tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/ndp-43853/articlesNDP – The Conversation2024-01-12T21:43:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210072024-01-12T21:43:06Z2024-01-12T21:43:06ZA ‘giant’ of Canadian politics: Ed Broadbent’s mixed legacy on social democracy and free trade<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/a-giant-of-canadian-politics-ed-broadbents-mixed-legacy-on-social-democracy-and-free-trade" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Former federal NDP leader Ed Broadbent was one of the good ones.</p>
<p>News of his death at age 87, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ed-broadbent-dies-1.7080936">announced on Jan. 11</a>, has <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/ottawa-playbook/2024/01/12/canada-loses-a-giant-remembering-ed-broadbent-00135268">inspired a wave of tributes</a>, including from former political opponents. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ed-broadbent-passes-away-remembered-fondly-1.7081090">Brian Mulroney called Broadbent</a> a “giant in the Canadian political scene” and rightly said he would have been prime minister had he led any other party. </p>
<p>I still smile thinking about a photograph taken during the 1988 election when Broadbent gamely had the <a href="https://www.ledroit.com/2013/11/21/maurice-mad-dog-vachon-rend-lame-d60a79613ee313cbc0a5518ad434249a/">Vachon brothers</a>, beloved wrestlers from Québec who were NDP candidates, in a double headlock. It was silly, and great political theatre. </p>
<p>However, Broadbent’s political legacy was a mixed one. </p>
<h2>Turning point in history</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Party-positions-in-the-1988-polls_fig1_252539415">Riding high in the polls</a>, the NDP decided to play it safe in the 1988 election and play down the divisive free trade issue. It was a monumental mistake — for the NDP, certainly, which saw the John Turner Liberals capture the issue, but also for the country. </p>
<p><a href="https://canadianelectionsdatabase.ca/PHASE5/?p=0&type=election&ID=610">Brian Mulroney’s Tories won</a> in what was a de facto referendum on the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement and, as it turned out, a turning point in 20th century Canadian political history. </p>
<p>The free trade election rocked the federal NDP to its very foundations. <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/robert-white">Bob White</a>, president of the Canadian Auto Workers, and a vice president of the federal party, was livid. He drafted an angry seven-page letter to the NDP executive a few days later, as he “watched the disintegration of what should have been the New Democratic Party’s finest hour.” </p>
<p>For White, the election strategy and result were nothing short of disastrous and warranted a full debate within the party. The executive of the Canadian Labour Congress met two days after the election. In his letter he said, “their level of anger, frustration and concern about the campaign, was the most emotional I have ever seen.”</p>
<p>Somehow, the NDP — the party of labour — did not grasp the central importance of free trade for working class Canadians. </p>
<p>White reminded the party leadership that, for the past three years, the labour movement had mobilized on this issue across the country: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“While a lot of our concern was expressed about jobs, even more dealt with social programs, environment, regional assistance, energy, privatization, deregulation, etc. In other words, not a narrow self-interest approach.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>With business organizations lining up on the other side of the debate, why didn’t the party of working people understand what was at stake? </p>
<p>In answering this question, White declared that: “we didn’t fail by accident — but rather, we failed by design.” Indeed, “if ever there is an issue the social democratic movement in Canada should oppose with total emotion and strength, it is this deal.”</p>
<h2>The Free Trade Agreement’s legacy</h2>
<p>Broadbent <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/when-ed-broadbent-stepped-down-as-ndp-leader-1.5028383">resigned as NDP leader soon after the election</a> after 14 years of leading the party.</p>
<p>The timing of the <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/united_states-etats_unis/fta-ale/background-contexte.aspx?lang=eng">Free Trade Agreement</a> could not have been worse for Canada’s manufacturing sector, given the high Canadian dollar, which had risen from <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/66674/timeline-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-canadian-loonie/">70 cents to the U.S. dollar in 1986 to 89 cents in 1991</a>. </p>
<p>There were other factors at play, such as higher interest rates and the imposition of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/no-regrets-as-gst-turns-20-mulroney-1.905501">goods and services tax (GST)</a> by the Mulroney government.</p>
<p>In short order, Canada’s branch plant economy was made largely redundant as multinational corporations restructured their operations in favour of global supply chains, rather than branch plants serving national markets. </p>
<p>Employment in Ontario’s manufacturing industries as a percentage of the workforce, dropped like a stone <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/253986997_Community_Participation_and_Multilevel_Governance_in_Economic_Development_Policy">from 30.2 per cent in 1981 to just 18 per cent in 1991</a>. </p>
<p>In an interview with Bob Rae, NDP premier of Ontario from 1990 to 1995, in April 2023 for a book I’m writing about his government, he told me the “initial impact of free trade in Ontario in 1990 was terrible. It was a disaster. Because you had all of these companies that were closing down branch plants left and right.” </p>
<h2>Lessons from the past</h2>
<p>There is a lot of talk these days about “<a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/WCMS_824102/lang--en/index.htm">just transitions</a>,” especially in the context of climate change. We can learn a lot from the profoundly unjust transition after free trade. </p>
<p>There were no special adjustment measures. Instead, the Mulroney government <a href="https://canadianlabour.ca/passage-of-the-unemployment-insurance-act/">restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance</a>, pushing many directly onto provincial welfare rolls. Even severance pay was clawed back.</p>
<p>The 1988 election was a watershed in Canadian politics, sweeping aside the economic nationalism that had been a bulwark against neoliberal globalization. Thereafter, protectionists were to the new global order what the <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/why-did-the-luddites-protest/">Luddites had been to the industrial revolution</a>: objects of ridicule and scorn. </p>
<p>The extreme <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9809757/wealth-gap-canada-first-quarter-2023/">income disparity</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-function-in-an-increasingly-polarized-society-171081">political polarization</a> we see today, at least in part, is the direct result of the path we took in 1988. We will never know if Broadbent’s election would have made a difference, and this makes me sad with his passing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven High receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Former federal NDP leader and founder of the Broadbent Institute, Ed Broadbent, has died at the age of 87. His political legacy is a mixed one.Steven High, Professor of History, Centre for Oral History and Digital Storytelling (COHDS), Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194782023-12-28T19:36:45Z2023-12-28T19:36:45ZWill the supply-and-confidence deal between the Liberals and NDP survive in 2024?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/will-the-supply-and-confidence-deal-between-the-liberals-and-ndp-survive-in-2024" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Signed in March 2022, <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">the supply-and-confidence agreement between the governing Liberals and the opposition New Democrats</a> has already led to significant social policy expansion, including the adoption of the <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/everything-we-know-so-far-about-the-canadian-dental-care-plan">Canadian Dental Care Plan</a>.</p>
<p>The deal eased the uncertainty facing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government while allowing the NDP to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4007281">take credit</a> for some of the government’s social policy announcements.</p>
<p>But the future of the deal <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2293259843686">has been called into question</a> in recent months. That’s because of the Trudeau government’s failure in 2023 to deliver on pharmacare, a central aspect of the March 2022 agreement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pharmacare-ndp-liberal-1.7059558">With the deadline for a pharmacare bill recently extended until March 1</a>, it’s helpful to look back at the origins of the supply-and-confidence agreement as we examine its fate in the year ahead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politicians-come-and-go-but-the-clock-is-now-ticking-on-long-promised-pharmacare-215492">Politicians come and go, but the clock is now ticking on long-promised pharmacare</a>
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<h2>Past agreements</h2>
<p>Inter-party agreements in Canadian Parliament are extremely rare. Apart from the <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/how-the-ndp-saved-pierre-trudeaus-government">1972 agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats</a>, there had never been an alliance between federal political parties in Canada before the <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">2022 agreement between Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/confidence-and-supply-what-does-it-mean-and-how-will-it-work-for-the-new-government">Such supply-and-confidence agreements are common elsewhere in the Commonwealth</a>, but largely unprecedented in Canadian politics. </p>
<p>That’s why understanding the origins and impacts of this agreement — in which the NDP stays in opposition but supports the Liberal government, actively contributing to the implementation of key policy — is important.</p>
<h2>Three factors at play</h2>
<p>Three recent changes in federal politics help explain why both parties entered into the agreement in 2022. </p>
<p>First, since Trudeau became prime minister in late 2015, the Liberals and NDP have moved closer together. The two parties share more policies than in the past, especially in the area of social policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc/puac002">The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, provided an opportunity for greater co-operation in the design and implementation of temporary and expansive emergency measures.</a> In the aftermath of the pandemic, both parties agreed that new permanent federal programs are necessary, which is reflected in the details of the supply-and-confidence deal.</p>
<p>Second, public support over the last four years has left the Liberals and the NDP in a tricky situation. <a href="https://www.mqup.ca/canadian-federal-election-of-2021--the-products-9780228013822.php">Liberal victory margins were small in 2019 and 2021, in both cases leading to a minority government.</a> </p>
<p>Because both the Liberals and the NDP support an expanding social welfare program, the supply-and-confidence agreement provided both parties with a short-term political solution to both implement new key social policies and delay a federal election that could have led to a Conservative victory.</p>
<p>Third, although the Conservative Party consistently won the biggest portion of the popular vote <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/erin-otoole-conservatives-popular-vote-canada-election-054033279.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFCeLBB_d2APEP9wMlTtDSoV1uKcEbQMD5gEB1inwhzk6OPc_8t9U93WBRGx-rBCYS_VUkh8hD_8N-veDfo0dnlsbUz9Jfli4I9R42CBbKjuGYEY1-AJ4BY6iWu5kZn2fDfZcXbCzgwSqJrPF6f9EyoUldoZQEzr3qD2mW6v_Elx">in both 2019 (34.3 per cent) and 2021 (33.7 per cent)</a> — and are ahead in recent polls — the competition is fierce on the political left. </p>
<p>Together, the more progressive parties — the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party — have the support <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-majority-of-canadians-comfortable-or-somewhat-comfortable-with-liberal/">of a significant majority of Canadians</a>, so each have to be seen as a credible political option to assert dominance over the others. </p>
<p>To this end, the supply-and-confidence deal has helped both parties develop and take credit for the expansion of social policies across Canada. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-cabinet-retreat-inflation-housing-wherry-analysis-1.6940959">It’s allowed the Liberals to maintain their identity as the defender of the middle class while the NDP has continued to oppose the wealthy and support the working class.</a></p>
<h2>Political tensions</h2>
<p>Both parties share a progressive identity that has facilitated their alliance. But currently, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ndp-members-grow-frustrated-over-garbage-deal-with-liberals-seek-harder-line-from-singh">growing tensions between the Liberals and the NDP</a> make the future of the agreement increasingly uncertain.</p>
<p>That’s largely because of the recent sharp decline in public support for the Liberals. The plunge has prompted <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-bc-ndp-convention">Singh to become harshly critical of Trudeau</a> in an effort to distance the NDP from an increasingly unpopular government and prime minister. </p>
<p>Singh has suggested the Liberals have only agreed to enact progressive policies that truly help Canadians when forced to do so by the NDP. He said in November 2023: “<a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/jagmeet-singh-blasts-trudeau-poilievre-at-b-c-convention-1.6651723">One of our MPs has described working with the Liberals like wrestling eels that are soaked in oil.”</a> </p>
<p>Singh apparently doesn’t want to be regarded as a mere servant of the Liberals, keeping an unpopular government in power through the supply-and-confidence agreement. </p>
<p>That’s why he regularly reminds Canadians that he could pull the plug on the agreement if the Trudeau government fails to support the measures contained in the deal. Pharmacare is a case in point.</p>
<h2>Death of the deal ahead?</h2>
<p>Will the agreement be dissolved soon? </p>
<p>Terminating the agreement could help the NDP distance itself from the increasingly unpopular Liberals without necessarily triggering a federal election since the party could still support the Trudeau government in confidence votes through one-off deals.</p>
<p>Those types of agreements are much more common in Canada’s minority parliaments than formal legislative coalitions like the existing supply-and-confidence agreement. </p>
<p>The question for the NDP is whether it’s better off electorally with or without the agreement. Because public support for the NDP remains stable (or even slightly higher) while Liberal support has plummeted, that might make the Liberals cling longer to the agreement.</p>
<p>In the next few months, we’ll know whether this unusual agreement survives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Béland receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louis Massé receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>The supply-and-confidence agreement between the Liberals and NDP has helped both parties develop and take credit for the expansion of social policies across Canada. But is it on life support?Daniel Béland, Professor, Political Science, McGill UniversityLouis Massé, PhD Student, Political Science, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151082023-10-24T19:44:28Z2023-10-24T19:44:28ZEducated voters in Canada tend to vote for left-leaning parties while richer voters go right<p>It is hard to miss the increasing attention dedicated to transgender rights in contemporary politics. </p>
<p>In 2015, Justin Trudeau made <a href="https://www.washingtonblade.com/2015/10/20/pro-lgbt-trudeau-defeats-incumbent-canadian-prime-minister/">a quick reference</a> to including discrimination on the grounds of gender identity in the Canadian Human Rights Act, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transgender-rights-1.3584482">implementing the change</a> after the 2015 election.</p>
<p>There wasn’t a significant political reaction to the trend, however, until this summer when three Conservative provincial governments — in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick-trans-lgbtq-higgs-1.6889957">New Brunswick</a>, <a href="https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2023/august/22/education-minister-announces-new-parental-inclusion-and-consent-policies">Saskatchewan</a> and <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/parents-must-be-fully-involved-in-student-s-decision-to-change-pronouns-ontario-education-minister-says-1.6537959">Ontario</a> — moved to adopt policies that restricted the independence of schools to recognize or affirm students’ gender identities and ensuring parental participation. </p>
<p>Clearly, an electoral divide is emerging on the issue. </p>
<h2>Left vs. right voters</h2>
<p>We argue this conflict results from a “diploma divide” in the Canadian electorate similar to what has been seen in other countries. Since the 1990s, parties of the left have increasingly been supported by educated voters, while parties of the right have increasingly been supported by richer voters and the less educated.</p>
<p>While political scientists initially noted this trend, it has been popularized more recently by <a href="http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/GMP2022QJE.pdf">noted French economist Thomas Piketty and his colleagues</a>.</p>
<p>So why would educated voters turn to parties that traditionally support more working-class voters?</p>
<p>One answer is that higher education tends to push people to become both more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102471">socially liberal</a> and more economically right wing. </p>
<p>Piketty and his colleagues argue that as parties of the left become dominated by educated voters, they adopt socially liberal positions that alienate their traditional working-class base. These less educated voters long supported leftist parties and their promises to redistribute income and wealth, but those promises have faded as leftist parties court the well-educated. </p>
<p>We extended Piketty’s research into the Canadian context in a recent article in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102648"><em>Electoral Studies</em></a>, using <a href="http://www.ces-eec.ca/">Canadian Election Study</a> data from 1965 to 2019. The graph below compares the probability that voters with university degrees voted for the “left” — the NDP or Liberals — versus the “right,” including candidates running for the Conservatives, Progressive Conservatives, the Reform Party or the Canadian Alliance. </p>
<p>This is exactly the pattern Piketty and his colleagues identified. Educated voters are increasingly turning to the “left.” Meanwhile, less educated voters, along with richer voters, are turning to the right.</p>
<p>But Canada isn’t like other countries since we don’t have a standard left-right party system. Instead, the Liberals have dominated electoral politics as an amorphous party at the centre of the political spectrum — sometimes shifting to the left, sometimes to the right — that always builds a big tent in the middle. </p>
<p>Analyzing these parties’ support separately shows that they have very different bases of support. The graph below shows the effects of the same variables (education and income) but broken out by party. </p>
<p>A different pattern emerges in this graph. While Liberal and Conservative support fits Piketty’s pattern, the NDP is increasingly attracting support from educated but also poorer voters. </p>
<h2>Sources of division</h2>
<p>What are we to make of all this? </p>
<p>With this long view, ongoing societal conflicts since the 1980s about abortion and same-sex rights take on an outsized significance. </p>
<p>Those issues were major sources of division among voters choosing between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The current divide over transgender rights is just the latest episode in the long trend of educated voters increasingly supporting the Liberals (and sometimes the NDP) with less educated voters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423922000439">increasingly supporting the Conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>However, people concerned with economic redistribution should not despair. Redistributionist politics are not absent from this configuration, particularly in the form of the NDP. For all the talk about <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/jivani-liberal-ndp-coalition-excludes-the-anti-woke-left">a new “woke” NDP</a>, its base is increasingly dominated by poorer voters. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">supply and confidence agreement</a> the NDP signed with the Liberals, four of the seven policy points were explicitly about material gains for workers. This included a transformative dental benefits plan for all Canadians. </p>
<p>If culture war conflicts benefit Liberals <a href="https://theconversation.com/anti-trans-protests-the-conservative-party-could-use-ideological-polarization-to-win-voters-214934">and Conservatives</a> in terms of the differences in education, the agreement shows how delivering redistribution is central to the NDP’s electoral ambitions, especially amid an ongoing <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9985761/food-insecurity-poverty-report-canada/">cost-of-living crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The so-called “diploma divide” we identified is going to ensure that cultural and social conflicts will persist indefinitely and will continue to cause political conflict in Canada. </p>
<p>But material and redistributionist concerns are in the mix as well, assisted by the NDP, a social democratic party that is very different from the other “left” party, the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Kiss receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council for research into the New Democratic Party. He is a long-time member of the New Democratic Party of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Polacko receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, and Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQSC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Graefe's research on Canadian parties is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a member of the NDP.</span></em></p>Does the ‘diploma divide’ make politics more about culture than economic inequality?Simon Kiss, Associate Professor Human Rights and Political Science, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityMatt Polacko, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Political Science, University of TorontoPeter Graefe, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097282023-07-17T20:05:50Z2023-07-17T20:05:50ZAlbertans have more in common than recent elections suggest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537606/original/file-20230716-123600-zs6whc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C5329%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crowds attend Family Day at the Calgary Stampede in Calgary in July 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/albertans-have-more-in-common-than-recent-elections-suggest" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Politics in Alberta are more volatile than ever. And the environment appears to be getting increasingly hostile, with the common ground between progressives and conservatives shrinking election by election.</p>
<p>After four decades of Progressive Conservative governments, Albertans appeared to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-32604002">swerve left in 2015</a> by electing the New Democrats led by Rachel Notley. This dramatic turn of events came just a few years after voters elected the province’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/calgarys-naheed-nenshi-becomes-canadas-first-muslim-mayor/article1215182/">first Muslim mayor</a> in 2010 and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/albertans-elect-tory-majority-government-1.1133869">female premier</a> in 2011. </p>
<p>In these ways, the province seemed to have shifted away from its “cowboy” past, becoming one of Canada’s <a href="https://www.abmunis.ca/news/new-census-shows-continuing-urbanization-alberta">most urbanized</a> and <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/how-well-can-the-ucp-or-ndp-reflect-albertas-diverse-population-a-look-at-the-numbers">ethnically diverse</a> provinces. </p>
<h2>Return of the Conservatives</h2>
<p>The status quo appeared to return, however, when Jason Kenney’s new United Conservative Party (UCP) took back control of the provincial government in 2019. But within months, the government’s inability to handle a dramatic downturn in commodity prices and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-alberta-ndp-notley-jason-kenney-leadership-1.6480595">prompted Albertans</a> to turn against the UCP. </p>
<p>Under new leader Danielle Smith, the UCP <a href="https://rabble.ca/elections/smiths-ucp-ekes-out-a-win-in-calgary-secures-majority/">retained power</a> with a narrow majority, losing most of their seats in Calgary while tallying massive victories in rural areas.</p>
<p>What to make of these sudden swings in party support? Is Alberta as conservative as its conventional image suggests? Are Albertans becoming increasingly polarized? <a href="https://cground.substack.com/p/political-polarization-in-alberta">Ongoing Common Ground research</a> conducted by our University of Alberta research team suggests: in some ways, yes. In other ways, no. </p>
<p>Our team has been in the field since 2019, studying public opinion and political culture in the province. More than anything, our Viewpoint Alberta surveys and Common Ground focus groups reveal a growing gulf between who Albertans actually are, as individuals, and who they see themselves to be, as a community.</p>
<p>When asked which values are big features of provincial politics, most Albertans continue to describe the dominance of “Wild West” notions like freedom, western alienation, bootstrap individualism and prosperity. In short, their perception of the typical Albertan remains rooted in a cowboy past. </p>
<p>This collective, right-wing mentality helps shape the <a href="https://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow">realm of the possible</a> in the minds of many politicians and voters. If we believe that the typical Albertan favours libertarian policies, for instance, we are less likely to raise moderate or progressive alternatives for fear of being labelled out of touch. </p>
<p>Regardless of their own political leanings, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-who-do-albertans-think-they-are-municipal-election-results-1.6221407">most Albertans</a> see their community as overwhelmingly conservative and resistant to change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a cowboy hat serves pancakes to a dark-haired woman." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4504%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alberta Premier Danielle Smith serves up pancakes at her Stampede breakfast in Calgary in July 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Albertans more united than it appears</h2>
<p>Yet when asked about their own political preferences, the average Albertan is far less conservative than the cowboy image suggests. This is true in both urban and rural areas, as Albertans are more united than meets the eye. They tend to be moderate, even progressive, when it comes to social issues like health care and inclusion. </p>
<p>Consider the findings from the latest <a href="https://c-dem.ca/">election study from C-Dem</a>, an election research consortium, that connected our Viewpoint Alberta team with a group of researchers studying federal and provincial politics across Canada. </p>
<p>A full 40 per cent of Albertans believe government should be spending more on social programs, while only one in 10 think the province should be spending less. On education, 60 per cent believe Alberta should spend more, while only five per cent think there should be less spending.</p>
<p>Results from the same survey show that many Albertans simply don’t view their broader community in the same progressive terms. </p>
<p>When asked to place the “typical Albertan” on an ideological spectrum, more than two-thirds (70 per cent) position that person on the right. In reality, however, roughly half of Albertans place themselves in the centre or on the left of that same spectrum, with the other half indicating they are right-wing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person in a blue T-shirt holds up a sign that reads Love Wins at an anti-racism protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters hold signs during an anti-racism rally in Calgary in June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When a society’s collective image diverges from the values of many of its members, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32412-y">cultural rifts can widen</a>. Heated disputes often erupt between those looking to redefine their community’s values and those seeking to preserve them. Communities can succumb to polarization, factionalism and paralysis. </p>
