tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/malaysia-airlines-2575/articlesMalaysia Airlines – The Conversation2024-03-08T11:34:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252922024-03-08T11:34:27Z2024-03-08T11:34:27ZFlight MH370 is still missing after ten years – forensic experts explain what we know and why we haven’t found the plane<p>It has been ten years since Malaysian airlines flight MH370, carrying 239 passengers and crew on board, disappeared less than one hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur on 8 March 2014. It has become one of the great unsolved mysteries of modern times and is a puzzle that has remained resolutely unsolved. </p>
<p>Theories abound on the flight’s disappearance and current location of the wreckage. Unusually, all communications aboard the plane were switched off shortly after take-off. </p>
<p>Intermittent satellite location information subsequently suggested <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/inmarsat-releases-data-showing-mh370-definitely-went-south.html">it was flown south on a very different flight path</a> than expected, to a remote and deep ocean area of the Southern Indian Ocean before contact was lost.</p>
<p>When actively searching for MH370, sophisticated international surveillance aircraft initially conducted over 300 flights to visually look for plane debris on the surface. Then surface and submersible vehicles conducted further surveys, searching over 120,000 sq km of ocean before ending the search in 2017. </p>
<p>The effort to find MH370 became one of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10863605/MH370-search-becomes-most-expensive-aviation-hunt-in-history-yet-still-no-clues.html">most expensive aviation searches in history</a>. These surveys used both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonar">sonar</a> (active acoustic instruments to image the sea floor to locate the aircraft), and also listening devices to pick up the aircraft’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_recorder">flight data recorder</a>. </p>
<p>Confirmed MH370 plane debris were found on Reunion Island in July 2015, and off the coast of Mozambique in February 2016, which was consistent with what we know about ocean currents. In 2018, OceanInfinity, a private exploration company, <a href="https://oceaninfinity.com/ocean-infinity-to-continue-search-for-missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370/">also searched 25,000 sq km</a> but without success.</p>
<p>Since then, a mixture of highly trained experts and members of the public have sought to assist the <a href="https://www.mh370search.com/">search</a>. These efforts have varied from simple to really advanced data analysis. They have attempted to map the locations and timings of plane debris, and other maritime debris, as well as model drift currents. In doing so, they are attempting to reconstruct where these may have originated from, which is no small task. </p>
<p>Analysis of the MH370 flight path has been pieced together from two different types of radar – primary and secondary – as well as the intermittent data “pings” from the plane to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inmarsat">Inmarsat</a> satellite. The results suggest that it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870467">diverted south from its intended flight path</a>.</p>
<p>Another technique called weak signal propagation (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software)">WSPR</a> data (a way of using radio emission to track objects such as planes), had defined a specific but very large search area, some of which has already been searched.</p>
<p>Available hydroacoustic data (based on the way sound propagates in water) of the sea floor has also been analysed. However, only a relatively small area was covered and the marine sea floor in this region can be very rugged. There are deep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966112200163X">submarine canyons</a> that can hide objects much bigger than a plane. </p>
<p>Lessons from studying past flight disasters also informed the search. These included the 2009 Yemenia plane crash in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<h2>Recovery operation</h2>
<p>For inland or coastal water searches, a phased investigation strategy is suggested as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.04.012">best practice</a>, where investigators look to identify water depths, major current strengths and directions, together with pre-existing site information, before specialist search teams are employed using methods, equipment configurations and personnel that have all been accredited.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-science-is-helping-the-police-search-for-bodies-in-water-73931">How science is helping the police search for bodies in water</a>
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<p>However this reliance on technology can be problematic. Even in small waterways, the presence of vegetation in the search area or a target buried by sediment can make these searches difficult.</p>
<p>Much of the Southern Indian Ocean sea floor is rugged and relatively unmapped, with <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/deepest-points-of-the-indian-ocean-and-southern-ocean-revealed/">water depths of up to 7.4km</a>. It’s away from regular shipping lanes and commercial flight patterns, with few fishing boats, no significant land masses and some of the worst winds and weather in the world. These factors also make it a very challenging area to search. </p>
<p>In deep water (more than 2km to 3km) deploying sonar is cumbersome and prohibitively expensive. It also takes a long time to generate data. A major challenge for scanning technologies is achieving accuracy at these kinds of depths due to the scattering of the signal caused by uneven, especially rocky substrates on the sea floor.</p>
<p>The development of more advanced autonomous submersible vehicles may hold the
key to finding MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean, along with post-processing of
raw data which can clarify what can be attributed to rocks as well as sea-floor
hummocks and pockets. </p>
<p>This can distinguish between the sea floor and the objects being searched for. However, the area where MH370 disappeared is vast, meaning future searches will remain just as challenging as when the plane first went missing in 2014.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pringle receives funding from the HLF, the Nuffield Foundation, Royal Society, NERC, EPSRC and EU Horizon2020. He is affiliated with the Geological Society of London. Jamie works for Keele University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alastair Ruffell receives funding from: ProjectBoost (IntertradeIreland); Arts & Humanities Research Council; Natural Environment Research Council; Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Morgan has received funding from the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p>Despite advanced technology and search techniques the rugged seafloor can hide objects much larger than a plane.Jamie Pringle, Reader in Forensic Geoscience, Keele UniversityAlastair Ruffell, Reader, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University BelfastRuth Morgan, Vice Dean Engineering (Interdisciplinarity Entrepreneurship), Professor of Crime and Forensic Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1191552019-06-20T05:42:47Z2019-06-20T05:42:47ZMH17 charges: who the suspects are, what they’re charged with, and what happens next<p>Four men – three Russians and one Ukrainian – will be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-19/mh17-downing-airline-ukraine-suspects-charges-loom/11224216">charged</a> in relation to the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which killed all <a href="https://theconversation.com/much-more-to-be-done-before-mh17-findings-can-support-a-war-crime-trial-49054">298 passengers and crew</a> on board. </p>
<p>Dutch prosecutors will launch a criminal trial in The Hague on March 9, 2020. But the accused are beyond the jurisdiction of the court, and will most likely be tried <em>in absentia.</em> This means the accused will not be physically present in the court room.</p>
<p>The prosecutors argue the four accused were jointly responsible for obtaining a BUK TELAR missile launcher (a launcher for self-propelled, surface-to-air missiles allegedly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/europe/russia-malaysia-airlines-ukraine-missile.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&login=email&auth=login-email">owned by the Russian military</a>) in the city of Kursk, and launching it from Ukraine. </p>
<p>They say the four men are responsible for the atrocity because they had the intention to shoot down an aircraft, and obtained the missile launcher for that purpose.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-with-parliament-dissolved-new-president-must-now-get-serious-heres-how-117451">Ukraine: with parliament dissolved, new president must now get serious – here's how</a>
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<p>While investigators have not accused any suspects of actually firing the missile, they say in future they may identify others with that responsibility.</p>
<p>For the victims and their loved ones, these Dutch criminal trials present the best hope of legal acknowledgement for the tragedy.</p>
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<h2>The MH17 atrocity</h2>
<p>On July 17, 2014, flight MH17 was travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/18/mh17-twenty-seven-australians-were-on-board-crashed-malaysian-plane">shot down</a> over Ukraine. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-crash/@96068/jit-flight-mh17-shot/">Joint Investigative Team</a> (JIT), led by Dutch authorities and comprising investigators from Malaysia, Australia, Belgium and Ukraine, concluded in 2016 that the flight was shot down by a Russian BUK missile. </p>
<p>The JIT identified the launch location as a field in eastern Ukraine, which at the time was in territory controlled by pro-Russian fighters.</p>
<p>The countries central to the investigation – including Australia, which lost 38 people – and the victims’ families have explored a range of legal strategies to assign blame for the attack. </p>
<p>Then Foreign Minister Julie Bishop initially proposed a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/foreign-affairs/julie-bishop-urges-mh17-war-crimes-tribunal/news-story/b772ca0bb6bd28715819909f71c2be56">war crimes trial</a> for MH17, but this was <a href="https://russia-direct.org/opinion/why-russia-opposes-international-tribunal-mh17">vetoed</a> by Russia in the UN Security Council. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://theconversation.com/challenges-persist-for-multiple-legal-actions-regarding-mh17-77722">civil claims</a> on behalf of victims’ families are ongoing before the European Court of Human Rights. </p>
<p>And <a href="http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/russias-justification-for-mh17-and-other-surreal-moments-at-icj/">hearings</a> are ongoing before the International Court of Justice, where Ukraine seeks to <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/en/case/166">make a case</a> against Russia. Ukraine cites the MH17 atrocity as characteristic of broader <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/166/19314.pdf">Russian aggression</a> and lack of respect for Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. </p>
<h2>Russia’s response</h2>
<p>The Russian Foreign Ministry <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-19/mh17-downing-airline-ukraine-suspects-charges-loom/11224216">rejected</a> this week’s announcement, in line with its earlier rejections of the JIT conclusions. It said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Once again, absolutely groundless accusations are being made against the Russian side, aimed at discrediting the Russian Federation in the eyes of the international community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier called the crash a “terrible tragedy”, but said Russia bore <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/netherlands-set-to-prosecute-suspects-in-mh17-airliner-downing">no responsibility</a> for it. </p>
<p>Russian officials have claimed they were prepared to assist the investigation but had been “<a href="https://www.nst.com.my/world/2019/06/497652/moscow-says-mh17-charges-based-unfounded-allegations">frozen out</a>” of it.</p>
<h2>Who are the accused?</h2>
<p>Three of the four <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/world/europe/mh17-crash.html?searchResultPosition=3">accused</a> are Russian nationals, believed to be living in Russia. </p>
<p>Igor Girkin is a former colonel in the Russian security service. At the time of the atrocity, Girkin was the minister of defence in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, a pro-Russian separatist region of Ukraine. </p>
<p>The other two Russian accused, Sergey Dubinsky and Oleg Pulatov, are former Russian military intelligence agents who worked under Girkin.</p>
<p>Leonid Kharchenko is the only Ukrainian national accused. Investigators are not certain of his current location. At the time of the atrocity, Kharchenko led a separatist combat unit. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-crash/@106096/prosecution-four/">specific charges</a> in relation to the four named suspects will be: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Causing the crash of flight MH17, resulting in the death of all persons on board, punishable pursuant to Article 168 of the Dutch Criminal Code</p></li>
<li><p>The murder of the 298 persons on board of flight MH17, punishable pursuant to Article 289 of the Dutch Criminal Code.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The investigation is ongoing and continues to call for witnesses to assist. </p>
<h2>What are the prospects for the trial?</h2>
<p>Dutch investigators will issue international arrest warrants for the four accused and place them on international wanted lists. But they won’t issue extradition requests because they know already that no extradition of nationals is available under the Ukrainian or Russian constitutions. </p>
<p>It seems impossible for the Dutch court to gain actual jurisdiction over the Russian accused. Potentially, should Ukrainian authorities apprehend Kharchenko, he could be tried via <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/world/2018/06/379470/dutch-mps-approve-ukraine-treaty-mh17-trial">video-link</a>. </p>
<p>The Netherlands and Ukraine have entered into an agreement that would permit such an arrangement and - should Kharchenko be convicted - allow for his imprisonment in Ukraine. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/challenges-persist-for-multiple-legal-actions-regarding-mh17-77722">Challenges persist for multiple legal actions regarding MH17</a>
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<p>The charges and any penalties originate in Dutch, rather than international, criminal law. Convictions for murder or the intentional downing of an aircraft could result in sentences of up to life imprisonment. </p>
<p>It’s fair to question the value of a prosecution without a court having actual jurisdiction over the accused. The only real answer is that such a trial would enable the presentation and adjudication of evidence and the judgement of a court as to whether charges are made out. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280374/original/file-20190620-171183-d9jjse.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A memorial for the victims of MH17 in the Donetsk region, Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>As time goes, the chances of successful prosecutions decline. Meanwhile, interested countries and the victims’ families continue to call for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-05/lockerbie-no-model-for-the-effective-prosecution-of-mh17/7904644">legal redress</a> for the atrocity.</p>
<p>It is also legitimate to ask whether a court can ensure a <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx">fair trial</a> for accused persons tried <em>in absentia.</em> </p>
<p>Although it is not explicitly prohibited by international human rights law, the absence of defendants and presumably any legal representative from the courtroom means the accused will not hear the evidence against them or have the ability to present a defence. </p>
<p>Given the four named accused are beyond the actual jurisdiction of the Dutch courts, it can be argued that they (and, at least in the case of Russia, their country) are wilfully avoiding the process of justice. This may be, for some or many observers, sufficient justification for trying them in their absence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Maguire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Families of the 298 victims may, at last, see justice after five years.Amy Maguire, Associate Professor, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1088702019-01-04T11:33:50Z2019-01-04T11:33:50ZAmelia Earhart would have a hard time disappearing in 2019<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251049/original/file-20181217-185246-2ppe1n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1024%2C323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Model 10-E Electra, with advanced navigation equipment mounted above the cockpit.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Earhart-electra_10.jpg">USAF/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="https://www.ameliaearhart.com/">Amelia Earhart</a> took off in 1937 to fly around the world, people had been flying airplanes for only about 35 years. When she tried to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Amelia-Earhart">fly across the Pacific</a>, she – and the world – knew it was risky. She didn’t make it, and was <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780765324832">declared dead</a> in January 1939. In the 80 years since then, many other planes have been <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missing_aircraft">lost around the world</a> and never found again – including the 2014 disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, over the Indian Ocean.</p>
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<span class="caption">Amelia Earhart, missing and declared dead Jan. 5, 1939.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Amelia_Earhart_standing_under_nose_of_her_Lockheed_Model_10-E_Electra,_small.jpg">Underwood & Underwood/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
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<p>As flight instructors and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nAyrczcAAAAJ&hl=en">aviation industry professionals</a>, we know that increasingly advanced technologies are getting better at tracking planes, even across great expanses of water far from land. These systems allow aircraft to navigate much more easily, and many allow real-time flight tracking across much of the globe.</p>
<h2>Getting from place to place</h2>
