tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/power-generation-407/articlesPower generation – The Conversation2024-01-09T14:03:52Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176062024-01-09T14:03:52Z2024-01-09T14:03:52ZGhana’s electricity crisis is holding the country back - how it got here<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567865/original/file-20240104-21-yyooez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Akosombo Dam is an important source of power in Ghana.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jbdodane/10021680456">jbdodane/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For well over a decade Ghana was exalted as one of the most promising and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/ghana-is-set-to-be-the-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-this-year-according-to-the-imf/">fastest growing</a> economies on the continent. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/africa/ghana-plunged-into-darkness-amid-country-economic-woes/index.html">recent reports</a> of the country’s steep <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2023/ghanas-second-quarter-economic-growth-dips-vs-revised-first-quarter/">economic dip</a>, high <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-11/ghana-inflation-hits-record-54-1-as-food-costs-surge">inflation</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67236078">rolling blackouts</a>, popularly referred to as “dumsor”, suggest the era of inconsistent electricity between 2012 and 2016 is back. </p>
<p>The west African nation is experiencing power rationing and electricity cuts. It has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67236078">lost 10%</a> of its total electricity generation capacity. Not only is the supply of clean energy insufficient in Ghana: access is also uneven. The rural poor rely on other forms of energy such as firewood or biomass to meet their needs. Biomass accounts for over <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666052022000152">46%</a> of energy use in Ghana’s rural areas. </p>
<p>The correlation between energy, economic growth and development is widely recognised. The ability of energy to power economies is also well known. </p>
<p>The gaps in electricity delivery in a nation typically lauded for its economic success and political stability are at odds with energy abundance that I note in <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-60122-9">my book</a> on Ghana’s energy politics. </p>
<p>This latest crisis could upend Ghana’s previously notable economic gains. </p>
<p>The current energy paralysis is particularly worrying for two reasons. Ghana is frequently touted as a hub for foreign investment and tourism. Neither of these can flourish without energy. Secondly, it could prompt Ghanaians to leave the country and discourage people in the diaspora from returning. </p>
<h2>Some history</h2>
<p>Understanding Ghana’s electricity conundrum requires a look at past policies. In less than a decade following independence in 1957, the country could boast of having one of the continent’s largest dams and hydroelectric projects, the Akosombo and Volta River Project. </p>
<p>Political upheaval in the following decades destroyed the vision of progress. A rapid succession of regimes and the ravages of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s and 1990s challenged the ability of Ghana to clean up decrepit energy institutions. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-to-be-learnt-from-ghanas-excess-electricity-shambles-121257">Lessons to be learnt from Ghana's excess electricity shambles</a>
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<p>Poor energy supply and demand chain dynamics or forecasting produced deeply disparate outcomes. Energy institutions did not adequately capture heightened demand in urban and rural areas. This happened amid international financial institutional pressure to liberalise the energy sector as a condition for support. Utility sector reform inadvertently made it harder to supply energy to those who needed it the most. Added to this were insufficient funds and budgetary constraints which limited generation and transmission capacity. </p>
<h2>Energy capacity</h2>
<p>In 2019, an International Energy Association <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/ghana-energy-outlook">report</a> noted that half of Ghana’s electricity came from hydropower, 30% from domestically produced gas and 23% from oil. </p>
<p>Ghana’s hydro-wealth includes an installed capacity of 1,580 megawatts of energy from three dams: Akosombo, Kpong and Bui, which account for roughly 54% of its total electricity generating capacity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-bui-dam-set-up-chinas-future-engagement-strategy-with-ghana-164970">How the Bui Dam set up China's future engagement strategy with Ghana</a>
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<p>The completion of the Bui Dam by Chinese contractors <a href="https://www.water-technology.net/projects/bui-dam-hydro-power-ghana/">in 2013</a> was intended to offset poor access. Additional thermal plants constructed since 2017 should have improved disparities in electricity delivery. <a href="https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/hd/about/facilities/thermal-e.html">Thermal plants</a> draw from steam power that is generated by burning oil, liquid natural gas and coal.</p>
<h2>The rural poor</h2>
<p>But <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-60122-9">less than 60% of the population</a> has access to electricity. This energy poverty has been acute since the 1990s. It’s especially alarming for a country that boasts a resource of <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/15-Billion-Barrels-Of-Oil-Discovered-Offshore-Ghana.html">a billion barrels of offshore oil</a>. </p>
<p>The connections between rural development and electrification were noted in a Ministry of Energy <a href="https://www.greenpolicyplatform.org/sites/default/files/downloads/policy-database/GHANA%20%20National%20Energy%20Policy.pdf">report</a> over a decade ago.</p>
<p>In my view, the use of electricity as a tool for political parties is incompatible with addressing provision to the rural poor. Around <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1245342/number-of-people-living-in-extreme-poverty-in-ghana-by-area/#:%7E:text=In%202023%2C%20around%202.99%20million,were%20located%20in%20urban%20areas.">2.99 million people</a> in Ghana live in extreme poverty, the majority in rural areas. </p>
<p>The country’s energy “futures” appear tethered to donor-driven aid and investment. The political wherewithal or impetus to develop a framework that meets differing energy needs remains absent, as I demonstrate in my work. </p>
<h2>Other implications</h2>
<p>Ghanaians and international observers are asking what is to be done. Regional power sharing arrangements like the <a href="https://www.ecowapp.org/en/content/creation-wapp">West Africa Power Pool</a>, intended to boost long term energy security, have yielded little thus far. </p>
<p>In my view, a key step is to ask what kind of sustainable energy future the country wants.</p>
<p>Calling for donor-led and international financial assistance is not the answer. It is time to change expectations about grid connection, the preferred way of electricity delivery in Ghana, as previous <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629619300647?casa_token=kh1WaQ8Tbq0AAAAA:Bp4xLAyaOjH1s-m8te2e9gG7i1rxa00vTHO1c2u5B4SASGLYy3EVbhLIpegNPmNAz-fj6VaEPQk">studies have shown</a>. </p>
<p>For Ghana, harnessing renewable energies that are sustainable, dependable and affordable, especially for the rural poor, is a key step. </p>
<p>Another strategy is to encourage public dialogue about the country’s energy futures.</p>
<p>Ghana must deploy a just and inclusive energy framework that attends to its rural populations just as much as its urbanites.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naaborle Sackeyfio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghana’s power generation mix is still not meeting national needs.Naaborle Sackeyfio, Associate Professor of Global and Intercultural Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138762023-10-18T00:49:51Z2023-10-18T00:49:51ZClimate change will affect solar power and grid stability across Australia – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554431/original/file-20231017-15-sromml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=821%2C0%2C4486%2C2393&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/huge-solar-power-plant-panels-renewable-2142285649">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Renewable electricity generation is at record levels in Australia. Renewables produced <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/Clean-Energy-Australia-Report-2023.pdf">36% of the nation’s electricity</a> in 2022. Solar photovoltaics (PV) had the highest renewable contribution (about 15%) and are expected to keep growing in coming years. </p>
<p>But the increase in the share of grid-connected renewables adds to the challenge of maintaining a stable electricity grid, given the impact of weather conditions on their output. </p>
<p>An increasingly important question is what impact will climate change have on weather-induced inconsistencies in solar generation? <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">Our newly published research</a> is the first to quantify climate change’s impact on solar resource reliability in Australia over the next century.</p>
<p>We find that as the climate warms, in some regions of Australia there will be more weather-induced variability than in others. In particular, the eastern parts of Australia can expect fewer intermittent or lull periods of solar power generation by the end of the century. By contrast, some regions in the west will face prolonged periods of minimum-to-no power generation in the future. </p>
<p>Despite the changing climate, the good news is the future of solar power looks promising in most of Australia. Our research suggests solar resource reliability will increase in the regions where we have our existing solar farms. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-successful-energy-transition-depends-on-managing-when-people-use-power-so-how-do-we-make-demand-more-flexible-213079">A successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?</a>
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<h2>How does solar growth affect grid stability?</h2>
<p>The grid distributes electricity generated from coal and gas-fired power stations, large solar and wind farms, rooftop solar, hydropower and so on. </p>
<p>Unlike coal or gas-fired stations, the power renewables generate is not constant. It varies depending on the local weather. For example, the amount of solar power generated depends on the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">amount of irradiance</a> (intensity of sunlight) and, most importantly, cloud cover at that location. </p>
<p>So, any changes in the weather affect the amount of energy supplied to the grid. These variable outputs can not only cause an imbalance between electricity supply and demand, but also lead to voltage fluctuations and blackouts. </p>
<p>Electrical equipment is designed to function at a specific frequency and voltage. If the voltage exceeds the threshold it can damage the equipment. At a larger scale, voltage changes or frequency instability can trigger safety mechanisms that take parts of the grid offline, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-38566-z">leading to blackouts</a>.</p>
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<h2>How does climate change affect solar output?</h2>
<p>Using regional climate model projections, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">our results</a> predict that under a higher emissions scenario known as <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">RCP8.5</a>, often described as “business as usual”, the availability of solar resources will increase in most of Australia by up to 1% by 2099. We predict minor decreases of 0.25–0.5% near the west.</p>
<p>Similarly, the duration of extractable solar power (called “episode lengths”) will increase in the east by up to 30 minutes per year. We predict minor decreases in the west. This means the resource will be more reliable in the east and we can expect a more stable electricity supply from solar PV generation. This doesn’t take into account higher temperatures, which can <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">decrease the PV yield</a>.</p>
<p>We also predict the times with no-to-minimum power generation (called “lulls”) will reduce in eastern Australia by about 25 minutes per year. We expect minor increases in lulls in the west. These changes are mainly due to an increase in the number of clear-sky days in the east. </p>
<h2>A less sunny outlook for world’s largest solar farm</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.suncable.energy/our-projects">Sun Cable</a> is developing the largest solar farm in the world in the Northern Territory. It will have a generation capacity of at least 14 gigawatts. Sun Cable plans to supply electricity to Darwin and Singapore.</p>
<p>Based on our simulations, we predict a 2% reduction in radiation at the Sun Cable solar farm by 2099. This could lead to a loss of about 280 megawatts in its total generation capacity by then. </p>
<p>We also predict reduced episode lengths for the Sun Cable farm. This points to shorter periods of reliable power output. Likewise, the power generated is predicted to be highly variable throughout the day due to an increase in lull periods.</p>
<p>Sun Cable will likely need to consider having energy storage systems and strategies to control voltage fluctuations to tackle intermittency. </p>
<h2>What else does Australia need to consider?</h2>
<p>The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">report</a> stresses the urgent need to prepare for extreme climate change and greatly reduce carbon emissions. One of the most efficient ways to do this is to develop more grid-connected renewable energy technologies world-wide. </p>
<p>Australia has an ambitious <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/advocacy-initiatives/renewable-energy-target">renewable energy target</a>, and we expect more grid-connected solar farms in the future. This means grid operators and distributors will have to manage future periods of high demand and variable supply. </p>
<p>One of the most efficient solutions is to use storage facilities to soak up energy at times of high output. These can then supply energy when renewable output stops or is intermittent. Batteries are an obvious choice, and Australia will have <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/top-five-energy-storage-projects-in-australia/">several big battery storage plants</a> by 2025. </p>
<p>Before setting up large-scale solar plants, we should assess the impacts of climate change using a range of climate models and different future scenarios to minimise future risks. We should also consider installing hybrid renewable energy plants, such as solar and wind at the same site. This will help optimise the energy mix to reduce intermittency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shukla Poddar is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
</span></em></p>Solar power generation varies greatly depending on the weather. A new study suggests in some parts of Australia, solar has a bright future.Shukla Poddar, Senior Research Fellow, School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1823142022-05-17T12:26:27Z2022-05-17T12:26:27ZHydropower’s future is clouded by droughts, floods and climate change – it’s also essential to the US electric grid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463460/original/file-20220516-19-9c7f8x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C5503%2C3696&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lake Powell's water level has been falling amid a two-decade drought. The white 'bathtub ring' on the canyon walls marks the decline.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-the-glen-canyon-dam-at-lake-powell-on-march-27-2022-news-photo/1388101365?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The water in Lake Powell, one of the nation’s largest reservoirs, has fallen so low amid the Western drought that federal officials are <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html">resorting to emergency measures</a> to avoid shutting down hydroelectric power at the Glen Canyon Dam.</p>
<p>The Arizona dam, which provides electricity to <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/crsp/gc/">seven states</a>, isn’t the only U.S. hydropower plant in trouble.</p>
<p>The iconic Hoover Dam, also on the Colorado River, has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-science-business-droughts-dams-3ca7b669ff6d18b4ba243ffb45c49230">reduced its water flow and power production</a>. California shut down a hydropower plant at the Oroville Dam for five months because of low water levels in 2021, and officials have <a href="https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/04/21/newsom-addresses-state-response-to-climate-drought-at-oroville-dam-2/">warned the same thing could happen</a> in 2022.</p>
<p>In the Northeast, a different kind of climate change problem has affected hydropower dams – too much rainfall all at once.</p>
<p>The United States has over 2,100 operational <a href="https://nid.usace.army.mil/#/dams/search/sy=@primaryPurposeId:(6)&viewType=map&resultsType=dams&advanced=false&hideList=false&eventSystem=false">hydroelectric dams</a>, with locations in nearly every state. They play essential roles in their regional power grids. But most were built in the past century under a different climate than they face today.</p>
<p>As global temperatures rise and the climate continues to change, competition for water will increase, and the way hydropower supply is managed within regions and across the power grid in the U.S. will have to evolve. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HoSryoQAAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> <a href="https://www.fewslab.org">study</a> the nation’s hydropower production at a systems level as engineers. Here are three key things to understand about one of the nation’s oldest sources of renewable energy in a changing climate. </p>
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<h2>Hydropower can do things other power plants can’t</h2>
<p>Hydropower contributes <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hydropower/">6% to 7% of all power generation</a> in the U.S., but it is a crucial resource for managing the U.S. electric grids.</p>
<p>Because it can quickly be turned on and off, hydroelectric power can help <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2021/01/f82/us-hydropower-market-report-full-2021.pdf">control minute-to-minute supply and demand changes</a>. It can also help power grids <a href="https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-30554.pdf">quickly bounce back</a> when blackouts occur. Hydropower makes up about 40% of U.S. electric grid facilities that can be started without an additional power supply during a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/05/f62/Hydro-Black-Start_May2019.pdf">blackout</a>, in part because the fuel needed to generate power is simply the water held in the reservoir behind the turbine.</p>
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<span class="caption">Tourists look at an old turbine that was replaced at the Glen Canyon Dam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LakePowellHydropower/22ef0dc7cb274aa5833ccbe041fb0dcd/photo">AP Photo/Felicia Fonseca</a></span>
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<p>In addition, it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-get-hyped-but-pumped-hydro-provides-the-vast-majority-of-long-term-energy-storage-essential-for-renewable-power-heres-how-it-works-174446">serve as a giant battery</a> for the grid. The U.S. has over 40 pumped hydropower plants, which pump water uphill into a reservoir and later send it through turbines to generate electricity as needed.</p>
<p>So, while hydroelectricity represents a small portion of generation, these dams are integral to keeping the U.S. power supply flowing.</p>
<h2>Climate change affects hydropower in different ways in different regions</h2>
<p>Globally, drought has already decreased hydropower <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124021">generation</a>. How <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.757">climate change affects hydropower</a> in the U.S. going forward will depend in large part on each plants’ location.</p>
<p>In areas where melting snow affects the river flow, hydropower potential is expected to increase in winter, when more snow falls as rain, but then decrease in summer when less snowpack is left to become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.757">meltwater</a>. This pattern is expected to occur in much of the western U.S., along with worsening multiyear droughts that could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.757">decrease some hydropower production</a>, depending on the how much <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.757">storage capacity</a> the reservoir has.</p>
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<p>The Northeast has a different challenge. There, extreme precipitation that can cause flooding is <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">expected to increase</a>. More rain can increase power generation potential, and there are <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/downloads/hydropower-vision-report-full-report">discussions about retrofitting more existing dams</a> to produce hydropower. But since many dams there are also used for flood control, the opportunity to produce extra <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.131">energy</a> from that increasing rainfall could be lost if water is released through an overflow channel. </p>
<p>In the southern U.S., <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">decreasing precipitation and intensified drought</a> are expected, which will likely result in decreased hydropower production.</p>
<h2>Some grid operators face bigger challenges</h2>
<p>The effect these changes have on the nation’s power grid will depend on how each part of the grid is managed. </p>
<p>Agencies known as balancing authorities manage their region’s electricity supply and demand in real time.</p>
<p>The largest balancing authority in terms of hydroelectric generation is the Bonneville Power Administration in the Northwest. It coordinates around 83,000 megawatt-hours of electricity annually across 59 dams, primarily in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. The Grand Coulee Dam complex alone can produce enough power for <a href="https://www.bpa.gov/about/newsroom/news-articles/20220302-generators-like-new-again-at-nations-largest-hydroelectric-producer">1.8 million homes</a>.</p>
<p>Much of this area <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northwest">shares a similar climate and will experience climate change</a> in much the same way in the future. That means that a regional drought or snowless year could hit many of the Bonneville Power Administration’s hydropower producers at the same time. Researchers have found that this region’s climate impacts on hydropower <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4">present both a risk and opportunity</a> for grid operators by increasing summer management challenges but also lowering winter electricity shortfalls. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463338/original/file-20220516-21-bzv0kh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Balancing authorities and the number of hydropower plants in each.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lauren Dennis</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Midwest, it’s a different story. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, has 176 hydropower plants across an area 50% larger than that of Bonneville, from northern Minnesota to Louisiana. </p>
<p>Since its hydropower plants are more likely to experience different climates and regional effects at different times, MISO and similarly broad operators have the capability to balance out hydropower deficits in one area with generation in other areas.</p>
<p>Understanding these regional climate effects is increasingly essential for power supply planning and protecting grid security as balancing authorities work together to keep the lights on.</p>
<h2>More change is coming</h2>
<p>Climate change is not the only factor that will affect hydropower’s future. Competing demands <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5f3f">already influence</a> whether water is allocated for electricity generation or other uses such as irrigation and drinking.</p>
<p>Laws and water allocation also shift over time and change how water is managed through reservoirs, affecting hydroelectricity. The increase in renewable energy and the potential to use some dams and reservoirs for energy storage might also change the equation.</p>
<p>The importance of hydropower across the U.S. power grid means most dams are likely here to stay, but climate change will change how these plants are used and managed.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated May 18, 2022, to clarify that Bonneville Power Administration coordinates power from 59 dams.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlin Grady is affiliated with the American Society of Civil Engineers and the American Geophysical Union. She receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Dennis is affiliated with the American Society of Civil Engineers and the American Geophysical Union. She receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Climate change is affecting hydropower in different ways across the country.Caitlin Grady, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Research Associate in the Rock Ethics Institute, Penn StateLauren Dennis, Ph.D. Student in Civil Engineering and Climate Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709682022-01-17T14:55:41Z2022-01-17T14:55:41ZWhy merging Uganda’s electricity sector agencies is a bad idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440608/original/file-20220113-13-4s4elr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When multiple electricity companies compete for consumers, there is pressure to keep costs low and to improve service quality. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Early in 2021, the government of Uganda <a href="https://www.newvision.co.ug/articledetails/101131">approved</a> a two-year plan to streamline state-run agencies for greater efficiency. The first phase of the merger targeted 77 agencies under 18 ministries. By the time parliament <a href="https://parliamentwatch.ug/news-amp-updates/parliament-to-form-ad-hoc-committee-over-merger-of-government-agencies/">put the programme on hold</a> months later, 69 of these agencies had been merged.</p>
<p>Parliament stepped in because the government sidestepped the law and could face court challenges. But the programme is still on the cards once key issues are resolved. These include amendments to laws governing energy agencies and provision of financial compensation to affected parties and staff. </p>
<p>The push to reorganise state-owned enterprises can be traced back to a 2017 review. A resulting government <a href="https://publicservice.go.ug/download/report-on-comprehensive-review-and-restructuring-of-government-ministries-2016/">report</a> recommended “blanket” mergers across all ministries, departments and agencies. The aim was to save costs and deal with </p>
<blockquote>
<p>jurisdictional ambiguities, inefficiencies, obscurity in accountability, performance gaps, inadequate manpower and wastage of resources. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The report gave three reasons for merging entities in the energy sector. One was to align policy and laws. Another was to focus on solar energy rather than costly hydro-power projects. The third was to look at using geothermal energy. </p>
<p>Uganda’s Public Service Ministry recommends merging three separate companies charged with electricity <a href="https://www.uegcl.com/">generation</a>, <a href="https://uetcl.go.ug/">transmission</a> and <a href="https://www.uedcl.co.ug/">distribution</a> into one state owned company. A fourth, the Rural Electrification Agency, would be placed directly under the Ministry of Energy. </p>
