tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-9649/articlesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – The Conversation2023-09-06T09:47:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125642023-09-06T09:47:53Z2023-09-06T09:47:53ZFrom fatal allergies to heart attacks and malaria – the devastating health effects of global warming in Africa<p>The winds that whip the towns of the Eastern Cape in South Africa have the power to generate energy. But on a dry, hot day, those winds can gather up embers and dump them into tinder dry savannah and forest, destroying crops, fodder and homes, and taking lives. </p>
<p>Wild fires create their own weather systems, generating fire storms with devastating effects. </p>
<p>Global warming will increase the number of days of shimmering heat, creating the ideal conditions for fire. In the past months, southern Europe and North Africa have experienced record-breaking temperatures and fierce fires, and the terrible effects of both on human lives, habitat and environment. The southern hemisphere is next.</p>
<p>But heat, not fire, is the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01860-2/fulltext">major cause of death worldwide</a>. The extremes in Europe and the US augur future changes globally. Countries throughout southern Africa, parts of east Africa and Madagascar are all projected to face rapidly <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa">increasing temperatures</a> to the end of this century. </p>
<p>I am an anthropologist and public health academic, working both in Australia and South Africa. Both countries are recurrently affected by the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/mhx/ensowhat">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> and resultant sea rise, with floods, drought and higher temperature in its wake. Global warming and El Niño combined suggest that the years ahead will result in increasing, devastating impacts. </p>
<h2>Heat, air quality and health</h2>
<p>As is clear from reports from multilateral agencies such as the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> and national bodies such as the <a href="https://health2016.globalchange.gov/downloads">US Global Change Research Program</a>, high temperatures can be <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death">fatal</a>, and vast populations worldwide are vulnerable.</p>
<p>High <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-heat-and-health">temperatures</a> cause heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heart attacks, strokes and other cardiovascular disease.</p>
<p>South Africa will experience more heat waves, so more heat-related deaths are likely. People in informal settlements, and badly maintained and crowded buildings, are especially vulnerable to heat stress. </p>
<p>Cities are also hot spots. Heat absorbed by roads and buildings results in the urban <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/urban-heat-island-effect">“heat island effect”</a>, while increased use of energy for cooling adds to greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<h2>Less food, lower nutrition</h2>
<p>On the continent food security is directly threatened by extreme events, but also more broadly by climate change and global warming. In<a href="https://jamba.org.za/index.php/JAMBA/article/view/562"> South Africa</a>, drought recurrently affects subsistence agriculture, livestock and commercial crops. This has already stimulated interest in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.692185/full">local coping strategies</a> faced with food insecurity.</p>
<p>The impact of drought on food and nutrition will be felt by the most vulnerable, including infants, small children and pregnant women and those who already live on or below the poverty line.</p>
<p>Large numbers of people across the continent live as subsistence farmers, and in the absence of food or water we are likely to see increased migration and humanitarian crises. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-force-up-to-113m-people-to-relocate-within-africa-by-2050-new-report-193633">Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050 - new report</a>
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<p>In South Africa, too, a large proportion of the population relies on <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=1447">subsistence farming or other small-scale farming.</a> Crop failure and drought, combined with increased food costs associated with disruptions to global food resources, will affect every one of us. </p>
<h2>Every drop counts</h2>
<p>Drought and water shortages add to these risk factors. Humans require adequate hydration to survive, and the combination of increasing temperatures and water shortages heightens the risk of organ failure and death.</p>
<p>In addition, dependence on poor quality and contaminated water has an impact on household and personal hygiene, and intestinal infections. </p>
<p><em>Vibrio cholerae</em> – the bacteria that cause cholera – is present in waterways in both high and lower income countries, and infection can be mild. But increased concentrations of the bacteria without rapid intervention to prevent severe dehydration can be lethal. The sharp increase in cholera and other <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2302/#:%7E:text=Diarrheal%20diseases%20remain%20one%20of,to%20four%20years%20of%20age.">diarrhoeal diseases</a> worldwide is associated with rising temperatures and drought. </p>
<h2>Neglected diseases</h2>
<p>Other viral and bacterial infectious diseases, especially prevalent in Africa, are also likely to increase with global warming. Bundled together as <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0000332">“neglected diseases of poverty”</a>, these include both parasitic and viral vector borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever, malaria, filariasis, schistosomiasis, dengue fever, chikungunya and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266727822100081X?via%3Dihub">influenza</a> as well as arboviruses such as different influenza pathogens. </p>
<p>The ways in which climate change will affect different vector borne disease will vary. Sluggish and stagnant waterways and polluted water sources are one risk factor. </p>
<p>There is growing evidence of <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-climate-change-means-mosquito-borne-diseases">mosquito migration </a>to higher altitudes, infecting people who have not been exposed before. </p>
<p>At the same time, there is growing evidence of vector behavioural change and resistance to insecticides in some settings, including the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71187-4">Ifakara</a> region of Tanzania.</p>
<h2>So where does this leave us?</h2>
<p>When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established in 1988, we had a choice to interrupt climate change and slow global warming. </p>
<p>Globalisation, national politics and global capitalism have meant we have failed, and 35 years on we face an inevitable crisis. </p>
<p>This does not mean there is nothing we can do to halt the destruction of planetary life. </p>
<p>It does require that we urgently and radically change how we provide and use energy, how we live, and how we <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/10/3-key-fronts-africa-climate-change/">change living conditions</a> for those who are, by the circumstances of their everyday lives, most at risk of the lethal effects of global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lenore Manderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa’s future looks catastrophic if we don’t act now on climate change.Lenore Manderson, Distinguished Professor, Public Health and Medical Anthropology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055632023-05-18T03:05:52Z2023-05-18T03:05:52ZFear and Wonder podcast: how climate action can create a more liveable future for all<p>Should poorer countries be compensated for climate disasters that aren’t their own making?</p>
<p>The concept of “loss and damage” was one of the most contentious raised at the United Nations COP27 climate summit in Egypt in November 2022. After difficult diplomatic discussions, it was agreed that a loss and damage fund should be established to compensate countries that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It’s a major step forward, but exactly how it will work remains to be seen.</p>
<p>In our final episode of Fear & Wonder, we discuss the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) final <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">Synthesis Report</a> and how its scientific findings influence global climate policy negotiations. We explore how the lived experience of climate change is already affecting human health in West Africa.</p>
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<p>We meet Senegalese meteorologist and IPCC author Aïda Diongue-Niang, who explains how African nations are already highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We follow her real-time updates from COP27 and the gruelling final approval session of the Synthesis Report. Her behind-the-scenes account reveals the dedication and determination of scientists involved in the IPCC process.</p>
<p>We hear from Mauritanian public health expert and IPCC author Guéladio Cissé, who details how more intense rainfall is already increasing the risk of water-borne and vector-borne diseases. So why is only a tiny fraction of climate adaptation funding devoted to health, and what needs to change?</p>
<p>Finally, we recap what we’ve learned throughout this podcast. We reflect on how the event that sparked its creation – the Australian Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20 – has inspired survivors to fight for climate action.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation and the Climate Council. In this final episode, we discuss how poorer nations are at greater risk to a changing climate.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051142023-05-10T20:01:22Z2023-05-10T20:01:22ZFear and Wonder podcast: the solutions needed to address climate change already exist<p>One of the key findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">Synthesis Report</a> is that there are solutions available right now, across all sectors of the economy, that could at least halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.</p>
<p>“The problem is getting worse,” explains Greg Nemet, a Canadian renewable policy expert and IPCC author. “But we’ve got solutions now that are so much more affordable than they were.”</p>
<p>After studying advances in solar technology, which has seen rapid expansion and price reductions, he’s optimistic about our capacity to avert the worst possible climate outcomes. </p>
<p>In this week’s episode of our climate podcast Fear and Wonder, we speak to Greg about the pace of change in the solar industry and whether it can be replicated for other technologies.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-fear-and-wonder-the-conversations-new-climate-podcast-200066">Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation's new climate podcast</a>
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<p>We also hear from fellow IPCC author and Algerian energy policy expert Yamina Saheb, about the emission reductions that are possible by adopting age-old sustainability concepts. She explains the idea of “sufficiency”, which aims to reduce the overall demand for energy, materials, land and water, while still delivering human wellbeing for all.</p>
<p>Finally, we ask Greg and Yamina about carbon dioxide removal, one of the most controversial technologies assessed by the IPCC. Is it the silver bullet solution we’ve all been waiting for, or should we be supporting the policy and technology options that are here with us now?</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In this episode, we discuss possible solutions to the climate crisis.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031432023-05-05T00:54:42Z2023-05-05T00:54:42ZHumanity’s tipping point? How the Queen’s death stole a climate warning’s thunder<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524322/original/file-20230504-17-hhnq1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C25%2C3456%2C2271&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/climate-change-antarctic-melting-glacier-global-324590720">Bernhard Staehli, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Think back to September last year. What happened early that month? What news shook the world and reverberated for weeks, if not months?</p>
<p>That’s a question I’ve been asking friends and colleagues lately. </p>
<p>On September 8, 2022, at 6.30pm in Britain, <a href="https://www.royal.uk/announcement-death-queen">Buckingham Palace announced</a> the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The news broke <a href="https://davidarmstrongmckay.com/tag/climate-tipping-points/">just 30 minutes before</a> the press embargo lifted on a major <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abn7950">review of climate change tipping points</a> in the journal Science.</p>
<p>The paper in Science was truly earth-shattering, as it heralded changes that could threaten the future of civil society on this planet. But it was the other news that captured the world’s attention. </p>
<p>So, in case you missed it, I’d like to alert you to this important paper by British climate researcher David Armstrong MᶜKay and colleagues. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-could-lock-in-unstoppable-changes-to-the-planet-how-close-are-they-191043">Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to the planet – how close are they?</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Climate Tipping Points: The Point of No Return? A Quick Guide.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Grappling with tipping points</h2>
<p>The question of when global warming might push elements of the climate system past points of no return has come into focus over last the decade or so. And tipping points <a href="https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/">once thought to be far off</a> in the distance have come into sharp relief. </p>
<p>The research examines major features of the global climate system, such as ice sheets, glaciers, rainforests and coral reefs. It asks when melting of ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica would become irreversible, ultimately contributing many metres to sea level. Or when thawing of frozen ground in the Arctic might start producing so much methane and carbon dioxide (CO₂) that it blows the global emissions budget.</p>
<p>Amazonian forest die-back is another major part of the Earth’s climate system. Global heating and regional reductions in rainfall could cause trees to die, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases. Fewer trees <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/02/1167371279/why-deforestation-means-less-rain-in-tropical-forests">ultimately means less rainfall</a> for those that remain, creating a vicious cycle. </p>
<p>The pivotal paper in Science reviewed more than 220 papers published since 2008 to estimate what level of global temperature rise (relative to pre-industrial levels) would trigger each of the global and regional climate tipping points.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bar chart from the original paper in Science showing the likely warming threshold for various tipping points" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523935/original/file-20230502-24-os2ne3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Global warming threshold estimates for climate tipping elements, ranging from the minimum in yellow where tipping is possible, through to maximum in dark red where tipping is very likely, central dotted line is the best estimate. Compare to the Paris Agreement range of 1.5°C to <2°C (green horizontal bar). Future projections are shown in more detail in (B) along with estimated 21st century warming trajectories. In (C), the number of thresholds potentially passed in the coming decades (depending on warming trajectory) is shown per decade (bars) and cumulatively (lines).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.science.org/stoken/author-tokens/ST-720/full">Reprinted with permission from David I. Armstrong McKay et al., Science 377:eabn7950 (2022). (https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abn7950)</a></span>
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<p>The world has already warmed 1.1°C (see the horizontal line “current warming” in the chart above). The 1.5°C and 2°C lines represent the Paris Agreement on climate change targets agreed to internationally in 2016. </p>
<p>Once initiated, irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet would add about 5m to global sea level. Disturbingly, the threshold for this tipping point may have already been crossed. If not, it is “very likely” to be crossed at 2°C. </p>
<p>Ice sheets in West Antarctica contain about another 3.5m of sea level rise, and again, irreversible melting is likely to begin at around 2°C. </p>
<p>So, that’s about 5m from Greenland and another 3.5m from West Antarctica. Add thermal expansion from warming oceans, and mountain glacier melt, and we have more than 10m of sea level rise to contend with. </p>
<p>While that will unfold over many centuries, it will be irreversible and inexorable. It means children born today will likely see sea levels rise by well over 1m early in the 22nd century. Longer-term, these changes will shape the planet for the next 150,000 years or so, until the next ice age. </p>
<p>Consider how 10m of sea level rise might change the map at <a href="https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/5/136.0179/-24.1608/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw">ClimateCentral</a>. </p>
<iframe allow="fullscreen 'src'" frameborder="0" src="https://coastal.climatecentral.org/embed/map/5/135.0738/-27.9887/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&water_level=10.0&water_unit=m" width="100%" height="500" title="Climate Central | Land below 10.0 meters of water"></iframe>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-currents-that-drive-our-vital-ocean-overturning-and-threaten-its-collapse-202108">Torrents of Antarctic meltwater are slowing the currents that drive our vital ocean 'overturning' – and threaten its collapse</a>
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<p>Much of the world’s tropical coral reefs will likely die at 1.5°C to 2°C of warming. And thawing of Arctic permafrost would start releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases, equal to about 10% of human emissions. That would likely push global temperature up by another 0.5°C to 1.0°C (on top of 2°C). </p>
<p>Thankfully, logging and wildfire aside, the Amazon forest looks relatively safe until about 3°C of warming. But the combination of some of those other tipping points might get us there, setting off a further cascade of tipping points. </p>
<h2>Can we avoid disaster?</h2>
<p>After decades of delay, our chances of keeping global warming below 1.5°C are pretty slim. But, clearly, this research shows that limiting warming to 2°C will not keep us safe. </p>
<p>The focus on “<a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">net zero by 2050</a>” has in fact done us a disservice. If we let emissions remain anywhere near current levels for much longer, by 2030 we will have used up the carbon emissions budget that would allow us to stay near 1.5°C. </p>
<p>We need to act quickly and at least halve current emissions by 2030 on the way to net zero before 2050. This research shows that failing to do so will trigger 10m or more of sea level rise. That will gradually displace hundreds of millions of people and many of the world’s major cities.</p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has begun talking about the possible failure of civil society in response to increasing extreme events. We are seeing early indicators of this in Australia, with people living in tents for years after floods made worse by climate change. They face decisions about whether or not to rebuild on that land. </p>
<p>How long will there be money available to provide disaster relief in Australia and around the world? Where will hundreds of millions of people go after being displaced by extreme <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wet-bulb-temperature">wet bulb temperature</a>, crop failure, fire, flooding and sea level rise?</p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Arriving at this juncture in human history feels like a massive failure. A failure of leadership, of decision making, of information dissemination through media, and perhaps our priorities, has left us in this extremely challenging position. </p>
<p>Many factors have conspired against us. These include fossil fuel companies funding misinformation and <a href="https://theconversation.com/capitalising-on-climate-anxiety-what-you-need-to-know-about-climate-washing-202507">climate-related “green washing”</a> – exaggerating or misrepresenting their climate credentials. Elected leaders being influenced by donations from the fossil fuel industry. Earlier low-resolution climate models failing to capture local scale processes, and therefore underestimating climate system sensitivity. Poor media communication of the urgency of the issue. And throw in some good old human “optimism bias” towards positive outcomes. </p>
<p>As a climate scientist, with almost 18 years experience in operations at the Bureau of Meteorology and more recently, in my work on <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/climate-change/climate-science-knowledge-resources/latest-climate-projections-for-sa">high resolution climate projections</a> for state government, I deeply know the climate grief so eloquently communicated by climate researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-i-feel-my-heart-breaking-today-a-climate-scientists-path-through-grief-towards-hope-188589">Joelle Gergis</a>. </p>
<p>In response, I have had to draw on tools such as meditation and mindfulness to deal with the awareness the science presents including the likely future suffering of so many. It is challenging to see where we are heading and – with what is at stake – to see life going on as if everything is fine. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-fear-and-wonder-the-conversations-new-climate-podcast-200066">Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation's new climate podcast</a>
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<h2>A turning point</h2>
<p>Future events are going to challenge us in many ways. Humanity faces a choice between retreat into fear and war, or cooperation and collaboration. There is much already happening and a lot we can do, as individuals and communities. We can <a href="https://www.iucn.org/our-work/topic/forests/forest-landscape-restoration">restore landscapes</a>, reward sustainability, create a circular economy and <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/">electrify everything</a>. But we need to act fast. </p>
