tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/finland-1370/articlesFinland – The Conversation2024-03-18T13:45:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994412024-03-18T13:45:00Z2024-03-18T13:45:00Z100,000 years and counting: how do we tell future generations about highly radioactive nuclear waste repositories?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519023/original/file-20230403-22-qlgar9.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3456%2C2276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden, where KBS-3 repository technologies have been tested.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anna Storm</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Europe, increasing efforts on climate change mitigation, a sudden focus on energy independence after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and reported breakthroughs in <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/20/climate/nuclear-fusion-energy-breakthrough-replicate-climate/index.html">nuclear fusion</a> have sparked renewed interest in the potential of nuclear power. So-called <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/17/french-government-passes-bill-to-accelerate-the-construction-of-new-nuclear-reactors_6026936_19.html">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs) are increasingly under development, and familiar promises about nuclear power’s potential are being revived.</p>
<p>Nuclear power is routinely portrayed by proponents as the source of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/05/world/iter-nuclear-fusion-climate-intl-cnnphotos/">“limitless”</a> amounts of carbon-free electricity. The rhetorical move from speaking about “renewable energy” to “fossil-free energy” is increasingly evident, and telling.</p>
<p>Yet nuclear energy production requires managing what is known as “spent” nuclear fuel where major problems arise about how best to safeguard these waste materials into the future – especially should nuclear energy production increase. Short-term storage facilities have been in place for decades, but the question of their long-term deposition has caused <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-radioactive-problem-struggles-dispose-nuclear-waste-french-nuclear-facility/">intense political debates</a>, with a number of projects being <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/german-nuclear-phaseout-leaves-radioactive-waste-problem/a-66661614">delayed</a> or <a href="https://ejatlas.org/print/nuclear-waste-storage-near-the-spanish-frontier-of-portugal">cancelled entirely</a>. In the United States, work on the Yucca Mountain facility has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/18/nuclear-waste-why-theres-no-permanent-nuclear-waste-dump-in-us.html">stopped completely</a> leaving the country with 93 nuclear reactors and no long-term storage site for the waste they produce.</p>
<p>Nuclear power plants produce three <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oekoinstitut/23144291019">kinds of radioactive waste</a>: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Short-lived low- and intermediate-level waste; </p></li>
<li><p>Long-lived low- and intermediate-level waste; </p></li>
<li><p>Long-lived and highly radioactive waste, known as spent nuclear fuel.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The critical challenge for nuclear energy production is the management of long-lived waste, which refers to nuclear materials that take thousands of years to return to a level of radioactivity that is deemed “safe”. According to the US <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/radwaste.html">Nuclear Regulatory Commission</a> (NRC), in spent fuel half of the radiation in strontium-90 and cesium-137 can decay in 30 years, while it would take 24,000 years for plutonium-239 to return to a state considered “harmless”. However, exactly what is meant by “safe” and “harmless” in this context is something that <a href="https://www.xcdsystem.com/wmsym/2018/pdfs/FinalPaper_18430_0321010427.pdf">remains poorly defined</a> by international nuclear management organisations, and there is surprisingly little international consensus about the time it takes for radioactive waste to return to a state considered “safe” for organic life.</p>
<h2>“Permanent” geological repositories</h2>
<p>Despite the seeming revival of nuclear energy production today, very few of the countries that produce nuclear energy have defined a long-term strategy for managing highly radioactive spent fuel into the future. Only Finland and Sweden have confirmed plans for so-called “final” or “permanent” geological repositories.</p>
<p>The Swedish government <a href="https://skb.com/nyhet/the-government-approves-skbs-final-repository-system/">granted approval</a> for a final repository in the village of Forsmark in January 2022, with plans to construct, fill and seal the facility over the next century. This repository is designed to last 100,000 years, which is how long planners say that it will take to return to a level of radioactivity comparable to uranium found in the earth’s bedrock.</p>
<p>Finland is well underway in the construction of its <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/finland-built-tomb-store-nuclear-waste-can-it-survive-100000-years">Onkalo high-level nuclear waste repository</a>, which they began building in 2004 with plans to seal their facility by the end of the 21st century.</p>
<p>The technological method that Finland and Sweden plan to use in their permanent repositories is referred to as <a href="https://skb.com/future-projects/the-spent-fuel-repository/our-methodology/">KBS-3 storage</a>. In this method, spent nuclear fuel is encased in cast iron, which is then placed inside copper canisters, which are then surrounded by clay and bedrock approximately 500 metres below ground. The same or similar methods are being considered by other countries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-nuclear-waste-whats-the-plan-and-can-it-be-safe-181884">such as the United Kingdom</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582198/original/file-20240315-26-xd0r1h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A test KBS-3 canister buried underground at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anna Storm</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sweden and Finland have described KBS-3 as a world-first nuclear-waste management solution. It is the product of decades of scientific research and negotiation with stakeholders, in particular with the communities that will eventually live near the buried waste.</p>
<p>Critical questions remain about the storage method, however. There have been widely publicised concerns in Sweden about the <a href="https://www.mkg.se/en/scientifically-inferior-skb-report-on-copper-corrosion-in-lot-project-shows-that-copper-is-not">corrosion of test copper canisters</a> after just a few decades. This is worrying, to say the least, because it’s based on a principle of passive safety. The storage sites will be constructed, the canisters filled and sealed, and then everything will be left in the ground without any human monitoring its safe functioning and with no technological option for retrieving it. Yet, over 100,000 years the prospect of human or non-human intrusion into the site – both accidental or intentional – remains a serious threat.</p>
<h2>The Key Information File</h2>
<p>Another major problem is how to communicate the presence of buried nuclear waste to future generations. If spent fuel remains dangerous for 100,000 years, then clearly this is a time frame where languages can disappear and where the existence of humanity cannot be guaranteed. Transferring information about these sites into the future is a sizeable task that demands expertise and collaboration internationally across the social sciences and sciences into practices of nuclear waste memory transfer – what we refer to as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/27539687231174242">nuclear memory communication</a>.</p>
<p>In a project commissioned by the Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Company (SKB), we take up this precise task by writing the “Key Information File” – a document aimed at non-expert readers containing only the most essential information about Sweden’s nuclear waste repository under development.</p>
<p>The Key Information File has been <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_15060/preservation-of-records-knowledge-and-memory-across-generations-developing-a-key-information-file-for-a-radioactive-waste-repository">formulated</a> as a summary document that would help future readers understand the dangers posed by buried waste. Its purpose is to guide the reader to where they can find more detailed information about the repository – acting as a “key” to other archives and forms of nuclear memory communication until the site’s closure at the end of the 21st century. What happens to the Key Information File after this time is undecided, yet communicating the information that it contains to future generations is crucial.</p>
<p>The Key Information File we will publish in 2024 is intended to be securely stored at the entrance to the nuclear waste repository in Sweden, as well as at the National Archives in Stockholm. To ensure its durability and survival through time, the plan is for it to be <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_15088/preservation-of-records-knowledge-and-memory-across-generations-final-report">reproduced in different media formats and translated into multiple languages</a>. The initial version is in English and, when finalised, it will be translated into Swedish and other languages that have yet to be decided.</p>
<p>Our aim is for the file to be updated every 10 years to ensure that essential information is correct and that it remains understandable to a wide audience. We also see the need for the file to be incorporated into other intergenerational practices of knowledge transfer in the future – from its inclusion into educational syllabi in schools, to the use of graphic design and artwork to make the document distinctive and memorable, to the formation of international networks of Key Information File writing and storage in countries where, at the time of writing, decisions have not yet been made about how to store highly radioactive long-lived nuclear waste.</p>
<h2>Fragility and short-termism: a great irony</h2>
<p>In the process of writing the Key Information File, we have discovered many issues surrounding the efficacy of these strategies for communicating memory of nuclear waste repositories into the future. One is the remarkable fragility of programs and institutions – on more than one occasion in recent years, it has taken just one person to retire from a nuclear organisation for the knowledge of an entire programme of memory communication to be halted or even lost.</p>
<p>And if it is difficult to preserve and communicate crucial information even in the short term, what chance do we have over 100,000 years?</p>
<p>International attention is increasingly fixated on “impactful” short-term responses to environmental problems – usually limited to the lifespan of two or three future generations of human life. Yet the nature of long-lived nuclear waste requires us to imagine and care for a future well beyond that time horizon, and perhaps even beyond the existence of humanity.</p>
<p>Responding to these challenges, even partially, requires governments and research funders internationally to provide the capacity for long-term intergenerational research on these and related issues. It also demands care in developing succession plans for retiring experts to ensure their institutional knowledge and expertise is not lost. In Sweden, this could also mean committing long-term funding from the <a href="http://www.karnavfallsfonden.se/informationinenglish.4.725330be11efa4b0a3f8000131.html">Swedish nuclear waste fund</a> so that not only future technical problems with the waste deposition are tackled, but also future <em>societal</em> problems of memory and information transfer can be addressed by people with appropriate capacity and expertise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199441/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keating's work is partly supported by Svensk Kärnbränslehantering (grant no.24992). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Storm's work is partly supported by Svensk Kärnbränslehantering (grant no. 24992) and by the Swedish Research Council (grants no. 2020-00623 and no. 2020-06548).</span></em></p>Spent nuclear fuel remains dangerous for so long that languages can disappear and humanity’s very existence cannot be guaranteed. So how do we communicate information about repositories into the future?Thomas Keating, Postdoctoral Researcher, Linköping UniversityAnna Storm, Professor of Technology and Social Change, Linköping UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247082024-03-13T16:20:55Z2024-03-13T16:20:55ZFinland managed to halve its suicide rate – here’s how it happened<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580125/original/file-20240306-24-fgv5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5442%2C3601&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-mature-couple-life-vests-canoeing-1952066041">Aleksandra Suzi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The end of the 20th century was a particularly grim period for Finland. Suicide rates were among the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1994/02/21/finnish-men-defy-experts-maintain-lead-in-suicides/9bb6bdba-51e3-4c82-a4ab-8b827443edf4/">highest in the world</a>, peaking in 1990 with over 30 deaths per 100,000 citizens, compared with a European average of ten per 100,000. </p>
<p>Finland responded aggressively, implementing a comprehensive national strategy, and ultimately cutting this rate by more than half, to about <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/age-standardized-suicide-rates-(per-100-000-population)">13 deaths per 100,000</a>. </p>
<p>Each suicide is unique, with many precipitating factors and personal characteristics, adverse occurrences and failures to get help. These things add up and finally cluster in a lethal way. </p>
<p>That is why there is no single remedy when it comes to suicide prevention. There are, however, several factors that may have contributed to the decline in the Finnish suicide rate. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.julkari.fi/handle/10024/77888">main strategy</a> undertaken by the Finnish government included educating health and other care workers to conduct a comprehensive, nationwide research project that collected data on all suicides that occurred during a one-year period. </p>
<p>§The research project itself was a huge intervention, spanning Finland’s 400-plus municipalities, which provided direct feedback on suicide rates and specific preventive actions, simultaneously raising awareness of suicide risks. </p>
<p>The media learned to report on suicides in a neutral way – without glorifying or romanticising language. Policies were implemented to limit access to firearms and poisons. And the arrival of a <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/depression/in-depth/ssris/art-20044825">new generation</a> of antidepressants, with fewer side-effects, in the 90s may also have contributed to bringing down the rate. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blister pack of antidepressants" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580127/original/file-20240306-18-21a9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The newer generation of antidepressants, such as Prozac, had fewer side-effects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/green-white-10-packet-pills-depression-666180598">callumrc/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Counterintuitively, the fast rise of mobile phones in the 90s may have given a big helping hand, too. While we now look at mobile devices and social media as a source of decreasing physical social contacts, they probably helped people keep in touch with others in this large, sparsely populated country. (Loneliness and a lack of sense of belonging are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192%2Fj.eurpsy.2022.2320">known risk factors</a> in suicide.)</p>
<p>But to what extent was Finland unique in experiencing a decline in suicide rates? </p>
<h2>How other countries fared</h2>
<p>Over roughly this same period, suicide rates have fallen <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep20256">across Europe</a>. We can never be certain why this is the case, but a good guess might be that there is now better awareness of suicide and <a href="https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2019/05/mental-health-survey">greater willingness</a> to talk about mental health. As in Finland, suicide is also reported in a <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240076846">more neutral way</a> in the media. </p>
<p>And, as mentioned above, the new generation of so-called SSRI antidepressant drugs may have played a large role in the fall in suicides, along with more effective mental health treatments, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0145445507304728">cognitive behavioural therapy</a>. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the outlook is not universally bright, as death by suicide is increasing in some parts of the world. For example, suicide rates in the US have <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-051920-123206">increased by 35%</a> in the first decades of the 21st century, now amounting to about 14 deaths per 100,000. </p>
<p>Why are some countries seemingly thriving in the modern era and others seemingly seeped in despair? This probably points to inequality in wellbeing distribution that leaves some groups vulnerable and unprotected. </p>
<p>In the US, the risk groups seem to include under-educated, marginalised younger people, many of whom are victims of the opioid epidemic. We know that suicide risk is higher among poorer people, and Finland, with its more extensive Nordic welfare state, may be better equipped when it comes to the difficult task of suicide reduction.</p>
<p>The story continues in Finland, where the current <a href="https://stm.fi/en/mental-health-policy-guidelines">mental health strategy</a> includes a suicide-prevention programme with similar focuses to the previous agenda, with an added emphasis on improving crisis services. And they’re conducting a nationwide suicide study on <a href="https://ulosepatoivosta.fi/en/">young people’s suicides</a>. The synthesis of these findings, coupled with continuing endeavours, has the potential to further decrease the rate.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>If you’re struggling with suicidal thoughts, the following services can provide you with support:</em></p>
<p><em>In the UK and Ireland – call Samaritans UK at 116 123.</em></p>
<p><em>In the US – call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-TALK (8255) or IMAlive at 1-800-784-2433.</em></p>
<p><em>In Australia – call Lifeline Australia at 13 11 14.</em></p>
<p><em>In other countries – visit IASP or Suicide.org to find a helpline in your country.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marieke Liem receives funding from the Dutch Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Prencipe and Sami Pirkola do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Putting Finland’s precipitous drop in suicides in context.Leah Prencipe, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Public Health, Leiden UniversityMarieke Liem, Professor of Violence and Interventions, Leiden UniversitySami Pirkola, Professor of Social Psychiatry, Tampere UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223512024-02-12T19:23:13Z2024-02-12T19:23:13ZThe private sector housing experiment has failed: Ottawa must now step up on social housing<p>Politicians of all stripes say that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-poilievre-housing-election-1.6970389">housing affordability is a top priority</a>. But few are saying much about social housing — the kind that’s needed for low-income households in greatest need of affordable rental housing.</p>
<p>Social housing is non-market housing, either publicly owned or non-profit, and substantially subsidized to ensure low-income renter households pay no more than 30 per cent of their gross income on rent. Canada was committed to this kind of housing after the Great Depression, but <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/modules/prb99-1-homelessness/housing-e.htm">began to step away from it in the early 1990s.</a></p>
<p>With funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the <a href="https://www.moresocialhousing.ca/">Social Housing and Human Rights coalition</a> is bringing together researchers, advocates and people across Canada experiencing homelessness and housing precarity to raise public awareness about the causes and solutions to the lack of housing for low-income renters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-housing-crisis-will-not-be-solved-by-building-more-of-the-same-175221">Canada’s housing crisis will not be solved by building more of the same</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Failed private sector experiment</h2>
<p>I am a researcher and member of the coalition organizing committee. We <a href="https://mra-mb.ca/wp-content/uploads/Social-Housing-and-Human-Rights-Conference-Primer-small.pdf">have synthesized research</a> that tells the story of a 30-plus year experiment, aligned with the rise of neoliberalism, to rely on the private sector to respond to all housing needs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>Our examination of housing policy in liberal democracies including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and throughout Europe leads us to conclude, as does the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), that <a href="https://www.oecd.org/social/social-housing-policy-brief-2020.pdf">“social housing is a key part of past and future housing policy.</a>”</p>
<p>We conclude that if we are to begin to make progress on an increasingly daunting challenge, the government of Canada will need to do two things:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Create a minimum of 50,000 new rent-geared-to-income social housing units each year for 10 years, starting now. These units should be targeted for the lowest income renter households and those experiencing homelessness, and should have rents permanently set at no more than 30 per cent of household income.</p></li>
<li><p>Invest now in the acquisition, construction, operation and maintenance of new and existing public, non-profit and co-operative-owned housing that meets the unique and varied requirements of low-income renters and people experiencing homelessness.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-co-ops-could-solve-canadas-housing-affordability-crisis-181104">Housing co-ops could solve Canada's housing affordability crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Just scratching the surface</h2>
<p>We recognize that adding 50,000 additional units annually is not nearly enough. Instead, we recommend this as a minimum, based on the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) projected <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/accelerate-supply/housing-shortages-canada-updating-how-much-we-need-by-2030">need to expand overall supply by building 5.8 million homes</a> over the next decade. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.moresocialhousing.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/More-Social-Housing-Call-to-Action-backgrounder.pdf">We estimate</a> that because 33.5 per cent of households are renters, 194,300 of this supply should be rental. Since the <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/2021-census/">CMHC has found that approximately a quarter of renters are paying more than 30 per cent of income on rent, living in housing in poor repair or living in crowded conditions,</a> we believe a minimum of 48,575 (rounded up to 50,000) of new rental housing should be at rent-geared-to-income rates affordable to low-income renters. </p>
<p>This more than triples the target in the federal government’s <a href="https://www.placetocallhome.ca/">National Housing Strategy</a> and redirects the focus from modest affordability to deeply affordable. This amount is relatively consistent with <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/perspectives.articles.economy.2023-01-social-housing-scotiabank-report.html">calls to double the number of social housing units to more closely align with the OECD average</a>.</p>
<p>New social housing supply requires capital investments for construction so that new housing can be built, and for acquisition so existing properties can be purchased and repurposed or renovated as needed. </p>
<p>New and existing social housing supply also requires investments in ongoing subsidies to support the costs of operating the housing while charging rent-geared-to-income rents. It will require ongoing capital investments for the purpose of maintaining the quality of housing and preserving the stock. Operating costs may include services and programs that support tenants.</p>
<h2>Calls for change ignored</h2>
<p>Social Housing and Human Rights coalition members are now reaching out to MPs across the country to make the case that more social housing is needed. It’s a challenge. </p>
<p>Despite the evidence, some are quick to tell us they don’t believe social housing is needed and that governments should simply incentivize private sector developers and remove “red tape.”</p>
<p>But our research shows no evidence this will work. </p>
<p>Private-sector solutions were the focus of cost-shared federal/provincial/territorial initiatives beginning in 2001 through the <a href="https://scics.ca/en/product-produit/a-framework-to-guide-housing-initiatives-in-canada-by-the-provincial-and-territorial-pt-ministers-responsible-for-housing/">Affordable Housing Framework Agreement</a>. <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Background-Primer-on-Canadas-Housing-system-APRIL-20-2021.pdf">But the emphasis on limited capital grants per unit resulted in modest development of units renting at 80 per cent of average market rents</a>, unaffordable to low-income households. Furthermore, agreements requiring rents be set at affordable rates for 15 years have now expired.</p>
<p>The shortage of truly affordable rental housing across Canada has only worsened because governments have not been willing to invest in social housing. Yes, it is expensive — at least in the short term — and it is getting more expensive each year. But as <a href="https://www.munifin.fi/whats-new/finnish-system-for-affordable-social-housing-supports-social-mixing-and-brings-down-homelessness/#:%7E:text=No%20family%20homelessness%20in%20Finland,are%20affordable%20social%20housing%20apartments.">demonstrated by Finland, a country that has remained committed to social housing investment</a>, it pays off in the long term. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A red brick apartment building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An affordable housing complex in Espoo, Finland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Finland</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/how-finland-managed-to-virtually-end-homelessness/article_bde7a0aa-5e51-5700-b272-6347ddf69f04.html">The Finns have tackled homelessness like no other country</a>. They know that without public investment in safe, stable housing, people are at higher risk of having poor mental and physical health, poor education outcomes, weaker labour market attachment and a host of other issues that governments must attend to. </p>
<p>There are many strategies needed simultaneously to address housing affordability. The expansion of social housing supply is one.</p>
<p>But calls are all too often ignored by governments turning to the private sector for low-cost quick fixes that continue to fail those in greatest need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shauna MacKinnon receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council</span></em></p>There are many strategies needed simultaneously to address housing affordability in Canada. The expansion of social housing supply is a particularly effective one.Shauna MacKinnon, Professor and Chair, Department of Urban and Inner-City Studies, University of WinnipegLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188722023-12-12T18:01:46Z2023-12-12T18:01:46ZArctic Report Card 2023: From wildfires to melting sea ice, the warmest summer on record had cascading impacts across the Arctic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564907/original/file-20231211-25-r8pwap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Giovanna Stevens grew up harvesting salmon at her family’s fish camp on Alaska's Yukon River. Climate change is interrupting hunting and fishing traditions in many areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/aYukonRiverDisappearingSalmon/fa2665d81c31479a916a237985eec432/photo">AP Photo/Nathan Howard</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 shattered the record for the <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">warmest summer in the Arctic</a>, and people and ecosystems across the region felt the impact. </p>