<p>Instead of viewing opponents as adversaries with whom we share broad objectives, people start to see them as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/opinion/enemies-vs-adversaries.html?smid=url-share">enemies to be “owned,” discredited or even destroyed</a> in case they ruin our livelihoods and ways of life. </p>
<p>Politics becomes a contest to humiliate, harm and delegitimize rather than building for a shared future. This sort of factionalism breeds instability, as witnessed in countries like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000125">United Kingdom via Brexit</a> and the rise of Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement in the United States.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-fascist-efforts-to-demolish-democracy-106247">Trump's fascist efforts to demolish democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Talking to Albertans</h2>
<p>Our Common Ground research team is visiting communities across Alberta this summer to get a handle on whether these sorts of forces are at play closer to home. </p>
<p>Over the past four years, we’ve been impressed at the level of civility and moderation displayed by everyday Albertans. At the same time, we have seen worrying signs of factionalism. </p>
<p>Politicians <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/politicians-denounce-video-of-alberta-man-verbally-harassing-deputy-prime-minister-chrystia-freeland-1.6045106">have been targeted</a> for harassment; politicians have <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/05/17/Bully-Haunting-Alberta-Election/">targeted citizens</a> in the same way; local politics in some communities are devolving into <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/empress-medicine-hat-alberta-steve-springett-1.6434145">bitter partisan battles</a>.</p>
<p>This summer, we’re looking for more Albertans from all walks of life to <a href="https://cground.substack.com/p/what-is-life-like-for-the-typical">sign up and join us</a> for a conversation about what we can do to rebuild common ground within and among our communities. </p>
<p>There’s more that unites Albertans than election results and political rhetoric suggests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Wesley receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. His full disclosure statement is available here: <a href="https://jaredwesley.ca/disclosure">https://jaredwesley.ca/disclosure</a></span></em></p>Ongoing research suggests the average Albertan is far less conservative than it appears, especially on social issues like health care and inclusion.Jared Wesley, Professor, Political Science, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031312023-04-10T20:00:33Z2023-04-10T20:00:33ZBritish Columbia’s coverage of contraceptives should inspire the rest of North America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520087/original/file-20230410-7003-jfzc31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">British Columbia's move to provide free contraception is an act of defending and upholding reproductive rights and freedoms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/access-to-free-birth-control-begins-in-british-columbia-1.6339248">As of April 1, 2023 all residents of British Columbia gained access to free prescription contraception</a>. This includes the birth control pill, injections and implants, IUDs and emergency contraception known as Plan B or the “morning after” pill.</p>
<p>The bold move makes good on a campaign promise of the NDP government. </p>
<p>It’s the focus of sustained activism of groups like <a href="https://www.accessbc.org/">AccessBC</a> and Action Canada for Sexual Health and Rights, and was ignited by the ongoing abortion politics south of the border, where a judge in Texas just <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/health/abortion-pills-ruling-texas.html">issued a preliminary ruling invalidating the Food and Drug Administration’s 23-year-old approval of the abortion pill mifepristone</a>. That ruling was almost immediately followed <a href="https://apnews.com/article/washington-abortion-pills-lawsuit-fda-1857d1a4fd356c61ad76e00621e93b44">by a contradictory decision</a> by a judge in Washington state.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/health/health-drug-coverage/pharmacare-for-bc-residents/what-we-cover/prescription-contraceptives">B.C. policy</a> could serve as a model for other provinces — Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government, for example, has already said it’s “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2023/03/08/ontario-looking-closely-at-bc-plan-to-offer-free-contraception-health-minister-says.html">looking closely at what British Columbia has proposed</a>.” </p>
<p>Nonetheless, universal coverage of contraception beyond British Columbia is unlikely at the moment. It does not seem to be a serious proposal of any current provincial government. </p>
<p>While some provincial opposition parties have promised universal contraception, policy progress depends on whether they actually get elected. It will also depend on a number of factors that will shape their political agenda once in office.</p>
<h2>List not fully complete</h2>
<p>The new coverage in B.C. is extended to anyone with a provincial health card and requires a physician’s prescription until later this spring, when <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/health/accessing-health-care/pharmacy-services">pharmacists will be able to prescribe contraceptives</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A package of birth control pills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519991/original/file-20230409-6385-i30zeg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A one-month dosage of hormonal birth control pills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The list of contraceptives included in this plan <a href="https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/bc-provides-list-of-birth-control-methods-to-be-covered-6668608">is comprehensive but not exhaustive</a>. Other forms of birth control and menstrual regulation, according to the B.C. government, might be considered in the future. </p>
<p>There seems to be no significant discussion of extending the coverage to B.C. residents who don’t have a provincial health card, such as undocumented residents and migrant workers for whom <a href="https://www.alternateroutes.ca/index.php/ar/article/view/22448">reproductive rights</a> are already sometimes inaccessible. </p>
<p>And accessibility will be dependent upon pharmacists’ willingness to dispense medication, something that might be particularly contentious, not to mention time-sensitive with emergency contraception. </p>
<p>Pharmacists are allowed to refuse to stock or dispense medication as a matter of conscience, something that has been a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.2562">barrier for medication abortion access</a> in Canada, especially in rural areas. Yet despite these criticisms, the B.C. plan serves as an example of equitable primary sexual and reproductive health care delivered at the provincial level.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-v-wade-canada-can-respond-to-u-s-bans-by-improving-access-to-abortion-care-here-185827">Roe v. Wade: Canada can respond to U.S. bans by improving access to abortion care here</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Opposition promises in other provinces</h2>
<p>Opposition parties in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan have all promised to implement the <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/access-to-free-birth-control-begins-in-british-columbia-1.6339248">same policy</a> if elected. But at this point, such a commitment really just amounts to a progressive idea in the context of conservative provincial politics, with <a href="https://thecanadaguide.com/data/provincial-premiers/">centre-right parties in power in eight of 10 provinces. </a></p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man is seen in profile under a large golden ceiling light." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519993/original/file-20230409-24-z3gijl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix is seen during a news conference with his provincial counterparts in Vancouver in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This means that the B.C. policy might reflect the uniqueness of the province’s political dynamics and also demonstrates what is possible, given the right political conditions, in the realm of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/722896">reproductive rights</a>. </p>
<p>It’s also reflective of the broader North American <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/14647001221114611">politics of abortion</a>, as the timing of the policy — a campaign promise of the NDP government, elected in 2020 — seems to respond to the reversal of reproductive rights in the United States with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/us/roe-wade-overturned-supreme-court.html">overturn of <em>Roe v. Wade</em> </a> in June 2022.</p>
<p>The end of constitutional protection of the right to abortion in the U.S. created momentum for strengthening abortion policy and reproductive rights in Canada. </p>
<p>In response <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/24/us/politics/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-analysis-roe-wade.html">to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling</a>, the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/abortion-funding-expanded-roe-v-wade-1.6449487">federal Liberal government has increased and sustained commitments to ensuring access to abortion</a> and other areas of sexual and reproductive health and rights.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-help-to-american-women-who-need-abortions-should-inspire-canada-202117">Mexico's help to American women who need abortions should inspire Canada</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reproductive justice</h2>
<p>Much of this work is carried out by organizations like <a href="https://www.actioncanadashr.org/">Action Canada for Sexual Health and Rights</a> and the <a href="https://nafcanada.org/">National Abortion Federation Canada</a>, with advocacy and information campaigns by the <a href="https://www.arcc-cdac.ca/">Abortion Rights Coalition</a>. </p>
<p>All insist that contraception and abortion are both matters of individual autonomy and <a href="https://www.sistersong.net/reproductive-justice">reproductive justice</a>. At the provincial level, <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/quebec-college-of-physicians-announces-new-guidelines-to-make-access-to-abortion-medication-easier-1.5988310">Québec reduced restrictions</a> on the dispensing of mifegymiso, the drug used in medication abortion. Other provinces, including <a href="https://www.thecoast.ca/news-opinion/how-to-get-an-abortion-in-nova-scotia-28911462">Nova Scotia</a>, created abortion self-referral networks.</p>
<p>But the B.C. government’s universal contraception announcement is the most recent positive policy response to the reversal of reproductive rights in the U.S.</p>
<p>Of course not all of the impact of the <em>Dobbs</em> decision on Canada has been positive. In the immediate aftermath of the overturn of <em>Roe</em>, the Manitoba legislature <a href="https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/ndp-bill-for-abortion-clinic-buffer-zones-defeated-in-house-1.5623693">defeated a bill</a> that would have provided buffer zone protection for abortion clinics. </p>
<p>The same organizations that benefit from increased federal funding — and use it to support women and other pregnant people — indicate that Canadian women who used to travel to the U.S. for certain kinds of abortions are finding it more difficult to do so due to increased restrictions and bans on the American side of the border.</p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/07/abortion-pill-ruling-texas-washington/">duelling U.S. court decisions</a> concerning restrictions on mifepristone will only increase this difficulty and limit reproductive rights. </p>
<p>Policies like B.C.’s universal coverage of contraception will help to expand reproductive rights. That’s why it’s such an important decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sea of people carrying pro-choice signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519992/original/file-20230409-16-dgu48i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People march through downtown Atlanta in June 2022 to protest the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ben Gray, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Defending reproductive rights</h2>
<p>On a practical level, funding for contraception has the effect of making birth control available for everyone, with no privilege for those who have private insurance or can afford to pay and no disadvantage for those who have trouble affording it.</p>
<p>But beyond this, public support and payment for contraception serves to normalize birth control, Plan B and sexual health and reproductive rights as a public good and as a matter of public responsibility. </p>
<p>In an age of increased privatization in health care in general, and the increased stigmatization and criminalization surrounding abortion, the B.C. move is a positive step that fully embraces sexual and reproductive health and rights for everyone in post-<em>Roe</em> North America.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Candace Johnson receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).</span></em></p>British Columbia’s move to provide free contraceptives is a positive step that fully embraces sexual and reproductive health and rights for everyone in post-Roe North America.Candace Johnson, Professor of Political Science, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2009802023-03-07T21:06:24Z2023-03-07T21:06:24ZCanada’s decision to ban TikTok from government devices is bad news for the NDP’s election strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513814/original/file-20230306-20-clb2d3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5455%2C3628&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to ban TikTok on all federal government-issued devices follows similar government bans in the United States at the federal and state levels.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-s-decision-to-ban-tiktok-from-government-devices-is-bad-news-for-the-ndp-s-election-strategy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, the most prolific Canadian politician on TikTok with almost 900,000 followers, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-deactivate-tiktok-security-1.6762916">has deactivated his profile</a> in a move that will undermine his party’s attempts to engage with young voters through social media.</p>
<p>On Feb. 27, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-mobile-apps-canada-government-united-states-justin-trudeau-43b27a80a1c2bf3b55e5ccf2ce573684">announced TikTok would be banned on all federal-issued government devices</a> due to security concerns over the Chinese-owned platform. </p>
<p>Trudeau’s decision follows similar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/20/us-tiktok-bans-university-campuses">bans in the United States</a> by governments at the federal and state level, and numerous universities last December.</p>
<p>Singh has characterized his deactivation as “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2023/02/27/pierre-poilievre-jagmeet-singh-take-tiktok-hiatus-amid-government-ban-over-privacy-concerns.html">taking a pause</a>” from the app, leaving open the possibility of reactivating his TikTok account in the future once the security concerns are addressed.</p>
<p>But in the meantime, a government ban on TikTok poses significant challenges for politicians and political parties, like Singh and the NDP, that use the platform for digital strategy within a permanent campaign model.</p>
<h2>TikTok and the permanent campaign</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/P/bo70027855.html">permanent campaign</a> is an election campaign approach where politicians and their staff apply election tactics to everyday governance to continuously appeal to the public for support. </p>
<p>As part of their shift towards permanent campaigning, the NDP began hiring digital consultants, market researchers and public relations experts in 2000 to <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2019/10/lessons-learned/">professionalize the party</a>.</p>
<p>TikTok was an important element of the NDP’s permanent campaign strategy since the content was designed for Singh to stay visible on the platform in preparation for a snap election. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An Indian man in a pink turban and a suit speaks at a podium in front of a Canadian flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513813/original/file-20230306-1317-h52s7t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh holds a press conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 6, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the 2021 federal election was announced, there were only <a href="https://hkstrategies.ca/en/tiktok-in-canada-effective-political-strategy-or-long-term-play/">11 candidates who had TikTok profiles</a>, eight of whom were NDP candidates.</p>
<p>The NDP invested <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-the-ndp-strong-on-tiktok-but-weak-on-the-ground/">significant resources</a> in building Singh’s TikTok presence, hoping platform virality would translate into future votes. </p>
<h2>Singh’s TikTok celebrity</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A TikTok screenshot of an Indian man in a pink turban pointing upwards to text that says 'Who am I in it for? The environment.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1337&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513806/original/file-20230306-20-p4ed7r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1337&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s ‘Nope Yup’ TikTok posted on Oct. 17, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(TikTok)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Singh launched his TikTok in August 2019 before the platform exploded in popularity in North America during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>His second video, posted days before the October 2019 federal election, featured Singh promoting the NDP’s platform using the viral <a href="https://tiktokmerch.com/blogs/tiktok-trends/nope-yup-choices-trend-tiktok">Nope Yup trend</a>. Lip-syncing to the audio, a snippet of the song <em>Choices</em> by E-40, Singh’s TikTok went viral and accumulated almost <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/3kx4jj/people-cant-stop-watching-this-jagmeet-singh-tiktok-meme">175,000 views within 72 hours</a>. </p>
<p>Singh continued using TikTok as a vital component of the NDP’s digital strategy to reach young voters by highlighting the party’s social democratic platform. He posted content on issues ranging from Islamophobia in Canada to instructions on how to pronounce his first name.</p>
<p>His videos frequently used TikTok’s unique features such as audio, trends and challenges. </p>
<p>Singh’s most popular video had over eight million views. The video consisted of Singh using TikTok’s greenscreen function to participate in the <a href="https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/alors-on-danse"><em>Alors on Danse</em> trend</a>. Swaying in front of a group of young adults, text edited onto the video proclaimed: “When they say young people don’t vote but you know they’re going to make history in the next election.” </p>
<p>Singh’s TikTok again went viral, drawing press attention from <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-jagmeet-singh-wants-to-attract-more-young-voters-and-hes-using-tiktok/"><em>The Globe and Mail</em></a>. The <em>Toronto Star</em> proclaimed him a “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/07/05/jagmeet-singh-is-a-tiktok-superstar-heres-what-that-means-for-the-next-election.html">TikTok Superstar</a>.” The popularity of Singh’s TikTok showcased the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/12/jagmeet-singh-the-ex-lawyer-and-tiktok-star-who-could-topple-trudeau">playful persona that contributed to him being cited as the most liked federal party leader</a> in Canada. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A TikTok screenshot of an Indian man in a pink turban and sleeveless sweatshirt dancing in front of a greenscreened video of a group of men dancing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1065&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513801/original/file-20230306-1219-r3p75w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s ‘Alors on Danse’ TikTok posted on July 12, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(TikTok)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The memetic composition of his videos takes advantage of TikTok’s <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/24/1017814/tiktok-algorithm-famous-social-media/">mysterious algorithm</a>, which led to concerns about a lack of substance. Some videos have a gimmicky feel to them, which may be why the NDP’s <a href="https://xfer.ndp.ca/2022/Documents/Campaign_Debrief_Report_2021.pdf">2021 election campaign debrief</a> noted that Singh appeared to be less serious than other federal candidates.</p>
<p>Singh’s TikTok reflected the blurring boundaries between politicians and political influencers. A <a href="https://mediaengagement.org/research/social-media-influencers-and-the-2020-election/">political influencer</a> is an individual who becomes famous on the internet for posting politically oriented content on social media platforms. </p>
<p>Singh used TikTok to comment on events such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-u-s-capitol-riot-shows-civil-unrest-is-todays-major-national-security-threat-152855">January 2021 Capitol riots</a> in a direct manner like other political influencers on the platform — an approach not typically suited to his official role as party leader. </p>
<h2>Government TikTok ban</h2>
<p>The government ban of TikTok on federal devices poses challenges for Singh’s digital outreach within the permanent campaign model. While Singh is active on platforms like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/2021/09/17/its-all-fun-and-games-until-jagmeet-singh-reaches-60000-people-on-twitch.html">Twitch</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-ndp-targets-young-voters-social-media-campaign-1.5982654">Instagram</a>, the lively memetic style of his TikTok is difficult to replicate. </p>
<p>Young adults are increasingly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/21/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-on-other-social-media-sites/">receiving their news on TikTok</a> rather than legacy media outlets. The app is a space where youth are active and Singh’s TikTok content was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20563051231157604">strategically designed to go viral</a> and reach young users, who are vocal about many of the issues Singh supports. </p>
<p>Singh was one of the few politicians trying to reach these potential voters in a language and style they recognize. Singh’s use of TikTok to appeal to a youthful electorate was seen as a long-term investment in future votes. But now the potential impact of TikTok on the NDP’s election campaign strategy is under threat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aidan Moir has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She has no current funding. </span></em></p>NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has deactivated his TikTok profile in a move that will undermine his party’s attempts to engage with young voters through social media.Aidan Moir, Visiting Assistant Professor, Teaching Stream, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906402022-09-27T17:31:56Z2022-09-27T17:31:56ZNot again: Why another federal election may be on the horizon in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486632/original/file-20220926-25-vz2z3y.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7968%2C4914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other as they gather in the House of Commons to pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth in Ottawa on Sept. 15, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-pierre-poilievres-leadership-means-for-the-future-of-the-conservative-party-189845">recent selection of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-next-election-plans-1.6225958">Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will lead the Liberals</a> into the next federal election has started a chain of events that will play out over the next 12 months. </p>
<p>After that Canadians can expect another federal election.</p>
<p>During the past century, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/minority-government">no minority government has lasted three years</a>; most far less. Trudeau’s current minority isn’t likely to break any longevity record.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">confidence-and-supply agreement</a> negotiated earlier this year between the Liberals and NDP was aimed at ensuring the Liberal minority governs to 2025. But the agreement isn’t binding, and it will probably falter sooner rather than later. Both parties will want their independence or else <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-liberals-upbeat-about-new-deal-as-some-warn-of-pitfalls-for-the-junior-partner-1.5830686">Poilievre will depict them as interchangeable</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives will need a year to develop a new policy platform and adjust to their new leader. The result will likely be a more centrist party than the one that elected Poilievre. That’s because the party has to get votes from those who rejected it in 2021 if it hopes to form the next government. </p>
<h2>Avoiding austerity measures</h2>
<p>The new Conservative platform will likely entail a smaller, and smarter, hand for the state, but probably won’t contain slash-and-burn proposals. No party in recent federal elections has advocated austerity measures.</p>
<p>Similarly, provincial election campaigns, such as <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-election-campaign-approaches-after-tories-table-budget-as-platform-1.5881459">in Ontario earlier this year</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-quebec-parties-throw-fiscal-caution-to-the-wind/">currently in Québec</a>, show that parties of all stripes are unwilling to run on a platform that explicitly reduces benefits, or even makes realistic proposals for a balanced budget in the short term. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a blue shirt high-fives another man holding a child." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486816/original/file-20220927-18-qykuq0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">François Legault, head of the Coalition Avenir Québec, greets supporters after casting his ballot in L'Assomption, Que. ahead of the provincial election on Oct. 3.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trudeau’s Liberals will probably shift to the right over the next year, seeking to occupy as much of the political spectrum as possible by squeezing the NDP on the left and the Conservatives on the right. The party will work hard to demonstrate to voters that it is a sound steward of economic prosperity.</p>
<p>Both parties will prioritize urban voters in Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver. Election after election has shown that as long as most ridings in these cities vote Liberal, the party cannot be denied power, either as a majority or minority. </p>
<p>An early move by Conservatives to shore up support in voter-rich Ontario is the hiring of the executive director of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative party, Mike Crase, as the new <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/09/16/poilievre-turns-to-ontario-pc-to-run-federal-conservatives.html">executive director of the federal Conservatives</a>.</p>
<h2>Weak, rudderless?</h2>
<p>Once a year is up, the current minority government may totter on its last legs. That’s because if the Liberals shift to the right, the NDP will have less reason to support the minority government. And Trudeau will likely be loath to be portrayed by Poilievre as being in bed with the NDP. It will be easy for the Conservatives to paint Trudeau as weak, rudderless and only in power due to the NDP. </p>
<p>Once 2023 rolls around, Trudeau will probably be eager to battle the still inexperienced Poilievre. At the same time, the new leader of the opposition will likely savour the opportunity to take on a prime minister seeking a fourth mandate. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Two men, one in blue boxing gear and the other in red, fight in a boxing ring." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486813/original/file-20220927-26-bc6a7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau and Justin Trudeau, then Liberal leader, fight in a charity boxing match in March 2012 in Ottawa. Trudeau stopped Brazeau in the third round.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Neither will have any reason to prefer waiting another two years before seeking a mandate from voters. Like boxers who spar as long as they can, they will be <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/the-faceoff-between-poilievre-and-trudeau-will-be-one-for-the-history-books">keen to strike a knockout punch as soon as the opportunity arises</a>.</p>
