tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/food-supply-5312/articlesFood supply – The Conversation2023-10-16T15:05:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153592023-10-16T15:05:42Z2023-10-16T15:05:42ZGaza has been blockaded for 16 years – here’s what a ‘complete siege’ and invasion could mean for vital supplies<p>After 56 years of occupation and a 16-year blockade, the Gaza Strip (Gaza) is now subjected to what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/09/israel-declares-siege-on-gaza-as-hamas-claims-israeli-strikes-killed-captives">Israel’s defence minister</a> described as a “complete siege”. Water, food, energy and fuel supplies have been severed as further retaliation for Hamas’s attacks. </p>
<p>Gaza’s estimated 2.3 million citizens are used to struggle. And as a political ecologist researching food sovereignty in Gaza City and Khan Yunis, a city in southern Gaza, with local specialists, I’ve seen how the food system has already been <a href="https://theconversation.com/gazas-food-system-has-been-stretched-to-breaking-point-by-israel-188556">stretched to breaking point</a>. </p>
<p>Gaza’s single power station has now <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/11/middleeast/gaza-power-plant-shuts-down-intl/index.html">ceased to function</a>, as the current dark night skies – save for explosions – bear witness. Without fuel or electricity, farmers will be unable to pump water to irrigate crops, or to process and safely store food.</p>
<p>Before the latest hostilities, 70% of Gaza’s households were already classified as <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/2021-gaza-emergency-food-security-assessment-following">“food insecure”</a>, unable to afford their daily requirements. Two-thirds of people are refugees, <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/sites/default/files/gaza_thematic_6_0.pdf">reliant on UN aid</a>. As a captive market, most of what is imported comes from Israel. Palestine is Israel’s <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/isr/">third largest export market</a> after the US and China. </p>
<p>Food and farming have long been complicated by repeated airstrikes, occupation and blockade. In good years, Gaza remains <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc7323en/cc7323en.pdf">self-sufficient</a> in fruit and vegetables, much produced intensively in polytunnels and greenhouses. </p>
<p>According to data I obtained from the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture, in 2021 Israeli exports to Gaza included seeds, over a million litres of pesticides and herbicides, and 4.5 million litres of fertiliser used in this intensive production. Nitrates from fertilisers that leach into groundwater are a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/239387500_Analysis_of_Nitrate_Contamination_of_Gaza_Coastal_Aquifer_Palestine">major source of pollution</a>, doing long-term damage to Gaza’s agroecosystems.</p>
<p>This dependency is compounded by a third of Gaza’s farmland being <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/humanitarian-situation-in-the-gaza-strip-fast-facts-ocha-factsheet/">in no-go zones</a> along the border, resulting in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-flour-mills-ground-down-by-russian-ukraine-conflict-2022-05-23/">low cereal production</a> and availability of animal protein. Most animal products came from (or through) Egypt, via the Rafah crossing, which has been a vital lifeline and was closed at the time of writing. </p>
<p>Small family farms and more intensive commercial farms still provide a source of livelihood for a significant proportion of Gaza’s population. Many home gardens, too, are <a href="https://agritrop.cirad.fr/592999/1/Marzin%20Uwaidat%20Sourisseau%202019%20Study%20on%20SSA%20in%20Palestine%20with%20FAO%20WBGS%20final.pdf">used for food production</a>, either for family consumption, sharing or bartering to ameliorate the stresses of blockade. </p>
<p>But as families now seek shelter from Israeli bombardment, the harvesting that takes place at this time of year will have come to a halt. Essential crops will spoil, and winter crops needing irrigation will perish.</p>
<h2>Water</h2>
<p>Israel controls all <a href="https://www.btselem.org/water#:%7E:text=According%20to%20Palestinian%20Water%20Authority%20figures%20for%20the%20Gaza%20Strip,was%20193.7%20million%20cubic%20meters.">water resources</a> across Palestine. Mekorot, Israel’s national water company, extracts water from the coastal aquifer that lies beneath bedrock along the coast of Gaza and Israel, to irrigate large-scale intensive Israeli agriculture. It then pipes and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2017/11/the-occupation-of-water/">sells water</a> into the Gaza Strip. This supply has now been cut off. </p>
<p>What is left comes from the aquifer, or groundwater polluted by untreated wastewater and nitrates. Over-exploitation of the aquifer, due to demands from Gaza’s population and Israel’s irrigation, has resulted in seawater intrusion and salinity levels so high that it is now considered <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/study-warns-water-sanitation-crisis-gaza-may-cause-disease-outbreak-and-possible-epidemic">unfit for human consumption</a>. </p>
<p>Without fuel for pumps, no water extraction is possible. And the municipal desalination plant that supplied Gaza with 15% of its water has ceased to function.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, repairs of ageing and damaged infrastructure from previous bombardments have consistently been <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-01-09/ty-article/.premium/israel-holds-up-vital-spare-parts-for-gazas-water-and-sewage-systems/0000017f-e7eb-d97e-a37f-f7efd5c50000">hampered by the blockade</a>, affecting water pumping, desalination plants and sewage treatment. </p>
<p>In 2008, strikes on Gaza’s largest sewage treatment plant resulted in <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/assessment/environmental-assessment-gaza-strip">100,000 cubic metres of sewage</a> being released into homes and farmland. Further strikes in 2018 resulted in discharges of raw waste <a href="https://unctad.org/news/palestinian-socioeconomic-crisis-now-breaking-point">into the Mediterranean</a> threatening the fish stocks Palestinians depend upon. </p>
<p>Just a few weeks ago, Gaza had eight wastewater pumping stations for sewage treatment, requiring 55,000 litres of fuel a month. My contact at the mayor’s office tells me that two of these were destroyed on the first day of Israel’s airstrikes. Without fuel to operate the ones that remain, a repeat of 2008 is already unfolding, with grave implications for ecosystem and human health.</p>
<h2>Invasion</h2>
<p>It is impossible to predict how disastrous a ground invasion would be. Over the past 15 years, damage to Gaza’s infrastructure is thought to amount to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-united-nations-israel-palestinian-gaza-hamas-186d89b5fa8ae171c166f6162d6ea3da">US$5 billion</a> (£4.1 billion) across four previous wars. </p>
<p>After the 22-day invasion from December 2008 to January 2009, the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/SpecialSession/Session9/UNITAR_UNOSAT_GFFM_UNOHCHR_31July2009.pdf">UN documented wide-scale damage</a> to fields, vegetable crops, orchards, livestock, wells, hatcheries, beehives, greenhouses and irrigation systems. <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/8736/UNEP_Gaza_EA.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y">Over 35,750 cattle</a>, sheep and goats and more than one million poultry were killed. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/8736/UNEP_Gaza_EA.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y">UN mission</a> stated that the destruction had degraded land, by “mechanical ripping and removal of trees, shrubs and crops”, and that the “passage of heavy tracked vehicles has compacted the soil”, hampering future cultivation. </p>
<p>With each war, Gaza’s dependence on Israeli imports of water, energy, fuel, food and agricultural inputs only increases. Meanwhile, Israel’s economy has become intricately bound to its illegal occupation of Palestine, to the tune of exports worth <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/isr/">US$4.16 billion in 2021</a>, creating a perverse mutual dependence.</p>
<p>A complete siege on Gaza would <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-is-being-strangled-why-israels-evacuation-order-violates-international-law-215787">appear to constitute</a> a contravention of international <a href="https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciv-1949/article-55?activeTab=undefined">human rights law</a> which states that Palestinians must be “supplied with the food, medicine and other basic needs to allow the population to live under adequate material conditions”.</p>
<p>The situation for Gazans is dire. Sheltering from military strikes, farmers unable to harvest or distribute food, added to blocks on water, food and energy, all in Gaza are acutely vulnerable to disease and malnutrition. </p>
<p>It is eight years since the UN predicted that Gaza would soon become “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/03/world/middleeast/gaza-un-issues-warning-about-living-conditions.html">uninhabitable</a>”. It said that years of blockade had “shattered” Gaza’s ability to provide for its people, “ravaged its already debilitated infrastructure” and “accelerated de-development”. A total siege will go a long way towards turning that prediction into a gruesome reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Georgina McAllister receives funding from Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) as a co-investigator on 'Gaza Foodways: towards resilient women-led urban agroecological food systems'. </span></em></p>Water, food, energy and fuel supplies have been severed as retaliation for Hamas’s attacks.Georgina McAllister, Assistant Professor in Stabilisation Agriculture at the Centre for Agroecology, Water & Resilience, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822692023-10-04T12:34:15Z2023-10-04T12:34:15ZThe Green Revolution is a warning, not a blueprint for feeding a hungry planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551417/original/file-20231002-15-em8fkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5310%2C3540&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer spreads fertilizer in a wheat field outside Amritsar, India.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-spreads-fertiliser-in-a-wheat-field-amid-foggy-news-photo/1231155968">Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Feeding a growing world population has been a serious concern for decades, but today there are new causes for alarm. Floods, heat waves and other weather extremes are making agriculture increasingly precarious, especially in the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/what-is-global-south-19fa68cf8c60061e88d69f6f2270d98b">Global South</a>. </p>
<p>The war in Ukraine is also a factor. Russia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-russia-pulled-out-of-its-grain-deal-with-ukraine-and-what-that-means-for-the-global-food-system-210046">blockading Ukrainian grain exports</a>, and <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-war-after-year-impacts-fertilizer-production-prices-and-trade-flows">fertilizer prices have surged</a> because of trade sanctions on Russia, the world’s leading fertilizer exporter.</p>
<p>Amid these challenges, some organizations are renewing calls for a <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/green-revolution/">second Green Revolution</a>, echoing the introduction in the 1960s and 1970s of supposedly high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice into developing countries, along with synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Those efforts centered on India and other Asian countries; today, advocates focus on <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/initiative/alliance-for-a-green-revolution-in-africa/">sub-Saharan Africa</a>, where the original Green Revolution regime never took hold.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MbBzzMh2CTk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In this Oct. 25, 2000, episode of the television drama ‘The West Wing,’ president Josiah Bartlet invokes the standard account of Green Revolution seeds saving millions from starvation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But anyone concerned with food production should be careful what they wish for. In recent years, a <a href="https://www.sbc.edu/live/files/2598-stone2019greenrevpdf">wave of new analysis</a> has spurred a critical rethinking of what Green Revolution-style farming really means for food supplies and self-sufficiency.</p>
<p>As I explain in my book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">The Agricultural Dilemma: How Not to Feed the World</a>,” the Green Revolution does hold lessons for food production today – but not the ones that are commonly heard. Events in India show why.</p>
<h2>A triumphal narrative</h2>
<p>There was a consensus in the 1960s among development officials and the public that an overpopulated Earth was heading toward catastrophe. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller, “<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/">The Population Bomb</a>,” famously predicted that nothing could stop “hundreds of millions” from starving in the 1970s. </p>
<p>India was the global poster child for this looming Malthusian disaster: Its population was booming, drought was ravaging its countryside and its imports of American wheat were climbing to levels that <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBSH">alarmed government officials in India and the U.S</a>. </p>
<p>Then, in 1967, India began distributing new wheat varieties bred by Rockefeller Foundation plant biologist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Norman-Borlaug">Norman Borlaug</a>, along with high doses of chemical fertilizer. After famine failed to materialize, observers credited the new farming strategy with <a href="https://thewire.in/agriculture/food-security-green-revolution">enabling India to feed itself</a>.</p>
<p>Borlaug received the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/biographical/">1970 Nobel Peace Prize</a> and is still widely credited with “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/globalcitizen/2023/07/23/oppenheimer-and-the-man-who-saved-1-billion-lives-tale-of-two-geniuses/?sh=397873936b26">saving a billion lives</a>.” Indian agricultural scientist M.S. Swaminathan, who worked with Borlaug to promote the Green Revolution, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2023/09/28/ms-swaminathan-india-famine-dead/">received the inaugural World Food Prize in 1987</a>. Tributes to Swaminathan, who died on Sept. 28, 2023, at age 98, have reiterated the claim that his efforts brought India “<a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/he-was-the-face-of-the-green-revolution-101695908903502.html">self-sufficiency in food production</a>” and independence from Western powers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit at a podium, speaking and gesturing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551481/original/file-20231002-15-vu3ucg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plant scientist M.S. Swaminathan, often called the father of India’s Green Revolution, speaks at a world summit on food security in Rome on Sept. 10, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-unesco-ecotechnology-director-known-as-the-father-of-news-photo/90539380">Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Debunking the legend</h2>
<p>The standard legend of India’s Green Revolution centers on two propositions. First, India faced a food crisis, with farms mired in tradition and unable to feed an exploding population; and second, Borlaug’s wheat seeds led to record harvests from 1968 on, replacing import dependence with food self-sufficiency. </p>
<p>Recent research shows that both claims are false. </p>
<p>India was importing wheat in the 1960s <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674725812">because of policy decisions</a>, not overpopulation. After the nation achieved independence in 1947, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru prioritized developing heavy industry. U.S. advisers encouraged this strategy and <a href="https://thewire.in/agriculture/green-revolution-borlaug-food-security">offered to provide India with surplus grain</a>, which India accepted as cheap food for urban workers.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the government urged Indian farmers to grow nonfood export crops to earn foreign currency. They switched millions of acres from rice to jute production, and by the mid-1960s India was <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674725812">exporting agricultural products</a>.</p>
<p>Borlaug’s miracle seeds were <a href="https://upittpress.org/books/9780822947349/">not inherently more productive</a> than many Indian wheat varieties. Rather, they just responded more effectively to high doses of chemical fertilizer. But while India had abundant manure from its cows, it produced almost no chemical fertilizer. It had to start spending heavily to import and subsidize fertilizer. </p>
<p>India did see a wheat boom after 1967, but there is evidence that this expensive new input-intensive approach was not the main cause. Rather, the Indian government established a new policy of paying higher prices for wheat. Unsurprisingly, Indian farmers <a href="https://rajpatel.org/2014/08/29/every-factoid-is-a-mystery-how-to-think-more-clearly-about-the-green-revolution-and-other-agricultural-claims/">planted more wheat</a> and less of other crops.</p>
<p>Once India’s 1965-67 drought ended and the Green Revolution began, wheat production sped up, while production trends in other crops like rice, maize and pulses <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">slowed down</a>. Net food grain production, which was much more crucial than wheat production alone, actually <a href="https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Previous_AT_Glance.htm">resumed at the same growth rate as before</a>. </p>
<p>But grain production became more erratic, forcing India to resume importing food by the mid-1970s. India also became dramatically <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Agricultural-Dilemma-How-Not-to-Feed-the-World/Stone/p/book/9781032260457">more dependent on chemical fertilizer</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing grain production in India from 1952-1982 and intensifying fertilizer use." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551478/original/file-20231002-29-mxfc9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India’s Green Revolution wheat boom came at the expense of other crops; the growth rate of overall food grain production did not increase at all. It is doubtful that the ‘revolution’ produced any more food than would have been produced anyway. What increased dramatically was dependence on imported fertilizer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Davis Stone; data from India Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Fertiliser Association of India</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to data from Indian <a href="https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Previous_AT_Glance.htm">economic</a> and <a href="https://www.faidelhi.org/statistics/statistical-database">agricultural</a> organizations, on the eve of the Green Revolution in 1965, Indian farmers needed 17 pounds (8 kilograms) of fertilizer to grow an average ton of food. By 1980, it took 96 pounds (44 kilograms). So, India replaced imports of wheat, which were virtually free food aid, with imports of fossil fuel-based fertilizer, paid for with precious international currency.</p>
<p>Today, India remains the world’s second-highest fertilizer importer, spending <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-imports-by-country/">US$17.3 billion in 2022</a>. Perversely, Green Revolution boosters call this extreme and expensive dependence “<a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/india-at-75/overcoming-food-emergencies-through-imports-from-us-via-pl480/article65753881.ece">self-sufficiency</a>.” </p>
<h2>The toll of ‘green’ pollution</h2>
<p>Recent research shows that the environmental costs of the Green Revolution are as severe as its economic impacts. One reason is that fertilizer use is astonishingly wasteful. Globally, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo325">only 17% of what is applied</a> is taken up by plants and ultimately consumed as food. Most of the rest washes into waterways, where it creates <a href="https://theconversation.com/dead-zones-are-a-global-water-pollution-challenge-but-with-sustained-effort-they-can-come-back-to-life-96077">algae blooms and dead zones</a> that smother aquatic life. Producing and using fertilizer also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w">generates copious greenhouse gases</a> that contribute to climate change.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mZ7ErNcQbuo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excess nutrients are creating dead zones in water bodies worldwide. Synthetic fertilizer is a major source.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In Punjab, India’s top Green Revolution state, heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jul/01/the-indian-state-where-farmers-sow-the-seeds-of-death">contaminated water, soil and food</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/as.2019.1010101">endangered human health</a>. </p>
<p>In my view, African countries where the Green Revolution has not made inroads should consider themselves lucky. Ethiopia offers a cautionary case. In recent years, the Ethiopian government has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-16/wheat-farming-drive-in-ethiopia-gathers-pace-as-shortages-bite#xj4y7vzkg">forced farmers to plant</a> increasing amounts of fertilizer-intensive wheat, claiming this will achieve “<a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202306230565.html">self-sufficiency</a>” and even allow it to <a href="https://borkena.com/2023/02/27/wheat-selling-as-smuggled-commodity/">export wheat worth $105 million</a> this year. Some African officials hail this strategy as an <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202306230565.html">example for the continent</a>.</p>
<p>But Ethiopia has no fertilizer factories, so it has to import it – at a cost of <a href="https://newbusinessethiopia.com/agribusiness/ethiopia-spent-one-billion-usd-for-fertilizers-import/">$1 billion just in the past year</a>. Even so, many farmers face <a href="https://addisstandard.com/analysis-fertilizer-shortage-amidst-widespread-illicit-trade-cripples-farmers-threatens-productivity/">severe fertilizer shortages</a>.</p>
<p>The Green Revolution still has many boosters today, especially among biotech companies that are eager to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150903498754">draw parallels</a> between genetically engineered crops and Borlaug’s seeds. I agree that it offers important lessons about how to move forward with food production, but actual data tells a distinctly different story from the standard narrative. In my view, there are many ways to pursue <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.03.004">less input-intensive agriculture</a> that will be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2018.05.002">more sustainable</a> in a world with an increasingly erratic climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn Davis Stone receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation.</span></em></p>Did the Green Revolution, which brought high-tech agriculture to developing nations in the 1960s, prevent famine? Recent research takes a much more skeptical view.Glenn Davis Stone, Research Professor of Environmental Science, Sweet Briar CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058472023-05-25T05:24:14Z2023-05-25T05:24:14ZWhat was behind Australia’s potato shortage? Wet weather and hard-to-control diseases<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528181/original/file-20230525-15-h10y1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C36%2C4908%2C3233&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’ve been into a fish and chip shop in the last 12 months, you may well have seen a notice tacked to the wall about the impact of the potato shortage. Supermarkets, too, slapped <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-16/potato-shortage-incredibly-challenging-for-farmers/101858424">temporary limits</a> on frozen chip purchases. </p>
<p>What was behind it? Wet weather, floods – and highly persistent fungal diseases. Growers in Tasmania were worst hit, with mainland growers in New South Wales and Victoria also hit. </p>
<p>Even 175 years after Ireland’s devastating famine caused by an <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1401884111#:%7E:text=The%20potato%20late%20blight%20pathogen,potato%20famine%20and%20subsequent%20diaspora.">introduced potato</a> blight, we’re still struggling to combat these diseases. That’s a problem, because potatoes are vital. More than a billion of us <a href="https://thegoodcarb.com.au/good-for-the-planet/#:%7E:text=More%20than%20a%20billion%20people,exceeds%20300%20million%20metric%20tons">eat them</a> regularly. They’re the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311917617362">fourth most important</a> staple food after rice, wheat and corn, and the largest non-cereal crop. </p>
<p>Diseases such as pink rot and powdery scab can live in the soil for years. They’re almost impossible to eradicate down there. When there’s a sudden pulse of water, they spread and can destroy entire fields of potatoes. </p>
<p>What we can do is be better prepared. Our research team is monitoring soil moisture and temperature levels to help us predict whether we’re likely to see an outbreak. This knowledge could let growers respond quickly with fungicide or stopping irrigation to slow or prevent a severe outbreak. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="powdery scab potato" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528180/original/file-20230525-17-gsgzbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Powdery scab disease makes potatoes look distinctly unappetising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>So what caused the shortage?</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to Christmas last year, Australia had a major <a href="https://www.potatonewstoday.com/2022/11/02/potato-supply-in-tasmania-impacted-by-wet-harvesting-conditions-growers-worried-about-planting-season">potato shortage</a>. </p>
<p>Our main growing regions in Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia were hard hit by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/it-s-official-2022-was-wet-very-wet-20230208-p5ciwd.html">flooding and heavy rain</a> due to La Niña, which created conditions ripe for potato diseases to spread. Waterlogged or diseased potatoes cannot be sold.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1612660062744633344"}"></div></p>
<p>Other issues included delays to harvesting and planting due to the weather. And the <a href="https://www.ruralbank.com.au/news/production-costs-to-bite-as-farmers-look-to-improving-conditions-in-2023/">skyrocketing costs</a> of fuel and fertiliser have forced some growers not to plant potatoes. Potatoes need a lot of fertiliser and water. </p>
<p>While you might associate these tubers with snack foods, in reality they’re <a href="https://www.hutton.ac.uk/webfm_send/743">highly nutritious</a> and an important source of complex carbohydrates. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/potatoes-deserve-to-be-a-part-of-the-super-food-family-59625">Potatoes deserve to be a part of the super-food family</a>
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<p>The way we grow them is <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle/10568/87958/CIP-Why-are-potatoes-important-English-2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">very efficient</a>. The amount of food energy we get per hectare of potatoes is many times greater than other staples like rice and wheat.</p>
<p>Stored properly, potatoes <a href="https://extension.oregonstate.edu/news/tips-keeping-harvested-potatoes-fresh#:%7E:text=%22With%20proper%20storage%2C%20well%2D,sprouting%20and%20shriveling%20may%20occur">can last</a> up to eight months. </p>
<p>Many growers find them to be one of the most profitable crops they can grow – as long as they’re prepared to face risks such as disease. </p>
<h2>What’s next for our potato sector?</h2>
<p>With the major rains at an end for now, potatoes are returning to the shelves and frozen food section. </p>
<p>But potato lovers aren’t out of the woods yet. For producers, there are still many worries. The increasing costs of production in fertiliser and other inputs. The chance of renewed heavy rainfall. And the continual battle against soil-borne disease. </p>
<p>Take Tasmania’s growers, who produce <a href="https://www.horticulture.com.au/globalassets/hort-innovation/australian-horticulture-statistics-handbook/ahsh-2021-22-vegetables-r.pdf">almost a third</a> (31%) of Australia’s potatoes. </p>
<p>Unexpectedly wet soil conditions in spring last year forced many growers to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-11-17/tasmanian-potato-season-delayed-by-wet-weather/100620382">delay planting</a> until after mid-November. </p>
<p>Planting after this date comes with a cost. It means that by the time the plants mature, Tasmania will be through summer and into cooler months, reducing available sunlight and growing temperatures. That can mean a lower yield. </p>
<p>Facing delays like this, growers often simply don’t plant a crop at all. But because of the shortages, Tasmania’s major processing companies <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7394520/coasts-spud-supply-secured-as-farmers-cut-deal-with-simplot/">offered a bonus</a> to encourage a late crop to ensure factories could keep running. </p>
<h2>The eternal fight against disease</h2>
<p>Ever since potatoes emerged from the Andes to become a global crop, growers have battled the threat of soil-borne fungal and bacterial diseases. </p>
<p>Backyard gardeners may well be familiar with some of these. If you’ve ever pulled up a potato plant only to find a half-rotten tater, you’ll know the disappointment. </p>
<p>What keeps Australian growers up at night are diseases like powdery scab, as well as rot diseases like black leg, soft rot and pink rot. </p>
<p>Powdery scab is mainly a cosmetic issue, turning nice-looking potatoes into unappetising, lesion-covered blobs. </p>
<p>But rot is real trouble. These bacteria and fungi can destroy entire fields. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="black foot rot potato" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528183/original/file-20230525-28-44uwq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Fungal rot diseases like black foot can devastate potato crops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Pink rot is heavily influenced by free water in the soil. Heavy rainfalls just before an autumn harvest have triggered <a href="https://northeasternadvertiser.com/featured-articles/potato-yield-suffers-due-to-pink-rot">major rot epidemics</a> with significant losses to growers in three of Tasmania’s last five growing seasons.</p>
<p>In severe cases, growers have to abandon fields with the tubers left to rot away, while in less severe cases there’s still substantial <a href="https://www.examiner.com.au/story/6861997/research-to-help-more-potatoes-end-up-on-plates/">loss of crop</a> and lower product quality. </p>
<p>If we see these levels of unprecedented rainfall again – as is likely with climate changes warping weather patterns – we’re like to see more potato shortages.</p>
<p>So what can growers do? For pink rot and powdery scab disease, we don’t have good options. There are a few disease-resistant varieties, but their resistance comes at the cost of desirable properties like crop yield and how well they cook. Chemical controls are limited, and if we overuse them, we risk these fungi developing resistance just as bacteria do with antibiotics. </p>
<p>Fungi and bacteria can lie dormant for many years or stay alive on other plant species between crops. That limits how effective crop rotation is as a tool. </p>
