tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/leanne-wood-15600/articlesLeanne Wood – The Conversation2016-05-23T09:21:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596092016-05-23T09:21:17Z2016-05-23T09:21:17ZHow Plaid leader Leanne Wood is building a new era of Welsh politics<p>After a tense week of behind-the-scenes talks, Labour’s Carwyn Jones has been <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-carwyn-jones-named-first-7993827">reconfirmed as first minister in Wales</a> – but not without a tense standoff with Leanne Wood, the charismatic leader of the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. The deadlock was finally broken after a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36307854">week of negotiations</a> between senior figures in both parties – but Welsh politics will never be the same again.</p>
<p>The Welsh Assembly has 21 <a href="http://www.assembly.wales/en/abthome/role-of-assembly-how-it-works/Pages/governance-of-wales.aspx">areas of responsibility</a> including health, environment and housing, and comprises 60 seats. Of these, <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-s-voting-system-explained-or-at-least-made-a-tiny-bit-simpler-bca7453169d9#.k74i4rud6">40 are elected</a> on a constituency-based first-past-the-post vote, while the other 20 are elected from regional lists to represent one of five Welsh regions (four assembly members (AMs) per region). Since it was created in 1999, Labour has been the largest party in the assembly but never won an outright absolute majority. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, has played both the official opposition role (1999) and joined Labour in a coalition in 2007.</p>
<p>Following the latest round of elections, and subsequent nominations of the presiding officer (speaker) and her deputy, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">resulting arithmetic of the assembly</a> was mostly as expected: Labour had 28 seats and the deputy presiding officer; Plaid, 11 and the presiding officer. The Conservatives meanwhile won 11 seats; UKIP seven and the Liberal Democrats won just one seat. Plaid, with the second largest number of seats, became the official opposition.</p>
<p>Though Plaid would surely not have chosen anyone else, the nomination of Wood for first minister (FM) <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/carwyn-jones-leanne-wood-tied-welsh-first-minister">surprised many</a>, as it had generally been assumed that Carwyn Jones would take up the role unopposed once again. Even more surprising was Plaid’s subsequent <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">support from UKIP and the Conservatives</a> which pushed Wood and Jones <a href="https://theconversation.com/welsh-assembly-in-deadlock-over-first-minister-vote-so-what-happens-next-59318">into a deadlock</a> (the sole Liberal Democrat AM, Kirsty Williams, supported Labour). In the end, because the presiding officers don’t vote, the two candidates had 29 nominations apiece.</p>
<p>And so, in a matter of days Wood emerged both as her party’s heroine – after dramatically clinching <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/assembly-election-2016-leanne-wood-11292451">a Welsh assembly seat</a> in Rhondda from Labour – and as a <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/wales/news/74892/labour-blasts-hypocritical-plaid-cymru-after-leanne-wood-first">controversial figurehead</a>, following this nomination for the top job.</p>
<p>Many had <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/carwyn-jones-fights-on-after-assembly-reaches-deadlock-in-first-minister-vote/">expected Jones</a> to automatically lead Labour in a minority government. However, in an attempt to show that Labour has no “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35715683">divine” right to rule</a>, the opposing parties chose another path – though whether this was an orchestrated collaboration <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">remains unconfirmed</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"733327406501638144"}"></div></p>
<p>Bewilderment that Welsh politics had <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.n4teo6uqh">suddenly got exciting</a> followed, as people wondered just what would happen to their government. Initial reactions, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/welsh-labour-plaid-cymru-accusations-assembly-standoff">especially from Labour members</a>, included soundbites about Plaid’s alleged treachery and the sell-off of Wales’ soul to the “evil” Tories and UKIP – though there was some more <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.jgno3ljej">balanced analysis</a> from commentators who recognised the legitimacy and boldness of Plaid to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-11/rt-davies-labour-had-no-divine-right-to-assume-first-ministership/">question Labour’s entitlement</a> to govern Wales without proper consultations and negotiations. This was in stark contrast to 2007, for instance, when parties did engage in negotiations and the prospect of a <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/failed-rainbow-coup-adam-price-10886665">possible “rainbow” coalition</a> between Plaid, the Lib-Dems and the Tories threatened Labour’s access to power. Rhodri Morgan, the outgoing Labour first minister at the time was eventually nominated to form a government three weeks after the elections. </p>
<p>But has Wood, who now takes on the role of leader of the opposition in the Senedd for the first time, been left unscathed by this? And, more importantly, why did no one see this coming? After all, Wood’s background and profile spell out a strongminded and rebellious political figure.</p>
<h2>New kind of leader</h2>
<p>Wood is a product of the Welsh valleys, with strong convictions on gender, the monarchy, the environment and Trident. She became an AM in 2003 and was elected as Plaid leader in March 2012, over two far <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-17388193">more seasoned candidates</a>, thanks to active younger supporters and a platform advocating bold policy changes. Praised by her own party members as a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17368526">leading communicator resonating</a> across Wales, she marks a double first for Plaid: the first woman and the first non-fluent Welsh speaker to lead the party.</p>
<p>Outside Wales, Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru were relatively unknown prior to the 2015 general election televised debates. She <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-2015-plaid-cymru-9092877">capitalised excellently</a> on being given a national platform, however, and emerged as a political leader “speaking for Wales”. Sharing the stage with other national party leaders, she came out <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-leader-whose-politics-were-forged-in-the-valleys-mining-communities-10188354.html">relatively well</a>, winning plaudits for her <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plaid-leanne-debate-farage-hiv-8975174">admonition of UKIP leader, Nigel Farage</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Leanne Wood battles Nigel Farage in a 2015 general election debate.</span></figcaption>
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<p>When elected leader, Wood inherited a party that had come third in the assembly elections the year before. Plaid’s further electoral record under Wood is a mixed bag: poor EU parliamentary election performance saw Plaid’s vote share decrease by 3.2% from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm">2009</a>, but the party held on to its only MEP. In the 2010 general election, Plaid’s vote share <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/08/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-3-plaid-cymru-2">increased marginally by 0.9%</a> from 2010 to 2015 – but that only enabled it to hold on to the three seats it already had.</p>
<p>This year’s assembly elections were the real test but – though there were some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">modest positive swings</a> in vote share – 1.3% in the constituency vote and 3% in the regional ballot – Plaid won only one seat more than in 2011, but this was enough to give them a strong negotiating hand in the fifth assembly.</p>
<p>Most disappointing however, has been Plaid’s declining record on producing gender-balanced assembly teams, despite Wood’s own strong feminist convictions. Once a pioneer <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/women-representation-westminster-stirbu/">leading on gender equality advances</a> in Wales, Plaid has now regressed significantly. Only four of their 12 AMs are women, down from 45% (7 out of 15) in 2011 elections and, 50% (6 out of 12) in 2003. </p>
<h2>Flexing new muscles</h2>
<p>Despite these results, other aspects of Wood’s leadership are more encouraging. The first minister “episode” is an exemplar of Plaid’s ability to show unity despite being ostracised by Labour and risking losing some of its hard-won support. It is also telling of the party’s <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.ve2pjaz80">more muscular approach</a>, and its new-found determination to demand Labour’s respect and maximise opportunities to implement its own policies. After all, we can argue that Plaid has capitalised excellently on the very minor electoral gains made on May 5.</p>
