tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/gun-policy-us-23409/articlesGun policy US – The Conversation2023-06-26T12:21:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055532023-06-26T12:21:26Z2023-06-26T12:21:26ZTaking students to the range to learn about gun culture firsthand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530147/original/file-20230605-22195-gqn7mv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3404%2C1798&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Sociology of Guns' students during a gun range field trip.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sandra Stroud Yamane</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Text saying: Uncommon Courses, from The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499014/original/file-20221205-17-kcwec8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/uncommon-courses-130908">Uncommon Courses</a> is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.</em> </p>
<h2>Title of course:</h2>
<p>“Sociology of Guns”</p>
<h2>What prompted the idea for the course?</h2>
<p>I grew up in the liberal culture of the San Francisco Bay Area and never touched a firearm until I was 42 years old, living in North Carolina and <a href="https://sociology.wfu.edu/people/faculty/david-yamane">teaching sociology at Wake Forest University</a>.</p>
<p>For the past 10-plus years I have been deeply immersed in American gun culture both professionally and personally. I have both studied and am a member of the Liberal Gun Club, National Rifle Association and other gun-related groups.</p>
<p>Having one foot outside and one foot inside gun culture allows me to see the social life of guns from different perspectives. Wanting to convey this diversity to others prompted me to construct and teach this course for the first time in 2015. This fall, I will teach the course for the ninth consecutive academic year.</p>
<h2>What does the course explore?</h2>
<p>Rather than focusing exclusively on gun violence and politics, my course looks more broadly at guns in society.</p>
<p>The class begins by literally putting firearms in students’ hands.</p>
<p>The first class meeting is at a gun range, where students have the opportunity – but are not required – to shoot three semi-automatic firearms: a .22 pistol, a Glock 17 9 mm pistol and an AR-15 style .223 caliber rifle. The field trip is a source of insight that carries through the entire semester.</p>
<p>Substantively, the course builds on the students’ firsthand experience of guns by exploring the multifaceted role they play in society. It puts guns in historical, legal and global contexts. The intention is to provide students with a greater understanding of the lawful possession and use of guns, gun crime and injuries, and the future of gun politics.</p>
<p>Guest speakers vary from semester to semester but include leaders of various gun owner groups, professional gun educators and trainers, and representatives of gun violence prevention organizations.</p>
<h2>Why is this course relevant now?</h2>
<p>It often feels as though the United States is being torn apart by cultural and political divisions over guns. As Mark Joslyn argues in “<a href="https://www.choice360.org/choice-pick/the-gun-gap-rotw-4-5-21/">The Gun Gap</a>,” the different social worlds inhabited by gun owners and non-owners shape not just their fundamental orientations to guns, risk and policy, but their very understanding of what constitutes a good society.</p>
<p>I believe that we as a society cannot repair this divide until people begin to talk to each other about their differences with the goal of mutual understanding. These conversations should be built on a solid foundation of empirical knowledge about the role guns actually play in society - both positive and negative.</p>
<h2>What’s a critical lesson from the course?</h2>
<p>The trip to the gun range stands out because it offers direct exposure to gunfire. As expected, <a href="https://guncurious.wordpress.com/2023/06/23/collected-posts-on-sociology-of-guns-seminar/">student responses vary</a>. Most enjoy it. Some dislike it. No one is indifferent. All are better able to relate to the course material because of it.</p>
<p>In particular, those who were personally repulsed by guns prior to the field trip often come to see why guns can be attractive to others. Those who had lacked exposure often become gun curious. And the few gun enthusiasts I get in my course do not just have their enthusiasm reinforced; they also understand why others see guns differently. </p>
<p>Reflecting on the field trip experience over the course of the semester through the lens of scholarship on guns turns the heat of gunfire on the range into the light of comprehension in the classroom.</p>
<h2>What materials does the course feature?</h2>
<p>“<a href="https://lgolens.com/anthropillar/">The Liberal Gun Owners Lens, Pillar 1: The Human-Weapon Relationship</a>” – which explains the deep anthropological connection between <em>Homo sapiens</em> and projectile weaponry. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393345834">Gunfight: The Battle Over the Right to Bear Arms in America_</a>,” – Adam Winkler’s magnificent book on the historical and legal context of guns.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00027162231156292">Gun Culture 2.0: The Evolution and Contours of Defensive Gun Ownership in America</a>” – my comprehensive summary of the history and development of gun culture in the United States.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsa1916744">Handgun Ownership and Suicide in California</a>” and “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0011392115617227">Race and Mass Murder in the United States</a>” – articles that address negative outcomes with guns in society.</p>
<h2>What will the course prepare students to do?</h2>
<p>“Sociology of Guns” teaches students to approach this fraught topic in a more objective and nuanced manner encompassing both the everyday uses and abuses of firearms. This knowledge then helps students better understand their own personal beliefs about and relationship to guns. </p>
<p>Taken together, these lessons prepare students to make informed choices for the rest of their lives about being involved with guns – or not – as well as the place of guns in the communities in which they will live.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Yamane has received funding from The Louisville Institute for the Study of American Religion to study church security. He is a member of the Liberal Gun Club, National African American Gun Association, and National Rifle Association and financially supports the Liberal Gun Owners 501c4 and Walk the Walk America 501c3 organizations.</span></em></p>In this course, a gun range becomes a classroom for students to explore their previously held beliefs about firearms.David Yamane, Professor of Sociology, Wake Forest UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944952022-11-15T13:23:19Z2022-11-15T13:23:19ZGuns on the ballot: How mixed midterm results will affect firearm policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495177/original/file-20221114-15619-a0gj3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C139%2C5491%2C3268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One in 10 American voters listed guns as their top concern.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/many-torn-voting-campaign-buttons-with-handgun-as-royalty-free-image/1334515999?phrase=gun%20vote&adppopup=true">iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. midterm elections took place on the backdrop of <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-is-behind-the-rise-in-gun-related-violence-in-the-u-s">surging gun violence</a> and in a year scarred by high-profile <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/mass-shootings-2022.html">mass shootings</a>.</p>
<p>And though <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/">exit</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/inflation-abortion-lead-list-voter-concerns-nbc-news-exit-poll-finds-rcna56258">polls</a> indicated that abortion rights and inflation were the top motivating issues for voters, views toward guns also played a significant role. Indeed, a survey by Edison Research found that around <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/inflation-abortion-top-issues-us-voters-casting-midterm-ballots-exit-poll-finds-2022-11-08/">1 in 10 voters</a> listed gun policy as their top concern.</p>
<p>That guns were in the mind of many voters should not be too much of a surprise. In 2020, <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/sites/default/files/2022-05/2020-gun-deaths-in-the-us-4-28-2022-b.pdf">there were a record</a> number of gun deaths, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7140a4.htm?s_cid=mm7140a4_w">data for 2021</a> shows a continuing increase. Disparities in gun violence widened – in 2020, the firearm homicide rate for young Black men was <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/sites/default/files/2022-05/2020-gun-deaths-in-the-us-4-28-2022-b.pdf">over 20 times</a> greater than the rate for young white men. The midterms were also the first national vote since the tragic <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/series/uvalde-texas-school-shooting/">mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas</a>; <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/buffalo-reflects-mourns-6-months-after-tops-shooting/">Buffalo, New York;</a> and <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/lake-county-news-sun/ct-lns-victims-memorial-st-1112-20221111-4zpx5bbhujbhxirjbf7f7ly7cy-story.html">Highland Park</a>, Illinois.</p>
<p>The midterm elections offered voters the opportunity to affect gun policy in two ways. First, it gave voters the chance to elect local, state and national officials who will have a say in which gun violence strategies are considered and implemented. And second, in two states – Iowa and Oregon – residents voted on gun rights and gun violence initiatives. The mixed results in these initiatives, in particular, reveal much about the state of gun policy in the United States. </p>
<h2>State ballot initiatives</h2>
<p>In the two states in which guns appeared explicitly on ballots, voters approved measures that moved state gun laws in opposite directions. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/rekha-basu/2022/11/13/iowa-more-lax-on-guns-amendment-vote/69636745007/">Iowa passed a constitutional amendment</a> that enshrined a right to bear arms and specified a standard for judicial review of gun laws, while <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/oregon-measure-114-one-of-strictest-gun-control-measures-in-us-too-close-to-call.html">Oregon voters passed</a> an initiative that requires a permit to buy a firearm and bans large capacity ammunition magazines. </p>
<p>Around <a href="https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/115641/web.307039/#/detail/15500">two-thirds of Iowans</a> voted to add the right to bear arms to the state constitution. This amendment <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/government-politics/iowa-senate-passes-gun-rights-constitutional-amendment/">brings Iowa in line</a> with 44 states that have similar provisions. </p>
<p>Iowa’s amendment differs from most by also setting a strict scrutiny standard for evaluating gun restrictions. Under strict scrutiny, a state law will only be upheld by a court if it is narrowly tailored to further a compelling government interest. Researchers have not studied how these provisions affect gun violence, but this amendment is part of an overall trend in Iowa toward deregulating guns. <a href="https://dps.iowa.gov/hf756-iowas-new-weapon-permit-law">The state began allowing</a> the carrying of concealed handguns without a license and repealed its longstanding law requiring a permit to purchase a handgun. Research has found that both of these changes are associated with <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32816544/">increases in gun</a> <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/study-finds-link-between-dropping-permit-requirement-for-carrying-concealed-weapons-and-increase-in-officer-involved-shootings-with-civilian-victims">violence</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Oregon voters narrowly <a href="https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=MEASURE&map=CTY">approved</a> an initiative adopting a permit-to-purchase law. Under Oregon Measure 114, all would-be gun buyers will be <a href="https://www.opb.org/article/2022/10/18/oregon-measure-114-gun-laws-permits-safety-class-magazine-limits/">required</a> to first acquire a permit from local law enforcement. To acquire a permit, applicants will need to be fingerprinted, pass a background check and undergo safety training.</p>
<p>Research has consistently shown that laws requiring a permit to purchase a gun are <a href="https://doi.org//10.2105/AJPH.2020.305822">associated with reductions</a> in <a href="https://doi.org//10.2105/AJPH.2015.302703">homicide</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26212633/">suicide</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12487">mass shooting incidents</a> and other measures of gun crime.</p>
<p>Despite this evidence, only <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/owner-responsibilities/licensing/">nine other states and Washington, D.C.</a>, have this policy, and Oregon will be the first state to adopt it since <a href="https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/mgawebsite/Legislation/Details/sb0281?ys=2013RS&search=True">Maryland in 2013</a>. In addition, the Oregon initiative institutes a ban on large-capacity magazines – those that hold more than 10 rounds and allow shooters to fire for longer periods before reloading. Bans of these devices have been associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12487">reductions in mass shootings</a>.</p>
<h2>The impact of Supreme Court’s Bruen ruling</h2>
<p>The midterms were the first general elections since the Supreme Court set a new standard for evaluating gun laws under the Second Amendment. Under the <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843">Bruen</a> ruling, which came down in June 2022, courts must assess whether a gun law is consistent with the “historical tradition of firearm regulation” in the U.S. In <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/597/20-843/#tab-opinion-4600259">its opinion</a>, the court failed to provide an adequate framework for lower courts to use for this <a href="https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2022/09/worrying-trends-in-the-lower-courts-after-bruen/">analysis</a>. Despite the lack of clarity, this standard will affect implementation of Iowa’s and Oregon’s new policies.</p>
<p>The fact that Iowa’s constitutional amendment requires analysis of state gun laws under a strict scrutiny standard creates a difficult situation for state judges, who may have to <a href="https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2022/11/2022-midterms-gun-watch/">grapple with both</a> strict scrutiny and the historical tradition test from the Bruen ruling.</p>
<p>Laws requiring a permit to purchase are popular, but they will almost certainly be challenged either in Oregon or in one of the other nine states with such a policy. For the law to be upheld, a court would need to find that such a law was consistent with the country’s history and tradition of firearm regulation. Rigorous historical analyses have proved difficult for courts. </p>
<p>Despite the confusion created by the Supreme Court, the midterm election results indicate that gun violence remains an important issue for voters and elected officials. </p>
<p>At the state and local level, <a href="https://www.thetrace.org/2022/11/midterm-election-gun-reform-candidates/">young candidates</a> who ran campaigns centered on gun violence prevention were elected. Control of some state legislatures and executive branches shifted from one party to the other and, as of this writing, control of the U.S. House of Representatives will come down to several close contests.</p>
<p>The outcomes of these state and local elections will dramatically affect the likelihood that gun violence prevention legislation and programs are considered and implemented in the coming months.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex McCourt receives funding from The Joyce Foundation, The David and Lucille Packard Foundation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Missouri Foundation for Health, and the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research.</span></em></p>Two states had guns directly on the ballot in midterm election initiatives. Voters moved state laws in opposite directions.Alex McCourt, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838802022-05-26T01:17:24Z2022-05-26T01:17:24ZHow the NRA evolved from backing a 1934 ban on machine guns to blocking nearly all firearm restrictions today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465367/original/file-20220525-20-qb3qlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C65%2C3886%2C2323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NRA conventiongoers, like these at the gun group's 2018 big meeting, browse firearms exhibits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-browse-firearms-in-an-exhibit-hall-at-the-nras-news-photo/955072294">Loren Elliott/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The mass shootings at a <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/buffalo-supermarket-shooting">Buffalo, New York, supermarket</a> and an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-texas-shootings-gun-violence-0fc46ce400c3fed9081ee5c033d2aba5">elementary school in Uvalde, Texas</a>, just 10 days apart, are stirring the now-familiar national debate over guns seen after the tragic 2012 and 2018 school shootings in <a href="https://www.npr.org/tags/167321900/sandy-hook-elementary-school">Newtown, Connecticut</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/15/17017342/parkland-florida-school-mass-shooting">Parkland, Florida</a>.</p>
<p>Inevitably, if also understandably, many Americans are blaming the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/19/17027250/march-protests-guns-florida-shooting">National Rifle Association</a> for thwarting <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByoyLoSA8QKpUDU4NU5wQ2dTTlE/view">stronger gun laws</a> that might have prevented these two recent tragedies and many others. And despite the proximity in time and location to the Texas shooting, the NRA is proceeding with its plans to hold its <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/25/politics/national-rifle-association-annual-meeting-what-to-know/index.html">annual convention in Houston</a> on May 27-29, 2022. The featured speakers include former President Donald Trump and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-lawmakers-money-gun-rights-groups">Sen. Ted Cruz</a>, a Texas Republican.</p>
<p>After spending decades researching and writing about <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ztJj-LwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">how and why the NRA came to hold such sway</a> over <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/guns-across-america-9780190228583?cc=us&lang=en">national gun policies</a>, I’ve seen this narrative take unexpected turns in the last few years that raise new questions about the organization’s reputation for invincibility.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People delivered boxes of petitions calling for stronger gun control rules to former Florida Gov. Rick Scott after the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/School-Shooting-Florida/84fa0b8eb9524087bc70cd6ec95e2273/10/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
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<h2>Three phases</h2>
<p>The NRA’s more than 150-year history spans three distinct eras.</p>
<p><a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">At first</a> the group was mainly concerned with marksmanship. It later played a relatively constructive role regarding safety-minded gun ownership restrictions before turning into a rigid politicized force.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ftwny.com/the-nra/">NRA was formed in 1871</a> by two <a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">Civil War veterans</a> from Northern states who had witnessed the typical soldier’s inability to handle guns. </p>
<p>The organization initially leaned on government support, which included subsidies for shooting matches and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">surplus weaponry</a>. These freebies, which lasted until the 1970s, gave gun enthusiasts a powerful incentive to join the NRA.</p>
<p>The NRA played a role in fledgling political efforts to formulate state and national gun policy in the 1920s and 1930s after <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/484215890/prohibition-era-gang-violence-spurred-congress-to-pass-first-gun-law">Prohibition-era liquor trafficking</a> stoked gang warfare. It backed measures like requiring a permit to carry a gun and even a gun purchase waiting period. </p>
<p>And the NRA helped shape the <a href="https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/national-firearms-act">National Firearms Act of 1934</a>, with two of its leaders testifying before Congress at length regarding this landmark legislation. They supported, if grudgingly, its main provisions, such as <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">restricting gangster weapons</a>, which included a national registry for machine guns and sawed-off shotguns and taxing them heavily. But they opposed handgun registration, which was stripped out of the nation’s first significant national gun law.</p>
<p>Decades later, in the legislative battle held in the aftermath of <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">President John F. Kennedy’s assassination</a> and amid rising concerns about crime, the NRA opposed another national registry provision that would have applied to all firearms. Congress ultimately stripped it from the <a href="https://archive.org/stream/GunControlActOf1968PubLaw9061882StatPg1213/Gun_Control_Act_of_1968_Pub_Law_90-618_82_Stat_Pg_1213_djvu.txt">Gun Control Act of 1968</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout this period, however, the NRA remained primarily focused on marksmanship, hunting and other recreational activities, although it did continue to voice opposition to new gun laws, especially to its membership.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NPR’s Ron Elving recounts the NRA’s history.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A sharp right turn</h2>
