tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/planetary-boundaries-3316/articlesPlanetary boundaries – The Conversation2024-02-08T00:13:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198122024-02-08T00:13:16Z2024-02-08T00:13:16ZPopulation can’t be ignored. It has to be part of the policy solution to our world’s problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571345/original/file-20240125-25-ep3bs0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3544%2C2352&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/planet-earth-big-city-view-highest-575859517">Marina Poushkina/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a growing consensus that environmental problems, particularly the effects of climate change, pose a grave challenge to humanity. Pollution, habitat destruction, intractable waste issues and, for many, deteriorating quality of life should be added to the list.</p>
<p>Economic growth is the chief culprit. We forget, though, that environmental impacts are a consequence of per capita consumption multiplied by the number of people doing the consuming. Our own numbers matter. </p>
<p>Population growth threatens environments at global, national and regional scales. Yet the policy agenda either ignores human population, or <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf">fosters alarm</a> when perfectly natural trends such as declining fertility and longer lifespans cause growth rates to fall and populations to age.</p>
<p>That there are still too many of us is a problem few want to talk about. Fifty years ago, population was <a href="https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/">considered to be an issue</a>, not only for the developing world, but for the planet as a whole. Since then, the so-called green revolution in agriculture made it possible to feed many more people. But the costs of these practices, which relied heavily on pesticide and fertiliser use and relatively few crops, are only now beginning to be understood. </p>
<p>The next 30 years will be critical. The most recent <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">United Nations projections</a> point to a global population of 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. There are 8 billion of us now. Another 2 billion will bring already stressed ecosystems to the point of collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing global population growth since 1950 and projection to 2100." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571346/original/file-20240125-29-qgaznz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=648&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The latest global population projection from the United Nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s the whole world’s problem</h2>
<p>Many would agree overpopulation is a problem in many developing countries, where large families keep people poor. But there are too many of us in the developed world, too. Per person, people in high-income countries <a href="https://populationmatters.org/the-facts-resources-consumption/">consume 60% more resources</a> than in upper-middle-income countries and more than 13 times as much as people in low-income countries.</p>
<p>From 1995 to 2020, the UK population, for example, grew by 9.1 million. A crowded little island, particularly around London and the south-east, became more crowded still. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Netherlands, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST?most_recent_value_desc=true&view=map">one of the most densely populated countries</a>, had just under 10 million inhabitants in 1950 and 17.6 million in 2020. In the 1950s, the government encouraged emigration to reduce population densities. By the 21st century, another 5 million people in a tiny country certainly caused opposition to immigration, but concern was wrongly focused on the ethnic composition of the increase. The principal problem of overpopulation received little attention. </p>
<p>Australia is celebrated as “a land of boundless plains to share”. In reality it’s a small country that consists of big distances. </p>
<p>As former NSW Premier Bob Carr <a href="https://fac.flinders.edu.au/dspace/api/core/bitstreams/6734a834-4409-46fb-b92c-3a7aec8e76d1/content">predicted</a> some years ago, as Australia’s population swelled, the extra numbers would be housed in spreading suburbs that would gobble up farmland nearest our cities and threaten coastal and near-coastal habitats. How right he was. The outskirts of Sydney and Melbourne are carpeted in big, ugly houses whose inhabitants will be forever car-dependent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of city suburbs stretching out to the horizon" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571348/original/file-20240125-27-jhtqbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Non-stop growth means our cities are becoming less efficient and liveable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-urban-sprawl-along-rapidly-1977700022">Harley Kingston/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Doing nothing has a high cost</h2>
<p>The longer we do nothing about population growth, the worse it gets. More people now inevitably mean more in the future than there would otherwise have been. </p>
<p>We live very long lives, on average, so once we’re born, we tend to stick around. It takes a while for falling birthrates to have any impact. </p>
<p>And when they do, the population boosters respond with cries of alarm. The norm is seen as a young or youngish population, while the elderly are presented as a parasitical drag upon the young. </p>
<p>Falling reproduction rates should not be regarded as a disaster but as a natural occurrence to which we can adapt. </p>
<p>Recently, we have been told Australia must have high population growth, because of workforce shortages. It is rarely stated exactly what these shortages are, and why we cannot train enough people to fill them. </p>
<p>Population and development are connected in subtle ways, at global, national and regional scales. At each level, stabilising the population holds the key to a more environmentally secure and equitable future. </p>
<p>For those of us who value the natural world for its own sake, the matter is clear – we should make room for other species. For those who do not care about other species, the reality is that without a more thoughtful approach to our own numbers, planetary systems will continue to break down.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing the probabilities of global population projections and the impacts of having 0.5 more or less children per woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571349/original/file-20240125-17-fslren.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cutting births by just 0.5 children per woman can dramatically reduce the level at which the world’s population peaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900">UN World Population Prospects 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Let women choose to have fewer children</h2>
<p>So, what to do? If we assume the Earth’s population is going to exceed 10 billion, the type of thinking behind this assumption means we are sleepwalking our way into a nightmarish future when a better one is within our grasp.</p>
<p>A radical rethink of the global economy is needed to address climate change. In relation to population growth, if we can move beyond unhelpful ideologies, the solution is already available. </p>
<p>People are not stupid. In particular, women are not stupid. Where women are given the choice, they restrict the number of children they have. This freedom is as basic a human right as you can get. </p>
<p>A much-needed demographic transition could be under way right now, if only the population boosters would let it happen. </p>
<p>Those who urge greater rates of reproduction, whether they realise it or not, are serving only the short-term interests of developers and some religious authorities, for whom big societies mean more power for themselves. It is a masculinist fantasy for which most women, and many men, have long been paying a huge price. </p>
<p>Women will show the way, if only we would let them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most of the problems confronting the world come down to population growth. But where women are given the choice, they limit the number of children they have.Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137622023-09-19T04:31:41Z2023-09-19T04:31:41ZWhat are ‘planetary boundaries’ and why should we care?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548985/original/file-20230919-15-6o2a50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=844%2C5%2C2736%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/nasa-captures-epic-earth-image">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As far as we know, there is exactly one planet in our Solar System – and the galaxy – which hosts life. And you’re on it. </p>
<p>For the first 800 million years, Earth was dead. Then life began making itself at home. For over three billion years, lifeforms have helped shape their own environment. Earth’s energy balance (commonly known as the climate) and its interactions with trillions of species is the main determinant of environmental conditions. </p>
<p>As you know, one species – ours – is exceptionally good at changing our environment to suit us. The problem is, we’re now too good at it. We chop down forests, remove mountains to get at ore bodies, take over grassland, fish out entire seas, create and unleash novel chemicals and pump huge quantities of nutrients from fertiliser into the system. These and many more undermine the hidden life support system on which we rely. </p>
<h2>What are planetary boundaries?</h2>
<p>Almost 15 years ago, this article’s lead author helped create something called “planetary boundaries” to make clear what damage we had done. </p>
<p>We teased apart nine processes vital to the Earth system. </p>
<p>Three are based on what we take from the system: </p>
<ul>
<li>biodiversity loss</li>
<li>fresh water</li>
<li>land use. </li>
</ul>
<p>The remaining six come from waste we deposit back into the environment: </p>
<ul>
<li>greenhouse gases (which cause climate change and ocean acidification)</li>
<li>ozone-depleting chemicals</li>
<li>novel entities (plastic, concrete, synthetic chemicals and genetically modified organisms which owe their existence to us)</li>
<li>aerosols</li>
<li>nutrient overload (reactive nitrogen and phosphorus from fertilisers)</li>
</ul>
<p>If we keep our activities to a safe level, the sheer exuberance of life and the planet’s own processes can handle it. But in six out of nine vital life support systems, we have blown <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">well past</a> the safe zone. And we’re now in the danger zone, where we – as well as every other species – are now at risk. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="planetary boundaries update 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548987/original/file-20230919-21-izom3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Here’s the sum total of our impact on the planet. You can see the areas we’re still within safe limits – and those where we are well past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our breach of boundaries is very new</h2>
<p>In the year 1900, there were around 1.6 billion humans – nearly all of them poor. Now there are 8 billion of us, and some of them are rich. And nearly all of us use fossil fuels, plastics, chemicals and products from intensive agriculture. </p>
<p>It can be very easy to live our lives and only occasionally glimpse the reality. You might have flown over palm oil plantations where rainforest was. Seen blue-green algal blooms or fish kills. You might have wondered where all the animals or bugs were on a bushwalk. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">Humanity is in the existential danger zone, study confirms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But when we zoom out and look at the sum total of our impacts, the story is clear. Put bluntly, we are eating away at our own life support systems. And this has happened extraordinarily recently. If we keep going, we risk triggering a dramatic and potentially irreversible change in living conditions. </p>
<p>Like all other living organisms, we survive by using Earth’s resources. We once believed these resources were unlimited. But we now know there are hard limits. </p>
<p>Take fresh water – essential to life on land. If we pump too much water from rivers, lakes and aquifers for farming, industry or cities, we risk hitting that hard limit. This isn’t hypothetical – places like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/01/climate/india-groundwater-depletion.html">India</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/us/california-groundwater-depletion.html">California</a> are close to that limit. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="india groundwater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548991/original/file-20230919-25-7cih0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries is likely to trigger freshwater crises.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">India groundwater</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How are these boundaries calculated?</h2>
<p>Remember – the entirety of human civilisation, the flowering of culture, religion, agriculture and cities – has taken place only in the last 10–12,000 years. For the roughly 190,000 years before that, we were nomadic hunter-gatherers. What changed? </p>
<p>The climate, for one. We entered a climate sweet spot, with relatively stable and warm conditions. Gone were the recurring ice ages. Many experts believe there’s a connection here – stable climate, rise of civilisation, though this is hard to establish with certainty. </p>
<p>What we do know is we can thrive under these conditions. We don’t know for certain our civilisation as we know it can thrive if they are different. We would be foolish to risk pushing our supporting envelope to breaking point. </p>
<p>That’s why we and many other independent scientists have worked as hard as we have to develop the framework of planetary boundaries and keep it up-to-date as new science comes in. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-climate-weve-already-breached-most-of-the-earths-limits-a-safer-fairer-future-means-treading-lightly-206678">It's not just climate – we've already breached most of the Earth's limits. A safer, fairer future means treading lightly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do we know if we’ve breached the boundaries?</h2>
<p>The Earth’s environmental conditions have changed many times in its long history. Climate is a good example here. We know the Earth looked very different when temperatures were higher or lower. Palms <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19077439">once grew</a> in Antarctica. These swings from hothouse to ice age let us estimate the boundary beyond which our activities can upset the process. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="palm trees snow background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548990/original/file-20230919-25-4vmlhh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palm trees once grew in an ice-free Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These are boundaries, not thresholds. When we cross one, it doesn’t trigger immediate disaster. And it’s entirely possible to bring our activities back from unsafe to safe. We’ve done it already in the 1990s, when international cooperation quickly phased out ozone-depleting chemicals and stopped the dangerous ozone hole from getting ever-bigger. </p>
<p>So how are we doing? Not great. </p>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">update</a>, the research team found we had now gone beyond the safe zone into dangerous territory in six of the nine processes. We are still in the green for ozone-depleting chemicals. Ocean-acidification is still, just, in the green, and so is aerosol pollution and dust. </p>
<p>But on climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, synthetic chemicals such as plastics, freshwater depletion, and nitrogen/phosphorus use, we’re well out of the safer zone. On these six, we’re deep in the red zone.</p>
<p>We’re keeping the party going as long as possible. But it can’t continue indefinitely. The bill comes due. The faster we do for the other boundaries what we did for ozone-depleting chemicals, the safer all of us will be. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone-202619">Two trillion tonnes of greenhouse gases, 25 billion nukes of heat: are we pushing Earth out of the Goldilocks zone?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xuemei Bai receives funding from the Australian government, Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), The Future Earth, and the Australian National University. She is affiliated with the Earth Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ve become so good at using the Earth’s resources we’re endangering the systems we rely on.Katherine Richardson, Professor in Biological Oceanography, University of CopenhagenXuemei Bai, Distinguished Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114962023-08-16T02:33:59Z2023-08-16T02:33:59ZCritics of ‘degrowth’ economics say it’s unworkable – but from an ecologist’s perspective, it’s inevitable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542904/original/file-20230816-21-ngu4pv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C120%2C5677%2C3509&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Matt Sheumack</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may not have noticed, but earlier this month we passed <a href="https://www.overshootday.org/about/">Earth overshoot day</a>, when humanity’s demands for ecological resources and services exceeded what our planet can regenerate annually. </p>
<p>Many economists <a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-slowing-down-rich-economies-to-deal-with-climate-change-is-a-flawed-idea-209434%20https://doi.org/10.1080/10455752.2011.648848%20https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800910004209">criticising</a> the developing <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/11-10-2022/degrowth-is-growing-in-popularity-but-what-even-is-it">degrowth movement</a> fail to appreciate this critical point of Earth’s biophysical limits. </p>
<p>Ecologists on the other hand see the <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10919/25087">human economy as a subset of the biosphere</a>. Their perspective highlights the urgency with which we need to reduce our demands on the biosphere to avoid a disastrous ecological collapse, with consequences for us and all other species.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1686771586827796492"}"></div></p>
<p>Many degrowth scholars (as well as critics) focus on features of capitalism as the cause of this ecological overshoot. But while capitalism may be problematic, many civilisations destroyed ecosystems to the point of <a href="https://houseofanansi.com/products/a-short-history-of-progress">collapse</a> long before it became our dominant economic model.</p>
<p>Capitalism, powered by the availability of cheap and abundant fossil energy, has indeed resulted in unprecedented and global biosphere disruption. But the direct cause remains the excessive volume and speed with which resources are extracted and wastes returned to the environment. </p>
<p>From an ecologist’s perspective, degrowth is inevitable on our current trajectory. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-isnt-the-same-as-a-recession-its-an-alternative-to-growing-the-economy-forever-202469">Degrowth isn't the same as a recession – it's an alternative to growing the economy forever</a>
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<h2>Carrying capacity</h2>
<p>Ecology tells us that many species overshoot their environment’s carrying capacity if they have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B0080430767041449">temporary access to an unusually high level of resources</a>. Overshoot declines when those resources return to more stable levels. This often involves large-scale starvation and die-offs as populations adjust.</p>
<p>Access to fossil fuels has allowed us to temporarily overshoot biophysical limits. This lifted our population and demands on the biosphere past the level it can safely absorb. Barring a planned reduction of those biosphere demands, we will experience the same “adjustments” as other species. </p>
<p>One advantage humans have over other species is that we understand overshoot dynamics and can plan how we adjust. This is what the degrowth movement is attempting to do.</p>
<p>To grasp the necessity of reducing ecological overshoot we must understand its current status. We can do this by examining a variety of empirical studies. </p>
<h2>Material flows and planetary boundaries</h2>
<p>Analysis of <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2019/goal-12/">material flows in the economy</a> shows we are currently extracting more than 100 billion tons of natural materials annually, and rising. This greatly exceeds natural processes – erosion, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes – that move materials around the globe. </p>
<p>Such massive human-driven <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18661-9">material flows</a> can destroy ecosystems, <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-319-71058-7_74-1">cause pollution</a> and <a href="https://ugc.berkeley.edu/background-content/habitat-loss-restoration/">drive species extinct</a>. </p>
<p>Only about 10% of these resource flows are <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060726">potentially renewable</a>. In many cases, we are harvesting more than can be regenerated annually (for example, many <a href="https://www.si.edu/object/siris_sil_1104428">fish stocks</a>).</p>
<p>Humans have now transgressed at least six of nine <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-05-earth-unlivable-tide.html">planetary boundaries</a>. Each boundary has distinct limits, but in some instances the overshoot is at least double the safe operating level.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic showing the planetary boundaries and humanity's overshoot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542704/original/file-20230814-21101-qoqzfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We have now exceeded six planetary boundaries, and for some by at least double the safe operating level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stockholm Resilience Centre</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both material flow analysis and planetary boundaries provide critically important information about our impacts on the biosphere. But they fail to capture the full picture. The former doesn’t directly measure biosphere functioning. The latter doesn’t capture inter-dependencies between various boundaries.</p>
<p>The biosphere is a holistic entity, with many self-organising and interconnected subsystems. Our generally reductionist scientific methodologies are not able to capture this level of complexity. The methodology that comes closest to achieving this is the <a href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/">ecological footprint</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-why-some-economists-think-abandoning-growth-is-the-only-way-to-save-the-planet-podcast-170748">Degrowth: why some economists think abandoning growth is the only way to save the planet – podcast</a>
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<h2>Biocapacity</h2>
<p>The ecological footprint measures the amount of productive surface on Earth and its capacity to generate resources and assimilate waste. These are two of the most fundamental features of the biosphere. </p>
<p>It then compares this available biocapacity with humanity’s annual demands. Humanity’s ecological footprint has exceeded the biosphere’s annual biocapacity since at least 1970 and is currently <a href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/">almost twice the sustainable level</a>.</p>
<p>The reason we can use more of what is generated annually is because we use stored biomass – ancient solar energy captured over millennia – to power this draw-down. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1690560462901882880"}"></div></p>
<p>We must note that the ecological footprint is an acknowledged <a href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/content/uploads/2020/08/Footprint-Limitations-and-Criticism.pdf">underestimate of our demands on the biosphere</a>. Also, the biosphere isn’t there only for us. At least <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/biodiversity-summit-agrees-to-protect-one-third-of-planet-by-2030-2022-12-19/">30-50% of the biosphere</a> should be reserved as wilderness to <a href="https://natureneedshalf.org/why-50/">protect other species and global ecosystems</a>. </p>
<p>Humanity exceeds its fair share of natural resources by more than 50%, and likely needs to reduce this demand by 70-80% to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365402435_The_human_eco-predicament_Overshoot_and_the_population_conundrum">operate within carrying capacity</a>. Those with <a href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621052/mb-confronting-carbon-inequality-210920-en.pdf">greater wealth</a> are responsible for a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y">disproportionately large share of overshoot</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stories-about-economic-degrowth-help-fight-climate-change-and-yield-a-host-of-other-benefits-181025">Stories about economic degrowth help fight climate change — and yield a host of other benefits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It’s not just a climate crisis</h2>
<p>The political and public concern about climate change is considerable <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/29/concern-over-climate-and-the-environment-predominates-among-these-publics/">internationally</a> and <a href="https://www.motu.nz/our-research/environment-and-resources/emission-mitigation/shaping-new-zealands-low-emissions-future/from-fact-to-act-new-zealanders-beliefs-and-actions-on-climate-change/">in New Zealand</a>. But this is one of many environmental crises, together with soil erosion, groundwater pollution, deforestation, the rise of invasive species, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification and the depletion of resources. They are all symptoms of overshoot.</p>
<p>The climate crisis is seen as a problem requiring a solution rather than a symptom of overshoot. The problem is generally formulated as looking for a way to maintain current lifestyles in the wealthy world, rather than reducing overshoot. </p>
<p>The ecological perspective accepts that we exceed biophysical boundaries and emphasises the importance of reducing energy and material consumption – regardless of how the energy is provided. </p>
<p>The scope of human disruption of the biosphere is now global. This ecological perspective highlights the current magnitude and closeness of significant and unwelcome changes to Earth systems. The reduction of humanity’s demands on the biosphere is an overriding priority.</p>
<p>Ecological economics, with its emphasis on a <a href="https://steadystate.org/discover/definition-of-steady-state-economy/">steady-state economy</a>, is perhaps the most rigorous existing economic framework with <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Herman-Dalys-Economics-for-a-Full-World-His-Life-and-Ideas/Victor/p/book/9780367556952">specific proposals for determining priority actions</a>. We urge scholars of all disciples to examine these.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The author acknowledges the contribution of Jack Santa-Barbara.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211496/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Joy is affiliated with Degrowth Aotearoa New Zealand (DANZ). </span></em></p>Access to fossil fuels allowed humanity to overshoot Earth’s biophysical limits. The crises we now face are all symptoms of this overshoot, and the only fix is to cut our demands on the biosphere.Mike Joy, Senior Researcher; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2066782023-05-31T20:07:56Z2023-05-31T20:07:56ZIt’s not just climate – we’ve already breached most of the Earth’s limits. A safer, fairer future means treading lightly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529253/original/file-20230531-25-o2l9kr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C5%2C3776%2C2118&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>People once believed the planet could always accommodate us. That the resilience of the Earth system meant nature would always provide. But we now know this is not necessarily the case. As big as the world is, our impact is bigger. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8">research</a> released today, an international team of scientists from the <a href="https://earthcommission.org/">Earth Commission</a>, of which we were part, identified eight “safe” and “just” boundaries spanning five vital planetary systems: climate change, the biosphere, freshwater, nutrient use in fertilisers and air pollution. This is the first time an assessment of boundaries has quantified the harms to people from changes to the Earth system. </p>
