tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/hurricane-irma-42848/articlesHurricane Irma – The Conversation2022-02-07T13:20:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1736272022-02-07T13:20:00Z2022-02-07T13:20:00ZDisaster news on TV and social media can trigger post-traumatic stress in kids thousands of miles away – here’s why some are more vulnerable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442646/original/file-20220125-21-1pphuhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exposure to videos of disasters can trigger post-traumatic stress symptoms in some children.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girl-using-mobile-phone-royalty-free-image/1276757551">Chokchai Poomichaiya / EyeEm via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When disasters strike, the flood of images on TV and social media can have a powerful psychological impact on children – whether those children are physically in the line of danger or watching from thousands of miles away.</p>
<p>Our latest research uses brain scans to show how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01216-3">simply watching news coverage of disasters</a> can raise childen’s anxiety and trigger responses in their brains that put them at risk of post-traumatic stress symptoms. It also explores why some children are more vulnerable to those effects than others. </p>
<p>This risk is important for parents and media to understand. In just a few months of 2022, news coverage was saturated with images of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/life-threatening-colorado-wildfires-trigger-evacuations-boulder-area-rcna10475">wildfires burning through neighborhoods</a> in Colorado, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/26/tornadoes-mayfield-kentucky-caused-profound-losses">tornado damage</a> across the Midwest, a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/oxford-high-school-shooting-viral-tik-tok-trick-gun-violence-suspect-1654844">school shooting</a> in Michigan and news of <a href="https://www.cbs42.com/news/health/coronavirus/alabama-children-hospitalized-for-covid-19-hits-record-high/">rising illnesses</a> from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>With climate change, researchers estimate that today’s children will face <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339">three times as many climate-related disasters</a> as their grandparents. And the pervasiveness of social media and 24-hour news make exposure to images of disasters more likely.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c-M4lOcAAAAJ&hl=en">neuroscientist</a> and a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dAH8Hi0AAAAJ&hl=en">psychologist</a> who study youth anxiety and the adolescent brain, we have been exploring ways to identify children who are most at risk.</p>
<h2>Harm to some kids’ mental health, but not all</h2>
<p>The Academy of Pediatrics <a href="https://www.aap.org/en/advocacy/child-and-adolescent-healthy-mental-development/aap-aacap-cha-declaration-of-a-national-emergency-in-child-and-adolescent-mental-health/">declared a national emergency</a> in child and adolescent mental health in 2021 as mental health professionals saw <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.2482">rising rates</a> of mental health problems in youth.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021482">Exposure to disasters in particular can trigger</a> post-traumatic stress symptoms, such as loss of sleep, intrusive thoughts about the experience, memory impairments or severe emotional distress. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11920-015-0612-y">But while around 10%</a> of people who are directly exposed to traumatic events develop symptoms that are severe enough to meet diagnostic criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD, a majority do not.</p>
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<img alt="A boy with debris and an overturned car behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=788&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442653/original/file-20220125-15-outql5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=991&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A 12-year-old sat in front of the remnants of a home damaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HURRICANEKATRINAAFTERMATH/ed1e24d441e1da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11920-015-0612-y">Understanding which</a> factors help determine whether disaster exposure will lead to serious mental health problems may help identify children at greatest risk for PTSD, facilitate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/da.21997">early intervention</a> and help develop targeted mental health outreach in the aftermath of disasters.</p>
<p>This also applies to children exposed to disasters and other traumatic events through media.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.62.4.304">once-dominant theory</a> of disaster mental health, sometimes called the “bull’s-eye model,” proposed that the negative mental health effects of a disaster were directly related to how close the person was to the center of the event – the bull’s-eye. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2013-4115">more</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.62.4.304">more studies</a> are finding that the negative mental health effects of disasters extend far beyond the immediate disaster area.</p>
<p>Sensationalized 24-hour news cycles on television and online are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2018.6228">part of the reason</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1316265110">studies suggest</a>. These media are designed to attract viewers and keep them engaged. This is especially true for content on social media, which often contains <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15551393.2011.574060">more graphic images</a> and scenes than typically broadcast by more traditional news sources.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/at_L6ZlAFd0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Continuous news coverage of hurricanes can help residents understand the risks but can also scare children.</span></figcaption>
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<p>So, why are some children vulnerable to these media influences, whereas others are not?</p>
<p>Our research points to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01216-3">preexisting and identifiable neurobiological profiles</a> that can make young people especially susceptible to the harmful mental health effects of disaster-related news coverage.</p>
<h2>Hurricane Irma’s impact – 3,000 miles away</h2>
<p>When Hurricane Irma struck in 2017, we were able to use a <a href="https://abcdstudy.org/">national long-term research project</a> that was already underway to study how children were coping both before and after the disaster. We could look at the types of disaster exposure, and whether any preexisting characteristics could distinguish those children who went on to develop post-traumatic stress symptoms from those who did not.</p>
<p>We were able to more firmly establish whether changes were due to disaster and media exposure, and not something else.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://abcdstudy.org/">Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study</a> followed 11,800 children across the United States over a 10-year period using a variety of brain imaging and mental health assessments. Three of the study sites – two in Florida and one in South Carolina – were hit by <a href="https://www.weather.gov/mfl/hurricaneirma">Hurricane Irma</a>, one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442070/original/file-20220123-19-1vmgryz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>In the week before Irma made landfall, national media coverage provided highly dramatic, around-the-clock forecasting of the impending “<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/hurricane-irma-catastrophic-heres-officials-preparing">catastrophic</a>” storm and its threat of destruction of “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2017/09/10/pence-irma-storm-epic-proportions/105473098/">epic proportions</a>.” Irma led to the largest human evacuation in U.S. history, about <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-florida-tampa-miami-impacts">7 million people</a>.</p>
<p>After the storm, we collected additional data from about 400 of the project’s participants at the three sites affected by Irma and a demographically similar site on the other side of the country, in San Diego. We assessed their exposure to the hurricane and to media coverage ahead of the storm, and the extent to which the child exhibited post-traumatic stress symptoms six to eight months after the storm, when the children were 11 to 13 years old.</p>
<p>We found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01216-3">greater media exposure</a> was associated with higher reporting of post-traumatic stress symptoms – and the link was just as strong in San Diego youth as it was in Florida youth.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437371/original/file-20211213-21-1ii3ep8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In MRI brain scans, the association between media exposure and post-traumatic stress symptoms were strongest for children with a strong response in the amygdala, a brain area involved in processing fear and detecting threats.</span>
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<p>The association between media exposure and post-traumatic stress symptoms was strongest for those with a particular brain response in the <a href="https://neuroscientificallychallenged.com/posts/know-your-brain-amygdala">amygdala</a>, a brain area involved in processing fear and detecting potential threats. </p>
<p>Earlier in the study, many of the same children had been particularly reactive when viewing fearful facial expressions. At the same time, their brain scans showed reduced activity in another region of the brain, the <a href="https://neuroscientificallychallenged.com/posts/know-your-brain-orbitofrontal-cortex">orbitofrontal cortex</a>, thought to be involved in reducing emotional arousal.</p>
<p>That brain activation profile marked vulnerability for developing post-traumatic stress symptoms after viewing disaster-related media coverage.</p>
<h2>What can parents do?</h2>
<p>These findings highlight how children do not need to be in harm’s way or even close to a disaster to be affected by it – exposure to media coverage of a disaster can have a substantial impact as well.</p>
<p>They also suggest that there are identifiable vulnerabilities that might make some children more likely to be emotionally affected by media.</p>
<p>Scientists are increasingly interested in understanding what exposure to traumatic news coverage is doing to younger viewers who are still developing a sense of security. Recent research has suggested that parents should also be concerned about children’s exposure to social media apps such as Instagram and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-16/tiktok-school-shooting-threats-prompt-closures-and-more-police?sref=Hjm5biAW">TikTok</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A phone with six tornado warning texts." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442647/original/file-20220125-25-1nmzznp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Phones in South Florida lit up with warnings during Hurricane Irma.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-smart-phone-extreme-threat-alert-warning-news-photo/1084725806">Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>So what can parents do? For starters, parents can monitor and limit access to some internet content for young viewers.</p>
<p>While it is important for parents to get periodic updates about impending storms or fires, extended exposure to such content rarely provides additional actionable information. Intermittent check-ins of breaking news may be appropriate, but the TV and social media do not have to be on constantly.</p>
<p>It’s easy to routinely unplug, and it’s good for the mental health of children.</p>
<p>[<a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-youresmart">Read The Conversation daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan S. Comer receives funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), and the FTX Foundation, and he receives book royalties from Macmillan Learning.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Dick receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p>Children don’t have to be in physical danger for disaster images to have a powerful psychological impact.Jonathan S. Comer, Professor of Psychology and Psychiatry, Florida International UniversityAnthony Steven Dick, Professor of Psychology, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234012019-09-12T11:06:57Z2019-09-12T11:06:57ZHotels play vital roles in relief efforts when disaster such as the Maui wildfires strikes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542230/original/file-20230810-16-6db21d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C105%2C5262%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lahaina, Hawaii, was a wasteland of burned-out homes and obliterated communities after wildfires ripped through the town.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/9d084f2d3a504d8f97b0d1cf6d3f8809/photo?Query=maui%20wildfire&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=35&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hotels are more than a place to stay while on vacation. They are also critical for disaster relief and recovery. </p>
<p>When major hurricanes, wildfires or other disasters strike, relief <a href="https://www.fema.gov/es/news-release/20200220/fema-federal-agencies-ready-hurricane-dorian-heads-florida">organizations like Federal Emergency Management Agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2019/red-cross-commits-initial-2m-to-help-bahamas-helps-evacuees-coming-to-us.html">Red Cross</a> are usually seen at the heart of the disaster response. Less publicized are the essential roles hotels play in aiding and supporting the efforts of first responders and residents. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/maui-wildfires-extra-logistical-challenges-hinder-governments-initial-response-when-disasters-strike-islands-211384">wildfires rage on the island</a> of Maui, Hawaii, hotels hooked up to diesel generators <a href="https://lodgingmagazine.com/ahla-partners-with-hawaii-hotel-alliance-to-support-relief-efforts-in-west-maui/">are doing their best to support the needs</a> of not only their guests and employees but other residents of the community as well.</p>
<p>To better understand their role in relief efforts, my colleagues <a href="https://www.rit.edu/gis/academics/faculty/schneider">Jennifer L. Schneider</a>, <a href="https://www.rit.edu/directory/mxkism-muhammet-kesgin">Muhammet Kesgin</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gNiId2AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Sarah Dobie</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=o_ZBzNIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and I</a> interviewed over 40 hotel general managers in Florida in 2017 and collected online survey data on 156 more to study what they did during and after Hurricane Irma struck that year. </p>
<p>We were impressed by the range of roles hotels said they take on in a disaster, whether a massive storm in Florida or a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/10/us/wildfires-maui-hawaii">wildfire in Maui</a>. </p>
<h2>Preparing for the storm</h2>
<p>Hotels located in the vicinity of a disaster are in a unique position to help, because unlike other first responders, they are already physically there with large and fortified buildings. </p>
<p>Our interviews in Florida showed that hotels take steps every year to mitigate the impact of hurricane season. This annual preparedness involves continued education, planning and sharing of best practices through local hotel associations, such as the <a href="https://frla.org/hurricane-resources/">Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association</a> and <a href="https://www.keyslodging.org/hurricane-conference.htm">Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West</a>. </p>
<p>“There is no way FEMA could set up temporary housing as fast as hotels in providing immediate places for people to stay in impacted areas,” one general manager told us. </p>
<p>Hotels mitigate the potential of being closed by signing advance contracts for diesel fuel to run generators in case electricity is lost. They also line up contractors ahead of time to repair any damage that might occur. </p>
<p>One manager even reported taking out US$5,000 in cash to make sure she was able to buy groceries for local residents in need, since the lack of electricity was forcing stores to accept cash only.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="an aerial view shows a patch of houses and busineses destroyed next to others that weren't damaged near the water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292113/original/file-20190912-190031-3qcxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hurricane Irma was a Category 4 storm when it crossed the Florida Keys in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/two-more-hurricane-irma-pix/bc989567ebb24b6abd84952a74c9fcb5/2/0">AP Photo</a></span>
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<h2>Offering shelter and aiding recovery</h2>
<p>During Hurricane Irma, residents and visitors were forced to evacuate certain parts of the state and sought shelter from the storm wherever they could, including at hotels, some of which <a href="https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/florida-cre-proves-resilient-in-face-of-hurricane-irma-due-to-long-term-pre/">are resilient to Category 5 hurricanes</a>. </p>
<p>How much a hotel can help with disaster response can depend on how severely its own infrastructure is damaged. But even when there is damage and no electricity, hoteliers reported that lodging was the key resource they were able to provide victims of Irma, whether they were local residents who fled homes or insurance adjusters and response teams trying to get things back up and running. </p>
<p>Managers told us they offered discounted room rates for people trying to get out of the way of the oncoming storm and waived their usual pet policies to help those fleeing the hurricane with animals. </p>
<p>Some managers said their hotels transformed from four-star resorts to simple shelters where first responders or power repair workers could find a safe and free place to sleep. One manager reported setting up dozens of cots in a ballroom for a National Guard command post.</p>
<p>Hotel employees who felt unsafe in their homes were allowed to ride out the storm with their families for free. And in some cases, they provided housing for months after the storm. </p>
<p>Beyond lodging, in some cases hotels sent out engineers to inspect employee homes to determine whether they were habitable while they waited for official inspections.</p>
<p>Beyond the humanitarian value of providing assistance, separate research I helped conduct also found that hotels that provide relief <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2022.103360">may produce goodwill</a> through the shared vulnerability that employees and customers experience. When customers receive assistance during periods of vulnerability and recognize that employees are facing similar challenges, they become advocates for public support of the business, its workers and the broader industry and destination impacted by the disaster.</p>
<p>Whether in Florida or Maui, hotels serve as <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures3040046">critical hubs for disaster relief and recovery</a>. As such, policymakers should be aware of their dual role as both private sector businesses and community resources.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Sept. 12, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Lagiewski received funding from the American Hotel and Lodging Educational Foundation (AHLEF) for this study. </span></em></p>Hotels are helping the Hawaiian island of Maui recover from the catastrophic impact of wildfires, just as they have in Florida following hurricanes.Rick Lagiewski, Principal Lecturer – Management, Rochester Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1226982019-08-30T12:15:19Z2019-08-30T12:15:19ZHow do hospitals know what to do when hurricanes approach?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290212/original/file-20190829-106524-1lvp7g3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This file photo shows a building at the Bay Medical Center Sacred Heart hospital damaged from Hurricane Michael in Panama City, Fla. in Oct. 11, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Michael-Hospitals/3136f6b58cbf464dbc88a15091b8754f/42/0">David Goldman/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all expect hospitals to be open and operating when we need them, but extreme weather events like hurricanes are a strain on resources and pose significant challenges for hospitals. </p>
<p>Closing a hospital is an extreme action, but several <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">hospitals in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina</a> did just that before the arrival of Hurricane Irma in 2017. </p>
<p>With <a href="http://www.fha.org/facts.html">more than 300 hospitals</a> and a higher share of older adults than any other state, emergency plans for Florida’s hospitals were a critical issue facing emergency planners during those storms. This is true now as well as Hurricane Dorian approaches the state.</p>
<p>As a professor of urban planning, I have studied emergency planning and evacuation and also co-authored an extensive report on how hospitals coped with the aftermath of <a href="https://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/bulletin/06/20-01/02katrinasem.asp">Hurricane Katrina</a> and <a href="https://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/Reconnaissance/08-SP07/08-SP07.pdf">Hurricane Gustav</a>. Hospitals plan for catastrophic events, but there are always lessons to be learned. </p>
<p>Hospitals try to stay open and to care for patients already hospitalized and for those who suffer injury or illness from a storm. Here’s how they do it. </p>
<h2>Planning is paramount</h2>
<p>Each hospital is required to have an emergency plan, usually approved by the hospital’s accrediting body. A hospital director and emergency leadership team are responsible for implementing the disaster plan.</p>
<p>A hospital typically convenes a top leadership team and activates the hospital’s Incident Command Center (ICC). Team members coordinate with weather experts, local governments, local law enforcement, ambulance companies and first responders, and communicate with patients and their families. </p>
<p>One of the most difficult decisions facing a hospital’s leadership team as it prepares to face a storm is the decision to evacuate some or all of the hospital’s patients.</p>
<p>Before a storm, a decision would be made to “shelter in place” (prepare the hospital and all patients and staff to “batten down the hatches” and remain in the hospital) or perform a full-scale evacuation, as did several hospitals in the <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">Florida Keys, Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville</a> as Irma approached. In that case, patients would be moved to other facilities. This is rare, however, as the risk to patients and costs in time and money are very high. </p>
<p>In some cases, a hospital will transfer certain patients at very high risk should a power outage occur, as a Savannah hospital decided to do in <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/09/irma-hospital-evacuations-rundown/">transferring newborns from its neonatal unit</a> to hospitals in Atlanta.</p>
<p>Hurricanes can be classified as an expected event, unlike other extreme events that happen spontaneously and without warning, like earthquakes. When a hurricane is predicted, plans are focused on the “zero hour,” or when the hurricane is predicted to make landfall. Major milestones in the emergency plan are performed according to a predetermined schedule in the hours and days leading up to the zero hour.</p>
<p>Hospital staff prepare the hospital to weather a storm. Supplies and equipment must be moved to higher floors in case of flooding. Security must be on hand because of the threat of vandals and looters. At the same time, patients must be continually cared for.</p>
<p>On the patient side, patients who can be discharged from a hospital before a disaster strikes are discharged. New patients are not admitted. Elective surgeries are canceled. Pregnant women and patients who need specialized care, such as the babies in Savannah, may be transferred to facilities out of harm’s way. But transferring a patient is a decision made with great care, as any transfer could produce shocks that put patients in grave danger.</p>
<h2>Preparing for the worst</h2>
<p>The medical staff of doctors, nurses and technicians are typically divided into an “A team,” who would be in place in the hospital when the disaster strikes, and a “B team,” who would be on standby to report to the hospital after the disaster and relieve the A team. Sometimes, the B team is already at the hospital and goes into action to relieve the A team as necessary. </p>
<p>There is no difference in ability between the A and B teams; they are merely called A and B to distinguish between the two groups. That said, staff members with disaster experience are prized employees. </p>
<p>Depending on hospital policy, hospital staff members may be allowed to bring family members and even pets with them to the hospital, since past experience has shown that this practice increases the likelihood they will report to work in the face of the disaster and not flee and abandon their jobs. During <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/50896/411348-Hospitals-in-Hurricane-Katrina.PDF">Hurricane Katrina</a>, some hospital staff evacuated New Orleans when they were expected at work, and hospital administrators have since better communicated emergency plans to reassure all staffers that their safety is of prime importance.</p>
<h2>Dealing with the chaos after a storm</h2>
<p>Hospitals also face important decisions about patient care after a storm. To evacuate after a disaster and face aftermath conditions, such as <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/hurricane-katrina">unprecedented flooding in New Orleans</a> following Hurricane Katrina, could be more challenging than evacuating before a disaster. Dangerous hospital evacuations were performed in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. If extreme flooding occurs, emergency plans must take into account the fact the surface transportation might not be available.</p>
<p>In the aftermath of a disaster, hospitals may suffer power loss. Emergency plans call for backup power and other contingency systems. Uninterrupted power is critical, since some patients may be connected to lifesaving equipment. </p>
<p>In southern states, where most hurricanes in the U.S. first hit land, air conditioning is vital to patient comfort. Therefore, hospitals in states such as Florida, Georgia and South Carolina must have a plan to ensure air conditioning, when possible. </p>
<p>Hospitals must also be prepared to be self-sufficient in the event that responders cannot reach them. Plenty of food, water and medicine must be on hand. Emergency supplies are always on hand in hospitals, but hospitals order even more if the threat of an extreme event is real, as was the case with Irma.</p>
<h2>Lessons from previous extreme events</h2>
<p>Any time a disaster occurs and a hospital’s ICC is activated, there are lessons to be learned. Hospitals’ experiences in Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Sandy and other extreme events brought some of those lessons to the forefront.</p>
<p>First, it is especially important to construct resilient building systems, such as electrical, gas, water and sewers. Emergency planners should plan for a backup system to activate should a main system fail. For example, backup generators, which typically had been placed on first-floor or basement maintenance rooms, are now often placed on higher floors after they were wiped out in previous hurricanes and floods. Many hospitals also have their own wells on site (or wells that can be used in emergency).</p>
<p>Second, hospitals must plan to be self-sufficient, in a worst-case scenario for up to a month. Hospitals should be prepared with greater quantities and fuel and critical supplies. Agreements with partners made in advance of disasters can open up channels for faster delivery of supplies.</p>
<p>When disaster strikes, protecting lives is a top priority, and hospital staffers are surely some of the bravest people working to save lives. </p>
