tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/motorways-11592/articlesMotorways – The Conversation2021-09-20T16:18:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1680212021-09-20T16:18:29Z2021-09-20T16:18:29ZInsulate Britain: blocking roads will alienate some people – but it’s still likely to be effective<p>Insulate Britain is a campaign group urging government action on greenhouse gas emissions and fuel poverty in the country’s housing stock. Their methods have recently landed them in the news, as activists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/15/green-protesters-bring-m25-traffic-to-a-halt-for-second-time-this-week">blocked parts of the M25</a> – the motorway surrounding London – by sitting on slip roads and in the carriageway until their removal by police. </p>
<p>The long delays their protests caused drew outrage from motorists and much of the media that reported it. So what is the purpose of this kind of disruption, made popular in recent years by Extinction Rebellion (XR)?</p>
<p>The American sociologist <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Social-Movements-1768---2018/Tilly-Castaneda-Wood/p/book/9780367076085?gclid=CjwKCAjw-ZCKBhBkEiwAM4qfF0VHBNbgJLgg2hMg9eqk7tSFD_Hci0NBC6ArrHa0nRe4eOo8KsdRexoC3LUQAvD_BwE">Charles Tilly</a> argued that all protest actions were what he called WUNC displays: shows of worthiness, unity, numbers and commitment. The goal was not to stop or make something happen directly, but to demonstrate the strength and appeal and values of the protesters, so that both those in power and the general public would listen to their message.</p>
<p>Direct action groups tend to be slightly different from traditional social movements: their actions typically carry higher risks, and they tend to have fewer organisational resources. While they are very committed, being “respectable” isn’t necessarily so important, and the actions are typically carried out by relatively small numbers of people. Creating disruption helps make up for these shortcomings.</p>
<h2>Novelty and attention</h2>
<p>Protest is the language of people denied access to power – it is designed to draw attention, to be seen and heard. It is much more likely for protesters to achieve something if they inconvenience others in the process, rather than (as more established groups tend to do) leading a march or a demo. Many activists in Britain drew that lesson from the massive anti-Iraq war protests of 2003, which mobilised so many people and yet achieved little. </p>
<p>Recently, <a href="https://theconversation.com/decade-of-dissent-how-protest-is-shaking-the-uk-and-why-its-likely-to-continue-125843">researchers</a> have shown this to be true by comparing various kinds of protest over the past decade. Strikes, sit-ins, occupations and blockades have proven more likely to achieve some degree of success than less disruptive protests such as marches, demos or petitions.</p>
<p>One reason for the efficiency of disruption is that it is much more likely to provide press coverage, particularly when it is novel. It’s instructive to compare the Insulate Britain protests with the recent Extinction Rebellion protests. In April 2019, XR were able to garner widespread media and political attention by occupying central London for nearly two weeks. Since then however, doing the same thing has brought diminishing returns: the <a href="https://www.cusp.ac.uk/themes/p/blog-gh-xr-september-2020/">police are better prepared</a>, the actions are less disruptive, they mobilise fewer people, and the media has turned elsewhere.</p>
<p>Yet people stopping traffic on the M25 <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9999901/Priti-Patel-orders-police-decisive-action-against-Insulate-Britain-M25-protest.html">has attracted attention</a>. And the small group of activists have managed to get their demands – insulate all social housing by 2025 and all homes by 2030 – printed in <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16126456/protest-group-insulate-britain/">national newspapers</a>. Their clear demands are an evolution of XR’s preference for leaving details of what policies are needed to tackle climate change to a future citizens’ assembly.</p>
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<img alt="A worker in blue overalls rolls out wool in an attic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422112/original/file-20210920-13-1fa6bwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A nationwide retrofit and insulation campaign could slash emissions and fuel poverty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worker-insulate-attic-mineral-wool-1898667700">Irin-k/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Is annoying people worthwhile?</h2>
<p>Critics say that blocking roads hurts vulnerable people. In this case, talk radio hosts highlighted delays to <a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/m25-insulate-britain-furious-mother/">one girl’s taxi journey</a> to her special needs school. In the case of anti-fracking activists who blocked the A583 in Lancashire in July 2017, the trial judge argued that the inconvenience caused – the police had to set up a contraflow – justified sending three of them to jail on a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/fracking-protesters-jailed-cuadrilla-little-plumpton-lancashire-shale-gas-drilling-a8556331.html">public nuisance charge</a>.</p>
<p>But as any motorist can tell you, these things happen every day. If you drive a car to work, you’ll know how often you are delayed, by accidents, roadworks, sheer weight of traffic.</p>
<p>Other critics will point to the confused logic of blocking roads for the cause of insulating homes. There is, indeed, little connection between the two, unlike activists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/19/students-protest-at-science-museum-over-sponsorship-by-shell">occupying the Science Museum</a> to protest Shell’s sponsorship of its climate change exhibition, or blockades of fracking sites. But then again, there isn’t much of a direct connection between marching through London and demanding that British forces don’t invade Iraq, either.</p>
<p>Where groups engage in more indirect forms of disruption, it’s necessary to do more behind the scenes for the protest to make sense, including making the link explicit for onlookers. <a href="https://www.insulatebritain.com/">Insulate Britain</a> held banners with their name and logo – a quick search on the web takes you to a website outlining what the group wants. It is, in other words, all about the target audience, the public, which activists reach through the media. Nothing will be achieved there and then. Britain’s homes will not be insulated as a result of this particular protest.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-numbers-that-lay-bare-the-mammoth-effort-needed-to-insulate-britains-homes-162540">Five numbers that lay bare the mammoth effort needed to insulate Britain's homes</a>
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<p>Of course, disruptive protest annoys people, and protesters sometimes lose support because of this. YouGov measured public support for XR recently and found that nearly half of those polled have a <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/09/03/3ee46/1">negative opinion of the group</a>. But broad popularity isn’t all that relevant. Direct action groups aren’t running for elections. They don’t need to be supported by a majority. At least 73% of those polled had heard of XR – more than Momentum (33%), Stonewall (50%), ActionAid (60%), or the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (64%).</p>
<p>What Insulate Britain want is to highlight political inertia and force the government to take action. And it is unlikely that people will be against insulating homes just because they get annoyed at protesters. An estimated <a href="https://www.nea.org.uk/articles/what-is-fuel-poverty/?parent=about-us">four million UK households</a> currently live in fuel poverty. Insulating homes is an essential part of lowering Britain’s emissions – and saving British households a lot of money. So, while Insulate Britain may well not be popular, their strategy appears to be to take the hit among some groups who might be irked by their methods in order to get home insulation in the news and up the government’s agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oscar Berglund is a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Hayes is a member of the Labour Party.</span></em></p>Climate activists don’t have to be popular to achieve their goals.Oscar Berglund, Lecturer in International Public and Social Policy, University of BristolGraeme Hayes, Reader in Political Sociology, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1652632021-07-29T16:18:52Z2021-07-29T16:18:52ZE-highways: why motorway cables are probably not the best way to decarbonise lorries<p>Road transport accounts for around <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2020">a quarter of all CO₂ emissions</a> – reducing this is crucial to reaching net zero emissions in the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en">next 25 years</a>. When it comes to alternative fuels in passenger vehicles like cars, the automotive industry seems united around batteries and electric motors. In the UK, the growth in electric vehicle sales matches the decline in new <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/evs-and-afvs-registrations/">petrol and diesel</a> cars. </p>
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<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/e-highways-why-motorway-cables-are-probably-not-the-best-way-to-decarbonise-lorries-165263&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p>But when it comes to the haulage industry, with its lorries and other heavy goods vehicles (often abbreviated to HGVs), the path is not so clear. Each HGV weighs <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh05-licensed-heavy-goods-vehicles">3.5 tonnes</a> or more and <a href="https://assets.new.siemens.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid:91378999-ec01-4c27-a469-4da416ad26de/smo-ehighway-facts-about-climate-friendly-road-freight-transport.pdf">travels long distances</a>. Diesel has been the fuel of choice, offering fast refuel times and long ranges on a full tank.</p>
<p>Of course, diesel engines emit CO₂, and so the industry and governments are <a href="https://trl.co.uk/about-us/our-vision-mission/harmful-emissions">trialling new technologies</a> to clean up the sector. The UK government recently announced £2 million in funding to research the feasibility of installing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/27/uk-government-backs-scheme-for-motorway-cables-to-power-lorries">overhead power lines</a> on a section of motorway near Scunthorpe to power lorries without fossil fuels. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An overhead voltage cable on an e-highway track." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413742/original/file-20210729-17-4eynxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">E-highways would power lorries in a similar way to trams and trains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/detail-overhead-voltage-cable-on-ehighway-1640760415">XXLPhoto/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Known as e-highways, and similar to what you get above trains and trams, poles are set up along the inside lane of the motorway. From these, 700 volt power lines are hung which the lorries connect to via a device known as a pantograph, which provides the power to the motor.</p>
<h2>Motorway trams?</h2>
<p>Questions about this system of powering HGVs abound. How will the lorries overtake or leave the lane while connected to the power lines? What might happen if the overhead cables strike the vehicle’s load? Trials are ongoing <a href="https://group.vattenfall.com/press-and-media/newsroom/2021/sweden-and-germany-are-leading-the-development-for-electric-roads">across continental Europe</a> to try to answer these questions. </p>
<p>While this system is undoubtedly the most efficient way to power a vehicle – no energy is lost between the power lines and the lorry – it is potentially the most difficult to coordinate, as it will require a whole new set of infrastructure on roads and an entire fleet of compatible vehicles, as well as a way of charging haulage companies for the electricity they use. All of this equates to higher costs for an industry that works on <a href="https://www.fleetpoint.org/logistics/logistics-costs-set-to-rise-warns-logistics-uk/">tight margins</a> as it is. </p>
<p>Siemens, the German company leading many of these trials, suggests that lorries will need to have an engine or motor and fuel source such as batteries or diesel, as well as the pantograph system to make them compatible with the e-highway. This will surely make them more expensive to buy, though a study in the UK suggested that hauliers would recoup some of this on fuel savings <a href="http://www.csrf.ac.uk/2020/07/white-paper-long-haul-freight-electrification/">by using electricity</a>. The same study estimates the cost of building power lines to cover 65% of the UK’s lorry routes will be in the region of £20 billion.</p>
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<img alt="Overhead contact wires span an e-highway in Germany." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413765/original/file-20210729-17-oehcba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">E-highway systems have been tested in Germany, Sweden, the US and soon, the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-overhead-contact-wire-hybrid-trucks-1428885446">Maren Winter/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>The alternatives</h2>
<p>There are two other technologies with zero tailpipe emissions available to HGVs. The first is the <a href="http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/fcevs/">hydrogen fuel cell</a>, which turns pressurised hydrogen into electricity and water (so not strictly zero emission, but certainly zero carbon) to power a motor. The second replaces the hydrogen and the fuel cell with a large lithium-ion battery, which can be recharged at conventional high-power charging stations, or HGV-specific “megachargers”, such as those planned by the <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-megacharger-charging-port-close-up-look/">carmaker Tesla</a>. </p>
<p>Both of these options present similar problems to e-highways. The most significant is a lack of infrastructure – there are just ten hydrogen fuelling stations <a href="http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/stations/">in the UK</a>, and these are better equipped for refuelling cars than lorries. UK rapid charging stations for electric vehicles exist in their thousands, but they take hours longer to fully charge an HGV compared with a car, and so are more suitable for overnight charging.</p>
<p>The haulage industry will want clarity from the government over which technology it should back, as its vehicles cost a lot of money and must continue to generate income, as well as keep essential goods moving in the UK. This is no doubt the reason that trials are ongoing, to try and understand which option hauliers should take. </p>
<p>It’s doubtful that all three technologies will end up in mainstream use, so where does the industry’s future lie? E-highways will be efficient, and the technology is already well understood from use in the rail industry, so workers have the skills to implement them. But the most liberal estimate is still <a href="http://www.csrf.ac.uk/2020/07/white-paper-long-haul-freight-electrification/">65% road coverage</a> by the late 2030s. Lorries would still need an independent way of moving when off the e-highway. </p>
<p>Hydrogen will need a massive investment in infrastructure too, and is potentially <a href="https://4thgeneration.energy/life-cycles-emissions-of-hydrogen/">not as green</a> as electricity as <a href="https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/hydrogen">95% of the gas</a> today is generated from fossil fuels.</p>
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<img alt="A hydrogen fuel pump at a service station with lorries in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413737/original/file-20210729-23-gakig6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A fully hydrogen-fuelled lorry fleet is a long way off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/self-service-hydrogen-filling-station-on-1921761497">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Which leaves electric battery power. The rate at which people are switching to battery electric vehicles and the availability of <a href="https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/">chargers is increasing</a> exponentially, while the cost of the technology decreases. But the much-hyped Tesla Semi truck has been <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/26/tesla-delays-semi-truck-to-2022-cybertruck-back-burnered-for-model-y/">pushed back</a> another year and the company continues to concentrate on passenger cars. And the issue holding all EVs back is <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/batteries-storage/evs-to-drive-a-lithium-supply-crunch">supply of batteries</a>, which is struggling to keep pace with the growth of ownership.</p>
<p>To lower emissions and get to market quickly, electric batteries may prove to be the better option, though an ultimate mix of hydrogen and electric is likely. On a large scale, e-highways might push upfront costs too far for hauliers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Stacey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Heavy goods vehicles predominantly run on diesel. Here are three options for eliminating their emissions.Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1584992021-04-08T15:04:20Z2021-04-08T15:04:20ZRoad building is supposed to cut congestion and boost the economy – my research suggests otherwise<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394045/original/file-20210408-13-1owlnsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4896%2C3664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/little-linford-buckinghamshire-uk-july-21-1457293622">Clive Stapleton/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>British politicians, national and local, tend to like investing in roads. The Treasury believes that the Department for Transport’s approach to economic analysis is sound, and so is willing to award substantial funds. The department is happy to accept them, as are the civil engineering contractors that benefit. </p>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/road-building-is-supposed-to-cut-congestion-and-boost-the-economy-my-research-suggests-otherwise-158499&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p>The most recent result is a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951100/road-investment-strategy-2-2020-2025.pdf">£27.4 billion</a> investment programme designed to maintain and enlarge England’s motorways and A-roads over five years. Part of this will involve creating so-called smart motorways, where the hard shoulder is converted into an extra lane for moving traffic and electronic message boards broadcast information to control the speed of drivers and manage incidents. </p>
<p>This innovation has raised <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8962/">safety concerns</a>, with some worried about the risk of collisions in the event of a breakdown. Elsewhere, the decision to invest in 4,000 miles of road has been criticised for underestimating the associated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/06/co2-from-englands-road-plan-up-to-100-times-more-than-dft-says">carbon emissions</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An office full of computers depicting roads and traffic data." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394055/original/file-20210408-13-1rksind.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inside a smart motorway control centre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_motorway#/media/File:Highways_Agency_Smart_Motorways_control_centre.jpg">Highways Agency/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government’s defence is that expanding the road network helps reduce traffic congestion and boosts economic growth. I decided to scrutinise these claims by <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cqCk3Rd3uuBQe">analysing</a> the outcome of expanding a section of the M25 into a smart motorway in 2014.</p>
<p>For each of these schemes to get the go-ahead, a cost-benefit analysis must confirm that it is good value for money. This is generally provided by transport consultants who operate complex models that require them to estimate many different parameters. The modellers naturally wish to please their clients with their best estimate of value for money. But the resulting optimism bias leads politicians to exaggerate the benefits of adding new road capacity. On this point, the M25 case study shows that the public are being misled.</p>
<h2>A smart decision?</h2>
<p>Highways England, a Department for Transport-owned company responsible for the country’s motorways, published detailed traffic monitoring reports for the first three years after opening a smart motorway scheme between Junctions 23 and 27 of the M25 London orbital route. </p>
<p>The road was enlarged from three to four lanes in each direction. While traffic flowed faster one year after opening, this advantage was lost by year two thanks to the increase in traffic volume, up 16% compared with 7% for other motorways in the region. </p>
<p>Road investment is supposed to benefit the economy by shaving precious minutes off travel time. Traffic models are used to estimate how big time savings are likely to be in order to justify each investment. The model used in the M25 case projected substantial travel time savings worth over £400 million to those travelling for business reasons – both cars and good vehicles. </p>
