 9-10</a>, an estimated 120,000 civilians died in the bombing and subsequent fires.</p>
<h2>The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki</h2>
<p>Rumours had been circulating in Hiroshima that the city was being saved for something special. It was. The burst of ionising radiation, blast, heat and subsequent firestorm that engulfed the city on August 6 killed 140,000 people by the end of 1945. Many were incinerated or dismembered instantly; others succumbed over hours, days, weeks and months from cruel combinations of traumatic <a href="http://hiroshima.australiandoctor.com.au/#c1">injury, burns and radiation sickness</a>.</p>
<p>Three days later, another B-29 carrying a bomb equivalent to 21,000 tons of TNT headed for Kokura. Because of clouds blocking visibility, its cargo was <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/august/9/newsid_3580000/3580143.stm">dropped over Nagasaki</a> instead, raining similar radioactive ruin and killing 90,000 people by the end of 1945.</p>
<p>In both cities, ground temperatures reached about 7000° Celsius. Radioactive black rain poured down after the explosions.</p>
<p>In both weapons, less than one kilogram of material was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon#Fission_weapons">fissioned</a>. The physics of the Hiroshima bomb were so simple and predictable that the bomb was not tested prior to use. The Nagasaki plutonium bomb required a more sophisticated design. A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)">prototype was exploded</a> at Alamogordo in New Mexico on July 16, 1945, detonated by Australian nuclear physicist <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/titterton-sir-ernest-william-973">Ernest Titterton</a>.</p>
<p>The survivors of the two bombings bore the legacy of terrible injuries and scars on top of the cataclysmic trauma of what they witnessed. They also faced discrimination and ostracism, reduced opportunities for employment and marriage, and increased risks of cancer and chronic disease, which stalk them, even 70 years later, for the rest of their days. </p>
<p>Over the past 30 years I have had the privilege of visiting Hiroshima and Nagasaki on a number of occasions. What never ceases to amaze me is the extraordinary compassion, wisdom and humbling humanity of <a href="http://www.hibakushastories.org/who-are-the-hibakusha/">hibakusha</a>. Never have I heard even the slightest hint of an understandable desire for revenge or retribution. </p>
<h2>An unfulfilled quest</h2>
<p>The constant yearning of hibakusha is that no-one else should ever suffer as they have suffered: nuclear weapons must be removed from the face of the earth.</p>
<p>In the newly established United Nations, there was the same understanding. The first resolution passed at the first meeting of the UN General Assembly in London in January 1946 <a href="http://docs.nrdc.org/nuclear/files/nuc_08319501a_150.pdf">established a commission</a> to draw up a plan “for the elimination of national armaments of atomic weapons”.</p>
<p>Today, there is ample cause for existential despair and a poor prognosis for human custodianship of the biosphere. No nuclear disarmament negotiations are in train. Even reduced from their Cold War peak, massively bloated <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/trident-debate-there-are-16000-nuclear-missiles-in-the-world---but-who-has-them-and-does-britain-really-need-its-own-arsenal-10164387.html">nuclear arsenals</a> of 15,650 weapons jeopardise not only the living but those yet to be born. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=876&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=876&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=876&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1101&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1101&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90702/original/image-20150804-15134-1izncv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1101&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today’s global nuclear arsenal would still not be exhausted were the equivalent of the Hiroshima bomb detonated every two hours for 70 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:B-61_bomb_rack.jpg">Wikimedia Commons/US Defence Department</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Were one Hiroshima bomb to be detonated every two hours from the end of 1945, the global arsenal would not yet be consumed. All the nuclear-armed states continue to invest massively in development and modernisation of their arsenals. In the <a href="http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/disarmament-fora/cd">Conference on Disarmament</a>, it has not been possible to agree even on an agenda for 19 years.</p>
<p>The five-yearly review conference of the nuclear <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons#Recent_and_coming_events">Non-Proliferation Treaty</a>, the principal treaty regulating nuclear weapons and legally binding nuclear-armed states to disarm, recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-failed-effort-to-ban-the-ultimate-weapon-of-mass-destruction-42722">ended in failure</a>. Britain, Canada and the US (acting for Israel, not even a party to the treaty), refused to accept a March 2016 deadline for a conference, promised for 20 years, to discuss a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, conflict in Ukraine and Crimea has re-inflamed Cold War risks of armed confrontation and nuclear war between NATO and Russia.</p>