<p>This would set the country back 20 years to the days of a single entity, the Uganda Electricity Board. Back then, the energy sector was marred by <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/358821468760763653/pdf/multi-page.pdf">political interference</a> in tariff-setting, investment decisions and personnel. The sector was also dogged by huge unpaid bills. Put simply, the sole utility was dysfunctional, ailing, and insolvent. </p>
<p>The board was broken up in 2001. The new structure sought to remove state subsidies and attract private investment. This objective has largely been achieved. </p>
<p>Merging electricity agencies again now will likely resurrect past inefficiencies. It will also undo gains realised since 2001. The gains include reduced risk for prospective investors in generation, transmission and distribution.</p>
<p>I have studied Uganda’s energy sector for the past 10 years. This included research for my recently completed PhD <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/profile/133/peter-twesigye">research</a> under the <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/powerfutureslab/">Power Futures Lab</a>. My research sought to understand structural, governance and regulatory incentives for improved electricity utilities in East Africa. </p>
<p>My view is that the merger of electricity sector agencies in Uganda should be stopped. This is because it could increase regulatory and investment risks. Instead, Uganda should focus on improving the management of state enterprises and incentives for greater efficiencies.</p>
<h2>The case for unbundling</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32335/9781464814426.pdf?sequence=10&isAllowed=y">rationale for separating market segments</a> – or unbundling – is that some parts of the electricity value chain are open to competition. This is true of electricity generation. However, transmission and distribution tend to be a natural monopoly. </p>
<p>The retail aspect of distribution is also potentially competitive. That is, traders or sellers of electricity may compete for customers.</p>
<p>Separating the market segments guards against cross-subsidisation between competing and regulated businesses. It also <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32335/9781464814426.pdf?sequence=10&isAllowed=y">avoids conflicts of interest</a>, which can arise when a single utility has more than one function. For example, a transmission company that also generates power could give itself access to the grid ahead of competing producers.</p>
<p>Unbundling also allows for greater competition as new players are allowed into the market. It can improve efficiency, innovation and management of risks. When companies compete for consumers, there is <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28853/WPS8235.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y">pressure to keep costs low and improve service quality</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/6564/wps4542.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">Evidence also shows</a> that managers in integrated state-owned enterprises might focus on what politicians want, rather than on company efficiency. Unbundling therefore helps to limit political influence.</p>
<p>New opportunities in the energy sector are underpinned by low-cost renewables and rapid technological innovation. To develop the sector, Uganda needs both public and private sector capital. Combining agencies could put investors off from financing infrastructure expansion. </p>
<h2>Improvements after unbundling</h2>
<p>An analysis of <a href="https://www.umeme.co.ug/umeme_api/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Umeme_Annual_Report_2020_Final.pdf">current data</a> from Uganda’s electricity distribution company – against <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/358821468760763653/pdf/multi-page.pdf">general reports</a> from the previous era – reveals that Uganda’s power sector is in much better shape than before. There is a significant increase in generation capacity, the number of power producers, financial viability, consumer connections and relative reliability. </p>
<p>Structural and governance reforms provided space for market-oriented ownership, management, regulation and incentives. This helped to improve the adequacy, efficiency and financial sustainability of supply. A recent World Bank <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24869/WPS7788.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y">study</a> identified Uganda’s electricity sector as one of only two in Africa – along with Seychelles – with financially viable distribution utilities. This is key in attracting investors. </p>
<p>Progress in electricity access, reliability and affordability is disappointing, though. This can be explained by the poor state of infrastructure of the 1980s and 1990s due to civil wars. Added to this are policy trade-offs made in the 2000s to attract investment in generation expansion and achieve financial viability. </p>
<p>Uganda has subsequently been able to <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/Uganda_Auction_Report.pdf">attract</a> the second highest number of independent power producers (38) in sub-Saharan Africa. It is also on a stable path to ensuring energy security, with current installed capacity of 1,237MW and peak demand of 724MW. </p>
<p>This is partly because of increased transparency, competition and financial viability – which encouraged independent power producers such as the 250MW Bujjagali and over 16 <a href="https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/EEG_Energy_Insight_UCT_Uganda.pdf">renewable power projects</a>. </p>
<p>Gaps remain in electrification rates and supply reliability. But these are issues that require targeted policy solutions and incentives rather than structural rebuilding. Access to electricity is a social objective that requires a social policy. It can only be funded using a blend of public subsidies and innovative private funding. </p>
<p>The global power sector is experiencing a new wave of reforms. Innovations in disruptive technology and business models are making it possible to offer clean, low-cost energy. At such a time, merging or re-bundling energy agencies would be disastrous. It would dissuade private investment in the sector, the backbone of an economy aspiring to reach lower middle-income status.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Twesigye owns shares in Umeme Ltd but my analysis is not influenced by this, it is sector wide, and not limited to one distribution company. </span></em></p>A decision to merge energy sector agencies could depress investors’ appetite to finance infrastructure expansion.Peter Twesigye, Research Lead: Power Market Reforms and Regulation, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1583562021-04-14T14:20:20Z2021-04-14T14:20:20ZCOVID-19 lockdowns improved air quality in some cities, shedding light on how to curb pollution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394641/original/file-20210412-23-9oaf0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C96%2C6302%2C4030&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reduced traffic during lockdowns led to decreases in air pollution in many major cities in Europe. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries imposed drastic measures that curtailed economic activity. Schools and shops closed, air travel was banned and some cities saw full lockdowns. </p>
<p>While these measures have caused economic hardship, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abee4d">our study shows that they have also dramatically improved air quality</a>. Air pollution in urban areas declined by up to 45 per cent during lockdown, with air quality improvements persisting even after lockdown measures were lifted.</p>
<p>Drawing on our expertise in environmental economics and economic policy, the novel findings in this study highlight the potential for smart environmental policies to build back better by focusing on a sustainable economy.</p>
<h2>Unequal environmental effects of lockdowns</h2>
<p>Air pollution is a major threat to human health. It is directly related to economic activities such as transportation, power generation, industry, agriculture and domestic energy use for heating and cooking. </p>
<p>While most lockdowns have directly and substantially reduced transportation and industrial activity, the impact of lockdowns on agriculture, domestic energy use and power generation are often indirect and more complex. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15371">main source of air pollution varies across regions and is key to understanding the different environmental impacts of lockdowns across the world</a>. While transportation and industrial activities are the main sources of pollution in urban areas of developed countries, including North America and Europe, residential energy use, agriculture and power generation are among the dominant sources of air pollution in many urban areas of Asia, South America and Africa. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman enjoys the sun on her balcony as the Eiffel Tower is clearly seen in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=131%2C71%2C3861%2C2302&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394637/original/file-20210412-17-8ph07v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Air pollution fell in Paris in response to lockdown measures in April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michel Euler))</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our study showed that, while most areas experienced a reduction in air pollution in response to lockdown measures, other areas saw only small improvements or even a deterioration in air quality. Those areas experiencing air quality improvements had industry or transportation as the main pollution source. Areas with no changes or air quality deterioration were often the same regions where the dominant pollution sources include agriculture, residential biomass burning or power generation, including Greece, Japan and Colombia.</p>
<p>These findings highlight the complexity of the relationship between the economy and the environment. The conventional wisdom is that economic activity is bad for the environment. While we do uncover and confirm this negative relationship, we also find areas where the environment is resilient to economic activity. </p>
<h2>Building back better: A sustainable economy</h2>
<p>Previous research on economic development shows that the composition of economies changes during the process of economic growth, <a href="http://www.public.asu.edu/%7Ebherrend/Published%20Papers/Handbook%202013.pdf">often from agricultural to industrial and then to service dominated economies</a>. The environmental impact of economic development can therefore be positive when the shift to cleaner production overcompensates the environmental damage from increased production.</p>
<p>Our results on the global impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on air quality suggest that such relationships may also exist in the short-term, when people respond to COVID restrictions by switching to other more highly polluting activities, such as increased pollution from heating, that are less affected by lockdowns.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-better-canada-after-covid-19-launch-a-fossil-free-future-140691">How to build a better Canada after COVID-19: Launch a fossil-free future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Looking forward, our results suggest that policies to improve air quality have to take these diverse responses to regulation into account. Regulating only some activities can lead to worse environmental outcomes if economic activity shifts to more polluting actions. </p>
<p>A better policy response, confirmed by our results, should involve incentives that shift economies towards cleaner production and consumption of goods and services. Market-based policies such as cap-and-trade systems or taxes on polluting activities do exactly this. </p>
<p>By creating a cost to pollution through taxes or quota prices, these policies incentivize innovation and investment in green technologies. Our findings, in tandem with the <a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/pandp.20201081">broad lessons</a> from <a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/pol.20170144">the experience of carbon taxes</a> and cap-and-trade systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, can be used to inform smart environmental policy design.</p>
<p>Although COVID-19 itself, and the associated containment measures, have had tragic consequences for societies, it also serves as an unprecedented natural experiment that helps us to better understand the relationship between economic activity and the environment. Our study provides crucial lessons for building back better, especially when considering a sustainable economy in a post-COVID world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While most areas experienced a reduction in air pollution in response to lockdown measures, other areas saw only small improvements or even an air quality deterioration.Frederik Noack, Assistant Professor, environmental economics, University of British ColumbiaDominic Rohner, Professor of Economics, Université de LausanneRaahil Madhok, PhD Candidate, Food & Resource Economics Group, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478882020-10-14T16:43:07Z2020-10-14T16:43:07ZToward the end of SF₆, the most powerful greenhouse gas?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362729/original/file-20201009-17-4fd5v9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C132%2C4415%2C2802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Intervention on a medium-voltage circuit breaker, an electrical switchgear using SF6 gas. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electrical-transmission towers and the cables are part of the landscape of industrialized countries. Less visible but just as important are switchgear devices that protect electrical equipment. But did you know that many of these devices – widely used in electric-utility transmission and distribution systems as well as commercial and industrial facilities – integrate the most powerful greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride (SF<sub>6</sub>)? Luckily, leakage rates are low and accidents extremely rare.</p>
<p>The sheer amount of SF<sub>6</sub> used in the medium-voltage (MV) and high-voltage (HV) sectors nevertheless raises environmental concerns. This is especially the case as ongoing network extensions and the integration of renewable energy installations are increasing the banked SF<sub>6</sub> volume.</p>
<p>Are there any eco-friendly and efficient alternatives? Will regulations lead to a decrease in the use of SF<sub>6</sub> in the near future?</p>
<p>To answer these questions, we use results from our recent <a href="https://www.iee.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/iee/energiesystemtechnik/de/Dokumente/Projekte/f-gas-free/sf6_report_gem_final2.pdf">empirical study on the environmental and socio-economic impact of SF<sub>6</sub> and its alternatives</a>. Our study focuses on the MV sector where alternative technologies are more advanced and expected to gain ground faster than in the HV sector.</p>
<h2>The most powerful greenhouse gas</h2>
<p>With a global warming impact that is 23,500 times higher compared to CO<sub>2</sub> and an atmospheric lifetime of 3,200 years, SF<sub>6</sub> is the most harmful known greenhouse gas. Not surprisingly, the Kyoto Protocol lists SF<sub>6</sub> as one of the six greenhouse gases that are restricted for use (together with CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, HFC and PFC).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360886/original/file-20200930-16-1cmud24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warming power for the different greenhouse gases over a period of 100 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-warming-potential-of-greenhouse-gases-over-100-year-timescale-gwp">GWP100 -- IPCC 2014</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, due to its excellent technical properties, SF<sub>6</sub> has been increasingly used as an insulating and switching medium in HV and MV sectors since the 1950s. One of its main advantages is that it allows for more compact installations, in particular compared to air-insulated switchgear. This is an especially important criterion in urban areas where space is limited.</p>
<p>Switchgear is a general term covering switching devices and their combination with associated <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/switchgear">control, measuring, protective, and regulating equipment</a>. These devices are found throughout the power transmission and distribution system.</p>
<p>Considered cost-effective and high-performing, SF<sub>6</sub> technology plays an important role for the reliability of power transmission and distribution networks in Europe, <a href="https://www.tdeurope.eu/publicationss/position-papers.html">“which constitutes the backbone of the infrastructure necessary to deliver the energy transition”</a>.</p>
<h2>The European Commission is keeping an eye on SF<sub>6</sub></h2>
<p>Current EU <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/FR/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32014R0517">F-gas regulation</a> prohibits the use of SF<sub>6</sub> in many non-electric applications, but not in MV switchgear. Today, about two thirds of the <a href="https://www.iee.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/iee/energiesystemtechnik/de/Dokumente/Projekte/f-gas-free/F-gas-free-study-summary-final.pdf">15 million MV switchgear units</a> installed in Europe (EU28) use SF<sub>6</sub>. When the EU F-gas regulation was last revised in 2014, it was considered that no cost-effective and reliable alternatives to SF<sub>6</sub> were available. </p>
<p>In the MV sector, however, this picture is slowly changing thanks to technological progress. The European Commission recently publishing a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/news/docs/c_2020_6635_en.pdf">report reassessing the availability of alternatives to SF₆ in MV switchgear</a>. Based on this report, the Commission might suggest amendments to the current regulation including a phase-out of SF<sub>6</sub> in MV switchgear.</p>
<h2>Will industry take up SF<sub>6</sub>-free alternatives?</h2>
<p>Today, different alternatives to SF<sub>6</sub> in MV switchgear are on the market. Yet users – power utilities, industrial sites, the service and infrastructure sectors – seem reluctant to adopt them.</p>
<p>Against this background, we conducted a large-scale survey to better understand MV switchgear customer purchasing criteria, including technical, economic as well as environmental aspects.</p>
<p>Survey respondents were selected to be company representatives with knowledge about switchgear. The survey was completed anonymously by a total of 443 respondents in five European countries during November 2019-January 2020.</p>
<p>Our results reveal that switchgear users generally anticipate a decrease in the use of SF<sub>6</sub> technology. At the same time, they remain uncertain which technology will most likely replace SF<sub>6</sub>. Currently available alternatives are perceived as taking up too much space, being too expensive or not being available from reliable suppliers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363471/original/file-20201014-17-1khz1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Survey results from question ‘In your opinion, which factors are most relevant for your company’s decision to use an SF6 technology? You can select up to five factors’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guetlein/Sebi</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, the anticipated decrease in use of SF<sub>6</sub> appears to be primarily policy driven: A majority of 54% of respondents indicate that policies and regulations are a main driver for their company’s decision to adopt SF<sub>6</sub>-free alternatives. Asked about policies in general, respondents consider financial incentives (e.g. subsidies) for users of MV switchgear and a complete ban on SF<sub>6</sub> to be the two most useful policies to promote SF<sub>6</sub>-free MV switchgear.</p>
<h2>Paying for more environmentally friendly switchgear</h2>
<p>According to respondents, a higher purchasing price is one of the main barriers for adoption of SF<sub>6</sub>-free alternative. At the same time, survey participants were in principle willing to pay more for environmental-friendly switchgear options – on average up to 20% compared to their usual purchasing price. Similarly, eco-friendliness was identified as one of the most important purchase criteria for MV switchgear.</p>
<p>This indicates that customers are willing to move toward SF<sub>6</sub>-free – and thus greener – alternatives, though barriers remain.</p>
<h2>Accelerating the transition</h2>
<p>The fact that customers seem to care about environmental aspects when purchasing MV switchgear suggests that an environmental label for MV switchgear could help accelerate adoption of alternative technologies. Such a label could for instance feature an evaluation of the product’s environmental impact or be used to certify F-gas free switchgear.</p>
<p>To be widely adopted, SF<sub>6</sub>-free alternatives must not only meet environmental but also technical and economic requirements.</p>
<p>Given these constraints it seems unlikely that market forces will suffice to have the majority of switchgear users switch to alternative technologies in the near future.</p>
<p>A product label could support the transition, but more drastic policy interventions are likely necessary. While production volumes for alternatives remain low and prices high, financial incentives for users could spur adoption.</p>
<p>Ultimately, a phase-out of SF<sub>6</sub> in MV switchgear would push manufacturers and users inevitably toward alternative solutions.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors’ research was supported by the power-grid stakeholders Schneider Electric and Siemens, which are investigating the environmental and socio-economic impact of SF<sub>6</sub> in power distribution grids.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147888/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>To carry out the survey and research mentioned in this article, Marie-Charlotte Guetlein received funding from major players in electrical energy management, Schneider Electric and Siemens.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>To carry out the survey and research mentioned in this article, Carine Sebi received funding from major players in electrical energy management, Schneider Electric and Siemens.</span></em></p>Used in electrical switching equipment, sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) has a global-warming impact 23,500 times higher than CO₂. New EU regulations seek to promote alternatives.Marie-Charlotte Guetlein, Professeur d’économie, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Carine Sebi, Associate Professor and Coordinator of the "Energy for Society" Chair, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1117802019-03-05T12:12:27Z2019-03-05T12:12:27ZThe future of blockchain according to experts in the energy sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258765/original/file-20190213-181599-mggo4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C29%2C1024%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Romanian electric power transmission lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Romanian_electric_power_transmission_lines.jpg">Wikipedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Blockchain technology is a decentralised digital ledger that keeps public but encrypted records of peer-to-peer transactions. All members of a blockchain network can verify whether a transaction occurred or not, rendering clearinghouses or other intermediaries obsolete. The technology originally served as the backbone of bitcoin, the well-known crypto-currency, and later made its way to other industries. In France, blockchain represents a vibrant industry as the nation trailblazes the way for the technology in the hope of becoming a blockchain hub in the European Union. The French minister of finance, Bruno Le Maire, believes that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The blockchain will offer new opportunities to our startups, for example, with initial coin offerings that will allow them to raise funds through tokens.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In December 2018, two French members of Parliament, Jean-Michel Mis and Laure de La Raudière, submitted a <a href="http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/15/rap-info/i1501.asp">report</a> recommending that the French Government invest 500 million euros on public blockchain endeavors over the next three years in order to build a “blockhain nation”.</p>
<p>The unique characteristics of blockchain technology (lower transaction costs, increased transparency and enhanced security) are creating new opportunities for the French electricity sector. A few start-ups such as <a href="https://www.sunchain.fr/">Sunchain</a> or <a href="http://www.evolutionenergie.com/">Evolution Energy</a> are currently establishing blockchain-based projects with the main aim of further decentralizing existing energy systems. Several barriers to the wide adoption of blockchain however are yet to be overcome.</p>
<h2>Where is the blockchain headed?</h2>
<p>In this context, the <a href="https://en.grenoble-em.com/news-energy-market-barometer-report-winter-2018">Energy Market Barometers</a> conducted by Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) in December 2018 asked experts for their opinion on where blockchain is headed in the French energy sector. As a first finding, the experts were almost equally split in their opinion on whether blockchain will play a rather important or a rather unimportant role in the French electricity system of tomorrow. To understand the importance of blockchain technology in the energy sector and the challenges that it faces, the experts were asked for their opinion on the viability of specific blockchain applications and the potential benefits, as well as the barriers currently limiting a wider diffusion of the technology in France.</p>
<p>According to the experts, the most promising applications of blockchain technology in the electricity sector in the next five years, are “peer-to-peer energy trading” and “electric vehicle charging and sharing”. The blockchain promises to create a system whereby energy prosumers from the commercial sector or private homes can trade electricity without the interference of a central authority. With the continuous growth of electric vehicles, blockchain promises to provide an adequate, publicly available charging infrastructure that tackles the “lack of range” challenge, by enabling individuals to make their private EV charging stations available for public use for a fee.</p>
<p>Currently, the majority of players in the blockchain for energy market are trying to enact some form of peer-to-peer energy trading. In 2017, Enedis, working with the French start-up Sunchain and the Departmental Council of Pyrénées-Orientales, launched one of the first P2P energy sharing projects in France. The project, DIGISOL, explored the use of blockchain technology to share solar energy between individuals within the same building (collective auto-consumption). A large-scale deployment of the technology for P2P energy trading however is still inexistent in France.</p>
<p><strong>Which blockchain use case do you see as most viable for applying the technology within the energy sector in France in the next five years?</strong></p>
<p>Blockchain technology is interesting for its potential to decentralise energy markets and improve flexibility. blockchain enables real-time coordination of electricity supply and demand data that can improve demand-side energy efficiency. blockchain solutions can also be used to accurately monitor and control energy performance in real-time, which will ultimately increase supply side efficiency. In effect, blockchain provides companies with ways to efficiently track energy usage and generation, and to identify network anomalies, which can improve response time in case of a failure or a blackout. In France, ENGIE is exploring the use of blockchain technology to monitor water, natural gas and energy flows. The company has also partnered with different blockchain players, such as <a href="https://www.ledger.fr">LEDGER</a>, which specializes in security and infrastructure solutions for cryptocurrencies and blockchain applications, to develop blockchain for energy market solutions.</p>
