tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/international-339/articlesInternational – The Conversation2024-01-09T13:44:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2179552024-01-09T13:44:22Z2024-01-09T13:44:22ZTaiwanese election may determine whether Beijing opts to force the issue of reunification<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568309/original/file-20240108-19-kmxh2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Posters of presidential candidate William Lai and his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/posters-of-presidential-candidate-lai-ching-te-and-his-news-photo/1905136679?adppopup=true">Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the votes are being tallied in <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/6/24026992/taiwan-china-president-war-xi-jinping-asia-semiconductors-chips">Taiwan’s presidential election</a>, it won’t be only the <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/taiwan/">23.6 million inhabitants of the island</a> eagerly awaiting a result – in Beijing and Washington, too, there will be some anxious faces.</p>
<p>The vote of Jan. 13, 2024, is seen as a litmus test for the future of cross-strait relations, coming at a time when the status quo over Taiwan – a territory <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-taiwan-a-country-or-not-213638">Beijing claims as an integral part of “one China</a>” – is being challenged. If Taiwan’s incumbent, independence-oriented party stays in power, Chinese leader Xi Jinping might feel he has no choice but to force the issue of reunification.</p>
<p>Conversely, if the opposition – which agrees with Beijing that Taiwan and the mainland are part of “one China” but not about who governs it – wins, Beijing might feel it has more space to be patient on the issue.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the vote, Beijing has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-taiwan-is-hyping-up-military-threat-its-own-gain-2023-12-28/">ramped up military exercises</a> in and around the Taiwan Strait in an apparent warning to Taiwanese voters. On Jan. 6, in one of the most recent incidents, China <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taiwan-chinese-balloons-harassment-threat-air-safety-106154165">sent a series of balloons</a> over the island, which the Taiwan government cited as a threat to air travel and an attempt at intimidation.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in his <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202312/t20231231_11215608.html">annual New Year’s address</a>, Xi stated that “China will surely be reunified,” raising fears internationally that he intends to pursue the issue militarily if necessary. </p>
<p>For Washington, too, the outcome of the vote <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/2/us-watching-taiwan-elections-closely-as-beijing-reiterates-claim-to-island">will have implications</a>. The United States has cultivated strong ties with the current leadership of Taiwan. But recent tensions in the strait have raised the risk of war. U.S. actions deemed provocative by Beijing, such as the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-puts-the-white-house-in-delicate-straits-of-diplomacy-with-china-188116">visit of then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan</a>, have resulted in China upping its military threats in the strait. And this has raised speculation that China’s patience is growing thin and its timeline for reunification is growing shorter. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/but-can-the-united-states-defend-taiwan/">questions about the U.S. capacity</a> to respond to any Chinese aggression over Taiwan have risen; the specter of war in a third region of the world – after Ukraine and Israel – <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/top-us-general-warns-everyone-should-worried-about-war-china-1849085">worries national security leadership</a> in Washington.</p>
<h2>Independence on the ballot?</h2>
<p>The presidential election in Taiwan has come down to a three-way race. The front-runner is <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/taiwans-2024-presidential-election-analyzing-william-lais-foreign-policy-positions">current Vice President William Lai</a>, who is the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP views Taiwan as a sovereign country and does not seek reunification with China.</p>
<p>Lai’s challengers are New Taipei City mayor Hou Yu-ih, of the Kuomintang (KMT), and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei running for the center-left Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The KMT embraces the idea of future reunification with China under a democratic government. The TPP criticizes both DPP and KMT platforms on cross-strait relations as too extreme and seeks a middle ground that maintains the status quo: A Taiwan that is de facto sovereign, but with strong economic and cultural ties with China. </p>
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<img alt="A woman makes a heart shape with her arms, behind her are people carrying flags and placards." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568313/original/file-20240108-17-qkzx3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Supporters of Kuomintang at a campaign rally in Taichung, Taiwan, on Jan. 8, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-listen-kuomintang-presidential-candidate-hou-yu-news-photo/1910638618?adppopup=true">Man Hei Leung/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Taiwan law mandates that no polls are published in the 10 days before the election. As of Jan. 3, when the final polls were published, <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/2024-taiwan-election">averages had Lai leading</a> with 36%, with Hou at 31% and Ko at 24%.</p>
<p>Lai has consistently led in the polls, prompting the KMT and TPP to earlier <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwans-opposition-parties-decide-joint-presidential-ticket-2023-11-15/">consider running on a joint ticket</a>. But the two parties <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67471139">failed to agree on terms</a>, and the coalition attempt imploded. </p>
<p>This may prove crucial, as joining forces may have represented the best chance of a KMT candidate being elected – an outcome that may have cooled tensions with Beijing.</p>
<h2>Taiwanese democracy</h2>
<p>The island of Taiwan has been governed as the “Republic of China” since 1949, when the KMT <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/chinese-rev">lost a civil war to the Chinese Communist Party</a>. The CCP set up the People’s Republic of China on the mainland, and the KMT retreated to Taiwan.</p>
<p>For decades, both the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China diverged on every possible policy except one: Both governments agreed that there was <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-the-one-china-policy/">only one China</a>, and that Taiwan was a part of China. They each sought to unite Taiwan and the mainland – but under their own rule.</p>
<p>Although that remains the goal in Beijing today, for Taiwan the outlook has started to change. </p>
<p>The change began with <a href="https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/-democratic-transition-and-consolidation-in-taiwan_122745967872.pdf">Taiwanese democratization</a> – a process that began in the early 1990s after decades of autocratic rule. After gradually rolling out direct elections for the legislature, governors and mayors, the island held its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/24/world/taiwan-s-leader-wins-its-election-and-a-mandate.html">first democratic election for president in 1996</a>. Despite Beijing holding military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to interfere with the vote, the KMT-affiliated incumbent won against a DPP candidate with strong ties to the Taiwan independence movement.</p>
<p>Four years later, the DPP’s candidate won and started the first of two consecutive terms. In 2008, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.3423">KMT candidate returned to power</a>. But since 2016, Taiwan has been led by Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP. </p>
<h2>Uneasy consensus</h2>
<p>Cross-strait tensions tend to rise when the DPP is in office and calm somewhat when the KMT is in power. This isn’t because the KMT agrees with Beijing over the status of Taiwan – the party has always been clear that unification could happen only under its own government and never under the leadership of the Communist Party in Beijing. But the KMT affirms the idea that eventual unification with China is its goal for Taiwan. </p>
<p>In 1992, representatives of the KMT and the CCP met in Hong Kong and reached the “<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/the-1992-consensus-why-it-worked-and-why-it-fell-apart/">1992 Consensus</a>.” Despite the name, the two sides do not fully agree on what it meant. The KMT affirmed the idea of one China but noted disagreement on what the government of that China should be; the People’s Republic of China interpreted it as affirming one China under CCP rule. </p>
<p>Still, the 1992 Consensus became the basis of a series of policies strengthening cross-strait ties, and it made KMT-led governments easier for the PRC to tolerate.</p>
<h2>Pro-independence sentiment</h2>
<p>Though speculation about the geopolitical fallout and China’s reaction to the election has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-election-poses-early-2024-test-us-aim-steady-china-ties-2024-01-05/">dominated coverage</a> <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-tells-taiwan-vote-right-side-history-election-could-determine-cross-strait-relations">of the vote</a> <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3247604/global-impact-taiwan-heads-polls-what-does-islands-presidential-election-mean-cross-strait-and-us">around the world</a>, for Taiwan voters, independence is one of several critical issues the island faces. The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-the-key-issues-in-taiwans-2024-presidential-election/">economy frequently rises even above cross-strait issues</a> in importance, with many voters expressing concern over the rapid rise of housing prices, stagnating salaries, slow economic growth and how the incumbent party handled the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>On the issue of independence itself, Taiwanese polls have shown a creep toward pro-independence sentiment. As of September 2023, <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/02/2003805648">nearly half of Taiwanese voters</a> said they preferred independence (48.9%) for the island, while 26.9% sought a continuation of the status quo. A shrinking minority – now just 11.8% – said they hoped for future reunification.</p>
<p>If the DPP remains in power, Beijing may feel the pressure to force the issue of reunification. Xi has called for the Chinese military to be capable of <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-AMONSON%20&%20EGLI_FEATURE%20IWD.PDF">a successful cross-strait invasion by 2027</a>, though a forceful reunification effort might include a combination of economic blockade and military pressure. </p>
<p>If that were to be the case, U.S. commitments to Taiwan – along with U.S. credibility among its Asian allies – could be on the line. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that he is <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-again-indicates-that-us-will-defend-taiwan-militarily-does-this-constitute-a-change-in-policy-190946">prepared to defend the island militarily</a> against an attack from mainland China.</p>
<p>Already in 2024, the U.S. is having to contend with two significant conflicts that are demanding its attention. How Taiwanese voters mark their ballot – and how policymakers in Beijing respond – may determine whether a third war is more or less likely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meredith Oyen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A candidate from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party looks set to win the presidency despite Beijing’s pressure and rhetoric.Meredith Oyen, Associate Professor of History and Asian Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2127282023-09-18T12:22:09Z2023-09-18T12:22:09ZGenocide fears in Darfur are attracting little attention − have nations abandoned their responsibility to protect civilians?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548147/original/file-20230913-29-frdmf4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4500%2C2930&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A military convoy on the way to Port Sudan on Aug. 30, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fighters-ride-in-a-vehicle-moving-in-a-military-convoy-news-photo/1633929430?adppopup=true"> Photo by AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mass atrocities are once again plaguing the people of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/29/sudan-darfur-genocide/">Darfur, Sudan</a>, with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sudan-war-military-rsf-darfur-6e13139742d52564e47847cb9bd4d2a5">talk of a genocide</a> taking place.</p>
<p>Twenty years after <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/genocide-prevention/countries/sudan/case-study/violence/enormous-loss-of-civilian-life">genocide</a> began in the region, recent conflict and targeted violence have forced <a href="https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/sudan/">over 5 million people</a> to flee their homes across Sudan in just five months. In Darfur, non-Arab unarmed civilians have been <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/16/africa/darfur-sudan-geneina-massacre-account-cmd-intl/index.html">hunted down</a> and massacred, according to eyewitnesses and survivors. Women and girls have been subjected to <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/08/un-experts-alarmed-reported-widespread-use-rape-and-sexual-violence-against#:%7E:text=Reportedly%2C%20hundreds%20of%20women%20have,been%20particularly%20vulnerable%20to%20violence.">systematic rape, sexual violence</a> <a href="https://sihanet.org/kidnapping-and-slavery-the-rsf-is-committing-more-dangerous-rights-violations-in-this-malign-war-against-civilians-in-sudan/">and trafficking</a>.</p>
<p>With genocide and crimes against humanity once again taking place and so little international attention, one wonders if the international community has completely turned its back on a decades-old commitment to protect civilians from mass atrocities, known as the “<a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/about-responsibility-to-protect.shtml">responsibility to protect</a>.”</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://humanrights.uconn.edu/person/mike-brand/">adjunct professor</a> of genocide studies and human rights at the <a href="https://humanrights.uconn.edu/">University of Connecticut</a>, and the question of how the international community should confront genocide is an issue my students and I grapple with every semester.</p>
<p>Before unpacking that question, let’s look at why the expectation of civilian protection even exists. </p>
<h2>An important question</h2>
<p>In 2000, then-United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan <a href="https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/413745?ln=en">asked the international community</a>, “If humanitarian intervention is, indeed, an unacceptable assault on sovereignty, how should we respond to a Rwanda, to a Srebrenica — to gross and systematic violations of human rights that offend every precept of our common humanity?”</p>
<p>It was an important question. For centuries, the <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803121924198">principle of sovereignty</a> reigned supreme in international relations. It was largely understood that what happens within a country’s borders is that government’s responsibility. Governing authorities were pretty much free to do what they pleased, without fear of meddling from other international actors. </p>
<p>In the post-World War II era, states began to willingly give up some of their sovereignty to join the newly created <a href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/history-of-the-un">United Nations</a> and engage in various agreements outlining common rules they would follow – collectively, these rules are now known as international law. However, even after witnessing the horrors of the Holocaust and pledging “<a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/stories/2018/09/genocide-never-again-has-become-time-and-again">never again</a>,” the world watched genocide unfold in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506">Rwanda in 1994</a> and <a href="https://www.irmct.org/specials/srebrenica/timeline/en/">Srebrenica the following year</a>. Annan’s question needed an answer if the international community were to effectively prevent or intervene to stop another genocide.</p>
<p>In 2001, the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty sought to answer Annan’s question by presenting a new concept known as the “<a href="https://www.walterdorn.net/pdf/Responsibility-to-Protect_ICISS-Report_Dec2001.pdf">responsibility to protect</a>.” The framework re-imagined state sovereignty and the responsibility of states to protect their people from mass atrocities like genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. In cases when a state was unwilling to live up to its responsibility to protect civilians or was itself the perpetrator of mass atrocities, then the responsibility shifted to the wider international community through the United Nations.</p>
<h2>A revolutionary idea</h2>
<p>The commission outlined three key responsibilities for implementing the responsibility to protect: the responsibility to prevent, react and rebuild. </p>
<p>The responsibility to prevent focuses on addressing the root causes of conflict and preventing mass atrocities before they break out. </p>
<p>The responsibility to react refers to the international community’s response to ongoing mass atrocities through diplomatic interventions, sanctions and sometimes military intervention. </p>
<p>Finally, the responsibility to rebuild includes assisting a country in its recovery from conflict and any damage caused by external interventions in an effort to stabilize a post-conflict country and prevent future atrocities.</p>
<p>Often, it is the responsibility to react, and more specifically military intervention, that people associate with the responsibility to protect. However, the “responsibility to protect” framework clearly states that military intervention is to be used only as a <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/evans-interview-r2p-after-libya/">last resort</a>. As the United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/prevention.shtml#:%7E:text=Therefore%2C%20prevention%20not%20only%20contributes,or%20dealing%20with%20their%20aftermath.">has said</a>, “Prevention is much less costly than intervening to halt these crimes, or dealing with their aftermath.” </p>
<p>The concept of the responsibility to protect was in many ways revolutionary. Member states adopted the principle at the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/newyork2005">2005 World Summit</a> just four years after the concept was introduced. World leaders pledged in a joint statement: “We are prepared to take collective action … should peaceful means be inadequate and national authorities are manifestly failing to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.”</p>
<p>While it was a major accomplishment to get world leaders to endorse the responsibility to protect, it was not binding international law. There were no requirements that states live up to its provisions, and there were no penalties if states failed to protect populations from mass atrocities.</p>
<h2>The first test</h2>
<p>The urgency for responsibility to protect was evident in the fact that while the principle was being discussed and adopted, <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/09/20040909-10.html">genocide was underway in Darfur</a>. Just 10 years after <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506">the genocide in Rwanda</a>, which was the impetus for the creation of the responsibility to protect, non-Arab civilian populations in western Sudan were being systematically targeted for destruction.</p>
<p>Some sanctions and strong words from the United Nations and several countries followed. But little direct action was taken for the first few years of the Darfur genocide. It took the United Nations four years to authorize and deploy a hybrid peacekeeping mission in the form of the <a href="https://unamid.unmissions.org/">United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur</a>. Even after this mission was finally deployed, violence continued. In all, between <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-07-24">200,000 and 400,000</a> Darfuris were killed, and millions were displaced. Many fled to <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/they-gave-us-two-options-leave-chad-or-be-killed">neighboring Chad</a>, where they remain today. The exact death tolls are disputed because of limited humanitarian presence and a lack of investigative capacity.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Sudanese mother with scarf on her head is holding her malnourished son in a hospital." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548197/original/file-20230914-27-bvbwf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Millions of Darfuris were displaced in the mid-2000s, many to Sudanese refugee camps in neighboring Chad.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ida-ibrahim-holds-her-malnourished-son-ahmad-saleh-13-news-photo/691913736?adppopup=true">Lynsey Addario/via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Several <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Responsibility-to-Protect-in-Darfur-From-Forgotten-Conflict-to-Global/Lanz/p/book/9781032570686">books</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26298897">academic articles</a> analyzed the response – <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4541909">or lack thereof</a> – to genocide in Darfur within the context of responsibility to protect. It has become the quintessential case study.</p>
<p>Yet most view the international community’s response to Darfur in the early 2000s as a <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Unwilling-and-Unable-The-Failed-Response-to-the-Atrocities-in-Darfur.pdf">responsibility-to-protect failure</a>, despite the peacekeeping mission, public attention and diplomatic engagement. Not only was there a failure to protect civilians, there was also a failure to hold perpetrators accountable for their crimes. Many of the <a href="https://medium.com/@atrocitiesprevention/sudan-genocide-warning-letter-ea8e78b671b1">same perpetrators</a> of the genocide in the early 2000s <a href="https://progressive.org/latest/genocide-is-once-again-plaguing-darfur-brand-230710/">are committing atrocities again now</a>, observers say, in a testament to the dangers of impunity. </p>
<h2>Even worse than before</h2>
<p>But there is an important distinction between today and the early 2000s – today there is little appetite among the international community to engage in a meaningful way that would protect civilians and bring an end to the slaughter. <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/tension-between-sudan-kenya-s-ruto-impedes-igad-mediation-effort-in-sudan/7195894.html">Kenyan President William Ruto</a> has called for a new peacekeeping mission to be deployed, but neither the United Nations nor the African Union has supported him. The UN’s former mission in Darfur ended in 2020.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates <a href="https://geneva.usmission.gov/2023/06/19/joint-statement-on-sudan-by-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates-united-kingdom-and-united-states/">publicly called for peace</a> while <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-u-s-ally-promised-to-send-aid-to-sudan-it-sent-weapons-instead-82d396f">privately sending arms</a> to the very militia committing mass atrocities.</p>
<p>The United States has <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases?title=sudan&publication-start-date=&publication-end-date=">sanctioned</a> elements of the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese armed forces and has <a href="https://www.state.gov/statement-on-atrocities-in-darfur-sudan/">repeatedly</a> called for <a href="https://www.state.gov/on-civilian-casualties-in-sudan/">accountability for perpetrators of atrocities</a>. The United States ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice, Beth Van Schaack, has stated that the violence in West Darfur “serves as an ominous reminder of the horrific events that led the United States to determine in 2004 that a genocide was underway in Darfur.” But she stopped short of saying genocide was happening again. Historically, United States genocide determinations have been political decisions that are often <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/22/the-g-word-paradox-genocide-islamic-state-john-kerry/#:%7E:text=When%20used%20correctly%2C%20the%20word,or%20%E2%80%9Ccrimes%E2%80%9D%20ever%20can.">delayed by State Department lawyers</a>. </p>
<p>The question of the viability of the “responsibility to protect” principle goes beyond the crisis in Darfur. Over the past two decades, the international community has failed to protect civilians in <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde24/1370/2015/en/">Syria</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/south-sudans-civil-war-spirals-genocide-leaving-ghost-towns-wake">South Sudan</a>, <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/democratic-republic-of-the-congo/">the Democratic Republic of Congo</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2022/saudi-war-crimes-yemen/">Yemen</a>, <a href="https://www.state.gov/burma-genocide/">Myanmar</a> and <a href="https://www.state.gov/war-crimes-crimes-against-humanity-and-ethnic-cleansing-in-ethiopia/">Ethiopia</a>. The responsibility to protect does not have a great track record. </p>
<p>It would appear that even the secretary-general of the United Nations has lost faith in the doctrine. In António Guterres’ recently released policy paper, <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/our-common-agenda-policy-brief-new-agenda-for-peace-en.pdf">New Agenda for Peace</a>, which outlines his vision for creating a more peaceful world, the term “responsibility to protect” does not appear once in the 40-page document.</p>
<p>Perhaps after two decades of limited success, flagrant violations and overall apathy, it is time to retire the responsibility to protect and find a new way to answer Annan’s question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Brand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The international community has also failed to protect civilians in Syria, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen, Myanmar and Ethiopia, a genocide expert writes.Mike Brand, Adjunct Professor of Genocide Studies and Human Rights, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089112023-07-18T12:29:26Z2023-07-18T12:29:26ZChina needs immigrants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537900/original/file-20230717-245914-r0vcf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C44%2C4977%2C3263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Too few children means China needs to look outside the country for new blood.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/little-girl-walk-with-her-parents-on-the-city-street-in-news-photo/958880156?adppopup=true">Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China is entering a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-shrinking-population-is-a-big-deal-counting-the-social-economic-and-political-costs-of-an-aging-smaller-society-198056">severe demographic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>For several centuries, the Asian nation has been the most populous country in the world. But it is now shrinking. In 2022, the country registered <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html">more deaths than births</a>, and it will soon be surpassed by India in total population size – indeed, many demographers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/24/india-overtakes-china-to-become-worlds-most-populous-country">believe this has already occurred</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar who has studied</a> China’s demography for almost 40 years, I know the likelihood is this falling population will lead to an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-chinas-shrinking-population-is-a-big-deal-counting-the-social-economic-and-political-costs-of-an-aging-smaller-society-198056">economic slowdown</a>, with a greater number of dependents and fewer workers to support them. Yet attempts to reverse the trend through policy that <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-comes-up-with-20-recommendations-to-encourage-families-to-have-more-children-572313">encourages couples to have more children</a> have proved ineffective. China will need to turn to other measures to solve its population problem. In short, China needs immigrants.</p>
<h2>More babies or more immigrants?</h2>
<p>The scale of the demographic task facing policymakers in Beijing is vast.</p>
<p>In 2022, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149453055/china-records-1st-population-fall-in-decades-as-births-drop">Chinese government reported</a> 10.41 million deaths in the country and 9.56 million births. This was the first time China has seen more annual deaths than births since the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/08/03/giving-historys-greatest-mass-murderer-his-due/">Great Leap Forward</a> of 1958 to 1962 – during which a severe famine resulting from bad economic policies contributed to 30 million to 40 million more deaths than would have been expected.</p>
<p>If present trends continue, China is expected to lose more than a third of its 1.4 billion population. Some projections have the country dropping to a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/7/15/population-in-more-than-20-countries-to-halve-by-2100-study">population of 800 million by the year 2100</a>.</p>
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<p>The impact of this change will be felt across Chinese society. The country is already aging. The <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/median-age-china-surpassed-united-states">median age in China is now 38</a> compared to 28 just two decades ago. In contrast, India today has <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/">a median age of 28</a>. People of age 65 and over <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/09/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">now comprise 14% of China’s population</a> compared to 7% of India’s.</p>
<p>Once a nation’s population is in decline, there are only two ways to reverse the trend: encourage people to have more children or get people from outside the country to move in.</p>
<p>Many Chinese leaders believe that they can increase China’s population by changing the nation’s fertility policies. In 2015, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/china-abandons-one-child-policy">government abandoned the one-child policy</a>, permitting all couples in China to have two children. In 2021, the two-child policy was abandoned <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html">in favor of a three-child policy</a>. The hope was these changes would result in sizable increases in the national fertility rate, which now stands at 1.2 – well below the level of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age that is needed to replace the population. </p>
<p>But these policy changes have not led to fertility increases in China, and there is little reason to think they will result in any dramatic uptick in the years ahead. This is because most of China’s fertility reduction, especially since the 1990s, has been voluntary and more a result of modernization than fertility control policies. Chinese couples are having fewer children <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/9/despite-three-child-policy-many-in-china-cant-afford-more-kids">due to the higher living costs and educational expenses</a> involved in having more than one child.</p>
<h2>Entering the ‘low fertility trap’</h2>
<p>The total fertility rate in China might go up over the next decade by 0.1 or 0.2 at best, in my opinion. But demographers largely agree that it will never go up by 1.0 or 2.0 – the kind of increase needed if China is to reach the replacement level.</p>
<p>And then there is what demographers refer to as the “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/italy-record-low-birth-rate-intl-cmd/index.html">low fertility trap</a>.” This hypothesis, advanced by demographers in the early 2000s, holds that once a country’s fertility rate drops below 1.5 or 1.4 – and China’s is now at 1.2 – it is very difficult to increase it by a significant amount. The argument goes that fertility declines to these low levels are largely the result of changes in living standards and increasing opportunities for women.</p>
<p>As a result, it is most unlikely that the three-child policy will have any influence at all on raising the fertility rate.</p>
<p>Which leaves immigration. China right now has few residents who were born in a foreign country – there are <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/04/china-needs-foreign-workers-so-why-wont-it-embrace-immigration">now only around 1 million foreign-born residents</a> in China, or less than 0.1% of the population.</p>
