tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/elections-1389/articlesElections – The Conversation2024-03-28T12:21:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266712024-03-28T12:21:08Z2024-03-28T12:21:08ZErdoğan’s party seeks advantage as Turkey’s local elections coincide with Ramadan<p>Millions of voters in Turkey will <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-local-elections-things-to-know-1cad0f209f0aed8c78f41307b52d4c2d">head to the polls</a> on March 31 to elect mayors in local elections. These elections are seen as crucial both for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has been in power since 2002, and the opposition.</p>
<p>The last time Turkey held local elections, in March 2019, Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost key cities such as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48739256">Istanbul</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-loses-control-ankara-turkish-elections/">Ankara</a>. It will be looking to win them back. At the same time, retaining key cities would help revive Turkey’s opposition after it <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">failed to defeat</a> Erdoğan in the 2023 national and presidential elections.</p>
<p>How will the elections pan out on March 31? Many things have happened since the last local elections, not least the COVID pandemic and the devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-earthquakes-one-year-on-the-devastation-has-exposed-deep-societal-scars-and-women-are-bearing-the-brunt-221819">earthquakes</a> that rocked the country in 2023. But one thing is clearly different this time. While the elections in 2019 happened before the holy month of Ramadan, the 2024 elections will happen at the height of Ramadan.</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00031224221101204">Research</a> from 2022 that I co-authored with my colleague, Diego Gambetta, suggests that Ramadan can drive up the intensity of religious beliefs, bolster the success of religious organisations, and even influence the results of elections. </p>
<p>Erdoğan’s AKP has a strong base of support among people from the conservative tradition of Turkey. This could give the party an extra edge. However, the role Ramadan might play in the elections is intricate. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">How Erdogan held onto power in Turkey, and what this means for the country's future</a>
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<h2>The Muslim holy month</h2>
<p>Ramadan is the holiest month of the Islamic year. It is a month where religious activities as well as charity and community services increase. Muslims abstain from drinking, eating, smoking and sexual intimacy from sunrise to sunset for a whole month.</p>
<p>Ramadan fasting is a physically and mentally demanding religious practice. Nevertheless, a very large majority of Muslims <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/dataset/the-worlds-muslims/">report</a> to be adhering to the full month of fasting.</p>
<p>A particular feature of Ramadan is that its start date is based on the lunar calendar. The lunar year is shorter than the solar year. Therefore, the whole month of Ramadan shifts back in the solar year by about 11 days each year. Because fasting happens between sunrise and sunset, this means that how long people must fast in a Ramadan day varies over the years. </p>
<p>How much day length changes over the years also varies by latitude. Take, for instance, London. When Ramadan falls in December (which happened during the late 1990s), a Muslim Londoner fasts for slightly less than eight hours. However, when Ramadan falls in June (which happened in 2015), the fasting duration is nearly 17 hours, a difference of nine hours. </p>
<p>In Antakya, the southernmost city in Turkey, the same difference between a winter and summer Ramadan day length is only about five hours (just below ten hours in winter and just above 14 hours in summer).</p>
<h2>Do religions defy the law of demand?</h2>
<p>The changing start date of Ramadan gives <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/130/2/615/2330341">researchers</a> a source of variation in the costliness of religious practice. This variation, in turn, helps researchers tackle the following longstanding social scientific puzzle.</p>
<p>As the cost of an activity increases (in this case, the physical and mental demands of fasting), people should, in theory, not be willing to spend as many resources on it, assuming all else remains equal. Economists call this the law of demand. In the religious domain, however, something different seems to happen. </p>
<p>Research, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00031224221101204">including my own</a>, shows that the more effort someone exerts in religious practice, the more religious they get, and subsequently the more successful religious organisations that require those practices become. </p>
<p>The mechanisms that give rise to this effect seem to involve adaptive preferences. This is where gradually increasing effort in a certain task raises a person’s commitment to the task. Indeed, the change in fasting duration over the years happens only gradually rather than abruptly.</p>
<p>If religiosity increases and religious organisations become more successful during and after Ramadans with long fasting days, we can, in principle, detect the effects of Ramadan on the electoral cycle. The longer people are fasting during Ramadan, the more votes Islamic political parties should get.</p>
<p>We tested this prediction in our research using data from Turkey, focusing on the parliamentary elections from 1973 to 2018. We found that a half-hour rise in the duration of Ramadan fasting increases the vote share of Islamist political parties by 11%. The sooner the election is after Ramadan, the stronger the effect of fasting duration on Islamic votes. </p>
<p>It seems that gradually exerting higher religious effort further intensifies religious beliefs and participation, which in turn drives up votes for political parties with religious connotations.</p>
<h2>What will happen on March 31?</h2>
<p>All else equal, which admittedly is never the case, the fact that Turkey’s local elections are taking place during Ramadan should help Islamist political parties gain ground, including Erdoğan’s AKP.</p>
<p>However, Ramadan day length in the northern hemisphere peaked in 2019 and has been decreasing since. This could mean that Islamic parties will face a steeper uphill struggle to keep their votes in the longer term. This is particularly true at northern latitudes (both within Turkey and beyond) where the decline in Ramadan day length is stronger. </p>
<p>It is difficult to tell which of these two opposing effects of Ramadan will dominate on March 31. But <a href="https://tr.euronews.com/2024/03/06/31-mart-yerel-secimleri-son-anketlere-gore-istanbulda-kim-onde-imamoglu-ve-kurumun-oyu-kac">polls</a> show that the race between AKP and the opposition is very close in many places. </p>
<p>In such close elections small factors could tip the balance. Time will soon tell who Ramadan will be most generous towards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ozan Aksoy receives funding from the British Academy (Grant no: SRG20\200045). </span></em></p>Research finds that Ramadan can bolster the success of religious organisations and even influence the results of elections.Ozan Aksoy, Associate Professor in Social Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255262024-03-22T12:32:51Z2024-03-22T12:32:51ZTikTok’s duet, green screen and stitch turn political point-scoring into an art form<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583248/original/file-20240320-26-kf77aa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C844%2C748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">TikTok's features for combining users' videos lend themselves to political disputes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/13360/11589">Quick et al</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since its <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/09/14/massive-tiktok-growth-up-75-this-year-now-33x-more-users-than-nearest-competitor/">astronomical rise in popularity</a> during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns, TikTok has played an increasing role in all aspects of American life, including politics, from the White House <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/11/tik-tok-ukraine-white-house/">briefing key TikTok creators</a> on the war in Ukraine to Joe Biden’s presidential campaign <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/joe-biden-tiktok-campaign-comments/">launching a TikTok account</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation on March 13, 2024, seeking to force TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell the app <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-governments-ban-tiktok-can-they-a-cybersecurity-expert-explains-the-risks-the-app-poses-and-the-challenges-to-blocking-it-202300">or face a ban</a> in the U.S. Even if this legislation passes the Senate and Biden signs it into law, it’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ban-bill-explained-politics-tech-platform-2024-3">unlikely TikTok will go away</a> before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Any law banning TikTok is likely to be challenged in court, and the app won’t simply disappear from people’s phones overnight.</p>
<p>Given that TikTok is almost certain to play a role in the 2024 election, it’s important to examine how TikTok helps shape political expression and discussion. With communications scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nionUr8AAAAJ&hl=en">Mackenzie Quick</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=0LbmlocAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">I</a> recently published a journal article exploring how American TikTok users use the app’s stitch, duet and green screen features to stoke partisan conflict.</p>
<h2>Getting together</h2>
<p>TikTok says its mission is to “<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/about?lang=en">inspire creativity and bring joy</a>.” In 2019, it introduced several features to help bolster that mission: duet, green screen and stitch. Duet allows you to post your video side by side with a video from another TikTok user. Green screen allows you to superimpose your video on a video from another TikTok user. Stitch allows you to append your video to the end of a short clip from a video from another TikTok user. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NmkwMnsyXTU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">TikTok offers several ways to add your video commentary to other people’s tiktoks.</span></figcaption>
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<p>TikTok describes these features as giving users “<a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-gb/green-screen-effect-on-tik-tok/">the most creative tools available</a>” and providing a way for users “<a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/new-on-tiktok-introducing-stitch">to engage with the world of content that’s made</a> … by the ever-creative TikTok community.” Given these descriptions, it appears that these tools were designed to increase creativity, interaction and connections.</p>
<p>They can be used in playful ways or used by subject matter experts to convey information. For example, some veterinarians use TikTok to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2022.2109980">convey pet health information</a>. </p>
<p>However, a platform’s statements about how it intends its features to be used and how people actually use them can be quite different. While these features are often used in TikTok’s preferred ways, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5210/fm.v29i3.13360">our research found</a> that in political tiktoks, people often used the tools to double down on their political positions and attack those who don’t agree with them. In a time of volatile political divisiveness, these features can function as outlets for people to express their strongly held political views. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="blurred photo of a woman's face superimposed ove a text list" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1087&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1087&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1087&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583245/original/file-20240320-24-9wz7ue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A TikTok user makes a political statement using the app’s green screen feature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/13360/11589">Quick et al</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Scoring points</h2>
<p>Reinforcement and insults were recurring themes in our study. For instance, the green screen feature was often used to incorporate “evidence” in the background to support the creator’s claims. With this feature, “evidence” was often presented in the form of news articles or posts from other social media platforms. </p>
<p>One post from a conservative-leaning creator features a screenshot of the Apple iTunes music store charts to show the popularity of a song called “Let’s Go Brandon,” a conservative rallying cry and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/lets-go-brandon-what-does-it-mean-republicans-joe-biden-ab13db212067928455a3dba07756a160">coded insult</a> against Biden. This creator presents the song’s position at No. 1 in the music store as proof that the conservative viewpoint is popular. “Evidence” is a loose term and could be anything that supported the creator’s viewpoint. </p>
<p>We found the duet feature was often used to communicate nonverbally, often to poke fun at someone with opposing political views. Eye rolling, smirking and head shaking were common gestures. In one video, a conservative creator starts a chain – an extended succession of duets – of women who support former President Donald Trump. A liberal-leaning creator uses the duet feature to join the chain with video of themselves holding a clothes iron out to the side to make it appear as though the iron is burning the original creator’s hand. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Side-by-side photos of people with faces blurred" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1025&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1025&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1025&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1289&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583481/original/file-20240321-16-wz1mwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1289&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TikTok’s duet feature is often used to show support or opposition to a political statement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/13360/11589">Quick et al</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Stitches functioned similarly to duets, but people tended to use the feature as a chance to verbally respond and refute the previous creator’s point. These uses show that on political TikTok, personal feelings and proving others wrong matter more than constructive debate.</p>
<h2>The who and why of political TikTok</h2>
<p>While regulation of the app is a political issue, understanding how political conversations occur across TikTok remains important for understanding an increasingly polarized American electorate. When considering political discussions on TikTok, however, it’s important to remember that the app’s features don’t force users to do anything. Users actively shape their experiences in digital spaces.</p>
<p>Also, as political communication scholars <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=w36ZS44AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Daniel Kreiss</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=eyKkCV4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Shannon McGregor</a> note, it’s important to proceed with caution when discussing the effects of technology on polarization because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/14614448231161880">not all groups experience polarization the same way</a>. For instance, the Black Lives Matter movement may be seen as polarizing for disrupting existing power structures, but its goal is to fight for equality, and it’s important to consider that context when looking at the group’s use of technology. </p>
<p>The lesson is to consider who is engaging in polarizing content and why they are doing so. While some users expressing themselves via these TikTok features aim to simply prove others wrong, akin to petty arguments, others may be critiquing and challenging the powerful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225526/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Maddox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>TikTok’s features for combining different users’ videos have sparked a wave of creativity. They’ve also formed an arena for political arguments and insults.Jessica Maddox, Assistant Professor of Journalism and Creative Media, University of AlabamaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247862024-03-19T18:17:34Z2024-03-19T18:17:34ZDeepfakes are still new, but 2024 could be the year they have an impact on elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580733/original/file-20240308-30-tf2e5r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3865%2C2582&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deep-fake-ai-face-swap-video-2376208005">Tero Vesalainen / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Disinformation caught many people off guard during the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2018/620230/EPRS_ATA(2018)620230_EN.pdf">2016 Brexit referendum</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07761-2">US presidential election</a>. Since then, a mini-industry has developed to analyse and counter it.</p>
<p>Yet despite that, we have entered 2024 – a year of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024">more than 40 elections</a> worldwide – more fearful than ever about disinformation. In many ways, the problem is more challenging than it was in 2016. </p>
<p>Advances in technology since then are one reason for that, in particular the development that has taken place with synthetic media, otherwise known as deepfakes. It is increasingly difficult to know whether media has been fabricated by a computer or is based on something that really happened. </p>
<p>We’ve yet to really understand how big an impact deepfakes could have on elections. But a number of examples point the way to how they may be used. This may be the year when lots of mistakes are made and lessons learned.</p>
<p>Since the disinformation propagated around the votes in 2016, researchers have produced countless books and papers, journalists have retrained as <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/391-global-fact-checking-outlets-slow-growth-2022/">fact checking and verification experts</a>, governments have participated in <a href="https://www.igcd.org/">“grand committees”</a> and centres of excellence. Additionally, <a href="https://royalsociety.org/blog/2022/03/how-libraries-can-fight-disinformation/">libraries</a> have become the focus of resilience building strategies and a range of new bodies has emerged to provide analysis, training, and resources.</p>
<p>This activity hasn’t been fruitless. We now have a more nuanced understanding of disinformation as a social, psychological, political, and technological phenomenon. Efforts to support public interest journalism and the cultivation of critical thinking through education are also promising. Most notably, major tech companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-set-up-team-counter-disinformation-ai-abuse-eu-elections-2024-02-26/">no longer pretend to be neutral platforms</a>. </p>
<p>In the meantime, policymakers have rediscovered their duty to <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-services-act_en">regulate technology</a> in the public interest. </p>
<h2>AI and synthetic media</h2>
<p>Regulatory discussions have added urgency now that AI tools to create synthetic media – media partially or fully generated by computers – have gone mainstream. These deepfakes can be used to imitate the voice and appearance of real people. Deepfake media are impressively realistic and do not require much skill or resources. </p>
<p>This is the culmination of the wider digital revolution whereby successive technologies have made high-quality content production accessible to almost anyone. In contrast, regulatory structures and institutional standards for media were mostly designed in an era when only a minority of professionals had access to production.</p>
<p>Political deepfakes can take different forms. The recent Indonesian election saw a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/12/asia/suharto-deepfake-ai-scam-indonesia-election-hnk-intl/index.html">deepfake video “resurrecting” the late President Suharto</a>. This was ostensibly to encourage people to vote, but it was accused of being propaganda because it produced by the political party that he led.</p>
<p>Perhaps a more obvious use of deepfakes is to spread lies about political candidates. For example, <a href="https://ipi.media/slovakia-deepfake-audio-of-dennik-n-journalist-offers-worrying-example-of-ai-abuse/">fake AI-generated audio</a> released days before Slovakia’s parliamentary election in September 2023 attempted to portray the leader of Progressive Slovakia, Michal Šimečka, as having discussed with a journalist how to rig the vote.</p>
<p>Aside from the obvious effort to undermine a political party, it is worth noting how this deepfake, whose origin was unclear, exemplifies wider efforts to scapegoat minorities and demonise mainstream journalism. </p>
<p>Fortunately, in this instance, the audio was not high-quality, which made it quicker and easier for fact checkers to confirm its inauthenticity. However, the integrity of democratic elections cannot rely on the ineptidude of the fakers.</p>
<p>Deepfake audio technology is at a level of <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-audio-deepfakes-are-quickly-outpacing-detection/">sophistication that makes detection difficult</a>. Deepfake videos still struggle with certain human features, such as the representation of hands, but the technology is still young.</p>
<p>It is also important to note the Slovakian video was released during the final days of the election campaign. This is a prime time to launch disinformation and manipulation attacks because the targets and independent journalists have their hands full and therefore have little time to respond.</p>
<p>If it is also expensive, time-consuming, and difficult to investigate deep fakes, then it’s not clear how electoral commissions, political candidates, the media, or indeed the electorate should respond when potential cases arise. After all, a false accusation from a deepfake can be as troubling as the actual deepfake.</p>
<p>Another way deepfakes could be used to affect elections can be seen in the way they are already widely used to <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/04/22/a-lifelong-sentence-the-women-trapped-in-a-deepfake-porn-hell">harass and abuse</a> women and girls. This kind of sexual harassment fits an <a href="https://theconversation.com/online-abuse-could-drive-women-out-of-political-life-the-time-to-act-is-now-214301">existing pattern</a> of abuse that limits political participation by women. </p>
<h2>Questioning electoral integrity</h2>
<p>The difficulty is that it’s not yet clear exactly what impact deepfakes could have on elections. It’s very possible we could see other, similar uses of deepfakes in upcoming elections this year. And we could even see deepfakes used in ways not yet conceived of.</p>
<p>But it’s also worth remembering that not all disinformation is high-tech. There are other ways to attack democracy. Rumours and conspiracy theories about the integrity of the electoral process are an insidious trend. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1abd7fde-20b4-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b">Electoral fraud is a global concern</a> given that many countries are only democracies in name. </p>
<p>Clearly, social media platforms enable and drive disinformation in many ways, but it is a mistake to assume the problem begins and ends online. One way to think about the challenge of disinformation during upcoming elections is to think about the strength of the systems that are supposed to uphold democracy. </p>
<p>Is there an independent media system capable of providing high quality investigations in the public interest? Are there independent electoral administrators and bodies? Are there independent courts to adjudicate if necessary? </p>
<p>And is there sufficient commitment to democratic values over self interest
amongst politicians and political parties? This year of elections, we may well find out the answer to these questions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eileen Culloty coordinates the Ireland Hub of the European Digital Media Observatory, which is part-funded by the European Commission to undertake fact-checks, analysis, and media literacy.</span></em></p>As technology has advanced, AI-generated deepfakes have become more convincing.Eileen Culloty, Assistant Professor, School of Communications, Dublin City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255082024-03-18T18:33:20Z2024-03-18T18:33:20ZChad presidential election: assassination of main opposition figure casts doubt on country’s return to democracy<p><em>The <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/chad-opposition-leader-assassinated-1185873/">assassination</a> of Chad’s main opposition leader, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68435145">Yaya Dillo</a>, is hanging heavy over <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/28/chads-election-agency-sets-dates-for-presidential-polls//">presidential elections</a> due in early May. Dillo was killed on 28 February when the headquarters of the opposition <a href="https://psf-tchad.org/">Party Socialiste sans Frontières</a> (Party of Socialists without Borders) in the Chadian capital N'Djamena was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/28/chad-announces-several-deaths-after-foiled-intelligence-office-attack">besieged</a> by the newly formed Rapid Reaction Force.</em> </p>
<p><em>It’s not the first violence meted out to the opposition. In October 2022 Chadian security forces <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/24/deadly-chad-protests-death-toll-now-estimated-at-128//">killed</a> hundreds of protesters. They were protesting the extension of the transition to democracy from 18 to 36 months and the decision of transitional <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/mahamat-idriss-deby-itno-named-chad-s-transitional-president/2706374">president Mahamat Idriss Déby</a> to stand as a candidate in presidential elections.</em></p>
<p><em>An expert on democratisation in sub-Saharan Africa, especially Chad, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/helga-dickow-1209876">Helga Dickow</a>, sets out what this level of violence portends for the country.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>Who was Dillo, and why was he important for the upcoming poll?</h2>
<p>The assassination took place one day after the publication of the electoral calendar for the presidential elections. For the first time a member of the ruling clan was killed publicly in N'Djamena. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.state.gov/chads-national-dialogue-commission-report/">resolutions</a> of the 2022 national dialogue, elections must take place before October 2024 to end the political transition and return to constitutional order. No dates have been set for the parliamentary and local elections. It is more than doubtful that they will take place in the near future.</p>
<p>Dillo was determined to take part in the elections and challenge the rule of his cousin, Mahamat Déby, even though he’d faced heavy intimidation. His <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/01/chad-prominent-opposition-leader-killed">stated ambition</a> was to see Chad return to democracy, to end widespread corruption and improve the living conditions of poor people in the country. </p>
<p>Dillo had clear ideas about fighting poverty based on insights he’d gained doing a doctorate in economics in Canada.</p>
<p>There are a number of reasons, in my view, why his death is a tragic loss for Chad.</p>
<p>Firstly, Chad has lost a political leader whose competences are desperately needed in the country.</p>
<p>Secondly, Yaya Dillo was one of the few politicians from the north of the country and the only one from the ruling Zaghawa clan who reached out to and connected with the opposition in the south. </p>
<p>He had shown that he was able to overcome ethnic, religious and regional boundaries in a highly divided country. An example of this was that he <a href="https://eng.fatshimetrie.org/2023/12/11/political-tensions-in-chad-one-week-before-the-vote-on-the-new-constitution-the-country-is-preparing-to-make-a-crucial-decision-for-its-future/">joined</a> the opposition coalition Groupe de concertation des acteurs politiques (Group of Consultative Political Actors), which opposes the dynastisation of the Déby family and stands for better living conditions for all Chadians. </p>
<p>This voice has now been silenced. His supporters are in <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/01/chad-prominent-opposition-leader-killed">hiding</a> or have already been arrested and taken to the Koro Toro high-security prison in the desert. His party has been dissolved by the government.</p>
<h2>What does the assassination mean for the presidential elections?</h2>
<p>Dillo’s murder hasn’t changed the programme for the upcoming elections. Three days after Dillo’s death, transitional president Mahamat Déby <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/2/chad-interim-leader-deby-confirms-plan-to-run-for-president-in-may">declared</a> himself a candidate. </p>
<p>Déby, who became interim president in 2021, is the candidate of a new coalition of more than 200 political parties and more than 1,000 civil society organisations, the so-called Coalition pour un Tchad uni (<a href="https://www.trtafrika.com/news/for-a-united-chad-coalition">Coalition for a United Chad</a>).</p>
<p>The driving force behind this coalition is the former ruling party <a href="https://tsep.africa.ufl.edu/the-party-system-and-conditions-of-candidacy/chad/">Mouvement Patriotique du Salut</a>, which was led by his <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Idriss-Deby">father, the late Idriss Déby</a>. </p>
