tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/disaster-25697/articlesDisaster – The Conversation2024-03-28T18:54:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268342024-03-28T18:54:32Z2024-03-28T18:54:32ZAfter the Baltimore bridge collapse, we need clear-eyed assessments of the risks to key infrastructure<p>Catastrophic collapses of major bridges are thankfully rare. Notable examples in the last couple of decades include the failure of the <a href="https://www.dot.state.mn.us/i35wbridge/collapse.html">I35-W in Minneapolis in August 2007</a>, and the collapse of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/genoa-bridge-collapse-maintaining-these-%20structures-is-a-constant-battle-against-traffic-and-decay-101627">Morandi bridge in Genoa 11 years later</a>. When such events do occur, public attention is understandably focused on the nature of the collapse, which can extend over hundreds of metres in seconds, and its underlying causes. </p>
<p>Whether because of an extreme loading event or an accident, these supposedly rare events in the life of a bridge still need to be assessed before they happen, and mitigation measures taken in accordance with all the potential consequences. This type of analysis is known as a “risk-based consequence assessment”. The cost of taking additional measures in the near term can prevent major adverse consequences further down the road.</p>
<p>With many of these structures being over 50 years old, we often hear that a bridge’s condition may have been compromised by deterioration and increased traffic loads – both in the size and frequency of vehicles. Also, older bridges were designed to standards that have been superseded by new knowledge and technology.</p>
<p>While these factors have helped convince some politicians to increase their infrastructure budgets, including through the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-%20releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal</a> in the US, the tendency has been to focus on stronger, more resilient new structures and on higher maintenance for existing structures. The latter makes it easy for politicians to show the money spent has had a positive impact, because it results in an overall reduction in the number of bridges classified as obsolete or deficient.</p>
<p>Given the enormous scale of the bridge maintenance problem – the American Road Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://theconversation.com/disasters-like-bridge-collapses-put-%20transportation-agencies-emergency-plans-to-the-test-207779">one in three US bridges needs repair</a> – it makes sense to spread available funding widely. However, this approach can have serious shortcomings if it does not set clear priorities based on the scale of potential consequences from accidents and failures.</p>
<p>One of the two central pylons of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)">Francis Scott Key bridge</a> in Baltimore was rammed by a 300m-long container ship at around 1.30am on March 24, leading to progressive collapse of the bridge’s entire <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truss_bridge">truss</a> within four seconds. </p>
<p>Although the 47-year-old bridge had been <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">found to be in a “fair” condition</a> during its most recent inspection in 2008, and was “fully up to code” according to Maryland’s governor after the collision, experts agreed that a catastrophic collapse <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-%20bridge-baltimore-condition-container-ship-what-we-know-how-collapse-happened/">was to be expected</a> given the magnitude of the ship’s impact. Maintenance workers were on the bridge at the time filling potholes, including the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68673146">six people who died</a>.</p>
<h2>Direct and indirect consequences</h2>
<p>Bridge collapses due to vessel collisions have happened before and unfortunately will happen again. In a similar incident in 1980, <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=20417">the Sunshine Skyway bridge in Tampa Bay</a>, also a steel truss structure, was hit by a barge, resulting in 35 casualties due to the collapse of over 400m (1,300ft) of its span. </p>
<p>Around the world, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials has reported 31 major bridge collapses <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102840">due to vessel collisions</a> between 1960 and 2002, resulting in 342 deaths.</p>
<p>The latest, the destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, has cut off one of three transport links across the Patapsco river in the busy Baltimore port area. Given its importance as a transport hub, this will have major economic implications that could have been anticipated. </p>
<p>More than 30,000 vehicles that were using the Key Bridge daily now have to seek alternative routes. Significantly, the other two local crossings are via tunnels, which imposes limits on the type of traffic that can cross the river because the transporting of hazardous materials through tunnels is prohibited.</p>
<p>Shipping traffic into and out of the Baltimore port has been suspended until further notice. Removal of the debris will be a complex operation, and work to ensure all vessel types can navigate the river safely will take time. Further restrictions will then need to be in place when the new bridge is constructed.</p>
<p>There are already signs that supply chains around the world are being affected by the bridge collapse, especially in the car and light truck sector, and in farm and construction machinery. </p>
<p>The economic consequences of this catastrophic event will be substantial at both city and state level. Early estimates on liability insurance payouts suggest the total cost may <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/17cf3f2e-e64d-4666-b1c2-2723347c2ada">exceed US$1.5 billion (£1.2 billion)</a>. </p>
<p>Judging by what has happened after past bridge collapses, there could be negative impacts on jobs and the local economy: about 14,000 people work in the port itself, and another 140,000 are employed in related services. </p>
<p>Above all, six people lost their lives. But the human cost could have been much worse if the incident had taken place during rush hour. Had the impact occurred with a vessel carrying hazardous materials, the environmental costs could have been dramatic as well.</p>
<p>Given what we know from previous incidents about the severity of ship-bridge collisions and major bridge collapses, it was clear this bridge was of critical importance.</p>
<p>A number of mitigation options are available to bridges, including the installation of protection devices around the bridge supports (pylons) in the form of fenders or artificial islands, to deflect a ship or lessen the energy of a collision. </p>
<p>For bridges in general, there are measures that can help on the ship side too, such as requiring the use of tugboats or introducing stricter limits on speeds, depending on the type of cargo and vessel size. It is not clear, however, whether these would have made any difference in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse.</p>
<p>Above all, by undertaking a risk-based consequence assessment every decade or so, authorities that are responsible for vital infrastructure can help visualise changing risks and prioritise their responses appropriately. In the case of river bridges, ever-increasing ship sizes, speedier turnaround times and higher cargo volumes have all increased the risks – and the costs of a catastrophic collision or collapse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marios Chryssanthopoulos has received funding from UKRI, Network Rail, Highways Agency and the European Commission.</span></em></p>The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge is already affecting global supply chains.Marios Chryssanthopoulos, Professor of Structural Systems, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203372024-03-28T17:33:56Z2024-03-28T17:33:56ZA human, environmental and economic emergency response to the Baltimore Key Bridge collapse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585126/original/file-20240328-22-lc2w7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4993%2C3079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Coast Guard cutter passes the cargo ship Dali that collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Md. on March 26. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Steve Helber)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On March 26, the container ship Dali in Baltimore’s industrial harbour <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-cargo-ship-dali-09aeffc6fa81f3069d4ba226def90555">struck an interstate highway bridge</a>, causing it to catastrophically collapse. Eight highway maintenance workers were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/who-is-missing-in-baltimores-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-what-we-know-about-those-unaccounted-for/">thought to be on the bridge at the time of collapse</a>. Two were <a href="https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-update-2-rescued-so-far/60305176">rescued</a>, and two bodies <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/us/victims-death-latest.html">were recovered</a>. Four workers remain missing, and are now <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/maryland-bridge-collapse-francis-scott-key-bridge-boat-baltimore-rcna145047">presumed dead</a>.</p>
<p>The ship-bridge collision was a technological disaster, defined as an event caused by <a href="https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/FY1230">a malfunction of a technological structure</a> or human error in controlling or handling the technology. </p>
<p>In this case, the root cause of the disaster involved the interaction of two types of transportation technologies: a moving container ship and a fixed bridge.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/human-centred-design-can-help-reduce-accidents-like-the-recent-ethiopian-airlines-boeing-737-crash-113987">Human-centred design can help reduce accidents like the recent Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 crash</a>
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<h2>A history of bridge collapses</h2>
<p>The disaster is not unprecedented — between 1960 to 2015 there have been <a href="https://conference-service.com/pianc-panama/documents/agenda/data/full_papers/full_paper_46.pdf">35 major bridge collapses</a> due to collisions by ships or barges.</p>
<p>On Feb. 22, in Guangzhou, south China, a container ship rammed into a bridge pillar leading to the subsequent <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/container-ship-hits-bridge-in-south-china-killing-5-and-knocking-section-of-roadway-into-the-water-1.6778666">collapse of the Lixinsha Bridge</a>, and killing five people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="photo of ships and boats sail on a river. a bridge with a section missing from the middle is in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585122/original/file-20240328-16-gkxw2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A massive container ship crashed into the Lixinsha Bridge in southern China on Feb. 22, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Lu Hanxin/Xinhua via AP)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The collapse of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> serves as another stark reminder that despite our technological prowess, accidents involving transportation technology will continue to occur when we least expect them.</p>
<h2>The immediate response</h2>
<p>The immediate response started with a mayday call from the troubled ship causing police to take action to prevent more cars from going onto the bridge. U.S. Coast Guard watchstanders received <a href="https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/3718320/coast-guard-multiple-partners-agencies-responding-to-francis-scott-key-bridge-c/">a report at 1:27 a.m.</a> of a container ship colliding with the bridge, and immediately deployed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-03-27-24/index.html">search and rescue boats to the shipping channel in Baltimore’s harbour</a>.</p>
<p>The first 24 hours after the collapse focused on saving more lives, to no avail. People who survived the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-do-we-know-about-baltimores-francis-scott-key-bridge-2024-03-26/">56-metre fall from the bridge deck</a> into the Patapsco River then faced <a href="https://www.today.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-survivors-cold-water-rcna145083">water temperatures of nine degrees Celsius</a>. </p>
<p>If not immediately rescued, chances of survival in cold river water become difficult due to <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/coldwater">cold shock and hypothermia</a> setting in.</p>
<p>Tons of submerged bridge wreckage and tidal currents created <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/26/search-rescue-baltimore-bridge-collapse/">perilous conditions</a> for rescue operations. After an extensive search and rescue effort until sunset on March 26, the next-day emergency response activity transitioned to the grim task of recovery of the dead.</p>
<p>About eight hours after the collapse, the mayor of Baltimore declared a <a href="https://mayor.baltimorecity.gov/news/press-releases/2024-03-26-mayor-scott-issues-state-emergency">state of emergency</a>. The governor then issued <a href="https://governor.maryland.gov/Lists/ExecutiveOrders/Attachments/39/EO%2001.01.2024.09%20Declaration%20of%20a%20State%20of%20Emergency_Accessible.pdf">an executive order</a>, declaring a state of emergency for Maryland.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a shipyard with rows of shipping containers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/585127/original/file-20240328-20-3wnxqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Port of Baltimore is one of the busiest harbours in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/state-of-emergency-maryland-bridge-collapse.html">state of emergency</a> allows officials to temporarily use extraordinary powers. Suspension of laws and regulations, quick redirection of funds, rapid deployment of personnel and the facilitation of federal aid are all reasons why a state of emergency would be declared. </p>
<p>The collision caused all maritime traffic to be stopped — <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/article/21285314/port-blocked-by-baltimore-bridge-collapse-is-key-hub-for-us-shipping">a significant impact on one of the busiest harbours in the United States</a> as a port of entry for foreign goods. Most of the Port of Baltimore’s shipping terminals are located within <a href="https://mpa.maryland.gov/Documents/2021TerminalMap.pdf">the area blocked by bridge collapse debris</a>.</p>
<p>In this case, the emergency declarations <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/27/baltimore-key-bridge-rebuild-timeline/">may allow governments to waive regulations</a> around competitive bidding to speed the eventual bridge rebuilding project.</p>
<h2>Pollution and debris clean-up</h2>
<p>Immediately after the collision, response operations include preventing environmental contamination. As the distressed cargo ship was departing to the Port of Colombo, Sri Lanka, it had on board about <a href="https://abc11.com/dali-cargo-ship-baltimore-bridge-collapse-patapsco-river/14577560/">1.8 million gallons of fuel</a>. Out of the thousands of containers being transported, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/27/baltimore-bridge-collapse-bodies-missing-workers/">56 containers contained 764 tons of hazardous materials</a>. </p>
<p>Removing the damaged steel latticework of the bridge’s trusses off the bow of the ship will be a challenging feat. </p>
<p>Debris now blocks navigation along the Fort McHenry Channel. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has started <a href="https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/3719448/army-corps-of-engineers-is-supporting-recovery-operations-following-francis-sco/">underwater surveys</a> to assess what needs to be done for debris removal.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. White House press briefing after the Baltimore bridge collision.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The debris removal effort will be especially complex as sensitivity is required. In and around the same area where the <a href="https://www.marinelog.com/news/corps-supporting-recovery-operations-following-baltimore-bridge-collapse/">federal debris removal assessment</a> is taking place, rescue officials were searching for bodies — the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-03-28-24/h_586e28d0a65dece9b4f0577972b94592">search has been paused for safety reasons</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://mdsp.maryland.gov/Organization/Pages/FieldOperationsBureau/UnderwaterRecoveryTeam.aspx">Maryland State Police underwater recovery team</a> has responsibilities involving the recovery of the bodies of the missing highway workers. </p>
<h2>Unified command response</h2>
<p>Unified command is an emergency management technique applied when <a href="https://www.nrt.org/sites/2/files/UC%20TAD%201-26-07%20FINAL.pdf">there is more than one agency with incident jurisdiction</a>. </p>
<p>The Fort McHenry navigation channel and the I-695 bridge itself fall under multiple local, state and federal jurisdictional responsibilities. On March 27, a <a href="https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/post/baltimore-s-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapses-after-mv-dali-allided-with-bridge-column">unified command joint information centre</a> was established to co-ordinate emergency responses.</p>
<p>Sadly, within the first 48 hours search and rescue transitioned to search and recovery. Operations will be moving in the direction of salvage and <a href="https://homeport.uscg.mil/Lists/Content/Attachments/1626/MTSRU%20Information%20Sheet%20v4%200.pdf">port recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Going forward, the main priority is clearing the shipping channel to reopen the Port of Baltimore. True to form to the characteristics of a technological disaster, it will take a while to determine the scope of the impacts. </p>
<p>For the immediate future, timelines for when the Baltimore Harbour can return to normal will remain elusive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack L. Rozdilsky receives support for research communication and public scholarship from York University. He also has received research support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.</span></em></p>A cargo ship leaving the Port of Baltimore collided with a bridge in a technological disaster that may have claimed the lives of up to six maintenance workers on the bridge at the time.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267852024-03-28T10:23:50Z2024-03-28T10:23:50ZBaltimore Key Bridge: how a domino effect brought it down in seconds<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68663071">collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore on 26 March was a shocking and tragic event. Six people remain unaccounted for in the disaster, which saw the world’s third largest continuous truss bridge fall into the Patapsco river.</p>
<p>The cause was Singapore-flagged container ship, the Dali, which veered off course, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baltimore-bridge-collapse-ship-what-caused-crash-francis-scott-key-dali/">colliding with one of the bridge’s supports</a>, or piers. As the 300 metre-long vessel slammed into the structure, it triggered what’s known as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002177">progressive collapse</a>, where a domino effect leads to the entire structure failing. The bridge, built more than 45 years ago, crashed down into the frigid water at 1:28am eastern standard time (5:28 UTC).</p>
<p>But how could one ship bring down this 366m (1,200 ft) structure within seconds of the collision? </p>
<p>A progressive collapse involves the failure of a single element, like the pier, and results in the sequential failure of other connected components. These can include the metallic truss and the bridge’s deck. This type of collapse can have catastrophic consequences in terms of the risk to human life, as well as to the economy of an area and the local environment. </p>
<p>Although it’s impossible to account for every scenario, bridges can be built with inherent features that enhance their resistance to progressive collapse. Typically, bridges can withstand some degree of damage to a pier or part of the superstructure. The bridge deck can even remain safe for vehicles depending on the circumstances.</p>
<p>However, in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse, the metallic truss was designed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2024/03/26/francis-scott-key-bridge-history-baltimore/">as one continuous system</a>. The space between each support, or pier, is known as the truss span. The collapse of one of the piers effectively doubled the truss span to the next support. This dramatic increase in span exerted a much larger force on the remaining truss structure. </p>
<p>While continuous truss systems are favoured because they can redistribute weight in the event of damage, in this case, the remaining truss elements couldn’t withstand all that extra force after the pier failed. </p>
<p>This resulted in the complete collapse of the truss section above the damaged
pier. The collapse didn’t stop there, however. Due to the interconnected nature of the trusses, the remaining section was initially pulled upwards. The sudden release of this tension created a powerful dynamic effect, ultimately causing the entire bridge to collapse.</p>
<h2>Rare event</h2>
<p>It’s certainly not unknown for ships to strike bridge supports. On May 9, 1980, <a href="https://www.fox13news.com/news/sunshine-skyway-bridge-francis-scott-key-baltimore-tampa-st-pete-florida-pinellas-hillsborough-collapse-boat-freighter">a strikingly similar event</a> took place when a freighter <a href="https://eu.jacksonville.com/picture-gallery/news/state/2019/05/08/photos-sunshine-skyway-bridge-disaster/809810007/">collided with a support pier of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge</a> in Tampa Bay, Florida. As a result, the bridge failed over a similar distance as the Baltimore collapse.</p>
<p>But while bridge designers are acutely aware of the potential for collisions, these are – at the same time – rather rare events. The impact forces on a support pier are also highly variable. A higher speed or heavier ship will significantly increase the force on the pier. And higher vessel traffic in the water boosts the probability of a collision.</p>
<p>In addition, the current method used in the US for calculating the collision force of a ship is based on <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/b15621-9/vessel-collision-design-bridges-michael-knott-zolan-prucz">research conducted between 1967 and 1976</a>. However, a different method would have been used for the Key Bridge, which opened in 1977. Needless to say, vessels as heavy and fast as the Dali were not a common sight in 1977. </p>
<p>In fact, the collision force under some scenarios is likely to be <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/baltimores-366m-span-steel-truss-bridge-collapses-after-being-struck-by-container-ship-26-03-2024/">well beyond the capacity of bridge piers to withstand</a>. This is why bridges have other systems of protection, such as dolphins – a group of pilings situated in the water near a pier, which serve to deflect a vessel or take the energy out of a collision.</p>
<p>There isn’t any information about the system that was installed when the Key Bridge opened in 1977. And some observers have questioned whether the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-structure-support-pier.html">protective barriers around the Baltimore bridge were sufficient</a>.</p>
<p>Regular structural assessments and retrofits are crucial to ensure a bridge meets current safety standards. Concrete and steel, the primary materials in this bridge, are susceptible to deterioration from factors like corrosion and other environmental conditions. </p>
<p>In general, insufficient maintenance or inadequate retrofits can be contributing factors when bridges collapse. However, it must be said there is no evidence this was a factor in this case – and the Key Bridge <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240326081517/https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/us/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-tuesday/index.html">was said to be “up to code”</a> when the disaster occurred. </p>
<p>There will be more detail to come on this dramatic and tragic event. And the findings will surely inform future approaches to the design and protection of bridges across busy waterways.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mohamed Shaheen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ll need to learn the lessons from this disaster.Dr Mohamed Shaheen, Lecturer in Structural Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2267812024-03-28T00:10:00Z2024-03-28T00:10:00ZBridges can be protected from ship collisions – an expert on structures in disasters explains how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584868/original/file-20240327-24-swqhqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2988%2C1965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cargo ship hit the Sunshine Skyway Bridge over Florida's Tampa Bay in 1980, collapsing one span and killing 35 people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BridgeCollapses-List/8ccc0211108542268f8c2a39403265d7/photo">AP Photo/Jackie Green</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The MV Dali, a 984-foot, 100,000-ton cargo ship, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> when leaving Baltimore harbor on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse.</em></p>
<p><em>In an interview, University of Michigan civil engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=764wTXMAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Sherif El-Tawil</a> explained how often ships collide with bridges, what can be done to protect bridges from collisions, and how a similar disaster in Florida in 1980 – just three years after the Key bridge opened – changed the way bridges are built.</em></p>
<p><strong>This is not the first time a ship has taken out a bridge. What’s the history of ship-bridge collisions?</strong></p>
<p>This is an extremely rare event. To my knowledge, there are about 40 or so recorded events in the past 65 years that involved similar type of damage to a bridge caused by a ship. So they seem to occur on average about once every one and a half to two years around the world. When you consider that there are millions of bridges around the world – and most of them cross waterways – you can imagine how rare this is.</p>
<p>The most influential case was the 1980 <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=20417">Sunshine Skyway Bridge collision</a> in Florida, which prompted the federal government to take action in terms of developing guidelines for designing bridges for ship collision. By the early 1990s the provisions were developed and incorporated into the bridge design code, the AASHTO specifications. The <a href="https://transportation.org/">American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials</a> produces the design code every bridge in the United States must conform to.</p>
<p><strong>What was different about the Sunshine Skyway Bridge disaster from previous bridge collisions?</strong></p>
<p>There were casualties. The fact that a crash could bring down a bridge, just like in the Baltimore situation, prompted the concern: Can we do something about it? And that something was those specifications that came out and eventually became incorporated in the national design document.</p>
<p>What those specifications say is that you either design the bridge for the impact force that a ship can deliver or you must protect the bridge against that impact force. So you must have a protective system. That’s why I was surprised that this bridge did not have a protective system, some type of barrier, around it. I have not examined the structural plans of this bridge. All I could see is the pictures that were published online, but protective systems would be very visible and recognizable if they were there.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Sunshine Skyway Bridge disaster in 1980 prompted improvements in bridge safety.</span></figcaption>
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<p><strong>What is currently mandated for new bridge construction, and is it sufficient to handle today’s massive cargo ships?</strong></p>
<p>I estimate, based on the published speed and weight of the MV Dali, that the impact force was in the range of 30 million pounds. This is a massive force, and you need a massive structure to withstand that kind of force. But it is doable if you have a huge pier. That might dictate the design of the bridge and what it could look like. Most likely it could not be a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/truss-bridge">truss bridge</a>. It may be a <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/civil/bridge7.htm">cable stay bridge</a> that has a very large tower that is capable of taking that load.</p>
<p>If you cannot design for that load, then you have to consider other alternatives. And that’s what the specifications say. They’re very clear about this. And those alternatives could be to build an island around the pier or a rock wall, or put dolphins – standalone structures set in the riverbed – adjacent to it, or put on fenders that absorb the energy so the ship doesn’t come in so fast. All of these are ways you can mitigate the impact.</p>
<p>Engineers design structures – and bridges are no exception – for a certain probability of failure, because if we didn’t, the cost would be prohibitive. Theoretically, you could build a structure that would never fail, but you’d have to put infinite money into it. For a critical bridge of this type, we would consider an acceptable chance for failure to be <a href="https://conference-service.com/pianc-panama/documents/agenda/data/full_papers/full_paper_46.pdf">1 in 10,000 years</a>.</p>