<p>By the mid-1970s, a dissident group within the NRA believed that the organization was losing the national debate over guns by being too defensive and not political enough. The dispute erupted at the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">NRA’s 1977 annual convention</a>, where the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-teen-killer-who-radicalized-the-nra">dissidents deposed the old guard</a>.</p>
<p>From this point forward, the NRA became ever more political and strident in its defense of so-called “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/02/26/172882077/loaded-words-how-language-shapes-the-gun-debate">gun rights</a>,” which it increasingly defined as nearly absolute under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-2nd-amendment-and-how-does-it-impact-us-gun-control-61068">Second Amendment</a>.</p>
<p>One sign of how much the NRA had changed: The <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=4825&context=lcp">Second Amendment</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1311&context=lawreview">right to bear arms</a> never came up in the 166 pages of congressional testimony regarding the 1934 gun law. Today, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/12/16418524/us-gun-policy-nra">organization treats those words as its mantra</a>, constantly citing them. </p>
<p>And until the mid-1970s, the NRA supported waiting periods for handgun purchases. Since then, however, it has opposed them. It fought vehemently against the ultimately successful enactment of a <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/brady-bill-signed-into-law">five-business-day waiting period and background checks</a> for handgun purchases in 1993.</p>
<p>The NRA’s influence hit a zenith during <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-rights-under-president-george-w-bush-721332">George W. Bush’s gun-friendly presidency</a>, which embraced the group’s positions. Among other things, his administration let the ban on assault weapons expire, and it supported the NRA’s top legislative priority: enactment in 2005 of special liability protections for the gun industry, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People attending the National Rifle Association Leadership Forum in 2017 paid rapt attention to President Donald Trump’s address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-NRA/bfef149b76bb497b95c4b293a347f7fa/60/0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Having a White House ally isn’t everything</h2>
<p>Despite past successes, the NRA has suffered from a series of mostly self-inflicted blows that have precipitated <a href="http://hnn.us/article/172782">an existential crisis</a> for the organization.</p>
<p>Most significantly, an investigation by the <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/judge-blocks-nys-bid-to-shutter-nra-but-lawsuit-continues-2/3580404/">New York Attorney General</a>, filed in 2020, has revealed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/08/nra-is-doomed-it-has-only-itself-blame/">extensive allegations</a> of rampant cronyism, corruption, sweetheart deals and fraud. Partly as a result of these revelations, NRA membership has apparently declined to roughly <a href="https://www.witf.org/2022/02/09/the-national-rifle-association-membership-is-dropping-according-to-internal-documents/">4.5 million</a>, down from a high of <a href="https://www.nraila.org/articles/20170707/%20remarkable-findidue%20dng-from-pew-survey">about 5 million</a>. </p>
<p>Despite this trend, however, the grassroots gun community is no less committed to its agenda of opposition to new gun laws. Indeed, the Pew Research Center’s findings in 2017 suggested that about <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/22/key-takeaways-on-americans-views-of-guns-and-gun-ownership/">14 million people identify with the group</a>. By any measure, that’s a small minority out of nearly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/28/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president/">260 million U.S. voters</a>. </p>
<p>But support for gun rights has become a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2020-2007">litmus test for Republican conservativism</a> and is baked into a major political party’s agenda. This laserlike focus on gun issues continues to enhance the NRA’s influence even when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/financial-woes-are-at-the-heart-of-the-nras-tumult-116146">organization faces turmoil</a>. This means that the protection and advancement of gun rights are propelled by the broader conservative movement, so that the NRA no longer needs to carry the ball by itself. </p>
<p>Like Bush, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/nra-donald-trump-endorsement-backlash-223442">Trump maintained a cozy relationship</a> with the NRA. It was among his 2016 presidential bid’s most enthusiastic backers, contributing <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000082">US$31 million to his presidential campaign</a>. </p>
<p>When Trump directed the Justice Department to draft a rule banning bump stocks, and indicated his belated support for improving background checks for gun purchases after the Parkland shooting, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/trump-pushes-for-tighter-gun-rules-backed-by-nra-after-florida-shooting.html">he was sticking with NRA-approved positions</a>. He also supported <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-defends-arming-teachers-protect-students-sicko-shooter-n850216">arming teachers</a>, another NRA proposal.</p>
<p>Only one sliver of light emerged between the Trump administration and the NRA: his apparent willingness to consider <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-white-house/age-limit-for-buying-ar-15-assault-rifle-on-the-table-white-house-idUSKCN1G42SR">raising the minimum age to buy assault weapons</a> from 18 to 21 – which has not happened. In 2022, a year after Trump left office, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/21/1099912475/states-courts-debate-18-year-olds-buy-long-guns">18-year-olds</a>, including the gunmen allegedly responsible for the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-shooter-bought-gun-legally/">mass shootings in Uvalde</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/17/us/buffalo-mass-shooting-guns-suspect/index.html">Buffalo</a>, were able to legally purchase firearms.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"966681883206668289"}"></div></p>
<p>In politics, victory usually belongs to whoever shows up. And by showing up, the NRA has managed to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/5-years-after-newtown-gun-control-groups-still-looking-big-n829871">strangle every federal effort to restrict guns</a> since the Newtown shooting.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the NRA does not always win. At least 25 states had <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Moms_5Year_Memo_120117A.pdf">enacted their own new gun regulations</a> within five years of that tragedy.</p>
<h2>Supreme Court ruling’s repercussions</h2>
<p>These latest mass shootings may stir gun safety supporters to mobilize public outrage and turn out voters favoring stricter firearm regulations during the 2022 midterm elections.</p>
<p>But there is a wild card: The Supreme Court will soon rule on <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-major-second-amendment-case-before-the-supreme-court-in-over-a-decade-could-topple-gun-restrictions-166703">New York State Rifle & Pistol Club v. Bruen</a>, the most significant case regarding gun rights it has considered in years. It’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-appears-to-suggest-right-to-guns-at-home-extends-to-carrying-them-in-public-too-171263">likely that the court will strike down</a> a long-standing New York pistol permit law, broadening the right to carry guns in public across the United States. </p>
<p>Such a decision could galvanize gun safety supporters while also emboldening gun rights activists – making the debate about guns in America even more tumultuous.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nras-journey-from-marksmanship-to-political-brinkmanship-92160">February 23, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Spitzer is a member of the National Rifle Association and the Giffords organization.</span></em></p>The group, founded in 1871, didn’t try to smother virtually all gun control efforts until the mid-1970s.Robert Spitzer, Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of the Political Science Department, State University of New York CortlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838792022-05-25T20:56:52Z2022-05-25T20:56:52ZAfter mass shootings like Uvalde, national gun control fails – but states often loosen gun laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465365/original/file-20220525-12-c3wncn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A girl cries outside the Willie de Leon Civic Center in Uvalde, Texas, on May 24, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/girl-cries-outside-the-willie-de-leon-civic-center-where-grief-will-picture-id1240884163?s=2048x2048">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Calls <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/05/24/biden-renews-calls-for-congress-to-stand-up-to-gun-lobby-after-texas-school-shooting/">for new gun legislation</a> that previously failed to pass Congress are being raised again after the May 24, 2022, mass shooting at an elementary school in the small town of Uvalde, Texas. </p>
<p>An 18-year-old shooter<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-texas-school-shooting-comments"> killed at least</a> 19 <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/25/1101175912/uvalde-texas-shooting-victims-4th-grade-classroom">fourth grade students</a> and two teachers at Robb Elementary School, marking the deadliest school shooting in the U.S. in a decade. </p>
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<p>The U.S. has been here before – after shootings in Tucson, Aurora, Newtown, Charleston, Roseburg, San Bernardino, Orlando, Las Vegas, Parkland, El Paso, <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2021/03/22/police-active-shooter-shooting-king-soopers-boulder/">Boulder</a>, and 10 days earlier at a grocery store in Buffalo, N.Y. </p>
<p>Gun production and sales in the U.S. remain high, following a <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-and-covid-19-in-2020-a-year-of-colliding-crises/">purchasing surge</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the firearms <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/01/05/us-bought-almost-20-million-guns-last-year---second-highest-year-on-record/?sh=138bc4de13bb">industry sold</a> about six guns for every 100 Americans.</p>
<p>Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut was among the Democratic politicians who pleaded for action on gun control as horrifying details of the Uvalde school shooting unfolded.</p>
<p>“What are we doing?” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/chris-murphy-texas-shooting-sandy-hook.html">Murphy asked</a> other lawmakers, speaking from the Senate floor on the day of the shooting. “Why are you here if not to solve a problem as existential as this?”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-many-gun-control-proposals-have-been-offered-since-2011/">Congress has declined to pass significant new gun legislation after dozens of shootings</a>, including those that occurred during periods like this one, with Democrats controlling the House of Representatives, Senate and presidency.</p>
<p>This response may seem puzzling given that national opinion polls reveal <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/343649/american-public-opinion-gun-violence.aspx">extensive support for several gun control policies</a>, including expanding background checks and banning assault weapons. </p>
<p>In October 2021, 52% of people <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx">polled by Gallup</a> said that they thought firearm sales laws should be made more strict.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">polls do not determine policy</a>. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/strategy/faculty/poliquin">am a professor of strategy at UCLA and have researched gun policy</a>. With my co-authors at Harvard University, I’ve studied <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">how gun laws change following mass shootings</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">Our research</a> on this topic finds there is legislative activity following these tragedies, but it’s at the state level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Democratic senator and Sandy Hook parents and teachers at a press conference in the US Capitol in 2013." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) speaks to the media as teachers, parents and residents from Newtown, Conn. – where the Sandy Hook school massacre happened – listen after a Capitol Hill hearing on Feb. 27, 2013, on the Assault Weapons Ban of 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-richard-blumenthal-speaks-to-the-press-as-newtown-news-photo/162798731?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restrictions loosened</h2>
<p>Stricter gun laws at the national level are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/04/20/amid-a-series-of-mass-shootings-in-the-u-s-gun-policy-remains-deeply-divisive/">more popular among Democrats than Republicans</a>, and major new legislation would likely need votes from at least 10 Republican senators. Many of these senators represent constituencies opposed to gun control. </p>
<p>Despite national polls showing majority <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/09/13/key-facts-about-americans-and-guns/">support for an assault weapons ban</a>, <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/hardware-ammunition/assault-weapons/">not one</a> of <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx#">the 30 states with a Republican-controlled legislature</a> has such a policy. </p>
<p>U.S. Texas Senator Ted Cruz <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-uvalde-texas-school-shooting-sot-nr-intl-vpx.cnn">said on May 24</a> that more gun control laws could not have prevented the Uvalde attack, explaining “that doesn’t work, it’s not effective, it doesn’t prevent crime.”</p>
<p>The absence of strict control policies in Republican-controlled states shows that senators crossing party lines to support gun control would be out of step with the views of voters whose support they need to win elections. </p>
<p>But a lack of action from Congress doesn’t mean gun laws are stagnant after mass shootings. </p>
<p>To examine how policy changes, we assembled data on shootings and gun legislation in the 50 states between 1990 and 2014. Overall, we identified more than 20,000 firearm bills and nearly 3,200 enacted laws. Some of these loosened gun restrictions, others tightened them, and still others did neither or both – that is, tightened in some dimensions but loosened in others. </p>
<p>We then compared gun laws before and after mass shootings in states where mass shootings occurred, relative to all other states.</p>
<p>Contrary to the view that nothing changes, state legislatures consider 15% more firearm bills the year after a mass shooting. Deadlier shootings – which receive more media attention – have larger effects. </p>
<p>In fact, mass shootings have a greater influence on lawmakers than other homicides, even though <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44126/5#page=12">they account for less than 1% of gun deaths in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>As impressive as this 15% increase in gun bills may sound, gun legislation can reduce gun violence only if it becomes law. And when it comes to enacting these bills into law, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our research</a> found that mass shootings do not regularly cause lawmakers to tighten gun restrictions. </p>
<p>In fact, we found the opposite. Republican state legislatures pass significantly more gun laws that loosen restrictions on firearms after mass shootings.</p>
<p>In 2021, Texas Governor Greg Abbott <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/texas-gun-laws.html">signed a new law</a> that eliminated a requirement for Texans to obtain a license or receive training to carry handguns. <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/03/el-paso-walmart-mass-shooting-legislature/">This came</a> two years after a 2019 mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso.</p>
<p>That’s not to say Democrats never tighten gun laws – there are prominent examples of Democratic-controlled states passing new legislation following mass shootings. </p>
<p>California, for example, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-brown-guns-20160701-snap-story.html">enacted several new gun laws following a 2015 mass shooting in San Bernardino</a>. Our research shows, however, that Democrats don’t tighten gun laws more than usual following mass shootings.</p>
<p>After the Buffalo shooting in early May 2022, <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/Hochul-calls-to-raise-the-age-to-purchase-an-17198169.php">New York Governor Kathy Hochul said</a> that she would work to increase the age for legal gun purchasing from 18 to 21 “at a minimum.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="'Change gun laws or change Congress' reads a sign at a 2018 rally in New York City." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In August 2018, Moms Demand Action hosted a rally at New York City’s Foley Square to call upon Congress to pass gun safety laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moms-demand-action-hosted-a-recess-rally-and-community-news-photo/1229015033?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ideology governs response</h2>
<p>The contrasting response from Democrats and Republicans is indicative of different philosophies regarding the causes of gun violence and the best ways to reduce deaths. </p>
<p>While Democrats tend to view social factors as contributing to violence, Republicans are more likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00894.x">blame the individual shooters</a>. </p>
<p>Cruz, for example,<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-texas-school-shooting-comments"> has said </a>that stopping individuals with criminal records from committing violence could help prevent mass shootings. </p>
<p>Politicians favoring looser restrictions on guns following mass shootings frequently argue that more people carrying guns would allow <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4954192/user-clip-ted-cruz-guns-defense">law-abiding citizens to stop perpetrators</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M16-1574">gun sales often surge after mass shootings</a>, in part because people fear being victimized.</p>
<p>Democrats, in contrast, typically <a href="https://aclanthology.org/N19-1304.pdf">focus more on trying to solve policy</a> and societal problems that contribute to gun violence. </p>
<p>For both sides, mass shootings are an opportunity to propose bills consistent with their ideology.</p>
<p>Since we wrote <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our study</a> of gun legislation following mass shootings, which covered the period through 2014, several additional tragedies have energized the <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org">gun control movement</a> that emerged following the December 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut. These include the May 2022 shooting at the Tops grocery store in Buffalo, as well as the Uvalde school massacre. </p>
<p>While President Joe Biden issued <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-initial-actions-to-address-the-gun-violence-public-health-epidemic/">executive orders</a> in 2021 with the goal of reducing gun violence, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/22/guns-biden-democrats-buffalo/">action in Congress remains elusive</a>. States, meanwhile, have been more active on the issue.</p>
<p>Student activism following the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, did not result in congressional action but led several states to pass <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/08/02/after-parkland-states-pass-50-new-gun-control-laws">new gun control laws</a>. </p>
<p>With more funding and better organization, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-missing-movement-made-gun-control-a-winning-issue-113301">this new movement is better positioned</a> than prior gun control movements to advocate for stricter gun policies following mass shootings. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/25/biden-reaction-uvalde-school-shooting">Public outcry</a> and devastation over the Uvalde shootings will likely provide fuel to this advocacy work.</p>