<p>No doubt the negotiations with Labour to break the deadlock were tough – but Wood stood her ground. Both parties left posturing aside and <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/first-minister-standoff-in-wales-could-be-at-an-end-as-labour-and-plaid-reach-agreement/">successfully kept the talks out of the media</a>. Being able to secure an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36320916">advanced look at the budget</a> and winning a formal platform for early consultations with Labour via liaison committees on finance, legislation and the constitution are outcomes that should please Wood and do her position no harm at all. </p>
<p>Plaid seems ready to challenge the establishment and the next five years will certainly test the party’s unity and Wood’s ability to build towards further electoral success. No longer content with the <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/one-big-happy-family-the-welsh-political-parties-3ea2fd01ffaa%23.mqd5uc3d1">eternal opposition status</a>, Plaid is growing up under Leanne Wood’s leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Stirbu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leanne Wood: socialist, republican, feminist – and the woman who is changing the face of Welsh politics.Diana Stirbu, Senior Lecturer in Public Administration, London Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590122016-05-06T10:28:41Z2016-05-06T10:28:41ZWales: UKIP and Plaid gain new assembly seats as Labour holds on to power<p>In the Welsh Assembly elections, much of the story has remained unchanged: Labour has won again, keeping the leading position it has enjoyed since the Senedd was first opened in 1999. </p>
<p>Despite seeing a significant fall in vote share on the last National Assembly election – down <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">7.9% across all constituencies</a> – Labour is still well ahead of a divided opposition, and held on to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-06/leanne-wood-victory-in-rhondda-shock-result/">all but one</a> of its constituency seats. In total, Labour now has 29 out of the 60 seats altogether – coming in well ahead of the field, and holding on to two regional list seats, as well as the three seats it had been projected to lose: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Llanelli.</p>
<p>While these elections at least have heralded no surprises for the winner, the race for second place was an altogether very different matter.</p>
<p>For Plaid Cymru, the night was one of mixed fortunes. Party leader <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/06/labour-wales-plaid-cymru-takes-rhondda-plaid-cymru">Leanne Wood won a famous victory in Rhondda</a> – beating former Labour AM Leighton Andrews, who had held the seat for 13 years – with a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36207410">24% swing in votes</a> to the party of Wales. Elsewhere, however, Plaid fell short in all their constituency targets, such as Llanelli and Aberconwy. </p>
<p>The Conservatives were among the big losers of the night, losing three seats and their position as the assembly’s second party. They had begun the campaign hoping to make significant gains, having managed to take former Labour strongholds <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32639473">Gower</a> and Clwyd in the 2015 General Election. But they lost votes, and regional list seats, allowing Plaid Cymru to reclaim its place as second in the Senedd.</p>
<p>But if the Tories were losers, UKIP were in some ways the biggest winners. Although the party slightly under-performed its vote share in recent polls, the night can only be described as a huge success for UKIP. Never having won a seat before in the assembly, it now has a contingent of seven AMs dotted across the country, elected via the regional lists. Former Conservative MP Mark Reckless, the party’s Wales leader Nathan Gill, and former MP Neil Hamilton were among those who made the “breakthrough”, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/elections-2016-ukip-win-first-seats-in-welsh-assembly-a7016071.html">in the words of Nigel Farage</a>.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Democrats, party leader Kirsty Williams won an impressive personal victory in Brecon and Radnorshire, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/wales-constituencies/W09000041">increasing her majority by 9.3%</a> – 8,170 votes more than prospective Conservative candidate Gary Price. Following the results announcement, Williams promised that the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36222772">party’s rebuild “begins here”</a>, but with her now being the only Lib-Dem in the chamber (down from six elected in 2011) her party will no longer have official recognition in the assembly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Scully receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>All eyes were on the race for second place in the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections.Roger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417252015-05-18T14:11:59Z2015-05-18T14:11:59ZA tale of two nations: why the Scottish nationalists outperformed Plaid Cymru<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82005/original/image-20150518-25412-4rlo0o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will Plaid touch down at the 2016 elections?
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/leanne.wood.714/photos/pb.463813337026688.-2207520000.1431941433./826298374111514/?type=3&theater">Leanne Wood/Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the post-apocalyptic scenario, where the Welsh rugby team is thrashed 56-3 by Scotland. Amidst the doomsday spectre of an empty Millennium Stadium would be calls for the coach to be sacked, the team dismantled and the tactics radically overhauled.</p>
<p>Now, substitute this vision for the recent performance of Plaid Cymru in the 2015 general election. Merely holding on to its three MPs in the Welsh language heartlands looks paltry in comparison to the bounty of 56 seats, enjoyed by the SNP. And Plaid’s 12.1% of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/wales">Welsh vote</a> was dwarfed by the SNP’s 50% of the Scottish vote share. Consequently, while the SNP are by some distance the largest party in Scotland, Plaid remain in fourth place in Wales behind Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP, apparently unable to exploit numerous opportunities presented to it, namely:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The positive momentum generated by the SNP’s popularity in the wake of the Independence referendum.</p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-2015-welsh-liberal-9212468">capitulation</a> of the Liberal Democrats.</p></li>
<li><p>The lethargy of Labour’s campaign and the Miliband “Marmite” factor.</p></li>
<li><p>The unprecedented exposure enjoyed by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-leader-whose-politics-were-forged-in-the-valleys-mining-communities-10188354.html">Leanne Wood</a> in the <a href="http://www.cityam.com/213935/bbc-leaders-election-debate">leaders’ debates</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Unlike some of her counterparts, Leanne Wood has not found herself on the leaders’ scrapheap. In fact, examinations of Plaid’s performance have praised her conduct. One Plaid AM has gone as far as to suggest that she now has “huge” potential to be seen as an <a href="https://twitter.com/SimonThomasAC/status/598107535921565697?lang=en-gb">alternative First Minister of Wales</a>. The successful <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/02/04/271525839/borgen-is-denmarks-west-wing-but-even-better">Borgen</a>-isation of Wood’s image, the conviction of her <a href="https://twitter.com/Plaid_Cymru/status/596422374024736769">Voice of Wales</a> campaign and the alliance with the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon suggest a revitalised Plaid Cymru brand. Various polls suggested Wood was the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/story/2015-03-30/latest-welsh-barometer-poll/">most-liked Welsh politician</a> and also the one that “<a href="http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/plaid-cymru-poll-finds-welsh-9166087">best stands up for the people of Wales</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Best buddies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/leanne.wood.714/photos/pb.463813337026688.-2207520000.1431943449./822003101207708/?type=3&src=https%3A%2F%2Ffbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net%2Fhphotos-ak-xpt1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F11133659_822003101207708_4414150067732785345_n.jpg%3Foh%3D2a678d302032e082b9487ec941717fef%26oe%3D55FCAC11%26__gda__%3D1438990357_90de03c1ef7aa7147d027086a2fe597c&size=960%2C720&fbid=822003101207708">Leanne Wood/Facebook</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And yet, it is clear that Wood’s popularity did not translate into a deluge of votes. In fact, her prominence – combined with the buoyancy of “<a href="http://theconversation.com/cybernats-chase-down-no-camp-online-as-scotlands-indyref-approaches-31586">cybernats</a>” on social media – may well have provided an over-inflated estimation of Plaid’s chances. The reality is that holding on to its three existing seats, and coming within 229 votes of capturing one of its target seats in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000041">Ynys Môn</a>, was far from disastrous.</p>
