tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/marion-marechal-le-pen-33199/articlesMarion Maréchal-Le Pen – The Conversation2017-05-10T11:36:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/775042017-05-10T11:36:00Z2017-05-10T11:36:00ZSo long, Marion: why Le Pen’s niece is quitting politics<p>According to <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/09/legislatives-cent-onze-circonscriptions-dans-le-viseur-du-front-national_5124747_4854003.html">some sources</a>, the Front National (or <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-change-name-after-marine-le-pen-defeat/">whatever it is about to start calling itself</a>) thinks it has a good chance in 111 of the 577 seats in the forthcoming parliamentary election in France (taking place on June 11 and 18).</p>
<p>But Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, niece of party leader Marine Le Pen and one of the party’s only two outgoing deputies, won’t be among the candidates. She has said that she will not stand for re-election in the south-eastern Vaucluse department for personal reasons. She also plans to step down as leader of the Front National group in the Provence-Alpes-Côtes d’Azur regional assembly.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/09/35003-20170509ARTFIG00176-fn-marion-marechal-le-pen-envisage-de-renoncer-a-ses-mandats.php">Le Canard enchaîné</a> first published rumours of this story in April. Maréchal-Le Pen has a two-year-old daughter with whom she wants to spend more time. The marriage to the father ended in a divorce last year, which she reportedly blames on her political career. But she decided to wait until the election was done and until after the first meeting of the party’s policy committee on Tuesday to formalise the announcement.</p>
<p>The daughter of Marine Le Pen’s elder sister Yann, Maréchal-Le Pen created something of a stir when she was elected to the National Assembly in June 2012. At the age of just 22, she was the youngest deputy ever. In fact, she had already appeared on a poster with her grandfather, Jean-Marie Le Pen, at the age of two. Her father was president of the Front National youth wing in the 1990s and she stood without success in local and regional elections in the Paris region in 2008 and 2010.</p>
<p>It wasn’t just her age that caused a sensation in 2012. Maréchal-Le Pen took the seat from a right-wing republican who had represented the constituency for 26 years. And although her aunt had scored well there in the 2012 presidential election (with 31% against her national score of 18%), the result was still a surprise. </p>
<h2>Rapid rise</h2>
<p>Maréchal-Le Pen’s photogenic qualities and willingness to take on the media appeared to make her the next in line for the family business – the poster girl for the Front National for years to come. There was talk of a cabinet post, perhaps the justice ministry, in the event of her aunt winning. Among the party’s ‘Marinesceptics’, she was seen as a vision of a ‘<a href="https://oeilsurlefront.liberation.fr/actualites/2017/05/09/marion-marechal-le-pen-vers-un-retrait-de-la-vie-politique_1568360">post-mariniste</a>’ future.</p>
<p>Although she was never really a rival to her aunt, her success in winning a seat in parliament – while Marine Le Pen failed in her attempt to win in her adopted heartland in the north of France – certainly put their relationship on edge. Maréchal-Le Pen also remained closer, temperamentally and ideologically, to her grandfather in the conflict that led to the party’s founder being expelled from the party. He, for his part, called her announcement an act of <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/09/35003-20170509ARTFIG00272-jean-marie-le-pen-le-retrait-de-marion-est-une-desertion.php">“desertion”</a>.</p>
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<p>Maréchal-Le Pen was more economically liberal, socially conservative, and more concerned with the politics of identity than Marine Le Pen. She is said to have <a href="http://droites-extremes.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/16/marion-marechal-le-pen-en-visite-chez-les-identitaires-de-paris-fierte/">attended meetings</a> of <em>identitaires</em> groups, which are committed to ideas of nativism and even white supremacy. However, she does not speak at these meetings, and only, she has always claimed, goes as an observer.</p>
<p>She also attended services among hardline Catholic groups and was frustrated by Marine Le Pen’s refusal to endorse the <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-anti-gay-marriage-tea-party-french-style">Manif’ pour Tous</a> movement, a group formed to oppose the legalisation of same-sex marriage. But her presence helped to keep the Catholic far-right <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2016/12/14/marion-marechal-le-pen-s-affiche-avec-philippe-de-villiers_5048639_823448.html">on side</a>.</p>
<h2>A party split</h2>