<p>Hospital communities should take comfort in their preparation of a disaster plan, and then execute it with adaptability and flexibility. Advanced planning for extreme events allows hospital staff to focus on what they do best – compassionate patient care – when a disaster strikes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Baldwin Hess does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even in areas predicted to take direct hits from hurricanes and other storms, hospitals must do all they can to stay open. It isn’t an easy task, but preparation and practice help.Daniel Baldwin Hess, Professor, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1193682019-07-17T14:06:45Z2019-07-17T14:06:45ZBarbudans are resisting ‘disaster capitalism’, two years after Hurricane Irma<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282243/original/file-20190702-126355-j085bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">"The recovery? Look around. It been nearly two years ... and I want people to know things are still bad here" – Barbuda resident Fifi.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/photography/voices-from-the-margins/">Tamzin Forster</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been nearly two years since Hurricane Irma devastated the tiny Caribbean island of Barbuda. Gusts of <a href="https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/905302579999100928">150mph or more</a> damaged or destroyed almost every structure on the island, and its 1,600 residents were evacuated. Around 1,300 people soon returned, but since then, most have lived without routine public services or safe housing, and they face increasing pressure from the government to migrate off the island so it can be redeveloped for mass tourism.</p>
<p>Antigua and Barbuda are a twin island state. Barbuda, the smaller and less built up of the two, has until now escaped overdevelopment and has been largely left to its natural state of mangroves and scrub brush. Its residents make a living from sustainable fishing and the export of lobster, along with low-key tourism. </p>
<p>Since emancipation from slavery in 1834, Barbudans have governed their land in common, without private ownership. Residents and their descendants can confirm their claim for parcels of land with the democratically elected, 11-member Barbuda council. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284015/original/file-20190715-173370-mjn0os.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Irma was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, and it passed directly over Barbuda.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk">Tamzin Forster</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Following Hurricane Irma in 2017, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda – Gaston Browne – has sought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-grab-on-hurricane-hit-barbuda-could-leave-the-island-almost-entirely-owned-by-banks-95538">revoke this centuries-old system of communal land rights</a>, stating that freehold tenure will allow Barbudans to secure <a href="https://antiguaobserver.com/barbudans-to-get-title-ownerships-of-lands-they-occupy/">bank loans to rebuild their houses</a>. </p>
<p>Earlier in 2019, the photographer <a href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/">Tamzin Forster</a> and I travelled to Barbuda to see what this meant in practice. We spoke to many local residents in order to understand how the island is – or isn’t – recovering, and what their visions were for the future of Barbuda. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/land-grab-on-hurricane-hit-barbuda-could-leave-the-island-almost-entirely-owned-by-banks-95538">'Land grab' on hurricane-hit Barbuda could leave the island almost entirely owned by banks</a>
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<p>“After Irma the Antiguan side of government has been calling us all sorts of names, like inhabitants and squatters. But this is our land and we have lived here all our lives,” said Barbudan resident and resident DJ, Ordrick.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282314/original/file-20190702-126345-q06guw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ordrick, aka Jicky, set up a radio station in his home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tamzin Forster</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Browne’s rhetoric that Barbudans are “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/global-development/la-fg-barbuda-land-dispute-20171009-story.html">squatting</a>” on the land has been met with collective resistance from locals who argue that the Antiguan side of government wants to establish freehold tenure to free up the island for purchase by international interests to establish private resorts for mass tourism, as in Antigua. Locals, including secretary of the island’s council, Paul Nedd, have argued that Barbudans legally own land communally. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282315/original/file-20190702-126350-pocyul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Our citizens are going through a psychological trauma since Hurricane Irma. They appear normal walking by … but when they go back to their homes, they are back to that trauma’ – Paul Nedd.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tamzin Forster</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The situation in Barbuda has been described as an example of “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10714839.2018.1479466?journalCode=rnac20h">disaster capitalism</a>”. As Naomi Klein argued in <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/555/55595/the-shock-doctrine/9780141024530.html">The Shock Doctrine</a>, disaster capitalism describes how wealthy elites exploit crises, such as major natural disasters, to reap profits and deepen inequality, while affected populations are still in shock. </p>
<p>Barbudans are highly suspicious of the Antiguan government’s intentions. As only one out of 17 parliamentary members represent Barbuda, political power is concentrated in Antigua. This adds to the often tense relationship between the two islands since unification in 1981, following independence from the British. </p>
<p>As local resident Byron told us: “I don’t think the government is doing the best for the people. They are doing what is best for Antigua – to profit from our land. They just want a quick fix for development.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282317/original/file-20190702-126396-tmcquy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘We don’t need these huge hotels and international airports’ – Byron Askie.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/voices-from-the-margins-byron/">Tamzin Forster</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Yet residents have stoically remained on the island despite difficult living conditions and a cripplingly slow disaster recovery process. There is only one bank and one post office on the island, and neither are <a href="https://www.barbudaful.net/jlnews/676-bank-protest-we-deserve-better.html">fully functioning</a>. The bank in Barbuda remains derelict with an ATM that only dispenses EC$100 (US$37) at a time, if it works at all. This prompted 30 Barbudans to <a href="http://oecsbusinessfocus.com/barbudans-demand-banking-services/">travel to Antigua to protest</a> about the time it is taking the Antigua Commercial Bank to return banking services. Visitors cannot access money for tours and accommodation, which is stifling the local economy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282283/original/file-20190702-126355-1ks6khb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘If I want my post or to draw money out of the bank so I can buy materials to rebuild my house, I have to spend US$90 to go to Antigua and back’ – Romeo (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tamzin Forster</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most Barbudans we spoke to were opposed to mass development for tourism, epitomised by controversial plans – backed by Browne and Hollywood star <a href="http://www.timescaribbeanonline.com/antigua-robert-deniro-finds-a-new-partner-for-paradise-found-project/">Robert De Niro</a> – to build a large luxury resort called Paradise Found. George Jeffreys, a 72-year-old who has been living in a tent ever since Irma, said that plans for mass tourism threaten Barbudan culture: “The Antigua side of government is against our lifestyle. We as Barbudans don’t want automatic development – we want control. It has to be developed according to our own population’s needs.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282287/original/file-20190702-126369-mrp4dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">George Jeffreys: wants control – not development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tamzin Forster</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Disasters are often viewed as an opportunity for societies to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-5973.2008.00529.x">build back better</a>. However, Barbudans have alternative visions of what better means for the island. “Mass development means you need more employees than the Barbudans on the island, which undermines the whole Barbuda concept of lifestyle,” resident Joycelin told us. “What needs to happen is small, effective hotels. Small effective restaurants and shops that can accommodate our community.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284069/original/file-20190715-173376-2q79bz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joyce: ‘We need to be able to vote on what is allowed to be built here after Irma.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/voices-from-the-margins-joyce/">Tamzin Forster</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ida has lived on Barbuda for more than 70 years. “We ain’t against the hotels,” she said, “but we need new industries where people can learn skills instead of us always being the cleaners in the hotels”. Others we spoke to wanted to amend regulations to allow Barbuda’s seaport to <a href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/voices-from-the-margins-fifi/">directly trade with other islands</a>. Currently, imports and exports must go via Antigua, which means that profits from trade tariffs go directly to Antigua. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282306/original/file-20190702-126391-10srqf5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ida (left): ‘It’s always been bad between Barbuda and Antigua, but this government is the worst.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.tamzinforster.co.uk/voices-from-the-margins-ida/">Tamzin Forster</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recovery is progressing painfully slowly on Barbuda, and the Antiguan side of government continues to mount pressure for people to leave the island. For now Barbudans are continuing to fiercely defend their system of communal land rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Sou receives funding from royal geographical society</span></em></p>Barbuda’s recovery is deliberately slow as neighbouring Antigua wants to develop the island’s tourism.Gemma Sou, Lecturer in Disaster Studies, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1140532019-03-22T10:44:43Z2019-03-22T10:44:43ZWhy flood insurance needs an overhaul: 6 questions answered<p><em>Editor’s note: The Trump administration plans to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">significantly revamp the pricing of flood insurance</a>. While some homeowners would see their premiums rise, others would benefit from lower rates. We asked an insurance expert to explain what the government program currently works and why it’s in dire need of fixing.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1385590588018-fef2f58685fac4e186105be4c6ac51be/Sandy_MAT_AppF_508post.pdf">serves the public interest</a> by promoting “sound land use” and minimizing exposure of property to flood losses, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many American homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policies-force-month">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of this January. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 20 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that that they represent only about 15 percent of all policies sold nationally.</p>
<p>In recent years, the <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">number of such policies</a> has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and because people underestimate the risk of flooding. In Nebraska, the hardest hit by recent record flooding in the Midwest, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/river-flooding-in-midwest-damage-will-likely-total-more-than-1-billion/">there are fewer than 10,000 policies</a> for a state with almost 2 million residents. The damage is expected to exceed US$1 billion. </p>
<p>Even hurricane-prone areas, such as those hit by Harvey in 2017, are woefully underinsured. In Harris County, which includes Houston, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimated</a> before Harvey that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage should be higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that totaled about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
<h2>3. Why do people at great risk of flooding forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to $250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the National Flood Insurance Program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them based largely on whether a home is inside or outside of the 100-year floodplain. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt in 2017, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/697245.pdf">$21 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of September. </p>
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<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program that millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="https://www.marsh.com/us/insights/research/reforming-the-national-flood-insurance-program.html">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>The Trump administration for its part <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/climate-advocates-cheer-trump-policy-shift-on-flood-insurance">proposes calculating premiums</a> to more accurately reflect the actual flood risk individual homes face beginning in 2020. This could result in higher rates for many homeowners.</p>
<p>But I believe the government also needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration has proposed a major revamp of the National Flood Insurance Program since its inception in 1968. Here’s why it needs fixing.Robert W. Klein, Professor Emeritus of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1054782019-03-15T10:42:43Z2019-03-15T10:42:43ZJamaica leads in Richard Branson-backed plan for a Caribbean climate revolution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263750/original/file-20190313-123554-xyvvxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Turbines in Manchester Parish, Jamaica, the English-speaking Caribbean's first wind farm.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/alternative-energy-electric-power-production-saving-1209753904">Debbie Ann Powell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After hurricanes Irma and Maria <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/7/3/17530814/puerto-rico-power-blackout-over-hurricane-maria">tore through the Caribbean</a> in 2017, devastating <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/dominica/dominica-impact-hurricane-maria-disaster-profile-january-2018">dozens of islands</a> – including billionaire Richard Branson’s private isle, Necker Island – Branson called for a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/11/richard-branson-decimated-caribbean-islands-need-a-marshall-plan-after-irma/">Caribbean Marshall Plan</a>.” </p>
<p>He wanted world powers and global financial institutions to unite to protect the Caribbean against the effects of climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263751/original/file-20190313-123545-1aml1kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Branson at a Climate-Smart Accelerator event.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.caribbeanaccelerator.org/watch-the-launch">Adrian Creary/Studiocraft</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>That hasn’t happened. So Branson and his government partners from <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/08/09/caribbean-aims-become-world-first-climate-smart-zone">27 Caribbean countries</a> hope that his celebrity, connections and billions will prod local politicians and the financial community to act.</p>
<p>In August 2018, at a <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/14/caribbean-nations-partner-with-global-superstars-corporate-giants-for-1-billion-climate-accelerator/">star-studded event</a> at the University of the West Indies in Mona, Jamaica, Branson helped to launch the <a href="https://www.virgin.com/virgin-unite/launching-caribbean-climate-smart-accelerator">Caribbean Climate-Smart Accelerator</a>, a US$1 billion effort to kickstart a green energy revolution in the region.</p>
<p>Its aims include convincing global financial institutions to fund ambitious climate mitigation efforts in the Caribbean, upgrading critical infrastructure across <a href="https://grist.org/article/caribbean-leaders-beg-trump-to-act-on-climate-change/">this vulnerable region</a>. </p>
<p>Well before Branson’s arrival, however, some Caribbean countries were already working to break their dependence on fossil fuels.</p>
<h2>Jamaica’s modern energy grid</h2>
<p>Even prior to the debilitating 2017 hurricane season, polling showed that a strong majority of people in the Caribbean see climate change as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/caribbean-residents-see-climate-change-as-a-severe-threat-but-most-in-us-dont-heres-why-91049">very serious threat</a>.</p>
<p>The region – where we study <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Masao_Ashtine">renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/fst/cmp/staff/physics/thomas-rogers.aspx">climate change</a> – is home to <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/conferences/bpoa1994">16 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries</a>. </p>
<p>That’s because the stronger and more frequent storms, extreme droughts and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH1SwOLFH_w">coastal flooding</a> that result from <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-warming">rising global temperatures</a> hit <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sids/list">rural island nations</a> hard. </p>
<p>Before Branson took up the cause, several Caribbean nations were <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-may-scuttle-caribbeans-post-hurricane-plans-for-a-renewable-energy-boom-94235">upgrading their electric grids</a> to improve energy independence and better prepare islands for the impacts of storms that knock out power. </p>
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<p><a href="http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/idb-commends-jamaica-on-climate-change-activities_155966?profile=1373">Jamaica</a> opened the <a href="http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/wigton-ipo-gives-energy-sector-new-wind_131527?profile=1373">largest wind farm</a> in the English-speaking Caribbean in 2004. The Wigton Wind Farm now helps power over 55,000 surrounding homes, households that would formerly have used some 60,000 barrels of oil annually.</p>
<p>As part of its national goal to generate 50 percent of all its power using renewable sources, Jamaica now hopes to build <a href="http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20171015/pcj-exploring-offshore-wind-farm">offshore wind farms</a>. </p>
<p>It has also enhanced the stability of its grid with a hybrid energy storage system that uses a <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/03/05/construction-begins-on-hybrid-storage-facility-in-jamaica/">flywheel and a battery</a> to store solar and wind energy for use as needed, including after storms.</p>
<h2>From 0 to 100</h2>
<p>Dominica is another Caribbean pioneer in climate mitigation. </p>
<p>This tiny island already generates <a href="https://www.cepal.org/en/news/dominica-caricom-forerunner-renewable-energy-use-latest-eclac-report-reveals">28 percent of its electricity from wind, hydropower and other renewable sources</a>. In contrast, 0.3 percent of electricity in Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean’s main oil exporter, is renewable.</p>
<p>In an effort to diversify its energy sources away from diesel, Dominica’s government has secured <a href="https://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/country/dominica">$30 million from the international Climate Investment Fund</a> and <a href="https://wicnews.com/caribbean/uk-commits-funding-climate-resilient-dominica-185410254/">$90 million from the United Kingdom</a> to invest in <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190125005378/en/Dominica-Provide-Entire-Population-Clean-Geothermal-Energy">geothermal energy</a>.</p>
<p>The country is on track to reach 100 percent renewable energy by the end of this year. If it succeeds, it will join <a href="https://www.clickenergy.com.au/news-blog/12-countries-leading-the-way-in-renewable-energy/">Iceland</a> in entirely forgoing dirty oil, coal and gas energy.</p>
<p>Dominica may soon have some more local competition. </p>
<p>Barbados, in the eastern Caribbean, hopes to use <a href="https://barbadostoday.bb/2018/07/17/govt-to-establish-new-renewable-energy-regime/">100 percent renewable energy sources by 2030</a> using a mix of wind, solar and biofuels derived from <a href="https://www.agro-chemistry.com/news/biogas-and-biomethane-to-solve-barbados-waste-problem/">food waste</a> and <a href="http://www.bstabarbados.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GROWING-ENERGY-Richard-Armstrong.pdf">grass</a>, which could benefit the island’s ailing agricultural sector.</p>
<h2>Caribbean academics take the lead</h2>
<p>Such policies are what Branson and others call “<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/08/09/caribbean-aims-become-world-first-climate-smart-zone">climate-smart</a>.” While preparing countries for extreme weather, they create jobs and boost key industries. The result is an economy custom-built for the future.</p>
<p>This is already happening, albeit slowly, in many countries worldwide. </p>
<p>In the U.S., wind and solar are already <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-forces-are-driving-a-clean-energy-revolution-in-the-us-95204">financially competitive</a> with traditional coal power in many places, particularly for new power generators. So, over time, as older facilities age out across the globe, these technologies are being replaced with modern energy systems. </p>
<p>As in other places, the process of moving more Caribbean countries off fossil fuels requires mustering the political will and financial means needed to transform a nation’s entire grid.</p>
<p>For over a century, governments have created regulatory systems and policies designed around imported fossil fuels. Replacing the archaic tax incentives and regulations that <a href="https://brea.bb/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Aidan-J-Rogers-Renewable-Energy-and-Regional-Austerity-A-Legislative-and-Regulatory-Perspective.pdf">discourage renewable energy development</a> takes time, effort and money.</p>
<p>Doing so requires a detailed analysis of a country’s relationship with energy. How are homes, businesses, tourism, farms and transportation networks powered? Which energy alternative is best suited for each use? What resources are available? </p>
<p>In our observation, local academics played a strong role in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/26/climate-change-is-real-we-must-not-offer-credibility-to-those-who-deny-it">getting policymakers in Jamaica</a>, Barbados and Dominica to undertake these kinds of assessments.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/06/climate-change-in-the-caribbean-learning-lessons-from-irma-and-maria">University of the West Indies professor Michael Taylor</a> founded the Climate Studies Group to help the region adapt to life with climate change. </p>
<p>Failure to prepare for future storms would mean “the destruction of ‘island life’ as we know it,” Taylor said.</p>
<p>It was an academic, too, who in 2014 first pushed Barbados to commit to shifting entirely over to <a href="https://brea.bb/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/100-percent-Renewables-for-Barbados-plan.pdf">clean energy</a>. </p>
<p>Professor Olav Hohmeyer of Germany’s Flensburg University – who was then teaching at the University of the West Indies – told the recently formed <a href="https://brea.bb/">Barbados Renewable Energy Association</a> that the island had <a href="http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/59153/usd18-billion-energy-proposal">the natural resources necessary to become 100 percent renewable</a> within 10 years. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263753/original/file-20190313-123554-5z51m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barbados wants to reduce the carbon footprint of its tourism sector by enabling cruise ships to plug in at its Bridgetown port.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-I-BRB-CRI-TRV-FILE-TRAVEL-TRIP-CARIBBEAN-CRICKET/d75c06b0ce144b2aae12cdecd7990c38/1/0">AP Photo/Chris Brandis</a></span>
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<p>The university and the energy association worked to convince Barbados’ electric utility, central bank, farmers and local policymakers that <a href="http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/67541/barbados-lead-renewable-energy">an island-wide energy transition was feasible</a> – and strategic. </p>
<p>They also engaged the International Development Bank, which in 2016 published <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahUKEwjuxafOiP3gAhWLZd8KHZSVDL4QFjACegQIBxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.iadb.org%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F11319%2F7909%2FAchieving-Sustainable-Energy-in-Barbados-Energy-Dossier.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&usg=AOvVaw0ZRuwaELcqvllJr0N7elXu">a detailed and generally positive assessment</a> on renewable energy development in Barbados. </p>
<h2>Barbados’ clean revolution</h2>
<p>Politicians in Barbados were slower to come around, weighing the cost of green energy against other national development priorities. </p>
<p>Then came the 2017 hurricane season. </p>
<p>In May 2018, Mia Mottley of the leftist Labour Party was <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/05/31/the-opposition-wins-every-seat-in-the-barbados-parliament">elected prime minister of Barbados</a> with a bold sustainability pledge. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263752/original/file-20190313-123554-1qukq7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley at the 2018 United Nations General Assembly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/UN-General-Assembly-Barbados/83b2289c0dfd4b2ca96ad7e089414d72/4/0">AP Photo/Frank Franklin II</a></span>
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<p>At the <a href="https://gadebate.un.org/en/73/barbados">United Nations General Assembly</a> later that year, Mottley declared that her country would be 100 percent renewable by 2030. And she insisted that the world must help Barbados and other island nations in their climate change fight. </p>
<p>Her Labour Party even envisages electrifying <a href="http://www.vdg.no/getfile.php/345/2....Emera%20Clean%20Energy%20Investment%20Plan%20%28V%29%20-%20March%202015.pdf">Barbados’ busy Bridgetown port</a>, allowing the 500 cruise ships that dock each year to plug into battery-run power sources rather than operating on-board generators.</p>
<p>Three Caribbean countries are well on their way to becoming “climate smart.” With international support, the other 23 may get there, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even before the British billionaire invested US$1 billion in making the region ‘climate-smart,’ Jamaica, Barbados and Dominica were pioneering a renewable energy boom in the Caribbean.Masaō Ashtine, Lecturer in Alternative Energy, University of the West Indies, Mona CampusTom Rogers, Senior lecturer, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1030582018-09-12T18:46:34Z2018-09-12T18:46:34ZWhat is flood insurance and why the system is broken: 6 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236092/original/file-20180912-133877-1n9qad0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High tides, whipped in by Hurricane Hazel in 1954, shattered boats and buildings in Swansboro, N.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Tropical-Storms-Carolinas/b64046ffe46546e58ce4a10b2021697e/1/0">AP Photo, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: Homeowners generally rely on insurance provided by the federal government to cover the costs of rebuilding their lives after a flood. We asked an insurance expert to explain the government program and its challenges.</em></p>
<h2>1. What is flood insurance?</h2>
<p>Homeowners’ insurance does not cover damage to a home caused by flooding. A homeowner must have a separate policy to cover flood-related losses, defined as water traveling along or under the ground.</p>
<p>Most such policies are underwritten by the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The program was established in 1968 to address the lack of availability of flood insurance in the private market and reduce demand for federal disaster assistance. It also contains <a href="https://www.fema.gov/floodplain-management-requirements">provisions</a> intended to reduce flood risk.</p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program’s activities are funded largely by the premiums and fees paid by its policyholders, supplemented by a little from the federal budget to help pay for flood risk mapping. Because the program serves the public interest, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/opinions/save-national-flood-insurance-investing-nature/">some</a> believe that more of its funding for flood risk management should be borne by taxpayers. </p>
