tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/rick-perry-1221/articlesRick Perry – The Conversation2019-12-15T13:34:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280752019-12-15T13:34:19Z2019-12-15T13:34:19ZTrump will cling to power — and Republicans will cling to him<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306706/original/file-20191212-85412-n4zc49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=278%2C48%2C2692%2C1436&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon. And that's why he'll never willingly leave office in 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(The Associated Press)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon.</p>
<p>Nixon was a bully, a cynic and a crook who did all kinds of damage to American politics and society, <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/vietnamization">not to mention to Cambodia and Vietnam</a>, too. And yet he had a sense of obligation to his office — and to the Republican Party, a venerable institution that <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/free-soil-free-labor-free-men-9780195094978?cc=ca&lang=en&">got its start</a> in the 1850s by opposing the spread of slavery.</p>
<p>And so in August 1974, after the congressional leadership of the Republican Party <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/gop-unlikely-reprise-role-it-played-nixons-1974-exit">told him</a> that they wouldn’t stand for the Watergate cover-up, Nixon got on a helicopter and flew out of history.</p>
<p>This is not how the Trump era will end.</p>
<h2>Moving right</h2>
<p>The year 1977 marks a watershed in the modern history of the American right, a moment of departure from the kind of Republican Party that eventually rejected Nixon.</p>
<p>That year, the Cato Institution was formed in Washington to peddle <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-conservatives-misread-and-misuse-milton-friedman/2012/07/27/gJQAcrISEX_story.html">free-market fundamentalism</a> as the answer to America’s ills. Also that year, a group of fundamentalist Christians built <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/us/focus-on-the-family-transforms-its-message.html">Focus on the Family</a> to uphold traditional patriarchy as God’s command. And a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-nras-true-believers-converted-a-marksmanship-group-into-a-mighty-gun-lobby/2013/01/12/51c62288-59b9-11e2-88d0-c4cf65c3ad15_story.html">fringe group</a> within the National Rifle Association turned what had been an apolitical hunters’ organization into a hyper-aggressive lobbying group for arms manufacturers and their most angry customers.</p>
<p>These groups shared a <a href="https://www.indiebound.org/book/9780520305557">grand narrative</a> of America, in which rugged individualists and virtuous families built the country with Bibles in one hand and guns in the other. The protagonists in this story were of course white, just like the great majority of the people in these movements. </p>
<h2>From Reagan to Bush</h2>
<p>During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan drew these forces into an upbeat nationalism. America’s mission, he told the faithful, was to defeat godless Communism at home and abroad. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reagan practised an upbeat form of conservatism. He’s seen here in the Oval Office in 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Scott Stewart)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The subsequent collapse of the Soviet empire vindicated his take-no-prisoners approach — and the more extreme voices on the right, whose “think tanks” and pressure groups now formed a vast echo chamber impervious to political debate.</p>
<p>When Bill Clinton came to office in 1992, he hoped to appeal to centrist Republicans as a pro-business “New Democrat” from a southern state. Instead, a new wave of right-wing figures in Congress and beyond accused the Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/23/us/1992-campaign-republicans-bush-georgia-questions-clinton-s-vision-family.html">of all kinds of perversions</a> and impeached Clinton over his unseemly sex life, resulting in some bizarre political theatre. </p>
<p>Although these tactics narrowed the Republicans’ appeal, the party returned to the White House when George W. Bush squeaked out an electoral victory in early 2001. This kept the extremists within the party, for the moment.</p>
<h2>Off the rails</h2>
<p>In the wake of terrorist attacks later that year, Bush briefly rose to Reaganesque stature with the economic and religious right, even though <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/13/politics/bush-rebukes-lott-over-remarks-on-thurmond.html">he scolded and disappointed white nationalists</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bush, with Rudy Giuliani, then the mayor of New York City and now embroiled himself in the Trump impeachment scandal, is seen at Ground Zero of the 9-11 attacks in September 2001.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Doug Mills)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while Reagan’s crusade against Communism had ended in global victory, Bush’s war in Iraq ground <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/SRE.htm">to a bloody stalemate</a>. And as the recession of 2008 cast a dreary pall over America, Barack Obama rose to power <a href="https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/episode/obama-legacy-hope-and-change-achievements-and-setbacks">by promising hope and change</a>. </p>
<p>Although he, too, was a New Democrat in economic terms — his signature health-care law stemmed <a href="https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2017/02/looking-at-the-conservative-heritage-of-some-core-aca-features/">in part</a> from another conservative think tank — Obama embodied the liberal vision of a multi-racial nation within a complicated world.</p>
<p>As president, he described his views on touchstone issues such as gay marriage <a href="https://time.com/3816952/obama-gay-lesbian-transgender-lgbt-rights/">as “evolving”</a> and sought middle grounds with old enemies like Cuba and Iran.</p>
<p>In response, the far right took over the Republican Party, using not only think tanks and radio shows but also alt-right websites and chat rooms that became safe spaces for virulent racism.</p>
<h2>Moderates were targeted</h2>
<p>Extremists in the so-called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tea-Party-movement">Tea Party movement</a>, which <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-tea-party-paved-the-way-for-donald-trump/">paved the way</a> for today’s Make America Great Again supporters, targeted moderate Republicans while Fox News hosts and “shock jocks” called Obama a Marxist and terrorist sympathizer. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this April 2009 photo, a Tea Party protester holds a doctored picture of Obama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Bazemore)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When Obama cruised to a second term against Mitt Romney, millions of Republicans turned to a helter-skelter politics of rage and paranoia — and into the arms of Trump, a vulgar demagogue of huge appetites and thin scruples.</p>
<p>Once again, this shrank the Republican Party’s field of voters to older, whiter and more conservative audiences. Against the uninspired campaign of Hillary Clinton, however, Trump <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/11/08/donald-trump-never-had-mandate-america">stumbled into the White House</a> with 46.1 per cent of the popular vote. </p>
<h2>Toward November</h2>
<p>Although most Americans don’t like him, Trump <a href="https://www.axios.com/trumps-approval-rating-republicans-partisan-a57662f1-b81d-493e-be90-48a3eeced360.html">has an 80 per cent approval rating</a> among Republicans. He uses this popularity, along with his Twitter feed, to bully Republican dissidents into silence.</p>
<p>In any case, the Republicans now have little choice but to double down on their far-right vision of America, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/13/voter-suppression-2020-democracy-america">using voter suppression to eke out more wins</a> in the Electoral College. Having alienated almost every other demographic, they must stick with their Trump-loving base. They have no one else.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perry is seen in this October 2019 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, the contemporary Republican Party has many elements of a cult of personality. Rick Perry, the former energy secretary, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/25/rick-perry-donald-trump-chosen-one">even recently likened Trump</a> to the patriarchs of the Old Testament. The party does not even try to control its fringe elements; it <em>is</em> a fringe element, an anti-democratic force of recent history that threatens to consume the world’s oldest democracy.</p>
<p>This means that Trump will survive the impeachment process in early 2020, no matter what malfeasance comes to light. The Republicans will protect their man at all costs. And Trump will do everything he can to win in November, unburdened by any sense of propriety, fairness or facts. It’s not even clear if he would accept defeat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/would-trump-concede-in-2020-a-lesson-from-1800-122179">Would Trump concede in 2020? A lesson from 1800</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Against such a foe, the Democrats’ best chance is to lose their fear of it — and then call on their growing majority to demand a broader, more decent definition of government of, by, and for the people.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128075/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.M. Opal receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Trump will survive the impeachment process in 2020, no matter what malfeasance comes to light. The Republicans will protect their man at all costs.Jason Opal, Associate Professor of History and Chair, History and Classical Studies, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277812019-12-02T03:27:48Z2019-12-02T03:27:48ZRick Perry’s belief that Trump was chosen by God is shared by many in a fast-growing Christian movement<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303779/original/file-20191126-112522-8zoxuv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Energy Secretary Rick Perry speaks during an event about the environment at the White House on July 8, 2019, as President Trump looks on.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump/983581137fd24ea0b522ef8f45694afe/37/0">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-rick-perry-trump-god-1473773">recent interview with Fox News</a>, Secretary of Energy Rick Perry stated that Donald Trump was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2019/11/25/rick-perry-under-scrutiny-his-ukraine-trip-says-trump-is-gods-chosen-one/">chosen by God</a> to be president. He said throughout history God had picked “imperfect people” such as King David or Solomon to lead their people.</p>
<p>Perry is not alone. A large number of evangelical Christians in the U.S. believe that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/11/25/why-evangelicals-like-rick-perry-believe-that-trump-is-gods-chosen-one">God has chosen Donald Trump</a> to advance the kingdom of God on Earth. Several high-profile religious leaders have made similar claims, often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/23/cyrus-prophecy-evangelical-support-donald-trump">comparing Trump to King Cyrus</a> who was asked by God to rescue the nation of Israel from exile in Babylon. </p>
<p>Many of these Christians are part of a movement that we call “Independent Network Charismatic,” or “INC Christianity” in <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rise-of-network-christianity-9780190635671?cc=us&lang=en&">our 2017 book</a>. </p>
<p>Leaders such Rick Perry are connected to this movement. Eight years ago – in August of 2011 – more than 30,000 people cheered wildly when Perry, who was then a U.S. presidential candidate and Texas governor, came center stage at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/us/politics/07prayer.html">“The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis”</a> at Reliant Stadium in Houston. Perry quoted from the Bible and preached about the need for salvation that comes from Jesus. Many of the leaders who organized this event are the <a href="https://www.texasobserver.org/rick-perrys-army-of-god/">same leaders who claim</a> that Trump is God’s chosen to advance the Kingdom of God. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worshippers pray with Texas Gov. Rick Perry at Reliant Stadium in Houston in August 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Pat Sullivan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We argue that INC Christianity is significantly changing the religious landscape in America – and the nation’s politics. </p>
<h2>Here is what we found about INC</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is led by a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/11/10/meet-evangelicals-prophesied-trump-win/93575144/">network of popular independent religious entrepreneurs</a>, often referred to by their followers as “apostles.” They have close ties, we found, to some conservative politicians, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and more recently President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Charismatic Christians emphasize supernatural miracles and divine interventions, but INC Christianity is different from other charismatics – and other Christian denominations in general – in the following ways:</p>
<ul>
<li>It is not focused primarily on building congregations but rather on spreading beliefs and practices through media, conferences and ministry schools.<br></li>
<li>It is not so much about proselytizing to unbelievers as it is about transforming society through placing Christian believers in powerful positions in all sectors of society. </li>
<li>It is organized as a network of independent leaders rather than as formally organized denominations.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Finding followers</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is the fastest-growing Christian group in America and possibly around the world. Over the 40 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of regular attenders of Protestant churches as a whole shrunk by an average of <a href="http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org/wcd/default.asp">.05% per year</a>, while independent neo-charismatic congregations, the category that includes INC groups, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uUpIvgAACAAJ&q=world+christian+database#v=snippet&q=world%20christian%20database&f=false">grew</a> by an average of 3.24% per year. </p>
<p>Its impact, however, is much greater than can be measured in church attendance. This is because INC Christianity is not centrally concerned with building congregations, but spreading beliefs and practices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Johnson, pastor of Bethel Church in Redding, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/28648582@N02/5339151794/in/photolist-98NxPh-4tneYS-S2GSgh-eawUwM-eoHoPd-ejgZTH-oitEEP-dikQ7r-oog9to-7nw8Xj-nRzd1D-ejnPrY-jJBSDz-k9ZqHi-RV6sTA-8S1x6F-ejnN39-6Cms1L-RYFe9V-ib25u9-kfEnoJ-96RUcf-CWqNAW-fvChEL-8XsMEe-731ugM-dF1eoK-qsQST3-8XsMCv-eoCZnL-ejnN4j-eo4mek-4BtR7C-bn77Lk-epfYn7-6CgZYX-hCS4LN-gwv8T1-5uEKPN-hf1YHa-kPSkQF-7GuQC2-DPrSep-9Evhue-6Qm84y-4yXQFB-dF6E3L-6jYdJQ-otzCWr-QY7dMz">Kevin Shorter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Table%205.1&f=false">influence of INC Christianity</a> can be seen in the millions of hits on <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">many</a> <a href="http://wagnerleadership.org/">of their</a> <a href="http://www.ihopkc.org/">web-based</a> <a href="http://bethelredding.com/">media</a> <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">sites</a>, large turnouts at stadium rallies and conferences and millions of dollars in media sales. </p>
<p>In interviews, leaders of Bethel, an INC ministry based in Redding, California, claimed to have had an income of US$8.4 million in media sales in 2013. This included music, books, DVDs and web-based content. Another $7 million came from tuition to the <a href="http://bssm.net">Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry</a>.</p>
<p>Sean Feucht, one of Bethel’s popular musicians and worship leaders, is <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-congress-worship-leader-sean-feucht">now running for Congress</a> in California’s Third Congressional District.</p>
<h2>Appeal of INC</h2>
<p>As part of our research, we conducted in-depth interviews with senior leaders, staff and current and former participants in INC Christian ministries. We also conducted supplementary interviews with Christian leaders and scholars with knowledge of the changing religious landscape and attended conferences, numerous church services, ministry school sessions, healing sessions and exorcisms. In all, we conducted 41 in-depth interviews. </p>
<p>Our primary conclusion is that the growth of these groups is largely the result of the informal way in which the network is governed. When compared to the oversight and accountability of formal congregations and denominations, the network allows for more experimentation. This includes “extreme” experiences of the supernatural, unorthodox beliefs and practices, and financing as well as marketing techniques that leverage the power of the internet.</p>
<p>We also witnessed the appeal of INC Christianity, particularly among young people. We saw the thrill of holding impromptu supernatural healing sessions in the emergency room of a large public hospital, the intrigue of ministry school class sessions devoted to the techniques of casting out demonic spirits and the adventure of teams of young people going out into public places, seeking direct guidance from God as to whom to heal or to relay specific divine messages. </p>
<h2>‘Seven mountains of culture’</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060630560/the-religious-history-of-america">Most Christian groups</a> in America have seen the role of the church as connecting individuals to God through the saving grace of Jesus and building congregations that provide communities of meaning and belonging through worship services.</p>
<p>They also believe in serving and providing for the needs their local communities. Such traditional Christian groups believe that although the world can be improved, it will not be restored to God’s original plan until Jesus comes back again to rule the Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lou Engle, an American Charismatic Christian leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenfrangipane/1036678093/in/photolist-2zBfhe">eden frangipane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>INC beliefs, however, are different. Most INC Christian groups we studied seek to bring heaven or God’s intended perfect society to Earth by placing “kingdom-minded people” in powerful positions at the top of all sectors of society. These <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Invading_Babylon.html?id=GbqaZQS52gcC">“seven mountains of culture”</a> include business, government, media, arts and entertainment, education, family and religion. In this form of “trickle-down Christianity,” they believe if Christians rise to the top of all seven “mountains,” society will be completely transformed. </p>
<p>“The goal of this new movement is transforming social units like cities, ethnic groups, nations rather than individuals,” one INC leader we interviewed explained. “If Christians permeate each mountain and rise to the top of all seven mountains…society would have biblical morality, people would live in harmony, there would be peace and not war, there would be no poverty.” </p>
<p>We heard <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=yZ3MCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT4&lpg=PT4&dq=The+Seven+Mountain+Prophecy:+Unveiling+the+Coming+Elijah+Revolution+creation+house&source=bl&ots=gbaQ4lJKwj&sig=ty55USPoxz7n02hQ6b3frjUcG88&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju-qGHqtbSAhWE3YMKHaX3DoAQ6AEIRjAI#v=onepage&q=The%20Seven%20Mountain%20Prophecy%3A%20Unveiling%20the%20Coming%20Elijah%20Revolution%20creation%20house&f=false">these ideas</a> repeatedly in most of our interviews, at events we attended and in INC media materials. </p>
<p>Most significantly, since the 2016 presidential election, some INC leaders have <a href="http://elijahlist.com/words/display_word.html?ID=17420">released public statements</a> claiming that the Trump presidency is part of fulfilling God’s plan to “bring heaven to Earth” by placing believers in top posts, including Perry, Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson. </p>
<h2>Changing the landscape</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is a movement to watch. If it continues to draw adherents in large numbers in the future, as we predict, it will produce a growing number of Christians who see their goal not just as saving souls but as transforming society by taking control over its institutions.</p>
<p>While the Ukraine scandal, family separations at the border, and allegations of corruption have made some evangelical Christians <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2018/0618/Family-separation-Evangelicals-add-their-voices-to-opposition">question their support</a> of Donald Trump, most of those steeped in INC Christianity will never abandon their president. </p>