<p>From the early years of aviation up until about 2000, the main way pilots navigated was by playing connect-the-dots across a map. They would use radio direction-finding equipment to follow a route from an airport to a radio-transmitting beacon at a fixed location, and then from beacon to beacon until reaching the destination airport. Various technologies made that process easier, but the concept was still the same. That system is still in use, but decreasingly so as new technologies replace it.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251050/original/file-20181217-185249-v4xsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ground-based radio beacons are found at airports and along major flight routes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VOR_Ngurah_Rai_Airport.jpg">Sabung.hamster/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>In the first few years of the 21st century, pilots for major airlines began to use the United States’ Global Positioning System and other similar systems that use signals from orbiting satellites to calculate the plane’s position. GPS is more accurate, letting pilots land easily in bad weather conditions, without the need for expensive ground-based radio transmitters. Satellite navigation also lets pilots fly more directly between destinations, because they need not follow the routes from one radio beacon to the next.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251051/original/file-20181217-185237-18kefqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A diagram of what a constellation of position-finding satellites looks like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GPS-constellation-3D-NOAA.jpg">NOAA/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are six satellite-based navigation systems in operation: <a href="https://www.gps.gov">GPS</a>, run by the United States; <a href="https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Navigation/Galileo/Galileo_satellites">Galileo</a>, run by the European Union and the European Space Agency; and the Russian <a href="https://www.glonass-iac.ru/en/">GLONASS</a> cover the whole planet, and China’s <a href="http://en.beidou.gov.cn/">BeiDou</a> system is expected to span the globe by 2020. India’s <a href="https://www.isro.gov.in/irnss-programme">NAVIC</a> covers the Indian Ocean and nearby areas; Japan has begun operating the <a href="http://qzss.go.jp/en/">QZSS</a> system to improve navigation in the Pacific.</p>
<p>The systems <a href="https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/12/16/us-air-force-set-to-launch-1st-next-generation-gps-satellite/">operate independently</a> of each other, but some satellite navigation receivers can merge <a href="https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2018-11-26/fcc-allows-galileo-augment-gps-us">data from more than one of them</a> simultaneously, providing pilots with extremely accurate information about where they are. That can help them get where they’re going, rather than going missing.</p>
<h2>Tracking aircraft</h2>
<p>When planes do get lost, the company or country responsible for them often starts searching; some efforts, like the search for MH 370, include many nations and businesses. </p>
<p>When all is going well, most planes are tracked by radar, which can also help air traffic controllers prevent midair collisions and give pilots directions around severe weather. When planes fly beyond the range of land-based radar, like on long-haul trips over oceans, though, they’re tracked using a method devised more than 70 years ago: Pilots periodically radio air traffic control with reports on where they are, what altitude they’re flying at and what their next navigation landmark is.</p>
<p>Over the past few years, a new method has been rolling out around the world. Called “<a href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/programs/adsb/">Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast</a>,” the system <a href="https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Automatic_Dependent_Surveillance_Broadcast_(ADS-B)">sends automatic position reports</a> from airplanes to air traffic controllers and nearby aircraft, so everyone knows who’s where and avoids collisions. By 2020, the FAA will require <a href="https://www.aopa.org/go-fly/aircraft-and-ownership/ads-b/where-is-ads-b-out-required">most aircraft in the U.S.</a> to have an ADS-B system, which is already <a href="https://jdasolutions.aero/blog/ads-b-update-bits-information-around-world/">mandatory in several other countries</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251058/original/file-20181217-185237-18no9x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coverage for ADS-B service in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/programs/adsb/coverageMap/">FAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the moment, though, ADS-B flight tracking doesn’t cover remote areas of the world because it depends on ground-based receivers to collect the information from planes. A <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/2018/01/19/space-based-ads-b-undergoes-successful-testing/">space-based receiver system</a> is being tested, which could eventually cover the entire planet.</p>
<p>In addition, many airplane manufacturers sell equipment that includes monitoring and tracking software: for instance, to analyze engine performance and spot problems before they become severe. Some of this equipment can transmit real-time data on the location of the aircraft while it’s in flight. Data from those systems were used in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-26544554">search for MH 370</a>, and also <a href="https://www.aviationtoday.com/2015/03/25/germanwings-crash-investigation-focused-on-locating-flight-data-recorder/">gave investigators early insight</a> into the 2015 Germanwings 9525 crash in the French Alps, before the plane’s “black box” flight data recorder was found.</p>
<p>GPS, ADS-B and other navigation and tracking systems might have helped save, or at least find, Amelia Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan – either by preventing them from getting lost in the first place or by directing rescuers to their location after the plane went down. Eight decades later, planes still go missing – but it’s getting harder to fly off the map.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eight decades after missing aviator Amelia Earhart was declared dead, technologies still don’t quite track every airplane all over the globe.Brian Strzempkowski, Assistant Director, Center for Aviation Studies, The Ohio State UniversityShawn Pruchnicki, Lecturer, Center for Aviation Studies, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/860022017-10-24T09:03:26Z2017-10-24T09:03:26ZNew tool to track underwater acoustic waves could find MH370<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191482/original/file-20171023-1738-1a9ik4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/underwater-wave-733264549?src=90_EqEFMrsHt2B4oJ9xi2w-1-7">Melissa Burovac/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Looking at the ocean, a lake, or even a pond, you may wonder what happens to the waves you see when they “disappear”. These surface waves tend to become smaller and smaller until you can’t see them anymore. But they keep travelling through the water at a lower depth. These “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0997754614001253">acoustic-gravity waves</a>” can travel for thousands of kilometres undisturbed, and even cross an entire ocean. </p>
<p>These compression waves are generated by a sudden change in the water pressure. They can be caused by anything from submarines, earthquakes and landslides, to falling meteorites or other objects impacting the sea surface. And although they are “acoustic” waves, they are below the range of human hearing – the only way to pick up and record them is using hydrophones, special microphones that work underwater. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ctbto.org/">Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation</a> (CTBTO) has hydrophone stations dotted in oceans across the world. They are used by the organisation to detect shock waves that may be a consequence of an underwater nuclear test – but we have found <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14177-3">a way to use these signals</a>, to find where and when acoustic waves are originally generated.</p>
<h2>Searching with sound</h2>
<p>Some of the organisation’s stations, such as HA01, located off Cape Leeuwin in south-west Australia, have three hydrophones. This configuration lets us calculate the direction of the waves quite accurately because the incoming waves hit the hydrophones in a particular order, similar to how soundwaves hit human ears. But unlike sounds processed by our brain, hydrophones alone cannot easily tell how far away the event was generated, or what generated it.</p>
<p>To do this, we used mathematical tools which consider the way acoustic-gravity waves behave. As these waves travel through the water, <a href="http://physics.usask.ca/%7Ehirose/ep225/animation/dispersion/anim-dispersion.html">they disperse</a>. This means that groups of waves created by a source start off being close together, but tend to become more spread apart as they travel further – this is because lower frequency soundwaves are a bit slower than those at higher frequency. By looking at how frequencies disperse, we can estimate how far the wave has travelled, and this can give us an estimate of where they originated from.</p>
<p>Our study was initially motivated by a desire to gain more knowledge about <a href="http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b">the incident involving missing flight MH370</a>. To confirm that our idea worked we targeted two 5.1 magnitude earthquakes, which had already been localised by seismometers, and tried to find their location with our method. The accuracy was quite good (with errors of around 100-150km), considering that the signals travelled for 2,000km in one case and 5,000km in the other, and that the hydrophones picked up other noises due to surface wind, boats, and other underwater sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191025/original/file-20171019-1075-1n0w7ee.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Location of earthquakes, and of signal thought to be from an object impacting the surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Davide Crivelli/Usama Kadri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our search we also found a very interesting signal coming from an area near the Antarctic circle. This signal looks surprisingly similar to one which we obtained by dropping a heavy sphere in a large tank, 40 metres deep, during a set of experiments. We think the ocean signal could have been caused by a meteorite, but have yet to confirm this with NASA.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191027/original/file-20171019-1075-1myowh4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Top figure shows the signature recorded in Canadian experiments; the bottom three signals were captured on the HA01 hydrophones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Davide Crivelli/Usama Kadri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>MH370</h2>
<p>Since confirming that the technique worked, we have used advanced automated methods to find signals buried inside the hours of data recorded by the hydrophone station off Cape Leeuwin before the time flight MH370 was believed to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-after-mh370-vanished-we-have-only-theories-but-heres-why-the-search-must-go-on-38348">run out of fuel</a>. We were able to find and localise two very faint signals – one ten minutes after the last satellite communication with the plane – but far from the probable location arc, and another almost one hour later, closer to the last area where the plane last communicated with a satellite. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/191028/original/file-20171019-1072-er7nmx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The two events (E1 and E2) captured on March 8 2014, between 00:00 UTC and 02:00 UTC.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Davide Crivelli/Usama Kadri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though we have located two points around the time of MH370’s disappearance, we cannot say with any real certainty that these have any association with the aircraft. Just like in a busy restaurant, it gets more and more difficult to pick up individual voices as the noise in the room gets louder. What we do know is that the hydrophones picked up remarkably weak signals at these locations and that the signals, according to our calculations, accounted for some sort of source in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>All of this information has been passed onto the Australian Transport Safety Bureau – the government body which was <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/the-search/about-the-search/">leading the search for MH370</a> until it was suspended on January 17 2017. We anticipate that both now, and in the future, this new source of information could be <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-points-to-the-crash-site-of-missing-plane-mh370-63019">used in conjunction</a> with a whole <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370/">host of other data</a> that is at the disposal of the authorities in the search for missing objects at sea.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new method has been developed to find objects that land at sea using underwater sounds.Davide Crivelli, Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering, Cardiff UniversityUsama Kadri, Lecturer of Applied Mathematics, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/556982016-03-07T18:56:35Z2016-03-07T18:56:35ZTwo years on since flight MH370 disappeared and the search has found nothing: what now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113649/original/image-20160303-10395-1qzu7nz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rough conditions in the Southern Indian Ocean as the search for MH370 continues.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Transport Safety Bureau/John Draves</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s two years since Malaysia Airlines <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/flight-mh370">flight MH370</a> disappeared with 239 <a href="http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/content/dam/malaysia-airlines/mas/PDF/MH370/Malaysia%20Airlines%20Flight%20MH%20370%20Passenger%20Manifest_Nationality@10Apr.pdf">passengers and crew</a> on board. Despite an intense search, the only confirmed wreckage has been <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/mh370-investigation-french-investigators-confirm-flaperon-is-from-missing-plane/news-story/bf15b3651f9360a66c28f99aa27f6dda">part of a flaperon</a> found washed up on a beach on the island of La Reunion, in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>There are reports this week that another <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-07/second-possible-mh370-plane-part-found-in-reunion/7225172">possible piece of the missing aircraft</a> has been found near the same island.</p>
<p>The debris found last week <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/independent-experts-give-their-opinions-on-new-possible-mh370-debris-found-in-mozambique-channel/news-story/406d326eec1da68a6a8d604aa8c7169e">on a sandbank in Mozambique</a> has been <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-airlines-australia-mozambiqu-idUSKCN0W5030">sent to Australia for testing</a> to see if it’s from the missing Boeing 777-200ER.</p>
<p>The confirmation that the first wreckage was from the aircraft validated military radar data, which indicated flight MH370 diverted away from its scheduled route, flew back across the Malaysian peninsula and over the Indian Ocean. Why it diverted is still a mystery.</p>
<p>Flight MH370 was en route to Beijing after leaving Kuala Lumpur, in Malaysia, early on March 8, 2014. A couple of hours into the flight, it lost contact with air traffic controllers and disappeared from radar.</p>
<p>The initial search along the scheduled route to China was diverted when an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/24/flight-mh370-inmarsat-aaib-analysis">analysis of satellite pings</a> from the aircraft revealed the flight more likely ended up in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Western Australia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370.aspx">Australian-led search</a> has been going ever since but so far, there’s nothing to indicate exactly where the aircraft ended its flight. So two years on, is it time to give up the search?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113647/original/image-20160303-10357-u2de54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the search vessels, Fugro Equator, in rough seas in the search area in the southern Indian Ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/resources/images/">Australian Transport Safety Bureau/Justin Baulch</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is the search over?</h2>
<p>About 85,000 square kilometres of the 120,000 square kilometre search zone <a href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/updates/operational-update/">has been covered so far</a>. The searchers are hoping the aircraft may be found in the area still to be searched.</p>
<p>But as the search nears its end without finding the wreckage, the focus is on where to go next. Should the search continue and, if so, where?</p>
<p>Many people would like to see the search continue and find out what happened to this aircraft. But searchers face a real conundrum.</p>
<p>All the analysis of satellite data and aircraft range estimates based on maximum and minimum fuel-burn scenarios places the most likely final resting place of the plane in the present search area.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113646/original/image-20160303-10357-1qpvtz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The latest search area for missing flight MH370.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/resources/images/">Australian Transport Safety Bureau</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once that area has been searched without success, where do you go next?</p>
<p>A lot of effort will be expended on reviewing all the data and assumptions that pointed to the current search area. The aim will be to see if there was some detail that was missed; an error made in an assumption or an assumption that was overly optimistic; or anything that might suggest an amendment to the existing search area, or maybe a new one.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mh370-mozambique-debris-tipped-uwa-professor/7223022">Oceanographers forecast that any floating wreckage</a> originating from the existing search area would come ashore along the African coast, near La Reunion Island, about the time it did. This suggests, if the wreckage is not actually in the search area, it might be tantalisingly close.</p>
<p>It could be an option to just continue with a race track search pattern around the boundary of the existing search area, ever increasing the search area until the wreckage is found.</p>
<p>One possibility is that the aircraft is actually in the search area, and for some reason related to the search equipment fidelity, assumptions in analysis algorithms or underwater terrain anomalies, the wreckage has been missed. We could search for years and years and not find it.</p>
<p>And if we check and recheck all the data, assumptions and error tolerances and find nothing new, then when, if ever, do we decide to go back and look again in the same area?</p>
<p>No doubt the relatives of those lost with the aircraft would support the continuation of the search. But many others will argue that the search should be called off, especially as the cost of continuing will be hundreds of millions of dollars a year.</p>
<h2>New technologies</h2>
<p>Some will argue the money would be better spent on development and implementation of new technology applications to prevent aircraft from just disappearing from radar. Or, on ensuring important flight data is transmitted from the aircraft so the need to find the on-board flight recorders becomes less vital.</p>