<p>Wildfires forced evacuations <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151985/tracking-canadas-extreme-2023-fire-season">across Canada</a>. Greenland was so warm that a research station <a href="https://nsidc.org/ice-sheets-today/analyses/sudden-shift-southern-heat">at the ice sheet summit</a> recorded melting in late June, only its fifth melting event on record. <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-august-2023">Sea surface temperatures</a> in the Barents, Kara, Laptev and Beaufort seas were 9 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit (5 to 7 degrees Celsius) above normal in August. </p>
<p>While reliable instrument measurements go back only to around 1900, it’s almost certain this was the Arctic’s hottest summer in centuries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows Arctic temperatures in 2023 and a chart shows changing heat over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564698/original/file-20231210-27-qjqbgc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1120&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Summer heat extremes in 2023 and over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/">NOAA, Arctic Report Card 2023</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year started out unusually wet, and snow accumulation during the winter of 2022-23 was above average across much the Arctic. But by May, high spring temperatures had left the <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/terrestrial-snow-cover-2023/">North American snowpack at a record low</a>, exposing ground that quickly warmed and dried, fueling lightning-sparked fires across Canada.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">2023 Arctic Report Card</a>, released Dec. 12, we brought together 82 Arctic scientists from around the world to assess the Arctic’s vital signs, the changes underway and their effects on lives across the region and around the world.</p>
<h2>Heat’s cascading effects throughout the Arctic</h2>
<p>In an area as large as the Arctic, setting a new temperature record for a season by two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) of warming would be significant. Summer 2023 – July, August and September – <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">shattered the previous record</a>, set in 2016, by four times that. Temperatures almost everywhere in the Arctic were above normal.</p>
<p>A closer look at <a href="https://www.gov.nt.ca/en/newsroom/shane-thompson-historic-2023-wildfire-season">events in Canada’s Northwest Territories</a> shows how rising air temperature, sea ice decline and warming water temperature feed off one another in a warming climate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows 2023 spring snow cover duration. A chart shows Arctic snow cover falling since the 1980s." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1035&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1035&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1035&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564696/original/file-20231210-23-a3z2r8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1300&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arctic snow cover in 2023 and over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/">NOAA, Arctic Report Card 2023</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">winter snow cover melted early</a> across large parts of northern Canada, providing an extra month for the Sun to heat up the exposed ground. The heat and lack of moisture dried out organic matter on and just below the surface; by November, <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report">70,000 square miles</a> (180,000 square kilometers) had burned across Canada, about a fifth of it in the Northwest Territories. </p>
<p>The very warm weather in May and June 2023 in the Northwest Territories also <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">heated up the mighty Mackenzie River</a>, which sent massive amounts of warm water into the Beaufort Sea to the north. The warm water melted the sea ice early, and currents also carried it west toward Alaska, where Mackenzie River water contributed to early sea ice loss along most of Northeast Alaska and to increased tundra vegetation growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows Arctic sea surface temperatures in 2023 and a chart shows temperatures rising over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1050&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1320&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564695/original/file-20231210-21-9359yk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1320&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sea surface temperatures have been rising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/">NOAA, Arctic Report Card 2023</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similar warmth in western Siberia also contributed to quickly melting sea ice and to high sea surface temperatures in the Kara and Laptev seas north of Russia. </p>
<p>The Arctic’s declining sea ice has been a big contributor to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004">tremendous increase in average fall temperatures</a> across the region. Dark open water absorbs the sun’s rays during the summer and, in the autumn, acts as a heating pad, releasing heat back into the atmosphere. Even thin sea ice can greatly limit this heat transfer and allow dramatic cooling of air just above the surface, but the past 17 years have seen the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/">lowest sea ice extents</a> on record.</p>
<h2>Subsea permafrost: A wild card for climate</h2>
<p>The report includes <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">12 essays</a> exploring the effects of climate and ecosystem changes across the Arctic and how communities are adapting. One is a wake-up call about the risks in subsea permafrost, a potentially dangerous case of “out of sight, out of mind.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/672770">Subsea permafrost</a> is frozen soil in the ocean floor that is rich in organic matter. It has been gradually thawing since it was submerged after Northern Hemisphere ice sheets retreated thousands of years ago. Today, warmer ocean temperatures are <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">likely accelerating the thawing</a> of this hidden permafrost.</p>
<p>Just as with permafrost on land, when subsea permafrost thaws, the organic matter it contains decays and releases methane and carbon dioxide – greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming and worsen ocean acidification.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows most subsea permafrost off Siberia but also some off Alaska and Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Known permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere. Greens are subsea permafrost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.grida.no/resources/13519">GRID-Arendal/Nunataryuk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists estimate that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc014675">nearly 1 million square miles</a> (2.5 million square kilometers) of subsea permafrost remains, but with little research outside the Beaufort Sea and Kara Sea, no one knows how soon it may release its greenhouse gases or how intense the warming effects will be.</p>
<h2>Salmon, reindeer and human lives</h2>
<p>For many people living in the Arctic, climate change is already disrupting lives and livelihoods.</p>
<p><a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/">Indigenous observers describe changes</a> in the sea ice that many people rely on for both subsistence hunting and coastal protection from storms. They have noted <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/30d30ab062ea4aadb39b3734dd7770ae">shifts in wind patterns</a> and increasingly intense ocean storms. On land, rising temperatures are making river ice less reliable for travel, and thawing permafrost is sinking roads and destabilizing homes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map with disasters and indicators of trouble in a warming Arctic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564028/original/file-20231206-29-r7k3zu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Highlights from the Arctic Report Card 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/">NOAA, Arctic Report Card 2023</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Obvious and dramatic changes are happening within human lifetimes, and they cut to the core of Indigenous cultures to the point that people are having to change how they put food on the table.</p>
<p>Western Alaska communities that rely on Chinook salmon saw another year of extreme low numbers of returning adult salmon in 2023, scarcity that disrupts both <a href="https://doi.org/10.5751/es-11972-260116">cultural practices and food security</a>. Yukon River Chinook have <a href="https://www.aykssi.org/wp-content/uploads/1615-AYK_SSI-EQ-Expert-Panel-Report-Illustrated-Summary-April-2020.pdf">decreased in size</a> by about 6% since the 1970s, and they’re producing fewer offspring. Then, in 2019, the year when many of this year’s returning Chinook salmon were born, exceptionally warm river water killed many of the young. </p>
<p>The returning Chinook salmon population has been so small during the past two years that <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/dcfnewsrelease/1499128659.pdf">fisheries have been closed</a> even for subsistence harvest, which is the highest priority, in hopes that the salmon population recovers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1a36">inability to fish, or to hunt</a> seals because the sea ice has thinned, is not just a food issue. Time spent at fish camps is <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2021/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-food-access-for-alaska-natives-in-2020/">critical for many Alaska Indigenous cultures</a> and traditions, and kids are increasingly missing out on that experience. </p>
<p>As Indigenous communities adapt to ecosystem changes, people are also working to heal their landscapes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in colorful jacket and hat stands surrounded by dozens of reindeer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564916/original/file-20231211-21-nsrchx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Sámi reindeer herder in traditional clothes counts new calves while preparing the herd for the arduous winter months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sami-reindeer-herder-in-traditional-brightly-coloured-news-photo/535053696">In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Finland, an <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/peatlands-and-associated-boreal-forests-of-finland-under-restoration/">effort to restore damaged reindeer habitat</a> in collaboration with Sámi reindeer herders is helping to preserve their way of life. For many decades, commercial logging was allowed to tear up hundreds to thousands of square miles of reindeer peatland habitat. </p>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/w_DUAzQMH_w?feature=shared">The Sámi</a> and their partners are working to replant turf and rewild 125,000 acres (52,000 hectares) of peatlands for reindeer grazing. Degraded peatlands <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00547-x">also release greenhouse gases</a>, contributing to climate change. Keeping them healthy helps capture and store carbon away from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Temperatures in the Arctic have been rising <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3">more than three times faster</a> than the global average, so it’s not surprising that the Arctic saw its warmest summer and sixth warmest year on record. The 2023 Arctic Report Card is a reminder of what’s a stake, both the risks as the planet warms and the lives and cultures already being disrupted by climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Thoman receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for serving as an editor for the Arctic Report Card.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew L. Druckenmiller receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for serving as an editor for the Arctic Report Card.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Twila A. Moon receives funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for serving as an editor for the Arctic Report Card.</span></em></p>The early heat melted snow and warmed rivers, heating up the land and downstream ocean areas. The effects harmed salmon fisheries, melted sea ice and fueled widespread fires.Rick Thoman, Alaska Climate Specialist, University of Alaska FairbanksMatthew L. Druckenmiller, Research Scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado BoulderTwila A. Moon, Deputy Lead Scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193442023-12-08T14:53:05Z2023-12-08T14:53:05ZDoes exercise really do nothing for longevity, as a Finnish twins study suggests?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564483/original/file-20231208-25-jfdagi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5742%2C3828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fitness-woman-jumping-outdoor-urban-environment-1080117269">BGStock72/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Surveys on lifestyle and longevity consistently find that people who do more exercise live longer. So it is surprising to see a report from the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10274991/">Finnish Twins Cohort Study</a> that there is little direct effect of “leisure time physical activity” on lifespan. What makes this study different from others – and is it right?</p>
<p>Human behaviour and biology are complex and interact with wider society and the environment. How much exercise a person gets could be linked to their genetics, diet, disabilities, education, wealth, or just whether they have enough leisure time and a safe green space. Each of these factors could also be linked to lifespan in different ways. </p>
<p>You can probably think of a dozen other things that might be associated both with a person’s health and the amount of exercise that they do. The direction of the causation will not always be clear. Although it is certainly true that people who exercise more will, on average, live longer, it is far more difficult to know how much is caused by the exercise itself, versus these other factors. </p>
<p>How can we hope to isolate this single causal effect from the complexity of people’s lives?</p>
<p>Studies of twins can help us here. Twins have similar or identical genetics and early life experiences, so we can more directly test how differences in their later-life behaviour affect lifespan.</p>
<p>This is precisely the approach taken by researchers at the University of Jyväskylä in Finland. They used exercise questionnaires given to 11,000 pairs of adult same-sex twins in 1975, 1981 and 1990, and linked this to death records up to the year 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young identical blond twins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564485/original/file-20231208-25-4vzws2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Studying twins can help scientists determine whether a certain trait, illness or disorder is influenced more heavily by genes or the environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-portrait-twin-girls-two-beautiful-2292761521">Andrey Zhernovoy/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Least and most active groups biologically older</h2>
<p>They found that, as expected, the most active had a 24% lower rate of death compared with the least active. This effect is smaller than suggested by previous studies, and most of the excess risk was confined to the least active 10% of the study participants. </p>
<p>They also looked at biological age, measured by the degree of DNA damage (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00077-8">methylation</a>) and, surprisingly, found that both the most and the least active groups appeared biologically older than the others. </p>
<p>Pairing twins deals with genetics and early life differences, but what about other aspects of health behaviour? </p>
<p>When smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) were taken into account in the analysis, the link between exercise and longevity was much reduced, with only a 9% difference in death rate between the least active group and others – and no difference between the highly and moderately active. In other words, for a hypothetical twin pair with very different activity levels but the same smoking history, alcohol use and BMI, there would be very little difference in life expectancy. </p>
<p>But what does it mean to change exercise levels while all other aspects of health remain constant? For example, if the effect of exercise on death was mediated by weight loss, then this analysis would not reveal that link. And if exercise increases but weight does not change, then must something else be compensating? </p>
<p>There was also some evidence that the effect of exercise was stronger in the first 20 years after the assessment compared to the subsequent decade. So it is possible that exercise needs to be maintained to keep its longevity benefits into later life. </p>
<p>This would agree with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1402378/">evidence from clinical trials</a> that show more immediate benefits of exercise interventions on health in people with existing conditions.</p>
<h2>Smaller role than previously thought</h2>
<p>So what can we safely conclude from these new findings – which have won a national sports medicine prize in Finland, but are yet to be peer-reviewed? </p>
<p>Clearly, people who exercise more live longer on average. Genetics, social factors, existing health and other aspects of lifestyle explain some of the association. We should not rule out a direct link between exercise and longevity, but this study suggests that it may have a smaller role than previously thought.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, experimental evidence shows that exercise can prevent illness and disability, <a href="https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/57/18/1203">improve mood</a> and <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/414776">overall quality of life</a>, which many would regard as more meaningful outcomes than lifespan alone. </p>
<p>It can be difficult for people to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4988401/">maintain lifestyle changes</a>, and so social and environmental efforts, such as <a href="https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/improving-publics-health/access-green-and-open-spaces-and-role-leisure-services">maintaining high-quality green spaces</a>, to support healthy lifestyles are important. </p>
<p>Social inequalities in health and lifespan <a href="https://www.health.org.uk/publications/reports/the-marmot-review-10-years-on">exist and are growing</a> so it’s vital that we continue to refine our understanding of the reasons why and what we should do about it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George M. Savva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We should not rule out a direct link between exercise and longevity, but it may have a smaller role than previously thought.George M. Savva, Senior research scientist, Quadram InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2181312023-12-03T05:47:39Z2023-12-03T05:47:39ZNine out of 10 South African criminals reoffend, while in Finland it’s 1 in 3. This is why<p><em>A very large percentage of South Africans who are released from prison end up being rearrested and being convicted for crimes again. The country has one of the highest recidivism rates <a href="https://www.702.co.za/podcasts/269/tonight-with-lester-kiewit/279121/nicro-the-high-rate-ofoffender-recidivism">in the world</a>. Criminologist Casper Lӧtter sets out his findings in <a href="https://unisapressjournals.co.za/index.php/Phronimon/article/view/13232">a recent paper</a> on what can be learnt from Finland’s experience in reducing this trend.</em></p>
<h2>What’s the difference between the two countries’ approaches?</h2>
<p>About 9 out of 10 ex-offenders reoffend in South Africa. Expressed as a percentage of 90% of the prison population of roughly 260,000 at any one point in time, this is one of the highest and most unsustainable in the world. </p>
<p>The US has a rate of recidivism of around <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20439062?origin=crossref">67%</a> while <a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-control-what-south-africa-can-learn-from-china-169269">China</a>, an authoritarian country where mass executions of recidivists are the norm, has a rate between 6% and 8%. </p>
<p>In Finland, a liberal democracy, the rate is a very acceptable 31%.</p>
<p>The primary cause of reoffending in South Africa appears to be the state’s unwillingness or inability to clear up areas of conflict in society which either breed criminality or fuel reoffending. Examples of these are <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-wont-become-less-violent-until-its-more-equal-103116">inequality</a> (a breeding ground for violent crimes), poverty in an otherwise affluent society, chronic unemployment and government <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/hi/sam/the-sage-handbook-of-criminological-theory/book228876">practices</a> that marginalise and stigmatise people. </p>
<p>Not only has the state failed to keep citizens safe from preventable crime and harm, but politicians have also used the issue to campaign on a “tough on crime” ticket.</p>
<p>South Africa also has a harsh <a href="https://theconversation.com/ex-offenders-should-be-made-prison-wardens-in-south-africa-heres-why-162316">stigmatising</a> shaming culture, as opposed to an integrative shaming culture, when it comes to people convicted of crimes. In a <a href="https://theconversation.com/crime-control-what-south-africa-can-learn-from-china-169269">stigmatising</a> shaming culture, ex-offenders often experience discrimination and ostracisation. This drives them away from mainstream culture and its values and towards criminal subcultures. The US has a similar culture. </p>
<p>In an integrative shaming culture, ex-offenders are encouraged to reintegrate into society. They are provided with employment and other opportunities to ease their transition into mainstream society. China and Japan are examples of this. </p>
<p>This approach is also widespread in African cultures, such as those found in Mali, Kenya and even Nigeria. The reason for this? In most African countries with a history of colonialism, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2637640">a connection</a> has been established between imprisonment and slavery. </p>
<p>Significantly, the leading Australian comparative criminologist John <a href="http://johnbraithwaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/1999_Crime-Shame-and-Reintegratio.pdf">Braithwaite</a> has argued that stigma is “counter-productive” and fuels reoffending.</p>
<p>Though recidivism (reoffending) is a significant problem in criminology, there are no easy answers on how to fix it. The problem is both complex and nuanced.</p>
<h2>Alternative approaches</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://unisapressjournals.co.za/index.php/Phronimon/article/view/13232">recent paper</a>, I looked at alternatives.</p>
<p>For example, Finland has a hybrid culture. It has a stigmatising shaming culture that is heavily influenced by integrative shaming features. A well-known Chinese proverb proclaims that nuance is everything. These characteristics are evident in the Finnish prison setting as well as the post-incarceration environment. </p>
<p>Strenuous efforts are made to provide ex-offenders with employment opportunities or financial assistance after their release from prison. </p>
<p>And offenders’ concerns are attended to during incarceration. <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/sacq/article/view/239477">Prison protests</a>, such as hunger strikes, are unheard of in Finnish prisons. In South Africa they are common.</p>
<p>But the most glaring characteristic of the Finnish system is an admirable rate of recidivism of about 31% (with deincarceration at 53 individuals imprisoned per 100,000 in the national general population). Deincarceration is the result of efforts to limit recourse to imprisonment as much as possible. In <a href="https://www.702.co.za/podcasts/269/tonight-with-lester-kiewit/279121/nicro-the-high-rate-ofoffender-recidivism">South Africa</a> the rate of recidivism (reoffending) is between 86% and 94%. </p>
<p>So, even though South Africa’s rate of incarceration (the number of convicted criminals who go to prison) is almost five times higher than that of Finland, Finland has only one third of South Africa’s reoffending rate. The question is why, since both these countries exhibit stigmatising shaming cultures.</p>
<p>In my research I identified specific features within the Finnish system that makes it a good model for the South African Department of Correctional Services to follow. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Punishment as a mere loss of liberty. Other features of incarceration, such as <a href="https://perjournal.co.za/article/view/12743">torture</a>, forfeiture of privileges (such as family visits), degrading or insulting treatment and solitary confinement are not evident in the Finnish system. All of these are evident in South Africa. </p></li>
<li><p>Reintegration into society. Offenders are provided, as far as possible, with employment opportunities and other measures to help them return to mainstream society. This helps them survive in a harsh stigmatising shaming culture. </p></li>
<li><p>Promotion of normal humane conditions in the prison environment. Prisons in Finland are not surrounded by barbed wire, and prison wardens are dressed in normal civilian clothing. Everything possible is done to normalise the prison environment.</p></li>
<li><p>Just and respectful treatment of prisoners, upholding their human dignity. Research <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781843926030-5/harm-contemporary-prison-john-irwin-barbara-owen">has shown</a> that treating offenders in humiliating ways damages their sense of self and complicates their integration into society.</p></li>
<li><p>Responsiveness to offenders’ concerns. Understanding their problems allows them to feel they are part of the system and breaks down their resistance to cooperation with authorities. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What lessons can be learnt</h2>
<p>My research shows that South Africa could benefit from Finland’s approach.</p>
<p>South African academic <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/Conflict_Management_for_South_African_St.html?id=aie7YgEACAAJ&redir_esc=y">Gavin Bradshaw</a>, an expert on deep-rooted societal conflict as well as social cohesion, notes that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most recent research work on negotiation also supports the fact that integrative approaches are usually far more effective {than power bargaining}.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Recognition of the formerly incarcerated’s basic human needs, as Bradshaw indicates, is bound to have a significant impact on South Africa’s
rates of recidivism. </p>
<p>I found that Finland’s great achievement is a result of recognising the basic human needs of offenders and ex-offenders, thereby eliminating this primary source of human conflict. Those needs include employment, where possible, basic accommodation, dignity, and responsiveness to their concerns.</p>
<p>In a country where 9 out of every 10 offenders reoffend, it is perhaps time to reevaluate <a href="https://mg.co.za/thoughtleader/opinion/2023-03-25-is-the-idea-of-rehabilitation-redundant-in-south-africa/">the rehabilitation paradigm</a>. Finland’s experience shows the value of applying sensible conflict transformation perspectives in the management of crime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Casper Lӧtter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Finland’s experience shows the value of applying sensible conflict transformation perspectives in the management of crime.Casper Lӧtter, Research fellow, North-West UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155652023-10-12T17:09:52Z2023-10-12T17:09:52ZUkraine recap: what war in the Middle East means for Putin and Ukraine<p>For some people it was a week when they forgot that the Ukraine war was happening. </p>