<p><strong>What potential benefits can blockchain bring to the energy sector in France?</strong></p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258762/original/file-20190213-181589-yp9koy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=256&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>However, the experts also identified key barriers that limit the widespread diffusion of blockchain technology.</p>
<h2>Unclear regulatory and legal framework</h2>
<p>Blockchain solutions are rapidly growing and innovating far ahead of existing regulations. Clear legal definitions and regulatory frameworks are needed in order to clear up the current level of uncertainty that is associated with blockchain. The French government, along with players in the blockchain ecosystem, is still working on establishing favorable regulations and legal frameworks for the technology. In December 2018, the French Accounting Standards Authority established a regulation that defines the accounting rules applicable to Initial Coin Offerings (ICO; a highly popular approach to raise capital in the blockchain space) issuers, ICO investors, and organizations that hold any type of crypto currency or crypto-asset. However, several issues such as intellectual-property, data privacy, and enforceability of contracts remain to be addressed.</p>
<h2>Electricity consumption</h2>
<p>Current blockchain designs run on algorithms that can consume up to 215 kWh per transaction (i.e., the equivalent of letting an incandescent light bulb of 25W burn for a full year). This is mainly because validating and securing transactions on the blockchain requires huge computing power. For example, the servers that run bitcoin’s software are estimated to use at least 22 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year, which is almost the level of Ireland’s annual electricity consumption. An expansion of blockchain will require additional “data mining” and consequently additional energy consumption. A number of green-mining solutions that use renewable energy sources and more energy-efficient hardware are currently being tested. The green-energy startup <a href="https://www.hydrominer.org/">Hydrominer</a>, which operates two hydropower mining farms in the Austrian Alps is one example.</p>
<p><strong>What are the main barriers that are currently limiting a wider diffusion of blockchain technology within the energy sector in France?</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258763/original/file-20190213-181609-1hmo6hf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Technical complexity</h2>
<p>Current blockchain designs are extremely difficult to develop, deploy and maintain. For the novice user, making a transaction on the blockchain can be challenging, as it requires technical knowledge and several sophisticated steps. A number of big IT players are currently providing cloud-based blockchain services intended to automate the setup of blockchain infrastructures. Future blockchain applications may need to adopt a plug-and-play infrastructure that is much more user-friendly in order to attain wider diffusion.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The energy market barometers conducted in December 2018 among 112 experts from industry, science and public administration in France asked about the role of blockchain technology in the French energy sector. The results can be found <a href="https://en.grenoble-em.com/sites/default/files/public/kcfinder/files/Barometer-energy-2018-Winter-EN.pdf">here</a>.</em>_</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joachim Schleich a reçu des financements de Commission européenne.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fakher Omezzine ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The blockchain is creating new opportunities for the electricity sector. The December 2018 Energy Market Barometers looks at where experts think the technology is heading.Fakher Omezzine, Ph.D student, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Joachim Schleich, Professor of Energy Economics, Grenoble École de Management (GEM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1122352019-02-21T14:23:40Z2019-02-21T14:23:40ZSouth Africa takes important next steps to solving its power crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/260144/original/file-20190221-195870-sophye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keeping South Africa's lights on will come at a cost. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his maiden <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2019/speech/speech.pdf">budget speech,</a> South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni, confirmed the depth of the financial crisis at South Africa’s power utility Eskom. He also underscored the serious risks this poses to economic recovery in the country. </p>
<p>Mboweni allocated R23bn a year over the next three years to Eskom, to be extended over the next ten years if needed. Without this support – and additional measures to address the structural roots of operational and governance crises at the utility – the costs could be much higher.</p>
<p>The minister made clear that fiscal support would be provided with strict conditions. First off, a Chief Reorganisation Officer will be appointed by the ministers of finance and public enterprises. This person’s mandate will be to implement the recommendations of a recently appointed <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/press-statements/president-appoints-eskom-sustainability-task-team">task team</a> set up to advise government on resolving Eskom’s challenges. </p>
<p>Mboweni also confirmed that Eskom would be broken up. This follows President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2019-state-nation-address-7-feb-2019-0000">earlier this month</a> that the power utility would be unbundled into 3 separate companies – generation, transmission and distribution. The first priority would be to establish an independent transmission company. </p>
<p>In addition Eskom’s turnaround plan will be formalised in a new shareholder compact with the Minister of Public Enterprises. This will include maintenance plans, technical improvements and management of the capital expenditure programme. </p>
<p>The interventions and reforms in the budget combine both short term interventions – such as the fiscal support – as well as the first steps to longer term structural reforms. The idea is to keep Eskom afloat while the sector transitions. </p>
<p>The route being mapped out is controversial. And government should listen to the <a href="https://citizen.co.za/business/2080549/unions-stand-firm-against-eskom-unbundling/">vocal opposition</a> from unions to unbundling as well as questions being raised about the appropriate role for the private sector. </p>
<p>It’s not enough to demonstrate how the proposed interventions might address the governance, operational and financial crisis at Eskom. Government will also have to show how its plans will protect the most vulnerable. And how its plans will deliver tangible benefits to all South Africans. </p>
<p>The only way this will be possible is through meaningful engagement with labour, municipalities and civil society. It will also need transparent planning and implementation. </p>
<h2>Taking the first step</h2>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28853/WPS8235.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">Experience elsewhere</a> shows that there are often considerable delays between announcing plans and implementation. South Africa is no exception. Previous plans to restructure Eskom got bogged down in lengthy policy and legislative processes. </p>
<p>But the new approach suggests there’s room for some optimism. Establishing an independent, state-owned transmission company within the current legislative framework is a pragmatic first step in a longer-term process. And working within the bounds of existing policy is prudent and could help catalyse the momentum to transform the sector. </p>
<p>The transmission company will be established as a subsidiary to Eskom Holdings and a board will be appointed by mid-2019. Following this the relevant assets, debts, personnel and licenses will be migrated to it. This will include Eskom’s substations and associated infrastructure, the national control centre, system operator assets and a group of Eskom’s power stations known as Peaker stations. These operate during peak periods or when the system is under duress and are essential for system balancing. Property rights, transmission licenses and supply agreements with existing clients, will also be transferred.</p>
<p>Separating the national transmission grid could lead to critical changes in the sector. In the short-term, it could provide some relief from the current crises, such as the recent <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/South-Africa/eskoms-load-shedding-the-biggest-political-nightmare-to-have-shaken-the-anc-20190217-2">power cuts</a>. Critically, combining transmission with systems operation, power planning, procurement and buying functions could pave the way for contracting new power suppliers, at a lower cost, through competitive procurement processes. </p>
<p>Fast-tracking this procurement process may lead to an increase in generation capacity within the next two years. It would also diversify the risks of dependence on Eskom generation, which is facing a myriad of problems. These include the faulty and costly <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-02-15-00-medupi-and-kusile-costly-and-faulty">Medupi and Kusile</a> mega plants.</p>
<p>A number of global trends are also likely to facilitate change. Countries are increasingly moving to renewable energy because it’s becoming cheaper to produce on the back of rapid technology developments. This places countries like South Africa in a much better position to move to new, cheaper and cleaner technologies, as well as to develop innovative distribution models. For example, municipalities might procure power directly from independent power producers, using the transmission grid to transport it. Or individual households might be able to switch to paying for back up electricity services to balance solar home generation. </p>
<h2>Benefits</h2>
<p>A host of additional benefits are likely to flow <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-latest-plan-for-state-owned-power-giant-could-work-111480">from the unbundling</a> of Eskom. For example, the power utilities operations should become much more transparent, which in turn will improve accountability. In its current form, Eskom’s sheer size and complexity gets in the way of making it accountable to its shareholder – the government – and South African citizens. </p>
<p>The changes should also translate into increased investment from the private sector, commercial banks and development partners. This matters because increased investment in the sector is critical for its long-term sustainability and growth. It’s also important because the state can’t go on diverting resources from other critical services to foot the bill for the outmoded giant. Reforms are about solving the problems of the past and stemming the flow of resources through the Eskom “seive”. Reforms are also about setting a path to a more sustainable power future for the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catrina Godinho receives funding from UCT. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Hermanus receives funding from UCT. </span></em></p>Eskom, South Africa’s power utility will be unbundled and receive financial support from national treasury. These are the next steps.Catrina Godinho, Research associate, University of Cape TownLauren Hermanus, Research associate, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1115102019-02-10T13:32:24Z2019-02-10T13:32:24ZExplainer: why South Africa’s energy generator is in so much trouble<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258072/original/file-20190210-174861-bywlwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's no painless way for South Africans to deal with the power utility crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eskom is by far the largest of South Africa’s many state owned companies. This near monopoly power utility is in crisis. It’s the <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/255015/eskom-is-the-single-biggest-risk-to-south-africas-economy/">single largest threat</a> to South Africa’s economy, according to a former minister of finance. The Conversation Africa spoke to Adjunct Professor Rod Crompton about why this is the case and what can be done. </p>
<h2>How is power generated and distributed in South Africa?</h2>
<p>Electricity markets in most countries consist of three parts: generation, transmission and distribution. Most electricity is generated by using heat to boil water to create steam which in turn spins a turbine that generates electricity.</p>
<p>South Africa’s cheap and abundant coal resources made coal generated electricity an obvious choice for many years. Initially, power stations were owned by municipalities and large mining and industrial concerns. But as the costs of recapitalisation emerged, government was persuaded to take over responsibility for power. </p>
<p>Eskom is <a href="http://www.dpe.gov.za/soc/Pages/Eskom.aspx">among the biggest</a> power utilities <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/how-power-utility-eskom-is-hobbling-south-africas-economy-2018-12-05">in the world</a>, famous for its ability to handle vast tonnages of low grade coal. Eskom accounts for <a href="http://www.dpe.gov.za/soc/Pages/Eskom.aspx">over 90% of power generating</a> capacity. Its power plants are mostly coal with one nuclear station and some pumped storage (water). Only a few minor power generators have remained outside Eskom’s fold. </p>
<p>More recently, international climate change pressure caused government to introduce renewable power generation through <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-to-release-new-look-renewables-bid-window-in-november-2018-06-01">bidding rounds</a>. These private investors were given 20 year price guarantees underwritten by government – some at exorbitant prices. Nevertheless, as these technologies became more globally popular, some of them – solar (photo voltaic) and wind power – emerged as the lowest cost generators. </p>
<p>All power generation is tied into Eskom’s national transmission grid that moves electricity from generation stations to demand areas. Transmission is a natural monopoly. If you want to use the transmission grid you need Eskom’s permission. </p>
<p>Transmission lines end where high voltage power is stepped down to distribution networks until it reaches residential customers – at 220 volts. In many areas Eskom sells to municipal distributors.</p>
<p>So, Eskom is a vertically integrated near monopoly responsible for generation, transmission and distribution.</p>
<h2>Is this monopoly situation unusual in the 21st century?</h2>
<p>In many countries competition between power generators has been encouraged to drive down prices. Transmission, being a natural monopoly, remains just that; but like toll roads they are open to all who obey the “road rules” and pay the toll. The same goes for distribution to a lesser extent.</p>
<h2>What’s the trouble with Eskom?</h2>
<p>Eskom has two major problems. Its operating costs are too high and it can’t pay its debt. It owes over <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/eskom-needs-a-bailout/">R400 billion</a> and does not generate enough cash to pay even the interest on its debt. It’s reached the end of the road. </p>
<p>Eskom has been getting steep tariff increases in recent years but these have driven some customers off-grid and shut others down. Eskom’s sales have been declining by about 1% per <a href="https://www.biznews.com/briefs/2018/07/23/eskom-loss-power-sales-drop-debt-slumps">annum</a>. The less it sells, the higher the tariff it wants, and the less it sells – the utility death spiral.</p>
<h2>How did it get here?</h2>
<p>The main cause of its troubles is its decision to build two of the biggest coal fired generating plants in the world, (<a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/Whatweredoing/NewBuild/MedupiPowerStation/Documents/NB_0002MedupiFactSheetSept2013.pdf">Medupi</a> and <a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/Whatweredoing/NewBuild/Pages/Kusile_Power_Station.aspx">Kusile</a>). These plants are running way behind schedule, they’re over budget and the bits that are complete don’t work properly. They are <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/editorials/2018-06-20-editorial-keep-an-open-mind-on--energy/">probably</a> the single largest disaster in South Africa’s economic history.</p>
<p>“State capture” (patronage networks), corruption and poor management have led to over staffing and neglected maintenance, resulting in <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/corruption-state-capture-behind-eskoms-downfall-nersa-hears-20190114-2">constant breakdowns</a>. Electricity theft, a culture of non-payment and defaulting municipalities have deepened the <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/how-eskoms-looming-death-spiral-is-menacing-sa-economy-20181206">crisis</a>. Eskom is owed over <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/293980/why-youre-going-to-pay-more-for-eskoms-mistakes/">R30 billion</a>.</p>
<h2>What are the answers?</h2>
<p>Eskom needs to simultaneously reduce operating costs, increase tariffs and shed a big chunk of its debt. There is no painless way for South Africans to deal with their Eskom crisis. And it can’t wait until the national elections on 8 May 2019.</p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed a team of advisers and has announced that Eskom is to be split into three subsidiaries: generation, transmission and distribution. This has been a government policy since 1998. This should increase cost and debt transparency and may lead to increased efficiencies, especially if competition is allowed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-latest-plan-for-state-owned-power-giant-could-work-111480">Why South Africa's latest plan for state-owned power giant could work</a>
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<p>Ramaphosa hinted that Eskom will be allowed to invest in renewables, possibly to absorb surplus staff and avoid retrenchments that have been so <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/num-union-tells-ramaphosa-to-scrap-eskom-split-plan/">vehemently opposed</a> by the unions. Some think this is too little too late. He passed the debt hot potato to the minister of finance’s budget speech on 20 February 2018. </p>
<p>Energy Minister Jeff Radebe <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/prepare-for-greater-power-generation-competition-radebe-tells-eskom-2018-06-04">said</a> Eskom must prepare for increased competition, presumably in generation. The transmission network needs to be opened to allow this. The courts <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/court-prevents-eskom-from-cutting-off-musinas-electricity-20181120">have stopped</a> Eskom from switching off defaulting municipalities. Esokm’s crisis gets worse every day. Government will have to sort out municipal non-payment or allow towns and cities to go dark or let Eskom collapse. </p>
<p>Until the President’s statement, government seemed paralysed. Will words turn into the effective action that’s needed to save South Africa from its power utility?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Crompton is the Director of the African Energy Leadership Centre at Wits Business School which receives funding from the CHIETA. He is a non-executive director of Eskom and a member of SANEA and the South African Association of Energy Economists.
</span></em></p>There’s no easy way for Eskom to claw its way out of the crisis it’s in.Rod Crompton, Adjunct professor African Energy Leadership Centre Wits Business School, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114802019-02-10T07:39:24Z2019-02-10T07:39:24ZWhy South Africa’s latest plan for state-owned power giant could work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258048/original/file-20190209-174887-5um8of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is change finally on the horizon for South Africa's power utility?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gavin Fordham/ flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has unveiled a new plan for the country’s beleaguered state owned power utility, Eskom. During his <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2019-state-nation-address-7-feb-2019-0000">State of the Nation Address</a> on 7 February, Ramaphosa announced that Eskom would be unbundled into “three separate entities – generation, transmission and distribution”. These would all be established “under Eskom Holdings”. </p>
<p>This announcement has been a long time coming. It was first proposed and formalised 20 years ago in the country’s <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/files/policies/whitepaper_energypolicy_1998.pdf">1998 White Paper on Energy Policy</a>. Among other things, the policy sought to break Eskom into distinct smaller entities.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa’s speech was the seventh State of the Nation Address in which a president committed to structural reforms in the electricity sector. Former Presidents <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/2001-president-mbeki-state-nation-address-9-february-2001">Thabo Mbeki</a> and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/2010-president-zuma-state-nation-address-11-february-2010-0">Jacob Zuma</a> made similar promises. Given that they never followed through, Ramaphosa’s announcement may sound all too familiar – and hollow – to some.</p>
<p>But we believe the unbundling will have far reaching consequences for South Africa’s energy sector. Ramaphosa offered a comprehensive outline of the plan. His commitment also comes at a time when <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Links/2018/November%202018/28-11-2018/Final%20Report%20-%20Eskom%20Inquiry%2028%20NOV.pdf">Eskom is mired in financial, operational and governance crises</a>. This time, it seems, an electricity reform may really be on the horizon.</p>
<h2>Unbundling explained</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.powerfutures.org/updates/2019/2/6/what-is-unbundling-understanding-electricity-sector-unbundling-in-sa">Unbundling</a> is a type of structural reform. In the electricity sector, vertical unbundling refers to the separation of a utility’s generation, transmission, distribution and (sometimes) retail functions. Horizontal unbundling refers to the creation or entry of multiple players into each of these functions. The players may compete against each other to deliver the same service. </p>
<p>South Africa is certainly not the first country to undergo this type of reform. It can learn from examples of similar processes in countries like <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/9780821395561_CH19">Kenya</a> and <a href="https://www.era.or.ug/index.php/sector-overview/uganda-electricity-sector">Uganda</a>. </p>
<p>There are a number of benefits associated with unbundling. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>more efficiency, resilience and sustainability through a tighter focus and clearer incentives within each functional area; </p></li>
<li><p>More competition and diversification of players; </p></li>
<li><p>Clarity in costs and functions of unbundled entities, which increases accountability for the purposes of governance and oversight; and,</p></li>
<li><p>Low-cost procurement driven by effective planning, competition and transparency.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Eskom currently operates as a vertically integrated monopoly. This means it performs the generation, transmission, distribution and retail functions. Its current structure and governance systems were cemented by apartheid’s internationally isolated security state. This outdated structure, which is characterised by a lack of transparency and accountability, has continued to shape the utility in the years since democracy.</p>
<p>There is a narrow window for municipalities and the private sector to play a role in distribution and retail, and generation, respectively. </p>
<p>But Eskom still generates approximately <a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/Whatweredoing/SupplyStatus/Pages/SupplyStatusT.aspx">90% of the country’s electricity</a>. It exercises tremendous power in controlling access to the national grid. It has used its dominance to oppose national energy policy by, for example, <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/energy/disagreement-over-benefit-of-ipp-projects-for-sa-14277850">refusing to sign power purchase agreements</a> with independent power producers.</p>
<h2>South Africa is lagging behind</h2>
<p>This kind of monopolistic structure is unusual by international standards, in both developed and developing countries. And it often comes with operational inefficiencies, bloated costs and poor governance. </p>
<p>Eskom has experienced all of these maladies. This has been demonstrated by its conduct with independent power producers, its role in the <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/eskom-powers-ahead-with-nuclear-plans-report-shows-20171117">controversial nuclear deal</a>, which has now been put on ice, and endemic corruption exposed by the portfolio <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Links/2018/November%202018/28-11-2018/Final%20Report%20-%20Eskom%20Inquiry%2028%20NOV.pdf">committee on public enterprises’ inquiry</a> into allegations of state capture at the utility.</p>
<p>These challenges are not unique to South Africa. But the country is behind the curve when it comes to addressing the structural factors and ensuring that its energy sector is well positioned to benefit from technological developments and shifting investment trends.</p>
<h2>What Ramaphosa’s announcement means</h2>
<p>President Ramaphosa has committed to the full vertical unbundling of Eskom. Generation, transmission and distribution companies will have their own boards and executive structures. This process will take time to implement, probably in the region of <a href="https://www.powerfutures.org/updates/2019/2/6/what-is-unbundling-understanding-electricity-sector-unbundling-in-sa">five years</a>.</p>
<p>It will require legislative and possibly policy reform. Due to the urgent need for transformation in the sector, the president said immediate attention should be given to the establishment of an independent, state owned transmission grid company. </p>
<p>A good starting point for the unbundling process would be the establishment of an Eskom subsidiary with its own board. This subsidiary would oversee the migration of relevant assets and personnel. The intention would be to combine the transmission, system operation, power planning, procurement and buying functions. This separation is intended to leave the grid company free to contract independent power producers and Eskom generation without the conflict of interest that currently exists. As it stands, Eskom transmission is incentivised to give its own generation plants preference, blocking new technology and new entrants to bolster its own operations. </p>
<p>It’s not only the president’s explicit commitment to a comprehensive reform plan that makes this announcement different from those that came before. The sector is in a fundamentally different situation compared to the early 2000s and early 2010s. </p>
<p>Eskom is in the midst of extreme financial, operational and governance crises which it will not be able to solve alone, especially within the context of the complex <a href="https://irena.org/publications/2018/Apr/Global-Energy-Transition-A-Roadmap-to-2050">global energy transition</a>. </p>