<p>One of the many mysteries about flight MH370 is why the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-airlines-disappearance-insig-idUSBREA2G14020140317">aircraft’s transponder was apparently turned off</a> minutes after one of the pilots signed off from Malaysian air traffic control. Transponders let air traffic controllers know the location of an aircraft, so turning it off makes the aircraft disappear from radar.</p>
<p>One very interesting debate raging at the moment is whether it should be impossible for the transponders to be switched off by the pilot or anyone else on board. If that had been the case, then flight MH370 couldn’t have just disappeared. </p>
<p>But one of the long-term flight safety tenets is that pilots should be able to isolate all electrical circuits should any failure or fault in the system cause a fire. A design change to prevent pilots switching off transponders would introduce a new risk should any fault in a transponder lead to a fire.</p>
<h2>Just theories</h2>
<p>In the absence of any new information, there will be nothing concrete to support or debunk all the theories about what happened to flight MH370: hijacked by the pilot, or someone else, in-flight fire, decompression and other theories have all been aired in relation to flight MH370.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, without finding the wreckage and the recorders, that’s what they’ll remain: theories. There’s almost no hard data supporting any of them, just assumptions, circumstantial evidence and guesstimations. </p>
<p>The air safety fraternity would really like to know what happened to this aircraft, just in case there is a gremlin lurking in the aviation system just waiting to bite again. Here’s hoping not!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Dell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are hopes that another piece of the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 has been found. But authorities still don’t know what happened to the aircraft, and the 239 people on board.Geoffrey Dell, Associate Professor/Discipline Leader Accident Investigation and Forensics, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/460792015-08-16T20:26:34Z2015-08-16T20:26:34ZThe search for MH370: sharing the costs fairly<p>The search for Malaysia Airlines (MH) flight 370 - which disappeared in March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing - has been a collaborative effort in all but one way.</p>
<p>Despite an agreement with Malaysia and China to share costs, Australia has carried the heaviest weight, with Australia’s 2014-1015 costs budgeted at <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2015-16/content/bp2/html/bp2_expense-18.htm">$79.6 million</a>, as against reported costs of <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/flight-mh370-update-china-not-paying-fair-share-search-costs-australia-says-2050055">$40 million</a> incurred by the Malaysian government. </p>
<p>Australia has borne these search costs because it is the only state proximate to the area in which MH370 - it appears now - very likely ditched, and was practically the state best equipped to take the lead and conduct the search. Although <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503469">153 people</a> of the 227 passengers and 12 crew onboard were Chinese, China did not contribute resources or equipment to the underwater search.</p>
<p>This situation has come about despite a raft of treaties signed by almost all the world’s nations in other areas such as liability for passenger death or injury, as well as for delay and loss of or damage to baggage and cargo (the 1929 <a href="http://www.jus.uio.no/lm/air.carriage.warsaw.convention.1929/doc.html">Warsaw Convention</a> and the 1999 <a href="http://www.jus.uio.no/lm/air.carriage.unification.convention.montreal.1999/">Montreal Convention</a>), and the 1944 <a href="http://www.icao.int/publications/pages/doc7300.aspx">Chicago Convention</a> on international civil aviation. </p>
<h2>Sharing the search costs more fairly</h2>
<p>How, then, to arrive at a collaborative solution for future aviation search cooperation for recovery operations in non-territorial ocean waters? It seems to us that there are two possible solutions: one a multilateral approach, and the other a government-to-government approach.</p>
<p>In terms of a multilateral solution, Australia has taken the lead, in part because of bearing the search costs associated with MH370. Earlier this year, Australia <a href="http://www.icao.int/Meetings/HLSC2015/Documents/WP/wp074_en.pdf">suggested</a> to ICAO at its Planning for Global Aviation Safety Improvement conference that an international approach be taken “to ensure that states allocate appropriate resources and prioritize [search] … activities similarly”.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.icao.int/Meetings/HLSC2015/Documents/WP/wp074_en.pdf">ICAO working paper</a> from that conference states that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>there is a high likelihood of problems arising in the continuity of a search that extends beyond the rescue phase. The potential for difficulties to arise is likely to exist in circumstances where the aircraft is believed to have gone missing in a search and rescue zone that is not the responsibility of the State with the onus to conduct the investigation … In the case of MH370 the aircraft was believed to have gone missing in Australia’s search and rescue zone but Malaysia had responsibility for the accident investigation under Annex 13.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The paper <a href="http://www.icao.int/Meetings/HLSC2015/Documents/WP/wp074_en.pdf">concluded</a> that “in the event that a similar tragedy happens in the future, the states involved may be assisted by some additional [standards and recommended practices] that provide a framework for cooperation”. </p>
<h2>A state-to-state approach</h2>
<p>In the absence of any ICAO multilateral approach, we have <a href="https://theconversation.com/mh370-cost-sharing-agreement-a-chance-to-avoid-future-mistakes-27383">argued</a> that there may be some worth in concluding a state-to-state agreement between relevant states in the event of an accident. Such an agreement could incorporate the following six principles:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The state most proximate to the area in which an aircraft is lost would control the search and rescue operation and would fund that operation.</p></li>
<li><p>The state of registration/owners of the aircraft would be granted special status and consulted regarding the particulars of the search and rescue operation.</p></li>
<li><p>States with nationals on board the aircraft would be apprised of the parameters of the search on an ongoing basis, and would be invited to monitor that search (through physical representation or otherwise).</p></li>
<li><p>Reimbursement of costs incurred by the state controlling the search and rescue operation would be made at periodic intervals during the search (if lengthy) or at its conclusion, with (a) half of the costs borne equally by the state controlling the search and rescue operation and the state of registration/ aircraft owners, and (b) the remaining costs borne by states in proportion to the passengers on board.</p></li>
<li><p>If a state cannot afford its apportioned costs, those costs would be assumed by other states on the above basis.</p></li>
<li><p>The state most proximate to the area in which an aircraft is lost (in formal consultation with the state of registration/ aircraft owners), would determine when the search concludes.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It seems to us that, no matter whether a multilateral or state-to-state approach is taken, either approach may well afford a measure of certainty (and perhaps comfort) to relatives and friends of passengers. </p>
<p>That should be the objective of both ICAO and the airlines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia has borne the brunt of costs for MH370. But there are fairer ways to apportion costs for future searches.David Hodgkinson, Associate Professor, The University of Western AustraliaRebecca Johnston, Adjunct Lecturer, Law School, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/454722015-07-30T16:12:36Z2015-07-30T16:12:36ZAircraft debris looks like it’s from MH370 – now can we find the rest?<p>It appears that the debris washed ashore on Reunion, an island east of Madagascar, may be from the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 which disappeared in March 2014, believed <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-locating-mh370-in-the-southern-ocean-is-so-difficult-24699">lost at sea</a> somewhere to the west of Australia. </p>
<p>Reunion lies 500km east of Madagascar near the island of Mauritius, around 4,000km from the area where search efforts for the missing aircraft have been concentrated. That’s a huge distance to travel, even in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-after-mh370-vanished-we-have-only-theories-but-heres-why-the-search-must-go-on-38348">500 or so days it has been since the crash</a>. Is this possible from an oceanographic perspective? </p>
<p>Certainly, it’s possible that aircraft debris – which is built to be relatively lightweight, otherwise it would be difficult for the aircraft to fly – can float quite close to the surface. The near-surface ocean currents in the region are mainly driven by broad wind patterns.</p>
<p>In the southern Indian Ocean the average long-term near surface circulation is counter clockwise, and so material that enters the ocean southwest of Australia would be carried by the West Australia current northwards, towards the equator. There it could join the South Equatorial current moving westwards until it joined the Mozambique current travelling along the African coast and past Reunion. The distance travelled – roughly 5,000-6,000km in 15 months or so – gives an average speed of about 15cm/s. This is quite a reasonable value for the currents in the upper levels of the ocean water column where such debris might find itself suspended.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90352/original/image-20150730-25753-1axfcza.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Currents map the debris’ possible route across the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Corrientes-oceanicas.png">Michael Pidwirny</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using ocean currents to look back into the past</h2>
<p>Even if it is part of Flight MH370, does this provide us with any new information that could help investigators pinpoint the crash site location? Perhaps “pinpoint” is too strong a word. But it’s certainly possible to use numerical ocean circulation models to trace the route the debris might have taken and suggest new regions of the ocean to search.</p>
<p>Such simulations come with certain assumptions. Just as a weather forecast becomes less accurate the further ahead we try to predict, attempting to re-create a journey like this through simulation becomes less certain the further back into the past we have to travel. </p>
<p>This is because the circulation transporting the debris would be driven by winds, and we are talking about winds over a remote part of the ocean. Consequently any uncertainty in the wind field used in the model will introduce uncertainty into the model simulations of the ocean currents, which would in turn create potentially large variability in any predictions of the location of a crash site the ocean currents dragged the debris from. </p>
<p>This is not to say that it’s not worth doing – it may very well indicate which part of the ocean the search should focus on, and perhaps even more importantly rule out areas not worth visiting. If one piece of wreckage has emerged, then there may be more to come, which could add accuracy to the prediction model.</p>
<p>Ultimately, when searching an ocean area as huge as the Indian and Southern oceans, any help is better than nothing at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mattias Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Stray debris on a distant beach could well be the first remnant found of missing Flight MH370.Mattias Green, Senior Lecturer in Physical Oceanography, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/426862015-06-04T20:09:39Z2015-06-04T20:09:39ZThe Terminator as boss: why mass sackings don’t work<p>Malaysia Airlines recently appointed a new CEO, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/malaysia-airlines-terminator-begins-hard-reset-20150601-ghe9ut.html">Christoph Mueller</a>, to turn around its failing fortunes. After the dual tragedies of 2014, and even before, the organisation has been struggling. Its traumatised employees have had much to deal with, but even they were probably surprised to be fired en masse last week.</p>
<p>Living up to his nickname “The Terminator” (earned as CEO of European airlines) – Mueller terminated all 20,000 Malaysia Airlines staff before offering a lucky 14,000 new contracts to rejoin the downsized firm. His intentions are certainly clear - his way of turning around the organisation is to remake it from the ground up, according to his own predilections. There is no sense of collaborative decision making or plurality. Nobody can have any misunderstanding of who is the boss.</p>
<p>The aviation industry is more prone to this type of “shock therapy” than most. Legacy carriers like Malaysia are confronted at home and abroad by new airlines with radically different internal economies. Malaysia Airlines has the misfortune of being co-located with Air Asia, one of the world’s fastest growing low cost airlines.</p>
<p>The airline’s owner and board hope that Mueller will turn things around - but experience and <a href="http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/which-way-should-you-downsize-in-a-crisis/">much evidence suggests</a> his dramatic actions are likely to fail.</p>
<h2>Willingness to fire</h2>
<p>In the 2009 romantic comedy cum drama, “Up in the Air”, George Clooney’s character Ryan Bingham flies around the US firing people – a task that those peoples’ bosses find unsettling. Happily able to distance himself entirely from the human consequences of his job, Bingham’s life obsession is reaching ten million frequent flyer miles and securing an uber rare frequent flyer card from American Airlines.</p>
<p>It is fiction, of course, in most elements of detail. For example, generally American managers have no problem firing people, and have been doing so with gusto for decades. <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23160d12-9779-11e0-af13-00144feab49a.html#axzz3byqJdADb">As an example</a>, in 2001 Cisco fired 8,500 staff in a downsizing exercise that saw morale in the company plummet. Since then Cisco has adopted a stronger “talent management” approach to handling layoffs and economic downturns, however long term damage was clearly done. As in all things, Australia and indeed much of the rest of the world follow closely and invariably US trends. Downsizing is a <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/IJM-04-2013-0076">central element of corporate cultures</a> in most western nations.</p>
<h2>Chainsaw Al</h2>
<p>The most celebrated corporate “toe cutter” in modern times is quite probably Al “Chainsaw” Dunlap. Dunlap made his name cutting a swathe through various US corporations. He went on to live in opulence in a Florida mansion reportedly replete with <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/magazine/the-stack-the-psychopath-test-by-jon-ronson-07212011.html">“sharks and lions and panthers and eagles and hawks, and a lot of gold”</a>. Clearly not in the business of challenging stereotypes, Al knew his place as King of the Jungle. </p>
<p>In a way, Dunlap’s unbridled behaviour was the entailment of American capitalist triumphalism central to Reagan’s America. Business is war - and while enemies are out there competing against us, they also work just down the hall. Those fired deserved no more than what’s legally necessary, while he deserved no less than the millions he was paid to transform his realms. </p>
<p>Dunlap, however, is a cautionary tale for those shareholders who made the mistake of trusting him - including Australia’s own <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2009/s2711781.htm">Packers</a>. He was later permanently barred from serving as a director of a public company due to <a href="https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/lr17710.htm">fraud</a> and was cited as an exemplar of the modern <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2011/06/14/why-some-psychopaths-make-great-ceos/">corporate psychopath</a>. This goes a long way to explaining his cavalier approach to those he employed - it’s likely the impact his decisions had on their wellbeing quite simply did not enter his mind. </p>
<p>Herein lies an interesting paradox – businesses are first and foremost groups of people. To survive in business, the first priority is the management of relationships. Treating your employees like cannon fodder might create some short term gain, but at what medium and long-term cost?</p>
<h2>The evidence</h2>
<p>The phenomena of downsizing has been well researched, and it is found to almost inevitably fail in any of its stated aims. </p>
<p>Meta-analyses of downsizing’s effects indicate that massive layoffs are bad for <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952768">shareholders</a>, <a href="https://archive.ama.org/Archive/AboutAMA/Pages/AMA%20Publications/AMA%20Journals/Journal%20of%20Marketing/TOCs/SUM_2012.3/customer_uncertainty_downsizing.aspx">customers</a> and of course <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8551.2010.00724.x/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false">employees</a>. A <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/James_Guthrie3/publication/211384719_Causes_and_Effects_of_Employee_Downsizing_A_Review_and_Synthesis/links/0deec5277b354d9dd8000000.pdf">major omnibus analysis</a> of recent empirical research concludes there are equivocal findings in relation to downsizing’s consequences - with negative impacts dominating. Survivors often feel guilt, especially if the processes involved in the downsizing have been arbitrary and unfair. </p>
<p>In essence, downsizing resets the relationships that are at the heart of every organisation in a negative manner - cynicism replaces trust, secrecy replaces candour and faithlessness replaces loyalty. What else could you possibly expect?</p>
<h2>A better way?</h2>
<p>A key problem with American business literature is that it is predicated on conflict. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porter_five_forces_analysis">Porter’s Five Forces</a>, for example, sees great gains to be had by weakening the relative position of your buyers and suppliers through any legal means. Workers are seen as an entity with innately conflicting priorities to shareholders. </p>
<p>Surely the way to build sustainable organisations is to treat all stakeholders with decency and respect. Rebuilding trust after downsizing is nigh impossible and so logically, downsizing is the antithesis of the organisational renewal it purports to be.</p>