<p>However, there are grounds to be hopeful about decisive progress on a circuit-breaker. The first ever <a href="http://peaceandhealthblog.com/hinw/">intergovernmental conferences</a> on the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons have been held – three in the past two years. These have led to 113 nations signing a <a href="https://ippnweupdate.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/hinw14vienna_pledge_document.pdf">humanitarian pledge</a> committing them to work to fill the legal gap for the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>In a welcome development, the recent ALP national conference <a href="http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/australianlaborparty/pages/121/attachments/original/1365135867/Labor_National_Platform.pdf?1365135867">adopted a policy</a> that recognises that eliminating nuclear weapons is a humanitarian imperative. The policy commits Labor to support negotiation of a global treaty banning nuclear weapons.</p>
<h2>Other treaties show the way</h2>
<p>States without nuclear weapons cannot eliminate them. But the dictates of common humanity, democracy, common interest and common sense, based on all people everywhere being vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts of nuclear weapons, can lead to disarmament.</p>
<p>As happened with <a href="http://www.icbl.org/en-gb/the-treaty.aspx">landmines</a> and <a href="http://www.clusterconvention.org/">cluster munitions</a>, like <a href="http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Bio/">biological</a> and <a href="http://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/chemical/">chemical</a> weapons before them, unacceptable weapons can be prohibited as a necessary condition for their elimination. In the face of recalcitrant nuclear-armed states claiming a unique right to cling determinedly to their weapons of terror, concluding a ban treaty is the most practical next step the rest of the world can take.</p>
<p>In 1969, President Richard Nixon surprised many when he <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/general-article/weapon-nixon-ends/">ordered an end</a> to the US biological weapons program. The US Defence Department, which had previously declared that biological weapons lacked military usefulness, supported this.</p>
<p>As the then-UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, Angela Kane, <a href="http://www.nziia.org.nz/Portals/285/documents/lists/259/HR%20statement%20to%20NZIIA.pdf">said</a> last year:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How many states today boast that they are “biological-weapon states” or “chemical-weapon states”? Who is arguing now that bubonic plague or polio are legitimate to use as weapons under any circumstance, whether in an attack or in retaliation? Who speaks of a bioweapon umbrella?</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M8_Ppz0sp6U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Then UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Angela Kane discusses the challenges of eliminating nuclear weapons.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet all these things and more are claimed regarding nuclear weapons, far more destructive and indiscriminate than these other weapons.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://unterm.un.org/dgaacs/unterm.nsf/8fa942046ff7601c85256983007ca4d8/4a06cf2e96f76cc68525706d006bfe8e?OpenDocument">appealing</a> to the 1982 UN Second Special Session on Disarmament, Hiroshima Mayor Takeshi Araki said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hiroshima is not merely a witness of history. Hiroshima is an endless warning for the future of humankind. If Hiroshima is ever forgotten, it is evident that the mistake will be repeated and bring human history to an end.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nagasaki Mayor Hitoshi Motoshima <a href="http://www.mayorsforpeace.org/english/activities/newsletter/01.pdf">added</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nagasaki has to be forever the last city in the world bombed by nuclear weapons!</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On the 70th anniversary of the bombings, banning nuclear weapons is long overdue. The remaining survivors should see negotiations on a ban treaty underway by the time a new year dawns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tilman Ruff is affiliated with International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (Nobel Peace Prize 1985), the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, and the Medical Association for Prevention of War (Australia).</span></em></p>Today’s nuclear arsenals are so powerful that dropping a Hiroshima-size bomb every two hours for 70 years would not exhaust their destructive capacity. The global disarmament regime is broken.Tilman Ruff, Associate Professor, International Education and Learning Unit, Nossal Institute for Global Health, School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/361342015-02-26T19:30:23Z2015-02-26T19:30:23ZThe Pacific region lives up to its name with disarming success<p>Recent headlines are clear: our world is a fearful place, spattered with blood, angry men and loose guns. But not everywhere.</p>