<p>As news from the Middle East took up longer and longer slots on news programmes and websites, reports from Ukraine were pushed off the front pages, at least for now. </p>
<p>But as Robert Dover, professor of intelligence and national security at the University of Hull, explains, any reduction <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-gaza-conflict-an-opportunity-for-putin-while-the-world-is-distracted-215479">in the world’s attention</a> on the Ukraine war could be an significant opportunity for President Vladimir Putin. It could easily distract the west and undermine its commitment to financial and military support for Ukraine, he argues. </p>
<p>This could open up time for Russia to regroup, slow the number of battlefield deaths and prolong the conflict. It could also divert military equipment to the Middle East. A longer war is generally seen as being in Russia’s favour as the commitment of allies is potentiallworn away by national political opposition, and worries about cost, potentially.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-gaza-conflict-an-opportunity-for-putin-while-the-world-is-distracted-215479">Israel-Gaza conflict: an opportunity for Putin while the world is distracted</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, on the Baltic coast, a gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland has been hit by an explosion, and nobody is quite sure what or who is behind it. But since both countries are Nato members, and there’s a possibility that it could be an attack by Russia, the incident is coming under intense scrutiny. </p>
<p>Supplies of gas and energy, of course, have become a hugely political issue since the beginning of the war, when European countries realised their overdependence on Russia and suddenly had to make alternative arrangements at speed or risk no heating through the winter. </p>
<p>Thomas Froehlich, a research fellow at King’s College London, who studies the geopolitics of energy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/estonia-finland-pipeline-explosion-whats-the-evidence-that-the-damage-was-deliberate-215480">talks us through</a> the importance of a thorough investigation into the damaged pipeline and why Europe needs to diversify and protect its energy sources.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/estonia-finland-pipeline-explosion-whats-the-evidence-that-the-damage-was-deliberate-215480">Estonia-Finland pipeline explosion: what's the evidence that the damage was deliberate?</a>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510322/original/file-20230215-22-dna0kj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Since Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine on February 24 2022, The Conversation has called upon some of the leading experts in international security, geopolitics and military tactics to help our readers <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/ukraine-12-months-at-war-134215?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">understand the big issues</a>. You can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">subscribe to our fortnightly recap</a> of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.</em></p>
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<p>Away from the frontlines, Russians are queueing up to see the latest Hollywood blockbuster Barbie, despite the government suggesting the film does not uphold “Russian values”. No one knows exactly what punters’ motivation might be, a dash of escapism, a desire to see the latest global movie hit, or as a small act of defiance. </p>
<p>Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at King’s College London, studies the power of information and how information is used during conflicts. She points out that the Kremlin likes <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-pink-how-barbies-popularity-is-pushing-back-against-kremlin-control-of-information-214673">to keep a tight grip</a> on what is said and viewed. After all, this is a country where people are not currently allowed to call the “special military operation” in Ukraine a war and journalists can face up to 15 years in prison for publishing “false” information.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-pink-how-barbies-popularity-is-pushing-back-against-kremlin-control-of-information-214673">The power of pink: how Barbie's popularity is pushing back against Kremlin control of information</a>
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<p>The overuse of the word “tragedy” is <a href="https://theconversation.com/calling-the-war-in-ukraine-a-tragedy-shelters-its-perpetrators-from-blame-and-responsibility-212080">letting Russia off the hook</a>, argues Mariana Budjeryn, a research associate, at the Harvard Kennedy School. The word “tragedy” is used far too often and it suggests that is something that is out of anyone’s control. </p>
<p>If you look at the roots of the word tragedy in its deeper original sense, it implies inadvertence and inevitability, she explains. And therefore masks the responsibility of perpetrators in causing injustices and human suffering through malicious intent and deliberate wrongdoing. </p>
<p>The word that should be used more often, she suggests, is crime. Russia is breaking international law, and therefore should be called to account, and calling what is happening in Ukraine a tragedy is not the way to do it.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/calling-the-war-in-ukraine-a-tragedy-shelters-its-perpetrators-from-blame-and-responsibility-212080">Calling the war in Ukraine a 'tragedy' shelters its perpetrators from blame and responsibility</a>
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<p>When people flee from their homelands they often cling to the few possessions they are able to take with them. There are incredibly poignant images of Ukrainian families holding on to a teddy bear or a favourite book as they jostled for spaces on trains leaving the country as war broke out. </p>
<p>But Ukrainians living away from their homes in foreign lands are choosing another way to commemorate and remember their home, by getting tattoos of Ukrainian symbols or words inscribed on their bodies. Our French edition <a href="https://theconversation.com/vivre-lukraine-en-exil-son-heritage-culturel-dans-la-peau-213587">recently published</a> an article looking at the Ukrainian diaspora in Portugal, and how tattoos are growing in popularity as a mark of resistance against Russian occupation, according to Amandine Desille, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Lisbonne and an associate member at the University of Bordeaux.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vivre-lukraine-en-exil-son-heritage-culturel-dans-la-peau-213587">Vivre l’Ukraine en exil, son héritage culturel dans la peau</a>
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<p>And finally for an update on how The Conversation has been covering the Israel-Gaza conflict from all its bureaux around the world, <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-war-updates-on-the-conversations-coverage-of-the-conflict-215285">here’s a round-up</a> of coverage, compiled by global editor Stephen Khan.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-war-updates-on-the-conversations-coverage-of-the-conflict-215285">Israel-Hamas war: updates on The Conversation's coverage of the conflict</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215565/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of the best of our coverage of the conflict from the past fortnight.Rachael Jolley, International Affairs EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154802023-10-12T15:12:25Z2023-10-12T15:12:25ZEstonia-Finland pipeline explosion: what’s the evidence that the damage was deliberate?<p>Finland’s president, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/finnish-government-hold-news-conference-suspected-pipeline-leak-media-2023-10-10/">Sauli Niinistö, has alluded to “outside activity”</a> and said sabotage is likely to be the cause of damage to an important gas pipeline that links it to Estonia.</p>
<p>The pipeline <a href="https://gasgrid.fi/en/2023/10/08/suspicion-of-a-leak-in-the-balticconnector-gas-pipeline-between-finland-and-estonia/">suffered a leak in Finnish waters</a> on October 8, caused by an explosion, and has subsequently been shut down. A nearby telecommunications connection in <a href="https://observatorial.com/news/economy/536135/elisa-cable-damage-has-practically-no-effects-in-finland/">Estonian waters was also damaged</a>. It is so far unclear whether this was caused by the same or additional explosions.</p>
<p>Reports show that pressure dropped in the pipeline and <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2497905-norsar-detects-explosive-signal-near-balticconnector">seismic sensors detected at least one explosion</a>. Nato has promised to act if the pipeline has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/nato-vows-to-respond-if-finland-estonia-gas-pipeline-damage-is-deliberate">attacked</a>. Concerns are being raised about Russia’s possible involvement, although it is denying any role.</p>
<p>Some analysts say the cause of the damage is not clear. Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo gave a careful statement emphasising that: <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/finland-pipeline-leak-likely-caused-by-external-activity/a-67058017">“It is too early to draw conclusions on who or what caused the damage.”</a></p>
<p>Just as with the sabotage on the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-kremlin-russia-who-blew-up-nord-stream-2/">Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe in 2022</a>, the possible attack is difficult to attribute. The Kremlin has <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nato-oil-pipeline-leak-russia-sabotage-1833802">pushed back against claims of Russian involvement</a> in Nord Stream, blaming it on other countries. </p>
<p>In any case, the Estonia-Finland pipeline is unlikely to go back online <a href="https://www.energate-messenger.de/news/237180/baltic-connector-nicht-vor-april-zurueck">until April next year</a>, according to operator Gasgrid Finland.</p>
<h2>Why is the pipeline important?</h2>
<p>The EU financed 75% of <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/news/balticconnector-gas-pipeline-and-running-1-january-2020-2020-01-08_en">the project’s total cost</a> of around €300 million (£258m). Finnish state-owned operator Gasgrid and Estonian operator Elering financed the remaining 25% of the pipeline, which has a <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-01/pci_factsheet_balticonnector_2017_0_0.pdf">capacity of 2.6 billion cubic meters per year</a>.</p>
<p>Planning began in 2007, and the pipeline became operational in 2020. It is Finland’s only connection to the EU domestic gas market, via the <a href="https://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/pipelines/article/14276216/polandlithuania-interconnector-gas-pipeline-commissioned">Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania (GIPL)</a> pipeline system.</p>
<p>The Estonia-Finland pipeline is capable of bi-directional flow, which means that depending on current demand and available supply, gas can be transported from Finland to Estonia or vice versa.</p>
<p>The pipeline’s closure should not affect Finnish energy supply security. Although it <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/022520-estonia-finland-gas-link-not-seen-in-reverse-mode-in-2020-official">supplies about a third of Finland’s overall gas use</a>, only 5% of Finnish energy supply stems from gas. While <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61524933">Russia stopped gas exports to Finland</a> as a reaction to the country’s Nato application in 2022, Finland can receive liquefied natural gas (LNG) via its <a href="https://gasgrid.fi/en/2023/01/16/gasgrid-finlands-lng-floating-terminal-is-now-ready-for-gas-deliveries/">floating LNG terminal in Inkoo</a>, which has a capacity exceeding Finland’s total gas demand.</p>
<p>The importance for Estonian energy supply security is more relevant, as <a href="https://www.conexus.lv/physical-flows?custom_punkti0%5B%5D=21Z0000000004952&pa_dienam=0&date_from=2022-11-01&date_to=2023-10-11&custom_submit=Generate+report">flow had been reversed in 2023 to deliver LNG</a> to Estonia at a rate of 30 GWh/day, which equals between 15 and 18% of Estonia’s daily energy consumption. However, Estonia can also rely on the Klaipėda LNG terminal in Lithuania.</p>
<h2>What are the risks involved?</h2>
<p>Given these numbers, the risk to energy supply security in Finland and Estonia is low. But the damaged pipeline might increase <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-gas-prices-mostly-fall-091409202.html">gas price volatility in Europe</a>, which in turn could lead to further strengthening of right-wing populist parties who have <a href="https://cepa.org/article/polands-far-right-advances-on-anti-ukraine-sentiment/">campaigned against supporting Ukraine</a>, and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/how-viktor-orban-broke-the-eu-and-got-away-with-it-hungary-rule-of-law/">aim to weaken European institutions</a> by building concern about the increasing cost of living.</p>
<p>If evidence of sabotage can be found, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm">Nato’s Article 5</a> – the basis for the alliance’s collective defence mechanism – would mean an attack on any member would be considered an attack on all. Estonia has been a <a href="https://icds.ee/en/estonias-long-road-to-nato/">Nato member since 2003</a> and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">Finland recently joined the alliance</a> in the wake of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.</p>
<p>Since the flow of the pipeline had only recently been reversed to deliver gas from Finland to Estonia, a deliberate attack on this piece of critical infrastructure – if proven – must certainly be <a href="https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/baltic-states-targets-and-levers-role-region-russian-strategy-0">interpreted as a threat to the Baltic states</a>.</p>
<h2>What needs to be done now?</h2>
<p>In a tense geopolitical environment amid <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/warstudies/assets/war-in-ukraine-one-year-on.pdf">Russia’s war against Ukraine</a>, competition between the US and China <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rethinking-us-china-competition-next-generation-perspectives/">in the Pacific</a>, and new conflict in the Middle East after <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/israel-and-palestinians-new-kind-conflict">Hamas’s attacks on Israel</a>, a thorough investigation of the incident is necessary before jumping to any conclusions.</p>
<p>Rhetorical escalation might <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg614af.9">lead to increased conflict</a>, so it’s important to note that an accident has not been fully ruled out. Estonia’s navy commander Jüri Saska said the damage appears like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/heavy-force-damaged-baltic-sea-gas-pipeline-estonia-says-2023-10-11/">“someone tore it on the side”</a>, which could refer to a mechanical impact by a passing vessel.</p>
<p>In any case, it is important to <a href="https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1017803">increase security around other critical infrastructure</a>. If this constitutes an act of sabotage, <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3187.html">deterrence has clearly failed</a>. A strong and coordinated effort needs to be made to substantially increase surveillance capacity for critical infrastructure – ideally on a pan-European level.</p>
<p>To minimise future disruptions to energy infrastructure, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222010003">further diversification of the EU’s energy supply</a> would be a useful step. Expanding <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-s-growth-is-being-turbocharged-as-countries-seek-to-strengthen-energy-security">solar capacity for domestic use</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148121005942">geothermal sources for industrial applications</a> offers a route to increased supply security.</p>
<p>Even though it has not been proven that the damage to the pipeline was caused by sabotage, or indeed Russia, it is crucial for Europe to not back down on support for Ukraine, as this would be <a href="https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/09/20/how-russia-and-ukraine-interpret-and-signal-information-will-determine-the-course-of-the-war">interpreted as a sign of weakness by Moscow</a>. As the US is currently putting more efforts into <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/91790e91-3a5d-4369-a475-4a2f417f2a66">deterring Iran from intervening</a> in the newly resurfaced Middle Eastern conflict, the onus is on the EU to support Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression.</p>
<p>While it is unclear at this point what or who led to the damage of the pipeline, calm communications during the investigation must be a priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215480/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Froehlich received funding from ESRC. He is affiliated with the German Social Democratic Party (SPD). </span></em></p>Nato has promised to act if the pipeline has been attacked, but a thorough investigation is needed before jumping to any conclusions.Thomas Froehlich, Research Fellow, Department of War Studies, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137312023-10-03T16:34:50Z2023-10-03T16:34:50ZMicroplastics in the mud: Finnish lake sediments help us get to the bottom of plastic pollution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551737/original/file-20231003-25-ks87tq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers on the frozen surface of Lake Kallavesi prepare to take a sample of the sediment down below. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Timo Saarinen</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The sun is shining, and air feels surprisingly warm when we walk on a 35cm ice that covers a frozen lake in central Finland. The heavy sledges move nicely, because there is not much snow on the ice today. The journey isn’t far either, as we’re by the city of Kuopio, which is surrounded by Finland’s 10th largest lake. Despite the temperature of -10˚, I need to take off my hat – the sun in early March is already warm, or it could be the fact that the heavy sledge is following me obediently.</p>
<p>We’re crossing the icy bay not for sport or holiday activities, nor is it part of a plan to hike to north Pole. Instead, our focus is in research. We are determinedly walking to the middle of the bay to collect a sediment core from its bottom. Mud – or sediments, as geologists call them – are deposited slowly at the bottom of lakes. How quickly mud accumulates varies greatly depending on the body of water, but at this bay in Lake Kallavesi, about 1 centimetre of sediment is deposited annually. Logically, the new sediment is deposited on top of earlier layers, and so sediments are like time machines – the deeper you dig into the older sediments, the further you reach into the past. You can think of sediments like libraries of a lake’s untold stories, and if you can read the words of the sediment core, they can tell amazing stories.</p>
<p>Lake Kallavesi has a specific and rare type of sediments called annually laminated or <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-1-4020-4411-3_226">varved sediments</a>. They’re composed of a bright and dark couplets one after the other, just like tree rings, that can be counted backwards. It is possible to check how your birth year looked – or your grandmother’s birth year. Such sediment layers can reach back thousands of years.</p>
<h2>The history of plastic, buried in the mud</h2>
<p>Our historical destination this time is much more recent – we want to investigate the presence of plastic particles within the natural sediment. It’s a continuation of our ongoing research, most recently published in the <em>Journal of Soils and Sediments</em> in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11368-023-03465-3">February 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Widespread use of plastic started about 70 years ago, and since then, 9 billion metric tonnes has been produced. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1700782">Only 12% is incinerated</a>, meaning that 7.5 billion metric tonnes are still with us somewhere – recycled and in use; in landfills or dump pits, or in nature, including our waters. The weight of all that plastic is more than that of all the people on the planet – there’s about 1,000 kg of plastic for each of us, mostly in form of waste. What would you do with your share? What would I do?</p>
<p>These are my thoughts when I am drilling a hole in the ice. It would be nice to work on lake on a sunny summer day, but the thick ice serves as a stable platform. It allows us to spread all our corers, saws, sledges, tubes, wires, and hot water pots around us. We use metal rods to push the core tubes down 11 metres to the lake floor and then into the sediment. A few minutes later, we lift the core tube out on the water. It was known that the bay is polluted, but we’re surprised by the strong smell of oil when the core emerges.</p>
<p>Because plastic is very durable material, it works well as a core tube. This benefit is also plastic’s worst aspect: released into the environment, it doesn’t decompose but breaks into ever smaller pieces. <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/microplastics.html">Particles smaller than 5 mm are called microplastics</a>, and they have only been studied since 2004, after Richard Thompson <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1094559">accidently noted their presence</a> in coastal sediments near Plymouth, England. While it’s a relatively new research field, we already know that microplastics are harmful pollutants that endanger animal life – including our own – and that they are found everywhere from the top of the Himalayas to the deepest oceans.</p>
<p>Like natural particles, microplastics are transported to the lakes by rivers, rainfall, and wind. They can float in the surface but finally sink to the bottom. There they will be slowly buried under new layers of sediments. But how much microplastics has increased in the nature since the last 70 years? Let’s go to see what the sediment library can tell us.</p>
<h2>The ABCs of reading sediment layers</h2>
<p>The 2-meter sediment core lies on the metallic table at our laboratory. As we saw open the core, my skin gets goosebumps. It might be the noise or maybe it is just excitement – after all, you never know beforehand what the sediment will look like.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551740/original/file-20231003-15-ga6eip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The core of the lake sediment reveals brighter and darker bands that allow us to look back into time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sediments consist of natural materials as well as pollutants. Detrital materials such as clay, silt and sand are washed into the lake by spring floods that follow the melting of snow – this is the bright layer in Lake Kallavesi sediment. The thicker the bright layer is, the more intensive the spring flood and higher the snow was during the winter.</p>
<p>There is also a lot of organic matter in the sediments – not only plants transported by the rivers and pollen flown in from long distances, but also algae. On sunny summer days, they bloom on the lake’s surface and so serve as a buffet for the zooplankton that graze on the surface. When these microscopic organisms die, they too sink to bottom and become part of the mud.</p>
<p>Sediments also bear witness to human activities. Building a bridge or a road involves digging and can increase erosion, and our sediment shows bright layers that can be several centimetres thick. A significant number of pollutants are buried within the sediments – we found trace metals such as mercury, copper, lead and zinc as well as <a href="https://wwwn.cdc.gov/TSP/ToxFAQs/ToxFAQsDetails.aspx?faqid=423&toxid=75">petroleum hydrocarbon fractions</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PAHs_FactSheet.html">PAH compounds</a> that are ecologically risky and potentially dangerous to health. Many are related to burning of fossil fuels. In addition to this chemical cocktail, the sediments were flavoured by a large amounts of microplastics.</p>
<p>Occasionally I get the feeling that I never went too far from my childhood. Playing with water and mud was the greatest thing I could imagine for the summer holidays, and nowadays I keep on doing very similar activities – collect mud, treat it in different ways, put it in all kinds of cups and machines. I often come home with my clothes splashed with mud. Today, however, I’m planning my playing in more detail, having spent weeks in the laboratory preparing these sediments for analysis.</p>
<h2>Two steps forward, one steps back</h2>
<p>The preliminary results show that the amount of heavy metals and oil fractions have decreased significantly from the peak in the 1970s toward the present day. This is good news, because it tells us that we’ve come to understand the harmfulness of these chemicals and our actions to preserve nature have paid off. Unfortunately, that’s not the case for microplastics – their presence in the sediments is increasing over time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close-up view of microplastic particles" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551742/original/file-20231003-21-d0cx0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A magnified view of lake sediments reveals an immense number of microplastic particles. Many are from single-use plastics that find their way into the environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The materials most frequently found are polyethylene, polypropylene and polystyrene, often employed for so-called single-use products such as packaging. In the annual layers we can immediately find the years 2011-2013, when there was significant construction work and dredging in the harbour. During this period, a huge number of microplastics are present with a large diversity of types.</p>
<p>With such detailed information, we start to understand how human activities on the land have a direct influence on the microplastics in the water. In the future, we want to understand how all kinds of pollutants that are already in the nature can be attached to microplastic particles, and what when such particles are eaten by plankton and animals that graze on the bottom of lakes. There is still much we do not understand from microplastics and the risks they pose, but our knowledge increases with every sediment core. It is not piece of cake, but a mud cake.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310261/original/file-20200115-134768-1tax26b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects around the world conducted by researchers in 38 countries. To learn more, visit the site of the Axa Research Fund or follow on Twitter @AXAResearchFund.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saija Saarni a reçu des financements de AXA Research Fund. </span></em></p>Since the 1950s, billions of tons of plastic have been produced and much of it ends up in the environment – even at the bottom of lakes in Finland.Saija Saarni, Senior research in geology, University of TurkuLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112162023-08-14T13:55:52Z2023-08-14T13:55:52ZThe Summer Book, Tove Jansson’s novel about love, family and nature, will make you nostalgic for your own childhood<p>A short novel of rare beauty, <a href="https://tovejansson.com/">Tove Jansson’s</a> <a href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-summer-book/tove-jansson/9780954221713">The Summer Book</a> (1972) tells the story of Sophia, a six-year-old girl spending the summer with her grandmother on a remote island in the Gulf of Finland. </p>
<p>Jansson is best known for the <a href="https://www.moomin.com/en/tove-jansson/">Moomins</a>, the small hippo-like creatures she started drawing in her youth, and which later made her famous around the world. But she was also a remarkably prolific artist, who explored satirical illustration, painting, children’s literature and novels. </p>