<p>Managers seeking to turn organisations around would do better to try candid and open dialogue. They might not like where this leads, but at least they will secure honesty and commitment from the organisation’s employees, owners and stakeholders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42686/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rice is a member of the NTEU and the ALP.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nigel Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malaysia Airlines is letting go 6,000 staff as it seeks to turn around its fortunes. But research shows downsizing on this scale doesn’t usually work.John Rice, Professor of Management, University of New EnglandNigel Martin, Lecturer, College of Business and Economics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/313842014-09-08T05:26:30Z2014-09-08T05:26:30ZMalaysia Airlines problems run far deeper than the crashes<p>Following the catastrophic losses of flights <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/mh370">MH370</a> over the Indian Ocean and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/mh17">MH17</a> over Ukraine, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/business/international/malaysia-airlines-to-cut-30-of-work-force.html?_r=0">received a bailout</a> of nearly £1.2 billion from the Malaysian government. The airline is to be de-listed from the stock exchange and taken over entirely by <a href="http://www.khazanah.com/">Khazanah</a>, the government’s investment arm. As part of the restructuring, 6,000 jobs – or 30% of the workforce – will be axed, along with yet-to-be-announced cuts to unprofitable routes and the appointment of a new chief executive. </p>
<p>With yet another attempt at reform, MAS employees <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/uk-malaysia-airlines-staff-idUKKBN0GQ27K20140827">themselves joke</a> about that same circus with different clowns. And Khazanah is almost wishful about the promised overhaul, as if this has to be believed to be seen. The government <a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/08/29/Najib-confident-MAS-turnaround/">has insisted</a> that the cash injection is not a bailout, but an “investment” to turn MAS around for a possible re-listing in the future. Call it what you may, but the airline has been burning cash and receiving intravenous drips for years amounting to billions of pounds, and was already teetering before the twin disasters.</p>
<h2>Too prestigious to fail?</h2>
<p>As in most countries, the airline is a symbol of national pride. Most Malaysians believe it will never be allowed to fail, never mind the record losses and the poor taxpayer. Because of this belief, emboldened MAS unions had been stonewalling staff and wage cuts for years. That the airline is a bloated organisation is beyond argument; it has a staff count comparable to bigger and more profitable carriers such as Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines. </p>
<p>The unions’ belligerence included <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17934467">torpedoing the proposed share swap</a> in 2012 between MAS and AirAsia, the successful upstart budget carrier that shows up everything that’s wrong with Malaysia Airlines. To resist lay-offs and change, the <a href="http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/pm-to-review-mas-airasia-deal-says-mas-union-official">unions even threatened</a> to withdraw support for the government in the run-up to the 2013 general elections. By all accounts, they succeeded, and the AirAsia tie-up was called off. </p>
<p>But those heady days for the unions are numbered. MH370 and MH17 might just have been the tipping point. The new plan to slash the fat appears uncompromising, and rightly so. And one of the new chief executive’s key tasks will be to tame the unions and convince them to place the company’s long-term survival interests above their own. </p>
<p>A bloated and unproductive workforce isn’t the only problem. The airline has long been milked by vested interests keen to exploit its links with the government and ruling party. Critics have pointed to onerous contracts with local suppliers, including a <a href="http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/why-punish-6000-mas-staff-over-putrajayas-incompetence-asks-anwar">25-year deal</a> with a well connected company to cater in-flight meals. Whether such contracts will be re-negotiated remains to be seen. </p>
<h2>The problem with regional focus</h2>
<p>Then there is the issue of routes. MAS once flew to Buenos Aires via Johannesburg and New York via Stockholm. It is doubtful if such prestige routes were launched on the basis of hard-nosed profitability assessments. These loss-making flights have since been dropped. </p>
<p>As part of the new reforms, there are indications that marquee routes such as Paris and Amsterdam may have to be reduced or axed as well, along with Istanbul and Dubai. Profits have been hammered by brutal competition with the deep-pocketed Gulf carriers that have better networks and products. </p>
<p>MAS will henceforth concentrate on regional routes, says Khazanah. Presumably, that means a focus on China, Japan, India, Australia and south-east Asia. But that brings the airline into head-long competition with regional specialists AirAsia and AirAsia X, who fly not just backpackers but increasingly also businessmen. </p>
<p>Without a culture of keeping both eyes on costs, this is a fight MAS cannot win. There can only be one outcome: it will have to discount heavily to fill seats, and this will damage yields and profits severely. A check with online-travel sites already shows up MAS fares as among the cheapest on many itineraries, yet it is struggling to attract passengers due to the lingering effects of MH370 and MH17.</p>
<p>Those fears will pass soon enough. But the structural problems will not. These will take years for senior management to fix, requiring the most uncompromising professionalism in staying abreast of the competition, managing costs and the unions, as well as resisting political interference. No doubt the process will be painful. This may well be the last chance, and the promised changes will have to be seen to be believed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan has done some consultancy work for AirAsia in the past. </span></em></p>Following the catastrophic losses of flights MH370 over the Indian Ocean and MH17 over Ukraine, Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has received a bailout of nearly £1.2 billion from the Malaysian government. The…Alan Khee-Jin Tan, Professor of Law, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/311542014-09-02T12:51:29Z2014-09-02T12:51:29ZWhat Malaysia Airlines must do to survive (and maybe even thrive again)<p>Malaysia Airlines was hit with two extraordinary crises this year that have rocked the confidence of customers and left the company struggling to manage the damage. Lone passengers are posting <a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-deserted-by-travellers-and-cabin-crew/story-fnh81fz8-1227038723713">pictures of otherwise empty planes</a> on social media, cabin crew are leaving and commentators are <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/higher-commissions-fewer-passengers-the-struggle-to-save-malaysia-airlines-deepens/story-e6frfq80-1227032981979">questioning its ability to survive intact</a>. It is a challenge, certainly, but not an impossible one.</p>
<p>The disasters which befell the airline were extraordinary, shocking events. First, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/flight-mh370">disappearance of flight MH370</a> in March with 239 people on board, then the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/flight-mh17">shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine</a> in July with 298 lives lost. Both were mysterious and tragic accidents, from a company with a previously unblemished safety record. And crucially, both incidents brought the airline a mass of criticism over how it responded.</p>
<p>The financial impact has been clear. In March, after MH370 disappeared, the firm came under <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/25/a-storm-of-anger-and-sorrow-mh370-victims-families-descend-on-malaysian-embassy-in-beijing/">fierce pressure from the Chinese victims’ relatives</a> and consequently sales from China plummeted 60%. There has also been a sustained decline in the company’s share price, which lost 21% since August 2013. </p>
<p>To be fair, the airline was already experiencing financial problems with losses of MYR1.17 billion (£222m) in 2013, partly as a result of fierce competition from low-cost operators. But losses in 2014 will be much worse and the airline’s major shareholder, Khazanah Nasional (Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund) has announced plans to address this by <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28978881">buying up the remaining 31% of the shares to suspend trading</a>, getting rid of 6,000 staff and appointing a new chief executive.</p>
<h2>Rebuilding response</h2>
<p>It is all a powerful reminder that how a company handles a crisis can determine whether or not the company survives. Union Carbide never overcame the loss of shareholder trust and the cost of damages imposed on it <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/3/newsid_2698000/2698709.stm">after the Bhopal disaster in 1984</a>. It was eventually bought out by Dow Chemical. </p>
<p>BP’s share price plummeted by more than 50% in the month after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/deepwater-horizon-four-years-on-and-offshore-safety-remains-questionable-25471">Deepwater Horizon incident</a> in 2010. Costs imposed by US courts have reached nearly £30bn. The company’s crisis response was widely criticised and resulted in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10360084">sacking of CEO Tony Hayward</a>.</p>
<p>In order to survive, Malaysia Airlines needs to learn from its mistakes. It must develop a flexible crisis response capability; respond to the emotional needs of its public, not just their informational needs; and conduct a post-mortem on how they can handle crises better in future. The company also needs to rebuild the relationship with its global passenger base in order to refill its planes, particularly the Chinese and the Dutch. This requires a careful nurturing of trust first in its domestic market, then in its international markets. </p>
<p>As far as practical measures go, as a state-owned airline, all government business air transport should, from now on, be mandated through Malaysia Airlines, as should that for all employees working on Malaysian government contracts. The airline should then offer favourable rates for volume procurement contracts to other governments. </p>
<p>It should also reward its loyalty card holders and frequent flyers with more favourable rates, but for a fixed time period only. Finally, a special promotional fixed period offer should be made to other volume buyers, including physical and online travel agents, which is more attractive than that of similar competition such as Emirates, Singapore and Cathay Pacific. </p>
<p>The airline should immediately give up all loss-making airport slots and sell off any old planes. However, while tackling supply by lowering costs will help, stoking demand is fundamental in the current climate. This is not a simple process, given that people now associate Malaysia Airlines with danger and tragedy.</p>
<h2>Trust up</h2>
<p>To survive this crisis they need to reposition the brand. They should take advantage of the fact that they are wholly owned by the government, as this should instill a sense of trust with the public in Malaysia at least. In the interim, they need to publicise what degree of responsibility they will bear and the changes they have now made to improve safety. They could, through government contacts, commission a fast but independent audit into their safety record to provide content for promotional messages. </p>
<p>Crucially, Malaysia Airlines must have a better crisis management system in place should disaster strike once again. It faced intense criticism of its communications abilities after MH370 – even <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-airlines-text-messages-victims-families-bad-news-article-1.1732295">informing relatives families via text message</a> – and things were only marginally better after MH17. Its recovery plans now have to battle through the perceptions created in those days and weeks when planning, transparency, responsibility and decisiveness could have made such a difference. </p>
<p>Repositioning the airline will require a significant communications budget, top global communications agencies, and no small degree of honesty. They might also need to find institutional investment partners if equity gets tight as it struggles with a new supply/demand curve and to fill empty seats. The company should be careful, however, to resist simply discounting prices long-term and across the board, as this would drive a decline in the firm’s image. It won’t be easy, and it will probably take several years before Malaysia Airlines can regain passengers’ esteem on an even footing with rivals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Baines does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malaysia Airlines was hit with two extraordinary crises this year that have rocked the confidence of customers and left the company struggling to manage the damage. Lone passengers are posting pictures…Paul Baines, Professor of Political Marketing, Programme Director, MSc in Management, Cranfield UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/295632014-07-24T05:18:32Z2014-07-24T05:18:32ZMalaysia Airlines now faces stark choices in a battle to survive<p>The airline industry has a history of poor financial returns. On a global basis the cost of capital hasn’t been recovered any time in the past 25 years, and in 2014 the industry-wide profit forecast by the International Air Transport Association equates to little more than $4 per passenger. Some carriers do worse than others.</p>
<p>Malaysia Airlines (MAS) was struggling even before the loss of MH370 in March 2014, and the loss of MH17 in July 2014 can only compound the problems of the airline. Largely state-owned, and bound by its historical position of flag-carrier, MAS has struggled to compete. On one side it faces intense low cost competition in its home market from Air Asia and Air Asia’s long haul sibling Air Asia X. On the other side it sees relentless growth from gulf-state full service airlines. </p>
<p>This pressure can only be amplified with the recent opening of the dedicated low cost terminal KLIA 2 in Kuala Lumpur, replacing a cargo shed on the far side of the airport with a purpose-built terminal connected by fast train to the city centre. Air Asia’s passengers no longer contend with second rate facilities at their home base airport.</p>
<p>At the full-service end of the market, MAS faces steadily increasing competition from Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and Turkish Airways for its traditional role connecting passengers from Australasia and Southeast Asia to Europe. The once sprawling long haul network of MAS has shed services to North America, South America, and several cities in Europe over recent years, leaving it poorly positioned to compete with the Gulf-state airlines. </p>
<p>It also lacks Emirates’ focus on unit cost control, with the Dubai-based carrier flying more efficient seat configurations than MAS on Boeing 777 aircraft. Opportunities for MAS to exploit its recent oneworld alliance membership have also faded, as Qantas aligned itself with Emirates steering more Australian long-haul traffic away from Southeast Asia. Qantas further weakened the appeal of MAS to its frequent flyers by changing the status credits earned on MAS flights to Kuala Lumpur in a recent program overhaul.</p>
<h2>Stranded in the middle ground</h2>
<p>Strategy theorists warn of the risk of being “stuck in the middle”. MAS was stranded in the strategic middle ground the middle before the two crisis events of 2014. The regional markets in Southeast Asia are now largely the domain of low cost airlines. Air Asia’s several business units, as well as Cebu Pacific, Nok Air, and multiple subsidiaries of Lion, Jetstar, and Tigerair have reshaped both the cost and yield curves for shorthaul services. </p>
<p>MAS has found in Asia, as with the traditional full service airlines in Europe, that it is extremely difficult to compete with low cost airlines on shorter flights where tighter seat pitch and the lack of inflight entertainment have less impact than the appeal of cheaper fares. Its national carrier obligations and the trade union structures in Malaysia have made tough cost cutting difficult for MAS to deliver.</p>
<p>In the long haul markets from Asia-Pacific to Europe, MAS lacks adequate scale, connectivity, and brand presence to compete successfully with the well-funded and fast growing Gulf carriers. While Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific is able to leverage its status as a gateway to mainland China, and Singapore Airlines nurtures its strong global brand, the relatively weak MAS marque is now scarred by the loss of two Boeing 777 aircraft in the space of five months. Further, its long-haul, low-cost competitor Air Asia X now markets connecting flights over its base in Kuala Lumpur to the Air Asia network, effectively copying the MAS network carrier model but at a lower cost base.</p>
<h2>Possible restructure</h2>
<p>MAS has been through several restructures since it was returned from an unsuccessful sale to entrepreneur Tajudin Ramli in 2001. The Malaysian state investment agency Khazanah is now facing another restructure of the struggling carrier, with <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/malaysia-airlines-may-be-taken-over-by-government-or-enter-bankruptcy-20140721-zvfqa.html">media reports</a> suggesting it may be taken private. The airline is a repeated loss maker and needs a major fleet overhaul to replace the aging Boeing 777-200 aircraft. </p>
<p>The choices facing Khazanah are stark. ASEAN’s open skies opens new market possibilities in the coming years, but MAS has little prospect of bridging the cost gap with its low cost regional competitors to capture that opportunity. On the other hand it lacks the scale and brand strength to take on the Gulf carriers on the long haul routes to Europe. Meanwhile Air Asia X is eating into its competitive position on flights from Australian cities offering connectivity throughout Asia. Large fleet orders are already in place for key competitors in both the regional and long haul market segments.</p>
<p>Without some radical trimming of its cost base and an aggressive repositioning of the MAS brand, it seems unlikely that a further capital injection could be justified on any basis other than the desire to retain MAS as a flag carrier. A recent example of a restructuring plan that could be followed, if there is sufficient political will, is that of fellow oneworld airline JAL. It would be a test of nerve to undertake the staff number and cost reductions that were seen in the JAL case.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54727/original/qh2wsnfr-1406168059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">JAL’s restructure could provide a roadmap for MAS.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Kimimasa Mayama</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Suitors scarce</h2>
<p>Potential partners in the region seem scarce. The joint venture with Air Asia crumbled quickly, and talks with Australian carrier Qantas (already facing drastic cost cutting issues of its own) faded. Thai Airways International is too deeply embedded in the Thai political structure to look over its borders. Emirates already ruled out equity investments as it established its Qantas partnership, while Etihad has built its regional presence in Virgin Australia, alongside Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand.</p>
<p>Airlines with state ownership can be profitable. Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are two examples in the Asia-Pacific region. Air New Zealand, toughened by a bankruptcy restructuring, is now lean and innovative. Singapore Airlines leverages its brand, location, and service consistency to sustain a premium market position. MAS enjoys neither of these strengths. A significant factor for both Air New Zealand and Singapore Airlines is that they are based in free and open economies, and charged with sustaining commercial viability. </p>