<p>Homeowners can purchase a federal flood policy directly from the program or through a private insurer. Separately, some private insurers sell their own flood policies on a limited basis for properties that are overcharged by the government’s program.</p>
<h2>2. How many homeowners have flood insurance?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to determine exactly how many homeowners have flood insurance. </p>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance">had just over 5 million policies in force</a> as of May 31. Of these policies, approximately 69 percent were on single-family homes and 21 percent on condo units. There is no source on how many private flood policies are in force, but my sense is that it is comparatively small.</p>
<p>In recent years, the number of such policies has been dropping across the country over concerns about the cost and an underestimation of the risks. Some of the counties hardest hit by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, for example, such as Harris (which includes Houston), <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/flood-policies-plunge-houston-years-harvey-49513946">have experienced significant declines</a>. </p>
<p>A more revealing – and <a href="https://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm">more difficult to ascertain</a> – stat is the share of homeowners in a disaster area who actually have flood insurance. In Harris County, for example, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/consumer-flood-insurance-wake-hurricane-harvey/story?id=49535161">experts estimate</a> that only about 15 percent of homeowners were insured for floods – though the percentage is likely higher in areas near coastlines.</p>
<p>Real estate data company <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/news/wildfires-and-hurricane-related-floods-were-most-destructive-natural-hazards-in-2017.aspx">CoreLogic</a> estimated that approximately 75 percent of flood losses from Harvey were uninsured, a figure that rises to about 80 percent for Hurricane Irma.</p>
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<h2>3. Why do people at great risk forgo insurance?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/">number of factors</a> affect a homeowner’s decision to buy flood insurance – or not. </p>
<p>People who perceive that their exposure to floods is high are more likely to buy it, all other things equal. While a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage/">mandatory purchase requirement</a> is intended to force owners of mortgaged homes in areas at high risk of flooding to buy insurance, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/hurricanes-highlight-failure-to-enforce-flood-insurance-rules">it’s estimated</a> that only about half of them do. </p>
<p>One reason might be that 43 percent of homeowners <a href="http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/pulse-wp-020217-final.pdf">incorrectly believe</a> that their homeowners’ insurance covers them for flood losses.</p>
<p>Other factors also come into play, such as a lack of information, the difficulty of calculating flood risk and the expectation that the government will provide disaster assistance that will fully cover a homeowner’s uninsured flood losses – which is in fact <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/business/harvey-aid-sba-disaster-loans.html?mcubz=1&_r=0">rarely the case</a>.</p>
<h2>4. What does flood insurance cover?</h2>
<p>With a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1620-20490-4648/f_679_summaryofcoverage_11_2012.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program policy</a>, a homeowner can purchase coverage on a dwelling up to US$250,000 and the contents of a home up to $100,000. It does not cover costs associated with “loss of use” of a home. </p>
<p>These limits have been in effect since 1994 and are no longer high enough to account for the increase in the replacement cost of homes and the actual cash value of their contents. As a result, some homeowners buy additional flood protection from private insurers to make up any shortfall. </p>
<h2>5. Why is the federal program underwater?</h2>
<p>The National Flood Insurance Program <a href="http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684354.pdf">has faced considerable criticism</a> over its underwriting and pricing of policies, which have resulted in a substantial debt. Essentially, its premiums are not high enough to cover how much it pays out on claims and its other costs. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1382115115666-0fba8b9a68fef69d546513c6da105bbe/BW12_AgentWhat_to_Know_Say_Sect205_Sept2013.pdf">about 20 percent of the properties</a> the program insures pay a subsidized rate. But many other National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are also paying premiums <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/08/29/key-flood-insurance-underwriter-sinks-further-into-debt-as-harvey-slams-texas.html">substantially less</a> than what it costs to insure them because the rates do not adequately account for the catastrophic losses incurred during years when more major storms than normal strike, such as Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. </p>
<p>To show how much single storms can cost, the National Flood Insurance Program <a href="https://www.fema.gov/significant-flood-events">paid out $8.7 billion</a> to cover Harvey-related flood losses, $16.3 billion for Katrina and $8.8 billion for Sandy. </p>
<p>These inadequate rates also exacerbate the <a href="http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2014/09/McGee-2014-Moral-Hazard-and-the-National-Flood-Insurance-Program.pdf">moral hazard created by flood insurance</a>. People are more likely to buy, build or rebuild homes in flood-prone areas and have diminished incentives to invest in flood risk mitigation, such as by elevating their home, if they can buy insurance at below-cost rates. </p>
<p>Although Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20171027/NEWS06/912316843/Trump-signs-disaster-relief-bill-forgiving-16-billion-dollars-NFIP-debt">forgave</a> $16 billion in debt last year, the National Flood Insurance Program still owed <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/fio/Documents/FACIFebruary2018_FEMA.pdf">$20.5 billion</a> to the U.S. Treasury as of February. </p>
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<p>Hurricane Florence and other storms that may follow will substantially increase this debt – and may require more forgiveness.</p>
<h2>6. What can be done to fix the program?</h2>
<p>Legislative efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program to put it on firmer fiscal footing have produced mixed results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31946">Biggert-Waters Act of 2012</a> made a number of changes to the program, such as increasing premiums, to make it “<a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1912-25045-9380/bw12_qa_04_2013.pdf">more financially stable</a>.” While that would have gone a long way to restore its fiscal solvency, an outcry from homeowners in high-risk areas led to the 2014 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library/collections/414">Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability Act</a>, which limited or rescinded many of the Biggert-Waters rate increases. </p>
<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/2874/text">bill</a> in Congress that would fix some but not all of the problems with the program, such as by making it easier for private companies to sell their own policies and tightening the rules for properties that suffer repetitive losses.</p>
<p>But its prospects are dim to opposition from legislators concerned about some of its changes, particularly its rate increases and the repetitive loss provision.</p>
<p>Fundamentally, the program millions of Americans rely on to help them rebuild their lives after a devastating flood <a href="http://www.rff.org/research/collection/reforming-national-flood-insurance-program">needs to be fixed</a>. Its dire financial straits could be resolved by either making taxpayers foot more of the bill or increasing premiums closer to full-cost rates for most homeowners, while also raising total coverage levels.</p>
<p>At the same time, I believe the government needs to do more to convince or compel more at-risk homeowners to buy flood insurance – which would be harder to do if it were to raise rates. To me, this suggests that increasing taxpayer support for the the program will have to be part of the solution so that pricey premiums don’t become a deterrent to someone buying insurance. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-flood-insurance-works-6-questions-answered-83187">article</a> originally published on Sept. 7, 2017</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Hurricane Florence is expected to pound the Carolinas with significant flooding, an insurance expert explains how the program designed to help the millions affected recover.Robert W. Klein, Director, Center for RMI Research, Associate Professor, Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1003712018-07-25T17:01:09Z2018-07-25T17:01:09ZNatural selection in action: Hurricanes Irma and Maria affected island lizards<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228909/original/file-20180723-76263-1stmis0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C543%2C3067%2C2178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Holding on in hurricane-force winds.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Donihue</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Turks and Caicos anole is a small brown lizard found running through the undergrowth in the Turks and Caicos Islands. It’s an endemic species, meaning these few islands are the only place to find <em>Anolis scriptus</em> anywhere in the world. Despite the species being fairly common there, <a href="http://www.anoleannals.org/2011/08/15/anolis-scriptus-an-archipelagic-anole/">scientists know relatively little</a> about its behavior, diet, detailed physical appearance or habitat preference.</p>
<p>In 2017, my colleagues from Harvard University and the Paris Natural History Museum <a href="https://www.colindonihue.com">and I</a> took trains, planes, cars and boats to get to two barely inhabited islands called Pine Cay and Water Cay in Turks and Caicos. There, in contrast to most visitors, we turned our backs on the miles of white sand beaches and headed into the low, dense, scrubby undergrowth to fill those knowledge gaps on this lizard species.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228906/original/file-20180723-189308-1kmhbpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researcher Anne-Claire Fabre hunts for <em>Anolis scriptus</em> lizards on Pine Cay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Donihue</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After a week of walking, catching, measuring and videotaping, we were ready to leave the island – just as Hurricane Irma was brewing far over the horizon to the south and east. The skies were still blue as we headed to the airport, but you could feel a charge in the air from the thrum of activity as everyone prepared for the storm. Four days after we left the islands, the massive Category 5 eye of Hurricane Irma passed directly over our study sites.</p>
<p>I realized that my team and I had the last look at those lizards before they were hit by the storm, and we might have a unique, serendipitous opportunity to revisit and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0352-3">see if there were any patterns to who survived</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228903/original/file-20180723-189316-17tixpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If weathering the hurricanes was a case of survival of the fittest, what features would make these Turks and Caicos anoles most fit?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Donihue</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Were some more suited to survive a hurricane?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2016.0146">a handful of examples</a> of extreme climate events like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128374">droughts</a>, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam5512">cold spells</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icw004">heat waves</a> driving evolutionary changes in affected populations.</p>
<p>What about hurricanes? Hurricanes are so severe and fleeting that it seemed entirely possible to us that survival would just be random – there could be no physical attributes of a 3-inch-long lizard that helped them weather the catastrophic storm.</p>
<p>But what if survival was not random and some lizards were better suited to hanging on for their lives? This would mean the hurricanes could be agents of natural selection. In this scenario, we predicted survivors would be those individuals with particularly large adhesive pads on their fingers and toes or extra-long arms and legs – both physical features that would enable them to grab tight to a branch and make it through the storm. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228907/original/file-20180723-189308-1162zv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Sept. 8, 2017, Hurricane Irma directly hit Turks and Caicos (black circle), shown in water vapor satellite maps (from NOAA, www.goes.noaa.gov). Two weeks later, on Sept. 22, Hurricane Maria struck Turks and Caicos. Map data: Google, (c) 2018 DigitalGlobe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nature and Donihue et al. (For use only with this article)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As we were preparing our revisit, another monstrous hurricane, Maria, hit Turks and Caicos. So it was six weeks and two hurricanes after our initial survey that we returned to Pine Cay and Water Cay to retake the same measurements that we had previously on the surviving lizards.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0352-3">What we found surprised me</a>. Indeed, the surviving populations on both Pine Cay and Water Cay had significantly larger toe pads, on average, than the initial populations had before the hurricanes. We went one step further and used a customized meter to measure the pull of the lizards on a standardized smooth surface and confirmed that large-toepadded animals did have a stronger grip than those animals with smaller toepads.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228904/original/file-20180723-189329-1ht38op.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Toepad surface area predicts the lizard’s clinging strength.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Donihue</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also found that, on average, the surviving lizards had longer arms relative to the lizards we’d measured before the hurricanes.</p>
<p>This pattern was repeated on both islands, suggesting these patterns weren’t flukes – hurricanes can be agents of natural selection.</p>
<p>Contrary to our expectations, though, we found that the back legs of the lizards were shorter on our second visit. This was a head-scratcher for us, as we’d predicted they would be longer among the survivors. So why were stubbier legs an advantage at a time when the lizards were presumably clinging to trees with all their might to avoid being blown away by hurricane winds?</p>
<h2>Longer legs more likely to blow away</h2>
<p>As we were planning our second visit, we realized we had some basic questions about what the lizards did during the hurricanes. Obviously, no scientists were out there in ponchos following the lizards during the storms. We imagined they’d try to ride things out in tree branches. It was possible they’d head to tree roots but that’s not necessarily a safe strategy. Hurricanes often bring storm surge and deluges of rain that would drown a lizard just as sure as the wind would blow them away.</p>
<p>We decided we needed a way to simulate hurricane force winds in the field. So we bought the strongest leaf blower we could find, packed it in our luggage and – despite some very confused customs agents – set it up in our makeshift laboratory on Pine Cay. We then videotaped about 40 lizards as they clung to a perch while we slowly ramped up the leaf blower wind speed, until they were blown, unharmed, into a safety net.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=196&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228908/original/file-20180723-189323-spo297.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=246&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The researchers recorded lizard behavior in high wind conditions, thanks to an imported leaf blower.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Colin Donihue</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What we saw was unexpected: The lizards situated themselves on the perches with their elbows tucked in close to their bodies but their back legs jutting out from either side of the branch. As the wind speed increased, their legs, particularly their thighs, caught wind like a sail, eventually resulting in their hindquarters being blown off the perch. Once half their body was aloft, they soon lost grip altogether. This might be the reason lizards with shorter hind legs survived the hurricanes. Shorter legs mean less surface area to catch the wind like a sail, resulting in all four legs staying in contact with a perch.</p>
<p>Our study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0352-3">published in the journal Nature</a>, suggests that hurricanes could change the evolutionary trajectory of these lizard populations. This is an important insight because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906">hurricanes are getting stronger</a> and more frequent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448">due to climate change</a> and so may play an important role for the evolution of many other populations in their path. Our study is the first to indicate that hurricanes may indeed be agents of natural selection. We’re still waiting to see whether future generations of these island lizards – descendants of hurricane survivors – will carry forward the advantageous physical features that were helpful when the 2017 storms hit. My colleagues and I hope to head back to find out very soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Donihue receives funding from The US National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>In the wake of two hurricanes in the Turks and Caicos Islands, researchers document for the first time that catastrophic storms can be agents of natural selection, influencing how species evolve.Colin Donihue, Postdoctoral Fellow in Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/997112018-07-16T18:36:23Z2018-07-16T18:36:23ZUnderstanding the emoji of solidarity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227502/original/file-20180712-27024-1v8wkd0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What can researchers learn from how people use emoji during tragedies?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When disaster or tragedy strikes, people far away are touched and want to help – but really can’t do much. Often the first thing distant observers do is take to social media to send their thoughts, prayers, support and good wishes for survivors, rescue workers and others affected. And a lot of times, those online posts involve emoji – as well as hashtags in the poster’s own language, and other languages.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"665333736997679105"}"></div></p>
<p>First created in the late 1990s, emoji became prominent worldwide in 2015 when the Oxford Dictionaries named the “face with tears of joy” emoji 😂 the <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/word-of-the-year/word-of-the-year-2015">word of the year</a>. Social media posts often use emoji because they are so expressive in so few characters. Combining emoji with text can be a very efficient way to communicate.</p>
<p>Our research analyzed emoji and their accompanying text to identify how people used emoji to express <a href="http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2130/paper1.pdf">solidarity on Twitter during two crises</a>, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/nov/14/paris-attacks-what-we-know-so-far">November 13, 2015, terror attacks in Paris</a> and the destruction wrought by <a href="https://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/hurricane_irma_caribbean_damag.html">Hurricane Irma in August and September 2017</a>. The existing research on emoji use hasn’t looked at how people communicate support on social media. We were able to quickly see that rather than depictions of the person having an emotional reaction, most tweets expressing solidarity included non-face emoji.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"665317514587578368"}"></div></p>
<h2>Showing support</h2>
<p>Non-face emoji can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2017.07.009">help clarify readers’ perceptions of the message</a>. As the Paris attacks unfolded, the most common support emoji were flags of different countries like Russia 🇷🇺, the U.K. 🇬🇧 and the U.S. 🇺🇸, alongside the French flag 🇫🇷. These, we know, were from people in other countries sending their thoughts to those affected in France. Other related emoji didn’t express solidarity, but conveyed what was happening: Tweets around the Paris attacks used 🔴 and ☎️ to indicate danger and information.</p>
<p>For the Hurricane Irma event, solidarity was expressed with the help of different kinds of hearts, like ❤️ and 💙. A unique characteristic of solidarity during Hurricane Irma event expressed concern for the animals affected, like 🐈, 🐕 and 🐷. Flag emoji were not as prominent as during the Paris attacks.</p>
<h2>Co-occurring emoji</h2>
<p>Often people use emoji paired together. During the Paris attacks, for instance, people sending love to France posted the 🇫🇷❤️ pair. During Hurricane Irma, people sending thoughts and love posted the 🙏❤️ emoji from afar. People in regions affected by the storm often posted the 💨😳 pair.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227048/original/file-20180711-70045-1tmhvj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A network diagram shows how people from outside the affected regions used pairs of emoji to express emotions about Hurricane Irma.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2130/paper1.pdf">Santhanam et al.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, during Hurricane Irma, the most commonly used emoji pairs in tweets from from outside the storm’s area included the sorrow emoji 😔 with either the flag of Antigua and Barbuda 🇦🇬 or Cuba 🇨🇺.</p>
<p>As both events unfolded, tweets carried a steady stream of positive emoji, like 💓 and 💗, which continued into the days afterward. Negative emoji, like 😔 and 💔, on the other hand, peaked at key points – as Hurricane Irma moved closer to the U.S., and during the night of the Paris attacks – but disappeared almost completely afterward.</p>
<p>Documenting how people use emoji to communicate about large disasters offers a new window into human behavior, including how it evolves over time and across the world. In the future, we hope to explore emoji use in connection with collective social movements like <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/metoo-45316">#MeToo</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/gun-control-and-march-for-our-lives-4-essential-reads-93913">#MarchForOurLives</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research discovered how people use emoji to express their concern and support during tragedies and disasters.Sashank Santhanam, Ph.D. Candidate in Computer Science, University of North Carolina – CharlotteSamira Shaikh, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, University of North Carolina – CharlotteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975882018-06-01T15:27:28Z2018-06-01T15:27:28ZNew hurricane season jeopardizes Caribbean recovery: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221362/original/file-20180601-142102-s6r3hk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">RTX O L</span> </figcaption></figure><p>June 1 marks the beginning of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season – an ominous date for the Caribbean region, where many countries have not yet recovered from last year’s catastrophes. </p>
<p>In 2017, six storms of Category 3 or higher – with winds exceeding 111 mph – produced devastating human, environmental and financial damage across the southern United States and the Caribbean. Puerto Rico, Dominica, Barbuda and some U.S. Virgin Islands were all but destroyed. </p>
<p>The hurricanes are estimated to have <a href="https://www.upi.com/Hurricane-Maria-caused-90B-of-damage-in-Puerto-Rico/6421523309427/">cost the region up to US$95.5 billion</a> – $90 billion in Puerto Rico and <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/43446/1/FOCUSIssue1Jan-Mar2018.pdf">$5.4 billion in other Caribbean nations</a>. </p>
<p>We’ve compiled the expert analysis you need to follow this important story. </p>
<h2>1. Tragedy in Puerto Rico</h2>
<p>Puerto Rico remains crippled by last year’s hurricane season. Hurricane Maria knocked out the island’s power grid in September, leaving 3.3 million people scrambling to find food, clean water and medical care. </p>
<p>“The federal recovery effort in this American territory has been under fire nearly every day since then,” write Birthe Anders and Vincenzo Bollettino, who study <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-mission-in-puerto-rico-after-hurricane-was-better-than-critics-say-but-suffered-flaws-91558">the role of the armed forces in disaster relief at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative</a>. “Critics note that hurricane relief in Texas and Florida last year was quicker, more robust and more effective.”</p>
<p>The U.S. military’s deployment to the Caribbean last fall – which included 17,000 troops, 82 aircraft and three combat support hospitals – was “better than critics say but suffered flaws,” they say. </p>
<p>A slow start left some Puerto Ricans stranded without aid for weeks, and the military’s coordination with FEMA was imperfect. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212526/original/file-20180328-109175-989ilz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The military provided life-saving medical attention in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria left many hospitals without power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/YhMk5H">Department of Defense</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>But interviews with Department of Defense responders suggest that the military’s biggest challenge was the “sheer scale of the damage.” </p>
<p>“Puerto Rico’s government was completely overwhelmed,” the researchers found, “making it very difficult for FEMA and the U.S. military to get a clear picture of what was most urgently required – and where.”</p>
<p>And since international humanitarian aid organizations do not work in the U.S., Anders and Bollettino say, “there simply was not enough manpower to get the job done.”</p>
<h2>2. Thousands left dead</h2>
<p>As a result, Puerto Ricans have continued to die from storm-related causes since Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>As of Dec. 29, Puerto Rico’s Department of Public Safety had certified 64 deaths due to Hurricane Maria. But Penn State demographer Alexis R. Santos-Lozada was part of a research team that <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-puerto-ricos-death-toll-from-hurricane-maria-is-so-much-higher-than-officials-thought-97488">contradicted the government’s official tally</a> in November, saying it was a dramatic undercount.</p>
<p>“We compared the number of deaths in September and October last year with data from the same period of time in 2010 to 2016 and concluded that deaths exceeded historical ranges by at least 1,000,” he explains. </p>
<p>A new study has now placed Hurricane Maria’s total death toll at 4,645. Thousands of “indirect” storm deaths occurred from the interruption of medical care for chronic conditions such as kidney disease and diabetes. </p>
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<h2>3. Disaster as opportunity</h2>
<p>While governments struggle to pay recovery’s price tag, some foreign corporations <a href="https://theconversation.com/rebuilding-the-caribbean-will-be-pricey-but-some-are-vying-to-finance-its-recovery-87482">see helping as a business opportunity</a>. </p>
<p>After Hurricane Maria, the electric-car company Tesla sent hundreds of its Powerwall battery systems to Puerto Rico. These “could be paired with solar panels to get the electric grid up and running again,” says energy researcher Masao Ashtine of the University of the West Indies. </p>
<p>By October, Tesla technology was powering the San Juan Children’s Hospital.</p>
<p>The company hopes its work in Puerto Rico will open doors for new investment in the region, Ashtine says.</p>
<p>“Puerto Rico isn’t the only Caribbean country with an inadequate energy grid,” he says. “Across the region, outmoded system designs that rely on a few plants for power production make complete blackouts much higher than grid systems that have an even distribution of power generation.” </p>
