tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/pablo-iglesias-24055/articlesPablo Iglesias – The Conversation2016-11-02T13:35:07Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679702016-11-02T13:35:07Z2016-11-02T13:35:07ZThe messy politics behind Spain’s new government<p>When Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy was finally able to announce the formation of a minority government after 10 months of deadlock, he called for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/28/spain-to-get-government-after-10-month-political-impasse-mariano-rajoy">political unity</a>. The national parliament must work together to make up for lost time, he said. </p>
<p>But that unity will not easily be achieved while most other political parties are embroiled in their own internal struggles. Rajoy was only able to make his breakthrough thanks to a decision by the Socialist Party (PSOE) to abstain from a vote to allow him to form a government, rather than voting against him. That decision has split the party and led to the resignation of its leader, Pedro Sánchez.</p>
<p>Spain has endured <a href="https://theconversation.com/spain-steels-itself-for-another-election-after-months-with-no-government-60675">two elections</a> in the past year alone, and Rajoy’s centre-right People’s Party (PP) was the only major party to increase its vote and number of seats between those two votes. Rajoy’s strategists will therefore already be planning their next move. </p>
<p>The PP may be looking to dissolve parliament to call a fresh election. That could happen as early as May 2017 – as soon as is constitutionally possible. Rajoy sees a chance to secure a more stable share of the vote and even to form a majority government. It will not have escaped his attention that the PSOE’s abstention in his investiture vote was linked to its desire to avoid going to the polls at such a moment of weakness.</p>
<h2>Socialists in disarray</h2>
<p>The current political environment is challenging for social democratic parties all over the world, but the PSOE appears more hapless than most.</p>
<p>Having <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37529610">resigned</a> as party leader at the beginning of October, Sánchez stepped down from parliament altogether on the eve of Rajoy’s successful investiture vote. His departure drew a close to an alarming month of infighting for the socialists.</p>
<p>The caretaker leadership that took over was keen to avoid another election. Given how many votes the party had lost between the elections in December 2015 and June 2016 votes, its position is weak. Its chances of being able to form a government, even in coalition, were slim at best. It would have needed the support of left-wing upstart Podemos and independence-supporting regional parties. That was acceptable to Sánchez, but not to some of his opponents in the party, many of whom were involved in the caretaker leadership.</p>
<p>While the party membership generally backed Sánchez’s stance of voting against Rajoy’s minority government and forcing another election, 68 of the party’s 85 deputies abstained on the orders of the caretaker leadership.</p>
<p>Essentially, the split within the party centred on whether the Socialists should pragmatically acknowledge their own fragility and permit Rajoy to form a government on the basis that his party obtained the most seats in June, or whether, as Sánchez suggested, they should, on principle, vote against a party which has enthusiastically implemented harsh austerity. This while conspicuously failing to address numerous allegations of corruption within its own ranks. </p>
<h2>The Podemos problem</h2>
<p>Other parties have profited from the PSOE’s plight too. Podemos has wasted no time in proclaiming itself the genuine opposition to the PP government, given the decisive role played by the PSOE in securing Rajoy’s parliamentary endorsement. </p>
<p>Younger voters have been attracted to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/podemos-13452">Podemos</a> because they see both major parties as representing their parents’, or even their grandparents’, interests. Many have still not forgotten the austerity policies introduced by the PSOE when it was last in government under Rodríguez Zapatero.</p>
<p>The new-media-savvy Podemos has been a major beneficiary as austerity has borne down on the young and the poorest in society. Its critique of the status quo is immeasurably more convincing than its policies but party leader Pablo Iglesias’s Manichean approach, based on a reductionist confrontation between “the people” and the corrupt establishment, appeals to many. </p>
<p>Podemos has problems of its own, though. A disappointing performance in the June 2016 election – more than 1 million votes down on the December result – has caused division. Iglesias’ lieutenant Íñigo Errejón has advocated a more measured, pragmatic strategy to reassure voters disquieted by the leader’s often heavy-handed rhetorical spasms.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether the PSOE and Podemos are able to find common ground in order to mount a rigorous, yet constructive, opposition capable of holding the new PP government to account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After two elections and months of deadlock, a minority administration has been agreed. But the situation is far from stable.Paul Kennedy, Lecturer in Spanish and European Studies, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/624642016-07-20T19:58:33Z2016-07-20T19:58:33ZSpain’s Civil War and the Americans who fought in it: a convoluted legacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131278/original/image-20160720-31117-16v9rmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Lincoln Brigade Memorial in San Francisco.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lincoln_Brigade_Memorial_San_Francisco.jpg#/media/File:Lincoln_Brigade_Memorial_San_Francisco.jpg">Tom Hilton</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eighty years ago this week, in the Spanish North African enclave of Melilla, a group of right-wing generals staged a military coup, aimed at overthrowing Spain’s democratically elected government. </p>
