tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/federal-budget-2018-37859/articlesFederal Budget 2018 – The Conversation2018-06-04T04:57:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/973212018-06-04T04:57:21Z2018-06-04T04:57:21ZRemember Turnbull’s 2015 ‘ideas boom’? We’re still only part way there<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221119/original/file-20180531-69517-i1g2ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Freelancing and hot-desking are already common in work places – and will continue to rise. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2015, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="https://www.innovation.gov.au/page/national-innovation-and-science-agenda-report">welcomed us to the “ideas boom”</a>, launching a National Innovation and Science Agenda to </p>
<blockquote>
<p>drive smart ideas that create business growth, local jobs and global success. </p>
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<p>In January 2018 the specially-created independent statutory board Innovation and Science Australia (<a href="https://industry.gov.au/Innovation-and-Science-Australia/about-us/Pages/default.aspx">ISA</a>) released its report <a href="https://industry.gov.au/innovation/InnovationPolicy/Pages/Government-Response-to-2030.aspx">Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation</a>. It’s a document that <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-clear-target-in-australias-2030-national-innovation-report-90938">has been described</a> not as a roadmap for action, but “more of a sketch with detours, dead ends, and red lights which should be green.”</p>
<p>The federal government’s <a href="https://industry.gov.au/innovation/InnovationPolicy/Documents/Government-Response-ISA-2030-Plan.pdf">May 2018 response</a> to this report adds further disappointment. The response fails to seize the opportunity to deliver a properly funded and connected education, research and innovation system.</p>
<p>Australia is left with a series of well-meaning but disparate programs that only get us part way to ensuing that Australia thrives in the global innovation race.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-clear-target-in-australias-2030-national-innovation-report-90938">No clear target in Australia's 2030 national innovation report</a>
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<h2>Action is required</h2>
<p>Today, we sit at the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/">dawn of the fourth industrial revolution</a> where virtual, physical and biological worlds are merging. <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/cognitive-technologies.html">Sophisticated cognitive and automation technologies</a> will transform our world in ways difficult to imagine. These technologies are increasingly able to perform human tasks better, faster, and more cheaply. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221481/original/file-20180604-177137-1qps7ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A snapshot of Australia’s STEM workforce <strong>CLICK ON IMAGE TO ZOOM</strong></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2016/03/report-australias-stem-workforce/">Office of the Chief Scientist</a></span>
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<p>But it is the emergence of vast, <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=3WhMtAEACAAJ">expanding digital platforms</a> and the ecosystems they support that will have a more profound impact on the future of work. Their <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=r-U2DwAAQBAJ">ever-increasing complexity and accelerating change</a> means constant disruption is the new business as usual. </p>
<p>If we are to respond to the changing nature of future work, we need to build a world-beating national innovation ecosystem, especially by equipping Australians with skills and experience relevant to 2030. As we transition into the digital economy, that means technical, digital and STEM skills are vital. (STEM refers to science, technology, engineering and maths.) </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/4250.0.55.005%7E2010%E2%80%9311%7EMedia%20Release%7EQualifications%20paying%20off%20in%20science,%20technology,%20engineering%20and%20maths%20(Media%20Release)%7E1">Growth in STEM jobs</a> is 1.5 times that of non-STEM since 2005, yet we continue to produce non-STEM graduates at <a href="http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/Infographic.pdf">higher rates than those in STEM</a>. The performance of our kids at school – particularly in maths and science – <a href="https://theconversation.com/pisa-results-dont-look-good-but-before-we-panic-lets-look-at-what-we-can-learn-from-the-latest-test-69470">has declined against international benchmarks</a>. </p>
<p>Clearly, strategic intervention is needed: this is where ISA should come in. </p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pisa-results-dont-look-good-but-before-we-panic-lets-look-at-what-we-can-learn-from-the-latest-test-69470">PISA results don’t look good, but before we panic let’s look at what we can learn from the latest test</a>
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<h2>Nothing new on education</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://industry.gov.au/innovation/InnovationPolicy/Pages/Government-Response-to-2030.aspx">ISA report</a> recommendations on education cover: </p>
<ul>
<li>better training for teachers, particularly STEM teachers </li>
<li>preparing students for STEM degrees and jobs </li>
<li>improving student achievement in literacy and numeracy </li>
<li>interventions to reduce educational inequality</li>
<li>improving our vocational education and training (VET) system.</li>
</ul>
<p>Yet none of these education recommendations were directly supported by the government: only “in principle” or “noted” support was offered in the <a href="https://industry.gov.au/innovation/InnovationPolicy/Documents/Government-Response-ISA-2030-Plan.pdf">response document</a>. </p>
<p>While school education in Australia is the constitutional responsibility of the states and territories, the Australian government never shies away from using the funding carrot to leverage school policy outcomes for the betterment of the country.</p>
<p>For instance, full marks go to the federal government supporting STEM education through the Education Council’s <a href="http://www.educationcouncil.edu.au/site/DefaultSite/filesystem/documents/National%20STEM%20School%20Education%20Strategy.pdf">National STEM School Education Strategy 2016-2026</a>, and for funding several excellent STEM education projects and initiatives. So why not fund increased numbers and quality of STEM teachers?</p>
<p>Likewise, the urgent need to support the Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector to help it drive innovation, automation and new technologies, and provide businesses with requisite skills training is absent. The <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/skilling-australians-fund">Skilling Australians Fund</a> – the government’s main VET policy instrument and a welcome apprenticeship initiative – does little to transition the existing workforce through VET.</p>
<h2>Funding for R&D is unclear</h2>
<p>Turning to research and development (R&D), the <a href="https://industry.gov.au/innovation/InnovationPolicy/Documents/Government-Response-ISA-2030-Plan.pdf">government supports</a> the <a href="https://industry.gov.au/Innovation-and-Science-Australia/Australia-2030/Pages/default.aspx">ISA recommendation</a> to enhance AI and machine learning capabilities – absolutely essential in the digital economy. However, there was no additional funding in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">2018 federal budget</a> beyond existing digital technologies program.</p>
<p>At face value, <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">the raft of funding commitments</a> in the budget for R&D looks promising. But are the funds in addition to existing commitments, or a re-labelling of existing funds?</p>
<p>A persistent <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1759-3441.12001">criticism from industry of government support</a> is the continual chopping and changing of policies and programs, both in name and content. </p>
<p>ISA recommended extending export support programs, which is sensible <a href="http://www.swinburne.edu.au/media/swinburneeduau/research/research-centres/cti/reports/Impact-of-the-Victorian-Trade-Missions-Program-2010-12-on-Export-Revenue-2017.pdf">given the solid evidence that they work</a>. However, in its response the government merely said they are supported in principle, with no further funds forthcoming. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-was-missing-in-australias-1-9-billion-infrastructure-announcement-96723">What was missing in Australia's $1.9 billion infrastructure announcement</a>
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<h2>What about the future of work?</h2>
<p>Agile approaches, <a href="https://exponentialorgs.com/">exponential organisations</a>, freelance economy, and <a href="https://www.engineering.com/AdvancedManufacturing/ArticleID/16521/What-Is-Industry-40-Anyway.aspx">Industry 4.0</a> are rewriting the rules of how economic value is created. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://industry.gov.au/Innovation-and-Science-Australia/Australia-2030/Pages/default.aspx">ISA report</a> aims to provide comfort about how to create employment opportunities towards 2030, but it speaks more to the past than to the future. Knowledge work – a main focus of the report – will increasingly be performed <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where-machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet">less by people and more by machines</a>, creating vast workforce transformation challenges for industry.</p>
<p>The closer we get to 2030, the less the ISA view of the future will be true. Emerging evidence already contraindicates this view. </p>
<p>For work done by people, data from the United States and Australia already show enormous growth of <a href="https://www.upwork.com/press/2017/10/17/freelancing-in-america-2017/">freelancers</a>, including operating from <a href="http://sbi.sydney.edu.au/wp-content/themes/sbi/Coworking-Spaces-Australia-2017.pdf">co-working spaces</a>. Modelling suggests this trend will continue.</p>
<p>In parallel, business are becoming more agile. ANZ <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-bank-restructure-to-create-150-startups-20170906-gybxr8.html">is completely restructuring itself to look more like 150 start-ups</a>, and downsizing in the process. NAB <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-reveals-6000-jobs-to-go-as-it-announces-66b-profit-20171102-gzd3tc.html">is sacking 6,000 staff</a> – including many knowledge workers – and replacing them with 2,000 technology specialists and digital workers. All large companies are expected to follow.</p>
<h2>Dissociating ‘work’ from ‘jobs’</h2>
<p>In the emerging freelance economy, work is increasingly being dissociated from jobs on digital platforms like <a href="http://www.upwork.com">Upwork</a>. And as more companies go agile, they will have fewer employees but have a larger workforce, leveraging the freelance economy through these platforms.</p>
<p>The upshot? People will increasingly need to create their own work opportunities rather than expect to get a traditional job.</p>
<p>Developing digital skills is essential, and the ISA report rightly focuses on them. But in the highly disruptive and dynamic environment of digital platforms, the core worker skill set will be competent risk taking. Diversity of experience combined with continuous learning are essential ingredients. </p>
<p>Alongside investments in teaching, we should be investing in opportunities where students – from secondary to tertiary education – can “learn-by-doing” in emerging futures of work.</p>
<p>It is for others to discuss the merits of whether these disruptive changes to the economy and employment should be allowed happen or not. But New York Times columnist Tom Friedman sums up <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/deloitte-review/issue-21/tom-friedman-interview-jobs-learning-future-of-work.html">the certainty of the approaching tech disruption perfectly</a>:</p>
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<p>Whatever can be done, will be done. The only question is, “Will it be done by you or to you?” but it will be done.</p>
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<p>The inexorable and exponential rise of sophisticated technologies in the digital economy – the Australian economy – will impact all work and change all jobs. We need to be investing in this future for our children. </p>
<p>And we need the government to support and fund a well-integrated innovation ecosystem to incorporates education, research, industry and government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beth Webster receives funding from the ARC and the Victorian Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Maddison is a member of the ARC College of Experts.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are many disappointments in the government’s response to Innovation and Science Australia’s report ‘Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation’.Sean Gallagher, Director, Centre for the New Workforce, Swinburne University of TechnologyBeth Webster, Director, Centre for Transformative Innovation, Swinburne University of TechnologySarah Maddison, Pro-Vice Chancellor (Academic Innovation & Change), Professor of Astrophysics, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975392018-06-01T04:09:49Z2018-06-01T04:09:49ZThe Coalition’s income tax cuts will help the rich more, but in a decade everyone pays more anyway<p>Does the Coalition’s tax plan favour high earners over those with lower incomes? </p>
<p>Depending whom you listen to, the tax cuts, unveiled in last month’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">federal budget</a>, lead to either a flatter, more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/may/10/the-flat-tax-is-really-about-cutting-services-not-taxes">regressive tax system</a> under which low-income earners will be even worse off relative to high earners, or the opposite, with a <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/coalition-tax-cuts-arent-evil--just-maths-says-richardson-20180518-h1091x">progressive outcome</a>. It can’t be both.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/most-of-the-benefits-from-the-budget-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-get-richer-96348">Most of the benefits from the budget tax cuts will help the rich get richer</a>
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<p>While there are tax cuts proposed from July this year, the most substantial cuts are planned for 2022-23 and then 2024-25. As this is several years away, it becomes tricky to analyse their likely impact. </p>
<p>The main issue is wage inflation, which in turn leads to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/taxation-by-stealth-bracket-creep-and-the-budget-41674">bracket creep</a>”. We tend to think about the change in terms of what it means for today’s incomes, but that’s not realistic. An annual income today of A$80,000 will be around A$110,000 by 2027-28 if the government’s wage projections prove to be accurate.</p>
<p>Using our model of the Australian tax and welfare system, <a href="http://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/policymod">PolicyMod</a>, we projected the incomes of each person in the 20,000 families in the underlying model survey data (the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/6523.0%7E2015-16%7EMain%20Features%7EIntroduction%7E2">Survey of Income and Housing 2015-16</a>). </p>
<p>We did this for each year until 2028-29, using the federal budget’s wage assumptions. We then used this to forecast the outcome of the proposed tax cuts, and compared it with the effects of maintaining current tax rates. </p>
<p>Our results are remarkably similar to the forecasts of Treasurer Scott Morrison. He has projected a total tax cut between 2018-19 and 2028-29 of A$143 billion, whereas our model puts this figure at A$140 billion.</p>
<h2>Whose tax is being cut?</h2>
<p>Who will actually receive these tax cuts, and will they really benefit? Our modelling shows around 50% of the adult population pays income tax in a given year. So clearly the benefit goes to the top half of the taxable income distribution.</p>
<p>What’s more, if the tax cuts are only returning bracket creep for many taxpayers, then they are not really tax “benefits”, because they will not make those people better off in real terms.</p>
<p>This is clearly shown in the chart below, where the bottom 50% of taxable income individuals will have a negligible share of tax savings. Around 33% of total savings between 2018-19 and 2028-29 go to people in the top 5% of incomes. In 2028-29 it is 38%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221310/original/file-20180601-69508-2skbrf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>If this were the end of the story, we might conclude that the tax cuts are grossly unfair. But it’s not quite as simple as that, because people with the highest taxable incomes are not necessarily the “wealthiest” people.</p>
<p>A more reasonable test considers whether the income tax cuts are real or “imagined”. If they are real, average tax rates should be lower. The fairness of the tax cuts can then be judged by the share of the tax burden across the income distribution. </p>
<p>If high earners are paying a larger share of tax than low and middle earners, then we have a more progressive tax system. A less progressive system, in contrast, is a flatter system - although not necessarily a totally flat income tax rate. </p>
<p>But determining whether the proposals are progressive or regressive still doesn’t fully answer the question of whether they are “fair”.</p>
<h2>Fair tax hikes for all?</h2>
<p>The chart below shows that tax rates will increase for all income groups, although they will rise more slowly if the Coalition’s tax plan is delivered. Crucially, higher earners will feel this difference most keenly. By 2027-28, the top 5% of earners average tax rate will be 2.1 percentage points lower than under the current regime, whereas for the bottom 50% the difference is just 0.2%. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221311/original/file-20180601-69514-14t4gx3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Another way of looking at progressivity is to consider the share of tax paid. The chart below shows that under the current policy trajectory, higher-income groups pay a lower share of tax in future years compared with 2017-18. This occurs naturally due to bracket creep, which tends to impact low- and middle-income people more than those with very high incomes.</p>
<p>In the current financial year the top 10% of earners pay 58% of personal income tax. By 2027-28 this is projected to fall to 54.8% if the tax regime remains unchanged. Under the Coalition’s tax plan it is only marginally lower still, at 54.3%.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221312/original/file-20180601-69487-sohomg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Anyway, it is purely hypothetical to extrapolate the current tax regime as far ahead as 2027-28. It is highly likely that future governments will change the tax code for a range of reasons, including overcoming bracket creep. </p>
<p>Note also that some “low-income” people may live in high-income households. However, our <a href="http://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/modelling-2018-19-federal-budget-personal-income-tax-measures">earlier analysis</a> looking at households rather than individual earners also suggests that the Coalition’s tax proposal is marginally less progressive than the current system.</p>
<p>The chart below shows that the Coalition’s tax policy will have only a limited impact on the tax shares at different income levels by 2027-28. Perhaps a more relevant comparison is with the current tax shares for 2017-18, where a clearer pattern emerges of low- and middle-income earners paying a larger share of taxation.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221313/original/file-20180601-69517-auzwuj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The upshot is that the Coalition’s policy only partly overcomes bracket creep, with taxes still set to increase overall in the long term. The proposed policy does slightly more to overcome bracket creep for higher-income individuals. But it also locks in a higher tax share for those on low and middle incomes, and a lower share of the tax burden for higher earners. </p>
<p>On that basis, the proposals will lead to a slightly less progressive income tax regime than the one we currently have. But it will still be a long way short of a flat tax, and pretty much everyone looks set to be paying more income tax a decade from now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Gray receives funding from many Commonwealth, state and territory Australian government departments to undertake independent economic and social policy research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Phillips does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The income tax cuts in the 2018 federal budget are likely to be modestly regressive, giving high earners a lower share of the overall tax burden. But by 2028 income tax will be higher across the board.Ben Phillips, Associate Professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityMatthew Gray, Director, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/974522018-05-30T06:11:55Z2018-05-30T06:11:55ZPolitics podcast: Michael McCormack on Barnaby’s future, latte sippers and other matters<p>With yet another round of the Barnaby Joyce affair distracting the government, the next question will be whether the beleaguered MP runs again in his New England seat at the election.</p>
<p>In this interview with The Conversation, Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack pointedly avoids saying Joyce should do so.</p>
<p>“That’ll be a matter for him and that’ll be a matter for the National party in New England. That’ll be a matter for a branch to nominate him and then that’ll be a matter for the branch members in New England as to whether or not they decide if he nominates or if anybody else nominates,” McCormack says.</p>
<p>“Then it becomes a preselection process as to who they think would best represent them going forward”.</p>
<p>McCormack also speaks about the reception for the government’s tax plans in regional Australia, lashes out at those city-dwellers “sipping lattes” who’d close down live animal exports, and declares “trust me, I am no pushover for anybody”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97452/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this interview Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack pointedly avoids saying Joyce should run again in his New England seat at the election.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965312018-05-20T19:50:18Z2018-05-20T19:50:18ZHow Indigenous and disabled women lost out in the 2018 budget<p>Despite the government spruiking its tax relief for Australians in this year’s budget, many women will not benefit from the tax plan. There is also a lack of support for the most vulnerable in our society, including Indigenous women, women with a disability and women affected by family violence.</p>
<p>I am a member of the National Foundation of Australian Women Social Policy Committee, and this is the fifth year <a href="https://www.nfaw.org/page/a-gender-lens-budget">we’ve examined the effect of the federal budget</a> on women through a gender lens. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/bp2/index.html">budget papers</a> state that the tax offset, available from 1 July 2018, will benefit low and middle income earners. On the face of it, this should benefit women, as <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2015-16/resource/22e0189c-97e2-4c95-b926-aa0e413f04ac">5.8 million women</a>, or 90% of women who lodged income tax returns in the 2015-16 financial year (which is the most recently available data), earned less than $90,000. </p>
<p>However, the structure of the tax offset only reduces tax paid, if a person pays tax in the first place. In the 2015-16 year, <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/taxation-statistics-2015-16/resource/22e0189c-97e2-4c95-b926-aa0e413f04ac">1.9 million, or 32% of women who lodged a tax return, were not taxable</a>, and would not benefit from the offset. </p>
<p>The structure of the offset also acts as a disincentive to part-time workers increasing their hours of work. The offset reduces the average tax rate for taxpayers eligible for the offset, which should encourage participation in the workforce.</p>
<p>However, when considering whether to increase participation, the <a href="https://taxpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/files/uploads/taxstudies_crawford_anu_edu_au/2016-08/ingles_plunkett_policy_brief_1_2016_last.pdf">effective marginal tax rate</a> is more relevant, as that affects the amount that the worker takes home from the extra hours worked.</p>