<p>One sprawling region has largely avoided, and at times even reversed, the steady proliferation of illegal firearms and death by gunshot. Twelve out of 16 Pacific Islands Forum nations are patrolled by routinely <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/compare/10/police_use_of_firearms/221,64,95,236,114,123,128,132,140,143,155,164,184,188,197">unarmed police</a>. Ten have no military. With little or no opposition, island communities of the south-west Pacific have both resolved in law and been actively encouraged to remain unarmed.</p>
<p>This is no mere accident. When the nine-year war of secession in Bougainville ended in 1997, as many as 12,000 to 15,000 people <a href="http://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/003785333">had died</a>. Since then, Pacific governments have done their best to disarm the neighbourhood.</p>
<p>That’s quite a change. Decades ago Australia stocked the state armouries of newly independent Papua New Guinea with many thousands of assault rifles and handguns. Later, Canberra was dismayed to learn that three-quarters of the country’s police and military firearms were <a href="http://www.academia.edu/2330465/Gun-running_in_Papua_New_Guinea_From_Arrows_to_Assault_Weapons_in_the_Southern_Highlands">no longer on the books</a>. By then, from the PNG Highlands to Bougainville, from the Solomon Islands to Fiji, guns given to governments had fuelled a <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/9176">string</a> of military coups and mutinies, tribal and ethnic violence, rising armed crime and gun homicide.</p>
<p>As realisation dawned with the new century, the clean-up began. Pacific nations forged a largely unnoticed but, in retrospect, startling regional consensus, which now sets us apart from much of the world.</p>
<h2>Taking a different path in a world full of arms</h2>
<p>Instead of rushing in more guns to restore peace, in Melanesia we tried the opposite. For the rule of law and human rights to be re-established, for health care and justice to be accessible, for good work to proceed in a safe environment, firearms were seen as the most immediate impediment to recovery and redevelopment.</p>
<p>In 2001, deliberately <a href="https://www.academia.edu/9718329/Richard_Gehrmann_2015_Australian_Unarmed_Peacekeepers_on_Bougainville_1997_2003_co-authored_with_Matt_Grant_and_Samantha_Rose_Peace_Review_vol._27_no._1_forthcoming_2015_">unarmed peacemakers</a> and a locally designed Bougainville peace process tied disarmament and weapons disposal to aspirations for political autonomy and independence. Many guns were locked away and shootings are now rare.</p>
<p>Police and military armouries in a dozen Pacific states, some of them no more than tin shacks, became a sudden <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/9174">priority of donor nations</a>. Australia and New Zealand deployed advisers, construction crews and millions of dollars to lock up and, in many cases, to destroy guns held by their Pacific Island neighbours. </p>
<p>Canberra quietly began to persuade and later to assist and fund the Papua New Guinea Defence Force (PNGDF) to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/2330585/Papua_New_Guinea_Small_numbers_big_fuss_real_results">destroy more than one-third</a> of its small arms. The PNGDF went on to achieve one of the highest firearm destruction ratios of any military force in the world.</p>
<p>By 2003, when the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) landed in Honiara to help the country out of crisis, the <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:2ZP86qApDvkJ:www.ramsi.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/040323-Nation-Security-Conference-Operation-Helpem-Fren-Special-Coordinator-Nick-Warner.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us">number one priority</a> of Pacific governments – remarkably, with no audible argument – was the immediate collection and destruction of every firearm, both police and civilian. Amid overwhelming public support, more guns were destroyed than the country <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/499">even knew it had</a>. By law, Solomon Islands is now a gun-free nation; only a handful of specially trained police are permitted to carry firearms.</p>
<h2>Gun controls do make a difference</h2>
<p>What I’m calling the “Pacific consensus for disarmament” became a trend, and not just in the islands. Australia, the region’s big brother nation, led by its most conservative leader in decades and described by then-president George W. Bush as <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3196524.stm">America’s sheriff</a> in Southeast Asia, did what remains unthinkable in the United States. Australia banned the semi-automatic rifles originally advertised by the gun trade as “assault weapons”, along with rapid-fire shotguns and handgun types favoured by criminals.</p>
