tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/globalization-16716/articlesGlobalization – The Conversation2024-01-12T13:29:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135212024-01-12T13:29:20Z2024-01-12T13:29:20ZParaguay’s Ciudad del Este: Efforts to force a busy informal commercial hub to follow global trade rules have only made life harder for those eking out a living<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549817/original/file-20230922-25-cd7gvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=110%2C482%2C4476%2C2966&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vendors at work on a bustling Ciudad del Este street packed with stalls.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer L. Tucker</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Paraguay’s Ciudad del Este is a busy <a href="https://financialtransparency.org/the-tri-border-area-a-profile-of-the-largest-illicit-economy-in-the-western-hemisphere/">South American contraband hub</a> where scrappy Paraguayan vendors and Brazilian traders mix with businessmen from places as far away as Lebanon and South Korea. This hive of activity <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-bank-heist-in-paraguays-wild-wild-west-reveals-the-dark-underbelly-of-free-trade-77125">moves billions of dollars’ worth of consumer goods</a> – everything from smartphones to whiskey. </p>
<p>The city was built as a commercial hub around low taxes and tariffs, benefiting both well-to-do traders and poor workers. In its bustling main market – eight square blocks packed with street vendors, brick-and-mortar businesses and cavernous shopping galleries – thousands of Paraguayans eke out a living selling fake Gucci handbags, fishing poles and even contact lenses.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4TDh378AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">scholar of urban planning</a>, I wanted to learn how this remote city of 300,000 people near <a href="https://iguazufalls.com/news/where-is-iguazu-falls-cities-and-airports/">South America’s spectacular Iguazu Falls</a> blossomed into a key node along a global trade route. </p>
<p>I also wanted to understand the role that thousands of informal Brazilian traders and Paraguayan street vendors have played in trading systems shaped by powerful countries and corporations.</p>
<p>While informal markets are common, poor workers in Ciudad del Este helped build an entire city oriented around global trade. As I <a href="https://ugapress.org/book/9780820364483/outlaw-capital/">explain in my new book</a>, “Outlaw Capital: Everyday Illegalities and the Making of Uneven Development,” policies aiming to legalize trade in Ciudad del Este have hurt these vendors and traders while protecting the illegal commercial activities conducted by more powerful people. </p>
<p><iframe id="kVkXC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kVkXC/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Informal work</h2>
<p>Globally, more than <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_626831/lang--en/index.htm">2 billion people</a> work informally, or about 2 in every 5 <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-young-working-elderly">people who are of working age</a>.</p>
<p>Informal work includes a wide range of jobs and gigs without state recognition or benefits, like health care or retirement payments.</p>
<p>In Paraguay, an estimated <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1039971/informal-employment-share-paraguay/">70% of all workers are informal</a>.</p>
<p>Yet because law is biased toward formal economies, informal workers often must break rules for their livelihoods. </p>
<h2>Stroessner’s creation</h2>
<p>Traders, small and large, profit through arbitrage. That is, they take advantage of price differences.</p>
<p>To create arbitrage opportunities in Ciudad del Este, the Paraguayan government has long kept its taxes and tariffs low. This strategy, <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/gatoramiro/economas-ilegales-en-la-triple-frontera-paraguay-argentina-y-brasil-fernando-rabossi">recommended by the International Monetary Fund in 1956</a>, has promoted the legal reexportation of merchandise, where goods imported into Paraguay are speedily exported to neighbors.</p>
<p>Alfredo Stroessner, a brutal dictator who <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3338752">ruled Paraguay from 1954 to 1989</a>, inaugurated <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1987/07/11/467987.html?pageNumber=4">Paraguay’s tradition of state-sanctioned smuggling</a>. He even called it the “<a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/1988/1215/osmug.html">price of peace</a>” because he gained allies by allocating contraband routes to potential rivals.</p>
<p>In the decades since <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/triple-trouble/">Stroessner founded Ciudad del Este in 1957</a>, a regional alliance of traders and local politicians gained control of its contraband networks. As I explain in my book, they continue to have powerful backers in the national government. </p>
<p>The volume of this trade is astounding, at times <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-bank-heist-in-paraguays-wild-wild-west-reveals-the-dark-underbelly-of-free-trade-77125">exceeding the country’s gross domestic product</a>. At its peak in 2011, the value of imported goods legally reexported from Paraguay to its neighbors reached <a href="https://www.cadep.org.py/uploads/2014/12/Informe-Especial-de-Comercio-Exterior-2014-full-color.pdf">US$5 billion</a>. The estimated value of contraband that year was twice as high: <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dd80bec8-2be5-11df-8033-00144feabdc0">$10 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Alongside contraband and legal commerce, there are also <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/triple-trouble/">allegations of human trafficking</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45610738">weapons trafficking</a> and <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/fglcxx/v8y2007i1p26-39.html">other criminal activity</a> tied to Ciudad del Este. </p>
<h2>‘Globalization from below’</h2>
<p>Tens of thousands of Paraguayan vendors and small-scale Brazilian traders do business in Ciudad del Este. While many are poor, I found that some had gained a foothold in the middle class.</p>
<p>Gustavo Lins Ribeiro, a Brazilian anthropologist, argues that the city exemplifies “<a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/etnografica.3074">globalization from below</a>” because poor workers can profit from global trade, not just international corporations. I heard one local leader call street vendors the “the lungs of Paraguay” because they draw in money from the global economy and circulate it to poor communities across the country.</p>
<p>By the 1990s and 2000s, thousands of independent Brazilian traders, called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.31389/jied.135">sacoleiros</a>” – a Portuguese word meaning “people hauling big bags” – crossed the Friendship Bridge into Paraguay every day. They resold fake leather jackets, linens, watches, CDs and other merchandise they bought in Ciudad del Este in street markets across Brazil.</p>
<p>To gather these goods, sacoleiros traveled from all over Brazil to trade in Ciudad del Este, sometimes journeying for days on buses.</p>
<h2>Eyeing ‘notorious markets’</h2>
<p>In the 2000s, powerful countries promoted trade liberalization and trade rule enforcement through the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact1_e.htm">newly established World Trade Organization</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. government and Brazilian trade groups worried that the flow of counterfeit goods and contraband from Paraguay curbed corporate profits and harmed the U.S. economy. Since 2011, the State Department has expressed these concerns in annual reports on what it calls “<a href="https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/2022%20Notorious%20Markets%20List%20(final).pdf">notorious markets</a>.” </p>
<p>The people engaged in this bustling border commerce and their advocates counter that free trade advocates write trade rules to suit their own interests. </p>
<p>Under pressure from the U.S., Brazil sought to curtail smuggling, but failed to distinguish between sacoleiros struggling to make a living and <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Counterfeit-Itineraries-in-the-Global-South-The-human-consequences-of-piracy/Pinheiro-Machado/p/book/9780367594725">big-time contraband and drug runners</a>. Instead, Brazil treated them all as dangerous criminals.</p>
<p>Brazilian officials cracked down on sacoleiros, enforcing laws that they had previously ignored, increasing border surveillance and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9493.2012.00463.x">confiscating sacoleiros’ merchandise in raids</a>, and casting them into debt.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/economia/investigacion-de-los-puertos-ilegales-de-ciudad-del-este-esta-paralizada-552686.html">pushed informal traders onto riskier routes</a>, like the networks of clandestine ports along the Parana River and Lake Itaipu, which they need to navigate with small wooden skiffs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People lug large amounts of stuff in huge, colorful bags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558493/original/file-20231108-15-ede25p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazilians carrying goods bought in Ciudad del Este approach the Friendship Bridge, which links the Paraguayan city with Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazilians-carry-goods-they-bought-in-ciudad-del-este-as-news-photo/106896478?adppopup=true">Norberto Duarte/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Formalizing sacoleiros</h2>
<p>As Brazil criminalized sacoleiros, these informal workers fought for policies that would protect their livelihoods.</p>
<p>A Brazil-Paraguay plan called the Unified Trade Regime – <a href="https://www.ultimahora.com/brasil-reglamenta-la-ley-los-sacolerios-n236685">Régimen de Tributo Unificado</a> in Spanish – sought to integrate the sacoleiros into the formal economy and transform them into “micro-entrepreneurs.” </p>
<p>In the new system, registered sacoleiros pay lower taxes on specific consumer goods purchased from registered shops and tracked through an electronic system. The system was designed to differentiate between two flows of goods sold to foreigners: merchandise purchased by bargain-hunting tourists for their own use, and items sacoleiros buy in bulk in Paraguay to sell across the border in Brazil.</p>
<p>Before this system took effect, all visitors could buy merchandise duty-free up to an official limit that fluctuated between $150 and $500.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WL0805/S00430/cablegate-calling-all-smugglers-brazilian-sacoleiros-bill.htm?from-mobile=bottom-link-01">Despite U.S. attempts to sink the plan</a>, it went into effect in 2012; afterward, only registered businesses could participate in the Unified Trade Regime.</p>
<p>Informal street vendors could not meet these requirements, and were excluded.</p>
<p>Another glitch: Negotiators ignored research recommending a total tax rate of no more than 22%, so as to make smuggling not worth the costs and risks, I learned from a Paraguayan official. Instead, they set the total tax rate at 25%.</p>
<p>Few businesses registered, and the <a href="https://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/suplementos/tres-fronteras/en-tres-anos-de-vigencia-del-rtu-el-resultado-es-escaso-1399351.html">plan faltered</a>.</p>
<p>While the U.S. opposed formalizing sacoleiros, the <a href="https://www.abc.com.py/edicion-impresa/economia/buscan-mayor-formalizacion-empresarial-935481.html">U.S. Agency of International Development funded the research</a> behind a similar plan to formalize trade in the electronic goods sold by more affluent businesses. I found this plan reduced their tax burden to just over 5%.</p>
<p>Differential treatment for informal workers and wealthy traders reflects an imbalance in their negotiating power. I also argue it reflects <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(20)30421-8">common biases against informal workers</a> and their economic realities.</p>
<h2>Protecting some illegal transactions</h2>
<p>Yet state officials protected some illegal arrangements, like ex-President Horacio Cartes’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-paraguay-dumps-billions-of-illicit-cigarettes-on-the-global-market-107679">contraband cigarette trade</a>. Despite multiple international complaints, <a href="https://www.moopio.com/informes-ratifican-impunidad-en-la-franja-de-itaipu-durante-era-cartes.html">political pacts protected the clandestine networks</a> transporting his cigarettes to regional markets. </p>
<p>Informal economies can provide livelihood for the millions excluded from formal work, <a href="https://theconversation.com/street-vendors-make-cities-livelier-safer-and-fairer-heres-why-they-belong-on-the-post-covid-19-urban-scene-141675">enliven cities and provide important urban services</a>. I believe efforts to force everyone to follow the rules must be matched by a commitment to protect the livelihoods of poor workers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213521/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer L. Tucker received funding from the Fulbright Program, the Social Science Research Council, the Berkeley Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies and the School of Architecture and Planning at the University of New Mexico</span></em></p>A smuggling crackdown has threatened the livelihoods of the people who are just scraping by in this South American arbitrage economy.Jennifer L. Tucker, Associate Professor of Community & Regional Planning, University of New MexicoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015382023-04-22T16:20:10Z2023-04-22T16:20:10ZFast fashion still comes with deadly risks, 10 years after the Rana Plaza disaster – the industry’s many moving pieces make it easy to cut corners<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522252/original/file-20230421-26-yyte0s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C3%2C1019%2C679&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists in Dhaka demand safe working conditions in 2019, on the anniversary of the Rana Plaza collapse.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/industry-all-bangladesh-council-activists-protest-to-news-photo/1139075620?adppopup=true">Mamunur Rashid/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 24, 2013, a multistory garment factory complex in Bangladesh called Rana Plaza collapsed, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-22476774">killing more than 1,000 workers</a> and injuring another 2,500. It remains the worst accident in the history of the apparel industry and one of the deadliest industrial accidents in the world.</p>
<p>Several factories inside the complex <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2014/04/26/these-retailers-involved-in-bangladesh-factory-disaster-have-yet-to-compensate-victims/?sh=3444108c211b">produced apparel for Western brands</a>, including Benetton, Primark and Walmart, shining a spotlight on the unsafe conditions in which a sizable portion of Americans’ cheap clothing is produced. The humanitarian tragedy hit home as wealthy nations’ shoppers wrestled with their own complicity and called for reforms – but a decade later, progress is still patchy.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://michiganross.umich.edu/faculty-research/faculty/ravi-anupindi">a professor of operations and supply chain management</a>, I believe it is important to understand how the complex and fragmented supply chains that are the norm in the clothing industry create conditions where unsafe conditions and abuse can flourish – and make it difficult to assign responsibility for reforms.</p>
<h2>Shamed into action?</h2>
<p>Rana Plaza was <a href="https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2022/06/05/the-worst-industrial-disasters-in-bangladesh-since-2005">not the first garment industry accident in Bangladesh</a>. While the government had stringent building codes “on the books,” <a href="https://ces.ulab.edu.bd/sites/default/files/Building_Code_Analysis-hi.pdf">they were rarely enforced</a>. Most workers lacked the information and power to demand safe working conditions.</p>
<p>Yet the fact that the Rana Plaza collapse was not only a humanitarian crisis, but a public relations crisis, prompted swift action by international organizations and Western brands and clothing retailers. A campaign for <a href="https://ranaplaza-arrangement.org/">full and fair compensation</a> for families of victims was launched immediately, facilitated by <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/lang--en/index.htm">the International Labor Organization</a>, a U.N. agency. Within a few months, two initiatives were designed to bring garment factories in Bangladesh up to international standards: the European-led <a href="https://bangladeshaccord.org/">Accord for Fire and Building Safety</a>, and the American-led <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/bangladesh-alliance-for-bangladesh-workers-safety-announces-end-of-its-tenure/">Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Uniformed rescue workers stand on top of a slab on top of a collapsed cement building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522273/original/file-20230421-1623-jworr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rescue and recovery personnel on the site of the Rana Plaza factory collapse in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BangladeshBuildingCollapse/7f235631839d40e4ad3cbba1e0825166/photo?Query=(renditions.phototype:horizontal)%20AND%20%20(%22rana%20plaza%22)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=297&currentItemNo=295">AP Photo/Wong Maye-E</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the two initiatives differed in some important ways, both shared the common goal: to improve building and fire safety by leveraging the purchasing power of the member companies. In other words, Western brands would insist that production partners get up to standard or take their business elsewhere.</p>
<p>Altogether, the two agreements covered about 2,300 supplier factories. The coalitions conducted factory inspections to identify structural and electrical deficiencies and developed plans for factories to make improvements. The initiatives also laid the groundwork to form worker safety committees <a href="https://iosh.com/news/bangladesh-project-success-story/">and to train workers</a> to recognize, solve and prevent health and safety issues. Member companies set aside funds for inspections and worker training, <a href="https://cleanclothes.org/issues/faq-safety-accord">negotiated commercial terms</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/alliance-sets-plan-to-finance-bangladesh-factory-upgrades-1417791607">facilitated low-cost loans</a> for factory improvements.</p>
<p>Both were five-year agreements: the Alliance <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/bangladesh-alliance-for-bangladesh-workers-safety-announces-end-of-its-tenure/">was sunsetted in 2018</a>, whereas the Accord operated for a few more years before handing operations over to the locally created <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/bangladesh-rmg-sustainability-council-to-take-over-accord-operations-after-281-days/">Readymade Sustainability Council</a> in June 2020.</p>
<h2>The record since</h2>
<p>The onus and expense of making these improvements, however, were largely to be borne by the suppliers – a substantial financial burden for many factories, especially considering the low cost and slim profit margins of the clothes they were producing. </p>
<p>Under the Alliance and the Accord, thousands of factories were inspected for building and fire safety, identifying problems such as lack of fire extinguishers and sprinkler systems, improper fire exits, faulty wiring and structural issues. At the end of five years, both initiatives reported that <a href="https://issuu.com/nyusterncenterforbusinessandhumanri/docs/nyu_bangladesh_ranaplaza_final_rele?e=31640827/64580941">85%-88% of safety issues were remediated</a>. Around half of the factories completed more than 90% of initial remediation, while over 260 of the original 2,300 factories under the initiatives were suspended from contracting with member companies.</p>
<p>In addition, more than 5,000 beneficiaries, including injured workers and dependents of victims, were compensated <a href="https://ranaplaza-arrangement.org/">through the Rana Plaza Arrangement</a>, receiving an average of about US$6,500.</p>
<p>Overall, I believe that these initiatives have been successful in bringing safety issues to the forefront. In terms of infrastructure improvements, however, while there has been decent progress, much still needs to be done; for example, the initiatives covered just about <a href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/%7Etwadhwa/bangladesh/downloads/beyond_the_tip_of_the_iceberg_report.pdf">one-third of all the garment factories in Bangladesh</a>. Importantly, neither addressed company sourcing practices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a pink shawl stares at the camera, with a green field amid tall buildings behind her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522275/original/file-20230421-26-smyb9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Family of Rana Plaza victims look at their relatives’ graves as they mark the disaster’s anniversary in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-april-24-2017-relatives-of-rana-plaza-news-photo/672595062?adppopup=true">Rehman Asad/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Clothes yesterday and today</h2>
<p>To understand why so much apparel manufacturing takes place in substandard conditions, we need to understand the underlying economic forces: extensive outsourcing to countries with low wages in the quest to meet demand for more – and cheaper – clothing to sell to customers in the West.</p>
<p>In the 1960s, the average American family <a href="https://www.kqed.org/lowdown/7939/madeinamerica">spent 10% of its income on clothing</a>, buying 25 pieces of apparel – almost all of it made in the United States. Fifty years later, around the time of the Rana Plaza disaster, the average household was spending only about 3.5% of its income on clothing – but buying three times as many items, 98% of which were imported.</p>
<p>Over these decades, low-income countries in Asia and Latin America started producing more garments and textiles. Apparel production is labor-intensive, meaning these countries’ lower wages were a huge attraction to brands and retailers, who gradually started shifting their sourcing.</p>
<p>On a $30 shirt, for example, a typical retailer markup is close to 60%. The factory makes a profit of $1.15, and the worker <a href="https://theconversation.com/years-after-the-rana-plaza-tragedy-bangladeshs-garment-workers-are-still-bottom-of-the-pile-159224">makes barely 18 cents</a>. Were a similar shirt produced in the U.S., labor costs would <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/05/02/world/asia/bangladesh-us-tshirt/index.html">be closer to $10</a>.</p>
<p>As labor costs rose in China, Bangladesh became <a href="https://qz.com/389741/the-thing-that-makes-bangladeshs-garment-industry-such-a-huge-success-also-makes-it-deadly">a very appealing alternative</a>. Garment exports now account for 82% of <a href="https://bgmea.com.bd/page/Export_Performance">the country’s export total</a>, and the industry <a href="https://www.bsr.org/en/blog/what-if-all-garment-workers-in-bangladesh-were-financially-included">employs 4 million people</a>, about 58% of whom are women. </p>
<p>The growth of this sector has <a href="https://dspace.bracu.ac.bd/xmlui/handle/10361/482">reduced poverty</a> significantly and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.01.006">empowered women</a>. To meet the rapid growth of the apparel industry, however, many buildings were converted to factories as quickly as possible, often without requisite permits. </p>
<h2>Everyone and no one</h2>
<p>A common way that foreign companies source products from low-cost countries like Bangladesh is through intermediaries or agents. For example, when a brand places a large order with an authorized factory, the factory in turn may <a href="https://issuu.com/nyusterncenterforbusinessandhumanri/docs/nyu_bangladesh_ranaplaza_final_rele?e=31640827/64580941">subcontract part of the production to smaller factories</a>, often without informing the brand.</p>
<p>This highly competitive environment, with people at each step of the process looking for the lowest price and no guarantee of longer-term relationships, gives suppliers incentives to cut corners – particularly when under extreme pressure to deliver on time. This can translate into <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bangladesh-worker-rights/bangladesh-urged-to-stop-worker-abuse-in-garment-industry-idUSKBN20W25O">exploitative labor practices</a> or unsafe conditions that violate local laws, but enforcement capacity is weak. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman cries, her face hidden in her brightly colored headscarf." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522277/original/file-20230421-14-ssu9z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nilufer Begum, an injured garment worker who survived the Rana Plaza disaster, during a 2018 interview with AFP in her small tea stall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photograph-taken-on-april-17-2018-nilufer-begum-an-news-photo/949797208?adppopup=true">Munir Uz Zaman/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In their constant quest for lower prices, buyers may turn a blind eye to these practices. The supply chain’s opaqueness, especially when brands do not source directly, makes it difficult to investigate and remediate these practices. Since the 1990s, international <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7591/9781501727290-004/pdf">scrutiny of labor conditions</a> has grown, but reform efforts largely ignored building and fire safety, the prime reason for the Rana Plaza collapse. Because multiple buyers would often use the same factory, no single buyer felt obligated to invest in the supplier to ensure better conditions.</p>
<p>Garments traverse a complex global supply network by the time they reach stores thousands of miles away. Workers are caught in this web, exploited by factory management that is seldom held responsible by governments either <a href="https://www.npr.org/2013/05/09/182637164/bangladeshs-powerful-garment-sector-fends-off-regulation">unwilling or unable to enforce laws</a>. Western brands escape the scrutiny of their governments by outsourcing production to low-cost countries and absolve themselves of direct responsibility. And consumers, eager for a bargain, shop for the lowest price. </p>
<p>This complex system makes it hard to assign ethical responsibility, because everyone, and therefore no one, is guilty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravi Anupindi is affiliated with Fair Labor Association. </span></em></p>Ten years after the collapse at Rana Plaza in Bangladesh, the garment industry’s deadliest disaster, reforms are incomplete. The opaqueness of today’s complex supply chain is part of the problem.Ravi Anupindi, Professor of Technology and Operations, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016252023-03-28T18:08:26Z2023-03-28T18:08:26ZAhead of the game or falling behind? Canada’s readiness for a borderless, global workforce<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517455/original/file-20230324-22-e97j49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=362%2C6%2C4098%2C2445&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With geographic proximity no longer being a precondition of employment, the 2020s could see a shift in jobs being parcelled out to the best and most affordable talent, regardless of location.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ahead-of-the-game-or-falling-behind-canada-s-readiness-for-a-borderless--global-workforce" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Three years ago, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200417/dq200417a-eng.htm">nearly five million Canadians</a> suddenly shifted to working remotely at the outset of the pandemic. While some workers have returned to in-person work, <a href="https://fsc-ccf.ca/research/the-shift-to-remote-work/">many are still in remote positions</a>.</p>
<p>The full impacts of this experience are still being understood. In a <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/article/public-policy/out-of-office-the-public-policy-implications-of-remote-work/">new report</a> for the <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/public-policy/">CSA Public Policy Centre</a>, where I hold an executive position, I explored several policies affected impacted by remote work, including housing, productivity and inclusion.</p>
<p>The report found that remote work could have far-reaching impacts on many areas, including helping Canada meet its climate change goals. If all workers who could work remotely did so, it would be the equivalent of eliminating the carbon footprint of roughly 600,000 Canadians.</p>
<p>But one area that has received less attention is how Canada can prepare itself to compete in an increasingly globalized labour market. Firms now understand that geographic proximity is not a precondition of employment. Many companies, such as <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9171987/tech-companies-offices/">Shopify</a> and <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/28/airbnb-commits-to-fully-remote-workplace-live-and-work-anywhere/">Airbnb</a>, have shifted to remote and hybrid operations as a result of the pandemic. </p>
<p>In the same way that <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-001-x/2009102/article/10788-eng.htm">manufacturing jobs shifted to lower-cost jurisdictions</a> in the early 2000s, the 2020s could be the decade that sees white-collar jobs being parcelled out to the best and most affordable talent, regardless of location.</p>
<h2>A borderless global workforce</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/business/economy/jobs-offshoring.html">Cultural norms are often cited as a reason why knowledge work</a> (i.e., professional, management and technical occupations) cannot easily be offshored. An auto assembly worker need not be fluent in English, for example, but a lawyer or accountant must skillfully navigate complex workplace environments. </p>
<p>Yet, in a world where everyone is consuming the same content on Netflix and can leverage ChatGPT to draft conversational emails, the cultural gaps between Calgary, Krakow and Mumbai are narrower than ever.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An open laptop with a virtual meeting taking place on it seen from over someone's shoulder." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517457/original/file-20230324-1282-l2ejn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many companies have shifted to remote and hybrid operations as a result of the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Capital is highly mobile today and <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/superstars-the-dynamics-of-firms-sectors-and-cities-leading-the-global-economy">superstar firms, ranging from Amazon to Alphabet to Apple,</a> have already shown their willingness to shop around for the most business-friendly tax and regulatory regimes.</p>
<p>There is little reason to believe that labour will be any different. What does this mean for Canada? A shift towards a more distributed, borderless global workforce will not necessarily lead to job losses for Canada, but it will be disruptive and lead to transitions both within sectors and for workers. </p>
<h2>Winning over remote workers</h2>
<p>How can Canada ensure its workers have the right skills to compete and win globally? We need to adopt a two-track approach that focuses both on making Canada a source of talent for global firms, and a preferred homebase for firms and in-demand knowledge workers.</p>
<p>In the face of a rapidly changing employment landscape for workers wrought by technological change, Canada needs to increase both the amount spent on training and labour market supports, as well as the effectiveness of those expenditures.</p>
<p>Historically, Canada has <a href="https://data.oecd.org/socialexp/public-spending-on-labour-markets.htm">spent only one-third as much as Denmark has on labour market supports</a> such as upskilling and re-training. <a href="https://www.star.dk/en/about-the-danish-agency-for-labour-market-and-recruitment/flexicurity/">Denmark’s generous Flexicurity model</a> is often held up as a model of effective labour market policy.</p>