<p>To them, as we found, to oppose Donald Trump is to oppose God who chose him specifically to bring America and the world back to God. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a piece <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-christian-movement-is-growing-rapidly-in-the-midst-of-religious-decline-73507">first published on March 15, 2017</a>.</em> </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=thanksforreading">Thanks for reading! We can send you The Conversation’s stories every day in an informative email. Sign up today.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Christerson received funding from the John Templeton Foundation for this project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Flory received funding from the John Templeton Foundation for this project.</span></em></p>A Christian movement led by independent religious entrepreneurs, often referred to as ‘apostles,’ is changing the religious landscape of the US.Brad Christerson, Professor of Sociology, Biola UniversityRichard Flory, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/888322018-01-10T11:39:02Z2018-01-10T11:39:02ZRejection of subsidies for coal and nuclear power is a win for fact-based policymaking<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201407/original/file-20180109-36016-izojvx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coal stockpile at Valley Power Plant, Milwaukee, Wis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/aun6Mc">Michael Pereckas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry has repeatedly expressed concern over the past year about the reliability of our national electric power grid. On Sept. 28, 2017, Perry <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Secretary%20Rick%20Perry%27s%20Letter%20to%20the%20Federal%20Energy%20Regulatory%20Commission.pdf_">ordered</a> the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to revise wholesale electricity market rules to help ensure “… a reliable, resilient electric grid powered by an ‘all of the above’ mix of generation resources.” Perry’s proposal included an implicit subsidy to owners of coal and nuclear power plants, to compensate them for keeping a 90-day fuel supply on-site in the event of a disruption to the grid.</p>
<p>On Jan. 8, FERC issued a statement, supported by all five commissioners, <a href="https://elibrary.ferc.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?document_id=14633130">terminating</a> Perry’s proposal. The commissioners held that paying generators to store fuel on-site would only benefit some fuel types. And although coal and nuclear plants are retiring in large numbers, commissioners were not persuaded that this was due to unfair pricing in power markets.</p>
<p>In my view, FERC made an appropriate and well-grounded decision. The commission opted to gather more information and examine many possible approaches to improving reliability, instead of rubber-stamping a directive that had not been fully vetted. The commission’s action is a good example of the kind of evidence-based policymaking that Americans should expect from the federal government.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201411/original/file-20180109-36019-4hgjv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>What makes the power system reliable?</h2>
<p>There is no question that our electricity supply is changing rapidly. As of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3">2016</a>, over one-third of U.S. electricity generation at utility-scale facilities came from natural gas, followed by coal at 30 percent and nuclear power at nearly 20 percent. Renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower provide nearly 15 percent, up from just 8.5 percent in 2007. </p>
<p>Technology advances and cost decreases for renewables, particularly solar and wind, are the key factors driving their growth. Meanwhile, <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2017/10/06/the-decline-of-coal/">coal</a> and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/kcvrkom2z1d4cef/Whats_Killing_Nuclear-MIT_CEEPR_WP%202018-001.pdf?dl=0">nuclear</a> plants, which are less economically competitive, are retiring at high rates.</p>
<p>As the eastern United States emerges from a <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-01-01-arctic-record-cold-outbreak-forecast-midwest-east-south-early-january">record-setting deep freeze</a>, we all can appreciate the importance of reliable energy supplies. Indeed, 2017 was a <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2017-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historic-year">record-breaking year for weather and climate disasters</a>, from hail and tornadoes to three major hurricanes striking U.S. soil. </p>
<p>Many of these events disrupted vital power supplies. Notably, as of late December nearly half of Puerto Rico’s electricity customers – more than 600,000 people – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/officials-nearly-half-of-puerto-rico-clients-without-power/2017/12/29/f8836754-ece2-11e7-956e-baea358f9725_story.html?utm_term=.dc9cd0469d56">still lacked electric power</a> in the wake of Hurricane Maria.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201410/original/file-20180109-36022-1kok5mn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Perry’s proposal assumed that storing extra fuel on-site at generating plants would make the grid more resilient against disasters that could interrupt fuel deliveries. But resilience is not just a matter of having fuel close at hand.</p>
<p>Recognizing this, FERC’s order included a new study of the resilience of the “bulk power system” – the part of the electric grid that includes generation and transmission facilities, which are interconnected across regions. If this system is disrupted in any way, the impacts can be felt across wide areas. </p>
<p>The commission directed operators that manage regional power networks across the nation to submit information within 60 days on the resilience of the system, and to advise on whether FERC needs to take additional actions to improve it. This approach makes clear that the FERC commissioners want more evidence before they make any calls for actions such as subsidizing marginal fuel supplies.</p>
<h2>Look at the evidence</h2>
<p>Whether FERC commissioners know it or not, their approach follows many recommendations set forth recently by a national <a href="https://www.cep.gov/">Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking</a>. This panel was created in 2016 through <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/1831">legislation</a> co-sponsored by House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator Patty Murray of Washington. Its task was to examine how federal agencies use data, research and evaluation to build evidence, and to strengthen those efforts in order to make better policies.</p>
<p>“You always hear people in Washington talk about how much money was spent on a program, but you rarely hear whether it actually worked. That has to change,” <a href="https://www.speaker.gov/press-release/evidence-based-policy-commission-gets-to-work">Ryan said</a>, when the commission was established. “This panel will give us the tools to make better decisions and achieve better results.”</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201424/original/file-20180109-36016-30v58p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New York City during a major winter storm, Jan. 4, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/PGroup-RW-MediaPunch-IPx-A-ENT-New-York-USA-IPX-/3f0dffa67cd44a0c954ca76715e5e764/66/0">RW/MediaPunch/IPX</a></span>
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<p>In its <a href="https://www.cep.gov/cep-final-report.html">final report</a> issued on Sept. 7, 2017, the commission noted the importance of securing and making accessible data which can be used for effective policymaking. To most casual observers, this may seem straightforward. Why would you want to change a policy, which could affect many consumers and businesses, without first looking at the data and understanding all of the potential impacts of a change? </p>
<p>In reality, data can be disputed (think “fake” data), and policies can be motivated by political ideology. Policy choices could become detached from the evidence and fail to incorporate the pros and cons or seek consensus. </p>
<p>In this case, however, FERC’s 5-0 decision shows that the commissioners agreed on their course, and it appears that policymaking based on evidence won the day. This decision had the potential to affect millions of electricity customers, as well as power markets and the environment. FERC deserves congratulations for putting evidence before action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ellen Hughes-Cromwick is a member of the National Association for Business Economics. She served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce from November 2015 to January 2017.</span></em></p>The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rejected a Trump administration proposal to reward coal and nuclear power plants for storing fuel on-site, as a way to make the power system more reliable.Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Senior Economist and Interim Associate Director of Social Science and Policy, University of Michigan Energy Institute, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/871592017-11-15T00:14:00Z2017-11-15T00:14:00ZSubsidizing coal and nuclear power could drive customers off the grid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194388/original/file-20171113-27632-1itqbko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar home designed by University of Maryland students for the Department of Energy's 2017 Solar Decathlon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/Z7cYAx">DOE Solar Decathlon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Within the next month, energy watchers expect the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to act on an <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Notice%20of%20Proposed%20Rulemaking%20.pdf">order</a> from Energy Secretary Rick Perry that would create new pricing rules for certain power plants that can store fuel on site to support grid resilience. This initiative seeks to protect coal-fired and nuclear power plants that are struggling to compete with cheaper energy sources.</p>
<p>Perry’s proposed rule applies to plants that operate in regions with deregulated power markets, where utilities normally compete to deliver electricity at the lowest price. To qualify, plants would have to keep a 90-day fuel supply on site. Each qualified plant would be allowed to <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Secretary%20Rick%20Perry%27s%20Letter%20to%20the%20Federal%20Energy%20Regulatory%20Commission.pdf">“recover its fully allocated costs</a>.” </p>
<p>In other words, plant owners would be able to charge enough to <a href="https://www.law360.com/articles/969563/perry-s-ferc-grid-pricing-plan-would-roil-energy-markets">cover a range of costs</a>, including operating costs, costs of capital and debt, and investor returns. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Neil Chatterjee has <a href="http://www.courier-journal.com/story/tech/science/environment/2017/11/02/government-may-force-higher-rates-to-keep-coal/824944001/">stated</a> that the extra money to keep coal and nuclear plants running “would come from customers in that region, who need the reliability.” </p>
<p>Will consumers willingly pay higher bills to support coal and nuclear power? My research group has analyzed another option: Going off-grid and generating electricity with home-based solar energy systems. Recently we compared the cost of grid power to off-grid renewable generation in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. We found that within a few years, a majority of single-family owner-occupied households could afford the necessary generating systems and <a href="https://www.academia.edu/25363058/Emerging_Economic_Viability_of_Grid_Defection_in_a_Northern_Climate_Using_Solar_Hybrid_Systems">economically defect from the grid</a>.</p>
<h2>Is reliable electricity at risk?</h2>
<p>Coal and nuclear technology are struggling to compete as prices decline for <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/solar-power-will-kill-coal-sooner-than-you-think">solar</a>, <a href="http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2017/08/08/annual-wind-power-report-confirms-technology-advancements-improved-project-performance-low-wind-energy-prices/">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_factors_affecting_prices">natural gas</a> generation. Some states, along with the Trump administration, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-power-deserves-a-level-playing-field-62149">worried about early retirements of coal and nuclear plants</a> and looking for ways to avoid more. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194380/original/file-20171113-27622-fznii3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Natural gas and renewables account for nearly all new U.S. generating capacity added since the year 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31072">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In early 2017 Perry commissioned a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/08/f36/Staff%20Report%20on%20Electricity%20Markets%20and%20Reliability_0.pdf">grid reliability study</a>, which found that cheap natural gas and flattening electricity demand were the main drivers for coal and nuclear plant retirements, and projected more closures to come. Shortly after the report was released, Perry proposed this rule. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2017/10/largest-us-grid-operator-opposes-perry-s-plan-to-save-coal.html?cmpid=enl_rew_solar_energy_news_2017-10-28">Many responses</a> have been critical. Jon Wellinghoff, who chaired the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-does-baseload-power-rule-would-blow-the-market-up/506269/">said</a>: “It’s gonna be as expensive as hell. Expensive as it can be because we will be paying the full freight on coal and nuclear plants.” </p>
<p>ICF Consulting estimates that Perry’s proposal would cost ratepayers <a href="https://www.rtoinsider.com/icf-doe-nopr-76642/">an extra US$800 million to $3.8 billion annually through 2030</a>. Others calculate the cost at up to <a href="http://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/20171021_Resilience-NOPR-Cost-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf">$10.6 billion annually</a>, depending on the rule’s design.</p>
<h2>What can consumers do?</h2>
<p>If retail prices do actually go up as a result of Perry’s proposed changes to the wholesale energy markets the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulates, ratepayers can manage their electric bills in three ways. First, they can reduce electricity use by adopting efficient technologies, such as <a href="https://www.energystar.gov/products">Energy Star</a> products, and conserve energy through steps such as turning off lights. </p>
<p>In areas with favorable rules, consumers can save much more by installing rooftop solar power while staying connected to the grid. The key requirement is that their utility must allow <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/technical-assistance/basics-net-metering.html">net metering</a>. Under this arrangement, when homes generate more electricity than they need, they can sell excess power into the grid and receive credit for it on their electric bills. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.academia.edu/1484968/A_Review_of_Solar_Photovoltaic_Levelized_Cost_of_Electricity">levelized cost of electricity</a> from solar is lower than grid electricity in most of America. This makes it <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/energy-saving/shedding-light-on-solar-power/">normally profitable</a> to use solar power to reduce household electricity bills, if homeowners can afford the up-front investment to install solar systems. <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-states-most-friendly-to-rooftop-solar-ranked#gs.fERkKYE">The most solar-friendly states</a>, which are mainly in the Northeast and on the West Coast, support solar with tax credits, rebates and other policies. However, home solar systems are even becoming popular in <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06112017/solar-south-trump-country-energy-independence-price-georgia-mississippi-alabama">southern and Appalachian states</a> that provide less support for renewable energy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194389/original/file-20171113-27632-kcvm1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot program has already reached its 2020 targets for reducing the cost of utility solar power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://energy.gov/eere/solar/sunshot-2030">DOE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But widespread adoption of home solar power can <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-rooftop-solar-is-disruptive-to-utilities-and-the-grid-39032">reduce utility profits and shift electricity demand patterns</a> in ways that require power companies to make upgrades as their customer bases shrink. This conundrum has sparked debate over a scenario known as the “<a href="https://www.cleanegroup.org/solar-storage-and-the-utility-death-spiral/">utility death spiral</a>”: As customers leave the grid, utilities sell less energy and have to raise prices to cover their fixed costs. More customers install solar in response, pushing electricity prices up further and driving more customers away. </p>
<p>In response, some utilities have tried to slow the move to solar through steps such as <a href="https://www.academia.edu/35065588/Examining_Interconnection_and_Net_Metering_Policy_for_Distributed_Generation_in_the_United_States">distorting net metering rules</a> and campaigning to <a href="http://www.irecusa.org/2013/08/wisconsin-utility-seeks-stricter-net-metering-policy/">limit access to net metering</a>. </p>
<h2>Defecting from the grid</h2>
<p>Such tactics raise the cost of grid-tied solar systems and <a href="http://midwestenergynews.com/2015/09/18/solar-customers-in-michigans-u-p-feel-carpet-ripped-out-from-under-them/">frustrate many customers</a>. They give consumers incentive to pursue a third option: Disconnecting from their utilities and relying on on-site solar generation, supported by energy storage (and sometimes backup) systems. </p>
<p>One recent <a href="https://rmi.org/insights/reports/economics-grid-defection/">study</a> investigated state-level markets in New York, Kentucky, Texas, California and Hawaii. It found that solar hybrid systems were already profitable for consumers in some places, particularly Hawaii, and could become so for tens of millions of customers over the next several decades.</p>
<p>My team studied the potential for grid defection in <a href="https://www.academia.edu/25363058/Emerging_Economic_Viability_of_Grid_Defection_in_a_Northern_Climate_Using_Solar_Hybrid_Systems">northern Michigan</a>, one of the most challenging places in the United States to go solar. Winters there are dark and brutally cold, so households can rely entirely on solar power only in warm seasons. </p>
<p>However, solar coupled with so-called cogeneration systems and batteries can provide enough energy on cold, cloudy winter days. These small-scale combined heat and power systems, which are <a href="http://www.modernpowersystems.com/features/featuredomestic-micro-chp-installations-japan-remains-in-the-lead-4816860/">made mainly in Japan</a>, usually run on natural gas and produce heat as they generate electricity. They can function year-round and are most effective in the winter when solar production is low. The costs of these hybrid systems are <a href="https://www.academia.edu/20141118/Levelized_cost_of_electricity_for_solar_photovoltaic_battery_and_cogen_hybrid_systems">declining</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193951/original/file-20171109-27138-1nq0ljh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=577&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Recent advances in cogeneration, battery storage and solar photovoltaic technology have made going off-grid technically feasible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.mtu.edu/news/stories/2016/may/leaving-electrical-grid-upper-peninsula.html)">Michigan Tech University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our study we first calculated electricity demand by household size and type. Second, we compared costs of conventional grid electricity to an off-grid solar-hybrid system. Finally, to assess how many households could afford to invest in solar-hybrid systems, we analyzed household incomes and minimum credit score requirements for financing from the <a href="https://michigansaves.org/">Michigan Saves</a> program, which makes loans to help residents reduce energy costs.</p>