<p>Based on published information, I tried to compute what the probability of this event would be, and it turns out to be 1 in 100,000 years or so. The ship made a beeline directly to the pier that was vulnerable. It was just shocking to see such a rare event unfold. </p>
<p>The authority of the bridge must have considered protecting it, and the low probability of this occurring must have played a role in whether they would invest or not in protective measures. Because any type of construction in water or on water is very expensive.</p>
<p><strong>Is it feasible to protect older bridges?</strong></p>
<p>I think so. For some of them it might be lower tech like the island idea. And it could use maybe rocks or concrete components that would prevent the ship from reaching the pier at all. </p>
<p>It was a massive ship with a flared bow. The lower part of the ship, which extends beyond the bow, I believe struck the foundation system, but the bow reached the pier. The pier was like an A shape, so the bow snapped one side of the A. The other side could not support the weight of the bridge and so the whole thing collapsed. If somebody kicks your feet from underneath you, you’re just going to fall. That’s exactly what happened.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Video captured the moment the Dali hit a pier of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.</span></figcaption>
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<p><strong>How many bridges are vulnerable to ship collisions?</strong></p>
<p>I don’t know the number, but I know that bridges that are in this category, that are long span, major bridges like this, are probably less than 0.1% of the bridges in the U.S. And some of them do not necessarily cross waterways, so that’s a subset that is an even lower percentage. So it’s a rare event occurring to a rare kind of bridge. </p>
<p><strong>Are cargo ships getting larger, and is that a consideration for protecting bridges?</strong></p>
<p>I expect so because there is an economy of scale. Bigger ships would be cheaper for transporting goods. But I cannot envision that the designer of this bridge 50 years ago or so would have thought that a ship this size could impact the bridge. I’m sure they would have taken steps to address that. It just didn’t cross their mind.</p>
<p>If this bridge had been designed to the current specifications, I believe it would have survived. There are two reasons a ship would deliver this kind of force: It’s moving too fast or it’s too heavy. And those two factors are taken into consideration in the impact force for which we design. So if we are taking those explicitly into consideration, then a bigger ship, yes, it’s a bigger force, and we would design for that. </p>
<p>But let’s go forward another 50 years and imagine you have a much larger ship that comes into being. At that time, bridges will have been designed for smaller ships, and you have the same problem all over again. It’s hard to predict how big these things will go. You can design for current ships, but as they evolve, it’s hard to predict many years into the future.</p>
<p><strong>Are there other takeaways from this disaster?</strong></p>
<p>The loss of this bridge, beyond the tragic loss of life, is going to be felt for many months if not years. It’s not a straightforward process to replace a bridge of this magnitude, of this span distance. It’s something that will require a lot of planning and a lot of resources to come back again to where we were before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sherif El-Tawil receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>A civil engineer explains why ships taking out bridges is rare, and describes how bridge builders protect the structures from ship collisions.Sherif El-Tawil, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223312024-03-13T20:37:18Z2024-03-13T20:37:18ZDespite positive steps in British Columbia, animal welfare in disaster management remains overlooked<p>Disasters serve as focusing events, providing a “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brent-Doberstein/publication/372308431_The_post-disaster_window_The_2021_British_Columbia_atmospheric_rivers_phenomenon_as_a_focusing_event_for_policy_change/links/64aecdc995bbbe0c6e2f0a85/The-post-disaster-window-The-2021-British-Columbia-atmospheric-rivers-phenomenon-as-a-focusing-event-for-policy-change.pdf">window of opportunity</a>” to reassess practices, propose new policies and animate the human decisions that make communities vulnerable to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html">climate-related</a> disasters. </p>
<p>Elisabeth Stoddard, associate professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, and I set out to understand the relationship between <a href="https://www.worldanimalprotection.ca/news/understanding-2021-abbotsford-floods">animal agriculture and climate change</a>. To do so, we focused on the impacts of disasters, alongside examining the common disaster management practices deployed in Canada, using the example of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">Abbotsford Floods</a>.</p>
<p>On Nov. 17, 2021, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia was inundated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100441">atmospheric floodwaters</a> resulting in the deaths of at least 500 cows, thousands of pigs and over a hundred thousand birds. The Abbotsford flood was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/farm-animals-suffered-in-b-c-floods-despite-existing-disaster-management-guidelines-172353">largest-ever agricultural and animal welfare disaster in B.C. history</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canada-needs-to-dramatically-update-how-it-prepares-for-and-manages-emergencies-221959">Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies</a>
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<p>In 2023, the province announced the <a href="https://www.leg.bc.ca/Pages/BCLASS-Legacy.aspx#%2Fcontent%2Fdata%2520-%2520ldp%2Fpages%2F42nd4th%2F3rd_read%2Fgov31-3.htm">Emergency and Disaster Management Act</a> that pivoted away from a response-based approach to one centred around four distinct phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Despite updating the legislation, our research shows animal disaster management remains overlooked. </p>
<p>This research highlights the need for sustained civil engagement and legislative interventions on two key issues: 1) the nuances of animal rescue and welfare; and 2) the strained resiliency of agricultural communities. </p>
<h2>Animal rescue and welfare</h2>
<p>B.C. emergency management protocols give producers four options regarding farmed animals during disasters. Farmers can either a) shelter-in-place, b) relocate on-farm, c) evacuate off-farm or d) release their livestock. We also found that options were further restricted depending on the farmed species.</p>
<p>For example, to shelter-in-place often remains the only option for pigs, chickens and turkeys due to biosecurity concerns, logistical challenges and simple cost-benefit analysis from an agricultural perspective. Indeed, we found — through a <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/enSearch/detail?id=7AFDBC16F15F42E289E9F7DDB0F80C40&recorduid=AGR-2022-21591">Freedom of Information request</a> — that most of the reimbursements for relocation distributed by the <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/business-market-development/emergency-management/livestock-relocation">Livestock Relocation Policy</a> went to dairy and beef producers. </p>
<p>Of those producers, many opted to evacuate their animals directly to an auction yard or abattoir due to the loss of rangeland or destroyed farm infrastructure.</p>
<p>These considerations are further complicated by the different production lifespans of various species. Long-term welfare impacts are mostly only relevant within dairy and beef production since on average, chickens only live around 40 days before slaughter — and pigs only around six months. By comparison, cows can live upwards of five years in production before slaughter — a fact which helps to partly explain the extreme disparity in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">water, land and energy costs in beef production</a> as opposed to other animal products. </p>
<p>Studies show that cows rescued from floods have compromised immune systems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14243984">slower rates of growth</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33045630/">higher rates of miscarriages</a>, and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.012">increased methane emissions</a>. These long-term impacts can lead to the eventual decision by producers to euthanize animals.</p>
<p>In fact, the 2021 <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/programs/agriculture-insurance-and-income-protection-programs/flood-recovery">Canada-British Columbia Flood Recovery Program for Food Security</a> anticipated these continued losses and extended coverage for costs associated with post-disaster welfare and losses for an additional year.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-address-the-interconnected-harms-to-people-animals-and-ecosystems-in-train-derailments-210357">Why we must address the interconnected harms to people, animals and ecosystems in train derailments</a>
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<p>This flags the need for transparency, and a mandatory reporting mechanism concerning post-disaster animal welfare to accurately represent the <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/irpp.1868">long-term</a> repercussions of disasters. </p>
<h2>Strained resiliency</h2>
<p>Increasingly, disaster relief is becoming the <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745339542/disasters-and-social-reproduction/">responsibility of individual communities and civil society</a>. However, these communities are often under-resourced, untrained and not integrated formally into emergency response. </p>
<p>Our research pointed to the oversized role agricultural communities have in responding to disasters, often leading to <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-related-disasters-leave-behind-trauma-and-worse-mental-health-housing-uncertainty-is-a-major-reason-why-206861">post-traumatic stress disorder and other psychological harms</a>. There are also instances where producers will even decide to leave agricultural production entirely.</p>
<p>Many members of the Abbotsford community felt abandoned and exploited by the government after the floods, leading to resentment, frustration and mistrust towards formal emergency management. </p>
<p>While communities took pride in their ability to support each other with the limited resources they had, interviews and post-disaster research revealed the immediate and long-term impacts of this approach should be taken seriously, including acknowledging the barrier it creates for future collaboration between communities and emergency management.</p>
<p>It is essential that we build capacity in communities by supporting, resourcing, and legitimizing <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/DPM-05-2018-">community-first responder models</a>. In doing so, we can help communities and farmers gradually become integral aspects of formal emergency management systems as <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-management/local-emergency-programs/volunteers">public safety volunteers</a>. </p>
<h2>Real change has yet to come</h2>
<p>Following the floods, the Abbotsford municipal government focused on returning producers to production by restocking barns and drafting plans to improve <a href="https://letstalkabbotsford.ca/abbotsfordfloodresponse">flood-mitigation infrastructure</a>. On the provincial side, the government has begun to update emergency legislation with its Emergency and Disaster Management Act. </p>
<p>These are important steps, but they fail to engage with the more thorny issues related to animal disaster management. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-must-stop-treating-climate-disasters-like-unexpected-humanitarian-crises-216153">Canada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises</a>
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<p>Our research shows the need for transparency regarding animal rescue and welfare issues, as well as mobilization around community-based solutions, such as by formalizing the community first-responder model and integrating it into official emergency management. </p>
<p>Without these critical interventions at the social and political level, we can continue to expect the same outcomes for communities living on the front lines of climate-fuelled disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Eccles receives funding from World Animal Protection (Canada), FRQSC, NSERC-CREATE, and Concordia University.</span></em></p>Despite improvements in disaster response management since the Abbotsford floods of 2021, long-term animal welfare remains woefully underappreciated in B.C.Stephanie Eccles, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236472024-02-16T13:19:35Z2024-02-16T13:19:35ZForest Service warns of budget cuts ahead of a risky wildfire season – what that means for safety<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575790/original/file-20240215-20-28tft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=79%2C144%2C1867%2C1217&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Snake River Hotshot crew monitor a prescribed fire near Roberts, Idaho.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nifc/52530463314/">Austin Catlin/BLM</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A wet winter and spring followed by a hot, dry summer can be a dangerous combination in the Western U.S. The rain fuels bountiful vegetation growth, and when summer heat dries out that vegetation, it can <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf12064">leave grasses and shrubs ready to burn</a>. Drier than normal conditions, like many regions are experiencing in 2024, also raises the fire risk.</p>
<p>In years like this, controlled burns and prescribed fire treatments are crucial to help protect communities against wildfires. Well-staffed fire crews ready to respond to blazes are essential, too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A forecast map shows above average temperatures likely across the US in July- August-September period for 2024, but particularly in the Western US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s long-range seasonal forecast for summer 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6">NOAA</a></span>
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<p>However, on Feb. 8, U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore told agency employees to <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/leadership/fy2024-budget-overview">expect budget cuts</a> from Congress in 2024. His letter was thin on details. However, taken at face value, budget cuts could be interpreted as a reduction in the firefighting workforce, compounding recruitment and retention challenges that the Forest Service is already facing.</p>
<p>So what does this mean for the coming fire season? We <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=XgAzk2EAAAAJ">study wildfire policy</a> and fire ecology, and one of us, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=g2KEhV4AAAAJ&hl=en">Camille Stevens-Rumann</a>, has worked as a wildland firefighter. Here are a few important things to know.</p>
<h2>The fire funding fix</h2>
<p>While Moore’s letter raises concerns, the financial reality for fighting fires this year is likely less dire than it might otherwise be for one key reason.</p>
<p>The 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act included what is known as the “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-115publ141/pdf/PLAW-115publ141.pdf">fire funding fix</a>.” It introduced a new budget structure, creating a separate disaster fund accessible during costly wildfire seasons. The fire funding fix allows federal firefighting agencies to access up to US$2.25 billion in additional disaster funding a year starting in 2020 and increasing to $2.95 billion in 2027.</p>
<p>Prior to the fire funding fix, fighting fires – suppression expenditures – consumed <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/defining-success-wildfire-funding-fix/">nearly 50% of the U.S. Forest Service budget</a>. As bad fire years worsened, that left less funding for the agency’s other services, including conducting fuel treatments, such as prescribed burns, to reduce the risk of wildfires spreading.</p>
<p><iframe id="DyoBq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DyoBq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The fix protects agency budgets, ensuring that a high-cost fire season will not completely consume the budget, and that allows more funding for preventive efforts and all the other programs of the Forest Service.</p>
<h2>Prevention is a rising priority</h2>
<p>The Forest Service has also made fire prevention a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">higher priority in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>In 2022, it released a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">Wildfire Crisis Strategy and Implementation Plan</a> that included ramping up fuel treatments to reduce the potential for large uncontrollable fires, as the West had seen in previous years. It called for treating up to an additional 50 million acres over 10 years.</p>
<p>That work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvac042">won’t be completed before the 2024 fire season</a>, but fuel treatments will be underway. They include prescribed burning to remove dry grasses, twigs, logs and other fuels in a controlled way and the use of heavy equipment to thin dense forest areas and create fire breaks by removing trees and vegetation. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A wildland firefighter conducts a controlled burnout to help stop a fire near Spokane, Wash., in 2022.</span>
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<p>Prescribed burning must be done when conditions are safe to limit the potential for the fire to get out of control, usually in the spring and early summer. However, climate change is expected to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00993-1">shorten the prescribed burning window</a> in the western U.S.</p>
<h2>Staffing is still a concern</h2>
<p>Doing this work requires staff, and the Forest Service’s challenges in recruiting and retaining qualified firefighters may hinder its ability to accomplish all of its objectives. </p>
<p>In 2023, over 18,000 people were employed as federal wildland firefighters. While the Forest Service and Department of the Interior have not specified precise staffing targets, Moore has mentioned that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/us-forest-service-wildfire-fighters-low-pay">some crews have roughly half the staff they need</a>.”</p>
<p>A recent Government Accountability Office report found that low wages and poor work-life balance, among other challenges, were <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105517">barriers commonly cited</a> by federal firefighting employees. The government boosted firefighters’ pay in 2021, but that increase is set to expire <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/delivering-mission/excel/firefighter-pay">unless Congress votes</a> to make it permanent. So far, firefighters have kept the same level of pay each time Congress pushed back acting on the 2024 budget, but it’s a precarious position.</p>
<p>The agency has started many initiatives to recruit and retain permanent employees, but it is too early to assess the results. A recent study involving one of us, Jude Bayham, found that highly qualified firefighters were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103115">more likely to remain</a> with the agency after active seasons, during which they earn more money.</p>
<h2>Everyone has a role in fire protection</h2>
<p>Even with optimal funding and staffing, the firefighting agencies cannot protect every area from wildfire. Some of the defensive work will have to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-wildfire-how-to-protect-more-homes-as-fire-risk-rises-in-a-warming-climate-208652">done by residents</a> in high-risk areas.</p>
<p>Homeowners can reduce the fire risk to their own properties by <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/wildfire-mitigation/protect-your-home-property-from-wildfire/">following defensible space recommendations</a>. </p>
<p>These include keeping flammable vegetation away from buildings and reducing other fire hazards such as wood shingles, flammable debris in yards and pine needles in gutters. People should also pay attention to burn bans and avoid risky activities, such as leaving campfires unattended, setting off fireworks and using equipment that can spark fires on hot, dry, windy days.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Clearing away dead trees and brush within 100 feet of homes can help reduce fire risk.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The federal government and states have increased funds to help people reduce wildfire hazards on their property. The <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/secretary-haaland-announces-nearly-50-million-wildfire-mitigation-and-resilience">Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> of 2021 included millions of dollars to support fire prevention on <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/news/releases/usda-announces-new-round-of-investments-in-wildfire-protection-cwdg">state, tribal and private lands</a>. Several <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/grants/wildfire-prevention-grants">states also have programs</a>, such as Colorado’s Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation Grant Program to support <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/grants/forest-restoration-wildfire-risk-mitigation/">community investment in wildfire mitigation</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">Recent disastrous wildfire seasons</a> have shown how important it is to manage the fire risk. Consistent funding is crucial, and homeowners can help by taking defensive action to reduce wildfire risk on their property.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Stevens-Rumann receives funding from US Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the US department of Agriculture. She used to work for the US Forest Service and works closely with Federal, State, and non-profit organizations that help manage forests across the western US</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jude Bayham receives funding from the United States Forest Service. He is on the Protect Our Winters Science Alliance. </span></em></p>A hot, dry summer on the heels of a wet winter raises the risk of wildfires.Camille Stevens-Rumann, Associate Professor of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State UniversityJude Bayham, Associate Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219592024-02-07T16:13:40Z2024-02-07T16:13:40ZWhy Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies<p>Canadians are facing larger disasters on a more frequent basis. There is no doubt that some of these recent and future events are the result of an increasingly unstable climate. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/fiona-hits-atlantic-canada-climate-change-means-the-region-will-see-more-frequent-storms-191313">Fiona hits Atlantic Canada: Climate change means the region will see more frequent storms</a>
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<p>Whenever more people become exposed by living in hazardous parts of the country — including those not directly attributed to climate change such as earthquakes or train derailments — their disaster risk also increases. This combines with social and economic changes, like poverty and aging populations, to increase community vulnerability. </p>
<p>Despite these evolving challenges, our emergency management systems remain strongly rooted in <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/hv%20551.5.c2%20m363%201998-eng.pdf">civil defence</a> practices developed during the Cold War. These systems <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-canadas-fractured-emergency.pdf">are over-stressed</a> by recent events and <a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">continue to be underfunded</a> by provincial and federal governments. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">Until we address chronic underfunding, Canada will keep failing at emergency management</a>
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<p>Because Canadians tend only to pay close attention to these shortcomings when disasters occur, governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-disaster-response-agency-1.6868209">and the media</a> remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them.</p>
<h2>Disasters cost billions</h2>
<p>Natural and technological disasters represent a significant financial burden on citizens, businesses and governments. Disaster response actions and associated recovery assistance funds have cost approximately $5.75 billion over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rcvr-dsstrs/dsstr-fnncl-ssstnc-rrngmnts/index-en.aspx">Public Safety Canada</a>.</p>
<p>However, proposals to increase response capabilities in isolation aren’t the most efficient way to reduce disaster risks. Canada, especially at the federal level, <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">has developed strategies</a> and made commitments to adopt a more comprehensive approach, but it’s failing to deliver results. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mtgtn-strtgy/index-en.aspx#a00">Disaster Management Strategy</a> acknowledges the value of hazard mitigation and community adaptation, but there is very little to require their implementation. </p>
<p>Instead of improving mitigation, changes to the national emergency management system <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">currently being discussed</a> in the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/12/15/news/canada-test-options-national-emergency-response-agency">national media</a> include the creation of a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10172535/canada-emergency-response-agency-sajjan/">federal disaster response agency</a>.</p>
<p>But that’s not likely going to be effective in managing disasters in an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canadas-political-system-makes-it-difficult-to-fight-floods-118511">Why Canada’s political system makes it difficult to fight floods</a>
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<p>One recognized problem is federal and provincial legislation is now out of date compared to emergency management best practices. These laws are overly dependent on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2014.889392">emergency powers</a> stemming from our experiences in the last century.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, the provinces created “<a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1460&context=cmh">civil defence</a>” systems against enemy attacks, with the option to use such systems in the event of natural disasters. These early laws became their first emergency management legislation. Governmental use of these existing powers, including suspending civil rights, has since been the only approach available. </p>
<p>It makes more sense for governments, <a href="https://parl.canadiana.ca/view/oop.debates_HOC2104_01/499">as Prime Minister Louis St. Laurent stated in 1951</a> with regard to using the War Measures Act, “to avoid taking powers of the grave character which no democratic government wishes to have, as a government, unless those powers are really necessary for the safety of the state.”</p>
<h2>Changing the Emergencies Act</h2>
<p>A review of the existing <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-4.5/index.html">Emergencies Act</a> is clearly necessary. </p>
<p>The current wording establishes different powers available to the federal government under four types of emergencies. </p>
<p>Public welfare emergencies cover natural and technological disasters, while public order emergencies involve civil unrest, as was the case of the Emergencies Act’s use in February 2022 to end the <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-introduction.pdf">so-called Freedom Convoy’s occupation of Ottawa</a>. </p>
<p>The other two types are focused on national defence related to international emergencies and wars. This may contribute to the perception that disasters are a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/military-there-for-canadians-in-emergencies/wcm/82301acc-5d4d-4428-b43e-b617845f54ea">national defence responsibility</a>. </p>
<p>The public welfare section of the Emergencies Act is clearly inappropriate and redundant considering provincial jurisdiction over emergency management. Provincial laws and systems cover the same range of special powers, and the Emergencies Act prevents the government of Canada from interfering in the provinces’ responses.</p>
<p>The section should be replaced with a process for the federal government to formally recognize provincial and municipal states of emergency. This would acknowledge decision-making belongs at the local and provincial level while giving federal cabinet ministers the ability to direct departmental resources to support provincial responses. </p>
<p>In fact, a provision in the federal <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/index.html">Emergency Management Act</a> that describes how Ottawa should prepare for disasters <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/page-1.html#h-214379">already sets a requirement for ministers to do this</a>. It states: “Each minister shall include in an emergency management plan: (a) any programs, arrangements or other measures to assist provincial governments and, through the provincial governments, local authorities.” </p>
<h2>No clear role</h2>
<p>The current emergency management system, designed around the division of roles, responsibilities and powers between federal and provincial governments, does not have a clear role for a national response agency. </p>