<p>In fact, China has the smallest number of international migrants of <a href="https://qz.com/1163632/china-still-has-the-smallest-share-of-incoming-migrants-in-the-world">any major country in the world</a>. Compare its 0.1% of immigrants with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/us/where-immigrants-come-from-cec/index.html">near 14% in the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-immigrants-made-up-over-18-of-2022-population/a-65383249">18% in Germany</a>. Even Japan and South Korea – which historically have not been high-immigration countries – have higher percentages of foreign-born population, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/japan-immigration-policy-xenophobia-migration/">2% in Japan</a> and <a href="https://inmykorea.com/how-many-foreigners-in-korea/#:%7E:text=Currently%2C%20foreign%20residents%20make%20up,increase%20to%204.3%25%20by%202040.">3% in South Korea</a>.</p>
<p>It isn’t just the low numbers of immigrants that is a problem. China also faces the problem of growing numbers of its population moving to other countries, including the U.S. In 2017, for example, an <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf">estimated 10 million people moved from China</a> to live and work in other countries.</p>
<h2>Overcoming racial purity</h2>
<p>China must change its immigration policies if it is to reverse its demographic trend. </p>
<p>Currently, foreign-born people cannot attain Chinese citizenship unless they are children of Chinese nationals. Also, foreigners are only allowed to purchase one piece of property in China, and it must be their residence.</p>
<p>But changing immigration policy will likely require a change in mindset. </p>
<p>In a recent story in The Economist, the <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/04/china-needs-foreign-workers-so-why-wont-it-embrace-immigration">reporter notes that Chinese</a> “officials boast of a single Chinese bloodline dating back thousands of years.” And that taps into a seemingly <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/racism-is-alive-and-well-in-china/">deep-rooted belief in racial purity</a> held by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/11/world/asia/china-sperm-communist-party.html">many leaders in</a> the Chinese Communist Party. In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/2/4/ksac070/6947853">told Donald Trump</a>, then America’s president: “We people are the original people, black hair, yellow skin, inherited onwards. We call ourselves the descendants of the dragon.”</p>
<p>The best way to maintain this racial purity, <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005267">many in China believe</a>, is to limit or prohibit migration into China.</p>
<p>But relaxing immigration policy will not only boost numbers, it will also offset any drop in productivity caused by an aging population. Immigrants are typically of prime working age and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/immigrants-outperform-native-born-americans-two-key-measures-financial-success-n1020291">very productive</a>; they also tend to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/26/5-facts-about-immigrant-mothers-and-u-s-fertility-trends/">have more babies</a> than native-born residents.</p>
<p>The U.S. and many European countries have relied for decades on international migration to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/">bolster their working-age population</a>. For immigration to have any reasonable impacts in China, the numbers of people coming into China will need to increase tremendously in the next decade or so – to around 50 million, perhaps higher. Otherwise, in the coming decades, China’s demographic destiny will be one of population losses every year, with more deaths than births, and the country will soon have one of the oldest populations in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinese politicians have looked toward policies to encourage couples to have more children to offset population decline. It hasn’t worked.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093742023-07-10T17:26:03Z2023-07-10T17:26:03ZWhat’s on the agenda as Biden heads to NATO summit: 5 essential reads as Western alliance talks expansion, Ukraine<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536635/original/file-20230710-12553-71np5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C16%2C5442%2C3812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flagging alliance? Far from it.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photograph-taken-on-july-10-shows-the-turkish-nato-and-news-photo/1518683648?adppopup=true">Yves Herman/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leaders of the nations comprising NATO will meet for a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/whats-table-nato-vilnius-summit-2023-07-07/">two-day summit</a> beginning on July 11, 2023.</p>
<p>The gathering in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, comes at a pivotal moment for the Western security alliance – it is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186712386/biden-is-in-europe-to-focus-on-u-s-alliances-and-nato-expansion">seeking to expand membership</a> and confront challenges ranging from the ongoing <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/ukraine-invasion-2022-117045">war in Ukraine</a> to a <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/">perceived growing military threat</a> from China.</p>
<p>No doubt NATO members will want to present a united front at the meeting. But on a number of key issues, not everyone is in agreement. Here are some of the issues likely to be discussed and debated during the leaders’ summit.</p>
<h2>1. A pathway to Ukraine membership?</h2>
<p>With war in Europe the obvious backdrop to the summit, much talk will be about Ukraine. NATO members have been aiding Kyiv individually, through the supply of arms and aid. And the military alliance has been assisting through nonlethal support, such as medical supplies and training. But, as noted by <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/gov/webber-mark.aspx">Mark Webber</a>, professor of international politics at the U.K.’s University of Birmingham, what many in Kyiv <a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-vilnius-summit-will-reflect-fresh-sense-of-purpose-over-ukraine-war-but-hard-questions-remain-over-membership-issues-208293">really want is full membership</a>: “The bigger prize for Ukraine, however, is NATO membership. That would bring the country within the collective defense provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and, in effect, extend U.S. – and U.K. – nuclear guarantees to Ukrainian territory.”</p>
<p>Webber noted that accommodating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request for “expedited” membership of the alliance will be difficult. “No one in NATO is arguing in favor of granting membership while Ukraine remains at war. Beyond that, the allies are divided.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nato-vilnius-summit-will-reflect-fresh-sense-of-purpose-over-ukraine-war-but-hard-questions-remain-over-membership-issues-208293">Nato: Vilnius summit will reflect fresh sense of purpose over Ukraine war – but hard questions remain over membership issues</a>
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<h2>2. What about Sweden?</h2>
<p>The NATO leaders’ summit will be the first at which the members present will include Finland, which joined in April. Fellow Nordic state Sweden is hoping to be next, perhaps even officially becoming the group’s 32nd member at the Vilnius meetup. </p>
<p>Sweden’s ascension had been held up by NATO member Turkey. Turkey’s recently reelected leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had previous blocked the bid due to what he saw as the Swedish government’s reluctance to crack down on Kurdish “terrorists” being “harbored” in Sweden. But on the eve of the Vilnius summit, it was announced that Erdoğan had agreed to forward Sweden’s bid to the Turkish parliament for ratification.</p>
<p><a href="https://ii.umich.edu/ii/people/all/r/rgsuny.html">Ronald Suny</a>, a historian at University of Michigan, noted that Erdoğan’s reluctance to allow Sweden and Finland entry represented domestic concerns – international pressure on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, fits his agenda of suppressing Kurdish rights in Turkey. But it also highlights an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-turkey-isnt-on-board-with-finland-sweden-joining-nato-and-why-that-matters-183277">underlying problem the alliance is facing</a>:</p>
<p>“NATO is supposed to be an alliance of democratic countries. Yet several of its members – notably Turkey and Hungary – have moved steadily away from liberal democracy toward ethnonational populist authoritarianism,” Suny wrote. “Finland and Sweden, on the other hand, fulfill the parameters of NATO membership more clearly than several of the alliance’s current members. As the United States proclaims that the war in Ukraine is a struggle between democracy and autocracy, Turkey’s opposition to the Nordics who have protested its drift to illiberalism are testing the unity and the ideological coherence of NATO.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-turkey-isnt-on-board-with-finland-sweden-joining-nato-and-why-that-matters-183277">Why Turkey isn't on board with Finland, Sweden joining NATO – and why that matters</a>
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<h2>3. The benefit of being a NATO member</h2>
<p>But why would Finland, Sweden, Ukraine and any other country look to join NATO? John Deni at American University School of International Service explained that Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-poland-demand-nato-act-in-event-of-russian-attack-an-expert-explains-article-4-and-5-commitments-following-missile-blast-194714">calls for collective action</a> should any member be attacked.</p>
<p>“Article 5 really is the heart and soul of the NATO alliance. It is the part of the treaty that says that if one member is attacked, then all of the other members will treat it as an attack on them all. In effect, it calls for a collective response once requested by any of the current 30 members of NATO and invoked by the entire alliance,” he wrote.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the U.S. would have to mount a military response should an ally be attacked. “Article 5 was written in such a way that it allows each ally to decide for itself the best course of action to take – there is no prescribed response once the article is invoked,” Deni added.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-poland-demand-nato-act-in-event-of-russian-attack-an-expert-explains-article-4-and-5-commitments-following-missile-blast-194714">Could Poland demand NATO act in event of Russian attack? An expert explains Article 4 and 5 commitments following missile blast</a>
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<h2>4. The end of the neutral option?</h2>
<p>As Finland’s and Sweden’s desire to join NATO shows, smaller nations traditionally seen as aspiring to neutrality are, in the words of University of Michigan’s Ronald Suny, “recalculating how they fit into this renewed division of the world.”</p>
<p>Suny noted that, with Finland’s entry into NATO and the now high chance of once-neutral Sweden joining it, <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">other states are questioning</a> “the efficacy of nonalignment in a polarized world.” </p>
<p>“In its place, we have the ‘NATOfication’ of Eastern Europe – something that Putin unwittingly accelerated and which leaves Putin’s Russia with less accommodating neighbors,” Suny wrote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-nato-and-the-evolving-new-world-order-what-small-nations-know-203278">Finland, NATO and the evolving new world order – what small nations know</a>
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<h2>5. A cluster bomb controversy</h2>
<p>A last-minute area of controversy emerged as NATO leaders prepared to gather in Vilnius: cluster bombs.</p>
<p>On July 7, 2023, the Biden administration announced that it would supply Ukraine with the controversial munition, which scatters bomblets across a wide area. The problem is not all NATO countries are in agreement with the U.S. move. Germany, the U.K. and Canada – which are among the 120-plus countries that have signed an international treaty banning the use of cluster bombs – have all already expressed their misgivings.</p>
<p>Robert Goldman, a laws of war expert at American University, explained that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-legal-reason-the-us-cant-supply-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-but-that-doesnt-make-biden-decision-to-do-so-morally-right-207717">White House had previously shown hesitancy</a> over selling cluster bombs to Ukraine in part because of the “optics” and over concerns that “it may introducing a wedge between the U.S. and other NATO countries.”</p>
<p>Goldman explained that there is no law preventing the U.S. from providing cluster bombs to the Ukraine or any other country. “Nonetheless, providing Ukraine with cluster weapons could serve to destigmatize them and runs counter to international efforts to end their use. And that, in turn, could encourage – or excuse – their use by other states that may be less responsible,” he argued.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-legal-reason-the-us-cant-supply-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-but-that-doesnt-justify-bidens-decision-to-do-so-207717">There is no legal reason the US can’t supply cluster bombs to Ukraine – but that doesn’t justify Biden's decision to do so</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This article was updated on July 10, 2023 in light of Turkey agreeing to forward Sweden’s NATO bid for ratification.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209374/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Leaders of the Western military alliance meet in Lithuania with the ongoing war in Ukraine as a backdrop.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2091152023-07-06T16:38:28Z2023-07-06T16:38:28ZIsrael’s assault in Jenin will only further erode the Palestinian Authority’s legitimacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536070/original/file-20230706-21-ythtq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C67%2C4962%2C3255&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Palestinian Authority officials were chased from funerals like this one in Jenin on July 5, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mourners-carry-the-bodies-of-palestinian-men-some-draped-in-news-photo/1504653260?adppopup=true">Nasser Ishtayeh/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Israeli soldiers withdrew from the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/02/world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-jenin.html">two days of fighting</a>, Israel’s generals and politicians were quick to hail the major military operation there a success. </p>
<p>Herzl Halevi, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-07-05/ty-article/netanyahu-israel-will-complete-mission-in-jenin-operation-is-not-a-one-off/00000189-219a-df82-a78f-65bad9ab0000">declared</a>, “We hit the terrorists hard, we arrested many and destroyed many of their weapons and ammunition.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <a href="https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-748850">praised the military</a> for destroying “many terrorist infrastructures.”</p>
<p>But however successful in the short term, no military operation can resolve what I see as the underlying problem that caused Jenin’s refugee camp to become what Netanyahu has described as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/jenin-refugee-camp-west-bank-israel-military-operation">“safe haven” for Palestinian militants</a>.</p>
<p>That problem is a <a href="http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1031232686&Country=Palestine&topic=Politics&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Political+stability">legitimacy crisis</a> facing the Palestinian Authority – the self-governing body that has limited rule over parts of the occupied West Bank, including Jenin, that are not directly ruled by Israel.</p>
<p>As a scholar who specializes on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and has written a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Israeli-Palestinian-Conflict-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/0190625333">book about it</a>, I believe that this latest military operation will, in fact, only worsen that legitimacy crisis. Indeed, when three senior Palestinian Authority officials <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinians-defiant-amid-damage-after-israel-ends-jenin-raid-2023-07-05/">attended a mass funeral in Jenin on July 5, 2023</a>, for some of the Palestinians killed in the fighting – at least 12 Palestinians were killed, most confirmed as militants – they were accused by mourners of weakness and quickly forced to leave by an angry crowd chanting, “Get out! Get out!”</p>
<h2>Failure to provide security</h2>
<p>The Israeli military’s incursion into Jenin’s densely populated refugee camp is just the most recent operation it has conducted in the northern West Bank city over the past two years. To be sure, the assault of June 3-4 was on a much greater scale than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-raid.html">previous raids into Jenin</a>. It was the largest that Israel has conducted in the West Bank since <a href="https://ecf.org.il/issues/issue/982">Operation Defensive Shield in 2002</a> during the Palestinian uprising of 2000-05, known as the second intifada. It was also the first time that Israel has used air strikes since then. </p>
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<p>But the reason for this incursion was fundamentally the same as the reason why Israel has staged previous raids into Jenin – as well as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/world/middleeast/west-bank-nablus-palestinians-killed.html">into Nablus</a>, another city in the northern West Bank – in recent years. That is, these cities have effectively become <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/2022-04-13/ty-article-magazine/.premium/once-a-developing-city-jenin-has-turned-into-a-terror-hotbed/00000180-5bcb-db1e-a1d4-dfebdd5a0000">sanctuaries for armed Palestinian militants</a> from which they regularly carry out <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/world/middleeast/israelis-attacked-west-bank.html">shooting attacks against both Israeli soldiers and civilians</a>. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">Oslo Accords</a> signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in the early 1990s, the Palestinian Authority is responsible for policing these cities and preventing militants from operating within them. </p>
<p>Yet the growing number of shooting attacks against Israelis that have been conducted by militants based in these areas suggests that it has failed in this task. Israeli officials have said that more than 50 shooting attacks have been carried out by Jenin-area militants <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/why-is-israel-attacking-jenin-west-bank-operation-explained-2023-07-04/">since the beginning of 2023</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/373640">Israeli officials</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/RitchieTorres/status/1676225841011802112">American politicians</a> have blamed the Palestinian Authority and its octogenarian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, for this failure. This criticism, however, overlooks why the Palestinian Authority has lost control over parts of the northern West Bank.</p>
<h2>Unpopular and increasingly autocratic</h2>
<p>The Palestinian Authority has become deeply unpopular with the Palestinian public. In a poll conducted last month by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, <a href="https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/940">63% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza</a> thought the Palestinian Authority is a burden on them, while 50% thought its collapse or dissolution would be in the best interests of the Palestinian public. Abbas himself has even less support – 80% of Palestinians in that survey expressed dissatisfaction with him and wanted him to resign. </p>
<p>The Palestinian Authority’s unpopularity is due to numerous factors. Palestinians have accused it of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/12/10/1063171482/palestinian-dissidents-rally-against-corruption-in-the-palestinian-authority">corruption</a>, <a href="https://www.972mag.com/palestinian-authority-protests-vaccines-oslo/">incompetence</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/world/middleeast/Palestinian-Authority-protesters.html">brutally repressing dissent</a>. Human rights groups have
accused the Palestinian Authority of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/palestine-state-of/report-palestine-state-of/">arbitrarily arresting people</a> and even torturing detainees. </p>
<p>The Palestinian Authority has undoubtedly become increasingly autocratic and authoritarian. There has not been a presidential election since 2005, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/world/middleeast/palestinian-vote-delayed.html">the last legislative elections were held in 2006</a>. The continued schism between Abbas’s Fatah party and Hamas – a bitter rival that governs the Palestinian enclave of Gaza – has prevented its parliament, the Palestinian Legislative Council, from functioning. As a result, Abbas <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/25/palestinian-lawyers-protest-against-abbas-governing-by-decree">rules by decree</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men and one woman sit around a large conference table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535926/original/file-20230705-2979-6g78ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas chairs an emergency meeting of the Palestinian leadership on July 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/palestinian-president-mahmoud-abbas-chairs-an-emergency-news-photo/1490158780?adppopup=true">Palestinian President Office/Handout via Xinhua</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The PA’s <a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/04/23/halting-palestine-s-democratic-decline-pub-84383">democratic decline</a> is a product of a deeper, more fundamental problem: It has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/07/palestinians-authority-protests/">lost its legitimacy among an increasing number of Palestinians</a>.</p>
<p>The reason for this, I believe, is that the Palestinian Authority has lost its raison d'etre. It was created in 1994 with the intention that it would be the embryo of a future Palestinian state. According to the Oslo Accords, it was meant to exist only temporarily – for no more than five years – during which time a peace agreement between Israel and the PLO would be negotiated, resulting in Palestinian statehood. </p>
<h2>Fading hopes of statehood</h2>
<p>Nearly three decades later, the Palestinian Authority still exists, but Palestinian statehood looks like a distant prospect at best.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the land on which Palestinians expected this state would be built has been steadily eaten away by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-settlements-expansion.html">relentless Israeli settlement building</a>. Indeed, most Palestinians have <a href="https://pcpsr.org/en/node/912">given up their hope for a Palestinian state</a>.</p>
<p>The peace process appears to be dead – the Biden administration hasn’t even tried to resuscitate it – and Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, which began 56 years ago, seems permanent. </p>
<p>In such a bleak situation, the Palestinian Authority has become merely a municipal government – operating in the 40% of the West Bank that Israel prefers to avoid ruling over directly.</p>
<p>In addition to providing public services such as education and health care to Palestinians, its main function is to assist the Israeli army and security services to prevent Palestinian violence against Israelis. Yet, it is unable to prevent Israeli violence against Palestinians, which happens on a regular, and sometimes daily, basis, especially by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/world/middleeast/settler-violence-west-bank.html">extremist Jewish settlers</a>.</p>
<p>It is little wonder, therefore, that many Palestinians regard the Palestinian Authority as a collaborator with Israel, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/7/14/pa-security-forces-are-not-serving-the-palestinian-people">a facilitator of Israel’s occupation, rather than a means to end it</a>. </p>
<p>The Palestinian Authority’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/06/palestinian-authority-israel-west-bank-security-cooperation-suspended-mahmoud-abbas/">security cooperation with Israel is most unpopular</a>, which is why its officials and particularly the members of its security forces have become reluctant to perform this mission.</p>
<p>As a result, the Palestinian Authority has gradually lost control over places like Jenin and Nablus, leaving a power vacuum that has been filled by militant groups. </p>
<p>Some of these groups, specifically Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have ties with Iran, which <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-raisi-meets-with-top-hamas-and-islamic-jihad-officials-urges-israels-defeat/">encourages them to attack Israelis</a> in order to destabilize the West Bank. </p>
<p>Others are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/04/world/middleeast/west-bank-lions-den.html">newly formed, unaffiliated groups</a> composed of armed young men and teenagers, whose violence is driven by despair, desperation and a desire for revenge.</p>
<p>These are the militants in Jenin whom the IDF has tried to capture or kill during its most recent military operation there. </p>
<p>No doubt, as Israeli authorities have said, the raid has succeeded in arresting some and killing others. </p>
<p>But this success comes at a steep price – first and foremost, to Palestinian civilians, but also to the Palestinian Authority. Unable to prevent this Israeli incursion or protect Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority’s impotence is apparent for all to see. This will, I believe, only worsen its standing in the eyes of the Palestinian public and exacerbate its legitimacy crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dov Waxman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The West Bank governing body has seen its popularity erode amid accusations of corruption and incompetence.Dov Waxman, Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Professor of Israel Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090842023-07-05T15:05:37Z2023-07-05T15:05:37ZJenin has long been seen as the capital of Palestinian resistance and militancy – the latest raid will do little to shake that reputation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535787/original/file-20230705-15-3eaw2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C0%2C3211%2C2165&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Palestinian confronts Israeli military vehicles in the Jenin refugee camp on July 4, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/palestinian-confronts-israeli-military-vehicles-with-the-news-photo/1501982783?adppopup=true">Nasser Ishtayeh/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Israeli troops <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-west-bank-jenin-militants-raids-ba4cfdd551349900aefb43158b6f2bcb">withdrew from Jenin</a> on July 4, 2023 after two days of heavy aerial bombardment and ground invasion. According to reports, 12 Palestinians were killed and over 100 wounded in what the Israeli military <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66095622">described as a “counter-terrorism operation</a>”. One Israeli soldier was also reportedly <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-soldier-killed-in-jenin-operation-shortly-before-troops-begin-to-withdraw/">killed</a>.</p>
<p>The site of the latest confrontation is not new. The <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/sites/default/files/unrwa_west_bank-_jenin_camp_profile.pdf">Jenin refugee camp</a>, on the western edge of the town of Jenin in the north of the occupied West Bank, has often experienced violence between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants. </p>
<p>On July 3, the Israeli government said it needed to enter Jenin to arrest militants it accuses of terrorism, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning that the operation <a href="https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/israeli-soldier-killed-as-jenin-operation-ends-3r6Evu12Bx4sa4yHagWra0">would not be a “one-time action</a>.” </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://menas.arizona.edu/person/maha-nassar">scholar of Palestinian history</a>, I see this recent episode as the latest chapter in a much longer history of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">Palestinian displacement and defiance</a> of Israeli occupation. Understanding this history helps explain why the Jenin camp in particular has become a center of Palestinian militant resistance.</p>
<h2>Camp conditions</h2>
<p>Jenin, an agricultural town that dates back to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/34673729/Jenin_at_the_Edge_of_Marj_Ibn_Amer">ancient times</a>, has long been a center of Palestinian resistance. During the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Arab fighters <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/42944387">successfully pushed back</a> Israeli attempts to capture the town. </p>
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<p>At the end of that war, the town became a refuge for some of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nakba-at-75-palestinians-struggle-to-get-recognition-for-their-catastrophe-204782">who fled or were expelled</a> from lands that became part of Israel. Jenin, along with the hilly interior of Palestine known as the West Bank, was annexed by Jordan.</p>
<p>The UN Relief and Works Agency <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/west-bank/jenin-camp">established the Jenin camp</a> in 1953, just west of the city. Since then, the agency has <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/west-bank/jenin-camp">provided basic services</a> to the camp’s residents, including food, housing and education. </p>
<p>Camp conditions have always been difficult. In the early years of the camp, refugees had to stand in long lines to receive food rations, and for decades their cramped homes <a href="https://www.newarab.com/analysis/jenin-refugee-camp-battle-never-ended">lacked electricity or running water</a>.</p>
<p>The Jenin camp soon became the poorest and most densely populated of the West Bank’s 19 refugee camps. And given its location near the “<a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-1967-border-the-quot-green-line-quot">Green Line</a>” – the armistice line that serves as Israel’s de facto border – camp residents who were expelled from northern Palestine could actually see the homes and villages from which they were expelled. But they were prevented from returning to them.</p>
<h2>The rise of militancy</h2>
<p>Since 1967, Jenin, along with the rest of the West Bank, has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52756427">occupied by the Israeli military</a>.</p>
<p>The Israeli occupation of Jenin compounded the difficulties of these refugees. As stateless Palestinians, they couldn’t return home. But under Israeli occupation, they couldn’t live freely in Jenin, either. Human rights groups have long documented what has been described as “<a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">systematic oppression</a>,” <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/">which includes</a> discriminatory land seizures, forced evictions and travel restrictions.</p>
<p>Seeing no other path forward, many of the camp’s young refugees turned to <a href="https://www.newarab.com/opinion/case-armed-resistance">armed resistance</a>.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, groups such as the <a href="https://www.newarab.com/analysis/jenin-refugee-camp-battle-never-ended">Black Panthers</a>, which was affiliated with the Palestinian nationalist Fatah organization, launched attacks on Israeli targets in an effort to end the occupation and liberate what they saw as their lands. Throughout the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080066/israel-palestine-intifadas-first-second">first intifada</a> – a Palestinian uprising lasting from 1987 to 1993 – the <a href="https://www.newarab.com/analysis/jenin-refugee-camp-battle-never-ended">Israeli army raided</a> the Jenin camp many times, seeking to arrest members of militant groups. In the process, Israeli forces also sometimes <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/mde150332004en.pdf">demolished family members’ homes and arrested relatives</a>. Such acts of apparent collective punishment reinforced the idea for many Palestinians that the Israeli occupation could only be ended by force.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men in headscarves stand in front of flags and banners. One holds a pistol up in the air." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535792/original/file-20230705-28-e7lp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the militant group Fatah in Jenin in 1991.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstration-of-palestinian-fatah-in-jenin-israel-on-news-photo/110149530?adppopup=true">Esaias Baitel/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">Oslo peace process</a> of the 1990s – which consisted of a series of meetings between Israeli government and Palestinian representatives – led some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/09/09/intifada-warrior-ready-for-peace/63fa9bcb-1bac-4c20-9fbb-d0bddfc8f94d/">former militants to hope</a> that the occupation could be ended through negotiations instead. But Jenin’s camp residents remained marginalized in the West Bank and sealed off from Israel, seeing <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/lost-potential-jenin/31511">little improvement</a> in their lives, even after the transfer of administrative powers from Israel to the Palestinian Authority in 1995.</p>