<h2>Is it a fair fight?</h2>
<p>Traditionally, neither the SNP nor Plaid have performed spectacularly well in Westminster elections, but as professor Laura McAllister has suggested, the parties are not “<a href="http://theconversation.com/can-welsh-nationalist-party-plaid-cymru-turn-its-fortunes-around-36743">two sides of the same coin</a>”. Although both now share similar aspirations towards independence and progressive left-of-centre policies, the respective identities of Scotland and Wales have, historically, been very different. The fact that Plaid hasn’t been swept upwards by the SNP whirlwind isn’t really so surprising after all.</p>
<p>To begin with, Scotland’s union with England was achieved on a more equal footing than the 16th century Acts of Union that “incorporated” Wales. And Scotland retained many significant aspects of statehood, such as Scots Law and a separate education system. This enabled it to pull far ahead of Wales in terms of administrative devolution: Wales got its first Secretary of State in 1964; the Scottish equivalent had been established in the 19th century.</p>
<p>This provided the Scots with a broader sense of civic identity, which, combined with the 1970s narrative of “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html">Scotland’s oil</a>”, saw the Welsh playing a game of constitutional catch-up. Unsurprisingly, in both the 1979 and 1997 referenda, devolution proved far more appealing to Scottish voters than it did to those in Wales.</p>
<h2>A language game</h2>
<p>From its incipient years in the 1930s, the SNP was driven more by constitutional reform than a desire to reinforce Scottish cultural distinctiveness. By contrast, the purpose of Plaid Cymru stems from a fear of language decline that often alienated it from the majority non-Welsh speaking population, and led to unsubstantiated allegations that it was “<a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2014/10/fascists-fascists-plaid-and-the-charges-of-extremism/">fascist</a>”.</p>
<p>In her memoirs, the SNP’s <a href="http://digital.nls.uk/scotlandspages/timeline/1967.html">Winnie Ewing</a> recalls telling Plaid Cymru’s leader <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/nostalgia/welsh-history-month-gwynfor-evans-7932525">Gwynfor Evans</a> that she was envious of the “linguistic heritage” of Wales. She was rather surprised by his response that, unlike Wales, support for the SNP could come from anywhere as “an inbuilt patriotic response which was not dependent on language.”</p>
<p>What’s more, British and <a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2015/05/for-wales-see-england/">English-centric</a> values have retained a firmer grip on Wales. The recent election witnessed drastic contrasts in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">UKIP</a> poll, with the party gaining 13.6% of the vote in Wales, but only scraping 1.6% in Scotland. And while both Labour and the Conservatives have seemingly failed to adjust to devolution north of the border – allowing the SNP to mop up the populist protest vote – both parties have successfully promoted and cultivated their “Welsh” credentials.</p>
<p>The question now is, where next for Plaid? While the success of UKIP suggests – at least in part – Plaid’s failure to attract Labour’s disillusioned working-class vote, there are also fears among some of its supporters that it has abandoned the <a href="https://twitter.com/SeimonBrooks/status/596566446605467648">centre-ground</a> to the resurgent Conservatives. As the Welsh Assembly has acquired further powers, support for Welsh independence has also dwindled: 6% according to the latest <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/BBCICM-St-Davids-Day-2015.pdf">St David’s Day Poll</a>, but as low as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/24/3-per-cent-back-welsh-independence">3% </a>in the aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum. </p>
<p>With Leanne Wood – a socialist from the Rhondda – at its helm, the 2016 assembly elections will be the ultimate barometer of Plaid’s ability to transcend its historical image as a factional language pressure group. If Plaid fails to make a strong showing, it will be testament to its failure to emulate the SNP’s broad-church appeal. But, it will also highlight that Welsh dragons and Scottish lions are very far from being the same species.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plaid did not fare as well as its Scottish cousin in the general election - and history can tell us why.Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History, Bangor UniversityAndrew Edwards, Dean of Arts and Humanities and Senior Lecturer in Modern History, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/412842015-05-06T05:26:19Z2015-05-06T05:26:19ZWant to form a coalition? Follow this simple step-by-step guide<p>Dear <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-cameron-wobbles-conservative-hq-needs-to-ditch-the-negative-campaign-40864">Dave</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/staking-out-the-radical-centre-wont-save-the-lib-dems-39651">Nick</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/slick-mili-from-liability-to-switched-on-leader-with-a-few-well-timed-selfies-40740">Ed</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukip-manifesto-a-bid-for-credibility-after-disappointing-campaign-kick-off-40279">Nigel</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-take-pleasure-in-the-grilling-of-natalie-bennett-38006">Natalie</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-nicola-sturgeon-want-in-return-for-supporting-a-labour-government-40426">Nicola</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-welsh-nationalist-party-plaid-cymru-turn-its-fortunes-around-36743">Leanne</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-labour-deal-might-be-a-better-bet-for-the-dup-after-the-election-40878">Peter</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30063185">Alasdair</a>, <a href="http://allianceparty.org/contact/party-leader-david-ford">David</a>, and <a href="http://uup.org/our-people/mlas">Mike</a> (Gerry and Martin, you can <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-northern-ireland-32117985">ignore all of this</a>),</p>
<p>The outcome of the 2015 General Election may surprise us all. But what’s clear is that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-electoral-arithmetic-keeping-britains-political-strategists-awake-at-night-40876">none of you will be able to govern alone</a>. The coalition seemed like a one-off in 2010, but now it looks like the new normal of UK politics.</p>
<p>This is frustrating for you, Dave and you, Ed, but it does provide new opportunities for the others. You may get the chance to be in government or at least exercise influence over it.</p>
<p>In order to make sure you understand what the stakes are in this game, and how you can best play the hand dealt you by the great British public on May 7, I’ve put together a bluffer’s guide for you.</p>
<h2>Rule 1: draw red lines in pencil</h2>
<p>Nick <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-nick-clegg-really-lose-his-seat-in-the-general-election-39515">knows what happens</a> when you campaign with a big flagship policy only to have to go back on your word after the election. But by the same token, you should never completely rule yourself out of making a political deal with your opponents. You never know when you will need to talk to that erstwhile implacable political foe, as Ed may find out if Nicola holds the balance of power. </p>
<h2>Rule 2: take your time</h2>
<p>There will be a lot pressure from the civil service, media, and financial markets to come to a quick deal after the election. But there’s no need to rush.</p>
<p>As far as Europe goes, the time it usually takes for a new government to form in the UK is uniquely short. The average time for European countries is about a month and, in some countries (see the <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/1735693">Netherlands</a> and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/8936857/Belgium-to-have-new-government-after-world-record-541-days.html">Belgium</a>) it can be many months before a government forms. And guess what – they are no less stable for it. </p>
<p>So take your time, and weigh up your options.</p>
<h2>Rule 3: really, really know your options</h2>
<p>So you think you know the numbers, but how well informed are you about them? Did you know that <a href="http://opus.bath.ac.uk/25979/1/Lees_How_unusual_is_the_UK_Coalition_and_what_are_the_chances_of_it_happening_again_.pdf">1,024 possible coalitions</a> could have been formed after the 2010 election? This of course ignores inconvenient details such as party membership, ideology, pre-election promises, and personal enmities, though. Taking all that into account, these are the likely options in 2015:</p>