<p>“Safe” means boundaries maintaining stability and resilience of our planetary systems on which we rely. “Just”, in this work, means boundaries which minimise significant harm to people. Together, they’re a health barometer for the planet. </p>
<p>Assessing our planet’s health is a big task. It took the expertise of 51 world-leading researchers from natural and social sciences. Our methods included modelling, literature reviews and expert judgement. We assessed factors such as tipping point risks, declines in Earth system functions, historical variability and effects on people.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, we found humanity has exceeded the safe and just limits for four of five systems. Aerosol pollution is the sole exception. Urgent action, based on the best available science, is now needed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529201/original/file-20230530-21-z6g13x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This illustration shows how we’ve breached almost all the eight safe and just Earth system boundaries globally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So, what did we find?</h2>
<p>Our work builds on the influential concepts of <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">planetary boundaries</a> by finding ways to quantify what <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01064-1">just systems</a> look like alongside safety. </p>
<p>Importantly, the safe and just boundaries are defined at local to global spatial scales appropriate for assessing and managing planetary systems – as small as one square kilometre in the case of biodiversity. This is crucial because many natural functions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.11.013">act at local scales</a>. </p>
<p>Here are the boundaries: </p>
<p><strong>1. Climate boundary – keep warming to 1°C</strong></p>
<p>We know the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris Agreement goal</a> of 1.5°C avoids a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">high risk</a> of triggering dangerous climate tipping points. </p>
<p>But even now, with warming at 1.2°C, many people around the world are being hit hard by climate-linked disasters, such as the recent extreme heat in China, fires in Canada, severe floods in Pakistan and droughts in the United States and the Horn of Africa. </p>
<p>At 1.5°C, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6">hundreds of millions of people</a> could be exposed to average annual temperatures over 29°C, which is outside the human climate niche and can be fatal. That means a just boundary for climate is nearer to 1°C. This makes the need to halt further carbon emissions even more urgent. </p>
<p><strong>2. Biosphere boundaries: Expand intact ecosystems to cover 50-60% of the earth</strong></p>
<p>A healthy <a href="https://earthcommission.org/biosphere/">biosphere</a> ensures a safe and just planet by storing carbon, maintaining global water cycles and soil quality, protecting pollinators and many other ecosystem services. To safeguard these services, we need 50 to 60% of the world’s land to have largely intact natural ecosystems. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-15703-5_25#DOI">Recent research</a> puts the current figure at between 45% and 50%, which includes vast areas of land with relatively low populations, including parts of Australia and the Amazon rainforest. These areas are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0804619106">under pressure</a> from climate change and other human activity.</p>
<p>Locally, we need about 20-25% of each square kilometre of farms, towns, cities or other human-dominated landscapes <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.24.497294v3">to contain</a> largely intact natural ecosystems. At present, only a third of our human-dominated landscapes meet this threshold.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="walkway over river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529251/original/file-20230531-23-r7u0i4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">To safeguard the biosphere means making sure natural ecosystems survive even in human-dominated areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>3. Freshwater boundaries: Keep groundwater levels up and don’t suck rivers dry</strong></p>
<p>Too much freshwater is a problem, as unprecedented floods in Australia and Pakistan show. And too little is also a problem, with unprecedented droughts taking their toll on food production. </p>
<p>To bring fresh water systems back into balance, a rule of thumb is to avoid <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.1511">taking or adding</a> more than 20% of a river or stream’s water in any one month, in the absence of local knowledge of environmental flows. </p>
<p>At present, 66% of the world’s land area meets this boundary, when flows are averaged over the year. But human settlement has a major impact: less than half of the world’s population lives in these areas. Groundwater, too, is overused. At present, almost half the world’s land is subject to groundwater overextraction. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="well with bucket water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529250/original/file-20230531-27-iw50k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fresh water is vital to life on land. Over-extraction is dangerous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4. Fertiliser and nutrient boundaries: Halve the runoff from fertilisers</strong></p>
<p>When farmers overuse fertilisers on their fields, rain washes <a href="https://earthcommission.org/nutrients">nitrogen and phosphorus</a> runoff into rivers and oceans. These nutrients can trigger algal blooms, damage ecosystems and worsen drinking water quality. </p>
<p>Yet many farming regions in poorer countries <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-010213-113300">don’t have enough</a> fertiliser, which is unjust. </p>
<p>Worldwide, our nitrogen and phosphorus use are up to double their safe and just boundaries. While this needs to be reduced in many countries, in other parts of the world fertiliser use can safely increase.</p>
<p><strong>5. Aerosol pollution boundary: Sharply reduce dangerous air pollution and reduce regional differences</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06799-3">New research</a> shows differences in concentration of <a href="https://earthcommission.org/aerosols/">aerosol pollutants</a> between Northern and Southern hemispheres could disrupt wind patterns and monsoons if pollutant levels keep increasing. That is, air pollution could actually upend weather systems. </p>
<p>At present, aerosol concentrations have not yet reached weather-changing levels. But much of the world is exposed to dangerous levels of fine particle pollution (known as PM 2.5) in the air, causing <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)30505-6/fulltext">an estimated</a> 4.2 million deaths a year. </p>
<p>We must significantly reduce these pollutants to safer levels – under 15 micrograms per cubic metre of air. </p>
<h2>We must act</h2>
<p>We must urgently navigate towards a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EF001866">safe and just</a> future, and strive to return our planetary systems back within safe and just boundaries through just means.</p>
<p>To stop human civilisation from pushing the Earths’s systems out of balance, we will have to tackle the many ways we damage the planet. </p>
<p>To work towards a world compatible with the Earth’s limits means setting and achieving <a href="https://sciencebasedtargetsnetwork.org/">science-based targets</a>. To <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02894-3">translate these boundaries</a> to actions will require urgent support from government to create regulatory and incentive-based systems to drive the changes needed. </p>
<p>Setting boundaries and targets is vital. The Paris Agreement galvanised faster action on climate. But we need similar boundaries to ensure the future holds fresh water, clean air, a planet still full of life and a good life for humans.</p>
<p><em>We would like to acknowledge support from the <a href="https://earthcommission.org/">Earth Commission</a>, which is hosted by <a href="https://futureearth.org/">Future Earth</a>, and is the science component of the <a href="https://globalcommonsalliance.org/">Global Commons Alliance</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven J Lade receives funding from the Australian Government (Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381) and the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant 2020-00371). He is affiliated with Future Earth and the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University. This work is part of the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future
Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment
Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Stewart-Koster receives funding from Future Earth for his role in the Earth Commission under the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Bunn receives funding from Future Earth for his role in the Earth Commission under the Global Commons Alliance. This is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Syezlin Hasan receives funding from Future Earth for her role in the Earth Commission under the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This paper was made possible through the voluntary commitment of
time and research by the Earth Commissioners and the support of the
researchers and secretariat from the Global Challenges Foundation;
the Global Commons Alliance, a sponsored project of Rockefeller
Philanthropy Advisors (with support from Oak Foundation, MAVA,
Porticus, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Herlin Foundation and
the Global Environment Facility).</span></em></p>We’ve blown past the safe and just limit for vital Earth systems, from climate change to the biosphere and the use of fertilisers and freshwater. For humans to thrive means living in safe limitsSteven J Lade, Resilience researcher at Australian National University, Australian National UniversityBen Stewart-Koster, Senior research fellow, Griffith UniversityStuart Bunn, Professor, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith UniversitySyezlin Hasan, Research fellow, Griffith UniversityXuemei Bai, Distinguished Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055662023-05-18T20:01:27Z2023-05-18T20:01:27ZSaving humanity: here’s a radical approach to building a sustainable and just society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526658/original/file-20230516-25-er9rcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C24%2C4093%2C2721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-march-15-2019-20-1340782703">Holli, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Collectively we are driving Earth and civilisation towards collapse. Human activities have <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html">exceeded planetary boundaries</a>. We are changing the climate, losing biodiversity, degrading land, contaminating freshwater, and damaging the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles upon which we all depend.</p>
<p>We ask how this could happen. Also, why democratically elected governments ignore the wishes of the majority of their people. Why some governments continue to export fossil fuels despite commitments to climate mitigation. Why some go to war in distant lands without any debate in parliament or congress. Why some give tax cuts to the rich while those on the dole struggle below the poverty line.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Book cover showing a bulldozer approaching a small crowd of people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526657/original/file-20230516-25-rhn88g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Book cover.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0663-5">Palgrave Macmillan</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The answers to these questions all come down to one thing: decision-makers and influencers are captured by vested interests. That is the inconvenient truth revealed in <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0663-5">our new book</a>, The Path to a Sustainable Civilisation: Technological, Socioeconomic and Political Change. But these forces can be overthrown. </p>
<p>We argue it is not sufficient for citizen organisations and governments to address specific environmental, social justice and peace issues. It’s certainly necessary, but we must also struggle for systemic change. This means challenging the covert driving forces of environmental destruction, social injustice and war, namely, “state capture” and the dominant economic system. </p>
<p>It’s 90 seconds to midnight on the <a href="https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/">Doomsday Clock</a>, so there’s no time to waste. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-overshot-three-planetary-boundaries-based-on-how-we-use-land-183728">Australia has overshot three planetary boundaries based on how we use land</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Confronting state capture</h2>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Shadow_State.html?id=84toDwAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">Political scientists</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351983848_State_Capture_Analysis_A_How_to_Guide_for_Practitioners">political economists</a> argue governments, public servants, the media and indeed the majority of decision-makers and influencers become captured by vested interests. </p>
<p>This is known as <a href="https://australiandemocracy.org.au/statecapture">state capture</a>, where state means the nation-state. The captors include fossil fuel, armaments, finance, property and gambling industries.</p>
<p>State capture can also involve foreign governments. There is justifiable concern in Australia and elsewhere about <a href="https://clivehamilton.com/books/hidden-hand-exposing-how-the-chinese-communist-party-is-reshaping-the-world/">subversion by the Chinese Communist Party</a>. </p>
<p>Yet there is little discussion of the fact that, since 2015, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2022/australia-nuclear-submarines-us-admirals/">six “retired” US admirals</a> worked for the Australian government before the <a href="https://www.defence.gov.au/about/taskforces/aukus">AUKUS</a> announcement on nuclear powered submarines. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic describing the forces driving the collapse of civilisation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526699/original/file-20230517-27-ontv34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The forces driving the collapse of civilisation, in a nutshell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Diesendorf</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>State capture could explain why Australia’s defence is being shifted to the South China Sea <a href="https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/06/sleepwalk-to-war">under US sovereignty</a>. </p>
<p>Confronting state capture involves reversing several undemocratic practices. Of particular concern is the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/donations-australia-federal-politics-foreign/10768226">funding of political parties</a> by corporate interests as well as the <a href="https://australiandemocracy.org.au/statecapture">revolving-door jobs</a> between government and corporate interests. </p>
<p>There is also the concentration of media ownership and the influence of <a href="https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-party-and-the-institute-of-public-affairs-who-is-whose,8837">so-called “think tanks”</a> funded by vested interests. </p>
<p>The first step is to set up coalitions or networks to oppose the power of vested interests. This would bring together diverse civil society organisations with common interests in democratic integrity and civil liberties. </p>
<p>One example is the <a href="https://australiandemocracy.org.au/">Australian Democracy Network</a>, which campaigns for “changes that make our democracy more fair, open, participatory, and accountable”. The Network was founded in 2020 by the Human Rights Law Centre, the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Australian Council of Social Service. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-monster-rally-for-climate-change-but-divergent-goals-hinder-the-fight-125358">A monster rally for climate change, but divergent goals hinder the fight</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Challenging economic ideology</h2>
<p>Conventional economic theory <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/155970/collapse-neoliberalism">failed us</a> when it came to recovery from the <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2009/february/1319602475/kevin-rudd/global-financial-crisis">Global Financial Crisis</a> of 2007–09 and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/sep/02/covid-and-the-crisis-of-neoliberalism">COVID pandemic</a>. Nevertheless, many governments still accept its prescriptions. </p>
<p>The dangerous and destructive myths of conventional economics include the claims that:</p>
<ul>
<li>economic theory can treat the natural environment as an infinite resource and infinite waste dump</li>
<li>endless economic growth on a finite planet is feasible and desirable</li>
<li>wealth trickles down from the rich to the poor</li>
<li>wellbeing and welfare can be measured by GDP </li>
<li>government intervention in the market must be avoided. </li>
</ul>
<p>Although these myths have been refuted many times, even by <a href="https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/2011/5/of-the-1by-the-1for-the-1">world famous economist Joseph Stiglitz</a>, they still determine much government policy. </p>
<p>Australian economist Steve Keen first published <a href="https://archive.org/details/debunkingeconomi0000keen">Debunking economics</a> in 2001. The financial crisis of 2007 gave him plenty of material for a revised edition in 2011. Richard Denniss gave us <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/econobabble">Econobabble</a>: How to Decode Political Spin and Economic Nonsense in 2021. Yet, as John Quiggin so eloquently puts it, dead ideas still stalk the land <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154541/zombie-economics">(Zombie Economics</a>.</p>
<p>They have devastating impacts on our life support system (the biosphere) and social justice. One of the principal destroyers of our planet is excessive consumption, especially consumption by <a href="https://theconversation.com/affluence-is-killing-the-planet-warn-scientists-141017">rich individuals and rich countries</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/affluence-is-killing-the-planet-warn-scientists-141017">Affluence is killing the planet, warn scientists</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A more appropriate economic framework for human and planetary wellbeing is the interdisciplinary field of <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/ecological-economics-second-edition">ecological economics</a>.</p>
<p>Unlike neoclassical economics, ecological economics gives priority to ecological sustainability and social justice over economic efficiency. It works towards a transition to a steady-state economy. That is, one with no global increase in the use of energy, materials and land, and no increase in population.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An infographic showing the nine planetary boundaries, six of these have already been exceeded" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526656/original/file-20230516-17-jwvzvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Human activity is crossing planetary boundaries. E/MSY is Extinctions/Mammal Species Years; the biogeochemical flows beyond the safe operating limits are nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Some sectors are not yet quantified.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre/Stockholm University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since planetary boundaries have already been exceeded and low-income countries must develop, social justice demands that the rich countries undergo <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/less-is-more">planned degrowth</a>.</p>
<p>On the pathway to a sustainable civilisation, environmental protection and social justice must be addressed together. Because the rich are responsible for the biggest environmental impacts, reducing the gap between rich and poor is critical. </p>
<p><a href="https://ubshub.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/social-prosperity-network-ubs.pdf">Universal basic services</a> such as improved public health, education, housing and transportation – and a government-funded <a href="https://www.fullemployment.net/publications/reports/2020/CofFEE_Research_Report_2000-02.pdf">job guarantee</a> – can achieve greater equality and give people incentives to support the transition. </p>
<h2>Citizen action</h2>
<p>Why would governments free themselves from state capture and discard economics ideology? Former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt once told a delegation: “OK, you have convinced me. Now get out there and make me do it!” In other words, pressure from voters is needed to make government action politically feasible. </p>
<p>That’s why we need citizen-based environmental, social justice, public health and peace groups to form alliances to challenge the overarching issues of state capture and flawed economics ideology.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/building-the-new-economy-alternative-strategies-for-the-99-7827">Building the new economy: alternative strategies for the 99%</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Diesendorf previously received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Human civilisation is headed for collapse. Collectively, we are pushing planet Earth beyond the limits of endurance. There has to be a better way. Now a new book makes the case for systemic change.Mark Diesendorf, Honorary Associate Professor, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2043632023-04-27T06:37:30Z2023-04-27T06:37:30ZWhy green ammonia may not be that green<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523164/original/file-20230427-24-f9h7w9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C285%2C1743%2C1166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ammonia has been in the news because of its suitability as a hydrogen carrier and fuel, in addition to being a <a href="https://stockhead.com.au/energy/ammonia-a-critical-ingredient-in-fertilisers-but-how-do-we-reduce-the-emissions-that-come-with-it/">vital ingredient in fertiliser</a>. Existing distribution networks and the ease of turning ammonia gas into a liquid make ammonia a <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/shipping-green-hydrogen-to-the-eu-will-be-too-expensive-but-importing-green-ammonia-would-be-cheaper-than-producing-it-locally/2-1-1100579">cost-effective way</a> to transport renewable energy. For a given volume, ammonia – a molecule made up of three hydrogen atoms and one nitrogen atom – carries about 50% more hydrogen atoms than hydrogen itself.</p>
<p>As ammonia contains only hydrogen and nitrogen, it does not emit carbon dioxide when used. If made using green hydrogen (produced with renewable energy), its production also does not emit carbon dioxide. Therefore, <a href="https://www.yara.com.au/crop-nutrition/grow-the-future/sustainable-farming/green-ammonia/">green ammonia</a> could help achieve a net-zero world, particularly as a fuel for long-haul transport and heavy industry.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="graphic showing the production and uses of green ammonia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523113/original/file-20230427-22-yjanau.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green ammonia produced using renewable energy can be used for power generation, energy storage and transport, fuel and fertiliser.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/green-ammonia-stop-fossil-fuels/">Source: The Davos Agenda/World Economic Forum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia is well placed to develop a major renewable hydrogen export industry, potentially using green ammonia. Proposed projects include <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/carlyle-backed-amp-energy-powers-up-for-sa-green-hydrogen-precinct-20230412-p5czqc">Cape Hardy</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/21/korean-companies-plan-to-turn-queensland-coalmining-town-into-renewable-energy-powerhouse">Collinsville</a>, <a href="https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/reimagining-energy/decarbonizing-australias-energy-system/renewable-energy-hub-in-australia.html">Australian Renewable Energy Hub</a>, <a href="https://www.csenergy.com.au/news/cs-energy-joins-nq-green-ammonia-project#:%7E:text=HyNQ%20was%20initiated%20by%20Energy,supply%20chain%20of%20North%20Queensland.">HyNQ</a>, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/woodside-obtains-land-for-1-7gw-green-hydrogen-plans-for-tasmania/">H2Tas</a> and <a href="https://www.incitecpivot.com.au/sustainability/projects/green-ammonia-at-gibson-island">Gibson Island</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, just because ammonia doesn’t contain carbon, that doesn’t make it good for the environment. It’s a source of nitrogen pollution, which has many damaging environmental impacts. Despite Australia’s natural advantage in producing green ammonia, we ironically have the <a href="https://theconversation.com/youve-heard-of-a-carbon-footprint-now-its-time-to-take-steps-to-cut-your-nitrogen-footprint-98762">biggest per capita nitrogen footprint</a> in the world. </p>
<p>Rarely, though, do green ammonia proponents critically assess its environmental sustainability beyond net zero claims.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-ammonia-could-slash-emissions-from-farming-and-power-ships-of-the-future-132152">Green ammonia could slash emissions from farming – and power ships of the future</a>
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<h2>Exceeding planetary boundaries</h2>
<p>The Stockholm Resilience Centre defines <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html">nine processes</a> that regulate Earth to support life as we know it. The boundaries of a “safe operating space” have been defined for each process.</p>
<p>You probably won’t be surprised to know climate change is one of the boundaries we have exceeded. You could be forgiven for thinking it has been our biggest impact on the planet. But that “honour” goes to biogeochemical flows of nutrients, mostly as a result of nitrogen fertilisers. </p>
<p>Why? Well it comes back to ammonia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing the Stockholm Resilience Centre's nine planetary boundaries" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523141/original/file-20230427-20-ktnkm7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Stockholm Resilience Centre planetary boundaries. (BII stands for Biodiversity Intactness Index. E/MSY is the number of extinctions per million species-years, a common measure of extinction rates. P stands for phosphorus and N for nitrogen.)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html">Source: Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Wang-Erlandsson et al 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/youve-heard-of-a-carbon-footprint-now-its-time-to-take-steps-to-cut-your-nitrogen-footprint-98762">You've heard of a carbon footprint – now it's time to take steps to cut your nitrogen footprint</a>
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<h2>Unbalancing the nitrogen cycle</h2>
<p>Nitrogen makes up <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2491/10-interesting-things-about-air/">78% of our atmosphere</a> as dinitrogen gas (N₂). However, in this form it is inaccessible to living organisms. </p>
<p>To support life, nitrogen must be converted into reactive forms such as ammonia. Once it reaches ecosystems, ammonia undergoes a series of chemical transformations. Eventually it breaks up again into N₂, and the cycle can start over again.</p>
<p>For millions of years, the processes in each step of the cycle have been in balance. However, industrial fertiliser production in the 20th century has thrown this cycle out of balance. </p>
<p>On the upside, ammonia has been a miracle chemical for growing food. An estimated 3.5 billion people are being fed thanks to chemical <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer?country=%7EOWID_WRL">fertilisers</a>. This means almost half of the world’s population would go hungry if not for synthetic ammonia. </p>
<p>The downside is too much reactive nitrogen is ending up in the environment – more than <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">twice as much as the recommended planetary boundary</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of excess nitrogen, crossing its planetary boundary has already had huge consequences. It has led to deterioration of ecosystems, photochemical smog, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nitrogen-pollution-the-forgotten-element-of-climate-change-69348">acid rain and health problems such as respiratory illnesses and cancer</a>, algal blooms leading to fish kills such as the recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/11/menindee-mass-fish-kill-satellite-images-researchers-blackwater-release-darling-baaka-river-australia">one at Menindee Lakes</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-8-2-billion-water-bill-to-clean-up-the-barrier-reef-by-2025-and-where-to-start-62685">damage to the Great Barrier Reef</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nitrogen-pollution-the-forgotten-element-of-climate-change-69348">greenhouse gases much more potent than carbon dioxide</a>. </p>