<p>Canadian firms don’t fare much better than governments do in preparing workers for disruption, <a href="https://fsc-ccf.ca/research/employer-sponsored-skills-training/">spending only an average of $240 per employee</a> on training annually.</p>
<h2>Social infrastructure needed</h2>
<p>In a world of increasingly mobile firms and workers, <a href="https://theconversation.com/immigrants-could-be-the-solution-to-canadas-labour-shortage-but-they-need-to-be-supported-194613">we need to double-down on the social infrastructure</a> that will attract the best and the brightest employees. </p>
<p>Safe communities, diversity and tolerance, strong public health care and education systems and thriving cities are all critical ingredients in this regard. <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-education-crisis-canada-is-failing-to-tackle-lost-year-in-k-12-education-165348">Some of these systems</a> have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-looming-health-care-crisis-a-shortage-of-health-workers-would-be-disastrous-152709">significantly strained during the pandemic</a>, and will require focused resources and policy attention to rebuild. </p>
<p>Delivering more affordable housing might stand atop the list of issues that will be key to attracting and retaining remote workers — a <a href="https://www.csagroup.org/wp-content/uploads/CSA-RemoteWork-ResearchReport-EN_Accessible-Updated.pdf">December 2022 survey by the CSA Public Policy Centre</a> found that 71 per cent of Canadians would consider moving to communities with lower costs of living for a remote role.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-pushing-canadians-out-of-cities-and-into-the-countryside-144479">The coronavirus pandemic is pushing Canadians out of cities and into the countryside</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The high costs of living in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where typical home ownership costs <a href="https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/homebuyer-blues-dreadful-affordability-gets-worse-in-canada/">chew up over 85 per cent of median household income</a>, could be a deal-breaker for many workers with more affordable options available to them.</p>
<p>Succeeding in the global war for talent will boost the prospects of economic growth in the years to come. As the world’s labour market flattens, Canada has an opportunity to stand out with a thoughtful approach that emphasizes skills and builds upon our quality-of-life strengths.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sunil Johal is currently a member of the Expert Panel on Portable Benefits providing advice to the Ontario government on the design and implementation of a portable benefits program and a member of the Expert Panel providing the City of Toronto with advice on its Long Term Financial Plan.</span></em></p>A shift towards a more distributed, borderless global workforce will not necessarily lead to job losses for Canada, but it will be disruptive and require restructuring in the labour market.Sunil Johal, Professor in Public Policy and Society, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920802023-01-10T13:30:47Z2023-01-10T13:30:47ZChina now publishes more high-quality science than any other nation – should the US be worried?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503136/original/file-20230104-18-tav51z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C143%2C6347%2C4347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In 2022, Chinese researchers published more scientific papers on artificial intelligence than any other nation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/artificial-intelligence-concept-brain-and-cpu-with-royalty-free-image/1322017261?phrase=china%20flag%20science&adppopup=true">Mf3D/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>By at least one measure, China now <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers">leads the world in producing high-quality science</a>. My research shows that Chinese scholars now publish <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04291-z">a larger fraction of the top 1% most cited scientific papers</a> globally than scientists from any other country. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://glenn.osu.edu/caroline-s-wagner">policy expert and analyst</a> who studies how <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OBu0OHEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">governmental investment in science, technology and innovation</a> improves social welfare. While a country’s scientific prowess is somewhat difficult to quantify, I’d argue that the amount of money spent on scientific research, the number of scholarly papers published and the quality of those papers are good stand-in measures.</p>
<p>China is not the only nation to drastically improve its science capacity in recent years, but China’s rise has been particularly dramatic. This has left U.S. <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/maintaining-military-edge-over-china-pub-86901">policy experts and government officials worried</a> about how China’s scientific supremacy will <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-the-challenge-to-global-order/">shift the global balance of power</a>. China’s recent ascendancy results from years of governmental policy aiming to be tops in science and technology. The country has taken explicit steps to get where it is today, and the U.S. now has a choice to make about how to respond to a scientifically competitive China.</p>
<h2>Growth across decades</h2>
<p>In 1977, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping introduced the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Modernizations">Four Modernizations</a>, one of which was strengthening China’s science sector and technological progress. As recently as 2000, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11024-015-9273-6">U.S. produced many times the number of scientific papers as China</a> annually. However, over the past three decades or so, China has invested funds to grow domestic research capabilities, to send students and researchers abroad to study, and to encourage Chinese businesses to shift to manufacturing high-tech products. </p>
<p>Since 2000, China has sent an estimated <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/30/c_137077465.htm">5.2 million students and scholars to study abroad</a>. The majority of them studied science or engineering. Many of these students remained where they studied, but an increasing number <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scz056">return to China</a> to work in well-resourced laboratories and high-tech companies.</p>
<p>Today, China is second only to the U.S. in how much it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe5456">spends on science and technology</a>. Chinese universities now produce the largest <a href="https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20210910110221730">number of engineering Ph.D.s</a> in the world, and the quality of Chinese universities has <a href="https://www.shanghairanking.com/">dramatically improved in recent years</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="ODHkO" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ODHkO/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Producing more and better science</h2>
<p>Thanks to all this investment and a growing, capable workforce, China’s scientific output – as measured by the number of total published papers – has increased steadily over the years. In 2017, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-00927-4">Chinese scholars published more scientific papers</a> than U.S. researchers for the first time.</p>
<p>Quantity does not necessarily mean quality though. For many years, researchers in the West wrote off Chinese research as low quality and often as simply <a href="https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate">imitating research from the U.S. and Europe</a>. During the 2000s and 2010s, much of the work coming from China did not receive significant attention from the global scientific community.</p>
<p>But as China has continued to invest in science, I began to wonder whether the explosion in the quantity of research was accompanied by improving quality. </p>
<p>To quantify China’s scientific strength, my colleagues and I looked at citations. A citation is when an academic paper is referenced – or cited – by another paper. We considered that the more times a paper has been cited, the higher quality and more influential the work. Given that logic, the top 1% most cited papers should represent the upper echelon of high-quality science.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I counted how many papers published by a country were in the top 1% of science as measured by the number of citations in various disciplines. Going year by year from 2015 to 2019, we then compared different countries. We were surprised to find that in 2019, Chinese authors <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers">published a greater percentage of the most influential papers</a>, with China claiming 8,422 articles in the top category, while the U.S had 7,959 and the European Union had 6,074. In just one recent example, we found that in 2022, Chinese researchers published three times as many papers on artificial intelligence as U.S. researchers; in the top 1% most cited AI research, Chinese papers outnumbered U.S. papers by a 2-to-1 ratio. Similar patterns can be seen with China leading in the top 1% most cited papers in nanoscience, chemistry and transportation.</p>
<p>Our research also found that Chinese research was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-020-03579-2">surprisingly novel and creative</a> – and not simply copying western researchers. To measure this, we looked at the mix of disciplines referenced in scientific papers. The more diverse and varied the referenced research was in a single paper, the more interdisciplinary and novel we considered the work. We found Chinese research to be as innovative as other top performing countries.</p>
<p>Taken together, these measures suggest that China is now <a href="https://www.global-briefing.org/2014/01/the-origins-of-chinas-copycat-culture/">no longer an imitator</a> nor producer of only low-quality science. China is now a scientific power on par with the U.S. and Europe, both in quantity and in quality. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Joe Biden surrounded by a number of people sitting at a desk in front of the White House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503138/original/file-20230104-105135-py8hfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On August 9, 2022, President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law to support the growth of U.S. research and technology firms as a way to counter China’s scientific growth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/52385519067/">The White House/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fear or collaboration?</h2>
<p>Scientific capability is intricately tied to both military and economic power. Because of this relationship, many in the U.S. – from <a href="https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file">politicians</a> to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai">policy experts</a> – have expressed concern that China’s scientific rise is a threat to the U.S., and the government has taken steps to slow China’s growth. The recent <a href="https://www.amchamchina.org/us-china-agriculture-and-food-partnership/">Chips and Science Act of 2022</a> explicitly limits cooperation with China in some areas of research and manufacturing. In October 2022, the Biden administration put restrictions in place to limit China’s access to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/07/china-high-tech-chips-restrictions/">key technologies with military applications</a>.</p>
<p>A number of scholars, including me, see these fears and policy responses as rooted in a nationalistic view that doesn’t wholly map onto the global endeavor of science.</p>
<p>Academic research in the modern world is in large part driven by the exchange of ideas and information. The results are published in publicly available journals that anyone can read. Science is also becoming ever more <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2230-9">international and collaborative</a>, with researchers around the world depending on each other to push their fields forward. Recent collaborative research <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00570-0">on cancer</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236307">COVID-19</a> and <a href="https://www.amchamchina.org/us-china-agriculture-and-food-partnership/">agriculture</a> are just a few of many examples. My own work has also shown that when researchers from China and the U.S. collaborate, they produce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/550032a">higher quality</a> science than either one alone.</p>
<p>China has joined the ranks of top scientific and technological nations, and some of the concerns over shifts of power are reasonable in my view. But the U.S. can also benefit from China’s scientific rise. With many global issues facing the planet – like <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2021/10/28/rebuilding-us-chinese-cooperation-on-climate-change-the-science-and-technology-opportunity/">climate change</a>, to name just one – there may be wisdom in looking at this new situation as not only a threat, but also an opportunity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Wagner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2014, Chinese researchers published more papers than any other country for the first time. In 2019, China overtook the U.S. as the No. 1 publisher of the most influential papers.Caroline Wagner, Milton & Roslyn Wolf Chair in International Affairs, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910372022-09-20T23:24:25Z2022-09-20T23:24:25ZFed keeps focus on US economy as the world tilts toward a recession that it may be contributing to<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485733/original/file-20220920-18-tvy2ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=102%2C86%2C3492%2C2306&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Fed has a mandate that keeps its focus on the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FinancialMarketsWallStreet/7a9a609ec46d4f4389a007e4af49e29a/photo?Query=federal%20reserve%20flag&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=36&currentItemNo=13">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve holds inordinate sway over the world’s economies – yet it acts, in some ways, like they don’t really matter. </p>
<p>Its power is primarily because of the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-20211006.html">dominance of the U.S. dollar</a>, which soared in recent months as the Fed’s <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">aggressive interest rate hikes</a> made the greenback more attractive to investors. But this has a downside for other countries because it is fueling inflation, raising the cost of borrowing and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/central-bank-rate-hikes-risk-global-recession-in-2023?sref=Hjm5biAW">increasing the risk of a global recession</a>. </p>
<p>If you only paid attention to the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm">words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell</a>, however, you probably would have no idea this is happening. He hasn’t said a peep in his public speeches about the significant risks to the global economy as central banks jack up interest rates to tame inflation – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/key-takeaways-from-fed-decision-to-raise-rates-75-basis-points?srnd=premium">including the Fed’s 0.75 percentage point increase on Sept. 21, 2022</a>. </p>
<p>This may seem a bit odd that the Fed would appear to be so blasé about the global economy that it arguably leads. Yet as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=VxWst50AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">finance scholar</a>, I believe it makes perfect sense – though there are risks.</p>
<h2>The Fed’s domestic focus</h2>
<p>The Federal Reserve is <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm">mandated to focus on the U.S. economy</a>, and it takes this job very seriously. </p>
<p>While central banks are aware of all global economic data, they focus on their own economies, helping them do what is best for their own nations. In the U.S., that means the Fed is focused on improving the American economy through
<a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/the-fed-and-the-dual-mandate#:%7E:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20System%20has,other%20words%2C%20conducting%20monetary%20policy.">stable prices and full employment</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, when the U.S. economy is slowing too quickly and people are losing jobs, such as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/28/961372699/us-economy-slows-sharply-as-pandemic-resurges">early in the pandemic</a>, the Fed <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">lowers interest rates</a> – no matter the impact on other countries. Similarly, when the economy is growing but consumer prices are rising too fast, the central bank raises interest rates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hands hold and pick up US dollar bills next to euros at an exchange counter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485925/original/file-20220921-9184-4fclkl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. dollar is the world’s main reserve currency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EuropeEconomy/314bfcbc4d44474083da9a5c4b8a0178/photo?Query=us%20dollar%20exchange&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1171&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>And its global impact</h2>
<p>Yet it’s unavoidable that the Fed’s policies will influence economies, companies and citizens in virtually every country in the world.</p>
<p>While all central banks influence the rest of the world, the Fed has a much larger impact because of the size of the U.S. economy – it <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-gdp">remains by far the largest in absolute terms</a> – and the prominence of the U.S. dollar in international markets and trade. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nber.org/digest/digestsep18/debt-markets-are-biased-toward-home-country-currencies">Approximately half of the world’s international debt is denominated</a> in <a href="https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/acute-dollar-dominance/">dollars</a>, which means countries need to pay interest and principle on what they borrow in greenbacks. The dollar has soared <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy">almost 15% this year relative to a basket of foreign currencies</a>, largely as a result of the Fed interest rate hikes that began in March. That means it’s, on average, 15% more expensive to finance those dollar-denominated debts – and for some countries, it could be a lot more.</p>
<p>Moreover, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-20211006.html">about 60% of all global foreign exchange reserves</a> – that’s the money central banks hold to protect the value of their own currencies – are in dollars. And since <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-20211006.html">most major commodities</a> <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/markets/259645/understanding-how-oil-and-currency-prices-are-connected/">like</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/in-the-oil-market-the-strong-dollar-is-the-worlds-problem/2022/06/08/acec9ba8-e6e8-11ec-a422-11bbb91db30b_story.html">oil</a> and <a href="https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html">gold</a> are priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes everything cost a lot more for businesses and consumers in every country. </p>
<p>Finally, when U.S. interest rates are high relative to those in other countries, more foreign investment flocks to the U.S. to get more bang for their buck. Since there’s only so much money to go around, this drains <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1101202/whats-the-impact-of-the-strong-dollar-on-my-portfolio">investment</a> from other <a href="https://tylerpaper.com/news/business/what-does-a-strong-dollar-mean-to-investors/article_57fa9361-bac5-5854-8fb0-1ef18231f0ce.html">economies</a>, especially emerging markets. And it means <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-the-us-federal-reserve-bank-holds-the-world-in-its-hands-190936">they have to raise interest rates</a> to keep foreign direct investment flowing into their countries, which can hurt their local economies.</p>
<h2>Risks in a global world</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, focusing solely on the domestic economy has its own risks.</p>
<p>It may sound cliche, but we do live in a global, interconnected world – something demonstrated powerfully by the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply chain issues that repeatedly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/business/economy/biden-supply-chain.html">rippled across the world</a>. American businesses depend on other countries for supplies, workers and consumers.<br>
That means even if the Fed manages a proverbial soft landing and is able to reduce inflation without causing a recession, a global downturn may still ultimately reach American shores. This could threaten much of the Fed’s success if the global slowdown results in <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/07/26/blog-weo-update-july-2022">international instability or food insecurity</a>.</p>
<p>So while I believe the Fed is correct to keep its focus on the U.S. economy and lift rates as much as it deems necessary, I’ll be looking closely at how the central bank’s economic projections evolve. If the data shows the U.S. economy’s inflation problems diminishing, the Fed may be able to begin to think a bit less about what’s happening in its own backyard and more about the impact of its policies on the rest of the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>D. Brian Blank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fed’s recent rate hikes are contributing to higher prices and growing recession risks around the world, yet there are good reasons why the US central bank has to keep its focus domestic.D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876782022-08-01T12:25:41Z2022-08-01T12:25:41ZInflation is spiking around the world – not just in the United States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476382/original/file-20220727-15-mm5ak8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rates are spiking in most comparable countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chart-on-a-laptop-computer-with-banknotes-and-coins-on-4-news-photo/1362689276">Jesus Hellin/Europa Press via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm">9.1% increase in U.S. consumer prices</a> in the 12 months ending in June 2022, the highest in four decades, has prompted <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/13/june-cpi-report-inflation-fed-biden">many</a> <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/video/3-warning-signs-9-1-170210085.html">sobering</a> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html">headlines</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, annual inflation in Germany and the U.K. – countries with comparable economies – ran nearly as high: 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively, for the 12 months ending in June 2022. In Spain, <a href="https://data.imf.org/">inflation has hit 10%</a>. </p>
<p>It might seem like U.S. policies brought on this predicament, but <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rRWXpyYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">economists like me</a> doubt it because <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-inflation-graphic-idUSKCN24O20J">inflation</a> is <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/15/in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world-inflation-is-high-and-getting-higher/">spiking everywhere</a>, with few exceptions. <a href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">Rates averaged 9.65%</a> in the 38 largely wealthy countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development through May 2022.</p>
<p>What revved up those <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/apr/2021-year-high-inflation">price increases starting in early 2021</a>?</p>
<p><iframe id="UZccs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UZccs/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Scarcity put pressure on prices everywhere</h2>
<p>When the COVID-19 pandemic began, demand for computers and other high-tech goods soared as many people switched from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/09/success/remote-work-covid-pandemic-one-year-later/index.html">working in offices to clocking in at home</a>.</p>
<p>Computer chip manufacturers struggled to keep up, leading to chip shortages and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-semiconductors-chips-shortage/">higher prices for a dizzying array of devices</a> and machines requiring them, including refrigerators, cars and smartphones.</p>
<p>It’s not just chips. Many of the goods Americans consume, such as cars, televisions and prescription drugs, are <a href="https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/ft900/final_2021.pdf">imported from all corners of the world</a>.</p>
<h2>Supply chain strains</h2>
<p>On top of problems tied to supply and demand changes, there have been major disruptions to how goods move to manufacturers and then onto consumers along what’s known as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-americans-are-still-seeing-empty-shelves-and-long-waits-with-christmas-just-around-the-corner-168635">supply chain</a>.</p>
<p>Freight disruption, whether by ship, train or truck, has interfered with the delivery of all sorts of goods since 2020. That’s caused the <a href="https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-dry-historical-data">cost of shipping goods to rise sharply</a>.</p>
<p>These massive shipping disruptions have exposed the disadvantages of the popular <a href="https://www.constructiondive.com/news/inventory-lean-just-in-time-shortage-supply-chain/610029/">just-in-time</a> practice for managing inventory. </p>
<p>By keeping as little of the materials needed to make their products on hand, companies become more vulnerable to shortages and transportation snafus. And when manufacturers are unable to make their products quickly, shortages occur and prices surge. </p>
<p>This approach, especially when it involves the reliance on far-flung suppliers, has left businesses much more susceptible to market shocks.</p>
<h2>Labor complications</h2>
<p>The beginning of the pandemic also sent <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-hitting-tipped-workers-hard-141515">shock waves through labor markets</a> with <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/07/28/majority-of-u-s-workers-changing-jobs-are-seeing-real-wage-gains/">lasting effects</a>.</p>
<p>Many businesses either fired or furloughed large numbers of workers in 2020. When governments began to relax restrictions related to the pandemic, many employers found that significant numbers of their <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/01/12/why-the-pandemics-record-breaking-quit-rates-are-a-boon-to-workers/">former workers were unwilling to return to work</a>.</p>
<p>Whether those workers had <a href="https://www.investmentnews.com/covid-early-retirement-rearch-213183">chosen to retire early</a>, seek new <a href="https://www.investmentnews.com/covid-early-retirement-rearch-213183">jobs offering a better work-life balance</a> or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/06/06/long-covid-disability-advocacy/">become disabled</a>, the results were the same: labor shortages that required higher wages to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/06/10/worker-shortage-raising-wages/">recruit replacements and retain other employees</a>.</p>
<p>Again, all of these dynamics are <a href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">occurring globally</a>, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG">not just in the U.S.</a></p>
<h2>War in Ukraine compounded these woes</h2>
<p>Russia’s war on Ukraine, which began officially on <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interactive/ap-russia-war-crimes-ukraine/">Feb. 24, 2022</a>, has also exacerbated inflation by interfering with the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/how-the-ukraine-war-is-affecting-oil-and-gas-markets/">global supply of fuels</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/how-the-ukraine-war-is-affecting-oil-and-gas-markets/">grains</a>. </p>
<p>The conflict’s effects are reverberating around the globe and <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.htm">fueling inflation</a>.</p>
<p>Russia is the world’s <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/company-insights/082316/worlds-top-10-oil-exporters.asp">second-largest exporter of crude oil</a>. Sanctions against Russian imports, combined with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-gas-cut-europe-hits-economic-hopes-after-ukraine-grain-deal-2022-07-25/">Russia halting oil shipments to European countries</a> in retaliation, has led to disruptions in the global oil market.</p>
<p>As Europe buys more oil from the Middle East, demand for oil from that region increases, prompting price increases. <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/">Crude prices jumped</a> from $101 per barrel in late February 2022, to $123 a month later. Prices stayed high for several months but by late July were around $100 a barrel again.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/food-prices-fao-index-cereals-commodities-exports/">Food prices have increased substantially</a> in the U.S. and elsewhere, partly due to this conflict. Ukraine possesses some of the most fertile soil in the world and is the <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/corn-exports-country/">third-largest exporter of corn</a>.</p>
<p>Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian crops and its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/20/world/europe/russia-blockade-ukraine-grain.html">blockade of Ukrainian exports</a> have led to <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-is-pushing-global-acute-hunger-to-the-highest-level-in-this-century-181414">significant price increases worldwide</a> for <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/war-ukraine-catastrophic-effect-global-food-supply-prices/story?id=84418447">agricultural commodities</a>.</p>
<h2>How will the world respond?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/08/what-do-people-think-about-trade-and-globalization/">Support for globalization and international trade has waned</a> in recent years. Given supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine fueling inflation, this trend will likely continue.</p>
<p>However, as an economist, I believe the benefits of free and open trade still outweigh current challenges.</p>
<p>In my view, there isn’t anything fundamentally wrong with the globalization that <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/how-fix-globalization-82947">cannot be fixed</a>. But, like quelling inflation and alleviating supply chain bottlenecks, it will take time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Decker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor market disruptions, supply chain strains and the war in Ukraine have taken a toll everywhere.Christopher Decker, Professor of Economics, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822052022-05-16T17:57:40Z2022-05-16T17:57:40ZClimate change is now on the menu at seafood restaurants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462902/original/file-20220512-22-fd3ssw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C90%2C6679%2C4124&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Warmer-water preferring fish species like sardines and squid may soon dominate seafood menus on the west coast of Canada. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/climate-change-is-now-on-the-menu-at-seafood-restaurants" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Restaurant menus across the West Coast of Canada will soon see an influx of squid and sardine dishes, while the popular sockeye salmon makes a slow exit. As it turns out, <a href="https://news.ubc.ca/2022/04/21/vancouver-restaurant-menu-squid-sockeye-salmon/">climate change may have something to do with this</a>.</p>
<p>Restaurants update their menus all the time and this often goes unnoticed by diners. These changes are driven by culinary trends, consumer preferences and many environmental and socio-economic factors that affect the availability of the ingredients. According to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01244-6">a recent study</a> published by my research team, we can now add climate change to this list. </p>