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<p>Taxpayers with a taxable income lower than A$21,595 will see a reduction in their effective marginal tax rate. But they will not receive the full benefit, as the tax payable is less than the offset.</p>
<p>The fairest way to ensure that low income earners - who may not be taxpayers – receive the full value of the offset is to pay it by way of a direct government payment, which gives the full value to the recipient. </p>
<p>Although the proposals to reduce fees on superannuation will increase superannuation benefits, the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/Economic_security_for_women_in_retirement/Report/b01">Senate Economics Committee</a> to remove the exemption from the superannuation guarantee for wages less than A$450 per month and pay superannuation guarantee entitlements on paid parental leave have not been addressed.</p>
<h2>The most vulnerable women lose out</h2>
<p>The budget also has consequences for some of the most disadvantaged groups in the community. </p>
<p>Additional funding was not set aside for the <a href="https://plan4womenssafety.dss.gov.au/the-national-plan/third-action-plan/">National Plan to Reduce Violence</a> against women and their children. Eight years after the plan was launched and midway through the government’s <a href="https://plan4womenssafety.dss.gov.au/the-national-plan/third-action-plan/">Third Action Plan</a>, there is no improvement in any of the four indicators of change. These are reduced prevalence of violence and sexual assault; increased proportion of women who feel safe in their communities; reduced deaths related to domestic violence and sexual assault, and a reduced proportion of children exposed to their mother or carer’s experience of domestic violence. Nor is there any other sign of a substantial – let alone sustained – reduction in violence against women. </p>
<p>As the leader of the plan, the federal government should increase its funding in line with that of the larger states. For example, Victoria has committed <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-ideas-to-stop-family-violence-before-it-starts/">A$1.9 billion over three years</a> toward family violence prevention, response and recovery in the 2017-18 budget, with a further A$42.5 million announced for 2018-19. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-leads-the-way-on-family-violence-but-canberra-needs-to-lift-its-game-74036">Victoria leads the way on family violence, but Canberra needs to lift its game</a>
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<p>Indigenous women also lose out with this budget. At a time when the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/radical-rethink-of-closing-the-gap-required-despite-some-progress-86203">Closing the Gap efforts are seen to be faltering</a>, with <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/our-work/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-social-justice/publications/close-gap-10-year-review">only one of seven key targets on track to be met after a decade</a>, there is little in this budget to change that. </p>
<p>Notably, the proposal to allow the federal government to withhold welfare payments to pay fines imposed under state and territory laws has been described by the <a href="https://nationalcongress.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/National-Congress-Budget-Response-2018-8th-May-2018.pdf">National Congress of First Peoples</a> as:</p>
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<p>…a recipe for ensuring that the poorest and most vulnerable members of our society will remain so, with unpaid fines likely leading to increased rates of incarceration rather than pathways to prosperity.</p>
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<p>Women living with a disability are also poorly served in this budget. Some women with disabilities who are <a href="https://theconversation.com/understanding-the-ndis-how-does-the-scheme-work-and-am-i-eligible-for-funding-58726">not eligible for the National Disability Insurance Scheme</a> are seeing increasing erosion of their benefits, because they are classified as “insufficiently disabled” by their impairment and/or they are older than 65. For example, <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/health-sciences/documents/mind-the-gap.pdf">people with severe mental health issues</a> are having difficulty accessing the scheme. </p>
<p>In another measure, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-aboriginal-women-with-disabilities-are-set-on-a-path-into-the-criminal-justice-system-48167">Indigenous women receiving the disability support pension</a> will see the suspension period for it while incarcerated reduced to 13 weeks from the current two years. This means on release from prison, disability support pension recipients will have to reapply for the benefit, creating hardship in the crucial period of adjustment following release. </p>
<p>There is an underlying need for housing that is common to all of these vulnerable groups, but there is nothing in the budget to address housing. Women fleeing domestic violence need crisis accommodation; women with disabilities need <a href="https://theconversation.com/ndis-needs-the-market-to-help-make-up-at-least-60-shortfall-in-specialist-disability-housing-93479">housing that is appropriate to their needs</a>; and <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/indigenous/hpf-2017/tier2/202.html">18% of Indigenous households are living in houses of an unacceptable standard</a>. There is no new money for any of these groups.</p>
<p>At a time when the cost of rental accommodation makes most homes <a href="http://www.anglicare.asn.au/our-work/research-reports/the-rental-affordability-snapshot">unaffordable to people on benefits</a>, there is no proposed increase in the level of Commonwealth Rent Assistance.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/homelessness-australias-shameful-story-of-policy-complacency-and-failure-continues-95376">Homelessness: Australia's shameful story of policy complacency and failure continues</a>
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<p>The Minister for Women has <a href="https://ministers.pmc.gov.au/odwyer/2018/womens-budget-2018-19-snapshot">announced</a> there will be a statement later in 2018 regarding initiatives for women. There’s also a substantial amount, A$1.4 billion over the next four years, that has been set aside in the budget papers for spending on initiatives that have not yet been announced.</p>
<p>This statement should allocate funding to improve the wellbeing of women. Vulnerable women need access to appropriate housing, and Commonwealth Rent Assistance needs to be increased for those in the private rental market. Funding for the National Plan to Reduce Violence and Closing the Gap need to be increased. </p>
<p>The economic security of women can be improved by removing the superannuation guarantee exemption for employees earning less than A$450 per month, and by providing for the payment of the superannuation guarantee on paid parental leave. </p>
<p>The national disability sector is expanding, and job design and skills development must be reviewed to cater for the needs of employees and their clients. </p>
<p>Finally, good policy can only be developed when we have real data. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4153.0">Time use surveys</a> provide data on how Australians use their time, whether in paid or unpaid work, or in caring responsibilities. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has not been funded to run a time use survey since 2006. Funding needs to be restored to conduct an annual time use survey to guide policy decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Hodgson receives funding from the ARC and AHURI. Helen is a member of the Social Policy Committee and a Director of the National Foundation for Australian Women (NFAW), and is on the Tax and Superannuation Advisory Panel of ACOSS. Helen was a Member of the WA Legislative Council in WA from 1997 to 2001, elected as an Australian Democrat. She is not a current member of any political party. </span></em></p>Despite the government spruiking its tax relief for Australians in this year’s budget, many women will not benefit from the tax plan.Helen Hodgson, Associate Professor, Curtin Law School and Curtin Business School, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967232018-05-16T20:14:19Z2018-05-16T20:14:19ZWhat was missing in Australia’s $1.9 billion infrastructure announcement<p>When we think about infrastructure it’s most often about bridges or roads – or, as in this week’s federal government AU$1.9 billion <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/government-response-2016-national-research-infrastructure-roadmap">National Research Infrastructure announcement</a>, big science projects. These are large assets that can be seen and applied in a tangible way. </p>
<p>It’s not hard to get excited over <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/funded-research-infrastructure-projects">money that will support</a> imaging of the Earth, or the <a href="https://www.ala.org.au/">Atlas of Living Australia</a>. </p>
<p>But important as these projects are, there’s a whole set of infrastructure that rarely gets mentioned or noticed: “soft” infrastructure. These are the services, policies or practices that keep academic research working and, now, open. </p>
<p>Soft infrastructure was not featured in this week’s announcement linked to budget 2018. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-2018-when-scientists-make-their-case-effectively-politicians-listen-96124">Budget 2018: when scientists make their case effectively, politicians listen</a>
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<h2>Ignored infrastructure</h2>
<p>An absence of attention paid to soft infrastructure isn’t just the case in Australia, it’s true globally. This is despite the fact that such infrastructure is core to running the hard infrastructure projects. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.openssl.org/">Open SSL software library</a> – which is key to the security of <a href="https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/OpenSSL">most websites</a> – has just a handful of paid individuals who work on it. It’s supported by fragile <a href="https://figshare.com/articles/Software_in_Research_Underappreciated_and_Underrewarded/5518933/1">finances</a>. That’s a pretty frightening thought. (There’s another issue in that researchers doing this work get no academic credit for their efforts, but that’s a topic for another time.)</p>
<p>There are other high profile, globally used, open science infrastructures that also exist hand to mouth. The <a href="https://doaj.org/">Directory of Open Access journals</a> which began at Lund University relies entirely on voluntary donations from supporting members and on occasional sponsorship. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/index.php">Sherpa Romeo</a> – the open database of publishers’ policies on copyright and self-archiving – came out of projects at Nottingham and Loughborough Universities in the UK. </p>
<p>In some ways these projects’ high visibility is part of their problem. It’s assumed that they are already funded, so no-one takes responsibility for funding them themselves – the dilemma of collective action.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-available-but-also-useful-we-must-keep-pushing-to-improve-open-access-to-research-86058">Not just available, but also useful: we must keep pushing to improve open access to research</a>
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<h2>Supporting open science</h2>
<p>Other even more nebulous types of soft infrastructure include the development and oversight of standards that support open science. One example of this is the need to ensure that the metadata (the essential descriptors that tell you for example where a sample that’s collected for research came from and when, or how it relates to a wider research project or publication) are consistent. Without consistency of metadata, searching for research, making it openly available or linking it together is much less efficient, if not impossible.</p>
<p>Of course there are practices in place at individual institutions as well as national organisations. The soon-to-be-combined organisations -Australian National Data Service, the National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project and Research Data Services (<a href="https://www.ands-nectar-rds.org.au/">ANDS-Nectar-RDS</a>) - are supported by national infrastructure funding. These provide support for data-heavy research (including for example the adoption of <a href="https://www.force11.org/group/fairgroup/fairprinciples">FAIR</a> - Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable standards for data). </p>
<p>But without coherent national funding and coordination, specifically for open science initiatives, we won’t get full value from the physical infrastructure just funded.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-insights-of-the-large-hadron-collider-are-being-made-open-to-everyone-70283">How the insights of the Large Hadron Collider are being made open to everyone</a>
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<h2>What we need</h2>
<p>What’s needed now? First, a specific recognition of the need for cash to support this open, soft infrastructure. There are a couple of models for this. </p>
<p>In an article last year it was suggested that libraries (but this could equally be funders – public or philanthropic) should be committing around <a href="http://intheopen.net/2017/09/join-the-movement-the-2-5-commitment/">2.5% of their budget</a> to support open initiatives. There are some international initiatives that are developing specific funding models - <a href="http://scoss.org/">SCOSS</a> for Open Science Services and <a href="https://www.numfocus.org">NumFocus</a> for software. </p>
<p>But funding on its own is not enough: we need a coordinated national approach to open scholarship – making research available for all to access through structures and tools that are themselves open and not proprietary.</p>
<p>Though there are groups that are actively pushing forward initiatives on open scholarship in Australia – such as the <a href="https://aoasg.org.au/">Australasian Open Access Strategy Group</a>, the <a href="http://www.caul.edu.au/">Council of Australian University Librarians</a>, and the <a href="https://acola.org.au/">Learned Academies</a> as well as the <a href="http://www.arc.gov.au/arc-open-access-policy">ARC</a> and <a href="https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/grants-funding/policy/nhmrc-open-access-policy">NHMRC</a> who have open access policies - there is no one organisation with the responsibility to drive change across the sector. The end result is inadequate key infrastructure - for example, for interoperability between research output repositories.</p>
<p>We also need coherent policy. The government recognised a need for national and states policies on open access in its response to the <a href="https://www.communications.gov.au/departmental-news/government-response-productivity-commissions-intellectual-property-report">2016 Productivity Commission Inquiry on Intellectual Property</a>, but as yet no policy has appeared. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/universities-spend-millions-on-accessing-results-of-publicly-funded-research-88392">Universities spend millions on accessing results of publicly funded research</a>
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<p>It’s reasonable to ask whether in the absence of a national body that’s responsible for developing and implementing an overall approach, what the success of a policy on its own would be. Again, there are international models that could be used. </p>
<p>Sweden has a Government Directive on Open Access, and a <a href="http://www.kb.se/dokument/open%20access/OpenAccess_National_Library_Sweden_2017_2019.pdf">National Body for Coordinating Open Access</a> chaired by the Vice-chancellor of Stockholm University. </p>
<p>The Netherlands has a <a href="https://www.neth-er.eu/en/news/Netherlands-Publishes-National-Plan-Open-Science">National Plan for Open Science</a> with wide engagement, supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science. In that country, the Secretary of State, Sander Dekker, has been a key champion. </p>
<p>The EU has had a long commitment to open science, underscored recently by the appointment of a high-level envoy with specific responsibility for open science, <a href="https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/open-access-scientific-publications-must-become-reality-2020-robert-jan-smits_en.html">Robert-Jan Smits</a>.</p>
<h2>Private interests might take over</h2>
<p>Here’s the bottom line: national coordinated support for the soft infrastructure that supports open science (and thus the big tangible infrastructure projects announced) is not just a “nice to have”. </p>
<p>One way or another, this soft infrastructure will get built and adopted. If it’s not done in the national interest, for-profit companies will step into the vacuum.</p>
<p>We risk replicating the same issues we have now in academic publishing - which is in the hands of multi-billion dollar companies that report to their shareholders, not the public. It’s clear how well that is <a href="https://theconversation.com/publisher-pushback-puts-open-access-in-peril-42050">turning out</a> – publishers and universities globally are in <a href="https://sparcopen.org/our-work/big-deal-cancellation-tracking/">stand offs</a> over the cost of publishing services, which continue to rise inexorably, year on year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publisher-pushback-puts-open-access-in-peril-42050">Publisher pushback puts open access in peril</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am the Director of the Australasian Open Access Strategy Group.</span></em></p>“Soft” infrastructure includes the services, policies or practices that keep academic research working and open. Without a funded, coordinated national approach the private sector may take control.Virginia Barbour, Director, Australasian Open Access Strategy Group, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965132018-05-15T05:05:53Z2018-05-15T05:05:53ZPost-budget poll wrap: Labor has equal best Newspoll budget result, gains in Ipsos, but trails in Longman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218933/original/file-20180515-122916-1upszc9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While this is Malcolm Turnbull's 32nd consecutive Newspoll loss as PM, the past two have been narrow losses. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Ellen Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This <a href="https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/web-news-newspoll-14-05-2018.pdf">week’s Newspoll</a>, conducted May 10-13 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged from three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 38% Labor (up one), 9% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (down one).</p>
<p>This Newspoll is Malcolm Turnbull’s 32nd successive loss as PM, two more than Tony Abbott. However, the past two have been narrow losses.</p>
<p>The total vote for Labor and the Greens was up one point to 47%, while the total for the Coalition and One Nation was steady at 45%. The gain for the left would normally result in a gain after preferences, but rounding probably helped the Coalition again.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labors-newspoll-lead-narrows-federally-and-in-victoria-95425">Poll wrap: Labor's Newspoll lead narrows federally and in Victoria</a>
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<p>39% (up three) were satisfied with Turnbull, and 50% (down three) were dissatisfied, for a net approval of -11, Turnbull’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">highest net approval</a> since the final pre-election Newspoll in July 2016. Bill Shorten’s net approval was down two points to -22. Turnbull led Shorten as better PM by 46-32; this is Turnbull’s clearest better PM lead since February.</p>
<p>Newspoll asks three questions after every budget: whether the budget was good or bad for the economy, good or bad for you personally, and whether the opposition would have delivered a better budget.</p>
<p>The best news for Labor was on the third question, where it only trailed by seven points, equal to their deficit after the badly perceived 2014 budget. According to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/13/newspoll-51-49-labor-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>, Labor trailed by more during all of the Howard government’s budgets.</p>
<p>This budget was seen as good for the economy by 41-26, and good for you personally by 29-27. The Poll Bludger says it is fifth out of 31 budgets covered by Newspoll on personal impact, but only slightly above average on the economy.</p>
<p>Turnbull led Shorten by 48-31 on best to handle the economy (51-31 in December 2017). Treasurer Scott Morrison led his shadow Chris Bowen 38-31 on best economic manager. By 51-28, voters thought Labor should support the government’s seven-year tax cut package.</p>
<p>Turnbull has delivered a well-received budget, while Shorten’s credibility took a hit after <a href="https://theconversation.com/dual-citizenship-debacle-claims-five-more-mps-and-sounds-a-stern-warning-for-future-parliamentarians-96267">four Labor MPs were kicked out</a> over the citizenship fiasco. </p>
<p>Voters were not sympathetic to politicians who held dual citizenships. By 51-38, they thought <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f06ddb7f7e98a2be09553857881ea8f1?width=650">such politicians should be disqualified</a> from federal parliament (44-43 in August). By 46-44, voters would oppose a referendum to change the Constitution to allow dual citizens to become MPs.</p>
<p>A key question is whether Turnbull’s ratings bounce will be sustained. The PM’s net approval and the government’s two party vote are strongly correlated, so the Coalition should do better if Turnbull’s ratings are good. Past ratings spikes for Turnbull have not been sustained.</p>
<p>While people on low incomes receive a tax cut, it will not be implemented by withholding less tax from pay packets. Instead, people will need to wait <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/treasurer-unveils-income-tax-cuts-in-budget/news-story/19c0d499e8519f4078e8a9ebb3b985a0">until they file their tax returns</a> after July 2019 to receive their lump sum tax offsets. As the next federal election is very likely to be held by May 2019, this appears to be a political mistake.</p>
<p>In last week’s Essential, 39% thought the Australian economy good and 24% poor. While Australia ran large trade surpluses in the first three months of this year, the domestic economy is not looking as good as it did in 2017 - see <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/domestic-economic-data-showing-some-weakness/">my personal website</a> for more.</p>
<h2>Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor (53-47 respondent allocated)</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/mixed-reception-third-turnbullmorrison-budget-fairfax-ipsos-poll">Ipsos poll</a> for the Fairfax papers, conducted May 9-12 from a sample of 1,200, gave Labor a 54-46 lead by 2016 election preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since early April. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up three), 36% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (down one) and 5% One Nation (down three).</p>
<p>Newspoll is no longer using last-election preferences, so it seems better to compare Ipsos’ respondent allocated preferences with Newspoll, not the last election preferences. By respondent allocated preferences, Ipsos was 53-47 to Labor, a three-point gain for Labor.</p>
<p>Ipsos is bouncier than Newspoll, and the Greens’ support is higher. If you compare Ipsos’ respondent allocated two party vote with Newspoll, the difference is diminished.</p>
<p>Turnbull had a 51-39 approval rating (47-43 in April). This is Turnbull’s best rating in Ipsos since April 2016; Ipsos gives Turnbull his strongest ratings of any pollster. Shorten’s net approval was up three points to -12. Turnbull led Shorten by 52-32 (52-31 in April).</p>
<p>By 39-33, voters thought the budget was fair (42-39 after the 2017 budget). By 38-25, voters thought they would be better off, the highest “better off” figure in Nielsen/Ipsos history since 2006. However by 57-37, voters thought the government should have used its extra revenue to pay off debt, rather than cutting taxes.</p>
<h2>Queensland Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition, 53-47 to state Labor</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/12/yougov-galaxy-52-48-federal-coalition-queensland-2/">Queensland Galaxy poll</a>, conducted May 9-10 from a sample of 900 for The Courier Mail, gave the federal Coalition a 52-48 lead, unchanged since February, but a 2% swing to Labor since the 2016 election. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (up one), 10% Greens (steady) and 10% One Nation (up one). Primary vote changes would normally imply a gain for Labor, but this was lost in the rounding.</p>