<p>Restructuring the fleet, network, and workforce of MAS is only the first step. Freeing the airline to operate as a truly commercial entity may be much tougher. Without that freedom the future for MAS looks bleak, relying on periodic cash injections as its competitive position steadily fades against low cost regional competitors and the growing dominance of the long haul routes by the Gulf airlines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Douglas acted as a consultant to MAS on pricing and revenue management in 2003/2004.</span></em></p>The airline industry has a history of poor financial returns. On a global basis the cost of capital hasn’t been recovered any time in the past 25 years, and in 2014 the industry-wide profit forecast by…Ian Douglas, Senior Lecturer, UNSW Aviation, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/295602014-07-23T06:46:31Z2014-07-23T06:46:31ZWhat this photograph might tell investigators about what really happened to MH17<p>Much has been made of the possibility that the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was the work of an anti-aircraft missile. Even without confirmation or corroboration, investigators will have a wealth of evidence from the crash site and images from the scene to piece together the aeroplane’s last moments.</p>
<p>For the moment, there must remain doubt. The US has indicated that it has <a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/140721/evidence-russian-separatists-shot-mh17">satellite and signals intelligence</a> that a Russian-made BUK-M/SA-11 surface-to-air missile was launched from separatist-held areas of the Eastern Ukraine. Russia, in turn, has <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-ukrainian-military-jet-was-flying-close-to-passenger-plane-before-it-was-shot-down-says-russian-officer-9619143.html">claimed</a> that they have radar tapes of a Ukrainian Air Force SU-25 flying near MH17 just before radar contact was lost. </p>
<p>Given the paucity of hard evidence and the amount of noise generated how will we attempt to determine the actual physical cause of the crash and ultimately who might be responsible for it? Will it be the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-will-mh17s-black-boxes-reveal-29555">black boxes</a>”, physical wreckage, the human remains or some combination?</p>
<h2>Analysing the damage: was it a missile?</h2>
<p>Normally in aircraft accident investigation the first thing investigators try to establish is the original source of the accident. Is it a mechanical malfunction, flight crew error, or some external event? Further, if the cause is external, the question is whether it was accidental or something more malicious. In the case of MH17 none of this has yet been established. However, the signs are pointing more and more to an external event. What this external event was can be determined by the damage present on the aircraft wreckage.</p>
<p>The first question that needs to be answered is whether the original damage was sustained from within or outside of the aircraft. This type of work is something investigators are actually very good at, even if it is quite difficult for the untrained eye to tell. If the damage originated from outside, the blast patterns and holes will look very different than if the damage originated from inside the aircraft. If the damage originated from inside the aircraft then the investigators will need to determine if it was caused by a bomb (for example <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/topic/Lockerbie">PanAm 103</a>), or aircraft cause, (for example <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/summary/AAR0003.html">TWA 800</a>). Only if the damage originates from outside the aircraft can an anti-aircraft missile be considered.</p>
<p>Until the investigators get access to the actual wreckage and attempt to reconstruct the aircraft we cannot know for sure that the damage came from outside; however, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/jet-wreckage-bears-signs-of-impact-by-supersonic-missile-analysis-shows.html?_r=1">indications from numerous photographs</a> of portions of MH17’s fuselage and wings indicate that the initial damage was, most probably, external. We know this because of the shape of the holes. </p>
<p>In addition to an anti-aircraft missile there are several other possible causes that could produce this type of damage. One possible external cause would be a catastrophic failure of one of the two engines. While this type of event is quite rare it does happen occasionally, for instance <a href="https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/summary/AAR9006.html">United Airlines 232</a> and <a href="http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/1998/aar9801.pdf">Delta Air Lines 1288</a>. Catastrophic engine failures have caused several crashes; however, this was often from a failure of the flight control system, not the catastrophic in-flight breakup seen on MH17.</p>
<p>To help determine if the damage originated from an engine failure or an explosive device it is necessary to look at the location, size and shape of all of the fragmentation/shrapnel damage sustained by the aircraft. In the case of almost all of the engine failures the shrapnel damage is in line with and behind the location of the engine. For MH17, a significant amount of shrapnel damage occurred on the <a href="http://defensetech.org/2014/07/21/mh17-wreckage-photo-shows-evidence-of-shrapnel/">forward fuselage</a>, as far forward as the cockpit. This type of damage pattern is highly unlikely as high-energy engine parts move radially outwards at extremely high speeds. Further, because of the nature of catastrophic engine failures, the shrapnel damage tends to be highly irregular in shape. Missile warheads would produce a very different damage pattern.</p>
<p>Modern anti-aircraft missiles use what are known as proximity high-explosive fragmentation warheads. These are designed to detonate near the aircraft, maximising the likelihood of catastrophic damage. Like engine failures these warheads, <a href="http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/629390.pdf">send their fragments out radially</a>. However, because the warhead is located further away from the aircraft and the missile is moving at a different speed and in a different direction from the aircraft, the impact pattern will be substantially different from that of an engine failure.</p>
<h2>If it was a missile, what type?</h2>
<p>Given the competing theories as to who might have shot a missile at MH17 it is important to attempt to determine the type of missile, if any, that was used. By looking at the relative concentration of fragment damage on different parts of the aircraft, and the presence of scorching it is possible to determine approximately where the missile was when the warhead detonated. Further, based on the total amount of damage, investigators will be able to determine the minimum size a warhead would need to be. </p>
<p>This information will be very useful in discriminating between a small 50kg air-to-air missile and a much larger surface to air missile. Further, different missiles use slightly different kinds of fragmentation warheads with different explosives. By looking at the size and shape of the shrapnel holes it will be possible to narrow down the specific warhead that was used and even who manufactured it.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, even with all this information, if it turns out MH17 was downed by an SA-11 missile the aircraft wreckage and black boxes will probably not tell us who fired it and why. That will take finding actual parts of the missile and potentially someone actually owning up to firing on MH17.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hollingsworth receives funding from UK Department of Business innovations and Skills, the UK Environment Agency and Rolls-Royce. He is affiliated with American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.</span></em></p>Much has been made of the possibility that the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was the work of an anti-aircraft missile. Even without confirmation or corroboration, investigators will have a wealth…Peter Hollingsworth, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/294262014-07-18T13:07:31Z2014-07-18T13:07:31ZBlack box scuffle could mask the truth about flight MH17<p>Normally, when a crashed aircraft’s black box is recovered, it can reveal <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877">exactly what happened</a> to cause the disaster but in the case of MH17, the political instability between Ukraine and Russia could hamper operations.</p>
<p>If the black box of MH17 is detained by an organisation in military and political dispute with others, the creditability of the analysis results may be in doubt. This case is different from that of <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-wed-used-the-cloud-we-might-know-where-mh370-is-now-24542">MH370</a>, where the black box has yet to be found, but the idea is the same. The black box is vital, as is the integrity of the evidence it contains. It is how we establish the provenance of the facts used in <a href="https://learn2.open.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=201963">digital forensic analysis</a>.</p>
<p>That means that the black box data needs to be verified. If cloud-computing technology has been used, the verification can be done by cross-validating the flight status with other publicly available flight information. Recently at Microsoft, researchers have used cloud computing technology to predict the wind speeds with better accuracy when crowdsourcing the information with <a href="http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/news/features/windflow-060314.aspx">real-time flight data</a>. </p>
<p>But if cloud-computing technology is not used, the public must rely on whoever found the black box to truthfully relay the information inside. They might not release the raw data: as has happened in the past, the investigator may choose to reveal only a transcript or partial snippets of the sound tracks.</p>
<p>There are lots of forces at play in this evolving situation. It is not yet clear whether MH17’s black box has been found. Some reports have it on its way to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10975264/Problems-loom-for-investigators-as-Flight-MH17-black-box-may-be-in-Moscow.html">Russia</a> while others place two black boxes in the hands of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-rebels-recover-second-black-box-from-crash-site-9614158.html">Ukranian emergency services</a>. The potential for problems is obvious. If both sides of the conflict produce their own analysis, who is to be believed? If only one has a black box, can we be sure of its analysis of the data? </p>
<p>The case of MH17 is exactly the same as MH370 in one respect – they should both have us thinking about how we monitor aircraft.</p>
<p>Real-time rather than offline verification would enable us to gather much the same information as that contained in the black box and allow us to cross-check it across sources more easily. </p>
<p>There would have been other flights nearby which can cross validate some of the data. Take speed for example – wind speed against those neighbouring flights could be used to indicate how fast MH17 was going. And because the real-time speed data is in the public domain – <a href="http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp">FAA</a> offers access to them, for example – it would be hard, if not impossible, for whoever has the recorders of the individual flight to tamper with information about all the nearby flights.</p>
<p>Modifying flight data requires a substantial amount of computation. Making one lie is relatively easy but to cover up a lie that could be cross-checked by others, such as those operating neighbouring flights, would be much harder. </p>
<p>If we want the truth about MH17, we may have to look beyond the black box at data held elsewhere. Data is more powerful when it comes from a crowd, especially when the facts are likely to be disputed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yijun Yu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Normally, when a crashed aircraft’s black box is recovered, it can reveal exactly what happened to cause the disaster but in the case of MH17, the political instability between Ukraine and Russia could…Yijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/272082014-05-27T20:12:00Z2014-05-27T20:12:00ZA season on from MH370, how is Malaysia Airlines doing?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49532/original/5ycrjfhq-1401171991.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysia Airlines is still in business, but is rethinking its business model.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ailing_/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, almost three months ago. Despite comprehensive, almost unprecedented search operations involving dozens of states, the aircraft, or what remains of the aircraft, has not been found. It is still not known how or why it disappeared. </p>
<p>Malaysia Airlines’ financial viability has taken a significant blow, but it is ploughing on. The disappearance has also raised issues regarding airspace security and air travel safety, matters that can ultimately affect the performance of all airlines.</p>
<h2>Malaysia Airlines takes a financial hit</h2>
<p>Last week Malaysia Airlines <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/business/international/flights-disappearance-knocks-malaysia-airlines.html?_r=0t">said</a> the “dramatic impact” of MH370 resulted in its worst quarterly earnings in more than two years. Passenger traffic “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/business/international/flights-disappearance-knocks-malaysia-airlines.html?_r=0">fell sharply</a>”. The disappearance of MH370 caused “high numbers” of cancellations and a decline in long-haul travel. </p>
<p>Bookings from China <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-26/malaysian-air-to-take-steps-to-script-turnaround-no-bankruptcy.html">declined</a> by 50-60% (the majority of passengers on MH370 were Chinese). Chinese travel agents <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-26/malaysian-air-to-take-steps-to-script-turnaround-no-bankruptcy.html">boycotted</a> Malaysia Airlines.</p>
<p>Post-MH370, Malaysia Airlines stock has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/business/international/flights-disappearance-knocks-malaysia-airlines.html?_r=0">declined</a> as much as 20%, and this month plunged the most since 1998 on concerns the Malaysian government might let the company fail. In the past year its stock has <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/malaysian-air-falls-most-since-1998-amid-bankruptcy-concerns.html">dropped 60%</a> - as against an increase of almost 7% in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index. </p>
<p>And over the last five years its market value has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/business/international/flights-disappearance-knocks-malaysia-airlines.html?_r=0">fallen</a> about 80%, against a rise in the general Malaysian stock market. </p>
<p>MH stock is the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-26/malaysian-air-to-take-steps-to-script-turnaround-no-bankruptcy.html">worst performer</a> on the BI Global Airlines - Principal business index, which has 63 members. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/malay-airline-results-idUSL3N0O010D20140514">said</a> that looking for additional private investment and reducing the role of the state investor, Khazanah, could help improve Malaysia Airlines’ competitiveness, and that the carrier’s operating costs are so high that it needs to reconsider its business model.</p>
<p>But unlike before, there will be no government bailout. Some have claimed the airline may be heading toward bankruptcy.</p>
<h2>Optimism nonetheless?</h2>
<p>There are signs MH is urgently re-examining its business plan (if not its model). Two days ago MH rose to its highest level in 11 days in trading in Kuala Lumpur after it stated it wouldn’t seek bankruptcy protection. MH’s director of commercial operations <a href="http://www.nst.com.my/business/latest/mas-shares-advance-1.606016">indicated</a> the airline was taking “a close, hard look” at all aspects of its business model to “find out those that are core to us, [to] enhance those, [to] make them as efficient as possible”.</p>
<p>Malaysia Airlines’ Group CEO, Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, clearly recognises these problems and that they have been exacerbated by MH370. <a href="http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/corporate-info/press-room/2014/malaysia-airlines-records-rm443-million-loss-for-q-1-2014.html">He says</a> the “whole market” has reacted to MH370 by slowing down demand (it should be <a href="http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/corporate-info/press-room/2014/malaysia-airlines-records-rm443-million-loss-for-q-1-2014.html">noted</a> that the costs associated with MH370, including passenger compensation claims, will be covered by insurance).</p>
<p>He <a href="http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/corporate-info/press-room/2014/malaysia-airlines-records-rm443-million-loss-for-q-1-2014.html">says</a> that, months after the disappearance of MH370, Malaysia Airlines:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>needs to accelerate efforts to improve its revenue stream and better manage [its] … high costs, which have increased in line with greater capacity. This need has become even more urgent for Malaysia Airlines’ future survival … in a market that is not showing any signs of letting up on competition.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nonetheless, as Ang Kok, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital in Kuala Lumpur, has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/malay-airline-results-idUSL3N0O010D20140514">stated</a>, whatever restructuring Malaysia Airlines goes through, it “will have to overcome union opposition, which is very difficult to do”. </p>
<h2>Concerns about airspace security heightened</h2>
<p>The disappearance of MH370 has also led to questions about airspace security, another very expensive cost for airlines, especially international ones. </p>
<p>Various reports suggest that countries (including <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-tightens-airspace-security-after-jets-disappearance/">Israel</a>) have tightened airspace security as the ability of states to effectively monitor their airspace and maritime borders has been questioned following the diversion of MH370 from its flight path. Time Magazine has <a href="http://time.com/26883/malaysian-air-force-slammed-for-failing-to-intercepted-mh370/">suggested</a> that one of the lessons to be learnt from MH370 is that “nobody is watching Malaysian airspace”. </p>
<h2>Air travel remains the safest form of travel</h2>