<p><strong>Conservative minority government</strong> </p>
<p>Dave, I am sure you will find this an attractive option if the parliamentary arithmetic allows. As the incumbent prime minister and possibly the leader with the largest share of parliamentary seats, you will argue strongly that this is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/miliband-might-scrape-through-but-questions-could-remain-about-his-right-to-govern-41101">only legitimate option</a>. But the UK is a parliamentary democracy, and you’ll have to command the confidence of the House of Commons and be able to put forward a legislative agenda to make it work.</p>
<p>Strike a deal with Nick if you can, but you might also need to bring someone else in. Nick and Nigel <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nick-clegg-rules-out-lib-dem-coalition-with-any-party-also-doing-a-deal-with-snp-or-ukip-10203481.html">don’t get on</a>. Can you get them to play nicely if Nigel is elected? If not, ditch Nigel and consider looking to Northern Ireland to link up with Peter or David. </p>
<p><strong>Labour minority government</strong> </p>
<p>Ed, you’ve made this option more complicated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/ed-miliband-can-protest-all-he-likes-dealing-with-the-snp-could-be-his-only-way-into-office-40866">ruling out “deals” with Nicola</a> and by not going out of your way to woo Nick. On the plus side, you have more potential allies – and even if they’re not really allies, it would be hard for Nicola to vote with Dave to bring down Labour. What would she tell voters in Scotland? So Nicola, are you able to really lever Ed? And Ed, can you call Nicola’s bluff? Or can you find other potential partners? Have you talked to Nick? If you haven’t, you should.</p>
<p><strong>Conservative-led coalition</strong> </p>
<p>Dave, Con-Lib 2.0 would be the best available option for you. You get on with Nick and his party are a known quantity (and a bit of a pushover, you might think, but never say out loud). It becomes more problematic if you need a third party to command a majority in the Commons. Would this just be “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-confidence-and-supply-government-40442">confidence and supply</a>” or would you need to offer a formal partnership? </p>
<p>Nigel might co-operate on confidence and supply, but would Nick be prepared to sit around the cabinet table with him or Douglas Carswell? In fact, Nigel has <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11407038/Nigel-Farage-I-will-back-Tory-led-Coalition-if-we-have-a-EU-referendum-this-year.html">ruled out entering a formal coalition</a>, but he also said he’d <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11467045/Nigel-Farage-If-I-lose-in-South-Thanet-its-curtains-for-me-I-will-have-to-quit-as-Ukip-leader.html">resign</a> if he fails to win South Thanet – and Douglas might take a different view on formal co-operation.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80546/original/image-20150505-933-cn64fv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dave and Peter: a full house?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/niogovuk/10208785834/in/photolist-danvaW-danwEH-dantJ2-danuY1-danxH8-dans1g-danrFK-danyGh-gy7H5W-eRjs6T-eRvUeQ-gy61o9-gy5BWW-gJrwXf-gyu3co-gy7GmS-gJqJ68-gJqwi9-eRiVe8-hvJGGQ-danrM6-danuAZ-dant88-dany5Q-danymh-danuHE-dantAn-dant4w-dansgv-danwpM-dansPd-dantjL-danxuR-danwgM-dantcT-danuc6-danwRY-danv4G-danwyT-danwGf-danuHt-danwgw-danuQa-dansNM-danrCv-dantjX-danxFj-dansyx-dansWa-danuXr">Northern Ireland Office</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What about Peter or David? Their “plain speaking” on cultural issues like <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-for-abortion-rights-if-this-northern-irish-party-holds-the-balance-of-power-in-britain-40589">abortion</a> and same-sex marriage might be a problem with your more metropolitan members and supporters. The Northern Irish parties are also keen on increasing public spending in Northern Ireland. Will die-hard provincial Tory backbenchers stand for more big-state largesse flowing to the Celtic fringes?</p>
<p><strong>Labour-led coalition</strong> </p>
<p>All options come with risks, Ed. The perils of working informally with Nicola would only be amplified in a formal coalition, and it’s hard to see how governing with the SNP would help Labour win back Scottish seats. At the same time, a Lab-SNP arrangement would play very badly south of the border, all too easily fitting a narrative of English taxpayers subsidising rebellious Scots. Ed, I can’t see Lab-SNP ending well, and would avoid it if I were you. </p>
<p>An alternative for you would be some sort of “rainbow coalition”, perhaps cobbled together with Nick and bringing in Leanne, and possibly Peter, David, or Alasdair along for the ride. Given the number of parties this might involve, coalition management would be a serious problem, and the press would have a field day over the inevitable gaffes and rifts. Finding a way forward over key issues such as economic policy would be tortuous. Ed, you would have to think long and hard about this option as well.</p>
<h2>Rule 4: Know when not to play your cards</h2>
<p>None of the most likely options for government are problem-free. Any government that emerges after May 7 will be clunky, fractious, and vulnerable to manipulation over timetabling, procedure, and favour-trading. It will not be an easy ride under any circumstances – and in the context of a fragile economic recovery, austerity, growing enmity between the UK’s constituent nations, and calls to leave the EU, the next five years are going to be unpleasant and potentially disastrous for any party whose leader makes the wrong choice in the days after May 7. </p>
<p>I know it’s almost impossible for politicians to give up the chance to govern, but all of you might want to consider it this time. All good card players know that there is a time to play your hand and a time to hold. </p>
<p>For one or two of you, there may never be a better opportunity to cash in your cards. For others, including Ed, this might be the right time to pass. Let’s wait until May 8, and see the hands you are actually dealt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41284/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Lees is affiliated with the Labour Party.</span></em></p>In 2010, there were more than 1,000 potential coalition options. Here’s how to make friends in 2015.Charles Lees, Professor of Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/408752015-04-27T15:16:40Z2015-04-27T15:16:40Z‘Never mind her policies, what’s she wearing?’ Newspapers run a sexist eye over UK election<p>In <a href="http://www.jomec.co.uk/blog/wp-admin/%20http:/news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/318237-nicola-sturgeon-sexism-in-politics-can-put-women-off-public-life/">a recent interview</a> with Scottish Television’s Debi Edwards, the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon spoke about the sexism she routinely encounters. Referring to the fact that her appearance is regularly scrutinised, Sturgeon also told of how she is often asked about not having children. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Alex Salmond doesn’t have children. He might tell you differently but I’m not aware of reading an interview or seeing an interview with Alex Salmond asking that question.</p>
<p>So yes, I understand it but I think it’s just one of these things. I’m not moaning about this but it’s just one of these things that I think is just a bit different if you’re a woman in politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sturgeon’s estimation that things are a “bit different” for women in politics is an understatement – which, to be fair, I’m sure she realises. Over the past few weeks the media coverage that she, Leanne Wood (leader of Plaid Cymru) and Natalie Bennett (leader of the Green party) have received indicates that we still have sections of a news culture fixated not on them as elected officials but as stereotypical representatives of their sex. </p>
<p>It’s fair to say that their potency as politicians is undermined by a general coverage which links their perceived characteristics to their gender. This just does not happen with men. Sturgeon <a href="http://www.jomec.co.uk/blog/wp-admin/.http:/www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/21/tories-and-rightwing-press-resort-to-sexist-sturgeon-jibes%20">in particular</a> has been sexualised, patronised, demonised and even animalised. </p>
<p>It’s become an almost daily occurrence - the day after Sturgeon’s interview with Edwards <a href="http://www.jomec.co.uk/blog/wp-admin/%C2%A0http:/www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6426865/Early-years-of-SNP-leader-Nicola-Sturgeon.html">The Sun</a> ran an article entitled: “The Scotweiler – Early years of the woman who would break up Britain” which began:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a child, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is said to have devilishly hacked the hair from her sister’s beloved doll. It was an early sign of the ruthlessness which has propelled her to the top of Scottish – and potentially British – politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Godzilla in high heels</h2>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"590262432016293889"}"></div></p>