<p>But, to ensure this plan doesn’t go the way of its predecessors, Ramaphosa must ensure meaningful consultation and dialogue with all key stakeholders, as well as credible and sustainable plans to address the needs of all those who may be affected. Without this, the president’s announcement will meet the same fate as previous South African energy policy reform pronouncements. Reform is a complex social and technical process. It is not without risk and costs. This time, however, failure of implementation is not something the country can afford. </p>
<p><em>Eskom provides 90% of South Africa’s energy. This article originally said it was 95%, a figure sourced from Eskom. <a href="https://africacheck.org/">Africa Check</a> notified us that this was incorrect. Eskom has corrected the figure, as have we.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111480/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Hermanus receives funding from UCT. She is the director of Adapt, a network-based sustainable development consultancy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catrina Godinho receives funding from UCT. </span></em></p>South Africa’s president has committed to structural reforms in the energy sector.Lauren Hermanus, Research associate, University of Cape TownCatrina Godinho, Research associate, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1099032019-02-04T14:36:26Z2019-02-04T14:36:26ZIs South Africa on the cusp of a major shift in energy policy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256990/original/file-20190204-193217-iw5tfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can South Africa keep the lights on? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">flickr/ Paul Saad</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africans go to the polls <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/2019-elections-likely-be-may">this year</a>. And for the first time the country’s energy future is becoming a significant subject of contestation.</p>
<p>This is because the public is now much more aware of the ongoing crisis at the national electricity utility <a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/Pages/Landing.aspx">Eskom</a> and the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-12-13-our-eskom-fork-in-the-road/">economic impact</a> this threatens to have on the country. </p>
<p>In addition, it’s becoming clearer that the present South African electricity supply system is <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-09-25-concerns-mount-over-eskoms-medium-term-system-adequacy-outlook/">no longer sustainable</a>. This is true for two main reasons.</p>
<p>The first is that South Africa’s electricity comes largely from ageing coal plants. The global outlook for coal power generation is <a href="https://www.iea.org/tcep/power/coal/">negative</a> given coal’s contribution to climate change. Secondly, Eskom is in a precarious financial position even though it holds a monopoly in the power sector.</p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa has set up a <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/these-are-the-8-members-of-ramaphosas-eskom-task-team-18510736">presidential task team</a> to explore optimal ways to address these big issues. One of its remits is to come up with a new role for Eskom. Its recommendations are expected to include that the power utility is <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/energy-experts-say-eskom-must-go-20180518">broken up</a> into smaller units: power generation, electricity transmission on the national grid and distribution to customers.</p>
<p>The task team could also recommend that the distribution of electricity gets deregulated. This could involve Eskom’s stranglehold on distribution being broken and the door being opened to localised <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/15/16714146/greener-more-reliable-more-resilient-grid-microgrids">microgrids</a>.</p>
<p>But the most contentious issue by far is the role of coal in the country’s future energy mix. The task team is likely to endorse the gradual <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-09-07-south-africas-king-coal-sector-is-in-a-state-of-crisis/">closure of coal power plants</a> over the next 30 years. This proposal has already been articulated in the government’s latest <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/7-takeaways-from-sas-energy-plan-the-draft-irp-2018-20180827">draft Integrated Resource Plan</a>, the country’s official electricity plan that guides the establishment of new power plants (and closure of old ones). </p>
<p>But winding down the country’s dependency on coals will take huge political will, as well as workable plans to mitigate against job losses.</p>
<p>Tied to the country reducing its dependency on coal is a move towards renewable energy. <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-01-30-south-africas-electricity-choice-part-1-why-ramaphosa-must-kill-the-nuclear-dream/">Energy specialists</a> argue reliable and cost-effective electricity can best be supplied by the massive expansion of renewable energy capacity. </p>
<p>But there are still very different viewpoints on the future of energy in the country. This includes diehard supporters of nuclear power as well as those who want to maintain the coal-dominated status quo.</p>
<h2>The ANC and renewable energy</h2>
<p>The African National Congress kicked off the debate in its <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/the-ancs-2019-election-manifesto">election manifesto</a> published in mid-January. Instead of playing down this potentially divisive energy issue, the ruling party chose to detail a vision of major investment in renewable energy as the path to a secure power future for the country.</p>
<p>The ANC manifesto noted the fact that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01/13/renewable-energy-cost-effective-fossil-fuels-2020/#30d6015f4ff2">the cost of electricity from renewables</a> continues to fall internationally.</p>
<p>The document also stated that there was a need to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>reposition Eskom to play an active role in the renewable energy sector and promote public ownership in renewable energy infrastructure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This highlights the opportunity to evolve Eskom from its current limited role as a purchaser and transmitter of green electricity generated by independent power producers to a hub of <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2018-04-03-eskom-should-boost-its-output-of-in-house-renewables">renewable energy production</a>.</p>
<p>This is a significant shift from the stance taken by the Zuma administration, which had drifted towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-presidents-last-ditch-effort-to-ram-through-a-nuclear-power-deal-87018">pushing nuclear energy at all costs</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-and-coal-lobbies-threaten-to-scupper-renewables-in-south-africa-79799">stifling renewable energy</a> development. </p>
<p>In contrast, the present ANC policy formulators seem to view renewables as the opportunity for a big leap away from the increasingly <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-03-05-sas-energy-future-at-stake/">dated looking coal-based economy</a>.</p>
<p>Eskom’s role in the renewables sector is just one change being mooted as part of a package of major changes. Another is deregulation of the sector. For example, the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s official opposition party, supports the <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2019/01/the-anc-should-not-play-politics-and-support-the-das-plan-to-fix-eskom-crisis">privatisation of the electricity sector</a>, and in particular favours municipalities being able to choose how they procure their electricity. This would have to be effected by the expansion of large-scale private sector electricity generation through <a href="https://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/">independent power producers</a>.</p>
<h2>Opposition</h2>
<p>The advance of the new renewable energy technologies naturally threatens previously well-established power technologies. Energy from coal in particular will be declining in view of the global imperative to reduce carbon emissions to reduce the threat of global warming.</p>
<p>South Africa is a major coal exporter. Any move against coal would put the coal mining sector in a <a href="http://ieefa.org/ieefa-update-south-african-coal-exports-face-long-term-decline/">precarious position</a>. And talk of winding down coals has spawned fears of major job losses. As a result <a href="https://www.numsa.org.za/article/numsa-to-march-with-the-num-to-protest-against-retrenchments-ipps-and-closure-of-coal-mines/">trade unions</a> in the sector are on high alert. </p>
<p>Those involved in designing a new energy future for the country are aware of these fears. As a result, <a href="https://cer.org.za/news/the-transition-to-a-low-carbon-future-must-be-rapid-and-must-be-for-everyone">measures</a> are being mooted to soften the impact. These include retraining coal-sector workers and preferential localisation of renewable energy plants in traditional coal mining areas.</p>
<p>Despite this, coal and nuclear lobby groups have in the last two years upped the ante with a <a href="http://www.ee.co.za/article/eskom-ipps-coal-truck-drivers.html">campaign targeting the independent power producers</a> based on the high cost of the electricity supplied by the earliest solar and wind farms. </p>
<p>This line of argument ignores the fact that the latest renewable plants produce electricity at a <a href="https://www.ee.co.za/article/end-baseloadism-south-africa-need-flexible-power-generation.html">cost lower</a> than would be the case from new coal or nuclear power stations.</p>
<h2>Ramaphosa’s juggling act</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa has a tough juggling act to pull off. Does he have the political will, and space within a fractious ruling party, to announce a truly bold new path for Eskom? Can he set down a vision for a modern, renewables-driven energy framework? </p>
<p>Given that it’s an election year he will need to keep his trade union allies on his side. And he’ll have to face down an industry lobby that won’t want to give up coal. But he knows that the country’s economic upturn is paramount now, and that the energy sector transformation goes hand in hand with that. 2019 will see some bold moves into a new energy future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the NRF. He is a member of OUTA and Save SA, but writes in his personal capacity.</span></em></p>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s pronouncements on the power utility Eskom, during the State of the Nation Address may lead to significant changes in country’s energy policy.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/937752018-04-09T10:42:55Z2018-04-09T10:42:55ZWhy nuclear fusion is gaining steam – again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213650/original/file-20180406-5572-pr43m1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The coils winding facility building in France, where a global effort to build the ITER fusion energy reactor is underway</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/provence-france-july-31-2017-iter-724596454?src=kvVCIuBuZZiT0uluwF0bEA-1-23">Rob Crandall/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back when I studied geology in grad school, the long-term future of energy had a single name: nuclear fusion. It was the 1970s. The physicists I studied with predicted that tapping this clean new source of electric power by forcing two nuclei of hydrogen to combine and release massive amounts of energy, might be 50 years off.</p>
<p>Four decades later, after I’d left my career of research and writing in the energy industry and begun a second career as an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dCRySjIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">author and a professor</a>, I found myself making this same forecast with my own students and readers. In what had become an ironic cliché, fusion, it seemed, would forever haunt a distant horizon. </p>
<p>That seems to be changing, finally.</p>
<p>Thanks to advances in physics research, materials science and supercomputing, scientists are <a href="http://www.lindau-nobel.org/where-is-fusion-research-today/">building and testing</a> multiple fusion reactor designs. About a dozen <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10042-Private-sector-companies-are-firing-up-the-fusion-race">fusion startups</a> with innovative ideas have the private investment they need to see what they can achieve. Still, it’s too early to break out the champagne, and not only for technical reasons.</p>
<h2>Underwhelming breakthroughs</h2>
<p>One problem is that a breakthrough in the lab doesn’t guarantee innovation or success in the marketplace because energy is very price sensitive. Also, fusion illustrates how few things can erode faith in a new technology like an imminent “breakthrough” that fails to materialize.</p>
<p>First, there was the <a href="https://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/cold_fusion_01">cold fusion</a> debacle in 1989, when two scientists went to the media with the unverifiable claim they had achieved room-temperature fusion and were ostracized by the scientific community, sullying the image of this energy source as a real option. </p>
<p>Then, scientists hit a milestone in 1994 when the test fusion reactor at Princeton set a new record for peak power of 10.7 megawatts, which The New York Times said at the time was “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/11/08/science/princeton-fusion-reactor-sets-a-power-record.html">enough to power 2,000 to 3,000 homes momentarily</a>, meaning roughly a microsecond. Scientifically, that event had great importance, though it was topped in 1997. Yet it hardly promised a power reactor just around the corner.</p>
<p>Along the way, the tendency of scientists and journalists to hype real progress toward fusion, whether it’s to attract funding or readers, has undercut public support in the long run.</p>
<p>Today, in fact, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lockheed-claims-breakthrough-on-fusion-energy1/">various</a> media <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2017/1211/Fusion-breakthrough-explained-What-are-quarks-again">reports</a> continue to suggest a rash of fusion breakthroughs.</p>
<h2>Real advances</h2>
<p>Has there truly been some progress? To an impressive degree, yes. But mostly in terms of scientific and engineering research. If there is yet again another claim announcing that the world is now finally closing in on the solution to all energy problems, then myth is being sold in the place of truth.</p>
<p>Many scientists are drawn to both fission, the power source in today’s nuclear reactors, and fusion, because of the spectacular amount of energy they offer. The main fuel for fission, Uranium-235, has 2 million times the energy per pound that oil does. Fusion may deliver up to <a href="http://www.physlink.com/education/askexperts/ae534.cfm">seven times that or more</a>.</p>
<p>The fuel used for <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-global-uranium-deposits-last/">fission</a> is extremely abundant. The same goes <a href="https://www.iter.org/sci/fusionfuels">for fusion</a>, but without any long-lived dangerous waste. For fusion, the fuel is two isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium, the first of which can be extracted from seawater and the second from lithium, whose resources are <a href="https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2017-lithi.pdf">large and growing</a>.</p>
<p>Hence, the failure to pursue these colossal non-carbon sources might well appear to be colossally self-defeating.</p>
<p><a href="https://nuclear.duke-energy.com/2013/01/30/fission-vs-fusion-whats-the-difference">Fusion</a> is hard to harness, though. In stars, which are made of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94tReSbyPYc">plasma</a>, a high-energy state of matter in which negatively charged electrons are completely separated from positively charged nuclei, fusion takes place because of immense gravitational forces and extreme temperatures. </p>
<p>Trying to create similar conditions here on Earth has required fundamental advances in a number of fields, from quantum physics to materials science. Scientists and engineers have made enough progress over the past half century, especially <a href="https://www.euro-fusion.org/fusion/fusion-conditions/">since the 1990s</a>, to make so that building a fusion reactor able to generate more power than it takes to operate seems viable within two decades, not five. Supercomputing has helped enormously, allowing researchers to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2015-11-fusion-edge-supercomputer.html">precisely model</a> the behavior of plasma under different conditions.</p>
<h2>Reactor types</h2>
<p>There are two reasons to be optimistic about fusion right now. Two big fusion reactors are built or being built. And fusion startups aiming to build smaller reactors, which would be cheaper, easier and quicker construct, are proliferating. </p>
<p>One of the two big reactors is a donut-shaped <a href="https://www.iter.org/mach/Tokamak">tokamak</a> – a Russian acronym for a Soviet invention made in the 1950s that was designed to confine and compress plasma into a cylindrical shape in a powerful magnetic field. Powerful compression of the deuterium-tritium plasma at extremely high temperatures – as in about 100 million degrees Centigrade – causes fusion to occur.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-the-clean-power-that-will-take-decades-to-master-41356">ITER</a> (Latin for "the way”) is a collaboration between the European Union and the governments of India, Japan, South Korea, Russia, China and the U.S. This consortium is now spending more than US$20 billion to build a giant tokamak in <a href="https://www.iter.org/org/iterinfrance">southern France</a>. By 2035, it’s slated to generate 500 megawatts while operating on just 50 megawatts. Meeting that goal would essentially confirm that fusion is a feasible source of clean energy on a large scale.</p>
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<p>The other is a more complex, twisted donut <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-03-germany-fusion-device.html">stellarator</a>, called the Wendelstein 7-X, built in Germany with the same objective. Bends in its chamber twist the plasma so that it has a more stable shape and can be confined for greater lengths of time than in a tokamak. The 7-X cost about $1 billion to build, including site expenses. And if things go according to plan, it might be able to generate a significant amount of electricity by about 2040. </p>
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<p>Meanwhile, nearly a dozen startups are designing new kinds of reactors and power plants they say can come online long before and far more cheaply – even if the requisite technology isn’t there yet.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.cfs.energy/">Commonwealth Fusion Systems</a>, an MIT spin-off still tied to the university’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center and partially funded by the Italian oil company Eni, aims to create especially powerful magnetic fields to see if fusion power can be generated with smaller-sized tokamaks. </p>
<p>And <a href="http://generalfusion.com/">General Fusion</a>, a Vancouver-based venture Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is backing, wants to build a <a href="http://generalfusion.com/technology-magnetized-target-fusion/">big spherical reactor</a> in which hydrogen plasma would be surrounded by liquid metal and compressed with pistons to cause a burst of fusion. Should that work, this energy would heat the liquid metal to generate steam and spin a turbine generator, producing massive amounts of electricity. </p>
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<h2>Rich enough</h2>
<p>With lean operations and clear missions, these startups are nimble enough to move rapidly from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/technology/start-ups-take-on-challenge-of-nuclear-fusion.html">drawing board to actual construction</a>. In contrast, <a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/1031934/2013-iter-management-assessment.pdf">multinational complications</a> are costing ITER time and money.</p>
<p>Since future energy needs will be vast, having different fusion options available could help meet them however long they take. But other sources of non-carbon power are available.</p>
<p>That means fusion proponents must convince their funders around the world it is worth continuing to support this future option when other non-carbon sources, like <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/renewables2017/">wind and solar power</a> (and <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx">nuclear fission</a> – at least outside <a href="https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-nuclear-generating-statistics">the U.S.</a>, <a href="http://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/japan-nuclear-power.aspx">Japan</a> and the <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/european-union.aspx">European Union</a>) are scaling up or expanding. If the question is whether it’s worth making a big bet on a new non-carbon technology with vast potential, then the rapid growth of renewable energy in recent years suggests they were the <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/ny-times-funding-for-fusion-better-spent-on-renewable-sources-of-energy-that-are-likely-to-be-c6ea8398eaba/">better gamble</a>.</p>
<p>Yet if the roughly <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/wei2017/">$3.5 trillion invested in renewable power</a> since 2000 had all backed fission, I believe the advances in that technology would have led all remaining coal- and oil-fired power plants to have disappeared from the face of the Earth by now.</p>
<p>And if that same money had instead backed fusion, perhaps a working reactor would now exist. But the world’s wealthy nations, investment firms and billionaires <a href="http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2017">can easily support</a> fusion research and experimentation along with other options. Indeed, the dream of fusion power now seems certain to neither die or remain merely a dream.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93775/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As fusion becomes more technically viable, it’s time to assess whether it’s worth the money because breakthroughs in the lab don’t guarantee success in the marketplace.Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer, Jackson School of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/934482018-03-19T21:00:26Z2018-03-19T21:00:26ZFukushima seven years later: case closed?<p>On March 11, 2011, a <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/news/2011/NEWS-04.html">nuclear disaster struck Japan</a>. The 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake triggered a 15-meter tidal wave, which hit the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant approximately 45 minutes later. The plant’s power was knocked out and the backup generators crippled. After the emergency batteries were exhausted, three of the plant’s six reactors soon overheated, and at least two of the cores melted down, releasing <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Fukushima-accident">immense amounts of radiation</a>. While the reactors are now in theory stabilised, the work to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/19/science/japan-fukushima-nuclear-meltdown-fuel.html">understand and contain the damage continues</a>.</p>
<p>In the seven years that have elapsed since the disaster, much has been written and said about its causes. Yet expert reports have paid little attention to the extensive testimony of <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japanese-hero-who-saved-fukushima-plant-from-total-meltdown-dies-of-cancer-8698357.html">Masao Yoshida</a>, who was plant manager at the time and passed away in 2013.</p>
<p>One can only wonder about the decisions Yoshida had to make between March 11 and 15, 2011, to avoid the worst. And his gripping account calls into question some of the keystone principles of nuclear safety.</p>
<h2>A ‘made in Japan’ disaster?</h2>
<p>The international community and the Japanese themselves quickly characterized the disaster as one that was <a href="https://www.nirs.org/wp-content/uploads/fukushima/naiic_report.pdf">“made in Japan”</a>, meaning it was enabled by two circumstances specific to Japan: the country’s exposure to environmental hazards (earthquakes and tsunamis) and its cultural acceptance of collusion – real or imaginary – between corporations and government.</p>
<p>Management of the accident, both by its operator, the Tepco Group, and the Japanese government, has been <a href="https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1710-ReportByTheDG-Web.pdf">condemned as ineffectual</a>. Serious failings were attributed to Tepco, which was unable to prevent a nuclear meltdown and subsequent explosions. A rare bright point was the <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/10/09/national/remembering-fukushima-plant-chief-helped-prevent-catastrophe/">heroism of those working on the ground</a>, who risked their own lives to avert an even greater disaster.</p>
<p>Calling Fukushima a “made in Japan” disaster focuses attention on the failures of a socio-technical system apparently disconnected from industry good practices and the norms of the <a href="https://www.iaea.org">International Atomic Energy Agency</a> (IAEA). Moreover, its extraordinary scale allows it to be filed in the same historic category as another “aberrant” accident, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/26/chernobyl-nuclear-disaster-ukraine-marks-30th-anniversary">Chernobyl</a>. The latter was attributed to gross Soviet negligence, implicitly reinforcing a utopian vision of a safe and reliable nuclear industry. But do the nature of the Fukushima disaster and the specificity of its causes really make it an exception?</p>
<p>There have been a wide range of official inquiries. In Japan, reports were issued by both a <a href="http://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/icanps/eng/final-report.html">governmental investigation</a> and a <a href="https://www.nirs.org/wp-content/uploads/fukushima/naiic_report.pdf">parliamentary commission</a>. Investigations were also conducted by the <a href="https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1710-ReportByTheDG-Web.pdf">International Atomic Energy Agency</a> (IAEA), the American <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18294/lessons-learned-from-the-fukushima-nuclear-accident-for-improving-safety-of-us-nuclear-plants">Nuclear Regulatory Commission</a> (NRC), and the <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/pubs/2016/7284-five-years-fukushima.pdf">Nuclear Energy Agency</a> of the OECD.</p>
<p>These analyses chiefly focused on the impact of the earthquake and subsequent tsunami on the nuclear power plant, the way the crisis was managed by the operator and the authorities, and on the cooperation between those onsite (emergency services) and offsite (Tepco staff). Hundreds of thousands of pages of reports have been published as a result. Ultimately, authorities unanimously concluded that upholding IAEA norms alone guarantees nuclear safety.</p>
<p>But the majority of the thousand-plus hearings given by the people involved have remained confidential. This is troubling: Why would a democratic society allow hearings given to a parliamentary commission to remain secret?</p>
<p>During the Japanese government’s investigation, Fukushima Daiichi plant manager Masao Yoshida was interviewed for more than 28 hours, over 13 sessions. His testimony was only made public in September 2014 after critical reporting by Japanese media. Printed in Japanese on A4 paper, <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/09/11/national/yoshida-transcripts-on-fukushima-nuclear-crisis-released/#.WqqUSWduzEQ">it filled more than 400 pages</a>.</p>
<h2>Shedding new light on the story</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.carnot-mines.eu/en/carnot-mines-tv/%C3%A9conomie-management-soci%C3%A9t%C3%A9/crisis-and-risk-research-centre-crc-mines-paristech">Risk and Crisis Research Centre</a> of the Mines ParisTech engineering school <a href="https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715922">translated Yoshida’s testimony into French</a>, the first complete version in a language other than Japanese. (A <a href="http://www.asahi.com/special/yoshida_report/en/">partial English translation</a> exists, made available by the Japanese daily <em>Asahi Shimbun</em>, but it proved to be inaccurate on several crucial points, and is highly controversial.)</p>