<p>Producing additional ammonia as a renewable energy carrier could make these problems even worse. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nitrogen-pollution-the-forgotten-element-of-climate-change-69348">Nitrogen pollution: the forgotten element of climate change</a>
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</em>
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<h2>A problem of leakage</h2>
<p>Some estimate ammonia supply chains leak it into the environment at rates as high as <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/ambio-a-journal-of-the-human-environment/volume-31/issue-2/0044-7447-31.2.64/Reactive-Nitrogen-and-The-World-200-Years-of-Change/10.1579/0044-7447-31.2.64.full">6%</a>. However, research is limited. More widely understood natural gas supply chains may provide a ballpark figure of around <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/driving-down-methane-leaks-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry">2.6%</a>. </p>
<p>Replacing fossil fuels with ammonia for long-haul trucks and shipping might reduce the carbon footprint of transport (which accounts for <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/transport">37%</a> of total carbon dioxide emissions). Yet, if 2.6% of ammonia leaked from the supply chain, we <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2451910322002423">estimate</a> this could triple the reactive nitrogen flux, further overshooting the planetary boundary. At a 6% leakage rate, it could be four times.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-shipping-is-under-pressure-to-stop-its-heavy-fuel-oil-use-fast-thats-not-simple-but-changes-are-coming-204271">Global shipping is under pressure to stop its heavy fuel oil use fast – that’s not simple, but changes are coming</a>
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<p>We all know how climate change has been changing our world – and that is at “only” 1.2 times the carbon planetary boundary. Using green ammonia as a renewable energy carrier could have an even greater impact on the nitrogen planetary boundary.</p>
<h2>A complement to ammonia</h2>
<p>Another renewable energy carrier can be made from green hydrogen: methanol. It’s a molecule of four hydrogen atoms and single carbon and oxygen atoms. </p>
<p>Like ammonia, methanol can be used as a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/maersk-spends-1point4-billion-on-ships-that-can-run-on-methanol.html">fuel</a>. It could replace <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Petrochemical%20feedstocks#">petrochemical feedstocks</a> used in industrial processes and manufacturing. <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2023/SE/D2SE01551J">Our research</a> shows methanol could also enable biotechnology to better integrate with industrial processes.</p>
<p>More significantly, methanol doesn’t affect the nitrogen cycle. As long as it is made using a renewable source of carbon, such as carbon dioxide from <a href="https://theicct.org/a-step-forward-for-green-methanol-and-its-potential-to-deliver-deep-ghg-reductions-in-maritime-shipping%E2%80%AF/">direct air capture</a>, there is a net zero impact on the environment. International Energy Agency <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/e57fd1ee-aac7-494d-a351-f2a4024909b4/GlobalHydrogenReview2021.pdf">projections</a> show the United States has a greater emphasis on green methanol, while Australia and Europe are more focused on green ammonia.</p>
<p>Environmental sustainability means more than net zero. In the case of green ammonia, holistic thinking is needed so we don’t solve one problem only to make another worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamin Wood receives funding from The Warwick and Nancy Olsen Scholarship and Research Training Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernardino Virdis receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>There’s more to sustainability than net zero. Using green ammonia for fuel and as a way to transport hydrogen could add to nitrogen pollution that already exceeds safe planetary boundaries.Jamin Wood, PhD Candidate, Australian Centre for Water and Environmental Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandBernardino Virdis, Senior Researcher, Australian Centre for Water and Environmental Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1988732023-01-31T07:49:04Z2023-01-31T07:49:04ZWe’ve lost a giant: Vale Professor Will Steffen, climate science pioneer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507270/original/file-20230131-17-151dp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C74%2C9850%2C4910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>One of Australia’s leading climate scientists, Professor Will Steffen, died on Sunday. Steffen has been hailed as a brilliant climate thinker, selfless mentor and gifted communicator. He is survived by his wife Carrie and daughter Sonja. Steffen’s colleagues and friends remember him here.</em></p>
<h2>John Finnigan - Honorary Fellow, CSIRO</h2>
<p>The last time I talked to Will was in early January. We had a drink or two before I left for a few weeks work in the United States. He was looking forward with optimism to an operation to get rid of the cancer he had dealt with for a year so he could get on with his life. Unfortunately, there were complications. </p>
<p>The world has lost an enormously influential environmental scientist. And I’ve lost a very dear friend. </p>
<p>Will Steffen and I were close friends for more than 40 years. I came from England to Canberra in the 1970s, and Will came from the US. At that time, it seemed like everyone in Canberra was from somewhere else. As a result, we formed a kind of family. We’d look after each other’s children, or do babysitting so the others could go cross-country skiing. Will and his wife Carrie looked after our kids and we looked after theirs. </p>
<p>I was a scientist at CSIRO when Will joined us as an editor and information officer. Very soon, his obvious scientific intelligence meant he was headhunted to the nascent <a href="http://www.igbp.net">International Geosphere Biosphere Program</a>, an international consortium of scientists. This was the early 1980s, when the field now known as Earth system science was just taking off. Will proved enormously effective, not just as a manager but as a synthesiser and broadcaster of his group’s ideas.</p>
<p>Many of those ideas are now mainstream but back then, they were radical. Ideas such as the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration</a> – the sudden increase in our impact on the environment since the 1950s, brought about by trends such as spiking fossil fuel use, and population growth. </p>
<p>After Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/415023a">proposed</a> that the world had entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, Will ran with the concept. He helped popularise the idea that our collective activity is now a force as potent as natural forces in shaping our planet.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dawn-of-the-anthropocene-five-ways-we-know-humans-have-triggered-a-new-geological-epoch-52867">Dawn of the Anthropocene: five ways we know humans have triggered a new geological epoch</a>
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<p>Will was also a skilled rock and ice climber who climbed mountains all over the world. In 1988 he was part of the ANU expedition which climbed Nepal’s 7,162 metre Mount Baruntse, an icy spire east of Everest. Of his climbing, Will once said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Climbing is like science. To get up a hard rock or ice climb, just like when you’re solving a problem in the carbon cycle, you have to be ultra-focused, you have to make holistic decisions and you have to be absolutely aware of your surroundings. When you come off a big climb, you really appreciate the beauty of what’s around you. That’s the buzz you get in science when you solve a big problem and suddenly see how it all fits together.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the best of ways, Will could also be a stubborn bugger. He refused to let things defeat him – whether on the mountain or taking on climate deniers. On the latter, he was never accommodating. And he’d never fall for their leading questions. He knew how easy it was to edit an interview to twist his words and was smart enough to insist interviews were live. </p>
<p>I remember one interview where he was asked if he accepted carbon dioxide was good for humanity. I might have made the mistake of saying “yes, at certain levels”. But Will knew how to avoid those traps. He said something like: “No. That’s the wrong way to think of it.” He never got boxed in. </p>
<p>During the decade of political climate wars in Australia, Will got a lot of abuse on social media. At one stage, his office at the Australian National University had to be locked down due to death threats. It didn’t stop him. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people rally and hold signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Steffen shrugged off the social media abuse he copped during the political climate wars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>He never saw deniers or obstructionist politicians as his personal enemies. He didn’t waste his time on the negativity of climate politics. While he was angry at the way the selfish actions of vested interests were sacrificing the future of coming generations, including his daughter, Sonja, he did not despair. Instead, he channelled his anger into action. </p>
<p>When the Abbott government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-shuts-down-climate-commission-20130919-2u185.html">shut down the Climate Commission</a> in 2013, Will and his colleagues – Tim Flannery, Lesley Hughes and Amanda McKenzie – didn’t just quit. Instead they crowd-sourced A$1 million in a week and founded the Climate Council, now a leading independent source of climate advice in Australia. </p>
<p>As well as a hugely influential scientist, Will was a really nice bloke and a true friend. He was calm, not confrontational. He had a wry sense of humour and could see the funny side, even when the climate politics were crazy. </p>
<p>Would he have been happy about recent efforts to speed up action on climate change? Yes and no. </p>
<p>He felt, as I do, that things are much further advanced and much worse than generally recognised. He felt limiting global warming to 1.5°C was already well out of reach and that it was going to be very difficult to keep it under 2°C. </p>
<p>While he was heartened by recent progress, he knew it was all but impossible to change fast enough to keep warming to a safer level. But he knew we had to try. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-stumbling-last-minute-dash-for-climate-respectability-doesnt-negate-a-decade-of-abject-failure-169891">Australia's stumbling, last-minute dash for climate respectability doesn't negate a decade of abject failure</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="bird flies in front of sun" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507282/original/file-20230131-12-8kr9t0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Steffen knew keeping warming to a safe level was all but impossible – but he knew we had to try.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Pep Canadell - Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO</h2>
<p>Will Steffen took global environmental research to a whole new level.</p>
<p>Beginning when fax machines were the main tool to communicate across multiple time zones, Will developed unparalleled skill in scientific diplomacy and leadership. His work helped create research networks across the world involving tens of thousands of scientists. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, environmental research labs and individual scientists were mostly still working on their own. The new scientific networks spurred on by Will’s brokering made globally coordinated research possible. This was necessary to understand the planetary changes caused by human activity.</p>
<p>Will achieved this global impact through positions such as executive director of the highly influential International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP). His most powerful tools were his never-ending appetite for the very latest science, his kind nature and genuine people skills, his focus and hard work ethic, and his exceptional communication abilities which let him convey the gravity of complex problems and the need for immediate action.</p>
<p>I came to Australia in the late 1990s to take the job Will had left when he moved to Sweden to become the director of the IGBP. I was never able to fill his shoes. But I have tried, with colleagues, to build on his work in bringing together many strands of research.</p>
<p>Will was a visionary in many ways. He understood the environmental problems we were trying to solve spanned many academic disciplines and were deeply interconnected. Few people had his ability to absorb so many diverse types of science and to work with the diverse research communities whose expertise was urgently needed as part of the solutions. </p>
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<h2>Steve Lade - ARC Future Fellow, Australian National University</h2>
<p>I first encountered Will during one of his talks in Canberra. He was an incredible public speaker and a role model for how a scientific specialist could broaden themselves into a holistic thinker on the most important topics imaginable. Hearing him as a PhD student changed the direction of my career.</p>
<p>My scientific interactions with Will began in the mid-2010s as a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where he was a frequent visitor. Will had recently co-developed the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">planetary boundaries framework</a>, now one of the most influential ideas in sustainability science. </p>
<p>These boundaries show us the environment is not boundless and elastic, able to absorb all that we throw at it or take from it. Our planet has limits – and if we push too far, we will <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">break something</a>, leading to dramatic changes to the only life-bearing planet we know of. </p>
<p>Planetary boundaries are just one of his discipline-changing contributions to sustainability science - others include co-developing the concept of the Great Acceleration and promoting the concept of the Anthropocene. His ideas were grounded in his view of the Earth as a complex, interconnected, evolving system. </p>
<p>Viewing the world <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-019-0005-6">in this way</a> helps us understand what we have done to our environment – and how to begin fixing the problems. </p>
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<p>Will’s scientific, policy and advocacy efforts were directed at helping us recognise our role as planet-shapers. He knew we must transform our mindset from exploitation to stewardship if we, and our planet as we know it, are to survive. </p>
<p>His career is an exemplar of how to be an interdisciplinary, inclusive, caring and socially responsible sustainability scientist. Let us continue his legacy.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">'Failure is not an option': after a lost decade on climate action, the 2020s offer one last chance</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mountaineer and scientist Will Steffen said climbing was similar to science: “That’s the buzz you get in science when you solve a big problem and suddenly see how it all fits together”John Finnigan, Leader, Complex Systems Science, CSIROPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROSteven J Lade, Resilience researcher at Australian National University, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961592022-12-08T10:58:39Z2022-12-08T10:58:39ZChina wants more people to eat potatoes – how changing national diets could help fix our global food crisis. Podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499538/original/file-20221207-3544-o2ubdo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=128%2C157%2C6442%2C4215&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China began promoting potatoes as a staple in 2015 in an effort to combat food insecurity. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/luannan-county-china-july-3-2019-1535629190">chinahbzyg via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How do you get a country to change its national diet? That’s what China has been trying by introducing potato as a staple as part of an effort to improve food security. In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a>, we talk to three experts about why countries need to shift what their citizens eat, and what the optimum diet for our planet might be. </p>
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<p>Chinese farmers plant the largest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652621011021">amount of potatoes in the world</a>, and the country produces about 20% of the global potato output. But while fresh potatoes are a traditional part of the Chinese national diet, they’re viewed as a vegetable rather than as a staple, and China’s per capita consumption of potato is below the global average. </p>
<p>In 2015, the Chinese government decided to try and change that. It introduced a policy to promote the potato as the country’s fourth staple alongside rice, wheat and maize. As Xiaobo Xue Romeiko, a professor at the University at Albany, State University of New York in the US explains, behind the strategy lay concerns over food security and the availability of arable land. “Potato is more versatile and it can be grown in marginal land which is not suitable as our arable land,” she says.</p>
<p>Potatoes are also less energy intensive to grow and, according to her <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6695635/#B1-ijerph-16-02700">research</a>, have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from food production in China, particularly if it introduces varieties with higher yields. </p>
<p>Other countries may need to follow China’s lead. As pressures mount on the global food system thanks to climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, food security has become a central issue for many more governments. “At the moment the food system really is under the highest stress,” says Paul Behrens, associate professor in environmental change at Leiden University in the Netherlands. In 2022, the UN’s food price index, which measures monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities, has <a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">hit record highs</a>. </p>
<p>Behrens says that many of the responses from governments so far have been short-sighted. “I don’t see an awful lot of governments considering the fundamental system transitions that are needed to really secure food systems and make them more resilient to future climatic change.” He argues that countries need to radically change their nations’ diets, specifically in high-income nations where the over-consumption of meat is driving much of the interlocking crisis. </p>
<p>So what would an optimum diet that is nutritious and sticks within planetary boundaries actually look like? A group of researchers put their heads together to find out and came up with the <a href="https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/the-planetary-health-diet-and-you/">EAT-Lancet diet</a>, also known as the planetary health diet. </p>
<p>One of them was Marco Springman, a professor of climate change food systems and health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK, and also a senior researcher at the University of Oxford. “You shouldn’t have more than one serving of red meat per week. Not more than two servings of poultry per week, not more than two servings of fish per week. And if you have dairy, not more than one serving per day,” he says. Counting that up, that means being vegetarian or vegan on two days a week. </p>
<p>To find out more about where responsibility lies to shift national diets, listen to the full episode on <a href="https://podfollow.com/the-conversation-weekly/view">The Conversation Weekly podcast</a>. </p>
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<p>This episode was produced by Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. It was written by Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the show’s executive producer. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. </p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Springmann receives funding from The Wellcome Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Behrens and Xiaobo Xue Romeiko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.</span></em></p>Why countries need to shift what their citizens eat, and what the optimum diet for our planet might be. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationDaniel Merino, Associate Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825622022-06-27T14:20:26Z2022-06-27T14:20:26ZHuman disruption to Earth’s freshwater cycle has exceeded the safe limit, our research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466060/original/file-20220530-20-zvmbva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6613%2C3720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/extreme-drought-cornfield-under-hot-sun-1129539992">Scott Book/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Green water – the rainwater available to plants in the soil – is indispensable for life on and below the land. But in a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00287-8">new study</a>, we found that widespread pressure on this resource has crossed a critical limit.</p>
<p>The planetary boundaries framework – a concept that scientists <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">first discussed in 2009</a> – identified nine processes that have remained remarkably steady in the Earth system over the last 11,700 years. These include a relatively stable global climate and an intact biosphere that have allowed civilisations based on agriculture to thrive. Researchers proposed that each of these processes has a boundary that, once crossed, puts the Earth system, or substantial components of it, at risk of upset.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">comprehensive scientific assessment</a> in 2015 found that human activity has already breached four of the planetary boundaries. Greenhouse gas emissions are brewing a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">hotter climate</a>, the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1922686117">sixth mass extinction</a> of species is unpicking the web of life that makes up the global biosphere, intensive farming is <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/can-the-world-find-solutions-to-the-nitrogen-pollution-crisis">polluting the environment</a> and natural habitats are being <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/land-use-change-has-affected-almost-a-third-of-worlds-terrain-since-1960/">destroyed</a> on a significant scale. Earlier in 2022, researchers announced that a fifth planetary boundary had been <a href="https://theconversation.com/chemical-pollution-exceeds-safe-planetary-limit-researcher-q-a-on-consequences-for-life-on-earth-175256">crossed</a> with the emission and accumulation of <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">chemical pollution and plastics</a>. </p>
<p>So far, it has been suggested that human use of freshwater is still <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">within safe limits globally</a>. But earlier assessments only considered the extraction of what is called blue water – that which flows in rivers and resides in underground aquifers. Even then, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1877343513001498?via%3Dihub">regional boundaries</a> are likely to have been crossed in many river basins due to a sixfold increase in the extraction of blue water <a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/175/2016/">over the past century</a>. Besides irrigating crops to sate growing demand from people and livestock, population growth and higher standards of living have raised global <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378012001318">domestic and industrial water consumption</a>, disrupting aquatic ecosystems and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0032688">decimating</a> the life within them.</p>
<p>By including green water in our assessment, we found that freshwater’s ability to sustain a stable Earth system is even more threatened than first reported.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The crossing of planetary boundaries could destabilise humanity’s safe operating space in the Earth system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azote/Stockholm Resilience Centre</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Red alert for green water</h2>
<p>Radiation from the sun evaporates green water in the soil, cooling the environment and returning moisture to the atmosphere where it forms <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127">clouds and rain</a>. This cycle sustains some of Earth’s most important ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest which makes up roughly <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.0801915105">40% of global tropical forest</a>, stores roughly <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1019576108">112 billion tonnes of carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/22/why-the-amazons-biodiversity-is-critical-for-the-globe">harbours 25% of land-based life</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-clouds-are-the-missing-piece-in-the-climate-change-puzzle-140812">Why clouds are the missing piece in the climate change puzzle</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0022169482901172">Research</a> shows that clearing forests reduces the flow of moisture to the atmosphere, dampening how efficiently the Earth system can circulate water and ultimately putting ecosystems like the Amazon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14681">at risk of collapse</a>. Global heating and changes to how the land is used, especially deforestation, are among the biggest factors responsible for humanity’s transgression of this planetary boundary. Their combined influence indicates that the planetary boundaries interact and need to be treated as <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00478-4">one networked system</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An excavator digs up soil in a tropical forest clearing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Deforestation can halt the flow of green water in the hydrological cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deforestation-rainforest-environmental-problem-destruction-forest-1956048232">Santhosh Varghese/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Food production also depends on green water. Around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1464190900000046">60% of staple food production</a> globally and <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%290733-9496%282006%29132%3A3%28129%29">80% of cultivated land</a> is rain-fed. In these areas, the only water reaching the crop is what rain provides. Even irrigated crops rely on rain to some extent.</p>
<p>We found that since the industrial revolution, and especially since the 1950s, larger parts of the world are subject to significantly drier or wetter soil. This shift towards extreme conditions is an alarming development due to the indispensable role of water in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915518300099">maintaining resilient societies and ecosystems</a> </p>
<p>More frequent and severe dry spells mean prolonged and more intense <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2002411117">droughts</a> in many regions, like those currently affecting <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-window-of-opportunity-to-address-increasing-drought-and-expanding-drylands-is-vanishing-176731">Chile and the western US</a>. This limits photosynthesis in plants, which absorb <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0424-4">less of the CO₂</a> heating Earth’s atmosphere. The land carbon sink, which currently soaks up about <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1783/2019/">30% of annual CO₂ emissions</a>, is weakened as a result, and could even <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002">become a net source</a> of carbon in the future.</p>