<p>So, as King Charles III’s coronation plays across our TV screens and media feeds in coming days, keep the incredibly urgent climate crisis in mind. Ask our leaders to step up. Do not be distracted, as future generations will judge us for the choices we make today.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now-201763">'It can be done. It must be done': IPCC delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Ray receives a Federal Govt RTPS postgraduate scholarship, and is the recipient of funding associated with a SUBAK Australia Fellowship. Darren Ray is a past employee of the Bureau of Meteorology. </span></em></p>When Buckingham Palace announced the death of Queen Elizabeth II in September, the news overshadowed reporting of a critical review of climate tipping points, published in Science. Did you miss it?Darren Ray, PhD candidate | Paleoclimate, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049082023-05-03T20:18:05Z2023-05-03T20:18:05ZFear and Wonder podcast: where to next on climate change? – Live bonus episode<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523964/original/file-20230503-22-lzc9tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C1794%2C900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>“I’m often asked if I feel hopeful for the future,” says Lesley Hughes, climate scientist and former Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) author.</p>
<p>“For me, hope is a strategy, rather than an emotion. Because if we don’t have hope and optimism, then we all give up, and if we all give up, then we are truly lost.”</p>
<p>In this live bonus episode of Fear & Wonder, The Conversation’s climate podcast, recorded on May 1, host Michael Green spoke with Hughes, alongside current IPCC authors Mark Howden and Frank Jotzo.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/6306bcc77d4d0a00130bc055/6451af6da6768500113c7b7a" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-822" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/822/cfe1cb0d01c023aeef001dac6a65f27fcee4c0bb/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>All three guests have been at the forefront of climate science in Australia for decades. They trace how climate science went from a relatively peripheral topic to one of central importance to scientists and governments around the world.</p>
<p>They reflect on their respective journeys, the key takeaways from the IPCC’s most recent Synthesis Report, and the imminent challenges and opportunities for Australia and the world.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In this live bonus episode, we discuss where to next on climate change.Michael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2043592023-04-26T20:03:10Z2023-04-26T20:03:10ZFear and Wonder podcast: how species are responding to climate change – and how humans can help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522464/original/file-20230424-28-vj5jul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C1997%2C1323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lake ice in Ruka, Finland.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom Roeleveld/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around half of all life on Earth is on the move because of climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Many species’ habitats are changing, forcing them to move, while others are fleeing harm’s way as new predators move in.</p>
<p>This staggering statistic shows just one of the ways climate change is impacting species at both ends of the Earth. In this week’s episode of The Conversation’s climate podcast Fear & Wonder, we travel from the Arctic to Tasmania to see how these changes are playing out.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">second volume</a> of the IPCC’s monumental Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of people and ecosystems to global warming, including how animals and plants are responding to a changing climate.</p>
<p>In this episode, we speak to Finnish fisherman and IPCC scientist Tero Mustonen about the changes he has observed on the lake ice in his village of Selkie in North Karelia, and how his community has led a successful rewilding project on a nearby peatland mining site.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-fear-and-wonder-the-conversations-new-climate-podcast-200066">Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation's new climate podcast</a>
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<p>We also hear from Australian marine ecologist and IPCC author Gretta Pecl, whose research has helped map the rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Through her dives off the Tasmanian coast, we learn how species are shifting their distribution faster in the ocean than they are on land.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
<p>If you’re enjoying Fear & Wonder, be sure to join us for a live bonus episode at 1pm on May 1. Details <a href="https://theconversation.com/join-us-for-the-fear-and-wonder-podcast-live-bonus-episode-204268">here</a>.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In episode five, we discuss how climate change is affecting vulnerable species.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2028372023-04-23T20:02:51Z2023-04-23T20:02:51ZThe IPCC’s calls for emissions cuts have gone unheeded for too long – should it change the way it reports on climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521969/original/file-20230419-14-yzelrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C164%2C6432%2C3735&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gary Hershorn/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Emissions from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO₂, methane, CFCs and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.</em> </p>
<p><em>Long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today’s levels.</em></p>
<p>These are not statements from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">latest report</a> released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>). They come from its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/syr/">first assessment</a> in 1990.</p>
<p>Back then, the IPCC acknowledged there were uncertainties in the predictions due to incomplete scientific understanding of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. But what has actually happened in the 30 years since largely matches the predictions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>an average rate of global sea level rise of 30-100mm per decade due to the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of some land ice </p></li>
<li><p>an increase of global mean temperature of about 0.3°C per decade under business as usual.</p></li>
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<p>The IPCC also predicted the rise in temperature would slow as we ramped up efforts to cut emissions, but this scenario hasn’t been tested because emissions reductions never happened.</p>
<p>In 1990, the IPCC also presented the first warnings about potential climate change impacts. It then repeated them in one form or another in the following five assessment reports. But emissions continued to rise each year, resulting in a global temperature increase of 1.1-1.2°C.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-conservative-nature-masks-true-scale-of-action-needed-to-avert-catastrophic-climate-change-202287">IPCC's conservative nature masks true scale of action needed to avert catastrophic climate change</a>
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<h2>We know how to reduce emissions</h2>
<p>On a more positive note, annual emissions from 18 countries have peaked during the past decades – but not always as a result of climate policies. For example, the UK’s manufacturing capacity reduced significantly as companies moved off-shore. Nevertheless, global emissions kept rising. </p>
<p>Chapters in IPCC reports covering agriculture, land-use change, energy supply, transport, buildings, industry and urban settlements repeatedly provided clear guidance on emissions cuts, such as this section from 2001:</p>
<p><em>Hundreds of technologies and practices for end-use energy efficiency in buildings, transport and manufacturing industries account for more than half of the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</em></p>
<p>Details of how to reduce emissions from improved energy efficiency in all sectors have been repeated in all six IPCC assessments. But many opportunities to reduce energy demand, and save costs, have not been implemented. Although scientific knowledge has advanced since 1990 and a range of low-carbon technologies have evolved and improved, the key IPCC messages have remained the same. </p>
<p>Given the many repeated warnings, why have global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise? Typical answers include population growth, the rise of the middle classes in many developing countries, increased consumerism, greater tourism, lobbying by the fossil fuel industry and higher consumption of animal proteins. </p>
<p>National and local governments have also struggled to implement strong climate policies because the majority of their citizens and businesses remain unwilling to change their behaviour. This is even the case when co-benefits are clearly evident, including improved health, reduced traffic congestion and lower costs.</p>
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<img alt="People celebrating at the end of a session by the IPCC" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521974/original/file-20230419-2604-ni3ige.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The conclusion of the IPCC’s latest report earlier this year marked the end of its sixth assessment cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Earth Negotiations Bulletin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>A possible future for the IPCC</h2>
<p>Having assessed thousands of published research papers over 33 years, what has the IPCC actually achieved since its inception in 1988? And what should be its future role given that many of its strong messages have largely gone unheeded? </p>
<p>Arguably, present and future climate impacts would have been even worse without the IPCC’s work. With each report, the urgency to act on both mitigation and adaptation increased. Few climate deniers now remain. More people want their governments to act.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-multi-country-media-analysis-shows-scepticism-of-the-basic-science-is-dying-out-198303">Climate change: multi-country media analysis shows scepticism of the basic science is dying out</a>
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<p>Although total global emissions continue to rise, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions may be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022">reaching a plateau</a>. According to the <a href="https://www.iea.org/">International Energy Agency</a>, these emissions rose by under 1% in 2022 – less than initially feared after the COVID dip – largely because of the growth of solar, wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps and improved energy efficiency measures.</p>
<p>So there is hope. But after 25 years of personal involvement with six IPCC reports, my view is that it’s time to review the role of the IPCC and its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">three main working groups</a> before the next assessment cycle begins.</p>
<p>Since climate science continues to evolve, the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg1/">Working Group One</a> on the science of the climate system should continue to assess and present the latest knowledge every five to six years. </p>
<p>The need for adaptation and resilience is finally receiving greater attention, mainly as a result of more extreme climate impacts and growing insurance claims. Therefore, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg2/">Working Group Two</a> should continue but report every two years so that both scientific analyses and local real-world experiences can be shared quickly between local and national governments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-has-never-been-so-important-and-this-ipcc-report-pulls-no-punches-165252">Communicating climate change has never been so important, and this IPCC report pulls no punches</a>
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<p>Measures to cut emissions have evolved as newer technologies have been developed and refined. The present understanding of the policies and solutions to reducing emissions across all sectors is similar to 1990 knowledge – we just need to get on with implementing solutions by removing remaining barriers through regulation and advice. </p>
<p>Research to reduce and capture carbon dioxide emissions will continue, but given the urgency, it is too risky to hope that new low-carbon technologies and systems will one day prove to be commercially successful. Overall, the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg3/">Working Group Three</a> on mitigation has done its job and should be replaced by a new working group on changing human behaviour. </p>
<p>Behavioural science has been included in various chapters within more recent IPCC reports. Without significant social change in the near term, the emissions curve will not bend downwards. Renewed emphasis on how to best achieve societal change across cultures as a matter of urgency is crucial.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Sims has received travel funding from NZ Government to support his previous role as an IPCC author. </span></em></p>Research on societal change should feature more strongly in the IPCC’s climate assessments. Because without a significant shift in behaviour, the emissions curve will not bend downwards.Ralph Sims, Emeritus Professor, Energy and Climate Mitigation, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2039002023-04-19T23:08:19Z2023-04-19T23:08:19ZFear and Wonder podcast: how climate change is affecting rainfall, droughts and floods<p>“The wet gets wetter and the dry gets drier”.</p>
<p>That’s one of the key messages from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report</a> on how climate change is impacting the Earth’s water cycle.</p>
<p>It’s the topic of the latest episode of Fear & Wonder, a new podcast from The Conversation taking you inside that era-defining IPCC report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it.</p>
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<p>The water cycle describes the physical processes that move water around the planet. Simply speaking, when water evaporates it is transported through the atmosphere as water vapour. It then condenses to form clouds and precipitates as rain or snow. Without water, human societies and ecosystems would not be able to function, so understanding how climate changes is influencing the water cycle is vital.</p>
<p>In this episode, we hear from Professor Paola Arias from Colombia and Dr Krishnan Raghavan from India. They explain how climate change is intensifying wet and dry extremes, and how human influences like air pollution and land degradation are impacting regional rainfall patterns.</p>
<p>As temperatures increase over land, water evaporates more readily which can cause drier conditions and lead to more severe droughts. As a warmer atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, heavy rainfall events are also becoming more intense as temperatures continue to rise, increasing flood risks in many parts of the world.</p>
<p>We discuss the various impacts of this phenomenon, citing examples such as Australia’s east coast floods of 2022, extremes in the South Asian monsoon that impacts millions of people, and the devastating 2020 wildfires in South America’s Pantanal, the largest tropical wetland in the world.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In episode four, we discuss how climate change is affecting the water cycle.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983032023-04-18T10:51:28Z2023-04-18T10:51:28ZClimate change: multi-country media analysis shows scepticism of the basic science is dying out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520517/original/file-20230412-16-b8s3ra.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5097%2C2880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frame Stock Footage/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Any regular viewer of BBC’s Question Time could be forgiven for thinking that old-fashioned climate science denialism is alive and kicking. In a recent edition, panellist Julia Hartley-Brewer called the IPCC’s climate models “complete nonsense”, and dismissed the 2022 record UK heatwave and the floods in Pakistan <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/bbc-question-time-julia-hartley-brewer-b2212827.html">by saying</a>: “It’s called weather.”</p>
<p>But for some time now, researchers have suggested that the balance of arguments propagated by climate sceptics or denialists has shifted from denying or undermining climate science to challenging policy solutions designed to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>For example, computer-assisted methods applied to thousands of contrarian blogs or websites have found that since the year 2000, “evidence scepticism” which argues that climate change is not happening, or is not caused by humans or the effects won’t be too bad, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-01714-4/figures/2">has been on the decline</a>, while “response” or “solutions scepticism” has been on the rise. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0963662515612276">US media</a> and UK media, there is strong evidence too that the prevalence of these arguments may be shifting. By 2019 <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac14eb">much less space was being given to those denying the science</a> in newspaper outlets in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US, except in some right-leaning titles.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="tablet showing climate change news article" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521319/original/file-20230417-18-z0vd8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">From denial to delay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Skorzewiak / shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>But what about television coverage? <a href="https://www.digitalnewsreport.org/survey/2020/how-people-access-news-about-climate-change/">Recent survey work</a> finds that in most countries, television programmes, including news and documentaries, are by far the most used source of information on climate change compared to online news, print or radio.</p>
<p>In a new study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00760-2">Communications Earth & Environment</a> my colleagues and I looked at 30 news programmes on 20 channels in Australia, Brazil, Sweden, the UK and the US which included coverage of a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">2021 report by the IPCC</a> on the physical science basis of climate change. Australia, the UK and the US were chosen for their long history of climate scepticism, whereas Brazil and Sweden were included for the more recent arrival of scepticism among key political parties.</p>
<p>These channels included 19 “mainstream” examples such as the BBC, ABC in Australia and NBC in America, and 11 examples from a selection of “right-wing” channels ranging from Fox News, which commands a large audience, to more outliers such as GBTV in the UK, SwebbTV in Sweden, Sky News in Australia and Rede TV! in Brazil. </p>
<p>We then watched and manually coded all 30 programmes (around 220 minutes of content) for examples of the different types of scepticism present, following the broad distinction above between “evidence” and “response/policy” scepticism. But we also distinguished between “general response” scepticism, usually advanced by organised sceptical groups, and “directed” response scepticism, where country-specific economic, social and political obstacles to enacting climate policies were mentioned.</p>
<h2>Science scepticism is no longer mainstream</h2>
<p>First, we found that on mainstream channels, the presence of science scepticism, science sceptics and general contestation around the IPCC’s report was much less present in our sample than in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2535%2520(2015).">coverage of the previous round of IPCC reports</a> in 2013 and 2014, even in countries that have historically had strong traditions of science denial.</p>
<p>Second, response scepticism was in some of the coverage by mainstream channels. But in most cases, these were examples of “directed” scepticism. In contrast, there was more non-specific response scepticism on right-wing channels such as right-wing politician and pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage on GBTV arguing that “whatever we do here [in the UK], it’s China that needs to do far more than us”, or a commentator on Fox News suggesting that “only being able to fly when it is morally justifiable would lead to people having to entirely change their lifestyles”.</p>
<p>Also on right-wing channels, in four countries (Australia, Sweden, the UK and the US) sceptics were combining evidence and response scepticism. For example, Fox News continued its historical record of scepticism by criticising the IPCC report and hosting evidence sceptics, but it also included a wide range of examples of response scepticism (such as the infringement on civil liberties by taking climate action). </p>
<p>Finally, we looked at the sorts of arguments that were being made, following a useful <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-01714-4/figures/1">taxonomy of climate scepticism or obstructionism</a> published in the journal Nature in 2021. We found a wide variety of claims, but the most common concerned the high cost of taking action and “whataboutism” (typically questioning the need to take action when other countries such as China were not doing enough).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing types of policy scepticism" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505967/original/file-20230123-17-erknkr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The most common policy scepticism concerned the economic cost of climate action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Painter et al / Nature Comms</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why does this matter? First, how these arguments play out on television is hugely important because of its dominance as a source of climate information. Second, there is strong evidence that media has a very powerful agenda-setting effect, and in certain contexts, can exert a strong <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619328045">effect on attitudes and behaviour change</a>.</p>
<p>Legitimate policy discussion needs to be carefully distinguished from false claims put out by organised sceptical groups. But for those active in opposing organised scepticism, any definitive shift towards response scepticism across the media, such as <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/beware-misinformation-and-propaganda-about-the-cost-of-energy-crisis/">vocal opposition to net zero policies</a>, represents an important new challenge to climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Painter has worked as an external consultant for the IPCC. </span></em></p>We watched 30 news programmes in five countries to see how they covered an IPCC report.James Painter, Research Associate, Reuters Institute, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2035592023-04-12T20:04:08Z2023-04-12T20:04:08ZFear and Wonder podcast: how scientists attribute extreme weather events to climate change<p>Last month the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report</a>.</p>