<p>But with states historically more active than Congress on the issue of guns, both advocates and opponents of new restrictions should look beyond Washington for action on gun policy.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/gun-control-fails-quickly-in-congress-after-each-mass-shooting-but-states-often-act-including-to-loosen-gun-laws-157746">article originally published on March 21, 2021</a>. This article was updated to indicate there were 10 days between the Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas shootings.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Poliquin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After mass shootings, politicians in Washington have failed to pass new gun control legislation, despite public pressure. But laws are being passed at the state level, largely to loosen restrictions.Christopher Poliquin, Assistant Professor of Strategy, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1772092022-02-16T03:29:05Z2022-02-16T03:29:05ZWhy $73 million Sandy Hook settlement is unlikely to unleash a flood of lawsuits against gun-makers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446631/original/file-20220215-17-1ymdwfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sandy Hook families aimed to hold the makers of the guns used in the shooting responsible. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NewtownShootingGunMaker/66813a4ad7e745978cb852efd916ce30/photo?Query=sandy%20hook&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2471&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Families of the victims of the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/15/remington-sandy-hook-settlement/">reached a historic US$73 million settlement</a> with gun-maker Remington Arms. The Feb. 15, 2022, deal marks the first time a firearms manufacturer has settled a lawsuit brought by gun violence victims since Congress granted the industry <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/109/s397/text">sweeping immunity from civil liability</a> in 2005. </p>
<p>Since it was filed in 2015 in Connecticut, the Sandy Hook case <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/08/nyregion/gun-manufacturers-lawsuit.html">has focused media attention</a> on claims that the firearms industry bears some responsibility for the epidemic of gun violence in the U.S. As part of the settlement, Remington agreed to release thousands of pages of internal company documents about its marketing strategy for the semiautomatic rifle used in the massacre. The Sandy Hook families <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/nyregion/sandy-hook-families-settlement.html">hope that these will provide clues</a> as to how manufacturers can reduce the criminal misuse of their weapons. </p>
<p>Prior to the settlement, some media reports suggested the case <a href="https://www.penncapital-star.com/commentary/this-is-how-the-sandy-hook-lawsuit-court-victory-opens-cracks-in-gun-makers-immunity-shield-opinion/">could unleash a flood of litigation</a> or significantly change the landscape of lawsuits against the gun industry. However, as a <a href="https://news.gsu.edu/expert/timothy-d-lytton/">legal scholar</a> who <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/gun_litigation-intro.htm">has studied the history of lawsuits</a> against the gun industry, I believe that’s unlikely. </p>
<p>To see why, we need to first review the federal liability shield protecting gun-makers at the heart of the case. </p>
<h2>An Uncertain Legacy</h2>
<p>That law, known as the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/chapter-105">Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act</a>, grants gun manufacturers immunity from lawsuits that arise out of the criminal misuse of a weapon. </p>
<p>But the Sandy Hook families argued that their lawsuit <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/7903">fell under an exception</a> to this federal immunity. The exception allows gun violence victims to sue a manufacturer who “knowingly violated a state or federal statute applicable to the sale or marketing” of a firearm. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jud.ct.gov/external/supapp/Cases/AROcr/CR331/331CR865.pdf">families claimed</a> that <a href="https://www.remington.com/">Remington Arms</a> “marketed, advertised and promoted the <a href="https://www.sportsmansoutdoorsuperstore.com/products2.cfm/ID/11401/90289/bushmaster-xm15-e2s-5.56mm-patrolmans-carbine">Bushmaster XM15-E2S</a> for civilians to use to carry out offensive, military style combat missions against their perceived enemies.” They said that this marketing was unethical and therefore violated <a href="https://portal.ct.gov/DCP/Trade-Practices-Division/About-the-Connecticut-Unfair-Trade-Practices-Act-CUTPA">Connecticut’s Unfair Trade Practices Act</a>, which they argued is a state statute applicable to the marketing of a firearm. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jud.ct.gov/external/supapp/Cases/AROcr/CR331/331CR865.pdf">Connecticut high court agreed</a> and, importantly, <a href="https://www.jud.ct.gov/external/supapp/Cases/AROcr/CR331/331CR865.pdf">interpreted the term</a> “applicable” broadly. That is, the court said that a relevant statute only had to be “capable of being applied” to gun sales, not that the law needed to be specifically about firearms, as <a href="http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2009/05/11/06-56872.pdf">other courts</a> had held. </p>
<p>It is this interpretation that could potentially prompt a flood of lawsuits across the country. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.nclc.org/images/pdf/udap/analysis-state-summaries.pdf">many states</a> have unfair trade practices laws like Connecticut’s, it seems likely that gun violence victims will bring similar claims elsewhere. Victims are thus likely to allege that a gun manufacturer’s aggressive marketing of combat-style weapons violates a state statute – like an unfair trade practice law – that is applicable to the sale or marketing of a firearm.</p>
<p>However, the U.S. Supreme Court has the last word on the interpretation of federal statutes, and <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/470028-supreme-court-refuses-to-hear-remingtons-appeal-in-lawsuit-from">the justices refused</a> in 2019 to hear Remington’s appeal of the case. Presumably, the Supreme Court wanted to wait until the litigation had run its course in the Connecticut state courts before weighing in.</p>
<p>Now that the case has settled, it will never reach the high court – which means the scope of the exception to federal immunity based on a violation of state unfair trade practices law remains unclear.</p>
<h2>Regulation through litigation</h2>
<p>To many, <a href="https://greensboro.com/next-up-in-court-city-vs-auto-inc-suing-gun-makers-is-as-absurd-as/article_cb8ccc10-edb8-5877-a33e-0fc7d7076881.html">it seems absurd</a> to hold gun-makers liable for marketing a legal product that did precisely what it was designed to do. </p>
<p>Although the Second Amendment undoubtedly imposes restrictions on the civil liability of gun manufacturers, the idea of holding them liable for carelessness is actually not so far-fetched.</p>
<p>The ultimate goal of litigants in lawsuits against the gun industry is to use civil liability to encourage companies to look for ways to make their products less susceptible to criminal misuse and to prevent the diversion of their products into illegal markets. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/21/1018881195/state-attorneys-general-26-billion-opioid-settlement">is essentially the tactic</a> being used by states, local governments, tribes and others suing pharmaceutical companies over their role in America’s opioid epidemic. After two decades of litigation, claimants are winning jury verdicts in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/nyregion/teva-opioid-trial-verdict.html">state courts</a> around the country, and the industry is attempting to negotiate a $26 billion dollar <a href="https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/globalopioidsettlement">global settlement</a> for federal cases.</p>
<p>But while drugmakers aren’t protected from such lawsuits, gun-makers are – thanks to Congress. That means using civil litigation to regulate the gun industry will require either a repeal of the 2005 law, which seems unlikely, or finding a way around it. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>The Sandy Hook settlement leaves unanswered the scope of the federal immunity shield, which thwarted all prior attempts to hold gun manufacturers responsible for the criminal misuse of their weapons. What’s more, Remington’s reasons for agreeing to settle may have more to do with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/business/remington-bankruptcy-guns.html">company’s struggle to reemerge from bankruptcy</a> than a newfound willingness among gun-makers to settle claims. </p>
<p>While the settlement is a notable victory for the families of Sandy Hook’s victims, it’s still unclear if it’s a game changer for gun control advocates. </p>
<p><em>This article incorporates background from articles published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/sandy-hook-lawsuit-is-latest-effort-to-hold-gun-makers-liable-for-mass-shootings-61351">June 21, 2016</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sandy-hook-lawsuit-court-victory-opens-crack-in-gun-maker-immunity-shield-113636">March 25, 2019</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177209/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy D. Lytton has provided expert consulting services to law firms representing gun violence victims.</span></em></p>While it’s a victory for the families of the victims, the settlement leaves a key legal question about the gun industry’s liability shield unanswered.Timothy D. Lytton, Distinguished University Professor & Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581182021-04-01T15:00:11Z2021-04-01T15:00:11ZIn gun debate, both sides have evidence to back them up<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392629/original/file-20210330-17-1tx8t4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4774%2C3032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People who want to restrict guns have a point, but so do people who say those laws make little difference in mass shootings.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/two-men-with-their-firearms-listen-to-speakers-at-a-protest-news-photo/1199532455">George Frey/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Gun control is back in the U.S. political debate, in the wake of mass shootings in California, Boulder and Atlanta. </p>
<p>Democrats see stricter gun control as a step toward addressing the problem. In March 2021, as the House of Representatives passed two gun control bills, Speaker Nancy Pelosi claimed that the “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-shootings-legislation-gun-politics-bills-fbb6872ac0575551e2fc190f3aefbd73">solutions will save lives</a>.”</p>
<p>Many Republicans disagree, arguing as Sen. Ted Cruz has that proposed laws seeking to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/boulder-shootings-colorado-violence-legislation-674b5d19ee0255612fba242e42f9772c">require background checks</a> on all firearms sales and transfers and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/23/us/politics/biden-gun-control.html">ban assault weapons</a> are “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/23/ridiculous-theater-cruzs-pushback-gun-restrictions-epitomizes-its-high-hurdle/">ridiculous theater</a>” that fail to reduce mass shootings.</p>
<p>As two <a href="http://faculty.missouri.edu/%7Eselinj/">political scientists</a> trained in <a href="https://politicalscience.missouri.edu/people/lang">data analysis</a>, we set out to determine whether gun control legislation actually prevents mass shootings. We collected data on all mass shootings that occurred between February 1980 and February 2020. We then examined key information on the perpetrators, weapons used and laws in effect at the time of shooting.</p>
<p>Our research, which is yet to be published in an academic journal, suggests that there is statistical evidence to support both parties’ positions about gun control legislation.</p>
<p>While stricter gun control laws may make mass shootings slightly less common, our research suggests that the rhetoric of both parties may not tell the full story. Rather than federal gun control laws, policies that focus on violence prevention at the community or individual levels may be more effective at preventing mass shooting deaths. </p>
<p><iframe id="5DaZV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5DaZV/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Mass shootings in the past 40 years</h2>
<p>We defined a mass shooting as a single incident in which a perpetrator with no connection to gang activity or organized crime shot and killed three or more people. This is similar to the definition <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43004.pdf">Congress uses</a>.</p>
<p>We found there were 112 of these events between 1980 and 2020; the number of mass shootings each year has increased over time. An overwhelming majority of mass shooters – 87% of them – obtained their firearms legally. Nearly all shooters – 93% – shot their victims in the same state where they obtained their weapons. </p>
<p>These facts suggest that existing gun laws and regulations governing gun purchases and firearms that cross state lines may not be working to reduce mass shootings. Our study did not address whether or how other forms of gun violence might be affected by those laws.</p>
<p>In fact, mass shootings tended to occur in states with stricter regulations. Of the states with the highest per capita rates of mass shootings, many – like Connecticut, Maryland and California – employ background checks and assault weapons bans.</p>
<p>By contrast, 18 states did not have a single mass shooting event over the entire 40-year period. Many of these states – like West Virginia, Wyoming and South Dakota – have high rates of gun ownership and relatively loose gun control laws.</p>
<p>But those data patterns don’t tell the full story of our analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person places an item in a wall of flowers and messages mourning the victims of the Boulder supermarket shooting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392632/original/file-20210330-17-1m97iz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After every mass shooting, there is an outpouring of public grief, like this impromptu memorial wall at the scene of the Boulder supermarket shooting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupermarketShooting/a9ae02898be042c69f78526b48d26622/photo">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The effects of gun laws</h2>
<p>Gun laws <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/methodology/">aren’t the only factors</a> that affect where and when mass shootings occur. The number of police officers per capita, a community’s population density and crime rate, and other demographic characteristics such as unemployment rates and average income can also matter.</p>
<p>We used statistical methods to control for those factors, narrowing our analysis to find out whether various types of gun control laws affected the number of mass shootings or number of mass shooting deaths in each state each year.</p>
<p>Specifically, we examined the effects of four different types of gun control legislation: background checks; assault weapons bans; high-capacity magazine bans; and “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-are-red-flag-laws-and-which-states-have-implemented-them/">extreme risk protection order</a>” or “red flag laws” that let a court determine whether to confiscate the guns of someone deemed a threat to themselves or others.</p>
<p>We found that background check requirements, assault weapons bans and high-capacity magazine bans each reduce the number of mass shootings in the United States – but only by a small amount. For instance, enacting a statewide assault weapons ban decreases the number of mass shootings in the state by one shooting every six years. And none of the four types of gun control legislation correlate with fewer total mass shooting deaths.</p>
<p>And laws that remove an individual’s right to own firearms if that individual poses a risk to the community do not affect the number of mass shooting events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men with guns outside the Pennsylvania state capitol" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392630/original/file-20210330-15-1ah1ax8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some states have annual rallies for gun rights at their state capitols, like this one in Pennsylvania in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakPennsylvaniaGuns/f1006b0baca7415a8dc26ff72282255d/photo">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Beyond gun control</h2>
<p>Our analysis suggests that Americans who want to make mass shootings less frequent and less deadly may want to think beyond gun control legislation. </p>
<p>Statistically, mass shootings tend to occur in large, densely populated states with higher income and education levels per capita. While these states often respond to mass shootings by passing gun control legislation, it may be that alternative avenues are more successful. </p>
<p>For example, we find that increasing the number of police officers per capita decreases the number of mass shootings. </p>
<p>There is a wide variety of policy options designed to prevent mass shootings. The American Psychological Association suggests a <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/info/reports/gun-violence-prevention">comprehensive community approach</a> that works to identify prevention strategies that bring public safety officials, schools, public health systems and faith-based groups together to reduce gun violence. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azRl1dI-Cts">Aaron Stark</a>, who says he was almost a mass shooter, explains that mass shootings can be an act of desperation resulting from frustration, stress and an individual’s perception that they lack power. This is in line with a new <a href="https://apnews.com/article/a592850f54634daea31be69defec841e">U.S. Secret Service report</a> that suggests politicians may need to think beyond the accessibility of guns. <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/other-laws-policies/intervention-strategies/">Violence prevention strategies</a> that focus on interpersonal and community relations may be more effective than gun control legislation. </p>
<h2>Framing the debate</h2>
<p>Many policy options involve value judgments stemming from beliefs about the U.S. Constitution and the power of government to regulate guns.</p>
<p>Among people who think that restricting gun access reduces mass shootings, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/01/09/a-public-opinion-trend-that-matters-priorities-for-gun-policy/">people disagree over whether the country should prioritize</a> the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx">individual freedoms of gun owners</a> or the safety and peace of mind of non-gun owners. These differing views can reflect <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/interpretation/amendment-ii/interps/99">different interpretations</a> of the extent to which the Constitution protects the rights of individuals to keep and bear arms.</p>
<p>States have a role to play, too. Federal gun policy covers the entire nation. But our data indicates that attention to state and local factors can play an important role in preventing mass shootings.</p>
<p>In the end, gun control remains a debate about facts and context, complicated by a disagreement over constitutional values.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Selin has received funding for her research on the executive branch from the Administrative Conference of the United States. In addition, she has received funding for her research on Congress from the Dirksen Congressional Center and the Center for Effective Lawmaking.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zach Lang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stricter gun control laws may make mass shootings slightly less common, but other policies may work better to prevent mass shooting deaths.Zach Lang, Ph.D. Student in Political Science, University of Missouri-ColumbiaJennifer Selin, Kinder Institute Assistant Professor of Constitutional Democracy, University of Missouri-ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922722018-03-15T00:26:03Z2018-03-15T00:26:03ZArticulate US teenagers could finally force action on gun control<p>On Wednesday in the US, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/us/school-walkout.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">thousands of students left their classrooms</a> in a national day of action <a href="https://www.actionnetwork.org/event_campaigns/enough-national-school-walkout">designed to force political change on gun crime</a>. Following the recent shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, this walkout is part of an extraordinary national movement. Young people across the US are doing what countless others have tried and failed to do: using grassroots strategies to take on the powerful gun lobby.</p>
<p>The US has an epidemic of gun crime. Mass shootings <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/oct/02/america-mass-shootings-gun-violence">occur every day</a>, and school shootings have become so common that over <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2018/02/20/how-mass-school-shootings-affect-the-education-of-students-who-survive/?utm_term=.6382da2f25e8">170 schools and some 150,000 students have been affected by school-based gun violence since 1999</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond the psychological trauma such attacks inflict, these shootings have a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.3102/0162373715590683">profound effect on academic success rates</a>.</p>
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<p>And yet, in spite of <a href="http://time.com/5167216/americans-gun-control-support-poll-2018/">the overwhelming majority of Americans who want tighter gun control laws</a>, very little is done to stem the presence of guns in schools, or the ability of Americans to access high-powered weaponry with relative ease.</p>
<h2>Policy inertia and the NRA</h2>
<p>The main reason for this inertia is the extraordinary influence of the <a href="https://home.nra.org/">National Rifle Association</a> (NRA). Since it turned to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-tobacco-gifted-campaigns-of-misdirection-and-misinformation-to-the-gun-lobby-45108">more aggressive lobbying strategy in the 1970s</a>, the NRA has helped <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/nra-guns-second-amendment-106856">redefine the meaning of the 2nd Amendment</a>, bestowed a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/wayne-lapierres-trumpian-base-strategy/553964/">divine blessing on guns</a>, and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/23/politics/nra-political-money-clout/index.html">bent half of Congress to its will</a>.</p>