<p>A passenger recently posted an <a href="https://medium.com/medium-long/c2f8d68a917c">account</a> – “Two Weeks Ago I Almost Died in the Deadliest Plane Crash Ever” – of an episode aboard a United Airlines flight. That <a href="https://medium.com/medium-long/c2f8d68a917c">account</a> read, in part, that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Plane crashes hold a unique place in our fears: the fiery violence, the lack of control — they have a scale and spectacle that makes them loom larger than their actual threat. Similarly, more Americans are killed by vending machines than sharks every year, but more people fear sharks than vending machines.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>James Fallows, aviation correspondent for The Atlantic and author of Free Flight: Inventing the Future of Travel, when asked last week in response to this account whether we should be afraid to fly, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-latest-peril-in-the-skies-saga-should-you-be-afraid-to-fly/371093/">responded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>People who think: first MH370, now this??? should think again. Several million commercial airline flights have taken off and landed safely worldwide since that Malaysian flight disappeared … Life is full of danger, including aboard aircraft. But if other aspects of life had even half the safety-consciousness of today’s commercial air travel system, we’d live in a remarkably less perilous society.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, almost three months ago. Despite comprehensive, almost unprecedented search operations involving dozens of states, the aircraft, or what remains…David Hodgkinson, Associate Professor, Law School, The University of Western AustraliaRebecca Johnston, Adjunct Lecturer, Law School, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253022014-04-08T10:05:21Z2014-04-08T10:05:21ZMH370 should make us rethink how we monitor planes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45785/original/kgdtkjjm-1396882424.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We need more detailed information to adequately track planes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/29233640@N07/13352114125/in/photolist-ma3igD-mfETxy-mfDPuz-mfCWNB-mbQAiX-mBVuYR-mkT5me-mqdBPm-moS7kD-mi4Gxk-m8YtpP-mA1838-mb5XN8-mb6dg7-mb61DE-mb4bRi-mb8ozE-mb78b5-mb6KLn-mb8erE-mb6DFr-mb5ENs-mb5wsu-mb6BNC-mb7yx7-mb6G3Q-mb5ZiV-mb8ayu-mb6yik-mb6rCX-mb7Dwp-mb6mKx-mb5kD6-mb5x5H-mb5SH8-mb5BLp-mb7Abr-hutUmD-mAjjpP-mxtvGa-m41KyD-kR7QbW-mb6WSi-mb6QHK-mb5zZQ-mb5JHm-mb6VSz-mb6hpP-m41Ksg-m42oqV">Robert Couse-Baker</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Search ships may be <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/07/black-box-signals-mh370-malaysian-minister-hishammuddin-hussein">honing in on the black box</a> from missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 after weeks of searching. But whether they are successful or not, the difficulty they have encountered along the way should have us seriously considering how we monitor our aeroplanes.</p>
<p>To prevent another MH370 from happening, tracking and control systems must change. We need closer monitoring and more tamper-proof designs.</p>
<h2>How it works now</h2>
<p>At the centre of speculation about what happened to MH370 is the suggestion that its Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) and secondary surveillance transponder appear to have been <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25232-data-transmission-system-on-mh370-deliberately-disabled.html#.U0LbO61dWdA">switched off or disabled</a>.</p>
<p>Normally, ACARS reports back every 30 minutes about the condition of an aircraft’s systems. These reports go via a service provider back to the airline operations and manufacturers of major systems such as the engines. The secondary surveillance radar on board each aircraft also reports the identity, position and height when interrogated or “pinged” by ground-based air traffic control systems. MH370 also carried an ADS-B, an automatic dependency system that broadcasts location information via radio frequency, was also deactivated.</p>
<p>Flight crews on long-haul commercial flights over oceans or desolate and remote land mass report their position using either high-frequency radio or using satellite communications.</p>
<p>Reports to the relevant air traffic control are made every 45 minutes or so or when a way point is reached. Integrated satellite navigation and on-board inertial navigation systems (INS) provide accurate position information – certainly within ten metres of the true position.</p>
<p>It is likely that the integrated INS aboard MH370 was functioning and being used to navigate the aircraft. Whoever was flying the aircraft was either unable to report its position using satellite communications or chose not to.</p>
<h2>Who is in control?</h2>
<p>ADS-B broadcasts an aircraft’s identity, height, position and velocity to all other nearby aircraft, to avoid collision, and to air traffic control. The introduction of this technology means that planes no longer need to rely on primary radars and archaic voice reporting every 45 minutes from remote positions.</p>
<p>The US requires the majority of the aircraft within its control to be fitted with <a href="http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-air-transport-perspective/2011-11-21/committee-ads-b-not-currently-justified#en">ADS-B by 2020</a> and the EU requires existing aircraft heavier than <a href="http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-international-news/2011-06-29/ads-b-marks-turning-point-europe">5,700 kilograms to be fitted by 2017</a> (and to new aircraft by 2015). Other regions of the world appear to be following the US schedule too. </p>
<p>But in the case of MH370, the ADS-B was switched off. It may now be worth considering making sure this can’t happen in the future. The International Civil Aviation Organisation and the International Air Transport Association should consider isolating ADS-B and ACARS so the crew can’t be disabled from the plane or at least ensure that the equipment will revert to an emergency mode if this is attempted.</p>
<p>Flight-deck personnel have repeatedly argued they must have control of the equipment in case of fire or electrical problems and to some extent these arguments are valid. But electronic equipment and electrical circuits can be designed to work in a safe mode using protected electrical supplies and equipment contained within sealed container surrounded by an inert gas.</p>
<p>Alternatively, slimmed-down instruments could be developed to send essential information if the main equipment is tampered with. The major international airline authorities should now consider the safety and well-being of passengers in order to restore trust in airlines and possibly flight deck crews. The cost of equipment modifications should be weighed against the benefits associated with trust and safety.</p>
<p>As a more immediate step, it’s time we acted on a recommendation made in the wake of the 2009 Air France crash. This was for satellite registration to be increased from once and hour to every 15 minutes so that more accurate location information about planes can be maintained.</p>
<h2>Better black boxes</h2>
<p>The search for MH370’s black box has brought our attention to the limitations of these devices too. If this latest information turns out to be a red herring, the chances of it ever being located diminish daily.</p>
<p>A submerged black box using an ultra-sonic signal at 37.5 kHz generated from its underwater location beacon has a range of around one to three kilometres, but importantly its battery will only last for 30 days. It may be time to consider developing a remote black box that continually transmits flight data to a trusted service provider. </p>
<p>If we are moving towards and “open skies” policy in which planes may no longer be required to fly rigid air corridors over oceans, a redesign is particularly pressing. In this new design, flight deck crews should have no control over communications. As a short-term action the battery life should be increased to at least 100 days.</p>
<p>It will be up the International Telecommunications Union’s standardisation bureau to work with avionics and aircraft manufacturers, satellite operators and airline companies to develop new standards to track aircraft in real time. But it is likely to come up against opposition from the aviation industry, which is notoriously conservative.</p>
<p>That might suggest that national governments need to get involved to push for urgent change. Otherwise, it could take years before we can really reduce the chances of a disaster like MH370 from happening again. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Stupples does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Search ships may be honing in on the black box from missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 after weeks of searching. But whether they are successful or not, the difficulty they have encountered along…David Stupples, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/247272014-03-26T03:24:37Z2014-03-26T03:24:37ZMalaysian government tested in a situation it can’t control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44757/original/cc65bgwk-1395803209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The government of Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak (pictured centre) has come under fire for its handling of the MH370 disaster.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Ahmad Yusni</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the latest press conference on missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak has said there is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-370.html?_r=0">sufficient evidence</a> that the airliner crashed in a remote part of the Indian Ocean. The authorities are confident there are no survivors.</p>
<p>It took 17 days to reach this conclusion, and now the investigation is likely to enter a new phase. Discussions about the search for MH370 are likely to shift in focus from satellites, weather systems and ocean currents to the more human vortex of politics. </p>
<p>The press conferences — usually delivered by a trio consisting of defence and transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein, Department of Civil Aviation director General Azharuddin Abdul Rahman and Malaysia Airlines chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya — have done much to reveal patterns at work in Malaysian public life.</p>
<h2>Unaccustomed to accountability</h2>
<p>The first of these patterns concerns how the government handles its relationship with the public. Domestically, print and broadcast media are tightly regulated. The government lacks strategies for using a liberal media to explain its actions, or to argue a case for continued public support. </p>
<p>Under pressure now to satisfy a news-hungry global public, the Malaysian government has contradicted its own statements repeatedly. It has appeared unprepared to share information with relevant international agencies. Several western media outlets have <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/malaysias-airliner-response-exposes-a-ruling-malaise/2014/03/24/af255ba6-b372-11e3-8cb6-284052554d74_story.html">openly criticised</a> the government’s apparent unwillingness to explain and account for its decisions.</p>
<p>The government has clearly tried to professionalise its approach in recent days. Nevertheless, it cannot shake off accusations from grieving relatives that delayed data releases and mixed messages caused days to be wasted searching the South China Sea. <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/25/mh370-relatives-chinese-passengers-malaysian-embassy">Protesters, including family members</a>, outside the Malaysian embassy in Beijing have claimed this cost lives that could otherwise have been saved. </p>
<p>In Malaysia too, distrust of the government is increasingly likely to be vocalised. Cover-up accusations are circulating widely on social media platforms, alongside an impressive variety of conspiracy theories. In response, an organised backlash is gathering momentum as nationalist organisations claim that western media outlets are determined to give Malaysia a bad name.</p>
<h2>Tougher political contest</h2>
<p>The second pattern relates to the conduct of politics in Malaysia. The very same weekend that MH370 was declared missing, the leader of the parliamentary opposition, Anwar Ibrahim, was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-07/an-malaysian-court-overturns-anwar27s-sodomy-acquittal/5307456">sentenced</a> to a second prison term for the crime of “sodomy”. The conviction was highly contentious.</p>
<p>Anwar remains free on bail but the court verdict <a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/08/Game-over-for-Anwar-in-Kajang-Conviction-disqualifies-Opposition-leader-from-being-candidate-in-byel/">disqualified</a> him from running in a by-election on Sunday in the Selangor state seat of Kajang. Selangor is one of two wealthy, urbanised states held by his coalition, the People’s Alliance. </p>
<p>Anwar was reportedly using the by-election as a tactical defence. The intention was to quell state government infighting, create a “model state” and protect Selangor from government efforts to reclaim it. He would not have had to give up his federal seat in return.</p>
<p>Anwar’s wife, Wan Azizah, stood instead and <a href="http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/new-kajang-leader-celebrates-victory-satay-shop">won comfortably</a>, gaining 60% of votes cast. Her move, too, was tactical. Azizah has previously contested and won parliamentary seats, which she has later given up for Anwar when he has requalified to stand in a by-election. </p>
<p>Such tactics aside, repeated sodomy sentences are widely believed to be a tool for curtailing political competition. They not only disqualify the candidate but tarnish his image before the Malay Muslim majority public by associating Anwar with homosexuality. </p>
<p>Yet there is no evidence that the sentence will work to reduce Anwar’s public support. This new conviction, unlike his previous one in 1998, comes after the People’s Alliance <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2013/06/difficult-post-election-period-beckons-for-malaysia/">won the popular vote</a> in last year’s general election. Malaysian politics is more competitive than ever before in the nation’s 57-year history.</p>
<h2>MH370 opens new political front</h2>
<p>MH370 is a new element in the contest. Pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304017604579447130918078984?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304017604579447130918078984.html">member</a> of the People’s Justice Party – one part of the People’s Alliance and the party led by Anwar himself. </p>
<p>Zaharie had built a flight simulator at home, which police have seized. Newspaper reports have <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/plane-was-piloted-offcourse-in-last-hours-us-20140315-34tdz.html">claimed</a> that police suspect him of deliberately switching off the aircraft’s communication systems. Reports also <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/mh370-pilot-made-call-cockpit-just-plane-took-report-20140320">suggest</a> that Zaharie made a phone call from the cockpit before take-off.</p>
<p>The People’s Justice Party has <a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2014/03/16/missing-mh370-pkr-wild-allegations-by-daily-mail/">refuted</a> a claim that Zaharie was a “political fanatic” who might have been motivated by the Anwar court verdict.</p>
<p>Yet the Inspector-General of Police has <a href="http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/police-say-probing-all-who-came-into-contact-with-mh370">confirmed</a> that investigations are being carried out under Section 130C of the penal code, which deals with hijacking, terrorism and sabotage. He has also cited the Security Measures (Special Offences) Act, related to security and public order, and the Aviation Offences Act.</p>
<p>Claims of political motivations could begin to surface in connection with Zaharie and, by extension, the People’s Alliance and Anwar. MH370’s loss has just raised the stakes in Malaysia’s domestic political contest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amrita Malhi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the latest press conference on missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak has said there is sufficient evidence that the airliner crashed in a remote part of the Indian…Amrita Malhi, Research Fellow, Hawke Research Institute, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/247512014-03-24T16:35:12Z2014-03-24T16:35:12ZThe hunt for MH370’s black box is on, but it may not reveal all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44582/original/c5rh64qn-1395677247.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A typical black box or flight recorder.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The latest developments in the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 strongly suggest that the plane’s wreckage has been found in the southern Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>As the authorities from various countries and companies zone in on the objects identified in an area south west of Australia, they will, among other clues, be looking for the aircraft’s black box recorder in the hope of finding out exactly what caused MH370 to crash and how it ended up so far from its original course.</p>
<p>Black boxes are normally referred to by aviation experts as electronic flight data recorders. Their role is to keep detailed track of on-flight information, recording all flight data such as altitude, position and speed as well as all pilot conversations. It is common for many civil airliners to have multiple devices to carry out these tasks so that information can be gathered more easily in the event of a failure. In most instances, they are used to help in the diagnosis of what may have been the likely cause of an accident.</p>
<p>Even when the passengers walk safely away, such as when US Airways flight 1549 crash landed into the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2009/jan/16/plane-crash-new-york-hudson-river-chesley-sullenberger">Hudson River</a> in 2009, the data is vital for investigators as they try to understand everything about the critical final minutes of the flight.</p>
<p>The first step for the MH370 mission is to find the black box though. The device is actually more often orange or yellow in colour so that it can be found more easily following a plane crash but it is still no mean feat to locate one. It took around two years to find the black boxes from <a href="http://www.airfrance447.com/">Air France flight 447</a>, which crashed in the Atlantic in 2009. The search for MH370 has already proved difficult and ocean currents may carry the device and other parts of the wreckage on an unpredictable journey.</p>
<p>Then, once the black box is found, we can’t be certain that it will yield information. While the devices are designed to tolerate immersion in water, high velocity impact and damage, they are not indestructible. Occasionally data has to be collected from their remains which means there has to be a scientific and <a href="http://www3.open.ac.uk/study/postgraduate/course/m812.htm">forensic process</a> of analysis. Success on this front will depend on how the data is stored as well as the battery life of the black box.</p>
<h2>Can you believe what you hear?</h2>
<p>Technological issues aside, once the recording have been recovered from the black box, investigators will have to decide if what was said by the pilots in the final moments of the flight can be believed. It can really only be treated as one piece of the puzzle. </p>
<p>The opinions of the pilot and co-pilot, no matter how experienced they are, can only be based on what they see and believe as they handle a high-pressure situation. This may not entirely reflect what the actual aviation issue may have been unless there is other data to back it up.</p>