<p>We found that as the ocean temperature rises, many marine fish and shellfish move from their traditional habitats towards the North and South Poles in search of cooler waters. This movement of fish stocks affects the availability of seafood catch, compelling chefs to rewrite the menus of seafood restaurants on the West Coast of Canada.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/species-on-the-move-4-ways-conservation-can-adapt-in-an-era-of-climate-change-179254">Species on the move: 4 ways conservation can adapt in an era of climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate change affects our ocean and fisheries</h2>
<p>The latest report from the UN’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> confirmed that climate change is impacting the ocean, fish stocks and fisheries through ocean warming, loss of sea ice, <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/ocean-acidification">ocean acidification</a>, heatwaves, <a href="https://www.iucn.org/theme/marine-and-polar/our-work/climate-change-and-oceans/ocean-deoxygenation">ocean deoxygenation</a> and other <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/">extreme weather events</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Underwater bleached white corals surrounded by fish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463076/original/file-20220513-24-cnheuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fish stocks are affected by ocean warming, acidification, loss of sea ice and many other effects of climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The impacts of warming-induced ecological shifts are also seen in our fisheries. Fish catches around the world are increasingly dominated by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12156">species that prefer warmer water</a>.</p>
<p>We applied an index called “mean temperature of catch” to measure such changes in species of fish caught along the West Coast of Canada, and found that the catch of warmer-water species in this region has increased from 1961 to 2016. </p>
<h2>Relating seafood on menus to climate change</h2>
<p>But how exactly do these changes in fisheries catch dictate the food that appears in our plates? <a href="https://news.ubc.ca/tag/john-paul-ng/">My co-author John-Paul Ng</a> and I decided to tackle this question ourselves by focusing our efforts on the West Coast of Canada and the U.S. where many restaurants serve seafood.</p>
<p>We looked at present-day menus from restaurants in these areas, along with menus — some dating back to the 19th century — taken from historical archives in city halls and local museums. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A restaurant menu from 1888" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463081/original/file-20220514-21-ipvlc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caption Hotel Vancouver 1888 dinner menu. Restaurant menus show the seafood selection at different periods in time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(City of Vancouver Archives, AM1519-PAM 1888-17)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After looking at 362 menus, we used a similar approach to the one we developed to study fisheries catches and calculated a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01244-6">mean temperature of restaurant seafood</a>.” This index represents the average preferred temperature across all seafood species that appeared on the sampled menus from restaurants in a city for a specific time period. This index is a tool to help us gauge whether our restaurants are serving more or less warm and cold water seafood. </p>
<p>We found that the average preferred water temperature of fish and shellfish appeared in our menu increased to 14 C in recent times (2019-21) from 9 C in 1961-90 period. </p>
<p>This increase in the preferred water temperature of fish on restaurant menus is connected to changes in sea water temperature and the temperature-related changes in the composition of fish species caught during the same time period.</p>
<h2>More squid and sardine dishes</h2>
<p>Ocean warming is starting to change the variety of seafood available. </p>
<p>Driven by the higher ocean temperature in the northeast Pacific Ocean, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702043104">the Humboldt squid — a large, predatory squid species</a> that inhabits the eastern Pacific Ocean — is now making more frequent appearances on present-day restaurant menus in Vancouver.</p>
<p>British Columbia once had a commercially important Pacific sardine fishery, which was a common restaurant seafood. After the fishery collapsed in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/f94-048">mid-1940s</a>, the fish seldom appeared in our sampled restaurant menus.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A school of fish in the ocean water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463080/original/file-20220514-26-1fd1kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research shows that sardines will soon become more abundant in B.C. waters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to research conducted by colleagues in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0196127">fisheries research</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285">by our team at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries</a>, the sardines, which prefer warmer water, will soon make a big comeback on the West Coast of Canada. We expect that more sardine dishes will start appearing on the menus of restaurants here.</p>
<h2>Responding to changing seafood availability</h2>
<p>Globalization and the diversification of cuisines have brought a wider array of seafood options to coastal cities such as Vancouver and Los Angeles. Imported and farmed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.12.004">seafood are increasingly common ingredients in menus</a>.</p>
<p>As climate change continues to shuffle species’ distribution in ocean waters, we expect that climate-induced changes to seafood menus at restaurants will become even more pronounced. </p>
<p>Our study on restaurant menus underscores the <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/climate-crisis-may-destroy-aquatic-food-systems-and-livelihoods-economies-79066">wide-ranging impacts of climate change on our food system</a>. In cases where alternative seafood ingredients are available and consumer preferences are flexible, the impacts on our social, economic and cultural well-being may be limited. However, substantial <a href="https://www.vancity.com/viewport/mobile/SharedContent/documents/pdfs/News/Vancity-Report-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Seafood-in-BC-2015.pdf">negative consequences</a> are likely to be felt by many vulnerable communities that do not have the capacity to adapt to such changes. </p>
<p>Global and local actions to support both climate change adaptation and mitigation are essential if we want the ocean to continue to provide food for the people around the world who rely on it for nutritional security.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William W. L. Cheung receives funding from NSERC, SSHRC, CIHR, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation.</span></em></p>As the ocean temperature rises, many marine species are moving toward the north and south poles in search of cooler waters, thus rewriting the menus of seafood restaurants on the West Coast of Canada.William W. L. Cheung, Professor and Director, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750302022-05-01T15:04:46Z2022-05-01T15:04:46ZCritical race theory and feminism are not taking over our universities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460392/original/file-20220428-4047-ybhlo5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=98%2C116%2C5892%2C3835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">United States Rep. Robert Johnson, D-Natchez, centre, and other members of the House express their objections to the banning of teaching of Critical Race Theory in Mississippi in March. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: This story is part of series that also includes live interviews with some of Canada’s top social sciences and humanities academics. Click <a href="https://www.meetview.ca/sshrc20220503/">here</a> to register for this free event, on May 3 at 2 p.m. EDT, co-sponsored by The Conversation and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</em></p>
<p>Conservative observers everywhere are complaining about a <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/critical-race-theory-database-colleges-universities">supposed surge</a> in feminist and critical race theories being taught in colleges and universities. </p>
<p>In Hungary, the government went even further <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2018/10/17/hungary-officially-ends-gender-studies-programs">and banned gender studies master’s degrees</a> country-wide. Their reasoning: to avoid the spread of ideas about the social construction of gender. </p>
<p>In the United States, Republican lawmakers have embarked <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/map-where-critical-race-theory-is-under-attack/2021/06">on a war</a> against critical race theory at lower levels of education, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/02/mississippi-anti-critical-race-theory-law-whitewashing-history">fearing it will indoctrinate their kids</a> even before they get to higher education institutions.</p>
<p>Many believe universities are spending too much money to <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/critical-race-theory-database-colleges-universities">“infuse”</a> feminist and critical race approaches, which risk messing up curriculum and fostering division. Is this actually true? Are feminist and critical race studies taking over our classrooms and universities? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters seen holding placards." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4006%2C2446&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447059/original/file-20220217-27-88r8o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protest against the teaching of critical race theory outside the New Mexico Public Education Department in Albuquerque.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Cedar Attanasio)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My personal experience, as well as my research, points to the contrary. When I was a graduate student in international relations (IR) from 2011 to 2020, gender approaches were barely addressed, or were compartmentalized to one single week of the year. Since then, I have attended or taught 10 international relations courses at three Canadian universities in both French and English. In all courses, I noticed a trend of marginalization of non-western and non-masculine approaches to world politics. </p>
<p>To test and explore the inconsistency between this growing public fear of these theories invading our classrooms with my own recent experience, I analyzed the contents of 50 introductory syllabi for international relations courses in North America and Europe. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isp/ekab009">I found confirmed a pattern related to my personal experience:</a> race and gender studies are silenced or marginalized in western introduction to international relations courses.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1491728695677145092"}"></div></p>
<h2>Pink for a week</h2>
<p>Over half of international relations instructors in western countries simply do not address gender, feminism or women. Only three per cent of mandatory and optional readings assigned by instructors address gender or feminist aspects of the world.</p>
<p>For example, one syllabus devoted four weeks to globalization, without addressing <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/care-economy/lang--en/index.htm">care work</a> or the <a href="https://pmpress.org/index.php?l=product_detail&p=1086">international sexual division of labour</a>. Another syllabus had seven weeks on various regional and world wars, without mentioning <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/03058298880170030801">feminist definitions of security</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com.co/books/about/Gender_War_and_Militarism.html?id=om3yy1JoS34C&redir_esc=y">gendered impacts of militarization</a>, how <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Masculinity-and-New-War-The-gendered-dynamics-of-contemporary-armed-conflict/Duriesmith/p/book/9780367221492">masculinity influences war</a>, <a href="https://wappp.hks.harvard.edu/publications/mothers-monsters-whores-womens-violence-global-politics">gendered violence</a> or the impact of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21647259.2016.1192242">gender in peacebuilding</a>. </p>
<p>Of the 23 syllabi that do mention gender, 78 per cent of them (18 of 23) adopt the one-week-only philosophy. This compartmentalization condenses gender research to one meagre week, the sacrosanct “women’s week.” In students’ minds, this reduces gender to an easily dismissed sectoral framework. In short, you are either interested in war or you are interested in gender — you cannot be both.</p>
<h2>Race and colonialism barely mentioned</h2>
<p>International relations has also been criticized for being “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/03/why-is-mainstream-international-relations-ir-blind-to-racism-colonialism/">blind to racism</a>.” The ethnocentricity of the field of international relations has been called out <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12171">again</a> and <a href="https://www.routledge.com/International-Relations-from-the-Global-South-Worlds-of-Difference/Tickner-Smith/p/book/9781138799103">again</a>, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2016.1153416">again</a> and <a href="https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/364801/mod_resource/content/1/waever_1998.pdf">again</a>. </p>
<p>My research confirms that race studies are rarely mentioned — in only seven syllabi (14 per cent). As for postcolonial studies, they are only mentioned in 17 syllabi (34 per cent). In comparison, liberalism appears in 38 syllabi (76 per cent). </p>
<p>The lists of historical events we present to our students are also dominated by the western world. For example, the Cold War is listed as an important event in 25 syllabi, but de/colonization processes are only listed in three syllabi and slavery in only one course plan.</p>
<p>Siphamandla Zondi, professor of international relations at the University of Johannesburg, notes that describing the field as <em>international</em> is a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2018.1418202">masquerade</a>.” International relations courses pretend to be about everyone, but in fact they are predominantly about western countries and their white citizens (even ignoring racialized or Indigenous populations).</p>
<p>Indeed, scholars from the Global South are marginalized in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isp/ekz006">reading lists</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viz062">textbooks</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0305829819872817">research</a>, including in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1332/251510818X15272520831157">international feminist journals</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="22 flags representing mostly western countries fly in front of a blue sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447072/original/file-20220217-27-1pgq1ke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Too often, international relations courses only focus on western countries and their white citizens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A more complex — less masculine and western — story</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/asherblackdeer/status/1438549432044302336">lack of inclusion</a> of women and Global South authors in reference lists is not <em>only</em> a problem of representation. It also means that masculine and western point of views are perpetuated in our teaching. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-II/Forces-and-resources-of-the-European-combatants-1939">story of the Second World War</a> usually includes the Axis and the Allies, the evolution of armaments, the details of German imperialism in Europe and the military support of the United States and Canada.</p>
<p>A more complex — less masculine and western — story would add that this <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/gender-home-front">war changed the face of western societies</a>, as women replaced men combatants on the job market and did not want to leave it upon their return. It would also mention proxy wars and Global South men and women fighting alongside Europeans in foreign battles.</p>
<p>A western tale of international development might start in 1947, with U.S. President <a href="https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/lesson-plans/conflicting-views-point-iv">Harry Truman speaking for the first time</a> of “underdeveloped” countries. It would speak of the establishment of western aid organizations like the World Bank. </p>
<p>A more <a href="https://ecosociete.org/livres/perdre-le-sud">international account</a> would throw the net wider and might start with the appropriation of Global South wealth and knowledge by European colonizers, the destruction of living conditions of Indigenous peoples and the brutalization of African populations contributing to the ongoing enriching of capitalists in Britain and the United States. It would tie the concept of development with North/South inequalities, not only with western aid in the Global South.</p>
<h2>Change ahead is slow</h2>
<p>One hopeful marker of change can be seen in academic conferences and publications. Between 2000 and 2010, presentations addressing gender at the annual International Studies Association (ISA) conference have increased by <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Feminism-and-International-Relations-Conversations-about-the-Past-Present/Tickner-Sjoberg/p/book/9780415584609">400 per cent</a>. </p>
<p>It seems, however, that conference organizers also fall into similar traps as international relations course instructors. They marginalize presenters into the feminist box: on more than 320 feminist, gender and queer papers at the ISA conference in 2021, only 71 were placed in mainstream “non-gender” panels. </p>
<p>My perception is that gender scholars are slotted to go to a gender-specific panel on security but not the more front-and-centre panel on security.</p>
<p>Teaching (or not teaching) race or gender approaches influence how we present the world to scholars-to-be and to the leaders of tomorrow. This, in turn, will affect which policies and research will be prioritized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, one thing is certain: these concepts are not yet mainstreamed in western classrooms. And they are certainly not taking over universities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458965/original/file-20220420-25-2p7c58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.meetview.ca/sshrc20220503/">Click here to register for In Conversation With Maïka Sondarjee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maïka Sondarjee receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>An analysis of international relations syllabi shows race and gender studies are barely mentioned.Maïka Sondarjee, Professeure adjointe, International Development and Global Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1682332021-09-21T12:34:00Z2021-09-21T12:34:00ZGlobal shortage of shipping containers highlights their importance in getting goods to Amazon warehouses, store shelves and your door in time for Christmas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421930/original/file-20210917-25-vd07kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C8%2C5928%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The global economy depends on shipping containers. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LargestContainerShip/6dbf5e66df744e19bd5a1d4432fca14b/photo?Query=shipping%20AND%20containers&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1423&currentItemNo=30">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Take a look around you.</p>
<p>Perhaps you’re snacking on a banana, sipping some coffee or sitting in front of your computer and taking a break from work to read this article. Most likely, those goods – as well as your smartphone, refrigerator and virtually every other object in your home – once were loaded onto a large container in another country and traveled thousands of miles via ships crossing the ocean before ultimately arriving at your doorstep. </p>
<p>Today, an estimated <a href="https://www.oecd.org/ocean/topics/ocean-shipping/">90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea</a>, with 60% of that – including virtually all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-shipping">about US$14 trillion</a> of the world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box. </p>
<p>In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ecFsBp0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I study</a> – would not exist. </p>
<p>A recent shortage of these containers <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/a-perfect-storm-for-container-shipping/21804500">is raising costs</a> and <a href="https://www.ship-technology.com/features/global-shipping-container-shortage-the-story-so-far/">snarling supply chains of thousands of products</a> across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that, from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Roman fresco depicts a Nilotic scene with pygmies in a boat loaded with amphorae." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422182/original/file-20210920-15-1gf9c1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ceramic containers called amphorae were often used by the Greeks and others to transfer liquids like wine as well as grains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/roman-fresco-depicting-a-nilotic-scene-with-pygmies-in-a-news-photo/985000060">PHAS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trade before the container</h2>
<p>Since the dawn of commerce, <a href="https://crawfordpackaging.com/automation-and-innovations/history-of-packaging">people have been using</a> boxes, sacks, barrels and containers of varying sizes to transport goods over long distances. <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/phoenicians-early-lessons-economics">Phoenicians in 1600 B.C. Egypt ferried</a> wood, fabrics and glass to Arabia in sacks via camel-driven caravans. And hundreds of years later, the Greeks used <a href="https://phys.org/news/2011-10-ancient-greek-ships-wine.html">ancient storage containers known as amphorae</a> to transport wine, olive oil and grain on triremes that plied the Mediterranean and neighboring seas to other ports in the region. </p>
<p>Even as trade grew more advanced, the process of loading and unloading as goods were transferred from one method of transportation to another remained <a href="https://www.globaltranz.com/history-of-supply-chain-management/">very labor-intensive, time-consuming and costly</a>, in part because containers came in all shapes and sizes. Containers from a ship being transferred onto a smaller rail car, for example, often had to be opened up and repacked into a boxcar. </p>
<p>Different-sized packages also meant space on a ship could not be effectively utilized, and also created weight and balance challenges for a vessel. And goods were more likely to experience damage from handling or theft due to exposure.</p>
<h2>A trade revolution</h2>
<p>The U.S. military began <a href="https://www.plslogistics.com/blog/the-history-of-containers">exploring the use of standardized small containers</a> to more efficiently transport guns, bombs and other materiel to the front lines during World War II.</p>
<p>But it was not until the 1950s that <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/the-truck-driver-who-reinvented-shipping">American entrepreneur Malcolm McLean</a> realized that by standardizing the size of the containers being used in global trade, loading and unloading of ships and trains could be at least partially mechanized, thereby making the transfer from one mode of transportation to another seamless. This way products could remain in their containers from the point of manufacture to delivery, resulting in reduced costs in terms of labor and potential damage.</p>
<p>In 1956 McLean <a href="https://visionproject.org/images/img_magazine/pdfs/international_shipping.pdf">created the standard cargo container</a>, which is basically still the standard today. He originally built it at a length of 33 feet – soon increased to 35 – and <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/management/leaders-and-success/malcom-mclean-invented-better-shipping-containers/">8 feet wide and tall</a>.</p>
<p>This system dramatically reduced the cost of loading and unloading a ship. In 1956, <a href="https://traderiskguaranty.com/trgpeak/history-shipping-containers/">manually loading a ship cost $5.86 per ton</a>; the standardized container cut that cost to just 16 cents a ton. Containers also made it much easier to protect cargo from the elements or pirates, since they are made of durable steel and remain locked during transport. </p>
<p>The U.S. made great use of this innovation <a href="https://traderiskguaranty.com/trgpeak/history-shipping-containers">during the Vietnam War</a> to ship supplies to soldiers, who sometimes even used the containers as shelters. </p>
<p>Today, the <a href="https://www.discovercontainers.com/a-complete-history-of-the-shipping-container/">standard container size is 20 feet long</a>, eight feet wide and nine feet tall – a size that’s become known as a “20-foot-equivalent container unit,” or TEU. There are actually a few different standard sizes, such as 40 feet long or a little taller, though they all have the same width. One of the key advantages is that whatever size a ship uses, they all, like Lego blocks, fit neatly together with virtually no empty spaces.</p>
<p>This innovation made the modern globalized world possible. The quantity of <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-shipping/">goods carried by containers soared</a> from 102 million metric tons in 1980 to about 1.83 billion metric tons as of 2017. Most of the container traffic <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/253988/estimated-containerized-cargo-flows-on-major-container-trade-routes/">flows across the Pacific Ocean</a> or between Europe and Asia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The Ever Given cargo ship loaded with shipping containers appear stuck in the mud along the Suez Canal in March 2021" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422183/original/file-20210920-21-1fy86a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ever Given was stuck for almost a week in the Suez Canal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EgyptSuezCanal/a3546d6baaf44a0ca0aca54eedc5b556/photo?Query=ever%20AND%20given&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=310&currentItemNo=38">AP Photo/Mohamed Elshahed</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ships get huge</h2>
<p>The standardization of container sizes has also led to a surge in ship size. The more containers packed on a ship, the more a shipping company can earn on each journey.</p>
<p>In fact, the average size of a container ship <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">has doubled in the past 20 years alone</a>. The largest ships sailing today <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/business/economy/container-ships-suez-canal.html">are capable of hauling 24,000 containers</a> – that’s a carrying capacity equivalent to how much a <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">freight train 44 miles long</a> could hold. Put another way, a ship named the Globe with a capacity of 19,100 20-foot containers <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30696685">could haul 156 million pairs of shoes</a>, 300 million tablet computers or 900 million cans of baked beans – in case you’re feeling hungry. </p>
<p>The Ever Given, the ship that blocked traffic through the Suez Canal for almost a week in March 2021, has a similar capacity, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073">20,000 containers</a>.</p>
<p>In terms of cost, imagine this: The typical pre-pandemic price of transporting a 20-foot container carrying over 20 tons of cargo from Asia to Europe <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">was about the same</a> as an economy ticket to fly the same journey.</p>
<h2>Cost of success</h2>
<p>But the growing size of ships has a cost, as the Ever Given incident showed.</p>
<p>Maritime shipping has grown increasingly important to global supply chains and trade, yet it was rather invisible until the logjam and blockage of the Suez Canal. As the Ever Given was traversing the narrow 120-mile canal, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-27/how-a-desert-wind-in-suez-canal-blew-global-trade-off-course?sref=Hjm5biAW">fierce wind gusts blew it to the bank</a>, and its 200,000 tons of weight got it stuck in the muck. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56505413">12% of the world’s global shipping traffic</a> passes through this canal. At one point during the blockage, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073">at least 369 ships were stuck waiting</a> to pass through the canal from either side, costing an estimated $9.6 billion a day. That translates to $400 million an hour, or $6.7 million a minute.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Ship-building companies <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-29/despite-the-ever-given-getting-stuck-in-the-suez-canal-ships-will-get-bigger?sref=Hjm5biAW">continue to work on building ever larger container vessels</a>, and there’s little evidence this trend will stop anytime soon. Some experts forecast that ships capable of carrying loads 50% larger than the Ever Given’s will be plying the open seas by 2030.</p>
<p>In other words, the shipping container remains more popular – and in demand – than ever. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/todays-global-economy-runs-on-standardized-shipping-containers-as-the-ever-given-fiasco-illustrates-158179">article originally published</a> on April 5, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nagurney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Before the container was standardized, loading and unloading goods was very labor-intensive, inefficient and costly.Anna Nagurney, Eugene M. Isenberg Chair in Integrative Studies, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1620462021-06-16T16:06:11Z2021-06-16T16:06:11ZCOVID-19 has shone a light on how globalization can tackle inequality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406292/original/file-20210614-102344-1jidy13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C375%2C4256%2C2446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Predictions about the death of globalization were, in hindsight, grossly exaggerated. Recovery efforts took hold early compared to two other major economic crises of the past 100 years, suggesting global trade is much more resilient than anticipated.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html">Globalization</a> is a multifaceted concept that describes the process of creating networks of connections around the world. It involves the interdependence of national economies and the integration of information, goods, labour and capital, to name a few.</p>
<p>In recent years, globalization has been the subject of <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/globalization-new-discontents-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2016-08">growing discontent and criticism</a>, particularly after the election of former U.S. president <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/07/globalization-in-the-age-of-trump">Donald Trump</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/brexit-is-the-rejection-of-globalisation">Brexit and</a> <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/why-did-trump-end-wtos-appellate-body-tariffs">the American refusal</a> to appoint members to the World Trade Organization’s Appellate Body. </p>
<p>The backlash represents a major setback to the pace of globalization and sets the stage for growing protectionism and nationalism around the world. Many criticisms have been political, but the ongoing <a href="https://repub.eur.nl/pub/135563">COVID-19 pandemic has introduced new health threats to globalization</a>. </p>