<p>Nor can the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9882263/canada-military-help-emergencies/">Canadian Armed Forces</a> continue to be tasked as a routine solution. The resources required in times of disaster go beyond the traditional 911 emergency services to include utilities, private and not-for-profit agencies and a greater role for citizen involvement. But these resources are located in provinces and organized locally.</p>
<p>Emergency management therefore needs to be integrated into decision-making by all levels of government and communities to be effective. </p>
<p>There are still unrealized opportunities to improve inter-provincial co-operation, and there’s still an urgent need for better funding. The creation of a response-focused national agency will not address these underlying problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lindsay is affiliated with the Canadian RIsk and Hazards Network and the International Association of Emergency Managers </span></em></p>Governments and the media remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them. Here’s what must change — and will and won’t work — as Canada faces increased disaster risks.Jack Lindsay, Associate Professor and Chair of Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies Department, Brandon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172562024-02-06T23:06:30Z2024-02-06T23:06:30ZTurkey’s push for post-earthquake reconstruction puts speed over housing quality<p>It has been a year since <a href="https://apnews.com/article/earthquake-turkey-syria-february-2023-62dba95d0608a3a587ddd2fe5ec39541">two powerful earthquakes</a>, magnitude 7.8 and 7.5, devastated parts of southeastern Turkey and northern Syria. The Feb. 6, 2023 earthquakes destroyed hundreds of thousands of buildings, killed <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-earthquake-anniversary-hatay-kahramanmaras-77ca7874fbfbe15f898f12c2690216fb">almost 60,000 people</a> and left more than <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2023/02/78128/15-million-now-homeless-turkiye-after-quake-disaster-warn-un">1.5 million homeless</a>.</p>
<p>One year later, the region is still recovering from its <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64540696">most devastating disaster</a> in recent history. And significant changes are required in the way the reconstruction is taking place.</p>
<p>In Turkey, the disaster exposed persistent social inequality, widespread poverty, housing shortages and other systemic problems. <a href="https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-Kahramanmaras-and-Hatay-Earthquakes-Report.pdf">The need to repair infrastructure and rebuild hundreds of thousands of homes</a> presents a unique opportunity for transformative change. However, the Turkish government’s approach to disaster recovery poses challenges for that change. </p>
<h2>Politics of post-disaster action</h2>
<p>The government of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has maintained existing policies and housing strategies, and this creates an obstacle to redressing the social and environmental injustices that led to the disaster.</p>
<p>For decades, the Turkish government has maintained a housing and reconstruction strategy that concentrates decision-making power in the central government and prioritizes speed and quantity over quality. </p>
<p>This year, the government expanded the capacity of the Ministry of the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (MEUPCC) to expropriate land. The Ministry has expropriated over 207 hectares of land in the <a href="https://www.gercekgundem.com/guncel/afet-yasasi-ilk-hatayi-vurdu-defne-rezerv-alani-ilan-edildi-442597">southern province of Hatay alone</a>. More expropriations are expected in other provinces.</p>
<p>Similar to previous reconstruction processes in the country, the strategy has been to facilitate new urban development in city outskirts and remote locations. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2006.03.002">Scholars have noted</a>, however, that this approach increases urban sprawl, exacerbates fragmentation and tends to neglect the historical significance of city centres, as well as the value of agricultural land and rural practices. </p>
<p>Prioritizing speedy construction over housing quality perpetuates social problems and increases environmental and economic costs in the long term.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-left-standing-in-turkey-offer-design-guidance-for-future-earthquake-resilient-construction-202089">Buildings left standing in Turkey offer design guidance for future earthquake-resilient construction</a>
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<h2>Unequal access</h2>
<p>This is pretty much the same strategy that was implemented after <a href="https://www.sayistay.gov.tr/reports/download/m5pokdvgDW-bayindirlik-ve-iskan-bakanliginin-marmara-ve-duzce-depremleri-sonrasi-faaliyetle">the 1999 Marmara Earthquake</a>, the earthquakes in <a href="https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/izmirde-binlerce-konut-teslim-edildi-cevre-sehircilik-ve-iklim-degisikligi-bakani-murat-kurum-izmir-boyle-donustu-sira-11-ilde-42236523">Van (2011),</a> <a href="https://csb.gov.tr/bakanlik-elazig-da-24-ocak-2020-de-meydana-gelen-depremin-ardindan-yuruttugu-calismalarinda-sona-geldi-bakanlik-faaliyetleri-36248">Elazığ (2020),</a> and <a href="https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/izmirde-binlerce-konut-teslim-edildi-cevre-sehircilik-ve-iklim-degisikligi-bakani-murat-kurum-izmir-boyle-donustu-sira-11-ilde-42236523">İzmir (2020)</a> and the <a href="https://www.iha.com.tr/haber-bati-karadenizde-selin-vurdugu-ilceler-yeniden-ayaga-kaldirildi-1162107">2021 Western Black Sea floods</a>. </p>
<p>There are legal mechanisms in the country to conduct in-situ reconstruction and more careful urban transformation. However, the government keeps developing suburban areas because it is the <a href="https://tr.euronews.com/2023/02/21/toki-su-ana-kadar-kac-konut-yapti-deprem-bolgesinde-ne-kadar-surede-kac-konut-insa-edecek">easiest and fastest way to show that action is being taken</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, these new homes are not accessible to all.</p>
<p>Under the law only owners of moderately or severely damaged homes can access zero-interest loans for purchasing new units. This restricts the number of people eligible for post-disaster housing. In addition, many new settlements are located far from jobs, schools, services and other facilities. </p>
<p>Alternatives do exist to achieve quality, but they receive little attention from Erdoğan’s government.</p>
<h2>Co-operative housing in Turkey</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.31198/idealkent.1117042">Construction co-ops have existed in Turkey since the 1930s</a>. At the height of their popularity in 1988, co-operatives accounted for 35 per cent of total housing production. But political negligence, and the absence of a robust legal framework, have hindered the co-op movement and eroded public trust in community-based co-operatives. Today, co-operatives represent less than 0.1 per cent of housing production. </p>
<p>After the 1999 Marmara earthquake, a group of tenants, frustrated by their exclusion from government programs, formed a <a href="https://www.umutarsivi.org/hope/duzce-umut-evleri/">housing co-operative in Düzce</a>. Through participatory design, and community-driven construction, the co-op provided housing for 234 low-income families.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A series of apartment buildings under construction with cranes above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New apartments for earthquake survivors under construction in Kilis, southeastern Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change)</span></span>
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<p>After the 2020 İzmir earthquake owners of moderately damaged houses were not eligible for financial support. About 30 families decided to create a similar version of the Düzce housing co-operative. With collaboration from the municipality, they established a co-operative construction project, <a href="https://www.halkkonut.org/">Halk Konut</a>. This co-op allowed earthquake-affected residents to lead both design and construction, while receiving technical and legal expertise from local authorities. </p>
<p>The municipality established a new office where co-operative members could work closely with municipal employees and helped Halk Konut members in negotiations with contractors. Although co-op members made the ultimate decisions, the office supervised both planning and construction activities. </p>
<p>The municipality also granted permission for building two additional floors. By selling the units in these two floors, the co-op received additional funds that made the operation economically feasible. </p>
<p>After construction is completed, co-ops are often dissolved. But during the process, they create a platform for collective discussions about ways to improve neighbourhoods, increase energy-efficiency and integrate public space and green areas. Co-ops also empower earthquake survivors by actively involving them in construction and design, and ensure affordability, sustainability, and community development. </p>
<p>One co-op member we interviewed said: “We didn’t know our neighbours before we initiated the co-operative effort. But now, we design and build our homes together and try to make our neighbourhood more liveable. Once the building is completed, we will organize workshops on civil rights, disasters, and climate change. We now collaborate with local universities, professional associations, and NGOs.”</p>
<p>Co-ops, however, do face several obstacles. Creating one is a long process that requires significant engagement. Despite efforts to reduce costs and share expenses, financing remains the most significant challenge, especially for retired people and others with low incomes. Developing trust and consensus among co-op members can also be difficult. Tensions and conflicts sometimes emerge in a process that depends on mutual trust and engagement.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>With a focus on centralized provision of turnkey projects since 1999, creation of new co-operatives has dramatically decreased. Yet, the co-op model, with its democratic, inclusive, and restorative nature, holds the potential to improve reconstruction strategies in Turkey. It offers an empowering tool for disaster victims based on active participation on decisions about their own future.</p>
<p>Embracing alternative reconstruction methods like co-operative housing is paramount for a resilient future in Turkey. But the model needs to be backed by a comprehensive legal framework, including obligations for contractors to complete projects within the agreed time-frame and ensuring the protection of homeowners’ rights. </p>
<p>The Turkish government must decide whether to maintain outdated strategies or embrace alternative models. It is time to place better strategies at the forefront, steering towards a future where communities actively participate in shaping cities. Otherwise, Turkey will continue to build disconnected settlements with a significant social, financial and environmental cost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gonzalo Lizarralde receives funding from multiple research agencies in Canada, including SSHRC and FRQSC. He is affiliated with i-Rec, an international network of disaster related specialists. He is the holder of the Fayolle-Magil Construction Research Chair of Université de Montréal.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fatma Ozdogan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Turkey is recovering from the most devastating earthquake in its recent history, a timely opportunity emerges to change how to reconstruct housing.Fatma Ozdogan, PhD Student & Researcher, post-disaster reconstruction, Université de MontréalGonzalo Lizarralde, Professeur titulaire - Faculté de l'aménagement, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159782024-01-24T19:45:38Z2024-01-24T19:45:38ZDisaster communications can be more effective when using different messaging strategies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570543/original/file-20240122-38659-poo8s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5761%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">During times of crisis, it is important to communicate clearly.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/disaster-communications-can-be-more-effective-when-using-different-messaging-strategies" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In the past two decades, disasters have left a devastating impact, claiming over a million lives and causing nearly US$3 trillion in global economic losses, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-139-strengthening-disaster-risk-reduction-and-resilience-for-climate-action-through-risk-informed-governance/">according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction</a>.</p>
<p>When responding to disasters, disaster relief organizations (DROs) play a crucial role by mobilizing physical resources such as food and water to help impacted communities. During times of crisis, information resources are just as important as these physical resources. As such, DROs use social media to provide information rapidly and broadly to those that need it. </p>
<p>Many DROs post information via multiple social media accounts on a single platform, with each account representing a unique branch like national headquarters and a local chapter. </p>
<p><a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/41346962">Crisis communications studies suggest</a> that a DRO’s communication channels or social media accounts follow the strategy of “speaking with one voice” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00909880600769944">during the entire disaster response</a>.</p>
<p>My research focuses on information management during and after disasters. My colleagues — <a href="https://kelley.iu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/profile.html?id=YOOEUN">Eunae Yoo</a> and <a href="https://kelley.iu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/profile.html?id=YANLUCY">Lu (Lucy) Yan</a> from Indiana University, and <a href="https://mendoza.nd.edu/mendoza-directory/profile/alfonso-pedraza-martinez/">Alfonso Pedraza-Martinez</a> from the University of Notre Dame — and I conducted a study that challenges the idea of “speaking with one voice.” We argue that this recommended strategy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2022.0121">does not uniformly hold across the disaster management cycle</a>.</p>
<h2>Tailoring messages to audiences</h2>
<p>Audiences for disaster communications include disaster victims, volunteers, donors and other supporters. Sending one consistent message on various accounts and platforms produces messages targeting the same audience when responding to a disaster.</p>
<p>Alternatively and counterintuitively, however, co-ordination may be facilitated by producing messages intended for different audiences. Using Twitter data collected in partnership with the Canadian Red Cross (CRC), our research shows that during the urgent response phase, social media engagement improves by 4.3 per cent from producing convergent content through the match of audiences, while a mismatch or a divergence of audiences yields 29.6 per cent more engagement when uncertainty subsides during the recovery phase.</p>
<p>Our study recommends that DROs take a more nuanced and dynamic approach than prior crisis communication studies suggest, demonstrating the importance of adapting communication strategies to different phases of disaster management.</p>
<h2>Case study: Fort McMurray wildfire</h2>
<p>We looked at communications on Twitter after the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3138183/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-named-canadas-news-story-of-2016/">2016 Fort McMurray wildfire</a>, which was the costliest Canadian natural disaster. The fire reached a size of more than 480,000 hectares in just a few days, and caused estimated insured losses of $3.7 billion. More than 80,000 people were evacuated — the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta — and the fire destroyed the region’s nearby communities, oil sands facilities and infrastructures.</p>
<p>The CRC responded swiftly at both the national and local levels. The local branch that primarily supported the national operations was the CRC in Alberta (CRC-A). Besides supplying and distributing physical resources, the CRC and the CRC-A actively published information on various social media platforms, with Twitter being the most used. </p>
<p>An example of a CRC tweet directed to victims states, “<a href="https://twitter.com/redcrosscanada/status/728951919289438209">Fort McMurray evacuees registration is open, we encourage you to register if you have not already</a>.” User engagement to tweets of this nature helps the swift and wide dissemination of the content, enhancing the CRC’s capacity to respond to disasters. For example, likes and replies to this tweet could have led to more disaster victims seeing the message and registering to receive help.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"728951919289438209"}"></div></p>
<p>A CRC tweet directed to supporters — “<a href="https://twitter.com/redcrosscanada/status/727665472829788160">Donate to help those affected by the fires in Fort McMurray</a>” — may have resulted in more donor aid. In total, the CRC and the CRC-A posted close to 1,800 tweets in the three months after the wildfire broke out. These tweets combined received more than 38,000 retweets and 37,000 likes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"727665472829788160"}"></div></p>
<h2>Increasing engagement</h2>
<p>Measuring engagement as the total number of likes, retweets, clicks and replies, the team used machine learning techniques to identify the audience (victims or supporters) and then analyzed how audience match between accounts affected user engagement.</p>
<p>Our study establishes that a DRO’s communication strategy may involve either a match or a mismatch of audiences, contingent on the phase of the disaster management cycle. As a result, we demonstrate exceptions to the conventional recommendation from crisis communication theory, which advocates for speaking with one voice across an organization’s channels.</p>
<p>We further find that the changes to engagement resulting from matching content creation decisions are unequal between national and local accounts. A match of content creation decisions during the response phase proves more effective in boosting engagement for local accounts than for national accounts. These findings suggest that local accounts should prioritize matching their audience with that targeted by national accounts. Put differently, local accounts should follow the lead of national accounts regarding the supply of information. </p>
<p>In the recovery phase, however, while both national and local accounts should refrain from matching content creation decisions to enhance engagement, it is particularly crucial for national accounts to adhere to this principle.</p>
<p>Our research findings offer actionable guidelines for DROs’ social media messaging, suggesting that a flexible and adaptive approach to social media communication is essential to meet the diverse needs of those affected by disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215978/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Changseung Yoo receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Société et Culture (FRQ-SC). </span></em></p>Tailoring crisis communications strategies across the phases of the disaster management cycle is a more successful approach and can help co-ordinate disaster responses.Changseung Yoo, Assistant Professor, Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195552023-12-19T20:38:38Z2023-12-19T20:38:38Z‘Godzilla Minus One’: Finding paradise of shared co-operation through environmental disaster<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/godzilla-minus-one-finding-paradise-of-shared-co-operation-through-environmental-disaster" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><em>Godzilla Minus One</em>, directed by Takashi Yamazaki, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7DqccP1Q_4">brings viewers back to post-war Japan</a> and to the wholly belligerent monster of the original 1954 <em>Godzilla</em> — a beast bereft of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/05/godzilla-movies-king-of-the-monsters-history/590545/">friendly connotations</a> accrued in the later <a href="https://www.imdb.com/list/ls027620105/">Toho Studios Japanese installments</a>.</p>
<p>This original Godzilla represented what its director, Ishiro Honda, <a href="https://www.criterion.com/current/posts/6649-reign-of-destruction">described</a> as the “invisible fear” of the nuclear contamination of our planet. </p>
<p>Historian William Tsutsui asserts in <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781403964748/godzillaonmymind">his book dedicated to the series</a> that the film allows us to neutralize our fears of potential annihilation. Cathartic or not, this <a href="https://bigthink.com/thinking/apocalypse-philosophy-science-fiction-teaches-existence/">apocalyptic trend</a> remains a staple of science-fiction movies and series to this day. </p>
<p><em>Minus One</em> returns to that fear, once perhaps invisible but <a href="https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ipcc-report/117241/">now undeniable</a>, of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58073295">the disasters incurred by damage</a> to our environment. </p>
<p>At the same time, the film asks how individuals and communities can tackle disaster while embracing an ethos of mutual aid that sidesteps nostalgia for nationalist policies that lead to even more harm.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VvSrHIX5a-0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Godzilla Minus One’ trailer.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disaster response</h2>
<p>In the two most recent instalments in the Godzilla franchise, 2016’s <em>Shin Godzilla</em> and 2023’s <em>Godzilla Minus One</em>, the monster can be read as a personification of a diminished belief in governmental abilities to prevent or respond adequately to disaster. </p>
<p><em>Shin Godzilla</em>, directed by Hideaki Anno, dealt satirically with the <a href="https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/shin-godzilla-review-hideaki-anno-1201735981/">limp governmental response to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami</a>. As the threat of the monster escalates to catastrophic levels, the politicians in the film are more concerned with optics and in which board room they should be conducting their meetings. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3qX1ZU3jcfU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Shin Godzilla’ trailer.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, 2023’s <em>Minus One</em> captures ire for a nationalistic government that guided Japan into imperial campaigns <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Japan/World-War-II-and-defeat">in Asia and finally to a total defeat with a devastating human cost</a>.</p>
<p>When Godzilla arrives <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ph-22HvCNfU">to further compound post-war misery</a>, harried survivors don’t rely on the same government that has led them astray. </p>
<h2>Putting aside ideological differences</h2>
<p>Instead, as some reviews of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/dec/13/godzilla-minus-one-review-rageful-monster-is-one-of-the-best-in-the-series">the film</a> have noted, they turn <a href="https://www.theverge.com/23981319/godzilla-minus-one-review">to a community with the power</a> to act outside of official bodies, making use of technological skills earned through wartime experience. </p>
<p>While the state lends them a few ships, citizens are otherwise left to their own devices, relying on old and decommissioned machinery. They rise to face the monster not by developing a new weapon of destruction but by using what is already at hand. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman's face seen through a window and a giant lizard is reflected." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C734%2C431&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=307&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564718/original/file-20231211-89932-no7p97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Facing the monster requires collaboration in ‘Godzilla Minus One.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(TOHO Co. Ltd.)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The characters in <em>Minus One</em> create a shared purpose in light of their wartime experience. As engineer Noda notes, their lives have been undervalued. This realization leads them to turn away from the government and the nationalist policies that led to the war, and to rely instead on one another.</p>
<p>To do this they must put aside ideological differences to achieve the common goal of stopping Godzilla. This is best illustrated by the co-operation of Koichi Shikishima, a kamikaze pilot who questions the value of his death amid imminent defeat yet is dogged by the shame of his desertion, and an engineer, Sosaku Tachibana, who initially deems Shikishima a coward. </p>
<h2>Revisiting values, alliances</h2>
<p>These plotlines reflect contemporary interest in the local and political communities we should be forging in light of serious environmental threats.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ecological-grief-and-uncontrollable-reality-in-wes-andersons-asteroid-city-211419">Ecological grief and uncontrollable reality in Wes Anderson's 'Asteroid City'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Writer Rebecca Solnit laments <a href="https://therumpus.net/2009/08/07/a-paradise-built-in-hell-the-rumpus-interview-with-rebecca-solnit/">self-serving governmental responses</a> to disaster. But her <em><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/301070/a-paradise-built-in-hell-by-rebecca-solnit/">A Paradise Built in Hell</a></em> focuses on the positives that can come from disaster at the communal level. </p>
<p>She concludes that in enhancing social cohesion and bringing out the humanitarian in each of us, disaster “reveals what else the world could be like.” In short, a paradise of shared purpose and co-operation. </p>
<p>The key, however, is distinguishing between a benign social cohesion, like the aforementioned networks of mutual care, and a malignant one, as seen in destructive forms of nationalism and war. </p>
<p>In <em>Godzilla Minus One</em>, Shikishima and Tachibana band together to save lives. Their wider group insists on a victory <a href="https://religionnews.com/2023/11/29/godzilla-minus-one-offers-a-profound-critique-of-war-and-american-pop-culture/">without the sacrifice of human life</a>, an ethos made possible by adopting a communal view in which humans are not statistics. </p>
<h2>Dream together or die alone</h2>
<p>At a time of an <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/are-yasukuni-shrine-visits-a-sign-of-rising-nationalism-in-japan/">increasingly nationalist Japanese government</a> that has been criticized for <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-japan-ranks-poorly-in-press-freedom/a-65549778">undermining freedom of the press</a>, the film suggests how a nostalgic dream for a return to a time of stronger social ties and a sense of unified purpose is one easily manipulated by nationalist governments. </p>
<p>This has been seen in a host of recent examples including <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-has-made-america-nostalgic-again-for-a-past-that-never-existed-149449">Donald Trump</a>, <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/brexit-britain-and-nostalgia-for-fantasy-past/">Brexit</a> and, as mentioned above, the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2014/02/shinzo-abes-nationalist-strategy/">policies of Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party</a>. </p>
<p>On the global scale, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2019/mar/06/revealed-the-rise-and-rise-of-populist-rhetoric">rise of populism</a>, diplomatic spats and outright conflict sees much of the world drawing away from their neighbours. This is happening when, to counteract the effects of climate change and face the exponential <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2017/11/16/climate-change-will-bring-more-frequent-natural-disasters-weigh-on-economic-growth">increase in disaster</a>, <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/10/04/humanitys-greatest-challenge-coming-together-fight-climate-emergency">we must unite</a>. </p>
<p><em>Godzilla Minus One</em> shows how we must rely on a fondness — even a nostalgia — for times of togetherness that do not mix with a nationalist sentiment that encourages isolationism and aggression towards others. </p>
<p>To do so really would be to go from zero to minus one. From there, there is little guarantee we can recover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219555/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Corker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The film asks how individuals and communities can tackle disaster while embracing an ethos of mutual aid that sidesteps yearning for nationalist policies that lead to even more harm.Chris Corker, PhD Student, Humanities, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2152212023-10-17T09:24:28Z2023-10-17T09:24:28ZWhat 2,500 years of wildfire evidence and the extreme fire seasons of 1910 and 2020 tell us about the future of fire in the West<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553881/original/file-20231015-29-pxqkiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=84%2C333%2C3611%2C2357&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rocky Mountain fires leave telltale ash layers in nearby lakes like this one.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Strong winds blew across mountain slopes after a record-setting warm, dry summer. Small fires began to blow up into huge conflagrations. Towns in crisis scrambled to escape as fires bore down. </p>