<p>The Conservatives and the Liberals will both paint the election as a referendum between stark opposites, even if their election platforms probably won’t be very dissimilar. </p>
<p>With higher interest rates <a href="https://angusreid.org/inflation-bank-of-canada-grocery-prices/">and soaring inflation</a>, all parties will position themselves as guardians of the well-being of the middle class and working Canadians. It is via this guardianship that the parties will seek to differentiate themselves and appeal to specific groups of voters.</p>
<p>In calling another election the Liberals, as the incumbents, would control the exact timing. Of the past five elections, four were held in September or October. Elections during these months permit campaigning during pleasant late summer and early fall weather and don’t interfere with the summer plans of voters. Late spring elections are also common for the same reasons. </p>
<h2>The unknowns</h2>
<p>Of course, in political life there’s always uncertainty. Like his father did, Trudeau might go for <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/trudeaus-third-walk-in-the-snow">a walk in the snow</a> this winter and conclude that 15 years as MP, 10 years as Liberal leader and nearly eight as prime minister is enough. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blonde woman is seen in partial profile as she speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486825/original/file-20220927-26-2rcud8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If so, Trudeau might delay the next election as long as possible to provide time for a successor, such as Chrystia Freeland or Mélanie Joly, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/melanie-joly-justin-trudeau-canada-00058748">to assume the party’s leadership</a>. </p>
<p>Or a scandal might threaten one of the party leaders. </p>
<p>Less likely, but not entirely improbable, is a splintering of the Conservative party along ideological lines. A natural disaster or international events could also change the calculus and delay the next election.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, an election in the fall of 2023 or spring of 2024 is probably what Canadians can expect — or dread.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canadians went to the polls twice in two years, in 2019 and 2021. Here’s why yet another federal election likely looms in the fall of 2023 or the spring of 2024.Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1896132022-09-01T17:01:11Z2022-09-01T17:01:11ZWhy does Pierre Poilievre appeal to young Canadians? It’s all about economics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482307/original/file-20220901-15-gxmb4s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C4437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre poses for photographs with supporters at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver in April 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pierre Poilievre’s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/08/27/pierre-poilievre-is-poised-to-become-the-next-conservative-leader-and-young-voters-are-suddenly-interested-in-his-party.html">appeal to young voters</a>, something of a novelty for Canadian Conservative politicians, raises questions about both his popularity and the ability of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) to capitalize on the trend over the long term. </p>
<p>Why has Poilievre, unlike his recent predecessors, been successful at gaining support among younger voters, and what impact could this have on the CPC’s electoral coalition?</p>
<p>Conventional political wisdom holds that age has a lot to do with political ideology — while young adults are likely to be liberal, many will become increasingly conservative as they age. In some ways, this is an exaggerated cliché. </p>
<p>Direct measurements of political attitudes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/706889">more often find that a person’s propensity to be either conservative or liberal is stable over time</a>, regardless of age. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, this conventional wisdom was evident when it came to voting behaviour in Canada. From 2015 to 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada was the most popular choice <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-are-winning-over-older-normally-conservative-voters/">for Canadian voters over 55</a>, and the Conservatives fell behind the Liberals and the NDP among voters under the age of 34.</p>
<p>Historically, this has hurt the Conservatives while also helping progressive or left-leaning candidates. An influx of support from young voters, for example, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-2015-1.3636290">played a decisive role in Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory in 2015</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a burgundy T-shirt talks to three young people, a boxing ring behind him and a trainer beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482308/original/file-20220901-4165-9rbk6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks with youths as a boxing trainer looks on during a campaign stop in Montréal in September 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trudeau is losing young voters</h2>
<p>But the voting behaviour of young voters is highly volatile when it comes to both turnout and party preference. Since 2015, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/as-millennials-fall-out-of-love-with-trudeau-liberals-need-to-stop-the-bleed-towards-the-ndp">Trudeau’s Liberals have lost most of their support among young voters</a> as younger Canadians either supported other parties, became undecided or stopped voting entirely.</p>
<p>Currently, most voters under 34 are, as with most other Canadians, likely to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-is-shedding-support-among-dislocated-younger-voters-1.1767474">express a lack of confidence in the performance of Trudeau as prime minister</a>. </p>
<p>Most youth support between 2015 and 2021 has instead gone to the NDP and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-jagmeet-singh-wants-to-attract-more-young-voters-and-hes-using-tiktok/">By deliberately targeting the demographic</a> through its policy and social media campaigns, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-who-leads-among-young-voters-the-ndp/">the party was the clear favourite of young voters in the 2019 and 2021 elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a pink turban sits among a row of young people listening to someone speak off-camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482309/original/file-20220901-13-8wd3z0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh listens to youth speak about their experiences during a campaign stop in Toronto in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, however, much of this youth support for the Liberals and NDP now appears to be shifting again. For the first time since the 1980s, recent polls show that a <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-young-people-seem-to-be-leaning-tory-possibly-for-the-first-time-ever">plurality, although not a majority, of young voters now support the Conservative Party</a>. </p>
<p>This has been mostly attributed to Poilievre who, more than his rivals for the party leadership, has generated much of this enthusiasm.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1563594383651287041"}"></div></p>
<h2>Poilievre’s electoral edge?</h2>
<p>It’s possible these polls could shift before the next federal election, likely in 2025. But they nonetheless raise the possibility of a novel electoral advantage that a Poilievre-led Conservative party could bring to the next several federal votes. </p>
<p>Poilievre’s growing popularity among young voters is likely due to how he’s seized upon an opening by providing coherent messaging that addresses the general state of dissatisfaction and the economic anxieties that are weighing on young Canadians. </p>
<p>That includes continuing frustrations about the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/half-of-canadians-under-30-have-given-up-on-owning-a-single-family-home-survey-1.5699344">inaccessibility of home ownership</a>, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/08/06/paycheque-to-paycheque-inflation-is-hitting-low-income-canadians-hard.html">income instability and inflation</a>. </p>
<p>The continuing detrimental economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/11/30/young-adults-hit-hard-by-pandemics-economic-impact-survey-suggests.html">have also affected this demographic the most</a>, contributing to perceptions of a <a href="https://thehub.ca/2021-05-21/ben-woodfinden-homeowners-will-soon-be-our-new-aristocracy/">growing divide</a> between older, economically established generations and younger adults. </p>
<p>This has also created a popular feeling among many young voters that the Trudeau government needs to be replaced. </p>
<p>In addition to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-election-missteps-factbox-idUSKBN1W422D">series of missteps and scandals</a> that have eroded Trudeau’s personal popularity, the government is also perceived as being unable to deal with these growing economic concerns.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a yellow turban shakes hands with another man. Both are smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482317/original/file-20220901-4342-pgqjye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-ndp-accord-confidence-supply-agreement-1.6397985">the NDP entered into an agreement with the Liberals</a> allowing them to deliver on beneficial policies like dental-care coverage, the party is now limited in its ability to craft and convey a coherent alternative to the Liberal government. </p>
<p>This is even though New Democrats have, along with Poilievre, been engaging in populist attacks about economic elites for not <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-calls-action-make-rich-and-powerful-pay-their-fair-share">“paying their fair share.”</a> The NDP’s ongoing support for the Liberals has come at the cost of credibly tapping into a growing anti-Liberal sentiment by compromising their position as a principled adversary — giving Poilievre yet another opening to electoral success.</p>
<p>In contrast, Poilievre offers a coherent, semi-populist appeal that prioritizes these problems, provides a common cause or enemy and proposes solutions within Conservative policies.</p>
<h2>Attacking the elites</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/fire_the_gatekeepers">Poilievre has identified a set of “gatekeepers”</a> that include all-powerful interests and established voices in Canadian public life as the source of these problems, including progressive urbanites, government bureaucrats and financial elites. In working to maintain their privilege, says Poilievre, these gatekeepers have compromised the opportunities available to ordinary Canadians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529920481423413253"}"></div></p>
<p>Recalibrating these existing institutions to align with a renewed desire for <a href="https://www.pierre4pm.ca/poilievre_would_protect_free_speech_from_gatekeepers">“freedom” is presented as the solution</a>, allowing Poilievre to repackage and legitimize conventional conservative emphases on free markets, deregulation and small government. </p>
<p>His platform’s appeal lies in the fact that it’s simultaneously coherent enough to appeal to Conservative partisans and, at the same time, vague enough to allow young voters to apply their own dissatisfaction or economic anxiety through this gatekeeper/freedom narrative.</p>
<p>Poilievre’s momentum among younger people, if maintained, could bring the CPC a notable electoral advantage in the next election. But given the fact it’s derived from an anti-Liberal sentiment, it’s difficult to determine if it will have a long-term impact. </p>
<p>The party may struggle to retain young voters in the years ahead, likely because younger Canadians care about issues that the Conservatives perform poorly on, like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/05/19/youth-focused-on-affordability-climate-in-this-election-future-majority.html">climate change and social equity</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s also possible a much deeper and structural change among younger voters is afoot that is making them more conservative, both economically and socially.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503">As scholars of populism have argued</a>, the significant economic, social, demographic and technological changes of the last decade have produced a state of displacement and uncertainty that’s pushing emerging adults into conservative politics. If so, it’s good news for Poilievre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pierre Poilievre’s momentum among young Canadians, if maintained, could bring the Conservative Party of Canada a notable electoral advantage in the next election.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1847132022-06-19T12:50:53Z2022-06-19T12:50:53Z3 challenges facing the Ontario NDP as it tries to win more support<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468801/original/file-20220614-17-33a7ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C2868%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath wipes a tear as she announces her resignation in Hamilton, Ont., in June 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tara Walton</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-election-results-ndp-andrea-horwath/">The results of the 2022 Ontario provincial election</a> were a devastating setback for the New Democrats, involving a loss of votes, seats and support among important demographic groups. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/andrea-horwath-resigns-as-ndp-party-leader-after-ontario-election-1.5930696">resignation of leader Andrea Horwath</a>, the party is now at an important moment. In the coming years, the NDP — the main electoral arm of the left in Ontario — has to decide its direction and what role it wants to play in the province’s electoral dynamics.</p>
<p>The NDP has always been in an awkward position in Ontario. Although it emerged out of Canada’s labour and progressive traditions, it has struggled to find its place, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/orange-shockwave-how-ontario-got-its-first-ever-ndp-government">forming a government only once</a> during particularly unstable period of the late 1980s and early 1990s that saw successive governments from all three parties. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, it has maintained a somewhat stable presence in Ontario politics. Despite an inconsistent seat count, <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/en/results-overview">the NDP on average has held onto about 20 per cent of the popular vote</a>. It comes second place in Ontario elections fairly regularly, typically by surpassing the Liberals in popular vote and seat count. </p>
<p>Given a Liberal party that has yet to recover from the unpopularity of the Kathleen Wynne government, this is the position the party currently finds itself in <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/06/02/opposition-between-ndp-liberal-party/">as official opposition in the Ontario legislature</a> after Doug Ford won a second majority on June 2.</p>
<h2>Ideology vs electability</h2>
<p>Part of the electoral consideration for the New Democrats is oriented around the perennial tension between ideological dedication and political expediency. </p>
<p>It has two choices. First, it can offer a principled opposition that is highly unlikely to form a government. Second, it can present a more electorally viable party that, in addition to overlapping with other parties, will be unable to reform the province’s political and economic institutions. </p>
<p>Historically, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Co-operative-Commonwealth-Federation">the party’s origins in the Canadian Co-operative Federation (CCF)</a> resulted in a commitment to major reforms pertaining to the interests of the working class, greater co-operative control over the relations of economic production, social justice and the expansion of the welfare state. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pro-public health signs are held by nurses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468981/original/file-20220615-25-rltwyf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nurses holds signs as they stand at a campaign event with Horwath in Ottawa in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In doing so, it formed a base around the <a href="https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/291/328">support of organized labour</a> and <a href="https://www.cp24.com/yourvote/liberal-and-ndp-fight-over-progressive-voters-with-campaign-in-home-stretch-1.5920218">educated, middle-class metropolitan voters with progressive beliefs</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the party has been more likely to campaign on a more <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-ndp-platform-pharmacare-drug-coverage-1.6428390">moderate, left-of-centre set of policy commitments directed at middle-class voters</a> that emphasize equality, affordability, economic growth and greater access to social services.</p>
<p>But this now presents challenges. A concentrated effort from the Conservatives to win over the support of private sector unions has hurt the New Democrats, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/ontario-election/ben-woodfinden-doug-fords-blue-collar-election-victory-could-reshape-conservatism">suggesting that a significant electoral realignment in Ontario may be under way</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the party competes with the Liberals and the Greens <a href="https://www.cp24.com/yourvote/liberal-and-ndp-fight-over-progressive-voters-with-campaign-in-home-stretch-1.5920218">for control over progressive social issues, in addition to the left-of-centre policy proposals that best connect with suburban voters</a>. </p>
<p>Moving forward, the party will have to grapple with their response to three trends. </p>
<h2>1. Appealing to the working class</h2>
<p>The first concerns the question of what to do with their conventional working-class support or, more precisely, the more historic dynamics of class-based politics. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/New-Democratic-Party-political-party">NDP originally emerged as the party of the working class</a>, advancing their interests against what were believed to be unjust economic and political institutions. But the growth of the middle class and general prosperity under liberal, capitalist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.43">institutions has made these identities less important to electoral outcomes</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives, therefore, have gained the support of workers by promising <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/ontario-election/ben-woodfinden-doug-fords-blue-collar-election-victory-could-reshape-conservatism">continued economic growth and investments in infrastructure</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with slicked back blonde/grey hair shakes hands with construction workers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468982/original/file-20220615-21-9vgk9m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford greets workers at a construction site in Brampton, Ont. in May.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nevertheless, there is some ground to gain here for New Democrats if they can provide solutions for current economic anxieties like <a href="https://irpp.org/research-studies/income-inequality-in-canada/">rising income inequality</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-inflation-april-1.6457520">inflation</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8843092/ontario-election-housing-affordability-report/">housing unaffordability</a> while pointing to the limits of the growth-oriented model offered by the Conservatives. </p>
<p>Jagmeet Singh, the federal NDP leader, has already incorporated this into his electoral appeal to some extent, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8151715/jagmeet-singh-billionaires-promises-corporate-tax-loopholes/">drawing a distinction between the “people” and the “ultra-rich.”</a> But there is little evidence that enough of Ontario supports the NDP in this area, particularly given the fact that the Liberals also offer an alternative to the Conservatives in economic policy. </p>
<h2>2. Grappling with social justice issues</h2>
<p>The second trend pertains to social justice. Given voters are less inclined to vote based on economics, this <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1962590">emphasis on values</a> like equality, tolerance, environmentalism and free individual expression <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1962590">has become a priority of left-wing politics</a>. </p>
<p>Recent events linked to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7632579/canada-systemic-racism-foundation/">systemic racism</a>, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/on-indigenous-issues-ontarios-big-four-parties-fall-short">Indigenous self-determination</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-storm-climate-change-election-1.6463877">climate change</a> have made these issues particularly important for some voters.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman steps off a campaign bus that says Change for the Better on the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468987/original/file-20220615-15-7f2yrx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Horwath arrives for a rally in Paris, Ont., during the 2018 provincial election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Colin Perkel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this is another area where the NDP competes with the Liberals and Greens. This often results in political parties one-upping each other as they focus on appearing the most socially progressive. </p>
<p>They do so by devoting more attention to these topics <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/courage">in campaign communications</a>, in addition to promising more spending and government-sponsored programs to address issues pertaining to social justice.</p>
<p>But this may turn off other demographics, such as suburban middle-class voters more concerned about <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8784454/health-care-pocketbook-issues-among-top-priorities-for-ontario-voters-ipsos-poll/">short-term, “pocketbook” economic issues</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Leadership</h2>
<p>Finally, there is the importance of leadership to the NDP’s electoral appeal. </p>
<p>Given how central leaders are to Canadian politics, the party could deprioritize policy and, instead, place all bets on the popularity of their leader. It could focus on creating the perception of a trustworthy, honest and morally decent option compared to other party leaders, who may be viewed by voters as self-interested and concerned only with electoral expediency. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A man with a moustache wears a red Canada beanie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468992/original/file-20220615-26-bkbst5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Layton takes a break from a skate on the Rideau Canal in Ottawa in February 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423913000875">Jack Layton was successful at this</a>. He was perceived to be trustworthy by many Canadians, and his moderate, left-of-centre platform appealed to middle-class voters across the country. </p>
<p>But here again, the Ontario NDP must consider what it wants to be, because even with a popular leader, it’s part of a crowded field of left-of-centre political parties both provincially and federally. A leader-driven NDP risks becoming indistinguishable from the other parties. </p>
<p>Even with her high personal approval ratings, this is a limitation Horwath could never fully overcome. Nevertheless, given a weak provincial Liberal Party, if the NDP chooses a dynamic leader in the coming years, it could form a government and further establish itself as the most popular alternative to the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario.</p>
<p>With a new leader and a renewed commitment to a left-wing policy platform that addresses both economic needs and social justice, it’s possible the party could earn a solid, respectable place in Ontario as a voice of opposition — and give it a chance at victory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Ontario NDP is at a crossroads. It has to decide its direction and what role it wants to play in the province’s electoral dynamics.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689942021-10-12T19:19:02Z2021-10-12T19:19:02ZCanada’s worrisome urban-rural political divide has never been greater<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426030/original/file-20211012-27-rh3esu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4849%2C3343&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau harvests broccoli at the Ottawa Food Bank Farm on Canada Day 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After all the ballots were counted in the recent Canadian federal election, was anyone surprised that <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7853207/canada-election-long-range-mountains-2021/">Gudie Hutchings, incumbent Liberal MP in the district of Long Range Mountains, Newfoundland and Labrador, had been re-elected</a>? </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a pink scarf with a blue binder under her arm speaks to a man in a blue suit." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425762/original/file-20211011-19-1wnf1ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gudie Hutchings chats with Liberal cabinet minister Ahmed Hussen in Steady Brook, Newfoundland and Labrador.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After all, western Newfoundland has been a Liberal stronghold since the days of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/newfoundland-and-labrador-elections-can-joey-smallwood-be-defeated">Joey Smallwood</a>. Nevertheless, Hutchings has become something of an endangered species: a rural Liberal MP.</p>
<p>In 2021, the Liberal caucus was thoroughly urban, its members drawn by the dozen from Canada’s largest cities. By land area, fully 87 per cent of ridings the Liberals won in 2021 could fit comfortably within the borders of Hutchings’ Switzerland-sized constituency.</p>
<h2>Urban/rural concentration</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/urban/2/">paper soon to be published in the <em>Canadian Journal of Political Science</em></a>, we investigate how support for the major political parties has been concentrated in urban or rural areas through time. Our first step was to develop a way to consistently score each of Canada’s more than 4,000 historical federal electoral districts on an urban-rural scale. We then use this new measure to explore when the major parties developed urban or rural vote-share advantages. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a graph illustrates the urban/rural divide in party support." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425326/original/file-20211007-25-1fd1std.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The urban-rural divide in party support. Parties above the zero-line are disproportionately urban; those below the zero-line are disproportionately rural. The shaded areas represent error margins. When both the line and its shaded area are above or below zero, we can say with confidence that the party’s vote share tilts urban or rural.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jack Lucas and Zack Taylor)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What did we find? A steadily widening urban-rural divide in support for the Liberals and Conservatives since the early 1990s. </p>
<p>A longer historical view shows that while smaller gaps emerged between the two parties in the 1920s and again in the 1960s and ’70s, the urban-rural gap between the two parties was greater in the 2019 and 2021 elections than at any point in Canada’s history. </p>
<p>After the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyyI6s1abqE">Progressive Conservatives joined with the Canadian Alliance</a> in 2003, the new Conservative Party inherited the Reform-Alliance rural base. Aside from 2011, when the Conservative Party picked up more urban seats around the greater Toronto area, the divide only expanded. </p>
<h2>The Liberals, not the NDP, are the urban party</h2>
<p>Think of the New Democratic Party today, and you may conjure an image of a “downtowner” party rooted in the latte and laptop crowd. But this image is incorrect: the NDP has never been a distinctively urban party in Canada. </p>
<p>This is because the party has continuously held seats in rural resource industry communities in places like northern Ontario and the B.C. Interior, balancing out its seats in large urban centres. In fact, NDP support was most urban in the distant days of the early 1960s, when its seats were concentrated in labour-friendly communities in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Hamilton and Toronto. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="NDP leader Jagmeet Singh crosses the road at a rainbow crosswalk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425765/original/file-20211011-13-n3d7e9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh crosses the road at a rainbow crosswalk during a campaign stop in Vancouver, B.C., in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Liberal party, not the NDP, is Canada’s unequivocally urban party, and it has been for a long time.</p>