<p>There were also smaller time savings for local road users, both commuters and those taking short trips. But these were almost entirely offset by increased fuel costs. That’s because these local drivers rerouted to the motorway where there was less traffic to save a few minutes on their journey. Ultimately though, they ended up travelling a greater distance by departing from more direct routes.</p>
<p>The M25 traffic model used to justify the smart motorway investment substantially underestimated this increase in traffic volume, while overestimating the average increase in speed for most drivers, put at about 10 km per hour. The benefit-cost ratio was estimated to be 2.9, that is, £2.90 of economic benefit for every £1 invested. Since the travel time savings didn’t last beyond the first year after opening, the actual benefit-cost ratio was much lower.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two four-lane motorways side by side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394052/original/file-20210408-15-1yn88pc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This stretch of the M25 lost its hard shoulder, creating four lanes of running traffic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_motorway#/media/File:M25_looking_west_from_junction_24_near_Potters_Bar.jpg">Philafrenzy/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While enlarging the motorway was intended to benefit the economy by allowing those travelling for their employer to save time and so be more productive, the extra road capacity was largely taken up by an increase in local road users. Any economic benefit they might have gained by saving a few minutes of travel time was offset by higher fuel costs. </p>
<p>The M25 was created to allow long-distance traffic – for instance, from the Channel ports to the Midlands – to avoid central London. Although local road users inevitably take advantage of the motorway for short trips, sometimes known as “junction hopping”, these reduce the economic benefits and add to carbon emissions and air pollution. </p>
<p>England’s motorways and major roads are under greatest stress around built-up areas, where local and long-distance traffic vie for road space. This is where the government’s new road investment is concentrated. There are ten smart motorway schemes in the current investment programme, with an <a href="https://highwaysengland.co.uk/media/vs3h1jx2/gfd20_0072-economic-analysis-of-rp2-brochure_v4.pdf">average benefit-cost ratio of 2.4</a>. This seems extremely optimistic in light of what happened with the M25.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One more lane won’t fix Britain’s congested motorways.David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1517322021-01-08T16:20:10Z2021-01-08T16:20:10ZHow city roads trap migrating fish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377769/original/file-20210108-15-1o1reki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Salmon crowd a river in Washington State in the US as they swim upstream to spawn.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/multicolored-coho-sockeye-chinook-salmon-issaquah-1274610649">Danita Delimont/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Greater London is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/road-lengths-in-great-britain-2019">crisscrossed</a> by 14,800km of public roads, each with an average width of 8m. This network accounts for 8% of the metropolitan area, and motorways and A-roads alone cross the Thames and its tributaries at least 400 times. A similar picture is seen in cities across the world.</p>
<p>You’ve heard of, and maybe seen, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reports-of-uk-roadkill-down-two-thirds-but-will-hedgehogs-thrive-after-lockdown-137645">hedgehogs</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildlife-can-be-saved-from-becoming-roadkill-with-a-new-tool-that-finds-the-best-locations-for-fences-147153">deer</a> meeting sticky ends while trying to traverse the tarmac labyrinth. But fish need to cross roads too. Where roads cross small rivers – and they do, hidden underfoot, a lot more than you realise – you get structures like <a href="https://theconversation.com/culverts-the-major-threat-to-fish-youve-probably-never-heard-of-143629">culverts</a>. These are tunnels installed under roads and rail lines which are supposed to help the rivers flowing underneath stay connected.</p>
<p>But culverts, like dams and weirs, can limit the movement of water, nutrients and species in the rivers they conceal. Globally, the numbers of monitored migratory fish species have <a href="https://worldfishmigrationfoundation.com/living-planet-index-2020">declined</a> by an average of 76% since 1970. Culverts have contributed to this by disrupting the access of these species to food and spawning areas. Poorly installed, ageing, damaged, and “perched” culverts that form mini waterfalls on the downstream side of the structure modify water flows and prevent fishes from migrating up and downstream.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two large, metal tunnels with flowing water set in the side of a motorway embankment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377758/original/file-20210108-15-17mh6ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migratory fish can struggle to pass through culverts with raised outflows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/culvert-drain-under-road-small-river-637070674">Maximillian cabinet/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this is not the only effect that roads have on rivers. Roads carrying high volumes of traffic are also sources of toxic chemicals, which can run off tarmac and into nearby streams. Combined, culverts and chemicals create unhealthy environments that migratory fishes cannot avoid. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/culverts-the-major-threat-to-fish-youve-probably-never-heard-of-143629">Culverts – the major threat to fish you've probably never heard of</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>That’s not a roundabout, it’s a trap</h2>
<p>Like London, many of the world’s largest cities are nestled at river mouths – the first ports of call for migratory fishes. In the UK, Atlantic salmon return to rivers from the sea to spawn as adults, while European eels return to the same waters to feed as they grow from juveniles to adults. So salmon and eels both need to make it upstream and back again to the sea, navigating these large cities with their heavily trafficked roads to complete their lifecycles.</p>
<p>In the US city of Seattle in the 1990s, the habitats of some urban rivers were restored and culverts that had acted as barriers to migratory fish were removed. Despite this positive change, it was subsequently found that within these rivers, up to <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6525/185">90% of Coho salmon</a> migrating upstream to spawn would suddenly die after rainstorms. Scientists determined that the deaths were related to the density of roads and high traffic volumes, but it wasn’t enough to pinpoint the exact cause. </p>
<p>It wasn’t until 2020, more than two decades later, that scientists <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-12-scientists-mystery-mass-coho-salmon.html?utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Phys.org_TrendMD_1">discovered</a> Coho salmon were dying en masse from exposure to a toxic chemical called 6PPD-quinone, which leaches from tyre particles that wash into streams. The <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6521/1145?intcmp=trendmd-sci">researchers believe</a> this compound is probably found on busy roads globally. </p>
<p>A similar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/23/road-runoff-pollution-damages-londons-rivers-study-finds">study</a> from 2019 mapped the roads which contribute the most runoff pollution to rivers across Greater London, using the <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/road_runoff_water_quality_study_exec_summary_dec_19.pdf">number and types of vehicles</a> that travel on a given road each day and monthly rainfall figures. The hotspots of pollution the researchers were able to map corresponded with river catchments already classified as “poor” or “bad” by a recent EU Water Framework Directive assessment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing Greater London's roads and where they cross river tributaries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/376999/original/file-20210104-23-1v8wfq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Roads and water quality in catchments of Greater London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Avoiding the traps</h2>
<p>Around the world, more roads and higher traffic volumes lower the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/23/road-runoff-pollution-damages-londons-rivers-study-finds">water quality</a> of urban rivers, increasing deaths among migratory fish species. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-the-fish-cross-the-road-our-invention-helps-them-get-to-the-other-side-of-a-culvert-103433">Modifying or replacing culverts</a> that limit fish movements will only be <a href="https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/01501/wdfw01501.pdf">part of the solution</a> if the toxic chemicals that run off tarmac and into rivers aren’t also addressed. In pollution hotspots, this will mean capturing and filtering stormwater before it enters rivers.</p>
<p>While much of the concern about cars has focused on air pollution and climate change, it’s increasingly clear that shifting to battery-powered alternatives alone won’t reverse the impacts that roads and driving have on rivers and the wider environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley receives funding from Welsh European Funding Office and European Regional Development Fund under project number 80761-SU-140 (West).</span></em></p>A recent US study found tyre chemicals were polluting rivers and poisoning migratory salmon.Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley, Sêr Cymru Research Fellow in Environmental Sciences, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1470242020-10-06T04:31:33Z2020-10-06T04:31:33ZClimate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360735/original/file-20200930-14-g40oyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=272%2C188%2C3840%2C2294&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oleg Podchashynskyi/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Q: Does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions, or does it increase it?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Historically, building more and wider roads, including motorways, was seen as a way of reducing congestion. This in turn is supposed to lower emissions.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GOZxb07CT8U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The new motorways of the future.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fuel efficiency is optimised for driving at <a href="https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/driveHabits.jsp">around 80kmh</a> and it decreases the faster you go above that. But with <a href="https://www.drivingtests.co.nz/resources/speed-limits-in-new-zealand/">speed limits up to 110kmh</a>, people are likely to drive above 80kmh on motorways — and this means building and expanding motorways will actually increase emissions.</p>
<p>Many countries, especially in Europe, are now looking to <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/speed-limits-fuel-consumption-and">lower speed limits</a> partly to reduce emissions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/remove-car-lanes-restrict-vehicles-and-improve-transit-to-reduce-traffic-congestion-127873">Remove car lanes, restrict vehicles and improve transit to reduce traffic congestion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition to speeding, rapid acceleration and braking can <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/factors.shtml">lower mileage</a> by 15-30% at highway speeds and 10-40% in stop-and-go traffic. If building or expanding motorways did reduce congestion, the smoother driving would be a benefit.</p>
<p>But this assumption is not backed by evidence. <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7276027/traffic-jam">Research shows</a> even on roads with no impediments drivers brake and accelerate unnecessarily, increasing congestion and emissions.</p>
<p>One of the <a href="https://www.itsdigest.com/10-advantages-autonomous-vehicles">arguments for future autonomous vehicles</a> is that such braking and accelerating should not occur and emissions should reduce.</p>
<h2>New roads, new drivers</h2>
<p>The most significant impact new and expanded motorways have on congestion and emissions is the effect on the distance people travel.</p>
<p>Historically, engineers assumed cars (and more pertinently their drivers) would behave like water. In other words, if you had too much traffic for the road space provided, you would build a new road or expand an existing one and cars would spread themselves across the increased road space.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A traffic jam on a motorway to Auckland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360949/original/file-20200930-16-vq33f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Congested traffic on a motorway into the centre of Auckland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">patjo/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, this is not what happens. New road capacity attracts new drivers. In the short term, people who had previously been discouraged from using congested roads start to use them.</p>
<p>In the longer term, people move further away from city centres to take advantage of new roads that allow them to travel further faster.</p>
<p>This is partly due to the “travel time budget” — a concept also known as <a href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4071/1/RR-95-04.pdf" title="Anthropological invariants in travel behavior">Marchetti’s constant</a> — which suggests people are prepared to spend around <a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-one-hour-rule-for-city-travel-traffic-modelling-drives-policy-madness-53099">an hour a day</a> commuting. Cities tend to grow to a diameter of one-hour travel time.</p>
<h2>City sprawl</h2>
<p>The concept is supported by evidence that cities have sprawled more as modes of transport have changed. For example, cities were small when we could only walk, but expanded along transport corridors with rail and then sprawled with the advent of cars. This all allows commuters to travel greater distances within the travel time budget.</p>
<p>Building or expanding roads releases latent demand — widely <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review">defined</a> as “the increment in new vehicle traffic that would not have occurred without the improvement of the network capacity”.</p>
<p>This concept is not new. The first evidence of it can be found back in the 1930s. Later <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.$b3477&view=1up&seq=457" title="The law of peak-hour exprssway congestion">research in 1962</a> found that “on urban commuter expressways, peak-hour traffic congestion rises to meet maximum capacity”.</p>
<p>A considerable body of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review" title="Induced travel demand: an evidence review">evidence</a> is now available to confirm this. But, despite this indisputable fact, many road-improvement decisions continue to be based on the assumption that extra space will not generate new traffic.</p>
<h2>If you build it, they will drive</h2>
<p>A significant change occurred in 1994 when a <a href="https://bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/trunk-roads-traffic-report.pdf">report</a> by the UK Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Appraisal confirmed road building actually generates more traffic.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, this wasn’t acknowledged until the Transport Agency’s 2010 <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/economic-evaluation-manual/volume-2/docs/eem2-july-2010.pdf">Economic Evaluation Manual</a>, which said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] generated traffic often fills a significant portion (50–90%) of added urban roadway capacity.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vehicle lights blur at night on a busy motorway into Auckland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360956/original/file-20200930-18-8ot38a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic increases as motorways expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shaun Jeffers/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some congestion discourages people from driving (suppresses latent demand), but with no congestion traffic will fill road space over time, particularly in or near urban areas.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the opposite can also work. Where road space is removed, demand can be suppressed and traffic reduces without other neighbouring roads becoming overly congested.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-electric-car-batteries-feed-power-back-into-the-grid-143821">Could electric car batteries feed power back into the grid?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One of the best examples of this is the closure of the <a href="https://www.kcet.org/shows/departures/from-freeways-to-waterways-what-los-angeles-can-learn-from-seoul">Cheonggyecheon Freeway</a> in the middle of Seoul, South Korea.</p>
<p>When the busy road was removed from the city, rather than the traffic moving to and congesting nearby roads, <a href="https://vimeo.com/37476124">most of the traffic actually disappeared</a>, as Professor Jeff Kenworthy from Curtin University’s Sustainable Policy Institute notes.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/37476124" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This suppression of latent demand works best when good alternative ways of travel are available, including high-quality public transport or separated cycle lanes.</p>
<p>The short answer to the question about road building and expansion is that new roads do little to reduce congestion, and they will usually result in increased emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Kingham is seconded to the Ministry of Transport two days a week as their Chief Science Advisor. </span></em></p>Motorways were once seen as a way of reducing congestion in our towns and cities. But the more we build, the more they fill with drivers.Simon Kingham, Professor, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1437752020-09-17T11:56:10Z2020-09-17T11:56:10ZBrexit: Ireland’s land bridge to the continent boosts air pollution in the UK<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358324/original/file-20200916-24-a6i76r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4500%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/a1-motorway-berwick-england-uk-november-651439936">Duncan Andison/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A no-deal Brexit could cost up to <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/0728/1155985-fishing-industry-brexit/">5,000 jobs</a> in Ireland’s fisheries, but it’s not just access to the UK’s coastal waters that the country is hoping to hold on to in any post-Brexit arrangement. Perhaps more important to Ireland is the UK’s motorway network. </p>
<p>Every year, more than 150,000 trucks transport over 3 million tonnes of <a href="https://www.imdo.ie/Home/sites/default/files/IMDOFiles/972918%2520IMDO%2520The%2520Implications%2520of%2520Brexit%2520on%2520the%2520Use%2520of%2520the%2520Landbridge%2520Report%2520-%2520Digital%2520Final.pdf">freight</a> to and from Ireland to the rest of the single market across the UK “land bridge” – an arrangement that involves Irish trucks using British motorways to reach the continent. One route involves goods being shipped from Dublin to Holyhead by ferry and then by road to Dover before being shipped to Calais.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to overestimate the importance of this land bridge for Ireland. <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/">A 2017 study</a> found that 40% of Ireland’s exports to the EU reached the continent via the UK’s roads, with an estimated value of <a href="https://www.imdo.ie/Home/sites/default/files/IMDOFiles/972918https:/www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/%2520IMDO%2520The%2520Implications%2520of%2520Brexit%2520on%2520the%2520Use%2520of%2520the%2520Landbridge%2520Report%2520-%2520Digital%2520Final.pdf">€18.2 billion</a> (£16.3 billion). Journey times to the EU market are less than 20 hours by the land bridge, but up to 40 to 60 hours by sea. That’s why it’s the preferred route for companies moving food, live animals and other high-value goods, such as heavy machinery and transport equipment.</p>
<p>A no-deal outcome could sever Ireland’s <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/">most important route to EU markets</a>. But what might the loss of Ireland’s land bridge mean for the UK? <a href="https://wm-air.org.uk/">Our research</a> has found that it could entail substantial benefits for air quality and roads throughout the country.</p>
<h2>Irish freight, British pollution</h2>
<p>From January 1 2021, British goods will be treated as third-country freight by the EU, meaning they will be subject to customs and regulatory controls at European ports. These ports aren’t yet able to differentiate between British and Irish freight, but once they are, a two-speed processing system would ensure Irish trucks are fast tracked through the system and UK trucks subject to regulatory delays. The Irish government is keen to ensure that the land bridge isn’t considered a <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0703/1151272-brexit-land-bridge/">major negotiating point</a> in UK-EU trade negotiations.</p>
<p>But for the UK, there is another dimension to the land bridge that has been completely overlooked. All the benefits that come from it accrue to Ireland and the EU, while all the negatives are borne by British citizens and companies.</p>