<p>The NRA succeeds because it has created powerful (<a href="http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/tfcl11&div=7&id=&page=">and mostly false or distorted</a>) narratives to support gun use. It deploys familiar tropes to distract from tragedies. When gun-related tragedy hits, NRA-backed politicians call for “thoughts and prayers”. </p>
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<p>The reality of US gun deaths is set against such pro-gun arguments, and each tragedy widens the stark divide between those <a href="http://www.nrafff.com">who associate guns with freedom</a>, and those who see them as <a href="http://time.com/5198721/capitol-gun-death-protest-shoes/">devices for terror</a>. So, when others call for legislative action, as they did following the massacre at Sandy Hook and other mass shootings, the gun lobby scolds them for <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/274461-norquist-accuses-obama-of-politicizing-sandy-hook-school-shooting">“politicising tragedy”</a>.</p>
<p>But murdered kids are political. Sandy Hook exposed the US to the <a href="https://www.wptv.com/news/news-photo-gallery/sandy-hook-victims-names-list-photos-bios-1#id0">faces of erstwhile happy kindergarteners</a>, their lives snuffed out by a disturbed young man with easy access to guns. It’s an all-too-familiar story for Americans and, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/14/upshot/compare-these-gun-death-rates-the-us-is-in-a-different-world.html">by international comparison, a unique one at that</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the resulting push for change soon turned to despair: <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-pitts-20150903-story.html">many came to believe</a> that if 26 deaths at an elementary school can’t bring Congress to act, nothing can.</p>
<h2>Gun laws and the possibility of change</h2>
<p>The last last major piece of gun control legislation to pass Congress was the <a href="http://legisworks.org/GPO/STATUTE-108-Pg1796.pdf">federal assault weapons ban</a> in 1994. It was specifically designed to reduce the incidence of mass shootings, and targeted the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/what-i-saw-treating-the-victims-from-parkland-should-change-the-debate-on-guns/553937/">enhanced killing power of assault rifles</a>. But, under <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2013/02/did-the-1994-assault-weapons-ban-work/">sustained attack from the gun lobby</a>, the ban expired under its “sunset clause”.</p>
<p>Since then, the one major piece of gun legislation in the US, in spite of the national rise in mass and school shootings, has been an <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-119/pdf/STATUTE-119-Pg2095.pdf">act designed to protect gun manufacturers in 2005</a>.</p>
<p>Now, for the first time in decades, there is a real possibility that some gun controls might be implemented. The NRA, as well as numerous politicians associated with it, are facing significant pressure to act. </p>
<p>Recent news footage showed <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/375835-rubios-approval-rating-near-all-time-low-in-florida-poll">Senator Marco Rubio</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AtOU0dDXv8">NRA’s Dana Loesh</a> publicly sparring with students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High, to a chorus of boos and jeers. Millions witnessed their discomfort.</p>
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<p>This has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43298384">already led to some action by states</a>. Florida is looking to pass age restrictions and waiting periods for gun purchases, and Oregon has imposed gun prohibitions on domestic abusers and those with restraining orders. </p>
<p>Even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/trump-gun-control.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">President Donald Trump</a>, who has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-41479161/what-s-donald-trump-said-about-guns-and-gun-control">been keen to show off his pro-gun credentials in the past</a>, has recognised the public outcry. He has called for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/trump-bump-stocks.html">regulation of bump-stocks</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/27/politics/guns-donald-trump-sarah-sanders-age-limit/index.html">age restrictions</a> (though he is wavering on both).</p>
<h2>The high school advocates</h2>
<p>The reason gun control looks possible right now is largely due to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/us/florida-shooting-parkland-students.html">the students at Marjory Stoneman Douglas</a>. Beyond the pressure they have been applying directly to the NRA and politicians, the students have been busy using advocating on <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/26/17054408/parkland-shooting-activist-teens-gun-control">social media</a>, writing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/opinion/florida-guns-training-trump.html">op-eds</a>, <a href="http://time.com/5169357/gun-control-rally-walkouts-us-capitol/">organising rallies and walkouts</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47C-s0FMXlI">making media appearances</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/23/us-companies-nra-best-western-wyndham">and pressuring companies to drop support for the NRA or pro-gun politicians</a>.</p>
<p>As a result of these efforts, the students are presenting important, emotionally powerful counter-narratives to those of the gun lobby. They are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2018/02/23/4807913.htm">offering examples of successful gun control</a> and pointing out that guns in schools are the problem, not the solution. They are also forming a coalition in opposition to the well-organised <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/does-the-nra-really-have-more-than-45-million-members/2013/02/07/06047c10-7164-11e2-ac36-3d8d9dcaa2e2_blog.html?utm_term=.9c3ba8b65385">2-4 million members</a> of the NRA and affiliated organisations.</p>
<p>Whether these efforts are successful or not will depend largely on whether they are sustained. This is why the gun lobby calls for “hopes and prayers” and to not “politicise tragedy”. These are stalling tactics: if the NRA can wait it out, while at the same time applying pressure to its political allies, nothing gets done.</p>
<p>However, the gun lobby has not faced a political force like this before. While it is inevitable that media attention will eventually wane, the students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas and around the country have access to tools — such as social media — that circumvent traditional outlets. They also have the ability to draw the national spotlight back, especially via their use of rallies and walkouts.</p>
<p>These tactics reinvigorate the Democratic base and ratchet up the pressure on the Republicans, already jittery following a string of shock <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/pa-election-results-paul-ryan-tries-to-calm-gop-after-conor-lamb-win.html">political losses</a>.</p>
<p>If the passion and dedication they have shown so far is sustained, especially as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/us/politics/parkland-gun-control-politics-midterms.html">congressional midterm elections approach</a>, the young people of the US might just be able do what no one has done in decades, and force action on gun control.</p>
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<p><em>This article has been update to correct the statement that the federal assault weapons ban followed the Columbine school shooting.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Rennie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Student activists are presenting important, emotionally powerful counter-narratives to those of the gun lobby. Their success will depend on whether they can sustain these efforts.George Rennie, Lecturer in American Politics and Lobbying Strategies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/932412018-03-13T17:53:28Z2018-03-13T17:53:28ZWhy do gun-makers get special economic protection?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210101/original/file-20180313-30989-4deywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A line of AR-15s are on display at gunmaker Daniel Defense in Georgia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Lisa Marie Pane</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The gun industry is <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/16/hillary-clinton/clinton-gun-industry-wholly-protected-all-lawsuits/">one of very few industries</a> to have congressionally backed <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-repeal-the-gun-industrys-exceptional-legal-immunity-51950">immunity from liabilty</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, it’s been largely shielded from responsibility for the deaths and injuries its products cause, with few exceptions. </p>
<p>How did this happen? And, in the aftermath of another tragic mass shooting, could this protection ever be overturned? </p>
<p>As an expert in constitutional law and product liability, I believe the answer to these questions lies in examining the economic and political clout of the gun industry. </p>
<h2>Gun industry gets a protector</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-firearms-industry-influences-us-gun-culture-in-6-charts-92142">gun industry</a> <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/109/s397/text">acquired its protective shield</a> in 2005 after a <a href="http://www.bradycampaign.org/sites/default/files/city-lawsuits-review.pdf">wave of lawsuits</a> by cities threatened gun companies’ survival.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-repeal-the-gun-industrys-exceptional-legal-immunity-51950">New Orleans became the first government</a> to file a lawsuit against gun manufacturers in 1998. More than 30 other American cities and counties soon followed. </p>
<p>The suits, prompted by the growing epidemic of urban gun violence and patterned after claims brought by states against tobacco companies, initially succeeded by shining a spotlight on the industry. I was one of the lawyers at the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence who helped put these cases together. They uncovered <a href="http://www.bradycampaign.org/resources/smoking-guns">evidence</a> about how gun manufacturers could reduce risks by making changes in the way they design and distribute their products.</p>
<p>But then came the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/109/plaws/publ92/PLAW-109publ92.pdf">Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act</a>, which gave gun-makers a special immunity from legal responsibilities and blocked most of the claims. While Congress has occasionally limited the liability of companies making other products, <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/16/hillary-clinton/clinton-gun-industry-wholly-protected-all-lawsuits/">such as medical devices and small aircraft</a>, the degree of protection given to the gun industry was unusual and didn’t create alternative ways to regulate the industry and compensate those injured, as <a href="https://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/SafetyAvailability/ReportaProblem/VaccineAdverseEvents/QuestionsabouttheVaccineAdverseEventReportingSystemVAERS/default.htm">it did with the makers of childhood vaccines</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210108/original/file-20180313-30989-dkdigw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President Bush sits down to sign the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, which shielded the firearms industry from civil lawsuits brought by victims of gun crimes.</span>
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<h2>Good times for gun-makers</h2>
<p>Now a string of recent mass shootings, from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/12/us/orlando-nightclub-shooting/index.html">Orlando</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/after-the-las-vegas-shooting-massacre-survival-can-be-excruciating/2018/03/10/23fd3998-23aa-11e8-badd-7c9f29a55815_story.html">Las Vegas</a> to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/police-respond-shooting-parkland-florida-high-school-n848101">Parkland</a>, has brought renewed scrutiny to the gun industry’s products and practices. </p>
<p>It comes at a time when the firearms industry has enjoyed remarkable growth. In an unintended and sadly ironic way, the mass shootings actually contribute to the industry’s financial success. </p>
<p>Gun sales are strongly correlated to prospects for gun control and surge whenever it seems more likely that new legal restrictions on guns may be imposed. And this was the case in 2008, when the election of Barack Obama rejuvenated the then-stagnant industry. Fearful that President Obama would take away their guns, many Americans rushed to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/11/barack-obama-may-have-been-at-least-a-9-billion-boon-to-the-gun-industry-so-far/?utm_term=.748e31c9ea4e">stock up</a> on new weaponry. <a href="https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/docs/undefined/firearms-commerce-united-states-annual-statistical-update-2017/download">Production</a> of firearms rose steadily throughout Obama’s first term, even though he did <a href="https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/docs/undefined/firearms-commerce-united-states-annual-statistical-update-2017/download">virtually nothing</a> at that time to advance a gun control agenda.</p>
<p>The massacre at <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/06/07/us/connecticut-shootings-fast-facts/index.html">Sandy Hook Elementary School</a> shortly after Obama won re-election in 2012 drove gun sales to unprecedented levels, with production reaching an all-time high of nearly <a href="https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/docs/undefined/firearms-commerce-united-states-annual-statistical-update-2017/download">11 million</a> in 2013 – yielding more economic clout than ever before. </p>
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<p>The <a href="https://d3aya7xwz8momx.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EconomicImpactofIndustry2017.pdf">industry’s economic impact rose</a> from $19 billion in 2008 to over $51 billion in 2016, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the firearms industry’s trade association. And its impact is felt across the country in both red and blue states and politically important ones, from Texas and California to Florida and Ohio. Some of the nation’s oldest and largest gun companies are still based in the legendary <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2013/04/13/greetings-from-new-england-gun-valley/bnluvQAU7sgWyhe4x8FVgP/story.html">“Gun Valley”</a> region of New England, but there are other manufacturers scattered around the nation. Wholesale distributors and retail dealers operate virtually everywhere. </p>
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<p>The <a href="https://d3aya7xwz8momx.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EconomicImpactofIndustry2017.pdf">number of jobs</a> supported by the industry nearly doubled to about 301,000 in that period, with the largest totals in Texas and California. The taxes paid by the industry have increased even more dramatically.</p>
<h2>The gun lobby’s power</h2>
<p>Gun companies have made it clear they are willing to relocate their operations if the price is right, and state and local governments have thrown <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/fully-loaded-ten-biggest-gun-manufacturers-america/">millions of dollars</a> in subsidies and tax breaks at them in recent years. For example, Remington Arms shifted much of its manufacturing from New York to Alabama a few years ago, drawn by <a href="http://www.al.com/business/index.ssf/2014/02/alabamas_incentive_offer_to_re.html">$68.9 million</a> in government handouts, as well as displeasure with New York’s enactment of tougher gun laws. </p>
<p>And the industry has used this growth in wealth, employment and taxes to exercise its political muscles at the state and national levels. The trade association’s <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/clientsum.php?id=D000054336&year=2017">annual lobbying expenditures</a>, negligible prior to Obama’s election, soared after Sandy Hook to more than $3.3 million in 2017.</p>
<p>Its biggest political influence comes through its customers, who are a <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-nra-an-educational-organization-a-lobby-group-a-nonprofit-a-media-outlet-yes-92806">uniquely potent force</a>. The National Rifle Association <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=D000000082&cycle=2016">spends over 50 percent more</a> on lobbying than the gun industry and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nra-power-lobbying-statistics-gun-control-2017-10">nearly 10 times</a> as much as any gun control group. </p>
<p>And while the industry’s interests are usually aligned with those of the NRA, even when a gun-maker wants to take a softer position on gun policy it’s extremely risky to do so. A case in point came in 2000, when Smith & Wesson tried to ease the burden of the lawsuits against it by agreeing to be more careful in how it designed and distributed its products as part of a <a href="https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/textonly/WH/New/html/20000317_2.html">settlement agreement</a>. Its modest steps prompted <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/02/27/a-gunmaker-once-tried-to-reform-itself-the-nra-nearly-destroyed-it/">boycotts</a> by gun owners that nearly destroyed the company in a few short months.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210104/original/file-20180313-30954-16npywb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smith & Wesson nearly went bankrupt after modest steps to make its guns safer sparked a backlash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning the tables</h2>
<p>The question now is, can the increasing frequency of tragedies like Parkland and the resulting raw youth outrage turn the tables on the gun industry?</p>
<p>Applying financial pressure is one way to get the industry’s attention. Several years ago, a coalition of organizations began a <a href="http://www.adweek.com/creativity/powerful-anti-violence-film-wants-you-unload-gun-companies-your-401k-157492/">divestment campaign</a>, encouraging people to move their savings out of mutual funds that invest in gun companies. Fund managers say the campaign is having its intended effect, with <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/28/17058342/wall-street-gun-stocks-divestment">more investors</a> demanding that funds dump gun stocks. According to one study, the amount of assets precluded from being invested in companies that make weaponry for military or civilian use has increased [1,042 percent] since Sandy Hook. This campaign is <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/dan-morain/article200813194.html">cited as a factor</a> that led to the bankruptcy of Remington, the maker of the AR-15 rifle used in that shooting. </p>
<p>The idea has recently gained <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/28/17058342/wall-street-gun-stocks-divestment">new momentum</a>. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-new-jersey/new-jersey-democrats-seek-to-bar-gunmakers-from-pension-funds-idUSKCN1G62B6">Legislators in New Jersey</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/teacher-retirement-funds-in-12-states-hold-gun-company-stocks">teachers in Florida</a> are now calling for public employee pension funds to sell their shares of firearms companies. Other socially conscious investors are keeping their shares and using them as a channel to express concern. Shareholders of companies that make or sell firearms, like Sturm Ruger & Co. and Dick’s Sporting Goods, have <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/guns-and-more-guns-will-wall-street-ever-let-go-of-firearms">called</a> for gun-makers to explain what they are doing to reduce the risks posed by their products.</p>
<p>Americans <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-nra-boycott-working-so-quickly-92513">fed up with the NRA’s intransigence</a> have also begun putting pressure on a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/nra-boycott-full-list-companies-have-cut-ties-gun-lobby-over-florida-shooting-819050">wide range of businesses</a> to cut ties with the gun rights group.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210105/original/file-20180313-30979-1b7eat6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Connecticut State Police detective holds up a Bushmaster AR-15 rifle, the same make and model of gun used by Adam Lanza in the Sandy Hook school shooting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Jessica Hill</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the future holds</h2>
<p>Preventing some NRA members from <a href="http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2018/02/23/car-rental-companies-nra-discounts/">getting a discount</a> on a car rental or airline flight is obviously not going to bring the gun lobby to its knees or lead to a repeal of the industry’s immunity. But every small step brings attention to the issue and builds the pressure that will eventually change the political calculus for legislators.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.pollingreport.com/guns.htm">large majority</a> of Americans support the enactment of stricter gun laws, but the crucial question will be whether the intensity of their feelings about the issue ever match the passion of those who fiercely favor gun rights.</p>
<p>Change will happen if enough people make it clear that their preference for stronger regulation of firearms is something that affects how they spend their money and how they cast their votes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Allen Rostron was a senior staff attorney at the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence prior to becoming a law professor in 2003.