<h2>How prepared is Chad to conduct elections?</h2>
<p>The transitional president and his allies, especially the Movement Patriotique du Salut and some members of the parliament, are in a hurry to hold the elections to replace the “interim president” with a “president”.</p>
<p>But the key question is whether the presidential poll will be followed by parliamentary elections, as was agreed in the transition plan of the <a href="https://www.state.gov/chads-national-dialogue-commission-report/">national dialogue of 2022</a>. </p>
<p>There are many, including myself, who doubt this will happen. Mahamat Déby is likely to act like his father, who attached great importance to presidential elections but steered clear of parliamentary polls. Before <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-signs-of-a-true-transition-in-chad-a-year-after-idriss-debys-death-181203">Idriss Déby’s death</a> in 2021, the last parliamentary elections were held in <a href="https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3518/">2011</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, there are strong doubts about the independence of the electoral authorities. Mahamat Déby nominated most members of the Agence nationale de gestion des élections (<a href="https://eng.fatshimetrie.org/2024/01/26/the-national-election-management-agency-in-chad-a-crucial-issue-for-democracy-in-a-period-of-political-transition/">National Election Management Agency</a>) and of the Constitutional Court, which must validate the election results. All of them were loyal to his father in the past and have been members of the Movement Patriotique du Salut for many years.</p>
<p>Potential candidates in the presidential election could submit their candidacy from 6 to 15 March. The list of candidates approved by the Constitutional Council will be published on 24 March. Voter registration has already taken place in preparation for the constitutional referendum in December 2023. The same lists will be used. But anyone who reached the age of 18 in the period between the registration exercise and May 2024 will not be able to vote.</p>
<p>From a logistical point of view, everything seems to be ready for the presidential poll.</p>
<h2>What’s behind the political violence in the country?</h2>
<p>Violence against the political opposition is nothing new in Chad. It has always taken the form of attacking anyone in the way of either Déby. In 2008, <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/afr200032012en.pdf">Ibni Oumar</a>, a widely respected political opponent of Idriss Déby in the north and south, was arrested. He <a href="https://sudantribune.com/article26131/">disappeared</a>. No trace of his body was ever found.</p>
<p>On 28 February 2021, Yaya Dillo was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68435145">attacked</a> in his home and his mother and other members of his household were killed. He managed to escape. He had declared his intention to run against <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Idriss-Deby">Idriss Déby</a> in the presidential poll that year. </p>
<p>On exactly the same day three years later, he was killed in very similar circumstances. </p>
<p>Dillo was one of the few Zaghawa who <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202403060514.html">continued</a> to call for an investigation into Idriss Déby’s death. Three years later, the circumstances are still unclear. Salay Déby, a younger brother of Idriss Déby, has gone as far as to <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/violence-against-chads-opposition-escalates-before-polls/a-68450630">accuse</a> Mahamat Déby, the (adopted) son and president of the transitional government, of being behind the death of his own father. </p>
<p>Yaya Dillo and Salay Déby, both members of the ruling clan, joined forces two weeks before Dillo’s assassination. The party headquarters that has now been destroyed was located in Salay Déby’s house.</p>
<h2>How inclusive is the electoral process?</h2>
<p>Looking only at the Coalition pour un Tchad uni, the electoral process might appear to be inclusive. But democracy is not a one-party system. It is doubtful that all the parties and associations joined out of conviction in favour of Mahamat Déby and his allies in the parliament.</p>
<p>On the contrary, it is obvious that the regime used and will continue to use violence. The fear is that recent events are only the beginning of another permanent dictatorship in Chad.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225508/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helga Dickow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is feared that the current violence against political opposition in Chad could signal the beginning of another long term dictatorship.Helga Dickow, Senior Researcher at the Arnold Bergstraesser Institut, Freiburg Germany, University of FreiburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230352024-03-18T10:59:45Z2024-03-18T10:59:45Z2024 Senegal election crisis points to deeper issues with Macky Sall and his preferred successor<p>The botched attempt by Senegalese president <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Macky-Sall">Macky Sall</a> to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">postpone</a> the presidential election has stirred unnecessary tension in an already strained electoral process. The move reflected deeper governance problems in the country.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/3/senegals-macky-sall-postpones-presidential-election">Sall’s decree</a>, subsequently <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/02/16/constitutional-council-plunges-senegal-into-the-unknown-by-overturning-election-postponement_6531088_124.html">annulled by the Constitutional Council</a>, was the latest in a range of government interventions that exceeded the scope of the executive authority. These have included the <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/22/sonko-wade-not-listed-among-official-candidates-of-feb25-presidential-election/">disqualification</a> of key opposition candidates, the manipulation of judicial procedures, and the arbitrary detention of dissenting figures.</p>
<p>Sall’s 12-year tenure has been marked by contradictions. His administration boosted investment in transport and urban infrastructure. Notably, he worked on the <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/319731593403262722/text/Senegal-Transport-and-Urban-Mobility-Project.txt">motorway network</a>, the new Diass international airport, the development of major roads and the completion of public transport projects.</p>
<p>But these investments have not translated into improvements in the lives of Senegalese. Thousands of young people still go on <a href="https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1072143/politique/tribune-whatshappeninginsenegal-quand-le-drame-des-migrants-passe-au-second-plan/">perilous journeys</a> to Europe having lost hope of fulfilling their potential in their own country.</p>
<p>This is the backdrop to his move to postpone the elections in a last bid to secure a winning strategy for his camp. His anointed successor, <a href="https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/1109-44836-senegals-macky-sall-endorses-pm-amadou-ba-as-2024-successor">Amadou Ba</a>, remains a contested figure within the ruling <a href="https://www.senegel.org/en/movements/political-parties/poldetails/2">Alliance for the Republic Party</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Amy-Niang">I have a research interest</a> in state formation in west Africa. As I <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781786606525/The-Postcolonial-African-State-in-Transition-Stateness-and-Modes-of-Sovereignty">have argued</a> in my work, states sustain themselves by producing and alienating internal “others”. This refers to a scenario where governments assert sovereignty not against outside forces but against internal cultural groups and existing logics of governance. Sall’s style of government follows this pattern closely. </p>
<h2>Crisis within his party</h2>
<p>Sall <a href="https://fr.africanews.com/2024/02/10/senegal-macky-sall-se-justifie-sur-le-report-de-la-presidentielle//">said</a> he was postponing elections because of an alleged conflict between parliament and the Constitutional Council. The parliament had approved the creation of a commission of inquiry into the process of validation of presidential candidacies by the Constitutional Council.</p>
<p>Sall in fact latched onto <a href="https://www.bbc.com/afrique/articles/c1vywrx3xx9o">an accusation</a> of corruption levelled by Karim Wade against two Constitutional Council judges following Karim’s disqualification from running in the election due to his dual citizenship.</p>
<p>But the most plausible reason was a crisis within the ruling camp. The Alliance for the Republic is a divided party that is going to the elections in disarray. Sall’s chosen successor, <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/world/senegal-pm-amadou-ba-named-ruling-party-candidate-for-president/">Ba</a>, has generated little enthusiasm among voters. He symbolises the status quo. An affluent candidate, Ba has the difficult task of convincing an impoverished electorate that he is up to the task. </p>
<p>Sall overstepped his constitutional powers. The Senegalese <a href="https://adsdatabase.ohchr.org/IssueLibrary/SENEGAL_Constitution.pdf">constitution’s limitation</a> of the president’s term duration can’t be amended. Further, according to the <a href="https://dge.sn/sites/default/files/2019-01/CODE%20ELECTORAL%202018_0.pdf">electoral code</a>, the decree setting a date for presidential elections must be published no later than 80 days before the scheduled ballot. Sall postponed the poll just 12 hours before the campaigning was due to start, and <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2024/02/14/senegal-authorities-restrict-internet-access-and-ban-march//">22 days before the ballot</a>.</p>
<p>Sall’s attempt at postponing the elections, which has fostered a climate of distrust in the integrity of the electoral process, has left Senegal embroiled in a serious constitutional crisis. His decree brought forth two important issues:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the government’s commitment to an orderly handover of power</p></li>
<li><p>the integrity of the democratic process.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Erosion of a democratic tradition</h2>
<p>Since 2021, a series of protests and riots have pitted Ousmane Sonko, a key opposition figure facing rape allegations, and his supporters against a government accused of manipulating the judiciary to thwart a serious candidate. As a result, the economy has been severely disrupted. Each day of protests causes an estimated <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/restaurants-water-towers-unrest-dents-senegals-economy-2023-06-09/">$33 million loss</a> in economic output. </p>
<p>Further, Sall has used security and defence forces to establish an order of fear. He has resorted to heavy-handed measures against opposition figures and dissenting voices within civil society through arbitrary detention and prosecution. His government has systematically <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/05/senegal-violent-crackdown-opposition-dissent">restricted</a> the freedom of assembly, banned protests, suppressed independent media and mobilised public resources to bolster the ruling party.</p>
<p>For all these reasons, Senegal has seen an erosion of institutions meant to uphold the rule of law, foster political participation and ensure public accountability.</p>
<p>Sall was elected in <a href="https://fr.allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00016260.html">2012</a> after a tumultuous period under the flamboyant government of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abdoulaye-Wade">President Abdoulaye Wade</a>. Sall owes his entire political career to Wade’s patronage. Yet their relationship soured when it became evident that Sall harboured ambitions to challenge Wade’s son, <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/profile/id/254/page/4">Karim</a>, who was being groomed to succeed his father. </p>
<p>Sall pledged to deliver virtuous and frugal governance. But public euphoria soon petered out as scandals involving cabinet ministers and <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2019/06/25/senegal-soupconne-de-corruption-le-frere-du-president-macky-sall-demissionne_5481292_3212.html">close family members</a> laid bare the corruption within the administration.</p>
<p>In 2023, amid much brouhaha over the validity of a third term, Sall <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66093983">yielded</a> to public pressure after <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/senegalese-opposition-rally-against-president-sall-s-possible-third-term-ambition-/7091705.html">violent protests</a>. These resulted in the most serious political crisis since the 1960s, claiming over 60 lives and leading to the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/22/senegal-pre-election-crackdown">arrest</a> of over 1,000 people.</p>
<h2>Where to for Senegal?</h2>
<p>In compliance with the <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/senegal-presidentsets-presidential-election-for-march-24-4547872">Constitutional Council ruling</a>, Sall has finally agreed to organise elections before his exit.</p>
<p>As the election day of 24 March draws near, the absence of key contenders, and uncertainties regarding the electoral procedures, inject an element of unpredictability. </p>
<p>Furthermore, the erosion of trust is such that the Senegalese public still doubts Sall’s commitment to fulfil his obligations and facilitate an orderly handover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Niang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attempts to postpone Senegal’s election indefinitely reflect deeper governance problems within Macky Sall’s administration, and the shortcomings of his chosen heir, Amadou Ba.Amy Niang, Head of Research Programme, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258282024-03-15T14:22:33Z2024-03-15T14:22:33ZHalf the world will vote in 2024, but how many elections will be fair?<p>This year has been widely proclaimed to be the year of elections, with national elections expected in at least <a href="https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/">64 countries</a>. This means that half of the world’s population will have the opportunity to change their government, choose their representatives and indirectly shape policy. It began as a year of hope – and the prospect of democratic empowerment.</p>
<p>But so far in 2024, elections have already been marred by problems. February elections in Pakistan were riddled with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/03/shehbaz-sharif-sworn-in-as-prime-minister-of-pakistan">allegations of rigging and irregularities</a>. </p>
<p>Polls were opened in Belarus, but were labelled as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/25/belarus-elections-alexander-lukashenko-opposition">“farce”</a> by opposition parties, most of which were banned from the ballot paper. International observers <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/563046">have called out</a> crackdowns on human rights defenders and activists who have been “imprisoned in deplorable conditions, without the right to a fair trial”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, voters are heading to the polls in Russia, where all meaningful opposition was effectively stifled before election day. The results were declared by many as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-recap-russian-election-special-and-the-winner-will-be-vladimir-putin-225835">foregone conclusion</a> before the ballots are counted. </p>
<p>Threats to elections such as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f23c01-fa51-408e-acf5-0d30a5a1ebf2">disinformation</a>, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/reimagining-federal-election-funding/">inadequate funding of electoral authorities</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68531799">a lack of transparency over political donations</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-reasons-britains-impending-voter-id-law-is-a-bad-idea-196436">restrictive voter identification requirements</a> have been flagged as concerns elsewhere in the world where elections are due to happen – including the UK.</p>
<h2>Summit for Democracy</h2>
<p>This should come as no surprise. The reality and wider narrative in 2024 has been that we live in an era of “democratic backsliding”. According to a recent report from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, entitled <a href="https://v-dem.net/documents/43/v-dem_dr2024_lowres.pdf">The Varieties of Democracy</a>, the global level of democracy in 2023 was back to that in 1985 – before the collapse of the Soviet Union. </p>
<p>Autocracy has been growing in eastern Europe and south and central Asia. There are also signs of democratic decline even in the older democracies such as the <a href="https://tobysjamesdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2024/03/backsliding_report_digital_v1.pdf">UK</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01442872.2021.1957459">USA</a>. </p>
<p>In response to these broad international developments, the US president, Joe Biden, launched the <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy-2021/">Summit for Democracy</a> in December 2021, claiming that the defence of democracy was “the defining challenge of our time”. </p>
<p>Political leaders were asked to make commitments to improve democracy in their own backyard. More than 100 governments made <a href="https://summit4democracy.org/commitments/">written and video commitments</a> for how they would do this. The first summit was virtual because of the pandemic, but this year, leaders are flying to Seoul, South Korea, for the <a href="https://s4dkorea.kr/?menuno=5">third Summit</a> to discuss how to improve the quality of democracy and elections in their countries. </p>
<p>There is considerable work to be done to improve elections globally. Since 2012, the <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/">Electoral Integrity Project</a>, an international academic think tank which researches how to improve elections, has published <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/global-report-2023">data on election quality</a>. The map below shows the average election quality between 2012-2022, using this data. Countries in green have the highest quality, while those in red have a lot of work to do to improve election quality.</p>
<p>Election quality is the highest in Finland (see graphic) where electoral laws are fair to smaller parties, voter registration is seamless and electoral authorities are professional. </p>
<p>Across the border in Russia, where – as we’ve heard – voters are headed to the polls, the government has almost complete control of the broadcast media which slavishly toes the government line, election results lack transparency, most prominent opposition candidates are banned from the ballot – or are either in prison, exiled, or – as in the case of Alexey Navalny – have <a href="https://theconversation.com/alexei-navalny-reported-death-of-putins-most-prominent-opponent-spells-the-end-of-politics-in-russia-223766">died in mysterious circumstances</a>.</p>
<p>But even in Finland there are areas for improvement. There is scope for better transparency in how election campaigns are funded and equal access to campaign funds. </p>
<p>Finland is not alone – money is the biggest threat to elections. Campaign finance is weakest aspect of elections around the world according to our data. The idea that underpins democracy is that everyone has an equal chance at the ballot box. So finding a way to stop the flows of money that give some candidates and parties an unfair advantage remains a central problem. </p>
<h2>Commitments missing the mark</h2>
<p>Leaders have been reluctant to use previous summits as an opportunity to make commitments to improve their elections. So far in the first two summits, only 19 countries <a href="https://commitments.summitfordemocracyresources.eu/">have committed</a> to improving the quality of their elections.</p>
<p>But some leaders have set examples by making pledges to improve the integrity of their country’s elections. In 2021, Ireland set out an extensive <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/IRELAND-Summit-for-Democracy-Written-Statement-Accessible-Final.pdf">range of commitments</a>, some of which are now a reality. This included setting up an independent <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.ie/">electoral commission</a> at a time where the independence of electoral authorities has been claimed to be under pressure in countries including <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-plans-to-take-control-of-the-independent-electoral-commission-in-another-assault-on-democratic-institutions-171366">the UK</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/07/mexico-democracy-protestst-lopez-obrador-amlo/">Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, Ireland has been addressing weaknesses in its electoral processes. As the graphic above shows, Ireland’s greatest weakness elections is its voter registration process – and the Electoral Reform Act of 2022 has set in train a process for <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/859a0-significant-modernisation-of-irelands-electoral-system-to-be-delivered-under-electoral-reform-bill/">modernising this</a>.</p>
<p>The medicine being prescribed by some governments, does not fit the problem, however. Sweden’s elections are thought to be among the fairest in the world. The country made a commitment in 2021 to <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/220126-Swedens-democracy-commitments-Accessible-Final.pdf">improve voter turnout</a>. But according to the <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58533f31bebafbe99c85dc9b/t/649dee1ee6e6c50219e9fbd9/1688071716978/Electoral+Integrity+Global+Report+2023.pdf">Electoral Integrity Project data</a>, the most important areas for improvement are party donations and transparency.</p>
<p>Most worryingly, most countries have made no promises to improve elections at all. Free and fair elections are an indispensable part of democracy. This year, as half the world votes, successful leaders need to commit to work with all partners across the political spectrum and civil society to make elections fairer in the future based on the evidence.</p>
<p>So the 2024 Summit for Democracy is an opportunity for world leaders to make concrete commitments to ensure that elections really are a moment of free expression and empowerment – rather than autocratisation, control and disempowerment. They should do this through the use of evidence and collaboration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225828/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby James has previously received funding from the AHRC, ESRC, Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust, British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Electoral Commission, Nuffield Foundation, the McDougall Trust and Unlock Democracy. His current research is funded by the Canadian SSHRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Ann Garnett receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Defence Academy Research Programme. She has previously received funding from: the British Academy, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the NATO Public Diplomacy Division, the American Political Science Association Centennial Centre, and the Conference of Defence Associations.</span></em></p>We are living in an era of democratic backsliding. It is becoming increasingly vital to improve the quality of elections.Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East AngliaHolly Ann Garnett, Class of 1965 Professor of Leadership, Royal Military College of CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222152024-03-14T12:44:55Z2024-03-14T12:44:55ZTrump nearly derailed democracy once − here’s what to watch out for in reelection campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580558/original/file-20240307-22-g07jxw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6390%2C4780&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'We did win this election,' said then-President Donald Trump at the White House early on Nov. 4, 2020, on what was still election night.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-november-04-2020-news-photo/1229450800?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are the bedrock of democracy, essential for choosing representatives and holding them accountable. </p>
<p>The U.S. is a flawed democracy. The Electoral College and the Senate make voters in less populous states far more influential than those in the more populous: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/">Wyoming residents have almost four times the voting power of Californians</a>. </p>
<p>Ever since the Civil War, however, reforms have sought to remedy other flaws, ensuring that citizenship’s full benefits, including the right to vote, were provided to formerly enslaved people, women and Native Americans; establishing the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/369/186/">constitutional standard of one person, one vote</a>; and eliminating barriers to voting through the 1965 <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43626/15">Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has, in recent years, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">narrowly construed the Voting Rights Act</a> and <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">limited courts’ ability to redress gerrymandering</a>, the drawing of voting districts to ensure one party wins. </p>
<p>The 2020 election revealed even more disturbing threats to democracy. As I explain in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Autocrats-Seek-Power-Resistance-to-Trump-and-Trumpism/Abel/p/book/9781032625843">my book</a>, “How Autocrats Seek Power,” Donald Trump lost his reelection bid in 2020 but refused to accept the results. He tried every trick in the book – and then some – to alter the outcome of this bedrock exercise in democracy.</p>
<p>A recent New York Times story reports that when it comes to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/us/politics/trump-presidency-election-voters.html">Trump’s time in office and his attempt to overturn the 2020 election</a>, “voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics.” This, then, is a refresher about Trump’s handling of the election, both before and after Nov. 3, 2020.</p>
<p>Trump began with a classic autocrat’s strategy – casting doubt on elections in advance to lay the groundwork for challenging an unfavorable outcome.</p>
<p>Despite his efforts, Trump was unable to control or change the election results. And that was because of the work of others to stop him.</p>
<p>Here are four things Trump tried to do to flip the election in his favor – and examples of how he was stopped, both by individuals and democratic institutions.</p>
<p><strong>Anticipating defeat</strong> </p>
<p>Expecting to lose in November 2020, in part because of his disastrous handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, <a href="https://time.com/5514115/trump-rampant-voter-fraud-texas/">Trump proclaimed that</a> “all over the country, especially in California, voter fraud is rampant.” He called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/politics/trump-michigan-vote-by-mail.html">mail ballots “a very dangerous thing</a>.” Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and aide, declined to “commit one way or the other” about whether the election would be held in November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/jared-kushner-election-delay-coronavirus/">because of the COVID pandemic</a>. No efforts to postpone the election ensued.</p>
<p>Trump warned that Russia and China would “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mail-in-voting-foreign-intervention.html">be able to forge ballots</a>,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/26/trumps-corruption-election-just-took-hit-theres-still-problem/">a myth echoed by Attorney General William Barr</a>. Trump illegally threatened to have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/trump-election-day-sheriffs/index.html">law enforcement officers at polling places</a>. He falsely asserted that Kamala Harris “doesn’t meet the requirements” for serving as vice president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/trump-2020-election.html?searchResultPosition=3">because her parents were immigrants</a>. Asked if he would agree to a transition if he lost, he responded: “There won’t be a transfer, frankly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-2020-election.html">There’ll be a continuation</a>.” </p>
<p><strong>Threatening litigation</strong></p>
<p>Aware that polls showed Biden ahead by 8 percentage points, Trump declared, “As soon as that election is over, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/02/trump-lawyers-election-biden-pennsylvania/">we’re going in with our lawyers</a>,” and they did just that. Adviser Steve Bannon correctly predicted that on Election Night, “Trump’s gonna walk into the Oval (Office), tweet out, ‘I’m the winner. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/14/steve-bannon-leaked-audio-trump-jan-6-investigation/">Game over, suck on that</a>.’” </p>
<p>Trump followed the script, asserting at 2:30 am: “we did win this election. … <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/13/book-excerpt-i-alone-can-fix-it/">This is a major fraud in our nation</a>,” though the actual results weren’t clear until days later, when, on Nov. 7, the networks declared Biden had won.</p>
<p>Although many advisers said he had lost, Trump kept claiming fraud, repeating Rudy Giuliani’s false allegation that Dominion election machines had switched votes – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-criminal-case.html;%20https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/us/politics/trump-meadows-republicans-congress-jan-6.html;%20https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0ac71f75acfacc52ea80b3e747fb0afe">a lie for which Fox News agreed to pay $787 million</a> to settle the defamation case brought by Dominion.</p>
<p><strong>Taking direct action</strong></p>