<p>Cropping land proven to be pathogen free is in very short supply. Food industries which rely on potatoes are compensating for these expected losses by contracting a greater number of growers and over-planting. </p>
<p>But it’s not a hopeless case. We and other researchers are working on it. Recently, we made a <a href="https://www.utas.edu.au/tia/news-events/news-items/2021/new-tool-provides-rapid-screening-for-powdery-scab-in-potatoes">new tool</a> to help rapidly spot powdery scab disease in new potato varieties. </p>
<p>Now we’re <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/tia/news-events/news-items/2022/agricultural-innovation-funds-to-help-deliver-benefits-to-critical-industries">working on ways</a> to track changes in soil moisture and temperature against rot and powdery scab outbreaks. This, we hope, will let us predict outbreaks before they occur. </p>
<p>Sometimes, you don’t have to defeat a disease outright. Better prediction and containment may be enough to keep us supplied with hot chips. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-driving-the-potato-chip-shortage-and-when-will-it-pass-198667">What's driving the potato chip shortage and when will it pass?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronika Thapa receives a postgraduate scholarship award from the University of Tasmania </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Wilson receives funding from Hort Innovation Pty Ltd, Simplot Australia Pty Ltd and Potatoes New Zealand.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Tegg receives funding from the University of Tasmania, Tasmanian government, Hort Innovation and private potato companies. </span></em></p>Potatoes are profitable and in demand. But wet weather and hard-to-control diseases have caused havoc for our growers.Ronika Thapa, PhD Student, University of TasmaniaCalum Wilson, Professor, University of TasmaniaRobert Tegg, Research Fellow, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960482023-01-12T21:52:19Z2023-01-12T21:52:19ZInflation bites: How rising food costs affect nutrition and health<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504330/original/file-20230112-70372-xy6ds0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C215%2C5721%2C3772&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian food prices have soared over the past year. Higher food costs can affect nutrition decisions and ultimately health.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Food for thought: rising grocery prices affect food choices and nutrition, and ultimately health, and even the health-care system.</p>
<p>As a result of inflation, the cost of food continues to soar, with data from <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000403">Statistics Canada</a> reporting the latest price changes of foods purchased from groceries stores and restaurants. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar graph of food prices" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499588/original/file-20221207-8673-jo929u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in food prices from September 2022 to October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221116/cg-a004-png-eng.htm">(Statistics Canada)</a></span>
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<p>In September, Canada experienced its largest yearly increase in foods purchased from grocery stores or restaurants (10.3 per cent). Prices for food rose slightly less in October (10 per cent), but remain <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221116/dq221116a-eng.htm">elevated</a>, with <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221221/dq221221a-eng.htm?indid=3665-1&indgeo=0">November’s increase</a> coming in at 6.8 per cent.</p>
<p>In response to this rapid inflation, many Canadians took to social media, particularly <a href="https://www.narcity.com/tiktokers-are-getting-real-about-what-inflation-looks-like-in-canadian-grocery-stores-videos">TikTok</a>, to share how much grocery shopping is costing and what they are getting for their money. </p>
<p>Canada’s recent <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/lettuce-prices-in-canada">lettuce shortage</a> has resulted in price hikes for romaine and iceberg lettuce, with many grocery stores posting signs about the shortage and imposing purchase quantity limits, while restaurants have modified their offerings and altered their menus.</p>
<h2>Why are food prices so high?</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic and other global events continue to have worldwide consequences for health and the economy, with food prices being no exception. </p>
<p>Prices are driven up in <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2022014-eng.htm?utm_source=rddt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-cpi-22-23">several ways</a>, including supply chain issues (things like processing, packaging and transportation), changes in consumer spending patterns, and previously mandated business closures forcing the redistribution of foods from restaurants to stores, as well as unfavourable growing weather conditions (things like heat waves, extreme rain/flooding, droughts and freezing).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1611694281986609153"}"></div></p>
<p>As health behaviour researchers, we believe that many Canadians will undoubtedly feel the additional financial pressure at the checkout line, and many will eat less nutritious and cheaper food options. </p>
<p>In Ottawa, the <a href="https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/public-health-topics/food-insecurity.aspx#2022-Nutritious-Food-Basket">cost of eating nutritious food</a> for a single person was estimated at $392 per month, based on data collected from May to June 2022. For a family of four, the cost jumps to $1,088 per month. </p>
<p>Undoubtedly, low-income and fixed-income households will feel the biggest pinch (especially in one-person or single-parent households) and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp.42.10.04">short- and long-term health impact</a> could add to our <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/health-care-surpasses-inflation-as-top-national-issue-of-concern-nanos-1.6176739">crippling health-care system</a>.</p>
<h2>How do rising food costs impact your health?</h2>
<p>With the rising cost of food, many Canadians are experiencing insecure or limited access to food. This can have various effects on health, such as a decrease in <a href="https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-021-00597-2">mental health</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195962">increased risk of diabetes</a>, higher rates of autoimmune and infectious diseases, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11610-1">injuries</a>. </p>
<p>Research has shown that increased household food insecurity is strongly associated with greater strain on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.150234">health-care system</a>, with greater emergency room visits, longer hospital stays, more same-day surgeries, more reliance on physician services and home care services, and higher prescription drug use. </p>
<p>Older adults may also have health conditions with specific dietary requirements. With the increase in food prices, meeting these specific dietary needs may not be possible and can lead to additional health complications.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a red apron placing canned goods on shelves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504328/original/file-20230112-27936-mwr9sg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Volunteers work at the Bathurst/Finch Community Food Space in Toronto. Inflation is putting a greater strain on food banks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Alex Lupul</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Furthermore, the higher cost of food is putting strain on <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/food-bank-canada-usage-1.6631120">food banks</a> and school food programs, like the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/nutrition-von-school-meals-inflation-1.6568430">Ontario Student Nutrition Program</a>. School food programs provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.3148/cjdpr-2018-037">support to children</a> by helping ensure their stomachs are full while promoting healthful eating practices. </p>
<p>School food programs have been shown to be beneficial for better <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jhn.12407">academic outcomes</a> and <a href="https://www.healthyschoolfood.ca/the-evidence">overall health</a> in the short term, and food choices and behaviours in children are likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/nu9090990">continue into adulthood</a>, making childhood an essential time to have access to healthy foods. Suboptimal nutrition during this stage also may interfere with <a href="https://food-guide.canada.ca/en/applying-guidelines/nutrition-considerations-children-adolescents/">optimal growth and development</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1610439351120588801"}"></div></p>
<h2>What can you do to save money?</h2>
<p>One of the most expensive things about food is food waste. According to <a href="https://www.secondharvest.ca/">Second Harvest</a>, Canada’s largest food rescue organization, the annual cost of avoidable food loss and waste in Canada was <a href="https://www.secondharvest.ca/getmedia/73121ee2-5693-40ec-b6cc-dba6ac9c6756/The-Avoidable-Crisis-of-Food-Waste-Roadmap.pdf">$1,766 per household</a>. </p>
<p>Making a meal plan for the week, with a shopping list before you go to the grocery store, is a great way to buy only what you need and ensure you use up what you’ve purchased. If you are only going to use half the produce for one meal, make sure you have a second recipe for later in the week to use it up.</p>
<p>There are several online applications, such as Flipp or Reebee, that can also help you shop sales or use coupons. Many food outlets allow price matching with other stores. Using loyalty program points is another option that can help pay for groceries. If you are a student or older adult, your local grocery store or retail drug store may offer discounts for shopping on a specific day of the week. </p>
<p>Lastly, eating with other people is not only associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7315-2_6">better diet quality</a> and <a href="https://www.cfp.ca/content/cfp/61/2/e96.full.pdf">psychosocial outcomes</a>, but may also reduce food costs, as families are only making one meal for all to enjoy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rapid increases in food prices due to inflation mean many Canadians may be making different food choices. Here are the possible short- and long-term effects of that, and some ways to save money.Sarah Woodruff, Professor, Director of the Community Health, Enviornment, and Wellness Lab, University of WindsorPaige Coyne, PhD Candidate, Department of Kinesiology, University of WindsorSheldon Fetter, PhD Student, Department of Kinesiology, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1901482022-09-20T20:20:26Z2022-09-20T20:20:26ZHalf of Western Sydney foodbowl land may have been lost to development in just 10 years<p>More and more farming land is being lost to other land uses such as housing on the outskirts of our cities. But how much land is being lost? And why does it matter?</p>
<p>Our newly published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927">research</a> used the Western Sydney region as a case study of land lost since the 2011 census, and newly released Australian Bureau of Statistic (ABS) <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files">data</a> allowed us to update our findings. While <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/main-structure-and-greater-capital-city-statistical-areas/mesh-blocks">changes</a> in ABS land-use definitions make precise comparisons difficult, Western Sydney may have lost as much as 60% of its agricultural land over the past ten years. </p>
<p>The significance of these losses is that Western Sydney has long been seen as the foodbowl of Greater Sydney. It produces <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/value-agricultural-commodities-produced-australia/latest-release">more than three-quarters</a> of the total value of agricultural produce in the metropolitan region. The city relies heavily on Western Sydney for livestock, vegetables, eggs, grapes and nuts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-best-before-food-labelling-is-not-best-for-the-planet-or-your-budget-189686">Why 'best before' food labelling is not best for the planet or your budget</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also interviewed people from different tiers of government working in Western Sydney. Our study highlights growing tensions between the New South Wales government and its attempts to manage population growth and housing pressures, and local councils and their efforts to protect food production on the city outskirts. The loss of productive land around our major cities is an increasingly urgent issue for our food security.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529731936167395334"}"></div></p>
<h2>Food systems under pressure</h2>
<p>Like many cities, Sydney is being hit by many shocks and stresses – drought, bushfires, storms, floods and the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on supply chains. This rapid succession of shocks tests the resilience of local food security. Communities face soaring food prices as part of a broader surge in costs of living. </p>
<p>A lack of political will, short-term election cycles with shifting priorities, and low public awareness have meant the importance of retaining farming land close to the city isn’t well understood. Perishable foods grown close to urban markets not only reduce transport and energy costs, and emissions, but also <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/318103">improve a city’s food security</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-had-a-taste-of-disrupted-food-supplies-here-are-5-ways-we-can-avoid-a-repeat-135822">We've had a taste of disrupted food supplies – here are 5 ways we can avoid a repeat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our study quantifies the loss of land categorised as agricultural or primary production in Western Sydney over time. Based on ABS data for land use by <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files">mesh blocks</a> (the smallest geographic areas defined by the ABS), we estimate Western Sydney lost 9% of its primary production land from 2016 to 2021. The worst-affected council areas over this period, The Hills Shire, Blacktown, Camden and Campbelltown, lost 43%, 39%, 26% and 19% respectively.</p>
<p>Changes in <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/main-structure-and-greater-capital-city-statistical-areas/mesh-blocks">ABS mesh block land-use definitions</a> (from “agriculture” in 2011 to “primary production” in 2016 and 2021), as well as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Australian+Standard+Geographical+Classification+(ASGC)">changes to mapping standards</a>, make it difficult to accurately calculate the loss of land between 2011 and 2021. However, if these land-use categories in 2011, 2016 and 2021 are assumed to be broadly comparable, we can estimate that Western Sydney lost roughly 60% of its farming land over the past ten years. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485256/original/file-20220919-14-i3mxu4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=783&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Note: estimates of losses assume the land-use categories of ‘agricultural’ in 2011 and ‘primary production’ in 2016 and 2021 are comparable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-threatening-sydneys-foodbowl-55156">Urban sprawl is threatening Sydney's foodbowl</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The pressures of growth</h2>
<p>The NSW government has historically looked to Western Sydney to accommodate Greater Sydney’s growing population. </p>
<p>The population in Western Sydney is <a href="https://pp.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/populations">estimated to increase</a> from 2.4 million residents in 2016 to 4.1 million in 2041. The Department of Planning and Environment’s latest <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Sydney-housing-supply-forecast">housing supply forecast</a> predicts the region will supply roughly 60% of Greater Sydney’s new dwellings in the period 2021-2025.</p>
<p>Attempts have been made to <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/media/Files/DPE/Reports/sydney-growth-centres-strategic-assessment-program-report-2010-11.pdf">concentrate new development</a> in two designated growth areas – the <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area/Priority-Growth-Areas-and-Precincts/North-West-Growth-Area">North-West</a> and <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area/Priority-Growth-Areas-and-Precincts/South-West-Growth-Area">South-West</a> – from 2006 onwards. These locations used to contain swathes of undeveloped <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Metropolitan-Housing-Monitors/Sydney-Greenfield-Monitor">greenfield land</a>. But local council policies to retain productive farmland have been put aside to accommodate state government growth plans. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing location of Greater Sydney's North West and South West growth centres" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485439/original/file-20220919-7117-6fc704.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greater Sydney’s designated growth areas are to the north-west and south-west of the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927#bib18">Lawton & Morrison 2022, Land Use Policy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Greater Sydney Commission (now the <a href="https://www.greatercities.au/metropolis-of-three-cities">Greater Cities Commission</a>) introduced the concept of <a href="https://gsc-public-1.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Values_of_the_Metropolitan_Rural_Area_of_the_Greater_Sydney_Region_(Ag_Econ_Plus).pdf">Metropolitan Rural Areas</a> (MRAs) to help preserve the remaining peri-urban rural land. The MRA is defined as the land uses outside the established and planned urban areas of Greater Sydney. It broadly comprises rural towns and villages, farmland, floodplains, defence land, national parks and wilderness areas. </p>
<p>Satellite imagery from our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002927">research</a>
reveals a slow but steady housing sprawl into surrounding rural land. Is the MRA concept too late to stem urban encroachment?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085">To protect fresh food supplies, here are the key steps to secure city foodbowls</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why are farmers selling up?</h2>
<p>Why is farming land disappearing? Part of the answer lies in the cost-price squeezes farmers face. Costs of farming inputs have risen, while farmgate prices have fallen because of pressure from major retailers and competition. </p>
<p>As the cost of land and farming costs increase, low returns mean many farmers consider selling up to capitalise on land speculation. We estimate price differences between rural and residential land plots of up to 200% in Western Sydney (using the NSW Valuer General <a href="https://www.valuergeneral.nsw.gov.au/land_values/where_can_you_learn_more_about_your_land_value/land_values_online">online tools</a>). </p>
<p>The potential value uplift is a big incentive for farmers to approach the council and seek land rezoning to convert their rural holdings to more profitable land uses, such as housing and other urban uses. It makes financial sense. Who can blame them?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cities-in-the-21st-century-why-urban-fringe-farming-is-vital-for-food-resilience-106162">Feeding cities in the 21st century: why urban-fringe farming is vital for food resilience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Local food production has been undervalued</h2>
<p>Our study suggests some questioning of a pro-urban growth agenda has begun. There is growing recognition of the importance of preserving agricultural and rural land on the outskirts of our major cities to help us withstand and recover from crises. </p>
<p>We are seeing shortages of essential items, supply-chain disruptions and rises in the prices of foods affected by climate-related events. These developments highlight the need to reduce dependence on distant food supplies. </p>
<p>Australian cities must find ways to maximise the sustainable use of available natural resources for more localised food production. We should also consider more carefully the role that farming land plays in other land-use functions, including flood mitigation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">What's causing Sydney's monster flood crisis – and 3 ways to stop it from happening again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p><em>Amy Lawton, consultant in the advisory team at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance at UTS, was a co-author of this article, and of the journal publication while at WESTIR Ltd.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Lawton, consultant in the advisory team at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance at UTS, was a co-author of this article, and of the journal publication while at WESTIR Ltd. Nicky Morrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Awais Piracha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Growing fresh produce on the outskirts of a city reduces food miles and increases food security. But the foodbowls next to our our big cities are fast losing their land to urban growth.Nicky Morrison, Professor of Planning and Director of Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityAwais Piracha, Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Director Academic Programs, Geography Tourism and Urban Planning, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1875892022-08-08T12:21:01Z2022-08-08T12:21:01ZRise of precision agriculture exposes food system to new threats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477469/original/file-20220803-13-8yd7pe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3224%2C2234&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Agriculture is becoming increasingly dependent on technology.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/50238208213">U.S. Department of Agriculture Photo by Lance Cheung</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Farmers are <a href="https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/sub-articles/2021/03/adoption-of-precision-agriculture-technologies/">adopting precision agriculture</a>, using data collected by GPS, satellite imagery, internet-connected sensors and other technologies to farm more efficiently. While these practices could help increase crop yields and reduce costs, the technology behind the practices is creating opportunities for extremists, terrorists and adversarial governments to attack farming machinery, with the aim of disrupting food production.</p>
<p>Food producers around the world have been under increasing pressure, a problem <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-grain-blockade-global-food-crisis-rcna25910">exacerbated by the war in Ukraine</a> and rising fuel and fertilizer costs. Farmers are trying to produce more food but with fewer resources, pushing the food production system <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/15/global-food-crisis-pandemic/">toward its breaking point</a>.</p>
<p>In this environment, it’s understandable that many U.S. farmers are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.07.005">turning to modern information technologies</a> to support decision-making and operations in managing crop production. These precision agriculture practices lead to more efficient use of land, water, fuel, fertilizer and pesticides so that farmers can grow more, reduce costs and <a href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/oc/utm/benefits-and-evolution-of-precision-agriculture/">minimize their impact on the environment</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="rows of plants growing out of black plastic bags, some with metal poles and wires holding white plastic devices attached to the plants" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477746/original/file-20220804-5517-5r07f2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Precision agriculture can include sensors that monitor crops, such as these avocado plants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Avocado_plant_monitoring_Precision_Agriculture.png">Simple loquat/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As researchers in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=_VNMFmgAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">cybersecurity</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=CH2XK2wAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">national security</a> at the <a href="https://www.unomaha.edu/ncite/index.php">National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center</a>, we see cause for concern. The advent of precision farming comes at a time of significant upheaval in the global supply chain and as the number of foreign and domestic hackers with the ability to <a href="https://www.govtech.com/security/agriculture-industry-on-alert-after-string-of-cyber-attacks">exploit this technology</a> continues to grow.</p>
<h2>New opportunities for exploitation</h2>
<p>Cyberattacks against agricultural targets are not some far-off threat; they are already happening. For example, in 2021 a ransomware attack forced a fifth of the beef processing plants in the U.S. to shut down, with one company paying nearly $11 million to cybercriminals. REvil, a Russia-based group, <a href="https://investigatemidwest.org/2021/10/13/fbi-says-ransomware-attacks-on-food-and-agriculture-industry-are-increasing/">claimed responsibility for the attack</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, a grain storage cooperative in Iowa was targeted by a Russian-speaking group called BlackMatter, who claimed that they had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/iowa-farm-services-company-reports-cybersecurity-incident-2021-09-20/">stolen data from the cooperative</a>. While previous attacks have targeted larger companies and cooperatives and aimed to extort the victims for money, individual farms could be at risk, too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="three squat cylindrical structures with conical tops connected by a pipe stand in a row perpendicular to a cluster of narrower, taller vertical cylindrical structures topped by a catwalk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477748/original/file-20220804-23-ffc4lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This grain storage facility is run by New Cooperative, a farm cooperative in Iowa that was hit by a ransomware attack in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NEW_Cooperative_facility_Knierim_Iowa_20211104.jpg">Jstuby/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The integration of technologies into farm equipment, from GPS-guided tractors to artificial intelligence, potentially increases the ability of hackers to attack this equipment. And though farmers might not be ideal targets for ransomware attacks, farms could be tempting targets for hackers with other motives, including terrorists.</p>
<p>For example, an attacker could look to exploit vulnerabilities within fertilizer application technologies, which could result in a farmer unwittingly applying too much or too little nitrogen fertilizer to a particular crop. A farmer could then end up with either a below-expected harvest, or a field that has been over fertilized, resulting in waste and long-term environmental ramifications.</p>
<h2>Slow to appreciate the threat</h2>
<p>Disruption to sensitive industries and infrastructure gives attackers higher returns for their efforts. This means that the increasing stress on the global food supply raises the stakes and creates a stronger motivation to disrupt the U.S. agriculture sector.</p>
<p>Unlike other critical industries such as <a href="https://www.aba.com/banking-topics/technology/cybersecurity">finance</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3233/THC-161263">health care</a>, the farming industry has been slow to recognize cybersecurity risks and take steps to mitigate them. There are several possible reasons for this sluggishness. </p>
<p>One is that many farmers and agricultural providers haven’t viewed cybersecurity as a significant enough problem compared with other risks they face such as floods, fires and hail. A 2018 Department of Homeland Security <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/current-activity/2018/10/03/Cybersecurity-Threats-Precision-Agriculture">report</a> that surveyed precision agriculture farmers throughout the U.S. found that many did not fully understand the cyberthreats introduced by precision agriculture, nor did they take these cyber-risks seriously enough.</p>
<p>This lack of preparedness leads to another reason: limited oversight and regulation from government. In 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture classified cybersecurity as a low priority. <a href="https://isalliance.org/sectors/agriculture/">While this classification was upgraded in 2015</a>, the farming sector is likely to be playing catch-up for years. While other critical infrastructure industries have developed and published numerous <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diin.2017.07.006">countermeasures</a> and <a href="https://www.pcisecuritystandards.org/document_library/?category=pcidss&document=pci_dss">best practices</a> for cybersecurity, the same cannot be said for the farming sector. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has indicated that it is willing to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/video/events/agriculture-secretary-tom-vilsack-on-food-farming-and-climate-change/3D9C4481-4197-4672-B263-D0483DC007E3.html">help farmers take steps to protect their cyber infrastructure</a>, but as of this writing it has not released public guidelines to assist with this effort. </p>
<h2>All-hands approach</h2>
<p>In addition to the pressing need for policy guidance and resources from federal, state and local governments to prevent this type of cyberattack, there is room for academia and industry to step up. </p>
<p>From an academic research perspective, multidisciplinary efforts that bring together researchers from precision agriculture, robotics, cybersecurity and political science can help identify potential solutions. To this end, we and researchers at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln have launched the <a href="https://www.unomaha.edu/news/2022/06/grispos-cybersecurity-testbed.php">Security Testbed for Agricultural Vehicles and Environments</a>. </p>
<p>Farming equipment manufacturers and other industry organizations can help by designing and engineering equipment to account for cybersecurity considerations. This would lead to the manufacture of farming equipment that not only maximizes food production yields but also minimizes exposure to cyberattacks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Austin C. Doctor receives funding from the Department of Homeland Security. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Grispos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bringing advanced technologies to the ancient practice of farming could help feed the world’s growing population, but it could also open the door for people looking to disrupt the global food system.George Grispos, Assistant Professor of Cybersecurity, University of Nebraska OmahaAustin C. Doctor, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1868092022-08-02T14:08:41Z2022-08-02T14:08:41ZSubsidies for African farmers: we’ve designed a tool to guide spending decisions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475680/original/file-20220722-19-e8b83d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C26%2C4443%2C2926&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Algorithm can help farmers and governments make smart farming decisions.