<p>In short, our research shows that the urban-rural divide in support for Canada’s major parties has been around for generations, but has dramatically intensified over the past 25 years. The urban-rural divide predicts election outcomes more strongly today than at any previous point in our history. </p>
<p>This is worrisome for several reasons. As parties become durably uncompetitive on each others’ turf, they lose touch with the concerns of significant portions of the population. Recruitment of talented candidates who are connected to local communities becomes more difficult. </p>
<p>The portion of each party’s caucus that comes from safe seats increases. As the parties increasingly represent different social and economic worlds and speak different policy languages, conflicts will only become more entrenched. </p>
<h2>American-style polarization ahead?</h2>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/21/upshot/america-political-divide-urban-rural.html">causes of urban-rural polarization</a> are likely different south of the border, the United States’ <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/">highly conflict-ridden politics</a> represent a possible future for Canada. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black-and-white photo of a man talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425768/original/file-20211011-14-1um2sey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=883&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Diefenbaker is seen in this February 1963 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the other hand, history shows that change is possible. After decades of Liberal dominance, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/allan-levine-the-defining-canadian-political-blockbuster-50-years-later">John Diefenbaker</a> assembled a new majority coalition of Conservative supporters in 1958 that differed from before. He combined rural Prairie ridings that had previously supported the Progressive Conservative and Social Credit parties and rural Québec ridings that traditionally voted Liberal with new urban support in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto and Montréal. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/brian-mulroney-wins-stunning-landslide-victory-in-1984-1.4675926">Brian Mulroney</a> did the same in 1984. And not so long ago, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-2011-election-anniversary-1.6007145">Stephen Harper</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/05/03/ndps_orange_wave_sweeps_across_canada.html">Jack Layton</a> managed to temporarily disrupt the trend toward the urban-rural polarization we identify — Harper pushed into urban regions while Layton had surprising victories in rural Québec.</p>
<p>Disadvantaged parties always have an incentive to reconfigure the playing field by creatively building unanticipated coalitions. But the leader who succeeds in disrupting the status quo must overcome a powerful long-term trend in the other direction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zack Taylor receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lucas receives funding from SSHRC. </span></em></p>Canada’s urban/rural divide in terms of party support is increasingly pronounced. The leader who succeeds in building new support must overcome a powerful long-term trend.Zack Taylor, Associate Professor of Political Science, Western UniversityJack Lucas, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1689172021-10-03T12:58:38Z2021-10-03T12:58:38ZWhy the NDP missed the boat in Québec during the federal election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424245/original/file-20211001-13-1x80ht.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C47%2C3524%2C2138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh during a visit to Québec City on Sept. 3. During the campaign, he didn't show that he really understood Québec issues. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/">The 2021 federal election did not end the status quo in Parliament</a>, but by winning another minority government, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party has gained at least two more years to forge the country in its image.</p>
<p>To the left of the Liberals, the <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/election-2021/election-2021-results-green-party-delivered-setback-at-ballot-box-losing-mp-in-faltering-of-support">Green Party has been fragmented</a> and the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-singh-says-hes-confident-he-will-remain-ndp-leader-despite-lack-of/">NDP is treading water</a>.</p>
<p>Even though the Liberal campaign got off to a bad start, the party has withstood the wear and tear of being in power since 2015, and its opponents aren’t ready to start campaigning again. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/">NDP increased its proportion of the vote in the 2021 federal election to 17.7 per cent from 15.9 per cent</a>. It increased its number of MPs from 24 to 25. However, these figures are a far cry from the growth experienced when <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/jacklayton">Jack Layton</a> was leader. </p>
<p>In Québec, the party’s vote slipped to 9.8 per cent in 2021 from 10.7 per cent in 2019. Former NDP leader <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Mulcair">Thomas Mulcair</a> was shown the door after receiving 25.4 per cent of the vote in Québec in 2015.</p>
<h2>Regionalism in Canada</h2>
<p>Canadian politics is highly regionalized, and it is a major challenge for political parties to frame their messages in a way that can be adapted across Canada’s regions.</p>
<p>The framing problem has been a persistent one for the NDP in Québec since 2016. The party is in decline, struggling to attract significant local stars or support. Only <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-orange-wave-10-years-on-1.6179673">Québec MP Alexandre Boulerice</a> is more popular than his party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Jagmeet Singh and Alexandre Boulerice" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423028/original/file-20210923-26-2sqsep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh with Alexandre Boulerice in 2019. He is once again the only NDP MP elected in Québec, and is more popular than his party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even in Laurier Ste-Marie, a left-leaning riding held by the NDP from 2011 to 2018, the party was unable to defeat Liberal <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/central-montreal-ridings-leaning-liberal-with-one-exception">Steven Guilbeault</a>.</p>
<p>What explains the NDP’s difficulties in Québec?</p>
<p>The answer is obviously a combination of factors. The NDP has little control over some of these, and more control over others. But the party still needs to do some serious introspection.</p>
<h2>The dynamics of the party system</h2>
<p>The first factor working against the NDP is the dynamics of the Canadian party system. The Liberals are seen as the natural alternative to the Conservatives, so voters fall back on them to block the Conservatives. This is the power of the first-past-the-post system.</p>
<p>The fear of a Conservative government was very real during this election. Polls showed the Conservatives in the lead during the second third of the campaign. The prospect of a Conservative government may have encouraged voters who were previously tempted to vote for the NDP to return to the safe haven of the Liberal Party instead.</p>
<p>On a longer historical scale, the NDP’s 42.9 per cent in Québec in 2011 came in the wake of the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/sponsorship-program-and-advertising-activities-gomery-inquiry-commission-of-inquiry-into">sponsorship scandal</a> that hurt the Liberal brand in Québec. This result is therefore not the barometer that should be used to assess the NDP’s performance in Québec. However, one might wonder why the party is performing below the national level. One should take into consideration that the early 2000s were lean years in Québec: the party garnered 4.5 per cent of the vote in 2004, 7.5 per cent in 2006 and 12.2 per cent in 2008, before climbing to 42.9 per cent in 2011.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Candidate Ruth Ellen Brosseau in front of leader Singh" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423027/original/file-20210923-25-csizpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP candidate Ruth Ellen Brosseau at a press conference with party leader Jagmeet Singh on Aug. 29 in the Mauricie riding of Berthier-Maskinongé. After hours of close competition, Brosseau lost for a second time to Bloc Québécois leader Yves Perron.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The effects of polarization</h2>
<p>The trajectory of the campaign is another variable to consider in explaining the NDP’s difficulty in pulling ahead in 2021. By making the fight against COVID-19 the central issue of the campaign, the Liberals polarized the situation with the Conservatives, leaving little room for the other parties. Assault rifles were a second issue that framed the campaign, and forced the other players out of the picture.</p>
<p>Then there was the now infamous question put to Yves-François Blanchet by the moderator of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bloc-debate-reaction-1.6176663">English debate</a>. In Québec, this polarized the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. The leader of the Bloc had a lot of capital for outrage that he was ready to use, and he managed to build on this until the end of the campaign. </p>
<p>The data <a href="https://ahlessondages.blogspot.com/2021/09/objects-may-be-closer-than-they-appeared.html">compiled by Claire Durand of Université de Montréal</a> clearly shows a rise for the Bloc in the seven days following “the question.” <a href="https://queenscitizen.ca/2021/09/22/question-on-racism-in-quebec-unfair-hysteria-says-angus-reed/">Despite the conclusions of Angus Reid</a>, who made unfair comparisons between the Bloc’s performance in 2019 and 2021, this was a turning point for the Bloc campaign in Québec, as Blanchet’s earlier attempts to bring the issues of identity or secularism into the campaign had been unsuccessful. </p>
<p>It was difficult for the NDP to come out on top in any of these polarizing issues. However, the party would have had more room to manoeuvre and credibility on the third issue if some of its MPs had not conveyed such a simplistic vision of Québec society <a href="https://thecanadian.news/2021/03/24/the-ndp-criticized-from-all-sides-in-the-case-of-professor-attaran/">during the year leading up to the campaign</a>. This made it easy for some political scientists in Québec to portray the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/green-1.5961593">NDP as a cluster of Québec-bashing MPs</a>. </p>
<h2>Federalist-sovereign opposition?</h2>
<p>The NDP has often explained its low popularity in Québec by the importance of the sovereignist vote. However, this explanation does little to explain the party’s current marginalization. Support for sovereignty <a href="https://montreal.citynews.ca/2020/10/28/how-would-quebecs-separatist-movement-fare-in-a-referendum-today/">has been declining since 1995 and is not what it used to be among young voters</a>. Even among Québec Solidaire voters, roughly 50 per cent do not share the resolutely pro-independence orientation of party leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and his inner circle.</p>
<p>So while the dynamics of the party system and polarizing campaign explain part of the NDP’s weakness in Québec, the sovereignist vote explains it much less. On the other hand, four factors could have favoured the NDP: the collapse of the Green Party, the slight decline in the popularity of the Liberals, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-third-link-bloc-conservatives-liberals-environment-suburbs-1.6164693">the Bloc Québécois’ support for tunnel project linking Québec City and Lévis</a> and the declining appeal of the sovereignist option in Québec. But the party did not benefit from these. Why not?</p>
<h2>Layton and the Sherbrooke Declaration</h2>
<p>The NDP’s good years in Québec were not just the result of the sponsorship scandal. As <a href="https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/ps/1900-v1-n1-ps05551/1072089ar/abstract/">my colleague David McGrane and I have shown</a>, two other factors also played a role: First, the adherence of the party’s potential voters in Québec and the Québec MNAs to the principles of the <a href="https://mronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Declaration_Sherbrooke_ENG_V2.pdf">Sherbrooke Declaration</a>, and, second, the ability of Layton, and later Mulcair, to embody the spirit of that declaration.</p>
<p>The Sherbrooke Declaration made a clean break from the centralizing spirit that has characterized the history of the NDP in Québec. It went much further in recognizing the legitimacy of the social and cultural struggles being waged by some nationalists in Québec.</p>
<p>Moreover, Layton and Mulcair both had long experiences with Québec society. They knew they couldn’t merely recite the articles of the Sherbrooke Declaration, but had to embody the spirit and subtleties that are part of Canadian and Québec politics. It is essential to quickly understand what territory needs to be occupied, and what can’t be conceded to other parties.</p>
<p>In 2011, Layton’s appearance on Québec’s popular TV show “Tout le monde en parle” <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/entertainment/jack-layton-to-appear-on-radio-canadas-tout-le-monde-en-parle-on-sunday">was a home run</a>. Singh’s preparation for the show earlier this year was ordinary by comparison. </p>
<p>Both of these elements of the Layton era have been missing from the NDP since 2016. The feeling that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-npd-a-t-il-deja-concede-le-quebec-158672">NDP had already conceded Québec was palpable</a>, long before the 2021 campaign began.</p>
<h2>Missed opportunities</h2>
<p>During the campaign, Singh missed several opportunities to embody the spirit of the Sherbrooke Declaration. He did not even hint at it during the commemoration of the 10th anniversary of Layton’s death at the beginning of the campaign. The leader poorly navigated the predictable issues of respect for provincial jurisdiction. If he had made these mistakes during his first campaign, they could have been blamed on inexperience. But they are harder to justify in a second campaign.</p>
<p>It is very difficult to understand why the NDP organization has put the concept of federalism, the most important legacy of the Layton period, on hold. Behind the scenes, the word is that the best organizers of the Layton era have left the party to work for the provincial wings of the NDP, which have been successful in Western Canada. If we add this to the lack of any references to Québec in the Broadbent Institute’s principles for the <a href="https://www.broadbentinstitute.ca/principles">renewal of social democracy</a>, and the fact that the NDP’s youth wing ran only presidential candidates who didn’t understand French, it is easy to measure the growing abyss between the NDP and Québec’s francophone federalist leftists. </p>
<p>If the party didn’t have an advantage in Québec, its national organization and current leadership must be held responsible for this failure. Its lack of vision and political acumen in Québec help explain why former federalist NDP voters voted instead for the Liberals or even the Bloc Québécois, and not for a party where they felt misunderstood.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168917/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frédérick Guillaume Dufour has been a member of the NPD during the Layton era. </span></em></p>The NDP had disappointing results in Québec during the federal election. The party must do some serious introspection.Frédérick Guillaume Dufour, Professeur en sociologie politique, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676802021-09-13T19:58:38Z2021-09-13T19:58:38ZSeeing red and feeling blue? How emotions are colouring the federal election in unexpected ways<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420907/original/file-20210913-13-1mwy37w.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=93%2C485%2C5063%2C3138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The emotions we attribute to party leaders on the basis of partisan affiliation may no longer hold sway in this federal election.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Emotions occupy a paradoxical place in discussions of politics. They are viewed as the enemy of reason and evidence-based decision-making. At the same time, there is increasing recognition that <a href="https://theconversation.com/persuasive-politics-why-emotional-beats-rational-for-connecting-with-voters-116098">we think <em>with</em> emotion</a>, and that feelings influence the persuasive force of political discourse.</p>
<p>This has been especially evident during the snap federal election campaign, the one that <a href="https://theconversation.com/rhetoric-check-parliament-wasnt-toxic-justin-trudeau-just-wants-a-majority-167245">no one wanted</a>, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8148373/canada-election-polling-unsafe-ipsos-poll/">one that is generating</a> “all the feels.” There are the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19460171.2021.1963793">expected emotions such as grief, anxiety and sadness</a> that surround the COVID-19 pandemic, not to mention fear and apprehension about the fourth wave, about <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-back-to-school-qanda-is-it-safe-for-unvaccinated-children-to-go-to-school-in-person-is-the-harm-of-school-closures-greater-than-the-risk-of-the-virus-166870">unvaccinated children returning to school</a> and the grudging realization that there is no quick return to the “before” times.</p>
<p>But this federal election also feels a bit different. It is not surprising to find opposition parties (<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ipsos-poll-canadian-federal-election-anger-1.6158637">as well as a growing number of Canadians</a>) angrily denouncing Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau for calling an election in the middle of a health crisis.</p>
<p>Anger about the timing of the election is only the tip of the iceberg, however. This pandemic election is shifting the ground in unexpected ways, too. The emotions we attribute to party leaders on the basis of partisan affiliation may no longer hold sway. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trudeau getting on a bus in a crowd of people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420639/original/file-20210912-25-1g7ncu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">RCMP security detail put their hands up to protect Liberal leader Justin Trudeau from rocks as protesters shout and throw gravel as he was leaving a recent campaign stop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take master emoter “Sunny Ways” Trudeau. He’s getting testy as he struggles to stay on message in the face of loud hecklers (and violence) <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/canadas-trudeau-resumes-campaign-after-angry-crowds-disrupt-rallies">disrupting his scheduled campaign stops</a>. A leader once praised for his emotional intelligence — <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-emotional-intelligence-trudeaus-best-skill-pays-dividends">a trait that, until recently, served him well</a> — Trudeau seems to be coming undone. In the English leaders’ debate just last week, despite exhorting Canadians to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-protests-campaign-ontario-1.6156324">meet anger with compassion</a> and projecting an image of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743923X2000029X">protective masculinity</a>, Trudeau lost both <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-annamie-pauls-shredding-of-trudeau-on-feminism-and-afghanistan-was-impressive">his cool and his compassion</a> when challenged by Green Party Leader Annamie Paul on his feminist credentials.</p>
<p>For some politicians, this might elicit a shrug, or a vow to do better; for leaders like Trudeau, this is a body blow, a shock to a shirt-sleeves-rolled-up kind of leader who trades on his uncanny ability to radiate positivity and good cheer wherever he goes. </p>
<p>This is the same “Teflon Trudeau” who sashayed across the stage with the (now ghosted) do-gooder Kielburger brothers, the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-we-charity-scandal-white-saviourism-144331">white saviours</a>” who spread their feel-good gospel of charity work in developing countries.</p>
<h2>Opposition opportunity</h2>
<p>That Trudeau is losing his emotional grip on the Canadian public might lead one to assume that this is an ideal opportunity for opposition parties to pounce. Third parties in Canada tend to produce their best electoral results <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0010414004268847">in moments replete with voter resentment and alienation</a>, providing an emotional release for disaffected voters wishing to signal their dissatisfaction.</p>
<p>But for now, the third-party surge has been, well, slow to swell. After reviving the Bloc Québecois in 2019, leader Yves-François Blanchet <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/legault-slams-question-federal-debate-1.6171628">has waited until the final days</a> to inject life into a campaign that should have been brimming with nationalistic fervour from the get-go. Blanchet and highly popular Québec Premier François Legault <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/quebec-premier-praises-tory-leader-otoole-says-npd-liberals-dangerous-for-quebec">do not seem to be on the same page</a>, which is only adding confusion to the mix. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh waving in the doorway of his campaign bus." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420641/original/file-20210912-22-18lwg6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh waves as he gets on his campaign bus in Burnaby, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even more surprising has been the lacklustre New Democratic Party. At a time in which optimism, passion and bold policy innovation are sorely needed, the party has failed to mobilize its “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/laytons-last-words-love-is-better-than-anger-hope-is-better-than-fear/article617801/">hope over fear</a>” rallying cries popularized by late leader Jack Layton. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has focused instead on <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/8158579/canada-election-ndps-singh-comments-on-liberal-candidate-continuing-to-run-despite-misconduct-allegations">attacking Liberal hypocrisy</a> and proposing <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/ndp-and-conservatives-better-positioned-to-respond-to-canadians-top-election-concerns-poll-suggests">familiar and restrained promises</a> such as student debt relief and a national pharmacare program. </p>
<p>Paul, for her part, has had to contend with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-emergency-meeting-reaction-1.6068280?fbclid=IwAR2C68e9_YkZkKbcl9M5-VwQDHlF_JIHTWKkkw8SeekiguD2i9MJkf6qnVo">bitter internal strife</a> in her own party, much of it directed at her.</p>
<h2>Conservatives’ updated image</h2>
<p>Enter the Conservative Party. Fresh from <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-without-scheer-the-right-wing-values-of-the-conservatives-run-deep-126089">Andrew Scheer</a>’s unsuccessful run as leader, the party recognizes that it, too, could sway wary voters. </p>
<p>Indeed, the past few weeks have witnessed an emotional reset of the Conservative Party. Leader Erin O’Toole’s campaign has been marked by a softening — an acceptance that <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/conservative-leader-erin-otoole-announces-climate-change-plan/">climate change</a> is real (<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7708960/conservative-party-climate-change/">even if his party continues to deny it</a>), a <a href="https://theconversation.com/erin-otooles-abortion-stance-serves-neither-physicians-nor-women-166728">pro-choice stance</a>, the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2021/otoole-singh-continue-public-engagements-trudeau-itinerary-marked-as-private">denouncing of angry anti-Trudeau protests</a>, and, of course, a recent vow to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/conservative-leader-erin-otoole-to-ban-puppy-mills-protect-animal-welfare/">shut down puppy mills</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Conservative leader Erin O’Toole behind a podium in front of green lawns fenced fields" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420642/original/file-20210912-24-193s1gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole visits an animal shelter in King City, Ont. The Conservative campaign promises to ban puppy mills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps most surprising was O’Toole’s recent flip-flop on gun control. Drawing on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423920001031">tough-on-crime rhetoric</a>, O’Toole and his party vigorously opposed Bill C-71 in 2018. The Liberal government-tabled bill aimed to tighten existing firearm laws by, in part, enhancing background checks of would-be gunowners. At the time, <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/3/27/erin-otoole-5/">O’Toole lashed out at Bill C-71</a> for targeting “law-abiding people as opposed to law breakers.”</p>
<p>This <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/4/peter-kent-2/">type of rhetoric</a> — drawing heavily on harmful stereotypes about <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/4/peter-kent-2/">gangbangers and organized crime</a> – has come to define the Conservative Party’s opposition to gun control legislation for the past decade. In 2018, <a href="https://openparliament.ca/debates/2018/6/18/ted-falk-7/">the Conservative Party attacked</a> Trudeau for focusing “their fire on law-abiding farmers, hunters, and northern Canadians” rather than on “felons, on gangs, and on the flow of illegal guns across the borders.” </p>
<p>The party’s arguments about gun control took distinctly punitive forms and, at times, strongly mirrored the rhetoric and imagery mobilized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/17432197-8797487">U.S. President Donald Trump during the same time period</a>.</p>
<p>Although his policy position on banning assault rifles remains murky, O’Toole’s rhetoric has shifted, particularly in its emotional contours. O’Toole <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-erin-otoole-leaves-door-open-to-repealing-ban-on-guns-used-in-canadas/">has stated calmly</a> that as leader, he will ensure the party has “an approach focused on public safety, focused on maintaining restrictions in place and having a review of our classification system that removes the politics from this.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bloc Québecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, Green Party leader Annamie Paul, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Erin O'Toole before the federal election English-language leaders' debate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420643/original/file-20210912-20-p46nix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The election atmosphere is thick with feeling, and it may colour how voters respond at the polls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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<p>This recent emotional repositioning <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-erin-otooles-sunny-ways-have-caught-justin-trudeau-off-guard/">has some wondering if we are now entering the era of “Sunny Ways O’Toole</a>.” While his new-found optimistic messaging might seem novel, his playbook tears a page from factions of the conservative movement who <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/01/20/conservatives-mps-eject-derek-sloan-in-a-secret-ballot-vote.html">called on the party to adjust its tone and approach</a>. </p>
<p>With the backlash politics of anger and outrage consuming some of the party’s base, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-jan-13-2021-1.5871185/conservatives-must-reject-trumpism-and-address-voter-anger-rather-than-stoking-it-says-strategist-1.5871704">some vocal strategists within the party have urged</a> Conservatives to embrace compassionate policy solutions that speak to voters. Rejecting emotions that are stubbornly attached to right-wing leaders and parties seems to have its strategic advantages.</p>
<p>The election atmosphere is thick with feeling, and it shows no sign of dissipating. Not only are the electoral outcomes uncertain, the political emotions we attach to partisan affiliation are shifting, too. </p>
<p>This election may turn out to be a repeat of 2019, with the Liberals emerging victorious. But the emotional terrain on which Canada’s federal parties struggle is shifting and this may colour the political landscape for elections to come. The “sunny” Liberals under Trudeau may need to contend with Conservative clouds on the horizon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Gordon receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Orsini receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.