<p>We found that by 2020, about 75 percent of year-round Upper Peninsula households could meet their electricity needs using off-grid solar systems at less cost than staying on the grid. Not all households could afford to invest in these systems, but we found that by 2020, about 65 percent of single-family owner-occupied households would have access to affordable capital to purchase hybrid systems. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that if Perry’s proposal is enacted and raises rates, it could drive many ratepayers to go off-grid, leaving fewer customers to cover the costs of maintaining the grid. This could raise electric rates substantially for utilities’ remaining customers, potentially triggering further defections. In sum, subsidizing coal and nuclear plants could destabilize the electric power system instead of strengthening it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Joshua M. Pearce works as Professor of Engineering for the Michigan Technological University. He receives funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), The Air Force Research Laboratory (ARFL) with the National Center for Defense Manufacturing and Machining (NCDMM) and America Makes, and the National Science Foundation (NSF). In addition, his past and present consulting work and research is funded by many non-profits and for-profit companies, many of them in the energy field. He does not directly work for the DOE and has no direct conflicts of interests. </span></em></p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry says the US needs to subsidize nuclear and coal power plants to keep the grid stable. But this policy would raise energy costs and could drive consumers off-grid instead.Joshua M. Pearce, Professor, Michigan Technological UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/869032017-11-06T01:23:33Z2017-11-06T01:23:33ZImproving women’s lives through energy: What Rick Perry got right and wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193295/original/file-20171104-1046-tj3kr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Refugee women from Darfur, Sudan return to their camp in eastern Chad with wood for their households in 2011.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/ddVJC8">European Commission DG ECHO</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Nov. 2, U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry clumsily stated that fossil fuels could help prevent sexual assaults on vulnerable women in Africa. “When the lights are on, when you have light, it shines the righteousness, if you will, on [sexual assault],” Perry <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-assaults/u-s-energy-chief-says-fossil-fuels-could-help-prevent-sexual-assaults-in-africa-idUSKBN1D22U7">asserted</a>. “So from the standpoint of how you really affect people’s lives, fossil fuels is [sic] going to play a role in that.”</p>
<p>This wasn’t the first time that Perry’s views have <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41854358">raised eyebrows and garnered snickers</a>. But on this issue, he was partly right. Access to energy can promote women’s rights and improve their lives.</p>
<p>However, fossil fuels do not offer any special benefit for women in the developing world, and they pose some very real threats. From our perspective as energy researchers, the Trump administration can do much more to help women in low-income countries by promoting clean-burning fuels, efficient technologies and electricity from renewable sources.</p>
<h2>Dirty cookstoves kill millions</h2>
<p>In the United States, where energy access is universal, Perry’s claim that fossil fuels directly improve women’s quality of life falls flat. Here their cumulative impacts on our <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-when-its-sitting-in-storage-coal-threatens-human-health-80865">environment and health</a> can actually make things worse for everyone. But much of the developing world lacks access to modern forms of energy, and this situation puts women at risk in many ways. </p>
<p>Today over 1 billion people live without <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/partnership/?p=93">electricity</a>, <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/07/billions-around-the-world-lack-safe-water-proper-sanitation-facilities-reveals-un-report/">safe drinking water or proper sanitation</a>. These conditions burden women far more than men. Women and girls in developing nations typically manage households, which can require them to walk for <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">1.4 hours daily</a> to collect primitive solid fuels like wood, straw and cow dung for heating and cooking. This puts them at <a href="http://cleancookstoves.org/about/news/08-15-2016-refugee-puts-safety-and-health-at-risk-to-collect-firewood.html">risk of sexual violence</a> while they are out in remote areas.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1jMsLtuA460?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Air pollution from indoor cooking with primitive fuels kills millions of people yearly.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Burning primitive fuels in inefficient cookstoves generates smoke, ash, soot and particulate matter, producing dangerous indoor air pollution. According to the <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/">World Health Organization</a>, 4.3 million people die every year from pneumonia, stroke, heart disease and other illnesses associated with exposure to inefficient stoves burning fuels like wood, dung, crop waste – and, notably, coal. Women and young children, who spend the most time near home hearths, suffer the highest exposures. The International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">estimates</a> that providing universal access to clean cooking systems would avert 1.8 million premature deaths annually by 2030. </p>
<p>Giving households in low-income regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia access to modern forms of energy, such as propane, piped natural gas and electricity, would also free up women and girls to go to school or earn extra household income. Educated girls have more choices, frequently marry later and opt to have fewer children, which helps to <a href="https://unchronicle.un.org/article/educate-girls-eradicate-poverty-mutually-reinforcing-goal">alleviate the cycle of extreme poverty</a>. </p>
<h2>Deterring crime, or sometimes attracting it</h2>
<p>Perry was correct in linking light with reduced risk of sexual assault and other crimes. Cities in the developed world have installed lighting systems (often powered by fossil fuels) for nearly 200 years to promote public safety. Familiar examples include <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2848038/The-magical-job-Britain-Enchanting-story-gas-street-lights-five-men-burning-just-did-Dickens-day.html">London’s gas lamps</a>; so-called “<a href="http://austinot.com/austin-moon-towers">moontowers</a>” in Austin, Texas; and the high-efficiency <a href="http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2017/04/13/st-louis-invests-in-led-streetlights/">LED systems</a> that illuminate many major U.S. cities today. </p>
<p>However, Perry’s attempt to identify these benefits exclusively with fossil fuels is absurd. True, electrification at home has made Americans safer by enabling ubiquitous public lighting, alarm systems and, now, mobile phones. But it makes no difference whether that electricity is made from fossil fuels, nuclear energy or renewables. What people really want aren’t raw forms of energy like lumps of coal or a tank of gas. Instead, they want <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a2146/4224757/">energy services</a> like heat, motion and illumination. Providing those services in a cleaner, more sustainable way benefits everyone. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193299/original/file-20171105-1020-tzhh3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women train to become solar engineers, Barefoot College, India, 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/bVNm1L">UN Women</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With international attention focused on mitigating the impacts of climate change, many developed and developing countries are <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-slow-climate-change-india-joins-the-renewable-energy-revolution-78321">boosting investments</a> in renewables and other low-carbon sources of energy. India is making aggressive plans for solar and wind, while China has prioritized research and development to <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-china-climate-change-is-no-hoax-its-a-business-and-political-opportunity-69191">become a dominant producer</a> of solar panels and wind turbines. By promoting outdated energy sources like coal, the United States is ceding leadership on clean energy while downplaying energy systems that better enable women’s rights. </p>
<p>And sometimes fossil fuel production can actually foster crime. For more than a century, energy “boom towns” have been associated with prostitution and <a href="http://bismarcktribune.com/bakken/conference-looks-at-human-trafficking-prostitution/article_35b5b872-c66b-11e3-90e4-001a4bcf887a.html">human trafficking</a>, fueled by large populations of men with money and nothing to do after work. The pattern can be seen today in <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/weekend-australian-magazine/pay-dirt/news-story/42ee1f51a45159854d5e919a55b8ff30">Australian coal towns</a>, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2014/09/28/dark-side-of-the-boom/?utm_term=.230999e6fc36">North Dakota’s Bakken oil and gas zone</a> and <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=ANzFx1O95eAC&pg=PA120&lpg=PA120&dq=prostitution+oil+towns&source=bl&ots=_MgtQhyvSi&sig=Sk6jOl0cTOGj3fQ8QtHGg_AAi64&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBnZWI3KXXAhUiwYMKHawyCnI4FBDoAQg4MAM#v=onepage&q=prostitution%20oil%20towns&f=false">Niger Delta oil communities</a>. Disturbing reports have linked fossil fuel “man camps” in the United States with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/us/16women.html">increases in domestic violence and sexual assault</a>. </p>
<h2>Empowering women</h2>
<p>The #MeToo campaign has brought the pervasiveness of sexual assault and harassment to light. Americans must address this ubiquitous problem head-on. It is also important to expand access to energy globally. Women will benefit from advances on both of these issues. But when Secretary Perry doubled down on protecting old, inefficient and dirty forms of energy like coal, he set back progress instead of pointing the way forward. </p>
<p>In our view, the most effective way in which U.S. energy policy can help women around the world is by promoting American-made natural gas, propane and renewable electricity worldwide. If Perry also wants to help women here in the United States, he can work to bring more women into visible positions of influence at energy companies and government agencies, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/dear-hillary-where-are-the-women-in-your-energy-strategy-58847">the glass ceiling is still strong</a>. By doing so, he could help develop a more thoughtful culture about how energy decisions affect women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Webber receives funding from a variety of sponsors including energy companies, automotive companies, financial companies, federal agencies, state agencies, local agencies, foundations, environmental groups, and NGOs. A full list of his research sponsors are available at <a href="http://www.webberenergygroup.com">www.webberenergygroup.com</a>. He is also active on the editorial or advisory boards for a variety of publications and non-profits. Webber abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin and has filed all required financial disclosure forms with the university.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sheril Kirshenbaum is affiliated with Science Debate, a nonprofit organization working to improve communication between scientists, policymakers and the public.</span></em></p>With better access to energy, women in developing nations could spend more time working or in school. But Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s claim that fossil fuels improve women’s lives misses the mark.Michael E. Webber, Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Deputy Director of the Energy Institute, The University of Texas at AustinSheril Kirshenbaum, Food@MSU, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855612017-10-13T04:20:02Z2017-10-13T04:20:02ZThe pull of energy markets – and legal challenges – will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190046/original/file-20171012-31431-onx4wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Grid operators set the prices for energy markets and are structured to take the lowest prices – a disadvantage for coal and nuclear power.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Oct. 10, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-takes-another-step-advance-president-trumps-america-first-strategy-proposes-repeal">formally announced</a> a repeal of the Clean Power Plan, regulation intended to curb greenhouse gas emissions from existing coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. </p>
<p>This follows a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Notice%20of%20Proposed%20Rulemaking%20.pdf">directive</a> only a week earlier by Energy Secretary Rick Perry for the the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to start a process to essentially <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-rick-perrys-proposed-subsidies-for-coal-fail-economics-101-83339">subsidize coal and nuclear power plants</a>. </p>
<p>At first blush, these developments give the impression that the U.S. power sector is about to take a dramatic turn, and these decisions do indeed represent a significant shift in U.S. policy. But major changes on the ground are unlikely to happen overnight, or perhaps even in the next several years, for many reasons. Topping the list are legal challenges and simply the way competitive energy markets work.</p>
<h2>Headwinds from natural gas, wind and solar</h2>
<p>Legally, the Clean Power Plan repeal is already facing a challenge. The same day as its demise was announced, New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/ag-schneiderman-leads-coalition-states-and-localities-opposing-pres-trumps-efforts">responded</a> that he would lead a coalition of states and localities in a lawsuit defending the Clean Power Plan. </p>
<p>Unless the Trump administration replaces the Clean Power Plan with something that addresses greenhouse emissions adequately, its decision is legally vulnerable. The Supreme Court decision in <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/05-1120.ZS.html">Massachusetts v. EPA</a> provided the basis of the Obama administration’s regulation of greenhouse gases. Specifically, after this case, the EPA made a finding that greenhouse gases endanger public health or welfare, which the Trump administration has not challenged. The proposed rule repealing the Clean Power Plan indicates an intention to replace it with other regulation, and a key legal question will be whether that regulation is sufficient to protect health and safety. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190030/original/file-20171012-31381-3j59xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fracking and horizontal drilling have led to a surge in natural gas production and lower prices. As more pipelines are built, natural gas prices will stay relatively low, making coal less competitive economically.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/consumersenergy/14165904839/in/photolist-nzMXYB-f9XtJb-f9XtBQ-7RD78C-dSQcMY-a9XrWQ-f9HdQe-7dEkxt-f9Hegr-8CkHjD-7dEo14-dVnWU3-fHUtKS-8CoPyY-8CowNy-8CkKJr-agV71g-9cH8WD-TryTTF-iKuXA-ft8LqW-bDowqJ-csti-bSif82-7dEriD-8GkQ2Q-8CkwX6-8XvPAN-8CkfN4-8CoUn3-9hFV2R-TryTLr-5HuX9v-8CkGKK-dVnX4W-f9nGXa-aERkpH-p97uwY-bg6vWP-h4MVHS-8CoUe7-8CkjYr-f9Xtn3-akoKs4-qJXYNr-bSifg8-6sc6Aa-dyYdw8-fbBChB-f9HdVH">Consumers Energy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even if the repeal and any subsequent regulation survive legal challenges, the development of the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/report/shale-gas-and-tight-oil-boom">shale gas industry</a> has caused market shifts that seem <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-may-dismantle-the-epa-clean-power-plan-but-its-targets-look-resilient-68460">unlikely to be reversed</a>. Prior to the unconventional oil and gas boom, natural gas prices were notoriously volatile, making power plant developers wary to invest in gas-fired infrastructure. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-solar-and-wind-really-killing-coal-nuclear-and-grid-reliability-76741">now natural gas is commonly used</a> for “baseload” plants – those that continuously supply electricity to meet constant demand – as well as peaker plants that supply additional power when demand rises. </p>
<p>This market shift is why nearly all new power plants recently built in the United States are gas-fired. Further enhancing the stability of these markets is the recent expansion of natural gas pipelines carrying gas from productive areas like the Marcellus and Barnett regions to power plants around the country. This means that it’s likely that coal-fired power plants will continue to face economic challenges. </p>
<p>At the same time, midwestern and western wind energy – and solar in places like the Southwest – now <a href="https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060063283">outcompete coal and nuclear in energy markets</a>. While the Trump administration regulations aim to support coal and nuclear power development, these market forces remain powerful.</p>
<h2>Cheapest energy sources first</h2>
<p>The way that U.S. energy markets operate – supported by more than two decades of policies supporting competition – further constrains the impact of the repeal and other Trump administration policies. </p>
<p>Two-thirds of power supplied in the United States flows through transmission lines controlled by regional entities called regional transmission organizations. These entities control both the flow of power through long-distance transmission lines and the markets for energy. They run marketplaces where power plant operators bid to supply the amount of power needed throughout the day. Regional transmission organizations first draw on the cheapest sources of power until they have fulfilled all demand for power. Changes to these existing market practices would require major revisions to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission policies. </p>
<p>For example, given the complex computer systems currently used by regional transmission organizations to match demand with the cheapest available power supply, the DOE proposal to favor more-expensive coal and nuclear in these markets would be exceedingly difficult to implement. It would require the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to establish a price for each individual coal and nuclear power plant that was not set by market forces, which runs contrary to how markets operate now. This is partly why past efforts to favor certain power plants over others in these markets – for example, efforts to prioritize plants based on their environmental attributes – have largely not materialized.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/190042/original/file-20171012-31440-1wc5whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy Secretary Rick Perry testifies Oct. 12 at the House Energy and Commerce Committee on the department’s plan to provide payments to coal and nuclear power plants, a break from years of policies designed to use least expensive sources of energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The repeal’s impact will be further blunted by the many entities that have pledged to meet or exceed the Obama administration’s targets under the Paris Agreement. For example, more than 2,300 states, cities, businesses and universities have signed the <a href="https://www.wearestillin.com/">We Are Still In Pledge</a>, and many have already substantially expanded their low-carbon energy portfolio. Although a number of key states will certainly pursue different pathways than they would have under the Clean Power Plan, many states are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/10/climate/clean-power-plan-emissions-your-state.html">on target to exceed the goals</a> that would have been set for them. </p>
<p>From its Paris Agreement withdrawal to this latest decision to repeal the Clean Power Plan, the Trump administration continues to unwind the Obama administration’s regulatory efforts on climate change. We in no way want to understate the significance of this policy shift. But looking at the larger context shows how a number of factors will constrain the amount of change these regulatory shifts will likely bring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hari Osofsky receives grant funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Energy. She also consults with the Children's Investment Fund Foundation to evaluate an grant that it made to ClientEarth to support climate change litigation in Europe. None of these entities would benefit from this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Wiseman sometimes consults for the Environmental Defense Fund. This entity would not benefit from this article. </span></em></p>Two moves by the Trump administration signal a dramatic shift in energy policy to favor coal and nuclear, but markets forces and legal challenges mean changes could take years.Hari Osofsky, Dean, Distinguished Professor of Law, Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Geography, Penn StateHannah Wiseman, Attorneys' Title Professor, College of Law, Florida State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/855712017-10-11T23:16:06Z2017-10-11T23:16:06ZHow a growing Christian movement is seeking to change America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189822/original/file-20171011-9771-1iamedt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamrozanas/6952685315/in/photolist-bAok7K-YPB6Fa-nMAeVm-o4f32t-9oVcVi-YPB6TV-y8toKS-bnrZXy-bnpieQ-yMWFiq-FG6zmG-iuwSHJ-SHuXe8-bNBJUM-e9yR3n-cEqrsw-4ChLfJ-Xi1LHm-z6nPkB-4pCXN5-R3BMr1-8ktJCG-b4RYHt-8ktTwC-p2p4qs-6fNEmt-jNTs5Y-aFNvFV-A2tHzN-RAaFXG-cp3v2-nVcmkC-a5duq1-y8ELua-bAmQz2-nKHq7A-bq9MpL-bntdkS-jz2wsH-bAmSwz-9xSwuc-bAmUH2-bAjcDK-2EKBt-bntfuL-bAomiv-bns3mo-9xVt8h-F5qPtN-bwcpM9">Adam Rozanas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In October 2017, the National Mall in Washington, D.C. was filled with tents, worship music and prayer for the <a href="http://www.awakenthedawn.org/">“Awaken the Dawn”</a> rally. The purpose of the event, according to organizer Lou Engle, was to “gather around Jesus,” to pray for the nation and its government. It ended with a <a href="http://religionnews.com/2017/10/09/christian-women-gather-on-national-mall-for-day-of-prayer/">day of prayer</a> by Christian women.</p>
<p>This wasn’t the first such event. On April 9, 2016, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, tens of thousands of people <a href="http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2016/april/thousands-to-gather-in-l-a-to-pray-for-unity-revival">gathered to pray</a> for the supernatural transformation of America. </p>