<p>The July 1936 uprising unleashed what would come to be known – somewhat inaccurately – as the Spanish Civil War, a horrific conflagration that lasted almost three years. </p>
<p>The general consensus is that the war sent about a half-million Spaniards into exile, and another 500,000 to their deaths. Still today, more than <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=13800&LangID=S">100,000 Spaniards</a> lie in hundreds of <a href="http://mapadefosas.mjusticia.es/exovi_externo/CargarMapaFosas.htm">unmarked mass graves</a> strewn all over the Iberian peninsula.</p>
<p>Those mass graves still haunt contemporary Spain, and the question of how the Spanish Civil War ought to be commemorated is still far from buried, not only in Spain, but also in the U.S.</p>
<p>Just two weeks ago, when President Obama visited Spain, <a href="http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/11/inenglish/1468224007_858914.html">the gift he received</a> from Pablo Iglesias, the leader of the upstart left-wing political party Podemos, generated controversy. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"752152021105537024"}"></div></p>
<p>The present was a copy of the book <a href="http://zinnedproject.org/materials/the-lincoln-brigade/">“The Abraham Lincoln Brigade: A Picture History,”</a> and in it, Iglesias penned a dedication to President Obama: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The first Americans who came to Europe to fight against fascism were the men and women of the Lincoln Brigade. Please convey to the American people the gratitude felt by Spanish democrats for the antifascist example provided by these heroes.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>To understand the symbolism and the controversial nature of this gift, we must examine the convoluted legacy of that war whose 80th anniversary is commemorated this week. </p>
<h2>International war</h2>
<p>Pablo Iglesias’ inscription points to why the term “Civil War” is a misnomer when applied to Spain, 1936.</p>
<p>Though the Spanish war did pit Spaniard against Spaniard, the conflict quickly became international. Within days of the onset of the coup, Hitler and Mussolini intervened on the side of the insurgent generals. Before long, the Soviet Union would come to the aid of the Loyalists, also known as the Republican forces, who supported the government. </p>
<p>To the chagrin of Spain’s elected government, the U.K., France and the U.S., in full appeasement mode, decided to remain neutral. They even imposed – and enforced – <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-spanish-civil-war-a-very-short-introduction-9780192803771?cc=es&lang=en&">an embargo on the sale of arms to the Republic</a>. </p>
<p>Despite – or perhaps because of – that embargo, for the duration of the war, Spain would be on almost everybody’s mind in the U.S., whether they liked it or not. </p>
<p>Moviegoers, for example, eager to see newly released movies such as Charlie Chaplin’s “Modern Times” or Walt Disney’s “Snow White,” had to sit through newsreels depicting the new form of modern warfare being premiered in Spain. With melodramatic music swirling and swelling in the background, audiences would hear foreboding <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOUQIwDaQjc">newsreel narrators exclaiming</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“hundreds of thousands of noncombatants suffer the indescribable horrors of a continuous nightmare of fear and destruction.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FOUQIwDaQjc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Second Year of Spain’s Civil War’ at 1'30"</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The new medium of photojournalism – <a href="http://time.com/3638051/capas-falling-soldier-the-modest-birth-of-an-iconic-picture/">Life Magazine</a> began circulation in 1936 – would bring fresh and horrifying images of the faraway conflict into the living rooms of average Americans. </p>
<p>Indeed, the war in Spain was felt with such immediacy in the U.S. that in an unprecedented display of international solidarity, some <a href="http://www.alba-valb.org/about-us/faqs/">2,800 American men and women</a> risked life and limb to travel to Spain and join the International Brigades: the 35,000 volunteers from 50 nations who were recruited and organized by the Communist International to defend Spain’s Republic. </p>
<p>The first contingent of Americans arrived to Spain in January of 1937, and they called themselves the “Abraham Lincoln Battalion,” invoking the leader who had successfully presided over a Civil War in their own country. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131163/original/image-20160719-8005-1dt4rlt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. volunteers in Spain, spring 1938.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">New York University's Abraham Lincoln Brigade Archives</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ernest Hemingway’s portrait of Robert Jordan in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/books/99/07/04/specials/hemingway-forwhom.html">“For Whom The Bell Tolls”</a> would become the iconic image of an American volunteer in the Spanish Civil War. But if Hemingway’s protagonist was a solitary and rugged WASP from Montana, most of the nonfiction volunteers emerged from vast, politically active communities, which were decidedly <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=2509">urban, working-class and ethnic</a>. </p>
<p>The closest thing to a rifle that most of the volunteers had ever handled before Spain was probably a picket sign. Unlike Hemingway’s outdoorsman, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUkRP_9o8Hg">real-life volunteers</a> were likely to have had more experience sleeping on tenement fire escapes than in field tents.</p>