<p>Independent projects like the <a href="https://thefreedomtheatre.org">The Freedom Theater</a> provided some relief to the camp’s refugee children, but it was not enough to overcome the grinding poverty and violence they faced. By the time the second intifada broke out in 2000, many of the camp’s teenagers <a href="https://participant.com/film/arnas-children">joined militant groups</a>. That included Freedom Theater co-founder Zakaria Zubeidi, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/discover/palestine-zakaria-zubeidi-revolutionary-artistic-leader">who joined</a> the Fatah-affiliated Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Like the youth of the 1980s, they, too, concluded that only armed resistance would bring an end to the occupation.</p>
<h2>A cycle of violence?</h2>
<p>In April 2002 the Israeli army invaded the Jenin camp, hoping to put an end to such armed groups. There were fierce clashes between Israeli soldiers and young Palestinian men in the camp, solidifying Jenin’s reputation among Palestinians as “<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/04/13/jenin-escalation-israeli-palestinian-conflict-attacks">the capital of the resistance</a>.”</p>
<p>The lack of progress on peace talks since then, Israel’s <a href="https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/200205_land_grab">illegal settlement building</a> on occupied land, and the inclusion of hard-line Israeli politicians in the government have exacerbated resentment in the camp. Polls show Palestinians increasingly <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/amid-israeli-violence-palestinians-back-armed-resistance">support armed resistance</a>.</p>
<p>Seemingly alarmed by the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/why-is-israel-attacking-jenin-west-bank-operation-explained-2023-07-04/">increase in militancy and the stockpiling of weapons</a> in the camp, Israel dramatically stepped up its raids into the camp in 2022. It was during such a raid that Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-media-reports-of-clashes-mislead-americans-about-israeli-palestinian-violence-183077">was killed</a> by an Israeli soldier.</p>
<p>The latest raid, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/02/middleeast/israel-jenin-camp-idf-raid-west-bank-intl-hnk/index.html">many journalists have noted</a>, may be the biggest operation in the camp in 20 years. But it was built on decades of resistance and militant defiance that will, I believe, only increase with the latest deaths and destruction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maha Nassar served as a 2022 Palestinian non-resident fellow at the Foundation for Middle East Peace.</span></em></p>Israeli troops have withdrawn after two days of fighting in a camp in the occupied West Bank. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that it would not be a ‘one-time action.’Maha Nassar, Associate Professor in the School of Middle Eastern and North African Studies, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079592023-07-03T11:51:47Z2023-07-03T11:51:47ZThe Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534689/original/file-20230628-19-ibxriy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world turned upside down</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/global-south-royalty-free-illustration/1456945486?phrase=%22global+south%22&adppopup=true">iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The unwillingness of many leading countries <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-new-york-city-billionaires-comparison-2021-4#:%7E:text=new%20billionaire%20capital.-,For%20the%20first%20time%20ever%2C%20Beijing%20is%20home%20to%20more,City's%2099%20billionaires%2C%20per%20Forbes.">in Africa</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/india-remaining-neutral-russias-invasion-ukraine/story?id=97891228">Asia</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/americas/brazil-ukraine-weapons.html">and Latin America</a> to stand with NATO over the war in Ukraine has brought to the fore once again the term “Global South.”</p>
<p>“Why does so much of the Global South support Russia?” <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/03/29/why-does-so-much-of-the-global-south-support-russia-not-ukraine">inquired one recent headline</a>; “Ukraine courts ‘Global South’ in push to challenge Russia,” <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/ukraine-courts-global-south-in-push-to-challenge-russia">declared another</a>.</p>
<p>But what is meant by that term, and why has it gained currency in recent years?</p>
<p>The Global South refers to various countries around the world that are <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/01/04/372684438/if-you-shouldnt-call-it-the-third-world-what-should-you-call-it">sometimes described as “developing</a>,” “less developed” or “underdeveloped.” Many of these countries – although by no means all – are in the Southern Hemisphere, largely in Africa, Asia and Latin America.</p>
<p>In general, they are poorer, have higher levels of income inequality and suffer lower life expectancy and harsher living conditions <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/global-south-countries">than countries in the “Global North</a>” — that is, richer nations that are located mostly in North America and Europe, with some additions in Oceania and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>Going beyond the ‘Third World’</h2>
<p>The term Global South appears to have been first used in 1969 by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/us/carl-oglesby-antiwar-leader-in-1960s-dies-at-76.html">political activist Carl Oglesby</a>. Writing in the <a href="https://aesop-planning.eu/images/uploads/special_issue_final-theories-gloabl-south.pdf">liberal Catholic magazine Commonweal</a>, Oglesby argued that the war in Vietnam was the culmination of a history of northern “dominance over the global south.”</p>
<p>But it was only after the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union#:%7E:text=On%20December%2025%2C%201991%2C%20the,the%20newly%20independent%20Russian%20state.">1991 breakup of the Soviet Union</a> – which marked the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/second-world-countries">end of the so-called “Second World</a>” – that the term gained momentum.</p>
<p>Until then, the more common term for developing nations – countries that had yet to industrialize fully – was “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3180660">Third World</a>.”</p>
<p>That term was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/01/obituaries/alfred-sauvy-expert-on-demographics-92.html">coined by Alfred Sauvy</a> in 1952, in an analogy with France’s historical three estates: the nobility, the clergy and the bourgeoisie. The term “First World” referred to the advanced capitalist nations; the “Second World,” to the socialist nations led by the Soviet Union; and the “Third World,” to developing nations, many at the time still under the colonial yoke.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/mar/28/peter-worsley">Sociologist Peter Worsley</a>’s 1964 book, “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo4432964.html">The Third World: A Vital New Force in International Affairs</a>,” further popularized the term. The book also made note of the “Third World” forming the backbone of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-non-aligned-movement-in-the-21st-century-66057">Non-Aligned Movement</a>, which had been founded just three years earlier as a riposte to bipolar Cold War alignment.</p>
<p>Though Worsley’s view of this “Third World” was positive, the term became associated with countries plagued by poverty, squalor and instability. “Third World” became a synonym for banana republics ruled by tinpot dictators – a <a href="https://cyber.harvard.edu/digitaldemocracy/mezzana.htm">caricature spread by Western media</a>.</p>
<p>The fall of the Soviet Union – and with it the end of the so-called Second World – gave a convenient pretext for the term “Third World” to disappear, too. Usage of the term fell rapidly in the 1990s.</p>
<p>Meanwhile “developed,” “developing” and “underdeveloped” <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/01/04/372684438/if-you-shouldnt-call-it-the-third-world-what-should-you-call-it">also faced criticism</a> for holding up Western countries as the ideal, while portraying those outside that club as backwards.</p>
<p>Increasingly the term that was being used to replace them was the more neutral-sounding “Global South.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph shows a line depicting usage of the term 'Third World' which bulges in the mid 1980s." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=223&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534696/original/file-20230628-21-vgi7ot.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart shows the usage over time of ‘Global South,’ Third World,‘ and 'Developing countries’ in English language sources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Global+South%2CThird+World%2CDeveloping+countries&year_start=1945&year_end=2019&corpus=en-2019&smoothing=3">Google Books Ngram Viewer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Geopolitical, not geographical</h2>
<p>The term “Global South” is not geographical. In fact, the Global South’s two largest countries – China and India – lie entirely in the Northern Hemisphere. </p>
<p>Rather, its usage denotes a mix of political, geopolitical and economic commonalities between nations.</p>
<p>Countries in the Global South were mostly at the receiving end of imperialism and colonial rule, with African countries as perhaps the most visible example of this. It gives them a very different outlook on what <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2016/11/23/dependency-theory-a-useful-tool-for-analyzing-global-inequalities-today/">dependency theorists</a> have described as the relationship between the center and periphery in the world political economy – or, to put it in simple terms, the relationship between “the West and the rest.” </p>
<p>Given the imbalanced past relationship between many of the countries of the Global South and the Global North – both during the age of empire and the Cold War – it is little wonder that today many opt <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/02/27/non-alignment-is-back-in-the-global-south-albeit-in-a-different-incarnation/">not to be aligned with any one great power</a>.</p>
<p>And whereas the terms “Third World” and “underdeveloped” convey images of economic powerlessness, that isn’t true of the “Global South.”</p>
<p>Since the turn of the 21st century, a “<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/shaping-the-asia-pacific-economic-order-2/">shift in wealth</a>,” as<a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/554911468179972438/pdf/96467-PUB-PUBLIC-Box391437B-9781464803550-EMBARGOED-19May2015-930am.pdf"> the World Bank has referred</a> to it, from the North Atlantic to Asia Pacific has upended much of the conventional wisdom on where the world’s riches are being generated.</p>
<p>By 2030 <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-to-fall-behind-china-within-a-year-standard-chartered-says-2019-1">it is projected</a> that three of the four largest economies will be from the Global South – with the order being China, India, the United States and Indonesia. Already the GDP in terms of purchasing power of the the Global South-dominated BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/03/27/the-brics-has-overtaken-the-g7-in-global-gdp/">surpasses that of the Global North’s G7 club</a>. And there are now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-new-york-city-billionaires-comparison-2021-4#:%7E:text=new%20billionaire%20capital.-,For%20the%20first%20time%20ever%2C%20Beijing%20is%20home%20to%20more,City's%2099%20billionaires%2C%20per%20Forbes.">more billionaires in Beijing</a> than in New York City. </p>
<h2>Global South on the march</h2>
<p>This economic shift has gone hand in hand with enhanced political visibility. Countries in the Global South are increasingly asserting themselves on the global scene – be it <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-longterm-partnership-with-us-fades-saudi-arabia-seeks-to-diversify-its-diplomacy-and-recent-deals-with-china-iran-and-russia-fit-this-strategy-202211">China’s brokering of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement</a> or Brazil’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/americas/brazil-lula-ukraine-peace-coalition-intl-latam/index.html">attempt to push a peace plan</a> to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>This shift in economic and political power has led experts in geopolitics like <a href="https://www.paragkhanna.com/">Parag Khanna</a> and <a href="https://mahbubani.net/">Kishore Mahbubani</a> to write about the <a href="https://www.paragkhanna.com/book/the-future-is-asian-commerce-conflict-and-culture-in-the-21st-century/">coming of an “Asian Century</a>.” Others, like political scientist <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/2031">Oliver Stuenkel</a>, have began <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/op-ed/2017/04/29/making-the-most-of-a-post-western-world">talking about a “post-Western world</a>.”</p>
<p>One thing is for sure: The Global South is flexing political and economic muscles that the “developing countries” and the “Third World” never had.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorge Heine is a Wilson Center Global Fellow and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization and a former Chilean ambassador to China, to India and to South Africa.</span></em></p>Terms like ‘Third World’ and ‘developing nations’ have long fallen out of fashion.Jorge Heine, Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087082023-06-30T22:35:33Z2023-06-30T22:35:33ZCambodia PM Hun Sen will shut down opposition on election day – even if he can no longer threaten voters on Facebook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535079/original/file-20230630-14093-3ojj3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5746%2C3879&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cambodian PM Hun Sen takes a selfie -- but where will he post it now? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-takes-selfies-with-a-news-photo/1258807502?adppopup=true">Rang Xhhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen will no longer be able to use his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">Facebook page</a> to air threats of violence against opposition supporters – but that doesn’t mean he can’t still suppress their vote as the country <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">prepares for a general election</a>.</p>
<p>On June 30, 2023, the Facebook page of Hun Sen – who has ruled the country as leader of the Cambodian People’s Party for almost four decades – <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">appeared to have been deleted</a>. It wasn’t immediately clear whether <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">Hun Sen had removed the page</a> or Meta had taken it down. But it follows a <a href="https://www.oversightboard.com/news/656303619335474-oversight-board-overturns-meta-s-decision-in-cambodian-prime-minister-case/">recommendation by the oversight board</a> of Facebook’s parent company to “immediately suspend Hun Sen’s Facebook page and Instagram account for six months” over a video in which he calls on political opponents who allege vote-rigging to choose between the “legal system” and “a bat.” In the video posted on Facebook on Jan. 9, Hun Sen also threatens to “gather CPP people to protest and beat (opposition) up.”</p>
<p>The decision comes as a slap in the face for Hun Sen, who <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-huge-facebook-fan-100535327">had regularly posted on Facebook</a> to his 14 million followers. But as an <a href="https://thunderbird.asu.edu/about/people/staff-faculty/sophal-ear">expert on Cambodian politics</a>, I know it will do little to affect the result of the general election scheduled for July 23, 2023. Cambodia has had Hun Sen as prime minister <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-hun-sen-hun-manet-prime-minister-0095b3362ca2d5af4f14dd77c76ef351">for 38 years</a>. And recent events have only tightened Hun Sen’s grip on power.</p>
<h2>Many parties, no opposition</h2>
<p>Voters heading to the polls will again be presented with a lack of real choice – as has been the case in the six national parliamentary ballots held since <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44966916">nominally democratic elections were restored</a> in 1993.</p>
<p>It isn’t that there won’t be many parties that voters will be able to choose among on July 23. In fact, there will be numerous parties on the ballot, along with the ruling Cambodian People’s Party. In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/29/cambodia-hun-sen-re-elected-in-landslide-victory-after-brutal-crackdown">2018 national election</a> there were 19 parties other than the CPP.</p>
<p>The problem for democracy watchers is that the list of parties allowed to run does not include the main opposition party, the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/cambodia-national-rescue-party-cnrp/">Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP was conveniently <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2017-12-06/cambodia-supreme-court-dissolves-main-opposition-party/">dissolved on Nov. 16, 2017</a>, by order of the Cambodian Supreme Court – which has as its head a permanent committee member of Hun Sen’s CPP.</p>
<p>Further, the Candle Light Party – the last vestige of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-opposition-party-election-hun-sen-63659ff8f2de992d84d2be748afbab8b">real, credible opposition in Cambodia</a> – was not permitted to register for the forthcoming election for bureaucratic reasons. The missing paperwork that prevented registration is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-election-candlelight-party-deny-registration-7436b0572eefb9b5be3fa724d3cb2fcb">believed by CLP supporters</a> to have been taken during a police raid on opposition headquarters years ago.</p>
<p>These measures build on decades in which Hun Sen and his ruling CPP have <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/141921/how-hun-sen-killed-democracy-in-cambodia">removed real choice</a> from Cambodian ballots. And for Hun Sen and the CPP it has been effective: In the last election, held in 2018, the CPP <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/7/30/cambodians-spoil-ballots-to-protest-poll-critics-labelled-a-sham">garnered 77% of the vote</a> and took all 123 seats in the National Assembly.</p>
<h2>Khmer Rouge commander to autocratic leader</h2>
<p>Hun Sen rose to power after being installed as deputy prime minister and foreign minister by the Vietnamese forces that <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/pol-pot-overthrown">liberated Cambodia in 1979</a> from the Khmer Rouge – a murderous regime in which <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">Hun Sen served as a commander</a> – and then occupied the country for a decade.</p>
<p>With his country still under Vietnamese occupation, Hun Sen became prime minister in 1985 after his predecessor, Chan Sy, died in office. Since then, he has used the power of incumbency – along with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/09/05/un-office-says-hun-sen-forces-executed-40/20d602e8-9078-41eb-8c34-2e385e86bcc7/">large dose of brute force</a> – to remain in office. </p>
<p>Even when the CPP <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/06/11/phnom-penh-rejects-results-of-election/c43a7f1e-abcf-4ebd-b3b2-fe757f96f930/">lost the popular vote in 1993</a>, Hun Sen was able to elbow his way into a prime ministership-sharing position as “second prime minister” with equal power to the “first prime minister,” Prince <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-cambodian-prime-minister-prince-norodom-ranariddh-has-died-information-2021-11-28/">Norodom Ranariddh</a>, in a deal engineered by Ranariddh’s father, King Norodom Sihanouk.</p>
<p>After falling out with his co-premier, Hun Sen <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2007/07/27/cambodia-july-1997-shock-and-aftermath">orchestrated a coup in 1997</a> and replaced Norodom Ranariddh. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00049910050007032">an election the following year</a>, Hun Sen resumed the role of sole prime minister and embarked on a campaign of repression – arranging for political enemies to be <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">arrested, jailed and sometimes exiled</a>.</p>
<p>He let his guard down in 2012 by allowing opposition leaders Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy to <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0008472/">form the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP came within a whisker of defeating the CPP in the 2013 election – some might even argue that it did, but for who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-election-count/cambodia-election-crisis-deepens-as-opposition-rejects-results-idUSBRE97B02I20130812">controlled the counting of the votes</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, attempts to mount opposition to the CPP have been further blunted by the fact that Cambodia’s economy and society have undergone remarkable change – allowing Hun Sen to <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/prime-minister-hun-sen-shares-message-of-economic-growth--covid-response-success-with-north-american-diaspora-301546659.html">claim credit</a> as <a href="https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501245617/cambodias-economy-resilient-despite-external-factors-says-pm-hun-sen/">a sound manager of the economy</a>. Until the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s annual gross domestic product growth averaged nearly 8% <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/cambodia/overview">from 1998 through 2019</a>. Meanwhile, gross national income based on an average individual’s purchasing power <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=KH">has also grown sixfold</a> since 1995, from US$760 to $5,080.</p>
<p>It has come at a cost though. Economic and infrastructure growth has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cambodia-protests/cambodian-farmers-rise-up-over-land-grabbing-idINSGE62I07I20100319">on the back of a land grab</a> that has disadvantaged rural farmers. I heard of one farmer who described economic development as meaning “they build a road and steal my land.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in hard hats shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen shakes hands with China’s ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wentian.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-shakes-hands-with-chinas-news-photo/1258495631?adppopup=true">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And frequently that road has been Chinese-built with loans that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/cambodia-seeks-more-loans-from-beijing-amid-fears-of-debt-trap-/6943062.html">Cambodian people and their progeny will have to repay</a>. </p>
<h2>From autocracy to nepotocracy?</h2>
<p>Yet, Hun Sen is unwilling to open his record to the scrutiny of voters or a free press.</p>
<p>In advance of the July 23 vote, the government has cracked down on independent media. One of the last truly independent outlets, the Voice of Democracy, was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64621595">shuttered by Hun Sen</a>. Its crime? To publish a story reporting that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hun-sen-s-eldest-son-emerges-as-likely-successor-in-cambodia/7118136.html">prime minister’s son and heir apparent</a> signed, on behalf of his father, an official government donation to Turkey after the earthquake. Only the prime minister is allowed to sign off on foreign aid packages, and Hun Sen said the report had damaged the government’s reputation.</p>
<p>The source had been a senior government official. Yet, Voice of Democracy was nonetheless blamed and told to apologize, which it did, but then was still shuttered.</p>
<p>While Hun Sen has been successful in controlling the media and suppressing opposition in Cambodia, he is unable to prevent international scrutiny and sanction.</p>
<p>Cambodia’s anti-democratic rule and human rights abuses have been <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230310IPR77236/human-rights-breaches-in-iran-tunisia-and-cambodia">condemned by the European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-cambodia-politics-idAFKBN1DE2LY">the White House</a> and <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/03/cambodia-un-experts-condemn-verdict-against-opposition-leader-kem-sokha">the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>Even prior to the most recent crackdown on opposition parties and independent press, the U.S. had <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0475">placed some Cambodian generals on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability list</a>, used to sanction “perpetrators of serious human rights abuse and corruption around the world.” The EU, for its part, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1469">cut by 20% the number of Cambodian goods eligible for zero duty imports</a> over human rights concerns – a move that will cost Cambodia an estimated 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in annual revenue.</p>
<p>But such moves have done little to nudge Cambodia toward democratic practices – and neither will Facebook’s decision to deprive him of a social media account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophal Ear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social media account of Cambodia’s long-serving leader was deleted amid a spat with Facebook over videoed threats of violence against opposition supporters.Sophal Ear, Associate Professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1983492023-04-24T16:18:12Z2023-04-24T16:18:12ZFrom horseback to motorbike: inside the motorcycle boom in Indigenous South America<p>With their tropical climate, flowing rivers and dense forests, the vast plains and basins that make up <a href="https://www.berose.fr/article2131.html?lang=fr#:%7E:text=Since%20the%20first%20contacts%2C%20the,Patagonia%20and%20the%20Atlantic%20coast.">South America’s lowlands</a> cover a significant portion of the continent’s surface. Indeed, the Amazon rainforest covers approximately seven million square kilometres or around 40% of the total land area of South America.</p>
<p>These lowlands are primarily located in the eastern part of South America, stretching from the Andes mountains to the Atlantic Ocean. Two of the main lowland regions are the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Amazon-Basin">Amazon basin</a> and the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Gran-Chaco">Gran Chaco</a> – both diverse landscapes that are home to a wide variety of Indigenous cultures and communities.</p>
<p>As varied as the region is, much of its exuberant landscape has been drastically changed over the past 150 years by the arrival of mechanical machinery. And this is especially the case in territories inhabited by Indigenous people, who have been forced to adapt to new ways of living, with their traditional life transformed or disrupted. </p>
<p>Steamships, railways and trucks used for transportation arrived over the last century – followed by guns, used for both hunting and warfare. The arrival of bulldozers and chainsaws, used by the logging industry, has changed the rainforest forever. Meanwhile, electric generators hum constantly in the background. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521710/original/file-20230418-14-2kcsd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Chacobo man works on his motorbike.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.isrf.org/fellows-projects/motoboom/">Motorbikes</a> are one of the latest machines to hit the lowlands. Over the last two decades, there has been a huge motorbike boom in Indigenous South America, with more and more people buying bikes from the money they make trading rubber, <a href="https://www.thespruceeats.com/what-are-hearts-of-palm-4777298">palm hearts</a> (the pale white inner core from the palm tree), and Brazil nuts. And I have seen firsthand how motorbikes have drastically changed Indigenous people’s lives.</p>
<p>I have spent the last 20 years working with the Chacobo – an Indigenous group from Bolivia – and have seen how for them, having a motorcycle is more than just a way to get around. It represents a sense of belonging and citizenship. </p>
<p>Owning a motorcycle is a symbol of how Indigenous people have adapted successfully to the changing world around them. The motorbike is considered such an icon of development and progress that in the Bolivian city of Riberalta, you can even find a monument of a motorbike. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521390/original/file-20230417-24-e4vvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Monument to the Motorbike, Riberalta, Bolivia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For many people, motorbikes are more than just a way to travel. In South America, especially in regions like the Bolivian Amazon, motorcycles have become a way of life. </p>
<h2>Bikes and beliefs</h2>
<p>In the past, the Indigenous people of these regions spent hours decorating body ornaments, bows and arrows. Now they spend most of their free time polishing, dismantling or reassembling their motorcycles. </p>
<p>Most of these bikes are cheap Chinese brands (Dayun, Wanxin, TianMa, Haojue), while their Japanese equivalents (Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki) remain a lusted-after status symbol. </p>
<p>At the same time, the arrival of the motorbike has led to these local landscapes being littered with mechanical “ruins” or “fossils”. Wheels, handlebars, fuel tanks and exhaust pipes all line the villages, gathering dust. </p>
<p>With proper spare parts not easily available, the inevitable repairs and upgrades must rely on “cannibalization” – using parts of old vehicles or whatever items are at hand to sort the issue. This obviously changes the way the lowland motorbikes look.</p>
<p>Bikes are named and considered to have a gender. Indigenous people also believe their motorbikes can be influenced by spiritual or supernatural forces that can cause them to behave in unusual or unexpected ways. </p>
<p>For instance, according to these <a href="https://theconversation.com/shamanism-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-fastest-growing-religion-in-england-and-wales-196438">beliefs</a>, a motorbike may suddenly accelerate or stop working altogether without any physical or mechanical explanation. It’s thought that such episodes happen sometimes with the intent of causing harm or misfortune to the owner of the bike. </p>
<h2>Passion v safety</h2>
<p>The motorcycle boom has also led to a rise in traffic accidents. Road accidents involving motorbikes are now a leading cause of death among the Chacobo – even more so since Chinese companies began paving the road that runs across their territory. </p>
<p>Things that many of us take for granted, such as insurance, speed limits, regular MOTs or services alongside helmets and protective clothing, do not figure here. So, a lot of the <a href="https://velocidades.sciencesconf.org/">road accidents</a> that happen in this region end up being fatal. </p>
<p>This has led to a number of communities forming road blockades and burning commercial trucks that have run over motorcyclists. Local authorities are starting to demand legal compensation for the families of the dead or injured. Dealing with road accidents has become an increasingly important topic for Indigenous leaders and communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521389/original/file-20230417-22-3xjf9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A burnt-out truck that ran over an Indigenous motorcyclist in Bolivia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, motorbikes have significantly transformed the relationship Indigenous people have with nature and society. They have made hunting, fishing and horticultural work much easier and more productive. And it’s not just the men: many Indigenous women have become motorbike riders and are using their bikes to challenge traditional gender roles.</p>