<p>Five years earlier, in August of 2011, more than 30,000 people cheered wildly as the then U.S. presidential candidate and Texas Governor Rick Perry – now secretary of energy in the Trump administration – came to the center stage at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/us/politics/07prayer.html">“The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis”</a> at Reliant Stadium in Houston. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worshipers pray with Texas Gov. Rick Perry, seen at center and on screen, at The Response, a daylong prayer and fast rally, Aug. 6, 2011, at Reliant Stadium in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Pat Sullivan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These three events and the leaders who organized them are central players in a movement that we call “Independent Network Charismatic,” or INC, Christianity in our recently released book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rise-of-network-christianity-9780190635671?cc=us&lang=en&">“The Rise of Network Christianity</a>.” </p>
<p>Based on our research, we believe that INC Christianity is significantly changing the religious landscape in America – and its politics. </p>
<h2>Here is what we found about INC</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is led by a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/11/10/meet-evangelicals-prophesied-trump-win/93575144/">network of popular independent religious entrepreneurs</a>, often referred to as “apostles.” They have close ties, we found, to conservative U.S. politicians, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and more recently President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Charismatic Christians emphasize supernatural miracles and divine interventions. But INC Christianity is different from other charismatics – and other Christian denominations in general – in the following ways:</p>
<ul>
<li>It is not focused primarily on building congregations but rather on spreading beliefs and practices through media, conferences and ministry schools.<br></li>
<li>It is not so much about proselytizing to unbelievers as it is about transforming society through placing Christian believers in powerful positions in all sectors of society. </li>
<li>It is organized as a network of independent leaders rather than as formally organized denominations.</li>
</ul>
<p>INC Christianity is the fastest-growing Christian group in America and possibly around the world. Over the 40 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of regular attenders of Protestant churches as a whole shrunk by an average of <a href="http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org/wcd/default.asp">.05 percent per year</a>, which is a striking decline when one considers that the U.S. population grew an average of 1 percent per year during those years. At the same time, independent neo-charismatic congregations (a category in which INC groups reside) <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uUpIvgAACAAJ&q=world+christian+database#v=snippet&q=world%20christian%20database&f=false">grew</a> by an average of 3.24 percent per year. </p>
<p>Its impact, however, is much greater than can be measured in church attendance. This is because INC Christianity is not centrally concerned with building congregations, but spreading beliefs and practices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Johnson, pastor of Bethel Church in Redding, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/28648582@N02/5339151794/in/photolist-98NxPh-4tneYS-S2GSgh-eawUwM-eoHoPd-ejgZTH-oitEEP-dikQ7r-oog9to-7nw8Xj-nRzd1D-ejnPrY-jJBSDz-k9ZqHi-RV6sTA-8S1x6F-ejnN39-6Cms1L-RYFe9V-ib25u9-kfEnoJ-96RUcf-CWqNAW-fvChEL-8XsMEe-731ugM-dF1eoK-qsQST3-8XsMCv-eoCZnL-ejnN4j-eo4mek-4BtR7C-bn77Lk-epfYn7-6CgZYX-hCS4LN-gwv8T1-5uEKPN-hf1YHa-kPSkQF-7GuQC2-DPrSep-9Evhue-6Qm84y-4yXQFB-dF6E3L-6jYdJQ-otzCWr-QY7dMz">Kevin Shorter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Table%205.1&f=false">influence of INC Christianity</a> can be seen in the millions of hits on <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">many</a> <a href="http://wagnerleadership.org/">of their</a> <a href="http://www.ihopkc.org/">web-based</a> <a href="http://bethelredding.com/">media</a> <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">sites</a>, large turnouts at stadium rallies and conferences, and millions of dollars in media sales. In our interviews with leaders, we found that Bethel, an INC ministry based in Redding, California, for example, in 2013 had an income of US$8.4 million in sales of music, books, DVDs and web-based content as well as $7 million in tuition to their <a href="http://bssm.net">Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry</a>. </p>
<h2>Appeal of INC</h2>
<p>As part of our research, we conducted in-depth interviews with senior leaders, staff and current and former participants in INC Christian ministries. We also conducted supplementary interviews with Christian leaders and scholars with knowledge of the changing religious landscape and attended conferences, numerous church services, ministry school sessions, healing sessions and exorcisms. In all, we conducted 41 in-depth interviews. </p>
<p>Our primary conclusion is that the growth of these groups is largely the result of their network governance structure. When compared to the oversight and accountability of formal congregations and denominations, these structures allow for more experimentation. This includes “extreme” experiences of the supernatural, unorthodox beliefs and practices, and financing as well as marketing techniques that leverage the power of the internet.</p>
<p>In our research, we witnessed the appeal of INC Christianity, particularly among young people. We saw the thrill of holding impromptu supernatural healing sessions in the emergency room of a large public hospital, the intrigue of ministry school class sessions devoted to the techniques of casting out demonic spirits and the adventure of teams of young people going out into public places, seeking direct guidance from God as to whom to heal or to relay specific divine messages. </p>
<h2>‘Seven mountains of culture’</h2>
<p>In addition to the growth numbers, the importance of INC Christianity lies in the fact that its proponents have a fundamentally different view of the relationship between the Christian faith and society than most Christian groups throughout American history. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060630560/the-religious-history-of-america">Most Christian groups</a> in America have seen the role of the Church as connecting individuals to God through the saving grace of Jesus and building congregations that provide communities of meaning and belonging through worship services. They also believe in serving and providing for the needs their local communities. Such traditional Christian groups believe that although the world can be improved, it will not be restored to God’s original plan until Jesus comes back again to rule the Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lou Engle, an American Charismatic Christian leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenfrangipane/1036678093/in/photolist-2zBfhe">eden frangipane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>INC beliefs, however, are different – their leaders are not content simply to connect individuals to God and grow congregations. Most INC Christian groups we studied seek to bring heaven or God’s intended perfect society to Earth by placing “kingdom-minded people” in powerful positions at the top of all sectors of society. </p>
<p>INC leaders have labeled them the <a href="https://www.destinyimage.com/pages/search-results-page?q=invading+babylon&page=1">“seven mountains of culture.”</a>
These include business, government, media, arts and entertainment, education, family and religion. In this form of “trickle-down Christianity,” they believe if Christians rise to the top of all seven “mountains,” society will be completely transformed. </p>
<p>One INC leader we interviewed summed it up this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The goal of this new movement is transforming social units like cities, ethnic groups, nations rather than individuals…if Christians permeate each mountain and rise to the top of all seven mountains…society would have biblical morality, people would live in harmony, there would be peace and not war, there would be no poverty.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We heard <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=yZ3MCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT4&lpg=PT4&dq#v=onepage&q&f=false">these ideas</a> repeatedly in most of our interviews, at events we attended and in INC media materials. </p>
<p>Most significantly, since the 2016 presidential election, some INC leaders have <a href="http://elijahlist.com/words/display_word.html?ID=17420">released public statements</a> claiming that the Trump presidency is part of fulfilling God’s plan to “bring heaven to Earth” by placing believers in top posts, including Rick Perry; Betsy DeVos directing the Department of Education; and Ben Carson leading the Department of Housing and Urban Development. </p>
<h2>Changing the landscape</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is a movement to watch because we think it will continue to draw adherents in large numbers in the future. It will produce a growing number of Christians who see their goal not just as saving souls but as transforming society by taking control over its institutions.</p>
<p>We see the likelihood of INC Christians taking over the “seven mountains of culture” as slim. However, we also believe that this movement is sure to shake up the religious and political landscape for generations to come.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a piece <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-christian-movement-is-growing-rapidly-in-the-midst-of-religious-decline-73507">originally published</a> on March 15, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Christerson receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Flory receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p>A prayer rally recently organized in Washington, DC is part of a growing movement, that scholars call ‘Independent Network Christianity.’Brad Christerson, Professor of Sociology, Biola UniversityRichard Flory, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/833392017-10-08T23:14:42Z2017-10-08T23:14:42ZWhy Rick Perry’s proposed subsidies for coal fail Economics 101<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189269/original/file-20171007-25779-pbli0l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demolishing the coal-fired R.E. Burger Power Station in Shadyside, Ohio, July 29, 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/KssTzJ">PROFirstEnergy Corp.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a controversial proposal, Energy Secretary Rick Perry has asked federal regulators to effectively subsidize coal and nuclear power plants at ratepayers’ expense. Under Perry’s <a href="https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Notice%20of%20Proposed%20Rulemaking%20.pdf">proposal</a>, plants that operate in deregulated electricity markets – where generators normally compete to provide power at the lowest cost – would be guaranteed positive profits so long as they stockpile 90 days’ worth of fuel on site. </p>
<p>To rationalize this proposal, which a former Republican member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has dubbed “<a href="https://www.rtoinsider.com/ferc-doe-cybersecurity-rick-perry-76484/">the antithesis of good economics</a>,” Secretary Perry points to uncompensated benefits generated by coal and nuclear plants.</p>
<p>As energy economists, when we think about coal-fired electricity generation, what usually comes to mind are unaccounted-for costs – not benefits. This emerging pro-coal narrative is worth unpacking. </p>
<h2>Coal’s hidden costs</h2>
<p>When we teach the concept of externalities – the idea that economic activities can generate costs or benefits that are not reflected in their prices – we often use coal markets as a textbook example of negative externalities. It is true that burning coal fueled the Industrial Revolution and has helped propel emerging economies to modern-day heights. However, mining, transporting, storing and burning coal also have all kinds of negative health and environmental consequences that are not reflected in coal market prices.</p>
<p>For example, burning coal produces local and regional pollutants, including mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulates. These pollutants cause <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-reason-to-shift-away-from-coal-air-pollution-that-kills-thousands-every-year-78874">thousands of premature deaths and illnesses</a> in the United States annually. They also help form <a href="https://www.epa.gov/acidrain">acid rain</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ozone-pollution">ozone</a> that damage crops and ecosystems. Even more significant from an economic perspective, burning coal is the source for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=77&t=11">almost a quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions</a>, which lead to rising temperatures and sea levels, not just here but worldwide. </p>
<p>The nonpartisan National Academies of Sciences <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12794/hidden-costs-of-energy-unpriced-consequences-of-energy-production-and">estimate</a> the health and environmental damages per million Btu, or British thermal units, of coal at US$6.60. (British thermal units are a measure of the energy content of fuels.) For perspective, the delivered coal price in 2016 averaged $2.15 per MMBtu. Coal looks cheap, but we’re paying a hefty hidden cost.</p>
<p>The coal industry has historically fought regulations that aim to <a href="https://theconversation.com/curbing-climate-change-has-a-dollar-value-heres-how-and-why-we-measure-it-70882">internalize these significant negative impacts</a>. Now, however, Perry and <a href="http://www.utilitydive.com/news/chatterjee-coal-plants-should-be-properly-compensated-for-grid-value/449367/">other proponents</a> are clamoring to account for alleged positive externalities from coal, such as reliability and resilience. In our view, this is like subsidizing bacon because it contains vitamins. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189270/original/file-20171007-3228-1haj3jm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>In April 2017 Secretary Perry <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/dive_static/paychek/energy_memo.pdf">commissioned a study</a> to “explore critical issues central to protecting the long-term reliability of the electric grid.” Perry’s memo foreshadowed some anticipated conclusions – namely, that a recent <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25272">decline in coal-fired generation</a> was making electricity generation less reliable and “threaten[ing] to undercut the performance of the grid well into the future.” The stage was set for a study that could support a pro-coal agenda.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.utilitydive.com/news/report-draft-of-doe-grid-study-finds-renewables-not-a-threat/447232/">early draft of the study</a> concluded that “the power system is more reliable today due to better planning, market discipline, and better operating rules and standards.” This was not what the energy secretary ordered. The summary statement about the grid being more reliable than ever was later removed. Nonetheless, the <a href="https://energy.gov/staff-report-secretary-electricity-markets-and-reliability">final report</a> offered no evidence that coal plant retirements were undermining grid reliability. </p>
<p>Despite this conclusion, in October Perry directed federal energy regulators to guarantee cost recovery for plants that stored 90 days of fuel on site. In our view, this is a ham-handed approach to compensating resilience and reliability services. However, it effectively targets compensation at the type of plants this administration wants to prop up – coal and nuclear plants. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189271/original/file-20171007-25772-1y9jcr3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7290">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Does coal keep the lights on?</h2>
<p>The proposed regulation is based on some key arguments that contradict DOE’s own expert analysis in the grid report. First, it assumes that coal plants are indispensable to keeping the lights on and meeting electricity demand. </p>
<p>To assure reliability, electric grids need to balance supply and demand in real time or risk cascading blackouts. One supplier shirking its responsibilities can lead to problems for all users of the grid. So we can think of reliability of supply as a positive externality, in the same way that pollution is a negative externality. </p>
<p>But unlike pollutants such as carbon dioxide, electricity markets have internalized the external costs and benefits of reliability to a significant extent. The detailed rules and regulations that govern power grid operations require utilities to have more generating capacity than they need. They also compensate some plants for standing by to provide power in case of emergencies. (Typically, these are natural gas plants that can start up quickly.) Power markets compensate producers for providing reliable capacity and penalize them when they fail to meet their obligations. </p>
<p>The proposed regulation also assumes that the resilience of the nation’s electric grid is “threatened by premature retirements of power plants that can withstand major fuel supply disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters.” What kind of disasters are we talking about here? One example might be cyberattacks. There is no evidence that coal-fired power plants are less likely to be hacked, or will be quicker to recover, than natural gas, wind or solar generators. </p>
<p>Large-scale environmental events such as hurricanes, floods and extreme cold weather could also threaten grid resilience. There is redundant natural gas pipeline transportation capacity in much of the country, which reduces fuel supply risks substantially. Still, during some weather disruptions, coal rail networks could be more reliable than gas pipelines. </p>
<p>But after Hurricane Harvey, flooded coal piles forced one of America’s largest coal plants in Texas to close two of its units and <a href="https://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/houston/harveys-rain-caused-coal-to-gas-switching-nrg-21081527">convert others to natural gas</a>. <a href="http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/January%202014%20Polar%20Vortex%20Review/Polar_Vortex_Review_29_Sept_2014_Final.pdf">Frozen coal piles</a> and <a href="https://rmi.org/news/fuel-hand-make-coal-nuclear-power-plants-valuable/">train derailments</a> have kept coal plants elsewhere from operating during cold winter weather. A <a href="http://rhg.com/notes/the-real-electricity-reliability-crisis">recent report</a> by the Rhodium Group states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Of all the major power disruptions, nation-wide over the past five years, only 0.0007 percent were due to fuel supply problems. The vast majority were the result of severe weather knocking down power lines.” </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189273/original/file-20171007-25779-dsywuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National Guardsmen clear debris in Cayey, Puerto Rico, Sept. 30, 2017, following Hurricane Maria. The storm left the island’s power plants largely undamaged, but took down so many power lines that rebuilding the grid is expected to take months.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.defense.gov/2017/Oct/02/2001821045/-1/-1/0/170930-A-ZM725-340C.JPG">Staff Sgt. Wilma Orozco Fanfan, US Army National Guard</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coal’s negative balance sheet</h2>
<p>Subsidizing utilities to burn more coal would worsen coal’s major negative externalities in the name of some dubious positive externalities. Deregulated power markets <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-solar-and-wind-really-killing-coal-nuclear-and-grid-reliability-76741">already have measures in place</a> to support efficient levels of investment in reliability and resilience. There is surely room for refinement, but Perry’s proposal is the opposite of refined. It asks government to interfere in well-functioning markets, which is not something Republicans usually support – especially since it will come at great expense to ratepayers.</p>
<p>Subsidizing coal for its reliability attributes is like subsidizing bacon for its nutritional content. There are better ways to get your vitamins, and better ways to keep the lights on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83339/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry has proposed to reward coal plants for stockpiling fuel onsite – allegedly making the power system more reliable. Two economists give this idea a failing grade.Meredith Fowlie, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, BerkeleyMaximilian Auffhammer, Pardee Professor of Sustainable Development, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/767412017-05-12T01:20:32Z2017-05-12T01:20:32ZAre solar and wind really killing coal, nuclear and grid reliability?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169027/original/file-20170511-32578-ohnmht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lessons from the Lone Star State: A surge in wind power on the Texas grid didn't cause reliability problems (and brought down electricity prices) because regulators improved the efficiency of wholesale electricity markets.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sarah Fields Photography/Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry in April <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/dive_static/paychek/energy_memo.pdf">requested a study</a> to assess the effect of renewable energy policies on nuclear and coal-fired power plants. </p>