<p>In a sense, the pandemic has illuminated both globalization (a virus went global in a few weeks thanks to globalization and interconnectedness) and deglobalization (the breakdown of international co-operation and the re-emergence of nationalism when it came to personal protective gear, medical devices and vaccines). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-me-first-covid-19-vaccine-strategy-may-come-at-the-cost-of-global-health-146908">Canada's 'me first' COVID-19 vaccine strategy may come at the cost of global health</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>COVID-19 and globalization</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://repub.eur.nl/pub/135563">our recent research</a>, we detail the pandemic’s impact on the world economy via three components of globalization: economic, social and political. The pandemic and the economic policy response to the crisis have had an impact on these three aspects to varying degrees.</p>
<p>1) <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2">Economic globalization</a> involves the flow of goods, services, capital and information through long-distance market transactions. Although the pandemic is global, regions and countries have experienced it differently based on various economic indicators.</p>
<p><a href="https://unctad.org/news/covid-19-drives-large-international-trade-declines-2020">Merchandise trade contracted for the global economy</a>, but <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osg2020d1_en.pdf">the rate of decline was more pronounced in advanced economies</a> than in developing and emerging economies. Not only were trade flows affected, but the the impact of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment (FDI) <a href="https://unctad.org/news/global-foreign-direct-investment-falls-49-first-half-2020">was immediate as global FDI flows declined by nearly half in 2020</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large port on a hazy day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406291/original/file-20210614-135666-fqngni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The port of Los Angeles, mid-pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>2) <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2">Social globalization</a> was also significantly impacted by COVID-19. It pertains to interactions with people abroad including via migration, international phone calls and international remittances paid or received by citizens.</p>
<p>Social globalization has been heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because many countries have imposed travel restrictions on both residents and foreign travellers. Border closures hinder migration, especially the movement of tourists and international students. <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/covid-19-unemployment-immigrants-other-us-workers">Migrant remittances were also affected</a>, not because of any formal restrictions on remittances, but mainly because of the impact the pandemic had on immigrant employment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-emergency-response-benefit-does-nothing-for-migrant-workers-136358">Canada's Emergency Response Benefit does nothing for migrant workers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>3) Political globalization involves the ability of countries to engage in international political co-operation and diplomacy, as well as implementing government policy.</p>
<p>The initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected international co-operation negatively, <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/us-and-china-getting-beyond-covid-19-blame-game">in part because of the blame game between the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men, one in a mask, stand together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406456/original/file-20210615-19-1j1fiek.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Italian hospital director is flanked by the vice-president of China’s Red Cross in Rome in March 2020, when Italy was being decimated by COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Domenico Stinellis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Later, many nations worked together to fight the pandemic. <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-china-steps-in-to-help-italy-battle-the-virus/a-52901560">China, for example, supported</a> countries like Italy, which became the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. </p>
<p>Politically, the outbreak of COVID-19 could be used as a building block in the future to reinforce international co-operation and strengthen the pillars of political globalization.</p>
<h2>COVID-19 and previous economic crises</h2>
<p>Because of well-established and interdependent global production and supply chains, economic forecasts were pessimistic in the early months of the pandemic due to international border closures and business shutdowns.</p>
<p>The prospect of the world plunging into another major and long-term economic recession similar to the Great Depression in the <a href="https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/">1930s and the 2008 recession</a> was top of mind for economists, governments and citizens. </p>
<p>But predictions about the <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/business-school/ib-knowledge/strategy-leadership/does-covid-19-really-mean-the-death-globalisation">death of globalization</a> were, in hindsight, grossly exaggerated. Recovery efforts took hold early compared to those two major economic crises, suggesting global trade is much more resilient than anticipated.</p>
<p>In fact, there’s reason to be optimistic about the COVID-19 economic recovery as well as the future of globalization.</p>
<p>Multinational enterprises already had their stress test during the 2008-2009 <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/great-trade-collapse-what-caused-it-and-what-does-it-mean#:%7E:text=The%20%E2%80%9Cgreat%20trade%20collapse%E2%80%9D%20occurred,sudden%2C%20severe%2C%20and%20synchronised.">collapse of world trade</a>. That collapse kickstarted a process of deglobalization, but global merchandise trade and industrial production recovered to previous highs quickly — and they’ve done so even more swiftly during the COVID-19 crisis. The shock was sharp and immediate, but so was the recovery. </p>
<p>The so-called invisible flows (FDI, remittances, tourism, official development co-operation) have been hit harder, and full recovery is not to be expected until vaccination rollouts are sufficiently global in scope. Nonetheless, it’s not unrealistic to expect a speedy economic recovery once the pandemic has passed.</p>
<h2>The disease of inequality</h2>
<p>Ironically, the attacks on globalization were a symptom of an underlying disease — inequality — that have been illuminated by the pandemic.</p>
<p>Globalization lacked a trickling down of benefits to those who most needed them. The pandemic taught us that inequalities are the breeding ground for the spreading of literal diseases and the suffering that follows. Reducing vulnerabilities to future epidemics requires tackling those inequalities. </p>
<p>But the fight against future crises cannot be limited to domestic developments only, because inequality is global. <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Adhering to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals</a> is therefore a high-return investment project.</p>
<p>The push towards deglobalization certainly still exists. But economies are now digitally connected in ways they’ve never been before. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Medical staff wearing masks look out of a hospital window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406463/original/file-20210615-19-asrgn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Medical staff look out from a hospital window as officials prepare to begin Kenya’s first COVID-19 vaccinations in Nairobi in March 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ben Curtis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s a positive development, because ending the COVID-19 pandemic and preventing future crises requires international co-operation and a global effort to ensure no single country is left behind. Vaccines must be made available and affordable to all countries, as just reiterated by the leaders of G7 nations in their promise to supply <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57461640">one billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to poorer nations</a>. </p>
<p>Just as globalization has ramifications for all countries, the health of one nation affects the health of all nations. It requires a global approach to ensure equality for all the world’s citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor receives funding from OMAFRA </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Binyam Afewerk Demena and Peter A.G. van Bergeijk do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The outbreak of COVID-19 could be used as a building block in the future to reinforce international co-operation and strengthen the pillars of globalization.Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, Assistant Professor, Agri-Food Trade and Policy, University of GuelphBinyam Afewerk Demena, Postdoctoral research fellow, International Institute of Social StudiesPeter A.G. van Bergeijk, Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics, International Institute of Social StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1587482021-04-27T12:13:17Z2021-04-27T12:13:17ZIf China’s middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395331/original/file-20210415-23-16r8sby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C3%2C1013%2C671&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ng Han Guan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/9780815737254_ch1.pdf">large and impressive</a> accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.1.25">decline of the West</a> – including the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-america-declining/">United States</a> – as the world’s dominant political and economic force <a href="https://doi.org/10.17104/1611-8944_2013_3_315">is inevitable</a> amid the seemingly inexorable <a href="https://mahbubani.net/new-asian-hemisphere-the-irresistible-shift-of-global-power-to-the-east/">rise of the East</a>.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 virus hit China first and hard, stalling its rapid economic growth for the first time since the Great Recession. But China’s economy grew by a blistering 18.3% <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56768663">in the first quarter of 2021</a> compared to 2020, keeping it solidly in place as the world’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-12445925">second-largest</a> economy. Many now believe that China, rather than the U.S., may <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-growth-set-to-drive-global-economy-in-post-pandemic-years-121040700186_1.html">drive the global recovery from the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>It’s not yet clear that this current rebound means China has regained its former growth rate. But if it does, I believe it will set off a global contest over which form of government will have a dominant influence over global affairs in coming decades: Western-style democracy or China’s brand of authoritarianism. </p>
<p><a href="https://people.rit.edu/aabgsh/">My research</a> and that of <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo61544815.html">others</a> examines two questions: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Will China solve the biggest challenges to maintaining its four-decade growth rate of <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/brief-history-of-china-economic-growth/">7%-8% annually</a>, which has propelled its rising global power?</p></li>
<li><p>If China does succeed in sustaining this pace, will this be a benefit to the rest of the world?</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The ‘middle-income trap’</h2>
<p>In 1978, Deng Xiaoping <a href="https://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/rim/1999/RIMe199904threereforms/">initiated</a> transformative reforms that opened China up to the international community and foreign investment. In 2001, China joined the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/china_e.htm">World Trade Organization</a> and became an enthusiastic participant in global markets and value chains. As a result of these and other economic policies, China has succeeded in rapidly progressing from a low-income to a <a href="https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups#:%7E:text=For%20the%20current%202021%20fiscal,those%20with%20a%20GNI%20per">middle-income nation</a>.</p>
<p>Put another way, globalization has certainly <a href="https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/china-globalizations-greatest-success-story-can-good-times-last&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1617997953220000&usg=AOvVaw2VktAOBulGluEzDXcQS4gp">benefited China</a> in many ways up to now. After generations of endemic poverty, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have seen <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/wages">wage increases</a> leading to higher disposable income. Now, after paying for basic necessities, they have extra money to save or spend on consumer products such as trendy clothing or tech gadgets. </p>
<p>The gains are now <a href="https://www.economist.com/special-report/2021/01/21/the-gap-between-chinas-rural-and-urban-youth-is-closing">spreading beyond urban centers</a>, with the number of citizens who are both rural and poor in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2018.1476256">dramatic decline</a>, dropping by <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1091107.shtml">12.89 million</a> between 2016 and 2017 alone. Rural consumer spending is on the rise. As increased agricultural output <a href="https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/notes-de-lifri/asie-visions/development-rural-china-21st-century-progress-made-and">attenuates fears</a> of famine, daily life in rural communities is improving, while the expansion of nonagricultural <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/chinas-rapid-rise-from-backward-agrarian-society-to-industrial-powerhouse-in-just-35-years">rural industries</a> offers them alternative sources of income. </p>
<p>This growing material comfort has led to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1091107.shtml">rising happiness about living in China</a>. Even so, once a country like China achieves middle-income status, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/20034139">it can become trapped</a>: unable to compete with other nations either in the knowledge economy – typically the province of high-income nations – or in the low-wage economy it has left behind. </p>
<p>In an influential <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/02/27/china-2030-executive-summary">study</a> of this “<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/escaping-middle-income-trap-innovate-or-perish">middle-income trap” for a number of countries</a>, the World Bank found that of 101 nations that were middle-income in 1960, only 13 had made it to high-income status by 2008. Partly this was because of what <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12004">some call</a> a “low productivity equilibrium,” with a relatively small fraction of the overall workforce employed in high-skill jobs such as medical care providers, engineers or managers, rather than low-skill jobs such as farm workers, factory laborers, or retail clerks and cashiers. The remaining 88 countries were either poorer or seemingly stuck in middle-income status. </p>
<p>In addition, many small and large manufacturing companies are responding to China’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/chinese-wages-rise-made-in-china-isnt-so-cheap-anymore.html">rising wages</a> by <a href="https://fortune.com/2019/06/07/us-china-trade-war-manufacturers-leaving/">shifting their operations</a> to countries with lower labor costs, such as India and Vietnam. Forty thousand factories <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo61544815.html">shut down across China</a> every year, eliminating jobs in droves. This means that China has milked low-skilled manufacturing for all its worth, and needs new policies to sustain growth. </p>
<h2>China’s education challenge</h2>
<p>The world is increasingly divided into two categories: countries that are well-educated and those that aren’t. Since the end of World War II, industrializing nations that have also invested substantially in improving the quality of their high schools, vocational schools and universities have largely avoided the middle-income trap and progressed to high-income status. </p>
<p>In Singapore, for instance, educational system investments of <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/985626.shtml">12%-35% of the annual national budget</a> have given rise to a well-educated, professional, thriving middle class that has anchored ongoing economic growth. Similarly, South Korea has invested heavily in education, spending on average <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/South-Korea/Education_spending/">3.41% of its gross domestic product</a> between 1970 and 2016. This has led to the emergence of a well-educated workforce that has <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-2859-6_10">promoted the nation’s economic development</a> for many decades.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.kornferry.com/insights/articles/2-can-china-continue-to-grow#:%7E:text=Even%20if%20such%20a%20combination,percent%20in%20the%20foreseeable%20future">Some expert observers believe</a> that China will likely make similar moves successfully, giving it a good chance of <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-can-avoid-the-middle-income-trap-of-developing-economies">escaping the middle-income trap</a>. But for this to happen, the leadership needs to make massive nationwide <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo61544815.html">investments in its educational systems</a>, ranging from improving <a href="https://www.worldfinance.com/special-reports/lessons-to-be-learned">rural</a> and <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1006258/china-unveils-plan-to-improve-vocational-education">vocational</a> schools to improving universities and broadening access to urban educational opportunities. These educational investments, which economists term <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/new-book-scott-rozelle-and-natalie-hell-invisible-china">“human capital improvements</a>,” typically take a long time to fully develop. </p>
<p>If China sustained its average annual growth rate of 7% while making this workforce transformation, its per capita income would be about US$55,000 by 2035, which is almost identical to U.S. per-person income in 2014. That year, about 44% of the U.S. labor force had at least a college education, and 89% a high school diploma. Even optimistic <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44133949">statistical analysis</a> shows that by 2035, China’s education levels will be far lower.</p>
<p>Therefore, the Chinese government will realize its hope of 7% annual growth over the next 20 years only if China manages to produce a numerical relationship between human capital and per capita income that is considerably higher than what the typical global experience thus far has been.</p>
<p>Another challenge is that China is an <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/04/01/income-inequality-is-growing-fast-in-china-and-making-it-look-more-like-the-us/">inequitable country</a>, with the most deeply entrenched rural-urban gap in the world. Under China’s “<a href="https://nhglobalpartners.com/the-chinese-hukou-system-explained/">hukou</a>,” or household registration system, all citizens are assigned at birth to either a rural or an urban hukou. This system, which affects virtually every aspect of one’s life, privileges urban status by providing urban hukou holders with substantially greater and better educational opportunities. </p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-05-01/chinas-hukou-system-puts-migrant-workers-severe-economic-disadvantage">260 million Chinese rural hukou holders</a> cannot access the superior education provided in cities. Even when they migrate to urban centers for work, they get left behind because their hukou forces them to live as second-class citizens in their adopted cities. So China must seriously reform the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43974667?seq=1">hukou system</a> if it wants to get a secure footing among the “well-educated” nations of the world. </p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s election newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>What would a high-income China mean for the rest of the world?</h2>
<p>The noted China scholar and Stanford University professor Scott Rozelle <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo61544815.html">has said</a> that “the entire world will be much better off with a thriving China.” He reasons that the world would benefit thanks to continued access to many low-priced goods, while China itself would benefit because increasing personal prosperity would dampen civil political unrest. </p>
<p>But such success might also suggest to developing nations that when it comes to uplifting millions from poverty and delivering broad economic growth and development, socialism with Chinese characteristics is a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/18/china-democracy-ideology-communist-party/">more desirable model</a> of government than the democracy practiced in the West. </p>
<p>The Chinese Communist Party wishes to remain a firmly <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/inline_images/ChinaFINAL.pdf">authoritarian</a> government. In China, a <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/713722">vast surveillance state</a> tracks people’s faces, scans their phones and is even able to tell when someone has left home. </p>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672433">persecution of</a> its Muslim-minority <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13602000600738731">Uighur citizens</a> in the Xinjiang region also provides a glimpse of how China might interact with nations and peoples that displease it in a world order that it dominates.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, China is <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-worldwide-investment-project-is-a-push-for-more-economic-and-political-power-125190">already expanding its international clout</a> through its “Belt and Road Initiative,” which involves investing billions in development projects across Europe, Asia, East Africa and the Western Pacific. In the process China is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pox012">credibly demanding</a>, and beginning to receive, a dominant political role on the world stage. </p>
<p>It’s too soon to tell whether China will continue to sustain rapid economic growth or make the investments and social reforms it needs to advance most of its citizens into the middle class. But given its determination and progress over the past several decades, it’s plausible that by midcentury, a China equal in wealth and political clout to the U.S. and its coalition of democracies may become a fact. Such a China may well have the power to fracture the current international order into two opposing and incompatible visions about the future of Asia and the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158748/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amitrajeet A. Batabyal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If China’s economy recovers from the pandemic, its authoritarian political system could become even more influential around the world.Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1566292021-04-07T12:27:48Z2021-04-07T12:27:48ZNetflix’s big bet on foreign content and international viewers could upend the global mediascape – and change how people see the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393669/original/file-20210406-15-13jt0pi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C130%2C2820%2C1849&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">TV and movies are one way we understand people and places we've never had direct contact with – and maybe never will.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/lonely-kid-watching-tv-in-a-dark-room-education-royalty-free-image/1271102479?adppopup=true">iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a kid growing up in Italy, I remember watching the American TV series “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070992/">Happy Days</a>,” which chronicled the 1950s-era Midwestern adventures of the Fonz, Richie Cunningham and other local teenagers. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Poster featuring the cast of 'Happy Days'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393258/original/file-20210402-21-1v4xype.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Happy Days’ ran on ABC from 1974 to 1984.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BMzEzOGJhZGEtODA0Zi00NTZiLTkwYjgtNmVmZjk4MjBjNjdiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNzY5MTE3OTQ@._V1_.jpg">IMDB</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The show, combined with other American entertainment widely available in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s, shaped my perception of the United States long before I ever set foot in the country. Today, I call the U.S. home, and I have developed my own understanding of its complexities. I am able to see “Happy Days” as a <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/16097">nostalgic revival of an ideal, conflict-free American small town</a>.</p>
<p>“Happy Days” was a product of Hollywood, which is arguably still the epicenter of the global entertainment industry. So recent news that the streaming service <a href="https://variety.com/2021/digital/news/netflix-italy-office-2021-originals-1234903855/">Netflix is opening an Italian office</a> and will begin massively funding original local content with the intent of distributing it <a href="https://jobs.netflix.com/location?slug=rome-italy">globally on its platform</a> – following a strategy already launched in other European countries – struck me. </p>
<p>This could be a potentially game-changing move in global entertainment. And it might even change how the world perceives, well, the world.</p>
<h2>Learning by watching</h2>
<p>I have explored the <a href="https://annenberg.usc.edu/faculty/paolo-sigismondi">global media landscape</a> from the privileged vantage point of Los Angeles for the past 15 years.</p>
<p>TV and movies are one way that people, as we go through life, make sense of the world, building on the <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2002-00742-003">archive of our personal experiences and opinions of other places</a>.</p>
<p>Absent direct experience with a people or nation, we speculate on what we do not know. This process involves a variety of sources, including reading, Googling and accounts from somebody we trust. But often it is media that exposes people to other cultures, above and beyond our own. </p>
<p>TV and movies fill the knowledge gaps with powerful images and stories that inform the way we think about different cultures. If the media’s messages have consistency over time, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jcom.12128">we may come to understand these as facts</a>. </p>
<p>But media portrayals may well be inaccurate. Certainly, they are incomplete. That’s because movies and TV series aren’t necessarily meant to depict reality; they are designed for entertainment. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Angelina Jolie in a boat in a Venice canal, surrounded by crew members" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393260/original/file-20210402-23-nofjgt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actor Angelina Jolie filming ‘The Tourist’ in Venice, Italy, in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/actress-angelina-jolie-is-seen-on-location-at-the-arsenale-news-photo/97870212?adppopup=true">Barbara Zanon/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result, they can be misleading, if not biased, based on and perpetuating stereotypes. </p>
<p>For example, there is no shortage of <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/what-is-the-godfather-effect-83473971/">Italian and Italian American stereotypes in American entertainment</a>. From the award-winning “Godfather” saga to the less critically acclaimed “Jersey Shore” TV series, Italians are often depicted as tasteless, uneducated, linked to organized crime – or all three.</p>
<h2>Media is a window to the world</h2>
<p>But the way people are exposed to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/World-Entertainment-Media-Global-Regional-and-Local-Perspectives/Sigismondi/p/book/9781138094024">media entertainment</a> is changing. Today streaming platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime, Apple TV+ and Disney+ collectively have <a href="https://www.rapidtvnews.com/2020061258639/tv-streaming-accounts-to-break-billion-barrier-in-2020.html?utm_campaign=tv-streaming-accounts-to-break-billion-barrier-in-2020&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter_2443#axzz6PAJp7Ich">1 billion subscribers globally</a>.</p>
<p>Being a relative newcomer in producing original content, Netflix cannot rely on a large library of proprietary content to feed its <a href="https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2021/Netflix-to-Announce-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results/default.aspx">204 million paid members in over 190 countries</a>, as legacy Hollywood players can. So it is increasingly creating original productions, including a number of <a href="https://ir.netflix.net/ir-overview/long-term-view/default.aspx">non-English language originals</a> from places such as Mexico, France, Italy, Japan and Brazil.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of Netflix homepage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393257/original/file-20210402-13-1iwupqz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A snippet of Netflix’s international lineup on April 2, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.Netflix.com">Screenshot, Netflix.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We might call this an example of “<a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9781461409076">glocalization of entertainment</a>” – a company operating globally, adapting its content to meet the expectations of locally situated audiences across the world. </p>
<p>This is already the modus operandi, for example, of <a href="https://mediarep.org/bitstream/handle/doc/3302/NECSUS_3_1_2014_319-325_Kooijman_Globalisation_television_formats.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">many popular reality TV shows</a>. “American Idol” is an American adaptation of Europe’s “Pop Idol.” “The X Factor,” “Big Brother” and “Dancing with the Stars” have similarly international origins.</p>
<p>Now, however, glocalization comes with a twist: Netflix intends to distribute its localized content internationally, beyond the local markets.</p>
<p>It is not the global reach of Netflix’s platform per se that would break down old stereotypes. French critics panned the American-produced, internationally distributed Netlix series “<a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/embarrassing-netflixs-emily-in-paris-blasted-by-french-critics">Emily in Paris</a>” for its cliched, romanticized portrayal of the city.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p4Okq1Wdpg0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Emily in Paris’ was an American take on Paris, and French critics hated it.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Foreign TV executives must create shows for Netflix that both appeal to local audiences and have international potential, while remaining authentic in their portrayal of their country. If Netflix’s Italian team thinks “The Godfather” is what international audiences expect from Italy, international audiences may tune in – but Italians won’t. </p>
<p>To become truly international, Netflix would also have to foster the development of original local ideas not only in European countries with well-developed cultural industries but also in smaller countries and those with emerging entertainment industries, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/netflix-will-first-african-series-launch-a-new-chapter-in-african-filmmaking/a-52528867">such as African nations</a>.</p>
<h2>Netflix’s opportunity – and challenge</h2>
<p>A side effect of this strategy could be that Netflix upends the traditional way that media informs our understanding of foreign people and lands by more accurately representing these places. </p>
<p>But that’s a tall order, and it’s not, of course, guaranteed.</p>
<p>Netflix’s transformative potential comes from allowing local creatives to tell stories about their own cultures and then distributing them truly internationally. It will depend on the company’s willingness to implement this strategy in a consistent, sustained, inclusive and thoughtful fashion. </p>