<p>While the increasing amount of motorbike accidents is concerning, it’s clear that this passion for motorcycles has become an integral part of Indigenous people’s lives that will likely be passed down through generations. Indeed, it’s quite common to see whole Indigenous families on bikes – including pets and tiny children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diego Villar has received funding for this article from Independent Social Research Foundation (Small Group Projects) and Horizon Europe programme (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship).</span></em></p>It’s quite common to see whole Indigenous families on bikes – including pets and tiny children.Diego Villar, Marie-Skłodowska Curie Fellow in Anthropology, Ca' Foscari University of VeniceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946842022-11-22T16:48:32Z2022-11-22T16:48:32ZA Republican bubble? How pollsters and pundits got the US midterms so wrong<p>During the month leading up to the US midterm elections, talk of a commanding Republican victory went from a “red wave” to a “red tsunami”. The Republicans were on for the win. The <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/">polls</a> and <a href="https://smarkets.com/politics">gambling markets</a>, or so-called “prediction markets”, were confident.</p>
<p>Only the red wave never broke – Democrats tightened their <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63613264">shaky grip on the Senate</a> and, while they lost control of the House, they did so by a much narrower margin than had been expected.</p>
<p>As part of my research on <a href="https://www.isrf.org/fellows-projects/anthony-pickles/">political betting and gambling markets</a>, I’ve identified a surge of interest in <a href="https://igamingbusiness.com/sports-betting/predictions-exchanges-and-the-rise-of-political-betting/">political gambling</a> since the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election. Underdog victories in these contests alerted many people in the UK and US – but also internationally – to the opportunity to win big by gambling on politics. And, along with the latest polls, what the betting markets are saying is increasingly considered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-midterms-why-gambling-markets-often-predict-elections-more-accurately-than-polls-194189#comment_288115">good predictor of future events</a>. But not this time.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the US midterm, I was betting (with my own money) against the Republican wave and for a close election – not out of any particular insight so much as caution. </p>
<p>When the results began to trickle in and it became clear the predicted Republican takeover was not happening, I had an unexpectedly successful few days of profits. Meanwhile, I frantically tried to figure out why the betting markets had predicted otherwise and what this failure meant.</p>
<h2>Why so wrong?</h2>
<p>To understand why the gambling markets got it so wrong, we first need to look at what evidence there was for a red wave.</p>
<p><strong>1. History says so</strong></p>
<p>First up there’s historical precedence. The party of a first-term US president <a href="https://www.newsy.com/stories/why-does-the-president-s-party-typically-lose-midterms/">almost always loses significant numbers</a> of seats in both houses of Congress in the midterms two years after they are elected. </p>
<p><strong>2. The polls tightened</strong></p>
<p>The polls also indicated that a red wave could happen. Democrats took the lead in the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1321123/us-midterm-election-polls/">polls</a> in mid-June, but the lead started narrowing in mid-September, with the Democrats and Republicans tied on 50 senate seats each on November 1.</p>
<p><strong>3. Predictions went red</strong></p>
<p>While some polls indicated <a href="https://igamingbusiness.com/sports-betting/predictions-exchanges-and-the-rise-of-political-betting/">a tight race</a>, organisations using more complex predictive models swung towards Republicans. By election day, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight</a>, the highest-profile of these organisations, was predicting the Republicans would take control of the Senate 59 times out of a hundred – and people listened. </p>
<p><strong>4. The odds were high</strong></p>
<p>This meant the markets were heavily favouring Republicans by late October. On the UK site <a href="https://www.betfair.com/">Betfair</a>, the world’s largest betting exchange, the likelihood of a republican majority shot above 50% on October 19 and peaked at 78% on election day – only to crash to 12% a day later as results began to become clear. On the foremost US provider, <a href="https://www.predictit.org/">PredictIt</a>, Republicans were trading at around 75 cents a share (a winning share returns US$1, a losing share 0 cents) before they, too, crashed in the face of election count data. </p>
<h2>Inflated victory</h2>
<p>Now looking back, it’s clear that a market bubble had inflated around a Republican victory. One of the maxims repeated in political betting circles is “bet the trend, not the poll” and the trend, as evidenced in the polling, started shifting sharply towards Republicans before then levelling off. Betters and modellers projected the original trend towards Republicans and ignored the levelling off. </p>
<p>There were some <a href="https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/11/07/ride-or-die-time-final-predictions-from-the-pros/">in the community</a> who were arguing against the crowd – that the odds had shifted too far towards the Republicans. But their voices were drowned out in a sea of optimism (or pessimism, depending on your politics). Indeed, Matthew Shaddick, head of politics at the UK betting exchange <a href="https://smarkets.com/">Smarkets</a>, spoke about it on the company podcast. He said that the last month before the election was <a href="https://shows.acast.com/smarkets-politics-podcast/episodes/pm-iii-revenge-of-the-rish">“one-way traffic”</a> with everyone wanting to back Republicans.</p>
<p>The sophistication and budgets of election campaigns in the US are also so extensive that considerable effort is made to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/01/biden-gap-senate-surveys-00064362">influence the narrative through polling</a>. According to my contacts, there was a flurry of Republican-leaning polls that were pushing their chances. And, as we know, polls influence people’s decisions when it comes to betting.</p>
<p>I’m also often asked whether political parties might bet on themselves to improve the perception of their campaign. While this is less likely to have any consequence with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/201169052_Manipulating_Political_Stock_Markets_A_Field_Experiment_and_a_Century_of_Observational_Data">larger events</a> such as the US elections, as with polling, at a smaller scale it can have an effect on a candidate’s implied probability of winning, which can then <a href="https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/betting-odds-line-up-khan-for-victory-in-london-mayoral-election-20210505">filter into the media</a>.</p>
<p>There is more research to be done, but this failure of prediction could not come at a worse time for US political gambling providers, styled as prediction markets. They have been trying to <a href="https://www.usbets.com/predictit-files-suit-against-cftc/">convince</a> a sceptical regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that political gambling markets add value to politics and financial traders because of their predictive potency. Indeed, gambling markets are usually considered <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-midterms-why-gambling-markets-often-predict-elections-more-accurately-than-polls-194189#comment_2881155">much more accurate</a> than polls, but it’s hard to see the midterms as anything other than a failure of prediction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pickles receives funding from the Independent Social Research Foundation. He bet on the outcome of the US midterms as a part of his anthropological fieldwork using the betting exchanges on Smarkets and Betfair,</span></em></p>What happened to the predicted red wave in the US midterms?Anthony Pickles, Lecturer in Social Anthropology, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941892022-11-08T18:08:22Z2022-11-08T18:08:22ZUS midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494121/original/file-20221108-18-97frpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Polls Vs betting on who will win control of Congress.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/set-realistic-circle-pins-badge-us-2192804145">Andychi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year’s US midterms are on a razor’s edge. </p>
<p>In the summer it appeared the US <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-overturned-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-supreme-court-abortion-decision-184692">supreme court’s ruling on abortion</a> and some legislative successes – most notably <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/build-back-better/">Build Back Better</a>, a post-COVID infrastructure and social policy package – benefited the Democrats. It was believed they would overturn the <a href="https://www.newsy.com/stories/why-does-the-president-s-party-typically-lose-midterms/">long-held pattern</a> of the president’s party losing seats two years after election. But as autumn set in, the tide turned, with <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63434894">economic pains</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does-the-data-say/">crime rates</a> thought to be fuelling a <a href="https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2022/10/20/us-midterm-elections-poll-predictions-suggest-republican-resurgence.html">Republican resurgence</a>.</p>
<p>With control of the House of Representatives now highly likely to pass to the Republicans, all eyes are on control of the US Senate. The chamber is currently controlled – just – by the Democrats and 35 of the 100 seats are in play.</p>
<p>The key races are in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, each with their own specific issues, including <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3pdwb/self-managed-abortion-pills-arizona">secret abortions</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-elections-2022/john-fetterman-stroke-health-age-b2219767.html">stroke recoveries</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/19/1129754080/herschel-walker-bought-1000-fake-badges-controversy">fake police badges</a>.</p>
<p>So, who will win? I don’t know. But there are two places to get relatively unspun data on what might happen: <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/">polls</a> and <a href="https://smarkets.com/politics">gambling markets</a> or so-called “prediction markets”. As an anthropologist, I have been looking at the rise in political gambling throughout 2022 to find out how speculating on political events shapes <a href="https://www.isrf.org/fellows-projects/anthony-pickles/">how politics is understood</a>.</p>
<h2>Election Polling</h2>
<p>Using the latest polling in the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/georgia-senate-polls-herschel-walker-vs-raphael-warnock-b2220321.html">US Senate race in Georgia</a> as an example, a big advantage of election polling is that it’s easy for the public to understand. Once the numbers are crunched they can be <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html">expressed as</a>: “Herschel Walker is on 48.8% while Raphael Warnock is on 47.4%”, which looks just the same as the vote count will look. In other words, Herschel Walker is in the lead and will probably win.</p>
<p>But polling itself is inexact and difficult to get right. Assuming polling organisations are not <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/upshot/polling-averages-midterm-election.html?unlocked_article_code=xRVMS4FOqm7QWmRolgLT7R5BUyhJneU2_KnKqQmOh4vFJYu40Qa9_jRSJw_2t48m7fi7V0eSdCjIC5_pDF7LNqU5UqlvE474onw6vy3L_NosEo0vMBRu7LoqHqaUg6xg9YR_7yfiZz57ol3eTVUou">manipulating their methods</a> to get a result that favours their preferred candidate, they will nevertheless be <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2378023118791080">playing</a> <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/">“whack-a-mole” with different biases</a>. </p>
<p>These can include <a href="https://methods.sagepub.com/reference/encyclopedia-of-survey-research-methods/n486.xml">how participants are selected</a> or how the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/12/1/99/1810859">questions are asked </a>. And compensating for one <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-019-09532-1">bias</a> can potentially cause another. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-biased-polls-skew-elections-experimental-evidence-says-yes-121651">Do biased polls skew elections? Experimental evidence says yes</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>The other issue is that polls can only ever measure a snapshot in time, and that snapshot is always in the past. In response to both these issues, informed audiences pay increasing attention to what’s known as “weighted polling averages”. These try to combine polls in a way that accounts for biases – such as compensating for how much <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls">Fox News polls</a> typically overestimate Republican candidates or giving less weight to polls with a bad track record. The more bullish forecasters run projection models many times and report who wins most often. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="One-armed bandit slot machine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494149/original/file-20221108-19-bvvy7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Do betting markets know best?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/onearmed-bandit-slot-machine-pop-art-1328094668">studiostoks/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>At the time of writing, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight</a>, the highest profile of these organisations, has several different versions of its polling model. One based solely on weighted polling has the Democrats winning the Senate 55 times out of 100. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/">“deluxe” model</a>, which incorporates indicators such as fundraising and experts’ ratings, has Republicans winning a majority in 54 out of 100 runs of their model. But less than two weeks ago, the deluxe prediction was the opposite: Democrats won 54 times out of 100. </p>
<h2>Political betting</h2>
<p>Political gambling, on the other hand, tells us something quite different. The odds simply tell you how much money you can expect to get – the rate of return – on different bets. In the UK, this rate has traditionally been set by gambling company employees called handicappers who have the job of making sure that bets are placed for both sides and that a profit for the companies is built in. </p>
<p>But the use of what’s known as betting exchanges has changed this somewhat. Betting exchanges are different to traditional betting sites in that they allow gamblers to bet against each other rather than a bookmaker. </p>
<p>Exchanges also allow players to bet against the odds of something happening. This is known as a lay bet or laying a bet, which simply means betting against an outcome. Most serious political gamblers bet with each other through the exchanges, where, for a fee, they can take either side of any bet, switching between being the bookie and the punter as and when it suits them. </p>
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<p>One thing about the political gambling markets is that they are highly reactive to news. For instance, the Republican candidate for US Senate in Pennsylvania, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/us/politics/dr-oz-muslim-religion.html">Mehmet Oz</a>, saw his odds shorten from 1.93 (52% likely to win) to 1.53 (65% likely) during his televised debate with Democrat <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/us/politics/fetterman-stroke-election.html">John Fetterman</a>. The latter visibly struggled to speak, clearly still affected by his recent stroke. </p>
<p>In this sense, markets react faster than the snappiest snap poll. The political gambling community itself would turn a pollster’s stomach. I have found it to be overwhelmingly made up of white, educated, males who are mathematically inclined and politically sophisticated (including a good number of politicians themselves). Yet there are quite a few <a href="http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/981">statistical analyses</a> that credit the markets collectively as more predicatively powerful than polls. </p>
<p>That said, betting market information expressed in probabilities – for example, Herschel Walker is given a 61% chance of winning and Raphael Warnock is given a 41% chance of winning – is much less intuitive to the public. This is because, unlike a poll, in betting markets a lead of 61% to 41% actually indicates a tight contest where either candidate could well win.</p>
<p>It’s also worth adding that the legal status of prediction markets and gambling on politics in the US is complicated <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/betting-on-elections-can-tell-us-a-lot-why-is-it-mostly-illegal">at the moment</a>. Many bets are placed but there’s a question mark over <a href="https://www.yogonet.com/international//news/2022/08/08/63741-us-political-betting-platform-predictit-sees-regulatory-authorization-revoked">the legality of political betting</a> as historically it was illegal in the US. </p>
<h2>Predictions and forecasting</h2>
<p>So, with all this in mind what can the polls and betting markets tell us about the results of the US mid-terms? On the British outlet <a href="https://smarkets.com/">Smarkets</a>, the Republicans gained the upper hand decisively on the 20th of October – 11 days before they did on <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">FiveThirtyEight</a>. </p>
<p>On US and cryptocurrency sites, such as <a href="https://www.predictit.org/#_=_">PredictIt</a> and <a href="https://polymarket.com/markets">Polymarket</a> which style themselves as <a href="https://www.predictit.org/insight">“prediction markets”</a>, the shift came earlier still. </p>
<p>Prices on Smarkets rate the Republicans as 65% likely to control the Senate. Punters are significantly more bullish on this than the predictions of FiveThirtyEight (45% on polls alone, 54% with other metrics) and most other polling aggregators.</p>
<p>Who is correct? We will soon see. I do have one prediction though, the more tumultuous and data-heavy our democratic politics becomes, the more influential the highly reactive odds from political gambling will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194189/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Pickles receives funding from the Independent Social Research Foundation. He has bet on the outcome of the US midterms as a part of his anthropological fieldwork using the betting exchanges on Smarkets and Betfair, </span></em></p>Who will win the US midterms, the polls, or the gambling markets?Anthony Pickles, Lecturer in Social Anthropology and International Development, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920702022-11-02T12:28:58Z2022-11-02T12:28:58ZLoss and damage: Who is responsible when climate change harms the world’s poorest countries?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492622/original/file-20221031-13-eywc63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C3976%2C2646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme flooding in Pakistan in 2022 affected 33 million people.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-use-a-raft-to-move-along-a-waterlogged-street-in-news-photo/1242590163"> Akram Shahid/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may be hearing the phrase “loss and damage” in the coming weeks as government leaders meet in Egypt for the 2022 U.N. Climate Change Conference.</p>
<p>It refers to the costs, both economic and physical, that developing countries are facing from climate change impacts. Many of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries have done little to cause climate change, yet they are experiencing extreme heat waves, floods and other climate-related disasters. They want wealthier nations – <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">historically the biggest sources</a> of greenhouse gas emissions – to pay for the harm. </p>
<p>A powerful example is Pakistan, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">extreme rainfall</a> on the heels of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02813-6">glacier-melting heat wave</a> flooded nearly one-third of the country in the summer of 2022.</p>
<p>The flooding turned Pakistan’s farm fields into miles-wide lakes that stranded communities for weeks. <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-monsoon-floods-2022-islamic-relief-pakistan-12-october-2022">More than 1,700 people died</a>, millions lost their homes and livelihoods, and more than 4 million acres of crops and orchards, as well as livestock, drowned or were damaged. This was followed by a <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON413">surge in malaria</a> cases as mosquitoes bred in the stagnant water.</p>
<p>Pakistan contributes only about 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. But greenhouse gases don’t stay within national borders – emissions anywhere affect the global climate. A warming climate intensifies rainfall, and studies suggest climate change may have <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-monsoon-rainfall-flooding-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-pakistan/">increased Pakistan’s rainfall intensity by as much as 50%</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man sits on a bench outside the door too his home, surrounded by floodwater up to his shins." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492878/original/file-20221101-26784-xmat9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Many of the millions of people affected by the 2022 flooding in Pakistan already lived in poverty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/abdul-rahim-is-photographed-outside-his-flooded-house-on-news-photo/587483798">Gideon Mendel For Action Aid/ In Pictures/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The question of payments for loss and damage has been a <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/loss-and-damage/">long-standing point of negotiation</a> at United Nations climate conferences, held nearly every year <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/history-of-the-convention#Climate-Change-in-context">since 1995</a>, but there has been little progress toward including a financial mechanism for loss and damage in international climate agreements.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://unclimatesummit.org/time-to-respond/">developing countries</a> are looking to this year’s conference, COP27, as a crucial moment for making progress on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop27-why-is-addressing-loss-and-damage-crucial-for-climate-justice/">establishing that formal mechanism</a>.</p>
<h2>Africa’s climate conference</h2>
<p>With Egypt hosting this year’s U.N. climate conference, it’s not surprising that loss and damage will take center stage.</p>
<p>Countries in Africa have some of the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2">lowest national greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and yet the continent is home to many of the world’s most <a href="https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/">climate-vulnerable countries</a>.</p>
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<p>To deal with climate change, these countries – many of them <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gross-domestic-product">among the world’s poorest</a> – will have to invest in adaptation measures, such as seawalls, <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture">climate-smart agriculture</a> and infrastructure that’s more resilient to high heat and extreme storms. The UN Environment Program’s Adaptation Gap Report, released Nov. 3, 2022, found that developing countries need <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022">five to 10 times more</a> international adaptation finance than wealthier countries are providing.</p>
<p>When climate disasters strike, countries also need more financial help to cover relief efforts, infrastructure repairs and recovery. This is loss and damage.</p>
<p>Egypt is emphasizing the need for wealthy countries to <a href="https://cop27.eg/#/">make more progress on providing financial support for both</a> adaptation and loss and damage. </p>
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<h2>Climate injustice and loss and damage</h2>
<p>The conversation on loss and damage is inherently about equity. It evokes the question: Why should countries that have done little to cause global warming be responsible for the damage resulting from the emissions of wealthy countries?</p>
<p>That also makes it contentious. Negotiators know that the idea of payments for loss and damage has the potential to lead to further discussions about financial compensation for historical injustices, such as slavery in the United States or colonial exploitation by European powers.</p>
<p>At COP26, held in 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland, negotiators made progress on some key issues, such as <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/cop26-climate-pledges-tracking-progress">stronger emissions targets and pledges to double adaptation finance</a> for developing countries. But COP26 was seen as a disappointment by advocates trying to establish a financial mechanism for wealthier nations to provide finance for loss and damage in developing countries.</p>
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<h2>What a formal mechanism might look like</h2>
<p>The lack of resolution at COP26, combined with Egypt’s commitment to focus on financing for adaptation and loss and damage, means the issue will be on the table this year.</p>
<p>The nonprofit <a href="https://www.c2es.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Loss-and-Damage-Issues-and-Options-for-cop27.pdf">Center for Climate and Energy Solutions</a> expects discussions to focus on institutional arrangements for the <a href="https://www.iied.org/interview-how-can-santiago-network-for-loss-damage-meet-technical-needs-communities-vulnerable">Santiago Network for Loss and Damage</a>, which focuses on providing technical assistance to help developing countries minimize loss and damage; and on fine-tuning the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Glasgow_Dialogue.pdf">Glasgow Dialogue</a>, a formal process developed in 2021 to bring countries together to discuss funding for loss and damage.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.v-20.org/">V20 group</a> of finance ministers, representing 58 countries highly vulnerable to climate change, and <a href="https://www.g7germany.de/g7-en/g7-summit/g7-members">the G-7</a> group of wealthy nations also <a href="https://www.v-20.org/our-voice/news/press-releases/v20-and-g7-agree-on-financial-protection-cooperation-to-formally-launch-global-shield-against-climate-risks-at-cop27">reached an agreement</a> in October 2022 on a financial mechanism called the <a href="https://www.bmz.de/en/issues/climate-change-and-development/global-shield-against-climate-risks">Global Shield Against Climate Risks</a>. The Global Shield is focused on providing risk insurance and rapid financial assistance to countries after disasters, but it’s unclear how it will fit into the international discussions. Some groups <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/07/18/germany-promotes-insurance-based-global-shield-for-climate-victims/">have raised concerns</a> that relying on insurance systems can overlook the poorest people and distract from the larger discussion of establishing a dedicated fund for loss and damage. </p>
<p>Two elements of developed countries’ reluctance to formalize a loss and damage mechanism involve how to determine which countries or communities are eligible for compensation and what the <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211025c-davis-shawoo-loss-and-damage-finance-pr-2110l.pdf">limitations</a> of such a mechanism would be.</p>
<p>What would a threshold for loss and damage eligibility look like? Limiting countries or communities from receiving compensation for loss and damage based on their current emissions or gross domestic product could become a problematic and complicated process. Most experts recommend <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211025c-davis-shawoo-loss-and-damage-finance-pr-2110l.pdf">determining eligibility based on climate vulnerability</a>, but this can also prove difficult.</p>
<h2>How will world leaders respond?</h2>
<p>Over a decade ago, developed countries committed to provide <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">US$100 billion per year</a> to fund adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. But they have been <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022">slow to meet</a> that commitment, and it does not cover the damages from the climate impacts the world is already seeing today. </p>
<p>Establishing a loss and damage mechanism is considered one avenue to provide recourse for global climate injustice. All eyes will be on Egypt Nov. 6-18, 2022, to see how world leaders respond.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated Nov. 3, 2022, with the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report findings.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bethany Tietjen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>That’s the big question at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, and it’s controversial.Bethany Tietjen, Research fellow in climate policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898352022-09-07T09:15:10Z2022-09-07T09:15:10ZDigital nomads have rejected the office and now want to replace the nation state. But there is a darker side to this quest for global freedom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483184/original/file-20220907-18-ap277n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C54%2C5907%2C3917&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.alamy.com/hand-of-man-use-smartphone-and-laptop-with-technology-of-globalization-connectivity-conceptual-image213531571.html?imageid=FA34637C-3EEA-447E-83C6-F1660031BDF5&p=177357&pn=1&searchId=8f490f8acdd30777ba030c7c63a84da9&searchtype=0">Vasin Leenanuruksa / Alamy</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>A ‘network state’ is ideologically aligned but geographically decentralised. The people are spread around the world in clusters of varying size, but their hearts are in one place.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In June 2022 Balaji Srinivasan, former chief technology officer of the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange, published an ebook entitled <a href="https://thenetworkstate.com/">The Network State: How To Start a New Country</a>. It is the latest in a flurry of utopian visions by self-styled digital visionaries, crypto believers and web 3.0 evangelists who are lining up to declare the death of the traditional concept of countries and nationhood. </p>
<p>In one case, a new “virtual” country is already in development. “The nation state is outdated – it’s based on 19th-century thinking, and we aim to upend all of that,” Lauren Razavi tells me over Zoom from a bustling co-working space.</p>
<p>Razavi is the executive director of <a href="https://plumia.org/about/">Plumia</a>, a self-proclaimed “moonshot mission” to build an internet country for digital nomads. Born in Britain to an Iranian immigrant, Razavi sees herself as untethered and borderless, and likens national citizenship and tax to a “subscription” that is very hard to cancel. </p>
<p>“We’re all enrolled into this automatic subscription based on the coincidence of our birthplace or our heritage, and that really doesn’t work in the 21st century.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman at a laptop in an internet cafe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482592/original/file-20220903-29445-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lauren Razavi, executive director of Plumia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photograph: Barbara Jovanovic</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Freedom for everyone?</h2>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/anthropology/people/research-students/dave-cook">anthropologist</a>, I have been chronicling the digital nomad lifestyle – and their <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0308275X221120172">tangled relationship with state institution</a>s – for the past seven years. Pre-pandemic, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/digital-nomads-what-its-really-like-to-work-while-travelling-the-world-99345">popular stereotype</a> was of a carefree millennial who had escaped the daily grind to travel the world without hindrance, working on a laptop in some far-flung beach cafe with their only limitation being the quality of the wifi. </p>
<p>As long ago as 2015, I was hearing recurring complaints from these nomads about the ideological and practical frictions that nation states pose – it just hadn’t organised itself into a movement yet.</p>