<p>Some energy analysts responded with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/18/rick-perry-asked-for-a-boring-wonky-study-of-the-grid-even-that-was-controversial/?utm_term=.78accbb3fe0a">confusion</a>, as the subject has been extensively studied by grid operators and the Department of Energy’s own national labs. Others were more <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-15/electric-grid-study-ordered-by-u-s-energy-chief-to-boost-coal">critical</a>, saying the intent of the review is to <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/331357-dems-blast-doe-study-as-biased-for-coal-nuclear">favor the use of nuclear and coal</a> over <a href="http://www.utilitydive.com/news/updated-perry-orders-doe-review-of-clean-energy-impacts-on-baseload-genera/440578/">renewable sources</a>. </p>
<p>So, are wind and solar killing coal and nuclear? Yes, but not by themselves and not for the reasons most people think. Are wind and solar killing grid reliability? No, not where the grid’s technology and regulations have been modernized. In those places, overall grid operation has improved, not worsened.</p>
<p>To understand why, we need to trace the path of electrons from the wall socket back to power generators and the markets and policies that dictate that flow. As energy scholars based in Texas – the national leader in wind – we’ve seen these dynamics play out over the past decade, including when Perry was governor. </p>
<h2>Wrong question</h2>
<p>There has been a lot of ink spilled on why coal is in trouble. A quick recap: Natural gas is <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/03/28/future-energy-runs-texas-washington">plentiful and cheap</a>. Our coal fleet is <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-old-dirty-creaky-us-electric-grid-would-cost-5-trillion-to-replace-where-should-infrastructure-spending-go-68290">old and depreciated</a>. Energy use in the U.S. has <a href="http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/Center%20on%20Global%20Energy%20Policy%20Can%20Coal%20Make%20a%20Comeback%20April%202017.pdf">flatlined</a>, so there’s less financial incentive to build big new power plants. </p>
<p>Part of Perry’s review is aimed at establishing how wind and solar, which are variable sources of power, are affecting so-called baseload sources – the power plants that provide the steady flow of electricity needed to meet the minimum demand. </p>
<p>Posing the question whether wind and solar are killing baseload generators, including coal plants, reveals an antiquated mindset about power markets that hasn’t been relevant in many places for at least a decade. It would be similar to asking in the late 1990s whether email was killing fax machines and snail mail. The answer would have been an unequivocal “yes” followed by cheers of “hallelujah” and “it’s about time” because both had bumped into the limits of their utility. How quickly 1990s consumers leaped to something faster, less impactful and cheaper than the older approach was a sign that they were ready for it. </p>
<p>Something similar is happening in today’s power markets, as customers again choose faster, less impactful, cheaper options – namely wind, solar and natural gas plants that quickly boost or cut their output – as opposed to clinging to the outdated, lumbering options developed decades before. Even the Department of Energy’s own analysis states that “<a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/01/f34/Maintaining%20Reliability%20in%20the%20Modern%20Power%20System.pdf">many of the old paradigms that govern the (electricity) sector are also evolving</a>.”</p>
<p>Wind and solar are making older generators less viable because their low, stable prices and emissions-free operation are desirable. And they aren’t hurting grid reliability the way critics had assumed because other innovations have happened simultaneously.</p>
<h2>Texas pioneer</h2>
<p>Let’s use the case study of Texas to illustrate. Since Texas has its own grid, known as the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas or <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>, and has installed <a href="http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/wind_installed_capacity.asp">more wind capacity</a> than the next three wind-leading states combined, the Texas experience shows what variable renewables like wind power do to the grid.</p>
<p>In competitive markets like ERCOT, companies that run power plants place bids into an auction to provide electricity at a certain time for a certain price. A bid stack is jargon for “a stack of bids” – or the collection of all these bids lined up in order by price – in auction-based markets (such as Texas). </p>
<p>Markets use bid stacks to make sure that the lowest-cost power plants are dispatched first and the most expensive power plants are dispatched last. This market-based system is designed to deliver the lowest-cost electricity to consumers while also keeping power plant owners from operating at a loss. Throughout the day, the market price for electricity (in $/Megawatt-hour) changes as demand changes.</p>
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xT0xeu3lElz0BJSmvC" width="100%" height="349" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""> </iframe>
<figure>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An illustration of the electricity market bid stack for the ERCOT grid in Texas. Generators line up left to right from the lowest cost to highest cost every five minutes. As demand changes throughout the day, the ‘marginal generator,’ or the last power plant called to provide power, sets the price that every plant providing power (left of the vertical black line) is paid. Power plants to the right of the line are not dispatched and thus do not receive payment in an energy-only market. (NG CC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle; NG Other = NG boilers and combustion turbines).</span></figcaption> </figure>
<p>The cost of natural gas also affects the price of electricity. As the price of natural gas drops, each of the natural gas power plants drop in price. That’s no surprise: When it costs less for them to operate, they can bid a lower price into the market and move earlier in the line. </p>
<p>When gas drops into to the range of US$3 to $3.50 (per million BTU) and lower, it begins to displace coal as a less expensive source of electricity. This scenario reflects today’s reality: gas is cheap so grids are using it for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/">more of our electricity than coal</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/26u4jnZazRT2GfBKw" width="100%" height="349" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""> </iframe>
<figure>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Illustration of a bid stack with a fixed load and declining prices for natural gas, resulting in coal being forced to the right side of the bid stack. Moving to the right of the stack means that the power plant is not dispatched because there are other more economical options for producing electricity, in this case, NG CC. (NG CC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle; NG Other = NG boilers and combustion turbines).</span></figcaption> </figure>
<p>How do renewables affect the bid stack? Renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydro have no fuel costs – sunlight, wind and flowing water are free. That means their marginal operational cost is near zero; the cost is essentially the same to operate one megawatt of wind as compared to the cost of operating 10 megawatts of wind since generators don’t need to buy fuel. That means as more wind and solar farms are installed, more capacity is inserted at the cheapest end of the bid stack. </p>
<p>This insertion pushes out other generators such as nuclear, natural gas and coal, causing some of them to no longer be dispatched into the grid – that is, they don’t supply power into the grid (or get paid). So as more renewables are installed, power markets dispatch fewer conventional options. And, because the marginal cost of these new sources is almost free, they substantially lower the cost for electricity. This is great news for consumers (all of us) as our bills decrease, but bad news for competitors (such as coal plant owners) who operate their plants less often and are paid less when the plants do operate.</p>
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xT0xePJsI8shK9asQU" width="100%" height="349" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""> </iframe>
<figure>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Increasing the installed capacity of renewable energy (e.g., wind and solar) on the bid stack shifts generators with conventional fuels such as nuclear, coal and natural gas to the right. Since renewable sources have near-zero marginal costs since there is no cost for fuels, they are dispatched first and reduce the market price for electricity. (NG CC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle; NG Other = NG boilers and combustion turbines.).</span></figcaption> </figure>
<p>What does all this mean? Natural gas and renewables are affecting coal in two ways. Natural gas is a direct competitor with coal because both can be dispatched – turned on – when a grid operator needs more power. That is helpful for grid reliability. But, as the cost of natural gas has fallen, coal has become less competitive because it is cheaper to operate a natural gas power plant. </p>
<p>The effect of renewables is slightly different: Wind and solar power are not dispatchable, so they cannot be turned on at a moment’s notice. But, when they do turn on, during windy evenings or sunny days in Texas, they operate at very low marginal cost and thus operate very competitively. </p>
<p>Research at UT Austin shows that while installing significant amounts of solar power would increase annual grid management costs by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916310984">$10 million in ERCOT, it would reduce annual wholesale electricity costs by $900 million</a>. The result of all this is that renewables compete with conventional sources of power, but they do not displace nearly as much coal as cheap natural gas. In fact, cheap gas displaces, on average, more than twice as much coal than renewables have in ERCOT.</p>
<h2>What about nuclear?</h2>
<p>Nuclear’s problems are largely self-inflicted. In short: The price to build nuclear is high, so we don’t build many nuclear plants these days. Since we don’t build, we don’t have the manufacturing capability. Since we don’t have the manufacturing capability, the price to build nuclear is high. Since the price to build nuclear is high, we don’t build nuclear these days…so on and so forth. </p>
<p>Today, cheap gas, having already beaten up on coal, is a threat to new nuclear power plants and less efficient, older plants. New natural gas combined cycle power plants can be built for about one-sixth the cost of a new nuclear plant, is almost twice as efficient and you can build them in smaller increments, making them easier to finance.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/169028/original/file-20170511-32593-1yjvy0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The wholesale markets for electricity in Texas were modernized under then-Governor Rick Perry while forecasting for wind output improved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/texasgovernor/6838780054/in/photolist-9f7uZb-8SsfJM-8SvkHA-6Dndrc-8SvkJJ-8UBgxy-8SsfK4-8SsfLg-8SsRJz-abzjvk-6v2LqG-aBdGGo-9CoUUM-6H64ke-6H64kH-6dAv5p-6H64m4-bqjx3W-8SsfKZ">texasgovernor/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Market innovation and IT can fix reliability</h2>
<p>Because wind energy comes and goes with the weather, it makes grid operators nervous. But wind forecasting has improved dramatically, giving more confidence to those who need to keep the lights on. </p>
<p>And, interestingly enough, the requirements for reserve capacity (backup power for when wind power dips) to manage the grid smoothly <a href="http://energy.utexas.edu/files/2017/01/UTAustin_FCe_Ancillary_2017.pdf">went down, not up</a>, over the past few years in Texas, despite rapid growth in wind during Governor Perry’s tenure. That is, the costs for managing variability in the grid decreased. </p>
<p>Why has there been little disruption to the reliability of the Texas grid? Because alongside rapid growth in wind installations was a market transformation in ERCOT. While Secretary Perry was governor, the <a href="http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/349">Texas market</a> went from a coarse, slow market to a fine-tuned, fast market. Innovating the market to one that is dynamic and fully functioning made it easy to include more wind into the system. It’s also a sign of how advanced technologies enable us to reinvent the grid toward one that is cheaper, cleaner and more reliable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167756/original/file-20170503-21649-18n2lt5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure showing increasing wind in ERCOT and decreasing regulation requirements. The drop in requirements is due to market operational changes. There does not appear to be any correlation with increasing wind and regulation procurements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Juan Andrade, Yingzhang Dong, Ross Baldick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there is still more to do – information technology coupled with integrated hardware can help. Consider this: There are 7.7 million smart meters in Texas, most of them residential. We’ve estimated that installing 7 million controllable thermostats for just the households in Texas would cost $2 billion. Residential air conditioning is responsible for about 50 percent of peak demand in Texas in the summer. That means about 30 gigawatts of peak demand in Texas is just from residential air conditioners. </p>
<p>By dynamically managing our air conditioning loads – that is, adjusting thermostats to lower overall demand without impacting people’s comfort – we could reduce peak demand by 10 to 15 GW. That means we might not need $10 billion to $15 billion worth of <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/the-full-cost-of-electricity-fce/fce-publications/lcoe-white-paper/">power plants</a>. Spending $2 billion to avoid $15 billion is a good deal for consumers. In fact, you could give the thermostat away for free and pay each household $700 for their trouble and it would still be cheaper than any power plant we can build.</p>
<p>In the end, Secretary Perry has posed good questions. Thankfully, because of lessons learned while he was governor of Texas, we already have answers: despite concerns to the contrary, incorporating wind and solar into the grid along with fast-ramping natural gas, smart market designs and integrated load control systems will lead to a cleaner, cheaper, more reliable grid.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Rhodes abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin. The University of Texas at Austin is committed to transparency and disclosure of all potential conflicts of interest. He has filed all required financial disclosure forms with the university. Joshua Rhodes has not received any research funding that would create a conflict of interest or the appearance of such a conflict. In addition to research work on topics generally related to energy systems at the University of Texas at Austin, Joshua Rhodes is an equity partner in IdeaSmiths LLC, which consults on topics in the same areas of interests. The terms of this arrangement have been reviewed and approved by the University of Texas at Austin in accordance with its policy on objectivity in research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>F. Todd Davidson does not work or consult for any company that would benefit from the content of this article. Todd has received funding from oil and gas companies, such as Statoil. Todd personally owns shares in Kinder Morgan, General Electric, and Apache. Todd abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin and has filed all required financial disclosure forms with the university. Todd has no relevant affiliations beyond his academic positions with the University of Texas at Austin.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Webber receives funding from many research partners and sponsors, including the U.S. Department of Energy, Texas State Energy Conservation Office, ERCOT, the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and many others. A complete listing of funders for his research at UT Austin can be found at <a href="http://www.webberenergygroup.com">www.webberenergygroup.com</a>. Michael E. Webber abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin. The University of Texas at Austin is committed to transparency and disclosure of all potential conflicts of interest. He has filed all required financial disclosure forms with the university. In addition to research work on topics generally related to energy systems at the University of Texas at Austin, Webber is an equity partner in IdeaSmiths LLC, which consults on topics in the same areas of interests. The terms of this arrangement have been reviewed and approved by the University of Texas at Austin in accordance with its policy on objectivity in research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas A. Deetjen abides by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at Austin. He receives funding from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and has contributed to research projects funded by ExxonMobil. </span></em></p>Energy Secretary Rick Perry wants to know if wind and solar are compromising the reliability of the grid and hurting coal power. The answer lies in his home state of Texas.Joshua D. Rhodes, Postdoctoral Researcher of Energy, The University of Texas at AustinF. Todd Davidson, Research Associate, Energy Institute, The University of Texas at AustinMichael E. Webber, Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Deputy Director of the Energy Institute, The University of Texas at AustinThomas Deetjen, Graduate Research Assistant, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/735072017-03-16T02:21:57Z2017-03-16T02:21:57ZHow a Christian movement is growing rapidly in the midst of religious decline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160795/original/image-20170314-10720-v4acmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jesus culture.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamrozanas/6806267708/in/photolist-bnrUgf-brfN7D-f8KB9C-abhqNe-bAnb9g-cdXqno-cdXq2b-f8KBbq-f8vk4P-btqqcv-frSrWp-bVAfdc-f8vjSK-dUf24J-cBWnos-f8vkcB-bAnfvK-bLJgBa-bnrTcJ-bWA3mk-bnpmNA-dU9psX-aFX98v-fs7Lc7-bAndn4-bnsk4f-fBGDmt-f8KB27-ccDmxy-ccXuC1-avfvMa-irveie-bnsz83-f8KBbC-bAnsNV-iWA1Su-f8KBnw-bAnd1t-f8KBh9-bAnmbV-bAjbJk-bnrSoJ-f8vkbX-bntQQw-bnsxKs-frSsg2-iWA2yQ-dtLg4G-btqqsv-ainY1T">Adam Rozanas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In August of 2011, more than 30,000 people cheered wildly as the then U.S. presidential candidate and Texas Governor Rick Perry – now secretary of energy in the Trump administration – came to the center stage at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/us/politics/07prayer.html">“The Response: A Call to Prayer for a Nation in Crisis”</a> at Reliant Stadium in Houston. Perry quoted from the Bible and preached about the need for salvation that comes from Jesus. He <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-08-06-rick-perry-prayer-rally_n.htm">concluded with a prayer</a> for a country he believed to be overwhelmed by problems:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We see discord at home. We see fear in the marketplace. We see anger in the halls of government.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He then proceeded to ask God for forgiveness for forgetting “who made us, who protects us, and who blesses us.” In response, the crowd exploded into cheers and praise to God. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160799/original/image-20170314-10727-8j6dbl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Worshippers pray with Texas Gov. Rick Perry, seen at center and on screen, at The Response, a daylong prayer and fast rally, Aug. 6, 2011, at Reliant Stadium in Houston.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Pat Sullivan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Five years later, on April 9, 2016, and 1,500 miles away at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, tens of thousands of people <a href="http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2016/april/thousands-to-gather-in-l-a-to-pray-for-unity-revival">gathered to pray</a> for the supernatural transformation of America. The event consisted of more than 16 hours of healing sessions, worship music and prophecy from some of the most popular Charismatic Christian leaders in the world. </p>
<p>While not directly affiliated, these two events and the leaders who organized them are central players in a movement that we call “Independent Network Charismatic,” or INC, Christianity in our recently released book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-rise-of-network-christianity-9780190635671?cc=us&lang=en&">“The Rise of Network Christianity</a>.” </p>
<p>Based on our research, we believe that INC Christianity is significantly changing the religious landscape in America – and its politics. </p>
<h2>Here is what we found about INC</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is led by a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/11/10/meet-evangelicals-prophesied-trump-win/93575144/">network of popular independent religious entrepreneurs</a>, often referred to as “apostles.” They have close ties, we found, to conservative U.S. politicians, including Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and more recently President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Charismatic Christians emphasize supernatural miracles and divine interventions, but INC Christianity is different from other charismatics – and other Christian denominations in general – in the following ways:</p>
