tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/right-wing-extremism-30103/articlesRight-wing extremism – The Conversation2024-02-20T18:00:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239552024-02-20T18:00:04Z2024-02-20T18:00:04ZChristchurch terrorist discussed attacks online a year before carrying them out, new research reveals<p>In March and August 2018, up to a year before he attacked two Christchurch mosques, Brenton Tarrant posted publicly online that he planned to do so. Until now, these statements have not been identified.</p>
<p>In fact, for four years before his attack, Tarrant had been posting anonymously but publicly on the online message board 4chan about the need to attack people of colour in locations of “significance”, including places of worship.</p>
<p>In its final report in 2020, the <a href="https://christchurchattack.royalcommission.nz/">royal commission of inquiry</a> into the terror attacks wrote: </p>
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<p>The individual claimed that he was not a frequent commenter on extreme right-wing sites and that YouTube was, for him, a far more significant source of information and inspiration.
Although he did frequent extreme right-wing discussion boards such as those on 4chan and 8chan, the evidence we have seen is indicative of more substantial use of YouTube and is therefore consistent with what he told us.</p>
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<p>Given the importance of online environments in radicalising lone actor terrorists, we questioned this and set out to investigate whether right-wing websites were important in Tarrant’s radicalisation.</p>
<p>What we found overturns a great deal of what we thought we knew about him. It also raises serious questions, not only about why this posting was not detected before the attack, but also why it has not been discovered in the five years since the March 15 attacks. </p>
<h2>Beyond the manifesto</h2>
<p>Having the opportunity to see Tarrant interact candidly with his online community, we see that much of what he stated in his manifesto was propaganda.</p>
<p>When he wrote in his manifesto that he was driven to violence by the lack of a political solution – a realisation that came to him in 2017 – we now know he had been calling for attacks against civilians at least as early as 2015.</p>
<p>Where he claimed he was not driven by antisemitism, we found hatred and conspiratorial distrust of Jews were central to his entire worldview.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-life-means-life-why-the-court-had-to-deliver-an-unprecedented-sentence-for-the-christchurch-terrorist-145091">When life means life: why the court had to deliver an unprecedented sentence for the Christchurch terrorist</a>
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<p>Although he claimed in his manifesto that he carried out his attack to preserve diversity and respect for all cultures, the violent racism and Islamophobia in his posting sets him apart, even in the darkest corners of 4chan.</p>
<p>We will be publishing more about Tarrant’s online history, including what radicalised him and what lessons can be learned. Here we introduce some of our initial findings. </p>
<p>Among other revelations, we show that there were numerous opportunities for the public and New Zealand and Australian security services to observe him making very threatening statements online. </p>
<p>We’ve chosen to repeat only a small number of Tarrant’s statements, given their highly offensive nature. However, we still advise caution before reading further.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/out-of-the-shadows-why-making-nzs-security-threat-assessment-public-for-the-first-time-is-the-right-move-211183">Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move</a>
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<h2>How we found the posts</h2>
<p>Because 4chan posts are anonymous, we used a combination of indicators to identify Tarrant. 4chan’s “politically incorrect” board – referred to as /pol/ – provides the time, date and location of each post, allowing us to match this against Tarrant’s travel to numerous countries over five years.</p>
<p>Tarrant also frequently provided personal information in his posts, and he used the same distinctive language. In some cases, he repeated points we know he made elsewhere. He openly and proudly stated his Australian identity, even as he called for violence.</p>
<p>He also often made specific grammatical errors which make his posting stand out. He uses this style in online writing samples as early as 2011, in his 2019 manifesto, and in a great deal of online posting in between. In combination, these indicators identify Tarrant. </p>
<p>Our team of four researchers reviewed thousands of anonymous posts and hundreds of threads on /pol/. We used the platform’s search function for particular words, phrases and images. As a team we carefully evaluated all posts which included several of the above indicators.</p>
<p>We maintained a very high evidence threshold for including posts in our analysis. We excluded some important statements that were almost certainly written by him, but for which only one or two of the above indicators were present.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>By 2015, Tarrant was calling for mass violence against people of colour. Inspired by Dylann Roof’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/17/878828088/5-years-after-charleston-church-massacre-what-have-we-learned">massacre of nine Black worshippers</a> in a church in Charleston, South Carolina, Tarrant excitedly claimed “violence is the last resort of a cornered animal”, and “it was always going to come to this”.</p>
<p>It was here Tarrant made clear that white nationalist extremists should target innocent victims in locations of “significance”, such as places of worship.</p>
<p>When other posters claimed Roof should have targeted a “ghetto”, Tarrant became frustrated. He explained that attacking unarmed people in a church is a “very simple tactic” necessary to provoke people of colour into retaliating. He used a highly racist phrase common on the /pol/ board to refer to this strategy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/using-ai-to-monitor-the-internet-for-terror-content-is-inescapable-but-also-fraught-with-pitfalls-222408">Using AI to monitor the internet for terror content is inescapable – but also fraught with pitfalls</a>
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<p>For at least four years, then, Tarrant contemplated and planned on killing people in a location of emotional importance such as a school or place of worship. </p>
<p>In fact, he glorified a wide range of violence, including school and public shootings, the perpetrators of which were driven by psychological or other motives rather than white nationalist ideology.</p>
<p>He advocated for and praised the sadistic and brutal killing of innocent civilians. The key for Tarrant was that this violence was perpetrated by white men. For him, any white violence might trigger the race war and segregation he desired.</p>
<p>As he travelled the world between 2014 and 2018, Tarrant became increasingly focused on Muslims. His hatred persisted after arriving in New Zealand. Sometimes it spiralled into unhinged tirades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-ideology-detecting-algorithms-catch-online-extremism-before-it-takes-hold-200629">Can ideology-detecting algorithms catch online extremism before it takes hold?</a>
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<p>In one thread, he claimed he would form and fund an armed band of 4chan users to conduct ethnic cleansing in the Balkans. Some of his posting is unusually violent even within the extremism of /pol/. With hindsight at least, it suggests potential opportunities for detection, most obviously by Australian authorities. </p>
<p>For example, in that same thread, he identified himself as Australian four times, and brazenly wrote there was nothing the Australian government could do to stop him. </p>
<p>At the moment of this violent fantasy, he emailed a gun club in Dunedin stating his plans to move to New Zealand. In the same week, he made donations to international far-right leaders.</p>
<h2>Operational Security?</h2>
<p>The royal commission into the Christchurch terror attacks concluded Tarrant made only “limited lapses” in operational security during his time in New Zealand between late 2017 and March 2019.</p>
<p>This is not the case. He posted regularly on /pol/, which is freely and publicly accessible. His posting was visible to numerous others whose identities he could not possibly know.</p>
<p>Two threads in March and August of 2018 in particular show his hatred of and plans to attack the Muslim community. As such, they presented opportunities for his detection.</p>
<p>In these threads, Tarrant and other users posted angrily about the spread of immigrants in New Zealand, and particularly the presence of mosques in small towns. Very soon, a group of anonymous posters, including Tarrant, discussed violence against the buildings (and the communities that gather in them).</p>
<p>When another user posted an image of a box of matches in reference to the mosques, Tarrant wrote “Soon”.</p>
<p>Revealing he was in Dunedin, Tarrant expressed his anger at the presence of mosques in that city, and in Christchurch and Ashburton to the north, using highly abusive language. When other users called on him to act, he wrote: “I have a plan to stop it. Just hold on.”</p>
<p>Far from maintaining tight operational security as he planned his attack, Tarrant openly (albeit anonymously) discussed violence against mosques in the South Island while in New Zealand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-royal-commission-report-on-the-christchurch-atrocity-is-a-beginning-not-an-end-151663">The royal commission report on the Christchurch atrocity is a beginning, not an end</a>
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<h2>Preventing it happening again</h2>
<p>The 4chan community was crucial in Tarrant’s radicalisation (and the examples given here are just a portion of what we have found). </p>
<p>Given what we know about the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19434472.2020.1862274">importance of online environments in the radicalisation</a> of other white nationalist terrorists, it is disturbing this aspect of Tarrant’s path to March 15 has not been investigated more thoroughly.</p>
<p>After all, his final words before the attack were released on the imageboard 8chan, but also intended for 4chan: “It’s been a long ride […] you are all top blokes and the best bunch of cobbers a man could ask for”.</p>
<p>It is hard to imagine a clearer signpost that the real nature of his radicalisation could be found on those forums.</p>
<p>Five years later, it seems we are only beginning to understand why he committed the atrocity, what might have been done to stop it, and how government agencies can work together with specialist extremism researchers to prevent it happening again.</p>
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<p><em>More information about our study will be released at <a href="https://www.heiaglobal.com/">heiaglobal.com</a>. Our research was approved by the University of Auckland Human Participant Ethics Committee. A paper based on this study has been submitted for peer review and publication.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wilson is the co-founder and director of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ethan Renner, Jack Smylie, and Michal Dziwulski do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Five years on from the attacks, a detailed investigation of the shooter’s online radicalisation shows he was openly posting about his plans. Why was it missed and what can we learn?Chris Wilson, Co-founder and director of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA) and director, Master of Conflict and Terrorism Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauEthan Renner, Researcher, Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauJack Smylie, Research Analyst, Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauMichal Dziwulski, Researcher, Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159472023-10-18T18:03:12Z2023-10-18T18:03:12ZHouse speaker paralysis is confusing – a political scientist explains what’s happening<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554593/original/file-20231018-15-k8hk5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C6448%2C4289&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jim Jordan, center, has been working feverishly to line up support for his speakership.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressSpeaker/fa407677d9f7487b8ebce89fe26998b7/photo">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political observers, most Americans and even members of Congress can’t remember a battle for the post of speaker of the U.S. House as fraught as the one that began back in January 2023 and continues still, 10 months later. </p>
<p>On Jan. 7, California Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy finally became speaker <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/us/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy.html">after 15 rounds of voting</a>. But on Oct. 3, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mccarthy-gaetz-speaker-motion-to-vacate-congress-327e294a39f8de079ef5e4abfb1fa555">he was ousted</a>. On Oct. 17 and again on Oct. 18, Ohio Republican <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jim-jordan-house-speaker-mccarthy-trump-f2b2bf9dc834742bde93d5fc918d9940">Jim Jordan came up short</a> in two rounds of voting to replace McCarthy.</p>
<p>The reason it’s so hard to recall a parallel is that there isn’t one – at least not since the 1850s, which saw a fight over the speakership that took nearly <a href="https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1851-1900/The-longest-and-most-contentious-Speaker-election-in-its-history/">two months and 133 rounds of voting</a>. </p>
<p>Along with all manner of other inauspicious “firsts” in American politics over the last few years – a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-criminal-referral-of-trump-means-a-constitutional-law-expert-explains-the-jan-6-committee-action-196841">violent attempt to overturn a presidential election</a> in the halls of Congress and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-serious-trump-indictment-yet-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-the-charges-of-using-dishonesty-fraud-and-deceit-to-cling-to-power-210600">former president being indicted for the attempt</a>, to name just two – the <a href="https://history.house.gov/People/Office/Speakers-Multiple-Ballots/">century-long tradition</a> of House speakers being quickly and unanimously elected by their party has been similarly blown to pieces.</p>
<p>It can be hard to understand what’s going on. But as a political scientist who co-authored a textbook called “<a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/congress-explained/book276746">Congress Explained</a>,” I have an obligation to give it my best shot. Here are three of the most revealing elements of the ongoing speaker kerfuffle, and how political science can help people – including me – understand them.</p>
<h2>1. Jordan’s attempts to win over his conference</h2>
<p>For a member of Congress with a reputation as a far-right “<a href="https://www.cleveland.com/news/2023/04/as-head-of-weaponization-committee-attack-dog-jim-jordan-insists-hes-not-just-playing-at-political-theater.html">attack dog</a>,” Jordan has spent a lot of the past few days on what congressional experts like to call “<a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/T/The-Politics-of-Herding-Cats">herding cats</a>” – leaders getting their rank-and-file party members in alignment for a vote, even when many of those members want different things. </p>
<p>To get members to go their way, party leaders in Congress frequently use a combination of offers and threats. They can, for example, offer rank-and-filers desired committee assignments or attention to their pet issues. </p>
<p>Alternatively, they can encourage – implicitly or explicitly – someone to challenge the member in a primary, or withhold fundraising support, which is a main responsibility of party leadership. So far, Jordan appears to have favored this more aggressive approach in what The New York Times called a “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/us/house-speaker-republicans-jordan.html">pressure campaign</a>” to round up support from moderate members still unsure about him. </p>
<p>Whether the pressure tactics end up being enough for Jordan to become speaker is an open question. But if he does win the gavel, he’ll need to work even harder to win over his colleagues for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/30/government-shutdown-live-updates-congress-faces-funding-deadline.html">impending budget negotiations</a> and to deal with international crises in the Middle East and Ukraine. And fundraising promises or threats may not be enough.</p>
<h2>2. The votes cast for non-Jordan Republicans</h2>
<p>In a first round of voting on Oct. 17, Jordan fell short of the majority required to become speaker of the house. Not surprisingly, no Democrats backed him. But he also faced <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2023/house-member-speaker-votes/">20 Republican holdouts</a>. Even more <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/17/us/politics/house-speaker-vote-tally.html">Republicans voted for someone else</a> on Oct. 18. And those holdouts didn’t all vote for the same person. Who they did vote for can reveal a lot about the internal dynamics in the Republican Party.</p>