<p>And for each individual who made the ultimate sacrifice of taking up arms in Spain, there were thousands of Loyalist sympathizers who stayed behind. <a href="http://www.mcny.org/exhibition/facing-fascism">They raised funds</a> to send medical supplies to the besieged government. They urged the FDR government to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=00wEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA19&lpg=PA19&dq=Life+the+embargo+against+loyalist+spain&source=bl&ots=g38tFEOA6J&sig=wKBwhFnBc9BbfS7VkHFQ2I9qtSc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiI24rX9P_NAhWG4yYKHR2XD1YQ6AEIJTAB#v=onepage&q=Life%20the%20embargo%20against%20loyalist%20spain&f=false">“Lift the embargo Against Loyalist Spain.”</a> They did their bit, as the popular slogan went, <a href="http://libraries.ucsd.edu/speccoll/visfront/oso.html">“to make Madrid the tomb of fascism.”</a> </p>
<h2>Anti-fascist war</h2>
<p>The Republic, hamstrung by the embargo, and splintered by internal differences, eventually fell. Franco’s troops marched into Madrid in April of 1939. Exactly six months later, Hitler invaded Poland and, <a href="http://time.com/3194657/world-war-ii-anniversary/">according to most standard accounts</a>, World War II was officially underway. </p>
<p>The horrors of that war help explain why the memory of Spain was subsequently eclipsed and almost forgotten. But there were other forces at work that would contribute to the transformation of how Spain would be remembered. </p>
<p>The fact is that, at the time, for many contemporary observers, the war in Spain was of a piece with the war against Hitler. </p>
<p>For starters, the Lincoln volunteers frequently depicted themselves as soldiers attempting to stave off another world war. In November, 1937, for example, volunteer <a href="http://www.alba-valb.org/resources/lessons/document-library/letter-from-hyman-katz-to-his-mother">Hy Katz</a> would write home to his mom:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“If we sit by and let them grow stronger by taking Spain, they will move on to France and will not stop there; and it won’t be long before they get to America. Realizing this, can I sit by and wait until the beasts get to my very door – until it is too late, and there is no one I can call on for help? And would I even deserve help from others when the trouble comes upon me, if I were to refuse help to those who need it today? If I permitted such a time to come – as a Jew and a progressive, I would be among the first to fall under the axe of the fascists; – all I could do then would be to curse myself and say, ‘Why didn’t I wake up when the alarm-clock rang?’”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131147/original/image-20160719-8014-1a674yg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=612&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">First National Conference of the Veterans of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade n 1938. Robert Raven, in the middle, lost his eyesight while fighting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:First_National_Conference_of_the_Veterans_of_the_Abraham_Lincoln_Brigade.jpg#/media/File:First_National_Conference_of_the_Veterans_of_the_Abraham_Lincoln_Brigade.jpg">Harris&Ewing, Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>In March of 1945, President Roosevelt himself, in a <a href="http://www.albavolunteer.org/2011/02/wikileaks-avant-la-wiki-fdr-on-franco-in-1945/">missive</a> to a diplomat, would characterize the continuity he perceived between the Spanish war and WWII, between the Axis and Franco’s regime:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Having been helped to power by Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, and having patterned itself along totalitarian lines, the present regime in Spain is naturally the subject of distrust by a great many American citizens […] Most certainly we do not forget Spain’s official position with and assistance to our Axis enemies at a time when the fortunes of war were less favorable to us, nor can we disregard the activities, aims, organizations, and public utterances of the Falange [Spain’s Fascist party], both past and present.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even a publication like “Stars and Stripes,” a semi-official organ of the U.S. Armed Forces, would, in its European edition of July 1945, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ALBAclassroom/photos/a.1546264042353855.1073741828.1543596215953971/1558352301145029/?type=3&theater">unhesitatingly affirm</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Nine years ago last week, the first blow was struck in World War II. On July 17, 1936, in the picturesque garrison town of Melilla, in Spanish Morocco, a Spanish general and his Moroccan regiments proclaimed civil war against the infant, five-year-old Republic and its government…” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 1945, the general contours of how the Spanish Civil War was likely to be remembered into the future were quite clear: as part and parcel of the long struggle against international fascism, perhaps even as the opening salvo of World War II. </p>
<p>But a funny thing happened on the way to the fifties…</p>
<h2>Cold War</h2>
<p>Between 1945 and 1955, Francisco Franco managed to refashion himself completely. No longer an ally of the Axis – in fact, he claimed that he had never been such a thing. Franco repackaged himself as a stalwart anti-communist, ruling over a strategic land mass at the corner of Africa and Europe. <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Franco-Biography-Paul-Preston/dp/0465025153">And it worked</a>.</p>