<p>Shocked by a string of mass shootings, in which 100 people were killed, Australians turned on their gun culture. Amid polls showing up to 95% popular approval, two federally funded firearm buybacks and dozens of smaller, police-led gun amnesties sent more than <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/cp/australia">a million firearms</a>, or one-third of the country’s privately held guns, to the smelter.</p>
<p>More than 18 years after <a href="http://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/australia.php">firearm laws were tightened</a> – in which time a <a href="http://www.4bc.com.au/news/gun-law-needs-review-20141218-12afmn.html">minority have continued</a> to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/john-howard-slams-calls-for-relaxation-of-gun-laws-20141218-129xif.html">push for a relaxation</a> – the risk of dying by gunshot in Australia remains <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/compareyears/10/total_number_of_gun_deaths">less than half</a> what it was. Until five months ago, when a gun owner <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/what-led-to-the-death-of-kim-and-geoff-hunt-and-their-children-20140911-10f5ih.html">shot dead</a> four members of his family and then himself, those years also passed without a mass shooting.</p>
<p>Domestic gun-control measures and foreign policy moved in tandem as Australia and New Zealand, hubs for Pacific commerce, clamped down on the island arms trade. New Zealand denied an export permit to ship ammunition to a Vanuatu gun dealer for fear of fuelling ethnic violence in the Solomon Islands. Australia choked off <a href="http://exkiap.net/news/tribal_fighting.htm">exports to Papua New Guinea</a>, creating such a shortage of bullets that mercenary gunmen in the Southern Highlands complained of difficulty servicing their clients. </p>
<p>Although they remain the largest players in the local arms trade, New Zealand and Australia now contribute more to arms control in Oceania than to arms proliferation.</p>
<h2>Flow of weapons fuels killings and war</h2>
<p>And here’s the contrast. Earlier this month, US President Barack Obama once again <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31279621">mulled shipping firearms to Ukraine</a>. Across the Middle East, the standard response to conflict has been to fly in more guns to enforce peace.</p>
<p>In just one case in Iraq, Washington’s own Government Accountability Office found that 200,000 assault rifles and Glock pistols newly imported for US allies <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/05/AR2007080501299.html">could no longer be found</a>. In the CIA’s own terminology, “blowback” means that today’s freedom fighter could be tomorrow’s criminal, or even terrorist.</p>
<p>But here’s the more Pacific approach. In 2006 a regional intervention force landed in Dili, the capital of Australia’s island neighbour East Timor. Its first priority was to disarm the Timorese military and police, then to strip local gangs of their weapons. “We will be disarming everybody in Dili,” <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-05-28/troops-will-disarm-all-timorese-commander/1764348">said</a> Brigadier Mick Slater. Two months later, peacekeepers were confident that most illegal firearms had been surrendered.</p>
<p>Granted, Pacific neighbours all tend to be good friends, with no nearby conflict zones or arms-trafficking routes. Organised crime, cocaine and opium cultivation have not thrived. Aside from a post office worker importing a couple of hundred <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/post-office-smuggling-case-220-guns-imported-20120313-1uz1j.html">Glock pistols for Australian criminals</a>, no interdiction agency can point to a sizeable shipment of illegal small arms or ammunition reaching this region since the 1980s.</p>
<p>Australia has an ant trade – one or two guns at a time, often smuggled in parts via US Mail – but a quirk of calibre spared us the “AK-47 plagues” of Africa and South Asia. Global alliances dictate that Pacific law enforcement and military choose NATO-calibre firearms and ammunition. After local police and soldiers supplied the most destructive firearms used in crime and conflict, and after even a PNG police minister <a href="http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/9175">admitted</a> “indiscriminate sale of ammunition to the public” by police officers, it was easy to see supply dictating demand. </p>
<p>In Oceania, ammunition to fit Eastern Bloc weapons is very rare. And without bullets, even an AK-47 is just a club.</p>
<p>Clearly our points of difference as a region and as Pacific people created today’s pacific climate. But which difference is key? Are we less violent people? </p>
<p>Interviewed about lethal crime in America, eminent criminologist Franklin Zimring <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/America-A-Nation-Of-Killers-2906244.php">discounted that notion</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You’re just as likely to get punched in the mouth in a bar in Sydney as in a bar in Los Angeles. But you’re 20 times as likely to be killed in Los Angeles.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The difference, Zimring said, is guns.</p>