<p>This could describe any number of recent events, in places as disparate as <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2021/01/25/colorados-east-troublesome-wildfire-may-signal-a-new-era-of-big-fire-blow-ups/">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2021/02/new-timeline-deadliest-california-wildfire-could-guide-lifesaving-research">California</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-june-30-2021-1.6085919">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/13/maui-wildfire-started-spread/">Hawaii</a>. But this fire disaster happened over 110 years ago in the Northern Rocky Mountains of Idaho and Montana.</p>
<p>The “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-big-burn/">Big Burn</a>” of 1910 still holds the record for the largest fire season in the Northern Rockies. Hundreds of fires burned over 3 million acres – roughly the size of Connecticut – most in just two days. The fires destroyed towns, killed 86 people and galvanized public policies committed to putting out every fire.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo from 1910 shows rail lines and the burned shells of buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553871/original/file-20231015-23-f0ar90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many residents of Wallace, Idaho, fled on trains ahead of the 1910 blaze. Volunteers who stayed saved part of the town, but about a third of it burned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fsnorthernregion/4929826527/in/album-72157624814120716/">R.H. McKay/U.S. Forest Service archive</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, as the climate warms, fire seasons like in 1910 are becoming more likely. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388">2020 fire season</a> was an example. But are extreme fire seasons like these really that unusual in the context of history? And, when fire activity begins to surpass anything experienced in thousands of years – as research suggests is happening in the Southern Rockies – what will happen to the forests?</p>
<p>As paleoecologists, we study how and why ecosystems changed in the past. In a multiyear project, highlighted in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee16">two new</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14201">publications</a>, we tracked how often forest fires occurred in high-elevation forests in the Rocky Mountains over the past 2,500 years, how those fires varied with the climate and how they affected ecosystems. This long view provides both hopeful and concerning lessons for making sense of today’s extreme fire events and impacts on forests.</p>
<h2>Lakes record history going back millennia</h2>
<p>When a high-elevation forest burns, fires consume tree needles and small branches, killing most trees and lofting charcoal in the air. Some of that charcoal lands on lakes and sinks to the bottom, where it is preserved in layers as sediment accumulates. </p>
<p>After the fire, trees regrow and also leave evidence of their existence in the form of pollen grains that fall on the lake and sink to the bottom.</p>
<p>By <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DixyJZCvVQ">extracting a tube</a> of those lake sediments, like a straw pushed into a layer cake from above, we were able to measure the amounts of charcoal and pollen in each layer and reconstruct the history of fire and forest recovery around a dozen lakes across the footprint of the 1910 fires.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman sitting an inflatable boat, wearing a life jacket, holds a long tube filed with lake bottom sediment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553883/original/file-20231016-28-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Author Kyra Clark-Wolf holds a sediment core pulled from a lake containing evidence of fires over thousands of years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Long tubes of lake floor sediment are opened on a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553888/original/file-20231016-26-18q8gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers at the University of Montana examine a sediment core from a high-elevation lake in the Rocky Mountains. Each core is sliced into half-centimeter sections, reflecting around 10 years each, and variations in charcoal within the core are used to reconstruct a timeline of past wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Montana</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Rockies’ long history with fire</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14201">lake sediments revealed</a> that high-elevation, or subalpine, forests in the Northern Rockies in Montana and Idaho have consistently bounced back after fires, even during periods of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2022.17">drier climate</a> and more frequent burning than we saw in the 20th century.</p>
<p>High-elevation forests only burn about once <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/subalpine-forest">every 100 to 250 or more years</a> on average. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acee16">We found</a> that the amount of burning in subalpine forests of the Northern Rockies over the 20th and 21st centuries remained within the bounds of what those forests experienced over the previous 2,500 years. Even today, the Northern Rockies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121283">show resilience to wildfires</a>, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120487">early signs of recovery</a> after extensive fires <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010017">in 2017</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three illustrated charts show forest density increasing and time between fires falling over the past 4,800 years at one location." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554164/original/file-20231017-21-tsez5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Long-term changes in climate, forest density and fire frequency over the past 4,800 years in one high-elevation forest in the Northern Rockies, reconstructed from lake sediments. The red dots reflect timing of past fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kyra Clark-Wolf</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2103135118">similar research</a> in high-elevation forests of the Southern Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming tells a different story.</p>
<p>The record-setting 2020 fire season, with <a href="https://dfpc.colorado.gov/sections/wildfire-information-center/historical-wildfire-information">three of Colorado’s largest fires</a>, helped push the rate of burning in high-elevation forests in Colorado and Wyoming into <a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">uncharted territory</a> relative to the past 2,000 years.</p>
<p>Climate change is also having bigger impacts on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">whether and how forests recover after wildfires</a> in warmer, drier regions of the West, including the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13174">Southern Rockies</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208120120">Southwest and California</a>. When fires are followed by especially warm, dry summers, seedlings can’t establish and forests struggle to regenerate. In some places, shrubby or grassy vegetation replace trees altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphs show fire activity rising with temperature over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553861/original/file-20231015-29-f0ar90.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire history reconstructions from 20 high-elevation lakes in the Southern Rockies show that historically, fires burned every 230 years on average. That has increased significantly in the 21st century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-mountain-forests-burning-more-now-than-any-time-in-the-past-2-000-years-162383">Philip Higuera</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Changes happening now in the Southern Rockies could serve as an early warning for what to expect further down the road in the Northern Rockies.</p>
<h2>Warmer climate, greater fire activity, higher risks</h2>
<p>Looking back thousands of years, it’s hard to ignore the consistent links between the climate and the prevalence of wildfires.</p>
<p>Warmer, drier springs and summers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0">load the dice</a> to make extensive fire seasons more likely. This was the case <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127563">in 1910</a> in the Northern Rockies and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388">in 2020</a> in the Southern Rockies. </p>
<p>When, where and how climate change will push the rate of burning in the rest of the Rockies into uncharted territory is harder to anticipate. The difference between 1910 and 2020 was that 1910 was followed by decades with low fire activity, whereas 2020 was part of an overall trend of increasing fire activity linked with global warming. Just one fire like 1910’s Big Burn in the coming decades, in the context of 21st-century fire activity, would push the Northern Rockies beyond any known records.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tiny pine seedling in a vast landscape of burned trees and soil." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/554092/original/file-20231016-21-sz8p4c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1006&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lodgepole pine tree seedling begins to grow one year after the October 2020 East Troublesome Fire in Rocky Mountain National Park. Recovery in high-elevation forests takes decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Higuera</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from the long view</h2>
<p>The clock is ticking. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13496">Extreme wildfires will become more and more likely</a> as the climate warms, and it will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">harder for forests to recover</a>. Human activity is also raising the risk of fires starting.</p>
<p>The Big Burn of 1910 left a lasting impression because of the devastating impacts on lives and homes and, <a href="https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2022/06/03/east-troublesome-fire-cause-colorado-arapaho-national-forest/7506191001/">as in the 2020 fire season</a> and many other recent fire disasters, because of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">role humans played</a> in igniting them.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo shows burned trees across miles of hillsides along a railroad line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553876/original/file-20231015-25-m2xrcy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The aftermath of the 1910 fire near the North Fork of the St. Joe River in the Coeur d’Alene National Forest, Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/fsnorthernregion/4929815653/in/album-72157624814120716/">R.H. McCoy/U.S. Forest Service archive</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accidental ignitions – from downed power lines, escaped campfires, dragging chains, railroads – expand <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">when and where fires occur</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-wildfires-destroyed-246-more-homes-and-buildings-over-the-past-decade-fire-scientists-explain-whats-changing-197384">they lead to the majority of homes lost to fires</a>. The fire that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/11/business/maui-fire-residential-damage-preliminary-estimate/index.html">destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii</a>, is the most recent example.</p>
<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.unep.org/interactive/six-sector-solution-climate-change/">Curbing greenhouse gas emissions</a> from vehicles, power plants and other sources can help slow warming and the impacts of climate change on wildfires, ecosystems and communities. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-spending-billions-to-reduce-forest-fire-risks-we-mapped-the-hot-spots-where-treatment-offers-the-biggest-payoff-for-people-and-climate-210051">Forest thinning and prescribed burns</a> can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">alter how forests burn</a>, protecting humans and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wests-iconic-forests-are-increasingly-struggling-to-recover-from-wildfires-altering-how-fires-burn-could-boost-their-chances-200668">minimizing the most severe ecological impacts</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0c">Reframing the challenge of living with wildfire</a> – building with fire-resistant materials, reducing accidental ignitions and increasing preparedness for extreme events – can <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-see-more-fire-seasons-like-2020-heres-a-strategy-for-managing-our-nations-flammable-landscapes-149323">help minimize damage</a> while maintaining the critical role that fires have played in forests across the Rocky Mountains for millennia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kyra Clark-Wolf has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Joint Fire Science Program</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Higuera receives funding from the National Science Foundation, United States Geological Survey, and Joint Fire Science Program.</span></em></p>As the climate warms, devastating fires are increasingly likely. The 2020 fires pushed the Southern Rockies beyond the historical average. Is there hope for the Northern Rockies?Kyra Clark-Wolf, Postdoctoral Associate in Ecology, University of Colorado BoulderPhilip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123162023-10-12T17:11:41Z2023-10-12T17:11:41ZSenghenydd colliery disaster: how Britain’s worst mining tragedy revealed the true price of coal<p>Miners working at the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd, south Wales, were in the middle of their morning shifts 2000ft below the ground when a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-18610076">massive explosion</a> ripped through the deep pit at 8.10am. A spark from an electric bell had ignited a deadly mix of methane gas and coal dust, known to miners as “firedamp”. </p>
<p>The blast on October 14 1913 killed 439 men and boys, with another dying during rescue operations. It was, and remains, the <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pathways/census/pandp/places/seng.htm">worst</a> coal mining disaster in British history and also the sixth worst in the world. </p>
<p>But disasters of this dreadful nature occurred with dismal regularity in the south Wales coalfield when the industry was at its height. South Wales was the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4582420/">most dangerous</a> coalfield in what was statistically the most dangerous industry in the UK at that time. </p>
<p>Only a few miles away from Senghenydd, 290 miners had died in an explosion at the <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/albion-colliery-mining-disaster-cilfynydd-16135285">Albion Colliery</a> in Cilfynydd in 1894. The Universal Colliery had itself suffered an earlier explosion, in <a href="https://www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/accidents-disasters/glamorganshire/universal-colliery-explosion-senghenydd-1901/">1901</a>, which killed 81 miners. </p>
<p>Everyone in Senghenydd lost family or friends in the 1913 disaster. It left 542 children fatherless and made widows of more than 200 women. Ninety boys and young men aged 20 or less were killed, with the youngest victims being just 14 years old. One chapel in the village reportedly lost 60% of its male members. </p>
<p>Although Senghenydd bore the brunt of the tragedy, its deadly effects were also felt further afield. A sizeable minority of the miners who were killed lived in the neighbouring village of Abertridwr and other nearby villages, while ten lived as comparatively far away as Cardiff. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ancestry.co.uk/c/uk1911census">1911 Census</a> shows a large number of families and individuals from every part of Wales living or lodging in Senghenydd. It also shows that many of those who were killed in the disaster had come to the village from England and some from Ireland.</p>
<h2>Justice?</h2>
<p>From the perspective of mining families, the official investigations into the disaster added insult to injury. The coroner’s inquest into the disaster returned a verdict of <a href="https://www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/accidents-disasters/glamorganshire/universal-colliery-explosion-senghenydd-1913/">accidental death</a>. </p>
<p>Following the inquest, the colliery’s manager was prosecuted for 17 breaches of the Coal Mines Act, while the company was charged with four breaches. But most of those charges ended up being dropped. </p>
<p>The manager was eventually fined a total of £24 and the company was fined £10 with £5 and 5 shillings costs. As the Merthyr Pioneer newspaper <a href="https://newspapers.library.wales/view/4000499/4000502/27/senghenydd%20disaster%201914">reported</a>: “Miners’ lives at 1s 1¼d each” –- the equivalent of 5.5p per dead miner in today’s money.</p>
<p>The Universal Colliery went back to work at the end of November 1913. It eventually closed in 1928 and the derelict site was demolished in 1963.</p>
<p>In 2013, on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24506122">100th anniversary</a> of the disaster, the <a href="https://www.visitcaerphilly.com/en/senghenydd-national-mining-memorial-garden/">Welsh National Mining Memorial</a> was unveiled on the old colliery site, to commemorate miners killed in the Senghenydd disasters and also to remember the victims of the other 150 mining disasters in Wales. </p>
<p>Hundreds of people gathered to pay their respects and to view the unveiling of the memorial. The scale of the public turnout to the commemoration showed the extent to which the people of the south Wales valleys are still aware of the terrible toll of death and injury that the industry inflicted upon its workforce.</p>
<p>The memorial statue itself depicts a rescue worker helping an injured miner. Surrounding the statute is a walled garden, with tiles inscribed with the details of those killed in the two Senghenydd disasters as well as a “path of memory”, which marks other colliery tragedies in Wales.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yy72FYqG5Is?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A Channel 4 news report from the 100 year commemoration.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the disaster was <a href="https://blog.britishnewspaperarchive.co.uk/2013/10/11/the-mining-disaster-at-the-universal-colliery-in-senghenydd-south-wales-14-october-1913/">widely reported</a> at the time, it faded from memory for most people and is not well known beyond Wales by now. </p>
<p>It is possible that this was due to it being eclipsed by the outbreak of the first world war less than a year later. Or perhaps it was because there were just so many colliery disasters that memory of it merged into a broader, vaguer memory of death and danger in the coalfields. </p>
<h2>Remembering</h2>
<p>Although the collieries are all long gone now, mining disasters continue to retain a contemporary resonance in the folk memory of the south Wales coalfield region. </p>
<p>This was seen in <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/coal-spoil-tips-landslide-safe-17826953">popular responses</a> to a coal tip landslide in Tylorstown in 2020, which is just 11km away from Senghenydd. It was reflective of the visceral horror at the <a href="https://aberfan.walesonline.co.uk">Aberfan disaster</a> of October 1966, in which 116 children and 28 adults were killed when a coal tip slid downhill onto a primary school. </p>
<p>Such latter-day commemoration, as often as not via social media nowadays, is perpetuated by people who in many cases have no personal memory of these disasters –- yet nevertheless, we remember. The people of the valleys have never forgotten that coal was always stained with blood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Curtis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four hundred and forty men and boys were killed in the Senghenydd colliery disaster, with the youngest victims aged just 14 years old.Ben Curtis, Historian, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2103572023-09-13T21:16:04Z2023-09-13T21:16:04ZWhy we must address the interconnected harms to people, animals and ecosystems in train derailments<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-we-must-address-the-interconnected-harms-to-people-animals-and-ecosystems-in-train-derailments" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On June 24, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/25/us/montana-train-derailment-cleanup-yellowstone-river">a train derailment in Montana caused a bridge to collapse</a>, sending hot asphalt and molten sulfur spewing into the Yellowstone River. The derailment came nearly five months after the disastrous derailment near East Palestine, Ohio that raised awareness of rail transportation’s risks and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1161921856/">prompted renewed efforts to increase rail safety measures</a>. Here in Canada, we have seen comparable <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-kingston-train-derailment-1.6833701">derailments in Ontario</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9413210/investigation-cpr-freight-train-derailment-chaplin-sask/">Saskatoon</a> — and the deadly <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/lac-megantic-10-year-anniversary-1.6899335">Lac-Mégantic rail disaster</a> in Québec in 2013.</p>
<p>Still, rail companies continue to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/22/norfolk-southern-derailment-safety-warning.html">ignore safety warnings</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/24/world/americas/canada-train-derailment.html">cut corners on safety measures</a>, and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/train-derailment-ohio-ntsb-29a4a6fab0eb21fcb69223a28ff41ea5">make job cuts</a>.</p>
<p>Notably, most discussions surrounding derailments focus on the impacts to people, minimizing the importance and interconnections of harms to non-human species. However, paying close attention to the harms caused to animals and the environment can create a more accurate picture of damage in a disaster context. </p>
<p>Considering the well-being of humans, animals and the environment can be a valuable approach to a wide range of disaster response plans. </p>
<h2>Derailments, still a major problem</h2>
<p>Trains are generally regarded as the safest way to transport dangerous goods, and derailments in the U.S. have decreased <a href="https://www.aar.org/news/fra-2022-safety-data-reflects-industrys-safety-commitment/">44 per cent in the last two decades</a>. However, the U.S. alone still <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1161921856/">averages about three derailments per day</a>, <a href="https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2023/6/new-map-shows-hazardous-train-derailments-pose-an-urgent-threat-to-communities">with many carrying hazardous substances</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1161921856/there-are-about-3-u-s-train-derailments-per-day-they-arent-usually-major-disaste">Typically, most train derailments do not result in major incidents, though it takes just one to have lasting effects on communities</a> comprised of multiple different species. </p>
<h2>Linking human, animal & plant well-being</h2>
<p>A deeper picture of harm emerges when viewing the impacts of these disasters through human-animal relationships. People are more likely to evacuate disaster zones <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/reports/katrina-lessons-learned/chapter5.html">if they can find safe passage for their pets</a>, who are often considered members of the family. While losing pets can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jts.20403">add to the trauma that displaced people experience</a>.</p>
<p>A significant population impacted by the East Palestine derailment were pets, while the Columbiana County Humane Society, a registered non-profit organization, was <a href="https://www.wkbn.com/news/local-news/east-palestine-train-derailment/animal-shelters-take-in-east-palestines-pets/">quickly overrun with evacuating animals</a>. Some could be housed, but most were not as lucky. </p>
<p>The Humane Society’s response was swift but hampered by the financial constraints registered charities experience. The work these animal charities do in disasters are often limited, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwao.12230">resulting in incomplete protection</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, we do not know how many assisted and unassisted animals were companions, emotional support, or service animals, nor do we know the long-term impacts on the animals or their guardians because that data is not collected. </p>
<p>While there are some organizations that protect pets during disaster management, there are ultimately fewer protections for <a href="https://www.worldanimalprotection.ca/our-work/animals-disasters">wild animals</a> or plant life. Simply put, wild animals are harder to locate and assist, and their well-being has little impact on the psychological lives of humans — apart from the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/oil-spill-bird-rehabilitation-advances">scarring images of oil-drenched seabirds</a> or <a href="https://www.savethekoala.com/blog-post/sad-story-of-ash-the-koala-highlights-the-need-for-a-koala-protection-act/">ash-covered koalas</a>. As a result, wild animals are usually affected by disasters long after the spaces are deemed safe for humans. </p>
<h2>Forever chemicals</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-02/02%2021%2023%20Norfolk%20Southern%20Removal%20UAO%20-%20Signature%201-508checked.pdf">The chemicals released</a> in the East Palestine derailment were all highly dangerous, toxic and flammable industrial chemicals. Moreover, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b02028">polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAs) used in firefighting after the incident were themselves toxic forever chemicals</a>. These PFAs do not break down easily, persisting in human and non-human environments for generations.</p>
<p>When chemicals do break down, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b02028">their by-products can have distinct levels of toxicity</a> that will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1201/b11767">vary from species to species</a>. Some products even <a href="http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/rail/2013/r13d0054/r13d0054.html">contain multiple ingredients</a> in varying concentrations which can cause additional <a href="https://www.lindecanada.ca/-/media/corporate/praxair-canada/documents-en/safety-data-sheet-linde-canada/e-4606-hydrogen-chloride-safety-data-sheet-sds.pdf">unexpected hazards</a> as they break down, with potentially unknown effects on the natural world. </p>
<p>While the degradation process can bring environmental contamination down to “acceptable” levels, these acceptability thresholds are <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315581644">based on a substance’s level of toxicity to humans.</a> Generally speaking, the effects of toxic chemicals can be equally, if not more, significant for animals and plants as for us.</p>
<p>Contaminants and their impacts can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12051219">be transferred to other species through food chains</a>. Changes in soil chemistry and reduced nutrient uptake in plants can decrease the concentration of vital elements and nutrients for other species to consume. Decreased nutrients in one species’ main food source can lead to decreased nutrition all along the food chain.</p>
<h2>The whole picture</h2>
<p>While the residents of East Palestine returned to their homes, <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/vance-east-palestine-waiting-for-biden">lingering chemicals remained in the environment</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.nlc.org/resource/interactive-rail-safety-map-see-derailments-in-communities-across-the-u-s/">more trains continue to derail</a>. </p>
<p>It is clear that strengthening animal and environmental protections in risk prevention and emergency response systems is vital moving forward to protect environments and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter-211719">ecosystem services upon which we all depend</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rail-accidents-public-safety-and-accountability-suffer-because-of-deregulation-200506">Rail accidents: Public safety and accountability suffer because of deregulation</a>
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<p>Relevant regulations and standards should also be improved to incorporate animals and the environment so as to prioritize biodiversity and ecosystem services.</p>
<p>Disasters, such as train derailments, constitute a major threat to human, animal and environmental health. And these harms are interconnected in important ways. Including animals in emergency response plans is a vital step, but we also need to normalize the inclusion of animals and the environment in both our discussions and policy responses to disaster management. To not do so, is to ignore a major aspect of disaster relief management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Focusing solely on humans at the expense of other life in the aftermath of train derailments limits the effectiveness of our disaster response management.Bridget Nicholls, PhD Candidate, Department of Sociology & Criminology, University of WindsorAmy Fitzgerald, Professor, Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminology, University of WindsorJennifer Halliday, PhD Student in Sociology and Social Justice, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133372023-09-13T12:28:34Z2023-09-13T12:28:34ZWhat causes earthquakes? A geologist explains where they’re most common and why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547877/original/file-20230912-15-58zzx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A man works his way through the rubble of buildings in Marrakesh, Morocco, after a magnitude 6.8 earthquake on Sept. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/resident-navigates-through-the-rubble-following-a-6-8-news-photo/1653682958?adppopup=true">Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earthquakes, large and small, <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/">happen every single day</a> along zones that wrap around the world like seams on a baseball. Most don’t bother anybody, so they don’t make the news. But every now and then a catastrophic earthquake hits people somewhere in the world with horrific destruction and immense suffering. </p>
