tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/emissions-targets-13547/articlesEmissions targets – The Conversation2022-12-22T03:39:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1957222022-12-22T03:39:21Z2022-12-22T03:39:21ZWhy electric vehicles won’t be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon<p>Progress towards Australia’s new <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102">emissions target</a> of a 43% reduction by 2030 (from 2005 levels) has been decidedly mixed. Emissions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-march-2022-quarterly-update">in the electricity sector</a> have fallen in recent years, but the upward trend in another major sector, transport, is <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/news/authority-releases-advice-annual-climate-change-statement">set to continue</a>. </p>
<p>There is a widespread view, <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/our-transport-future/climate-change/transport-sector-emissions-reduction-pledge">implicitly</a> <a href="https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government-action-climate-change">encouraged</a> in some states, that transport emissions can simply be reduced by more use of electric vehicles powered from renewable energy sources. On the contrary, reducing overall transport emissions will require policy reform and infrastructure investment on many fronts. </p>
<p>Recent decades, though, have been marked by a lack of action. The 2022 <a href="https://www.aceee.org/international-scorecard">International Energy Efficiency Scorecard</a> shows how far Australia has fallen behind. Overall, Australia <a href="https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2022_International_Scorecard/Australia%20One-Pager.pdf">ranked 18th</a> out of 25 of the world’s largest energy users, and 23rd for transport.</p>
<p>On five of the nine criteria for assessing transport, Australia scored zero points. These were: no 2025 fuel economy standards; poor on light vehicle average fuel economy; low electric vehicle sales share; no heavy vehicle fuel economy standard; and no smart freight programs. </p>
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<p>The federal government has acknowledged effective vehicle fuel-efficiency standards are long overdue. And, as the source of <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2021/australian-infrastructure-and-transport-statistics-yearbook-2021">45% of all pre-COVID transport emissions</a>, reducing emissions from cars is important – but it’s only part of the solution. </p>
<p>It will take years for more efficient cars and electric vehicles to replace the current less energy-efficient ones. <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-march-2022-quarterly-update">Recent experience</a> also suggests more than high petrol prices will be needed to reduce vehicle travel and emissions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-failing-on-electric-vehicles-california-shows-its-possible-to-pick-up-the-pace-189871">Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it's possible to pick up the pace</a>
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<h2>What more can be done?</h2>
<p>Reducing transport emissions was the subject of reports produced by the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2009/wp_073">up to 2009</a>. Proposals included “no regrets” measures such as more freight on rail, while effective road pricing reform (to strengthen the connection between costs to drivers and travel times and distance) was judged to “offer the largest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport”. </p>
<p>Only a few measures were implemented, such as energy labelling of cars and 50km/h urban speed limits. As a result, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2021/australian-infrastructure-and-transport-statistics-yearbook-2021">BITRE data</a> show overall transport emissions (excluding electric rail) increased some 19% from 2005 to 2019 (before temporary COVID-related reductions). There were increases of 16% from cars, 16% from articulated trucks and 50% from domestic aviation.</p>
<p>To turn this around, the federal government has set up a Net Zero Unit. The minister responsible for transport, Catherine King, <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/net-zero-unit-drive-transport-and-infrastructure-emissions-reduction">acknowledged</a>: </p>
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<p>“Achieving our government’s emissions reduction targets on the path to net zero by 2050 will require concerted action to drive emissions lower across the transport sector.” </p>
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<p>In a recent <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">consultation paper</a> for the forthcoming National Electric Vehicle Strategy, the ministers’ foreword noted:</p>
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<p>“Today, Australians are being sold some of the highest-emitting cars in the world. On average, new passenger vehicles in Australia have around 20% higher emissions than the United States, and around 40% higher emissions than in Europe. We need to catch up to the rest of the world when it comes to transport emissions.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health-190743">We may be underestimating just how bad carbon-belching SUVs are for the climate – and for our health</a>
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<h2>What’s being done overseas?</h2>
<p>Measures that have worked overseas include better public transport (which was effective during the 2010s in Australia) and congestion pricing (charging drivers for travel at peak traffic times) in major cities.</p>
<p>A further measure, recommended 20 years ago by state transport ministers, was to move from high annual registration fees to higher fuel excise. This would mean people who drive their cars less are not subsidising those who drive their cars more. New Zealand has adopted this approach. </p>
<p>New Zealand has also adopted an <a href="https://www.hud.govt.nz/news/aotearoa-new-zealands-first-emissions-reduction-plan-erp-released">Emissions Reduction Plan</a> that includes “a focus on reducing reliance on cars and delivering considerable change in walking, cycling and public transport. The transport actions set a target to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled by the light vehicle fleet by 20%, by 2035.”</p>
<p>This ambitious target is complemented by other measures, including land-use planning to reduce the distances people need to travel to get to work, services and amenities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transport-decarbonisation-plan">Britain</a> and <a href="https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-emissions_en">Europe</a> have introduced similar strong measures.</p>
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<h2>Shifting freight to rail and sea</h2>
<p>As has often <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Rural_and_Regional_Affairs_and_Transport/RoadTransportIndustry/Report">been said</a>, “without trucks, Australia stops”. However, the convenience of moving freight by trucks, which has been boosted over the past three decades by a much-improved road system and larger and heavier trucks, comes with many costs.</p>
<p>One cost is the impact of more trucks on the roads. A further cost is higher emissions. Trucks <a href="https://www.railfutures.org.au/2017/07/submission-to-inquiry-into-national-freight-and-supply-chain-priorities/">use three times the energy</a> and so produce three times the emissions of a given freight task done by rail or sea.</p>
<p>I have calculated that if rail were to regain a 50% share of the freight on the Sydney-Melbourne route alone, it would cut emissions by over 300,000 tonnes a year. This is the equivalent of taking about 100,000 cars off the road.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/instead-of-putting-more-massive-trucks-on-our-roads-we-need-to-invest-in-our-rail-network-172491">Instead of putting more massive trucks on our roads, we need to invest in our rail network</a>
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<h2>Keeping aviation emissions in check</h2>
<p>Although domestic flights were producing just 9% of all pre-COVID transport emissions in Australia, a 50% increase in aviation emissions from 2005 to 2019 demands government action to limit further growth. This will be a challenge given Australians’ reliance on flying between capital cities and to regional centres.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-planes-are-coming-short-hop-regional-flights-could-be-running-on-batteries-in-a-few-years-190098">Electric planes are coming: Short-hop regional flights could be running on batteries in a few years</a>
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<p>Other countries such as France are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2022/dec/07/should-australia-follow-france-and-bid-adieu-to-short-haul-flights">limiting short-haul air travel</a> where rail is an alternative. </p>
<p>Globally, as the International Energy Agency has <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">noted</a>: </p>
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<p>“Rail transport is the most energy-efficient and least carbon-intensive way to move people and second only to shipping for carrying goods.” </p>
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<p>One corridor where an improved train service competes with regional aviation is Bundaberg to Brisbane. On many other corridors, such as Canberra to Sydney, more frequent and faster trains would be well received and would reduce emissions.</p>
<p>In the longer term, a dedicated high-speed rail service – electric trains moving at over 250km per hour – will be needed between Melbourne and Sydney. In the medium term, track upgrades and tilt trains offer scope to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/15/sydney-melbourne-rail-track-upgrade-is-cheaper-quicker-way-to-slash-journey-times-says-expert">cut the travel time</a> from 11 to about six hours within four years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-ever-its-time-to-upgrade-the-sydney-melbourne-railway-187169">More than ever, it’s time to upgrade the Sydney–Melbourne railway</a>
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<p>Australia needs to act with urgency on all fronts – cars, freight and aviation – to get transport emissions on track for net zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Railway Technical Society of Australasia and the Rail Futures Institute. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>Converting to electric cars is going to take time. With transport being Australia’s fastest-growing source of emissions, action on all fronts – road, rail, sea and aviation – is needed.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929412022-10-20T04:33:03Z2022-10-20T04:33:03ZVictoria signals end of coal by announcing a new 95% renewable target. It’s a risky but vital move<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490784/original/file-20221020-20-3hzq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C4188%2C2752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s the end of the line for coal in Victoria, after Victorian Premier Dan Andrews today announced plans for 95% renewables within 13 years. Until now, the industrialised state has been aiming for 50% by 2030. </p>
<p>But it’s also the end of the line for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">ailing</a>, mostly privatised, energy market. Public ownership is back in vogue – in a recognition the energy market cannot deliver the transformation required. The Andrews Labor government would bring back the State Electricity Commission (SEC) if re-elected next month and use this to build new renewable energy projects. </p>
<p>At a national level, Labor is aiming for 82% renewables by 2030. So is Victoria’s target even possible? Yes – if the state government can overcome the major stumbling block of transmission. Building solar and wind isn’t the bottleneck – it’s the grid that isn’t fit for purpose. </p>
<p>Still, it’s an encouraging sign that the clean energy floodgates are opening in our eastern coal states. Queensland is <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/about/newsroom/queensland-energy-and-jobs-plan">now aiming</a> for 70% renewables in a decade. New South Wales is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-make-single-biggest-investment-in-renewable-energy-20220609-p5asmc.html">forging ahead</a> with renewable energy zones. </p>
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<h2>Dizzying pace of change</h2>
<p>Why are governments boosting renewable ambitions so dramatically? Several reasons. In Victoria, there’s an election campaign under way. Labor is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/11/guardian-essential-poll-daniel-andrews-in-strong-position-for-labor-victory-in-victorian-election">widely expected</a> to win a fourth term – and infrastructure is one of its strengths. This offers an exciting vision of the future – and any political blowback from cost overruns will come later on. </p>
<p>But other changes are afoot. Operators of ailing and ageing coal plants are looking for the exit. The huge Loy Yang A power plant – responsible for 13% of the state’s emissions – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">will close in 2035</a>, a decade ahead of schedule. </p>
<p>Climate change is intensifying, with unprecedented floods in Australia and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-scientist-on-the-planets-simultaneous-disasters-from-pakistans-horror-floods-to-europes-record-drought-189626">Pakistan</a>, unprecedented droughts in America’s west and China, and marine heatwaves <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-10-key-culprit-alaska-crab-mass.html">devastating fisheries</a>. Solar is now the cheapest form of newly built power. </p>
<p>Elsewhere around the world, offshore wind turbine technology has matured into 16 megawatt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/business/GE-wind-turbine.html">giant turbines</a>, stretching hundreds of metres into the sky. And the Russian war on Ukraine has driven fossil fuel prices skyward, causing hip pocket pain to consumers around the world. </p>
<p>This move will also give Victoria’s emissions reduction target a shot in the arm. Nationally, a third of our emissions come from electricity. In brown-coal capital Victoria, it’s traditionally been 50%. Clean power will get the state about halfway to its emissions targets. The announcement today made no mention of other emissions sources – manufacturing, agriculture and transport. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/so-long-loy-yang-shutting-australias-dirtiest-coal-plant-a-decade-early-wont-jeopardise-our-electricity-supply-191577">So long, Loy Yang: shutting Australia’s dirtiest coal plant a decade early won’t jeopardise our electricity supply</a>
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<img alt="wind turbines in ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Offshore wind, such as this facility off Germany, is booming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>But is it possible?</h2>
<p>Close your eyes tightly and squeeze. Can you see it? Yes, it’s physically possible – just. But I raise two serious caveats.</p>
<p>First, it means coal fired power will have to end. Second, we have to find ways of building the unsexy but crucial part of the clean energy system: transmission and storage. There’s a lot to build in a short time and the cost will tend to offset the low cost on the renewable generation. </p>
<p>When the coal power stations were built in the Latrobe Valley east of Melbourne – where the coal is mined – state governments footed the bill for the huge transmission towers needed to take the electricity to where people live and work. </p>
<p>Now we need to do that again but on a much larger scale. This poses serious risks. Rural communities are almost guaranteed to push back on large new transmission lines. They may well be in favour of clean energy, but they don’t want big new power lines. </p>
<p>Some might say Australia can’t build like this any more. But we can, as our recent fossil fuel infrastructure builds show. Only a decade or so ago, Queensland built huge new gas export terminals at Gladstone. The cost blew out, but it was done. </p>
<p>We can do it, but it will cost us. The conversion of Snowy Hydro to a pumped hydro plant is way over budget and time. Current transmission projects like EnergyConnect, which will link NSW and South Australia, have seen budgets double. </p>
<p>We’ve done the easy part – solar on rooftops, wind and solar farms in places with good existing grid connections. That got Victoria’s renewables over 20%. Now comes the hard part – transmission, and storage. </p>
<p>Victoria has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/27/victoria-pledges-nations-most-ambitious-renewable-energy-storage-targets">already announced</a> a renewable storage target equal to half the state’s household use. But it will get harder and more expensive the closer we get to the 95% figure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
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<img alt="Transmission lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Energy Security Board has called for transmission infrastructure upgrades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What does this mean for energy markets?</h2>
<p>Some old-timers will shed a tear of joy at the news the SEC is coming back. But why the reversal, after the state government privatised the electricity market in the 1990s? </p>
<p>The reason is the market is not delivering the clean energy transition. For years, we’ve pretended the market can make the shift by itself, but it hasn’t. Continuous government intervention and policy changes certainly didn’t help. Working through the government-appointed Energy Security Board to reform the market didn’t work either. </p>
<p>We’ve needed these new transmission links for years and the existing regulatory model hasn’t delivered. </p>
<p>The announcement today represents a fundamental change. The energy market is set to change completely. Yes, there are risks in having the state government do it. But governments like Victoria’s have been emboldened by the pandemic, which saw all of us look to them – not the market – to steer us through. </p>
<p>What happens to the workers on coal plants? Victoria is quite well placed already. The closure of the highly polluting Hazelwood plant in 2017 caught the state government by surprise. In response, it created the LaTrobe Valley Authority to help people transition to other work. </p>
<p>Five years later, the authority is still there. That’s good – it’s well placed to help ex-coal workers find jobs in other industries such as wind turbine manufacture or construction. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">The end of coal-fired power is in sight, even with private interests holding out</a>
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<h2>It may surprise you, but we’re a role model</h2>
<p>When I’m asked which countries Australia should look to on the energy transition, I can’t help but laugh. In reality, we’re at the forefront. Many other countries are looking at us for ideas. Last year, South Australia <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/16/south-australia-set-to-become-first-big-grid-to-run-on-100-renewables/">made history</a> by becoming the first gigawatt scale grid to (briefly) run on 100% renewables. </p>
<p>While we’ve historically been highly dependent on fossil fuels, we have also had a competitive advantage in shifting. After all, we have rather a lot of sun, wind and land. </p>
<p>So, the verdict on Victoria’s upgraded ambition? 10/10 for vision. But there’s a lot of heavy lifting involved in making it a reality. And the issues we often think of – where to build renewables – are no longer the issue. Now we need old-fashioned transmission towers and high voltage powerlines – and fast. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It's time the grid returned to public hands</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in companies that could have an interest in the topic of this article.</span></em></p>Victoria’s new renewable plan is welcome - but it relies on building unsexy and challenging new transmission lines across the state.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1875402022-07-28T20:04:04Z2022-07-28T20:04:04ZNot waving, drowning: why keeping warming under 1.5°C is a life-or-death matter for tidal marshes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475719/original/file-20220723-15646-o8ba8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C3279%2C2468&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Image: Pamela Marcum, GTM Research Reserve, Florida</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It may not always be clear why global temperature rise must be kept below 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or 3°C. Research <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo7872">published today</a> in the journal Science shows this apparently small distinction will make all the difference for the world’s tidal marshes. </p>
<p>Tidal marshes fringe most of the world’s coastlines. These coastal wetlands are flooded and drained by salt water brought by tides. They provide valuable habitat for animals, support fisheries that feed millions of people and <a href="https://www.thebluecarboninitiative.org">take</a> carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, storing it in their roots. </p>
<p>New roots build up the marsh soil, while stems trap sediment. Both processes help tidal marshes keep pace with sea-level rise. Indeed, tidal marshes <a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon-113020">increase</a> the amount of carbon they store as the rate of sea-level rise increases. </p>
<p>This feedback has led scientists to <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/ecologist-thinks-coastal-wetlands-can-outrun-rising-seas-not-everyone-s-convinced">question</a> whether tidal marshes might survive future sea-level rise. Unfortunately, our research shows that’s unlikely if warming exceeds 1.5°C. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1363907711176478725"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-allow-coastal-wetlands-to-store-more-carbon-113020">Rising seas allow coastal wetlands to store more carbon</a>
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<h2>A 20-year experiment provides the answer</h2>
<p>I am part of an international team of scientists who embarked on an experiment nearly 20 years ago to test whether tidal marshes were keeping pace with sea-level rise. Nearly 500 devices called “<a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/eesc/science/surface-elevation-table">surface elevation tables</a>” were installed in tidal marshes in countries including Australia, the United States, Canada, Belgium, Italy, the United Kingdom and South Africa. </p>
<p>These devices measured the amount of sediment and root material accumulating in the marshes. They also measured changes in the marsh’s surface elevation. Nearby tide gauges measured the rate of sea-level rise. This rate varied across the network. </p>
<p>Some coastlines such as Australia’s have a stable land mass – so the rate of sea-level rise reflects the rise in ocean volume driven by global warming. </p>
<p>On other coastlines, including much of North America, the land may still be <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/glacial-adjustment.html#:%7E:text=Glacial%20isostatic%20adjustment%20is%20the,much%20of%20Earth's%20Northern%20Hemisphere.">sinking or rising</a> after the removal of massive ice sheets at the end of the last ice age. What’s more, extracting oil and water resources from underground can cause <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">local subsidence</a>, increasing “relative” sea-level rise. </p>
<p>The data we gathered provide insights into what might happen to tidal marshes as sea-level rise accelerates.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-levels-are-rising-fastest-in-big-cities-heres-why-157077">Sea levels are rising fastest in big cities – here's why</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475717/original/file-20220723-22-at0oat.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A researcher takes readings from a surface elevation table in Chesapeake Bay, United States.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Glenn Guntenspergen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What do the findings tell us?</h2>
<p>One set of findings was encouraging. These data showed the rate at which material accumulates in tidal marshes around the world corresponds closely to the varying rates of sea-level rise. </p>
<p>Even the marshes experiencing sea-level rise of 7-10mm per year – the rate anticipated globally under high-emissions scenarios – were accumulating sediment and organic matter at a comparable rate. </p>
<p>However, measuring changes in elevation produced a very different picture. Even though marshes under higher rates of sea-level rise were accumulating more sediment, this did not translate into more elevation gain. </p>
<p>The new research suggests a simple explanation for this.</p>
<p>The additional sediment and water accumulating on the surface weigh the marsh down, compressing the sediment below. This is particularly apparent in marshes with high organic content: precisely the type that develops under high rates of sea-level rise. </p>
<p>This insight accords with observations <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba2656#:%7E:text=Their%20analysis%20suggests%20an%20upper,keep%20up%20with%20the%20change">emerging</a> from the paleo record, which also suggest tidal marshes are highly vulnerable to rapidly rising sea levels. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1274884734917603330"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-16-of-the-worlds-coastlines-are-in-good-shape-and-many-are-so-bad-they-can-never-fully-recover-176445">Just 16% of the world’s coastlines are in good shape – and many are so bad they can never fully recover</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>A story of good news and bad</h2>
<p>To protect our tidal marshes, we must try to reduce global carbon emissions that cause global warming and sea-level rise. </p>
<p>Sea level rise has averaged about 3.7mm per year since 2006. Our research shows tidal marshes are capable of keeping up with this on most of the world’s coastlines. </p>
<p>But global sea-level rise is set to increase. Modelling by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-coastal-cities-are-sentinels-for-climate-change-its-where-our-focus-should-be-as-we-prepare-for-inevitable-impacts-177726">projects it</a> will reach 7mm per year if warming reaches between 2°C and 3°C.</p>
<p>Current global <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">commitments</a> put Earth on a trajectory for this level of warming. And once we reach tipping points for sea-level rise, they are locked in for centuries, regardless of subsequent cuts in emissions. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-almost-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-after-unprecedented-drop-in-2020-new-analysis-shows-170866">Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows</a>
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<hr>
<p>The best hope for preserving the world’s existing tidal marshes is to meet the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-aiming-for-1-5-c-target-could-slow-global-warming-within-next-two-decades-151710">Paris Agreement goal</a> of limiting global warming below 2°C – and if possible 1.5°C. </p>
<p>But we should even now be considering how we might allow for these important ecosystems to shift landwards. This has been their natural adaptation to episodes of high sea-level rise in the past. Countries with large expanses of undeveloped coastal floodplain, such as Australia, are well placed to provide areas to preserve shifting tidal marshes in a warmer future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Saintilan receives funding from the Australian Commonwealth Government's National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Tidal marshes can build up their soil to keep pace with sea-level rises – up to a point. It turns out the point when the marsh is drowned matches the average rise when global warming exceeds 1.5°C.Neil Saintilan, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1721502021-11-22T23:35:50Z2021-11-22T23:35:50ZCoal plants are closing faster than expected. Governments can keep the exit orderly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433065/original/file-20211122-23-19neieh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C45%2C5056%2C3330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The international climate summit in Glasgow aimed to “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/rich-nations-must-consign-coal-power-history-uk-cop26-president-2021-07-21/">consign coal power to history</a>”. But while some major coal-consuming countries have agreed to phase out the fossil fuel in the 2030s, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/05/australia-refuses-to-join-40-nations-phasing-out-coal-as-angus-taylor-says-coalition-wont-wipe-out-industries">Australia is not one of them</a>.</p>
<p>Under its <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/October%202021/document/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan.pdf#page=66">recently released plan</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the federal government modelled a scenario where the electricity sector still burns coal in 2050 – but only a very small amount. </p>
<p>Despite the federal government’s insistence on keeping coal alive, the states are making progress phasing it out. But a messy, state-by-state approach is almost certainly a higher-cost outcome for consumers than if Australia had a credible, enduring climate and energy policy at the national level. </p>
<p>As recent <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/go-for-net-zero/">Grattan Institute analysis</a> finds, if the phase out of coal is managed well, we can keep the lights on and slash emissions at low cost.</p>
<h2>Coal economics don’t suit today’s grid</h2>
<p><a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/global-emissions-from-australian-carbon-exports-dwarf-any-declines-in-australias-domestic-emissions/">Australia exports far more coal</a> than we consume. But we still have 25 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations, 23 of which produce power for the National Electricity Market (the NEM). These coal-fired power stations are ageing – two-thirds of this capacity is scheduled to close by 2040.</p>
<p>Market conditions are making it hard for these plants to stay profitable, as renewable energy has flooded into the NEM in recent years. Rooftop solar has dramatically cut demand for grid-electricity in the middle of the day, effectively eating coal’s lunch. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-the-glasgow-climate-summit-demonstrates-an-appetite-for-change-australia-simply-cant-ignore-171810">COP26: the Glasgow climate summit demonstrates an appetite for change Australia simply can't ignore</a>
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<hr>
<p>On days with abundant wind and sunshine, wholesale electricity prices routinely drop so low <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2021/q3-report.pdf?la=en&hash=F7831B51290237F9033B5D22E52EF4C1">they become negative</a>, financially penalising any generators making power at those times.</p>
<p>What’s more, coal-fired power stations are less flexible than batteries, hydroelectric dams, and responsive gas-fired generators. This makes it hard for coal plants to ramp up output when electricity prices are high, or ramp down when prices are low or negative. </p>
<p>The economics of coal-fired generators are simply not well-suited to a system with lots of solar and wind-powered electricity.</p>
<h2>Coal stations shutting earlier than expected</h2>
<p>Poor economics - combined with higher maintenance costs and increased risk of technical failure - make it difficult to justify keeping ageing coal plants open. </p>
<p>So far this year, three coal-fired power stations have had their closure dates brought forwards: <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/yallourn-power-station-early-closure/13233274">Yallourn</a> in Victoria, and <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/nsws-biggest-coal-plant-starts-closure-from-2030/news-story/d042c036b3da6dd135ac4229bf3082d4">Eraring</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/energyaustralia-to-close-nsw-coal-power-plant-early-20210923-p58u7p.html">Mt Piper</a> in NSW. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Coal-fired power stations are closing earlier than expected" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432561/original/file-20211118-19-xcvlo7.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>Faster closure means less coal generation capacity in future years. For example, the early closures of Yallourn and Eraring will reduce the expected coal generation capacity in 2030 by 1.5 gigawatts. </p>
<p>But the current closure schedule would still leave at least six coal-fired power stations operating in Australia after 2040. </p>
<p><a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/isp/2021/csiro-multi-sector-modelling.pdf?la=en">As noted by the CSIRO</a> in July, this is incompatible with Australia pursuing the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Future coal capacity is dropping as plants announce earlier retirement dates." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432560/original/file-20211118-23-1aq7dbj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>So what are the states doing?</h2>
<p>South Australia closed its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-09/port-augustas-coal-fired-power-station-closes/7394854">last coal-fired power station</a> in 2016, and NSW is set to be next with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-23/energyaustralia-closing-coal-power-stations/100487022">Mt Piper station</a> due to close in 2040. That leaves Victoria and Queensland.</p>
<p>Victoria’s Loy Yang A and B power stations use brown coal, making them some of the cheapest but most polluting plants to operate. Victoria has also <a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/victorias-climate-change-strategy">legislated its commitment</a> to net-zero emissions by 2050 and, by 2030, Victoria plans to use 50% renewable energy. </p>
<p>Pushing even more renewable energy into the state boosts the odds of the remaining coal-fired power stations leaving. In fact, the owners of each of the Loy Yang plants have hinted that <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/alinta-concedes-coal-plant-may-shut-15-years-early-20211012-p58z8x">their closure dates will come forward</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-death-of-coal-fired-power-is-inevitable-yet-the-government-still-has-no-plan-to-help-its-workforce-156863">The death of coal-fired power is inevitable — yet the government still has no plan to help its workforce</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Queensland is more complicated, as it has Australia’s <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/State%20of%20the%20energy%20market%202021%20-%20Full%20report_1.pdf#page=28">youngest fleet</a> of coal-fired power stations. Five of them are due to close after 2040. </p>
<p>But of those five, four are partly or fully owned by the Queensland government. That means the timing of their closures is as much a political as an economic question.</p>
<p>Queensland also boasts some of the best renewable resources in the country, including vast tracts of land suitable for renewable energy projects. Combined with its <a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/16021/transitioning-to-low-carbon-energy-sector.pdf">50% renewable energy target by 2030</a>, the state government has the levers it needs to pull coal-fired generation out of the system by 2040 or earlier.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433068/original/file-20211122-23-ry66mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Loy Yang B, a brown-coal fired power station in the Latrobe Valley, Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We need strong, national policy</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/more-coal-fired-power-or-100-renewables-for-the-next-few-decades-both-paths-are-wrong-158529">Grattan Institute analysis</a> finds that a mostly renewable system with no coal – and only a limited role for gas – can maintain a reliable electricity supply while slashing emissions cheaply. </p>
<p>This is because the cost of wind and solar have plummeted, and energy storage such as batteries can help to smooth out daily fluctuations in demand and supply. For rare, sustained periods of high demand, low solar and low wind (which occur every few winters), gas is the lowest-cost backstop solution, at least until the economics of hydrogen become much better.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-coal-fired-power-or-100-renewables-for-the-next-few-decades-both-paths-are-wrong-158529">More coal-fired power or 100% renewables? For the next few decades, both paths are wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Achieving this outcome by 2040 or earlier will require significant, timely <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Towards-net-zero-A-practical-plan-for-Australia-s-governments.pdf#page=34">investment in the transmission network</a> within and between states, allowing states to share their supplies and reducing the overall cost to consumers. Keeping a lid on the costs of transmission projects is also crucial – <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Megabang-for-megabucks-Driving-a-harder-bargain-on-megaprojects.pdf">the risk of cost overruns is higher</a> the more complex the project.</p>
<p>There will, of course, be challenges to ensure an orderly coal exit. For example, unexpected closures or breakdowns of coal plants can lead to shortages in electricity supply because investors in the electricity market don’t have enough time to build new capacity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind turbines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433069/original/file-20211122-15-1t70928.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of wind and solar have plummeted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A national policy to coordinate coal exit would reduce uncertainty for the electricity system. </p>
<p>Grattan has previously recommended coal plant operators nominate a window of time within which their plant will close, combined with a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/922-Power-play.pdf">payment of at least $100 million into an escrow fund</a>. The operators’ money would be released only if the plant closes within its nominated window – if it exits unexpectedly, the money would be kept by the market operator to deal with any reliability problems.</p>
<p>Governments could also require that nominated closure windows occur before 2040, not after, if they want to achieve a coal-free NEM by that date. Alternatively – and more efficiently – they could establish an emissions standard for the NEM with tradeable certificates, allowing market participants to meet the emissions standard in the lowest cost way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Unfortunately, current political reality indicates neither side of politics wants to be seen to support any policy resembling a carbon price, even though carbon pricing has the overwhelming support of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-top-economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-cost-169939">Australian economists and the business community</a>. </p>
<p>So, the renewable energy targets of the states are most likely to determine how quickly the NEM becomes coal-free. But if governments can muster the courage, our work shows that it’s possible to achieve a vastly lower-emissions electricity system in less than two decades.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Ha is a former associate of Grattan Institute and is now a senior associate at Aurora Energy Research. This article does not necessarily reflect the views of either the company or its board.
Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Reeve is a former public servant.
Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Grattan Institute analysis shows it’s possible to achieve a vastly lower-emissions electricity system in less than two decades – if governments can muster the courage.James Ha, Associate, Grattan InstituteAlison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1714662021-11-09T12:41:46Z2021-11-09T12:41:46ZHow the world’s militaries hide their huge carbon emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430896/original/file-20211108-23-qk6wrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C16%2C5414%2C3097&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39955793@N07/33190553450/in/photolist-UWF6Sd-piZtzN-CtUweq-orA53z-2erAgxS-SUWZQb-xNjuuK-SyWgcy-pyRZoD-oy321A-dV2MGY-ZV5uYb-ognSVV-vH4Lb7-F5kaqy-y5L7yG-eM5i2f-gacfER-ej8ohk-crvhTj-Y3Je55-ces5kj-gkJR2e-dSAvXE-gn1RRU-dfM13S-9ujmAH-7b8cxv-dgX5eq-nE29hQ-7dw27c-dQQrvZ-fgobq2-cJkN1G-cMsDM9-dfM2PA-i7UdzZ-dMrQWE-9Msfhq-6CRwDw-8yXXoz-6CuyL3-dWLqf1-7GYPeS-crvkdw-bx4ucy-9dCp4x-6XsXWg-bWh3bm-azgAoN">Christian Cachola / US DoD flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change leadership requires more than stirring speeches. It means facing up to hard truths. One truth that governments around the world are struggling with is the immense contribution their militaries are making to the climate crisis.</p>
<p>For example, the US Department of Defense is the largest institutional consumer of fossil fuels in the world – and the largest institutional emitter. Two of us worked on a <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tran.12319">2019 study</a> which showed that if the US military were a country, its fuel usage alone would make it the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, sitting between Peru and Portugal. In other words, the US military is a more consequential climate actor than many of the industrialised countries gathered at the COP26 summit in Glasgow.</p>
<p>Despite the outsized role of militaries, we know surprisingly little about their emissions. This is remarkable given their reach and fossil fuel dependency. Some scientists <a href="https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/carbon-boot-print-military-0">estimate</a> that, together, militaries and their supporting industries might account for up to 5% of global emissions: more than civilian aviation and shipping <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector">combined</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man stands by jet fuel tank" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430909/original/file-20211108-21-141j9ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The US Air Force spends nearly US$5 billion on fuel every year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39955793@N07/4618857473/in/photolist-839RpF-Y5dUtV-RsntGY-FhDWk4-A32J6g-Si2oT3-Yqa68M-fLbuX7-NJt4ku-ALynXW-22onP1C-Mc4oLe-2482yNK-UbGmpJ-pnceab-21XZsgR-piZtzN-NGqdkD-V7a6x6-LM3i19-EsB33x-QKemi5-pyRZoD-p4n4Tt-QCBY5j-Xu4fLG-J8HjAL-2gznKU6-Sgd5b7-e8Qrb8-2bWy9DL-bDd5qV-WT3qpR-2gEpyLV-LeG9Xd-o2BF7v-gtpj7h-VHE8mu-ZERnjU-Q5i5Lp-VZjLg4-FZ1CBw-R3nGv9-cky2mq-oeNF35-LxXTxi-2e9FFSB-QKeuAC-dNRQiN-XGRvFf">Michelle Larche, US Air Force / flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One reason we know so little is due to militaries being one of the last highly polluting industries whose emissions do not need to be reported to the United Nations. The US can take the credit for that. In 1997, its negotiating team won a blanket <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/1998/05/climate-us-exempts-military-from-kyoto-treaty/">military exemption</a> under the Kyoto climate accord. Speaking in the Senate the following year, the now special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, hailed it as “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg46812/html/CHRG-105shrg46812.htm">a terrific job</a>”.</p>
<p>At present, 46 countries and the European Union are obliged to submit yearly reports on their national emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 2015 Paris Agreement removed Kyoto’s military exemption but left military emissions reporting voluntary. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.militaryemissions.org/">research</a> into this military emissions gap has for the first time shed light on the dire state of global military emissions reporting. Under-reporting is the norm, as is data that is inaccessible, or aggregated with non-military sources. For example, Canada reports its emissions under multiple IPCC categories, reporting military flights under general transport, and energy for bases under commerical/institutional emissions.</p>
<p>Military emissions reporting by the many countries that do not have to report annually to the UNFCCC is even worse. This includes countries with massive military budgets, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia and Israel. </p>
<p>That “terrific job” in 1997 has unfortunately cast a long shadow. In 2020, global military expenditure reached <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/world-military-spending-rises-almost-2-trillion-2020">nearly US$2 trillion</a> (£1.5 trillion), and the international community remains largely oblivious to the carbon cost of these dollars, irrespective of where they are spent.</p>
<p>This vast military imprint on the Earth’s atmosphere is not on the formal agenda of COP26. However, hopes are that it will be for COP27 next year, as countries begin to wake up to their huge military carbon bootprint. </p>
<p>In June, the military alliance NATO <a href="https://ceobs.org/did-nato-members-just-pledge-to-reduce-their-military-ghg-emissions/">announced</a> that it would set concrete targets for it “to contribute to the goal of Net Zero emissions by 2050”. Meanwhile, countries like Switzerland and the UK, which have passed domestic legislation setting net zero targets, are finally having to face up to the uncomfortable truth that their defence ministries are the largest institutional emitters within government.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic of US military carbon emissions" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431052/original/file-20211109-23-1xcxnw8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US military carbon emissions by branch: planes use lots of fuel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tran.12319">Belcher et al (2019), Royal Geographical Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While military emissions are gaining attention, the culture of military environmental exceptionalism that birthed it will continue to drive the long war that militaries have been quietly waging on the climate. For all their spending power and political influence, militaries are behind the curve on sustainability. This was clear from NATO’s additional 2021 pledge to develop a carbon counting methodology for its members to use – an area where militaries are lagging behind other major sectors.</p>
<p>Which emissions should militaries count? Should such accounting exercises focus exclusively on fuel use and energy consumption? Or should the operation of the massive, global supply chains – like those run by the US government’s <a href="https://www.dla.mil/">Defense Logistics Agency</a> – also be included? Emissions from supply chains can be <a href="https://6fefcbb86e61af1b2fc4-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/004/811/original/CDP_Supply_Chain_Report_Changing_the_Chain.pdf?1575882630">5.5 times higher</a> than an organisation’s own operational emissions. </p>
<p>And what about overseas operations, whether overt or covert, or the wider climatic costs of <a href="https://ceobs.org/how-does-war-contribute-to-climate-change/">war and peace</a>, such as landscape degradation, deforestation or rebuilding?</p>
<p>Western governments, including institutions like NATO, are busy positioning themselves as <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_184999.htm">leaders</a> on the security implications of the climate crisis. Their credibility on climate security, and on climate action more broadly, will be contingent on their willingness to first face up to some difficult truths about their own contribution to climate change. It will also require far more openness and transparency. Both will be vital for delivering real change, rather than more weapons-grade greenwash.</p>
<p>There should be no illusions as to the scale of the challenge governments face. War is a dirty business. Militaries are institutionally complex, and procurement cycles last decades, which can “lock in” emissions. Things will not change overnight, but what they do not count, we can’t see. And what we cannot see, they will not cut.</p>
<p><em>You can view your government’s military emissions data at the authors’ website <a href="http://www.militaryemissions.org">The Military Emissions Gap</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Doug Weir is affiliated with the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a UK charity that monitors and raises awareness of the environmental dimensions of armed conflicts and military activities. The Observatory currently receives grants from the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Neimark is a Senior Lecturer at the Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, and is Principle Investagator of the UKRI-ESRC 'Concrete Impacts' Ref #: A106153.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Belcher is Co-Investigator on the UKRI-ESRC ‘Concrete Impacts’ Ref# A1061563</span></em></p>Military emissions reporting is only voluntary. And what we cannot see, they will not cut.Doug Weir, Research and Policy Director at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, and Visiting Research Fellow, Dept of Geography, King's College LondonBenjamin Neimark, Senior Lecturer, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster UniversityOliver Belcher, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1699322021-10-17T03:21:05Z2021-10-17T03:21:05ZBarnaby Joyce has refused to support doubling Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targets – but we could get there so cheaply and easily<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426582/original/file-20211014-17-14uekd5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C9%2C3230%2C2143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Prime Minister Scott Morrison tries to land a Coalition climate policy deal ahead of the international <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26 summit in Glasgow</a>, Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce on Sunday ruled out supporting more ambitious 2030 targets.</p>
<p>The current 2030 target aims to cut emissions by <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf">26-28% below 2005 levels</a>, and has been criticised by <a href="https://theconversation.com/154-australian-scientists-demand-climate-policy-that-matches-the-science-64359">scientists</a> and the international community as far too weak.</p>
<p>But ahead of a Nationals party room meeting on Sunday to discuss changes to national climate policy, Joyce declared it “highly unlikely” he would support a doubling of the 2030 target, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/simon-birmingham-denies-climate-change-policies-held-hostage/100545840?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">according to</a> ABC reports.</p>
<p>If Australia was to adopt the bolder target, it would bring us in line with our key ally and trading partner, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies">the United States</a>, and would be broadly in line with the targets of other allies, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en">European Union</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">United Kingdom</a>. It would see Australia become a valued and relevant party to the negotiations at Glasgow, rather than a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-o-phile-dundee-australias-climate-denial-outed-in-massive-times-square-billboard/">resented freeloader</a>. </p>
<p>As a professor of engineering and an author of many research papers considering what’s needed to <a href="http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/">reach 100% renewable energy</a>, I believe Australia could halve its 2030 emissions with minimal cost and inconvenience. Here’s how it could be done. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in blue shirt talks to journalists" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426795/original/file-20211017-27-1iswnti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce says it’s ‘highly unlikely’ he will support a doubling of Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>By the megatonnes</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">top three sources</a> of Australia’s emissions are electricity (34%), heating from burning fossil fuels in homes and factories (20%), and transport (18%).</p>
<p>Australia’s emissions baseline year is 2005, when the total emissions <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf">were 612 million tonnes</a> (megatonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent. </p>
<p>By 2020, emissions had fallen to <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">498 megatonnes</a>, mostly because the rates of land clearing, another big source of emissions, are much lower now than in 2005.</p>
<p>This puts us well on track to meet and beat Australia’s current 2030 target, which equates to about 453 megatonnes. We will easily reach this soft target by continuing to displace coal generation of electricity with solar and wind at the current rate of <a href="http://cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About/Pages/News%20and%20updates/NewsItem.aspx?ListId=19b4efbb-6f5d-4637-94c4-121c1f96fcfe&ItemId=911">7 gigawatts per year</a>, provided we avoid new sources of emissions.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, United States President <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">Joe Biden</a> announced his commitment to reduce US emissions 50-52% by 2030. </p>
<p>Australia should offer to match this at the Glasgow summit. Cutting, say, 51% of Australia’s 2005 levels would bring Australia’s emissions down to just 300 megatonnes in 2030.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">Yes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>OK, so how do we do it?</h2>
<p>The task of reaching 300 megatonnes in 2030 is straightforward, and with around zero net cost. It would see:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>90% of electricity generation coming from solar, wind and hydro in 2030 (three-quarters of the task)</p></li>
<li><p>90% of new sales of vehicles and heating equipment be electric from 2027 (one-quarter of the task)</p></li>
<li><p>no new emissions sources. For example, encouraging fossil gas companies to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-beetaloo-drilling-program-brings-potential-health-and-social-issues-for-aboriginal-communities-in-remote-nt-165392">frack large new areas</a> makes the task more onerous because of methane leakage.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Let’s look at transport first. Curtailing sales of petrol vehicles with a combination of incentives and regulation would see nearly all vehicles become electric by the mid-2030s, as old cars retire. </p>
<p>While the federal government has been famously <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/10/scott-morrison-walks-back-end-the-weekend-rhetoric-on-electrical-vehicles">unenthusiastic about electric vehicles</a>, states and territories are already offering <a href="https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/06/heres-a-state-by-state-guide-to-electric-vehicle-ev-incentives/">modest incentives</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030: CSIRO analysis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426640/original/file-20211015-27-15ulpjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All vehicles could become electric when older cars retire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The bulk of emissions cuts will come from the electricity sector, because <a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">the cost</a> of solar and wind technology has fallen <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=BRO&pid=csiro:EP208181&expert=false&sb=RECENT&n=10&rpp=2">below coal and gas</a>. </p>
<p>As of this month, Australia’s National Electricity Market <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">derives 36% of its electricity</a> demand from renewables (mostly solar and wind), and is tracking towards 50% in 2025. Coal burning makes up 60%, but is falling quickly because of growing competition from solar and wind. Gas generation has fallen to just 4%. </p>
<p>The wholesale market price has also fallen sharply from 2020, <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m">as a flood of</a> new solar and wind farms entered the market. This means the faster we deploy solar and wind, the lower electricity prices will be and the faster we reduce emissions.</p>
<p>The biggest impediment to rapid deployment of solar and wind is a lack of new transmission cables to bring new solar and wind power from the regions to the cities. The government needs to facilitate a national transmission network to get rid of congestion when transmitting renewable electricity — then stand back as solar and wind farm companies rush to utilise it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426637/original/file-20211015-18-13jx5s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia has a wealth of sunlight, giving us huge potential for deploying solar power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia’s natural advantage</h2>
<p>Not only is the market for renewable energy dramatically improving, Australia also has a natural advantage. Compared with most other developed nations, Australia has excellent solar and wind resources where most people actually live, near the sea. </p>
<p>Australia also has a big head start on installing rooftop solar, solar farms and windfarms, helped along by <a href="http://theconversation.com/how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions-121571">strong Australian-developed solar technology</a> and political support between 2007 and 2013.</p>
<p>In fact, in 2020 Australia was among the top three global leaders in deploying new <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2021">renewable energy capacity</a>, alongside the Netherlands and Norway, as the chart below shows. These three nations deployed new renewables per capita at 10 times the global rate, and between three and five times faster than China, Japan, Europe and the USA. </p>
<p>The fastest change in global energy systems in history is underway. Due to their their compelling economic advantage, solar and wind provided <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8836526">three-quarters of new electricity generating capacity worldwide</a>, and 99% of new capacity in Australia, in 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426643/original/file-20211015-20-zn9chg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data for this chart is from the International Renewable Energy Agency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cutting further to 100 megatonnes</h2>
<p>Reducing emissions to 300 megatonnes in 2030 would place Australia <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119678">on track to just 100 megatonnes</a> sometime in the 2030s, at low cost. We’d eventually see emissions fully removed from electricity, land transport and heating as, for example, electric vehicles replace retiring older cars and retiring gas heaters are replaced.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that every year, coal and gas mining releases around <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/topic/data-and-publications/greenhouse-gas">50 megatonnes of “fugitive” methane emissions</a> — leaks from coal mining and gas fracking. But this, too, will vanish in Australia when other countries stop buying Australian coal and gas. Presumably, this will be before 2050 as other countries make good on their promises to decarbonise.</p>
<p>The technology we need to reach 100 megatonnes of emissions is already available at low cost from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119678">vast production runs</a>: solar, wind, energy storage (via <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">pumped hydro</a> and batteries), transmission cables, electric vehicles, heat pumps and electric furnaces. Continued research and development will make these costs even lower. </p>
<h2>So what’s left over to get to net-zero?</h2>
<p>Remaining emissions come from aviation, shipping, industry (cement, chemicals, metals), land clearing and agriculture. These sectors need plenty of research and industrial development to decarbonise, but we have time to do this over the next decade if we halve emissions by 2030.</p>
<p>Given Australia has plenty of land, good wind and much better solar than its rivals, it would be unconscionable for Australia to have a softer emissions target than the US, UK and EU at the Glasgow.</p>
<p>We don’t need new taxes, nor hydrogen, nor carbon capture and storage, nor a “gas-led recovery”. But we do need the federal government to either get involved or get out of the way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from ARENA and similar organisation</span></em></p>Halving Australia’s 2030 target would see Australia become a valued and relevant party to negotiations at Glasgow, rather than a resented freeloader. Here’s how we could get there.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1688452021-09-28T06:14:51Z2021-09-28T06:14:51ZThe Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they’re holding Australia to ransom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423499/original/file-20210928-16-9fe5vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C4104%2C2674&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/deadset-against-morrison-confirms-discussions-underway-on-net-zero-amid-pushback-from-nationals-20210926-p58utl.html">reportedly</a> developing a plan for Australia to adopt a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. Climate change was a central focus of the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-praises-australia-s-record-of-digging-stuff-up-as-he-announces-clean-energy-summit/f5d77405-bd14-40a0-8652-29ad89924282">Quad talks</a> in Washington which Morrison attended in recent days, and he is under significant international pressure to adopt a net-zero target ahead of climate talks in Glasgow in November.</p>
<p>Morrison is very late to the party on issue of net-zero – and lagging far behind public opinion. A recent Lowy poll <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">showed 78%</a> of Australians support the target.</p>
<p>But standing firmly in Morrison’s way is the Coalition’s junior partner, the Nationals. The words of key Nationals figures including Resources Minister Keith Pitt and pro-coal senator Matt Canavan suggest net-zero is the hill they will die on. And Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, not exactly a climate warrior, has indicated he’s yet to be convinced on the merits of the target.</p>
<p>Ultimately though, this is just bad strategy from the Nationals. It burns valuable political capital for no good reason, and abrogates responsibility to their own constituents.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1441902606356414468"}"></div></p>
<h2>Not much of a target at all</h2>
<p>First, a net-zero emissions target is a really obvious position of compromise for the Nationals specifically, and for a reluctant Australian government more generally.</p>