<p>Given that <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/general/profiles/france.html">France generates 76% of its electricity with nuclear power</a>, the task of a complete translation should have been undertaken by a nuclear-sector operator. None volunteered, however, no doubt asserting that all had already been said and settled. The Fukushima investigators all followed a pre-set formula, apparently designed solely to confirm hypotheses that would put events down to purely technical causes. Yet Yoshida responded to the investigators’ questions from an entirely different point of view, attributing his decisions and actions to the brutal struggle between men (himself and his staff) and technology or, more precisely, the machines (the reactors) that had suddenly gone out of control.</p>
<p>The brutal reality of the situation in March 2011 was that it was no longer a question of managing a crisis, applying established procedures or rolling out plan A or plan B. Day after agonising day, the Fukushima Daiichi power plant was an island, plunged into darkness, without electricity or emergency diesel generators, and almost completely devoid of resources.</p>
<p>Largely left to their own devices, Yoshida and the plant’s staff risked their lives at every moment. Wearing stiflingly hot protective wear and buffeted by aftershocks, they searched for slightest sound or visual clue in the absence of measurement data. Groping around the labyrinth of the ruined plant, they sought, more or less with success, to protect themselves from radioactive contamination in order to continue their work.</p>
<p>During the hearings, Yoshida confided his fears, doubts and beliefs. He lauded the commitment of his colleagues inside the plant, even as he deplored the absence or incompetence of those outside – Tepco headquarters, the government, the regulatory authority, and so on.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210635/original/file-20180315-104642-rv78wt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">IAEA experts, charged with reviewing Japan’s plans for the Fukushima nuclear facility, leave Unit 4 in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8657963646/in/photolist-9qApwP-hkxzwj-qcinzK-qSYjtY-9ujHrk-GtmYaE-ajtMUQ-oYE8Rd-qhqLVD-hkyAsz-pXZski-ec5jXh-pga2Gv-reep8K-e2p1Zy-9ydk2c-9rwJeq-kUyVKv-dTSBAK-dTSBrn-kUAzpC-dTYeWG-dTSE7P-dTSAXx-dTSDcK-hTpLP4-e2igrB-h71KKV-kUxZBH-a1EUvT-e2oZTE-rataxS-dTSBER-dTYhu5-dTSCVx-dTSE2v-dTYfC1-dTYeLf-dTYeNN-dTSBRr-9re6DX-dTYhrm-dTSDUx-dTYgew-dTYf8u-dTYhbW-dTYhRu-dTSBnZ-dTYhq9-dTSCkT">IAEA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The emotional intensity of his account is both striking and moving. It shatters the all-too-bureaucratic certitudes that underestimate the complexities of situations, to the point of ignoring our humanity: the workers were facing the possibility of their own deaths and, above all, the deaths of their colleagues, their families and everything dear to them.</p>
<p>Almost miraculously, after four days of desperate efforts, the worst – the explosion of the Daiichi reactors, which could have threatened those at the close-by Daini and Onagawa plants as well – was narrowly avoided. Yet we have learnt almost nothing from this catastrophe, and the much larger one that was averted.</p>
<h2>Beyond safety margins</h2>
<p>Of course, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-12090-4_14">re-examining safety standards</a> is important, as are “hard core” safety systems (a kind of fortified line of defence against external onslaughts) and the costly installation of <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21555-can-diverse-power-backups-boost-nuclear-plant-safety/">diverse backup power generators</a>. Such measures certainly increase safety margins, but what about the bigger picture?</p>
<p>The creation of “special nuclear forces”, such as France’s <a href="http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-EDFs-emergency-response-force-in-place-1203144.html">nuclear rapid action force</a> (FARN), is a perfect example of such a mind-set. They are on-call to restore installations in accordance with regulations on radiation exposure. But what will such teams do if levels of radioactivity are above those set out in the legislation? Could we count on their commitment, as Japan did for that of Masao Yoshida and his staff, at once heroes and victims, sacrificed willingly or under orders, in order to prevent a nuclear apocalypse?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/">Fast for Word</a> and Leighton Walter Kille</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Franck Guarnieri ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>On March 11, 2011, a nuclear disaster struck Japan. Translated testimony by the power plant’s manager reveals how close the world came to a greater catastrophe – and how much there is to be learned.Franck Guarnieri, Directeur du Centre de recherche sur les risques et les crises, Mines Paris - PSLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/893132017-12-19T12:33:18Z2017-12-19T12:33:18ZWhy Kenya’s push for nuclear power rests on false or fanciful premises<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199880/original/file-20171219-27607-6xp5go.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High voltage electrical pylons on the outskirts of Kenya's capital Nairobi. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thomas Mukoya </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenya wants to go nuclear. Since 2012, Nairobi has been talking the talk and walking the walk. It has engaged the International Atomic Energy Agency and signed multilateral letters of intent in pursuit of nuclear power. </p>
<p>To date, Kenya reportedly has memoranda of understanding with <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">Russia, China, South Korea and Slovakia</a> which involve the building of four nuclear power plants with a total output of 4,000 MW. France is apparently also eyeing the potentially lucrative deals which would <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">nearly double</a> Kenya’s current electricity capacity. </p>
<p>Kenya’s Nuclear Electricity Board <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/news/iaea-approves-kenya-nuclear-power-application/">secured the global atomic energy agency’s approval</a> in 2016. It hopes to have the first plant online anywhere from <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">2022</a> to 2027, leading a new African push for nuclear power. The only country currently generating nuclear is South Africa.</p>
<p>Other African countries have signed agreements with foreign firms. These include Nigeria’s <a href="http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/energy/going-nuclear-africas-energy-future/">plans</a> to build plants with Rosatom, the Russian firm. South Africa is <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-presidents-last-ditch-effort-to-ram-through-a-nuclear-power-deal-87018">also pursuing a deal</a> for new nuclear power plants with the company as is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/663f5dd6-af72-36b7-a002-c27ab5b13a66">Egypt</a>. </p>
<p>In January, the international nuclear agency <a href="http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/energy/going-nuclear-africas-energy-future/">concluded</a> that Ghana had made “considerable progress in the development of its nuclear power infrastructure.” Uganda is also <a href="http://ugbusiness.com/4217/russia-likely-to-win-bid-for-ugandas-nuclear-energy-plans">reportedly</a> pursuing nuclear energy.</p>
<p>The cost of the Kenya plant is estimated at <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">Sh500 billion</a>. This is costly and, given the current energy consumption patterns in Kenya, would be a massive waste of money.</p>
<p>Kenya’s industrial and consumer demand, economic growth, relative poverty as well as the current grid and distribution network simply do not support this magnitude of power generation at such exorbitant costs. </p>
<h2>Myths about Kenya’s power situation</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/powering-africa">popular narrative</a>, Kenya suffers from the twin evils of electricity that is overly expensive and in short supply. Yet there is <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">strong evidence</a> that Kenya’s power is relatively cheap and that successive governments have exaggerated both it’s economic growth trajectory and its need for a massive increase in power generation. </p>
<p>For example, Kenya has an installed capacity of just over <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">2,400MW, against a peak demand of just over 1,600MW</a>. This is 800MW above peak hours demand.</p>
<p>While economies are required to have surplus power capacity, excess capacity can lead to higher power bills as consumers are often charged for idle power plants.</p>
<p>Thus the government, while promising ever cheaper power to consumers may actually be undercutting this promise in its pursuit of nuclear power plants and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312529345_Pipelines_Diplomacy_and_Power_An_Analysis_of_East_Africa%27s_Oil">other costly projects</a> that fail to reflect both industrial and private consumer demand.</p>
<h2>Note of caution</h2>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.lahmeyer.de/en/item/article/masterplan-for-power-generation-and-transmission-in-kenya-lahmeyer-advises-the-government.html">study</a> by a German engineering consultancy further confirmed how exaggerated government figures about demand have been. It noted that Kenya’s maximum power demand would </p>
<blockquote>
<p>grow 72% to 2,259MW by 2020 from the current 1,620MW, when projects such as the standard gauge railway start operating fully. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Government <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">estimates</a>, on the other hand, project peak demand will jump threefold to 4,755 megawatts in the three-year period. This is twice as much as the consultant’s estimates. </p>
<p>On top of this, Kenya’s problem isn’t that it needs more energy. Rather it needs to address distribution issues. </p>
<p>Any project involving the generation of more power needs to pay equal attention to Kenya’s grid and distribution system which currently can’t <a href="https://qz.com/702604/it-wasnt-just-a-monkey-that-brought-down-kenyas-entire-electricity-grid/">handle additional power</a>. This includes corresponding efforts at regular, systematic maintenance work. Without these, any extra power generated from renewable and other energy sources will remain costly and wasted.</p>
<p>Yet another note of caution is in order. Demand from Kenya’s domestic consumers remains low even though a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">total of 5.8 million customers</a> now have connections to power – a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">five-fold increase</a> in the past seven years.</p>
<p>Why is this the case?</p>
<p>Neither a lack of connectivity nor an unreliable supply is to blame for the low consumption of electricity by the vast majority of Kenyan consumers. Nor is it because of reportedly <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">relatively high electricity tariffs</a>. </p>
<p>Rather, it is simply because the majority of Kenyans still have low income levels. Many Kenyans simply <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235272851530035X">cannot afford</a> the luxury of modern appliances for cooking, heating or refrigerating. </p>
<p>This simple fact has neither been figured into government prognostications nor donor-driven last-mile connectivity scenarios. </p>
<h2>Grappling with reality</h2>
<p>Over two years ago, after Kenya signed an MOU with China to explore building a nuclear power plant, <a href="http://www.kenyaengineer.co.ke/2016-05-27-10-44-22/political-engineering/item/2093-why-kenya-should-avoid-the-nuclear-option">I argued</a> that sober analysis was required prior to walking further down that path. The situation remains the same today. </p>
<p>This is not a question of whether or not Kenya would be a responsible nuclear power producer. Indeed, all indications are that national nuclear electricity board (KNEB) and other relevant government agencies have acted scrupulously and responsibly. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, both the board as well as the international nuclear agency, the IAEA, should honestly conclude – and then publicly announce – that Kenya does not have a need for nuclear power. </p>
<p>Adding extremely expensive nuclear power to Kenya’s energy mix along with power from <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-the-new-government-should-do-to-help-kenya-meet-its-energy-needs-85436">other inadvisable projects</a> such as the Lamu coal power plant is arguably inexcusable as well as profligate. Lamu is expected to produce 5,000MW of power within a period of three years. </p>
<p>As such, Kenya needs to work overtime to set a power generation agenda that identifies real versus perceived needs. The country’s electricity agenda must not be driven by estimated consumption figures that fail to correspond to the true energy needs. <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">In the words of</a> a former Kenyan energy official, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It does not take much effort to notice the gap between what is on paper and the economic reality.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendon J. Cannon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kenya’s government, while promising cheaper power to consumers may actually be undercutting this promise in its pursuit of nuclear power plants and other costly projects.Brendon J. Cannon, Assistant Professor of International Security, Department of Humanities and Social Science, Khalifa UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/819592017-08-04T10:08:33Z2017-08-04T10:08:33ZThe economic black hole at the heart of the shift to electric vehicles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180727/original/file-20170802-1023-5lb3zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=505%2C49%2C3203%2C2054&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cactusmelba/4207815787/in/photolist-7pQa34-9mute5-SRBrjf-hJHZc8-acfekG-adGgAP-aSNMwc-bDUUHo-qs5DzG-WBNGTS-WTdxzs-6gAod4-TUmAwE-bKcMhD-a8UYmR-WTdBR3-8u3G2A-bstqfE-fE2ao8-bSezSa-byYm6Z-qi1JM9-TTfrxH-oqEVMe-Sgu2p7-6fDKnN-qexmRD-wD7vFY-kvH9Hr-qLXFve-9B9YYo-8e3wtL-btTRWd-WF93Pr-r966ry-rnFoHD-qVum3R-7DxUzj-ahajEn-bZhHk1-9jgzed-pXMvrb-9Rmu7D-9EqA24-bFcifK-qVumq4-qRnnWE-duQ4u1-qKj6Aw-8YQFnu">Jason/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol cars and vans from 2040 is perhaps the most significant policy announcement made by the UK government in the past decade (with the possible exception of Brexit). It feels like a key moment for the fight against pollution and climate change, but the shift from petrochemicals to electric vehicles will be disruptive and extremely expensive. The ramifications need to be considered systematically.</p>
<p>The issue that springs most immediately to mind is that the UK’s national taxation system will experience a major shock. The government <a href="https://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf">raised about £28 billion</a> from fuel duties over 2016/2017. It is the largest component of indirect taxation and pulls in about the same as tobacco, alcohol, gambling and vehicle duties combined.</p>
<p>The removal of diesel and petrol cars and vans will undermine this tax stream and it will need to be replaced. Tax on petrol and diesel currently accounts for <a href="http://www.admiral.com/newsletter/fuel-duty-freeze-do-we-really-feel-the-benefit.php">69% of the total price</a>. To put it in context, one year’s worth of fuel duty revenue pays for <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/state-pension-how-much-will-you-get/">more than 4m UK state pensions</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180685/original/file-20170802-20051-huys6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Charging more?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coventry-uk-november-15-2016-electrical-685655461?src=8ayg0j7tUE1bFb1XKG8UoQ-2-19">nrqemi/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Electric dreams</h2>
<p>One option to replace lost fuel duty might be a tax on electric vehicle charging. Currently, VAT on domestic energy consumption is charged at 5% – this will have to rise dramatically to cover the shortfall.</p>
<p>The government has been silent on this. The issue appears to have been taken for granted or perhaps overlooked. It may seem that 2040 is a long way off, and the transition <em>will</em> be softened by product lifecycles, but people’s vehicle buying habits will start to change long before deadline day.</p>
<p>A creative solution to the taxation deficit will have to be developed for every country pursuing a similar course.</p>
<p>Tax is not the only worrying unknown. The gradual replacement of more than 31m diesel and petrol cars with electric or autonomous vehicles represents a moment of transformation that is arguably more of a threat to the UK automotive industry than Brexit. </p>
<p>During 2017, electric car pioneer <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/tesla-passes-general-motors-to-become-the-most-valuable-us-automaker.html">Tesla’s market capitalisation</a> reached US$51 billion (£39 billion), briefly surpassed that of General Motors and is well above that of Ford. We are seeing the impacts of disruptive technologies on established and conventional automotive manufacturers. We simply don’t know how this will play out in a UK sector which <a href="https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/uk-automotive/">directly employs 169,000 workers</a> and which generates annual turnover of more than £70 billion, but which has little or no exposure to this new industry. Where is the UK or European version of Tesla?</p>
<h2>Grid lock</h2>
<p>The 2040 ban presents another huge problem too. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/council-tax-stock-of-properties-2017">25,410,360 houses and properties</a> in England and Wales will need to be rewired. The current system will not be able to cope. Charging two cars for daily commuting could destroy existing domestic wiring systems given the demand placed on the system. </p>
<p>That means all houses, and the grid feeding them, may need to be altered to ensure that they have the ability to cope safely with the demands of charging electric vehicles. This would be a major cost and create more disruption. </p>
<p>It is possible to plug a vehicle into 13-amp domestic wall socket, but the charge time would be 12 to 15 hours and it carries a fire risk if the plug is old or unsuitable for the high loads required. Dedicated 32-amp charging points could be installed with a charging time <a href="https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/charging-electric-vehicles-at-home/">of five to seven hours</a>, but does the UK have sufficient electricians to deal with all these alterations?</p>
<p>Those changes also assume there will be enough electricity in the first place. The UK has suffered from major under-investment in generation capacity <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publication.html?task=file.download&id=5722">for more than two decades</a>. As we stand right now, recharging millions of electric cars could result in blackouts and systemic failure across the grid. </p>
<p>This will require investment in additional generation capacity. Back in July, the National Grid <a href="http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1253/final-fes-2017-updated-interactive-pdf-44-amended.pdf">published a document</a> which studied various scenarios and predicted future demands on the system. One of those scenarios imagined all cars being electric by 2050, which could take peak demand from electric vehicles to 30 gigawatts. That is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-much-power-will-uk-electric-vehicles-need">about half current peak electricity demand</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180700/original/file-20170802-24880-1ruolhr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Generational change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/michaeljoakes/34731056111/in/photolist-UV4JYg-oAUHEQ-THTEbu-4MjXi9-VFEecu-X2sigN-aKHDBk-pnsAd5-bxt93q-oTnyM1-cZ5oPQ-V5rF8x-owmU6e-dBR11y-dzv4Kj-8GtNfE-oAUU9L-UtHunS-WEkGDn-oAUfyp-gbjc2X-TQ21UR-9QDSKc-gCrrBF-ND1Yu-aDf2u7-pPoVNc-efQygX-W4695R-Vdxpe3-6QbmvN-nyJzvd-qGgc4o-cVXCxm-V5qNJ6-chPye9-qfccNh-2gLkba-ND1YC-d6u4HJ-jAPEp9-ahwvZu-7Hpw9n-5JLkCv-bqnR5J-dMzGG9-dvMCTs-honq16-5XZLRw-G6y4VB">Michael Oakes/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rules of the road</h2>
<p>The fundamental questions just keep coming. Roads and pavements will experience a major upheaval as electric vehicle charging points are installed. And what will happen to the UK’s <a href="http://forecourttrader.co.uk/files/Fuel_Market_Review/FCT_Fuel_Mkt_Review_2012_low.pdf">8,500 filling stations</a>? Even if most become electric charging stations, they will have to be repurposed and decontaminated. There will also be a significant employment and economic loss as refineries close. This will affect the equivalent of 18,000 full-time jobs in Britain. More subtle changes will present themselves too. New approaches to etiquette will be needed – when can you use someone else’s charging point for free, or for a fee?</p>
<p>The ban will require a dramatic restructuring of the tax system alongside massive new capital investment in infrastructure. Our estimate here of £1 trillion is a calculation based on the cost of new electricity generation combined with the installation of charging points. It is a starting point for discussion. No one has yet calculated, or perhaps could calculate, the full cost of this simple policy statement. </p>
<p>It might be that vehicle use alters in a way that means many of the potential investments will not be required – car ownership may be replaced by a car version of city bike hire schemes perhaps. But there are only 23 years for the UK to adjust to what will be the most significant transport, infrastructure, electricity generation and tax revolution since the arrival of personal computing and the internet.</p>
<p><em>This article was amended on August 8 to remove an error in a calculation related to electricity demand. The paragraph has been replaced with an estimate from the National Grid’s July 2017 Future Energy Scenarios document.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Bryson receives funding from RCUK including the EPSRC/ESRC funded iBUILD project, the RCUK and Innovate UK funded Urban Living Birmingham project and the EPSRC funded Transition Birmingham project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tasos Kitsos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The implications, economic and otherwise, of this massive policy change are only beginning to sink in.John Bryson, Professor of Enterprise and Competitiveness, University of BirminghamTasos Kitsos, Policy and data analyst, City-REDI, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/752172017-03-29T19:20:56Z2017-03-29T19:20:56ZHazelwood power station: from modernist icon to greenhouse pariah<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163100/original/image-20170329-1642-1asoej8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hazelwood in happier times.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centre for Gippsland Studies</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The roar of the furnaces, the rattle of the conveyors, and the occasional whoop of a siren marked out both day and night at Hazelwood. The pungent smell of brown coal permeates the air, and the fine particles would work their way into your clothes, hair and shoes. </p>
<p>On quiet evenings you could hear it all the way over in the nearby town of Churchill, seven kilometres away. That distant hum has been a comforting one as the station produced power in all weathers, day and night, for more than five decades. For many in Churchill and the other coal towns of Victoria’s Latrobe Valley, the noise also represented continuity of employment for more than 450 workers. </p>
<p>Those old certainties are now disappeared. The eight units that make up the 1,600 megawatt power station were progressively decommissioned this week. All are now shut off ahead of Hazelwood’s official closure on March 31. While some 250 workers will remain, the distant hum has settled to a whisper.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163101/original/image-20170329-1642-1jgkd2t.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Noisy no longer: the turbine hall.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the brand-new Hazelwood power station was officially opened on March 12, 1971, it represented a new and confident future for the Latrobe Valley region and the state of Victoria. Plans for this major infrastructure project were first made in 1956 and the first contracts signed in 1959. The Victorian premier, Sir Henry Bolte, spoke of the Latrobe Valley as the “<a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/71769968?searchTerm=ruhr%20bolte&searchLimits=l-decade=195%7C%7C%7Cl-state=Victoria">Ruhr of Australia</a>”.</p>
<p>The first six generating units were constructed between 1964 and 1967. The plant was eventually expanded to include another two. All eight were operational by the time of the <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/media/UploadedDocuments/Hazelwood%20Closure/History/Hazelwood%20History%20Brochure.pdf">official opening in 1971</a>. </p>
<p>The station was fed by the Morwell open cut brown coal mine and was built right next door to the mine’s open-cast pit. The Morwell mine eventually grew to such mammoth proportions that the nearby Morwell River had to be <a href="http://www.gdfsuezau.com/hazelwood-closure/Hazelwood-History">diverted three times</a>. Each day, the mine fed more than 55,000 tonnes of brown coal into Hazelwood’s eight furnaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163137/original/image-20170329-22771-17g0tnt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alive no longer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Hazelwood station was planned, built and operated by the State Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV). This government-owned body was formed in 1921 and had overseen the development of the power generation network in the Latrobe Valley. </p>
<p>The first power station at Yallourn (now decommissioned) began providing Victoria with power in 1924. It was followed by further expansion at Yallourn with newer units that still operate today. The Morwell power station and briquette factory were completed in 1959 (and shut down in 2014). The nearby Hazelwood completed the picture by 1971. </p>
<h2>A postwar coal community</h2>
<p>These power stations, along with the Morwell and Yallourn coal mines, defined the industrial heart of the Latrobe Valley as part of a postwar push to create entire communities in the region, centred on the coal industry. The SECV and then the state government had a meticulously planned vision, deciding on the location of new developments and entire new towns. By 1981 electricity generation and mining employed <a href="http://www.australianhumanitiesreview.org/archive/Issue-November-2010/tomaney&somerville.html">more than 10,000 workers</a> in an overwhelmingly male-dominated workforce.</p>
<p>It had not all been plain sailing. Completion of the Morwell power station was delayed by financial constraints and then technical problems. Coal from the Morwell mine proved to be unsuitable for briquette manufacture, so the SECV reverted to using Yallourn coal in the briquette furnaces. </p>
<p>The SECV also met with considerable local criticism over its decision to close the planned township of Yallourn so as to dig out the coal underneath it. Polluted though it was, many Yallourn residents had no desire to leave their tree-lined community.</p>