<p>Finnish-born and Swedish-speaking, her writing sits comfortably within two major traditions of Scandinavian literature: one of imaginative children’s writers, from <a href="https://andersen.sdu.dk/liv/index_e.html">Hans Christian Andersen</a> to <a href="https://www.astridlindgren.com/">Astrid Lindgren</a>, and the other of fierce women writers that included <a href="https://blixen.dk/en/karen-blixen">Karen Blixen</a> (of <a href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/out-of-africa/isak-dinesen/9780141183336">Out of Africa</a> fame) and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/1909/lagerlof/biographical/">Selma Lagerlöf</a>, who won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1909. </p>
<p>Born into an artistic household – her father Viktor was an artist and her mother Ham an illustrator – Jansson and her brother Lasse grew up during the <a href="https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/finnish_civil_war_1918">Finnish civil war</a> and spent most of their youth in the wake of the second world war. Art became Jansson’s escapism and also a way to voice her political dissent.</p>
<p>She published satirical cartoons in various newspapers, and eventually her first Moomins story, <a href="https://shop.moomin.com/products/the-moomins-and-the-great-flood-sort-of-books">The Moomins and the Great Flood</a>, in 1945. If dreaming up Moomin adventures helped her during and after the war, writing The Summer Book helped work through the grief of losing her mother on whom the grandmother character is based. </p>
<p>The little girl is based on Jansson’s niece, Sophia, and the girl’s father on her brother, Lasse. The house on the island was inspired by the Jansson family summer house on a little rocky outcrop called Klovharun.</p>
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<h2>Making the everyday magic again</h2>
<p>There is no better time than the end of summer to read this book. It will remind you of your own childhood summers, of that languid feeling of being a little bored and coming up with improbable games and pondering unanswerable questions like, “Are there ants in heaven?” or learning why you should never step on moss.</p>
<p>While it came partly from a place of grief and darkness, The Summer Book is an incredibly luminous book, a dynamic that is mirrored in Grandmother’s inevitable physical decline and Sophia’s buoyant growth. The descriptions are so vivid that you can almost smell the salty, cold beaches, picture the sunburned freckly noses and long for the endlessly bright evenings.</p>
<p>Most of all, it is a book about love and the importance of family bonds. The delicate relationship between Sophia and her grandmother is one of the most truthful descriptions of inter-generational relationships ever written. Very few authors are able to capture the depth of a child’s emotional world as well as Tove Jansson. The Summer Book is never sentimental and yet it is filled with love, wisdom and humour.</p>
<p>Nothing really happens and yet everything does. Every small adventure, from learning to gain the love of a shifty cat, to trying to plant new flowers on the island, becomes a metaphor for life itself. </p>
<h2>The case for playing</h2>
<p>The natural landscape of the tiny island is not just the backdrop to this precious novel, it also an important character itself. It is loud with the neverending wind, volatile with unexpected storms, and resilient like the moss and flowers that carpet the ground. The island is a small self-sufficient female universe, ruled by Sophia and Grandmother.</p>
<p>Sophia’s father, Papa, is there in the background, as reassuringly present as the landscape itself, yet silent. The dialogue is only between Sophia and Grandmother, occasional visitors and sometimes God. “Dear God, let something happen,” Sophia prays. “God, if You love me. I’m bored to death. Amen.” </p>
<p>Life on the island is a reminder of a simpler life that wasn’t simple at all. It is not described as an idyllic retreat from urban life – there is no electricity, the weather is temperamental, the sea can be deadly – and yet The Summer Book will leave you yearning for the chance to live a slower-paced, more deliberate, self-reliant life.</p>
<p>The coexistence of humanity and nature is one of the recurring themes in Jansson’s art, and on her island the two are in harmony. And if you are looking for yet another takeaway from this book, it must be this: to be inspired to live life as Sophia and Grandmother do on the island, with profound respect for their surroundings, and a joyous will to play – no matter what age you are.</p>
<p>And what better time to be reminded of this than when the sun is shining, the days are longer and the living is easier? For me, this book took me back to my own childhood and summers spent with my Danish family in a summerhouse not so different from Sophia and Grandmother’s.</p>
<p>With wild winds, unforgiving downpours and a brutally cold sea, time spent on the beach could be challenging. In response to my own (frequent) moaning, my grandmother, with the same unsentimental affection as Sophia’s, would shush me by saying: “Life is not easy, but it’s very interesting.”</p>
<p>And this is why we read books like The Summer Book. To remind ourselves of who we used to be, and of who we want to become. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Tesio-Ryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now is the perfect time to read Jansson’s novel – a book that will make you nostalgic for childhood summers.Barbara Tesio-Ryan, Information Services Supervisor, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2096652023-07-13T13:09:08Z2023-07-13T13:09:08Z3 takeaways from the NATO summit – and where it leaves the military alliance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537176/original/file-20230712-20641-prm6on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C47%2C3185%2C2079&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy take to the stage.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NATOSummitBiden/cb891a9717f64b1ab201bde86fefcec8/photo?Query=nato&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=35514&currentItemNo=73">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The leaders of the 31 nations that comprise NATO made their way home on July 12, 2023, after concluding <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nato-summit-vilnius-lithuania-ukraine-6eff9f614dd01746280e43f0473b1a26">two days of highest-level diplomatic meetings</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius wasn’t just all talk – it provided an opportunity for the Western military alliance to reassess its purpose, size and structure in light of more than a year of war in Ukraine.</em></p>
<p><em>John R. Deni, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SKtbkskAAAAJ&hl=en">research professor</a> at the U.S. Army War College and author of “<a href="https://librarycatalog.ecu.edu/catalog/4809141">NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense</a>,” was in Vilnius to attend a public forum on the side of the summit. The Conversation asked him for his main takeaways form the leaders’ meeting and what it suggests about the future of NATO.</em></p>
<h2>Ukraine gets some of what it wants</h2>
<p>The headlines from the summit were largely about what Ukraine really wanted – a clearly defined timeline to membership – and how <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183066">NATO members fell short</a> on promising that.</p>
<p>But I think that downplays what <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-offer-ukraine-security-framework-zelenskiy-asks-nato-allies-more-arms-2023-07-12/">Ukraine did achieve</a>. Germany, France and Norway pledged a significant increase in aid to Kyiv in the shape of tanks, long-range missiles and other military assistance that should be useful in Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive against Russia. Ukraine also secured further commitments to nonlethal assistance and training from NATO members.</p>
<p>And even on the issue of membership, there was progress that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can take back to Kyiv. NATO members confirmed their commitment that Ukraine would become a member at some point and agreed to <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nato-agrees-to-remove-membership-action-plan-requirement-for-kyiv-s-membership-ukraine/2941486">dispense with the the requirement of a memberhsip action plan</a>. The alliance similarly waived the membership action plan during Finland’s and Sweden’s bids, putting Ukraine in a select group of favored nations.</p>
<p>The summit also saw the first meeting of the <a href="https://time.com/6293378/nato-ukraine-council/">newly formed NATO-Ukraine Council</a> – a body formed to further signal NATO’s commitment to Ukraine membership.</p>
<p>Of course, this still fell short of Zelenskyy’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/nato-stops-short-of-ukraine-invitation-angering-zelenskyy">hopes of an “invite</a>” to NATO, or assurances that Ukraine would be accepted as a member as soon as the war is over.</p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/07/11/ukraine-russia-live-war-updates/70401625007/">frustration on display</a> by Zelenskyy ahead of the meeting – and which I witnessed among some delegates at the public forum – appeared to dissipate during the summit itself. </p>
<p>In my view, Zelenskyy achieved all he could during the summit. Ukraine was embraced by NATO publicly and given clear shows of support and bilateral assistance from key members of the alliance. And that shouldn’t be overshadowed by some of the noises of disappointment or talk of Ukraine <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/urging-gratitude-weapons-uk-defence-minister-tells-ukraine-were-not-amazon-2023-07-12/">not showing enough “gratitude</a>” toward NATO members.</p>
<h2>Stronger with Sweden after Turkey relents</h2>
<p>Perhaps one of the biggest achievements of the summit occurred on the eve of the event itself, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/erdogan-proposes-letting-sweden-join-nato-in-exchange-for-a-path-for-turkey-to-join-the-eu">gave the green light</a> for Sweden to become NATO’s 32nd member.</p>
<p>Much like what happened with <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">Finland’s earlier successful bid</a>, Erdoğan had been holding out over what he perceived to be concerns over <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-supreme-court-approves-extradition-of-pkk-supporter-to-turkey/a-65854132">Sweden’s “harboring</a>” of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK – an organization that Turkey, among others, has labeled a terrorist group.</p>
<p>Before announcing that Ankara would no longer stand in Sweden’s way, Erdoğan had suggested that his compliance on Sweden might be conditional on the European Union’s looking favorably on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/erdogan-turkey-nato-eu-sweden-intl/index.html">Ankara’s own bid to join the economic union</a>. But it appears that was just spitballing on behalf of the Turkish president, wanting to see what additional concessions he might gain for approving Sweden’s bid. It doesn’t appear that it was a serious suggestion – and would in any case be a nonstarter, as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/10/erdogan-s-nato-sweden-blackmail-dooms-turkey-s-eu-membership/77728246-1f5c-11ee-8994-4b2d0b694a34_story.html">European Commission itself acknowledged</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrives at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LithuaniaNATOSummit/4aad3925341443d584bd65a03c0419e4/photo?Query=nato%20erdogan&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1006&currentItemNo=25">AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis</a></span>
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<p>Erdoğan’s about-face on Sweden allowed him to look magnanimous on the international stage, but it was likely rooted in domestic politics. His opposition to the Nordic states’ ascension to NATO should, I believe, be viewed in the context of a reelection bid for the long-serving Turkish leader. Polls had him lagging behind the main Turkish opposition candidate ahead of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293">May presidential vote</a>. He knew that taking a nationalist line on Sweden’s and Finland’s perceived lax attitude toward enemies of the Turkish state would play well to his base. Since he won the election, there is no real need for him to oppose NATO membership for either country.</p>
<p>The episode does raise concern that NATO could be beholden to nationalist self-interest in the future – but this is always a risk in a consensus-based organization of sovereign countries. But the counterbalance is that the alliance’s allies rarely want to be seen as being out in the cold on key issues. It was notable that a day after Erdoğan’s announcement, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/11/hungary-signals-it-is-ready-to-join-turkey-in-approving-swedens-bid-for-nato-membership">signlaled that he too</a> would now greenlight Sweden’s bid.</p>
<h2>Back to adversary-based military planning</h2>
<p>The alliance also <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">approved a pivot</a> in how it will conduct defense planning and how it views its strategic goals and objectives.</p>
<p>For the past 30 years, NATO planning has been geared around general threats rather than targeted at clear adversaries. That has now changed. The NATO <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">allies approved a new set of defense plans</a> that embody this new approach to how the alliance will protect and defend its members’ security. </p>
<p>In short, it has gone back to framing its capabilities (what it needs) and operations (where and how it deploys resources) around the idea of alliance members’ having clear adversaries.</p>
<p>This change of direction has been underway for a while. But the meeting in Vilnius provided the first opportunity for heads of states to give the new pivot their formal approval.</p>
<p>It changes the way NATO goes about its business. I wouldn’t say NATO has entirely gone back to a Cold War mentality – but it’s certainly conducting its business more like the way it did during the Cold War. </p>
<p>When it comes to who the adversaries are, the NATO summit <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm">communiqué made it clear</a>: Russia is “the most significant and direct threat to allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.” Added to this was the ongoing threat of terrorism.</p>
<p>And despite concern over the growing military threat from China, the Asian giant is not identified in the summit communiqué as a primary military threat to NATO nations. When NATO looks at the challenges facing Europe, it doesn’t see Chinese militarism as an existential threat to members. It is in the realms of cyberspace and space-based operations where it views China’s threat. At the same time, the communiqué made clear that NATO is open to engagement with China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John R. Deni is a research professor at the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and an associate fellow at the NATO Defence College. He’s the author of NATO and Article 5. The views expressed are his own.</span></em></p>As Western leaders depart a crucial summit, a NATO scholar parses what went down.John Deni, Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational Security Studies, US Army War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093742023-07-10T17:26:03Z2023-07-10T17:26:03ZWhat’s on the agenda as Biden heads to NATO summit: 5 essential reads as Western alliance talks expansion, Ukraine<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536635/original/file-20230710-12553-71np5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C16%2C5442%2C3812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flagging alliance? Far from it.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photograph-taken-on-july-10-shows-the-turkish-nato-and-news-photo/1518683648?adppopup=true">Yves Herman/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leaders of the nations comprising NATO will meet for a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/whats-table-nato-vilnius-summit-2023-07-07/">two-day summit</a> beginning on July 11, 2023.</p>
<p>The gathering in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, comes at a pivotal moment for the Western security alliance – it is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186712386/biden-is-in-europe-to-focus-on-u-s-alliances-and-nato-expansion">seeking to expand membership</a> and confront challenges ranging from the ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/ukraine-invasion-2022-117045">war in Ukraine</a> to a <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/">perceived growing military threat</a> from China.</p>
<p>No doubt NATO members will want to present a united front at the meeting. But on a number of key issues, not everyone is in agreement. Here are some of the issues likely to be discussed and debated during the leaders’ summit.</p>
<h2>1. A pathway to Ukraine membership?</h2>
<p>With war in Europe the obvious backdrop to the summit, much talk will be about Ukraine. NATO members have been aiding Kyiv individually, through the supply of arms and aid. And the military alliance has been assisting through nonlethal support, such as medical supplies and training. But, as noted by <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/gov/webber-mark.aspx">Mark Webber</a>, professor of international politics at the U.K.’s University of Birmingham, what many in Kyiv <a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-vilnius-summit-will-reflect-fresh-sense-of-purpose-over-ukraine-war-but-hard-questions-remain-over-membership-issues-208293">really want is full membership</a>: “The bigger prize for Ukraine, however, is NATO membership. That would bring the country within the collective defense provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and, in effect, extend U.S. – and U.K. – nuclear guarantees to Ukrainian territory.”</p>
<p>Webber noted that accommodating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request for “expedited” membership of the alliance will be difficult. “No one in NATO is arguing in favor of granting membership while Ukraine remains at war. Beyond that, the allies are divided.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-vilnius-summit-will-reflect-fresh-sense-of-purpose-over-ukraine-war-but-hard-questions-remain-over-membership-issues-208293">Nato: Vilnius summit will reflect fresh sense of purpose over Ukraine war – but hard questions remain over membership issues</a>
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<h2>2. What about Sweden?</h2>
<p>The NATO leaders’ summit will be the first at which the members present will include Finland, which joined in April. Fellow Nordic state Sweden is hoping to be next, perhaps even officially becoming the group’s 32nd member at the Vilnius meetup. </p>
<p>Sweden’s ascension had been held up by NATO member Turkey. Turkey’s recently reelected leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had previous blocked the bid due to what he saw as the Swedish government’s reluctance to crack down on Kurdish “terrorists” being “harbored” in Sweden. But on the eve of the Vilnius summit, it was announced that Erdoğan had agreed to forward Sweden’s bid to the Turkish parliament for ratification.</p>
<p><a href="https://ii.umich.edu/ii/people/all/r/rgsuny.html">Ronald Suny</a>, a historian at University of Michigan, noted that Erdoğan’s reluctance to allow Sweden and Finland entry represented domestic concerns – international pressure on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, fits his agenda of suppressing Kurdish rights in Turkey. But it also highlights an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-turkey-isnt-on-board-with-finland-sweden-joining-nato-and-why-that-matters-183277">underlying problem the alliance is facing</a>:</p>
<p>“NATO is supposed to be an alliance of democratic countries. Yet several of its members – notably Turkey and Hungary – have moved steadily away from liberal democracy toward ethnonational populist authoritarianism,” Suny wrote. “Finland and Sweden, on the other hand, fulfill the parameters of NATO membership more clearly than several of the alliance’s current members. As the United States proclaims that the war in Ukraine is a struggle between democracy and autocracy, Turkey’s opposition to the Nordics who have protested its drift to illiberalism are testing the unity and the ideological coherence of NATO.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-turkey-isnt-on-board-with-finland-sweden-joining-nato-and-why-that-matters-183277">Why Turkey isn't on board with Finland, Sweden joining NATO – and why that matters</a>
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<h2>3. The benefit of being a NATO member</h2>
<p>But why would Finland, Sweden, Ukraine and any other country look to join NATO? John Deni at American University School of International Service explained that Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-poland-demand-nato-act-in-event-of-russian-attack-an-expert-explains-article-4-and-5-commitments-following-missile-blast-194714">calls for collective action</a> should any member be attacked.</p>
<p>“Article 5 really is the heart and soul of the NATO alliance. It is the part of the treaty that says that if one member is attacked, then all of the other members will treat it as an attack on them all. In effect, it calls for a collective response once requested by any of the current 30 members of NATO and invoked by the entire alliance,” he wrote.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the U.S. would have to mount a military response should an ally be attacked. “Article 5 was written in such a way that it allows each ally to decide for itself the best course of action to take – there is no prescribed response once the article is invoked,” Deni added.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-poland-demand-nato-act-in-event-of-russian-attack-an-expert-explains-article-4-and-5-commitments-following-missile-blast-194714">Could Poland demand NATO act in event of Russian attack? An expert explains Article 4 and 5 commitments following missile blast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. The end of the neutral option?</h2>
<p>As Finland’s and Sweden’s desire to join NATO shows, smaller nations traditionally seen as aspiring to neutrality are, in the words of University of Michigan’s Ronald Suny, “recalculating how they fit into this renewed division of the world.”</p>
<p>Suny noted that, with Finland’s entry into NATO and the now high chance of once-neutral Sweden joining it, <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">other states are questioning</a> “the efficacy of nonalignment in a polarized world.” </p>
<p>“In its place, we have the ‘NATOfication’ of Eastern Europe – something that Putin unwittingly accelerated and which leaves Putin’s Russia with less accommodating neighbors,” Suny wrote.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">Finland, NATO and the evolving new world order – what small nations know</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. A cluster bomb controversy</h2>
<p>A last-minute area of controversy emerged as NATO leaders prepared to gather in Vilnius: cluster bombs.</p>
<p>On July 7, 2023, the Biden administration announced that it would supply Ukraine with the controversial munition, which scatters bomblets across a wide area. The problem is not all NATO countries are in agreement with the U.S. move. Germany, the U.K. and Canada – which are among the 120-plus countries that have signed an international treaty banning the use of cluster bombs – have all already expressed their misgivings.</p>
<p>Robert Goldman, a laws of war expert at American University, explained that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-legal-reason-the-us-cant-supply-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-but-that-doesnt-make-biden-decision-to-do-so-morally-right-207717">White House had previously shown hesitancy</a> over selling cluster bombs to Ukraine in part because of the “optics” and over concerns that “it may introducing a wedge between the U.S. and other NATO countries.”</p>
<p>Goldman explained that there is no law preventing the U.S. from providing cluster bombs to the Ukraine or any other country. “Nonetheless, providing Ukraine with cluster weapons could serve to destigmatize them and runs counter to international efforts to end their use. And that, in turn, could encourage – or excuse – their use by other states that may be less responsible,” he argued.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-legal-reason-the-us-cant-supply-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-but-that-doesnt-justify-bidens-decision-to-do-so-207717">There is no legal reason the US can’t supply cluster bombs to Ukraine – but that doesn’t justify Biden's decision to do so</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article was updated on July 10, 2023 in light of Turkey agreeing to forward Sweden’s NATO bid for ratification.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Leaders of the Western military alliance meet in Lithuania with the ongoing war in Ukraine as a backdrop.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082932023-07-04T16:32:53Z2023-07-04T16:32:53ZNato: Vilnius summit will reflect fresh sense of purpose over Ukraine war – but hard questions remain over membership issues<p>The US president, Joe Biden, struck a bullish note during a recent meeting at the White House with Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-ap-nato-ukraine-jens-stoltenberg-b2368079.html">declaring</a>: “The allies have never been more united.” </p>
<hr>
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<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has certainly given Nato a fresh sense of purpose and momentum. Its credibility <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/26/nato-was-a-political-failure-in-afghanistan-says-defence-secretary">severely dented</a> by the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan in 2021, Nato has returned to what it is good at: the collective defence of Europe. </p>
<p>The 2022 Madrid summit agreed to a new <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf">Strategic Concept</a> that gave priority to deterrence and defence and the beefing up of forces on the alliance’s eastern flank. In April this year, the accession of Finland enhanced Nato’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/19/finland-sweden-nato-maps/">presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions</a>. At the Vilnius summit, which begins on July 11, alliance leaders are expected to approve a set of <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/07/02/nato-is-drafting-new-plans-to-defend-europe">regional plans</a>, NATO’s most detailed defence documents since the end of the cold war. </p>
<p>In parallel, defence ministries have been working on new capability targets to fit a “New Force Model” agreed at Madrid. Progress toward boosting European armies’ combat readiness <a href="https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2023/06/the-future-of-natos-european-land-forces/">has been mixed</a> – and a majority of the allies remain below Nato’s defence spending target of 2% of GDP. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Poster showing Nato soldiers to promote the summit in Vilnius in July 2023." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535479/original/file-20230704-21-29rsm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pulling together: Vilnius looks forward to the Nato summit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Webber</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Russian belligerence has shifted the dial. All the allies, with the exceptions of the US and Turkey, <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/220627-def-exp-2022-en.pdf">have increased</a> defence spending relative to their countries’ GDP since Nato agreed the Defence Investment Pledge in 2014. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/world-military-expenditure-reaches-new-record-high-european-spending-surges">In 2022</a>, defence spending in central and western Europe was at its highest level in real terms since 1989. Diplomats already have a <a href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2023/07/03/defence-spending-sustaining-the-effort-in-the-long-term/index.html">favoured phrase</a> for the summit outcome – 2% will be the “floor” for defence spending not the “ceiling” of ambition. </p>
<h2>Work to be done</h2>
<p>But there is much still to be resolved. The most important issue, obviously, is Ukraine. Nato’s role has not been to arm Ukraine in its fight with Russia. That is a matter for individual allies with coordination overseen by the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/24/nato-ukraine-military-aid-germany/">International Donor Coordination Centre</a> and the <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9477/CBP-9477.pdf">Ukraine Defence Contact Group</a>.