</span></em></p>The emotions we attach to political affiliation are shifting during this federal election. The vote may turn out to be a master class in how a party can capture the political mood and use it to its benefit.Kelly Gordon, Assistant Professor, Political Science, McGill UniversityMichael Orsini, Professor, health policy, disability, public policy, social movements, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1670322021-09-09T20:09:47Z2021-09-09T20:09:47ZFederal election: Which party has the best climate plan? Here’s where they stand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420101/original/file-20210908-27-teyutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5447%2C3626&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate activists protest outside of the first French leaders' debate in Montréal, Que. on Sept. 2, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The coronavirus crisis gives us a golden opportunity to make our society more sustainable, as <a href="https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/">politicians</a> and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/europe/g-7-summit-kicks-build-back-better-message">organizations</a> around the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/building-back-better-a-sustainable-resilient-recovery-after-covid-19-52b869f5/">world</a> have already noted. Just like how the oil crises of the 1970s led many countries to <a href="https://www.rapidtransition.org/stories/from-oil-crisis-to-energy-revolution-how-nations-once-before-planned-to-kick-the-oil-habit/">revolutionize their energy systems</a>, the pandemic has given us a chance to rethink many aspects of our society — including our dependence on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>But the question of <em>how</em> to do this is tricky. The findings of socio-technical transitions researchers, who study large-scale technological change, can help us evaluate whether the climate platforms being put forward in this election will achieve what they say they will. </p>
<h2>Liberals: Emphasizing innovation</h2>
<p>Up until now, the Liberals have relied heavily on carbon pricing — an approach that has received <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.11.018">considerable criticism</a>. Carbon taxes reduce the problem to individual choices, ignoring the role played by infrastructure, regulations and industry structure.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the <a href="https://liberal.ca/climate/">current Liberal plan</a> expands on the carbon tax. The Liberals have a clear plan not just to develop new low-carbon technologies, but to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.11.012">embed these in a wider technological system</a>, through support for electric vehicle charging and smart grids, for example.</p>
<p>The Liberal plan does not, however, say much about social or economic change to complement their proposed technological change. For example, the Liberals have an electric vehicle plan, but say very little about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7">arguably more important task of reducing car dependence altogether</a>. </p>
<p>And their plan to reduce emissions from the oil and gas sector ignores the fact that the biggest problem with the fossil fuel industry is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/23/existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-will-blow-carbon-budget-study">the fossil fuels themselves</a>. </p>
<p>The Liberal plan, despite its impressive detail, is insufficient for broad systemic change. It does not address topics like demand, consumption, urban planning or the structure of daily life.</p>
<h2>Conservatives: No at-large plan</h2>
<p>The Conservative plan focuses on <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/plan/secure-the-environment/">empowering private citizens and industries to make low-carbon choices for themselves</a>. The Conservatives would, for example, replace the carbon tax with a low-carbon savings account, which people would pay into every time they buy fossil fuels. This money could then be spent on low-carbon purchases, such as electric vehicles or more efficient boilers. For industry, the Conservatives propose tax breaks for the first five industrial facilities to implement a new low-carbon technology. </p>
<p>The problem with this approach is that it individualizes the problem and does nothing to address bigger issues of infrastructure, logistics chains, standards and other systemic factors that <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/carbon-lock-in-definition">lock in dependence on fossil fuels</a>. </p>
<p>True, the Conservatives do have some plans to develop infrastructure — such as for electric vehicles. But even here, the justification for focusing on electric vehicles on the grounds that “<a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/15104504/24068610becf2561.pdf">most families cannot meet the challenges of work and parenting without one or more cars</a>” indicates an unwillingness to tackle the reasons why our cities are so car-dependent.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-could-end-our-dependence-on-cars-if-we-build-back-better-154986">COVID-19 could end our dependence on cars — if we 'build back better'</a>
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<p>A new technology must first fit into existing systems before it can stretch it into something else. Cars, for example, had to be able to drive on roads built mainly for bicycles and horses before anyone would think about building a highway. </p>
<p>The Conservative platform is all fit and no stretch: They want to make low-carbon technology more accessible on an individual basis, but they have no plan for a wider transformation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A painted electric vehicle symbol on asphalt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420330/original/file-20210909-21-vh6osi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Several climate plans acknowledge the need for infrastructure for electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>New Democrats: Two birds, one stone</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/climate-action">NDP climate platform</a> proposes to use climate policy to achieve economic and social change. The NDP plan for worker retraining is by far the most detailed and will soften the blow for workers who are displaced from fossil fuel-intensive industries. They also propose to support community-owned renewable energy projects, which can help build local support for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.044">renewable energy projects</a>, and to link low-carbon housing with their affordable housing agenda.</p>
<p>The NDP also has a serious plan for tackling energy demand. Their low-carbon transportation plan prioritizes public transit, walking and cycling alongside an electric vehicle strategy. Their plan to improve internet provision to rural areas to enable more working from home has a similar logic to it, although unfortunately evidence suggests that working from home might actually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-014-0556-5">increase vehicle distance travelled</a>. </p>
<p>The NDP clearly understands that linking social and economic benefits to environmental ones is an important way of ensuring that good climate policy remains politically viable. </p>
<h2>Bloc Québécois: Regional side benefits</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.blocquebecois.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/blocqc-Plateforme-2021-planche.pdf">Bloc platform</a> emphasizes side benefits of green transitions for the province of Québec: a hydroelectricity powerhouse and a global mining centre. Existing Québec industries can produce <a href="https://www.alcoa.com/sustainability/en/elysis">low-carbon aluminum</a>, <a href="https://propulsionquebec.com/impulsionmtl/en/2021/01/29/quebec-on-its-way-to-homegrown-battery-industry/">batteries</a> and <a href="https://propulsionquebec.com/en/industry/quebec/">electric vehicles</a>. Beyond supporting these industries, the Bloc also proposes a regional Québec alternative to Via Rail Canada.</p>
<p>In addition to prioritizing side benefits, the Bloc are wise to enlist support from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276414531627">powerful incumbent industries</a>. As with the Conservatives, however, the Bloc Québécois’ plan emphasizes support for established players and falls short on embracing large-scale change.</p>
<h2>The Green Party: Mandate, but no details</h2>
<p>The Greens have an aggressive plan, which includes <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/platform/green-future">phasing out the fossil fuel industry, promoting innovation and addressing consumption</a>.</p>
<p>The Green platform ticks a lot of important boxes: They propose retraining for workers, a national renewable-powered grid, and a coherent national transportation network including high-speed rail, light rail and electric buses. Their practical plans for how to achieve this range from international agreements to patent law.</p>
<p>This is a good plan, although in some places it lacks both detail and systemic scope for how change will actually happen in practice. The promise to simply “mandate and support” a faster transition to renewable energy in transportation, for example, gives no understanding of what this support would actually look like.</p>
<h2>Managing the transition</h2>
<p>The parties’ climate plans differ mainly on the question of which specific part of the transition they account for. Different parties place different levels of emphasis on innovation, consumption, political support and industrial support.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, an effective climate plan that can actually enact a large-scale transition away from fossil fuels requires working hard in all of these areas at once. Transitions are multifaceted and involve codependent changes in technology, infrastructure, regulations, consumption habits and many other areas. A good climate plan should combine into something greater than the sum of its parts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Roberts is affiliated with Courage Coalition.</span></em></p>Climate change is a hot-button issue in the upcoming federal election, and each party has a different plan to address the issue.Cameron Roberts, Researcher in Sustainable Transportation, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1663012021-08-22T12:00:22Z2021-08-22T12:00:22ZProgress stops when we create and dismantle infrastructure programs every federal election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417047/original/file-20210819-21-1gns0la.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C0%2C5872%2C3956&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A construction site in Toronto in March 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to the most recent Canadian Infrastructure Report Card, <a href="http://canadianinfrastructure.ca/downloads/canadian-infrastructure-report-card-2019.pdf">the state of our infrastructure is at risk</a> — <a href="https://www.trisura.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Trisura-Infrastructure-WP-English-Update.pdf">in fact, it’s failing</a>. And our approach to tackling infrastructure has remained stagnant for decades. </p>
<p>Mired in political promises and lack of citizen engagement, Canada’s approach has focused largely on fast cash infusions to stimulate an underproductive economy. Stimulus infusions focus on spending money <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/canada-needs-more-infrastructure-spending-but-not-as-short-term-stimulus/">quickly on projects that have little value long-term</a>.</p>
<p>Canada’s election season highlights this disjointed approach. Look at election platforms over the past two decades, and you won’t find much in the way of change in terms of our approach to infrastructure investments. </p>
<p>Conservatives often tout <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-national-energy-corridor-announcement-1.5301488">energy corridors</a> and transportation for increased trade. The NDP look at social infrastructure investments, including <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-child-care-1.5302892">core housing needs</a>. The Green Party toes the line of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-jobs-transition-economy-1.5238864">green infrastructure retrofits and renewable energy investments</a>. And the Liberals fall somewhere in between each of these priority areas.</p>
<h2>The Achilles heel of any government</h2>
<p>Election platform promises about infrastructure typically focus on what hasn’t been done and how money was mismanaged. Party platforms are filled with promises to do more, but infrastructure is the Achilles heel of any government.</p>
<p>Party leaders have to talk about investing in infrastructure during the election, but if elected they have little funding to work with, combined with a largely hypercritical audience that doesn’t want to spend money.</p>
<p>We cannot simply blame politicians. Our political priorities are, after all, a reflection of the average Canadians ignorance to infrastructure. Something along the lines of “I want the road fixed, but I don’t realize how much it costs and I don’t want to pay for it” often summarizes the average thinking. </p>
<p>So how do you tackle this in an election platform?</p>
<p>The newly announced Conservative <a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">Canada’s Recovery Plan</a> reads a lot like the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/eap-pae-eng.html">Economic Action Plan</a> of years past. It’s not far off of the Liberals’ post-pandemic recovery either. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/eap-pae-eng.html">Harper-era Action Plan</a> and its predecessor, the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/prog/bcp-pcc-eng.html">2007 Building Canada Plan</a>, touted billions of dollars in investments, <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2015/docs/themes/infrastructure-eng.html">many of which were targeted towards infrastructure</a>. Their election plan discusses “<a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">building infrastructure to get the economy moving</a>,” focusing on high-speed internet and transportation. </p>
<p>The NDP fixates on “building the infrastructure we need,” with a focus on infrastructure that <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/communities?focus=13934154&nothing=nothing">makes communities more liveable and helps fight climate change</a>. If <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/home-accueil-en.html">Budget 2021</a> is any indication, the Liberals will continue to toe a party line that pushes for economic recovery while dealing with social and green infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People stand at a podium during a press conference as building is taking place in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/417045/original/file-20210819-27-1ehe0gd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction of the future LRT line is visible to the left at the Ottawa MacDonald-Cartier International Airport in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/David Kawai</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Infrastructure gap in Indigenous communities</h2>
<p>One of the largest areas for opportunity is addressing the infrastructure gap in Indigenous communities. The Liberals’ Budget 2021 had a focus on building an <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/report-rapport/p3-en.html">inclusive economic recovery</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2021-18-billion-is-a-step-towards-closing-gaps-between-indigenous-and-non-indigenous-communities-159104">especially for Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-communities-should-dictate-how-1-billion-infrastructure-investment-is-spent-158027">Indigenous communities should dictate how $1 billion infrastructure investment is spent</a>
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</em>
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<p>The Conservatives have promised to promote “mutually beneficial conversations” between Indigenous communities and resource project proponents, promising <a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">shared benefits from Canada’s resource development</a>. The NDP promises a platform of <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/reconciliation">building resilient communities, focusing on reliable infrastructure and renewable energy</a>. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-communities-should-dictate-how-1-billion-infrastructure-investment-is-spent-158027">major reform is needed</a> before progress on closing the infrastructure gap can be seen.</p>
<p>A stimulus-focused <a href="https://www.renewcanada.net/feature/should-we-change-the-definition-of-shovel-ready/">“shovel-ready” approach</a> is limited and short-sighted. Most government approaches focus on shovel-ready, yielding <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/october-2016/economic-performance-and-policy-during-the-harper-years/">middle-ground projects that didn’t meet community needs or demands</a>. The Liberal party has been criticized for spending “<a href="https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/16102359/f8279981721e07a.pdf">all its time announcing and re-announcing the money it planned to spend, but has failed to get shovels in the ground</a>.”</p>
<h2>Investments aren’t enough</h2>
<p>Investments in community infrastructure have long been touted as <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-money/what-the-countrys-top-entrepreneurs-would-include-in-the-federal-budget/article16681423/">vital to keeping the economy going and improving quality of life for Canadians</a>. While they yield <a href="https://www.iuoelocal793.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Broadbent-Study.pdf">growth in GDP which leads to increases in wages and standard of living</a>, they often aren’t enough. </p>
<p>Past governments have shelled out billions, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/infrastructure-election-trudeau-scheer-1.5322892">with persistent problems in addressing the true need</a>. We know that <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-history-shows-spending-on-infrastructure-doesnt-always-end-well-165653">infrastructure spending doesn’t always end well</a>, especially when disconnected from community needs and engagement.</p>
<p>You can’t balance the budget and close the infrastructure gap without long-term planning that transcends political parties. Infrastructure requires <a href="https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Public-Infrastructure-Projects-Iacobacci-final.pdf">solid business cases</a> given the high capital required. </p>
<p>The Conservatives have promised to dismantle the <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-statement-on-trudeaus-failed-infrastructure-plan/">Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB)</a>, and so <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/infrastructure-bank-to-invest-10-billion-in-priority-areas-for-pandemic-recovery-1.5127925">have the NDP</a>. The Liberals’ approach to the CIB is certain to be <a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/08/05/210282/210282">a political issue for all parties this election</a> because the CIB encourages private investments. But questions remain around whether private investments <a href="https://canadians.org/analysis/public-private-partnerships-have-no-place-canadas-post-covid-just-recovery">actually result in lower costs and faster delivery</a>, and how effective and efficient the CIB is. However, no progress can be made when we create and dismantle infrastructure programs with every election change.</p>
<p>Infrastructure is complex. It requires private and public investments, it must account for our changing climate and it must be visionary in its long-term approach. Infrastructure is about more than just technology access or increasing trade — it’s about community and people. We need to see through the political rhetoric, and move beyond the excitement and allure of new jobs and funding. </p>
<p>What we are building is not as important as why we are building it. Infrastructure investments can’t just be an election promise, they must be a national priority — one that moves beyond the politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Black receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council. </span></em></p>Canada’s election season highlights the country’s disjointed approach to infrastructure, which focuses largely on fast cash infusions to stimulate an underproductive economy.Kerry Black, Assistant Professor and Canada Research Chair, Integrated Knowledge, Engineering and Sustainable Communities, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619642021-06-27T12:35:41Z2021-06-27T12:35:41ZThe NDP turns 60: It’s never truly been the political arm of organized labour<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407440/original/file-20210621-35190-1oli1ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C80%2C1934%2C1378&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">T.C. (Tommy) Douglas, shown in this 1961 photo being held up by supporters, after being chosen leader of the newly form New Democratic Party. He is held by trade unionist Claude Jodoin (left), national CCF president David Lewis and British Labour leader Hugh Gaitshell.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New Democratic Party <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/New-Democratic-Party-political-party">turns 60 this summer</a>. Throughout its entire history, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/union-made/">media pundits</a> and <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/how-kathleen-wynne-became-one-of-ontarios-most-cynical-politicians">political opponents</a> have lambasted the party <a href="https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/04/Clark-Attacks-NDP-Steelworkers-Fake-News">as the puppet</a> of organized labour. This characterization, however, no longer holds water — if it ever did.</p>
<p>The widely held yet deeply flawed assumption that the NDP is the political arm of Canada’s labour movement has been held up by voices <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2019/10/04/ontario-federation-of-labour-endorses-ndp-and-jagmeet-singh.html">on both the left</a> <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/05/30/ndp-relationship-with-cornerstone/">and right</a> of the political spectrum. The history and reality of the party-union relationship, however, is <a href="https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/cpsr/article/view/291/328">much more complex</a>. </p>
<p>The Canadian Labour Congress played a <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/new-democratic-party">key role</a> in officially launching the NDP in August 1961 as a new progressive electoral vehicle for working-class voters. </p>
<p>The party’s pro-union architects anticipated that the creation of the NDP would squeeze out the Liberals and establish the party as the primary alternative to the Conservatives. However, that much-hoped-for electoral realignment has never really materialized at the federal level. </p>
<p>From the start, union leaders struggled to convince their members to support the NDP. That created a dynamic characterized by close relations between union and party leaders without an equivalent relationship at the rank-and-file level.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is applauded" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407445/original/file-20210621-30-onlaax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is applauded as he is introduced at the Canadian Union of Public Employees convention in Montreal in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Formal union affiliation to the party <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=Ga0cxkeeYQEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Political_Choices_and_Electoral_Consequences&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwipwtnbhpzvAhUUCM0KHcO1D2kQ6AEwAHoECAAQAg#v=onepage&q=Political_Choices_and_Electoral_Consequences&f=false">peaked in 1963</a> at just 14.6 per cent of union members, before facing a steady decline over the next few decades. </p>
<p>And union members, despite the best efforts of some labour leaders, have never formed a reliable and consistent NDP voting bloc. </p>
<h2>Why aren’t unions loyal to the NDP?</h2>
<p>Although important segments of the union movement continue to hold <a href="https://twitter.com/Prof_Savage/status/1381759850825277452">special status</a> as key party stakeholders, and even though unions continue to be an important source of NDP candidates, organized labour’s formal ties and influence over the party have diminished considerably in recent decades.</p>
<p>How do we account for this? There are several contributing factors.</p>
<p>First, the labour movement has undergone <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2013001/article/11878-eng.htm">significant changes</a> since the 1960s. The NDP was really the creation of private sector industrial unions that dominated the labour movement in the immediate post-Second World War period. However, the rise of public sector unionism has significantly altered the composition of the labour movement and, by extension, its political priorities. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bob Rae gestures in the Ontario legislature." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=765&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407459/original/file-20210621-21-r74esf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=962&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bob Rae, Ontario premier at the time, is seen in the provincial legislature in 1991.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Bill Becker</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the NDP does maintain some ties with specific public sector unions, the uneven track record of provincial NDP governments as employers has generally undermined the development of reliable electoral alliances. The ghost of Ontario NDP Premier <a href="https://www.tvo.org/video/revisiting-raes-days">Bob Rae’s infamous anti-union wage restraint legislation</a> still looms large.</p>
<p>Second, the federal NDP’s lack of electoral success has undermined its union ties. Like most groups that try to influence the outcome of election campaigns, unions must concern themselves with the benefits, but also the drawbacks, of supporting a party that may share their values but can’t get voted into power.</p>
<p>The third factor is financial. Historically, unions were an important source of funding for the party until their donations were severely curbed and then altogether banned by federal <a href="https://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/faa-lfi/fs-fi/16/01fs-fi-eng.asp">campaign finance legislation between 2004 and 2006</a>. This severing of financial ties undermined the party-union relationship by limiting the direct ways unions could fund the party’s activities and, by extension, influence its priorities.</p>
<p>All of these factors have led to weaker ties between organized labour and the NDP.</p>
<p>While the Canadian Labour Congress is still officially on record as <a href="https://twitter.com/Prof_Savage/status/1405959107249590273">supporting the NDP</a>, the views of its affiliates and other unions are decidedly mixed. Some continue to work closely with the party, while most have sought alternative political strategies, including issue-based <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/july-2020/third-parties-strive-to-become-a-driving-force-in-elections/">third-party campaigns</a> and tactical endorsements of rival party candidates, usually as part of union-led, anti-Conservative <a href="http://www.lltjournal.ca/index.php/llt/article/view/5874">strategic voting campaigns</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Justin Trudeau and Jerry Dias walk together" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407472/original/file-20210621-35190-4bzu0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Unifor’s Jerry Dias make their way to a meeting on Parliament Hill in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>The changing dynamic between the NDP and unions has shifted the landscape of labour politics in Canada, but in unanticipated ways. </p>
<p>At the turn of the 21st century, loosening ties to the NDP was promoted by some unions as the <a href="http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/44/134.html">key to developing a more independent and left-wing brand of working-class politics</a>. However, it appears the opposite has occurred, evident in the widespread support among unions for anti-Conservative strategic voting — a tactic that has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-labour-movement-election-support-1.5315676">primarily benefited the federal Liberals</a>.</p>
<p>The NDP’s perceived grip on union voters seems more tenuous than ever as parties jockey for the votes of union members with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erin-otooles-strategy-to-win-over-union-voters-could-work-146259">populist cultural and economic appeals</a> and <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2016/08/24/standing-ovations-for-trudeau-at-unifor-convention/">targeted commitments to pursue pro-union initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>The implications of a weakened NDP-union relationship for the future of labour and working-class politics in Canada are significant. If unions are more likely to pursue independent political strategies, will the NDP show less interest in championing labour movement priorities in the House of Commons? </p>
<p>NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s recent push to <a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/the-ndp-must-be-a-party-of-workers-not-small-business">woo small business owners</a> may provide a clue to the party’s evolving priorities.</p>
<p>Whether the labour movement’s ties to the NDP will continue to weaken remains to be seen, but there can be no doubt that the political muscle of unions that helped to launch the NDP in 1961 was never that strong in the first place. Even worse for the party, it’s atrophied considerably over the course of the last 60 years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Larry Savage receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>The political muscle of unions that helped to launch the NDP in was never that strong in the first place. Even worse for the party, it’s atrophied considerably over the course of the last 60 years.Larry Savage, Professor, Labour Studies, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1241442019-10-10T21:06:52Z2019-10-10T21:06:52ZClimate change is a top issue for Canadians. What should voters look for?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296307/original/file-20191009-3917-nkrwzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C53%2C2860%2C2061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh participates in a climate strike event as he makes a campaign stop in Victoria on Friday, Sept. 27, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-siberia-russia-wildfires/">forest fires in Siberia</a> to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/high-temperatures-smash-all-time-records-alaska-early-july-2019">record-high temperatures in Alaska</a> to the <a href="http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2019/08/europes-warm-air-spikes-greenland-melting-to-record-levels/">melting of the Greenland ice sheet</a>, 2019 has seen the mounting evidence of climate change. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/election-2019-is-a-battle-to-define-the-agenda/">climate change being one of the top issues in the federal election,</a> we need to take a look at what effective emissions reduction policies look like.</p>