<p>Most of the Republican holdouts voted for either McCarthy or House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who as recently as last week was <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4250062-steve-scalise-wins-gop-speaker-nomination/">touted as McCarthy’s heir</a>. Those members have been extensively quoted as having <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/government-shutdown-lawler-mccarthy-00117589">major problems</a> not just with Jordan as a potential speaker but with the chaos introduced to the broader legislative process by far-right members like Jordan ally Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.</p>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/17/some-ny-gop-house-members-go-it-alone-on-jordan-vote-00122099">Republicans from the New York delegation</a> voted for someone who had first appeared to be a bit of a head-scratcher: New York Republican <a href="https://www.c-span.org/person/?61616/LeeMZeldin">Lee Zeldin</a>, who is no longer a member of Congress.</p>
<p>Although Zeldin – or any other person, even if they are <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-non-member-of-congress-requirements-qualifications-kevin-mccarthy-ouster-donald-trump/">not a member of the House</a> – can be elected speaker under House rules, the votes cast in his direction were purely symbolic. But they were also telling. </p>
<p>These New York Republican representatives, many of whom come from districts won by Democratic President Joe Biden, are sending the message that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/25/new-york-republicans-biden-impeachment-anthony-d-esposito">they and other Republicans</a> elected in competitive districts are the only reason Republicans have a majority in the House at all. They have a point: There is significant evidence that in the 2022 election, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/upshot/trump-effect-midterm-election.html">farther right candidates</a>, particularly those who denied the outcome of the 2020 election, were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/election-deniers-cost-gop/">less popular with voters</a> than their moderate counterparts – and almost cost Republicans the House majority. </p>
<p>The votes for Zeldin, therefore, are a warning to fellow Republicans from the moderates in New York, insisting they not be taken for granted.</p>
<h2>3. The floor action of Congress’ most extreme members</h2>
<p>C-SPAN is not known for its exciting television, but political observers on Tuesday afternoon were treated to a few dramatic moments that – aside from their entertainment value – are emblematic of some of the larger dysfunction and political dynamics that have come to define both parties in recent years. </p>
<p>One instance came during California Democrat Pete Aguilar’s Oct. 17 nomination speech for Democratic speaker candidate Hakeem Jeffries of New York, in which Aguilar noted that Jordan has yet to pass a bill out of the chamber since 2007, when he was first sworn in.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">California Democrat Pete Aguilar nominates Hakeem Jeffries and criticizes Jim Jordan.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In response, far-right Republican members Gaetz and Lauren Boebert of Colorado <a href="https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1714323397050617989">reportedly applauded</a>.</p>
<p>According to the research, Aguilar is not wrong about Jordan’s reputation: The Center for Effective Lawmaking, an academic research center out of Vanderbilt University, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/16/jim-jordan-speaker-legislation-effectiveness/">ranks Jordan near the bottom</a> of his Republican conference on a whole battery of figures measuring legislative effectiveness. </p>
<p>That doesn’t mean that Jordan can’t be an effective speaker. But the willingness of the party to nominate someone with such a thin record of achievement – and Gaetz’s and Boebert’s open enthusiasm for the comment about Jordan’s lack of action – is a monument to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ouster-of-speaker-mccarthy-highlights-house-republican-fractures-in-an-increasingly-polarized-america-214993">increasingly obstructionist politics</a> that continue to plague Congress.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215947/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the 1850s, a fight over the speakership took nearly two months and 133 rounds of voting. But for nearly a century, the majority party in the House has unanimously supported its leader. No longer.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090912023-07-19T18:01:24Z2023-07-19T18:01:24ZJudicial activism has had vastly different impacts in Brazil and the United States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537835/original/file-20230717-230483-yzjj97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C395%2C4551%2C2629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump sits next to Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., in March 2020, when both men led their countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/judicial-activism-has-had-vastly-different-impacts-on-jair-bolsonaro-and-donald-trump" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this summer, Brazil’s top electoral court <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66070923">banned former president Jair Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years</a>. Bolsonaro is 68 and will be unable to run for president until he’s 75.</p>
<p>Five of seven electoral court judges supported the ban on Bolsonaro, who, in the lead-up to the 2022 election, spread misinformation about the legitimacy of Brazil’s electronic voting system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-violence-riot-military-vote-1.6574862">Brazil’s election was marred in violence, with voter suppression tactics occurring before the election</a>. After the vote, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazil-congress-1.6707323">stormed the Presidential Palace, congress and the Supreme Court</a>.</p>
<p>“This response will confirm our faith in the democracy,” <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2023/06/30/bolsonaro-inelegivel-confirma-fe-na-democracia-diz-moraes.htm">said Alexandre de Moraes</a>, a Supreme Court justice and head of the electoral court, as he cast his vote against Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>The former president is expected to appeal the ruling. However, he still faces 15 cases in the electoral court along with several ongoing criminal investigations. They encompass accusations that he improperly used public funds to influence the electoral vote and target his role in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/brazil-election-protests-bolsonaro.html">provoking his followers to violence</a> on Jan. 8, 2023. </p>
<p>A conviction in these cases may render him ineligible to ever run for office.</p>
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<img alt="A man in a mask looks out a shattered window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro looks out from a shattered window of the Planalto Palace after he and his fellow protesters stormed it in Brasilia, Brazil, in January 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons for the United States</h2>
<p>The court’s ruling demonstrates an essential milestone in Brazil’s young democracy while offering lessons for other countries. That’s particularly true for the United States, where former president Donald Trump is the frontrunner to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 despite being under two indictments.</p>
<p>First, it indicates that Brazil’s institutions tend to respond vigorously when they perceive threats to democracy and prioritize preserving institutional stability. </p>
<p>Second, it highlights the proactive engagement of legal systems in addressing substantial modern risks to democracy, like disinformation, hate speech and attempts to manipulate voters. </p>
<p>Finally, it establishes a precedent to punish leaders, even presidents, who try to manipulate voters and stoke polarization. </p>
<p>But there are also important implications about the role of the courts in elections and the impact of judicial activism.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/americas/bolsonaro-trump-brazil-election.html">evidently inspired by his close ally, Trump</a> — followed a similar trajectory after losing his re-election campaign. Like Trump, he resorted to casting doubt and spreading misinformation about his country’s electoral system, ultimately leading to the storming of their respective democratic institutions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1540669147952123904"}"></div></p>
<p>But the aftermath of their actions has unfolded in very different ways.</p>
<p>In Brazil, elections are governed by a federal court, which can determine whether candidates can seek office. The courts reacted swiftly after the Brazilian election, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/30/1185364211/brazil-bolsonaro-court-banned-election">barring Bolsonaro from re-election,</a> citing a threat to the country’s democracy. </p>
<p>American elections, however, are run by individual states, with different policies determining eligibility. Trump’s fate is therefore left up to the voters and the deliberative U.S. judicial system.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds up a yellow soccer jersey with a green No. 10 while another man smiles in an armchair beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jair Bolsonaro presents Donald Trump with a Brazilian national team soccer jersey in the Oval Office of the White House in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Judicial activism</h2>
<p>The striking difference between the two cases is the role of the judiciary in federal elections. In Brazil, the court took on a role as a political regulator, <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/brazils-emerging-judicial-dictatorship/">fuelling a debate about judicial activism.</a></p>
<p>Judicial activism — when the judiciary takes an active role in addressing instability, threats or inequality rather than simply responding to cases brought by third parties — <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923921">is attracting growing interest from scholars.</a> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/confidence-in-the-supreme-court-is-declining-but-there-is-no-easy-way-to-oversee-justices-and-their-politics-187233">Confidence in the Supreme Court is declining – but there is no easy way to oversee justices and their politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The active role of courts often comes into play when democratic institutions are under threat, slow to act or neglectful in making crucial decisions or passing significant laws, leading to potential instability or dangerous legal loopholes.</p>
<p>Judicial activism has been <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/em-debate-eleitoral-bolsonaro-critica-stf-e-ativismo-judicial/">particularly evident in the case of Bolsonaro</a>. A culmination of electoral misinformation, violence, threats against the judiciary and political instability resulted in the electoral court’s intervention.</p>
<p>This strong judicial response resulted in the loss of Bolsonaro’s political rights. It raises an important question: how far can a judiciary, intended to be independent and impartial, involve itself in the outcome of democratic proceedings?</p>
<p>Some scholars point out that <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/209720/edit">judicial activism can have negative effects on society.</a> </p>
<p>This is especially true when a president appoints court justices based on their political alignment and agenda. Trump did so and the result has been the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/24/us/politics/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-analysis-roe-wade.html">endorsement of anti-abortion laws by the U.S. Supreme Court</a>. Another example is in Venezuela, where <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/venezuela-appoints-new-high-court-packed-with-government-allies?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner">the judiciary has supported President Nicolás Maduro</a>, resulting in the persecution of politicians who oppose his established regime.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A bald man sips from a white cup." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alexandre de Moraes, head of Brazil’s electoral court, sips coffee during Jair Bolsonaro’s trial at the Supreme Court in Brasilia, Brazil, in June 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gustavo Moreno)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://exame.com/brasil/bolsonaro-inelegivel-como-ficara-o-cenario-politico-entre-aliados-e-opositores/">The role of the courts in determining Bolsonaro’s fate has fuelled far-right extremism in Brazil</a>. The Supreme Court has become a target, with threats and violence directed at its judges and their families. <a href="https://pledgetimes.com/pgr-says-it-will-take-appropriate-measures-on-attacks-on-moraes/">De Moraes and his son, in fact, were recently attacked at an airport in Italy by three Brazilians</a>.</p>
<h2>Overreach?</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s followers believe the judiciary has overstepped its bounds, intruding into the political arena. This sentiment could benefit politicians endorsed by Bolsonaro in upcoming elections. </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.dw.com/pt-br/com-bolsonaro-ineleg%C3%ADvel-a-direita-deve-lucrar-mais-que-a-esquerda/a-66052529">right-wing politicians who employ disinformation and hate speech as tools for electoral manipulation may need to change tactics</a>, prompted by the fear of judicial repercussions for voter incitement. </p>
<p>The actual impacts of the electoral court’s ruling, and the future of the far right in Brazil, will be tested during municipal elections in October 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Judicial activism can be a double-edged sword. While it swiftly penalized Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro for election misinformation that stoked violence, it’s resulted in anti-choice laws in the U.S.Gerson Scheidweiler, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Equity Studies and member of the Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, CanadaTyler Valiquette, PhD Candidate, Human Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064382023-05-31T20:00:12Z2023-05-31T20:00:12ZFrom Donald Trump to Danielle Smith: 4 ways populists are jeopardizing democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529348/original/file-20230531-21-ur28mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=520%2C0%2C6418%2C4629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. president Donald Trump gives thumbs up as he watches during the first round of the LIV Golf Tournament at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1954, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/11/richard-hofstadters-tradition/377296/">Richard Hofstadter, the eminent American historian of modern conservatism</a>, asked a provocative question about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/joseph-mccarthy-an-american-demagogue-who-foreshadowed-trump/2020/08/27/6d6f3c5c-dbfe-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html">his era’s assault on progressive and left-wing ideals, known as McCarthyism</a>: Where did this extremism come from? </p>
<p>He argued in a <a href="https://theamericanscholar.org/the-pseudo-conservative-revolt/">celebrated essay</a> that even the prosperous, post-Second World War United States was not immune to the radicalism of authoritarian populism. The so-called Red Scare of the 1950s was “simply the old ultra-conservatism and the old isolationism heightened by the extraordinary pressures of the contemporary world.” </p>
<p>Seven decades later, Hofstadter’s words ring true again. Conservative movements are always fighting a rearguard action against modernity by falsely claiming to <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/07/19/borders-exclusion-and-the-populist-radical-right-meta-us/">protect society from progressives</a> who trample traditional values and sneer at the forgotten men and women who embrace them. </p>
<h2>Paranoid politics</h2>
<p>With so much money and power behind it, this paranoid style of politics — with its enemies lists, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/before-nemtsovs-assassination-a-year-of-demonization/2015/03/04/dc8f2afe-c11d-11e4-9ec2-b418f57a4a99_story.html">demonization of opposition leaders</a> and often violent language — has gone mainstream. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theories are no longer a stigma discrediting those who trade in salacious innuendo. Even mainstream politicians are now peddling them.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1658224143844646915"}"></div></p>
<p>But is there anything to fear from the red-hot rhetoric of the paranoid style of politics? Some argue these circumstances <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12263">are cyclical</a>.</p>
<p>In Hofstadter’s time, after all, American conservative politics turned away from fringe radicalism following the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963. The following year, Lyndon Johnson <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1964">defeated right-wing Republican insurgent, Barry Goldwater</a> in one of the largest landslides in U.S. history.</p>
<p>But the crisis we face today is bigger in scale <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/books/review/dark-money-by-jane-mayer.html">and scope</a>. It’s been whipped to a frenzy by political leaders who seek to profit from the chaos that it incites via social media.</p>
<p>Populism was supposed to bring government closer to the people, but it actually places the levers of power <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2023/01/the-shill-of-the-people/">squarely in the hands of authoritarians</a>. Here are four ways populism has turned poisonous and poses existential threats to democracy:</p>