Neither of these is a Nato body (deliberately so, otherwise their workings would be subject to Nato’s cumbersome consensus rule). </p>
<p>Nato support has instead been through training and the provision of “<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm">non-lethal assistance</a>” such as rations, fuel and medical supplies. In April, Nato foreign ministers <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_213478.htm?selectedLocale=en">approved</a> “a strategic multi-year assistance programme” to extend that commitment. The Vilnius summit will sign it off. </p>
<p>The bigger prize for Ukraine, however, is Nato membership. That would bring the country within the collective defence provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and, in effect, extend US (and UK) nuclear guarantees to Ukrainian territory. In September 2022, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/30/ukraine-applies-for-nato-membership-after-russia-annexes-territory">requested</a> “expedited” membership of the alliance. </p>
<p>This will be difficult to accommodate. No one in Nato is arguing in favour of granting membership while Ukraine remains at war. Beyond that, the allies are divided.</p>
<p>On the one hand, are those such as Poland, the Baltic States, the UK and tentatively France who want Vilnius to lay out a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/26/estonia-prime-minister-ukraine-war-nato/">clear path</a>” to membership once the war is concluded. On the other is the US, backed by Germany, who seem to favour <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/06/21/nato-is-agonising-over-whether-to-let-ukraine-join">diplomatic ambiguity</a> so as to keep all options open (including delay) on the assumption that the war with Russia drags on indefinitely.</p>
<h2>Strong language (but little detail)</h2>
<p>Given all this, writing the summit declaration has proved to be challenging. At Vilnius, expect some strong language on Ukraine’s membership aspirations, but little detail on how that is to be achieved. </p>
<p>There is also no consensus on who will replace Stoltenberg as secretary general. Stoltenberg has been in the job since 2014 and has already had his term extended twice. He has openly voiced a <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_214381.htm">desire to retire</a> when his term ends in October. Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, has <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/21/nato-secretary-general-not-got-job-ben-wallace-defence/">indicated a desire</a> to replace him, but is supported in <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/politics/961379/was-ben-wallace-snubbed-for-top-nato-job">neither Washington nor Paris</a>. Stoltenberg is highly regarded and it won’t be a surprise if his term is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/29/stoltenberg-to-stay-on-as-nato-chief-another-year-00104198">extended yet again</a> at Vilnius. </p>
<p>Another spat has centred on Nato candidate Sweden. Expectations that Sweden (which applied for membership in parallel with Finland) would attend the Vilnius summit as a member have been dashed in the face of opposition from two existing members: Turkey and Hungary. </p>
<p>A Koran-burning episode in Stockholm at the end of June angered the recently reelected Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had already complained of perceived Swedish support for Kurdish separatists. Talks between Turkish and Swedish officials scheduled for just before the summit might make progress. But Erdogan is <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/swedens-fraught-path-to-nato-accession/a-66085063">reportedly</a> also holding out for concessions from the US – including the approval of a blocked deal to purchase F-16 fighter jets. </p>
<p>Hungary’s objections seem more quixotic and may simply be <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-nato-sweden-bid-accession-block-democracy-viktor-orban/">designed to curry favour with Turkey</a>. This, at least, is encouraging. Should Erdoğan make a gesture at Vilnius to facilitate the ratification of Swedish membership, Hungary might then fall in line.</p>
<p>And finally, China. Nato’s 2022 <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf">Strategic Concept</a> raised concerns at Beijing’s efforts “to increase its global footprint and project power”. In practical terms, Nato’s main effort in response has been to strengthen political ties with the Asia-Pacific Four (Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand). </p>
<p>Vilnius is <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/02/national/nato-leaders-summit-japan-preview/">expected to endorse</a> individual partnership agreements with these countries. But broader issues of how Nato should position itself in a new era of Sino-US rivalry have largely disappeared from view as the political and strategic bandwidth of the alliance has been taken up by the Russia-Ukraine war. </p>
<p>So the Vilnius summit will make for interesting viewing, having, in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/13/biden-nato-stoltenberg-ukraine-russia/">words of</a> former US Nato ambassador Douglas Lute: “got everything from war to leadership succession”. For Lute, it’s likely to be “the most challenging” summit in Nato’s recent history. Until, that is, July 2024 when the alliance holds its 75th anniversary summit in Washington DC – just weeks before the commencement of the US presidential election campaign.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Webber is a non-resident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College in Rome. </span></em></p>Nato leaders meet in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius next week - it won’t be plain sailing.Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071202023-06-14T20:11:07Z2023-06-14T20:11:07ZTo deliver enough affordable housing and end homelessness, what must a national strategy do?<p>The Albanese government came to office promising action on housing. Its A$10 billion <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/julie-collins-2022/media-releases/housing-australia-future-fund-draft-legislation">Housing Australia Future Fund</a> is now stuck in the Senate, with the Greens <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/labor-guarantees-minimum-500m-each-year-for-housing-in-bid-to-win-greens-support">demanding</a> more ambitious funding and reforms. The government is also working on its promised <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/housing-support-programs-services-housing/national-housing-and-homelessness-plan">National Housing and Homelessness Plan</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/401">research published today</a> by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), we make the case for a housing and homelessness strategy to be an ambitious national project. Its central mission should be to ensure everyone has adequate housing. </p>
<p>We outline the goals, scope and institutions the strategy needs to succeed. The housing numbers it should deliver to meet demand – including 950,000 social and affordable rental dwellings by 2041 – dwarf current <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/julie-collins-2022/media-releases/albanese-government-housing-agenda-already-delivering">government targets</a>.</p>
<p>Our report draws on new thinking about the need for “mission-oriented” governments to tackle complex problems, as well as policy-making approaches here and overseas. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1556858567218458625"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why a strategy?</h2>
<p>Strategies help to clarify the purpose of action for everyone. They bring together information and expertise that inform and stimulate public discussion. They help define priorities. </p>
<p>This is important for housing and homelessness problems because they are complex. They cross over different policy areas and levels of government. They have diverse causes and broad effects. </p>
<p>By the same token, solving these problems can produce diverse benefits. </p>
<p>The goal of “adequate housing for everyone” – the first target of the United Nations’ <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/cities/">Sustainable Development Goal 11</a> – states the challenge clearly.</p>
<p>To meet that challenge, it is useful to think of governments and stakeholders being engaged in a <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/publications/2019/dec/missions-beginners-guide">mission</a> that requires government to lead the deliberate shaping of markets and direction of economic activity. Fixing market failures and filling unprofitable gaps in the market isn’t enough. </p>
<p>It’s also useful to think about the special status of governments in financial systems. The Australian government is the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/what-is-modern-monetary-theory/12455806">issuer and guarantor of money</a>. It can use this status to finance missions for the public good. </p>
<p>For example, for two years of the COVID-19 emergency, the Reserve Bank of Australia <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/reviews/bond-purchase-program/">bought bonds</a> issued by federal, state and territory governments totalling $5 billion per week. That’s equivalent to one Housing Australia Future Fund every fortnight.</p>
<h2>Fragmented approach causes problems</h2>
<p>Because Australia is a federation, the federal government must work with state and territory governments to implement policies. Most intergovernmental activity has involved housing and homelessness conceived of as welfare issues. </p>
<p>Responsibility for housing and homelessness policy is divided. The <a href="https://federalfinancialrelations.gov.au/agreements/national-housing-and-homelessness-agreement-0">National Housing and Homelessness Agreement</a> guides policy, but is clearly <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/housing-homelessness/report">deficient</a>. Development of other policy levers, such as <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/housing-support/programmes-services/commonwealth-rent-assistance">Commonwealth Rent Assistance</a>, has languished. </p>
<p>The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (<a href="https://www.nhfic.gov.au/who-we-are/our-contribution">NHFIC</a>) finances and supports efforts to increase the supply of housing, particularly affordable housing. The NHFIC is becoming increasingly important as its functions expand. It’s getting a new name, Housing Australia, to match its remit. </p>
<p>The financial regulators, the Reserve Bank and the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA), are arguably conducting housing policy of their own.</p>
<p>Housing policy responsibilities at the state and territory level are similarly fragmented. </p>
<h2>Lessons from other national strategies</h2>
<p>We examined <a href="https://www.placetocallhome.ca/">Canada’s National Housing Strategy</a>. Its rights-based approach, statutory basis and accountability agencies are important innovations. </p>
<p>However, the Canadian strategy is narrowly focused on affordable rental housing. Key issues of tax and finance are beyond its scope. Looking to European housing policy leaders, such as <a href="https://housingpolicytoolkit.oecd.org/www/CountryFiches/housing-policy-Austria.pdf">Austria</a> and <a href="https://housingpolicytoolkit.oecd.org/www/CountryFiches/housing-policy-Finland.pdf">Finland</a>, we can see the value of broader national strategies and dedicated housing agencies.</p>
<p>We can also learn from other national approaches to policy in Australia, such as <a href="https://www.closingthegap.gov.au/national-agreement">Closing the Gap</a> and <a href="https://www.disabilitygateway.gov.au/ads">Australia’s Disability Strategy</a>. </p>
<p>The first lesson is that making a strategy is itself a strategic exercise. Reformers need to develop the capacity to take on and influence established institutions, vested interests and entrenched ways of thinking. </p>
<p>A dedicated lead agency may be needed to coordinate strategy development and implementation. Accountability is crucial. By this we mean more than accounting for the spending of public money. It is also about demonstrating commitment to the reform process and the people it serves.</p>
<h2>What should the strategy’s goals be?</h2>
<p>The strategy should have a clear mission: everyone in Australia has adequate housing.</p>
<p>The strategy should be comprehensive, with a set of secondary missions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>homelessness is prevented and ended</p></li>
<li><p>social housing meets needs and drives wider housing system improvement</p></li>
<li><p>the system offers more genuine choice – including between ownership and renting</p></li>
<li><p>housing quality is improved</p></li>
<li><p>housing supply is improved</p></li>
<li><p>housing affordability is improved</p></li>
<li><p>the housing system’s contribution to wider economic performance is improved.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>And what policy areas are covered?</h2>
<p>The diagram below shows the strategy’s scope and stages. It begins with the familiar core policy areas covered by the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement (bottom left). As the scope of the strategy expands (up and to the right), the intensity of housing policy leadership varies accordingly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing the policy areas to be covered by an Australian Housing and Homelessness Strategy. It indicates 'established core policy areas', 'new core policy areas', 'policy areas for alignment with housing missions', and 'policy areas for articulation with housing missions'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=177&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531823/original/file-20230613-19-4v2ip9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The policy areas to be covered by an Australian Housing and Homelessness Strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/401">AHURI</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Social housing and homelessness are core policy areas for the strategy. To meet <a href="https://cityfutures.ada.unsw.edu.au/social-and-affordable-housing-needs-costs-and-subsidy-gaps-by-region/">current and future need</a>, it should aim to add 950,000 social and affordable rental housing dwellings by 2041. That’s about 50,000 new dwellings a year – a lot more than the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/julie-collins-2022/media-releases/albanese-government-housing-agenda-already-delivering">8,000 a year over five years</a> that the Albanese government has promised so far.</p>
<p>The most cost-effective way to finance this growth is a mix of NHFIC bonds and capital grants from government. State and territory governments should make plans to regularly reassess need and delivery. </p>
<p>Housing assistance, residential tenancies law and building quality should be new core policy areas. The National Cabinet’s <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet">recent decision</a> to develop a tenancy law reform agenda to strengthen tenants’ rights is a welcome step.</p>
<p>Housing-related taxation, housing finance and planning and development regimes should be aligned with Australia’s housing and homelessness missions.</p>
<p>Existing national strategies for First Nations and people with disability need strengthening on housing and homelessness as a matter of priority.</p>
<p>The strategy should be laid down in law. The legislation should enshrine the right to adequate housing, nominate Housing Australia as the lead agency, and establish regulatory and accountability agencies.</p>
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<p><em>The author acknowledges his report co-authors, Associate Professor Julie Lawson, Honorary Professor Vivienne Milligan, Chris Hartley, Professor Hal Pawson and Professor Jago Dodson.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Martin receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the Australian Research Council (ARC).</span></em></p>The strategy’s core mission should be to ensure everyone in Australia has adequate housing. That requires 950,000 social and affordable rental dwellings to be built by 2041, dwarfing current targets.Chris Martin, Senior Research Fellow, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071062023-06-06T06:35:13Z2023-06-06T06:35:13ZIntimate and immense: remembering Kaija Saariaho, one of the greatest composers of our time<p>The Finnish composer Kaija Saariaho passed away Friday at the age of 70. </p>
<p>There’s been an outpouring of grief, sadness and love on social media and in statements from orchestras, festivals and opera companies as the music community processes the loss of one of the greatest composers of our time.</p>
<p>When I was a young composer, the first work by Saariaho I heard live was Jardin Secret I (1985) at the 1988 Hong Kong ISCM Festival. </p>
<p>It was the first time the International Society of Contemporary Music had staged a festival in an Asian country, and many European composers were in attendance. </p>
<p>I was swept up by the work with its haunting bell tones transformed through electronics. The music sounded simultaneously familiar and alien, intimate and immense. I was awed by the imposing presence of a composer I knew only from <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/modern-music-and-after-9780199740505?cc=us&lang=en&">music history texts</a>.</p>
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<p>Later, we met when I served on some competition juries she chaired. </p>
<p>I briefly got to know someone of warm generosity, incisive knowledge and integrity who brought a hilariously dry wit and impeccable timing to telling stories.</p>
<h2>Operas of love and loss of innocence</h2>
<p>Saariaho will be remembered for her many illustrious achievements in forging a luminous musical language out of instrumental and electronic resources, the composition of five major operas, and through numerous orchestral works often showcasing close collaborators as soloists.</p>
<p>Her career reached its peak with two operas.</p>
<p><em>L’amour de loin</em> (Love from afar) created a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/17/arts/opera-review-a-prince-idealizes-his-love-from-afar.html">sensation</a> when it premiered at the Salzburg Festival in 2000 in a production by American director Peter Sellars. </p>
<p>In a lyrical retelling of an enigmatic story of love and spiritual yearning, with a libretto by Lebanese-French writer Amin Maalouf, it has become one of the most <a href="https://operawire.com/in-tribute-to-her-an-exploration-of-kaija-saariahos-operas/">successful</a> 21st century operas.</p>
<p>Hypnotic, suspended harmonies and modal melodies create an alternative, idealised world in which one has time to contemplate themes of obsession, devotion and the realities and illusions of love.</p>
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<p>In 2016, it was the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/arts/music/review-met-opera-amour-de-loin-kaija-saariaho.html">first opera by a female composer</a> to be staged at the Metropolitan Opera in New York since the production of Ethel Smyth’s <em>Der Wald</em> (The Forest) in 1903. </p>
<p>Two decades later, Saariaho’s last opera Innocence (2018) was described by the New Yorker as a “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/07/26/the-sublime-terror-of-kaija-saariahos-innocence">monumental cry against gun violence</a>”. Again, it was immediately hailed as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/arts/music/innocence-saariaho-opera-aix.html">masterpiece</a> at its premiere at the 2021 Aix-en-Provence Festival in France.</p>
<p>Innocence is set in nine languages with a multitude of intersecting stories, but its genius lies in the way the luminously pulsing music is used to maintain dramatic momentum and a clear through line. </p>
<p>Following its premiere, Innocence has been taken up by major opera houses around the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/la-passion-de-simone-brings-simone-weils-sufferings-to-life-but-the-movements-feel-static-109794">La Passion de Simone brings Simone Weil's sufferings to life, but the movements feel static</a>
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<h2>A trailblazer for composers</h2>
<p>Since the mid-80s, a time when there were very few prominent women composers on the international stage, Saariaho has been a major role model.</p>
<p>She <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/deceptivecadence/2016/12/03/503986298/half-of-humanity-has-something-to-say-composer-kaija-saariaho-on-her-met-debut">resented</a> the “woman composer” label and spoke infrequently about the prejudices and challenges she had encountered in the decidedly male-dominated world of classical music. </p>
<p>Yet on the occasions when Saariaho <a href="https://slippedisc.com/2013/11/the-composer-kaija-saariaho-on-sexism-in-classical-music/">did address this topic</a>, she conceded there was a role she could play in raising consciousness about the persistence of gender inequality in music. </p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/deceptivecadence/2016/12/03/503986298/half-of-humanity-has-something-to-say-composer-kaija-saariaho-on-her-met-debut">interview for NPR</a> in 2016 she said:</p>
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<p>I’ve seen it with young women who are battling with the same things I was battling […] 35 years ago. […] Maybe we, then, should speak about it, even if it seems so unbelievable. You know, half of humanity has something to say.</p>
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<p>Saariaho opened pathways for many composers across different generations and practices. Her work alchemised several 20th century musical trends that had tended to inhabit separate “camps” into a unique and emotionally powerful style with broad appeal for both specialists and the general public. </p>
<p>Early on, she engaged with a modernist focus on a detailed chiselling of sounds working with techniques that extended the capacities of any virtuoso performer performing her work. </p>
<p>Working at IRCAM (the Institute for Research and Coordination in Acoustics/Music) in Paris in the 1980s, she created several genre-breaking works.</p>
<p>Lichtbogen (1985/86) for ensemble with live electronics used computer-aided analyses of sound to shape huge sweeping brushstrokes of sensuous sound. </p>
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<p>She worked within the musical field of “<a href="https://www.rem.routledge.com/articles/spectralism#:%7E:text=Spectralism%20is%20a%20tendency%20in,point%20of%20departure%20for%20composition">spectralism</a>”, where the analysis of the acoustic properties of sound is used as the basis of composition. This opened up new approaches to harmony in her music.</p>
<p>Orion (2002) for large orchestra is an example of how she could build up layer upon layer of sound where you hear individual colours in translucent detail within epic, billowing clouds of resonance.</p>
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<p>Her operatic works from 2000 on brought a narrative directness, a ravishing beauty and devastating emotional punch that saw her work embraced by audiences around the world.</p>
<h2>Soul listening</h2>
<p>At the heart of her work was a kind of soul-listening and deep connection to nature. </p>
<p>In 2015, I had the privilege of going for a walk with Saariaho in a snowy landscape outside Hämeenlinna, Finland (the birthplace of Sibelius). As we walked, I got to hear the sounds of cracking ice and the whisper of birch trees through the lens of her delicate observations.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/02/arts/music/kaija-saariaho-dead.html">quoted in The New York Times</a>, she remarked to her biographer Pirkko Moisala:</p>
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<p>The task of today’s artist is to nurture with spiritually rich art. […] To provide new spiritual dimensions. To express with greater richness, which does not always mean more complexity but with greater delicacy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sound-of-silence-why-arent-australias-female-composers-being-heard-59743">The sound of silence: why aren't Australia's female composers being heard?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liza Lim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Finnish composer passed away Friday at the age of 70. She was someone of immense generosity, incisive knowledge and integrity.Liza Lim, Professor, Sculthorpe Chair of Australian Music, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030842023-04-06T14:31:06Z2023-04-06T14:31:06ZHaving low expectations probably won’t make us happier – here’s what psychology research says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519630/original/file-20230405-26-mecz8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6036%2C4035&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-curly-hair-laughing-while-1687578475">mavo/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Finland was recently named <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2023/">the happiest country</a> in the world for the sixth year running. A range of theories have been put forward to explain why the Nordic nation continues to rank at the top of the table for happiness, from <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/23/why-do-people-in-nordic-countries-consistently-rank-as-the-happiest-and-what-can-we-learn-">greater income equality</a> to <a href="https://www.pulse.ng/lifestyle/food-travel/why-finland-is-the-happiest-country-on-earth/mhhsw8c">time spent in nature</a>.</p>
<p>But one <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/finland-happiness-lagom-hygge.html">Finnish sociology professor</a> credited the country’s position to “a cultural orientation that sets realistic limits to one’s expectations for a good life”. That is, he seems to believe Finnish people are happy because they don’t set their expectations too high. </p>
<p>So should we all lower our expectations to be happier? I would argue psychology research suggests the opposite.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-finland-is-the-happiest-country-in-the-world-an-expert-explains-203016">Why Finland is the happiest country in the world – an expert explains</a>
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<p>High expectations are important because they allow us to dream and create goals to work towards. Through a process called <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167213492428?journalCode=pspc">mental contrasting</a>, we create judgements about our expectations of the future and decide which dreams are realistic to pursue and which ones we should let go.</p>
<p>For example, you may imagine yourself living a life with many friends around you. If you’re sitting alone at home dreaming about this and feeling sad about the reality of being lonely, mental contrasting helps you identify your dream, anticipate potential obstacles, plan to take action to overcome them and pursue a goal that will help you make friends, such as joining a club. So high expectations, when realistic, can serve as a motivating force to make a change.</p>
<p>High expectations also keep us optimistic, so that we keep going in the face of adversity. When a bad thing happens to someone and they develop an expectation that everything will work out well – despite the adversity and even if it seems unrealistic at the time – this can lead them to take <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325113585_Optimism_Agency_and_Success">positive steps forward</a>. </p>
<p>For example, your expectation of finding a lifelong partner may diminish when your relationship breaks up. However, if you continue to have high expectations that you’ll meet the right person, you’re more likely to join a dating site and seek opportunities to meet new people.</p>