<ul>
<li>It is not focused primarily on building congregations but rather on spreading beliefs and practices through media, conferences and ministry schools.<br></li>
<li>It is not so much about proselytizing to unbelievers as it is about transforming society through placing Christian believers in powerful positions in all sectors of society. </li>
<li>It is organized as a network of independent leaders rather than as formally organized denominations.</li>
</ul>
<p>INC Christianity is the fastest-growing Christian group in America and possibly around the world. Over the 40 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of regular attenders of Protestant churches as a whole shrunk by an average of <a href="http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org/wcd/default.asp">.05 percent per year</a>, while independent neo-charismatic congregations (a category in which INC groups reside) <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uUpIvgAACAAJ&q=world+christian+database#v=snippet&q=world%20christian%20database&f=false">grew</a> by an average of 3.24 percent per year. </p>
<p>Its impact, however, is much greater than can be measured in church attendance. This is because INC Christianity is not centrally concerned with building congregations, but spreading beliefs and practices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160798/original/image-20170314-10759-1uentpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Johnson, pastor of Bethel Church in Redding, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/28648582@N02/5339151794/in/photolist-98NxPh-4tneYS-S2GSgh-eawUwM-eoHoPd-ejgZTH-oitEEP-dikQ7r-oog9to-7nw8Xj-nRzd1D-ejnPrY-jJBSDz-k9ZqHi-RV6sTA-8S1x6F-ejnN39-6Cms1L-RYFe9V-ib25u9-kfEnoJ-96RUcf-CWqNAW-fvChEL-8XsMEe-731ugM-dF1eoK-qsQST3-8XsMCv-eoCZnL-ejnN4j-eo4mek-4BtR7C-bn77Lk-epfYn7-6CgZYX-hCS4LN-gwv8T1-5uEKPN-hf1YHa-kPSkQF-7GuQC2-DPrSep-9Evhue-6Qm84y-4yXQFB-dF6E3L-6jYdJQ-otzCWr-QY7dMz">Kevin Shorter</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=Table%205.1&f=false">influence of INC Christianity</a> can be seen in the millions of hits on <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">many</a> <a href="http://wagnerleadership.org/">of their</a> <a href="http://www.ihopkc.org/">web-based</a> <a href="http://bethelredding.com/">media</a> <a href="http://www.gloryofzion.org/">sites</a>, large turnouts at stadium rallies and conferences, and millions of dollars in media sales. In our interviews with leaders, we found that Bethel, an INC ministry based in Redding, California, for example, in 2013 had an income of US$8.4 million in media sales (music, books, DVDs, web-based content) and $7 million in tuition to their <a href="http://bssm.net">Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry</a>. </p>
<p>According to the director of media services at the Kansas City-based International House of Prayer (IHOP), their <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=O9c-DgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=google+pages+the+rise+of+network+Christianity&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju0f6HrdbSAhWLjVQKHZBNAAMQ6AEIHDAA#v=snippet&q=A%20number%20of%20IHOP%20leaders%20we%20interviewed&f=false">website receives</a> over 25 million hits every year from all over the world and is one of the top 50 websites in the world in terms of viewed video content (a million hours of watched video content per month). </p>
<h2>Appeal of INC</h2>
<p>As part of our research we conducted in-depth interviews with senior leaders, staff and current and former participants in INC Christian ministries. We also conducted supplementary interviews with Christian leaders and scholars with knowledge of the changing religious landscape and attended conferences, numerous church services, ministry school sessions, healing sessions and exorcisms. In all, we conducted 41 in-depth interviews. </p>
<p>Our primary conclusion is that the growth of these groups is largely the result of their network governance structure. When compared to the oversight and accountability of formal congregations and denominations, these structures allow for more experimentation. This includes “extreme” experiences of the supernatural, unorthodox beliefs and practices, and financing as well as marketing techniques that leverage the power of the internet.</p>
<p>In our research, we witnessed the appeal of INC Christianity, particularly among young people. We saw the thrill of holding impromptu supernatural healing sessions in the emergency room of a large public hospital, the intrigue of ministry school class sessions devoted to the techniques of casting out demonic spirits and the adventure of teams of young people going out into public places, seeking direct guidance from God as to whom to heal or to relay specific divine messages. </p>
<h2>‘Seven mountains of culture’</h2>
<p>In addition to the growth numbers, the importance of INC Christianity lies in the fact that its proponents have a fundamentally different view of the relationship between the Christian faith and society than most Christian groups throughout American history. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060630560/the-religious-history-of-america">Most Christian groups</a> in America have seen the role of the church as connecting individuals to God through the saving grace of Jesus and building congregations that provide communities of meaning and belonging through worship services. They also believe in serving and providing for the needs their local communities. Such traditional Christian groups believe that although the world can be improved, it will not be restored to God’s original plan (until Jesus comes back again to rule the Earth). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160955/original/image-20170315-5354-11zimpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lou Engle, an American Charismatic Christian leader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenfrangipane/1036678093/in/photolist-2zBfhe">eden frangipane</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>INC beliefs, however, are different – their leaders are not content simply to connect individuals to God and grow congregations. Most INC Christian groups we studied seek to bring heaven or God’s intended perfect society to Earth by placing “kingdom-minded people” in powerful positions at the top of all sectors of society. </p>
<p>INC leaders have labeled them the <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Invading_Babylon.html?id=GbqaZQS52gcC">“seven mountains of culture.”</a>
These include business, government, media, arts and entertainment, education, family and religion. In this form of “trickle-down Christianity,” they believe if Christians rise to the top of all seven “mountains,” society will be completely transformed. </p>
<p>One INC leader we interviewed summed it up this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The goal of this new movement is transforming social units like cities, ethnic groups, nations rather than individuals…if Christians permeate each mountain and rise to the top of all seven mountains…society would have biblical morality, people would live in harmony, there would be peace and not war, there would be no poverty.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>We heard <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=yZ3MCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT4&lpg=PT4&dq=The+Seven+Mountain+Prophecy:+Unveiling+the+Coming+Elijah+Revolution+creation+house&source=bl&ots=gbaQ4lJKwj&sig=ty55USPoxz7n02hQ6b3frjUcG88&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwju-qGHqtbSAhWE3YMKHaX3DoAQ6AEIRjAI#v=onepage&q=The%20Seven%20Mountain%20Prophecy%3A%20Unveiling%20the%20Coming%20Elijah%20Revolution%20creation%20house&f=false">these ideas</a> repeatedly in most of our interviews, at events we attended and in INC media materials. </p>
<p>Most significantly, since the 2016 presidential election, some INC leaders have <a href="http://elijahlist.com/words/display_word.html?ID=17420">released public statements</a> claiming that the Trump presidency is part of fulfilling God’s plan to “bring heaven to Earth” by placing believers in top posts, including Rick Perry, who is currently heading the Energy Department; Betsy DeVos directing the Department of Education; and Ben Carson leading the Department of Housing and Urban Development. </p>
<h2>Changing the landscape</h2>
<p>INC Christianity is a movement to watch because we think it will continue to draw adherents in large numbers in the future. It will produce a growing number of Christians who see their goal not just as saving souls but as transforming society by taking control over its institutions.</p>
<p>We see the likelihood of INC Christians taking over the “seven mountains of culture” as slim. However, we also believe that this movement is sure to shake up the religious and political landscape for generations to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Christerson receives funding from John Templeton Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Flory receives funding from the John Templeton Founation. </span></em></p>A Christian movement led by popular independent religious entrepreneurs, often referred to as ‘apostles,’ is changing the religious landscape of America.Brad Christerson, Professor of Sociology, Biola UniversityRichard Flory, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/703822016-12-15T04:09:43Z2016-12-15T04:09:43ZLesson one for Rick Perry: The Energy Department doesn’t produce much energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150172/original/image-20161214-2500-1k13q1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration supervises the removal of 68 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (enough for two nuclear weapons) from the Czech Republic in 2013. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nnsanews/8619422303/in/album-72157633163366723/">NNSA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A former governor of Texas – the state that produces more crude oil, natural gas, lignite coal, wind power and refined petroleum products than any other – would seem to be a natural choice for secretary of energy. Yet, assuming he is confirmed by the Senate, Rick Perry will face a paradox.</p>
<p>While the Department of Defense defends us, and the Department of Treasury manages federal finances and supervises banks, the Department of Energy does not provide America’s energy. Yes, it markets hydroelectric power from dams run by the Army Corps of Engineers, but U.S. energy production is overwhelmingly a job for the private sector. </p>
<p>The Energy Department is a hodgepodge of organizations, some of which existed decades before DOE was created in 1977. But it has two core missions: nuclear energy, weapons and cleanup, which account for 68 percent of the department’s <a href="http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/02/f29/FY2017BudgetinBrief_0.pdf">fiscal year 2016 budget</a>; and research and development (including basic science) to advance cleaner or more efficient ways to produce and use energy, which constitutes 28 percent of its budget. The incoming secretary will need to marshal these nuclear and scientific capabilities to meet key national security challenges, including a resurgent Russia and the threat of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.</p>
<h2>The department of nuclear weapons and science</h2>
<p>Physical science is at the heart of everything DOE does. Indeed, it could as accurately be called the Department of Physical Science (in contrast to the life sciences, which mostly reside at the <a href="https://www.nih.gov/">National Institutes of Health</a> and the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>). </p>
<p>The Energy Department’s 17 <a href="http://energy.gov/maps/doe-national-laboratories">national laboratories</a> focus on physics, chemistry, and materials and other sciences. They operate at a high level: 115 scientists associated with the department or its predecessors <a href="http://science.energy.gov/about/honors-and-awards/doe-nobel-laureates/">have won Nobel prizes</a>. These laboratories are precious national resources that enhance American welfare, prosperity and security.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150188/original/image-20161214-2505-m4h2w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Z Machine at DOE’s Sandia National Laboratory in Albuquerque, New Mexico is the largest X-ray generator in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/8056998596/in/album-72157630137563548/">Randy Montoya, Sandia National Laboratories/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many people in Washington might laugh at the thought, but the <a href="https://nnsa.energy.gov/">National Nuclear Security Administration</a>, or NNSA, which accounts for almost half of the department’s US$30 billion budget, arguably rivals Apple in producing three different but related products at a world-class level. The <a href="https://nnsa.energy.gov/ourmission/maintainingthestockpile">U.S. nuclear weapons program</a> is first-rate in terms of science, safety, security and reliability. The <a href="https://nnsa.energy.gov/ourmission/poweringnavy">naval reactors program</a>, which designs and maintains the systems that power the Navy’s submarines and aircraft carriers, ensures that our underwater fleet is unmatched in stealth and reliability, and therefore in military effectiveness. And the <a href="https://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ourprograms/nonproliferation">nuclear nonproliferation program</a>, which works to prevent nuclear proliferation and terrorism and to inform arms control policy with technical expertise, has a wider international reach and a deeper roster of activities than any other such effort in the world.</p>
<h2>Management challenges for the next secretary</h2>
<p>DOE and its laboratories also have major management challenges. Many of the department’s facilities are one-of-a-kind and operate at the border between science and technology, in a high-security environment, often using potentially hazardous material or processes. </p>
<p>All of these factors introduce risk, which is inherent in employing novel technologies required to meet highly demanding technical requirements. One example is the <a href="https://lasers.llnl.gov/">National Ignition Facility</a> at <a href="https://www.llnl.gov/">Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</a>, the world’s largest laser instrument, designed to create temperatures and pressures unseen outside of stars. All too often these ambitious goals and rigorous standards have resulted in <a href="http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d10199.pdf">cost overruns</a>.</p>
<p>To be successful, the next energy secretary will need to focus relentlessly on three priorities. First, he or she will need to improve contract and project management. The Department’s Office of Environmental Management and the NNSA – which together spend more than half of the agency’s budget – have been on the U.S. Government Accountability Office’s <a href="http://www.gao.gov/highrisk/overview">high-risk list</a> for years. Agencies and programs on this list are vulnerable to fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement or in urgent need of transformation.</p>
<p>Starting in the George W. Bush administration, and continuing under the Obama administration, the department greatly improved its operations, but <a href="http://www.gao.gov/highrisk/doe_contract_management/why_did_study#t=1">much remains to be done</a>. If Congress does not have confidence in how the department is spending precious taxpayer dollars, it is likely to cut funding for DOE programs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150194/original/image-20161214-2539-1babddc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy Secretary Steven Chu visits the waste treatment plant construction site at the Hanford nuclear reservation in Washington in 2012. The 65-acre plant will seal 53 million gallons of radioactive and chemical wastes from more than 40 years of plutonium production for nuclear weapons into glass logs for permanent disposal. It is years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Secretary_Chu_Visits_Hanford_%287977761186%29.jpg">Energy.Gov/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, the next energy secretary will need to complete ongoing efforts to reverse the decay of our nuclear weapons complex. Much of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the facilities necessary to make and maintain it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-nuclear-arsenal-is-ready-for-overhaul/2012/09/15/428237de-f830-11e1-8253-3f495ae70650_story.html?utm_term=.a229c375b1b0">have outlasted their expected lifetimes</a>. Deferred maintenance can no longer be put off and obsolete facilities can no longer operate. </p>
<p>The Obama administration started this work, promising in 2010 to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/11/17/fact-sheet-enduring-commitment-us-nuclear-deterrent">add $14 billion over 10 years</a> to improve infrastructure. But a sustained commitment is needed. One big challenge will be to keep a <a href="http://www.bechtel.com/projects/uranium-processing-facility/">new $6.5 billion uranium processing facility</a> on track for completion by 2025. </p>
<p>Third, the next energy secretary will need to reinvigorate work to prevent nuclear proliferation and terrorism. NNSA operates the largest programs to detect, secure and dispose of dangerous nuclear material in the world. These programs are vital to U.S. security, and each of the last four presidents has put his stamp on them.</p>
<p>President George H. W. Bush began the process in 1991 by signing the <a href="https://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/NunnLugarBrochure_2012.pdf?_=1354304005">Nunn-Lugar legislation</a>, which provided money as the Soviet Union broke apart to secure and remove Soviet nuclear weapons and materials from the new countries of Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. President Clinton set the agenda and established programs to install physical protection and materials accounting, detect nuclear smuggling and consolidate the number of facilities that stocked weapons-usable nuclear materials.</p>
<p>After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President George W. Bush doubled the program budget and accelerated its pace. And President Obama broadened the effort by convening four <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/29/fact-sheet-nuclear-security-summits-securing-world-nuclear-terrorism">nuclear security summits</a>, where world leaders pledged to take hundreds of steps to protect nuclear materials and prevent nuclear terrorism.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150197/original/image-20161214-2505-19whe0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World leaders at the fourth Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., April 1, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fotograf%C3%ADa_Oficial_de_la_IV_Cumbre_de_Seguridad_Nuclear_(25570040834).jpg">Government of Chile/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now those summits are over and cooperation with Russia is in tatters. DOE’s funding requests for nuclear security cooperation have declined every year since 2011, and the budget now is smaller than when President Obama took office. It is vitally important for the Trump administration to set ambitious new goals and provide enough resources for these programs. </p>
<h2>Leading DOE</h2>
<p>Past secretaries of energy have come from a wide range of backgrounds, including the Navy, industry and academia. The most successful ones focused sharply on accomplishing two or three big goals and avoiding the myriad distractions that DOE’s sprawling bureaucracy constantly raises. They also trusted senior DOE staffers’ scientific and technical judgment, but asked hard questions. </p>
<p>The Trump campaign did not lay out detailed nuclear policy or energy research and development plans, which is understandable because those issues were not high priorities for the electorate. It will therefore fall to the next energy secretary to define them – and national security, not energy production, will be the highest priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William H. Tobey was a deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration at the U.S. Department of Energy from 2005 to 2009. He is a member of the Secretary of State's International Security Advisory Board and Chairman of the Board of the World Institute for Nuclear Security.</span></em></p>Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry has experience with energy, but if confirmed as secretary of energy, he should get ready to learn a lot about DOE’s big jobs: nuclear security and basic science research.William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/458042015-08-06T19:45:46Z2015-08-06T19:45:46ZStatistics professors give Fox News a B- on their big polling test<p>The results are in.</p>
<p>Fox News has settled on the 10 Republican candidates who will do battle on the “main stage” during the first televised GOP debate. </p>
<p>As expected, Donald Trump will take center stage as the undisputed leader of the polls, with an average reported by Fox News of 23%. </p>
<p>But while Fox is using polling and statistical analysis to justify their selections, their methods of calculation strike us – two statistics professors from Oklahoma State University – as too fast and loose.</p>
<h2>The answers Fox got</h2>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/how-fox-news-determined-who-qualified-for-prime-time-gop-debate/">Fox News</a>, these candidates will be joining Trump based on their polling averages: former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (13%), Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin (11%), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (7%), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (7%), Senators Ted Cruz of Texas (6%), Rand Paul of Kentucky (5%) and Marco Rubio of Florida (5%), and Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey (3%) and John Kasich of Ohio (3%).</p>