<p>It showed global temperatures are now 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. This warming has driven widespread and rapid global changes, including more frequent and intense weather extremes that are now impacting people and ecosystems all over the world.</p>
<p>But when an extreme weather event hits, how certain can we be that it was made more likely by climate change? How do we know it wasn’t just a rare, naturally-occuring event that might have happened anyway?</p>
<p>Fear & Wonder is a new podcast from The Conversation that takes you inside the UN’s era-defining climate report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/6306bcc77d4d0a00130bc055/64350a7ef699c5001124a396" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-822" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/822/cfe1cb0d01c023aeef001dac6a65f27fcee4c0bb/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The show is hosted by Dr Joëlle Gergis – a climate scientist and IPCC lead author – and award-winning journalist Michael Green.</p>
<p>In this episode, we’re delving into one of the major shifts in the public communication of climate change – the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change. </p>
<p>Although in the past we knew climate change was making extreme weather more likely, advances in climate modelling now allow scientists to pinpoint the influence of natural and human-caused factors on individual weather extremes.</p>
<p>We speak to climatologist Dr Friederike Otto about a rapid attribution study of a heatwave in Toulouse, France, as it unfolded in 2019. We also hear from climatologist Professor David Karoly to help us understand how climate models actually work, while Professor Tannecia Stephenson explains how global models are then used to develop regional climate change projections over the Caribbean island of Jamaica.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
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<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In episode three, we discuss the latest advances in extreme weather attribution.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025122023-03-29T19:03:42Z2023-03-29T19:03:42ZFear and Wonder podcast: how scientists know the sea is rising<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517360/original/file-20230324-16-rqxdlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C1495%2C992&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solheimajokull, a glacier in Southern Iceland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/akefotos/4296832437">whatafoto/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report</a>, delivering a sobering assessment of the state of our climate and the urgency of curbing emissions.</p>
<p>The report represents the work of hundreds of dedicated scientists, whose tireless work is little understood and rarely acknowledged.</p>
<p>How do these scientists arrive at their conclusions? And what does it feel like to carry that knowledge and do their vital work at this crucial juncture in Earth’s history?</p>
<p>Fear & Wonder is a new podcast from The Conversation that seeks to answer these questions. It takes you inside the UN’s era-defining climate report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-fear-and-wonder-the-conversations-new-climate-podcast-200066">Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation's new climate podcast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/6306bcc77d4d0a00130bc055/641d21f61dd7cd00116d9230" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-822" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/822/cfe1cb0d01c023aeef001dac6a65f27fcee4c0bb/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The show is hosted by us: Dr Joëlle Gergis – a climate scientist and IPCC lead author – and award-winning journalist Michael Green.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/fear-and-wonder-podcast-how-scientists-know-the-climate-is-changing-202237">episode one</a>, we heard how long-term natural and human records show us that our climate is changing. In episode two, we continue that trail to the present day, investigating some of the new ways that scientists are observing current changes in melting glaciers and sea level rise.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fear-and-wonder-podcast-how-scientists-know-the-climate-is-changing-202237">Fear and Wonder podcast: how scientists know the climate is changing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Icelandic scientist Professor Guðfinna “Tollý” Aðalgeirsdóttir takes listeners crunching over the ice on a field trip to measure the summer snow melt on a glacier. She explains how she got into glaciology and recent advances in the way we measure the frozen parts of the planet. We also hear from English oceanographer and sea level rise expert Dr Matt Palmer, who talks about the revolution in ocean monitoring brought about by the global Argo float program.</p>
<p>As Joëlle concludes, “Both Tollý and Matt touch on the idea of memory in the frozen parts of the world. I think that’s a really important thing to think about because these changes that are being unleashed on the climate system as the Earth warms up and struggles to find its new equilibrium will reverberate for centuries to come. It’s something we’ll be living through a long time after we are gone.”</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In episode two, we discuss the latest advances for measuring climate change.Joelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityMichael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022372023-03-22T19:42:45Z2023-03-22T19:42:45ZFear and Wonder podcast: how scientists know the climate is changing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516856/original/file-20230322-24-l9gw62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6600%2C2341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A comparison between two views of the same coral reef on Kiritimati, taken by University of Victoria scientists.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danielle Claar, Kristina Tietjen/University of Victoria</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earlier this week, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">Synthesis Report</a>, bringing together six previous assessments on the state of the Earth’s climate.</p>
<p>The verdict is sobering. Global temperatures are now 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and they’re likely to reach 1.5°C in the early 2030s. As climate change experts Frank Jotzo and Mark Howden <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now-201763">wrote</a> for The Conversation: “The world is in deep trouble on climate change, but if we really put our shoulder to the wheel we can turn things around”.</p>
<p>So how do the IPCC’s climate scientists know the climate is changing? And what does it feel like to carry that knowledge and do their vital work at this crucial juncture in Earth’s history?</p>
<p>Fear & Wonder is a new podcast from The Conversation that seeks to answer these questions. It takes you inside the UN’s era-defining climate report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-fear-and-wonder-the-conversations-new-climate-podcast-200066">Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation's new climate podcast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/6306bcc77d4d0a00130bc055/64126e536c268700110de4d7" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-822" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/822/cfe1cb0d01c023aeef001dac6a65f27fcee4c0bb/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The show is hosted by us: Dr Joelle Gergis – a climate scientist and lead IPCC author – and award-winning journalist Michael Green.</p>
<p>In this first episode, we introduce the series and look at long-term observations that help scientists determine how the climate has changed. With help from French scientist Professor Valérie Masson-Delmotte – a co-chair of the IPCC’s Working Group One – they explain what the IPCC is, what its monumental climate reports contain and how they’re put together. </p>
<p>We speak to Professor Kim Cobb, a US-based paleoclimatologist, who describes the coral reef she has researched her whole career and its destruction in the El Niño of 2016. She also shares her experience of what it feels like to be a climate scientist at this important point in human history.</p>
<p>We also speak to Professor Ed Hawkins, who explains how historical weather observations are significantly improving our understanding of extreme events such as severe storms, and how these records can help estimate future climate change risk. Hawkins tells the story of a citizen science project to digitise millions of weather observations from locations such as from Ben Nevis, the highest peak in the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>To listen and subscribe, click <a href="https://shows.acast.com/fear-and-wonder-stories-from-un-climate-experts">here</a>, or click the icon for your favourite podcast app in the graphic above.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Fear and Wonder is sponsored by the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>, an independent, evidence-based organisation working on climate science, impacts and solutions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202237/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fear and Wonder is a new climate podcast, brought to you by The Conversation, and sponsored by the Climate Council. In episode one, we discuss how scientists know the climate is changing.Michael Green, Host + Producer, The ConversationJoelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021162023-03-20T13:04:35Z2023-03-20T13:04:35ZClimate damage is worsening faster than expected, but there’s still reason for optimism – 4 essential reads on the IPCC report<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516314/original/file-20230320-701-yvz5st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C3000%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wildfires are becoming a greater risk in many countries as the landscape dries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/californias-caldor-fire-moves-east-toward-lake-tahoe-as-news-photo/1234890718">Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reading the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">international climate report</a> can feel overwhelming. It describes how rising temperatures caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">having rapid, widespread effects</a> on the weather, climate and ecosystems in every region of the planet, and it says the risks are escalating faster than scientists expected.</p>
<p>Global temperatures are now 1.1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than at the start of the industrial era. Heat waves, storms, fires and floods are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-climate-risks-are-rising-a-scientist-looks-at-the-dangers-her-children-will-have-to-adapt-to-from-wildfires-to-water-scarcity-177708">harming humans and ecosystems</a>. Hundreds of species have disappeared from regions as temperatures rise, and climate change is causing irreversible changes to sea ice, oceans and glaciers. In some areas, it’s becoming harder to adapt to the changes, the authors write.</p>
<p>Still, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-transform-how-we-live-but-these-tech-and-policy-experts-see-reason-for-optimism-180961">reasons for optimism</a> – falling renewable energy costs are starting to transform the power sector, for example, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">the use of electric vehicles is expanding</a>. But change aren’t happening fast enough, and the window for a smooth transition is closing fast, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> report warns. To keep global warming below 1.5 C (2.7 F), it says global greenhouse gas emissions will have to drop 60% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Heat map shows how temperatures have changed and what they look like under different scenarios going foward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The extent to which current and future generations will experience a hotter world depends on choices made now and in the coming years. The scenarios show expected differences in temperature depending on how high emissions are going forward.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">new report</a>, released March 20, 2023, the IPCC summarizes findings from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">a series of assessments</a> written over the past eight years and discusses how to stop the damage. In them, <a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587">hundreds of scientists</a> reviewed the evidence and research.</p>
<p>Here are four essential reads by co-authors of some of those reports, each providing a different snapshot of the changes underway and discussing solutions.</p>
<h2>1. More intense storms and flooding</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of rescue workers in bright vests and hard hats walks in waist-deep water on a flooded street, pulling a raft. Water is up to the mailbox they're passing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A volunteer fire company assists with evacuation efforts following a flash flood in Helmetta, New Jersey, in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-new-market-volunteer-fire-company-perform-a-news-photo/1234816728">Tom Brenner / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the most shocking natural disasters of the past few years have involved intense rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>In Europe, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/europes-catastrophic-flooding-was-forecast-well-in-advance-what-went-so-wrong-164818">storm in 2021</a> set off landslides and sent rivers rushing through villages that had stood for centuries. In 2022, about <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">a third of Pakistan</a> was underwater, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">several U.S. communities</a> were hit with extreme flash flooding.</p>
<p>The IPCC warns in the sixth assessment report that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">water cycle will continue to intensify</a> as the planet warms. That includes extreme monsoon rainfall, but also increasing drought, greater melting of mountain glaciers, decreasing snow cover and earlier snowmelt, wrote UMass-Lowell climate scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=en">Mathew Barlow</a>, a co-author of the report examining physical changes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World maps show precipitation increasing in higher latitudes, but not everywhere." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual average precipitation is projected to increase in many areas as the planet warms, particularly in the higher latitudes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“An intensifying water cycle means that both wet and dry extremes and the general variability of the water cycle will increase, although not uniformly around the globe,” Barlow wrote.</p>
<p>“Understanding this and other changes in the water cycle is important for more than preparing for disasters. Water is an essential resource for all ecosystems and human societies.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">The water cycle is intensifying as the climate warms, IPCC report warns – that means more intense storms and flooding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The longer the delay, the higher the cost</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pedicab driver looks over at an SUV making waves as both drive through knee-high water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rainfall filled streets in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in July 2020. Flooding has become common in many South Asia cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/commuters-make-their-way-through-a-water-logged-street-news-photo/1227715942">Munir Uz zaman / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC stressed in its reports that human activities are unequivocally warming the planet and causing rapid changes in the world’s atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">oceans and icy regions</a>.</p>
<p>“Countries can either <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">plan their transformations</a>, or they can face the destructive, often chaotic transformations that will be imposed by the changing climate,” wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sk6R5OYAAAAJ&hl=en">Edward Carr</a>, a Clark University scholar and co-author of the IPCC report focused on adaptation.</p>
<p>The longer countries wait to respond, the greater the damage and cost to contain it. One estimate from Columbia University put the <a href="https://uccrn.ei.columbia.edu/arc3.2">cost of adaptation needed just for urban areas</a> at between US$64 billion and $80 billion a year – and the cost of doing nothing at 10 times that level by mid-century.</p>
<p>“The IPCC assessment offers a stark choice,” Carr wrote. “Does humanity accept this disastrous status quo and the uncertain, unpleasant future it is leading toward, or does it grab the reins and choose a better future?”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">Transformational change is coming to how people live on Earth, UN climate adaptation report warns: Which path will humanity choose?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Transportation is a good place to start</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="3 EV's parked in a garage and charging." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicle sales have been accelerating, and new tax incentives and state zero-emissions requirements are expected to boost sales even more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/O63S96_qn8c">Michael Fousert/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One crucial sector for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is transportation.</p>
<p>Cutting greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-companies-pledge-net-zero-emissions-to-fight-climate-change-but-what-does-that-really-mean-166547">to net-zero</a> by mid-century, a target considered necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 C, will require “<a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">a major, rapid rethinking of how people get around globally</a>,” wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=h-2TvzUAAAAJ&hl=en">Alan Jenn</a>, a transportation scholar at the University of California Davis and co-author on the IPCC report on mitigation.</p>
<p>There are positive signs. Battery costs for electric vehicles have fallen, making them increasingly affordable. In the U.S., the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a> offers tax incentives that lower the costs for EV buyers and encourage companies to ramp up production. And several states are considering following California’s requirement that all new cars and light trucks be <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-californias-ambitious-new-climate-plan-could-help-speed-energy-transformation-around-the-world-197094">zero-emissions by 2035</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing falling costs and rising adoption" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Costs have fallen for key forms of renewable energy and EV batteries, and adoption of these technologies is rising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Behavioral and other systemic changes will also be needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions dramatically from this sector,” Jenn wrote.</p>
<p>For example, many countries saw their transportation emissions drop during COVID-19 as more people were allowed to work from home. Bike sharing in urban areas, public transit-friendly cities and avoiding urban sprawl can help cut emissions even further. <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-planes-are-coming-short-hop-regional-flights-could-be-running-on-batteries-in-a-few-years-190098">Aviation and shipping are more challenging</a> to decarbonize, but efforts are underway.</p>
<p>He adds, however, that it’s important to remember that the effectiveness of electrifying transportation ultimately depends on cleaning up the electricity grid.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">Revolutionary changes in transportation, from electric vehicles to ride sharing, could slow global warming – if they’re done right, IPCC says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Reasons for optimism</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man installs solar panels on a roof." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar panels have become increasingly common on homes, businesses and parking lots as prices have fallen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jack-doherty-photovoltaic-project-manager-for-revision-news-photo/825984340">Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC reports discuss several other important steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including shifting energy from fossil fuels to renewable sources, making buildings more energy efficient and improving food production, as well as ways to adapt to changes that can no longer be avoided.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">There are reasons for optimism</a>, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GUE7UxIAAAAJ&hl=en">Robert Lempert</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pR5kLz0AAAAJ&hl=en">Elisabeth Gilmore</a>, co-authors on the IPCC’s report focused on mitigation.</p>
<p>“For example, renewable energy is now generally less expensive than fossil fuels, so a shift to clean energy can often save money,” they wrote. Electric vehicle costs are falling. Communities and infrastructure can be redesigned to better manage natural hazards such as wildfires and storms. Corporate climate risk disclosures can help investors better recognize the hazards and push those companies to build resilience and reduce their climate impact.</p>
<p>“The problem is that these solutions aren’t being deployed fast enough,” Lempert and Gilmore wrote. “In addition to pushback from industries, people’s fear of change has helped maintain the status quo.” Meeting the challenge, they said, starts with embracing innovation and change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">IPCC report: Climate solutions exist, but humanity has to break from the status quo and embrace innovation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The final report in the IPCC’s sixth assessment series says countries will have to cut their greenhouse gas emissions 60% in the next 12 years to keep global warming in check.Stacy Morford, Environment + Climate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021342023-03-20T13:03:29Z2023-03-20T13:03:29ZIPCC report: Climate solutions exist, but humanity has to break from the status quo and embrace innovation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516287/original/file-20230320-20-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C32%2C5464%2C3599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">French lawmakers voted to require solar panel covers in most large parking lots.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/aerial-view-of-solar-panels-on-a-parking-lot-royalty-free-image/1409700815">Teamjackson via iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to feel pessimistic when scientists around the world are warning that climate change has advanced so far, it’s now inevitable that societies will either <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">transform themselves or be transformed</a>. But as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pR5kLz0AAAAJ&hl=en">two of the</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GUE7UxIAAAAJ&hl=en">authors</a> of a recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">international climate report</a>, we also see reason for optimism.</p>