<p>On Oct. 7, 2023, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck near the historic city of Herat, Afghanistan, leaving <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/11/afghanistan-hit-by-second-strong-earthquake-in-days">more than 1,000 people</a> dead in the rubble, according to estimates. It was followed by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-earthquake-usgs-aftershocks-63-magnitude-8f6055342900e320ec5a5e4ea898399a">two more earthquakes, just as powerful</a>, on Oct. 11 and Oct. 15. A few weeks earlier, on Sept. 8, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02880-3">shook ancient villages apart</a> in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco, killing nearly 3,000 people. In February 2023, a large area of <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-syria-earthquakes-still-living-in-the-rubble-6-months-later/a-66444041">Turkey and Syria</a> was devastated by two major earthquakes that hit in close succession.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=r8FqGBEAAAAJ&hl=en">a geologist</a>, I study the forces that cause earthquakes. Here’s why some seismic zones are very active while others may be quiet for generations before the stress builds into a catastrophic event.</p>
<h2>Earth’s crust crashes into itself and pulls apart</h2>
<p>Earthquakes are part of the normal behavior of the Earth. They occur with the movement of the tectonic plates that form the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/crust-mantle-and-core-earth">outer layer of the planet</a>.</p>
<p>You can think of the plates as a more or less rigid outer shell that has to shift to allow the Earth to give off its internal heat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A world map shows dots for major earthquakes clustered along tectonic plate boundaries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547854/original/file-20230912-21-phdrl7.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of all earthquakes greater than magnitude 5 from 1960 to 2023 clearly shows the outlines of the tectonic plates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquakes">USGS/GMRT</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These plates carry the continents and the oceans, and they are continuously in <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/plate-boundaries.html">slow-motion crashes</a> with one another. The cold and dense oceanic plates dive under continental plates and back into Earth’s mantle in a process <a href="https://youtu.be/T1QKPoxMdGg">known as subduction</a>. As an oceanic plate sinks, it drags everything behind it and opens a rift somewhere else that is filled by rising hot material from the mantle that then cools. These rifts are long chains of underwater volcanoes, known as <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/mid-ocean-ridge.html">mid-ocean ridges</a>. </p>
<p>Earthquakes accompany both subduction and rifting. In fact, that is how the plate boundaries were first discovered.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, when a <a href="https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7Erichards/EARTHmat.html">global seismic network was established</a> to monitor nuclear tests, geophysicists noticed that most earthquakes occur along relatively narrow bands that either fringe the edges of ocean basins, as in the Pacific, or cut right down the middle of basins, <a href="https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics/Chap3-Plate-Margins/Divergent/Mid-Atlantic-Ridge">as in the Atlantic</a>. </p>
<p>They also noticed that earthquakes along subduction zones are shallow on the oceanic side but <a href="https://www.mheducation.com/highered/product/exploring-geology-reynolds-johnson/M9781260722215.html">get deeper under the continent</a>. If you plot the earthquakes in 3D, they define slablike features that trace the plates sinking into the mantle.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two images show a map of Japan, with the Pacific Plate evident to the east, and a side view of earthquake depths that highlight that subducting plate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547879/original/file-20230912-17-ed8b9v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ten thousand earthquake locations from 1980 to 2009 trace the Pacific Plate as it subducts under northern Japan. The top image is a side view showing the depth of the earthquakes beneath the rectangle on the map.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jaime Toro</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An experiment: How an earthquake works</h2>
<p>To understand what happens during an earthquake, put the palms of your hands together and press with some force. You are modeling a plate boundary fault. Each hand is one plate, and the surface of your hands is the fault. Your muscles are the plate tectonic system.</p>
<p>Now, add some forward force to your right hand. You will find that it will eventually jerk forward when the forward force overcomes the friction between your palms. That sudden forward jerk is the earthquake. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows two creeks with abrupt shifts in their location over the fault." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547862/original/file-20230912-17-mhw68w.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Google Earth image of creeks offset by movement along the San Andreas Fault in Southern California as the Pacific Plate moves to the northwest with respect to North America.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earth.google.com/web/">Jaime Toro</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists explain earthquakes using what’s known as the <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18april/reid.php">elastic rebound theory</a>.</p>
<p>Fast plates move at up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) per year, driven mostly by the oceanic slabs sinking at subduction zones. Over time, they become stuck to each other by friction at the plate boundary. The attempted motion deforms the plate boundary zone elastically, like a loaded spring. At some point, the accumulated elastic energy overcomes the friction and the plate jerks forward, causing an earthquake.</p>
<p>But the <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tectonics.html">plate-driving forces</a> do not stop, so the plate boundary starts to accumulate elastic energy again, which will cause another earthquake – perhaps soon or perhaps far in the future.</p>
<p>In the oceans, plate boundaries are narrow and well defined because the underlying rocks are very stiff. But within the continents, plate boundaries are often broad zones of deformed mountainous terrain crisscrossed by many faults. Those faults may persist for eons, even if the plate boundary becomes inactive. That is why sometimes earthquakes occur far from plate boundaries.</p>
<h2>Earthquakes, fast and slow</h2>
<p>The cyclic behavior of faults allows seismologists to <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes">estimate earthquake risks statistically</a>. Plate boundaries with fast motions, such as the ones along the Pacific rim, accumulate elastic energy rapidly and have the potential for frequent large-magnitude earthquakes.</p>
<p>Slow-moving plate boundary faults take longer to reach a critical state. Along some faults, hundreds or even thousands of years can pass between large earthquakes. This allows time for towns to grow and for people to lose ancestral memory of past earthquakes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The few standing walls of a house are severely cracked. The roof is gone, and rubble lies on the floor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553081/original/file-20231010-29-h855wn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The earthquake near Herat, Afghanistan, on Oct. 7, 2023, shook rural homes apart.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/herat-afghanistan-cracked-walls-and-rubble-are-seen-in-a-news-photo/1713772432?adppopup=true">Muhammad Balabuluki/Middle East Images/Middle East Images via AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The earthquake in Morocco is an example. Morocco is located on the boundary <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqK-CbuM3Eo">between the African and the Eurasian plates</a>, which are slowly crashing into each other.</p>
<p>The huge belt of mountains that extends from the Atlas of North Africa to the Pyrenees, Alps and most of the mountains across southern Europe and the Middle East is the product of this plate collision. Yet because these plate motions are slow near Morocco, large earthquakes are not so frequent.</p>
<p>Afghanistan is <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000le6y/region-info">more prone to earthquakes</a>. It has numerous faults created by the collision of India against Eurasia. The Indian Plate, which is old and stiff, has been plowing into the southern margin of Eurasia for the past 40 million years. You can see evidence of this slow-moving collision in the way the mountain chains – and the earthquakes – wrap around either side of India.</p>
<h2>Preparing for the big one</h2>
<p>An important fact about catastrophic earthquakes is that, in most cases, the earthquakes don’t kill people – falling buildings do.</p>
<p>Most Americans have heard of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/us/san-andreas-fault-researchers.html">California’s San Andreas Fault</a> and the seismic risk to San Francisco and Los Angeles. The last major earthquake along the San Andreas Fault <a href="https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/loma-prieta">hit at Loma Prieta</a>, in the San Francisco Bay area, in 1989. Its magnitude, 6.9, was comparable to that of the earthquake in Morocco, yet 63 people died compared with thousands. That’s largely because building codes in these earthquake-prone U.S. cities are now designed to keep structures standing when the Earth shakes.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILlyfwDwJVs">exceptions are tsunamis</a>, the huge waves generated when an earthquake shifts the seafloor, displacing the water above it. A tsunami that hit <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/day-2011-japan-earthquake-and-tsunami">Japan in 2011</a> had horrific consequences, regardless of the quality of engineering in coastal towns.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, earthquake scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/seismologists-cant-predict-an-impending-earthquake-but-longer-term-forecasts-and-brief-warnings-after-one-starts-are-possible-199666">can’t predict exactly when</a> an earthquake might occur; they can only estimate the hazard.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Sept. 13, 2023, has been updated with another powerful earthquake in Afghanistan.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaime Toro has received funding from NSF, USGS and DOE in the past.</span></em></p>A deadly earthquake in Afghanistan, following one in Morocco, highlights the risks in the region.Jaime Toro, Professor of Geology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122432023-09-10T13:04:16Z2023-09-10T13:04:16ZCanada’s lack of recognition for gender-based violence is putting disaster survivors at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546717/original/file-20230906-29-yolnrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C0%2C2938%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evidence suggests gender-based violence increases during disasters and in the years that follow.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadas-lack-of-recognition-for-gender-based-violence-is-putting-disaster-survivors-at-risk" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canada has experienced an <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/here-s-a-look-at-what-s-happened-in-canada-s-record-breaking-wildfire-season-so-far-1.6512161">unprecedented wildfire season in 2023</a>. People’s experiences with any disaster event are influenced by social- and place-based vulnerabilities. For example, where you live affects your exposure to different hazards including wildfires and floods. </p>
<p>Pre-existing <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781420078572/social-vulnerability-disasters-deborah-thomas-brenda-phillips-lynn-blinn-pike-alice-fothergill">social vulnerabilities contribute to some populations having disproportionate impacts from these events</a>, in both the short and long term. Social vulnerability factors that have a demonstrated effect on people’s experience with disasters include income, health, disability, age, race, and gender. These factors also intersect in ways that increase vulnerability for certain populations. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests <a href="https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-390">gender-based violence increases during disasters</a> and in the years that follow. Further, the risk for <a href="https://journals.gre.ac.uk/index.php/gswr/article/download/1088/pdf">women</a> and <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Identifying-the-experiences-and-needs-of-LGBTI-emergencies-FINAL.pdf">LGBTQI populations</a> is heightened when sheltering in place or evacuation from a community is required. </p>
<p>Evidence of gender-based violence during and after disasters can be reflected in increased calls from women to police and domestic violence helplines. However, it is estimated that <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/csj-sjc/ccs-ajc/rr06_vic2/p3_4.html">78 per cent of cases of sexual assault</a> in Canada are not reported for a variety of reasons. </p>
<p>It is important to recognize that social vulnerabilities are not inherent individual traits, rather <a href="https://hal.science/hal-02001407/document">vulnerability stems from historic inequities</a> over time that impact access to resources and marginalize people. </p>
<p>Government preparedness for and responses to disasters must consider and address how social vulnerabilities increase disaster risk and adverse outcomes for some populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man and woman in a kitchen arguing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supports like counselling centres, women’s shelters and sexual assault centres can be disrupted during a disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Gaps in emergency management planning</h2>
<p>My research examines how social vulnerabilities, gender and gender-based violence are addressed in government plans for responding to disasters and pandemics. <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Recognition-of-the-Gendered-Impacts-of-Disasters-EN-1.pdf">In my research</a>, I found that federal, provincial, territorial and local government emergency management plans in Canada acknowledge how social vulnerabilities contribute to the differential impacts of hazard events for households and communities. </p>
<p>Importantly, the federal government recently published two reports examining how social vulnerability contributes to disaster risk: the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/ntnl-rsk-prfl/index-en.aspx#s2">National Risk Profile</a> and the report on <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2022/rncan-nrcan/m183-2/M183-2-8902-eng.pdf">Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Canada</a>. </p>
<p>However, my research also found these reports and plans do not address how gender influences the direct and indirect impacts of disasters, including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/domestic-violence-will-spike-in-the-bushfire-aftermath-and-governments-can-no-longer-ignore-it-127018">increase in gender-based violence during and following disasters</a>. </p>
<p>While federal, provincial and territorial governments have made <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-results-framework.html">commitments to addressing gender inequities</a> and the use of <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-based-analysis-plus/government-approach.html">gender-based analysis tools such as GBA+</a>, I found limited reference or commitment to the use of these tools. </p>
<p>GBA+ tools examine how gender intersects with other identity factors, such as age, ethnicity and income to differentiate experiences of women, men and gender diverse populations. </p>
<p>Public Safety Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/dprtmntl-pln-2023-24/index-en.aspx">Departmental Plan</a> references GBA+ when addressing emergency management. However, the plans address social vulnerability more generally and no commitments are made to address gender specifically.</p>
<p>The only identified government funded report addressing gender and disaster in the Canadian context was a <a href="https://wrd.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/9457_9457GenderMainstreamingCanada1.pdf">2008 report</a> by the Public Health Agency of Canada.</p>
<p>The federal and some but not all provincial and territorial governments took <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/FPT-Govt-Actions-to-Address-GBV-EN.pdf">actions during the pandemic</a> to address the increase in gender-based violence. However, there has been no concerted effort by Canadian governments to address the gendered impacts of disasters more generally.</p>
<h2>Gender-based violence and disasters</h2>
<p>There is an established <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/research/">body of research</a> on gender-based violence during Australian bushfires. Researchers found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260517696876">domestic violence occurred</a> in households where a woman had previously experienced violence, as well as in households were there had been stable non-violent relationships. </p>
<p>Further, those experiencing violence noted an increase of the severity of the violence following the disasters. These same patterns were noted in the pandemic in Canada.</p>
<p>The Australian research also found women’s unemployment or homelessness during a disaster was exploited by men who return under the guise of offering assistance. In other instances, men’s behaviour during disaster was excused by counsellors or police because of the stresses brought on by a disaster. The dismissal of violence in the context of a disaster harms women.</p>
<p>Another concern is that supports like counselling centres, women’s shelters and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Catherine-Carter-Snell/publication/359635464_Gaps_in_Sexual_Assault_Prevention_in_Natural_Disasters/links/6245fbba8068956f3c5c762b/Gaps-in-Sexual-Assault-Prevention-in-Natural-Disasters.pdf">sexual assault centres</a> can be disrupted during a disaster. In the recent evacuation of Yellowknife, all these services would likely have been impacted. Further, communication infrastructure is also impacted by disasters, which can limit the ability to call for help. </p>
<p>The Canadian Women’s Foundation recently supported the <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Service-Continuity-Guidelines-for-the-GBV-Sector-EN.pdf">development of guidance to help these organizations</a> prepare for service disruptions in the event of a disaster.</p>
<h2>A call to action</h2>
<p>We have a <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/ZACTEO-3">moral and ethical imperative</a> to address the inequitable effects of disasters within society. </p>
<p>Recommendations on how to address the gendered impacts of disasters, including gender-based violence, include <a href="https://interagencystandingcommittee.org/system/files/2018-iasc_gender_handbook_for_humanitarian_action_eng_0.pdf">The Gender Handbook for Humanitarian Action</a>, <a href="https://gbvguidelines.org/en/">Guidelines for Integrating Gender-Based Violence Interventions in Humanitarian Action</a>, the Red Cross <a href="https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/Minimum-standards-for-protection-gender-and-inclusion-in-emergencies-LR.pdf">Minimum Standard Commitments to Gender and Diversity in Emergency Programming</a> and the UN’s <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/featured-publication/gbvie-standards">Minimum Standards for Prevention and Response to Gender-based Violence in Emergencies</a>. </p>
<p>Australia has made significant investments in addressing <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/">the gendered impacts of disasters</a>. Their process offers an example of what is needed in Canada to advance gender and disaster practice. </p>
<p>The mandate to address <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en.html">gender inequities in Canada is already in place</a>, as are <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-based-violence.html">plans to address gender-based violence</a>. There is an urgent imperative to bring the work addressing gender-based inequity and violence into emergency management practice. These efforts need to be led by all orders of government and integrated into their <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2022-ems-ctn-pln/index-en.aspx">action plans for improving emergency management practices</a> in Canada.</p>
<p>Experts on the gendered impacts of disasters must become part of the emergency response effort. In addition to integrating gender analysis in planning activities, rapid gender analysis needs to be conducted at the outset of a disaster and throughout the recovery period.</p>
<p>Further, emergency management organizations need to work closely with counselling centres, women’s shelters and sexual assault services to ensure they have the capacity to respond to disasters. These organizations must be recognized as an essential service when disasters occur.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Research funding recieved from the Canadian Women's Foundation.</span></em></p>Research shows gender-based violence increases in the aftermath of disasters. Governments must incorporate ways of addressing it into their disaster response plans.Jean Slick, Professor, Disaster and Emergency Management, Royal Roads UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084242023-08-18T20:22:39Z2023-08-18T20:22:39ZYellowknife fires: Evacuees will need culturally specific support services<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/yellowknife-fires-evacuees-will-need-culturally-specific-support-services" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On the evening of Aug. 16, due to rapidly moving wildfires, an evacuation order was issued for the entire city of Yellowknife. Thousands of residents <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yellowknife-wildfire-evacuation-journeys-1.6939446">faced a long, stressful drive on the only road out of the city</a>. The goal was for as many people as possible to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66526554">flee one of the largest cities in Canada’s North before the deadline for safe exit</a> of Aug. 18 at noon Mountain Daylight Time.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Reuters reports on the evacuation order issued in Yellowknife, N.W.T.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a researcher in disaster and emergency management, I have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3488-4">studied the implications of what happened in Fort McMurray, Alta., in 2016</a>, a similar situation where a large city in Canada’s North faced full evacuation due to fire. I am also a member of a research team at York University that looks at “<a href="https://emforall.com/">emergency management for all</a>” — analyzing how the needs of the whole community are met, or not, during mass emergencies.</p>
<p>We studied Fort McMurray’s Muslim community to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2019.099374">explore how they experienced mass evacuation</a>. Our research found that the needs of a segment of the population were overlooked during mass evacuation. Perhaps, seven years later, this will not happen again. </p>
<h2>Similarities to Fort McMurray</h2>
<p>In May 2016, a large fast-moving wildfire jumped from the surrounding rural areas and into the city of Fort McMurray, Alta., causing <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-may-3-2016-fort-mcmurray-evacuations-begin">approximately 88,000 people to flee</a>. Canadians were shocked and saddened by the televised images of slow-moving lines of cars passing in close proximity to massive walls of flames.</p>
<p>In August 2023, Canadians are again seeing disturbing images of slow-moving traffic along smoky two-lane roads in Canada’s remote northern locales. While it is too soon to make detailed comparisons between the Fort McMurray evacuation in 2016 and the ongoing Yellowknife evacuation, there appear to be some things in common.</p>
<p>At both places, evacuations are made more difficult due to northern Canada’s geographic realities. Highway evacuations involve traversing hundreds of kilometres, and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yellowknife-air-evacuation-begins-1.6939256">airlifts face capacity limits</a>, although an official said <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yellowknife-fire-northwest-territories-canada-wildfire-aug-18-1.6940408">there is room for everyone who wants to fly out</a>. </p>
<p>During Fort McMurray’s evacuation, only one southbound road was available for evacuation. Similar to northern Alberta, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-wildfires-crews-battle-stop-blaze-yellowknife-evacuates-2023-08-17/">the Northwest Territories has limited infrastructure</a>, and most people evacuating Yellowknife can only use one road to drive to <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/northwest-territories-wildfire-evacuation">reception centres hundreds of kilometres south in Alberta</a>.</p>
<h2>Culturally appropriate services</h2>
<p>While it is hoped that fire conditions change, it is possible that the fire will <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2256232003514">reach the outskirts of Yellowknife</a>. If that happens, it could be weeks if not months before 20,000 residents can return. Other locales will have to absorb Yellowknife’s entire population for extended periods.</p>
<p>In the immediate short term, the needs of the evacuees will shift from temporary relief to requiring more permanent services. Evacuees will benefit if some semblance of “home away from home” can be provided. That hospitality includes culturally appropriate evacuee hosting. </p>
<p>At the time of the 2016 fire disaster at Fort McMurray, the largest visible minority group was the Muslim community. Today, there are still <a href="https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-muslims-invite-non-muslims-to-learn-about-islam-at-ramadan-feast">7,000 to 10,000 Muslims residing in Fort McMurray</a>. </p>
<p>Whether it was fully understood during the chaos of the 2016 fire evacuations or not, thousands of people had specific cultural needs that became evident in evacuation centres.</p>
<p>As days turned to weeks, challenges for Muslim evacuees emerged. The disaster occurred during the start of Ramadan, and scheduled mass feeding times in large shelters conflicted with traditional sunrise-to-sunset fasting during Ramadan. Evacuation centres hosting Fort McMurray’s evacuees were unprepared for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-research-muslim-evacuation-1.5128104">meeting the needs of the sizeable Muslim population</a>.</p>
<h2>Anticipating diverse needs</h2>
<p>Like Fort McMurray, Yellowknife is a culturally diverse community. When Yellowknife’s diverse population arrives at reception centres in Alberta, it is an open question whether they will be met with culturally appropriate services. Initial analysis indicates at least three significant distinct cultural groups among the evacuees from Yellowknife.</p>
<p>Canada’s Northwest Territories is home to Indigenous Peoples, and Yellowknife is <a href="https://www.yellowknife.ca/en/living-here/indigenous-peoples.aspx">located on the traditional lands of the Dene First Nation</a>. <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/news/nwt-yellowknife-wildfires-alberta-friendship-centres">Friendship centres in Alberta</a>, such as in Grande Prairie and High Level, are offering support, food and other necessities to Indigenous evacuees from the Northwest Territories. </p>
<p>The largest visible minority group in Yellowknife is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yellowknife-filipino-community-balances-celebration-grief-this-filipino-heritage-month-1.6085351">the Filipino population</a>, with about 1,065 people. </p>
<p>Historically, Yellowknife has attracted a significant number of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ircc/migration/ircc/english/pdf/immigration-matters/economicprofile-yellowknife-nwt-en-final.pdf">French-speaking people</a>, and there is a significant francophone community, making up nearly 17 per cent of the city’s population.</p>
<h2>There is no “one size fits all”</h2>
<p>As the mass evacuation of Yellowknife unfolds, the needs of minority, racialized and marginalized populations will emerge. Past experiences indicate emergency officials at centres hosting evacuees in Alberta may not be ready to meet the needs of a diverse population.</p>
<p>Again, there exists the potential for minority populations having their needs overlooked by emergency services during mass evacuations. We know from the Fort McMurray experience that social issues related to diversity, equity and inclusion are real-life concerns impacting the evacuation experiences for thousands of Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1692569935929655556"}"></div></p>