<p>Too much soil water is no good either. Water-saturated soils make floods more likely and suffocate plant growth. Abnormally large quantities of water evaporating from wet soils can <a href="https://science.thewire.in/environment/india-monsoon-refuses-retreat-erratic-rainfal-uttarakhand-floods/">delay the onset of monsoons</a> in places like India, where the dry season has extended and disrupted farming. High humidity combined with high temperatures can also cause deadly heatwaves, as the human body quickly overheats when sweating <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjbq5p/indias-heat-wave-is-a-grim-warning-for-deadly-wet-bulb-temperatures">becomes impossible in very moist air</a>. Several regions, like South Asia, the coastal Middle East and the Gulf of California and Mexico, are <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected">experiencing this lethal combination</a> much earlier than expected.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Growing scientific evidence suggests that the planet is both drier and wetter than at any point within the last 11,700 years. This threatens the ecological and climatic conditions that support life. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that the sixth planetary boundary has been crossed. But ambitious efforts to slow climate change and halt deforestation could still prevent dangerous changes to the cycling of Earth’s <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1817380116">green water</a>. Along with other measures, switching farming practices <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_1129-1">to sustainable alternatives</a> would prevent more soil being degraded and losing its moisture. <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wat2.1406">Explicitly governing green water</a> and its protection in policy and legal frameworks may also be necessary. </p>
<p>Research has shown that farming is a major cause of <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss4/art8/">multiple planetary limits</a> being breached. Shifting diets towards sustainable plant-based food is a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">simple yet highly effective</a> option for keeping humanity within these boundaries.</p>
<p>Humanity is no longer in the safe zone. Immediate action is needed to maintain a resilient and nourishing freshwater cycle. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arne Tobian receives funding from the European Research Council through the ‘Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene’ project (no. ERC-2016- ADG 743080). He is affiliated with the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dieter Gerten is research team leader at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and also professor for Global Change Climatology and Hydrology at the Geographical Institute of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lan Wang-Erlandsson receives funding from the European Research Council through the ‘Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene’ project (no. ERC-2016- ADG 743080) and financial support from the IKEA Foundation.</span></em></p>‘Green water’ is essential for healthy soils and a benign climate, but it’s under threat.Arne Tobian, PhD Candidate in Planetary Boundaries, Stockholm UniversityDieter Gerten, Working Group Leader, Terrestrial Safe Operating Space, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLan Wang Erlandsson, Researcher and Theme leader, Anthropocene Dynamics, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837282022-06-06T05:59:22Z2022-06-06T05:59:22ZAustralia has overshot three planetary boundaries based on how we use land<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467102/original/file-20220606-16-ocqxbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4096%2C3280&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We used to believe the world’s resources were almost limitless. But as we spread out across the planet, we consumed more and more of these resources. For decades, scientists have warned we are approaching the limits of what the environment can tolerate.</p>
<p>In 2009, the influential Stockholm Resilience Centre first published its <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">planetary boundaries</a> framework. The idea is simple: outline the global environmental limits within which humanity could develop and thrive. This concept has become popular as a way to grasp our impact on nature. </p>
<p>For the first time, we have <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/living-within-limits-adapting-the-planetary-boundaries-to-understand-australias-contribution-to-planetary-health">taken these boundaries</a> – which can be hard to visualise on a global scale – and applied them to Australia. We found Australia has already overshot three of these: biodiversity, land-system change and nitrogen and phosphorus flows. We’re also approaching the boundaries for freshwater use and climate change. </p>
<p>The nation’s land use is a key contributor to these trends, with natural systems under increasing pressure as a result of many land management practices. Luckily, we already know many of the solutions for living within our limits, such as waste management, conservation and restoration of natural lands in conjunction with agriculture, and shifts in food production. </p>
<h2>What are planetary boundaries?</h2>
<p>In 2015, scientists took stock of how humanity was tracking, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">warning</a> four of nine boundaries had already been crossed. </p>
<p>While such warnings make global headlines, they can also leave people wondering, “What does this actually mean for me?”</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RgqtrlixYR4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This TED talk on planetary boundaries has helped popularise this approach.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-your-actions-really-save-the-planet-planetary-accounting-has-the-answer-104005">Can your actions really save the planet? 'Planetary accounting' has the answer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is the question we have sought to answer for Australia and its land use sector. We took five of these global boundaries and calculated what Australia’s “share” of those would be in our <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/living-within-limits-adapting-the-planetary-boundaries-to-understand-australias-contribution-to-planetary-health/">new technical report</a>. </p>
<p>We then went one step further, breaking down what these boundaries mean for Australia’s land use industries, such as agriculture and forestry.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="fallen trees in tasmania" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467106/original/file-20220606-12-tpqupv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Land-system change can pose major threats for nature.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>These limits are not abstractions – they’re real</h2>
<p>These are real-world limits. Pushing past them has real-world consequences.</p>
<p>Take nitrogen and phosphorus flows, which refers to the levels of these chemicals in the nation’s waterways.</p>
<p>In around 50% of our river catchments, we already have concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus past the safe level for the health of the environment. These chemicals are applied as fertiliser to cropland and pasture. If there’s too much, it can run off into waterways. Once in our rivers, these chemicals can fuel dangerous algal blooms which can force the closure of popular recreational areas, fill lakes with weeds and hurt fish and other wildlife. </p>
<p>Tackling one environmental issue often has benefits for others. Improving water quality has benefits for biodiversity, because the plants and animals supported by those rivers have better water to live off and in.</p>
<p>Why does biodiversity matter? The diversity of life on our continent <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11148">plays a critical role</a> in keeping ecosystems stable and sustaining vital services – such as fresh air and water – they provide to wildlife and to us.</p>
<p>It’s well known areas with lower numbers of species and lower genetic diversity prove <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10122">generally less resilient</a> to shocks. That means these environments are at higher <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-019-0797-2">risk of tipping</a> into a state where they can no longer provide the services vital to life. </p>
<p>Different species occupy different niches within ecosystems, meaning the loss of one or two can erode the functioning of the system as a whole.</p>
<p>Protecting and restoring biodiversity is therefore critical to achieving planetary health. Unfortunately, biodiversity is among the boundaries Australia has already overshot. The number of species threatened by our activities is growing, and many of our endangered animals are at risk of extinction. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dead fish algal bloom" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467104/original/file-20220606-16-6986u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fertiliser overuse can trigger algal blooms and kill fish and other water species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We know what we need to do</h2>
<p>With <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/resource/living-within-limits-adapting-the-planetary-boundaries-to-understand-australias-contribution-to-planetary-health/">this report</a>, we contribute to the national conversation about how Australia can stay within its fair share of planetary limits and contribute to the global effort for sustainable development.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-loss-has-finally-got-political-and-this-means-new-thinking-on-the-left-and-the-right-116910">Biodiversity loss has finally got political – and this means new thinking on the left and the right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Agriculture, forestry and other land use industries also have a critical role to play in reducing emissions and sequestering carbon. But the land use sector is under increasing pressure from growing populations, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.</p>
<p>Understanding what sustainability means in practical, measurable terms for Australia’s land use sector is vital to enable humanity to continue to prosper.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Romy Zyngier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time, we calculated Australia’s share of planetary environmental boundaries and found we’ve shot past three already.Romy Zyngier, Senior Research Manager, Climateworks CentreLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1791492022-03-29T17:01:30Z2022-03-29T17:01:30ZHere’s how the new global treaty on plastic pollution can help solve this crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454503/original/file-20220327-23-t0nolq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The global issue of plastic pollution has been has been worsening every year, disrupting the entire ecosystem.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/here-s-how-the-new-global-treaty-on-plastic-pollution-can-help-solve-this-crisis" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.unep.org/interactives/beat-plastic-pollution/">Plastic pollution is a global problem</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc4428">contaminating terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems</a>. Microplastics — plastic particles smaller than five millimetres in size — infiltrate and circulate in the global planetary <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5819">dust cycle</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/EN14167">water cycle</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.609243">carbon cycle</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b01517">Microplastics have infiltrated</a> the food and water we consume and the air we breathe. These tiny plastic particles can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2044">harm wildlife</a> populations and communities, threatening the ecological balance. A new paper suggests plastics are a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">planetary boundary threat</a> and that we are outside the safe operating space. </p>
<p>In early March, after years of negotiations, delegates from 175 nations committed to <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/historic-day-campaign-beat-plastic-pollution-nations-commit-develop">draft the first global treaty on plastic pollution</a> at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi. This resolution comes 30 years after the creation of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change">first global treaty to address climate change</a> in 1992, which recognized there was a problem with greenhouse gases but did not include quantitative global targets until the <a href="https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a> in 2005. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://rochmanlab.wordpress.com/people/">researchers studying plastic pollution</a> and <a href="https://uofttrashteam.ca/">working at the science-policy interface</a>, we believe there is enough evidence regarding contamination and the effects of plastic pollution to see that the first treaty on plastic needs to include quantitative targets and binding measures that facilitate a circular economy — a system that focuses on reusing and reducing plastic waste. </p>
<h2>No time to waste</h2>
<p>As with climate change, the urgency to find a solution to plastic pollution is clear. Trends show an <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/07/23/breaking-the-plastic-wave-top-findings">increasing trajectory for plastic emissions</a> — plastic emitted into the environment — just as they do for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In 2021, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656">estimated</a> that around 30 million tonnes of plastic waste was emitted into freshwater and marine ecosystems. If we continue business as usual, that number could increase more than two-fold by the end of this decade. </p>
<p>In 2017, we called for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714450114">global treaty</a> to facilitate collaboration on this global issue, and in 2020 a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba3656">systemic shift in the plastics economy</a> — bending our current linear plastic economy (take-make-waste) into a circular economy (take-make-reuse), fundamentally changing the way we use plastic materials to minimize waste. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A giant art sculpture showing a tap outpouring plastic bottles." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454447/original/file-20220325-13-12z1ag5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A giant art sculpture showing a tap outpouring plastic bottles was erected outside the UN Environment Program headquarters in Nairobi, on March 2, 2022, during the UN Environment Assembly where delegates met to discuss a binding international framework to address the growing problem of plastic waste in the world’s oceans, rivers and landscapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Brian Inganga)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our vision of an effective treaty</h2>
<p>A global treaty on plastic must have a circular economy at its core. It should also set global targets for reducing plastic emissions akin to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> for carbon emissions. </p>
<p>To facilitate success, the treaty should include global mechanisms that incentivize a circular economy, methods for reporting plastic emissions at the local and national level and resources that aid economies in measuring and reducing these emissions.</p>
<p>To measurably reduce plastic emissions, we envision a global treaty where countries sign on as signatories with a defined reduction target. For example, each country might agree to reduce 40 per cent of its emissions by 2030 from base-year levels. </p>
<p>To facilitate a circular economy, there needs to be a global cap on virgin plastic production, recycled content standards or a shift from incentives for virgin plastic to incentives for post-consumer recycled plastic.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zCRKvDyyHmI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When it comes to dealing with plastic waste, we need to switch our take-make-waste approach for a take-make-reuse one.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each country needs to come up with a strategy to meet reduction targets. Because there is no one-size-fits-all solution, each country may take on its own set of unique solutions to reach its target. </p>
<p>For example, countries may adopt <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43571269">container deposit schemes</a> to increase recycling rates, eliminate the use of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/12/government-of-canada-moving-forward-with-banning-harmful-single-use-plastics0.html">single-use plastic items</a> like plastic bags and straws that are not essential and do not fit into a circular economy, improve waste collection and management infrastructure, and agree to market only plastics that are either recyclable or reusable in their region, if not both. </p>
<p>Each year countries must report their plastic emissions to a body like the <a href="https://unfccc.int/">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)</a> as part of this treaty. Determining baseline emissions, setting reduction targets and tracking our progress towards meeting those targets require formal accounting. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pile of plastic waste littered in a forest area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454845/original/file-20220328-23-1qivtvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regular reporting of plastic emissions to the UNFCCC as part of this new treaty could help countries set reduction targets and track their progress towards meeting those targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here, another tool we can borrow from climate policy is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c01038">emissions inventory</a>, which accounts for the total amount of emissions that originates from relevant sources within cities, provinces, states or countries. </p>
<p>Emissions inventories help prioritize the reduction of emissions from the largest sources within a given region and are necessary to accurately check the effectiveness of solutions. Emissions inventories will quantify progress, identify leaders and laggards and document the success of our transition to a circular economy.</p>
<p>For some countries, aid will be necessary to build new infrastructure for reducing plastic pollution. These countries need access to a global fund, similar to the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about/governance#:%7E:text=It%20is%20guided%20by%20the,funding%20to%20mitigation%20and%20adaptation.">UNFCCC’s climate fund</a>. To build this fund, an extended producer responsibility program — a materials management program funded by those who make plastics — can be implemented. For example, if a fund pulled in $0.01 for every pound of virgin plastic produced, it would have equated to <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/282732/global-production-of-plastics-since-1950/">$8 billion per year</a> in 2020. </p>
<h2>Let’s get to work</h2>
<p>For plastic pollution, the phrase “there is no time to waste” is not just clever, it is spot on. As we negotiate how we will end plastic pollution, the problem continues to grow. We cannot wait another decade to establish baselines, reduction targets and thresholds for the safety of our environment and human health. </p>
<p>We are optimistic about the recent resolution to draft a global treaty on plastic pollution and thrilled that <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/02/canada-supports-a-new-legally-binding-global-agreement-on-plastics-as-un-meeting-kicks-off-in-kenya.html">Canada aims to be a leader</a> in its creation and actions necessary to make positive change.</p>
<p>International governments have provided an opportunity for systemic change, so let us make the most of it and develop a global treaty with quantitative targets and binding resolutions that measurably reduce our production of plastic waste and pollution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A global treaty on plastic pollution must incentivize a take-make-reuse waste management system and include quantitative targets based on geography-specific emissions.Chelsea Rochman, Assistant Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of TorontoXia Zhu, PhD Student, Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1752562022-01-20T15:38:36Z2022-01-20T15:38:36ZChemical pollution exceeds safe planetary limit: researcher Q+A on consequences for life on Earth<p><em>The production and release of plastics, pesticides, industrial compounds, antibiotics and other pollutants is now happening so fast and on such a large scale that it has exceeded the planetary boundary for chemical pollution, the safe limit for humanity, a <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">new study claims</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez, a PhD candidate at Stockholm University and one of the authors of the study, to explain what this means.</em></p>
<p><strong>What are planetary boundaries?</strong></p>
<p>In 2009, an international team of researchers identified <a href="https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=iss_pub">nine planetary boundaries</a> that maintain the remarkably stable state Earth has remained within for 10,000 years – since the dawn of civilisation.</p>
<p>These boundaries include greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the ozone layer, an intact biosphere and freshwater. The researchers quantified the boundaries that influence Earth’s stability and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">concluded in 2015</a> that human activity has breached four of them. Greenhouse gas emissions are pushing the global climate into a new, hotter state, species extinctions threaten the biosphere’s integrity, the conversion of forests to farmland has degraded the quality of land and industrial and agricultural processes have radically altered natural cycles of phosphorus and nitrogen. </p>
<p>The researchers lacked the data to quantify the boundary for chemical pollution, otherwise known as novel entities (essentially, any substances made by humans plus natural elements like heavy metals which human activity mobilises or transports at high volumes), until now. Our research suggests we have crossed this boundary and beyond the known safe operating space for humanity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram depicting how much humanity has transgressed planetary boundaries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441577/original/file-20220119-17-dg6a45.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In uncharted territory: humanity is transgressing boundaries which maintain a stable planetary state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">Stockholm Resilience Centre</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How did you discover this?</strong></p>
<p>This project involved 14 authors in five countries and was led by <a href="https://www.sei.org/people/linn-persson/">Linn Persson</a>, an expert in chemical pollution at the Stockholm Environment Institute. We wanted to be able to understand the consequences of taking, using and releasing novel entities on a larger scale in the face of huge gaps in our knowledge. Essentially, we wanted to go beyond the individual’s ability to experience and comprehend these things.</p>
<p>We investigated a set of control variables that capture several of the complexities and characteristics of the planetary boundary for chemical pollution. One of these is the trend in the production of novel entities – the volume of chemicals and plastics produced, or the share of chemicals available on the market that have data on their safety or are assessed by regulators.</p>
<p>Another thing we assessed was the continued trend of global emissions of these chemical substances, including plastics, into the environment. We also considered the unwanted effects of these entities on ecosystem processes by drawing on evidence of the toxicity of chemical pollution or the role of plastics in disturbing the biosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large tropical fish swims among plastic waste." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441725/original/file-20220120-9603-nyvvsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plastic waste is accumulating in the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fish-plastic-pollution-envrionmental-problem-plastics-1039303867">Rich Carey/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>When did humanity breach this limit?</strong></p>
<p>It is difficult to say specifically when humanity breached the planetary boundary for chemical pollution. Unlike other boundaries, this one deals with thousands of different entities. </p>
<p>We know there has been <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2022-01-18-safe-planetary-boundary-for-pollutants-including-plastics-exceeded-say-researchers.html">a 50-fold increase</a> in the production of chemicals since 1950. This is projected to triple again by 2050. Plastic production alone increased 79% between 2000 and 2015. </p>
<p>There are 350,000 synthetic chemicals in production globally, and only a very small fraction of these is assessed for toxicity. We know little about their cumulative effects or how they behave in a mixture. This is important, as we are all exposed to (often) small concentrations of thousands of substances over our entire lives. We are only beginning to understand the large-scale, long-term effects of this exposure.</p>
<p>We judged that <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">the boundary had been transgressed</a> because the rate at which these pollutants are appearing in the environment far exceeds the capacity of governments to assess the risk, let alone control potential problems.</p>
<p>What is very important to us is that this study highlights the global scale and severity of chemical pollution. Not only because of the effects of producing and releasing such huge volumes of these substances into the environment on a daily basis, but also because it puts into perspective the consequences of human activity on a geological scale. These changes, led by humans, will have persistent and cumulative effects long after we have gone and industries have stopped pumping them out.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An oil refinery illuminated at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441735/original/file-20220120-8679-18jsvxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil demand is likely to fall in future, so petrochemical companies are ploughing more money into plastic production.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-oil-refinery-plant-factory-609092363">Avigator Fortuner/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What are some of the possible consequences of exceeding this planetary boundary?</strong></p>
<p>We have observed the problems and risks associated with chemicals and plastics during their entire life cycle. Currently, this is largely linear: from extraction, to production, to use, to waste and, finally, to release into the environment.</p>
<p>Damage can occur at all of these stages. For example, fossil fuels are extracted by processes that can lay waste to entire habitats. These raw materials then give rise to plastics and pesticides which take lots of energy and generate lots of climate-warming gases during manufacture. They are used to wrap food or are applied to farm fields, and then they end up in the soil or in rivers and, eventually, the ocean.</p>
<p>Their environmental impacts might be easiest to visualise according to their effect on other planetary boundaries. Plastics are tightly connected to the climate – <a href="https://www.minderoo.org/plastic-waste-makers-index/findings/executive-summary/">approximately 98%</a> of all plastics are made from fossil fuels and <a href="https://theconversation.com/plastic-warms-the-planet-twice-as-much-as-aviation-heres-how-to-make-it-climate-friendly-116376">will release CO₂</a> when burned as garbage. Chemicals and plastics both affect biodiversity by adding additional stress to already beleaguered ecosystems. Some chemicals interfere with animal hormone systems, disrupting <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-reefs-climate-change-and-pesticides-could-conspire-to-crash-fish-populations-142689">growth</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/plastic-poisons-ocean-bacteria-that-produce-10-of-the-worlds-oxygen-and-prop-up-the-marine-food-chain-117493">metabolism</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/male-fertility-how-everyday-chemicals-are-destroying-sperm-counts-in-humans-and-animals-158097">reproduction</a> in wildlife.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-human-made-materials-now-weigh-as-much-as-all-living-biomass-say-scientists-151721">Anthropocene: human-made materials now weigh as much as all living biomass, say scientists</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Are some parts of the world exceeding this limit more than others?</strong></p>
<p>This problem is a planetary one. As I understand it, the production and release of chemical pollution is intrinsic to the global economic system. In this way, the problem is like any other major environmental issue, including climate change.</p>
<p>People are exposed to these chemicals everywhere, not only in the countries where they are produced. We all use these products and chemicals keep being released while we use them. We consume them and then dispose of them, though they don’t simply go away. </p>