<p>That makes them prone to crippling power outages in severe weather. </p>
<h2>4. Rebuilding better</h2>
<p>Puerto Rico lost all electricity again on April 18, seven months after Hurricane Maria first knocked out its power grid. Officials say even a minor storm with 74 mph wind speeds could disable the grid again this year.</p>
<p>Caribbean policymakers are looking for “<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-may-scuttle-caribbeans-post-hurricane-plans-for-a-renewable-energy-boom-94235">fast ways to strengthen their power grids</a>” with more durable energy sources, says Ashtine. But, in a Caribbean of increasing weather extremes, green energy systems are themselves vulnerable.</p>
<p>“Modern wind turbines, for example, were first engineered in Europe – a region that rarely experiences Category 5 hurricanes,” he writes. “Wind speeds above 165 mph would tear the turbines apart.”</p>
<p>Changing precipitation and temperature patterns in the Caribbean also affect hydro and solar power. More rain in the region’s north means fewer sunny days than anticipated. Higher temperatures in other countries suggests increased likelihood of drought, Ashtine says, leading rivers to run dry.</p>
<p>Climate change is also “profoundly unpredictable,” making it very hard for weather models to correctly identify which renewable energy infrastructure should be built where.</p>
<h2>5. Widespread concern</h2>
<p>This year’s hurricane season may well be severe. Scientists say storm intensity has been intensifying in recent years due to rising global temperatures.</p>
<p>Though people in the U.S. and the Caribbean share this increasing vulnerability to hurricanes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/caribbean-residents-see-climate-change-as-a-severe-threat-but-most-in-us-dont-heres-why-91049">they hold different opinions about the severity of climate change</a>, Vanderbilt University researchers Elizabeth Zechmeister and Claire Evans have found. </p>
<p>According to Vanderbilt’s latest AmericasBarometer survey, a biennial survey conducted in 29 Latin American and Caribbean countries, a strong majority of Caribbean residents perceive climate change as a “very serious” problem. In contrast, just 44 percent of U.S. residents do.</p>
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<p>Blame politics, say Zechmeister and Evans. In the United States, climate change is a partisan issue. In the Caribbean, it is not similarly politicized.</p>
<p>“The AmericasBarometer survey asked respondents in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica to place themselves on a scale that runs from the political left to the right,” they write. “We found no significant differences in opinions about climate change from people with different political views.”</p>
<p>People in the Caribbean are much more likely than those in the U.S. to perceive climate change-related disasters as a threat. Right now, that threat surely feels imminent.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The Caribbean braces for another hurricane season even as many nations remain crippled by the catastrophic damage of 2017. Here, experts assess the region’s difficult and costly storm recovery.Catesby Holmes, International Editor | Politics Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/955382018-05-31T13:46:13Z2018-05-31T13:46:13Z‘Land grab’ on hurricane-hit Barbuda could leave the island almost entirely owned by banks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220018/original/file-20180522-51130-gt391p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Irma_Barbuda_20171006_Bennylin_01.jpg">Bennylin / wiki</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hurricane Irma passed directly over the tiny Caribbean island of Barbuda in September 2017. Irma was the fifth strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, and it reached peak intensity just before landfall, when <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf">180mph winds</a> damaged almost every structure on the island, flattening many of them.</p>
<p>Just days later, a mere “normal” hurricane, Jose, also passed over Barbuda. By that point, almost all of the island’s 1,600 or so inhabitants and tourists had been <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/barbuda-hurricane-irma-300-years-no-one-living-ronald-sanders-gaston-browne-a7949421.html">evacuated to nearby Antigua</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda (the two islands jointly form a sovereign state), Gaston Browne, had an unusual reaction to the catastrophe. His first legislative response was not to set out a reconstruction plan or to provide funds for housing and essential services. Instead, he focused on <a href="https://antiguanewsroom.com/news/government-moving-to-give-barbudans-ownership-titles-to-land/">land reform</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220019/original/file-20180522-51135-1s7ho7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">September 8, 2017: Hurricane Irma (centre) has just passed over Cuba while Jose is approaching Barbuda from the east.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/127906254@N06/36989100461">US Navy</a></span>
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<p>The proposed <a href="http://legalaffairs.gov.ag/pdf/bills/BARBUDA_LAND_AMENDMENT_ACT_2017_REVISED.pdf">Barbudan Land Management (Amendment) Act</a>, announced by the prime minister right after the hurricanes and still <a href="https://antiguaobserver.com/dialogue-before-changing-the-law-says-opposition-leader/">being debated</a> in parliament, aims to introduce individual property rights on the island for the first time since its colonisation by the English in the 17th century. </p>
<p>Barbuda’s system of communal land ownership has been in place since slavery was abolished in 1834. Citizens do not own the land <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/usufruct">but have the right to use it</a> after applying to a locally-elected council. As one council member <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/global-development/la-fg-barbuda-land-dispute-20171009-story.html">put it</a>: “A cleaner can apply for beachfront property and get it, and so can a doctor. So there’s no great inequality in Barbuda.” Leases are possible with the approval of the cabinet and the consent of the majority of the people, but what matters most is that each Barbudan has a right to a plot for a house, a plot to farm, and a plot for commercial enterprise.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"905920082060161025"}"></div></p>
<p>This scenario has not avoided tensions, but has been described by many as <a href="https://landportal.org/blog-post/2017/10/land-rights-storm-brewing-barbuda">egalitarian and just</a>. However, the government sees it as an obstacle to foreign investment or loans. The prime minister appears to have swallowed the idea, linked to the influential Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, that <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-landrights-desoto/property-rights-for-worlds-poor-could-unlock-trillions-in-dead-capital-economist-idUKKCN10C1C1">property rights and foreign investment</a> are the key drivers of growth in developing economies. In this worldview, the island’s reconstruction and development can only be achieved with the intervention of the market, but banks and investors won’t be interested without the guarantee of a clearly identified property title. </p>
<p>The government therefore wants to impose a standardised and uniform property regime. It sees land rights, individual ownership and foreign investments as untriggered opportunities that must be offered to residents and foreigners in order to transform Barbudan land into an asset of the global financial market. Forget public money for reconstruction, forget <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-should-pay-for-damage-associated-with-climate-change-and-who-should-be-compensated-84028">polluting countries’ responsibilities for climate change</a> and forget the people’s right to be compensated for ecological and historical debts. In this view, the future of the island depends on individual debts and wealthy tourists. </p>
<h2>Taking advantage of a crisis</h2>
<p>All over the world, the idea of awakening sleepy capital through land reform and privatisation has entrenched inequality and concentrated land in fewer and fewer hands – even in places not affected by catastrophes and climate change. So its adoption in a situation like Barbuda <a href="https://rightsandresources.org/en/blog/land-rights-storm-brewing-barbuda/#.WtdZby7wZaQ">raises further concerns</a>.</p>
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<p>For example, some on the island have accused the government of <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/global-development/la-fg-barbuda-land-dispute-20171009-story.html">taking advantage of the hurricanes</a> to implement a shock doctrine that will favour local and international elites. The current system is egalitarian, they claim, while a market for property would inevitably gentrify and separate the community. To pick one high profile example, the backers of a proposed luxury resort – including Hollywood actor Robert De Niro – have been accused of exploiting the post-hurricane chaos to carry out a “<a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/robert-de-niro-barbuda-hotel-hurricane-irma/">land grab</a>”.</p>
<p>Other locals have raised the issue of <a href="https://antiguaobserver.com/amendments-of-barbuda-land-act-silence-locals/">legitimacy</a>: reform is being implemented without proper consultation and while most people are not even living on the island. This may make it harder for them to claim land or even a mere economic reimbursement. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220275/original/file-20180524-117628-1g2flg7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barbuda, two months after the hurricanes with blue tarps covering many roofs. Time for some land reform?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Jackson/PA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So who is set to benefit? The banks, for a start. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01436590701637334?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=ctwq20">Empirical studies</a> from many different countries have demonstrated that land titling does not guarantee access to credit – people may end up “owning” land only to find it is soon repossessed by a bank or public authorities.</p>
<p>It seems likely that Barbudans themselves will get squeezed by a growing appetite for their land and deprived of real control. At best, reform will still mean a very unequal distribution of properties, with elites concentrated along the best beaches and “quasi-slums” arising elsewhere. At worst, Barbudan land reform could lead to an island almost entirely owned by banks.</p>
<h2>Commons to commodity</h2>
<p>The situation is typical of what happens when land is transformed from a common good into private property. Once Barbudan land becomes a global commodity, enjoyed by tourists but mainly by the investors behind the resorts, those investors will demand unconstrained, cheap and formalised access to their land. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/220279/original/file-20180524-51130-n8jshf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now up for grabs?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BlueOrange Studio / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And what of informal rights, traditions, mandatory consultations and the link between a people and the island? Some will see them as obstacles to maximising a return on their investments. Unfortunately, these same obstacles are exactly what allowed Barbudans to construct a unique society where access to land for housing and agriculture is a right not a privilege.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tomaso Ferrando does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The whole island has been in common ownership for centuries, but foreign investors want individual property rights.Tomaso Ferrando, Lecturer in Law, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/910492018-02-14T11:34:48Z2018-02-14T11:34:48ZCaribbean residents see climate change as a severe threat but most in US don’t — here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206036/original/file-20180212-58322-hmro4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in the U.S. and the Caribbean share vulnerability to climate change-related disasters, but only in the Caribbean is the public truly worried. Why?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.doncio.navy.mil/FileHandler.ashx?id=10786">US Navy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 2017 <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season-finally-ends">Atlantic basin hurricane season</a>, six major storms – all of which were Category 3 or higher – produced devastating human, material and financial devastation across the southern United States and the Caribbean. </p>
<p>Last year’s above-average storm activity was foreseeable. Hurricane intensity ticked up in <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2016.pdf">2016</a> and scientists have predicted this trend will hold as <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php">global temperatures continue to rise</a>. </p>
<p>Though people in the U.S. and the Caribbean share this increasing vulnerability to hurricanes, they hold very different opinions about the severity of climate change. According to results from the latest <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">Vanderbilt University AmericasBarometer survey</a>, a strong majority of Caribbean residents perceive climate change as a “very serious” problem. In contrast, just 44 percent <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">of the U.S. public does</a>.</p>
<p>Why the difference of opinion? Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xwl-kqcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">research</a> identifies two key factors: politics and risk perception. </p>
<h2>Climate change is a partisan issue in the US</h2>
<p>The AmericasBarometer is a biennial survey conducted by Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project. The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">latest round</a> was conducted between 2016 and 2017 in 29 countries across the Americas.</p>
<p>The 10 Caribbean countries surveyed include <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-help-haitians-recover-from-the-mental-trauma-of-hurricane-matthew-66785">Haiti</a>, Dominica and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/nov/01/it-feels-like-dominica-is-finished-life-amid-the-ruins-left-by-hurricane-maria">Barbuda</a>, all hit hard by hurricanes in recent years. The survey found that between 56 percent and 79 percent of respondents in the Caribbean believe that climate change is a very serious problem for their country. </p>
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<p>Things look different in the United States, where the AmericasBarometer survey affirms <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801100104X">prior research</a> demonstrating that climate change is a partisan issue. More than three-quarters of individuals on the liberal side of the political spectrum reported that climate change is a very serious problem. </p>
<p>Less than 20 percent of those with conservative leanings expressed the same degree of concern. </p>
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<p>This pattern holds even when we control for age, education, income, gender and perceptions of disaster risk.</p>
<p>In the Caribbean, political leanings are far less consequential to people’s views of climate change. The AmericasBarometer survey asked respondents in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica to place themselves on a scale that runs from the political left to the right. We found no significant differences in opinions about climate change from people with different political views.</p>
<p>One explanation for why the Caribbean public demonstrates more of a consensus on climate change, then, is simply that the issue is not politicized in that region. People of all ideological bents agree that, in the Caribbean, climate change poses a very serious problem.</p>
<h2>Just how dangerous is climate change?</h2>
<p>People’s perceptions of their vulnerability to climate change-related dangers may also explain diverging views on the issue.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/">AmericasBarometer</a> asked respondents in both the Caribbean and <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights/IO929en.pdf">the United States</a> to assess the odds that they or a family member would be killed or seriously harmed by a natural disaster in the next 25 years. </p>
<p>In both places, those who feel most vulnerable to disasters more often report that climate change is a “very serious” problem. This relationship holds even when accounting for age, education, wealth, urban residence and gender.</p>
<p>Overall, though, in the U.S. people feel less exposed to hurricanes and other disasters than their Caribbean counterparts. In fact, most members of the U.S. public believe that personal harm from a future disaster is either “not likely at all” or “unlikely.”</p>
<p>Most people in the Caribbean, on the other hand, say it is “somewhat likely” or “very likely.” </p>
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<p>These notable differences may be due to geography. Because the Caribbean region is comprised of islands, a higher proportion of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf">communities there are coastal</a>. This, in turn, can increase the impact that storms have on residents. </p>
<h2>Climate change and hurricanes</h2>
<p>Some scientific consensus exists that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/">climate change can be blamed</a>, at least in part, for the hundreds of casualties and more than US$400 billion in damage that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/weather/hurricane-nate-maria-irma-harvey-impact-look-back-trnd/index.html">storms brought</a> to the U.S. and the Caribbean in 2017. </p>
<p>Scientific models indicate that the Earth’s warming climate is likely to shape future storm activity in the Atlantic basin. Scientists are not sure, however, exactly how this will manifest itself in future hurricane seasons. Some researchers suggest that warmer temperatures increase storm <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888/full">probability</a>. Others restrict the effects to storm <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00195.1">intensity</a>. </p>
<p>The 2018 hurricane season is just a few months away. Our research reveals that with politics removed and risk perceptions elevated, people in the Caribbean are bracing for whatever comes quite differently than their U.S. counterparts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth J. Zechmeister directs Vanderbilt's Latin American Public Opinion Project. In that capacity, her work has been supported by USAID, the Inter-American Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme and Open Society Foundations. Opinions expressed in this article belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the AmericasBarometer project or its funders.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Q. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research suggests politics and risk perception may explain why the US and Caribbean see climate change so differently, though both places are ever more vulnerable to powerful hurricanes.Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science and Director of LAPOP, Vanderbilt UniversityClaire Q. Evans, Doctoral Student, Political Science, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/861932018-01-25T11:39:01Z2018-01-25T11:39:01ZWhy climate change is worsening public health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202891/original/file-20180122-182968-19hqzwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People collect water piped in from a mountain creek in Utuado, Puerto Rico on Oct. 14, 2017, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans were still without running water. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Puerto-Rico-Environmental-Crisis/8caf29f0169c47fb8a4f96c3b9da51fb/175/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, the health care debate often revolves around access. </p>
<p>Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, recently announced: “All roads lead to universal health coverage.” Discussions for how to translate this vision into a road map for action is central to the agenda of the <a href="http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/EB142/B142_13-en.pdf">WHO’s executive board</a> meeting this week in Geneva. </p>
<p>Yet focusing on access is not enough. The imperative for access must be paired with a frank acknowledgment that climate change is making communities around the world more vulnerable to ill health. A <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)32464-9/fulltext?elsca1=tlpr">2017 commission of The Lancet</a>, a leading health research journal, tracked the effects of climate change on health and found evidence of harms “far worse that previously understood.”</p>
<p>Even as we move to close the access gap, a string of natural disasters in late 2017, including successive hurricanes and widespread forest fires, threaten to widen the vulnerability gap.</p>
<p>As a global health professional (Sosin) and a cultural anthropologist (Kivland), we have witnessed how the global exchange of health technology, expertise and aid has contributed to dramatic gains in the delivery of health care in Haiti and other settings, especially around infectious diseases. Yet climate change threatens to undermine the health gains in vulnerable communities across the globe. </p>
<p>As firsthand witnesses to sharp health disparities globally, we argue that world leaders need to insist that any health care strategy must address the social and environmental vulnerabilities driving poor health in the first place.</p>
<h2>The health burden of climate change</h2>
<p>Climate scientists argue that global warming is exacerbating extreme weather events. And natural disasters are often the source of health crises, particularly in fragile settings. Consider the case of Puerto Rico. The official death toll of the storm was estimated at 64; however, later reports have estimated that the disruption of health care services contributed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/08/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-death-toll.html">upwards of 1,052 deaths</a> on the island. </p>
<p>Lagging recovery efforts have exposed how natural disasters deepen the relationship between socio-economic inequality and health disparity. In Puerto Rico, <a href="https://www.puertoricoreport.com/how-mississippi-is-catching-up-and-puerto-rico-is-not/#.WfNWfEyZNE5">where poverty rates are double those of the poorest continental state</a>, <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article175955031.html">people already struggling with illnesses such as diabetes and kidney disease</a> have seen their conditions worsen as the long-crumbling health care system is overwhelmed with patients and neglected by the mainland government.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/flooding-from-hurricane-harvey-causes-a-host-of-public-health-concerns-83134">health impacts of the storms </a>may persist even beyond the restoration of health services.</p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey exposed the toxic afterlife of disastrous storms. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html?_r=0">Storm damage to 40 industrial sites</a> released chemical toxins linked to cellular damage, cancer and other long-term health problems. As <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health">The Lancet’s Commission on Pollution and Health</a> found, air, water and soil pollution is now the leading environmental cause of death and disability, accounting for more than 9 million deaths annually. These numbers will only grow in the face of climate-induced disasters.</p>
<p>Restoring health care systems is vital for these communities, but it will merely treat the symptoms and not the causes of post-disaster illness. We believe that policymakers must address the link between environmental and health crises.</p>
<h2>Haiti as case study</h2>
<p>We have learned this lesson from our work in Haiti. Once a death sentence in rural Haiti, today HIV is largely controlled thanks to widespread access to antiretroviral therapy. The prevalence of the disease in pregnant women fell from <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/31755066/ns/health-aids/t/haiti-surprise-good-news-about-aids/#.WfNXOEyZNE5">6 percent to just over 2 percent </a> in the 10-year period from 1993 to 2003. Likewise, vaccines against cholera, introduced in 2015,<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccine-haiti-cholera/">have proven to be up to 90 percent effective against the disease</a>.</p>
<p>However, even as vaccine coverage continues to grow, the population remains at risk for cholera and other emergent threats. Only 58 percent of the population has access to safe water and only 28 percent has access to <a href="https://www.globalwaters.org/WhereWeWork/LAC/Haiti">basic sanitation</a>. These conditions worsen in the wake of natural disasters. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/world/americas/cholera-haiti-hurricane-matthew.html">Hurricane Mathew in 2016</a> triggered spikes in cholera and other waterborne diseases, especially diarrhea, <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs330/en/">the second leading cause of death among children</a>.</p>
<p>Hitting the one region of Haiti that had not yet been denuded of trees and vegetation, Hurricane Matthew seemed to complete the destruction of the country’s food systems. </p>
<p>Since the late 1980s, the erosion of waterways, loss of habitats and destruction of agricultural land have fueled the importation of cheap, processed foods. Rice and pasta have replaced a diet once rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains. The high-sugar, low-nutrition foods contribute to the dual health burdens of obesity and under-nutrition. </p>
<p>These trends are ongoing, but they are <a href="https://health2016.globalchange.gov/">exacerbated by the disastrous shocks of extreme weather events</a>, which are made more likely by climate change. As Hurricane Matthew came ashore, it decimated fishing villages and tore through farming communities, killing livestock, uprooting crops and denuding backyard fruit trees. The United Nations estimated that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/a-month-after-hurricane-matthew-800000-haitians-urgently-need-food/2016/11/03/382cb2a6-9f74-11e6-8864-6f892cad0865_story.html?utm_term=.854ada106f6d">800,000</a> people suffered food shortages. </p>
<h2>Closing the vulnerability gap</h2>
<p>Haiti is often cast as behind the global curve. But as a reflection of the dangerous intersection of climate change, poverty and ill health, it is in fact predictive of what is to come in the rest of the world. Haiti teaches us that our own health is not bound up simply in the present decisions we make about health care systems but rather more broadly situated in the changing natural environment.</p>
<p>Closing the access gap has been a long battle and the gains cannot be underestimated. Yet the challenge ahead is even more daunting. Whereas increasing access has centered on extending health care technologies to underserved populations, closing the vulnerability gap will require approaches that extend beyond the health sector and national borders.</p>
<p>In the past year, the health care debate in the U.S. has centered on attempts to limit or expand access to care. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has left the Paris climate accord and unraveled environmental protections for national and transnational corporations – with little resistance from health advocates. We believe that leaders must recognize that environmental policy is health policy. Rollbacks of environmental regulations will cause far greater consequences on health, in the U.S. and globally, than any health care bill. </p>
<p>Fixing health care systems while we undermine the environmental conditions for health are a textbook example of what Haitians describe as “lave men, swiyè atè"—washing your hands but drying them in the dirt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change threatens to widen the health gap between the haves and have-nots. Here’s why addressing environmental issues that drive poor health is a starting point.Chelsey Kivland, Professor of Anthropology, Dartmouth CollegeAnne Sosin, Global Health Initiative Program Manager, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/887652017-12-28T21:43:41Z2017-12-28T21:43:41Z2017: the year in extreme weather<p>Overall 2017 will be the <a href="https://theconversation.com/2017-is-set-to-be-among-the-three-hottest-years-on-record-86934">warmest non-El Niño year on record</a> globally, and over the past 12 months we have seen plenty of extreme weather, both here in Australia and across the world. </p>
<p>Here I’ll round up some of this year’s wild weather, and look forward to 2018 to see what’s around the corner.</p>
<h2>Drought and flooding rains… again</h2>
<p>It feels as if Australia has had all manner of extreme weather events in 2017.
