tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/matt-canavan-17039/articlesMatt Canavan – The Conversation2022-04-29T02:57:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820542022-04-29T02:57:37Z2022-04-29T02:57:37ZNo, Mr Morrison – the safeguard mechanism is not a ‘sneaky carbon tax’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460469/original/file-20220429-9923-6889m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4414%2C2945&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison this week <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/labor-planning-sneaky-carbon-tax-pm/video/28aed487db5d2da4dedf638a27dd139b">claimed</a> Labor was planning a “sneaky carbon tax” should it win power, and Nationals senator Matt Canavan <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/climate-change-war-erupts-as-nationals-mp-matt-canavan-declares-net-zero-is-dead/news-story/7018e748ff20ea64d7204171ee8a5df8">declared</a> the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 was “dead”.</p>
<p>We can expect both these concepts to be thrown around a fair bit during the federal election campaign, so it’s worth getting a few things straight right now. </p>
<h2>The safeguard mechanism is not a carbon tax</h2>
<p>The Coalition’s claims of a “sneaky carbon tax” are a reference to Labor’s plans to tighten an existing policy known as the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/regulations-and-standards/national-greenhouse-and-energy-reporting-scheme/safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a>.</p>
<p>The safeguard mechanism was introduced by the Abbott Coalition government in 2016 – and it is not a carbon tax.</p>
<p>The mechanism was supposed to “safeguard” gains achieved through the Coalition’s then-named Emissions Reduction Fund, by ensuring the emissions cuts were not offset by increases elsewhere in the economy.</p>
<p>The rule applies to about 200 large industrial polluters that directly emit more than 100,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, in sectors such as electricity, mining, gas, manufacturing and transport. </p>
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<img alt="steam rises form industrial plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460471/original/file-20220429-26-zx2w24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The safeguard mechanism applies to Australia’s biggest polluters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Under the safeguard mechanism, these polluters must keep their emissions below historical levels, known as a baseline. If they exceed the baseline, polluters can either buy carbon credits to offset the excess pollution, or apply to the Clean Energy Regulator for the baseline to be adjusted. </p>
<p>Baseline adjustments were allowed because no overall cap was placed on the amount of emissions produced. Without a cap, the regulator has greater flexibility to make adjustments. </p>
<p>This flexibility has meant the safeguard mechanism is ineffectual. In fact, since its implementation, companies subject to the mechanism have actually <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-is-labor-s-safeguard-mechanism-is-it-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-or-a-sensible-way-to-cut-emissions-20220427-p5agkd.html">increased</a> their emissions by 7% overall.</p>
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<p>So, Labor has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/03/anthony-albanese-commits-labor-to-emissions-reduction-target-of-43-by-2030">promised</a> to tighten the safeguard mechanism if it wins the election. This means large emitters will be less able to adjust their baselines, and gradually, their baselines will be reduced. </p>
<p>This approach coheres with the original purpose of the safeguard mechanism, and is supported by the Business Council of Australia and others.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reputex.com/research-insights/report-the-economic-impact-of-the-alps-powering-australia-plan/">Analysis suggests</a> Labor’s policy could avoid a substantial 213 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions entering the atmosphere by 2030. </p>
<p>Labor has indicated that emissions-intensive industries, such as large coal and gas exporters, will not be forced to cut pollution in a way that makes them less competitive internationally. </p>
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<img alt="man in hard hat and glasses" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460473/original/file-20220429-25829-o5tcv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Labor plans to tighten the safeguard mechanism, a policy introduced by the Abbott government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Australia’s never had a carbon tax</h2>
<p>Let’s be clear. No Australian government has implemented a carbon tax – and any suggestion to the contrary is inaccurate. </p>
<p>The spectre of a so-called “carbon tax” has haunted Labor ever since the 2010 election campaign, when then Prime Minister Julia Gillard <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gillard-rules-out-imposing-carbon-tax-20100816-1270b.html">ruled out</a> implementing one.</p>
<p>Upon being returned to office, Gillard <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-10/gillard-reveals-carbon-price-scheme/2788842">announced</a> plans to legislate a carbon price, in the form of an emissions trading scheme. </p>
<p>Not all carbon pricing amounts to a carbon tax. But the Abbott-led Coalition nonetheless sought to conflate the two and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/abbott-condemns-illegitimate-carbon-tax-20110914-1k8kf.html">accused</a> Gillard of breaking a key election promise.</p>
<p>Greenhouse gas emissions, and associated climate change, come with costs. Extreme weather such as droughts and heatwaves damages crops and drives up demand for health care. Flooding, bushfires and sea level rise damages property. </p>
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<p>Carbon pricing seeks to ensure those responsible for much of these costs – large polluters – either reduce their emissions or help pay for the social and environmental damage they cause. </p>
<p>Labor’s emissions trading scheme required polluters to report and pay for every tonne of carbon dioxide they produced, or face a financial penalty. The scheme was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-its-imminent-demise-the-carbon-price-has-cut-emissions-29199">success</a>: compliance was high and emissions reduction targets were <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Carbon-price-10-years-on-web.pdf">met</a>.</p>
<p>The policy, however, was short-lived. The Abbott government repealed it in July 2014.</p>
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<img alt="homes damaged by fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460475/original/file-20220429-17-jfrfjh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Climate change causes ‘external’ costs such as bushfire damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Net-zero by 2050 is very much alive</h2>
<p>So what of Senator Canavan’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2022/apr/27/matt-canavan-declares-net-zero-policy-is-all-over-opening-rift-in-the-coalition-video">claims</a> this week that net-zero emissions targets were “dead” and should be scrapped?</p>
<p>Canavan this week told the ABC: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“[UK Prime Minister] Boris Johnson said he is pausing the net zero commitment, Germany is building coal and gas infrastructure, Italy’s reopening coal-fired power plants. It’s all over. It’s all over bar the shouting here”.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Late last year, Australia committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. That means cutting greenhouse gas emissions as far as possible, and then, for emissions that cannot be avoided, removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Net-zero emissions by 2050 is needed avert the worst impacts of climate change. Australia is also required to meet the target under its Paris Agreement <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Australia%20First/Australia%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20Update%20October%202021%20WEB.pdf">obligations</a>.</p>
<p>All Australian states and territories have committed to the net-zero goal. <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/vic/consol_act/cca2017109/">Victoria</a>, the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/act/consol_act/ccaggra2010356/s6.html">ACT</a> and <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/tas/consol_act/ccaa2008225/s5.html">Tasmania</a> have gone further and legislated net-zero as a target.</p>
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<img alt="man in suit talks behind microphones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460477/original/file-20220429-25834-x3x5dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Senator Canavan wrongly claims net-zero is ‘dead’ .</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Australia may be a long way off achieving net-zero by 2050, particularly in the absence of a robust and credible carbon price. But Canavan is wrong to suggest the goal has been abandoned globally. </p>
<p>Some countries have <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/26053/countries-with-laws-policy-documents-or-timed-pledges-for-carbon-neutrality/">already achieved</a> net-zero. <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/global-net-zero-commitments/">The UK</a> has a legally binding net-zero target by 2050 and Germany has <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-plans-to-achieve-carbon-neutrality-by-2045/av-57440187">pledged</a> to get there by 2045.</p>
<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left countries such as Germany worried about their reliance on Russian gas, and this may see a short-term increase in fossil fuel use in Europe.</p>
<p>But the world remains largely committed to the net-zero target. </p>
<p>Just a few days ago, German finance minister Christian Lindner outlined the importance of the low-carbon transition to the nation’s energy security, <a href="https://greendealnews.org/2022/03/green-energy/renewable-energy-is-freedom-energy-germany-speeds-all-green-target-to-2035-to-ease-russia-grip/">describing</a> renewable energy as “freedom energy”.</p>
<p>So, contrary to Canavan’s suggestion, the world’s shift to clean energy is likely to accelerate in the longer term.</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It wouldn’t be a modern Australian election campaign without the words “carbon tax” being thrown around.So lets clear a few things up.Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1703882021-10-21T10:17:58Z2021-10-21T10:17:58ZGrattan on Friday: Can Barnaby Joyce sell his supporters the net zero he’s previously trashed?<p>Barnaby Joyce will probably never again have so much power as he does at this moment, in his trading with Scott Morrison over support for the net zero by 2050 target.</p>
<p>Yet it’s a negotiation forced on him, for an objective he doesn’t believe in and which he fears could cost him and his party at the election.</p>
<p>Joyce never accepted relinquishing the Nationals leadership, never stopped his quest to seize the job back. He and his supporters undermined Michael McCormack, in effect dubbing him Morrison’s doormat and insisting that on climate policy the prime minister would walk all over him.</p>
<p>Now Joyce has found himself needing to deliver to Morrison for Glasgow, albeit not as much as the PM wanted – the Nationals would not contemplate a bigger 2030 target – but enough to put the party into an awkward position in some of its seats.</p>
<p>For all his rambunctious style, Joyce doesn’t want the Nationals to blow up Morrison or the government. But nor does he want to self-destruct by losing seats.</p>
<p>He used opposition to net zero as weaponry in overthrowing McCormack. Not long ago Joyce was as strongly against it as his close mate Senator Matt Canavan, who will never sign up to it, whatever deal the Nationals get from Morrison. Canavan says: “In the past decade, opposing radical climate action has won us the support of blue-collar workers and saved the Nationals from the ashes.”</p>
<p>In the jam in which he finds himself, Joyce has decided to lead by following. He declared from the start the Nationals’ position would be decided by the party room, not by him or even the leadership team. One National describes him as “facilitator-in-chief”.</p>
<p>Morrison is holding himself in but must be privately apoplectic. The PM’s preferred style, when it comes to governing, might be characterised as “we are me”. He’s all about control, discipline, paying lip service to his troops, but denying them any real clout.</p>
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<p>Now here is Joyce not just giving his party a voice, but with frontbenchers running free and wild.</p>
<p>Which brings us to the Nationals’ Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, the woman Morrison forced to fall on her sword when the sports rorts affair became dangerously hot.</p>
<p>In the Senate McKenzie was asked, did she agree with Canavan that if Morrison adopted net zero without Nationals’ support it would be “ugly”, and did Joyce agree?</p>
<p>“I think that it will be ugly. I agree with Senator Canavan,” McKenzie said. “You’ll have to check with Barnaby about whether he doesn’t.” </p>
<p>This followed multiple interviews when McKenzie said the Nationals had been dudded in the delivery of promises in the past and it shouldn’t happen again.</p>
<p>The Nationals have been anarchic over the past few years but, in another irony in this imbroglio, they have shown organisation and, despite their internal differences, a degree of solidity in dealing with Morrison.</p>
<p>Of course if Joyce wasn’t the leader, he’d be destabilising. Indeed, McCormack pointedly urged the party room this week to show integrity and not to leak like it did when he was leader.</p>
<p>A committee drew together the Nationals’ demands to be put to Morrison; it included McKenzie, deputy leader David Littleproud, resources minister Keith Pitt and Kevin Hogan, assistant minister to Joyce. It’s now being left to Joyce to clinch the deal with Morrison, before it comes back to the party room on Sunday.</p>
<p>The party sees itself in a pivotal moment in which it must extract guarantees. Nationals have said their focus is on support and security for regional industries and jobs rather than a string of specific projects financed by a big buckets of money (“this is not about 30 pieces of silver”, says McKenzie), though it would be surprising if a good amount of funding isn’t involved.</p>
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<p>Money is one thing, and not that painful to provide now the government doesn’t talk “debt and deficit”. Demands, for example for changes to environmental legislation, can be harder because they can set off fresh arguments for the government.</p>
<p>The trade-offs are important in the selling challenge ahead, but they’re not a magic carpet. Morrison might have a host of lobby groups and a News Corp tabloid campaign on side, but there is plenty of angst in the Nationals’ Queensland base and among some high-profile conservative commentators (such as Sky’s Peta Credlin) who appeal to that base.</p>
<p>In electoral terms, the Nationals’ fears are focused on central Queensland, where they hold three seats: Flynn, Capricornia and Dawson. The first two are mining seats; Dawson is economically and in other ways also tied into mining.</p>
<p>According to Nationals sources, polling in central Queensland shows strong opposition to net zero among their hard-core supporters.</p>
<p>All three of these seats have seemingly very safe margins. But that can be deceptive.</p>
<p>Flynn is on 8.7% now, but went into the 2019 election on 1%. Capricornia sits on 12.4%; before the last election it was on 0.6%. Dawson has a 14.6% buffer, compared to 3.4% in 2019. Queensland is a state of big swings.</p>
<p>In Flynn and Dawson the members, Ken O'Dowd and George Christensen respectively, are retiring.</p>
<p>Of the three seats Flynn is the most vulnerable, with Labor running a strong candidate, Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett.</p>
<p>The Nationals are worried about votes being eroded on the right in Queensland. One Nation will be active and Clive Palmer will be throwing around a large amount of money in advertising.</p>
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<p>Joyce has always sold himself as an effective retail politician. But he’s politically stronger when he’s on the attack than defending a policy – let alone one he doesn’t actually believe in.</p>
<p>There’s a lot of the contrarian in Joyce. The government will invoke modelling to reassure doubters that net zero won’t harm jobs, indeed that it will help create them. But this week in parliament, Joyce was casting aspersions on modelling in general. “Modelling is not a letter from God. It is no more than the opinion of people.”</p>
<p>After Morrison flies off next week with net zero in his bag for the Glasgow climate conference, Joyce will be acting prime minister, fronting cameras and microphones, promoting what the Nationals have received in the deal and making the best he can of the 2050 target.</p>
<p>Both he and his prime minister will be nervous about how he’ll go in those early days when he’s in the spotlight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Liberal and National parties attempt to agree to net zero, Barnaby Joyce needs to find a way to sell a policy to his electorate that he doesn’t believe inMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1696322021-10-12T19:11:35Z2021-10-12T19:11:35ZThe net-zero bandwagon is gathering steam, and resistant MPs are about to be run over<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425849/original/file-20211012-26-18b837y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5246%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be moving towards securing Coalition agreement for a net-zero emissions by 2050. It comes weeks out from the crucial COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, where Australia’s record on global climate action will be heavily scrutinised.</p>
<p>Horse-trading between the Liberals and Nationals is under way, and the government is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/industries-to-be-shielded-in-federal-bid-for-net-zero-20211012-p58zcj.html">reportedly</a> set to reveal its climate targets and technology roadmap early next week. </p>
<p>But first, Morrison must secure majority support from the National Party. A few vocal Nationals figures, including Matt Canavan, Keith Pitt and George Christensen, have sought to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/26/i-havent-even-begun-to-fight-matt-canavan-to-defy-nationals-party-room-if-majority-back-net-zero">block</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/25/australian-jobs-more-important-than-net-zero-nationals-minister-says">moderate</a> a net-zero commitment. </p>
<p>Some of their concerns are valid – regional Australia will shoulder a big burden in the transition to a low-emissions economy. But the tides of international and domestic affairs are turning. Most government MPs have accepted the inevitable, and the issue will not break the bonds of an enduring Coalition.</p>
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<h2>Net-zero and the Nationals</h2>
<p>The Nationals do have legitimate economic and political reasons for being concerned about a net-zero target. </p>
<p>First, a move away from coal and gas would lead to job losses in regional areas. And the federal government’s policy playbook to support rural and remote areas is extremely thin, relying heavily on spillover economic benefits from agricultural development and mining. </p>
<p>This means the Nationals, as the self-proclaimed regional party, have few economic levers to pull. Retaining mining investment is both politically and, at regional and local scales, economically <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6407349.pdf">important</a>. </p>
<p>Second, policy mechanisms such as a price on carbon or caps on greenhouse gas emissions could add to costs for people living in regions, and to agricultural industries such as beef production, where reducing emissions will <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-and-australias-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass-168474">not be</a> straightforward or cheap. </p>
<p>Third, the Nationals’ opposition is somewhat in line with the party’s ideology and electoral positioning. It has historically pitched itself as a defender of national economic interests and “traditional” industries such as farming and mining. </p>
<p>At the same time, the party has long opposed, on economic and social grounds, post-materialist influences such as deep Green environmentalism. </p>
<p>Finally, the Nationals, along with the Liberals, have successfully used climate change policies to wedge the Labor Party and paint it as part of a supposed Labor-Green axis. This tactic worked well in central Queensland in the last federal election.</p>
<p>So for some Nats, conceding to net-zero might be seen as an ideological capitulation and yet more evidence of their ineffective efforts to stand up for the bush. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nationals-signing-up-to-net-zero-should-be-a-no-brainer-instead-theyre-holding-australia-to-ransom-168845">The Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they're holding Australia to ransom</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="three people stand in field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425851/original/file-20211012-21-1vbmpyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nationals capitulation on net-zero may be seen as evidence they are not standing up for farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Our Cow/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Net-zero gathers (renewable) steam</h2>
<p>The problem for the Nationals resistance movement, however, is that it’s becoming increasingly isolated. </p>
<p>Both the Biden administration in Washington and the United Kingdom government are <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-overstates-morrisons-climate-ambition-as-australia-uk-trade-agreement-reached-162790">pressuring</a> Australia to commit to the 2050 net-zero target.</p>
<p>And several jurisdictions, such as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/australian-exporters-pay-the-price-with-european-carbon-tax/100379998">European Union</a>, are considering or planning <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/15/what-does-the-eus-carbon-tariff-proposal-mean-for-australia">carbon tariffs</a> on imports from nations without strong climate policies.</p>
<p>In the context of recent shifts in the international policy landscape, railing against such tariffs looks anachronistic. </p>
<p>As National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) chief executive Tony Mahar <a href="https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/7348275/eu-carbon-tariff-avoids-ag-for-now-but-sector-cant-be-naive/">said</a> earlier this year, “as an industry dependent on exporting, Australian agriculture must be ready to adjust to a more carbon-conscious trading future”. </p>