<p>Oceania has quite unconsciously forged a new attitude, all on its own. For the time being at least, we’ve re-written a popular American slogan. Our regional bumper sticker now reads:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>An unarmed society is a polite society.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Alpers receives funding from the United Nations Trust Facility Supporting Cooperation on Arms Regulation, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. He does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He has no other relevant affiliations.</span></em></p>One sprawling region stands apart for having largely avoided, and at times even reversed, the steady global proliferation of illegal firearms and death by gunshot.Philip Alpers, Adjunct Associate Professor, Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/321582014-09-26T01:26:11Z2014-09-26T01:26:11ZA day to demand that the world wake up and avert nuclear doom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60011/original/hxz6v26q-1411624115.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world has seen what two small atom bombs did to Japan. Today thousands of nuclear weapons threaten us all with catastrophe.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AAtomic_cloud_over_Hiroshima_(from_Matsuyama).jpg">Wikimedia/509th Operations Group</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two odd facts. First, the United Nations General Assembly <a href="http://www.un.org/en/events/nuclearweaponelimination/">has declared</a> today, September 26, the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.</p>
<p>You might yawn. Why bother? That’s never going to happen, you say. It’s too hard.</p>
<p>The Americans/Chinese/Russians/ … won’t let it happen. Oh, and we might need nuclear weapons one day. Anyway, hasn’t that been done before? </p>
<p>Well, no, today is a first. Never before in more than almost seven decades of nuclear threat has the <a href="http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2014/sgsm16194.doc.htm">UN led the world in observing a day</a> dedicated to this goal.</p>
<p>Secondly, in March last year, the Norwegian government hosted the first ever International <a href="http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/selected-topics/humanitarian-efforts/humimpact_2013.html?id=708603">Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons</a>. The first ever. </p>
<p>Surely that must be wrong, you might say. Surely everyone knows about the appalling human consequences of nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>But it turns out that’s not the case. While 127 governments sent delegations, the governments of the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/sc/members/">five permanent members</a> of the UN Security Council – all of which happen to have nuclear weapons – declined to attend.</p>
<h2>Nuclear club makes mockery of disarmament</h2>
<p>This is all very well, these nuclear-armed governments said (and Australia echoed), nuclear war would be a terrible thing. But, they said, focusing on the harm to humans and the impossibility of any serious medical response will only distract attention from the important work on disarmament, which is going so well.</p>
<p>Yet implementation of the legally binding commitment to disarm that the nuclear-armed nations <a href="http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml">made 44 years ago</a> is nowhere in sight. All of them are still investing massively in retaining indefinitely and modernising their nuclear arsenals. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Disarmament">UN Conference on Disarmament</a> has produced nothing and not even been able to agree on an agenda - for 18 years.</p>
<p>All under control? With 4765 nuclear <a href="http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/">weapons in the US arsenal</a>? And slightly more in total on the Russian side? And between them 1800 ready to be launched at any moment? Plus Britain, France and China with 200-300 each; and India, Pakistan and Israel with 80-120 each?</p>
<p>With numbers like these we need a lot more action. In fact, we need to dismantle this unstable monster of mass extermination. Now.</p>
<h2>A war too terrible to contemplate</h2>
<p>The Norwegian conference was the first attempt in the 68 years since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki">first nuclear war</a> to get governments to talk about the obvious: that nuclear war will be catastrophic. Full stop. Not just for the hundreds of thousands or many, many more immediate and lingering victims of blast, fire and radiation. But now proven catastrophic beyond doubt for the planet as a whole.</p>