<p>The new town of Churchill, built to house the industrial workforce and their families, would accompany the Hazelwood development. Churchill was a model town located to avoid the prevailing winds from existing power stations. The town was perched on a hill with views across the Latrobe valley, the distant <a href="http://parkweb.vic.gov.au/explore/parks/baw-baw-national-park">Baw Baw ranges</a> and newly created lakes of <a href="http://www.visitlatrobevalley.com/pages/hazelwood-pondage/">Hazelwood Pondage</a>. Churchill joined other new public housing developments in nearby Moe and Morwell to house the expanding workforce.</p>
<p>Yet life in the coal heartland came with its own problems. Issues with <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-842X.1998.tb01438.x/full">air quality</a> began to become evident as early as the 1970s, while the privatisation of Hazelwood and the other power stations from 1996 led to <a href="http://www.australianhumanitiesreview.org/archive/Issue-November-2010/tomaney&somerville.html">8,000 job losses</a>. A 2004 WWF report named Hazelwood as the dirtiest power station in Australia, producing the most greenhouse emissions per megawatt of energy. </p>
<p>Hazelwood became a powerful political symbol and rallying cry for those concerned about the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global warming. It has been credited with producing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2017/mar/28/powering-down-the-last-days-of-hazelwood-power-station-in-pictures">5% of the nation’s power and 3% of its carbon dioxide emissions</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163136/original/image-20170329-22782-wfub0n.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The symbolic face of brown coal power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Eklund</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The media image of Hazelwood today, its eight stacks standing as a visual image of greenhouse emissions and industrial pollution, was forged in the decade since the WWF report. Worse was to come when it became the site of a <a href="http://report.hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/">coalmine fire that blazed for 45 days</a> in February-March 2014. It showered Morwell with smoke and ash, creating <a href="http://hazelwoodhealthstudy.org.au/">a major public health disaster</a>. </p>
<p>The confident, modernist image of 1970s Hazelwood went up in smoke, but this image has not been forgotten by many in the Latrobe Valley who lived through it.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Federation University, through the <a href="https://federation.edu.au/faculties-and-schools/faculty-of-education-and-arts/research/fea-research-groups/centre-for-gippsland-studies/cgs-events">Centre for Gippsland Studies</a>, is planning to take part in a project to record the memories and experiences of Hazelwood workers. The author thanks Engie, who approved a site visit to research this article, and Mark Richards, a Hazelwood worker and CFMEU delegate who acted as a tour guide.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Eklund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hazelwood power station will this week fall silent after a half-century during which it went from a beacon of progress to an emblem of fossil fuel pollution.Erik Eklund, Professor of History, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/647282016-11-30T03:04:28Z2016-11-30T03:04:28ZFusion energy: A time of transition and potential<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147258/original/image-20161123-19692-yhks1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The plasma inside a fusion reactor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pppl.gov/node/3441/highresolution">Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For centuries, humans have dreamed of <a href="https://solarmaxtechnology.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/the-history-of-solar-power-solar-energy-in-ancient-times/">harnessing the power of the sun</a> to energize our lives here on Earth. But we want to go beyond collecting solar energy, and one day generate our own from a mini-sun. If we’re able to solve an extremely complex set of scientific and engineering problems, fusion energy promises a <a href="http://www.overlookpress.com/piece-of-the-sun.html">green, safe, unlimited source of energy</a>. From just <a href="http://www.ccfe.ac.uk/faq.aspx">one kilogram of deuterium extracted from water per day</a> could come enough electricity to power hundreds of thousands of homes. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, scientific and engineering research has <a href="https://www.iter.org/sci/BeyondITER">generated enormous progress</a> toward forcing hydrogen atoms to fuse together in a self-sustaining reaction – as well as a <a href="http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/giant-leap-for-nuclear-fusion-as-scientists-get-more-energy-out-than-fuel-put-in/">small but demonstrable amount</a> of fusion energy. <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a8914/why-dont-we-have-fusion-power-15480435/">Skeptics and proponents alike</a> note the two most important remaining challenges: maintaining the reactions over long periods of time and devising a material structure to harness the fusion power for electricity.</p>
<p>As fusion researchers at the <a href="http://www.pppl.gov/">Princeton Plasma Physics Lab</a>, we know that realistically, the first commercial fusion power plant is still at least 25 years away. But the potential for its outsize benefits to arrive in the second half of this century means we must keep working. Major demonstrations of fusion’s feasibility can be accomplished earlier – and must, so that fusion power can be incorporated into planning for our energy future.</p>
<p>Unlike other forms of electrical generation, such as solar, natural gas and nuclear fission, fusion cannot be developed in miniature and then be simply scaled up. The experimental steps are large and take time to build. But the problem of abundant, clean energy will be a <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/renewable-energy/public-benefits-of-renewable-power">major calling for humankind</a> for the next century and beyond. It would be foolhardy not to exploit fully this most promising of energy sources.</p>
<h2>Why fusion power?</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147824/original/image-20161128-22732-1e9j6q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adding heat to two isotopes of water can result in fusion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.americansecurityproject.org/fusion2020/about/">American Security Project</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fusion, two nuclei of the hydrogen atom (deuterium and tritium isotopes) <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a23829/fusion-explainer-kurzgesagt/">fuse together</a>. This is relatively difficult to do: Both nuclei are positively charged, and therefore repel each other. Only if they are moving extremely fast when they collide will they smash together, fuse and thereby release the energy we’re after.</p>
<p>This happens naturally in the sun. Here on Earth, we use powerful magnets to contain an extremely hot gas of electrically charged deuterium and tritium nuclei and electrons. This hot, charged gas is called a plasma.</p>
<p>The plasma is so hot – more than 100 million degrees Celsius – that the positively charged nuclei move fast enough to overcome their electrical repulsion and fuse. When the nuclei fuse, they form two energetic particles – an alpha particle (the nucleus of the helium atom) and a neutron.</p>
<p>Heating the plasma to such a high temperature takes a large amount of energy – which must be put into the reactor before fusion can begin. But once it gets going, fusion has the potential to generate enough energy to maintain its own heat, allowing us to draw off excess heat to turn into usable electricity.</p>
<p>Fuel for fusion power is abundant in nature. Deuterium is plentiful in water, and the reactor itself can <a href="https://www.iter.org/sci/FusionFuels">make tritium from lithium</a>. And it is available to all nations, mostly independent of local natural resources.</p>
<p>Fusion power is clean. It emits no greenhouse gases, and produces only helium and a neutron.</p>
<p>It is safe. There is <a href="http://fusionforenergy.europa.eu/understandingfusion/merits.aspx">no possibility for a runaway reaction</a>, like a nuclear-fission “meltdown.” Rather, if there is any malfunction, the plasma cools, and the fusion reactions cease.</p>
<p>All these attributes have motivated research for decades, and have become even more attractive over time. But the positives are matched by the significant scientific challenge of fusion.</p>
<h2>Progress to date</h2>
<p>The progress in fusion can be measured in two ways. The first is the tremendous advance in basic understanding of high-temperature plasmas. Scientists had to develop a new field of physics – <a href="http://www.pppl.gov/research/basic-plasma-science">plasma physics</a> – to conceive of methods to confine the plasma in strong magnetic fields, and then evolve the abilities to heat, stabilize, control turbulence in and measure the properties of the superhot plasma.</p>
<p>Related technology has also progressed enormously. We have <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.07.008">pushed the frontiers in magnets</a>, and electromagnetic wave sources and particle beams to <a href="https://www.iter.org/sci/PlasmaHeating">contain and heat the plasma</a>. We have also developed techniques so that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nphys3735">materials can withstand the intense heat</a> of the plasma in current experiments.</p>
<p>It is easy to convey the practical metrics that track fusion’s march to commercialization. Chief among them is the fusion power that has been generated in the laboratory: Fusion power generation escalated from milliwatts for microseconds in the 1970s to 10 megawatts of fusion power (at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory) and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.70.537">16 megawatts for one second</a> (at the Joint European Torus in England) in the 1990s.</p>
<h2>A new chapter in research</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under construction: the ITER research tokamak in France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iter.org/album/construction">ITER</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now the international scientific community is working in unity to construct a massive fusion research facility in France. Called <a href="https://www.iter.org/">ITER</a> (Latin for “the way”), this plant will generate about 500 megawatts of thermal fusion power for about eight minutes at a time. If this power were converted to electricity, it could power about 150,000 homes. As an experiment, it will allow us to test key science and engineering issues in preparation for fusion power plants that will function continuously.</p>
<p>ITER employs the design known as the “<a href="https://www.iter.org/mach">tokamak</a>,” originally a Russian acronym. It involves a doughnut-shaped plasma, confined in a very strong magnetic field, which is partly created by electrical current that flows in the plasma itself.</p>
<p>Though it is designed as a research project, and not intended to be a net producer of electric energy, ITER will produce 10 times more fusion energy than the 50 megawatts needed to heat the plasma. This is a huge scientific step, creating the first “<a href="https://www.iter.org/sci/PlasmaHeating">burning plasma</a>,” in which most of the energy used to heat the plasma comes from the fusion reaction itself.</p>
<p>ITER is supported by <a href="https://www.iter.org/proj/Countries">governments representing half the world’s population</a>: China, the European Union, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. It is a strong international statement about the need for, and promise of, fusion energy.</p>
<h2>The road forward</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147256/original/image-20161123-19712-u4gqkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A look inside the ITER tokamak reactor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://phys.org/news/2015-09-iter-superconductor-production-nears.html">ITER</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From here, the remaining path toward fusion power has two components. First, we must continue research on the tokamak. This means advancing physics and engineering so that we can sustain the plasma in a steady state for months at a time. We will need to develop materials that can withstand an amount of heat equal to one-fifth the heat flux on the surface of the sun for long periods. And we must develop materials that will blanket the reactor core to absorb the neutrons and breed tritium.</p>
<p>The second component on the path to fusion is to develop ideas that enhance fusion’s attractiveness. Four such ideas are:</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147257/original/image-20161123-19717-hq2tl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The W-7X stellarator configuration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:W7X-Spulen_Plasma_blau_gelb.jpg">Max-Planck Institute of Plasmaphysics</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>1) Using computers, optimize fusion reactor designs within the constraints of physics and engineering. Beyond what humans can calculate, these optimized designs produce <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/10/bizarre-reactor-might-save-nuclear-fusion">twisted doughnut shapes</a> that are highly stable and can operate automatically for months on end. They are called “stellarators” in the fusion business. </p>
<p>2) Developing new high-temperature superconducting magnets that can be stronger and smaller than <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.07.008">today’s best</a>. That will allow us to build smaller, and likely cheaper, fusion reactors.</p>
<p>3) Using liquid metal, rather than a solid, as the material surrounding the plasma. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4921153">Liquid metals do not break</a>, offering a possible solution to the immense challenge how a surrounding material might behave when it contacts the plasma.</p>
<p>4) Building systems that contain doughnut-shaped plasmas with <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0029-5515/56/10/106023">no hole in the center</a>, forming a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2014.03.072">plasma shaped almost like a sphere</a>. Some of these approaches could also function with a weaker magnetic field. These “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.07.008">compact tori</a>” and “low-field” approaches also offer the possibility of reduced size and cost.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.euro-fusion.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/JG12.356-web.pdf">Government-sponsored research programs</a> around the world are at work on the elements of both components – and will result in findings that benefit all approaches to fusion energy (as well as our understanding of plasmas in the cosmos and industry). In the past 10 to 15 years, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-small-fusion-energy-start-ups-conquer-the-problems-that-killed-the-giants/">privately funded companies have also joined the effort</a>, particularly in search of compact tori and low-field breakthroughs. Progress is coming and it will bring abundant, clean, safe energy with it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Prager receives funding, and has received funding in the past, for physics research related to fusion energy from the Department of Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael C. Zarnstorff receives funding from the US Department of Energy. He is affiliated with Princeton University, and is a member of the American Physical Society and the IEEE. </span></em></p>Fusion development takes time. It cannot be developed in miniature and then be simply scaled up. But we must work now, to make it possible to meet humanity’s need for abundant, clean energy.Stewart Prager, Professor of Astrophysical Science, former director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton UniversityMichael C. Zarnstorff, Deputy Director for Research, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/688092016-11-28T03:31:17Z2016-11-28T03:31:17ZWhy coal-fired power stations need to shut on health grounds<p>The <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Coal_fired_power_stations">Senate inquiry’s</a> report into the planned closure of coal-fired power stations will no doubt shed light on the compelling health reasons to close them.</p>
<p>Coal-fired stations are a health hazard to their local communities and beyond due to the pollutants they emit. The resulting illnesses are a significant cost to health budgets. Climate change caused by burning fossil fuels brings its own <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32124-9/fulltext">health burdens</a>.</p>
<p>A 2009 Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/Documents/Publications/Reports/Energy/ATSE%20Hidden%20Costs%20Electricity%202009.pdf">report</a> put the health costs of coal-fired power stations at A$13 per MWh of electricity generated from coal (about A$2.6 billion a year). Climate change and other environmental costs were not included.</p>
<h2>Pollutants and health</h2>
<p>The three main pollutants from coal-fired power stations are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and invisible particulate matter (known as <a href="http://www.npi.gov.au/resource/particulate-matter-pm10-and-pm25">PM10 or PM2.5</a>).</p>
<p>Collectively, they act as irritants and cause inflammation in the lungs leading to asthma, chronic lung disease, and restricted lung growth in children. The small particles (PM2.5 and smaller) are associated with lung cancer and are also absorbed through the lungs into the blood stream to cause <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4740122/">angina, heart attacks and strokes</a>.</p>
<p>Research <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(07)61253-7/fulltext">estimates</a> that 24 people die for every terawatt hours (TWh) of coal burnt. Children are at particular risk from air pollution because they breathe more for their body weight than adults.</p>
<p>In the Hunter Region of New South Wales there are many open cut coal mines and four active coal-fired power stations. The surrounding population has a higher incidence of the above diseases and has levels of ill health and mortality <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/research/units/boden/PDF_Mining_Report_FINAL_October_2012.pdf">not experienced elsewhere</a>. Air pollution from Hazelwood in Victoria, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-03/hazelwood-what-will-happen-if-power-plant-closes/7939460">to be closed in 2017</a>, causes <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/swiftparrot/pages/54/attachments/original/1447112859/Hazelwood_Report_Social_cost_of_carbon.pdf?1447112859">about 18 deaths a year</a>, around 1% of annual mortalities in Gippsland.</p>
<p>Pollutant levels emitted from the chimney stacks of each plant are reported annually and are publicly available from the <a href="http://www.npi.gov.au">National Pollutant Inventory</a>.</p>
<p>While pollution and its health hazards are greatest near power plants, particulates, with attached sulphur dioxide, can travel 100km or more. This can contribute to pollution in towns and cities, as seen in <a href="http://www.ansto.gov.au/AboutANSTO/MediaCentre/News/ACS049674">Richmond</a>, to the west of Sydney.</p>
<h2>Phased closures for health</h2>
<p>For the reasons above, the phased closure of power stations is urgent, and should occur over the next decade.</p>
<p>Ideally, the order of closure is based on <a href="http://dea.org.au/images/uploads/submissions/Retirement_of_coal_fired_power_stations_submission_11-16.pdf">intensity</a> of both carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution, and the rate at which renewable energy is encouraged to replace the plants.</p>
<p>On health grounds, the order for closure should be: Yallourn and Loy Yang in Victoria and for New South Wales, Mt Piper, Liddell, Bayswater, Eraring and Vales Point. Tarong in Queensland, with high levels of all pollutants, also needs to close early.</p>
<p>Governments have not provided any plans for new jobs and industries, for example in renewable energy, to facilitate closures. So, non-government organisations have stepped in.</p>
<p>Medical organisation, <a href="http://dea.org.au">Doctors for the Environment Australia</a>, has worked for the past five years on a plan with a coalition of community organisations in Port Augusta, South Australia.</p>
<p>That has included informing <a href="http://www.dea.org.au/news/article/illness_and_pollution_at_port_augusta_dea_speaks_at_the_parliament_of_south">local communities</a> of health risks, existing pollution-related illness, and poor air quality, as well as a plan for transition of their employment into <a href="http://dea.org.au/images/general/CST_Fact_Sheet_09-14.pdf">concentrated solar thermal</a> renewable energy.</p>
<p>Local council and Doctors for the Environment members delivered <a href="https://croakey.org/how-a-prescription-for-solar-thermal-treatment-changed-the-health-fortunes-of-a-whole-town/">more educational material</a> over coming months and years.</p>
<p>Publicising air quality reports helped the community to understand the hazard. Such initiatives helped energise the community to work for closure of the station and bring pressure for clean air and new employment opportunities.</p>
<h2>Monitoring emissions</h2>
<p>There are no <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/">safe levels</a> of air pollutants. So, the more stringent the emission guidelines, the greater the potential public health benefit.</p>
<p>Our submission to the Senate inquiry questions whether health interests were paramount when setting standards for air quality. For instance, it is not clear on health grounds why New South Wales and Queensland imposed <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/4f59b654-53aa-43df-b9d1-b21f9caa500c/files/mem-meeting4-statement.pdf">weaker pollution guidelines</a> than other states.</p>
<p>Monitoring should be subject to independent review, be transparent, immediately available and conducted by the state Environmental Protection Authority rather than power station operators.</p>
<p>In our experience, there is a lack of monitoring both air quality and of health impacts in exposed communities, for example in Lithgow and Lake Macquarie and close to many other power stations. Therefore local communities cannot adequately protect vulnerable groups, like people with asthma, by recommending reduced pollution exposure on high-risk days.</p>
<p>Many communities around power stations are aware of the threat of unemployment following closure and suppress the thought of ill health. However, as in Port Augusta, they need to understand their health risks, and most of all, risks to their children.</p>
<p>Experience suggests state and federal governments need to join with community organisations and the community itself to develop a plan for future closure of each station based on health gains, future industry development and employment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Shearman is Honorary Secretary, Doctors for the Environment Australia</span></em></p>Coal-fired power stations need to be closed within the next decade on health grounds. Here’s why.David Shearman, Emeritus Professor of Medicine, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/639102016-08-22T00:22:01Z2016-08-22T00:22:01ZKing Coal is dethroned in the US – and that’s good news for the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134522/original/image-20160817-3583-fdxuf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A number of coal plants in the U.S. are closing in response to competition from inexpensive and cleaner natural gas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/booleansplit/14664075014/in/photolist-okPdBy-qwa7DA-b2uEH-dZoWwU-99veZ1-aCjKDd-aCjKgy-aCh4SV-aCh5jx-aCjK9G-aCh56z-mh593-c9Y6XU-6PtEBZ-c9YauN-2TqNaP-eioScy-c9YbH7-c9Y85y-abDkzv-c9Ydfu-dt3tDk-ajDoVS-72gKPr-eioRr9-oGEndE-ajDiay-4n6VMQ-72kJuS-9LL7Wq-8GvAcN-5vYEgU-8CqAtP-66ZsgV-9ZASGc-8GvAxN-7mgiRM-6BJrBH-sRM4f-4LEwZm-4TrH1Z-o3KSAf-8XsRjk-8XvUHW-3t4jkK-4QXP1s-4e88jF-3ETPAU-5mtJa5-3t8QZW">booleansplit/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This is the worst year in decades for U.S. coal. During the first six months of 2016, U.S. coal production was <a href="http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec6_3.pdf">down a staggering 28 percent compared to 2015, and down 33 percent compared to 2014</a>. For the first time ever, natural gas <a href="https://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-33130767-13612">overtook coal</a> as the top source of U.S. electricity generation last year and remains that way. Over the past five years, Appalachian coal production has been <a href="https://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-36163135-13614">cut in half</a> and many coal-burning power plants have <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25272">been retired</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134308/original/image-20160816-13025-q0zi2j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>This is a remarkable decline. From its peak in 2008, U.S. coal production has declined by 500 million tons per year – that’s 3,000 fewer pounds of coal per year for each man, woman and child in the United States. A typical 60-foot train car holds <a href="http://www.bnsf.com/customers/equipment/coal-cars/">100 tons</a> of coal, so the decline is the equivalent of five million fewer train cars each year, enough to go twice around the earth.</p>
<p>This dramatic change has meant <a href="https://nicholas.duke.edu/about/news/shifts-electricity-generation-spur-net-job-growth-coal-jobs-decline">tens of thousands</a> of lost coal jobs, raising many difficult social and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-should-the-u-s-government-help-coal-communities-53475">policy questions</a> for coal communities. But it’s an unequivocal benefit for the local and global environment. The question now is whether the trend will continue in the U.S. and, more importantly, in fast-growing economies around the world.</p>
<h2>Health benefits from coal’s decline</h2>
<p>Coal is <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=82&t=11">50 percent carbon</a>, so burning less coal means lower carbon dioxide emissions. More than 90 percent of U.S. coal is used in electricity generation, so as cheap natural gas and environmental regulations have <a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Emansur/papers/cullen_mansur_gasprices.html">pushed out coal</a>, this has decreased the carbon intensity of U.S. electricity generation and is the main reason why U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26152">down 12 percent</a> compared to 2005.</p>
<p>Perhaps even more important, burning less coal means less air pollution. Since 2010, U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions have <a href="https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets">decreased 57 percent</a>, and nitrogen oxide emissions have <a href="https://www.epa.gov/airmarkets">decreased 19 percent</a>. These steep declines reflect less coal being burned, as well as upgraded pollution control equipment at about <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26972">one-quarter</a> of existing coal plants in response to new rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.</p>
<p>These reductions are important because air pollution is a major health risk. Stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, respiratory disease and asthma are <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/">all associated</a> with air pollution. Burning coal is about <a href="http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.101.5.1649">18 times worse</a> than burning natural gas in terms of local air pollution so substituting natural gas for coal lowers health risks substantially.</p>