<p>Domestically, state governments, including those with Coalition incumbents, have <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan">shifted</a> to net-zero-type targets. So too have important lobby groups, <a href="https://nff.org.au/media-release/nff-calls-for-net-carbon-zero-by-2050/">such as</a> the NFF and the <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/achieving_net_zero_with_more_jobs_and_stronger_regions">Business Council of Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, moderates in the federal Liberal Party are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/28/scott-morrison-meets-with-liberal-mps-worried-coalition-will-appease-nationals-on-net-zero.">gearing up</a> to argue for a net-zero plan and against large compensation for particular industries. </p>
<p>All this leaves the Nationals’ resistance movement rather short of influential allies.</p>
<p>Opponents could, of course, roll out the implied threat of breaking the Coalition. But moderate Nationals have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-28/climate-change-net-zero-2050-coalition-divide-nationals/100496264.">hosed down</a> suggestions a net-zero target is a make-or-break issue for the Coalition partners. And historically, Coalition breaks – especially in government – are extremely rare.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-why-the-morrison-government-needs-a-net-zero-target-not-a-flimsy-plan-169015">5 reasons why the Morrison government needs a net-zero target, not a flimsy plan</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men ion masks in front of flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425854/original/file-20211012-15-1sbzugt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison is under pressure to adopt stronger climate policies, including from US President Joe Biden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sealing the deal</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, even Nationals in favour of a net-zero target want assurances for the regions and agricultural industries. </p>
<p>An obvious and relatively easy policy response is to ensure new <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-05-31/renewable-energy-zone-plan-targets-nsw-regional-businesses/12299652">renewable energy projects</a> in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-10/qld-palaszczuk-andrew-forrest-hydrogen-gladstone/100527670">regions</a> deliver local economic benefits, such as through favourable purchasing and employment strategies or even dividend sharing.</p>
<p>Second is to ensure these and other projects continue to drive down electricity costs. This is especially important for energy-intensive agricultural production such as irrigated crop and pasture production. Where possible, regional landholders could receive income from local energy ventures as hosts of, or even partners in, projects. </p>
<p>Third, funding for land-based carbon storage could be expanded. </p>
<p>Australian landholders have made a huge contribution to national emissions offsets over decades, largely through vegetation management which draws carbon from the atmosphere and stores it in plants and soil. Such management has largely been the result of state government regulation preventing land clearing and farmers have historically received little direct benefit in return.</p>
<p>The federal government is now <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/climatechange/cfi">contributing funding</a> for landholders who create land-based carbon sinks under the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>. But the resulting projects have caused local concerns and the carbon storage outcomes are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-scheme-used-by-australian-farmers-reveals-the-dangers-of-trading-soil-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-161358">uncertain</a>. </p>
<p>So expanding such schemes will not be easy. It must be done in a way that meets integrity standards, and without alienating local people. </p>
<p>The Morrison government is understandably averse to direct carbon pricing, given the toxic climate politics of the last decade. It’s instead focused on low-emissions <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/technology-investment-roadmap-first-low-emissions-technology-statement-2020">technological solutions</a>. </p>
<p>This might lead to new low-emisisons technologies for the regions, such as conversion to renewable energy and innovative transport systems. But there’s no timeline yet for when such technology will materialise.</p>
<p>The Nationals are right to demand detail in the climate policy deal. But the net-zero bandwagon cannot be stopped – at best, the Nationals must settle for perhaps quite modest compensation for their constituents.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-green-its-degraded-landscapes-for-just-6-of-what-we-spend-on-defence-168807">Australia could 'green' its degraded landscapes for just 6% of what we spend on defence</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nationals’ concerns about the effects on regional Australia are legitimate, but greater forces in favour of a net-zero emissions target will likely push the policy over the line.Geoff Cockfield, Honorary Professor in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1688452021-09-28T06:14:51Z2021-09-28T06:14:51ZThe Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they’re holding Australia to ransom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423499/original/file-20210928-16-9fe5vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C4104%2C2674&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/deadset-against-morrison-confirms-discussions-underway-on-net-zero-amid-pushback-from-nationals-20210926-p58utl.html">reportedly</a> developing a plan for Australia to adopt a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. Climate change was a central focus of the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-praises-australia-s-record-of-digging-stuff-up-as-he-announces-clean-energy-summit/f5d77405-bd14-40a0-8652-29ad89924282">Quad talks</a> in Washington which Morrison attended in recent days, and he is under significant international pressure to adopt a net-zero target ahead of climate talks in Glasgow in November.</p>
<p>Morrison is very late to the party on issue of net-zero – and lagging far behind public opinion. A recent Lowy poll <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/climatepoll-2021">showed 78%</a> of Australians support the target.</p>
<p>But standing firmly in Morrison’s way is the Coalition’s junior partner, the Nationals. The words of key Nationals figures including Resources Minister Keith Pitt and pro-coal senator Matt Canavan suggest net-zero is the hill they will die on. And Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, not exactly a climate warrior, has indicated he’s yet to be convinced on the merits of the target.</p>
<p>Ultimately though, this is just bad strategy from the Nationals. It burns valuable political capital for no good reason, and abrogates responsibility to their own constituents.</p>
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<h2>Not much of a target at all</h2>
<p>First, a net-zero emissions target is a really obvious position of compromise for the Nationals specifically, and for a reluctant Australian government more generally.</p>
<p>Every state and territory in Australia has already adopted this target for 2050, or bettered it. And most of our international peers have a net-zero target including <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">the United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges">Japan</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7779596/climate-change-emissions-targets-canada-2030-trudeau/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/germany-raise-2030-co2-emissions-reduction-target-65-spiegel-2021-05-05/">Germany</a>, <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/france-switzerland-present-roadmaps-to-reach-net-zero-by-2050/">France</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">United States</a>.</p>
<p>Getting to net-zero by 2050 also doesn’t necessarily require immediate or significant emissions cuts. As critics including Greta Thunberg and former IPCC chair Bob Watson <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">have argued</a>, the targets can create the impression of action without requiring immediate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2021/taking-stock-assessment-net-zero-targets">Research shows</a> many jurisdictions with a net-zero target do not have robust measures in place to ensure they’re met, such as interim targets and a reporting mechanism.</p>
<p>And the timeframe for net-zero – whether 2050 like most nations, or 2060 as per China – is way beyond the political longevity of our current government MPs. That means those now in parliament will be spared much of the political pain of implementing policies required to meet the target.</p>
<p>Finally, pursuing net-zero emissions (rather than just zero-emissions in sectors where that is feasible) allows fossil fuel companies to offset their climate damage, by buying carbon credits, rather than stopping their polluting activity. It also potentially allows for fairly <a href="https://theconversation.com/betting-on-speculative-geoengineering-may-risk-an-escalating-climate-debt-crisis-119889">speculative efforts</a> to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere via geoengineering. </p>
<p>For these reasons and more, the net-zero goal is in often criticised as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">dangerous trap</a> for doing very little on climate change – which appears to be the goal of many in the Nationals.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/betting-on-speculative-geoengineering-may-risk-an-escalating-climate-debt-crisis-119889">Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Nationals MPs Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423487/original/file-20210928-30-tqeatx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nationals MPs Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt are vocal opponents of any moves to net zero.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Adapting to change</h2>
<p>In opposing the net-zero target, the Nationals often point to potential damage to the nation’s mining and farming sectors, primarily a loss of jobs and economic growth. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-push-to-carve-farming-from-a-net-zero-target-is-misguided-and-dangerous-154822">Some Nationals</a> have called for those sectors to be carved out of any net-zero target.</p>
<p>On the question of agriculture, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-clock-is-ticking-on-net-zero-and-australias-farmers-must-not-get-a-free-pass-168474">research</a> released by the Grattan Institute this week shows it’s getting increasingly hard to argue the sector should be exempt from the target – its emissions are simply too great. </p>
<p>And there is much that can be done right now to cut agriculture emissions, if the government does more to encourage farmers to adopt the right technologies and practices.</p>
<p>On mining, the Nationals are fighting a losing battle. Soon, the world will no longer want our coal. As others <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-promising-new-dawn-is-ours-for-the-taking-so-lets-stop-counting-the-coal-australia-must-leave-in-the-ground-167527">have noted</a>, we must prepare for the change and diversify the economy, rather than lamenting what’s still left in the ground. And Australia can <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-it-is-entirely-possible-for-australia-to-phase-out-thermal-coal-within-a-decade-167366">easily</a> replace coal-fired electricity generation with renewable energy, backed by storage.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/agitated-nationals-grapple-with-climate-debate-as-former-minister-chester-takes-a-break-from-party-room-168736">Agitated Nationals grapple with climate debate, as former minister Chester takes 'a break' from party room</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the Quad talks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423486/original/file-20210928-24-1a1fztd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he is working on a net-zero by 2050 plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Vucci/AP/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>For whom do the Nationals speak?</h2>
<p>By refusing to compromise on a net-zero target, the Nationals are burning all sorts of political capital they could potentially wield with the Liberals on a range of issues. The Nationals would have held particular sway over Liberals concerned about holding on to their inner city seats in a 2022 election.</p>
<p>More importantly, the position of Keith Pitt, Matt Canavan and other intransigents in the Nationals isn’t just an abandonment of future generations. Nor is it only a rejection of our responsibilities to vulnerable people in all parts of Australia and the world, or our duty of care to other living beings.</p>
<p>It’s also a spectacular betrayal of their own constituencies. Rural Australia will be <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/564abfd96ebac5cbc6cf45de2f17e12d.pdf">disproportionately affected</a> by climate change, particularly in the form of higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing disasters like drought and bushfires. And the long-term economic costs of inaction for rural constituencies will be potentially catastrophic. </p>
<p>It’s for these reasons that organisations like the National Farmers Federation have specifically <a href="https://nff.org.au/media-release/nff-calls-for-net-carbon-zero-by-2050/">called for</a> a commitment to net zero emissions.</p>
<p>In the 2019 election, the Nationals <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">received</a> just 4.5% of the vote in the lower house, with the Liberal Nationals of Queensland achieving just 8.7% (as a proportion of the national total). In both cases, it was less still in the Senate.</p>
<p>Yet despite speaking on behalf of a small fraction of the country, the party is holding Australian climate policy to ransom.</p>
<p>Maybe we can’t get all in the National Party to suddenly recognise their obligations to the planet and its inhabitants. But surely they can be convinced to represent the interests of rural voters? Time – what little we have left – will tell.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-by-2050-even-if-scott-morrison-gets-the-nationals-on-board-hold-the-applause-163074">Net zero by 2050? Even if Scott Morrison gets the Nationals on board, hold the applause</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>The National Party’s position on net-zero is wrong, for so many reasons. Not least, it’s a betrayal of rural Australia.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1553822021-06-21T03:58:21Z2021-06-21T03:58:21ZThe National Party used to be known for its leadership stability — what happened?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407346/original/file-20210621-35715-1huxczg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Barnaby Joyce is <a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-ousts-michael-mccormack-to-regain-nationals-leadership-163076">back as Nationals leader</a>, after a spill in Canberra on Monday morning. </p>
<p>This is the latest development in an unusually tumultuous period for the junior Coalition partner, beginning with Joyce’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/23/barnaby-joyce-resigns-nationals-deputy-prime-minister-australia">reluctant resignation</a> in 2018 and punctuated by his unsuccessful leadership challenge in <a href="https://theconversation.com/richard-di-natale-quits-greens-leadership-as-barnaby-joyce-seeks-a-tilt-at-michael-mccormack-131029">February 2020</a> and ongoing discord and rebellion over climate policy. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-nationals-in-crisis-with-pressure-on-michael-mccormacks-leadership-163067">View from The Hill: Nationals in crisis, with pressure on Michael McCormack's leadership</a>
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<p>All this from a party that has a long history of relatively stable leadership, being out of the national media and settling disagreements with the Liberals behind closed doors</p>
<p>Some might argue the instability in recent years is the result of Joyce’s personality, ambition and behaviours. As well as the media’s focus on leadership and the contagious nature of leadership instability in other parties over the last decade.</p>
<p>But there are also other factors to consider. </p>
<h2>Party differentiation</h2>
<p>The federal Coalition has the characteristics of one party while formally remaining separate entities, which has been a successful, but unusual political arrangement. </p>
<p>In Canberra, party leaders largely act as one party, negotiating policy outcomes or implementing decisions. When in government, the Nationals leader gets the deputy prime ministership, Nationals MPs sit in Cabinet and there are joint party room meetings and joint Senate tickets. </p>
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<p>Yet the Liberals and Nationals also have their own separate party room meetings and occasionally <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/coronavirus-by-election-eden-monaro-executive-government/12229362">compete against each other</a> for lower house seats when a previous member does not recontest a seat. During election season, the Nationals go on “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-20/ewart-on-the-wombat-trail-the-history-of-the-nationals/5905454">the Wombat trail</a>” as partial policy independents. </p>
<p>On the campaign trail, the Nationals speak the language of rural populism with its tropes of rural disadvantage and urban indifference or hostility, with the “urban enemy” implicitly including the Liberal Party. </p>
<h2>The problem here</h2>
<p>The problem for the Nationals is they struggle to deliver adequate agricultural support and rural services in a post-deregulation world. So they have no signature programs that show their policy value. </p>
<p>They fight for residual programs such as drought support or regional funding that are limited in scope, time and impact and subject to considerable criticism as to effectiveness and fairness. </p>
<p>The Nationals need new generation signature issues that deliver for regions, while still representing the values and aspirations of an earlier Australia. For example, large-scale irrigation projects and mining developments, but even many Liberals don’t want these. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, their vocal support for the coal industry only holds sway among select voters (and turns off others). </p>
<h2>Geography</h2>
<p>The Nationals are also trying to overcome geographical divides. At the federal level, National Party power is split between Queensland and NSW. The latter generally dominates party leadership, contributing to easily animated northern resentments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-acting-pm-michael-mccormack-on-net-zero-2050-and-prospects-for-a-new-coal-fired-power-station-162853">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Acting PM Michael McCormack on net zero 2050 and prospects for a new coal-fired power station</a>
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<p>The formation of the <a href="https://eprints.usq.edu.au/38600/">Liberal National Party</a> (LNP) in Queensland in 2008 further complicated matters. </p>
<p>It created a party now pressing for greater influence within the Coalition, especially after the 2019 federal election, where the LNP was seen to have “delivered” government for the Coalition.</p>
<p>The results in the so-called “coal seats” of central Queensland (such as Flynn and Dawson) have given further encouragement to the resources focus. Joyce, though now a NSW representative, started his political career in Queensland and it is presumed much of his support for his leadership challenges came from the sunshine state. </p>
<h2>Leadership</h2>
<p>Balancing the Coalition relationship, with different strands of the Nationals’ base is a difficult task for a leader. And is seen as a significant reason for Joyce’s return. </p>
<p>Last century, longstanding National leaders, such as John McEwen and Doug Anthony, possessed combinations of strong personality, electoral leverage, political acumen and good relationships with the Liberal (or predecessor parties) leaders. From <a href="https://australianpolitics.com/parties/nationals/federal-national-party-leaders-since-1920">1922 to 1984</a>, the average length of tenure of a Nationals leader was more than 12 years, with two of them serving more than 17 years. </p>
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<p>No other party comes close to this record of keeping multiple leaders in office for long periods — and this now seems a historical quirk. Since 1988, there has been an increased rate of turnover, though most transitions still occurred reasonably peacefully.</p>
<p>More recent leaders have been confronted with the declining electoral position of the Nationals and the discontent of people in the bush. Most — such as Tim Fischer, John Anderson and Warren Truss — opted for being collaborative Coalition partners and keeping disputes behind closed doors. McCormack was also of that persuasion (and indeed, was criticised for <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/06/21/nationals-leadership-spill-joyce/">not pushing back enough</a>). </p>
<p>This means he could be characterised as too close to the Liberals and too accommodating. The other approach is more public signalling of the differentiation and more implicit threats of splitting the Coalition. </p>
<h2>Policy tightrope</h2>
<p>The Nationals then, must operate in the zone between tight cooperation and political competition. </p>
<p>The Liberals need them to form government but if skirmishes break into open disagreement and competition, the Liberals may lose majority government and the Nationals would face an existential threat. </p>
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<img alt="Barnaby Joyce talks to a man on a horse during the Upper Hunter byelection in May 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407347/original/file-20210621-35149-kuqi5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=593&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Since quitting the leadership, Joyce has never been far from the spotlight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren Pateman/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Open competition at the state level in Victoria (in the 1930s-50s) and Queensland (in the 1980s) did yield some increased power in the short run for the Nationals. But this was followed by long periods out of government. </p>
<p>As a standalone party in Western Australia, they got a signature program (“<a href="http://www.drd.wa.gov.au/rfr/whatisrfr/Pages/default.aspx">royalties for regions</a>”) in 2008 but no sustained increase in either state or federal representation. Voters in southern NSW and northern and western Victoria have also shown that they will elect rural Liberals, which is one of many threats to Nationals’ parliamentary representation.</p>