<p>Every state and territory in Australia has already adopted this target for 2050, or bettered it. And most of our international peers have a net-zero target including <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">the United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges">Japan</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7779596/climate-change-emissions-targets-canada-2030-trudeau/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/germany-raise-2030-co2-emissions-reduction-target-65-spiegel-2021-05-05/">Germany</a>, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/france-switzerland-present-roadmaps-to-reach-net-zero-by-2050/">France</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">United States</a>.</p>
<p>Getting to net-zero by 2050 also doesn’t necessarily require immediate or significant emissions cuts. As critics including Greta Thunberg and former IPCC chair Bob Watson <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">have argued</a>, the targets can create the impression of action without requiring immediate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2021/taking-stock-assessment-net-zero-targets">Research shows</a> many jurisdictions with a net-zero target do not have robust measures in place to ensure they’re met, such as interim targets and a reporting mechanism.</p>
<p>And the timeframe for net-zero – whether 2050 like most nations, or 2060 as per China – is way beyond the political longevity of our current government MPs. That means those now in parliament will be spared much of the political pain of implementing policies required to meet the target.</p>
<p>Finally, pursuing net-zero emissions (rather than just zero-emissions in sectors where that is feasible) allows fossil fuel companies to offset their climate damage, by buying carbon credits, rather than stopping their polluting activity. It also potentially allows for fairly <a href="https://theconversation.com/betting-on-speculative-geoengineering-may-risk-an-escalating-climate-debt-crisis-119889">speculative efforts</a> to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere via geoengineering. </p>
<p>For these reasons and more, the net-zero goal is in often criticised as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">dangerous trap</a> for doing very little on climate change – which appears to be the goal of many in the Nationals.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/betting-on-speculative-geoengineering-may-risk-an-escalating-climate-debt-crisis-119889">Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nationals MPs Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals MPs Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt are vocal opponents of any moves to net zero.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adapting to change</h2>
<p>In opposing the net-zero target, the Nationals often point to potential damage to the nation’s mining and farming sectors, primarily a loss of jobs and economic growth. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-push-to-carve-farming-from-a-net-zero-target-is-misguided-and-dangerous-154822">Some Nationals</a> have called for those sectors to be carved out of any net-zero target.</p>
<p>On the question of agriculture, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-and-australias-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass-168474">research</a> released by the Grattan Institute this week shows it’s getting increasingly hard to argue the sector should be exempt from the target – its emissions are simply too great. </p>
<p>And there is much that can be done right now to cut agriculture emissions, if the government does more to encourage farmers to adopt the right technologies and practices.</p>
<p>On mining, the Nationals are fighting a losing battle. Soon, the world will no longer want our coal. As others <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-promising-new-dawn-is-ours-for-the-taking-so-lets-stop-counting-the-coal-australia-must-leave-in-the-ground-167527">have noted</a>, we must prepare for the change and diversify the economy, rather than lamenting what’s still left in the ground. And Australia can <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-it-is-entirely-possible-for-australia-to-phase-out-thermal-coal-within-a-decade-167366">easily</a> replace coal-fired electricity generation with renewable energy, backed by storage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/agitated-nationals-grapple-with-climate-debate-as-former-minister-chester-takes-a-break-from-party-room-168736">Agitated Nationals grapple with climate debate, as former minister Chester takes 'a break' from party room</a>
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</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the Quad talks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he is working on a net-zero by 2050 plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>For whom do the Nationals speak?</h2>
<p>By refusing to compromise on a net-zero target, the Nationals are burning all sorts of political capital they could potentially wield with the Liberals on a range of issues. The Nationals would have held particular sway over Liberals concerned about holding on to their inner city seats in a 2022 election.</p>
<p>More importantly, the position of Keith Pitt, Matt Canavan and other intransigents in the Nationals isn’t just an abandonment of future generations. Nor is it only a rejection of our responsibilities to vulnerable people in all parts of Australia and the world, or our duty of care to other living beings.</p>
<p>It’s also a spectacular betrayal of their own constituencies. Rural Australia will be <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/564abfd96ebac5cbc6cf45de2f17e12d.pdf">disproportionately affected</a> by climate change, particularly in the form of higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing disasters like drought and bushfires. And the long-term economic costs of inaction for rural constituencies will be potentially catastrophic. </p>
<p>It’s for these reasons that organisations like the National Farmers Federation have specifically <a href="https://nff.org.au/media-release/nff-calls-for-net-carbon-zero-by-2050/">called for</a> a commitment to net zero emissions.</p>
<p>In the 2019 election, the Nationals <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">received</a> just 4.5% of the vote in the lower house, with the Liberal Nationals of Queensland achieving just 8.7% (as a proportion of the national total). In both cases, it was less still in the Senate.</p>
<p>Yet despite speaking on behalf of a small fraction of the country, the party is holding Australian climate policy to ransom.</p>
<p>Maybe we can’t get all in the National Party to suddenly recognise their obligations to the planet and its inhabitants. But surely they can be convinced to represent the interests of rural voters? Time – what little we have left – will tell.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-even-if-scott-morrison-gets-the-nationals-on-board-hold-the-applause-163074">Net zero by 2050? Even if Scott Morrison gets the Nationals on board, hold the applause</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>The National Party’s position on net-zero is wrong, for so many reasons. Not least, it’s a betrayal of rural Australia.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658302021-08-09T16:14:40Z2021-08-09T16:14:40ZIPCC report: how to make global emissions peak and fall – and what’s stopping us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415272/original/file-20210809-13-igtj3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C448%2C3876%2C2136&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-chimneys-heavy-smoke-causing-air-1580989972">Kapichka/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every few years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the United Nation’s climate science body – produces a major report on the state of the climate crisis. However you slice it, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">latest IPCC report</a> told the world what it already knew – and added even greater urgency.</p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-how-to-make-global-emissions-peak-and-fall-and-whats-stopping-us-165830&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>Like the last two in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf">2014</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf">2018</a>, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">recent IPCC report</a> doesn’t say it directly in the text, but you can clearly infer from the numbers that to have anything like a decent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C – the goal of 2015’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> – global emissions need to peak by around 2025 and then plunge rapidly towards zero. We had 11 years to reach that peak and turn it around. Now we have four.</p>
<p>The report sets out five different pathways that emissions could take in the coming decades, with different “climate futures” attached to them. The pathway in which emissions fall as fast as possible gives us a bit less than a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. In this scenario, the world has to limit total greenhouse gas emissions over time to the equivalent of around 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂). </p>
<p>The report shows that at the moment, the world emits around 40 gigatonnes a year (and growing). That leaves about 12.5 years of emitting at current levels. So if the world reaches zero emissions by 2050, in each year until then, emissions must be no higher than 40% of 2021’s emissions on average.</p>
<p>To get emissions to peak and then start on a downward trend is fairly simple in theory. There are several major changes that can be made in sectors like electricity, construction and transport, where lots of emissions come from, and where there are readily available alternatives. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A ban on new fossil fuel infrastructure. No new <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=owsIEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR7&dq=info:6dgIUNR2F1cJ:scholar.google.com&ots=hdrTTSnV4Y&sig=mjkuXdof3x7lZSAffPXYu9WkrY0&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">coal-fired power plants</a>, no new <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/an-end-to-uk-oil-and-gas-exploration/">oil and gas</a> operations, and no airport expansions. In essence, the world could agree a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/21/101-nobel-laureates-call-for-global-fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Existing coal plants could be rapidly replaced with <a href="https://www.irena.org/climatechange/Renewable-Energy-Key-climate-solution">renewable</a> sources of energy, like windfarms.</p></li>
<li><p>Radical improvements could be made in the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/topic/heat-and-energy-efficiency-in-buildings/">energy efficiency of buildings</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Natural gas could be eliminated in buildings, replaced with heating and cooking which use <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Buildings.pdf">electricity</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/transport">Ground transport</a> could be decarbonised by a shift to electric vehicles (cars, trucks, buses, trains) and from cars to bikes, walking and public transport.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People on bikes travelling on a tree-lined cycle path." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415274/original/file-20210809-17-1p9ievp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fewer cars, more cycling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-july-15-2019-people-1454876417">Alena Veasey/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Achieving all of this in ten years is technically possible. But there are significant obstacles which are fundamentally political.</p>
<h2>What’s the hold-up?</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel companies <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/short-circuiting-policy-9780190074265?cc=gb&lang=en&">continue to fight</a> to prevent action that threatens their profitability, lobbying governments to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02582-8">weaken legislation</a> and to <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/political-economy/political-economies-energy-transition-wind-and-solar-power-brazil-and-south-africa">protect their subsidies</a>. They have enough support in enough countries – think <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781315363455/pricing-carbon-australia-rebecca-pearse">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629620300621">Poland</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2018.1448254">Russia</a> and <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/8/4/9/14728/Striving-for-No-Saudi-Arabia-in-the-Climate-Change">Saudi Arabia</a> – and enough countries with contradictory interests – <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/thirty-years-of-failure/9781773632223">Canada</a>, the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2020.1787056">Netherlands</a>, the <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/carbon-captured">US</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/22227063/norway-oil-gas-climate-change">Norway</a> – to stall action in a range of forums, as in the latest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/plans-of-four-g20-states-are-threat-to-global-climate-pledge-warn-scientists">G20 summit</a>. Even in countries with relatively strong climate policies, the power of the fossil fuel industry generates various contradictions, as in the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-declines-rule-out-new-oil-exploration-despite-climate-report-2021-05-25/">UK’s continued support</a> for North Sea oil and gas.</p>
<p>Global inequalities in emissions remain an important issue to deal with too. There are <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-carbon-emissions-grow-at-fastest-rate-for-more-than-a-decade">rapidly growing emissions</a> in developing countries but <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">stable or gently declining</a> emissions in most industrialised nations. Peaking emissions globally means curbing emissions growth in <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-carbon-emissions-grow-at-fastest-rate-for-more-than-a-decade">China</a> and other countries, with much more rapid declines in the US, UK and Germany than the global average. The politics of this are delicate and complicated.</p>
<p>Then there is the question of how to finance this rapid shift. This entails mobilising investment in renewable energy, doing huge amounts of retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency and electrification, and accelerating the construction of electric vehicle infrastructure. It also entails significant global financing of such transitions in developing countries. But how should this money be mobilised? </p>
<p>The neoliberal consensus of the last four decades favours private finance. But leaving this effort to the free market is likely to be inadequate. Fossil fuels are often <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563467.2021.1926957">still more profitable</a> than renewables, despite the latter’s cost-competitiveness. Reviving notions of public finance to generate sufficient investment in low-carbon sectors may be necessary. There has been some shift towards this approach in the emergence of green new deals in different countries, but a much bigger push in this direction is needed.</p>
<p>And of course, the world remains distracted by other crises. The most obvious of these is COVID-19, which has <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-ambition-summit-showed-how-much-the-pandemic-has-cost-momentum-on-climate-change-152025">disrupted climate action</a> in most countries, delaying new policy announcements, focusing attention on both the pandemic and the economic recovery. The level of investment needed to overcome COVID-19 has presented some <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/building-back-better-a-sustainable-resilient-recovery-after-covid-19-52b869f5/">opportunities</a>, but the evidence so far seems to suggest that the world economy is bouncing back towards <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/15/trillions-of-dollars-spent-on-covid-recovery-in-ways-that-harm-environment">high-carbon growth</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, COVID-19 has reduced the pressure on political leaders to act on climate change. It has been much harder to organise the protest movements – the school strikes, Extinction Rebellion – that were burgeoning before lockdowns came into force globally.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Youth strike demonstrators gather with signs and bounce an inflatable planet Earth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415275/original/file-20210809-23-1ecp59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pandemic has cost the climate movement precious momentum.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-march-15-2019-20-1340782703">Holli/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The importance of COP26</h2>
<p>The IPCC report will be used to inform the discussions of world leaders at the UN climate talks, otherwise known as <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a>, which are to be held in Glasgow in November 2021. But if there are so many things preventing putting emissions on a downward trajectory, what can the world expect from this fortnight-long meeting?</p>
<p>Clearly it can do some things. It is the key site for negotiating global inequalities, such as how richer countries should compensate poorer ones for having to bear the brunt of a crisis largely not of their making. Such issues have dogged the UN climate process since negotiations started in 1991. It is where national governments are supposed to make new sets of commitments, known as nationally determined contributions, to meet the overall goal of the Paris Agreement’s proposed global temperature limit. </p>
<p>Some of these commitments have already been published, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf">but the signs</a> that they are significantly strengthening global action are not good. So far, and despite <a href="https://www.state.gov/leaders-summit-on-climate/">US president Joe Biden’s summit</a> in April, there is no sense that leading states are successfully persuading each other to improve their commitments, generating the kind of momentum in 2015 which led to the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>To expect much from COP26 itself is to miss the key sites of action involved in causing emissions to peak and decline however. In the Paris Agreement, these are national governments. And most of the conflicts preventing action occur within countries. </p>
<p>It’s at this level that people must focus much of their attention, to outweigh the influence of fossil fuel companies, find novel ways to fund decarbonisation and steer the economic recovery from COVID-19 towards a low-carbon future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Paterson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We know how to flatten the curve of rising greenhouse gas emissions. Doing it is another matter.Matthew Paterson, Professor of International Politics, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1500662020-11-22T18:56:11Z2020-11-22T18:56:11ZAlbanese is running out of time to solve Labor’s climate crisis. He needs a plan that works for two Australias<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370254/original/file-20201119-19-15c99g9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the recent American elections, the most eye-catching graphics were the individual county tallies.</p>
<p>These showed that even when states appeared to be overwhelmingly Republican red, some still “flipped” <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/arizona/">to the Democrats</a> on the strength of a smaller number of blue squares.</p>
<p>The trick? These azure islands denoted population clusters in cities like Detroit, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Phoenix.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/21/upshot/america-political-divide-urban-rural.html">left-right chasm</a> between urbanised Americans and the more sparsely distributed rural-regional ones was there to see in primary colours.</p>
<p>But the division itself was neither new, nor especially American.</p>
<p>Across England’s industrial north, British Labour’s Euro-centric cosmopolitanism cut little ice in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/12/trump-brexit-cities-countryside-rural-voters">Brexit referendum</a> of 2016, the same year once rusted-on working class Democrats first <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/trumps-road-to-victory/507203/">broke for Trump</a>.</p>
<h2>Labor struggling to reach ‘two Australias’</h2>
<p>And of course in Australia, this trend is also well established.</p>
<p>Indeed, Coalition majorities have long been built on the need for niche-messaging. This sees Liberals garner the city vote, while mostly leaving the Nationals to reinterpret the conservative brand for bush sensibilities.</p>
<p>As a one-message-fits-all party, the ALP has struggled with this, and as the two Australias become more distinct and antagonistic, the strain is showing.</p>
<p>Labor’s primary vote nationally is stuck in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">low-to-mid 30% range</a>. In the resources states, it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes">sits even lower</a>. That’s too low to win a majority, prompting some in Labor to suggest a Liberal/National-style partnership with the Greens. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Labor leader Anthony Albanese looks glum in parliament." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370472/original/file-20201120-19-3n17uq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor needs to boost its primary vote if it is to win government on its own.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it is far from clear how this would maximise the combined lower house seat haul, given they both court the same inner-city electors. What seems more obvious is that a joint Labor-Greens ticket would actually accelerate the drift of industrially-centred regional seats towards the Coalition.</p>
<h2>Fitzgibbon and the coal dilemma</h2>
<p>This is already happening.</p>
<p>According to Joel Fitzgibbon, who <a href="https://theconversation.com/joel-fitzgibbon-quits-labor-frontbench-but-not-his-fight-over-the-partys-climate-policy-149825">resigned last week</a> from the shadow frontbench, Labor’s ambitious <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/01/labors-climate-change-policy-explained-heres-what-we-know">45% by 2030</a> emissions cut at the last election proved this. After being pushed to preferences in 2019 on the back of a 14% primary vote slump, Fitzgibbon believes that “<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/albanese-is-struggling-amid-labor-party-supporter-base-juggle-fitzgibbon/ar-BB1aVVJF">crazy</a>” policy was kryptonite in his coal-dominated seat, and in regional communities up and down the eastern seaboard. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-joel-fitzgibbon-waves-the-lightsaber-149908">Grattan on Friday: Labor's Joel Fitzgibbon waves the lightsaber</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Hunter Valley-based MP, and others in Labor’s right faction, argue such communities feel abandoned by a party beholden to inner-city progressives.