<h2>1. The shrinking middle ground</h2>
<p>Democracy without compromise erodes popular sovereignty by fragmenting the electorate and eliminating meaningful compromise.</p>
<p>We are now in a world of zero-sum political contests, with a shrinking <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/04/us-extremism-portland-george-floyd-protests-january-6/673088/">middle ground</a>. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-ucp-proposes-referendums-for-all-tax-increases/">Conservative parties often force extreme referendums</a> to maintain their grip on a deeply divided electorate. </p>
<p>Election campaigns have become dangerous contests over <a href="https://www.populismstudies.org/Vocabulary/culture-war/">wedge issues</a> designed to deepen cultural divisions using social media.</p>
<p>We saw this with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00208-y">Brexit as Boris Johnson and other populists stoked fears about immigration and Europeans</a>. Donald Trump did it well <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/08/26/fact-check-and-review-of-trump-immigration-policy/">with attacks on immigrants.</a> Republicans are now doubling down on the abortion issue, even though they’re facing pushback from <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2nd-abortion-regulation-bill-vetoed-by-kansas-gov-laura-kelly">some state legislatures and governors</a>.</p>
<p>In Canada, Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, whose United Conservative Party has been newly re-elected with a majority, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-ndp-notley-ucp-smith-attack-ads-1.6749431">has focused on demonizing her opponents</a> and has <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-government-attempts-clarification-as-ndp-calls-sovereignty-act-anti-democratic">engaged in anti-democratic conduct</a> in her months as premier.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-itself-is-on-the-ballot-in-albertas-upcoming-election-203817">Democracy itself is on the ballot in Alberta's upcoming election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The working class isn’t benefiting</h2>
<p>Identity politics isn’t empowering working people because the politics of revenge doesn’t fix structural problems. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, conservative parties around the world are marketing themselves as parties of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/03/working-class-white-voters-gop-house-agenda/673500/">working class</a>. </p>
<p>Populists recognize the <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/education-polarization-diploma-divide-democratic-party-working-class.html">working class is essential</a> to their success at the national level because of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/opinion/education-american-politics.html">“diploma divide</a>” that now separates right and left. </p>
<p>There is a strong correlation between lacking a college diploma and supporting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/14/who-are-national-conservatives-and-what-do-they-want">nationalist conservative movements</a> at election time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of university graduates in their convocation robes and caps inside an auditorium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529344/original/file-20230531-21-qxsqe8.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graduates listen during a convocation ceremony at Simon Fraser University, in Burnaby, B.C., in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It used to be that working people recognized education as a path to prosperity. But <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/see-20-years-of-tuition-growth-at-national-universities">massive tuition increases in the U.S.</a>, in particular, have betrayed the promise of universal access to a college degree.</p>
<p>Tuition fees are also heading in the wrong direction in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/education-36150276">the U.K., Canada and Australia</a>. Education now reinforces class divisions rather than breaking down barriers to a better life.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-freedom-convoy-protesters-are-a-textbook-case-of-aggrieved-entitlement-176791">The 'freedom convoy' protesters are a textbook case of 'aggrieved entitlement'</a>
</strong>
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<hr>
<h2>3. The rich and powerful direct the chaos</h2>
<p>Populism was supposed to empower people outside the corridors of power, but talk of <a href="https://buffalonews.com/news/liberal-elites-are-at-war-with-u-s-tradition-of-moral-values/article_ba36235a-8518-5d32-8b6f-b392e1083ccf.html">retribution against liberal elites</a> normalizes calls for political violence — always a bad thing.</p>
<p>In a war of all against all, it’s not the wealthy who lose. It’s ordinary, hard-working citizens. </p>
<p>Furthermore, once a lust for vengeance takes hold in the general public, it’s almost always being directed by elites with money and power who benefit financially or politically from the chaos.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a 'team trump' cowboy hat carries an american flag. Behind her rioters confront police wearing riot gear." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478349/original/file-20220809-16-zsokyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Violent protesters loyal to Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Assaults on the rule of law</h2>
<p>Authoritarian leaders have gained unprecedented <a href="https://www.oecd-forum.org/posts/spin-dictators-the-changing-face-of-tyranny-in-the-21st-century">institutional legitimacy</a> by building successful movements based on fantasies of blood and soil. The paranoid style of politics has entered a new phase with a full-spectrum assault on the rule of law — from inside government. </p>
<p>Populists are lying when they argue they want to empower the rest of us by divesting judges of their authority to oversee democracy. They really want to breach the strongest constitutional barrier against authoritarianism. </p>
<p>Look at the situation in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist coalition seeks to destroy judicial checks and balances and allow the country’s parliament to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-in-weekend-interview-overhaul-necessary-as-supreme-court-too-powerful/">overrule its Supreme Court</a>, a move that would ease the prime minister’s legal woes.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has been charged with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/4-corruption-scandals-swirling-around-benjamin-netanyahu-explained">corruption and influence peddling.</a> </p>
<p>Trump’s attempts to undermine the legitimacy of judges are equally self-serving. As he runs again for president, he’s already telegraphing his violent desires, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-pardon-large-portion-jan-6-rioters-rcna83873">promising pardons for the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.</a></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sea of blue and white Israeli flags during a protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517761/original/file-20230327-24-yeeq5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israelis protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plan outside the parliament in Jerusalem in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The road ahead for populists</h2>
<p>The political dial is already spinning. The defeats of Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro don’t represent <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/preserving-democracy/video/martin-wolf-the-crisis-of-democratic-capitalism/">absolute rejections</a> of their movements.</p>
<p>Despite an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/30/politics/donald-trump-indictment/index.html">indictment for alleged financial crime</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/09/1175071486/jury-finds-trump-liable-for-sexual-abuse-in-e-jean-carrolls-civil-case">being found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case</a>, Trump is still the 2024 front-runner.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We can’t count on an easy institutional fix, like a grand electoral coalition to push the populists off the ballot. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-haired round-faced man in a suit waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529340/original/file-20230531-17-65wxuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban greets cheering supporters during an election night rally in Budapest, Hungary in April 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Petr David Josek)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Opponents of Hungary’s Viktor Orban formed a united front to oppose him in the country’s 2022 elections. But Orban was re-elected in a vote <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/">widely derided</a> as free but not fair. </p>
<p>Opposing coalitions are an uncertain strategy in most cases, and they don’t work at all in two-party systems. There is in fact no obvious electoral strategy for defeating populism, especially now that the far right has hacked the system.</p>
<h2>Red lights flashing</h2>
<p>We can no longer view elections as contests between the centre-right and centre-left in which undecided voters make the difference between victory and defeat. Nor can we count on the right to step back from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/opinion/democracy-authoritarianism-trump.html">abyss of culture wars</a>. We can’t even say for certain that the populism will recede in the usual cyclical manner.</p>
<p>Only decisive rejection can force the right to abandon anger and grievance, but voters are not yet turning their backs on the paranoid populists. It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to beat them. And it will get harder to do so as they rig the game with rules designed to disenfranchise people who are young, poor or racialized. </p>
<p>All citizens can do is offer is constant, concerted pushback against the many big lies told by populists. It’s never enough, but for the time being, it’s the only way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It will take a lot of strategic ingenuity to fight the rise of populism. And it will get harder to do so as politicians rig the game with rules designed to reduce voting.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999642023-02-16T06:34:00Z2023-02-16T06:34:00ZCOVID wasn’t a ‘bumper campaign’ for right-wing extremists. But the threat from terror remains<p>Violent extremism remains a persistent and resilient threat, constantly adapting and evolving. It is an endlessly demanding problem and we can neither afford to ignore it nor allow it to disproportionately consume our finite resources.</p>
<p>This is the hard reality of terrorism. But it is not hopelessly grim. While the threat can’t be eliminated, it can be contained and managed.</p>
<p>This week, Mike Burgess, the head of the Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/13/asio-will-go-wherever-terrorism-threat-is-despite-low-number-of-listed-rightwing-groups">told Senate Estimates</a> the threat of a terror attack from a right-wing extremist group had receded after COVID restrictions had been lifted. </p>
<p>This followed the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/28/australias-terrorism-threat-level-changes-to-possible-after-eight-years-as-probable">downgrading of Australia’s terror threat level</a> at the end of November. Both developments give reason for hope.</p>
<p>Our systems are working and our investments in mitigating the threat of terrorism are paying off, both in terms of security agencies and community responses. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, as the environmental factors that exacerbate the problem of extremism recede, so too does the threat. Another wave will come, but for now the respite is welcome, as it allows us to repair and rebuild.</p>
<p>In February 2020, when Burgess gave his first ASIO annual threat assessment, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/24/rightwing-extremism-a-real-and-growing-threat-asio-chief-says-in-annual-assessment">warned</a> that rightwing extremism had been brought into “sharp terrible focus” by the March 2019 <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-not-guilty-pleas-mean-for-the-trial-of-alleged-christchurch-mosque-gunman-118917">Christchurch mosque massacre</a>. He added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In suburbs around Australia, small cells regularly meet to salute Nazi flags, inspect weapons, train in combat and share their hateful ideology. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Burgess astutely predicted that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We expect such groups will remain an enduring threat, making more use of online
propaganda to spread their messages of hate. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is likely that even Burgess, Australia’s most senior intelligence chief, did not then have a clear picture of the scale and impact of the global COVID pandemic that was to come.</p>
<p>Three years on, with the pandemic restrictions now gone, Burgess <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/feeling-still-out-there-australias-top-spy-boss-reveals-details-on-covid-driven-extremism/f21duudl9">observed</a> that the impact of the collective anxiety, frustration and lock downs was sharply receding.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Some of that feeling does live on, but the number of cases we’ve been looking at, they’ve reduced significantly … There are less people in this country who want to conduct active violence in the name of their cause.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Not only has the tide now turned against those who would exploit anger and confusion to recruit new members to extremist groups, their impact was less than they had hoped for at the height of the pandemic. As Burgess said, it was not a “bumper campaign” for right-wing extremists.</p>
<p>Contrary to our worst fears, the reality is violent extremists struggle to persuade people to join their cause, whether it’s a well-organised group linked to the likes of al-Qaeda or the Islamic State movement, or a more ambiguous network linked to far-right extremism and conspiracy paranoia.</p>
<p>In crises and temporary, disruptive circumstances such as wars, pandemics and lockdowns, we can see violent extremists and groups make far-reaching gains. But even then, they only succeed in small sections of communities. We naturally fixate on their limited successes, of which the extremists loudly boast.</p>
<p>On one hand, it is good to be alarmed and roused to action. A couple of hundred young Australians were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/is-in-australia/101958888">recruited</a> by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to fight in Syria and Iraq a decade ago. But after we became aware of the scale and extent of the problem – reflected in the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/ViolentExtremism">national terror threat level being raised in September 2014</a> – good work by community groups and security agencies successfully prevented many more from departing Australia.</p>
<p>Similarly, the awareness of a rising threat from far-right extremists in the four years since the Christchurch attack saw security agencies, families, communities and broader society take action to prevent even more people from being radicalised.</p>
<p>These efforts bore fruit, mitigating the harm these extremists could pose and substantially containing the threat.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, as Burgess <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-13/right-wing-terror-threat-declines-says-asio/101965964">reminded us</a> this week, the most likely threat we now face comes from a “lone-wolf” actor:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] an individual who goes to violence with little or no warning and they’re acting on their own because something has set them off […] including maybe the group they’re in is not satisfying their need.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-16/wieambilla-police-shooting-religious-terrorist-attack/101983612">tragically fatal extremist attacks</a> on two young police officers and a helpful neighbour in Wieambilla, on the plains of southern Queensland, in December speak to the enduring threat of lone-actor attacks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1626090402523787264"}"></div></p>
<p>It is precisely because violent extremists are only able to recruit a small number of people to join their causes that they have to work so hard to intimidate others through their actions and cast a long shadow.</p>
<p>After all, the very essence of their chosen method of using violence – or the threat of violence – to bring about social and political change is intended to terrorise society and channel and inflame hate. This, in turn, provokes angry, disproportionate and counterproductive responses from governments?.</p>
<p>We cannot afford to dismiss the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-terrorism-threat-over-195706">resilient and enduring threat</a> posed by violent extremism, just as we cannot allow ourselves to be overcome by terror or provoked into angry responses. </p>