<p>The remaining seven candidates (Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and John Gilmore) will duke it out at the debate undercard to be held earlier that day. </p>
<h2>The Perry question</h2>
<p>The notable candidate missing from the main event is Perry, whose recent tete-a-tete with Trump has received a lot of attention from the media. Perry referred to Trump as “<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/07/23/perry-to-trump-basically-dont-mess-with-texans-who-are-running-for-president/">a cancer on conservatism</a>,” while Trump suggested that Perry should be required to take an IQ test prior to being allowed on the debate stage. </p>
<p>Fox News did not go out of its way to ensure Perry a spot, even though the fireworks that may have resulted could have scored big for the news network.</p>
<p>Had Fox News decided to include Perry, it could have picked a combination of polls that put Perry ahead of Kasich. For instance, the following five give Perry the lead: <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/273490309/CBS-News-GOP-presidential-candidates-poll">CBS News</a> (completed on Aug. 2), <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/03/poll-new-high-for-trump-new-low-for-clinton/">Fox News</a> (August 2), <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-surges-new-nbc-news-wsj-poll-n402036">NBC/Wall Street Journal</a> (July 30), <a href="http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/">Reuters/IPSOS </a>(July 28) and <a href="http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/">Reuters/IPSOS</a> (July 22).</p>
<p>The drawback to using those five polls is that they are not the five most recent, they use different data collection methods and they use different sampled populations. The five Fox actually picked have the advantage of consistency.</p>
<h2>Points for consistency</h2>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/how-fox-news-determined-who-qualified-for-prime-time-gop-debate/">Fox</a>, the five polls utilized were CBS News, Bloomberg, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University and their own Fox News poll. </p>
<p>An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which did fall within the five most recent, did not meet Fox’s criteria for inclusion because it did not include Kasich, the network <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/how-fox-news-determined-who-qualified-for-prime-time-gop-debate/">reported</a>. </p>
<p>A second important aspect of the inclusion criteria was the restriction against automated phone interviews. All the polls utilized consisted of live interviews, and both landlines and cellphones were included. This aspect reduced <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2015.1034389">the bias inherent</a> in using automated polling and relying solely on landline phone numbers. </p>
<p>A third consistency in the five polls selected was their sampled population. All five polls sampled “registered voters.” Keeping to a single population ensures that the polls can be compared to one another, and that the calculated average is meaningful.</p>
<h2>Points off for averaging errors</h2>
<p>The real concern is the method Fox News used to obtain their averages. </p>
<p>They employed the most basic method imaginable. The rank order was determined by a simple arithmetic average of publicly available results. Averages were rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. The sample sizes and margins of error of the five polls were ignored in the calculations. </p>
<p>To see why this is an issue, let us look at an extreme case. In Poll A, 200 registered Republicans are asked their preference. In that sample, 5% prefer Perry and 2% prefer Kasich. In Poll B, 2,500 registered Republicans are asked their preferences. In this poll, 2% prefer Perry and 4% prefer Kasich. Simply averaging the percentages puts Perry on the stage with an average of 3.5% to Kasich’s 3%. </p>
<p>However, between the two polls, only 60 people preferred Perry – 10 from Poll A and 50 from Poll B. A total of 104 preferred Kasich – 4 from Poll A and 100 from Poll B. In this extreme example, Fox’s simple averaging would have put the candidate preferred by 2.2% in the debate and sidelined the candidate preferred by 3.9%.</p>
<p>Weighted averages matter.</p>
<p>Fox didn’t use weighted averages, but they used the concept to justify their result.</p>
<p>The network <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/how-fox-news-determined-who-qualified-for-prime-time-gop-debate/">claimed</a> that “given the over 2,400 interviews contained within the five polls, from a purely statistical perspective it is at least 90% likely that the tenth place Kasich is ahead of the eleventh place Perry.” </p>
<h2>No real harm done</h2>
<p>Had Fox use the more correct weighted averaging method, the only change would have been a change in position for Christie and Kasich.</p>
<p>That change is no big deal. And perhaps Fox wanted to use math that is easier to explain to viewers. </p>
<p>But what would have happened if the decision to use unweighted averages resulted in a different lineup? It could have meant that a candidate regulated to the “kiddie table” actually deserved to eat with the adults.</p>
<p>One thing Fox got right: It showed its work, giving voters the ability to see how the selections were made.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fox News is using polling to justify their picks for the GOP debate, but the way they averaged those polls was a little fast and loose.Mark Payton, Head of the Department of Statistics, Oklahoma State UniversityOle J. Forsberg, Visiting Assistant Professor of Statistics, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/454812015-08-04T19:25:41Z2015-08-04T19:25:41ZPolling is more complex than Fox News boss Roger Ailes wants you to know<p>The first Republican presidential debate of the 2016 election cycle will be held on August 6, more than 15 months before the election and almost five months before the Iowa caucus. </p>
<p>Because of the large field of official candidates, Fox News will select just 10 to take part in the debate. The remainder of the field will be invited to a debate “kiddie table” that will be held <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/fox-republican-debate-lowers-threshold-120748.html">earlier that day</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://press.foxnews.com/2015/05/fox-news-and-facebook-partner-to-host-first-republican-presidential-primary-debate-of-2016-election/">Fox News</a> has released the following criteria for trimming down the list of official candidates:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by Fox News leading up to Aug. 4 at 5 p.m. EST. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/6arv5v/july-30--2015---j-j--abrams">Jon Stewart’s quip</a> may not be far wrong: “Ah, so basically they’re going to look at the polls and [Fox News boss] Roger Ailes is going to pick whoever he wants.” </p>
<h2>Which five polls?</h2>
<p>Between the day Donald Trump officially entered the race though August 4, 18 national polls were conducted by dedicated polling firms for major national news sources. Polls were also conducted by major universities. </p>
<p>These polls differed on several important aspects: sample size, voting qualification and telephone use. Each of these differences affects which candidate gets the most support. These differences also raise questions of how – or if – they can be averaged meaningfully. This is the reason behind the Marist Institute of Public Opinion’s <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/08/marist-suspends-gop-polling-ahead-of-fox-debate-211675.html">decision to suspend</a> its Republican polling until after the Fox News decision.</p>
<p>“It’s a bad use of public polls,” Lee Miringoff of Marist told Politico.</p>
<h2>Sample size and precision</h2>
<p>The 18 national polls we identified have sample sizes ranging from 300 to 815. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-margin-of-error-explained-16393">As a general rule</a>, larger sample sizes provide estimates that are more precise. At the top end of the range, a sample size of 815 corresponds to a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.5%; a sample size of 300, to plus or minus 5.7%. </p>
<p>This precision is important for the candidates vying for one of the 10 debate positions. Of the 710 sampled in <a href="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us07302015_U645de.pdf">the July 28 Quinnipiac poll</a>, for example, 3% supported Rick Perry and 6% supported Ben Carson. </p>
<p>This tells us that Carson has more support than Perry in this particular sample. However, it does not follow that Carson has more support among the entire population of Republican primary voters. The margin of error is too large to come to that conclusion. What we can say based on the basis of this poll is that we are 95% confident that Perry’s actual level of support in the entire population is between 0 and 6.5%. Since this interval contains Carson’s estimate, these two candidates are in a statistical tie. </p>
<p>So, the first problem with the method proposed by Fox News is that we can’t say with any certainty which candidates are more popular. </p>
<h2>Voting qualification</h2>
<p>The second issue is one of who will be polled. </p>
<p>If the polling firm is attempting to estimate the candidate support in the general population, then that firm should contact a sample of all US adults. If, however, the firm wants to estimate support within those who will vote in the Republican primaries, then the polling firm should ask only Republicans who will vote in the primaries. </p>
<p>These two populations are very different and will lead to very different results. </p>
<p>In the 18 polls, four different populations of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were sampled: all adults, registered voters, likely voters and primary voters. </p>
<p>Different polling firms used different populations. For instance, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-donald-trump-leads-gop-field-in-2016-presidential-race/">CBS News uses</a> “primary voters.” <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/03/poll-new-high-for-trump-new-low-for-clinton/">Fox News uses</a> “registered voters.”</p>
<p>The different sampled populations can give a different ordering of candidate preference. Which of these four populations is of most interest to Fox News? Fox News isn’t saying. </p>
<h2>Telephone use and accuracy</h2>
<p>The third issue centers on biases in sampling. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2015.1034389">Research we conducted</a> on polling in the 2012 election uncovered a probable reason pollsters predicted a victory of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.</p>
<p>The pollsters were relying too heavily on responses to landline telephones, creating a bias against cellphone-only households. Cellphone-only households, according to the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr039.pdf">Centers for Disease Control</a>, tend to be younger, poorer and urban. Excluding these groups from polling biases the results away from their preferences. </p>
<p>This is the first election where the majority of polling firms are explicitly contacting cellphone numbers in addition to landlines. However, several polls still fail to contact cellphone users. Skipping these people severely biases the estimates.</p>
<p>The upshot is that those Republican candidates who appeal to the younger crowd are disadvantaged in polls that do not explicitly used cellphone numbers in addition to landline numbers. </p>
<h2>A question of averaging</h2>
<p>One last thing Fox isn’t making public is how they intend to average the five polls.</p>
<p>Will they just average the candidate support predictions? Will they weight the predictions based on the sample sizes? If so, which statistical model will they use?</p>
<p>The choices they make can affect who is on stage for the main event. </p>
<p>Take the example of Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio. Simply averaging their support estimates puts Rubio ahead of Huckabee. If the estimates are weighted using their sample size, Huckabee is ahead of Rubio. </p>
<p>Since this just swaps the candidates between the #4 and the #5 spots, it does not affect who is in the debate. It does affect, however, what podium a candidate occupies, with those with highest poll numbers literally getting “center stage.” </p>
<p>Of course, these averaging issues can also affect the all-important #10 spot, which is currently a toss-up between John Kasich and Rick Perry.</p>
<h2>The final 10 are…</h2>
<p>The upshot of this insecurity is that Fox News has wide latitude in this first debate. Could Fox News decide the debate lineup based on something other than the polls? Arguably, is Perry more entertaining on the stage than Kasich? Also of note are the multiple interviews that Perry has given Fox News over the course of the past week. </p>
<p>As it currently stands, <a href="http://www.electoralforensics.org/commentary/?p=4747">we propose that the following</a> nine are safely in the debate: Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie. </p>
<p>The #10 spot most likely goes to John Kasich, who holds a slight edge over Rick Perry. </p>
<p>The remaining six major candidates should not wait for the phone call, unless it is from a polling company.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45481/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Picking 10 top GOP candidates from five national polls isn’t as easy as Fox News wants you to believe. Here are some ways it could – and probably is – going wrong.Mark Payton, Head of the Department of Statistics, Oklahoma State UniversityOle J. Forsberg, Visiting Assistant Professor of Statistics, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/438992015-07-24T17:34:25Z2015-07-24T17:34:25ZCandidates are ignoring race’s crucial role in determining who thrives, struggles<p>Last Saturday, presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley were booed and heckled by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/19/us/protesters-confront-candidates-on-race-at-netroots-nation-conference.html?emc=edit_th_20150719&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=28708558">liberal</a> activists at a town hall discussion at the Netroots Nation annual conference. </p>
<p>Why would attendees at a gathering of left-leaning progressives commandeer the microphone on stage and shout down Democratic White House contenders? Because Sanders and O’Malley, like the rest of the candidates, have built political platforms that largely ignore race.</p>
<p>The activists at the Netroots meeting were angry because Sanders and O’Malley have failed to respond to racial criminal justice issues, largely ignoring recent high-profile cases – such as the death in police custody of <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/sandra-bland-said-she-was-depressed-attempted-suicide-jail-records-n396886">Sandra Bland</a> – and police misconduct involving blacks. Instead, the candidates have focused on economic reforms. But those platforms ignore race too.</p>
<p>Sanders eventually <a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/07/22/bernie_sanders_becomes_the_first_candidate_to_speak_out_on_sandra_bland_we_need_real_police_reform/">denounced</a> the circumstances surrounding the Sandra Bland arrest and has called for police reforms, and Hillary Clinton now <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-clinton-yes-black-lives-matter">appears</a> to have embraced the Black Lives Matter movement. </p>
<p>Still, none of the White House hopefuls has publicly discussed the role that demographics – particularly race – play in determining who will thrive, and who will struggle, in today’s economy.</p>
<h2>Cookie-cutter platforms</h2>
<p>Sanders, who is a socialist and the most progressive candidate in the presidential race, has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanders-on-americas-grotesquely-unfair-society/">characterized</a> the well-documented wealth and income gaps as “grotesquely” unfair. His proposed solutions, though, are generic and race-neutral ones, like raising the minimum wage or creating jobs in low-income neighborhoods. </p>
<p>Likewise, Hillary Clinton’s recently announced economic policy <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/12/politics/hillary-clinton-economic-policy-speech/">platform</a> largely steers clear of race and instead focuses on stagnating middle-class wages.</p>
<p>Few Republicans have discussed racial justice issues either, and Jeb Bush has now <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jeb-bush-calls-black-lives-matter-slogan">dismissed</a> the <a href="http://blacklivesmatter.com">Black Lives Matter movement</a> as merely a “slogan.” </p>
<p>But, about eight months before he <a href="http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presidential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/">launched</a> his presidential campaign, Senator Rand Paul, a libertarian-leaning Republican, wrote an <a href="http://time.com/3111474/rand-paul-ferguson-police/">op-ed</a> that discusses the racial disparities in the criminal justice system. The opinion, written in response to the violence in Ferguson, Missouri, after the police shooting death of Michael Brown, argues that “[a]nyone who thinks race does not skew the application of criminal justice in this country is just not paying close enough attention.” </p>
<p>Since announcing his candidacy for president, though, Rand has largely avoided discussing racial criminal justice issues. While his official <a href="https://randpaul.com/issue/criminal-justice-reforms">web page</a> refers to an “unjust criminal justice system,” his campaign has not focused on how the criminal justice system disproportionately harms black Americans. </p>
<p>Likewise, rather than focusing on police misconduct as a cause for the recent riots in Baltimore, he instead <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/04/29/what-rand-paul-used-to-say-about-criminal-justice-just-a-few-months-ago-and-what-he-says-today-they-dont-sound-quite-the-same/">suggested</a> that they resulted from a breakdown in family structure, a lack of fathers and the lack of a moral code in society.</p>
<p>While Republican candidate Rick Perry <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/02/us-usa-election-perry-idUSKCN0PC2OU20150702">mentioned</a> black poverty in a recent speech, his <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/rick-perry-lays-out-his-economic-plan/video/bc-4334883923001">response</a> was also a race-neutral one that focused on giving people at the bottom of the economic ladder a chance to climb.</p>
<p>For the most part, the candidates’ proposals to address income and wage inequality are generic and nonracial: raise the minimum wage, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-offers-her-vision-of-a-fairness-economy-to-close-the-income-gap.html?emc=edit_th_20150714&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=28708558">expand</a> social security, <a href="http://time.com/3955359/hillary-clinton-economy-2016-presidential-election/">tax</a> the ultra-rich or <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/02/us-usa-election-perry-idUSKCN0PC2OU20150702">increase</a> the earned income tax credit. None of the proposals acknowledges that, because of the widening wealth gap, race and ethnicity have now become almost decisive factors in determining whether a family will thrive or struggle financially.</p>
<h2>Who thrives and who struggles</h2>
<p>The authors of a series of <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/household-financial-stability/the-demographics-of-wealth">essays</a> recently issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis show that race remains a powerful, if not conclusive, predictor of whether you will be a financial “thriver” or “struggler.” </p>
<p>After analyzing data collected in the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances from 1989 to 2013, the authors found that about a quarter of American families are financially thriving, while the other 75% are struggling.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/%7E/media/Files/PDFs/HFS/essays/HFS-Essay-1-2015-Race-Ethnicity-and-Wealth.pdf">Thriving</a> families are middle-aged, white or Asian college graduates who have above-average incomes and have amassed enormous amounts of wealth. In contrast, strugglers are young, black or Hispanic, are less educated, have little or no wealth and work in low-wage jobs. The essays reveal that income – and particularly wealth – gaps among whites, blacks and Hispanics are staggering.</p>
<p>Average income for blacks and Hispanics is 40% lower than for whites. Even worse, average wealth held by Hispanic and black families is 90% lower. While the presidential candidates’ proposals to increase the minimum wage might help close the income gap, a little more take-home pay would do little to close the staggering wealth gap.</p>
<p>The essays also reveal that wealth patterns for racial groups have changed little over the last 25 years and, except for Asian families, may now be permanent. For example, from 1989 to 2013, white families have consistently held the greatest amount of wealth, followed by Asian, then Hispanic, and finally black families. Although Asian family wealth has steadily increased over the 25-year period because of higher college completion rates for young Asians, financial patterns have remained virtually unchanged for whites, Hispanics and blacks.</p>
<h2>Race-neutral solutions won’t address the roots</h2>