We had severe heat at both the start and end of the year. Casting our minds back to last summer, both <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-01/sydney-summer-the-hottest-on-record/8315672">Sydney</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-01/brisbane-summer-a-record-scorcher-bureau-meteorology-says/8314478">Brisbane</a> experienced their hottest summers on record, while parts of inland New South Wales and Queensland endured extended periods of very high temperatures.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-learned-a-lot-about-heatwaves-but-were-still-just-warming-up-68174">We've learned a lot about heatwaves, but we're still just warming up</a>
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<p>More recently Australia had an <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-dry-june-is-a-sign-of-whats-to-come-80469">unusually dry June</a> and its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-01/australia-winter-2017-was-hot-dry-and-a-record/8862856">warmest winter daytime temperatures</a> on record. The record winter warmth was made <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-record-breaking-winter-warmth-linked-to-climate-change-83304">substantially more likely by human-caused climate change</a>.</p>
<p>The end of the year brought more than its fair share of extreme weather, especially in the southeast. Tasmania had by far its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/tas/summary.shtml">warmest November on record</a>, beating the previous statewide record by more than half a degree. Melbourne had a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201711/html/IDCJDW3033.201711.shtml">topsy-turvy November</a> with temperatures not hitting the 20°C mark until the 9th, but a record 12 days above 30°C after that.</p>
<p>November was rounded off by <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-weather-record-rainfall-and-flash-flooding-to-kick-off-summer-20171129-gzvk4s.html">warnings for very severe weather</a> that was forecast to strike Victoria. Melbourne missed the worst of the rains, although it still had a very wet weekend on December 2-3. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-03/victoria-weather-rain-flood-warnings-in-place/9220896">northern parts of the state</a> were deluged, with many places recording two or three times the December average rainfall in just a couple of days.</p>
<h2>Hurricane after hurricane after hurricane…</h2>
<p>Elsewhere in the world there was plenty more headline-worthy weather.</p>
<p>The Atlantic Ocean had a particularly active hurricane season, with several intense systems. <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-hurricane-harvey-a-harbinger-for-houstons-future-83098">Hurricane Harvey struck Texas</a> and its slow trajectory resulted in record-breaking rainfall over Houston and neighbouring areas. </p>
<p>Then Hurricanes <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-irma-42848">Irma</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/hurricane-maria-43477">Maria</a>, both of which reached the strongest Category 5 status, brought severe weather to the Caribbean and southeastern United States just a couple of weeks apart. Island nations and territories in the region are <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41929287">still recovering</a> from the devastation.</p>
<p>Around the same time, the Indian subcontinent experienced a particularly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years">wet monsoon season</a>. Flooding in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years">killed more than 1,000 people</a> and affected tens of millions more.</p>
<p>Other parts of the world experienced their own severe weather events. Whether it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/southeast-europe-swelters-through-another-heatwave-with-a-human-fingerprint-82139">summer heat in Europe</a> or <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/11/us/california-fires-updates/index.html">wildfires in California</a>, 2017 dished up plenty of extremes.</p>
<p>In many cases, especially for heat extremes, we can <a href="https://theconversation.com/columns/andrew-king-103126">rapidly identify a human influence</a> and show that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of such events. </p>
<p>For other weather types, like the very active hurricane season and other extreme rain or drought events, it is harder (but <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change-89029">not always impossible</a>) to work out whether it bears the fingerprint of climate change.</p>
<h2>What’s in store for 2018?</h2>
<p>The main problem when trying to offer an outlook is that extreme weather is hard to predict, even on the scale of days or weeks in advance, let alone months.</p>
<p>For Australia, with a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">weak La Niña</a> in the Pacific, there are few clear indications of what the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">rest of the summer’s weather will bring</a>. There is a suggestion that we can expect a slightly wetter than average start to the year in parts of the southeast, along with warmer than average conditions for Victoria and Tasmania. Beyond that it is anyone’s guess.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-heat-even-our-spring-frosts-can-bear-the-fingerprint-of-climate-change-89029">Not just heat: even our spring frosts can bear the fingerprint of climate change</a>
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<p>The La Niña is also likely to mean that 2018 won’t be a record hot year for the globe. But it’s a safe bet that despite the La Niña, 2018 will still end up among the warmest years on record, alongside <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/">every other year this century</a>. Rising global average temperatures, along with our understanding of the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, are one of our clearest lines of evidence for human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>So it’s hard to say much about what extreme weather we’ll experience in 2018, other than to say that there’s likely to be plenty more weather news to wrap up in a year’s time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>2017 brought wild, wacky and even deadly weather. Australia was hit by heatwaves and torrential rains, plus some surprisingly cool spells. Hurricanes hit America, and a killer monsoon lashed Asia.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/874822017-11-22T01:46:20Z2017-11-22T01:46:20ZRebuilding the Caribbean will be pricey, but some are vying to finance its recovery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195759/original/file-20171121-6072-at6kae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Caribbean governments can't afford to rebuild their islands, maybe big tech firms can?</span> </figcaption></figure><p>November 20 marked the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, but for the Caribbean, it’s only the beginning of a painful recovery process. </p>
<p>In early September, Hurricane Irma largely destroyed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/07/irma-destruction-island-by-island-hurricane">Barbuda and several neighboring Lesser Antilles islands</a>. Two weeks later, Maria took a final fatal stab at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/barbuda-one-month-after-hurricane-irma-idUSRTS1FSDD">Barbuda</a> and entirely <a href="https://theconversation.com/puerto-rico-two-months-after-maria-5-essential-reads-87409">knocked out Puerto Rico</a>. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21729007-region-must-adapt-climate-change-not-simply-rebuild-how-hurricane-irma-will-change">The Economist</a>, damage from Irma alone tallies up to US$13 billion. Totals for the entire 2017 hurricane season <a href="https://qz.com/1088762/puerto-rico-hurricane-marias-devastating-economic-cost/">remain unclear</a>, but Puerto Rico Gov. Roberto Rosello’s recent request for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-puertorico-assistance/puerto-rico-requests-94-4-billion-from-u-s-congress-for-rebuilding-idUSKBN1DD2G8">$94.4 billion in aid</a> gives some sense of Maria’s toll. </p>
<p>No matter the final price tag, recovery is sure to be unpayable in a region where <a href="http://www.gsdrc.org/document-library/the-challenges-of-poverty-and-social-welfare-in-the-caribbean/">30 percent of people live in poverty</a> and the per capita <a href="http://ivanstat.com/en/gdp/caribbean.html">gross domestic product averages under $9,000 a year</a>, versus <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD">$57,000 in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>And while France, Holland and the United Kingdom have come to the <a href="https://epthinktank.eu/2017/09/21/eu-response-to-the-caribbean-hurricanes/">assistance of their territories</a> in the region, independent Caribbean nations like <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/20170929-dominica-rebuild-hurricane-maria-devastation-aid">Dominica</a>, Antigua and Barbuda, and Cuba have no such obvious sponsors. Their economies shattered by storms – and, in some cases, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/irma-imf-barduda-debt-repayments-moratorium-hurricane-caribbean-island-a7941176.html">shackled by debt</a> – some Caribbean nations fear they may never recover. </p>
<p>But behind the scenes, numerous international players are actually racing to rebuild the Caribbean, from tech companies and wealthy individuals to far-flung countries.</p>
<h2>‘Send Tesla’</h2>
<p>Big corporations see an opportunity in the Caribbean’s recovery. Tesla, in particular, seems to have a <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/10/05/elon-musk-tesla-rebuild-puerto-ricos-power-grid-batteries-solar/">vision</a> for how the region could rebuild in a more renewable and resilient way. </p>
<p>As an energy and environment researcher, I’m certain that renewables would make Caribbean islands better able to withstand future storm impacts. Whether Tesla can achieve that is another question. </p>
<p>The California-based electric-car company has committed to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/tesla-is-sending-battery-packs-to-storm-ravaged-puerto-rico">sending to the island hundreds of its Powerwall battery systems</a>, which could be paired with solar panels to get the electric grid up and running again. </p>
<p>For the millions of Puerto Ricans <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/26/us/puerto-rico-power-outage/index.html">whose power has been out for over two months</a>, this may come as welcome news. And though some experts have questioned <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-solar-microgrids-are-not-a-cure-all-for-puerto-ricos-power-woes-86437">how much it would really help</a>, Tesla did manage to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/25/560045944/tesla-turns-power-back-on-at-childrens-hospital-in-puerto-rico">turn the lights on</a> at the San Juan Children’s Hospital back in October.</p>
<p>Puerto Rico isn’t the only Caribbean country with an inadequate energy grid. Across the region, outmoded system designs that rely on a few plants for power production make complete blackouts much higher than grid systems that have an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/28/storm-driven-power-failures-in-the-caribbean-spur-new-interest-in-renewable-energy/?utm_term=.4ec6f8dd569a">even distribution of power generation</a>. </p>
<p>So even before Irma, Tesla had long seen the Caribbean as a nexus for its energy revolution, with <a href="http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/business/20160708/jamaica-public-service-seeking-forge-deal-tesla-electric-cars">talk</a> of using electric-vehicle batteries to store renewable energy. The idea is that vehicles can charge during the day when the sun is high and winds are stronger, and then owners can sell excess electricity back to the grid when demand is high but supplies are much lower.</p>
<p>Tesla’s desire to power the Caribbean reflects a global energy race as tech companies – among them <a href="http://www.samsungrenewableenergy.ca/">Samsung</a> and <a href="http://www.lg.com/global/business/solar">LG</a> – expand their international reach.</p>
<h2>The benevolent among us</h2>
<p>The British business magnate Sir Richard Branson, who owns a 30-hectare private island in the British Virgin Islands, has also long advocated that the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/02/25/richard-branson-launches-a-green-energy-plan-for-the-caribbean/">Caribbean should shift to clean energy</a>. </p>
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<p>The 2017 hurricane season catalyzed this ambition. After Irma, Branson suggested that rich countries fund a “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-branson/exclusive-richard-branson-setting-up-green-energy-fund-to-rebuild-caribbean-idUSKCN1BU2I9">Caribbean Marshall Plan</a>” to help islands move beyond fossil fuels toward low-carbon renewable energy sources like solar and wind. </p>
<p>Hurricane Irma left the solar-powered system on his Necker Island, located roughly nine miles from the ravaged Tortola, relatively intact. </p>
<p>Branson isn’t the only international celebrity with a personal stake in rebuilding the Caribbean region. The actor <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-irma-latest-today-robert-de-niro-barbuda-international-aid-rebuilding-caribbean-un-general-a7955501.html">Robert De Niro</a> has also sought to pitch in. </p>
<p>In September, he said he was “saddened to learn of the devastation in Barbuda,” and called on financial institutions and governments to band together and rebuild the demolished island, where De Niro had hoped to build a <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/15/news/robert-de-niro-barbuda/index.html">$200 million resort</a>. </p>
<p>Two months later, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/nov/20/the-night-barbuda-died-how-hurricane-irma-created-a-caribbean-ghost-town">Barbuda remains uninhabitable</a>, with nearly its entire population having <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172111522.html">evacuated</a> to neighboring Antigua and elsewhere. Locals wonder whether Barbuda will ever be home to anyone again, much less the paradise tourist destination De Niro once envisioned. </p>
<h2>The ‘soft’ grip of China</h2>
<p>For China, the crisis in the Caribbean is an opportunity to expand its influence in an area where it already has deep historic and <a href="https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/">economic</a> ties. </p>
<p>China’s influence in the Caribbean dates back to Cuba’s <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-2128-2_6">1959 revolution</a>, when communism bound the two nations. Back then, China ignored the U.S. economic embargo <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-2128-2_6">to help Cuba</a> after a 1963 hurricane.</p>
<p>This economic superpower also came to the assistance of Grenada in 2004, after more than 90 percent of the island was destroyed by Hurricane Ivan. The <a href="https://www.caribjournal.com/2013/04/17/china-providing-1-3-million-to-complete-grenada-housing-project/">351 housing units China promised to build for those left homeless by the storm</a> opened in late 2012. </p>
<p>Today, China is reported to have <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/23/c_136630837.htm">offered aid to Cuba after Hurricane Irma</a>. It has also committed <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/news-centre/announcements/2017/China-supports-Caribbean-countries-to-build-back-better.html">$5 million</a> for the United Nations Development Program to assist the Caribbean’s storm recovery. </p>
<p>China’s interest in the Caribbean goes beyond disaster aid. During his 2013 visit to Trinidad and Tobago, President Xi Jinping reportedly promised Caribbean nations a total of <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Staff%20Report_China-Caribbean%20Relations.pdf">$3 billion</a> in loans.</p>
<p>His country has also financed infrastructure and industrial projects across the region. In Jamaica, Chinese state money built the $600 million, 42-mile “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/24/beijing-highway-600m-road-just-the-start-of-chinas-investments-in-caribbean">Beijing Highway</a>” connecting Kingston to the tourist hub of Ocho Rios. China has also invested $3 billion in Jamaican <a href="http://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/infrastructure/chinese-firm-plans-us3bn-expansion-at-jamaica-alumina-plant2/">alumina plants</a>.</p>
<p>This brand of economic diplomacy, which Beijing has also deployed in <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f534aa4-4549-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996">Africa</a> and Pakistan, for instance, powerfully strengthens China’s international influence. The U.S. knows that, and <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Staff%20Report_China-Caribbean%20Relations.pdf">is keeping a close eye</a> on Chinese incursions into its maritime backyard.</p>
<h2>Weighing the costs</h2>
<p>Caribbean governments must now weigh the pros and cons of these different offers. On the one hand, these countries are so devastated that they simply cannot recover without help. </p>
<p>On the other, I’d suggest it’s risky to cede control over your territory by allowing foreign agents to finance rebuilding. China’s project funding in African has been dubbed “<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/why-chinese-infrastructural-loans-in-africa-represent-a-brand-new-type-of-neocolonialism/">neocolonialism</a>,” because while the country studiously avoids political meddling, its money shapes national development to reflect Chinese interests. </p>
<p>Inaction, however, is not an option. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/caribbean-islands-hurricane-irma-maria-puerto-rico">dozen Caribbean countries</a> were hit hard by hurricanes this year, and climate change <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/climate/islands-climate-change-un-bonn.html?_r=0">promises to keep bringing rising seas and stronger, more frequent storms</a>. </p>
<p>Rebuilding smarter is thus a priority for Caribbean nations, all of which signed the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">Paris Agreement</a>. That 2015 accord pushes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/climate/islands-climate-change-un-bonn.html?_r=0">wealthier industrialized nations to commit more money to building resilience</a>, but Europe has shown little willingness to comply with that provision and the U.S <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-paris-agreement-us-climate-change-donald-trump-world-country-accord-a8041996.html">is abandoning the entire deal</a>. </p>
<p>Are China, Tesla and Robert De Niro the answer? If the Caribbean can’t save itself, who will?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Masaō Ashtine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tesla, China and Richard Branson are among those offering to help Caribbean nations rebuild – and do so in a greener, more resilient way – after the devastating 2017 hurricane season.Masaō Ashtine, Lecturer in Alternative Energy, University of the West Indies, Mona CampusLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860362017-11-15T00:14:35Z2017-11-15T00:14:35ZWhy Puerto Rico is getting the brunt of ‘donor fatigue’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194425/original/file-20171113-27622-1d7mvz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Being one of a series of disasters made relief in Puerto Rico harder to come by after Hurricane Maria. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria-Shelter-Life/94af5b8794744d9cb0b49439c4068957/107/0">AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recovering from disasters is never easy. When disasters pile up, it gets harder.</p>
<p>On top of the inevitable competition for everything from the government’s funding for recovery efforts to construction materials, donations for relief operations dry up as givers develop what’s known as “<a href="http://blog.winspireme.com/16-fundraising-best-practices-for-preventing-donor-fatigue">donor fatigue</a>.” </p>
<p>While studying disaster relief and community resilience, I’ve learned that there are many factors shaping if and how much people give. I’ve also found that those decisions can have important consequences for communities affected by disasters. And when multiple devastating events occur around the same time, the strain on donors and responders takes a big toll.</p>
<h2>Donor fatigue</h2>
<p>When donors have already supported other relief efforts, they may feel that they either can’t or don’t need to give again. </p>
<p>Today, that means many people who supported recovery efforts after Hurricane Harvey or perhaps Hurricane Irma are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/10/04/puerto-rico-donations-lag-behind-fundraising-harvey-irma-victims-vegas-shooting/731955001/">not pitching in</a> to help Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>While the <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/media/press-releases">American Red Cross</a>, a leading relief nonprofit, said it had raised <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/American-Red-Cross-Issues-One-Month-Progress-Report-on-Relief-Response-for-Historic-Hurricane-Harvey">US$350 million for Hurricane Harvey</a> recovery efforts within a month, donations a month after <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/Hurricane-Irma-One-Month-Progress-Report-Details-American-Red-Cross-Relief-Efforts">Irma totaled only $56.4 million</a>. Red Cross donations amounted to just <a href="http://www.redcross.org/news/press-release/One-Month-Progress-Report-Highlights-American-Red-Cross-Response-to-Hurricane-Maria">$31.6 million a month after Maria</a>.</p>
<p>And that’s despite estimates that total losses for each of the three big hurricanes were staggering and ranked <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/hurricane-damage-economic-costs-4150369">among the highest ever registered</a>.</p>
<p>Texas alone suffered an estimated <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Abbott-weathering-political-storms-in-addition-to-12299718.php">$150 billion in damage</a> from Harvey. Irma may have wrought as much as <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-economic-cost-of-harvey-irma-to-be-290-billion/70002686">$100 billion</a> in damage, and for Puerto Rico, Maria’s price tag may ultimately total some <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/puerto-rico-faces-cash-shortfall-hurricane-maria-50839504">$95 billion</a>. </p>
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<p>The ways people tend to give after disasters – such as a preference for <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-giving-cash-not-clothing-is-usually-best-after-disasters-83405">in-kind donations</a> like clothing and food and tying strings to cash – can also magnify the damage done by donor fatigue. </p>
<p>Giving things as opposed to cash may make donors feel like they’re making a concrete difference or make them more confident that their contribution will be put to a specific good use. But sending cases of bottled water or bales of diapers on long trips rarely helps as much as just giving money. It’s expensive and inefficient, and there is bound to be a mismatch between these items and what people on the ground actually need.</p>
<p>In-kind donations can also get stranded. Unused goods, like cases of peanut butter or blankets, either get put to a nonemergency use or sent to another location. When the latter happens, that means the water bottles, blankets or other things take extra trips – becoming more expensive by the time they make it to, say, a Puerto Rican mountaintop village.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194426/original/file-20171113-27585-1avvv2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These cases of bottled water were donated for the Empire State Relief and Recovery Effort for Puerto Rico in September.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Hurricane-Maria-New-York-Connection/0d0cca3f42f34669a37cae9bae58aed7/17/0">AP Photo/Julie Jacobson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, it can cause more harm than good when donors demand that the money they give be used in a specific way.</p>
<p>For example, some people stipulate that their monetary donations slated for, say, Hurricane Harvey survivors in Houston, Texas, must be used only for that purpose. That common and longstanding practice often prevents disaster relief groups from <a href="https://learn.guidestar.org/news/news-releases/2010/guidestar-urges-donors-not-to-restrict-nonprofits-when-giving-to-disaster-re">using that money elsewhere</a>.</p>
<p>This restriction distorts the ability of nonprofits to do their best to help the victims of more recent disasters, I’ve heard from people who worked for disaster relief organizations while doing my research.</p>
<p>Cash donations without constraints give relief groups the most flexibility, which helps temper the impact of donor fatigue in subsequent emergencies. </p>
<p>I find the lagging donations for Irma and Maria troubling because with few exceptions, most donations to support disaster relief are made within a few weeks of hurricanes, earthquakes or other devastating events. </p>
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<h2>Government funding fatigue</h2>
<p>Another problem that arises when disasters bunch up is that the government itself can’t keep up with demand for the funds it reserves for relief work.</p>
<p>The budget for what’s known as the the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Disaster Relief Fund</a> is largely based on the average of the previous decade of disaster spending. While structured to accommodate the unpredictability of the number and cost of events, years with a particularly catastrophic event – or multiple major disasters – can drain this budget. In those cases, the government can’t fully fund disaster response work unless <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42352.pdf">Congress passes legislation allocating more money</a> and the president signs off.</p>
<p>Because dealing with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/09/08/549279078/with-harvey-and-now-irma-federal-funds-and-fema-are-put-to-the-test">Hurricane Harvey</a> had largely depleted these disaster funds before Hurricanes Irma and Maria even made landfall, Trump approved an additional <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357404-trump-signs-365b-disaster-relief-package">$36.5 billion</a> in a relief package.</p>
<p>But costs from these disasters are so high that this new allocation may not suffice. In addition, the funding includes $16 billion for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-insurance-is-broken-here-are-some-ways-to-fix-it-83769">National Flood Insurance Program</a>, which is not enough to to make up for its <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001/">$25 billion debt</a> that began piling up after Hurricane Katrina.</p>
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<h2>Even more disasters</h2>
<p>Compounding the problem is that Houston, Tampa, San Juan and <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-wildfires-leave-lasting-economic-scars-on-californias-vital-wine-country-86174">California’s wine country</a> aren’t the only communities struggling to get back on their feet.</p>
<p>In the middle of this busy hurricane and wildfire season, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-road-to-recovery-after-quakes-is-far-longer-than-it-looks-84479">Mexico was rocked by two earthquakes</a> – one of which also caused major damage in Guatemala. In South Asia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-himalayan-floods-are-made-worse-by-an-international-blame-game-83103">Bangladesh, India and Nepal were swamped</a> by extreme flooding.</p>
<p>At the same time, crises created through politics and war need donor aid too. Violence across the Middle East is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-have-4-8-million-syrian-refugees-gone-57968">uprooting millions of people</a> in that region, many of whom have nowhere to go as anti-refugee fervor heats up around the world. And hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-anyone-protect-the-rohingya-85809">Rohingya refugees</a> have fled persecution in Myanmar.</p>
<p>Just like when multiple disasters occur within a country, simultaneous crises across the globe create competition for relief resources on an international scale.</p>
<p>The good news is that there are some creative ways to combat donor fatigue and boost giving – even after relief donations usually dry up. For instance, musical theater superstar <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lin-manuel-miranda-brings-help-hope-to-puerto-rico/">Lin-Manuel Miranda</a> will reprise his signature role as Alexander Hamilton in 2019 in San Juan to raise money for Puerto Rican disaster relief while lifting local spirits.</p>
<p>It’s also not too late for the federal government to dedicate additional funding to help fill the gaps that remain. And there’s still time for everyone to make a difference by making monetary donations that give relief organizations the freedom to use those funds where they are needed the most.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"928349595385638912"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Penta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Charitable giving and government aid can shortchange disasters that follow other disasters.Samantha Penta, Assistant Professor, College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security and Cybersecurity, University at Albany, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/862622017-10-25T23:39:12Z2017-10-25T23:39:12ZWhy Puerto Rico ‘doesn’t count’ to the US government<p><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/puerto-rico-recovery/index.html">Hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated</a> Puerto Rico in September, destroying homes, crops and communications. Many weeks later, power had only been restored to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/puerto-rico-takes-steps-boost-electric-power-next-week-n811561">fewer than 20 percent of homes</a>. A <a href="http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/g13052618/puerto-rico-maria-damage/?slide=7">third of the population</a> lacked reliable drinking water.</p>