<p>In amongst this, rebel Nationals — such as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-22/queensland-nationals-george-christensen-not-recontest-seat/100089174">George Christensen</a> and Matt Canavan — have not necessarily picked issues that are easy for a modern Coalition government to give way to. Arguing for <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6255703923001">more coal fire power stations</a> goes against international political trends and the sciences around climate change.</p>
<p>Under the new leadership of United States President Joe Biden, global cooperation on emissions is likely to step up and pull Australia along with it. Business is moving ahead of government in investment decisions on energy and even the National Farmers Federation want an emissions reduction strategy. </p>
<h2>Marriage of convenience</h2>
<p>Earlier this year, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/no-convenience-for-nationals-voters-in-coalition-marriage/news-story/03d1d874ab856a04e5f3cb57a5fe3137">Joyce characterised</a> the Coalition as a “marriage of convenience”. </p>
<p>This may be so, but a love match is unlikely (otherwise the parties would merge) and a divorce would come at a huge cost. </p>
<p>As Joyce resumes leadership of the Nationals, he now takes on the difficulties of keeping the party relevant, united and electable as we head towards the next federal election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce is back as Nationals leader, three years since his reluctant resignation.Geoff Cockfield, Professor of Government and Economics, and Deputy Dean, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1630762021-06-21T02:31:26Z2021-06-21T02:31:26ZBarnaby Joyce ousts Michael McCormack to regain Nationals leadership<p>Barnaby Joyce has blasted Michael McCormack out to seize back his old job of Nationals leader.</p>
<p>Joyce’s win, which automatically makes him deputy prime minister, has major implications and challenges for Scott Morrison, who had been hoping the more malleable McCormack would survive. </p>
<p>It was a two-horse race but, in line with its practice, the National party did not announce numbers. </p>
<p>Joyce is a hardliner on issues such as climate change and coal. On a very different front, he recently declared the Bileola Tamil family should be allowed return to the town.</p>
<p>He is a formidable retail politician and will seek to strongly differentiate the Nationals from the Liberals in the run up to the election.</p>
<p>He may also want to renegotiate with Morrison the detail of the Coalition agreement. He has to deal with Morrison, who is in isolation after his trip, remotely.</p>
<p>As Joyce takes over the Nationals in parliament, Morrison this week will be handling question time via videolink.</p>
<p>David Littleproud remains as deputy Nationals leader. What changes Joyce will make to the Nationals ministerial line up are yet to be revealed.</p>
<p>But their Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, who was forced out of cabinet at Morrison’s insistence after the sports rorts affair, appears likely to be brought back. Matt Canavan, a former resources minister, said ahead of the vote he was not seeking to return to the frontbench.</p>
<p>At Monday morning’s Nationals party room meeting, the spill was moved by Canavan, a Joyce loyalist, and David Gillespie, a backbencher from NSW.</p>
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<p>There had been constant criticism among Nationals of McCormack’s performance, with many of them feeling he did not stand up to Morrison firmly enough.</p>
<p>Feeling against McCormack has intensified since the budget, when discontented Nationals believed the minor party had not received proper acknowledgement, particularly in the government’s infrastructure announcements.</p>
<p>Some Nationals have become particularly concerned at Morrison’s slow but steady move towards embracing a “net zero 2050” target. Nationals Resources Minister Keith Pitt and McKenzie both came out publicly last week declaring this was not the Nationals policy.</p>
<p>The Nationals were also dismayed by McCormack’s embarrassing performances in parliament when acting prime minister last week.</p>
<p>Joyce became deputy prime minister in February 2016 after Warren Truss resigned. He quit as leader in February 2018, amid a scandal over his extra-marital affair with his now partner Vikki Campion, and a claim of sexual harassment, which he denied.</p>
<p>In 2017 he had to fight a byelection for his seat of New England after he was disqualified by the High Court during the dual citizenship crisis. He had been a dual New Zealand citizen and so ineligible to be a candidate at the 2016 election, the court found.</p>
<p>This was Joyce’s second attempt to overthrow McCormack, after <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-scott-morrisons-relief-michael-mccormack-holds-his-job-as-nationals-leader-131133">a failed challenge in February last year.</a></p>
<p>Asked on radio before the vote whether he was happy with McCormack’s performance as Nationals leader, Morrison said, “Absolutely. I’ve got a wonderful partnership with Michael. We’ve worked very closely together and provided great, stable leadership for Australia”. </p>
<p>McCormack said after the vote: “I’ve represented this nation as deputy prime minister for three years, and I’m proud of the fact I did my best, that’s all you can ever ask”.</p>
<p>Asked whether his colleagues had betrayed him, he said:“It’s called democracy”.</p>
<h2>UPDATE</h2>
<p>In a bizarre arrangement, Michael McCormack sat at the House of Representatives’ central table, in what would normally be Morrison’s chair, at question time. This was because the Governor-General is out of Canberra and so Joyce could not be sworn in immediately. </p>
<p>Asked by Anthony Albanese who was deputy prime minister Morrison, speaking virtually from The Lodge, said “the member for Riverina is currently the deputy prime minister of Australia”. </p>
<p>At a news conference before question time Barnaby Joyce said he would take the issue of net zero 2050 to his party room. </p>
<p>He was asked whether he believed Morrison should be going to the Glasgow climate summit with a net zero by 2050 policy.</p>
<p>Joyce said: “I will be guided by my party room. It’s not Barnaby policy - it’s Nationals policy. And Nationals policy is what I will be an advocate for. </p>
<p>"And if the Nationals Party room believes that the best deal for regional Australia is to make sure that we secure their jobs, is to make sure we secure their industries, is to clearly understand the dynamics of an Australian economy, as opposed to a Danish one or a German one - if that’s the view of the Nationals Party room, that’s the view that I’ll support.”</p>
<p>Asked how he would change the Nationals Joyce said: “I have a different suite of issues. I have a different suite of attributes and I hopefully will be able to apply them in such a way as to give us the best chance [at the election].”</p>
<p>Joyce said he would consult his colleagues about the new Coalition agreement. A new agreement was “part and parcel of when you have a new leader,” he said. </p>
<p>“And I’ll be making sure that I talk to my colleagues in the Nationals about the issues that they see as pertinent, and I will be making sure that that respect is given to the party room.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Barnaby Joyce has blasted Michael McCormack out to seize back his old job of Nationals leader, and now assumes the role of deputy prime minister.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1590602021-04-15T12:09:36Z2021-04-15T12:09:36ZGrattan on Friday: Christine Holgate gets her own bully pulpit – and uses it to effect<p>Queensland Nationals Senator Matt Canavan, juggling a couple of committee engagements, hadn’t planned to attend Tuesday’s hearing at which former Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate appeared.</p>
<p>But party elder Ron Boswell was insistent, telling Canavan he must be there, in the room, fighting for Australia Post’s small business licensees.</p>
<p>Boswell, himself a former senator, retains one of the best political “noses” in the business. He’d spoken to Canavan soon after the Holgate affair blew up last October, warning the issue was trouble and needed to be fixed.</p>
<p>Canavan was initially sceptical, thinking people would react against the Cartier watches she’d given four executives as a reward for a deal with banks to shore up Post’s licensee network.</p>
<p>But he’s come round to Boswell’s thinking.</p>
<p>The government has been somewhat dismissive of the campaign the licensees have waged in support of Holgate. </p>
<p>But Canavan judges the many small post office businesses in regional areas could pack quite a punch in next year’s election campaign if they chose. And in these areas in Queensland the Nationals are competing with One Nation.</p>
<p>At Tuesday’s hearing, Canavan wasn’t backward. It was he who put to Post’s chairman Lucio Di Bartolomeo the pointed question: “Given that, as you say, Miss Holgate has a lot of support amongst your employees and important clients and suppliers, and given that Miss Holgate this morning has called for your resignation, would it not be better for Australia Post if you were to leave now, as well?” It was a reasonable proposition, but the chairman said he wasn’t going anywhere.</p>
<p>What has been notable, as Holgate lashed out at Prime Minister Scott Morrison for “bullying” her with his parliamentary tirade and Di Bartolomeo for not backing her, is the breadth of her constituency of support. It includes business figures and respected financial journalists, as well as the licensees.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-christine-holgate-presents-a-compelling-story-of-morrisons-bullying-158895">View from The Hill: Christine Holgate presents a compelling story of Morrison's bullying</a>
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<p>With her claim gender was a factor in how she was treated, and the suffragette-white attire, she has now astutely tapped into the new women’s movement that’s arisen off the back of the Brittany Higgins issue. In doing this, she’s hit Morrison where he’s particularly vulnerable.</p>
<p>Politically, her advocates stretch from Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson, who was the moving force behind the Senate inquiry.</p>
<p>The bedfellows might be somewhat uncomfortable with each other, but it’s a big bed.</p>
<p>The week left Morrison and the government on the ropes over Holgate’s treatment. References to “luxury watches” have lost much of their shock value.</p>
<p>The government can only hope the issue will simply fade with time, as issues do. Except that those small business operators mightn’t forget.</p>
<p>There’s an interesting contrast in how Morrison is currently dealing with Higgins, who alleges she was raped by a colleague in a minister’s office, and with Holgate.</p>
<p>The PM has reaffirmed he plans to meet Higgins. She’s indicated she’s not keen on re-entering Parliament House, so he’s willing to arrange another venue. He says he’s looking forward to hearing what she has to say.</p>
<p>Holgate, who wants an apology from Morrison, this week asked him to call her.</p>
<p>But he rejected that as unnecessary. Outstanding issues are between her and the Post board, he said. That may be true. By the same token, not to make the gesture is discourteous, at the least.</p>
<p>Remember, this was an executive who performed extremely well at Australia Post and who came out of the inquiry into the watches affair with only minor points against her.</p>
<p>Neither Morrison nor the two Australia Post shareholder ministers (Communications Minister Paul Fletcher and then Finance Minister Mathias Cormann) spoke directly to Holgate on October 22, the day Morrison excoriated her in Parliament.</p>
<p>Again, they would say that was a matter for the chairman, and again, they would be technically right. But given the stakes, wouldn’t one have thought Fletcher, in particular, might have sought to make direct contact?</p>
<p>Holgate’s appearance at the Senate inquiry not only gave a detailed insight into the behind-the-scenes events of that October day, but also revealed some of the arguments that had been going on about the future of Australia Post.</p>
<p>She produced part of a review by consultants BCG the government had commissioned, that canvassed cost-cutting measures and the possible sale of Post’s parcel section. She and the management team had pushed back against cutting services and jobs, and opposed divestiture. </p>
<p>So before the watches affair, the government was already – to a greater or lesser extent – irritated by the forceful head of this government business enterprise that some Liberals would like to see part or even fully privatised.</p>
<p>As speculation grew after her evidence about the BCG report, Fletcher on Wednesday said the government had no plans to sell off the parcels service – which performed strongly over the pandemic.</p>
<p>Anyway, probably any attempt to do so would run into vigorous resistance from the Nationals.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-matt-canavan-on-holgate-di-bartolomeo-and-john-andersen-159043">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Matt Canavan on Holgate, Di Bartolomeo, and John Andersen</a>
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<p>The government hasn’t released the BCG report. Obviously it canvasses important issues about the business and should be in the public domain.</p>
<p>But who is surprised? It is of a piece with this government’s penchant for secrecy, if it can get away with it (not that it’s alone among governments here).</p>
<p>It even tried to hold back the report into Holgate and the watches, until public pressure made that untenable.</p>
<p>Further afield, among the advantages, from the government’s point of view, of the national cabinet is that much more can be kept “in confidence” than in the old Council of Australian Governments days.</p>
<p>Crossbench senator Rex Patrick has a “test case” in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal for the release of minutes from the national cabinet, which has been crucial in the pandemic decision-making process. Patrick says he “wants to expose the government’s secrecy overreach and to open the document vault for others to look in and see”.</p>
<p>Morrison this week talked about how Australia Post must be accountable. But his government likes to minimise the extent of its own accountability, especially when awkward issues surface.</p>
<p>It is worth remembering that if we didn’t have Senate inquiries like the Holgate one we would get even less information.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-bullying-can-happen-to-christine-holgate-at-the-highest-level-then-what-happens-to-other-women-at-work-158956">If bullying can happen to Christine Holgate at the highest level, then what happens to other women at work?</a>
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<p>Question time, at least in the House of Representatives, has become almost useless as a means of holding the government to account. There is a report imminent from a House committee about how to improve it, but you’d have to be an optimist to see a prospect of qualitative change.</p>
<p>But the Senate committee on COVID, the inquiry into the Holgate affair, and regular estimates hearings on a range of issues, have forced some transparency and accountability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Christine Holgate’s evidence before a senate inquiry on Tuesday delivered some wounding blows to Scott MorrisonMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1590432021-04-15T07:10:12Z2021-04-15T07:10:12ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Matt Canavan on Holgate, Di Bartolomeo, and John Andersen<p>Former Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate has given evidence to a Senate inquiry into her dramatic exit from Australia Post.</p>
<p>Holgate left her position last year, when the prime minister denounced her in parliament for giving Cartier watches as rewards to Australia Post executives.</p>
<p>Victim of a hit job, Holgate inflicted damaging hits of her own – delivering blows against Scott Morrison and Australia Post chair Lucio Di Bartolomeo, and following up her evidence with a media blitz. </p>
<p>She accuses Morrison of bullying and says Di Bartolomeo should resign. </p>
<p>Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who sat in on her appearance, also believes Di Bartolomeo should go.</p>
<p>“The CEO of Australia Post, just like any government organisation, is not appointed by the minister or the government. The government appoints a board and then the board, under the chair’s direction, hires a CEO.</p>
<p>"The big main job of the chair is to find a good CEO and give them good direction. And that hasn’t occurred here. </p>
<p>"And I think, therefore, the buck must stop with Lucio.”</p>
<p>Despite this, Canavan doesn’t believe an apology is owed by the prime minister for his “parliamentary reaction”, as it was “understandable and everyone had a similiar reaction”. An apology is required from the government, however, for the “dismount, how we’ve handedled the situation post the initial scandal”.</p>
<p>Canavan belongs to the group within the Nationals known for being pro-coal, stirring the pot, and putting pressure on leader Michael McCormack. On this podcast, he discusses the Nationals’ election prospects, as well as the possible return to parliament of former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister John Anderson, who is seeking preselection for a Sneate run. </p>
<p>“[John Anderson is] making a major contribution to the intellectual richness of our country[…] he’s quite a thought leader. I think having the platform of the Senate would amplify that voice a bit. I think he’d also play a very stabilising and educating sort of role in our party room.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the National party and Christine Holgate's evidence before a senate inquiry with Senator Matt CanavanMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1540782021-01-27T06:59:15Z2021-01-27T06:59:15ZView from The Hill: Coal push from Nationals is a challenge for Scott Morrison<p>Nationals who attend Thursday’s memorial service in Tweed Heads for Doug Anthony, who died last month aged 90, may muse on the contrast between the state of their party when he led it and now.</p>
<p>Anthony took over the then Country party from the legendary John McEwen in 1971; he served as deputy prime minister under John Gorton (briefly), William McMahon, and throughout the Fraser government.</p>
<p>He held the powerful trade portfolio, now out of the Nationals’ hands.</p>
<p>Most importantly, the junior Coalition partner in those days had not just a strong leader effective at juggling his party’s interests with those of the joint team, but an extremely forceful troika – including heavy hitters Ian Sinclair and Peter Nixon – in the upper reaches of government. The party was also united.</p>
<p>Today the Nationals have an embattled leader and a fractured party. They are tolerated rather than respected by the Liberals. For Scott Morrison they are more problem than asset.</p>
<p>As has been on show this week, which has seen sprays from former leader Barnaby Joyce and a renewed push for government support for new coal-fired power.</p>
<p>Joyce, who was forced to quit the leadership in early 2018 in a blaze of bad publicity over his personal life, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/no-convenience-for-nationals-voters-in-coalition-marriage/news-story/03d1d874ab856a04e5f3cb57a5fe3137">wrote in The Australian</a> on Wednesday that “the Coalition has devolved into a marriage of convenience that diminishes the electoral prospects of the whole Coalition”. </p>
<p>Amomg his complaints is that the Liberals “allocate the substantial portfolios and [committee] chairs exclusively to themselves”. </p>
<p>“Would the Nationals’ doyen, John ‘Black Jack’ McEwen, have accepted this? This needs to be corrected prior to an election, which I presume will be at the end of this year.”</p>
<p>Joyce pointed to symbolism as well as substance. “In question time to the right of the dispatch box, where the Prime Minister sits, is no longer the Deputy Prime Minister, leader of the Nationals, but the Treasurer. He moved into the picture recently with the COVID pandemic and it does not look like he is for moving out of the frame.”</p>
<p>Joyce’s reference to McEwen is a less-than-subtle crack at Michael McCormack. Joyce and his supporters are deeply frustrated not just with McCormack’s leadership but also by the fact they haven’t been able to get rid of him, which is not for want of trying.</p>
<p>One of Morrison’s periodic challenges is to prop up the position of his deputy prime minister. For example, in considering a legal issue last year, Morrison overrode the preference of Attorney-General Christian Porter to side with strident Nationals, fearing to do otherwise could undermine McCormack.</p>
<p>Morrison has wanted to avoid the disruption in government ranks that would come with the overthrow of McCormack.</p>
<p>Also, what dissident Nationals see as a negative – McCormack’s pliancy – is for Morrison a positive. Basically, McCormack doesn’t kick up within the Coalition.</p>
<p>He does, however, stuff up from time to time. Like when he was recently acting PM and sparked controversy with his comments about the insurrection in Washington, comparing “the events at the Capitol Hill” “to those race riots that we saw around the country last year.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-offensive-to-say-all-lives-matter-153188">Why is it so offensive to say 'all lives matter'?</a>
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<p>With the usual provisos about the uncertainties of politics, McCormack is expected to lead into the election. The heir is not Joyce, despite his aspirations, but the party’s deputy leader, Agriculture minister David Littleproud – and it’s in Littleproud’s interests to wait.</p>
<p>But it is telling that Nationals sources (not from the dissidents) say McCormack’s position would not be guaranteed post election even if the party held its seats.</p>
<p>At the start of a year when Morrison will be under international and domestic pressure over climate policy, the Nationals’ backbench manufacturing committee is hyping up the coal debate. The committee is chaired by former resources minister Matt Canavan, close ally of Joyce and an outspoken rebel.</p>
<p>The committee’s policy paper says: “Australia needs to build modern coal fired power stations to help manufacturing industries. That is why the Nationals Party backs the delivery of a coal fired power station at Collinsville in North Queensland.</p>
<p>"But more will need to be built. Given that the NSW Government has recently announced plans to shut 8520 megawatts of coal fired power (representing 70 per cent of the electricity of NSW), the Government should also support a new coal fired power station in the Hunter Valley.</p>
<p>"This would use the world’s best and cleanest thermal coal. It would be better for the environment for more Australian coal to be used to manufacture goods in Australia, instead of Australians importing manufactured goods from countries that use lower quality coals.”</p>
<p>While the federal government has a feasibility study underway for a possible coal-fired plant at Collinsville, it does not expect there will be a viable case made out for the project.</p>