Photo by Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-harvest-maize-from-his-farm-after-relocating-to-a-news-photo/1234769628?adppopup=true">from www,gettyimages.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the hardest decisions a government must make is who to support with the limited public funds at its disposal. In recent years the largest countries in sub-Saharan Africa have spent between <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919217308618">14% and 26%</a> of combined annual public expenditures on agriculture. </p>
<p>This reflects the fact that governments have prioritised access to fertiliser for rural smallholders.</p>
<p>The purpose of the programmes is to support smallholders so they can supply the growing food needs of the continent. However, governments’ budgets are limited and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/fertilizer-prices-expected-remain-higher-longer#:%7E:text=Fertilizer%20prices%20have%20risen%20nearly,and%20export%20restrictions%20(China).">fertiliser prices are increasing</a>. </p>
<p>As fertiliser programmes become more costly, what should governments do? </p>
<p>In a recently <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00493-z">published paper</a> I set out to answer this question with two of my colleagues, Ellen McCullough at the University of Georgia and Julianne Quinn at the University of Virginia.</p>
<p>We designed a tool that can support decisions about fertiliser use across sub-Saharan Africa. We did this by focusing on a farmer’s internal rate of return from using fertiliser. The concept of a farmer’s returns is complicated because growing crops is inherently uncertain. Farmers must plant seeds and use fertiliser before they know how good the weather will be or what price they will get for their harvest.</p>
<p>Our model accommodates these complexities by applying machine learning algorithms to data on maize crop trials, weather and soil. </p>
<p>Our hope is that the support tool we have designed helps governments answer tough questions such as who to target – and how – when budgetary resources are limited. </p>
<p>We believe that better targeted policies can improve food security across the continent. </p>
<h2>What we built</h2>
<p>To model the yield response to fertiliser we compiled numerous maize trial data sets spanning 17 countries over 13 years and eight agroecological zones. </p>
<p>We matched all 21,000 of our trial observations with their corresponding growing conditions, like temperatures and precipitation in the months following planting. We also matched them with a newly available geospatial data set of soil characteristics (<a href="http://africasoils.net/">Africa Soil Information Service</a>). </p>
<p>Next, we modelled the yield response to these climate and site characteristics. We used this model to simulate the returns on investing in fertiliser across sub-Saharan Africa’s maize-growing regions. </p>
<p>We found that on average, use of fertiliser results in a 1,800 kg/ha increase in maize yields. But the response varied considerably from year to year and within and between locations. </p>
<p>Armed with these yield responses, we modelled site level farmer profitability across sub-Saharan Africa. The model simulated weather variables that influence maize yield response to fertiliser, and fertiliser and maize prices that influence profitability. </p>
<p>This allowed us to estimate how investing in fertiliser would affect returns in simulated years across maize-growing locations in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<h2>A decision support tool to assist policy makers</h2>
<p>Often, high-level decisions about fertiliser subsidies are made by looking at average profits. In other words, if an investment returns a certain amount over a span of years, it is an acceptable investment. </p>
<p>But we propose that decision makers view the decision differently. </p>
<p>We determined which regions were “robustly profitable”. We defined these as areas achieving at least a 30% return on investment in at least 70% of the years. (Decision makers could insert different thresholds into the model if they desired.) </p>
<p>These would be the regions where promoting fertiliser to smallholder farmers would make the most sense. </p>
<p>We compared these regions with those defined to be profitable based on a “naive” definition of an average of 30% over all years. This definition is commonly used in the literature and is often the basis of blanket fertiliser recommendations. But it ignores how frequently farmers may face returns below a threshold and therefore be unwilling to take on the risk of the investment.</p>
<p>In about 25% of locations in sub-Saharan Africa our “robust profitability” criteria produced a different profitability assessment than the business-as-usual approach of focusing on average returns. </p>
<p>But what about rising fertiliser prices?</p>
<p>We analysed sensitivity by changing each of the variables in the yield and profitability model. For example, we adjusted certain inputs, such as the price of fertiliser, pH of the soil and the amount of precipitation. </p>
<p>The purpose of an exercise like this is to understand which factors affect profitability the most. If changes in precipitation produce the greatest change in profitability at a particular site, then investments in irrigation may be the best policy for that location. </p>
<p>If soil characteristics are most limiting, then investing in soil health might be the most effective intervention. </p>
<p>In areas where the crop to fertiliser price ratio is the factor that controls profitability the most, subsidising fertilisers could be the most helpful policy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The African map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1: (a) Regions of sub-Saharan Africa where fertiliser adoption for maize is robustly profitable (rate of return exceeds 30% in at least 70% of simulated years), naively profitable (rate of return at least 30% on average over all simulated years), both, or neither. (b) Most important factor influencing fertiliser profitability for maize throughout sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 1b shows the geographic distribution of what factor was the most important for farmer profitability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Figure adapted from McCullough et al. (2022)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many regions are most sensitive to prices (green in Figure 1b). But these tend to be the same regions that are already robustly profitable and probably don’t need additional fertiliser subsidies. </p>
<p>Regions that are never profitable (red areas in Figure 1a) tend to be the most sensitive to soil pH (orange in Figure 1b). Soil amendments – such as liming – may be the most effective policy response in these areas. </p>
<p>Precipitation does not show up as the most important factor in any region in Figure 1b. This is not to say that precipitation is not important. But, at sites where fertiliser use is never profitable, changes in soil variables could more readily influence profitability than changes in precipitation. </p>
<p>This may be due to the way soil variables interact with precipitation to influence maize yield response to fertiliser. Fortunately these effects can be achieved first by changing the soil rather than through irrigation. </p>
<p>Farming is a complicated and uncertain endeavour. The tool we designed helps decision makers juggle these complexities. Understanding which factors affect the robust profitability of farmers the most will – hopefully – lead to a better distribution of resources and food security outcomes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research presented here was funded by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the National Science Foundation Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT) program.</span></em></p>Algorithms can help determine what farm inputs and policies can boost food production.Andrew M. Simons, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Fordham University, Fordham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795192022-03-24T16:41:23Z2022-03-24T16:41:23ZA food crisis was brewing even before the Ukraine war – but taking these three steps could help the most vulnerable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453858/original/file-20220323-21-1i0jo47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C0%2C4013%2C3017&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Queues for milk in Colombo, Sri Lanka, where shortages were evident months before the Ukraine crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the disruption, by sanctions or war, of two of the world’s largest grain exporters. This means 2022 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the global food system.</p>
<p>Yet there were concerns that this system was creaking at the seams as far back as 2007. At that time there were <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00345.x">steeply rising food prices</a> driven by rising oil prices, explosive demand for corn-based biofuels, high shipping costs, financial market speculation, low grain reserves, severe weather disruptions in some major grain producers, and a swathe of nervy trade policies leading to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306919210001065">further shocks that worsened the problem</a>. </p>
<p>The World Food Program’s director general described it as a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/burkina-faso/wfp-chief-calls-support-combat-perfect-storm-over-africas-rural-poor">“perfect storm”</a> Prices spiked again in 2011-12 before gradually receding.</p>
<p>In retrospect, those storms might now appear temperate in comparison to that we face in 2022. Even before the current crisis unfolded, <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-will-russias-invasion-ukraine-affect-global-food-security">food</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-how-the-global-fertiliser-shortage-is-going-to-affect-food-179061">fertiliser</a>, oil and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-crisis-in-container-ships-could-ruin-christmas-166297">shipping costs</a> were rising steeply. </p>
<p>The FAO cereal price index showed prices hit their 2008 level in 2021, and since the invasion they have exploded. Between 2019 and March 2022, cereal prices increased by 48%, fuel prices by 86% and fertiliser prices by 35%.</p>
<p>Here are three factors that we think make the situation in 2022 much worse, and three measures that could help prevent a global food supply system collapse.</p>
<h2>The poor are still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis</h2>
<p>Back in early 2008, both the developed and the developing world had just experienced an unprecedented period of rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, in some cases after decades of stagnation. The global financial crisis of 2007-08 only briefly halted growth in the developing world. Many governments and international institutions recognised the need to re-invest in agriculture, and found resources to do so.</p>
<p>But fast-forward to 2022, and the world has not yet recovered from the tailwinds of the COVID-19 pandemic, the worst economic crisis since the second world war. There are no truly rigorous estimates of COVID’s impact on global poverty, but the World Bank has estimated that 2020 saw an extra <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-turning-corner-pandemic-2021">97 million people thrown into poverty</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing previous price spikes of fuel, fertiliser and food." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454222/original/file-20220324-17-1bi60dt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food, fuel and fertiliser prices versus GDP growth in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">FAO/IMF/World Bank</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Household surveys and economic models consistently find that the pandemic had the <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/publication/impacts-covid-19-global-poverty-food-security-and-diets">most severe economic impact on the urban poor</a>, while agriculture and the rural economy remained remarkably resilient to lockdowns and other demand shocks. Higher food prices may even have had a <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25701">poverty-reducing effect</a> in rural areas. But the urban poor lose out and, after two years of turmoil, are being hit hard again, now by food price inflation.</p>
<h2>Cash-strapped governments have little room to manoeuvre</h2>
<p>Both developed and developing economies are weaker today than in 2008. To their credit, governments in the developing world provided <a href="https://socialprotection.org/discover/publications/social-protection-and-jobs-responses-covid-19-real-time-review-country">unprecedented protection for households and businesses</a> and <a href="https://blogs.adb.org/blog/your-service-indonesia-s-government-agencies-look-digital-innovations-amid-covid-19">digital innovations for reaching the poor</a> during the pandemic. </p>
<p>But as a result, many economies face large debt burdens relative to national income, as well as growing deficits, weak exchange rates, uncertain near-term economic growth prospects, and foreign investors and development partners that are also short of cash. </p>
<p>Africa is undoubtedly one of the most vulnerable regions. North Africa is a huge net importer of wheat, most of which comes from Russia and Ukraine, so it faces a <a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-a-serious-threat-to-egypt-the-worlds-largest-wheat-importer-179242">particularly acute food crisis</a>. Sub-Saharan Africa is predominantly rural, but its growing urban populations are relatively poor and more likely to consume imported grains. </p>
<p>Farmers in many parts of Africa are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/farms-are-failing-as-fertilizer-prices-drive-up-cost-of-food-11642770182">struggling to access fertilisers</a>, even at inflated prices, due to shipping and foreign exchange problems. Exorbitantly high costs will erode farmers’ profits and could reduce incentives to increase production, dampening the poverty-reduction benefits of higher food prices. </p>
<p>Countries already affected by conflict and climate change are exceptionally vulnerable. War-ravaged Yemen is heavily dependent on imported grains. Northern Ethiopia is one of the poorest regions on Earth, facing ongoing conflict and a humanitarian crisis. And Madagascar was slammed by successive tropical storms and cyclones in January and February, leaving its food system broken. </p>
<p>In Afghanistan, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-faces-return-to-highest-maternal-mortality-rates-/6474248.html">child mortality rates are soaring</a> due to the collapse of the economy and basic health services. Myanmar’s GDP shrunk by 18% after the military coup in February 2021, and food prices <a href="https://myanmar.ifpri.info/2021/10/14/monitoring-the-agri-food-system-in-myanmar-food-vendors-july-2021/">have since increased by 19%</a>. </p>
<h2>A crisis with no end yet in sight</h2>
<p>The 2007-08 food crisis was relatively short lived, and the global food system responded swiftly with increased supply. But who can say with any confidence whether the effects of the Ukraine crisis on food, fuel and fertiliser prices will end any time soon? </p>
<p>Russia and Ukraine account for <a href="https://www.fao.org/director-general/news/news-article/en/c/1476480/">more than 30% of global grain exports</a>, Russia alone provides <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2018/tradeflow/Exports/partner/WLD/product/310210">13% of global fertiliser</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/director-general/news/news-article/en/c/1476480">11% of oil exports</a>, and Ukraine supplies <a href="https://www.fao.org/director-general/news/news-article/en/c/1476480">half of the world’s sunflower oil</a>. In combination, this is huge a supply shock to the global food system, and a protracted war in Ukraine and the growing isolation of Russia’s economy could keep food, fuel and fertiliser prices high for years.</p>
<h2>Three things that can be done</h2>
<p>What can be done to buffer the worst impacts of this crisis?</p>
<p>First, major grain producers must do everything they can to increase food supply: resolve logistical bottlenecks, release stocks and resist the urge to impose food export restrictions. In particular <a href="https://asean.org/about-asean/member-states/">south-east Asian countries</a> must band together and avoid avoid the crisis spreading to rice markets through trade restrictions.</p>
<p>Second, in the short term the world needs oil-producing nations – often huge net importers of food – to increase fuel supplies to help bring down fuel, fertiliser and shipping costs. This will benefit the entire global food system. Oil exporters can also step in to increase foreign assistance, especially for humanitarian aid. But in the long term we need to reduce global dependence on fossil fuels, including in agriculture.</p>
<p>Third, governments, international institutions and even the private sector must offer social protection via food or financial aid. The pandemic’s effects hit the poor and vulnerable hard, and for much longer than expected. </p>
<p>Despite their sometimes dire fiscal circumstances, governments must again reach deep into their treasuries to reinvigorate this protection – and the international community must help them. There is simply no other alternative for averting a humanitarian disaster that will hit the developing world hard this year, and conceivably well in to years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Food, fuel and fertiliser prices were rising fast even before war broke out. We need to act now to avoid a humanitarian crisis.Derek Headey, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Kalle Hirvonen, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Research Fellow, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658672022-03-01T13:37:54Z2022-03-01T13:37:54ZWhat you eat can reprogram your genes – an expert explains the emerging science of nutrigenomics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442404/original/file-20220124-23298-1b8yqek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5700%2C3754&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Along with calories and nutrients, food can influence the genetic blueprints that shape who you are.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/cropped-image-of-hands-preparing-food-on-table-royalty-free-image/664647131?adppopup=true">Maskot via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/lo-que-usted-come-puede-reprogramar-sus-genes-un-experto-explica-la-ciencia-emergente-de-la-nutrigenomica-202423">Leer en español.</a> </p>
<p>People typically think of food as calories, energy and sustenance. However, the latest evidence suggests that food also “talks” to our genome, which is the genetic blueprint that directs the way the body functions down to the cellular level. </p>
<p>This communication between food and genes may affect your <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tibs.2020.04.002">health, physiology and longevity</a>. The idea that food delivers important messages to an animal’s genome is the focus of a field known as <a href="https://www.cancer.gov/publications/dictionaries/cancer-terms/def/nutrigenomics">nutrigenomics</a>. This is a discipline still in its infancy, and many questions remain cloaked in mystery. Yet already, we researchers have learned a great deal about how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tibs.2020.04.002">food components affect the genome</a>.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/dus-lab/">molecular biologist</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MbZxwzMAAAAJ&hl=en">researches the interactions</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tem.2020.11.011">among food</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuint.2021.105099">genes</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2021.746299">brains</a> in the effort to better understand how food messages affect our biology. The efforts of scientists to decipher this transmission of information could one day result in healthier and happier lives for all of us. But until then, nutrigenomics has unmasked at least one important fact: Our <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmKPgBoCgKU">relationship with food is far more intimate</a> than we ever imagined. </p>
<h2>The interaction of food and genes</h2>
<p>If the idea that food can drive biological processes by interacting with the genome sounds astonishing, one need look no further than a beehive to find a proven and perfect example of how this happens. Worker bees labor nonstop, are sterile and live only a few weeks. The queen bee, sitting deep inside the hive, has a life span that lasts for years and a fecundity so potent she gives birth to an entire colony. </p>
<p>And yet, worker and queen bees are genetically identical organisms. They become two different life forms because of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153069">food they eat</a>. The queen bee feasts on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10093">royal jelly</a>; worker bees feed on nectar and pollen. Both foods provide energy, but royal jelly has an extra feature: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/embor.2011.9">its nutrients can unlock the genetic instructions</a> to create the anatomy and physiology of a queen bee. </p>
<p>So how is food translated into biological instructions? Remember that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tibs.2020.04.002">food is composed of macronutrients</a>. These include carbohydrates – or sugars – proteins and fat. Food also contains micronutrients such as vitamins and minerals. These compounds and their breakdown products can trigger <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tem.2020.11.011">genetic switches that reside in the genome</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two shopping carts lined up, one filled with fruits and vegetables, the other with sweets and high-fat foods." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444859/original/file-20220207-25-1ick4pa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The field of nutrigenomics aims to decipher how different types of foods transmit different – and important – messages to our cells.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/healthy-vs-unhealthy-shopping-trolleys-royalty-free-image/108821364?adppopup=true">Peter Dazeley/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Like the switches that control the intensity of the light in your house, genetic switches determine how much of a certain gene product is produced. Royal jelly, for instance, contains compounds that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/embor.2011.9">activate genetic controllers</a> to form the queen’s organs and sustain her reproductive ability. In humans and mice, byproducts of the amino acid methionine, which are abundant in meat and fish, are known to influence genetic dials that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tibs.2020.04.002">important for cell growth and division</a>. And vitamin C plays a role in keeping us healthy by <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2021.675780">protecting the genome from oxidative damage</a>; it also promotes the function of cellular pathways that can repair the genome if it does get damaged.</p>
<p>Depending on the type of nutritional information, the genetic controls activated and the cell that receives them, the messages in food can influence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrm4048">wellness, disease risk and even life span</a>. But it’s important to note that to date, most of these studies have been conducted in animal models, like bees. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the ability of nutrients to alter the flow of genetic information can span across generations. Studies show that in humans and animals, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jmedgenet-2014-102577">the diet of grandparents</a> influences the activity of genetic switches and the disease risk and mortality of grandchildren. </p>
<h2>Cause and effect</h2>