<p>For a while, COVID-19 appeared to put the brakes on the nomadic dream, as most were forced to head home to western countries and the safety net of healthcare systems. Yet now, the <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/9781003094937-10/global-remote-work-revolution-future-work-dave-cook">remote working revolution</a> triggered by the pandemic has given this borderless lifestyle “project” a <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-work-visas-will-shape-the-future-of-work-travel-and-citizenship-145078">new impetus</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Before COVID struck, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/12/09/how-the-coronavirus-outbreak-has-and-hasnt-changed-the-way-americans-work/">12% of workers in the US</a> worked remotely full time, and <a href="https://post.parliament.uk/the-impact-of-remote-and-flexible-working-arrangements/">5% in the UK</a>. But the pandemic quickly proved remote work was possible for many more people. Workplace norms toppled like dominos: the office, in-person meetings and the daily commute fell first. Countries such as Barbados, Estonia and Portugal started issuing <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-work-visas-will-shape-the-future-of-work-travel-and-citizenship-145078">remote work visas</a> to encourage geographically flexible employees to relocate to their territories. “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/11/03/small-towns-and-cities-are-offering-up-to-20000-for-remote-workers-to-relocate/">Zoom towns</a>” are another trend, with towns such as Augusta, Maine in the US offering financial sweeteners to attract remote workers.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-work-visas-will-shape-the-future-of-work-travel-and-citizenship-145078">Remote-work visas will shape the future of work, travel and citizenship</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Having consigned the office to the trash, it makes sense that the nation state is the <a href="https://time.com/6211405/internet-country-plumia-remote-work/">next institution that digital nomads want to recycle</a>. To Razavi, membership of a nation state “offers incredibly poor value … The aspects that are really stuck in the past include citizenship, passports and tax. Our vision is to upload the nation state to the cloud.”</p>
<p>The concept of <a href="https://plumia.org/foundations-for-a-country-on-the-internet/">creating an internet country</a> was dreamt up during a company hackathon. Plumia is owned and staffed by <a href="https://safetywing.com/">Safety Wing</a>, an HQ-less insurance company which sells travel and health cover to digital nomads and remote working teams (tagline: “Insurance for nomads by nomads”). Safety Wing, according to its homepage, is “here to remove the role of geographical borders as a barrier to equal opportunities and freedom for everyone”. </p>
<p>But the realities of life as a digital nomad, and the dream of shedding your nationality for a borderless, paperless version, are full of day-to-day complications, as I have discovered – particularly if you do not belong to the young, white and western stereotype that the media tends to perpetuate.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3vmtz1xPFSM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Trailer for an early DNX conference.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Becoming a digital nomad</h2>
<p>I first heard about digital nomads in 2015 while chatting to Thom*, a seasoned traveller in Koh Phangan. Thom was neither expat nor tourist, and rarely seemed to return home. I asked him how people survived while constantly travelling. He had a laundry list of problems, from hassles subletting his apartment in Hamburg to his bank stalking him for a permanent address, and the hell of navigating visa rules. </p>
<p>Later in the conversation, he paused and declared, “You’re talking about digital nomads – I can’t believe you’ve never heard of them!” Laughing, he explained, “It’s someone a bit like me but who thinks the bottom layer of <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-maslows-hierarchy-of-needs-4136760">Maslow’s hierarchy of needs</a> is fast wifi instead of shelter. There’s a digital nomad conference happening in Bangkok in a few months. Let’s go.”</p>
<p><strong>How digital nomads see themselves:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Work/mobility chart" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482979/original/file-20220906-14-hcnvv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-described digital nomads were asked to mark where they see themselves on the above work focus/mobility axes. Their ‘core zone’ is shown in red.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diagram: Dave Cook and Tony Simonovsky</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Two months later, I was walking up Rangnam Road in Bangkok on a humid morning, looking for the <a href="https://www.pinterest.co.uk/DNXGlobal/dnx-digital-nomad-conference/">DNX conference</a>. Just off the plane and struggling with jetlag, I visited a coffee shop and overheard two German men discussing the conference. Fabian, who was dressed in camo cargo shorts and a black T-shirt, told me he was giving the keynote speech. He planned to share his experiences of driving across Africa playing guitar for charity, and of setting up a borderless tech start-up while travelling through South America.</p>
<p>At the conference venue I found crowds of people checking-in using Eventbrite apps. Lanyards with the slogan “I CHOOSE FREEDOM” were handed out. At this stage, I didn’t question what kind of freedom.</p>
<p>Most attendees were casually dressed men from the global north in their 20s and 30s. Although most carried small backpacks, no one looked like a backpacker. The men were in shorts and navy or khaki polo shirts. The few women present wore neutral sundresses. No one would have looked out of place in a business meeting in an international hotel lobby.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Conference wristband" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482703/original/file-20220905-22-d98seb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">DNX conference wristband.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Cook</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Digital nomads vigorously differentiate themselves from tourists and backpackers. One nomad told me, “I’d be bored shitless if I hung around on the beach all day getting stoned.” Nevertheless, these two tribes often collide in locations like Ko Pha Ngan or Chiang Mai in Thailand.</p>
<p>Talks at the conference often repeated the word “freedom”. Freedom to live and work anywhere, freedom from the rat race, entrepreneurial freedom, freedom to take control of your life and destiny. Other well-worn themes included “life hacks” enabling nomadic businesses to function efficiently on the move, the role of co-working spaces, and inspirational travelogues.</p>
<p>In the conference introduction by DNX founders Marcus Meurer and Feli Hargarten (also known, respectively, as Sonic Blue and Yara Joy), a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOAIXwUZdU8">YouTube video</a> entitled The Rise of Lowsumerism was played. The video claimed that excessive consumerism was being replaced by a superior sharing economy which “prioritises access over ownership”. This is what Razavi now calls <a href="https://medium.com/curious/the-rise-of-subscription-living-21356d69a1dd">subscription living</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bOAIXwUZdU8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Despite the video’s critique of “mindless consumerism”, it used a visual style that could have been selling luxury apartments. It all sounded fun and expensive. The video ended with the phrase: “Earth is not a giant shopping centre.” The conference was hosted in a mall.</p>
<p>Some talks got into the gritty minutiae of global living in surprising detail. Natalie Sissons, whose personal brand is <a href="https://suitcaseentrepreneur.com/about/">The Suitcase Entrepreneur</a>, used her presenting slot to share her digital productivity strategies, projecting her yearly schedule on the vast conference screen. She explained how her digital calendar app, <a href="https://calendly.com/">Calendly</a>, automatically translated timezones, flattening national time differences into global, bookable and productive meeting slots and projects. She was also a frisbee champion and loved doing handstands.</p>
<p>Then came Fabian Dittrich’s keynote. He was billed as a travelling tech entrepreneur, walked on stage still dressed in shorts and a T-shirt, and was sincere and intense. He recounted how his school careers adviser told him he needed to “fit in like an adjusted citizen” – but that he “rejected the system and a well-paid job in London [because] it was a workstyle, not a lifestyle”. He linked this dissatisfaction with office life to his rejection of his national identity.</p>
<p>Both Dittrich and Sissons appeared to be living incarnations of the lifestyle extolled by Tim Ferriss in his seminal 2004 self-help book, <a href="https://fourhourworkweek.com/">The 4-Hour Work Week</a>. Their logic pathologised the office and the nation state – both were cast as threats to untethered freedom.</p>
<p>In the closing section of the conference, Dittrich turned his anger directly on the nation state. He clicked to a PowerPoint slide 25-feet wide which parodied the Ascent of Man. His visual depicted human evolution from an ape to a digitally liberated human taking flight, presenting digital nomadism as a future trajectory for humanity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Speaker on stage in front of presentation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482705/original/file-20220905-14-5b6pwo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fabian Dittrich’s keynote speech at the 2015 DNX conference.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Cook</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His next slide showed two globes: the first covered with national flags headed “What people think I am”; the second without flags titled “What I really am”. Dittrich explained that his personal identity had nothing to do with his nationality. His performance made me think of Diogenes’s proclamation: “I am a citizen of the world.” The audience erupted into applause.</p>
<p>After the main conference, there were after-parties and workshops. I found out that many delegates were new to the nomad scene. Everyone wanted the secret formula of a blissful life combining work and global travel.</p>
<p>When it was over, in my imagination, all the delegates jetted off to their tropical hammocks. I trudged back to the UK winter, my day job, and to my mother’s hospital bed which I had left four days earlier. I found her in the same bed, recovering from cancer surgery which had saved her life, provided by the UK’s National Health Service.</p>
<h2>Being a nomad can be taxing</h2>
<p>It is apt that the prototype virtual state of Plumia is owned by a travel insurance company. Both digital nomads and sceptics of this lifestyle agree that challenges to sustaining a nomadic existence are 90% practical. Visa rules, tax obligations and healthcare are common nomad pain points.</p>
<p>Healthcare is the obvious first hurdle. Nomads need insurance that covers them for things like scooter accidents and patches them up on the road, so they can make it back to a co-working space or their next destination. Historically, most standard travel insurance covers a maximum of 30 days, so for Safety Wing, longer-term healthcare and travel insurance for nomads is a gap in the market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482600/original/file-20220903-14-jjp2ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The realities of digital nomadism can feel very different from the stereotypical image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bird-view-remote-online-working-digital-1742840084">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tax planning doesn’t make for sexy blog posts – but it did teach me a lot about the struggles of becoming a digital nomad, and what it really means to be the member of a nation state. I met Ben in a Thai co-working space. He was fresh-faced and idealistic, but also stressed and strapped for cash.</p>
<p>Ben had left the UK as a backpacker, staying in Australia under the working holiday visa programme where he worked on a sheep farm in the outback. Bored with nothing to do in the evenings, he stumbled across a <a href="https://www.digitalnomadsoul.com/start-a-dropshipping-business/">digital nomad blog</a> promising a life of travel, work and freedom. When Ben left the farm to backpack with friends, his mind kept returning to that blog which said “earn money whilst travelling the world”. He told me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All my friends wanted to do was get drunk in the next hostel. They knew they’d run out of money and have to go home. I realised I could continue travelling whilst working, instead of going home broke and having to look for a job.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ben headed to a co-working space in Thailand and taught himself website design. But the Australian government was pursuing him for unpaid taxes because he had overstayed his visa while working. Unfortunately, one tax woe led to another.</p>
<p>Faced with the dilemma of paying the Australian government or risking not being able to visit his girlfriend in Sydney, he used his new design skills to earn some money. He had befriended the owners of a Thai guesthouse and told them he could create a cheap website for them. The owners “were delighted”, but the manager of the Thai co-working space found out and told Ben it was illegal for someone on a tourist visa to work directly with Thai clients. If the co-working space was found to be hosting illegal workers, they could be prosecuted and shut down.</p>
<p>To become successfully “free”, digital nomads must become experts in keeping ahead of state bureaucracies. Most learn the hard way when they run into trouble. Before the pandemic, Thailand seemed like the perfect digital nomad location due to its Instagram-worthy beaches, fast internet and low cost of living. Imagine Ferriss’s 4-Hour Work Week merged with Alex Garland’s The Beach, only with a different ending.</p>
<p>Yet visa rules and worker protections in Thailand are strict, if not always rigorously enforced. Around 2018, the Thai state became acutely aware and suspicious of digital nomads. In answer to the question “can digital nomads work in Thailand without a work permit?”, a <a href="https://www.thaiembassy.com/thailand/thailand-digital-nomad-visa-and-work-permit">Thai legal website</a> stated: “In order to work in the kingdom, a foreigner needs to: be on an appropriate visa, obtain a work permit, and pay taxes.” The website went on to question the very meaning of work:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What is work? A digital nomad working on his laptop in a co-working space, is that considered work? A businessman sitting in his hotel room preparing for a seminar? When does the Work Permit office consider this to be work? This is a hard question to answer with a straightforward yes or no.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Ben and other fledgling digital nomads, tax and workplace protections were the rug-pull that caused their digital nomad dream to topple. Many nomads give up at this stage. For others, however, the digital nomad dream can become a recurring nightmare.</p>
<h2>The roots of digital nomadism</h2>
<p>One key component of digital nomadism is the concept of “<a href="https://www.nomadichustle.com/what-is-geoarbitrage/">geoarbitrage</a>”, which is a fancy term for wielding a western wage in a lower-cost, developing country. Some folks find the idea unethical but for entrepreneurs having to wait tables while bootstrapping a business, it makes sense to live somewhere cheaper than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Fernando_Valley">the Valley</a>, London or New York.</p>
<p>Geoarbitrage was popularised by Ferriss in his book and to some, the book summarised everything that was right with globalisation: the idea that the entire world should operate as an open, free market. To others, it pointed to a nightmare.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M3gmC7WmB4Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>In the wake of Ferriss’s book and also <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/Digital+Nomad-p-9780471974994">Digital Nomad</a> by Japanese technologist Tsugio Makimoto – who is widely credited with coining the term – digital nomads gravitated to tropical locations with lower living costs. Thailand and Bali were early hotspots but digital nomads aren’t sentimental. If a better place offers the right combination of welcoming visas and low living costs, or catches the attention for some other reason – as El Salvador did in 2021 by becoming the first country to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57398274">classify Bitcoin legal currency</a> – digital nomads are likely to appear, with carry-on luggage.</p>
<p>To survive as a nomad requires skill, tenacity and the privilege of holding a “<a href="https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php">strong</a>” passport, a point that Razavi has <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/PlumiaCountry/status/1488895849002418184">highlighted on Plumia’s Twitter feed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A passport is no longer a physical document but a set of rights and inequalities programmed into a computer. To me, that means this is the moment where this has to change. In a world of remote work, this makes no sense whatsoever.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tourist visas are often short, so nomads travelling on them need to change location regularly, sometimes as frequently as every two weeks. Some do visa runs to the nearest border (to extend their visas) or leave and apply for longer-term visitor visas. But this means additional travel and disrupts <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40558-020-00172-4">work routines</a>. Established nomads often explain how they have learned from past mistakes. As they become more road savvy, they slow down their travel patterns, refine their tax and visa arrangements, and make sure they are not worrying about breaking local immigration laws.</p>
<p>Juggling work and travel is both a dream and a headache. A high percentage of nomads I’ve met abruptly disappear from the scene, and their social media posts about nomading cease. Yet that doesn’t stop the next generation of dreamers turning up in Bali and Chiang Mai. And no dream, perhaps, was more alluring than the practice of “dropshipping”. It’s also hugely controversial – even in nomad circles.</p>
<h2>The darker side of digital nomadism</h2>
<p>Between 2016 and 2018, “<a href="https://www.shopify.co.uk/blog/what-is-dropshipping">dropshipping</a>” was the most popular get-rich-quick scheme I came across in Chiang Mai. This online business model involves people marketing and selling products they may never have seen, produced in countries they may never go to, to customers they will never meet. The products are often <a href="https://smallbiztrends.com/2022/08/dropshipping-business-ideas.html">niche items</a> such as kitchen gadgets or pet accessories.</p>
<p>Typically, dropshippers promote their products on social media and sell them via Amazon, eBay, or by creating their own online stores using software such as Shopify. Dropshipping is catnip to aspiring digital nomads because it is borderless and offers the promise of “passive income”. As one nomad explained to me, “why wouldn’t you want to earn money while you sleep?”</p>
<p>But many committed digital nomads hate this darker side of digital nomadism. Both Razavi and Pieter Levels, creator of the website <a href="https://nomadlist.com/">nomadlist.com</a>, have declared that dropshipping is “bullshit”. Another British expat described it as “the snake oil that greased the wheels of a thousand start-ups in Chiang Mai”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482593/original/file-20220903-13382-9iwbby.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=257&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How dropshipping works.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/dropshipping-process-how-dropshipment-work-vector-1548306857">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Young nomads often confided to me that they were perfecting their dropshipping business model. Some showed me spreadsheets displaying more than US$5,000 a month of passive income. But I also learned more about the emotional and economic costs.</p>
<p>At one unofficial dropshipper meet-up in Chiang Mai in 2018, I was told that if you wanted to be really successful, you had to become expert at manipulating big e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and eBay. Some talked about trying to evade local health and safety laws when selling niche products like kitchen gadgets while tapping into a pool of global cheap labour.</p>
<p>Competing with other sellers who troll you with bad reviews was a dark art, I discovered. Two men confided that their Amazon seller accounts had been suspended after being accused of posting suspicious reviews. Several admitted they had got friends to review-bomb their competitors.</p>
<p>These dropshippers feared Amazon’s algorithms more than border and customs inspections. Manipulating its review system was particularly tricky because, according to Larry, an ex-marine who manufactured his own “top secret” product in China (dropshippers rarely share what their niche products are), “Amazon processes and algorithms seem to know everything.” </p>
<p>“They know if your cousin gives your product a five-star review,” Ted added. Everyone nodded vigorously.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482602/original/file-20220903-9501-9nmm55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Chiang Mai was a dropshipping hub in the late 2010s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/digital-nomads-freelance-working-on-job-655389331">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Every dropshipper selling on Amazon.com (its US domain) complained about <a href="https://oehha.ca.gov/proposition-65/proposition-65-list">Proposition 65</a>, a list of toxic chemicals regulated in California that are widely used in Chinese plastic manufacturing. Some had entire product categories (their whole “seller listing”) deleted in California. These battles with local laws and tech giants show how the lines between nation states and corporations can become blurry for digital nomads. Or as Ted put it: “Fuck the west coast. You’re stuck between health and safety and the tech giants.”</p>
<p>Amazon is very clear about <a href="https://sellercentral.amazon.co.uk/help/hub/reference/external/G201808410?locale=en-GB">its dropshipping policy</a>: “We do not allow a third party to fulfil orders from other retailers on a seller’s behalf, unless the Amazon seller of record is clearly identified on the packaging,” a spokesperson told me. “Our policies also prohibit reviews abuse.”</p>
<p>Pete, a dropshipping veteran using multiple platforms, told the Chiang Mai meet-up that he had more than US$10,000 worth of stock “at sea or in transit” and had built his own e-commerce store. He also hinted that he would turn a blind eye to the possibility of child labour. “I’m getting more involved with the manufacturing,” he half-whispered to the room. “I sent an agent to check how things were going, and I heard that kids were packing the orders.” Another dropshipper chipped in: “Well, it is China … what can you do?” Half the room shrugged.</p>
<p>Some dropshippers bragged to me about hacking into the global pool of cheap, educated virtual assistants (VAs) – often from the <a href="https://www.outsourceaccelerator.com/articles/5-reasons-why-you-should-hire-a-filipino-virtual-assistant/">Philippines</a> where English is widely spoken. Zena, who sold home decor to a “design-savvy clientele back in the US”, explained how “Instagram was her killer sales funnel”, but that she soon realised “I was killing myself between the order fulfilments and socials [social media posts]”. </p>
<p>So Zena found a VA living on the outskirts of Manila and outsourced everything to her. “[It took] a month to get her fully up to speed – she has an MBA, her English is great. The time investment was totally worth it; I get everything done better than I could do it myself.”</p>
<p>Zena would not divulge how much she paid her VA, in case someone tried to poach her. Two male dropshippers chipped in. “They all have MBAs, bro,” one laughed. The other added, “Some accept less than [US]$500 a month. I’ve heard as low as $250, but that’s too low even for me.”</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-countries-ranging-from-indonesia-to-mexico-aim-to-attract-digital-nomads-locals-say-not-so-fast-189283">As countries ranging from Indonesia to Mexico aim to attract digital nomads, locals say 'not so fast'</a>
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<p>Levels says dropshipping is a “terribly dark story”, pointing out that aspiring dropshippers can be victims too. He claimed on <a href="https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/830620053305335808">Twitter</a>: “What’s dire about dropshipping is that these people from poor areas in the US pay thousands of dollars for courses that don’t deliver.” </p>
<p>Fresh-faced nomads often told me they were excited to start online courses, but others told me the content didn’t teach them much. While it’s debatable whether these courses were <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dropship/comments/d093wc/is_all_dropshipping_a_scam/">deliberate scams</a>, many young nomads were disappointed to discover that dropshipping was a very difficult way to earn money.</p>
<p>For many, it became a brief fever dream before they moved on to more ethical or sustainable ways of earning while they travelled. The dropshipping scene in Chiang Mai started to dwindle before the pandemic hit. At the same time, as one nomad told me in 2020, “cryptocurrency has stolen the limelight.”</p>
<h2>‘A lonely, miserable existence’</h2>
<p>The digital nomad on the beach might have become a cliche, but what’s not to like about living and working in paradise? Quite a lot according to Andrew Keen, author of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/feb/01/internet-is-not-the-answer-review-andrew-keen">The Internet Is Not The Answer</a>. Keen is critical and dismissive of the digital nomad lifestyle – and when Razavi interviewed him for a Plumia livestream event, the conversation, in Razavi’s words, “got salty”.</p>
<p>When Razavi asked Keen about digital nomads and his “views on global mobility”, Keen replied: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m not in favour of tearing up your passport and being ‘anywhere’ … I’m quite critical of this new precariat, the new workforce existing on so-called sharing platforms like Uber and Lyft to make a living … I’m not sure most people want to be nomads. I think it’s a rather ugly, miserable, lonely existence. The problem is that technology is pushing us in that way.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Behind the inspirational blogs and stock images of hammocks, digital nomadism divides options, often angrily. Razavi believes mobility is a human right, while Keen believes politics needs places. This plays out in national politics, too. At the 2016 Conservative Party conference in the UK, the new prime minister, Theresa May, famously declared: “If you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere.” It was a battlecry inviting people to take sides.</p>
<p>In March 2020, COVID and its associated global lockdowns briefly seemed to challenge the idea of freely existing “beyond nations”. Yet now that remote working has been normalised, the digital nomad dream has been supercharged – and every week, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-countries-ranging-from-indonesia-to-mexico-aim-to-attract-digital-nomads-locals-say-not-so-fast-189283">new country or city</a> seems to launch a remote work or digital nomad visa scheme.</p>
<p>According to Razavi, Plumia “are talking to a number of countries but that’s confidential … We are speaking to emerging economies.” She does name the government of Montenegro, however: “That one’s quite public because it’s on <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/PlumiaCountry/status/1536282012570501120">social media</a>. I see there being opportunity there.”</p>
<p>Estonia was the first country to pioneer a digital nomad visa. Having only gained independence in 1991, it has positioned itself as a digital society where 99% of government services can be accessed online. According to Estonian entrepreneur Karoli Hindricks, founder of <a href="https://jobbatical.com/about">Jobbatical</a>, a job-finding service for remote workers: “Where you were born is like a statistical error.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1488895276010016770"}"></div></p>
<p>The idea of creating a new nation by hacking and reassembling old ideas is nothing new, of course. The <a href="http://www.sealandgov.org/">Principality of Sealand</a>, located on a concrete platform in the North Sea, tried to <a href="https://sealandgov.org/50-years-of-independence/">claim sovereignty in 1967</a> with mixed success. Some digital nomads obsessively research maritime law, others go on digital nomads cruises. One nomad confided to me that they wanted to buy an island in Brazil.</p>
<p>And while the idea of an internet country without any territory, or future plans to claim any, is a radical concept for most, history teaches us that ideas, given the right tailwinds, can morph into reality.</p>
<p>In 1996, for example, John Perry Barlow published <a href="https://www.eff.org/cyberspace-independence">A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace</a>, in which he wrote the following missive to “outdated” governments: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Within four years the dotcom bubble grew exponentially and then burst – proving both its evangelists and critics right.</p>
<h2>A new religion?</h2>
<p>I discussed where digital nomadism may be going with the documentary film director Lena Leonhardt, who like me has spent years chronicling the digital nomad lifestyle. Her film <a href="https://vimeo.com/ondemand/roamersfollowyourlikes">Roamers - Follow Your Likes</a> tells four astonishing stories of nomads combining travel, work and chronicling their adventures on social media.</p>
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<p>The film’s main character is Nuseir Yassin – or <a href="https://nasdaily.com/#history">Nas Daily</a> as he is known to his followers, because he made a one-minute film everyday for 1,000 days while travelling. At the start of the movie he is seen on a stage, urging his audience not to waste their lives: “I worked as a software engineer for PayPal but I hated my job and I hated my life.”</p>
<p>Yassin wears a T-shirt with an infographic showing his life as 33% used-up. “I had this revelation,” he explains. “I am one-third dead with my life.” The rest of the film documents how he and other nomads turned their ordinary lives into something “fricking fantastic”.</p>
<p>Leonhardt thinks the digital nomad lifestyle may have spiritual or religious qualities: “Many people feel ‘I only have this life and a very short time, so I have to make sure this life is worth something’.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man holding a mobile phone outdoors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482594/original/file-20220903-8710-9cvsrx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nuseir Yassin, the main character in the film Roamers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photograph: Lena Leonhardt, The Royal Film Company</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet there’s no doubt the digital nomad lifestyle is much harder if you don’t travel with a “strong” passport that allows visa-free travel. If you are an African woman, for example, nomadic travel can be difficult and hostile.</p>
<p>Agnes Nyamwange, who also features in the film, has a Kenyan passport. Before the pandemic, she was based in the US and “nomaded” in South America from there. Nyamwange explained that holding a Kenyan passport made visas more expensive, as visa-free travel is much less available to holders of many African passports. </p>
<p>Since the pandemic, travelling to the US or Europe has become almost impossible for her. “I wanted to go to Europe when they opened up, but the embassies here said it was closed for Africans. Recently I just had the US Embassy telling me they don’t have any appointments available until 2024.”</p>
<p>In the film, Nyamwange memorably proclaims: “We are a generation of people who believe in superheroes.” She talks about the healing power of travel. But when I caught up with her earlier this year, she revealed the underbelly of nomadism to me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s a cultish type thing. It’s not sustainable. It’s good to travel from place to place to place to place, but you kind of have to have a sustainable lifestyle for it to be healthy … 15% of it was real, the other 85% is complete junk.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nyamwange added that it is all about “selling the dream”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Once you get into the digital nomad lifestyle, you start understanding Instagram, Snapchat and all these social media systems very well. But most people who portray and tell those stories don’t really live the lives that they’re selling.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman in the back seat of a taxi" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482595/original/file-20220903-20-8en214.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Agnes Nyamwange: ‘85% of this lifestyle is complete junk.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photograph: Lena Leonhardt, The Royal Film Company</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite all the barriers, Nyamwange is still drawn to what she sees as the therapeutic aspects of work and travel. For now though, she travels locally in Africa, because travelling further “is such a headache”.</p>