<p>These are all factors the different experienced investigators involved in MH370 will have to take into consideration as they form a scientific opinion about what happened. They will have to set out to prove and disprove each option in a systematic manner, always remaining open to returning to an old idea if new evidence presents itself.</p>
<p>There has been considerable debate about alternative solutions such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-wed-used-the-cloud-we-might-know-where-mh370-is-now-24542">uploading flight data into the cloud</a>. This could have its own unique issues. How much can one airline or government trust the network security being used by whoever is transmitting and storing the flight data? </p>
<p>Cybersecurity is a very <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/protecting-and-promoting-the-uk-in-a-digital-world-2-years-on">real problem</a> these days and we have to face the fact that we will have to make a tradeoff between the security of data and the safety of the aviation systems when we design aeroplanes in the future.</p>
<p>In the wake of MH370, many will call for better systems to be put in place to protect our planes but that will open more doors for would-be hijackers. No nation would want to be the first to trade safety for national security, the speculation and rumour surrounding this latest disaster is likely to make them even more wary of that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24751/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yijun Yu receives funding from ERC, EU, QNRF. He is affiliated with IEEE and British Computing Society.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest developments in the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 strongly suggest that the plane’s wreckage has been found in the southern Indian Ocean. As the authorities from various…Yijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, The Open UniversityAndrew Smith, Lecturer in Networking, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/247522014-03-24T15:12:15Z2014-03-24T15:12:15ZFlight MH370 confirmed lost: experts respond<p>Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak has confirmed that Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, with no survivors. In a press conference, Razak said new information proved “beyond reasonable doubt” that the plane was lost.</p>
<p>The new data came from the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch and private company Inmarsat. The plane disappeared on March 8 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. </p>
<p>Relatives of the passengers were notified of the news by text message. </p>
<p>The Conversation is seeking response from academic experts in various fields to make sense of the conclusion to this tragedy. </p>
<hr>
<h2>How do you recover plane debris from the bottom of the ocean?</h2>
<p><strong>Thomas Furey, Section Manager, Advanced Mapping Services at the Marine Institute</strong></p>
<p>Recovering debris from the deep ocean is a challenging task. The process involves locating the debris using advanced mapping technologies, which is often the hardest part, particularly in deep water or large search areas.</p>
<p>There are a lot of uncertainties in the case of MH370. Even if we had the exact location where the plane went down, the area of seabed on which which the debris could have eventually settled could be very large. Many factors are at play – the angle at which the debris sinks to the bottom, the ocean currents in that area, and the size of the debris. Some commercial companies and government organisations have the modelling capabilities to broadly model the extent of the search area on the seabed in which the debris could end up, but only based on a known location at which a plane hit the sea surface.</p>
<p>Once the approximate area is determined, the mapping procedure can begin. This type of work is typically carried out by vessels that can cost anywhere from US$30,000 to US$50,000 per day. In the case of MH370, the southern Indian Ocean can be as deep as 5km, which means a typical hi-tech vessel might be able to map an area 15km by 20km wide per hour.</p>
<p>The mapping is done by sending multiple soundwaves from the vessel to the seafloor. The time difference between when it is sent out and when the reflected signal is returned to the vessel allows the crew to create a map of the seabed topography, with some information also ascertainable on seabed hardness. As the depth of the ocean increases, the resolution of the surface that can be mapped decreases. This is why finding debris smaller than 50m wide is extremely challenging in these water depths.</p>
<p>Once located, debris can be recovered using remote-controlled equipment that is dropped to the sea floor. A vessel with a remotely operated vehicle would typically be deployed with onboard cameras and robotic arms to investigate and/or recover debris.</p>
<p>In the case of the MH370, if located, there is a chance that whatever debris reaches the floor may remain well-preserved, albeit potentially over a very extensive area of the seabed. Locating the debris is further dependent on whether the seabed is hard, or very soft. The latter could result in partial burial in the upper sediment layers. Factors that will impact the status of the debris include the high pressure at such depths, and chemical decomposition over time as debris is exposed to salt water.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reader question: how do you go about locating the black box signal?</h2>
<p><strong>Matthew Greaves, Head of the Safety and Accident Investigation Centre, Cranfield University</strong></p>
<p>The black boxes (the Flight Data Recorder and the Cockpit Voice Recorder) have Underwater Locator Beacons (ULBs) attached. When immersed in water, these start emitting a pulse, once a second, at 37.5 kHz. How far this can travel depends on a range of things including sea state, temperature gradients, and terrain.</p>
<p>The signal is detected using a hydrophone which is essentially an underwater microphone. By measuring from different positions relative to the ULB, the signal from the hydrophone can indicate direction and strength to try and triangulate the ULB location.</p>
<p>Typical detection ranges are a few kilometres, which of course includes the depth of the ocean (about 3,000m in the area they’re searching) and so they may need to use a towed array (hydrophones in a long cable) which can be towed behind a boat and submerged in the water to shorten the distance between the ULB and the receiving hydrophone.</p>
<p>Comparing this to the current 500,000 square nautical mile search area (down from the original 2.2 million square nautical miles), it’s clear the investigators need a much better idea of where the aircraft crashed before starting the underwater search.This is why the BEA are saying it’s <a href="http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/malaysia.airlines.vol.mh370/malaysia.airlines.vol.mh370.php">too soon to bring in submarines</a> which have sonar arrays that may be able to detect the ULBs.</p>
<p>The ULBs have a finite life of 30 days due to battery life. After the Air France 447 accident, the requirement has changed to 90 days but this needs to be implemented by 2018. The manufacturer has started shipping 90 day ULBs as standard but it’s unclear whether this ULB will last for 30 days or 90 days.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reader question: how was the Inmarsat satellite data used to identify the route?</h2>
<p><strong>David Stupples, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, City University</strong></p>
<p>Soon after the last voice communication was made at 0107 hours by one of the pilots of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, the Very High Frequency radio, <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-wed-used-the-cloud-we-might-know-where-mh370-is-now-24542">Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS)</a> and the the aircraft’s secondary surveillance transponder appeared to have been switched off or disabled. However, the aircraft’s satellite communications system remained active – perhaps the flight deck crew still required navigation data? </p>
<p>To remain connected to the Inmarsat communications satellite, a geostationary satellite over the Indian Ocean, the aircraft’s system sends a registration message hourly which is acknowledged by the satellite. Using timing information Inmarsat scientists calculated that the aircraft either flew in Northern or Southern arc from its last reported position over the strait of Malacca. </p>
<p>Evidence from Thai and Burmese primary ground radars confirmed that the aircraft did not fly in the Northern arc. Inmarsat then used theories from the Doppler effect to analyse the seven registration “handshakes” made between the aircraft and the satellite. The scientists were then able to plot the aircraft’s movement along the southern arc to approximately where hitherto unidentified ocean debris has been located. Although this evidence in not conclusive, it is compellingly strong.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reader question: has media coverage been over the top?</h2>
<p><strong>Professor Karin Wahl-Jorgensen, Director, Research Development and Environment, Cardiff School of Journalism</strong></p>
<p>The extent to which particular disasters become prominent in the news is determined by a complex range of factors. The disappearance of flight MH370 was, by any measure, a spectacular news story. It had drama, it had mystery, and it resonated with popular culture discourses of aeroplane disappearances, as embodied in the popular television series, Lost. </p>
<p>It was also an ongoing and unresolved story – for journalists, a gift that keeps on giving. It was the kind of event which invited other resonant story lines, including ones of terrorism and conspiracy. Because the search for the missing aeroplane quickly came to involve a huge number of actors and countries, it also became a major international news story with reverberations across a globalised media landscape.</p>
<p>One of the factors shaping coverage of disasters – whether “man-made” or “natural” – is what’s called a “calculus of death” at work, based on crude body counts as well as proximities of geography, culture and economics. Plane crashes are typically highly newsworthy, because they involve a larger number of deaths as the result of one discrete incident, as opposed to the ultimately far more significant number of deaths caused by the slow, but constant trickle of automobile accidents.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Malaysia Airlines response</h2>
<p><strong>Morgen Witzel, Fellow, Centre for Leadership Studies, University of Exeter</strong></p>
<p>Malaysia Airlines’ decision to use text messages to inform families of passengers on MH370 their loved ones were dead must go down as one of the most crass management decisions of all time.</p>
<p>Malaysia Airlines has signally failed in its duty of care to the families of those passengers. In fairness, hard information in this case has been difficult to come by, and the authorities in both Malaysia and China have been baffled by the aircraft’s disappearance. But that is not an excuse. The passengers on MH370 were the airline’s responsibility. The families are entitled to support. Senior executives of the airline should be in Beijing and Kuala Lumpur talking directly to them, promising assistance, promising to hold their own inquiry to ensure such an event never happens again.</p>
<p>This is not just a humanitarian issue; it is also a matter of good business. The dilatory and – to use the word again – crass response to the deaths of its passengers has done incalculable damage to Malaysian Airlines’ reputation and its brand. Why should anyone, passengers, employees, investors, trust this brand again?</p>
<hr>
<h2>Malaysia’s response</h2>
<p><strong>Adam Tyson, Lecturer in Southeast Asian Politics, University of Leeds</strong></p>
<p>The Malaysian authorities responsible for handling the MH370 crisis were unprepared for the level of international scrutiny that began on 8 March. The mishandled case can be explained in part by the prevailing political system in Malaysia. The ruling party is publicly accountable but certainly enjoys the strong backing of national newspapers such as Utusan Melayu and television networks such as TV3, creating a layer of insulation from scrutiny. </p>
<p>Senior officials tend to operate in a highly controlled hierarchical environment. Malaysian officials of rank do not deal well with criticism, and often accuse domestic activists and critics of conspiratorial motives – an effective diversionary tactic in most cases.</p>
<p>Officials on the frontline of the extraordinary MH370 case were subjected to relentless questioning. There was no script to follow, and unlike other recent international controversies (the Anwar Ibrahim trials), no usual suspects to blame. Chinese journalists and investigators were particularly vigilant, and the growing microblog community caused further confusion and anger by rapidly spreading rumours. </p>
<p>There was no hiding place for aristocrats such as Datuk Azharuddin, the Director General of Civil Aviation, or Dato’ Seri Hishamuddin, the transport minister. It was only a matter of time before Malaysian commentators set aside their grief and channelled their anger toward Hishamuddin, who implausibly has double ministerial duties (transport as well as defence) and is the cousin of current Prime Minister Najib Razak.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Searching the southern Indian Ocean</h2>
<p><strong>Chris Hughes, Professor of Sea Level Science at the University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>It would be hard to choose a more complicated region of the ocean to be searching for debris. The search area west of Australia lies just on the northern flank of the <a href="http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/southern/antarctic-cp.html">Antarctic Circumpolar Current</a>, a huge ocean current encircling Antarctica which is in many ways similar to the atmospheric jet stream, or a series of jet streams.</p>
<p>It is now 16 days since flight MH370 was lost. In that time, debris could have drifted by several hundred miles from where, it is presumed, the plane hit the water, and the patch of debris could have spread by a substantial fraction of that distance. </p>
<p>So, even once debris has been found and confirmed to be from the plane, finding any sunken remains will still be a big challenge. The ocean in that region is about 3,500 to 4,000 metres deep, and finding sunken wreckage will involve combing a vast area with advanced sonar imaging technology. </p>
<p>Then there is the challenge of reaching it. Only specialised equipment can operate at the pressures of more than 350 atmospheres which are involved.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/recovering-mh370-will-be-difficult-in-a-complex-unforgiving-ocean-24758">Read more here</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Recovering the black box</h2>
<p><strong>Yijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, and Andrew Smith, Lecturer in Cisco Networking, Open University</strong></p>
<p>The first step for the MH370 mission is to find the black box. The device is actually more often orange or yellow in colour so that it can be found more easily following a plane crash but it is still no mean feat to locate one. It took around two years to find the black boxes from <a href="http://www.airfrance447.com/">Air France flight 447</a>, which crashed in the Atlantic in 2009. The search for MH370 has already proved difficult and ocean currents may carry the device and other parts of the wreckage on an unpredictable journey.</p>
<p>Then, once the black box is found, we can’t be certain that it will yield information. While the devices are designed to tolerate immersion in water, high velocity impact and damage, they are not indestructible. Occasionally data has to be collected from their remains which means there has to be a scientific and <a href="http://www3.open.ac.uk/study/postgraduate/course/m812.htm">forensic process</a> of analysis. Success on this front will depend on how the data is stored as well as the battery life of the black box.</p>
<p>Technological issues aside, once the recordings have been recovered from the black box, investigators will have to decide if what was said by the pilots in the final moments of the flight can be believed. It can really only be treated as one piece of the puzzle. </p>
<p>The opinions of the pilot and co-pilot, no matter how experienced they are, can only be based on what they see and believe as they handle a high-pressure situation. This may not entirely reflect what the actual aviation issue may have been unless there is other data to back it up.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hunt-for-mh370s-black-box-is-on-but-it-may-not-reveal-all-24751">Read more here</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Families dealing with grief</h2>
<p><strong>Peter Kinderman, Head of the Institute of Psychology, University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>The argument for sending everyone a text message is that you don’t want the news to drip out in an uncoordinated way so you can see why they’d say, “Let’s have a single message.”</p>
<p>It sounds brutal, it sounds like a bad way to do things and it could seem ill-advised, but one of the things that is really bad for people is to have uncontrolled rumours. So I can see why you’d want to give this message very clearly and in a way you can literally take away. But it’s important that the families are taken aside, told what they need to know and have it followed up with written information. </p>
<p>But there are other limitations, apart from the image that this conveys. Anyone who receives that text message would immediately have their questions. If you’re sending someone a text message, every single person will have a different question: When did you decide? Have you seen bodies? Is this based on statistical probability? Do you know why? All of the questions will come out and those are not easy to respond to via text message.</p>
<p>The first things the families need now is information – they need information more than anything else. Authorities need to tell them as much as they know, as clearly as they can.</p>
<p>The second thing they need is to have a sense of community and shared support for each other. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/coping-with-the-trauma-of-missing-flight-mh370-24481">people go through shared tragedies</a>, those tragedies are somewhat easier to bear if you’re part of a community. At this stage, I wouldn’t necessarily try to offer them therapy or counselling, I’d try to offer them facts and try to build a sense of community.</p>
<p>We mustn’t second guess people’s psychological reactions. As a psychologist I wouldn’t try to interpret those reactions. Whatever is happening should be considered normal. </p>
<p>What can the media do? They <a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-mh370-why-does-the-media-show-relatives-who-are-in-emotional-turmoil-24305">shouldn’t use grief as spectator sport</a>. I know it’s very attractive, but you should leave them alone. Please don’t think the media can do something helpful for these people. Don’t take photos when somebody is doing something slightly unusual like rocking or praying or getting angry; that’s what people do. They’re not odd, they’re not strange and they’re not particularly interesting. Don’t judge them, and leave them alone. All shades of human emotional response are normal and natural.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>More to come.</em></p>