</span></em></p>The gun industry has been virtually immune from liability for the deaths and injuries caused by its products since 2005. Can this change?Allen Rostron, Associate Dean for Students and William R. Jacques Constitutional Law Scholar and Professor of Law, University of Missouri-Kansas CityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923282018-03-05T11:42:37Z2018-03-05T11:42:37ZWhen can you buy a gun, vote or be sentenced to death? Science suggests US should revise legal age limits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207698/original/file-20180223-108110-1ocl6op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vietnam War protests led to a lower voting age. The Parkland shooting could push similar reevaluations.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-School-Shooting-Florida/7bc83c9e428e469b97d4efd6acea6ac1/1/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Societies have long grappled with where to draw the chronological age boundary between adolescence and adulthood. The United States stands apart from most of the world in that it uses different ages for different rights and responsibilities. We permit people to <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/pubs/hf/pl11028/chapter4.cfm">drive when they are 16</a> (even younger in a few states), but prohibit them from <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/minimum-legal-drinking-age.htm">purchasing alcohol until they are 21</a>. The ages at which adolescents can <a href="https://filmratings.com/Tips">see a risqué movie</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/child-marriage-is-still-legal-in-the-us-88846">choose to marry</a>, enter into contracts, or buy cigarettes generally fall between these two extremes.</p>
<p>Nearly all <a href="http://chartsbin.com/view/545">other countries use one age</a> — <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_majority">almost always, 18</a> — to distinguish between minors and adults for most legal purposes. This one-age-fits-all regime has the advantages of consistency, clarity and fairness. Once you’re an adult, you’re an adult.</p>
<p>Taking an issue-specific approach permits society to align legal responsibilities and privileges with people’s abilities and needs. It also allows citizens to change our collective mind about particular boundaries when events dictate rethinking them, as was the case when demonstrations over the Vietnam War draft prompted Congress to <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxvi">lower the voting age from 21 to 18</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/us/stoneman-douglas-shooting.html">Parkland school shooting</a>, in which 17 high school students and staff were killed by a 19-year-old with a semiautomatic assault rifle, may be another one of these transformative events. The massacre has understandably prompted a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/23/politics/congress-obstacles-gun-law-control/index.html">national discussion about gun control</a>, but this is not the only policy debate that this tragedy should stimulate.</p>
<p>Three age-related revisions to the law, in particular, deserve careful consideration in the wake of the shooting: increasing the minimum age for purchasing firearms, lowering the voting age and raising the age of eligibility for capital punishment.</p>
<p>As I outline in my book “<a href="http://www.laurencesteinberg.com/books/age-of-opportunity">Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence</a>,” research on <a href="https://www.nature.com/collections/vbmfnrsssw">adolescent psychological and brain development</a> provides a compelling basis for changing our laws.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207696/original/file-20180223-108139-s1xmi7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers know adolescent brains are still developing, as can be seen during cognitive tasks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nihgov/40268599281">Dr. Richard Watts and ABCD/Univ. of VT P.I. Dr. Hugh Garavan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predictable developmental timetables</h2>
<p>In order to understand how the new science of adolescence can inform this discussion, we need to differentiate between “cold” and “hot” cognition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28099-8_967-1">Cold cognition</a> is invoked in quiet situations, when you’re alone and unhurried. Here the most important skills are those measured by standardized tests of basic intellectual abilities, including attention, memory and logical reasoning.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/brain/awu177">Hot cognition</a> is what kicks in when you are excited, agitated, in groups, or rushed. Under these circumstances, the most important skill is <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/anger-in-the-age-entitlement/201110/self-regulation">self-control</a>, which enables us to regulate our emotions, resist coercion and think before we act. </p>
<p>For the past 20 years, my colleagues and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fpFXX8EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I have been studying</a> the developmental timetables of cold and hot cognition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014763">Our initial research</a> was conducted in the United States, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12532">our most recent study</a> included more than 5,000 people between ages 10 and 30 in 11 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and North and South America. The age trajectories we discovered were the same in our international sample as they were in the United States study.</p>
<p>Our studies show that the abilities necessary to make reasoned decisions are mature by age 16. By this age, adolescents can gather and process information, think logically and draw evidence-based inferences.</p>
<p>Self-regulation does not mature until around age 22, however. Not until this age are people capable of restraining themselves when their emotions are intense, when they are pressured by their peers, or when they feel hurried.</p>
<p>These findings on the development of cold and hot cognition parallel patterns of adolescent brain development. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn3509">Neuroimaging studies show</a> that brain systems necessary for cold cognition are mature by mid-adolescence, whereas those that govern self-control are not fully developed until the early 20s.</p>
<h2>Growing into privileges</h2>
<p>Most people would agree that individuals who have trouble controlling their emotions or thinking through the consequences of their acts should not possess deadly weapons. This, after all, is the rationale behind prohibiting those with serious mental illness from purchasing assault rifles and other firearms. (Even the staunchest defenders of Second Amendment rights, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-bipartisan-members-congress-meeting-school-community-safety/">including President Trump</a>, favor placing restrictions on the sale of guns to the mentally ill.)</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"966662241977360384"}"></div></p>
<p>Adolescence is not a mental illness, but it is a time during which many mentally healthy people have difficulty controlling their impulses and regulating their behavior. Based on the science, I <a href="https://www.flgov.com/2018/02/23/gov-scott-announces-major-action-plan-to-keep-florida-students-safe-following-tragic-parkland-shooting/">agree with Florida’s Republican Gov. Rick Scott</a> that people should not be permitted to purchase firearms until they are at least 21, if not older.</p>
<p>Voting, in contrast, is an act for which cold cognitive abilities are sufficient for competence. An election unfolds over months, which diminishes time pressure and permits people to gather facts and weigh them. Although you might discuss your preferences with others, the act of voting is done alone, and you have as much time as you want to deliberate inside a voting booth.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZxD3o-9H1lY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Marjory Stoneman Douglas student Emma Gonzalez calls out President Trump and the NRA at an anti-gun rally.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is quite clear from post-Parkland events, during which we have witnessed many examples of <a href="https://qz.com/1212712/florida-shooting-stoneman-douglas-student-quotes-after-the-high-school-attack/">wise, articulate and informed young people</a> discussing gun control, that high school students are able to understand and speak knowledgeably about political issues that affect them. There is no reason why people who have the intellectual skills necessary to vote should be prohibited from doing so.</p>
<p>Teenagers may make bad choices, but they won’t make them any more often than adults do. As I noted in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/opinion/sunday/voting-age-school-shootings.html">recent op-ed in The New York Times</a>, I believe the U.S. ought to lower the voting age to 16, as several countries <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8963-2_4">in Europe</a> and <a href="http://chartsbin.com/view/re6">South America</a> have done.</p>
<h2>A question of juvenile responsibility</h2>
<p>Deciding how to sentence the 19-year-old Parkland attacker, Nikolas Cruz, is certain to be controversial. In its 2005 decision in <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/03-633.ZS.html">Roper v. Simmons</a>, the U.S. Supreme Court abolished the juvenile death penalty on the grounds that adolescents are inherently less mature than adults and therefore not deserving of punishments reserved for those who are fully responsible for their crimes.</p>
<p>In 2010 and 2012, in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2009/08-7412">several cases</a> on the constitutionality of <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2011/10-9646">life without parole for juveniles</a> that followed Roper, amicus briefs submitted by scientific organizations <a href="http://www.apa.org/about/offices/ogc/amicus/graham-v-florida-sullivan.pdf">including the American Psychological Association</a> helped persuade the court that its decision in Roper was consistent with research on adolescent brain development.</p>
<p>In the last five years, <a href="http://www.lawneuro.org/files/adol_dev_brief.pdf">neuroscientific evidence has accumulated</a> showing that many of the deficiencies characteristic of the juvenile brain continue to be evident after age 18. It makes sense for courts to consider people to be less than fully responsible for their criminal acts up to the age of 21.</p>
<p>In 2017, I presented this science in <a href="https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/files/pdf/KentuckyAge21DecisionEfrainDiaz.pdf">Commonwealth of Kentucky v. Diaz</a>, a case involving a 20-year-old accused of murder. That court agreed that the logic of Roper should apply to people up to age 21, and that the death penalty could not be considered as a possible sentence for Mr. Diaz. The case is now under appeal.</p>
<p>Nikolas Cruz’s public defenders have <a href="https://www.local10.com/news/parkland-school-shooting/prosecutors-push-back-on-talk-of-plea-deal-for-parkland-gunman">offered prosecutors a guilty plea</a> and their willingness to <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/parkland/florida-school-shooting/fl-school-shooting-nikolas-cruz-grand-jury-20180228-story.html">accept a life sentence</a> in return for the state’s agreement to not pursue the death penalty. To date, the prosecutors have not announced their intentions. Although given the enormity of Cruz’s crime, there will surely be a public outcry pushing for the death penalty, the science is on the defense’s side.</p>
<p>Research on adolescent brain and psychological development can inform debates about where to draw legal lines between minors and adults. Science is not the only consideration when society contemplates changes in the law. But to the extent that people care to align social policies with current understanding of human development, the science of adolescence can help guide the discussion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurence Steinberg receives funding from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Klaus J. Jacobs Foundation.</span></em></p>Teens’ brains develop different skills along a predictable timeline. These milestones should influence the legal age boundaries for voting, buying guns and being put to death.Laurence Steinberg, Professor of Psychology, Temple UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921602018-02-23T23:36:44Z2018-02-23T23:36:44ZThe NRA’s journey from marksmanship to political brinkmanship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207710/original/file-20180223-108116-1kzgb8f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Late actor and former National Rifle Association President Charlton Heston held a rifle aloft at a 2002 get-out-the-vote rally. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Charlton-Heston-Murder-Case-Tossed/77132765c95b4fd9ba0c0b5802508b8c/1/0">AP Photo/Jim Cole</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The mass shooting on Valentine’s Day in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/15/17017342/parkland-florida-school-mass-shooting">Parkland, Florida</a>, ripped at the hearts of Americans in a way perhaps not seen or felt since the Sandy Hook Elementary School bloodshed in <a href="https://www.npr.org/tags/167321900/sandy-hook-elementary-school">Newtown, Connecticut</a> six years earlier.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/how-parkland-students-are-using-social-media-keep-gun-control-n850251">Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School students</a> who witnessed their classmates’ deaths reacted by becoming outspoken gun control advocates. They are blaming the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/19/17027250/march-protests-guns-florida-shooting">National Rifle Association</a> for thwarting <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByoyLoSA8QKpUDU4NU5wQ2dTTlE/view">stronger gun laws</a> that might have prevented this tragedy and many others. Many Americans, <a href="https://wtop.com/dc/2018/02/teens-calling-tighter-gun-control-demonstrate-front-white-house/slide/1/">especially teens</a>, agree with them.</p>
<p>But so far, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/22/politics/wayne-lapierre-cpac-speech-nra/index.html">the largest and oldest U.S. gun group is doubling down</a> on its sweeping opposition to restrictions on gun ownership.</p>
<p>After spending decades researching and writing about <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/robertspitzercortland/books">how and why the NRA came to hold such sway</a> over <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/guns-across-america-9780190228583?cc=us&lang=en&#">national gun policies</a>, I believe it might not be as invincible at this point in its history as the interest group’s reputation suggests.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People delivered boxes of petitions calling for stronger gun control rules to Florida Gov. Rick Scott after the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/School-Shooting-Florida/84fa0b8eb9524087bc70cd6ec95e2273/10/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three phases</h2>
<p>The NRA’s nearly 150-year history spans three distinct eras.</p>
<p><a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">At first</a> the group was mainly concerned with marksmanship. It later played a relatively constructive role regarding safety-minded gun ownership restrictions before turning into a rigid politicized force.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7460CZcGJRY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NPR’s Ron Elving recounts the NRA’s history.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://ftwny.com/the-nra/">NRA was formed in 1871</a> by two <a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">Civil War veterans</a> from Northern states who had witnessed the typical soldier’s inability to handle guns. </p>
<p>The organization initially leaned on government support, including subsidies for shooting matches and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">surplus weaponry</a>. These freebies, which lasted until the 1970s, gave gun enthusiasts a powerful incentive to join the NRA.</p>
<p>The NRA played a role in fledgling political efforts to formulate state and national gun policy in the 1920s and 1930s after the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/484215890/prohibition-era-gang-violence-spurred-congress-to-pass-first-gun-law">Prohibition-era liquor trafficking</a> stoked gang warfare. It backed measures like requiring a permit to carry a gun and even a gun-purchase waiting period. </p>
<p>And the NRA helped shape the <a href="https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/national-firearms-act">National Firearms Act of 1934</a>, with two of its leaders testifying before Congress at length regarding this landmark legislation. They supported its main provisions, such as <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">restricting gangster weapons</a> by creating a national registry for machine guns and sawed-off shotguns and taxing them heavily. But they opposed handgun registration, which didn’t make it into the nation’s first significant national gun law.</p>
<p>The NRA again opposed a national registry provision that would have applied to all firearms, in the legislative battle held in the aftermath of <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">President John F. Kennedy’s assassination</a> and amid rising concerns about crime. Congress ultimately stripped one from the <a href="https://archive.org/stream/GunControlActOf1968PubLaw9061882StatPg1213/Gun_Control_Act_of_1968_Pub_Law_90-618_82_Stat_Pg_1213_djvu.txt">Gun Control Act of 1968</a>. </p>
<p>The NRA remained primarily focused throughout this period, however, on marksmanship, hunting and other recreational activities.</p>
<h2>A sharp right turn</h2>
<p>By the mid-1970s, a dissident group within the NRA believed that the organization was losing the national debate over guns by being too defensive and not political enough. The dispute erupted at the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">NRA’s 1977 annual convention</a>, where the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-teen-killer-who-radicalized-the-nra">dissidents deposed the old guard</a>.</p>
<p>From this point forward, the NRA became ever more political and strident in its defense of so-called “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/02/26/172882077/loaded-words-how-language-shapes-the-gun-debate">gun rights</a>,” which it increasingly defined as nearly absolute under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-2nd-amendment-and-how-does-it-impact-us-gun-control-61068">Second Amendment</a>.</p>
<p>One sign of how much the NRA had changed: The <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=4825&context=lcp">Second Amendment</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1311&context=lawreview">right to bear arms</a> never came up in the 166 pages of congressional testimony regarding the 1934 gun law. Today, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/12/16418524/us-gun-policy-nra">organization treats those words as its mantra</a>, constantly citing them. </p>
<p>And until the mid-1970s, the NRA supported waiting periods for handgun purchases. Since then, however, it has opposed them. It fought vehemently against the ultimately successful enactment of a <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/brady-bill-signed-into-law">five-business-day waiting period and background checks</a> for handgun purchases in 1993.</p>
<p>NRA influence hit a zenith during <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-rights-under-president-george-w-bush-721332">George W. Bush’s gun-friendly presidency</a>, which embraced the group’s positions. Among other things, his administration let the assault-weapon ban expire.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The audience for President Donald Trump’s address to the National Rifle Association Leadership Forum in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-NRA/bfef149b76bb497b95c4b293a347f7fa/60/0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Having a White House ally isn’t everything</h2>
<p>Today, the <a href="https://www.nraila.org/articles/20170707/remarkable-finding-from-pew-survey">NRA claims 5 million dues-paying members</a> and the Pew Research Center’s findings suggest that about <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/22/key-takeaways-on-americans-views-of-guns-and-gun-ownership/">14 million people identify with the group</a>. By any measure it’s a small minority of the <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/15/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/">nearly 250 million U.S. voters</a>.</p>
<p>Like Bush, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/nra-donald-trump-endorsement-backlash-223442">Donald Trump</a> has a cozy relationship with the NRA, which was among his presidential bid’s most enthusiastic backers and contributed <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000082">$31 million to his presidential campaign</a>. </p>
<p>When Trump directed the Justice Department to draft a rule banning bump stocks, and indicated his belated support for improving background checks for gun purchases after the Parkland shooting, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/trump-pushes-for-tighter-gun-rules-backed-by-nra-after-florida-shooting.html">he was sticking with NRA-approved positions</a>. He also supports <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-defends-arming-teachers-protect-students-sicko-shooter-n850216">arming teachers</a>, another NRA proposal.</p>
<p>Only one sliver of light has emerged between the Trump administration and the NRA: his apparent willingness to consider <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-white-house/age-limit-for-buying-ar-15-assault-rifle-on-the-table-white-house-idUSKCN1G42SR">raising the minimum age to buy assault weapons</a> from 18 to 21. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"966681883206668289"}"></div></p>
<p>In politics, victory usually belongs to whoever shows up. And by showing up, the NRA has managed to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/5-years-after-newtown-gun-control-groups-still-looking-big-n829871">strangle every federal effort to restrict guns</a> since the Newtown shooting.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the NRA does not always win. At least 25 states had <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Moms_5Year_Memo_120117A.pdf">enacted their own new gun regulations</a> within five years of that tragedy.</p>