There’s no doubt Labor MPs are increasingly pessimistic over their electoral prospects.</p>
<p>Some on the right insist the party is doomed unless it actively reconnects with its industrial roots, and that means dropping the climate change focus.</p>
<p>As Fitzgibbon told reporters when announcing his frontbench resignation,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have to speak to, and be a voice for, all those who we seek to represent, whether they be in Surry Hills or Rockhampton. And that’s a difficult balance.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Labor leader Anthony Albanese, this presents a near unsolvable puzzle. He needs to outflank the Greens on his capacity to form a government and deliver, and out-perform the Coalition on commitment. Now, he must also manage a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/09/labor-left-blasts-joel-fitzgibbon-for-publicly-undermining-party-policy">rebellion</a> inside his caucus from those who want to dump the party’s climate policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370474/original/file-20201120-19-ldspkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon is pressuring the party to adopt a less ambitious emissions plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Right-aligned MPs, buttressed by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/union-lashes-divided-labor-over-morally-indefensible-gas-opposition-20200924-p55yxv.html">powerful unions</a>, argue steering closer to the Coalition than the Greens is the only way to secure government. </p>
<p>But Labor’s paid-up membership and a majority of its MPs favour a clear acknowledgement of the scientific evidence — evidence that unambiguously calls for the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">phasing out</a> of fossil fuels in the next decade or two.</p>
<p>In a sign of things to come, the blaze of publicity surrounding Fitzgibbon’s resignation completely derailed Labor’s attempt to highlight how the new Democratic White House had left the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/biden-s-climate-goals-turn-up-heat-on-morrison-20201108-p56ckz.html">Morrison government exposed</a> as the only serious economy explicitly not committed to a net-zero time-line. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-bidens-win-australia-needs-to-step-up-and-recommit-to-this-vital-un-climate-change-fund-150444">After Biden's win, Australia needs to step up and recommit to this vital UN climate change fund</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But Fitzgibbon, who claims to have substantial caucus support, wants Labor to simply tuck in behind the Morrison government and allow it to take any political heat for emissions targets not met and voters left frustrated.</p>
<p>Yet this too would be politically calamitous.</p>
<h2>There could be an election next year</h2>
<p>With an election possible <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection">within 12 months</a>, time to reconcile these oil-and-water imperatives is fast running out.</p>
<p>It is a perfect storm. On the one hand, there is rising pessimism over Labor’s ability to compete with the Morrison government – especially during a pandemic. On the other, rising community impatience for decisive climate action.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-is-too-little-too-late-we-must-run-faster-to-win-the-race-132263">Labor’s climate policy is too little, too late. We must run faster to win the race</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That the opposition has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-environment-lobby-backs-albanese-over-climate-target-omission-20200915-p55vw4.html">not yet named</a> interim emissions targets for 2030 and 2035 despite a clear commitment to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/labor-to-announce-net-zero-carbon-emissions-2050/11986308">net-zero emissions by 2050</a>, speaks to its nervousness. Its rhetoric stresses urgency and purpose, but its detail reveals hesitation.</p>
<p>Insiders know any repeat of its 2019 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/12/adani-coalmine-can-labor-get-away-with-choosing-ambiguity-over-integrity">each-way bet</a> on the Adani coal-mine will be a gift to the Greens.</p>
<p>As the policy show-down looms, so too does the ever-present danger to Albanese of it morphing into a leadership stoush. The left’s Tanya Plibersek and the right’s Jim Chalmers are regarded as the most credible alternatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Labor MPs Jim Chalmers and Tanya Plibersek." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370477/original/file-20201120-15-16af4gj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leadership speculation has bubbled up again, as Labor struggles with its climate stance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Samantha Manchee/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While only a climate capitulation would satisfy right-wing malcontents, another school of thought favours a doubling down, based on the simple arithmetic that there are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/150066/edit">dozen-plus Coalition seats</a> held by margins of under 5% — more than enough to compensate for the loss of regional electorates.</p>
<h2>Bold transition fund needed</h2>
<p>Perhaps Labor’s only hope of keeping both sides in the tent is to propose a bold, generously funded transition fund. </p>
<p>This would not just talk about green jobs and retraining, but directly pay those workers who are displaced. It would include everything from the loss of income and retraining, to compensating for the loss of businesses, house values, and full family relocation costs.</p>
<p>Taking advantage of the low cost of borrowing, this multibillion brown-to-green transition fund could guarantee workers in phased-out sectors would not be left to carry the costs of what is a “national” responsibility and “national” economic reconfiguration. </p>
<p>This could this be Labor’s winning formula: representation, leading to reparation, enabling reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150066/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With an election possible next year, the Labor leader is faced with a near unsolvable puzzle.Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1463832020-10-04T11:16:26Z2020-10-04T11:16:26ZWhat a Dutch Supreme Court decision on climate change and human rights means for Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361437/original/file-20201002-20-8x9izu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=177%2C209%2C3668%2C2608&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate activists gather outside the Supreme Court of the Netherlands on Dec. 20, 2019, ahead of a ruling in a landmark case in which the government was ordered to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent by 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mike Corder)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Late last year, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/20/dutch-supreme-court-upholds-landmark-ruling-demanding-climate-action">Dutch Supreme Court issued a decision</a> that could have implications for countries around the world. </p>
<p>The case, <em><a href="https://uitspraken.rechtspraak.nl/inziendocument?id=ECLI%3ANL%3AHR%3A2019%3A2007&fbclid=IwAR1DQ7g-JAD38BAwQH29tEwfdpN1VxYBoMrWuE81vCvZx6EQuj4uJJVpcOw">The Netherlands vs. Urgenda</a></em>, established that a country’s inadequate action on climate change can violate human rights. For the first time, a court imposed a legally binding target and deadline for a government to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by at least 25 per cent from 1990 levels by the end of 2020. </p>
<p><em>Urgenda</em> was a major victory for climate justice activists, who have launched human rights lawsuits attempting to require governments to take more substantial and timely action against climate change. This landmark decision could prove influential in Canada, where similar cases will be decided.</p>
<h2>Urgenda and Canadian climate litigation</h2>
<p>There are now at least <a href="http://climatecasechart.com/non-us-jurisdiction/canada/">four pending Canadian climate cases</a> invoking human rights, including <a href="http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/non-us-case-documents/2019/20191025_T-1750-19_complaint.pdf"><em>La Rose et al vs. Canada</em></a>, in which the federal government’s effort to have the lawsuit stopped before it goes to trial was argued last week. </p>
<p>Past Canadian <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/fct/doc/2012/2012fc893/2012fc893.pdf">climate cases</a> based on other grounds have <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/fca/doc/2009/2009fca297/2009fca297.pdf">failed</a>. But <em>Urgenda</em> may be particularly relevant to current litigation because it is based on human rights and <a href="http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/non-us-case-documents/2020/20200207_T-1750-19_reply.pdf">some of the federal government’s arguments</a> in <em>La Rose</em> reflect the Netherlands’ unsuccessful arguments. </p>
<p>For example, Canada acknowledges the threat of climate change, but maintains that a court cannot order it to take action because climate change policies are for elected politicians — not judges — to decide. The government also argues that climate change is a global problem that Canada alone cannot solve.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of children and teenagers stand in front of a building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361428/original/file-20201002-14-1mt3ya1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some of the young people who are part of the lawsuit filed against the federal government, seen at a press conference in Vancouver, B.C., in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The pending Canadian cases will require our courts to decide similar issues as <em>Urgenda</em>, including: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Does the right to life under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms require the government to take specific action on climate change? </p></li>
<li><p>Is it appropriate for courts to review climate change policies?</p></li>
<li><p>Does the concept of an individual but shared global responsibility overcome the “de minimis contribution” defence?</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Other issues have been raised in these cases that are not addressed here, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/kids-facing-effects-of-climate-change-are-taking-their-governments-to-court-126419">equality rights for young people and Indigenous Peoples</a>.</p>
<h2>Why could Urgenda be relevant?</h2>
<p>In <em>Urgenda</em>, the court concluded climate change poses a “real and immediate” threat to the right to life, which the Netherlands has a legal obligation to address under the <a href="https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf">European Convention on Human Rights</a> (ECHR). While this convention is not binding in Canada, Section 7 of the charter protects the right to life. Canada is also bound by <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx">international treaties</a> recognizing the right to life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361430/original/file-20201002-16-1ngj786.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters congratulate Urgenda’s legal team after the court upheld a 2015 landmark ruling ordering the government to cut the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25 per cent by 2020, in The Hague, Netherlands, Oct. 9, 2018. On Dec. 20, 2019, the Dutch Supreme Court upheld the previous rulings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The interplay between international and domestic law is <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3277884">complicated</a>, but the Supreme Court of Canada has established that charter rights should provide at least as much protection as corresponding rights under binding human rights treaties. It has also held that other sources of international human rights law — including cases interpreting the ECHR — may be considered in charter litigation. Finally, Canadian courts often canvass relevant foreign decisions. </p>
<p>These principles open the door for our courts to consider <em>Urgenda</em> relevant. And, if our judges think the approach to similar issues in <em>Urgenda</em> is persuasive, they could follow it.</p>
<h2>Climate change and the right to life in Canada</h2>
<p>That being said, Canadian plaintiffs still face significant obstacles due to how the right to life under the charter has been interpreted. </p>
<p>For example, the courts would need to adopt a broader understanding of a “real or imminent” threat, and to recognize that the government must take action to protect the right to life. As the law currently stands, the government is not required to take action to address indirect threats.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kids-facing-effects-of-climate-change-are-taking-their-governments-to-court-126419">Kids facing effects of climate change are taking their governments to court</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But, this could change. The SCC <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/ca/scc/doc/2002/2002scc84/2002scc84.pdf">left the door open</a> to a broader approach in an anti-poverty case: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>One day S. 7 may be interpreted to include positive obligations…. It would be a mistake to regard S. 7 as frozen, or its content as having been exhaustively defined.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition, the <a href="https://www.escr-net.org/sites/default/files/caselaw/toussaint_judgment.pdf">UN Human Rights Committee has more recently concluded</a> (in a different context) that the right to life under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights — a binding international treaty — can impose positive obligations on Canada. These decisions may leave room for climate plaintiffs to argue that our courts’ approach to the right to life is too restrictive and is falling below international standards.</p>
<h2>Can courts review climate change policies?</h2>
<p>In <em>La Rose</em>, Canada <a href="http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/non-us-case-documents/2020/20200207_T-1750-19_reply.pdf">argues</a> that the plaintiffs are asking the court to “step outside its judicial function” and become involved in “crafting a policy response to global climate change.”</p>
<p>This argument failed in <em>Urgenda</em>. In the Dutch Supreme Court’s view, an order to reduce GHG emissions was within its authority because it is the court’s role to review the reasonableness of laws and policies and the legislature remained free to determine what laws and policies to implement to meet the Netherlands’ obligations.</p>
<p>Canadian courts also often review the reasonableness of laws and policies. So, if climate change is considered a threat to charter rights that Canada must address, Canadian courts could follow the same approach as <em>Urgenda</em>. While the government’s obligation to meet an emissions target would be new, elected officials would still decide relevant laws and policies.</p>
<h2>The ‘too small to matter’ defence</h2>
<p>In the Dutch Supreme Court’s view, the shared global responsibility for climate change necessarily entails an individual responsibility on each country to do its fair share. And the court concluded that the Netherlands was not doing its part. </p>
<p>Critically, the Netherlands emits a disproportionately large share of global GHGs, had adopted a less stringent GHG policy than comparable countries and did not show that meeting a higher emissions target would pose an undue burden.</p>
<p>If Canadian courts accept the premise of individual responsibility, they would similarly assess whether Canada is doing its fair share, and the statistics could be on the side of the plaintiffs. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC">emits more</a> GHG per capita and in total than the Netherlands. Its emissions target under the Paris Agreement is lower than the Netherlands for 2030 (a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-organizations/united-nations-framework-climate-change.html">30 per cent reduction</a> from 2005 levels <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Austria%20First/LV-03-06-EU%20INDC.pdf">compared to 40 per cent</a> — and <a href="http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf">Canada is not on track to meet it</a>). And it has been argued that Canada ought to be able to “<a href="https://lawreview.vermontlaw.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/04-Chalifour.pdf">reduce its GHG [emissions] without major economic repercussions</a>.” </p>
<p>Our courts may also find it compelling that, even though Canada’s emissions amount to 1.6 per cent of global emissions, “Canada is still <a href="https://lawreview.vermontlaw.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/04-Chalifour.pdf">among the top ten global emitters … on an absolute basis, and in the top three on a per capita basis</a>.”</p>
<h2>A matter of when and not if?</h2>
<p>In 2018, the UN Secretary-General <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2018-09-10/secretary-generals-remarks-climate-change-delivered">lamented</a> that, “scientists have been telling us for decades [about the risk of climate change]. Over and over again. Far too many leaders have refused to listen.” </p>
<p>As <em>Urgenda</em> shows, human rights cases could force leaders to listen — and act. If Canada continues to not do its fair share and if <em>Urgenda</em> marks the beginning of domestic and international decisions requiring countries to take specific action against climate change, it may only be a matter of time until Canadian climate justice plaintiffs prevail.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karinne Lantz receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Canadian Council on International Law. </span></em></p>A ground-breaking court case in the Netherlands could influence the way Canadian courts rule on the government’s actions on climate change.Karinne Lantz, PhD Student and Assistant Professor (part-time), Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470472020-09-29T14:54:47Z2020-09-29T14:54:47ZIs the EU ‘cheating’ on its net-zero emissions plan? Here’s what the science says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360552/original/file-20200929-14-1m1sedy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TR STOK / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The European Commission recently announced it would aim to cut emissions by the bloc by as much as 55% against 1990 levels until the year 2030. The plans have come under fire because they include not only emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production, but also CO₂ removal by “carbon sinks” like forests or the soil. </p>
<p>Even though the planned <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=COM:2020:563:FIN&rid=1">legislation</a> does not specify what is meant by “removal”, the possible inclusion of natural carbon sinks has been termed “cheating” by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/14/eu-commission-accused-of-cheating-on-net-zero-emissions-accounting">Greenpeace</a> and “games” by <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/commission-under-fire-for-including-carbon-sinks-into-eu-climate-goals/">the WWF</a>. Are these accusations justified?</p>
<p>To understand this, we need to remember that to meet the Paris Agreement target to keep global warming “well below 2°C”, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">the world has less than 12 years</a> of <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/news/TemporaryReductionInCO2EmissionsDuringCOVID-19.html">current CO₂ emissions</a> until it exhausts its remaining budget. It is now becoming clear that the only way to stay within this budget is to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/24/carbon-storage-technologies-critical-for-meeting-climate-targets-iea">capture and store massive amounts of CO₂</a>.</p>
<p>What is usually overlooked though is that since the beginning of industrialisation, <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm">most of the CO₂ emitted (57%)</a> has been taken up by natural processes. In fact, while emissions from fossil fuels, cement production and deforestation have been growing exponentially (at <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientist-our-profession-is-letting-down-humanity-we-must-change-the-way-we-approach-the-climate-crisis-122479">1.65% per year since 1850</a>), my own research has found that natural sinks on land and in the ocean have been almost exactly <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL040613">keeping up with the growth</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sunlight shining through a forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360550/original/file-20200929-24-wo7tai.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Much of the carbon we emit ends up stored in forests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Skitterphoto / pexels</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Processes on land alone are responsible for taking up about a third of human CO₂ emissions. So for every kilo of carbon emitted by a car or a power plant, about 350 grams will end up in a tree trunk, a leaf, or decomposed into the soil. There is no consensus about exactly what is responsible for the growing strength of the land sink, but most likely it is a combination of more CO₂ in the atmosphere and nitrogen-containing chemicals from agriculture and industry ending up on soils and leaves, both of which make plants grow faster, as well as forests regrowing when agricultural lands are abandoned.</p>
<p>The inclusion of a constant EU-wide carbon sink calculated following the EU’s own rules effectively lowers the promised fossil-fuel reduction from 55% to somewhere between <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/commission-under-fire-for-including-carbon-sinks-into-eu-climate-goals/">53% and 50%</a>.</p>
<h2>A subtle form of double accounting</h2>
<p>But there is a much more fundamental problem with the Commission’s approach. It is a subtle form of double accounting that sets a precedent for more significant accounting tricks further down the line – or by other countries with larger land carbon sinks. </p>
<p>The problem is that when scientists calculated how much CO₂ we can emit and still keep within the safe limits of the Paris Agreement, nature’s free carbon sucking service was already included. The net-zero goal is strictly in addition to that. By the time we hit net zero, we actually need those natural sinks to continue functioning, taking up over <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm">22 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year</a> and continuing to reduce CO₂ levels in the atmosphere below where they ended up at the net-zero point. Because current levels of atmospheric CO₂ are <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648">not safe</a>. In other words, the needed net zero really is a “big minus”.</p>
<p>How much carbon is stored in EU countries through natural processes is essentially unknown. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085725">Estimates</a> vary between 0.6 and 1.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year, with no consensus about how much of it is within EU boundaries. Contrary to the global land sink, which can be inferred from <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GB001445">combining CO₂ and oxygen measurements</a>, the European sink cannot be measured directly because these gases mix too quickly in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>But what happens if, at some point in future, the EU produces data that shows its carbon sink has increased? The amount of fossil fuels it would be legally-required to cut would be reduced – but the scientifically-determined global carbon budget to meet the Paris Agreement would remain unchanged. Given what we know about the global land carbon sink, it is likely the EU carbon sink will approximately double between 1990 and 2030.</p>
<p>This is clearly a bad start on the road to net zero as it sets a precedent for double accounting. A possible solution might be to only account for sinks that are genuinely additional, such as planting more trees or <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47861-7">no-till farming to increase soil carbon</a>. However there is still no consensus about which processes govern the natural carbon sink, and it is likely to be partly human-induced. It is therefore next to impossible to reliably determine how much of a sink is truly additional. </p>
<p>Another solution could be to allow only direct CO₂ uptake by human activities to be counted as “removal”. So-called bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one option, however it interferes with the biosphere’s capacity to soak up CO₂ as it requires <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0885-y">vast amounts of land</a> to grow biofuel crops (and competes with food production). The other option is to directly capture carbon from the air, but for now this has <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200824120035.htm">limited realistic potential</a>. </p>
<p>By far the most scientific, ethical and sensible approach would be to concentrate on emissions reductions and leave the terrestrial biosphere as intact as possible to carry on removing carbon. This free service, after all, is worth at least US$1.3 trillion per year (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5">at a price of 100 US$/tonne</a>). Natural habitats should be restored for that purpose, but the resulting carbon sink should not enter territorial accounting schemes for two reasons: because it has already been counted, and because we have no way of reliably quantifying how much is down to human policy and how much is just the natural background rate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wolfgang Knorr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Carbon sinks’ like forests and the soil have already been factored into the carbon budget – they should not be double-counted.Wolfgang Knorr, Senior Research Scientist, Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1328662020-05-22T03:24:47Z2020-05-22T03:24:47ZA pretty good start but room for improvement: 3 experts rate Australia’s emissions technology plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336905/original/file-20200522-102657-12r8a5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4731%2C3277&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Gourley/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor yesterday released his government’s emissions reduction technology plan, setting out priorities for meeting Australia’s climate targets while growing the economy.</p>
<p>The long-awaited <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/technology-investment-roadmap/supporting_documents/technologyinvestmentroadmapdiscussionpaper.pdf">Technology Investment Roadmap</a> examined more than 140 technologies for potential investment between now and 2050. They include electric vehicles, biofuels, batteries, hydrogen, nuclear and carbon capture and storage.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-dangles-new-carrots-for-industry-but-fails-to-fix-bigger-climate-policy-problem-138940">Morrison government dangles new carrots for industry but fails to fix bigger climate policy problem</a>
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<p>The discussion paper builds on the need for a post-pandemic recovery plan. It sets a positive tone, and highlights Australia’s enormous opportunities to support investment in low-emission technologies, while increasing prosperity. </p>
<p>But it’s not clear whether the government grasps the sheer scale of infrastructure and behaviour change required to meet our climate goals – nor the urgency of the task.</p>
<p>So let’s take a closer look at where the report hits the mark, and where there’s room for improvement.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336902/original/file-20200522-102678-dh1o4j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The University of Queensland’s 78 megawatt solar farm at Warwick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Positive signs</h2>
<p>The paper gives a reasonably comprehensive overview of new and emerging technologies, and builds on a significant body of prior work and investment. This includes the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">CSIRO’s Low Emissions Technology Roadmap</a> and <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2014/02/Commercial-Readiness-Index.pdf">ARENA’s Commercial Readiness Index</a>. </p>
<p>Crucially, the paper recognises the need for government funding to help share the financial risks of deploying technologies in their early stages. It also acknowledges the need for partnerships between government, industry and research institutions to drive innovation.</p>
<p>Encouragingly, the paper recognises Australia’s responsibility to support our neighbours across the Indo-Pacific, to help reduce international emissions.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory</a>
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<p>The paper is a “living” document, designed to be updated in response to future developments in technology, domestic demand, international markets and so on. Progress will be reported through annual “low emissions technology statements”, and the roadmap can be adjusted as certain technologies flourish and others fail. </p>
<p>This process recognises the considerable uncertainties around the performance and costs of future technologies. It will allow ongoing assessment of where future technologies should be deployed, and can ultimately deliver the greatest emission reduction benefit.</p>
<p>The paper considers the role of both coal and natural gas in Australia’s transition to net-zero emissions. We don’t object to the inclusion of these energy sources, as long as they’re decarbonised, for example using carbon capture and storage or verifiable carbon offsets.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336913/original/file-20200522-57725-1tszc9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coal and gas should be decarbonised if they are part of our energy future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>The paper’s emphasis on technology and investment is clear. But what’s less clear is an appreciation of the sheer scale of change needed to support a low- or net-zero emissions future. </p>
<p>The roadmap would benefit from an assessment of the scale of investment and infrastructure needed to meet the long-term emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. This will require nations including Australia to reduce economy-wide emissions to net-zero. </p>
<p>We believe the lack of clarity around mid-century (and intermediate) emissions targets is a significant gap in the roadmap. It obscures the scale and pace of technological change required across all sectors, and has already prompted <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/taylor-puts-gas-and-ccs-at-centre-of-technology-roadmap-coal-and-nuclear-not-excluded-11177/">criticism</a>.</p>
<p>The energy transition must start as soon as possible. It will involve unprecedented levels of behaviour change, infrastructure investment and technology deployment, which must be maintained over several decades.</p>
<p>The deployment of new technologies affects communities and natural landscapes. The paper touches on these issues, such as the use of water resources to produce renewable hydrogen.</p>
<p>But it does not sufficiently emphasise the need to consult a broad range of stakeholders, such as community, environment and business groups. This should happen before investment begins, and throughout the transition.</p>
<p>The paper also omits notable low-emission technologies already deployed in Australia. This includes zero-emission electric heavy vehicles such as <a href="https://newsroom.bne.com.au/new-electric-buses-at-brisbane-airport-a-winwin-for-travellers-and-the-environment/">buses</a>, <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-and-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro/brisbane-metro-vehicle">trackless trams</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2019/12/12/ikea-goes-electric-with-zero-emissions-truck-launched-in-queensland/">trucks</a>. Future consultation on the paper will help fill these gaps.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Brisbane Metro project involves electric buses.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Planning for an uncertain future</h2>
<p>The roadmap process should explore the various technology pathways that could plausibly emerge between now and 2050, depending on how technologies progress and costs evolve, levels of public acceptance, and the nature of policies adopted.</p>
<p>The process should also seek to identify and deal with industrial, regulatory and social bottlenecks or constraints that might slow down technological efforts to decarbonise our economy, and those of our trading partners. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wrong-way-go-back-a-proposed-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-127608">Wrong way, go back: a proposed new tax on electric vehicles is a bad idea</a>
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<p>With Princeton University, we are co-leading such a project. Known as <a href="https://www.chemeng.uq.edu.au/dowcsei/research">Rapid Switch</a>, the <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2019/06/24/rapid-switch-project-assess-practicality-and-pace-global-climate-strategies">international collaboration</a> will determine the actions needed in various countries to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Our work highlights the need for most low-carbon technologies to be deployed at historically unprecedented rates. This wholesale transformation will have dramatic impacts on landscapes, natural resources, industries and current practices.</p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>Overall, the Technology Investment Roadmap is a solid foundation for building a low-emissions future. </p>
<p>It should encourage the right technology investment, if supported by other policy mechanisms. These should include an expanded Renewable Energy Target and low-carbon fuel and material standards which, for example, would encourage the production of green hydrogen and steel.</p>
<p>But the divisive nature of Australia’s climate politics over the past decade shows that securing bipartisan support for this plan, and its implementation over the long term, is crucial.</p>
<p>The magnitude of the challenge of transitioning our economy must not be taken for granted. But with a few important changes, this roadmap could help get us there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is the Tritium e-Mobility Fellow at the Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation at The University of Queensland, a Research Fellow at the School of Civil Engineering at the University of Queensland, holds an Advance Queensland Industry Research Fellowship focussed on how electric vehicles can deliver co-benefits to the energy sector, is a Member of the International Electric Vehicle Policy Council, and is an AR6 Lead Author for The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Greig is a Professor and Director of the Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation, in the School of Chemical Engineering at the University of Queensland; a Visiting Research Fellow at the Andlinger Centre for Energy & the Environment at Princeton University. Chris holds a degree and PhD in chemical engineering from the University of Queensland and is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering.
Prior to becoming an academic in 2011, Chris spent more than 25 years in executive roles in resources and energy, including as CEO of ZeroGen a proposed, large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. He has also held a number of non-executive roles including Deputy Chairman of Gladstone Ports Corporation, and Director of the Energy Policy Institute of Australia.
Chris’s research interests cover energy transitions, CCS, industry decarbonisation and megaproject investment.