<h2>On the other hand …</h2>
<p>Low expectations limit our capacity to develop and grow. Having low expectations that we’ll accomplish what we hope to is not a good way to adapt to changes in life, and can lead to feelings of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140197197900889">helplessness and despair</a>.</p>
<p>When we have low expectations of success following adversity, we’re more likely to give up, for example not bother trying a dating app. Even when our chances of success are objectively high, we will forego opportunities – perhaps to meet new people – due to our low expectations that things will work out well for us. </p>
<p>So, having high expectations can help us adapt to changing circumstances and keep going. It’s a sign of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0737-1209.2005.220303.x">resilience, adaptability and wellbeing</a>.</p>
<h2>Expectations of others</h2>
<p>While it’s useful to set high expectations for ourselves, we also tend to perform better when other people have high expectations of us. This is called the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780120644551500051">Pygmalion effect</a>. </p>
<p>Our belief that others see us as capable and believe that we can accomplish more than we think we can pushes us to perform better. Likewise, when others have low expectations of us, we generally perform worse.</p>
<p>The Pygmalion effect has been tested extensively in the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1548051820980428">workplace</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0361476X18300729">education</a>, showing similar results.</p>
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<img alt="People in the city of Helsinki, Finland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519631/original/file-20230405-16-ch4ycw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Finland was named the happiest country in the world for the sixth year running.</span>
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<h2>When can high expectations be bad?</h2>
<p>Setting expectations too high can have negative effects. Imagine you overestimated your skills and challenged yourself too much. Perhaps you started to play Candy Crush on your partner’s phone and their level is way ahead of yours. The mismatch of your skills and this challenge may lead to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8943660/">frustration and even anxiety</a>.</p>
<p>To neutralise this, all you need to do is go back to a level better matched to your skill level – which you find challenging but at which you’re capable of achieving high scores to progress in the game. We tend to do the same in real life to keep the equilibrium. </p>
<p>For example, say you’re organising a dinner party for your friends. If you commit to cooking a sophisticated meal that’s too challenging, your anxiety may reach such high levels that you can’t enjoy your own dinner party. Instead, you could lower your expectations and prepare a meal that doesn’t require as much skill, but still challenges you (and that your friends will no doubt still enjoy).</p>
<h2>Managing expectations</h2>
<p>We all have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092656609000440">longings</a>, a desire for an ideal version of our lives. Some of our longings become goals (for example, becoming a parent), and others become a lifelong desire that will likely never come true (for example, winning the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X_Factor">X Factor</a>).</p>
<p>One of the reasons people may not want to have high expectations is because they want to protect themselves from disappointment when their hopes are not realised, which is a valid concern. However, learning to manage our emotions when sadness and frustration kick in helps us cope more effectively with adversity. </p>
<p>The pros of high expectations in motivating us to set and achieve goals outweigh the cons, and any “protection” we might get from low expectations. Considering all this, I think it’s too simplistic to believe Finns are happier for this reason.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jolanta Burke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After Finland was recently named the happiest country in the world for the sixth year in a row, it was suggested that positivity among the Finnish is related to their expectations.Jolanta Burke, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Positive Health Sciences, RCSI University of Medicine and Health SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034382023-04-06T13:12:18Z2023-04-06T13:12:18ZFinland’s election: what happened to Sanna Marin and what to expect next<p>The results of Finland’s parliamentary elections signal a tumultuous period ahead. This was to a certain degree foreseen by pre-election polls, which indicated that prime minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/sanna-marin-87995">Sanna Marin’s</a> Social Democratic Party (SDP) was about to lose to the opposition conservative National Coalition Party (Kok), led by Petteri Orpo.</p>
<p>The final election result showed a significant shift to the right – and increased success for rightwing populists in particular. The next government is therefore likely to be a coalition of rightwing parties but difficult negotiations lie ahead.</p>
<p>Marin received a very high number of personal votes and her party actually increased its vote share and parliamentary seats but it was not enough to make up for the significant losses suffered by her coalition partners. </p>
<p>Among these parties, only the social-liberal Swedish People’s Party of Finland (RKP/SFP) maintained its position. The <a href="https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/politics/23307-centre-and-greens-set-sights-on-opposition-adding-difficulty-to-coalition-talks.html">Left Alliance (Vas) and the Green League (Vihr)</a> both lost ground. There are indications that among the supporters of these parties some chose to vote tactically for SDP in an unsuccessful attempt to preserve Marin’s hold on the premiership.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the most significant loses were suffered by the agrarian-liberal Centre Party (Kesk), which has now lost its status as one of Finland’s largest three political parties. </p>
<p>Kesk appears to have been replaced by the rightwing populist Finns Party (PS) on its home turf (namely, the northernmost regions of the country, such as the electoral districts of Lapland, Oulu, and Savonia-Karelia).</p>
<p>The PS has gained seven seats and now has 46 MPs, making it the second largest party in the new parliament. This indicates a heavy rightward shift among voters in both middle-sized cities and rural communities, as well as in the more ethnically homogeneous Finnish regions of the north, where the PS became the largest party. The PS has a new female leader, Riikka Purra, who seems keen to push even further on the radical agenda set by her predecessor Jussi Halla-aho. Purra proved to have significant personal popularity in this election.</p>
<p>The remaining seats are divided among the conservative Christian Democrats (KD) (5 MPs), the economically liberal one-man show Movement Now (Liike Nyt) (1 MP), and the representative of the autonomous Åland islands (1 MP, usually joining the parliamentary group of RKP/SFP on grounds of their common Swedish language).</p>
<h2>Not all bad news for women in politics</h2>
<p>While Finland has lost Marin as prime minister, from a gender perspective, the results of these elections nevertheless cement the standing of several women party leaders. Marin and Purra are the most prominent but seven out of the nine parties in parliament are now led by women. Even among the future MPs, the gender distribution is decently balanced, with 46% women and 54% men.</p>
<p>Marin was a trailblazer on the international stage as a young and charismatic woman heading the Finnish government and she did secure a very good result for her party. But this was not enough to shore up her coalition. </p>
<p>Marin showed clear leadership skills during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unfolding economic recession brought about by the war in Ukraine. However, it appears that the policies Marin and the SDP had identified to balance stimulating economic growth and public spending in education, social services, with <a href="https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-//10616/prime-minister-of-finland-sanna-marin-s-statement-at-the-united-nations-climate-change-conference-sharm-el-sheikh-7.11.2022">preparation for a green transition</a> did not gain enough traction among the Finnish electorate to guarantee her continued premiership.</p>
<h2>Coalition talks ahead</h2>
<p>Kok and Orpo’s winning ticket appears to have come off the back of promises to bring in financial restraint while expanding nuclear energy. The PS and Purra, meanwhile, ran on a platform literally promising to “Save Finland!” from alleged uncontrolled migration, EU meddling and the Finnish government’s welfare overspending.</p>
<p>As the leader of largest party in the coming parliament, Orpo now has the task of negotiating a stable governing coalition. Preferably, he will collect the support of more than half of the Finland’s 200 MPs to ensure that stability. The negotiations ahead won’t be easy, since any potential coalition with the rightwing populist PS makes for a very hard sell to the centre-right parties.</p>
<p>So even with the election over, it remains to be seen if Finnish politics is about to switch from being a source of international inspiration to being run according to a rightwing populist isolationist ideology.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ov Cristian Norocel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former prime minister actually increased her party’s vote share but the collapse of her coalition partners has cost her the top job.Ov Cristian Norocel, Associate Professor & Senior lecturer, Department of Gender Studies, Lund UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030162023-04-05T16:06:29Z2023-04-05T16:06:29ZWhy Finland is the happiest country in the world – an expert explains<p>Finland has been the happiest country on earth for <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/world-happiest-countries-2023-wellness/index.html">the past six years</a>, according to the <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2023/world-happiness-trust-and-social-connections-in-times-of-crisis/#ranking-of-happiness-2020-2022">World Happiness Survey</a>. This survey relies on the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/122453/understanding-gallup-uses-cantril-scale.aspx">Cantril ladder life evaluation</a> question:</p>
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<p>Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from zero at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://newint.org/features/2020/12/07/long-read-finntopia">Finland comes out top</a>, followed by Denmark and Iceland. Just why Finns are happier than others comes down to a <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2023/world-happiness-trust-and-social-connections-in-times-of-crisis/#ranking-of-happiness-2020-2022">number of factors</a> including lower income inequality (most importantly, the difference between the highest paid and the lowest paid), high social support, freedom to make decisions, and low levels of corruption. </p>
<p>The graph below shows all 44 counties for which there is both happiness data and income inequality data, each as a coloured dot. The vertical scale shows average happiness, the horizontal scale income inequality.</p>
<p><strong>Average levels of happiness and inequality by country</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Forty four countries each shown as a dot on the graph" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518511/original/file-20230330-28-wcc5fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average levels of happiness (vertical scale) and income inequality (horizontal scale).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World Happiness Survey and OECD income inequality statistics</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The measure of income inequality used here is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrado_Gini">Gini coefficient</a> of income inequality, as <a href="https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm">reported by the OECD</a>. It is the highest rate recorded in each county in any year after 2010 up to the most recent year for which there is data. The graph shows the close relationship between these two measures. In general, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/1/5/pgac224/6754154">when income inequality is larger</a>, money matters more and people are less happy. </p>
<p>Finland also has other attributes that may help people feel happier. It has a <a href="https://www.stat.fi/tup/satavuotias-suomi/suomi-maailman-karjessa_en.html">highly decentralised</a> publicly funded healthcare system and only a very small private health sector. This is far more effective and efficient than some <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/653bbb26-8a22-4db3-b43d-c34a0b774303">alternatives</a> used in other countries. Public transport is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jul/10/helsinki-shared-public-transport-plan-car-ownership-pointless">reliable and affordable</a>, and Helsinki airport is ranked as the <a href="https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/21756-helsinki-airport-receives-an-esteemed-airport-industry-award-best-airport-in-northern-europe.html">best in northern Europe</a>.</p>
<p>There is a <a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/?page_id=8303">Finnish proverb</a> that seems relevant here: <em>Onnellisuus on se paikka puuttuvaisuuden ja yltäkylläisyyden välillä</em> (Happiness is a place between too little and too much). </p>
<h2>How Finland compares</h2>
<p>Finland, Norway and Hungary report similar levels of income inequality, yet people in Finland are, on average, happier. Why is this?</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://wid.world/country/finland/">World Inequality Database</a>, the highest-paid tenth of people in Finland take home a third of all income (33%). That contrasts with the same group taking 36% in <a href="https://wid.world/country/united-kingdom/">the UK</a> and 46% in <a href="https://wid.world/country/usa/">the US</a>. These differences may not appear great, but they have a huge effect on overall happiness because so much less is left for the rest in the more unequal countries – and the rich <a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/books/onepercent/">become more fearful</a>. When a small number of people become much richer, this is an understandable fear.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-ditch-fomo-and-foster-jomo-the-joy-of-missing-out-200400">How to ditch 'fomo' and foster 'jomo' – the joy of missing out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2021, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/finland-happiness-lagom-hygge.html">it was suggested</a> by a sociology professor that simply by having more reasonable expectations, people in Nordic countries appeared to be happier. However, that cannot explain <a href="https://newint.org/features/2020/12/07/long-read-finntopia">why Finland is so very different</a> from Norway on the happiness scale.</p>
<p>All kinds of explanations are possible, including <a href="https://helda.helsinki.fi/bitstream/handle/10138/338664/Language_and_Happiness_MANUSCRIPT_REVISED.pdf?sequence=1">slight nuances of language</a> as well as culture. There is now even the question of whether this global survey is beginning to introduce its own bias, as Finns now know why they are being asked the question (they moved even further ahead of <a href="https://www.thelocal.dk/20230320/worlds-second-happiest-country-denmark-loses-out-to-finland-again/">Denmark</a>in the most recent survey).</p>
<p>However, it is very likely that Finland having more <a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/finntopia/figures_files/page0-1016-full.html">equitable schools</a>, where you are likely to get a good education whichever you choose, as well as a fairer school policy than Norway (almost all Finns go to their nearest school) might actually matter too. So too, a better housing policy with a wide <a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/?p=8977">variety of social housing</a> and <a href="https://world-habitat.org/news/our-blog/helsinki-is-still-leading-the-way-in-ending-homelessness-but-how-are-they-doing-it/">lower homelessness</a>, a health service with waiting times that are the envy of the world – sometimes just being a matter of days (even during the <a href="https://yle.fi/a/3-12496673">worst years of the pandemic</a>) – and numerous other accolades. </p>
<p>Finland <a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/finntopia/contents_files/Finland.pdf">ranks first, second or third in over 100 global measures</a> of economic and social success – better than Norway does. And it has less money overall (and hardly any oil). You could excuse the Finns a little smugness (<a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/omahyv%C3%A4isyys"><em>omahyväisyys</em></a>).</p>
<p>Why does Hungary do so badly despite the income gap between its people being hardly any wider than in Finland and Norway? One could argue that this is to do with its divided politics. In 2022, the European parliament suggested that “Hungary can no longer be considered <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220909IPR40137/meps-hungary-can-no-longer-be-considered-a-full-democracy">a full democracy</a>”.</p>
<p>Freedom matters to people greatly, as well as freedom from fear, and that could explain also why <a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/polarisation-misinformation-and-fear-insights-turkish-media">Turkey</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/19/bulldozer-politics-modi-demolition-drive-fuels-muslims-fears-in-kashmir">India</a> have lower levels of happiness than their levels of economic inequality might predict.</p>
<p>In contrast, <a href="https://www.goodthingsguy.com/lifestyle/south-africa-is-happier-than-ever-against-all-odds-2023-world-happiness-report/">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1288231.shtml">China</a> may be a little happier than their levels of inequality would suggest. South Africa became a democracy in 1994 shortly after <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgcTvoWjZJU">Nelson Mandela was freed</a>, and many people will remember the previous period. People in China are not as fearful as they are often <a href="http://cgss.ruc.edu.cn/English/Home.htm">portrayed in the west</a>.</p>
<h2>Inequality is a factor</h2>
<p>Most countries exhibit happiness levels (<a href="https://www.dannydorling.org/books/economicinequality/figures-and-tables/figure-5-1.html">and much else</a>) that are very predictable from their inequality levels. The UK is spot on in the middle of what you would expect for one of Europe’s most economically unequal countries.</p>
<p>The graph above also shows that (almost as unequal) Israel is a little happier than it ought to be – although it is not clear that the sample taken there included all groups that currently live under that state. Also, that sample was taken in 2022, before the recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-governments-judicial-overhaul-plan-reaction-2023-03-27/">widespread protests in Israel</a>. </p>
<p>The other outlier shown in the graph is Costa Rica, where the president said in 2019:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Seventy years ago, Costa Rica did away with the army. This allows for many things. Eight per cent of our GDP is invested in education because we don’t have to spend on the army. So our strength is human talent, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/sun-sea-and-stable-democracy-what-s-the-secret-to-costa-rica-s-success/">human wellbeing</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So what can the people of a country do if they want to be happier? The most important thing is to <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/27/everything-you-need-to-know-about-finlands-general-election">elect governments</a> that will ensure the country becomes more equal by income. After that, ensuring your social services – school, housing and healthcare – are <a href="https://newint.org/features/2020/12/07/long-read-finntopia">efficient and equitable</a> matters most. And finally, consider your degree of freedom, whether you are actually including everyone in your surveys, and how fearful your population is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danny Dorling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Finns have good schools, public transport, and the difference between the highest- and lowest-paid is quite small. These are factors in high levels of happiness.Danny Dorling, Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032782023-04-05T12:26:34Z2023-04-05T12:26:34ZFinland, NATO and the evolving new world order – what small nations know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519390/original/file-20230404-29-9zng90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C0%2C5150%2C3171&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Finnish military personnel raise their country's flag at NATO headquarters in Brussels.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/finnish-military-personnel-install-the-finnish-national-news-photo/1250764069?adppopup=true">Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the world of geopolitics, great powers make, break and play by their own rules. Smaller states largely have to make do with adjusting to the world as determined by others.</p>
<p>Which is why the <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm">decision by Finland</a> – a country of <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/finland-population">just 5.5 million people</a>, noted for decades as a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26999271">neutral presence in Europe</a> – to <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html">join NATO</a> is so important. It underscores just how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-has-exposed-the-folly-and-unintended-consequences-of-armed-missionaries-197609">upset global realities</a> long thought settled, at least by the Western powers.</p>
<p>The vaunted “<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-does-rules-based-order-mean">rules-based order</a>” that the United States and its NATO allies have touted as the best way to run the world is changing – attracting some, yet more suspicious in the eyes of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-united-states-china-and-the-new-non-aligned-countries/">nations not privy</a> to club membership. Meanwhile, Russia and China are disputing the hegemony of the U.S. and the West over global affairs and seek a system in which <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-has-exposed-the-folly-and-unintended-consequences-of-armed-missionaries-197609">power is distributed regionally</a>, with Moscow and Beijing holding sway over what they they see as their parts of the world. </p>
<p>Smaller nations all over the globe are <a href="https://www.nysun.com/article/as-during-first-cold-war-an-anti-american-non-aligned-movement-grows">recalculating how they fit</a> into this renewed division of the world.</p>
<p>Finland is one such state and has made a dramatic choice. For centuries it has had to consider its own interests in conjunction with – and in accommodation of – those of its gigantic neighbor: czarist Russia, then the Soviet Union and today Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Through the years of the Cold War, Finland adopted a model of neutrality and accommodation in order to coexist with Russia. That way of dealing with a nearby neighboring great power was <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/11/what-is-finlandisation">known as “Finlandization</a>.”</p>
<p>With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago, decision-makers in Helsinki have seemingly driven the final nails into the coffin of Finlandization. The worry for Putin – and perhaps the West – is that the model has not only been killed off for Finland; it is also dead as a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/03/06/finlandization-for-ukraine-realistic-or-utopian/">potential off-ramp solution</a> to the conflict in Ukraine.</p>
<h2>The past no longer as prologue</h2>
<p>After more than a hundred years within the czarist empire, Finland <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2018/01/finland-100-years-of-independence-global-legal-collection-highlights/">gained its independence</a> in 1917. For the next roughly 20 years it became an anti-Soviet outpost precariously positioned next to the USSR. </p>
<p>Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin saw Finland as a gateway to the communist state’s enemies. In his mind, Finland was an existential threat – similar to how <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/3874880-putin-says-ukraine-war-poses-existential-threat-to-russian-people/#:%7E:text=Putin%20says%20Ukraine%20war%20poses%20existential%20threat%20to%20'Russian%20people',-by%20Lauren%20Sforza&text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20said,in%20its%20war%20in%20Ukraine.">Putin sees Ukraine</a> today.</p>
<p>After annexing eastern Poland and the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – after the signing of the <a href="https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/german-soviet-pact">German-Soviet Pact of 1939</a>, Stalin demanded serious territorial concessions from Finland. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/a-short-history-of-the-winter-war">resulting war</a> saw the Finns lose much of their eastern provinces, but they managed to preserve their independence – at some cost. The price for maintaining its democratic state and capitalist economy in domestic affairs during the Cold War was Finlandization.</p>
<p>Through the adapted model for neutrality, Finland was able to convince Moscow for more than a half-century that it was no threat but a loyal trading partner. </p>
<p>With the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, doubts about Finlandization <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union">grew among Finns</a>. They debated whether they should consider joining the Western alliance.</p>
<p>But it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512">Putin’s invasion of Ukraine</a> in 2022 that tipped the scales and finally convinced Helsinki that its security would be enhanced by becoming a member of NATO.</p>
<h2>The dilemma of neutrality</h2>
<p>The invasion also killed off any idea of Finlandization being a model for post-Soviet Ukraine as well.</p>
<p>For the past 30 years, independent Ukraine was viewed as a problem for Putin, who <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/putin-nato-finland-sweden-support-ukraine/626965/">feared its gravitation</a> toward the West. Similarly, even before the invasion last year, Russia was a problem for Ukraine, with authorities in Kyiv fearing dominance from the East.</p>
<p>Before the present war, the Finnish model of independence and neutrality was touted as a <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ukraine-and-finlandization/">viable alternative to Ukraine</a> joining either NATO or drawing closer to the Russian-led strategic alliance, the <a href="https://en.odkb-csto.org/">Collective Security Treaty Organization</a>.</p>
<p>Finland’s experience in preserving its sovereignty by compromising its right to act completely independently in foreign policy might have been a viable model for former Soviet states, some observers held, especially in regards to Ukraine.</p>