<p>Trump allies pressured state legislators to create false, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/06/fake-trump-electors-ga-told-shroud-plans-secrecy-email-shows/">“alternative” slates of electors</a> as a key strategy for overturning the election. Trump contemplated declaring an emergency, ordering the military to seize voting machines and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">replacing the attorney general with a yes-man</a> who would pressure state legislatures to change their electoral votes. </p>
<p><strong>Encouraging violence</strong></p>
<p>Trump summoned supporters to protest the Jan. 6 certification by Congress, boasted it would be “wild,” and encouraged them to march on the Capitol and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/14/million-maga-march-dc-protests/">“fight like hell,” promising to accompany them</a>. Once they had attacked the Capitol, he delayed for four hours before asking them to stop.</p>
<p>Yet Trump’s efforts to overturn the election failed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people with someone holding a sign that says 'Trump won the legal vote!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of Trump supporters, fueled by his spurious claims of voter fraud, flooded the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, protesting Congress’ expected certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowds-of-people-gather-as-us-president-donald-trump-speaks-news-photo/1230451810?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Resisting Trump</h2>
<p>Trump claimed that voting by mail produced rampant fraud, but state legislatures let <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-election-2020-campaign-2016-f6b627a5576014a55a7252e542e46508">voters vote by mail or in drop boxes</a> because of the pandemic. Postal Service workers delivered those ballots despite actions taken by Trump’s postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, that made processing and delivery more difficult.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-election-2020-ap-top-news-politics-us-news-dc647214b5fc91cc29e776d8f4a4accf">DeJoy denied any sabotage</a> in testimony before Congress. </p>
<p>Most state election officials, regardless of party, loyally did their jobs, resisting Trump’s pressure to falsify the outcome. Courts rejected all but one of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">Trump’s 62 lawsuits aimed at overturning the election</a>. Government lawyers refused to invoke the Insurrection Act and authorize the military to seize voting machines. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/12/19/trump-reportedly-asked-advisors-about-deploying-military-to-overturn-election/?sh=486535eece2b">military remained scrupulously apolitical</a>. And Vice President Mike Pence presided over the certification, in which 43 Republican senators and 75 Republican representatives joined all the Democrats to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">declare Biden the winner</a>.</p>
<p>That experience contains invaluable lessons about what to expect in 2024 and how to defend the integrity of elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard L. Abel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But the work of others, from lawmakers to judges to regular citizens, stopped him. There are cautionary lessons in that for the 2024 election.Richard L. Abel, Michael J. Connell Distinguished Professor of Law Emeritus, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250132024-03-12T12:31:57Z2024-03-12T12:31:57Z3 things to watch for in Russia’s presidential election – other than Putin’s win, that is<p>Russians will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-election-who-what-when-2024-03-11/">vote in a presidential election</a> from March 15-17, 2024, and are all but <a href="https://apnews.com/rusia-putin-election-2024">guaranteed to hand Vladimir Putin a comfortable victory</a>, paving the way for him to remain in power until at least 2030. </p>
<p>While the result may be a foregone conclusion, the election offers an important glimpse into the Kremlin’s domestic challenges as it continues a war against Ukraine that <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-war-in-ukraine-enters-third-year-3-issues-could-decide-its-outcome-supplies-information-and-politics-220581">recently entered its third year</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://politics.wfu.edu/faculty-and-staff/adam-lenton/">expert on Russian politics</a>, I have identified three key developments worth paying attention to during and after the upcoming election. Yes, we already know Putin will win. But nonetheless, this election is the largest public test of the Russian state’s ability to shape its desired result at home since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.</p>
<h2>1. Don’t mention the war (too much)</h2>
<p>The 2024 election is taking place during the largest interstate conflict to take place this century.</p>
<p>With Russian domestic media and politics all but gutted of dissenting voices, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/opinions/why-putin-wants-a-forever-war-galeotti/index.html">war has become</a> the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-war-ukraine-economy-policy-7428ef7b">organizing principle of post-2022 Russian politics</a>, shaping all major policies and decisions.</p>
<p>Yet, while the context of the war looms large, its role is largely implicit rather than occupying center stage. And for good reason: Banging the drums of war is not particularly popular.</p>
<p>In fact, the Kremlin’s strategy throughout the conflict has relied upon the general public’s acquiescence and disengagement from the war effort in exchange for <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118">a degree of normalcy</a> at home. </p>
<p>Officially, the war remains euphemistically termed a “special military operation,” yet it is also frequently framed by Moscow <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/3874880-putin-says-ukraine-war-poses-existential-threat-to-russian-people/">as an existential struggle</a> for Russia and a <a href="https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/comments/zapad-vedet-rukami-ukraintsev-voynu-s-rossiey-i-nazyvaet-eto-prekrasnoy-investitsiey/">proxy war</a> between Russia and the West.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks past a billboard with Russian words on and another will a soldier's head in a helmet depicted." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581084/original/file-20240311-30-jap2gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A billboard promotes the upcoming Russian presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaElection/44d797eb397e446684e1d02a8d485433/photo?Query=Putin&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=now-30d&totalCount=604&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the Russian public <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2023/10/31/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-otsenki-oktyabrya2023-goda/">still doesn’t agree</a> on what its aims are. There <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/wartime-putinism">are relatively few</a> ardent supporters of the war, outweighed by a <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/world/in-russia-clear-signs-of-war-fatigue/">more general sense of fatigue</a> among the public. This is supported by survey data that shows that <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2024/03/05/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-massovye-otsenki-fevralya-2024-goda/">consistent majorities</a> in Russia would prefer to start peace talks – though this of course does not tell us what type of peace they prefer.</p>
<p>Yet the war is putting pressure on the government’s ability to juggle ensuring a disengaged population and bolstering support for a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753">grinding war that demands unprecedented</a> resources.</p>
<p>Putin’s public communication in the buildup to the election reflects this tension. He announced his intention to run during an awkward, poorly staged interaction with an officer at a military award ceremony in December 2023. That choice <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91234">surprised some insiders</a>, who expected Putin to weave his announcement into a high-profile, choreographed event focusing on domestic achievements and not the ongoing war. </p>
<p>More recently, his state of the nation address on Feb. 29 <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91872">began and ended by lauding</a> the achievements of the war, yet the bulk of the address – the <a href="https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/65e069269a794724567533c5">longest of the 19</a> he has delivered since he first became president in 1999 – was devoted to a laundry list of achievements, programs and goals largely disconnected from the war itself.</p>
<h2>2. Pressure to deliver results for Putin</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-autocrats-rig-elections-to-stay-in-power-and-get-away-with-it-95337">autocratic regimes like Russia’s have proved adept</a> at managing the electoral process to squeeze out rivals and mitigate against upsets, elections are still high-stakes events.</p>
<p>For officials, the election is a litmus test for their ability to muster administrative resources and deliver Putin an electoral windfall. Most <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/people-don-t-want-to-vote">reports suggest the Kremlin is hoping to engineer</a> that the turnout is at least 70%, with around 80% of the vote for Putin – which would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/19/vladimir-putin-secures-record-win-in-russian-presidential-election">surpass his 76.7% share</a> from 2018.</p>
<p>For observers of Russian politics, what will be of interest is not the result itself, but how the result is produced during wartime conditions.</p>
<p>Take, for example, securing high turnout. One prominent tactic used by local officials in Russia is pressuring state employees and workers at state-owned corporations to turn up at the polls en masse.</p>
<p>But with the economy on a war footing, and with an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-short-around-48-million-workers-2023-crunch-persist-izvestia-2023-12-24/">acute labor shortage</a>, it is unclear whether this tried and tested approach will work. Moreover, political disengagement and the certainty of a Putin victory means that interest in voting is at an <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/people-don-t-want-to-vote">all-time low</a>. For local officials, the pressure is on.</p>
<p>At the head of efforts to engineer the election is Sergey Kiriyenko, Putin’s <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/10/the-viceroy">technocratic domestic policy czar dubbed</a> “viceroy of the Donbas” due to his role administering the occupied territories of Ukraine. Recent <a href="https://vsquare.org/kremlin-leaks-putin-elections-russia-propaganda-ukraine/">leaked documents</a> obtained by the Estonian website Delfi reveal how Kiriyenko’s team spent over US$1 billion in “pre-rigging” the election, sponsoring creative content such as films, TV series and video games replete with pro-government and anti-Western messaging.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s hard to say in advance whether such efforts will directly bear fruit. But the scale of the Kremlin’s investment in shaping the broader ideological environment indicates a degree of uneasiness with the public’s disengagement.</p>
<p>There are also new technical regulations that will boost Putin’s vote. The election will be held across three days instead of one. Together with this, the <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/03/07/the-digital-steal-en">rollout of electronic voting</a>, first used in Moscow elections in 2019, will make it easier to maximize turnout. These changes also make it difficult for observers to monitor the degree of fraud.</p>
<p>Beyond these subtler forms of manipulation, however, there are also overtly coercive ways to ensure vote targets are met. This is particularly the case for the millions of Ukrainians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/deportation-re-population-russia-occupied-ukraine-zaporizhzhia">currently under Russian occupation</a>, who are subject to intense pressure from the occupying authorities to acquire Russian citizenship and to vote.</p>
<h2>3. Silencing political opposition</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated-224303">death of longtime Putin critic Alexei Navalny</a> in February 2024 was a huge blow to the opposition but is representative of the state of political repression in Russia.</p>
<p>Since 2018, some <a href="https://www.proekt.media/en/guide-en/repressions-in-russia-study/">116,000 Russians have faced</a> political repression. Under such circumstances, the presidential election will be the least pluralistic in post-Soviet Russia, with only four candidates on the ballot box and no openly anti-war figures featured among them.</p>
<p>In previous elections, there has usually been a candidate from the so-called “liberal opposition.” For a while it <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/26/the-situation-took-a-wrong-turn">looked as though this trend might</a> continue in the form of independent Boris Nadezhdin, whose explicit anti-war program saw him <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/world/europe/russia-putin-election-boris-nadezhdin.html">gain unexpected traction</a> compared to other would-be candidates.</p>
<p>But by barring Nadezhdin from running, the Kremlin likely wished to avoid a repeat of 2018, when the Communist Party’s Pavel Grudinin <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/01/26/grudinin-russia-communist-party-gets-capitalist-makeover-lenin-sovkhoz-a60185">unexpectedly struck a chord</a> with voters for his down-to-earth populism. This forced state media to go into overdrive, turning the election into a mudslinging contest. </p>
<p>Yet the scale of public mourning for Navalny and the enthusiasm for Nadezhdin reveal that despite draconian wartime censorship and repression, there remains a <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/04/said-without-enthusiasm">sizable bloc of Russians eager</a> for authentic political alternatives.</p>
<p>For now, the closest candidate to an alternative appears to be <a href="https://www.russian-election-monitor.org/who-is-vladislav-davankov-a-new-hope-for-opposition-in-the-presidential-election.html">Vladislav Davankov</a> from the liberal-leaning party “New People,” who will likely draw votes from some of this anti-war constituency.</p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="https://davankov2024.ru/program">first point on his manifesto</a> calls for “peace and negotiations,” though “on our own terms.” Fresh <a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6552544">polling data</a> from state-owned VTsIOM suggests that he might well take second place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225013/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Lenton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Putin is all but guaranteed to win, war fatigue, electoral engineering and extreme risk-aversion suggest that the Kremlin is anxious to get these elections over and done with.Adam Lenton, Assistant Professor of Politics & International Affairs, Wake Forest UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229672024-03-11T12:24:32Z2024-03-11T12:24:32ZAncient Rome successfully fought against voter intimidation − a political story told on a coin that resonates today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576049/original/file-20240215-17705-r7jti2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy was enshrined in Roman currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This silver denarius, minted <a href="https://numismatics.org/crro/id/rrc-292.1">over 2,000 years ago</a>, is hardly the most attractive Roman coin. And yet, the coin is vital evidence for the early stages of a political struggle that culminated in Caesar’s assassination and the fall of the Roman Republic.</p>
<p>I first encountered this coin while <a href="https://history.iastate.edu/directory/david-hollander/">studying Roman history</a> in graduate school. Its unusual design gave me pause – this one depicted figures walking across a narrow bridge and dropping something into a box. I moved on after learning it depicted voting, reasoning that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah06338">Roman mint officials</a> occasionally made idiosyncratic choices.</p>
<p>But as voting access evolves in the U.S., the political importance of this centuries-old coin seems more compelling. It turns out that efforts to regulate voting access go way back.</p>
<h2>Roman voting</h2>
<p>Voting was a core feature of the Roman Republic and a <a href="https://archive.org/details/worldofcitizenin0000nico">regular activity for politically active citizens</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah18141">Men, and only men</a>, could vote in multiple elections and legislative assemblies each year. So why would P. Licinius Nerva, the official responsible for this coin, choose to depict such a banal activity? </p>
<p>The answer lies in voting procedures that sometimes heavily favored elites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Panoramic view of ancient Roman columns and buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Roman Forum was a common site of political activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_romanum_6k_(5760x2097).jpg">BeBo86/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah20037.pub2">comitia centuriata</a>, the assembly that elected Rome’s chief magistrates, each citizen was a member of a voting unit based on wealth. Unit members voted to decide which candidates they collectively supported, like U.S. presidential elections where it’s not the popular vote but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-electoral-college-exist-and-how-does-it-work-5-essential-reads-149502">number of Electoral College votes</a> that determines the winner. </p>
<p>The wealthiest Romans controlled more than half of the voting units in this assembly. The poorest citizens had just one voting unit; since they voted last, and only during uncertain outcomes, they might not vote at all. </p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens voted orally and openly. Elites could directly observe and potentially intimidate poorer voters.</p>
<h2>Regulating Roman electioneering</h2>
<p>That all began to change in 139 BCE when the Roman politician <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.35">Aulus Gabinius passed a law</a> mandating written ballots for elections. Two further laws, <a href="https://archive.org/details/romanvotingassem0000tayl">both passed in the 130s</a>, extended the use of written ballots to legislative voting and most trial juries.</p>
<p>These written ballots made it more difficult for elites to influence voting but not impossible. Each unit formed its own line leading to a bridge where voters received ballots to mark and <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb01565.0001.001">place in a basket</a>. Elites could station themselves or their allies on the bridge to encourage people to vote the “right” way.</p>
<p>The reverse of Nerva’s coin depicts the reception and deposit of the ballot, the first and last moments of a voter’s time on the bridge. The absence of nonvoter figures on the coin, apart from a poll worker, is key to understanding its message.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bronzed silver coin with one figure receiving a ballot from another figure while another deposits a ballot in a box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reverse of a Roman silver coin minted by P. Nerva, circa 113 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 119 BCE, a young politician named Gaius Marius <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0007.tlg031.perseus-eng1:4.2">passed a law</a> that <a href="https://www.loebclassics.com/view/marcus_tullius_cicero-de_legibus/1928/pb_LCL213.505.xml">narrowed voting bridge widths</a>, allowing voters to mark their ballots without elites looking over their shoulders. Nerva’s coin, minted six or seven years later, almost certainly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511584015">refers back to this law</a>. By showing only voters on the bridge, Nerva was celebrating an important voting rights victory and announcing his allegiance to Marius.</p>
<p>The aristocrats never managed to repeal the voting laws and were <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.33">still grumbling about them</a> even as the Republic collapsed.</p>
<p>The long Roman struggle over voting procedures provides a useful and perhaps even comforting reminder. <a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/">Changing state voting laws</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/">election lawsuits</a> are nothing new. The fight over voter access to the ballot is an inevitable side effect of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David B. Hollander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fighting for voter access is an inevitable part of any democracy, from ancient Rome to the US today. Roman legislators were able to thwart elite political sway by introducing written ballots.David B. Hollander, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251162024-03-11T09:26:55Z2024-03-11T09:26:55ZHow Haiti became a failed state<p>The US military started <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/10/us-report-airlift-embassy-staff-haiti-gangs-fighting-port-au-prince">airlifting</a> embassy staff out of Haiti overnight as the Caribbean island descends further into chaos. Rival gangs have joined forces to overrun the country’s capital, Port-au-Prince, in an attempt to force the resignation of the acting president, Ariel Henry. </p>
<p>The gang leader behind the violence, Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier, has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/haiti-gangs-prime-minister">warned</a> there will be a “civil war that will lead to genocide” if Henry does not step down.</p>
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<p>Over the past week, Haiti’s gangs have carried out a series of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-68507837">coordinated attacks</a> on prisons and police stations, breaking more than <a href="https://apnews.com/article/haiti-prison-break-2788f145b0d26efc2aa199e923724e0f">3,800 criminals</a> out of Haiti’s two biggest jails, while also laying siege to the country’s port and airport. </p>
<p>Haiti is already facing a humanitarian crisis. It is among the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/haiti/overview">poorest countries</a> in Latin America and the Caribbean, with <a href="https://www.unicef.org/media/135966/file/Haiti-2022-COAR.pdf">90% of the population</a> living below the poverty line. And following the recent wave of violence, around <a href="https://www.rescue.org/eu/press-release/haiti-violence-grows-ensuring-sufficient-funding-available-key-deliver-humanitarian">15,000 people</a> who were already housed in internal displacement camps have been forced to leave again. </p>
<p>Henry came to power in 2021 under a deal agreed with the opposition following the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/haiti-president-jovenel-moise-reportedly-assassinated">assassination</a> of Haiti’s president, Jovenel Moïse. Henry is widely considered illegitimate by the Haitian public and was due to stand down by February 7. But he seems to be <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/in-haiti-crisis-has-roots-in-history-of-foreign-interference/">extending his stay</a>. </p>
<p>The country last went to the polls in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/29/haiti-presidential-election-result-protest-jovenel-moise">2016</a> and there is no timetable for new elections. Over the past six years, the Haitian parliament has ground to a halt: no major laws have been passed and only one budget was voted on.</p>
<p>The regime is weak and lacks control over the country’s territories, leading to a situation where Haiti finds itself hostage to its criminal gangs. US officials have said they will not pressure Henry to leave, but they are urging him to facilitate the transition to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/6/us-denies-pressuring-haiti-pm-henry-to-resign-urges-political-transition">democratic government</a>.</p>
<h2>Turbulent history</h2>
<p>Violent gangs are not new to Haiti. Between 1957 and 1986, Haiti was ruled as a dictatorship by the Duvalier family. Following an unsuccessful military coup in 1958, François Duvalier sought to bypass the armed forces by creating a private and personal militia called the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1971/04/23/archives/papa-doc-a-ruthless-dictator-kept-the-haitians-in-illiteracy-and.html">“Tonton Macoutes”</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://coha.org/tonton-macoutes/">Macoutes</a> consisted of illiterate fanatics-turned-reckless gunmen acting as a paramiltary force. They were not accountable to any state body or court and were fully empowered to dispose of the paranoid president’s enemies. </p>
<p>The group was dismantled in 1986, but its members continued to terrorise the population. Gangs have been <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GITOC-Gangs-of-Haiti.pdf">involved</a> in massacres, attacks on labour strikes or peasant uprisings, and politically motivated assassinations ever since. </p>
<p>Haiti took its first step toward a full democratic transition in 1990, electing Jean-Bertrand Aristide as president. But the Aristide government was overthrown by a <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2021/political-anatomy-haiti-armed-gangs">military coup</a> the following year and the Haitian army was subsequently dismantled. The Haitian army was a highly corrupt force, but doing away with it meant the country could no longer fight organised crime. </p>
<p>By that time, Haitian drug traffickers were <a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/extradition-drug-smuggler-underscores-haitis-historical-cocaine-transit-hub-status/">working closely</a> with Colombia’s Medellín Cartel. They were corrupting officials and the police while shifting hundreds of tons of cocaine from Colombia to secluded docks in Haiti and onwards to the US. Drug trafficking became a little known, yet significant source of income for Haiti’s political and business elites who provided protection and logistical support for drug traffickers.</p>
<p>Efforts aimed at disbanding certain armed groups and even the armed forces never fully succeeded. They never disarmed and have converted themselves into far-right vigilantes such as community defence groups and paramilitaries.</p>
<p>Haiti was then struck by an earthquake in 2010. This allowed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/20/haiti-escaped-prisoners-cite-soleil#">thousands of inmates</a> to escape from crumbling jails and take over these self-defence groups. These younger, less politically affiliated and loosely organised gangs are developing into the criminal organisations that are wreaking havoc across Haiti today.</p>
<h2>A state run by gangs</h2>
<p>Gangs have grown rapidly in number over the past few years. An estimated <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/haiti-gangs-organized-crime/">200 criminal gangs</a> now exist in Haiti, and around 95 in the capital, Port-au-Prince, alone. This has resulted in massive insecurity, kidnappings, and large-scale attacks on the police, politicians, journalists and civilians. </p>
<p>Gangs now tend to be affiliated to two groups. The most prevalent gang structure is that of “G-9 and Family”, a federation of nine gangs led by alias “Barbecue”. Founded in 2020, the G-9 has been <a href="https://insightcrime.org/haiti-organized-crime-news/g9-family-profile/">linked</a> to Moïse and Henry’s Haitian Tèt Kale Party (Parti Haïtien Tèt Kale – PHTK), for whom the federation is alleged to have ensured votes.</p>
<p>The G-9’s focus is mostly on extortion and kidnappings. It has taken taken control of key economic activities, including the main entry and exit points of Port-au-Prince, and critical infrastructure such as ports and oil terminals, charging “protection payments” for any institutions that operate in these areas.</p>
<p>The recent jailbreaks were a joint operation with “G-Pep”, another gang federation that was previously linked to PHTK’s political opponents.</p>
<h2>No end in sight</h2>
<p>To bring this crisis to an end, Haiti needs an elected government. But holding elections in this climate won’t be an easy task, nor will it solve the deep-rooted causes of lawlessness.</p>
<p>The conditions for free and fair elections do not currently exist, and the infrastructure that would make them possible is absent. Equally, any free and fair election should take place in a context where gangs do not intimidate voters to vote in a particular way. </p>
<p>In October 2023, the UN Security Council <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/02/haiti-un-security-force-kenya-gangs">voted</a> to send a Kenyan-led multinational security force to Haiti to reign in the gangs and their spiralling violence. However, the peacekeeping mission has been delayed and no other countries have come forward to provide the resources required to restore peace. </p>
<p>But an election is long overdue, and the status-quo will not solve anything.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Haiti is facing a wave of chaos as gang violence grips the country.Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251012024-03-07T07:45:35Z2024-03-07T07:45:35ZNew European law aims to protect media outlets against disinformation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579815/original/file-20240221-24-8xtwbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6016%2C3998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/online-news-on-smartphone-mockup-website-1866430684">Oatawa / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-threatens-global-elections-heres-how-to-fight-back-223392">Disinformation</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/04/trump-ai-generated-images-black-voters">AI-generated content</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-people-who-share-fake-news-on-social-media-actually-think-theyre-helping-the-world-215623">fake news</a> pose a serious <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-2024-well-truly-find-out-how-robust-our-democracies-are-to-online-disinformation-campaigns-224789">threat to our democratic processes</a>. With half of the world’s population taking part in more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/23/2024-global-elections-tracker-voting-dates-us-india-indonesia-belarus-haiti-pakistan-full-list">80 national elections in 2024</a> – including European elections in June – independent and trustworthy media outlets are more vital than ever, and important steps are being taken to safeguard them.</p>