<p>By 39-33, Queenslanders thought the budget was good for them personally, rather than bad. By 39-28, they thought the budget would be good for Queensland.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/13/yougov-galaxy-53-47-state-labor-queensland/">state politics questions</a> gave Queensland Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 35% LNP (down one), 12% One Nation (up two) and 10% Greens (steady).</p>
<p>Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk had a 46-38 approval rating (44-38 previously). Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington had a 31-28 approval rating (29-25). Palaszczuk led Frecklington as better Premier 47-27 (42-31).</p>
<h2>Longman ReachTEL: 53-47 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Longman byelection is one of five that will be held soon. A <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/05/12/yougov-galaxy-52-48-federal-coalition-queensland-2/">ReachTEL poll</a>, conducted May 10 from a sample of 1,280 for the left-wing Australia Institute, gave the LNP a 53-47 lead, about a 4% swing to the LNP since the 2016 election. Primary votes were 36.7% LNP, 32.5% Labor, 15.1% One Nation and 4.9% Greens.</p>
<p>ReachTEL is using respondent allocated preferences. The two party vote in this poll looks reasonable assuming One Nation preferences flow to the LNP.</p>
<p>National polls and the Queensland Galaxy poll show swings to Labor compared with the 2016 election. It would be highly unusual for a seat to swing so strongly to the Coalition when other polling shows a swing to Labor. In the past, seat polls have been far less reliable than national and state-wide polls.</p>
<p>In better byelection news for Labor, the <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/liberal/liberal-party-not-running-candidates-in-perth-fremantle-by-elections-ng-b88834244z">Western Australian Liberals</a> will not contest either Perth or Fremantle. Fremantle has a 7.5% margin with an incumbent recontesting, but Labor only holds Perth by a 3.3% margin with no incumbent.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/centre-alliances-rebekha-sharkie-most-vulnerable-at-byelections-forced-by-dual-citizenship-saga-96401">Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie most vulnerable at byelections forced by dual citizenship saga</a>
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<h2>Essential: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>This <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Essential-Report-150518.pdf">week’s Essential</a>, conducted May 10-13 from a sample of 1,033, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 7% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>By 44-28, voters approved of the budget overall. 22% thought the tax cuts would make a difference to their household. 39% supported the tax cuts, with 30% wanting more spending on schools and hospitals and 18% preferring a reduction in government debt.</p>
<p>By 44-40, voters disagreed with giving higher income people larger tax cuts. By 79-14, voters agreed that those earning $200,000 should pay a higher tax rate than those earning $41,000.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls also have good news for the government, with the two-party preferred gap narrowing and the budget well-received.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/953762018-05-14T20:18:28Z2018-05-14T20:18:28ZHomelessness: Australia’s shameful story of policy complacency and failure continues<p>Exactly a decade ago in 2008, the Australian government committed to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjj66G3ueHaAhVHzbwKHeCxATAQFggpMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fcm%2Flb%2F4895838%2Fdata%2Fthe-road-home---a-national-approach-to-reducing-homelessness-data.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3EBmu0AS2VhmugTUkzgMR_">an ambitious strategy</a> to halve national homelessness by 2020. Through stepped-up early intervention, better homelessness services and an expanded supply of affordable housing, the problem would be tackled with conviction. Instead, as succeeding governments regrettably abandoned the 2008 strategy, homelessness in Australia has been on the rise. </p>
<p>Last week’s federal budget offered no response to this concern. And the problem is fast getting worse, as highlighted in our new <a href="https://www.launchhousing.org.au/AustralianHomelessnessMonitor">Australian Homelessness Monitor</a>, prepared for independent community organisation Launch Housing. Emulating <a href="https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/homelessness-knowledge-hub/homelessness-monitor/">a respected UK annual monitoring project</a>, this report is a comprehensive national analysis of the state of homelessness in Australia together with the potential policy, economic and social drivers of the trends across the country.</p>
<p>Recently published <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2049.0Main+Features12016?OpenDocument">2016 Census statistics</a> showed a 14% increase in overall homelessness in Australia since 2011. That’s well ahead of the nation’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3101.0Main%20Features2Sep%202017?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3101.0&issue=Sep%202017&num=&view=">population growth rate</a>. </p>
<p>Our major cities have seen much larger rises in homelessness. Recent increases have been especially big in Sydney (up 48% since 2011), Darwin (up 36%) and Brisbane (up 32%).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/homeless-numbers-will-keep-rising-until-governments-change-course-on-housing-93417">Homeless numbers will keep rising until governments change course on housing</a>
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<p>Concerningly, the numbers of people sleeping rough have been growing particularly fast. This, the most visible and extreme form of homelessness, grew nationally by 20% over the 2011-2016 period. </p>
<p>Although offset by periodic rehousing initiatives for long-term street homeless, five-year increases in the municipalities of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide have exceeded the national trend. This was especially true <a href="https://theconversation.com/ban-on-sleeping-rough-does-nothing-to-fix-the-problems-of-homelessness-71630">in Melbourne</a>. The <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/news-and-media/Pages/streetcount-h.%20ighlights-number-of-people-sleeping-rough.aspx">2016 City of Melbourne count</a> showed numbers <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/community/health-support-services/social-support/Pages/streetcount.aspx">jumped by more than 200%</a> over this period.</p>
<h2>Why are the numbers soaring?</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.launchhousing.org.au/AustralianHomelessnessMonitor">our report</a> this year highlights, many policies, or policy failures, are implicated in these trends. These include:</p>
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<li><p>social security system changes, such as shifting welfare benefit recipients onto lower payments with more conditions of eligibility, and increased <a href="http://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/ideas-for-australia-welfare-reform-needs-to-be-about-improving-well-being-not">“sanctioning” of claimants</a> </p></li>
<li><p>incremental long-term impacts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-budget-standards-show-just-how-inadequate-the-newstart-allowance-has-become-82903">inadequate welfare indexation</a>, which have increasingly eroded the ability of lower-income Australians to afford decent housing</p></li>
<li><p>criminal justice policies that are <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4512.0">increasing the prison population</a>, which leads to a rising rate of prison discharge – a moment when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-can-put-a-stop-to-the-revolving-door-between-homelessness-and-imprisonment-91394">risk of homelessness is high</a>.</p></li>
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<p>Such developments are critical in a housing market where, by international standards, <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/affordable-housing-database.htm">subsidised social housing provision is minimal</a>. This means the vast majority of Australia’s lower-income population must depend on an increasingly stressed private rental sector in which the <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/241">stock of low-cost homes is dwindling</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-do-about-30-of-homeless-people-have-a-job-95514">FactCheck Q&A: do 'about 30% of homeless people have a job'?</a>
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<p>Partly as a result, ABS statistics <a href="https://www.launchhousing.org.au/AustralianHomelessnessMonitor">cited in our report</a> show the proportion of low-income tenants in rental stress has risen from 35% to 44% over the past decade nationally. In New South Wales, it has risen from 43% to 51%. In Victoria, the figure rose from 32% to 47% over the decade.</p>
<p>The geographical pattern of recent homeless changes shows the housing market is driving these changes. Our report finds increases in homelessness have generally been much more rapid in capital cities. Non-metropolitan areas have recorded much lower growth rates, or even reductions.</p>
<p>In another pointer to housing market impacts, increases in homelessness have tended to be higher in the large eastern states. These are the states where economies and property markets have been relatively strong over the past few years. In South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia, where these factors have been less evident, the rate of homeless growth has been lower. </p>
<p>So, overall numbers were up by 53% in inner Sydney (2011-2016), but rose by a more modest 21% in Hobart. In contrast, homeless numbers fell by over 30% in remote South Australia and Western Australia.</p>
<h2>Governments have let this happen</h2>
<p>Despite these stark trends, recent Australian governments, while footing the bill for homelessness services rising well ahead of inflation, have presided over cuts in social and affordable housing. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861">Australia needs to reboot affordable housing funding, not scrap it</a>
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<p>In its 2014 budget, the Abbott government <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/bp2/html/bp2_expense-21.htm">cancelled the National Rental Affordability Scheme</a>. This was Australia’s last national affordable housing construction program. </p>
<p>An increasingly underfunded social and affordable housing system leads to a burgeoning homelessness support system. The <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2017/housing-and-homelessness/homelessness-services">cost of emergency services</a> for those lacking homes has risen by 29% in real terms over the past four years. On its current path, the cost is set to exceed A$1 billion by 2020.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/at-budget-time-remember-we-all-live-in-subsidised-housing-26520">At budget time, remember we all live in subsidised housing</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, in the face of deteriorating public housing stock and intensifying shortage, social housing investment by state and territory governments <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2017/housing-and-homelessness/housing/rogs-2017-volumeg-chapter18-attachment.xlsx">has actually fallen by 7% since 2012-13</a>. </p>
<p>Five years ago, prior to the 2013 federal election, then opposition spokeswoman on housing Marise Payne <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/parties-offer-no-real-hope-for-the-many-homeless-20130810-2rov1.html">said</a> “the Coalition’s homelessness plan” was “to abolish the carbon tax, pay down Labor’s debt, generate one million jobs in the next five years and increase our collective wealth so all of us – individuals and charities – have the capacity to help the homeless and those most in need in areas where government is not always the answer”. </p>
<p>While placing faith in philanthropy, such sentiment is underpinned by a stubborn belief that we can rely on market forces to provide suitable and affordable housing for disadvantaged Australians – just as much as for all other citizens. It is clear from the latest statistics that the official approach moulded by this thinking has failed.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>Looking to the future, the ongoing restructuring of private rental markets seems likely to keep pushing up the numbers of people subject to housing insecurity. The <a href="http://www.anglicare.asn.au/news-and-media/latest-news/2018/04/29/anglicare-australia-releases-rental-affordability-snapshot-the-rental-crisis-is-worse-than-ever">availability of affordable low-rent housing continues to contract</a>. </p>
<p>For any realistic chance of progress, the Australian government needs to reconfirm recognition of homelessness as a social ill that must not be ignored. It needs to re-engage with the problem, starting with a coherent strategic vision to reduce the scale of homelessness by a measurable amount within a defined period. And it needs to recommit to a level of government support that ensures enough social and affordable housing is provided to keep pace with growing need, at the very least. </p>
<p>Disappointingly, the federal budget provided no indication that such developments are in prospect. Yet squarely tackling Australia’s growing homelessness problem demands recognition that excluding people from safe, secure and affordable housing is effectively a <a href="https://theconversation.com/clearing-homeless-camps-compounds-the-violation-of-human-rights-and-entrenches-the-problem-82253">denial of citizenship</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95376/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hal Pawson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and Launch Housing</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Parsell receives funding from The Australian Research Council and Launch Housing. </span></em></p>A decade after the launch of a national campaign against homelessness, the trends are all going the wrong way. A new annual report highlights what’s gone wrong and what must be done.Hal Pawson, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW SydneyCameron Parsell, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/964032018-05-14T20:17:51Z2018-05-14T20:17:51ZThere is extra funding for aged care in the budget, but not enough to meet demand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218741/original/file-20180514-133183-orbhud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most elderly people want to stay at home for as long as possible.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 2018-19 budget delivered last week, federal Treasurer Scott Morrison made big promises for the aged care sector. He said the <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/speech/download/budget_speech.pdf">government would prioritise</a> “caring for older Australians” – a direct take from the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/aged-care/report">Productivity Commission’s</a> landmark 2011 report of the same name. </p>
<p>The next morning, headlines relayed the treasurer’s message that the government would increase home care packages by 14,000 over four years at a cost of A$1.6 billion. But the <a href="https://www.acsa.asn.au/ACSA/media/General/Better%20Practice%20Project/080518_ACSA_Budget_1.pdf">aged-care sector</a> quickly <a href="https://www.cota.org.au/news-items/media-release-extra-home-care-packages-welcome-aged-care-measures-will-provide-relief-older-australians/">dampened the good news</a> by pointing out more than 100,000 people are on the waiting list for a Home Care Package. While the new places were welcome, there was much more to be done to properly care for older Australians.</p>
<p>The 14,000 home care places are additional to those built into prior budgets. And there is extra money ($1.6 billion over four years) allocated to fund them in this year’s budget. But it still won’t be enough to meet demand.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/caring-for-older-australians-report-research-can-improve-quality-of-care-2738">Caring for older Australians report: research can improve quality of care</a>
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<h2>Aged care funding in brief</h2>
<p>As the needs of older people increase, they may seek support services from private or not-for-profit providers. The Australian government provides a safety net of subsidies for those unable to fully fund their own care. </p>
<p>The three <a href="https://agedcare.health.gov.au/programs">main subsidised programs</a> are:</p>
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<li><p>the <a href="https://www.myagedcare.gov.au/help-home/commonwealth-home-support-programme">Commonwealth Home Support Program</a>, which provides support services to enable older people to stay at home and be more independent in the community</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.myagedcare.gov.au/help-home/home-care-packages">Home Care Packages</a>, which deliver an agreed set of services to meet a specific need, and come in four levels of care, ranging from basic to complex personal and health care (medical care is provided and funded separately)</p></li>
<li><p>residential care and accommodation, which is available for older people unable to continue living independently.</p></li>
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<p>The level of subsidy varies according to the program and the person’s financial capacity to contribute. The federal government controls the amount of taxpayer money through both policy and the spending it announces in the annual budgets (if the parliament agrees).</p>
<p>These subsidies are provided through an <a href="https://agedcare.health.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1426/f/documents/08_2016/2016_report_on_the_funding_and_financing_of_the_aged_care_industry_0.pdf">aged care provision ratio</a>, which aims to provide 113 subsidised care places for every 1,000 people aged 70 and over. In recognition of Australia’s ageing population and the growing demand for care, the government has been changing this policy so that the ratio will increase to 125 places for every 1,000 by 2021-22. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether this will be sufficient, or even appropriate. The use of a ratio based on the number of people aged 70 and over is <a href="https://www.gen-agedcaredata.gov.au/Topics/Admissions-into-aged-care/Explore-admissions-into-aged-care">becoming less relevant</a> as people are <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/aged-care/residential-care-dynamics/residential-care-dynamics.pdf">taking up these services</a> at later ages. The average age of a person receiving a home care package had increased to 82.5 in 2015-16. And the average age was 84 for those who moved into residential care. </p>
<p>Within the overall number of places, the government also sets sub-targets for the numbers of Home Care Packages and residential care places. Most elderly people <a href="http://www.naca.asn.au/Age_Well/Blueprint.pdf">want to stay in their own homes</a> for as long as possible. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-australians-to-have-the-choice-of-growing-old-at-home-here-is-what-needs-to-change-91488">For Australians to have the choice of growing old at home, here is what needs to change</a>
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<p>So, the government is altering the mix of home care and residential care in the target of 125 places per 1,000 people. By 2021-22, the target for home care packages will increase from 27 to 45 per 1,000, while the residential target is to reduce from 88 to 78 per 1,000 – with an additional two places for restorative care (support to restore a person’s wellness and capacity to live in the community). </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218742/original/file-20180514-178740-1im0udw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">More than 100,000 older Australians are waiting for an approved care package to support them to live at home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
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<h2>What about the extra packages in the budget?</h2>
<p>This year’s budget included an extra 14,000 home care packages. The number of home care packages is growing each year anyway because the number of people aged 70 or over is increasing and the “ratio” policy is giving more emphasis to home care.</p>
<p>This is evident in the forward estimates of the 2017-18 budget, which showed subsidised home care packages <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/budget/publishing.nsf/Content/2017-2018_Health_PBS_sup4/$File/2017-18_Health_PBS_Complete.pdf">were growing</a> to a target of 134,500 by 2020-21.</p>
<p>This year’s <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/budget/publishing.nsf/Content/2018-2019_Health_PBS_sup1/$File/2018-19_Health_PBS_1.00_Complete.pdf">budget papers</a> forecast that by 2020-21, the number of subsidised home care packages will increase from an actual allocation of 87,600 in 2017-18 to 144,500 places. This is an extra 10,000 from the previous year’s forward estimates.</p>
<p>By 2021-22 (the four years Morrison referred to) the target is 151,500 – an increase of another 10,000. So there will be an overall increase of around 64,000 packages from the number available last year (87,600), of which 14,000 are additional in this budget.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seven-steps-to-help-you-choose-the-right-home-care-provider-72409">Seven steps to help you choose the right home care provider</a>
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<p>The numbers of residential and restorative care places are also increasing, by 13,550 and 775 respectively. And the budget decision to merge the residential and home care budgets will increase the flexible allocation of funds across the system. Unused residential care funding will be able to fund home care packages.</p>
<p>An increase in the proportion of care provided in a person’s home is not only what most people want, but it also helps the budget bottom line. In 2015-16 the <a href="https://agedcare.health.gov.au/sites/g/files/net1426/f/documents/08_2017/design_version_2017_acfa_annual_report.pdf">average government subsidy</a> for each home care consumer was A$16,760, compared to A$48,403 for those in residential care. Though a comparison with the higher Level 3 and 4 home care packages wipes out most of this difference. </p>
<h2>So what about the waiting list?</h2>
<p>The aged care sector has noted the demand for home care is far greater than the 14,000 additional packages. The latest estimate (at December 2017) is that 104,600 older Australians are in the national prioritisation queue, waiting for an approved care package. </p>
<p>Of these, 56,700 were not receiving any Home Care Package. A further 47,900 had been assigned a <a href="https://www.gen-agedcaredata.gov.au/www_aihwgen/media/Home_care_report/HCP-Data-Report-2017%E2%80%9318-2nd-Qtr.pdf">lower level of care</a> through an interim package while waiting for their approved one to come through.</p>
<p>As a result of the mismatch of supply and demand, the government’s policy may need to change further. This will depend in large part on the evolving needs and wishes of our elderly citizens. But it will also depend on the affordability of the subsidies for taxpayers and getting the right balance with those older Australians who can draw on their own income and wealth to meet some or all of the costs of these services. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aussies-are-getting-older-and-the-health-workforce-needs-training-to-reflect-it-67710">Aussies are getting older, and the health workforce needs training to reflect it</a>
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<p>Funding pressures, of course, are not the only concerns that need to be addressed. Another is the growing demand for aged care workers and for that workforce to be properly trained. And quality issues are also continuing to make headlines. </p>
<p>Aged care reform is progressing, but the agenda remains unfinished.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Woods was the Presiding Commissioner for the Productivity Commission's 2011 report Caring for Older Australians. Professor Woods conducts commissioned research in aged care and palliative care, including for a peak group of aged care providers.</span></em></p>The Australian government provides a safety net of subsidies for elderly Australians unable to fully fund their own care. But will the extra 14,000 home care places in the budget meet demand?Michael Woods, Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965372018-05-14T20:17:28Z2018-05-14T20:17:28ZWhat it’s like to be a ‘black economy’ worker<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218757/original/file-20180514-178761-p4wfu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People who work in the black economy come from industries as diverse as horticulture, retail, cleaning, construction and childcare.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nina, not her real name, works for a cleaning company that sends her into private homes, in exchange for about $20 an hour cash-in-hand.</p>