<p>The 150,000 truck journeys that Ireland’s imports and exports add to the UK’s road network often cause local congestion. Lorries also cause more damage to road surfaces than most other vehicles, with <a href="https://bettertransport.org.uk/blog/better-transport/lorries-cause-more-damage-roads-cars">one study</a> calculating that a six-axle, 44-tonne truck is over 138,000 times more damaging to the foundations of a road than a small, one-tonne car with two axles. These extra costs are covered by the UK taxpayer. </p>
<p>For the UK, the land bridge means that a third country is directly contributing to national air pollution, with all the <a href="https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/">health consequences</a> that entails. Exposure to nitrogen dioxide pollution can trigger and exacerbate asthma symptoms, and it’s also associated with heart disease and birth complications. Inhaling fine particulate matter (often called “PM2.5”, as these particles are smaller than 2.5 micrometres) is linked to a host of medical conditions, including lung cancer.</p>
<p>We calculated the <a href="https://naei.beis.gov.uk/">quantities</a> of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and PM2.5 produced from 150,000 heavy goods vehicle journeys from Holyhead to Felixstowe (329 miles, or 529 kilometres) and found that it results in an additional 34 tonnes of NOx and 0.7 tonnes of PM2.5 per year being emitted across Wales and England. The PM2.5 calculation is based on exhaust emissions only though, it excludes particulates shed from <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-your-car-sheds-microplastics-into-the-ocean-thousands-of-miles-away-142614">brakes and tyres</a>. Total UK road transport NOx emissions in 2018 were <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865172/Figure_NOx_sector.csv/preview">258,000 tonnes</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/environment-bill-a-laudable-but-disappointing-attempt-to-rewrite-the-law-after-brexit-110858">Environment Bill: a laudable but disappointing attempt to rewrite the law after Brexit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The Irish lorry fleet is also quite a lot older than the UK’s. By 2020, 90% of UK lorries were at Euro VI standard and none were Euro III. In comparison, <a href="https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghg/nir2019/Ireland%2520NIR%25202019_Final.pdf">the latest data</a> for the Irish fleet reveals that almost 20% is Euro III and only 22% Euro VI. This matters, as Euro III engines emit about 30 times more NOx than Euro VI.</p>
<p>Brexit has made visible a source of UK air pollution that is unrelated to the UK economy. The UK-EU trade negotiations should include air pollution and any agreement should include regulations that prevent highly polluting heavy goods vehicles from using the land bridge.</p>
<p>Perhaps one of the strangest outcomes of a no-deal Brexit may be that, for all the potential economic consequences for both Ireland and the UK, Britain’s air pollution problem might substantially improve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Bryson receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Omid Ghaffarpasand receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bloss receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).</span></em></p>Irish trade with the EU contributes an additional 34 tonnes of toxic nitrogen oxides to air in the UK each year.John Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Competitiveness, University of BirminghamOmid Ghaffarpasand, Research Fellow in WM-Air Project, University of BirminghamWilliam Bloss, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1376722020-06-15T13:24:02Z2020-06-15T13:24:02ZWith construction paused, let’s rethink roads and railway projects to protect people and nature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333177/original/file-20200506-49579-1ri6m8r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C494%2C4019%2C2523&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Mongu-Kalabo Road crosses the Barotse Floodplain in western Zambia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charis Enns</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta fumed at construction delays on the <a href="http://www.lapsset.go.ke/">Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor</a> in 2019 – a US$22 billion (£18 billion) transport network that includes a 32-berth port, highways, railways and pipelines. But these delays, caused by financing gaps, afforded fishers, pastoral farmers and conservationists time to <a href="https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2018/05/05/a-civic-action-on-the-lapsset-corridor/">challenge the project in court</a>, and push for <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03066150.2017.1377185">amended plans</a> that better protect local habitats and migratory routes used by people, livestock and wildlife.</p>
<p>While major road and rail projects often break up wilderness and grazing lands, a sudden pause in construction can offer a lifeline to people fighting to protect these areas. </p>
<p>Lockdown restrictions and the uncertainty caused by COVID-19 have made sourcing labour and materials more difficult, increasing construction costs. The result is that infrastructure building has <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heavy-construction-industry-outlook-near-121812221.html">slowed globally</a>, creating a unique opportunity to redesign road and rail projects around the world so that they benefit the people and environments they share the landscape with. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-transition-from-lockdown-is-a-fork-in-the-road-here-are-two-possible-outcomes-for-future-travel-139885">Cars: transition from lockdown is a fork in the road – here are two possible outcomes for future travel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Barriers to travel</h2>
<p>Dozens of new roads, railways and pipelines are under construction in sub-Saharan Africa due to a surge in investment in recent years. Although they are promised to bolster economic growth, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718517303299?casa_token=NJKIAzIw3UIAAAAA:r8cz8sOVnvz6pbcIhmw-bQ4zdPbtlYunhmDJ9ktQYcN9bron82PKcVXrlu1oieoIG83QR5gbRw">our research</a> shows that many of these new mega-highways and high-speed rail lines were approved without meaningful consultation between planners and local people. As a result, they tend to become new barriers that are <a href="https://theconversation.com/massive-african-infrastructure-projects-often-hurt-rather-than-help-local-people-132699">difficult and dangerous to traverse</a>, forcing people to travel long distances to reach safe crossing points. </p>
<p>In dry regions, this can make it difficult to reach vital water sources. Amid farmland and forests, construction can push people from their land or force them to travel further to reach it. Deforestation usually comes before construction too, which encourages people to migrate further into woodland, building new settlements that drive more forest clearing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333161/original/file-20200506-49579-1nbblqo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest is cleared to make way for road construction in central Tanzania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charis Enns</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Poorly designed roads and rail lines can take a heavy toll on human and animal life. During our research between 2017 and 2019, we found too few safe crossing points, inadequate signage and lax speed enforcement along new highways and railways in Kenya and Tanzania, resulting in numerous <a href="https://online.liverpooluniversitypress.co.uk/doi/10.3828/idpr.2020.7">road accidents</a>. </p>
<p>Conservationists are particularly worried by growing roadkill sightings along a new highway in northern Kenya. Endemic and endangered species like <a href="https://www.awf.org/wildlife-conservation/grevys-zebra">the Grevy’s zebra</a> are often killed in collisions with cars and lorries after wandering onto roads that now criss-cross their range. As one pastoral farmer living alongside the new highway <a href="https://ecommons.aku.edu/eastafrica_eai/27/">exclaimed</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>How many animals have died? Uncountable.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The alternative</h2>
<p>Fortunately, there are lots of proven strategies for preventing transport projects from fragmenting habitats, such as building passages across new highways and railways that migratory species can use. Repairing environmental damage caused by construction, by filling in quarries that produce construction materials, for example, can also help restore grazing land for livestock and wildlife. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338606/original/file-20200529-78858-zr05gb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of many quarries dug during construction of the Central Corridor in Tanzania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brock Bersaglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Mongu-Kalabo road constructed over the Barotse floodplain in western Zambia shows these ideas in action. Completed in 2016, the road was built with 26 bridges over the floodplains and regular culverts between bridges, allowing water and wildlife to move across the floodplain without impeding road traffic and trade, even during seasonal floods. </p>
<p>The road was also planned with local cultures in mind. Wetland livelihoods, such as fishing and floodplain farming, aren’t affected by the road since the regular movement of fish and water remains largely undisturbed. By maintaining these flows across the floodplain, cultural traditions have been protected. The annual Kuomboka ceremony that takes place at the end of the rainy season can continue, when the Litunda (king of the Lozi people) moves from his compound in the Barotse floodplain to higher ground.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333143/original/file-20200506-49589-7ljs37.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bridge in the Mongu-Kalabo road, built over the Barotse floodplain in western Zambia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charis Enns</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is no single blueprint for building roads and railways that allow humans and nature to thrive. Wherever construction is planned, <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001287969/communities-along-lapsset-project-want-a-bigger-say">public participation</a> is vital. Gathering the knowledge local people have of their environment can improve the design of these projects, but this insight cannot come from rushed consultations or impact assessments conducted from a distance. Only meaningful and ongoing engagement with local communities and environmental authorities will do.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/normananderson/2020/06/09/the-mighty-effort-to-save-the-36-trillion-global-infrastructure-market/#2b1b7b3864fc">Major infrastructure investment</a> will likely be key to pulling the global economy out of recession. The opportunity to mould upcoming projects won’t last forever, so let’s ensure any new road and rail project is designed with respect to the rights of people and nature.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1137672">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charis Enns receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brock Bersaglio receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Awiti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Road and rail construction is booming in sub-Saharan Africa, but the pandemic has brought a welcome pause for reflection.Charis Enns, Presidential Fellow in Socio-Environmental Systems, University of ManchesterAlex Awiti, Director, East African Institute, Aga Khan University Brock Bersaglio, Lecturer in Environment and Development, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368362020-05-18T20:03:09Z2020-05-18T20:03:09ZIs another huge and costly road project really Sydney’s best option right now?<p>The New South Wales government has focused on delivering more motorways and rail links for Sydney, along with main roads in regional NSW, since the Coalition won office in 2011. The biggest of these, WestConnex, is still being built. Plans for yet another major motorway, the <a href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link</a>, are well advanced. </p>
<p>A hefty environmental impact statement (EIS), but incredibly no business case for a project costing about <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/big-balance-sheets-tested-for-nsw-s-next-15b-roads-project-20190717-p527xx">A$15 billion</a>, was recently put on public exhibition. When submissions closed at the end of March, the vast majority of <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/10451">1,455 submissions</a> from public agencies, individuals and organisations were objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel project.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The NSW government has promoted the Western Harbour Tunnel since announcing it in 2014, but hasn’t convinced the many objectors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G8fYlAP-M4">YouTube/NSW government</a></span>
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<p>The proposal follows three stages of WestConnex and the F6 Extension south of Sydney. Thousands of objections in the planning process did not stop the government going ahead with each stage. </p>
<p>This led to a state parliamentary <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2497/Final%20report%20-%20Impact%20of%20the%20WestConnex%20Project%20-%20FINAL%20-%2014%20December%202018.pdf">inquiry</a> in 2018. Its first finding was: “That the WestConnex project is, notwithstanding issues of implementation raised in this report, a vital and long-overdue addition to the road infrastructure of New South Wales.” </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/health-impacts-and-murky-decision-making-feed-public-distrust-of-projects-like-westconnex-106996">Health impacts and murky decision-making feed public distrust of projects like WestConnex</a>
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<p>However, the committee also found “the NSW Government failed to adequately consider alternative options at the commencement of the WestConnex project” and that “the transparency arrangements pertaining to the WestConnex business case have been unsatisfactory”.</p>
<p>These two findings apply to the Western Harbour Tunnel process too.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the 2019 state election, the government promoted the project and placed on public exhibition an environmental impact statement for the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcillawarra/photos/a.170201826359012/1799373796775132/?type=3&eid=ARCxMdhfJzTCWlRd2sIUTVqLc7P-hfGmJAX00uY3WgnhS5zmMSeB-eYCCDmKAu9AjkfW_xUj3_IrdxXM">A$2.6 billion F6 extension</a> between Arncliffe and Kogarah.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The proposed Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Transport for NSW</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The state opposition promised to scrap the Western Harbour Tunnel and F6 projects. Instead, it would give priority to rail and public transport upgrades. </p>
<p>Some have <a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">suggested time-of-day road congestion charges</a> as a much better option than more motorways.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">How the NSW election promises on transport add up</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Local government objections</h2>
<p>Four councils made detailed objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel proposal. </p>
<p>The City of Sydney, noting “it has been a long-time critic of WestConnex”, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is primarily because this costly motorway project will fail in its primary objective of easing congestion. Urban motorways do not solve congestion; they <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induce demand</a> for motor vehicle trips and any additional capacity created is quickly filled. This phenomenon applies equally to the Western Harbour Tunnel and Warringah Freeway Project, a component of the WestConnex expansion.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The City of Sydney recommended the government provide alternative public transport options.</p>
<p>The Inner West Council, whose suburb of Rozelle will be adversely impacted by the project, has also long opposed inner-urban motorways. It prefers “traffic-reduction solutions to addressing congestion, including public and active transport, travel demand management and transit-oriented development, with some modest/targeted road improvement”.</p>
<p>North Sydney Council noted significant concerns with the EIS, including “inadequate justification and need, loss of open space, construction and operational road network impacts, air quality and human health concerns, environmental, visual, social, amenity and heritage impacts, as well as numerous strategic projects having the potential to be compromised”.</p>
<p>Willoughby City Council noted the limited time given for considering a very large EIS, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. It questioned why a public transport alternative was not assessed. “Known alternative solutions with lower climate impacts need to be considered to be consistent with action on climate change and improved resilience.”</p>
<h2>Ignoring the alternatives</h2>
<p>In 2017, it was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/f6-planners-told-to-ignore-public-transport-build-roads-documents-show-20170407-gvgbon.html">revealed</a> the NSW government was instructing transport officials to ignore public transport alternatives to motorways such as the F6 extension and Western Harbour Tunnel. Wollongong-Sydney train travel times could be cut by half an hour for A$10 billion less, according to a Transport for NSW internal memo. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
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<p>This is at a time when Sydney train ridership has been <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2019/yearbook_2019">increasing faster than the distance driven by Sydney motorists</a>. Rail showed 39% growth over ten years to 2018-19 and road just 12% in a time of rapid population growth.</p>
<p>Over many objections, the F6 extension is proceeding. Many aspects of the Western Harbour Tunnel need further attention. The NSW Ports Authority is concerned about the amount of highly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/warning-about-amount-of-toxic-sludge-to-be-dug-up-for-harbour-tunnel-20200416-p54kd3.html">contaminated sludge that will be dredged up</a> from the harbour. The shadow minister for roads, John Graham, <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnGrahamALP/status/1251415324324319234">notes</a> dredging will be close to residential areas.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1251415324324319234"}"></div></p>
<p>Heritage NSW has noted the project will have direct impacts on six sites, including the approaches to Sydney Harbour Bridge.</p>
<p>The Action for Public Transport (NSW) group questions the influence of the Transurban company on transport planning at a time when NSW’s long-term integrated transport and land use plans aim for net zero emissions by 2050. Its submission says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The funding for the project should be reallocated to more worthwhile projects such as filling in missing links in urban public transport systems, disentangling the passenger rail network from the rail freight network, and providing faster rail links to regional centres.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">Infrastructure splurge ignores smarter ways to keep growing cities moving</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<h2>What are these other priorities?</h2>
<p>NSW has a shortage of “fit for purpose” rail infrastructure to serve a growing population. This includes the Sydney Metro West (an <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/25631">EIS is on exhibition</a>) and ensuring the new Western Sydney Airport has a rail service. More funding is also needed to upgrade the existing rail system and to cover a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/4-3-billion-cost-blowout-in-sydney-s-metro-rail-project">A$4.3 billion cost blowout</a> on the Sydney City and Southwest Metro project. </p>
<p>The government has <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/fast-rail-network-to-transform-australia">acknowledged</a> a need for better rail services to the South Coast, Newcastle, Canberra and Orange. In 2018, it <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/projects/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw">commissioned</a> an independent report on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/fast-rail-given-green-light-by-berejiklian-without-commonwealth/10580658">fast rail options for NSW</a> by British fast rail expert <a href="https://static.nsw.gov.au/Fast-rail/1543351718/Expert-advice-on-fast-rail.pdf">Andrew McNaughton</a>. The completed report <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/faster-journeys-on-sydney-canberra-trains-among-priorities-20200225-p5444m.html">is yet to be released</a>. </p>
<p>The question now is should the Western Harbour Tunnel be abandoned or, at the very least, deferred until major rail projects have been completed.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A reference to Western Highway Tunnel (which is of course the Western Harbour Tunnel) has been corrected in the last paragraph.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and made a submission to the WHT proposal. He is affiliated, inter alia, Action for Public Transport (NSW) along with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.