<p>Labelled as the most dangerous woman in Britain by the Daily Mail on April 21 (where, as James Doleman pointed out, the quotation marks which would normally be used in making such a statement have been left out) references to Sturgeon’s appearance have been the norm. </p>
<p>For <a href="http://www.jomec.co.uk/blog/wp-admin/%20http:/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3025973/Why-not-calling-Scotland-s-Lady-Krankie-Nicola-Sturgeon-living-proof-women-sexier-age-income-office.htm">Liz Jones</a>, Sturgeon was living proof that women become sexier with age, writing that she had shed the pounds, bleached her hair and squeezed her feet into Kurt Geiger heels. <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3047165/PIERS-MORGAN-Meet-dangerous-wee-woman-world-ve-never-heard-of.html">Piers Morgan</a> reasoned that this diminutive but sharp-witted woman has rampaged through the UK election campaign like a mini-Godzilla, breathing fire and brimstone.</p>
<p>In the Telegraph, the increasingly beyond parody <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11548389/If-Ed-Milibands-in-the-driving-seat-Nicola-Sturgeon-will-be-steering-him-to-the-Left.html">Boris Johnson</a> railed against this “Lady Macbeth” whilst invoking King Herod and Attila the Hun at the gates of Rome.</p>
<h2>Wrecking ball</h2>
<p>But the Daily Mail and The Sun are the usual suspects, patently terrified of a minority Labour government supported by the Scottish nationalists. Recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/sexism-is-still-rife-in-the-news-but-we-may-be-about-to-see-some-improvement-39268">Karen Boyle</a> argued that these representations of Sturgeon – most notably when she was depicted, again in <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/fury-sexist-sun-depict-first-5314278%20">The Sun</a>, clad in a tartan bikini swinging on a wrecking ball a la Miley Cyrus – have received widespread condemnation demonstrating that the news media can be proactive in challenging <a href="http://everydaysexism.com/">“everyday sexism”</a>. </p>
<p>Up to a point this is true – but then what are we meant to make of the BBC’s <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nicola-sturgeons-head-is-photoshopped-onto-kim-kardashians-body-as-newsnight-give-leaders-the-milifandom-treatment-10198404.html%C2%A0">Newsnight</a> of April 23 , where in the closing credits, Sturgeon’s head was photoshopped onto the body of Kim Kardashian? OK, the skit was part of a sequence which, in the light of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/milifandom-how-young-people-reclaimed-their-political-power-40738">“Milifandom”</a> story last week, saw the heads of Cameron and Miliband superimposed on the bodies of David Beckham and Harry Styles. So equality of sorts, but it was hard to disagree with the sentiments of The Sun’s head of PR, Dylan Sharpe, who tweeted:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"591172019208724480"}"></div></p>
<p>Presence in the leaders’ debates notwithstanding, the coverage of Leanne Wood and Natalie Bennett has generally reflected the minority status of the parties they represent. Outside of some splendid <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/10/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-interview">portraits and interviews</a> in The Guardian, there has been little national focus on Wood. When she did hit the headlines in the first leader’s debate for challenging UKIP’s Nigel Farage’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wxLHVCq26k">“scaremongering”</a> over immigrants use of the NHS, the <a href="http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/02/leaders-debate-2015-leanne-wood-had-twitter-swooning-when-she-took-on-farage-5133212/%20">Metro</a> reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The votes are in and it’s clear which party member won ‘Biggest Heart Throb’ during the election 2015 debate.</p>
<p><em>Drum roll</em></p>
<p>Leanne Wood.</p>
<p>Yes, the Plaid Cymru leader had Twitter swooning when she took on Nigel Farage.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the name of humour, the Daily Mail’s <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3023800/QUENTIN-LETTS-Leanne-valleys-straight-recording-Gavin-Stacey.html">Quentin Letts</a> easily managed to live up to the caricature of a Mail journalist by resorting to lazy cliché and patronising prose. He wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>And Who On Earth was that Welsh Leanne? Had she walked in from a recording of Gavin and Stacey? ‘I’m from the Valleys,’ she announced. Well blow us all down with a kestrel feather, darlin’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Natalie Bennett’s media performances both before and after the campaign began have attracted criticism but when she took part in a disastrous radio interview with <a href="http://www.jomec.co.uk/blog/wp-admin/%20http:/www.lbc.co.uk/incredibly-awkward-interview-with-natalie-bennett-105384">LBC’s Nick Ferrari</a> in February she elicited widespread sympathy from both commentators and the general public. Her failures to communicate were met with offers of a hug – the subtext of that sympathy disturbed Radhika Sanghani in the Telegraph who wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I felt sorry for Bennett too, but I can’t help thinking that this collective reaction is gendered. Would we really want to give David Cameron a hug if he failed to explain his policies?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The key thing to consider amidst all this sexist coverage is that it is, broadly, all there is: analysis from <a href="http://blog.lboro.ac.uk/general-election/media-coverage-of-the-2015-general-election-report-2/">Loughborough University</a> has found that women account for less than one in five of the individuals featured in election news coverage and that the second most prominent woman after Nicola Sturgeon is Samantha Cameron – more attention paid to a leader’s wife than prominent female politicians from all parties bar one.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79462/original/image-20150427-18128-uzj52d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The important point to remember is that the sort of coverage afforded to Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett is entirely to be expected. What the examples above illustrate is the oft-stated tenet that sexual oppression or prejudice in democratic societies is normalised by the prevailing social structure. Women politicians are women in the public eye, yes, but equally subject to the same depressingly familiar tropes and clichés that everyday sexism highlights with weary regularity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In a recent interview with Scottish Television’s Debi Edwards, the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon spoke about the sexism she routinely encounters. Referring to the fact that her appearance is regularly…John Jewell, Director of Undergraduate Studies, School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/404092015-04-20T17:02:57Z2015-04-20T17:02:57ZFact Check: how much of the UK budget is spent on defence?<blockquote>
<p>We already spend 6% of our budget on defence. I think that that proportion can be spent more wisely.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru leader, during the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05r87pr/bbc-election-debate-2015">BBC Challenger’s debate</a></strong>. </p>
<p>The claim that the UK spends 6% of its national budget on defence can be readily checked. Looking at past expenditure, the claim was on the low side: the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/391109/20141212-Departmental-ResourcesJM_Version_7-U.pdf">actual figure for 2013-2014</a> put defence spending at 7.5% of UK public expenditure – or £49.9 billion of a total £664.1 billion.</p>
<p>Plaid Cymru have pointed to the government’s total managed expenditure, which <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/330717/PESA_2014_-_print.pdf">was at £714.3 billion</a> in 2013-14, putting the percentage spent on defence 7%. </p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/416330/47881_Budget_2015_Web_Accessible.pdf">2015 budget</a>, chancellor George Osborne set out figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility looking at the proportion of £743 billion in total managed expenditure for 2015-16 spent on different sectors. Defence spending is estimated at £45 billion – just over 6% of the total.</p>
<p>However, defence spending data is usually presented differently, with the share of GDP often used as an indicator of a nation’s defence burden. In 2014, UK defence <a href="http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database">spending was at 2.2% of GDP</a>, according to the 2015 SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. </p>
<p>In the UK, the long-term trend for defence spending as a share of GDP has been downwards. In 1953, during the Korean War, the UK share was 9.9%; by 1982, during the Falklands conflict, it was 5.3% and at the end of the Cold War in 1990, it stood at 3.8%. The declining share figures have resulted from a succession of defence reviews as the UK has adjusted its role and commitments. </p>