<p>As for the Hunter region, Morrison’s energy pitch is all about gas, not coal.</p>
<p>The battle on the conservative side of politics over climate and energy issues is nothing like as feral as in Malcolm Turnbull’s time. But Morrison still has to watch potential dissenters – and at present the most unmanageable voices seem to be in the Nationals rather than in the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The funeral of former national party leader, Doug Anthony, may prompt introspection for many members of the fragmented national party.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1377202020-05-01T11:56:28Z2020-05-01T11:56:28ZView from The Hill: Yes, we’re too dependent on China, but changing that is easier said than done<p>After the COVID crisis, what will be the “new normal” in Australia’s relations with China?</p>
<p>The short answer is, probably both worse and more complicated than pre-COVID.</p>
<p>This week has seen a fresh low point, with the Chinese government threatening economic retribution in response to the Morrison government’s call for an independent international inquiry into the origin and handling of the virus.</p>
<p>More generally, the pandemic has put front and centre two questions. The first is long-standing: has Australia become too dependent on China? The second has taken on a new urgency: can the dependency be reduced?</p>
<p>Appropriately, in the health crisis this dependency has been highlighted by the issue of medical supplies, much of which we import from China, including the vital but simple product of masks.</p>
<p>At a Wednesday news conference, Health Minister Greg Hunt celebrated mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest’s securing for the federal government of 10 million COVID-19 tests from China (for which the government will pay).</p>
<p>Forrest stressed his close relationship with, and gratitude to, the Chinese company that provided the $320 million worth of testing gear. Unbeknown to Hunt until the function, “Twiggy” had repaid the favour by inviting along the Chinese consul-general to Victoria, Long Zhou, who was accorded a platform to defend his country’s handling of the pandemic (which was “open and transparent”, he said).</p>
<p>Hunt had been ambushed; the government was furious.</p>
<p>Forrest is one of many in the business community who don’t want the China boat rocked.</p>
<p>Media magnate Kerry Stokes was quoted this week saying, “If we’re going to go into the biggest debt we’ve had in our life and then simultaneously poke our biggest provider of income in the eye it’s not necessarily the smartest thing you can do.”</p>
<p>Former resources minister Matt Canavan, usually on-song with business, declared that “too many of our business elite are concerningly vague about whether we should have an independent foreign policy”.</p>
<p>A separate strand of criticism of the government has come from those who argue its call for an inquiry lacked diplomatic acuity. They say it was made without lining up international partners to reinforce it, and came too hard on the heels of President Trump’s announcement he’d stop funds to the World Health Organisation.</p>
<p>Be that as it may, the inquiry proposal is logical enough, given the enormity of the pandemic’s consequences, and sub-optimal performances by both China and the WHO.</p>
<p>No doubt the government expected China to react, but the bite-back was ferocious, with the Chinese threat of retribution delivered by ambassador Cheng Jingye followed by the leaking of a conversation between him and Frances Adamson, secretary of the foreign affairs department.</p>
<p>Sources say Morrison feels personally affronted by China’s bullying. Also, they say, he has toughened his attitude towards China in the past year.</p>
<p>As well as showing its defensiveness over COVID-19, the Chinese reaction is just the latest manifestation of its approach in foreign relations.</p>
<p>It is a familiar playbook. In his recently-published memoir Malcolm Turnbull, referring to China’s “bullying tactics”, writes, “If a foreign nation disappointed China – for instance by criticising its conduct in some manner – then it could expect both criticism and economic consequences”.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has simply brought to the surface, in dramatic fashion, the deep and long-term bind Australia is in. As China has become more powerful, and in recent years its regime increasingly assertive and diplomatically aggressive, the problems of Australia’s dependency are more obvious.</p>
<p>The pandemic has sparked calls for diversification of both our export markets and import sources, and greater self-sufficiency.</p>
<p>Liberal backbencher Andrew Hastie, chair of the parliamentary intelligence and security committee, urges a review of “all industries and sectors that are vulnerable to supply chain disruption and that are also essential to our strategic resilience as a country”.</p>
<p>Canavan said the pandemic had clarified that “we must reduce our dependence on one country”. He wants to see Australia working with other countries to “diversify the world’s production of materials critical to the international economy. This is already happening with the processing of rare earths”.</p>
<p>Canavan says Australia, as the world’s largest producer of iron ore and the largest exporter of coking coal, has “a strategic interest in developing alternative customers for those products”.</p>
<p>But diversification is achievable only to a degree. Australia’s high level of economic reliance on China will inevitably continue for the foreseeable future. Most immediately, for instance, Australia’s recovery from the looming recession will need the help of the Chinese economy.</p>
<p>China’s purchases of iron ore and coal are bedrocks of our exports. Wider markets for them would depend on demand in other countries.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the pandemic will lead to some rethinking and changes.</p>
<p>For example, the over-reliance of many Australian universities on Chinese students has been recognised for some time. It is now obvious this should be rectified.</p>
<p>It may be COVID will do that anyway, with the border closure producing a longer-term reset.</p>
<p>On the import side, Australia needs to address the issue of certain medical supplies. This is a matter of national security, broadly defined.</p>
<p>Beyond such products however, Australian consumers are best served by markets operating: the last thing we want is a return to protectionism.</p>
<p>Foreign investment is an interesting area.</p>
<p>To protect Australian companies made vulnerable during the crisis, all proposals (not just those above certain thresholds) currently must go to the Foreign Investment Review Board.</p>
<p>This is temporary but post crisis, there is likely to be public pressure to have a tougher approach to certain Chinese investment bids.</p>
<p>For some time, however – probably since the controversy around a Chinese company acquiring the lease of the Darwin port - Chinese investment proposals affecting key areas, such as energy and infrastructure, have been scrutinised more critically.</p>
<p>Crucially (although not a FIRB matter) Huawei was excluded from the 5G network.</p>
<p>At the same time as COVID is highlighting some harsh realities of the China relationship, it is also providing a reminder that the nature of the regional situation Australia will face in the next few years is something of a lottery.</p>
<p>Trump’s behaviour during the pandemic has been worse than erratic. Can anyone doubt if he is re-elected, his conduct would likely become even more unpredictable? The consequences for the US’s engagement in the region – or disengagement from it – are deeply worrying for Australian foreign policy.</p>
<p>If Joe Biden wins in November, there’d be considerable relief around Canberra’s foreign policy establishment. Morrison, wooed by Trump as a “bestie”, would have to do something of a pivot, but we know he’s the ultimate pragmatist.</p>
<p>Biden would mean US policy in the region would be more predictable and thus better for Australia.</p>
<p>But it would not make Australia’s long-term relationship with China any more straightforward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137720/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The call to examine Australia’s dependance on China has also brought to light, in a dramatic fashion, the full extent of China’s diplomatic behaviourMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336862020-03-24T18:57:12Z2020-03-24T18:57:12ZOur social identity shapes how we feel about the Adani mine – and it makes the energy wars worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322480/original/file-20200324-155695-sd8gg2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C16%2C5459%2C3684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia has the technology to move from fossil fuels to renewable energy, but the social dynamics remain challenging. The Stop Adani protest convoy during the 2019 federal election campaign brought this difficulty to the fore.</p>
<p>A real sticking point for navigating any social change, including the energy transition, is finding a way through entrenched attitudes in which people see themselves as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015300182">“us” in conflict with “them”</a>. In these situations, people tend to focus on trying to defeat their opponents rather than finding mutually beneficial solutions to the problem.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620300694">research</a> just released, I examined media coverage of the Stop Adani protest convoy to better understand these social identity divides. In particular, I analysed the factors shaping who was an “us” and who was a “them” in the conflict.</p>
<p>I found that the media, with the help of politicians, crafted a narrative of division between inner-city “greenies” and Queensland mining communities. These divisions foster a social dynamic that ultimately inhibits co-operation and good policy outcomes.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Debate over Australia’s coal industry is fraught and involves entrenched attitudes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Identity matters</h2>
<p>The Stop Adani convoy took place in April and May 2019. It involved hundreds of protesters travelling by road (in a convoy of vehicles) from Tasmania, through eastern Australian cities to Clermont, the regional Queensland town nearest the site of <a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-everything-you-need-to-know-about-adani-from-cost-environmental-impact-and-jobs-to-its-possible-future-116901">Adani’s proposed Carmichael coal mine</a>.</p>
<p>The identity dimension of this protest is important. Australia’s energy transition is inextricably tied to the often fraught politics of climate and energy more broadly, and our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0157-2">social divisions fall along left-right political lines</a>. This means our views on issues such as climate change and energy policy are wrapped up in, and can often be explained by, the groups with which we identify.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how-124336">Coal mines can be closed without destroying livelihoods – here's how</a>
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<p>So, the energy transition is taking place in an already polarised and challenging space plagued time and time again by the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2399654418772843">same conflict dynamics</a>. </p>
<p>This conflict often gets in the way of identifying and implementing effective policy solutions. It’s a particular problem for the energy transition, which needs people and sectors working together to support the technical changes. And if society is divided, it is far <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421516302300">less likely</a> to achieve a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-fair-energy-transition-look-like-107366">just transition</a>” that limits negative social impacts and promotes social equity.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Division over the energy transition is hindering a ‘just transition’ for coal workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<h2>The role of the media</h2>
<p>The media is a space in which diverse groups of people make sense of something happening outside their day-to-day life. That’s why it’s important to examine how the media depicts contentious issues. I studied representation of the convoy in Australia’s six most popular online news websites. </p>
<p>Media representation of the Stop Adani convoy depicted it as a social conflict between two opposing, hostile sides. One side was characterised as activists, Greens (or “greenies”), conservationists and elites; the other characterised as blue-collar workers, regional Queenslanders and proud mining communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-is-cleared-to-start-digging-its-coal-mine-six-key-questions-answered-118760">Adani is cleared to start digging its coal mine – six key questions answered</a>
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<p>These identity-based distinctions were cultivated by political figures who provided media commentary on the convoy. The most prominent were those in favour of the Adani mine, such as Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/busybody-politics-is-threatening-democracy-resources-minister-warns-20190806-p52edg.html">criticised the convoy participants</a> as “self-appointed, self-important bureaucrats” who took a “busybody approach”. </p>
<p>Former Greens leader Bob Brown, who led the convoy, said he “respected those who genuinely believed the Adani mine should go ahead” and identified the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/we-come-in-peace-bob-brown-says-as-thousands-march-in-anti-adani-caravan-20190422-p51g7i.html">coal mining industry and governments as the targets</a> of the protest.</p>
<p>My media analysis revealed that to convoy participants, Adani’s proposed mine symbolised the need for climate action and curtailment of Australia’s coal industry. A counter-movement grew stronger in response, comprising community members and supported by <a href="https://www.resourceindustrynetwork.org.au/Portals/13/2019%20Stakeholder%20Report%20Final_LOW%20Res.pdf">the coal industry</a>. To this group, the Adani mine symbolised regional survival and self-determination. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Convoy leader Bob Brown said the coal industry and governments were the target of the protest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<p>Once a debate becomes a “groupish” conflict like this, predictable dynamics in social interactions emerge. This includes hostility and suspicion towards the other side, and <a href="https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/184">stereotyping which can lead to de-humanisation</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics emerged during the Stop Adani convoy. There were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-27/adani-carmichael-mine-greens-clermont-convoy-qld/11051390">reports of protesters refused entry to local shops and feeling intimidated by the behaviour of townspeople</a>, including having <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/adani-protester-injured-in-clermont/11052940">stones thrown at their cars</a>. Conversely, an anti-Adani protester reportedly likened <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/we-come-in-peace-bob-brown-says-as-thousands-march-in-anti-adani-caravan-20190422-p51g7i.html">Adani supporters to Nazis</a> in a Facebook post. (Bob Brown <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/bob-brown-accuses-news-corp-of-disgraceful-coverage-of-stop-adani-convoy">distanced the convoy</a> from the comments, which he said had “no place in civil debate”).</p>
<p>Media reports of these incidents served to fuel a narrative of two opposing groups clashing over a fundamental and unsolvable differences.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A woman helps a Stop Adani protester allegedly injured during a confrontation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Newton/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Finding unity</h2>
<p>There has been much debate about the extent to which the convoy affected the election result in crucial regional Queensland electorates. My study did not address this question.</p>
<p>At its core, my analysis showed that for the “us” that emerged via the convoy, there had to be a “them”. In other words, we form groups based not just on who we are like, but also who we are not like. </p>
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<p>But achieving a successful and fair energy transition requires creating a unified “we”, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare-113369">not leaving any person or community behind</a>. This means looking after regional communities and people who will feel the first-hand impacts of decarbonising our energy supply.</p>
<p>We must better understand the identity dimension of the energy conflict if we’re design and implement creative and effective solutions. This means more listening, more sharing, and finding common ground.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133686/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Colvin has received funding from the Australian Government for work unrelated to the present study.</span></em></p>New research shows how deeply entrenched “us” and “them” attitudes make it much harder to make a fair energy transition.Rebecca Colvin, Lecturer, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1317802020-02-13T11:02:53Z2020-02-13T11:02:53ZGrattan on Friday: Morrison can only look on as Nationals ‘wicked problem’ damages his government<p>The Nationals’ crisis is a political version of what social scientists call a “wicked problem”. It’s without any obvious solution, and every future course is fraught.</p>
<p>This is a “wicked problem” not just for the minor coalition partner, but for Scott Morrison also. He’s an alarmed and essentially powerless observer of a struggle destabilising the Coalition.</p>
<p>This week’s events – the resignation of Llew O’Brien from the Nationals, the hugely embarrassing defection of several of their MPs in a House of Representatives vote which made O'Brien deputy speaker, and the continued public positioning by Barnaby Joyce and his campaign manager Matt Canavan – indicate the trouble will continue.</p>
<p>On any reckoning, the duo of Joyce and Canavan, a former deputy prime minister and an articulate former cabinet minister, can land some hefty punches from the backbench.</p>
<p>Three possibilities lie ahead: Michael McCormack remaining leader of a split, dysfunctional party; Joyce having a second, and successful, tilt; David Littleproud emerging as a compromise.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-michael-mccormack-moves-on-from-his-near-death-experience-131305">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Michael McCormack moves on from his near-death experience</a>
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<p>McCormack is paddling desperately but his position looks increasingly unsafe.</p>
<p>His post-ballot reshuffle - a blatant jobs-in-return-for-votes exercise - has given the Joyce camp new grounds for stirring.</p>
<p>Joyce couldn’t have expected a post, and there were arguments both ways about whether Canavan’s disloyalty should have been rewarded by restoring him to cabinet. Beyond them, McCormack had either no room or no inclination for conciliatory gestures, as well as missing the opportunity to promote some new talent.</p>
<p>McCormack feels the party pressure to be more visible, but questions will inevitably be about the divisions. Asked in a Wednesday Nine interview whether he could survive, he sounded defensive rather than convincing. “Absolutely. I’m strong, I’m determined. And I’m going to stay.”</p>
<p>A move to Joyce would be the rashest course. If the party were confident it would get back the “old Barnaby”, the Barnaby of the early days of his leadership, it would switch in a flash.</p>
<p>But the doubters worry about the current Barnaby and fear how wild a ride they’d be in for.</p>
<p>They all know, however, that he won’t stop agitating. This week Canavan and Joyce launched the first of a promised “<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1yYRlcEqTEWQ99df1TiYru">Weatherboard and Iron</a>” series of podcasts. Their matey chat canvassed Joyce’s challenge, O'Brien’s resignation, the Nationals’ supporters, and of course coal.</p>
<p>Canavan squashed speculation - following O'Brien’s remaining in the Queensland Liberal National Party - about the prospect of LNP members meeting as a separate party room in Canberra. Canavan is a member of the LNP but he’s about promoting the Nationals’ brand. Both Joyce and Canavan tried to talk O'Brien out of quitting the Nationals (as they would, given his leaving takes out a Joyce vote).</p>
<p>In the podcast, Joyce encapsulated the broad pitch he’s making to the party when he said: “We’ve got to be bold enough and bolshie enough to get the outcomes that [Nationals’ constituents ] need and put yourself in a position where you can get the outcomes they need.”</p>
<p>The middle course for the Nationals – a move to Littleproud – could be the most rational. It would hold risks, given his inexperience. But he’s performed competently as a senior minister; he also comes from Queensland, and it is the Queenslanders who are the most unsettled among the Nationals.</p>
<p>The problem with the Littleproud scenario is there is no clear path there.</p>
<p>To have maximum authority in the party, Littleproud would need to be a consensus candidate. McCormack would ideally have to be “tapped” by someone close to him – such as Darren Chester – and agree to step down for the greater good. Joyce and his supporters would have to go along with the change. Such compliance is against the grain of each of them.</p>
<p>Littleproud is not inclined to challenge, which would be the worst way for him to get the leadership.</p>
<p>Unless and until the Nationals (100 years old this year, incidentally) get sorted, their in-fighting will poison the Morrison government. But Morrison is impotent in the crisis.</p>
<p>He has no formal role in the Nationals’ affairs, and he does not appear to carry informal influence with them, especially since his own standing has been reduced post bushfires. Indeed, with one issue being the Nationals’ feeling McCormack is too subservient to Morrison, any sign of Liberal interference would worsen things.</p>
<p>There was resentment among Nationals at Morrison being seen to push Bridget McKenzie under the bus over the sports grants, not least because they felt his office had more involvement than it admitted. </p>
<p>Those government MPs with a bent to black humour might note the Nationals’ war overshadowed the still-reverberating aftermath of the sports affair, at least until late Thursday.</p>
<p>Thanks to a last-minute change of heart by Pauline Hanson, the government defeated an attempt to clip Senate leader Mathias Cormann’s wings. The context was the Senate’s trying to force the release of the report Morrison commissioned on McKenzie from his departmental head Phil Gaetjens.</p>
<p>But even that small victory came with a tart taste.</p>