<p>In December 2023, the European Parliament reached an agreement on the proposed <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_5504">European Media Freedom Act</a> (EMFA). This act aims to harmonise EU members’ national legislation on editorial freedom, as well as media pluralism and independence. It was passed in response to the digital transformation of the media sector in recent decades.</p>
<p>The proposal was approved by a large majority (448 votes for, 102 against, and 75 abstentions), after being announced in April 2021 by commissioner Thierry Breton. It forms part of a framework for making media businesses sustainable, while also promoting democratic participation, fighting disinformation, and fomenting media freedom, independence and pluralism.</p>
<p>There is concern across the EU about mistrust arising from political bias in the media, as well as a lack of transparency in media ownership and in the allocation of state advertising. The EMFA aims to combat political interference in editorial decisions in both public and private media, and to protect journalists and their sources.</p>
<h2>Where does Europe get its news?</h2>
<p>According to the 2022 <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2022/dnr-executive-summary?utm_campaign=Future%20of%20Journalism&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter"><em>Digital News Report</em></a>, northern Europeans are more likely to see the press as free from undue political interference than their neighbours in the south and east. Finland and The Netherlands have the highest rates of trust in media independence, at 50% and 46% respectively. In contrast, this opinion is only shared by a small minority in Greece (7%), Spain and Italy (13%), and Hungary and Bulgaria (15%). </p>
<p>A July 2022 Eurobarometer survey showed that television was the main source of news for 75% of EU citizens, especially among older generations. In contrast, 43% use online news platforms, 39% the radio, 26% social media and blogs. Printed media came in last, with only 21% relying on it regularly.</p>
<p>Although traditional news sources are still relevant, 88% of those surveyed got their news through smartphones or computers. Nowadays, paying for news is the exception: of those who accessed news online, 70% did so for free. </p>
<p>The more recent <a href="https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/european-media-industry-outlook">European Media Industry Outlook</a>, published by the European Commission in May 2023, noted that consumers have become accustomed to not paying for news as a result of online business models. Media outlets therefore have to continually experiment and innovate, and lean on strengths such as brand loyalty and the trust of their audiences.</p>
<h2>Ensuring freedom from interference</h2>
<p>Under the new rules, EU member states are required to respect the editorial freedom of media outlets. The press, in turn, has to ensure total transparency in what they publish, which must also be reflected in their online presence and other easily accessible content.</p>
<p>The EMFA protects news outlets, journalists and households from spyware programs, with only a few exceptions. Additionally, journalists cannot be prosecuted for protecting the confidentiality of their sources. This detail was included in the new law because regulation currently varies among EU members.</p>
<p>The law also strengthens protections of publicly owned media outlets, as they play a key role in informing the public. However, public media’s close proximity to national political institutions can make them more open to political interference. The EMFA therefore also includes measures to regulate public media, including transparent selection processes for its directors, and measures to ensure they can only be dismissed or step down under certain circumstances. </p>
<p>On this matter, the EU’s Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_5504">was unequivocal</a>: “no public media should be turned into propaganda channel.”</p>
<p>Member states are also required to establish steps to assess concentrations of private media ownership, as this can affect media pluralism.</p>
<p>Another key aspect is the requirement for public authorities at all levels (national, regional and local), to publish annual reports on the distribution of public media investment. Audience data providers, in turn, have to provide detailed information regarding the methods they use.</p>
<p>The EMFA reminds large digital platforms that they hold significant sway over this sector as a whole. <a href="https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/dsa-vlops">Online platforms</a> with over 45 million users (an all but explicit reference to the “Big Five” tech companies) who wish to stop publishing media content should inform media companies in advance, and address their complaints as a matter of priority.</p>
<p>Such large companies are required to prove their compliance with this obligation through annual reports.</p>
<h2>Regaining public trust</h2>
<p>Even with its limitations, the EMFA can play an important part in creating a climate of trust. It can help to make journalism more viable, encourage healthy competition, and limit the potential for abuse by both EU governments and big technology platforms. </p>
<p>However, while the legal framework it establishes is sorely needed, it does not go far enough. Media companies need to continue to be creative and innovative in order to stay relevant to increasingly sceptical audiences, who do not consume news in the same ways as previous generations.</p>
<p>Today, we know that only a concerted effort to regain public trust and loyalty will provide media companies with an increase in paid subscribers. These consumers are the ones who assume the civic burden of sustaining the media, though only after considerable hesitation has a consensus begun to emerge on this point among news companies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francisco J. Pérez Latre no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>The European Media Freedom Act aims to fight misinformation and ensure an independent press, while also keeping media outlets in business.Francisco J. Pérez Latre, Profesor. Director Académico de Posgrados de la Facultad de Comunicación, Universidad de NavarraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245992024-02-28T14:12:22Z2024-02-28T14:12:22ZMore than 100K Michigan voters pick ‘uncommitted’ over Biden − does that matter for November?<p>Joe Biden won the 2024 Michigan Democratic primary, but <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-election-michigan-2024-6e0b9fc18773e975fdfd23f7287ed615">“uncommitted” ran a spirited campaign</a>. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/27/us/elections/results-michigan-democratic-presidential-primary.html">100,000 Michiganders voted “uncommitted”</a> in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, 13% of the Democratic electorate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.listentomichigan.com/">Listen to Michigan</a> organized the uncommitted campaign in Michigan, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s public stance in support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-siege-has-placed-gazans-at-risk-of-starvation-prewar-policies-made-them-vulnerable-in-the-first-place-222657">Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza</a>.</p>
<p>The group also set a goal of securing more uncommitted votes than the 11,000-vote margin by which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president">Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016</a>. The total was nearly 10 times that number.</p>
<p>Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 154,181 votes.</p>
<p>While there were no exit polls conducted with Michigan primary voters, preelection polling just before the primary showed Biden’s weakness among potential <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/27/1234106750/uncommitted-voters-michigan-primary-arab-muslim-dearborn-hamtramck-detroit">young voters as well as Arab Americans</a>.</p>
<p>Michigan has the largest Arab, Muslim and Palestinian population in the United States, currently numbering <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/arab-population-by-state">more than 200,000</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-dearborn-michigan-the-first-arab-american-majority-city-in-the-us-216700">A brief history of Dearborn, Michigan – the first Arab-American majority city in the US</a>
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<p>More than half of the population of Dearborn, Michigan, is Arab, as is its mayor; it is home to <a href="https://theconversation.com/islams-call-to-prayer-is-ringing-out-in-more-us-cities-affirming-a-long-and-growing-presence-of-muslims-in-america-205555">the largest mosque in the United States</a>. One of the leaders of the uncommitted movement is U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib from the 12th District, the first Palestinian American woman elected to Congress.</p>
<p>At time of publication, with 98% of precincts reporting a day after the election, <a href="https://cityofdearborn.org/documents/city-departments/city-clerk/elections/election-results/2024-election-results/8310-february-27-2024-primary-election-unofficial-results-as-of-11-30-p-m/file">vote tallies from Dearborn</a>, the city with the highest percentage of Arab American voters in the state, show “uncommitted” leading there – 6,290 votes to President Biden’s 4,517. </p>
<p>It’s not clear that all of the uncommitted voters were part of the protest. In primaries, some voters will vote uncommitted if they have not yet made their choice or don’t want to disclose that choice for any number of reasons. In 2020, 19,106 Democratic voters in Michigan <a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/heres-how-many-people-voted-uncommitted-in-past-michigan-presidential-primaries">selected uncommitted, while 21,601 did so in 2016</a> – even though no protest was attached to those decisions.</p>
<p>What makes the 2024 primaries different from previous contests is that uncommitted voters are being reported in exit polls and by election officials because that designation actually appears on the ballot in some states. </p>
<p>Besides Michigan, which added uncommitted to its primary ballots in 2012, there are uncommitted lines on the ballots in New Hampshire, North Carolina and South Carolina; Florida has a “no preference” line. In Oregon and <a href="https://crosscut.com/politics/2024/02/faq-washingtons-march-12-presidential-primary">Washington</a>, citizens will be able to vote for an uncommitted delegate to the convention. </p>
<p>Selecting uncommitted is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/michigan-democrats-organizers-urge-uncommitted-vote-feb-27-primary-2024-02-06/">way for voters to express dissatisfaction</a> with the candidates whose names appear on the ballot while still participating in the democratic act of voting. </p>
<p>In my view, this form of peaceful protest is an essential element of American democracy and more demonstrative than staying home from the polls. </p>
<p>It is not an option for the fall general election, where the only alternative to a Biden vote for Democrats will be to stay home or vote for Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Given his past <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/index.html">record</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/17/trump-muslim-ban-gaza-refugees">proposals</a> to exclude Arabs from immigration to the United States, I don’t believe that will be a realistic alternative for many of Michigan’s uncommitted voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224599/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Traugott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Organizers of the protest had set a goal of 11,000 uncommitted votes to show dissatisfaction with Biden’s support of Israel in the Israel-Hamas war.Michael Traugott, Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225192024-02-20T13:12:43Z2024-02-20T13:12:43ZSouth Sudan: some spoilers want peace to fail, putting 2024 elections at risk<p>South Sudan is expected to hold its first general election in <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-south-sudan-meet-its-election-deadline-this-time">December 2024</a>. It became an independent state in <a href="https://www.usip.org/programs/independence-south-sudan">2011</a>. </p>
<p>The long overdue election is one of the pillars of a <a href="https://docs.pca-cpa.org/2016/02/South-Sudan-Peace-Agreement-September-2018.pdf">peace agreement</a> signed in 2018. It helped end the 2013-2018 civil war that killed <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IN10975.pdf#page=1">nearly 400,000 people and displaced millions</a>. </p>
<p>Since then, the country has progressed in relative peace, with fewer incidences of conflict reported between 2018 and 2023. However, UN experts have <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144822">voiced concerns</a> about the likelihood of elections being held within agreed timelines. </p>
<p>The election has been slated for December 2024, provided a number of <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/s-sudan-risks-delayed-2024-elections-due-to-the-stuck-deal-4472812">issues</a> listed in the peace agreement are addressed. These include the making of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-sudans-constitution-making-process-is-on-shaky-ground-how-to-firm-it-up-177107">permanent constitution</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/peace-in-south-sudan-hinges-on-forging-a-unified-military-force-but-its-proving-hard-181547">unifying command of the military</a>.</p>
<p>But there have been major hurdles in the way of implementing the agreement. One of them is the <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jolte/article/view/248083">presence of spoilers</a> within the South Sudanese political landscape. </p>
<p>Spoilers, as I define them, are detractors who attempt to undermine the successful implementation of peace agreements. </p>
<p>I have researched <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jolte/article/view/248083">South Sudan’s peace process</a> for eight years. I have studied the evolution of the country’s conflict since 2013, and the <a href="https://erepo.usiu.ac.ke/handle/11732/6971">various hurdles</a> that warring parties face in their quest for peace.</p>
<p>In my view, spoilers comprise leaders and parties who view peace as a major threat to their interests and power. They willingly risk using any means, including violence, to derail peace agreements due to feelings of exclusion or betrayal. </p>
<p>South Sudan’s elections were initially planned for <a href="https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/counting-down-to-south-sudans-elections">2022, and then pushed to 2023 and now 2024</a>. These delays have been as a result of the lack of real peace. Instead, there’s negative peace: a peace deal exists but there are simmering tensions between warring factions and those left out of negotiations. </p>
<p>This exclusion has led to the proliferation of spoilers. As I warn in <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jolte/article/view/248083">my research</a>, in this context, a more inclusive process needs to be prioritised to save the country’s fragile peace and get the elections on track.</p>
<h2>What happened to negotiate peace in South Sudan</h2>
<p>A protracted <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/civil-war-south-sudan#:%7E:text=In%20December%202013%2C%20following%20a,ethnic%20groups%20in%20South%20Sudan.">political power struggle</a> between South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, and his deputy, Riek Machar, to lead the main political party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, sparked a civil war in 2013.</p>
<p>Violence first broke out after a <a href="https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/interview-kiir-has-deliberately-destroyed-splm-and-is-not-interested-in-bringing-genuine-peace-pagan-amum">volatile meeting</a> in July 2013 to decide who – between Kiir, Machar and Pagan Amum, then the secretary-general of the party – would be its flagbearer in elections scheduled for 2015. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/23/south-sudan-state-that-fell-apart-in-a-week">December 2013</a>, fighting between military forces loyal to either Kiir or Machar – who are from the country’s two largest ethnic groups – escalated. </p>
<p>The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement splintered into two factions in 2014. One is led by Kiir, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Government; the other by Machar, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.usip.org/south-sudan-peace-process-key-facts#:%7E:text=The%20South%20Sudan%20peace%20process,a%20post%2Dconflict%20political%20transition.">International and regional interventions</a> led to a long peace process that resulted in the signing of several peace agreements. Between 2013 and 2018, six main agreements and five addenda were signed to help resolve the South Sudan conflict. </p>
<p>The key sticking points in these deals were around how power would be shared between the warring parties, military integration of armed forces, addressing the root causes of the conflict, and healing the nation through a truth, justice and reconciliation process. </p>
<p>The last peace agreement was <a href="https://horninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/No.-17.-The-Revitalized-Agreement-for-Resolution-of-Conflict-in-South-Sudan-R-ARCSS-1.pdf#page=1">signed</a> in September 2018 by five key actors and a group of smaller opposition parties, signalling an end to the five-year conflict. </p>
<p>Elections were originally slated for <a href="https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/counting-down-to-south-sudans-elections">December 2022</a>. They were later postponed due to delays in implementing the peace agreement. </p>
<h2>Who are the spoilers?</h2>
<p>Spoilers can destroy peace agreements. There are two main types of spoilers: <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/jolte/article/view/248083">insiders and outsiders</a>. </p>
<p>Insider spoilers participate in the peace process, sign the peace agreement and even signal support for its implementation. However, they fail to follow through. Their motives for this include the need to achieve their goals by maintaining the guise of supporting the peace process. They are especially sensitive to decisions that would weaken them militarily. </p>
<p>In South Sudan, insider spoilers include <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/kiir-puts-south-sudan-on-edge-4154634">the two breakaway parties</a> of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. They are the main signatories of the 2018 peace agreement. Their spoiling role has been exhibited by a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/is-south-sudan-s-peace-deal-holding-/7004434.html">lack of political goodwill</a> in upholding the spirit and letter of the agreement on various issues. A good example of this is a recent <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/30/s-sudan-president-appoints-defence-minister-breaching-peace-deal">breach</a> when Kiir unilaterally appointed a defence minister from his own faction in total disregard of the peace agreement. </p>
<p>Outsider spoilers exclude themselves from the peace process because they feel their demands won’t be addressed. They openly declare their hostility to the process. They eventually use any means, including open violence, to disrupt and upset the process.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.voaafrica.com/a/south-sudan-s-holdout-rebel-groups-resume-talks/7016828.html">New negotiations</a> were held in 2023 to include outsider spoilers like <a href="https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/gen-cirillo-we-were-right-not-to-sign-the-peace-agreement">General Thomas Swaka</a> of the National Salvation Front and <a href="https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/q-a-nss-gen-akol-koor-cannot-convince-me-to-return-to-juba-gen-paul-malong">General Paul Malong</a>, a leader of the South Sudan United Front. These two parties are new entrants into the South Sudan political space and generally accommodate former Kiir allies. The negotiations didn’t bear fruit.</p>
<p>In my view, insider spoilers are more likely to disrupt the South Sudan peace process. They span both the political and military landscape and are very influential. Insider spoilers tend to have a large support base within the population. </p>
<h2>What happens now?</h2>
<p>New threats continue to emerge in the South Sudanese landscape, particularly as December 2024 draws closer. There have been <a href="https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/jonglei-two-spla-io-generals-defect-in-major-blow-to-machar">major defections</a> of influential generals from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition. They have expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of reforms and implementation of the current peace agreement. </p>
<p>This strains the delicate balance of power that has existed between the warring factions since 2018. These generals have a substantive following among the public and pose a serious risk to the South Sudan peace agenda. Failure to accommodate these generals could result in insecurity in the regions where they have influence, affecting the chances of holding peaceful elections.</p>
<p>South Sudan needs to reassess its commitment to peace. It can do this by including all aggrieved parties in the political peace process. This will help ensure that the country returns to normalcy under a government that’s legitimately in power after credible polls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edgar Githua does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A major hurdle in South Sudan is the presence of detractors who could undermine the successful implementation of peace agreements.Edgar Githua, Lecturer in International Studies, Strathmore UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237742024-02-16T18:21:08Z2024-02-16T18:21:08ZNavalny dies in prison − but his blueprint for anti-Putin activism will live on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576225/original/file-20240216-26-sb3w3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5946%2C3574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The legacy of Alexei Navalny lives on.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/portrait-of-alexei-navalny-candles-and-flowers-are-left-at-news-photo/2008366667?adppopup=true">Ian Langsdon/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Long <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/world/europe/russia-putin-election-boris-nadezhdin.html">lines of Russians endured subzero temperatures</a> in January 2024 to demand that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-anti-war-candidate-nadezhdin-says-he-has-enough-signatures-run-president-2024-01-31/">anti-Ukraine war candidate Boris Nadezhdin</a> be allowed to run in the forthcoming presidential election. It was protest by petition – a tactic that reflects the legacy of Alexei Navalny, the longtime Russian pro-democracy campaigner. Authorities say Navalny, a persistent thorn in the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/world/europe/aleksei-navalny-dead-russia.html">died in prison</a> on Feb. 16, 2024.</p>
<p>For more than a decade, Navalny fought Russian authoritarianism at the ballot box and on the streets as the most recognizable face of anti-Putinism, filtering support to candidates brave enough to stand against the Kremlin’s wishes. </p>
<p>Often opposition does not translate into electoral success. Nadezhdin supporters did not expect that their man could actually defeat Putin in the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-run-again-president-2024-2023-12-08/">vote scheduled for March 20, 2024</a>. Given how tightly the Kremlin controls politics in Russia, the result of the presidential election is a foregone conclusion.</p>
<p>But for many Russians, the opportunity to support Nadezhdin’s candidacy was the only legal means they had to communicate their opposition to Putin and the war. The fact that authorities ultimately <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/boris-nadezhdin-antiwar-candidate-putin/">barred</a> Nadezhdin from participating suggests that the Kremlin remains cautious about any candidate who punctures official narratives of a nation united behind Putin’s war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>That effort to protest the election seems all the more poignant following Navalny’s death. It reflected the heart of a strategy that Navalny developed over more than a decade and that <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4HseTkMAAAAJ&hl=en">I have written about</a> since 2011.</p>
<h2>The movement remains</h2>
<p>Navalny understood that opposition in Russia was about exposing the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/united-russia-party-of-crooks-and-thieves-and-then-some/">corruption</a> in Putin’s party, United Russia; shining a light on <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/elections-protest-and-authoritarian-regime-stability/51A474C37A1671C885CC5F90091EDBC0">electoral manipulation</a>; and alerting the world to growing <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-repression-of-dissidents-civil-society-reaches-unprecedented-levels/7279656.html">political violence</a>. </p>
<p>Navalny highlighted the very real opposition to Putin and authoritarian rule that exists in Russia despite attempts to hide it from the world.</p>
<p>To achieve these goals, team Navalny – and it is important to remember that while Navalny the man is dead, the <a href="https://acf.international">movement he sparked</a> remains – repeatedly used elections to make the opposition visible and spark political debate.</p>
<p>Navalny <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russian-blogger-alexei-navalny-in-spotlight-after-arrest/2011/12/06/gIQA5tZPZO_story.html">emerged as a political force</a> in 2011, when he kicked off a large national protest movement ahead of the 2012 parliamentary election by labeling Putin’s United Russia the “Party of Crooks and Thieves.” He held contests to create memes to illustrate the slogan and mobilized voters who did not support Putin’s party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A protester wearing a hat stands in front of a sign in Russian that translates to 'We did not vote for crooks and thieves!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576222/original/file-20240216-16-d4pt1w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Opposition activists in 2011 declare, ‘We did not vote for crooks and thieves!’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/opposition-activists-protest-in-the-siberian-city-of-news-photo/135444601?adppopup=true">Valery Titievsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Putin inevitably won the election, with the head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observer mission commenting that <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/88661">due to irregularities and abuses</a> the winner “was never in doubt.”</p>
<p>But nonetheless, Navalny’s efforts meant that a new opposition was in place and ready to take to the streets to fight election fraud.</p>
<h2>Getting out of the electoral ‘ghetto’</h2>
<p>Despite his arrest and conviction on fraud charges in 2013, Navalny <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/russian-mayoral-election-white">ran for mayor</a> of Moscow that year. In the campaign, he innovated electoral politics, recruiting young volunteers who met voters on the streets and in their apartment blocks. </p>
<p>Navalny <a href="https://www.lai.lv/viedokli/navalnys-i-have-a-dream-moment-in-moscows-mayoral-election-313">won almost 30%</a> of the vote – double that expected – and claimed that the only reason Putin’s hand-picked candidate, Sergei Sobyanin, had got above the 50% needed to secure a first-round victory was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/moscows-mayoral-race-rattles-the-kremlin/2013/09/09/458edb8a-1986-11e3-8685-5021e0c41964_story.html">due to a falsified vote</a>.</p>
<p>Navalny later <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43555051">articulated</a> the real success, as he saw it, in an interview with fellow opposition figure <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-jails-putin-critic-vladimir-kara-murza-for-treason/a-65343380">Vladimir Kara-Murza</a>: “We have shown that ordinary people – with no administrative resources, no corporate sponsors, no public relations gurus – can unite and achieve results at the ballot box,” he said. “We have shown that we are no longer confined to a 3% electoral ‘ghetto.’”</p>
<p>Navalny concluded: “For me, the most important result of this campaign is the return of real politics to Russia.”</p>
<p>During that 2013 campaign, my research team <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/rupo/1/4/article-p347_2.xml">interviewed Navalny activists</a> and observed the work in campaign headquarters. </p>
<p>These interviews underscored Navalny’s relationship with the people. Many of the volunteers rejected the idea that they were working for him. Instead, they were volunteering because they admired Navalny’s tactics. They liked his political style. They wanted change in Russia.</p>
<p>Navalny brought Russians alienated by Russian politics together and empowered them. As one campaign volunteer <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/rupo/1/4/article-p347_2.xml">interviewed</a> in our study argued, “We all were frightened before the first protest and even left a will before we joined the movement. But it was not a mob. There were people like us. The feeling we had in Navalny’s office was the feeling of being with people like me.” </p>