<p>The unfolding Yellowknife evacuation effort will not be a one-size-fits-all experience for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/northwest-territories-official-name-1.4987395">Northwest Territorians</a>. At this early point in the mass evacuation, it can be anticipated that social and cultural needs of all Yellowknifers will need to be acknowledged and acted upon. </p>
<p>Adaptations to standard operating procedures will need to be made at evacuation centres in Alberta to meet the needs of thousands of people with varying and culturally specific needs arriving from Yellowknife.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack L. Rozdilsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the mass evacuation of Yellowknife unfolds, the needs of minority populations will emerge. Past experiences indicate emergency officials may not be ready to meet the needs of a diverse population.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115892023-08-18T12:39:32Z2023-08-18T12:39:32ZIdentifying fire victims through DNA analysis can be challenging − a geneticist explains what forensics is learning from archaeology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543315/original/file-20230817-17-h1y2zw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1024%2C683&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Identifying victims after a disaster can offer closure to loved ones.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/2b2bf672bfc14794b8fbc20138f36c62">AP Photo/Jae C. Hong</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire devastates communities and families, and it makes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1556-4029.2012.02083.x">identification of victims challenging</a>. In the aftermath of the wildfire that swept through Lahaina, Hawaii, <a href="https://www.staradvertiser.com/2023/08/14/hawaii-news/maui-families-provide-dna-to-help-id-remains-of-fire-victims/">officials are collecting DNA samples</a> from relatives of missing persons in the hope that this can aid in identifying those who died in the fire. </p>
<p>But how well does DNA hold up under such extreme conditions, and what is the best way to recover DNA from fire victims? </p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xqKVKIwAAAAJ&hl=en">anthropological geneticist</a> who studies degraded DNA in archaeological and forensic contexts. <a href="https://stone.lab.asu.edu">My research group</a> applies ancient DNA and forensic analysis methods to optimize DNA recovery from burned bones. Retrieving DNA from severely burned remains in order to identify victims is a particular challenge.</p>
<h2>Forensic DNA analysis</h2>
<p>In a typical forensic investigation, <a href="https://www.forensicsciencesimplified.org/dna/how.html">DNA is extracted</a> from a sample – whether some blood, pieces of tissue or bone – collected from the scene of the disaster or crime. This process chemically separates the DNA from other components of cells within the sample, such as proteins, and purifies it. </p>
<p>This DNA is used as a template for <a href="https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Polymerase-Chain-Reaction-Fact-Sheet">polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, analysis</a>, a method that is essentially the Xerox copier of molecular biology. Even if there are only a few cells present in the sample, PCR can amplify those DNA molecules into thousands or millions of copies. This creates a sufficient amount of DNA for subsequent tests.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">DNA analysis can help identify victims by comparing genetic similarities between people.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In forensics, the specific DNA targeted in PCR is usually a set of highly repetitive markers called <a href="https://strbase-archive.nist.gov/intro.htm">microsatellites, or short tandem repeats</a>. Law enforcement agencies around the world use specific sets of these markers for identification purposes. In the U.S., forensic analysts target 20 of these DNA repeats. Each person has two unique alleles, or genetic variants, at each of these markers, and these alleles are uploaded to the FBI’s <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/dna-fingerprint-act-of-2005-expungement-policy/codis-and-ndis-fact-sheet">Combined DNA Index System database</a> to identify matches. </p>
<p>DNA taken from the <a href="https://namus.nij.ojp.gov/services/dna#faq-what-is-a-family-reference-sample">relatives of missing people</a> will likely be analyzed for short tandem repeat markers and their allele profiles uploaded to the Relatives of Missing Persons index within the database. The expectation is that victims and their biological relatives share a percentage of alleles for these markers. For example, parents and children share 50% of their alleles, since a child inherits half of their DNA from each parent.</p>
<h2>Challenge of degraded DNA</h2>
<p>In forensic contexts, the time between death and DNA sampling is usually short enough that the DNA is often still in fairly good shape, both in terms of quantity and quality. However, DNA is often not found in ideal conditions after a disaster. </p>
<p>Time and the elements <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/20961790.2018.1515594">take their toll</a>. After death, the process of decomposition releases enzymes that can cleave or damage DNA, and additional damage occurs over time depending on the environment in which the body is found. DNA also degrades faster in warm, wet, acidic environments and slower in colder, drier environments that are more pH neutral or slightly basic. </p>
<p>In addition, DNA preservation may vary considerably among the tissues, bones and teeth recovered. For example, researchers found that DNA identification of victims of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1556-4029.2009.01045.x">World Trade Center attacks</a> in 2001 was most successful when using bones of the feet and legs, compared with bones from the head and torso.</p>
<p>DNA damage can take different forms. Nicks and breaks in the DNA make it difficult to analyze. Chemical modification of the DNA can result in changes to the original sequence or make it unreadable. This includes changes to the building blocks of DNA <a href="https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Nucleotide">called nucleotides</a> that make up an identifiable sequence. For example, exposure to water can cause a chemical reaction <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/cshperspect.a012567">called deamination</a> that changes the nucleotide cytosine such that it appears to be the nucleotide thymine upon analysis. Exposures to other chemicals or UV light can <a href="https://chem.libretexts.org/Ancillary_Materials/Exemplars_and_Case_Studies/Exemplars/Biology/Cross-Linking_in_DNA">cause cross-linking</a>, which essentially ties the DNA into knots. As a result, the PCR enzymes used to copy or read the DNA sequence can’t move linearly along the DNA strand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rows of burnt houses and cars in the aftermath of the Lahaina fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543323/original/file-20230817-33902-1dr1ti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Exposure to intense and extended fires can make victim identification through DNA analysis difficult.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFires/185896ea7dfd43b99850521649cf5be6">AP Photo/Jae C. Hong</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Applying methods from archaeology</h2>
<p>Researchers encounter similar issues in handling degraded genetic material when analyzing the DNA of ancient remains that are thousands of years old. To address these challenges, forensic geneticists and ancient DNA researchers like me employ a number of tricks to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43586-020-00011-0">optimize DNA retrieval</a>.</p>
<p>First, we tend to target dense bone or teeth for sampling, since they are more impervious to the environment. We also use DNA extraction methods that enhance the recovery of short fragments of DNA. </p>
<p>Second, we use PCR to amplify even shorter genetic markers, including mini-short tandem repeats, or sections of the <a href="https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Mitochondrial-DNA">mitochondrial genome</a>. Mitochondria are structures within each cell that produce energy, and each one has its own DNA. Mitochondrial DNA is passed down from mother to child and can be found in hundreds of copies within each mitochondrion, which make it easier to recover and analyze. However, mitochondrial DNA <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.genom.4.070802.110352">may not provide sufficient information</a> for identification, since people who are maternally related, even very distantly, will share the same sequence.</p>
<p>Researchers are also testing newer methods of DNA analysis common in the ancient DNA field for forensic purposes. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43586-020-00011-0">special enzymes</a> can remove chemically modified nucleotides, such as deaminated cytosines, to prevent misreading of the DNA sequence. Researchers can also use DNA baits to “fish” for specific sequences. This method of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.1419">targeted enrichment</a> can recover very small fragments that can be used to piece together the full genetic sequence.</p>
<h2>DNA analysis of burned remains</h2>
<p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119682691.ch12">fire victims</a>, particularly those caught in intense, extended fires, the DNA may be highly fragmented, making analysis difficult. High temperatures cause bonds between molecules, including nucleotides, to break. This results in fragmentation and ultimately destruction of the DNA.</p>
<p>Because hard tissue – bones and teeth – are often all that remains after a fire, forensic researchers have studied how bone characteristics such as color and composition <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2010.08.008">change with temperature</a>. My research team used this information to classify the level of burning that human bone samples have been subjected to.</p>
<p>In investigating DNA preservation in those samples, we found that there is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2020.102272">significant point of DNA degradation</a> when bones reached temperatures between 662 degrees Fahrenheit (350 degrees Celsius) and 1,022 F (550 C). For comparison, <a href="https://www.cremationassociation.org/page/CremationProcess">commercial cremation</a> is 1,400 to 1,600 F (760 to 871 C) for 30 to 120 minutes, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2017.08.001">vehicle fires</a> typically reach 1,652 degrees F (900 C) but can last a shorter period of time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People walking down street past the rubble of wildfire damage in Lahaina" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543318/original/file-20230817-25-qy54jc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Survivors of the Lahaina wildfires, which began on Aug. 8, 2023, walk through the aftermath.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFiresPowerLines/6643e5e332e44e8e8fedbb01c15ece9c">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our team also found that the likelihood of generating high-quality short tandem repeat data or mitochondrial DNA sequence data, whether using forensic or ancient DNA methods, decreases significantly at temperatures <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2021.102610">greater than 1,022 F</a> (550 C). </p>
<p>In sum, as temperature and exposure time increase, the amount of remaining DNA decreases. This leads to only partial DNA profiles, which can limit analysts’ ability to match a victim to a relative with high statistical certainty or prevent results altogether.</p>
<p>DNA evidence is not the only method used for identification. Investigators <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2008.09.019">combine DNA with other evidence</a> – such as dental, skeletal and contextual information – to identify a victim conclusively. Together, this information hopefully will help bring closure for families and friends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Stone receives funding from the National Institute of Justice. </span></em></p>Maui officials have asked relatives to provide DNA samples to help identify victims of the Lahaina wildfires. Time and exposure to the elements, however, can make DNA retrieval from remains difficult.Anne Stone, Professor of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113172023-08-09T19:05:18Z2023-08-09T19:05:18ZMaui’s deadly wildfires burn through Lahaina – it’s a reminder of the growing risk to communities that once seemed safe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542016/original/file-20230809-23-kf1a77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=406%2C17%2C963%2C727&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires burn in Lahaina, Hawaii, on Aug. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HawaiiFires/535d80b24ddc49089034444a114e6795/photo">Zeke Kalua/County of Maui via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildfires, pushed by powerful winds, raced through Lahaina, Hawaii, on Aug. 8 and 9, 2023, leaving a charred and smoldering landscape across the tourist town of <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/lahainacdphawaii">about 13,000 residents</a> that was once <a href="https://lahainatown.com/lahaina-history.php">the capital of the Kingdom of Hawaii</a>. <a href="https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12855">Nearly 100 people are believed to have died</a> in the fires, Maui County officials said. Others were <a href="https://twitter.com/USCGHawaiiPac/status/1689192530511081472/">rescued by the U.S. Coast Guard</a> after going into the ocean to escape the flames.</p>
<p><a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?HI">Dry grasses</a> and strong winds, <a href="https://weather.com/news/weather/video/flames-engulf-buildings-trees-in-downtown-lahaina">influenced by Hurricane Dora</a> passing far to the south, heightened the risk as wildfires burned both in Maui’s tourist-filled <a href="https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2023-08-09;@-156.3,20.9,10z">west coast and farther inland</a> and on the Big Island of Hawaii.</p>
<p>Most fires in the U.S. are suppressed before they have a chance to threaten communities, but the winds were <a href="https://www.kitv.com/video/news/us-coast-guard-jumps-in-on-maui-after-fires-ravage-lahaina/video_bc2a52c6-3f4f-56da-93d9-be80bc688413.html">too strong to send helicopters</a> into the sky to help contain Maui’s fires on the first day, leaving firefighters to battle the blazes from the ground.</p>
<p>Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke <a href="https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2307199-1.pdf#new_tab">issued an emergency declaration</a>, activating the National Guard to help, and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-wildfire-maui-dora-winds-ec23c16abfbeb6ba689f1a98263720db">urged travelers to stay away</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/an9NGB0bz0A?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Video shared by Maui Now shows the fires and strong winds.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6W_Ra22W5SQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Lines of flames move quickly through the hills in Maui the night of Aug. 8, 2023. Video by Clint Hansen.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fires have become an increasing risk in many areas of the U.S. that people once considered safe.</p>
<p>Over the past two decades, a staggering <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">21.8 million Americans</a> found themselves living within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a large wildfire. Nearly 600,000 of them were directly exposed to the fire, with their homes inside the wildfire perimeter. That number – people directly exposed to wildfires – more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, my team’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">recent research</a> shows.</p>
<p>But while commentators often blame the rising risk on homebuilders pushing <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/homes-wildfire-wildland-urban-interface-washington-oregon-california/">deeper into the wildland areas</a>, we found that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-urban-interface-is-in-areas-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410">population growth in these high-risk areas</a> explained only a small part of the increase in the number of people who were exposed to wildfires.</p>
<p>Instead, three-quarters of this trend was driven by intense fires growing out of control and encroaching on existing communities.</p>
<p>That knowledge has implications for how communities prepare to fight wildfires in the future, how they respond to population growth and whether policy changes such as increasing insurance premiums to reduce losses will be effective.</p>
<h2>What climate change has to do with wildfires</h2>
<p>Hot, dry weather pulls moisture from plants and soil, leaving dry fuel that can easily burn. On a windy day, a spark <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/pge-to-pay-55-million-for-two-massive-california-wildfires">from a power line</a>, campfire or lightning can start a wildfire that quickly spreads.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213815120">Recent research on California’s fires</a> found that almost all of the increase in that state’s burned area in recent decades was due to anthropogenic climate change – meaning climate change caused by human activities.</p>
<p>Our new research looked beyond just the area burned and asked: Where were people exposed to wildfires, and why?</p>
<h2>Where wildfire exposure was highest</h2>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientist</a> who studies the wildfire-climate relationship and its socioenvironmental impacts. Colleagues and I analyzed the boundaries of more than 15,000 large wildfires across the lower 48 states and annual population distribution data to estimate the number of people exposed to those fires.</p>
<p>If you picture wildfire photos taken from a plane, fires generally burn in patches rather than as a wall of flame. Pockets of homes within the fire boundary survive, but many also burn. </p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2728/data_animation_legend-min.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption>The 2018 fire that destroyed Paradise, Calif., began as a small vegetation fire that ignited new fires as the wind blew its embers. NIST</figcaption></figure>
<p>While the population has grown in the wildland-urban interface – the region where houses intermingle with forests, shrublands or grasslands – we found that population growth accounted for only about one-quarter of the increase in the number of humans directly exposed to wildfires across the lower 48 states from 2000 to 2019.</p>
<p>Three-quarters of the 125% increase in exposure was due to fires increasingly encroaching on existing communities. The total burned area increased only 38%, but the locations of intense fires near towns and cities put lives at risk.</p>
<p>In California, the state with the most people exposed to fires, several wildfire catastrophes hit communities that had existed long before 2000. Almost all these catastrophes occurred during <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abae9e">dry, hot, windy conditions</a> that have become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7">increasingly frequent because of climate change</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A view across the city shows a column of smoke rising ominously in the hills nearby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541997/original/file-20230809-15-6g7b6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke rises from a brush fire near Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/smoke-rises-from-a-brush-fire-near-the-hollywood-hills-in-news-photo/93050464">Hector Mata/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What communities can do to lower the risk</h2>
<p>Studies have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0">even in conservative scenarios</a>, the amount of area that burns in Western wildfires is projected to grow in the next few decades.</p>
<p>How much these fires grow and how intense they become depends largely on warming trends. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will help slow warming. But communities will also have to adapt to more wildfires. Developing community-level wildfire response plans, reducing human ignitions of wildfires and improving zoning and building codes can help prevent fires from becoming destructive.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Aug. 16, 2023, with a rising death toll. This is an update to an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">originally published July 3, 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Human exposure to wildfires in the US more than doubled in the past two decades. A climate scientist looks at who is at risk and why.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083482023-07-20T17:43:17Z2023-07-20T17:43:17ZWildfire evacuations: How our diverse experiences can strengthen disaster response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538347/original/file-20230719-21-gs1kpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=266%2C1187%2C6563%2C3655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beyond the danger to human life and economies, wildfires also present considerable danger to communities and the mental well-being of survivors. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Noah Berger)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/wildfire-evacuations-how-our-diverse-experiences-can-strengthen-disaster-response" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Wildfire affects us all. Differently. This is the central message from research about the social dimensions of climate hazards. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/cndn-dsstr-dtbs/index-en.aspx">Considerable research</a> has calculated potential land area burned, counted the dollars spent in evacuation and recovery and proposed technical and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9220164">infrastructural adaptation</a> measures to cope with longer and more intense fire seasons. </p>
<p>However, less attention has been paid to how different groups of people are affected and the intangible social losses they experience. </p>
<p>As researchers working on gender, diversity and environment, we believe that to effectively address climate hazards like wildfire, we must consider the diverse experiences of people. We must also account for longstanding “taken for granted” institutions and create processes that empower local people to plan, respond and learn from their specific experiences. </p>
<h2>The diverse experiences of wildfire</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, we have conducted multiple projects in the boreal region of western Canada to learn how residents experience and plan for wildfire. </p>
<p>While governments and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.06.008">media tend to focus on the economic losses of wildfire</a>, community residents tend to focus on losses associated with mental and emotional well-being, social exclusions and the grief they experience from changes to the places and landscapes they love. </p>
<p>Even within small communities, <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/13414">such effects vary considerably</a> according to peoples’ gender, socio-economic status, Indigenous identity, age, their social networks and other characteristics. <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/14012">And many of these characteristics intersect with one another,</a> resulting in diverse experiences of wildfire. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of people standing in front of a white board." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doig River First Nation members and staff in B.C. work with PhD candidate Michaela Sidloski of the University of Saskatchewan to consider how social impacts and considerations should be embedded into a community climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michaela Sidloski)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1824892">Our research</a>, for instance, provided examples of Indigenous women with young children worrying that their children would be taken away during evacuations if they did not “behave.” </p>
<p>In other instances, men felt pressure to stay and fight the fires to protect their assets, despite the health and safety risks. Meanwhile community members were worried about how the fires would affect their sense of belonging to a place.</p>
<p>Other studies have similarly shown that people experience wildfire differently at various intersections of, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2016.1246086">rural identity and gender</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44127063">youth or age and Indigeneity</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X16669511">affluence and physical mobility</a>. </p>
<p>These differences are influenced by the social institutions that shape our experiences, such as colonial legacies and gendered norms and expectations. </p>
<p>In the above example, the women’s experiences of anxiety were influenced by legacies of harmful assimilative practices of residential schools and the Sixties Scoop, which <a href="https://indigenousfoundations.arts.ubc.ca/sixties_scoop/">forcibly removed Indigenous children from their families</a>. This in addition to the ongoing inequalities and injustices that see <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/census-indigenous-children-care-1.6590075">Indigenous children over-represented in foster systems</a>.</p>
<p>Masculine norms and expectations to be community protectors also often influence men’s decisions to “stay and fight” during the event and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.01.002">create barriers to their willingness to access mental health assistance afterwards</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sign marking entrance to Wadin Bay" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538546/original/file-20230720-15-ojje6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tina Elliott, an MES student at the University of Saskatchewan, worked with residents of Wadin Bay, Saskatchewan’s first FireSmart community, to develop a guidebook for learning and adaptation following the major wildfires in northern Saskatchewan in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Tina Elliott)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Institutions can help or hinder</h2>
<p>Institutions we take for granted can exacerbate the secondary risks people face from wildfire events. </p>
<p>Top-down, command-and-control approaches to emergency management are often very effective in getting people out of immediate harm’s way when wildfires draw near. But evacuation triage processes that <a href="https://meridian.allenpress.com/human-organization/article-abstract/75/1/59/72446/Asking-for-a-Disaster-Being-At-Risk-in-the?redirectedFrom=fulltext">prioritize physical health risks may result in the fragmentation of extended family support networks</a>.</p>
<p>Realizing these gaps, Indigenous residents and their governments have often taken the initiative to offer culturally appropriate and timely provision of food, supplies, temporary residences and social supports for evacuees in addition to fighting the fires. </p>
<p>The “<a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/11913">Rez Cross</a>”, hosted by Beardy’s and Okemasis First Nation in Saskatchewan in 2015, is but one example. </p>
<p>While people are impacted by wildfire and evacuations in different ways, community members also have important knowledge — including information about the land, social context, cultural protocols, and local values — which is critical during and after wildfires and other extreme events. </p>
<p>In our studies, when residents spoke about the need to rebuild their communities, they meant much more than the physical bricks and mortar, calling for projects that demonstrate care for one another and learn from the past. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"618836692955475968"}"></div></p>
<p>Learning from these experiences, we are now engaging in research that supports local people from diverse situations <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/13414">to work together to share experiences and knowledge related to wildfire impacts</a> and <a href="https://www.canva.com/design/DAFG2_u28Og/9qI7fauoz2bSRPJKnK3zbQ/view?utm_content=DAFG2_u28Og&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=publishsharelink">to co-design effective local strategies</a>. </p>
<p>This is hopeful work. </p>
<h2>Working together builds resilience</h2>
<p>Addressing climate change and climate hazards requires governments, community-based organizations and even private sector entities at all levels to fund and <a href="https://research-groups.usask.ca/reed/progress-news-articles/research-update-building-a-pathway-to-climate-resilience-in-tsaa-%C3%A7h%C3%A9-ne-dane.php">support communities.</a> </p>
<p>This will help communities plan and adapt in ways that account for diversity of experience, address underlying social inequalities and draw on local strengths and knowledge. </p>
<p>An inclusive approach involves meaningful engagement processes with diverse groups of people within communities, facilitated by robust funding and social infrastructure, alongside a re-thinking of institutions or “rules in use” that are taken for granted. </p>