</span></em></p>Once again, the state looks intent on pressing ahead with a huge road project without releasing a business case. Among the many concerns is the failure to look at lower-emission alternatives.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1043652018-10-05T11:15:40Z2018-10-05T11:15:40ZIncreasing the speed limit won’t get traffic moving faster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239475/original/file-20181005-72113-196ar9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/en/traffic-highway-lights-night-road-332857/">Pixabay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK should raise its motorway speed limit for cars and vans to 80mph as a way of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/30/increase-motorway-speed-limit-80mph-drive-britains-productivity/">increasing national productivity</a>, a government minister recently suggested. It’s a perennial political idea that has already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/2013/jun/22/speed-limit-uk-motorway-80">been proposed and then ruled out</a> by the government at least once in the past decade. Despite claims that the current 70mph limit is embedded in the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/07/80mph-motorway-speed-limit-possible-public-opinion-prevents/">national psyche</a>, 48% of car drivers choose <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/743878/vehicle-speed-compliance-statistics-2017.pdf">not to comply with it</a>.</p>
<p>But, aside from the question of whether being able to get to meetings faster would really impact national productivity, would raising the motorway speed limit even make that much of a different to journey times?</p>
<p>The main problem with this idea is that <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/684314/travel-time-measures-on-srn-and-local-a-roads-jan-to-dec-2017.pdf">persistent congestion</a> often prevents people from travelling at the existing speed limit. A former chief executive of the Highways Agency suggested we should even expect peak time motorway speeds <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/10825851/Motorway-speeds-Get-used-to-driving-at-40mph-says-top-highways-official.html">as low as 40mph</a> on some routes. Another problem is phantom traffic jams, which usually occur when drivers are travelling too fast in comparison to the traffic around them. If one driver rapidly brakes, the driver behind them will have to do the same and so on until a whole line of traffic is forced to stop. </p>
<p>The way the UK has primarily tried to tackle the issue of congestion in recent years is not by building more roads but by introducing so-called <a href="https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/driving-advice/smart-motorways/">smart motorways</a>. These use electronic signs to change the speed limit depending on the flow of traffic. Ironically, by keeping drivers travelling slower, smart motorways can help prevent phantom traffic jams and ensure <a href="https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/413955/">everyone gets to their destination faster</a>. </p>
<p>This technology can also be used to allow even higher speeds when there are fewer cars on a road. In the Netherlands, smart motorways have been introduced in combination with an <a href="https://www.government.nl/topics/mobility-public-transport-and-road-safety/mobility/maximum-speed">increase in the motorway speed limit</a> from 120km/h (75mph) to 130km/h (81mph). But drivers travelling during peak times tend not to benefit from the higher limit because congestion causes the smart motorway to reduce the speeds, so any potential productivity boost is limited.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239479/original/file-20181005-72097-c6kjzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smart motorways can reduce the speed limit to manage congestion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/5251763">Bill Boaden</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One argument for increasing the speed limit is that it – and most roads – were designed for a different generation of vehicles. Every road has a design speed, defined as the rate at which 85% of drivers choose to travel in free flow conditions. Design speeds in current <a href="http://www.standardsforhighways.co.uk/ha/standards/dmrb/vol6/section1/td993.pdf">UK standards</a> range from 50km/h (31mph) to 120km/h (75mph) depending on the type of road. A road’s design speed isn’t necessarily the same thing as the legal speed limit.</p>
<p>The road is then built to ensure that it can be used safely at this design speed. This includes ensuring curves aren’t so sharp that vehicles slide off the road, and that drivers can see far enough ahead to stop safely in an emergency. This means any vehicles that go faster than the design speed are at a higher risk of collision.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/motorways-if-80mph-is-a-safe-speed-why-isnt-it-made-legal-rmlztdk37q2">Many argue</a> that these design parameters are based on historical designs and that modern vehicles have more effective brakes and handling. If this is true, it would mean existing road design standards are conservative and the risks of driving faster than the design speed have been reduced. A wide-ranging <a href="https://www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/article/detail/3411">review of the standards</a>, including a look at changes to vehicle design, is to be completed by 2020 and may lead to updates in the way roads are built.</p>
<p>But even if today’s vehicles can safely drive faster than our roads’ design speed, <a href="https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/advice-services/road-safety/road-crashes-overview.pdf">95% of all road crashes have human error as a factor</a>. Most of us are simply not the good drivers we think we are. The recent launch of a national campaign highlighting the failure of drivers on England’s roads to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45545525">keep a safe distance</a> illustrates this point only too well. Higher speeds gives us less time to respond and react to a critical situation. </p>
<p>As such, it’s perhaps unsurprising that a <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/speed-crash-risk">recent OECD study</a> across ten countries has found that increasing road speed, including on motorways, consistently leads to a disproportionate increase in the number and severity of crashes. And more crashes leads to more congestion and longer journey times.</p>
<h2>Best case scenario</h2>
<p>But putting all this aside and assuming you were able to continuously drive safely on the motorway at the speed limit, how much time would a 10mph increase typically save you? Despite carrying large volumes of traffic in a relatively safe manner when compared with other routes, motorways comprise just a small proportion of the UK road network. The start and end of any trip tend to be on local roads in urban areas, inevitably forming the slowest part of any journey, and this would not benefit from the change in the speed limit.</p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/448276/strategic-road-network-statistics.pdf">Government statistics</a> show that 88% of trips on motorways are less than 50 miles in length. Assuming it were possible to drive continuously at 80mph instead of 70mph, the time saving on such a journey would be only five minutes at the very most.</p>
<p>So all things considered, on a good day, increasing the motorway speed limit would save the majority of motorists just enough time to make a cup of tea. Whether drinking tea will boost national productivity is a matter for an entirely separate debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Llewellyn has received funding from Transport Scotland in previous research work. He is affiliated with the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation.</span></em></p>UK government minister Liz Truss says upping the motorway speed limit will increase productivity. Let’s look at the facts.Richard Llewellyn, Lecturer in Transportation Engineering, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1035682018-09-21T12:17:28Z2018-09-21T12:17:28ZSolar panels replaced tarmac on a road – here are the results<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237460/original/file-20180921-129856-jz5iyq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A road to nowhere?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.wattwaybycolas.com/en/">Robert B.D. Brice/Wattway</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four years ago a viral campaign wooed the world with a promise of fighting climate change and jump-starting the economy by replacing tarmac on the world’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-freakin-roadways-why-the-future-of-this-technology-may-not-be-so-bright-51304">roads with solar panels</a>. The bold idea has undergone some road testing since then. The first results from preliminary studies have recently come out, and they’re a bit underwhelming.</p>
<p>A solar panel lying under a road is at a number of disadvantages. As it’s not at the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=18871">optimum tilt angle</a>, it’s going to produce less power and it’s going to be more <a href="https://www.solarguide.co.uk/solar-pv-and-shading#/">prone to shading</a>, which is a problem as shade over just 5% of the surface of a panel can <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245160256_A_new_topology_to_mitigate_the_effect_of_shading_for_small_photovoltaic_installations_in_rural_sub-Saharan_Africa">reduce power generation by 50%</a>.</p>
<p>The panels are also likely to be covered by dirt and dust, and would need far thicker glass than conventional panels to withstand the weight of traffic, which will further limit the light they absorb. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-freakin-roadways-why-the-future-of-this-technology-may-not-be-so-bright-51304">Solar freakin' roadways? Why the future of this technology may not be so bright</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Unable to benefit from air circulation, its inevitable these panels will heat up more than a rooftop solar panel too. For every 1°C over optimum temperature you <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890409000880?via%3Dihub">lose 0.5% of energy efficiency</a>. </p>
<p>As a result a significant drop in performance for a solar road, compared to rooftop solar panels, has to be expected. The question is by how much and what is the economic cost?</p>
<h2>The road test results are in</h2>
<p><a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/12/worlds-first-solar-road-opens-in-france/">One of the first solar roads</a> to be installed is in Tourouvre-au-Perche, France. This has a maximum power output of 420 kW, covers 2,800 m² and cost €5m to install. This implies a cost of €11,905 (£10,624) per installed kW. </p>
<p>While the road is supposed to generate <a href="https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/14010/Solar-Roadways-Lets-Do-the-Math.aspx%20of%20electricity">800 kilowatt hours per day</a> (kWh/day), some recently released data indicates a <a href="https://www.techniques-ingenieur.fr/actualite/articles/route-solaire-normande-electricite-51088/">yield closer to 409 kWh/day</a>, or 150,000 kWh/yr. For an idea of how much this is, the average UK home uses around <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/ofgem-publications/76160/13537-elecgenfactsfspdf">10 kWh/day</a>. The road’s capacity factor – which measures the efficiency of the technology by dividing its average power output by its potential maximum power output – is just 4%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237462/original/file-20180921-129865-1frld43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The solar road is unveiled in Tourouvre au Perche.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.epa.eu/environment-photos/alternative-energy-photos/launch-of-the-first-world-s-solar-road-in-france-photos-53182703">Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2015/12/02/frances-300-mw-cestas-solar-plant-inaugurated_100022247/">the Cestas solar plant near Bordeaux</a>, which features rows of solar panels carefully angled towards the sun, has a maximum power output of 300,000 kW and a capacity factor of 14%. And at a cost of €360m (£321m), or €1,200 (£1,070) per installed kW, one-tenth the cost of our solar roadway, <a href="https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/europes_largest_solar_park_squeezing_out_maximum_energy_from_the_minimum_la">it generates three times more power</a>. </p>
<p>In America, a company called <a href="http://www.solarroadways.com/">Solar Roadways</a> has developed a smart highway with solar panels, including sensors and LED lights to display traffic warnings about any upcoming hazards, such as a deer. It also has heating pads to melt snow in winter. </p>
<p>Several of their <a href="http://solarroadways.com/Home/Specifics">SR3 panels</a> have been <a href="https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/pv/public_systems/V3vh1173801/overview">installed in a small section of pavement</a> in Sandypoint, Idaho. This is 13.9 m² in area, with an installed capacity of 1.529 KW. The <a href="http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/apr/18/sandpoint-wins-grant-to-put-in-solar-roadways-demo/">installation cost is given as $48,734</a> (about £37,482), which implies a cost per installed kW of €27,500 (£24,542), more than 20 times higher than the Cestas powerplant.</p>
<p>Solar Roadway’s own estimates are that the <a href="http://solarroadways.com/Research/Research/">LED lights would consume 106 MWh</a> per lane mile, with the panels generating 415 MWh – so more than 25% of the useful power is consumed by the LEDs. This would reduce performance even further. The heating plates are also quoted as drawing 2.28 MW per lane mile, so running them for just six days would cancel out any net gain from the solar panels.</p>
<p>And this is before we look at the actual data from the Sandypoint installation, which <a href="http://solarroadways.com/Research/Research/">generated 52.397 kWh in 6 months</a>, or 104.8 kWh over a year. From this we can estimate a capacity factor of just 0.782%, which is 20 times less efficient than the Cestas power plant. </p>
<p>That said, it should be pointed out that this panel is in a town square. If there is one thing we can conclude, it’s that a section of pavement surrounded by buildings in a snowy northern town is not the best place to locate a solar installation. However, perhaps there’s a bigger point – solar roads on city streets are just not a great idea.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237461/original/file-20180921-129865-1nu9hmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The driveway prototype which inspired Solar Roadways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Roadway_Parking_Lot_Prototype.jpg">Dan Walden/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<h2>Running out of road</h2>
<p>Roads don’t actually represent as large an area as we assume. The UK department of transport gives a breakdown of the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/722478/road-lengths-in-great-britain-2017.pdf">length of the UK’s different road types</a>. </p>
<p>Assuming we can clad these in solar panels, four lanes of every motorway, two lanes on the A & B roads and half a lane for C & U roads (a lot are single track roads and just won’t be suitable) we come up with a surface area of 2 billion m². </p>
<p>Which sounds like a lot, until you realise that buildings in the UK’s urban areas <a href="https://eip.ceh.ac.uk/lcm">occupy an area of 17.6 billion m²</a>. So just covering a fraction of the UK’s rooftops with solar panels would immediately yield more power than putting them on roads. That’s quite apart from the benefits that a more elevated position would yield for greater power generation. </p>
<p>All of this suggests that only a small fraction of the road network would actually be suitable. And, given the relatively small size of the road network, solar roads could only ever become a niche source of power and never the shortcut to our future energy supply.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan Ryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Solar roadways have been promoted as a way to fight climate change, put people to work and make driving safer. But on closer inspection the reality is less than impressive.Dylan Ryan, Lecturer in Mechanical & Energy Engineering, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1012462018-08-28T20:20:54Z2018-08-28T20:20:54ZWe hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here’s how politicians get it right<p>Australian governments regularly spend billions of dollars cancelling infrastructure projects, or dealing with delays and legal challenges. The NSW Berejiklian government, for instance, is mired in legal battles around Sydney’s light rail project – with the Spanish company building the rail line <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/spanish-builder-claims-state-failed-to-reveal-full-facts-on-light-rail-20180413-p4z9et.html?clicksource=inartcilelink">suing the government</a> for A$1.2 billion for costs and damages.</p>
<p>Other examples include the cancellations of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-28/opposition-reveals-new-plans-for-controversial-east-west-link/9918306">A$1.1 billion</a> East-West link in Melbourne and Perth’s <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/state-overturns-approvals-quashes-rumours-of-roe-8-by-stealth-20180606-p4zjtc.html">A$450 million Roe 8</a> project. </p>
<p>Research shows transport infrastructure is costly because of its size, complexity, and the <a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1409/1409.0003.pdf">misrepresentation of project benefits</a>, resulting in cost overruns. But transport projects are also costly because they are controversial. Governments and project proponents can spend significant amounts of money to manage the risk of project cancellation, delays and legal challenges.</p>
<h2>Why the constant controversy?</h2>
<p>Transport will be a key policy battleground area in the upcoming Victorian election. Just this week, the Andrews’ government announced a A$50 billion <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/state-government-announces-massive-suburban-rail-loop-for-melbourne-20180828-p5005r.html">underground suburban rail loop</a>, which will link every major rail line in Melbourne and the new airport rail. </p>
<p>The announcement is politically motivated rather than being grounded in a publicly engaged strategic planning process attached to a clear evidence-base.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">East-West Link shows miserable failure of planning process</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Victoria is not alone in such political infrastructure planning. The NSW government is currently embarking on the largest transport infrastructure project in the country’s history, with the 33km <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/about">WestConnex</a>. The project continues to attract opposition from some parts of the community and from the <a href="http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/vision/changing-urban-precincts/westconnex">City of Sydney</a>. </p>