<p>She’s had numerous cash-in-hand jobs over the past few years. She used to work in restaurants where the pay was around $12 an hour. She told me she does it quite simply “for the money”. </p>
<p>Nina is like many other workers who are part of “the black economy” in Australia – businesses and individuals who operate outside the tax and regulatory system. The federal government announced a <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2017-18/content/glossies/means/html/means-07.htm">raft of measures to counter</a> this in the recent budget.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/precarious-employment-is-rising-rapidly-among-men-new-research-94821">Precarious employment is rising rapidly among men: new research</a>
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<p>But the black economy is more common than we think – how many of us have paid tradies, gardeners or cleaners cash without the exchange of relevant paperwork? For many people this is actually an important source of income.</p>
<p>I recently interviewed 24 black economy workers in South Australia and I found that they come from many different walks of life. They are also from different backgrounds from the highly educated with multiple degrees to those with limited education. </p>
<p>For example, Nina’s life is complex – she has family caring responsibilities, there are household debts and her husband “doesn’t allow her to work elsewhere”, despite her skills in other areas. </p>
<p>I found that some of the people I interviewed turn to the black economy simply to make ends meet. Others are “forced” into this type of work by their employers. </p>
<p>Many feel disempowered and experience multiple barriers to finding formal work that is fair and decent. I wouldn’t say that anyone I have interviewed has become a black economy worker by choice – their stories are rarely straightforward.</p>
<p>I asked Nina about the impact of informal work she does on her health and well-being. She described to me various injuries she has sustained and her concerns about being exposed to toxic cleaning chemicals. There are no required occupational health and safety standards to adhere to, though Nina chooses to wear gloves.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/workers-are-actually-feeling-less-insecure-in-their-jobs-81836">Workers are actually feeling less insecure in their jobs</a>
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<p>But, like so many other black economy workers I have interviewed, it’s the psychological effects of this type of work that often come to the fore – the powerlessness and lack of control, exploitation, shame and stress associated with “being caught”.</p>
<p>Nina told me she feels “like I’m someone from a lower class”.</p>
<p>She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I really would like to have a formal job and I’d love to pay tax, as long as I can pay for myself and my family, but unfortunately it is very hard.</p>
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<p>Some of the workers I interviewed are battling with mental illness. Others are migrants who struggle to have their qualifications recognised.</p>
<p>There are actually many legal activities contributing to the black economy such as people who pick vegetables and fruit in season and those who tutor high school students in chemistry and physics. I interviewed people who work in horticulture, retail, hospitality, arts, construction, tutoring, recycling, mechanical repairs, the beauty industry and childcare.</p>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/General/New-legislation/In-detail/Direct-taxes/Income-tax-for-businesses/Black-Economy-Taskforce--extension-of-the-taxable-payments-reporting-system-to-contractors-in-the-courier-and-cleaning-industries/">will target</a> some of these industries in response to the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/black-economy-taskforce/final-report/">recommendations</a> of the Black Economy Taskforce. These include, for example, the establishment of a hotline to detect black economy activities and the expansion of reporting requirements and measures aimed at visa holders.</p>
<p>The notion of a “fair go” is a well-recognised Australian mantra, and <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/lwom.html">is being used to sell</a> the government’s crackdown on the black economy. Many Australians would agree that everyone should pay their fair share of tax. </p>
<p>But the government’s budget announcements also implicate much smaller businesses as well as individuals, where the flow-on effects are likely to be felt by those who say they have little choice but to work for cash-in-hand. </p>
<p>Building a society where everyone pays their fair share of tax is in all our interests. However, let’s hope it doesn’t have unintended consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miriam Vandenberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The black economy is more common than we think – how many of us have paid tradies, gardeners or cleaners cash without the exchange of relevant paperwork?Miriam Vandenberg, Public Health Lecturer (University of Tasmania) and PhD Candidate, Southgate Institute for Health, Society & Equity, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/964552018-05-10T20:41:52Z2018-05-10T20:41:52ZGrattan on Friday: Shorten gives Turnbull a character-forming task on tax<p>All indications are that Malcolm Turnbull means what he says when he insists the election will be next year, but at the end of this week you could be forgiven for thinking the poll was next month.</p>
<p>It was no surprise that the budget, the last in this parliamentary term, contained a major income tax package, even if staging it over seven years stretched credulity. Normally, however, an opposition might wait some time before unveiling its detailed alternative.</p>
<p>But these times are anything but normal, and the multiple byelections Labor faces meant its sugar needed to be put straight onto the table when Bill Shorten replied to the budget on Thursday night. And the opposition leader made sure there was plenty of that sugar, with his income tax cuts bigger than the budget’s relief for lower and middle income earners.</p>
<p>Shorten gave his speech in less-than-favourable circumstances.</p>
<p>A day before, the High Court had cost him four of his caucus – it knocked out one and in a domino effect three announced their resignations - as the dual citizenship crisis rolled on.</p>
<p>The government cashed in with an attack on Shorten’s integrity, based on his refusal last year to admit that eligibility questions clearly hung over a number of ALP members.</p>
<p>The Coalition regards Shorten, who isn’t well liked by voters, as perhaps its strongest lifeline to possible electoral survival. It is perennially trying to make his character an issue, starting with the trade union royal commission. So far, the effort has only managed to inflict flesh wounds, although the constant depiction of him as “shifty” may reinforce the public’s reservations.</p>
<p>On Wednesday Shorten was trying to explain the disastrous turn of events by saying the court had changed the legal interpretation of the citizenship section. But he knew, after Senator Katy Gallagher’s disqualification, that the game was over and three resignations were imperative (though Susan Lamb, who holds the vulnerable Queensland seat of Longman, was reportedly reluctant to go).</p>
<p>Given the heat on him, it was little wonder he didn’t deliver his budget speech with much panache.</p>
<p>In his reply, the string of byelections (including one not related to citizenship) were to the forefront of Shorten’s mind. </p>
<p>“This is my challenge to the prime minister,” he said. “If you think that your budget is fair, if you think that your sneaky cuts can survive scrutiny, put it to the test. Put it to the test in Burnie, put it to the test in Fremantle and in Perth.”</p>
<p>As MPs take their post-budget soundings, two questions will stand out. Does this budget have a slow burn about it that will later singe the government? And, how will middle Australia respond to what has become an unashamed income tax auction?</p>
<p>With budgets, there’s the on-the-night reaction, followed by the delayed response. Even the now notorious Hockey 2014 budget was not initially received so badly, before the full horror sank in.</p>
<p>This week, we’ve seen a quick sign-on to the first step of the government’s three-part tax package, which gives relief to middle and lower income earners through a new tax offset. But there has been growing opposition to the latter stage of the plan, which flattens the tax scale and advantages high income earners.</p>
<p>If the budget clears the “fairness” hurdle in the short term (despite some specific failures, like the government’s refusal to address the inadequacy of Newstart), it struggles to do so further out.</p>
<p>Analyses from the University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), the Grattan Institute and elsewhere have provided grist for those critical of the tax plan’s direction.</p>
<p>NATSEM modelled key aspects of the budget and concluded:</p>
<p>“Generally, no one would be worse off due to the budget measures focusing on tax cuts. Middle income earners benefit the most in the financial year 2018-19 thanks to the introduction of the low and middle income tax offset and an increase in tax threshold. Those earning an average full-time salary of $83,000 per year would get a maximum tax offset of $530 back in the upcoming financial year.</p>
<p>"However in the long term, individuals with high incomes will benefit the most once the tax reform is fully implemented. For example a couple both earning twice the average full-time salary can expect an extra $13,000 in 2024-25,” NATSEM said.</p>
<p>As its “fairness”, or lack of it, is contested, the parliamentary fate of the more radical back-end of the budget’s tax plan remains in limbo. The government, which had to split its company tax package, is insisting it won’t go down the same path with its income tax one. But we’re in the early stage of the play.</p>
<p>The tax battle is on two fronts. In the byelections and later, Labor will continue its assault on the company tax cuts (the second part of which remains unlegislated). Shorten links the two elements in the tax war, saying Labor “can afford to cut the taxes of 10 million Australians without cutting services because unlike the Liberals we are not wasting $80 billion on a discredited corporate tax giveaway to the top end of town”.</p>
<p>Out in the electorate, the corporate tax cuts have become an even harder sell in the wake of the banking royal commission.</p>
<p>So, on tax, Malcolm Turnbull now finds himself with a triple challenge. He has to convince people that Shorten’s more generous income tax package for lower and middle income earners is irresponsible, that the budget’s long-term reform towards a flatter system is not unfair, and that the company corporate tax cuts are as vital as the government maintains for Australia’s competitiveness, growth and jobs. It’s quite a task really.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shorten gave his budget reply speech in less-than-favourable circumstances on Thursday night.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941732018-05-10T20:38:59Z2018-05-10T20:38:59ZWho are the wealthy retirees targeted in Labor’s plans?<p>In Labor’s budget reply speech, Bill Shorten reaffirmed the plan to remove refundability of dividend imputation credits. His pitch was to Australian voters on lower and middle incomes, in which he pledged to look after the country’s ageing population:</p>
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<p>We know that giving older Australians the security and dignity they deserve matters more than an $80 billion corporate tax cut. </p>
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<p>The issue of whether or not retirees should be able to get a refund in dividend imputation has sparked considerable discussion of retirees’ income and wealth. </p>
<p>The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey shows that, overall, retired people tend to have lower incomes than the population as a whole, but higher wealth. This is because retirement typically involves ceasing employment and reducing income, while wealth tends to accumulate with age, at least up to the point of retirement, mainly due to paying off the mortgage and accumulating superannuation.</p>
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<p>The different mix of income and wealth for retired and non-retired households means it’s not straightforward to compare their economic well-being. For example, the HILDA Survey data show that only 23% of retirees aged 60 and over have above-median incomes (compared with 50% of the population as a whole); but 62% have above-median household wealth.</p>
<p>That said, retirees are generally wealthy if they have both above-median household income and above-median household wealth. With this definition, 20% of retirees aged 60 and over are wealthy. This compares with approximately 28% of the Australian population as a whole.</p>
<h2>What does retirement wealth look like?</h2>
<p>Among retirees aged 60 and over, wealthy retirees are on average about two years younger than other retirees, having an average age of 71.8. Nearly 97% of wealthy retirees own their home, compared with 76% of other retirees.</p>
<p>These retirees have net wealth in 2014 (when wealth was last measured by the HILDA survey) averaging over A$2.4 million at today’s prices. </p>
<p>While wealthy retirees have high average holdings of superannuation, investment property and other investments, the home is still the most important component of their wealth. The home is also the most important asset for other retirees, but in 2014 it was worth an average of only A$400,000 (at today’s prices) for these retirees, compared with A$800,000 for wealthy retirees.</p>
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<p>Wealthy retirees get most of their income from superannuation and other investments, although government benefits (mostly the Age Pension) nonetheless average over A$11,000 per wealthy retired household. For other retirees, the Age Pension is the dominant income source, averaging A$24,000 per household.</p>
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<p>The HILDA survey data indicates that both wealthy and other retirees on average pay little income tax - A$4,256 for wealthy retirees and only A$94 for other retirees. Indeed, less than 30% of wealthy retiree households, and only 5% of other retiree households, are estimated to actually pay any income tax. </p>
<p>Moreover, the data show that 42% of wealthy retirees, and 22% of other retirees, have negative income tax because of dividend imputation credits received on their holdings of Australian shares. This does not take into account taxes and imputation credits on dividends received by superannuation funds.</p>
<p>Given the tax-free status of superannuation in people’s “retirement phase” (albeit now only on the first A$1.6 million), it’s likely that more than 42% of wealthy retirees, and more than 22% of other retirees, effectively have negative income taxes.</p>
<p>Whether you consider Labor’s plan good or bad policy, given its exemption of pensioners, it is clear that its impact will be most acutely felt by wealthy retirees.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Wilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Labor’s plan to axe franking credit refunds has reignited debate over the income and wealth of older Australians.Roger Wilkins, Professorial Research Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963572018-05-10T20:38:16Z2018-05-10T20:38:16ZVital Signs: how inflation in China and the US could affect Australia<p><em>Vital Signs is a regular economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.</em></p>
<p><em>This week: How the economies of China and the United States will affect what happens in our own.</em></p>
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<p>Business conditions in Australia have been strong enough to see a surge in company tax revenue that led Treasurer Scott Morrison to outline cuts to personal income taxes over the next seven years in Tuesday’s federal budget.</p>
<p>Those same robust business conditions were reflected in the National Australia Bank Business Conditions Index which was up sharply in April to 21 points (up 6 points from the previous month). This puts it at the highest level in twenty years.</p>
<p>NAB chief economist Alan Oster said of the figures: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The record high in the April survey simply reinforces what has been evident since the middle of last year, that business activity in Australia is robust…I see the business survey as indicative as why the government appears to be rolling in corporate tax revenue.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey in March showed a surge of job openings - up 472,000 to 6.55 million. That was the highest reading on record. It also showed more workers voluntarily leaving jobs. This is generally regarded as strong sign of worker confidence and is indicative of looming wage inflation.</p>
<p>The US Producer Price Index rose just 0.1% in April <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf">according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>, much lower than estimates of 0.3%, the level of growth in March. This put the index up 2.6% over the last 12 months, down from 3.0%.</p>
<p>This eased concerns about rising inflation that have been a major focus of discussions about interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee at recent meetings. That could make the Fed less likely to raise rates quickly, though the tightening path still seems likely.</p>
<p>All eyes will be on the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/">May 10, inflation statistics release</a> to see if there is less heat than the Fed has seemed to fear, especially with unemployment now running at 3.9%.</p>
<p>Adding to this, China’s Producer Price Index dropped by 0.2% from February, putting the annual rate at 3.1%, the weakest level since October 2016.</p>
<p>Economists were looking for an annual increase of 3.2%, down from 3.7% in February. Because China is such a significant global exporter, the lower Producer Price Index should ease any inflationary pressures in other countries. In other words, China is exporting less inflation.</p>
<p>China’s Consumer Price Index actually fell 1.1% last month, putting the annual rate at positive 2.1%. Last month’s figures in part reflect the timing of Chinese New Year, so one shouldn’t read too much into them. On the other hand, any softening of the Chinese economy is a big deal for Australian exporters and our economy generally.</p>
<p>The coming months overseas will be very revealing. We will get a better handle on whether there are genuine inflationary pressures in the US - or whether perhaps there is a new normal. That will affect short-term interest rates, but also says something about where those rates are likely to move back to in the cycle.</p>
<p>We will also get a better fix on the Chinese economy, at least in terms of growth numbers. What still remains opaque is the health of China’s financial sector. That remains a significant concern.</p>
<p>Both the US and China will factor heavily into two key things in Australia. The first is, of course, the RBA’s interest rate decisions later this year. The second is the key number in the federal budget - the 3.0% real GDP growth assumption that underpins the forecast return to surplus and the rationale for the personal income tax plan.</p>
<p>At least for the next few months, what happens overseas will be more important for the Australian economy than domestic factors per se.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At least for the next few months, what happens overseas will be more important for the Australian economy than domestic factorsRichard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963442018-05-10T20:34:22Z2018-05-10T20:34:22ZHow Captain Cook became a contested national symbol<p>Captain Cook has loomed large in the federal government’s 2018 budget. The government allocated $48.7 million over four years to commemorate the 250th anniversary of Cook’s voyages to the South Pacific and Australia in 1770. The funding has been widely debated on social media as another fray in Australia’s culture wars, particularly in the context of $84 million in cuts to the ABC. </p>
<p>Closer scrutiny suggests that this latest celebration of Cook may serve as a headline for financial resources already committed to a range of cultural programs, at least some of which could be seen as business as usual. These include the development of digital heritage resources and exhibitions at the National Maritime Museum, National Library, AIATSIS and the National Museum of Australia, as well as support for training “Indigenous cultural heritage professionals in regional areas”.</p>
<p>However, the budget package also includes unspecified support for the “voyaging of the replica HMB Endeavour” and a $25 million contribution towards redevelopment of Kamay Botany Bay National Park, including a proposed new monument to the great man. </p>
<p>So while the entire $48.7 million won’t simply go towards a monument, it’s clear that celebrating the 250th anniversary of Cook’s landing at Botany Bay is a high priority for this federal government. </p>
<p>In 1770 Lieutenant (later Captain) James Cook, on a scientific mission for the British Navy, anchored in a harbour he first called Stingray Bay. He later changed it to Botany Bay, commemorating the trove of specimens collected by the ship’s botanists, Joseph Banks and Daniel Solander. </p>
<p>Cook made contact with Aboriginal people, mapped the eastern coast of the continent, claimed it for the British Crown and named it New South Wales, allowing for the future dispossession of Australia’s First Nations. He would later return to the Pacific on two more voyages before his death in Hawaii in 1779.</p>
<p>Scholars agree that Cook had a major influence on the world during his lifetime. His actions, writings and voyages continue to resonate through modern colonial and postcolonial history.</p>
<p>Cook continues to be a potent national symbol. Partly this is due to the rich historical written and physical records we have of Cook’s journeys, which continue to reward further study and analysis. </p>
<p>But the other side to the hero story is the dispossession of Australia’s Indigenous peoples from their land. As a symbol of the nation, Cook is, and has always been, contested, political and emotional.</p>
<h2>Too many Cooks</h2>
<p>There are other European contenders for the title of “discoverer of the continent”, such as Dirk Hartog in 1616 and William Dampier in 1699. However, both inconveniently landed on the west coast. Although Englishman Dampier wrote a book about his discoveries, he never became a major figure like Cook. </p>
<p>Cook’s legend began immediately after his death, when he became one of the great humble <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Imagining_the_Pacific.html?id=aePdPAu_PTIC">heroes of the European Enlightenment</a>. <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/From_the_Ruins_of_Colonialism.html?id=zrE8AAAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">Historian Chris Healy</a> has suggested that Cook was suited to the title of founder of Australia because his journey along the entire east coast made him more acceptable in other Australian states. Importantly, unlike that other great contender for founding father, the First Fleet’s Governor Arthur Phillip, Cook was not associated with the “stain of convictism”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218401/original/file-20180510-34024-1vu7txz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Landing of Captain Cook at Botany Bay, 1770, by Emanuel Phillips Fox, 1902.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Emanuel_Phillips_Fox_Captain_Cook_Botany_Bay.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australians celebrated the bicentenary of Cook’s arrival in 1970, and the bicentenary of the arrival of the First Fleet in 1988. Throughout this period it was widely accepted that Cook was the single most important actor in the British possession of Australia, despite the fact that many other political figures played significant roles.</p>
<p>This perhaps partly explains why Cook has featured so prominently in Aboriginal narratives of dispossession, and why the celebrations in 1970 and 1988 triggered debate around Aboriginal land rights. </p>
<p>Other scholars have examined the Aboriginal perspective on Cook’s landing. In the 1970s archaeologist Vincent Megaw found British artefacts in a midden at Botany Bay. He cautiously suggested that these items might have been part of the gifts given by Cook to the Aboriginal people he encountered. </p>