<p>The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">the synthesis report</a> released March 20, 2023, discuss changes ahead, but they also describe how existing solutions can <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">help people adjust</a> to impacts of climate change that can’t be avoided.</p>
<p>The problem is that these solutions aren’t being deployed fast enough. In addition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642">pushback from industries</a>, people’s <a href="https://www.inc.com/scott-mautz/science-says-this-is-why-you-fear-change-and-what-to-do-about-it.html">fear of change</a> has helped maintain the status quo. </p>
<p>To slow climate change and adapt to the damage already underway, the world will have to shift how it generates and uses energy, transports people and goods, designs buildings and grows food. That starts with embracing innovation and change.</p>
<h2>Fear of change can lead to worsening change</h2>
<p>From the industrial revolution to the rise of social media, societies have undergone fundamental changes in how people live and understand their place in the world.</p>
<p>Some transformations are widely regarded as bad, including many of those connected to climate change. For example, about half the world’s coral reef <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-are-dying-as-climate-change-decimates-ocean-ecosystems-vital-to-fish-and-humans-164743">ecosystems have died</a> because of <a href="https://gcrmn.net/2020-report/">increasing heat and acidity in the oceans</a>. Island nations like Kiribati and coastal communities, including in Louisiana and Alaska, are <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/these-photographs-show-how-rising-sea-connects-us-all">losing land into rising seas</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hW9EAkqu6aY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of the Pacific island nation of Kiribati describe the changes they’re experiencing as sea level rises.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other transformations have had both good and bad effects. The <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/03/research-the-industrial-revolution-left-psychological-scars-that-can-still-be-seen-today">industrial revolution</a> vastly raised standards of living for many people, but it spawned inequality, social disruption and environmental destruction.</p>
<p>People often resist transformation because their fear of losing what they have is more powerful than knowing they might gain something better. Wanting to retain things as they are – known as <a href="https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/status-quo-bias/">status quo bias</a> – explains all sorts of individual decisions, from sticking with incumbent politicians to <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rzeckhauser/files/status_quo_bias_in_decision_making.pdf">not enrolling in retirement or health plans</a> even when the alternatives may be rationally better. </p>
<p>This effect may be even more pronounced for larger changes. In the past, delaying inevitable change has led to transformations that are unnecessarily harsh, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-1433.2008.00041.x">collapse of some 13th-century civilizations</a> in what is now the U.S. Southwest. As more people <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/391508/extreme-weather-affected-one-three-americans.aspx">experience the harms of climate change firsthand</a>, they may begin to realize that transformation is inevitable and embrace new solutions.</p>
<h2>A mix of good and bad</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports make clear that the future inevitably involves more and larger climate-related transformations. The question is what the mix of good and bad will be in those transformations.</p>
<p>If countries allow greenhouse gas emissions to continue at a high rate and communities adapt only incrementally to the resulting climate change, the transformations will be mostly forced and <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">mostly bad</a>. </p>
<p>For example, a riverside town might raise its levees as spring flooding worsens. At some point, as the scale of flooding increases, such adaptation hits its limits. The levees necessary to hold back the water may become too expensive or so intrusive that they undermine any benefit of living near the river. The community may wither away.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a boat checks the river side of sandbag levee protecting a community during a flood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riverside communities often scramble to raise levees during floods, like this one in Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dennis-barkemeyer-inspects-a-levee-constructed-around-a-news-photo/114243924">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The riverside community could also take a more deliberate and anticipatory approach to transformation. It might shift to higher ground, turn its riverfront into parkland while developing affordable housing for people who are displaced by the project, and collaborate with upstream communities to expand landscapes that capture floodwaters. Simultaneously, the community can shift to renewable energy and electrified transportation to help slow global warming.</p>
<h2>Optimism resides in deliberate action</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports include numerous examples that can help steer such positive transformation.</p>
<p>For example, renewable energy is now <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">generally less expensive than fossil fuels</a>, so a shift to clean energy can often save money. Communities can also be redesigned to better survive natural hazards through <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-wildfire-resistant-communities-in-a-warming-world-174582">steps such as</a> maintaining natural wildfire breaks and building homes to be less susceptible to burning.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing falling costs and rising adoption of clean energy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=299&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458392/original/file-20220418-22-5bmfni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Costs are falling for key forms of renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Land use and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-sure-bidens-infrastructure-plan-can-hold-up-to-climate-change-and-save-money-153869">design of infrastructure,</a> such as roads and bridges, can be based on forward-looking climate information. <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-home-buyers-are-ignoring-rising-flood-risks-despite-clear-warnings-and-rising-insurance-premiums-179603">Insurance pricing</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-proposes-far-reaching-climate-disclosure-rules-for-companies-heres-where-the-rules-may-be-vulnerable-to-legal-challenges-179534">corporate climate risk disclosures</a> can help the public recognize hazards in the products they buy and companies they support as investors.</p>
<p>No one group can enact these changes alone. Everyone must be involved, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-176255">governments</a> that can <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php">mandate and incentivize changes</a>, businesses that often control decisions about greenhouse gas emissions, and citizens who can turn up the pressure on both.</p>
<h2>Transformation is inevitable</h2>
<p>Efforts to both <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">adapt to</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">mitigate climate change</a> have advanced substantially in the last five years, but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">not fast enough</a> to prevent the transformations already underway.</p>
<p>Doing more to disrupt the status quo with proven solutions can help smooth these transformations and create a better future in the process.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an update to an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-transform-how-we-live-but-these-tech-and-policy-experts-see-reason-for-optimism-180961">originally published</a> April 18, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Lempert receives funding from the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Transportation and Culver City Forward. He was coordinating lead author of the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 1, and is affiliated with RAND Corp.; Harvard; SCoPEx (Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment) Independent Advisory Committee; National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Decision Science and Analysis Technical Advisory Committee (TAC); Council on Foreign Relations; Evolving Logic; and the City of Santa Monica Commission on Environmental, Sustainability, and Environmental Justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisabeth Gilmore receives funding from Minerva Research Initiative administered by the Office of Basic Research and the Office of Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Science Foundation. She is affiliated with Carleton University, Rutgers University, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and was a lead author on the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p>Two experts in policy and technology who were also co-authors of an international climate assessment see reasons for optimism.Robert Lempert, Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate SchoolElisabeth Gilmore, Associate Professor of Climate Change, Technology and Policy, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950802022-11-22T13:29:29Z2022-11-22T13:29:29ZAfter COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit – here’s what we can still do about it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496641/original/file-20221122-13-g9a1us.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C53%2C5035%2C3293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young activists have been pushing to keep a 1.5-Celsius limit, knowing their future is at stake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP27ClimateSummit/2443020be8db4d02ab7185c517ec5017/photo">AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world could still, theoretically, meet its goal of keeping global warming <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">under 1.5 degrees Celsius</a>, a level many scientists <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/">consider a dangerous threshold</a>. Realistically, that’s unlikely to happen.</p>
<p>Part of the problem was evident at <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">COP27</a>, the United Nations climate conference in Egypt.</p>
<p>While nations’ climate negotiators were successfully fighting to “keep 1.5 alive” as the global goal in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop27/auv">official agreement</a>, reached Nov. 20, 2022, some of their countries were negotiating <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/11/tanzania-signs-natural-gas-deal-with-equinor-and-shell">new fossil fuel deals</a>, driven in part by the global energy crisis. Any expansion of fossil fuels – the primary driver of climate change – makes keeping warming under 1.5 C (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times much harder.</p>
<p>Attempts at the climate talks to get all countries to agree to phase out coal, oil, natural gas and all fossil fuel subsidies failed. And countries have done <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">little to strengthen their commitments</a> to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the past year.</p>
<p><iframe id="cMxZJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cMxZJ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>There have been positive moves, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/these-machines-scrub-greenhouse-gases-from-the-air-an-inventor-of-direct-air-capture-technology-shows-how-it-works-172306">advances in technology</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/levelized-cost-of-energy">falling prices for renewable energy</a> and countries committing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fixing-methane-leaks-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry-can-be-a-climate-game-changer-one-that-pays-for-itself-194346">cut their methane emissions</a>. </p>
<p>But all signs now point toward a scenario in which the world will <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912">overshoot the 1.5 C limit</a>, likely by a large amount. The World Meteorological Organization estimates global temperatures have a <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold">50-50 chance of reaching 1.5C</a> of warming, at least temporarily, in the next five years.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean humanity can just give up.</p>
<h2>Why 1.5 degrees?</h2>
<p>During the last quarter of the 20th century, <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/">climate change due to human activities</a> became an issue of survival for the future of life on the planet. Since at least the 1980s, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1103618">scientific evidence for global warming has been increasingly firm </a>, and scientists have established limits of global warming that cannot be exceeded to avoid moving from a global climate crisis to a planetary-scale climate catastrophe.</p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">consensus</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">among climate scientists</a>, myself included, that 1.5 C of global warming is a threshold beyond which humankind would dangerously interfere with the climate system. </p>
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly?time=earliest..latest" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>We know from the reconstruction of historical climate records that, over the past 12,000 years, life was able to thrive on Earth at a global annual average temperature of around 14 C (57 F). As one would expect from the behavior of a complex system, the temperatures varied, but they never warmed by more than about 1.5 C during this <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pre-holocene-climate-is-returning-and-it-wont-be-fun-27742">relatively stable climate regime</a>.</p>
<p>Today, with the world <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">1.2 C warmer</a> than pre-industrial times, people are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">already experiencing the effects</a> of climate change in more locations, more forms and at higher frequencies and amplitudes. </p>
<p>Climate model projections clearly show that <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/predictions-future-global-climate">warming beyond</a> 1.5 C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">dramatically increase the risk</a> of extreme weather events, more frequent wildfires with higher intensity, sea level rise, and changes in flood and drought patterns with implications for food systems collapse, among other adverse impacts. And there can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">abrupt transitions</a>, the impacts of which will result in major challenges on local to global scales.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MR6-sgRqW0k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tipping points: Warmer ocean water is contributing to the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise with global consequences.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Steep reductions and negative emissions</h2>
<p>Meeting the 1.5 goal at this point will <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report">require steep reductions</a> in carbon dioxide emissions, but that alone isn’t enough. It will <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/28_EASAC%20Report%20on%20Negative%20Emission%20Technologies.pdf">also require “negative emissions”</a> to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide that human activities have already put into the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for decades to centuries, so just stopping emissions doesn’t stop its warming effect. Technology exists that can pull carbon dioxide out of the air and lock it away. It’s still only operating at a very small scale, but corporate agreements like <a href="https://climeworks.com/news/climeworks-extends-collaboration-with-microsoft">Microsoft’s 10-year commitment to pay for carbon removed</a> could help scale it up.</p>
<p>A report in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that meeting the 1.5 C goal <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">would require cutting</a> carbon dioxide emissions by 50% globally by 2030 – plus significant <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-10-ways-negative-emissions-could-slow-climate-change/">negative emissions</a> from both technology and natural sources by 2050 up to about half of present-day emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496592/original/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A direct air capture project in Iceland stores captured carbon dioxide underground in basalt formations, where chemical reactions mineralize it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climeworks.com/news/climeworks-launches-orca">Climeworks</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can we still hold warming to 1.5 C?</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> was signed in 2015, countries have made some progress in their <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">pledges to reduce emissions</a>, but at a pace that is way too slow to keep warming below 1.5 C. Carbon dioxide <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-region">emissions are still rising</a>, as are carbon dioxide <a href="https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/">concentrations in the atmosphere</a>.</p>
<p>A recent report by the United Nations Environment Program <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">highlights the shortfalls</a>. The world is on track to produce 58 gigatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 – more than twice where it should be for the path to 1.5 C. The result would be an average global temperature increase of 2.7 C (4.9 F) in this century, nearly double the 1.5 C target. </p>
<p>Given the gap between countries’ actual commitments and the emissions cuts required to keep temperatures to 1.5 C, it appears <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">practically impossible</a> to stay within the 1.5 C goal.</p>
<p>Global emissions aren’t close to plateauing, and with the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere, it is very likely that the world will reach the 1.5 C warming level <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">within the next five to 10 years</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/496584/original/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With current policies and pledges, the world will far exceed the 1.5 C goal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/">Climate Action Tracker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How large the overshoot will be and for how long it will exist critically hinges on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">accelerating emissions cuts and scaling up</a> negative emissions solutions, including carbon capture technology.</p>
<p>At this point, nothing short of an extraordinary and unprecedented effort to cut emissions will save the 1.5 C goal. We <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">know what can be done</a> – the question is whether people are ready for a radical and immediate change of the actions that lead to climate change, primarily a transformation away from a fossil fuel-based energy system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Schlosser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A leading climate scientist explains why going over 1.5 degrees Celsius puts the world in a danger zone.Peter Schlosser, Vice President and Vice Provost of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937272022-11-03T13:47:49Z2022-11-03T13:47:49ZCOP27 explained by experts: what is it and why should I care?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492956/original/file-20221102-12-28eeah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock/rafapress</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://cop27.eg/">COP27 is the 27th Conference of the Parties</a> (countries) that signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The convention was established at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, and has been ratified by 198 countries. They agreed to stabilise the production of greenhouse gases in order to prevent dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>Since then, the Conference of the Parties has been hosted in a different country each year. These conferences broadly provide a platform for the negotiation of international climate change treaties. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-what-to-expect-193556">COP27: what to expect</a>
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<p>The very first treaty acknowledged that the responsibility for action was different for developed and developing countries, because developed countries were responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Despite some gains, commitment to these treaties has not translated into the action necessary to shift the course of global climate change. The recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report</a> states that global average temperatures have already reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels and that warming of over 1.5°C is all but inevitable unless drastic action is taken.</p>
<p>Everyone is affected by climate change, but some people and regions are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">more vulnerable</a> than others. Regions that will experience the most adverse impacts of climate change are West, Central and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic. Populations living in informal settlements will have the worst of it. </p>