<p>WestConnex is also currently subject to a <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2497#tab-timeline">parliamentary inquiry</a> into its impacts, including the adequacy of the business case for the project and the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2497/Terms%20of%20reference%20-%20WestConnex%20inquiry.pdf">compulsory acquisition of property</a>. The inquiry comes following pressure from community groups and <a href="https://www.mehreenfaruqi.org.au/greens-secure-westconnex-inquiry/">some members of the state’s Greens</a>.</p>
<p>Large-scale transport infrastructure will always attract attention because it involves the distribution of a finite resource in complex regions pressed with significant infrastructure needs. But we need to consider why transport infrastructure is almost always so controversial, and how politicians can ensure they have the public’s trust when making announcements for all transport projects. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">Why fewer drivers are likely to use WestConnex than predicted</a>
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<h2>1. History</h2>
<p>Australia has a history of anti-road activism that centred on the notion <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/general-books/current-affairs-politics/Car-wars-Graeme-Davison-9781741142075">cities are for people</a> not cars, as large motorways <a href="http://www.umass.edu/umpress/title/street-fight">divide communities</a> and promote car dependency. In the 1960s and 70s, large urban motorways were set to pave over suburbs as part of a wider urban regeneration agenda, which set the anti-road agenda in motion.</p>
<p>When the East-West Link was proposed again in 2012, many of the same activists from the 1970s returned to the scene. One such activist, Tony Murphy, would lead a high-profile <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/east-west-link-details-may-come-out-in-court-20140519-38k82.html">legal challenge</a> to the project in 2014.</p>
<p>Inner-city motorways - such as the East West Link and Stage 3 of the WestConnex project – are underpinned by this historic opposition. And it’s strengthened by the privatisation of roads and the introduction of toll roads. Under these conditions concerns will continue to be put forward about who actually gains to benefit from such projects – private companies, the government or the people?</p>
<h2>2. Infrastructural symbolism</h2>
<p>Inner-city motorways crystallise competing visions for the Australian city. Should we be investing in roads or rail, or both? How do we prioritise delivery? Where should we be investing? How will we pay for these investments? And do the benefits - and we need to be clear about how we <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">define these</a> - outweigh the costs of construction, the loss of natural assets and urban displacement?</p>
<p>The act of investing in one form of infrastructure over another becomes a symbol of what we value. Road based infrastructure planning is controversial because it’s often seen to value cars over non-road based alternatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233833/original/file-20180828-75984-1xu64cb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We often see roads as controversial as they become a symbol of our value of cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The East-West Link, West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and WestConnex projects are symbols of past poor investment in integrated land use and transport planning. They are also a symbol of little clarity and coherency about what it is we are aspiring to, and how these expensive projects will help us get there.</p>
<h2>3. Trust in evidence</h2>
<p>There are concerns projects are being <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/events/the-right-infrastructure-at-the-right-price/">announced</a> before they are properly costed. And this has been further complicated by the introduction of public and private partnerships and more recently the use of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals">market-led proposal schemes</a> (where a private firm makes an infrastructure proposal to goverment), which calls into question the role evidence and the business case plays in decisions about transport infrastructure. </p>
<p>These concerns are only exacerbated when public access to this data is difficult to obtain. And they will only intensify unless bodies such as the <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/roads/transurban-to-release-more-tollroad-data-to-try-and-win-over-accc-on-westconnex-20180809-h13qbz">ACCC demand</a> data accessibility, including from tolling operators and sharing platforms.</p>
<p>In Toronto, project business cases are written before investment announcements are made. The <a href="http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/benefitscases/benefits_case_analyses.aspx">business cases</a> are then used in wider discussions about what kinds of infrastructures the region should invest in. While every city and region has its challenges, the controversy in Australian cities has become as much about the role of evidence, including its accessibility and transparency, as it is about the contents of those documents. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
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<h2>What politicians should do</h2>
<p>As Australian cities continue to embark on ambitious infrastructure programs - both roads and public transport - governments must pause to ask themselves who these projects are really being built for. To abate future controversy, governments must:</p>
<ul>
<li>develop plans for public debate and engagement, which will help provide a strategic case for projects when they are announced</li>
<li>deliver business cases before projects are announced, not after. This must include a clear evidence-base for land use, affordable housing, employment and integrated transport</li>
<li>plan transport with a regional outlook, but also be mindful of stories and histories of the places and neighbourhoods that might be affected.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ultimately, residents must be engaged in discussions about urban scenarios and project alternatives. Infrastructure Australia <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/news-media/media-releases/2018/2018_07_24.aspx">recently released</a> a set of guidelines for big projects. These guidelines are important.</p>
<p>We can also look to Infrastructure Victoria. They included a citizen jury method in the development of their 30-year strategy, which perhaps can be expanded into a larger planning exercise that ties the visions with short-term solutions – such as better quality bus integration. These can then be linked with the more ambitions ideas such as a suburban rail loop as announced this week.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-calls-on-jury-of-its-citizens-to-deliberate-on-melbournes-future-59620">City calls on jury of its citizens to deliberate on Melbourne's future</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>We need to consider why transport infrastructure is so controversial, and how politicians can ensure they have the public’s trust when making announcements for all transport projects.Crystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/944892018-04-18T20:24:22Z2018-04-18T20:24:22ZA closer look at business cases raises questions about ‘priority’ national infrastructure projects<p>Infrastructure Australia’s latest infrastructure <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/infrastructure-priority-list.aspx">priority list</a> has been criticised for being “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hard-to-take-seriously-andrews-slams-sydney-centric-projects-list-20180327-p4z6eu.html">too Sydney-centric</a>” and for giving Melbourne’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/east-west-link-project">East West Link, cancelled in 2014</a>, “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/east-west-link-remains-a-high-priority-says-infrastructure-umpire-20160216-gmv9h6.html">high priority</a>” status. The <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/traffic/easing-peak-hour-gridlock-to-of-to-do-list-ng-b88785478z">cancelled Roe 8</a> project in Perth was removed from the list. </p>
<p>So how does a project get onto Infrastructure Australia’s list? This requires submission of a full business case, which then needs to be “<a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/IFA_Infrastructure_Australia_Assessment_Framework_Refresh_v26_lowres.pdf">positively assessed</a>” to be given priority status.</p>
<p>But our research, yet to be published, has found these business cases leave out highly significant costs. This article looks at three prominent projects – the <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/">WestConnex</a> and East West Link motorways in Sydney and Melbourne respectively, and <a href="https://www.crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/">Cross River Rail</a> in Brisbane – to illustrate how business cases submitted to Infrastructure Australia do not follow its requirements in key respects. This casts serious doubt on the business cases used to justify major motorway projects, as well as on how priority projects are selected.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/foi-reform-needed-in-victoria-amid-east-west-link-fallout-35666">FOI reform needed in Victoria amid East West Link fallout</a></em> </p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-8-fails-the-tests-of-responsible-21st-century-infrastructure-planning-71810">Roe 8 fails the tests of responsible 21st-century infrastructure planning</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>What do business cases assess?</h2>
<p>Ensuring business cases are completed before investment decisions are finalised is critical to “good planning”. Part of Infrastructure Australia’s remit is to head off <a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">concerns</a> that projects are committed to before business cases are fully evaluated. This can help <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/getting-infrastructure-right-one-project-at-a-time/">minimise “optimism bias” and ensure investments deliver community benefit</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>But we must also examine what the business case is actually showing us. The main part of each business case is the cost-benefit analysis. This compares the money value of project benefits and project costs. Economically viable projects should have a benefit-to-cost ratio above 1:1.</p>
<p>Infrastructure Australia requires project business cases to consider non-monetised benefits and costs, including community impacts. These benefits and costs are required to be quantified in some other way, or at least described. The basis used to estimate “external costs” must also be provided.</p>
<p>The cost-benefit methodology requires any significant positive or negative impacts on third parties – <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality">externalities</a> – to be included. Examples include air quality, carbon emissions, noise, biodiversity and climate adaptation. </p>
<p>Social impacts to be covered include equity or the distribution of benefits (which Infrastructure Australia says need to be identified since cost-benefit analysis does not explicitly take these into account), and affected local communities and other individuals/groups. The non-monetised benefit and cost categories listed as relevant are: social impacts, cultural impacts, visual amenity/landscape, biodiversity and heritage impacts.</p>
<p>In support of monetary estimates, proponents must “describe and provide supporting material that demonstrates how land use, population and employment projections are modelled”. </p>
<p>The guidelines stress that the supporting conditions for expected land use impacts will be in place – for instance, necessary infrastructure investment where densification is assumed. Factors that can hinder the realisation of such benefits (such as local opposition to increasing density) must also be included. </p>
<p>This process would seem to produce a rational prioritisation of national infrastructure projects. The problem is that the business cases submitted to Infrastructure Australia do not follow its requirements. </p>
<h2>High-priority projects with problematic business cases</h2>
<p>To illustrate this, we analysed the business cases of three projects designated as “high priority” for Commonwealth funding: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>East West Link, to which the Commonwealth allocated A$1.5 billion before the new Victorian government cancelled the project</p></li>
<li><p>WestConnex, which has been allocated A$3.5 billion</p></li>
<li><p>Cross River Rail, which is yet to receive funding.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>A key problem in these business cases is that significant project cost items have not been monetised. These include costs relating to environmental effects such as noise and visual amenity and to other impacts on businesses, households and property values. </p>
<p>For example, none of the three cases includes a valuation of the costs of lost business and disruption to household travel and amenity during construction. (This is a big issue with Sydney’s southeast light rail project.) </p>
<p>There is also no costing of the loss of property values along motorways, especially around exhaust emission vents. The East West Link and Cross River Rail business cases make some allowance for this by including the value of general changes in amenity from noise, urban landscape and visual amenity. None of these are costed in the WestConnex case.</p>
<p>Another significant omission relates to the costing of land use impacts. The WestConnex and East West Link business cases both forecast more, and longer, road trips across the network as a result of the projects. </p>
<p>The WestConnex scheme will increase vehicle kilometres by 600,000 per day and make outer suburbs more accessible relative to the inner city. The potential extra costs from greater sprawl are high, <a href="http://www.thecie.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CIE-Final-report_NSW-Planning_-Alternative-growth-paths-for-Sydney_10-December-2010.pdf">estimated at A$4.99 billion</a> for Sydney over 25 years from 2011 if greenfield housing was 50% of new dwellings rather than 30%. </p>
<p>The opposite is the case for Cross River Rail. Increased higher-density development around rail stations would produce infrastructure savings, but the business case does not give these a value.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the valuation of changes in transport mode resulting from each project is inconsistent. </p>
<p>The Cross River Rail business case includes savings resulting from motorists switching from road to rail after the line is built. </p>
<p>The WestConnex project will have the reverse effect, with 45,000 public transport trips per day being switched to the motorway. But the business case does not put a value on the costs of this. These include bus and train revenue losses, or reduced service frequency and increased waiting time to reduce losses.</p>
<h2>Debatable ‘wider economic benefits’</h2>
<p>The most contentious business case component is wider economic benefits. These are productivity improvements arising from increased central city job density as a result of the projects improving access. </p>
<p>These benefits needed to be included to lift the East West Link benefit-cost ratio above one. But this is only achieved through sleight of hand – public transport improvements into central Melbourne are included as part of the full project cost. As the public transport component of the business case had low costs compared to its benefits, including these wider economic benefits was enough to push the overall ratio above 1. </p>
<p>Similar benefits are part of the WestConnex cost-benefit analysis. However, these benefits are to be achieved from extra car trips to the centre. This takes no account of the disincentives of road congestion and lack of parking. </p>
<p>Current central Sydney <a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/#/view/EPI/2012/628/part7/div1/cl7.6">planning controls</a> allow a maximum of one new parking space per 75 square metres of floor area for not-so-tall offices - or one space for about five new workers - and even fewer spaces relative to floor area for higher buildings. This means most increased job density will not come from people driving to work. </p>
<p>By contrast, the wider economic benefits of the Cross River Rail resulting from increased job density in central Brisbane are not valued for inclusion in the cost-benefit analysis.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brisbanes-cross-river-rail-will-feed-the-centre-at-the-expense-of-people-in-the-suburbs-79418">Brisbane's Cross River Rail will feed the centre at the expense of people in the suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rethinking the business case</h2>
<p>Our work points to several real concerns:</p>
<ul>
<li>a lack of consistency in what is included in business cases</li>
<li>questions about how cases can be reasonably compared across projects</li>
<li>discretionary inclusion or exclusion of critical items that bias results in favour of projects.</li>
</ul>
<p>We need more holistic and integrated analysis of projects. This will take into account not only the “nation-building” aspects – the jobs and growth projects might inspire – but also the disrupting and displacing effects they produce across transport modes, land uses and people’s experiences of the city.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glen Searle receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Analysis of the business cases for three of the biggest projects deemed “high priority” by Infrastructure Australia raises questions about the process.Glen Searle, Honorary Associate Professor in Planning, University of Queensland and, University of SydneyCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/877012017-11-20T15:35:58Z2017-11-20T15:35:58ZDo speed cameras really save lives?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195211/original/file-20171117-7545-kb3n2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gary Perkin/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Speed cameras have been the focus of motorists’ anger and frustration for years, although we are told repeatedly that they are an effective means of reducing death and injury on the roads. But is this really the case?</p>
<p>Whether speed cameras actually do save lives seems an easy assertion to test: measure the numbers of casualties at a site over a period, say two years; introduce a speed camera; re-measure the number of casualties over an equal period, and any reduction is due to the camera. But it’s not really that simple. Many other factors are at play that might make cameras appear to be more effective than they really are. And these factors are often ignored when evaluating the performance of speed cameras at improving road safety.</p>