<p>If, for FDR, Franco had been an illegitimate ruler, for Truman and Eisenhower, the generalissimo would become a crucial partner in the war between “freedom” and “communism.” Truman and <a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1243&dat=19591219&id=5DtYAAAAIBAJ&sjid=XPcDAAAAIBAJ&pg=1234,6171957&hl=en">Eisenhower</a> helped end the Franco regime’s post-war diplomatic ostracism. In exchange, the U.S. got to build <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/sp1953.asp">an archipelago of Cold War military bases</a> on Spanish soil. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131150/original/image-20160719-7906-1oxpwlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">General Franco and President Eisenhower in Madrid in 1959.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Franco_eisenhower_1959_madrid.jpg">US National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As Franco morphed from “Adolph’s Man in Madrid” to “Ike’s Man in Madrid,” and as the Spanish Civil War came to be viewed more and more through the retrospective lens of the Cold War, much history would get rewritten, on both sides of the Atlantic. </p>
<p>Franco actively <a href="http://www.albavolunteer.org/2011/02/the-resynchronization-of-a-regime-1940-1950/">destroyed or altered evidence</a> of his dalliance with the Axis. And in the U.S., as historian <a href="http://www.kentstateuniversitypress.com/2014/from-guernica-to-human-rights/">Peter Carroll reminds us</a>, it was precisely in anti-communist crusader <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/joseph-mccarthy">Joseph McCarthy’s</a> 1950s that George Orwell’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Homage-Catalonia-George-Orwell/dp/0156421178">“Homage to Catalonia”</a> became a fixture of the Cold War canon. Orwell’s book was a powerful indictment of the Communist Party’s ruthless behavior in the war, and it was used to cast a shadow over the experiences and motivations of the Lincoln Brigade. </p>
<p>Before long, in both Spain and the U.S., the Spanish Civil War would be talked about not so much as an early battle of the anti-fascist World War II, but rather as a <a href="http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1812421-wolfftestimony.html">chapter in the annals of communist mischief and perfidy</a>. </p>
<p>The actions of American volunteers, rather than being seen as heroic and prescient, would become suspect. And that is why, even 80 years on, Iglesias’s gift to Obama could still seem laden with symbolism and wrapped in controversy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James D. Fernandez is Vice-Chair of the Board of Governors of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade Archives (ALBA).</span></em></p>For many contemporary observers, the Spanish Civil War was seen as very much of a piece with the war against Hitler and Mussolini. But then things changed. Why?James D. Fernandez, Professor of Spanish and Portuguese, Vice-President, Board of Governors, Abraham Lincoln Brigade Archives, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/614652016-06-27T16:25:11Z2016-06-27T16:25:11ZOnce again a Spanish election saves the establishment and deals Podemos a blow<p>Judging by the results of Spain’s <a href="http://www.thelocal.es/20160626/spain-election-results">second general election in six months</a>, held just three days after the Brexit referendum, Spanish opinion pollsters are as unreliable as their British counterparts.</p>
<p>Although all polls correctly predicted that Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) would once again obtain the largest number of seats, almost all of them confidently forecast that leftist insurgents Podemos, this time in alliance with the post-Communist United Left (IU) under the name of Unidos Podemos (UP), would condemn the Socialist PSOE to third place, and thus to irrelevance. </p>
<p>But while the PP was able to improve on its performance last time around by picking up 14 more seats for a total of 137, UP obtained precisely the same number of seats – 71 – as Podemos and IU did separately in the election of six months ago, which failed to yield a government.</p>
<p>In fact, the UP drew more than 1m votes fewer than its two component parties did at the last election, and it failed to live up to predictions that it would overtake the flagging socialists of the PSOE.</p>
<p>The other relative newcomer to the Spanish political arena, Ciudadanos, obtained perhaps the most disappointing result of all the major parties. Even though its vote declined by less than 1% it won just 32 seats, down from the 40 it netted in December. The party’s leader, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spain-elections-albert-rivera-is-the-new-boy-in-spanish-politics-and-kingmaker-in-waiting-a6773391.html">Albert Rivera</a>, has complained that his party was unduly punished by an unjust electoral system.</p>
<h2>The establishment survives</h2>
<p>In the end, the PP vote has not only remained solid, but has in fact grown since the last election. Although the party continues to be mired in a seemingly never-ending torrent of <a href="http://www.thelocal.es/20160128/nine-spanish-corruption-scandals-that-will-take-your-breath-away">corruption allegations</a> and Mariano Rajoy consistently obtains the <a href="https://theconversation.com/spain-steels-itself-for-another-election-after-months-with-no-government-60675">worst ratings</a> of any of the leaders of the four main parties, the PP’s status as Spain’s dominant party has not been seriously challenged since it entered office five years ago. </p>
<p>This raises the question of whether the PP would be even more successful under alternative leadership. Although still well short of an overall majority, the party is now in a position to govern Spain as a minority administration, since there’s hardly an appetite for a third general election within a year. The question for the PP is whether a spell in government can offer the party the chance of a much-needed renewal.</p>
<p>For the PSOE, meanwhile, the result is something of a relief, given that many had written off its chances of withstanding the challenge from the left. But even though it’s managed to survive as the second largest party, the PSOE is still unmistakably in decline, blighted by the same malaise that’s <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21695887-centre-left-sharp-decline-across-europe-rose-thou-art-sick">eroding social democratic parties all over Europe</a>. </p>