<p>I am an economist and have followed the hurricanes’ impact with great interest because my sister lives in Puerto Rico. She was off the island and preparing to fly back when Irma hit. Her friends in Puerto Rico all tell her the same message: “Don’t come back now.” </p>
<p>I began wondering: If the damage is that great, how much will overall U.S. gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation be affected by the devastation in Puerto Rico?</p>
<p>The answer surprised me: not at all.</p>
<h2>Tracking Puerto Rico</h2>
<p>U.S. government statistics generally do not include Puerto Rico’s numbers in national totals, even when they track them.</p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Census Bureau has tallied <a href="https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/GARM/Ch7GARM.pdf">Puerto Rico’s population</a> since 1910. It even <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2016_PEPANNRES&src=pt">lists the island’s almost 4 million people</a> alongside the populations of the 50 states. However, the island’s inhabitants are not counted among the total <a href="https://www.census.gov/popclock/">326 million</a> in the United States – unless <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/10/13/557108484/-get-us-out-of-here-amid-broken-infrastructure-puerto-ricans-flee-to-florida">they move to the mainland</a>.</p>
<p>One of a country’s most important statistics is gross domestic product, or GDP, which estimates the size of its economic pie. The U.S. Commerce Department’s <a href="https://bea.gov/">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a> tracks U.S. GDP at a detailed geographic level. If you want to know the <a href="https://bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/2017/pdf/gdp_metro0917.pdf">GDP of Oshkosh</a>, Wisconsin (US$10 billion in 2016), or Altoona, Pennsylvania ($5 billion), the government has you covered.</p>
<p>What the bureau doesn’t track is Puerto Rico’s GDP. This is particularly strange since <a href="https://www.bea.gov/national/gdp_territory.htm">it does keep tabs</a> on the GDP of four smaller U.S. territories, publishing annual figures for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa and the Mariana Islands. The <a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/general/2010/territory_0310.htm">press release</a> discussing GDP in these territories does not explain why Puerto Rico isn’t on the list.</p>
<p>One reason might be that Puerto Rico <a href="http://www.gdb-pur.com/economy/statistical-appendix.html">calculates its own numbers</a>. However, it does not compute GDP, like the mainland. Instead, the island estimates GNP, gross national product. While the two figures sound alike, <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/what-functional-difference-between-gdp-and-gnp.asp">they are not comparable</a>. </p>
<p>GNP measures what Puerto Ricans produce no matter where they live. This means it includes a Puerto Rican resident of New York City who builds houses, for example. GDP tracks what is produced within a country’s borders irrespective of citizenship or immigration status of the worker. For the U.S., this means GDP includes the many Mexicans who work in California’s farms and vineyards.</p>
<p>No matter what the reason, not counting Puerto Rico’s GDP means the territory is not considered part of the U.S. economic pie, which means most people on the mainland will remain unaware of how the devastation there is affecting the economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191966/original/file-20171026-28083-13yab39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many shops remain closed and without power more than a month after Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico. The impact on the economy and upcoming tourist season is unknown but won’t make a dent in U.S. data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Carlos Giusti</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unemployment and prices</h2>
<p>Important unemployment and inflation data are produced by the U.S. Department of Labor’s <a href="https://www.bls.gov/">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>. Both figures are vital to understanding if people have jobs and how much it costs to live in any given community.</p>
<p>Like population, the bureau calculates <a href="https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pr.htm">unemployment figures for Puerto Rico.</a> Each month the bureau releases a national figure, whose <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w8092">rise and fall often moves financial markets</a>. However, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf">Puerto Rican numbers are not included when calculating the national total</a>. This means the hurricanes’ destruction of jobs and businesses will have no impact on U.S. unemployment rates and will be overlooked by traders and most people.</p>
<p>Hurricanes Irma and Maria have also <a href="http://caribbeanbusiness.com/puerto-rico-govt-receives-over-150-complaints-of-price-gouging-after-hurricane-maria/">raised the price of food and other necessities</a> on the island. But again, the increased costs of living <a href="https://www.bls.gov/bls/hurricanes-harvey-irma-maria.htm">will have no effect</a> on U.S. mainland inflation, since none of the 87 cities where the government gathers prices is in Puerto Rico. </p>
<p>An interesting side note is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics classifies the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico as <a href="https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-york-new-jersey/home.htm">part of its New York-New Jersey region</a> (along with the Virgin Islands). The point of these regional offices is to provide an economic view of one area. This makes it odd that Puerto Rico is not part of a geographically closer region like the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/florida.htm">Southeast</a>, which includes Florida.</p>
<h2>A snub and a silver lining</h2>
<p>In terms of key economic statistics, Puerto Rico doesn’t count to the United States. This is strange since Congress made all <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/puerto-ricans-become-u-s-citizens-are-recruited-for-war-effort">Puerto Ricans U.S. citizens</a> 100 years ago.</p>
<p>The Central Intelligence Agency illustrates this distinction nicely in its amazing statistical resource known as the <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/">CIA World Factbook</a>. The factbook provides a fast and simple method of tracking key statistics needed to understand the political, economic and military capability of every country that is part of the United Nations, plus 75 other areas like Antarctica and Gibraltar. </p>
<p>Naturally the CIA has <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html">an entry for the U.S.</a> It also has a separate <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/rq.html">one for Puerto Rico</a>, which its analysts described as “a self-governing commonwealth in political association with the U.S.”</p>
<p>Exclusion or inclusion in key economic statistics is important. Being excluded means politicians in Washington have less incentive to fix Puerto Rico’s economic problems. No matter how bad the economic situation becomes on the island, exclusion means there is no impact on U.S. national statistics that could swing an election. And Puerto Ricans, living on the island, <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/puerto-rico-matters-in-presidential-election-3322127">have no say</a> in the U.S. general presidential election.</p>
<p>If there’s a silver lining to being snubbed by the U.S. government, it’s being equally ignored by the Internal Revenue Service. Puerto Rican residents of the island do not have to pay <a href="http://www.gdb-pur.com/economy/puerto-rico-facts.html">U.S. federal income taxes on their earnings</a>. So at least there is one upside to being overlooked by Washington – though it’s not much help since Puerto Ricans are seeing their earnings plummet in the wake of two catastrophic hurricanes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Although Puerto Ricans are American citizens, what happens on the island tends to stay there, at least in terms of economic data.Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/856622017-10-18T23:38:55Z2017-10-18T23:38:55ZIs racial bias driving Trump’s neglect of Puerto Rico?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190637/original/file-20171017-30381-1yl5273.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">He didn't throw paper towels in Texas. Why Puerto Rico?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The morning after Hurricane Maria blasted through Puerto Rico, I emailed my aunt to ask if she was safe. That was Sept. 21. I heard back from her on Oct. 10. She was fine, she assured me, but “Puerto Rico is destroyed.” After that, my tia and I again lost contact; her email had come through during a brief moment of cell service. </p>
<p>Nearly a month after the hurricane, Puerto Rico still is still struggling with a near-total information blackout. Some <a href="http://www.latimes.com/visuals/framework/la-na-puerto-rico-unfurled-timeline-20171013-htmlstory.html">85 percent of the island lacks electricity</a>, and several remote mountain communities have yet to be visited by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/us/puerto-rico-doctors-storm.html">relief workers</a>. </p>
<p>The death toll has risen from <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/puerto-rico-recovery/index.html">16 to nearly 50</a> as lack of fuel, food shortages and infectious illnesses <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-letting-americans-die-puerto-rico-684468">take their toll</a>. Over <a href="http://latinousa.org/2017/10/12/117-people-listed-missing-puerto-rico-since-hurricane-maria-hit-island/">100 people are still missing</a>.</p>
<p>The island is so crippled in part thanks to the federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/need-another-reason-to-help-puerto-rico-its-a-key-us-economic-and-military-asset-85453">underwhelming early hurricane response</a>. The historic storm played its role, of course, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-stranded.html">destroying homes, triggering mudslides and rendering roadways impassable</a>.</p>
<p>But the Trump administration delayed dispatching military personnel and material relief <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/delayed-response-puerto-rico-has-echoes-katrina-some-n805861">until after the hurricane made landfall</a>, and let <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dhs-will-let-jones-act-waiver-for-puerto-rico-expire/">the Jones Act waiver lapse</a>, reducing the number of ships that can bring aid to the island. These actions have slowed recovery considerably.</p>
<p>Numerous commentators – including <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/delayed-response-puerto-rico-has-echoes-katrina-some-n805861">Ret. Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré</a>, who ran the U.S. military’s 2005 Hurricane Katrina relief operation – have criticized the Trump administration’s Puerto Rico storm response. Others have <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hurricane-response-puerto-rico-texas-florida-harvey-maria-irma-683534">contrasted</a> it with the all-hands-on-deck support seen by Harvey and Irma victims in Texas and Florida. </p>
<p>Based on my experience researching equity and inclusion in U.S. policy, racial bias may explain these disparate relief efforts, at least in part. Environmental disasters lay bare <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244013489684">existing inequalities</a> like prejudice and poverty. So in a place like Puerto Rico, where nearly 99 percent of the <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF">population</a> is Latino, discriminatory decision-making can hurt the community’s capacity to recover.</p>
<h2>An unflattering comparison</h2>
<p>In Texas and Florida, the president responded swiftly, visiting these southern states in <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hurricane-response-puerto-rico-texas-florida-harvey-maria-irma-683534">a matter of days</a>. In Puerto Rico, on the other hand, President Trump arrived to survey the wreckage two weeks after Maria struck. </p>
<p>Likewise, while the president <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hurricane-response-puerto-rico-texas-florida-harvey-maria-irma-683534">vowed</a> to stand with Texas and Florida “every single day” to help them “restore, recover and rebuild,” he seemed to mock Puerto Ricans’ plight at an Oct. 6 <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/10/06/donald-trump-celebrates-hispanic-heritage-month-by-mocking-puerto-rico-in-spanish/">Hispanic Heritage Month</a> event. </p>
<p>Most recently, Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/10/12/trump-warns-puerto-rico-we-cannot-keep-fema-the-military-the-first-responders-forever/?utm_term=.e70273a4bd5b">even threatened</a> to withdraw federal aid from Puerto Rico altogether, even though some communities have yet to see a penny. </p>
<p>There is empirical evidence that skin color impacts federal assistance. A <a href="https://pcl.stanford.edu/research/2007/iyengar-katrina-cues.pdf">2007 study</a> performed by researchers at Stanford and UCLA found that Americans are less willing to support extensive taxpayer-funded disaster relief when the victim population is not white. </p>
<p>Signs of racial bias in the current federal relief efforts go beyond Puerto Rico. The U.S. Virgin Islands, where 98 percent of the <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_VISF_P3&prodType=table">population</a> identifies as black or of African ancestry, were also battered by both Hurricanes Irma and Maria, leaving residents “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/us/virgin-islands-irma.html">in survival mode</a>.” The Trump administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/opinion/irma-virgin-islands-damage.html?_r=0">has also largely ignored</a> their suffering. </p>
<h2>Separate and unequal</h2>
<p>There are likely other explanations for why America’s Caribbean citizens are <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/355112-puerto-rico-gov-we-are-requesting-the-support-that-any-of-our">seeing such disparate post-storm treatment</a>.</p>
<p>One is political clout. These two U.S. territories were inevitably facing an uphill disaster recovery process because – unlike Texas and Florida – Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands <a href="https://newrepublic.com/minutes/145030/trump-looking-excuse-not-fund-puerto-ricos-recovery">don’t have representatives</a> defending their interests in Congress. </p>
<p>Partisanship is another likely factor. Facing <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/trumps-low-approval-ratings-set-unwanted-record/">historic disapproval ratings</a>, President Trump’s agenda has also narrowed toward <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-analysis/in-a-sudden-flurry-trump-looks-to-deliver-for-his-voters-idUSKBN1CI32X">rallying his base</a>. It’s predictable, then, that the president worked diligently to help Texas and Florida – states that <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/10/14/david_brooks_trump_treating_puerto_ricans_differently_because_they_dont_look_like_the_people_in_texas.html">supported him</a> in 2016 – while neglecting Caribbean residents, who cannot vote in a presidential election.</p>
<p>But I would contend that the differential post-hurricane treatment transcends these political disadvantages and reflects racial bias.</p>
<p>Throughout the disaster relief effort, President Trump’s rhetoric has highlighted just how different Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are from mainland America. He has called the islands’ leadership <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/us/politics/trump-puerto-rico-mayor.html">“poor” and “opportunistic”</a> and blamed Puerto Ricans for the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/donald-trump-puerto-rico-tweets/index.html">financial crisis that’s now confounding the island’s recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Trump has also railed on Puerto Ricans for “wanting everything to be done for them” and failing to <a href="http://time.com/4963903/donald-trump-puerto-rican-leaders-want-everything-to-be-done-for-them/">contribute more to the relief efforts</a>. According to the president, not aid workers but Puerto Ricans themselves should be out <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/16/politics/donald-trump-puerto-rico-water-distribution/index.html">distributing food and water</a>. I have spent a decade studying urban policy toward communities of color, so <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/jennifer-saul/donald-trump-racial-figle_b_9033224.html">coded</a> language like this <a href="https://www.propublica.org/series/segregation-now">raises red flags</a> for me.</p>
<p>It is especially concerning given President Trump’s own problematic history dealing with race. On the campaign trail <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trump-says-black-lives-matter-movement-looking-trouble">he antagonized the Black Lives Matter movement</a>, and as president <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/trump-defends-white-nationalist-protesters-some-very-fine-people-on-both-sides/537012/">he defended the violence of white supremacists in Charlottesville</a>.</p>
<h2>Flint lives matter</h2>
<p>Recent U.S. history also offers examples suggesting that communities of color are neglected when disaster hits. </p>
<p><a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244013489684">New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina</a> is the classic case study. After the city’s evacuation plan failed, black Americans were left stranded and desperate for <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/storm/etc/cron.html">up to 14 days</a> while the federal government’s <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/08/hurricane_katrina_10th_anniversary_how_the_black_lives_matter_movement_was.html">belated and dysfunctional rescue operation</a> flailed.</p>
<p>Assessing the situation, rapper Kanye West famously went off script at a live fundraiser for hurricane victims, declaring, “<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/27/_george_bush_doesn_t_care_about_black_people_how_kanye_west_s_katrina_moment.html">George Bush doesn’t care about black people</a>.” </p>
<p>More recently, in April 2014, residents of Flint, Michigan, a predominantly black community, began falling ill after the <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/09/daily-chart-18">highly contaminated Flint River</a> became their only water source. Community members raised concern about the foul-smelling water coming out of their faucets, and doctors alerted state and federal officials about elevated lead levels in the water. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190641/original/file-20171017-30379-1yhmafy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Michigan, it didn’t go without saying that ‘Flint Lives Matter.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even so, state officials did not acknowledge Flint’s crisis until <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/09/flint-had-a-lead-crisis-in-its-water-now-it-has-a-fertility-crisis/">September 2015</a>, after 91 residents had been diagnosed with waterborne bacterial illnesses. And only this year did <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/us/flint-water-lead-pipes.html">the city finally agree to replace their water lines</a>. The city won’t have clean water until 2020. </p>
<p>In short, though environmental disasters don’t see race, people do – and <a href="http://prospect.org/article/harvey-not-natural-disaster">if bias influences the decision-making of those in power</a>, survivors will feel it. </p>
<p>Puerto Rico’s demographics diverge from that of the <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216">U.S. general population</a>, where just 18 percent of people identify as Latino and 13 percent as black. President Trump’s behavior seems to reflects that racial difference, whether he knows it or not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Lluveras does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Evidence shows that US taxpayers are less willing to support extensive disaster relief when the victims are not white. Could that explain the Trump administration’s lackluster support for Puerto Rico?Lauren Lluveras, PhD candidate in African & African Diaspora Studies, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/854182017-10-18T11:45:59Z2017-10-18T11:45:59ZHere’s how citizen scientists assisted with the disaster response in the Caribbean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190810/original/file-20171018-32345-13gi3sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1333%2C0%2C2692%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nyng/36776009450/sizes/l">New York National Guard/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The post-disaster environment poses immense challenges for crisis response teams tasked with assessing the extent of the damage as quickly as possible, often over thousands of square miles. These teams need a sound and reliable understanding of the situation on the ground, to quickly and safely provide the right help to the people affected. </p>
<p>Citizen scientists from around the world can play a key role in delivering this information to emergency responders on the ground. In the wake of hurricanes Irma and Maria, which swept across the Caribbean during September 2017, an ongoing collaboration between <a href="https://www.zooniverse.org/">the Zooniverse</a> (an online citizen science platform), <a href="http://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/%7Eparg/">the University of Oxford</a>, and NGO <a href="http://www.rescueglobal.org/">Rescue Global</a>, has enlisted thousands of volunteers worldwide to analyse satellite-based information. </p>
<p>The end result is a series of maps that highlight affected areas, providing a robust source of information which helps Rescue Global and the disaster relief community to generate more detailed mapping, and conduct needs assessments, aid deliveries and evacuations on the ground.</p>
<h2>Rapid response</h2>
<p>When Rescue Global began their Hurricane Irma response operation in early September, the <a href="https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/vrooje/planetary-response-network-and-rescue-global-caribbean-storms-2017">Planetary Response Network</a>, a collaboration between the
Zooniverse and Oxford University, was activated quickly and began sourcing satellite images of the disaster-affected areas from data providers <a href="https://www.planet.com/">Planet</a>, <a href="https://www.digitalglobe.com/">Digital Globe</a>, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov">NASA</a> and <a href="http://www.esa.int/ESA">ESA</a>.</p>
<p>Next, they issued a shout-out to their existing network of past and present volunteers. A call to action was also distributed by Rescue Global together with the University of Oxford, who were able to rally a large and diverse audience through their social media channels. The initial campaign was so successful that the first set of data was classified in just two hours.</p>
<p>The volunteers analyse a series of “before” and “after” satellite images of the islands damaged by the hurricanes, to identify a number of pre-selected features. These include damaged buildings, areas of flooding, blocked roads, rubbish heaps and new, temporary settlements that may indicate displaced or homeless populations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190814/original/file-20171018-32370-1o9s03a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Citizen scientists identify damaged areas in Dominica, following Hurricane Maria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rescueglobal.org/hurricane-irma-and-hurricane-maria-damage-assessments">Rescue Global</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This process happened in real time during the relief operation. New satellite image sets were being released regularly. Depending on the changing response priorities, the Planetary Response Network team could select which sets required urgent analysis, immediately load them onto the Zooniverse platform and launch a fresh call for volunteers.</p>
<h2>A joint effort</h2>
<p>After each round of analysis is complete, the Machine Learning Research Group at Oxford runs the results through machine learning algorithms. These algorithms can quickly resolve inconsistent responses, bring all the data together and integrate information derived from other crowdsourced mapping sources, such as the <a href="https://www.hotosm.org/">Humanitarian Open Street Map</a> and <a href="https://www.tomnod.com/">Tomnod</a>. </p>
<p>This approach increases the reliability of the information gathered and generates high quality intelligence that is accurate enough to inform targeted relief efforts. It allows the team to build impact “<a href="http://www.rescueglobal.org/hurricane-irma-and-hurricane-maria-damage-assessments">heat maps</a>”, which highlight areas where features such as flooding and damaged buildings have been consistently identified by the crowd. </p>
<p>These maps enable Rescue Global to better understand the situation on the ground. This is crucial when it comes to drawing up evidence-based plans for critical needs assessments, extensive aerial and ground reconnaissance missions, the successful delivery of aid and satellite communications and for conducting medical evacuations.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/237666542" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This information helps to keep response teams safe, while enabling them to reach areas in urgent need of assistance. The maps are shared widely among the disaster response community, forming part of a suite of intelligence and assessment material from various sources working on the response. </p>
<h2>A better future</h2>
<p>Over a month has now passed since Rescue Global deployed to the Caribbean, and the Planetary Response Network began mapping the region. By the time Hurricane Maria made landfall in Dominica on September 18, Zooniverse volunteers had classified nine different image sets from all over the Caribbean, as well as additional images of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the US and British Virgin Islands, Antigua and Barbuda. </p>
<p>Over the course of the last three and a half weeks, the time volunteers have spent classifying features has amounted to roughly eight months’ worth of continuous human effort. To put that into perspective; if you hired one person full-time to complete that amount of work, it would take them almost three years.</p>
<p>These tools have been refined over several years, having been used previously to assist Rescue Global in its response to the 2015 Nepal and 2016 Ecuador earthquakes. Now, the platform is being made more adaptable, so it can cope with multiple sudden-onset hazards. </p>
<p>Its flexibility is also being enhanced, so that it’s better able to forecast damage before it even occurs. For example, before post-Maria satellite images were even released, the pre-Irma and Maria images were processed and the machine learning folded in building information from Open Street Maps. In a matter of hours, the network produced maps of the projected damage to aid preemptive response planning.</p>
<p>Reducing risk, building resilience and responding more effectively to disasters all require forward planning. And now, as evidence-based decision making is becoming ever more important for humanitarians, this new technology has the potential to shape a better future for disaster management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebekah Yore receives funding from Rescue Global. </span></em></p>With this technology, citizen scientists could even help to predict the damage caused by future disasters.Rebekah Yore, PhD Candidate in Disaster Risk Reduction, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/848542017-10-06T14:36:16Z2017-10-06T14:36:16ZHow a billion-dollar insurance industry protects Florida’s risky real estate game – for now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189181/original/file-20171006-25779-1r5u44a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cawayne/4839985336/sizes/l">cawayne/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After dodging the worst of Hurricane Irma, Florida’s coastal <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/florida-flood-irma-growth-.html">real estate boom</a> shows no signs of slowing. In Miami and nearby waterfront cities, a survey of local records show that more than 90 luxury high-rise apartment blocks are under construction or have been completed since 2015, increasingly financed by <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/05/31/miami-real-estate-foreigner-money/26245513/">overseas investors</a> looking for “safe” opportunities in a turbulent global economy. </p>
<p>Yet, since 1886, the Sunshine State has been hit with almost twice as many hurricanes as the next two states, Texas and Louisiana. Currently, 2.4m people and 1.3m homes sit just <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/floria-and-the-rising-sea">1.2 metres above</a> the high tide line and sea levels are expected to rise up to two metres by the end of the century. </p>