<p>Economists have calculated that the environmental damages from coal are <a href="http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.101.5.1649">US$28</a> per megawatt-hour for air pollution and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/scc-tsd-final-july-2015.pdf">$36</a> per megawatt-hour for carbon dioxide. U.S. coal generation is down from its peak by at least <a href="http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_5.pdf">700 million megawatt-hours</a> annually, so this is $45 billion annually in environmental benefits. The decline of coal is good for human health and good for the environment.</p>
<h2>India and China</h2>
<p>The global outlook for coal is more mixed. India, for example, has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22652">doubled</a> coal consumption since 2005 and now exceeds U.S. consumption. Energy consumption in India and other developing countries has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/08/08/what-the-heck-is-happening-in-the-developing-world/">consistently exceeded</a> forecasts, so don’t be surprised if coal consumption continues to surge upward in low-income countries.</p>
<p>In middle-income countries, however, there are signs that coal consumption may be slowing down. Low natural gas prices and environmental concerns are challenging coal not only in the U.S. but around the world, and forecasts from <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/ieotab_7.pdf">EIA</a> and <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2016/bp-energy-outlook-2016.pdf">BP</a> have global coal consumption slowing considerably over the next several years.</p>
<p>Particularly important is China, where coal consumption <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16271">almost tripled</a> between 2000 and 2012, but more recently has slowed considerably. Some are arguing that China’s coal consumption may have <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2777.html">already peaked</a>, as the Chinese economy shifts away from heavy industry and toward cleaner energy sources. If correct, this is an astonishing development, as China represents <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/ieotab_7.pdf">50 percent</a> of global coal consumption and because previous projections had put China’s peak at 2030 or beyond.</p>
<p>The recent experience in India and China point to what environmental economists call the “<a href="http://econweb.ucsd.edu/%7Ejandreon/Publications/JPubEKuznets.pdf">Environmental Kuznet’s Curve.”</a> This is the idea that as a country grows richer, pollution follows an inverse “U” pattern, first increasing at low-income levels, then eventually decreasing as a country grows richer. India is on the steep upward part of the curve, while China is, <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-chinas-coal-use-peaked-heres-how-to-read-the-tea-leaves-55611">perhaps, reaching the peak</a>.</p>
<h2>Global health benefits of cutting coal</h2>
<p>A global decrease in coal consumption would have enormous environmental benefits. Whereas most U.S. coal plants are equipped with scrubbers and other pollution control equipment, this is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Retrofitting-CoalFired-Power-Plants-Final.pdf">not the case</a> in many other parts of the world. Thus, moving off coal could yield much larger reductions in sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and other pollutants than even the sizeable recent U.S. declines.</p>
<p>Of course, countries like China could also install scrubbers and keep using coal, thereby addressing local air pollution without lowering carbon dioxide emissions. But at some level of relative costs, it becomes cheaper to simply start with a cleaner generation source. Scrubbers and other pollution control equipment are expensive to install and expensive to run, which hurts the economics of coal-fired power plants relative to natural gas and renewables.</p>
<p>Broader declines in coal consumption would go a long way toward meeting the world’s climate goals. We still use globally more than <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/table4-1.cfm">1.2 tons</a> of coal annually per person. More than <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/ieotab_13.pdf">40 percent</a> of total global carbon dioxide emissions come from coal, so global climate change policy has correctly focused squarely on reducing coal consumption.</p>
<p>If the recent U.S. declines are indicative of what is to be expected elsewhere in the world, then this goal appears to be becoming more attainable, which is very good news for the global environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Davis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How bad are things for U.S. coal? Very bad, but that’s very good for environment. Now the question is whether other countries will cut back on coal as well.Lucas Davis, Associate Professor, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/514402015-12-03T11:06:38Z2015-12-03T11:06:38ZThe latest bad news on carbon capture from coal power plants: higher costs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103784/original/image-20151130-10246-p6ue5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renewable sources of energy are already more cost-competitive than coal-fired power plants with carbon capture.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/rpeschetz/468847030/">rpeschetz/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coal powered much of the industrial revolution and continues to fuel economic growth in developing nations, including China and India. </p>
<p>The dark side of coal, however, is that it generates large quantities of the heat-trapping greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide (CO2), that lead to climate change. This CO2 pollution is in addition to other emissions from coal burning that lead to <em>thousands</em> of <a href="http://fortune.com/2014/11/05/the-cost-of-chinas-dependence-on-coal-670000-deaths-a-year/">premature deaths</a> per day around the world.</p>
<p>It was once thought that the CO2 emissions from coal power stations could be controlled by burying CO2 underground economically. However, our recent analysis published in the journal <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.5b03052">Environmental Science & Technology</a> shows that the concept of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will be significantly more expensive than previously thought because previous studies miscalculated the energy required. As such, it’s unlikely to provide an economically viable solution to CO2 pollution from coal-based power generators.</p>
<h2>Coal and global carbon budget</h2>
<p>As countries think about possible ways to cut their greenhouse gas emissions at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/paris-2015">UN Climate Summit in Paris</a>, developing a strategy to curb emissions from coal will be essential to taking meaningful action on climate change.</p>
<p>Globally, the use of coal for heat and electricity accounted for over 14 billion metric tonnes (gigatons) of CO2 emissions in 2014 according to the <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2014.pdf">International Energy Agency</a>. This comprises about one-third of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103786/original/image-20151130-10269-1dc0ekm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal being unloaded from a cargo train in India. China and India collectively have more than 175 gigatons of coal reserves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">nicksarebi/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Atmospheric concentration of CO2 today is about 400 parts per million (ppm). Our analysis shows that if today’s coal power plants continue operating through the end of their expected service life, they would collectively emit 260 gigatons to 350 gigatons of CO2 by 2050, which would increase CO2 concentration by another 13-18 ppm.</p>
<p>Scientists have recommended that CO2 concentration needs to stay within <a href="http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/ipcc/ipcc/resources/pdf/IPCC_SynthesisReport.pdf">430-480 ppm</a> to avoid dangerous interference with the climate (defined as two degrees Celsius rise in temperature relative to preindustrial revolution). Coal use in existing power plants alone will thus consume about a third to a half of the remaining “carbon budget” that humanity has to avoid reaching that threshold.</p>
<h2>CCS to the rescue?</h2>
<p>Acknowledging the importance of coal in world economic growth alongside the need to reduce CO2 emissions has led to great interest in “Carbon Capture & Sequestration” (CCS) technology. </p>
<p>Prominent studies such as <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5686/968.short">Pacala and Socolow</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6064/53.short">Williams et al</a>, and <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6277">Hertwich et al</a> suggest a suite of strategies to meet the CO2 challenge. Notably, all these studies assume the widespread deployment of CCS. For example, Hertwich et al project that CCS would contribute to nearly 85% of global CO2 emission reduction by 2050.</p>
<p>CCS essentially involves keeping CO2 out of the atmosphere by capturing the CO2 produced from fossil fuels, compressing it under high pressure, and then transporting it via pipelines or ships for storage in the deep ocean or underground geological reservoirs. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kigGiWQw8E8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How post-combustion carbon capture and storage technology works.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are no large-scale CCS power plants (defined as more than 500 megawatts of power) currently in operation, and most of our understanding of the technology comes from pilot-scale plants in the 1990s and subsequent scientific models of the capture process.</p>
<p>Capturing the CO2 from the exhaust of coal power plants requires energy in the form of steam and electricity. Because some energy is used for CO2 capture, CCS reduces a power plant’s electric power output and/or increases its fuel input. This creates an “energy penalty” for power plants that increases their operating costs. In addition, there is the large capital costs of building the CCS system.</p>
<p>Previous <a href="http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/NETL-Retrofits-Overview-2014-01-09-rev2.pdf">studies</a> typically estimated that the fuel cost of coal power plants capturing 90% of their CO2 emissions would increase by about 30%-60%. However, data emerging from recent pilot or <a href="http://www.powermag.com/saskpower-admits-to-problems-at-first-full-scale-carbon-capture-project-at-boundary-dam-plant/">small-scale commercial CCS plants</a> have consistently indicated that in reality the energy penalty and fuel costs are much higher. So why the discrepancy?</p>
<h2>The numbers don’t add up</h2>
<p>To understand why the estimates from earlier pilot studies and models don’t align with more recent observations about the energy penalty and costs of CCS, we decided to revisit some of the assumptions and calculations in the CCS energy analysis and economics literature.</p>
<p>Our research, which was funded by the US National Science Foundation, showed that the fuel costs of coal-fired power plants can increase by up to 136% with the addition of a CO2 capture plant. That is, the fuel costs, which dictate the marginal cost of electricity generation (and consequently profits) for a power plant, would <em>more than double</em> in a CCS future.</p>
<p>In our analysis, we quantified the CCS “feedback loop,” which created a more accurate estimate of the energy penalty. The feedback loop arises because the excess fuel burnt to generate additional electricity and steam for CCS itself creates CO2 that must be captured and stored. Capturing this CO2 in turn requires more fuel, which again creates more CO2. Although previous studies had defined an energy penalty, they ignored this obvious feedback loop, with the result being a gross underestimation of CCS costs.</p>
<p>We traced the confusion to how a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0360544291900035">1990s pilot study</a> was interpreted within the CCS energy and economic literature. That pilot study reported that the power output of their 513 megawatt power plant dropped to 336 megawatts because of the carbon capture equipment added on. That corresponds to a 35% energy penalty, meaning it takes 35% more energy to produce to the same megawatt of power when carbon is removed from the fuel.</p>
<p>Discrepancies with the actual energy penalty arose when subsequent studies used this 35% energy penalty number without fully incorporating its underlying assumptions – that is, as plants capture more carbon, they need to burn more fuel to capture more carbon. </p>
<p>This added energy translates directly into costs. When the constant fuel input is considered, the required steam for carbon capture can be about 40%-60% of the total steam produced in the power plant’s boiler. Since this steam cannot be used to generate power, it means lost revenue and a profit penalty for the power plant operator.</p>
<h2>Renewables look better</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that CCS is more expensive compared to other forms of low-carbon power generation than previously thought.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=655&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=655&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104146/original/image-20151202-22476-zw4j0q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=655&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity costs for different energy sources, broken down by capital, operation and maintenance, and fuel costs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Supekar and Skerlos (2015), DOI 10.1021/acs.est.5b03052.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once the energy penalty of the feedback loop is figured in, we found renewables such as wind and solar photovoltaics are already more cost-competitive than coal with CCS. And projections show wind and solar will <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf">continue to become cheaper</a>.</p>
<p>Natural gas, which generates about half the amount of CO2 than coal for every unit of power it produces, could also provide a cheaper alternative to coal both with and without CCS.</p>
<p>Keeping the coal in the ground is not only the most economical way of reducing carbon emissions, it is a sure way to save thousands of lives every day due to cleaner air. It is a classic case of “prevention,” through decarbonization of energy systems, being better and cheaper than the “cure” of CO2 capture.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarang Supekar receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Skerlos receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>New analysis reveals carbon capture at coal power plants is significantly more expensive than thought, making renewables and natural gas power generation more attractive.Sarang Supekar, Postdoctoral Fellow in Mechanical Engineering , University of MichiganSteve Skerlos, Professor, Mechanical Engineering; Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/512102015-11-25T11:25:01Z2015-11-25T11:25:01ZExplainer: what is solar thermal electricity?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102997/original/image-20151124-18264-36vkb9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Desert troughs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/69471202@N07/6317443431/in/photolist-aCisif-qfpeL1-aCfxQt-aCigaq-aCfzGK-aCirFo-aCfMDT-q1fQh8-qhvntB-qhFeU2-aCidjo-aCijvC-aCijYC-aCfMRx-aCim5j-aCicP9-aCfxcz-aCiczw-aCfH5k-aCihfh-aCiehm-aCimXQ-aCiuiJ-aCitn7-e4Ssox-aCfACV-aCfN66-aCicf9-aCfKPK-aCieRd-aCfw8e-aCfyF2-aCfLZp-aCigXY-aCifk9-aCitAQ-aCidZW-aCfKBB-aCfL5R-aCfLsp-aCfNUn-aCfExp-aCfFCK-aCibHW-aCfzfR-aCfA4X-aCfGtK-dNMH2j-7WbYh7-cRQro3">Green Prophet</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A large solar thermal electricity plant <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34883224">will soon begin operating</a> near Ouarzazate, Morocco, which will reportedly bring energy to a million people when fully complete. But what is solar thermal electricity and how does it differ from the method used to generate power from the solar panels you might be more familiar with?</p>
<p>The Moroccan plant uses large mirrors in the form of parabolic troughs (as in the picture above) to concentrate sunlight onto a fluid flowing through a pipe at the focal point of the trough – where all the light is reflected; a parabola is used because this shape focuses the incoming beam to a single line. </p>
<p>The heat collected from this process generates steam, which can be used in a conventional steam turbine system to make electricity. In contrast to the <a href="http://siser.eps.hw.ac.uk/research/solar-thermal/low-solar-thermal-energy">low-temperature solar thermal systems</a> that are used for air or water heating in domestic or commercial buildings, these solar thermal electricity plants operate at high temperatures, requiring both concentrated sunlight and a large collection area, making the Moroccan desert an ideal location.</p>
<p>This is an alternative approach to the <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/learning/re_photovoltaics.html">more widely used “photovoltaic”</a> technology for producing electricity from sunlight. In a photovoltaic system, the sunlight is absorbed in the photovoltaic device (commonly called a solar cell) and energy is passed to electrons in the material, converting the solar energy directly into electricity. Sometimes, solar thermal electricity and photovoltaics are portrayed as competing technologies and, while this may be true when deciding on the way forward for a specific site, in general they are complementary, using solar energy as extensively as possible. </p>
<h2>Ability to store energy</h2>
<p>Currently, the main advantage of a solar thermal electricity system is the ability to store heat which can be used later to generate electricity. This allows the system, at least in part, to disconnect electricity generation from solar energy collection for periods in time. This addresses one of the most challenging aspects of the widespread use of solar energy: variability due to changing weather conditions and, of course, the period of darkness in each 24-hour period when no solar energy is available. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103047/original/image-20151124-18230-1773oi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The usual PV sort.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/big-stew/20072316232/in/photolist-wzHSiN-5osbAu-abmSBd-aFf55C-abj4NX-aFbgUZ-fLPte3-54SkCz-9LkEjb-cbaitb-8N26oV-7dPMk8-77NYU3-gXXFsU-phCnoG-dH1sn6-6wpzBL-dH6Lz1-9iYu4L-7iVBZh-eFJdWh-7H911c-h7ELtU-8KqkEq-8KngZD-6Htihq-qFGqU3-3eczkW-76utcD-a1S32L-evi2Wf-5Dvpjw-aCYkQJ-fjMegc-rdudfN-7yWYyn-aoktwC-7HcUry-azjNdG-7EMViv-61Aj7V-bL32Nk-pfCqc3-8KqkF9-7iRKwz-ysPFAs-54WqEN-6nYpqN-54WtGb-av4SSL">Stewart Donohoe</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For efficient storage, the system generally uses a molten salt with a high melting temperature, typically around 500-600°C, which is heated by the solar energy. Most recent plant designs have integrated storage, including the plant in Morocco, which reportedly can store enough heat for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/morocco-poised-to-become-a-solar-superpower-with-launch-of-desert-mega-project">three hours of generation</a> at the rated power level each evening. As the plant increases in size from this first phase, more storage will be possible. In comparison, for a photovoltaic system to generate outside sunlight hours, electricity would need to be stored in a battery or alternate system, and this is generally less efficient.</p>
<h2>Some disadvantages</h2>
<p>There are disadvantages to the solar thermal electricity system. First, it requires direct sunlight, since it is not possible to concentrate the diffuse light that is scattered by the atmosphere. This means these systems are restricted to locations where there is a high proportion of clear days, such as Morocco. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103045/original/image-20151124-18230-1r62pl7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can’t put a solar thermal plant just anywhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/toffiundkamera/8576258417/in/photolist-e4RyQr-pV6GW4-yxK2ZS-dJtd2e-dNc4WK-zNpNDY-xTj1V1-9eQHbE-4ndAW2-gdgTQN-p7CvPz-bBvUhA-mA8aG-6bjzJx-8aTP8b-7umKGB-8ptP2e-8ptSBV-5QwQbj-pokYSP-5QwQdw-96q1sd-5Qsxkg-5zovh8-qhhNp7-bWR2vU-5zotd2-yR7H3k-a2QeiG-mWwSyz-5zsLBN-9eBvmu-dgjscD-qWKuk3-7ecaMV-8px5pU-5zpXSr-5zpY9P-5QsBmZ-5QwPyJ-7s7AUj-8vzSC6-6MnwkD-5QsBfp-j7BAh-vC3X8-vC3Yd-5QwLgN-5QwPvs-suYd9o">Christopher L.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, most photovoltaic systems can utilise all sunlight, so are much better suited to a wider range of climates – although concentrating photovoltaic systems, which use lenses or mirrors to focus sunlight onto high efficiency solar cells, also require direct sunlight. </p>
<p>Second, solar thermal systems need to operate at high temperatures, both for steam generation and to ensure high thermal efficiency. This means that the system needs to be physically large to collect all the solar energy required. The photovoltaic system, meanwhile, can be operated efficiently in a range of sizes, from very small (to fit on a domestic roof) to vast (plants rated in the hundreds of megawatts). </p>
<p>Third, solar thermal electricity systems are currently more expensive than photovoltaic systems of a similar size. This is partly due to there being a larger market for photovoltaic systems – <a href="http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ihs--272-gw-of-solar-installs-from-2016---2019_100021902/#axzz3sQBHk9so">around 180GW of photovoltaics</a> are installed worldwide compared to 5GW of solar thermal electricity (a typical fossil-fuelled power station is around 1GW in size). However, costs can be expected to fall as experience and the size of the market grow.</p>
<p>There are potential challenges, too: ensuring the mirrors accurately track the sun, keeping them clean, and the need for water (for cleaning and in the generation system). But all these aspects are being addressed in the evolution of system designs.</p>
<p>Solar thermal electricity systems are an exciting technology for harnessing solar energy, to sit alongside the low temperature solar thermal systems for heating and the photovoltaic systems for electricity generation in a wide range of applications. Which one of these is the best choice depends on what you want to do with the energy and where the system is going to be located – ultimately, we will need all of them to substantially contribute to the world’s energy supply.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicola Pearsall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A large solar thermal plant in Morocco will provide energy for 1m people – here’s how it will work.Nicola Pearsall, Professor of Renewable Energy, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/495772015-11-12T11:01:10Z2015-11-12T11:01:10ZCanada could shed its split personality on climate change at Paris talks<p>Canada, paradoxically, is a leader in climate change mitigation at the same time as being one of the world’s laggards. It carries both legacies as its delegates prepare to attend the COP 21 climate change conference in Paris later this month – but with a very different government in charge.</p>
<p>The problem over the past 10 years or more has been that we Canadians have tended to show the ugly side of our face to the world. On top of withdrawing from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011, there have been endless debates about pipelines to transport crude from the <a href="http://www.anl.gov/articles/argonne-analysis-shows-increased-carbon-intensity-canadian-oil-sands">carbon-intensive</a> oil sands and other government policies that have softened environmental protection. </p>
<p>Canada’s intended emissions reduction pledge going into COP 21 has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-climate-target-is-a-smokescreen-and-full-of-loopholes-42167">criticized</a> as being weak relative to the European Union, although it stands up against other industrialized countries.</p>
<p>On the flip side: British Columbia has successfully implemented a <a href="http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/tp/climate/carbon_tax.htm">revenue-neutral carbon tax</a> and Ontario has <a href="http://e360.yale.edu/feature/how_ontario_is_putting_an_end_to_coal-burning_power_plants/2635/">phased out</a> coal-powered electricity generation, joining Quebec and California in a carbon-trading market to further reduce emissions. </p>
<p>At the urban scale, former Mayor David Miller of Toronto was chair of the C40 global climate action group of big city mayors. With respect to R&D on low-carbon technologies, Canada is a world leader in important areas such as <a href="https://www.concordia.ca/research/zero-energy-building.html">net-zero energy buildings</a>. Very significantly, Canada has cleaner, lower-carbon sources of electricity than most other nations, largely due to an abundance of hydropower. </p>
<p>The burning question is whether the newly elected Liberal government can draw upon Justin Trudeau’s hope and positivity to transform Canada’s climate file – and our relationship with the rest of the world. As a sign of the change, Trudeau’s cabinet includes a <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/11/09/canadas-new-environment-minister-backs-climate-change-science-in-paris.html">minister of Environment and Climate Change</a>, while previous Prime Minister Stephen Harper was a well-established <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-lagging-on-climate-change-a-political-liability-49574">friend of the oil and gas industry</a>.</p>
<h2>Much more to do</h2>
<p>While it seems unlikely that the Liberal government will change Canada’s intended emissions reduction commitment going into the Paris meeting, it is possible that our position coming out of the conference could be substantially different than what it might have been under former Prime Minister Harper. </p>
<p>I argue there are two levels on which the Liberals can make a difference. First, to improve upon Canada’s proposed commitment to cutting emissions, the Liberals should look beyond carbon financing and market-based mechanisms to consider further regulatory approaches, while leveraging government spending on infrastructure. Second, if Trudeau is bold, he could cut through the global gridlock on greenhouse gas emissions pledges by encouraging other world leaders to put extra focus on decarbonizing electricity supplies.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101140/original/image-20151107-16239-n3cjtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tar sands in Alberta: bitumen contains oil that can be removed in a more polluting process than conventional oil wells.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/howlcollective/6544064931/in/photolist-aYh3vH-r2P69j-ufTvft-ufKYAB-tj1xgg-tiKf9b-ufoyoN-tiRdwk-tX3fS3-tYazRY-tYbChL-tYhsyX-ufzvGd-tiTTNc-tiYaQq-tYg7ES-ug1M9e-tiXQq3-ug88Y8-ufyYuo-tj8DPc-tYiV7V-ufRtWF-kDwHyR-kDBs8b-tiZg5R-thnXSb-uexFM6-8k4DSx-tiRKp2-tY86XU-thF92L-ufxUMW-thJ2Fy-kDuuLk-kDuC4r-kDtRkD-8BiMmC-6XCD7G-8BiMoN-8BiMtW-7HDaZ4-6XyG3P-kDCXuq-ufv5PW-tYnvGm-ucj9Fh-8jzTsn-8jzTXT-tiRMj5">howlcollective/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It should be stated that achieving Canada’s proposed emissions reduction pledge of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030 is not necessarily easy. The <a href="http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=974959">plan</a> to achieve the goal involves regulation that will halve the fuel consumption and emissions of cars and light trucks from 2008 to 2025, with improvements to heavy trucks too. </p>
<p>Further regulations will be used to reduce emissions from the oil-and-gas sector, fertilizers and chemicals, especially hydrofluorocarbons which contribute to global warming. Having already banned the construction of new coal-fired electricity generation, Canada has been considering <a href="http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=974939">regulation</a> to address the efficiency of natural gas-fired electricity generation. </p>
<h2>National carbon price?</h2>