<p>The UK’s 2014 share figure compares favourably with other NATO nations as the graph below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The relatively high share of GDP spent by the UK on defence reflects the country’s world military role. This has led to the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent (Trident), nuclear-powered submarines, Type 45 destroyer warships, aircraft carriers, F-35 carrier-based aircraft together with strategic air tankers, Typhoon jets, heavy lift and attack helicopters and an army with an expeditionary role. </p>
<p>These are costly capabilities. For example, the Typhoon programme <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-defence-statistics-compendium-2014">will cost</a> £18.1 billion, the strategic air tanker £11.4 billion, the Astute submarines £9.4 billion and the total equipment procurement programme is estimated to cost some £69 billion between 2014 and 2024. </p>
<p>The share of GDP spent on defence is just one measure of a nation’s defence effort. Other measures include the level of defence spending in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the numbers of military personnel and the numbers of front-line equipment such as fast jet squadrons, warships and tanks. International comparisons can be made using the levels of defence spending in real terms as shown in the table below. On this basis, the UK ranks sixth in the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>However, levels of defence spending and the share of GDP do not measure UK defence output in the form of peace, protection and security. There is a complete absence of any indicator of the monetary value of defence output for any nation in the world. Instead, defence output is often assumed to be equivalent to defence expenditure. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The claim that the UK spends 6% of its budget on defence is on the low side and for 2013-14, it was actually 7%. Going by OBR estimations, the UK could spend 6% of its public expenditure for 2015-16 on defence. But usually, defence burdens are measured by the share of national output or GDP spent on defence, rather than shares of the national budget. </p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This response to the question is careful and I agree with the verdict. At first sight the 6% figure looks high because most of the debate in the election has been around the commitment to spend <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31857044">2% of GDP</a> on defence made to NATO. But the 2% is a percentage of GDP and the 6% is a percentage of the budget: government expenditure. The difference indicates the importance of knowing what is in the bottom line of a percentage. </p>
<p>Whether that money could be spent more wisely is a matter of judgement and there has been considerable debate about the appropriate structure of the forces: how much should be spent on army, navy and air force. And within those totals, there are also debates on the relative importance of different elements such as Trident replacement and purchase of F35 aircraft for the carriers. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated on April 21 with additional information on total managed expenditure for 2013-14.</em> </p>
<div class="callout">The Conversation is fact checking political statements in the lead-up to the May UK general election. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert reviews an anonymous copy of the article.<br><br><a href="https://theconversation.com/factchecks/new">Click here to request a check</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible. You can also email factcheck@theconversation.com </div><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood has questioned whether the UK should spent 6% of its budget on defence. Has she got her numbers right?Keith Hartley, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/398892015-04-10T15:44:00Z2015-04-10T15:44:00ZManifesto Check: no shocks in Plaid Cymru’s green energy nationalism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77660/original/image-20150410-2114-1ji85dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's an energised debate over power sources in Wales. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://images.pressassociation.com/meta/2.10814632.html">Benjamin Wright/PA Archive</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy and the environment are clearly not Plaid Cymru’s highest priorities, but as in other policy areas, the party argues that the devolution of power to Wales would help. </p>
<p>Most of Plaid’s policies are fairly standard. The party’s encouragement of more renewable energy and greater energy efficiency is nothing new: since 1990, British governments of all political stripes have been <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/increasing-the-use-of-low-carbon-technologies">taking steps to boost renewable energy</a> and improve energy efficiency. </p>
<p>Even Plaid’s stress on using tidal lagoons to generate electricity is hardly controversial. The Severn Estuary has huge tides, and the proposed lagoons would be far less costly and far less environmentally damaging than the <a href="http://www.greenwisebusiness.co.uk/news/government-rejects-25bn-severn-tidal-barrage-proposal-4088.aspx#.VSYwqVPF8zE">recently rejected Severn Barrage</a> across the estuary. </p>
<p>The rejection of nuclear power does distinguish Plaid Cymru from the major parties, but again is nothing out of the ordinary: even the conservative German government <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13592208">rejected nuclear power</a> following the <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident/">nuclear accident at Fukushima</a> in Japan. On fracking, Plaid appears to want it both ways. The party supports a moratorium on the issue, while leaving the door open, provided that locals approve and there is a favourable environmental assessment.</p>
<h2>Give it to Wales</h2>
<p>It is hardly surprising that a Welsh nationalist party promises to transfer more powers to Wales. Plaid wants to reverse the centralisation of planning powers over large energy infrastructure projects created by the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/29/pdfs/ukpga_20080029_en.pdf">2008 Planning Act</a> and developed – slightly ironically – by the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/20/contents/enacted">2011 Localism Act</a>. Indeed, increased control and benefits at Welsh and local levels appear to be the defining features of Plaid’s energy policy, compared with its rather conventional credentials relating to climate and the environment. </p>
<p>There is also the pledge to set up a non-profit energy company in Wales, though whether this would bring “better value for money” is unclear. But such a company could enable the Welsh government to boost renewable energy and energy efficiency, by exerting more control over the energy sector in Wales. </p>
<p>Another more radical policy is the proposal to create a Welsh national energy grid, although whether this could secure energy transmission in Wales without disrupting the flexibility and economies of scale of the UK-wide national grid is unclear. Perhaps the bigger question is whether this rather technical policy will enthuse or befuddle Welsh voters. One suspects that it won’t be a vote-winner.</p>
<h2>The politics of power</h2>
<p>Plaid Cymru policies are only likely to be implemented at Westminster if an incoming Labour government became dependent on their votes for a majority. This is a bigger possibility than it might seem as Plaid Cymru could negotiate <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-yellow-green-and-tartan-colour-clash-or-political-dream-team-38559">en bloc with the SNP and Greens</a>. </p>
<p>In such a case, Plaid Cymru’s opposition to new nuclear power stations might prevail, due to SNP and Green opposition to nuclear power and <a href="http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/documents/research/socialsciences/nuclearenergyfullreport.pdf">reluctance among energy companies</a> to commit to major investments in new nuclear stations. Currently, only one is on track to be built, and this only comes with massive subsidies, despite several years of encouragement by successive governments. Labour might also be prepared to place a moratorium on fracking, as this is not central to its economic policy. </p>