<p>Through the next decade, Navalny and his team continued to return political competition to Russia’s politics. They built local organizations that attracted support and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200914-kremlin-set-for-victory-in-local-elections-navalny-s-allies-make-symbolic-gains-in-siberia">found some success</a> in Siberian cities Tomsk and Novosibirsk, despite the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/10/25/how-kremlin-learned-to-defeat-its-opposition-pub-85620">endless obstacles</a> the Kremlin placed in their way.</p>
<h2>Return from exile</h2>
<p>The culmination of these efforts is a system Navalny developed in 2018 called <a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-elections-media-voting-cec43110142e7ce362b2d4f9acd9b1f0">Smart Voting</a>. Through an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-elections-media-voting-cec43110142e7ce362b2d4f9acd9b1f0">online tool</a>, the Navalny team encourages Russians to support any reform-minded candidates in elections and in particular directs voters to the candidate most likely to beat Putin’s United Russia party.</p>
<p>Research by Russian scholars Mikhail Turchenko and Grigorii Golosov <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2022.2147485">shows that the tool</a> has had a very significant effect on voters and increasing turnout, opposition votes and popular attention on elections.</p>
<p>Navalny’s efforts seemingly irked the Russian state and may have been the impetus of an assassination attempt against him by Russia’s domestic security agency, known as the FSB, in 2020.</p>
<p>Navalny survived <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/14/alexei-navalny-in-critical-situation-after-possible-poisoning-says-ally">Novichok poisoning</a> only because <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/06/navalny-poisoning-germany-raises-pressure-on-russia-with-sanctions-talk">international pressure</a> forced the regime to allow him to be <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53865811">airlifted to Germany</a> for treatment. During his recovery, Navalny used the attack on him to further his political activism and convey the regime’s growing brutality. He famously <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwvA49ZXnf8">interviewed his would-be assassin</a> to uncover the details of the operation.</p>
<p>Navalny’s <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-alexey-navalny-returned-to-russia">return to Russia</a> under threat of arrest in February 2021 kicked off the largest street protests – in support of the opposition leader – since the collapse of the Soviet Union.</p>
<p>These protests inspired a new generation of activists. They also <a href="https://en.ovdinfo.org/suppression-rallies-support-alexei-navalny-january-17-and-18-2021">marked</a> new levels of police brutality against pro-democracy demonstrators in the streets and in the years since.</p>
<h2>Handing on the baton</h2>
<p>Since 2022, I have led a research team that has interviewed Russians who left the country in opposition to the war in Ukraine. Many participated in the anti-war protests of late February and early March 2022 and point to Navalny’s return to Russia as the origin of their own political engagement and activism.</p>
<p>As one respondent argued: “My civic position began to emerge. All this was close to Navalny, his movement, and his encouragement to notice something, to pay attention … I began to go to rallies, and became much more interested and aware of politics.”</p>
<p>While Navalny <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/25/europe/alexey-navalny-russian-opposition-found-prison-intl/index.html">languished in prison camps</a> following his arrest on charges of <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/02/02/russian-court-rules-jail-navalny">violating parole</a> during his recovery in Germany, many of these activists in exile <a href="https://www.helsinki.fi/en/news/democracy/democracy-exile-political-action-anti-war-russian-migrants-facilitates-possible-democratization">continued</a> to operate outside of Russia, our <a href="https://outrush.io/eng">research partners</a> have found.</p>
<p>They <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/underground-networks-russians-helping-ukrainian-refugees-2022-05-11/">support Ukrainian refugees and war efforts</a> and participate in tracking down children who have been taken to Russia. They are active in anti-war demonstrations and <a href="https://www.zois-berlin.de/en/press/press-releases/russian-migrant-activists-try-to-mobilise-diasporas-in-georgia-and-germany">support</a> each other in exile.</p>
<p>This new generation of Russian activists – whether those in exile advocating for change or those risking their well-being in Russia to support anti-war candidates – is Navalny’s legacy, and I believe it is powerful. </p>
<p>Before his death, Navalny <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-alexei-navalny-had-a-message-for-russians-if-he-died-2024-2">spoke directly to the generation of activists he inspired</a>: “Listen, I’ve got something very obvious to tell you. You’re not allowed to give up. If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223774/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Regina Smyth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alexei Navalny, a persistent thorn in the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin, died on Feb. 16, 2024, in prison, authorities said.Regina Smyth, Professor of Political Science, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230492024-02-16T15:52:25Z2024-02-16T15:52:25ZSri Lanka: why the country’s wait for elections must end<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576016/original/file-20240215-28-3959qo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5535%2C3676&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sri Lankan protesters invade the prime minister's residence in Colombo, July 13 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/colombo-sri-lanka-july-13-2022-2178308091">Sebastian Castelier/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sri Lanka is grappling with its worst <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-61028138">economic crisis</a> since independence in 1948. Soaring prices, shortages of essential goods and crippling external debts have sparked widespread protests across the country in recent years. In 2022, enraged demonstrators even stormed the residence of the then president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, forcing him to flee the country and resign. </p>
<p>The following year, elections were <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/sri-lanka-delays-first-vote-since-new-president-12203902.html">postponed</a> indefinitely. Rajapaksa’s successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, warned parliament that holding an election during the economic crisis could be disastrous. Opposition MPs criticised the move, accusing the president of using the economic crisis as an excuse to hold onto power and “sabotage democracy”. </p>
<p>But in November Wickremesinghe <a href="https://english.newsfirst.lk/2023/11/22/presidential-parliamentary-elections-next-year-ranil">announced</a> that presidential and parliamentary elections will finally be held in 2024 and 2025. Could this year be one of actual change that free and fair elections can bring? Or will they be used to tighten the grip of authoritarianism that was established by the Rajapaksa family over almost 15 years in power, and has worsened under Wickremesinghe?</p>
<p>Five elections will take place in South Asian countries this year, and most will likely return incumbent parties to power. It is not yet clear if Sri Lanka will follow suit.</p>
<h2>Unpopular candidate</h2>
<p>Wickremesinghe, who has already been Sri Lankan prime minister five times, is widely <a href="https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/For-me-to-be-back-I-must-contest-President-on-Presidential-election/108-276755">tipped</a> to run for presidency. But he faces vast criticism on the grounds that he came to power without being elected by the people. He won a parliamentary vote to replace Rajapaksa but has no popular mandate. </p>
<p>It is expected that he will capitalise on the “stability” he has brought to Sri Lanka since reaching an <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/03/20/pr2379-imf-executive-board-approves-under-the-new-eff-arrangement-for-sri-lanka">agreement</a> with the International Monetary Fund to approve a US$2.9 billion (£2.3 billion) loan to help the country through its financial crisis. </p>
<p>This stability, however, is a myth and the situation remains dire. More than <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/sri-lanka/sri-lanka-household-food-security-survey-preliminary-findings-december-2023#:%7E:text=In%202023%2C%20WFP%20and%20FAO,estimated%20to%20be%20food%20insecure.">17% of Sri Lankans</a> are suffering from food insecurity and are in need of humanitarian assistance.</p>
<p>The loan was granted on the condition that Sri Lanka reduce its domestic debt. But Wickremesinghe’s plans to restructure domestic debt have come at the expense of the working population. </p>
<p>The government plans to <a href="https://frontline.thehindu.com/columns/economic-perspectives-c-p-chandrasekhar-sri-lankan-debt-crisis-to-get-worse-if-imf-prescription-is-heeded/article67045396.ece">decrease interest rates</a> on sovereign bonds held by major pension funds – a cut that would amount to a loss of <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/sri-lanka/daily-mirror-sri-lanka/20230703/281698324193687">close to 30%</a> of the value of retirement funds over the next decade. </p>
<p>Militarisation is also at an <a href="https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/we-are-among-top-10-countries-militarisation-admits-sri-lankan-mp#:%7E:text=Sorry!-,%27We%20are%20among%20top%2010%20countries%27%20for,militarisation%20admits%20Sri%20Lankan%20MP&text=A%20Sri%20Lankan%20lawmaker%20has,sector%20despite%20an%20economic%20crisis.">all-time high</a>. And efforts are being made to restrict the rights of minorities living in the north and east of the country through surveillance, harassment and unlawful arrests. His victory will only ensure continuity of all this, and more. </p>
<h2>How not to hold elections</h2>
<p>For Wickremesinghe to maintain his power, he has to honour his promise of holding elections. Local government elections were initially scheduled for March 9 2023, but they were repeatedly postponed due to a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lankas-local-body-polls-postponed-indefinitely-due-to-lack-of-funds/article66725596.ece">shortage of funds</a>.</p>
<p>Their cancellation led to a spate of protests. Police used force to disperse crowds, resulting in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-sri-lanka-colombo-cb7ad21a28ad9fac237144cb9e90ca4d">15 injuries</a>. Shortly afterwards, the election commission postponed the elections indefinitely, <a href="https://www.newsfirst.lk/2023/03/03/supreme-court-issues-interim-order-on-funding-local-government-election-2023">defying</a> a Supreme Court order. </p>
<p>Wickremesinghe then pursued constitutional amendments and <a href="https://www.sundaytimes.lk/231022/columns/president-appoints-special-commission-to-drastically-change-election-laws-536547.html">appointed a commission</a> to explore changes to the electoral system. So, when the announcement that elections would be held was finally made, it was unsurprisingly received with apprehension by the electorate.</p>
<p>The act of delaying elections is an undemocratic move. But these delay tactics appear to be a smokescreen, giving Wickremesinghe time to gather support for his presidential nomination. </p>
<p>It looks as if he is aiming to secure support from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party, which is led by Mahinda Rajapaksa – a former president and the brother of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This is a calculated move as it is unlikely that Rajapaksa would have any public backing to make a reappearance as president himself. </p>
<p>In November 2023, a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/15/sri-lanka-top-court-finds-rajapaksa-brothers-guilty-of-economic-crisis">landmark ruling</a> by the Supreme Court determined that the Rajapaksa brothers, alongside former governors of the central bank and other senior treasury officials, were responsible for Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.</p>
<p>Wickremesinghe is using this extra time as a political ploy too. He has promised to implement the 13th Amendment – a provision of the 1987 <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/the-hindu-explains-what-is-the-13th-amendment-to-the-sri-lankan-constitution-and-why-is-it-contentious/article32531844.ece">Indo-Lanka Accord</a> that guarantees a measure of devolution to the country’s nine provinces. This is most definitely an attempt to appease minorities and use power sharing as a political tool to garner support.</p>
<p>But it could also have been a deliberate move to appease India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, before his visit to Colombo in January. During Jaishankar’s visit, he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/india-pledges-strong-support-sri-lankas-debt-restructuring-plan-letter-imf-2023-01-18/">supported</a> the government’s debt restructuring plans.</p>
<p>Wickremesinghe has used the delay to rush the passing of the <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/sri-lanka-online-safety-act-major-blow-to-freedom-of-expression/">Online Safety Act</a> through parliament. Created to provide protection against online harassment, abuse and fraud, this highly repressive law could threaten the right to freedom of expression that is crucial for free and fair elections.</p>
<h2>The elusive winds of change</h2>
<p>Elections are only as good as their contestants. So who are Wickremesinghe and his allies afraid of? Informal surveys reveal the rising popularity of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the leftist National People’s Power alliance. Dissanayake could pose a serious threat to the leadership of Wickremesinghe. </p>
<p>Dissanayake, who also ran for presidency in 2019, has <a href="https://www.lankaenews.com/news/3634/en">pledged</a> to eradicate corruption, hold dishonest politicians and officials accountable, and establish a fresh system of governance. These pledges resonate with the kind of political party Sri Lanka wants and needs to lift itself out of the mess it is currently in.</p>
<p>Wickremesinghe originally <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/sri-lanka-delays-first-vote-since-new-president-12203902.html">claimed</a> that elections would be held when Sri Lanka had achieved greater stability. But the real reason for the delay could have more to do with the simple fact that holding elections could potentially create a more legitimate and credible government – a prospect that Sri Lanka’s entrenched ruling elite may not welcome. </p>
<p>Demanding they take place is thus of utmost importance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thiruni Kelegama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After months of indefinite postponement, presidential and parliamentary elections will finally be held over the next two years.Thiruni Kelegama, Lecturer in Modern South Asian Studies, Oxford School of Global and Area Studies., University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233922024-02-15T15:58:50Z2024-02-15T15:58:50ZDisinformation threatens global elections – here’s how to fight back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575950/original/file-20240215-22-at0x1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=180%2C90%2C5826%2C3890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Republicans still believe the 2020 election was "stolen" from Donald Trump.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/helena-montana-nov-7-2020-protesters-1849449790">Lyonstock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With over half the world’s population heading to the polls in 2024, disinformation season is upon us — and the warnings are dire. The World Economic Forum <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf">declared</a> misinformation a top societal threat over the next two years and major news organisations <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/disinformation-unprecedented-threat-2024-election-rcna134290">caution</a> that disinformation poses an unprecedented threat to democracies worldwide. </p>
<p>Yet, some scholars and pundits have <a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-is-often-blamed-for-swaying-elections-the-research-says-something-else-221579">questioned</a> whether disinformation can really sway election outcomes. Others think concern over disinformation is just a <a href="https://undark.org/2023/10/26/opinion-misinformation-moral-panic/">moral panic</a> or merely a <a href="https://iai.tv/articles/misinformation-is-the-symptom-not-the-disease-daniel-walliams-auid-2690">symptom</a> rather than the cause of our societal ills. Pollster Nate Silver even thinks that misinformation “<a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1745556135157899389">isn’t a coherent concept</a>”.</p>
<p>But we argue the evidence tells a different story.</p>
<p>A 2023 study showed that the vast majority of academic <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/a-survey-of-expert-views-on-misinformation-definitions-determinants-solutions-and-future-of-the-field/">experts</a> are in agreement about how to define misinformation (namely as false and misleading content) and what this looks like (for example lies, conspiracy theories and pseudoscience). Although the study didn’t cover disinformation, such experts generally agree that this can be defined as intentional misinformation.</p>
<p>A recent paper <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44271-023-00054-5">clarified</a> that misinformation can both be a symptom and the disease. In 2022, nearly 70% of Republicans still <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jun/14/most-republicans-falsely-believe-trumps-stolen-ele/">endorsed</a> the false conspiracy theory that the 2020 US presidential election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. If Trump had never floated this theory, how would millions of people have possibly acquired these beliefs?</p>
<p>Moreover, although it is clear that people do not always act on dangerous beliefs, the January 6 US Capitol riots, incited by false claims, serve as an important reminder that a <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jun/30/misinformation-and-jan-6-insurrection-when-patriot/">misinformed</a> crowd can disrupt and undermine democracy. </p>
<p>Given that nearly 25% of elections are decided by a margin of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1419828112">under 3%</a>, mis- and disinformation can have important influence. One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379418303019">study</a> found that among previous Barack Obama voters who did not buy into any fake news about Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election, 89% voted for Clinton. By contrast, among prior Obama voters who believed at least two fake headlines about Clinton, only 17% voted for her. </p>
<p>While this doesn’t necessarily prove that the misinformation caused the voting behaviour, we do know that <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-trump-campaign-strategy-to-deter-millions-of-black-americans-from-voting-in-2016">millions</a> of black voters were targeted with misleading ads discrediting Clinton in key swing states ahead of the election. </p>
<p>Research has shown that such micro-targeting of specific audiences based on
variables such as their personality not only influences <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1710966114">decision-making</a> but also impacts <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0093650220961965">voting intentions</a>. A recent <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae035/7591134">paper</a> illustrated how large language models can be deployed to craft micro-targeted ads at scale, estimating that for every 100,000 individuals targeted, at least several thousand can be persuaded.</p>
<p>We also know that not only are people bad at <a href="https://www.cell.com/iscience/pdf/S2589-0042(21)01335-3.pdf">discerning</a> deepfakes (AI generated images of fake events) from genuine content, studies find that deepfakes do influence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1940161220944364">political</a> attitudes among a small target group. </p>
<p>There are more indirect consequences of disinformation too, such as eroding public <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1461444820943878">trust</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2115900119">participation</a> in elections.</p>
<p>Other than hiding under our beds and worrying, what can we do to protect ourselves?</p>
<h2>The power of prebunking</h2>
<p>Many efforts have focused on fact-checking and debunking false beliefs. In contrast, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983">“prebunking”</a> is a new way to prevent false beliefs from forming in the first place. Such “inoculation” involves warning people not to fall for a false narrative or propaganda tactic, together with an explanation as to why. </p>
<p>Misinforming rhetoric has clear <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09579265221076609">markers</a>, such as scapegoating or use of false dichotomies (there are many others), that people can learn to identify. Like a medical vaccine, the prebunk exposes the recipient to a “weakened dose” of the infectious agent (the disinformation) and refutes it in a way that confers protection. </p>
<p>For example, we created an online <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8vzm/homeland-security-funded-this-game-about-destabilizing-a-small-us-town">game</a> for the Department of Homeland Security to empower Americans to spot foreign influence techniques during the 2020 presidential election. The weakened dose? <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-cybersecurity-agency-uses-pineapple-pizza-demonstrate-vulnerability-foreign-n1035296">Pineapple pizza</a>.</p>
<p>How could pineapple pizza possibly be the way to tackle misinformation? It shows how bad-faith actors can take an innocuous issue such as whether or not to put pineapple on pizza, and use this to try to start a culture war. They might claim it’s offensive to Italians or urge Americans not to let anybody restrict their pizza-topping freedom.</p>
<p>They can then buy bots to amplify the issue on both sides, disrupt debate – and sow chaos. Our <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/breaking-harmony-square-a-game-that-inoculates-against-political-misinformation/">results</a> showed that people improved in their ability to recognise these tactics after playing our inoculation game. </p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/1132021770/false-information-is-everywhere-pre-bunking-tries-to-head-it-off-early">Twitter</a> identified false election tropes as potential “vectors of misinformation” and sent out prebunks to millions of US users warning them of fraudulent claims, such as that voting by mail is not safe. </p>
<p>These prebunks armed people with a fact — that experts agree that voting by mail is reliable — and it worked insofar as the prebunks inspired confidence in the election process and motivated users to seek out more factual information. Other social media companies, such as <a href="https://medium.com/jigsaw/prebunking-to-build-defenses-against-online-manipulation-tactics-in-germany-a1dbfbc67a1a">Google</a> and <a href="https://sustainability.fb.com/blog/2022/10/24/climate-science-literacy-initiative/">Meta</a> have followed suit across a range of issues. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2293/files/2024/02/voter-fraud-corrections-e163369556a2d7a4.pdf">paper</a> tested inoculation against false claims about the election process in the US and Brazil. Not only did it found that prebunking worked better than traditional debunking, but that the inoculation improved discernment between true and false claims, effectively reduced election fraud beliefs and improved confidence in the integrity of the upcoming 2024 elections. </p>
<p>In short, inoculation is a <a href="https://futurefreespeech.org/background-report-empowering-audiences-against-misinformation-through-prebunking/">free speech</a>-empowering intervention that can work on a global scale. When Russia was looking for a pretext to invade Ukraine, US president Joe Biden used this approach to “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2022/3/2/22955870/opinion-how-the-white-house-prebunked-putins-lies-disinformation-joe-biden-donald-trump-russia">inoculate</a>” the world against Putin’s plan to stage and film a fabricated Ukrainian atrocity, complete with actors, a script and a movie crew. Biden declassified the intelligence and exposed the plot.</p>
<p>In effect, he warned the world not to fall for fake videos with actors pretending to be Ukrainian soldiers on Russian soil. Forewarned, the international community was <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/02/26/deploying-reality-against-putin">unlikely</a> to fall for it. Russia found another pretext to invade, of course, but the point remains: forewarned is forearmed.</p>
<p>But we need not rely on government or tech firms to build <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/mental-immunity-infectious-ideas-mind-parasites-and-the-search-for-a-better-way-to-think-andy-norman?variant=39295503597646">mental immunity</a>. We can all <a href="https://interventions.withgoogle.com/static/pdf/A_Practical_Guide_to_Prebunking_Misinformation.pdf">learn</a> how to spot misinformation by studying the markers accompanying misleading rhetoric.</p>
<p>Remember that polio was a highly infectious disease that was eradicated through vaccination and herd immunity. Our challenge now is to build herd immunity to the tricks of disinformers and propagandists. </p>
<p>The future of our democracy may depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sander van der Linden consults for or receives funding from the UK Government's Cabinet Office, The U.S. State Department, the American Psychological Association, the US Center for Disease Control, the European Commission, the Templeton World Charity Foundation, the United Nations, the World Health Organization, Google, and Meta. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee McIntyre advises the UK Government on how to fight disinformation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 101020961 PRODEMINFO), the
Humboldt Foundation through a research award, the Volkswagen Foundation (grant ``Reclaiming individual autonomy and democratic discourse online: How to rebalance human and algorithmic decision making''), and the European Commission (Horizon 2020 grants 964728 JITSUVAX and 101094752 SoMe4Dem). He also receives funding from Jigsaw (a technology incubator created by Google) and from UK Research and Innovation (through EU Horizon replacement funding grant number 10049415). He collaborates with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.</span></em></p>Scientists estimate that for every 100,000 people targeted with specific political ads, several thousand can be persuaded.Sander van der Linden, Professor of Social Psychology in Society, University of CambridgeLee McIntyre, Research Fellow, Center for Philosophy and History of Science, Boston UniversityStephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2165332024-02-14T04:18:58Z2024-02-14T04:18:58ZTasmania is going to an early election. Will the country’s last Liberal state be no more?<p>After months of speculation about an early election and a battle to keep minority government alive, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff – Australia’s last remaining Liberal Premier – has called an election for March 23, three years into a four-year term.</p>
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<p>In making the announcement, Rockliff said he wanted the stability of majority government.</p>
<p>“I’m not going to allow myself or my government to be held to ransom for the next 12 months. It’s bad for Tasmania, it’s bad for Tasmanians.”</p>
<p>What issues are likely to dominate the campaign? What is the likely outcome, and will it have any implications beyond the shores of Australia’s island state?</p>
<h2>What’s been going on?</h2>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals have governed since 2014, but recently Rockliff has had to manage a series of ructions. </p>
<p>There have been seven reshuffles since the 2021 election, sparked in some cases by high profile ministerial resignations. </p>
<p>In mid-May 2023, two government back benchers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446">quit the party</a> to sit on the cross bench, citing a range of grievances. </p>
<p>Lara Alexander and John Tucker’s agreement with Rockliff to guarantee supply and confidence in the House lasted until early February when the premier issued a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-premier-rockliff-issues-early-election-threat-to-mps/103413562">second ultimatum</a> effectively demanding the rebel MPs support all government legislation.</p>
<p>Given neither of the independents were willing to cede their independence an early election became inevitable. Now, the real question is whether Tasmanian voters will blame the premier or the rebel MPs for taking them to the polls a year early?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-tasmanian-afl-team-turned-into-a-political-football-205846">How the Tasmanian AFL team turned into a political football</a>
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<p>Due to Tasmania’s 25-seat Lower House (which has been <a href="https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/47584/47_of_2022-srs.pdf">restored</a> to 35 members for this election), these events have stretched Rockliff’s talent pool and contributed to a feeling among voters that the government is approaching its used by date.</p>
<p>Rubbing salt in the wound, Labor and the Greens have relished pointing out that a party which had <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/state-of-the-state-address">promised to deliver</a> stable majority government was now in minority. Indeed, Jeremy Rockliff cited
the need restore majority government and avoid “governing with one hand tied behind my back” as a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-rockliff-stateline-analysis-early-election-trigger/103413270">justification</a> for going to the polls a year early.</p>