<p>The party platforms differ substantially on their strategies to reduce emissions. During the English language debate, party leaders discussed their policies on oil and gas extraction, home retrofits and transportation, among others. The range of possibilities spanned from doing very little (Conservative) to aggressive (NDP and Green), and in between (Liberal).</p>
<h2>Energy and emissions in Canada</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296341/original/file-20191010-188783-1hv5csv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s energy and non-energy emissions, in megatonnes (Mt)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data from UN Climate Change</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2017, more than 80 per cent of Canada’s human-made (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions were from the <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/65715">extraction, conversion and consumption of energy derived from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas and crude oil</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296343/original/file-20191010-188792-1lpglcr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Primary energy supply for Canada, in petajoules (PJ)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2510002901">Data from Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0029-01</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">Limiting global temperatures to 1.5C this century</a> will require net-global emissions to reach zero by no later than 2055. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/paris-agreement.html">Canada is a signatory to the Paris climate agreement</a>, the federal, provincial and territorial governments need policies that reduce energy-related emissions rapidly, yet are both politically and economically palatable.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296345/original/file-20191010-188807-4yz0xw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy demand in Canada’s end-use sectors, in petajoules (PJ)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2510002901">Data from Statistics Canada, Table 25-10-0029-01</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These policies will need to target the different energy systems found across the country: the primary energy supply (more than 80 per cent supplied from sources of crude oil, natural gas, coal, and natural gas liquids); the energy conversion processes (thermal power plants and refineries); the distribution processes and the end-use sectors (industry, transportation, buildings and agriculture/forestry).</p>
<h2>Emissions reduction policies</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, there are three categories of energy policy that can be used to reduce emissions: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222646526_The_four_'R's_of_energy_security">reduction, replacement and restriction</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Reduction</em></strong></p>
<p>These policies aim to reduce energy demand without changing the system or its energy supply. If the policy leads drivers <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/planning.shtml">to take fewer trips or use less fuel</a>, it has done its job. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Other examples of reduction policies include financial incentives to reduce energy demand, such as <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-invests-in-energy-efficiency-retrofits-in-canadian-municipalities-811885531.html">encouraging building retrofits through grants and low-cost loans</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/35876.pdf">reducing heat losses from industrial processes</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Replacement</em></strong></p>
<p>These policies aim to change our energy sources or parts of our energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They can be focused on parts of the energy system, like replacing incandescent bulbs with light-emitting diodes (LEDs) or conventional vehicles with hybrid-electric vehicles. </p>
<p>They can also focus on the sources of the energy being consumed, like <a href="https://www.americancoalcouncil.org/page/biomass">replacing coal with co-fired coal and biomass in a thermal generating station</a> or <a href="https://www.targray.com/biofuels/blends/e10-ethanol">substituting petroleum transportation fuels with mixtures of petroleum and biofuel</a>.</p>
<p><strong><em>Restriction</em></strong> </p>
<p>These policies are a more aggressive type of replacement policy. They target parts of the energy system and the energy it consumes, replacing them with new processes and energy sources to meet existing demand. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/end-coal">transition from coal to natural gas and renewables in Ontario</a> to improve air quality is an example of a restriction where thermal plants operating with coal were shuttered in favour of new natural gas, solar and wind facilities. Restrictions can also apply to end-use sectors, such as consumers opting to buy electric vehicles rather than conventional petroleum vehicles.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-vehicles-canada-tops-the-charts-for-poor-fuel-economy-115213">When it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Emissions reduction and energy security</h2>
<p>Developing and implementing the necessary emissions-reduction policies for a rapid decline in emissions is challenging, since these policies will impact every sector of Canadian society. </p>
<p>This can be seen in <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/putting-price-on-carbon-pollution.html">the five provinces that are subject to the federal government’s carbon-pricing system</a>, which targets energy-use in all sectors of the economy: industrial, transportation, residential and commercial buildings and agriculture.</p>
<p>To be acceptable, the policies must be implemented with minimal risk to the supply and price of energy to Canadians and the Canadian economy. However, policies that are ill-conceived or poorly implemented can inadvertently increase the risks to the energy security of an energy system. </p>
<p>An energy system is said to be energy secure if it is <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v42y2012icp221-231.html">resilient to risks from events caused by human activities, natural disasters, structural failures and policy changes</a>. Secure systems are able to <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/energysecurity/">maintain the availability and affordability of the energy consumed by the end-users</a>.</p>
<p>The world has seen several recent examples of energy systems that are not resilient. In 2011, an <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-accident.aspx">earthquake and tsunami caused a nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan</a> affected both the affordability and availability of electricity. The risk of downed lines causing fires forced <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/PG-E-power-shut-off-257-000-Bay-Area-residents-14500945.php">Pacific Gas and Electric to cut electricity supply to 800,000 customers</a> in California. Similarly, the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/explaining-sky-high-gasoline-prices/article25579063/">rapid increase in gasoline prices</a> in 2008 affected the commuting habits of many Canadians.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296347/original/file-20191010-188807-1tvtpmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carlos Lama reads by the light of his phone in a restaurant in Sausalito, Calif., on Wed., Oct. 8. 2019. Pacific Gas & Electric cut power to more than half a million customers in Northern California hoping to prevent wildfires during dry, windy weather throughout the region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Dep/Marin Independent Journal via AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With each disruption, the energy system must <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274097636_The_effects_of_event_occurrence_and_duration_on_resilience_and_adaptation_in_energy_systems">adapt to the new conditions</a> to remain secure. Adaptation can, in turn, be a risk to the availability and affordability of the energy supplied to the jurisdiction. </p>
<p>If we look at the major parties’ approaches to this conundrum, we find several trade-offs. </p>
<p>The Conservative Party’s strategy of moving ahead with greenhouse gas intensive oil and gas projects does have the benefit of mitigating the risks of availability and affordability for consumers, but comes with serious long-term climate change risks. </p>
<p>The Greens and the NDP present the opposite option, with action on climate change coming at the expense of energy security. </p>
<p>The Liberals lie somewhere in the middle. They are offering some climate action, but meaningful risks to both energy security — from higher carbon pricing — and long-term climate change impacts — from continued expansion of oil and gas extraction — remain. </p>
<h2>The climate-action backlash</h2>
<p>Canada currently relies on emissions intensive energy sources. If we are to achieve our emissions reductions targets by 2055, reduction policies will likely have an impact on the availability and affordability of energy. </p>
<p>We have already seen examples of politicians ignoring or scrapping existing emission reduction policies and groups affected by the policies pushing back against them. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/climate/climate-rule-trump-reversing.html">United States</a>, the Trump administration is reversing many climate regulations, and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/gilet-jaunes-yellow-vests-go-green-as-europeans-demand-climate-action/a-47638974">in France</a>, the unequal application of climate policy was one of the main reasons the yellow-vest movement was formed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296348/original/file-20191010-188787-1xsi5yl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yellow vest protesters march in Paris, May 11, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Michel Euler</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-jason-kenney-carbon-tax-queens-park-1.5121307">While in Canada</a>, Conservative premiers are pushing back against the federal government’s carbon-pricing policies. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-doug-ford-doctrine-short-term-gain-for-long-term-pain-116131">The Doug Ford doctrine: Short-term gain for long-term pain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>So what is the climate-conscious voter to do? </p>
<p>They should look for details on how each party plans to transform the energy system and its impact on their province. This means understanding how electricity is generated, how buildings are heated and cooled, and how goods and people are moved.</p>
<p>In Monday’s debate, the prime minister said, “We recognize
that transition to clean energy will not happen overnight.” </p>
<p>While undoubtedly true, one is left with the question, how many nights do we have?</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Larry Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls show that climate change is one of the top-three issues for Canadians heading to the ballot box.Larry Hughes, Professor and Founding Fellow at the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1233982019-09-19T22:13:58Z2019-09-19T22:13:58ZThe NDP is MIA on bold labour proposals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293029/original/file-20190918-187995-pjp4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C665%2C4533%2C2380&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has so far failed to propose bold labour initiatives in the lead-up to the Oct. 21 federal election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many social democrats, progressives and others on the left have been approaching Canada’s federal election campaign with considerable apprehension. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/">latest polls</a>, the federal New Democratic Party is in a distant third place, its popular vote projection having declined slightly since May. </p>
<p>Poll numbers so far have put the NDP at below 15 per cent and if its popularity doesn’t rise over the next few weeks, the party is likely to lose most of its caucus and play a minor role in the next Parliament.</p>
<p>What’s going on with the New Democrats? </p>
<p>Without question, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/09/04/will-jagmeet-singhs-identity-be-a-campaign-issue.html">racism</a> — whether explicit or implicit — has contributed to NDP leader Jagmeet’s Singh’s struggle to make headway with Canadian voters. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/vb5vwb/ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-tackles-racism-after-losing-new-brunswick-candidates">Public</a> and <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/8x8wap/jagmeet-singh-called-out-the-cbc-for-racist-questions">media treatment</a> of the first visible minority leader of a Canadian political party should have Canadians thinking seriously about the country’s purported multiculturalism. </p>
<p>But there’s also been a surprising lack of organization and mobilization by the NDP. While not entirely attributable to Singh himself, the difficulty the NDP has had filling each electoral riding with a <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/09/11/ndp-candidate-in-bc-resigns-and-apologizes-for-telling-energy-journalist-that-he-would-like-to-break-his-jaw.html">vetted candidate</a> hasn’t eased the party’s woes.</p>
<h2>Labour movement in decline</h2>
<p>The NDP’s lack of bold proposals directed toward strengthening and rebuilding the labour movement — the party’s natural constituency — is striking. To be sure, the federal New Democrats have put forward some <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-singh-health-policy-federal-election-1.5175899?fbclid=IwAR1AUM2Xs1Pg1_meHEQGFhA2dVdEd-gVdFXpVUy45bqTDV6nOzSjodXE7dI">far-reaching policies</a>, such as enlarging Canada’s health-care system to include dental, hearing and eye coverage, Pharmacare and mental health services. </p>
<p>But when it comes to the labour movement, the NDP has less to offer. This is particularly troubling when contrasted with <a href="https://pressprogress.ca/parliamentary-budget-officer-1-tax-on-canadas-wealthy-elites-would-generate-nearly-70-billion-in-new-revenue/">persistent earnings and wealth inequality</a> in Canada, and the related <a href="https://pressprogress.ca/new-data-shows-wages-stagnated-and-inequality-grew-even-as-the-canadian-economy-boomed-in-2017/">wage stagnation</a> experienced by workers in the bottom 40 per cent of the income distribution since the 1980s. </p>
<p>It’s no coincidence that during this same time period, union membership rates have fallen from a high of 37.6 per cent <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2015005-eng.htm">in 1981</a> to just over 30 per cent today. Even this significant decline masks what has been a far more disconcerting weakening of unions in the private sector, where unionization now hovers at just under <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410013201">16 per cent</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/militant-unionists-are-striking-out-here-are-4-things-unions-can-do-to-stay-relevant-121040">Militant unionists are striking out: here are 4 things unions can do to stay relevant</a>
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<hr>
<p>Given the role trade unions <a href="https://www.labourrights.ca/sites/labourrights.ca/files/documents/cflr_unions_matter.pdf">have historically played</a> in diminishing economic inequality, there should be more in the NDP’s platform aimed at making it easier for workers to form or join unions and to expand the scope of collective bargaining. </p>
<h2>A platform for labour?</h2>
<p>Perhaps the centerpiece of the NDP labour platform is the call for a $15-an-hour federal minimum wage, <a href="https://www.insauga.com/ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-announces-plan-to-establish-living-wage-for-minimum-wage-workers">officially announced</a> by Singh on Labour Day. </p>
<p>There are two problems with this proposal.</p>
<p>First, because of the division between provincial and federal jurisdictions in Canada, where employment and labour law are mostly the purview of the provinces, a federal minimum wage would only cover approximately <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/services/labour-standards/reports/federal-minimum-wage.html">six per cent</a> of workers in federally regulated industries.</p>
<p>Currently, there’s no minimum wage in the federal industries; federal employees in the private sector are covered by the provincial minimum wage legislation in place in whichever province they happen to work. So although it would be a progressive measure to institute a higher federal minimum wage, the policy would have a limited reach. </p>
<p>Second, of those <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/services/labour-standards/reports/federally-regulated-private-sector.html">federally regulated workers</a> (who mostly work in banking, telecommunications, air, rail and road transportation, private courier services, uranium mining, grain milling and interprovincial bridge and tunnel construction), fewer than a quarter currently earn less than $20 per hour. </p>
<p>The federal New Democrats also propose to tackle the growth of nonstandard employment, such as part-time, contract and temporary work, by instituting policies designed to ensure workers are compensated equally to full-time permanent employees doing comparable work.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293063/original/file-20190918-187940-1d9wwx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers in the gig economy would be compensated fairly under NDP proposals. But the Liberals are proposing the same safeguards.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it’s not clear how these proposals differ from what Justin Trudeau’s Liberals already introduced in 2018 through Bill C-86. These newest reforms to the Canada Labour Code — the legislation governing labour standards in the federal jurisdiction — already include a measure to help guarantee <a href="https://www.hrreporter.com/workplace-law/38932-bill-c-86-brings-major-changes/">equal pay for equal work</a>, regardless of whether an employee is full-time, part-time, contract or temporary.</p>
<p>The Trudeau government has also already signalled its willingness to make a number of positive reforms to labour standards in the federal jurisdiction, convening an <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/campaigns/expert-panel.html">Expert Panel on Modern Labour Standards</a> in 2017 to hold public consultations and make recommendations to the Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour. </p>
<p><a href="https://stewartmckelvey.com/thought-leadership/client-update-change-is-the-only-constant-bill-c-86-changes-in-federal-labour-and-employment-regulation/">Bill C-86</a> contains a number of labour standards improvements. They include paid personal leave days and additional vacation and vacation pay for employees with more than 10 years of service, and a “reverse onus clause” designed to place the burden of proof on employers in cases where workers claim to be misclassified as independent contractors. </p>
<h2>Growing the labour movement</h2>
<p>On the industrial relations side, the NDP’s main proposal involves banning the use of replacement workers during strikes. Such “anti-scab” legislation has long been on the agenda of organized labour. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293058/original/file-20190918-187974-1exrbrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada Post workers walk the picket line during a rotating strike in Halifax in November 2018. The striking postal workers were ordered back on the job.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One important caution about anti-scab bills is that, while they ban companies from bringing in replacement workers, they do not necessarily stop companies from moving production out. Given the increasingly complex supply chains of our economy, outsourcing production during a labour stoppage is arguably a bigger problem for striking workers.</p>
<p>Additionally, the NDP’s <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/economy">election platform</a> indicates that the party will protect free collective bargaining. However, Canada’s system of worksite-based bargaining presents significant obstacles to union growth.</p>
<p>The rise of the “<a href="http://www.fissuredworkplace.net/the-problem.php">fissured workplace</a>,” with sub-contracting, franchising and other forms of divided ownership structures, creates a fundamental mismatch between worksite-level bargaining units and the organization of contemporary businesses. As many <a href="https://onlabor.org/this-labor-day-a-clean-slate-for-reform/">labour experts</a> have been pointing out, the only way to address these economic changes is through a system of broader-based <a href="https://www.labour.gov.on.ca/english/about/cwr_interim/chapter_4_6.php">sectoral bargaining</a>, where unions bargain contracts to cover whole sectors, industries or regions. </p>
<p>Nothing of this order seems to be on the radar of the federal NDP. </p>
<p>Granted, the federated structure of Canada’s political system makes it difficult to roll out progressive legislation with a national impact, particularly when it comes to labour reforms. But a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/dec/17/the-next-left-socialism-in-the-uk-and-the-us">resurgent left</a> in the United States and United Kingdom, growing inequality in Canada and a Canadian public seemingly <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/08/27/majority-of-canadians-have-a-positive-view-of-socialism-poll-says.html">open to progressive change</a> present a promising political opening that the NDP is unfortunately squandering. </p>
<h2>A template from Bernie Sanders</h2>
<p>If the NDP is in search of an ambitious suite of labour proposals, they should look to Democratic primary candidate Bernie Sanders’ recently released <a href="https://berniesanders.com/en/issues/workplace-democracy/">Workplace Democracy Plan</a>. It’s a veritable labour wish list for the 21st century economy. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293065/original/file-20190918-187945-ymciy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bernie Sanders’ list of labour proposals is a wish list for the decades ahead.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eric Gay)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sanders’ plan includes lifting the ban on secondary strikes and boycotts, tackling various forms of employee misclassification, guaranteeing union successor rights that would prevent contract-flipping and business sales from undermining collective agreements, ending at-will employment (requiring “just cause” for dismissals), extending labour rights and protections to workers currently exempted (like domestic workers and farm labourers), and — most ambitiously — creating a system of national-level sectoral bargaining. </p>
<p>The breadth of Sanders’ plan is remarkable, particularly when compared to the tepid NDP platform. </p>
<p>At a time when economic polarization has contributed to a revitalized left in other industrial democracies, the NDP appears conspicuously out of step. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam D.K. King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal NDP is missing an opportunity to put workers’ rights firmly on the agenda during this election campaign.Adam D.K. King, Post-Doctoral Visitor, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1221822019-09-16T19:58:31Z2019-09-16T19:58:31ZAre Canadian Conservatives actually conservative?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289136/original/file-20190822-170922-12rm1uf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C97%2C4320%2C2612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer speaks at a news conference in Saskatchewan in August 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Michael Bell</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What governing vision does the Conservative Party of Canada offer Canadians this election?</p>
<p>This is a fundamental question that the party has not yet answered. In a <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-canadas-conservatives-wont-start-winning-until-they-know-why-they-want-to-win">recent column</a>, pundit Andrew Coyne wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Conservatism in Canada now amounts to, at best, opportunism. They are in favour of whatever is unassailably popular, opposed to whatever is indefensibly unpopular … just so long as no one asks them to take a risk, a stand, or a decision, to … explain how it differs from the left’s.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The same cannot be said for the federal Liberals and NDP. The Liberals proudly wrap themselves around a heavily left-leaning economic and social agenda, while the NDP are trying to outflank the Liberals on the left. </p>
<p>Both parties unapologetically promote their fiscal vision for greater government economic intervention and their social vision for diversity, equity and overall social justice. </p>
<p>From running government deficits in normal times, legalizing marijuana and euthanasia, to, until recently, supporting policies that would further integrate China and Canada economically and socially, the Liberals seek to reshape our country. </p>
<p>What is the alternative to the left’s agenda for remaking Canada? </p>
<h2>Emphasis on tradition</h2>
<p>We can try to infer possible conservative policies by summarizing basic conservative values and then applying it to a few present-day government priorities. </p>
<p>Conservatism in general places importance on tradition and norms that provide stability for society over time. Their vision is not about going backwards, but rather to maintain conventions and practices that work. </p>
<p>It’s a view consistent with <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/conservatism/">Aristotle’s</a> beliefs that “… morality and politics —unlike natural science — lack special experts, and that in these areas, human experience over generations is the main source of knowledge,” according to academic Andy Hamilton, a philosophy professor at Durham University in the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>A conservative vision also adapts to changes reflecting societal needs — but it does not lead in those changes. In effect, a conservative approach does not use its people as test subjects in new social experiments. </p>
<p>A conservative will, however, look at the results elsewhere before making changes. Changes are made incrementally over time. Conservatives eschew activist-type policy. They acknowledge the positive contributions of historical leaders and do not judge historical events based on modern values. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290554/original/file-20190902-175691-1ozqwqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Burke is seen in this 1847 portrait.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The National Portrait Gallery</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On fiscal matters, conservatives take to heart conservative philosopher Edmund Burke’s thoughts on society’s social contract. Burke stated that society is a <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/conservatism/">social contract</a> among those living, dead and yet to be born. It is an inter-generational contract that places a responsibility on us, now, to provide the future generation an endowment for bettering themselves. </p>
<p>Burke also believed that free markets were the best way to provide for society. <a href="https://acton.org/pub/commentary/2017/11/07/edmund-burkes-conservative-case-free-markets">Interference</a>, no matter how well-intended, would misallocate resources and create unintended consequences.</p>
<p>So how would a conservative governing framework — as in small-c conservative, not necessarily the Conservative Party of Canada — impact government policy? </p>
<p>Let’s look in brief at three examples: our foreign policy towards China, immigration policy and fiscal policy. </p>
<h2>China</h2>
<p>A true conservative policy would be meaningfully influenced by Australia’s experiences dealing with China. The two countries entered into a free-trade agreement in 2015. </p>
<p>As Australia’s <a href="https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/political-strategic-dangers-increased-prc-australia-trade-andrew-pickford-inside-policy/">trade dependency</a> with China grew, its ability to make independent strategic decisions were undermined by growing Chinese economic and political influence.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-canada-and-china-to-tone-down-the-rhetoric-110018">It's time for Canada and China to tone down the rhetoric</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Thus, a Canadian conservative government, while seeing the need economically to engage the world’s second-largest economy, would do so in limited ways and on terms that would minimize the potential pressure China could exert on Canada’s future economic and political goals. </p>
<p>This would mean a halt to exploring formal trade deals and restricting Chinese direct investment in nationally sensitive industries. Canadian universities would introduce best practices in their academic exchanges in order to minimize illicit technology transfers.</p>
<h2>Immigration</h2>
<p>Conservative immigration policy would continue to encourage immigrants to Canada with skills that benefit our society. </p>
<p>But issues dealing with cultural differences and our ability to successfully integrate large numbers of culturally diverse migrants would be considered more circumspectly. </p>
<p>For instance, greater importance would be given to the impact of new immigrants settling disproportionately in Vancouver and Toronto, with the resultant growth in <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/ethnic-mapping-conclusion-as-enclaves-grow-will-metro-residents-trust-fade">ethnic enclaves</a>. More importance would also be placed on prohibiting foreign governments and foreign political groups operating within immigrant communities. </p>
<p>Language requirements would be tightened, along with additional programs implemented, to encourage community integration. </p>
<h2>Fiscal policy</h2>
<p>Regarding fiscal policy, a conservative government would ostensibly be mindful of society’s responsibility to future generations. </p>
<p>Therefore, government spending would be fiscally cautious and budgets would be balanced in all but special circumstances.</p>
<p>Government spending and tax policies would focus on encouraging community engagement, individual responsibility and volunteerism as a way of building a stronger civil society.</p>
<p>Note the emphasis on community and individualism, as opposed to direct government intervention. For example, introducing tax measures to help people save for retirement would be prioritized, while expenditures intended to correct social injustices would be reallocated. </p>
<p>Generally speaking, policies that impede free markets, such as aggressive minimum wage rates or other significant redistribution schemes, would not be pursued. </p>