<p>On the other hand, Ed Miliband was part of the government that began centralising major energy infrastructure powers under the 2008 Planning Act. This was done to reduce the risk of local councils and voters blocking projects such as wind farms. So Miliband may well be unwilling to devolve these powers to Wales, unless failing to do so definitely jeopardised his chances of a parliamentary majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plaid looks left as energy manifesto fuels talk of a Green-SNP alliance.Hugh Compston, Professor of Climate Politics, Cardiff UniversityIan Bailey, Professor of Environmental Politics, University of PlymouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/395982015-04-09T13:39:15Z2015-04-09T13:39:15ZManifesto Check: Plaid bites off more than it can chew with ambitious food plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77334/original/image-20150408-18070-yy3zc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sheep farming would be protected by an Animal Welfare Commissioner</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheep_farming_in_Wales#/media/File:Springtime_scene_-_geograph.org.uk_-_383776.jpg">from en.wikipedia.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Plaid Cymru’s agricultural and food policy contains a mixed bag of EU-wide and domestic policies. The manifesto pledges continued support for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). CAP is an EU policy, which delivers financial support to farmers, as well as helping promote wider rural economic activity. It transfers approximately <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-funding/beneficiaries/shared/index_en.htm">£3 billion each year</a> to the UK. </p>
<p>This is mostly allocated toward <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-funding/financial-reports/index_en.htm">direct payments made to farmers</a> in support of their farming activities, which are called “pillar one” payments. In contrast, “pillar two” directs funds into a range of measures, including the promotion of environmentally-friendly agriculture and rural economic activities, as well as supporting measures to help farmers become more efficient – such as <a href="http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/plaid-cymru-woos-farmers-with-six-day-standstill-pledge.htm">investment into farms</a>.</p>
<p>Pillar one is, in the main, not differentiated locally. Pillar two is very different: each nation must produce a Rural Development Plan (RDP), setting out how the money available will be spent on different measures. The Welsh RDP for 2020 is not yet finalised.</p>
<h2>A gripe with the status quo</h2>
<p>Despite being called “common”, many CAP decisions are delegated to member states. <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP14-56/cap-reform-201420-eu-agreement-and-implementation-in-the-uk-and-in-ireland-updated">In the UK</a>, many are then delegated to the separate nations. A key theme in Plaid Cymru’s manifesto is its disagreement with decisions taken in the Welsh Assembly, and how the party would wish to do things differently, if in power. </p>
<p>One of the few local decision related to pillar one concerns “modulation”. This involves top-slicing some of the direct payments – pillar one – and moving the money into rural development – pillar two. Plaid Cymru disagrees with the current approach for two key reasons. </p>
<p>First, because direct payments are so important to Welsh farmers, it opposes the decision to maximise the amount modulated into rural development. Second, it disagrees over the allocation of money to different elements of rural development, wanting more to be spent promoting economic efficiency. These points are broadly consistent – if 80% of Welsh farmers rely on direct payments to keep farming, this raises questions about their efficiency. That said, it is difficult to know exactly how many farmers need the payments to keep farming.</p>
<p>Plaid’s claim that modulation took over <a href="http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/farming-funding-shake-up-set-announced-6506592">£250 million out of Wales’ rural economy</a> is misleading. It is taking money out of direct payments to farmers, but is still available to Wales’ rural economy via rural development measures. The difference is that with direct payments, farmers do not have to do anything extra to receive it; whereas with rural development, bids would have to be made for project funding. </p>
<p>It is clear that Plaid Cymru believe Welsh farmers are largely dependent on direct payments, and that Wales’ rural development money should focus on measures aimed at improving efficiency. Their manifesto indicates that they believe funding for the latter should not come at the expense of the former.</p>
<h2>Welsh meat for Wales!</h2>
<p>Money that is lost from Wales is part of the Red Meat Levy. This is collected from abattoirs and used locally to promote meat. But with much Welsh meat going to English abattoirs, that money does not go back to Meat Promotion Wales but to the English equivalent. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/groceries-code-adjudicator">Groceries Adjudicator oversees imbalances</a> in economic relationships between (large) supermarkets and (small) farmers. Strengthening their role would also give help to farmers in the marketplace.</p>
<p>The other measures also show Plaid Cymru’s support for Welsh agriculture. The European Protected Designation of Origin and Protected Geographical Indication schemes <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/quality/schemes/index_en.htm">offer protection and promotion to named products</a> from particular localities. With livestock farming particularly important, support for an Animal Welfare Commissioner – a proposal led by Plaid Cymru – also promotes the values of Welsh agriculture. So too is confronting food fraud (no more <a href="http://theconversation.com/horsemeat-scandal-was-a-damning-indictment-of-the-state-of-our-food-21490">horse meat sold as beef</a>!) and keeping agriculture GMO-free. </p>
<p>Yet it is not just about food producers. Consumers, especially the most vulnerable economically, would benefit from the proposed Food Waste Bill, which seeks to address the amount of food waste at the retail end of the food chain.</p>
<p>Overall, these measures represent a coherent set of goals for the promotion of Welsh agriculture. That said, Plaid Cymru’s ability to deliver on some measures is questionable. The party can continue to lobby for changes to the Red Meat Levy and push for a Food Waste Bill. But its ability to deliver changes to the modulation rate on direct payments – let alone to alter the policy priorities for spending within the next Rural Development Plan – are likely to be limited, within both the Welsh Assembly and the Westminster Parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Ackrill has received funding from The Leverhulme Trust and from the UK Economic and Social Research Council in support of his academic research on the EU Common Agricultural Policy. None of this work involved engagement with partisan party politics, and this article reflects his own expert opinion. </span></em></p>Plaid Cyrmu’s agricultural policies clash with Wales’ current course of action.Robert Ackrill, Professor of European Economics and Policy, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/397272015-04-02T22:28:14Z2015-04-02T22:28:14ZElection debate: Cameron coasts, Farage falls flat and Sturgeon steals the show<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76994/original/image-20150402-9335-d2v01r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The SNP and Plaid leaders worked together to show up the pack.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ITV</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It nearly didn’t happen, but for the first time ever, the British public has heard from seven party leaders in one TV debate. And for the first time ever, Natalie Bennett, Nigel Farage, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood were given a very public platform to debate with the main party leaders.</p>
<p>For weeks we have heard that the inclusion of the minor parties was a strategic move by David Cameron; that their inclusion would dilute the impact of a Labour leader who would undoubtedly have done his homework. And indeed, the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/01/david-cameron-aims-to-highlight-risk-of-political-chaos-in-leaders-tv-debate">pre-debate chatter</a> ahead of the broadcast cited Farage and Cameron as the most likely winners.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://theconversation.com/red-yellow-green-and-tartan-colour-clash-or-political-dream-team-38559">I argued last month</a>, the most obvious common ground between the small parties is their anti-austerity rhetoric. And the three women played heavily on that during the two-hour show.</p>
<p>As the first of the three to speak, Bennett set the scene. She argued that voters “deserve better” than the current austerity package on offer. Sturgeon built on this, highlighting the “positive change” the SNP could bring to austerity Britain. It was also a big feature of their closing statements – Sturgeon arguing that the UK can’t afford any more cuts and Bennett stressing that austerity was a choice, rather than a certainty.</p>
<h2>Three-pronged attack</h2>