<p>Findlandization might have also, so the thinking went, provided a solution to Ukraine’s internal divisions on the question of which to favor: the West or Russia. </p>
<p>Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Ukraine <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-follows-decades-of-warnings-that-nato-expansion-into-eastern-europe-could-provoke-russia-177999">swung between a pro-Russian orientation</a> favored in eastern Ukraine, and a more Ukrainian nationalist identity powerfully evident in western Ukraine. A Finlandization of Ukraine, coupled with the federalization of the various provinces of Ukraine, might have lessened political polarization with Ukraine and allayed the fears of the Russians, and Putin in particular. </p>
<p>Of course, history cannot be rewound; such alternative possibilities cannot be tested. And federalism, which would have required that some decision-making be handed to regional governments, was considered suspect as a viable form of statehood by many in Ukraine and Russia alike. A similar process of federalization was, after all, <a href="https://doi.org/10.12987/yale/9780300106497.003.0033">blamed for the breakup</a> of the Soviet Union.</p>
<p>Moreover, events forced Ukraine’s hand. As Russia <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2022/03/how-russia-descended-into-authoritarianism">gravitated toward authoritarianism</a> and used its oil and gas as a weapon against Ukraine, the attractions of the West – democracy, prosperity and a shiny modernity – seemed far more enticing.</p>
<p>On the initiative of the United States, the West <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer">vaguely promised Ukraine NATO membership</a>, which Russia found completely unacceptable. And the European Union offered Ukraine closer economic and political ties, stirring up fears in Moscow that this was the first step toward NATO.</p>
<p>After the Russian <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">seizure of Crimea in 2014</a>, Ukrainians turned even more sharply toward the West and became more receptive to Western promises of NATO membership.</p>
<h2>‘Small nations can disappear’</h2>
<p>In hindsight, hopes that Ukraine could “Finlandize” or federalize were both casualties of Putin’s increasingly hard line toward Ukraine. </p>
<p>Finland’s entry into NATO marks the likely end of the Finlandization model. Even Finland has abandoned it; neutral Sweden is now anxious to join the Western alliance; and other states, even Switzerland, are questioning the efficacy of nonalignment in a polarized world.</p>
<p>In its place, we have the “NATOfication” of Eastern Europe – something that Putin unwittingly accelerated and which leaves Putin’s Russia with less accommodating neighbors. Meanwhile, countries like Finland and Sweden have been left with fewer options. “A small nation can disappear,” the Czech writer Milan Kundera <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1984/04/26/the-tragedy-of-central-europe/">reminds us</a>, “and knows it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203278/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald Suny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A historian looks at the steps leading up to Finland joining the Western strategic alliance – and what that means for small nations elsewhere.Ronald Suny, Professor of History and Political Science, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032172023-04-04T13:03:08Z2023-04-04T13:03:08ZFinland joins Nato in a major blow to Putin which doubles the length of the alliance’s border with Russia<p>In 1948, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance <a href="https://countrystudies.us/finland/24.htm">was signed</a> between the Soviet Union and Finland, providing a key basis for relations between the two states that was to last throughout the cold war. With memories of the 1939 “winter war” between the two still acute, the agreement embodied the <a href="https://dbpedia.org/page/Paasikivi%E2%80%93Kekkonen_doctrine">Paasikivi–Kekkonen doctrine</a>, named for two of Finland’s post-war presidents who developed the idea between 1946 and 1982 of a neutral Finland close to the USSR. </p>
<p>It also set the context for the term “<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/11/what-is-finlandisation">Finlandisation</a>” used by international relations scholars to describe external interference by a powerful country in the foreign policy of a smaller neighbouring state. A year later, on April 4 1949, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm">the North Atlantic Treaty</a> was signed by the 12 founding members of Nato.</p>
<p>Throughout the cold war, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/for-finland-the-cold-war-never-ended-thats-why-its-ready-for-nato/">Finland remained a neutral state</a> – although more due to circumstance than by choice. And despite its <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65164726">1,340km (832 mile) border</a> with Russia, it chose not to join Nato in the late 1990s, even as many of its eastern European neighbours did. It officially abandon its policy of neutrality in 1994, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50349.htm">joining Nato’s Partnership for Peace</a> and then the European Union <a href="https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/finland_en">in 1995</a>. But aspirations to become a full Nato member state had not quite matured. That all ended with Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.</p>
<p>Finland (and Sweden) <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">submitted their formal applications</a> to join the alliance on May 18 2022 and this was endorsed by Nato members at the most recent <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_196951.htm">summit in Madrid</a> in June. </p>
<p>Although accession to Nato membership was relatively quick, there were objections from some members, most notably Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Hungary. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/28/turkey-lifts-objections-to-finland-and-swedens-nato-bid#:%7E:text=Turkey%20had%20said%20it%20would,Workers'%20party%20(PKK).">Turkey</a> held up membership for Finland – and is still doing so for Sweden – due to its concerns over what it called support for terrorist groups, namely the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK). <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-parliament-backs-finland-nato-bid/">Hungary</a> also raised objections due to what it regarded as criticism by the Nordic states with regard to the strength of Hungarian democracy. But Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said recently he is confident that Sweden <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-sweden-jens-stoltenberg-turkey-finland-elections/">could become a member by summer</a>.</p>
<h2>View from Moscow</h2>
<p>If Putin was hoping to achieve the Finlandisation of Nato as one of his strategic aims of the war, what he has actually achieved was the “Natoisation” of Finland since it has now become the <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212288.htm">alliance’s 31st member state</a>. With this comes Article 5 guarantees – the an attack on one member is an attack on the alliance as a whole and must be responded to as such. This fundamentally changes the defence and security posture of Finland, and <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/how-finnish-and-swedish-nato-accession-could-shape-the-future-russian-threat">European security architecture</a> as a whole. Implications include the size and geographical focus of the alliance (even more so if Sweden joins in the not-too-distant future) as well as inter-organisational relations between Nato and the EU, the other key pillar of the European security architecture.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Europe showing Finland and Russia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519309/original/file-20230404-27-fl0im9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The addition of Finland as its 31st member effectively doubles the length of the border between Nato and Russia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/finland-on-map-vector-color-ukraine-2157143065">buraktumler via Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And Finland is not playing catch up in order to meet its Nato commitments. In fact, Finland will be a net contributor to the alliance’s overall collective defence. Over recent years, it has been modernising its armed forces, purchasing robust military capabilities and, unlike the majority of member states, it meets the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/for-finland-the-cold-war-never-ended-thats-why-its-ready-for-nato/">Nato target of 2% of GDP</a> spent on its own defence.</p>
<p>Putin has, of course, issued warnings to Finland (and Sweden) about joining the alliance. In 2016, Putin <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/finnish-president-sauli-niinistoe-on-putin-and-the-ukraine-conflict-a-bb9281d3-2cc6-49a1-87eb-199569991c79">stated that</a> “When we look across the border now, we see a Finn on the other side. If Finland joins Nato, we will see an enemy.” </p>
<p>Although there have been mixed signals with regard to Russia’s views on the sovereign right of Finland to join a collective defence organisation if it so chooses (although Russia does not extend this position to Ukraine itelf), it is gravely concerned that Nato will position military capabilities in Finland, on its border – and close to Russia’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nato-finland-ukraine-b056e7e0f12520e85ea2d81cd30eabc9">own strategically important bases</a> and geography.</p>
<p>Although Russia is very much focused on correcting its strategic blunders in Ukraine, it will at some stage begin to recover and, therefore, reconstitute its armed forces and military posture. Of particular concern could be Russia’s increased dependency on its tactical nuclear posture to offset its (temporarily) decreased capacity with regard to conventional capabilities. </p>
<p>Although we do not know what the future holds, given both the duration and eventual outcome of the war, Russia will continue to have security concerns. And now it has a border with Nato that will run from the High North down to the Black Sea and beyond. This is guaranteed to lock in continued tensions between the alliance and Russia for years to come.</p>
<p>Nato fundamentally thinks of itself as a collective defence organisation, with (nuclear) deterrence as its core strength. Russia will continue to see the alliance as a key stalwart undermining its threat perceptions and ability to affect its own near abroad. So as the Finnish flag is raised at Nato HQ in Brussels, It would be <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/russia-wont-sit-idly-by-after-finland-and-sweden-join-nato/">naive to think that Russia will not respond</a> – even if its power to do so is currently somewhat diminished.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon J Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Finland has gone from neutral to Nato member in 30 years and Sweden could be set to follow.Simon J Smith, Associate Professor of Security and International Relations, Staffordshire UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2017182023-03-16T12:07:15Z2023-03-16T12:07:15ZScottish bottle deposit scheme to be blocked – but evidence from Europe suggests it’s the way forward<p>Unrecycled drink containers are a huge problem in the UK. A survey by Planet Patrol, a non-profit organisation, found that the drinks industry was responsible for more than a third of the litter found in the UK in 2020 and 2021. The items included plastic and glass bottles, metal drinks cans, single-use cups and lids.</p>
<p>This is a concern. Litter takes years to degrade, causing harm to wildlife and habitats, and cleaning it up is expensive. Street cleaning costs UK taxpayers an <a href="https://www.keepbritaintidy.org/faqs/advice/litter-and-law">estimated £1 billion</a> each year. </p>
<p>The Scottish government has proposed a <a href="https://depositreturnscheme.zerowastescotland.org.uk/">deposit return scheme</a>. People will pay a 20p deposit when they buy a drink in a single-use container, which they get back when the empty bottle or can is returned. Scottish drinks containers would also need to be specially labelled and tracked. </p>
<p>But the scheme is under threat. The UK government is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/13/uk-government-poised-to-block-scottish-bottle-recycling-scheme">unlikely to agree</a> to the trade exemption needed to enable trade rules in Scotland to differ from the rest of the UK. And <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64563015">critics</a> argue that a deposit return scheme will be difficult for smaller retailers in an already competitive sector due to the costs of handling returns and registering with the scheme. </p>
<p>However, similar schemes in other European countries have prevented huge volumes of litter from entering the environment. These deposit return schemes offer insight into how effective a measure they can be and provide a possible route for implementation in the UK.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pile of plastic bottles next to a lake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C0%2C4110%2C2725&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515470/original/file-20230315-24-x6d56e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plastic litter is an environmental concern and a drain on public finances.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pile-garbage-plastic-bottles-on-lake-150820259">Vladimir Gjorgiev/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Evidence from Europe</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://finland.fi/life-society/circular-economy-success-finlands-recycling-programme-keeps-bottles-and-cans-off-the-streets/">Finland</a>, a deposit return system for glass bottles was introduced in the 1950s and continues today, having included plastic drinks containers for the past 20 years. The scheme is operated entirely by the private sector, with 5,000 plastic container-return machines located across the country in shops, hotels, restaurants, offices and schools. </p>
<p>Each time a person buys a drink in a bottle or a can, they pay a 15 to 40 cent deposit, depending on the material the container is made out of. The containers are then recycled or the materials are reused on their return.</p>
<p>Almost every bottle and can in Finland is recycled as a result of the scheme. In 2020, Finnish residents recycled 94% of aluminium cans (out of 1.4 billion sold) and 92% of plastic bottles (out of 530 million). By contrast, just <a href="https://alupro.org.uk/sustainability/fact-sheets/recycling-process-rate/">82%</a> and <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmenvaud/339/33905.htm">57%</a> were recycled in the UK respectively.</p>
<p>Norway has achieved an even more impressive recycling rate of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/12/can-norway-help-us-solve-the-plastic-crisis-one-bottle-at-a-time">97%</a>. Norway’s deposit return approach is instead supplemented with an <a href="https://www.skatteetaten.no/en/rates/beverage-packaging-tax/">environmental tax</a> imposed on bottle producers. The tax is NOK 6.46 (£0.50) per unit of metal and glass and NOK 3.91 (£0.30) for plastic items. To avoid the tax, producers must recycle more than 95% of the containers they produce. </p>
<p>Plastic bottles usually end up being “downcycled” into other items, like fleece materials. But the tax has encouraged producers of plastic bottles in Norway to make bottles easier to recycle by using more uniform and less contaminated materials. Efforts have included using approved bottle tops and glue and labels that are easier to remove. The quality of recycled plastic in Norway is now so high that recycled bottles can be made into new bottles. </p>
<p>Plastic recycling schemes in Europe have also delivered social benefits. The Finnish system allows people to choose to collect their deposit or <a href="https://theculturetrip.com/europe/norway/articles/recycling-in-norway-heres-what-you-need-to-know/">donate it</a> to charity. In Berlin, those not inclined to return their bottles to the store can leave them under bins for others to collect and <a href="https://allaboutberlin.com/guides/pfand-bottles#:%7E:text=In%20Germany%2C%20there%20is%20a%20bottle%20return%20system.,big%20part%20of%20sorting%20your%20trash%20in%20Germany.">claim the reward</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A wall of tightly packed plastic bottles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515488/original/file-20230315-24-jr2kav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plastic bottles at a recycling plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/plastic-ready-be-recycled-yard-company-101127223">Moreno Soppelsa/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public acceptance</h2>
<p>The success of a deposit return scheme largely depends on what happens to the item once it is returned. Success is not based on economic viability alone. Any deposit return scheme needs to be acceptable to the people who run and use it. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clwas.2022.100048">Cost-benefit analysis</a> of two separate deposit return schemes (recycling and reuse) for plastic food trays in Sweden found that the costs are greater than the benefits for recycling, but not for reuse. If you consider the costs involved in packaging, washing and the recycling process, then a return scheme may work best if the item is reused. </p>
<p>In Scotland, concerns about how the scheme will run and its real benefit are chipping away at the confidence of the public and drinks retailers. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X20305183">Research</a> finds that many people in Scotland are unaware of how the deposit return scheme would operate and why it is necessary. Some of the study’s participants even perceived the refund charge as another form of taxation imposed by the Scottish government. </p>
<p>Communication plays a critical role. A different <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150640">study</a>, which explored the public acceptance of a deposit return scheme in Catalonia, Spain, revealed that the way a scheme is presented to users and how much information is given influences how it is perceived. More information (given over the phone) tended to yield a more positive viewpoint. </p>
<p>Clearly, more information is required for Scotland’s recycling scheme to be accepted more widely. </p>
<p>If designed correctly, deposit return schemes can encourage recycling by raising the value of plastic waste. Recycling and reuse schemes are also made more technically and economically viable if backed up with tax incentives. </p>
<p>But the barrier facing the adoption of a deposit return scheme in the UK is a lack of uniformity. We should not be asking if Scotland should adopt a scheme or not. Instead, plans for the rest of the UK to adopt this approach should be accelerated to get the whole of the UK on the same page.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharon George receives funding from Research England. </span></em></p>Evidence suggests that Scotland’s bottle deposit scheme would prevent huge amounts of litter from entering the environment.Sharon George, Research Chair, Indigenous Approaches to Environmental Management, Keele UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1972212023-01-05T20:33:11Z2023-01-05T20:33:11ZDNA reveals large migration into Scandinavia during the Viking age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503216/original/file-20230105-20-c8gnzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More people moved into Scandinavia in Viking times than at any other time period analysed in the study.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/old-wooden-viking-snekkja-longship-type-2044280747">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We often think of the Vikings as ultimate explorers, taking their culture with them to far-off lands. But we may not typically think of Viking age Scandinavia as a hub for migration from all over Europe.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01468-4">In a study published in Cell</a>, we show this is exactly what happened. The Viking period (late 8th century to mid 11th century) was the catalyst for an exceptional inflow of people into Scandinavia. These movements were greater than for any other period we analysed.</p>
<p>What’s also striking is that later Scandinavians don’t show the same high levels of non-local ancestry present in their Viking-era counterparts. We don’t completely understand why the migrants’ genetic impact was reduced in later Scandinavians, but there are some possibilities.</p>
<p>We analysed genomes (the full complement of DNA contained in human cells) from around 17,000 Scandinavian individuals, including nearly 300 from ancient burials. We combined <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982218308443">existing datasets</a> with new samples. These were analysed together in a dataset spanning 2,000 years.</p>
<p>We used these genomes to explore when people arrived in the region from outside and where they came from. New DNA samples were collected from several iconic Swedish archaeological sites. </p>
<p>These included Sandby borg, which is a “ring fortress” <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antiquity/article/moment-frozen-in-time-evidence-of-a-late-fifthcentury-massacre-at-sandby-borg/5C803B7E77A41439BC3B50D4BF96560E">where a massacre occurred just before 500 AD</a>, and the Vendel cemetery, which features several burials contained in large boats and dating to between the 6th and 8th centuries AD. We also used samples from Viking chamber burials and remains from Kronan, a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1095-9270.1990.tb00276.x">warship that capsized with more than 800 men</a> in 1676.</p>
<p>Two previous studies <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982218308443">noted extensive migration</a> into Scandinavia <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2688-8">during the Viking age</a>. But in our latest study, we have clarified some of the details about this flow of genes into the region.</p>
<p>We found that movements of people from western Europe impacted all of Scandinavia, while migration from the east was more localised, with peaks in the Lake Mälaren Valley and Gotland. Finally, gene flow from southern Europe largely affected the south of Scandinavia. </p>
<p>Since the study was based on a 2,000-year chronology, it was not only possible to see there was an increase in migration during the Viking era, but also that it starts to fall with the onset of the medieval period.</p>
<p>The non-local ancestry that arrives in the region at this time falls away in later periods. Much of the genetic influence from eastern Europe disappears and the western and southern influence becomes significantly diluted. The best way to explain this is that people who arrived in Scandinavia during Viking times did not have as many children as the people who were already living there.</p>
<p>There are different possible reasons for this. The migrants could have belonged to groups that did not intend to settle down in Scandinavia, instead aiming to return to where they came from. Tradespeople and diplomats are examples in this category. Additionally, the migrants could also have belonged to groups that were not allowed to have families or children, such as slaves and priests.</p>
<p>We also looked at influences that began at earlier periods in time. For example, the DNA of modern Scandinavians <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41431-021-00899-6">changes gradually as you travel from north to south</a>. This genetic “cline”, or gradient, is due to migrations into the region of people carrying shared genetic similarities known as the Uralic component.</p>
<p>Modern examples of where the Uralic genetic component can be found are among Sami people, people in modern Finland, some Native Americans and some central Asian groups. </p>
<p>In our dataset, we found occasional instances of people with Uralic ancestry – mainly in northern Scandinavia – during the Viking period and medieval times. But the Uralic influence seems to increase after this time, since individuals from our 17th century sample have similar levels of this ancestry to people living today.</p>
<p>There were many other fascinating stories from our study. For example, at the Viking age burial site of Sala, by the river Sagån, we find a woman that seems to be fully British or Irish in her genomic composition. This woman was buried in a prestigious Viking period boat burial. We don’t know exactly what position she held in society, but she would not have been a slave or a priest. </p>
<p>Among the individuals found on the wreck of the Kronan, there were two people who came from what is now Finland and another who has a genetic affinity with people from the Baltic states, such as Lithuania and Latvia (though this identification is not conclusive). At the time of the Kronan incident in 1676, these areas were part of the Swedish Empire, though they are independent today.</p>
<p>The work sheds more light on the historical events that shaped the populations of Scandinavia over time. The Viking age was marked by Scandinavians’ curiosity of the world outside their home region. But, from our results, it also appears that the world outside this region was curious enough about the Vikings to travel to Scandinavia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anders Götherström receives funding from VR, KVA, and EU. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ricardo Rodriguez Varela does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>DNA analysis reveals a large migration of people into Scandinavia during Viking times.Anders Götherström, Professor in Molecular Archaeology, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Stockholm UniversityRicardo Rodriguez Varela, Research in Molecular Archaeology, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835742022-06-21T11:48:35Z2022-06-21T11:48:35ZFinland’s and Sweden’s pursuit of NATO membership is the exact opposite of what Putin wanted for Russian neighbors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469041/original/file-20220615-12-fu73qd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=774%2C884%2C4841%2C2837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Finland and Sweden joined 14 NATO allies in a June 6, 2022, military exercise on the Baltic Sea. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/german-navy-sailor-uses-the-binoculars-onboard-the-german-news-photo/1241200558?adppopup=true">Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>No one should be surprised by the decision made by the governments of <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">Sweden and Finland</a> to apply for full membership in the <a href="https://www.nato.int/">North Atlantic Treaty Organization</a>. </p>
<p>Since the start of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-111-of-the-invasion">Russian assault on Ukraine</a> on Feb. 24, 2022, both countries have given Ukraine missile systems, assault rifles, ammunition and money for refugee resettlement. </p>
<p>In my view as <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/faculty-and-staff/faculty.cfm?pid=1003437">a scholar of international relations</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/5/13/23069341/finland-sweden-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-war">Finland and Sweden</a> essentially gave up their political neutrality and nonalignment – key aspects of their national identity – when they both joined the <a href="https://op.europa.eu/webpub/com/eu-what-it-is/en/">European Union</a> in 1995.</p>
<p>The Russian assault on Ukraine was the last straw that broke down any remaining barriers to full integration with the NATO alliance. </p>