<h2>Conservative values</h2>
<p>The policies outlined are not necessarily the policies of Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party —they are simply expressions of conservative values. </p>
<p>We can see however, that conservatism is much more than calling for lower taxes and not being Liberals. Conservative vision rejects social experimentation on the hope of making something better. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/289138/original/file-20190822-170927-1392va5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservatives need to stand for more than lower taxes and not being Liberals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Marc Grandmaison</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To Scheer and conservative politicians: Embrace your political heritage and show Canadians you can lead with an agenda built on solid conservative principles. If you have a message to make Canada better, Canadians need to hear it now.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jerome Gessaroli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What would a classically conservative government have to offer Canadians this election?Jerome Gessaroli, Instructor, School of Business, B.C. Institute of Technology, Visiting Lecturer, Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229182019-09-05T17:56:11Z2019-09-05T17:56:11ZCanadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290969/original/file-20190904-175663-142n1nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C368%2C5565%2C2971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to new research, the majority of Canadians in all but three ridings across the country believe their province has already felt the effects of climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s fall election is in full swing and climate policy will likely be at the centre of debate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/pricing-carbon-pollution/">trumpeting</a> their carbon pricing policy, while Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives want to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">get rid of it</a>. Meanwhile, Elizabeth May and her <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-party-wave-could-spread-across-canada-115970">newly relevant</a> Greens think Canada <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/mission-possible">must do more</a> to manage the climate crisis.</p>
<p>But where do Canadian voters stand on this issue?</p>
<p>Our research team, based at the Université de Montréal and the University of California Santa Barbara, has new public opinion data to answer this question. Using recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159774">statistical and political science advances</a>, we can estimate Canadian opinion in every single riding across the country (except for the less densely populated territories, where data collection is sparse). And we’ve released on <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">online tool</a> so anyone can see how their local riding compares to others across the country.</p>
<h2>Canadians are concerned about climate change</h2>
<p>Our results reinforce what is increasingly clear: climate change is on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/will-climate-change-be-a-ballot-box-question-in-2019/">the minds of Canadians</a>, and not just in urban or coastal communities. A majority of Canadians in every single riding believe the climate is changing. The highest beliefs are in Halifax, where 93 per cent of the public believe climate change is happening. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe climate change is happening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And a majority of Canadians in all but three ridings think their province has already experienced the impacts of climate change. These beliefs are particularly high in Québec, where 79 per cent feel the impacts of climate change have already arrived. </p>
<p>Canadians also want to see the government take the climate threat seriously. </p>
<p>A majority of voters supports <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/05/what-is-emissions-trading">emissions trading</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/31/carbon-tax-cap-and-trade">Carbon taxation</a> is more divisive, yet more people support carbon taxation than don’t in 88 per cent of Canadian ridings. </p>
<p>And the handful of ridings that <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">don’t support</a> the Trudeau government’s carbon pricing policy — Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, for example — are already in Conservative hands. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In other words, the path to a majority government — or even a minority government — goes through many ridings where Canadians are worried about climate change and want the government to take aggressive action.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-1338.2012.00563.x">Compared to the United States</a>, the Canadian public believes climate change is happening in far higher shares. Even Canadian ridings where belief in climate change is the lowest have comparable beliefs to liberal states like Vermont and Washington. Overall Canadian support for a carbon tax is higher than support for a carbon tax in California, often thought of as the most environmentally progressive U.S. state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe their province has already been impacted by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Importantly, support for specific climate policies remains high in provinces that have already implemented climate laws. For instance, support for a carbon tax in British Columbia, where this policy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.011">was introduced in 2008</a>, is the second highest in the country at 61 per cent (Prince Edward Island has the highest support). Similarly, support for emissions trading is second highest in Québec, again just behind P.E.I., where a carbon market <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Houle2/publication/276289377_The_Political_Economy_of_California_and_Quebec's_Cap-and-Trade/links/5555f92508aeaaff3bf5ea49/The-Political-Economy-of-California-and-Quebecs-Cap-and-Trade.pdf">was implemented in 2013</a>.</p>
<h2>Even Conservative ridings want action</h2>
<p>We don’t find evidence of a backlash to carbon taxes or emissions trading — Canadians living in provinces with substantive climate policies continue to support them. Instead, we find substantial support for climate action in the ridings of Canadian politicians who have done the most to undermine Canada’s climate policy. </p>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s provincial riding matches up with the federal riding of Etobicoke North, where 62 per cent of the public supports emissions trading. In other words, Ford ignored the majority will of his own constituents when he acted to repeal Ontario’s policy last year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-new-climate-plan-is-far-from-conservative-108406">Ontario's new climate plan is far from conservative</a>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riding-level public opinion estimates for the Saskatchewan riding of Regina-Qu'Apelle, currently represented by Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same is true federally. In Scheer’s own riding of Regina-Qu'Appelle, support for carbon taxation is at 52 per cent. Only 41 per cent of Scheer’s own constituents oppose a carbon tax. He too is offside with the people he represents.</p>
<h2>The political risks of opposing climate reforms</h2>
<p>Our results emphasize how the media can sometimes misinterpret electoral mandates. In Ontario, Doug Ford promised to repeal the province’s emissions trading scheme — and won. But the former Conservative leader, Patrick Brown, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pc-convention-1.3477623">supported</a> carbon pricing while enjoying a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4037303/ontario-pcs-election-poll/beta/">comfortable lead in the polls</a>.</p>
<p>There are lots of reasons why Canadians choose to change their government, but opposition to carbon pricing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1608659">hasn’t been one of them</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Climate science</a> is clear on the need to rapidly decrease greenhouse gas emissions to avert the most disastrous consequences of climate change. As a northern country, <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-adaptation/10029">climate impacts</a> in Canada are already larger than in other places. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-frequent-fires-could-dramatically-alter-boreal-forests-and-emit-more-carbon-122355">More frequent fires could dramatically alter boreal forests and emit more carbon</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research, which the public can explore, shows that Canadians everywhere — from the most Conservative to the most Liberal ridings — are united in understanding that climate change poses a major threat to the people and places they cherish. The election provides an opportunity for Canadians have a say in the future of climate policy in their country — and all Canadian politicians should take note. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matto Mildenberger has received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Environment Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erick Lachapelle receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). He is a researcher with EcoAnalytics. Funding for individual survey waves (between 2011-2018) was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Ministère des Relations et de la Francophonie, EcoAnalytics, the Public Policy Forum, Smart Prosperity Institute, Canada 2020, l'Institut de l'énergie Trottier, and la Chaire d'études politiques et économiques américaines. </span></em></p>Climate change could take centre stage during Canada’s federal election.Matto Mildenberger, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraErick Lachapelle, Associate professor, Département de science politique, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1194872019-07-02T14:32:52Z2019-07-02T14:32:52ZSouth Africa’s first SDG report card: how to move beyond ticking boxes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281590/original/file-20190627-76726-1g1bfbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>South Africa will present its <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&type=30022&nr=1137&menu=3170">first progress report</a> on the Sustainable Development Goals at the United Nations on July 17. This report will provide a rather extensive snapshot of the country’s progress towards the 169 ambitious targets. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs">development goals</a> were adopted in 2015 by 193 United Nations member states. They were hailed as the first set of truly global goals, keeping both the developed and the developing world accountable to the same standards. </p>
<p>They cover a wide range of areas, from ending hunger and ensuring universal access to water and electricity; to promoting innovation and building strong institutions. The countries committed to achieving these goals by 2030.</p>
<p>But progress seems relatively slow across Africa. A recent <a href="http://unsdsn.org/resources/publications/2019-africa-sdg-index-and-dashboards-report/">report</a> by the <a href="http://unsdsn.org">Sustainable Development Solutions Network</a> shows that 72% of Africa’s national budgets do not mention the SDGs. It also points out that 82% of all African countries do not know what the financial requirements of reaching the SDGs are, and 65% have not yet assessed how far they are in reaching the targets.</p>
<p>South Africa, too, has been relatively slow in reporting progress. When presenting its official progress report later this month, it will be one of the last African countries to do so. But it did present a non-compulsory baseline report in 2017 <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/MDG/SDG_Baseline_Report_2017.pdf">that</a> outlined the number of indicators on which reliable national data was available.</p>
<p>South Africa’s official progress report – known in UN parlance as a Voluntary National Review – will show that the country has done quite well on some measures, and badly on others.</p>
<p>But the bigger question centres on what should be done to ensure that the SDGs actually change countries’ development trajectories.</p>
<p>A concerted effort is needed to ensure that the SDGs aren’t relegated to being merely a reporting framework. The South African SDG Hub, an <a href="http://sasdghub.org">initiative</a> hosted by the University of Pretoria has identified four good practices that could actually lead to changes in behaviour. </p>
<p>But that would require government, the private sector and civil society to be proactive. Here’s what we think they should do.</p>
<h2>Four practical steps</h2>
<p><em>1. Gather complete and reliable data.</em></p>
<p>It’s impossible to identify areas where urgent interventions are necessary without reliable and complete data. That’s why data gaps should be addressed as a matter of urgency. </p>
<p>The SDGs with the greatest data gaps in Africa are <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg8">SDG 8</a> (Decent work and economic growth), <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg11">SDG 11</a> (Sustainable cities and communities), <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14">SDG 14</a> (Life below water) and <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg16">SDG 16</a> (Peace, justice and strong institutions). South Africa’s 2017 report on data availability showed that the country is able to report on 63% of the indicators with agreed methods.</p>
<p><em>2. Take the data seriously.</em></p>
<p>Reliable data is useless if it’s not taken seriously. In fact, the data often highlight issues that escape public attention. Take malnutrition. South Africa’s SDG progress report shows that 27% of South Africa’s children are stunted (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg2">SDG 2</a>); 13% of the country’s children are overweight. This is high when compared to the global average of 6.1%. </p>
<p>The report also shows that without large-scale interventions, South Africa can expect a water deficit of at least 17% in 2030 (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg6">SDG 6).</a> </p>
<p>Taking the data seriously also means noticing where South Africa has made progress. Between 2012 and 2018, for example, the country’s electricity produced from renewable energy sources increased massively from 16.1 GWh to 8 800 GWh (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg7">SDG 7</a>). Another positive development is the continued increase in the number of researchers per million inhabitants – from 398.6 in 2007 to 475 in 2015.</p>
<p><em>3. Benchmark against others.</em></p>
<p>The SDGs provide a global framework for benchmarking a country’s progress against its peers’. The <a href="https://data.worldbank.org">World Bank’s Open Data platform</a> is a particularly helpful resource for getting a sense of the general trends. Data from Colombia and Thailand – both countries with comparable GDPs per capita and populations – make for interesting comparisons.</p>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?end=2017&locations=ZA-CO-TH&start=2006">infant morality rate</a> per 1 000 births (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg3">SDG 3</a>), for example, has declined from 36.1 in 2012 to 28.8 in 2017. But that’s still comparatively high. In 2017 the infant mortality rates in Colombia and Thailand respectively were 12.7 and 8.2. </p>
<p>There are other areas in which progress hasn’t been as strong as it should. Tuberculosis is one example. Despite major improvements, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.TBS.INCD?locations=ZA-CO-TH">tuberculosis infection rates</a> remain very high at 567 per 100 000, compared to 156 per 100 000 in Thailand and 33 per 100 000 in Colombia.</p>
<p>On the positive side, South Africa’s <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.TRAF.P5?locations=ZA-CO-TH">road deaths</a> – while high at 21.3 per 100 000 – are lower than Thailand’s (32 per 100 000). At 0.8% of GDP, South Africa’s <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=ZA-CO-TH">research and development expenditure</a> is significantly higher than that of Colombia (0.24%), and comparable to that of Thailand (0.78%) (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg9">SDG 9</a>). </p>
<p>Interestingly, South Africa scores better than both countries when it comes to levels of corruption (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg16">SDG 16</a>). In the most recent <a href="https://www.transparency.org/cpi2018">Corruption Perceptions Index</a>, South Africa is ranked 73rd out of 180 countries, compared to the 99th place shared by Thailand and Colombia.</p>
<p><em>4. Forge new types of partnerships.</em></p>
<p>In their work on problems that are particularly hard to solve, the environmentalist <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-012-9151-0">Kelly Levin and her colleagues</a> identify a few characteristics of such problems. One of them is particularly applicable to the SDGs: those who caused the problem in the first place are also trying to solve it. Put in the language of the SDGs: the very institutions that gave rise to the catalogue of problems to which the SDGs respond are trying their best to solve them.</p>
<p>A rational response to this challenge would be to form strategic alliances that reconfigure the institutional landscape that created the need for the SDGs. How should this be done? In their <a href="https://www.bsr.org/reports/BSR_Rockefeller_Private-Sector_Collaboration_for_Sustainable_Development.pdf">report on this topic</a>, global non-profit organisation BSR provides practical advice. It found that transformative partnerships are typically built around a “compelling common purpose”, which puts “the right partners in the right roles”. The trick is for institutions to actually realise that they share a common purpose.</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>It’s not too late. There are still 11 years left until countries need to present their final SDG progress reports. But to ensure that the SDGs’ real potential are unlocked, South Africa needs significant progress on a few fronts. Emphasis should be placed on improving data quality and coverage, and using this as basis to forge partnerships that use the data to effect real change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Willem Fourie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What should be done to ensure that the SDGs actually change countries’ development trajectories? Here are four practical steps.Willem Fourie, Associate Professor at the Albert Luthuli Centre for Responsible Leadership, Co-ordinator of the South African SDG Hub, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1125002019-02-26T15:05:49Z2019-02-26T15:05:49ZByelection win offers Singh an opportunity to reset his leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261050/original/file-20190226-150724-eyge9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh celebrates his Burnaby South byelection win on Feb. 25, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelections-burnaby-south-york-simcoe-outremont-1.5033259">win in the federal byelection in Burnaby South</a>, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has an opportunity to put to rest some of his doubters both outside the NDP and, more importantly, within. Now that he has a seat in the House of Commons, Singh can reset his leadership and move on from a challenging beginning.</p>
<p>This byelection win also comes at a fortuitous time as the SNC-Lavalin controversy <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-polls-snclavalin-1.5026798">continues to undermine Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s credibility with progressive voters</a>, while Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s increasingly populist and anti-immigrant rhetoric potentially alienates members of Canada’s diaspora communities.</p>
<p>As any scholar of the Canadian left or long-suffering New Democrat can tell you, whenever the NDP shows weakness, pundits and Liberal commentators come out of the woodwork to herald the NDP’s inevitable demise and Canada’s return to two-party politics.</p>
<h2>NDP has faced oblivion before</h2>
<p>The federal <a href="http://esm.ubc.ca/CA93/results.html">NDP came closest to political oblivion in 1993</a>, when its caucus was reduced to nine members in the face of Jean Chrétien’s Liberal wave. Even then, the NDP persevered and came back to fight another day. And even if Singh had lost the byelection, the NDP would have survived, but its time in the wilderness would likely have been extended and Singh’s leadership would have been threatened.</p>
<p>When Singh was <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-jagmeet-singhs-historic-ndp-leadership-win-means-for-canada-84963">decisively elected leader of the NDP in October 2017</a>, New Democrats and progressive Canadians were right to be optimistic. Over the course of the leadership campaign, he galvanized supporters around a hopeful message reminiscent of Jack Layton’s leadership. His campaign also held out the promise that he could effect inroads into Canada’s diverse and vote-rich suburban communities.</p>
<p>Almost immediately after his election however, things seemed to turn sour for the new leader. Not only did Singh have to contend with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-weir-caucus-ndp-1.4646224">multiple controversies within his caucus,</a> NDP fundraising —already anemic in the aftermath of the disappointing results of the 2015 federal election —<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/10/31/conservatives-fundraising-liberals_a_23576839/">continued to decline</a>. This was of particular concern because of the extra costs the party had to bear paying Singh’s salary and travel, costs that would have been covered by the House of Commons had he already held a seat.</p>
<h2>A polarized electorate</h2>
<p>Singh has also had to deal with the potential polarization of the election question as a choice between Trudeau’s progressive Canada and the increasingly divisive and nativist Canada envisioned by the Conservatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261053/original/file-20190226-150724-ni70x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">One of the challenges for Jagmeet Singh will be to make sure the Liberals don’t squeeze out the NDP with progressive voters. Here, Singh and his wife Gurkiran pose with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>There is still every possibility that the coming federal election could again see the Liberals wrap themselves in a progressive banner and squeeze the NDP out of a two-party race, but now that Singh has a seat in Parliament, he will be better able to insert himself into that debate.</p>
<p>The importance of this byelection win is that it allows Singh to draw a hard line under the first 17 months of his leadership. Even before the byelection was called, Singh had already started to make changes in personnel and direction that bode well for his future.</p>
<p>In November, <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/news/ndp-announces-jennifer-howard-chief-staff">the NDP announced</a> that Jennifer Howard would be taking over as Singh’s new chief of staff. Howard has held multiple cabinet appointments in the Manitoba governments of Gary Doer and Greg Selinger, at one point serving as finance minister, but, more importantly, has held staff and leadership positions at all levels of the NDP. She represents the experience and wealth of political knowledge that was seen as lacking.</p>
<p>It is also important to remember that Singh is still relatively new to the job and has time to recover. In this regard, the recent history of the NDP can provide some context.</p>
<h2>Layton needed eight years</h2>
<p>When he was elected leader of the NDP in January 2003, Jack Layton was a more experienced politician, having served as a Toronto City and Metro councillor for over 20 years. Yet it still took him eight years to create the conditions that allowed the NDP to make its <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/layton-rides-orange-wave-ndp-becomes-opposition-1.638773">breakthrough in the 2011 federal election</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261052/original/file-20190226-150705-1ab567r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former NDP leader Jack Layton needed eight years before the party had a breakout in the 2011 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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<p>Layton avoided some of Singh’s early mistakes, selecting leadership rival and veteran MP Bill Blaikie (whom I worked for at the time) as his parliamentary leader, for example, but he started with a much smaller caucus without a presence in Québec and with only a minimal presence in Ontario.</p>
<p>There’s no question that Singh’s first year did not go as planned. The momentum and excitement that surrounded his election as leader could have boosted fundraising, mobilized members and helped establish his presence on the national stage. And Singh’s slow start could ultimately end up affecting his ability to succeed in the future. </p>
<p>But this byelection win presents him with a chance to change the narrative and become a contender in the coming federal election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Weier has been an active member of the NDP for 20 years. He has worked for the federal and Ontario parties as a legislative assistant and press secretary and was an active supporter of Jagmeet Singh’s leadership campaign.</span></em></p>Jagmeet Singh needed to win the byelection in Burnaby South. Now that the NDP leader will have a seat in Parliament, can he still turn around the party’s fortunes before this year’s federal election?Jonathan Weier, PhD Candidate, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048862018-11-15T22:38:22Z2018-11-15T22:38:22ZLet’s create climate policy that will survive elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244168/original/file-20181106-74760-3281a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks at an anti-carbon-tax rally in Calgary, in October 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The election of Ontario Premier Doug Ford has brought major changes to the province’s climate change file. His government has scrapped Ontario’s cap-and-trade program and has vowed to fight a federally imposed carbon tax. But he has yet to unveil his climate plan.</p>
<p>For those of us with an interest in climate policy, these choices are difficult to understand. And yet they should not be a surprise. Indeed, politicians continue to showcase their clear reluctance to accept climate change and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-award-recognizes-how-economic-forces-can-fight-climate-change-104520">economic modelling</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-metro-morning-1.4573467">March 2018 interview with CBC</a>, Ford said he “absolutely, to a certain degree” trusted climate science. That’s better than Goldie Ghamari, now the member of provincial parliament for Ottawa-Carleton, who <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-goldie-ghamari-climate-change-1.4675687">publicly rejected the science</a> and then won by nearly 30 points.</p>
<p>The unwillingness to act on climate change partly reflects the political divide in Canada. A 2018 Abacus Data poll showed <a href="https://ecofiscal.ca/reports/polling-results-perceptions-carbon-pricing-canada/">79 per cent of those on the left, but only 41 per cent of those on the right, trusted the idea that humans were the cause of our warming planet</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-conservatives-are-blind-to-climate-change-91549">Why some conservatives are blind to climate change</a>
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</em>
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<p>Rigorous research on climate change opinions in 56 countries showed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2943">political orientations and ideologies are more powerful forces than education, gender and experience with extreme weather</a>. The real-life conclusion? It’s difficult to overcome partisanship’s impact in shaping continued climate denial and inaction.</p>
<h2>Wind energy bias</h2>
<p>My own <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518305755">recent research</a> investigated whether similar political divides applied to wind energy developments in Canada. Our team looked at how partisanship and political discourse shaped public opinions of local wind energy in Ontario and Nova Scotia from 2014 to 2015. </p>
<p>We expected support to fall more or less in line with left-to-right patterns of environmentalism: those on the left would support wind farms and those on the right would not. </p>
<p>Instead we found that in Ontario, the split occurred between those who backed the government (Liberal), which supported wind developments, and those who stood behind one of the opposition parties (New Democratic Party and Progressive Conservatives). </p>
<p>The Ontario residents surveyed were three times more likely to oppose local turbines than those in Nova Scotia. One Ontario resident said a local member of provincial parliament had been elected on a platform to “stop the turbines.” </p>
<p>The fact that residents who aligned themselves with the NDP and PC parties opposed local turbines says something about the way the Liberals presided over major turbine developments. </p>
<p>Nova Scotia, on the other hand, saw no significant divide. Non-partisan support for wind energy was driven by the fact that Conservatives had brought forward wind energy in the first place. As one policy expert stated, it was difficult for subsequent NDP and Liberal governments to oppose such progressive policies, and thus renewable energy never was “really an election issue.” </p>
<h2>Policy breeds opposition</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961730124X">My past research</a> shows that wind-energy development can suffer from a lack of fairness when it comes to local decision-making and who benefits financially. In both provinces, not having control over the outcome led to opposition to wind energy.</p>
<p>In Ontario, the list of “<a href="http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/not-a-willing-host/">unwilling host communities</a>” continues to grow. At last count, the number was 90.</p>
<p>This anti-wind sentiment has influenced the past three Ontario elections, including this year’s. The election of Ford’s majority government in June led to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/758-renewable-energy-cancelled-1.4746293">cancellation of 758 renewable energy projects</a> and the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-government-moves-to-scrap-green-energy-act-2/">dismantling of the Green Energy Act</a>.</p>
<p>And while the cancellation of renewable energy projects constrains our ability to attract green businesses, the Conservatives are correct that the Green Energy Act <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26256490?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">silenced community voices</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244166/original/file-20181106-74783-8g0uls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A 44-turbine wind farm near Port Alma, Ont., near the shores of Lake Erie in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Dave Chidley)</span></span>