<p>Over time, widespread exposure to a diverse array of international media content might change the way people in the U.S. and worldwide think and feel about other cultures they have never, and may never, come into direct contact with. </p>
<p>All it takes is one click – one choice to watch, perhaps even unknowingly, a foreign-produced series.</p>
<p>The way Netflix works, using <a href="https://help.netflix.com/en/node/100639">algorithms to suggest content</a> as viewers make selections, can prolong an initial exposure to and interest in foreign content. Artificial intelligence meant to feed us more of what we like may end up a surprising force for change, making us rethink what we thought we knew.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paolo Sigismondi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An Italian media scholar raised on American TV assesses Netflix’s ambitious strategy to create original productions in Italy, Japan, Brazil and beyond – and distribute them globally.Paolo Sigismondi, Clinical Professor of Communication, USC Annenberg School for Communication and JournalismLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581792021-04-05T12:36:05Z2021-04-05T12:36:05ZToday’s global economy runs on standardized shipping containers, as the Ever Given fiasco illustrates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393336/original/file-20210403-15-1amvuz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=230%2C96%2C4720%2C2857&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beachgoers near Cairo watch a massive container ship sail to the Red Sea.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EgyptDailyLife/586cf490eacb4523953ee2b7b93ef0fe/photo?Query=container%20AND%20ship&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1949&currentItemNo=59">AP Photo/Amr Nabil</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Take a look around you.</p>
<p>Perhaps you’re snacking on a banana, sipping some coffee or sitting in front of your computer and taking a break from work to read this article. Most likely, those goods – as well as your smartphone, refrigerator and virtually every other object in your home – were once loaded onto a large container in another country and traveled thousands of miles via ships crossing the ocean before ultimately arriving at your doorstep. </p>
<p>Today, an estimated <a href="https://www.oecd.org/ocean/topics/ocean-shipping/">90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea</a>, with 60% of that – including virtually all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-shipping">about US$14 trillion</a> of the world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box. </p>
<p>In short, without the standardized container – like the thousands that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world/middleeast/suez-canal-ship-stuck.html">helped to keep the Ever Given stuck in the mud</a> along the Suez Canal, snarling traffic for almost a week – the global supply chain that society depends upon would not exist. <a href="https://www.axios.com/suez-canal-ship-freed-df3d08cf-187a-4a5b-968f-6b546b37dc97.html">About 30% of global container shipping volumes</a> transit through the Suez Canal.</p>
<p>The Ever Given incident reveals several kinks in the modern supply chain. But, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ecFsBp0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an expert on the topic</a>, I think it also highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that, from a distance, resemble lego blocks floating on the sea.</p>
<h2>Trade before the container</h2>
<p>Since the dawn of commerce, <a href="https://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization/before-container-shipping">people have been using</a> boxes, sacks, barrels and containers of varying sizes to transport goods over long distances. <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/phoenicians-early-lessons-economics">Phoenicians in 1600 B.C. Egypt ferried</a> wood, fabrics and glass to Arabia in sacks via camel-driven caravans. And hundreds of years later, the Greeks used <a href="https://phys.org/news/2011-10-ancient-greek-ships-wine.html">ancient storage containers known as amphorae</a> to transport wine, olive oil and grain on triremes that plied the Mediterranean and neighboring seas to other ports in the region. </p>
<p>Even as trade grew more advanced, the process of loading and unloading as goods were transferred from one method of transportation to another remained <a href="https://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/history-of-containerization/before-container-shipping">very labor-intensive, time-consuming and costly</a>, in part because containers came in all shapes and sizes. Containers from a ship being transferred onto a smaller rail car, for example, often had to be opened up and repacked into a boxcar. </p>
<p>Different-sized packages also meant space on a ship could not be effectively utilized and also created weight and balance challenges for a vessel. And goods were more likely to experience damage from handling or theft due to exposure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Roman fresco depicts a Nilotic scene with pygmies in a boat loaded with amphorae." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393291/original/file-20210402-13-7p5udp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ceramic containers called amphorae were often used by the Greeks and others to transfer liquids like wine as well as grains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/roman-fresco-depicting-a-nilotic-scene-with-pygmies-in-a-news-photo/985000060">PHAS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A trade revolution</h2>
<p>The U.S. military began <a href="https://www.plslogistics.com/blog/the-history-of-containers">exploring the use of standardized small containers</a> to more efficiently transport guns, bombs and other materiel to the front lines during World War II.</p>
<p>But it was not until the 1950s that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcom_McLean">American entrepreneur Malcolm McLean</a> realized that by standardizing the size of the containers being used in global trade, loading and unloading of ships and trains could be at least partially mechanized, thereby making the transfer from one mode of transportation to another seamless. This way products could remain in their containers from the point of manufacture to delivery, resulting in reduced costs in terms of labor and potential damage.</p>
<p>In 1956, McLean <a href="https://visionproject.org/images/img_magazine/pdfs/international_shipping.pdf">created the standard cargo container</a>, which we basically still use today. He originally built it at a length of 33 feet – soon increased to 35 – and <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/management/leaders-and-success/malcom-mclean-invented-better-shipping-containers/">eight feet wide and tall</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cranes load containers onto a ship at the San Francisco pier in 1963." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393290/original/file-20210402-21-n5girg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Matson Hawaiian Citizen was one of the first ships converted into a container vessel, seen here at a San Francisco pier in 1963.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ShipsDocksUSCalifSanFrancisco/7c1e5d983ba244889ebf2e28cb4e7c82/photo?Query=container%20AND%20ship&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1949&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This dramatically reduced the cost of loading and unloading a ship. In 1956, <a href="https://traderiskguaranty.com/trgpeak/history-shipping-containers/">hand-loading a ship cost $5.86 per ton</a>; the standardized container cut that cost to just 16 cents a ton. It also made it much easier to protect cargo from the elements or pirates, since the container is made of durable steel and remains locked during transport. </p>
<p>The U.S. made great use of this innovation <a href="https://traderiskguaranty.com/trgpeak/history-shipping-containers">during the Vietnam War</a> to ship supplies to soldiers, who sometimes even used the containers as shelters. </p>
<p>Today, the <a href="https://www.discovercontainers.com/a-complete-history-of-the-shipping-container/">standard container size is 20 feet long</a>, the same width, but more commonly half a foot taller – a size that’s become known as a “20-foot-equivalent container unit,” or TEU. There are actually a few different “standard” sizes, such as 40 feet long or a little taller, though they all have the same width. One of the key advantages is that whatever size a ship uses, they all, like lego blocks, fit neatly together with virtually no empty spaces.</p>
<p>This innovation made the modern globalized world possible. The quantity of <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-shipping/">goods carried by containers soared</a> from 102 million metric tons in 1980 to about 1.83 billion metric tons as of 2017. Most of the containerized traffic <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/253988/estimated-containerized-cargo-flows-on-major-container-trade-routes/">flows across the Pacific Ocean</a> or between Europe and Asia – usually through the Suez Canal. </p>
<h2>Ships get huge</h2>
<p>The standardization of container sizes has also led to a surge in ship size. The more containers packed on a ship, the more a shipping company can earn on each journey.</p>
<p>In fact, the average size of a container ship <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">has doubled in the past 20 years alone</a>. The largest ships sailing today <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/business/economy/container-ships-suez-canal.html">are capable of hauling 24,000 containers</a> – that’s a carrying capacity equivalent to how much a <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">freight train 44 miles long</a> could hold. Put another way, a ship named the Globe with a capacity of 19,100 20-foot containers <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30696685">could haul 156 million pairs of shoes</a>, 300 million tablet computers or 900 million cans of baked beans – in case you’re feeling hungry. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The container ship the Ever Given is seen in the distance stuck on the bank. Its stern can be seen with lots of containers. Plants are in the foreground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=101%2C7%2C4713%2C3197&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393288/original/file-20210402-13-1i8xckt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ever Given was loaded with over 18,000 containers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EgyptSuezCanal/d7f42fd5019b49d7a06139e37077b199/photo?Query=ever%20given%20containers&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=52&currentItemNo=49">AP Photo/Mohamed Elshahed</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Ever Given has a similar capacity <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073">of 20,000 containers</a>, though it was only carrying 18,300 when it got stuck in the Suez Canal. </p>
<p>In terms of cost, imagine this: The typical pre-pandemic price of transporting a 20-foot container from Asia to Europe carrying over 20 tons of cargo <a href="https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation">was about the same</a> as an economy ticket to fly the same journey.</p>
<h2>Cost of success</h2>
<p>But the growing size of ships has a cost, as the Ever Given’s predicament showed.</p>
<p>Maritime shipping has grown increasingly important to global supply chains and trade, yet it was rather invisible until the recent logjam and blockage of the Suez Canal. As the Ever Given was traversing the narrow 120-mile canal, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-27/how-a-desert-wind-in-suez-canal-blew-global-trade-off-course?sref=Hjm5biAW">fierce wind gusts blew it to the bank</a>, and its 200,000 tons of weight got it stuck in the muck. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56505413">12% of the world’s global shipping traffic</a> passes through this canal. The blockage had, at one point, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073">at least 369 ships stuck waiting</a> to pass through the canal from either side, costing an estimated $9.6 billion a day. That translates to $400 million an hour, or $6.7 million a minute.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stacks of shipping containers of various colors sit on an out-of-view ship at a port in Georgia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C97%2C3211%2C2295&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393299/original/file-20210402-21-1cjhftc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Standardized shipping containers like these 40-foot ones made globalization possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/USChinaTariffs/1d152381bb244d398acd814b42fddda1/photo?Query=biggest%20container%20ship&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=48&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ship-building companies <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-29/despite-the-ever-given-getting-stuck-in-the-suez-canal-ships-will-get-bigger?sref=Hjm5biAW">continue to work on building ever-larger container vessels</a>, and there’s little evidence this trend will stop anytime soon. Some forecast that ships capable of carrying loads 50% larger than the Ever Given’s will be plying the open seas by 2030.</p>
<p>In other words, the standardized shipping container remains more popular – and in demand – than ever. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158179/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nagurney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Before the container was standardized, loading and unloading goods was very labor-intensive, inefficient and costly.Anna Nagurney, John F. Smith Memorial Professor of Operations Management, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1542342021-02-12T13:19:06Z2021-02-12T13:19:06ZYoung Republicans split from Trump and GOP elders on US foreign policy: 3 charts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383860/original/file-20210211-15-1uckzlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C168%2C4709%2C3403&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a post-Trump era, the GOP must decide which of the former president's policies to keep – and which to scrap.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-donald-trump-supporters-election-news-photo/1256649175?adppopup=true">Leonard Ortiz/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>No matter the outcome of Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, the Republican Party must now decide whether to maintain or abandon Trump-era policies during the Biden administration. Among them is Trump’s “<a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/docs/Resolution_Platform_2020.pdf">America First</a>” foreign policy agenda. </p>
<p>Trump portrayed the United States as a dominant, self-sufficient <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2074985/trump-touts-military-rebuilding-space-force-strikes-against-terror/">world leader</a> that needs little but subservience from other countries. He was <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/06047bc5-81dd-4475-8678-4b3181d53877">skeptical of trade and hostile to China</a>, and he eschewed global diplomacy in favor of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/08/trump-vows-north-korea-will-be-met-with-fire-and-fury-if-threats-continue/">military saber-rattling</a>.</p>
<p>That may not be the future of GOP foreign policy, according to <a href="https://jonathansschulman.com">my political science research</a>. I analyzed four surveys taken during the Trump administration asking Americans about foreign policy issues. Breaking down responses by both party and age, I found that younger Republicans diverge from Trump’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">America First</a>” agenda.</p>
<p>In fact, on some foreign policy issues, from China to trade, young Republicans are closer on the ideological spectrum to the Democratic mainstream than to their Republican elders.</p>
<h2>1. Globalization</h2>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/12/trump-is-a-new-kind-of-protectionist-he-operates-in-stealth-mode/">espoused economic protectionism</a> and demonstrated a general <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/28/how-globalism-became-the-boogeyman-of-2016/">aversion to trade and other aspects of economic globalization</a>. But young Republicans don’t necessarily feel the same way, according to a <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2017-chicago-council-survey">2017 survey from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="AgQdu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AgQdu/10/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Despite Trump’s description of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, as “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-us-mexico-canada-remarks-oct-18/h_2c0a8c6bad4dc7a2f98acda7c57ea454">perhaps the worst trade deal ever made</a>,” half of Republicans under 35 view it as good for the U.S. economy. </p>
<p>Republicans 35 and older were more inclined toward Trump’s position: Only one-third thought it was good for the economy.</p>
<p>Among Democrats surveyed by the Chicago Council, approval of NAFTA was above 70% for all age groups.</p>
<h2>2. China</h2>
<p>The surveys showed general bipartisan agreement across all age groups that the United States is militarily superior to China. </p>
<p>But younger Republicans were nearly twice as likely as older ones to believe that China has a stronger economy than the United States – 43% for Republicans under 35 versus 23% for those 35 and older, according to the Chicago Council survey.</p>
<p>Recognition of China’s economic power, however, does not lead younger GOP members to demonstrate a Trump-style hostility toward China. In <a href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/05/7ab2e761-Fox_May-17-20-2020_Complete_National_Topline_May-21-Release.pdf">Fox News’ May 2020 poll</a>, 42% of Republicans under 35 identified China as the “worst enemy of the United States.” Among Republicans 35 and older, 60% did.</p>
<p>Age-based differences of opinion on China translate into age-based policy preferences among Republicans. The vast majority of older Republicans – 81% – supported Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-guide-to-how-the-china-us-trade-war-will-affect-your-holiday-shopping-128586">punishing tariffs on Chinese imports</a>, a <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2019-chicago-council-survey">2019 Chicago Council survey</a> found. Just 60% of Republicans under 35 agreed. </p>
<p><iframe id="cj7tx" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cj7tx/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Democrats were mostly consistent on attitudes toward China. Around 1 in 5 view China as the worst enemy of the United States regardless of age; around 1 in 4 support raising tariffs on Chinese imports. </p>
<h2>3. Defense spending</h2>
<p>When it comes to funding for the U.S. military and national defense, both parties show a generational divide. </p>
<p><iframe id="PlUTk" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PlUTk/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In the Chicago Council’s 2017 survey, 64% of Republicans 35 and older said national defense spending should be expanded. Just 40% of Republicans under 35 agreed.</p>
<p>Few Democrats of any age think defense spending should be expanded, and some young Democrats diverge from party elders in thinking the defense budget should be cut. Half of Democrats under 35 would cut defense spending, and one-third of older Democrats would.</p>
<h2>A more bipartisan future?</h2>
<p>I study the political views of young people to shine a light on where American foreign policy may be headed in the coming years and decades. </p>
<p>Young Americans are voting and running for national office at historic rates. The <a href="https://www.millennialaction.org/millennials-on-the-rise-in-congress">number of millennial congressional candidates</a> nearly tripled between 2018 and 2020, according to the <a href="https://www.millennialaction.org/">Millennial Action Project</a>. In last year’s election, 251 candidates for Congress were age 45 or younger; 97 of those young candidates were Republicans. </p>
<p>As more young candidates start to win and occupy office, their views will influence the policy agendas of their party in the post-Trump era. </p>
<p>The surveys I studied show that younger Republicans hold more centrist attitudes on economic globalization, China and defense spending than party elders. In a political climate defined by intense polarization, this data may hint at a slow trend toward more bipartisan agreement on <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-long-foreign-policy-record-signals-how-hell-reverse-trump-rebuild-old-alliances-and-lead-the-pandemic-response-143671">certain foreign policy issues</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Schulman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘America First’ may not be long for this world. Surveys show many GOP members under 35 are closer to Democrats on China, trade and defense spending.Jonathan Schulman, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469862021-01-12T13:25:02Z2021-01-12T13:25:02ZI spoke to 99 big thinkers about what our ‘world after coronavirus’ might look like – this is what I learned<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376438/original/file-20201222-19-3iwlo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2832%2C1420&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adil Najam, international relations professor at Boston University, interviewed 99 experts about what the post-pandemic future will bring.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/worldaftercorona/">Pardee Center/Boston University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in March, my colleagues at the <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardee/">Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future</a> at Boston University thought that it might be useful to begin thinking about “the day after coronavirus.” For a research center dedicated to longer-term thinking, it made sense to ask what our post-COVID-19 world might look like.</p>
<p>In the months that followed, I learned many things. Most importantly, I learned there is no “going back to normal.”</p>
<h2>My season of learning</h2>
<p>The project took on a life of its own. Over 190 days, we released 103 videos. Each was around five minutes long, with one simple question: How might COVID-19 impact our future? Watch the full <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/worldaftercorona/">video series here</a>.</p>
<p>I interviewed leading thinkers on 101 distinct topics – from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG9rZv_akQw">money</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW8OAj0knrI">debt</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0QsoEP8sb8">supply chains</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs_U-BkKMyU">trade</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvpiRJZg3v8">work</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBrOpQr_G1A">robots</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLM_MItONno">journalism</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pSEzQRiD40">politics</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWi4OMKWlfo">water</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QVVCXBjxpQ">food</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa7NrE4vQ5M">climate change</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY6kOXdRRJ0">human rights</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hUtDhfFxIA">e-commerce</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZIemQwRUlM">cybersecurity</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B30gd90NwRU">despair</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_UWKzL11co">mental health</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-_J4_V6_x0">gender</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywQpS-30nEc">racism</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpoAo4O_SkQ">fine arts</a> to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCGEm7zfNpM">literature</a>, and even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K-rYp4mqsw">hope</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BezEAcZ7er4">happiness</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iY2Nuepn-i8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>My interviewees included the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCMDJqX8bJA">president of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences</a>, a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DFfwZZu3N8">former CIA director</a>, a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNTuf8-iIc4">former NATO supreme allied commander</a>, a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13rsLL5Eo_w">former prime minister of Italy</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-woWYt7pvk0">Britain’s astronomer royal</a>. </p>
<p>I “Zoomed” – the word had become a verb almost overnight – with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz_i1JrlhOQ">Kishore Mahbubani</a> in Singapore, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn7trRdXND4">Yolanda Kakabadse</a> in Quito, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K-rYp4mqsw">Judith Butler</a> in Berkeley, California, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZudBqrEo8M">Alice Ruhweza</a> in Nairobi and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pSEzQRiD40">Jeremy Corbyn</a> in London. For our very last episode, former U.N. Secretary General <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx4flELx6c8">Ban Ki-moon</a> joined from Seoul. </p>
<p>For me, it was truly a <a href="https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/world-after-coronavirus-adil-najam-crash-course-on-the-future/">season of learning</a>. Among other things, it helped me understand why COVID-19 is not a storm that we can just wait out. Our pre-pandemic world was anything but normal, and our post-pandemic world will not be like going back to normal at all. Here are four reasons why.</p>
<h2>Disruption will accelerate</h2>
<p>Just as people with preexisting medical conditions are most susceptible to the virus, the global impact of the crisis will accelerate preexisting transitions. As Eurasia Group President <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWtVhgljmwc">Ian Bremmer</a> highlights, a year of a global pandemic can pack in a decade or more of disruption as usual.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjTLOPtoyfk">Phil Baty</a> from “Times Higher Education” warns that universities will change “profoundly [and] forever,” but mostly because the higher education sector was already screaming for change. </p>
<p>Pulitzer Prize-winning editor <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLM_MItONno">Ann Marie Lipinski</a> arrives at the same prognosis for journalism, and Princeton economist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW8OAj0knrI">Atif Mian</a> worries similarly for structural global debt.</p>
<p>At Harvard, trade policy expert <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs_U-BkKMyU">Dani Rodrik</a> thinks the pandemic is hastening the “retreat from hyperglobalization” that was already in train before COVID-19. And Pardee School economist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG9rZv_akQw">Perry Mehrling</a> is convinced that “society will be transformed permanently … and returning to status quo ante is, I think, not possible.”</p>
<h2>Politics will become more turbulent</h2>
<p>While the clouds over the global economy are ominous – with even the usually optimistic Nobel Prize-winning economist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B30gd90NwRU">Sir Angus Deaton</a> worrying we might be entering a dark phase that takes “20 to 30 years before we see progress” – it is political commentators who seem most perplexed. </p>
<p>Stanford University’s political theorist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV3M3MfkfNY">Francis Fukuyama</a> confesses he has “never seen a period in which the degree of uncertainty as to what the world will look like politically is greater than it is today.”</p>
<p>COVID-19 has underscored fundamental questions about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHLyP0gN0r4">government competence</a>, the rise of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Wf1l93mZnE">populist nationalism</a>, sidelining of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1PZXo9KaJc">expertise</a>, decline of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlD0_S3p98Q">multilateralism</a> and even the idea of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV3M3MfkfNY">liberal democracy</a> itself. None of our experts – not one – expects politics anywhere to become less turbulent than it was pre-pandemic. </p>
<p>Geopolitically, this manifests itself in what the founding dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8yHZIQj-uI">Graham Allison</a>, calls an “underlying, fundamental, structural, Thucydidean rivalry” in which a rapidly rising new power, China, threatens to displace the established power, the United States. COVID-19 accelerated and intensified this great power rivalry with ramifications across <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2iwVk2zcaw">Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13rsLL5Eo_w">Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5me-2oXgpTU">Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDoP1J49mo8">Latin America</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN-5WGV0yWI">Middle East</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ejYFUtpLPn4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Pandemic habits will persist</h2>
<p>Not all turbulence, however, is unwelcome.</p>
<p>Across sectors, expert after expert told me that habits developed during the pandemic won’t go away – and not just the habits of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvpiRJZg3v8">Zoom</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OJBk079A-c">working from home</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBrOpQr_G1A">Robin Murphy</a>, engineering professor at Texas A&M University, is convinced that “we are going to have robots everywhere” as a result of COVID-19. That’s because they became so pervasive during the pandemic for deliveries, COVID-19 tests, automated services and even home use.</p>
<p>We hear from both <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXvyM1oYIjI">Karen Antman</a>, dean of Boston University’s School of Medicine, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7c9Opdu3Vlk">Adil Haider</a>, dean of medicine at Aga Khan University in Pakistan, that telemedicine is here to stay. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLgqYZpln34">Vala Afshar</a>, chief digital evangelist at Salesforce software company, goes even further. He argues that in the post-COVID-19 world “every business will be[come] a digital business” and will have to take a great deal of its commerce, interactions and workforce online.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Crisis will create opportunities</h2>
<p>Science journalist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU1vwEIYcLg">Laurie Garrett</a>, who has warned about global epidemics for decades, imagines an opportunity to address the injustices of our economic and societal systems. Because “there will not be a single activity that goes on as it once did,” she says, there is also the possibility of fundamental restructuring in the upheaval. </p>
<p>Environmentalist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE0T3i4oz0g">Bill McKibben</a> says the pandemic could become a wake-up call that makes people realize that “crisis and disaster are real possibilities” but can be averted.</p>
<p>They are not alone in this thinking. Economist <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=220XAnjXcOI">Thomas Piketty</a> recognizes the dangers of rising nationalism and inequality, but hopes we learn “to invest more in the welfare state.” He says “COVID will reinforce the legitimacy for public investments in [health systems] and infrastructure.”</p>
<p>Former Environmental Minister of Ecuador <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn7trRdXND4">Yolanda Kakabadse</a> similarly believes that the world will recognize that “ecosystem health equals human health,” and focus new attention on the environment. And military historian <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIM73yOBTrQ">Andrew Bacevich</a> would like to see a conversation about “the definition of national security in the 21st century.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qks2LmgA3HQ">Achim Steiner</a>, administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, is awestruck at the extraordinary amount of money that was mobilized to respond to this global crisis. He wonders if the world might become less stingy about the much smaller amounts needed to combat climate change before it is irreversible and catastrophic. </p>