Chris Greig receives funding from Dow Chemical Company.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Smart is an Associate Professor in the School of Chemical Engineering, Senior Research Fellow in the Dow Centre for Sustainable Engineering Innovation and Director of the Functional Interfacial Materials and Membranes Laboratory (FIM2Lab) at The University of Queensland. He currently receives funding from the Future Fuels CRC Ltd, ARC Research Hub for Energy-Efficient Separation and ARC Research Hub for Australian Steel Manufacturing.</span></em></p>The long-awaited paper sets a positive tone. But it’s not clear if the government grasps the sheer scale or urgency of the emissions reduction task.Jake Whitehead, Advance Queensland Industry Research Fellow & Tritum E-Mobility Fellow, The University of QueenslandChris Greig, Professor, Princeton UniversitySimon Smart, Associate professor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1322972020-03-11T20:01:56Z2020-03-11T20:01:56ZWhy Canada should drop its net-zero pledge to cut carbon emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319706/original/file-20200310-61148-1b610ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=166%2C129%2C5594%2C3994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After more than 30 years of trying, Canada has yet to meet one of its carbon emissions targets. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the climate summit held in Paris in December 2015, the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to reducing Canadian emissions of greenhouse gases (most importantly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels) to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/progress-towards-canada-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Last fall, the prime minister made a new commitment, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49804234">promising that by 2050 Canadian emissions would be net-zero</a>. This means emissions would be drastically reduced and any remaining emissions would be offset by using <a href="https://qz.com/1416481/the-ultimate-guide-to-negative-emission-technologies/">negative emissions technologies</a>, such as tree planting or carbon capture from the air, to take an equivalent amount of carbon out of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Setting aside the technical viability of such technologies, it seems entirely reasonable for the prime minister to declare these Canadian objectives. </p>
<p>To achieve any goal, we set targets and then measure our progress in achieving them. Simply saying, “I want to lose some weight” is much less useful than adopting a specific goal, such as losing four pounds a month for six months. If at the end of the first month I have only lost two pounds, I can make further changes to our diet and so keep on track. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Surely, Canada can do the same thing. We can set targets, such as those for 2030 and 2050, monitor emissions and then, as necessary, change our reduction programs to be sure the targets are met. </p>
<p>In fact, that process has not been reasonable in the case of Canadian emission targets. Rather than helping, setting targets in the way we have done to date has reduced the likelihood of reducing our emissions. </p>
<p>While researching and writing my forthcoming book, <a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/carbon-province-hydro-province-4"><em>Carbon Province, Hydro Province: The Challenge of Canadian Energy and Climate Federalism</em></a>, I examined Ottawa’s target-setting process since <a href="http://nrt-trn.ca/chapter-2-canadas-emissions-story">the first one was set by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in 1990</a>. </p>
<p>While successive governments may have thought they were using targets as part of a rational planning process, in fact the targets were distracting attention from our failure to make any progress at all in reducing emissions. </p>
<h2>Canada has a record of fooling itself</h2>
<p>When governments monitored progress towards emissions targets and found they were going to miss a target, they did not introduce additional reduction programs (change their diet). Instead, they set another target! </p>
<p>Should I have this extra piece of chocolate cake? Yes, of course, but first I have to change my target. Next month, I will lose five pounds instead of just four pounds — which means I can have this delicious piece of cake today. </p>
<p>In 2017, the last year for which we have data, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/ghg-emissions/2019/national-GHG-emissions-en.pdf">total Canadian emissions hit 716 megatonnes</a> (Mt; one Mt is one million tonnes) of greenhouse gases, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/ghg-emissions/2019/national-GHG-emissions-en.pdf">while in 1990, they were 602 Mt</a>. In that year, Mulroney followed the lead of other countries and promised that Canada would stabilize emissions at that 1990 level by the year 2000. Federal and provincial environment and energy ministers began meeting regularly to design reductions programs and monitor progress. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319993/original/file-20200311-168563-1bvh03d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>In 1996, ministers were told by their staff that emissions had increased by 9.4 per cent above the 1990 level and that “<a href="https://www.pembina.org/reports/Kyoto20011211_Contribution_CC.pdf">Canada cannot achieve stabilization without significant additional actions</a>.” </p>
<p>Learning this, did ministers introduce new programs? No, instead they switched their focus to a new reduction target: at the 1997 Kyoto summit Canada committed to be six per cent below the 1990 level by 2012. </p>
<p>As it became clear we would not meet that target, <a href="https://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/publications/cc/COM1374/ec-com1374-en-es.htm">the federal government in 2010 set yet another target — 17 per cent below the 2005 level by 2020</a>, equal to 608 Mt. When elected in 2015, the Trudeau government completely ignored that 2020 target and instead <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/progress-towards-canada-greenhouse-gas-reduction-target/2020/progress-ghg-emissions-reduction-target.pdf">set a 2030 target of 511 Mt</a>. </p>
<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>Today, we have missed the first three targets and <a href="https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/news/canada/2018-09-18-canada-failing-to-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions">programs are not yet in place to meet the 2030 target</a>. Not to worry! Just like the cake-eating dieter, instead of focusing on our failings, we can look to our ambitions — net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>A cynic might argue that successive Conservative and Liberal federal governments have used the target-setting process to fool voters. It’s more likely they’ve been fooling themselves, just as our chocolate-cake eater has. There is no doubting. Trudeau’s sincerity. But he is locked into a process that so far is not helping. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319709/original/file-20200310-61127-1wmwpt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cuts a cake in Revelstoke, B.C. in 2017. His approach to cutting emissions has been similar to a dieter who keep helping himself to yet another piece of cake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff Bassett</span></span>
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<p>How can we do things differently? Instead of gazing off to the distant future, Ottawa needs to look hard at what can be done today. </p>
<p>We are still 10 years away from the 2030 target. Trudeau needs to sit down now with the provincial premiers to realistically assess how much Canadians actually can and are willing to reduce and how that total reduction will be shared among provinces. </p>
<p>He could, for example, convene another federal-provincial process, as he did in early 2016, around the question of cutting greenhouse gas emissions from buildings, transportation, energy production and other sources, through laws, taxes and spending. Given the stance of the premiers of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario, the negotiations would be difficult, but not impossible — all three have essentially accepted the federal standard for the industrial carbon tax (even though they have fought the fuel tax).</p>
<p>A 2030 target generated that way might be less ambitious than reducing emissions by 30 per cent — and certainly not as sexy as net-zero — but at least it will not be counter-productive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Macdonald receives funding from my salary and pension from the University of Toronto and grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Canada keeps revising and updating its emissions targets, diverting attention from its failures to make any progress at all.Douglas Macdonald, Senior Lecturer Emeritus, School of the Environment, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323422020-02-25T19:04:01Z2020-02-25T19:04:01ZCarbon pricing: it’s a proven way to reduce emissions but everyone’s too scared to mention it<p>Opposition leader Anthony Albanese sought to claim the climate policy high ground last week with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/labor-to-announce-net-zero-carbon-emissions-2050/11986308">his commitment</a> to a net-zero emissions target by 2050. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf">figures on Australia’s emissions</a> from the Department of the Environment and Energy help frame the political debate, and put the policies of both Labor and the Coalition in context.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-is-too-little-too-late-we-must-run-faster-to-win-the-race-132263">Labor’s climate policy is too little, too late. We must run faster to win the race</a>
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<p>Australia’s emissions fell from 611 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2005 to 532 million tonnes in 2019 – an average annual reduction of 5.6 million tonnes. </p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2019">government’s projections</a> show this will slow to an average of only 2.4 million tonnes per year over the next 10 years. </p>
<p>Achieving Labor’s target of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/labor-commits-to-target-of-zero-net-greenhouse-gas/11996518">net-zero by 2050</a> would require much faster emissions reduction: about 25 million tonnes a year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/business-hits-back-at-canavan-on-carbon-price-20190530-p51std">Business groups and economists agree</a> putting a price on carbon is the best way to meet this objective in a low-cost way. But amid this climate policy hodge-podge, no one is talking about it anymore.</p>
<h2>Scott Morrison: building technologies, not policies</h2>
<p>The summer bushfire crisis <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/19/climate-crisis-australian-businesses-back-net-zero-carbon-emissions-by-2050">prompted demands</a> from business and community for climate action, triggering a repositioning by the Morrison government</p>
<p>There are two arms to the government’s strategy. </p>
<p>The first uses the falling emissions of the past 15 years to support the argument that <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-2030-emission-reduction-target">its target</a> of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030, is achievable. And, by implication, so will be any future targets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/conservative-but-green-independent-mp-zali-steggall-could-break-the-governments-climate-policy-deadlock-131644">Conservative but green independent MP Zali Steggall could break the government’s climate policy deadlock</a>
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<p>The problem with this claim is that the past success has been driven by not-to-be-repeated <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/CIB9798/98CIB10">land use changes</a>, the now-finished <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/renewable-energy-target-scheme">Renewable Energy Target</a>, and <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/12998/closures-coal-fired-power-stations-australia-local-unemployment">coal plant closures</a>. It has not been achieved with current policies. And even if the current target is met, it leaves a tough post-2030 challenge.</p>
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<p>The second arm builds the case for future emissions reduction on technology and not policy, thereby avoiding the firm targets that are poison within the Coalition. </p>
<p>Morrison feels he must focus his narrative on a <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-to-push-tech-investment-target-to-achieve-net-zero-emissions-by-2050">positive technology action story</a> without quantifying the costs of these actions or of inaction. This is a high-wire act, but he has little political choice in the short-term. It may yet buy him the space he needs in the medium-term. </p>
<h2>Anthony Albanese: needs credibility</h2>
<p>Albanese has almost certainly made the right political call to embrace the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. He is on the right side of the broad Australian debate. </p>
<p>Yet, this call brings its challenges. Labor has a year or so to develop a clear and compelling narrative that uses the target as the long-term objective, builds an economy-wide pathway to its achievement, and is supported by a policy framework to follow that pathway. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-wont-change-climate-policy-overnight-but-morrison-can-shift-the-coalition-without-losing-face-129354">Bushfires won't change climate policy overnight. But Morrison can shift the Coalition without losing face</a>
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<p>Labor has considerable experience, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/labor-election-review-bill-shorten-failures-warning-for-albanese/11683892">much of it painful</a>, from which to learn. It must provide enough substance to be credible but avoid getting bogged down using economic modelling as a precise forecasting tool. It must also directly address the role of government in supporting structural adjustment as the new economy emerges. </p>
<p>The big difference this time around is Labor can harness the widespread support across many areas of industry and the community. </p>
<p>Albanese has already begun to build his narrative around these themes. His challenge is to sustain the momentum.</p>
<h2>Resurrecting the carbon price</h2>
<p>In all the strategies and tactics of this round of the climate wars, the most disturbing development must be that carbon pricing <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/five-years-after-carbon-price-repeal-australia-remains-in-policy-abyss-43066/">became roadkill</a> on the way.</p>
<p>Emissions must be reduced across the economy at lowest cost. Business groups, including the <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/energy_and_climate">Business Council of Australia</a>, as well as economists, recognise a carbon price is the best way to meet this objective. And there are several models to choose from, including cap-and-trade, baseline-and-credit and emissions intensity schemes. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-year-on-from-the-carbon-price-experiment-the-rebound-in-emissions-is-clear-44782">One year on from the carbon price experiment, the rebound in emissions is clear</a>
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<p>The key advantage of an economy-wide carbon price is that it provides an overall emissions constraint and leaves it to the widest possible range of businesses and economic activities to find lowest-cost solutions. </p>
<p>Sector-based approaches or having governments pick winners – such as the Commonwealth’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-programs/underwriting-new-generation-investments-program">Underwriting New Generation Investment</a> scheme – can reduce emissions. But this will always come at a higher cost than a carbon price – a cost borne by consumers and taxpayers. </p>
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<p>The government seems captured by its own past success in killing carbon pricing mechanisms, such as Labor’s carbon price regime which ran from 2012 to 2014. This is despite the fact that two existing policies it has overseen – the Climate Solutions Fund and the Renewable Energy Target – incorporate explicit and implicit carbon prices respectively. </p>
<p>Labor seems captured by its past failure with carbon pricing, such that Albanese now argues it’s unnecessary. At the same time, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/23/obscene-amount-of-money-anthony-albanese-backs-potential-cap-on-political-donations">refers positively</a> to the abandoned National Energy Guarantee as the sort of policy he could support, without apparently recognising it would have included a form of carbon pricing and trading.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/222-scientists-say-cascading-crises-are-the-biggest-threat-to-the-well-being-of-future-generations-131551">222 scientists say cascading crises are the biggest threat to the well-being of future generations</a>
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<p>As we settle into the third decade of the 21st century, it seems our best hope for the near-term is a combination of sector-based, technology-driven, third-best policies that will deliver progress for a while. </p>
<p>Long-term environmental and economic success will depend on returning to first-best policies when we learn from the consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132342/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood owns shares in a range of companies through his superannuation fund that could benefit or otherwise from this article. </span></em></p>In all the strategies and tactics of the climate wars, the most disturbing development is that the carbon pricing became roadkill.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269302019-11-24T19:08:49Z2019-11-24T19:08:49ZMaking every building count in meeting Australia’s emission targets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302563/original/file-20191119-483-1e58e3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While many Australian households have solar power, our very large houses and wasteful use of building space are factors in our very high emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/array-solar-panels-on-north-facing-1015544242?src=bfdb3dbf-d747-44e8-8dd1-0acdaba00f5a-1-6">Jen Watson/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Buildings in Australia account for over 50% of electricity use and <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/summary_report_-_low_carbon_high_performance_20160511_1.pdf">almost a quarter of our carbon emissions</a> but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/construction-standards-58285">failures, frailties and fragmentation of the construction sector</a> have created a major obstacle to long-term reductions. Reducing our carbon footprint plays second fiddle to the multibillion-dollar work of replacing flammable cladding, asbestos and other non-compliant materials and ensuring buildings are structurally sound and can be safely occupied.</p>
<p>Buildings – whether residential, commercial or institutional – do not score well under the nation’s main emissions reduction program, the A$3.5 billion <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-solutions-package">Climate Solutions Package</a>. This is intended to help meet Australia’s 2030 Paris Agreement commitment to cut emissions by 26–28% from 2005 levels.</p>
<p>This climate fund has very successfully generated offsets under the vegetation and waste methods – these projects account for <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/climate-solutions-fund-aims-to-way-exceed-paris-targets-20191107-p5389w">97% of Australian carbon credit units</a> issued. But <a href="https://www.hvacrnews.com.au/news/buildings-to-the-rescue-for-erf/">built environment abatements have been very disappointing</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-produce-25-of-australias-emissions-what-will-it-take-to-make-them-green-and-wholl-pay-105652">Buildings produce 25% of Australia's emissions. What will it take to make them 'green' – and who'll pay?</a>
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<p>Australians have <a href="http://climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/facts4paris-australias-capita-emissions-remain-highest-among-its-key-trading-partners">very high emissions per person</a>. That’s partly due to how we use our buildings. </p>
<p>Our states and territories control building regulations. This year the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) <a href="http://coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/trajectory-low-energy-buildings">set ambitious energy-reduction trajectories</a> for buildings out to 2022 and beyond. This was to be achieved through amendments to national codes and implementing energy-efficiency programs.</p>
<h2>Making the best use of our buildings</h2>
<p>Last month, the Green Building Council and Property Council launched a policy toolkit, called <a href="https://new.gbca.org.au/news/gbca-news/making-every-building-count-industrys-practical-plan-lower-emissions-and-deliver-practical-savi/">Making Every Building Count</a>. The councils urged governments to adopt practical plans to reduce emissions in the building sector.</p>
<p>The toolkit contains no fewer than 75 recommendations for all tiers of government. These are the result of work done through industry and university research partnerships in places like the <a href="http://www.lowcarbonlivingcrc.com.au/">Low Carbon Living Collaborative Research Centre</a> – now disbanded after its seven-year funding ended. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-have-the-blueprint-for-liveable-low-carbon-cities-we-just-need-to-use-it-121615">We have the blueprint for liveable, low-carbon cities. We just need to use it</a>
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<p>Most energy-efficiency studies and programs focus solely on the operational aspect of buildings, such as the energy used to heat and cool them. However, various studies have proved that the energy and emissions required to manufacture building products, even <a href="https://theconversation.com/pink-batts-not-a-scandal-but-not-as-good-as-claimed-10213">energy-saving products such as insulation</a>, can be just as significant.</p>
<p>A more holistic approach is to look at the embodied energy already in our building stock, which then poses a <a href="https://www.adelaidereview.com.au/form/2019/06/25/book-extract-the-impact-of-overbuilding-on-people-and-the-planet/">serious question about our consumption</a>. So, besides aspirational codes for net zero-energy buildings, we should be asking: can we meet our needs with fewer new buildings?</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-99-retrofitting-is-the-key-to-putting-more-australians-into-eco-homes-91231">The other 99%: retrofitting is the key to putting more Australians into eco-homes</a>
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<p>In Melbourne, for example, an estimated <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/melbourne-s-60-000-vacant-houses-uncovered">60,000 homes are sitting unused</a>. Commercial property has very high vacancy rates – <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/retail-woes-blow-through-iconic-melbourne-strips-20190813-p52gi9">up to one in six premises are unoccupied</a> in parts of the city. This points to a less-than-effective market in valuing our embodied carbon emissions in property. </p>
<p>If we are to get serious about reducing emissions, we need to tackle inefficient space use.</p>
<h2>Empowering people to cut emissions</h2>
<p>In occupied commercial buildings, some evidence suggests most building managers are grappling with complexity and challenging tenant behaviours. They also don’t get the clear information they need to continually <a href="https://tfespecialreports.com.au/energy-efficiencys-big-secret-a-major-retrofit-of-performance-can-be-surprisingly-affordable/">improve their building’s performance beyond a selected benchmark</a>.</p>
<p>In residential property, home energy performance is very much in our own hands. So we need to consider the means, motivations and opportunities of households, which I did in my <a href="https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/220478">doctoral study</a>. A major barrier is that most of us don’t even know what we are getting when we buy or rent an ageing stock of more than 9 million homes.</p>
<p>Europe and the United States moved to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/buy-sell-your-home/energy-performance-certificates">mandatory residential energy disclosure</a> at point of sale and lease well over a decade ago. If you rent or buy a home in these countries you get an energy performance certificate. It identifies emissions intensity and gives advice on how to operate the home more efficiently and hence with lower emissions. </p>
<p>In Australia, we have just sat on a commitment made by <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/sites/default/files/communique/2009-04-30.pdf">COAG back in 2009</a> to introduce a nationwide scheme. </p>
<p>Size matters, too. Residential space per person is <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/2018Reports/November/ECO_Insights_191118_CommSec-Home-Size.pdf">high by international standards</a>. Although McMansions are on the wane, our <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/residential/mcmansions-no-more-as-house-sizes-shrink-20191108-p538oi">apartments are getting a bit bigger</a>. The average size of freestanding houses built in 2018-19 shrank by 1.3% from 2017-18 to a <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/guidance/newsroom/commsec-home-size-trends-report-201911.html">17-year low of 228.8 square metres</a>.</p>
<p>And we are putting more solar on our roofs as a carbon offset. As of September 30 2019, Australia had more than <a href="https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses">2.2 million</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-photovoltaic-solar-energy-12924">solar photovoltaic</a> (PV) installations. Their combined capacity was over 13.9 gigawatts.</p>
<p>However, the trend towards high-rise living is not helpful for emissions. <a href="https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/solar-for-strata-apartment-blocks/">Solar for strata apartments is tricky</a>.</p>
<p>I recently worked with colleagues in Australia and overseas in a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-04293-6_40">study</a> of the user experience of PV. We found residents face a range of issues that limit emission reductions. These issues include:</p>
<ul>
<li>initial sizing and commissioning with component failures such as faulty inverters </li>
<li>lack of knowledge about solar and expected generation performance</li>
<li>regulatory barriers that limit the opportunity to upgrade system size.</li>
</ul>
<p>Looking to improve regulations and codes and billion-dollar funds may be sensible ways to meet emission targets, but human empowerment is the secret weapon in improving energy performance and lowering emissions. Good low-carbon citizens will help create good low-carbon cities.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-cities-emissions-does-have-economic-benefits-and-these-ultimately-outweigh-the-costs-116986">Cutting cities' emissions does have economic benefits – and these ultimately outweigh the costs</a>
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<p>A set of clear guides on how to use a building is a good starting point. The <a href="http://builtbetter.org/lowcarbonguides/">low-carbon living knowledge hub</a> provides these. </p>
<p>What will make every building count in lowering emissions is the behaviour of occupants, the commitment of owners to make their buildings low-carbon and building managers’ ability to become more adept at reducing building-related emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Timothy O'Leary has received past funding from the Australian Research Council and the State Government of South Australia for research in housing energy performance, energy disclosure and housing lifetime affordability. Dr O' Leary holds an unpaid position as a Program Advisory Group member of the Victorian Government, Residential Efficiency Scorecard and contributes in a non paid advisory role to the National Energy Efficient Buildings Project (NEPP), stakeholder reference group convened by the Australian Department of Environment and Energy.</span></em></p>Making better use of existing building space is a neglected but essential way to cut our carbon emissions. The key is human behaviour. Good low-carbon citizens will help create good low-carbon cities.Timothy O'Leary, Lecturer in Construction and Property, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1181122019-06-06T05:55:11Z2019-06-06T05:55:11ZWhichever way you spin it, Australia’s greenhouse emissions have been climbing since 2015<p>Let me explain how to see through the spin on Australia’s rising greenhouse emissions figures.</p>
<p>With the release today of <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science-data/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications/quarterly-update-australias-nggi-dec-2018">Australia’s emissions data for the December 2018 quarter</a>, federal energy and emissions reduction minister Angus Taylor has been more forthcoming than <a href="https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-11/fact-check-coalition-emissions-reduction-angus-taylor/10936652?pfmredir=sm">usual</a> about the rising trend in Australia’s emissions.</p>
<p>There’s one small issue, though. Despite Taylor’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/carbon-credit-where-credits-due-says-energy-minister-angus-taylor/news-story/ad18a627973ee51b17d5e3ec0bfe48de">comments</a> in which he sought to explain away Australia’s 0.7% year-on-year rise in emissions as a product of increased gas investment, actual emissions in the December quarter were in fact down relative to the September 2018 quarter. This is due mainly to the fact that people use much more energy for heating in the July-September period than they do during the milder spring weather of October-December. </p>
<p>Taylor, meanwhile, was discussing the “adjusted” data, which reveals an 0.8% increase between the two quarters. </p>
<p>This might all sound like minor quibbling. But knowing the difference between quarterly and annual figures, and raw and adjusted data – and knowing what’s ultimately the most important metric – is crucial to understanding Australia’s emissions. And it might come in handy next time you’re listening to a politician discussing our progress (or lack thereof) towards tackling climate change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)</a>
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<p>Highlighting the difference between quarters is problematic, because emissions data are what statisticians describe as “noisy”. Emissions levels jump around from period to period, which can obscure the overall trend.</p>
<p>Quarterly data is important for understanding how Australia is tracking more generally towards doing its fair share on reducing its emissions. But too much stock is put on the noise, and not enough on the underlying trend.</p>
<p>The charts below compare our estimated actual emissions on a quarterly basis (top) with the cumulative emissions for the year leading up to that quarter (here described as the “year-to-quarter emissions” and shown in the lower chart).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278271/original/file-20190606-2732-1bs8wjd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Quarterly emissions. (LULUCF stands for Land use, land-use change, and forestry.)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dept Environment and Energy (data)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278269/original/file-20190606-2737-14tqaa1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Year-to-quarter emissions. (LULUCF stands for Land use, land-use change, and forestry.)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dept Environment and Energy (data)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These charts, both built on today’s data, make a few things clear.</p>
<h2>Quarterly emissions are noisy</h2>
<p>The first thing to note is that saying that our emissions are down compared with the previous quarter is hardly remarkable, or worth patting ourselves on the back for. This is especially true if we are comparing the December quarter data, released today, with the data for the preceding quarter.</p>