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<p>Almost a decade ago, former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/new-law-will-keep-nimby-ism-from-stopping-green-projects-ont-premier-1.805978">touted the legislation</a> as a way to stop the “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) attitudes that he saw as the major impediment to wind energy acceptance. This approach only helped fuel what has become well-organized, anti-wind coalitions in Ontario. </p>
<h2>A long-term, low-carbon pathway</h2>
<p>So where do we go from here? Should we learn to live with the dismantling of climate policy when those on the right are elected? </p>
<p>Places like Nova Scotia and Texas show there are alternatives. In the Lone Star State, politicians and residents of right-leaning, wind-turbine communities have embraced low-carbon energy. Republicans there fight for wind turbines because of economic benefits and the promise of low-cost energy for the future. </p>
<p>A compromise between poorly designed renewable-energy policy and a complete lack thereof can exist. This “middle ground” can be found via the promotion of community-based and <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-carbon-taxes-we-need-wholescale-energy-transitions-105612">Indigenous ownership structures that promote autonomy and keep financial benefits in the pockets of nearby residents</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-carbon-taxes-we-need-wholescale-energy-transitions-105612">More than carbon taxes, we need wholescale energy transitions</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Given the power of partisanship in our current political climate, environmental policies must work within existing socio-political settings. These policies need to stress <a href="https://theenergymix.com/2018/05/09/renewables-created-10-3-million-jobs-worldwide-in-2016-could-hit-28-million-by-2050/">the jobs</a> and <a href="https://theenergymix.com/2018/09/11/climate-action-in-cities-could-create-13-7-million-jobs-prevent-1-3-million-premature-deaths/">improvements in public health</a> that come with them. </p>
<p>If governments truly want their initiatives to last, they need to appeal to the entire political spectrum. Conservatives were able to achieve this in Nova Scotia, when they took leadership in renewable energy. Where and when the left is in power, they must keep in mind how the right may find fault. </p>
<p>We need bold climate policy. If its long-term viability is blown down by changing political winds, its effectiveness will be short lived.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-cities-sick-and-we-need-to-act-78447">Climate change is making cities sick and we need to act</a>
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<p>We don’t have to look too far to see examples of where this approach could be applied. Justin Trudeau and his federal carbon tax may be “Exhibit A.” Major policy shifts on electric vehicle adoption, high-speed rail and transformations in renewable energy will follow. </p>
<p>As we were reminded by the United Nations in October, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">the clock is ticking when it comes to climate action</a>, and education alone will not change the minds of the voting public. I hope politicians are listening, so that the outcome of the next election is more climate-friendly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104886/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chad Walker has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada as well as from the George C. Metcalfe Foundation to study wind energy policy and development outcomes in Ontario and Nova Scotia. He is currently part of a team at Queen's University working with Indigenous community partners that was awarded a Canadian Institutes of Health Research grant to study strength and autonomy through renewable energy development. </span></em></p>In order to address a warming planet over the medium and long-term, climate policy must be designed to be adaptable and indeed attractive to those across the political spectrum.Chad Walker, Postdoctoral Fellow, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1014942018-08-23T13:52:50Z2018-08-23T13:52:50ZAfter a slow start, South Africa can still speed ahead on SDGs. Here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232476/original/file-20180817-165967-14oahr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa is struggling to eradicate poverty.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three years ago 193 member states of the United Nations adopted the world’s most ambitious set of development goals yet. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld">(SDGs)</a> cover everything from eradicating poverty to protecting biodiversity, building resilient infrastructure and fostering responsive institutions.</p>
<p>The commitment on the part of both developed and developing countries to meet the goals isn’t in question. But many are struggling to make sure the 2030 targets are met.</p>
<p>Some of the biggest barriers to implementation are policy incoherence and ensuring that policy making <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-barriers-that-make-it-difficult-for-african-states-to-use-research-for-policy-86492">is informed by evidence</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, the SDGs require governments to stop <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/sd.1745">developing policy in silos</a> and to start working across departments. This a challenge for most, if not all. </p>
<p>South Africa too has been relatively slow in implementing the ambitious SDGs. There are a number of reasons for the slow start. </p>
<p>Like many middle-income countries, it too struggles to coordinate policy initiatives. Also, national priorities’ emphases differ from those of the SDGs. This shouldn’t be surprising. Many of the country’s developmental challenges are the result of a particular part of history, notably the legacy of <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://sasdghub.org/new-publication-implementing-the-sdgs-in-south-africa/">a recent publication</a> by the <a href="http://sasdghub.org">South African SDG Hub</a>, a national facility aimed at fostering evidence-informed policy making, experts from government, academia and development partners highlight further constraints to progress. This includes the poor state of the government’s research and analytical capacity, policy uncertainty, and the fact that the country doesn’t invest enough in science, technology and innovation.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the relatively slow start, South Africa has the capacity to speed up implementing the goals. A practical motivation for doing so is that it’s due to present its first <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/vnrs/">voluntary national review</a> next year. This is basically a report card on progress on the implementation of the SDGs. </p>
<h2>Picking up speed</h2>
<p>The three most important items on the country’s to do list are to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>finalise a national SDG coordination mechanism</p></li>
<li><p>build on existing momentum in the public, private and civil society sectors, and</p></li>
<li><p>capitalise on the expertise at universities.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>National SDG coordination mechanism</strong>: Effective coordination is a must-have for any country interested in realising the SDGs.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://sasdghub.org/features-of-effective-sdg-co-ordination-mechanisms-emerging-good-practices/">recent report</a> by the South African SDG Hub collected and synthesised good practices from around the globe. It also identified features needed to build an effective national coordination mechanism. </p>
<p>Arguably the most important one is political buy-in at the highest level. In countries with the expressed support from their heads of state, progress is quicker. Without such high level support, such a mechanism will struggle to drive the implementation of the SDGs. </p>
<p>Experiences in other countries have shown that inclusivity is also important. This means that academia, civil society and the private sector should be represented. They must also be able to make a substantive contribution to national implementation of the SDGs. </p>
<p>Additionally, the participation of non-state actors will assist with awareness-raising across layers of society. Bringing together this wealth of expertise and experience will enable reliable recommendations. </p>
<p><strong>Existing momentum:</strong> Simply put, the growing number of activities aimed at realising the SDGs need to be connected.</p>
<p>In many ways the South African government is already addressing the SDGs, albeit indirectly. This includes initiatives aimed at using technology to <a href="http://www.health.gov.za/index.php/mom-connect">improve maternal health</a>as well as <a href="https://www.education.gov.za/Programmes/QualityAssuranceandSkillsDevelopment.aspx">quality of education</a> to <a href="http://www.nda.agric.za/docs/media/NATIONAL%20POLICYon%20food%20and%20nutrirition%20security.pdf">improving food security</a>. On a technical level, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za">Statistics South Africa</a> has launched a baseline indicator report on the SDGs.</p>
<p>Civil society and the private sector are also increasingly focusing on the SDGs. Many initiatives can be cited, notably innovative programmes aimed at addressing <a href="https://www.yes4youth.co.za">youth unemployment</a>, and promoting <a href="https://www.yasdg.com">youth entrepreneurship</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many of these and other SDG initiatives remain disconnected. Creating synergies shouldn’t be difficult though. The trick lies in mapping, connecting and supporting what’s already out there.</p>
<p><strong>University expertise:</strong> Universities have the expertise and, more often than not, the motivation to support the realisation of the SDGs.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://ap-unsdsn.org/regional-initiatives/universities-sdgs/university-sdg-guide/">report</a> by the <a href="http://unsdsn.org/">Sustainable Development Solutions Network</a>, the premier academic network that supports the SDGs, universities can equip students with the knowledge and skills to implement complex development agendas. In their research, they have the opportunity to experiment with innovative and multidisciplinary solutions. And, as relatively neutral convening spaces, universities can initiate and facilitate cross-sectoral dialogue.</p>
<h2>Towards 2030</h2>
<p>Despite its weaknesses, the 2030 Agenda has the potential to improve the lives of South Africa’s most vulnerable groups and individuals. This is especially so in the current environment, wherein resources are constrained. But in order to do so, society needs to coordinate and support existing activities and expertise better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Willem Fourie co-ordinates the South African SDG Hub at the University of Pretoria.</span></em></p>Despite a relatively slow start, South Africa can speed up its implementation of the SDGs.Willem Fourie, Associate Professor at the Albert Luthuli Centre for Responsible Leadership, Co-ordinator of the South African SDG Hub, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965182018-05-21T18:39:42Z2018-05-21T18:39:42ZGovernments know work and living conditions can kill us – it’s time to act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219438/original/file-20180517-26290-12tt6oc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Far more than eating green vegetables and going to the gym more often, living and working conditions have a big impact on health. Saskatchewan's new NDP leader is determined to see it reflected in public policy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Living and working conditions are the primary causes of good health, and disease and premature death as well.</p>
<p>This has been known in Canada since at least <a href="https://www.susanrosenthal.com/articles/engels-and-the-who-report">the mid-1850s</a> and any visitor to the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/population-health/population-health-approach.html">Public Health Agency of Canada’s website</a> will find ample documentation of this fact. </p>
<p>Indeed, a recent <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-003-x/2013007/article/11852-eng.htm">Statistics Canada report</a> found that 40,000 Canadians a year die prematurely because their working and living conditions are not of the quality experienced by well-off Canadians. Gaps in income and wealth kill people.</p>
<p>These living and working conditions are <a href="http://thecanadianfacts.org/">shaped by public policies</a> made by Canadian governments at all levels. These policies serve to distribute economic and social resources among the population. </p>
<p>This is why <a href="https://nation.com.pk/14-Feb-2015/who-gets-what-when-and-how">political scientist Harold Lasswell defines politics</a> as: “Who gets what, when and how.”</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.canadianscholars.ca/books/social-determinants-of-health-3rd-edition">the evidence is clear</a> that over the last three decades, these public policies have widened income and wealth disparities among Canadians, led to stagnating incomes for 60 per cent of Canadians and created an explosive increase in insecure and precarious employment — all of which contribute to disease and illness. </p>
<p>Most strikingly, <a href="https://www.unicef.ca/en/unicef-report-card-14-child-well-being-sustainable-world">Canadian children fall well behind most developed countries on numerous indices of health and well-being</a>, according to UNICEF Canada.</p>
<h2>Conditions in decline for most Canadians</h2>
<p>Yet despite the strong link between living and working conditions and health and disease, evidence shows that the situation is not improving for most Canadians, and is in fact declining for many.</p>
<p>The issue of what we call the <em>social determinants</em> of health has not made it onto any <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4750152/">public policy agenda</a> at any level of government in Canada. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="http://www.wellesleyinstitute.com/publications/perceptions-of-the-social-determinants-of-health-across-canada/">most Canadians mistakenly believe</a> achieving good health and avoiding disease and premature death is about refraining from tobacco and excessive alcohol use, exercising and eating more fruits and vegetables. </p>
<p>But the fallacy of that belief, and the role governments play in perpetuating it, has been demonstrated over and over again in <a href="https://search2.odesi.ca/#/details?uri=%2Fodesi%2Fcchs-82M0013-E-2014-Annual-component.xml">numerous studies in Canada</a> and elsewhere.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-health-resolutions-for-2020-you-might-not-be-living-a-free-life-88295">Made health resolutions for 2020? You might not be living a free life</a>
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<p>Why are politicians unwilling to go near the social determinants of health and disease, and their complicity?</p>
<p>Is it because they believe we’re incapable of understanding the connection? That wouldn’t be unreasonable given <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/4405922-why-are-canadians-not-being-told-the-truth-about-disease-/">we’re bombarded with messages from government, disease associations and the media</a> telling us relentlessly that all we need for good health is to live a so-called healthy lifestyle.</p>
<p>This serves a variety of purposes. It allows governments to avoid dealing with issues of deteriorating living and working conditions. It provides an easy fund-raising tool for disease associations. It serves as enticing clickbait for news outlets and avoids the wrath of corporate Canada, considered largely responsible for these deteriorating living and working conditions.</p>
<h2>Hope on the Prairies</h2>
<p>In the midst of all of this gloom and doom, hope is on the horizon in a Canadian Prairie province. </p>
<p>In Saskatchewan, a single voice has consistently spoken about the social determinants of health, and the relationship between government policy and health. </p>
<p>Family doctor Ryan Meili has taken on what should be the easy task of <a href="http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/amjohal/2012/07/healthy-society-interview-ryan-mieli">arguing that the goal of all public policy should be to create optimal conditions for health.</a> He wrote an accessible book, entitled <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/a-healthy-society-1"><em>A Healthy Society</em></a>, that provides a rationale for this approach. He also founded the national organization <a href="http://www.thinkupstream.net/">Upstream </a>, which aims to promote governance for health.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219436/original/file-20180517-26300-1d0g1jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ryan Meili speaks after being elected NDP leader in March 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Michael Bell</span></span>
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<p>Taking seriously the relationship between politics, public policy and health, Meili entered politics and now sits in the Saskatchewan legislature. In March, he won the leadership of the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-ndp-leadership-ryan-meili-trent-wotherspoon-1.4560240">Saskatchewan New Democratic Party</a>, the descendant of the Co-operative Commonwealth Confederation (CCF), the party that set in motion universal health care for Canadians. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219432/original/file-20180517-26274-13j7o1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tommy Douglas, former CCF member and then leader of the federal NDP, receives a standing ovation while arriving at the Palace Theatre to address an NDP rally in Hamilton, Ont. in June 1968.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
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<p>Research shows most Canadians implicitly recognize their <a href="http://www.wellesleyinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Perceptions-of-SDOH-across-Canada-2.pdf">living and working conditions shape their health.</a> </p>
<p>Anyone who’s worked in a substandard workplace in terms of health and safety conditions, struggled to make rent for a deteriorating and over-priced apartment or laboured under abusive bosses knows how profoundly their physical and emotional health can be affected.</p>
<p>The problem is that unless they enrol in university courses on the sociology and political economy of health, they rarely hear about it. Instead they’re told to go to the gym more often and to stock up on leafy green vegetables.</p>
<p>In Saskatchewan, at least, change could be imminent. Perhaps this second coming of Tommy Douglas will spur Canadians to stop blaming themselves for their diseases and poor health and instead demand governments create public policies that promote —rather than threaten — their health.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Raphael is a member of the Ontario NDP. </span></em></p>It’s not all about eating leafy green vegetables and working out: Living and working conditions have a profound impact on our health. So why are politicians avoiding taking action?Dennis Raphael, Professor of Health Policy and Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965202018-05-16T22:34:18Z2018-05-16T22:34:18ZMaple-glazed Trump? Doug Ford’s populism is Canadian-made<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219082/original/file-20180515-195308-14n90yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian and American flags fly as Doug Ford speaks during a campaign stop in Niagara Falls, Ont., on May 14, 2018. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tara Walton</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of Donald Trump’s election to the U.S. presidency in November 2016, Canadian exceptionalism has enjoyed a healthy renaissance. </p>
<p>Trump’s nativist, misogynistic, xenophobic rhetoric leading up to his election, and the turbulence that has characterized his administration since, have served as the perfect opportunity for Canadians to reassert themselves as a progressive beacon of human rights, tolerance and diversity in the world. </p>
<p>But a lingering question has lurked in the background: Could a right-wing populist in Trump’s mould succeed nationally in Canada?</p>
<p>The candidacy of Doug Ford for premier of Ontario appears to represent in the eyes of many Canadians their very own “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/30/doug-ford-ontario-conservative-trump-comparison-canada">Trump moment</a>.” </p>
<p>Ford has been accused of being a vulgar, self-interested, dangerous populist by both <a href="http://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-doug-ford-and-donald-trump-are-both-dangerous-tricksters-who-will-do-more-harm-than-good">media pundits</a> and <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ontario-election-2018/ontario-premier-wynne-calls-ford-a-bully-says-he-s-just-like-trump-1.3890743">political opponents</a> alike. </p>
<p>Ford is the brother of the late Rob Ford, the equally populist onetime mayor of Toronto who infamously struggled with substance abuse issues. Ford family drama has shown no signs of dissipating as <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-widow-sues-doug-ford-alleging-he-has-deprived-them-of-millions.html">Rob Ford’s widow, Renata, recently launched a lawsuit</a> accusing her brother-in-law of cheating her and her children out of millions since the former mayor’s death.</p>
<p>Doug Ford’s style and rhetoric have drawn direct comparisons to the 45th American president as he’s been branded a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/opinion/doug-ford-populism-canada-trump.html">Northern tinpot Trump</a>. Implicit in these comparisons is the idea that Ford, like Conservatives Kellie Leitch and Kevin O’Leary before him, is merely mimicking Trump’s divisive style of politics in an effort to stir up the same type of populist resentment that swept across the United States in 2016 and propelled him to the Oval Office.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219084/original/file-20180515-195311-lsa83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kellie Leitch is seen at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., in March 2017 as she ran unsuccessfully for the Conservative leadership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg</span></span>
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<p>Many have dismissed the comparison, downplaying Ford’s <a href="http://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-neither-a-conservative-nor-quite-a-populist-doug-ford-isnt-what-many-think">populist credentials</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/04/21/doug-ford-is-brash-but-hes-no-donald-trump.html">similarities to Trump</a>. But for those Canadians who have watched Trump in horror, and perhaps with a bit of schadenfreude, Ford represents a threat that has swept up from the south to infiltrate their peaceful, progressive, multicultural utopia.</p>
<p>While it’s convenient and comforting to position Ford as a cheap imitation of Trump’s political ideology and rhetoric, historical trends and recent developments in Canada reveal this isn’t really the case.</p>
<p>Populism, on both the left and right sides of the political spectrum, has played a formative role in electoral politics at municipal, provincial and federal levels throughout Canadian history. </p>
<p>Furthermore, while many commentators and analysts have concluded that <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books-and-media/book-reviews/review-michael-adamss-could-it-happen-here-explores-whether-canada-is-safe-from-toxic-populism/article36431266/">Canadian values simply won’t allow for the rise of the types of right-wing populism observed elsewhere</a>, this only captures one piece of the populism puzzle that is troubling other countries around the world.</p>
<h2>Historical roots of Canadian populism</h2>
<p>At the heart of populism’s lure for politicians and citizens alike are appeals to a pure, mythic people against a corrupt, unresponsive political establishment. </p>
<p>Virtually all populist leaders seek to mobilize public disaffection with the political status quo by making visible some type of crisis that requires drastic, decisive action that only a populist leader can bring about. </p>
<p>The rhetoric of these appeals will vary from one context to the next based on the political, social and cultural milieu in which populism unfurls. </p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.ca/books/about/Populism_and_Democratic_Thought_in_the_C.html?id=IDQlAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">Canada’s experiences with populism date back to the period between the First and Second World Wars</a>, when a large, well-organized agrarian populist movement sprung up across the Prairies. Opposed to the centralizing tendencies of the Ontario-based Liberal-Conservative coalition government, this movement eventually led to the formation of a number of highly successful political parties. </p>
<p>On the right, the socially conservative <a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/social-credit/">Alberta Social Credit Party</a> would govern Alberta from 1935 to 1971, appealing to supporters with its opposition to the centralizing tendencies of the federal government and the creation of a federally administered welfare state. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219196/original/file-20180516-155579-1nna1vo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former NDP leader Tommy Douglas poses in Ottawa in this October 1983 photo. Douglas, considered the father of Canadian medicare, was first elected to Parliament in 1935 as a member of the CCF.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Schwarz</span></span>
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<p>Populism also played an important historical role in the development of leftist parties. The <a href="http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/co-operative-commonwealth-federation/">Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF)</a>, eventually succeeded by the New Democratic Party, united labour activists, farmers and socialists to influence the trajectory of federal politics in Canada. </p>
<p>It led the movement for the development of a relatively strong and stable welfare state and socialist policies and programs. </p>
<h2>Right-wing populism in Canada</h2>
<p>While the left has drifted away from its populist roots, right-wing populism has continued to emerge periodically in recent Canadian political history. </p>
<p>A growing sense of western alienation and frustration with the Quebec sovereignty debate helped fuel the rise of the <a href="https://books.google.ca/books/about/The_New_Right_and_Democracy_in_Canada.html?id=iaOIAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">Reform Party</a> in the late 1980s and early 1990s. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219085/original/file-20180515-195315-1h638rp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Reform leader Preston Manning holds a copy of his party’s alternative federal budget in Ottawa on February 1995.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Tom Hanson</span></span>
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<p>Led by Preston Manning, Reform aimed to foster a divide between common, hard-working people and out-of-touch elites — in an effort to forge support for libertarian policy proposals designed to shrink the welfare state, oppose Quebec sovereignty, challenge multiculturalism, strengthen the jurisdiction of provinces and introduce greater direct democracy measures into political institutions. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news2/background/conservativeparty/uniteright_timeline.html">amalgamation of right-wing parties into the Conservative Party of Canada in 2003</a> has tempered the expression of populism as Conservative politicians have adopted the brokerage style of politics perfected by the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>But even under the leadership of Stephen Harper — a politician not considered particularly populist — the Conservatives regularly used populist rhetoric and appeals to help pass key pieces of legislation. From the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-law-and-society-la-revue-canadienne-droit-et-societe/article/criminal-justice-policy-during-the-harper-era-private-members-bills-penal-populism-and-the-criminal-code-of-canada/1A808DE27A54302968B7E1E21495DE9F">introduction of mandatory minimum sentences</a> and the <a href="https://journals.library.ualberta.ca/cjs/index.php/cjs/article/viewFile/18222/14325">scrapping of the long-form census</a>, the Harper Conservatives framed many of their most controversial policy proposals as “common sense” and supported by the majority of Canadians. </p>
<h2>What’s it all say about Doug Ford?</h2>
<p>Examining Doug Ford’s campaign in light of the history of populism in Canada ought to provoke a rethinking of the labelling of Ford as “Trump Lite.” The brand of populism being practised by Ford in the Ontario provincial election campaign does not represent the importation of an American style of politics.</p>
<p>Instead, it’s better understood as an extension of populist strategies that have proven successful for Canadian right-wing politicians in the past. </p>
<p>Ford’s appeal to the common people based in promises to protect the hard-earned money of taxpayers, to clean up corruption and shrink government spending are more in line with the tradition of Canadian populism than they are with Donald Trump. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-doug-fords-campaign-defends-take-care-of-our-own-comment-on/">For the most part</a>, Ford has stayed away from the nativist rhetoric of Trump, avoiding the topic of immigration and cultural integration altogether, preferring instead to base his appeal on economic resentment as opposed to cultural.</p>
<p>None of this is to say that Canadians concerned with the possibility of extremist political ideologies reaching the political mainstream should not oppose Ford or be concerned. </p>
<p>But to dismiss or criticize Ford as merely a Trump imitator is to ignore the evidence of racial and cultural resentment in Canada and the connection between <a href="http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/alexandre-bissonnette-inside-the-life-of-a-mass-murderer">recent hate crimes and acts of violence and right-wing extremist movements</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dear-white-people-wake-up-canada-is-racist-83124">Dear white people, wake up: Canada is racist</a>
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<p>If recent examples from Canadian politics have told us anything, it’s that mimicking populists from other parts of the world — particularly the U.S. — will not translate into electoral success. </p>
<p>The reason that Doug Ford may succeed where others like Leitch and O’Leary failed is because he represents a homegrown style of populism that connects with the cultural and political values of some Canadians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Doctoral Fellowship)</span></em></p>Branding Doug Ford as a Donald Trump impersonator obscures the history of populism in Canada.Brian Budd, Ph.D Candidate, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.