<p>Given Tasmania’s proportional Hare Clark electoral system, where candidates only need to secure about 15% of the vote after preferences to win a seat, it seems inevitable that forming government will require some form of power sharing or coalition arrangement. </p>
<p>This is reinforced by polling data that suggests Tasmanian voters are turning their backs on both major parties. A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">YouGov poll</a> conducted in January had both Liberal and Labor polling around 30% (31% Liberal, 27% Labor), with the Jacquie Lambie Network (20%), Greens (15%) and other independents (7%) sharing the remaining 40%.</p>
<h2>The key issues</h2>
<p>This all suggests that well established campaign strategies will once again be trotted out. </p>
<p>The government will talk up the strong (but <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/tasmanias-economy-slumps-from-first-to-sixth-in-aus/103065236">slowing</a>) economy and run a scare campaign against
minority government. This approach has served the Liberals well in the past, but their current minority status may undermine the pitch. </p>
<p>Labor, the Greens, independents, and the Jacqui Lambie Network will all point to the failure to address persistent housing, hospital, and transport challenges, as well as growing concerns about transparency and accountability.</p>
<p>One wildcard is government support for Hobart’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/11/the-devils-and-the-detail-of-the-715m-afl-stadium-dividing-tasmania">proposed waterfront AFL stadium</a>. Most Tasmanians want an AFL team, but many have concerns about the mooted funding
model in which the government covers most of the cost – and the financial risk.</p>
<p>Finally, the rise and dominance of hyper-local issues is making it hard for parties to develop and deliver a cohesive long-term strategy for the state. History shows that laundry lists of election promises don’t provide the basis for good government.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanias-reached-net-zero-emissions-and-100-renewables-but-climate-action-doesnt-stop-there-160927">Tasmania's reached net-zero emissions and 100% renewables – but climate action doesn't stop there</a>
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<h2>Federal eyes on the campaign</h2>
<p>Mainland pundits will be watching the election closely for two main reasons.</p>
<p>Firstly, the March poll will be an early test of electoral support for a more conservative Liberal party in Tasmania and beyond. While Rockliff is a moderate, the conservative faction of the Tasmanian Liberals is in the ascendancy with former long-serving federal senator Eric Abetz seeking to make a comeback in the state seat of Franklin. </p>
<p>Abetz will likely be elected, but it remains to be seen whether this occurs despite a broader swing against the Liberals. </p>
<p>If the party can retain government in Tasmania, it may provide an early indication that the national political tide is turning.</p>
<p>Secondly, the election may provide further evidence of fragmentation in Australian politics. </p>
<p>If significant numbers of Tasmanians, particularly those from regional and less well-off communities, vote for independents or minor parties, the major parties will have some serious soul searching to do. They’ll need to rethink their strategies for future state and national elections.</p>
<h2>What does the crystal ball say?</h2>
<p>Tasmanian elections are notoriously hard to predict.</p>
<p>Given the most likely outcome will be some form of coalition or power-sharing arrangement, negotiations after polling day will be just as important and interesting as the vote itself.</p>
<p>Will the Liberals be willing to form a minority government, and would Jeremy Rockliff be prepared to lead it? </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-left-in-the-tank-resigning-tasmanian-premier-peter-gutwein-deserves-credit-on-covid-and-economics-180596">‘Nothing left in the tank’: resigning Tasmanian premier Peter Gutwein deserves credit on COVID and economics</a>
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<p>After ten years in the wilderness (not such a bad place to be in this part of the world!) Labor is desperate to govern, but will be reluctant to enter into an agreement with the Greens due to past experience. They may, however, be willing to govern with the support of the Jacqui Lambie Network and/or independents.</p>
<p>Tasmanian politics has always had a unique and interesting dynamic, and the March election is unlikely to disappoint. The real test is whether members of the next Tasmanian Parliament are able to put the interests of the community above petty politics to deliver the good government Tasmanians deserve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After frontbench resignations, MPs going rogue and months of speculation, the Apple Isle is headed to the polls. What can we expect?Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRobert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229592024-02-13T13:21:38Z2024-02-13T13:21:38ZIn the face of severe challenges, democracy is under stress – but still supported – across Latin America and the Caribbean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575051/original/file-20240212-22-f6zizy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C179%2C5700%2C3615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters in El Salvador declare 'Yes to democracy. No to authoritarianism' during a demonstration on Jan. 14, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/women-walk-holding-up-a-sign-with-the-legend-yes-to-news-photo/1925903965?adppopup=true">PHOTOGRAFIA/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Threats to economic and physical security have become persistent and pervasive across Latin America and the Caribbean – and that is affecting the way people view the state of democracy in the region.</p>
<p>Those are among the findings of the latest <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/about-americasbarometer.php">AmericasBarometer</a>, a study of the experiences and attitudes of people across the Western Hemisphere that we conduct every two years along with other members of Vanderbilt University’s <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">LAPOP Lab</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">2023 round of AmericasBarometer</a>, which includes nationally representative surveys of 39,074 individuals across 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, reveals widespread pessimism and adversity, decreased satisfaction with the status quo, and yet also resilience in popular support for democracy.</p>
<h2>Elevated economic and physical insecurity</h2>
<p>Across the region, just shy of two-thirds of adults (64%) think the national economic situation in their country has worsened. Remarkably, 32% report that they have run out of food in the last three months, an indicator of food insecurity that tracks with <a href="https://www.paho.org/en/news/9-11-2023-new-report-432-million-people-suffer-hunger-latin-america-and-caribbean-and-region">estimates reported by the Pan-American Health Organization</a>.</p>
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<p>Two in five people feel unsafe in their neighborhoods, and nearly one-quarter – 22% – report having been the victim of a crime in the past 12 months. Homicide rates in the region <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-a-rise-in-latin-americas-violent-crime-a-deadly-flow-of-illegal-guns/">have also been rising</a>.</p>
<p>In brief, despite variation among different countries, the average resident of the region has been facing elevated economic and physical security challenges for over a decade, our surveys have found.</p>
<p>The factors generating and sustaining this reality are complex.</p>
<p>In the mid-2010s, a global economic <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres15_e/pr752_e.htm">commodity boom ended</a>, and the region’s economic recovery has been thwarted by <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/latin-america-economic-growth/">structural issues</a>, including <a href="https://www.undp.org/latin-america/publications/trapped-inequality-and-economic-growth-latin-america-and-caribbean">low productivity and high income inequality</a>. Economic recovery has been further hampered by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-corruption-scandal-started-in-brazil-now-its-wreaking-havoc-in-peru/2018/01/23/0f9bc4ca-fad2-11e7-9b5d-bbf0da31214d_story.html">major corruption scandals</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2023/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere-october-2023">crime and violence</a>, and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/effects-covid-19-latin-americas-economy">the COVID-19 pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>The implications of a sustained economic slump are stark. In nearly every Latin American and Caribbean country, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">food insecurity has increased in the past decade</a>.</p>
<p>The uptick in crime and insecurity is similarly driven by a range of factors, including <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf">economic crises</a> and the growth of <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-a-rise-in-latin-americas-violent-crime-a-deadly-flow-of-illegal-guns/">well-armed transnational criminal syndicates</a>. In Ecuador, as one extreme example shows, a shocking <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">36% of adults report having been the victim</a> of at least one crime in the past year, an 11-percentage-point increase from just two years ago.</p>
<h2>Disillusionment is a challenge to democracy</h2>
<p>These problems could spell trouble for democracy in the region.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-can-latin-america-halt-its-democratic-backsliding-and-how-can-the-us-help/">experts have predicted</a> that financial stress and food insecurity could contribute to political unrest in the region in the coming years. The threat of organized crime and gang violence may also <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/organized-crime-threat-latin-american-democracies">fuel a desire for authoritarian leadership</a>. </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">democracy appears to be on the defensive</a>. Within the Latin America and the Caribbean, countries such as Brazil, El Salvador, Haiti and Nicaragua have registered <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">recent turns toward authoritarianism</a>.</p>
<p>Our results show that disillusionment with the democratic status quo is strikingly high in the region, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">with only 40% thinking democracy is working</a>. This low level of satisfaction has appeared in our surveys for the past 10 years.</p>
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<p>Although the root causes are debated, disillusionment with the status quo <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/opinion/international-world/democracy-latin-america.html">fuels support for populist leaders</a> with autocratic tendencies. El Salvador stands as an example of how disillusionment can undermine democracy. President Nayib Bukele was reelected on Feb. 4, 2024, with what appears to be over <a href="https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-reelection-ef04e20d901908099f4f787b841aca89">80% of the vote</a> while overtly flaunting democratic norms.</p>
<p>During his first term, Bukele tackled high levels of gang violence with policies that <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/latin-america-erupts-millennial-authoritarianism-in-el-salvador/">undermined checks and balances and civil liberties</a>. He cheekily <a href="https://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/presidente-bukele-dice-que-es-el-dictador-mas-cool-del-mundo-619795">referred to himself on social media as a “dictator”</a>, while his running mate spoke of their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/world/americas/el-salvador-bukele-election.html">program to eliminate democracy</a>.</p>
<p>There is no denying that Bukele’s strongman approach has delivered results: Our survey finds that 84% of Salvadorans feel secure in their neighborhood, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/raw-data.php">compared with just 54% in 2018</a>, the year before Bukele was elected. Food insecurity remains a challenge, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">with 28%</a> reporting they have experienced running out of food; yet that statistic is slightly lower in 2023 than it was in 2012, in contrast to the upward trend in nearly all other countries.</p>
<h2>Democracy retains popular support</h2>
<p>Despite general gloom about how well democracy is performing, there is reason for optimism: Support for democratic governance has largely held steady over the last decade of our survey.</p>
<p>Across the region, on average, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">58% say that they believe democracy is the best form of government</a>. This is approximately the same percentage we have recorded since 2016. In all but three countries – Guatemala, Honduras and Suriname – majorities say they prefer democracy.</p>
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<p>Although the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-can-latin-america-halt-its-democratic-backsliding-and-how-can-the-us-help/">possibility of democratic backsliding looms</a>, most countries in the region have yet to undergo significant overhauls to their political or economic systems. And as former U.S. ambassador to Peru, Colombia and Brazil <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/inflection-point-challenges-facing-latin-america-and-us-policy-region">P. Michael McKinley noted</a> in a recent article, a slate of radical proposals by new leaders in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico proved unpopular and were rejected by voters, courts and legislatures. In these cases, democratic institutions are doing their job.</p>
<p>Democratic governance also delivers something that strongman populist governments do not: widespread freedom of speech.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2021/2021_LAPOP_AmericasBarometer_2021_Pulse_of_Democracy.pdf">2021 AmericasBarometer regional report</a> highlighted <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-democracy-is-waning-across-the-americas-174992">the value the public places on freedom of speech</a>. Vast majorities say they would not trade away freedom of speech for material well-being.</p>
<p>In 2023, we see that in countries with strongman populist leaders, those who disapprove of the president report strikingly high levels of concern about freedom of speech. In El Salvador, <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2023/AB2023-Pulse-of-Democracy-final-20231205.pdf">89% of government critics say they have too little freedom</a> to express their political views without fear, up from 70% in 2016.</p>
<p>In the face of significant challenges, Latin America and the Caribbean is at a crossroads between the allure of strongman populist leadership and a commitment to democratic institutions and processes. For now, at least, an enduring belief in democracy may facilitate <a href="https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-reelection-ef04e20d901908099f4f787b841aca89">efforts by leaders in</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/politics/biden-democracy-threat.html">outside the region</a> to champion and strengthen democratic governance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noam Lupu co-directs the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J. Zechmeister co-directs the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Plutowski is a staff member at LAPOP Lab, the lab responsible for the AmericasBarometer, which has been supported by grants from USAID, the US National Science Foundation, and the Inter-American Development Bank. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or any other funding agency.</span></em></p>A survey of people across 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean found widespread concern over the economy and crime.Noam Lupu, Associate Professor of Political Science and Associate Director of LAPOP Lab, Vanderbilt UniversityElizabeth J. Zechmeister, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science and Director of LAPOP, Vanderbilt UniversityLuke Plutowski, Senior Statistician and Research Lead, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221432024-02-12T23:47:06Z2024-02-12T23:47:06ZWhich day of the week gets the most people to vote? We analysed thousands of international elections to find out<p>In the aftermath of elections, one of the issues usually discussed in the media is the amount of people who turned out to vote. This is known as “participation” or “voter turnout”. </p>
<p>Several factors, such as the weather, can affect turnout. For example, the Republican primaries in Iowa on January 15 were held in very cold temperatures (subzero wind chills and a blizzard). Commentators have identified the cold as a factor that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/iowa-caucus-turnout-cold.html">negatively influenced</a> turnout, as many Republican voters decided to stay at home, even though Iowa is (almost) always cold in January. </p>
<p>The Republican primaries were held not only on a cold day, but on a working Monday. Yes, a Monday. This may not sound all that strange to the US public, who are used to voting on Tuesdays in their general elections, but it could for Australians who are used to voting on Saturdays. Australia is one of only a few countries that vote on Saturdays, along with Cyprus, Malta, Iceland, Latvia, Slovakia, Taiwan and New Zealand. </p>
<p>But, does it matter when we vote? Does it affect voter turnout? Do we know if more people vote during the weekend than, say, on a Tuesday? We analysed data from thousands of elections across the globe to find out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-had-93-million-registered-voters-but-only-a-quarter-voted-5-reasons-why-201875">Nigeria had 93 million registered voters, but only a quarter voted: 5 reasons why</a>
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<h2>What’s the most popular day to hold an election?</h2>
<p>We looked around the world to see when people vote. We collected turnout data for 3,217 national elections between 1945 and 2020 in 190 countries. We then collated the data and created an <a href="https://gdturnout.com/">original dataset</a> on turnout.</p>
<p>The first thing we can assess is which day of the week most global elections are held.</p>
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<p>The graph shows, in general, voting takes place on weekends (more than 60% of elections), with Sunday being the preferred day. The day on which the fewest elections are held is Friday.</p>
<p>We could also examine how many countries choose a given day of the week to hold their elections. The graph below shows that 94 countries chose a Sunday for polling day, while just eight went with a Friday.</p>
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<p>Interestingly, this preference for Sunday elections is not evident in countries with a significant Protestant Anglo cultural influence, in which public activities other than going to church tended to be restricted on Sundays. For example, in Australia, everything used to be closed on Sundays: bars, cinemas, shops, and there were no sporting events (the restrictions were gradually lifted from the 1980s). </p>
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<h2>How does that affect voter turnout?</h2>
<p>So is there any relationship between the day on which you vote and participation? </p>
<p>The studies currently available show varying results. For example, a 2004 <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/voter-turnout-and-the-dynamics-of-electoral-competition-in-established-democracies-since-1945/7171DEFC791953CCF4071B5614764F94">study</a> that considered 29 countries found that when the election was held on a Sunday, participation was higher. However, when the analysis was expanded to 63 countries, the day of the election did not seem to affect participation.</p>
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<p>As the graph above shows, the median voter turnout is around 70% for every day of the week. </p>
<p>For example, the average participation on Sundays was 71.6% while on Fridays it was 70%. </p>
<p>Therefore, it does not appear that the day on which the election is held is related to the level of participation. </p>
<p>This answer is simplified, of course. We are mixing democracies and authoritarian countries, places where there is mandatory voting and places where there is not, presidential and parliamentary systems, and countries that hold elections with either one or two rounds, among many other factors. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/early-and-mail-in-voting-research-shows-they-dont-always-bring-in-new-voters-194972">Early and mail-in voting: Research shows they don't always bring in new voters</a>
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<h2>Why does this matter?</h2>
<p>When to vote (and whether to vote or not) is an issue that matters. Participation is unequal and is used strategically, especially in countries where voting is not compulsory. In some countries, wealthier voters tend to show <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/701961">higher participation rates</a> than poorer voters. This is a pattern that has been <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12134">identified</a> in the United States and Europe but not necessarily in other countries such as India or Indonesia. </p>
<p>Participation is strategically used by political parties promoting (or disincentivising) voting in different ways and to differing extents. There are blatant examples of parties strategically managing voting around the world. In Kenya, polling booths in some areas have <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414020938083">more staff than others</a>, skewing how many people are able to cast a vote before closing time. In the US, strict voter ID laws have acted to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/688343">suppress the votes</a> of some racial and ethnic groups.</p>
<p>Some instances are more insidious. In 2008, Spanish campaign director Elorriaga Pisarik, in referring to undecided socialist voters, <a href="https://cadenaser.com/ser/2008/02/29/espana/1204246224_850215.html">declared</a> “if we can generate enough doubts about the economy, immigration and nationalist issues, maybe they – the socialist voters – will stay at home”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/most-voters-skipped-in-person-on-election-day-when-offered-a-choice-of-how-and-when-to-vote-192706">Most voters skipped 'in person on Election Day' when offered a choice of how and when to vote</a>
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<p>Participation also has an intrinsic value. Imagine two scenarios: one in which the candidate wins the election with 51% support, in an election that had a 90% turnout. Then imagine another election where the candidate wins by the same margin but in an election with a 30% turnout. Although both victories are valid, we tend to attribute greater legitimacy to the one that has brought more people to the polls. </p>
<p>In a year when more than half the world’s population <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-4-billion-people-are-eligible-to-vote-in-an-election-in-2024-is-this-democracys-biggest-test-220837">will vote</a> in a national election, it’s worth including data in the global discussion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ferran Martinez i Coma receives funding from Australian Research Council DP190101978. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diego Leiva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Voter turnout, or the amount of people that turn up to vote in an election, is key to upholding democratic values. Does it matter on which day a country goes to the polls?Ferran Martinez i Coma, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Griffith UniversityDiego Leiva, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224882024-02-12T13:39:54Z2024-02-12T13:39:54ZEarly polls can offer some insight into candidates’ weak points – but are extremely imprecise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573882/original/file-20240206-22-en56gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters cast their ballots in the race for governor in Kentucky on Nov. 7, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-attend-to-cast-their-ballots-at-the-shelby-news-photo/1768065950?adppopup=true">Michael Swensen/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Preelection polls have been inescapable early in the 2024 election year, setting storylines, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/often-in-error-but-still-seductive-why-we-cant-quit-election-polls-213835">they invariably do</a>, for journalists and pundits about the race for the presidency.</p>
<p>At the same time, the polls have delivered reminders that they can be less than precise indicators of outcomes — as was evident in January’s Republican caucus in Iowa and primary in New Hampshire.</p>
<p>In those contests, former President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/iowa-caucus">slightly underperformed</a> his estimated polling numbers, while rivals Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in Iowa and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in New Hampshire <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/new-hampshire">outperformed poll-based expectations</a>. </p>
<p>Although Trump won both states handily, the outcomes signaled anew that polls, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/23/polling-bad-for-you-accuracy-ubiquity/">however ubiquitous</a>, are best treated warily. That’s a point I emphasize in the soon-to-be-released, updated edition of “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520397781/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” my book about polling misfires in U.S. presidential elections. </p>
<p>Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. As <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/archibald-crossley">Archibald Crossley</a>, a pioneer of modern survey research, pointed out in the early 1970s:</p>
<p>“If election results completely agree with those of a preelection poll, it is a coincidence.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People sit around white tables in an office room and look at large black desktop screens." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573884/original/file-20240206-28-qkbvbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Members of a voting adjudication board review ballots in Phoenix on Nov. 9, 2023, after a midterm election days before in Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-an-adjudication-board-review-ballots-at-the-news-photo/1440414530?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Contradictory polls</h2>
<p>The early-in-2024 polls assessing a presumptive rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden have broadly <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4448796-biden-is-quietly-narrowing-the-race-against-trump-but-challenges-lie-ahead/">signaled a close race</a>, while on occasion presenting whiplash-inducing, contradictory indications. </p>
<p>Whiplash results can stem from differences in how pollsters conduct their surveys and how they <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html">analyze</a> and statistically <a href="https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx">adjust</a> their findings. </p>
<p>A striking example of whiplash effects came recently in surveys released within a day of each other. CNN, in a matchup poll released Feb. 1, 2024, <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24400249/cnn-poll-trump-narrowly-leads-biden-in-general-election-rematch.pdf">estimated</a> that Trump led Biden by 4 percentage points. </p>
<p>The day before, however, a Quinnipiac University <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889">poll reported</a> that Biden was ahead of Trump by 6 points.</p>
<p>It deserves mention that neither CNN nor Quinnipiac distinguished itself in polling the presidential race four years ago. CNN’s final preelection survey in 2020 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/cnn-poll-national-october/index.html">placed Biden ahead by 12 points</a>; Quinnipiac’s <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release?releaseid=3804">final poll</a> had Biden leading by 11 points. </p>
<p>Such results encouraged <a href="https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/dreaming-of-a-landslide">notions</a> that Biden was headed for a landslide victory. His popular-vote margin in 2020 was 4.5 points, in what overall was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-polls-in-2020-produced-error-of-unusual-magnitude-expert-panel-finds-without-pinpointing-cause-164759">worst performance by polls</a> since 1980.</p>
<h2>Why pay any attention to polls?</h2>
<p>The gap in the recent CNN and Quinnipiac poll results gives rise to an important question: Why, at such an early moment in the campaign, should voters pay any attention to preelection surveys? </p>
<p>Conventional wisdom, after all, has it that polls conducted many months before votes are cast possess <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/">scant predictive value</a>, given that much can influence the direction and outcome of long-running presidential campaigns.</p>
<p>When considered collectively, however, polls can offer intriguing insights about a developing race, some of which are apparent only in hindsight.</p>
<p>On Feb. 29, 2020 — to choose a random date for purposes of illustration — the average of poll results compiled by the RealClearPolitics website <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden">showed</a> Biden leading Trump by 5.4 percentage points. That spread deviated by less than a percentage point from Biden’s winning margin in November 2020.</p>
<p>At the end of February four years earlier, the RealClearPolitics polling average <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton">indicated</a> that Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 2.8 points. She won the popular vote by 2.1 points, while losing decisively in the Electoral College.</p>