<p>Since around 2000, there has been a boom in the use of speed cameras in the UK. Around <a href="http://www.racfoundation.org/assets/rac_foundation/content/downloadables/Automated_Road_Traffic_Enforcement_Dr_Adam_Snow_October_2017.pdf">800,000 drivers</a> are caught speeding by cameras each year. With the minimum penalty for speeding including a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/speeding-penalties">£100 fine</a>, cameras have often attracted criticism as just a money-making scheme rather than an effective way to prevent collisions and prevent death and injury, as claimed by road safety organisations. One such <a href="http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0221.pdf">recent estimate</a> suggested that adding around 1,000 additional cameras in the UK could reduce collisions by 1,130, serious injuries by 330 and save 190 lives annually, saving around £21m. </p>
<p>So who is right? Do speed cameras actually save lives?</p>
<h2>The statistics</h2>
<p>Cameras are normally installed following a period of unusually high numbers of collisions at a particular site. However, these high numbers may not necessarily be an indication that the site has become more dangerous and therefore in need of treatment, but just due to random variation (blips) in when and where crashes occur. In road safety data, there is a general tendency for collision incidents at a site to reduce anyway following a short-term rise in their number, without any treatment (such as a speed camera) being applied. In statistics, this is known as <a href="http://www.safespeed.org.uk/rttm.html">regression-to-the-mean</a> (or RTM).</p>
<p>We also know that the long-term trend in collisions has generally been downward due to factors such as improved vehicle safety and better driver <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/648081/rrcgb2016-01.pdf">education</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195438/original/file-20171120-18581-lrn3bm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PongMoji / Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So if we observe a reduction in casualties at a site following the installation of a camera, we need to ask how much of this reduction would have happened anyway (the RTM effect)? How much is due to general trends in road safety? And how much can we actually attribute to the camera itself?</p>
<p>The effects of RTM and trend can vary between camera sites. <a href="http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/2/6/e001304.short">Evidence</a> from some camera sites in the UK suggests that these effects can account for all the observed reduction – indicating that the camera has had no impact at the site at all. So conventional approaches to assessing the impact of cameras on collisions may be overoptimistic. This has clear and obvious implications when considering the cameras’ value-for-money and whether the investment could have achieved a better return elsewhere.</p>
<h2>Even more complex</h2>
<p>But this doesn’t mean that there aren’t potential road safety benefits from using cameras. Cameras could certainly have a significant impact in terms of preventing medical treatment costs as a result of road traffic collisions, but we need to apply more rigorous statistical approaches for evaluating the data to avoid bias.</p>
<p>Also, we cannot ignore the fact that the presence of speed cameras can remind drivers of the importance of speed limits and the penalties for being caught speeding, and therefore cameras could be having a more general and beneficial impact on driving elsewhere other than just at camera sites. However, accurately capturing this positive effect from the data is far from straightforward.</p>
<p>And unfortunately, the situation is further complicated by the presence of cameras actually causing some motorists to drive erratically when approaching, for example, by braking heavily, which itself can cause collisions to occur. To make matters worse, half of the UK’s fixed speed cameras <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/04/only-half-of-britains-fixed-speed-camera-are-active">may not even be turned on</a>. So the situation is far from simple.</p>
<p>Methods to accurately account for RTM and trend often require knowledge of advanced statistics which may not always be available within a road safety team, and so it is likely that these confounding factors are not being considered consistently across the country. Software is becoming increasingly available for evaluating site-based road safety interventions but this is not yet commonplace. </p>
<p>More recent work also points towards a more proactive, rather than reactive, approach to identifying sites that may have a road safety problem. This would enable future investment decisions to be guided by methodology based on the predicted number of collisions at sites across a road network rather than applying a treatment reactively after a threshold number of people have been <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457516304341">killed or seriously injured</a>.</p>
<p>So, do speed cameras save lives? The answer is almost certainly yes, but probably not always to the extent that people are led to believe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Thorpe receives funding from the Northumbria Safer Roads Initiative.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Fawcett receives funding from the Northumbria Safer Roads Initiative.</span></em></p>Conventional approaches to assessing the impact of cameras on collisions may be overoptimistic.Neil Thorpe, Lecturer in Transport Studies, Newcastle UniversityLee Fawcett, Lecturer in Statistics, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561662016-03-15T17:09:37Z2016-03-15T17:09:37ZBig data shows how ‘selfless’ driving could ease traffic congestion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115126/original/image-20160315-9272-1ws4xhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/maldeno/7975578661/sizes/l">Roberto Maldeno</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s easy to see why motor cars are such a <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20140404170122/http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3/countries">popular form of transport</a>: they’re private, comfortable and convenient. But the popularity of cars can also be one of their biggest drawbacks. When there are too many of them and not enough road space, streets become congested and as a result, <a href="http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/35359.wss">journey times become unpredictable</a>, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/05/the-truth-about-londons-air-pollution">air pollution increases</a> and we lose out on some of the <a href="https://lsecities.net/media/objects/articles/the-costs-and-benefits-of-high-density-urban-living/en-gb/">economic benefits of city living</a>. </p>
<p>Now, <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160315/ncomms10793/full/ncomms10793.html">a new study</a> suggests that the personal benefits we get from having a car could be improved by collective thinking. Researchers at MIT and Birmingham University used big data from five cities – Rio de Janeiro, Boston, San Francisco, Lisbon and Porto – to show how strategic route changes by a relatively small number of motorists could reduce the time lost to congestion by as much as 30%. </p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>The authors crunched massive amounts of mobile phone data to identify travel patterns during peak morning commuting times in each of these cities. They confirmed that the time lost due to congestion in each city reflects a high demand for road travel, relative to the supply of road infrastructure. They found that the density and distribution of the population played a role in congestion levels, too. No surprises here. </p>
<p>But by modelling this data, the authors were also able to measure the potential benefits of optimising the system as a whole. This is where it gets interesting. The researchers calculated the detrimental effects of “selfish routing” – where individuals set out to minimise their own travel time – by comparing this approach with the travel times resulting from a “socially optimal” solution. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115161/original/image-20160315-9262-1hz3zm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The choice is yours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They modelled a scenario where drivers were equipped with an app which gave them the option to take a longer route for the good of all. The authors found that overall, it only took a relatively small number of motorists to choose longer travel times, to create significant benefits for others. By giving drivers the option to take a socially optimal approach, rather than a “selfish” one, the total time lost to congestion could be reduced by between 15% and 30%. </p>
<p>One of the main problems with congestion is that it makes it difficult to accurately anticipate journey times. By giving drivers the option to pick their route with a predicted journey time, drivers who need to be at their destination at a particular time will know when to set out while drivers who are more flexible can avoid the worst congestion. It’s a “win-win” situation. </p>
<h2>A social solution?</h2>
<p>Even so, the actual time savings for individual motorists were found to be marginal – a few minutes at most. The authors of the study said that “in the best case scenario, time savings would be imperceptible for the majority of the drivers”. Rather, the optimised routing would help cities to function better as a whole. </p>
<p>This offers a crucial insight for urban leaders looking to grow their city’s wealth and population. The research demonstrates that there’s limited scope for road-based solutions to the issues arising from urban congestion. Routine commutes to and from work make it difficult for drivers to be flexible, even if there were some incentive to take a longer, more socially beneficial route. The authors’ proposal may work better on the road networks between cities, where trips are longer and fewer drivers are inflexible when it comes to timing. </p>
<p>Ultimately, city authorities should recognise that offering alternative modes of transport will do a lot more to reduce congestion than giving motorists the option to be socially responsible drivers. For instance, rail in its various forms provides speedy and reliable travel for daily commuters, as well as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-cities-beyond-peak-car">tackling all the economic and environmental issues</a> caused by congestion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Would you take a longer route to work for the good of all?David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/509122015-12-01T19:11:59Z2015-12-01T19:11:59ZGoing down the same old road: driverless cars aren’t a fix for our transport woes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102766/original/image-20151123-18257-146vclu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The freeway presents a unique problem for the advance of autonomous vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/squeaks2569/8114408216/in/photolist-dn3sRW-G7Fmn-v19niJ-4mccvc-88ED7m-dn3qjx-7AQMTZ-phZDj-k4cPi-9ty6dz-anYe6i-epAUCz-4STFMz-7qvEZo-983Nug-95S8jK-dFxny-FxFC8-kadXx-7XvVQv-dsjzyW-49cFDJ-vhkw-cg96kE-sBBWyQ-sBKgz2-t9PPRP-4m6kf6-6iAAt-dFxiK-3J6wx-4Pibdt-76wC87-5tRbc7-7SR1Se-4yV4xe-vi4dqn-uApPZ-5kgic-dcozhK-dcoz3H-95VamG-8TG6sd-7bb3ar-57izfR-phu8PN-e2LSXV-efvnKe-ebU5F7-kh53Rk">Alan stark/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia is <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-we-are-on-the-road-to-driverless-cars-50079">gearing up</a> for self-driving cars, or autonomous vehicles, and doesn’t want to be left behind in this so-called disruptive innovation. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles are being <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-could-be-the-answer-to-congested-roads-33438">spruiked</a> as the solution to peak hour congestion in terms of their economic benefits along with a lesser value of reduced road accidents. The attraction is that they will save time and human lives. </p>
<p>But will they be significant improvements or just facilitate our ongoing car dependence that is an even bigger economic problem?</p>
<h2>Saving time?</h2>
<p>A few numbers can help put autonomous vehicles in perspective. In the table below you can see the number of people who can be carried down a lane of traffic. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/G6ggK/1/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Assuming autonomous vehicles were one metre apart and travelling at 100 kilometres per hour (an aim that has been <a href="https://www.ri.cmu.edu/pub_files/pub2/reece_douglas_1991_2/reece_douglas_1991_2.pdf">stated</a> as the ultimate hope) this would mean around 25,000 people per hour could be taken down a freeway lane. While impressive, this movement capacity is only half that of a train. </p>
<p>But getting to this capacity means 100% of vehicles are under control of a guidance system, with none under independent control. As soon as one car does this, the whole system would slow down considerably, as is seen on freeways now. </p>
<p>To avoid this would require removing the ability of people to take over their vehicles and imposing a total ban on driver freedom. Otherwise, the freeway would become not much better than at present, where at peak times cars crawl along with around two-metre gaps between cars, or at higher speeds with larger space between vehicles. This is not saving much time. While individual autonomous cars may take up less space, cars overall are less spatially efficient than public transport, especially trains. </p>
<p>The guidance system needed to manage autonomous cars on a freeway could also apply to public transport. Buses and trains could use the same technology to upgrade their signalling systems and go much faster and closer together than anything yet seen in our cities. Buses crawling down a corridor could be simply transformed into a Bus Rapid Transit system with one-metre spacing in a long convoy very similar to a train. </p>
<p>Train signalling could be transformed and this could lead to capacities of around 100,000 people per hour being taken down a rail line. One train line would thus be able to carry 50 times what a present freeway lane carries. It would mean that Australian cities could manage significantly higher numbers of commuters on existing train lines. This would be massive savings in time and costs compared to whole new train lines being built down crowded rail corridors. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles also need to slow down to enter freeway exits. These would need to be lengthened to avoid pile-ups and slow traffic flow, however the substantial land required would be politically and financially difficult to find. Without such extensive off-ramps freeways will be as slow as they are now at peak time. </p>
<p>Considering these significant problems, we are unlikely to see autonomous vehicle freeways. Like the dream of <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">all freeways</a> they will in reality remain stuck in traffic at peak times with or without autonomous vehicles. </p>
<h2>Safer?</h2>
<p>Another spruiked benefit of autonomous vehicles is increased safety. Brendan Gogarty has written <a href="https://theconversation.com/killer-robots-hit-the-road-and-the-law-has-yet-to-catch-up-49735">on The Conversation</a> that the record in testing is certainly not fail safe. He shows that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>human error is perhaps the most problematic issue facing autonomous cars. This applies not only to drivers but also other road users. Roads are not isolated places, nor are they restricted to car use. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Autonomous trains have been around for 30 years and have a very good track record. That’s because they don’t require humans suddenly being able to intervene. Nor do they have a chance of harming others as they are completely isolated on separate tracks. But autonomous cars present both these problems. </p>
<p>The need to remove all human intervention is a real issue for autonomous freeways. Unless this is done traffic flow will constantly be interrupted by those wanting to take over control to get out of the column or through some preference or panic.</p>
<p>When autonomous vehicles want to leave the freeway, they will be in a much less predictable space, one that is shared with vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians that are not under any kind of control system. The likelihood of accidents in this space is high unless autonomous vehicles are tuned to react beyond anything yet imagined. This would likely result in highly sensitive autonomous vehicles that will be crawling along reacting to every little movement. </p>
<p>What are we left with? Not much really. In terms of time savings and safety, autonomous vehicles will not be a disruptive innovation to urban transport systems. So what potential use is there for autonomous vehicles?</p>
<h2>Getting that ‘first mile’</h2>
<p>The new urban economics movement shows that cities can <a href="http://theconversation.com/dont-panic-traffic-congestion-is-not-coming-for-our-cities-45154">save time and reduce road accidents</a> if they spend their precious infrastructure resources on fast rail that can go around, under or over traffic, and create <a href="http://islandpress.org/book/the-end-of-automobile-dependence">highly walkable, pedestrian-friendly city centres</a> and sub-centres.</p>
<p>It means that new rail lines and new centres need to be built deep into car-based suburbs struggling to find a disruptive transport system. We need to think about how autonomous vehicles can help in this transition. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles will need to be banned from city centres that are prioritising pedestrians. But, out in the suburbs, there will be increasing numbers of people who need help getting to the nearest train station so they can travel quickly across the city, then at the other end with the short distance to a destination.</p>
<p>This is the “last mile” or “first mile” issue in public transport planning. Solutions have involved buses, bikes and car drop-offs but could include autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p>Autonomous vehicle “taxis” could find an important niche with their demand-responsive system. Such vehicles could be electric along with the trains making an oil-free, equitable and efficient system. </p>
<p>Now, that would be disruptive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Self-driving cars may not be the solution to all our transport woes. Better to focus on public transport.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/451542015-07-26T20:14:40Z2015-07-26T20:14:40ZDon’t panic! Traffic congestion is not coming for our cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89609/original/image-20150724-3628-146rz5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While there may be bad congestion in parts of Australia's cities now, data suggest that car use has peaked. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottdavies/3604811099/">Scott Davies/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a new fear on the block. Not just ISIS, home invasions, wind turbines and the budget deficit, but now we must fear … traffic congestion.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/australian-infrastructure-audit.aspx">Infrastructure Australia report</a> on the future needs of our cities emphasises the growing problem of urban traffic congestion all over the country. It is echoed by the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/">State of Australian Cities</a> report.</p>