<p>At the same time, we must not succumb to either cynicism or despair. It is foolish to speak about “winning” a “war on terrorism”. But it is equally foolish not to recognise that by working together against the efforts of those who would use hate and violence, we can reduce and contain the threat and build something better.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-terrorism-threat-over-195706">Is the terrorism threat over?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Barton receives funding from the Australian Research Council. And he is engaged in a range of projects working to understand and counter violent extremism in Australia and in Southeast Asia and Africa that are funded by the Australian government.</span></em></p>The terror threat level has receded for now, but another wave will surely come.Greg Barton, Chair in Global Islamic Politics, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928332022-11-02T16:33:55Z2022-11-02T16:33:55ZWhy the ideology of the ‘New Right’ is so dangerous<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492547/original/file-20221031-16-h5sd8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8640%2C5755&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Giorgia Meloni gestures during the handover ceremony with outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi at Chigi Palace in Rome in October 2022. Meloni, whose political party with neo-fascist roots secured the most votes in Italy's national election in September, took office as the country's first far-right leader since the end of the Second World War. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-the-ideology-of-the--new-right--is-so-dangerous" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The populist radical right has been on the rise for some time, with candidates and parties on the far-right fringe of the political spectrum reaching new heights across the world. </p>
<p>The electoral successes of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/how-did-donald-trump-win-analysis">Donald Trump</a> in the United States, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidential-election-say-projected-results">Marine Le Pen</a> in France, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/24/angela-merkel-fourth-term-far-right-afd-third-german-election">Alternative for Germany</a> and, most recently, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/21/giorgia-meloni-tells-italian-president-she-is-ready-to-become-pm-berlusconi-salvini">Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy</a> has put the spotlight on an ideological shift: the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2021.1979139">New Right</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/italys-election-is-a-case-study-in-a-new-phase-for-the-radical-right-92198">Italy's election is a case study in a new phase for the radical right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It’s a loose network of radical right-wing activists who organize themselves in regional initiatives such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276421999446">Alt-Right </a> in the U.S., the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/03/as-macron-does-quiet-deals-with-le-pen-the-far-right-has-france-in-its-grip">Nouvelle Droite</a> in France, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23739770.2019.1700661">Neue Rechte</a> in Germany and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/22/casapound-italy-mussolini-fascism-mainstream">CasaPound</a> in Italy. </p>
<p>This broad movement is aiming for an ideological renewal of right-wing politics by focusing on cultural identity and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00313220600769331">politics of belonging</a>. Such an approach is called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/096394800113349">“metapolitical”</a> since it first attempts to shape how we think about and experience our daily world, playing a long game to change the political structures of our societies. </p>
<h2>Identity politics</h2>
<p>The focus on <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/STEFST-11">identity politics</a> has led to a very <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/01/the-ruthlessly-effective-rebranding-of-europes-new-far-right">successful rebranding</a> of far-right extremism. Proponents of the New Right are less committed than their predecessors to discussing natural superiority, and try to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3817/0393099099">avoid the overt racism</a> of traditional neo-Nazi groups, giving their political views a broader appeal. </p>
<p>They instead push the line that <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/white-supremacy-returned-mainstream-politics/">white people are oppressed in contemporary western societies</a>. They present themselves as “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/13/us/patriot-front-beliefs-history-explainer/index.html">patriotic activists</a>” who are simply concerned with responding to “uncontrolled immigration,” “anti-white discrimination” and the “loss of traditions.”</p>
<p>One of their main enemies <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/globalization">is globalization</a>, against which they insist on a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17449626.2011.635688">“right to difference”</a> (including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0031322X.2021.1920722">Alain de Benoist</a>, one of the founders of France’s New Right movement) for each culture. </p>
<p>They reject the melding of cultures since they believe that cultures are rooted in clearly demarcated and internally uniform social groups. This stems from their key contention that humanity consists of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13569310306084">plurality of distinct “ethnocultures.”</a></p>
<p>Ethnocultures are organic communities to which their members belong by birth. The family is frequently presented as the biological source of ethnocultural communities. </p>
<p>The members of a community also ostensibly share a way of life. Their communal life is characterized by specific cultural practices and moral values. A person’s individual identity is thus shaped by the ethnocultural community they belong to, according to these New Right proponents.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A vandalized campaign poster shows a candidate with a Hitler moustache." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492549/original/file-20221031-14-2z90cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A vandalized election campaign poster for the far-right Alternative for Germany party showing the party’s top candidate, Oliver Kirchner, with an Adolf Hitler moustache is seen in Magdeburg, Germany, in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Passing on traditions</h2>
<p>These proponents often invoke mythical beginnings or supposedly glorious chapters of a community’s past, and emphasize the necessity of historical continuity for its survival.</p>
<p>Cultural traditions therefore must be passed on from generation to generation without significant changes. Fulfilling this task is the common destiny of the members of an ethnocultural community. </p>
<p>New Right advocates focused on identity politics believe that ethnocultures are in competition with each other and their encounters lead to clashes that threaten the collective identity of a community — a ready-made justification for violent conflicts, <a href="https://www.thepostil.com/the-return-of-the-iron-curtain/">including war</a>. The results of these struggles show the supposed inequality of the different cultures. </p>
<p>Their concept of culture readily explains why the New Right is obsessed with migration and regard it as a major threat to their political vision. Consequently, they propagate conspiracy theories, including the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/08/a-deadly-ideology-how-the-great-replacement-theory-went-mainstream">“great replacement” theory</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/white-nationalism-is-a-political-ideology-that-mainstreams-racist-conspiracy-theories-184375">White nationalism is a political ideology that mainstreams racist conspiracy theories</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In this pernicious view, migration is depicted as a plot organized by liberal global elites to replace the native people of western countries with foreigners. The often proclaimed “right to difference” therefore only applies to the relationships between groups. Individual members of a certain group have to conform to its overall character. </p>
<p>This segregationist agenda not only has harmful consequences for migrants, but also for those who are seen as members of an ethnoculture. Treating cultures as uniform can mask important differences between sub-groups within a culture, especially the diverging interests of the group’s elite and its non-elite members. </p>
<p>We saw this exploited in the rhetoric that British people should “<a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/eu-ref-haughton.aspx">take back control</a>” of the United Kingdom through voting for Brexit. This idea was questionable for a number of reasons, especially the false implication that all members of the group “the British” would be more powerful following Brexit.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people hold pro-Brexit signs, two in Santa hats. One side reads Make Britain Great Again." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492550/original/file-20221031-26-63vj3n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Brexit demonstrators hold banners outside Parliament in London in December 2019. (</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dangerous</h2>
<p>The ideology of the New Right is politically dangerous. It also depicts an <a href="http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/34221">inaccurate picture</a> of how cultural life works. </p>
<p>Cultures neither have clear boundaries nor are they uniform and consistent over time. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1069397118816939">They are flexible and dynamic</a>, in constant interaction with each other.</p>
<p>These intercultural encounters can be opportunities to grow and to increase both self-understanding and an understanding of others. Think about the many formative influences that other cultures have had on Europe, including on Christianity (which comes from the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-christianity-spread-around-world-animated-map-2015-7">Middle East</a>) and the numerical system (which <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Hindu-Arabic-numerals">comes from India</a>). </p>
<p>We should embrace the diversity of our cultural lives, and reject the New Right’s attempts to further divide us. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9237638/brazil-election-results-bolsonar-lula/">While recent election results in Brazil</a>, and <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/us/2020/results/">in the U.S.</a> two years ago, may be hopeful signs, this is a broader fight about how we interpret the world. </p>
<p>It requires more than election victories to push back against the dangerous ethnocultural framing of social conflicts that’s often embraced by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/02/the-new-austrian-government-will-brand-itself-as-moderate-but-dont-believe-it">mainstream politicians</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, we need convincing counter-narratives that explain the causes of the economic crises we are facing and promote solidarity as a solution to the staggering social inequality that undermines all societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johannes Steizinger received funding from the European Research Council (Project: The Emergence of Relativism, Grant No: 339382) to conduct his research on far-right ideologies. </span></em></p>The so-called New Right is aiming for an ideological renewal of right-wing politics by focusing on cultural identity and the politics of belonging. Here’s why that’s so ominous.Johannes Steizinger, Associate Professor of Philosophy, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1880552022-08-05T12:12:59Z2022-08-05T12:12:59ZAfter Trump, Christian nationalist ideas are going mainstream – despite a history of violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477719/original/file-20220804-17-xtxnvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2500%2C1785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Separation of church and state: no longer so separate?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/the-flag-and-the-cross-royalty-free-image/1058861544?adppopup=true">Amanda Wayne/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections, some politicians continue to ride the wave of what’s known as “Christian nationalism” in ways that are increasingly vocal and direct.</p>
<p>GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right Donald Trump loyalist from Georgia, told an interviewer on July 23, 2022, that the Republican Party “need[s] to be the party of nationalism. And I’m a Christian, and I say it proudly, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/27/opinions/christian-nationalism-marjorie-taylor-greene-tyler/index.html">we should be Christian nationalists</a>.”</p>
<p>Similarly, Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Republican from Colorado, recently <a href="https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1109141110">said</a>, “The church is supposed to direct the government. The government is not supposed to direct the church.” Boebert called the separation of church and state “junk.”</p>
<p>Many Christian nationalists repeat conservative activist <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/29/texas-church-state-separation-opposition/">David Barton’s</a> argument that the Founding Fathers did not intend to keep religion out of government.</p>
<p>As a scholar of racism and communication who has written about <a href="http://contemporaryrhetoric.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Perry8_1_2_5.pdf">white nationalism</a> during the Trump presidency, I find the amplification of Christian nationalism <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/944_OPSR_TEVUS_Comparing-Violent-Nonviolent-Far-Right-Hate-Groups_Dec2011-508.pdf">unsurprising</a>. Christian nationalism is prevalent among Trump supporters, as religion scholars <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I1K3emoAAAAJ&hl=en">Andrew Whitehead</a> and <a href="https://www.ou.edu/cas/soc/people/faculty/samuel-perry">Samuel L. Perry</a> argue in their book “<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/taking-america-back-for-god-9780190057886?cc=us&lang=en&">Taking Back America for God</a>.”</p>
<p>Perry and Whitehead <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=BDLNDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA10">describe the Christian nationalist movement</a> as being “as ethnic and political as it is religious,” noting that it relies on the assumption of white supremacy. Christian nationalism combines belief in a particular form of Christianity with nativist and populist political platforms. American Christian nationalism is a worldview based on the belief that America is superior to other countries, and that that superiority is divinely established. In this mindset, only Christians are true Americans.</p>
<p>Parts of the movement fit into a broader right-wing extremist history of violence, which has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/aps.43">been on the rise</a> <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states">over the past few decades</a> and was particularly on display <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/opinion/christian-nationalists-capitol-attack.html">during the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021</a>.</p>
<p>The vast majority of Christian nationalists never engage in violence. Nonetheless, <a href="https://nationalcouncilofchurches.us/common-witness-ncc/the-dangers-of-christian-nationalism-in-the-united-states-a-policy-statement-of-the-national-council-of-churches/">Christian nationalist thinking</a> suggests that unless Christians control the state, the state will suppress Christianity. </p>
<h2>From siege to militia buildup</h2>
<p>Violence perpetrated by Christian nationalists has manifested in two primary ways in recent decades. The first is through their <a href="http://www.religion-online.org/article/militias-christian-identity-and-the-radical-right/">involvement in militia groups</a>; the second is seen in <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43406-3_3">attacks on abortion providers</a>.</p>
<p>The catalyst for the growth of militia activity among contemporary Christian nationalists stems from <a href="https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510356/no-compromise">two events</a>: the 1992 Ruby Ridge standoff and the 1993 siege at Waco.</p>
<p>At Ruby Ridge, former Army Green Beret Randy Weaver engaged federal law enforcement in an 11-day standoff at his rural Idaho cabin over charges relating to the sale of sawed-off shotguns to an ATF informant investigating <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/08/18/544523302/how-what-happened-25-years-ago-at-ruby-ridge-still-matters-today">Aryan Nation</a> white supremacist militia meetings. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Randy Weaver supporters at Ruby Ridge in northern Idaho." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378882/original/file-20210114-22-s8w942.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of Randy Weaver. The Ruby Ridge standoff sparked the expansion of radical right-wing groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RubyRidgeAnniversary/d360905c59104a4a9a2c41c25874643b/photo?Query=ruby%20AND%20ridge&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=75&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Jeff T. Green, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Weaver ascribed to the <a href="https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/106598/Contribution_514_final.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">Christian Identity movement</a>, which emphasizes adherence to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2645906">Old Testament laws</a> and white supremacy. Christian Identity members believe in the application of the <a href="https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/fall-2012-politics-issue/his-truth-marching">death penalty</a> for adultery and LBGTQ relationships in accordance with their reading of some biblical passages. </p>