<p>Ultimately, I think <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TNOq7zgBZ8">Noam Chomsky</a>, one of the most important public intellectuals of our times, summed it up best. “We need to ask ourselves what world will come out of this,” he said. “What is the world we want to live in?”</p>
<p><em>John Prandato, communications specialist at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, was series editor for the video project and contributed to this essay.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s no going back to normal after COVID-19, partly because our pre-pandemic world was anything but normal.Adil Najam, Dean, Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1522192021-01-10T13:47:38Z2021-01-10T13:47:38ZCOVID-19 face masks represent a chance to restore Canadian manufacturing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377427/original/file-20210106-21-80ka95.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C254%2C5851%2C3380&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Face masks are seen in the window of a shop during the COVID-19 pandemic in Montréal in December 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It didn’t take long for COVID-19 to race around the world after it emerged in late 2019.</p>
<p>The rapid spread of the coronavirus revealed how efficiently international travel and commerce had flattened distances and erased borders, proving harshly that progress has its negative repercussions. COVID-19 has had the same impact on global economics.</p>
<p>By the time the pandemic struck, it seemed the principles of specialization and division of labour that Adam Smith had expressed in <em><a href="https://www.adamsmith.org/the-wealth-of-nations">The Wealth of Nations</a></em> back in 1776 had played out to their fullest. Globalization and trade has led to the concentration of manufacturing of consumer goods in parts of Asia.</p>
<p>Manufacturing shifted to places where large factories and low wages allowed makers of clothing, steel, cars and many other products to maximize the gap between per-unit cost and selling price.</p>
<p>In the process, North America lost much of its industrial base to globalization. Manufacturing cities — including the city of Hamilton, Ont., where I live — have yet to overcome the devastation of the industrial landslide. Entire manufacturing ecosystems have vanished, together with <a href="https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/mowatcentre/how-ontario-lost-300000-manufacturing-jobs/">the jobs they sustained</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gm-closures-oshawa-needs-more-than-thoughts-and-prayers-107714">GM closures: Oshawa needs more than 'thoughts and prayers'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All of it played out as Smith’s principles had predicted, but one problem even the brilliant economist could not have seen coming was that globalization might one also day threaten our physical health.</p>
<p>That became glaringly apparent in the early weeks of the pandemic, when hospitals, clinics and long-term care facilities suddenly <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006141">lost access</a> to their regular supply of vital masks, gloves and other protective equipment, almost all of it imported from overseas. Global supply chains are highly efficient <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1910">but are also fragile</a>. </p>
<p>And yet the news, at least in economic terms, may not all be bad.</p>
<h2>Silver lining?</h2>
<p>Though the pandemic has become the world’s dominant health concern, it may catalyze recovery from some of the economic consequences of globalization.</p>
<p>Even before COVID-19, globalization’s counterpoint, “localization,” was beginning take hold. Localization brings smaller, more agile and more profitable forms of manufacturing back to places where conditions warrant, adding resilience to the economies of post-industrial countries like Canada. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-it-local-the-story-behind-a-made-in-saskatchewan-covid-19-emergency-use-ventilator-151819">Keeping it local: The story behind a made-in-Saskatchewan COVID-19 emergency-use ventilator</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>What localized or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOPM-08-2019-0600">distributed manufacturing</a> may lack in brutal efficiency it makes up in value. <a href="https://www.rd.com/article/why-canada-goose-jackets-expensive/">Canada Goose</a> and <a href="https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-rctom/submission/lululemon-from-niche-market-pioneer-to-apparel-ubiquity/">Lululemon</a> thrive because their products are perceived to have higher value than their competitors, allowing them to command higher prices.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman looks at her phone as she walks along a street wearing a Canada Goose coat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377458/original/file-20210106-23-ujs0n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this February 2019 photo, a woman in New York wears a Canada Goose coat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This allows them to shift from the continuous minimization of manufacturing costs — particularly wages — to continuous improvement of product quality and value, without sacrificing profitability.</p>
<p>This dynamic can help to restore at least some of our lost share of manufacturing. Since we pay workers more, they must produce products that bring higher prices, so Canada needs to be in this area of high value.</p>
<p>How does this relate to personal protective equipment, known as PPE?</p>
<h2>PPE market changed dramatically</h2>
<p>The pandemic changed the condition of the market. Previously, the sale of gloves, masks and other PPE were all based on price. Whoever made functional, disposable products at the lowest cost <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1910">captured the market</a> by selling them by the millions to hospitals, long-term care homes and clinics.</p>
<p>Today, masks are necessary for everyone, and in the consumer marketplace, they’ve become personal wearable devices, like cell phones and eyeglasses. Users are prepared to invest more in something that meets their everyday needs, stands up to daily use, is comfortable and looks good.</p>
<p>A typical <a href="https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1862179O/get-the-facts-n95-respirator-pricing.pdf">N95 mask from 3M</a>, which offers the best quality filtration, might cost between one and two dollars.</p>
<p>Reusable, <a href="https://www.gapcanada.ca/browse/category.do?cid=1157839">non-medical cloth masks</a> that The Gap sells are not as efficient as 3M’s, but they look much better, can be washed and sell for about $5 apiece. Elsewhere, someone can pay $25 or more for a mask, not because it necessarily offers more protection, but because it looks and feels better.</p>
<p>This consumer demand for higher-priced masks makes it easier to introduce new technologies with better breathability, fit, filtration capability, lifetime and appealing style. These options all have value, which create opportunities for Canadian manufacturers. </p>
<h2>Answering the call for face masks, shields</h2>
<p>Back in March, my colleagues and I at McMaster University created the <a href="https://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/centre-excellence-protective-equipment-and-materials-cepem">Centre of Excellence in Protective Equipment and Materials</a> (CEPEM) in response to a call from Hamilton Health Sciences to start locally manufacturing face masks and face shields to address anticipated shortages.</p>
<p>In just over a month, the CEPEM team created designs, identified suitable materials and developed tests for filtration and fit. </p>
<p>Now, with assistance from the centre, <a href="https://whitebird.ca/">Whitebird</a>, a Hamilton packaging company, is producing 20,000 face shields per day. <a href="https://nikoapparel.ca">Niko Apparel</a>, also in Hamilton, is making 20,000 masks per day. <a href="https://vitacore.ca">Vitacore</a> in British Columbia has started producing hundreds of thousands of “Made in Canada” N95 masks. <a href="https://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/news/woodbridge-foam-members-make-surgical-grade-masks-combat-covid-19">Woodbridge</a> has already produced millions of <a href="https://www.halyardhealth.com/industry-news/2019/july/choosing-the-right-face-mask-3-things-to-know.aspx">level 3 masks</a> in Ontario.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wears a face mask and shield." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377461/original/file-20210106-21-n2ghuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman wears a face mask and shield to curb the spread of COVID-19 while walking in North Vancouver, B.C., on Jan. 6, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The CEPEM continues to grow and support the nascent PPE manufacturing ecosystem across Canada so it can create high value, next-generation products.</p>
<p>Whether the end users are health-care workers, kids in school or people running errands, they need masks. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be made here at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>P. Ravi Selvaganapathy receives funding from various federal and provincial research sources including the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Research Fund, Ontario Centers of Excellence, Canada Foundation for Innovation, the Canada Research Chairs Program, Department of National Defense. MITACS and Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation.</span></em></p>Whether it’s health-care workers, kids in school or people running errands, Canadians need face masks during COVID-19. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be made here at home.P. Ravi Selvaganapathy, Professor, Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1514232021-01-04T19:54:25Z2021-01-04T19:54:25ZPopulism erupts when people feel disconnected and disrespected<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376242/original/file-20201221-17-7fpgfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5444%2C3588&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump supporters face off against counterprotesters at the Million MAGA March in Washington on Nov. 14, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-supporters-yell-at-counter-protesters-outside-of-the-news-photo/1229622721?adppopup=true">Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>American society is riven down the middle. In the 2020 presidential election, <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/president/">81 million people turned out to vote for Joe Biden, while another 74 million voted</a> for Donald Trump. Many people came to the polls to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12479">vote against</a> the other candidate rather than enthusiastically to support the one who secured their vote. </p>
<p>While this intense <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/polarization-9780190867782?cc=us&lang=en&">polarization</a> is distinctly American, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/breaking-the-two-party-doom-loop-9780190913854?cc=us&lang=en&">born of a strong two-party system</a>, the antagonistic emotions behind it are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/american-affective-polarization-in-comparative-perspective/1E3584B482D51DB25FFFB37A8044F204">not</a>.</p>
<p>Much of Trump’s appeal rested on a classically populist message – a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/populism-a-very-short-introduction-9780190234874?cc=us&lang=en&">form of politics</a> evident around the world that rails against mainstream elites on behalf of the ordinary people. </p>
<p>The resonance of those appeals means that America’s social fabric is fraying at its edges. Sociologists refer to this as a problem of social integration. <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/durkheim/">Scholars argue that societies are well integrated</a> only when most of their members are closely connected to other people, believe that they are respected by others and share a common set of social norms and ideals.</p>
<p>Although people voted for Donald Trump for many reasons, there is growing evidence that much of his appeal is rooted in problems of social integration. Trump seems to have secured strong support from Americans who feel they have been pushed to the margins of mainstream society and who may have lost faith in mainstream politicians. </p>
<p>This perspective has implications for understanding why support for populist politicians has recently been rising around the world. This development is the subject of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/12/30/10690360/racism-economic-anxiety-trump">widespread debate</a> between those who say populism stems from <a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf">economic hardship</a> and others who emphasize <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">cultural conflict</a> as the source of populism.</p>
<p>Understanding populism’s roots is essential for addressing its rise and threat to democracy. We believe seeing populism as the product not of economic or cultural problems, but as a result of people feeling disconnected, disrespected and denied membership in the mainstream of society, will lead to more useful answers about how to stem populism’s rise and strengthen democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Anti-Trump demonstrators holding a sign saying 'Punch MAGA in the face' at a march in Washington, DC." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376241/original/file-20201221-17-18lclkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump supporters feel disrespected by mainstream culture. Here, an anti-Trump demonstration in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 14.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/anti-trump-demonstrators-march-to-black-lives-matter-plaza-news-photo/1229625348?adppopup=true">Probal Rashid/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not only in America</h2>
<p>One <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maddf8Emzds&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=MichiganInstituteforDataScience">Democratic pollster</a> found that support for Trump in 2016 was high among people with low trust in others. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-social-alienation-among-some-trump-supporters-help-explain-why-polls-underestimated-trump-again/">In 2020, polling</a> found that “socially disconnected voters were far more likely to view Trump positively and support his reelection than those with more robust personal networks.”</p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414019879947">Our analysis of survey data from 25 European countries</a> suggests that this is not a purely American phenomenon. </p>
<p>These feelings of social marginalization and a corresponding disillusionment with democracy provide populist politicians of all hues and from different countries with an opportunity to claim that the mainstream elites have betrayed the interests of their hard-working citizens.</p>
<p>Across all of these countries, it turns out that people who engage in fewer social activities with others, mistrust those around them and feel that their contributions to society go largely unrecognized are more likely to have less trust in politicians and lower satisfaction with democracy. </p>
<h2>Marginalization affects voting</h2>
<p>Feelings of social marginalization – reflected in low levels of social trust, limited social engagement and the sense that one lacks social respect – are also linked to whether and how people vote. </p>
<p>People who are socially disconnected are less likely to turn out to vote. But, if they do decide to vote, they are significantly more likely to support populist candidates or radical parties – on either side of the political spectrum – than people who are well integrated into society. </p>
<p>This relationship remains strong even after other factors that might also explain voting for populist politicians, such as gender or education, are taken into account.</p>
<p>There is a striking correspondence between these results and the stories told by people who find populist politicians attractive. From <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/9/6/12803636/arlie-hochschild-strangers-land-louisiana-trump">Trump voters in the American South</a> to <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/returning-reims">radical right supporters in France</a>, a series of ethnographers have heard stories about failures of social integration. </p>
<p>Populist messages, like “take back control” or “make America great again,” find a receptive audience among people who feel pushed to the sidelines of their national community and deprived of the respect accorded full members of it.</p>
<h2>Intersection of economics and culture</h2>
<p>Once populism is seen as a problem of social integration, it becomes apparent that it has both economic and cultural roots that are deeply <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12319">intertwined</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691204529/the-economics-of-belonging">Economic dislocation</a> that deprives people of decent jobs pushes them to the margins of society. But so does <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo22879533.html">cultural alienation</a>, born when people, especially outside large cities, feel that mainstream elites no longer share their values and, even worse, no longer respect the values by which they have lived their lives. </p>
<p>These economic and cultural developments have for long shaped Western politics. Therefore, electoral losses of populist standard bearers such as Trump do not necessarily herald the demise of populism. </p>
<p>The fortunes of any one populist politician may ebb and flow, but draining the reservoir of social marginalization on which populists depend requires a concerted effort for reform aimed at fostering social integration.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s election newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump has been a populist president. Understanding populism’s roots in the US and elsewhere is essential for addressing its rise and threat to democracy.Noam Gidron, Assistant Professor of Political Science,, Hebrew University of JerusalemPeter A. Hall, Krupp Foundation Professor of European Studies, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1503402020-11-19T14:06:00Z2020-11-19T14:06:00ZWhat’s the gold standard, and why does the US benefit from a dollar that isn’t tied to the value of a glittery hunk of metal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370186/original/file-20201118-19-1dqcdq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=285%2C215%2C3948%2C2608&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The gold standard didn't exactly lead to a golden era.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-gold-ingots-on-table-royalty-free-image/1183419859">Athitat Shinagowin/EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The phrase “the gold standard” means, in common parlance, the best available benchmark – as in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3505292/">double-blind randomized trials are the gold standard</a> for determining the efficacy of a vaccine.</p>
<p>Its meaning likely comes from my world of economics and refers to what was once the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/gold-standard.asp">centerpiece of the international monetary system</a>, when the value of most major currencies, including the U.S. dollar, was based on the price of gold. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aier.org/article/judy-shelton-is-right-about-the-gold-standard/">Some economists and others</a>, including <a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/trump-gold-standard/">President Donald Trump</a> and his <a href="https://qz.com/1646318/why-trump-and-judy-shelton-want-the-us-back-on-the-gold-standard/">Federal Reserve Board of Governors nominee Judy Shelton</a>, favor a return to the gold standard because <a href="https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2018/case-new-international-monetary-system">it would impose new rules and “discipline”</a> on a central bank they view as too powerful and whose actions they consider flawed. </p>
<p>This is among several reasons Shelton’s nomination is controversial in the Senate, which <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/935934885/senate-blocks-president-trumps-controversial-nominee-to-the-federal-reserve-boar">voted against confirming her on Nov. 17</a> – though her Republican supporters may have an opportunity to try again.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rlbLcnEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">economist whose focus is on exchange rate policies</a>, I have spent a lot of time <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/exchange-rate-regimes-modern-era">researching monetary and exchange rate policy</a>. A look back at the gold standard and why the world stopped using it shows it’s best left as a relic of history. </p>
<h2>Stability – in good times</h2>
<p>A gold standard is an exchange rate system in which each country’s currency is valued as worth a fixed amount of gold. </p>
<p>During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, one ounce of gold <a href="https://onlygold.com/gold-prices/historical-gold-prices">cost $20.67 in the United States</a> and <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646#gold-prices-by-year">₤4.24 in the U.K.</a>. This meant that someone could convert one British pound to $4.86 and vice versa. </p>
<p>Countries on the gold standard – which <a href="https://eh.net/encyclopedia/gold-standard/#:%7E:text=Center%20countries%20%E2%80%94%20Britain%20in%20the,functioning%20of%20the%20gold%20standard">included all major industrial countries</a> during the system’s heyday from 1871 to 1914 – had a fixed price for an ounce of gold and thus a fixed exchange rate with others who used the system. They kept the same gold peg throughout the period. </p>
<p>The gold standard stabilized currency values and, in so doing, promoted trade and investment, fostering what’s been called the <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/globalization-and-history">first age of globalization</a>. The system collapsed in 1914 at the outbreak of World War I, when most countries suspended its use. Afterward, some countries such as the U.K. and U.S. continued to rely on gold as a centerpiece of their monetary policies, but lingering geopolitical tensions and the high costs of the war made it much less stable, showing its severe flaws in times of crisis. </p>
<p>The onset of the Great Depression finally forced the U.S. and the other countries that still pegged their currencies to gold to abandon the system entirely. Economist <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1093/0195101138.001.0001">Barry Eichengreen has found</a> that efforts to maintain the gold standard at the beginning of the Great Depression ended up worsening the downturn because they limited the ability of central banks like the Fed to respond to deteriorating economic conditions. For example, while central banks today typically cut interest rates to boost a faltering economy, the gold standard required them to focus solely on keeping their currency pegged to gold. </p>
<h2>The end of gold</h2>
<p>After World War II, the leading Western powers adopted a new international monetary system that made the U.S. dollar the world’s reserve currency. </p>
<p>All currencies fluctuated in relation to the dollar, which was convertible to gold at a rate of $35 an ounce. A variety of economic, political and global pressures in the 1960s and 1970s forced President Richard Nixon to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjLmougzoztAhUBF1kFHSMjDNsQFjAPegQIDBAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.federalreservehistory.org%2Fessays%2Fgold_convertibility_ends&usg=AOvVaw34y4Mxn1UhuctUleH4VNK2">abandon the gold standard once and for all</a> by 1971. </p>
<p>Since then, major currencies like the U.S. dollar have traded freely on global exchanges, and their relative value is determined by market forces. The dollar in your pocket is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp">backed by nothing more</a> than your belief that you’ll be able to buy a hot dog with it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Judy Shelton appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for a confirmation hearing on Feb. 13 on Capitol Hill in Washington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370190/original/file-20201118-21-1frnyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Judy Shelton still has a chance to get confirmed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FederalReserveShelton/480c9e95bcec4f2eb217137783663845/photo?Query=%22Judy%20Shelton%22&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=39&currentItemNo=22">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Return to the ‘golden’ years?</h2>
<p>Arguments for returning to a gold standard reappear periodically, typically around times when inflation is raging, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html">such as in the late 1970s</a>. Its backers assert that central bankers are responsible for surging inflation, through policies like low interest rates, and so the gold standard is necessary to rein them in.</p>
<p>It is particularly odd, however, to advocate for a gold standard at a time when one of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/133662179/a-wingnut-argument-for-the-gold-standard">main problems a gold standard would supposedly address</a> – runaway inflation – <a href="https://econofact.org/whats-the-problem-with-low-inflation">has been low for decades</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, going back to a gold standard would create new problems. For example, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDAMGBD228NLBM">price of gold</a> moves around a lot. A year ago an ounce of gold cost $1,457. The pandemic helped drive up the price by 40% to $2,049 in August. As of Nov. 18, it was about $1,885. Clearly, it would be destabilizing if the dollar were pegged to gold when its prices swings wildly. Exchange rates between major currencies <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS">are typically much more stable</a>. </p>
<p>Importantly, going back to a gold standard would handcuff the Fed in its efforts to address changing economic conditions through interest rate policy. The Fed would not be able to lower interest rates in the face of a crisis like the one the world faces today, because doing so would change the value of the dollar relative to gold.</p>
<p>Shelton’s support for the gold standard is just one reason her nomination has run into trouble. Others <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/16/shelton-fed-senate-republicans/">include her lack of support for an independent Federal Reserve</a> and apparent political motivations in her policy positions. For example, <a href="https://opentextbc.ca/principlesofeconomics2eopenstax/chapter/monetary-policy-and-economic-outcomes/">economists generally favor lower interest rates</a> when unemployment is high and the economy is faltering and higher rates when unemployment is low and the economy is strong. <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-11-17/controversial-fed-nominee-shelton-faces-razor-thin-vote">Shelton opposed low rates</a> when a Democrat was in the White House and unemployment was high but embraced them under Trump, even though unemployment was low.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>While there is often spirited debate about monetary policy, Shelton’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/republicans-are-trying-to-jam-through-judy-shelton-she-has-no-business-working-at-the-fed/2020/11/16/449749c6-2840-11eb-9b14-ad872157ebc9_story.html">ideas are so far out of the mainstream</a>, and suspicions of the political motivations of her positions are so prominent, that several hundred <a href="https://medium.com/@fedalumni/economists-urge-senate-rejection-of-fed-nominee-shelton-7dafe56a688a">prominent economists</a> and <a href="https://medium.com/@fedalumni/fed-alumni-urge-senate-rejection-of-fed-nominee-shelton-c4785101e346">Fed alumni</a> have urged the Senate to reject her nomination. </p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is an <a href="https://theconversation.com/paul-volcker-helped-shape-an-independent-federal-reserve-a-vital-legacy-thats-under-threat-128660">independent agency</a> that is vital to America’s economic stability and prosperity. Like the courts, it is important that it acts with integrity and <a href="https://econofact.org/leaning-on-the-fed">free from political considerations</a>. It’s equally important that it not adopt discredited policies like the gold standard, which is a very poor example of the aphorism it inspired.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Trump’s nominee to join the Fed favors returning to the gold standard, an economist explains why the US and the rest of the world abandoned it in the first place.Michael Klein, Professor of International Economic Affairs at The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469112020-10-30T12:48:07Z2020-10-30T12:48:07ZFrom Trump to Trudeau, the escalator is a favorite symbol of political campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364298/original/file-20201019-19-13chrxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=123%2C82%2C2361%2C1511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump rides an escalator to announce his candidacy for the U.S. presidency at Trump Tower on June 16, 2015, in New York City.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/business-mogul-donald-trump-rides-an-escalator-to-a-press-news-photo/477321340?adppopup=true">Christopher Gregory/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In June 2015 Donald Trump rode an escalator into the lobby of Trump Tower in New York City to announce his candidacy for president – an escalator ride that quickly became famous.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/06/14/donald-trump-campaign-announcement-tower-escalator-oral-history-227148">Politico</a> called it “the escalator ride that changed America,” and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/13/donald-trump-presidential-campaign-speech-eyewitness-memories">The Guardian</a> spoke of “the surreal day Trump kicked off his bid for president” with a “golden escalator ride.”</p>
<p>The escalator has <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/urban-job-escalator-stopped-0708">long been a symbol of social mobility</a>, of the ease with which Americans have been able to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/social-mobility-upwards-decline-usa-us-america-economics/">rise to the top of the social and economic hierarchy</a>. For this reason, it has featured in a range of recent political campaigns.</p>
<p>For decades the escalator has been a ready symbol in debates over economic inequality and globalization. For many it captures how the economy used to work, how it no longer seems to work and how it might work again. The escalator’s political meaning has shifted over the years – but it’s never gone away, and candidates on both the right and the left love to invoke it.</p>
<h2>Justin Trudeau’s ascension</h2>
<p><a href="https://colostate.academia.edu/PeterErickson">In my work on the cultural history of the escalator</a>, I have been struck by its persistent use in recent years. </p>
<p>During Justin Trudeau’s 2015 campaign to become prime minister of Canada, a television ad featured the candidate <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-escalator-ad-commercial-twitter-1.3212676">climbing an escalator the wrong way</a>. Trudeau remains in place until he reverses the escalator’s direction and uses it to propel himself upward. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-wYJ-xNeEe4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Campaign ad for Justin Trudeau: “Harder to Get Ahead”</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For Trudeau’s Liberal Party, the escalator served as a metaphor for how upward mobility had languished under the Conservative government of Stephen Harper. </p>
<p>The ad symbolically replaced the 18th-century economist Adam Smith’s metaphor of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/invisible-hand">an “invisible hand”</a> – coined to describe the way that prices seem to rise and fall of their own accord in a capitalist economy – with an escalator. Trudeau’s liberal politics, his campaign promised, were like a “master switch” capable of redirecting the escalator’s flow.</p>