<p>Crossbencher Jacqui Lambie, angry at the government flouting accountability, said she’d suspend negotiations on the legislation to crack down on union bad behavior. “If they can’t show integrity up here, and do the right thing, why would I be voting for an ensuring integrity bill?” she said. It was a reasonable question.</p>
<p>On Thursday afternoon the sports rorts affair was refueled with the Audit Office’s appearance before a Senate inquiry. The inquiry heard that, contrary to Morrison’s repeated claim that no ineligible projects were funded, some 43% were ineligible. (They had been judged eligible by Sport Australia but subsequently became ineligible because of timing factors and amended applications.) The committee was also told spreadsheets went to and fro between the Prime Minister’s office and the McKenzie office, with the PMO making direct representations for projects, though not necessarily successfully.</p>
<p>Amid the government’s misery, Labor suffered an own goal when Ten revealed the existence of a new sub-faction, which calls itself the “Otis group” (after a Canberra restaurant), formed within the caucus. It comprises up to 20 conservative members of the right faction, and is convened by resources spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon, who has been a vocal advocate of Labor taking a more sympathetic attitude towards coal.</p>
<p>Its members are worried Labor is failing to pay enough attention to its working class base. Apart from coal, among their concerns is the issue of religious freedom.</p>
<p>The group’s defenders say it is a way of giving the party’s conservatives a voice and keeping them happy. For the future, it is also a potential source of leverage for Fitzgibbon and like-minded caucus members when decision time comes on climate change and other issues.</p>
<p>The Otis group has only had one dinner – on the Sunday before parliament resumed. Anthony Albanese didn’t know of the group until he was warned the story of its existence was about to break on Wednesday. His anger doesn’t require description.</p>
<p>The publicity around the Otis group gave the government some grist for Thursday’s question time. But the Coalition still left Canberra that night, after the first parliamentary fortnight of 2020, in a bad place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nationals face the “wicked problem” of how to subvert the uncertain fortnight behind them, with the possibility of further leadership spills constantly looming.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1314892020-02-10T10:37:16Z2020-02-10T10:37:16ZView from The Hill: It turned into a profitable day at the office for Nat rat<p>The Nationals’ internal turmoil has created further chaos in the Coalition, with rebel backbencher Llew O'Brien defying the government to win a House of Representatives vote for deputy speaker – a day after quitting his party.</p>
<p>In a highly astute tactical play, Labor nominated O'Brien, who defeated the government candidate, Nationals’ whip Damian Drum, 75-67.</p>
<p>Labor had 64 votes, with the other 11 votes in the secret ballot coming from a combination of crossbenchers – of whom there are six - and dissident Nationals. If all the crossbenchers voted for O'Brien, that meant he got five Nationals votes.</p>
<p>In the chamber, Scott Morrison and Nationals leader Michael McCormack were forced to swallow their fury at the government’s public humiliation and congratulate O'Brien.</p>
<p>“With two government members to choose from I’m pleased to see government members received the full confidence of all the members of the House”, Morrison said. McCormack said: “That’s democracy”.</p>
<p>McCormack, who held his position last week in face of Barnaby Joyce’s challenge, has been further weakened by the latest shenanigans.</p>
<p>With the minor party deeply split and its rebels out of control, and hard line Nationals and moderate Liberals exchanging shots over coal, the government is distracted and risks being destabilised.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-michael-mccormacks-battle-to-hold-off-a-second-shot-from-joyces-locker-131164">View from The Hill: Michael McCormack's battle to hold off a second shot from Joyce's locker</a>
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<p>O'Brien’s extraordinary 24 hours began with his indicating he was resigning from the Nationals, during a Sunday row with McCormack.</p>
<p>But he remains a member of the Queensland Liberal National Party. Under this arrangement he won’t attend the Nationals party room but will go to the Coalition party meetings.</p>
<p>A former policeman who holds the Queensland seat of Wide Bay, O'Brien said he did not know Labor would nominate him for the post of deputy speaker, which became vacant with the appointment of Kevin Hogan to the frontbench. (Hogan, incidentally, moved to the crossbench during the last parliament, while remaining in the National party. He moved back to the government benches after the election.)</p>
<p>O'Brien’s elevation brings him a pay rise of some $42,000, additional travel entitlement and an extra staffer.</p>
<p>After winning the ballot, O'Brien said he would be meeting the PM on Monday night and “firming up” his arrangements to stay within the government.</p>
<p>Asked whether he’d be crossing the floor on legislation, he said: “I consider legislation, all legislation when it comes before me. The people of Wide Bay have sent me here to do the right thing by them.</p>
<p>"I’ve got a strong track record when it comes to standing up - I was the person that told the Prime Minister in the last term that I would support a royal commission into the banks,” he told Sky.</p>
<p>In a sign of how dysfunctional McCormack’s party room has become, Ken O'Dowd – who is deputy whip and thus supposedly has a role in enforcing discipline – told the ABC he voted for O'Brien. </p>
<p>O'Dowd explained this by saying that like him, O'Brien was a Queenslander, and Queenslanders were under-represented on McCormack’s frontbench. “Fortune favours the brave. … Good on the underdog.”</p>
<p>O'Dowd ran unsuccessfully against Drum at Monday’s Nationals meeting to be the government’s nominee for the deputy speakership.</p>
<p>He said Joyce had been planning to nominate him for the position when the parliamentary vote came but he had told Joyce not to do so, in the name of unity. He also indicated he would like to see Joyce leader “one day, if the chips are right”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the “coal wars” flared, fuelled by the government’s weekend confirmation of the feasibility study for a coal-fired power station in Queensland and the allocation of $4 million for it.</p>
<p>Liberals Dave Sharma and Trent Zimmerman said the government should not fund a coal-fired power station.</p>
<p>Queensland National and former resources minister Matt Canavan, who resigned from cabinet last week to support Joyce’s tilt at the leadership, tweeted, “I see some are saying that we should not help coal fired power stations provide jobs because we should leave it to the market. Well if that’s the view be consistent and argue against the billions we give to renewables every year!”</p>
<p>George Christensen, another National from Queensland, said in a blog, “Despite claims by one inner-city Liberal MP on Sky News this morning, the Morrison Liberal National Government is providing funding to coal-fired power projects, principally because they provide stable and reliable baseload supply.</p>
<p>"When the Collinsville clean coal-fired power project is ready to be constructed, it will be eligible for consideration under the Morrison Liberal National government’s Underwriting New Generation Investments program, which supports targeted investment that will lower prices, increase competition and increase reliability in the energy system.”</p>
<p>Just to add to the toxic day, Malcolm Turnbull – in Canberra for the Widodo speech to parliament - had a few succinct thoughts to contribute.</p>
<p>“The fundamental economic reality is this … there is no economic basis on which to build a coal-fired power station in Australia any longer. … Those people who are advocating that the government should fund coal-fired power are basically making a case for higher emissions and higher energy prices and that is nuts.”</p>
<p>He might have added that what’s going on inside the Nationals is pretty much nuts too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The internal chaos of the Nationals has continued into the second week of parliament. With the minor party of the Coalition deeply split, the future of the government is uncertain.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311332020-02-04T00:01:50Z2020-02-04T00:01:50ZTo Scott Morrison’s relief, Michael McCormack holds his job as Nationals’ leader<p>Nationals leader Michael McCormack has seen off a challenge from Barnaby Joyce but now faces the formidable task of trying to bring together a fractured party that lost two cabinet ministers this week.</p>
<p>The result will be a deep relief to Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He stood to be a big loser if forced to partner with Joyce, who promised a more assertive approach and would have pressed for concessions when re-negotiating a Coalition agreement.</p>
<p>The Nationals do not release the results of their ballots, which inevitably leads to speculation – and mischief-making – about the numbers. Some media sources claimed the numbers were lineball but McKenzie backers declared that rubbish. Only the whip, Damian Drum, and a scrutineer, Perin Davey, had access to the ballot papers.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-challenges-mccormack-with-pitch-to-make-nationals-more-assertive-131047">View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce challenges McCormack with pitch to make Nationals more assertive</a>
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<p>The party elected Water Resources Minister David Littleproud as deputy. He replaced Bridget McKenzie who was forced to resign at the weekend after the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>McCormack’s reshuffle will now have to be substantial because Matt Canavan, who has been resources minister, quit cabinet to campaign for Joyce. A tight-lipped McCormack made it clear he would not be reinstating Canavan.</p>
<p>McCormack told a news conference he did not expect another challenge from Joyce.</p>
<p>“I’ve been endorsed as leader. I was endorsed as leader when we came back here after the May election last year, I was endorsed as leader when he stood down in 2018. That’s three times in less than two years. I think that is enough to warrant me leading the party going forward.”</p>
<p>But Joyce is unlikely to give up his ambition, and having a restive Canavan on the backbench will be unhelpful for McCormack. McCormack must also battle the public perception that he is a bland and weak leader.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the Nationals have not in the past been inclined to change leaders between elections, which will provide some protection for McCormack.</p>
<p>Frontbencher Darren Chester, who stands to be returned to cabinet, apologised to the community for the Nationals’ self-indulgence, which came on the day parliament has dedicated to the bushfire victims and heroes.</p>
<p>“I’m disappointed, I’m somewhat embarrassed that we’re going through this today. I want to offer an apology to the Australian people.” </p>
<p>Chester said regional Australians were suffering the consequences of drought and bushfires. “On a day when the parliament … is due, to debate a condolence motion, to have us talking about ourselves is embarrassing.” </p>
<p>Littleproud said: “The shenanigans are over, it’s time to get back to looking after those people that are facing drought, that have faced up to the fires. It’s time for us to focus on them, not us. The party has to focus on that”. </p>
<p>Joyce said in a statement: “It is appropriate that if an issue needs resolving as to contentions held, there is a procedure to resolve it as is noted in our parliamentary system. That process has been followed and the issue is finalised. This was made as brief as possible prior to the first sitting of parliament for the year.</p>
<p>"I support the vote of the room and will strive for the re-election of a Morrison McCormack government as this is definitely the better outcome for Australia and especially of regional people.</p>
<p>"Now my first attentions go back to where they were before this week, the New England, drought, fires and now the threat of coronavirus.”</p>
<p>McKenzie has received the minor consolation of being re-endorsed by the party room as the Nationals’ Senate leader. Canavan remains her deputy.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-minister-david-littleproud-on-bushfires-drought-and-the-nationals-127016">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Minister David Littleproud on bushfires, drought, and the Nationals</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The result will be a deep relief to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who stood to be a big loser if forced to partner with Joyce.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1310472020-02-03T11:56:34Z2020-02-03T11:56:34ZView from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce challenges McCormack with pitch to make Nationals more assertive<p>The Nationals have exploded into a major crisis with Resources Minister Matt Canavan offering his resignation from the ministry on Monday to throw his support behind Barnaby Joyce’s bid to oust Michael McCormack from the leadership.</p>
<p>In a Monday night news conference Canavan told reporters the Nationals needed “a bulldog”, “a fighter”.</p>
<p>Earlier Joyce informed McCormack he would challenge, with a spill to be moved when the party meets on Tuesday morning.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ meltdown has been triggered by the forced resignation of Bridget McKenzie from the cabinet and Nationals deputy leadership, after the secretary of the Prime Minister’s department, Phil Gaetjens, found she had breached ministerial standards by not declaring her membership of gun clubs in the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>While only a new deputy needed to be elected, Joyce has seized the opportunity to make his leadership run. On Monday night the numbers were unclear in the McCormack-Joyce battle.</p>
<p>The leadership fight is driven by Joyce’s unrelenting desire to return to the job he had to forfeit in early 2018 amid a scandal around his personal life.</p>
<p>But it is fuelled by widespread criticism of McCormack, both inside and outside the Nationals, for a perceived lack of cut-through. This is despite the fact the Nationals held their ground at the 2019 election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-the-story-of-an-unlikely-rise-and-a-self-inflicted-fall-92361">Barnaby Joyce: the story of an unlikely rise and a self-inflicted fall</a>
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<p>Canavan made it clear a switch to Joyce would mean a more forthright stand on policy by the Nationals - by extension within the Coalition. This would make the relationship much more difficult for Scott Morrison. McCormack’s critics within the party accuse him of being too subservient to Morrison.</p>
<p>Most immediately, a change of leader would mean a new Coalition agreement, with the Nationals demanding extra concessions.</p>
<p>Joyce recently attracted attention with his <a href="https://twitter.com/Barnaby_Joyce/status/1209372444726743046">“Merry Christmas” video</a>, showing him feeding cattle, in which he gave his take on the climate issue. </p>
<p>“Now you don’t have to convince me that the climate’s not changing, it is changing - my problem’s always been whether you believe a new tax is going to change it back. I just don’t want the government any more in my life; I’m sick of the government being in my life. </p>
<p>"And the other thing is, I think, we’ve got to acknowledge … there’s a higher authority beyond our comprehension … right up there in the sky. Unless we understand that it’s got to be respected, then we’re just fools, and we’re going to get nailed.”</p>
<p>One issue for the Nationals is how a return to Joyce would be received by women in regional areas, among some of whom his reputation was tarnished by allegations of sexual harassment. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/03/rural-women-warn-nationals-not-to-restore-barnaby-joyce-to-leadership">The Guardian on Monday reported</a> a number of rural women opposing his reinstatement.</p>
<p>Joyce on Monday said the National party had to be on the “balls of its toes as we face some of the most challenging times.</p>
<p>"We have to speak with our own voice and we have to drive agendas because it is going to be an incredibly tough game for people in regional areas,” he said.</p>
<p>“We’ve got to make sure that we are not a shadow of another party.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/richard-di-natale-quits-greens-leadership-as-barnaby-joyce-seeks-a-tilt-at-michael-mccormack-131029">Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack</a>
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<p>While praising McCormack’s “tireless” campaigning efforts, Canavan said the broader environment the Nationals faced in regional Australian had changed.</p>
<p>“We struggle to get our voice heard … we just have to fight a bit harder,” he said.</p>
<p>“I do think that on a number of fronts we must be more forceful on issues that are threatening the livelihoods of those in regional Australia.”</p>
<p>“We need a bulldog, we need a fighter to fight back against those who want to take away people’s coal jobs, who want to shut down cane farms,” said Canavan, who is a passionate advocate for the coal industry. </p>
<p>“We’ve got so much to do with the Nationals party,” he said. “And I do think a change in direction here will allow us to do that better
for our constituents.”</p>
<p>Joyce was “an effective fighter” and “that’s why I’m backing him”.</p>
<p>In another complication over ministerial standards, Canavan revealed he had just recalled his link to the North Queensland Cowboys, which last year was awarded a $20 million loan by the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, that sits under his ministry. </p>
<p>He did not believe this was a conflict of interest, saying he did not approve NAIF loans. But a press release from him last year said “Canavan approves $20 million for NQ Cowboys”. Canavan admitted he should have declared the link and he has referred the matter to the Prime Minister’s office. </p>
<p>Queensland National Llew O'Brien flagged he would move for a spill when the 21-member Nationals party room meets. </p>
<p>David Littleproud, the Water Resources Minister, is the frontrunner for the deputy vacancy. He is not contesting the leadership. Frontbencher Darren Chester, a McCormack supporter, said he would not run for deputy.</p>
<p>Late Monday Canavan had not formally resigned from the cabinet: while offering his resignation to McCormack he has to tender it formally to Morrison, which he said he would do Tuesday morning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nationals’ meltdown has been triggered by the forced resignation of Bridget McKenzie, and while only a new deputy needed to be elected, Joyce has seized the opportunity to make his leadership run.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1237542019-09-19T04:29:24Z2019-09-19T04:29:24ZStop calling young people apathetic. For many, volunteering and activism go hand-in-hand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293102/original/file-20190919-187945-k5jfpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians routinely criticise young climate strikers as not making a difference. But the reality is quite different.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ellen Smith/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Senator Jacqui Lambie has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jacqui-lambie-calls-for-emergency-services-conscripts-to-combat-climate-change-20190914-p52rbe.html">proposed establishing a Senate inquiry</a> to increase the number of volunteers to address challenges such as climate emergencies. </p>
<p>One way she suggests doing this is by conscripting young Australians to national emergency service. The Senator argues that </p>
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<p>today’s generation don’t really want to volunteer themselves and commit to certain things. They want to show up to a rally once a year and apparently that’s giving back … It bothers me that kids today wouldn’t know a bloody sandbag, let alone a spade. </p>
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<p>Her proposal comes on the back of criticism of youth climate protesters by several prominent politicians, such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/climate-change-protest-will-lead-to-dole-queue-minister-tells-students-20181130-p50jbt.html">Resources Minister Matt Canavan</a>, who has said</p>
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<p>the best thing you’ll learn about going to a protest is how to join the dole queue.</p>
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<h2>Young people are already volunteering</h2>
<p>Collectively, these statements reflect a view of young people that is wildly inaccurate.</p>
<p>Firstly, Lambie echoes a familiar but negative view of young people as disengaged, indifferent and immature. </p>
<p>Volunteering rates are indeed declining. In 2014, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4159.0">volunteering declined</a> for the first time since 1995, when the ABS started conducting national voluntary work surveys. The proportion of people aged 18 years and over who were volunteering fell from a peak of 36% in 2010 to 31% in 2014. (This is the most recent data available).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-an-average-day-only-1-of-australian-news-stories-quoted-a-young-person-no-wonder-so-few-trust-the-media-122464">On an average day, only 1% of Australian news stories quoted a young person. No wonder so few trust the media</a>
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<p>Historically, <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED511043.pdf">younger people are less</a> likely to engage in civic activities than older Australians. But wider research during the last decade suggests something more nuanced. </p>
<p>A national youth survey in 2018 found volunteering to be <a href="https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/publications/youth-survey/823-mission-australia-youth-survey-report-2018/file">one of the top three activities</a> for young people – ahead of arts, culture and music activities. ABS figures from 2014 also showed that while overall rates of volunteering were on the decline, young people aged 15-17 had the highest rate in the nation at 42%.</p>
<p>The measures used to track volunteering also fail to capture the breadth and depth of volunteering that takes place among young people.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/b23e1cea513878b7ca258255000dd750!OpenDocument">ABS has defined volunteering</a> as </p>
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<p>the provision of unpaid help willingly undertaken in the form of time, service or skills, to an organisation or group, excluding work done overseas.</p>
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<p>For young people, many types of volunteering take place invisibly through online activities like constructing news groups on Facebook that contribute to a wider cause. Such online activities may not be for a particular organisation or group and may be conducted internationally. </p>