<p>There is a constant flow of them, and so, the situation is becoming more and more alarming. Even as we learn more, we are also making visible the vast unknowns that remain.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three workers in protective suits spray pesticides onto rows of strawberries." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441740/original/file-20220120-9372-magblr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Farmland globally is routinely soaked in a cocktail of chemicals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/farmers-spraying-pesticides-strawberry-garden-location-416875402">Adriano Kirihara/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Where should governments prioritise action in order to bring humanity back within the safe limit as soon as possible?</strong></p>
<p>I would like to cite my colleagues here. Professor Carney Almroth of Gothenburg University in Sweden says that the world must “work towards implementing a fixed cap on chemical production and release”.</p>
<p>Associate Professor Sarah Cornell, my supervisor at Stockholm University, says:</p>
<p>“Shifting to a circular economy is really important. That means changing materials and products so they can be reused not wasted, designing chemicals and products for recycling, and much better screening of chemicals for their safety and sustainability along their whole impact pathway in the Earth system.”</p>
<p>We do not wish to paralyse readers with despair. Rather, we want to inspire action. We believe we are still on time to revert this situation, but for that we need urgent and ambitious action to take place at an international level.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The production and release of synthetic chemicals worldwide is destabilising the Earth system.Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Development, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1708852021-11-12T10:33:49Z2021-11-12T10:33:49ZSix areas where action must focus to rescue this planet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431653/original/file-20211112-25-16gi94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sandstorm approaching Merzouga Settlement in Erg Chebbi Desert, Morocco.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pavliha/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For some time, the Earth’s natural resources have been depleted faster than they can be replaced. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has set a 2030 <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/">deadline</a> to reduce heat-trapping emissions by half to avoid climate change that is both irreversible and destructive. </p>
<p>With colleagues, we coauthored a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/1/8/5610806">climate emergency warning paper</a> in 2019. It has now been co-signed by 14,594 scientists from 158 countries. We also produced <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/6/446/5828583?login=true">an extension</a> in 2020 and a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-climate-emergency-2020-in-review/">grim update</a> in 2021. Our warnings are supported by thousands of research studies, many referenced in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> papers.</p>
<p>In our new <a href="https://www.scientistswarningeurope.org.uk/">paper</a>, we move beyond warnings and call for concrete actions. These must happen in six areas, at six levels – from household to community, city, state, nation and global – and on three timescales.</p>
<p>In the next three decades, the world must dramatically decrease greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to return to a more stable climate. To do this, we identify priority actions for energy, pollutants, nature, food, population and economy. </p>
<p>This takes place on three timescales – by 2026, 2030, and 2050. By 2050, carbon dioxide emissions must not exceed removals. After that, we must lower atmospheric concentrations by taking enough carbon out of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Our paper, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00368504211056290">summarised here</a>, is intended to guide society, decision makers, planners, managers and financial investors with a framework for action. Yet humanity’s biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioural. </p>
<h2>Energy: less, cleaner, more with less</h2>
<p>It is essential to reduce demand for energy by increasing energy productivity. That means getting more energy services – heating, cooling, lighting, transport, electricity and mechanical work – out of less primary energy. Fossil fuels are the largest sources of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane, and must be replaced. Our paper recommends the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Follow much more ambitious road-maps for energy transformation to halve carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.</p></li>
<li><p>Create economic incentives to provide <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617300518">energy services</a> with less primary energy.</p></li>
<li><p>Replace primary energy from coal, oil, natural gas and wood with solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and hydro energy, wherever ecologically appropriate.</p></li>
<li><p>Account for all emissions and black carbon (soot) from burning bioenergy.</p></li>
<li><p>Levy high carbon prices on air travel, inefficient vehicles, appliances, buildings and carbon intensive goods.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Pollutants: reduce and remove</h2>
<p>Methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon and other atmospheric pollutants add directly to global heating. Our warming world is melting permafrost, releasing heat-trapping methane. Policies must:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Rapidly reduce methane emissions from agriculture, industry, and oil and gas production.</p></li>
<li><p>Develop effective atmospheric methane removal practices. </p></li>
<li><p>Require large methane producers to pay for atmospheric removal. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce methane, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons that produce heat-trapping pollutants. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons from refrigerants, solvents and other sources. </p></li>
<li><p>Reduce nitrous oxide emissions from fertilisers, fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Natural climate solutions</h2>
<p>Biodiverse natural ecosystems, including forests, wetlands, grasslands, peatlands and oceans, are essential for our planet to function. This includes carbon management. They remove and store 56% of annual <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">carbon emissions</a>, preventing additional warming. </p>
<p>Society needs to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Protect carbon dense ecosystems to cover 30% of the Earth’s surface by 2030 and remove all emitted carbon dioxide by 2050.</p></li>
<li><p>Halt destruction of these essential systems. </p></li>
<li><p>Restore degraded ecosystems.</p></li>
<li><p>Greatly reduce land conversions by 2026 and halt them by 2030.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Food system reform</h2>
<p>Agricultural production is failing to sustain Earth’s nearly 8 billion people without unacceptable damage to climate, land and water. The global food system generates <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6392/987">more than 25%</a> of greenhouse gas emissions and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252">consumes 70%</a> of freshwater. Expanding inefficient agriculture causes deforestation and nutrient runoff. It creates coastal low oxygen dead zones. To avoid widespread famines this century, leaders and farmers must:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Shift production to foods that use land and water more efficiently.</p></li>
<li><p>Use farming methods that regenerate the environment and store carbon in soils.</p></li>
<li><p>Support farmers in these transitions, especially small farmers.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Population stability</h2>
<p>Population growth undermines efforts to protect nature and people. Leaders and civil society should:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Embed population actions in economic, social and political agendas.</p></li>
<li><p>Invest more in family well-being through health, education and economic policies. </p></li>
<li><p>Support poorer families to advance economically and educationally.</p></li>
<li><p>Protect everyone’s right to life purposes other than parenting.</p></li>
<li><p>Increase aid for family planning.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Economic reform</h2>
<p>Economies must operate within <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">planetary boundaries</a>. Leaders need to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Correct market failures through appropriate taxes, subsidies and regulations. </p></li>
<li><p>Create economic frameworks for profitable activities that protect and restore nature. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce reforms to sustain farm and forest lands, oceans, rivers and wetlands. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce land rights and urban planning models that encourage efficient land use. </p></li>
<li><p>Develop economic policies that halt loss of wild lands. </p></li>
<li><p>Introduce policies to reduce climate altering emissions and restore socially efficient local production.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>We must accelerate these transformations, while maintaining social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still possible on many, but not all fronts. Avoiding each tenth of a degree increase in global temperature improves the lives of billions of people, thousands of species and ecosystems.</p>
<p>Humanity can choose cooperation, wisdom, innovation, and ethics – or not. People can learn from past mistakes and create better societies. Leaders’ main challenge in the next decade may be to hold the rudder steady as society transforms on an almost impossible timescale. Our actions, or inaction, will determine whether we meet the challenges of the coming decades, and persist as civilised societies. </p>
<p><em>Our paper is open <a href="https://www.scientistswarningeurope.org.uk">here</a> for signature by anyone with a degree in natural, political, social, health, educational, behavioural or other science.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phoebe Barnard receives funding from Automated Visual Inspections and has received grants from the South African National Research Foundation, University of Cape Town, the Royal Society, and Leverhulme Trust. She is a board member of Scientists Warning Europe, Merz Institute, and Transition Fidalgo, and a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Society for Conservation Biology and American Society of Adaptation Professionals. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Moomaw receives funding from Rockefeller Brothers' Fund. He is affiliated with Woodwell Climate Research Center, The Climate Group, The Nature Conservancy, Union of Concerned Scientists, Young Voices for the Planet</span></em></p>Humanity’s biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioural. Effective actions are still possible to stabilise the climate and the planet, but must be taken now.Phoebe Barnard, CEO and Exec Director, Stable Planet Alliance; Affiliate Full Professor, University of Washington; Research Associate, African Climate and Development Initiative and FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape TownWilliam Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483472020-10-22T03:31:04Z2020-10-22T03:31:04ZBob Brown is right – it’s time environmentalists talked about the population problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364899/original/file-20201022-15-1a4rhvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4950%2C3221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In all the talk of tackling environmental problems such as climate change, the issue of population growth often escapes attention. Politicians don’t like talking about it. By and large, neither do environmentalists – but former Greens leader Bob Brown has bucked that trend.</p>
<p>Brown recently <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fbob-brown-urges-green-movement-to-get-behind-cuts-to-population-levels%2Fnews-story%2Fe47a78bf0d8b53d144b6c49800bb0cba&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium">declared</a> the world’s population must start to decline before 2100, telling The Australian newspaper:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are already using more than what the planet can supply and we use more than the living fabric of the planet in supply. That’s why we wake up every day to fewer fisheries, less forests, more extinctions and so on. The human herd at eight billion is the greatest herd of mammals ever on this planet and it is unsustainable to have that growing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Research <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/12/1026/4605229">suggests</a> our species has far exceeded its fair share of the planetary bounty, and Brown is right to call for the global population to peak. It is high time others joined the chorus – not only other environmentalists, but those concerned with international development and human rights.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people walking on a crowded street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364900/original/file-20201022-18-iwc4eu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bob Brown says the global population should peak before 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Population growth, by the numbers</h2>
<p>COVID-19 has killed more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/coronavirus-million-deaths-told-in-10-charts/12710378">one million people</a>. While undeniably tragic, the figure is minor compared to world’s annual growth in population, estimated by the United Nations at about <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html">83 million</a>.</p>
<p>In 1900, the world’s population was about <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/9/140920-population-11billion-demographics-anthropocene/">1.6 billion</a> people. By 2023 it’s <a href="https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/world-population-2020-overview">expected to</a> hit 8 billion. <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf">According to the UN</a>, it will reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.</p>
<p>(The US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620306772">recently forecast</a> a lower peak of about 9.7 billion by 2064, falling to about 8.8 billion by 2100.)</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-global-fertility-really-plummeting-how-population-forecasts-are-made-142848">Is global fertility really plummeting? How population forecasts are made</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Why is the population growing so fast? Much of it is due to advanced fertilisers and intensive farming practices, leading to higher crop yields that can sustain more people. Health care has improved, and people are living much longer. And many parts of the world have historically had high fertility rates.</p>
<p>There is no expert consensus on how many people the planet can support. The answer will largely depend on how much humans produce and consume, now and in the future. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02211719">Some experts believe</a> we’ve already hit the limit.</p>
<p>The “<a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html">planetary boundaries framework</a>” is one way to measure Earth’s carrying capacity. Introduced about a decade ago, it involves nine planetary boundaries such as biodiversity loss, climate change and ozone depletion. If the boundaries are crossed, Earth’s capacity to support civilisation is at risk. Research <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720306186">suggests</a> in some parts of the world, multiple boundaries have already been breached.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of coal mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364903/original/file-20201022-20-oavojb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In some places, Earth’s limits have already been exceeded.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s time to talk</h2>
<p>In recent decades, many conservationists, politicians and scientists have been reluctant to talk about population growth.</p>
<p>When The Australian approached Greenpeace, the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Wilderness Society regarding Brown’s remarks, the groups said they did not comment on population growth. Brown told the newspaper environmentalists avoided the issue because they were “frightened” of being targeted by News Corp.</p>
<p>In an address to the National Press Club this month, Greens leader Adam Bandt reportedly wouldn’t say whether he is concerned about population growth, saying “my priority is getting energy at running on 100% renewable. That makes much more of a difference than […] population size.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-breastfeeding-sparked-population-growth-in-ancient-cities-128812">How breastfeeding sparked population growth in ancient cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Bandt wouldn’t be the first environmental advocate to <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/26/16356524/the-population-question">avoid the topic</a>. But why? I believe there are three main reasons.</p>
<p>Most obvious is the fear of being <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11615086/">accused of</a> racism. Some past advocates of population “control” supported eugenics and coercion, including forced sterilisation and abortion. In fact, eugenics and forced sterilisation has been reported in both <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09687599826669?casa_token=Su93YigrMYAAAAAA:YkJ_E0sVtucOAyP2Y0p6FJgyxcEKSahdurfUiDGy-7xgS3Oqg6xZFSPNkPT-zxN_kUrICwkbzoj4UsQ">rich</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1057/fr.1988.28?journalCode=fera">poor</a> countries. </p>
<p>Second, the Catholic Church has <a href="http://churchandstate.org.uk/2015/02/the-pope-and-the-new-apocalypse-the-holy-war-against-family-planning/">played a big role in</a> suppressing the topic. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6081774/">In the 1960s</a> a papal commission suggested the church’s decades-long <a href="https://w2.vatican.va/content/pius-xi/en/encyclicals/documents/hf_p-xi_enc_19301231_casti-connubii.html">ban</a> on birth control be dropped. But in 1968, Pope Paul VI rejected the advice, and <a href="http://w2.vatican.va/content/paul-vi/en/encyclicals/documents/hf_p-vi_enc_25071968_humanae-vitae.html">declared</a> artificial birth control to be morally wrong.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A statue of Pope Paul VI" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364902/original/file-20201022-18-6f4xwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A statue of Pope Paul VI, who believed birth control was morally evil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Third is the ascendancy of free-market economics. High population growth in low-income countries is <a href="http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/the-sage-handbook-of-nature/i6463.xml">convenient</a> for capitalism, because these <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0309816811418952?casa_token=Kr7gvAup370AAAAA%3AQPJ-wEoAYPihbu8xehZO_6BJ0_LAi72QHi3IS0-SMTIC2SRuFZe7MDkwH8VewIDwQw2pEeT90Mp72hE">populations</a> depress wages worldwide.</p>
<p>In 1984, the Reagan administration became the first in a long line <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1973376?casa_token=u2bU3SICLdcAAAAA%3AMD4MS-UA4OlxnJEDBrh5uYZ5ZbfNg64FnFPVcCtwLd1URTyXDzao243-97O6oOjErIY4DmUpiFHK7rbINWicFLO8aE1jz7wZlj9AhL0hCS2GwU60mCeYSg&seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">to deny</a> the importance of population problems. Its views were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0016328785900564">influenced</a> by economic theorist Julian Simon, who <a href="https://aapt.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1119/1.14144?casa_token=hgdmvrmmjhgAAAAA%3ATy0tjqS1PAD0CTUi94ao1rMkB5BKmYY5DlzgfumOyW6QRCbKLYJPyV38AnOKJuEKI-CaDE4UWBOPIA&">believed</a> adding to the world’s population was good for human well-being.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Globe populated by people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364901/original/file-20201022-18-uc8kox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Julian Simon argued adding to the world’s population was good for human well-being.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Starting the conversation</h2>
<p>As Brown said, we should be “having a mature debate” about population growth. But where to start? </p>
<p>An obvious beginning is the unmet demand for contraception. For example, a <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA_Reproductive_Paper_20160120_online.pdf">UN report</a> in 2015 reported fewer than half of African women who are married or in a union, and who need contraception, have their family planning needs satisfied.</p>
<p>Slowing global population growth will be helped by promoting the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">UN Sustainable Development Goals</a>. One goal seeks to ensure “universal access to reproductive health and family planning” by 2030. Improving female literacy – especially when combined with internet access – is also an important way to empower women.</p>
<p>Apart from reproductive health care, general improvements to health, including well-funded health systems, would give couples greater confidence their children will thrive. This would reduce their perceived need for <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00324728.1976.10412734">additional children</a> in case one or more dies. </p>
<p>These measures all require increased investment and public attention. The environmental movement, in particular, must awaken to the link between population growth and environmental degradation. “Business as usual” will hinder human development, further oppress women and magnify many forms of environmental damage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-we-need-to-focus-on-increased-consumption-as-much-as-population-growth-138602">Climate explained: why we need to focus on increased consumption as much as population growth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin D. Butler received funding from the Australian Reseach Council from 2011 to 2015. He is a member of the scientific advisory committee for Doctors for the Environment, Australia</span></em></p>Our species has far exceeded its fair share of the planetary bounty, and Brown is right to call for the global population to peak.Colin D. Butler, Honorary Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413612020-08-18T20:11:05Z2020-08-18T20:11:05ZWe each get 7 square metres of cropland per day. Too much booze and pizza makes us exceed it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353115/original/file-20200817-22-1gv66l8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C13%2C2978%2C1983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Croplands are a valuable, yet scarce natural resource. To guard against serious and potentially irreversible environmental harm, croplands should not extend beyond <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/">15% of the earth’s ice-free surface</a>. </p>
<p>Croplands are mainly used for food production. So it’s important to ask whether our diets are biting off more than our fair share.</p>
<p>In recent <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/5/1212">research</a>, we looked at the cropland footprints of the diets of more than 9,000 Australian adults, involving more than 5,000 foods.</p>
<p>We found if everyone ate like the average Australian, the 15% limit on the area for global croplands would be exceeded, albeit modestly. Reducing our intake of discretionary foods such as cakes, biscuits, pizza and hot chips is the best way to make our diets more sustainable.</p>
<h2>The average Australian diet</h2>
<p>Ploughing new lands for crop production entails the loss of forest and grassland, which can threaten biodiversity through habitat loss, and disturb water and nutrient cycles through changes in drainage and fertiliser use.</p>
<p>Croplands are used to grow cereals such as wheat. They are also used to grow fruits and vegetables, nuts, oilseeds and legumes. Perhaps less obviously, crops are used to feed livestock and in aquaculture.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353291/original/file-20200818-20-uqsilj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian dietary habits vary enormously.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/">landmark research in 2009</a>, leading scientists proposed the idea of “planetary boundaries” to mark the thresholds for our use of the environment, such as the area of croplands.</p>
<p>If global croplands are to occupy no more than 15% of the ice-free land surface, as they proposed, the total area cannot extend beyond about 2 billion hectares. It’s difficult to know for sure, but it’s likely the world is already approaching this boundary, or even marginally exceeding it. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-food-system-is-at-risk-of-crossing-environmental-limits-heres-how-to-ease-the-pressure-104715">Our food system is at risk of crossing 'environmental limits' – here's how to ease the pressure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With today’s global population of around 7.8 billion, this limit means the requirements of an individual’s daily diet should not exceed more than 7 square metres of cropland.</p>
<p>Our research found that on average, Australian adult diets slightly exceed this amount, requiring 7.1 square metres per day.</p>
<p>However, the world’s population is rapidly increasing and is expected to surpass <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html#:%7E:text=The%20world%20population%20is%20projected,and%2011.2%20billion%20by%202100.">8.5 billion by 2030</a>. At 9 billion, the global share of croplands shrinks to around 6.1 square metres per person per day.</p>
<h2>Eating beyond the boundary</h2>
<p>The good news is Australian dietary habits vary enormously. Already, many Australians are eating well and within the global cropland boundary. Australians with healthier diets and lower cropland footprints required only 4.2 square metres per day.</p>
<p>These lower footprint diets were distinguished by much lower consumption of <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/food-essentials/discretionary-food-and-drink-choices">discretionary foods</a>. These are energy-dense and nutrient-poor foods high in saturated fat, added sugars, added salt, and alcohol — ingredients associated with foods with high-crop use. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-takes-21-litres-of-water-to-produce-a-small-chocolate-bar-how-water-wise-is-your-diet-123180">It takes 21 litres of water to produce a small chocolate bar. How water-wise is your diet?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example, potato chips are made from potato and vegetable oil, both of which require cropland. Even beer depends on cropland, using barley and hops in its production. </p>
<p>Along with reducing food waste, reducing the intake of discretionary foods to sensible levels is the most important action Australians can take to make their diets healthier and more sustainable. </p>
<p>These discretionary foods also tend to lead to the over-consumption of energy due to their high energy density, which is not only a problem for the environment, but also our waistlines.</p>
<p>Processed foods often use a surprising amount of cropland. An apple might weigh 100 grams, but a small glass of apple juice might use 400 g of apples.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The five food groups" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353295/original/file-20200818-24-1g3wm5a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stick to the five food groups, though it’s important to limit the consumption of poultry and pork to keep your cropland footprint down.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/food-essentials/five-food-groups">eatforhealth.gov.au</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/guidelines">Australian Dietary Guidelines</a>, most Australian’s consume too many discretionary foods instead of choosing foods from the <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/guidelines/australian-guide-healthy-eating">five food groups</a>: grains, vegetables and legumes, fruits, dairy products and meats.</p>
<h2>Animal-sourced foods</h2>
<p>Following discretionary foods, the second largest contribution to the cropland footprint is from the “fresh meat and alternatives” food group. This food group includes eggs, nuts and legumes and is an important source of protein and nutrients.</p>
<p>In this food group, wild-caught seafood and game meats had no associated cropland use. Also at the lower end of the scale were tofu and pulses like chickpeas (0.17 and 0.18 square metres per serving).</p>
<p>Lamb and beef had moderate cropland footprints (0.64 and 0.82 square metres per serving). That’s because in Australia, sheep and cattle mostly graze on grasslands.</p>