<p>Vulnerability to climate change impacts is driven by socioeconomic, political and environmental factors. African countries have <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">already experienced</a> loss and damage due to climate change. For example, food production, economic output and biodiversity have all declined and more people are at risk of dying due to climate change in African countries. </p>
<p>The COP27 is therefore important because that is where decisions are made about how to respond to climate change.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-things-a-climate-scientist-wants-world-leaders-to-know-ahead-of-cop27-193534">3 things a climate scientist wants world leaders to know ahead of COP27</a>
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<h2>Climate change treaties</h2>
<p>Three international treaties have been adopted on international climate change cooperation. They led to the development of different bodies which all convene under the banner of the COP. COP is where they meet, negotiate and evaluate progress, even though COP technically only refers to the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. </p>
<p>The first treaty was the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. </p>
<p>The second was the Kyoto Protocol, established in 1997. Countries made commitments to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol was based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. It acknowledged that because of their higher levels of economic development, developed countries could and should take greater responsibility to reduce emissions. </p>
<p>The third and most recent treaty is the 2015 Paris Agreement. It covers climate change mitigation, adaptation and financing and aims to limit the rise in temperatures to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All signatories need to develop a non-binding plan for climate change mitigation, including reducing emissions. They also have to report on progress. </p>
<p>A key weakness of the Paris Agreement is that it is non-binding. Also, the commitments are self-determined. A <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now">recent study</a> found that even if all countries did meet their commitments, it would not be enough to limit warming to below 2°C. </p>
<p>It is important to understand and engage in these processes as the impacts of climate change are increasing globally. The increase in the global average temperature is one of several climate impacts. Others <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">include</a> increased likelihood of droughts or floods, and increased intensity of storms and wildfires. </p>
<p>The frequency of climate events will increase as temperatures rise. There is an urgent need for action to prevent global warming from rising above 2°C. Temperatures over 2°C <a href="https://ocean-climate.org/en/ipcc-report-urgent-adaptation-needed-to-address-rising-impacts-of-climate-change-on-the-ocean-and-populations/">will result in</a> irreversible climate impacts such as sea level rise, and affect far more people than an increase of 1.5°C.</p>
<h2>Responses to climate change</h2>
<p>There are three policy areas which have emerged to respond to climate change. </p>
<p>The first is mitigation – the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to stabilise the climate. Examples of mitigation include replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, or developing electrified public transport to replace private vehicles powered by combustion engines.</p>
<p>The second is adaptation – interventions which would support climate resilience and reduce vulnerability. Examples include improved water management and conservation to reduce risk of drought, initiatives to improve food security and support for biodiversity. </p>
<p>The last policy area deals with loss and damage. <a href="https://www.c2es.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Loss-and-Damage-Issues-and-Options-for-cop27.pdf">Loss and damage</a> refers to “the economic and non-economic damages associated with slow onset events and extreme weather events caused by global warming and the tools and institutions that identify and mitigate such risks.” Interventions to address loss and damage can include risk management support and finance which is often framed as climate reparations. </p>
<p>Mitigation and adaptation are well understood and established within climate policy. And they have finance mechanisms within international treaties, even though existing commitments to these mechanisms have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-00990-2">not materialised</a> in practice, particularly when it comes to adaptation. Loss and damage, however, has received far less attention in international treaties and negotiations.</p>
<h2>Highlighting loss and damage</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/loss-and-damage/warsaw-international-mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20COP%20established%20the%20Warsaw,that%20are%20particularly%20vulnerable%20to">Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage</a> was established in 2013 to provide a framework to address loss and damage. It aims to improve understanding of risk management approaches, increase coordination and dialogue among stakeholders and enhance action and support. </p>
<p>The issue of loss and damage was incorporated into the Paris Agreement, but without any specific commitments around it. During negotiations at COP25, the Santiago Network was set up to avert, minimise and address loss and damage for developing countries but it focuses mostly on technical assistance rather than finance. At COP26 (in 2021) there was an <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop26-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-glasgow/">agreement to fund the Santiago Network</a>, but the institutional framework is not yet finalised.</p>
<p>Loss and damage was raised as an important issue to be addressed during COP26. There were some promising moves, such as the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop26-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-glasgow/">pledging</a> £2 million towards a loss and damage finance facility. But many rich nations did not support this.</p>
<p>The negotiations led to the proposal to establish the Glasgow Finance Facility for loss and damage. But the wording of the decision was <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop26-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-glasgow/">changed at the last minute</a> to the Glasgow Dialogues, which committed to discussing arrangements for funding activities to avert, minimise and address loss and damage. This change has delayed any real financial support for loss and damage in the short term. </p>
<p>This was very disappointing for developing country parties, who will be pushing once more to secure financing for loss and damage at COP27, and holding other countries to account for the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/">US$100 billion annual commitment towards climate finance</a> which has yet to materialise. </p>
<p>Many climate activists from the global south feel that if a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/climate/pakistan-floods-global-warming.html">financing facility for loss and damage</a> is not discussed at COP27, it will be a failed conference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Imraan Valodia receives funding from a range of international foundations that fund academic research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Taylor receives funding from the African Climate Foundation. </span></em></p>COP conferences broadly provide a platform for the negotiation of international climate change agreements.Imraan Valodia, Pro Vice-Chancellor: Climate, Sustainability and Inequality and Director Southern Centre for Inequality Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, University of the WitwatersrandJulia Taylor, Researcher: Climate and Inequality, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1809612022-04-18T12:28:04Z2022-04-18T12:28:04ZClimate change will transform how we live, but these tech and policy experts see reason for optimism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458393/original/file-20220418-129082-8s11rq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C3000%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels have become increasingly common on homes as prices have fallen.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jack-doherty-photovoltaic-project-manager-for-revision-news-photo/825984340">Ben McCanna/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to feel pessimistic when scientists around the world are warning that climate change has advanced so far, it’s now inevitable that societies will either <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">transform themselves or be transformed</a>. But as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pR5kLz0AAAAJ&hl=en">two of the</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GUE7UxIAAAAJ&hl=en">authors</a> of a recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">international climate report</a>, we also see reason for optimism.</p>
<p>The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change discuss changes ahead, but they also describe how existing solutions can <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">help people adjust</a> to impacts of climate change that can’t be avoided.</p>
<p>The problem is that these solutions aren’t being deployed fast enough. In addition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642">push-back from industries</a>, people’s <a href="https://www.inc.com/scott-mautz/science-says-this-is-why-you-fear-change-and-what-to-do-about-it.html">fear of change</a> has helped maintain the status quo. </p>
<p>To slow climate change and adapt to the damage already underway, the world will have to shift how it generates and uses energy, transports people and goods, designs buildings and grows food. That starts with embracing innovation and change.</p>
<h2>Fear of change can lead to worsening change</h2>
<p>From the industrial revolution to the rise of social media, societies have undergone fundamental changes in how people live and understand their place in the world.</p>
<p>Some transformations are widely regarded as bad, including many of those connected to climate change. For example, about half the world’s coral reef <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-are-dying-as-climate-change-decimates-ocean-ecosystems-vital-to-fish-and-humans-164743">ecosystems have died</a> because of <a href="https://gcrmn.net/2020-report/">increasing heat and acidity in the oceans</a>. Island nations like Kiribati and coastal communities, including in Louisiana and Alaska, are <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/these-photographs-show-how-rising-sea-connects-us-all">losing land into rising seas</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of the Pacific island nation of Kiribati describe the changes they’re experiencing as sea level rises.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Other transformations have had both good and bad effects. The <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/03/research-the-industrial-revolution-left-psychological-scars-that-can-still-be-seen-today">industrial revolution</a> vastly raised standards of living for many people, but it spawned inequality, social disruption and environmental destruction.</p>
<p>People often resist transformation because their fear of losing what they have is more powerful than knowing they might gain something better. Wanting to retain things as they are – known as <a href="https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/status-quo-bias/">status quo bias</a> – explains all sorts of individual decisions, from sticking with incumbent politicians to <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rzeckhauser/files/status_quo_bias_in_decision_making.pdf">not enrolling in retirement or health plans</a> even when the alternatives may be rationally better. </p>
<p>This effect may be even more pronounced for larger changes. In the past, delaying inevitable change has led to transformations that are unnecessarily harsh, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-1433.2008.00041.x">collapse of some 13th-century civilizations</a> in what is now the U.S. Southwest. As more people <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/391508/extreme-weather-affected-one-three-americans.aspx">experience the harms of climate change firsthand</a>, they may begin to realize that transformation is inevitable and embrace new solutions. </p>
<h2>A mix of good and bad</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports make clear that the future inevitably involves more and larger climate-related transformations. The question is what the mix of good and bad will be in those transformations.</p>
<p>If countries allow greenhouse gas emissions to continue at a high rate and communities adapt only incrementally to the resulting climate change, the transformations will be mostly forced and <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">mostly bad</a>. </p>
<p>For example, a riverside town might raise its levees as spring flooding worsens. At some point, as the scale of flooding increases, such adaptation hits its limits. The levees necessary to hold back the water may become too expensive or so intrusive that they undermine any benefit of living near the river. The community may wither away.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a boat checks the river side of sandbag levee protecting a community during a flood." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457261/original/file-20220410-42486-7gxv0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Riverside communities often scramble to raise levees during floods, like this one in Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dennis-barkemeyer-inspects-a-levee-constructed-around-a-news-photo/114243924">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The riverside community could also take a more deliberate and anticipatory approach to transformation. It might shift to higher ground, turn its riverfront into parkland while developing affordable housing for people who are displaced by the project, and collaborate with upstream communities to expand landscapes that capture floodwaters. Simultaneously, the community can shift to renewable energy and electrified transportation to help slow global warming.</p>
<h2>Optimism resides in deliberate action</h2>
<p>The IPCC reports include numerous examples that can help steer such positive transformation.</p>
<p>For example, renewable energy is now <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">generally less expensive than fossil fuels</a>, so a shift to clean energy can often save money. Communities can also be redesigned to better survive natural hazards through <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-wildfire-resistant-communities-in-a-warming-world-174582">steps such as</a> maintaining natural wildfire breaks and building homes to be less susceptible to burning.</p>
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<span class="caption">Costs are falling for key forms of renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></span>
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<p>Land use and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-sure-bidens-infrastructure-plan-can-hold-up-to-climate-change-and-save-money-153869">design of infrastructure,</a> such as roads and bridges, can be based on forward-looking climate information. <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-home-buyers-are-ignoring-rising-flood-risks-despite-clear-warnings-and-rising-insurance-premiums-179603">Insurance pricing</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-proposes-far-reaching-climate-disclosure-rules-for-companies-heres-where-the-rules-may-be-vulnerable-to-legal-challenges-179534">corporate climate risk disclosures</a> can help the public recognize hazards in the products they buy and companies they support as investors.</p>
<p>No one group can enact these changes alone. Everyone must be involved, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-176255">governments</a> that can <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/renewable-sources/incentives.php">mandate and incentivize changes</a>, businesses that often control decisions about greenhouse gas emissions, and citizens who can turn up the pressure on both.</p>
<h2>Transformation is inevitable</h2>
<p>Efforts to both <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">adapt to</a> and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">mitigate climate change</a> have advanced substantially in the last five years, but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">not fast enough</a> to prevent the transformations already underway.</p>
<p>Doing more to disrupt the status quo with proven solutions can help smooth these transformations and create a better future in the process.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Lempert receives funding from the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Transportation and Culver City Forward. He was coordinating lead author of the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 1, and is affiliated with RAND Corp.; Harvard; SCoPEx (Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment) Independent Advisory Committee; National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Decision Science and Analysis Technical Advisory Committee (TAC); Council on Foreign Relations; Evolving Logic; and the City of Santa Monica Commission on Environmental, Sustainability, and Environmental Justice.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisabeth Gilmore receives funding from Minerva Research Initiative administered by the Office of Basic Research and the Office of Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Science Foundation. She is affiliated with Carleton University, Rutgers University, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and was a lead author on the IPCC WGII Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p>Solutions already exist. What’s holding humanity back is the will to get past the status quo and embrace innovation.Robert Lempert, Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate SchoolElisabeth Gilmore, Associate Professor of Climate Change, Technology and Policy, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795352022-04-04T16:21:29Z2022-04-04T16:21:29ZRevolutionary changes in transportation, from electric vehicles to ride sharing, could slow global warming – if they’re done right, IPCC says<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455110/original/file-20220329-17-1o5a40n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C7814%2C5189&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric vehicle sales are growing quickly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/O63S96_qn8c">Michael Fousert/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, revolutionary changes are under way in transportation. More electric vehicles are on the road, people are taking advantage of sharing mobility services such as Uber and Lyft, and the rise in telework during the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted the way people think about commuting.</p>
<p>Transportation is a growing source of the global greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, accounting for <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-co2-emissions-by-sector-2019">23% of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions worldwide in 2019</a> and about <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions">29% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>The systemic changes under way in the transportation sector could begin lowering that emissions footprint. But will they reduce emissions enough?</p>
<p>In a new <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> released April 4, 2022, scientists examined the latest research on efforts to mitigate climate change. The report concludes that falling costs for renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries, in addition to policy changes, have slowed the growth of climate change in the past decade, but that deep, immediate cuts are necessary. Emissions will have to peak by 2025 to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), a <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> goal, the report says.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing falling costs and rising adoption" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456183/original/file-20220404-12-pazc8d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Costs are falling for key forms of renewable energy and EV batteries, and adoption of these technologies is rising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></span>
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<p>The transportation chapter, <a href="https://its.ucdavis.edu/people/alan-jenn/">which I contributed to</a>, homed in on transportation transformations – some just starting and others expanding – that in the most aggressive scenarios could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 80% to 90% of current levels by 2050. That sort of drastic reduction would require a major, rapid rethinking of how people get around globally.</p>
<h2>The future of EVs</h2>
<p>All-electric vehicles have grown dramatically since the Tesla Roadster and Nissan Leaf arrived on the market a little over a decade ago, following the popularity of hybrids.</p>
<p>In 2021 alone, the sales of electric passenger vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, doubled worldwide to 6.6 million, <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales">about 9% of all car sales</a> that year.</p>
<p>Strong regulatory policies have encouraged the production of electric vehicles, including <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-vehicle-program/about">California’s Zero Emission Vehicle regulation</a>, which requires automakers to produce a certain number of zero-emission vehicles based on their total vehicles sold in California; the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/transport-emissions/road-transport-reducing-co2-emissions-vehicles/co2-emission-performance-standards-cars-and-vans_en">European Union’s CO2 emissions standards</a> for new vehicles; and <a href="https://dieselnet.com/standards/cn/nev.php">China’s New Energy Vehicle policy</a>, all of which have helped push EV adoption to where we are today.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Rivian EV pickup sits in front of a TV studio in New York with people walking around it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455949/original/file-20220403-21-atn027.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pickups and SUVs, which typically have much lower gas mileage than cars, make up the majority of new U.S. car sales. Electric versions could be game-changers for emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rivian-electric-truck-is-displayed-in-front-of-the-nasdaq-news-photo/1352478252">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Beyond passenger vehicles, many micro-mobility options – such as autorickshaws, scooters and bikes – as well as buses, have been electrified. <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/">As the cost of lithium-ion batteries decreases</a>, these transportation options will become increasingly affordable and further boost sales of battery-powered vehicles that traditionally have run on fossil fuels.</p>