<p>One interesting aspect of thinking of food as a type of biological information is that it gives new meaning to the idea of a food chain. Indeed, if our bodies are influenced by what we have eaten – down to a molecular level – then what the food we consume “ate” also could affect our genome. For example, compared to milk from grass-fed cows, the milk from grain-fed cattle has different amounts and types of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2891-9-10">fatty acids and vitamins C and A </a>. So when humans drink these different types of milk, their cells also receive different nutritional messages. </p>
<p>Similarly, a human mother’s diet changes the levels of fatty acids as well as vitamins such as B-6, B-12 and folate that are found in her breast milk. This could alter the type of nutritional messages reaching the baby’s own genetic switches, although whether or not this has an effect on the child’s development is, at the moment, unknown. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smiling young girl drinking a glass of milk through a straw." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444867/original/file-20220207-69470-1qxu7h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food information derived from animals – such as cow’s milk – is transferred to the person drinking the milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girl-drinking-milk-royalty-free-image/75939350?adppopup=true">Image Source/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And, maybe unbeknownst to us, we too are part of this food chain. The food we eat doesn’t tinker with just the genetic switches in our cells, but also with those of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1223813">the microorganisms living in our guts, skin and mucosa</a>. One striking example: In mice, the breakdown of short-chain fatty acids by gut bacteria <a href="https://doi.org/10.1096/fj.14-259598">alters the levels of serotonin</a>, a brain chemical messenger that regulates mood, anxiety and depression, among other processes.</p>
<h2>Food additives and packaging</h2>
<p>Added ingredients in food can also alter the flow of genetic information inside cells. Breads and cereals <a href="https://doi.org/10.3945/an.114.007443">are enriched with folate</a> to prevent birth defects caused by deficiencies of this nutrient. But some scientists hypothesize that high levels of folate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/87.3.517">in the absence of other naturally occurring micronutrients</a> such as vitamin B-12 could contribute to the higher incidence of colon cancer in Western countries, possibly by affecting the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqaa259">genetic pathways that control growth</a>. </p>
<p>This could also be true with chemicals found in food packaging. Bisphenol A, or BPA, a compound found in plastic, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbi.2011.02.005">turns on genetic dials</a> in mammals that are critical to development, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms21165761">growth and fertility</a>. For example, some researchers suspect that, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1541-4337.12388">in both humans and animal models</a>, BPA influences the age of sexual differentiation and decreases fertility by making genetic switches more likely to turn on.</p>
<p>All of these examples point to the possibility that the genetic information in food could arise not just from its molecular composition – the amino acids, vitamins and the like – but also from the agricultural, environmental and economic policies of a country, or the lack of them.</p>
<p>Scientists have only recently begun decoding these genetic food messages and their role in health and disease. We researchers still don’t know precisely how nutrients act on genetic switches, what their rules of communication are and how the diets of past generations influence their progeny. Many of these studies have so far been done only in animal models, and much remains to be worked out about what the interactions between food and genes mean for humans. </p>
<p>What is clear though, is that unraveling the mysteries of nutrigenomics is likely to empower both present and future societies and generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Dus receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Health, the Sloan Foundation, the Rita Allen Foundation, and the Klingenstein Foundation. She is affiliated with The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. She is on the Advisory Board for the Trends in Endocrinology & Metabolism journal, the Editorial Board for the Chemical Senses journal, and the Advisory Board for the University of Michigan Museum of Natural History.</span></em></p>Scientists are just beginning to decode the genetic messages in your food – and how that may affect your health.Monica Dus, Associate Professor of Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1745982022-01-12T16:44:23Z2022-01-12T16:44:23ZRelax, Australia does not have (and isn’t likely to have) a food shortage<p>Australia does not have a food shortage. Supply has been disrupted in some locations due to staff absences caused by COVID, that’s all.</p>
<p>This is primarily a distribution problem, not a lack of food problem. Meat shortages may emerge (abattoirs are <a href="https://theconversation.com/treating-workers-like-meat-what-weve-learnt-from-covid-19-outbreaks-in-abattoirs-145444">notorious COVID hot spots</a>) but there are plenty of other types of food awaiting distribution. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, in places where large numbers of truck drivers and warehouse workers have the virus or are required to isolate, some food is not getting to stores.</p>
<p>The good news is that food supply chains are flexible and adjust quickly, meaning current shortages are likely a temporary inconvenience rather than an ongoing problem.</p>
<p>I was lead author for a detailed analysis of <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/ag-food/food/national-food-plan/submissions-received/resilience-food-supply.pdf">resilience of the Australian food chain</a> for the agriculture department in 2012. It remains relevant.</p>
<p>A key finding was that while our food supply chains were highly resilient, they were potentially vulnerable if two or more different disruptions (such as a natural disaster, pandemic or biosecurity emergency) occured simultaneously.</p>
<h2>Food isn’t supplied just-in-time</h2>
<p>In this regard Australia has been lucky. We are not currently experiencing major natural disasters – nothing comparable to Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 or Brisbane floods of 2010-11 – in addition to COVID.</p>
<p>Cybersecurity in the food supply chain remains robust, as does plant and animal health. If the luck holds, our current shortages will be localised and temporary.</p>
<p>Moreover, some of the weaknesses identified in the 2012 report have been addressed since. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-revealed-flaws-in-our-food-supply-it-gives-us-a-chance-to-fix-them-159642">COVID revealed flaws in our food supply. It gives us a chance to fix them</a>
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<p>For example, we are less reliant on imports for packaging materials, we are better at getting food to north Queensland, and our different levels of government communicate better on food security issues.</p>
<p>However other weaknesses persist, including low levels of what the report called “food literacy” (that is, understanding among consumers of how to prepare food and what foods can substitute for other foods).</p>
<p>This means people can perceive shortages even when food is well supplied.</p>
<p>And aspects of the supply chain remain poorly understood. A common misconception is that wholesalers and retailers operate on a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/supermarket-shortages-are-different-this-time-how-to-respond-and-avoid-panic-174529">just-in-time</a>” basis. They don’t.</p>
<h2>Warehouses hold large stocks</h2>
<p>The just-in-time concept, used in Japan’s car industry, reduces holdings of parts and spares in a factory to a minimum and delivers components from suppliers to assembly lines just as they are required, minimising storage costs.</p>
<p>Food retailers would face big risks if they adopted such an approach, and they know it.</p>
<p>Stock outages upset customers. Supermarkets aim to have enough goods on their shelves not to risk losing their customers to competitors, although not so many as to cause wastage. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-reduce-your-food-waste-at-home-here-are-the-6-best-evidence-based-ways-to-do-it-168561">Food waste</a> is already a big problem in Australia, costly and a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Extra stocking would make it worse.</p>
<h2>Holding more would waste more</h2>
<p>The same applies to warehouses. Retailers want ready access to restocking from nearby warehouses, especially if there is a run on a particular food product.</p>
<p>Australian warehouses maintain large stocks to cover these eventualities.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440373/original/file-20220112-25-itbktx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1219&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s toilet paper shortage didn’t last long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>It is true that even these can come under strain when stories about shortages become self-fulfilling by encouraging panic buying. </p>
<p>Fortunately, Australia’s experience (remember 2020 toilet paper panic) is these panics do not last long.</p>
<p>While panics are underway food outages are indeed worrying for consumers. </p>
<p>The current ones may last a while – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-10/two-to-three-weeks-of-supermarket-supply-disruptions-ahead/100747880">two to three</a> weeks according to Woolworths chief Brad Banducci. </p>
<p>There could be others in future if more virulent and contagious COVID-19 variants emerge. But these problems are driven not by <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/abares/products/insights/australian-food-security-and-COVID-19#empty-supermarket-shelves-reflect-an-unexpected-surge-in-demand-as-consumers-stockpile-food-taking-supply-chains-by-surprise">insufficient food</a> but by too few staff to move it.</p>
<h2>What should we do when empty shelves emerge?</h2>
<p>One <a href="https://theconversation.com/supermarket-shortages-are-different-this-time-how-to-respond-and-avoid-panic-174529">suggestion</a> for how to respond to the possibility of empty shelves is that people buy three weeks’ food supply (based on the length of past supermarket crises). It might work for some, but it would be counterproductive for others. </p>
<p>If people don’t know what three weeks of food looks like, or make poor choices, the likely result is more waste. </p>
<p>Try it with lettuce, bean sprouts or fish, and see how it holds up after three weeks. </p>
<p>For the many low-income households who buy what they can afford on a day to day basis, three weeks supply of food is out of reach.</p>
<p>A more straightforward approach is to adapt, innovate and shop around. </p>
<h2>Try substitution</h2>
<p>Most foods have substitutes. Noodles substitute for rice and vice versa. Beans can replace meat. Beans are cheaper, more sustainable and more likely to be more available.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440375/original/file-20220112-23-hkwls5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Beans can replace meat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
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<p>There are different supply chains for different types of food. Fresh and frozen vegetables, for example, come from different sources on different trucks. </p>
<p>Unless all the drivers on all the routes are sick or isolating, substituting fresh for frozen (or vice versa) ensures we still have food.</p>
<p>And different shops have different supply chains, Asian grocers and farmers markets among them. </p>
<p>Small suppliers with their own networks and produce are likely to see the woes of the big supermarkets as an <a href="https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/7576676/food-supply-chaos-hits-local-businesses-but-some-say-theres-a-solution/?cs=12">opportunity</a>.</p>
<p>There is little role for governments other than to continue vaccination and public health measures. </p>
<p>At this point, the sensible approach is to wait to see how Australia’s historically robust systems respond. </p>
<p>In the longer term governments could help by commissioning a new independent and rigorous analysis of supply chain vulnerabilities (the one I led was in 2012) and ensuring the lessons from COVID form part of it.</p>
<p>Who knows, it might be ready for when the next crisis hits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia has a short-term distribution problem, not a lack of food problem, and most foods have substitutes.Stephen Bartos, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596422021-06-22T20:01:31Z2021-06-22T20:01:31ZCOVID revealed flaws in our food supply. It gives us a chance to fix them<p>Since COVID hit, many Australians have seen first-hand what shocks to the food system can do.</p>
<p>Uncertainty around panic-buying, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/2020/mar/27/ive-never-seen-it-like-this-why-vegetables-are-so-expensive-in-australia-at-the-moment">food supply and pricing</a> have thrown our national food system into the spotlight. And it was already under <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724">extreme pressure</a> from climate change and prolonged drought.</p>
<p>The pandemic has revealed vulnerabilities in the Australian food system, but it also presents an opportunity to make it more resilient. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-covid-lockdown-reminds-us-how-many-rely-on-food-charity-heres-how-we-plan-for-the-next-inevitable-crisis-160777">Victoria's COVID lockdown reminds us how many rely on food charity. Here's how we plan for the next inevitable crisis</a>
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<h2>Global ructions, local effects</h2>
<p>Australia produces enough fresh food to feed the nation. In fact, <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/food">more than 90%</a> of the fresh food sold in supermarkets is produced here. </p>
<p>However, the pandemic and its effects on <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/03/20/sp-global-economy-2021-prospects-and-challenges">global economies</a> has made it hard, at times, to maintain the <a href="https://apps.who.int/gb/statements/WHA73/PDF/UNSCN.pdf">supply of food</a> we are used to due to workforce and logistics issues. </p>
<p>In particular, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-01-02/some-farmers-despair-as-seasonal-worker-crisis-rages-on/13026108">agricultural workforce shortages</a> resulting from international border closures continue to threaten supply of fruit and vegetables, and may also affect <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/horticulture-giants-warn-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-could-rise-due-to-labour-shortage-20200729-p55gll.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0G0Q2aF11A6wcgaP8yFLPE5nWUvF0Bk4dbjRK337YDm-N4bm_j1hiE4lk#Echobox=1596075877">price stability</a>.</p>
<h2>Food insecurity</h2>
<p>Before the pandemic, <a href="https://www.foodbank.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Foodbank-Hunger-Report-2019.pdf">more than 20% of Australians</a> were estimated to be experiencing food insecurity. Since COVID, food insecurity <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/record-1-4-million-people-relying-on-food-charity-as-recession-bites-20200701-p55821.html">has increased</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>In Victoria, household budget pressures during the first lockdown forced one in four families to <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/media-and-resources/media-releases/budget-strain-sees-families-turn-to-unhealthy-food">live without healthy food</a>. </p>
<p>Food insecurity can worsen diet quality and increase the risk of various health conditions, including <a href="https://academic.oup.com/heapro/article/33/5/812/3852249">excess weight, obesity</a> and <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ResourceCentre/Life-and-Health-Re-imagined---Paper-2---Good-food-for-all.pdf">diabetes</a>. These conditions also put people at <a href="https://nutritionconnect.org/resource-center/five-covid-19-reflections-food-system-perspectives-and-how-we-could-take-action">increased risk</a> of getting very sick or dying from COVID-19.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1243165808378798080"}"></div></p>
<p>Unhealthy diets are a leading cause of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/double-burden-malnutrition">poor health</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673619300418">death</a> worldwide, so the rising number of people without sufficient access to healthy diets should ring alarm bells for anyone interested in the health of Australians.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-its-not-just-a-lack-of-control-that-makes-australians-overweight-heres-whats-driving-our-unhealthy-food-habits-162512">No, it’s not just a lack of control that makes Australians overweight. Here’s what’s driving our unhealthy food habits</a>
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<p>But along with these newly exposed vulnerabilities, there are many examples of agility and resilience across the Australian food system.</p>
<p>The agriculture sector has successfully <a href="https://ceat.org.au/the-effects-of-covid-19-on-australian-agriculture/">shifted many businesses online</a>. <a href="https://chuffed.org/project/movingfeast">Charities in Victoria</a> moved quickly to provide culturally appropriate food to communities in lockdown. </p>
<p>And the federal government has provided significant support to older people isolating at home, including roughly <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/meals-on-wheels-programs-reinforced-to-help-senior-australians-at-home">A$50 million</a> for the “Meals on Wheels” program. There’s also been extra <a href="https://farmhub.org.au/">targeted support to farmers</a>.</p>
<h2>An opportunity for a coordinated approach</h2>
<p>The COVID pandemic has forced many of us to appreciate the complexity and scale of the food production and distribution system in Australia. </p>
<p>Yet Australia currently <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/food/publications">lacks a national food policy</a>, leaving us <a href="https://www.humanfuture.net/reports/report-the-need-for-strategic-food-policy-in-australia/">vulnerable</a> to future shocks and limiting our capacity to protect vulnerable groups.</p>
<p><a href="https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/134333">Integrated policy</a> with buy-in of government sectors and portfolios beyond health (such as business, trade, agriculture, economics, and education), can <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/ca2079en/CA2079EN.pdf">maximise the economic, social, nutritional and environmental outcomes of our food system</a>.</p>
<p>We need to encourage innovation and coordination between national, state, and local government levels to support food supply systems that deliver healthy food across the population. </p>
<p>We have already seen it’s possible to make significant policy changes to strengthen food systems in time of crisis. For example, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission temporarily relaxed anti-collusion rules for big supermarkets during the pandemic, so they could coordinate to “ensure essential supplies get through to vulnerable and isolated people”, as one media <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/woolworths-coles-move-online-delivery-to-war-footing-539742">report</a> put it.</p>
<h2>A more resilient food system</h2>
<p>In Australia, an integrated policy could help make our food system more resilient in the face of future shocks. </p>
<p>Perhaps the pandemic provides an opportunity for us to stop and take stock of what worked well, what didn’t, and where the biggest impact could be made. </p>
<p>For example, we could consider introducing food distribution warehouses in remote Australia so these communities can get healthy, minimally processed foods at affordable prices, even in times of crisis. </p>
<p>Lawmakers should place food security and access to nutritious food at the heart of agriculture, fisheries and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1753-6405.2012.00823.x">trade policies</a>. </p>
<p>We need to ensure nutrition is prioritised in any pandemic response efforts. One approach, advocated by researchers in a recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00260-6?fbclid=IwAR3YbmS6sETr2A6d_VHQKYPAF2Wmoq1g--f4Dlajm8BEnVE6R1Re0X3xGtU#citeas">Nature comment piece</a>, argued:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Cash provision could be coupled with incentives for recipients to participate in well-targeted, culturally sensitive food literacy programmes based on an understanding of barriers to consumption of nutritious foods. </p>
<p>In addition, public distribution programmes, state-managed stores, public restaurants, and other forms of subsidy programmes could focus on providing diverse nutritious foods and meals and minimizing less-healthy foods. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We note that the NSW government’s “Dine and Discover” program has been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/small-businesses-upset-fast-food-giants-can-access-dine-and-discover-program-20210407-p57hbn.html">critiqued</a> for including the fast food giants. </p>
<p>We must incentivise healthy food policies for businesses. For example, “naming and shaming” companies’ commitments to nutrition has resulted in policy and practice changes in Australia. There is <a href="https://www.monash.edu/medicine/healthy-stores-2020">recent evidence</a> from that healthy merchandising in food stores can meet both commercial and public health goals in Australia.</p>
<p>The pandemic has highlighted how easily our food supply can be disrupted by crisis. Now, it’s up to us to lean into that disruption and find ways to build resilience into the food system.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-pandemic-requires-us-to-understand-foods-murky-supply-chains-143229">The coronavirus pandemic requires us to understand food's murky supply chains</a>
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<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159642/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penny Farrell receives funding from the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and the University of Sydney Charles Perkins Centre; however, these grants do not pertain directly to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Marie Thow receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and the International Food Policy Research Institute; however, these grants do not pertain directly to this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Trevena has received grant funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Heart Foundation, these grants did not pertain directly to this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tara Boelsen-Robinson has received funding from the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation and the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sinead Boylan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since COVID hit, many Australians have seen first-hand what shocks to the food system can do.Penny Farrell, Research Fellow and Lecturer, University of SydneyAnne Marie Thow, Associate Professor in Public Policy and Health, University of SydneyHelen Trevena, Adjunct lecturer, University of SydneySinead Boylan, Research Associate, University of SydneyTara Boelsen-Robinson, Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1607772021-06-09T05:01:59Z2021-06-09T05:01:59ZVictoria’s COVID lockdown reminds us how many rely on food charity. Here’s how we plan for the next inevitable crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400712/original/file-20210514-21-1k3gtfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C995%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sherman-tx-united-states-april-1-1711414504">Sara Carpenter/www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Melbourne’s latest lockdown and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-06/victoria-s-emergency-aid-providers-struggling-to-keep/100193338">increased demand</a> for emergency food aid reminds us how many people don’t have enough food for themselves and their family.