<p>Faced with what will inevitably be a relatively weak government, the PSOE will have the next four years to burnish its credentials as a more credible alternative government capable of stepping in – especially if the Spanish people finally draws the line at the PP’s seeming incapacity to rein in the corruption within its ranks. </p>
<p>Party leader Pedro Sánchez can also take heart from the fact that his main leadership challenger, Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, hardly covered herself with glory when the PP overtook the PSOE in her home region.</p>
<h2>Left out</h2>
<p>Further left, things are rather more bleak. Podemos, in its latest guise as part of UP, has good reason to feel disappointed. </p>
<p>Whatever their criticism of swashbuckling leader Pablo Iglesias over the last two years, Podemos’s opponents have been unable to deny Iglesias’s aptitude in the area of political strategy and marketing which has taken his party from strength to strength. Given the disappointing result, this reputation for deftness will be reassessed and Iglesias will be a diminished figure. </p>
<p>He squandered much of his cachet with the electorate between the two elections. He had it in his power to evict the PP from office in March, but he instead chose to vote with Rajoy against a PSOE-led government. He may now rue that decision, as well as his choice to form an alliance with the post-Communists instead of trying to broaden Podemos’s appeal across the political spectrum, as advocated by his lieutenant, Íñigo Errejón.</p>
<p>Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos, meanwhile, will be deeply despondent at its poor result. Polling has indicated that his party’s voters are far from loyal, and it appears that a significant proportion of them has gravitated back to the PP. The animosity between Rivera and Rajoy has been plain in the wrangling since last December, so it remains to be seen whether Ciudadanos will provide the support that the PP government requires over the next four years.</p>
<p>Over the coming weeks the PP will nevertheless try to secure Ciudadanos’s backing, together with that of the Basque Nationalist party, the PNV, which has five deputies, and that of the Canaries Coalition, which has a single seat. If it can wrangle their support, the PP will have the support of 175 deputies, just one short of an overall majority. Although it may take two votes to get Rajoy endorsed as prime minister, a PP government is now on the cards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61465/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spain couldn’t form a government after its last election, so it had to try again. And it looks like the radicals are shut out.Paul Kennedy, Lecturer in Spanish and European Studies, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/558842016-03-07T15:18:47Z2016-03-07T15:18:47ZJust a reminder that Spain still doesn’t have a government<p>There appears to be little chance of Spain’s political stalemate being broken any time soon. Just listen to the divisive tone of <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/parliament-rejects-socialist-sanchezs-bid-to-form-spains-government-1456948996">parliamentary debates</a> held in the first week of March – two-and-a-half-months after a <a href="http://nottspolitics.org/2015/12/14/the-2015-spanish-general-election-how-a-sea-change-may-not-yet-have-reached-the-shore-of-spanish-politics/">national election</a> failed to deliver a government. </p>
<p>Pedro Sánchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) had sought to form a coalition government with the centre-right <a href="http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456308182_056329.html">Ciudadanos</a> (Citizens) Party. He secured the backing of his own party and his proposed coalition partner but failed to get enough support from other MPs following heated debate in the chamber. </p>
<p>In the end, he gathered just 131 votes – well short of the simple majority required to pass a vote in the 350-seat parliament. Crucially, the 69 deputies from left-wing collective <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/podemos">Podemos</a> blocked Sánchez’s bid to become prime minister by voting against him.</p>
<p>This is the first time in Spain’s 40 years as a democracy that a candidate standing for prime minister has failed to win the necessary parliamentary support. It now seems likely that fresh elections will be held in June. The only other option would be for the country’s politicians to display a capacity for compromise that has so far evaded them.</p>
<h2>Why the stalemate?</h2>
<p>At first glance, it’s surprising that the largest party, Mariano Rajoy’s Partido Popular (PP), has not been able to piece together a coalition with smaller party Ciudadanos.</p>
<p>Rajoy was prime minister between 2011 and 2015 and has been acting as a caretaker in the role since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/spain-votes-for-change-but-has-no-idea-what-government-itll-end-up-with-52583">December election</a>. Together the two parties have 163 seats – just 13 short of the 176 needed for an overall majority.</p>
<p>In the past, this shortfall might have been made good by calling on the support of the centre-right Catalan nationalists. They provided vital backing to minority PSOE and Popular Party governments in the 1990s, for example. </p>
<p>But those same Catalan nationalists have started to push so hard for <a href="https://theconversation.com/catalan-election-a-leap-into-the-unknown-48262">independence</a> from Spain that they cannot be considered acceptable allies for any of the parties hoping to form a Spanish government. </p>
<p>A PP-Ciudadanos coalition has also been scuppered by the antipathy displayed by Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera towards Rajoy. It now looks like Rajoy’s resignation would be a prerequisite of any future understanding between the two parties.</p>
<p>A seemingly never-ending stream of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/27/mariano-rajoy-spaniards-cant-stomach-stench-of-corruption-peoples-party">corruption allegations</a>, implicating senior members of the PP, up to and including Rajoy himself, has also deterred other parties from seeking an agreement with the party.</p>