<p><em>Do you have more questions about MH370? Leave them in the comments below and we’ll try to find experts to answer them.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak has confirmed that Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed in the southern Indian Ocean, with no survivors. In a press conference, Razak said new information proved…Matthew Greaves, Head, Safety and Accident Investigation Centre, Cranfield UniversityAdam Tyson, Lecturer in Southeast Asian Politics, University of LeedsAndrew Smith, Lecturer in Networking, The Open UniversityChris Hughes, Professor of Sea Level Science, University of LiverpoolDavid Stupples, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, City, University of LondonKarin Wahl-Jorgensen, Director of Research Development and Environment, School of Journalism, Cardiff UniversityMorgen Witzel, Fellow of the Centre for Leadership Studies, University of ExeterPeter Kinderman, Professor of Clinical Psychology, University of LiverpoolThomas Furey, Section Manager, Advanced Mapping Services, Marine InstituteYijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/246502014-03-21T06:07:00Z2014-03-21T06:07:00ZGovernment links complicate Malaysia Airlines’ crisis response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44413/original/8dddgbkz-1395336157.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysia Airlines' comms strategy should be grounded.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/monstermunch/3327611491/">Andy Mitchell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even as we learn more about the disappearance of flight MH370, there is still a huge amount to find out about what went wrong.</p>
<p>There is no evidence to suggest that the cause of the airplane’s disappearance had anything to do with operational oversight or management mishap on the part of Malaysia’s national flag carrier, Malaysia Airlines. The crisis appears to be caused by forces beyond the control of any airline’s management team. </p>
<p>But their subsequent handling of the crisis has been far from competent. There are structural reasons for this: it turns out the airline’s close relationship with the Malaysian government, so useful in the past, may have actually hindered its efforts to put customers first and deliver the best response to the disappearance of MH370. </p>
<p>The airline’s response has been characterised by a lack of prompt and detailed information sharing with the media and relatives of missing passengers, defensive PR posturing, and not displaying a sense of urgency or a clear process for effective crisis management. </p>
<p>This managerial ineptitude has gone from bad to worse, accentuated by heavy-handed security measures when dealing with the relatives of the disappeared. What commercial enterprise dispatches security staff to physically prevent the protesting relatives of missing customers from speaking to international journalists? Clearly not one paying head to the Chinese proverb, “a crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind”. </p>
<p>The opportunity here is to show the watching world that in the face of unexplained calamity, Malaysia Airlines is a company that cares for its customers more than anything else and will stop at nothing to ensure their wellbeing – or at least to provide closure to their loved ones.</p>
<h2>Here’s how it’s done</h2>
<p>Trust and reliability are at the heart of most relationships between customer and business. When things go wrong, companies must confront them unequivocally, act immediately and deliver decisive solutions. </p>
<p>This is what Johnson & Johnson, the pharmaceutical and consumer products corporation, did in a <a href="http://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/02C2/Johnson%20&%20Johnson.htm">classic case</a> of good crisis management. A handful of its best selling painkillers Tylenol had been laced with cyanide, resulting in the deaths of seven people. Johnson & Johnson placed consumers first, immediately recalling 31m bottles of Tylenol and replacing them with safer, more securely packaged products. </p>
<p>Despite an initial drop in market value of $1 billion and losing 30% of its share of the painkiller market, predictions that the company would never recover from the crisis proved unfounded. It had done the right thing and acted without hesitation or equivocation to put customer safety ahead of corporate interest. People recognised this and within a short space of time, market value picked up and sales rebounded. But if handled differently, the Tylenol crisis could have destroyed the company.</p>
<p>The lessons for Malaysia Airlines are clear. If attitudes and actions are not altered at once, its future may be fraught with further challenges and commercial crises.</p>
<p>Despite recent restructuring and financial pressures, this is an airline with a long history (founded in 1937) and a reputation for quality service and high levels of safety. However its corporate strategy is complicated – even restrained – by the interests and priorities of key stakeholders, most notably in this instance, its main shareholder, the government of Malaysia. </p>
<p>This isn’t usually a problem. In most instances, companies benefit from preferential access to government and regulatory bodies. A strategy that synchronises making money with political and regulatory activism and social and environmental engagement is best for any company. Done properly, it can ensure that senior management successfully deliver on a company’s overarching purpose and business objectives. </p>
<p>But when the interests of the company, and the customers it serves, become diluted or even subjugated by other interests – personal, societal or political – competitive strategy is undermined. That appears to be the case here; the airline has in fact suffered from its close links to government. </p>
<p>Why, for instance, since the disappearance of MH370, do we hear more from Malaysia’s prime minister and transport minister than we do from the CEO of Malaysia Airlines? </p>
<p>This crisis is not about saving face for the government of Malaysia, navigating tense inter-state relations (particularly with the emerging Chinese superpower), or tiptoeing through a geopolitical minefield. It is first and foremost about finding out what happened to Malaysia Airlines’ missing passengers. </p>
<p>Subsequently, it is about restoring market and customer confidence in a company that employs more than 20,000 people and is integral to Malaysia’s economy. The rest is just noise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Lawton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even as we learn more about the disappearance of flight MH370, there is still a huge amount to find out about what went wrong. There is no evidence to suggest that the cause of the airplane’s disappearance…Thomas Lawton, Professor of Strategy and International Management, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/245422014-03-18T15:15:01Z2014-03-18T15:15:01ZIf we’d used the cloud, we might know where MH370 is now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/44202/original/48pxd4pf-1395151063.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Still no signal.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Luong Thai Linh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the biggest ever hunt for a missing plane continues, many are beginning to wonder if we will ever know what happened to Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. If the plane has crashed, it has been suggested that it could take up to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/combing-ocean-for-malaysia-jet-tougher-than-two-year-french-hunt.html">two years</a> to find its wreckage.</p>
<p>But if MH370 had been fitted with technology that made use of the cloud it may never have been lost in the first place. The cloud is a cluster of computers that provides reliable computing and storage as a service to large numbers of requests from computers with limited capabilities, such as those on board a plane or inside a mobile phone.</p>
<p>Instead of relying on the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-26544554">combination</a> of GPS, primary and secondary radar, and aircraft communications addressing and reporting systems (ACARS) to keep track of planes, we should be making sure they send regular flight information to the data centres in the cloud. Planes would then send information such as aviation signals and pilot conversations as a compressed digital stream efficiently through satellite networks.</p>
<p>We still don’t know if MH370 disappeared because of a technical failure or a <a href="http://mcs.open.ac.uk/ban25/papers/computer09.skies.pdf">malicious security</a> breach. It has been mooted that the pilot or a member of in-flight staff turned off the communication channels and used unusual flying manoeuvres to avoid being detected by the primary radars on ground and the secondary radars on board nearby planes. There are ways of responding to this scenario too.</p>
<p>Although transmission responders (also known as transponders) can send a unique four-digit code to identify the plane as a way to help aeroplanes maintain a safe distance from each other when in flight, these can be turned off by pilots. If we are now in a world in which we have to question the intentions of pilots, there are more security implications to consider.</p>
<p>A conceivable solution to this problem is to run from the ground a simulation of a plane’s flight while it is in the air and to selectively compare the <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/29450/">meaningful changes</a> of information with those intermittently sent from the pilot and on board systems. This would enable people on the ground to verify information such as altitude and course in real time and to double check that all is well. In normal circumstances this system would minimise risks and increase safety of the plane and its passengers. In case of foul play on board, the system would be able to spot that the information sent from the plane was incorrect.</p>
<h2>When is a plane like bitcoin?</h2>
<p>Spotting misinformation would be possible if we made better use of the cloud too. Using verifiable algorithms at scale we could tell encrypted communication data on the plane is not altered by checking its mathematical <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hash_function">hash function</a>, which is the application of a mathematical algorithmic calculation to a set of data that will give a unique result. Any subsequent changes to the data will change the “hash value” of the data set. Hashing is used to evidence a fact that data has not been altered.</p>
<p>This type of check is already used in <a href="https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works">bitcoin</a> verifications. Computing a large number of hash values and verifying their authenticity against fakes requires a substantial amount of computation power, so cloud computing, <a href="http://www.nvidia.com/object/what-is-gpu-computing.html">multi-core graphics processing units</a> and <a href="http://www.techopedia.com/definition/2357/application-specific-integrated-circuit-asic">application-specific integrated circuits</a>, which are specially designed to do just one job and do it well, are used to enable multiple tasks to be carried out at the same time.</p>
<p>A specifically designed protocol such as <a href="https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works">bitcoin</a> relies on thousands of volunteers to use their own computers to verify computations for a small monetary return. While doing something similar to verify air traffic data would not be done for money, we might be able to call on people to give up computing power as a way of improving general flight safety for passengers since many of us fly at some point in our lives.</p>
<p>After switching to the cloud, traffic controllers would be able to notice abnormalities even if the pilots refused to cooperate and switched off its communication with the ground. They would be in a much better position than they are in the case of MH370. Cheating the ground or vice versa is substantially harder because parts of the data collected from the plane are produced automatically as it moves so no one can hack into it.</p>
<p>The groundwork for this system of <a href="http://oro.open.ac.uk/37975/1/forensics.pdf">proactive verification</a> is being laid already as part of an <a href="http://asap-project.eu">ongoing research programme</a>. The mystery surrounding flight MH370 should galvanise authorities to help find the resources and enough good will to have it fully developed and implemented.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yijun Yu receives funding from EU, QNRF, Microsoft, RealTelecom, and Huawei. He is affiliated with IEEE and British Computing Society.</span></em></p>As the biggest ever hunt for a missing plane continues, many are beginning to wonder if we will ever know what happened to Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. If the plane has crashed, it has been suggested…Yijun Yu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Computing and Communications, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/58262012-03-16T04:53:26Z2012-03-16T04:53:26ZAre lowest airfares really guaranteed? Travel industry practices under scrutiny in Flight Centre case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8641/original/fjpj9jx4-1331785312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C18%2C907%2C953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flight Centre versus the ACCC: commonplace travel industry practices are under the spotlight.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s biggest travel agency chain Flight Centre has been accused by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) of illegal price fixing for attempting to collude with Singapore Airlines, Malaysia Airlines and Emirates. </p>
<p>The lawsuit filed in the Federal Court alleges that on six occasions between 2004 and 2009, Flight Centre tried to persuade the airlines to withdraw their internet-based discounted seats, which undercut the prices offered by the agency network. Flight Centre’s decision to fight the case, rather than settle, means that long established and commonplace travel industry practices are in the spotlight and of public interest.</p>
<p>Though the court may take years to determine any wrongdoing, it is timely to reflect on the travel industry’s inter-firm relationships and their appropriateness in an online and fast changing business environment. Are consumers really getting the best deals, or is the “Lowest Airfare Guarantee” boast of Australia’s most powerful travel retailer only possible because the cheapest POSSIBLE consumer prices have already been ruled out by an insistence on taking their cut?</p>
<h2>A brewing brawl</h2>
<p>The case raises challenging issues about the appropriateness of the price related dealings which occur between travel “principals” (for instance, airlines and hotels) and their “agents” (for example, retailers such as Flight Centre). In the battle for consumer hearts and minds and an atmosphere of freewheeling assertions about the “consumer interest”, a public brawl is likely to draw in different parts of the industry with unpredictable and risky consequences. </p>
<p>For consumers, travel businesses are generally “good guys” working hard to deliver the best possible fares (“Lowest Airfare Guarantee” and “Unbeatable”), unlike banks, which are widely viewed as profiteers. In a public spat involving airlines and a travel agency chain when questions are being asked about whether prices really are “unbeatable” or are artificially high, the “good guys” label will be harder to sustain.</p>
<p>Debates about the most effective system for distributing air tickets have occurred ever since mass international tourism boomed in the post-war period. In this context a key question behind the ACCC price fixing dispute is whether “direct selling” of tickets by principals should be a prominent feature of the travel industry landscape, or whether using an agent is the norm. Agencies such as Flight Centre undoubtedly provide important value-adding services to consumers by packaging the various components of travel (for instance, accommodation, flights and attractions). </p>
<h2>Online inducements</h2>
<p>And it is a successful business with a loyal and high-yielding customer base - in 2011, its profit was $249 million. But in the world of social networking where customers may prefer to go online to purchase a simple point-to-point airfare, should airlines be prevented from offering potential customers an inducement (say a cheaper price that includes no agent commission plus bonus frequent flier points)? Hotels commonly urge their repeat customers to make a direct online booking next time in return for a discount. Expressed simplistically, the principal is saying to the customer, “by cutting out the middleman, I’ll share the saving with you”. </p>
<p>Direct selling by airlines to customers has been surprisingly rare in Australia, with most relying on third parties such as Flight Centre and resisting the temptation to make savings by undercutting.</p>
<p>However the industry dynamics are changing. A combination of rising aviation fuel costs, increased seat capacity (like the A380 superjumbos) and a proliferation of new entrants (from China and the Middle East) have squeezed airline profits and made direct selling online a tempting way to exercise greater control over distribution.</p>
<h2>Stagnating inbound tourism </h2>
<p>And unlike retailers such Flight Centre which have been positioned to capitalise on Australia’s outbound travel boom, airlines have been exposed to stagnating inbound tourism with recessionary conditions in many source markets. Though Flight Centre is undoubtedly a major Australian employer and generator of income, it is the airlines which have been working harder to support inbound tourism. </p>
<p>It may be argued that airlines should routinely be capable of offering cheaper seats than those available through third parties, particularly when delivered online and to repeat customers. Did Flight Centre attempt to influence its airline suppliers because it needs to support a costly distribution infrastructure (“bricks & mortar”) that is only relevant to some airline customers? Is maintaining this infrastructure in the consumer interest if the system and network of relationships which support it has the effect of retarding the availability of cheap seats supplied direct by the airlines? </p>
<p>Again the court will need to assess the evidence, but in the interim the question will be asked, if I go direct to my airline, will that provide me with the best available price? And if not what is preventing this from occurring?</p>
<p>Whether the court finds for or against Flight Centre is yet to be determined. However the fact that the ACCC case has been launched against an organisation which, however successful, represents an older-style high street style of retailing means that it will be closely studied by all travel industry principals including airlines and also by Flight Centre’s competitors such as Wotif and Webjet which have put all their faith in the online approach to distribution. </p>
<p>Flight Centre’s success has kept the beacon of the high street travel agent alive. An unfavourable court decision could signal high tide for old-style travel distribution and for the “bricks and mortar” retailer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian King is a non-executive director with Destination Melbourne</span></em></p>Australia’s biggest travel agency chain Flight Centre has been accused by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) of illegal price fixing for attempting to collude with Singapore Airlines…Brian King, Professor of Tourism, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.