<p><a href="http://assets.cambridge.org/97805217/62403/frontmatter/9780521762403_frontmatter.pdf">Historian Maria Nugent</a> has assessed the narratives recounted by Percy Mumbulla and <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/danayarri-hobbles-12397">Hobbles Danaiyarri</a>. Both were senior Aboriginal lawmen and knowledge holders who, in the 1970s and ’80s, shared their sagas of the coming of Cook to their lands with anthropologists.</p>
<h2>Too pale, stale and male?</h2>
<p>Controversy over the celebration of Cook as founding father is not a new thing. It dates back to the 19th century when his first statues were raised. </p>
<p>This latest Captain Cook fanfare comes hot on the heels of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/historian-captain-cook-statue-graffiti-indigenous-20180418-p4zade.html">broader global debates</a> about the contemporary values and meaning of civic statues of (“pale, stale, male”) heroes associated with colonialism and slavery. </p>
<p>In Australia, there has also been debate about how the events of the first world war have been commemorated so expansively by Australia. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2018/apr/09/a-500m-expansion-of-the-war-memorial-is-a-reckless-waste-of-money">further $500 million was recently allocated for the extension of the Australian War Memorial</a>, at a time when other cultural institutions in Canberra are being forced to shed jobs and tighten their belts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218400/original/file-20180510-185500-1anfe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The view from Captain Cook’s landing in Botany Bay, Kamay National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Captain_Cooks_Landing_Place_Park_-_panoramio_(3).jpg">Wikimedia/Maksym Kozlenko</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The funding cycle for our contemporary cultural institutions and activities in Australia has been closely linked to anniversaries and their commemoration since at least the 1970 bicentenary. The 2018 budget lists support for programs at a number of cultural institutions and for training Indigenous cultural heritage professionals. It would be interesting to know whether these funds have been diverted away from existing operational budgets and core activities in these institutions to support the Cook celebrations. </p>
<p>The master plan for <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/research-and-publications/publications-search/kamay-botany-bay-national-park-kurnell-draft-master-plan">Kamay Botany Bay National Park</a> has also been in development for some time. While centred on the historical event of Cook’s landing, the plan itself is more about the rehabilitation and activation of this somewhat neglected landscape. Plans have been drawn up in consultation with the La Perouse Aboriginal Land Council. </p>
<p>Should we be devoting scarce financial resources to yet another celebration of Cook? Focal events such as these can divert funds into cultural activities and may allow researchers and creative practitioners to unearth new evidence and develop fresh interpretations. Some of these funds may also go to support initiatives driven by First Nations communities. </p>
<p>There is no escaping the fact that Captain Cook is a polarising national symbol, representing possession and dispossession. Another anniversary of Cook’s landing may give us much to reflect upon, but it also the highlights the need for investment in new symbols that grapple with colonial legacies and shared futures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy Ireland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The federal government will spend nearly $50 million over four years to commemorate Captain Cook’s first landing. But some have questioned the spend.Tracy Ireland, Associate Professor Cultural Heritage, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963482018-05-09T20:23:58Z2018-05-09T20:23:58ZMost of the benefits from the budget tax cuts will help the rich get richer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218229/original/file-20180509-34015-7hqble.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Samuel/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the federal budget, Treasurer Scott Morrison promised tax cuts to all working Australians in the form of an offset and changes to tax income thresholds. But our analysis of Treasury data shows that while the government advertised these as payments to low and middle income Australians, most of the benefits would flow through to high income earners in future years.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/overview.html">If all of the stages of the tax plan</a> passed parliament, there would be a sharp increase in benefits for people earning above A$180,000, due to the reduction of their marginal tax rate from 45% to 32.5%.</p>
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<p>Taxes in most countries are progressive. This means that the more you earn, the higher your marginal rate (the additional amount you pay for each dollar earned). </p>
<p>There are good reasons for this - progressive tax systems mean those on a lower income pay a lower average tax rate, while those on higher incomes pay a higher average tax rate. This reduces income inequality - as you earn more, for each dollar you earn, you will pay more in tax than someone on a lower income.</p>
<p>With the 2018-19 budget, the proposal is for a “simpler” tax system from 2024-25. This means a reduced number of tax brackets, and a lower rate of 32.5% to those earning between A$87,001 and A$200,000. </p>
<p>Treasurer Scott Morrison said following the budget:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Well, you’ve still got a progressive tax system. That hasn’t changed. In fact, the percentage of people at the end of this plan, who are on the top marginal tax rate is actually slightly higher than what it is today. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>However this new tax system from 2024-25 is <em>less</em> progressive than the current system. It means higher income inequality - the rich get more of the tax cuts than the poor. </p>
<p>As part of the new proposal, low and middle income earners get a tax offset in 2018-19, with high income earners getting very little. This part of the plan is progressive - more money goes to lower income earners. </p>
<p>However, by 2024-25, the tax cuts means high income earners gain A$7,225 per year, while those earning A$50,000 to A$90,000 gain A$540 per year, and those earning A$30,000 gain A$200 per year.</p>
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<p>Of course, another factor of tax cuts is that they only benefit those who are employed. Tax cuts don’t benefit people like the unemployed, pensioners, students (usually young people) and those on disability support pensions.</p>
<p>The conversation Australians need to have is how we should be spending the revenue boost we are seeing over the next few years. We can either spend this windfall gain on benefits to high income earners, in the hope that this will flow through spending to everyone else; or maybe we should encourage young people into housing through an increase to the first home owners grant, or increased funding for our schools, universities and health system.</p>
<p>We’ve developed a <a href="https://stinmod.canberra.edu.au/stinmod/family_impact">budget calculator</a> so you can see how your family is affected by the 2018 budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>NATSEM analysis of Treasury data shows most of the benefits of the 2024-25 cuts are implemented flow to high income earners.Robert Tanton, Professor, University of CanberraJinjing Li, Associate Professor, NATSEM, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941662018-05-09T20:18:34Z2018-05-09T20:18:34ZWhy the need for speed? Transport spending priorities leave city residents worse off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218014/original/file-20180508-46356-10kaeng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Have Australian commuters really enjoyed gains in quality of life that would justify all those billions of dollars spent on transport infrastructure?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/angry-man-driving-vehicle-without-seat-148683359?src=JfkNVOBIorckUi02lAU-ZQ-1-57">Hayk Shalunts/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian governments are set to spend more on transport infrastructure than ever before. Federal and state infrastructure spending, <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">driven largely by transport projects</a>, was expected to total <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/construction/transport-infrastructure-boom-pushing-spend-up-80pc-in-5-years-macromonitor-20180221-h0wfa3">$31.6 billion in 2018, increasing to $38 billion in 2021</a>, even before the latest Commonwealth <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/bp2/download/bp2_expense.pdf">spending announcements</a>. Will all this construction make it easier for us to get around, our journeys more enjoyable, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">our cities more liveable</a> for a growing population?</p>
<p>Since the 1950s, spending on transport infrastructure has largely been justified on the basis of its ability to increase travel speeds or reduce travel times. For example, the New South Wales government <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/sites/default/files/WestConnex%20Updated%20Strategic%20Business%20Case%20-%20November%202015.pdf">estimates</a> its $17 billion WestConnex toll road will deliver travel time savings motorists would value at about $13 billion. But new tolls will largely cancel out any benefit. This means <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/27/westconnex-is-a-bad-deal-for-motorists-and-taxpayers-who-is-it-good-for">the ultimate beneficiary will be the toll road corporations</a>.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-we-need-a-smarter-approach-to-congestion-than-building-more-roads-84774">Stuck in traffic: we need a smarter approach to congestion than building more roads</a>
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<p><a href="https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=694596">As early as the 1960s</a>, however, it become evident that prioritising speed above all else is counterproductive. It’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-by-city-analysis-shows-our-capitals-arent-liveable-for-many-residents-85676">making our cities less efficient and liveable</a>, and consigns many people to <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-rage-why-normal-people-become-harmful-on-the-roads-60845">stressful</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">unhealthy</a> daily commutes.</p>
<p>Faster travel does allow people to move further from work and other destinations – and not have to spend any more time travelling. It’s also true that many households value the ability to move to outer suburbs, where lower land values mean they can afford a home (or a larger one). </p>
<p>But when thousands of households migrate to low-density suburbs, we end up with urban sprawl. This is bad not only for <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2015/06/01/urban-sprawl-costs-the-american-economy-more-than-1-trillion-annually-smart-growth-policies-may-be-the-answer/">productivity</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-07/urban-sprawl-contributing-to-obesity-problem-study-suggests/8331548">public health</a>, but also makes public transport less viable. Sprawl entrenches dependence on cars. This limits access to economic and social opportunities for those unable to drive.</p>
<p>High vehicle speeds and longer driving distances create multiple other problems. These include more traffic noise, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/yes-speed-really-does-kill-says-global-road-safety-review-20180404-p4z7t1.html">more road trauma</a>, higher transport costs and neighbourhoods too dangerous for children to venture outdoors on their own.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">Designing suburbs to cut car use closes gaps in health and wealth</a>
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<h2>Rethinking the need for speed</h2>
<p>The need for speed is being questioned in other aspects of modern life. The <a href="https://www.slowfood.com/about-us/">Slow Food Movement</a> urges us to savour and enjoy our meal times, rather than view eating as an unwelcome interruption to our busy days.</p>
<p>For my <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/2123/17914">PhD research</a>, I asked a similar question of our travel time. What if it’s seen not only as a cost to be minimised, but as <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-scarcity-is-a-slippery-slope-to-inactivity-69294">valuable time</a> that can be used to work, exercise or relax? </p>
<p>It’s important to note that <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-one-thing-about-commuting-that-is-strangely-stable-20180406-p4z88d.html">average daily travel times don’t decline</a> no matter how much is spent on transport infrastructure. How then can investment be prioritised to make our travel time more enjoyable and productive, while at the same time improving access to economic and social opportunities?</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/time-scarcity-is-a-slippery-slope-to-inactivity-69294">Time scarcity is a slippery slope to inactivity</a>
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<h2>Choosing to take the ‘slow road’</h2>
<p>I had observed that many people willingly choose a slower, more pleasant journey over a faster, less pleasant one. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2016.10.004">research</a> shows that, after a new cycleway opened in Sydney in 2014, some people switched to cycling from driving and public transport, even though this meant their journeys could take longer. Some people who already cycled opted for a longer route via the cycleway. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-take-to-their-bikes-when-we-make-it-safer-and-easier-for-them-82251">People take to their bikes when we make it safer and easier for them</a>
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<p>Based on such observations, I developed a <a href="http://decisio.nl/en/research/social-cost-benefit-analysis/">cost-benefit analysis</a> tool that captures the value people place on having the option to cycle to local destinations and transport interchanges in a traffic-free environment – regardless of whether their travel time changes.</p>
<p>Using this tool to assess the City of Sydney’s <a href="http://cdn.sydneycycleways.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/11010602/Cycle-Strategy-and-Action-Plan-2007-2017.pdf">proposed 200-kilometre cycling network</a>, I forecast it would increase the proportion of local residents (aged 18-55) commuting by bicycle from 4.5% to 10.7% – freeing up significant space on roads and public transport. The estimated <a href="http://bca.transportationeconomics.org/types-of-measures/benefit-cost-ratio">benefit-cost ratio</a> was 3.4. That’s better than many of the multibillion-dollar transport projects on the national <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/infrastructure-priority-list.aspx">Infrastructure Priority List</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s not yet possible to validate these forecasts. Since 2013, the NSW government has done little to promote healthy transport. It has allowed the City of Sydney to build only about five kilometres of new cycleway, demolished one of the busiest cycleways in the CBD to create space for more traffic, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/24/sydney-australia-war-cyclists-fines">increased fines</a> for trivial cycling offences. It’s not surprising the proportion of people cycling has hardly changed.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<h2>What do we want of our cities?</h2>
<p>The next step will be to adapt the tool for assessing other transport and land use initiatives that could improve the usefulness and enjoyment of travel time – and access to economic and social opportunities – without necessarily increasing speed. Possible examples include:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-one-hour-rule-for-city-travel-traffic-modelling-drives-policy-madness-53099">extra train services</a> to reduce crowding</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/autonomous-vehicles-could-help-millions-of-people-catch-up-on-sleep-tv-and-work-89603">automated vehicles</a>, which could allow passengers to work while travelling</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-people-cant-get-to-their-jobs-bring-the-jobs-to-the-people-57567">jobs growth</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-growing-big-cities-need-new-centres-of-employment-heres-melbournes-chance-93067">in suburban centres</a>, as in the Greater Sydney Commission’s <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/greater-sydney-region-plan">Metropolis of Three Cities</a> plan</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/tackling-housing-unaffordability-a-10-point-national-plan-43628">ambitious affordable housing policies</a>, enabling more low-income households to live closer to work.</li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, cost-benefit analysis is just one (far from perfect) tool for informing decisions on transport and land use proposals. Before these proposals are developed, perhaps we need to give more thought to what kind of city <a href="https://theconversation.com/liveable-cities-who-%5Bdecides-what-that-means-and-how-we-achieve-it-48825">we want to live in</a>. </p>
<p>Do we want a city that’s easy and pleasant to get around, with inviting public spaces? Or one where we have to endure stressful and expensive journeys to get anywhere, and the public realm is devoted to traffic, not people?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Standen has received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We spend on average about an hour a day travelling. Given this is unlikely to change, how can we make this time more productive and enjoyable?Christopher Standen, Transport Research Analyst, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963742018-05-09T13:04:07Z2018-05-09T13:04:07ZView from The Hill: ‘Super Saturday’ voters get first say on tax<p>The coming winter “Super Saturday” of five byelections, spread across and up and down the country, has given the battle over tax an early, sharp focal point.</p>
<p>Labor is supporting the first step of the budget’s income tax <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-pitches-tax-relief-in-election-focused-budget-96296">plan</a>, that helps middle and lower income earners. The Opposition is, however, wary and critical of the plan’s latter stage, flattening the tax scale and favouring higher earners.</p>
<p>The government introduced the tax legislation on Wednesday and wants it passed quickly and intact. Malcolm Turnbull said it would not split the package - “it is one tax reform plan”. With four of the five byelections in ALP seats, could Labor afford to play hardball over this?</p>
<p>Then there’s the timing of Labor’s tax counter plan. Without Super Saturday – the date of which is yet to be set – the opposition could have sensibly held back the detail of that. But in the new context, it would be better to have the ALP alternative out there in full.</p>
<p>We’ll get a clearer indication of Bill Shorten’s strategy when he delivers his budget reply on Thursday night. His speech has taken on extra significance now.</p>
<p>When the planned timing of the High Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-mps-resign-as-citizenship-crisis-causes-more-havoc-96341">decision</a> in the citizenship case of ACT Labor senator Katy Gallagher became known, ministers could hardly believe it. They feared their voter-friendly budget would be blown away.</p>
<p>And indeed the court has totally changed the dynamics of this budget week.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-mathias-cormann-and-jim-chalmers-on-budget-2018-96367">Politics podcast: Mathias Cormann and Jim Chalmers on Budget 2018</a>
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<p>The <a href="http://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2018/HCA/17">ruling</a> against Gallagher wasn’t unexpected. Even so, we’ve become so punch drunk from the citizenship affair that it’s easy to overlook the magnitude of Wednesday’s developments.</p>
<p>The latest round of the crisis cost the federal parliament five people in one day. Nothing like this has ever happened before.</p>
<p>Three Labor MPs and one crossbencher announced they would resign following Gallagher’s disqualification.</p>
<p>Once again, the constitution’s Section 44 has thrown a grenade into federal politics, with a swag of immediate casualties and, in the longer term, unpredictable fallout.</p>
<p>The Super Saturday contests span four states – two are in Western Australia (Josh Wilson in Fremantle, Tim Hammond in Perth), and one in each of Queensland (Susan Lamb in Longman), Tasmania (Justine Keay in Braddon) and South Australia (Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo). One of the byelections has nothing to do with citizenship – Hammond is quitting for <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-mp-tim-hammond-quits-for-family-reasons-creating-byelection-in-wa-95931">family reasons</a>.</p>
<p>Among the seats, all eyes will be on Longman, where the ALP is on a knife edge margin (0.8%) and Braddon (2.2%), as well as Mayo, where Sharkie will face a strong Liberal challenge. Her Liberal opponent is expected to be Georgina Downer, daughter of the former foreign minister Alexander Downer, who once held the seat.</p>
<p>The Super Saturday results will be important collectively, as well for the outcomes in the individual seats. If significant swings were in one direction, that would be a statement about the national mood.</p>
<p>Labor has seats at risk; if any one of the five changes hands, it will be to the Coalition. But if the ALP does well – and byelections typically swing against governments - that would give Shorten extra momentum.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dual-citizenship-debacle-claims-five-more-mps-and-sounds-a-stern-warning-for-future-parliamentarians-96267">Dual citizenship debacle claims five more MPs – and sounds a stern warning for future parliamentarians</a>
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<p>Shorten has been tarnished by the citizenship affair. He was foolishly cocky that all his MPs were compliant with the constitution. He argues now that the High Court has altered its interpretation of the citizenship provision; Attorney-General Christian Porter says this is a nonsense.</p>
<p>But will Labor’s carelessness, or that of its candidates, matter to those casting their votes? It’s hard to predict. Barnaby Joyce and John Alexander weren’t marked down in their byelections.</p>
<p>Labor has now submitted a new application for Lamb to renounce her British citizenship. It has been told by the United Kingdom Home Office this will be processed without the marriage certificate that had been sought originally but Lamb had failed to produce.</p>
<p>This highlights that Lamb was not diligent enough before the election. Her citizenship will be fixed in time for her to run, but the situation reflects badly on her.</p>
<p>Despite the all-round damage done by the citizenship saga, the government isn’t inclined to try to amend the constitution to make the section’s requirement simpler to meet. It doesn’t think a referendum would pass and it is not willing to use political capital on it.</p>
<p>The looming “mini election” has seen speculation that Turnbull might call the general election early. But in his round of post-budget interviews he again said the election would be next year. Sources say this is his position privately as well as publicly. Given that the government needs all the time it can get to try to improve its fortunes, there is no reason to doubt him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ll get a clearer indication of Bill Shorten’s strategy when he delivers his budget reply on Thursday night. His speech has taken on extra significance now.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963672018-05-09T09:57:08Z2018-05-09T09:57:08ZPolitics podcast: Mathias Cormann and Jim Chalmers on Budget 2018<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218249/original/file-20180509-34015-rxs7k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>With the government’s election focused budget released it’s now a tax showdown between the two sides. </p>