<p>Led by the Parkland shooting’s survivors, students are now commanding public attention with their call for <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=B4102C">tougher gun laws</a>. The key question is whether this momentum will continue through the 2018 midterm elections. If it does, the NRA might have to regroup again.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ob48twC1yf8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Parkland, Florida, teens Emma Gonzalez, Cameron Kasky and Jaclyn Corin talked about the tragedy at their school and their subsequent gun control efforts on Ellen DeGeneres’ TV show.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92160/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Spitzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The group, founded in 1871, didn’t try to smother virtually all gun control efforts until the mid-1970s.Robert Spitzer, Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of the Political Science Department, State University of New York CortlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921632018-02-21T11:46:33Z2018-02-21T11:46:33ZWhy is there so little research on guns in the US? 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207173/original/file-20180220-116351-1ofu4jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=306%2C0%2C3285%2C2048&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A lack of federal funds stymies gun violence researchers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alanenglish/532519876">Alan English CPA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Valentine’s Day, 19-year-old Nikolas Cruz opened fire at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. He <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/us/florida-school-shooting/index.html">killed 17 students and teachers</a> and injured at least a dozen others. The Parkland shooting is currently the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/14/health/parkland-among-deadliest-mass-shootings-trnd/index.html">ninth deadliest</a> single-day mass shooting on U.S. soil.</p>
<p>Like other recent mass shootings, the events in Parkland were quickly followed by a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2018/02/20/after-parkland-massacre-renewed-debate-over-gun-control-puts-spotlight-on-students-public-officials/?utm_term=.ef1e8bd2ca50">public outcry</a> for increased gun control. On Feb. 19, Teens for Gun Reform hosted a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/white-house-protest-teens-gun-control/index.html">lie-in</a>” in front of the White House to demand tougher gun laws. Others gathered in protest outside of the National Rifle Association headquarters on Feb. 16. Speaking at that event, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/outside-nra-headquarters-hundreds-gather-in-vigil-and-protest/2018/02/17/5f59bde4-138e-11e8-9065-e55346f6de81_story.html?utm_term=.f4aba6a6ac1d">Rep. Gerald Connolly</a>, D-Va., argued for an assault weapons ban, universal background checks and closing gun show purchasing loopholes. </p>
<p>Florida legislators are currently <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/02/19/age-limits-and-waiting-periods-for-assault-weapons-florida-legislators-are-considering-it/">drafting a bill</a> that would increase the minimum age for purchasing an assault rifle to 21 and impose a three-day waiting period for purchases. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-application-definition-machinegun-bump-fire-stocks-similar-devices/">President Trump has called for regulations</a> on so-called bump stocks that convert semiautomatic weapons to fully automatic machine guns, as used in the 2017 shooting in Las Vegas. But will these laws prevent another mass shooting? Is there a better policy option?</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the research we need to answer these questions doesn’t exist – and part of the problem is that the federal government largely doesn’t support it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Congresspeople call for action on gun safety legislation on Oct. 4 after the mass shooting in Las Vegas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Las-Vegas-Shooting/1acfe79287294019a8e995009b215e7e/1/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Why do we need research about guns?</h2>
<p>Gun violence is a public health issue. It’s a leading cause of premature death in the United States, killing more people each year than diseases like HIV, hypertension and viral hepatitis.</p>
<p>While <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/21/5-facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/">violent crime has generally been on the decline</a> since the mid-1990s, the latest reports from the FBI suggest <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016">crime rates may be starting to increase</a>. Gun crime has been a persistent problem. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">33,594 individuals</a> were killed by firearms in 2014 alone. That’s only about 200 less than the number of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">people killed in motor vehicle accidents</a>. In 2015, roughly <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/nonfatal.html">85,000 people were injured by firearms</a>, including nearly 10,000 children.</p>
<p>In order to prevent gun injuries and deaths, we need accurate information about how they occur and why. While police reports and <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016">FBI data</a> can provide some detail, they don’t include the thousands of cases that go unreported each year. Between 2006 and 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated that more than a third of victims of crimes involving a firearm <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/vnrp0610.pdf">did not report the crime to police</a>. The <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=245">National Crime Victimization Survey</a>, which collects victimization data from about 90,000 households each year, helps to fill in this gap. However, even this survey has its drawbacks. It doesn’t collect data from youth younger than 12, it doesn’t include murder, and it doesn’t help us fully understand the offender’s motivations and beliefs.</p>
<p>Social scientists like me need more research in order to get the level of detail we need about gun crime. There’s just one major roadblock: The federal government won’t fund it.</p>
<h2>2. How much federal money is there?</h2>
<p>In 1996, Congress passed the <a href="http://www.npr.org/2015/10/09/447098666/ex-rep-dickey-regrets-restrictive-law-on-gun-violence-research">Dickey amendment</a>. The legislation stated that “none of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.” While that wording did not ban CDC gun research outright, the legislation was accompanied by a <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-launched-comprehensive-gun-study-15-years/story?id=39873289">US$2.6 million budget cut</a>. That amount happened to match the amount the CDC had spent on firearms research the previous year. The message was clear. From 1996 to 2013, CDC funding for gun research <a href="http://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2013/02/gun-violence.aspx">dropped by 96 percent</a>. </p>
<p>The CDC wasn’t the only federal agency affected. In 2011, Congress added a similar clause to legislation that regulated funding for the National Institutes of Health. However, due to a <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/nih-quietly-shelves-gun-research-program">directive from the Obama administration</a>, the NIH continued to provide funding for gun research. That push faded as the Obama administration left office.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, the <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/10/03/nih-gun-research-funding-las-vegas-shooting/">NIH discontinued its funding program</a> that specifically focused on firearm violence. While firearms researchers can still apply for funding through more general NIH funding opportunities, critics say that makes <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/nih-quietly-shelves-gun-research-program">funding for gun research less likely</a>.</p>
<h2>3. What prompted these funding restrictions?</h2>
<p>The Dickey amendment was passed after a <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199310073291506">CDC-funded study</a>, led by physician and epidemiologist Arthur Kellerman, found that having a gun in the home increased homicide risk. After the results were published, the National Rifle Association pressured lawmakers, arguing that the CDC was <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-08/congress-has-chance-lift-its-prohibition-cdc-gun-research-it-wont">inappropriately using its funds to advocate for gun control</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NRA spends a lot of money supporting political campaigns, including that of President Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/eaeb2983174147758196b0007ae6deb6/26/0">AP Photo/Mike Stewart</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Opposition from the NRA is serious business for lawmakers. The NRA is one of the most powerful special interest lobbying organizations in the U.S. In 2014 alone, the NRA spent more than <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35261394">$3.3 million</a> on lobbying activities – things like meeting with politicians, drafting model legislation and advertising.</p>
<p>The NRA also spends additional millions to advocate or oppose political candidates. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nra-power-lobbying-statistics-gun-control-2017-10/#while-the-cigarette-pharmaceutical-and-insurance-industries-spend-far-more-the-nra-spends-nearly-10-times-as-much-as-the-biggest-gun-control-lobbying-group-in-the-country-1">In 2016, the NRA spent</a> nearly $20 million on efforts opposing Hillary Clinton and nearly $10 million on efforts supporting Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the NRA has successfully <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/14/inside-the-nra-the-officials-keeping-gun-control-laws-off-the-us-agenda">blocked gun control legislation</a> in the past, including the renewal of the 2004 assault weapons ban.</p>
<h2>4. Can state or private sector dollars fill the gap?</h2>
<p>Another potential option for research is to seek out funding from private agencies or philanthropists. But few of these opportunities are available.</p>
<p>According to Garen Wintemute, director of the <a href="http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp/">Violence Prevention Research Program</a> at the UC Davis Medical Center, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/12/gun_violence_research_nra_and_congress_blocked_gun_control_studies_at_cdc.html">fewer than five private organizations are willing</a> to provide gun research funding.</p>
<p>Private funding is also somewhat risky for researchers. If a funder has a political leaning on gun-related issues, the researcher may be under pressure to produce the “right” results. Even just the implication that a researcher could have a conflict of interest can undermine a study’s results and perceived legitimacy. </p>
<p>State funding may be another option. In 2016, California announced its intent to fund the <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/nation%E2%80%99s-first-state-funded-firearm-violence-research-center-be-established-uc-davis/">University of California Firearm Violence Research Center</a>. This is the first time a state has stepped forward to fund a research center focused on guns. California remains the only state to take this step.</p>
<h2>5. Has gun research stopped?</h2>
<p>The lack of funding has discouraged firearms research. Many researchers are employed within academia. In this publish-or-perish environment, researchers are under pressure to publish their work in academic journals and fund it through sources beyond their home institution. Without outside funding, their research often isn’t possible. Leading firearms researcher Wintemute says “<a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-wintemute-20170714-story.html">no more than a dozen active, experienced investigators</a> in the United States have focused their careers primarily on firearm violence.” </p>
<p>Lack of funding leaves some researchers, like myself, limited to small-scale studies with a low budget. The problem with studies like these is that they are often based on samples that are not nationally representative. That means we can’t generalize from the findings or address all the questions we might have.</p>
<p>Without increased funding for gun research, it will be extremely difficult for researchers to provide accurate answers to the gun policy questions currently under debate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207182/original/file-20180220-116333-l0bgwp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators ‘lie-in’ during a protest in favor of gun control reform in front of the White House, on Feb. 19, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/c789f7eb2b734a78ac7a8f2462d62748/5/0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>6. Does Parkland change the conversation?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/02/20/National-Politics/Polling/release_513.xml?tid=a_mcntx">Washington Post-ABC News poll</a> conducted after the Parkland shooting found that 77 percent of Americans felt that Congress was not doing enough to prevent mass shootings. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar stated that he and those he represents will “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/16/health/gun-violence-government-research/index.html">be proactive on the research initiative</a>” regarding guns. And <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/374149-gop-chairman-congress-should-rethink-cdc-ban-on-gun-violence-research">some elected officials</a> are saying it’s time to get rid of the Dickey amendment. Public pressure and support from those in office may be enough to make more gun research possible.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-so-little-research-on-guns-in-the-us-5-questions-answered-85519">article originally published</a> on Oct. 18, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lacey Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Research is the foundation for evidence-based policies. But because of funding prohibitions, there’s little US research to inform the contentious debate around gun violence and gun control.Lacey Wallace, Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855192017-10-18T23:31:14Z2017-10-18T23:31:14ZWhy is there so little research on guns in the US? 5 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190699/original/file-20171017-30394-1qzmcxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5300%2C3176&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With no money to research guns, there's no evidence to base policy on.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dahlstroms/16344250606">Håkan Dahlström</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/us/las-vegas-shooting-investigation-updates/index.html">Stephen Paddock opened fire</a> Oct. 1 on concertgoers in Las Vegas, killing 59, the city became the unfortunate host of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. Investigators are still trying to piece together the events that took place that evening, and why. </p>
<p>Like other recent mass shootings, the events in Las Vegas were quickly followed by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/angry-democrats-demand-action-guns-after-las-vegas-shooting-n806561">demands for change</a> to gun control policy.</p>
<p>But which policy do we choose? Following the Las Vegas shooting, debate has focused on <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/sen-lankford-congress-address-issue-bump-stocks/">bump stocks</a>, accessories that allow a semiautomatic weapon to fire more rapidly. Will restrictions on them help prevent another mass shooting? Is there a better policy option?</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the research we need to answer these questions doesn’t exist – and part of the problem is that the federal government largely doesn’t support it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190892/original/file-20171018-32355-vll154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Congresspeople call for action on gun safety legislation on Oct. 4.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Las-Vegas-Shooting/1acfe79287294019a8e995009b215e7e/1/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<h2>1. Why do we need research about guns?</h2>
<p>Gun violence is a public health issue. It’s a leading cause of premature death in the United States, killing more people each year than diseases like HIV, hypertension and viral hepatitis.</p>
<p>While <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/21/5-facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/">violent crime has generally been on the decline</a> since the mid-1990s, the latest reports from the FBI suggest <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016">crime rates may be starting to increase</a>. Gun crime has been a persistent problem. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">33,594 individuals</a> were killed by firearms in 2014 alone. That’s only about 200 less than the number of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">people killed in motor vehicle accidents</a>. In 2015, roughly <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/nonfatal.html">85,000 people were injured by firearms</a>, including nearly 10,000 children.</p>
<p>In order to prevent gun injuries and deaths, we need accurate information about how they occur and why. While police reports and <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016">FBI data</a> can provide some detail, they don’t include the thousands of cases that go unreported each year. Between 2006 and 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated that more than a third of victims of crimes involving a firearm <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/vnrp0610.pdf">did not report the crime to police</a>. The <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=245">National Crime Victimization Survey</a>, which collects victimization data from about 90,000 households each year, helps to fill in this gap. However, even this survey has its drawbacks. It doesn’t collect data from youth younger than 12, it doesn’t include murder and it doesn’t help us fully understand the offender’s motivations and beliefs.</p>
<p>Social scientists like me need more research in order to get the level of detail we need about gun crime. There’s just one major roadblock: The federal government won’t fund it.</p>
<h2>2. How much federal money is there?</h2>
<p>In 1996, Congress passed the <a href="http://www.npr.org/2015/10/09/447098666/ex-rep-dickey-regrets-restrictive-law-on-gun-violence-research">Dickey Amendment</a>. The legislation stated that “none of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.” While that wording did not ban CDC gun research outright, the legislation was accompanied by a <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-launched-comprehensive-gun-study-15-years/story?id=39873289">US$2.6 million budget cut</a>. That amount happened to match the amount the CDC had spent on firearms research the previous year. The message was clear. From 1996 to 2013, CDC funding for gun research <a href="http://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2013/02/gun-violence.aspx">dropped by 96 percent</a>. </p>
<p>The CDC wasn’t the only federal agency affected. In 2011, Congress added a similar clause to legislation that regulated funding for the National Institutes of Health. However, due to a <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/nih-quietly-shelves-gun-research-program">directive from the Obama administration</a>, the NIH continued to provide funding for gun research. That push faded as the Obama administration left office.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, the <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/10/03/nih-gun-research-funding-las-vegas-shooting/">NIH discontinued its funding program</a> that specifically focused on firearm violence. While firearms researchers can still apply for funding through more general NIH funding opportunities, critics say that makes <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/nih-quietly-shelves-gun-research-program">funding for gun research less likely</a>.</p>
<h2>3. What prompted these funding restrictions?</h2>
<p>The Dickey Amendment was passed after a <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199310073291506">CDC-funded study</a> led by physician and epidemiologist Arthur Kellerman found that having a gun in the home increased homicide risk. After the results were published, the National Rifle Association pressured lawmakers, arguing that the CDC was <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2015-10-08/congress-has-chance-lift-its-prohibition-cdc-gun-research-it-wont">inappropriately using its funds to advocate for gun control</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190893/original/file-20171018-32378-1gtp7nj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NRA spends a lot of money supporting political campaigns, including that of President Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/eaeb2983174147758196b0007ae6deb6/26/0">AP Photo/Mike Stewart</a></span>
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<p>Opposition from the NRA is serious business for lawmakers. The NRA is one of the most powerful special interest lobbying organizations in the U.S. In 2014 alone, the NRA spent more than <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35261394">$3.3 million</a> on lobbying activities – things like meeting with politicians, drafting model legislation and advertising.</p>
<p>The NRA also spends additional millions to advocate or oppose political candidates. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nra-power-lobbying-statistics-gun-control-2017-10/#while-the-cigarette-pharmaceutical-and-insurance-industries-spend-far-more-the-nra-spends-nearly-10-times-as-much-as-the-biggest-gun-control-lobbying-group-in-the-country-1">In 2016, the NRA spent</a> nearly $20 million on efforts opposing Hillary Clinton and nearly $10 million on efforts supporting Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the NRA has successfully <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/14/inside-the-nra-the-officials-keeping-gun-control-laws-off-the-us-agenda">blocked gun control legislation</a> in the past, including renewal of the 2004 assault weapons ban.</p>
<h2>4. Can state or private sector dollars fill the gap?</h2>
<p>Another potential option for research is to seek out funding from private agencies or philanthropists. But few of these opportunities are available.</p>
<p>According to Garen Wintemute, director of the <a href="http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp/">Violence Prevention Research Program</a> at the University of California, Davis Medical Center, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/12/gun_violence_research_nra_and_congress_blocked_gun_control_studies_at_cdc.html">fewer than five private organizations are willing</a> to provide gun research funding.</p>
<p>Private funding is also somewhat risky for researchers. If a funder has a political leaning on gun-related issues, the researcher may be under pressure to produce the “right” results. Even just the implication that a researcher could have a conflict of interest can undermine a study’s results and perceived legitimacy. </p>