<p>For Trudeau’s leftist critics in the opposition New Democratic Party, though, the escalator ad <a href="https://twitter.com/ndp/status/647876755823333376">symbolized everything that was wrong with Trudeau’s politics</a>, because it asked voters to trust that globalization and <a href="https://prospect.org/economy/corporate-welfare-hurts/">corporate welfare</a> would bring wealth and social mobility. “Stop the Escalator” became <a href="https://twitter.com/ndp/status/647876755823333376">a progressive rallying cry of the 2015 campaign</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump’s television series “The Apprentice” was likewise obsessed with the politics of social mobility. At the end of each episode, contestants were sent <a href="https://splinternews.com/what-i-learned-about-donald-trump-from-binge-watching-t-1793854444">either “up to the suite – or down to the street.”</a> To be important is to have access to the corporate boardroom and the penthouse.</p>
<p>For Trump, riding the escalator is a symbol of social mobility and power. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=Ye6e_VxM00kC&q=escalator#v=snippet&q=escalator&f=false">In “The Art of the Deal</a>,” Trump boasts about how expensive it was to install.</p>
<p>The fact that Trump rode down the escalator, rather than up it – as if he were condescending to come down, rather than inviting us to come up – turned the symbol on its head.</p>
<h2>Criticism of globalization</h2>
<p>The political right around the world has often targeted the escalator. The objection is precisely to its accessibility – that anyone can ride it.</p>
<p>In 2014, during the United Kingdom’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-brexit-divorce-is-here-but-the-bickering-over-alimony-payments-and-who-gets-the-house-is-only-beginning-130663">Brexit referendum</a> over whether to leave the European Union, the populist U.K. Independence Party ran an advertisement depicting an escalator built over the White Cliffs of Dover. The slogan read: “No Border, No Control.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360330/original/file-20200928-16-1knk56d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Brexit Advertisement for the U.K. Independence Party (2014)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360332/original/file-20200928-14-1igcpco.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UKIP Escalator Advertisement (2015)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The word “control” here suggests not only an unprotected border, but a broader sense of social disorder, symbolized by the way that the escalator, a mechanical contraption, is depicted invading a pastoral landscape.</p>
<p>When Trump announced his presidential run after riding down the escalator into the lobby, he focused on issues of mobility and borders. He complained, infamously, that Mexico was sending America <a href="https://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/">its rapists and drug dealers</a> – that the United States had entered an era in which working-class Americans were stuck in place while migrants, terrorists and drug dealers had become mobile.</p>
<p>Implicitly, Trump in 2015 questioned whether America’s engine of social mobility was working for the “right” people. </p>
<h2>Escalation versus de-escalation</h2>
<p>The escalator has shaped political rhetoric more generally. When we refer to the way a conflict escalates, we are using a metaphor that <a href="https://www.etymonline.com/word/escalate">originated with the escalator</a>.</p>
<p>The term is of incredibly recent origin. It first emerged in the 1920s as a verb for <a href="https://www.etymonline.com/word/escalate">riding an escalator</a>. And it took on its present meaning only in 1959, in the context of the Cold War.</p>
<p>To “escalate” in the context of the Cold War was to take the conflict to the next level. It was not to commit a single act of retaliation but to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_warfare_in_South_Vietnam,_1963%E2%80%931969">initiate a new sustained level of violence</a>. “Escalation theory” was <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/On_Escalation.html?id=0No5uIPpD8AC">intended to slow conflict</a>, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691650463/escalation-and-nuclear-option">to avert an immediate turn toward nuclear war among the global superpowers</a>. </p>
<p>Since then, however, “escalation” has mostly served to rationalize never-ending, low-level forms of conflict. Violence, in this way, is ratcheted up and down, escalated and de-escalated, but it never ceases. </p>
<p>Modern American politics is characterized by unending escalation. One can cite the wars in <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/On_Escalation.html?id=0No5uIPpD8AC">Vietnam</a> and, now, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057%2F9781137428561_3">Afghanistan</a>. There’s the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/11/21/246602362/filibuster-vote-marks-escalation-in-d-c-s-partisan-wars">partisan rhetoric</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/09/13/why-political-brinkmanship-from-both-parties-could-be-ruinous-to-the-economy-stock-market-and-your-job/#56cfd3bf78a4">political brinkmanship</a> over Senate procedures and Supreme Court appointments. There’s <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/police-reformers-push-de-escalation-training-jury-effectiveness/story?id=71262003">police violence</a>. </p>
<p>Much of the public debate around these issues is preoccupied with finding “de-escalation” strategies – ways to slow America’s seemingly uncontrollable cycle of conflict and violence.</p>
<h2>Why escalators</h2>
<p>The escalator has become such a powerful and pervasive symbol in both politics and speech perhaps precisely because it is a machine. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>It operates mechanically, “on its own accord” and without human input, making it a ready symbol for undemocratic, technocratic policymaking that occurs without input from the general public.</p>
<p>Trudeau was unfazed by these associations. But the growing popularity of the escalator, as a symbol, on the political right reflects <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-danger-of-deconsolidation-the-democratic-disconnect/">a growing cynicism about democratic governance</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article was made possible by a fellowship from the Center for the Study of Origins at the University of Colorado, Boulder.</span></em></p>Candidates from both the right and the left use the escalator as a metaphor for the economic perils – and perks – of upward social mobility.Peter Erickson, Assistant Professor of German, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1434062020-08-03T11:59:22Z2020-08-03T11:59:22ZInternational trade has cost Americans millions of jobs. Investing in communities might offset those losses<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349410/original/file-20200724-33-65dkij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C47%2C3895%2C4868&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some economists support policies that invest in communities and towns as the best way to offset job losses.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/u8NQockJPwg">Photo by Andrea Leopardi for Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Arguing against globalization is like arguing against the laws of gravity, <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2002/sgsm8262.doc.htm#:%7E:text=It%20has%20been%20said%20that,allows%20only%20heavyweights%20to%20survive.">said</a> former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. <a href="https://searchcio.techtarget.com/definition/globalization">Globalization</a>, the international trade in goods and services with minimal barriers between countries, may seem inevitable as the world’s economies become more <a href="https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/162/27684.html">interdependent</a>. </p>
<p>Properly regulated, globalization can be a powerful force for social good. For wealthy nations, globalization can mean less expensive goods, additional spending and a <a href="https://velocityglobal.com/blog/globalization-benefits-and-challenges/">higher standard of living</a>. For those who live and work in poorer nations, globalization can lead to greater prosperity with the <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/book-review-defense-globalization">power to</a> reduce child labor, increase literacy and enhance the economic and social standing of women. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://rbj.net/2016/08/12/misconceptions-about-free-trade-and-globalization/">not everyone</a> gains from globalization. An analysis of 120 countries between 1988 and 2008 and published by the <a href="https://www.theglobalist.com/the-real-winners-and-losers-of-globalization/">World Bank</a> illustrates who <a href="http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/914431468162277879/pdf/WPS6719.pdf">has lost</a>. The U.S. trade deficit with China, for instance, has had an adverse effect on American workers, effectively <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/china-trade-deal-will-not-restore-3-7-million-u-s-jobs-lost-since-china-entered-the-wto-in-2001/#:%7E:text=Scott-,China%20trade%20deal%20will%20not%20restore%203.7%20million%20U.S.%20jobs,entered%20the%20WTO%20in%202001&text=It%20is%20unlikely%20to%20significantly,trade%20deficits%20in%20manufactured%20goods.">eliminating 3.7 million jobs</a> between 2001 and 2018. More than 75% of those job losses were in manufacturing, accounting for more than half of all U.S. manufacturing jobs lost or displaced during this period.</p>
<p>If globalization is inevitable, then what are the best strategies to help American workers get back into the workforce when their jobs have been eliminated? </p>
<h2>Job loss and the working class</h2>
<p>The economist Branko Milanovic, using <a href="http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/914431468162277879/pdf/WPS6719.pdf">data from the World Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674984035">argues</a> that the losers from globalization are working people in rich nations. Milanovic’s <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674984035">research</a> demonstrates that a large portion of the lower middle class in the U.S. and Western Europe have seen little to no gain in income since 1988. At the same time, 200 million Chinese, 90 million Indians and nearly 30 million people in Indonesia, Brazil, Egypt and Mexico have <a href="https://www.theglobalist.com/the-real-winners-and-losers-of-globalization/">profited from globalization</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349757/original/file-20200727-15-1jl7ze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Since 1991, China has made tremendous gains in manufacturing exports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/5bekMv8dsiM">Photo by Owen Winkel for Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many American workers have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2121">negatively impacted</a> by liberalized trade with China, the so-called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041">China trade shock</a>,” because goods that China exports to the U.S. have substituted for comparable American-made products. From an economic perspective, China successfully increased its share of world manufacturing exports from a little more than 2% in 1991 to 28% in <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-share-of-global-manufacturing-output/#:%7E:text=According%20to%20data%20published%20by,China%20overtook%20it%20in%202010.">2018</a>. By contrast, in 2001, <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/china-trade-outsourcing-and-jobs/">U.S. trade</a> began to increase with China when the latter joined the <a href="https://www.wto.org/">World Trade Organization</a>, the international organization that determines the global rules of trade. Even though U.S. exports to China have increased over time, since the U.S. buys more from China than we sell to them, a <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277">large trade deficit</a> has opened up. The growth of this deficit means that the U.S. is losing jobs in manufacturing and foregoing opportunities to add jobs in this sector because imports from China have skyrocketed, while exports have not increased as much.</p>
<p>The trade deficit has had <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/growth-in-u-s-china-trade-deficit-between-2001-and-2015-cost-3-4-million-jobs-heres-how-to-rebalance-trade-and-rebuild-american-manufacturing/#:%7E:text=From%202001%20to%202015%2C%20imports,to%20%24116.1%20billion%20in%202015.">different impacts</a> on regions within the U.S. Some regions are devastated by layoffs and factory closings, while others are surviving but not growing the way they might if new factories were opening and existing plants were hiring more workers. This slowdown in manufacturing job generation is also contributing to stagnating wages and incomes of typical workers and widening economic inequality.</p>
<h2>Retraining and moving for work</h2>
<p>What are the solutions for <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/manufacturing-job-loss-trade-not-productivity-is-the-culprit/">the millions of American workers</a> who have lost their jobs? Economists generally <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2358751">support</a> “people-based” over “place-based” policies and investments. The rationale is that it’s more important to invest in workers rather than bolster a place where workers live. Economists would argue that directing public funds into regions doing poorly is akin to <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">wasting money</a>. The logical outcome of such policies is that towns that have lost their economic base are allowed to shrink while other economies take <a href="https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2000/11/places-people-policies.html">their place</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349760/original/file-20200727-15-16slfoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Without an economic engine, towns can wither and die.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/HPkYgjuSI4A">Photo by Cam Bradford by Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>The Department of Labor’s <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/tradeact">Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers</a> program helps workers displaced by international trade with job training and relocation assistance, subsidized health insurance and extended unemployment benefits. Trade Adjustment Assistance is a “people-based” policy because it invests in workers. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-selective-retreat-from-trade-with-china-makes-sense-for-the-united-states-141110">believe that</a>, relative to the magnitude of the job losses, Trade Adjustment Assistance provides too little relief. While there is little support among economists for <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">place-based policies</a>, recent evidence demonstrates that such policies may deserve another look.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2015-07.pdf">Examples of place-based policies</a> include enterprise zones where economic incentives are offered to firms to create jobs in economically challenged areas and policies that seek to promote economic development by investing in infrastructure, such as the <a href="https://econofact.org/do-place-based-policies-work">Tennessee Valley Authority</a>, which, since 1933, provided electrification to the rural South, promoting industrialization and enhancing the quality of life in that region.</p>
<h2>Adapting to joblessness</h2>
<p>People-based policies are predicated on the assumption that if given the right incentives, people will leave economically strapped areas and move to flourishing regions. Yet <a href="http://economics.mit.edu/files/7723">research</a> shows that even in regions of the U.S. where deep manufacturing job losses have occurred, workers frequently did not move to new jobs. Those who lost their jobs adjusted, spent less money and stayed put, resulting in a further <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">reduction of economic activity</a> in regions that, in turn, became poorer.</p>
<p>Workers who can move to more promising locales, but choose not to, is a phenomenon not only in the U.S. but in <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/6685/the-rise-of-the-east-and-the-far-east-german-labor-markets-and-trade-integration">Germany</a>, <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp8324.pdf">Norway</a> and <a href="https://DOI.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.879982">Spain</a>, even if economically depressed regions have a negative impact on those who <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">live there</a>. Men – particularly young, white men – in the U.S. are less likely to graduate from college, more likely to bear children out of wedlock and more likely to suffer from what the economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton have called “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism">deaths of despair</a>.” These deaths arise because of a deep <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/23/why-americans-are-dying-from-despair">sense of hopelessness</a> stemming from unemployment, lack of resources and alcohol and drug dependency. </p>
<h2>Strengthening a place called home</h2>
<p>If relatively low-skilled workers <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">are unwilling to move</a>, then should policies that favor people-based programs continue? Or is it better to make place-based investments, as the 2019 Nobel laureates <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/abhijit-v-banerjee/good-economics-for-hard-times/9781541762879/">Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo suggest</a>?</p>
<p>I believe that the U.S. should back policies that support people where they live and invest in those places when global trade, specifically liberalized trade, has taken a <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/infographic-free-trade-agreements-have-hurt-american-workers/">toll on American workers</a>. Regional policymaking might ask what is needed so that those who are unemployed do not feel, as Nobel Prize-winning poet Gabriela Mistral writes, that “everyone left and we have remained on a path that goes on without us.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143406/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amitrajeet A. Batabyal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When manufacturing jobs disappear, what are the best ways to help unemployed workers?Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1391742020-06-14T12:27:43Z2020-06-14T12:27:43ZSurviving the coronavirus requires escaping the status quo — together<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340611/original/file-20200609-21226-1e5c8ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C2151&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters take a knee during a demonstration calling for justice for the death of George Floyd and all victims of police brutality in Montréal on June 7, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world was ill-prepared for COVID-19, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92467/">despite SARS</a>, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html">Ebola</a> and many other <a href="https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/responding-global-public-health-crises/2020-01">public health crises</a> and despite <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/ten-threats-to-global-health-in-2019">numerous reports</a>, commissions, warnings and even prescient films like <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239913-how-realistic-is-contagion-the-movie-doesnt-skimp-on-science/"><em>Contagion</em></a>.</p>
<p>We’re stuck in a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/covid-19-divides-u-s-society-by-race-class-and-age">social class quagmire</a> that disadvantaged the majority of citizens leading up to COVID-19.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/01/george-floyd-protests-editorials-worldwide">killing of an unarmed Black man, George Floyd</a>, by police in the United States, and the ensuing massive protests, have underscored that entrenched, systemic racism is ripping society to shreds. </p>
<p>As we near the 100-day mark of the COVID-19 pandemic being declared by the World Health Organization, I have three proposals for escape hatches from the status quo: <a href="http://www.education4democracy.net/single-post/2019/03/18/Announcing-a-new-book-%E2%80%9CIt%E2%80%99s-not-education-that-scares-me-it%E2%80%99s-the-educators%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D-Is-there-still-hope-for-democracy-in-education-and-education-for-democracy">reimagining democracy beyond elections</a>, <a href="https://indigenouspeoplesatlasofcanada.ca/section/truth-and-reconciliation/">reconciling</a> before taxation and humanizing <a href="https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2020/03/global-solidarity-covid-19-crisis">global interactions</a>.</p>
<p>The objective is to underscore that there are paths that allow us to stop cultivating extreme vulnerabilities and social inequalities after COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Reimagining democracy beyond elections</h2>
<p>The corporate-dominated, elite-based political model leaves little room for democracy. The <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/the-covid-19-pandemic-is-exposing-the-plague-of-neoliberalism/">hyper-capitalist</a> or neoliberal model of governance underpinning elections has come to define democracy. This includes endless campaigning, fundraising, polling, marketing and strategizing. The goal is to win, not to support or build a democracy. </p>
<p>This hands over endless resources, authority and decision-making power to a small group — a political party — with a primary goal of maintaining or obtaining power. There are also problems of representation, inclusion <a href="https://www.academia.edu/39810146/Citizen_Engagement_in_the_Contemporary_Era_of_Fake_News_Hegemonic_Distraction_or_Control_of_the_Social_Media_Context">and citizen participation.</a> </p>
<p>Concurrently, there are significant social movements — like <a href="https://blacklivesmatter.com/">Black Lives Matters</a>, <a href="http://www.idlenomore.ca/">Idle No More</a>, <a href="https://metoomvmt.org/">#metoo</a>, <a href="http://occupywallst.org/">Occupy</a>, the <a href="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/arcadia/collection/global-environmental-movements">environmental movement</a> and the <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/what-a-21st-century-peace-movement-looks-like/">peace movement</a> — and innovations, projects and mobilizations taking place around the world despite the traditional forms of democracy that underpin public policy and programs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340604/original/file-20200609-21219-1yr9fz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Washington Monument and the White House are visible behind the words Black Lives Matter, painted in bright yellow letters on 16th Street in Washington, D.C., on June 6, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Khalid Naji-Allah/Executive Office of the Mayor via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Reimagining democracy beyond elections should be a priority in the post-coronavirus world. Transformative and critically engaged education needs to be aligned with this goal. Similarly, <a href="https://www.participatorybudgeting.org/what-is-pb/">participatory budgeting</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFwReSYt_W4">consensus democracy</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11266-018-0031-x">solidarity-based economics</a>, mandating <a href="https://www.samaracanada.com/samarablog/blog-post/samara-main-blog/2018/12/21/improving-political-representation-of-marginalized-communities">representation for marginalized groups</a> and <a href="https://www.citizenlab.co/blog/civic-engagement/how-citizen-participation-helps-to-rebuild-trust-within-communities/?utm_source=CitizenLab+Newsletter+%28GDPR+optin%29+EN&utm_campaign=b7aa0fd122-en-newsletter-January20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49e1e8647d-b7aa0fd122-199002701&goal=0_49e1e8647d-b7aa0fd122-199002701">innovative citizen participation initiatives</a> should be considered.</p>
<p><a href="https://americansfortaxfairness.org/issues/tax-havens/examples-of-offshore-corporate-tax-dodging-fixed-by-the-stop-tax-haven-abuse-act/">Eliminating off-shore tax havens</a>, considering a ceiling for a <a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/would-a-maximum-wage-law-work-for-canada">maximum wage</a> while augmenting the minimum wage, instituting a substantial <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/does-a-guaranteed-annual-income-actually-work/">guaranteed annual income</a> and <a href="https://www.raisingtheroof.org/about-homelessness/housing-as-a-human-right/">making housing a human right</a> for all homeless and disadvantaged people should all be part of the equation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/basic-income-a-no-brainer-in-economic-hard-times-101006">Basic income: A no-brainer in economic hard times</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Lastly, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-political-contributions-1.3895134">eliminating fundraising from political activities</a> and publishing data on racism, poverty, discrimination, corruption and discretionary spending, along with action and accountability plans overseen by citizen groups, could all be part of this conversation.</p>
<h2>Reconciliation before taxation</h2>
<p>We can’t continue to live in a society with rampant inequality as if it doesn’t exist, or as if those most affected by generational and systemic injustice somehow deserve this treatment.</p>
<p>The reconciliation process in Canada has been ineffective, and going on for so long that generations of <a href="https://www.afn.ca/policy-sectors/lands-claims/">First Nations have been negotiating</a> without much light at the end of the tunnel.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340613/original/file-20200609-21226-11px5db.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joyce Hunter, right, whose brother Charlie Hunter died at St. Anne’s Residential School in 1974, and Stephanie Scott of the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation, lay down a ceremonial cloth with the names of 2,800 children who died in residential schools at a ceremony in Gatineau, Québec in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before every successive government proclaims how we need to <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/09/26/475083/trumps-corporate-tax-cut-not-trickling/">reduce taxes</a>, we should consider how we can first plan for a meaningful reconciliation. </p>
<p>As we continue the standstill, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/21/indigenous-languages_a_23465069/">Indigenous languages are being lost</a> and young people are being denied life and educational opportunities. For some, potable water is still a privilege, not a right, health care is woefully inadequate, discrimination is a debilitating reality and legitimate land claims are being ignored. If not now, when?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-covid-19-crisis-calls-us-towards-reconciliation-139259">How the COVID-19 crisis calls us towards reconciliation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Reconciliation, at several levels, can no longer be considered a throwaway campaign pledge. The political, economic, social and moral cost is simply too high to pretend that it doesn’t matter. </p>
<p>We could consider pegging a percentage of all federal budgets to rapidly enhance socio-economic conditions for First Nations. We could develop solidarity programs between every secondary school in Canada and Indigenous communities, making it a condition for graduation. </p>
<p>We could slash investments in military production and transfer the funds to Indigenous knowledge, culture, development and self-governance. We should also enlarge reconciliation to address the legitimate and long-delayed concerns of racialized communities, notably Black Canadians. </p>
<h2>Humanize global interactions</h2>
<p>Stock-market indices, unemployment rates, home sales, trade imbalances and profit margins aren’t helpful in determining the health, welfare, happiness, liberty, engagement and humanity of a society. </p>
<p>Those indicators don’t indicate the state of poverty, racism, sexism, discrimination, conflict, corruption or access to health care and education. Notably, the environment is neither prioritized nor seriously addressed in neoliberal globalization. </p>
<p>Who benefits, how and to what degree? </p>
<p>Do we have the courage to denounce structural global inequities and racism against migrant workers and immigrants while simultaneously asking why Canada and the United States need to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/03/17/migrant-workers-help-grow-our-food-coronavirus-is-leaving-them-in-limbo.html">import low-wage agricultural workers from Mexico</a>, for example? Why does Canada, and a host of other countries, continue to <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/08/killer-facts-2019-the-scale-of-the-global-arms-trade/">sell arms</a> to just about anyone? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-checkered-history-of-arms-sales-to-human-rights-violators-91559">Canada’s checkered history of arms sales to human rights violators</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Why do we <a href="https://www.indy100.com/article/usa-american-army-invasions-police-actions-overseas-dod-defense-war-troops-deployment-marines-7908611">invade some countries</a>, <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/overthrowing-other-peoples-governments-the-master-list-of-u-s-regime-changes/5400829">destabilize the regimes</a> of others <a href="https://www.pressenza.com/2019/11/un-overwhelmingly-votes-for-ending-u-s-blockade-against-cuba/">and blockade</a> still others? Why do we set up <a href="https://cirdi.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Conflict-Full-Layout-060817.pdf">mining operations</a> around the world amid widespread claims of <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/fighting-corruption-in-mining-poses-tough-challenges/a-41645234">corruption</a>, collusion, <a href="https://republicofmining.com/category/mining-environmental-accidents/">environmental catastrophe</a> and the <a href="http://www.dplf.org/sites/default/files/report_canadian_mining_executive_summary.pdf">assault on Indigenous Peoples</a>? </p>
<p>Extreme poverty, vulnerability, desperation and degradation lead to a multitude of global forces that impact and affect everyone, including mass migration, environmental catastrophe and political and economic instability. </p>
<p>Eliminating exploitation, corruption, racism, military conflict and nefarious globalization should be a necessity in the post-COVID-19 world. </p>
<p>And the most global issue facing all of us — <a href="https://mronline.org/2020/04/12/covid-19-is-a-sign-of-our-fate-if-we-do-not-take-radical-action-interview-of-michael-d-yates/">environmental destruction</a> — must be at the centre of international affairs.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Our environmental, political, economic, social, health and education systems are intertwined and interdependent. </p>
<p>They have been constructed, upheld and operated by human beings, and, as such, they can be changed for the greater good of everyone. Canadians have low <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/21/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/">voter participation</a>, so creative, imaginative solutions must be found to unleash more equitable, meaningful and engaging ways to participate and live together, outside of elections.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340623/original/file-20200609-21230-1o4vjvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman holds a sign reading ‘White Silence = Violence’ as thousands of people gather for a peaceful demonstration in support of George Floyd and Regis Korchinski-Paquet and protest against racism, injustice and police brutality, in Vancouver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Within the American context, scholar and activist <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2020/6/1/cornel_west_us_moment_of_reckoning">Cornel West</a> put it succinctly: The American empire is imploding.