<p>Maréchal-Le Pen’s political successes, as well as her espousal of the more “traditional” values of the Front National saw her described as the embodiment of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/jerome-fourquet/front-national-sud-nord-france_b_3718135.html">“le FN du sud”</a>, in contrast to the “FN du nord”, in its turn represented by Florian Philippot and his more “national proletarian” style. This geographical division within the party was not necessarily seen as a problem. The two wings of the party could actually appeal to and draw in different electorates, and the strategy seemed to work, given the undeniable success of the Front National in local, regional and European elections – and now in the presidential election itself.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the ideological and personal differences between the two branches run deep. Maréchal-Le Pen and Philippot detest one another, and when his political line won out, she was indignant. The Le Pen election programme, with its insistence on a strong state, protectionism, and the appropriation of a number of other left-wing themes provoked profound concern within the party.</p>
<p>The conduct of the 2017 campaign, culminating in the television debate on May 3 was also a disappointment, as was the final result. Even before the final round of voting, Maréchal-Le Pen committed a faux pas when she seemed to admit the party had accepted defeat, but that 40% would be a great result for her aunt all the same. This was taken as <a href="http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/les-regrets-de-marion-marechal-le-pen-apres-le-debat-presidentiel-1157757.html">confirmation</a> that this is what the Le Pen camp expected as a minimum. In the end, she took just <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/french-election-results-analysis/">33.9%</a> of the vote. </p>
<p>If the restyled FN – perhaps the Patriotic and Republican Alliance – does poorly in the general election, Philippot could well be relegated. Marion Maréchal-Le Pen will only be able to enjoy that from the sidelines. But don’t bet against a comeback somewhere down the line. Marine Le Pen once swore she would never take up politics as a career, and look what happened. Her niece is still young, and the Le Pens are nothing if not resilient. “Ce n'est qu'un au revoir” – it’s a goodbye, for now, but not farewell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite being widely tipped as the next leader of the Front National, the young deputy is dropping out.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773042017-05-08T11:09:09Z2017-05-08T11:09:09ZWhy election loss doesn’t spell au revoir for Le Pen or the Front National<p>It’s often said that there are no prizes for coming second. Yet in many ways coming in as the runner up in France’s 2017 presidential election is an opportunity for the Le Pens and the Front National.</p>
<p>Beaten convincingly by centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron in the second round of voting, Marine Le Pen might have been expected to appear downbeat. But lessons can be learned and strategies developed for the next presidential contest in 2022.</p>
<p>Le Pen’s campaign in 2017 was less than impressive. Unimaginative compared with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s innovative use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-hologram-a-family-scandal-and-a-man-on-the-march-the-french-election-just-got-really-exciting-72605">holograms</a>, she repeated much of her programme from the 2012 presidential elections and relied heavily on the traditional pitstops of a presidential campaign: petting animals and bringing croissants to (on this occasion striking) workers.</p>
<p>Even when it came to Le Pen’s use of social media, her campaign team repeated their tactics of 2012, reiterating core messages from Le Pen’s speeches and allowing the odd personal message from the candidate herself. It was a far cry from Donald Trump’s use of online platforms to connect with voters.</p>
<h2>Old themes are the best</h2>
<p>Ironically for a candidate who has sought to tone down the extremist image of her party and to appear more presidential, Le Pen came into her own when her carefully-managed image began to slip.</p>
<p>This was particularly clear when in a radio interview she pointed, unprompted, to the French education system’s teaching of the occupation of France in World War II as an example of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/opinion/marine-le-pens-denial-of-french-guilt.html?_r=0">French pride</a> being dented. Le Pen claimed that those responsible for deportations of Jews during the occupation did not represent France. Echoing the myth established by Charles de Gaulle that all of France resisted and the Vichy regime was not legitimate, she argued that children should be taught that the Nazis were behind the infamous <a href="http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledge/arts/roundups/">Rafle du Vel d’hiv</a> round-ups. This was despite historical evidence that Prime Minister Pierre Laval and the head of police, René Bousquet, were just as complicit as the Nazi authorities. Le Pen spoke with authority on the issue in a way that did not come across when discussing the economy.</p>