<p>Finance minister Mathias Cormann says the government is committed to the whole of their seven-year personal tax relief plan and is determined the three-part package not be broken up. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, shadow finance minister Jim Chalmers says Labor is disappointed with the government’s inflexibility on their tax plan. “It’s a real shame that they’re saying that they will hold those lower and middle income earners hostage for the rest of the package.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Finance minister Mathias Cormann and opposition finance spokesperson Jim Chalmers share their thoughts on the federal budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/961242018-05-09T06:00:27Z2018-05-09T06:00:27ZBudget 2018: when scientists make their case effectively, politicians listen<p>Budget 2018 confirms that the case for funding science is being heard in Canberra.</p>
<p>Science and research are integrated in the national objectives laid down in the treasurer’s speech: to create jobs, boost health and improve the liveability of communities.</p>
<p>Many of the measures appear to have origins in proposals advanced by the science community. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">Infographic: Budget 2018 at a glance</a>
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<h2>Lessons from Budget 2018</h2>
<p>What lessons can we take from this year’s outcome? After two years in Canberra, I haven’t discovered a magic key to the Federal coffers. But here are my general observations.</p>
<h3>Intrinsic value is not sufficient</h3>
<p>We can’t assume that the broad public support for science will translate into support for specific proposals unless we do the work to explain the benefits, including more jobs and better health. </p>
<p>Being intrinsically valuable is not sufficient. Clarity about what we can deliver is essential when science is competing with spending proposals with obvious and immediate benefits – like more hospital beds.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-isnt-broken-but-we-can-do-better-heres-how-95139">Science isn't broken, but we can do better: here's how</a>
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<h3>Politicians need help</h3>
<p>It helps to remember that most politicians aren’t experts in science policy. I’ve wrestled for years with the term “national research infrastructure”. People I talk to outside the research sector simply don’t understand it. A small change to saying “national research facilities” turns the lights on. </p>
<h3>Show outcomes</h3>
<p>It’s important for politicians to see the outcomes of public investment. They see the dollar figures in the budget papers but they don’t necessarily connect the research breakthroughs they read about in the newspapers years later to the programs that made them possible. It is important to help local members, irrespective of their party, recognise the impact of previously funded programs working for Australians. </p>
<h3>Review and communicate</h3>
<p>Take stock of progress and give credit to what has been achieved to date before heading back into the arena for the next round. As custodians of public funds, researchers should be proud to share their achievements with the taxpayers who ultimately make them possible.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-meets-parliament-doesnt-let-the-rest-of-us-off-the-hook-90692">Science Meets Parliament doesn't let the rest of us off the hook</a>
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<h3>We’re all in this</h3>
<p>Finally, I’ve always found politicians to be far more receptive to funding proposals when they see commitment from other quarters. It’s not just the Commonwealth that needs to step up. It’s business. It’s state and territory governments. It’s philanthropists. </p>
<p>If we reach out widely, we can strengthen our advocacy with new allies, and at the same time, help government to focus on the things that only government can do.</p>
<p>Below I highlight some key areas funded through Budget 2018. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Key science and technology items in Budget 2018, from the Australian Academy of Science.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>National facilities</h2>
<p>I welcome the emphasis on national-scale research facilities: I was Chair of the taskforce that delivered the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/2016-national-research-infrastructure-roadmap">2016 National Research Infrastructure Roadmap</a>. </p>
<p>This year’s budget invests $1.9 billion over 12 years, adding to the $1.5 billion over ten years committed to the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (<a href="https://www.education.gov.au/national-collaborative-research-infrastructure-strategy-ncris">NCRIS</a>) in 2015. </p>
<p>As shown below, $393.3 million is allocated in the next five years. </p>
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<p>I am encouraged that the government has committed to review the investment plan every two years, in recognition of the importance of keeping this discussion firmly on the national agenda.</p>
<p>In addition to these funds, the budget acts on an urgent priority flagged in the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/2016-national-research-infrastructure-roadmap">Roadmap</a> – high performance computing. $70 million for the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre in Perth adds to the $70 million previously committed to the National Computational Infrastructure in Canberra. </p>
<p>This builds on the $119 million announced for the European Southern Observatory in the previous budget.</p>
<h2>National missions</h2>
<p>A second notable feature is the follow-through on the national missions proposed in the <a href="https://industry.gov.au/Innovation-and-Science-Australia/Australia-2030/Pages/default.aspx">Innovation and Science Australia (ISA) 2030 Plan</a>.</p>
<p>The ISA mission to preserve the Great Barrier Reef is supported by $100 million in new investment for coral reef research and restoration projects, as part of a $500 million package <a href="https://theconversation.com/500-million-for-the-great-barrier-reef-is-welcome-but-we-need-a-sea-change-in-tactics-too-95875">announced last month</a>.</p>
<p>The ISA mission to harness precision medicine and genomics to make Australia the healthiest nation in the world is backed with $500 million over the next ten years from the Medical Research Future Fund. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-precision-medicine-is-making-a-difference-90459">Four ways precision medicine is making a difference</a>
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<p>A scaffold for the genomics revolution was provided by the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) in the recent <a href="https://acola.org.au/wp/pmed/">Precision Medicine Horizon Scanning report</a>, commissioned by the Commonwealth Science Council.</p>
<p>A forthcoming Horizon Scanning report, <a href="http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/advice-to-government/horizon-scanning/">on artificial intelligence</a>, will likewise inform the $30 million commitment to AI and machine learning in the 2018 budget. The funding includes a national ethics framework for AI – a welcome development that will position Australia well in the global AI standards debate. </p>
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<p>More broadly, the budget acts on priorities that scientists have championed for years.</p>
<p>There is $41 million for a National Space Agency, including a $15 million fund for International Space Investment. </p>
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<p>Over four years, $36 million will be provided for the Antarctic science program.</p>
<p>An amount of $4.5 million over four years is aimed to encourage more women into STEM education and careers, including a decadal plan for women in science. </p>
<p>With a focus on GPS technology, $225 million is allocated over four years to improve the accuracy of satellite navigation, and $37 million over three years for Digital Earth Australia. The goal of this funding is to make satellite data accessible for research, regional Australia and business. </p>
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<p>There is also $20 million for an Asian Innovation Strategy, including an extension of the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund for four years.</p>
<h2>Business innovation</h2>
<p>In the business arena, changes to address integrity and additionality (that is, driving R&D to levels beyond “business as usual”) in the Research and Development Tax Incentive (<a href="https://www.business.gov.au/assistance/research-and-development-tax-incentive/reference-groups-and-policy/rnd-tax-incentive-review">RDTI</a>) will reduce by an estimated $2.4 billion the money the scheme delivers to industry.</p>
<p>As one of the authors of the “3Fs” review of the RDTI – with Bill Ferris and John Fraser – I support the rebalancing of Australia’s business innovation budget. We are a global outlier in our heavy reliance on the indirect pull-through achieved through the tax system, instead of mission-driven direct investment. </p>
<p>With money recouped from the RDTI, scientists and research-intensive businesses should be making the case for more and better-targeted programs. Work remains to be done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many Budget 2018 measures appear to have origins in proposals advanced by the science community.Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, Office of the Chief ScientistLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/962622018-05-09T05:26:30Z2018-05-09T05:26:30ZLoneliness is a health issue, and needs targeted solutions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218212/original/file-20180509-34024-of3yh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's not just the elderly who feel alone. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Australian government announced in yesterday’s budget <a href="http://www.medianet.com.au/releases/160083/">$46 million towards the community visitors scheme</a> which is designed to reduce loneliness in older adults.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, Tracey Crouch was appointed the United Kingdom’s first <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-commits-to-government-wide-drive-to-tackle-loneliness">minister for loneliness</a>.</p>
<p>While it may seem unusual to some to have government take a role in improving our social connections, it makes sense when you consider the negative impact of loneliness not only on the individual, but also the wider community. But with increasing investment from government, how do we ensure programs intended to address loneliness are well-targeted and successful?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-deadly-truth-about-loneliness-43785">The deadly truth about loneliness</a>
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<h2>What is loneliness?</h2>
<p>Loneliness is a negative feeling that arises when someone’s social needs are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20652462">unmet by their current social relationships</a>. So people can feel alone, even if they’re surrounded by others, if they’re not getting the right kind of company and support. While many think of loneliness as a social issue, it also affects our health.</p>
<p>A person who perceives themselves as having less access to relationships, also <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2011.00400.x">finds physical and mental tasks more difficult</a>. People with less access to others can’t rely on group safety or “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4375548/">share the load</a>” of life’s challenges. This can result in stress. </p>
<p>Researchers found <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01832.x">hand-holding</a> with a spouse (as opposed to a stranger) can significantly reduce stress during difficult tasks. And these effects were even larger with couples that reported the highest quality relationship. </p>
<p>These emotional and psychological effects translate into physiological effects. Loneliness negatively impacts <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2014-37731-001">brain processes</a>, ability to handle <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-psychogeriatrics/article/loneliness-and-cognitive-function-in-the-older-adult-a-systematic-review/A6E74721892EBB511EEDBABC9081A826">cognitive tasks</a>, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797612464059">control of inflammation in the body</a>, ability to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29152761">regulate stress</a>, and severity of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27124713">mental health symptoms</a>, just to name a few. </p>
<p>Loneliness has been found to be a risk factor for all causes of <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/03/19/1219686110.full.pdf">early death</a> and feeling lonely increases our <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614568352">likelihood of earlier death by 26%</a>. This is greater than the <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000316&representation=PDF">risk for obesity</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-australians-living-in-nursing-homes-take-their-own-lives-92112">Too many Australians living in nursing homes take their own lives</a>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218055/original/file-20180508-34006-1e288gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Many social initiatives send in a rotating cast of volunteers, meaning quality relationships are hard to forge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutetrstock.com</span></span>
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<h2>How to reduce loneliness</h2>
<p>Reducing loneliness has obvious health benefits. But the solution isn’t as simple as connecting lonely people with other people; rather, it involves <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-07755-000">the establishment of meaningful connections</a>. Many social initiatives rely heavily on connecting lonely people with strangers and a rotating cast of volunteers. </p>
<p>Most of these programs designed to address loneliness are being implemented without testing their effectiveness. The following should be considered when addressing loneliness.</p>
<p>First, loneliness provides a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02699931.2013.837379">signal for us to seek out others</a>. The aim should be to reduce distressing levels of loneliness, rather than getting rid of loneliness per se. And we should be mindful of risk factors that are less amenable to change, such as <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614564878">genetics</a>, which can make people more predisposed to feeling lonely.</p>
<p>Second, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2792572/">loneliness can be transmitted</a> from person to person. Research shows loneliness can be passed on up to three degrees of separation from the lonely individual. Exactly how this occurs is yet to be fully understood – we have yet to explain whether loneliness is relayed via negative thoughts, behaviours, or feelings within relationships. Not understanding the transmission process may lead some to experience loneliness after interacting with the lonely. </p>
<p>Third, unhelpful thoughts and negative beliefs about others and the social world are thought to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2752489/">underpin loneliness</a>. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1088868310377394">Researchers have found</a> programs that provide social opportunities as well as helping the lonely person learn how to interact better with others are the most useful.</p>
<p>Last, the predictors of loneliness differ depending on demographics. We know, for instance, there are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22303614">two risk periods</a> for loneliness: in adolescents and young people under 25, and adults over the age of 65. How we tackle loneliness should vary for both groups. For example, an older adult may need grief counselling from a bereavement, whereas a younger person may need help coping with social anxiety.</p>
<p>A public health campaign in Australia could play a large role in destigmatising loneliness and addressing its health implications. A successful campaign could recast misconceptions of loneliness as a sign of vulnerability, fragility, or weakness, occurring only in people who are physically isolated or old. </p>
<p>Similar campaigns have been introduced in <a href="http://www.maryfonden.dk/en/loneliness">Denmark</a> and the <a href="https://www.campaigntoendloneliness.org/about-the-campaign/">UK</a>, with a <a href="http://endloneliness.com.au">national initiative</a> gathering momentum here in Australia.</p>
<p>Australian doctors and health professionals would benefit from an assessment tool to identify the risks for loneliness. Australians would also benefit from the introduction of guidelines for good social health, as well as education around positive social relationships, which could start in schools.</p>
<p>With targeted solutions, we could improve feelings of loneliness across all ages.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/loneliness-on-its-way-to-becoming-britains-most-lethal-condition-94775">Loneliness on its way to becoming Britain's most lethal condition</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle H Lim receives funding from the Barbara Dicker Brain Sciences Foundation. </span></em></p>The government has announced funding to combat loneliness in the elderly.Michelle H Lim, Senior Lecturer and Clinical Psychologist, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963452018-05-09T03:52:30Z2018-05-09T03:52:30ZBudget 2018 was old news for energy policy – the next big headlines won’t come until July<p>As with many previous budgets, matters relating to energy and climate change were relegated to little more than a footnote in Treasurer Scott Morrison’s 2018 budget speech. And even the contents of that footnote told us nothing new.</p>
<p>This will bring relief to some, but cause frustration for others.</p>
<p>No money was set aside for a new coal-fired power station, despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">plaintive calls from the backbench</a> in recent weeks. Nor was there any extra help for consumers struggling with <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">sky-high electricity bills</a>. There was no extra funding for the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-emissions-reduction-fund-is-almost-empty-it-shouldnt-be-refilled-92283">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>, but neither was money cut from the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/">Australian Renewable Energy Agency</a> or the <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/">Clean Energy Finance Corporation</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills-89450">A high price for policy failure: the ten-year story of spiralling electricity bills</a>
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<p>What Budget 2018 did contain was three “announcables” – or, to put it more accurately, re-announcables.</p>
<p>First, Morrison declared that adoption of the federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee</a> would save the average household A$400 a year on its electricity bills. This is a bit of sleight of hand. Yes, <a href="http://www.coagenergycouncil.gov.au/sites/prod.energycouncil/files/publications/documents/Report%20on%20the%20National%20Energy%20Guarantee.pdf">modelling for the NEG</a> shows that consumers’ bills will be on average A$400 lower than in 2017. But much of those savings will occur before the NEG comes into force in 2020.</p>
<p>Second, the treasurer declared that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>All energy sources and technologies should support themselves without taxpayer subsidies. The current subsidy scheme will be phased out from 2020.</p>
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<p>The subsidies to which Morrison refers are from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target-8912">Renewable Energy Target</a> (RET). But it is hardly news that the scheme will to be phased out from 2020. This has been known for a decade. In fact, it’s a bit of a stretch to say the subsidies are being “phased out” at all. </p>
<p>After 2020, existing or new renewable energy projects will still be able to generate the same renewable energy certificates for every megawatt hour of electricity they produce, which they can then sell to retailers. The ability to generate certificates – and therefore generate a subsidy – will only end in 2030. The difference between the pre- and post-2020 RET is that there will be no annual increase in the target. </p>
<p>Finally, the treasurer pledged that the federal government will keep up the pressure on the big energy companies to give consumers better electricity and gas deals. This announcement is a signal as to when we can expect to see the next real action from the government on energy. It will come in July, when Morrison receives the report on the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/publications/accc-retail-electricity-pricing-inquiry-preliminary-report">Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry</a>, which is being carried out by the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/">Australian Competition and Consumer Commission</a> (ACCC). </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-libs-claim-south-australia-states-are-falling-into-line-behind-the-national-energy-guarantee-93664">As the Libs claim South Australia, states are falling into line behind the National Energy Guarantee</a>
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<p>The Turnbull government will be keen to act on the ACCC’s recommendations, given the looming federal election and the pressure on all politicians to find a way to cut voters’ energy bills.</p>
<p>So if we want some real headlines on energy, rather than some reheated footnotes, we will be waiting for a couple of months yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison’s budget speech held no surprises on energy, after months of debate over the National Energy Guarantee. The real news comes in July with the release of a crucial ACCC report on power prices.David Blowers, Energy Fellow, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/963092018-05-08T11:30:12Z2018-05-08T11:30:12ZPolitics podcast: Tim Colebatch on the 2018 budget<p>From inside the lockup political and economic journalist Tim Colebatch speaks to Michelle Grattan about his assessment of the budget.</p>
<p>He says the income tax cuts are “well targeted” and that he can’t see any “significant negatives” from the budget. However Colebatch is “surprised the government hasn’t made more effort to find other sources of compensating tax income or making bigger spending cuts in areas where they thought there was waste”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From inside the lockup political and economic journalist Tim Colebatch speaks to Michelle Grattan about his assessment of the budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/961002018-05-08T10:54:13Z2018-05-08T10:54:13ZBudget 2018 boosts aged care, rural health and medical research: health experts respond<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217669/original/file-20180503-153878-bj78t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A$1.6 billion over four years will allow 14,000 more older Australians to remain in their home for longer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1079370020?src=dinsXReRIZxkeVRwgszEWQ-4-82&size=huge_jpg">Tanoy1412/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The winners of this year’s health budget are aged care, rural health and medical research.</em></p>
<p><em>The government has announced A$1.6 billion over four years to allow 14,000 more older Australians to remain in their home for longer through more high-level home care places. For those in aged care, an additional A$82.5 million will be directed to improve mental health services in the facilities.</em> </p>
<p><em>The budget includes A$83.3 million over five years for a rural health strategy, which aims to place more doctors and nurses in the bush and train 100 additional GPs.</em> </p>
<p><em>There’s A$1.3 billion over ten years for a National Health and Medical Industry Growth Plan, which includes A$500 million for new research in the field of genomics.</em></p>
<p><em>Other key announcements include:</em></p>
<p><em>- A$1.4 billion for new and amended listings on PBS</em> <br>
<em>- A$302.6 million in savings over forward estimates by encouraging greater use of generic and bio similar medicines</em> <br>
<em>- A$253.8 million for a new Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission.</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">Infographic: Budget 2018 at a glance</a>
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<h2>Aged care</h2>
<p><strong>Helen Dickinson, Associate Professor, Public Service Research Group at UNSW</strong></p>
<p>It was <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/budget-2018-scott-morrison-gives-seniors-a-lift-after-41bn-in-repair-measures/news-story/6918e553c8197b4a034ad8efb7200472">well foreshadowed</a> that this budget would bring with it significant provisions for aged care. It has been widely reported that reforms to pension and superannuation tax have resulted in <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/budget-boost-for-aged-care-pensioners">disaffection</a> in the Coalition within older age groups. </p>