<p>Digital nomadism may offer a hard road, but it is a spiritual path many want to take. And believers like Razavi, Srinivasan and legions of other digital nomads will continue to seek alternatives to poor-value, inefficient nation states in their quest for a geographically untethered version of freedom.</p>
<p>Yet for the moment at least, this type of freedom is a privilege which largely depends on your place of birth, long-term place of residence, and economic circumstances. Or put another way, your given nationality.</p>
<p><em>*Research participant names have been changed to protect their anonymity.</em></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/social-media-and-society-125586" target="_blank"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479539/original/file-20220817-20-g5jxhm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=144&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As an anthropologist, I have chronicled the digital nomad lifestyle for the past seven years. The reality is far less glamorous than you might imagineDave Cook, PhD Candidate in Anthropology, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881272022-08-03T18:06:22Z2022-08-03T18:06:22ZNancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit sparked international tension, but isn’t likely to shake up her popularity with Chinese American voters at home in San Francisco<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477461/original/file-20220803-14-r0xjbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her delegation leave Taipei on August 3, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-and-her-5member-congress-delegation-depart-picture-id1242283734?s=2048x2048">Taiwanese Foreign Ministry/Handout/Andalou Agency via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-puts-the-white-house-in-delicate-straits-of-diplomacy-with-china-188116">visit to Taipei</a>, Taiwan, prompted warnings and threats from the Chinese government, but it is unlikely to upset her Taiwanese American and Chinese American constituents in San Francisco.</em></p>
<p><em>Pelosi left Taiwan on Aug. 3, 2022, after a whirlwind 24-hour trip, during which she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/02/world/pelosi-taiwan#pelosi-taiwan">met with lawmakers</a> and Tsai Ing-wen, president of Taiwan. While Pelosi defended her trip <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/8222-3">by writing that</a> it shows the United States’ “commitment to democracy,” China responded with <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/pelosi-departs-taiwan-as-furious-china-holds-military-drills.html">military drills</a> and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220803-how-is-china-punishing-taiwan-for-the-pelosi-visit">threats of future punishment</a> for the U.S. and Taiwan.</em></p>
<p><em>Taiwan, an island off the coast of China, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139">considers itself</a> an independent country – while China maintains that it is a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-is-part-china-beijing-tells-us-2022-04-20/">breakaway province</a> it wants to again officially oversee.</em></p>
<p><em>Some experts called Pelosi’s trip reckless, threatening U.S.-China relations – but she won’t necessarily need to answer to <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/elections/article/SF-neighborhoods-where-Pelosi-got-least-votes-17226501.php">her voting base</a> in San Francisco, where there are 187,000 Chinese and Taiwanese Americans. Asian American studies scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=U2OFos4AAAAJ&hl=en">Jonathan H.X. Lee</a> in San Francisco explains why many voters in this community are not intensely invested in the escalating political tensions in the South China region. Here are four key points to keep in mind.</em></p>
<h2>This is unlikely to turn voters away from Pelosi</h2>
<p>For many Chinese Americans it is just not an issue that’s really on their radar. <a href="https://bancroft.berkeley.edu/collections/chinese-immigration-to-the-united-states-1884-1944/timeline.html">Most are</a> second- and third-generation Chinese Americans, and maybe sometimes even fourth-generation. They don’t have a lot of deep connections or nationalist kind of connections to mainland China. </p>
<p>If you were to ask a group of Chinese American college students about Taiwan, the majority would probably reflect the general kind of understanding that the general American public would have, which is not very much. They don’t know the history of Taiwan <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-relations-between-china-and-taiwan-are-so-tense">breaking off from China</a> in 1949. So the reason this doesn’t register with Chinese American voters in San Francisco is that this geopolitical issue is just not on their list of major issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wear masks and hats and appear to protest in the streets, holding signs that say stop Asian hate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477463/original/file-20220803-11-gxlkvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators listen to speakers during a march protesting Asian hate crimes and actions in San Francisco in March 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/william-guo-left-francis-kwok-henry-lei-right-all-of-alameda-and-a-picture-id1309485284?s=2048x2048">Ray Chavez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other priorities for voters</h2>
<p>I know that the leadership in Taiwan and people in Taiwan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/03/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-reaction/">are loving this visit</a> by Pelosi. So in terms of her approval with Taiwanese American voters, this will do a lot, because it really reaffirms the <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/05/believe-biden-when-he-says-america-will-defend-taiwan/">United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s sovereignty</a>, which Taiwanese Americans care about.</p>
<p>But currently, the <a href="https://apiavote.org/policy-and-research/asian-american-voter-survey/">major political issue</a> on many Chinese Americans’ and Taiwanese Americans’ minds would be <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/anti-asian-hate-crimes-increased-339-percent-nationwide-last-year-repo-rcna14282">anti-Chinese and anti-Asian hate</a> that has occurred since the start of this global pandemic – fanned by former president Donald Trump, who racialized the pandemic by using terms like “<a href="https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/03/420081/trumps-chinese-virus-tweet-linked-rise-anti-asian-hashtags-twitter">China virus</a>,” the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-53173436">kung flu</a>” and so on. Inflation and economic issues are also a serious concern. </p>
<h2>Chinese Americans aren’t a homogeneous voting bloc</h2>
<p>Chinese American is an umbrella category that at times has its function. So in my research and in my discussions with Taiwanese foreign students, when they come to the U.S. they find themselves sometimes coming to the conclusion that it’s easier for them to just say, “I’m Chinese,” because they speak Mandarin. If they say they’re Taiwanese, they would be required to then explain. </p>
<p>Something that I hear them say quite often is, “I’m from Taiwan.” And then the person, not knowing anything about Taiwan versus China, says, “Oh, I love Thai food” – meaning food from Thailand, a totally different country. There’s that level of unawareness.</p>
<p>The Taiwanese American identity is a very unique identity within the Chinese American community. It <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/taiwanese-us-insist-identity-not-political-choice-must-census-option-rcna2225">says very clearly</a> that these people inherently support Taiwan’s geopolitical sovereignty. It is, in essence, a very nationalistic identity, not just a cultural one. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=pcLQCgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=info:iKhXum4cN3IJ:scholar.google.com&ots=Y5fzZ-m7mA&sig=tU2dNgTdHNKJRPKqqr21vGsNLx0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Chinese Americans are less nationalistic</a>, because we’re not identifying with mainland China. Rather, we are identifying as members of a community that is linked to Chinese heritage, so it becomes more cultural, more linguistic.</p>
<p>Second- and third-generation Chinese Americans, especially, have lost some of the skills or don’t have some of the skills that help maintain a very strong cultural link, such as <a href="https://dailynorthwestern.com/2018/10/22/opinion/the-spectrum-im-still-chinese-even-if-i-cant-speak-the-language/">not speaking Mandarin or Cantonese</a>, or many of the other dialects of China. </p>
<p>And if anything, Chinese Americans are critics of China, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2022/country-chapters/china-and-tibet">in terms of</a> human rights, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/chinas-tibet-policy-the-aftermath-last-springs-unrest">Tibet and</a> child labor issues. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman in a beige pantsuit and blue face mask stands next to a middle-aged Asian woman also wearing a pantsuit. Both wave their hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477498/original/file-20220803-19-jcyz9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi poses with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Aug. 3, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-nancy-pelosi-left-poses-picture-id1412590000?s=2048x2048">Handout/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The overall political effect</h2>
<p>Taking a step back and looking at the history of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china/">U.S. officials going</a> to Taiwan reveals that <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3584189-gingrich-china-threats-over-pelosi-taiwan-visit-a-bluff/">nothing has really</a> materialized from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-the-us-china-fight-does-china-really-threaten-american-power-abroad-148672">threats from China</a>. In terms of retaliation, there has always been very strong, public kind of speech about how they disapprove, and maybe some strong threats. But nothing came of those threats, and relations quickly normalized. And I think that’s going to be the case here, too.</p>
<p>I think the question of whether or not it will affect her <a href="https://pelosi.house.gov/about/our-district">constituents in San Francisco</a> is a very interesting question. And I think it’s exciting, because it reveals the diversity in terms of understanding Chinese Americans versus Taiwanese Americans. </p>
<p>The majority of Chinese Americans and Taiwanese Americans vote Democratic, so if Pelosi went or didn’t go, I don’t think it’s going have a huge effect. Because they’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/asian-americans-political-preferences-have-flipped-from-red-to-blue-145577">going to still vote blue</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188127/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan H. X. Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Chinese American voters are not a homogeneous group, many people who have ancestral ties to the region are unlikely to question their support for Nancy Pelosi just because of her Taiwan trip.Jonathan H. X. Lee, Professor of Asian American Studies, San Francisco State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1629662021-06-24T14:04:32Z2021-06-24T14:04:32ZNorth Korea food shortage: Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 policy could lead to mass starvation<p>North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has stated publicly that the country is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkoreas-kim-says-food-situation-tense-due-pandemic-typhoons-2021-06-15/">facing a food shortage</a>, a rare admission for the country’s leader, who blamed the pandemic and a recent typhoon. </p>
<p>Last year, speaking at an anniversary event of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Kim urged his people to “remain firm in the face of ‘tremendous challenges’ <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/10/north-korea-military-parade-marks-ruling-partys-75th-anniversary">posed by the pandemic</a>”. One such challenge Kim has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56685356">warned</a> of is the potential for a famine echoing the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/arduous-march-north-korea-famine">arduous march</a>” of the late 1990s, when the country faced a period of mass starvation that reportedly killed millions.</p>
<p>Kim’s response to COVID-19 has made North Korea even more isolated, leading to food shortages that are likely to impact millions. His slimmer look may also indicate Kim’s own lack of access to the food he used to have.</p>
<p>Is North Korea on its way toward another arduous march?</p>
<h2>A country isolated</h2>
<p>North Korea was one of the first countries to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak by closing its borders in January 2020. North Korea still claims <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53274152">zero positive COVID-19</a> cases, which no one can really confirm.</p>
<p>There have been signs of <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/kim-jong-un-faces-bleak-north-korean-economy%E2%80%94just-joe-biden-taking-over-172646">a devastating economic situation</a> in North Korea associated with the closed border, which entirely blocked existing illegal trades. Due to existing sanctions, there were not many legitimate trade activities in North Korea, apart from with China, but <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/smuggle-04222021182353.html">smuggling</a> has sustained supply and demand chains in general. </p>
<p>At the moment, North Korea is facing its toughest international sanctions yet, imposed in 2017 over its sixth nuclear test. The first such sanctions were put in place by the UN in 2006 over North Korea’s ballistic missile tests, and were expanded when the country conducted its first nuclear test that same year.</p>
<p>It is believed that the COVID-19 border closure has affected the North Korean economy even more than the sanctions, resulting in a more than <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/north-korea-s-trade-hit-more-by-covid-than-sanctions-kita-says">50% decrease</a> in trade with China compared to 2018.</p>
<p>The border closure has resulted in a lack of access to agricultural materials such as fertiliser and machinery, making it hard for North Koreans to have a sufficient <a href="https://www.dailynk.com/english/there-are-signs-north-korea-running-serious-difficulties-corn-harvest/">grain harvest</a>. Additionally, food imports and humanitarian aid are not being allowed due to the lockdown.</p>
<h2>Vaccination troubles</h2>
<p>During the initial arduous march, North Korea received a massive amount of food aid from the international community. It is a reasonable assumption that it is in need of more aid this time. But despite calls from the international community to provide <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2021/04/aid-groups-fret-over-struggling-north-korea-programs-and-covid-19-red-tape/">humanitarian aid</a> to North Korea, Kim’s regime has not allowed them into the country. </p>
<p>When Kim Jong-un became leader, he promised his people that they “<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/another-%E2%80%98arduous-march%E2%80%99-would-be-major-failure-kim-jong-un-183129">would never have to tighten their belt again</a>”. Now, he has decided to announce another arduous march rather than engage with the international community, risking a hit to his credibility. </p>
<p>There seem to be two main reasons why North Korea is hesitant to reopen its borders while people suffer from serious lack of food nationwide.</p>
<p>First, there is a huge risk of a COVID-19 outbreak with current measures. The country lacks capacity to deal with the pandemic, so massive and effective vaccination will be the only solution for North Korea to control the spread of the virus in the country. North Korea was initially approved to receive <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-northkore-idUSKBN2A40PH">nearly 2 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines</a> from Covax, the global vaccination distribution programme. However, this number has been reduced to 1.7 million which covers <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2021/04/covid-19-vaccine-delivery-to-north-korea-faces-delays-amid-supply-shortages/">only about 3.3% of its entire population</a>. </p>
<p>On top of this, delivery has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/skorea-says-vaccine-shipment-nkorea-covax-delayed-again-2021-06-01/">delayed</a> as North Korea did not participate in the required consultation process. The international community seems to be ready to provide <a href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210615000300325?section=nk/nk">more vaccines</a> once Kim agrees to cooperate on vaccine supply. </p>
<h2>Jangmadang and cultural influx</h2>
<p>The second reason why Kim is willing to risk his credibility over accepting international aid is his fear of continuous information influx.</p>
<p>During the first arduous march, North Korean political leaders observed humanitarian workers sharing external information with local people, which was then prohibited by authorities. However, this was not a significant problem for leadership as ordinary North Koreans did not have access to the outside world, and were effectively brainwashed by state propaganda. </p>
<p>This time, North Koreans have more access than ever to the outside world. They have wider use of mobile phones, and USBs and SD cards containing K-Pop and South Korean films and dramas have been smuggled into the daily life of North Koreans through <em>jangmadang</em> (grey markets – literally, “outdoor market” in Korean). Higher levels of information influx combined with less ideology education has caused people to rethink their regime, and domestic discontent has developed as a result.</p>
<p><em>Jangmadang</em> became a core part of North Koreans’ survival system when the government was unable to provide rations and necessities during the 1990s. For the <em>jangmadang</em> generation, daily life survival was more important than regime survival. They could not attend school, and thus were not subject to intense state ideology education. <em>Jangmadang</em> and younger generations now tend to place more value on money and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-media-idUSKBN29P0C4">South Korean cultural influence</a> than Jucheism – North Korean state ideology – weakening their loyalty to the regime. </p>
<p>Fortunately for Kim, this phenomenon has slowed due to the current border closure. But once the border is reopened, there will be a surge of information into the country again. Thus, Kim would want to ensure the revival of strong state ideology before he reopens doors to the international community. He has conducted <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57225936">strong punishments</a> against those who possess and/or spread foreign media among people, and emphasised the need for enhanced ideological education. In April, Kim sent <a href="https://keia.org/the-peninsula/north-koreas-generation-z-the-achilles-heel-of-regime-stability">a letter</a> to the Youth League aiming to “root out anti-socialist and non-socialist practices, and improve ideological education”. </p>
<p>Kim’s isolation may have successfully blocked the spread of COVID-19 and external cultural influence among the population, but it has also blocked the channels to basic necessity. Kim will need to reopen the borders in order to avert the second arduous march, but it will be hard for him to find immediate alternatives to mitigate the risks to his regime. </p>
<p>There are signs of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-north-korea-poised-resume-freight-rail-links-trade-revives-2021-04-23/">gradual resumption</a> of trade between North Korea and China, but it has been limited. As Kim has announced that North Korea needs to prepare for “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/18/kim-jong-un-says-north-korea-preparing-for-dialogue-and-confrontation-with-us">both dialogue and confrontation</a>” with the US, the international community could take this as an opportunity to approach North Korea again, but with more productive and practical solutions for its isolated people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sojin Lim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kim Jong-un’s border closures appear to have blocked the spread of COVID-19 in North Korea, but they have also caused a food crisis threatening the survival of his people.Sojin Lim, Reader in Asia Pacific Studies (with special reference to Korea), MA North Korean Studies Course Leader, Co-Director of the International Institute of Korean Studies, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1623822021-06-09T13:53:24Z2021-06-09T13:53:24ZBitcoin: El Salvador’s grand experiment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405364/original/file-20210609-14804-rstzx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=69%2C217%2C5067%2C2894&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">El Salvador is likely to become the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/golden-coins-bitcoin-symbol-on-mainboard-1698227716">Momentum Fotograh/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, bitcoin has a mixed reputation. Owning and using the cryptocurrency is legal in a majority of nations, tolerated in many others, and outlawed by a relatively small number. </p>
<p>El Salvador has just become the first nation to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/el-salvador-proposes-law-to-make-bitcoin-legal-tender.html?">formally adopt</a> the cryptocurrency as legal tender, and a handful of other Latin American leaders have indicated that they would <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/bitcoin/politicians-from-these-countries-have-called-for-bitcoin-adoption">follow suit</a>. This marks a sharp change in bitcoin’s reputation on the global stage.</p>
<p>Backed by a public ledger called “<a href="https://www.euromoney.com/learning/blockchain-explained/what-is-blockchain">the blockchain</a>”, holders of bitcoin enjoy a fast and secure way to make payments or receive funds. And El Salvador clearly has a need to receive funds fast. Like many other nations, El Salvador’s economy is heavily dependent upon “remittances”, or funds sent home by citizens working abroad. Remittances totalled <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=SV">over 20% of GDP in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>Currently, remittances are delivered by Western Union or other money transfer services which are necessarily centralised and highly regulated. Sending funds can be complicated, involving an in-person visit to an agent’s office and proof of identity for both the sender and receiver. Although there are over 500 Western Union offices across El Salvador, those living in rural areas of the nation are particularly inconvenienced.</p>
<p>By contrast, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin allow anyone with a mobile phone to send or receive funds, regardless of location. A software app known as a “wallet” manages the cryptocurrency as needed. Such wallets are safeguarded on phones and protected by passwords or biometric mechanisms like fingerprints.</p>
<p>Recipients of bitcoin realise their funds by connecting to the internet. Once bitcoin has been received, there are multiple ways to exchange cryptocurrency for cash.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration of several hands holding up smartphones, with images of bitcoins being transferred between them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405199/original/file-20210608-21-aiy2s5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">El Salvador could be the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Coker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Embracing cryptocurrency as legal tender</h2>
<p>Now, El Salvador is taking the relatively easy and rapid transfer of bitcoin a step further, by accepting it as legal tender. The cryptocurrency could be spent directly on goods and services, just as the US dollar is in El Salvador. Other Latin American politicians have since <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/bitcoin/politicians-from-these-countries-have-called-for-bitcoin-adoption">called for</a> the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. </p>
<p>In El Salvador, <a href="https://www.acuant.com/blog/the-worlds-unbanked-population/">some 70% of citizens</a> are unbanked, meaning they lack access to a basic bank account. We know the unbanked face tremendous challenges in both <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/banking/unbanked-consumer-study/">saving and accumulating wealth</a>.</p>
<p>Those without a bank account are discouraged from saving for at least two reasons. First, holding cash is risky. A bitcoin wallet, however, protects savings by means of a password or PIN, naturally facilitating the regular saving of small amounts over time. Second, savers are rewarded by receiving interest on their money. Without this incentive there is little upside to saving. But there are <a href="https://defirate.com/btc/">firms</a> which allow bitcoin holders to receive interest on their cryptocurrency (albeit your funds are not protected if they cease trading). So holders of bitcoin can enjoy the services of a bank, without the need to open a bank account. A desire to help the unbanked is likely mirrored across Latin America, but the ability of bitcoin to rapidly send and receive payments is likely also a draw.</p>
<h2>The downsides</h2>
<p>Adopting bitcoin as legal tender is not without its downsides. The cryptocurrency is notoriously volatile; indeed, at the time of this writing it has declined <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-prices-tumble-50-from-peak-and-mark-cuban-calls-the-crypto-crash-the-great-unwind-11621790964">roughly 50%</a> from the April 2021 high of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=">nearly US$65,000</a>. I hold bitcoin, and view this drop in price as part of the asset class’s risk (hopefully there will be an attendant reward). But I don’t have all of my savings in bitcoin either. If I did, my reaction would be very different.</p>
<p>Also concerning is the prevalence of what are called “whales”, or those controlling wallets with large amounts of bitcoin. There are roughly <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/wallets-with-over-1000-bitcoin-have-hit-record-number-chainalysis">2,000 wallets</a> containing more than 1,000 bitcoins each. It’s not known who controls these wallets, but if several whales decided to sell their bitcoin, there could be tremendous drops in price.</p>
<p>Another issue El Salvadorians and other adopters will face is the inherent deflationary design of bitcoin. The supply of traditional currencies such as the US dollar can be changed as economic conditions warrant. America’s central bankers manage the supply of money to stimulate, or slow, the economy as needed. And historically the supply of US dollars has increased to reflect population growth.</p>
<p>By contrast, the total supply of bitcoin is <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/tech/what-happens-bitcoin-after-21-million-mined/">fixed at 21 million coins</a>. At the time of this writing only some 2.2 million bitcoins are left to be mined. Prices, as expressed in bitcoin, will inevitably fall over time.</p>
<p>Also, many analysts suggest the price of bitcoin will rise over time, as both acceptance and demand increase amid decreasing supply. If the more bullish price forecasts for bitcoin are true, those Salvadorians lucky enough to acquire and hold bitcoin early may become wealthy, perhaps fabulously wealthy. This has already happened with those lucky enough to have <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp">purchased bitcoin before 2010</a>, when it cost less than one dollar. </p>
<p>Finally, there are mounting concerns about bitcoin’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1aecb2db-8f61-427c-a413-3b929291c8ac">environmental impact</a> to consider. While its not clear how this issue will be resolved, it should be evaluated as part of the decision to render bitcoin legal tender.</p>
<p>Considering these risks, one can only wonder why El Salvador hasn’t considered the adoption of what is called <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp">a “stablecoin”</a>. By design, stablecoins such as <a href="https://tether.to/">Tether</a> are fixed at the price of one US dollar. Stablecoins offer the security and rapid transmission speed of bitcoin, but without the volatility, or lottery-like payoff to early adopters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:d.coker@westminster.ac.uk">d.coker@westminster.ac.uk</a>
is a long term holder of Bitcoin, who has no plans to sell</span></em></p>El Salvador has become the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. This is a noble idea, but unworkable in the long term.David Coker, Senior Lecturer - Finance and Fintech, University of WestminsterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621952021-06-07T15:30:52Z2021-06-07T15:30:52ZG7 is more united but not effective enough to tackle the world’s biggest problems<p>When the UK hosts the G7 summit in Cornwall between June 10 and 12, it will be the first intergovernmental meeting of the world’s seven wealthiest democracies since before COVID. Playing host for the seventh time, the UK is in a slightly stronger position than in 2019, due to the success of its vaccine rollout. </p>
<p>Amid the pandemic and worsening threats from climate change, inequality and dictators, the 2021 summit is a diplomatic opportunity for the G7 to display a united front. The seven countries, which <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/gdp_share/G7/">represent almost 40%</a> of global GDP – are certainly more united than two years ago. </p>
<p>The last G7 meeting in Biarritz, France in 2019 was overshadowed by questions of unity on the environment and politics, with <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/prime-minister-boris-johnson-loses-brexit-bite-in-biarritz-g7-eu-officials/">difficult Brexit discussions</a> and the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord on the agenda.</p>
<p>The summit was largely divided, with French President Emmanuel Macron abandoning the joint communique for the first time in the group’s 44 years history due to the “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ad32bd4-c447-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9">deep crisis of democracy</a>”. Then-US President Donald Trump threw the stage-managed proceedings into disarray, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/09/canada-us-trudeau-trump-trade-relationship">throwing insults</a> at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over trade. </p>
<p>The context was that Trump had abruptly left the Paris Climate Accord in 2017, despite pleas to convince him otherwise. Trump’s push to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/g7-and-future-multilateralism">reinstate Russia</a> – a member of the then G8 until the 2014 annexation of Crimea – had been another point of contention, as was the focus on the fires in the Amazon. </p>
<p>Two years later, the US leadership under President Joe Biden is recommitted to multilateralism and more willing to cooperate with G7 partners on issues of trade, climate change, the role of Russia and China in intergovernmental cooperation, and the authoritarian resurgence. So are they likely to have a better summit?</p>
<h2>The COVID dimension</h2>
<p>The G7 countries will need to come together to tackle <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n292#:%7E:text=World%20Health%20Organization%20officials%20have,supplies%20of%20covid%2D19%20vaccines">vaccine nationalism</a> if there is any chance of controlling the pandemic. Though huge strides have been made in vaccinating citizens from wealthy countries, vaccines have not been evenly distributed. A citizen from a G7 country is <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/more-million-covid-deaths-4-months-g7-leaders-failed-break-vaccine-monopolies#:%7E:text=New%20calculations%20from%20the%20Alliance,in%20the%20world's%20poorest%20countries.">77 times</a> more likely to be offered a vaccine than someone living in the world’s poorest countries, according to the <a href="https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19344656.controversy-protests-g7-leaders-meet-oxford/">People’s Vaccine Alliance</a>. If the slow vaccination pace continues, it could be several decades before everyone around the world has been vaccinated.</p>
<p>Attention is currently on India, which faces one of the worst outbreaks of COVID-19 globally, with surging cases mostly due to the discovery of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01274-7">more infectious variant</a>. India is an invited guest to the G7 summit, as it was in 2019 and was going to be in 2020, joining Australia, South Africa and South Korea. </p>