<p>State funding may be another option. In 2016, California announced its intent to fund the <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/nation%E2%80%99s-first-state-funded-firearm-violence-research-center-be-established-uc-davis/">University of California Firearm Violence Research Center</a>. This is the first time a state has stepped forward to fund a research center focused on guns. California remains the only state to take this step.</p>
<h2>5. Has gun research stopped?</h2>
<p>The lack of funding has discouraged firearms research. Many researchers are employed within academia. In this publish-or-perish environment, researchers are under pressure to publish their work in academic journals and fund it through sources beyond their home institution. Without outside funding, their research often isn’t possible. Leading firearms researcher Garen Wintemute says “<a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-wintemute-20170714-story.html">no more than a dozen active, experienced investigators</a> in the United States have focused their careers primarily on firearm violence.” </p>
<p>Lack of funding leaves some researchers, like myself, limited to small-scale studies with a low budget. The problem with studies like these is that they are often based on samples that are not nationally representative. That means we can’t generalize from the findings or address all the questions we might have.</p>
<p>Without increased funding for gun research, it will be extremely difficult for researchers to provide accurate answers to the gun policy questions currently under debate.</p>
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<p><em>This article has been updated with the correct name of the Las Vegas suspect.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lacey Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Horrific mass shootings in the US typically renew the national debate about gun policy. A gun researcher explains the lack of funding for study in this area and what that means for informed policy.Lacey Wallace, Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621482016-07-13T00:56:39Z2016-07-13T00:56:39ZQuantifying the social cost of firearms: a new approach to gun control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130292/original/image-20160712-9274-hku5u7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guns have another kind of price tag.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Young/Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Another week in America, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-shootings-in-dallas-baton-rouge-and-minnesota-are-tragedies-beyond-color/2016/07/08/15701910-4547-11e6-88d0-6adee48be8bc_story.html">another week of sadness and hand-wringing</a> prompted by gun violence. </p>
<p>While the most recent incidents are tinged by race, they also point to a country <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-horrific-predictable-result-of-a-widely-armed-citizenry">awash in guns</a> and the too many deaths that result from their use (or abuse). But are these shootings any more likely to lead to some kind of meaningful action to address the problem?</p>
<p>Unfortunately, probably not. As long as the debate continues to be one of constitutionality (the right to bear arms) and control (regulation), little meaningful change is likely to address the <a href="https://www.atf.gov/about/docs/report/2015-report-firearms-commerce-us/download">16 million new guns entering the U.S. market</a> each year or the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf">nearly 34,000 annual gun deaths</a>. </p>
<p>A new dialogue is desperately needed among policymakers and the public. And it could begin by shifting our focus away from the regulation of guns toward understanding (and mitigating) the social costs of firearm fatalities.</p>
<p><a href="http://environment.umn.edu/discovery/nise/publications/">My research</a> examines ways to assess the social, environmental and health effects of new technologies to inform policymakers and companies. Though my focus at the University of Minnesota is on sustainability, similar analyses may also be useful for the political debate over gun control. </p>
<h2>Firearm fatalities</h2>
<p>The current congressional debate focuses on the most violent actors (terrorists or those whose background check may not check out) and the most lethal guns (military-style rifles) – not necessarily the deadliest guns or those creating the greatest risks to society. </p>
<p>Despite the headlines, most guns never kill anyone, and military-style rifles are some of the least frequently used guns in firearm deaths. Each year, fewer than <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm">one firearm-related death</a> occurs in the U.S. for every 10,000 guns in circulation, or 33,636 fatalities for an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/10/05/guns-in-the-united-states-one-for-every-man-woman-and-child-and-then-some/">estimated 357 million guns</a>. And about two-thirds of those deaths <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm">are suicides</a>. </p>
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<p>Gun deaths associated with mass shootings have surged dramatically in recent years, but are still rare compared with other gun violence. In just the first four months of 2016, 70 mass shootings have been reported (more than all of 2015), with 129 victim fatalities, according to <a href="https://library.stanford.edu/projects/mass-shootings-america">Stanford University’s Mass Shootings in America</a>. Adding in Orlando and Dallas, mass shooting deaths in the first half of 2016 equal those of 2015 and are four times the annual average in recent years.</p>
<p>While this is alarming, such deaths represent just a fraction of the number of firearm-related homicides, about 1.6 percent. And military-style rifles were used in just 10 of the 136 mass shootings reported since January 2015.</p>
<p>Any policy to reduce the likelihood of these events should, therefore, reflect the very small probability of a military-style rifle being used in a mass shooting that targets the public – just one in 575,000 (about 50 deaths out of <a href="http://goal.org/newspages/AWB-truth.html">about 29 million rifles</a>).</p>
<p>New regulation would need to be very restrictive. Millions of these guns would have to be removed from circulation to see any measurable effect on public safety, a politically impossible lift. </p>
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<h2>Price tag of saving a life</h2>
<p>A potential reframing of the issue might be to estimate the social cost of gun deaths, establish the burden borne by each weapon and seek policies that reflect it in the market for firearms.</p>
<p>Across many different areas of government, this kind of analysis is applied all the time when examining the benefits and costs of potential policies. When considering food handling or tracking systems, benefits of reducing the risk of illness and premature death are compared with the costs of implementing the policy. Policies to reduce harmful pollution, improve the safety of automobiles or add bicycle lanes to roads are evaluated in similar ways. </p>
<p>To get at a social cost of mortality, measures have been developed to assess how much people are willing to pay for small reductions in their risks of dying. In aggregate, these values are referred to as the “<a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w9487.pdf">value of a statistical life</a>” (VSL). </p>
<p>This is not how much an actual individual life is worth, but it is an estimate of how much, in total, a large group of people would be willing to pay to save one statistical life. For example, if the average response from a sample of 100,000 people indicated a willingness to pay US$100 to reduce their risk of dying by 0.001 percent, than the VSL would be $10,000,000. So, the total economic cost of mortality in a particular year equals the VSL times the number of premature deaths. Similarly, the economic benefit of a mitigating action becomes the same VSL multiplied by the number of lives saved. </p>
<p>That said, different federal agencies use various valuation methods and assumption. <a href="https://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0563-1.pdf/$file/EE-0563-1.pdf">The Environmental Protection Agency’s adjusted VSL</a> for 2013 is $9.4 million, the <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/VSL2015_0.pdf">Department of Transportation</a> set its 2013 base year value at $9.1 million and the <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/cost-estimates-of-foodborne-illnesses/how-to-read-a-worksheet.aspx">Department of Agriculture</a> provides a midpoint estimate of $8.66 million. </p>
<p>From a purely economic perspective, the social costs of gun deaths likely exceed $300 billion annually. This is a staggering number, more than what the federal government <a href="https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid-chip-program-information/by-topics/financing-and-reimbursement/downloads/medicaid-actuarial-report-2013.pdf">spent on Medicaid</a> in the same year. And that’s not including the <a href="http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/nfirates2001.html">more than 80,000 nonfatal firearm injuries</a> each year.</p>
<h2>A gun’s burden</h2>
<p>Identifying guns’ overall mortality risk burden doesn’t exactly help inform legislation targeting certain types of guns used in certain types of homicides. </p>
<p>But, based on the previous analysis of military-style rifles used in mass shootings, these guns (in these situations) are some of the least costly from a VSL perspective. In fact, the social burden of a single military-style rifle is likely to be as little as $15.77 a year (or $455 million for all rifles based on 50 deaths and a $9.1 million VSL).</p>
<p>It is hard to see how this valuation could deter gun sales enough, or support the implementation of a robust screening and background check system, to make a difference. By comparison, handguns – which are implicated in <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_02.pdf">nearly 70 percent</a> of gun-related homicides – bear a disproportionate burden on society of $401 annually per handgun in circulation. </p>
<p>Policies reducing the burden of gun deaths (e.g., by reducing the number of guns or improving their safety) need to be compared against the additional costs of implementing them. These costs could come as regulations, increased taxes/fees or price increases. </p>
<p>In other words, applying a mortality risk valuation to handguns might cost as much every year as the initial cost to the gun owner. In the current climate, any form of tax or fee approaching this valuation would be a political nonstarter.</p>
<h2>A way forward</h2>
<p>So, if this analysis leads to societal burdens that are both so low (the case of rifles) and so high (the case of handguns) that neither are politically viable, one can easily understand the paralysis in Congress. </p>
<p>The automobile insurance market, where risks are pooled across geographies, types of vehicles and driving behavior, may provide some insights and a way forward. </p>
<p>Similar to guns, nearly 250 million personal vehicles (or their drivers) were associated with <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812139">27,507 deaths in 2013</a>. These premature fatalities tally social costs of $250 billion. </p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A closer look at translating a social burden into a liability premium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CDC, FBI</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For illustrative purposes, if we assume that half of these damages are associated with no-fault third parties, the social burden for non-policy-holder deaths might be about $502 per vehicle, on average.</p>
<p>Unlike with guns, a robust system of vehicle registration and mandatory insurance requirements exists in this market. If we also assume that about half of each auto’s liability policy (<a href="http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/auto-insurance">estimated at $519 in 2013</a>) covers bodily injuries (not property), these insurance premiums represent about half of each vehicle’s societal burden.</p>
<p>I’m not suggesting that these premiums are effective deterrents to poor driving or cover all an accident’s damages to society. Rather, incorporating the external costs of mortality risks into the cost of ownership alters the number of cars on the road and how they are used. </p>
<p>Applying this relationship to firearms, an annual social price tag of $140 per gun might go a long way toward mitigating the mortality costs of gun-related homicide. This estimate is a weighted average of different types of guns, ranging from $15/year for rifles to $200/year for handguns. </p>
<p>Nobody likes new taxes or additional fees, and the gun lobby will certainly oppose even the hint of a disincentive on gun ownership. But there may be enough Republican and Democrat lawmakers open to the idea of market-based policies that don’t directly restrict gun access, progressively impose higher costs to more dangerous guns and generate resources to improve the safety and security associated with guns in America.</p>
<h2>Gun reform doesn’t have to be gun control</h2>
<p>This back-of-the-napkin analysis may be crude, but it does highlight the need and potential for shifting current arguments away from regulating guns to mitigating the social costs of gun-related deaths.</p>
<p>The devil is always in the details, and important debates will be needed around the imposition of new taxes, registration fees or mandatory insurance. It is unclear who should be affected (owners, retailers, manufacturers) or how to include all of the estimated 357 million guns in the U.S., not just the registered ones. </p>
<p>Policymakers should even consider the impact of these types of economic mechanisms on equity of gun ownership – maybe gun subsidies would be needed for low-income or first-time gun buyers. Most importantly, policymakers should have much-needed arguments about how to reduce gun deaths. </p>
<p>An $140 annual registration fee, applied only to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/05/gun-sales-hit-new-record-ahead-of-new-obama-gun-restrictions/">23.1 million guns transacted each year</a>, could generate over $3.2 billion in revenues annually. If nothing else, these resources could bolster local police and security budgets, improve access to gun safety training and education, incentivize new technologies that make guns less dangerous and compensate victims’ families.</p>
<p>Anything to break the logjam and actually address the real costs of gun violence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy M. Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The current debate over the right to bear arms versus regulation is at a stalemate, but a new dialogue that focuses on the social burden of firearms might provide a new way forward.Timothy M. Smith, Professor of Sustainable Systems Management & International Business, University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/613512016-06-21T15:39:52Z2016-06-21T15:39:52ZSandy Hook lawsuit is latest effort to hold gun makers liable for mass shootings<p>Last year families of the Sandy Hook shooting <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/sandy-hook-families-file-lawsuit-against-gun-manufacturer-1418651798">filed</a> a potentially precedent-setting lawsuit. They sued the manufacturer of the AR-15 rifle that Adam Lanza used to gun down 20 schoolchildren and their teachers in a small town in Connecticut in 2012.</p>
<p>On June 20, lawyers for the gun manufacturers <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gun-industry-tries-to-have-sandy-hook-lawsuit-thrown-out/">tried to dismiss the suit</a>, arguing that federal law grants them immunity from legal claims arising out of criminal misuse of a weapon. </p>
<p>Although the judge’s decision to allow the case to proceed is not expected for several weeks, the litigation highlights the question of whether the gun industry ought to bear some responsibility for helping stem the <a href="https://theconversation.com/obamas-bold-move-against-guns-proves-the-politics-of-firearms-really-is-changing-52770">epidemic of mass shootings</a> that has been sweeping the country. It’s a question that has surfaced <a href="http://www.law.com/sites/almstaff/2016/06/17/legal-doctrine-gains-traction-in-shooting-cases/?cmp=share_twitter">once more</a> in the immediate aftermath of the tragedy in Orlando.</p>
<p>To many, it seems absurd to hold gun makers liable for marketing a legal product that did precisely what it was designed to do. Although the Second Amendment undoubtedly imposes restrictions on the civil liability of gun manufacturers, the idea of holding them liable for carelessness is actually not so far-fetched. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.press.umich.edu/136758/suing_the_gun_industry">My research</a> on the history of lawsuits against the gun industry has revealed legal marketing practices that most would agree are irresponsible. For example, <a href="http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=968120070017099017070093012069089081127015066012065038099102077095067122118102091000019101125033110002058113103117070027080115013010054030001010070077081064097087004037003126005029119083112114118003085116087097090125093103017093009114096026026025084&EXT=pdf">some gun manufacturers</a> have sold semiautomatic assault weapons in the form of complete parts kits in order to avoid federally mandated background checks that apply to the sale of firearms but not firearm parts. <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/news/milwaukee/29450349.html">Others</a> continue to supply retail stores that they know sell hundreds of guns traced to crimes every year. </p>
<p>Holding gun makers liable for such negligent practices would discourage them from circumventing background checks and encourage them to police their supply chain to root out rogue dealers. The problem is they enjoy special immunity under federal law. </p>
<p>The Sandy Hook lawsuit, however, seeks to exploit an exception to this law by putting a novel twist on a traditional legal theory.</p>
<h2>Old and new legal theories</h2>
<p>To understand the significance of the Sandy Hook lawsuit, it is helpful to appreciate the history of lawsuits against the gun industry. </p>
<p>Beginning in the 1980s, <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472115103-intro.pdf">gun violence victims filed</a> a handful of successful lawsuits against the retail stores that sold the weapons used to injure them under a traditional legal theory called “negligent entrustment.” </p>
<p>Under this theory, a person is subject to liability when he entrusts a dangerous object to another who poses a high risk of causing injury with the object. The standard example of negligent entrustment is handing a loaded gun to a small child. In one such case, a woman obtained a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/11/us/kmart-held-liable-for-selling-gun-to-drunk-man-who-shot-woman.html">US$12 million verdict</a> from Kmart for selling a firearm to a visibly intoxicated person who subsequently shot her.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, gun violence victims began filing lawsuits against firearms manufacturers under a novel theory called “<a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472115103-intro.pdf">negligent marketing</a>.” These lawsuits alleged that careless marketing and distribution practices by gun makers increased the risk their weapons would be criminally misused. <a href="http://law.justia.com/cases/california/supreme-court/4th/26/465.html">For example</a>, the families of victims in a mass shooting alleged that the manufacturer of a semiautomatic weapon designed for close combat-style assaults should have limited the promotion and sale of this weapon to the military and law enforcement. </p>
<p>Courts around the country <a href="http://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472115103-intro.pdf">ultimately rejected these claims</a>. All but a handful were dismissed prior to trial. Of the <a href="http://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472115103-intro.pdf">few cases</a> in which plaintiffs obtained a favorable jury verdict, all were overturned on appeal. Nevertheless, gun violence victims persisted in their efforts to craft a successful legal theory.</p>
<p>In 2005, Congress stepped in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protection_of_Lawful_Commerce_in_Arms_Act">to put an end</a> to this litigation by passing the <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-109publ92/html/PLAW-109publ92.htm">Protection for Lawful Commerce in Arms Act</a> (PLCAA). Under the PLCAA, no court may hold a seller of a gun – whether a retailer or a manufacturer – liable for an injury arising from the criminal misuse of a weapon.</p>
<p>Congress created a number of exceptions to this grant of immunity. One exception, which is especially relevant to the Sandy Hook lawsuit, allows claims based on the theory of negligent entrustment. </p>
<p>Last October, two Milwaukee police officers were <a href="https://theconversation.com/milwaukee-case-could-encourage-gun-stores-to-reduce-illegal-sales-49277">awarded $5.6 million</a> in a lawsuit against a gun store using this exception. They proved that the clerk who sold the weapon had facilitated an obvious straw purchase. That is, the clerk sold the gun to an eligible buyer who was acquiring it to give to an ineligible person, who subsequently used it to shoot the officers in the face.</p>
<h2>From retailers to manufacturers</h2>
<p>Plaintiffs in the Sandy Hook case are asking the court for the first time to extend the theory of negligent entrustment beyond a retail store to a gun manufacturer. </p>
<p>They argue that the AR-15 is a weapon designed for the military, where soldiers using the gun receive special training and are subject to strict rules regarding appropriate use and safe storage. According to the plaintiffs, facilitating sale of the gun to civilians – who lack the necessary training and rules – is a form of negligent entrustment tantamount to handing the gun to a visibly high-risk individual.</p>
<p>If, as the Sandy Hook plaintiffs argue, marketing the AR-15 to the general public is a form of negligent entrustment, then their claims are not barred by the federal immunity statute.</p>
<p>Lawyers for Bushmaster, which makes the AR-15, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-connecticut-shooting-idUSKCN0Z6165">have countered</a> that the plaintiffs are merely dressing up a novel negligent marketing claim in traditional negligent entrustment language so as to circumvent Congress’ intention to make gun makers immune from civil liability for carelessness in their marketing practices.</p>
<h2>Business as usual?</h2>
<p>The case has attracted national media coverage and, in the process, has drawn attention to the role of gun industry marketing and distribution practices in gun violence. </p>
<p>Currently, gun makers do not believe that they bear any responsibility for the lethality of the weapons they sell or for the actions of those who purchase them. A majority of members of Congress appear to agree. It remains to be seen whether the trial judge in the Sandy Hook case holds a different view. </p>