<p>September quarter emissions are almost always higher than the rest of the year. This is because, while September itself is in spring, the September quarter also covers July and August. </p>
<p>Our winter heating needs are generally met using fossil fuels, whether through electric heaters or natural gas, which is why the September quarter has the highest emissions. In the December quarter, which covers most of spring, our need for heating drops, and so do our emissions.</p>
<p>But if you look beyond the difference between quarters, as in the second chart above, you can see the underlying rising trend in our greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Cherrypicking the best metric</h2>
<p>Readers who follow climate politics may remember the <a href="https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1102006371816370177">spectacular moment</a> in March when Taylor appeared on ABC’s Insiders opposite Barrie Cassidy.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1102006371816370177"}"></div></p>
<p>Many journalists, including those on the Insiders panel that day, responded at the time that Taylor’s claim that emissions had dipped over the preceding three months was true but not meaningful, in the context of an annual rising trend. </p>
<p>But it was not even necessarily true. As is visible in the quarterly chart, emissions were not lower in the September quarter of 2018 than they were in the preceding quarter.</p>
<p>Specifically, Taylor claimed that “total emissions are coming down right now”. This is only true if we are talking about “seasonally adjusted, weather-normalised total emissions”. The adjusted data are shown above. While the adjusted data went down between quarters, the actual emissions went up.</p>
<p>The process of adjustment is not unprincipled, and is used to see through the noise of our emissions data. “Seasonal adjustment” and “weather normalisation” are two separate processes.</p>
<p><strong>Seasonal adjustment</strong> refers to the process of adjusting the emissions figures to account for the predictable seasonal fluctuations described earlier. <strong>Weather normalisation</strong> does the same, but takes into account individual temperature extremes, both hot and cold, during any given period, and adjusts accordingly.</p>
<p>Much as a golf handicap lets us compare the performance of golfers of differing abilities, these data adjustments tell us whether our emissions are tracking higher or lower than we might expect.</p>
<p>But if a golfer with a handicap of 10 goes around the course in 82 shots, we don’t declare that they have actually hit the ball only 72 times.</p>
<p>This is essentially what Taylor did in his interview with Cassidy. It is not correct to refer to these adjusted emissions data as our “total emissions”.</p>
<h2>What does data adjustment mean?</h2>
<p>Building on this, it is important to note that the adjusted data and actual data often disagree on whether emissions have increased between quarters. Since the Coalition took office in 2013, there have been 21 quarterly emissions data releases. </p>
<p>The actual quarterly emissions have increased nine times between quarters. The adjusted data says there have been 12 of these increases. And they have only agreed on whether there was an increase six times. </p>
<p>When one form of the data shows an increase and the other does not, the minister has a choice about which figure to highlight.</p>
<p>In the September quarter, the actual emissions gave bad news (an increase), and the adjusted emissions gave good news (a reduction). Taylor chose to refer to the adjusted data, <a href="https://minister.environment.gov.au/price/news/2019/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fall-14-cent-september-quarter">as did the then environment minister Melissa Price</a>, who had portfolio responsibility for emissions reduction at the time. </p>
<p>Today, this was flipped. The actual emissions showed good news (a reduction) and the adjusted data showed bad news (an increase). </p>
<p>It’s refreshing, then, to see Taylor choose to focus on the adjusted emissions data this time around, when he could have chosen the spin route and focused on the fact that the raw data showed a decrease between quarters.</p>
<h2>So what <em>does</em> it all mean?</h2>
<p>What we can say without any equivocation at all is that since 2015, in the wake of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/obituary-australias-carbon-price-29217">carbon price repeal</a> the preceding July, Australia’s greenhouse emissions have increased. On the government’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf#page=14">own projections</a> , this trend is not expected to change.</p>
<p>Even if the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-to-announce-2-billion-over-10-years-for-climate-fund-112387">Climate Solutions Package</a> delivers the amount of emissions reductions that have been promised (and it is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/experts-find-integrity-issues-with-coalition-s-direct-action-policy-20190416-p51eoj.html">unclear that it will</a>), the overall effect will be to stabilise emissions rather than bring them down. This is because the government intends to use <a href="https://theconversation.com/carry-over-credits-and-carbon-offsets-are-hot-topics-this-election-but-what-do-they-actually-mean-116748">Kyoto carryover credits to help meet its Paris Agreement goal</a>, rather than using fresh carbon reductions to deliver in full.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-two-decades-to-avoid-the-most-damaging-impacts-of-climate-change-104409">Australia has two decades to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change</a>
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<p>Stabilisation is not enough. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made clear in its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uns-1-5-c-special-climate-report-at-a-glance-104547">Special Report on 1.5°C</a> last year, deep cuts are required to ensure a safe climate. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a>, while calling on all nations to do their part, says rich countries such as Australia should take the lead.</p>
<p>The need to reduce emissions is pressing. And while the raw emissions figures may be down this quarter, this is not meaningful progress. Far more meaningful is the fact that Australia has no effective policy to limit our impact on the global climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Baxter receives funding from the Energy Transition Hub.</span></em></p>Australia’s new emissions data for the December 2018 quarter show a rise on the previous quarter, although the raw figures actually dropped. Here’s what that all means.Tim Baxter, Fellow - Melbourne Law School; Associate - Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167482019-05-09T20:09:14Z2019-05-09T20:09:14ZCarry-over credits and carbon offsets are hot topics this election – but what do they actually mean?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273453/original/file-20190509-183086-1kb6u0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5455%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Organisations can use offsets as part of their emission reduction strategy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In this election, often dubbed the “climate election”, voters are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/23/politicians-reluctance-on-climate-change-is-bizarre-action-would-not-only-be-right-but-popular">refusing</a> to settle for weak policies on climate change.</p>
<p>But between the “will they/won’t they” question of whether the coalition will meet their climate targets and the costing of the ALP’s targets, there is a lot of misunderstanding, even among experts. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, even the best-informed voter is liable to struggle, particularly when generic terms like “carbon credits” are used to describe completely different things.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-counting-on-cooking-the-books-to-meet-its-climate-targets-110768">Australia is counting on cooking the books to meet its climate targets</a>
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<p>Broadly, carbon credits work as a certificate permitting someone to emit greenhouse gases. To assess Australia’s performance, it’s important to understand the differences between the types of certificate. </p>
<p>Just because we <em>can</em> count something as climate performance does not mean we <em>should</em>. Both approaches from the two major parties have their own issues, but that does not mean they are equal.</p>
<h2>What are Kyoto carry-over credits and carbon offsets?</h2>
<h3>Kyoto carry-over credits</h3>
<p>Carry-over credits are “certificates” that translate our international commitments as a number of tonnes. These credits represent emissions we could have released into the atmosphere under our international commitments, but didn’t.</p>
<p>As we come to the end of the second international commitment period, we have a lot of leftover credits. The government wants to use credits from the first and second periods (2008-2012 and 2013-2020) to satisfy our obligations under the third (2021-2030).</p>
<h3>Carbon offset credits</h3>
<p>In the case of offsets, these certificates come from actions that reduce emissions. These actions should be measurable and new. Sadly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-miscounting-greenhouse-emissions-reductions-88950">they do not always meet that simple standard</a>.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-miscounting-greenhouse-emissions-reductions-88950">The government is miscounting greenhouse emissions reductions</a>
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<p>Offset credits are a trading “currency” that, in principle, reduces the overall cost of emission reduction. </p>
<p>Emission reduction can be costly or difficult for some, and offsets allow individuals or businesses to buy certificates from others who can cut or capture emissions at lower cost.</p>
<p>Rules to create, trade and monitor offsets can be set at an international, regional or national level. Some offsetting is voluntary, but most is to comply with legal requirements.</p>
<h2>The carry-over credit debate</h2>
<p>The Coalition <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf#page=8">plans to use credit from our “over-achievement” in meeting Kyoto targets</a>, as a shortcut to meet the Paris Agreement targets. </p>
<p>Under the Paris Agreement, Australia has voluntarily agreed to reduce its cumulative emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. If we use the Kyoto-era credit for the Paris Agreement, it will take only a 15% reduction on 2005 levels to successfully meet our commitment. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273434/original/file-20190509-183086-9ptmut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s current and projected emissions and targets with Kyoto carry-over credit transfer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOisdjzv8Gs">Tim Baxter, 'In a Canter'? Demystifying Australia's Emissions Budget for Paris.</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the Kyoto Protocol only applied to developed countries, while the Paris agreement applies to many developing countries. </p>
<p>This means many signatories to Paris have no “carry-over” credits they can use. Among those developed nations that do have this credit, almost all <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/new-zealand-rules-out-using-kyoto-credits-for-paris-australia-shtum-20181211-p50llv.html">have said</a> they will not use Kyoto carry-over credits to meet their Paris commitments. </p>
<p>So the coalition’s position is widely seen as <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-counting-on-cooking-the-books-to-meet-its-climate-targets-110768">morally dubious</a>. And <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/scott-morrison-s-pea-and-thimble-trick-20190226-p51090.html">there are real questions</a> around whether our supposed credit from the Kyoto era can be used at all.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">Flying home for Christmas? Carbon offsets are important, but they won't fix plane pollution</a>
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<p>Given the nature of the Paris Agreement, the international community will unlikely enforce an express ban on using carry-over credit.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean we should use it. Australia’s international reputation depends on rejecting the use of Kyoto carry-over. More importantly, so does our climate.</p>
<h2>Carbon offsets</h2>
<p>Under the Kyoto Protocol, several offsetting schemes were created between countries, so-called “flexible mechanisms”. Among these emission reduction opportunities is the <a href="https://cdm.unfccc.int/Registry/index.html">Clean Development Mechanism</a>. </p>
<p>The Clean Development Mechanism is an offset scheme where developed countries fund emission reduction action in developing countries. </p>
<p>If projects meet the requirements of the mechanism, the developing country claims certificates equal to the amount of emissions reduction they can prove. They then sell the certificates they have earned to developed countries. </p>
<p>This scheme has seen a number of renewable energy projects constructed, such as <a href="https://offset.climateneutralnow.org/">hydroelectric dams</a> and projects that consume waste to create electricity.</p>
<h2>Offsetting carbon voluntarily</h2>
<p>Voluntary use of carbon offsets has also grown. For example, Australia’s voluntary <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/government/carbon-neutral/ncos">National Carbon Offsets Standard</a> allows organisations to use offsets as part of their emission reduction strategy.</p>
<p>Australia’s Carbon Farming Initiative is one such example. This offsetting scheme was originally designed by the ALP, but now underpins the coalition’s Emissions Reduction Fund. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nationals-should-support-carbon-farming-not-coal-94112">The Nationals should support carbon farming, not coal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="http://offsetsmonitor.org.au/">Projects</a> registered under this scheme can create Australian Carbon Credit Units through methods <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/About-the-Emissions-Reduction-Fund">such as</a> revegetation, capture and combustion of methane or surrender of land clearing rights. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273511/original/file-20190509-183100-1potu84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney’s School Strike 4 Climate, March 2019. Climate change is one of the top issues voters care about in the upcoming election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government buys these credits through reverse auctions – one buyer with many potential sellers. They’re also frequently purchased by Australian facilities caught by the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a> (a framework for the largest emitters to measure, report and manage their emissions) and individuals looking to voluntarily offset their own emissions. </p>
<p>The ALP plans to tighten the baselines under the safeguard mechanism, compelling Australia’s major emitters, such as our largest resource companies, to either reduce on-site emissions or purchase Australian Carbon Credit Units.</p>
<p><a href="http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/using-international-units-help-meet-australias-emissions-reduction-targets">In a 2014 report,</a> the Climate Change Authority recommended Australia adopt an emission reduction target between 45% and 65% below 2005 levels by 2030. It noted international carbon offsets would help ensure Australia could meet this more ambitious target. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fixing-the-gap-between-labors-greenhouse-gas-goals-and-their-policies-115550">Fixing the gap between Labor's greenhouse gas goals and their policies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The ALP’s approach is superficially compatible with the Climate Change Authority, though it plans to negotiate the detail if elected. A lot will hang on where these negotiations fall.</p>
<p>Using offset credits is undoubtedly better than taking no action at all. But offsetting must have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/experts-find-integrity-issues-with-coalition-s-direct-action-policy-20190416-p51eoj.html">integrity</a>, not accounting sleight-of-hand. If genuine, they can help cut global emissions at the lowest cost while also delivering local social, economic and environmental benefits.</p>
<p>It is important offsetting methods continue to be refined and debated, while keeping a critical eye on whether they provide environmental benefit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116748/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears is an honorary Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a consultant, as well as an adviser to a range of industry associations and public interest groups. His investments in managed funds include firms that benefit from growth in clean energy. He has shares in Hepburn Wind.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Baxter receives funding from the Energy Transition Hub. </span></em></p>Australia’s international reputation depends on rejecting the use of Kyoto carry-over. More importantly, so does our climate.Alan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityTim Baxter, Fellow - Melbourne Law School; Associate - Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167242019-05-08T20:12:11Z2019-05-08T20:12:11ZNZ introduces groundbreaking zero carbon bill, including targets for agricultural methane<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273277/original/file-20190508-183083-12mudi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=145%2C179%2C7318%2C4800&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Agriculture – including methane from cows and sheep – currently contributes almost half of New Zealand's greenhouse emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s long-awaited <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-bill">zero carbon bill</a> will create sweeping changes to the management of emissions, setting a global benchmark with ambitious reduction targets for all major greenhouse gases.</p>
<p>The bill includes two separate targets – one for the long-lived greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, and another target specifically for biogenic methane, produced by livestock and landfill waste.</p>
<p>Launching the bill, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Carbon dioxide is the most important thing we need to tackle – that’s why we’ve taken a net zero carbon approach. Agriculture is incredibly important to New Zealand, but it also needs to be part of the solution. That is why we have listened to the science and also heard the industry and created a specific target for biogenic methane.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-bill">Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill</a> will:</p>
<ul>
<li>Create a target of reducing all greenhouse gases, except biogenic methane, to net zero by 2050</li>
<li>Create a separate target to reduce emissions of biogenic methane by 10% by 2030, and 24-47% by 2050 (relative to 2017 levels) </li>
<li>Establish a new, independent climate commission to provide emissions budgets, expert advice, and monitoring to help keep successive governments on track</li>
<li>Require government to implement policies for climate change risk assessment, a national adaptation plan, and progress reporting on implementation of the plan.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-hitting-hard-across-new-zealand-official-report-finds-115661">Climate change is hitting hard across New Zealand, official report finds</a>
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</p>
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<h2>Bringing in agriculture</h2>
<p>Preparing the bill has been a lengthy process. The government was committed to working with its coalition partners and also with the opposition National Party, to ensure the bill’s long-term viability. A consultation process in 2018 yielded 15,000 submissions, more than <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/node/24401">90% of which</a> asked for an advisory, independent climate commission, provision for adapting to the effects of climate change and a target of net zero by 2050 for all gasses. </p>
<p>Throughout this period there has been discussion of the role and responsibility of agriculture, which <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2017">contributes 48% of New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions</a>. This is an important issue not just for New Zealand and all agricultural nations, but for world food supply. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=807&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=807&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/273276/original/file-20190508-183112-f5jfsv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=807&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ministry for the Environment</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another critical question involved forestry. Pathways to net zero involve planting a lot of trees, but this is a short-term solution with only partly understood consequences. Recently, the <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/">Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment</a> suggested an approach in which forestry could <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/our-work/news-insights/media-release-climate-policy-needs-a-landscape-approach">offset only agricultural, non-fossil emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Now we know how the government has threaded its way between these difficult choices.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-environmental-watchdog-challenges-climate-policy-on-farm-emissions-and-forestry-offsets-114281">NZ's environmental watchdog challenges climate policy on farm emissions and forestry offsets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Separate targets for different gases</h2>
<p>In signing the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, New Zealand agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C and to make efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The bill is guided by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf">report</a>, which details three pathways to limit warming to 1.5°C. All of them involve significant reductions in agricultural methane (by 23%-69% by 2050). </p>
<p>Farmers will be pleased with the “two baskets” approach, in which biogenic methane is treated differently from other gasses. But the bill does require total biogenic emissions to fall. They cannot be offset by planting trees. The climate commission, once established, and the minister will have to come up with policies that actually reduce emissions. </p>
<p>In the short term, that will likely involve decisions about livestock stocking rates: retiring the least profitable sheep and beef farms, and improving efficiency in the dairy industry with fewer animals but increased productivity on the remaining land. Longer term options include methane inhibitors, selective breeding, and a possible methane vaccine. </p>
<h2>Ambitious net zero target</h2>
<p>Net zero by 2050 on all other gasses, including offsetting by forestry, is still an ambitious target. New Zealand’s emissions <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12221417">rose sharply in 2017</a> and effective mechanisms to phase out fossil fuels are not yet in place. It is likely that with <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12142444">protests</a> in Auckland over a local 10 cents a litre fuel tax – albeit brought in to fund public transport and not as a carbon tax per se – the government may be feeling they have to tread delicately here. </p>
<p>But the bill requires real action. The first carbon budget will cover 2022-2025. Work to strengthen New Zealand’s <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/ets">Emissions Trading Scheme</a> is already underway and will likely involve a falling cap on emissions that will raise the carbon price, currently capped at NZ$25.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nzs-emissions-trading-scheme-should-have-an-auction-reserve-price-102984">Why NZ's emissions trading scheme should have an auction reserve price</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In initial reaction to the bill, the <a href="http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1905/S00072/national-welcomes-climate-change-commission.htm">National Party</a> welcomed all aspects of it except the 24-47% reduction target for methane, which they believe should have been left to the climate commission. Coalition partner <a href="http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1905/S00071/winston-peters-press-release-on-climate-change-announcement.htm">New Zealand First</a> is talking up their contribution and how they had the agriculture sector’s interests at heart.</p>
<p>While climate activist groups welcomed the bill, <a href="http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1905/S00097/toothless-zero-carbon-bill-has-bark-but-no-bite.htm">Greenpeace</a> criticised the bill for not being legally enforceable and described the 10% cut in methane as “miserly”. The youth action group <a href="http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1905/S00096/generation-zero-celebrates-zero-carbon-act-announcement.htm">Generation Zero</a>, one of the first to call for zero carbon legislation, is understandably delighted. Even so, they say the law does not match the urgency of the crisis. And it’s true that since the bill was first mooted, we have seen a stronger sense of urgency, from the <a href="https://rebellion.earth/international-rebellion/">Extinction Rebellion</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWsM9-_zrKo">Greta Thunberg</a> to the UK parliament’s declaration of a climate emergency.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-becomes-first-country-to-declare-a-climate-emergency-116428">UK becomes first country to declare a 'climate emergency'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand’s bill is a pioneering effort to respond in detail to the 1.5ºC target and to base a national plan around the science reported by the IPCC. </p>
<p>Many other countries are in the process of setting and strengthening targets. Ireland’s Parliamentary Joint Committee on Climate recently <a href="https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/joint_committee_on_climate_action/reports/2019/2019-03-28_report-climate-change-a-cross-party-consensus-for-action_en.pdf">recommended</a> adopting a target of net zero for all gasses by 2050. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-48123960">Scotland</a> will strengthen its target to net zero carbon dioxide and methane by 2040 and net zero all gasses by 2045. Less than a week after this announcement, the Scottish government <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48191110">dropped</a> plans to cut air departure fees (<a href="https://greens.scot/sites/default/files/Air%20Departure%20Tax%20report%20for%20Green%20MSPs.pdf">currently</a> £13 for short and £78 for long flights, and double for business class). </p>
<p>One country that has set a specific goals for agricultural methane is Uruguay, with a <a href="http://ccacoalition.org/en/news/uruguays-minister-agriculture-tackling-enteric-methane">target</a> of reducing emissions per kilogram of beef by 33%-46% by 2030. In the countries mentioned above, not so different from New Zealand, agriculture produces 35%, 23%, and 55% of emissions, respectively.</p>
<p>New Zealand has learned from processes that have worked elsewhere, notably the UK’s Climate Change Commission, which attempts to balance science, public involvement and the sovereignty of parliament. Perhaps our present experience in balancing the demands of different interest groups and economic sectors, with diverse mitigation opportunities and costs, can now help others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s government has released a bill that sets targets to bring long-lived greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050 and reduce emissions of the shorter-lived methane by 10% within a decade.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1163862019-05-02T09:11:56Z2019-05-02T09:11:56ZNew net zero emissions target won’t end UK’s contribution to global warming – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272115/original/file-20190501-117612-1i4debb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The emissions from this tanker don't count towards the UK's emissions target</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/southampton-uk-sept-18-loaded-nyk-86264233?src=DlGxEk9TrRLG3oKBNeUrYQ-1-5">Rosli Othman/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Six months on from the UN’s landmark <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">1.5°C report</a>, which urged immediate global action to prevent global warming from rising beyond this dangerous level, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">advised</a> the UK government to go zero-carbon by 2050. The committee’s report asserts that the target constitutes the country’s “highest possible ambition” and that it is not credible to aim for an earlier date.</p>
<p>We disagree. While the report does challenge the government to step up its climate ambition, our view is that creative carbon accounting and an unwillingness to prioritise <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-stop-climate-change-six-ways-to-make-the-world-a-better-place-115944">the planet’s health</a> over economic growth leaves the committee’s target lacking the urgency truly required to combat the climate emergency recently <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126677">declared</a> by even the government itself.</p>
<h2>Creative accounting</h2>
<p>Before assessing whether 2050 is an appropriate date, its important to unpack exactly how the committee defines net zero. Based on <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/">international guidance</a> from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UK’s target only includes territorial carbon emissions – those that are emitted directly within the country’s borders.</p>
<p>The committee’s <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">report</a> highlights that the country’s territorial carbon footprint has fallen by 30% from 2008. But as Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg highlighted to parliament, using this figure as a mark of the country’s climate leadership amounts to nothing more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/25/uks-creative-carbon-accounting-breaches-climate-deal-say-critics">creative carbon accounting</a>, glossing over the UK’s role in emissions that occur outside its borders.</p>
<p>The UK economy is <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/articles/fivefactsabouttheukservicesector/2016-09-29">primarily driven</a> by its service sector, and the value of its imports is roughly <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/february2019">triple</a> that of its exports. The production and transport of these imported goods are a direct consequence of the UK’s consumption habits, but these emissions aren’t counted by the committee because they occur beyond its shores. Including these emissions and excluding emissions from exports to other countries, the UK’s carbon footprint is <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">70% higher</a> than the figure used by the committee.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272104/original/file-20190501-113852-1128owo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While territorial emissions have dropped, the UK’s consumption-based emissions are closely tied to economic growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kate Scott/University of Manchester</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Crucially, this alternative definition shows that emissions are still closely tied to the UK’s GDP, only notably reducing during the most recent <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794557/Consumption_emissions_April19.pdf">financial crisis</a> and remaining steady in recent years. The CCC does say that it will monitor the UK’s consumption-based emissions, and highlights that the country must avoid “<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/18/15331040/emissions-outsourcing-carbon-leakage">offshoring</a>” its territorial emissions by importing more goods. But it stops well short of addressing the fundamental elephant in the room – that to seriously tackle emissions, the UK must <a href="http://kevinanderson.info/blog/avoiding-dangerous-climate-change-demands-de-growth-strategies-from-wealthier-nations/">move away</a> from an economy that prioritises short-term growth over radical emission reductions.</p>