<p>Rajoy has nevertheless indicated that he has no intention of stepping down. For the time being, he insists that being the leader of the largest party entitles him to stay on as caretaker prime minister, or at the head of a “grand coalition” of the PP, the PSOE and Ciudadanos.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>The PP has 123 seats in parliament, which makes it difficult for any of the other parties to form a coalition government. As has been noted, Podemos’s willingness to vote alongside the PP against a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition was sufficient to put an end to that initiative.</p>
<p>The obvious alternative is therefore a coalition of the left, the option favoured by Podemos. If the PSOE was able to put together a deal with Podemos and United Left (IU), it would have 161 seats. That would still be short of the 176 needed for an overall majority but would make a minority administration possible. But Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is hostile towards doing a deal with the PSOE. At any rate, Podemos’s insistence that a referendum on Catalan independence be included in any coalition agreement effectively renders any accord between Sánchez and Iglesias impossible.</p>
<p>Sánchez, for his part, maintains that a cross-party deal of left and right – excluding the PP – is the only means of forming a viable government.</p>
<p>And so the deadlock continues. Either the parties form a government within the next two months, and by 2 May at the very latest, or new elections will have to take place on 26 June. Based on their failure so far to put their differences aside, it seems unlikely that a government will be formed in that time. </p>
<p>Even then, polling suggests that fresh elections won’t break the deadlock either. It currently looks as though the PSOE will once again win fewer seats than the PP. It will, however, be interesting to see if voters reward Ciudadanos with greater support after its attempts to form a government with the PSOE. Similarly, Podemos could be punished by the electorate for blocking a government from being formed. </p>
<p>Spain is facing an uncertain future. The electorate has opted for change – albeit on the basis of a spectacularly fragmented set of general election results – but the bitter divisions between the major parties are preventing that change from taking place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55884/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Parliamentarians have again failed to form a coalition, nearly three months after the election.Paul Kennedy, Lecturer in Spanish and European Studies, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/519052016-01-19T19:33:13Z2016-01-19T19:33:13ZTrendy electoral superheroes: from the Americas to Europe, the populists confront us<p>A bizarre breed of electoral superheroes is emerging across the political landscape: the populists. Win or lose, they are competing and advancing. </p>
<p>The populist breed is not a media invention or effect; they have been around for decades in Western politics. Although they sometimes rise, sometimes fade, and their antagonistic identity politics and appeal to the disenchanted are hardly new, they are becoming more refined and even <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/17/russell-brand-nigel-farage-anti-politics">trendy</a>. </p>
<p>Populists represent today’s politics of anti-politics. To keep them at a safe distance from power, middle-ground players should learn more about them.</p>
<h2>Rallying ‘the people’ through division</h2>
<p>Enlightenment philosopher John Locke <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=vjYIAAAAQAAJ&pg=PA373&dq=an+essay+concerning+human+understanding+speech+the+great+bond&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi694qJ6aPKAhWHJZQKHTGSCK4Q6AEIGzAA#v=onepage&q=an%20essay%20concerning%20human%20understanding%20speech%20the%20great%20bond&f=false">wrote</a> that speech is “the great bond that holds society together”. Paradoxically, speech can also be a great divider, as each confronting us-and-them statement by, for example, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/donald-trump-muslim-ban-immigration/">Donald Trump</a>, demonstrates. </p>
<p>No matter if populists are right or left, rich or poor, businessmen, academics or ex-military officers, they use speech to bond with the like-minded (“the people”, the disenchanted or excluded) and alienate the rest – usually the conventional, cosmopolitan or middle ground.</p>
<p>As populism is a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00690.x/abstract">political communication style</a>, it can be confusing, fuzzy or volatile. This is why Republican presidential frontrunner Trump, a reactionary xenophobe, and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, a left-wing, anti-Wall Street activist, can be represented as two American populists in the <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-populism-365052">same story</a>. They share a divisive and dividing communication style.</p>
<p>Comparing them with middle-ground elite players such as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, or Angela Merkel in Europe, makes clearer the essence of populism: it resents conventional elites, dislikes dialogue or consensus and has savvy ways to connect with the basic feelings and cravings of ordinary people. And it is informal: populism is an act of speech. </p>
<p>Populism can be defined then as a political communication style in the <a href="https://www.book2look.com/embed/9781317439561">construction of power and identity</a>. It thrives on the use of elements of:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>culture (shared values, traditions, nationalism, patriotism)</p></li>
<li><p>all available media tools</p></li>
<li><p>non-mediatic (grassroots, community-orientated) tactics and tools</p></li>