<p>But livestock have higher cropland footprints when they’re fed with crop-based feed such as cereals, soybeans and oilseed meals.</p>
<p>This includes aquaculture salmon (0.70 square metres per serving), chicken (1.62 square metres per serving) and pork (2.21 square metres per serving). Eggs require 0.98 square metres of cropland per serving.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vegan-foods-sustainability-claims-need-to-give-the-full-picture-121051">Vegan food's sustainability claims need to give the full picture</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>If Australians follow the <a href="https://www.eatforhealth.gov.au/guidelines/australian-guide-healthy-eating">Australian Dietary Guidelines</a>, it is possible to eat within the global cropland boundary and there is flexibility to enjoy a variety of foods in the “fresh meats and alternatives” food group. </p>
<p>However, the guidelines don’t specify how much poultry or pork should be eaten, which becomes an issue if these meats make up a big part of a diet. </p>
<p>Diets compliant with the Australian Dietary Guidelines that were within the global cropland boundary contained more seafood, beef, lamb and vegetarian food. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353289/original/file-20200818-16-rgq8fk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Make chips a sometimes food to eat within the appropriate cropland boundary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s also important to note croplands across Australia and the world are not equally productive. To provide a reliable measure of resource use, we calculated cropland footprints taking both the area occupied and productive potential into account. </p>
<p>In Australia, for example, average wheat yields are typically below 2 metric tons per hectare. Compare this to northern Europe, where <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home">wheat yields</a> of between 6 and 10 metric tons per hectare are common. </p>
<p>In any case, sticking to a healthier diet as described in the dietary guidelines, with moderate intake of cropland-intensive poultry and pork, is the best way to ensure you’re eating within sustainable cropland boundaries. Otherwise there just won’t be enough food to go around.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-hurting-farmers-even-seeds-are-under-threat-128722">Climate change is hurting farmers – even seeds are under threat</a>
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</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Ridoutt has undertaken food systems research related to environmental issues for a variety of private sector organizations and Australian government agencies. This includes Dairy Australia and Meat and Livestock Australia - the latter of which partially funded this research.</span></em></p>Reducing our intake of discretionary foods such as cakes, biscuits, pizza and hot chips is the best way we can make our diets more sustainable.Brad Ridoutt, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO Agriculture, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1350642020-04-02T14:58:36Z2020-04-02T14:58:36ZCoronavirus will have long-term implications for business leaders. Here are the top five<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/324856/original/file-20200402-74895-bnq2ox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Health of society depends on a decent social welfare system, absence of extreme poverty and inequality</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the COVID-19 crisis <a href="http://www.health.gov.za/index.php/outbreaks/145-corona-virus-outbreak/465-corona-virus-outbreak">unfolds</a>, the focus of business leaders and others has been on <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/coronavirus-crisis-companies-engineers-rally-to-sas-emergency-ventilator-cause-20200401">immediate responses</a> and short-term time horizons. This is for good reason. Yet there are initial signs of how the crisis may be shaping longer-term assumptions about business and its context. </p>
<p>The spread of the pandemic has brought to the fore the need for business leaders to recognise the crucial interdependencies between business and its environmental, social, and governance context. </p>
<p>In addition, given the massive public sector contributions to companies during the crisis, and recognising companies’ reliance on healthy societies, business leaders will need to appreciate amendments to the social contract that underlies societal support for their operations. </p>
<p>They will need to do much better in working with others in safeguarding planetary boundaries, strengthening the social immune system, and building capable and accountable states. </p>
<p>Below I set out five implications of the pandemic for business leaders.</p>
<h2>Paying attention to planetary boundaries</h2>
<p>The emergence of the virus is linked to humans’ callous treatment of wild and domesticated animals for food and dubious medicinal benefit. COVID-19 thus shows that current approaches to the trading and consumption of wild and domesticated animals are not only ethically and ecologically problematic, but also highly risky to ourselves. </p>
<p>More broadly, the risks of zoonotic diseases (those that spread to humans from animals) have risen as people increasingly squeeze wildlife into ever tighter corners. As noted by the author <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-china.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytopinion">David Quammen</a>, as </p>
<blockquote>
<p>we disrupt ecosystems… we shake viruses loose from their natural hosts.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many scientists – and also an increasing number of <a href="http://www.ethicalcorp.com/wake-call-we-must-live-within-our-planetary-boundaries-avoid-future-pandemics">business leaders</a> – thus see COVID-19 as a tragic example of the broader risks to business and societies from our seeming inability to address environmental risks associated with climate change, biodiversity loss, and other “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-6486.2012.01073.x">planetary boundaries</a>.”</p>
<h2>Strengthening the ‘social immune system’</h2>
<p>COVID-19 highlights for businesses their interdependence with the social fabric in which they are embedded. One implication is that businesses are directly affected by the scope and quality of countries’ social welfare systems. Provisions of the welfare state, including sick leave, have turned out to be crucial. They not only cushion the blow to vulnerable workers, but also help reduce the spread of the disease.</p>
<p>A related concern is the vicious cycle between COVID-19 and poverty and social inequality. Poor people are particularly exposed to contracting the disease, and they are less likely to receive good medical attention if they get sick. They are also much more exposed to the negative economic impacts. </p>
<p>The health of the society on which businesses depend thus depends on the existence of a decent social welfare system and the absence of extreme poverty and inequality. This has been referred to as the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?fbclid=IwAR32QbguQ1ugrSEKHbY4zuZZogIRxI_4u7qH_NMk07nEz5gynLBl3sFhqjQ">social immune system</a>.” Business leaders will need to recognise how vital it is for their companies’ long-term health, as well.</p>
<h2>Building capable and accountable states</h2>
<p>For the last 50 years, many business leaders inspired by <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-capitalism-solve-capitalisms-problems-130427">Milton Friedman and his doctrine</a>, or just motivated by selfishness, have chipped away at the idea that we need a strong state. The emphasis has been on reducing the role of the state and leaving more and more responsibilities to market actors. </p>
<p>But now business leaders are crying out for decisive government action in response to COVID-19. The assumption that we don’t need capable governments has been turned on its head.</p>
<p>Business leaders have also stood idly by in recent years as political leaders have self-servingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-want-to-build-trust-in-science-and-technology-the-alternative-is-too-risky-to-contemplate-116269">eroded confidence in science</a>. COVID-19 has highlighted the folly of this. </p>
<p>The US’s President Donald Trump and Brazil’s Jair Messias Bolsonaro <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/insane-many-scientists-lament-trump-s-embrace-risky-malaria-drugs-coronavirus">openly derided scientific advice</a> on the pandemic. President John Joseph Pombe Magufuli of Tanzania has urged churches to stay open because the coronavirus is “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/tanzanian-president-under-fire-for-worship-meetings-amid-virus">satanic</a>.” </p>
<p>COVID-19 is showing how leaders’ lack of interest in or inability to make good use of science can have disastrous consequences. It is showing up with great urgency a similar problem with other serious but more longer-term challenges, such as climate change.</p>
<p>At the same time, there are concerns that some government leaders are using the crisis as an opportunity to deepen their authoritarian grasp on societies. They are applying <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/03/26/the-state-in-the-time-of-covid-19?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2020/03/26n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/A/436254/n">surveillance mechanisms</a> to control the pandemic, but also to control people. </p>
<p>This is expressing itself in states<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/coronavirus-is-a-chance-for-authoritarian-leaders-to-tighten-their-grip"> known for their authoritarianism</a>, such as China and Hungary. But a much broader range of states are using technologies to monitor people in ways that would have been considered preposterous a few months ago.</p>
<p>So, on the one hand, business leaders will need to recognise the need to build capable states and evidence-based government. At the same time, they will also need to be proactive in ensuring that states remain accountable and respectful of individual freedoms. </p>
<h2>Managing crises responsibly</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 crisis is many ways unique. But it is also part of a broader pattern of increasingly frequent crises, as we push beyond planetary boundaries. </p>
<p>In South Africa, businesses were just recovering from a <a href="https://www.drought-response-learning-initiative.org">record-breaking drought</a> when the crisis hit. In Australia, people were still reeling from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-12/the-wildfire-crisis-is-starting-to-hurt-australian-companies">disastrous fires</a>. </p>
<p>Business leaders will need to recognise that crises will become less exceptional and thus their responses must become better prepared, more proactive, and more responsible. They must respond to both the synergies and tensions between business and community resilience. </p>
<p>Often, ensuring business continuity is a vital contribution that business leaders can make to the communities in which they operate. For example, in many countries pharmacies and retailers still have products in store. This isn’t an accident but the result of highly sophisticated and energetic responses that commenced already in January. </p>
<p>The news has also been full of impressive efforts by companies to <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/from-perfume-to-hand-sanitiser-tvs-to-face-masks-how-companies-are-changing-track-to-fight-covid-19/">repurpose</a> their production facilities or to make products and services <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-workers-offered-free-cars-and-bikes-to-keep-them-safe-during-outbreak-11964859">available</a> to medical workers.</p>
<p>Other efforts to continue with business during the crisis have been less benign. Some have sought to keep operating despite public health warnings to the contrary, such as some gyms. Others are more brazenly opportunistic, for instance by peddling questionable “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2020/03/09/fda-issues-warnings-to-companies-selling-fraudulent-covid-19-therapies/#5cd9ea0e5a39">health products</a>” or through <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/coronavirus-price-gouging-hand-sanitizer-masks-wipes.html">price gouging</a>.</p>
<p>Another form of opportunistic behaviour is for companies or associations to make use of the crisis to influence public spending or policy in their favour. For example, coal companies <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/critics-cry-foul-at-miners-truckers-citing-virus-to-bend-rules">have lobbied hard</a> (and in the US, quite successfully) to benefit from government stimulus packages. This has been despite <a href="https://clubofrome.org/impact-hubs/climate-emergency/open-letter-to-global-leaders-a-healthy-planet-for-healthy-people/">widespread calls</a> to align such stimulus efforts with the imperative to address climate change.</p>
<p>In coming decades, business leaders will need to distinguish themselves by showing strong crisis management capabilities in maintaining business continuity, and by contributing more clearly to societal resilience.</p>
<h2>Collaborating in a new social contract</h2>
<p>The crisis is of such scope and depth that many business leaders and managers are engaging in a radical shift towards coordination and collaboration with the government and civil society organisations. In South Africa, for example, business leaders have <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bt/opinion/2020-03-29-the-crisis-and-co-operation-this-time-may-indeed-be-different/">established</a> working groups interacting with national government to coordinate the crisis response in terms of public health, as well as social and economic impacts. </p>
<p>This shift is as swift, far-reaching, and seemingly natural as would have been unimaginable a few months ago. </p>
<p>The challenge for the next few years will be for a similar commitment to collaboration to address shared social and environmental problems before they manifest in crises like this one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Hamann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COVID-19 has brought to the fore the interdependency of business and society. It’s time for amendments to the social contract that underlies societal support for business.Ralph Hamann, Professor, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1169102019-05-20T11:19:37Z2019-05-20T11:19:37ZBiodiversity loss has finally got political – and this means new thinking on the left and the right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274951/original/file-20190516-69178-1viqatu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/collage-animals-eyes-152088716?src=0fCRZMKP1W-S9RQRfauZKQ-1-31">Rosa Jay/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world recently discovered that disastrous deterioration in the health of most of the planet’s ecosystems means that <a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-collapse-the-wild-relatives-of-livestock-and-crops-are-disappearing-116759">a million species</a> are threatened with extinction. This is among <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">the findings</a> of the most thorough ever survey of the state of the biosphere, carried out by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).</p>
<p>These findings come at a time when concern about environmental problems is ramping up significantly, with school students’ strikes, the nonviolent direct action of Extinction Rebellion, and official preparations taking place for a major global conference on biodiversity, to be held in China in October 2020.</p>
<p>All this is changing the nature of the debate about biodiversity. In the UK, and most other Western countries, the decline of the natural world has for many years generally been seen as “non-political”. After all, we all love animals and plants, don’t we? Their conservation has found champions and supporters across the political spectrum. WWF (World Wildlife Fund) has traded on cuddly pandas, royal patrons, and “corporate partnerships”. And for most of its history and in most of the countries it works in, any idea that biodiversity loss is a political issue is unwelcome.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-collapse-the-wild-relatives-of-livestock-and-crops-are-disappearing-116759">Biodiversity collapse: the wild relatives of livestock and crops are disappearing</a>
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<h2>Biodiversity politics</h2>
<p>But this story is becoming less and less plausible. Ecosystem deterioration, along with climate change, is now becoming a controversial political question. </p>
<p>This is partly because the urgency and extent of the problem have become all too clear. The question of biodiversity loss can no longer be seen as about saving your favourite zoo animal species. It is increasingly obvious that the problem of decline is much more pervasive, throughout the whole biosphere. This turns the problem from being about the conservation of charismatic species such as the snow leopard to becoming a threat to food supplies and ultimately human survival.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274953/original/file-20190516-69174-ano7vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Looking beyond the leopard.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/swarm-bees-flight-on-nice-sunny-1265145760?src=cyVWx8s-VbGufZ85Xd1kPg-1-4">TravelPhotoSpirit/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Then add to this the rise of climate change as a factor in causing extinctions and biodiversity loss. As recently as the 1990s, its impacts were <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1008934324223">not seen</a> as one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. But now climate catastrophe is recognised as one of the most important <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">causes of decline</a>, and it is therefore now increasingly difficult to divide the issue of biodiversity loss from that of the climate. Since climate science denial has become a right-wing political cause, biodiversity joins it in the political arena.</p>
<p>In addition, IPBES investigated causation more than previous large-scale studies have done. Tracing that through takes us from natural science outcomes back into human behaviour, institutions, and economies, for example through the question of why land use changes, and how that is affected by international trade and what we eat. For example, consumer demand for <a href="https://theconversation.com/replanting-oil-palm-may-be-driving-a-second-wave-of-biodiversity-loss-116840">palm oil</a> in a wide variety of products directly results in deforestation in Indonesia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-putting-even-resilient-and-adaptable-animals-like-baboons-at-risk-115588">Climate change is putting even resilient and adaptable animals like baboons at risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Moving up the agenda</h2>
<p>So biodiversity has certainly become politicised, in terms of debates about ideas. However, beyond green parties, the impact of this shift is not yet felt within Western political parties.</p>
<p>In the UK, for example, although global climate change has registered with the political parties, efforts to find answers about global biodiversity issues have been led by those working in natural science, civil servants, and the voluntary sector, rather than by politicians. This might now change.</p>
<p>As biodiversity moves up the political agenda, a real-world focus in economics is likely to be part of the change. This means examining how the organisation of the food industry, the energy sector, international finance, and other key parts of the world economy, contribute to ecosystem decline.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274954/original/file-20190516-69182-162mhuq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The economic case for biodiversity is going to have to be made – but there are problems with this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/american-dollars-grow-ground-212751259?src=GmQ0HpZ9NtjQ2cBrLBPN0w-1-2">Nomad_Soul/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The left should have a relatively easy time doing this, because it has always been critical of the way the capitalist economy is organised. But there are problems here. In my experience, many of the scientific defenders of biodiversity see any public perception of a connection of the issue with the left as a liability. The other is that the left has not historically given these issues a high priority, often being as wedded as most of the right is to a view of economic progress as being unproblematic – at least if it wasn’t for inequality in the distribution of wealth and income. </p>
<p>On the right, there is a tendency to rely on market forces. But the market, in reality, is largely driven by firms minimising their costs. They do so by avoiding paying for all the resources they use and benefit from, for example, the capacities of the environment to absorb carbon. </p>
<p>There is a <a href="http://www.planetexperts.com/companies-pay-environmental-damage/">strong case</a> for making companies pay for such environmental services, including requiring them to renew resources which are run down, like the natural productivity of the soil. Although this is consistent with economic ideas about markets, who is to make them pay? It will be hard to achieve that without a strong degree of state intervention, which will be anathema to many of those most keen on market forces.</p>
<p>The recent politicisation of biodiversity will therefore require some new thinking, rather than simply being used to confirm existing beliefs. Without that happening,
those who love plants and animals, and who want to see human life sustained, will not get beyond the surface of the current crisis.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116910">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Anderson receives funding from the Arts & Humanities Research Council and the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. He is a member of the Advisory Group of the Green House think-tank.</span></em></p>Ecosystem deterioration, along with climate change, is now becoming a controversial political question.Victor Anderson, Visiting Professor at Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1102222019-05-17T13:19:13Z2019-05-17T13:19:13ZWe’ve declared a climate emergency – here’s what universal basic income could do to help the planet<p>Governments around the world are declaring “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-48198095">climate and environmental emergencies</a>” to highlight the unsustainable ways in which humans, over a few generations, have transformed the planet.</p>
<p>We’ve made enough concrete to cover the entire surface of the Earth in a layer <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6269/aad2622">two millimetres thick</a>. Enough plastic has been manufactured to <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6269/aad2622">Clingfilm it as well</a>. We annually produce 4.8 billion tonnes of our top five crops and <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home">4.8 billion</a> head of livestock. There are 1.2 billion motor vehicles, 2 billion personal computers, and more mobile phones than the <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">7.6 billion people</a> on Earth.</p>
<p>Globally, human activities move more soil, rock and sediment each year than is transported by all other <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/298/298037/the-human-planet/9780241280881.html">natural processes</a> combined. Factories and farming remove as much nitrogen from the atmosphere as all Earth’s natural processes and the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">global climate is warming so fast</a> that we have <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/human-emissions-will-delay-next-ice-age-by-50000-years-study-says">delayed the next ice age</a>.</p>
<p>We’ve entered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-began-with-species-exchange-between-old-and-new-worlds-38674">Anthropocene</a> and left behind the stable planetary conditions of the past 10,000 years that allowed farming and complex civilisations to develop.</p>
<p>Today’s globally interconnected network of cultures relies on a stable global environment. So how do we design national and international policies to deal with this global climate and environmental emergency?</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254768/original/file-20190121-100295-ek6kg3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Increase in human population, fertiliser use, water consumption and vehicle ownership in the world since 1900.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maslin & Lewis</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0194-x">A study in Nature Sustainability</a> recently attempted to summarise and evaluate the different types of policies that could be used to save our environment. </p>
<p>The study is based on the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">planetary boundaries concept</a> developed by a team of academics led by sustainability researcher Johan Rockström and Earth system scientist Will Steffen. They defined nine physical environmental boundaries that, if exceeded, could result in abrupt changes and serious repercussions for human civilisation. </p>
<p>We’ve already crossed three of these boundaries by changing the climate, <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf">destroying biodiversity</a> and disrupting the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles through agriculture.</p>
<p>This study focused purely on physical limits to human life on Earth and didn’t deal with the underlying dynamics of consumer capitalism which govern most of human life. In contrast, economist <a href="https://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut/">Kate Raworth</a> combines the physical and social needs of humanity by including water, food and health alongside education, employment, and social equality. Between these two sets of needs is a just operating space for humanity. </p>
<p>Living within this space, according to Raworth, demands inclusive and sustainable economic development, which is becoming known as “<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196%252817%252930028-1/fulltext">donut economics</a>”. At a fundamental level, it means we design our economic policies to look after the planet and everyone on it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/254770/original/file-20190121-100295-11wzg63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adaptation of Kate Raworth’s illustration of donut economics and how physical and social needs of society must be considered together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kate Raworth</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Nature Sustainability study focuses on command and control policies such as taxes, subsides and fines, instead of looking at what is <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/280/280466/the-value-of-everything/9780241188811.html">driving consumption</a>. Essentially, the authors apply old policies to try and fix the problem of the Anthropocene, which given its scale, needs a whole new set of ideas.</p>
<p>One of these is <a href="https://www.thersa.org/action-and-research/rsa-projects/economy-enterprise-manufacturing-folder/basic-income">universal basic income</a> (UBI) – a policy that would guarantee a financial payment to every citizen, unconditionally, without any obligation to work, at a level above their subsistence needs. </p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/pathways-to-universal-basic-income/creative-citizen-creative-state-a3cef3f25775">Small-scale trials of UBI show</a> that educational attainment is higher, healthcare costs go down, entrepreneurship levels both in numbers of people and success rates go up, as does <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47169549">self-reported happiness</a>. However, UBI does more than this: it could break the link between work and consumption.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-new-deal-universal-basic-income-could-make-green-transition-feasible-112898">Green New Deal: universal basic income could make green transition feasible</a>
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</em>
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<p>Breaking this could, if carefully managed over time, dramatically reduce environmental impacts by slowing the treadmill of producing and consuming things that currently fuels untrammelled economic growth. We could work less and consume less, and still meet our needs. Fear for the future would recede, meaning we wouldn’t have to work ever harder for fear of having no work in the future. This is especially important as automation and intelligent machines will increasingly compete with humans for most jobs.</p>