<p>On the surface, the most glaring omission in past carbon budgets at least appears to have been addressed. Emissions from international aviation and shipping have long been excluded from national targets in favour of international reduction efforts such as <a href="https://www.iata.org/policy/environment/Pages/corsia.aspx">the UN’s CORSIA</a> or the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en">EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme</a>. The committee now argues that “emissions from international aviation and shipping cannot be ignored”. </p>
<p>But it only recommends their inclusion in the UK’s carbon budget from 2033. This is 14 years too late. UK aviation emissions <a href="http://www.manchesterclimate.com/sites/default/files/Greater%20Manchester%20Carbon%20Budget.pdf">must not grow</a> in the next decade if it is to prevent the worst effects of global warming. The time to act on aviation and shipping is now.</p>
<h2>Highest possible ambition?</h2>
<p>Even placing accounting issues aside, the 2050 target is unambitious and gives a false impression that there is time to play with. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gummer">Lord Deben</a>, chair of the committee, is almost certainly right that Extinction Rebellion’s <a href="https://rebellion.earth/the-truth/demands/">demand</a> that the country reaches net zero by 2025 is physically impossible. Shedding the country’s attachment to growth <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800912003333">does not on its own</a> lead to a neutral carbon ledger. The massive amounts of investment, innovation and infrastructure required to get there would not take full effect within six years.</p>
<p>But to say that anything earlier than a 2050 target isn’t credible is a grave and dangerous mistake. At current levels of emissions, the world will reach 1.5°C of warming in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">12 years</a>. Each year that the UK delays radical action, the necessary yearly emissions cuts to hit net zero become greater, making it <a href="http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/global_mitigation_curves.shtml">ever harder</a> to avoid catastrophic warming. Even with immediate action, the world is still pinning hopes on carbon capture and storage technologies that <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/354/6309/182.full.pdf">may never</a> work at scale. Working towards an earlier target with steeper emissions cuts would require initial uncomfortable changes, but would massively lower our reliance on these incredibly uncertain technologies.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272116/original/file-20190501-117607-117d4uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">According to the committee, fossil fuel powered cars should be phased out sooner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/trowbridge-uk-oct-14-2015-motorists-371297956?src=s0sW_h6bMA-8ASA1EvspmQ-1-6">1000 Words/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The report’s claim that the 2050 target represents the UK’s “highest possible ambition” speaks more to <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/2013/10/science-says-revolt">the country’s economic priorities</a> than to reality. Ten years ago, the committee wrote that an <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/building-a-low-carbon-economy-the-uks-contribution-to-tackling-climate-change-2/">80% reduction</a> in emissions by 2050 (against 1990 levels) was at the limit of feasibility.</p>
<p>Now, the committee has changed its mind, stating that net zero can be achieved by the same date, for the same price: 1-2% of GDP. This small percentage is seen as the maximum acceptable cost of mitigating climate change, even in the face of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/15/climate-change-could-wipe-20-trillion-assets-bank-england-warns/">trillion-pound</a> losses that are forecast if we do not take sufficient action. Is this really all the fate of present and future generations at risk of climate change is worth?</p>
<p>The report does hold some positives. It is unequivocal that current policy is insufficient to achieve even the UK’s existing targets and urges a ramping up in actionable efforts. It criticises <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868">plans to phase out fossil fuel powered cars by 2040</a> as too late and too vague, and calls for the government to confront failures to plant enough carbon-absorbing trees and decarbonise heating systems.</p>
<p>But in focusing on what is “feasible” rather than necessary, the committee’s trajectories simply do not reflect the radical carbon reductions the UK can make, and will only end the UK’s contribution to global warming on paper.</p>
<p>The year 2025 may be an unrealistic target, but missing that by a few years is much less dangerous than hitting a 2050 target comfortably. We need to take every leap we can and fast, even if it is into the dark. As Greta Thunberg <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/our-house-is-on-fire-greta-thunberg16-urges-leaders-to-act-on-climate">says</a>, if your house is on fire, you don’t tell people that the fire brigade will be along in a few hours – you act.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116386">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Blakey volunteers with the City of Manchester CO2 Monitoring Group. Manchester has committed to becoming a zero carbon city by 2038.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson co-founded Climate Emergency Manchester, which initiated a petition calling on Manchester City Council "to declare a climate emergency, with a target to be “zero carbon” by the year 2030, with a proportionate share of Manchester Airport’s emissions (35.5 percent owned by the Council) included in the carbon budget it sets."</span></em></p>Contrary to the advice of the UK’s climate advisers, aiming for net zero before 2050 is credible – but the country must reassess how much its future is worth.Joe Blakey, Lecturer, University of ManchesterMarc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1131722019-03-10T19:22:48Z2019-03-10T19:22:48ZTo reduce fire risk and meet climate targets, over 300 scientists call for stronger land clearing laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262837/original/file-20190308-150700-3qu1wc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Without significant tree cover, dry and dusty landscapes can result.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Don Driscoll</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-a-global-top-ten-deforester-and-queensland-is-leading-the-way-87259">high rates of forest loss</a> and weakening land clearing laws are increasing bushfire risk, and undermining our ability to meet national targets aimed at curbing climate change.</p>
<p>This dire situation is why we are among the more than 300 scientists and practitioners who have signed a <a href="https://www.ecolsoc.org.au/scientists-declaration-strong-legislation-needed-curb-australias-accelerating-rate-land-clearing">declaration</a> calling for governments to restore, or better strengthen regulations to protect native vegetation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-on-the-rise-as-legal-thinning-proves-far-from-clear-cut-79419">Land clearing on the rise as legal 'thinning' proves far from clear-cut</a>
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<p>Land clearing laws have been contentious in several states for years. New South Wales <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/vegetation/">relaxed its land clearing controls</a> in 2017, triggering concerns over irreversible environmental damage. Although it is too early to know the impact of those changes, a <a href="https://www.wwf.org.au/ArticleDocuments/546/pub-bulldozing-of-bushland-nearly-triples-around-moree-and-collarenebri-after-safeguards-repealed-in-nsw-sep18.pdf.aspx?Embed=Y">recent analysis</a> found that land clearing has increased sharply in some areas since the laws changed.</p>
<p>The Queensland Labor government’s 2018 <a href="https://www.dnrme.qld.gov.au/land-water/initiatives/vegetation-management-laws">strengthening</a> of land clearing laws came after years of systematic <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">weakening of these protections</a>. Yet the issue has remained politically divisive. While discussing a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Standing_Committee_on_Agriculture_and_Water_Resources/Landpolicyimpacts">federal inquiry</a> into the impact of these policies on farmers, federal agriculture minister David Littleproud <a href="https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/5799021/littleproud-launches-qld-bushfire-inquiry/">suggested</a> that the strenthening of regulations may have worsened Queensland’s December bushfires.</p>
<p>We argue such an assertion is at odds with scientific evidence. And, while the conservation issues associated with widespread land clearing are generally well understood by the public, the consequences for farmers and fire risks are much less so.</p>
<h2>Tree loss can increase fire risk</h2>
<p>During December’s heatwave in northern Queensland, some regions were at “catastrophic” bushfire risk for the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/04/bushfires-tropics-queensland-terrifying-new-reality-cyclones-flooding">first time since ratings began</a>. Even normally wet rainforests, such as at Eungella National Park inland from Mackay, sustained burns in some areas during “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/eungella-rainforest-future-questioned-by-expert/10578802">unprecedented</a>” fire conditions.</p>
<p>There is no evidence to support the suggestion that 2018’s <a href="https://www.dnrme.qld.gov.au/land-water/initiatives/vegetation-management-laws">land clearing law</a> changes contributed to the fires. No changes were made to how vegetation can be managed to reduce fire risk. This is governed under separate laws, which remained unaltered.</p>
<p>In fact, shortly after the fires, Queensland’s land clearing figures were released. They showed that in the <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/91876/landcover-change-in-queensland-2016-17-and-2017-18.pdf">three years to June 2018</a>, an area equivalent to roughly 570,000 Melbourne Cricket Grounds (1,138,000 hectares) of bushland was cleared, including 284,000 hectares of remnant (old-growth) ecosystems.</p>
<p>Tree clearing can worsen fire risk in several ways. It can affect the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL031524">regional climate</a>. In parts of eastern Australia, tree cover reductions are estimated to have increased summer surface temperatures by up to 2°C and southwest Western Australia by 0.4–0.8°C, reduced rainfall in southeast Australia, and made droughts <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2009GL037666">hotter and longer</a>.</p>
<p>Removing forest vegetation depletes soil moisture. Large, intact areas of forest typically have cooler, wetter microclimates buffered from extreme temperatures. Over time, some forest types can even <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/108/38/15887">become fire-resistant</a>, but smaller patches of trees are typically drier and more flammable.</p>
<p>Trees also form a natural windbreak that can slow the spread of bushfires. An <a href="https://safecom-files.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/current/docs/analysis_of_farming_practices_on_bushfire_risk_and_prevention_december_2008.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3Danalysis_of_farming_practices_on_bushfire_risk_and_prevention_december_2008.pdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20190308T012554Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=900&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAJQ4Q62CAGOAFH3RA%2F20190308%2Fap-southeast-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=53338aae7d9778adc0c9575819bd8076f2da41c828fa8c7bd31e96aea00a689f">analysis</a> of the 2005 Wangary fire in South Australia found that fires spread most rapidly through paddocks, rather than through areas lined with native trees.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262851/original/file-20190308-150706-h07xe2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Trends from 1978 to 2017 in the annual (July to June) sum of the daily Forest Fire Danger Index, an indicator of the severity of fire weather conditions. Positive trends, shown in the yellow to red colours, indicate increasing length and intensity of the fire weather season. Areas where there are sparse data coverage, such as central parts of Western Australia, are faded.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology/State of the Climate 2018</span></span>
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<p>Finally, Australia’s increasing risk of bushfire and worsening drought are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-01/why-qld-bushfires-have-been-described-as-abnormal-unprecedented/10571122">driven by global climate change</a>, to which land clearing is a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01939.x">major contributor</a>.</p>
<h2>Farmers on the frontline of environmental risk</h2>
<p>Extensive tree clearing also leads to problems for farmers, including rising <a href="http://www.waterquality.gov.au/issues/salinity">salinity, reduced water quality</a>, and <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/australia%E2%80%99s-land-clearing-rate-once-again-among-highest-world">soil erosion</a>. Governments and rural communities spend significant money and labour redressing the aftermath of excessive clearing.</p>
<p>Sensible regulation of native vegetation removal does not restrict existing agriculture, but rather seeks to support sustainable production. Retained trees can help deal with many environmental risks that hamper <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049158.2012.10676402">agricultural productivity</a>, including animal health, long-term pasture productivity, risks to the water cycle, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/photos/2015/08/13/4292535.htm">pest control</a>, and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0070-8">human well-being</a>.</p>
<p>Rampant tree clearing is undoing climate policy too. Much of the federal government’s A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund has gone towards tree planting. But it would take almost this entire sum just to replace the trees <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/land/management/mapping/statewide-monitoring/slats/slats-reports">cleared in Queensland since 2012</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stopping-land-clearing-and-replanting-trees-could-help-keep-australia-cool-in-a-warmer-future-63654">Stopping land clearing and replanting trees could help keep Australia cool in a warmer future</a>
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<p>In 2019, Australians might reasonably expect that our relatively wealthy and well-educated country has moved beyond a frontier-style reliance on continued deforestation, and we would do well to better acknowledge and <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-dark-emu-and-the-blindness-of-australian-agriculture-97444">learn lessons from Indigenous Australians</a> with respect to their land management practices. </p>
<p>Yet the periodic weakening of land clearing laws in many parts of Australia has <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cobi.12189">accelerated the problem</a>. The negative impacts on industry, society and wildlife are numerous and <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/PC/PC17001">well established</a>. They should not be ignored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from a range of sources including the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program's Threatened Species Recovery Hub, the Science for Nature and People Partnership, and The New South Wales Environment Trust. She provides advice to several State and Federal government environment agencies as well as WWF-Australia, is a Director of BirdLife Australia, and is a member of the Ecological Society of Austrralia's Academic Freedom Working Group, the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers and Thinkers, and two threatened species recovery teams.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Griffin receives funding from a range of organisations, private foundations and local governments, including the Australian Research Council, the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment, the Tom Farrell Institute, the NSW Envrionmental Trust, the Australian Museum, and various local councils. These funds support her research in zoology. She has served as a member of Council of the Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behaviour, and currently serves as editor and associate editor for two scientific journals, Behavioral Ecology and Proceedings of the Royal Society, Biological Sciences.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>April Reside is a scientific advisor for the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team and is on Birdlife Australia's Research and Conservation Committee. In the past, April has received funding from the Regional NRM planning for climate change program, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, and the NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Laurance receives funding from various scientific and philanthropic organisations. He is the director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science at James Cook University, and founded and directs ALERT--the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers & Thinkers, a science-advocacy group that reaches 1-2 million readers weekly.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Driscoll receives funding from the Herman Slade Foundation, OEH NSW Environmental Grants program, DELWP Vic, and Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. He is President of the Ecological Society of Australia, Director of the Centre of Integrative Ecology and Director of TechnEcology at Deakin University. Don is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and Society for Conservation Biology.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australia and Pacific Science Foundation, The Hermon Slade Foundation, Australian Geographic, and Parks Victoria. Euan Ritchie is a Director (Media Working Group) of the Ecological Society of Australia, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian Government. Steve is a Director of Terrain (Wet Tropics) Natural Resource Management Ltd, Independent Chair of the Wet Tropics Healthy Waterways Partnership, and Chair of the National Committee for Geographical Sciences (Australian Academy of Science).</span></em></p>A new petition is urging state and federal governments to rein in Australia’s rampant land clearing, which worsens the risk of bushfires and threatens to undo the work of the Emissions Reduction Fund.Martine Maron, ARC Future Fellow and Associate Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandAndrea S. Griffin, Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology, University of NewcastleApril Reside, Researcher, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of QueenslandBill Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook UniversityDon Driscoll, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, Deakin UniversityEuan Ritchie, Associate Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversitySteve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1107682019-01-31T03:46:03Z2019-01-31T03:46:03ZAustralia is counting on cooking the books to meet its climate targets<p>A <a href="https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/oecd-environmental-performance-reviews-australia-2019_9789264310452-en#page1">new OECD report</a> has warned that Australia risks falling short of its 2030 emissions target unless it implements “a major effort to move to a low-carbon model”.</p>
<p>This view is consistent both with official <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf">government projections</a> released late last year, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">independent analysis</a> of Australia’s emissions trajectory. Yet the government still insists we are on track, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-11-28/climate-un-environment-report-australia-not-on-track-paris/10554058">claiming as recently as November</a> that the 2030 target will be reached “in a canter”.</p>
<p>What’s really going on? Does the government have any data or modelling to serve as a basis for Morrison’s confidence? And if so, why doesn’t it tell us?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)</a>
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<p>The government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf">emission projections report</a> actually presents three scenarios: the “baseline” projection, which forecasts that emissions will rise by 3% by 2030, plus two other scenarios in which economic growth (and thus demand for fossil fuel consumption) is higher or lower than the baseline. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256246/original/file-20190130-108367-14oirgg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Range of scenarios for Australian emissions. Vertical axis represents greenhouse emissions measured in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Emissions Projection Report, Figure 15</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the graph shows, all three of these scenarios would see Australia miss its 26-28% emissions reduction target by a wide margin. So why claim that our emissions are on track? The answer, as is so often the case with emissions targets, lies in the fine print.</p>
<p>The government is indeed poised to deliver on the “letter of the law” of its Paris commitment if two things play out. First, if it claims credit from overdelivering on Australia’s 2010 and 2020 commitments. And second, if the “low demand” scenario is the one that eventuates. </p>
<p>To reach our Paris target, the government estimates that we will need to reduce emissions by the equivalent of 697 million tonnes of carbon dioxide before 2030. It also calculates that the overdelivery on previous climate targets already represents a saving of 367Mt, and that low economic demand would save a further 571Mt. That adds up to 938Mt of emissions reductions, outperforming the target by 35% – a canter that would barely work up a sweat.</p>
<h2>How would this scenario actually eventuate?</h2>
<p>Let’s leave aside the technical question of whether it’s legitimate to count past performance towards future emissions targets, and focus for now on how the low-demand economic scenario might become reality.</p>
<p>The government’s report contains no discussion on the basis of the “low demand” scenario. But history suggests the annual baseline estimates of 2030 emissions have overestimated future emissions, with revisions downwards over time. For example, the 2018 projection for 2030 emissions is 28% lower than the 2012 projection for the same date (see figure 2 <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf">here</a>).</p>
<p>In the real world, meanwhile, change is evident. Households and businesses are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-solar-panel-and-battery-revolution-how-will-your-state-measure-up-76866">installing solar panels</a>, not least to guard against high power bills. Businesses are signing power purchase agreements with renewable energy suppliers for much the same reason. State and local governments are pursuing increasingly ambitious <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-since-the-sa-blackout-whos-winning-the-high-wattage-power-play-84416">clean energy and climate policies</a>. Some energy-intensive industries may be driven offshore by our high gas prices.</p>
<p>New technology such as electric vehicles, ongoing improvement in energy efficiency, and emerging business models that break the power of big energy companies are transforming our economy. Investment in low-emission public transport infrastructure means its share of travel will increase. Farmers are cutting methane emissions by installing biogas production equipment.</p>
<p>Other studies also support the idea that Australia may indeed outperform its baseline emission scenario. ANU researchers <a href="http://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903">recently predicted</a> that “emissions in the electricity sector will decline by more than 26% in 2020-21, and will meet Australia’s entire Paris target of 26% reduction across all sectors of the economy (not just "electricity’s fair share”) in 2024-25".</p>
<p>The government’s baseline electricity scenario uses the Australian Electricity Market Operator’s “neutral” scenario. But AEMO’s “weak” scenario would see 2030 demand in the National Electricity Market 18% lower than the neutral scenario (see figure 13 <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/NEM_ESOO/2018/2018-Electricity-Statement-of-Opportunities.pdf">here</a>).</p>
<p>Of course, many of these changes are happening in spite of the government’s policy settings, rather than because of them. Still, a win’s a win!</p>
<h2>Emissions in context</h2>
<p>But is hitting the target in purely technical terms really a win? In truth, it would fall far short of what is really necessary and responsible.</p>
<p>This is partly because of the plan to use prior credit for previous emissions targets to help get us across the line for 2030. This may be allowed under the international rules. But we would be leveraging extremely weak earlier commitments. </p>
<p>For example, Australia’s 2010 Kyoto Protocol target of an 8% <em>increase</em> in emissions was laughably weak in comparison with the developed world average target of a 5% cut. Our 2020 5% reduction target is also well below the aspirations of most other countries. What’s more, several major nations have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/05/australia-climate-talks-developed-nations-cancel-carryover-emissions-reduction-credits-kyoto">declared</a> that they will exclude past “overachievements” from their 2020 commitments.</p>
<p>The government has obfuscated the issue further by deliberately conflating our electricity emission reductions target, which will be easily met, with our overall economy-wide target, which presents a much tougher challenge.</p>
<p>There’s more. Australia’s Paris pledge to reduce emissions from 2005 levels by 26-28% between 2021 and 2030 is inconsistent with our global responsibilities and with <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-countries-need-to-at-least-double-their-efforts-on-climate-study-49731">climate science</a>. The target was agreed to by the then prime minister Tony Abbott in 2015 as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">minimum needed to look credible</a>. But as the Climate Change Authority <a href="http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/Final-report-Australias-future-emissions-reduction-targets.pdf">pointed out</a>, a 2030 target of 40-60% below 2000 levels is more scientifically responsible.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">Australia's 2030 climate target puts us in the race, but at the back</a>
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<p>What is Australia’s “fair share” of the heavy lifting needed to stay below 2°C of global warming, as agreed in Paris? If all humans were entitled to release the same greenhouse emissions by 2050, the average would be around <a href="http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/pages/supplementary-draft-report-(html).html#5">2 tonnes of CO₂ per person in 2050</a>. In 2018, the average Australian was responsible for 21.5 tonnes.</p>
<p>There is plenty of heavy lifting still to do, and no point in pretending otherwise. The government must publish its data and modelling in full if its canter claims are to have any credibility.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears AM has worked for government, business, industry associations public interest groups and at universities on energy efficiency, climate response and sustainability issues since the late 1970s. He is now an honorary Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a consultant, as well as an adviser to a range of industry associations and public interest groups. His investments in managed funds include firms that benefit from growth in clean energy. He has shares in Hepburn Wind.</span></em></p>Australia’s government insists it is on track to surpass its emissions reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement. But while that may be true, it will only happen with some clever accounting.Alan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1056522019-01-15T01:29:36Z2019-01-15T01:29:36ZBuildings produce 25% of Australia’s emissions. What will it take to make them ‘green’ – and who’ll pay?<p>In signing the Paris Climate Agreement, the Australian government <a href="https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/summary_report_-_low_carbon_high_performance_20160511_1.pdf">committed to a global goal of zero net emissions by 2050</a>. Australia’s promised reductions to 2030, on a per person and emissions intensity basis, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-target">exceed even the targets</a> set by the United States, Japan, Canada, South Korea and the European Union. </p>
<p>But are we on the right track to achieve our 2030 target of 26-28% below 2005 levels? With <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523">one of the highest population growth rates in the developed world</a>, this represents at <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/factsheet-australias-2030-climate-change-target">least a 50% reduction in emissions per person over the next dozen years</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-not-on-track-to-reach-2030-paris-target-but-the-potential-is-there-102725">Australia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)</a>
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<p>Consider the impact of one sector, the built environment. The construction, operation and maintenance of buildings accounts for almost a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318754386_From_leaders_to_majority_a_frontrunner_paradox_in_built-environment_climate_governance_experimentation">quarter of greenhouse gas emissions</a> in Australia. As Australia’s population grows, to an <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0">estimated 31 million</a> in 2030, even more buildings will be needed. </p>
<p>In 2017, around <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8731.0">18,000 dwelling units were approved for construction every month</a>. Melbourne is predicted to need another <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/melbournes-continuing-population-boom-means-another-720000-homes-will-be-needed-by-2031/news-story/98872b3ab27f00891d50c694adba7abd">720,000 homes by 2031</a>; Sydney, <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/geo2.33">664,000 new homes within 20 years</a>. Australia will have <a href="https://ap01-a.alma.exlibrisgroup.com/view/delivery/61USOUTHAUS_INST/12143325290001831">10 million residential units by 2020</a>, compared to 6 million in 1990. Ordinary citizens might be too preoccupied with home ownership at any cost to worry about the level of emissions from the built environment and urban development.</p>
<h2>What’s being done to reduce these emissions?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abcb.gov.au/ncc-online/NCC?pageNumber=1&searchTerm=&sort=&results=&generalParam=%7B%22applications%22:%5B%5D,%22years%22:%5B%22%7BC4166DCC-D939-41A9-855D-D66F2AACC2D3%7D%22%5D%7D">National Construction Code of Australia</a> sets <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618304827">minimal obligatory requirements for energy efficiency</a>. Software developed by the National Housing Rating Scheme (<a href="http://www.nathers.gov.au/">NatHERS</a>) <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2093761X.2015.1025451?journalCode=tsub20">assesses compliance</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond mandatory minimum requirements in Australia are more aspirational voluntary measures. Two major measures are the National Australian Built Environment Rating System (<a href="https://www.nabers.gov.au/">NABERS</a>) and <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1256566800920/6505269-1268260567624/Mitchell.pdf">Green Star</a>. </p>
<p>This combination of obligatory and voluntary performance rating measures makes up the practical totality of our strategy for reducing built environment emissions. Still in its experimentation stage, it is <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/111568?mode=full">far from adequate</a>.</p>