We’ve also seen this in past lockdowns.</p>
<p>However, our research shows many Australians rely on emergency and community food relief <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/hsc.13062">for years</a>, not just for short periods.</p>
<p>So how do we make emergency food aid available whether or not there’s a lockdown or other crisis?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-many-australians-have-to-choose-between-heating-or-eating-this-winter-99940">Too many Australians have to choose between heating or eating this winter</a>
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<h2>Why are people turning to food aid?</h2>
<p>Australian cities have some of the <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/publications/research-papers/download/36-research-papers/13860-the-cost-of-living-an-explainer">highest costs of living</a> in the world. Housing costs <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-14/house-prices-australia-climbing-not-for-the-reason-you-think/100065644">are increasing</a> and wage growth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/18/bleak-outlook-for-pay-rises-australians-might-have-to-wait-five-years-for-return-to-2-wage-growth">is stagnant</a>. So many people are running short and turning to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ajs4.48">charity</a> to fill the gaps in their budgets.</p>
<p>The food charity sector has grown in Australia since the 1990s and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12916">more rapidly so over the past decade</a>.</p>
<p>Four main organisations — <a href="https://www.fareshare.net.au/">FareShare</a>, <a href="https://www.ozharvest.org/">OzHarvest</a>, <a href="https://www.secondbite.org/">SecondBite</a>, and <a href="https://www.foodbank.org.au/">Foodbank</a> — distribute over <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12916">50,000 tonnes of food each year</a> to charities in Australia. And it’s these charities that provide subsidised and free food parcels, school breakfasts, and prepared meals to their communities. </p>
<p>People use food charity for many reasons including: poor health, long and short-term unemployment, high costs of living, domestic violence, family breakdowns, and emergencies including fires, floods, and pandemics. </p>
<p>For instance, our research with single mothers tells us low levels of government welfare and high costs of housing in Australia mean some go without food so they can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1332/175982716X14822521840954">afford to pay other bills</a>.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-average-australian-wastes-200kg-of-food-a-year-yet-two-million-of-us-also-go-hungry-why-5278">The average Australian wastes 200kg of food a year - yet two million of us also go hungry. Why?</a>
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<h2>During COVID, many turn to food aid</h2>
<p>As Melbourne has gone in and out of lockdown over the past year or so, many casual workers, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-21/melbourne-coronavirus-lockdown-international-students-struggle/12678544">including international students</a>, found themselves out of work and needing assistance for the first time.</p>
<p>Our research, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19320248.2021.1900974">conducted during the second COVID-19</a> lockdown in Melbourne in May 2020, confirmed more people needed food assistance. </p>
<p>Foodbank Australia also reported a huge increase in the number of people needing food assistance since the start of the pandemic; <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/record-1-4-million-people-relying-on-food-charity-as-recession-bites-20200701-p55821.html">1.4 million people</a> sought food aid during May 2020 up from 815,000 before the pandemic.</p>
<p>But the COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerability in Australia’s emergency and community relief sector.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/god-i-miss-fruit-40-of-students-at-australian-universities-may-be-going-without-food-156584">'God, I miss fruit!' 40% of students at Australian universities may be going without food</a>
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<h2>COVID exposed vulnerabilities</h2>
<p>The increase in need for food charity, stresses on food supply chains in <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/covid-19-exposes-vulnerability-of-australias-food-security">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23748834.2020.1791442">globally</a>, and the impact of panic buying, meant some charities had <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-homeless-and-low-income-australian-hit-hard-as-food-services-stop/059542cf-315a-47c2-9e57-651b609bf9b6">food shortages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>An increase in demand</strong></p>
<p>We saw <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-24/centrelink-minister-stuart-robert-not-anticipate-coronavirus/12080612">queues of people lining up at Centrelink</a> in the first weeks of the pandemic. However, many people were protected from the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14733285.2021.1902943">worst of the economic impacts</a>, and protected from poverty and food insecurity. This was thanks to the temporary increase in social welfare through the introduction of the JobKeeper wage subsidy and doubling of the JobSeeker employment-seeking benefit in 2020.</p>
<p>However, according to <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/opening-statement-economics-legislation-committee-0">treasury figures</a>, within four weeks of JobKeeper ending in March 2021, about 56,000 people lost their jobs.</p>
<p><strong>The impact of panic buying</strong></p>
<p>Australia produces <a href="https://www.afgc.org.au/news-and-media/2020/06/no-need-to-panic-australia-produces-enough-food-for-75-million">enough food to feed itself</a>. However, during COVID-19, many Australians saw bare supermarket shelves. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/panic-buying-events-are-the-new-normal-heres-how-supply-chains-have-adapted-154362">Panic buying</a>, which reflected the uncertainty many people felt, meant those who could afford to, hoarded more food than they needed. This put pressure on supermarkets and left those on lower incomes reliant on whatever food was left available, often at an increased price, or on charity.</p>
<p><strong>Fewer volunteers</strong></p>
<p>Several food charities also reported a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-06/victoria-s-emergency-aid-providers-struggling-to-keep/100193338">drop in volunteers</a>. Without volunteers to collect and distribute food, food charities <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/australian-charity-heads-call-for-coronavirus-volunteers-as-numbers-slump">struggled</a> to meet the increased demand.</p>
<h2>Here’s how we could do this better</h2>
<p>To ensure we can assist all in need during the next inevitable crisis, we need to make sure charities are better funded, and can quickly respond to increased need.</p>
<p>Many charities apply for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-06/victoria-s-emergency-aid-providers-struggling-to-keep/100193338">short-term funding</a> often tied to helping a specific group of people. But governments need to provide long-term funding, and more of it, so charities can feed anyone who is in need. This is important if we are to cater for people, as we’ve seen during the pandemic, who have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/12/australian-food-banks-report-huge-surge-in-demand-during-covid-pandemic">never had to worry about food before</a> and are turning to food charity for the first time.</p>
<p>Most food charities are non-profit and rely heavily on volunteers. And finding volunteers will continue to be a challenge. We have seen the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/australian-charity-heads-call-for-coronavirus-volunteers-as-numbers-slump">Army pick up some of the slack</a>, but this is not a long-term solution. So finding creative ways to increase the numbers of volunteers will be essential.</p>
<p>Food assistance is also usually just one part of a complex web of people’s needs. Food charities also provide a range of other services, including referring clients to accommodation, family support/domestic violence, medical and mental health care, and financial services. So we need a network that allows people to be referred to other services when they need them.</p>
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<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona McKay has received funding from the Give Where You Live Foundation. </span></em></p>COVID has exposed how vulnerable Australia’s food charities are in times of crisis. But we can prepare for the next disaster.Fiona McKay, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1432292020-07-27T20:32:35Z2020-07-27T20:32:35ZThe coronavirus pandemic requires us to understand food’s murky supply chains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349202/original/file-20200723-37-1qeqgj4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4628%2C3240&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Do you know where your coffee comes from? The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of knowing about our supply chains. Here, a woman carries harvested coffee beans in a coffee plantation in Mount Gorongosa, Mozambique, in August 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Six months ago, you may not have thought much about where your groceries were produced. But chances are you’re thinking about it now. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 crisis has put food supply chains under <a href="http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/food-supply-chains-and-covid-19-impacts-and-policy-lessons-71b57aea/">incredible stress</a>, and stories on shortages of everything <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/perspectives/coronavirus-meat-shortages-mcdonalds/index.html">from meat</a> to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/why-theres-no-flour-during-coronavirus/611527/">baking ingredients</a> have been plentiful. </p>
<p>But even with the increased recent attention, most supply chains remain murky. Consumers can play a key role in lifting that cloud.</p>
<p>Supply chain transparency has sporadically received widespread attention before. In the 1990s, Nike was famously the target of global consumer boycotts due to concerns about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/08/business/nike-shoe-plant-in-vietnam-is-called-unsafe-for-workers.html">working conditions</a> in its manufacturing plants. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2012/jul/06/activism-nike">consumer activism</a> forced the company to make <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-nike-solved-its-sweatshop-problem-2013-5">major changes</a>, such as establishing minimum working ages, conducting regular factory audits and <a href="http://manufacturingmap.nikeinc.com/">publishing where</a> Nike products are made. </p>
<p>Despite progress, calls for consumer action on dangerous working conditions <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-dangerous-working-conditions-starts-with-informed-consumers-126427">in supply chains for a range of products continue</a>.</p>
<h2>An array of claims to decipher</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 crisis highlights the prospect of greater consumer engagement in the food supply chain. Browsing the shelves at your grocery store, you may come across a bewildering array of claims related to a product’s characteristics or origins. </p>
<p>There are, for example, <a href="http://www.ecolabelindex.com/ecolabels/?st=category,food">nearly 150 different eco-labels</a> on food that certify claims about a product’s environmental and social characteristics. Seafood, beef, coffee and bananas are just some of the many products <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOPM-01-2015-0037/full/html">covered by eco-labels</a>.</p>
<p>Many claims of where products come from or other characteristics, however, rest on <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-technology-will-help-fight-food-fraud-85783">weak foundations</a>. But consumers can push companies for continued innovation to illuminate the invisible parts of the supply chain and strengthen the credibility, transparency and veracity of their claims. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/supply-chain-innovation-can-reduce-coronavirus-food-shortages-138386">Supply chain innovation can reduce coronavirus food shortages</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>In many cases, this can be done with existing technology. Blockchain, <a href="http://www.cardnochemrisk.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=730&Itemid=162">chemical footprinting</a> and drones are becoming more reliable as they become cheaper. They are also increasingly being used in supply chain auditing and eco-labelling, and there’s scope to do much more.</p>
<p>Consider the example of the <a href="https://www.msc.org/home">Marine Stewardship Council</a> that provides fishery and seafood traceability certification programs. The council’s eco-label is “only applied to wild fish or seafood from fisheries that have been certified to (the MSC’s) standard.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man tosses a fishing net into a body of water with the sun rising in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349208/original/file-20200723-25-hmuz7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man casts a fishing net onto a flooded land following rain to catch fish on the outskirts of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in June 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Heng Sinith)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It uses state-of-the-art <a href="https://www.msc.org/what-we-are-doing/our-collective-impact/traceable-seafood-supply-chains">DNA testing</a> to ensure the traceability of certified seafood, resulting in mislabelling rates of under one per cent, an impressive statistic since mislabelling of seafood <a href="http://ocean-to-plate-stories.msc.org/?_ga=2.190722223.561613621.1595210084-1310831894.1595210084">can average</a> 30 per cent.</p>
<p>DNA testing is not applicable to all foods, but it is rarely used despite its potential in improving supply chain integrity.</p>
<h2>In-person audits are ineffective</h2>
<p>Most supply chain certifications draw only sparingly on the latest technologies. Instead, they <a href="https://www.isealalliance.org/sites/default/files/resource/2019-02/ISEAL%20Smart%20Data%20Technology%20Innovations%20Report_public%20Oct15.pdf">rely heavily on in-person audits</a>, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jan/14/supply-chain-audits-failing-detect-abuses-report">can be ineffective</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120773">recent research</a> has shown that technology-enhanced auditing can improve the timeliness and veracity of audit data collection and analysis, which can in turn strengthen the credibility of supply chain certifications advertised to consumers. In another study, we’ve further found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114740">the COVID-19 crisis can help accelerate the use of technology in supply chain audits</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several bananas with slightly freckled skins" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349238/original/file-20200723-27-19f58xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Are these bananas environmentally friendly? Technology can help consumers decide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Technology can also increase <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/03/coronavirus-is-proving-that-we-need-more-resilient-supply-chains">the resilience</a> of supply chains, so they are better able to respond to shocks like a global pandemic. </p>
<p>For example, technologies such as sensors, satellite imaging and cloud computing can improve visibility deep into the supply chain and improve co-ordination between suppliers and buyers. Real-time supplier monitoring can provide early warnings of potential problems such as working conditions, inventory shortages or production breakdowns. </p>
<p>These technologies cannot, of course, eliminate the possibility of future shortages, but they can make supply chains less likely to break.</p>
<p>Consumers can play a more active role in driving improvements throughout supply chains. Purchasing decisions are one key lever. </p>
<h2>Consumer engagement is key</h2>
<p>For example, consumers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00140139.2016.1193634">have indicated</a> a willingness to pay a premium for products made under good working conditions, but the lack of trustworthy information on those conditions is a barrier. Consumers can also actively push for the sharing of more and better quality information to reduce mislabelling and other undesirable activities, such as the trade of endangered species.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person's arm reaches for a package of greens from a selction of greens and lettuces in a grocery story." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349235/original/file-20200723-29-4sv18a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consumers can push for better quality food labelling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Piqsels)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going further, consumers can get more directly involved in supply chain monitoring. For example, in addition to satellite imaging, <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/">Global Forest Watch</a> has used crowd-sourcing to monitor forest change. Unilever, which makes dozens of products you’ll find at your local grocery store, has used Global Forest Watch to <a href="https://blog.globalforestwatch.org/commodities/building-a-partnership-to-advance-sustainability-unilever-and-global-forest-watch-commodities/">better understand deforestation in its supply chain</a>. </p>
<h2>Portable technologies on the rise</h2>
<p>And in the near future, consumers might even be able to validate the content of food labels by using simple portable technologies. No matter how they engage, consumers need to take a more active role in promoting and demanding greater supply chain transparency.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dna-barcodes-sci-fi-tech-to-safeguard-environment-79391">DNA barcodes — sci-fi tech to safeguard environment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The pandemic has more people thinking about supply chains than ever before. </p>
<p>This increased awareness presents a chance for consumers to become more engaged in where and how products they buy are produced. </p>
<p>Consumers need to push for more transparency and higher veracity information on where products come from, but they also need to take greater responsibility for what they buy and to participate wherever they can in supply chain monitoring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cory Searcy receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pavel Castka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The COVID-19 crisis highlights the importance of supply chains. But even with the increased recent attention, most supply chains remain murky. Consumers can play a key role in lifting that cloud.Cory Searcy, Professor & Vice-Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityPavel Castka, Professor in Operations Management and Sustainability, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1403862020-06-17T20:18:32Z2020-06-17T20:18:32Z100 days of coronavirus has sent shock waves through the food system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342256/original/file-20200616-23231-oealwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C210%2C3600%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 100 days of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of our food system, including the treatment of migrant labourers. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 lockdown has exposed a large number of problems in the food system. </p>
<p>Whether it was the panic buying or <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canary-in-the-coal-mine-meat-industry-says-more-safety-coming-with-covid-19-1.4951628">workers in meat-packing plants</a> testing positive for the virus, serious concerns have been raised about the resilience of the processes we depend upon for our daily bread. </p>
<p>At the same time, the people who process our food, keep our <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6718175/coronavirus-supply-chain-empty-shelves-retailers/">grocery store shelves stocked</a> and run our farms have, to a large extent, managed to adapt to the greatest disruption in our generation. </p>
<h2>A timeline</h2>
<p>We begin our journey of celebrating these accomplishments, and reflecting on these challenges, in March.</p>
<p>At the start of the shutdown, Canadians were shocked and scared to see grocery store shelves empty as the first wave of panic buying depleted inventories. </p>
<p>In retrospect, this was a relatively short-term problem, and the supply chains worked hard to restock shelves. Government helped in several ways, including by allowing stores to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6684129/toronto-enables-24-7-retail-deliveries-coronavirus-covid19/">restock 24 hours a day</a>. In addition, front-line food system workers received some hazard pay and there was a rapid expansion in grocery delivery services.</p>
<p>It wasn’t very long after this that the main food-related pandemic story was focused on Canada’s restaurants. </p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.savehospitality.ca/">hospitality sector shuttered</a>, over a million jobs, and tens of thousands of businesses, were lost. This also threw a wrench into our supply chains since systems that were set up to feed restaurants and cafeterias had to pivot to meet the rising demand from grocery stores. </p>
<p>As families reconnected over home-cooked meals and pondered planting <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-declares-community-gardens-an-essential-service/">community gardens</a>, we also became aware that what we eat at home is different than what we eat at restaurants. </p>
<p>The demand for <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6805223/coronavirus-flour-shortage/">home baking supplies</a> soared <a href="https://nationalpost.com/life/food/canadians-urged-to-eat-more-fries-as-200-million-pounds-of-potatoes-become-latest-food-victim-of-covid-19">while potatoes</a>, which mostly are eaten in restaurants as French fries, went to waste. </p>
<p>The industry also struggled with packaging. When restaurants purchase items like eggs or flour, they tend to buy in much larger quantities than when individual families do, so products went to waste as the packaging system worked hard to adapt.</p>
<h2>Marginal workers</h2>
<p>The next major food story related to temporary foreign workers as international travel bans caused panic among farm groups. </p>
<p>Canadian farmers depend on tens of thousands of foreign workers coming to our country every year. The government responded by <a href="https://www.pembinavalleyonline.com/ag-news/government-committed-to-allowing-temporary-foreign-workers-to-enter-canada">expediting visas</a> and providing some money to farmers who suddenly had to retrofit dormitories to allow for quarantining and social distancing.</p>
<p>These workers have arrived in Canada, and some of them have <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/06/09/spike-in-covid-19-cases-among-migrant-workers-in-southwestern-ontario.html">tested positive</a> for the virus after contracting COVID-19 here. At least two have died. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/americas/mexico-workers-canada-coronavirus/index.html">Mexico has consequently barred any additional seasonal workers from coming here, at least temporarily</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-canada-stigmatizes-jeopardizes-essential-migrant-workers-138879">Coronavirus: Canada stigmatizes, jeopardizes essential migrant workers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Overall, worker health, farm income and Canada’s harvest are all under threat.</p>
<p>Workers in <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/24/what-covid-19-means-for-food-systems-and-meatpacking/">meat-packing plants like Cargill in Alberta also started falling ill</a>, and at least three died. At one point, almost 75 per cent of Canada’s beef-processing capacity was <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6857867/alberta-covid-19-meat-processing-beef-production/">shut down</a> as companies struggled to keep workers safe. Plants reopened after retrofitting to allow for social distancing, but this continues to threaten worker health, has hurt productivity and caused backlogs in the system that reduce farm income. It also led <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadas-beef-and-pork-producers-forced-to-consider-culls-as-covid-1/">to animals being euthanized</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342257/original/file-20200616-23261-1rjw4ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mourner places flowers at a memorial for Hiep Bui Nguyen, a Cargill worker who died from COVID-19, in Calgary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both the migrant worker and meat-processing plant situations reveal an uncomfortable truth about Canada’s food system. The people we depend on the most to keep us fed are often the lowest paid, the most exposed to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-cargill-employee-dies-of-covid-19-after-month-long-hospitalization/">hazardous circumstances</a> and have the most precarious employment and immigration status. </p>
<p>These issues should prompt a <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/03/20/the-covid-19-pandemic-and-canadas-food-system/">much-needed national conversation</a> about how we treat labourers in the food system.</p>
<h2>Food insecurity</h2>
<p>Lastly, one of the most significant COVID-related food stories is the rise of food insecurity in Canada and internationally. </p>
<p>From the beginning of the crisis, food banks witnessed startling increases in the number of people needing assistance. Governments responded by putting <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2020/food-banks-cant-adequately-address-covid-19-food-insecurity/">money into the emergency food sector</a> in unprecedented amounts. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342260/original/file-20200616-23227-6vvn70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Volunteers prepare meals for food banks on the floor of the Bell Centre in May 2020 in Montréal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The United Nations has warned, however, the world faces famines of “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-developing-in-the-shadow-of-famine-the-combination-would-be-deadly/2020/05/18/9f250d5a-9935-11ea-89fd-28fb313d1886_story.html">biblical proportion</a>” due to both challenges in the supply chains, along with the economic cost of the pandemic.</p>
<h2>A national conversation</h2>
<p>The pandemic has caused ripple effects in the food system in Canada and around the world. But there are silver linings to this otherwise dark cloud. Despite the challenges, the system has performed remarkably well, and Canadians should be thankful for the ingenuity, selflessness and hard work that has gone into keeping us all fed. </p>
<p>At the same time, the problems revealed over the last 100 days illustrate profound structural vulnerabilities. Society is at a teachable moment, and we should take advantage of the lessons we have learned and establish the policies, programs and technologies to ensure our food system becomes stronger, more resilient and more equitable in the years to come. </p>
<p>This is why the <a href="https://arrellfoodinstitute.ca/">Arrell Food Institute</a> at the University of Guelph has teamed up with the <a href="https://capi-icpa.ca/">Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute</a> — and other stakeholders from across the food system — to launch “<a href="https://arrellfoodinstitute.ca/growing-stronger/">Growing Stronger: Aiming for Resilience in our Canadian Food System</a>.” If you would like to provide input, please consider uploading thoughts to our online portal. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The author would like to thank artist <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5568d1fee4b02cccd39ec3af/59230ca515cf7d33c868d9e0/5ee7cad08a40864f69473e35/1592279390568/COVID-19+Infographic+VER12b+HOZ+1000.jpg?format=1500w">Scott Mooney</a> for the illustrated timeline pictured above.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Fraser receives funding from the Government of Canada, the Government of Ontario and George Weston Ltd. In addition to his roles at the University of Guelph, he is on the board of the charity "the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security" and chairs the scientific advisory committee of George Weston Ltd's "Seeding Food Innovation" program. </span></em></p>COVID-19 has given society a teachable moment, and we should now establish the policies, programs and technologies to ensure our food system becomes stronger, more resilient and more equitable.Evan Fraser, Professor, Director of the Arrell Food Institute and Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1383862020-05-31T11:57:47Z2020-05-31T11:57:47ZSupply chain innovation can reduce coronavirus food shortages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338588/original/file-20200529-78867-1fvinkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C2263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Empty shelves in a grocery store in Toronto on March 22, 2020 as customers stock up on dry goods and shelf-stable foods.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Food security is an essential issue brought to light by COVID-19. </p>
<p>The Canadian government recognized this <a href="https://www.producer.com/2020/04/essential-service-designation-called-necessary/">by deeming workers across the food supply chain as an essential service</a>. More importantly, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/agri-food-covid-liberals-1.5555591">in early May, the federal government announced $252 million</a> in funding to farmers, food processors and food businesses to get through this pandemic. </p>
<p>Of the funding, $77.5 million is earmarked for food processing. This is a critical juncture: we are at a time when we need to examine food processing technology pre-COVID-19 and deploy it to make us more food secure and ready to withstand the next big challenge.</p>
<h2>Relying on old approaches</h2>
<p>With COVID-19, we’ve fallen back to 19th-century food technology to make us feel safe — <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2020004-eng.htm">stocking our pantries with canned foods and shelf-stable dried foods, including grains and pulses</a>.</p>
<p>When considering a post-COVID-19 food system, we must focus on building resilience using modern innovation. Cutting costs should not be the only factor that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/04/horsemeat-scandal-report-urgent-comprehensive-reforms">informs our supply chains</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724">Coronavirus: The perils of our ‘just enough, just in time’ food system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Most Canadians have lifestyles that demand the convenience of processed foods while valuing nutrition. The carbon footprint of food preservation done at the industrial scale is low: life-cycle analyses of foods show that the carbon footprint of home cooking is <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-bb144e.pdf">2.5 times that required to process the food</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7SuOBgv9LTE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Experts respond to questions about the Canadian food supply chain on CBC.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Food supply innovation tools</h2>
<p>In designing this post-COVID-19 food system, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/07/05/how-ai-is-transforming-agriculture/">the innovation tools are remarkably like the technology-focused terms of the pre-COVID-19 food system</a>. Some examples are:</p>
<p>• Blockchain: The incorruptible traceability features of blockchain permit agricultural commodities and food ingredients to be actively traced throughout the supply chain. Therefore, if, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-meat-plant-closed-outbreak-covid-19-1.5538824">as happened recently in Alberta</a>, production workers get sick, preceding parts of the supply chain can be reconfigured. Products can also be readily recalled, limiting further spread of the sickness (regardless of whether the sickness stems from a pandemic virus or a food pathogen). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trac.2018.08.011">The technology can also protect consumers from food fraud</a>.</p>
<p>• Sensors, robotics and automation: Even prior to the pandemic, an industry consortium, partnered with Industry, Science and Economic Development Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, had recognized the need to better automate Canada’s $105 billion per year food processing industry in order to <a href="https://www.foodincanada.com/food-in-canada/federal-government-invests-in-the-canadian-food-innovators-network-142243/">incentivize the growth of small- and medium-sized processors</a>. With COVID-19 affecting skilled and semi-skilled workers on process lines, the impetus for sensor-driven, on-line quality and safety assurances, coupled with hygienic robotic automation of production lines, will solve food security fears. Cheap sensors embedded in packages can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acssensors.9b00555">provide quantitative assessments of food spoilage</a>. Such innovations reduce the amount of food sent to landfills because of <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/confused-date-labels-packaged-foods">consumer confusion about best before dates</a>. </p>
<p>• Boutique food process operations: Megaplants producing large volumes of a limited range of products have cheaper production costs, <a href="https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2012/mro-plant-designing-flexibility/">but are intrinsically inflexible</a>. Food processors who can respond with agility to a variety of seasonal food preservation demands can better serve local food system needs. Some of these boutique processors can address agricultural food waste issues while also <a href="https://www.brandonu.ca/rdi/files/2011/02/Canadian-Prairie-Garden-Case-Study2.pdf">innovating with third generation aseptic processing technologies</a>. This can produce nutritious high-quality foods that are shelf-stable for up to two years to deliver resilience capacity to our food system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338591/original/file-20200529-78867-sd98zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In addition to making the food supply chain more secure, technological innovations may also address the problem of food waste.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Refrigeration and transportation</h2>
<p>Because most foods are perishable, <a href="http://www.grahamfoundation.org/grantees/4024-perishable-an-exploration-of-the-refrigerated-landscape-of-america">refrigeration or freezing is required to preserve the food from production to consumption</a> — a continuous system of temperature-controlled environments known as the cold chain. All of this cold chain, including the limited amount of cold-space in a consumer household, is completely reliant on uninterrupted power for refrigerant recycling.</p>
<p>Developing nutritious shelf-stable food innovations also addresses the cold chain’s carbon footprint. As much as <a href="https://climatesmartbusiness.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CS-Food-and-Beverage-Sector-Industry-Brief-digital.pdf">80 per cent of the emissions profile of a food product is its refrigeration footprint</a>. More than half of all supermarket energy consumption is associated with their fridge and frozen aisles. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2018.07.029">Innovative drying practices</a> can replace these cold chains to preserve fruits and vegetables, at the same time maintaining quality and nutrients.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Bill Morneau noted that <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/supporting-canada-s-farmers-food-businesses-and-food-supply-868861444.html">Canada’s agricultural sector is interconnected</a>. </p>
<p>As we enter the post-COVID-19 world of the 21st century, our call to action is to renovate our food supply chains so that they readily absorb the effects of the next big challenge. It’s now up to all the food system actors represented on the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/food-policy/thecanadianfoodpolicyadvisorycouncil.html">Canadian Food Policy Advisory Council</a> to ensure the new investments make a positive and lasting change across the production chain to benefit both consumers and the environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138386/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Scanlon is affiliated with Association of Canadian Faculties of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine. He receives funding from NSERC Canada and commodity agencies and has received funding for research projects from food processors. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rene Van Acker is affiliated with the Association of Canadian Faculties of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine. He receives funding from NSERC Canada, the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs and agricultural commodity organizations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:rickey.yada@ubc.ca">rickey.yada@ubc.ca</a> is affiliated with Association of Canadian Faculties of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine; AgResearch, New Zealand; Riddet Institute, New Zealand; Bioenterprise Corporation Canada; Arrell Food Institute; Seeding Food Innovation (George Weston); International Life Sciences Institute - North America.
He receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Using innovative technologies like Bitcoin and automation can help protect our food supply chains from disruptions like the one caused by the current coronavirus pandemic.Martin Scanlon, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of ManitobaRene Van Acker, Professor and Dean of The Ontario Agricultural College, University of GuelphRickey Yada, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365612020-05-07T13:55:24Z2020-05-07T13:55:24ZCoronavirus: Another chance to transform the global food trade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332158/original/file-20200503-42935-1143aoc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C196%2C3267%2C1898&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Harvesters work on a soybean harvest in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the second time this century, the interdependence of the global food supply is in sharp focus. In the first instance, the economic crisis of 2008 created high food prices and pushed an additional <a href="http://www.fao.org/tempref/docrep/fao/012/i0876e/i0876e_flyer.pdf">100 million</a> people toward hunger. </p>
<p>For many, though, that crisis neither began nor ended in 2008. Now, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the fragility of the globalized system of trade in food is apparent again. </p>
<p>In addition to conflict, climate change and impoverishment, COVID-19 threatens <a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-chief-warns-hunger-pandemic-covid-19-spreads-statement-un-security-council">265 million people</a> with famine and billions with food insecurity. </p>
<p>Hunger was <a href="http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition">on the rise in 2019</a> before the pandemic began. Despite ongoing <a href="https://viacampesina.org/en/la-via-campesina-issues-call-to-mobilise-against-wto-and-free-trade-agreements/">calls for change</a>, trade organizations and top food-exporting countries have yet to acknowledge that the current global food trade system is ill-suited to respond to local needs in an increasingly volatile world.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332160/original/file-20200503-42903-42msac.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Olivier De Schutter speaks to reporters during a news conference in Ottawa in May 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In the years following 2008, Olivier De Schutter, the then-United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to food, argued that food trade should be restructured around the idea of food as a right — not merely a commodity. He <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/report-special-rapporteur-right-food-olivier-de-schutter-final-report-transformative">advocated returning decision-making power to communities, investing in agro-ecological practices for our health and environment and moving away from a dependence on food imports</a>. </p>
<p>In short, he argued in favour of transforming a system that was ineffective long before the price increases in 2008 were referred to as a crisis. </p>
<p>The same transformative opportunity is presented to us today.</p>
<h2>Full COVID-19 impact still unknown</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm">Encouraging predictable</a> supplies and stable markets are the stated aims of the trade system. But markets are <a href="http://www.ipes-food.org/_img/upload/files/COVID-19_CommuniqueEN.pdf">repeatedly destabilized</a> when financial, energy or health challenges emerge.</p>
<p>While the full impact of the pandemic on food security <a href="https://www.aesanetwork.org/interim-issues-paper-on-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-food-security-and-nutrition-fsn/">is still unknown</a>, it’s likely to take <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/event/virtual-event-covid-19-implications-global-and-country-level-food-security-nutrition-and">different shapes around the world</a>.</p>
<p>The logistical challenges of moving food around the world during the pandemic are exacerbated by the globalized nature of supply chains. Disruptions to planting and harvesting due to illness outbreaks have an impact on food supplies, and restrictions on the movement of migrant farm workers compound the issue as well as reduce worker incomes.</p>
<p>It’s also clear that food availability is easily threatened in a trade system that encourages import dependence and export-oriented agriculture, but cannot <em>require</em> countries to export food.</p>
<p>For example, grain-exporting countries like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/03/world/europe/03reuters-health-coronavirus-trade-food-factbox.html">Russia and Ukraine</a> are restricting exports due to domestic supply concerns. These types of restrictions are detrimental to countries that depend on imported food. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332159/original/file-20200503-42962-ysjo6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmers bring in the harvest with their combine harvesters on a barley field near the village of Uzunovo in Russia in August 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Restrictions also lead to price shocks; even if there’s enough food globally, it becomes inaccessible to many people. Even small price increases can push staple items out of reach. As in 2008, low-income people who <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/apr/13/food.climatechange">spend large portions of their budgets</a> putting food on the table are most affected.</p>
<p>Relying on international markets to balance supply and demand has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/us-coronavirus-outbreak-agriculture-food-supply-waste">led to food waste</a>. This <a href="http://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/en/">problem isn’t new</a>, but it’s more pronounced during the pandemic. Because food production is a slow, seasonal process, it takes time to respond to shifting demands — and communicating demands is complex in long supply chains. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-farmers-are-dumping-milk-down-the-drain-and-letting-produce-rot-in-fields-136567">Why farmers are dumping milk down the drain and letting produce rot in fields</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Global South left out</h2>
<p>In response to the 2008 price spikes, tools were created to <a href="http://www.amis-outlook.org">improve market transparency and policy responses</a> in crises. But few countries from the Global South developed or participate in them — and many do not have the capacity to respond to market changes even if information is available to them.</p>
<p>New concerns over animal-to-human virus transmission could also have serious implications in domestic and international trade settings. Countries have curbed access to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/15/mixed-with-prejudice-calls-for-ban-on-wet-markets-misguided-experts-argue-coronavirus">wet markets</a> where wild animals are sold for the purpose of consumption. But if zoonotic spillover concerns are used to erect new food safety barriers, they’ll impact exporters in the Global South who are already <a href="https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/itcdtab70_en.pdf">disproportionately burdened by food safety standards</a> set by the north.</p>
<p>It could also affect Indigenous peoples, who face challenges <a href="https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/indigenous-economic-board-wants-to-boost-country-food-production/">trading and sharing what is known as “country food”</a> because of safety standards set by governments (and aligned with <a href="https://www.inspection.gc.ca/food-safety-for-industry/toolkit-for-food-businesses/sfcr-handbook-for-food-businesses/eng/1481560206153/1481560532540?chap=0">international standards</a>). When food is produced, harvested and consumed locally, communities ensure culturally appropriate safety standards. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/332447/original/file-20200504-83721-1ylswh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People feast on country food — whale blubber, Arctic char and caribou — in Iqaluit, while celebrating Nunavut’s 10 years as its own territory, on April 1, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Community food security organizations <a href="https://foodsecurecanada.org/policy-advocacy">propose policies</a> and undertake activities that are already <a href="https://foodsecurecanada.org/resources-news/news-media/food-policy-and-covid-19-short-term-response-food-system-transformation">transforming local food systems</a>. International food agencies are also <a href="https://www.unscn.org/uploads/web/file/COVID-19-Nutrition-Resources-UNSCN-140420.pdf">responding to challenges</a> exacerbated by the pandemic. </p>
<h2>WTO opposed to local control over food</h2>
<p>The multilateral trade focus has been on <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/igo_06apr20_e.htm">minimizing market disruptions</a>, but <a href="https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2020/april/tradoc_158718.pdf">fails to acknowledge that trade rules can impede local solutions</a>. In fact, World Trade Organization leaders have actively opposed localized control over food systems; they have spoken against <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/debates_e/debate14_e.htm">food sovereignty and self-sufficiency</a> and failed to resolve disagreements over <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/food_security_e.htm">public stockholding,</a> when developing countries purchase and stockpile food and distribute it to people in need. That’s despite the WTO admissions that food security is a legitimate objective. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-03-2020-joint-statement-by-qu-dongyu-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-and-roberto-azevedo-directors-general-of-the-food-and-agriculture-organization-of-the-united-nations-(fao)-the-world-health-organization-(who)-and-the-world-trade-organization-(wto)">joint statement</a> by the World Health Organization, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the WTO in March was a minor departure from the otherwise siloed approach to food in trade discussions, where food is positioned as an agricultural commodity, distinct from health, labour and the environment.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG-791H-60k&feature=youtu.be">Michael Fakhri</a>, the newly appointed Special Rapporteur on the right to food, sees the pandemic as a “warning shot” and says trade must be restructured around food security as climate change intensifies. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AG-791H-60k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">IEL Collective Conversation #5: Right to Food with the new UN Special Rapporteur Michael Fakhri.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fakhri suggests that the right to food can be used as a tool for civil society to engage with trade institutions internationally. </p>
<p>Indeed, transforming trade so that it complements rather than displaces localized food systems is the key to recognizing and honouring the right to food for people all over the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rhonda Ferguson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the second time this century, crises have led to calls to transform our global food system. We can start with restructuring the global food trade so that it complements local food systems.Rhonda Ferguson, Research Fellow, Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1358222020-05-03T19:49:09Z2020-05-03T19:49:09ZWe’ve had a taste of disrupted food supplies – here are 5 ways we can avoid a repeat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326371/original/file-20200408-193236-1k4evd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C0%2C1115%2C675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Bread Famine and the Pawnbroker, Brothers Lesueur (18th century)</span> </figcaption></figure><p>When our reliance on supermarkets is seriously disrupted – for example, by spikes in demand due to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/it-s-un-australian-and-it-must-stop-scott-morrison-tells-australians-to-cease-panic-buying">panic buying</a> or the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-12/putting-queenslands-food-supply-chain-back-together-after-floods/7080766">flooding of distribution centres</a> – we are left with few alternatives. Supermarkets are central to our everyday lives, but they have also become symbols of our vulnerability in times of disruption.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 crisis has caused us to rethink many things we took for granted. This includes the plentiful supply of a great variety of food at relatively stable prices in our supermarkets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grow-your-own-making-australian-cities-more-food-secure-8021">Grow your own: making Australian cities more food-secure</a>
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<p>Until recently, if we thought about <a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faoitaly/documents/pdf/pdf_Food_Security_Cocept_Note.pdf">food security</a> at all, it was more likely to conjure images of malnutrition in countries of the <a href="http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/">global south</a> rather than empty supermarket shelves. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/food-insecurity-australia-what-it-who-experiences-it-and-how-can-child">food insecurity exists in Australia</a>. It can be experienced as hunger and also as feelings of anxiety about future food shortages.</p>
<h2>The rise of supermarkets and global supply chains</h2>
<p>Supermarkets were a 1930s success story that began during the Great Depression. The world’s first supermarket, <a href="https://australianfoodtimeline.com.au/worlds-first-supermarket/">King Kullen</a>, opened with the enduring principle of “Pile it high, sell it low!” King Kullen became the standard model of supermarket operations with globally interconnected supply chains. </p>
<p>While this model epitomised the trend of globalisation, during the second world war more local food production was encouraged in the form of “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/the-return-of-the-world-war-victory-garden/12085190">victory gardens</a>”. These made a significant contribution to food security during the war years. It was a demonstration of what can be achieved in times of crisis.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/140035/original/image-20161003-7750-1ntd4sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An Australian government ‘Grow your own’ campaign billboard from 1943.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NAA C2829/2</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-time-to-resurrect-the-wartime-grow-your-own-campaign-66337">Is it time to resurrect the wartime 'Grow Your Own' campaign?</a>
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<h2>‘What if’ questions help us build resilience</h2>
<p>Contingency planning is about being clear on your Plan B or Plan C if Plan A hits trouble. It’s about asking the “what if” questions. As a planning tool, this enables systems to build resilience to disruption by identifying other pathways to achieve desired outcomes. </p>
<p>The difference between now and the 1930s is that today we are vastly more connected at a global scale. Within our food-supply chains, we can use the knowledge that comes from this greater connectivity to ask different “what if” questions.</p>
<p>For example, what if a pandemic and a severe weather event overlapped, disrupting critical transport infrastructure? How could we adapt? </p>
<p>Or what if several Australian states experienced serious disruptions to food supply at the same time? How could we ensure timely resupply? </p>
<p>Recent experiences of empty supermarket shelves remind us of the importance of such questions.</p>
<p>Greater self-sufficiency is sensible and practical. Australia’s <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/2153/nationalstrategyfordisasterresilience.pdf">National Strategy for Disaster Resilience</a> makes clear that we should understand the risks we live with – in this case, our deep-seated and often unquestioned dependency on long food-supply chains. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085">To protect fresh food supplies, here are the key steps to secure city foodbowls</a>
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<p>The strategy also calls for authorities to <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-planning-for-food-contingencies-a-call-to-action/">help empower citizens to share responsibility</a> where they can in building their own resilience to hardship. This taps into a primal urge, as we have seen in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-24/coronavirus-panic-buying-of-edible-plants-at-nurseries/12082988">recent spike in demand for seedlings and vegetable plants at nurseries</a> as people take to home gardening, digging not so much for victory as for survival during a shutdown.</p>
<h2>Strategies to prepare for the next crisis</h2>
<p>These questions highlight the need to think about ways to complement and enhance existing arrangements for supplying food. <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/cities-research-institute/research/digital-earth-and-resilient-infrastructure/food-contingency">Our research</a> identifies several immediate opportunities to promote shorter food-supply chains and devise contingency food plans:</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> We can buy more locally produced food staples, <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files_publications/Burton_2013_Urban_food_security.pdf">support local producers</a> at a farmers’ market, join a <a href="http://foodconnectfoundation.org.au/the-how">Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) group</a>, or take advantage of online platforms that make a <a href="https://localfoodconnect.org.au/local-food-directory/">range of locally grown food more readily available</a>.</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> Local businesses can embed contingency arrangements to ensure access to locally produced food within their business continuity plans, building greater capacity to keep business and local economies operating in difficult times.</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> Supermarkets can advocate for and support shorter food-supply chains by sourcing food products locally where possible and championing “buy local” campaigns.</p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> An active undertaking to identify and map the <a href="https://research.unimelb.edu.au/foodprint-melbourne/publications/melbournes-foodbowl">regional food bowls</a> of each city and township will support contingency plans.</p>
<p><strong>5.</strong> Local councils can help make it possible to grow much more of the food we need, even in relatively <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/even-small-plots-of-urban-land-could-provide-fruit-and-veg-for-many-in-the-uk">dense towns and cities</a>. This can range from potted herbs on apartment balconies, through to broccoli in suburban backyards to intensive farming operations in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufa_Farms">big industrial estate sheds or rooftops</a>. Municipal parks that feature little more than lawn can devote some space to community gardens, while more rigorous land-use planning regimes can protect market gardening near urban centres.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farming-the-suburbs-why-cant-we-grow-food-wherever-we-want-80330">Farming the suburbs – why can’t we grow food wherever we want?</a>
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<p>Societies have faced significant food and health crises over the centuries. Now, though, we have almost real-time data on food production, stocks and supply chains. Would it not be sensible to strengthen local food systems that can complement our supermarkets and global networks?</p>
<p>If we don’t do this, the only lesson we will have learned from the coronavirus crisis is to start hoarding baked beans, toilet paper and hand sanitiser as soon as we first hear of a looming disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Reis is an Academic Affiliate of the the Planning Institute of Australia and a 'care-holder' with the Food Connect Shed. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cheryl Desha has previously received funding from the federal government and industry, but not directly related to this topic area. She is a member of Engineers Australia (MIEAust CPEng NER), the International Society of Digital Earth (Board Member), and the Surveying and Spatial Sciences Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Burton is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and the Urban Development Insitute of Australia and has previously received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility for research on urban food security and on emergency management in a changing climate.</span></em></p>After the brief shock of food insecurity in the form of empty supermarket shelves, we might start thinking about having a Plan B and C based on local food sources and shorter supply chains.Kimberley Reis, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityCheryl Desha, Associate Professor, School of Engineering and Built Environment, and Director, Engagement (Industry), Griffith UniversityPaul Burton, Professor of Urban Management & Planning and Director, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1355142020-04-27T18:14:04Z2020-04-27T18:14:04ZWhy we aren’t running out of food during the coronavirus pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329217/original/file-20200420-152602-1nzsmu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=251%2C0%2C4393%2C2824&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Long lines of masked shoppers wait to shop for groceries in Toronto on April 9, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We are living through a period in which many jurisdictions have shut down virtually all non-essential commerce. People are working from home or have been temporarily laid off. </p>
<p>We have seen rushes on food and grocery items like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that have resulted in some short-term shortages in stores.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-hoarding-why-you-can-stop-amassing-toilet-paper-135659">Coronavirus hoarding: Why you can stop amassing toilet paper</a>
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<p>Some have questioned the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724">resilience of our food system</a> and whether we could run out of food. The easy answer is we are not running out of food. Our food system has proven to be robust and resilient and shortages are demand-based rather than supply-based. </p>
<p>We have cheap food. It doesn’t always feel like it, but Canadians spend among the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food/">lowest proportion of our income on food</a> in the world. Canadians who don’t live in remote communities have an abundance of safe and affordable food. We also have an incredible diversity of food products available.</p>
<h2>Stores are restocking</h2>
<p>Yes, we have seen some shortages on grocery store shelves. But we have seen stores restocking regularly, and the expectation is that the system will catch up. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/operations/inventory-management/pages/inventory-management-build-smoother-supply-chain.aspx">just-in-time</a> process used in our food system, in fact, is not unique to food supply chains. It is based on producing and shipping product to meet expected demands. It depends on accurate forecasts and smooth delivery. </p>
<p>We have seen a significant surge in demand as people buy large quantities in anticipation of being at home for long periods of time. This was exacerbated by <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-panic-buying-britain-us-shopping/608731/">panic buying</a>, when people saw shortages in the store or heard of shortages in news reports. Products are being quickly restocked, even though they’re often snapped up quickly.</p>
<p>We will see a return to some semblance of <a href="http://www.canadiangrocer.com/top-stories/headlines/grocers-respond-to-food-shortage-fears-amid-covid-19-outbreak-93597">normality reasonably soon</a> — at least with respect to food stocks in stores. This is supported by policies at stores that are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/whats-being-done-store-shelves-1.5503594">limiting quantities</a> that people can purchase. </p>
<p>Demand for things like hand sanitizer continue to be high. Demand for other food products will probably stabilize relatively quickly, even if people continue to hold extra stock at home. Grocery stores have seen an increase in demand for food as restaurants are closed, but that simply shifts demand from food service distribution to supermarket distribution, and isn’t leading to food supply shortages.</p>
<p>We are also seeing <a href="https://www.supermarketnews.com/center-store/how-coronavirus-crisis-changing-grocery-shopping">larger individual shopping orders</a> as consumers minimize the number of times they have to go to the grocery store. </p>
<h2>Milk dumping</h2>
<p>While there have been some shortages at grocery stores, we’ve also seen reports of farmers <a href="https://www.foodfocusguelph.ca/post/a-thought-on-dumping-milk-during-covid-19">dumping milk</a> or <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241627101.html">plowing down crops</a>. </p>
<p>This is caused by the requirement for adjustments in the food system. As demand has decreased in food services, it’s increased in retail. So why is milk being dumped and why are crops being mowed down?</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328937/original/file-20200419-152576-zqbdck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Milk processors have lost a significant chunk of their market during the pandemic, leaving dairy farmers with no one to take their milk and forcing some farmers to dump it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pat Sutphin/Times-News via AP)</span></span>
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<p>It’s because raw product needs to be diverted to new processors and products, and other products need to be diverted to different processors. Some products require packaging changes. Professional bakers buy industrial-sized bags of flour, for example, but most retailers won’t normally carry that size.</p>
<p>These adjustments take time, and for perishable products like milk and produce, storage isn’t available. These adjustments are now under way and products are beginning to flow through supply chains more normally.</p>
<h2>No border closures</h2>
<p>Food supply chains have been protected from border closures this far, and that’s expected to continue. The most important border for Canada’s food supply chain, and that of the United States too, is the Canada-U.S. border. <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CAN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/16-24_FoodProd">More than half of our food imports</a> come from the U.S.</p>
<p>During the winter months, we import more. But fresh local produce is available to most Canadians in the warmer months.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328931/original/file-20200419-152585-1u8fx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Perishables like strawberries are more readily available locally in Canada in the warmer months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Markus Spiske/Unsplash)</span></span>
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<p>Even if the border closed, we would still not go hungry. We would have less fresh produce, but <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/foodland/page/availability-guide">we’d still have Canadian</a> apples and root vegetables in storage. We would also have frozen products available.</p>
<p>Given the sales forecasts for these items, we probably wouldn’t begin to run short until the Canadian growing season had kicked in. But there would be bread, milk, meat and cheese readily available. We might see a decrease in variety, but we wouldn’t run out of food. And there’s no indication that there’s any risk of the border closing in the short run.</p>
<h2>Food processing could be impacted</h2>
<p>One area of concern is the processing sector. There are fewer processing plants than there are both farmers and retail stores.</p>
<p>If plants close, production stops. We have seen the temporary closure of a pork <a href="https://www.realagriculture.com/2020/03/olymel-pork-plant-closure-update-industry-working-to-keep-pork-moving/">processor in Québec</a> due to COVID-19 and a big beef plant in Alberta has <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-cargill-to-temporarily-close-meat-packing-plant-at-centre-of-alberta/">temporarily closed</a>. </p>