<p>Smoke from burning cities lofted into the upper atmosphere would encircle the globe; cool, darken and dry the earth for decades; and devastate agriculture. Worldwide famine would result on a scale never witnessed before – affecting billions of people. The grim reality is that nuclear weapons pose the greatest danger that we face of abrupt, catastrophic climate disruption.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/60117/original/7xn2jhgj-1411694547.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=745&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The Norwegian government – which some irritated Australian diplomats have been known to refer to as “an NGO with money” – are pretty up-front about what they want. The Oslo conference, a second, larger <a href="http://www.sre.gob.mx/en/index.php/humanimpact-nayarit-2014">conference in Mexico</a> earlier this year and a <a href="http://www.bmeia.gv.at/en/european-foreign-policy/disarmament/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-weapons-and-nuclear-terrorism/vienna-conference-on-the-humanitarian-impact-of-nuclear-weapons/">third in Vienna</a> this December share two aims. </p>
<p>The first is to get governments talking about the effects of nuclear weapons on their citizens beyond the abstract theory and jargon of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory">“deterrence”</a>. This is a mantra held over from the Cold War that daily risks annihilation and consigns hope for change to the political freezer. </p>
<p>Look at the evidence of the humanitarian consequences, the Norwegians say. Look at the impossibility of any effective medical response, say the Red Cross. Think about basing policy on the most acute threat we face on evidence rather than wishful thinking and myth, say the Mexicans. Get your public health, emergency service, agriculture and science people thinking about it, not just the military people, say the Austrians.</p>
<h2>Non-nuclear majority must make a stand</h2>
<p>The second aim is to stop the farce of endless pointless stalled disarmament discussions controlled by the nuclear-armed, with no intention of changing behaviour that suits a toxic constellation of vested interests quite well. The real goal needs to be to use the burgeoning global discussion about the catastrophic consequences of next use of nuclear weapons to kick-start a move for a total ban on nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>Like the bans on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_Treaty">landmines</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions">cluster munitions</a>, this will need to be led by those not wedded to the weapons. Indeed, it will have to be kicked off against the nuclear-armed shouting no, never, over our dead bodies. The treaty banning nuclear weapons would be signed first by the great majority of the world’s governments that do not possess and do not want nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>While that cannot immediately bind the nuclear-armed, it would constitute a powerful global statement of what is expected, an unequivocal norm of responsible behaviour against which the nuclear powers will have to explain and justify their non-compliance. Like the treaties banning <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/weapons/chemical-biological-weapons">biological and chemical weapons</a>, landmines and cluster munitions, it will change their behaviour, even for those not signed up. It’s the best next step that can be taken now by those who actually want to get rid of nuclear weapons.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">President Barack Obama envisions a world without nuclear weapons.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons is a good day to remind US President Barack Obama of that fine <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/apr/05/nuclear-weapons-barack-obama">promise he made in Prague</a> in May 2009, that his country would work towards a world free of nuclear weapons. It is a promise on which he has yet to deliver. And it will be a day to remind the Australian government that nuclear-free defence, without the figment of an American nuclear umbrella – which in reality is more a nuclear <a href="https://theconversation.com/fraser-says-get-us-forces-out-of-northern-australia-and-close-pine-gap-25980">bulls-eye</a> – would be a good start to the coming <a href="http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/">Defence White Paper</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Tanter is affiliated with the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons and serves on the board of ICAN Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tilman Ruff is affiliated with International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (1985 Nobel Peace Laureate) as a co-president, the Medical Association for Prevention of War and the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons as an ICAN Australia board member and International Steering Group member.</span></em></p>Two odd facts. First, the United Nations General Assembly has declared today, September 26, the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. You might yawn. Why bother? That’s never…Richard Tanter, Senior Research Associate, Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability and Professor, School of Social and Political Studies, The University of MelbourneTilman Ruff, Associate Professor, International Education and Learning Unit, Nossal Institute for Global Health, School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.