<p>An effective strategy to cut emissions must <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259158759_Green_building_research-current_status_and_future_agenda_A_review">encompass the whole lifecycle</a> of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319123629_A_comparative_life_cycle_study_of_alternative_materials_for_Australian_multi-storey_apartment_building_frame_constructions_Environmental_and_economic_perspective">planning, designing, constructing</a>, operating and even decommissioning and disposal of buildings. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360132317302937">holistic vision of sustainable building</a> calls for building <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29LA.1943-4170.0000123">strategies that are less resource-intensive and pollution-producing</a>. The <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/4/981">sustainability of the urban landscape</a> is <a href="https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=847972018939494;res=IELHSS">more than the sum of the sustainability of its component buildings</a>; transport, amenities, <a href="http://www.academia.edu/28437391/Comparison_of_sustainable_community_rating_tools_in_Australia">social fabric and culture</a>, among other factors, have to be taken into account. </p>
<p>Australia’s emission reduction strategy fails to incorporate the whole range of sustainability factors that impact emissions from the built environment. </p>
<p>There are also much-reported criticisms of existing mandatory and voluntary measures. A <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/geo2.33">large</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2093761X.2015.1025451?journalCode=tsub20">volume</a> of <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/evaluation-5-star-energy-efficiency-standard-residential-buildings">research</a> details the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778817307648">failure</a> of voluntary measures to accurately evaluate energy performance and the granting of <a href="http://www.journalofgreenbuilding.com/doi/10.3992/jgb.11.2.131.1">misleading ratings based on tokenistic gestures</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/greenwashing-the-property-market-why-green-star-ratings-dont-guarantee-more-sustainable-buildings-91655">Greenwashing the property market: why 'green star' ratings don't guarantee more sustainable buildings</a>
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<p>On top of that, the strategy of using front runners to push boundaries and win over the majority has been proven ineffective, at best. We see compelling evidence in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318754386_From_leaders_to_majority_a_frontrunner_paradox_in_built-environment_climate_governance_experimentation">low level of voluntary measures</a> permeating the Australian building industry. Some major voluntary rating tools have <a href="http://theconversation.com/green-building-revolution-only-in-high-end-new-cbd-offices-24535">penetration rates of less than 0.5%</a> across the Australian building industry. </p>
<p>As for obligatory tools, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2093761X.2015.1025451?journalCode=tsub20">NatHERS-endorsed buildings</a> <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/geo2.33">have been</a> <a href="https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/elsevier/heat-stress-resistant-building-design-in-the-australian-context-CcZecyU0S5">shown</a> to <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/evaluation-5-star-energy-efficiency-standard-residential-buildings">underperform</a> against traditional “non-green” houses. </p>
<p>That said, voluntary and obligatory tools are not so much a weak link in our emission reduction strategy as the only link. And therein lies the fundamental problem.</p>
<h2>So what do the experts suggest?</h2>
<p>We conducted a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329066129_Barriers_inhibiting_the_transition_to_sustainability_within_the_Australian_construction_industry_An_investigation_of_technical_and_social_interactions">study</a> involving a cohort of 26 experts drawn from the sustainability profession. We posed the question of what must be done to generate a working strategy to improve Australia’s chances of keeping the carbon-neutral promise by 2050 was posed. Here is what the experts said:</p>
<p>Sustainability transition in Australia is failing because:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>government lacks commitment to develop effective regulations, audit performance, resolve vested interests (developers), clarify its own vision and, above all, sell that sustainability vision to the community</p></li>
<li><p>sustainability advocates are stuck in isolated silos of fragmented markets (commercial and residential) and hampered by multiple jurisdictions with varied sustainability regimes</p></li>
<li><p>most importantly, end users just do not care – nobody has bothered to communicate the Paris Accord promise to Joe and Mary Citizen, let alone explain why it matters to them.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Tweaking the rating tools further would be a good thing. Getting more than a token few buildings rated would be better. But the show-and-tell display of a pageant of beautiful, <a href="http://theconversation.com/green-building-revolution-only-in-high-end-new-cbd-offices-24535">green-rated headquarters buildings from our socially responsible corporations</a> is not going to save us. Beyond the CBD islands of our major cities lies a sea of suburban sprawl that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318754386_From_leaders_to_majority_a_frontrunner_paradox_in_built-environment_climate_governance_experimentation">continues to chew up ever more energy and resources</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-task-for-australias-energy-ministers-remove-barriers-to-better-buildings-64052">A task for Australia's energy ministers: remove barriers to better buildings</a>
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<p>It costs between <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235262457_Is_the_social_agenda_driving_sustainable_property_development_in_Melbourne_Australia">8% and 30% more than the usual costs of a building to reduce emissions</a>. Someone needs to explain to the struggling home owner why the Paris climate promise is worth it. Given the next election won’t be for a few months, our political parties still have time to formulate their pitch on who exactly is expected to pay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105652/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Igor Martek receives funding from Deakin University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>M. Reza Hosseini is affiliated with Centre for Research in Assessment and Digital Learning, Deakin University. </span></em></p>Australia’s commitments to cut emissions are on a collision course with urban growth. We need a much more comprehensive strategy to make the transition to a sustainable built environment.Igor Martek, Lecturer In Construction, Deakin UniversityM. Reza Hosseini, Lecturer in Construction, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1075652018-11-26T01:32:09Z2018-11-26T01:32:09ZLabor’s policy can smooth the energy transition, but much more will be needed to tackle emissions<p>The Labor party’s energy policy platform, <a href="http://www.billshorten.com.au/_labor_s_plan_for_more_renewable_energy_and_cheaper_power_thursday_22_november_2018">released last week</a>, is politically clever and would likely be effective. It includes plans to underwrite renewable energy and storage, and other elements that would help the energy transition along. Its approach to the transition away from coal-fired power is likely to need more work, and it will need to be accompanied by good policy in other sectors of the economy where greenhouse emissions are still climbing.</p>
<p>The politics is quite simple for Labor: support the transition to renewable electricity which is already underway and which <a href="https://theconversation.com/lowy-institute-poll-shows-australians-support-for-climate-action-at-its-highest-level-in-a-decade-98625">a large majority of Australians support</a>, and minimise the risk that its proposed policy instruments will come under effective attack in the lead-up to the 2019 election. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-energy-policy-is-savvy-now-is-it-scare-proof-107451">Grattan on Friday: Labor's energy policy is savvy – now is it scare-proof?</a>
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<p>By aiming for 50% renewables at 2030, the party has claimed the high ground. That goal and perhaps a lot more is achievable, given that the large <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/Large-scale-Renewable-Energy-Target-market-data#supply">investment pipeline</a> in electricity consists almost entirely of wind and solar projects, and that new renewables are now <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/unsubsidised-wind-and-solar-now-cheapest-form-of-bulk-energy-96453/">typically the cheapest options to produce energy with new plants</a>.</p>
<p>The question then is what policy instruments Labor would use to facilitate the transition from coal to renewables. </p>
<h1>NEG games</h1>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-dumps-emissions-legislation-to-stop-rebels-crossing-the-floor-101754">abandoned National Energy Guarantee (NEG) policy</a> is now a political asset for Labor. If the Coalition were to support it under a Labor government, the policy would effectively be immune to political attack. If the Coalition were to block it, Labor could blame many future problems in electricity on the Coalition’s refusal to endorse a policy that it originally devised.</p>
<p>The NEG has many warts. Some of the compromises in its design were necessary to get it through the Coalition party room. That no longer matters, and so it should be possible to make improvements. One such improvement would be to allow for an explicit carbon price in electricity under the NEG, by creating an emissions intensity obligation for electricity generators with traded certificates. This is better than the opaque model of contract obligations on electricity retailers under the original version.</p>
<h2>Underwriting renewables</h2>
<p>But the real action under a Labor government might well come from a more direct policy approach to push the deployment of renewables. In his <a href="http://www.billshorten.com.au/australia_s_energy_future_sydney_thursday_22_november_2018">energy policy speech</a> last week, Shorten foreshadowed that Labor would “invest in projects and underwrite contracts for clean power generation, as well as firming technologies like storage and gas”. </p>
<p>As interventionist as this sounds, it has some clear advantages over more indirect support mechanisms. First, it brings the costs of new projects down further by making cheap finance available – a tried and tested method in state-based renewables schemes. Second, it allows for a more targeted approach, supporting renewable energy generation where it makes most sense given demand and transmission lines, and prioritising storage where and when it is needed. Third, it channels government support only to new installations, rather than giving free money to wind farms and solar plants that are already in operation.</p>
<h2>Managing coal exit</h2>
<p>Where renewables rise, coal will fall. Labor’s approach to this issue centres on the affected workers and communities. A “just transition authority” would be created as a statutory authority, to administer redundancies, worker training, and economic diversification. </p>
<p>This is a good approach if it can work effectively and efficiently. But it may not be enough to manage the large and potentially rapid shifts in Australia’s power sector.</p>
<p>Contract prices for new wind farms and solar plants now are <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/origin-says-solar-cheaper-than-coal-moving-on-from-base-load-70999/">similar to or lower than the operating costs of many existing coal plants</a>. The economics of existing coal plants are deteriorating, and many of Australia’s ageing coal power plants may shut down sooner than anticipated. </p>
<p>All that Labor’s policy says on the issue is that all large power plants would be required to provide three years’ notice of closure, as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-finally-a-sensible-and-solid-footing-for-the-electricity-sector-79118">Finkel Review recommended</a>. But in practice this is unlikely to work. </p>
<p>Without any guiding framework, coal power plants could close very suddenly. If a major piece of equipment fails and repair is uneconomic, then the plant is out, and operators may find it opportune to run the plant right until that point. It’s like driving an old car – it runs sort of OK until the gearbox goes, and it’s off to the wreckers right then. It is unclear how a three-year rule could be enforced. </p>
<p>This is effectively what happened with the Hazelwood plant in Victoria. That closure caused a temporary rise in wholesale power prices, as new supply capacity gradually fills the gap.</p>
<p>One way to deal with this would be to draw up and implement some form of specific exit timetable for coal power plants. This would give notice to local communities, provide time to prepare investment in alternative economic activities, and allow replacement generation capacity to be brought online. Such a timetable would need a mechanism to implement it, probably a system of carrots and sticks. </p>
<h2>Batteries, energy efficiency and the CEFC</h2>
<p>Most public attention was given to a relatively small part of Labor’s energy policy platform: the promise to <a href="https://theconversation.com/households-to-get-2000-subsidy-for-batteries-under-shorten-energy-policy-107417">subsidise home batteries</a>. Batteries can help reduce peak demand, and cut electricity bills for those who also have solar panels. But it is not clear whether home batteries are good value for money in the system overall. And the program would tend to benefit mostly upper middle-income earners.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-battery-plan-good-policy-or-just-good-politics-107434">Labor's battery plan – good policy, or just good politics?</a>
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<p>Labor’s platform also foreshadows a renewed emphasis on energy efficiency, which is economically sensible.</p>
<p>Finally, Labor promises to double the Clean Energy Finance Corporation’s endowment with another A$10 billion, to be used for revolving loans. The CEFC is already the world’s biggest “green bank”, co-financing projects that cut emissions and deliver financial returns. Another A$5 billion is promised as a fund for upgrading transmission and distribution infrastructure. These are big numbers, and justifiably so - building our future energy system will need massive investments, and some of these will be best made by government. </p>
<h2>Big plans for electricity, but what about the rest?</h2>
<p>Overall, Labor’s plan is a solid blueprint to support the electricity transition, with strong ambition made possible by the tremendous technological developments of recent years. </p>
<p>But really it is only the start. Electricity accounts for one-third of national greenhouse emissions. Emissions from the power sector will continue to fall, but emissions from other sectors have been rising. That poses a huge challenge for the economy-wide emissions reductions that are needed not only to achieve the 2030 emissions targets, but the much deeper reductions needed in coming decades.</p>
<p>A national low-carbon strategy will need to look at how to get industry to shift to zero-emission electricity, how to convert road transport to electricity or hydrogen, and how to tackle the difficult question of agricultural emissions. More pre-election announcements are to come. It will be interesting to see how far Labor will be willing to go in the direction of putting a price on carbon, which remains the economically sensible but most politically charged policy option. </p>
<p>As difficult as electricity policy may seem based on the tumultuous politics that have surrounded it, more seismic shifts are waiting in the wings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107565/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads research projects on energy and climate policy. There are no conflicts of interest regarding this article arising from any funding received or any of the author's affiliations. </span></em></p>The Labor Party’s newly announced energy policy could finally set Australia’s electricity sector on the path to a renewables-driven future. But policies are still needed to cut emissions elsewhere.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1057402018-10-31T18:54:42Z2018-10-31T18:54:42ZState governments can transform Australia’s energy policy from major fail to reliable success<p><em>This week we’re exploring the state of nine different policy areas across Australia’s states, as detailed in Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/?post_type=report&p=6974&preview=true">State Orange Book 2018</a>. Read the other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2018-61464">here</a></em>.</p>
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<p>Energy policy in Australia is a major failure. The federal government has been unable to forge an effective policy to ensure affordable, reliable and low-emissions electricity. It’s time for the states to step up. </p>
<p>Internationally, responsibility for climate change policies rests with national governments. The federal government says it remains committed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">Australia’s target</a> under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a>, but it has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-votes-down-coag-push-to-keep-climate-on-energy-policy-agenda-16324/">abandoned</a> the emissions-reduction obligation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee (NEG)</a>. This leaves Australia’s electricity sector, which is responsible for <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/63391569-7ffa-4395-b245-e53893158566/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2018.pdf">34% of our overall emissions</a>, with no credible policy to reduce those emissions. </p>
<p>The states should fill this policy vacuum if it persists. They should work together on a nationwide emissions reduction scheme through state-based legislation, independent of the federal government. A Commonwealth-led national policy would be best, but a state-based policy is far better than none.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-too-hard-basket-a-short-history-of-australias-aborted-climate-policies-101812">The too hard basket: a short history of Australia's aborted climate policies</a>
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<p>In October 2018 the <a href="http://coagenergycouncil.gov.au/publications/20th-energy-council-ministerial-meeting-communiqu%C3%A9">COAG Energy Council agreed</a> to continue work on the reliability element of the NEG. The states and territories should maintain this support and implement this policy with the Commonwealth government, and so support the reliability of the <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM">National Electricity Market</a> during a challenging transition.</p>
<p>The Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/?post_type=report&p=6974&preview=true">State Orange Book 2018</a> shows that there is also much the states can do to reduce energy prices. Consumers are understandably upset – household retail prices have increased by more than half in the past decade, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (see page 7 <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%E2%80%94Final%20Report%20June%202018_0.pdf">here</a>). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243156/original/file-20181031-76413-1hx1njx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">How your state measures up on energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute State Orange Book 2018</span></span>
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<p>The federal government is certainly focused on price – Prime Minister Scott Morrison has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-26/scott-morrison-announces-new-cabinet-after-julie-bishop-quits/10166300">referred</a> to Energy Minister Angus Taylor as the “minister for getting electricity prices down” – but many important pricing policies depend on state action. </p>
<p>Retail pricing is the obvious example. Poorly regulated retail electricity markets have <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/price-shock/">not delivered for consumers</a>. Retail margins are higher than would be expected in a truly competitive market. Many consumers find the market so <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-need-a-phd-to-read-your-power-bill-buying-wisely-is-all-but-impossible-98617">complicated</a> they give up trying to understand it. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">A high price for policy failure: the ten-year story of spiralling electricity bills</a>
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<p>State governments should work alongside the federal government to help consumers navigate the retail “confusopoly”. Governments should require retailers to help consumers compare offers and get the best deal. They should also stop retailers using excessive pay-on-time discounts (which tend to confuse rather than help consumers and can trap lower-income households), and ensure vulnerable customers do not pay high prices. </p>
<p>However, governments should <a href="https://theconversation.com/capping-electricity-prices-a-quick-fix-with-hidden-risks-101981">resist the temptation</a> to use price caps as a quick fix. If set too low, price caps could reduce competition and drive longer-term price increases. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/capping-electricity-prices-a-quick-fix-with-hidden-risks-101981">Capping electricity prices: a quick fix with hidden risks</a>
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<p>Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which have not yet adopted retail competition, should move in that direction – while learning from the mistakes of others.</p>
<p>Network costs make up the biggest share of the electricity bill for most households (see page 8 <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%E2%80%94Final%20Report%20June%202018_0.pdf">here</a>) and some small businesses. This is particularly an issue in New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania, where network values <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/down-to-the-wire/">increased substantially under public ownership</a> and those costs were passed on to consumers. </p>
<p>These states should write down the value of their overvalued networks or provide rebates to consumers, so the price of the networks is more closely aligned to the value they provide to consumers. Given the poor performance of publicly owned networks, any network businesses still in government hands should be privatised. </p>
<p>Responsibility for setting network reliability requirements should be transferred to the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/">Australian Energy Regulator</a> to prevent risk-averse state governments from imposing <a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-blackout-scare-stories-remember-that-a-grid-without-power-cuts-is-impossible-and-expensive-102115">excessive reliability standards</a>, which would drive up network costs again. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amid-blackout-scare-stories-remember-that-a-grid-without-power-cuts-is-impossible-and-expensive-102115">Amid blackout scare stories, remember that a grid without power cuts is impossible... and expensive</a>
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<p>Until recently, it seemed state governments had learned the lessons from the bad old days of <a href="https://theconversation.com/policy-overload-why-the-accc-says-household-solar-subsidies-should-be-abolished-99937">excessively generous subsidies</a> for rooftop solar. That was until August 2018, when the Victorian government <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/cutting-power-bills-with-solar-panels-for-650000-homes/">committed more than A$1 billion</a> to pay half the cost of solar panels for eligible households and provide an interest-free loan for the remainder. Most of these systems would pay for themselves without subsidy. The Victorian government should abandon this waste of taxpayers’ money. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/policy-overload-why-the-accc-says-household-solar-subsidies-should-be-abolished-99937">Policy overload: why the ACCC says household solar subsidies should be abolished</a>
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<p>Finally, Australia’s gas market is adding to the price pain of homes and businesses. As <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/east-coast-gas-market-conditions-have-eased-but-more-gas-required-to-lower-prices">international prices rise</a>, there is no easy way to avoid some painful decisions. But some state policies are making matters worse. </p>
<p>The Victorian and Tasmanian governments’ moratoria on gas exploration and development constrain supply and drive up prices. The moratoria should be lifted. Instead, these states should give case-by-case approval to gas development projects, with safeguards against specific risks. </p>
<p>Australia needs reliable, affordable electricity to underpin our 21st-century economic prosperity. That must be protected while we also decarbonise the energy sector.</p>
<p>Energy market reform was at the forefront of national competition policy in the mid to late 1990s. But reform has since slowed, and the states are partly responsible. The states can rekindle the fire by pursuing a clear, nationally consistent action plan for affordable, reliable and low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>Australia’s households and businesses – and the environment – are relying on the states to step up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105740/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The State Orange Book 2018, from which this article draws, was supported by a grant from the Susan McKinnon Foundation. The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>The federal government is primarily to blame for the mess that is Australia’s energy policy. It’s time for the states to step up, to reduce both prices and emissions.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteGuy Dundas, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1047742018-10-11T19:06:24Z2018-10-11T19:06:24ZThe science is clear: we have to start creating our low-carbon future today<p>This week’s release of the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">special report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put scientific evidence on the front page of the world’s newspapers.</p>
<p>As Australia’s Chief Scientist, I hope it will be recognised as a tremendous validation of the work that scientists do.</p>
<p>The people of the world, speaking through their governments, requested this report to quantify the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-un-report-outlines-urgent-transformational-change-needed-to-hold-global-warming-to-1-5-c-103237">impacts of warming by 1.5°C</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-two-decades-to-avoid-the-most-damaging-impacts-of-climate-change-104409">what steps might be taken to limit it</a>. They asked for the clearest possible picture of the consequences and feasible solutions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uns-1-5-c-special-climate-report-at-a-glance-104547">The UN's 1.5°C special climate report at a glance</a>
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<p>It is not my intention in this article to offer a detailed commentary on the IPCC’s findings. I commend the many scientists with expertise in climate systems who have helped Australians to understand the messages of this report.</p>
<p>My purpose is to urge all decision-makers – in government, industry and the community – to listen to the science.</p>
<h2>Focus on the goal</h2>
<p>It would be possible for the public to take from this week’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">headlines</a> an overwhelming sense of despair.</p>
<p>The message I take is that we do not have time for fatalism.</p>
<p>We have to look squarely at the goal of a zero-emissions planet, then work out how to get there while maximising our economic growth. It requires an orderly transition, and that transition will have to be managed over several decades.</p>
<p>That is why my <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-markets/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market">review of the National Electricity Market</a> called for a whole-of-economy emissions reduction strategy for 2050, to be in place by the end of 2020.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-at-a-glance-79177">The Finkel Review at a glance</a>
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<p>We have to be upfront with the community about the magnitude of the task. In a word, it is huge.</p>
<p>Many of the technologies in the IPCC’s most optimistic scenarios are at an early stage, or conceptual. Two that stand out in that category are:</p>
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<li><p><strong>carbon dioxide removal (CDR)</strong>: large-scale technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)</strong>: technology to capture and store carbon dioxide from electricity generation. </p></li>
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<p>It will take a decade or more for these technologies to be developed to the point at which they have proven impact, then more decades to be widely deployed.</p>
<p>The IPCC’s pathways for rapid emissions reduction also include a substantial role for behavioural change. Behavioural change is with us always, but it is incremental. </p>
<p>Driving change of this magnitude, across all societies, in fundamental matters like the homes we build and the foods we eat, will only succeed if we give it time – and avoid the inevitable backlash from pushing too fast.</p>
<p>The IPCC has made it clear that the level of emissions reduction we can achieve in the next decade will be crucial. So we cannot afford to wait.</p>
<h2>Many options</h2>
<p>No option should be ruled off the table without rigorous consideration.</p>
<p>In that context, the Finkel Review pointed to a crucial role for natural gas, particularly in the next vital decade, as we scale up renewable energy.</p>
<p>The IPCC has made the same point, not just for Australia but for the world.</p>
<p>The question should not be “renewables or coal”. The focus should be on atmospheric greenhouse emissions. This is the outcome that matters.</p>
<p>Denying ourselves options makes it harder, not easier, to get to the goal.</p>
<p>There also has to be serious consideration of other options modelled by the IPCC, including biofuels, catchment hydroelectricity, and nuclear power.</p>
<p>My own focus in recent months has been on the potential for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hydrogen-power-can-help-us-cut-emissions-boost-exports-and-even-drive-further-between-refills-101967">clean hydrogen</a>, the newest entrant to the world’s energy markets.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hydrogen-power-can-help-us-cut-emissions-boost-exports-and-even-drive-further-between-refills-101967">How hydrogen power can help us cut emissions, boost exports, and even drive further between refills</a>
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<p>In future, I expect hydrogen to be used as an alternative to fossil fuels to power long-distance travel for cars, trucks, trains and ships; for heating buildings; for electricity storage; and, in some countries, for electricity generation.</p>
<p>We have in Australia the abundant resources required to produce clean hydrogen for the global market at a competitive price, on either of the two viable pathways: splitting water using solar and wind electricity, or deriving hydrogen from natural gas and coal in combination with carbon capture and sequestration.</p>
<p>Building an export hydrogen industry will be a major undertaking. But it will also bring jobs and infrastructure development, largely in regional communities, for decades.</p>
<p>So the scale of the task is all the more reason to press on today – at the same time as we press on with mining lithium for batteries, clearing the path for electric vehicles, planning more carbon-efficient cities, and so much more.</p>
<p>There are no easy answers. I hope, through this and other reports, there are newly determined people ready to contribute to the global good.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104774/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest UN climate report makes it clear that the task of limiting climate change is urgent and huge. We must start to transform our economy today, but it will bring rewards as well as challenges.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.