<p>The Québec plant is reopening and the Alberta plant has shut down to mitigate the risk of employees getting sick. While there is not yet a fixed date for the Cargill plant in Alberta to re-open, it is expected to be soon. These short-term closures can cause hardships, particularly for farmers, but shouldn’t significantly affect availability on grocery shelves. </p>
<p>While the Cargill represents almost 40 per cent of the beef processing capacity in Canada, our beef industry is highly integrated with the American industry with both livestock and beef products <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Ottawa_Canada_9-7-2018.pdf">flowing in both directions</a>. </p>
<p>Plant closures would cause losses for perishable products like milk or produce. But for meat producers, livestock can be diverted or held until processors reopen. This can cause significant losses for farmers. Prices go down with extra supply and if livestock has to be shipped further and costs go up if animals have to be held. But unless the number of closures increases dramatically and closures are enduring, we will continue to see food on grocery shelves.</p>
<p>Overall, our food system has bent but not broken in the face of unprecedented demand. We can remain confident that we will have food available as we work our way through the peaks of the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael von Massow receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food to research issues in food waste and nutrition labeling for restaurant menus. He has received funding from the Walmart Foundation to explore food waste at the household level. He has received money from the Tim Hortons Sustainable Food Management Fund to explore consumer attitudes to antibiotic use and animal welfare. He has also received funding from Longo's Brothers Markets in support of research into consumer behaviour in food retail.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alfons Weersink receives funding from Ontario Ministriy of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA) and Food from Thought, sponsored through the Canada First Research Excellence Fund. </span></em></p>Canada’s food system has bent but not broken in the face of unprecedented demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. We will continue to have enough food available.Michael von Massow, Associate Professor, Food Economics, University of GuelphAlfons Weersink, Professor, Dept of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365672020-04-23T12:09:21Z2020-04-23T12:09:21ZWhy farmers are dumping milk down the drain and letting produce rot in fields<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329892/original/file-20200422-47799-kkz5z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C59%2C1976%2C1269&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Pennsylvania dairy farmer watches 5,500 gallons of milk swirl down the drain.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans may be surprised and confused to see farmers <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dairy-farmers-hit-hard-by-coronavirus-are-spilling-a-lot-of-milk/">dumping milk</a> down the drain or letting <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-truly-helpless-farmers-devastated-by-pandemic/">vegetables rot</a> in their fields. </p>
<p>Why would they be destroying food at a time when <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business/food-supply-chains-coronavirus/index.html">grocery stores</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-strain-on-food-banks/">food pantries</a> struggle to keep pace with surging demand during the coronavirus pandemic?</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jlg_PMsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologists</a> with a specialty in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JA9GbHAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0EfJ-0oAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">food</a>, we study how the structure of the food system affects people’s lives and the environment. Seeing food destroyed at a time when people <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/02/us-food-banks-coronavirus-demand-unemployment">are going hungry</a> highlights both short- and long-term problems with this system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329940/original/file-20200423-47826-e1cx2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food and toilet paper have more in common than you think.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rodney Stubina/EyeEm/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A tale of two supply chains</h2>
<p>Surprisingly, the supply chain for food bears a striking similarity to that of another product that has experienced shortages: <a href="https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0">toilet paper</a>. </p>
<p>Like the toilet paper market, the food industry has two separate supply chains for consumer and commercial use. On the consumer side are grocery and convenience stores that focus on small purchases. The commercial side represents restaurants and institutions such as schools, prisons, hospitals and corporate cafeterias that purchase large quantities of foods in bulk. Ultimately, commercial institutions purchase in sizes that exceed the storage capacity of most households and food pantries.</p>
<p>While the commercial and the consumer supply chains are different, there are some commonalities: Both are complex, cover long distances and rely on just-in-time production. Both are also increasingly concentrated, meaning that there are only a <a href="https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/resource/2020/04/covid-19s-impacts-on-u-s-food-and-agriculture-webinar/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=delivra-WebinarRecording042020&utm_campaign=Webinar-042020COVID19">few companies</a> between farmers and consumers that process and distribute raw agricultural goods into edible food. For example, on the commercial side, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/01/29/sysco-feasts-on-economies-of-scale-for-strong-competitive-advantage/#162e1592245e">Sysco</a> and U.S. Foods control an <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2015/02/ftc-challenges-proposed-merger-sysco-us-foods">estimated 75% of the market</a> for food distribution.</p>
<p>These characteristics make the supply chains more <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-your-local-store-keeps-running-out-of-flour-toilet-paper-and-prescription-drugs-135786">vulnerable</a> to disruptions. </p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58364">over half of all U.S. spending</a> on food was on the commercial side of the supply chain. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-shutdown.html">introduction of social distancing measures in March</a> forced schools, corporate cafeterias and many restaurants to close. As a result, a lot of food intended for commercial use no longer had a buyer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329941/original/file-20200423-47847-10jib9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meat plant closures has created a bottleneck for processing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where the supply chains diverge</h2>
<p>To understand why this food can’t readily be diverted to consumers, let’s take a closer look at the supply chains for meat, vegetables and milk. With each category, there are different reasons. </p>
<p>Vegetable farmers, for example, have a lot of crops growing in their fields intended for commercial buyers like schools, restaurants and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/05/food-waste-coronavirus-pandemic-164557">cruise lines</a>, which are no longer purchasing these products.</p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-challenges-facing-u-s-farms-get-workers-keep-them-healthy-11585660358">worsening</a> <a href="https://www.fb.org/viewpoints/another-year-of-farm-labor-shortages">labor shortage</a> makes it a lot harder to harvest or pick their crops and package them for consumers. </p>
<p>So a combination of plunging commercial demand, not enough low-wage yet skilled laborers, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/prices-of-agricultural-commodities-drop-20-post-covid-19-outbreak/articleshow/74705537.cms">falling prices</a> and a short window in which to pick vegetables means it has become cheaper to simply let them rot in the fields. </p>
<p>As for meat, restaurants <a href="https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2020/04/13/restaurant-failures-slow-beefs">typically order</a> larger cuts and use more of the pricier parts like tenderloins. In contrast, much of the meat purchased on the consumer side is sold in “<a href="https://www.meatinstitute.org/index.php?ht=a/GetDocumentAction/i/93528">case-ready” packages</a>, and ground beef is far more common. </p>
<p>So in general, commercial buyers tend to buy parts of the cow or pig that consumers simply don’t prepare at home. But what’s more, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/04/22/meat-packing-plants-covid-may-force-choice-worker-health-food/2995232001/">meat plant closures</a> due to COVID-19 outbreaks are creating a bottleneck for slaughtering and processing animals, which also have a short window before they’re past their prime. As a result, producers, particularly pork farmers, are debating whether to feed and care for their animals past their prime or <a href="https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2020/04/20/plants-suspend-operations-growing">simply euthanize them</a>. </p>
<p>Milk is even more complicated when it comes to how it flows along the food chain.</p>
<p>First, there’s no stopping cows giving milk; udders that are full must be emptied daily. The only question is where that milk will go.</p>
<p>Restaurants and organizations like schools purchase <a href="https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-sends-upstate-ny-dairy-industry-into-free-fall-as-milk-dumping-soars.html">nearly half</a> of all milk, butter and other dairy products processed in the U.S. Pizzerias alone take nearly a quarter of all <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/04/best-cheeses-americans-have-an-insatiable-demand-for-pizza-cheese.html">U.S. cheese production</a>. </p>
<p>With many of these customers closed or cutting their purchases, there’s lots of excess milk. Unfortunately, processors do not have the equipment to package that milk into smaller containers for grocery stories and retail use. </p>
<p>As for converting more milk into dairy products with longer shelf lives like cheese, there was already a glut of mozzarella and other cheese plugging up <a href="https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/01/08/cheese-surplus-united-states">cold storage space</a>. And despite a rise in takeout pizza, <a href="https://www.farmprogress.com/dairy/covid-19-leads-milk-dumping-plunging-dairy-prices">overall demand for cheese</a> has “dropped like a rock,” according to trade industry sources. </p>
<p>That has left dairy farmers with little choice <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/farmers-are-dumping-milk-in-latest-blow-to-battered-u-s-dairy?sref=Hjm5biAW">but to dump excess milk</a> into manure ponds and ditches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329893/original/file-20200422-47788-4un2j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A quarter of all cheese makes its way to a pizza.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Karl Tapales/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A longer-term problem</h2>
<p>Many states are working on short-term solutions to bridge the gap between the two supply chains.</p>
<p><a href="https://governor.nebraska.gov/press/gov-ricketts-announces-regulatory-changes-allow-restaurants-operate-pop-retailers">Nebraska</a> is temporarily allowing restaurants to sell unlabeled packaged foods to customers, <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-comfort-food-care-packages-for-texas-youth-and-families">Texas</a> is pushing restaurants to prepare food care packages for at-risk families, and many other states have changed their health regulations to allow restaurants to <a href="https://www.beefmagazine.com/beef-quality/covid-takeout-real-beef-burgers-paying-bills-restaurants">repackage products</a> into smaller quantities to sell to the public.</p>
<p>In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to begin purchasing <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/18/usdas-19-billion-covid-19-relief-farmers-and-food-banks-sparks-questions-about-who">US$3 billion in fresh produce, dairy and meat</a> to support farmers and eventually distribute it to food pantries and other organizations feeding Americans in need.</p>
<p>Although helpful in the short term, we believe a longer-term problem that needs to be addressed is how concentrated food supply chains have become, which has made them less nimble in adapting to disruptions like a health pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Ransom has received funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle R. Worosz has received funding from various USDA grant programs including the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>E. Melanie DuPuis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not as easy as you might think to divert food intended for schools and restaurants and send it to grocery stores or even food banks.Elizabeth Ransom, Associate Professor of International Affairs & Senior Research Associate Rock Ethics Institute, Penn StateE. Melanie DuPuis, Professor and Chair, Environmental Studies and Science, Pace University Michelle R. Worosz, Professor of Rural Sociology, Auburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1357812020-04-09T13:30:10Z2020-04-09T13:30:10ZLessons from China: Ensuring no one goes hungry during coronavirus lockdowns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326085/original/file-20200407-18916-1fmqaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman wears a face mask as she shops at a grocery store in Beijing in February 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 230 million people in China faced mobility restrictions during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic amid <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/opinion/china-wuhan-virus-quarantine.html">the largest quarantine in human history</a>.</p>
<p>One of the top concerns for government officials and citizens alike was access to food. Sporadic reports of panic food buying, food price spikes and concerns about the freshness of food appeared on Chinese social media. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C5472%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325943/original/file-20200407-51213-sfy95s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Chinese fruit market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ines Iachelini/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet food supplies and food prices in China have <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-china-can-address-threats-food-and-nutrition-security-coronavirus-outbreak">remained stable</a>. Because food shortages might become a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061032">severe challenge</a> for many countries amid the rapid spread of the virus all over the world, there’s a lot to learn from China’s food security measures.</p>
<p>Here’s how they did it. </p>
<h2>Diverse food outlets</h2>
<p>An important factor in maintaining food security was the diversity of urban food outlets in Chinese cities. The epidemic provided an unexpected <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/coronavirus-outbreak-drives-demand-for-china-s-online-grocers">boost to online food markets</a> run by the private sector, known as “<a href="https://hungrycities.net/publication/hcp-discussion-paper-no-40-food-retailing-transitions-new-retail-businesses-nanjing-china/">new retail business</a>” in China. </p>
<p>While millions were stuck at home, online food markets became the food retail option of choice. In cities where e-commerce in shops and restaurants is well-established, food buying was quickly transferred from offline to online. </p>
<p>It’s estimated people under 25 years of age buying fresh produce from online markets <a href="https://www.iyiou.com/p/123976.html">skyrocketed by more than 250 per cent and patrons above 55 years old increased by almost 400 per cent</a>. Some of the most popular online food markets experienced sales boosts of 470 per cent over 2019. </p>
<p>Millions of online food orders are placed everyday and delivered to people’s doorsteps or to lockers within housing complexes for pick up. </p>
<h2>The ‘vegetable basket program’</h2>
<p>The success of online food markets in China wouldn’t have been possible without the long-term implementation of the state’s urban food security policy known as the “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-019-00961-8">vegetable basket program</a>.” Proposed in 1988, the program mandates that city mayors are responsible for the provisioning, affordability and safety of non-grain foods, particularly fresh produce and meat. </p>
<p>Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, was among 35 other major cities <a href="https://money.163.com/19/1231/08/F1NBANB100258105.html">assessed directly by the central government once every two years</a> for its performance in implementing the program. </p>
<p>Cities got good marks for improvements like delivery facilities in residential compounds such as passcode-protected cabinets for dropping off and picking up food, and the availability and accessibility of other types of food outlets such as supermarkets, small food shops and most importantly wet markets.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-shutting-down-chinese-wet-markets-could-be-a-terrible-mistake-130625">Why shutting down Chinese ‘wet markets’ could be a terrible mistake</a>
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</em>
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<p>The strict evaluation ensured the diversity and extensive network of food sources for fresh produce and meat in every neighbourhood. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, high-scoring cities were able to adapt and respond to most food insecurity. </p>
<p>Local governments set specific goals for self-sufficiency rates of different kinds of food to demonstrate their commitments to the vegetable basket program. </p>
<p>The city of Nanjing, for example, with a population of eight million, set a goal of 90 per cent self-sufficiency for leafy vegetables for the period of 2008-12. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326079/original/file-20200407-96658-88h5nu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some Chinese cities, like Nanjing, set a goal for leafy vegetables. Local governments set specific goals for different types of foods under the vegetable basket program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pixabay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These local food production goals were accompanied by strict plans for <a href="https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/articles/farmland-preservation-china">farmland protection</a> within the jurisdiction. Chinese cities typically have large areas of townships outside central urban districts. Farmland in these townships is protected for the purpose of implementing the vegetable basket program.</p>
<h2>Food reserves</h2>
<p>Food security in China is also reinforced by a food reserve system. The Chinese government has long operated a system of procuring surplus grains and pork with minimum procurement prices, and releasing the reserve to the market in the event of food shortages and price hikes. </p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="http://www.sohu.com/a/258590041_732452">China’s total grain reserves</a> were estimated at 120 million tonnes of maize, 100 million tonnes of rice, 74 million tonnes of wheat and eight million tonnes of soybeans. The emergency grain reserves guarantee <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/food/2019-10/15/c_1125104735.htm">10-15 days supply of refined grains in major cities</a>. </p>
<p>To cope with the outbreak of COVID-19, the Chinese government has been reshuffling food reserves from different governmental levels and <a href="https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2020-02-10/doc-iimxyqvz1699561.shtml?source=cj&dv=1">released a huge amount to the markets of major cities</a>.</p>
<h2>A resilient food system</h2>
<p>Much more is happening in Wuhan and other cities to get food to dinner tables. While we can never overstate the important role of civil society and social organizations to guarantee immediate food to the most vulnerable groups, we can’t neglect the long-term resilience of our food system. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/325944/original/file-20200407-74220-sqk0rs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents go about their grocery shopping at a supermarket in Beijing on March 8, 2020. As China’s coronavirus cases and death steadily falls, authorities are trying to restart its businesses and factories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This means a restructuring of food supply chains that are far too dependent upon the supermarket system and food imports from faraway countries. </p>
<p>Encouraging the development of diversified food businesses through urban food system planning will improve resilience and provide more support for local and domestic food producers rather than transnational food corporations. They are the safety net we turn to in an increasingly uncertain world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zhenzhong Si receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and The International Development Research Centre. </span></em></p>Decades of planning on food security and a food reserve system kept China’s urban populations fed during the coronavirus outbreak, showing the significance of a resilient local food system.Zhenzhong Si, Research Associate, Geography & Environmental Management, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1346152020-03-26T13:18:55Z2020-03-26T13:18:55ZSupply chains expert: don’t panic if you see empty shelves – more stock is on its way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323264/original/file-20200326-132965-13rdwp0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/blurred-selection-pasta-ketchup-condiment-tomato-541750219">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One in ten people in the UK has been stockpiling basic goods, according to a <a href="https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/03/almost-1-4-retailers-hit-severe-supply-disruption-amid-coronavirus-fears/">recent survey of retailers</a>. You may not think you are guilty of this but by simply going to the shops more often than you would normally and putting those extra items in your trolley that you don’t need, you are <a href="https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2020/03/supermarkets-15m-more-visits-past-week-kantar-coronavirus/">adding to the problem of empty shelves</a>. If you’re worried about supplies, here’s why you should rest assured that stocks will soon be replenished.</p>
<p>There is £1 billion more food sitting in people’s houses than there was three weeks ago, according to the head of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51989721">British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson</a>. The panic buying of essentials like pasta, rice, tinned food and toilet roll causes a domino effect which makes others feel <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-people-are-panic-buying-loo-roll-and-how-to-stop-it-133115">compelled to stock up themselves</a>. This is not only unnecessary, it makes the problem worse for everyone and there are reports of food waste as a <a href="https://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/business/millions-pounds-worth-panic-buying-food-heading-bin-2514080">result of panic buying fresh food</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1242159267400110084"}"></div></p>
<p>Supermarkets operate with highly-calibrated supply chains that are designed to replenish shelves every day. They now face two big problems, which is leading to empty shelves. One is that they are selling so much that they do not have the time they need to get stock back onto the shelves. The second is that their entire supply chain was not ready for the sudden surge in demand and so orders are being split more thinly across stores. </p>
<p>But these are short term issues. Because shops will be asking more from their factories, they will have been working around the clock to meet this demand. The sad irony is that when the backlog of orders finally comes through, the demand for nonperishable goods will have gone down because people have already stockpiled. </p>
<p>This is a classic supply chain phenomenon called “<a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/04/633ecdb037.pdf">the bullwhip effect</a>”. These irregular orders in the downstream of the supply chain (the shops) have a knock-on effect upstream of the supply chain (storage facilities and suppliers). </p>
<p>This variance then interrupts the smoothness of the supply chain process. When various links in the chain over- or underestimate the product demand, it results in worse provision overall.</p>
<h2>Supply chains intact</h2>
<p>According to the Confederation of Paper Industries, the UK uses around 6.7 billion toilet rolls a year, of which <a href="https://paper.org.uk/the-paper-industry/key-statistics/">90% are made in the UK</a>. The coronavirus will not cause this to change a great deal (although, with more people spending more time at home than before they will be responsible for providing their own toilet roll). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the supply chain is not broken. Warehouses are pushing out as much inventory as possible in a 24-hour period. And there’s no shortage of food. Food manufacturing has geared up to meet an increase in demand <a href="https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2020/03/17/Food-manufacturing-sector-increases-demand">and it is up by 50%</a>.</p>
<p>The majority of supermarkets operate using a “just-in-time” approach to deliveries. This means they have a constant carousel of stock being delivered and put on shelves, to be sold the next day, based on sophisticated models of what people normally buy. </p>
<p>They do not carry excess stock because it is cheaper to store it in big out-of-town warehouses with lower rents. Big retailers tend to restock overnight from their own distribution centres. Within two days, they can get more product from the manufacturer to restock their distribution centre. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/323317/original/file-20200326-132965-16zh3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stocks are kept offsite in warehouses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/unloading-big-container-trucks-warehouse-building-138179042">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The food supply chain is particularly resilient for a number of reasons. It is built to withstand various fluctuations in circumstances – particularly the weather – which can have a big effect on food storage and distribution, and the impact this has on a wide range of food. </p>
<h2>Contingency planning</h2>
<p>With cafes and restaurants forced to close, there are also a number of delivery services springing up to redirect their supplies to people’s homes. There is also scope for supermarkets to team up with cafes and restaurants, whether it’s to use their storage capacity or logistics and technology. </p>
<p>If things get really bad, supermarkets can also make their lives easier by limiting their product offerings. For example, there is no need to make 30 different kinds of sausages or 50 types of bread. We may not see the same levels of choice that we are accustomed to, but there is no need to panic about empty shelves in the long run. </p>
<p>The government can help supermarkets meet the sudden surge in demand by facilitating supermarkets, charities and other food services, to work together by proving a platform to share information and fund initial collaborations. This will help them to share resources, distribution depots, delivery vans and staff, as well as coordinate stock levels across the country. Further, supermarkets should relax specifications for fruit and vegetables in an effort to get more fresh produce onto shelves. For example, ugly fruit and vegetables, such as wonky carrots or bent cucumbers, should be acceptable by both consumers and suppliers. </p>
<p>The significant increase in online shopping has led to much higher demand for delivery trucks and drivers. Transport regulators can help by loosening trucking rules for food and other essentials. For example, there are a number of restrictions in cities like London to make roads safer for other users <a href="https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/services/london-lorry-control/about-llcs">along with environmental protections</a>. These could be relaxed to help speed up deliveries.</p>