<p>An important aspect to remember about electrifying the transportation system is that its <a href="https://evtool.ucsusa.org/">ability to cut greenhouse gas emissions ultimately depends on how clean the electricity grid</a> is. China, for example, is aiming for <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales">20% of its vehicles to be electric</a> by 2025, but its <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015002022">electric grid is still heavily reliant on coal</a>.</p>
<p>With the global trends toward more renewable generation, these vehicles will be connected with fewer carbon emissions over time. There are also many developing and potentially promising co-benefits of electromobility when coupled with the power system. The batteries within electric vehicles have the potential to <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-my-electric-car-power-my-house-not-yet-for-most-drivers-but-vehicle-to-home-charging-is-coming-163332">act as storage devices</a> for the grid, which can assist in stabilizing the intermittency of renewable resources in the power sector, among many other benefits.</p>
<p>Other areas of transportation are more challenging to electrify. Larger and heavier vehicles generally aren’t as conducive to electrification because the size and weight of the batteries needed rapidly becomes untenable.</p>
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<img alt="Cranes load shipping containers onto a ship docked in port." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405764/original/file-20210610-13-1t90cai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ships that can connect to electric power in port can avoid burning fuel that produces greenhouse gases and pollution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/PXHCvMmFiPw">Ernesto Velázquez/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>For some heavy-duty trucks, ships and airplanes, alternative fuels such as hydrogen, advanced biofuels and synthetic fuels are being explored as replacements for fossil fuels. Most aren’t economically feasible yet, and substantial advances in the technology are still needed to ensure they are either low- or zero-carbon.</p>
<h2>Other ways to cut emissions from transportation</h2>
<p>While new fuel and vehicle technologies are often highlighted as decarbonization solutions, behavioral and other systemic changes will also be needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions dramatically from this sector. We are already in the midst of these changes.</p>
<p><strong>Telecommuting:</strong> During the COVID-19 pandemic, the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3662">explosion of teleworking</a> and video conferencing reduced travel, and, with it, emissions associated with commuting. While some of that will rebound, telework is likely to continue for many sectors of the economy.</p>
<p><strong>Shared mobility:</strong> Some shared mobility options, like bike and scooter sharing programs, can get more people out of vehicles entirely.</p>
<p>Car-sharing and on-demand services such as Uber and Lyft also have the potential to reduce emissions if they use high-efficiency or zero-emission vehicles, or if their services lean more toward car pooling, with each driver picking up multiple passengers. Unfortunately, there is substantial uncertainty about the impact of these services. They might also <a href="https://theconversation.com/spread-of-self-driving-cars-could-cause-more-pollution-unless-the-electric-grid-transforms-radically-101508">increase vehicle use</a> and, with it, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X18316449?casa_token=ZZAdxKGssnYAAAAA:z1Y1j5KkYWME6RESdX4gsPhB6PRgPb0CTKD5FX3Y_opPnfi_WJlkxgc5qRmFQsfPn26VD5PsyQ">greenhouse gas emissions</a>.</p>
<p>New policies such as the <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/clean-miles-standard">California Clean Miles Standard</a> are helping to push companies like Uber and Lyft to use cleaner vehicles and increase their passenger loads, though it remains to be seen whether other regions will adopt similar policies.</p>
<p><strong>Public transit-friendly cities:</strong> Another systemic change involves urban planning and design. Transportation in urban areas is responsible for approximately 8% of global carbon dioxide emissions.</p>
<p>Efficient city planning and land use can reduce travel demand and shift transportation modes, from cars to public transit, through strategies that avoid urban sprawl and disincentivize personal cars. These improvements not only decrease greenhouse gas emissions, but can decrease congestion, air pollution and noise, while improving the safety of transportation systems.</p>
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<h2>How do these advances translate to lower emissions?</h2>
<p>Much of the uncertainty in how much technological change and other systemic shifts in transportation affects global warming is related to the speed of transition.</p>
<p>The new IPCC report includes several potential scenarios for how much improvements in transportation will be able to cut emissions. On average, the scenarios indicate that the carbon intensity of the transportation sector would need to decrease by about 50% by 2050 and as much as 91% by 2100 when combined with a cleaner electricity grid to stay within the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7 F) target for global warming.</p>
<p>These decreases would require a complete reversal of current trends of increasing emissions in the transportation sector, but the recent advances in transportation provide many opportunities to meet this challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Jenn receives or has received funding from the Department of Energy, the Sloan Foundation, and the Transportation Research Board and is a contributing author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report for Working Group 3.</span></em></p>A new international report on climate change finds rapid changes could cut emissions from transportation by 80% to 90%. Three behavior change trends could bring big improvements.Alan Jenn, Assistant Professional Researcher in Transportation, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750442022-01-25T01:46:01Z2022-01-25T01:46:01ZCOVID will dominate, but New Zealand will also have to face the ‘triple planetary crisis’ this year<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442400/original/file-20220124-15-qgr0zb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C254%2C5595%2C3260&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lynn Grieveson - Newsroom via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As New Zealand’s government prepares to deal with a looming <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460152/covid-19-isolation-rules-should-ease-once-omicron-takes-off-more-rapid-antigen-tests-needed-baker">Omicron outbreak</a>, this won’t be the only major issue it will have to tackle this year.</p>
<p>2022 will be important for environmental and climate action. Several key developments are expected throughout the year, both in New Zealand and internationally, focusing on climate change and biodiversity — and how these crises overlap with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-summers-are-getting-hotter-and-humans-arent-the-only-ones-feeling-the-effects-174530">New Zealand summers are getting hotter – and humans aren’t the only ones feeling the effects</a>
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<p>In February and early April, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) will publish the next two parts of its Sixth Assessment (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">AR6</a>). These reports will provide the basis for global negotiations at the next climate summit scheduled to be held in Egypt in November. </p>
<p>The February report will focus on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg2/">impacts and adaptation</a> and the April report on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">mitigation</a> of climate change. Together, they will assess the global and regional impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems and on human societies, as well as opportunities to cut emissions. </p>
<p>They will identify points of particular vulnerability, consider the practicalities of technological innovations and weigh the costs and trade-offs of low-carbon opportunities. Both reports will present a definitive statement of where impacts of climate change are being felt and what governments and other decision makers can do about it. </p>
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<h2>Multiple crises</h2>
<p>Climate change tends to dominate headlines about the environment. But biodiversity loss and accelerating rates of species extinction pose an equal threat to our economies, livelihoods and quality of life. </p>
<p>A UN <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/">Global Assessment Report</a> on biodiversity and ecosystem services predicts the loss of one million species during the coming decades. It foresees serious consequences for our food, water, health and social security. </p>
<p>New Zealand is not immune from this global crisis. About one third of our species are listed as <a href="https://www.sdg.org.nz/2019/04/15/biodiversity-crisis-in-aotearoa-new-zealand/">threatened</a>.</p>
<p>In April, the <a href="https://www.cbd.int/conferences/2021-2022">UN Biodiversity Conference</a> in Kunming, China, will launch a new global biodiversity framework to guide conservation and sustainable management of ecosystems until 2030. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-world-leaders-are-negotiating-new-targets-to-protect-nature-by-2030-the-story-so-far-169848">Biodiversity: world leaders are negotiating new targets to protect nature by 2030 – the story so far</a>
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<p>Expect to see intense negotiations on the current draft framework as states try to balance the need to address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss, without endangering economic priorities, including post-COVID recovery.</p>
<h2>New Zealand’s plan to cut emissions</h2>
<p>In May, the government is expected to release its first emissions reduction plan (<a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/LMS282043.html">ERP</a>), in response to the Climate Change Commission’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/">advice</a> on how New Zealand can meet its domestic and international targets. </p>
<p>The plan will set out policies and strategies to keep the country within its emissions budget for 2022-25 and on track to meet future budgets.</p>
<p>Under the Climate Change Response Act 2002, the government is required to <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/LMS282028.html">set emissions budgets</a> for every three to four-year period between 2022 and 2050 and to publish emissions reduction plans for each. </p>
<p>The first plan looks likely to come at a difficult time for the economy. Businesses have already contended with COVID-related lockdowns and uncertainty and may soon be challenged by staffing shortages in the wake of the Omicron outbreak. </p>
<p>It will be tricky to balance the need for significant action to reduce emissions while keeping business and the wider community on board. Expect a wide-ranging plan with sector-specific strategies for transport, energy, industry, agriculture, waste and forestry, but little detail on agriculture.</p>
<h2>Half a century since first environment summit</h2>
<p>In 1972, the UN Conference on the Human Environment took place in Stockholm, Sweden. It was the first international conference to make the environment a major issue. </p>
<p>Fifty years on, in June this year <a href="https://www.stockholm50.global/">Stockholm +50</a> will mark a half-century of global environmental action, and refocus world leaders’ attention on the “<a href="https://www.stockholm50.global/">triple planetary crisis</a>” of climate, biodiversity and pollution. </p>
<p>The aim is to accelerate progress on the UN’s <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a>, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> and the global biodiversity framework, while making sure countries’ COVID-19 recovery plans don’t jeopardise these. Expect growing demand for more global recognition of a “<a href="https://globalpactenvironment.org/en/">human right to a healthy environment</a>” to leverage more effective environmental action.</p>
<p>On the domestic front, the national adaptation plan (<a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-you-can-do/have-your-say/climate-change-engagement/#national-adaptation-plan">NAP</a>) is due in August. This will set out how the government should respond to the most significant climate change risks facing Aotearoa. </p>
<p>These risks range from financial systems to the built environment and have already been identified in the first <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/adapting-to-climate-change/first-national-climate-change-risk-assessment-for-new-zealand/">national climate change risk assessment</a>. Public consultation will take place in April and May.</p>
<h2>The decade of action</h2>
<p>The UN’s annual climate summit, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/events/2021-un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-27/">COP27</a>, will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November. Last year, COP26 drew unparalleled public attention and generated some positive new climate pledges. </p>
<p>One major success was an agreement that nations revisit and strengthen their <a href="https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/topics/climate-change/reflecting-on-cop26-what-were-the-key-outcomes">nationally determined contributions</a> by the end of 2022. But the summit was generally criticised for failing to secure commitments from high-emitting countries to keep global temperatures from climbing beyond 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The overarching aim to “keep 1.5°C alive” will be more urgent than ever. A particular concern is how effectively civil society will be able to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/21/cop27-is-in-egypt-next-year-but-will-anyone-be-allowed-to-protest">bring pressure</a> to bear on governments. Protests and activities are likely to be significantly limited by the Egyptian host government. </p>
<p>In the build-up to COP27, expect significant pressure on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/05/historical-climate-emissions-big-polluting-nations">big polluter states</a> to deliver more ambitious commitments to cut emissions, but also less flamboyant and free protests in Egypt.</p>
<p>The UN has called 2020-2030 the “<a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/decade-of-action/">decade of action</a>”. The chance remains to avoid runaway climate change, protect biodiversity and stabilise our ecosystems. It’s imperative that this year, the third of this decade, is one that really counts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the ongoing pandemic, the agenda for 2022 includes key developments to tackle the connected crises of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1726902022-01-10T19:12:10Z2022-01-10T19:12:10ZScientists call for a moratorium on climate change research until governments take real action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434597/original/file-20211130-26-1xeaq1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C113%2C5356%2C2957&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Tama/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Decades of scientific evidence demonstrate unequivocally that human activities jeopardise life on Earth. Dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system compounds many other drivers of global change. </p>
<p>Governments concur: the science is settled. But governments have failed to act at the scale and pace required. What should climate change scientists do?</p>
<p>There is an unwritten social contract between science and society. Public investment in science is intended to improve understanding about our world and support beneficial societal outcomes. However, for climate change, the science-society contract is now broken. </p>
<p>The failure to act decisively is an indictment on governments and political leaders across the board, but climate change scientists cannot be absolved of responsibility. </p>
<p>As we write in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.2008855">article about this conundrum</a>, the tragedy is the compulsion to provide ever more evidence when the phenomena are well understood and the science widely accepted. The tragedy is being gaslighted into thinking the impasse is somehow our fault, and we need to do science differently: crafting new scientific institutions, strategies, collaborations and methodologies. </p>
<p>Yet, global carbon dioxide emissions are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104">60% higher today</a> than they were in 1990, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) published its first assessment. At some point we need to recognise the problem is political and that further climate change science may even divert attention away from where the problem truly lies. </p>
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<img alt="Graph that shows governments' lack of action on climate change" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=884&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1112&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434581/original/file-20211129-15-1pzdok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1112&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Governments agree that the science is settled but scientists are compelled to do more research despite inadequate government action and worsening climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Was COP26 too little, too late?</h2>
<p>The outcome of COP26, summarised in the draft <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf">Glasgow Climate Pact</a>, includes some progress, including an agreement to begin reducing coal-fired power, removing subsidies on other fossil fuels, and a commitment to double adaptation finance to improve climate resilience for countries with the lowest incomes. </p>
<p>But many of the world’s leading scientists argue that this is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03431-4">too little, too late</a>. They note the failure of COP26 to translate the 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> into practical reality to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. </p>
<p>Even if COP26 commitments are fulfilled, there is a strong likelihood that humanity and life on Earth face a precarious future. </p>
<p>What are climate change scientists to do in the face of this evidence? We see three possible options — two that are untenable, one that is unpalatable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-look-up-hollywoods-primer-on-climate-denial-illustrates-5-myths-that-fuel-rejection-of-science-174266">'Don’t Look Up': Hollywood's primer on climate denial illustrates 5 myths that fuel rejection of science</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where to from here for climate change scientists?</h2>
<p>The first option is to collect more evidence and hope for action. Continue the IPCC process that stays politically neutral and abstains from policy prescriptions. A recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03433-2">editorial in Nature</a> called on scientists to do just that: stay engaged to support future climate COPs. </p>
<p>However, this choice not only ignores the complex relationship between science and policy, it runs counter to the logic of our scientific training to reflect and act on the evidence. We know why global warming is happening and what to do. We have known for a long time. </p>
<p>Governments just haven’t taken the necessary action. In a recent Nature <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02990-w">survey</a>, six in ten of the IPCC scientists who responded expect 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Persisting with this first option is therefore untenable.</p>
<p>The second option is more intensive social science research and climate change advocacy. As Harvard historian Naomi Oreskes recently <a href="https://www-scientificamerican-com.ezproxy.massey.ac.nz/article/ipcc-youve-made-your-point-humans-are-a-primary-cause-of-climate-change/">observed</a>, the work of the IPCC’s Working Group I (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">WGI</a>, on the physical science basis of climate change) is complete and should be closed down. Attention needs to focus on translating this understanding into action, which is the realm of WGII (on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability) and WGIII (on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions). </p>
<p>In parallel, growing numbers of scientists are getting involved in diverse forms of advocacy, including <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03430-5">non-violent civil disobedience</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1459244312068337670"}"></div></p>
<p>However, albeit more promising than option one, there is little evidence of impact thus far and it is doubtful this pathway will lead to the urgent transformative actions required. This option is also not tenable.</p>
<h2>Halt on IPCC work until governments do their part</h2>
<p>The third option is much more radical, but unpalatable. We call for a moratorium on climate change research that does little more than document global warming and maladaptation. </p>
<p>Attention needs to focus on exposing and re-negotiating the broken science-society contract. Given the rupture to the contract outlined here, we call for a halt on all further IPCC assessments until governments are willing to fulfil their responsibilities in good faith and mobilise action to secure a safe level of global warming. This option is the only way to overcome the tragedy of climate change science. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-to-find-courage-and-defiant-hope-when-our-fragile-dewdrop-world-seems-beyond-saving-171299">Where to find courage and defiant hope when our fragile, dewdrop world seems beyond saving</a>
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<hr>
<p>Readers might agree with our framing of this tragedy but disagree with our assessment of options. Some may want greater detail on what a moratorium could encompass or worry it may damage the credibility and objectivity of the scientific community. </p>
<p>However, we question whether it is our “duty” to use public funds to continue to refine the state of climate change knowledge (which is unlikely to lead to the actions required), or whether a more radical approach will serve society better. </p>