<p>Congestion, it warns, will overwhelm our futures, making them unlivable, uneconomic and ungovernable as we fight for every piece of road space.</p>
<p>But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion?</p>
<h2>The fear</h2>
<p>According to the IA report travel times are going to increase by at least 20%. The total cost of such congestion will increase from A$13.7 billion a year to A$53.3 billion by 2031, an increase of nearly three times. The loss of time will apparently cripple us.</p>
<p>The public policy reaction to fear is to jettison economic analysis and throw money at it. No benefit-cost ratio is needed as we need to act now or it will overwhelm us. Kneejerk reactions like this are usually regretted in hindsight but at the time we have no choice, it must be done.</p>
<p>In this climate of congestion-fear big roads are not being assessed, just announced. The congestion peril is coming. We must honour the Abbott government’s election commitments to around A$40 billion of high-capacity roads such as the East-West Link in Melbourne (now discredited and dropped by the Victorian Government), the Connex West system in Sydney (causing similar pain with communities subject to its impact) and most recently the Perth Freight Link (which looms as the biggest election issue facing the Barnett government that never actually wanted it). All of these roads have benefit cost ratios that make them very questionable.</p>
<p>Long-term plans are being drawn out of old cupboards for road projects dreamed up in the 1960s – like a plan to build a 10-km tunnel under Perth’s Swan river to link the city’s leafy western suburbs with the similarly well-heeled area around Applecross. Good luck with that one.</p>
<h2>Peak car</h2>
<p>The congestion trends being used to scare us are not based on actual data but on projections. They come from a model that is now discredited. In reality Australian cities <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">peaked in car use</a> per person <a href="http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=183183&local_base=GEN01-ERA02">in 2004</a>, like all developed cities across the globe. </p>
<p>The chart below shows that peak car occurred in all Australian cities, regardless of their level of congestion as Canberra, Hobart and Darwin also peaked.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89735/original/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peak car use in Australian cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around the world there is a new dynamic in our cities as the young and wealthy are moving back into cities where they do not need to use a car and they are preferring fast trains and buses over traffic wherever they can. </p>
<p>Rail patronage is booming way beyond predictions as the speed of rail leaves traffic behind. The table below shows the relative speed of public transport (bus and rail) which is gaining but still loses to traffic, and rail to traffic which is now <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">beating the traffic</a> in all cities in our global sample.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89596/original/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Comparative Speeds of public transport (bus and rail) to traffic and also rail to traffic in global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">Newman & Kenworthy 2015</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting the traffic</h2>
<p>For decades the transport planning profession has used what is known as the Four Step model to predict traffic and hence provide road capacity. It does not suggest any other options than increasing road capacity such as public transport or land use changes that reduce the need to travel. </p>
<p>It has been put aside by most European cities who quickly saw what it did to rip the heart out of American cities. Despite its obvious simplicity it remains one of the modernist tools that are used to explain the future of cities. Most of all it is a tool to create congestion-fear. </p>
<p>But the Four Step model now has revealed one major failing: it assumes that as wealth rises then car ownership and car use will also rise. As the data above suggest if we look to the future we can confidently predict that wealth will rise but we cannot predict that this will automatically mean more car use. They are now decoupling.</p>
<p>The young and the wealthy are buying locations where car dependence is minimised and where sustainable transport options are easily available. Freedom and connection is now based on smart phones and social media and these are easier to use where you can walk, cycle or use a bus and train.</p>
<p>In the US the cities that are decoupling GDP from car use the most are the cities which have invested in rail, such as Washington DC and Portland, as you can see in the chart below. In cities that are emphasising sustainable transport modes the economic benefits are <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Triumph-City-Greatest-Invention-Healthier/dp/0143120549">increasingly being demonstrated</a> (see also the <a href="http://www.creativeclass.com/richard_florida/books/the_great_reset">book</a> and <a href="http://www.citylab.com/work/2012/11/cities-denser-cores-do-better/3911/">this article</a> by urban theorist and professor at University of Toronto Richard Florida) as the knowledge economy requires dense centres and spatially efficient modes - walking, cycling and rail transit.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89736/original/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Decoupling wealth from car use in Washington DC and Portland, Oregon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This global trend is also not just a phenomenon of wealthy cities. Rail projects are dominating the transport agenda of Chinese cities (building metros in 82 cities) and Indian cities (51 cities are building metros now since Prime Minister Modi <a href="http://www.sustainablecitiescollective.com/david-thorpe/281501/indias-2014-budget-promises-cash-100-smart-cities-metros-much-more">declared</a> any city over a million needs quality transit).</p>
<p>Even if we were faced with a mountain of traffic congestion we should not be building high capacity roads as they are no longer working to deliver the transport outcomes once expected. The Texas Transportation Institute <a href="http://mobility.tamu.edu/">has compared</a> miles of freeway against delay in the top 20 American cities and found no correlation, as you can see in the chart below.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89737/original/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Freeways and delay in American cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Information</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/documents/foot-traffic-ahead.pdf">latest data</a> on American cities shows that the top six most walkable cities have 38% higher walkability. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Cities-People-Jan-Gehl/dp/159726573X">Australian cities</a> have been showing this in their city centres as well (Gehl, 2011). This is now the real competitive edge attracting capital for the knowledge economy and to retain the young talent. This is how we should be facing the future not quivering in fear about congestion.</p>
<p>It’s time to change our traffic prediction models.</p>
<p>It’s time to support global trends towards transit, walkability and urban regeneration.</p>
<p>It’s time to drop the big road fetish.</p>
<p>It’s time to stop fear of congestion as the core issue facing the future of our cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a new fear on the block … traffic congestion. But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion?Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/406292015-04-28T20:08:06Z2015-04-28T20:08:06ZYou may be travelling less – and that’s a good thing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79563/original/image-20150428-10264-1pc78mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People travelled a total of 40 trillion km in 2012, mostly by car. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/npobre/8189066572">Norlando Pobre/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1900, humans travelled a total of just <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Carbon-Civilisation-Environmental/dp/1849964823/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1342223577&sr=1-2">0.2 trillion km</a> by vehicle, nearly all by train. </p>
<p>By 1950, people travelled a total of 3.3 trillion km, and by 2010, the annual total was over 40 trillion km – or over 133,000 round trips to the sun. That’s an average of nearly <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2012.735916">6,000 km per person</a> each year. About half of all travel was by car, and 12% was by air.</p>
<p>But times are changing. Reductions in per capita passenger travel in key OECD countries has already begun. In <a href="http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/yearbook_2014.aspx">Australia</a>, per capita surface travel (road, rail and sea travel) has fallen since 2006, while in the <a href="http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm">US</a>, it is still below its 2008 value. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/index.htm">Japan</a>, both total surface and air travel have been falling since 2000. A number of European countries are also experiencing <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01441647.2013.801928">“peak travel”</a>.</p>
<p>This is a good thing, and efforts to further reduce travel (both passenger and freight) must be encouraged, for a variety of reasons.</p>
<h2>Why we should reduce vehicle travel</h2>
<p>Global transport is a major cause of both global oil depletion and climate change. Despite much talk about bio-fuels such as ethanol, oil in 2012 still supplied about <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2014.pdf">93%</a> of all transport fuels. Global transport also produced <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2012.735916waisman13">22.5%</a> of all energy-related greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/">official</a> view is that these two problems can be overcome by a variety of technical fixes. These include use of alternative fuels and boosting vehicle energy efficiency, plus more exotic solutions such as storing carbon underground, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-and-desperate-measures-the-case-for-and-against-geoengineering-1593">geoengineering</a>. </p>
<p>The first two are already used to some extent, but have made little impact on either transport energy use or the resulting <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2014.pdf">greenhouse gas emissions</a>. The latter two technical fixes face <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-will-never-again-have-as-much-energy-as-now-its-time-to-adapt-38228">serious problems</a> and may never be employed.</p>
<p>In contrast to the current hype about the First World War, the tens of millions of road dead go unremembered. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), some 1.24 million people were killed on the world’s roads in <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/">2010 alone</a>. Traffic deaths are now the eighth leading cause of mortality, and number one for 15-29 year-olds. </p>
<p>Traffic death rates are falling in OECD countries, but generally rising elsewhere as mass car ownership spreads to other countries. For this reason, the WHO forecast traffic fatalities moving up to the fifth leading cause of death globally by <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/">2030</a>.</p>
<p>Paradoxically, fatality rates (deaths per 100,000 people) are far higher in low-income countries, despite their low levels of vehicle ownership. The main reason? Pedestrian and cyclist deaths can be as high as two-thirds of those killed, compared with 16% in <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/">Australia</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/">Tens of millions</a> are also injured each year on the world’s roads. Particularly in low-income countries, this can mean a double catastrophe: loss of earnings and high medical costs for the affected families. </p>
<p>Air pollution also results in <a href="http://www.uncrd.or.jp/content/documents/22048EST-P7-BGP_ITDP.pdf">millions of premature deaths</a>, especially in Asian megacities, and the rapid rise in vehicular traffic is an important cause. Further, a recent <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412011000535">Chinese study</a> has found that children’s school performance was adversely affected by living in traffic-polluted areas. </p>
<h2>What’s the alternative?</h2>
<p>For some time in OECD countries—and even elsewhere, when we consider traffic casualties and air pollution health effects—the societal costs of extra mobility have been rising faster than the benefits obtained. We must now focus on <em>accessibility</em> —the ease with which people can reach various activities — rather than <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-will-never-again-have-as-much-energy-as-now-its-time-to-adapt-38228">vehicular mobility</a>.</p>
<p>When access replaces mobility, we can finally start designing our cities for humans rather than cars. We’ll need to design our cities and towns to encourage an attachment to place, rather than endlessly trying to be someplace else. Excess mobility can destroy this sense of place. </p>
<p>As Gertrude Stein reportedly said about her home town, Oakland, <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/339785-whenever-you-get-there-there-is-no-there-there">California</a>: “Whenever you get there, there is no there there.” </p>
<p>The needed changes may be easier than we think. In 1947, our cities were strongly focused toward the inner areas. Today, with suburbanisation, jobs, retail sales, and services are much more evenly spread over the city. Per capita travel levels have risen several-fold in our cities since 1947, when potentially they could have been <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328708000931">reduced</a>. </p>
<p>To hasten this process of “localisation”, we’ll have to reverse our usual urban transport priority of private car, then public transport, and non-motorised modes last. Such a reversal would bring important health benefits; physical exercise has been called the <a href="http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0262407912622143/1-s2.0-S0262407912622143-main.pdf?_tid=af34f10c-e88b-11e4-9a9d-00000aab0f26&acdnat=1429664916_2c04963ed4e5dc61c9d0eb47040bbf02">“wonder drug”</a>. </p>
<p>Further, <a href="http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0262407914613269/1-s2.0-S0262407914613269-main.pdf?_tid=37160000-e893-11e4-8a52-00000aacb360&acdnat=1429668151_16f11fb986841a32993e6b1a60fc098d">recent research</a> has found that the rise in obesity in recent decades results from physical inactivity, not from increased calories.</p>
<p>Not only will we have to rely much less on car travel, we’ll also need to drop travel speeds, partly for safety reasons. For car collisions with pedestrians at <a href="http://pid.sagepub.com/content/213/1/19.full.pdf+html">80 km per hour</a>, most do not survive the impact, but at 32 km per hour, only 5% are killed. And of course, at low speeds, collisions are far fewer anyhow. </p>
<p>Non-motorised travel is superior to other modes in a number of ways: it uses no fossil fuels and produces no pollution. It is also cheap, efficient in urban land use, and needs no licence to operate. </p>
<p>So what’s the drawback? Compared with cars, it’s only good for humans, not for economic growth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Moriarty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Across the western world, the distance people travel is starting to fall. That’s a good thing, for us and the environment.Patrick Moriarty, Adjunct Associate Professor, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/332392014-11-13T01:17:25Z2014-11-13T01:17:25ZIncreasing fuel taxes could save thousands of lives worldwide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62931/original/ygtrzznn-1414456441.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Economic modelling suggests raising fuel taxes could get cars off the road - and therefore save lives. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/index-in.mhtml">Khongkit Wiriyachan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Road safety is a seriously important public policy issue. Around <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/">1.3 million</a> people die in road crashes around the world each year. Among teenagers and young adults, road crashes are the <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/">number-one</a> cause of death. </p>
<p>As many as <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/world_report/en/">50 million</a> people a year also suffer non-fatal road injuries.</p>
<p>As economists, <a href="https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/nishitateno-s">Shuhei Nishitateno</a> and I felt that economics is perhaps more useful in understanding road safety than it is often given credit for.</p>
<p>We collected data for 144 countries over the period 1991-2010 to answer one question: do higher petrol prices reduce road death rates?</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecin.12171/abstract">study</a>, just published, finds strong evidence that the answer is “yes”, with a 10% increase in petrol prices typically reducing road deaths by between 3% and 6%. The effect is largely a result of a reduction in driving. We’ve previously found that higher fuel prices lead to people
substituting away from “<a href="http://theconversation.com/gas-guzzlers-fuelled-by-shrinking-petrol-tax-12552">gas guzzlers</a>” — also part of the story.</p>
<p>Ours is the first comprehensive international study on the topic.</p>
<h2>Subsidising road risks</h2>
<p>Our findings are of most relevance to fuel-subsidising countries such as Venezuela, where petrol is sold for only <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EP.PMP.SGAS.CD">2 cents per litre</a>. Other countries with discount fuel include the oil-rich nations of Iran and Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>These countries’ roads are among the world’s most dangerous. The World Health Organisation reports that <a href="http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.A997">37 people per 100,000 population</a> die in road crashes in Venezuela each year, <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/">double the global rate</a>.</p>
<p>We calculate that, globally, around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of fuel subsidies. This is a football stadium of people, annually. The bulk would be in Iran, Venezuela, Indonesia, and Nigeria.</p>