<p>In addition, the boundaries between personal and civic contributions <a href="https://www.unisa.edu.au/siteassets/episerver-6-files/documents/eass/hri/sprg/volunteering-report.pdf">are sometimes blurred</a>. For example, volunteering in some culturally and linguistically diverse communities is just part of life, and not considered to be volunteering. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/youth_volunteering_evidence_review_0.pdf">research has shown</a> that some young people don’t necessarily think of activities such as umpiring a local sporting event as volunteering, because for them it is just an interesting pursuit. </p>
<p>As a result, these contributions by young people sometimes go unrecognised.</p>
<p>Acknowledging that its definition does not account for informal volunteering like this and other activities <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4159.0.55.004">such as activism</a>, the ABS is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/b23e1cea513878b7ca258255000dd750!OpenDocument">now seeking to capture</a></p>
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<p>a broader range of volunteering activity and characteristics.</p>
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<h2>Protesting is an equally valid way of giving back</h2>
<p>Young people are also increasingly motivated to take part in another form of civic participation: peaceful protest. For many, protesting for important causes is considered an equally valid way to give back to society.</p>
<p>The most prominent example of this are the student climate strikes around the world that have been galvanised by youth activist <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/climate-activist-greta-thunberg-meets-with-barack-obama">Greta Thunberg</a>. <a href="https://www.broadsheet.com.au/national/city-file/article/school-climate-strikes-take-place-nationwide-friday">Thousands of Australians students</a> are expected to walk out of their classes again on Friday.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-dont-more-people-volunteer-misconceptions-dont-help-69284">Why don't more people volunteer? Misconceptions don't help</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/01/youth-climate-strikers-we-are-going-to-change-the-fate-of-humanity">Jonas Kampus</a>, a 17-year-old protester from Switzerland, described the importance of these efforts to the Guardian: </p>
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<p>For people under 18 in most countries, the only democratic right we have is to demonstrate. We don’t have representation.</p>
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<p>Canavan has a different view, saying that young people <a href="https://www.2gb.com/minister-says-protesting-students-are-learning-how-to-join-the-dole-queue/">“don’t learn anything”</a> from leaving school to protest.</p>
<p>But experiential learning through activism can be powerful and connect people to finding common solutions. Education isn’t just about securing future jobs, as Canavan has suggested. It’s also about developing inquisitive, creative and critical thinkers who fully participate in society. </p>
<p>Young people throughout the world are demonstrating these attributes and participating in ways that do not register in conventional measures. Many are actively engaging the challenges facing our society and are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-30/australian-students-climate-change-protest-scott-morrison/10571168">acutely aware of the value of education</a>.</p>
<p>There is another important connection between protesting and volunteerism. <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9781137263162">One international study</a> has found that </p>
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<p>people involved in voluntary associations are up to five times more likely to make political demands than those without such membership.</p>
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<p>University of the South Pacific researcher Jacob Mwathi Mati and his colleagues <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-137-26317-9_25">argue that activist movements</a> can serve as “schools of democracy that teach civic skills and foster civic attitudes.” Taking part in climate change protests, for example, can build capacity for citizen engagement in the same way as more traditional forms of volunteering. </p>
<p>The great majority of politicians are hardworking and dedicated to making a difference in society, and painting them with broad-brush criticisms that reinforce negative stereotypes does not do them justice. </p>
<p>It’s equally unfair to reduce young people to passive and clueless individuals in need of compulsory volunteer conscription.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Walsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conscripting young volunteers to combat climate change is not necessary. Australians aged 15-17 already have the highest rates of volunteering in the country.Lucas Walsh, Professor, Education Policy and Practice, Youth Studies in the Faculty of Education. Latest books with Rosalyn Black include "Imagining Youth Futures: University Students in Post-Truth Times" and "Rethinking Youth Citizenship after the Age of Entitlement", Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916322018-02-11T11:03:01Z2018-02-11T11:03:01ZLabor moves in on the Barnaby Joyce affair<p>The Labor Party, which started with a hands-off approach to the Barnaby Joyce affair, has now segued into making it a political issue, while trying to still argue that its “personal” aspect should be private.</p>
<p>The opposition is eyeing possible openings to exploit in the liaison between Joyce and his former staffer Vikki Campion – who is expecting his child – by pursuing questions about processes and taxpayers’ money, as well as harbouring the hope of dragging Malcolm Turnbull into the matter.</p>
<p>Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek walked the fine line on Sunday.</p>
<p>“I don’t think [Joyce] needs to account for his personal behaviour, his relationships, to the public,” <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/tanya-plibersek-joins-insiders/9420216">she told the ABC</a>.</p>
<p>“The only area in which there is a genuine public interest is in the area of the expenditure of taxpayers’ funds, and there have been questions over the last couple of days about jobs that have been created for Vikki Campion, the expenditure of taxpayer funds on travel.</p>
<p>"I think those are areas where the prime minister and the deputy prime minister ought to be fully transparent,” she said.</p>
<p>Turnbull last week tried to keep away from the Joyce matter by saying it was private. </p>
<p>“These private matters are always very distressing for those involved, I don’t want to add to the public discussion about it. I’m very conscious of the distress this causes to others, in particular Natalie Joyce and her and Barnaby’s daughters. So it’s a private matter, a tough matter. I don’t have any more to say about it,” he said on Friday.</p>
<p>Pressed later, he said he was “not aware of any inappropriate expenditure of public funds”. But the issue of “public funds” is becoming murkier.</p>
<p>When the Joyce-Campion affair was creating problems in Joyce’s office, she was moved to the office of Resources Minister Matt Canavan. Later a place was found for her with Nationals then whip Damian Drum.</p>
<p>Questions are now being asked about the pay and arrangements in relation to these positions. On Friday, Turnbull was being quizzed about whether he’d counselled Joyce to remove Campion.</p>
<p>One can only imagine the Turnbull anger about the situation. He comes at it from a personal position of being very family-oriented and his sympathy is clearly with Natalie Joyce and the daughters. Also, with the government starting the year looking better, the last thing Turnbull wants is to have this becoming another distraction, let alone have any suggestion of a role in it.</p>
<p>Joyce by Saturday had publicly taken sole ownership, with a statement “that he had not discussed Ms Campion’s employment with the prime minister or his office.</p>
<p>"He confirmed that the Nationals were responsible for decisions relating to staffing in the offices of Nationals’ members. The Prime Minister’s Office has an administrative role in informing the Department of Finance.” Labor no doubt will be probing this “administrative role”.</p>
<p>Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, appearing on Sky on Sunday, was clearly uncomfortable. He maintained that “all of my advice is that everything was absolutely above board”, while also saying: “I am not aware of the specific staffing circumstances of every single one of my colleagues”.</p>
<p>The next few days will reveal whether there is anything to see, in terms of untoward arrangements or costs. Nationals sources point to the obvious implications for Joyce if there were any such revelation.</p>
<p>The big question – assuming there is no public money time bomb – is what this will do to Joyce’s leadership. There are mixed opinions.</p>
<p>He can point to the fact that in terms of retail politics, he has been highly popular, and led the party to a very good result at the election, in contrast to Turnbull’s below-par performance.</p>
<p>His position is protected (even more than Turnbull’s, in the Liberal Party, is protected) by the absence of an alternative leader. But the Nationals are at present an unhappy bunch.</p>
<p>There’s criticism of Joyce’s recent performance, including his handling of the Nationals’ part of the pre-Christmas reshuffle, which saw Victorian MP Darren Chester dumped from cabinet and assistant minister Keith Pitt ending up on the backbench.</p>
<p>There’s ruminating about how his new circumstances will play out in the wider Nationals’ constituency, which tends to be conservative and family-oriented. Will people have long memories or will they just move on when the fuss dies down?</p>
<p>Perhaps most relevant is whether Joyce will lose his political energy as he deals with new personal circumstances and some loss of respect.</p>
<p>With a bitter separation behind him, it won’t be easy.</p>
<p>Tony Windsor, Joyce’s old enemy in the seat of New England, is turning the knife, predicting in a tweet: “The Eagles are circling, don’t be surprised if Joyce resigns "for personal reasons” before the main story claims him … he will know it’s getting close to a one-way street to a job with Gina".</p>
<p>With unfortunate if exquisite timing, Turnbull held a family fun day for Coalition MPs at the Lodge on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, there was no sign of his deputy prime minister.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/6jqa7-8776fa?from=site&skin=1&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=0" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor is eyeing possible openings to exploit in the liaison between Barnaby Joyce and his former staffer Vikki Campion.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/884052017-11-30T09:21:19Z2017-11-30T09:21:19ZPolitics podcast: Matt Canavan on divorce in the LNP and discipline in the Coalition<p>The Liberal National Party’s loss in the Queensland election has sparked demerger talk, while at a federal level it has emboldened the Nationals to take a more independent line.</p>
<p>Nationals cabinet minister Matt Canavan, who is a Queenslander, doesn’t agree that breaking up the LNP would solve any problems politically: “You can’t unscramble the egg”.</p>
<p>Despite being an opponent of a royal commission into the banks, Canavan says the government’s change of tune to support it demonstrates the strong ability of National backbenchers to push their agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88405/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan owns bank shares.</span></em></p>Nationals cabinet minister Matt Canavan doesn't agree that breaking up the Queensland LNP would solve any problems politically.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/870932017-11-10T03:31:26Z2017-11-10T03:31:26ZWhy has BHP distanced itself from legal threat to environment groups?<p>Australian environment groups this week found an unexpected supporter in BHP, the world’s largest mining company. </p>
<p>BHP has defended green groups’ right to receive tax-deductable donations, in the face of a concerted push from both the federal government and the Minerals Council of Australia. </p>
<p>Given the influential role of the environment movement in Australia, and the legal <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-12-06/charities_can_be_political/41852">precedent</a> that NGOs and charities can be political, the big Australian evidently sees value in defending them. </p>
<h2>Environment groups’ tax status</h2>
<p>Environmental organisations in Australia have traditionally been able to claim tax-deductible status under both the Income Tax Act and the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2013A00100">Charities Act</a>, in recognition of the fact that the work these groups do has a clear public benefit. But this status has now come under threat. </p>
<p>The federal government issued a report in 2016 entitled <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/tax-deductible-gift-recipient-reform-opportunities/">Tax Deductible Gift Recipient Reform Opportunities</a>, examining the administration and transparency of the environment groups. The ostensible aim of this report was to ensure that tax-deductible donations to environmental organisations were being used properly. </p>
<p>Among its key recommendations was that environmental organisations would be required to seek tax-deductible status directly from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), and that they be registered as environmental charities in order to qualify. The report also recommended removing the list of environmental groups set out under the Income Tax Act.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-inquiry-takes-aim-at-green-charities-that-get-political-40166">Government inquiry takes aim at green charities that 'get political'</a>
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<p>Controversially, the report also recommended that the ATO require environmental charities to spend at least 25% of their donation income on “environmental remediation work”, as opposed to campaigning or other activities. The government has subsequently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/15/governments-letter-to-conservation-groups-has-ominous-implications">indicated</a> that it is considering increasing this percentage to 50%. </p>
<p>But the <a href="http://www.minerals.org.au">Minerals Council of Australia</a> argues that environmental charities should be forced to commit 90% of their resources to on-the-ground environmental remediation, education and research, leaving only 10% for political advocacy.</p>
<h2>Support within the LNP</h2>
<p>Federal resources minister Matt Canavan has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-10/environment-groups-could-lose-tax-concession-status/6384554">indicated</a> his support for removing tax-deductible status from environmental organisations. In 2015 he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-10/environment-groups-could-lose-tax-concession-status/6384554">stated</a>: </p>
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<p>…there are a large minority [of environmental groups] who are clearly engaged primarily in trying to stop fossil fuel development in Australia and I don’t think it’s right that Australian taxpayers, including people who work in the mining industry, be asked to fund those activities.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Minerals Council of Australia has also backed the removal of tax-deductible status from environmental organisations, <a href="https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2017/07/charity-defends-dgr-status-champion-environment-democracy/">claiming</a> that many of these groups are “not environmental organisations but rather professional activist groups whose objective is to disrupt and hamper the resources sector”. </p>
<p>The Minerals Council issued its own <a href="http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/media_releases/MCA_submission_on_Tax_Deductible_Gift_Recipient_Reform_Opportunities_discussion_paper_4_Aug_2017.pdf">report</a> documenting environmental organisations that is claims have committed or encouraged unlawful or unsafe activities or sought tax-deductible donations to support politically partisan activities.</p>
<p>The report specifically refers to activities by organisations including <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/">Greenpeace</a>, the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au">Australian Conservation Foundation</a>, the <a href="https://www.nature.org.au">Nature Conservation Foundation of NSW</a>, the <a href="http://www.aycc.org.au">Australian Youth Climate Coalition</a>, and <a href="https://www.marineconservation.org.au">Australian Marine Conservation</a>, arguing that their activities are against federal law.</p>
<p>It is also important to note that environmental organisations are not the only groups to receive tax-deductible status. Other groups, such as the <a href="http://ipa.org.au">Institute for Public Affairs</a>, which often campaigns on behalf of large organisations to remove environmental protections, also has this status. </p>
<h2>Environment groups can be political</h2>
<p>Legally speaking, there is no doubt that environmental charities and other NGOs do engage in political activities in addition to their focus on public welfare and the environment. This does not prevent them from being treated as charities. </p>
<p>Indeed, in the landmark <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-12-06/charities_can_be_political/41852">High Court decision of Aid/Watch</a> in 2011, the court specifically stated that where it is clear that public welfare is a primary motivation, the fact that the organisation also has political purposes is irrelevant. </p>
<p>On this basis, an environmental organisation can engage in activities to promote political change while still maintaining as its principal purpose the conservation or improvement of the natural environment. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-politically-active-environmental-groups-42748">Australia needs politically active environmental groups</a>
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<p>Even BHP agrees. In response to the Minerals Council report, BHP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/08/bhp-opposes-minerals-council-of-australias-war-on-activist-rights">announced</a> that it holds a different view. It argued that environmental organisations should not be stripped of their tax-deductible status, because these organisations perform important advocacy roles for policy development in a democratic society. </p>
<p>Subsequently, 100 BHP shareholders have put forward a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/08/bhp-opposes-minerals-council-of-australias-war-on-activist-rights">shareholder resolution</a> through the <a href="http://www.accr.org.au">Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility</a> calling on the company to leave the Minerals Council of Australia. They argued that the Minerals Council’s position is directly at odds with “our company’s long-term financial and strategic interests”.</p>
<p>BHP has agreed to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/19/bhp-agrees-to-rethink-its-links-to-minerals-council-of-australia">review</a> its membership of the Minerals Council of Australia. It is not alone. In 2016, one of Australia’s largest emitters of greenhouse gas, <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/residential">AGL</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/19/bhp-agrees-to-rethink-its-links-to-minerals-council-of-australia">left</a> the Minerals Council, citing material differences in their respective policies on climate change and energy. </p>
<h2>Environment groups should be allowed to do their work</h2>
<p>At a time when we are facing a rapidly transitioning energy landscape – with the acceleration of climate change, renewable energy production, new technologies for unconventional gas extraction, and increasing concerns regarding groundwater depletion and contamination - environmental protection is a major public concern. </p>
<p>It’s hardly surprising that in a democratic framework, environmental organisations have become more politically active. They are striving to ensure that the research and education they conduct with respect to the environment is appropriately reflected within the Australian legal framework. </p>
<p>This work ultimately benefits all Australians. These organistions are constantly seeking to improve and protect the natural habitat in which we all live. In a democracy like ours, the work of these groups should not be drained of funding through changes to the taxation system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>BHP has distanced itself from moves to strip environment groups of their tax deductibility status. Why does the Big Australian see value in defending them?Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/853242017-10-27T07:24:54Z2017-10-27T07:24:54ZThe High Court sticks to the letter of the law on the ‘citizenship seven’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192169/original/file-20171027-13355-8drbd7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The High Court has ruled Scott Ludlam, Larissa Waters, Fiona Nash, Barnaby Joyce and Malcolm Roberts ineligible to have stood for parliament at the 2016 election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Shutterstock/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today, the High Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-knocks-barnaby-joyce-out-in-dual-citizenship-case-as-byelection-looms-in-new-england-86470">announced</a> the fate of the “citizenship seven”, with only senators Nick Xenophon and Matt Canavan surviving the legal ordeal. (Although the victory will be of limited relevance to Xenophon, who has in the meantime <a href="https://theconversation.com/nick-xenophon-set-to-go-back-to-where-he-came-from-85338">announced</a> his resignation from the Senate to return to state politics in South Australia).</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA//2017/45.html">the case</a>, the High Court, acting as the Court of Disputed Returns, found that four of the six senators referred to it, and the only member of the House of Representatives (Barnaby Joyce), were disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution. With the exception of Xenophon and Canavan, it was found that the MPs had never been validly elected.</p>
<p>The court has declared all five seats vacant. The senators will be replaced through a recount from the 2016 election. The House of Representative seat of New England will go to a byelection on December 2, which Joyce will contest. </p>
<p>In the meantime, Labor has refused to offer the Coalition a pair for Joyce’s absence, and the Coalition will maintain government on a knife-edge, with 74 seats plus the support of the crossbench, and, if necessary, the Speaker’s casting vote.</p>