<p>Ultimately, consumers are in the strongest position to help by trusting the supply chains that are in place to keep delivering essentials to stores. By shopping responsibly and thinking of others, we will play a big part in ensuring everyone can buy what they need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Manoj Dora does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By shopping responsibly and thinking of others, consumers will play a big part in ensuring everyone can buy what they need.Manoj Dora, Reader in Operations & Supply Chain Management, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1342812020-03-25T12:29:11Z2020-03-25T12:29:11ZCoronavirus fears over farmers markets could hit new growers hard – just when Americans need them most<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322346/original/file-20200323-112712-1h47a9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4369%2C2915&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shoppers in Brooklyn continue to buy produce at a farmers market.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-shop-in-a-farmers-market-on-a-spring-day-in-prospect-news-photo/1213936416?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The familiar sight of weekend shoppers brushing shoulders at farmers markets across the U.S. is under threat from the coronavirus and fears of its spread.</p>
<p>In Seattle, farmers markets have been <a href="https://durkan.seattle.gov/2020/03/to-prevent-further-spread-of-covid-19-city-of-seattle-to-temporarily-suspend-permitted-events/">suspended altogether</a>. In New York state – the epicenter of the U.S.’s fight against the virus – they <a href="https://agriculture.ny.gov/coronavirus">remain open</a>, but residents are being warned against gathering in groups and told to <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-new-york-state-pause-executive-order">practice social distancing</a>.</p>
<p>Such uncertainty is likely to hurt so-called “beginning farmers” – typically smaller-scale, start-up operations. As <a href="https://ag.purdue.edu/fnr/Pages/profile.aspx?strAlias=tamara17&intDirDeptID=15">an expert in diversified farming systems</a>, I can see vulnerable farmers closing down as a result of this crisis, and this could have a knock-on effect on the long-term food supply chain.</p>
<h2>Vibrant community</h2>
<p>Nearly 30% of U.S. farms are <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/index.php">run by farmers who have been in the business for fewer than 10 years</a>. In comparison to the general farming population, beginning farmers are more likely to be <a href="https://www.farmprogress.com/story-usda-grants-help-veterans-minority-farmers-started-16-116526-spx_1">women, people of color and military veterans</a>.</p>
<p>They also have an <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/index.php">average age of 46</a> – more than 10 years lower than the general farmer population’s average age of 57.5. </p>
<p>Beginning farmers form a vibrant and diverse part of the U.S. farming community. However, they are also among the most economically vulnerable of farmers. Since they are just starting out, they are often still formulating business plans, balancing farm finances, creating new marketing opportunities and establishing their farms’ viability.</p>
<p>They are also <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_0069_0069.pdf">less likely to farm commodity products</a> – crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat. Instead, they tend to focus on diversified fruits and vegetable crops, such as heirloom tomatoes, green beans and blueberries, depending upon the climate and soil conditions.</p>
<h2>Farm to table</h2>
<p>Beginner farmers also tend to find it harder to access capital investments or <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/700218.pdf">federal loan opportunities</a> that would provide support during inclement weather or a pandemic lockdown. </p>
<p>Clearly, this makes the <a href="https://www.agdaily.com/insights/2017-census-agriculture-beginning-farmers/">more than 900,000 beginning farmers</a> in the U.S. at risk from potential closures of farmers markets and farm-to-table restaurants due to coronavirus restrictions.</p>
<p>Beginning farmers typically farm on small acres of land, with a diverse array of crops, and sell to nontraditional supply chains, instead of large grocery stores. </p>
<p>Many small-scale beginning farmers have found success in the past decade due to the public’s increased interest in consuming local food. That has made farmers markets and community-supported agriculture important supply outlets. The value of <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_0002_0002.pdf">sales of local food and products direct to consumers</a> has more than doubled between 2012 and 2017. </p>
<p>These niche markets have increased engagement between farmers and consumers. The supply chain is based on local farmers modifying what they farm based on local consumer needs. This increased interaction has benefited both parties, but it has also left the system vulnerable to the realities of dealing with the current pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322348/original/file-20200323-112666-n2rmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sellers at farmers markets can reduce risk by pre-packing for customers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-shop-in-a-farmers-market-on-a-spring-day-in-prospect-news-photo/1213936429?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic puts these smaller businesses at great risk amid uncertainty about whether farmers markets will remain open. </p>
<p>The added challenge for farmers also pertains to their business model. <a href="https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/farm-loan-programs/farm-operating-loans/index">Farms incur nearly all of their costs</a> at the beginning of the growing season when farmers are purchasing seeds, growing seedlings and preparing the land. Without a market in place for these farmers, they will be more at risk of losing their business.</p>
<p>It is also much harder for small-scale farmers to get contracts to <a href="https://www.grocerydive.com/news/grocery--grocery-source-local-vegetables-fruit-produce/535172/">sell into large grocery stores</a>, so they will be disproportionately affected by any lengthy shutdown of restaurants or farmers markets.</p>
<h2>Growing hope</h2>
<p>A hopeful sign is that some places, such as California, have <a href="https://www.ksbw.com/article/farmers-markets-considered-essential-business-allowed-to-stay-open/31854444">deemed farmers markets essential places</a> where people can go to purchase food. </p>
<p>Farmers markets can be safe places for people to go to pick up local products at a minimum risk if protocols are put in place to <a href="https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/texas-farmers-market-remains-open-with-social-distancing/">increase social distance</a> and reduced handling of products, such as ordering online and then prepackaging the products into one box or bag per customer.</p>
<p>Most small-scale beginning farmers will have few options for marketing without the direct sales of their products to consumers. Without them, farming businesses will decrease, impacting the capability of growers in the U.S. of providing enough food, fiber, and flowers in the future.</p>
<p>There are some glimmers of hope for beginning farmers. By their very nature, they may have had to be creative in identifying new opportunities and innovative in their marketing approach – qualities that might make them innately prepared to adapt to the new conditions, such as moving their business model to online sales. What they need now is for society to ensure that some type of supply chain is in place for them to be able to capture the current demand.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134281/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tamara J Benjamin receives funding from United States Department of Agriculture. </span></em></p>Small-scale farmers are likely to be hit hard if open-air markets close due to coronavirus fears. This could have a longer-term impact on the food supply chain.Tamara J. Benjamin, Assistant Program Leader, Diversified Farming and Food Systems, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1337242020-03-16T17:51:29Z2020-03-16T17:51:29ZCoronavirus: The perils of our ‘just enough, just in time’ food system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320798/original/file-20200316-27643-1x6yovx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6240%2C3474&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An entire section of meat and poultry is left empty after panicked shoppers swept through in fear of the coronavirus at a grocery store in Burbank, Calif. on March 14, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Richard Vogel)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/toilet-paper-shortage.html">Toilet paper shortages</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html">profiteering from hand sanitizer</a> and empty shelves in grocery stores. </p>
<p>Thanks to COVID-19, governments in most industrialized nations are preparing for shortages of life’s necessities. If they fail, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuAsMTPywOM">riots over food may be inevitable</a>. Some wonder if we are responding appropriately to COVID-19, and it’s clear that recent events expose a fundamental flaw in the global systems that bring us our daily bread.</p>
<p>We live in a wondrous age when global supply chains seamlessly link farmers and consumers using the principles of “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjHdg8TGG8M">just enough, just in time</a>.” For years, companies have worked hard to keep inventories low, timing shipments to balance supply and demand using knife-edge accuracy.</p>
<p>In many ways, this system is a miracle. Low-cost food is one outcome. And if there’s a problem in one part of the supply chain, the global system is good at finding alternatives. (Mangoes from Asia gone bad? Try the mangoes from Central America!)</p>
<p>But with this abundance — and convenience — comes a hidden cost that COVID-19 has exposed: a loss of resilience. Our global food system depends on the tendrils of international trade to wrap the world in an ever more complex system of buyers, sellers, processors and retailers, all of whom are motivated to keep costs low and operations lean. </p>
<h2>Building resilience</h2>
<p>So when the supply chain system itself is thrown into question — as it is now thanks to COVID-19 — then the wheels threaten to come off the proverbial apple cart. COVID-19 shows that we need to wake up and realize that if we really want to be resilient, we need to build in more redundancies, buffers and firewalls into the systems we depend on for life. </p>
<p>In practical terms, this means we should be keeping <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/how-to-feed-nine-billion/">larger inventories and promoting a greater degree of regional self-sufficiency</a>. </p>
<p>These measures will help ensure that our communities don’t panic if the food trucks stop.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320802/original/file-20200316-27643-8k7ggw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A truck is loaded with containers full of apples ready to be shipped to the market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while this may sound sensible, high inventories and more regional self-sufficiency are, in fact, antithetical to the “just enough, just in time” approach that drives most of our economy, even though no one’s suggesting we need to be completely self-sufficient <a href="https://feeding9billion.com/F9B-Videos-Local-Food-Systems.htm">of the time</a>. </p>
<p>Take the systems that produce and distribute the corn, wheat and rice that fuel most of humanity’s calories. The <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/">latest United Nations report on the global grain system</a> contains some bad news. Last year, the world ate more grains than it produced within the year, and our carry-over stocks (defined as the amount of food we have, globally, at the end of the year to see us through to the next harvest) are declining.</p>
<p>The good news is that this decline comes after a run of good years where farmers delivered one monumental harvest after another. So our carry-over stocks started last year in pretty good shape and this means we’ve currently got about four months of food stored. But there’s a downward trend regarding those stockpiles, and this is worrisome.</p>
<h2>Climate change poses challenges</h2>
<p>But what if Mother Nature doesn’t play nice with us this year? </p>
<p>Climate change, after all, is making food harder to produce. What if we face a major drought in Europe and Asia like we did in 2010 to 2011? Or another big Midwestern drought similar to the situation in 2012 and 2013? And what if COVID-19 doesn’t go away by summer?</p>
<p>If any of these things happen, we may not have the buffers to protect ourselves. And it won’t be toilet paper and hand sanitizer we need to worry about. It might be wheat, rice and corn. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320805/original/file-20200316-27643-3wmjdn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Wheat is harvested in a Kansas field in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Charlie Riedel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, conventional wisdom is that the average city in North America has a three-day supply of fresh food (dried, canned and other preserved food supplies will last a bit longer). This, according to some, means that we are all only ever <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jan/11/nine-meals-anarchy-sustainable-system">“nine meals from anarchy.”</a> Luckily, North American grocery stores have sophisticated supply chains so no one is seriously suggesting that the panicked purchasing of the last few days that has emptied shelves will persist. Nevertheless, the systems we depend upon are, in many ways, fragile and inherently vulnerable. </p>
<p>In all likelihood, COVID-19 will pass and most of us will only suffer economic setbacks from lost wages and disruptions linked with cancelled classes, travel and meetings. But in the aftermath, it’s important to ask whether we — as a society — will treat this as a moment to learn a bit about the fragility of the modern world. </p>
<p>Will we work collectively to put resilience alongside efficiency as a primary driver for the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/food-blog/10-things-need-to-know-global-food-system">systems we depend upon each and every day to feed ourselves</a>?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Fraser receives funding from SSHRC, NSERC, Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation, Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Canada Research Chair Program, and the Arrell Family Foundation. Evan Fraser is on the board of the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security, a Fellow of the Royal Canadian Geographic Society, and a Member of the Royal Society of Canada's College of New Scholars. </span></em></p>COVID-19 is showing us we must work collectively to put resilience alongside efficiency as the primary drivers for the systems we depend upon each and every day for food.Evan Fraser, Professor, Director of the Arrell Food Institute and Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1198952019-07-11T13:55:02Z2019-07-11T13:55:02ZFood waste: using sustainable innovation to cut down what we throw away<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283543/original/file-20190710-44479-jb0dg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Our appetite for food is a serious problem. The huge amount of energy, land and water used to fill our supermarket shelves mean that modern overproduction and excessive consumerism are rapidly depleting resources and damaging the planet.</p>
<p>Yet still, <a href="http://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/en/">more than one-third</a> of the world’s food produce goes to waste every single year. This adds up to a staggering 1.3 billion tonnes of food, more than seven million tonnes of which is produced in the UK. </p>
<p>Now more than ever the survival of our food production is hinged on sustainable innovation. Here are some current ideas which attempt to effectively (or not so effectively) deal with food waste in the supply chain. We have given each type a “sustainability score” out of 20, based on five separate factors, including economic and environmental efficiency.</p>
<h2>Food waste revolution start-ups</h2>
<p>More than half of food waste in manufacturing and farming is classed as “avoidable” and accounts for <a href="http://www.wrap.org.uk/food-drink/business-food-waste/manufacturing">£1.4 billion of losses</a> in the UK. This has inspired a range of small businesses which use this waste to make new products. </p>
<p>London-based former chef Tom Fletcher, for example, founded <a href="https://www.rejuce.co.uk">Rejuce</a>, in 2012 and since then has turned over 250 tonnes of ugly wonky fruit and veg into juices and smoothies. A network of suppliers provides the company with local and low cost ingredients, eliminating their own disposal costs in the process.</p>
<p>Rejuce has been able to grow – now selling more than 100,000 bottles a year – by saving edible food from going to waste and turning it into nutritious products. </p>
<p>Meanwhile <a href="https://www.toastale.com">Toast Ale</a>, is a non-profit organisation which makes alcoholic drinks, including pale ales and craft lagers, from waste bread. It sources around 13,000 slices of bread discarded daily by sandwich manufacturers.</p>
<p>The byproduct of brewing is then processed and given to local farms for use as a highly nutritious animal feed. Selling online and through major British supermarkets Tesco and Waitrose, Toast Ale donates all its profits to <a href="https://feedbackglobal.org">Feedback</a>, a charity working to transform the global food system. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IrltZYI-M9k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>These businesses – and many others – are reshaping the way we perceive and use waste as a value adding resource, rather than something that needs to be thrown away.</p>
<p><strong>Sustainability score: 20</strong></p>
<h2>Anaerobic Digestion</h2>
<p>Anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities provide renewable energy and gas.
<a href="https://wykefarms.com">Wyke Farms</a>, one of the leading dairy manufacturers in the UK, is using this approach to power its factories. Its biogas digester plants break down organic matter from farmyard manure, cheese making, cider mills and bakeries into natural energy. </p>
<p>This electricity is then used to power manufacturing sites, and the additional power is fed back into the grid to provide clean electricity for the local community. Not only does this save enormous amounts on energy bills every year, but it also reduces waste generation from manufacturing, lowering methane emissions. </p>
<p>It does not stop there. The leftover material from AD plants are excellent fertilisers which are used on Wyke Farms land and given to local farmers to boost soil fertility. The company also collaborates with its suppliers to implement sustainable approaches that reduce environmental impacts and save money. </p>
<p>But AD does bring some challenges. It requires a large initial investment and might prevent further innovation in dealing with byproducts of farming and manufacturing. </p>
<p><strong>Sustainability score: 17</strong></p>
<h2>Burning and incineration</h2>
<p>Burning food is not good for the environment as it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There are also concerns over the health implications of incinerators due to their weak pollution monitoring systems. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/383927762/Green-party-report-on-incineration-and-recycling">report published</a> by the Green Party showed an increase of 5.5m tonnes of waste sent for incineration in the UK between 2012 and 2017, adding up to over 10m tonnes. With stagnating recycling and composting rates at around 11m tonnes in this period, in some areas <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/16/waste-incineration-set-overtake-recycling-england-greens-warn">more waste is being incinerated than recycled</a>. When examining a company, one should check how much burning contributes to their lower levels of waste. </p>
<p>Burning, incineration and AD are themselves energy consuming and costly. We could benefit from the energy that is generated through these methods, if the appropriate waste stream is used (non-recyclable waste, farmyard manure). But using recyclable or avoidable food waste which could be repurposed is a sheer waste of resources, time and labour that has gone into growing and processing food. </p>
<p><strong>Sustainability score: 6</strong></p>
<h2>How they compare…</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283535/original/file-20190710-44479-vzvrpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A graph comparing scores of each approach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mehrnaz Tajmir</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, as a business case, sustainable innovation is intrinsically sound. It reduces waste and lowers environmental impacts as well as saving millions each year through increasing supply chain efficiency. </p>
<p>More importantly, it is an organisational culture that encourages activities and ideas that increase environmental and financial efficiency and prevents false claims that fail to do so. Of course, there will be businesses which attempt to jump on the bandwagon, making false claims about sustainability and the environmental impact of their operation. </p>
<p>One way to differentiate between “revolution” vs “bandwagon” start-ups is to demand ever greater transparency and question where companies source their raw materials. As consumers it is our responsibility to ask questions and hold brands accountable in their use of sustainable innovation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Business minds using up leftovers.Mehrnaz Tajmir, PhD Candidate, University of BathBaris Yalabik, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Management, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1172032019-05-22T13:52:49Z2019-05-22T13:52:49ZHow combining and fermenting grains can help nutrition in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275629/original/file-20190521-23845-1tykc44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C602%2C4192%2C2610&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mixture of grains and crops keeps the doctor away.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the emergence of climate change, alternative solutions are needed to improve the availability of food. This is particularly true in Africa where most countries rely on rain to water their plants. Consequently, food becomes scarce during periods of drought. </p>
<p>Indigenous African crops can play a pivotal role, which is why we did <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ijfs.13998">research</a> on crops that are readily available in African countries and that are drought tolerant. These include sorghum, millets and cowpeas. </p>
<p>These crops contain the required nutrients to address macronutrient malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency. They also contain health-promoting components that offer protection against non-communicable diseases. </p>
<p>Because protein malnutrition and iron and zinc deficiencies continue to be a major <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/whos-africa-nutrition-report-highlights-increase-malnutrition-africa">nutritional problem</a> in developing countries, especially in Africa, we looked at how these crops could help overcome these problems. We also tried to assess how different grains can be combined and transformed into nutritious foods for the health and well-being of consumers in Africa.</p>
<p>In general, a food’s nutrient content can be affected by how it is prepared, and the unique combinations of different grains it contains. Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ijfs.13998">study</a> investigated the nutritional benefits of combining grain amaranth with sorghum to produce a fermented beverage. Amaranth has excellent <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/whos-africa-nutrition-report-highlights-increase-malnutrition-africa">protein quality</a> and can be used to complement the nutritional properties of staple foods that are mainly starch-based. </p>
<p>In addition, both fermentation and acidification with lactic acid can improve the nutritional quality of cereal‐based foods. We found that the fermentation process can make minerals such as iron and zinc in the beverages more easily absorbed by the body. </p>
<p>This is significant given the nutritional importance of these minerals and the role they play in the body, which is why they can help combat protein malnutrition and iron and zinc deficiencies.</p>
<h2>Three types of malnutrition</h2>
<p>There are three primary forms of malnutrition that are prevalent in Africa and are often referred to as the triple burden of malnutrition. The first is macronutrient malnutrition with <a href="https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1104623-overview">protein energy malnutrition</a> (which manifests as <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/313185.php">kwashiorkor or marasmus</a>) being a prime example. This form of malnutrition occurs when a person does not consume enough quality protein and calories.</p>
<p>The second form of malnutrition is harder to recognise because it is hidden. It involves a low intake of essential vitamins and minerals that are needed to fuel our bodies and is referred to as <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/micronutrient-deficiency">micronutrient deficiency</a>. Micronutrient deficiency can result in several health issues. </p>
<p>For example a lack of iron, which is commonly found in foods such as spinach and red meat, can result in iron deficiency anaemia. A lack of vitamin A, found in food such as mangoes and carrots, can lead to blindness.</p>
<p>The third form of malnutrition is the increase in non-communicable diseases because of bad eating habits or a low intake of the right foods. The outcomes vary but can manifest as diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers.</p>
<p>Indigenous African crops can play a pivotal role in tackling the triple burden of malnutrition. Not only do they contain the required nutrients to address macronutrient malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency, but they also contain health promoting components that offer protection against non-communicable diseases.</p>
<h2>Combining sorghum and grain amaranth</h2>
<p>While the wrong type of food can contribute to illnesses and disease, the right kind of food can prevent illness. To enhance the nutritional quality of foods, different grains can be combined in a single food product. </p>
<p>A typical example is the South African food “samp and beans” which is a combination of maize (a cereal) and beans (a legume). Such a combination produces a food with enhanced protein quality. </p>
<p>Another example is sorghum, which is an important food crop for people living in Africa’s semi-arid regions. Fermented sorghum beverages are popular in many sub-Saharan African countries and are of social, religious and therapeutic significance. An example of such a fermented beverage is mageu, which is consumed in much of southern Africa. </p>
<p>While sorghum is a good source of minerals and vitamins, its protein is of low quality. Grain amaranth, on the other hand, contains significant amounts of good quality protein. Combining grain amaranth with sorghum can produce a food that has enhanced nutritional quality.</p>
<p>The combination of grain amaranth with sorghum can also improve the quality of the protein contained in these beverages. Our study provides solutions to tackle both protein energy malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Our study on sorghum-grain amaranth beverage reported in this article is part of a project led by Purdue University, USA and funded by the USAID Feed the Future Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Mkandawire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Combining and fermenting readily available indigenous African crops can help counter malnutrition on the continent.Kwaku Gyebi Duodu, Associate professor, food chemistry, University of PretoriaElizabeth Mkandawire, Network and Research Manager: ARUA – UKRI GCRF FSNet Africa, University of PretoriaJohn Taylor, Professor of food sciences and research leader, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.