<p>Le Pen also thrived during the period just before the first round, after the killing of policeman Xavier Jugelé in central Paris on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/25/macron-le-pen-french-election-candidates-memorial-police-officer-killed-champs-elysees-attack">April 21</a>. Linking immigration and criminal activity has always been a mainstay of the Front National, and Le Pen jumped on the chance to point to the French state’s failure to tackle radical Islam in the banlieues of major cities. This was also a key theme of her campaign before the second-round vote, addressing venues in Nice and Paris with promises to deport immigrants suspected of radical activity.</p>
<p>Yet Le Pen slipped up badly in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-vs-macron-after-an-acrimonious-debate-the-french-will-now-choose-their-next-president-76995">head-to-head debate</a> with Macron. Instead of proposing concrete solutions to the problems of the the suburbs, she lifted rhetoric straight out of Nicolas Sarkozy’s playbook, pointing to “thugs” and “vandals” living in housing estates. This might not have turned off existing supporters but for the undecided voter, the absence of solutions will have appeared resolutely unpresidential. </p>
<h2>Mixed messages</h2>
<p>Le Pen’s campaign was one of mixed messages. She sought distance from the extremist reputation of the Front National but was consistently most energised when on home turf discussing immigration, terrorism and France’s past.</p>
<p>The policy of “<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21560280">dédiabolisation</a>” (detoxifying the party after the Jean-Marie Le Pen years) has thus had two very different consequences. In making the Front National appear more acceptable, many of the party’s old themes, like immigration, have themselves become more mainstream. So while Le Pen’s success in the first round did not come as a shock, Marine appeared torn in the 2017 campaign between where she feels most comfortable – when talking of putting “France first” or when seeking to present a more refined presidential image.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/168355/original/file-20170508-20729-1t30004.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Le Pen with her niece Marion Marechal-Le Pen.</span>
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<p>Despite her loss, all this adds to the experience of Le Pen, her campaign team and the wider party. In a future debate, she will know to avoid entering into a slanging match with her opponent and to focus on concrete policies which tie into traditional Front National themes. At the same time, an energised Le Pen is a convincing Le Pen. Since her temporary <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-marine-le-pen-resign-from-her-party-its-all-part-of-the-plan-76662">resignation of the leadership</a> seems to have made little impact as an electoral tactic, a future Front National candidate may as well continue to embrace the party and its members.</p>
<p>There are many battles to come: from the 2019 European elections to the 2020 French regional elections, in which the Front National stands a good chance of success. The party can, and will, finesse its tactics before the next presidential campaign in 2022.</p>
<p>Marine Le Pen has done much to boost the chances of the Front National, taking the party very nearly to the Elysée this time around. Yet some within the party may well have decided that it was Marine, not the Front National’s membership or its past, who let slip the chance to win the ultimate prize.</p>
<p>Lurking behind Marine is her niece, the intelligent, amiable, devoutly Catholic Marion Maréchal-Le Pen. As the party implements the lessons of the failed 2017 campaign, Marion will remain prominent in the Front National’s electioneering. All is by no means lost for the Front National, but if Marine fails again in 2022 then it may well prove to be au revoir Marine and bonjour Marion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77304/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victory for Emmanuel Macron is a blow for the far right, but there are lessons to be learnt for 2022.David Lees, Teaching Fellow in French Studies, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/687652016-11-14T14:47:52Z2016-11-14T14:47:52ZHow Marine Le Pen could become the next French president<p>Never one to miss a bandwagon when it passes, Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Front National, was one of the first European politicians to <a href="http://www.thelocal.fr/20161109/marine-le-pen-quick-ton-congratulate-donald-trump">congratulate Donald Trump</a> on his election victory.</p>
<p>For the demagogic populist Le Pen, Trump’s win, like the Brexit vote, is the victory of the “people” against the “elites”.</p>