<p>Sturgeon was clearly the leader of the three, with the Plaid and Green leaders rallying around throughout. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76997/original/image-20150402-9339-lpc93p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Wood and Sturgeon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ITV</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>At times the gender divide was striking. Sturgeon for instance argued that “none of these guys can be trusted on tuition fees”. In 2010 the catchphrase of the debate was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/16/leaders-tv-debates-jonathan-freedland">“I agree with Nick”</a>’, but the theme of this leader debate was very much “I agree with Nicola”. Afterwards, Sturgeon continued this solidarity, <a href="https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/583745747499253761">tweeting her support</a> for her “friend” Leanne Wood. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/apr/02/leaders-debate-cameron-and-miliband-go-head-to-head-with-other-parties-live#block-551db556e4b0b3f858ca67f1">average of the three post-debate polls</a> showed the benefits of this strategy. Bennett and Wood received very modest support, with just 4% and 3% rating them as the winner, while Sturgeon forged ahead with 22%. Combined, their 29% is far above that of either Cameron or Miliband.</p>
<h2>Old guard on the back foot</h2>
<p>Cameron looked very confident in his second appearance on a live pre-election show, but he didn’t really engage with the three women. And he didn’t need to. His eyes were on Miliband.</p>
<p>The Labour leader has <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11475189/Ed-Miliband-rules-out-formal-coalition-with-SNP.html">already ruled out a coalition</a> with the SNP and seemed to be trying to sweep the issue under the carpet. He directed most of his attacks at Cameron, preventing Sturgeon and her colleagues from grabbing any more of the limelight than they already had.</p>
<p>The SNP leader seemed content with this – and it fit nicely with her tactic of emphasising that she disagrees with all of the three main parties. Once again, she was backed up by Wood and Bennett who were also at pains to emphasise that they were very different to the traditional political parties. </p>
<p>By far the worst performance of the night came from Nigel Farage. The UKIP leader was predicted to do well – and he didn’t fare too badly in the post debate polls. But his strategy was poor. The tunnel vision approach of concentrating solely on Europe was too predictable. At one point Sturgeon even quipped that there was simply nothing he wouldn’t blame on immigrants. His monomania may help retain the UKIP vote, but it certainly won’t increase it.</p>
<p>All in all, Farage was very effectively cut out by Sturgeon, Bennett and Wood. The three now seem to be playing the opposition game a lot more effectively than he can.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
It nearly didn’t happen, but for the first time ever, the British public has heard from seven party leaders in one TV debate. And for the first time ever, Natalie Bennett, Nigel Farage, Nicola Sturgeon…Louise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/386122015-03-25T10:43:07Z2015-03-25T10:43:07ZInvisible in 2010, women must take centre stage this election<p>Women represent the majority of all voters. There are many senior women in politics. The deputy leader of the Labour Party is a woman (Harriet Harman); the first minister of Scotland is a woman (Nicola Sturgeon); the leaders of the Greens (Natalie Bennett) and Plaid Cymru (Leanne Wood) are women; and the next leader of the Conservative Party may very well be a woman if Theresa May gets her way.</p>
<p>So why do women become so invisible as soon as a general election begins?
OK, maybe “invisible” is an exaggeration. There was plenty of coverage at the last election of the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7558842/Election-2010-the-battle-of-the-leaders-wives.html">leaders’ wives</a>. We saw more discussion of <a href="http://fashion.telegraph.co.uk/article/TMG7685641/General-Election-2010-The-war-of-the-wardrobes.html">Sam Cam’s wardrobe</a> than we did of the many women in the outgoing Labour frontbench. There was also some discussion of current politicians’ appearance and outfits. </p>
<p>Election hopefuls frequently referred to “<a href="http://www.mumsnet.com/">mumsnet</a>”, but in a way that felt <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/09/mumsnet-election-political-parties">staged rather than sincere</a>. And the grand finale of the election was initiated by a “<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8649012.stm">bigoted woman</a>” who inadvertently destroyed any remaining hopes that Gordon Brown held of remaining prime minister.</p>
<p>So women are mothers, wives, decorative ornaments and career killers. But, as <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/63/4/760.abstract">Rosie Campbell and Sarah Childs</a> note, in the 2010 election women struggled to get taken seriously as politicians and voters. The proportion of women in parliament barely increased; women were excluded from the coalition negotiations between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats; and women remained a fairly small minority within the cabinet (with the Lib Dems never having a female cabinet member). The policies that emerged from the government that was elected have had a disproportionately <a href="http://wbg.org.uk/other-resources/impact-of-austerity/">negative impact</a> on women.</p>
<h2>Trivialising women</h2>
<p>There are several reasons to explain why women remained so invisible in 2010. The first is the growing focus on party leaders at the expense of all other party figures. The trend was consolidated in 2010 by the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2011.562613#.VP20uPmsVQE">leadership debates</a>, which became the focal point of the campaign and featured three male party leaders (Cameron, Clegg and Brown). The exaggerated emphasis on the leaders explains why their wives got more attention than their leading female colleagues.</p>
<p>The second is the general tendency of the media to marginalise and trivialise female politicians. <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Cracking-Highest-Glass-Ceiling-Comparison/dp/0313382484">Journalists worldwide</a> are guilty of focusing on style (appearance) over substance (policies), of giving women less coverage than their male counterparts, and of bestowing less gravitas upon women than men. In the UK, the media reduced women to decorative ornaments belonging to the various leaders, from <a href="http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/1589/">Blair’s Babes and Gordon’s Gals</a> to <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2693150/Camerons-cuties-make-stylish-presence-felt-march-Downing-Street-dramatic-reshuffle.html">Cameron’s Cuties and Nick’s Nymphets</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://hij.sagepub.com/content/18/1/3.short">study</a> of media coverage of the 2010 UK election by Karen Ross and colleagues found that women received significantly less coverage overall than men, and the coverage that they did receive was concentrated in fewer stories, with more emphasis on trivial details or on women in a supporting role to men. When women did receive serious coverage, it tended to be within a narrow focus on women’s issues, reducing the perceived relevance of female politicians to the wider political debate, from which they were largely excluded. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/media/2014/04/it-s-2014-yet-media-and-politics-still-man-s-game">Another study</a> found that media coverage of women politicians was also disproportionately negative, as well as focused primarily on women’s sexuality.</p>
<p>The world of politics remains a male-dominated environment that is unwelcoming to women. There are relatively few women in senior roles, and women comprise <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN01250/women-in-parliament-and-government">just over a fifth of MPs</a>. This results in a masculine culture and a public impression of politics as a man’s world.</p>
<h2>Hope for 2015</h2>
<p>Will all of this change in 2015? Sadly, probably not all that much. But there will undoubtedly be some progress; the <a href="http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/Women%20in%20Westminster%20FINAL.pdf">Electoral Reform Society</a> predict that the proportion of women elected will rise to 29.5% – still low, but a seven percentage point increase on current levels. The BBC will host a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30955379">seven-party leadership debate</a>, in which three of the leaders will be women. If Cameron loses, there must surely be some coverage of May as his likely successor. Labour’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31412425">pink bus</a>, while controversial, is at least putting <a href="http://theconversation.com/pink-stinks-but-labours-bus-is-a-welcome-sight-on-the-road-37507">women on the map</a>; one thing that bus certainly is not is invisible. </p>
<p>But we need much more. We need more women in leadership roles, and we need more women on the backbenches. We need fewer stories about <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2693563/Now-win-election-PM-tells-new-girls-including-Esther-McVey-queen-Downing-Street-catwalk.html">what female MPs are wearing</a>, and more stories about the things that actually matter to women: from job opportunities to protection from violence, from affordable childcare to pension reform. </p>
<p>It’s time for the country’s silent majority to make its voice heard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The last election was a low point for women in British politics.Rainbow Murray, Reader, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.