<p>On Feb. 29, 2012, <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney">Barack Obama led</a> Republican contender Mitt Romney by 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Obama was reelected that year by 3.9 points.</p>
<p>It’s not as if Leap Day is some sort of magical moment of polling prophesy, however. Obama <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html">was ahead</a> of Republican rival John McCain by 4.3 percentage points on Feb. 29, 2008, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Obama defeated McCain by 7.3 points in the November election. </p>
<p>So it’s prudent not to over-interpret survey results reported early in the campaign, however accurate they may prove to be.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Multiple TV screens in a dark room show Trump and Biden facing each other, with the words 'Trump and Biden, the main event' on the screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573885/original/file-20240206-22-zel2l2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Television screens air the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in September 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/television-screens-airing-the-first-presidential-debate-are-news-photo/1228796150?adppopup=true">Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Will the polls get it right in 2024?</h2>
<p>Polls conducted months before an election can be valuable in identifying trends in voter preferences, and in sending signals about where trouble lurks — as they have for Biden in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html">key battleground states</a>, where the Electoral College may be decided in 2024. </p>
<p>According to polling conducted last month for Bloomberg media, Biden <a href="https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf">trailed</a> Trump in states that typically are competitive, such as Arizona and Georgia, and was tied in Wisconsin. </p>
<p>Outcomes in those and other swing states in November could determine who wins the presidency — much as they did in 2020. Biden carried Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, but a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency">well-distributed shift of 43,000 votes</a> would have given Trump victory in those states, producing a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. </p>
<p>The election was that close.</p>
<p>It’s certainly “a live issue” whether the polls will get it right in 2024, as an academic <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2023.2199809">journal article</a> noted not long ago.</p>
<p>The pressure is on pollsters to avoid a recurrence of the misfire in 2020, when overall they understated Trump’s support. To that end, many of them have tweaked or <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/politics/cnn-polling-new-methodology/index.html">altered</a> their methodologies following the 2020 <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">polling embarrassment</a>.</p>
<p>As I write in “<a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/9780520397781">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” discrepancies between polling results and presidential election outcomes can have unsettling effects. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/we-still-dont-know-much-about-this-election--except-that-the-media-and-pollsters-blew-it-again/2020/11/04/40c0d416-1e4a-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html">Frustration</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/06/polling-industry-blows-it-again-434591">dismay</a> and <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/">cynicism</a> about polling have all accompanied notable <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">failures</a> in taking the measure of the most-watched of all U.S. political campaigns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor Emeritus of Communication, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232872024-02-11T23:38:54Z2024-02-11T23:38:54ZPakistan’s post-election crisis – how anti-army vote may deliver an unstable government that falls into the military’s hands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574783/original/file-20240211-22-hgfmzj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C567%2C5459%2C3083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like at this pro-PTI protest, the smoke has yet to clear following Pakistan's election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-khans-pakistan-tehreek-e-insaf-party-run-from-news-photo/1995105733?adppopup=true">M Asim Khan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226228">Pakistan’s heavily anticipated general election</a> took place on Feb. 8, 2024, with citizens of the South Asian country hoping that it might prove a step toward ending the nation’s political uncertainty.</em></p>
<p><em>But several days later, it remains unclear what the result of the vote will yield. Both of the leading contenders <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/pakistans-khan-sharif-claim-election-win-despite-no-clear-majority">have claimed victory</a>, amid allegations of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be2925f4-8cb6-41fc-ae07-b00a6493014d">vote rigging and disputed ballots</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation spoke with <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/ayesha-jalal">Ayesha Jalal, an expert on Pakistan’s political history</a> who teaches at Tufts University, about what the results of the election mean and what could happen next.</em></p>
<h2>Is it clear who will govern Pakistan next?</h2>
<p>The results as they stand mean that no party is in a position to form a government on its own. So a coalition government at the federal level is unavoidable.</p>
<p>And this is where things get tricky. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI – headed by <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19844270">jailed former prime minister and Pakistani cricket hero Imran Khan</a> – has emerged as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/10/what-comes-next-2">largest party in the national assembly</a>, with around 93 candidates winning seats as “independents.” They had to run as independents because the party was <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-s-pti-barred-from-using-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-/7439552.html">barred from using its electoral symbol</a>, a cricket bat, after a three-member bench of the supreme court ruled that PTI had failed to hold intraparty elections in line with its constitution.</p>
<p>But with a total of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-vote-counts-drags-after-election-marred-by-attacks-outages-2024-02-09/">265 seats in parliament</a>, that means the PTI is still well short of the number needed to form a government on its own.</p>
<p>The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, came in second with 78 seats, a tally that is likely to be boosted by the addition of PMLN-aligned independent members of parliament. The party – headed by Shahbaz Sharif, who took over from Khan as prime minister in 2022, and his brother, former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif – is thought to have the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-army-chief-backs-ex-pm-nawaz-sharifs-call-to-form-coalition-government/articleshow/107587628.cms?from=mdr">backing of the powerful Pakistani army</a>, but it did not perform as well as expected in the election.</p>
<p>The Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, secured 54 seats, placing it third. This puts it in a position to help another party form a coalition at the federal level.</p>
<h2>With the most seats, is the PTI the front-runner to lead a coalition?</h2>
<p>The PTI has made it clear that it wants to form a government on its own and believes that its mandate was stolen. </p>
<p>Even before the final election results became known, the <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/imran-khans-party-claims-victory-in-170-seats-vows-to-form-government-report-5032101">PTI claimed it had won 170 or so seats</a> – enough for it to be able to form a government. But that appears to be without evidence.</p>
<p>This suggests the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/11/pakistan-election-results-live-wait-for-final-tally-three-days-after-vote">PTI isn’t ready to accept</a> that it did not get enough votes to form a government outright. The party instead is challenging the results, claiming that its vote was suppressed illegally, and the PTI has already formally registered complaints in 18 constituencies. </p>
<p>I believe it is more likely that a coalition will emerge between the other parties, led by the PMLN. But the question is whether that will satisfy an electorate that voted the PTI as the largest party in parliament.</p>
<h2>That doesn’t sound very stable. Is it?</h2>
<p>It isn’t. Pakistan is now entering an uncertain scenario, which is, in effect, a post-election political crisis.</p>
<p>Coalitions are not uncommon in Pakistan’s politics, but they are not easy to manage. They can <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/pakistans-new-government-struggles-consolidate-control">become unwieldy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/AtlanticCouncil/status/1756069234101133713">weak</a> and <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/10/military-disrupts-pakistan-s-democracy-once-again-pub-89724">prone to manipulation</a>.</p>
<p>It also makes it far harder for any government to push through the kind of bold economic packages needed for the country to move forward and escape the deep structural problems that are ailing the economy, such as a <a href="https://www.theigc.org/blogs/taxing-effectively/why-does-pakistan-tax-so-little">limited tax base</a> and reliance on handouts from other countries. Tackling that requires hard, potentially unpopular decisions, which are more difficult when a government is split and has a limited popular mandate.</p>
<p>The country may need another national vote before too long to secure a more stable and workable government.</p>
<h2>The election has been called flawed in the West. Is that fair?</h2>
<p>By Pakistan’s standards, the actual polling went off relatively peacefully. There was a terrible attack in the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240118-baluchistan-explosive-region-on-iran-pakistan-borderland">restive province of Baluchistan</a> on the eve of the election that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68226516">killed 28 people</a>. But fears of widespread violence on the day of the election did not materialize.</p>
<p>And while there were undue <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-election-human-rights-commission-khan-3258e2131ac83e89c2c376b476caccec">curbs on political activity</a> in the <a href="https://www.apstylebook.com/search?query=runup&button=">run-up</a> to the elections, the election itself appears to be largely credible by Pakistani standards, as the country’s foreign ministry has been <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-02-10/pakistan-hits-back-at-criticism-of-election-conduct-and-insists-cellphone-curbs-were-necessary">quick to attest</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the PTI, a party that is out of favor with Pakistan’s current senior military leadership, has done so well suggests there was no straightforward rigging across the board. There was harassment of PTI voters in some places, but it clearly wasn’t sufficient to make huge inroads into their overall vote.</p>
<p>One can’t compare Pakistan’s democracy with that of the U.S. or any other country. The problem with many outside observers of Pakistan’s politics is that they talk normatively – that is, they see Pakistan’s elections through the eyes of what is generally seen as the norm elsewhere.</p>
<p>But Pakistani politics are unique. The country is a military-dominated state, with generals that have long been involved in the country’s politics – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/pakistan-election-imran-khan.html">and elections</a>.</p>
<p>But the alternative to managed elections, no matter how messy, is martial law. And a flawed democracy is better than the military jackboot.</p>
<p>More than that, the election itself took place relatively peacefully. There has been a great deal of criticism in the West about <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/8/inherently-undemocratic-pakistan-suspends-mobile-services-on-voting-day">cellphones and mobile internet services being blocked</a> on election day. That may seem like unacceptable interference in the electoral process to outside observers. But in Pakistan, there was <a href="https://france24.com/en/20121123-pakistan-suspends-mobile-phone-service-security-ashura-shiite-terrorism">real concern about cellphones</a> being used to detonate explosive devices.</p>
<h2>Will anyone be pleased with the election result?</h2>
<p>Ironically, while the PTI’s strong showing represents an anti-establishment vote – and, more specifically, an anti-army vote – the divided national mandate means the army high command has reason to be satisfied with the outcome.</p>
<p>A split national assembly and weak government plays into the military’s hands. Should the PMLN govern as the major party in a coalition, it will be in a position of relative weakness and will need the army’s support, especially if the PTI engages in widespread protests against the election results. </p>
<h2>Are there any positives from the election?</h2>
<p>Yes, insofar as the process of seeking the peoples’ support has been allowed to continue. But the negatives are seen by most to outweigh the positives and the 2024 elections are being viewed as equally – if not more – manipulated and controlled than the 2018 exercise. </p>
<p>The turnout this time around is <a href="https://www.nation.com.pk/10-Feb-2024/voters-turnout-remain-48-percent-in-election-fafen-report">estimated to be around 48%</a>, which is lower than in 2018 when it was 51%. The demographic breakdown is encouraging. The youth played a crucial role; 44% of voters were under the age of 35. And women, too, played a larger role in the vote – more women contested and also won seats.</p>
<p>And party politics aside, the result suggests that old tactics to intimidate and suppress voters largely didn’t work. The expectation was that the spate of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/main-criminal-cases-against-pakistans-imran-khan-2024-01-31/">legal verdicts against Khan</a> just weeks before the election and his continued imprisonment might curb his popularity and mean PTI supporters would stay home. That clearly didn’t happen.</p>
<p>But what they helped deliver may only help continue Pakistan’s political malaise as it heads into a new, uncertain period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The PTI, the party of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, won the most seats of any one party – but fell short of reaching the threshold for a majority government.Ayesha Jalal, Professor of History, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228082024-02-09T12:19:12Z2024-02-09T12:19:12ZIt may be too late to stop the great election disinformation campaigns of 2024 but we have to at least try<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573598/original/file-20240205-19-3y7yaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C953%2C494&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/human-hand-holding-megaphone-vote-words-2410794649">Shutterstock/Master1305</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global liberal democracy faces a near unprecedented list of digital threats in 2024 as the increasing exploitation of AI and the rampant spread of disinformation threaten the integrity of elections in more than 60 countries. And we are woefully unprepared.</p>
<p>Votes are scheduled in India, Pakistan, Mexico and South Africa, to name but a few. A hotly contested election will be held for the European parliament in June and the US presidential elections are on the horizon in November. A general election is also due in the UK at some stage in the coming year.</p>
<p>These elections are all happening at a time when global security and the very foundations of democracy are under significant strain from the rise of populism, far-right ideologies and fascist movements. Meanwhile, trust in mainstream institutions like politicians and the media <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023">remains extremely low</a>.</p>
<p>What we might have once dismissed as outlandish conspiracy theories, such as that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/01/1228373511/heres-why-conspiracy-theories-about-taylor-swift-and-the-super-bowl-are-spreadin">Taylor Swift is secretly working for the Pentagon</a> and the Super Bowl is rigged, are gaining traction, and <a href="https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/sipr.12091">social cohesion is fraying</a> as people segregate into isolated echo chambers online. </p>
<p>There is a real danger that unless we act now to protect the public these issues will only be exacerbated by the threats posed by AI, Russian disinformation campaigns, and the invasive use of technology to target voters in the coming months.</p>
<h2>AI, deepfakes and disinformation</h2>
<p>It’s already clear that 2024 will be known as the year of the first AI elections. AI’s ability to harvest near infinite amounts of data into actionable intelligence, and produce personalised content to sway public opinion will assuredly be used by mainstream political parties seeking to gain a tactical advantage in campaigning. </p>
<p>We are already seeing parties use <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/17/how-2024-presidential-candidates-are-using-ai-in-election-campaigns.html">AI to analyse data on voting patterns</a> and targeting voters in real-time with <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-trends-youll-see-in-online-election-campaigns-this-year-222433">algorithmically-driven ad placements</a>.</p>
<p>There’s nothing inherently wrong or illegal about that, though it will alarm civil libertarians and does need to be regulated. The malevolent uses of AI by rogue actors is far more concerning. Deepfakes – false or manipulated texts, images, video and audio – are already being spread via the gaming of algorithms with the intention of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/ai-could-harm-2024-us-election-senate-intelligence-chair-warns.html">manipulating voters</a>.</p>
<p>A deepfake <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-biden-ai-deepfake-robocall-f3469ceb6dd613079092287994663db5">AI manipulated voice of US president Joe Biden</a> was already deployed in New Hampshire, urging voters not to turn out in its primary contest last month. During Slovakia’s parliamentary elections last year, a deepfake audio recording went viral on social media, falsely depicting a party leader claiming to have <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/campaign-roundup-deepfake-threat-2024-election">rigged the election and planning to increase beer prices</a>. </p>
<p>There are allegations that deepfakes were used in an attempt to sway voters in <a href="https://www.context.news/ai/are-ai-deepfakes-a-threat-to-elections">Argentina</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cr2C5aqJXyy/">New Zealand</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-rival-accuses-russia-deep-fake-campaign-ahead-presidential-vote-2023-05-12/">Turkey</a> in the past year. It’s certain we will see highly sophisticated deepfakes circulated in many countries by rogue actors in the coming months in an attempt to influence voters, sow dissent, and put politicians on the defensive.</p>
<h2>Bad actors</h2>
<p>The potential for state orchestrated disinformation campaigns is evidently also a concern in the democracies holding elections this year. US State Department officials have claimed that <a href="https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/">Russia is planning to use disinformation</a> to try to influence public opinion against Ukraine during the numerous elections scheduled across Europe this year. </p>
<p>In October last year the US sent a <a href="https://www.state.gov/russias-pillars-of-disinformation-and-propaganda-report/">declassified intelligence assessment to more than 100 governments</a> accusing Moscow of using spies, social media and sympathetic media to spread disinformation and erode public faith in the integrity of election outcomes. Just last month the German Foreign Ministry disclosed that its security agencies had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/26/germany-unearths-pro-russia-disinformation-campaign-on-x">exposed an extensive pro-Russian disinformation operation</a>, orchestrated using thousands of fake social media accounts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm">NATO</a> and the <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/library/library-blog/posts/the-fight-against-pro-kremlin-disinformation/">European Union</a> have also warned against the threats to democratic cohesion caused by Kremlin-fuelled disinformation campaigns.</p>
<p>In India, the ultra-nationalist government of Narendra Modi has been accused of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/10/india-the-disinfo-lab-discredit-critics/">running a covert disinformation operation,</a> circulating propaganda to discredit foreign critics, attack political opponents and target Muslims and other ethnic and religious minorities. Human Rights Watch <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/11/india-increased-abuses-against-minorities-critics">reports</a> increased attacks against ethnic and religious minorities including Muslims, as well as journalists and opposition leaders.</p>
<h2>Taking action</h2>
<p>Calling for action now is almost moot as it’s probably already too late. The fact that there are so many elections happening simultaneously around the world in 2024 only exacerbates the problem. However, we must at least try.</p>
<p>An urgent global effort among nations is needed to set the ground rules for how the use of AI is to be regulated, particularly around elections. The US Senate is currently considering the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/2770?q=%257B%2522search%2522:%2522deceptive+AI%2522%257D&s=1&r=1">Protecting Elections from Deceptive AI</a> Act, while <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_6473">the EU reached a tentative agreement</a> in December to regulate AI, becoming the first major global power to do so. </p>
<p>Laws need to force transparency in how AI models are trained and deployed, and require disclosure for when they are used in political campaigning. The worry is that the pace at which the technology is advancing is outpacing efforts to safeguard the public.</p>
<p>Social media platforms must be held accountable for disinformation spread. Companies like X, Meta and Alphabet have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/tech-companies-are-laying-off-their-ethics-and-safety-teams-.html">downsized teams dedicated to integrity</a>, hindering proactive disinformation countermeasures. Tough new laws are needed to force these tech monoliths to tackle disinformation and force transparency in algorithms and political ad targeting.</p>
<p>Proactive strategies like <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/global-vaccination-badnews/">pre-bunking</a> (teaching people to spot fake news) and rapid response strategies are essential to combat election interference. Media outlets also need to learn from past mistakes and balance truthful reporting with free speech, avoiding the “false balance” trap of amplifying disinformation from populist politicians masquerading as legitimate discourse.</p>
<p>Finally, we must find ways to tackle the echo chambers and conspiracy theories that threaten to derail social cohesion. Gaining back public trust in institutions such as the mainstream media and government is not going to be easy. </p>
<p>There are no magic spells to fix this overnight. But we can’t just sit back and accept the status quo. Education in media literacy is also vital to defend against disinformation.</p>
<p>But while these steps may keep the mainstream parties honest, they will do nothing to stop the bad actors. Russia, China and Iran are all likely to attempt to shape geo-political outcomes in their favour in 2024 by attempting to <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/wp-content/uploads/prod/sites/5/2023/11/MTAC-Report-2024-Election-Threat-Assessment-11082023-2-1.pdf">interfere in elections</a>.</p>
<p>The stability of global democracy may well depend on how these emerging threats are navigated in the months to come. When Donald Trump claimed the 2020 election was stolen, thousands of his supporters stormed the US Capitol. He may well be the president of the US again in November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Felle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With an unprecedented number of votes happening around the world, the information environment will be chaotic, to say the least.Tom Felle, Associate Professor of Journalism, University of GalwayLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215732024-02-08T13:21:26Z2024-02-08T13:21:26ZAI could help cut voter fraud – but it’s far more likely to disenfranchise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570452/original/file-20240120-27-wwkoa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C44%2C5802%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yeexin Richelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the year is 2029. You have been living at the same address for a decade. The postman, who knows you well, smiles as he walks to your door and hands you a bunch of letters. As you sift through them, one card grabs your attention. It says: “Let us know if you are still here.” </p>
<p>It’s an election year and the card from the electoral office is asking you to confirm you are still a resident at the same address. It has a deadline, and you may be purged from the voter list if you don’t respond to it. </p>
<p>You had read about the government using AI to detect and eliminate electoral fraud through selective querying. Is it the AI pointing fingers at you? A quick check reveals your neighbours haven’t received any such cards. You feel singled out and insecure. Why have you been asked to prove that you live where you’ve lived for so long?</p>
<p>Let’s look under the hood. You received the card because election officials had deployed an AI system that can triangulate evidence to estimate why some voters should be contacted to check whether they are still a resident at their address. It profiles voters based on whether they display the behaviour of a “typical” resident. </p>
<p>In this case, you had taken early retirement and not filed tax returns in the past few years. And you had been on vacation during the previous election in 2024. These actions led the AI to conclude that you could be lingering in the electoral list illegitimately and triggered the system to contact you. </p>
<p>This fictional story is more plausible than you might think. In 2017 and 2018, more than 340,000 Wisconsin residents <a href="https://www.wicourts.gov/ca/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=255587">received</a> a letter asking them to confirm if they needed to remain on the voter list. This was at the behest of a US-wide organisation called <a href="https://ericstates.org/">Eric</a>, which had classified these voters as “movers” – those who may have ceased to be residents. Eric used data on voting history to identify movers – but also administrative data such as <a href="https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2023-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-4">driving licence and post office records</a>. </p>
<p>Eric may not have used any sophisticated AI, but the logic it employed is very much the kind of logic that an AI would be expected to apply, only at a much larger scale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A roll of stickers reading 'I voted' next to a a picture US flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If AI is left in charge of prompting voter registrations, fewer people might end up on the roll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Barbara Kalbfleisch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The approach seemed highly effective. Only 2% of people responded, suggesting the vast majority of the people contacted were indeed movers. But <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe4498">research</a> later showed systematic demographic patterns among Eric errors. The people erroneously identified as movers (and ended up showing up to vote) were far more likely to be from ethnic minorities.</p>
<h2>AI and ‘majoritarian gerrymandering’</h2>
<p>AI algorithms are used in a variety of real-world settings to make judgments on human users. Supermarkets routinely use algorithms to judge whether you are a beer person or a wine person to send you targeted offers. </p>
<p>Every online payment transaction is being assessed by an AI in real-time to decide whether it could be fraudulent. If you’ve ever tried to buy something and ended up triggering an additional security measure – be it a password prompt or request for authentication on a mobile app – your bank’s AI was judging your attempted transaction as abnormal or suspect.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">research</a> shows that abundant AI capacity is available to make judgments on whether people’s behaviour is deviant or abnormal. To return to our opening example, in a world where early retirement is not the norm, an early retiree has the scales tipped against them.</p>
<p>Such social sorting, carried out by AI-based judgments, could be interpreted as a latent or soft form of majoritarian gerrymandering. Traditional gerrymandering is the unethical practice of redrawing electoral district boundaries to skew electoral outcomes. AI-based social sorting could disenfranchise people for behaving in a way that deviates from the way the majority behaves. </p>
<p>The patterns in the Wisconsin case should have us concerned that voters from ethnic minorities were systematically being classified as deviating from cultural norms. </p>
<h2>Who gets a vote?</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the electoral roll would include all eligible voters and exclude all ineligible voters. Clean voter lists are vital for democracy. </p>