<li><p>alternative compelling vision and polarising emotional speech.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>How populism and its dangers are normalised</h2>
<p>Populism is now naturalised, normalised, as an everyday happening in electoral processes around the world. Populists are not only competing within democracy but gaining positions of power. </p>
<p>Instead of slipping into the gaps between the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.00184/abstract">“pragmatic” and “redemptive”</a> faces of democracy, various populists seem to be incarnating the “redemptive” face. They position themselves as the “saviours” of ordinary people against the often “pragmatic”, aloof, socially disconnected political elites. </p>
<p>One of the dangers of this lies in the populist style’s un-pluralistic, intolerant nature and tendency to develop a personality cult. The construction of “the people” is not based on respect for “the other” and plurality of ideas and debate. Instead, it relies on antagonistic views aimed at connecting with the like-minded and shunning the rest.</p>
<p>The late <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivarianism">Bolivarian</a> populist Hugo Chávez and the libertarian British populist Nigel Farage have demonstrated traits of intolerance and autocracy. Chávez repeatedly demanded <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swBsxRWAmbk">“absolute loyalty”</a> because he incarnated “a people”. Farage’s fellow UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn accusing his leader of making the party look <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32612295">“like an absolutist monarchy”</a>.</p>
<p>Despite their outrageous style and antagonistic speech, populists have become the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jan/06/dont-let-trump-fool-you-rightwing-populism-is-the-new-normal-video">new normal</a>. This is a result of their success in <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0031322032000185578">“injecting populist themes and prejudices”</a> into the political agenda, and of traditional politicians adopting populist messages and tactics.</p>
<p>Australia’s John Howard, for instance, <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361140802429247">appropriated</a> some of Pauline Hanson’s topics in the 1990s. Chávez helped <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/08/world/americas/venezuela-chavez-legacy/">change the conversation</a> in the Americas by challenging US power in the region and prioritising social issues and empowerment of “the people”. </p>
<h2>Leftist populists rise and fall in Latin America</h2>
<p>The end of 2015 was eventful for the league of populists. Left-wing populists lost ground in formerly populist-dominated South America. </p>
<p>In Venezuela, after 14 years of Chávez’s rule followed by three years of Nicolas Maduro, the united opposition parties <a href="http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html?">won 65% of the seats</a> in parliamentary elections in early December. A tired <em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chavism">Chavismo</a></em> was hit by lower oil prices, hyperinflation, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/venezuelans-battle-chronic-shortages-low-oil-prices-leave-economy-crippled/">shortages</a>, crime, general mismanagement and accusations of corruption. </p>
<p>In Argentina, after 12 years of left-wing Peronist Kirchnerism, Cristina Kirchner’s candidate, Daniel Scioli, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/mauricio-macri-elected-argentinas-next-president">narrowly lost</a> the November presidential elections to the centre-right’s Mauricio Macri. </p>
<p><em>Chavistas</em> and <em>Kirchneristas</em> have found it difficult to accept defeat. Kirchner <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3353894/Don-t-cry-Argentina-Emotional-Cristina-Kirchner-takes-parting-shot-successor-thousands-streets-bid-controversial-president-farewell.html">“snubbed Macri’s inauguration”</a>. In Venezuela, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelas-president-declares-economic-emergency-173911065.html">significant tensions</a> have arisen between the new legislature, the executive and Supreme Court. </p>
<p>In record time, the <em>Chavista</em>-controlled court declared void the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35287291">acts of the National Assembly</a> due to the obscure suspension of three newly elected parliamentarians. Telesur, the continental network that Chávez created and financed as a counter to “imperialist” media, is denouncing the first <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Venezuela-Right-Wing-Removes-Picture-of-Chavez-from-Parliament-20160106-0044.html">deeds of the “right-wingers”</a> in Venezuela and Argentina. Macri is <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentines-Protest-Government-Censorship-20160112-0032.html">accused of censoring Kirchnerist journalists</a>, while Kirchner maintains a fierce attack <a href="https://twitter.com/cfkargentina">via Twitter</a>.</p>
<p>So, has left-wing populism reached its limits in South America? A region beset by inflation, poverty, exclusion and crime will always have a place for redemptive superheroes.</p>
<h2>On the rise across Europe</h2>
<p>In Europe, populist players of right and left are on the rise. </p>
<p>Some are in government, like socialist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. In 2015, his anti-austerity, anti-Europe party, Syriza, won two elections in less than nine months <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/sep/20/greek-general-election-results-alexis-tsipras-syriza-meimarakis-new-democracy-livesults">with 35% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>In some Nordic countries, such as <a href="http://www.thelocal.no/20151216/norway-populists-win-new-immigration-ministry">Norway</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-election-anti-eu-right-marches-onto-centre-stage-40504">Finland</a>, ultra-conservative anti-immigration populists are in governing coalitions.</p>