<p>One argued use for UBI would return anything not spent by people to the original pool, <a href="https://www.centreforwelfarereform.org/library/by-az/how-to-fund-a-universal-basic-income.html">meaning the money can’t be saved</a>. Wealthy people may not use it at all, but it would guarantee that essentials are affordable for the poorest.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/reports/basic-income">UBI therefore eliminates extreme poverty and reduces dependency</a>. It gives people the agency to say “no” to undesirable work, including much environmentally damaging work, and “yes” to opportunities that often lie out of reach. With UBI we could all think long term, well beyond the next pay day. We could care for ourselves, others, and the wider world, as living in the Anthropocene demands.</p>
<p>A second radical policy of environmental repair could come from the simple but profound idea that we allocate half the Earth’s surface for the benefit of <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf">other species</a>. “Half-Earth” is less utopian than it first appears. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275113/original/file-20190517-69178-1w8yldi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The return of beavers (Castor fiber) to Scotland 500 years after they were made extinct is a reminder that many parts of the world are getting wilder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beaver-river-summer-time-1137219233?src=4HryuSlV5MoBffH_wNLZ5w-1-0">Abi Warner/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>By 2050, over two thirds of the world’s population will live in <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">cities</a>. We have become an urban species, with the world outside the major cities becoming increasingly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tLfhRqCtQA&feature=youtu.be">wilder</a>. There is an opportunity to return this land to its pre-human wild state through <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541">rewilding</a>. <a href="http://www.bonnchallenge.org/">Mass-scale forest restoration</a> is already underway, with commitments across 43 countries to restore 292m hectares of degraded land to forest – ten times the area of the UK.</p>
<p>UBI would give people the right to choose when it comes to fulfilling their own basic needs. Rewilding Earth does the same for other species’ needs – we would provide the conditions for them to thrive and to manage their own well-being. Instead of relying on 20th-century ideas, we need carefully designed policies that could push society towards a new mode of living in a new epoch. </p>
<p>Surviving the Anthropocene means breaking the cycle of production and consumption undermining the conditions which have allowed our global network of complex civilisations to flourish. Our global climate and environmental emergency will not be solved by modest changes to taxes. Bolder changes would mean we can <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/298037/the-human-planet/9780241280881.html">change the way we live</a> to radically reduce suffering and allow people and <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf">wildlife to flourish</a>.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1110222">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is a Founding Director of Rezatec Ltd, Director of The London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of Cheltenham Science Festival Advisory Committee. He is an unpaid member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board. He has received grant funding in the past from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, Royal Society, DIFD, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust and British Council. He has received research funding in the past from The Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Lewis has received funding from Natural Environment Research Council, the Royal Society, the European Union, the Leverhulme Trust, the Centre for International Forestry, National Parks Agency of Gabon, Microsoft Research, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. </span></em></p>The first step is admitting we have a problem, but what should come next to protect the planet?Mark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCLSimon Lewis, Professor of Global Change Science at University of Leeds and, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1040052018-10-25T05:30:10Z2018-10-25T05:30:10ZCan your actions really save the planet? ‘Planetary accounting’ has the answer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241999/original/file-20181024-48721-1posjto.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7360%2C4912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are you really making a difference?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The climate is changing before our eyes. News articles about imminent species extinctions have become the norm. Images of oceans full of plastic are littering social media. These issues are made even more daunting by the fact that they are literally global in scale.</p>
<p>In the face of these global environmental crises it can be hard to know where to start to help change the state of our planet. But in a paper <a href="https://sustainableearth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s42055-018-0004-3">published in the journal Sustainable Earth</a>, we set out how to translate many of our global environmental issues into action at a more manageable level.</p>
<p>Our approach aims to chop global problems into digestible chunks that you – as an individual, a chief executive, a city councillor, or a national committee member – can tackle. </p>
<p>We call it “planetary accounting”, because it is about creating a series of environmental “budgets” that will stop us overshooting the planet’s natural boundaries. From that, we can then calculate everyone’s fair share, and hopefully in the process make it easier to visualise which individual, corporate or community actions will have a real environmental impact.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-possible-for-everyone-to-live-a-good-life-within-our-planets-limits-91421">Is it possible for everyone to live a good life within our planet’s limits?</a>
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<p>The <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.full">planetary boundaries</a>, developed in 2009, are a set of non-negotiable global limits for factors such as temperature, water use, species extinctions and other environmental variables. These aim to quantify how far we can push the planet before threatening our very survival. </p>
<p>The nine planetary boundaries are listed below; exceeding any of these limits puts us at risk of irreversible global damage. We are currently exceeding four, so it’s fair to say the situation is urgent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241993/original/file-20181024-48727-khe1eu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Summary of the planetary boundaries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Steffen et al. 2015</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite providing important information about the health of our planet, the planetary boundaries fail to answer one very important question: what can we do about it?</p>
<p>The problem with the planetary boundaries is that they are limits for the environment, not for people. They cannot be easily related to human activities, nor do they make sense at smaller scales. </p>
<p>A national government would be hard-pressed to determine what a fair share of the world’s species extinctions might be. A commuter deciding whether to take the bus or drive to work doesn’t really know how her decision will affect the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The planetary boundaries measure outcomes; they do not prescribe actions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/ecological-footprint-3502">ecological footprint</a> – which estimates how many Earths would be required for a given level of human activity – has long been used as a tool for environmental policy and action. But many experts think this measure is too simplistic. How can a single statistic possibly capture the range and complexity of human impacts on our planet?</p>
<h2>Planetary accounting</h2>
<p>This is where planetary accounting comes in. It offers a new approach to understanding the global impacts of any scale of human activity. It takes the “safe operating space” defined by the planetary boundaries, and then uses these limits to derive a set of quotas that we can act on.</p>
<p>Using this approach, we have drawn up a set of ten global budgets for environmental factors, including carbon dioxide emissions, release of nitrogen to the environment, water consumption, reforestation, and so on. </p>
<p>These budgets can then be divided among the world’s population in easily quantifiable units. That way, nations, cities, businesses and even individuals can begin to understand what their fair share actually looks like.</p>
<p>If the planetary boundaries are a health check for planet Earth, then you can think of these quotas as the prescription for a healthy global environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=210&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241994/original/file-20181024-48706-o9nrym.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Planetary Quotas are global budgets for environmental pressures that can be divided and managed at different levels and areas of society.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Newman/Kate Meyer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To extend the health analogy, it’s rather like having a general checkup with a doctor, who might measure a range of variables such as your blood pressure, heart rate, weight and liver function. If any of these are outside the healthy range, the doctor might recommend a healthier diet, more exercise, or avoiding smoking or drinking too much.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-food-system-is-at-risk-of-crossing-environmental-limits-heres-how-to-ease-the-pressure-104715">Our food system is at risk of crossing 'environmental limits' – here's how to ease the pressure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Similarly, if we find we are exceeding our environmental fair share – say, by taking too much carbon-intensive transport, or eating too much nitrogen-intensive food – then we can begin to take action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241995/original/file-20181024-48700-1rtnccu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The planetary quotas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Newman/Kate Meyer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Planetary accounting is designed to work at a range of scales. We could use it to inform anything from individual actions, to city planning targets, to corporate sustainability goals, to global environmental negotiations. </p>
<p>It could even be “gamified”, perhaps in the form of apps that let players compete with one another to live within their share of global environmental budgets. Or it could be used to draw up “planetary labels” similar to the nutritional information labels that help keep food companies honest and the public informed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/241996/original/file-20181024-48709-lufywz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=662&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planetary Facts labels could be used to disclose the critical environmental impacts of goods and services.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Newman/Kate Meyer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Planetary accounting won’t solve all the complex problems our planet faces. But it could make it easier to answer that all-important question: “What can I do to help?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Meyer is the Founding Director for the Planetary Accounting Network, a new not-for-profit research centre dedicated to using planetary accounting to help people live within the planet's limits. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You could take the bus to work, or eat less meat. But how do you know if your efforts are making a difference? A new approach aims to break global environmental budgets down into digestible chunks.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityKate Meyer, Sessional Academic, School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1047152018-10-10T18:42:27Z2018-10-10T18:42:27ZOur food system is at risk of crossing ‘environmental limits’ – here’s how to ease the pressure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240063/original/file-20181010-72106-q8fs4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C3003%2C1981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Pyle / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global food system has a lot to answer for. It is a major driver of climate change, thanks to everything from deforestation to cows burping. Food production also transforms biodiverse landscapes into fields inhabited by a single crop or animal. It depletes valuable freshwater resources, and even pollutes ecosystems when fertilisers and manure washed into streams and rivers.</p>
<p>The planet can only take so much of this stress. Staying within its environmental limits will require a global shift towards healthy and more plant-based diets, halving food loss and waste, and improving farming practices and technologies. That’s what a team of international researchers and I found in a new study published in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0594-0">Nature</a>.</p>
<h2>Crossing environmental limits</h2>
<p>The global food system has fundamentally altered our planet and the resource base humanity depends on. Food production is responsible for about a quarter of all <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608">greenhouse gas emissions</a> and therefore is a major driver of climate change. Agriculture occupies more than a third of the Earth’s <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GB002952">land surface</a> and has led to reductions in forest cover and loss of biodiversity. Farming also uses more than two thirds of all freshwater resources, and the over-application of fertilisers in some regions has led to <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/321/5891/926.long">“dead zones” in oceans</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240071/original/file-20181010-72124-ciw7af.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ‘dead zone’ in the Gulf of Mexico, caused by fertiliser washed into the Mississippi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/2015-gulf-of-mexico-dead-zone-above-average">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without concerted action, we estimated that the environmental pressure of the food system could increase by 50-90% by 2050 as a result of population growth and the continued Westernisation of diets. At that point, those environmental pressures would exceed key planetary boundaries that define a <a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">safe operating space for humanity</a>.</p>
<p>Crossing planetary boundaries would increase the risk of destabilising essential ecosystems. Among others, it could lead to dangerous levels of climate change with higher occurrences of extreme weather events; affect the regulatory function of forest ecosystems and biodiversity; result in disruptions of water flows with impacts on the global hydrological cycle; and pollute water bodies such that it would lead to more oxygen-depleted dead zones in oceans.</p>
<h2>Planetary option space</h2>
<p>Fortunately, such a situation can be avoided. We combined detailed environmental accounts with a model of the global food system that tracks the production and consumption of food across the world. With this model, we analysed several options that could keep the food system within environmental limits. Here is what we found:</p>
<p>Climate change cannot be sufficiently mitigated without people eating a lot less meat. Adopting healthy and more plant-based diets globally could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of the food system by more than half, and also reduce other environmental impacts, such as those from fertiliser application and the use of cropland and freshwater, by a tenth to a quarter.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240072/original/file-20181010-133328-16xay41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not very sustainable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vladimir Mulder / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition to dietary changes, improving management practices and technologies in agriculture is required to limit pressures on agricultural land, freshwater extraction, and fertiliser use. Increasing agricultural yields from existing cropland, balancing application and recycling of fertilisers, and improving water management, could, along with other measures, reduce those impacts by around half.</p>
<p>Finally, halving food loss and waste could, if achieved globally, reduce environmental impact of food production by up to a sixth.</p>
<h2>A call to action</h2>
<p>Many of the solutions we analysed are already being implemented in some parts of the world, but it will need strong global coordination and rapid uptake to make their effects felt.</p>
<p>Take the necessary improvements to farming technologies and management practices, for instance. That would require a lot more investment in research and public infrastructure, it would need the right incentive schemes for farmers to ensure they don’t miss out financially, and things like fertiliser use and water quality would need much stronger regulation.</p>
<p>Tackling food loss and waste will require measures across the entire food chain, from storage and transport, through food packaging and labelling, to changes in legislation and business behaviour that promote zero-waste supply chains.</p>
<p>When it comes to diets, comprehensive policy and business approaches are essential to make serious changes possible and attractive for a large number of people. Important aspects include school and workplace programmes, economic incentives and labelling, and aligning national dietary guidelines with the current scientific evidence on healthy eating and the environmental impacts of our diet.</p>
<p>As an individual, you can help by adopting a healthier diet with less meat. You can call on business to reduce waste across their supply chain and offer more plant-based food options. And you can hold politicians to account by demanding strong regulation of environmental resource use and pollution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Springmann receives funding from Wellcome's "Our Planet, Our Health" partnernship on "Livestock, Environmental and People" (LEAP) based at the University of Oxford.</span></em></p>New research finds a sustainable food system is possible but will require huge global changes.Marco Springmann, Senior Researcher, Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/914212018-02-07T16:51:21Z2018-02-07T16:51:21ZIs it possible for everyone to live a good life within our planet’s limits?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205301/original/file-20180207-74497-yz02cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EmEvn / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a country that met the basic needs of its citizens – one where everyone could expect to live a long, healthy, happy and prosperous life. Now imagine that same country was able to do this while using natural resources at a level that would be sustainable even if every other country in the world did the same. </p>
<p>Such a country does not exist. Nowhere in the world even comes close. In fact, if everyone on Earth were to lead a good life within our planet’s sustainability limits, the level of resources used to meet basic needs would have to be reduced by a factor of two to six times.</p>
<p>These are the sobering findings of research that my colleagues and I have carried out, recently published in the journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0021-4">Nature Sustainability</a>. In our work, we quantified the national resource use associated with meeting basic needs for a large number of countries, and compared this to what is globally sustainable. We analysed the relationships between seven indicators of national environmental pressure (relative to environmental limits) and 11 indicators of social performance (relative to the requirements for a good life) for over 150 countries. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205353/original/file-20180207-74490-bguv78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Americans live the ‘good life’ – but at what cost?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">prochasson frederic / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The thresholds we chose to represent a “good life” are far from extravagant – a life satisfaction rating of 6.5 out of 10, living 65 years in good health, the elimination of poverty below the <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/international-poverty-line-has-just-been-raised-190-day-global-poverty-basically-unchanged-how-even">US$1.90 a day</a> line, and so on.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, we found that the universal achievement of these goals could push humanity past multiple environmental limits. CO₂ emissions are the toughest limit to stay within, while fresh water use is the easiest (ignoring issues of local water scarcity). Physical needs such as nutrition and sanitation could likely be met for seven billion people, but more aspirational goals, including secondary education and high life satisfaction, could require a level of resource use that is two to six times the sustainable level.</p>
<p>Although wealthy nations like the US and UK satisfy the basic needs of their citizens, they do so at a level of resource use that is far beyond what is globally sustainable. In contrast, countries that are using resources at a sustainable level, such as Sri Lanka, fail to meet the basic needs of their people. Worryingly, the more social thresholds that a country achieves, the more biophysical boundaries it tends to transgress. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205279/original/file-20180207-74509-87ygio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Measures of a ‘good life’ vs overuse of resources for different countries (scaled by population). Ideally, countries would be located in the top-left corner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4">O'Neill et al</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>No country currently achieves all 11 social thresholds without also exceeding multiple biophysical boundaries. The closest thing we found to an exception was Vietnam, which achieves six of the 11 social thresholds, while only transgressing one of the seven biophysical boundaries (CO₂ emissions). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205281/original/file-20180207-74497-1ixmgdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vietnam has come closest to balancing sustainability with a good life, but still falls short in some areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4">O'Neill et al</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To help communicate the scale of the challenge, we have created an <a href="https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk">interactive website</a>, which shows the environmental and social performance of all countries. It also allows you to change the values that we chose for a “good life”, and see how these values would affect global sustainability.</p>
<h2>Time to rethink ‘sustainable development’</h2>
<p>Our work builds on previous research led by the Stockholm Resilience Centre, which identified nine “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/461472a">planetary boundaries</a>” that – if persistently exceeded – could lead to catastrophic change. The social indicators are closely linked to the high-level objectives from the UN’s <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/">Sustainable Development Goals</a>. A framework combining both planetary boundaries and social thresholds was proposed by economist Kate Raworth, and is described in her recent book <a href="https://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut/">Doughnut Economics</a> (where the “doughnut” refers to the shape of the country plots, such as the one above for Vietnam). </p>
<p>Our findings, which show how countries are doing in comparison to Raworth’s framework, present a serious challenge to the “business-as-usual” approach to sustainable development. They suggest that some of the Sustainable Development Goals, such as combating climate change, could be undermined by the pursuit of others, particularly those focused on growth or high levels of human well-being.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the relationship between resource use and social performance is almost always a curve with diminishing returns. This curve has a “turning point”, after which using even more resources adds almost nothing to human well-being. Wealthy nations, including the US and UK, are well past the turning point, which means they could substantially reduce the amount of carbon emitted or materials consumed with no loss of well-being. This would in turn free up ecological space for many poorer countries, where an increase in resource use would contribute much more to a good life.</p>
<p>If all seven billion or more people are to live well within the limits of our planet, then radical changes are required. At the very least, these include dramatically reducing income inequality and switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy as quickly as possible. But, most importantly, wealthy nations such as the US and UK must <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/may/01/economics-of-enough">move beyond the pursuit of economic growth</a>, which is no longer improving people’s lives in these countries, but is pushing humanity ever closer towards environmental disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel O'Neill was partially supported by an International Academic Fellowship from the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>No country manages to balance sustainability with meeting basic human needs – but Vietnam comes closest.Dan O'Neill, Lecturer in Ecological Economics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/797432017-06-26T07:03:43Z2017-06-26T07:03:43ZLogically, how is it possible to use more resources than Earth can replenish?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175551/original/file-20170626-321-10j0hzy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to the WWF, we're living off 1.6 Earths' worth of resources.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kevinmgill/32553367763/">Kevin Gill/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the 1970s, humans have used more resources than the planet can regenerate. This is known as overshoot. The <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report_timeline">WWF Living Planet Report</a> has reported overshoot every two years since 2000.</p>
<p>However, this fact can inspire some confusion. How can it logically be possible for us to use more resources than Earth can produce, for decades on end? </p>
<p>There are two basic concepts at work here. One is our <a href="http://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/ecological-footprint/">ecological footprint</a>, which can be very loosely understood as a way of tallying up the resources we use from nature. The other is the planet’s ability to provide or renew those resources every year: its “biocapacity”. </p>
<p>When our ecological footprint exceeds Earth’s biocapacity, that’s unsustainable resource use. Unsustainable resource use can occur for some time. The environmental thinker <a href="http://donellameadows.org/donella-meadows-legacy/donella-dana-meadows/">Donella Meadows</a> used a <a href="https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/climate-bathtub-simulation/">bathtub</a> analogy to explain how. </p>
<p>Imagine a bathtub full of water, with the tap running and the plug out at the same time. It is possible for more water to flow out of the bath than into it for some time without the water in the tub running out. This is because the significant store of water in the bath acts like a buffer. The same goes for nature. </p>
<p>Because nature has accumulated resources – for example, in a forest – it’s possible for us to harvest nature at a greater rate than it can replenish itself for a certain amount of time.</p>
<p>But this leads to the question: if humanity’s ecological footprint exceeds Earth’s biocapacity, how long can we keep going without crossing a tipping point? Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.06.002">recent research</a> investigates this question. </p>
<h2>Explaining the feedback system</h2>
<p>It’s important to make the point that nature provides us with literally everything we need, through processes known as <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/ecosystem-services-key-concepts-and-applications">ecosystem services</a>. Much of this is obvious because we buy and sell it, as food, shelter and clothing. </p>
<p>Other services go largely unnoticed. Forests provide protection from flooding by slowing down surface water runoff, for example, while mangroves absorb carbon dioxide from the air and store it. Until relatively recently, nature has continued to provide, despite our rapidly increasing ecological footprint. </p>