<p>Having ineligible voters lurking on lists opens the possibility for spurious voting, skewing the result and damaging electoral integrity. On the other hand, leaving eligible voters off a list disenfranchises them and could result in election results that don’t reflect the true will of the people. </p>
<p>Ensuring access to the franchise to every eligible voter is therefore very important. To do a good job, efforts towards clean voter lists need to spread their focus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20906472">reasonably between integrity and access</a>. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, becomes whether AI is capable of doing this. As it stands today, AI is fundamentally a data-driven technology – one that is adept at looking at existing data and identifying regularities or irregularities. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">much better equipped</a> to spot issues with existing data than to identify instances of missing data. That means it is good at identifying people who may have moved from their registered address but not good at identifying new residents who have not registered to vote. </p>
<p>In a world of AI-driven electoral cleansing, you are much more likely to receive a “are you still here?” card than your new neighbour is likely to receive a “have you considered registering to vote?” card. </p>
<p>What this means for using AI to clean up voter lists is stark. It risks skewing the balance towards checking for integrity and away from enabling access. Integrity focused efforts in essence involve pointing fingers at people and putting the onus on them to confirm they are legitimate voters. Access focused efforts are like a welcoming pat on the back – an invitation to be part of the political process.</p>
<p>Even if widespread disenfranchisement doesn’t happen, states still risk undermining trust in elections by using AI on a larger scale. It could lead voters to feel electoral offices are obsessively oriented towards fault-finding and much less interested in democratic inclusion. And at a time when trust in elections is needed more than ever, that perception could be just as damaging as actually cutting people from electoral rolls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Simoes receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 945231; and the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Padmanabhan and Muiris MacCarthaigh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.Deepak Padmanabhan, Senior Lecturer in AI ethics, Queen's University BelfastMuiris MacCarthaigh, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, Queen's University BelfastStanley Simoes, Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher, School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210672024-02-07T13:10:59Z2024-02-07T13:10:59ZIndonesians head to polls amid concerns over declining democracy, election integrity and vote buying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572044/original/file-20240129-28-cofmi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C603%2C5498%2C3050&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gearing up for the election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/058ccdda469046b4a05ab184f9fe9154/photo?Query=indonesia%20election&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1572&currentItemNo=3">Achmad Ibrahim/Associated Press</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a record year for <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-4-billion-people-are-eligible-to-vote-in-an-election-in-2024-is-this-democracys-biggest-test-220837">elections around the world</a>, Indonesia’s Feb. 14, 2024, vote is set to be one of the largest – and it will be one of the sternest tests for democracy’s progress.</p>
<p>Voters are expected to turn out in record numbers to choose between some 20,000 national, provincial and district parliamentary representatives in what will be the world’s largest single-day election – unlike, say, in the U.S., Indonesia does not allow votes to be cast in advance.</p>
<p>While the scale of the election might seem to suggest a vibrant state of democracy in Indonesia, multiple factors – including a voting system susceptible to money politics and vote buying, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-campaign-violation-gibran-prabowo-mahfud-muhaimin-4024331">alleged violations of election rules</a>, the sheer number of down-ballot candidates, and a cacophony of political messages on social media – make it difficult for voters to know what they are voting for and to effectively express their preferences. </p>
<p>Indonesia’s General Elections Commission reports that as many as <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1743779/over-204-million-voters-in-2024-general-elections-electoral-roll-kpu-declares">204 million voters</a> are enrolled for the election, with about 114 million of them under 40 years of age. Polls say the <a href="https://s3-csis-web.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/doc/Final_Rilis_Survei_CSIS_26_September_2022.pdf?download=1">top issues for younger voters</a> include unaffordable basic goods, lack of employment opportunities, high poverty rates, expensive health services and poor education quality and service.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are concerns among many observers that Indonesia’s democracy has been <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/03/23/is-indonesias-democracy-really-backsliding.html">backsliding in recent years</a>.</p>
<h2>Southeast Asia’s largest economy</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JhojdBgAAAAJ&hl=en">As an expert</a> on Indonesia’s international relations, I see how the election has implications far beyond the sprawling archipelago’s borders and comes at a crucial time. Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy but faces getting caught in what economists call the <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/escaping-middle-income-trap-innovate-or-perish#:%7E:text=The%20middle%2Dincome%20trap%20captures,productivity%20is%20relatively%20too%20low">middle-income trap</a>, where its wages are too high but productivity too low to be competitive. Indonesia also plays a crucial geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific. Its growing <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/05/13/why-and-how-indonesia-must-reduce-its-economic-dependence-on-china/">economic dependence on China</a> and regional tensions over <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-chinese-warships-near-miss-in-taiwan-strait-hints-at-ongoing-troubled-diplomatic-waters-despite-chatter-about-talks-207099">territorial disputes in the South China Sea</a> have <a href="https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/when-goods-cross-borders/indonesia-should-be-at-the-heart-of-us-indo-pacific-policy">foreign policy observers and investors</a> watching the election closely.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men stand smiling and waving." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidates. from left, Anies Baswedan and running mate Muhaimin Iskandar; Prabowo Subianto and running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka; and Ganjar Pranowo with running mate Mahfud Mahmodin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/0fcba3a1931049e0a72438f9745f3994/photo?Query=President%20Widodo%27s%20son,%20Gibran%20Rakabuming,&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=50&currentItemNo=21">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. government sees Indonesia’s democracy as critical to regional stability, and at least for the last two decades, <a href="https://id.usembassy.gov/president-joseph-r-biden-and-president-joko-widodo-announce-the-u-s-indonesia-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/">U.S.-Indonesia relations</a> have been built on shared values of democracy. Yet the election takes place against a backdrop of increasing democratic fragility.</p>
<p>Telltale signs include government attempts <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1253615/higher-education-ministry-contacts-rectors-over-student-protests">to restrict critics and dissent</a> in a show of executive overreach, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/08/chief-justice-demoted-over-gibran-ruling.html">changes in election laws</a> to tilt the playing field toward favored candidates and so-called “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/23/indonesian-leaders-son-brushes-off-nepo-baby-tag-in-solid-debate-showing">nepo babies</a>,” and voter <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">intimidation</a>.</p>
<p>Voters will cast their ballots for one of <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-anies-baswedan-ganjar-pranowo-prabowo-subianto-4031946">the three presidential candidates</a> vying to be the next president: <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/30/the-economist-revises-down-prabowos-electability-to-47.html">Prabowo Subianto</a>, a former military officer and politician who is running for president for the third time; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-presidential-hopeful-ganjar-projects-grassroots-appeal-popularity-2023-12-13/">Ganjar Pranowo</a>, a former governor of Central Java; and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-presidential-hopeful-promises-change-end-patronage-politics-2024-01-05/">Anies Baswedan</a>, an academic, and former culture and education minister and governor of Jakarta. </p>
<p>The three candidates <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20231026141749-37-483935/visi-misi-ganjar-mahfud-anies-imin-download-link-pdf">all promise</a> to improve living standards, accelerate economic growth and infrastructure development, protect Indonesia’s resources against foreign exploitation and territorial sovereignty, promote environmental sustainability, advance human rights and democracy, and eliminate corruption.</p>
<p>Despite their similar campaign talking points, there are some differences. On trade, for example, Subianto favors protectionism. Baswedan and Pranowo support a market-based approach and a balanced approach between protecting national industries and fostering foreign investment.</p>
<p>On one of the main issues of the day, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/28/indonesia-to-move-capital-from-jakarta-to-nusantara-but-it-wont-be-easy.html">relocation of the capital city of Indonesia</a>, Baswedan is the most critical of the candidates. He has <a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/election-willdetermine-new-capital-fate-01262024140057.html">vowed to review the project</a>, but is unlikely to stop the move even if he wins, as the plan is already formalized into law.</p>
<h2>Massive spending and vote buying</h2>
<p>While the presence of many candidates – for example, there are 300 in <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/11/jakarta-sees-tight-competition-for-2024-legislative-race.html">Jakarta</a> alone, including celebrities and cabinet ministers from 17 parties, vying for 21 seats in the House of Representatives – could suggest a vibrant democracy, the <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/12/07/en-biaya-politik-caleg-hadapi-pemilu-2024-membengkak">massive spending</a> among them increases the risk of vote buying. Furthermore, due to the current <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/269187/kpu-committed-to-open-list-proportional-representation-system-dpr">open-list</a> proportional voting systems, candidates must compete against their party peers to win a seat. This system creates a fierce competition among candidates and increases the chance of vote buying. Political scientist <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/rof2024/burhanuddin-muhtadi/">Burhanuddin Muhtadi</a> argues that the problem affects 10% of voters and may be enough of an issue to sway the outcome of elections. In addition, celebrity candidates and those with a large social media following and deep pockets will have an easier time gaining support.</p>
<p>A glut of campaign messaging does not lead to a more informed citizenry. Instead, citizens are heavily targeted by <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2024/01/indonesia-election/index.html?shell">social media with populist overtones</a>. And despite the digital bombardment, there is actually little information about party platforms, candidate track records or policy details – a problem when the sheer number of candidates is so large.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Political candidates shake hands in Jakarta, Indonesia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, left, with running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/91f8aacec6cd40e981f597776e81744f/photo?Query=indonesia%20joko%20and%20son&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=95&currentItemNo=2">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Financial irregularities tied to election funding have also dogged parties across the political spectrum, leading the <a href="https://www.idea.int/node/683">Association for Election and Democracy</a> to cite a worrisome trend of citizens coming to see money politics as acceptable within a competitive democracy. The other challenge during the election campaign is the <a href="https://kemitraan.or.id/press-release/buruknya-akuntabilitas-laporan-dana-kampanye-problem-serius-pengaturan-penegakan-aturan-dan-komitmen-para-capres-cawapres/">lack of accountability and transparency</a> for campaign funding.</p>
<h2>A slide toward autocracy</h2>
<p>The decline in the quality of Indonesia’s democracy has been years in the making. A 2023 report by <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">V-Dem Democracy Institute</a> highlights several factors in its slide toward autocracy. Limited freedom to publicly criticize the government is one reason, and numerous examples of intimidation and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/10/16/students-continue-to-protest-jobs-law-alleged-police-brutality.html">attacks on students</a>, academics and <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1818020/stop-intimidation-against-activists">activists</a> who are critical of the administration have been documented.</p>
<p><a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/607612">Strategic election manipulation</a> is another form of backsliding, encompassing a range of activity geared toward tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents. In a notable case, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/jokowi-indonesias-kingmaker-works-keep-influence-after-election-2023-10-14/">President Joko Widodo’s</a> 36-year-old son, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3249354/indonesia-election-2024-gibran-resorts-gotcha-questions-jargon-vp-debate-bid-trip-rivals">Gibran Rakabuming Raka</a>, mayor of Solo, was cleared by a constitutional court ruling to run for vice president. The ruling, issued by a court led by the president’s brother, stated that the age restriction for presidential candidates that they should be at least 40 years old does not apply to those who have served as mayors, regents or governors. While Widodo claims not to have intervened in the ruling, there is a clear benefit to his family.</p>
<p>Electoral intimidation is a problem disproportionately affecting civil servants and people in poor neighborhoods. <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">Power brokers</a> have reportedly told some civil servants to vote for particular candidates, intimating that refusal will mean being asked to serve in some remote places in Indonesia. People in areas with high poverty rates <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">have allegedly</a> received threats that cash transfer programs that would benefit the community will be revoked unless they vote for certain candidates. </p>
<p>All of this takes place as younger Indonesians <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/10/10/analysis-csis-survey-shows-young-voters-want-change-not-prabowo.html">look for change and better lives</a>. Their hopes for a democratic future where issues important to them can be solved, as well as securing Indonesia’s role on the global stage as a democratic partner ensuring regional stability, ride on the outcome of the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angguntari Ceria Sari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As many as 204 million Indonesians are registered to vote in what will be the world’s largest single-day election in 2024.Angguntari Ceria Sari, Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik ParahyanganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210922024-01-29T13:36:08Z2024-01-29T13:36:08ZEl Salvador voters set to trade democracy for promise of security in presidential election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571693/original/file-20240126-23-8oa48x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C424%2C3165%2C1990&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">El Salvador President Nayib Bukele looks set to be reelected.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-of-el-salvador-nayib-bukele-looks-on-during-the-news-photo/1801400527?adppopup=true">Hector Vivas/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is little doubt who will win the El Salvador presidential election when <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-el-salvador/">voters go to the polls</a> on Feb. 4, 2024.</p>
<p>Incumbent <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0241105c-ab30-40f6-ac87-b879ffb6c84c">Nayib Bukele</a> has the initiative heading into the vote, having made a series of eye-catching decisions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/04/el-salvador-anti-corruption-candidate-nayib-bukele-wins-presidential-election">since coming to power</a> in 2019, such as making <a href="https://elfaro.net/en/202311/el_salvador/27164/Crypto-Turmoil-Pushes-Bukele-Back-Toward-Traditional-Financial-Institutions.htm">bitcoin legal tender</a>, issuing <a href="https://elfaro.net/tuits/los-tuits-eliminados/">policy through social media</a>, and most significantly, declaring a nationwide “<a href="https://www.wola.org/2022/09/corruption-state-of-emergency-el-salvador/">state of emergency</a>” in response to gang violence.</p>
<p>The Bitcoin experiment has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/el-salvadors-bitcoin-holdings-down-60percent-to-60-million-one-year-later.html">all but failed</a>. But that hasn’t dented his prospects of victory.</p>
<p>The reason: A majority of Salvadorans <a href="https://uca.edu.sv/iudop/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Bol.-Eva-de-anio-2023.pdf">feel safer</a> than they have in years. Under Bukele’s <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/09/12/the-rise-of-nayib-bukele-el-salvadors-authoritarian-president">authoritarian rule</a>, the homicide rate has officially decreased, many street vendors no longer pay a gang tax, and taxi drivers aren’t as worried about hijackings or assault. And that has led to Bukele’s widespread popularity across the country. In an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvadors-bukele-looks-set-cruise-controversial-presidential-reelection-poll-2024-01-16/">early January 2024 poll</a>, the incumbent was ahead by 71%. He is, in other words, a shoo-in.</p>
<p>But this sense of safety has come at a cost. Bukele’s program to curb crime has led to an erosion of civil rights – <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-07-30/bukeles-hell-in-el-salvador-a-country-submerged-in-a-police-state.html">tens of thousands of people have been detained</a> in a crackdown on organized crime, with those imprisoned <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/el-salvador">subjected to overcrowding and alleged human rights abuses</a>, including torture.</p>
<p>Critics also point to the <a href="https://elfaro.net/en/202105/columns/25464/This-Is-How-a-Republic-Dies.htm">breakdown of democratic checks and balances</a> across government since Bukele first took office. He <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvadors-appointment-new-judges-raises-fears-power-grab-2021-06-30/">replaced members of the judiciary</a> with allies, and he is running for president again despite constitutional law banning a <a href="https://www.cispes.org/article/why-consecutive-reelection-unconstitutional-el-salvador">second consecutive presidential term</a>.</p>
<p>So when Salvadorans cast their votes, they’ll be faced with the question: Is the short-term security Bukele is offering worth the <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/latin-america-erupts-millennial-authoritarianism-in-el-salvador/">serious backslide</a> on democracy taking place in El Salvador?</p>
<h2>Presidential abuse of power</h2>
<p>Bukele’s rollback of democratic norms has been relentless. As soon as his political party Nuevas Ideas won a supermajority in the legislature, he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvadors-appointment-new-judges-raises-fears-power-grab-2021-06-30/">purged the Supreme Court of five justices</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56970026">removed the attorney general</a>, actions that have allowed him to reinterpret articles of the Salvadoran Constitution that ban him from running in this election.</p>
<p>There are, in fact, six articles of the constitution prohibiting presidents from serving a second consecutive term in office. Bukele specifically took aim at <a href="https://www.cispes.org/article/why-consecutive-reelection-unconstitutional-el-salvador">Article 152</a>, which stipulates that presidents can’t seek immediate reelection if they served in the previous term for more than six months.</p>
<p>Bukele circumvented the rule by going on <a href="https://www.lawg.org/international-organizations-echo-salvadoran-civil-society-bukele-stepping-down-as-president-of-el-salvador-does-nothing-to-change-the-unconstitutionality-of-his-reelection-bid/">leave from presidential duties</a> on Nov. 30, 2023, a move widely regarded as a stunt since he was still campaigning and maintaining the trappings of his office, such as <a href="https://elfaro.net/en/202312/opinion/27182/Fraud-upon-Fraud-Bukele-Is-Not-on-Presidential-Leave.htm">presidential immunity and a security detail</a>. He and members of his administration also pointed to a <a href="https://elfaro.net/en/202312/opinion/27182/Fraud-upon-Fraud-Bukele-Is-Not-on-Presidential-Leave.htm">so-called “hidden article” in the constitution</a> that would allow him to run again, but international <a href="https://www.state.gov/salvadoran-re-election-ruling-undermines-democracy/">legal experts have refuted</a> such a loophole.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://emerson.edu/faculty-staff-directory/mneesha-gellman">scholar who studies comparative politics and violence</a> in the Global South and the U.S, I’ve been following the plight of democracy in El Salvador for many years. My <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y9F6SeYjZUkoF-T4VaDBOXMzQIjQa8WW/view">working paper</a> in 2022 on Bukele’s democratic backsliding notes, in addition to his remaking of the Supreme Court and firing of the attorney general, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/09/02/el-salvador-new-laws-threaten-judicial-independence">legislation that forced into retirement</a> judges and prosecutors over the age of 60. This <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/el-salvador">stalled the trial of the El Mozote massacre of 1981</a>, a lingering trauma from the Salvadoran civil war. </p>
<h2>El Salvador’s history of violence</h2>
<p>Bukele was elected following two presidents representing the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, or FMLN, a former rebel group that’s now a recognized political party. Like Bukele, both of these presidents tried for years to <a href="https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/negotiating-gangs-el-salvador-truce/#:%7E:text=The%20gang%20truce%20in%20El,of%20the%20initiative%20are%20undeniable">negotiate with gangs</a> while cracking down on them, providing <a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/evidence-of-gang-negotiations-belie-el-salvador-presidents-claims/">perks for incarcerated gang members</a> in exchange for state input about how and where gang violence transpired. Neither was successful.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wears a hat showing the image of President Nayib Bukele." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571699/original/file-20240126-15-qw96fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nayib Bukele has many supporters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-wears-a-headband-with-nayib-bukeles-electoral-campaign-news-photo/1782807423?adppopup=true">Aphotografia/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In fact, for the majority of Salvadorans, physical violence has been a frequent part of daily life for generations. <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Democratization-and-Memories-of-Violence-Ethnic-minority-rights-movements/Gellman/p/book/9781138597686#:%7E:text=Democratization%20and%20Memories%20of%20Violence%20draws%20on%20six%20case%20studies,consideration%20of%20minority%20rights%20agendas.">I have written</a> about the 1932 massacre of Indigenous and working-class people, and the <a href="https://cja.org/where-we-work/el-salvador/">civil war</a> from 1980 to 1992 as critical junctures that inform contemporary Salvadoran politics. The war forced families to flee to the U.S., where <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/central-america/el-salvador/life-under-gang-rule-el-salvador">boys and young men formed gangs for protection</a> and then were eventually deported back to El Salvador. <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/el-salvador">Gang violence, as well as state violence</a>, has made El Salvador unsafe in the 21st century.</p>
<h2>Bukele’s safety agenda and violation of civil rights</h2>
<p>Bukele’s “territorial control plan,” launched in 2019 shortly after he was elected, did little to diminish this gang violence. So after gangs <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089390179/el-salvador-grabs-1-000-gang-suspects-in-response-to-weekend-killings">murdered 87 people in a single weekend</a> in March 2022, Bukele declared a “state of emergency.” Aimed not only at gangs <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/el-salvador-press-censorship-gang-law">but journalists and anyone Bukele considers opposition</a>, the state of emergency has, for the past 22 months, seen the suspension of many constitutional rights – including the right to assemble, due process, and privacy in telecommunications.</p>
<p>By the end of 2023, over <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-07-30/bukeles-hell-in-el-salvador-a-country-submerged-in-a-police-state.html">74,000 people were incarcerated</a> in the crackdown, with less than a third of those arrested during the state of emergency estimated to be gang members. Many others were charged without proper evidence – on the testimony of neighbors, on the basis of prior arrest records, or simply for having tattoos, as many Salvadorans told me in my 2024 fieldwork.</p>
<p>And once in prison, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/el-salvador">human rights abuses abound</a>, including torture, inadequate food supply and poor sanitation, according to human rights groups. Family members of incarcerated people I’ve interviewed say that to keep their loved ones alive, they are expected to send food, clothing and hygiene products via packets into the prison at a cost of $100-$300 per month, despite a national monthly minimum wage of just $365. </p>
<p>Meanwhile women, children, LGBTQ+ people and others across El Salvador continue to be victimized.</p>
<p>My interviews in January 2024 in various parts of El Salvador suggest that police and <a href="https://www.laprensagrafica.com/elsalvador/Procuradora----condena-violacion-de-nina-por-militares-20230929-0082.html">military personnel</a> have <a href="https://www.elsalvador.com/noticias/nacional/sargento-violo-nina-13-anos-amenazo-regimen-excepcion/1092614/2023/">taken over previously gang-held terrain</a>, replacing gang violence with state violence.</p>
<h2>Public opinion and a return to dictatorship</h2>
<p>Many Salvadorans say they <a href="https://insightcrime.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/El-SalvadorsPerpetual-State-of-Emergency-How-Bukeles-Government-Overpowered-Gangs-InSight-Crime-Nov-2023.pdf">feel safer</a> since Bukele instated a state of emergency – now called the “state of exception.” A December 2023 poll found that most citizens are now more <a href="https://uca.edu.sv/iudop/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/PPT-Ev-Anio-2023.pdf">concerned with the economy</a>. Bukele timed announcement of his crackdown well, right after his <a href="https://www.laprensagrafica.com/elsalvador/Encuesta-UCA-regimen-es-el-pilar-de-popularidad-de-Bukele-20230119-0087.html">popularity began to wane</a>.</p>
<p>But more recently, I’ve spoken with dozens of civil society stakeholders – including human rights workers, journalists, former lawmakers and current government employees – who say that the <a href="https://ips-dc.org/report-state-of-deception-human-rights-under-bukele/">picture of an eminently safer El Salvador</a> doesn’t reflect the lives of Salvadorans living behind bars or in communities exploited by police and armed forces. </p>
<p>Still, on Feb. 4, Salvadorans are likely to overlook those abuses and cast their vote in favor of security for the majority. And, to some extent, who can blame them? After years of civil war and then gang war, many Salvadorans are traumatized by violence. The promise of safety is compelling, even if it means living in a dictatorship. </p>
<p>But if and when the international community recognizes the legitimacy of the election, it will do so in the face of severe constitutional and procedural irregularities. Bukele’s efforts to dismantle those safeguards have already left El Salvador’s regime on shaky ground. A fresh mandate by the electorate might push Bukele further down an authoritarian path.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mneesha Gellman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mass arrests and the suspension of constitutional rights have been a feature of President Nayib Bukele’s tenure. A fresh mandate from voters will likely entrench his hardline approach.Mneesha Gellman, Associate Professor of Political Science, Emerson CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.