<p>Before being elected, Trudeau had already declared an intent to follow some of the provinces by <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-vows-to-adopt-carbon-pricing-if-liberals-win-election/article22842010/">putting a price on carbon nationally</a>. This may well be a worthwhile strategy, but the Liberals would be wise not to get too caught up in debates over <a href="http://www.env-econ.net/carbon_tax_vs_capandtrade.html_">cap-and-trade versus carbon taxes</a>. The reality is that to make the sort of reductions in emissions that are required will likely require carbon to be priced at rates like the Swedish carbon tax at approximately US$150/metric ton – more than five times higher than that in British Columbia. The bigger question is whether Canadians will accept carbon prices that are high enough to be effective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101141/original/image-20151107-16242-natpw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada has a relatively low-carbon electricity supply because of its heavy use of hydropower.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aeriel_picture,_Revelstoke_Dam.jpg">Arsenikk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are further regulatory measures and investment strategies that the Liberals could use in seeking to exceed the initial pledge of 30% emissions reduction. Building codes, for example, could be further enhanced – pushing for yet higher energy efficiency standards, toward net-zero buildings. </p>
<p>The Liberals’ election pledge to increase infrastructure investment in Canadian cities and communities also provides opportunities that the previous government failed to grasp. The infrastructure dollars can be tied to action on climate change, with an emphasis, for example, on low-carbon public transit vehicles, electric vehicles and higher standards of energy efficiency in public housing.</p>
<p>Canada could also be far more proactive in exploiting its remarkably low-carbon electricity supply. Most of the Canadian provinces – including the three most populous: British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec – rely extensively on hydropower, other renewables and some nuclear in the case of Ontario. This is potentially a huge economic advantage for Canada as we move to a carbon-constrained world. </p>
<p>Electricity is also the key sector for reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally. Electricity already accounts for about 30% of emissions in developed countries, and global electricity use will continue to rise, as it is strongly linked to economic growth. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2014/">Electrification</a> is the most important strategy for deep decarbonization. This involves replacing fossil-fuel powered engines and furnaces, for example, with electric devices such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however, are only reduced if the electricity comes from suitably low-carbon sources – such as we have in most Canadian provinces.</p>
<h2>Pushing cleaner electrification</h2>
<p>At COP 21, countries will be negotiating over their future permitted total national GHG emissions, using metric tons of CO2 equivalents emitted by a country as the most important measurement.</p>
<p>Elsewhere <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n3/full/nclimate2494.html">I have argued</a> that there is another universal metric – the carbon intensity of electricity supply – that nations should also use to inform their progress in addressing climate change. The carbon intensity is the amount of emissions produced per unit of electricity generation. </p>
<p>Canada could go beyond merely touting that we are a world leader in clean electricity generation; it could make pledges to further reduce the carbon intensity of electricity supply – and encourage others to follow suit. </p>
<p>When Justin Trudeau goes to Paris, we can expect him to do a far better job at communicating the positive side of Canada’s actions to address climate change. That said, there is no hiding from the fact that Canada has among the world’s highest GHG emissions per capita. </p>
<p>To be seen favorably in the eyes of the world, Canada will have to go beyond its 30% pledge – and perhaps the Liberals can do that by leveraging its platform on infrastructure spending. But Trudeau potentially could go further – extending Canada’s position as a generator of low-carbon electricity as an input for negotiations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Kennedy receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada to research on low carbon cities, infrastructure and buildings in a global context. </span></em></p>New Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau brings a very different face to climate talks in Paris. Will it project its oil extraction tradition or show global leadership on emissions cuts?Christopher Kennedy, Professor of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/456772015-08-04T18:13:02Z2015-08-04T18:13:02ZFour things that you should know about the EPA Clean Power Plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90803/original/image-20150804-11999-oko6d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Now regulated for carbon emissions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/89545244@N03/8569718518/in/photolist-e4h3Ky-a4Rg33-6Xz2Rt-7fPE9v-a3Tyfw-okPdBy-NZMvj-PxoJa-dGFCs-4tNaFB-jmSVUo-6PTx9x-6SMry8-jGjdgM-7yXdPs-6jJko4-bD8hKH-jzafuK-b7BhF-9AyRh4-5uQyKS-j65SPQ-9p3fhZ-zXQN4-9csBg6-9yE9gH-9ouoxs-hHo7c-9zRogi-4B11e8-bk5t8E-6yUeQP-4e4xhC-jBRW4x-9p2Hsw-jpXwFF-iiWAo8-qPYxpd-63NeUj-vyVL-6wrLqJ-9xSWWe-e3BW9E-fmYcT5-a1ecna-9o12JA-7egxnG-6VJXqq-5nCcEv-6SMD1X">Ismo/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on August 3 released the final rule of the <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan">EPA Clean Power Plan</a>, regulations that limit carbon dioxide emissions from power plants in the US. </p>
<p>In the days and years ahead, the<a href="https://theconversation.com/obama-builds-legacy-on-climate-change-with-epa-clean-power-plan-45641"> Clean Power Plan</a> will loom large, both as it works its way through legal challenges and at states as they implement their plans to reduce power utility emissions. </p>
<p>Here are four key points about the plan from my perspective as an agricultural economist. </p>
<p><strong>1. Action on climate is important.</strong> Greenhouse gases are <a href="http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/">warming the planet</a>, and broad-based international action is needed. It is a significant step to see the US finally taking action in a way that could influence international efforts to reduce emissions.</p>
<p><strong>2. The overall approach in the Clean Power Plan is <a href="http://www.robertstavinsblog.org/2014/06/19/what-are-the-benefits-and-costs-of-epas-proposed-co2-regulation/">economically reasonable.</a></strong> Greenhouse gas emissions are what economists call uniformly dispersed; a pound of CO2 from Sacramento or Singapore has the same effect as a pound from Miami or Madrid. So an economically efficient policy reduces emissions where it can be done most cheaply. The Clean Power Plan includes numerous provisions that seek to reduce costs. Most prominently, it encourages states to take a cap-and-trade approach in which one polluter could reduce its emissions below its limit, generating credits that could be sold to another polluter that needs to emit above its initial limit. This creates an incentive for innovation, generates savings, and makes it possible to pursue a more aggressive climate goal.</p>
<p><strong>3. This was not Plan A.</strong> Concern about climate change has existed for decades and environmentalists have been pressing for a law to address climate change. The closest the US came to substantive federal legislation was the Waxman–Markey Bill, which the House passed in 2009, but the Senate did not pass a companion bill. </p>
<p>As late as 2010, most observers felt that the EPA did not have the authority under the Clean Air Act (CAA) to implement an economically efficient climate change policy. </p>
<p>The Clean Power Plan is an innovative and yet-to-be-tested interpretation of Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. It is controversial, not only because of the fact that there are two conflicting versions of this <a href="http://www.masseygail.com/pdf/Tribe-Peabody_111%28d%29_Comments_%28filed%29.pdf">section of the act</a>, but also because 111(d) focuses not on emissions but on what are called “<a href="http://www.epa.gov/ttnatw01/landfill/app_g.pdf">standards of performance</a>.” The agency worked around this by first defining rate-based goals, or reductions in CO2 per megawatt-hour, and then converting those to mass-based goals in tons of CO2, which offer more flexibility and are more amenable to trading. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90805/original/image-20150804-12023-omjny4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Supreme Court obliged the EPA to regulate carbon emissions if they were found to be harmful, as they were. But the Clean Power Plan now faces a barrage of legal challenges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/307639437/in/photolist-tbJue-pLFihs-9sMTg8-pwoRPY-ct5639-xj8dC-cjK4o3-fUJT36-3P99ph-a7Ttts-5Y3htE-pLGztn-eXMwpm-btfutY-pVDtsm-oXcPWR-6xavfj-APqHp-oXceR9-peG69R-9sMQEz-oXcUFm-7YWhrB-djzBuH-conrr3-cjK2zL-z5HAY-etjK2-mFPdVW-6K2mxv-ro6AW6-6YsKD3-aofJU-9sMMC6-4bD4UB-byuha4-my1QAP-5Vnu54-eWs9A5-6x6kmn-6x6kaD-5acLkp-4Q42k7-aFfq3j-9s8LrU-H587R-aC9aKG-rufcPC-5ncCKb-7tLNFt">Kubina/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the lawyers at the EPA are convinced that they’re on solid legal ground, Congress’s inaction on passing federal laws to lower carbon emissions forced the EPA to shoehorn a regulatory approach to climate policy onto the CAA. As a result, it is not certain that the policy will withstand legal challenges.</p>
<p><strong>4. To some extent, the EPA had to act.</strong> The Supreme Court’s 2007 decision in <a href="http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/06pdf/05-1120.pdf">Massachusetts v the EPA</a> required the EPA to “ground its reasons for action or inaction” on greenhouse gases. Since science strongly indicates that <a href="http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/">CO2 is a harmful pollutant</a> and Congress failed to act, the EPA had little choice but to treat CO2 as a pollutant that falls under the CAA. The administration deserves credit for choosing to take serious (<a href="http://350.org/press-release/clean-power-plan-is-significant-but-not-enough/">though many still argue inadequate</a>) steps and to push the limits of the action, and for doing so in a way that is relatively cost-effective.</p>
<p>Overall, the CPP is a significant step forward for the US and one that doesn’t appear to be that expensive. </p>
<p>The EPA estimates that the CPP will increase electricity prices by only <a href="http://www.epa.gov/airquality/cpp/cpp-final-rule-ria.pdf">a few percent in 2020 and less than one percent in 2030</a>. Given those low costs, not only should we hope the plan passes legal muster, but we should be pushing the next administration to go even further.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45677/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Woodward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How the US ended up regulating carbon emissions using the 1970 Clean Air Act rather than a national cap-and-trade emissions trading system.Richard Woodward, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/386572015-03-12T21:52:01Z2015-03-12T21:52:01ZA simple rule change can save billions for power networks and their customers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/74611/original/image-20150312-13502-1iu2675.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C4%2C1486%2C988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Money spent on helping consumers reduce demand means less money spent on substations and other infrastructure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AForest_Hill_Substation.jpg">Bidgee/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the interminable <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-power-privatisation-stop-the-sell-off-claims-put-to-the-test-38099">electricity privatisation debate</a> rolls on, more important issues about the future of Australia’s electricity industry are being overlooked. </p>
<p>Electricity consumption is <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report">trending down</a>, while solar power is <a href="http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses">steadily increasing</a>. Lights, appliances and buildings are becoming more efficient, and battery energy storage and electric vehicles are expected to proliferate. </p>
<p>In short, dirty centralised power is in decline and cleaner, smarter, decentralised energy is in the ascendant. </p>
<p>It sounds encouraging, but we are at a turning point. The development of a cleaner, more affordable and sustainable energy future depends crucially on what happens next. Will our energy companies seek to embrace or delay decentralised energy? </p>
<p>This hinges on whether they choose to adopt a new scheme which you might not have heard of, but which could potentially reduce households’ annual power bills by hundreds of dollars while also helping energy firms manage the move to decentralised energy.</p>
<h2>Changing tack</h2>
<p>Since 2008, the <a href="http://www.aer.gov.au">Australian Energy Regulator</a> (AER) has given our electricity network businesses strong regulatory incentives to build infrastructure. The more poles, wires and substations they built, the bigger their “asset base”, and the bigger their profits. It is no surprise, then, that in the past five years Australian networks have spent more than ever on infrastructure – hence why electricity prices have <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6401.0Dec%202014?OpenDocument#Time">doubled between 2007 and 2014</a>.</p>
<p>The new scheme could change all that – assuming that our energy regulators are ready to face the future. The <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/">Australian Energy Market Commission</a> (AEMC), which <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Energy-Rules/National-electricity-rules">sets the rules</a> for the industry, is considering a change to support decentralised energy. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://aemc.gov.au/Rule-Changes/Demand-Management-Embedded-Generation-Connection-I">Demand Management Incentive Scheme Rule Change</a> would require the AER to give the network business incentives to help customers cut their electricity demand. Submissions on the rule change proposal close on <a href="http://aemc.gov.au/getattachment/5f4c7ae0-939e-43b5-9866-3a89fc255242/Notice-%E2%80%93-19-February-2015.aspx">19th March 2015</a>.</p>
<h2>What will the new rules mean?</h2>
<p>“Demand management” is where a power company invests in helping consumers to save energy or reduce demand, rather than building more capacity in the form of power stations, power lines and substations. <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Media/docs/Final-report-1b158644-c634-48bf-bb3a-e3f204beda30-0.pdf">Research commissioned by the AEMC</a> estimates the potential consumer savings at between A$4 billion and A$12 billion, which translates to annual household bill reductions of A$120 to A$500.</p>
<p>Demand management is not new. Off-peak hot water tariffs have been offered in Australia since the 1930s. More recent examples include:</p>
<p>• the <a href="https://www.energex.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/199262/Form-8804-Demand-Management-at-Energex.pdf">Positive Payback</a> scheme offered by Energex in southeast Queensland, which rewards customers for buying and using energy-efficient air conditioners, pool pumps and other appliances. More than 40,000 households have signed up, helping to reduce the network’s peak summer demand by more than 100 megawatts.</p>
<p>• a scheme that will see New York electricity supplier Consolidated Edison <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/con-eds-200m-distributed-energy-plan-gets-the-green-light">spend US$200 million (A$260 million) on batteries, energy efficiency and load reduction</a> in order to defer US$1 billion of network upgrades.</p>
<p>There are many <a href="http://www.efa.com.au/Library/David/Published%20Reports/2010/InternationalBestPracticeinEEandDSMforNetworkSupport.pdf">other examples around the world</a>, but still relatively few in Australia.</p>
<h2>The case for changing the rules</h2>
<p>The rule change was <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/Media/docs/Final-report-1b158644-c634-48bf-bb3a-e3f204beda30-0.pdf">recommended by the AEMC</a> in 2012 to help rein in the massive spending on network infrastructure. </p>
<p>If the rule change is not adopted, the AER will probably not provide meaningful incentives for demand management. Networks will be discouraged from undertaking demand management and instead be encouraged to continue their past practice of building infrastructure and maximising profits. </p>
<p>Fixed charges for network services are likely to rise and variable charges for energy will fall. There will be fewer incentives to support energy efficiency, peak load management and local generation. This will give consumers less control over their energy bills and make energy efficiency, solar panels and batteries less attractive. </p>
<p>It will lock Australia into an outmoded, centralised model of electricity generation, at a time when technology and market trends all point towards more decentralised energy. </p>
<h2>Friend or foe?</h2>
<p>Our energy utilities have seldom been so subject to criticism. <a href="http://www.ewon.com.au/ewon/assets/File/Publications/Annual_Reports/EWON-AR-FINAL-WEB.pdf">Complaints </a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-19/electricity-and-gas-disconnections-reach-a-five-year-high/5978200">disconnection rates</a> have spiked, power companies have found themselves in court over issues ranging from <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-08/energy-australia-fined-1m-over-door-to-door-sales-practices/5375972">misleading marketing practices</a> to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-15/black-saturday-bushfire-survivors-secure-record-payout/5597062">bushfires</a>, and green groups have run <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/photosandvideos/videos/Whats-your-energy-company-really-up-to-/">television ads attacking the “dirty three”</a> power companies. </p>
<p>In this context, it is not surprising that the Queensland and New South Wales governments have struggled to convince voters to let them privatise poles and wires. But the fundamental issue is not who owns the electricity industry, but how we ensure that it operates in the public interest.</p>
<p>With the recent hike in electricity prices, the rise of decentralised energy and the need to rapidly decarbonise our energy, it is crucial that our networks are trusted consumer and the community partners. We rely on the network companies to keep the lights on and restore power after blackouts. We should be able to rely on them to keep power affordable and sustainable.</p>
<p>As a <a href="http://aemc.gov.au/getattachment/d028d147-6731-467c-8194-2f5075c13b53/TEC-commissioned-supplementary-report-%E2%80%93-Restoring.aspx">2013 ISF report</a> has noted, effective demand management incentive schemes have been established in dozens of places overseas. The report found that savings from demand management in Australia are less than half the average rate of the United States, (and much less than in leading US states like California and New York). Moreover, the bulk of savings in Australia have been delivered in just one state: Queensland, where the state government has actively supported the idea. </p>
<p>Back in the 1970s, before privatisation, the State Electricity Commission of Victoria ran a memorable <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8PlKAFFCRE">television advertisement</a>, featuring a square-jawed electricity linesman venturing out into a wild, stormy night to restore power to cold, darkened homes. Its message was summed up by the soundtrack of James Taylor singing “You’ve got a friend”. </p>
<p>The outcome of the DMIS Rule change proposal will determine whether this is still true in the coming years.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Are electricity networks still our friend?</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney undertakes paid sustainability research for a wide range of government, NGO and corporate clients, including energy businesses. Chris Dunstan also serves as the part time Chief Executive of the Australian Alliance to Save Energy, a not for profit alliance of business, government and research organisations dedicated to promoting the economic and environmental benefits of saving energy and decentralised energy technologies. </span></em></p>Incentives for cutting peak power demand are cheaper than building ever more infrastructure and sending power bills ever higher. The industry has a chance to embrace this new approach - but will it?Chris Dunstan, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/334642014-11-05T19:23:09Z2014-11-05T19:23:09ZWhy Australia’s entire power sector should support the RET<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63712/original/mmccvyk4-1415164637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Falling demand and prices are leaving no incentive to invest in Australia's electricity sector.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/indigoskies/9618748827"> Indigo Skies Photography /Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been much talk about how uncertainty over the future of the Renewable Energy Target (RET) is affecting the renewable energy industry. </p>
<p>Investment in renewable energy is at its <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/is-this-the-death-of-australias-renewable-energy-industry-83477">lowest level</a> since 2002, while a Baker and McKenzie and Clean Energy Council report released in October argued uncertainty over the RET was undermining the industry. </p>
<p>Renewable company Pacific Hydro also recently saw a <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/ifm_investors_accept_write_down_dBvTiJ97KwLrvXDDVGppcL">A$685 million write-down</a> in its value, while Australia’s largest wind tower producer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-23/wind-turbine-producer-axes-100-jobs-after-ret-changes/5835516">cut 100 jobs</a>. Both were linked to uncertainty over the RET. </p>
<p>The Coalition government has announced its position: to reduce the Renewable Energy Target to a “real 20%” — or 20% of the expected electricity demand in 2020. This will result in a cut to around 27,000 gigawatt hours from the current target of 41,000 gigawatt hours. </p>
<p>But with demand falling and a significant oversupply of electricity, the RET is vital for stimulating investment in the electricity sector, not just renewables. </p>
<h2>No room in the electricity sector</h2>
<p>At the moment, there is a massive split between the proponents of renewables development and those who see increased penetration of renewables as a threat to their business. </p>
<p>Opponents appear to have the upper hand, with the government pushing to have the 20% target reduced to a “real” target that would be much lower.</p>
<p>The arguments to reduce the Renewable Energy Target are many-fold. They run something like this: </p>
<p>The target was set when electricity demand was expected to continue rising indefinitely. Therefore there was room for both renewable and fossil fuel sources. </p>
<p>This is no longer true as demand has actually been declining since 2008-09. It took another three to four years for the industry and government to accept that the end of demand growth had occurred and may continue indefinitely. </p>
<p>It is difficult to overstate how unusual and important this is for companies operating in a competitive environment. How many companies can thrive in a market where customer demand is falling?</p>
<h2>Tough times for fossil fuels</h2>
<p>Those supporting reduction of the target, or its complete elimination, argue that with no growth in electricity demand the current target 20% or even a “real 20%” is unnecessary and damaging. </p>
<p>Damaging to whom? To those companies that own and operate coal and gas-fired power stations. The argument is that the decline in electricity demand in combination with the roll-out of RET-driven generation, mostly wind, has resulted in lower wholesale electricity prices than expected. </p>
<p>At just over <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Data/Price-and-Demand/Average-Price-Tables/Monthly-Price-Tables?year=2014">A$30 per megawatt hour</a> over the months since the repeal of the Carbon Price, wholesale spot prices are now at <a href="http://www.aer.gov.au/node/23196">near historical lows</a>. This is indeed making it tough for most fossil fuel plants.</p>
<p>The underlying problem for the wholesale price is twofold: firstly, with the more generation capacity you have in general, the more downward pressure there is on the price. </p>
<p>This is exacerbated by wind generators. Like most current large-scale renewable technologies, wind is not easily controllable and has no fuel requirements. This means operating costs are zero, and economic incentives allow them to run in preference to other power plants.</p>
<p>Hence those that operate fossil plant prefer to see less renewable generation in the market, while those specialising in building, owning and operating renewable plant will be squeezed severely if the target is revised downwards.</p>
<h2>Review paralysis</h2>
<p>The problem for investment in the renewable sector is more complex. As all investment in this sector is policy-driven, ongoing reviews with suggestion of changes to the parameters of the policy are painful. They paralyse decision making and planning. </p>
<p>This is because renewable projects rely on revenues from selling renewable certificates (so-called LGCs), as well as from collecting electricity spot market revenue.</p>
<p>The electricity market, and particularly the Australian electricity market, is the most volatile commodity market in the world. </p>
<p>On top of this, renewable projects rely on selling certificates into a traded market, hence the value of the subsidy they receive is subject to supply, demand and market sentiment. The renewable certificate market price is thus also a very volatile one, as volatile as the global crude oil price, for example. </p>
<p>Derivative market hedging does not help much as contracts have a maximum tenure of three years, while the lifetime of the project can be up to 30 years.</p>
<p>Note that the declining electricity demand is also hurting renewable projects’ viability as well as fossil fuel incumbents. This may not have been such a problem had we still had the carbon price but now without RET policy certainty there is a major problem. </p>
<p>Moreover, benefits for consumers are not at all certain in the long term as incumbent operators have the option of mothballing/decommissioning plants, partially offsetting downward pressure on prices due to falling demand.</p>
<h2>The RET is dead, long live the RET</h2>
<p>In the environment of declining demand and the prospect of new technologies such as PV panels, increased consumer engagement, electric vehicles and smart grids, this tension between the renewable industry and the incumbent generation sector is unnecessary. It is clear that both would benefit from a strong renewable target. </p>
<p>Why? As demand is shrinking, all players need a policy that stimulates investment. Without the RET, there will be no incentive to build any power plants at all! The market is oversupplied and will continue to be for perhaps another seven to ten years.</p>
<p>Taking advantage of the RET and the other new technologies is the only way modern electricity utilities can innovate, grow and successfully compete in a rapidly changing environment. Freezing the RET would be a false win for its opponents.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariel Liebman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s been much talk about how uncertainty over the future of the Renewable Energy Target (RET) is affecting the renewable energy industry. Investment in renewable energy is at its lowest level since…Ariel Liebman, Director of Energy and Carbon Programs, Senior Research Fellow, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.