In Canada, the mysterious death in Toronto of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6999791/toronto-woman-death-high-park-activists/">Regis Korchinski-Paquet</a>, an Indigenous-Black woman, has highlighted the fragility of race relations here. </p>
<p>Surviving COVID-19 means reconsidering what type of world we want to build and live in, together. We can no longer feign being a democracy that is not democratic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul R. Carr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Surviving COVID-19 means reconsidering what type of world we want to build and live in, together. We can no longer feign being a democracy that is not democratic.Paul R. Carr, Full Professor, Département des sciences de l'éducation & Chair-holder, UNESCO Chair in Democracy, Global Citizenship and Transformative Education (DCMÉT), Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1402192020-06-11T12:20:12Z2020-06-11T12:20:12ZGlobalization really started 1,000 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340427/original/file-20200608-176585-nn0ent.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C72%2C2548%2C1697&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'The Meeting of Two Worlds,' a sculpture at L'Anse aux Meadows, commemorates the meeting of Vikings and Native Americans around the year 1000.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:L%27Anse_aux_Meadows,_The_Meeting_of_Two_Worlds.jpg">D. Gordon E. Robertson/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Viking ships touched down on the Canadian island of Newfoundland around the year 1000, at what is now the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/4/">archaeological site known as L'Anse aux Meadows</a>.</p>
<p>For the first time, the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean were connected.</p>
<p>When the Vikings landed, the indigenous people immediately started to trade with them. The Vikings describe this initial encounter in <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/vinland-sagas-the-norse-discovery-of-america/oclc/1833101">“Eirik’s Saga</a>,” an oral epic written down after 1264 about the Norse voyages across the North Atlantic from Greenland to today’s Canada. </p>
<p>The locals brought animal pelts to trade, and in exchange, the Vikings offered lengths of red-dyed woolen cloth. As their supply of cloth began to run short, the <a href="https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/saga.htm">Vikings cut the cloth into smaller and smaller pieces</a>, some just as wide as a person’s finger, but the locals wanted the cloth so much that they continued to offer the same number of pelts in trade.</p>
<p>All over the world at this time, the allure of novel goods led to 1,000 years of trade and interactions among people from different places, in what is now known as globalization. They are the subject of my recent book “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Year-1000/Valerie-Hansen/9781501194108">The Year 1000: When Explorers Connected the World – and Globalization Began</a>.”</p>
<p>The rapid spread of the coronavirus and the resulting social and economic shutdown around the globe have changed everyone’s understanding of the dangers of globalization, including mine. A society that can get only certain necessary items from a trade partner is vulnerable as a result of that dependence. In the past, there were built-in limits in global trade that prevented earlier societies from becoming totally reliant on outside goods. Those limits no longer exist today.</p>
<h2>A worldwide network of pathways</h2>
<p>About 10 years after their arrival at L'Anse aux Meadows, the Vikings <a href="https://militaryhistorynow.com/2013/02/20/old-world-vs-new-the-first-battles-between-native-north-americans-and-europeans/">abandoned their settlement</a>, most likely because of conflicts with the local inhabitants. But they continued to sail to Canada to get lumber to bring back to Greenland and Iceland, where trees were scarce.</p>
<p>Similar encounters around the world took place when <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/east-africas-forgotten-slave-trade/a-50126759">Muslim traders and missionaries</a> went from the Middle East to West Africa around 1000, when speakers of Malayo-Polynesian languages sailed from the Malay peninsula west to Madagascar, settling there by 1000, and across the Pacific to <a href="https://www.hawaii.edu/news/article.php?aId=4097">Hawaii and Easter Island between 1025 and 1290</a>. A whole new system of maritime and overland routes opened up as a result of these expeditions. In the year 1000, an object or message could travel all the way around the world for the first time.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340165/original/file-20200605-176542-1lnkuar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An early Qingbai ware vase from Jingdezhen, China, made in the 11th or 12th century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/49914">Metropolitan Museum of Art</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the year 1000, of course, there was no electricity or steam power, but mass production was still possible. </p>
<p>In China’s Fujian province, dragon kilns, which stretched over 300 feet up the sides of hills, were fueled by wood, coke or coal. Producing <a href="https://www.britannica.com/art/Chinese-pottery/The-Five-Dynasties-907-960-and-Ten-Kingdoms-902-978">between 10,000 and 30,000 vessels in a single firing</a>, these kilns employed hundreds, possibly thousands, of craftsmen, who worked full-time.</p>
<p>Individual potters crafted vases, bottles, bowls and plates on their potter’s wheels and then fired them to higher temperatures than any other kilns in the world. The glazed pots were the iPhones of their day, goods desired by everyone because they were both beautiful and easy to clean.</p>
<p>Archaeologists have excavated Chinese wares in <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/afriques/1836">coastal ports in Kenya, Tanzania and Comoros</a> along the world’s most heavily traveled sea route at the time, which connected East Africa, the Middle East and China.</p>
<h2>Complete dominance of foreign markets was impossible</h2>
<p>Chinese ceramics were among the the most highly coveted trade goods of their day, but Chinese potters never succeeded in dominating foreign markets in the way that modern exporters can. </p>
<p>Two important factors prevented them from doing so. First, even though Chinese kilns could produce thousands of pots in a single firing, production was not sufficiently high to flood the markets of other countries. Second, ship transport in the past was much less reliable than modern transport today.</p>
<p>Historically, ships could be blown off course during storms or sink when they ran into rocks. The uncertainties of transport limited the amount of goods reaching foreign ports. My research has revealed that China’s export ceramics never overwhelmed local manufacturers, who copied Chinese jars and pots.</p>
<p>For instance, archaeologists digging in the modern city of Shush in Iran excavated <a href="http://cartelfr.louvre.fr/cartelfr/visite?srv=car_not_frame&idNotice=33290">local knockoffs of Chinese pots</a>. The imitations were ingenious, but inferior. Because they had been fired at much lower temperatures, they were much more fragile than Chinese pots, and the glazes are not smooth. Despite their defects, local copies have surfaced at archaeological sites alongside imported vessels from China at multiple Indian Ocean ports, showing that local manufacturers were able to innovate and hang onto market share. Even if the supply of Chinese ceramics was cut off, local consumers could obtain the goods they needed.</p>
<p>When supply lines have been cut off in the past, people have managed to find new sources of the goods they desired. The clearest examples were during World War I and World War II. When it became impossible to import something from enemy powers – and this could happen overnight – ingenious merchants located new supplies or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ersatz_good">created an equivalent</a> such as synthetic rubber or the ersatz teas Germans blended from herbs when they could not access real tea.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340428/original/file-20200608-176554-13unphr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Airbus Beluga, one of the world’s largest cargo planes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AirExpo_2014_-_Beluga_02_(cropped).jpg">Don-vip/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/g2467/11-of-the-largest-cargo-planes-in-the-sky/">vast capacity of cargo planes</a> and modern ships means that they can supply a community with entirely imported goods and eliminate all local production. The coronavirus pandemic has made Americans realize how dependent they are on foreign countries for key goods. </p>
<p>In 2018, for example, a confidential U.S. Department of Commerce study concluded <a href="https://www.thewirechina.com/2020/04/12/chinas-antibiotics-dominance/">China supplied 97% of all the antibiotics</a> Americans consumed. Ceramics aren’t as important to people’s health as antibiotics, but modern imports of all kinds can overwhelm local manufacturers today in a way that was not possible in the past.</p>
<p>That’s the challenge for the future: figuring out how to tame globalization so that local producers can survive alongside manufacturing superpowers. The past gives us reason to be optimistic: When supply lines have been cut off, people have managed to come up with alternative sources. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valerie Hansen received funding from the Institute of Advanced Study at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, Xiamen University in China, the Collège de France, and Yale University.</span></em></p>The allure of novel goods was so strong that it triggered 1,000 years of trade and interactions among people from different places, but there were limits on globalization then that no longer exist,Valerie Hansen, Professor of History, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1394952020-05-27T12:50:11Z2020-05-27T12:50:11ZCoronavirus weekly: where next for globalisation after the crisis?<p>As lockdown measures start to be eased in most countries around the world, the experts of The Conversation’s global network have focused this week on the major trends that are reshaping trade and the global economy.</p>
<p>Just before the pandemic struck, the economy was already losing momentum. However, the crisis is unlikely to put a stop to globalisation: rather, coronavirus is the starting point for a reconfiguration of the global system. Value chains are shortening in some sectors, China is seeking to extend government control over its economy, and global consumption has been undermined by the recession in the US. </p>
<p>Academics in our network analyse the impact of the pandemic on globalisation. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320716/original/file-20200316-18073-ruhw8b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This is our weekly roundup of expert info about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/covid-19-82431">coronavirus</a>.</strong>
<br><em>The Conversation, a not-for-profit group, works with a wide range of academics across its global network. Together we produce evidence-based analysis and insights. The articles are free to read – there is no paywall – and to <a href="http://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines">republish</a>. Keep up to date with the latest research by <a href="http://theconversation.com/newsletter">reading our free newsletter</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Reshuffling the deck</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-wont-kill-globalisation-but-a-shakeup-is-inevitable-137847">China’s international trade mapped</a>:</strong> In order to understand the magnitude of the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, Jun Du, Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch and Oleksandr Shepotylo of Aston University mapped China’s recent trade. They showed that worst-affected Chinese imports are machinery and luxury goods. As for exports, goods whose production is labour-intensive, such as furniture, have fallen drastically, as well as capital goods such as nuclear reactors. According to these economists, these trends could be long-lasting, as most countries become aware of the fragility of global value chains – without, however, completely undermining globalisation.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337021/original/file-20200522-124818-zrw86.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australian-barley-growers-are-the-victims-of-weaponised-trade-rules-139037">Tensions between Australia and China:</a></strong> Richard Holden of the Unversity of New South Wales wonders about the new tensions over barley and the impact that the crisis could have on relations between the two countries.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Return of the local economy:</strong> Some countries, faced with the uncertainties of the future, prefer to turn to more local forms of economy. This is the case in Canada, particularly in the area of fisheries. Kristen Lowitt of Brandon University and Charles Z. Levkoe of Lakehead University have looked at <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-fish-local-can-help-feed-communities-and-support-economies-135613">policies</a> in north-western Ontario trying to help local people to benefit more from the fish caught in the Thunder Bay area, which are generally destined for export.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Golden days are over:</strong> Before the pandemic, the global economy was already showing signs of fragility against the backdrop of trade tensions between China and the US. Countries had been building up their gold reserves, but then just before the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://theconversation.com/countries-went-on-a-gold-buying-spree-before-coronavirus-took-hold-heres-why-138173">demand slowed</a>. “In truth, this was not entirely surprising”, writes Drew Woodhouse (Sheffield Hallam University). “Purchasing bullion at close to a seven-year high, and after a month of prices fluctuating plus or minus about 13%, is no particularly prudent way to consolidate economic and geopolitical power.”</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>China’s recovery</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Protection and control:</strong> Chinese Premier Li Keqiang gave a 55-minute speech at China’s National People’s Congress on May 22, which had been postponed for two months due to the pandemic, in which he outlined the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-coronavirus-recovery-strategy-explained-139178">recovery strategy</a>. He set out a roadmap, deciphered by Jane Duckett, Holly Snape, Hua Wang, Yingru Li (University of Glasgow), with two watchwords: “protection” and “control”. Li stressed that continued vigilance against the coronavirus will be a core thread determining everything from macro-level strategy down to micro-level policy for the foreseeable future in China.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Hard times</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>On your own:</strong> The economic crisis is hitting the US hard – tens of millions of Americans are now registering for unemployment as companies close and lay off workers. Despite the federal government’s efforts, people are unable to meet their immediate financial needs for food, care and shelter. As Paul Shafer (Boston University) details, the crisis reveals the <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-covid-19-has-exposed-gaps-in-the-us-social-safety-net-138233">major flaws</a> in the American social safety net. </li>
</ul>
<p>Globally, the pandemic has also hit developing countries hard.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Food insecurity:</strong> Borja Santos Porras (IE University) is concerned about the poverty and food insecurity that the crisis is causing in low-income countries. They believe that these two factors <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-pobreza-que-generara-la-crisis-puede-cobrarse-mas-vidas-que-la-propia-enfermedad-138922">could kill more people than the disease itself</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Pandemic poverty:</strong> In Indonesia, the poorest are also at the mercy of the virus. Fisca Miswari Aulia (BAPPENAS), Maliki (BAPPENAS) and M Niaz Asadullah (University of Malaya) estimate that <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-intervention-model-shows-covid-19-will-drag-at-least-3-6-million-indonesians-into-poverty-138305">an additional 3.6 million people</a> could face poverty as a result of the pandemic.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Refugees struggling:</strong> In East Africa, it is the plight of refugees in Nairobi that interests Naohiko Omata (University of Oxford). He points out that these populations have very low incomes, most often generated by daily street sales, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/many-refugees-living-in-nairobi-struggle-to-survive-because-of-covid-19-138455">are directly affected</a> by the disease. </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320030/original/file-20200312-116261-a6ugi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=90&fit=crop&dpr=2" alt="Sign up to The Conversation" width="100%"></a></p>
<p><em>Get the latest news and advice on <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/covid-19">COVID-19</a>, direct from the experts in your inbox. Join hundreds of thousands who trust experts by <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">subscribing to our newsletter</a></strong>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This week, our experts are looking at the major trends in post-crisis globalisation.Gemma Ware, Head of AudioThibault Lieurade, Chef de rubrique Economie + Entreprise, The Conversation FranceCamille Khodor, Éditrice Économie + Entreprise, The Conversation FranceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1385292020-05-13T20:03:46Z2020-05-13T20:03:46ZPandemic dents Australians’ views of both China and the United States<p>Both China and the United States have suffered reputational damage with the Australian public as a result of their handling of the coronavirus crisis, according to a Lowy COVIDpoll.</p>
<p>Most Australians (68%) say they feel “less favourable towards China’s system of government” when thinking about China’s handling of the outbreak.</p>
<p>Nearly seven in ten (69%) think China has dealt with it badly.</p>
<p><iframe id="KHT6c" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KHT6c/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>An overwhelming 90% believe the US has performed badly. The US is rated at the bottom of a list of six countries, also including Singapore, the United Kingdom and Italy, in how well COVID has been handled.</p>
<p>In contrast, 93% think Australia has done well so far.</p>
<p>Building on the anti-Trump feeling that showed up in earlier Lowy polling, 73% said they would prefer Democratic candidate Joe Biden to become president at the November election, compared 23% who want Donald Trump to be re-elected.</p>
<p>The poll of 3036 was done April 14-27.</p>
<p>It comes as trade relations with China have become increasingly tense this week with disputes over Australian exports of barley and beef. China has suspended imports from four abattoirs in Australia and threatened hefty tariffs on Australian barley.</p>
<p>Although the barley row has been going on some time, as have some of the beef complaints, the actions on both fronts are seen as retaliation for Australia pushing for a inquiry into the origin and handling of COVID-19.</p>
<p>As of late Wednesday trade minister Simon Birmingham had not been able to get in contact with his Chinese counterpart.</p>
<p>The trade difficulties are also generating domestic pressure.</p>
<p>On Wednesday Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said she was writing to Birmingham asking him to get a resolution to the beef dispute as soon as possible. She said thousands of Queensland jobs were involved.</p>
<p>Australia China Business Council CEO Helen Sawczak said: “To go out like a shag on a rock little Australia demanding an inquiry and insinuating blame was probably not a great foreign policy move.”</p>
<p>On the other hand some Coalition backbenchers have been taking strong public positions against China, complicating the government’s attempt to manage the disputes between the two countries. </p>
<p>In the Lowy poll, 37% said that when the world recovers from the crisis, China will be “more powerful” than it was before the crisis; 27% said it would be less powerful; 36% predicted no change. In 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis 72% said China would be more powerful.</p>
<p>Just over half (53%) say the US will be less powerful; 41% predict no change; 6% believe American power will grow. In 2009 33% said the US would be less powerful than before.</p>
<iframe title="China's system of government" aria-label="Stacked Bars" id="datawrapper-chart-lO8gf" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lO8gf/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="186"></iframe>
<p>Lowy’s Natasha Kassam, author of the Lowy report, said: “Despite Beijing’s efforts to shift the focus from its early mismanagement and coverup of the virus, to its apparent success in containment and providing support to struggling countries, Australians appear unconvinced.</p>
<p>"Australians’ views of China during the pandemic track with the previous downturn in sentiment towards China: in 2019, only a third of Australians said they trusted China, and the same number had confidence in China’s leader Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs.</p>
<p>"As much as Australians have expressed disappointment in China’s handling of the outbreak, they are even more concerned by the response of the United States.</p>
<p>"While watching the current tragedy unfold in the United States, the competence and reliability of the United States is looming even larger as a question for Australians,” Kassam said.</p>
<p>In the poll, people gave a big thumbs up to Australian medical authorities and governments. More than nine in ten (92%) said they were confident the chief medical officers were doing a good job responding to the outbreak. The rating for states and territories was 86%, and 82% for the federal government. Confidence in the performance of the World Health Organisation was a much lower 59%.</p>
<p>Australians are not retreating from globalisation as a result of the crisis. Seven in 10 people say globalisation is “mostly good for Australia”. This is consistent with 2019.</p>
<p>Some 53% want “more global co-operation rather than every country putting their own interests first” in a global crisis.</p>
<p>A majority (59%) say they are just as likely to travel overseas as before, when COVID is contained.</p>
<p>Asked their preferred sources of information during the coronavirus outbreak (and allowed to choose up to three), 59% chose the Prime Minister and government officials, 50% government websites, 50% the ABC, 31% newspapers and news websites, 28% commercial, pay TV news and radio, 20% social media, and 5% word-of-mouth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent Lowy COVIDpoll has the Australian public disappointed in America and China’s response to the coronavirus crisisMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1356602020-05-05T14:11:25Z2020-05-05T14:11:25ZHow coronavirus is changing the rules on foreign investment in essential areas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329569/original/file-20200421-82684-1kcjxfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C909%2C540&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The ongoing coronavirus crisis appears to be speeding up the deglobalization process. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.piqsels.com/en/public-domain-photo-zbhlp">(Piqsels)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite the <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/03/16/g7-leaders-statement-on-covid-19/">G20 commitment</a> to keep foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade going during COVID-19, some countries are placing restrictions on incoming investment. </p>
<p>For them, strategic industries like health care are a primary area of concern. How do these measures manifest in practice and why are they being implemented by host countries?</p>
<p>While investment screening measures are not new, the scope of their expansion is. Before the pandemic, <a href="https://www.publicacoes.uniceub.br/rdi/article/view/5365">a study</a> analyzing FDI-screening measures established three justifications for these measures — fear of becoming dependent on a foreign company for the delivery of critical goods and services, a desire to ensure that domestic technology and expertise remain within national borders and the prevention of surveillance or sabotage of essential services. </p>
<p>The pandemic has added new dimensions to these insecurities that will have global ramifications for FDI and trade flows.</p>
<p>In late March 2020, the European Union released <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/GA/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020XC0326(03)">updated guidance</a> for FDI screening, urging member states to support European public security by protecting “companies and critical assets” in health-related industries — including medical products, protective equipment, medical research and biotechnology — from foreign buyout. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330562/original/file-20200426-163122-1rfvzin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Margrethe Vestager is seen in Munich, Germany, in February 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Sven Hoppe/dpa via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Subsequently, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-antitrust-eu/eus-vestager-says-eu-nations-should-buy-stakes-to-block-chinese-takeovers-ft-idUSKCN21U0TI">Margrethe Vestager</a>, the EU competition policy head, suggested that if necessary, countries should consider taking ownership stakes in companies threatened by takeover, particularly by Chinese companies.</p>
<p>Several other countries also took action. Australia announced <a href="https://firb.gov.au/about-firb/news/changes-foreign-investment-framework-0">temporary measures</a> to lower investment review thresholds to zero for all economic sectors as of March 29, 2020.</p>
<p>Similar measures followed in France, which reduced investment screening <a href="https://www.lw.com/thoughtLeadership/foreign-investments-in-france-new-regime-effective-april-1-2020">threshold to 25 per cent,</a> and Spain, which imposed a <a href="https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/03/18/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-3824.pdf">10 per cent threshold</a> on non-European FDI flows and <a href="https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/04/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-4208.pdf">released guidelines</a> to protect public security, order and health. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ad3f84b0-fb75-4588-97e8-4a657ad67883">India</a>, concerned by the prospect of a Chinese takeover of critical companies, also tightened its FDI regulations.</p>
<h2>Canada tightens FDI rules</h2>
<p>On April 18, 2020, Canadian policy-makers released a similar <a href="https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/ica-lic.nsf/eng/lk81224.html">policy statement</a> on COVID-19 and FDI. The federal government tightened FDI review for corporations in public health and those involved in the supply chains of critical goods and services. It also lowered the threshold for review of FDI made by foreign state-owned enterprises to zero. </p>
<p>This aligns with Canada’s commitment to the protection of critical infrastructure, including “services essential to the health, safety, security or economic well-being of Canadians,” under the <a href="https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/ica-lic.nsf/eng/home">Investment Canada Act</a>.</p>
<p>Although FDI screening in the United States does not appear to have changed due to COVID-19, prior to the pandemic, <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/sites/default/files/2018-08/The-Foreign-Investment-Risk-Review-Modernization-Act-of-2018-FIRRMA_0.pdf">the country had already enhanced the protection of critical technologies from FDI</a>, including items related to <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2012-title15-vol2/pdf/CFR-2012-title15-vol2-part774-appNo-.pdf">health care</a> and <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/FR-2018-22182_1786904.pdf">biotechnology</a>. <a href="https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2020/04/covid19-early-effects-on-foreign-investment">But legal experts</a> predict that COVID-19 may lead to more stringent reviews of health-care-related investment by the country’s Committee on Foreign Investment.</p>
<p>A trend towards increasing stringency of FDI screening mechanisms is afoot, with increasingly severe restrictions on investment in strategic industries. Health care is probably just one of them. </p>
<p>At the same time, the economic consequences of the pandemic may create the conditions for successful <a href="https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/alerts/2020/april/9/strategies-for-canadian-public-companies-in-a-covid19-volatile-marketplace">hostile bids</a> for undervalued technology companies. </p>
<h2>Concerns about state-owned Chinese firms</h2>
<p>This concern has mostly been expressed with respect to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/china-is-bargain-hunting-and-western-security-is-at-risk/">Chinese firms</a> — in particular, those that are state-owned. While the fear is not new (for example in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538960903083467">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09557571.2019.1642849">Canada</a> and <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/FINSA.pdf">the U.S.</a>), the EU is thinking about adopting <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e14f24c7-e47a-4c22-8cf3-f629da62b0a7">additional measures</a> to screen investment by state-owned enterprises.</p>
<p>More worrisome is the rise in political attempts to interfere with free trade in essential goods. One example is the ultimately unsuccessful attempt by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to block the flow of protective masks <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada/canada-blasts-us-block-on-3m-exports-of-masks-as-coronavirus-cases-set-to-soar-idUSKBN21L2DD">made by 3M to Canada</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330566/original/file-20200426-163126-1u1imiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this March 2020 photo, Deborah Birx holds a 3M N95 mask as she and Vice-President Mike Pence visit 3M headquarters in Maplewood, Minn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lastly, changes are likely in the locations of supply chains of strategic industries as more countries seek to bring corporate activities back to domestic soil. This is illustrated by <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2020/02/29/covid-19-is-teaching-hard-lessons-about-china-only-supply-chains">anxiety in the U.S. and EU about their dependence on drugs manufactured in China during COVID-19</a>. </p>
<p>Governments may also offer firms incentive packages to diversify supply chains away from China, as is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/japan-to-fund-firms-to-shift-production-out-of-china">the case in Japan</a>. That means the COVID-19 crisis may hasten the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-makes-u-s-china-economic-breakup-more-likely-u-s-businesses-in-china-say-11587113926?emailToken=e356...">disengagement</a> between the U.S. and China, especially in strategic industries.</p>
<h2>Accelerating deglobalization</h2>
<p>As a result, the current crisis appears to be speeding up the deglobalization process. <a href="https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaepcbinf2020d1_en.pdf">UNCTAD</a>, the main United Nations body dealing with trade, investment and development issues, reports that global FDI flows may fall by 40 per cent in 2020-21, and <a href="https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeinf2020d2_en.pdf">cross-border mergers and acquisitions will continue to decline</a>. </p>
<p>The extent of the decline will depend on the degree to which the restrictive FDI measures become binding and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-makes-u-s-china-economic-breakup-more-likely-u-s-businesses-in-china-say-11587113926?emailToken=e356">supply chains are relocated to home markets</a>.</p>
<p>One consequence is that multinational enterprises will almost certainly experience increasing levels of social and political uncertainty that will require sophisticated <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=5Ko0DwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=corporate+diplomacy+heinsz+book&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiGu5qY8OroAhVDIDQIHbezCJ8Q6AEIMDAB#v=onepage&q=corporate%20diplomacy%20heinsz%20book&f=false">corporate diplomacy</a>. </p>
<p>It’s true that even before COVID-19, there was widespread recognition that large firms should embrace a more <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/01/21/stakeholder-capitalism-arrives-at-davos/">stakeholder-oriented model</a> — one that pays attention to multiple stakeholders, including communities, customers and employees, that are impacted by the activities of particular businesses. </p>
<p>COVID-19 will, in our view, accelerate this trend as the social obligations and political pressures on firms increase.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anastasia Ufimtseva is affiliated with Jack Austin Center for Asia Pacific Business Studies at Simon Fraser University's Beedie School of Business.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Shapiro receives funding from SSHRC</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jing Li receives funding from the Canada Research Chair programs and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>The coronavirus is accelerating the deglobalization process. Here’s why that’s happening and what it means for the post-pandemic future.Anastasia Ufimtseva, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Beedie Business School, Simon Fraser UniversityDaniel Shapiro, Professor of Global Business Strategy, Simon Fraser UniversityJing Li, Associate Professor of International Business, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.