<p>Leaving to one side the immediate political consequences of the decision, what did the High Court say about the interpretation of the restriction on foreign citizens running for parliament in Section 44? And is this the last time we will have to think about the matter?</p>
<h2>The possible interpretations of Section 44</h2>
<p>The crux of the constitutional case was the interpretation of Section 44 of the Constitution – specifically sub-section (i). That, relevantly, provides:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Any person who … is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or a citizen of a foreign power shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a senator or a member of the House of Representatives.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Importantly, if a person is found to be in breach of Section 44 at the time they nominated for election, they will never have been validly elected.</p>
<p>The High Court has held that if a person has never been validly elected, their parliamentary votes during the time they purported to sit would still be valid. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-high-court-decides-against-ministers-with-dual-citizenship-could-their-decisions-in-office-be-challenged-82688">questions have been raised</a> as to the validity of the decisions of ministers who were not validly elected. This means there are possibly further unresolved issues around the validity of decisions made by Joyce and Fiona Nash, who, unlike Canavan, did not step down from their ministerial posts while the High Court made its determination.</p>
<p>Another important point that the court has previously clarified is that foreign citizenship is determined according to the law of the foreign state concerned.</p>
<p>None of the interpretations that were urged by the parties on the High Court were strictly literal readings of the words “citizen of a foreign power”. All the parties accepted that there had to be some level of flexibility, allowing a person who was technically a foreign citizen to nonetheless be able to run for parliament.</p>
<p>The real argument in the case, then, was how much flexibility could be read into the section.</p>
<p>The reason all the parties accepted that there had to be some flexibility in the words, was that the High Court had held as much in a 1992 decision of <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1992/60.html">Sykes v Cleary</a>. Relevantly, this case did not concern people who were unaware of their foreign citizenship, and so did not directly address the main point that was in issue for the citizenship seven.</p>
<p>Rather, the case stood for the proposition that a person may be a dual citizen and not disqualified under Section 44 if that person has taken “reasonable steps to renounce” their foreign nationality.</p>
<p>In the course of his dissenting judgment, however, Justice Deane made a comment that the provision should really only apply to cases “where the relevant status, rights or privileges have been sought, accepted, asserted or acquiesced in by the person concerned”. In this way, Deane suggested there was a mental element to being in breach of the provision.</p>
<p>Many of the interpretations urged on the court drew on this idea. They ranged from requiring voluntary retention or acquisition of citizenship or requiring actual knowledge of foreign citizenship, to a test of whether a person was on sufficient “notice” to check their citizenship status, to a need for the person to have real allegiance to the foreign power.</p>
<h2>The High Court opts for certainty</h2>
<p>The High Court opted for an interpretation of the Constitution that promotes certainty for future cases.</p>
<p>In a (rare) unanimous decision, it adopted a reading that, as far as possible, adhered to the ordinary and natural meaning of the words. It accepted that the literal meaning would be adopted, with the only exceptions those that had been established in Sykes v Cleary.</p>
<p>The court refused to read further exceptions into the provision based on knowledge, notice or actual allegiance. It said to do so would import a worrying element of uncertainty into the provision, which would be “apt to undermine stable representative government”.</p>
<h2>The application to the ‘citizenship seven’</h2>
<p>Once the High Court resolved the interpretation of Section 44, it had to apply this interpretation to each of the citizenship seven. The only two MPs who they found <em>not</em> to have fallen foul of this strict reading were Xenophon and Canavan.</p>
<p>Xenophon had what was referred to as “British overseas citizenship”. This had been inherited through his father, who migrated from Cyprus while it was still a British territory. The court accepted that Xenophon, while technically a type of British “citizen”, held no right of entry or right of abode, and thus he did not have “citizenship” for the purposes of Section 44.</p>
<p>Canavan’s facts were more complicated. His alleged citizenship turned on a change in Italian citizenship law that occurred because of a decision of the Italian Constitutional Court when he was two. The court received expert evidence on the Italian legal position, and it ultimately accepted that they could not be satisfied that Canavan was, in fact, a citizen of Italy.</p>
<p>Each of the other senators and Joyce accepted that there were, technically, citizens of a foreign country at the time of their nomination. But they argued they had not known of this when they nominated for parliament. The court’s strict interpretation of Section 44 offered them no comfort.</p>
<h2>Is this the end of the parliament’s Section 44 dramas?</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the High Court’s decision, the government has <a href="http://www.pm.gov.au/media/2017-10-27/media-statement">announced</a> it will refer the decision to the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters">Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters</a> to discuss, among other things, possible amendments to Section 44.</p>
<p>The issue, it would seem, is no longer the uncertainty around whether a person is or is not disqualified. Because of the strictness of the High Court’s interpretation, all potential parliamentarians are on notice to check thoroughly their citizenship status. Part of the referral to the committee is to investigate ways to “minimise the risk of candidates being in breach of Section 44”.</p>
<p>Rather, the more fundamental issue is now whether this is a desirable state of affairs given the large numbers of Australian citizens who are dual nationals, and who may not wish to renounce their citizenship to run for parliament. Thus, we as a nation stand to lose potential parliamentarians by excluding a pool of people that is likely to grow, not diminish.</p>
<p>Further, there is another question as to whether Section 44, when interpreted in this way, is apt to achieve its purpose. The High Court accepted that the purpose of Section 44 was to ensure that MPs do not have a split allegiance or loyalty. </p>
<p>Many might argue that this purpose is still an important one. Even if that is accepted, it would seem that denial of eligibility to a dual national is a particularly blunt instrument to achieve it. On the one hand, it captures many people who do not even know they are dual citizens. On the other hand, the relatively easy step (in most cases) of renouncement means that those people who do have a split allegiance, but who want to run for parliament, have only to fulfil these formalities to do so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabrielle Appleby receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a constitutional consultant to the Clerk of the Commonwealth House of Representatives. </span></em></p>The question will now be whether Section 44 of the Constitution needs reform to enable dual citizens who may have a lot to offer to become MPs.Gabrielle Appleby, Associate Professor, UNSW Law School, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/812632017-08-14T04:50:52Z2017-08-14T04:50:52ZFactCheck Q&A: is coal still cheaper than renewables as an energy source?<p><strong>The Conversation fact-checks claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vfSXw4uCi2I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, July 17, 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
<p>Q&A AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. Renewable energy is more carbon-efficient, and now cheaper, than coal and other fossil fuels …</p>
<p>MATT CANAVAN: Thanks, James. Look, I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.</p>
<p><strong>– Excerpt from a question posed by Q&A audience member James Newbold to the then resources minister, Senator Matt Canavan, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfSXw4uCi2I&feature=youtu.be">on Q&A</a>, July 17, 2017</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>One of the biggest debates under way in Australia (and around the world) is about electricity and how it should be generated. One of the major pressure points is prices.</p>
<p>During <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfSXw4uCi2I&feature=youtu.be">an episode</a> of Q&A, audience member James Newbold said renewable energy is “now cheaper than coal and other fossil fuels”. Senator Matt Canavan (<a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-matt-canavan-quits-as-resources-minister-in-latest-citizenship-blow-81570">then resources minister</a>) disagreed, saying: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"886931860382666752"}"></div></p>
<p>Let’s look at the numbers. </p>
<h2>Checking the sources</h2>
<p>The Conversation contacted Matt Canavan’s spokesperson for sources to support his statement but did not hear back before deadline. Nonetheless, we can test his statement against publicly available data.</p>
<h2>What do the data show?</h2>
<p>Based on the electricity generated now by old coal-fired power stations with sunk costs (meaning money that has already been spent and cannot be recovered), Canavan was right to say: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.”</p>
<p>In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing coal station is <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Transmission-Network-Development-Plan/NTNDP-database">less than $40/MWh</a>, while wind power is $60-70/MWh (explained below). So why do <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Renewable_Infrastructure_Investment_Handbook.pdf">people</a> <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/4127a8c364c1f9fa8ab096b04cd93f78.pdf">say</a> renewables are now cheaper than coal?</p>
<p>Well, they’re often talking about what would be the cheaper option if old coal-fired power stations were replaced today – in other words, the <em>new-build</em> price.</p>
<p>Making the distinction between the cost of <em>existing</em> energy generation and the cost of <em>new-build</em> energy generation in this debate is very important. Comparing the two is like comparing apples and oranges. </p>
<p>Current prices are based on existing installations, while <em>new-build</em> prices compare the costs of different technologies if their operating lives started today. This matters because Australia’s existing coal-fired power stations are ageing and will need to be replaced.</p>
<p>Comparing new-build prices is more complicated than comparing current costs, as I’ll discuss later in this FactCheck.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-will-be-cheaper-than-coal-in-the-future-here-are-the-numbers-84433">Renewables will be cheaper than coal in the future. Here are the numbers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we measure the cost of electrical power?</h2>
<p>Let’s cover the basic terminology first. </p>
<p>Electrical energy is measured in <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/kilowatt">kilowatt</a>-hours (kWh) – the units generally used for metering and charging residential electricity use. One kilowatt-hour represents the amount of energy a device that draws one kilowatt of power (like a household heater, for example) would use in one hour. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/megawatt-hour">megawatt-hour</a> (MWh) is 1,000 times larger, and it’s what we typically use to measure large electricity loads or generators. So when we’re comparing the cost of electrical energy generated by different sources, we’ll be talking about Australian dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh).</p>
<h2>Comparing prices for different sources of electricity</h2>
<p>We need to take a few things into account when calculating the cost of electricity created by different technologies.</p>
<p>First, we need to factor in how much it costs to establish the source in the first place – whether that’s a coal-fired power station, a wind farm or a hydro-power plant. Then we need to factor in how much it costs to operate, fuel and maintain that facility over its lifetime. </p>
<p>These factors and the cost of capital (like the interest rate) are commonly combined into a metric called the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source">levelised cost of electricity</a>” (or the LCOE). This provides a measure of the total cost in current dollars per unit of electrical energy generated ($/MWh) over the lifetime of the facility.</p>
<p>We also need to know the time frame in question. A coal-fired power station that’s nearing the end of its operating life may have recovered its original capital investment. So the marginal cost of coal-fired electricity may be low, compared to the levelised cost of a new wind farm that’s yet to recoup its initial capital cost.</p>
<p>Using the levelised costs of electricity created by different technologies does not always provide a perfect comparison. Comparing such different technologies will never be comparing apples with apples. But it’s the best measure we’ve got for a simple “plug and play” replacement of a single generating source. </p>
<h2>Current prices for coal-fired and wind power</h2>
<p>Today, most of Australia’s electricity is <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Australias-Energy-Market/Electricity/Generation">sourced from coal-fired power stations</a>. In their discussion on Q&A, Newbold and Canavan referred broadly to “renewables”. Currently, wind power is <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">the cheapest form of renewable energy</a>. So we’ll use that as the basis for comparison with coal-fired energy. </p>
<p>In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing black coal-fired station is <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Transmission-Network-Development-Plan/NTNDP-database">less than $40/MWh</a>. Brown coal-fired power is even cheaper.</p>
<p>To establish the current price of wind power, we can look at the announcement by <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about.html">Origin Energy</a> in May 2017. The company agreed to buy all the power to be generated by the <a href="http://www.stockyardhillwindfarm.com.au/">Stockyard Hill Wind Farm</a> in Victoria between 2019 and 2030 for <a href="https://www.originenergy.com.au/about/investors-media/media-centre/origin-adds-530mw-of-renewable-energy-to-its-portfolio.html">less than $60/MWh</a>. </p>
<p>A similar price was struck in March 2016 when the Australian Capital Territory government conducted its second “wind auction”. The government uses wind auctions to buy contracts for future energy supplies. The lowest price in the 2016 auction yielded around $60/MWh in current prices. This figure is based on a flat rate of <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/828225/Renewables-and-Wind-Auction-Factsheet-ACCESS.pdf">$77/MWh</a> for 20 years and assumes around 3% inflation, which is the upper end of Australia’s <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/inflation-target.html">inflation rate target</a> of 2-3%.</p>
<p>Combining the total price range for that auction with this inflation range gives around $60-$70/MWh in current prices, with wind farms currently operating in that adjusted range.</p>
<p>So, based on the marginal cost of energy generated by existing coal-fired power stations with sunk costs, Canavan is correct in saying that renewables are not “at the moment, cheaper than coal”. </p>
<p>However, the story is different if we are talking about <em>new-build</em> electricity prices. And this is often where conversations and debates become confused.</p>
<h2>Why new-build electricity prices matter</h2>
<p>Coal-fired power stations in Australia have operating lives of around 50 years. As can be seen from the table below, nine of Australia’s 12 biggest operating coal-fired power stations are <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations/Final_Report">more than 30 years old</a>. </p>
<p>In preparation for the retirement of those older coal-fired stations, policymakers, energy companies and other investors are debating whether to replace them with new coal-fired power stations, or other types of energy generation. This is where the comparison of <em>new-build</em> costs comes into play. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ayv8w/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="593"></iframe>
<h2>New-build prices for coal-fired and wind power</h2>
<p>FactChecks rely on data from events that have already occurred. So we can’t say with factual certainty whether or not renewables would be cheaper than coal as a new-build energy source, because no coal-fired power stations have been built recently. </p>
<p>But we do have recent prices for the cheapest form of <em>new-build</em> renewable energy, which is newly installed wind power.</p>
<p>And we do have recent levelised price <em>projections</em> for the cheapest <em>new-build</em> fossil fuel energy, which is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_steam_generator">supercritical</a> coal power.</p>
<p>The <em>projected</em> price for new <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercritical_steam_generator">supercritical</a> coal power comes in at around $75/MWh from the recent <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">Finkel review of the National Electricity Market</a>, based on data produced by <a href="http://www.jacobsconsultancy.com/">Jacobs Consultancy</a>. That is consistent with the price of $80/MWh from the 2016 report by the <a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">CO2 Cooperative Research Centre</a>, and less than the $84-94/MWh from the 2012/3 <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Pages/Australian-energy-technology-assessments.aspx">Australian Energy Technology Assessment</a> .</p>
<p>These projections for new supercritical coal power are higher than the recent prices for newly installed wind power (outlined earlier in the FactCheck) at <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/796599/ACT-Wind-Auction-II-Review-Summary-report-v4.pdf">around $60-70/MWh</a> in current prices over the 20-year contract period (which is similar to a levelised cost).</p>
<p>So, if we look at recent wind power prices and recent price <em>projections</em> for new supercritical coal power, it’s reasonable to say that – <em>as things stand today</em> – wind power would be the cheaper <em>new-build</em> source of electricity.</p>
<h2>Future prices</h2>
<p>There are important additional factors that need to be taken into account when considering the costs of new-build coal-fired electricity and new-build renewable electricity as we look further into the future. Three of the main considerations are:</p>
<ul>
<li>upgrades to the energy grid (including energy storage) to <a href="https://theconversation.com/relying-on-renewables-need-not-mean-dealing-with-blackouts-28635">balance</a> the use of intermittent renewables, especially once renewable energy exceeds around 50% of all energy supply (this would <a href="http://energy.anu.edu.au/files/renewable%20electricity%20in%20Australia.pdf">increase</a> the price of renewables) </li>
<li>the introduction of a <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/tools-evaluation/effective-carbon-prices-9789264196964-en.htm">price on carbon emissions</a> (this would <a href="http://carbonpricemodelling.treasury.gov.au/content/report/04overview.asp">increase</a> the price of coal)</li>
<li>improvements in technology (this is expected to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/publications/electricity-market-final-report">reduce</a> the price of renewables more so than coal).<br></li>
</ul>
<p>It is possible to make educated assumptions about how these factors would affect prices in the future. But I won’t include those projections in this FactCheck, for two reasons: </p>
<ul>
<li>firstly, we are yet to see the outcomes</li>
<li>secondly, the Q&A audience member and Canavan were discussing prices as they are “now” and “at the moment”.</li>
</ul>
<p>So that’s what I’ve addressed in this FactCheck.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Based on the electricity generated now by old coal-fired power stations with sunk costs, Matt Canavan was right to say: “I don’t accept that renewables are, at the moment, cheaper than coal.” In 2017, the marginal cost of generating power from an existing coal station is less than $40/MWh, while wind power is $60-70/MWh.</p>
<p>The Q&A audience member may have been talking about <em>new-build</em> prices.</p>
<p>Based on recent prices for newly installed wind power of around $60-70/MWh, and recent price <em>projections</em> for new supercritical coal power at around $75/MWh, it is reasonable to say that – <em>as things stand today</em> – wind power would be cheaper than coal as a <em>new-build</em> source of electricity. <strong>– Ken Baldwin</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The author has provided a sound FactCheck that covers a lot of the complexities of a challenging issue. I would add one remark, which doesn’t detract from the author’s verdict.</p>
<p>The cost of new-build coal is likely to be higher than reported in the FactCheck. </p>
<p>The author was correct to point out that the introduction of a price on carbon emissions would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-coal-plants-wouldnt-be-clean-and-would-cost-billions-in-taxpayer-subsidies-72362">increase</a> the cost of new-build coal-fired electricity.</p>
<p>The mere <em>possibility</em> of the introduction of a price on carbon or carbon regulation in the future actually affects the costs of new-build coal-fired electricity today. The risk of increased costs or regulation for emission-intensive generators manifests itself as a higher “risk premium” applied to current financing costs. The overall effect is a higher weighted average cost of capital (basically, a higher average interest rate) for emission-intensive generation.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf">Finkel review</a>, the weighted average cost of capital for coal is projected to be 14.9%, compared to 7.1% for renewables. Risk-adjusted financing costs would result in the levelised cost of new coal being higher than the figures presented in the FactCheck. <strong>– Dylan McConnell</strong></p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>The cost of electricity produced from a new wind farm is competitive with the best estimates for the cost of electricity produced from a new coal station, and cheaper than the cost of new coal quoted in very reputable analyses (<a href="http://www.co2crc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LCOE_Report_final_web.pdf">CO2CRC 2015</a> and <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">CSIRO 2017</a>).</p>