<p>Increasing college graduate rates for blacks and Latinos or making colleges free (as Sanders has <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/16/bernie-sanders-on-americas-grotesquely-unfair-society/">proposed</a>) are race-neutral solutions that could ostensibly close the wealth gap. But, even if more young blacks and Latinos receive college degrees, the wealth gaps won’t go away.</p>
<p>The Fed researchers considered whether education, rather than race, was the main cause for the wealth gap. They <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/%7E/media/Files/PDFs/HFS/essays/HFS-Essay-1-2015-Race-Ethnicity-and-Wealth.pdf">found</a> that age and education play only small roles in explaining the gaps. Racial and ethnic differences in financial well-being remain even after accounting for the age and educational attainment of the head of the family.</p>
<p>In the last decade, the US population became more racially and ethnically <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html">diverse</a> than it has ever been. If political leaders continue to ignore widening wealth inequality, the gaps may become permanent, and that could be destabilizing both politically and economically. It will be harder to boost the economy in the future if blacks and Latinos are permanently relegated to an economic underclass that has little wealth.</p>
<p>It is not particularly surprising that the presidential hopefuls shy away from saying that race may determine a family’s financial well-being. Though a recent New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/24/us/poll-shows-most-americans-think-race-relations-are-bad.html?emc=edit_th_20150724&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=28708558&_r=0">poll</a> now shows that most Americans think race relations in this country are generally bad, making such a statement in a political climate that purports to be colorblind might quickly end the candidate’s presidential aspirations.</p>
<p>Until politicians are willing to admit that whether you thrive or struggle financially may be influenced by your race, however, the United States will remain racially split into groups of a few haves – and a lot of have-nots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/43899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Last Saturday, presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley were booed and heckled by liberal activists at a town hall discussion at the Netroots Nation annual conference. Why would attendees…Mechele Dickerson, Professor of Law, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/348572014-12-01T20:36:15Z2014-12-01T20:36:15ZExplainer: The grand jury in the Darren Wilson case and beyond<p>Now that the grand jury has decided not to indict Officer Darren Wilson in the shooting death of Michael Brown, an unarmed 18-year old man, there remain many questions about this grand jury and generally about the use of grand juries in the United States. </p>
<h2>The legal basis: federal and state</h2>
<p>The fact that twelve randomly picked impartial citizens played such a key role in the matter is a unique feature of the criminal justice system in the US.</p>
<p>The US Constitution and all state constitutions provide for grand juries. In federal criminal cases, federal grand juries consisting of sixteen to twenty-three members make all decisions to indict, and at least twelve grand jurors are necessary in an indictment, commonly called a “true bill.” </p>
<p>Provisions in state constitutions vary in terms of the size of grand juries. The Missouri Constitution calls for a twelve member grand jury, nine of which must concur in an indictment. </p>
<h2>The make up of the Ferguson grand jury</h2>
<p>Grand jurors in St Louis County are chosen from the same jury pool as trial jurors. A judge selects the grand jurors, and the judge tries to ensure that jurors are representative of the community. </p>
<p>The grand jurors who heard the case involving Michael Brown’s death were chosen in May, long before his death in August. </p>
<p>The judge chose nine white jurors and three African American jurors. Seven jurors were men and five jurors were women. They were from all parts of St Louis County, and the percentage of African Americans (25%) on the grand jury roughly equals the percentage of African Americans (24%) in St Louis County. The grand jury’s term was originally four months long – the normal term – but a judge extended the term in order for the grand jury to consider possible charges against Darren Wilson.</p>
<h2>The work of the grand jury</h2>
<p>In all felony cases, there must be a “probable cause determination” that a crime has been committed. Probable cause means that there must be some evidence of each element of the offense. Most serious criminal cases usually begin with the prosecutor charging a person with one or more felonies. After the person is charged, the prosecutor has the option of bringing the case to the grand jury for the probable cause determination or to go before a judge for a probable cause determination through a preliminary hearing. </p>
<p>At a preliminary hearing, the accused is present along with his or her lawyer who can cross-examine witnesses. In the grand jury, however, only the prosecutor is present along with the grand jurors: both the prosecutor and the grand jurors can question each witness. </p>
<p>The grand jury process excludes the suspect and the defense attorney because it is not supposed to be a mini-trial but rather solely determine if there is some evidence to support felony charges. Like a preliminary hearing, it is a check on whether there is probable cause to support felony charges but is a secret proceeding that is usually much quicker than a preliminary hearing. </p>
<p>In St Louis County, prosecutors usually bring serious felony cases or cases with numerous witnesses to the grand jury rather than a preliminary hearing because a police officer who has investigated a case can summarize his or her findings and witness statements to present the case more quickly than at a preliminary hearing where witnesses would be examined and cross-examined.</p>
<h2>What happened in the Darren Wilson case</h2>
<p>In this case, the prosecutor did not bring charges against Darren Wilson. Instead, the prosecutor used the grand jury in an investigative role to determine whether to indict Darren Wilson. Under existing law, the prosecutor has discretion to proceed in this way. Unlike a regular grand jury hearing where a prosecutor presents just enough evidence to support probable cause, the grand jury heard all of the evidence that the prosecutor had on the case as it considered. </p>
<p>Using a grand jury in this way is unusual. Prosecutors go this route in cases involving possible excessive force by police or possible charges of corruption against elected officials. For example, a grand jury in <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/29/grand-jury-decision-eric-garner_n_6240348.html">New York City</a> has been investigating the chokehold death of Eric Garner by a police officer since September. In August, a grand jury in <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/15/grand-jury-indicts-texas-gov-rick-perry-/14138843/">Texas</a> indicted Texas Governor Rick Perry on two felony counts for abusing his official power and coercing a public servant in an effort to force a district attorney to step down after she was arrested on drunk-driving charges.</p>
<p>In St Louis, Darren Wilson was permitted to testify, and he injected the defenses of a justified use of force and self-defense. The testimony by Darren Wilson is very unusual, because normally the suspect or, if charges have been filed, the accused, does not have an opportunity to testify before a grand jury. Indeed, in <a href="http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/90-1972.ZO.html">United States v. Williams</a>(1992), the US Supreme Court observed that the accused neither has a right to testify nor to have the prosecution present exculpatory evidence (favorable to the defendent) to the grand jury. </p>
<p>Like any other witness testifying before a grand jury, Darren Wilson was not permitted to have an attorney present. The transcript of his testimony indicates that he was permitted to tell his version of what occurred. There were few hard questions put to him by either the prosecutors or any of the grand jurors.</p>
<p>Before the grand jury began their deliberations, the prosecutors instructed the grand jury that to return an indictment against Darren Wilson they had to find probable cause that he committed an offense. They were also told that to indict they would have to find <em>no</em> probable cause that either he acted in self-defense or that his use of force was justified under the law. These instructions likely led the grand jury, who heard conflicting testimony about what occurred, to decide not to indict Darren Wilson.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter A. Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now that the grand jury has decided not to indict Officer Darren Wilson in the shooting death of Michael Brown, an unarmed 18-year old man, there remain many questions about this grand jury and generally…Peter A. Joy, Henry Hitchcock Professor of Law, School of Law, Washington University in St LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/50512012-01-29T19:33:53Z2012-01-29T19:33:53ZOops … I was wrong: why Perry fell and Gingrich is rising<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7192/original/hv2gn8fk-1327631311.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rick Perry failed to distinguish himself among an uninspiring field of contenders.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-president-of-the-united-states-will-be-rick-perry-2831">I stated on The Conversation</a> last August that Rick Perry would become the next President of the United States in 2013. Instead, the Texas governor <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-20/perry-bows-out2c-endorses-gingrich/3783728">dropped out of the race</a> last week, unable to establish himself among an uninspiring field of Republican candidates. Instead, Newt Gingrich has become the story of the race – a possibility I dismissed entirely.</p>
<p>To paraphrase <a href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Galbraith.html">John Kenneth Galbraith</a>, The experience of being disastrously wrong is salutary; no political scientist should be denied it, and not many are.</p>
<h2>Mea culpa</h2>
<p>Why did I get this so wrong? I was certainly guilty of conflating Perry’s potential for his actual capacity. </p>
<p>He had a genuine story to tell about how to run a big state, create jobs in a nation that was otherwise losing them, and translate his religious faith into real-world politics. On each of these scores he beat Barack Obama hands down.</p>
<p>On paper, Perry was an ideal Republican candidate. But then his own character intervened. He seems to have decided either to treat the whole campaign with a stunning lack of seriousness or to have accepted very bad advice on how to plot a nomination fight – probably both.</p>
<p>His lack of seriousness was captured most jaw-droppingly during one of the many GOP debates when he could list <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/45233363/Gov_Rick_Perry_s_Memory_Stumble_Fatal">only two of the three</a> departments of the federal government he would close. This episode was typical of a wider failure to prepare, learn his lines, and know his policies. Less praying and more prepping were in order. Christ would surely have understood?</p>
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<h2>Right direction, wrong choices</h2>
<p>The campaign to be president is the most exacting process in democratic politics. American presidents are tested during this eighteen-month endurance test as very few leaders are elsewhere. Winning the contest confers a legitimacy to govern that no other political system demands. It frequently leaves them exhausted and ill-prepared for the rigours of actually governing.</p>
<p>And yet no one seems to have explained to Rick Perry that this test was one to be met not elided. Instead, he came to rely on folksy homilies delivered to his base. Throughout, he was content to say the things religious conservatives like to hear, blind to how this would play with more secular, Reagan Democrat types – the constituency that gets GOP candidates into the White House.</p>
<p>Republicans must tack right to win the nomination, then tack back to the centre to win the general election. Democrats are subject to the same electoral law (left then centre). Like an incompetent sailor, Perry thought that tacking endlessly to the right would bring him safe home.</p>
<p>By <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/08/29/perry-again-calls-social-security-a-ponzi-scheme/">calling social security a Ponzi scheme</a> he even managed to make middle class conservatives wary of him. It may be, but both Democrat and Republican voters, especially those fifty-years and older, hope it won’t collapse before they have drawn on it. Perry did not give them that confidence.</p>
<h2>A fallow field</h2>
<p>In my defence, history was on Perry’s side. In choosing their presidents, Americans have shown a marked preference for Southern and Western governors: Reagan (California), Carter (Georgia), Clinton (Arkansas), and Bush Jr. (Texas). Indeed, from 1964 until Obama in 2008, no man was elected president from anywhere except California and the South (Romney take note). Like me, Perry was guilty of assuming having the Texas Governor’s Mansion on his resume would perpetuate this trend.</p>
<p>So I was wrong about Perry. Sorry. Oops.</p>
<p>What of the men that outperformed him? Conservative embarrassment must surely accompany Newt Gingrich’s current ascendency. This was the man who single-handedly engineered President Clinton’s political comeback in the middle-1990s. Through over-reach – a propensity the US system rarely rewards and often exposes – and hubris – a trait the Constitution seeks to blunt by making the accrual of power very difficult – Gingrich went from the leader of a putative Republican revolution in 1994 to <a href="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/dole-releases-stinging-critique-of-gingrich/">arguing about how Congress should order ice cubes</a>. </p>
<p>This fall was accompanied by proven <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/govt/leadership/stories/012297.htm">ethics violations</a> and the <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2937633#.TyILCuP9NuA">leaving of his cancer-stricken first wife</a> for his second; he is now on his third. He’s a man of considerable resolve, of intellectual brilliance even – but of the steady capacity for executive office? He has not yet proven so.</p>
<p>His stunning victory in the South Carolina primary might be interpreted as the GOP forgiving him his past indiscretions. More likely, his win is testament to Mitt Romney’s failure to close the deal, despite some six years of trying. Exit polling suggests that Republicans voted for Gingrich not because he was sufficiently conservative but because Romney was not.</p>
<p>Romney might be able to win the general election but this is meaningless unless he can win the nomination first. Gingrich can win the nomination – unlikely but possible – but will have too much baggage to defeat Obama in the general – though the debates will be great scraps.</p>
<h2>Barack’s blessing</h2>
<p>Why should a conservative find all this embarrassing? </p>
<p>When we reflect on how polarising a figure Obama has been for right-wing politics in America it is remarkable the most able candidates the GOP can present to voters are so compromised. Obama is blessed with poor opponents. So was FDR – an allusion the incumbent will want made often between now and November.</p>
<p>The situation is not unique to Republicans – its echoes that of the Democrats in 2004. Then, as now, it was acknowledged that the incumbent president was failing (look at Bush and Iraq in 2004 and Obama and the economy in 2012) but not enough to make his prospects fatal. Many potential candidates thought “I’ll sit this one out”. Hillary Clinton did this in 2004, letting John Kerry take the loss; Jeb Bush is doing it now, in preparation for a run (against Michelle?) in 2016. Americans do love their dynasties.</p>
<p>On his own terms, Barack Obama has been a poor president but his presidency has not been a disaster. Avoiding that, depressing as it may sound, is increasingly regarded as a significant accomplishment. Presidential failure is basic to American politics. Somehow this got lost in the clamour to anoint Obama as the world’s saviour in 2008. His greatest achievement – far more impressive than his canonisation three years ago – will be to survive and scrape back in come November.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>I stated on The Conversation last August that Rick Perry would become the next President of the United States in 2013. Instead, the Texas governor dropped out of the race last week, unable to establish…Timothy J. Lynch, Associate Professor in Political Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/28312011-08-12T04:34:48Z2011-08-12T04:34:48ZThe next president of the United States will be Rick Perry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/2877/original/Rick_Perry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Change will again come to the White House. And it will come courtesy of another Texan.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Alex Jones/pool</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We now know the name of the next president of the United States: <a href="http://www.rickperry.org/">Rick Perry</a>. The range of poor choices facing Republicans – from the bland <a href="http://www.mittromney.com/">Mitt Romney</a> to the polarising <a href="http://www.michelebachmann.com/">Michele Bachman</a> – has been transformed by Perry’s announcement.</p>
<p>Predicting with confidence, so early in the race, why this Texan will win is hazardous, but here goes:</p>
<p>First, consider <a href="http://www.barackobama.com/get-involved">the man he will run against</a> through November 2012. No president has been re-elected with an economy in such bad shape. </p>
<p>No president since Franklin Roosevelt – the greatest president the Democrats ever had – has been elected with unemployment higher at the close of his term than at the beginning.</p>
<h2>Obama’s failure</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2008-01-26/politics/obama.transcript_1_change-time-iowa?_s=PM:POLITICS">change mantra</a> of the 2008 campaign will haunt Barack Obama. He has recently had to redefine “change” as a long-term goal, hardly the import of his soaring rhetoric three years ago. The uncomfortable reality, elided by his supporters, is that Obama has changed very little, either since 2008 or in his pre-presidential career.</p>
<p>In twelve years as an academic at the Harvard Law School he published nothing of consequence. His early fame came from a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dreams-My-Father-Story-Inheritance/dp/1400082773">best-selling book</a> about his absent father. His community organisation years in Chicago are nebulous, producing more myth than substantive achievement. His life-long struggle was not the civil rights movement. Rather, he survived, surprisingly intact, from the suffocating affection and molly-coddling of his white Kansan grandparents.</p>
<p>As has become clear to many, including his supporters, in recent weeks, Obama’s inexperience has compromised his execution of the office of president. He has never run anything of note. Not a city, not a state. Editing the Harvard Law Review hardly counts.</p>
<p>He is proving to be a mediocre politician. The obvious contrast is with the last great liberal hope, Bill Clinton, perhaps the most astute politician of his generation – compromised by his sexual preferences not his political instincts. And a governor of some success before becoming president.</p>
<p>Obama’s poor skills as a negotiator – exposed in the recent budget showdown with Congress, bemoaned most intensely by his own side – are a product of his zero-experience in an executive role. </p>
<p>The robust ego that compensated for the absence of an executive track-record – and which made him such a charismatic campaigner – has made Obama a meagre political dealmaker.</p>
<h2>A record of achievement</h2>
<p>Second, compare this biography – which Republicans will recite and relay with ever greater relish – with that of his challenger.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.governor.state.tx.us/">Governor Rick Perry has run Texas</a>, America’s second largest state – the equivalent of Australia – since 2000. He is currently the second longest serving governor in the US, and the longest in Texan history.</p>
<p>Where other governors have presided over job losses during the Great Recession, he has claimed credit for making them. Texas has become a magnet for inward American migration. Californians – Californians! – are now moving there.</p>
<h2>The issues at stake</h2>
<p>Obama can match none of this. Contra-Perry, his executive record consists of a double-dip recession and the stagnation of the jobs market – both purchased at the price of an enormous stimulus. </p>
<p>And this is before we consider how a precipitate withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq and a stalled war in Libya will play with voters. Killing Osama bin Laden is becoming a distant memory.</p>
<p>Other Republican challengers can and will dwell on Obama’s record. Only Perry can really expose Obama’s executive failures by pointing to the success of his own. Change is coming to America – again, it will be wearing a Stetson.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/2831/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We now know the name of the next president of the United States: Rick Perry. The range of poor choices facing Republicans – from the bland Mitt Romney to the polarising Michele Bachman – has been transformed…Timothy J. Lynch, Associate Professor in Political Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.