<p>By accounting for social dimensions in each of these contexts, we can help empower communities to leverage local innovation and strengthen their resilience in the face of climate hazards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Reed receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amber J. Fletcher receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Walker receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>To effectively address climate hazards like wildfire, we must consider the diverse experiences of people, account for longstanding institutions and create processes that empower local people.Maureen G. Reed, Distinguished Professor and UNESCO Chair in Biocultural Diversity, Sustainability, Reconciliation and Renewal, University of SaskatchewanAmber J. Fletcher, Professor, Sociology & Social Studies, University of ReginaHeidi Walker, Research Associate, Natural Resources, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2091032023-07-06T20:35:04Z2023-07-06T20:35:04ZA combination of social, organizational and technical factors caused the Titan’s implosion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535971/original/file-20230706-29-76pbqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3656%2C2424&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Edward Cassano, speaking at a news conference, led the search team that found the remains of the submersible. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Carolyn Thompson)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/a-combination-of-social-organizational-and-technical-factors-caused-the-titans-implosion" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The implosion that took the lives of five souls who made the perilous deep sea voyage to the Titanic shipwreck is not your typical disaster. But perhaps the OceanGate Titan submersible craft was <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/a-preoccupation-with-failure-why-the-titan-submersible-was-doomed-from-the-start-2">doomed from the start</a>.</p>
<p>On July 6, OceanGate announced that it <a href="https://oceangateexpeditions.com/">would be suspending all exploration and commercial operations</a>, and that their Pacific Northwest headquarters in Everett, Wash., <a href="https://www.kptv.com/2023/06/23/oceangates-pnw-offices-closed-indefinitely-after-ceo-dies-submersible/">would be closing indefinitely</a>.</p>
<p>In the wake of the disaster at sea on June 18, these actions are reflective of a company that is in the midst of a crisis of continuity as the overall future of the organization is uncertain.</p>
<p>Given the disaster, it is surprising that the advertising web pages for future Titanic excursions have not yet been taken down. Perhaps it is reflective of a rapidly evolving situation with a company in crisis. </p>
<h2>Reasons for failure</h2>
<p>Concepts explaining the Titan’s failure can be traced back to <a href="https://www.mindtherisk.com/literature/157-man-made-disasters-by-barry-a-turner">ideas developed 45 years ago</a>. Barry Turner, an organizational sociologist and safety pioneer, <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/65580">studied long-forgotten disasters</a>. Turner analyzed catastrophes like <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/case-studies/aberfan-1966-landslide-case-study/">the 1966 Aberfan disaster in Wales</a>, where 144 people were killed after waste from coal mining spilled into their village.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/history-repeats-itself-the-titan-submersible-implosion-mirrors-past-disasters-208420">History repeats itself: The Titan submersible implosion mirrors past disasters</a>
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<p>Turner suggested that the interaction of social, organizational and technical processes were key to causing disaster.</p>
<p>Advances in the study of socio-technical problems continue to inform our understanding of unusual technological disasters like submarine implosions. Both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1086026603262031">normal accident theory</a> and the concept of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5973.1996.tb00077.x">high-reliability organizations</a> help in understanding the big picture causes of the Titan submersible implosion.</p>
<h2>Normal accidents</h2>
<p>During the mid-1980s, sociologist Charles Perrow established <a href="https://www.eventsafetyalliance.org/news/2016/11/9/normal-accident-theory-explained">normal accident theory</a>. His premise was that machines, technologies and support systems were extremely complex and tightly coupled. An accident, then, could be considered an inevitable — normal — outcome.</p>
<p>Perrow analyzed situations of failure, like the <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html">1979 Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant meltdown</a>. He considered nuclear safety by looking at <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691004129/normal-accidents">some serious accidents, some trivial incidents, problems of reliability and management and the special characteristics of the nuclear power system</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="four cooling towers of a nuclear power plant in the distance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535900/original/file-20230705-25-s5ak77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Reactor Unit 2 at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant experienced a partial meltdown in 1979. The site was shut down completely in 2019, and is currently being decommissioned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(J. Rozdilsky)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perrow sought to establish a basis for understanding why accidents will happen involving high-risk systems that someone has decided we cannot live without. Harms from a nuclear meltdown can impact society as whole. But it is complicated considering the demands for divestment from fossil fuels. Arguments can be made from both sides as to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34114392">whether society can live with nuclear energy or not</a>.</p>
<p>However, in the case of the Titan submersible, a small group of people decided that the rewards outweighed the risks for getting a close-up view of the shipwreck. Accidents due to manned exploration of a treacherous 111-year-old shipwreck site, while tragic, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/titanic-tragedy-the-failure-of-oceangate-submersible-titan/">are limited to direct participants</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/titanic-submersible-catastrophic-implosion-questions-remain-about-the-costs-and-ethics-of-rescuing-tourist-expeditions-208163">Titanic submersible 'catastrophic implosion': questions remain about the costs and ethics of rescuing tourist expeditions</a>
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<h2>High-reliability organizations</h2>
<p>In the 1990s, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/477404a">debate ensued over causes of technological disasters</a>. Dangers of normal accidents were balanced against the safety culture of high-reliability organizations.</p>
<p>In his 1993 book, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691021010/the-limits-of-safety"><em>The Limits of Safety</em></a>, political scientist Scott Sagan asked: Are normal accidents inevitable? Or can the combination of interactive complexity and tight coupling be safely managed?</p>
<p>In supporting the safe management of complex technologies, high-reliability organizations emerged. They have a track record of decades of safety with risky technologies. Notwithstanding rare exceptions resulting in disasters like <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/chernobyl-bg.html">Chernobyl</a> or <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/japan-events.html">Fukushima</a>, nuclear power plant operators are high-reliability organizations. </p>
<p>A nuclear navy is also a high-reliability organization. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639502100403">Studies of a nuclear submarine’s organizational culture</a> suggested specific social-technical interactions occur. Higher levels of knowledge along with technical experience are necessary. The result of the interaction is to transform a high-risk system into a high reliability system.</p>
<h2>Acknowledging complexity</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/nbk/nbk542883">characteristic of high-reliability organizations</a> is the reluctance to simplify anything. They accept that the tasks at hand are complex, with a real potential to fail in new unexpected ways.</p>
<p>Photographs of the interior of the ill-fated Titan submersible show bare walls with no resemblance to a stereotypical cockpit with its bells and whistles. Photographs of the interior of James Cameron’s Titanic exploration submersible, the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/how-james-cameron-submersible-compares-oceangate-titan-1808594">Deep Sea Challenger</a>, appear to resemble a more complicated cockpit with controllers and gauges on the walls.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1671980973754294285"}"></div></p>
<p>OceanGate admitted to using several pieces of off-the-shelf technology that streamlined construction and made the submersible simple to operate. For example, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/titanic-submarine-missing-video-game-xbox-controller-is-that-normal/">modified video game controllers were used for controlling the Titan</a> submersible.</p>
<p>OceanGate acted to simplify an otherwise complex endeavour, and appear to not have behaved as a high-reliability organization.</p>
<h2>A wake-up call</h2>
<p>The implosion of the Titan is a wake-up call for exploration or tourism companies who plan to continue to send people to inhospitable environments like the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/titanic-sub-search-catastrophic-implosion-rcna90744">extreme conditions present 12,500 feet below the ocean’s surface</a>. If not doing so at present, these companies should mimic the organizational culture of high-reliability organizations.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-was-the-catastrophic-implosion-of-the-titan-submersible-an-expert-explains-208359">What was the 'catastrophic implosion' of the Titan submersible? An expert explains</a>
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<p>While eliminating the risk of death is not possible with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/bobs-blog-titan-submersible-mars-1.6886336">extreme travel to outer space or the deep sea bottom</a>, the main goal of companies undertaking such excursions should be to attempt to reduce the loss of life to the maximum achievable extent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack L. Rozdilsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Complex endeavours require complex risk management, and high-reliability organizations recognize this. OceanGate did not plan for the complexity of its operations, with tragic consequences.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079032023-07-03T15:11:12Z2023-07-03T15:11:12ZHuman exposure to wildfires has more than doubled in two decades – who is at risk might surprise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535783/original/file-20230705-17-uqgch7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C3493%2C2276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises from a brush fire near Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles in 2007</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/smoke-rises-from-a-brush-fire-near-the-hollywood-hills-in-news-photo/93050464">Hector Mata/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two decades, a staggering <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">21.8 million Americans</a> found themselves living within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a large wildfire. Most of those residents would have had to evacuate, and many would have been exposed to smoke and emotional trauma from the fire.</p>
<p>Nearly 600,000 of them were directly exposed to the fire, with their homes inside the wildfire perimeter. </p>
<p>Those statistics reflect how the number of people directly exposed to wildfires more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, my team’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">new research</a> shows. </p>
<p>But while commentators often blame the rising risk on homebuilders pushing <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/homes-wildfire-wildland-urban-interface-washington-oregon-california/">deeper into the wildland areas</a>, we found that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-urban-interface-is-in-areas-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410">population growth in these high-risk areas</a> explained only a small part of the increase in the number of people who were exposed to wildfires.</p>
<p>Instead, three-quarters of this trend was driven by intense fires growing out of control and encroaching on existing communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a community of small, closely built houses, with half the homes in the photo burned." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=597%2C528%2C5718%2C3809&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire in 2017 destroyed more than 3,000 homes in Santa Rosa, Calif., a city of over 180,000 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/some-houses-burned-and-some-did-not-aerial-view-of-the-news-photo/860304634">Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That knowledge has implications for how communities prepare to fight wildfires in the future, how they respond to population growth and whether policy changes such as increasing insurance premiums to reduce losses will be effective. It’s also a reminder of what’s at risk from human activities, such as fireworks on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">July 4, a day when wildfire ignitions spike</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two charts show wildfire counts by day of the year over 20 years. July 4 stands out as a clear spike, both looking at fires US-wide and just in the US West." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mojtaba Sadegh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where wildfire exposure was highest</h2>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientist</a> who studies the wildfire-climate relationship and its socioenvironmental impacts. For the new study, colleagues and I analyzed the annual boundaries of more than 15,000 large wildfires across the Lower 48 states and annual population distribution data to estimate the number of people exposed to those fires.</p>
<p>Not every home within a wildfire boundary burns. If you picture wildfire photos taken from a plane, fires generally burn in patches rather than as a wall of flame, and pockets of homes survive.</p>
<p>We found that 80% of the human exposure to wildfires – involving people living within a wildfire boundary from 2000 to 2019 – was in Western states. </p>
<p>California stood out in our analysis. More than 70% of Americans directly exposed to wildfires were in California, but only 15% of the area burned was there. </p>
<p><iframe id="K1mPs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K1mPs/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What climate change has to do with wildfires</h2>
<p>Hot, dry weather pulls moisture from plants and soil, leaving dry fuel that can easily burn. On a windy day – <a href="https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climate/narrative_ca.php">such as California often sees</a> during its hottest, driest months – a spark, for example <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/pge-to-pay-55-million-for-two-massive-california-wildfires">from a power line</a>, campfire or lightning, can start a wildfire that quickly spreads.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213815120">Recent research</a> published in June 2023 shows that almost all of the increase in California’s burned area in recent decades has been due to anthropogenic climate change – meaning climate change caused by humans.</p>
<p>Our new research looked beyond just the area burned and asked: Where were people exposed to wildfires, and why?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A landscape view across a neighborhood with gold courses, lakes and hills in the background. In the foreground is burned cul de sac that appears to be at the edge of the city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New homes on the edges of cities have been caught in some fires, like the one in Santa Rosa in 2017. But most of the people exposed were in neighborhoods existing well before 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-aftermath-of-a-firestorm-that-began-in-napa-valleys-news-photo/874477844">George Rose/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>We found that while the population has grown in the wildland-urban interface, where houses intermingle with forests, shrublands or grasslands, that accounted for only about one-quarter of the increase in the number of humans directly exposed to wildfires across the Lower 48 states from 2000 to 2019.</p>
<p>Three-quarters of that 125% increase in exposure was due to fires’ increasingly encroaching on existing communities. The total burned area increased only 38%, but the locations of intense fires near towns and cities put lives at risk.</p>
<p>In California, which was in drought during much of that period, several wildfire catastrophes hit communities that had existed long before 2000. Almost all these catastrophes occurred during <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abae9e">dry, hot, windy conditions</a> that have become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7">increasingly frequent because of climate change</a>.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2728/data_animation_legend-min.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption>The 2018 fire that destroyed Paradise, Calif., began as a small vegetation fire that ignited new fires as the wind blew its embers. NIST</figcaption></figure>
<p>Wildfires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">in the high mountains</a> in recent decades provide another way to look at the role that rising temperatures play in increasing fire activity.</p>
<p>High mountain forests have few cars, homes and power lines that could spark fires, and humans have historically done little to clear brush there or fight fires that could interfere with natural fire regimes. These regions were long considered too wet and cool to regularly burn. Yet my team’s past research showed <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-fires-are-burning-higher-in-the-mountains-at-unprecedented-rates-its-a-clear-sign-of-climate-change-159699">fires have been burning</a> there at unprecedented rates in recent years, mainly because of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">warming and drying trends in the Western U.S.</a></p>
<h2>What can communities do to lower the risk?</h2>
<p>Wildfire risk isn’t slowing. Studies have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0">even in conservative scenarios</a>, the amount of area that burns in Western wildfires is projected to grow in the next few decades.</p>
<p>How much these fires grow and how intense they become depends largely on warming trends. Reducing emissions will help slow warming, but the risk is already high. Communities will have to both adapt to more wildfires and take steps to mitigate their impacts.</p>
<p>Developing community-level wildfire response plans, reducing human ignitions of wildfires and improving zoning and building codes can help prevent fires from becoming destructive. Building wildfire shelters in remote communities and ensuring resources are available to the most vulnerable people are also necessary to lessen the adverse societal impacts of wildfires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Nearly 22 million people lived within 3 miles of a US wildfire in the past two decades. A new study tracking their locations flips the script on who is at risk.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084422023-06-27T17:32:40Z2023-06-27T17:32:40ZOn the 10th anniversary of the Lac-Mégantic rail disaster, what’s changed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534156/original/file-20230626-23-bg2d5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4488%2C2664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises from destroyed railway cars that were carrying crude oil after derailing in downtown Lac-Mégantic, Que., the day after the derailment and explosion killed 47 people. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/on-the-10th-anniversary-of-the-lac-megantic-rail-disaster-whats-changed" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On July 6, 2013, <a href="https://macleans.ca/news/canada/runaway-disaster-3/">a runaway train carrying 72 tank cars loaded with volatile Bakken shale oil derailed and exploded in Lac-Mégantic</a>, a small town in southeastern Québec. It killed 47 people, orphaned 26 children, spilled a record six million litres of oil and incinerated the town centre.</p>
<p>It was the worst rail disaster in more than a century — a catastrophe described by the editor of the local weekly newspaper as “<a href="https://echodefrontenac.com/2013-07-08/2419-la-ville-des-ames-en-peine">a chain of explosions and the sound of whistling gas escaping from everywhere: the vomiting bowels of hell</a>.” </p>
<p>In my book <a href="https://lorimer.ca/adults/?s=lac-M%C3%A9gantic&post_type=product"><em>The Lac-Mégantic Rail Disaster: Public Betrayal, Justice Denied</em>,</a> I detail how the tragedy was the consequence of four decades of mutually reinforcing policies — deregulation, privatization, tax cuts and austerity — that eroded transportation safety protections. They entrenched the power of railway corporations in concert with government enablers and regulators — a phenomenon known as “regulatory capture.”</p>
<p>Austerity produced a vicious cycle where gutted regulatory resources increased pressure to devolve responsibility to private companies. Euphemistically called co-regulation or partnership, it was, in effect, self-regulation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-major-canadian-railways-must-no-longer-be-permitted-to-police-themselves-190417">Why major Canadian railways must no longer be permitted to police themselves</a>
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<h2>Oil by rail</h2>
<p>In the years leading up to the disaster, <a href="https://www.timescolonist.com/bc-news/municipalities-work-to-prevent-disasters-as-rail-transport-of-oil-soars-4608836">the volume of oil transported by rail in Canada soared from 500 tank cars in 2009 to 160,000 in 2013</a>. Resources within regulatory agencies were woefully inadequate to deal with the mounting danger. </p>
<p>In 2009, there was the equivalent of 14 tank carloads of crude oil per inspector working under the federal government’s <a href="https://tc.canada.ca/en/dangerous-goods/transportation-dangerous-goods-canada">Transportation of Dangerous Goods Program</a>. By 2013, that ratio had increased to about 4,500 carloads per inspector.</p>
<p>The railway lobby, along with its petroleum allies, successfully argued that additional safety regulations to address the danger were not necessary. They also secured a change in the rules to allow trains carrying dangerous goods <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/04/04/lacmgantic_disaster_railways_oneman_crew_documents_kept_secret.html">to operate with a single crew member</a> despite much opposition, including from within Transport Canada. </p>
<p>Huge volumes of volatile oil were being hauled through Lac-Mégantic by <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/mma-workers-feared-a-catastrophe-document-shows">Montreal Maine & Atlantic,</a> known as MMA — a company with a downsized workforce, shoddy locomotives, a poor safety record and operating on a poorly maintained track. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in an orange hazard vest looks at the engine of a red white and blue train that says MMA on its side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534150/original/file-20230626-17-ikb269.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An engineer checks the engine of a Montreal Maine & Atlantic locomotive outside the offices of MMA railway in the town of Farnham, Que., on July 11, 2013, a few days after the disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first to move cargo under the single-operator rule, <a href="https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/news/2016/7/27/dot-111-railcars-banned-from-transporting-crude-in-canada-by-the-fall">MMA’s DOT-111 tank cars were originally designed for carrying corn oil</a>. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/danger-tracks-unsafe-rail-cars-carry-oil-through-us-towns-flna8c11082948">Safety boards in both Canada and the United States had warned against</a> railways carrying dangerous goods in these tank cars for years.</p>
<p>It was a perfect storm of regulatory failure and corporate negligence; an accident waiting to happen.</p>
<h2>Who’s been held accountable?</h2>
<p>Three front-line workers were <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/lac-megantic-criminal-negligence-verdict-1.4474848">criminally charged and acquitted </a> in the Lac-Mégantic disaster. </p>
<p>No senior official, politician, corporate executive, director or owner has been held to account for their role and responsibility for the tragedy. Successive governments have refused demands by the community to establish an <a href="https://doi.org/10.7202/1047375ar">independent commission of inquiry.</a> </p>
<p>Civil suits, including a class-action lawsuit filed on behalf of town residents, resulted in a 2015 plea deal with 24 defendants, including the federal government, contributing to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/lac-m%C3%A9gantic-settlement-fund-payment-contested-1.3530578">$460 million settlement fund</a> protecting them from further charges. </p>
<p>A lone defendant, Canadian Pacific Railway — the company contracted to transport the cargo from North Dakota to the Irving refinery in Saint John, N.B. — refused to settle.</p>
<p>After repeated delays, Québec Superior Court ruled in December 2022 that <a href="https://theconversation.com/rail-accidents-public-safety-and-accountability-suffer-because-of-deregulation-200506">CP could not be held liable for damages </a> suffered by the Lac-Mégantic victims — another setback in the fight for justice. The plaintiffs have appealed the court ruling.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three men in handcuffs walk in single file." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534158/original/file-20230626-5418-1g6k4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three former Montreal Maine & Atlantic Railway Ltd. employees are escorted by police to appear in court in Lac-Mégantic, Que., in May 2014. All three were later acquitted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disaster aftershocks</h2>
<p>The Lac-Mégantic community has been plagued by a legacy of economic, health and environmental aftershocks following the disaster.</p>
<p>Trains carrying dangerous goods continue to rumble through the town, whistles shrieking day and night. These longer, heavier trains still descend the steep slope and around the sharp curve where the fateful train derailed. They still carry dangerous goods in the original, or slightly upgraded, DOT-111 tank cars — the same kind that derailed and spilled that tragic night. </p>
<p>Trains with multiple tank cars containing only oil no longer run through the town, at least for now. The fear of another derailment continues to keep residents on edge.</p>
<p>Construction of a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9498859/quebec-town-votes-against-lac-megantic-rail-bypass-project-as-expropriations-loom/">long-promised bypass</a> around the town still hasn’t begun. The bypass was supposed to be a step toward healing Lac-Mégantic, but the <a href="https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2023-01-07/le-projet-de-voie-de-contournement-de-lac-megantic-divise.php">chosen route has sharply divided the community</a>. </p>
<p>Opposition to this route — preferred by Canadian Pacific, which will own the government-financed bypass upon completion — means further delay. Those whose lands will be appropriated are seen as the latest victims of the disaster. Completion of the bypass is years away.</p>
<p>In the meantime, another Lac-Mégantic-type disaster is still possible. Regulatory agency resources are still woefully inadequate to undertake effective safety oversight and enforcement.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Firefighters stand looking at clouds of black smoke and the back of a rail car in the middle of the road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3058%2C2227&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534149/original/file-20230626-15-uvd4rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke rises from railway cars that were carrying crude oil after derailing in downtown Lac-Mégantic, Que., on July 6, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ongoing safety issues</h2>
<p>Transport Canada’s <a href="https://unioncte.ca/transportation-safety-management-systems-still-not-right/">safety management systems</a> have continuously been on the Transportation Safety Board’s (TSB) watchlist created to highlight “those issues posing the greatest risk to Canada’s transportation system.” </p>
<p>In its most recent <a href="https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/surveillance-watchlist/multi-modal/2018/multimodal-01.html">2022 watchlist</a>, the board noted that safety management systems are “still not effectively identifying hazards and mitigating risks in rail transportation.”</p>
<p>What’s more, the federal government is failing to lift the veil on corporate activities protected by commercial confidentiality. When compared to legislation internationally, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/09/28/canada-places-55th-in-global-freedom-of-information-law-rankings.html">Canada’s access-to-information laws</a> and <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/canada-whistleblower-law-international-rankings_ca_603ee517c5b6ff75ac4011c2">whistleblower protections</a> rank poorly.</p>