<p>We have reached a critical juncture for humanity and the planet. Given the unfolding tragedy, a moratorium on climate change research is the only responsible option for revealing and then restoring the broken science-society contract. The other two options are seductive but offer false hope. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>We would like to acknowledge the work by Andrés Alegría in preparing the graphic.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Glavovic acknowledges the support of the New Zealand Earthquake Commission in enabling his contribution to this research, and the support by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment through the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain White acknowledges the support by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment through the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Smith acknowledges support by the Australian Research Council's Discovery Projects Funding Scheme (Project FT180100652). The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of Massey University, the University of the Sunshine Coast, the University of Waikato, the governments of New Zealand or Australia, the Earthquake Commission, or the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>What should climate scientists do in the face of ever rising emissions? They could continue providing more evidence, join climate activists – or stop work in protest against government inaction.Bruce Glavovic, Professor, Massey UniversityIain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoTim Smith, Professor and ARC Future Fellow, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655982021-08-09T11:09:42Z2021-08-09T11:09:42ZIPCC report: global emissions must peak by 2025 to keep warming at 1.5°C – we need deeds not words<p>Earth could exceed 1.5°C of global warming – the “safe” limit for temperature rise outlined in the Paris Agreement – as soon as <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">the early 2030s</a>, according to a landmark report by the world’s most senior climate scientists. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where the global community manages to significantly rein in greenhouse gas emissions, there is still only a 50:50 chance that global temperature rise will stop there.</p>
<p>The report’s conclusion that staying below 2°C this century will only happen if emissions reach net zero by 2050 is well publicised. But there is one, rather more urgent addendum to that: global emissions must peak some time in the middle of this decade. In other words, within the next few years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing different ways emissions could peak at about 2025 and fall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415229/original/file-20210809-23-1iu8mjr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=766&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IPCC’s modelling shows global emissions must peak by the middle of the decade for warming of just 1.5°C to be possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SPM3a.png">IPCC Report Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Let that sink in. It is a message which should concentrate the minds of every person on our planet. This is not “climate alarmism”. It is, as far as experts can ascertain, fact.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, often referred to as the IPCC, is the international body behind the report. Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, the IPCC provides governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies. It currently has 195 members and relies on thousands of scientists who volunteer their time to support its work. </p>
<p>After eight years of painstaking work, the panel’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport">Working Group I report</a> (WGI) has been published, providing a detailed assessment of the physical science underpinning past, present and future climate change. It is the definitive statement of the current levels of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the global climate, how they are changing, and how these figures relate to our targets for reducing them. </p>
<p>It will be followed in February 2022 by the WGII report, which will cover the impacts of climate change, adapting to them and how vulnerable different parts of the world are, and in March 2022 by the WGIII report outlining options for mitigating the climate crisis. Notably, it is a conservative assessment, and necessarily so because the IPCC goes to great lengths to avoid undermining the science by sounding false alarms. Which means, in IPCC terms, this is about as loud and urgent an alarm as we are likely to hear.</p>
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<h2>Extreme weather events</h2>
<p>We can’t say we weren’t warned. In 2019 the IPCC published its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5˚C</a>. This gave us the UN’s “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">12 years to save the planet</a>” media soundbite – and the more urgent message that we had <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48964736">18 months</a> to decide how to do it.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> commits us to limiting the average global temperature rise to 2˚C, which is based on accepting the impacts we think, with a high degree of confidence, that we can cope with. It also sets an aspirational target of 1.5˚C, which is considered the “safe” limit.</p>
<p>Neither limit means completely avoiding the impacts, but they minimise their disruption to our global society as we know it. Going beyond those limits increasingly risks sudden, highly disruptive and, over human timeframes, irreversible impacts.</p>
<p>However, recent extreme weather events such as the shocking <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/europe-s-deadly-floods-leave-scientists-stunned">flash floods in Germany and Belgium</a>, the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57654133">Canadian heatwave</a>, the <a href="https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/at-least-6-killed-due-to-floods-landslides-in-turkeys-black-sea-region-166334">deluge that hit the Black Sea region</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/thousands-flee-greek-island-evia-wildfires-raze-forest-and-homes">recent wildfires</a> on the Greek island of Evia have led some scientists to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/16/climate-scientists-shocked-by-scale-of-floods-in-germany">conclude</a> that what we are seeing now is “off the scale” in terms of what climate models have been <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9a647a51-ede8-480e-ba78-cbf14ad878b7">predicting</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-summer-2021-has-changed-our-understanding-of-extreme-weather-165268">How summer 2021 has changed our understanding of extreme weather</a>
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<p>But the world has consistently failed to agree and enact concrete actions in response. This lack of action really matters because, as the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport">IPCC report notes</a>, any future temperature target is closely tied to the emissions up to that point. It is much easier to stop putting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it is to remove it, and the more we emit the more we degrade the ecosystems that naturally soak it up.</p>
<p>This urgency is leading climate scientists themselves to call for others in their field to <a href="https://braveneweurope.com/bill-mcguire-an-open-letter-to-all-climate-scientists">speak out</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A home made protest placard showing the world inside an egg timer with the words 'time is running out'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414922/original/file-20210805-23-23wzp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Young people are desperate for governments to take decisive action on the climate crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stockholm-sweden-february-15-2019-greta-1314070172">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Deeds not words</h2>
<p>With all eyes now turning to the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP 26 Glasgow climate summit</a>, the Scottish “think and do” tank <a href="https://commonweal.scot/">Common Weal</a> has compiled a list of <a href="https://commonweal.scot/policies/21-for-21/">21 for 21: the climate change actions Scotland needs now</a>. <a href="https://commonweal.scot/">Common Weal</a> include a range of experts, many of whom, like the IPCC’s scientists, contribute their time for free.</p>
<p>These actions largely detail the institutional changes needed in the energy sector. According to the IPCC, about 85% of CO₂ emissions come from burning fossil fuels. Naturally some are focused on Scotland, although these could be adopted elsewhere. </p>
<p>Drawing from more than six years of energy and climate change policy research by <a href="https://commonweal.scot/">Common Weal</a>, the <a href="http://www.energypovertyresearch.org">Energy Poverty Research initiative</a>, and the <a href="https://www.gcu.ac.uk/assetmanagement/">Built Environment Asset Management Centre</a> at <a href="https://www.gcu.ac.uk/">Glasgow Caledonian University</a>, supported by members of other expert networks, and include:</p>
<p>• Introducing a law requiring the capture and recycling of waste heat</p>
<p>• Ending the use of coal and nuclear power</p>
<p>• Banning new oil and gas exploration, and divesting from fossil fuels</p>
<p>• Making grid-connection charges fair for all</p>
<p>• A legal right to work from home</p>
<p>• A legal right to a warm and energy-efficient home</p>
<p>• <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/the-20-minute-neighbourhood">20-minute neighbourhoods</a>, which provide all of people’s need within a 20-minute walk, with links to sustainable transport and good cycling infrastructure. </p>
<p>Some people might worry about actions which ban or restrict the use of fossil fuels, but such is the urgency of the situation that, just like lockdowns during a pandemic, failing to taking action now will necessitate even more restrictive steps further down the line.</p>
<p>We need to remember that these actions will be offset by a better life for all of us – less poverty, better health, more jobs, stronger communities and better natural environments for us all to live in safely and enjoy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Baker is an associate of 100% Renewable UK Ltd; a member of the Green Party of England and Wales; and a reviewer for Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). </span></em></p>We need specific action now to make net zero emissions by 2050 possible.Keith Baker, Researcher in Fuel Poverty and Energy Policy, Built Environment Asset Management (BEAM) Centre, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655272021-08-09T08:03:05Z2021-08-09T08:03:05ZRising seas and melting glaciers: these changes are now irreversible, but we have to act to slow them down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415124/original/file-20210808-13508-jzybe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C73%2C5387%2C3359&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/slowmotiongli</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After three years of writing and two weeks of virtual negotiations to approve the final wording, the Sixth Assessment Report (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">AR6</a>) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) confirms that changes are happening in Earth’s climate across every continent and every ocean. </p>
<p>My contribution was as one of 15 lead authors to a chapter about the oceans, the world’s icescapes and sea level change — and this is where we are now observing changes that have become irreversible over centuries, and even millennia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">This is the most sobering report card yet on climate change and Earth's future. Here’s what you need to know</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Overall, the world is now 1.09°C warmer than it was during the period between 1850 and 1900. The assessment shows the ocean surface has warmed slightly less, by about 0.9°C as a global average, than the land surface since 1850, but about two-thirds of the ocean warming has taken place during the last 50 years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Underwater canyon in the Pacific ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415143/original/file-20210809-15-ihmr4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world’s oceans are warming and acidifying.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Damsea</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We concluded that it is <em>virtually certain</em> the heat content of the ocean will continue to increase for the rest of the current century, and will <em>likely</em> continue until at least 2300, even under low-emissions scenarios.</p>
<p>We also concluded that carbon dioxide emissions are the main driver of acidification in the open ocean and that this has been increasing faster than any time in at least 26,000 years. </p>
<p>We can also say with <em>high confidence</em> that oxygen levels have dropped in many ocean regions since the mid-20th century and that marine heatwaves have doubled in frequency since 1980, also becoming longer and more intense.</p>
<p>Past greenhouse gas emissions, since 1750, mean we are now committed to future ocean warming throughout this century. The rate of change depends on our future emissions, but the process itself is now irreversible on centennial to
millennial time scales.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Glacier calving on the Antarctic Peninsula." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415142/original/file-20210809-21-es57js.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A warming ocean is melting ice from below in West Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Steve Allen</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ice loss in Antarctica</h2>
<p>All this heat is bad news for the area I work in: Antarctica. With a warming ocean, the Antarctic ice sheet is left vulnerable to melting because so much of it rests on bedrock below sea level. </p>
<p>As the ocean warms and the ice sheet melts, sea level goes up around the world. We have <em>very high confidence</em> that the ice lost from West Antarctica in recent decades has exceeded any gain in mass from snowfall. We are also confident this loss has largely been due to increased melting of ice below sea level, driven by warming ocean water. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CSWJ-p2hXyu/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>This melting has allowed the acceleration and thinning of grounded ice further inland — and this is what contributes to sea level rise. On the other side of the world, the Greenland ice sheet has also been losing mass over recent decades, but in Greenland this is principally due to warmer air, rather than warming ocean water.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-warming-exceeds-2-c-antarcticas-melting-ice-sheets-could-raise-seas-20-metres-in-coming-centuries-124484">If warming exceeds 2°C, Antarctica's melting ice sheets could raise seas 20 metres in coming centuries</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is <em>virtually certain</em> that the melting of the two great ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as the many thousands of glaciers around the world, will continue to raise sea levels globally for the rest of the current century. </p>
<p>By 2100, we project global mean sea level to be between 0.4m (for the lowest emission scenario, in which CO₂ emissions would have to drop to net zero by 2050) and 0.8m (for the highest emissions scenario) above the 1995–2014 average. How high the seas rise this century clearly depends on how much and how quickly we manage to cut greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<h2>The time to act is now</h2>
<p>There are processes at play which we still cannot fully capture in computer models, mostly because they take place over periods of time longer than we have direct (satellite-based) observations for. In Antarctica, some of these uncertain processes could greatly accelerate the loss of ice, and potentially add one metre to the projected sea level by 2100. </p>
<p>Whether or not this worst-case scenario plays out or not remains uncertain, but what is increasingly beyond doubt is that global mean sea level will continue to rise for centuries to come. The magnitude of this depends very much on the extent to which we are able, collectively, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions right now. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ocean ways against a coastal city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415145/original/file-20210809-20-178rsu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Globally, the seas will continue to rise for centuries to come.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/JivkoM</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The scientific updates in our AR6 chapter are in line with those from previous assessments. That’s encouraging, because every assessment report brings in new authors with different expertise. The fact the scientific conclusions remain consistent reflects the overwhelming agreement within the global scientific community. </p>
<p>For our chapter, we have assessed 1500 research papers, but across the entire AR6, over 14,000 publications were considered, with an emphasis on recent research that hasn’t been assessed in previous IPCC reports. </p>
<p>The report has been scrutinised carefully at every stage of its evolution, attracting nearly 80,000 individual review comments from experts all over the world. Every single comment had to be addressed by the author team, with written responses provided and any changes to the text carefully noted and tracked. </p>
<p>What changes with each assessment is the clarity of the trends we are observing, and the increasing urgency with which we must act. While some aspects of AR6 are new, the underlying message remains the same. The longer we wait, the more devastating the consequences. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ipcc-report-2021-108383">Click here</a> to read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the IPCC report</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Golledge received funding from the Ministry for the Environment to support his contribution to the IPCC process. </span></em></p>The latest IPCC report makes it clear we can no longer stop the seas from rising, but we can still control how much and how fast sea levels change.Nick Golledge, Professor of Glaciology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1653962021-08-09T08:00:51Z2021-08-09T08:00:51ZClimate change has already hit Australia. Unless we act now, a hotter, drier and more dangerous future awaits, IPCC warns<p>Australia is experiencing widespread, rapid climate change not seen for thousands of years and may warm by 4°C or more this century, according to a highly anticipated <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</p>
<p>The assessment, released on Monday, also warns of unprecedented increases in climate extremes such as bushfires, floods and drought. But it says deep, rapid emissions cuts could spare Australia, and the world, from the most severe warming and associated harms.</p>
<p>The report is the sixth produced by the IPCC since it was founded in 1988 and provides more regional information than any previous version. This gives us a clearer picture of how climate change will play out in Australia specifically. </p>
<p>It confirms the effects of human-caused climate change have well and truly arrived in Australia. This includes in the region of the East Australia Current, where the ocean is warming at a rate more than four times the global average.</p>
<p>We are climate scientists with expertise across historical climate change, climate projections, climate impacts and the carbon budget. We have been part of the international effort to produce the IPCC report over the past three years.</p>
<p>The report finds even under a moderate emissions scenario, the global effects of climate change will worsen significantly over the coming years and decades. Every fraction of a degree of global warming increases the likelihood and severity of many extremes. That means every effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions matters.</p>
<h2>Australia is, without question, warming</h2>
<p>Australia has warmed by about 1.4°C since 1910. The IPCC assessment concludes the extent of warming in both Australia and globally are impossible to explain without accounting for the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities. </p>
<p>The report introduces the concept of Climate Impact-Drivers (CIDs): 30 climate averages, extremes and events that create climate impacts. These include heat, cold, drought and flood. </p>
<p>The report confirms global warming is driving a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extremely hot temperatures in Australia, as well as a decrease in almost all cold extremes. The IPCC noted with high confidence that recent extreme heat events in Australia were made more likely or more severe due to human influence. </p>
<p>These events include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the Australian summer of 2012–13, also known as the Angry Summer, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/angry-summer-shaped-by-a-shifting-climate-12580">more than 70%</a> of Australia experienced extreme temperatures</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-14/g20-leaders-swelter-as-brisbane-residents-head-to-the-beach/5891494">Brisbane heatwave</a> in 2014</p></li>
<li><p>extreme heat preceding the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-28/queensland-bushfire-emergency-as-thousands-evacuated/10563834">2018 Queensland fires</a></p></li>
<li><p>the heat leading into the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The IPCC report notes very high confidence in further warming and heat extremes through the 21st century – the extent of which depends on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>If global average warming is limited to 1.5°C this century, Australia would warm to between 1.4°C to 1.8°C. If global average warming reaches 4°C this century, Australia would warm to between 3.9°C and 4.8°C . </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415156/original/file-20210809-17-1lz4fv6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IPCC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC says as the planet warms, future heatwaves in Australia – and globally – will be hotter and last longer. Conversely, cold extremes will be both less intense and frequent.</p>
<p>Hotter temperatures, combined with reduced rainfall, will make parts of Australia more arid. A drying climate can lead to reduced river flows, drier soils, mass tree deaths, crop damage, bushfires and drought.</p>
<p>The southwest of Western Australia remains a globally notable hotspot for <a href="https://theconversation.com/saving-water-in-a-drying-climate-lessons-from-south-west-australia-28517">drying</a> attributable to human influence. The IPCC says this drying is projected to continue as emissions rise and the climate warms. In southern and eastern Australia, drying in winter and spring is also likely to continue. This phenomenon is depicted in the graphic below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415134/original/file-20210809-25-zca704.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IPCC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate extremes on the rise</h2>