<p>Making older Australians the cornerstone of budget measures is a calculated political tactic in a budget that in the short term makes only limited tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners.</p>
<p>The A$1.6 billion for 14,000 new places for home-care recipients will be welcome, but are a drop in the ocean, given there are currently more than 100,000 people on the national priority list for support. </p>
<p>Additional commitments around trials for physical activities for older people, initiatives to improve connections to communities and protections for older people against abuse will bolster those remaining in homes and communities. </p>
<p>Commitments made for specific initiatives for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and aged care facilities in rural and remote Australia will be welcomed, although their size and scope will likely result in little to address older age groups with complex needs.</p>
<p>While investment in aged care services will be welcome, it remains to be seen whether this multi-million-dollar commitment will succeed in clawing back support from older voters. </p>
<p>Recent years have seen around A$2 billion of cuts made to the sector through adjustments to the residential care funding formula. The current financial commitments go some way to restoring spending, but do not significantly advance spending beyond previous levels in an area of the population we know is expanding substantially in volume and level of need and expectation.</p>
<p>A number of new budget commitments have been announced in relation to mental health services for older people in residential aged care facilities, for a national mental health commission, and for Lifeline Australia.</p>
<p>However, given the current turbulence in mental health services, it’s unclear whether these will impact on the types of issues that are being felt currently or whether this will further disaggregate an already complex and often unconnected system.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218108/original/file-20180508-184630-10zjyzb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">It’s unclear whether this will be enough to win back older Australians’ support.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1058068703?src=VAaUAD9aAjbhGDa_SIyfOg-1-23&size=medium_jpg">U.J. Alexander/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Equity, prevention and Indigenous health</h2>
<p><strong>Lesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy at the University of Sydney</strong></p>
<p>The government states its desire for a <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/budget-all-about-strong-economy-treasurer">stronger economy</a> and to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/09/malcolm-turnbull-echoes-tony-abbott-on-moral-imperative-of-budget-repair">limit economic imposts on future generations</a>, but this budget highlights a continued failure to invest in the areas that will deliver more sustainable health care spending, reduce health disparities, and improve health outcomes and productivity for all Australians.</p>
<p>We know what the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/6c8ffb4a-a0f6-49f8-9b05-01f2157b822c/8_1-health-prevention.pdf.aspx">best buys in primary prevention</a> are. But despite the fact that obesity is a <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/news-media/news/2017/august/the-nation-s-heavy-burden">heavy and costly burden</a> on the health care system, and the <a href="https://www.lifestylemedicine.org.au/content/obesity-prevention-consensus-8-action-areas-to-address-obesity-in-australia/">broad agreement</a> from experts on a suite of solutions, this can is once again kicked down the road. </p>
<p>There is nothing new to address the harms caused by excessive alcohol use or opioid abuse. </p>
<p>The crackdown on illegal tobacco is about lost taxes rather than smoking prevention. </p>
<p>There is A$20.9 million over five years to improve the health of women and children – an assorted collection of small programs which could conceivably be claimed as preventive health.</p>
<p>There is nothing in this budget to address growing out-of-pocket costs that limit the ability of many to access needed care.</p>
<p>Additional funding (given in budget papers as A$83.3 million over five years but more accurately described as A$122.4 million over 2018-19 and 2019-20, with savings of A$55.6 million taken in 2020-21 and 2021-22) is provided for rural health that should help improve health equity for country Australians.</p>
<p>Continued funding is provided for the <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/indigenous-programme-lp">Indigenous Australians’ Health Program</a> (A$3.9 billion over four years); there is new money for ear, eye and scabies programs and also for a new Medicare item for remote dialysis services. </p>
<p>There are promises for a new funding model for primary care provided through Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (but no details) and better access for Indigenous people to aged care. </p>
<p>The renewal of the Remote Indigenous Housing Agreement with the Northern Territory will assist with improved health outcomes for those communities.</p>
<h2>PBS, medicines and research</h2>
<p><strong>Rosalie Viney, Professor of Health Economics at the University of Technology Sydney</strong></p>
<p>The budget includes a notable increase in net expenditure on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) of A$1.4 billion for new and amended listings of drugs, although most of these have already been anticipated by positive recommendations by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC). </p>
<p>Access to a number of new medicines has been announced. The new and amended medicine listings are clearly funded through savings in PBS expenditure from greater use of generic and bio-similar medicines, given the net increase in expenditure over the five year outlook is around A$0.7 billion. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217671/original/file-20180504-153878-6l5rir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The budget includes A$1.4 billion for pharmaceuticals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1079461421?src=uiv81b6v6KZE_qwKJhKtGw-1-70&size=medium_jpg">Iakov Filimonov/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In terms of medical research, there is an encouraging announcement of significant further investments through the Medical Research Futures Fund. This will be welcomed by health and medical researchers across Australia. </p>
<p>What is notable is the focus on the capacity of health and medical research to generate new jobs through new technology. While this is certainly important, it is as much about boosting the local medical technology and innovation industry than on improving health system performance. And the announcements in the budget are as much about the potential job growth from medical innovation as on providing more or improved health services. </p>
<p>There is new funding for medical research, development of diagnostic tools and medical technologies, and clinical trials of new drugs. The focus on a 21st century medical industry plan recognises that health is big business as well as being important for all Australians. </p>
<p>All of this is welcome, but it will be absolutely critical that there are rigorous processes for evaluating this research and ensuring the funding is allocated based on scientific merit. This can represent a major challenge when industry development objectives are given similar standing in determining priorities as health outcomes and scientific quality.</p>
<h2>Rural health</h2>
<p><strong>Andrew Wilson, Co-Director, Menzies Centre for Health Policy at the University of Sydney</strong></p>
<p>Rural Australians experience a range of health disadvantages including higher rates of smoking and obesity, poorer survival rates from cancer and lower life expectancy, and this is not solely due to the poor health of the Aboriginal community. </p>
<p>The government has committed to improving rural health services through the Stronger Rural Health Strategy and the budget has some funding to underpin this. </p>
<p>The pressure to fund another medical school in rural NSW and Victoria has been sensibly addressed by enhancing and networking existing rural clinical schools through the Murray Darling Medical Schools network. This will provide more opportunities for all medical students to spend a large proportion of their studentship in a rural setting while not increasing the number of Commonwealth supported places. </p>
<p>There is a major need to match this increased student capacity with a greater investment in specialist training positions in regional hospitals to ensure the retention of that workforce in country areas. Hopefully the new workforce incentive program will start to address this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217672/original/file-20180504-182160-1kz2ts7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The budget includes a Stronger Rural Health Strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1076915960?src=cmZ3LNlC2j9XNDC-8oS7Bg-4-23&size=medium_jpg">jax10289/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Hospitals and private health insurance</h2>
<p><strong>Peter Sivey, Associate Professor, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University</strong></p>
<p>There was no new money in today’s budget for Australia’s <a href="https://ama.com.au/ama-public-hospital-report-card-2018">beleaguered public hospitals</a>. The government is still locked in a deadlock with Queensland and Victoria, which have refused to agree to the proposed <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/sites/default/files/agreements/heads-of-agreement-hospital-funding.pdf">6.5% cap on yearly funding increases from the Commonwealth</a>. With health inflation of about 4% and population growth close to 2% the cap doesn’t allow much room for increased use due to ageing or new technology. </p>
<p>There is no change in the government’s private health insurance policy <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/private-health-insurance-shake-up-targets-youth-mental-health/9042448">announced last year</a> and nothing to slow the continuing above-inflation premium rises. </p>
<p>On the savings side, there was also no move yet on the private health insurance rebate which some experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/private-health-insurance-rebates-dont-serve-their-purpose-lets-talk-about-scrapping-them-91061">think could be scrapped</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kees Van Gool receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Aged Care Guild, Sustainability Victoria, Palliative Care Australia, One Disease.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Wilson directs and receives funding from the NHMRC Prevention Partnership Centre which is co-funded by the Commonwealth Department of Health, NSW Health, ACT Health and the HCF Health and Medicial Research Foundation and is Chair of the PBAC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Dickinson receives funding from the ARC and the NHMRC. Helen is a board member of the Consumer Policy Research Centre.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Russell previously worked for federal ALP as a senior policy advisor.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Sivey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rosalie Viney receives funding from Sustainability Victoria, NSW Health, the EuroQOL Foundation, NHMRC and ARC. Rosalie was a former member of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee.</span></em></p>Making older Australians the cornerstone of budget measures is a calculated political tactic.Kees Van Gool, Health economist, University of Technology SydneyAndrew Wilson, Co-Director, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyHelen Dickinson, Associate Professor, Public Service Research Group, UNSW SydneyLesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyPeter Sivey, Associate Professor, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT UniversityRosalie Viney, Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/955102018-05-08T10:49:33Z2018-05-08T10:49:33ZBudget 2018: what’s in store for education<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218005/original/file-20180508-46335-p90rnk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mai Lam/The Conversation NY-BD-CC</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It wasn’t a big budget for education this year, with schools funding already set in the last Budget, and the funding freeze for universities announced in the Federal Government’s mid-year budget update in December.</p>
<p>But the National Schools Chaplaincy program will become permanent, with A$247 million set aside over four years from 2018-19.</p>
<p>And there is some good news for students in regional, rural and remote areas, with:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A$96.1 million over four years for young people in regional, rural and remote communities to transition to further education, training and employment</p></li>
<li><p>A$14 million over four years for 185 Commonwealth Supported Places annually for students commencing a bachelor degree at university through a Regional Study Hub</p></li>
<li><p>A$53.9 million over four years to improve regional students’ access to youth allowance, and</p></li>
<li><p>A$123.6 million over five years to regional universities for additional Commonwealth Supported Places from 2017-18.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217985/original/file-20180507-46335-111xz8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mai Lam/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Schools and early education funding</h2>
<p><em>Glenn Savage, Senior Lecturer in Education Policy and Sociology of Education at University of Western Australia</em></p>
<p>Despite ongoing political debates about school funding, most of the big news happened in last year’s budget, when the federal government formalised details associated with its <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/funding-schools">Quality Schools</a> reform package.</p>
<p>The package centres on a commitment to align school funding with the Schooling Resource Standard (<a href="https://theconversation.com/changes-to-school-funding-your-questions-answered-77243">SRS</a>) recommended in the 2011 Gonski <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/documents/review-funding-schooling-final-report-december-2011">report into school funding</a>. </p>
<p>To achieve this, the government plans to <a href="https://theconversation.com/changes-to-school-funding-your-questions-answered-77243">progressively raise funding levels</a> for government schools from 17% to 20% of the SRS and for private schools from 76.8% to 80% of the SRS by 2027.</p>
<p>The government argues that this delivers an <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/essentials.html">additional $24.5 billion</a> for Australian schools over the decade, and says it <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/funding_will_be_tied_to_reforms.pdf">will be up to states</a> as to whether they wish to fund the remaining amounts so that all schools reach the full SRS.</p>
<p>The government also claims its reform package provides more consistent needs-based funding when compared to the so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/gonski-model-was-corrupted-but-labor-and-coalition-are-both-to-blame-65875">special deals</a>” established under the Labor Gillard government. </p>
<p>Labor doesn’t agree, suggesting the Coalition is shortchanging the nation to the tune of <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/partypol/5650034/upload_binary/5650034.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22ALP%22">A$17 billion</a> (the initial claim was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-05/fact-check-has-the-government-cut-22bn-from-schools/8526768">$22 billion</a>) when compared to promises made by the former Gillard Labor government. </p>
<p>Labor has <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/partypol/5650034/upload_binary/5650034.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22ALP%22">promised</a>, if re-elected, to return to the Gillard model.</p>
<p>This ensures funding will be a defining issue at the next federal election, especially given last week’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gonski-review-reveals-another-grand-plan-to-overhaul-education-but-do-we-really-need-it-93119">Gonski 2.0 report</a> has made a suite of recommendations that the federal government supports and could very well require an additional injection of federal funds to implement.</p>
<p>But any potential changes hinge on whether the Coalition is actually in power when next year’s budget is delivered. And, if so, whether it has any luck pursuing the new Gonski agenda with states and territories.</p>
<p>Aside from these ongoing Gonski wars, this year’s budget contains a few additional highlights.</p>
<p>Most controversial is A$247 million over four years to extend the <a href="https://education.nsw.gov.au/student-wellbeing/whole-school-approach/wellbeing-support/nscp">National School Chaplaincy Program</a>, which will have a new anti-bullying focus. The program was first introduced under the former Howard Coalition, but was subsequently dumped by Labor. It’s strongly supported <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/schools-chaplain-program-extended-with-bullying-focus/news-story/04fdad5f42fed011f3b33d13d93ef6dd">by conservative backbenchers</a>. </p>
<p>Other notables in this year’s budget include:</p>
<p>• A$440 million to extend the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/national-partnership-agreements">National Partnership Agreement on universal access to early childhood education</a> for a further year.</p>
<p>• A$154 million to promote active and healthy living. This includes A$83 million to improve existing community sport facilities and expand the <a href="https://www.sportingschools.gov.au/">Sporting Schools</a> and <a href="https://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/grants_and_funding/local_sporting_champions">Local Sporting Champions</a> programs.</p>
<p>• A$11.8 million over three years to expand the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/early-learning-languages-australia">Early Learning Languages Australia</a> program to more preschools and trial the program in 2019 and 2020 from the first year of school through to year two in primary schools.</p>
<p>• A$6 million over two years (from 2017-18) to continue and update the communications campaign to increase public awareness of changes to the Quality Schools package (aka public relations to sell the government’s reform package).</p>
<p>• A$1.3 million per year until 2020-21 to continued funding the <a href="https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/teaching">MoneySmart Teaching</a> program, designed to improve financial literacy education in schools.</p>
<p>• A$134.3 million over four years to the Northern Territory as part of the children and schooling component of the <a href="http://www.federalfinancialrelations.gov.au/content/npa/community_services/national-partnership/NT_remote_aboriginal_investment_NP.pdf">National Partnership Agreement on Northern Territory Remote Aboriginal Investment</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, the government has signalled its intention to continue exploring ways to deliver new and diverse pathways into the teaching profession, with the view to increasing the supply of quality teachers. This measure builds on previous work associated with the <a href="http://www.teachforaustralia.org">Teach for Australia</a> program. </p>
<p>To pursue this aim, <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/bp2/download/bp2_combined.pdf">the government has suggested</a> it will invite proposals in 2018 from providers to deliver alternative pathways into teaching.</p>
<h2>Higher education and VET funding</h2>
<p><em>Andrew Norton, Program Director of Higher Education at Grattan Institute</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218008/original/file-20180508-46335-nlccfc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mai Lam/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>VET</strong></p>
<p>The long aftermath of the VET FEE-HELP loan fiasco is still being felt in the 2018-19 Budget. The government is planning to spend A$36.2M over fours years for a new IT system to ensure compliance in the replacement <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/vet-student-loans">VET Student Loans </a>program. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.ombudsman.gov.au/about/vslo">VET Student Loans Ombudsman</a>, given the task of receiving student complaints about vocational education lending, is to receive another A$1 million to help deal with the large numbers of people making complaints. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217987/original/file-20180507-46341-8xuokj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mai Lam/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Higher education</strong></p>
<p>Higher education’s big Budget news came early, in the December 2017 <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2017-18/content/myefo/html/">Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook</a> (MYEFO). It announced a two-year pause in tuition subsidy growth, and a range of reforms to the Higher Education Loan Program (HELP). There is no major change to these decisions in the 2018-19 Budget.</p>
<p>The pause in tuition subsidy growth has been implemented. It was done <a href="http://andrewnorton.net.au/2017/12/17/how-can-the-government-cap-funding-for-commonwealth-supported-student-places/">without going back to parliament</a> using <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/49011">university funding agreements</a>. For domestic bachelor degree places, universities will receive the same total amount that they received for 2017 for each of 2018 and 2019. Previously, there were “demand driven”, meaning that the Government would fund every student the universities enrolled. </p>
<p>This funding freeze means that universities won’t receive the value of <a href="https://app.heims.education.gov.au/HeimsOnline/IPInfo/Payment/IndexSearch">inflation indexation</a> to <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/44991">per student Commonwealth contributions</a>, or Commonwealth contributions for any additional students they enrol above 2017 levels. But they will still receive <a href="https://www.studyassist.gov.au/help-loans-and-csps-commonwealth-supported-places/student-contribution-amounts">indexed student contributions </a> for all students they enrol. </p>
<p>The government has also used the funding agreements to reduce the number of Commonwealth-funded diploma, associate degree, and postgraduate coursework places. About 4,000 allocated places were abolished, but some of these weren’t being used anyway, so the practical effect may be limited. </p>
<p>Soon after these policies were announced, partial exceptions began with the University of Tasmania, the University of the Sunshine Coast and Southern Cross University all receiving additional places. These are <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2018-19/content/bp2/download/bp2_combined.pdf">confirmed in the Budget</a> at a cost of A$124 million over five years. </p>
<p>In addition, the Budget has a new announcement of A$96 million over four years for nearly 700 extra student places for young people from regional areas. This is in response to the <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/independent-review-regional-rural-and-remote-education">Independent Review into Regional, Rural and Remote Education</a>.</p>
<p>Including the new places, funding on Commonwealth contributions through the Commonwealth Grant Scheme will be<a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/education_and_training_portfolio_budget_statements_2018-19_full_print.pdf"> just over A$7 billion </a>for 2018-2019. </p>
<p>From 2020, the government says it will resume funding increases based on population growth for universities that meet yet-to-be determined performance criteria. The Budget paper shows predicted spending of A$7.3 billion in 2020-21. </p>
<p>But numbers this far out are moot. With an election due in the next 12 months, and Labor indicating it will <a href="http://www.tanyaplibersek.com/speech_universities_australia_conference">go back to demand driven funding</a>, the funding freeze could be over by then. If the Coalition survives in office, it may also make substantial changes. </p>
<p>The other major MYEFO announcement was to the Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) loan scheme. Unlike changes to total tuition subsidy payments, these need legislating and the relevant bill is <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6051">still before the Senate</a>. </p>