<p>Setting aside the ludicrous nature of anyone claiming the victory of a billionaire who inherited his riches as a blow against the established order, Le Pen’s intervention is important. France is facing its own presidential election in April and May of 2017 and Le Pen aims to win it. </p>
<p>On the face of it, her chances would appear slim. Unlike in the US, the French electoral system is designed to only deliver a president who is endorsed by an absolute majority of the electorate. But Le Pen’s rival parties are in disorder, which could ease her path, unless the electorate can pull together. </p>
<h2>The system</h2>
<p>There are two rounds of voting in the French presidential election – set two weeks apart. In 2017, the first round will be on Sunday April 23, the second on Sunday May 7.</p>
<p>An unlimited number of candidates can stand in the first round, provided they gather a certain amount of support from local parliamentarians. If one of them achieves an absolute majority in the first round (50% plus one vote), then they are pronounced president. The fragmented nature of French politics means, however, that this has never happened since the system was set up in 1965. Even then, when the early opinion polls a month before the vote had Charles de Gaulle being re-elected with 60% of the vote, he was forced into a second ballot. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Le Pen talks to Andrew Marr about her ambitions.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Only the first two placed candidates go into the second ballot. This run-off is to ensure precisely that the winner has the endorsement of the majority of voters who turn out. The French could not find themselves being governed by someone who did not obtain a majority.</p>
<p>There is every possibility that Le Pen will be ahead after the first round in April 2017 so the question is how much chance she has in the second round.</p>
<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/europe/2002/french_elections_2002/default.stm">In the past</a>, voters have united to prevent the far-right from winning the run off, but France’s other main parties are failing to offer new faces for voters – and recently we’ve seen all too well what can happen when the establishment fails to address the discontent of the people. They are also consumed by their own problems.</p>
<p>The left appears to have collapsed, while right-wing voters are deeply divided about who their candidate should be. The Republican party and some of its centre-right allies are about to hold their first ever primary election to make this decision, with former president Nicolas Sarkozy and former prime minister, the septuagenarian Alain Juppé, the current front runners. </p>
<p>Le Pen’s discourse of “the same old faces and the same old promises” has found some traction against this backdrop. With seven more-or-less familiar figures fighting it out, the contest hardly has the look of new blood about it. It doesn’t help that Sarkozy has various investigations hanging over his head and that Juppé was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/jan/30/france">stripped of the right</a> to stand for election or hold office for two years in 2004.</p>
<h2>United against the front?</h2>
<p>Voters on the left could probably see themselves voting for Juppé if he ended up in the second round with Le Pen but the same is not necessarily true in a Sarkozy/Le Pen contest. They would find it much more difficult to rally to his cause to keep out the Front National than they did in 2002, when they rallied en masse to Jacques Chirac. For all his faults, Chirac never adopted the sort of hardline rhetoric Sarkozy later took up, nor did he share the latter’s neoliberal economic agenda. In the second round in 2012, Sarkozy drifted so far to the right that even some politicians in the centre today would have problems voting for him if he wins the primary.</p>
<p>Juppé’s challenge, on the other hand, will be to convince voters on the right that he is their candidate, and not one of some soft centre.</p>
<p>This, then, is one scenario Le Pen will be hoping for. But there is another. If, by some miracle, she finds herself in a run-off against the left, then we really will be in uncharted waters.</p>
<p>France’s left-wing voters have, on many occasions, shown themselves willing to vote for the right to prevent the Front National taking power – most recently in the second round of France’s <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-election-results-national-front-national-marine-le-pen-exit-poll-a6771876.html">regional elections</a> in December 2015, when they blocked Le Pen and her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen from taking control of two regional assemblies. But there is no proof that voters on the right would do the same thing.</p>
<p>So can Le Pen win the French presidential election? Yes, she can.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Front National leader is feeling confident after Brexit and Trump.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.