<p>In part this resilience comes from being able to buffer disturbance with the existing store of resources. But there’s an important mechanism that helps natural systems adjust – to a certain extent – to disruption. This is called a feedback mechanism, and if we take the bathtub analogy one step further we can see how it works. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/inVZoI1AkC8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>Say we set up our bathtub so that the tap and the plughole communicate with one another. If more water suddenly starts flowing down the plug, then the tap increases the flow of water into the bath to compensate, thus maintaining the water level. This is an example of a “positive” feedback (more water exiting the bath) being moderated by a “negative” feedback (more water entering from the tap), thus maintaining the state of the system (water in the bath).</p>
<p>Let’s pick a real-world example. Clearing trees from a forest might mean that seeds from the soil have the chance to germinate. If they germinate before the landscape gets too degraded, they can potentially balance out the disturbance.</p>
<p>But harvesting forest also exposes the ground, causing soil loss. In turn, vegetation might find it more difficult to regrow – resulting in yet more soil loss, and so on. This is a “positive” feedback – one that reinforces and exacerbates the original problem. </p>
<p>Negative feedbacks can only adapt to a certain level of disruption. Once the disturbance is too large, they break down. Positive feedback loops can then prevail and the ecosystem is likely to cross a tipping point, resulting in permanent, dramatic and sudden transformation. </p>
<h2>Crossing planetary boundaries</h2>
<p>In our research, my colleagues and I compared future ecological footprints with <a href="http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html">research about planetary boundaries</a> (points at which the risks to humanity of crossing a tipping point become unacceptably high). <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116302314">We found</a> the discrepancy between the ecological footprint and biocapacity is likely to continue until at least 2050. We also found that our global cropping footprint is likely to exceed the planetary boundary for land clearing between 2025 and 2035. </p>
<p>This occurs in the context of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations that have already crossed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">planetary boundary of 350 ppm</a>. (As I write, the carbon dioxide concentration is <a href="https://www.co2.earth/">over 400 ppm</a>.)</p>
<p>By itself, both these points are serious enough. More seriously, we have no idea what happens when two planetary boundaries are approached simultaneously, or two tipping points interact.</p>
<p>We face the <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art20/main.html">permanent loss</a> of essential natural processes, putting, for example, our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378003000827">global food security</a> at risk. Our research shows we need to address gradual, cumulative change, as the global resource buffer shrinks and stabilising feedback mechanisms are overwhelmed. </p>
<p>But there’s good news too. Ecological footprints decrease in response to human decisions. Our current trajectory towards tipping points is not <em>fait accompli</em> at all, but can be influenced by the choices we make now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bonnie McBain received ARC funding for this research.</span></em></p>You may have seen reports that humans use more resources than the Earth can produce – but, logically, how is that possible? A bathtub can help explain.Bonnie McBain, Tutor in Sustainability Science, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/378682015-02-20T17:20:08Z2015-02-20T17:20:08ZCan civilisation continue? An Earth system scientist explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72637/original/image-20150220-21899-1h8tf3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Humanity is already existing well outside of its safe ecological space.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/119200904@N07/16121924161">Artur</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Conversation organised a public <a href="http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/2wazdg/science_ama_series_im_james_dyke_a_lecturer_in/">question-and-answer session</a> on Reddit in which James Dyke, a lecturer in Complex System Simulation, discussed <a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">planetary boundaries</a> and whether global industrialised civilisation is headed for collapse.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>If the world has a finite amount of natural resources, and these resources have been diminishing steadily since the industrial revolution, how is the model of infinite economic growth possibly expected to continue? Doesn’t it have to end eventually?</strong></p>
<p>This is a good question, however I think it’s possibly something of a red herring. That is, we don’t have to worry too much about ultimate or absolute limits to growth. What we need to worry about is how we move towards such limits from where we are right now. </p>
<p>We have an <a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">increasingly narrow space</a> within which to operate, to organise ourselves on Earth. Essentially, we have seriously eroded our choices.</p>
<p><strong>Do you agree that it is already too late to prevent global catastrophe caused by global warming?</strong></p>
<p>No. There is nothing physically insurmountable about the challenges we face. I think it’s very important to continually stress that. Yes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sun-wont-die-for-5-billion-years-so-why-do-humans-have-only-1-billion-years-left-on-earth-37379">in about a billion years time</a> the increase in the size of the sun will mean the death of the biosphere. We have plenty to play for until then.</p>
<p>Sometimes people talk about social transitions. For example in the UK, drink driving and smoking in pubs/bars. It’s become the norm to do neither and that happened quite quickly. It always seems impossible before it is done.</p>
<p><strong>Best estimate. How long do we have to spend all our savings before this hits?</strong></p>
<p>I find it hard to be optimistic about the welfare of some people around the middle to the end of this century if we continue as we are. If we maintain business as usual with regards carbon emissions, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical inputs (we keep exceeding planetary boundaries) then I find it hard to see how our current connected, distributed, industrialised civilisation can function in the way it currently does.</p>
<p>There is no natural law, no physical principle which means the tremendous increases in wellbeing, industrial output, wealth etc observed over the past 300 years have to continue. Consider the broader historical context and you realise we live in extraordinary times. But we have become habituated to this and simply expect the future to resemble the past – and that includes future rates of change.</p>
<p>What largely keeps our current civilisation aloft is fossil fuel use and an unsustainable consumption of natural capital (sometimes discussed in the context of ecosystem services). There are end points for both of these and these end points are decades not centuries away.</p>
<p><strong>I don’t see the connection between a loss in biodiversity and its impact on human civilisation. We depend heavily on crops, raw materials, minerals etc. What does human society depend on which is created by other species?</strong></p>
<p>We do rely on biodiversity. Ecosystems provide all manner of services to us. They provide clean water, pollinate crops, stabilise slopes and coastal regions, house fisheries, regulate climate … If you were to add up how much it would cost us humans to provide such services you produce a ridiculously large number.</p>
<p>But, because these services are “free” we have happily ignored them or rather assumed that we can do pretty much what we want and the ecosystem services will continue to flow. They will not. </p>
<p><strong>Won’t most of the negative effects of ecosystem disruption be disproportionately levelled on poor countries?</strong></p>
<p>Yes. This needs to be continually stressed. This chart scales country size to carbon emissions (top) and increased mortality due to climate change (bottom):</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72626/original/image-20150220-21904-1sirtct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Causes vs consequences. A) shows distribution of carbon emissions 1950-2000, B) shows climate-sensitive malaria, malnutrition, diarrhoea, and flood-related fatalities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/global-health/project-pages/lancet1/ucl-lancet-climate-change.pdf">UCL/Lancet</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The great irony with climate change is that those countries that contributed least to the problem are those same countries that will be most affected.</p>
<p><strong>On a more positive note, are there any planetary boundaries that we are likely to stay in safe limits of?</strong></p>
<p>I think stratospheric ozone depletion looks under control. That was a great example of <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-30-years-of-protecting-the-ozone-layer-some-reasons-to-be-cheerful-31604">international coordination</a> and effective management of the commons.</p>
<p><strong>Why does the scientific community seem so afraid of geoengineering? Won’t there eventually come at point where that is our only choice?</strong></p>
<p>Our understanding of the Earth’s climate has increased tremendously over the past couple hundred of years. But we are not in any position to be able to say we have a sufficient understanding of it to be able to conduct global-scale climate alteration in the ways that we want. We’ve got ample evidence we can change the climate, we’ve been enthusiastically pulling all sorts of levers. But we cannot give any assurance that explicit attempts to manage the climate would not in fact lead us closer to disaster.</p>
<p>For example one of the concerns with solar management geoengineering is that it completely <a href="http://www.globaloceancommission.org/wp-content/uploads/GOC-paper02-climate-change.pdf">ignores ocean acidification</a>. That’s a good example of only looking at one element of the problem. These global challenges are very often closely linked and interact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The Conversation organised a public question-and-answer session on Reddit in which James Dyke, a lecturer in Complex System Simulation, discussed planetary boundaries and whether global industrialised…James Dyke, Lecturer in Complex Systems Simulation, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/198192013-11-06T03:05:49Z2013-11-06T03:05:49ZPlanetary boundaries, Limits to Growth and the climate debate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34476/original/jjmfrtj2-1383698351.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are many reasons mining interests might dismiss a publication which proposes planetary limits to exploitation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bert Kaufman</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Do the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) and the <a href="http://www.clubofrome.org/">Club of Rome</a> deserve a reputation as modern Chicken Littles who claimed repeatedly that the sky is falling? According to Hugh Morgan - former mining executive and president of climate sceptic organisation the <a href="http://www.lavoisier.com.au/index.php">Lavoisier Group</a> - they do.</p>
<p>The Australian Newspaper <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/ipcc-this-centurys-chicken-little/story-e6frg6xf-1226752383735">reported Morgan as saying</a> that the IPCC will be “remembered in the same way as the Club of Rome for its ‘Chicken Little’ approach”.</p>
<p>This deserves critical examination. Morgan’s claim is eminently debatable, if not highly dubious, for a number of reasons.</p>
<h2>Still stands up to scrutiny</h2>
<p>After four decades, the Club of Rome’s <a href="http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=326">Limits to Growth</a> actually stands up well to scrutiny. A modern version of “Chicken Little” hysteria it was not. </p>
<p>Vilified by countless critics, including Morgan, this innovative study provides a credible example of complex system modelling. Its scenarios highlight the intricate interdependencies between the economy and Earth’s resources. </p>
<p>This pioneering report remains useful; in fact, <a href="http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/569">researchers have found</a> “its conclusions are still surprisingly valid … it is time to revive the derailed discussion about economic growth and the environment.”</p>
<p>It is worth emphasising that the published study itself is quite different to the way it is described in criticism. Outspoken critics demonised it as simplistic doom mongering. <a href="http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf">According to CSIRO</a>, sustained, ill-informed attacks on the study claimed falsely “that The Limits to Growth predicted resources would be depleted and the world system would collapse by the end of the 20th Century”. The Australian perpetuates the mythology. </p>
<p>In this way, analysis of Limits to Growth may be a useful progenitor to the intense criticisms levelled at the IPCC. They too challenge powerful vested interests, including some in the mining and energy sectors.</p>
<p>Despite persistent attempts to discredit the study, retrospective analyses have found the scenarios remarkably accurate. While some analyses are from the <a href="http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=326">report’s authors</a> independent analysis by <a href="http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf">CSIRO</a> compared 30 years of reality with the model runs, and found the “business as usual” scenario matches pretty closley with what has occurred. </p>
<p>Graham Turner at CSRIO found the “observed historical data for 1970–2000 most closely matches … the ‘standard run’ scenario” and given the complexity of global feedbacks “it is instructive that the historical data compares so favorably with the model output.” </p>
<p>Finally, the book has had lasting influence. More than 12 million copies have sold in over 30 languages. Interest in the study is sustained because it is a forebear to the global consensus on sustainable development. <a href="http://www.stockholmresilience.org">Contemporary work</a> on planetary boundaries and negotiating a “safe operating space for humanity” builds on its intellectual foundations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34475/original/zjxxm2h7-1383698141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Used on the cover of Limits to Growth, this first photo of Earth from space inspired people to think about our planet’s limits.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Prediction, claim and counter claim</h2>
<p>The Limits to Growth did not attempt to make accurate predictions. It aimed to explore system behaviour when growth in human populations and resource use interacted. </p>
<p>Five scenarios were generated based on computer simulations. They explored interactions between:</p>
<ul>
<li>population</li>
<li>food production</li>
<li>industrial production</li>
<li>pollution</li>
<li>natural resources depletion.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Australian claims that “The Club of Rome used computer modelling to warn that the world would run out of commodities, including gold, mercury, silver, tin, zinc, petroleum, copper, lead, oil and natural gas, within 30 years.” </p>
<p>The Limits to Growth never made this claim. According to Turner’s CSIRO review, critics selectively use this claim of imminent resource depletion, but the depletion claims were falsely attributed to the study in a New York Times Sunday Book Review article. The Limits to Growth mentions this depletion, but as a statement made by the US Bureau of Mines, not something they derived from their analysis.</p>
<p>The Australian also claims that, “The book captured the public’s imagination by warning of the ‘sudden and uncontrollable collapse” of economic life". Turner refutes this stating it </p>
<blockquote>
<p>did not predict collapse of the global system … contrary to pervasive but incorrect claims. In fact, all … scenarios show the global economic system growing at the year 2000 … and nearly all … shows continuing growth … into the early decades of the 21st Century … Furthermore, the general trends and interactions involved in the “standard run” scenario resonate with contemporary environmental and economic pressures.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A thinly veiled attack on science?</h2>
<p>So if the sky is not falling, what can we conclude about the Limits to Growth? Is the comparison with the IPCC useful?</p>
<p>The book’s cover photo - the earth from space - is one of the most influential images of the 20th century. The book and this image became icons of an emerging awareness – summed up by the slogan “there is only one earth”.</p>
<p>Computational power and understanding of global systems have improved substantially since 1972. Awareness of the interdependencies of global systems continues to grow.</p>
<p>It seems that in Australia, a concerted compaign to discredit the IPCC is underway despite the strength and intensity of its scientific efforts. By denigrating the IPCC and comparing it with the Club of Rome, Morgan warns us to be wary of those who “claim to be able see the future”. </p>
<p>My response: be wary of powerful vested interests dengigrating science.</p>
<p>The IPCC and the Club of Rome demonstrate the value of science-based scenario generation. I see no viable alternative to the ongoing synthesis of science to provide us with understanding of how complex global systems interact. That these should help inform public debate and policy formulation seems self evident.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most salient lessons from the comparison should be the way important studies can be “spun” to irrelevance. </p>
<p>In their study, <a href="http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/569">The history of the Limits to Growth</a>, Peet, Nørgård, and Ragnarsdóttir ask “How was it possible to derail the… debate to the extent that the book and its message were essentially ignored (or, arguably, covered up) for decades?” </p>
<p>They answer that “a book that hints at the necessity of curbing economic growth is very unwelcome to those who have a large stake in the status quo”.</p>
<p>Morgan wants politicians to reread The Limits of Growth, and it’s an excellent suggestion. Despite the hype the book is fundamentally optimistic – it argues that sustained economic growth within planetary limits is possible, if desicive policy is implemented.</p>
<p>This book generated controversy since publication and its legacy remains contested. That it is still debated, demonstrates its relevance.</p>
<p>The Limits to Growth proved controversial, useful and insightful because it stimulated debate about how to live within the planetary boundaries. That is just what the IPCC is doing today. </p>
<p>Both ask us to think and act. Both are issuing profound warnings based on unprecedented global scientific cooperation and genuine concern for the future of this beautiful blue-green planet. Let us celebrate their scholarship!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Alexandra is the owner and managing director of Alexandra and Associates Pty Ltd - a consulting company that advises clients on natural resources management. Alexandra and Associates has received competitive R&D grants and consulting contracts from a wide range of government and business entities - none represent any conflict of interest.
</span></em></p>Do the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Club of Rome deserve a reputation as modern Chicken Littles who claimed repeatedly that the sky is falling? According to Hugh Morgan - former…Jason Alexandra, Honorary Fellow, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/125292013-02-28T03:57:14Z2013-02-28T03:57:14ZWorrying about global tipping points distracts from real planetary threats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/20757/original/75mz6ydn-1362021606.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C904%2C698&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Locally, tipping points are real, but it's unlikely the whole globe will go at once.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Truthout.org</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In a paper published today in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534713000335">Trends in Ecology and Evolution</a>, Barry Brook and colleagues argue against the idea of an ecological global-scale “tipping point”. Here, Professor Brook outlines the paper’s core argument, while Professor Corey Bradshaw (not an author on the study) explains what it means for conservation practice.</em></p>
<h2>Barry Brook</h2>
<p>We argue that at the global-scale, ecological “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/full/nature11018.html">tipping points</a>” and threshold-like “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html">planetary boundaries</a>” are improbable. Instead, shifts in the Earth’s biosphere follow a gradual, smooth pattern. This means that it might be impossible to define scientifically specific, critical levels of biodiversity loss or land-use change. This has important consequences for both science and policy.</p>
<p>Humans are causing changes in ecosystems across Earth to such a degree that there is now broad agreement that we live in an epoch of our own making: <a href="http://www.anthropocene.info">the Anthropocene</a>. But the question of just how these changes will play out — and especially whether we might be approaching a planetary tipping point with abrupt, global-scale consequences — has remained unsettled.</p>
<p>A tipping point occurs when an ecosystem attribute, such as species abundance or carbon sequestration, responds abruptly and possibly irreversibly to a human pressure, such as land-use or climate change. Many local- and regional-level ecosystems, such as lakes, <a href="http://phys.org/news/2011-10-forest-savanna-quickly.html">forests and grasslands</a>, behave this way. Recently however, there have been several efforts to define ecological tipping points at the global scale.</p>
<p>At a local scale, there are definitely <a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2012/10/18/when-sudden-dramatic-change-is-imminent-what-are-the-warning-signs/">warning signs that an ecosystem is about to “tip”</a>. For the terrestrial biosphere, tipping points might be expected if ecosystems across Earth respond in similar ways to human pressures and these pressures are uniform, or if there are strong connections between continents that allow for rapid diffusion of impacts across the planet.</p>
<p>These criteria are, however, unlikely to be met in the real world. </p>
<p>First, ecosystems on different continents are not strongly connected. Organisms are limited in their movement by oceans and mountain ranges, as well as by climatic factors, and while ecosystem change in one region can affect the global circulation of, for example, greenhouse gases, this signal is likely to be weak in comparison with inputs from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. </p>
<p>Second, the responses of ecosystems to human pressures like climate change or land-use change depend on local circumstances and will therefore differ between locations. From a planetary perspective, this diversity in ecosystem responses creates an essentially gradual pattern of change, without any identifiable tipping points.</p>
<p>This puts into question attempts to define critical levels of land-use change or biodiversity loss scientifically.</p>
<p>Why does this matter? Well, one concern we have is that an undue focus on planetary tipping points may distract from the vast ecological transformations that have already occurred.</p>
<p>After all, as much as four-fifths of the biosphere is today characterised by ecosystems that locally, over the span of centuries and millennia, have undergone <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/past-issues/issue-2/the-planet-of-no-return/">human-driven regime shifts</a> of one or more kinds. </p>
<p>Recognising this reality and seeking appropriate conservation efforts at local and regional levels might be a more fruitful way forward for ecology and global change science.</p>
<h2>Corey Bradshaw</h2>
<p>Let’s not get too distracted by the title of the this article - Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points? - or the potential for a false controversy. It’s important to be clear that the planet is indeed ill, and it’s largely due to us. Species are going extinct faster than they would have otherwise. The planet’s climate system is being severely disrupted; so is the carbon cycle. Ecosystem services are on the decline.</p>
<p>But - and it’s a big “but” - we have to be wary of claiming the end of the world as we know it, or people will shut down and continue blindly with their growth and consumption obsession. We as scientists also have to be extremely careful not to pull concepts and numbers out of thin air without empirical support.</p>
<p>Specifically, I’m referring to the latest “craze” in environmental science writing - the idea of “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/full/nature11018.html">planetary tipping points</a>” and the related “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html">planetary boundaries</a>”. </p>
<p>It’s really the stuff of Hollywood disaster blockbusters - the world suddenly shifts into a new “state” where some major aspect of how the world functions does an immediate about-face.</p>
<p>Don’t get me wrong: there are plenty of localised examples of such tipping points, often characterised by something we call “hysteresis”. Brook defines <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.01.016">hysterisis as</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a situation where the current state of an ecosystem is dependent not only on its environment but also on its history, with the return path to the original state being very different from the original development that led to the altered state. Also, at some range of the driver, there can exist two or more alternative states</p>
</blockquote>
<p>and “tipping point” as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the critical point at which strong nonlinearities appear in the relationship between ecosystem attributes and drivers; once a tipping point threshold is crossed, the change to a new state is typically rapid and might be irreversible or exhibit hysteresis.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some of these examples include state shifts that have happened (or mostly likely will) to the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL028017/abstract">cryosphere</a>, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6329/abs/351729a0.html">ocean thermohaline circulation</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL900494/abstract">atmospheric circulation</a>, and <a href="http://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/abstract/S0169-5347(08)00166-3">marine ecosystems</a>, and there are many other fine-scale examples of ecological systems shifting to new (apparently) stable states. </p>
<p>However, claiming that we are approaching a major planetary boundary for our ecosystems (including human society), where we witness such transitions simultaneously across the globe, is simply not upheld by evidence.</p>
<p>Regional tipping points are unlikely to translate into planet-wide state shifts. The main reason is that our ecosystems aren’t that connected at global scales.</p>
<p>The paper provides a framework against which one can test the existence or probability of a planetary tipping point for any particular ecosystem function or state. To date, the application of the idea has floundered because of a lack of specified criteria that would allow the terrestrial biosphere to “tip”. From a more sociological viewpoint, the claim of imminent shift to some worse state also risks alienating people from addressing the real problems (foxes), or as Brook and colleagues summarise:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>framing global change in the dichotomous terms implied by the notion of a global tipping point could lead to complacency on the “safe” side of the point and fatalism about catastrophic or irrevocable effects on the other.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, let’s be empirical about these sorts of politically charged statements instead of crying “Wolf!” while the hordes of foxes steal most of the flock.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry W. Brook and Corey J.A. Bradshaw receive funding from the Australian Research Council (Discovery, Linkage and Future Fellowship grants).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Corey Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>In a paper published today in Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Barry Brook and colleagues argue against the idea of an ecological global-scale “tipping point”. Here, Professor Brook outlines the paper’s…Barry W. Brook, Professor of Climate Science, ARC Future Fellow, University of AdelaideCorey J. A. Bradshaw, Professor and Director of Ecological Modelling, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.