<p>Heat and drying are not the only climate extremes set to hit Australia in the coming decades. The report also notes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>observed and projected increases in Australia’s dangerous fire weather</p></li>
<li><p>a projected increase in heavy and extreme rainfall in most places in Australia, particularly in the north</p></li>
<li><p>a projected increase in river flood risk almost everywhere in Australia.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Under a warmer climate, extreme rainfall in a single hour or day can become more intense or more frequent, even in areas where the average rainfall declines.</p>
<p>For the first time, the IPCC report provides regional projections of coastal hazards due to sea level rise, changing coastal storms and coastal erosion – changes highly relevant to beach-loving Australia. </p>
<p>This century, for example, sandy shorelines in places such as eastern Australia are projected to retreat by more than 100 metres, under moderate or high emissions pathways. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="homes on sand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414743/original/file-20210805-25-f9t4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some sandy shorelines may retreat by more than 100 metres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Gourley/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hotter, more acidic oceans</h2>
<p>The IPCC report says globally, climate change means oceans are becoming more acidic and losing oxygen. Ocean currents are becoming more variable and salinity patterns – the parts of the ocean that are saltiest and less salty – are changing. </p>
<p>It also means sea levels are rising and the oceans are becoming warmer. This is leading to an increase in marine heatwaves such as those which have contributed to mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in recent decades.</p>
<p>Notably, the region of the East Australia Current which runs south along the continent’s east coast is warming at a rate more than four times the global average. </p>
<p>The phenomenon is playing out in all regions with so-called “western boundary currents” – fast, narrow ocean currents found in all major ocean gyres. This pronounced warming is affecting marine ecosystems and aquaculture and is projected to continue.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-spent-two-weeks-surveying-the-great-barrier-reef-what-we-saw-was-an-utter-tragedy-135197">We just spent two weeks surveying the Great Barrier Reef. What we saw was an utter tragedy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="bleached coral with diver" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414740/original/file-20210805-17-12jvgnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The region of the East Australia Current, which includes the Great Barrier Reef, is warming at a rate more than four times the global average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">XL Catlin Seaview Survey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>Like all regions of the world, Australia is already feeling the effects of a changing climate. </p>
<p>The IPCC confirms there is no going back from some changes in the climate system. However, the consequences can be slowed, and some effects stopped, through strong, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>And now is the time to start adapting to climate change at a large scale, through serious planning and on-ground action. </p>
<p>To find out more about how climate change will affect Australia, the latest IPCC report includes an <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch">Interactive Atlas</a>. Use it to explore past trends and future projections for different emissions scenarios, and for the world at different levels of global warming.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CSWJ-p2hXyu/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">This is the most sobering report card yet on climate change and Earth's future. Here’s what you need to know</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ipcc-report-2021-108383">Click here</a> to read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the IPCC report</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Grose receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Joelle Gergis has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past. She currently receives funding from the Australian National University. The Australian Government's Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources provided travel funding to support her participation in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roshanka Ranasinghe is employed at IHE Delft Institute for Water Education/Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands</span></em></p>Australia may warm by 4°C or more this century, the IPCC has found. As these IPCC authors explain, there is no going back from some changes in the climate system.Michael Grose, Climate projections scientist, CSIROJoelle Gergis, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Australian National UniversityPep Canadell, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRORoshanka Ranasinghe, Professor of Climate Change impacts and Coastal RiskLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1626002021-06-29T04:00:17Z2021-06-29T04:00:17ZClimate explained: how the IPCC reaches scientific consensus on climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408549/original/file-20210627-22-cp7t7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C101%2C3934%2C2556&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>When we say there’s a scientific consensus that human-produced greenhouse gases are causing climate change, what does that mean? What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and what do they do?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>) provides the world’s most authoritative scientific assessments on climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and risks, and options for cutting emissions and adapting to impacts we can no longer avoid. </p>
<p>The IPCC has already released five assessment reports and is currently completing its Sixth Assessment (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">AR6</a>), with the release of the first part of the report, on the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">physical science of climate change</a>, expected on August 9. </p>
<p>Each assessment cycle brings together scientists from around the world and many disciplines. The current cycle involves 721 scientists from 90 countries, in three working groups covering the physical science basis (WGI), impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (WGII) and mitigation of climate change (WGIII).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group photo showing the diversity of people contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408595/original/file-20210628-21-o0e2rf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People contributing to IPCC reports come from 90 countries and different backgrounds. This image shows the Working Group II team.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In each assessment round, the IPCC identifies where the scientific community agrees, where there are differences of opinion and where further research is needed. </p>
<p>IPCC reports are timed to inform international policy developments such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="https://unfccc.int/">UNFCCC</a>) (First Assessment, 1990), the Kyoto Protocol (Second Assessment, 1995) and the Paris Agreement (Fifth Assessment, 2013-2014). The first AR6 report (WGI) will be released in August this year, and its approval meeting is set to take place virtually, for the first time in the IPCC’s 30-year history.</p>
<p>This will be followed by WGII and WGIII reports in February and March 2022, and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">Synthesis Report</a> in September 2022 — in time for the first UNFCCC <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/global-stocktake">Global Stocktake</a> when countries will review progress towards the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep warming below 2°C.</p>
<p>During the AR6 cycle, the IPCC also published three special reports:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">global warming of 1.5°C</a> (2018)</p></li>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/">oceans and the cryosphere in a changing climate</a> (2019)</p></li>
<li><p>on <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">climate change and land</a> (2019). </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph of curent warming across the globe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408550/original/file-20210627-14-10lbyng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IPCC’s special report on global warming at 1.5 showed present-day warming across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/">IPCC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How the IPCC reaches consensus</h2>
<p>IPCC authors come from academia, industry, government and non-governmental organisations. All authors go through a rigorous selection process — they must be leading experts in their fields, with a strong publishing record and international reputation. </p>
<p>Author teams usually meet in person four times throughout the writing cycle. This is essential to enable (sometimes heated) discussion and exchange across cultures to build a truly global perspective. During the AR6 assessment cycle, lead author meetings (LAMs) for Working Group 1 were not disrupted by COVID-19, but the final WGII and WGIII meetings were held remotely, bringing challenges of different time zones, patchy internet access and more difficult communication.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/top-climate-scientist-i-put-myself-through-hell-as-an-ipcc-convening-lead-author-but-it-was-worth-it-121855">Top climate scientist: I put myself through hell as an IPCC convening lead author, but it was worth it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The IPCC’s reports go through an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/preparingreports/">extensive peer review process</a>. Each chapter undergoes two rounds of scientific review and revision, first by expert reviewers and then by government representatives and experts. </p>
<p>This review process is among the most exhaustive for any scientific document — AR6 WGI alone generated 74,849 review comments from hundreds of reviewers, representing a range of disciplines and scientific perspectives. For comparison, a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal is reviewed by only two or three experts. </p>
<h2>The role of governments</h2>
<p>The term intergovernmental reflects the fact that IPCC reports are created on behalf of the 193 governments in the United Nations. The processes around the review and the agreement of the wording of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) make it difficult for governments to dismiss a report they have helped shape and approved during political negotiations.</p>
<p>Importantly, the involvement of governments happens at the review stage, so they are not able to dictate what goes into the reports. But they participate in the line-by-line review and revision of the SPM at a plenary session where every piece of text must be agreed on, word for word. </p>
<p>Acceptance in this context means that governments agree the documents are a comprehensive and balanced scientific review of the subject matter, not whether they like the content.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">IPCC 1.5℃ report: here's what the climate science says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The role of government delegates in the plenary is to ensure their respective governments are satisfied with the assessment, and that the assessment is policy relevant without being policy prescriptive. Government representatives can try to influence the SPM wording to support their negotiating positions, but the other government representatives and experts in the session ensure the language adheres to the evidence. </p>
<p>Climate deniers claim IPCC reports are politically motivated and one-sided. But given the many stages at which experts from across the political and scientific spectrum are involved, this is difficult to defend. Authors are required to record all scientifically or technically valid perspectives, even if they cannot be reconciled with a consensus view, to represent each aspect of the scientific debate.</p>
<p>The role of the IPCC is pivotal in bringing the international science community together to assess the science, weighing up whether it is good science and should be considered as part of the body of evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Harris is a Lead Author on the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, contributing to WGII. She received funding from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources to support travel to IPCC Lead Author Meetings</span></em></p>The IPCC’s review process is among the most exhaustive for any scientific process. Each report generates thousands of comments from hundreds of reviewers across a range of scientific perspectives.Rebecca Harris, Senior Lecturer in Climatology, Director, Climate Futures Program, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1529752021-01-20T19:08:08Z2021-01-20T19:08:08ZEngineers have built machines to scrub CO₂ from the air. But will it halt climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379667/original/file-20210120-19-h9i649.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1119%2C750&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climeworks</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Wednesday this week, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html">measured at</a> at 415 parts per million (ppm). The level is the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18480821/">highest in human history</a>, and is growing each year. </p>
<p>Amid all the focus on emissions reduction, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">says</a> it will not be enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming. The world must actively remove historical CO₂ already in the atmosphere - a process often described as “negative emissions”.</p>
<p>CO₂ removal can be done in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-4/">two ways</a>. The first is by enhancing carbon storage in natural ecosystems, such as planting more forests or storing more carbon in soil. The second is by using direct air capture (DAC) technology that strips CO₂ from the ambient air, then either stores it underground or turns it into products.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20437-0.epdf?sharing_token=k2P-bbEHmkbGMYtfIlxjLNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OQhmt0oVlcJ2hb6N7kuxx6jYjT2A_tNJ5EUFunfResYWcd_Pn2lJqFD5AE16EfL_XZmbIT4FGlp3BlHDyHOK4KvOY6jtMDGok1MFIgw5x7OQXk3YNeDZNP8nGNcB95n4M%3D">US research</a> published last week suggested global warming could be slowed with an emergency deployment of a fleet of “CO₂ scrubbers” using DAC technology. However a wartime level of funding from government and business would be needed. So is direct air capture worth the time and money?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Smoke stack with CO2 written in smoke" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379668/original/file-20210120-15-l5t5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Direct air capture of CO2 will be needed to address climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s DAC all about?</h2>
<p>Direct air capture refers to any mechanical system capturing CO₂ from the atmosphere. Plants operating today <a href="https://carbonremoval.economist.com/direct-air-capture/">use a</a> liquid solvent or solid sorbent to separate CO₂ from other gases.</p>
<p>Swiss company <a href="https://www.climeworks.com/">Climeworks</a> operates 15 direct air capture machines across Europe, comprising the world’s first commercial DAC system. The operation is powered by renewable geothermal energy or energy produced by burning waste.</p>
<p>The machines use a fan to draw air into a “collector”, inside which a selective filter captures CO₂. Once the filter is full, the collector is closed and the CO₂ is sequestered underground.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-carbon-neutral-carbon-negative-confused-by-all-the-carbon-jargon-then-read-this-151382">Net-zero, carbon-neutral, carbon-negative ... confused by all the carbon jargon? Then read this</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Canadian company <a href="https://carbonengineering.com/">Carbon Engineering</a> uses giant fans to pull air into a tower-like structure. The air passes over a potassium hydroxide solution which chemically binds to the CO₂ molecules, and removes them from the air. The CO₂ is then concentrated, purified and compressed. </p>
<p>Captured CO₂ can be injected into the ground to <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas-research/enhanced-oil-recovery">extract oil</a>, in some cases helping to <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/can-co2-eor-really-provide-carbon-negative-oil">counteract</a> the emissions produced by burning the oil.</p>
<p>The proponents of the <a href="https://www.climeworks.com/">Climeworks</a> and <a href="https://carbonengineering.com/">Carbon Engineering</a> technology say their projects are set for large-scale investment and deployment in coming years. Globally, the potential market value of DAC technology could reach US$100bn by 2030, on <a href="https://carbonremoval.economist.com/direct-air-capture/">some estimates</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artist impression of a DAC facility to be built in Houston, Texas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379669/original/file-20210120-15-1l3yzmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artist impression of a DAC facility to be built in the US state of Texas. If built, it would be the largest of its kind in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Carbon Engineering</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Big challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Direct air capture faces many hurdles and challenges before it can make a real dent in climate change.</p>
<p>DAC technology is currently expensive, relative to many alternative ways of capturing CO₂, but is expected to become cheaper as the technology scales up. The economic feasibility will be helped by the recent emergence of new <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/publications-reports-research/the-lcfs-and-ccs-protocol-an-overview-for-policymakers-and-project-developers/">carbon markets</a> where negative emissions can be traded.</p>
<p>DAC machines process an enormous volume of air, and as such are very <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/direct-co2-capture-machines-could-use-quarter-global-energy-in-2100">energy-intensive</a>. In fact, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5">research</a> has suggested direct air capture machines could use a quarter of global energy in 2100. However <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/adsu.202000101">new DAC methods</a> being developed could cut the technology’s energy use. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941">The Morrison government wants to suck CO₂ out of the atmosphere. Here are 7 ways to do it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While the challenges to direct air capture are great, the technology uses less land and water than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3231?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplink">other negative emissions technologies</a> such as planting forests or storing CO₂ in soils or oceans. </p>
<p>DAC technology is also increasingly gaining the backing of big business. Microsoft, for example, <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbon-negative-by-2030/">last year included</a> the technology in its carbon negative plan.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Emissions rising from a coal plant." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352420/original/file-20200812-21-1k6x0vf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Direct air capture is touted as a way to offset emissions from industry and elsewhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Opportunities for Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is uniquely positioned to be a world leader in direct air capture. It boasts large areas of land not suitable for growing crops. It has ample sunlight, meaning there is great potential to host DAC facilities powered by solar energy. Australia also has some of the world’s best sites in which to “sequester” or store carbon in underground reservoirs.</p>
<p>Direct air capture is a relatively new concept in Australia. Australian company <a href="https://www.southerngreengas.com.au/">Southern Green Gas</a>, as well as the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Commercialisation/Marketplace/CO2Gen">CSIRO</a>, are developing solar-powered DAC technologies. The SGG project, with which I am involved, involves modular units potentially deployed in large numbers, including close to sites where captured CO₂ can be used in oil recovery or permanently stored.</p>
<p>If DAC technology can overcome its hurdles, the benefits will extend beyond tackling climate change. It would create a new manufacturing sector and potentially re-employ workers displaced by the decline of fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Red sand and tussocks of grass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365441/original/file-20201026-15-1tnu3qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia has ample sunlight and plenty of non-arable land where DAC facilities could be built.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The urgency of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere seems like an enormous challenge. But not acting will bring far greater challenges: more climate and weather extremes, irreversible damage to biodiversity and ecosystems, species extinction and threats to health, food, water and economic growth. </p>
<p>DAC technology undoubtedly faces stiff headwinds. But with the right policy incentives and market drivers, it may be one of a suite of measures that start reversing climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450">Earth may temporarily pass dangerous 1.5℃ warming limit by 2024, major new report says</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deanna D'Alessandro receives research funding from Southern Green Gas Ltd. as part of a government-funded ARENA grant on Renewable Methane Generation with pipeline utility APA group and the University of Newcastle. </span></em></p>Machines using giant fans and filters can literally suck carbon dioxide out of the air. Sounds great – but the technology faces many challenges.Deanna D'Alessandro, Professor & ARC Future Fellow, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.