<p>As noted by the author, the comparison in this FactCheck does not include the cost of intermittency for renewables. Recognising that no technology runs 100% of the time, there is a backup cost to be added to wind to make it as firm (or stable) as a fuel-based plant. Available costs for such backup, such as large-scale battery or pumped storage, are based on estimates and are the subject of much current study.</p>
<p>New wind with backup could very well be very competitive with new coal, particularly if the cost of emissions is recognised. However, at present, the contention either way is unproven. <strong>– Tony Wood</strong></p>
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<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ken Baldwin receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in a number of energy and resources companies.</span></em></p>On Q&A, an audience member said renewable energy is ‘now cheaper than coal’. Senator Matt Canavan disagreed, saying renewables are not ‘at the moment, cheaper than coal’. Let’s look at the numbers.Ken Baldwin, Director, Energy Change Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817582017-07-28T03:40:42Z2017-07-28T03:40:42ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Matt Canavan and dual citizenship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180150/original/file-20170728-23754-1gubkor.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
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<p>The University of Canberra’s Michelle Grattan and Frances Shannon discuss the week in politics, including Matt Canavan’s dual citizenship issue, what would his loss mean to the Nationals, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees saying Australia has broken its word, how the refugee deal between the US and Australia is going, and Bill Shorten’s upcoming address to the Australia Republic Movement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81758/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of Canberra’s Michelle Grattan and Frances Shannon discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraFrances Shannon, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Research, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817102017-07-27T12:14:46Z2017-07-27T12:14:46ZGrattan on Friday: If High Court disqualifies Canavan, Joyce will be scratching for cabinet replacement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180012/original/file-20170727-8533-1kjfdua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Legal experts are unsure what the High Court may decide on Matt Canavan.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Senate, bordering on the farcical all year, has finally descended into burlesque, with the tale of the bright young cabinet minister whose mum made him a son of her parents’ old country.</p>
<p>Before the strange case of the Nationals’ Matthew Canavan burst into public view, the Senate had already lost four of its number, under various parts of the Constitution’s Section 44, including the Greens’ two co-deputies within a week.</p>
<p>And then there’s been the media chase after One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts, in pursuit of documents to back his assertion he didn’t hold British citizenship when he nominated for the Senate.</p>
<p>Canavan’s story of how he was signed up for Italian citizenship – unknown to him, he says – by his Australian-born mother of Italian heritage, is as bizarre as they come.</p>
<p>It’s anyone’s guess whether the High Court will find he’s in breach of Section 44, which rules out dual citizens standing for parliament.</p>
<p>There are differences here with the circumstances of the two Greens, who were born overseas and hadn’t quashed their other citizenship, making their ineligibility clearer cut. Neither chose to dispute the situation. </p>
<p>Legal experts are unsure what the High Court may conclude on Canavan. There are also claims and counter-claims of what one is required, or not required, to do to become Italian.</p>
<p>So, it is not surprising the government has decided to fight for Canavan, who has resigned as a minister while his parliamentary status is determined.</p>
<p>For the Nationals, the stakes are particularly high and complicated.</p>
<p>If Canavan were found ineligible to have been elected, there’d be a countback, with his replacement being Joanna Lindgren, a former senator who lost in 2016. Lindgren is a grand-niece of the late Neville Bonner, the first Indigenous person elected to federal parliament.</p>
<p>A Liberal when she was a senator, Lindgren would likely find herself in the Nationals’ partyroom.</p>
<p>Where she sat would not be her decision but that of the Queensland Liberal National Party. The two parties are merged in that state, though they’re sharp-elbowed bedfellows, who break into their separate tribes once in Canberra. It is understood the LNP would not allow the loss of Canavan to disrupt the present balance of numbers coming out of Queensland.</p>
<p>Until the court case is decided – by year’s end on the optimistic assessment – Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce is acting in Canavan’s resources and northern Australia portfolio.</p>
<p>This will overload Joyce, who already looks under strain, this week making injudicious comments about the alleged theft of water by irrigators. Even if Canavan survives, his immediate absence from cabinet is a blow to Joyce, because he provides policy heft.</p>
<p>If the case goes against Canavan, Joyce would face a dilemma in who to elevate to cabinet.</p>
<p>The most obvious choice, on seniority and experience, would be the only National in the outer ministry: Small Business Minister Michael McCormack. But McCormack is from New South Wales. The Nationals would be desperate to keep up their representation from Queensland, a vital state for them, and the Coalition generally, at the election.</p>
<p>Queenslander Keith Pitt is an assistant minister, but his critics say he’s been difficult rather than supportive in that role. Then you get to backbenchers such as senator Barry O'Sullivan, based in Toowoomba, and David Littleproud, from the regional seat of Maranoa.</p>
<p>Littleproud is spoken of as a man with a future, but is a newcomer. There are wildly opposite views on O'Sullivan, a one-time detective and later businessman, whose performances with Senate committee witnesses can resemble the tougher side of police interrogation. His critics think he should be bumped from the Senate ticket at the next opportunity; his admirers believe he could be cabinet material.</p>
<p>The High Court decision on Canavan will at least provide clarity on a more obscure aspect of the dual citizenship ban.</p>
<p>Inevitably, however, the slew of actual or potential victims of Section 44 has led to calls for constitutional change.</p>
<p>There are arguments for and against the dual citizenship prohibition but convenience should not be included. Notwithstanding the peculiar Canavan situation, surely aspiring politicians should be able to ascertain if they have a foreign citizenship.</p>
<p>On the question of substance, some argue that in a multicultural community there should not be a requirement to relinquish citizenship of another country. There is the counter argument – which I think is more compelling – that the single allegiance is a reasonable condition to impose on those responsible for making national decisions.</p>
<p>Dual citizenship could throw up perceived conflicts of interest – for example, for trade or foreign ministers.</p>
<p>Two other parts of the wide-ranging Section 44 claiming victims this year relate to having a direct or indirect pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth, designed to prevent corruption and conflicts of interest, and being “under sentence, or subject to be sentenced” for an offence carrying a year or more imprisonment.</p>
<p>The eligibility of a House of Representatives Nationals MP, David Gillespie, an assistant minister, is being challenged in the High Court by Labor on the ground of having an indirect pecuniary interest, because of a post office located within a shopping centre owned by a company in which he is a shareholder.</p>
<p>In 1977 Malcolm Fraser won a change to Section 15 of the Constitution to ensure a casual Senate vacancy is filled by a member of the same party. This followed shenanigans by a couple of conservative state governments in filling vacancies in the Whitlam government’s time.</p>
<p>That change was simple and demonstrably the right thing to do. In contrast, an attempt to alter the dual citizenship ban – and indeed any other qualification rule in Section 44 – would be more contested. That, and today’s generally negative electoral mood, would likely doom any referendum.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/axx2w-6d8662?from=site&skin=1&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=0" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even if Matt Canavan survives, his immediate absence from cabinet is a blow to Barnaby Joyce.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/816222017-07-27T02:04:03Z2017-07-27T02:04:03ZExplainer: Matt Canavan and the process of obtaining Italian citizenship<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179759/original/file-20170726-10549-1el1l4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Matt Canavan says he did not know he was an Italian citizen, claiming his mother signed him up on his behalf.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland senator <a href="https://youtu.be/65pmpe_5MI8">Matt Canavan’s claim</a> that his mother signed him up for Italian citizenship – without his knowledge or consent – is a convenient justification for an embarrassing oversight that could <a href="https://theconversation.com/constitutions-wide-net-catches-even-mps-who-had-no-idea-theyre-foreign-citizens-81573">cost him his political career</a>. Australia’s Constitution <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/link.aspx?_id=074367F0015D42C2B005207F5642376A&_z=z%20-%20chapter-01_part-04_44">bars dual citizens</a> from standing for, or sitting in, federal parliament.</p>
<p>Canavan says he did not know he was an Italian citizen. He was not born in Italy and he has never lived in Italy – yet he was seemingly able to obtain Italian citizenship. How?</p>
<h2>Blood matters</h2>
<p>Italy’s citizenship policy is considered one of the most generous among European countries. Based on the <a href="http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100027515"><em>ius sanguinis</em> principle</a> (law of blood), it allows Italian descendants to pass on Italian citizenship to family members.</p>
<p>The policy does not put any limitations on Italian citizenship acquired in this way. If a person can demonstrate they have an Italian ancestor, they are entitled to apply for Italian citizenship and acquire full citizenship rights. This includes voting rights and a pension, together with a European Union passport.</p>
<p>Over the years, people with Italian blood have started what’s been described by former Italian prime minister Giuliano Amato and others as the “ancestor hunt” to demonstrate their “Italianness” to Italian authorities.</p>
<h2>Exploitation of Italian citizenship policy</h2>
<p>Italian authorities have, in recent years, noticed an increasing number of citizenship applications coming from countries outside the Schengen Area (a collection of 26 European countries that allow visa-free travel). </p>
<p>This has <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=vmLEIYp90qoC&">raised questions</a> about the possible exploitation of the policy by some Italian descendants who are not interested in actively becoming part of the Italian community. Instead, they are interested in gaining an EU passport.</p>
<p>In 2015, there were roughly 4.8 million Italian citizens <a href="http://www.aise.it/primo-piano/rapporto-migrantes-2016-la-mobilit%C3%A0-%C3%A8-una-risorsa/72426/160">living outside Italy</a>. In 2016, the largest presence of Italians abroad was <a href="http://www.esteri.it/mae/resource/doc/2016/07/annuario_statistico2016_r_070716.pdf">in Argentina</a>. </p>
<p>The South American country was one of the most popular destinations for Italian emigrants in the 19th and 20th centuries, but it is not a destination country today. However, it remains the country with the most Italian citizens living abroad, with an <a href="http://ucs.interno.gov.it/ucs/allegati/Download:Acquisto_concessione_e_reiezione_della_cittadinanza_italiana-5729609.htm">increasing number of applications</a> lodged by Italian descendants to obtain an Italian passport.</p>
<p>Australia has the tenth-largest number of Italian citizens abroad; it is home to 148,483 Italian citizens. However, potentially thousands of Italian descendants (second-, third- and fourth-generation Italians) living in Australia could demonstrate to Italian consulates and embassies that they have “Italian blood” and obtain an Italian passport – as Canavan’s mother seems to have done.</p>
<h2>Are all Italo-Australians Italian citizens?</h2>
<p>Not all Italo-Australians are de-facto Italian citizens. For example, despite his Italian background, Greens leader Richard Di Natale is not an Italian citizen.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"888252926937845760"}"></div></p>
<p>To obtain Italian citizenship, a formal request must be submitted to an Italian embassy or consulate. This process requires a significant number of steps and <a href="http://www.consmelbourne.esteri.it/consolato_melbourne/en/per-i-cittadini/comites.html">documents attached</a> to the application. These include birth certificates and other documents related to the main applicant and their relatives to prove the claim to citizenship is valid.</p>
<p>Most importantly, the main applicant (if 18 years of age or older) needs to sign these documents. This point is very important in relation to Canavan’s case, as he claims his mother applied on his behalf, despite him being older than 18 at the time. </p>
<p>Italo-Australians with dual citizenship can also renounce their Italian citizenship.</p>
<h2>The right to dual citizenship</h2>
<p>Allowing people to have more than one citizenship is considered the norm in the majority of Western countries. Having more than one citizenship is no longer considered a violation of the trust between a country and its people.</p>
<p>A passport has lost its original meaning over time, too. It has largely become a mere tool to facilitate people movement and give greater opportunities to those who have more than one citizenship.</p>
<p>It might be perceived as a great privilege or undeserved gift, as in the case of Italy’s generous legislation – especially when the gift is an EU passport. But since this is a right, why should people renounce it? </p>
<p>Australia allows its citizens to have dual citizenship. And it cannot control the regulation of other countries’ policies.</p>
<p>The Italian government is not even remotely considering revising the existing policy regarding Italians abroad. The pillar of the policy remains the <em>ius sanguinis</em> principle, and people with Italian blood will always be Italian – if they want to be.</p>
<p>While Australia’s High Court will need to rule on Canavan’s eligibility to continue his political career, in the eyes of Italian law he will always be Italian – with or without citizenship.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chiara De Lazzari is affiliated with the Contemporary European Studies Association of Australia (CESAA).
. </span></em></p>Matt Canavan was seemingly able to obtain Italian citizenship without being born or spending any time in Italy.Chiara De Lazzari, Teaching and Research Associate at the University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/815732017-07-25T23:48:03Z2017-07-25T23:48:03ZConstitution’s wide net catches even MPs who had no idea they’re foreign citizens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179721/original/file-20170725-30152-rabg5j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Matt Canavan has been told that he is an Italian citizen.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cabinet minister Matt Canavan has become the latest federal MP to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/nationals-matt-canavan-quits-as-resources-minister-in-latest-citizenship-blow-81570">tripped up</a> by the Australian Constitution’s ban on dual citizens serving in parliament. On Tuesday, the Nationals senator resigned from cabinet, pending an investigation into whether he holds Italian citizenship.</p>
<p>Canavan’s case, and those of the two Greens senators – Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters, who resigned from parliament entirely over their dual citizenship earlier this month – have provoked <a href="https://theconversation.com/greens-resignations-show-a-need-to-change-dual-citizenship-requirements-81181">calls for changes</a> to the Constitution.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/link.aspx?_id=074367F0015D42C2B005207F5642376A&_z=z%20-%20chapter-01_part-04_44">Section 44(i)</a> of the Constitution states “any person who is under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or a citizen of a foreign power” is ineligible to stand for, or sit in, federal parliament. </p>
<p>At the heart of the current controversy is that the senators were either ignorant of their second nationality or believed themselves to have lost it. For some this amounted to carelessness – even <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/07/19/turnbull-calls-greens-citizenship-problems-sloppiness">“incredible sloppiness”</a>, in Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s words – by them or their party.</p>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/backgrounders/constitutional-disqual-intending-candidates.htm">advises</a> potential parliamentary candidates with a foreign nationality that they will be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… disqualified from election to parliament if they do not take “all reasonable steps” to renounce their other citizenship before nomination.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The AEC also says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Taking all reasonable steps necessitates the use of renunciation procedures of the other country where such procedures are available.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what about cases where someone was not in a position to take “reasonable steps”, because their second citizenship was unknown to them?</p>
<h2>What the High Court has previously found</h2>
<p>The AEC’s advice refers to a <a href="http://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/showbyHandle/1/231112#XN.37">1992 case</a> in which the High Court closely examined Section 44(i) for the first time.</p>
<p>The case concerned the eligibility of candidates in the 1992 by-election for the lower house seat of Wills. It included a meticulous examination of what it meant for an Australian to hold a foreign nationality, and how a nationality might be discharged. </p>
<p>The court recognised that Liberal candidate John Delacretaz and Labor’s Bill Kardamitsis, both naturalised Australians, had lived in and contributed to Australia for many years, and that neither had taken any advantage of their other citizenship over that time.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the court’s majority concluded that any candidate who had not actively renounced their foreign citizenship was constitutionally disqualified, regardless of whether there had been any benefit from, reliance upon, or even acknowledgement of that citizenship. </p>
<p>The mere entitlement to a foreign nationality was enough. This interpretation has applied ever since.</p>
<p>But two dissenting judgments offered an alternative perspective. This may provide guidance in thinking about the meaning of the Constitution’s provision today, and even an alternative to the difficult task of constitutional change. </p>
<p>Although certain facts differed from the current examples – the candidates were not native-born Australians, and the naturalisation process at the relevant time included renunciation of all other allegiances – the reasoning still applies.</p>
<p>Two principal questions were considered:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Did the disqualification rule really apply in the absence of active identification with, or allegiance to, a foreign country? </p></li>
<li><p>And should the interpretation of the Constitution be subject to other countries’ laws?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In justice William Deane’s view, the whole of Section 44(i) should apply:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… only to cases where the relevant status, rights or privileges [of citizenship] have been sought, accepted, asserted or acquiesced in by the person concerned. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>For an Australian-born citizen, Deane concluded, there should be no disqualification unless there was such a “relationship with the foreign power”. For a naturalised citizen, doing all that “can reasonably be expected to extinguish any former relationship with a foreign country to the extent that it involves the status, rights or privileges” of citizenship would be sufficient to overcome disqualification.</p>
<p>Both justices also recognised that each country has the sovereign power to determine its own citizenship law. But, in justice Mary Gaudron’s view, “every consideration of public policy and common sense tells against the automatic recognition and application of foreign law as the sole determinant” of the constitutional rights of Australian citizens.</p>
<p>Deane posed a hypothetical. What if a foreign power decided to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… disqualify the whole of the Australian parliament by unilaterally conferring upon all of its members the rights and privileges of a citizen of that nation? </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, what are the limits in treating unintended or unwanted foreign citizenship as genuine foreign allegiance? </p>
<p>Many countries (Ireland, for example) automatically confer citizenship on the children of their citizens. Many Australians will not be aware they have received such a “gift”.</p>
<p>If, as <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/senate/legal_and_constitutional_affairs/completed_inquiries/pre1996/constitutional/index">has been said</a>, Section 44(i) was designed so MPs “did not have a split allegiance and were not, as far as possible, subject to any improper influence from foreign governments”, surely citizenship of which one is ignorant cannot create such conflicts?</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Responding to Canavan’s troubles, Attorney-General George Brandis suggested Canavan was not disqualified because his Italian citizenship was acquired “without [his] knowledge or consent”. </p>
<p>This may not be correct under current constitutional law; the government will refer Canavan’s case to the High Court. But it captures a perspective that is well worth consideration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Irving does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At the heart of the current controversy is that the senators were either ignorant of their second nationality or believed themselves to have lost it.Helen Irving, Professor, Faculty of Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.