<p>During the standoff, Weaver’s wife and teenage son were shot and killed before he surrendered to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/26/ruby-ridge-1992-modern-american-militia-charlottesville">federal authorities</a>.</p>
<p>In the Waco siege a year later, cult leader David Koresh and his followers entered a standoff with federal law enforcement at the group’s Texas compound, once again concerning <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/4/19/17246732/waco-tragedy-explained-david-koresh-mount-carmel-branch-davidian-cult-25-year-anniversary">weapons charges</a>. After a 51-day standoff, federal law enforcement laid siege to the compound. A fire took hold at the compound in disputed circumstances, leading to the deaths of 76 people, including Koresh. </p>
<p>The two events spurred a nationwide <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/26/ruby-ridge-1992-modern-american-militia-charlottesville">militia buildup</a>. As sociologist Erin Kania <a href="https://docs.rwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1043&context=rr">argues</a>: “Ruby Ridge and Waco confrontations drove some citizens to strengthen their belief that the government was overstepping the parameters of its authority. … Because this view is one of the founding ideologies of the American Militia Movement, it makes sense that interest and membership in the movement would sharply increase following these standoffs between government and nonconformists.”</p>
<p>Distrust of the government blended with strains of <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1995-04-24-9504240157-story.html">Christian fundamentalism</a> have brought together two groups with formerly disparate goals. </p>
<h2>Christian nationalism and violence</h2>
<p>Christian fundamentalists and white supremacist militia groups both figured themselves as targeted by the government in the aftermath of the standoffs at Ruby Ridge and Waco. As <a href="https://www.hofstra.edu/faculty/fac_profiles.cfm?id=177">scholar of religion Ann Burlein</a> <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/lift-high-the-cross">argues</a>, “Both the Christian right and right-wing white supremacist groups aspire to overcome a culture they perceive as hostile to the white middle class, families, and heterosexuality.”</p>
<p>Significantly, in 1995, Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh and accomplice Terry Nichols <a href="http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/mcveigh/mcveighaccount.html">cited revenge</a> for the Waco siege as a motive for the bombing of the Alfred Murrah federal building. The terrorist act killed 168 people and injured hundreds more.</p>
<p>Since 1993, at least 11 people have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/29/us/30abortion-clinic-violence.html">murdered in attacks on abortion clinics</a> in cities across the U.S., and there have been numerous other plots. </p>
<p>They have involved people like <a href="https://womrel.sitehost.iu.edu/REL%20133/Juergensmeyer_Terror/Soldiers%20for%20Christ.pdf">the Rev. Michael Bray</a>, who attacked multiple abortion clinics. Bray was the spokesman for Paul Hill, a Christian Identity adherent who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/04/us/florida-executes-killer-of-an-abortion-provider.html">murdered</a> physician John Britton and his bodyguard James Barrett in 1994 outside of a Florida abortion clinic. </p>
<p>In yet another case, Eric Rudolph bombed the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. In his confession, he cited his opposition to abortion and anti-LGBTQ views as <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4600480">motivation to bomb</a> Olympic Square. </p>
<p>These men cited their involvement with the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2018/holy-hate-far-right%E2%80%99s-radicalization-religion">Christian Identity</a> movement in their trials as motivation for engaging in violence.</p>
<h2>Mainstreaming Christian nationalist ideas</h2>
<p>The presence of Christian nationalist ideas in recent political campaigns is concerning, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-021-09758-y">given its ties to violence and white supremacy</a>.</p>
<p>Trump and his advisers helped to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/opinion/christian-nationalism-great-replacement.html">mainstream</a> such rhetoric with events like his <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/6/11/22527796/ig-report-trump-bible-lafayette-square-protest">photo op with a Bible</a> in Lafayette Square in Washington following the violent dispersal of protesters, and making a show of pastors <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-secretly-mocks-his-christian-supporters/616522/">laying hands on him</a>. But that legacy continues beyond his administration. </p>
<p>Candidates like <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-pennsylvania-religion-nationalism-8bf7a6115725f508a37ef944333bc145">Doug Mastriano</a>, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania who attended the Jan. 6 Trump rally, are now using <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/a-pennsylvania-lawmaker-and-the-resurgence-of-christian-nationalism">the same messages</a>.</p>
<p>In some states, such as Texas and Montana, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/24/politics/texas-far-right-politics-invs/index.html">hefty funding</a> for <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/power-issue-tim-dunn-pushing-republican-party-arms-god/">far-right Christian candidates</a> has helped put Christian nationalist ideas in the mainstream. </p>
<p>Blending politics and religion is not necessarily a recipe for Christian nationalism, nor is Christian nationalism a recipe for political violence. At times, however, Christian nationalist ideas can <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-021-09758-y">serve as a prelude</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-capitol-siege-recalls-past-acts-of-christian-nationalist-violence-153059">an article originally published on Jan. 15, 2021</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Perry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Distrust of government blended with strains of Christian fundamentalism can produce a violent form of Christian nationalism, a scholar explains.Samuel Perry, Associate Professor, Baylor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1761462022-02-03T19:47:20Z2022-02-03T19:47:20ZCanada’s trucker protest: An epic security failure or a triumph of democratic freedom?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444333/original/file-20220203-27-b8dt5f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C367%2C6452%2C3825&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A person walks past trucks parked on a street in downtown Ottawa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-s-trucker-protest--an-epic-security-failure-or-a-triumph-of-democratic-freedom" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>“<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4373486">Protecting the perimeter</a>” is usually a term reserved for <a href="https://www.tad.usace.army.mil/Portals/53/docs/TAA/AEDDesignRequirements/AED%20Design%20Requirements%20-%20Site%20Layout%20Guidance%20Mar_09.pdf">military engineers</a> wanting to protect critical infrastructure within a conflict zone. </p>
<p>At first glance, it doesn’t seem to be a term that’s applicable to a protest in Ottawa. Or is it?</p>
<p>The hundreds of truck drivers and their supporters who have descended upon Parliament Hill to protest vaccine mandates appear to be settling in for the long haul, <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/trucker-convoy-shutdown-continues-for-fifth-day-shepherds-of-good-hope-overwhelmed-by-donations">with some saying they could be in the Canadian capital for months</a>.</p>
<p>While the protest hasn’t descended into large-scale violence, <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/truck-convoy-protests-road-closures-continue-thursday-as-frustration-grows">there have been several arrests</a>, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andre-pratte-the-longer-convoy-protesters-paralyze-ottawa-the-more-they-damage-their-cause">war memorials and national monuments have been desecrated</a> and the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-area-mp-under-fire-for-photo-of-him-near-flag-bearing-nazi-symbol-1.6333266">Confederate flag and Nazi symbols</a> have made appearances.</p>
<p>Some suggest protesters with extremist right-wing views aren’t representative of the demonstrators as a whole, but right-wing extremism has been a growing movement even before the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol building.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/right-wing-extremism-the-new-wave-of-global-terrorism-147975">Right-wing extremism: The new wave of global terrorism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Have Canadian security officials taken note of that rise? What have they learned from Jan. 6 and the failure that day to protect the perimeter surrounding a national symbol of democracy? </p>
<h2>Lessons from Jan. 6?</h2>
<p>In fairness to American officials, they had less than one hour to tactically prepare after former president Donald Trump incited his followers to march to Capitol Hill
(although <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/january-6-committee-examines-internal-fbidhs-documents-seeking-answers-rcna11076">there is evidence that the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security had intelligence</a> of the potential for trouble). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People climb the wall of the U.S. Capitol building. A blue Trump banner hangs beside one of the climbers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444338/original/file-20220203-17-dgpe8c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of former president Donald Trump scale the west wall of the the U.S. Capitol in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In stark contrast, officials in Canada were made aware a full week in advance, when the <a href="https://www.moosejawtoday.com/local-news/thousands-of-semis-roll-east-to-ottawa-as-part-of-freedom-convoy-4992927">“freedom convoy” left British Columbia on Jan. 22</a> announcing Ottawa was their final destination. Their motivations were clear, <a href="https://canada-unity.com/bearhug/">their manifesto</a> outlined their grievances and they managed to organize a sizeable GoFundMe war chest of almost $10 million, though the campaign is now on pause and only $1 million of it has been released.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-gofundme-violating-its-own-terms-of-service-on-the-freedom-convoy-176147">Is GoFundMe violating its own terms of service on the 'freedom convoy?'</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>It should have been obvious this group had resolve and was determined. </p>
<p>Yet how is this group now an occupying force in the nation’s capital and a source of general aggravation for many of its citizens? </p>
<p>The answer is simple. Officials have apparently made a decision to prioritize the rights of protesters under Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms, even though there’s no declared end date to their protest and there’s myriad potential security risks and <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-dont-know-how-they-will-pay-the-rent-businesses-and-workers-bearing-brunt-of-protests">mounting economic losses in Ottawa</a>. </p>
<h2>Angry people driving vehicles</h2>
<p>Regardless of your position on the merits of the protest, public officials in Ottawa could have easily and justifiably closed a large portion of Wellington Street in front of Parliament Hill to vehicular traffic for security reasons.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men play street hockey on a wide city street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444334/original/file-20220203-19-g9p3p4.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Truckers and their supporters play street hockey on Wellington Street near the Parliament buildings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Patrick Doyle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The political costs would have been low since they’ve done it for <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/major-security-measures-for-ottawa-s-canada-150-bash-amid-isis-threat-1.3479411">Canada Day celebrations</a>, an invitational event. They could have communicated via various media outlets many days in advance that pedestrians were welcome to demonstrate on Parliament Hill to their hearts’ content, but no vehicles would be allowed. </p>
<p>This seems like it would have been a smart move, given that recent history is replete with examples of angry people behind the wheels of trucks and vans who have caused much intended harm.</p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36800730">a man drove a large transport truck into a dense crowd in Nice, France</a>, killing 87 people.</p>
<p>In 2017, another terrorist <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJTC-04-2018-0030/full/html">drove a truck into a dense tourist area in Stockholm, Sweden</a>, killing five people.</p>
<p>Of relevance to Canada due to its proximity to a parliamentary building, a man <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41125-017-0018-4">drove a car into pedestrians in front of the British parliament</a> in March 2017, killing four people. </p>
<p>Critics will be quick to mention that all three of these attacks were motivated by Islamic extremism, which is true. But shouldn’t security officials consider the fact that these protesters might not only be dangerous given the incendiary nature of some of their protest tactics, but could also represent an attractive target for violence themselves since some appear to represent far-right views and white supremacy?</p>
<p>And let’s not also forget Timothy McVeigh, a man with strong right-wing, anti-government views who <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1016/S1059-4337(04)33006-1/full/html">planted explosives in a truck beside a federal government</a> building in Oklahoma in 1995, killing 168 people. He was a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/nations-deadliest-domestic-terrorist-inspiring-generation-hate-filled/story?id=73431262">home-grown terrorist</a>, angry at the federal government.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The ruins of a multi-storey building, the front of it decimated by an explosion." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444335/original/file-20220203-27-ft1r4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This April 1995 file photo shows the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in downtown Oklahoma City, the day after Timothy McVeigh set off a bomb in a truck parked in front of it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Glass)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>High tolerance for risk?</h2>
<p>It would appear that officials in Ottawa have either an extremely high tolerance for risk or have been extremely confident no significant security incidents would warrant closing Wellington Street to vehicular traffic.</p>
<p>If the protesters had been denied front-row parking spots in front of the Parliament buildings, it might have weakened their resolve to stay. The protest might have dissipated after the first weekend.</p>
<p>Instead, each day it continues, it costs <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-mayor-convoy-protest-1.6335645">taxpayers more than $1 million a day</a> in policing and provision of other municipal services. While Ottawa police are scrambling to try to deal with the protesters, suggesting there’s nothing they can do, the RCMP is busy trying to remove <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/02/01/we-just-want-to-go-home-stranded-truckers-in-us-plead-for-alberta-blockade-to-end.html">another convoy blockade</a> at the border crossing in Coutts, Alta. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1488959713521905664"}"></div></p>
<p>The other side to this story is perhaps Canada is the model of democracy, where the protest rights of a small minority trump the security needs of the state and the economic considerations of the majority. </p>
<p>Ironically, Toronto officials are now bracing for further protests in the days ahead by <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/02/01/covid-truckers-protest-queens-park-ontario/">protecting the perimeter of the Ontario legislature</a>. So perhaps we do learn security lessons in Canada — oftentimes the hard way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Right-wing extremism is a growing movement, as the world saw during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol building. Shouldn’t Ottawa security forces have learned lessons from Jan. 6?Sean Spence, Doctorate Student in Security Risk Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1753222022-01-27T13:29:46Z2022-01-27T13:29:46ZBehind the 11 Oath Keepers charged with sedition are many more who have been trained by the US military<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442061/original/file-20220122-25-1aq7cbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C50%2C6720%2C4416&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stewart Rhodes must stay behind bars until his trial.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-oath-keeper-brought-on-to-provide-security-stands-guard-news-photo/674249800?adppopup=true">Philip Pacheco/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The leader of the Oath Keepers militia, Stewart Rhodes, must stay behind bars pending trial for his alleged role in the storming of the Capitol, a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/01/26/stewart-rhodes-jailed-seditious-conspiracy/">judge ruled on Jan. 26, 2022</a>. While this means authorities can keep tabs on the whereabouts of Rhodes – and presumably limit any perceived threat from him – the same may not be said for all members of the group.</p>