<p>The most important proposed changes to HELP are the <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/45k_hybrid_threshold_cpi_indexation_lp_0.pdf">income thresholds</a> determining whether, or how much, a HELP debtor needs to repay each year. If it passes, the bill would lower the initial repayment threshold from A$52,000 a year to A$45,000 a year. HELP debtors earning between A$45,000 and A$52,000 would repay 1% of their income. But some other thresholds are more generous than now, and many HELP debtors would end up <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/designing-a-more-sustainable-student-loan-system/">paying less per year</a> than they do now. </p>
<p>The government also originally proposed a A$100,000 lifetime cap on borrowing under HELP for all courses except medicine, dentistry and veterinary science, rather than just the full-fee student <a href="https://www.studyassist.gov.au/help-loans-and-csps/fee-help">FEE-HELP scheme</a>. The Budget confirms that the cap would be A$100,000 of HELP debt at any one time, allowing people who have paid off some debt to borrow again. </p>
<p>Whether HELP reforms eventually pass the Senate remains to be seen. In either case, it is fortunate for the higher education sector that they were not rejected prior to the May 2018 Budget. The freezing of the demand driven system showed the government was not bluffing when it said it needed to reduce higher education spending. Like the demand driven system, <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/higher-education-participation-and-partnerships-programme-heppp">equity programs</a> and some <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/research-block-grants">research programs</a> are vulnerable to cuts the parliament cannot easily stop. </p>
<p>As it turns out, these programs survive in the Budget.</p>
<p>Research funding will receive a modest boost, with nearly A$400 million extra over five years for <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/national-collaborative-research-infrastructure-strategy-ncris">research infrastructure</a>.</p>
<p>Although the higher education sector gets off lightly in the Budget compared to MYEFO, higher education providers will be hit with extra charges. The Government plans to charge them more for the services of the <a href="https://www.teqsa.gov.au/">Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency</a>. </p>
<p>The government also plans to charge higher education providers A$10 million a year to recover costs associated with HELP. We can only hope some of this is used to improve on the current very unsatisfactory public reporting of HELP’s finances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Norton has served on two government panels, the review of the demand driven system 2013-14 and the higher education expert panel 2016-17. The demand driven review role was paid. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn C. Savage receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Education policy experts run through the major changes for education in Budget 2018 for schools, VET and higher education.Andrew Norton, Program Director, Higher Education, Grattan InstituteGlenn C Savage, Senior Lecturer in Education Policy and Sociology of Education, and ARC DECRA Fellow (2016-19), The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/960112018-05-08T10:48:58Z2018-05-08T10:48:58ZBudget 2018: space agency details still scant - but GPS and satellite imagery funded<p>The Federal Government has announced <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">$41 million of funding</a> to kickstart the Australian space sector over the next four years. </p>
<p>The $41 million of funding is allocated across:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>establishing the national space agency ($26 million over four years - $5.7 million in 2018/19, $9.8 million in 2019/20, $11.8 million in 2020/21 and $13.7 million in 2021/22)</p></li>
<li><p>international space investment ($15 million for grants over three years).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>As expected, the funding establishes a national space agency, and ex-CSIRO head Dr Megan Clark is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-03/australia-space-agency-funding-in-federal-budget-2018/9720370">tipped to serve</a> as the inaugural head. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2018-at-a-glance-95649">Infographic: Budget 2018 at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The surprise in the budget is the around $260 million investment in applying satellite data to Australia – mostly in precise positioning but also in satellite imagery. </p>
<p>The applications of space technology cover:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>$225 million for precise positioning technology that makes GPS signals accurate to centimetres, not metres, which unlocks efficiency and automation possibilities in agriculture, mining and transport </p></li>
<li><p>$36.9 million to improve “Digital Earth Australia”, a platform that assembles global satellite images of Australia in a user-friendly and publicly accessible way. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>End to ambivalence</h2>
<p>This budget marks the first time Australia has had an official space agency, and puts an end to decades of Australian ambivalence towards civilian space.</p>
<hr>
<h3>Timeline of key events in Australia’s space activities from 1957-2018: click on arrows at right and left to go back and forth.</h3>
<iframe src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.html?source=1XyVlDLjkmySON9coL-C6aQawqPOUakVkFDWwcgpPwzs&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=2&height=650" width="100%" height="650" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe>
<p><em>Adapted with permission from Kerrie Dougherty - this timeline first appeared in her <a href="https://theconversation.com/lost-in-space-australia-dwindled-from-space-leader-to-also-ran-in-50-years-83310">review</a> of Australia’s space activities in 2017.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>The emphasis on industry shows the agency’s mission is to enable the growing Australian space sector to strut its stuff on a global stage.</p>
<p>The space industry is worth <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-new-reports-add-clarity-to-australias-space-sector-a-crowded-and-valuable-high-ground-88004">more than A$400 billion per year</a>, and plays an increasingly vital link in civil and military activity.</p>
<p>The government’s concept of a space agency is as an economic and national security play – it is not aimed as a catch-up attempt to lavishly funded international peers like NASA. </p>
<p>With this budget, the government is trying to walk a fine line between enabling successful Australian businesses in the high-tech space game, and creating a sector dependent on government largesse. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/space-agency-for-australia-heres-why-its-important-96105">Space Agency for Australia: here's why it's important</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Four key aims of the space agency</h2>
<p>The $41 million over four years is about the minimum viable amount to start towards these goals. Sensibly spent, it is enough to achieve the core aims of an Australian agency.</p>
<p><strong>International credibility for Australian space:</strong> Australian space businesses bidding for international work dread the question “why doesn’t Australia have an agency?” as it’s often the prelude to “without an agency it’s just too risky for us to work together”. A funded agency takes this objection off the table and levels the playing field.</p>
<p><strong>Support for Australian business:</strong> Early-stage grants to help businesses prove concepts – for example, to build a launch-ready small satellite – are within the means of this budget. This will help Australian startups cross the “valley of death” from concept to export-ready, space-tested hardware.</p>
<p><strong>Federal and international coordination:</strong> A mix of state and federal agencies have a hand in civilian space activities; a funded agency will help impose order domestically and serve as a focal point for international engagement with other space agencies.</p>
<p><strong>Long term strategic planning for the sector:</strong> Space is a long lead-time business. The agency will be responsible for strategic planning for the sector. The money will give its plans clout and an ability to nudge startups and universities into growth areas through funding allocations.</p>
<p>This is not the sort of funding for an agency that will be hiring engineers and building its own spacecraft. Most of the money will be spent in partnerships with commercial companies and universities to help get new ideas and good companies off the ground. </p>
<p>Some will be spent with international agencies to give Australia a “seat at the table” and a chance to bid for international contracts. These partnerships are the likely role of the $15 million earmarked for space investment.</p>
<p>The budget is light on detail and there are many unanswered questions, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>what areas will Australia focus on?</p></li>
<li><p>where will key parts of the agency be located?</p></li>
<li><p>what will the future of the agency look like after the four years?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>I look forward to seeing these details in the near future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Wicht is affiliated with the Space Industry Association of Australia and the Center for a New American Security. The Alliance 21 program receives funding from the Australian Government and industry.</span></em></p>$41M over four years is about the minimum viable amount to start towards important goals for an Australian space agency.Anthony Wicht, Alliance 21 Fellow (Space) at the United States Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/959282018-05-08T10:39:41Z2018-05-08T10:39:41ZFederal Budget 2018: a state-by-state spending analysis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217710/original/file-20180504-153914-539cxc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><h2>New South Wales and ACT</h2>
<p><em>Anika Gauja, Associate Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney</em></p>
<p>With income tax cuts and a return to surplus earlier than expected, Treasurer Scott Morrison has certainly delivered a budget full of pre-election sweeteners. New South Wales itself isn’t a big winner, however, with only A$1.5 billion of the A$24 billion earmarked for infrastructure projects heading its way. </p>
<p>The projects that have been announced are strategically targeted: A$400 million will be spent on upgrading the Port Botany rail link, and A$50 million will go towards investigating the business case for the proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/badgerys-creek-9268">Badgery’s Creek airport rail</a>. The Pacific Highway will be upgraded with a new A$1 billion bypass at Coffs Harbour, bringing a windfall to the Nationals-held seat of Cowper. Scott Morrison’s own electorate will get A$25 million for a new monument commemorating the 250th anniversary of Captain Cook’s landing.</p>
<p>The “election budget” takes on even more significance in NSW, where voters will most likely go to the polls twice in the coming 12 months, with the next state election due in March 2019. By allocating only a modest proportion of infrastructure funding to NSW, the federal Coalition has made it hard for its NSW counterpart to capitalise on spending announcements during the state campaign. </p>
<p>If the state election is held before the next federal election, this might indicate confidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s government will be returned. Yet it might also signal a strategic focus away from NSW, where the state election could act as a buffer to absorb some of the disaffection that might otherwise be directed at the federal government.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Victoria</h2>
<p><em>David Hayward, Professor of Public Policy and Director, VCOSS-RMIT Future Social Service Institute, RMIT University</em></p>
<p>Victoria is one of the big winners from the budget, through a mixture of luck and good political management. </p>
<p>First the luck. Mainly due to higher-than-expected population growth, Victoria will receive a bigger share of the national Goods and Services Tax pool, with revenue growing by a whopping A$1.4 billion, or almost 10% to A$17.3 billion. For the first time, Victoria’s share of GST revenues will be almost the same as its share of Australia’s population.</p>
<p>Also growing rapidly is the state’s share of federal infrastructure spending, which is tipped to rise from barely 8% to 15%. This is where the good political management part comes in. Over the last three years, Premier Daniel Andrews and Treasurer Tim Pallas have hit the airwaves to great effect, <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/its-time-to-give-victoria-its-fair-share/">complaining bitterly</a> about the state’s low levels of infrastructure investment under the Turnbull government. </p>
<p>With an election only six months away, the federal government has finally responded with a cool A$7.6 billion in total. Most of that investment will flow into a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/melbourne-airport-train-victoria-commonwealth-need-to-agree/9648300">Melbourne Airport rail link</a> (A$5 billion), a North East toll road that is yet to gain the support of the opposition (A$1.75 billion), and a rail link to Monash University’s Clayton Campus (A$500 million).</p>
<p>Much of this money won’t be seen for many years, with the spend next year being just A$900 million. The airport rail link is unlikely to start being built until 2026. There will also be some wrangling well before then, with the federal government determined to “equity” fund and the Victorian government looking for good old-fashioned capital grants.</p>
<p>Overall, though, this is a good-news budget for Victorians and the Victorian government. Just don’t expect opposition leader Matthew Guy to be smiling. </p>
<hr>
<h2>Western Australia</h2>
<p><em>Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Murdoch University</em></p>
<p>Today the budget confirmed that the West Australian government would get another A$2.8 billion to spend on transport infrastructure, and A$189 million to spend on hospitals. Low- to middle-income earners in WA, like everyone else in the country, can now expect around A$500 back by way of an increased tax rebate. West Australians were told last week that they would get around A$1 billion more through a revised GST carve-up.</p>
<p>The crucial question now is whether Western Australians will see the federal government’s budget and the GST boost as a visit from Santa or Scrooge.</p>
<p>They had been wondering where the money would come from to pay for infrastructure projects, especially Perth’s Metronet, promised by State Labor during the last election campaign. Now they know. Well, most of it. A couple of billion dollars more will be needed to fund the projects. </p>
<p>Western Australians were expecting 45 cents back for every dollar in GST raised in the state (up from 34c) and they were told they would in fact get 47c. But Victorians will get A$1.8 billion more in funding, and 98c in the dollar back from their GST.</p>
<p>Many people in the West will be wondering whether another A$10 a week in their pocket is all that much, especially given Perth’s notorious coffee prices.</p>
<p>In a pre-election budget, and in a state in which the Liberal vote is falling, the Santa or Scrooge question is important – and the answer is still not really clear.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Queensland</h2>
<p><em>Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, University of Queensland</em></p>
<p>As expected, Scott Morrison’s third federal budget is big on pleasure and light on pain for Queenslanders. With a federal election due within a year, and given Queensland’s status as a battleground state, the temptation to splash the cash in the Sunshine State is strong.</p>
<p>Committing almost A$536 million (A$478 million of it new) over five years to improve the health of the Great Barrier Reef has been welcomed widely, although criticised in some conservation circles for supporting programs that don’t directly address the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>The biggest smiles are reserved for proponents of infrastructure spending, especially to relieve commuter congestion, with A$5.2 billion newly earmarked for projects in Queensland.</p>
<p>This includes a A$1 billion boost for expanding the M1 motorway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, A$170 million for the Amberley interchange section of the Cunningham Highway near Ipswich, and A$3.3 billion for much-needed upgrades to the Bruce Highway. There is also A$390 millon for the Sunshine Coast rail line duplication, a project that has long been advocated by local Liberal National Party MPs.</p>
<p>Significantly, but not surprisingly, there is no federal funding for the Cross River Rail project in Brisbane, a <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/jackie-trad-is-hoping-money-for-cross-river-rail-will-be-in-the-federal-budget-20180507-p4zdts.html">longstanding bone of contention</a> between the Labor state government and the federal Coalition. Instead, Morrison has pledged A$300 million for the LNP-controlled Brisbane City Council’s Metro transport project.</p>
<p>Regional Queensland hasn’t been ignored, with A$176 million promised for the long-
proposed construction of Rockhampton’s Rookwood Weir, dependent on equivalent
state funding. Federal Nationals MPs hope this will boost Coalition support in marginal central Queensland seats, where the popularity of One Nation looms large.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Northern Territory</h2>
<p><em>Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University</em></p>
<p>The federal budget’s impact in the Northern Territory was determined before the territory’s own budget was released last week.</p>
<p>Two days before the NT budget came out, Treasurer Scott Morrison gave the territory a A$259 million top-up to compensate for its reduced GST revenue share. (A sweetener, perhaps, for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-17/fracking-to-resume-in-the-northern-territory-moratorium-lifted/9666022">approving fracking</a>?). </p>
<p>Morrison also promised a A$550 million contribution to the territory’s indigenous housing budget. The Country Liberal Party candidate for the Labor seat of Lingiari also announced A$250 million to extend the indigenous Ranger program. And the NT received $280 million in roads funding, as well. </p>
<p>The NT has three problems in coming years. Its public service expenditure is overly large and top-heavy, meaning its cost is rising faster than inflation. Secondly, its population is growing relatively slowly compared with the rest of Australia. Finally, the territory’s Aboriginal population is decreasing as a proportion of the national Indigenous population, as more people in cities on the east coast have begun identifying as Indigenous in recent censuses. </p>
<p>These factors affect the territory’s relativities as calculated by the Commonwealth Grants Commission. The NT’s relativities have declined from 5.4% to 4.6% in the coming year. This means the NT received A$540 million less in its general purpose grant than if the 2010 relativities settings were still in place. </p>
<p>That will likely only get worse as the territory’s debt burden is expected to become intolerable within two decades.</p>
<hr>
<h2>South Australia</h2>
<p><em>Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University</em></p>
<p>The twin focus of the 2018 budget was tax relief and a strong focus on support for older people. </p>
<p>This will have a mixed impact on South Australia. SA has a disproportionately older population compared with the rest of the country. In theory, the state should then benefit from a range of Scott Morrison’s measures to increase aged care places and support for in-home care.</p>
<p>The tax relief measures might also well offer some respite to residents, given concerns about cost-of-living prices.</p>
<p>Yet, the budget does little to directly tackle economic inequality in the state. SA has the highest youth unemployment in the nation. The lack of an increase to the state’s Newstart allowance will not help young people out of work. The treasurer also didn’t flag any specific measures to tackle other youth issues, including pathways into the housing market. Nor are there specific stimulus job measures, meaning any positive job growth effects might well take some time to kick in.</p>
<p>For Steven Marshall’s freshly minted Liberal government, however, there are opportunities in the budget, especially the 21st Century medical plan, which aligns well with his rejuvenation agenda to create medical precincts. </p>
<p>The government will also receive money to fund specific infrastructure measures, such as the North-South roads corridor. Whether this spending is proportionate to SA’s size and needs, however, remains unclear. The Marshall government will still likely need to be proactive to bring additional funding to the state for other infrastructure projects, such as solving traffic hot spots in Adelaide.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tasmania</h2>
<p><em>Maria Yanotti, Lecturer of Economics and Finance Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania</em></p>
<p>Cuts to GST revenue and personal income tax will have the biggest impact for Tasmanians. Changes to the GST carve-up could deliver a A$29 million drop in state government revenue, which will restrict state expenditure as GST payments account for 40% of the state’s budget. </p>
<p>Conversely, the cut to personal income tax will mean more disposable income for many in Tasmania, where annual average earnings are A$53,357, but the median annual income is just A$29,796.</p>
<p>The measures to improve longer life choices for older Australians, as well as the fully funded roll-out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, will also be welcomed in Tasmania. People aged 65 years and over represent almost 20% of the state’s population, the aged care residential services industry employs 2.8% of Tasmanians (relative to 2% of all Australians), and the health care and social assistance sector is the state’s biggest employer.</p>
<p>Investment in infrastructure, defence equipment, space industry, and research and development are arguably the way to go into the future. Most Tasmanians will support the Great Barrier Reef package and some will indirectly benefit from the Melbourne airport train link. However, the federal budget is again offering little that’s truly new for Tasmania, with most of the funding going to pre-existing commitments. </p>
<p>Investment in agricultural competitiveness and access to export markets, accompanied by cuts in business taxes and business support, will stimulate growth of businesses in an economy that receives a large share of Commonwealth income. Meanwhile, levelling the playing field for small business will benefit many emerging boutique businesses in the state.</p>
<p>Tasmania’s population, tourism industry, private businesses and economy have all been growing, which is always good for the incumbent government. Launceston and Hobart are progressing with “City Deals”, and the University of Tasmania is “transforming”. However, this progress has been accompanied by strong house price growth and housing pressure, while educational levels are still low.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is a Research Associate with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hayward works for RMIT University, is Chair of the University’s Academic Board and is a member of RMIT Council. He has received Australian Research Council funding. He is also affiliated with the Victorian Council of Social Service, as a life member and Board member. He has previously done funded contract research for a variety of state and local government departments. He has also done funded contract research for a number of public service unions. He is a member of a variety of Victorian state government advisory committees in the areas of disability and family violence. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Manwaring is affiliated with The Fabians</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen has received funding from the NT Departments of Education and Local Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anika Gauja, Ian Cook, and María Yanotti do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a federal election looming within a year, our panel looks at what each state and territory has been handed in the budget - and why it matters.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandAnika Gauja, Associate Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyDavid Hayward, Professor of Public Policy and Acting Director, VCOSS-RMIT Future Social Service Institute, RMIT UniversityIan Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch UniversityMaría Yanotti, Lecturer of Economics and Finance Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of TasmaniaRob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityRolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.