<p>Those <a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/08/why-bernie-sanders-is-wrong-about-the-sandy-hook-lawsuit/">who applaud</a> the Sandy Hook lawsuit believe that exposing gun manufacturers to civil liability will encourage them to limit the sale of their most powerful weapons to the military and law enforcement. Critics <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/04/13/gun-lawsuits-sandy-hook-newtown-adam-lanza-our-view-editorials-debates/82999006/">denounce such efforts</a> as a misuse of the civil justice system – an attempt to promote <a href="https://theconversation.com/gun-control-in-america-by-the-right-and-wrong-numbers-49573">gun control regulation</a> through private litigation. </p>
<p>The Sandy Hook lawsuit is especially vulnerable to this criticism. Unlike previous attempts to hold gun manufacturers liable for careless marketing practices – such as selling gun kits or supplying weapons to rogue retail dealers – the Sandy Hook plaintiffs’ negligent entrustment theory would require a gun maker to refrain altogether from selling a particular weapon. This looks a lot like a gun ban, which is traditionally the province of legislatures. </p>
<p>By contrast, negligent marketing theories that would allow gun makers to sell legal weapons so long as they avoided loopholes in the background check laws and took reasonable measures to police their supply chains would be less likely to run afoul of the separation of powers. </p>
<p>However, Congress precluded these more measured theories of liability when it granted immunity to gun makers. Any revival of these theories would require the repeal of PLCAA. </p>
<p>If the carnage in Sandy Hook, San Bernardino and Orlando has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/shooting-victims-families-watch-as-gun-measures-stall-once-again.html">not been enough</a> to move Congress in this direction, it is hard to imagine anything that will.</p>
<p><em>This article was corrected to remove a reference to a jury verdict (Maxfield v. Bryco Arms) that didn’t involve negligent marketing or criminal misuse of a weapon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy D. Lytton is a member of the American Bar Association and the American Association for Justice.. </span></em></p>Gun makers are trying to dismiss the potentially precedent-setting suit, claiming a federal law gives them immunity.Timothy D. Lytton, Distinguished University Professor & Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/523452016-01-05T11:08:53Z2016-01-05T11:08:53ZHow dangerous people get their guns<p>The San Bernardino massacre is unique in several respects, but it does bring into focus an important issue with broad relevance: how do dangerous people obtain guns, and what should the police and courts be doing to make those transactions more difficult? </p>
<p>The shooters – Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik – <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/us/weapons-in-san-bernardino-shootings-were-legally-obtained.html">utilized</a> several guns in their attack on Farook’s coworkers during a holiday party in November that killed 14 and injured 22. In addition to two pistols, this husband-wife team had two military-style rifles that were purchased by a friend and neighbor, Enrique Marquez Jr. </p>
<p>It appears that Farook relied on Marquez because he doubted that he could pass the background check that gun dealers are required to conduct on all buyers. Marquez has now been charged with several crimes, including making a “straw purchase” – that is, he <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-911-san-bernardino-massacre-20151218-story.html">swore</a> to the dealer that he was buying the guns for his own use, but in fact he was acting on behalf of Farook. </p>
<p>How does this terrorist attack relate to the more routine gun violence that afflicts many American neighborhoods? Criminal assaults with guns <a href="http://webappa.cdc.gov/cgi-bin/broker.exe">kill</a> 30 Americans every day, and injure another 170. </p>
<p>The guns carried and misused by youths, gang members and active criminals are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">more likely than not</a> obtained by transactions that violate federal or state law. Unlike in the case of Enrique Marquez, it is rare for the people who provide these guns to the eventual shooters to <a href="http://www.phlmetropolis.com/2010/03/the-gun-wars-targeting-straw-buyers.php">face any legal consequences</a>. </p>
<p>How can this illicit market be policed more effectively? </p>
<h2>Undocumented and unregulated transactions</h2>
<p>When asked where and how they acquired their most recent firearm, about 60% of a cross-section of American gun owners <a href="http://news.sanford.duke.edu/news-type/commentary/2013/40-percent-myth">reported</a> buying it from a gun store, where the clerk would have conducted a background check and documented the transfer in a permanent record required by federal law. (The other 40% received it as a gift or acquired it in a private transaction that in most cases was legal.) </p>
<p>But while a majority of owners obtain their guns in transactions that are documented and for the most part legal, the same is not true for criminals. </p>
<p>A transaction can be illegal for several reasons, but of particular interest are transactions that involve disqualified individuals – those banned from purchase or possession due to criminal record, age, adjudicated mental illness, illegal alien status or some other reason. Convicted felons, teenagers and other people who are legally barred from possession would ordinarily be blocked from purchasing a gun from a gun store, because they would fail the background check or lack the permit or license required by some states. </p>
<p>Anyone providing the gun in such transactions would be culpable if they had reason to know that the buyer was disqualified, if they were acting as a straw purchaser or if they violated state regulations pertaining to such private transactions. </p>
<p>The importance of the informal (undocumented) market in supplying criminals is suggested by the results of inmate surveys and data gleaned from guns confiscated by the police. A <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">national survey</a> of inmates of state prisons found that just 10% of youthful (age 18-40) male respondents who admitted to having a gun at the time of their arrest had obtained it from a gun store. The other 90% obtained them through a variety of off-the-book means: for example, as gifts or sharing arrangements with fellow gang members. </p>
<p>Similarly, an ongoing study of how Chicago gang members get their guns has found that only a trivial percentage <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol104/iss4/">obtained</a> them by direct purchase from a store. To the extent that gun dealers are implicated in supplying dangerous people, it is more so by accommodating straw purchasers and traffickers than in selling directly to customers they know to be disqualified. </p>
<h2>The supply chain of guns to crime</h2>
<p>While criminals typically do not buy their guns at a store, all but a tiny fraction of the guns in circulation in the United States are first sold at retail by a gun dealer – including the guns that <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-gun-debate-9780199338986?cc=us&lang=en&">eventually end up</a> in the hands of criminals. </p>
<p>That first retail sale was most likely legal, in that the clerk followed federal and state requirements for documentation, a background check and record-keeping. While there are scofflaw dealers who sometimes make under-the-counter deals, that is by no means the norm. </p>
<p>If a gun ends up in criminal use, it is usually after several more transactions. The <a href="http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol104/iss4/">average age</a> of guns taken from Chicago gangs is over 11 years. </p>
<p>The gun at that point has been diverted from legal commerce. In this respect, the supply chain for guns is similar to the supply chain for other products that have a large legal market but are subject to diversion.</p>
<p>In the case of guns, diversion from licit possession and exchange can occur in a variety of ways: theft, purchase at a gun show by an interstate trafficker, private sales where no questions are asked, straw purchases by girlfriends and so forth. </p>
<p>What appears to be true is that there are few big operators in this domain. The <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02098.x/abstract">typical trafficker</a> or underground broker is not making a living that way, but rather just making a few dollars on the side. The supply chain for guns used in crime bears little relationship to the supply chain for heroin or cocaine and is much more akin to the supply chain for cigarettes and beer that are diverted to underage teenagers. </p>
<p>There have been few attempts to estimate the scope or scale of the underground market, in part because it is not at all clear what types of transactions should be included in that market. But for the sake of having some order-of-magnitude estimate, suppose we just focus on the number of transactions each year that supply the guns actually used in robbery or assault. </p>
<p>There are about 500,000 violent crimes <a href="http://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/gun-violence/pages/welcome.aspx">committed with a gun</a> each year. If the average number of times that an offender commits a robbery or assault with a particular gun is twice, then (assuming patterns of criminal gun use remain constant) the total number of transactions of concern is 250,000 per year. </p>
<p>Actually no one knows the average number of times a specific gun is used by an offender who uses it at least once. If it is more than twice, then there are even fewer relevant transactions. </p>
<p>That <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports">compares</a> with total sales volume by licensed dealers, which is upwards of 20 million per year. </p>
<h2>All in the family</h2>
<p>So how do gang members, violent criminals, underage youths and other dangerous people get their guns?</p>
<p>A consistent answer emerges from the inmate surveys and from ethnographic studies. Whether guns that end up being used in crime are purchased, swapped, borrowed, shared or stolen, the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00917435/79">most likely source</a> is someone known to the offender, an acquaintance or family member. That Farook’s friend and neighbor was the source of two of his guns is quite typical, despite the unique circumstances otherwise. </p>
<p>Also important are “street” sources, such as gang members and drug dealers, which may also entail a prior relationship. Thus, social networks are playing an important role in facilitating transactions, and an individual (such as a gang member) who tends to hang out with people who have guns will find it relatively easy to obtain one. </p>
<p>Effective policing of the underground gun market could help to separate guns from everyday violent crime. Currently it is rare for those who provide guns to offenders to face any legal consequences, and changing that situation will require additional resources directed to a proactive enforcement directed at penetrating the social networks of gun offenders. </p>
<p>Needless to say, that effort is not cheap or easy and requires that both the police and the courts have the necessary authority and give this sort of gun enforcement high priority. </p>
<p>It appears that the extraordinarily intense investigation of the San Bernardino shootings has succeeded in identifying the individual in Farook’s social network who provided him with the assault weapons. The fact that Enrique Marquez is likely to pay a price may help discourage such perverse neighborliness in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Cook receives funding from the University of Chicago, the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, and the National Institute of Justice.</span></em></p>Though the perpetrators of the mass shooting in California appear to have acquired their guns legally, the vast majority used in violent crimes are obtained illegally.Philip Cook, Professor of Public Policy Studies, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/518902015-12-07T04:27:22Z2015-12-07T04:27:22ZNational security experts react to President Obama’s speech on ISIS<h2>President Obama challenges Congress and Muslims</h2>
<p><strong>Peter Dombrowski, Navy War College</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/18/8806751/obama-speech-gun-violence-shootings">Eight times</a>, President Obama has addressed the nation after mass shootings in the United States. Last week’s shooting in San Bernardino and the Fort Hood shooting in 2009 were the only two to involve both domestic killings and Islamist-inspired terror. </p>
<p>At such times, American presidents serve as the national mourner-in-chief, but they also must offer plans to prevent tragedies in the future. </p>
<p>As commander-in-chief, Obama could not simply acknowledge the tragedy in San Bernardino. He had to reassure the nation that he could both end the threat of terrorism and stop gun violence. His resolution was palpable. His faith in own strategy to defeat the Islamic State, or ISIS, is unshaken.</p>
<p>That’s appropriate, because President Obama <a href="http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2015-1e95/survival--global-politics-and-strategy-october-november-2015-3ec2/57-5-11-reich-and-dombrowski-d455">has long offered</a> a clear strategy to combat ISIS. His administration has relentlessly <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/11/19/heres-what-you-need-know-about-our-strategy-defeat-isil">pursued</a> air strikes and coalition building. </p>
<p>He has adjusted tactics when needed – for example, by deploying more special operations force on the ground as circumstances have changed. Nonpartisan analysis, from political scientists such as the University of Chicago’s Robert Pape, suggests <a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/heres-what-a-man-who-studied-every-suicide-attack-in-the-world-says-about-isiss-motives/">it is working</a>, albeit slowly. </p>
<p>Few American politicians share the president’s faith, however. Especially among those most vocal about destroying the Islamic State and ending Jihadist violence in France or California, few accept his leadership or judgment. </p>
<p>While Obama was still speaking Sunday night, Television host and former Republican Representative Joe Scarborough tweeted his skepticism:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"673673668527026177"}"></div></p>
<p>The president’s strategy is not enough for Republican presidential primary candidates like <a href="http://deadline.com/2015/12/donald-trump-live-tweets-obama-speech-1201656072/">Donald Trump</a> or his critics in Congress like Senator <a href="http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=6a770c90-794e-48fa-8020-d9e723ca014f">John McCain</a> (R-AZ). </p>
<p>Sunday the president called out Congress to pass legislation “to make sure no one on a no-fly list is able to buy a gun” and “to make it harder for people to buy powerful assault weapons.” </p>
<p>The president <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/06/heres-what-obama-said-in-his-sunday-night-address-an-annotated-transcript/?postshare=9231449452908864&tid=ss_mail">urged</a> lawmakers not to delay in “put[ing] in place stronger screening for those who come to America without a visa” and “vot[ing] to authorize the continued use of military force against these terrorists.” </p>
<p>Equally important, the president did not give the Muslim community here or abroad a free pass:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“That does not mean denying the fact that an extremist ideology has spread within some Muslim communities. It’s a real problem that Muslims must confront without excuse.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We are now in a race to see whether Congress and non-radicalized Muslims and others will take concrete steps to support the president or simply decry his efforts and shout louder.</p>
<p><em>Peter Dombrowski is a professor of strategy at the Naval War College where he serves as the chair of the Strategic Research Department.</em></p>
<h2>Obama’s speech was more of the same – and not what we needed</h2>
<p><strong>David Alpher, George Mason University</strong></p>
<p>Trying to reassure a frightened and angry nation is never an easy thing. </p>
<p>Trying to balance reason and resolve, the need to build and the need to destroy in the face of an enemy as implacable and pervasive as <a href="https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-versus-daish-or-daesh-the-political-battle-over-naming-50822">Da'esh</a> is even more difficult. </p>
<p>But the strategy President Obama laid out for dealing with the group – while clear and straightforward – has, in my opinion, little to no hope for success. </p>
<p>It was more of the same ideas that the administration has been using since before there <em>was</em> a Da'esh – a set of tactics, mistaken for a strategy, which has largely failed. The speech focused entirely on the destruction of the group, with no mention of a plan for stabilization and reconstruction in Syria, and no plan for addressing the root causes that led to Da'esh’s rise in the first place. </p>
<p>The president <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/06/heres-what-obama-said-in-his-sunday-night-address-an-annotated-transcript/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_obama-8pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory">listed</a> four critical actions as the core of the US strategy.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Obama vowed the US military “will continue to hunt down terrorist plotters in any country where it is necessary.”</p></li>
<li><p>The president said “we will continue to provide training and equipment to tens of thousands of Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting ISIL on the ground so that we take away their safe havens.”</p></li>
<li><p>He said the US and its allies would stop the group’s operations by disrupting plots, cutting off their financing and preventing them from recruiting more fighters.</p></li>
<li><p>Obama said the process of finding a diplomatic solution to the Syrian war had already begun.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Let’s look at each of these separately.</p>
<p>We’ve been hunting, killing and imprisoning terrorists, first in al-Qaeda and then in Da'esh, for 14 years now. Yet the numbers of attacks they carry out, or inspire, just <a href="http://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_GTD_OverviewofTerrorism2014_Aug2015.pdf">keeps increasing worldwide</a>. The past few weeks alone have seen attacks in the US, France, Nigeria, Beirut and the Sinai, and that’s not a complete list.</p>
<p>“Train and equip” programs have a very poor record. The two best examples are the Iraqi army, which <a href="http://time.com/3904741/abadi-iraq-paris/">has folded</a> on contact with Da'esh, and the program to produce an indigenous Syrian resistance – which cost <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/16/us-military-syrian-isis-fighters">US $500 million and produced, apparently, “four or five fighters against ISIS.”</a> </p>
<p>It is of course necessary to “stop ISIL’s operations,” as the president said. But, ironically, the San Bernardino attack that prompted this address seems to have been neither funded by nor directed by the group itself, which calls the president’s logic into question. </p>
<p>Stopping the Syrian war is also, of course, critical. But to date, we have heard of no plan for filling the power vacuum in a wrecked and mistrustful society that would follow the end of war there. Obama offered no such plan on Sunday. Power vacuums tend to lead to the sorts of problems we currently see in <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2015/12/01/sliding-back-into-war-in-iraq-president-obama-apparently-forgot-he-once-opposed-this-conflict/">Iraq</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/06/warplanes-libya-next-battlefront-isis-nato">Libya</a> and <a href="http://www.arabtimesonline.com/news/dont-let-syria-be-a-somalia/">Somalia</a> – hardly a list to emulate. </p>
<p>Throughout the speech were a series of other missed opportunities. </p>
<p>Yes, we can pressure members of congress to vote to reauthorize the <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/107/sjres23">Authorization for the Use of Military Force</a> – but Obama’s claim that we can both authorize force and avoid another long war makes little sense. Some use of force will be necessary, but in absence of a deeper strategy, it offers little hope of success.</p>
<p>Some of the partnerships that Obama called upon in this speech have been <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/10/23/u.s.-arab-counterterrorism-cooperation-in-region-ripe-for-extremism">more a part of the problem than the solution</a>. The intelligence and security cooperation gained through such partnerships does not offset the damage done to long-term efforts by repressive and undemocratic tactics used by those partners. </p>
<p>It was also an error to frame action on terrorism around Da'esh alone. By failing to include the US’ domestic right wing, nativist and Christian extremist groups – groups that gave us <a href="http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2015/12/06/01-clinic-killers.html">Eric Rudolph</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4136457/terrorism-definition/">Timothy McVeigh</a>, <a href="http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/roof_dear_and_tashfeen_malik_the_double_standard_of_self-radicalized_lone_w">Dylann Roof and others</a> – the president focused attention toward Islam alone out of a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/opinion/the-other-terror-threat.html?_r=0">range of growing problems</a>. This flies in the face of his important calls for a more inclusive society, and opens dangerous gaps in the analysis that drives operations. </p>
<p>The strongest parts of the president’s speech were the ones he spent the least time on. We do indeed need stronger gun laws, both domestically and in our <a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-could-halt-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-over-yemen-strikes-271051017">arms sales to other nations involved in this war</a>. We do indeed need to focus on building more inclusive societies and living up to our best ideals. These – not warfighting – are the heart of the strategy we need, and we heard far too little of it tonight. </p>
<p><em>David Alpher has briefed the National Security Council, nongovernmental organizations and a range of offices of the US government on development and security policy in the Middle East.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office Sunday night, attempting to steady fears after a terrorist attack in San Bernardino, California.David Alpher, Adjunct Professor at the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason UniversityPeter Dombrowski, Professor, Strategic Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, US Naval War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.