<p>The TSB’s 2022 watchlist concluded that <a href="http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/surveillance-watchlist/rail/2022/rail-02.html">unplanned or uncontrolled movement of rail equipment</a>, which include runaway trains, continue to “create high-risk situations that may have catastrophic consequences.”</p>
<p>Yet Transport Canada still hasn’t mandated <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/03/08/railroad-industry-ecp-brakes-safety-derailment-ntsb-fra-east-palestine-ohio/">modern braking systems on trains</a>, a move that could have prevented Lac-Mégantic and other runaway trains. Railways are unwilling to incur the extra costs involved.</p>
<p>Companies continue to resist installing effective work-rest practices for workers in accordance with sound science and the government’s promise to implement regulations have still not occurred. <a href="https://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/surveillance-watchlist/index.html">Fatigue remains on the TSB watchlist as posing a safety risk to operations.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man walks along train tracks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534159/original/file-20230626-15-5zixv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man walks down the tracks in downtown Lac-Mégantic, Que., in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Window still open’</h2>
<p>A 2020 report on the transportation of dangerous goods by the <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202010_01_e_43641.html">Environmental Commissioner in the Auditor General’s Office</a> warned:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The window for a recurrence of a Lac-Mégantic-type disaster is still open.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lac-Mégantic haunts rail transportation in North America.</p>
<p>If we are to minimize the risk of future disasters, <a href="https://lorimer.ca/adults/product/corporate-rules-the-real-world-of-business-regulation-in-canada/">stronger regulations</a> must be put in place. </p>
<p>While odds of transcending the power status quo are formidable, to paraphrase <a href="https://www.centreforoptimism.com/pessimism-of-the-intellect-optimism-of-the-will">Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci</a>, giving up the fight is not an option.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Campbell is affiliated with several non-governmental organizations: the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the Rideau Institute for International Affairs, the Group of 78</span></em></p>Lac-Mégantic haunts rail transportation in North America. Here’s a look at how little has changed when it comes to rail safety since the disaster in rural Québec10 years ago.Bruce Campbell, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2084202023-06-26T22:27:46Z2023-06-26T22:27:46ZHistory repeats itself: The Titan submersible implosion mirrors past disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533871/original/file-20230625-98671-pae5gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=178%2C178%2C4740%2C3191&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Coast Guard said it is leading an investigation into the loss of the Titan submersible to determine what caused it to implode.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Steven Senne)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The search for OceanGate’s lost Titan submersible captivated the world last week. Following the news that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/search-intensifies-titanic-sub-with-only-hours-oxygen-left-2023-06-22">the sub had imploded on June 18 while descending to see the wreck of the Titanic</a>, focus has now shifted to how the event happened.</p>
<p>Like many, I was saddened by the loss of the five people on board Titan. It was terrible news and a terrible loss. But it’s a loss we now know was preventable. As someone who has spent their career studying shipwrecks, crew and passenger safety should always come first.</p>
<p>Stockton Rush, the CEO of OceanGate Expeditions who oversaw the design and construction of Titan, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65998914">dismissed safety warnings about the sub as “baseless</a>.” According to film director and deep-sea explorer James Cameron, members of the deep-diving community <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9788737/titan-sub-flawed-titanic-director-james-cameron/">had long warned OceanGate about flaws in the Titan’s design</a>. </p>
<p>The Titan disaster is reminiscent of a historic naval tragedy — the very same one the sub was heading towards during its ill-fated dive. </p>
<h2>Tunnel vision</h2>
<p>Like Edward Smith, the captain of Titanic, Rush also went down with his ship. And, as Cameron noted, both disasters could have been prevented if only each captain had heeded the warnings they received beforehand. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/history-and-civilisation/2022/04/despite-the-warning-iceberg-right-ahead-the-titanic-was-doomed">Smith disregarded telegrams from other ships</a> earlier in the day warning about icebergs ahead. Instead of slowing his ship, he ordered full steam ahead, ultimately causing the loss of more than 1,500 lives. </p>
<p>In Rush’s case, he <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/06/20/missing-titan-submersible-safety">disregarded his company’s director of marine operations</a> who pointed out serious flaws in the Titan’s construction. Rush’s response was to fire him. </p>
<p>Rush also disregarded industry experts and the members of the deep sea diving community, saying their safety regulations were <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/oceangate-warned-2018-david-lochridge-1.6883432">too strict and stifled innovation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A middle-aged white man sits smiling inside of a the cylindrical body of a submersible." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533864/original/file-20230625-154331-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OceanGate Expeditions CEO Stockton Rush was piloting the Titan submersible when it imploded near the wreckage of the Titanic, killing all five people on board, the U.S. Coast Guard announced on June 22, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Arnie Weissmann/Travel Weekly via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Titan disaster is also akin to a second historical disaster, the loss of British explorer Robert Falcon Scott. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-led-to-antarctic-explorer-captain-scotts-death-178810">Scott died a month before the Titanic sank</a> trying to be the first person to reach the South Pole. Like Scott, Rush’s expedition was ill-equipped and poorly managed, and he failed to listen to more experienced explorers.</p>
<h2>The Titan’s fatal flaw</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A teardrop-shaped submersible is seen underwater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533863/original/file-20230625-153905-54axia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OceanGate’s Titan submersible seen on a dive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(OceanGate Expeditions via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Titan wasn’t designed like other deep sea submersibles. Most subs consist of a titanium sphere in which the crew sits. The sphere’s shape evenly distributes the ambient pressure applied to it as the submersible dives.</p>
<p>Size and shape matter underwater. The more people inside, the bigger the sphere needs to be. Most submersibles can house up to three people: a pilot and two passengers. The Russian submersibles, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/three-other-subs-visiting-titanic-almost-suffered-the-same-fate-as-titan-1.6887824">Mir I and Mir II</a>, that Cameron used to make the movie <em>Titanic</em>, were of this type.</p>
<p>Rush figured he could build a five-person submersible by cutting a sphere in half and connecting both halves with a tube. Instead of using titanium, <a href="https://www.insider.com/oceangate-ceo-said-titan-made-old-material-bought-boeing-report-2023-6">he used thin layers of carbon fibre</a> sandwiched together — like a surfboard, only stronger. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-was-the-catastrophic-implosion-of-the-titan-submersible-an-expert-explains-208359">What was the 'catastrophic implosion' of the Titan submersible? An expert explains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition to making the submersible bigger inside, carbon fibre also made the submersible lighter. If Rush had used steel, the submersible would have been too heavy.</p>
<p>The pressure hull of a submersible contracts when it dives and expands on its return to the surface. Titanium withstands this process much better than carbon fibre, especially after many dives. </p>
<p>Because Rush <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-expert-explains-what-safety-features-a-submersible-should-have-208187">had never strength-tested the submersible’s pressure hull</a>, he had no way of knowing how its carbon fibre walls would hold up. The walls were able to withstand the two previous dives to the wreck of Titanic. They did not survive the third.</p>
<h2>Investigations into the disaster</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Titanic/Aftermath-and-investigation">As with the Titanic</a>, there are now <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9791296/tsb-investigation-polar-prince-return">ongoing investigations into the Titan sub disaster</a>. Both the U.S. Coast Guard and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada have announced their own investigations.</p>
<p>Rush wasn’t the only participant in this disaster. While not necessarily culpable for the disaster, anyone else involved will be able to provide authorities with information to help them understand the sequence of events that led up to the implosion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in construction uniforms and hard hats stand on the bow of a large ship. The name POLAR PRINCE is written on the side of the ship." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533866/original/file-20230625-61110-c4qk77.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crew members of the Polar Prince prepare to dock the ship as it arrives at the Coast Guard wharf on June 24, 2023 in St. John’s, N.L.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the Titan submersible was owned and operated by an American company, the ship that took the submersible out to the Titanic wreck site was Canadian. The Polar Prince will be able to provide investigators with vital information. </p>
<p>The Government of Canada will likely work closely with the United States, as it did in 1995 when negotiations began between the two countries to safeguard Titanic by introducing laws to prevent the wreck site from being looted. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/gc-international-section/rms-titanic-international-agreement">formalized agreement</a>, which includes the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and France came into effect in 2019.</p>
<h2>Preventing future disasters</h2>
<p>Recommendations about how to avoid future disasters are forthcoming. Some have already been offered up. Charles Haas, the president of the Titanic Historical Society, <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2023/06/23/titanic-society-calls-for-titan-inquiry-to-examine-vessels-design-and-safety-systems/">said the wreck of the Titanic should now be declared off-limits</a> to tourist submersibles.</p>
<p>While I understand and concur with his view, the issue isn’t so much about who dives to the Titanic, but how they get there. Diving should not happen unless crew and passenger safety is paramount. </p>
<p>While Rush was focused on his submersible’s flawed design, he overlooked the biggest rule of all: Keep your crew safe. In his blind quest for innovation, he failed to prioritize the safety of himself and his passengers.</p>
<p><a href="https://formac.ca/product/titanic-lives">As I wrote more than a decade ago</a>, “the public’s lust for all things Titanic isn’t likely to die down any time soon.” The <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/titanic-submarine-lost-oceangate-expeditions">Titanic tourism industry is a lucrative business</a>. But the bottom line remains: If anyone is to dive to the wreck they need to do so safely. No one’s life is worth the risk.</p>
<p>The way forward is more oversight. At present, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9788471/titan-sub-implosion-deep-sea-regulations/">regulating deep-sea exploration in international waters</a> is challenging. But there is a possibility for governing bodies like the United Nations International Maritime Organization to take action to prevent future disasters like this from occurring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208420/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Rondeau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Titan submersible implosion shares similarities with two other historic disasters: the Titanic and the Terra Nova Expedition to the South Pole.Rob Rondeau, PhD Student and Marine Archaeologist, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081632023-06-21T22:51:54Z2023-06-21T22:51:54ZTitanic submersible ‘catastrophic implosion’: questions remain about the costs and ethics of rescuing tourist expeditions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533315/original/file-20230621-23-8fpk5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C244%2C5607%2C3786&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The vessel Polar Prince towing OceanGate Expeditions submersible vessels from St. John's, N.L., as it leaves to tour the Titanic wreck site on May 29, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Coast Guard announced Thursday <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/21/titanic-sub-timeline-titan-submersible-missing-vessel">that debris found on the seafloor</a> was identified as belonging to the Titan, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-missing-titanic-tourist-sub-explained/">the OceanGate submersible that had disappeared on June 18</a>. Teams from different countries — including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany — were conducting search missions under a very tight timeline. </p>
<p>The discovery, close to the site of the Titanic, indicates the end of search-and-rescue operations for the five people onboard, who were killed in a ‘<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/us/submersible-titanic-oceangate-search-thursday/index.html">catastrophic implosion</a>,’ according to the Coast Guard.</p>
<p>As one of the largest international marine search-and-rescue operations, the incident raised questions about risk management, search-and-rescue operations, costs and ethical aspects of responses.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1671950254281818113"}"></div></p>
<h2>Ocean incidents</h2>
<p>A significant number of economic activities — including shipping, fishing and offshore oil and gas drilling — are conducted in marine environments. These activities can lead to occurrences of accidents and casualties of different types. </p>
<p>Annually, a large number of incidents happen in the Canadian marine environment. Between 2011 and 2020, <a href="https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/marine/2021/ssem-ssmo-2021.html">284 occurrences were reported each year</a> that had an annual average of 15.6 fatalities during the same period. </p>
<p>These numbers suggest that relative to the huge number of marine activities and the number of incidents, conventional marine-based operations are relatively safe and the emergency responses to them are effective. </p>
<h2>An unusual situation</h2>
<p>The search-and-rescue operations <a href="https://oceangate.com/our-subs/titan-submersible.html">for the Titan</a> have been proven to be unusual, as measured by the complexity, costs, time sensitivity and scale. Unlike search-and-rescue operations on the ground that can be undertaken by volunteers and with little or no equipment, marine search and rescue is a <a href="https://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/publications/search-rescue-recherche-sauvetage/sar-canada-res-eng.html">highly specialized operation</a>. </p>
<p>It requires high-tech equipment, tools, training, co-ordination and capacity. In the current case, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/missing-titanic-submersible-live-updates-rcna90315">the search area was not measured in square kilometres or miles</a> — rather, it was in cubic measurements (3D), because the vessel could have been anywhere around the surface, in shallow or deep waters, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/20/us/titanic-missing-submarine">or on the ocean floor</a>.</p>
<p>While there are capable teams with the needed equipment and training for most marine disasters, they are not sufficient to cover a large area with limited information or uncertainty about the situation. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/Ctup4lQs5SP","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Operational outcomes</h2>
<p>This search operation was among the costliest in recent history. We need to wait to see how much of this cost will be covered by insurance, OceanGate or the public. </p>
<p>This event will generate significant discussions around the public burden of private risks and risk-taking behaviours, and how risks in certain areas are regulated. And it could count for about one-third of Canada’s annual average marine fatalities if it’s considered a Canadian incident.</p>
<p>Particularly, it will bring to the forefront questions about <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/extreme-travel-rescue-operations-are-expensive-and-who-pays-is-unclear/">balancing acceptable risks with available emergency response capacities</a>, including search-and-rescue. </p>
<h2>Risk assessments</h2>
<p>When embarking on risky operations, such as deep-sea touristic exploration, two elements need to be added to risk assessments: 1) Do we have adequate and timely internal and external capacity to handle a potential incident?; and 2) What are the total response costs of an incident? </p>
<p>While certain risky activities or operations may be acceptable based on a private assessment of risk, they may not be acceptable if we ponder these two aspects.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A small submersible is seen underwater." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533316/original/file-20230621-27-kan0vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">OceanGate’s Titan submersible dives underwater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(OceanGate Expeditions via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, many conventional risk assessments, particularly in the private sector organizations, do not pay sufficient attention to available emergency response capacities. </p>
<p>When considering <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/business/titan-submersible-here-s-a-timeline-of-how-rescue-mission-is-unfolding-in-the-atlantic-ocean-news-296702">the Titan’s search-and-rescue operation</a>, it became clear this small emergency surpassed the capacity of the resources that were operating in the area.</p>
<p>Teams from other places and countries joined the effort, but it took several days for a unified command centre for search-and-rescue to take shape.</p>
<p>Conducting a survey of available emergency response capacities to risk assessments can make a significant difference in risk management and regulation.</p>
<p>Similarly, many current risk assessments do not fully include emergency response costs in their calculations. While it is not a major consideration for many regular daily activities and operations because the emergency response is within regular possibilities, certain operations — particularly on remote marine environments — ought to add these costs into their risk assessment. </p>
<p>In doing so, risks may become more or less acceptable in terms of mitigation policies and regulations. Incorporating these aspects into risk assessments and regulations could help ensure that private operators provide additional safety and risk mitigation measures and assume responsibility for incurred costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A team of rescuers has located debris from the Titan, indicating the end of search-and-rescue efforts. Risky undertakings need to assess the cost and capacity of any potential rescue needs.Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081392023-06-21T02:01:49Z2023-06-21T02:01:49Z‘Psychological debriefing’ right after an accident or trauma can do more harm than good – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532949/original/file-20230620-27-6ltoty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C60%2C5665%2C3733&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-glum-girl-during-psychotherapy-session-247411363">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-18/hunter-valley-wedding-bus-crash-survivors-remain-in-hospital/102487630">tragic bus accident</a> in the New South Wales Hunter Valley has again raised the issue of how we address the potential psychological effects of traumatic events. </p>
<p>It is interesting we revisit the same debate after each disaster, and few lessons have apparently been learned after decades of research. After the Hunter Valley accident, immediate psychological counselling was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/15/hunter-valley-bus-crash-company-issued-with-defect-notices-after-police-raid">offered to those affected</a>. </p>
<p>While we can’t say what form of counselling was offered, the traditional approach is known as “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1118833/">psychological debriefing</a>”. This typically involves counsellors providing trauma survivors with a single counselling intervention within days of the event. </p>
<p>Although the content of the intervention can vary, it usually involves education about stress reactions, encouragement to disclose their memories of the experience, some basic stress-coping strategies and possibly referral information. </p>
<p>But the evidence shows this approach, however well-meaning, may not help – or worse, do harm.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/experiencing-trauma-can-change-some-peoples-outlook-on-life-sometimes-for-the-better-199088">Experiencing trauma can change some people's outlook on life – sometimes for the better</a>
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<h2>The belief that feelings must be shared</h2>
<p>The encouragement of people to discuss their emotional reactions to a trauma is the result of a long-held notion in psychology (dating back to the classic writings of Sigmund Freud) that disclosure of one’s emotions is invariably beneficial for one’s mental health. </p>
<p>Emanating from this perspective, the impetus for psychological debriefing has traditionally been rooted in the notion trauma survivors are vulnerable to psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), if they do not “talk through their trauma” by receiving this very <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1529100610387086">early intervention</a>.</p>
<p>The scenario of trauma counsellors appearing in the acute aftermath of traumatic events has been commonplace for decades in Australia and elsewhere. </p>
<p>Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York City in 2001, up to 9,000 counsellors were mobilised and more than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/22/nyregion/finding-cure-for-hearts-broken-sept-11-is-as-difficult-as-explaining-the-cost.html">US$200 million</a> was projected to meet a surge in mental health needs. But fewer people than expected sought help under this program and $90 million remained <a href="https://theconversation.com/9-11-anniversary-a-watershed-for-psychological-response-to-disasters-2975">unspent</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/9-11-anniversary-a-watershed-for-psychological-response-to-disasters-2975">9/11 anniversary: a watershed for psychological response to disasters</a>
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<h2>What do we know about psychological reactions to disasters?</h2>
<p>The overwhelming evidence indicates the majority of people will <a href="http://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/journals/pspi/weighing-the-costs-of-disaster.html">adapt</a> to traumatic events without any psychological intervention.</p>
<p>Long-term studies indicate approximately 75% of trauma survivors will not experience any long-term distress. Others will experience short-term distress and subsequently adapt. A minority (usually about 10%) will <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1529100610387086">experience chronic psychological problems</a>. </p>
<p>This last group are the ones who require care and attention to reduce their mental health problems. Experts now agree other trauma survivors can rely on their own <a href="https://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/mental-health/problems-disorders/coping-after-a-traumatic-event">coping resources and social networks</a> to adapt to their traumatic experience.</p>
<p>The finding across many studies that most people adapt to traumatic experiences <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1529100610387086">without formal mental health interventions</a> has been a major impetus for questioning the value of psychological debriefing in the immediate aftermath of disasters. </p>
<p>In short, the evidence tells us universal interventions – such as psychological debriefing for everyone involved in a disaster – that attempt to prevent PTSD and other psychological disorders in trauma survivors are not indicated. These attempts <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1529100610387086#bibr448-1529100610387086">do not prevent</a> the disorder they are targeting. </p>
<h2>Not a new conclusion</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the World Health Organization listed a warning (which <a href="https://www.who.int/teams/mental-health-and-substance-use/treatment-care/mental-health-gap-action-programme/evidence-centre/other-significant-emotional-and-medical-unexplained-somatic-complaints/psychological-debriefing-in-people-exposed-to-a-recent-traumatic-event">still stands</a>) that people should not be given single-session psychological debriefing because it is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1529100610387086#bibr448-1529100610387086">not supported</a> by evidence.</p>
<p>Worse than merely being ineffective, debriefing can be <a href="https://www.jenonline.org/article/S0099-1767(19)30453-2/fulltext#:%7E:text=It%20is%20for%20these%20reasons,%2C%20anxiety%20or%20depressive%20symptoms.%E2%80%9D">harmful for some people</a> and may increase the risk of PTSD.</p>
<p>The group of trauma survivors that are most vulnerable to the toxic effects of debriefing are those who are more distressed in the acute phase right after the trauma. This group of people have worse mental health outcomes if they are provided with early debriefing. </p>
<p>This may be because their trauma memories are over-consolidated as a result of the emotional disclosure so shortly after the event, when <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3181836/#:%7E:text=Brain%20areas%20implicated%20in%20the,norepinephrine%20responses%20to%20subsequent%20stressors.">stress hormones</a> are still highly active. </p>
<p>In normal clinical practice a person would be assessed in terms of their suitability for any psychological intervention. But in the case of universal psychological debriefing there is no prior assessment. Therefore, there’s no assessment of the risks the intervention may pose for the person.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-manage-the-psychological-effects-of-natural-disasters-194">How to manage the psychological effects of natural disasters</a>
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<h2>Replacing debriefing</h2>
<p>Most international bodies have shifted away from psychological debriefing. Early intervention might now be offered as “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/psychological-first-aid">psychological first aid</a>”. </p>
<p>This newer approach is meant to provide <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241548205">fundamental support and coping strategies</a> to help the person manage the immediate aftermath of adversity. One of the most important differences between psychological first aid and psychological debriefing is that it does not encourage people to disclose their emotional responses to the trauma. </p>
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<p>But despite the increasing popularity of psychological first aid, it is difficult to assess its effectiveness as it does not explicitly aim to prevent a disorder, such as PTSD.</p>
<h2>Wanting to help</h2>
<p>So if there is so much evidence, why do we keep having this debate about the optimal way to assist psychological adaptation after disasters? Perhaps it’s because it’s human nature to want to help. </p>
<p>The evidence suggests we should monitor the most vulnerable people and target resources towards them when they need it – usually some weeks or months later when the dust of the trauma has settled. Counsellors might want to promote their activities in the acute phase after disasters, but it may not be in the best interest of the trauma survivors. </p>
<p>In short, we need to develop better strategies to ensure we are meeting the needs of the survivors, rather than the counsellors.</p>
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<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208139/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Bryant receives funding from the NHMRC and the ARC. </span></em></p>Psychological debriefing usually involves counsellors providing survivors with a single counselling session soon after an event. But ‘talking through’ trauma can over-consolidate painful memories.Richard Bryant, Professor & Director of Traumatic Stress Clinic, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.