<p>Rhodes and other defendants who have pleaded not guilty to charges of <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/leader-oath-keepers-and-10-other-individuals-indicted-federal-court-seditious-conspiracy-and">seditious conspiracy</a> over the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, present just a fraction of the total membership of the Oath Keepers – the size of which raises uncomfortable questions about the possibility of violent radicalization in the U.S. military. </p>
<p>As experts on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=pdQoqX4AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">violent</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UlDYlEoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">extremism</a>, we believe it isn’t only the number of Oath Keepers that is a problem, it is their makeup. A significant number of their members are veterans – both female and male – who bring military skills to the group and also serve as recruiters for other active and former armed service personnel. </p>
<h2>Challenging the commander in chief</h2>
<p>The Oath Keepers were founded by Rhodes in 2009 as an anti-government group in response to the Obama presidency. </p>
<p>The group’s name implies a mandate to honor their oath to the U.S. Constitution, and <a href="https://www.oathkeepers.org/about-oath-keepers/">in particular to</a> “defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”</p>
<p>But its founding inspiration was precisely the opposite: challenging a legitimate president and commander in chief out of <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/10/oath-keepers-paramilitary-units-default/">animosity toward what Barack Obama</a> stood for. Since then, the Oath Keepers have armed and broadcast plans to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-capitol-riots-oath-keepers-2021-06-20/">mobilize</a>.</p>
<p>The Oath Keepers may <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/oath-keepers">number in the thousands</a>, yet we believe they present a greater threat than their membership suggests. This is partly because the Oath Keepers actively <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/military-police-and-rise-terrorism-united-states">recruit</a> <a href="https://www.oathkeepers.org/about-oath-keepers/">current and retired members</a> of the armed forces.</p>
<p>As UMass Lowell terrorism expert and our research collaborator, Arie Perliger, has shown in his work, Oath Keepers members are likely <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-soldiers-bring-lethal-skill-to-militia-campaigns-against-us-government-153369">better trained</a> militarily than other extremist groups because of the group’s composition. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/">10%</a> of the Oath Keepers are active-duty military, and around two-thirds are retired military or law enforcement, according to <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/examining-extremism-oath-keepers">analysis of the group’s membership</a> by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Several Oath Keepers present at the Jan. 6 attack were veterans, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/us/politics/capitol-riot-militias.html">Larry Brock</a>, the so-called “zip-tie guy” due to his being <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/01/09/insurrectionist-zip-tie-guy-identified-as-retired-air-force-lieutenant-colonel/">photographed with the makeshift handcuffs</a>.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/31/us/capitol-riot-arrests-active-military-veterans-soh/index.html">an analysis of court and Pentagon records by CNN</a>, as many as 14% of those charged with crimes related to storming the Capitol served in the military. This is <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/where-veterans-live">double the proportion</a> of veterans in the general American adult population.</p>
<p>Military members are desirable to extremist groups because they bring special skills such as experience with weapons, targeting and combat experience. According to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1462481/download">the indictment</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/15/oath-keepers-stewart-rhodes-sedition/">the Oath Keepers used a “stack</a>,” or staggered <a href="https://youtu.be/p1QJLffN15k?t=200">military formation</a>, to breach the Capitol. </p>
<p>As our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17467586.2021.1912374">previous research</a> demonstrated, the processes of radicalization in an extremist group movement is in many ways similar to military training. Those with military backgrounds possess not only the skills that radical groups seek, but also the psychological readiness for violent conflict that is rare among civilians. </p>
<p>The rise in radicalization within the ranks of the military can be observed in the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/military-police-and-rise-terrorism-united-states">increasing proportion of domestic terrorism acts in the U.S. involving active-duty and reserve personel</a>, from 0% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019 and 6.4% in 2020, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. </p>
<p>The number of Americans with military ties classified as extremists <a href="https://www.start.umd.edu/sites/default/files/publications/local_attachments/Extremism%20In%20the%20Ranks%20and%20After%20-%20Research%20Brief%20-%20July_13_2021%20Final%20accessible.pdf">quadrupled</a> in recent years, according to Michael Jensen and other researchers at the University of Maryland’s Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism center.</p>
<h2>Recruiting ground</h2>
<p>An increase in radical ideology among members of the U.S. military makes it a fertile ground for recruiting by groups such as the Oath Keepers. </p>
<p>A 2019 <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/02/06/signs-of-white-supremacy-extremism-up-again-in-poll-of-active-duty-troops/">poll</a> of active-duty troops found that around 1 in 3 (36%) reported personally witnessing “White nationalism and ideologically-driven racism” among their peers. This included the use of racist language, but also swastikas drawn on service members’ cars and stickers supporting the Ku Klux Klan.</p>
<p>This high proportion reflects a significant increase from the previous year: In a <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/02/28/white-nationalism-remains-a-problem-for-the-military-poll-shows/">2018 poll</a>, 1 in 5 (22%) active military troops had reported witnessing such behavior. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>As well as posing a risk due to their weapons training, active and former military personnel pose a greater threat as members of right-wing militia groups. Unlike civilians, <a href="https://www.army.mil/values/oath.html">military people must take an oath</a>, pledging allegiance to their country and the institutions of democracy enshrined in the Constitution.</p>
<p>When they align with groups like the Oath Keepers and plan an attack on the U.S. government, these military personnel betray their oath. This kind of hypocrisy is known in psychology as <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2003-07815-003">cognitive dissonance</a> – an uncomfortable psychological state that arises when one’s actions contradict one’s self-image, causing a motivation to “double-down” to justify one’s actions. It is the reason that painful, embarrassing or humiliating initiation rites are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5914.2005.00282.x">often effective in radicalizing new members</a>. The additional psychological cost of cognitive dissonance may mean military members of the Oath Keepers are more committed to their new allegiance after they turn away from their old one.</p>
<p>While the Oath Keepers wish to present themselves as the ultimate masculine alphas, some of the real power lies with the women supporting their efforts. </p>
<p>The number of men arrested over the Jan. 6 riot outnumber that of women. Of the 11 charged with seditious conspiracy, only one – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/22/politics/oath-keepers-watkins-changed-story/index.html">Jessica Watkins</a>, a former army ranger who at the time of the attack identified as an Oath Keeper – is a woman.</p>
<p>However, women play key support roles from behind the scenes, raising money, disseminating propaganda and even recruiting new members. </p>
<p>After Rhodes was arrested, Kellye SoRelle, a former attorney, was <a href="https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2022/01/14/granbury-lawyer-kellye-sorelle-acting-president-oath-keepers/">named as “acting president</a>” of the Oath Keepers. </p>
<p>The hidden face of extremism is often female, as <a href="http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/859160774">our previous research</a> on the subject has shown. In Jihadi groups, women were crucial for fundraising, disseminating propaganda and recruiting men for the cause. Women in Jihadi organizations, like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/world/europe/28terror.html">al-Qaeda</a> recruiter Malika el Aroud, were able to <a href="https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-124?mediaType=Article">shame men</a> into participating in the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.</p>
<p>On her website, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/07/30/robertson.al.qaeda.full/index.html">minbar.sos</a>, Aroud exhorted men to <a href="https://www.marieclaire.com/politics/news/a5527/malika-el-aroud-female-terrorist/">step up</a> to prove that they were real men. </p>
<p>We see comparable dynamics in American right-wing extremist groups and the ways in which women <a href="https://icct.nl/publication/women-far-right-extremism/">weaponize</a> toxic masculinity.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://twitter.com/juliettekayyem/status/1481816792746053633?s=20">analysts</a> have predicted that membership in the Oath Keepers will <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/oath-keepers-sedition-charges/">decline </a> as a result of the indictments. </p>
<p>But those indicted number a only a few; the real concern is that the men and women who make up the Oath Keepers’ rank and file could continue to recruit while the leaders remain behind bars.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s politics newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175322/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mia Bloom receives funding from the Minerva Research Initiative and the Office of Naval Research, any opinions, findings, or recommendations expressed are those of the author alone and do not reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research, the Department of the Navy or the Department of Defense. Bloom is also the International Security Fellow at New America.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophia Moskalenko works for Evidence Based Cybersecurity Group, GSU. She receives funding from the Minerva Research Initiative and the Office of Naval Research. </span></em></p>About 10% of the Oath Keepers are active-duty military, and around two-thirds are retired military or law enforcement.Mia M. Bloom, Professor and fellow at Evidence Based Cyber Security Program, GSU, Georgia State UniversitySophia Moskalenko, Research Fellow in Social Psychology, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1683592021-09-23T12:29:42Z2021-09-23T12:29:42Z21 million Americans say Biden is ‘illegitimate’ and Trump should be restored by violence, survey finds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422723/original/file-20210922-13-7v8i6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5700%2C3899&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some Americans are looking past Joe Biden, seeking the return of Donald Trump as president.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2020-Wisconsin/35f39fc79ea846e8830d1257dfd8cf37/photo">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A recent Washington demonstration supporting those charged with crimes for the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol fizzled, with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-capitol-high-alert-pro-trump-demonstrators-converge-rally-2021-09-18/">no more than 200</a> demonstrators showing up. The organizers had promised 700 people would turn out – or more.</p>
<p>But the threat from far-right insurrectionists is not over.</p>
<p>For months, my colleagues and I at the <a href="https://cpost.uchicago.edu/">University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats</a> have been tracking insurrectionist sentiments in U.S. adults, most recently in surveys in June. We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”</p>
<p>Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.</p>
<p>Only a small percentage of <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/09/justice-for-j6-rally-capitol-dc-trump-jason-stanley-interview.html">people who hold extremist views</a> ever actually commit acts of violence, but our findings reveal how many Americans hold views that could turn them toward insurrection.</p>
<h2>A solid survey</h2>
<p>In June 2021, our group commissioned a survey done by the independent, non-partisan researchers at <a href="https://www.norc.org/Pages/default.aspx">NORC at the University of Chicago</a>, seeking to discover how widespread insurrectionist sentiments are among U.S. adults. </p>
<p>The research methods meet the highest standards in the polling industry – a random sample of a representative sample. It’s the same process NORC uses to conduct polling for <a href="https://www.norc.org/Research/Projects/Pages/default.aspx">The Associated Press, the federal government and other major institutions</a>.</p>
<p>First, NORC pulls together a panel of 40,000 people, <a href="https://amerispeak.norc.org/Documents/Research/AmeriSpeak%20Technical%20Overview%202019%2002%2018.pdf">called AmeriSpeak</a>, who are representative of the entire U.S. population on dozens of characteristics, such as age, race, income, location of residence and religion. From that representative sample, NORC drew a random sample – in our case, 1,070 people.</p>
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<h2>Extreme beliefs</h2>
<p>This polling found that <a href="http://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/CPOST-NORC_UnderstandingInsurrectionSurvey_JUN2021_Topline.pdf">9% of American adults</a> say they agree with the statement that “Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.” And 25% of adults either strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that “The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.”</p>
<p>Overall, 8% of the survey participants share both of those views. </p>
<p>The margin of error of this survey was plus or minus 4 percentage points. So when calculating the number of the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/united-states-adult-population-grew-faster-than-nations-total-population-from-2010-to-2020.html">258 million adult Americans</a> who hold these views, we looked at the range of between 4% and 12% – which gave us between 10 million and 31 million. The best single figure is the middle of that range, 21 million.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A view of people storming the US Capitol" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422724/original/file-20210922-23-p9sk84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Jan. 6, 2021, people claiming the presidential election had been stolen stormed the U.S. Capitol in hopes of keeping Donald Trump in office.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotSeattlePolice/13a006a6813b4facb919c286af9a674a/photo">AP Photo/John Minchillo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People who said force is justified to restore Trump were consistent in their insurrectionist sentiments: Of them, <a href="https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/">90% also see Biden as illegitimate</a>, and 68% also think force may be needed to preserve America’s traditional way of life.</p>
<h2>The fringe moving into the mainstream</h2>
<p>Combined with their military experience, gun ownership and connections to extremist groups and militias, this signals the existence of significant mainstream support in America for a violent insurrection.</p>
<p>This group of 21 million who agree both that force is justified to restore Trump and that Biden is an illegitimate president has two additional views that are also on the fringes of mainstream society:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/">63% agree with the statement</a> that “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites” – a belief sometimes called “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/technology/replacement-theory.html">the Great Replacement</a>.”</li>
<li><a href="https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/">54% agree</a> that “A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is ruling the US government,” which is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-qanon-is-hard-to-measure-and-polls-may-overestimate-it-156020">key belief in the QAnon movement</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Some people with insurrectionist sentiments hold one of these political views but not the other, suggesting there are multiple ways of thinking that lead a person toward the insurrectionist movement.</p>
<h2>Broader support</h2>