<p>What enables Florida’s staggering growth against environmental odds? The answer, in part, comes down to how property insurance protects the state’s real estate against disasters. In 2015, Floridians spent <a href="https://www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/93160/20160331+Market+Share+Report/ab841adc-d5fb-45ca-bff6-8dbd15d5cac5">US$10.8 billion on homeowners’ insurance</a> to protect more than 6m properties. The total insured value protected by the state’s homeowners’ market is a soaring $2.1 trillion, roughly equal to the annual economic output of India. </p>
<p>I have dedicated the past three years to researching how this massive market works – and whether it can really sustain Florida’s real estate boom in the long run.</p>
<h2>From risk to reward</h2>
<p>Property insurance balances Florida’s unusually high vulnerability to natural disasters against the growth pressures of the state’s real estate and construction industry. By requiring property insurance to protect loans, US mortgage lenders and investors have created a massive insurance market in Florida – and a costly necessity for property owners.</p>
<p>The global insurance-linked securities (ILS) industry plays an increasingly important part in this story, converting Florida’s hurricane risk into an attractive financial asset class. </p>
<p>The catastrophe bond – the most widely used ILS product – was created after Hurricane Andrew’s Miami landfall devastated Florida’s homeowners’ insurance industry in 1992. “Cat bonds” and other types of “alternative” insurance turn investment capital – from pension funds and other firms – into reinsurance, or insurance for insurers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189182/original/file-20171006-25772-1xq9zmu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A perfect storm?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lilith121/311708470/sizes/l">Lilith121/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here’s how ILS works: insurance companies send a portion of the premium they collect from property owners to special trust companies in tax-friendly nations such as Bermuda, which then raise money from investors, who agree to repay a given range of losses if disaster strikes. And if not, investors walk away with the property owner’s premium, plus a tidy profit.</p>
<p>This complex financial market provides nearly <a href="http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/sitepages/display.aspx?tl=687">US$90 billion of protection</a> worldwide. Large institutions ranging from the World Bank to the Rockefeller Foundation celebrate ILS as a key <a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/innovative-finance-has-a-major-role-to-play-in-tackling-climate-change/">financial solution</a> to help humanity adapt to climate change, particularly in developing countries. </p>
<h2>Meet the specialists</h2>
<p>Despite these global prospects, Florida’s hurricane risk continues to be the bread and butter for ILS investors. According to one of the biggest cat bond investors, up to half of the ILS market’s capital is pooled in the Florida homeowners’ market. The concentration of ILS capital in Florida can partly be explained by <a href="https://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/paper_HurricaneAndrew_final.pdf">changes to the homeowners’ insurance market</a>, in the 25 years following Hurricane Andrew. </p>
<p>Once led by national firms offering multiple insurance products, the market is now dominated by smaller firms that specialise in Florida homeowners’ insurance. Unable to spread their risk over a nationwide portfolio of business, these Florida “specialists” have become highly dependent on global reinsurers. </p>
<p>Several Florida specialists have deep relationships with reinsurers, including direct ownership ties and their own private ILS “vehicles”, which enable them to directly transfer billions of dollars of Florida hurricane risk to buyers in dozens of countries.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Wall Street’s growing demand for insurance-based products may be changing the fundamental public purpose of property insurance, from one that aims to protect the wealth of communities, to one that sees insured risk as the fodder for financial speculation. Some experts <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecge.12048/abstract">have pointed out</a> unsettling parallels between these new financial mechanisms and the lending model that led to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.</p>
<h2>A high price</h2>
<p>The rise of ILS capital has made new financial resources available to Florida’s rocky property insurance market. But this service has come at a significant cost to homeowners. Floridians pay the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/banking/homeowners-insurance-floridians-pay-more-than-double-us-average/2214581">highest homeowners’ insurance rates</a> in the nation, while stagnant wages and skyrocketing house prices make south Florida cities among the <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2016/10/05/miami-has-the-highest-income-inequality-in-the.html">most unequal</a> in the country. </p>
<p>The billions of dollars that Floridians spend annually on homeowners’ insurance secures financial protection for those fortunate to be property owners. But it does little to fundamentally change the state’s exceptional exposure to disaster. </p>
<p>Florida’s state officials have taken a <a href="http://www.83degreesmedia.com/features/raminifications-of-sea-level-rise-in-Florida-072517.aspx">limited, piecemeal approach</a> to minimising the state’s vulnerability to sea level rise, while continuing to encourage development in vulnerable areas and directly subsidising the state’s property insurance market. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189184/original/file-20171006-25749-k4idwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Miami: alright if you’re wealthy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/skynoir/11288734984/sizes/l">Sky Noir/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The prospect of <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/15/us/climate-change-hurricanes-harvey-and-irma/index.html">stronger and more destructive hurricanes</a>, along with the potential for higher, risk-adjusted insurance rates, could put a massive strain on the affordability of Florida’s housing market in the future. </p>
<p>What’s more, the flow of global investment capital into Florida’s high-risk homeowners’ insurance sector may actually be making the state more vulnerable to hurricanes, by keeping insurers solvent and real estate markets in motion.</p>
<p>Indeed, Hurricane Irma appears unlikely to significantly upset the dynamics within the Florida homeowners’ insurance or global catastrophe reinsurance markets – even if at least one catastrophe bond <a href="http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2017/09/25/safepoints-manatee-2016-1-class-c-cat-bond-notes-priced-for-total-loss/">may have to pay out</a>. The ratings agency <a href="http://www3.ambest.com/ambv/bestnews/presscontent.aspx?refnum=25698&altsrc=9">A.M. Best estimates</a> that it would take a US$75 billion insured loss to do so – up to three times the <a href="http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2017/09/22/465115.htm">expected US insured losses</a> for Irma. </p>
<p>So the ultimate limits of the multi-billion-dollar ILS market remain untested. But for now, the storm clouds have cleared, and Florida’s real estate boom continues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zac Taylor's research is partly supported by a scholarship from the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes.</span></em></p>Climate change will increase the risk of owning properties in coastal cities like Miami – but the insurance industry isZac Taylor, PhD Candidate in Geography, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/845472017-10-06T00:54:52Z2017-10-06T00:54:52ZShould Uncle Sam ‘send in the Marines’ after hurricanes?<p>When humanitarian emergencies flare up, what should prompt the U.S. government to “send in the Marines”?</p>
<p>Disasters like Hurricane Harvey’s floods in Houston and Hurricane Maria’s devastation of Puerto Rico’s roads and power grid can quickly overwhelm civilian authorities and emergency responders. Military support can make a life-or-death difference in those emergencies. </p>
<p>As scholars at the U.S. Naval War College and Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, we have seen that the military can have a profound and positive impact on the immediate response to large-scale disasters such as Hurricanes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/28/this-is-the-u-s-militarys-response-to-hurricane-harvey/?utm_term=.fac12441c5e3">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/11/white-house-says-its-military-response-to-irma-is-unprecedented-but-theres-actually-a-history-of-similar-operations/?utm_term=.a874b241655e">Irma</a> and <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article175066201.html">Maria</a> or the <a href="https://dialogo-americas.com/en/articles/haiti-five-years-after-earthquake-and-us-military-humanitarian-assistance-mission">Haiti</a> earthquake in 2010.</p>
<p>But soldiers, sailors, marines and aviators are primarily trained to fight, not feed disaster victims. When they report for <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/26/16349644/puerto-rico-humanitarian-crisis">humanitarian duties</a>, it typically costs far more than when civilians handle them. Does their muscle actually go to good use?</p>
<h2>Why deploy the military</h2>
<p>Nonprofits like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricane-harvey-donors-shouldnt-boycott-the-red-cross-83289">Red Cross</a> and government agencies like <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-things-that-have-changed-about-fema-since-katrina-and-5-that-havent-83205">FEMA</a> simply don’t have the equipment required following disasters like the one unfolding in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/what-happened-in-puerto-rico-a-timeline-of-hurricane-maria/541956/">Puerto Rico</a> – where millions of people may lack power and clean drinking water for months.</p>
<p>Only <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">the military</a> can promptly dispatch the <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">ships and planes</a> required to move people, supplies and fuel. It has the <a href="https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/11/federal-family-responds-hurricane-irma">electrical generators</a>, <a href="http://www.southcom.mil/Media/Special-Coverage/US-Military-Support-to-Hurricane-Irma-Relief-in-the-Eastern-Caribbean/">water purifiers</a>, bulldozers and lift equipment for <a href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/21/air-force-delivers-search-rescue-teams-mexico-quake.html">search and rescue</a> operations, debris removal and reconstruction.</p>
<p>At the same time, many military personnel also report that aid missions are good for morale, as countless service members <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1298837/soldiers-take-pride-as-hurricane-harvey-response-continues/">take pride</a> in doing disaster relief.</p>
<p>Having soldiers or sailors airlift people from their flooded homes or distribute hot meals is also great public relations at a time when the U.S. military is engaged in several <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-09-16/us-now-involved-134-wars-or-none-depending-your-definition-war">unpopular and protracted conflicts abroad</a>.</p>
<h2>Domestic limits</h2>
<p>While military missions can fill critical gaps in response to large-scale natural disasters like Hurricanes <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/08/31/questions-about-the-u-s-militarys-evolving-response-to-hurricane-harvey-answered/?utm_term=.378913d7bbd4">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/09/06/u-s-military-preparations-for-hurricane-irma-now-include-four-navy-ships-and-thousands-of-troops/?utm_term=.1efa03785da1">Irma</a> and Maria, there are also significant limits to the military’s ability to jump in.</p>
<p>For one, there are laws restricting U.S. military operations on U.S. soil. The <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1385">Posse Comitatus Act</a> of 1878 prohibits active duty military personnel from engaging in <a href="http://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/fac_pubs/979/">civilian law enforcement</a>, although the National Guard may be deployed in <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4164096/The_Role_of_the_Military_in_Disaster_Response_in_the_U.S">some circumstances</a>.</p>
<p>Also, under a law known as the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/2707">Stafford Act of 1988</a>, the Department of Homeland Security may request military assistance as a last resort in major disasters and emergencies.</p>
<p>These restrictions have <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42659.pdf">loosened up a little</a> since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, granting the military and National Guard more leeway to support domestic <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4164096/The_Role_of_the_Military_in_Disaster_Response_in_the_U.S">counterterrorism</a> operations. These changes made it easier for the military and National Guard to respond to the recent hurricanes.</p>
<p>But there are no such legal restrictions on how the U.S. military may respond to foreign disasters, as long as host governments request help or consent to it.</p>
<h2>A common call</h2>
<p>According to the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded defense research center, the U.S. military <a href="https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/D0008414.A3.pdf">diverted</a> <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.ahead-of-print/jhsem-2016-0046/jhsem-2016-0046.xml">units</a> from “routine” operations to conduct humanitarian assistance operations 366 times from 1970 to 2000, compared with 22 times for combat missions.</p>
<p>Since 2000, the U.S. armed forces have conducted many massive humanitarian operations around the globe, such as responding to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2015 Nepal earthquake, as well as Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina at home. </p>
<p>Given how frequently the military undertakes these missions, preparing for them should be a high priority. But that is not the case. With few <a href="http://www.public.navy.mil/surfor/lha6/Pages/USS-America-Demonstrates-HADR-Capabilities-during-RIMPAC-2016.aspx#.Wc5thZOGOL8">notable exceptions</a>, soldiers, sailors, marines and aviators spend little if any time <a href="https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/44691/14Dec_Winn_Timothy.pdf?sequence=1">training</a> for disaster-response strategies, tactics, policies and procedures.</p>
<h2>Concerns</h2>
<p>When the same people fight wars and distribute food to people in distress, it can quickly <a href="http://sites.tufts.edu/jha/archives/1625">blur the lines</a>, <a href="https://aidworkersecurity.org/sites/default/files/AWSR2017.pdf">exposing aid workers to attack</a>.</p>
<p>That is why aid workers for nonprofit organizations like <a href="http://www.msf.org/en/article/mali-msf-warns-about-use-humanitarian-aid-political-and-military-interests">Doctors Without Borders</a> and <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/quick-impact-quick-collapse-jan-2010.pdf">Oxfam</a> have expressed concerns about what they see as a growing “<a href="https://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/article/editorial/humanitarians-danger-article-2011-02-01.htm">militarization</a>” of humanitarian relief that <a href="http://www.iaeng.org/publication/IMECS2015/IMECS2015_pp1035-1038.pdf">endangers their own safety</a> and hinders their effectiveness.</p>
<p>There is also the high cost of having boots on the ground doing civilian work.</p>
<p>Consider what happened when the U.S. military responded rapidly after the 2010 <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1104/text">earthquake in Haiti</a> that left 220,000 people dead, 300,000 injured and 1,500,000 people displaced. More than a third of the total of US$1.12 billion in <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1104/text">U.S. aid</a> – $453.5 million – covered the costs of <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/eoir/legacy/2013/06/13/USAID_Haiti_May212010.pdf">military transport, personnel and supplies</a>.</p>
<p>According to estimates by Aruna Apte at the Naval Postgraduate School and Keenan Yoho at Rollins College, the U.S. spent <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jhsem.ahead-of-print/jhsem-2016-0046/jhsem-2016-0046.xml">more than $17 million</a> just to operate a single aircraft carrier nearby for 17 days – not counting personnel costs. </p>
<p>Aircraft carriers are essentially floating airfields that make it easier to access otherwise impossible-to-reach areas, facilitating evacuations. Although they can dispatch critical food, water and medicine, there are usually better ways to deliver aid after disasters.</p>
<p>For context, that $17 million could have covered the cost of all of the humanitarian organization Save the Children’s <a href="http://www.savethechildren.org/site/c.8rKLIXMGIpI4E/b.6235787/k.671F/Haiti_Emergency_Response.htm">health programs in Haiti between 2010 and 2012</a>.</p>
<h2>Finding the balance</h2>
<p>Despite the big price tag, military involvement in disaster relief is bound to grow. That’s because global humanitarian organizations are already stretched thin by <a href="https://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/GHO_2017.pdf">competing needs</a>.
<a href="http://www.unhcr.org/5943e8a34.pdf">Conflict-driven migration</a> is growing, and severe storms are becoming more common as a result of <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php">climate change</a> – along with the higher sea levels scientists say it is causing.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Trump administration wants to cut <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-state-idUSKBN16N0DQ">civilian government spending</a> while boosting <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/president-trumps-hard-power-budget/519702/">the Pentagon’s budget</a>.</p>
<p>But we believe it would be a huge mistake for the government to rely primarily on the armed forces in the aftermath of disasters.</p>
<p>The military’s unique capacity can be incredibly useful in the short term. Yet even when its help is most needed, these deployments should be brief and tailored.</p>
<p>Other than in the immediate aftermath of the biggest emergencies, the government should activate civilian emergency responders and humanitarian aid groups instead of sending the Marines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The military can make a big difference right away but humanitarian deployments should generally be rare and brief.Julia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityDavid Polatty, Director, Civilian-Military Humanitarian Response Program, US Naval War CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842472017-10-03T10:11:04Z2017-10-03T10:11:04ZAfter a disaster, contaminated floodwater can pose a threat for months to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188025/original/file-20170928-1488-1xmjvl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's in the water?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, reporters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/31/us/houston-contaminated-floodwaters.html">warned</a> of a “stew of toxic chemicals, sewage, debris and waste” in Houston’s floodwaters. </p>
<p>It isn’t just Harvey. Hurricanes Irma and Maria and other floods and storms heighten the risks for contamination, environmental hazards and <a href="http://doi.org/10.4161/21505594.2014.975022">disease</a>. <a href="http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/flood_cds/en/">Public health experts</a> frequently warn about the unique dangers to those evacuating from or returning to disaster-affected areas. Sadly, in the stress of the situation, these risks are often overlooked. </p>
<p>Before wading through floodwaters full of chemical spills, biotoxins, invasive species, waste, sewage and debris, it’s important to know what to watch out for and how to avoid getting hurt. </p>
<h1>Bacterial illness</h1>
<p>After epic hurricanes, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> are a common problem. </p>
<p>Hurricane <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25099408">floodwaters</a> may be contaminated by sewage with E. coli bacteria, which can cause serious <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s11908-011-0225-5">gastrointestinal illness</a>. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">Bacterial pathogens</a> such as Staphylococcus and Streptococcus can lead to skin infections. Shigella can cause gastrointestinal illness in the form of diarrhea, vomiting, fever, stomach pain and dehydration.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Katrina, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm54d914a1.htm">surveys</a> identified <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">cases</a> of Vibrio illness, a bacterial illness classically associated with exposure to saltwater or brackish water. This illness led to a handful of fatalities.</p>
<p>Storms and floods also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">increase the risk</a> for <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/leptospirosis/index.html">leptospirosis</a>. This bacterial disease, if left untreated, can lead to kidney damage, liver failure and even death.</p>
<p>Inhaling airborne moisture droplets can also put you at risk for <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-harvey-infectious-diseases-flood-water-bacteria-viruses-656093">Legionnaires’ disease</a>, which is caused by Legionella, a freshwater bacteria that easily spreads to human-made water systems during floods. This can lead to pneumonia-type symptoms, as well as gastrointestinal illness.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17006574">One review</a> found that storms heightened the risk of poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections and skin or soft tissue infections, primarily from Staph and strep infections. </p>
<p>Many of these <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s40257-015-0138-4">bacterial illnesses</a> resolve on their own, but some require antibiotics. Tetanus prophylaxis vaccines can prevent bacterial infections through open cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188027/original/file-20170928-1438-rpkj1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">From chemicals to mosquitoes, standing floodwaters carry a long list of public health risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Toxic chemicals and gases</h2>
<p>Chemical leaks and spills in floodwater can pose serious risks to human health.</p>
<p>When any flood or hurricane hits an urban industrial area, there’s a risk of toxic gases, such as as methane and sulfur dioxide, as well as industrial chemicals like benzene and butadiene, which can potentially cause cancer after large or chronic exposures. After Hurricane Harvey, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">more than 40 sites</a> reportedly released hazardous pollutants. </p>
<p>Hurricane Harvey caused flooding or damage to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/08/us/houston-hurricane-harvey-harzardous-chemicals.html">at least 14 Superfund toxic waste sites</a> in and around Houston. These sites are contaminated with dioxins, lead, arsenic and mercury, as well as other dangerous industrial compounds. These can cause serious health issues in the brain, blood and kidneys. </p>
<p>Many natural gas and other <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2017/09/09/oil-gas-tank-failures-hurricane-harvey-pollution/">fuel lines</a> were also broken during Hurricanes Harvey and Katrina. Abandoned buildings may host highly explosive gas vapors. Methane and other explosive gases may also accumulate from decaying materials. </p>
<h2>Other threats</h2>
<p>Floodwaters can make houses especially hospitable to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/mold/mold-cleanup-your-home">mold</a>, particularly in humid conditions like Texas, Puerto Rico and Florida. Multiplying mold spores carry <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">serious public health risks</a>, especially for people with existing mold allergies and asthma. </p>
<p>Standing water is also likely to cause an uptick in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/mosquitoes-and-hurricanes.html">mosquito</a> populations. Mosquitoes are vectors for a number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/harvey-and-irma-present-nearly-perfect-conditions-for-zika-spreading-mosquitoes-83938">serious viruses</a>, including Zika and yellow fever.</p>
<p>Standing water and humid conditions may also increase human encounters with <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9316257/ns/health-health_care/t/snake-bites-stomach-aches-katrinas-wake/#.WcUGBRNSzeQ">venomous snakes</a>, <a href="https://www.inquisitr.com/4463981/alligators-snakes-new-danger-in-hurricane-flooding-disoriented-gators-show-up-on-doorsteps/">fire ants</a> and stinging insects. Many of these animals may have been flooded out of their nests.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"901912379470077952"}"></div></p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2012.06.003">rates of death</a> may increase by up to 50 percent in the first year after a flood, secondary to outbreaks of diseases such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis.</p>
<h1>What to do?</h1>
<p>If you live in an area that’s at risk for hurricanes and storms, you can take steps now to protect yourself. </p>
<p>Make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are properly functioning. You should also invest in basement sump pumps and flood insurance if you live near a river, coastline or floodplain. Flood insurance can give you the necessary support to quickly clean up, evacuate and repair damaged buildings.</p>
<p>Survivors of Harvey, Irma, Maria and other storms should make every effort to limit their contact with floodwater. Often, particularly in the aftermath, this can be unavoidable. If possible, wait until the water level goes down or try to obtain transportation by boat.</p>
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<p>Open all windows when entering a building. If you smell gas or hear the sound of escaping gas, don’t smoke, operate electrical switches or create any other source of ignition. Leave the building immediately, leaving the door open. Don’t go back inside until you are told by authorities that it is safe to do so.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/mold/reenter.html">Remove standing water</a> as quickly as possible. Remove wet materials and discard those that cannot be thoroughly cleaned and dried. Materials that have been wet for longer than 48 hours may need to be discarded, as they will likely remain a source of <a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-bleach-mold-a-long-term-problem-after-flooding-and-disasters-84399">mold</a>.</p>
<p>Dry out the building. This will take time and may require the extensive disinfection and removal of some materials. Heavily contaminated floodwaters can penetrate deep into soaked, porous materials such as drywall and wood, later releasing microorganisms and other contaminants into air or water. Microorganisms will continue to grow as long as materials remain wet and humidity is high. </p>
<p>When cleaning, limit exposure to airborne mold spores by wearing gloves, goggles and a respirator, if available, or a dust mask, so you can avoid breathing in contaminated vapor or mist. If there’s no standing water in the building and it’s safe to use electricity, use fans both during and after the use of cleaning products.</p>
<p>Exercise caution when disturbing building materials such as floor tiles, pipe insulation and paint. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/large-scale-residential-demolition/asbestos-containing-materials-acm-and-demolition#asbestos-adi-guidance">These</a> may contain hazards such as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-09/documents/floods.pdf">asbestos</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/lead/post-disaster-renovations-and-lead-based-paint">lead</a>.</p>
<p>Many will use gas-powered generators to pump out floodwater. But beware – those generators can produce poisonous carbon monoxide gas in enclosed areas. In fact, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/carbon-monoxides-impact-indoor-air-quality">cases of poisoning by carbon monoxide</a> typically increase after disasters due to the improper use of fuel-burning devices.</p>
<p>You should also be on the alert for leaking containers and reactive household chemicals, like caustic drain cleaners and chlorine bleach. Stay away from leaking or spilled chemicals – even if a container is broken, it’s best to leave it undisturbed until it can be properly disposed of by authorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natural disasters expose people to toxic gases, bacterial illness and other serious dangers. How can people maximize their safety as they return home?Timothy B. Erickson, Faculty in Medical Toxicology, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard UniversityJulia Brooks, Researcher in international law and humanitarian response, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/846472017-10-02T14:49:39Z2017-10-02T14:49:39ZBrexit will hit Britain’s overseas territories hard – why is no one talking about it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188350/original/file-20171002-12168-1fiebhn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Turtle Cove on the Turks and Caicos Islands.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sackton/5763925664/in/photolist-9MkChG-9jJrxx-9jJrF6-9jMziw-9jJrPT-9jJqEt-9jJup2-9jJuea-9jJqeT-9MmgnS-9MkQko-4zkBG1-9Mmf3S-9MkPks-9Mm9p7-9MmdMm-9Mm7KJ-9MkR1y-9Mm8rf-9Mmcfu-9Mirh4-dLfHfX-dLm6nN-9jJpbR-9jMw4C-9jMubL-dLm9QC-9MmaJC-9Miwne-9MmhWu-9MivyR-9Miud8-4zkG9d-dLm7Ew-dLfymX-dLmeG3-dLmhq5-dLmaDA-dLfBP8-dLm64E-dLm3Du-dLfxrB-dLfJKD-8CMQaM-8CQVyG-8CQVwQ-9Uf5XJ-9UcgKc-muDBzj-e4KDhs">Tim Sackton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">Brexit referendum result</a> was announced last June, I was working on the Turks and Caicos Islands, one of the UK’s overseas territories in the Caribbean. A collection of about 40 tropical islands, of which eight are inhabited, people there were shocked at the result. They were annoyed they hadn’t had a chance to vote, and concerned about their future. </p>