<p>Other populist players are advancing to positions of power. In the weeks since Spain’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/spain-votes-for-change-but-has-no-idea-what-government-itll-end-up-with-52583">general election</a>, it has been poised between minority government, uneasy coalitions and fresh elections. Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias has become a decisive voice amid political fragmentation and sick bipartisanship.</p>
<p>The traditional pendulum between Spain’s centre-right (Partido Popular, which won 29% of the votes and 123 seats) and centre-left (PSOE, 22% and 90 seats) <a href="http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/12/20/5676faa222601d94038b458f.html">was broken</a>. The left-wing Podemos won an impressive 20.66% and 69 seats, while liberal populists Ciudadanos gained 13.93% and 40 seats. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, of Partido Popular, is trying to form government in a <a href="http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/12/20/5676faa222601d94038b458f.html">very fragmented, very difficult environment</a>.</p>
<p>The first agreement to select the president and directive of the Congress <a href="http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/01/12/actualidad/1452624456_505223.html">left out Podemos</a>. Iglesias has denounced a secretive “bunker” coalition between the right, socialists and Ciudadanos against Podemos. <a href="https://twitter.com/pablo_iglesias_?lang=en">Via Twitter</a>, he is holding PSOE responsible for thwarting a progressive alternative to Rajoy.</p>
<p>In the Netherlands, right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party have soared into the lead in <a href="http://www.newenglishreview.org/blog_direct_link.cfm/blog_id/62433/Wilders-PVV--Vaults--to-Top-Party-in-Latest-Dutch-Public-TV-Poll-;">opinion polls</a>. He and other European populists <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/europes-hard-right-parties-making-gains-in-polls-2015-11?r=UK&IR=T">are thriving</a> in the context of mass immigration, terrorism, economic problems and corruption in politics. They include the extreme right <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-sweden-tightening-its-borders-after-years-of-welcoming-migrants-53000">Swedish Democrats</a> and <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/danish-mep-quits-governing-party-over-asylum-policy/a-18930638">Danish People’s Party</a>. </p>
<p>Marine Le Pen, the anti-immigration, ultra-conservative leader of France’s Front National (FN) is, along with Trump (who has been dubbed “<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/could-donald-trump-be-americas-marine-le-pen">America’s Marine Le Pen</a>”), probably the most celebritised of the populists today. Her party won <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/14/french-elections-what-results-mean-for-2017-presidential-race">6.8 million votes</a> in second-round regional elections in December. The FN’s vote (27%) situates Le Pen <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-front-nationals-polling-better-than-ever-but-dont-expect-a-president-le-pen-52229">closer to challenging</a> former president Nicolas Sarkozy and the incumbent Francois Hollande in the 2017 election. </p>
<p>The FN <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12038100/Euro-regime-is-working-like-a-charm-for-Frances-Marine-Le-Pen.html">“swept 55% of the working-class vote stealing the socialist base”</a>. Like UKIP in the May 2015 UK elections, no firsts but many seconds position them for future wins. Le Pen is framing the presidential debate in typically populist binary terms, between traditional or mainstream “globalists” and <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/what-if-marine-le-pen-wins-french-presidency-408357">FN “patriots”</a>. </p>
<p>Other populist leaders or groups focus on specific issues. Since leading UKIP to become the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tories-win-uk-election-outright-majority-as-polls-completely-fail-41499">third-most-popular party</a> in the UK, Farage is championing a <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/09/nigel-farage-immigration-rhetoric-may-harm-campaign-new-poll-suggests/">Brexit</a>. Some argue that his <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-01-17/nigel-farage-eu-referendum-people-versus-politicians/">divisive rhetoric</a> might harm the vote to leave Europe, but who knows?</p>
<p>In Italy, populist comedian Beppe Grillo and his strong “Five Star Movement” are leading a campaign for online “direct democracy”, in which <a href="http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/2015/04/the_m5s_is_applying_direct_dem.html">ordinary people become legislators</a>. </p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>The record of populists in the Americas and Europe shows they should not be underestimated. </p>
<p>Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-donald-trump-win-the-us-republican-presidential-nomination-52702">strong polling figures</a> suggest populism will be a force throughout the presidential primaries this year. </p>
<p>What do the vicissitudes and naturalisation of the bizarre populist superheroes signal? Perhaps that middle-ground, cosmopolitan politicians should learn to connect more effectively with their constituents, their grievances and aspirations. To meet the political challenges of this time, they need to engage in a robust and meaningful conversation not only with the like-minded but also with those who are not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elena Block does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Populist politicians are on the march, first in Latin America, then in Europe and the US. They are on both the left and right, and their policies vary, but their approach carries the same risks.Elena Block, Honorary Research Fellow, Sessional Lecturer and Tutor in Political Communication, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.