<p>In Indonesia, subsidies for vehicle fuel account for <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00074918.2014.938403#.VC4uJldpdAs">around 15%</a> of all central government expenditures. We estimate that these result in several thousand additional road deaths each year, one of the many reasons subsidising fuel is such poor policy. Subsidy reform is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/indonesia-fuel-subsidies-idUSL3N0RJ1VF20140918">a key priority</a> of Indonesia’s new President Joko Widodo.</p>
<h2>Global action on road safety</h2>
<p>We are at the middle of the United Nations’ Decade of Action for <a href="http://www.who.int/roadsafety/decade_of_action/en/">Road Safety 2011-2020</a>, which has the goal of stabilising and then reducing the number of global road deaths.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.who.int/roadsafety/decade_of_action/plan/en/">Global Plan</a> for the Decade of Action is silent on the potential role of fuel subsidy reductions and taxes in reducing road death rates. Our findings suggest more attention should be paid to the idea.</p>
<h2>Implications for Australia</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_annual_summaries.aspx">1,193</a> people lost their lives in road crashes in Australia in 2013. Australia’s road death toll has <a href="http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2010/is_038.aspx">fallen by almost 70% since its peak in 1970</a>, but our per-capita road death rate remains <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_road_safety_comparisons.aspx">stuck above</a> the rates of some other developed countries. Australia has among the <a href="http://theconversation.com/factcheck-do-australians-pay-high-petrol-taxes-29264">lowest petrol taxes in the OECD</a>. </p>
<p>The government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-gets-round-senate-on-fuel-33538">just reindexed</a> Australia’s fuel excise to the rate of inflation. One outcome will likely be slightly fewer deaths on Australia’s roads.</p>
<p>It is interesting to consider by how much Australia’s road death toll would fall if we had a more radical increase in our fuel excise. We estimate that an excise hike that brought Australia’s average gasoline price to the level of the United Kingdom (a huge increase of 71 Australian cents per litre, analysing year-2010 data) would reduce Australia’s annual road deaths by 200-300 per year.</p>
<h2>Falling global oil price</h2>
<p>Our results suggest that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-an-80-barrel-of-oil-is-bad-33147">more-than-20% fall in the world oil price</a> since June 2014 will unfortunately flow on to more casualties on the world’s roads.</p>
<p>But, like Australia, other countries have the potential to achieve sizeable reductions in road deaths from fuel tax increases. Our estimates imply that a tax increase that brought fuel prices in the United States up to the United Kingdom average would reduce the annual road toll in the United States by more than a quarter (around 10,000 lives per year as of 2010). </p>
<p>There are of course other factors to consider in setting fuel taxes. And one day vehicles may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/boys-and-their-toys-a-crash-course-in-driverless-cars-2319">so safe</a> that road deaths diminish as a policy issue. But, for the moment, that’s a lot of lives.</p>
<p><em>“Gasoline Prices and Road Fatalities: International Evidence” has been published by Economic Inquiry. The paper and data can be accessed from <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/people/academic/paul-burke">Paul Burke’s website</a>. An open-access version is available <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/pas/papers/2014-18.html">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Burke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Road safety is a seriously important public policy issue. Around 1.3 million people die in road crashes around the world each year. Among teenagers and young adults, road crashes are the number-one cause…Paul Burke, Fellow, Crawford School, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/298812014-08-27T04:12:52Z2014-08-27T04:12:52ZAustralia’s transport is falling behind on energy efficiency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/56840/original/b3yc76rt-1408497337.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's transport is among the least energy efficient, largely thanks to continuing investment in roads over rail. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/flissphil/5113149061">Phillip Capper/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia has scored poorly in the energy efficiency of its land transport, and is well behind other major economies, a recent <a href="http://www.aceee.org/research-report/e1402">international scorecard</a> has revealed. That means Australians are using more energy to travel each kilometre than people in developed nations such as the US, and major emerging economies such as China, Brazil, and India. </p>
<p>On overall energy efficiency across national efforts, buildings, industry and transport Australia ranked tenth out of 16 major OECD countries. </p>
<p>But the scorecard, published by the <a href="http://www.aceee.org">American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy</a>, found that Australia ranked last for transport and that for overall energy efficiency, Australia is the “one country in which a clear backward trend exists”. The report notes that this has occurred recently. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57427/original/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Of 16 countries Australia ranked tenth for overall energy efficiency, but last for energy efficiency in transport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ACEEE</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How has Australia got here? The trend is driven largely by Australia’s continuing and increasing investment in favour of roads rather than urban rail. Under the first budget for the Abbott government, nearly A$4.25 billion of funds were withdrawn from urban rail and diverted to road construction. </p>
<p>But, if we compare road and rail, we find roads not only encourage more energy use, but cost more too. </p>
<h2>Australia’s transport scorecard</h2>
<p>On the recent scorecard, using OECD, International Energy Agency and other independent data, Australia’s transport was ranked against 15 other countries.</p>
<p>Countries could earn a possible 25 points for transport energy efficiency (on land), on eight different criteria. </p>
<p>On three of eight criteria, Australia scored zero: fuel economy of passenger vehicles on both performance and the setting of future standards, and, for having no fuel efficiency standards for heavy trucks.</p>
<p>For each of four metrics including the use of public transport, and, investment in rail transit versus roads, Australia scored just one point each.</p>
<p>Only in the metric “energy intensity of freight transport” did Australia get full marks. This score was assisted by the very high energy efficiency of the iron ore railways in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.</p>
<p>Such a low ranking for transport energy efficiency policy and performance should act as an incentive for Australia to do better.</p>
<h2>Rail and road compared</h2>
<p>During 2011-12, cars, buses and trucks used nearly <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0/">32 billion litres of petrol</a>, diesel, and LPG. By way of contrast, rail used <a href="http://www.ara.net.au/publications-list?task=track&id=677&url=%2FUserFiles%2Ffile%2FPublications%2F13-09+ARA-2011-12-Rail-Industry-Report.pdf">1.67 billion litres of diesel</a> (or its electricity equivalent) in a year for a smaller passenger task but a larger freight task than road. This reflects the fact that rail is much more energy efficient than road transport to move people and freight.</p>
<p>In the late 1990s, both the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and Engineers Australia gave <a href="http://parkesfoundation.org.au/activities/orations/2011-2/">considered warnings</a> that cheap oil would not last forever, and more energy efficient transport was needed.</p>
<p>These warnings, and one in 2002 by the then Australian Treasury Secretary <a href="http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/440/PDF/Transport_Speech.pdf">Dr Ken Henry</a>, demonstrate the very challenging problems posed to future generations on the projected increases in urban traffic and interstate road freight. </p>
<p>In 2004, oil prices were rising, yet there were government forecasts that oil could be expected to drop back to US$20 a barrel. However, by mid 2008, oil prices had peaked at about US$146 per barrel. With the global recession, oil prices have since receded and so far petrol prices have been restrained. They are expected to increase over the next decade.</p>
<p>A further reason for reform is the sheer amount of money spent on roads, road vehicle usage, and its high external costs. In the early 1990s, research commissioned by the Australian Automobile Association found that the total cost of road vehicle operations, including the fuel they use, buying and maintaining the vehicles, road works, road crashes and external costs was about 11% of GDP.</p>
<p>In 2013-14 terms, this is some <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html">A$173 billion each year</a>. Due to fuel costs and road outlays increasing faster than inflation over the past 20 years, and growing road congestion, this estimate is likely to be conservative.</p>
<p>There are numerous hidden costs of road vehicle use, but not including road congestion, leading to leading to a “road deficit” of about 1% of GDP. Road congestion costs add a further 1% or so of GDP. These costs simply cannot be reduced by building more roads.</p>
<p>In addition, Australia’s four largest cities need major urban rail upgrades, and the states need federal funds to progress the new rail construction. This includes a second Sydney Harbour rail crossing, the new Melbourne Rail Link (Metro), a Brisbane Bus and Train Tunnel, and Perth light rail.</p>
<h2>Wrong way-go back</h2>
<p>A <a href="http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2013/files/INFRA1886_R_BITRE_INFRASTRUCTURE_YEARBOOK_0813_web.pdf">recent report</a> from the Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics notes Australia’s three levels of government and the private sector are now spending over A$20 billion a year on road construction and maintenance.</p>
<p>Informed comment on our land transport policy (or lack thereof) has been provided in a recent report “<a href="http://www.ycat.org.au/?news=why-dont-they-do-it-in-the-road">Spend more, waste more. Australia’s roads in 2014: moving beyond gambling</a>”. The report, prepared for Infrastructure Australia was briefly placed on their website, and then withdrawn. It now may be found at the website of the <a href="http://www.ycat.org.au">Yarra Campaign for Action on Transport</a>, which would much prefer a better rail system for Melbourne rather than the proposed East West motorway that could cost up to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/labor8217s-east-west-link-8216policy8217-is-pathetic-20140820-1069pz.html">A$1 billion for each kilometre or $1m per metre</a>.</p>
<p>As noted by the recent report for Infrastructure Australia, “between 2008-09 and 2011-12, over A$4.5 billion more was spent on roads than was raised in almost all road taxes and charges.” </p>
<p>After noting the need for reform in road pricing, including mass distance location for the heavier trucks, this report considers that the big annual outlay of roads, which is set to grow even larger at the expense of federal funding of urban rail, is a “road spend [that] can only be described as hideously inefficient.”</p>
<p>Clearly, current federal policies of putting more money into roads and less into rail is a case of ignoring all the signs of “Wrong way-go back”.</p>
<p>Building more freeways will induce <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-freeways-cure-congestion-time-to-put-the-myth-to-bed-13896">more traffic</a>, and hence more road congestion with more liquid fuel use. </p>
<p>A more sustainable approach would be for Australia’s major cities to expand their urban railways, and for people to use more buses, cycling and/or walking. This would reduce liquid fuel use and hence emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29881/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some rail and road freight companies. He has previously received funding from the two Rail related CRCs and is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>Australia has scored poorly in the energy efficiency of its land transport, and is well behind other major economies, a recent international scorecard has revealed. That means Australians are using more…Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/295202014-07-22T05:25:04Z2014-07-22T05:25:04ZMotorway folly shows big business is really driving the Welsh government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54476/original/ghwkxd66-1405963198.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wales is thataway.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tim_norris/2414655582">Tim Norris</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New tax-and-spend powers mean the Welsh government will soon have some serious money to play with. The usual advice to the newly rich is to not spend it all at once, but in this case that already appears to be too late. The government has announced it plans to borrow £500m – the entirety of its new borrowing powers – to help fund a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28338196">new £1 billion seven-and-a-half mile relief road</a> for the M4 motorway, the main arterial road into and out of Wales.</p>
<p>Such a major investment in a single project isn’t necessarily bad, of course, if it is the right project. But this decision, which has seen significant division across the political spectrum in Wales, with opposition parties walking out of budget negotiations (Labour relies on opposition support to pass its annual budget) and threats of legal action about the route chosen, tells us a lot about how the Welsh government plans to use its greater powers, and what its economic priorities appear to be. </p>
<p>The business community in Wales is equally divided, with big businesses groups such as the CBI <a href="http://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/gwentnews/11342155.Welsh_big_businesses_back_M4_Relief_Road/">welcoming the decision</a> and the Federation of Small Businesses calling for a <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-07-17/fsb-m4-relief-road-is-a-billion-pound-mistake/">significantly cheaper alternative route</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/54491/original/s5cxcghx-1405983898.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The M4 runs from London to south Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:M4_motorway_map_animated.gif">Nilfanion / OS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The decision to build the motorway locks Wales into an economic model predicated on attempting to secure major investment from big businesses in the UK and abroad. The Welsh business minister sees major infrastructural projects as critical to attracting such investment. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukti-inward-investment-report-2013-2014">report by UK Trade and Investment</a> showed that during the past year, 79 foreign companies had invested in Wales, the highest level for 24 years. The same report, however, shows that 656 foreign companies invested in London alone during the last year. Despite growing numbers of foreign investments in Wales, the gap with London continues to grow significantly.</p>
<p>In putting all its eggs in the foreign investment basket, the Welsh government appears to be wedded to the same dominant economic paradigm which has characterised all UK governments since the 1970’s abandonment of Keynesianism.</p>
<h2>Peripheral problems</h2>
<p>Regions on the European periphery, like Wales, have disproportionately been disadvantaged by this economic approach. The levels of child poverty in Wales, and other similarly disadvantaged areas of the UK, have risen from 10% in the late 1960s, <a href="https://www.savethechildren.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/Child-Poverty-Snapshots-English.pdf">to 33% today</a>. My <a href="http://www.regenwales.org/project_9_The--Deep-Place--Study">own work</a> looking at the South Wales town of Tredegar has shown how the skills and employment base of post-industrial communities has seen a steady decline during the era of neo-liberal dominance.</p>
<p>Researchers at Manchester University’s Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC), have published a manifesto for what they call the “<a href="http://www.cresc.ac.uk/our-research/remaking-capitalism/the-foundational-economy">Foundational Economy</a>”, which is where they argue around 10m people in the UK are employed in the mundane, but essential goods and services sectors such as utilities, food, health, education and welfare. </p>
<p>Economists and politicians tend to frame economic discussions within neo-liberalism: prioritising “competitiveness”, “efficiency”, “market forces” and so on. The M4 relief road has to been seen within this context. That the Welsh government is genuinely committed to tackling poverty through creating further jobs is not in question; employment and skills and education are at the heart of its comprehensive anti-poverty strategy.</p>
<p>But for this to pay off, wealth would have to then trickle down into Wales’ poorest communities and the government appears to be committing itself to an emphasis on securing investment from outside the region as the principle means of creating jobs. In so doing, it risks missing the development of its own local “foundational economies” in Welsh communities. Why grow your local economy in a sustainable manner when you could just attract multinationals and create <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/story-behind-inward-investment-projects-7465715">2726 new jobs</a> instead?</p>
<p>Global financial capital is highly mobile, however, and Wales is significantly disadvantaged in relation to London and the South-East with regard to high tech and knowledge-intensive investment into the UK. It is also significantly disadvantaged in relation to the developing world with regard to low-skill, low-wage investment, to which much of Wales’ manufacturing based has already migrated. </p>
<p>Wales cannot afford to ignore the fact it is intricately connected to the UK, European and global economies, but it cannot also ignore the opportunities that could arise from developing its own local economies.</p>
<p>The M4 relief road is intended as a shortcut around the city of Newport. It may yet be an unsuccessful shortcut to a better economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New tax-and-spend powers mean the Welsh government will soon have some serious money to play with. The usual advice to the newly rich is to not spend it all at once, but in this case that already appears…Mark Lang, Honorary University Associate, Sustainable Places Research Institute, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.