<h2>Finland’s past and present with Russia</h2>
<p>With a combined population of 16 million, Finland and Sweden, as nonmembers, don’t have the protection of <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm">NATO’s collective security guarantee</a> that an attack on one ally is an attack on all.</p>
<p>Russian aggression is of particular concern to Finland. </p>
<p>Though Finland and Sweden are both sandwiched between Russia and NATO-member Norway, only Finland shares a land border – about 830 miles – with Russia. </p>
<p>And only Finland has a recent history of fighting against Russian assaults. </p>
<p>Between 1939 and 1944, about 96,000 Finns, or 2.5% of the population, died during two separate wars with Russia during the concurrent Russo-Finnish War and World War II and more than 400,000 people lost homes. Fighting under the cover of snow and dense forests, the Finnish army repelled Russian attacks but lost around 10% of Finland’s territory in the subsequent peace agreement in 1948. </p>
<p>The Finns were also forced by the Soviets to adopt neutrality after the country’s loss in World War II. </p>
<p>That changed with the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/15/europe/finland-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html">setting aside Finland’s neutrality</a> with its application for NATO membership, Finland Prime Minister <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/sanna-marin/?sh=1371110f1428">Sanna Marin</a> had a sobering observation: “Russia is not the neighbor Finland thought it was.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white woman wearing a white blazer stands behind a lectern and talks to reporters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469033/original/file-20220615-8153-yrsile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">On May 15, 2022, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin announces decision that Finland applied for NATO membership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/finlands-prime-minister-sanna-marin-gives-a-press-news-photo/1240681199?adppopup=true">Alessandro Rampazzo/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In early 2022, <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/finland-to-apply-for-nato-membership-sweden-expected-soon/">public opinion polls</a> in Finland indicated only 24% of the public supported NATO membership. But four days after the Russian invasion, Finns favored <a href="https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/in-finland-poll-suggests-over-40-percent-of-population-oppose-nato-membership-articleshow.html">joining NATO</a> alliance by 68%. </p>
<p>On May 9, 2020, that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/finnish-support-for-nato-membership-jumps-to-76-in-latest-poll">figure was 76%</a>. </p>
<p>“You (Russia) caused this,” <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220512-finland-s-leaders-back-nato-membership-in-major-policy-shift-triggered-by-ukraine-war">explained Finnish President Sauli Niinisto</a>. “Look in the mirror.” </p>
<h2>Swedish hesitancy</h2>
<p>Three days after Russia launched its assault on Ukraine, Sweden provided Ukraine with 5,000 anti-tank weapons, 5,000 body shields, 5,000 helmets and 135,000 field rations.</p>
<p>“It is not Swedish practice to send military equipment to conflict zones,” <a href="https://www.government.se/articles/2022/02/sweden-to-provide-direct-support-and-defence-materiel-to-ukraine/">Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said</a>. “The last time Sweden did so to any great extent was when the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939.”</p>
<p>In fact, the last time Sweden fought in a war was against its neighbor <a href="https://www.royalcourt.no/seksjon.html?tid=28691">Norway, in 1814</a>.</p>
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<img alt="A middle-aged white man and white woman dressed in a business suits stand behind lecturns during a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468997/original/file-20220615-25-wqod7d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson answer questions from reporters on June 13, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-and-swedens-prime-news-photo/1241282686">Henrik Montgomery /TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>“We would be rather naive not to recognize that there is a threat” from Russia toward Sweden, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-putin-faces-more-nato-arctic-after-ukraine-invasion-2022-04-04/">Swedish Major Stefan Nordstrom told Reuters</a>. “The security situation in the whole of Europe has changed and we have to accept that, and we have to adapt.”</p>
<p>Sweden has a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-finland-give-nato-turf-troops-and-advantage-officials-say-2022-5">very capable military</a> that includes a navy with Baltic Sea expertise and experience chasing Russian submarines. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=sweden#:%7E:text=For%202022%2C%20Sweden%20is%20ranked,0.0000%20is%20considered%20'perfect'">Global Fire Power</a>, a military analysis website, says that Sweden has 16,000 active military personnel and 22,000 paramilitary forces. Sweden has 121 tanks, according to the website.</p>
<p>Those numbers are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-15/sweden-s-faux-neutrality-couldn-t-survive-putin-s-ukraine-war#xj4y7vzkg">sure to grow</a> now. Sweden plans to <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/sweden-defense-market-analysis/#:%7E:text=The%20defense%20budget%20in%20Sweden,7%25%20during%202023%2D2027.">raise its military spending</a> as a result of the Ukraine war. In 2020, that spending accounted for 1.2% of the country’s GDP, but now it will <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-11/swedens-defence-budget-could-reach-2-of-gdp-in-2028-military-says">rise to 2%</a> by 2028.</p>
<p>Sweden’s 2022 military budget is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=SE">about US$8.9 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Swedish <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/growing-majority-swedes-back-joining-nato-opinion-poll-shows-2022-04-20/">public support for joining NATO</a> has increased significantly since the Russian assault, despite its historical opposition to joining an alliance that has nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>“There is no way back to a past of illusionary neutrality,” <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sweden-finland-nato-membership-expanded-european-defense-capacity-by-carl-bildt-2022-04">Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister</a>, wrote in April 2022.</p>
<h2>Shared European security</h2>
<p>The foreign policy DNA of Sweden and Finland emphasizes <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/sisters-not-twins-prospects-finland-and-swedens-nato-accession">collective action and solidarity</a> with those who respect a rule-based system – including the sovereignty and independence of all countries. </p>
<p>Both Finland and Sweden already are active members of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/">United Nations</a>, the <a href="https://www.osce.org/">Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe</a> and the <a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal">Council of Europe</a>.</p>
<p>After <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/how-russia-invaded-ukraine-in-2014-and-how-the-markets-tanked.html">Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea</a>, both Finland and Sweden increased their cooperation with NATO by participating in NATO military exercises on land, air and sea. </p>
<p>In addition, because of their common interests in Arctic and European security, Sweden and Finland maintained security arrangements with each other and other countries such as Norway and the United States involving training exercises, intelligence sharing, operational planning and the creation of command and control networks. </p>
<h2>Consequences for Russia</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/how-could-russia-react-to-finland-sweden-joining-nato.html">possibility of Finland’s and Sweden’s</a> joining NATO caused an immediate reaction by <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/finland-nato-russia-sweden-ukraine-united-states-vladimir-putin/">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> – and a realization that what he calls “the special operation” <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/05/putins-war-backfires-finland-sweden-seek-join-nato">in Ukraine was backfiring</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, the values and traditions of the Western alliance and their security interests moved both Finland and Sweden to abandon their commitment to neutrality. </p>
<p>NATO’s addition of Finland and Sweden, should it happen, will likely lead to a stronger European pillar in NATO. The war in Ukraine may very well be the first military conflict in which a coalition of democracies directly confronts authoritarian states. </p>
<p>It is not wise to be alone in a region with an authoritarian neighbor. Both Sweden and Finland have chosen to be a part of the greater conflict to protect democratic governance and the independence of all countries – including their own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Lamy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sandwiched between Russia and NATO ally Norway, both Sweden and Finland have maintained neutrality in global conflicts. That changed in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.Steven Lamy, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Relations and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837572022-05-26T15:09:35Z2022-05-26T15:09:35ZUkraine war: crisis between the west and Russia gives Turkey a chance to strengthen its hand at home and abroad<p>The longstanding neutrality of Sweden and Finland was abandoned when both states <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">submitted formal applications to Nato</a>. But they are facing an unexpected obstacle on the way to membership: <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/22/why-turkey-is-blocking-bids-by-sweden-and-finland-to-join-nato">Turkey</a>. While Turkey supports the alliance’s “open door” policy, Ankara’s veto reflects its aims to change the status quo and make gains in three areas: the eastern Mediterranean, Syria – and in its own domestic politics.</p>
<p>Turkey has always had bumpy relations with Nato. In 2009, Ankara <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/apr/05/nato-eu-denmark-turkey">blocked the appointment</a> of the former Danish prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as Nato secretary-general, because of his defence of free speech during the Danish cartoons crisis in 2006. He also allowed a rebel Kurdish TV station to broadcast from Denmark into Turkey. Another low point was in 2019, when Turkey started a military campaign against the Kurdish forces in Syria. This led to Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, criticising Ankara for “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2019/10/14/turkeys-relationship-with-nato-tested-over-syria-operation">jeopardising</a>” the fight against Islamic State. </p>
<p>The current crisis is in some ways a hangover from previous episodes particularly in relation to the Kurdish region in Syria. But it is unfolding against the backdrop of different geopolitical realities, including the deterioration of relations between the west and Russia, as well as a new domestic political context in Turkey.</p>
<h2>Turkey vs Greece</h2>
<p>There is an interesting backstory to the recent confrontation between Greece and Turkey involving tensions between the US and Turkey – which have been <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/13/europe/turkey-russia-missiles-nato-analysis-intl/index.html">building up for some time</a>. When, in 2017, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin agreed on a deal for the purchase of Russian S-400 missile system, the US retaliated with the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/us-cuts-turkey-from-f-35-program-after-russian-missile-deal.html">exclusion of Turkey</a> from the F35 jet fighters development programme, banning Turkey from the purchase of the jets. The Biden administration has reportedly been considering dropping this ban in recent months, prompting the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61562305">to urge the US Congress</a> to reconsider.</p>
<p>There’s a complex background to all this. Athens is a key player in eastern Mediterranean energy politics, and the exploration of energy sources in the contested waters of the eastern Mediterranean as well as Egypt’s need to transport its natural gas exports to Europe has forged an alliance between Greece, Israel, Egypt and Cyprus – a bloc which excludes Turkey. Meanwhile, the EU has sanctioned two executives of Turkish Petroleum Incorporated Company for <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/11/11/unauthorised-drilling-activities-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-council-prolongs-the-sanctions-regime-by-one-year/">“illegal drilling activities”</a>, because they were unauthorised by the Republic of Cyprus, which claims sovereignty in the area.</p>
<p>But as the search for alternative energy sources for Europe continues against the backdrop of the breakdown of relations with Russia over the war in Ukraine, Ankara sees an opportunity to break its isolation by becoming an energy hub for the west. However it believes Sweden and Finland’s prospective Nato membership could increase opposition to Turkey’s energy interests within the alliance in favour of Greece and Cyprus. </p>
<h2>Turkey vs YPG</h2>
<p>Meanwhile Sweden and Finland have operated an arms embargo against Turkey since 2019, prompted by Turkish military operations against Kurdish People’s Defence Forces (YPG) in northern Syria. Turkey sees the YPG as the offshoot of the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/turkeys-pkk-conflict-visual-explainer">Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)</a>, which is recognised as a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/866092/Turkey_country_policy_and_information_note_Kurdistan_workers_party__PKK__February_2020.pdf">terrorist organisation</a> by Turkey, the US and the EU. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1528687754254630913"}"></div></p>
<p>Sweden is home to a huge number of Kurdish refugees, estimated at <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-finland-nato-turkey-erdogan-magdalena-anderssonkurdish-rights/">more than 100,000</a> and Ankara has long been uneasy about the relationship between the Swedish leadership and the the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD – the political wing of YPG). These concerns deepened after Magdalena Andersson was elected as prime minister in 2021, partly as a result of the support of a Kurdish member of parliament. It has been reported that the support was secured <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/why-sweden-s-stance-on-kurds-riles-turkey-s-erdogan-quicktake">in exchange for increasing cooperation</a> between Andersson’s Social Democrats and the PYD, including better treatment of the supporters of YPG in Sweden and not giving in to Turkey’s demands. </p>
<p>Turkey also claims that Sweden provides military equipment to the Kurds, something it has criticised as against “<a href="https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/haberler/detay/directorate-of-communications-posts-on-swedens-application-for-nato-membership">the spirit of the alliance</a>”. </p>
<p>Like in the eastern Mediterranean, the new geopolitical context offers Ankara an opportunity to change the status quo in favour of Turkey. If Ankara were to secure Swedish and Finnish concessions on reducing support to the Kurds in Syria, it would be seen as an important victory for Turkey. Assurances that Sweden and Finland would not block the military equipment transfer to Turkey or veto the trigger of Article 5 of the Nato treaty in case Turkey is attacked by an aggressor, would also be significant gains.</p>
<h2>Domestic politics</h2>
<p>Domestic politics is also playing an important part in Turkey’s diplomatic manoeuvrings. According to the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/turkeys-economic-woes-are-hurting-erdogan-polls-2022-01-11/">latest polls</a>, Erdoğan faces stiff opposition in the 2023 presidential elections and his Justice and Development Party could lose its parliamentary majority to a united opposition alliance, thanks to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/16/turkeys-war-with-inflation-prices-change-daily-and-everyone-is-scared">deepening economic crisis</a>, high inflation and devalued Turkish lira. </p>
<p>Erdoğan, like any populist politician, knows how to manipulate voters by presenting himself as a strong hand against perceived enemies at home or abroad. Presenting a tough stance against Sweden and Finland’s support for the Kurdish forces in Syria, plays well to domestic audiences in Turkey. As does <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61562305">hitting back against Greece</a>. It all adds up to a “siege mentality” strategy, which is likely to be the backbone of the government’s election campaign in coming months. The government is likely to make strong associations between the opposition parties and internal and external threats to help shift the focus from the deep economic crisis besetting the country.</p>
<p>Turkey cannot postpone Swedish and Finnish membership forever – but it’s possible that Ankara will receive some of the assurances it seeks. After all, Erdoğan has got away with using international crises for its own domestic and foreign policy ends. But in the context of a new cold war between the west and Russia, Turkey’s manoeuvrings might play into the hands of those questioning Turkey’s commitment to the alliance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Bilgic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Turkey’s veto on Finland and Sweden joining the alliance is part of a complex political game being played by Ankara.Ali Bilgic, Reader in International Relations and Security, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835832022-05-26T14:24:51Z2022-05-26T14:24:51ZSweden: a history of neutrality ends after 200 years<p>Sweden’s application to <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">join Nato in May</a> marks a major shift away from its longstanding position as a neutral state, stretching back to 1812.</p>
<p>Yet following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the decision now appears to command wide political support across the Swedish government, parliament and population. Swedish public support for Nato membership has gradually increased over the last decade, with 58% <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/660842/survey-on-perception-of-nato-membership-in-sweden/">now in favour</a> and only 19% opposed. The major Swedish political parties all decided to support the <a href="https://time.com/6177005/sweden-nato/">membership application</a>, too. </p>
<p>Sweden’s neutrality began after a disastrous loss of territory to Russia during the Napoleonic wars in 1812, and this security policy later enabled it to distance itself from the shifting military alliances in Europe during the <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/se-neutrality.htm">19th century</a>. During the 20th century, Sweden’s neutrality developed into an active internationalist foreign policy promoting international peace and security through diplomacy, cooperative security arrangements and international organisations.</p>
<p>Throughout the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War">cold war</a>, Sweden used its neutral position to moderate the confrontation between the east-west blocs; while aligning itself clearly with support for democracy, human rights and liberal market systems. After the cold war ended, Sweden energetically supported efforts to develop a new co-operative <a href="https://www.sipri.org/publications/1984/sipri-fact-sheets/post-cold-war-security-and-europe">European security order</a> centred around rules on conflict prevention and respect for national sovereignty and national borders, as embedded in the agreements established by the <a href="https://www.osce.org/">Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe</a>. </p>
<p>Within this framework, Sweden aimed not only to enhance its own security but also the security of the Nordic and Baltic Sea regions. This included the newly independent states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, with which Sweden has strong cultural, social and political affiliations. </p>
<p>Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign and security policy under President Vladimir Putin since 2004 posed increasing challenges to these objectives. Although Sweden has not been a prominent focus for Russian government pressure and provocations, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania definitely have. They became regular targets of cyberwarfare and military incidents with Russian forces on <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1500/RR1577/RAND_RR1577.pdf">their borders</a>. Russia’s 2008 military <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-what-russia-has-learned-about-western-responses-from-its-past-military-manoeuvres-177856">intervention in Georgia</a> intensified Baltic security fears that their neighbour might also intervene in their territory, and Sweden and Finland inevitably followed those security debates closely.</p>
<p>From 2008 onwards, Sweden discovered covert Russian submarine operations within its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/19/sweden-search-russian-submarine-stockholm">territorial waters</a> in the Baltic Sea. It became frustrated that these incidents continued despite making diplomatic protests to Russia. In response, Sweden reversed the winding down of its <a href="https://news.usni.org/2014/10/28/lessons-swedens-sub-hunt">anti-submarine warfare capabilities</a>, and imposed <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/swedish-island-backs-away-from-russian-gas-project/706571">strong restrictions</a> on Russian commercial activities on Gotland and other Swedish islands.</p>
<p>The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and intervention in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine confirmed that Russia no longer accepted previous agreed national boundaries. It also strengthened the arguments within Sweden and Finland that Russian military activities in the Baltic Sea <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23745118.2018.1545182">might signal preparations</a> for an intervention into one or more of the Baltic states.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-why-it-wants-to-block-sweden-and-finland-from-joining-nato-and-what-it-stands-to-lose-183310">Turkey: why it wants to block Sweden and Finland from joining Nato – and what it stands to lose</a>
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<p>Neutral states know that they cannot rely on allies for military assistance. So they invest relatively heavily in defence. For example, Sweden and Finland, which applied at the same time to <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_195468.htm">join Nato</a>, maintain strong territorial defence forces and are well-equipped with relatively advanced weapons systems. As EU members, both countries became relaxed about interpretations of <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/19260/WP29.pdf">their neutrality</a>, in the sense that they went along with the development of EU common foreign and security policy including elements of defence cooperation.</p>
<h2>Defences added</h2>
<p>After Russia’s 2014 interventions in Ukraine, Sweden recognised that it would need military cooperation and assistance from other states to realistically prepare for a possible Russian move in the Baltic Sea area. Sweden <a href="https://www.defmin.fi/en/themes/international_defence_cooperation/defence_cooperation_between_finland_and_sweden#0000099e">started cooperating closely</a> on military matters with Finland, while also increasing Nordic defence co-operation with (Nato members) Denmark and Norway. </p>
<p>As EU members, Sweden and Finland could also make use of defence co-operation arrangements, though these were recognised to be inadequate for serious defence and deterrence against Russia. So they also quietly <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sweden-and-finland-join-uk-led-response-force">but rapidly</a> developed defence ties with the US and UK. In May 2018, for instance, Sweden, Finland and the US signed a statement of intent to develop close co-operation on military exercises and inter-operabiity and <a href="https://icds.ee/en/the-united-states-finland-and-sweden-a-trilateral-statement-of-defense-interest/">defence readiness</a>. </p>
<p>In another significant move Sweden reintroduced military conscription in January 2018, and its October 2020 <a href="https://www.government.se/government-policy/defence/objectives-for-swedish-total-defence-2021-2025---government-bill-totalforsvaret-20212025/">defence bill</a> included substantial increases in military spending. It also <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/660d038c-c8bc-11e4-8617-00144feab7de#axzz3UD7oACNX">reintroduced a garrison</a> on Gotland because of its strategic position in the Baltic Sea.</p>
<p>None of these developments implied that Sweden (or Finland) had plans by 2021 to join Nato – on the contrary, public debates on this issue were completely unresolved. But they provided a context for them to rapidly establish shared understandings of the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. </p>
<p>After Swedish public opinion on Nato membership <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/660842/survey-on-perception-of-nato-membership-in-sweden/">shifted decisively</a>, the government and interested parliamentarians could quickly recognise that Nato membership was a logical next step. The governments of Sweden and Finland co-ordinated closely on the timing of their applications to join Nato, to avoid risks of political isolation and reflect their defence co-operation. Strong Russian objections were anticipated but <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b3f29756-06e1-443d-8364-bd98c7cd19d4">judged to be manageable</a>, particularly if both countries acted together.</p>
<p>Sweden and Finland each bring substantial military capabilities as well as political strengths to Nato, and it is very likely that their membership applications will be accepted reasonably smoothly, despite initial <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-why-it-wants-to-block-sweden-and-finland-from-joining-nato-and-what-it-stands-to-lose-183310">Turkish objections</a>. Their membership will strengthen both Nato and its focus on security and deterrence in the Baltic region. </p>
<p>In the medium to long term, it can be expected to add to Nato debates about the roles and deployments of nuclear weapons, because both countries have traditionally supported nuclear disarmament. But in the next few years, the issues of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the defence and security of the Baltic states are likely to dominate Nato and Swedish defence agendas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Owen Greene has in the past received multiple grants and other funding from the ministries and agencies of the Swedish government, including from the Swedish International Development Agency. No such funding has been received in the last five years.</span></em></p>The nation’s military strengths will add a considerable amount to Nato’s capabilities around the Baltic, an expert says.Owen Greene, Professor of International Security and Development, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.