<p>It was all too apparent that neither side in the campaign had given serious thought to the implications for territories like this one, and the situation has not improved since then. There are genuine and serious concerns that need to move up the agenda. </p>
<p>The 14 British Overseas Territories (OTs) are remnants of empire, mainly scattered through the tropics. An exception is Gibraltar, the only territory that is also part of the EU. It <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-causes-anguish-on-gibraltar-74426">is facing</a> well documented issues such as a possible closed border with neighbouring Spain and losing the right to provide services such as finance and online gambling to the rest of the EU. </p>
<p>The remainder of the territories are mostly further afield and receive much less attention in the UK media. Besides the three without civilian populations – British Antarctic Territory, British Indian Ocean Territory and South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands – the rest have varying reasons to be nervous. </p>
<p>In the Caribbean, the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands both do well from specialist financial and business services – as does Bermuda to the north. They are therefore most likely to be affected if Brexit reduces the UK’s influence in determining the prevailing international rules and regulations that govern these activities – with the EU one of the key players here, this is a distinct possibility. </p>
<h2>Fund management</h2>
<p>Of the three other Caribbean territories, Anguilla and the Turks and Caicos Islands have successful tourism sectors, while Montserrat is still struggling to recover from major volcanic eruptions two decades ago. Yet each relies to a greater or lesser extent on <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/regions/african-caribbean-and-pacific-acp-region/main-programmes-eu-development-assistance-african_en">EU aid programmes</a> that provide support to all but the richest of the OTs of EU member states. (Strictly speaking the funding is outwith the main EU budget, but the EU manages the money through its <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/general_en">International Development and Cooperation Directorate</a>.)</p>
<p>Brexit implies that the current aid programmes will probably be the last for these and the other OTs – they will not be eligible when the next round of contracts comes on stream from 2021. This comes at a time when <a href="http://www.caribbeanandco.com/surviving-hurricane-irma-in-anguilla/">Anguilla</a>, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/23/hurricane-maria-irma-turks-and-caicos">Turks and Caicos Islands</a> and also the <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/magazine/money-matters/232248-A-marshall-plan-for-the-British-Virgin-Islands">British Virgin Islands</a> all <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-select-committee-/news-parliament-2017/overseas-territories-letter-published/">need</a> “significant reconstruction funds” to make up for recent devastation from Hurricane Irma. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, losing EU funding will hit some and not others. Bermuda is rich enough not to get EU money, but they do have similar concerns to the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands about banking and financial market regulation. </p>
<p>The Falklands, on the other hand, look like being among the losers. They can probably just about manage – depending on what happens to the fishing licences they currently sell. These mostly go to Spanish ships, who are partly attracted by the Falklands’ current tariff-free trade with the EU. This situation might depend on the post-Brexit fisheries regime.</p>
<p>Funding looks precarious for the islands of St Helena and Ascension, off the coast of Angola. St Helena <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/21/st-helena-islanders-compensation-285m-airport">is already</a> experiencing unwelcome publicity over the recent completion by the UK of an airport in a place too windy for planes to land, though at least they may now be making it viable. Also threatened is the tiny island of Pitcairn, home to the <a href="https://www.infoplease.com/bounty-pitcairn-island-and-fletcher-christians-descendants">Bounty mutineers</a> in the south Pacific. With barely 50 inhabitants, funding cuts could put pressure on the islanders to leave. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=188&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188357/original/file-20171002-12149-15u8woj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=236&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All money figures are €m; EU funding covers 2014-2020.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Earlier this month, the House of Lords EU Committee <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-select-committee-/news-parliament-2017/overseas-territories-letter-published/">wrote to</a> the Brexit secretary, David Davis, seeking assurances that it might replace any of this “lost” EU funding, but so far none have been forthcoming. With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/22/britains-credit-rating-downgraded-over-brexit-and-state-of-public-finances">continuing pressure</a> on the UK public finances, and some <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e91c51d2-f20f-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608">critical media commentary</a> about the UK’s international development aid programmes, it is hard to be confident that new funding will emerge. </p>
<h2>Trade troubles</h2>
<p>The Caribbean territories in particular could also face trading issues, since there is an EU frontier in the region. This arises because several French Caribbean territories including Guadeloupe and Martinique are legally part of France proper and not self-governing, and are therefore part of the EU. </p>
<p>The extent to which this will cause problems in practice varies. For Monsterrat, its exports to Guadeloupe should be unaffected, for example, since Monsterrat is a full member of Caribbean trading bloc CARICOM and a party to the EU-CARICOM trade partnership. Anguilla, on the other hand, is potentially more complicated. Anguilla is not a party to EU-CARICOM and it is not clear how its future trade with French overseas territories will be managed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188353/original/file-20171002-12132-25fpcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Border control, Anguilla-style.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/vuis/861181625/in/photolist-2j6Mi4-3YLk5V-25Whbw-38afkA-goVr1-hKLvex-hKN8HF-eQ447f-25Trjk-eQ42U7-AtVMC-2j7dg2-atY7A-hKLrt6-25Tpck-25TrxD-hKMz5e-hKLVqE-hKLRhQ-NEaYj-ePRPwv-ACAgt-26dnqB-yS372-goT3d-bprzGA-8FNfsj-3aj3WN-hKMs8w-3YQdBf-eNv1j4-25Tp4X-4fWrxG-gt2Fm-hKLRjo-B5i9m-dMMcCz-hKMenj-hKMM4W-hKMpbj-ePjbv5-B5wpe-grSTA-hKLXcW-hKMoih-hKN7eD-gsYUp-B5px7-25Uuqg-FS3RB">Nam Linda</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The issues are a bit like <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-along-the-irish-border-on-north-south-relations-after-brexit-82297">those affecting</a> Northern Ireland and its future relations with the Republic of Ireland. Hopefully, solutions can be found that facilitate normal trade and commercial links without erecting new barriers. More generally, the OTs currently enjoy tariff-free trade with the EU – depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, this too could come to an end. </p>
<p>The overseas territories are diverse places that are proud of their British heritage and sense of identity. They have been remarkably loyal to the UK and are keen to keep up their links, but also expect to be looked after as if they were part of the UK proper. </p>
<p>This might be too much to expect, but the UK undoubtedly has responsibilities towards them. In the Brexit discussions, officials must think about how these territories’ future aid and trade should be managed. Otherwise the financial viability of certain territories is likely to be in jeopardy – with potentially destabilising results. More thought and consideration at this stage could avert some unnecessary crises further down the line.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Hare has received extensive EU funding into research about British Overseas Territories in the past, and has acted as an economic development consultant to the likes of Turks and Caicos, the Falklands and Monsterrat. His only live consultancy/EU funding relates to Monsterrat, and has included advice on the current EU aid programme. </span></em></p>It’s not all money laundering and snorkels: by ignoring these remnants of empire, UK is shoring up trouble down the line.Paul Hare, Professor Emeritus, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/843992017-09-28T00:31:47Z2017-09-28T00:31:47ZBeyond bleach: Mold a long-term problem after flooding and disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187101/original/file-20170921-21037-lwigo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Florentina Amaya of Houston looks at mold damage to her home, Sept. 5, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvey/f7303b11267a497ca1de485706b2edef/4/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the biggest issues surrounding flooding after natural disasters is mold, a problem that can stay with a structure long after floodwaters have receded. Considering that over <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2791814/">17 percent of homes</a> already have some physical condition that contributes to leaks and that mold grows in temperatures between 40 degrees Fahrenheit and 100°F, there is no wonder that we see mold and mildew problems after a disaster that brings flooding in homes and buildings.</p>
<p>Molds are fungi. Dampness supports mold and can create an unhealthy living space for people. When present in large quantities, all molds are allergenic and potentially harmful. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/08/29/the-health-consequences-to-expect-from-hurricane-harveys-floods/?utm_term=.20ad5352205d">Mold was implicated in the deaths</a> of four Southern University at New Orleans professors after Hurricane Katrina, and mold remained a persistent problem in thousands of homes even after cleanup. </p>
<p>I have been an extension agent, or someone who shares the university’s consumer and agricultural research advances directly with the public, working with indoor environmental quality issues for over 20 years. From my work, I know that the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/dampness_facts.htm">health effects from exposure to mold </a>can be short-term or long-term. But there’s a lot people can do to reduce or avoid potential problems. </p>
<h2>Fast action essential</h2>
<p>Always consider safety first when going back into a flooded home. Check for structural stability. If damage was severe, you may need to call a specialist to inspect your home to ensure it is safe to enter. </p>
<p>For areas that are less than 10 square feet, the <a href="http://www.nchh.org">National Center for Healthy Housing</a> recommends that homeowners or renters clean it up themselves. For larger areas, consider using a professional. Hire a mold inspection or remediation professional affiliated with or certified by the <a href="https://www.neha.org">National Environmental Health Association</a>, <a href="https://www.aiha.org/Pages/default.aspx">the American Industrial Hygiene Association </a>, the<a href="http://www.iicrc.org"> Institute of Inspection, Cleaning and Restoration Certification </a> or the <a href="https://www.acac.org">American Council for Accredited Certification </a> to inspect, repair and restore the damaged parts of your home. </p>
<p>If you do the work yourself, keep children away while work is being done. For bigger jobs or for more protection, use a <a href="http://blog.pksafety.com/what-does-p100-mean/">P100</a>, which blocks 99.9 percent of all particulates, or a P95 respirator. Wear eye protection that does not have open vent holes. Use gloves that are nonlatex, vinyl, nitrile or rubber and coveralls to protect clothing. </p>
<p>Change into “work” clothes before entering the work area and remove when leaving. </p>
<p>You may need to contain the area to prevent the spread of the spores. (Check out HUD’s <a href="https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=HH_Rebuild_2015_DR.pdf">Rebuild Healthy Homes</a> publication for more great information, including on how to create a containment area.)</p>
<p>Identify the extent of the damage, what you can do to stop it from continuing to get in and how to protect people in the space.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187102/original/file-20170921-20991-j2xhuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A meter for measuring moisture content can be helpful.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/587373104?src=H_1nn8SbD8LxXxxffuIxUw-1-20&size=small_jpg">Andrey_Popov/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.grainger.com/content/qt-types-of-moisture-meters-346">moisture meter</a> can be useful in determining how wet a material is, as well as identifying the source. Something that looks dry may have hidden moisture. <a href="http://www.cisllc.org/pdf/wmc.pdf">Wood moisture</a> content should be less than 16 percent. </p>
<p>Dry the wet areas – completely – as quickly as you can after the event. The water content is the most critical factor in determining if fungi can germinate and grow on a surface. Mold grows on almost any material that stays wet more than about two days. The longer the mold and wetness remain, the faster it spreads. And it is a survivor. It can grow even in dry spaces with humidity levels between 25 percent and 70 percent.</p>
<p>If you have mud and silt, shovel it out before it dries. Open doors, cabinets and drawers and use air-conditioning, heaters, fans and dehumidifiers to remove moisture. But if mold has started to grow, do not use fans, as they can spread the mold spores. </p>
<h2>To bleach, or not to bleach?</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187108/original/file-20170921-20991-8fy41a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supplies for removing mold include a hard brush and cleaning solution, but not necessarily bleach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/black-mold-corner-room-wall-preparation-532074880?src=j-xqbso9DZzv50Y3oy331g-1-2">Burdun Iliya/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many people want to reach for bleach when they first see mold. While bleach can be effective in killing mold on nonporous surfaces such as tile and porcelain, it does not work on wood and other porous material, such as drywall. On those surfaces, bleach can actually encourage more mold growth. Bleach does not prevent the regrowth of new colonies when materials stay damp. </p>
<p>If you do use bleach on bathroom and other nonporous surfaces, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises that you use no more than <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/faqs.htm">one cup of household bleach to one gallon of water</a>. Make sure you open windows and ventilate your work space. </p>
<p>Also, do not use bleach on air conditioning systems, as bleach is corrosive. Do not use on fine wood furnishings, as it can raise the grain.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mold/faqs.htm">never mix bleach</a> with ammonia; that can cause toxic fumes. </p>
<h2>Sometimes, letting go can be best</h2>
<p>Discard items that cannot be washed and disinfected. Remove carpeting, padding, draperies, upholstered furniture, pillows, stuffed animals and mattresses, as they absorb water quickly and dry slowly. </p>
<p>Ceiling tiles that are wet lose their insulative properties and need to be replaced. If you are removing building materials, like flooring or popcorn ceilings, trim or siding, be aware that in older homes they may have lead paint and asbestos. </p>
<p>Cleaning mold means we must remove it, not just kill it. Dead spores can still cause health problems. Wipe or vacuum the area. If using a vacuum, consider using one that has a<a href="http://www.bephc.gatech.edu/glossary/high-efficiency-particulate-arrestance-hepa"> High Efficiency Particulate Arrestance filter</a>. Professionals use commercial certified HEPA filter vacuums. Then, use a nonphosphate cleaning solution and hot water. Use cloths, stiff brushes and, if needed, mist-spray bottles. Do not use high-pressure sprayers, as this could dislodge and spread mold spores. </p>
<p>And finally, keep an eye out for new growth or continued dampness. Remember, mold can form in as little as two to three days. Check the outside grade to make sure you have good drainage of rainwater away from your house. Make sure you are using indoor humidity controls like bathroom and kitchen exhaust fans vented to the outside to help prevent added moisture. </p>
<p>If you see new mold, repeat cleaning and drying procedures. In some cases, it may mean that extended removal of building materials may be needed. </p>
<p>Keep in mind that damage to your home may cause you to have an emotional reaction. This is normal. Refocus your attention on positive things and what you can do. You can safely repair and rebuild your home after water damage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even when power is restored and floodwaters have receded after hurricanes, mold can still be a big problem. There are some things you can do on your own, but the damage can be extensive.Katherine Allen, County Extension Director and Family and Consumer Sciences Agent IV, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/839282017-09-27T00:56:40Z2017-09-27T00:56:40ZHow to select a disaster relief charity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187572/original/file-20170926-32444-1wx7u6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Actress Jennifer Garner, a Save the Children trustee and ambassador, helped distribute supplies after Hurricane Harvey.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Save-the-Children-Houston-Relief-Efforts/f72389c21cd143ab80368ca8291cbb73/142/0">Anthony Rathbun/Save the Children via AP Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Harvey. Irma. Jose. Maria. Massive earthquakes. Epic floods. As with <a href="https://theconversation.com/american-generosity-after-disasters-4-questions-answered-83277">previous disasters</a>, millions of Americans have already made donations to help with the latest ones.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/hand-in-hand-hurricane-relief-telethon-final-donation-count-1202564642/">telethon</a> packed with stars like George Clooney, Beyoncé and Stevie Wonder aired on all major TV networks, raising at least US$55 million for hurricane relief. Donations to the Greater Houston Community Foundation’s <a href="https://ghcf.org/">Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund</a> so far stand at $67 million. And <a href="https://www.redcross.org/donate/cm/telemundo-pub">Telemundo</a> and <a href="https://laopinion.com/2017/09/24/todo-lo-que-paso-en-el-emotivo-teleton-de-univision-por-las-victimas-de-los-huracanes-y-el-terremoto/">Univision</a>, the two biggest U.S. Spanish language TV networks, are <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-entertainment-news-updates-telemundo-and-univision-each-announce-1506013606-htmlstory.html">encouraging donations</a> to support earthquake survivors in Mexico and Guatemala and to help Puerto Rico recover from Hurricane Maria. </p>
<p>As a scholar who has studied philanthropy after disasters, I’m hearing from friends and colleagues that the growing number of charities responding to these emergencies is making them unsure about which one to support. If you are feeling the same way, here’s my advice.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Backed by a full gospel choir, Stevie Wonder performed the Bill Withers song ‘Lean on Me’ during the Hand in Hand telethon to benefit victims of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Decide what’s important to you</h2>
<p>Giving is a personal decision. What motivates people often depends on things like core values and the issues they’re passionate about. So, before you search for the right charity, clarify a few things.</p>
<p>Do you prefer to support local, national or global organizations? Would you rather give directly to individuals in need? </p>
<p>National and international organizations have specialized expertise. Local groups know the territory. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bypass-charities-give-hurricane-victims-directly-150931258.html">GoFundMe campaigns</a> connect you with real people whose stories you may find relatable. </p>
<p>The Red Cross, the biggest disaster relief nonprofit, operates everywhere. But it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricane-harvey-donors-shouldnt-boycott-the-red-cross-83289">under fire</a>, with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/28/people-are-urging-donations-for-harvey-relief-efforts-just-not-to-the-red-cross/?utm_term=.304f3d2b3ef7">some critics urging</a> donors to bypass it.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/usn/help-disaster-survivors/">The Salvation Army</a> (a national organization), the <a href="http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/">Houston Food Bank</a> (a local organization) and <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/">GoFundMe</a> (a platform for giving directly to people in need) are all responding to the latest hurricanes.</p>
<p>Also consider timing. Do you care more about helping people immediately or over the long term? Hurricane survivors need <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/local/weather/homes-destroyed-and-streets-flooded-in-puerto-rico-after-maria/2017/09/20/621abe72-9e7f-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_video.html?utm_term=.55447afed2be">food, shelter and other basics right away</a>. But relief efforts may take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/29/houston-texas-harvey-recovery-efforts">many years</a> as devastated communities rebuild.</p>
<p>Once you set these priorities, seek groups that do the kind of work you care about most. </p>
<h2>Giving options</h2>
<p>No matter where emergencies arise, international organizations such as <a href="https://www.redcross.org/ns/apology/disaster_homepage.html">Red Cross</a>, the <a href="http://www.salvationarmyusa.org/">Salvation Army</a>, <a href="http://www.americares.org/en/what-we-do/emergency-programs/">Americares</a> and the United Nations Children’s Fund (<a href="https://www.unicefusa.org/mission/emergencies">UNICEF</a>) respond and provide relief.</p>
<p>But they aren’t your only options. After an earthquake, hurricane or other tragedy, many established charities adapt their services to respond to the needs that emerge, as I learned in <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0275074009336205">research I conducted</a> about how nonprofits responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>Many media outlets and charity information sites compile lists with good options, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/20/16338698/donate-hurricane-earthquake-relief-recovery">including Vox</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/09/11/hurricane-irma-how-you-can-help/653373001/">USAToday</a>, <a href="http://www.guidestar.org/Home.aspx">Guidestar</a> and <a href="http://www.charitynavigator.org">Charity Navigator</a>.</p>
<p>After you find the groups that align with your interests, visit their websites. Read their mission statements. Look for descriptions of how they’re helping. </p>
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<h2>Results</h2>
<p>Knowing what matters to you and what your giving options are is a good start, but not enough. You also need to make sure a charity is likely to make a difference with your money. </p>
<p>Most people donate <a href="http://disasterphilanthropy.org/notable-research/philanthropic-grantmaking-disasters-lessons-learned-conrad-n-hilton-foundation/">in the first two months</a> following a hurricane or earthquake. That means that when you research your giving options, the best information you’re likely to find is what an organization plans to do or is doing right now.</p>
<p>That’s useful, but it doesn’t tell you whether they’ll do a good job. </p>
<p>Given that challenge, what kind of information can help you make a good decision? Results from past work, whether in disaster response or something else, can at least tell you something about reliability. Any nonprofit asking for your money after a hurricane or earthquake (or at any time, for that matter) should make it easy to find information about results on their website. </p>
<p>Look for answers to these questions. After the last disaster: </p>
<ul>
<li>Did they spend all the money they received? </li>
<li>How did they spend it?</li>
<li>Did the money make a meaningful difference in addressing people’s needs? </li>
</ul>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.unitedway.org/">United Way</a> often plays a major role in disaster relief. It distributes the money it raises to community groups that help those affected. <a href="https://www.unitedwaygreenbrier.org/flood-recovery">Its own report</a> about its response to West Virginia floods last year addresses the questions I identified. The Robin Hood Foundation set another good example when it <a href="https://www.robinhood.org/programs/special-initiatives/relief/hurricane-sandy/grants/">reported</a> on its work following Superstorm Sandy. </p>
<p>Details about results can be hard to find on charity websites, but organizations providing disaster relief should provide it.</p>
<p>For instance, the Red Cross website includes <a href="http://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/publications">a long list of publications</a> regarding its responses to disasters, and the Salvation Army has posted videos, with more limited information, that describe its efforts in response to <a href="http://newyork.salvationarmy.org/ways-we-help/disaster-relief/disaster-services/">Hurricane Katrina</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUx3cpglYeU&t=4s">Haiti earthquake</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.guidestar.org/Home.aspx">Guidestar</a> is a good information source because it enables charities to upload results-related information on its site. For example, The Humane Society of the United States provides results information on <a href="https://www.guidestar.org/profile/53-0225390">its Guidestar page</a> and also describes <a href="http://www.humanesociety.org/about/hsus-transformational-change.html?credit=web_id93480558">accomplishments</a> on its website. </p>
<p>If the organization does not provide results information, look for other performance clues. The Houston Food Bank website, for instance, includes a section called “<a href="http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/aboutus/kudos/">kudos</a>” listing awards and recognition. The fact that <a href="http://www.feedingamerica.org/">Feeding America</a>, a national network of food banks, has named it “Food Bank of the Year” shows that experts in the field regard it highly.</p>
<h2>Red flags</h2>
<p>Finally, use charity rating sites to discover if you should be concerned about the group you want to support.</p>
<p>These sites score nonprofits by applying their own criteria, making comparison easy. What they rate varies but usually includes financial performance, management practices and transparency. <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1284">Charity Navigator</a>, the <a href="http://www.give.org/">Better Business Bureau/Wise Giving Alliance</a> and <a href="https://www.charitywatch.org/home">Charity Watch</a> are among the best-known.</p>
<p>Before giving, consult one or more of them to ensure that the nonprofit you want to support has a high score and to see whether there are other reasons for concern. One good resource is Charity Navigator’s frequently updated <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.cnadvisories">donor advisory</a> list. It catalogs everything from reports of <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=17350">embezzled funds</a> and <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=16832">fraud</a> to <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=3691">managerial disarray</a>. </p>
<p>Give what you can spare after disasters. But, as the old adage suggests, good intentions don’t always yield good results. Doing a little research and following these guidelines can help you feel more confident about your donations and the difference they will make.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Campbell previously served on Charity Navigator's Academic Advisory Board and on the board of the United Way of New York State from 2012-2014. His husband works for the United Way chapter in New York's Broome County. </span></em></p>After a hurricane strikes or an earthquake makes shockwaves, support nonprofits that are clear about what they do and how they will spend your money.David Campbell, Associate Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.