<p>Conspicuously absent is Brazil, which is also coping with a dire COVID-19 outbreak (and has recorded 12.3% of the world’s total deaths, with 2.7% of the global population). Brazil’s leadership under Jair Bolsonaro has <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1181">come under fire</a> for downplaying the severity of the crisis and exacerbating the situation. Though including Bolsonaro may not have been productive due to his <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/brazexit-bolsonaros-nationalism-and-the-denial-of-brazilian-international-autonomy/1718322">hyper-nationalist agenda</a>, excluding key countries from the global south undermines representation in the body.</p>
<h2>New challenges</h2>
<p>As always, economic issues are at the forefront of the agenda. But as the G7 involves some of the largest economies in the world, there is greater acknowledgement that the glaring differences in economic security have spilled over to impact health security, and that health insecurity has a huge impact on global economic stability. </p>
<p>In an effort to tackle growing inequality, the G7 has <a href="https://theconversation.com/g7-tax-deal-if-you-think-multinationals-will-be-forced-to-pay-more-you-dont-understand-tax-avoidance-162294">reached an agreement</a> on a 15% global minimum corporate tax. This historic step has already been <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-57372682">criticised</a> as far too low to make a difference, with no way of stopping the operation of tax havens.</p>
<p>In addition to the lukewarm response to the minimum corporate tax rate commitment, This summit is also facing a backlash for the inadequate focus on environmental security and climate finance to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/03/climate-crisis-rich-countries-falling-short-on-vow-to-help-poorer-ones">help developing countries</a> commit to green energy.</p>
<p>This is in spite of the fact that G7 ministers already agreed to take new steps against fossil fuels <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57203400">in May</a>: in a pre-meeting, the G7 announced that it would stop international financing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-countries-agree-stop-funding-coal-fired-power-2021-05-21/">of coal projects</a>, mandate that corporations <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57203400">disclose their climate impacts</a>, and <a href="https://www.g7uk.org/g7-climate-and-environment-ministers-communique/">invest more</a> in clean energy. But climate-change campaigners have pointed to the hypocrisy of G7 countries <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/02/g7-nations-committing-billions-more-to-fossil-fuel-than-green-energy">spending over US$30 billion</a> (£21 billion) more to support oil, coal and gas between January 2020 and March 2021 than on investment in clean forms of energy.</p>
<p>Remarkably, the problems facing G7 leaders are even more complex and urgent than what the world faced in 2019. Addressing these issues requires greater inclusive diplomacy, coordination and follow-through, all things that the G7 forum has <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/g7-and-future-multilateralism">struggled to achieve</a>. In spite of calls for unity, the G7 is still plagued by ideological divisions that preclude collective muscle, while also lacking dominant leadership that can actually turn its communiques into meaningful action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UK will host the first G7 summit since 2019. Can they tackle global challenges?Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1501202020-11-24T17:48:35Z2020-11-24T17:48:35ZHow Biden and Kerry could rebuild America’s global climate leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370960/original/file-20201124-23-1g2nii1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1039%2C16%2C1211%2C826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President-elect Joe Biden picked former Secretary of State John Kerry, shown with him in 2015, to be U.S. climate envoy in the next administration.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/USObamaPopeFrancis/2a8661726b064cfb9dbc93dbfdd0f1e8/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>John Kerry helped bring the world into the Paris climate agreement and expanded <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/01/266480.htm">America’s reputation as a climate leader</a>. That reputation is now in tatters, and President-elect Joe Biden is asking Kerry to rebuild it again – this time <a href="https://www.state.gov/biographies/john-kerry/">as special presidential envoy for climate</a>, a position Biden plans to include in the National Security Council.</p>
<p>It won’t be easy, but Kerry’s decades of experience and the international relationships he developed as a senator and secretary of state may give him a chance of making real progress, especially if that work is conducted in the spirit of mending relationships rather than “naming and shaming” other countries.</p>
<p>Over the past four years, the Trump administration pulled the U.S. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-decision-to-leave-paris-accord-hurts-the-us-and-the-world-78707">out of the international Paris Agreement on climate change</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">rolled back</a> policies that were designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-draft-climate/u-s-blocking-g20-mention-of-climate-change-in-draft-communique-diplomats-say-idUSKCN20G0JU">tried to prevent any discussion</a> of climate change at international gatherings like the G-7 and G-20 summits.</p>
<p>The international community, meanwhile, largely moved forward. Many countries and regions have pledged to move their economies toward “<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/09/what-does-net-zero-emissions-mean-6-common-questions-answered">net zero</a>” greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China</a>, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_335">European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkora-environment-greenewdeal/south-koreas-moon-targets-carbon-neutrality-by-2050-idUSKBN27D1DU">South Korea</a> and <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076132">Japan</a>. An increasing number of cities and states have set <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/09/17/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/">similar goals</a>. Trump’s hard-line stance may have actually emboldened some, notably China, to make such announcements.</p>
<p>Getting those pledges implemented is what matters now, and that will require leadership, detailed planning and careful diplomacy. The U.N. climate conference in November 2021 will be special. It will be the first time countries will evaluate their progress on the Paris Agreement, and they will be expected to strengthen their commitments. Biden has already signaled that he will bring the U.S. back into the agreement as soon as he takes office.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sfI-c0YAAAAJ&hl=en">energy</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DAwwVkwAAAAJ&hl=en">policy</a> experts who have been involved in international climate policy for over two decades, we have watched how countries responded to U.S. involvement, and how their views of America’s ability to lead the world dimmed over the past four years. </p>
<p>The U.S. is the <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/international-emissions/">second largest greenhouse gas emitter worldwide</a> after China. It is also the largest emitter historically. Concrete domestic action to reduce those emissions will be critical to regaining trust and standing on the global stage.</p>
<h2>Energy is at the center of the climate challenge</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/1/">effects of climate change</a> are already evident across the globe, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/100-degrees-in-siberia-5-ways-the-extreme-arctic-heat-wave-follows-a-disturbing-pattern-141442">extreme heat waves</a> to <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/">sea level rise</a>. But while the challenge is daunting, there is hope. Solar and wind power have become the <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019">cheapest forms of power generation globally</a>, and technology progress and innovation continue apace to support a transition to clean energy. </p>
<p>In the U.S. under a Biden administration, long-term national climate legislation will depend on who controls the Senate, and that won’t be clear until after two run-off elections in Georgia in January.</p>
<p>But there is no shortage of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-biden-climate-change-advice/">ideas for ways Biden</a> could still take action even if his proposals are blocked in Congress. For example, he could use executive orders and direct government agencies to tighten regulations on greenhouse gas emissions; increase research and development in clean energy technologies; and empower states to exceed national standards, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions-california/defying-trump-california-locks-in-vehicle-emission-deals-with-major-automakers-idUSKCN25D2CH">as California did in the past with auto emission standards</a>. A focus on a just and equitable transition for communities and people affected by the decline of fossil fuels will also be key to creating a sustainable transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kerry and his granddaughter at the UN" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370963/original/file-20201124-15-1pj418z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then-Secretary of State John Kerry held his granddaughter as he signed the Paris climate agreement in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UNClimateChange/8ee883b0926f472f9c737f003a188b7d/photo">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. position as the world’s largest oil and gas producer and consumer creates political challenges for any administration. U.S. forays into European energy security are often treated with suspicion. Recently, France blocked <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-engie-backs-out-of-u-s-lng-deal-11604435609">a multi-billion dollar contract</a> to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas because of concerns about limited emissions regulations in Texas.</p>
<p>Strengthening cooperation and partnerships with like-minded countries will be critical to bring about a transition to cleaner energy as well as sustainability in agriculture, forestry, water and other sectors of the global economy.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<h2>Creating a global sustainable transition</h2>
<p>How the world recovers from COVID-19’s economic damage could help drive a lasting shift in the global energy mix.</p>
<p>Nearly one-third of Europe’s US$2 trillion economic relief package <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/eu-approves-biggest-green-stimulus-in-history-with-572-billion-plan">involves investments that are also good for the climate</a>. The European Union is also strengthening its 2030 climate targets, though each country’s energy and climate plans will be critical for successfully implementing them. The <a href="https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/">Biden plan</a> – including a $2 trillion commitment to developing sustainable energy and infrastructure – is aligned with a global energy transition, but its implementation is also uncertain.</p>
<p>Once Biden takes office, Kerry will be joining ongoing <a href="https://www.un.org/en/conferences/energy2021/about#:%7E:text=The%20overarching%20goal%20of%20the,2030%20Agenda%20for%20Sustainable%20Development.&text=Accelerate%20delivery%20of%20United%20Nations,related%20issues%20at%20all%20levels.">high-level discussions on the energy transition</a> at the U.N. General Assembly and other gatherings of international leaders. With the U.S. no longer obstructing work on climate issues, the G-7 and G-20 have more potential for progress on energy and climate. </p>
<p>Lots of technical details still need to be worked out, including international trade frameworks and standards that can help countries lower greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global warming in check. <a href="https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/what">Carbon pricing</a> and <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-can-europe-get-carbon-border-adjustment-right">carbon border adjustment taxes</a>, which create incentive for companies to reduce emissions, may be part of it. A consistent and comprehensive set of national energy transition plans will also be needed.</p>
<p>The global shift to <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/A-New-World-The-Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation">clean energy will also have geopolitical implications for countries and regions</a>, and this will have a profound impact on wider international relations. Kerry, with his experience as secretary of state in the Obama administration, and Biden’s plan to make the climate envoy position part of the National Security Council, may help mend these relations. In doing so, the U.S. may again join the wider community of countries willing to lead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150120/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Choosing former Secretary of State John Kerry as climate envoy is the first step. To regain trust, the U.S. will also have to take concrete actions to cut its own greenhouse gas emissions.Dolf Gielen, Payne Institute Fellow, Colorado School of MinesMorgan Bazilian, Professor of Public Policy and Director, Payne Institute, Colorado School of MinesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1134402019-04-12T02:06:02Z2019-04-12T02:06:02ZAmerica and the world still need the WTO to keep trade and the global economy humming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268892/original/file-20190411-44781-1lxc2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The WTO's home in Geneva.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/geneva-august-18-world-trade-organization-150489857?src=Ohp3Q9anSM6lue2OrPqqTg-2-68">Martin Good/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump <a href="https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/us-exit-wto-would-unravel-global-trade">has made no secret</a> of his disdain for the World Trade Organization.</p>
<p>Since taking office, the Trump administration <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-wto-judge/world-trades-top-court-close-to-breakdown-as-us-blocks-another-judge-idUSKCN1M621Y">has been blocking the appointment</a> or reappointment of WTO judges – imperiling the essential work of its court in issuing trade rulings. The president has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45364150">even threatened</a> to leave the global body if it doesn’t “shape up.” </p>
<p>But what exactly is the WTO, why does it matter and should Americans care if the U.S. left it? </p>
<p>As an international trade <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yNkGbyQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar</a>, I believe the WTO matters a great deal. To show why, I’d like to start with the history, which begins long before the agreement establishing the WTO <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/marrakesh_decl_e.htm">was signed</a> 25 years ago, on April 15, 1994.</p>
<h2>History of the WTO</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wto.org">Geneva-based WTO</a> was the culmination of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer-97896">50-year effort</a> spearheaded by successive U.S. governments to establish and secure a rules-based multilateral trade regime.</p>
<p>Before World War II, European powers imposed harsh trade restrictions against countries outside their empires, which hurt U.S. exporters substantially. This <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html">also contributed</a> to Japan going to war to carve out an “East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere” and Nazi Germany attacking eastward to obtain “living space” – that is, vassal territories – nearby.</p>
<p>The 1948 <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gatt.asp">General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade</a>, the WTO’s predecessor, was designed to avoid a repeat of the collapse of trade in the 1930s that <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520275850/the-world-in-depression-1929-1939">worsened the Great Depression</a> and to eliminate market access as a reason to go to war. But this agreement applied only to trade in goods, not services. </p>
<p>Efforts to forge a <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/theWTO_e/minist_e/min96_e/chrono.htm">more comprehensive trade treaty</a> didn’t succeed until the 1990s, following the so-called Uruguay Round of trade talks, which ultimately led to the creation of the WTO on Jan. 1, 1995.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266581/original/file-20190329-71016-s1vedx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The WTO’s creation was a significant accomplishment of the Clinton administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-DC-USA-APHS352110-President-Bill-Cl-/6b2b47ed07674cd28d0fe9fda02f0b14/9/0">AP Photo/Greg Gibson</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A success story</h2>
<p>The result has been spectacularly successful. <a href="https://comtrade.un.org/pb/">Country exports</a> as a share of global output surged from less than 5% in 1948 to over 30% today.</p>
<p>This enabled countries to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10thi_e/10thi03_e.htm">grow faster and steadier</a> and brought peace and prosperity to Europe and Japan. </p>
<p>Members of the WTO, which currently number 164, agree to four core principles: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Nondiscrimination, which means all imports are subject to the same tariff rate, with some exceptions;</p></li>
<li><p>Reciprocity, which balances the reduction of barriers and allows for retaliation; </p></li>
<li><p>Transparency;</p></li>
<li><p>Decision-making by consensus.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>The WTO facilitates trade negotiations among member countries to open up markets and <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_e.htm">settle disputes</a> that arise. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm">Subsequent rounds of negotiations</a> have allowed countries to take big steps toward trade liberalization, while balancing concessions with benefits. </p>
<p>When disputes arise, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/george-w-bush-tried-steel-tariffs-it-didnt-work-92904">Trump steel tariffs</a>, impartial panels adjudicate using WTO rules and permit injured countries to sanction violators. The U.S. <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm">ranks among the most frequent</a> and successful users of this, which has helped keep markets open for American exporters.</p>
<h2>What would happen if the U.S. left</h2>
<p>If the U.S. were to leave the WTO, other countries could freely raise tariffs against it. And the U.S. would lose access to the dispute settlement mechanism, which would make retaliation the only response available. </p>
<p>This would inevitably raise prices and reduce choice for U.S. consumers, undercutting the competitiveness and profitability of companies that rely on imports and slow economic growth.</p>
<p>The WTO’s demise would also raise the odds of violent conflict among states because it would reduce opportunities for peaceful economic expansion.</p>
<p>I know the WTO is far from perfect. Its reliance on consensus decision-making at times hampers progress on pressing problems, and its dispute settlement process can be slow. </p>
<p>That said, the WTO remains one of today’s most valuable international organizations, and I believe the world would be poorer and less peaceful without it.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-wto-99274">article</a> originally published on July 3, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Silvia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A quarter-century ago, more than 100 nations agreed to engage in freer trade with one another and signed the declaration that established the World Trade Organization.Stephen J. Silvia, Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1094442019-01-09T11:14:11Z2019-01-09T11:14:11ZBrexit, xenophobia and international students: how to combat ‘public paranoia’ over immigration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252629/original/file-20190107-32151-pxt3pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Restrictive immigration policies make it difficult for overseas students to stay on and get jobs after their degrees.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>No sector in the UK has more enthusiastically embraced globalisation than higher education. Top universities have erected campuses in new continents, expanded their share of students from abroad, and touted their instruction of “global citizens”. </p>
<p>The University of Oxford, for example, <a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/graduate/why-oxford/global-collaboration?wssl=1">boasts</a> that its “international profile rivals that of any university in the world”. My own institution <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/">labels</a> itself “London’s Global University”. </p>
<p>Such branding doubtlessly appeals to a new footloose class of international elites. Yet as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37554634">backlash</a> over globalisation surges amid Brexit, UK universities now face their own discontents. This is especially true when it comes to educating “foreign” students. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/poll-claims-public-in-favour-of-cap-on-foreign-students/421167.article">previous poll</a> has found a sizeable majority of the UK public supports a cap on international students. <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10304634/Xenophobic-Britain-drives-foreign-students-away-claims-professor.html">And according to</a> some university administrators: “Foreign students are being deterred from courses at British universities because of ‘public paranoia’ over immigration.”</p>
<h2>Too many students?</h2>
<p>Cultural xenophobia may explain some antipathy toward international students. Yet my own <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/clastraanadon/files/giftlastraanadon_maintext.pdf">research</a> with Stanford political scientist Carlos X. Lastra Anadón paints a more complex picture. It seems the public’s perceived self-interest also plays a pivotal role in shaping attitudes. </p>
<p>We discovered people were about 15% more likely to favour capping the number of international students when primed to think about them “crowding out” domestic students in university admissions. The bottom line: people are more likely to reject international students when they are perceived as a threat to those people or their children.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252635/original/file-20190107-32130-oqxmbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">International students are classed as long-term migrants in net migration targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Within the ivory towers of progressives, nods to the more <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/universities-must-sell-benefits-of-globalisation">intangible benefits</a> of international students – such as diversity and multiculturalism – receive well-deserved praise. Our results, however, suggest that convincing sceptics about the merits of international students also requires appealing to self-interest. By showing how international students help finance home students, for example.</p>
<p><a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/60451/">Research</a> by London School of Economics professor Stephen Machin and Richard Murphy at The University of Texas at Austin revealed that by paying higher fees, international students in effect subsidise certain domestic students.</p>
<h2>Other benefits</h2>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/international-students-uk-brexit-costs-benefits-non-eu-university-immigration-figures-a8152151.html">study</a> also highlighted the benefits international students bring to the UK economy. The findings by the Higher Education Policy Institute and Kaplan International Pathways revealed how international students outstrip their costs by roughly ten times. </p>
<p>Educating international students can even help to advance the UK’s national interests. Antonio Spilimbergo, economist at the International Monetary Fund, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/29730195?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">showed</a> how international student exchanges with democratic countries facilitate the spread of democracy abroad. </p>
<p>Likewise, my previous research with Daniel Krcmaric of Northwestern University in the US <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002715590878">demonstrated</a> how developing world leaders who are educated in the West are more likely to pursue democratic reforms in their home countries. In the long run, this makes all countries – including the UK – safer and more prosperous.</p>
<h2>Valuable skills</h2>
<p>If international students do have a downside, it’s that they too often leave after graduation. This deprives the economy of valuable skills. Yet this is a problem with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jul/02/get-a-job-or-get-out-the-tough-reality-for-international-students">restrictive immigration policies</a>, not talented international students.</p>
<p>As Jasmine Whitbread, CEO of London First, a not for profit advocacy group <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/sep/11/international-students-report-migration-advisory-committee-jobs-uk">complained</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>With firms struggling to fill skills gaps and vacancies outstripping the people available to fill them, it is economic madness to send these talented youngsters packing as soon as their studies are over.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As someone who teaches at one of the world’s most international universities, I know firsthand the unique benefits of international students. Balancing a global student body with a commitment to the nation isn’t a zero-sum game. UK universities know this, but they need to do better at explaining why. </p>
<p>If, as my research shows, self-interest drives public support for international students, then it’s essential that Britons know the facts. International students offer myriad advantages for the UK – and they should be welcomed with open arms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift received funding for research profiled in the paper from the British Academy. </span></em></p>Research shows people are more likely to reject international students when they are perceived as a threat to themselves or their children.Thomas Gift, Lecturer of Political Science and Director of the Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) Programme, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1066782018-11-13T11:45:47Z2018-11-13T11:45:47ZMore American students are studying abroad, new data show<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244861/original/file-20181110-116853-j3uytf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students who study abroad gain a competitive edge in the job market, research shows.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-graduating-female-student-holding-world-115841302?src=SV-5Wm2MNoK_Q0w6CsoMOw-7-17">Dan Korsmayer/www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kelsey Hrubes knew she had a challenge on her hands when she visited Germany as a study abroad student back in 2015.</p>
<p>“I was forced to adapt to cultural norms I had never considered before and try to comprehend everything in a new language,” recalls Hrubes, a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelseyhrubes/">software engineer at Microsoft</a> and 2017 Iowa State graduate in German and computer science.</p>
<p>Hrubes says if she hadn’t studied abroad and learned to adjust to new surroundings, she wouldn’t be nearly as confident as she is in her career.</p>
<p>Stories such as this are part of what’s behind the increasing number of university students who are studying abroad – many of whom are trying to gain valuable experience that will benefit them in their personal and professional lives.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.iie.org/opendoors">new data</a> released Nov. 13 by the Institute of International Education, more than 332,000 U.S. students studied abroad during the 2016-2017 academic year, an increase of 2.3 percent over the previous year.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244888/original/file-20181110-38373-19oweky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More minority students are studying abroad than a decade ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-female-backpacker-tourist-buys-ticket-507218665?src=kM--EVjXUhT40GR5_qY7iw-1-62">guruXOX/shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The institute’s annual Open Doors data also show gains in study abroad among minority students, who now make up 29 percent of all American students abroad. A decade ago, that figure stood at just 18 percent.</p>
<p>As a scholar who specializes in cross-cultural knowledge, business practices and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9NCNmwUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">student learning by means of study abroad</a> – and as co-director of a <a href="https://language.iastate.edu/valencia/about/">summer program in Valencia, Spain</a> – I see a few factors that have likely contributed to these increases.</p>
<h2>More options and motivating factors</h2>
<p>First, there has been a huge <a href="https://ejournals.bc.edu/ojs/index.php/ihe/article/download/8005/7156">increase in funding</a> for students to go abroad. Many of those funds are directed at students with financial need or who have <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/23/boost-minority-students-study-abroad/3171991/">minority status</a>.</p>
<p>Second, there are <a href="https://www.aifsfoundation.org/pdf/Destinations.pdf">more options</a> to study abroad in a variety of places and for different lengths of time.</p>
<p>Students are also beginning to recognize on their own the benefits of experiencing other cultures for professional reasons or future career advancement.</p>
<p>Research and experience demonstrate that students who are fully immersed in cultures abroad and who learn another language are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/foreign-language-improve-decisions/">better-equipped</a> to function in the global workforce. They become strategic thinkers and problem solvers, and excellent communicators in more than one language.</p>
<p>Many programs connect students’ disciplinary interests with an understanding of other people and cultures in order to create well-prepared and competitive students who will be global leaders in their professional fields.</p>
<p>Such an interdisciplinary focus was not always the norm in study abroad. Decades ago, faculty-led study abroad programs focused on one area, usually language study, or a particular academic discipline in <a href="https://frontiersjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/MOHAJERINORRIS-STEINBERG-FrontiersXVII-DoesLanguageMatter.pdf">English-speaking countries</a>. Today, more students are seeking ways to take coursework in their major by combining it with <a href="https://compact.org/changingfacestudyabroad/">unique hands-on experience</a>, such as international internships or service learning experiences abroad.</p>
<p>According to the 2018 Open Doors report, Europe remains a top destination of such programs, with around 32 percent of all students choosing the United Kingdom, Italy or Spain. However, other regions such as Asia, Africa and the Middle East continue to attract attention. In 2016-2017, interest in these regions together increased by 26 percent, according to Open Doors. Much of this interest comes from students interested in working on community-based sustainability projects in fields such as engineering or agriculture.</p>
<h2>Employers value experience abroad</h2>
<p>While students now have access to more funding to study abroad and a wider selection of destinations, corporate interest is factor driving the increase in students who study abroad.</p>
<p>Several major U.S. technology firms, such as Dell, Google and Microsoft, have stressed the need to find employees who are better-equipped to understand the <a href="https://www.iie.org/employability">global marketplace</a>. Study abroad, particularly programs in which students <a href="https://hbr.org/2012/08/speak-to-global-customers-in-t">learn another language</a>, help achieve that end.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244889/original/file-20181110-116853-11i7468.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research shows international experience gives graduates a leg up in the job market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-female-candidate-laughing-job-interview-743911858?src=xVHHmlnOINVVpPVg2JX8Jw-1-31">Mangostar/www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My <a href="https://works.bepress.com/chad_gasta/27/">own research</a> over 10 years shows that students who study abroad are better critical thinkers and problem solvers, more entrepreneurial and have better communication skills. They are also more tolerant and understanding. They have a greater appreciation for the arts, social issues and world events. They gain more insight into themselves and their lives.</p>