<p>This latest research reinforces our previous findings, that the Jan. 6 insurrection represents a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/06/capitol-insurrection-arrests-cpost-analysis/">far more mainstream movement</a> than earlier instances of right-wing extremism across the country. Those events, mostly limited to white supremacist and militia groups, saw <a href="https://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/americas_insurrectionists_online_2021_02_05.pdf?mtime=1612585947">more than 100 individuals arrested from 2015 to 2020</a>. But just 14% of those arrested for their actions on Jan. 6 are members of those groups. <a href="https://cpost.uchicago.edu/research/domestic_extremism/why_we_cannot_afford_to_ignore_the_american_insurrectionist_movement/">More than half are business owners or middle-aged white-collar professionals</a>, and only 7% are unemployed.</p>
<p>There is no way to say for sure when – or even whether – these insurrectionists will take action. On Jan. 6, it took clear direction from Donald Trump and other political leaders to turn these dangerous sentiments into a violent reality. But the movement itself is larger and more complex than many people might like to think.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168359/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert A. Pape receives funding from the Tawani Foundation. </span></em></p>A representative survey of American adults finds broader support for violent insurrection than many would like to think.Robert A. Pape, Professor of Political Science, University of ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676072021-09-13T17:46:56Z2021-09-13T17:46:56ZFrom sunny ways to pelted with stones: Why do some Canadians hate Justin Trudeau?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420842/original/file-20210913-27-e86kgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters wait for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau to arrive at a campaign event in Bolton, Ont. in August that had to be cancelled.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/from-sunny-ways-to-pelted-with-stones--why-do-some-canadians-hate-justin-trudeau-" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canada’s snap election has increasingly featured <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-protest-racist-death-threat-sexist-1.6157617">threats of violence</a> against Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/parliament-hill-security-increased-after-reports-of-harassment">Though not the only leader to be harassed</a>, Trudeau’s campaign stops in recent weeks have been disrupted by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/8/what-next-experts-in-canada-alarmed-by-anti-trudeau-protests">small, hostile, mostly white crowds</a> — one protester was <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8183500/shane-marshall-arrested-gravel-trudeau/">charged with throwing gravel</a> at Trudeau during a campaign appearance. </p>
<p>Outside of Canada, people might be surprised to hear about the anger directed at a politician known internationally as a youthful, charming, energetic progressive. <a href="https://www.amo-oma.ca/en/category/memes-in-canadian-politics/">But our research into Canadian memes</a> has found a persistent, visceral dislike of Trudeau among many right-wing online communities.</p>
<p>In Canada, Trudeau’s a polarizing figure — online, people either love or immensely dislike him. </p>
<p>Trudeau, the son of famed former prime minister <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/pierre-elliott-trudeau">Pierre Elliott Trudeau</a> who enjoyed a similar international celebrity, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/topic/trudeaumania-a-swinger-for-prime-minister">ushered in another bout of Trudeaumania</a> when he won his first election in 2015. That campaign was defined by a focus on <a href="https://liberal.ca/the-sunny-way/">“sunny ways”</a> and <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/april-2018/instagram-justin-trudeau-and-political-image-making/">Instagram style</a> as part of a progressive reset after years of Conservative rule. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-twitter-canada-election-2015-trudeaumania-1.3279245">Trudeaumania 2.0 was real</a>, another example of how closely linked celebrity and political culture can sometimes be.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A cartoon shows Trudeau with his arm around Omar Khadr with a wounded veteran in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=786&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420564/original/file-20210910-27-136agbs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=988&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cartoon suggesting Trudeau has betrayed Canadian veterans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook Ontario Proud Group</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Two years later, Trudeaumania had largely dissipated, though it never existed among right-wing groups. In 2017, a friend shared a post from Ontario Proud, <a href="https://canadaproud.org/">part of Canada Proud</a>, a popular Facebook page <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/digital-guru-behind-popular-conservative-ontario-proud-page-joins-erin-otoole-campaign-team">run by a right-of-centre media strategist</a>. It was a cartoon that originated on an alt-right sub-Reddit suggesting Trudeau has betrayed white, wounded male veterans.</p>
<p>The Islamic crescent on Trudeau’s socks is perhaps a conspiratorial explanation of the false belief that Trudeau paid out to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Omar-Khadr-case">Omar Khadr</a>, a Canadian citizen who at the age of 15 was detained by the United States at Guantanamo Bay for 10 years for the wartime killing of a U.S. army sergeant in Afghanistan. This allegation ignores the violations of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/omar-khadr-legal-analysis-aaron-wherry-1.4199409">that led to a $10.5 million court settlement with Khadr.</a></p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A poster spells out Trudeau: Traitorous, ruinous, unreasonable, delusional, egotistical, arrogant and unethical." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420566/original/file-20210910-14-1fbkkvo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-Trudeau online poster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Accusations that Trudeau has betrayed Canada was a common theme <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/14614448211020690">as we began studying grassroots Facebook pages in 2019</a>, another election year. We found no Trudeau meme pages celebrating the leader. </p>
<p>Instead, we watched anti-Trudeau pages describe him as a traitor who deserved to be treated with contempt.</p>
<p>In another meme, Trudeau’s name had been reduced to “Turd.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A meme asks Canadians to 'flush the turd'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420567/original/file-20210910-27-1kq7wv2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Another anti-Trudeau Facebook meme during the 2019 election campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Blackface, sexual predator accusations</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.amo-oma.ca/en/2019/09/25/memes-after-trudeaus-brownface-incident/">These right-wing groups had a distinct reaction to the blackface scandals that erupted during the 2019 campaign</a>. They believed, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-blackface-wherry-1.5291424">as did some mainstream commentators,</a> that the prime minister’s past behaviour symbolized Liberal hypocrisy, accusing him of a performative and superficial embrace of equality and social justice. </p>
<p>The blackface, however, seemed to matter less to right-wing groups than framing Trudeau as <a href="https://www.politicalmemes.ca/grope/">a sexual predator</a>. They “uncovered proof” of Trudeau’s alleged lecherous conduct at past schools and targeted the placement of his hands in a photo from a 2001 Bollywood gala. </p>
<p>Memes became <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2019.1686094">evidence collages</a> designed to prove Trudeau’s past sexual misconduct and used to negatively taint his contemporary image.</p>
<p>Trudeau was a sex symbol, alright, but the worst kind, according to these groups. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/07/02/justin-trudeau-responds-to-groping-allegations-i-dont-remember-any-negative-interactions/">Trudeau denied the allegations and apologized for one incident though he said he had no memory of it.</a> But the claims had made their mark in these communities and further soured their adherents on the Liberal leader.</p>
<h2>Pandemic intensified anti-Trudeau feelings</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic offered these groups further cause to feel <a href="https://www.amo-oma.ca/en/2020/07/09/memes-in-the-infodemic/">betrayed by Trudeau</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A poster says COVID-19 is a hoax that allows Trudeau to electronically track Canadians." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420569/original/file-20210910-25-1mvv1n5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poster suggesting COVID-19 is a hoax that benefits Trudeau.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pandemic lockdowns, vaccine mandates, vaccine passports and disruptions to businesses offered new ways to interpret Trudeau’s arrogance and betrayal. The reaction wasn’t exceptional — most countries <a href="https://www.axios.com/anti-mask-and-anti-vaccine-protests-take-place-globally-e38bf893-f8c4-4c74-bf55-a427250dae6e.html">in the world are dealing with anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers</a> — but rather the continuation of anti-Trudeau attitudes that regard him as an incompetent leader who is not to be trusted, whether with women or with the economy. </p>
<p>Our observations show a darker side to Trudeau’s celebrity status. As much as Trudeau may be regarded as a likeable person by many Canadians and international observers, he’s disliked by right-wing groups for perhaps similar reasons: he’s a rich, entitled white man in a position of privilege and power who they view as betraying what they often call <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/old-stock-canadians-stephen-harper-identity-politics-1.3234386">“old-stock Canadians.”</a></p>
<p>This may explain Trudeau’s niche unpopularity online and the white, angry crowds appearing at his rallies.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1437618306400325633"}"></div></p>
<p>As journalist Fatima Syed writes, <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/protesters-threw-rocks-at-the-pm-it-should-matter-more/">“these largely white groups of protesters that have followed Trudeau have an unfair privilege that has been afforded to them by all aspects of society: they largely get away with their hateful rhetoric and actions, and don’t get called out or punished for it.”</a> </p>
<p>That privilege might also explain a media blind spot. There is a multitude of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1940161220985078">right-wing rage online</a>, and as a society, Canada needs to urgently make sense of the racial and cultural power dynamics that are underlying angry and hateful discourse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fenwick McKelvey receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Fonds de recherche du Québec, and the Government of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott DeJong receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Justin Trudeau has a reputation as a youthful progressive outside of Canada, but among right-wing Canadians online, he’s despised — and he’s been confronted with hostility on the campaign trail.Fenwick McKelvey, Associate Professor in Information and Communication Technology Policy, Concordia UniversityScott DeJong, PhD Candidate and Research Assistant, Communication Studies, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1587472021-05-18T15:46:46Z2021-05-18T15:46:46ZStrategic extremism: 4 insights on the U.S. Capitol siege from established insurgencies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400804/original/file-20210514-15-1wvkoll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C6000%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this Jan. 6, 2021, photo, Donald Trump supporters gather outside the U.S. Capitol as protesters begin to raid the building.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Protesters waving Trump signs stand outside the U.S. Capitol.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the coming weeks, trials will begin for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/guilty-plea-capitol-riot/2021/04/16/f7d5d420-9eb6-11eb-9d05-ae06f4529ece_story.html">more than 400 people</a> accused of attacking the United States Capitol. </p>
<p>Was the siege <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2f56a611445df15fb9640893bb9f7a93">chaotic</a>, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/investigators-probing-if-us-capitol-attack-was-planned-with-help-from-insiders/">impromptu</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/american-far-right-dangerous-disorganized-capitol-assault-failure">disorganized</a>, or was it the work of a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/american-far-right-dangerous-disorganized-capitol-assault-failure/">well-planned force</a> of far-right militias, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2021/03/24/capitol-attack-oath-keepers-proud-boys-three-percenters-coordinated/6980128002/">as mounting evidence suggests</a>? Can an attack be both chaotic and planned? </p>
<p>We study insurgencies, and not only is it possible, but it’s <a href="https://www.academia.edu/43790766/Armed_Group_Proliferation_Origins_and_Consequences">very common</a>. Drawing on our research, here are four insights into the events of Jan. 6 and the future of far-right violence in the U.S. </p>
<h2>1. Coordination only requires a date</h2>
<p>After the presidential election, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/15/tech/facebook-stop-the-steal-evasion/index.html">thousands of “Stop the Steal” groups</a> formed online. They organized hundreds of small-scale protests and militia actions <a href="https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2020/11/07/lansing-michigan-protestors-rally-against-election-results-joe-biden-appears-win/6202486002/">in Michigan</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/11/07/election-protests-updates-trump-supporters-state-capitols-biden-win/6203271002/">Oregon</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/11/07/election-protests-updates-trump-supporters-state-capitols-biden-win/6203271002/">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.independent.ie/world-news/stop-the-steal-trump-supporters-chant-and-protest-outside-arizona-vote-centre-39709726.html">Arizona</a>. They then reached the crucial moment in any movement — how do you unite hundreds of uncoordinated people into one cohesive action? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump and Stop the Steal signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400806/original/file-20210514-19-13xu8sg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flags supporting Trump and one that reads ‘Stop the Steal’ are displayed during a protest rally on Jan. 4 in Olympia, Wash.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An innovative solution emerged in the Arab Spring of 2011 — find someone respected by potential protesters and insurgents to fix a date for action: Tunisia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-protests-tunisia/tunisian-day-of-rage-takes-aim-at-premier-idUSTRE71O6QB20110225">(Jan. 14</a>), Egypt <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12272836">(Jan. 25)</a>, Libya (<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/02/18/what-if-libya-staged-a-revolution-and-nobody-came/">Feb. 17</a>) and Syria (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/4/29/scores-killed-on-syrias-day-of-rage">April 29</a>). </p>
<p>Defeated president Donald Trump played this role after he lost the election, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jan/11/timeline-what-trump-said-jan-6-capitol-riot/">calling for a protest on Jan. 6 in Washington.</a> Establishing that date allowed protesters and potential insurrectionists to coordinate without direct communication. Calling for a protest allowed those with violent intentions to plan in plain sight and avoid drawing the attention of authorities. </p>
<h2>2. Insurgents hide their first attacks amid chaos</h2>
<p>Insurgents’ first attacks are especially risky. Armed action immediately draws the state’s attention, and most groups are too fragile to survive. A more <a href="http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/de/about-us/highlights/highlight-after-the-fall.html">common insurgent strategy</a> is to launch attacks alongside mass protests. It allows the attackers to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/proud-boys-leader-capitol-riot/2021/03/02/0ca15138-7aed-11eb-85cd-9b7fa90c8873_story.html">wait in the open</a> until they see an opportunity. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Trump supporter kneels with a Bible in Black Lives Matter Plaza surrounded by Biden supporters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400813/original/file-20210514-15-12e0nwc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Trump supporter kneels with a Bible in Black Lives Matter Plaza in Washington in November 2020. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The protests also give insurgents an advantage: state forces are distracted and overwhelmed by unarmed protesters. The chaos of large protests also tricks observers into concluding the attack was not pre-planned, reducing the impulse to find those responsible.</p>
<p>On Jan. 6, there is substantial evidence that far-right and white supremacist groups <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/capitol-rally-organizers-before-riots/2021/01/16/c5b40250-552d-11eb-a931-5b162d0d033d_story.html">incited protesters at critical moments</a> to breach police lines. </p>