<p>Study abroad makes students <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2013/10/30/news/economy/job-skills-foreign-language/index.html">more marketable</a> for top jobs. And students are now reporting that their experience abroad is one of the first things they are asked about in <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2017/10/02/survey-study-abroad-tool-land-jobs">job interviews</a>. In fact, students who study abroad for a meaningful period of time make as much as 20 percent <a href="https://www.economist.com/prospero/2014/03/11/johnson-what-is-a-foreign-language-worth">more money</a> over the course of their careers. Additionally, students in many fields are <a href="https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Publications/Gaining-an-Employment-Edge---The-Impact-of-Study-Abroad">promoted</a> at a faster rate, and they are likely to get prime international assignments, perhaps in <a href="https://www.iesabroad.org/system/files/2008%20JSIE_How%20SA%20Shapes%20Global%20Careers%20%28Norris%2C%20Gillespie%29.pdf">more than one country</a>.</p>
<p>College graduates routinely acknowledge that their time abroad was one of the most <a href="https://www.iesabroad.org/study-abroad/benefits/alumni-survey-results">important and beneficial things</a> they did as a student. The thought of an international career is almost too good to pass up. Given such factors, participation in study abroad programs, particularly by minority students and women, should continue to grow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chad M. Gasta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In an effort to get a competitive edge in the global jobs market, more US college students are choosing to get international experience, an expert on study abroad says.Chad M. Gasta, Professor of Spanish and Chair, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1023062018-09-07T10:45:51Z2018-09-07T10:45:51ZCanada will be part of Trump’s new NAFTA – corporate lobbyists on both sides of the border will ensure it<p>The <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/15/trump-nafta-mexico-trade-740632">announcement</a> last month that the U.S. and Mexico had reached an agreement to replace NAFTA without Canada surprised trade experts around the globe. A deadline of Aug. 31 was set for the Canadians to join or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/28/world/canada/trump-nafta.html">be left out in the cold</a> – and hit with <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4428474/auto-tariffs-donald-trump-ontario-recession-economists/">fresh tariffs</a>. </p>
<p>The news was stunning because negotiators for all three countries had been trying to hammer out a new accord for over a year, ever since President Donald Trump followed through on his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-keeping-promise-renegotiate-nafta/">campaign threat</a> to demand the North American Free Trade Agreement be scrapped or replaced. </p>
<p>After the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-canada-rush-to-hash-out-nafta-compromise-1535724907">arbitrary deadline passed without any concessions</a> from the Canadians, let alone a finalized deal, Trump once again <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1035905988682018816">threatened</a> to exclude Canada from the new NAFTA via Twitter.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1035905988682018816"}"></div></p>
<p>While his blustering included a threat to end NAFTA entirely, it is all bark and no bite. What <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vf1UpqAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">trade scholars like me</a> know is that Trump does not have the upper hand in these negotiations. </p>
<p>Interest groups on both sides of the border will ensure that Canada is in the deal – and legally, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/union-leader-says-a-new-nafta-wont-work-without-canada-1535903570">it would be cumbersome</a> to do a deal that excludes the Canadians. </p>
<h2>Interest groups usually win</h2>
<p>In his tweets, Trump claimed that there was “no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal.” However, Canada does not seem to be feeling any sense of impending doom – and for good reason. </p>
<p>After Trump’s threats, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/top-canadian-official-touts-progress-in-nafta-trade-talks/2018/08/29/f0bea0a6-ab96-11e8-a8d7-0f63ab8b1370_story.html?utm_term=.020ebb1be2c7">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said</a> a compromise “will hinge on whether there is ultimately a good deal for Canada. No NAFTA deal is better than a bad NAFTA deal.” </p>
<p>In <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/272/jwt-article.pdf?1536280018">my own research</a> I’ve studied how interest groups influence trade policy, specifically in World Trade Organization dispute initiation and litigation. My work illustrates how countries depend upon industry interest groups – and in some cases, companies themselves – to help shape trade policy. </p>
<p>This research borrows from the work of Princeton politics professor Andrew Moravcsik, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/002081897550447">who theorized that</a> countries – especially democratic ones – primarily represent the preferences of domestic interest groups when engaged in international negotiations, and will rarely kowtow to the desires of trading partners.</p>
<p>In other words, governments want to stay in power and get re-elected. They need votes and campaign contributions to meet that goal, and corporate and industry interest groups can provide both.</p>
<p>That’s why Trudeau continues to stand firm that any deal with the U.S. and Mexico protect Canadian middle class jobs by protecting domestic dairy and poultry production and why he insists a so-called <a href="https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1855&context=cuslj">cultural exemption</a> that safeguards domestic television and radio from takeovers by U.S. media conglomerates be included in the new NAFTA. </p>
<p>Trudeau and his team of negotiators are not going to sing to the tune of Trump’s tweets. Rather, they’re following the standard political economist playbook: protect those industries and sectors that can help carry Trudeau to another win in the federal elections 13 months from now. </p>
<h2>Americans first</h2>
<p>On the other side of the table, there’s Trump. </p>
<p>He <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1035908242277376001">professes</a> to have American interests at heart in his hard-line handling of Canada in these ongoing NAFTA negotiations. And he has <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1035850173224824832">framed</a> NAFTA as a disaster and an agreement that has brought “the U.S. … decades of abuse” at the hands of Canada. </p>
<p>What Trump hesitates to acknowledge is the interdependence between the U.S. and Canadian economies. Both countries need each other. </p>
<p>Canada is the United States’ <a href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada">second-largest trading partner</a>, with US$673 billion in total goods and services crossing the border in 2017. The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that exports to Canada support over 1.5 million jobs, heavily concentrated in border states that went for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. </p>
<p>Take the automobile industry as an example: If Canada was left out of NAFTA, car prices could rise in the U.S. due to <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-threatens-canada-with-auto-tariffs-renews-call-to-end-nafta/2018/08/27/dfd3690c-aa15-11e8-9a7d-cd30504ff902_video.html">proposed</a> new tariffs on Canadian autos. And Canadians <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/07/05/canada-boycott-usa/">are already discussing</a> a boycott of American goods if negotiations turn sour, which could also lead to a decline in the sales of American cars. </p>
<p>If consumers in Canada and other countries are buying fewer American cars as a result of these <a href="https://apma.ca/north-american-auto-industry-knows-no-borders/">trade disputes</a>, that could lead to layoffs. The possible downward spiral that could result has both the auto industry and labor unions <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/union-leader-says-a-new-nafta-wont-work-without-canada-1535903570">concerned</a> about a NAFTA with no Canada. </p>
<p>And it’s not just cars. If Canada is kicked out of the new NAFTA, Americans would see a <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/07/16/canadian-tourism-to-us_a_23483022/">number of industries</a> negatively affected, from oil production to retail stores to tourism as Canadians will choose to <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/true-patriot-love-in-all-of-our-canadian-brands-kruger">buy more domestic products to avoid American ones</a>.</p>
<p>Basically, a NAFTA without Canada is a lose-lose situation for all involved. And while Trump may be willing to ignore the wishes of some interest groups since he has two years before he faces re-election, most lawmakers in Congress don’t have that luxury as the midterms fast approach. </p>
<p>It’s hard for me to imagine that Congress would support a NAFTA minus Canada, regardless of who controls the House in January 2019.</p>
<h2>Three is not a crowd</h2>
<p>The idea of throwing NAFTA out all together is, in my view, ludicrous, as industry on both sides of the border will not stand for it and Congress will not support it. </p>
<p>Trump is also legally restricted. While <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/four-scenarios-for-the-future-of-nafta-1526376600">he has been granted</a> fast-track authority by Congress to renegotiate NAFTA, this only allows Trump to ask lawmakers to approve a deal, by an up or down vote, that includes all three countries. If the current negotiations fail and Trump presents Congress with a trade deal with Mexico alone, the process will be slow and could be held up significantly – especially if there’s a change in control of the House.</p>
<p>Considering manufacturing interests were pro-NAFTA in 1994 and continues to derive benefits from the treaty today, North Americans can expect whatever replaces that deal to continue with Canada well into the future regardless of how long these negotiations take.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christina Fattore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A political scientist explains why corporate lobbyists and other interest groups will thwart Trump’s efforts to strong-arm or ignore Canada.Christina Fattore, Associate Professor of Political Science, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/992742018-07-03T10:35:45Z2018-07-03T10:35:45ZWhat is the WTO?<p>President Donald Trump has made the World Trade Organization <a href="https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/us-exit-wto-would-unravel-global-trade">a frequent target</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, he’s <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-trade-war-leaked-bill-world-trade-organization-united-states-d51278d2-0516-4def-a4d3-ed676f4e0f83.html">reportedly considering</a> suspending U.S. compliance with the global body – a claim the White House <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-wto/treasury-chief-mnuchin-slams-report-that-trump-wants-to-exit-wto-idUSKBN1JP1EC">quickly denied</a>.</p>
<p>What exactly is the WTO, and would it matter if the U.S. left it? As an international trade <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yNkGbyQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar</a>, I’d like to start with the history.</p>
<h2>History of the WTO</h2>
<p>Creation of the <a href="https://www.wto.org">Geneva-based WTO</a> in 1995 was the culmination of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer-97896">50-year effort</a> spearheaded by successive U.S. governments to establish and secure a rules-based multilateral trade regime.</p>
<p>Before World War II, European powers imposed harsh trade restrictions against countries outside their empires, which hurt U.S. exporters substantially. This <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html">also contributed</a> to Japan going to war to carve out an “East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere” and Nazi Germany attacking eastward to obtain “living space” – that is, vassal territories – nearby.</p>
<p>The 1948 <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gatt.asp">General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade</a>, the WTO’s predecessor, was designed to avoid a repeat of the collapse of trade in the 1930s that <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520275850/the-world-in-depression-1929-1939">worsened the Great Depression</a> and to eliminate market access as a reason to go to war. </p>
<h2>A success story</h2>
<p>The result has been spectacularly successful. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/264682/worldwide-export-volume-in-the-trade-since-1950/">Country exports</a> as a share of global output surged from less than 5 percent in 1948 to over 30 percent today.</p>
<p>This enabled countries to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10thi_e/10thi03_e.htm">grow faster and steadier</a> and brought peace and prosperity to Europe and Japan. </p>
<p>Members of the WTO, which currently number 164, agree to four core principles: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>non-discrimination, which means all imports are subject to the same tariff rate, with some exceptions</p></li>
<li><p>reciprocity, which balances the reduction of barriers and allows for retaliation </p></li>
<li><p>transparency</p></li>
<li><p>decision-making by consensus.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>The WTO facilitates trade negotiations among member countries to open up markets and <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_e.htm">settle disputes</a> that arise. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm">Subsequent rounds of negotiations</a> have allowed countries to take big steps toward trade liberalization, while balancing concessions with benefits. </p>
<p>When disputes arise, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/george-w-bush-tried-steel-tariffs-it-didnt-work-92904">Trump steel tariffs</a>, impartial panels adjudicate using WTO rules and permit injured countries to sanction violators. The U.S. <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm">ranks among the most frequent</a> and successful users of this, which has helped keep markets open for American exporters.</p>
<h2>What would happen if the US left</h2>
<p>If the U.S. were to leave the WTO, other countries could freely raise tariffs against it. And the U.S. would lose access to the dispute settlement mechanism, which would make retaliation the only response available. </p>
<p>This would inevitably raise prices and reduce choice for U.S. consumers, undercut the competitiveness and profitability of companies that rely on imports and slow economic growth. The WTO’s demise would also raise the odds of violent conflict among states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99274/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Silvia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump has often talked about leaving the World Trade Organization. An economist explains what it is and what would happen if the president had his way.Stephen J. Silvia, Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/943312018-04-24T13:21:14Z2018-04-24T13:21:14ZClimate change is not a key cause of conflict, finds new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214265/original/file-20180411-549-1vn9u0h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=822%2C0%2C3864%2C2700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Piyaset / www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis”, wrote the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/15/AR2007061501857.html">then-UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon</a> back in 2007, about an ongoing war which arose, he said, “at least in part from climate change”. Since then the idea that climate change has caused and will cause human conflict and mass migrations has become more and more accepted – just look at the claimed effects of droughts in Syria and Ethiopia.</p>
<p>The media has even started using terms such as “climate refugees” and “environmental migrants” to describe people fleeing their homes from these climate-driven conflicts. But it isn’t clear whether there is much evidence for this link between climate change and conflict – there certainly seems to be no consensus within the academic literature.</p>
<p>In our recent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0096-6">paper</a>, my student Erin Owain and I decided to test the climate-conflict hypothesis, using East Africa as our focus. The region is already very hot and very poor, making it especially vulnerable to climate change (in fact neighbouring Chad is by some measures the single <a href="https://theconversation.com/chad-is-the-country-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change-heres-why-78423">most vulnerable country</a> in the world). </p>
<p>As the planet warms, East Africa’s seasonal rains are expected to become <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">much more unpredictable</a>. This is a particular problem as recent economic development has been concentrated in agriculture, a highly climate-sensitive sector that accounts for more than half of the entire economy in countries like Ethiopia or Sudan. One study led by the European Commission found that declining rainfall over the past century may have <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest.2010.11212">reduced GDP across Africa by 15-40%</a> compared with the rest of the developing world. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214473/original/file-20180412-543-awxi8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chilling in North Darfur.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Gonzalez Farran, UN/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>East Africa also has a long history of conflict and human displacement, which persists in some countries to this day, such as the civil wars in Sudan and Somalia. The <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/">UN Refugee Agency reports</a> there were more than 20m displaced people in Africa in 2016 – a third of the world’s total. The <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/19/climate-change-could-force-over-140-million-to-migrate-within-countries-by-2050-world-bank-report">World Bank</a> predicts this could rise up to 86m by 2050 due to climate change. </p>
<h2>Is it really because of climate change?</h2>
<p>To test the climate-conflict hypothesis, Erin and I therefore focused on the ten main countries in East Africa. We used a new <a href="http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html">database</a> that records major episodes of political violence and number of total displaced people for the past 50 years for each of the ten countries. We then statistically compared these records both at a country and a regional level with the appropriate climatic, economic and political indicators.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1164&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1164&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216134/original/file-20180424-57601-7rntx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1164&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lower levels of conflict are associated with economic growth and stable politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0096-6">Owain and Maslin, 2018</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that climate variations such as regional drought and global temperature did not significantly impact the level of regional conflict or the number of total displaced people. The major driving forces on conflict were rapid population growth, reduced or negative economic growth and instability of political regimes. Numbers of total displaced people were linked to rapid population growth and low or stagnating economic growth. </p>
<p>The evidence from East Africa is that no single factor can fully explain conflict and the displacement of people. Instead, conflict seems to be linked primarily to long-term population growth, short-term economic recessions and extreme political instability. Halvard Buhaug, a professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, looked at the same questions in 2015 and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.336">his study</a> reached much the same conclusion: sociopolitical factors were more important than climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214268/original/file-20180411-566-ixe3e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fetching water in Ethiopia, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Melih Cevdet Teksen/Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>But refugees are linked to climate change</h2>
<p>Things were different for “refugees”, however – those displaced people who were forced to cross borders between countries. Refugee numbers were related to the usual demographic and socio-economic factors. But in contrast to total displaced people and occurrence of conflict, variations in refugee numbers were found to be related significantly to the incidence of severe regional droughts. And these droughts can in turn be <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-in-east-africa-some-headway-in-unpacking-whats-causing-them-75476">linked to</a> a long-term drying trend ascribed to anthropogenic climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/216133/original/file-20180424-57611-1u5ke77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As droughts have become more severe, refugee numbers have increased.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0096-6">Owain and Maslin, 2018</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, it is important to consider the counterfactual: had there been slower population growth, stronger economies and more stable political regimes, would these droughts still have led to more refugees? That’s beyond the scope of our study, which may not be a definitive test of the links between climate change and conflict. But the occurrence of peaks in both conflict and displaced people in the 1980s and 1990s across East Africa suggest that decolonisation and the <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/11/africas-forever-wars/">end of the Cold War</a> could have been key issues. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, while conflict has decreased across the region since the end of the Cold War, the number of displaced people remains high. We argue that with good stable governance there is no reason why climate change should lead to greater conflict or displacement of people, despite the World Bank’s dire predictions. Water provides one reason to be optimistic. The <a href="http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/transboundary_waters.shtml">UN reports</a> that, over the past 50 years, there have been 150 international water resource treaties signed compared to 37 disputes that involved violence. </p>
<p>What our study suggests is the failure of political systems is the primary cause of conflict and displacement of large numbers of people. We also demonstrate that within socially and geopolitically fragile systems, climate change may potentially exacerbate the situation particularly with regards to enforced migration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is a Professor at University College London, Founding Director of Rezatec Ltd, Director of The London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of Cheltenham Science Festival Advisory Committee. He is an unpaid member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board. He has received funding in the past from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, Royal Society, DIFD, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Leverhulme Trust and British Council.</span></em></p>We looked at ten countries in East Africa and found poverty and politics were much more important drivers of conflict and displacement than climate change.Mark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/614742016-07-06T01:05:20Z2016-07-06T01:05:20ZHow today’s crisis in Venezuela was created by Hugo Chávez’s ‘revolutionary’ plan<p>Venezuela is a nation rich with natural resources such as oil, gold, diamonds and other minerals. Yet, it is experiencing a crisis in which most people cannot find food or medicine.</p>
<p>In the past several months, there has been great social unrest in Venezuela. Venezuelans are going out on the streets demanding their basic needs, and storming delivery trucks and stores to get their <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/20/world/americas/venezuelans-ransack-stores-as-hunger-stalks-crumbling-nation.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur">hands on supplies</a>. Their daily activities are disrupted by water rationing and electricity cuts, which have resulted from long-term neglect of basic infrastructure.</p>
<p>Most people would take this as a sign that the government has simply failed. Many onlookers may assume Venezuela’s leaders are just incompetent. Why else would they not able to provide the people with the basic necessities like water, electricity, security and opportunity?</p>
<p>As a Venezuelan expat having served in the Venezuelan foreign service for two decades and directing a program for the Inter-American Development Bank, I know the crisis is the result of an effort to gain and maintain power, just as the Castro brothers have <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/20045528?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">successfully done in Cuba</a>.</p>
<h2>Call for revolution</h2>
<p>Chávez came to power, after unsuccessfully attempting a coup, by winning an election in 1998. He won by <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/venezuelas-chavismo-and-populism-comparative-perspective?format=HB&isbn=9780521765039">selling the idea</a> of giving power to the people, and ending the corruption of the traditional political parties that had governed Venezuela for the last quarter-century.</p>
<p>He won the election by a convincing margin. He started his presidency with the support of the people and a barrel of oil going for more than US$100. His original popularity and success permitted him to accomplish many of his goals that in other circumstances would have been very difficult.</p>
<p>In 2012, a member of the former Venezuelan president’s inner circle went public, alleging details of a plan he did not want to be a part of and rejected.</p>
<p>Guaicaipuro Lameda, a former general under President Hugo Chávez, <a href="http://www.noticierodigital.com/2014/03/guaicaipuro-lameda-bajo-el-chavismo-los-pobres-tiene-que-seguir-siendo-pobres/">shared details</a> of how Chávez and his supporters allegedly intended to carry out the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470674871.wbespm256/abstract;jsessionid=B1B685FB36399AAD9E4AB16A4932DD54.f03t01?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=">Bolivarian Revolution</a> he campaigned on. Chávez’s call for revolution expressed a rejection of imperialism that sought to establish democratic socialism for the 21st century.</p>
<p>But, Lameda claimed, Chávez’s plan to accomplish this involved taking control of all branches of power – the executive, legislative, judicial and military.</p>
<h2>Consolidating power</h2>
<p>Once in power, Chávez replaced the existing Congress by <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/14-chavez-constutional-legacy">creating a new National Assembly</a>, which he controlled. He used his new National Assembly to rewrite the constitution to perpetuate himself in power. The presidential periods were originally five-year terms without the possibility of immediate reelection. Former presidents could run again only after two terms had passed. The National Assembly changed it to six-year terms, with unlimited reelections, and extended these new parameters to governors and other elected officials. </p>
<p>Chavez served as president for 14 years, until his death in 2013.</p>
<p>The new National Assembly also reshaped the Supreme Court. They alleged the existing justices were corrupt, and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2004/12/13/venezuela-chavez-allies-pack-supreme-court">inserted Chávez’s followers</a> in their place.</p>
<p>Chávez created an image of an enlightened world leader, selling oil at a discount <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/3183417/Venezuelas-oil-output-slumps-under-Hugo-Chavez.html">to many Latin American nations</a> to buy good will. For example, he struck a deal to provided Cuba with <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/research/files/papers/2014/06/16-cuba-venezuela-alliance-piccone-trinkunas/cubavenezuela-alliance-piccone-trinkunas.pdf">deeply discounted oil in exchange for Cuban doctors</a>.</p>
<p>He started a war against the private sector. He <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2010/10/expropriations_venezuela">nationalized</a> thousands of private companies and industries, to the amazement of his followers and to the astonishment of business owners and consumers who did not see it coming.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/03/05/152850116/venezuelas-chavez-an-outsized-personality-a-domineering-figure">Chávez’s style</a> was confrontational, disrespectful and self-centered. He would spend countless hours on national TV offending anyone who would dare to disagree with him, and was known for reprimanding and firing cabinet ministers on live TV. Countless hours of the show <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/magazine/hugo-chavezs-totally-bizarre-talk-show.html">Aló Presidente</a> were produced.</p>
<h2>Chávez’s legacy haunts his successor</h2>
<p>Nicolás Maduro, current president of Venezuela, was previously a bus driver, union leader and unconditional follower of Chávez. In return, Chávez appointed him as a member of the National Assembly, the secretary of state, vice president and then his heir. </p>
<p>Maduro has tried to imitate Chávez’s style, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/afac6754-0503-11e3-9ffd-00144feab7de.html#axzz4CzIc5CdU">making Chávez an immortal figure</a>, promoting rituals and making his burial place a center of worship and spending lavishly to create a cult centered on the “Eternal Commander.”</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Maduro, who does not have the charisma or the political instincts of his predecessor, the barrel of oil is now $40 instead of $100. The population is restless with poverty, <a href="http://prodavinci.com/blogs/el-crepusculo-del-chavismo-por-boris-munoz-3/">which did not improve as Chávez promised</a>. Rampant and very public corruption has beleaguered the public sector and armed forces.</p>
<p>There is no opportunity in the private sector, since it was destroyed by nationalization, using confiscation or expropriation of private companies. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/22/venezuela-economic-crisis-guardian-briefing">local currency</a> is totally worthless.</p>
<p>Thanks to Chávez’s legacy, Maduro still holds control over <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-supreme-court-gives-maduro-broad-powers-1455314375">the Supreme Court of Justice</a> and the Armed Forces. His followers have organized <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/25/venezuela-motorcycle-gangs-vidoes-colectivos_n_4855640.html">civilian groups called “collectivos”</a> to mobilize against opposition.
He also has the support of the <a href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5150">Militia</a>, a large group of paramilitaries, well-trained and uniformed and unconditional followers of the “eternal commander,” Chávez.</p>
<p>How long will this perpetuation of power last? Only time will tell, but the tides may be turning.</p>
<p>In December, Venezuelans expressed their discontent and voted a sea change into the National Assembly, which is now controlled by the opposition. The international community is questioning the procedures by which several well-known opposition leaders have been jailed, and decisions of the election commission to delay a referendum.</p>
<p>Last month, the Organization of American States, an organization with 35 member nations in the region, approved a resolution to review the social, political and economic reality of Venezuela. They <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-outsiders-help-venezuela-in-the-midst-of-crisis-again-60426">may apply their Democratic Charter</a> to force the Venezuelan government to call a referendum that could end Maduro’s term as president.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the situation <a href="http://prodavinci.com/blogs/la-economia-en-venezuela-que-viene-por-asdrubal-oliveros/">continues to worsen</a>, and pressure from the Venezuelan people who are seeking an end to their hunger is growing by the day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pedro E. Carrillo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How does an oil-rich country end up with a food shortage? A GSU international development expert explains how the legacy of one man’s rise to power continues to cripple the nation.Pedro E. Carrillo, Professor of International Business, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.