<p>The Oath Keepers deployed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/us/politics/oath-keepers-capitol-riot.html">“30 to 40 members”</a> to Washington and coordinated closely while in the crowd through Zello, a walk-talkie style phone app. A similar group, the Proud Boys, did not even attend the rally, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/brothers-charged-eugene-goodman-chase/2021/01/29/80dec868-6239-11eb-afbe-9a11a127d146_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_8">choosing to wait at the Capitol for the protesters</a> to arrive before taking any action. </p>
<h2>3. Legitimacy is all that matters</h2>
<p>Insurgencies’ chances of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/how-insurgency-begins/8798DEF1B3A5563C402E4F5D4617C8CA">survival increase with popular support.</a> Societies usually reject political violence as too extreme, ostracizing those responsible and reporting them to authorities. However, if enough people and prominent political leaders back a group’s cause, they become harder to defeat. </p>
<p>There are two main reasons for this. First, individuals and communities provide financial and political support, the lifeblood of any uprising. And second, popular support and legitimacy makes recruiting easy. </p>
<p>Twenty years of counter-insurgency efforts in Afghanistan demonstrated that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/world/asia/taliban-afghanistan-war.html">military superiority cannot overcome an insurgency when it’s seen as legitimate by local communities</a>. In the U.S., the majority of Republicans continue to believe that the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-trump-election-falsehood/2021/05/01/7bd380a0-a921-11eb-8c1a-56f0cb4ff3b5_story.html">election was stolen</a>, a lie that was the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/us/capitol-rioters.html">primary motive for the Capitol attack</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/opinion/donald-trump-republican-party.html">Trump’s firm grip on the Republican party</a> and the potential for him to escalate his rhetoric in advance of the mid-term congressional elections in 2022 and the 2024 presidential election means he could fuel more organized forms of violence. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump supporters wave flags and hold a sign that say Trump Won" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400808/original/file-20210514-13-s4c0r1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump supporters wait for his motorcade on the road to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate, on Jan. 20, after Joe Biden’s inauguration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Insurgents adapt quickly</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/iraq-war">Iraqi insurgency against U.S. troops from 2003-2011</a> provides the most worrying lesson of all. After the total defeat of the Iraqi military in only a matter of days, hundreds of tiny insurgent groups, including private militias, quickly learned how to avoid American surveillance and use <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/lethal-roadside-bomb-that-killed-scores-of-us-troops-reappears-in-iraq/2017/10/11/87c5a57c-aeb7-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html">roadside bombs to devastating effect against the U.S. military</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="George W. Bush stands in front of a podium on an aircraft carrier with a banner behind him declaring Mission Accomplished." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400811/original/file-20210514-17-15duqs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 2003 photo, President George W. Bush declares the end of major combat in Iraq as he speaks aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the California coast. The war dragged on for many years after that.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the Jan. 6 attackers were inept, leaving a trail of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/arts/television/capitol-riot-graphic-videos.html">incriminating evidence</a>. Insurgents rarely make the same mistakes twice, in part because ineffective insurgents are arrested or killed. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/guilty-plea-capitol-riot/2021/04/16/f7d5d420-9eb6-11eb-9d05-ae06f4529ece_story.html">Mass arrests</a> might be a comfort for those horrified by the events on Jan. 6, but it also creates a “natural selection” effect. </p>
<p>The more careful and adaptive groups survive and teach others their tactics, ensuring <a href="https://www.academia.edu/43790766/Armed_Group_Proliferation_Origins_and_Consequences">those that remain are more effective because they’re harder to detect and more cautious</a>. This same logic applies to de-platforming movement members online: the next iteration of alt-right social media accounts will be <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/972519460/across-the-internet-a-game-of-whac-a-mole-is-underway-to-root-out-extremism">more adept at evading bans</a>. </p>
<h2>Cautionary lessons</h2>
<p>So what does this mean for the U.S. in the months and years ahead?</p>
<p>Most insurgencies <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/how-insurgency-begins/8798DEF1B3A5563C402E4F5D4617C8CA">are defeated quickly</a>. Those that survive have consistent funding and support from prominent leaders and sympathetic communities. </p>
<p>This serves as a cautionary lesson: the militia groups behind the Capitol attack seemed to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/us/capitol-riot-funding.html">raised substantial funds</a>. These groups continue to receive political support from <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-campaign-2016-election-2020-government-and-politics-f3428d42d4d3fdfe59c560b6fadbbc70">Republican party members</a> and <a href="https://promarket.org/2021/05/03/problem-america-misinformation-scale-digital-platforms/">online communities</a>, despite <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/6/21552752/facebook-stopthesteal-ban-twitter-parler-discord-trump">attempts to remove them</a> from various social media platforms. </p>
<p>Crucially, research shows that cracking down on political movements often <a href="https://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc262/p805091_A1b.pdf">pushes its members into the arms of violent extremists</a>. Evidence suggests the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00546-3">conditions are ripe for far-right extremist networks to persist</a>, posing a serious threat over the next decade.</p>
<p>There are lessons to be learned in how political violence has been organized in other areas of the world that can help us anticipate the future of right-wing extremism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian McQuinn receives funding from SSHRC</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Courchesne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, how political violence has been organized in other areas of the world that can help us anticipate the future of right-wing extremism.Brian McQuinn, Assistant Professor, International Studies, University of ReginaLaura Courchesne, PhD Candidate, International Relations, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1564632021-03-15T12:59:17Z2021-03-15T12:59:17ZAfter the insurrection, America’s far-right groups get more extreme<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389153/original/file-20210311-14-148i0gn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C52%2C5000%2C3570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Capitol remains on lockdown, defended by the National Guard.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/national-guard-soldiers-patrol-outside-the-us-capitol-on-news-photo/1231535500">Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As the U.S. grapples with domestic extremism in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, warnings about more violence are coming from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/us/politics/wray-domestic-terrorism-capitol.html">FBI Director Chris Wray</a> and <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/domestic-terror-law-blindspot-capitol-attack-1568352">others</a>. The Conversation asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fjys1XAAAAAJ&hl=en">Matthew Valasik</a>, a sociologist at Louisiana State University, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=cLpO6QwAAAAJ">Shannon E. Reid</a>, a criminologist at the University of North Carolina – Charlotte, to explain what right-wing extremist groups in the U.S. are doing. The scholars are co-authors of “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300453/alt-right-gangs">Alt-Right Gangs: A Hazy Shade of White</a>,” published in September 2020; they track the activities of far-right groups like the Proud Boys.</em></p>
<h2>What are U.S. extremist groups doing since the Jan. 6 riot?</h2>
<p>Local chapters of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/us/extremism-capitol-riot.html">Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Groypers and others</a> are breaking away from their groups’ national figureheads. For instance, some local Proud Boys chapters have been <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/12/proud-boys-splintering-after-capitol-riot-revelations-leader/6709017002/">explicitly cutting ties</a> with national leader Enrique Tarrio, the group’s chairman.</p>
<p>Tarrio was arrested on federal weapons charges in the days before the insurrection, but he has also been revealed as a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-proudboys-leader-exclusive/exclusive-proud-boys-leader-was-prolific-informer-for-law-enforcement-idUSKBN29W1PE">longtime FBI informant</a>. He reportedly aided authorities in a variety of criminal cases, including those involving <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/proud-boys-enrique-tarrio-fbi-informer/2021/01/27/21c1df0e-60be-11eb-9430-e7c77b5b0297_story.html">drug sales, gambling and human smuggling</a> – though he has not yet been connected with cases against Proud Boys members.</p>
<p>When a leader of a far-right group or street gang leaves, regardless of the reason, it is common for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1038106">struggle to emerge</a> among remaining members who seek to consolidate power. That can result in violence spilling over into the community as groups attempt to reshape themselves. </p>
<p>While some of the splinter Proud Boys chapters will likely maintain the Proud Boys brand, at least for the time being, others may evolve and become more radicalized. <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjpb5q/for-some-joining-the-proud-boys-was-a-stop-on-the-way-to-neo-nazi-terror">The Base, a neo-Nazi terror group</a>, has recruited from among the ranks of Proud Boys. As the Proud Boys sheds affiliates, it would not be surprising for those with <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/wx8xp4/a-proud-boys-lawyer-wanted-to-be-a-nazi-terrorist">more enthusiasm</a> about hateful activism to seek out more extreme groups. Less committed groups will wither away.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in sunglasses stands outside" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389151/original/file-20210311-13-1aibpdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Enrique Tarrio, the national leader of the Proud Boys, outside the Conservative Political Action Conference in February.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/enrique-tarrio-leader-of-the-proud-boys-is-seen-outside-the-news-photo/1231447173">Eva Marie Uzcategui Trinkl/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does that response compare with what happened after 2017’s ‘Unite the Right’ rally in Charlottesville?</h2>
<p>Neither the Capitol insurrection nor the Charlottesville rally produced the response from mainstream America that far-right groups had hoped for. Rather than rising up in a groundswell of support, most Americans were appalled – some so much that they have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/01/962246187/spurred-by-the-capitol-riot-thousands-of-republicans-drop-their-party">abandoned the Republican Party</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, right-wingers have been hit hard by the post-insurrection actions by <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-social-media-bans-twitter-facebook-parler-d8e985e0-0c59-4386-95c7-a2aa3ff0096e.html">large technology companies</a> like Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Google and Amazon. They took down far-right group members’ accounts and removed right-wing social media platforms, including <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html">permanently blacklisting Donald Trump’s Twitter account</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-was-parler-shut-down-heres-why-the-social-network-is-offline-11610478890">temporarily blocking all traffic to Parler, a conservative social media platform</a>. Those steps are <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/parler-bans-new-chapter-free-speech-wars/">more significant</a> than earlier moderation and algorithm changes those companies had undertaken in previous efforts to curb online extremism.</p>
<p>Another major difference is the lack of regret. Nobody on the right wanted to be associated with Charlottesville after it happened. Figureheads of the far right who had <a href="http://idavox.com/index.php/2017/08/26/the-internet-never-forgets-how-gavin-mcinnis-attempts-to-delete-charlottesville-support-message-but-cant/">initially promoted that rally</a> saw the negative public reaction and <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/09/21/gavin-mcinnes-alt-right-proud-boys-richard-spencer-charlottesville/">distanced themselves, even condemning</a> the “Unite the Right” rally.</p>
<p>After the insurrection at the Capitol, their response was different. They did not split and blame other right-wing groups. Instead, conservative and extreme-right circles have united behind a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/02/972564176/antifa-didnt-storm-the-capitol-just-ask-the-rioters">false claim that they did nothing wrong</a>, and alleged, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-far-right-rioters-at-the-capitol-were-not-antifa-but-violent-groups-often-blame-rivals-for-unpopular-attacks-153193">left-wing activists assaulted the Capitol</a> – while disguised as right-wingers.</p>
<h2>Are extremist groups attracting new members?</h2>
<p>Some members have left extremist groups in the wake of the Jan. 6 violence. The members who remain, and the new members they are attracting, are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/opinion/domestic-terrorism-far-right-insurrection.html">increasing the radicalization of far-right groups</a>. As the less committed members abandon these far-right groups, only the more devout remain. Such a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/3/3/2019262/-Warning-of-III-militia-plot-fueled-by-March-4-conspiracy-theories-induces-House-to-shut-down">shift is going to alter the subculture</a> of these groups, driving them farther to the right. We expect this <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/podcasts/the-growing-threat-of-far-right-extremism">polarization will only accelerate the reactionary behaviors and extremist tendencies</a> of these far-right groups.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/23/959884145/how-conservative-media-has-covered-bidens-first-days-as-president">Right-wing pundits</a> and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-washington-military-occupation-liberal-fear">conservative media</a> are continuing to stoke fears about the Biden administration. We and other observers of right-wing groups expect that extremists will come to see <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/08/capitol-mob-far-right-trump-propaganda/">the events of Jan. 6 as just the opening skirmish in a modern civil war</a>. We anticipate they will continue to seek an end to American democracy and the beginning of a new society free – or even purged – of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/19/magazine/boogaloo.html">groups the right wing fears</a>, including immigrants, Jewish people, nonwhites, LGBTQ people and those who value multiculturalism.</p>
<p>We expect that these groups will continue to <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2021/01/22/capitol-insurrection-shows-how-trends-far-rights-fringe-have-become-mainstream">shift more and more to the extreme right</a>, posing risks for acts of violence both large and small.</p>
<h2>Have far-right extremists’ views toward the police changed?</h2>
<p>With a Democratic administration and attorney general, the far right will no longer view federal law enforcement agencies as friendly, the way they did under the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-riot-exposes-far-right-police-officers-longstanding-issue-2021-1">Trump administration</a>. Rather, they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/capitol-police-officers-support/2021/01/08/a16e07a2-51da-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html">view the police as the enemy</a>. </p>
<p>Even before Joe Biden took office and the Republicans officially lost control of the U.S. Senate, the Capitol riot showed this divide between right-wing extremists and police. A Capitol Police officer was assaulted with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/11/police-beating-capitol-mob/">flagpole bearing an American flag</a>, and some members of the mob were <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0114/Capitol-assault-Why-did-police-show-up-on-both-sides-of-thin-blue-line">police officers and military personnel</a>. Many more were <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/21/958915267/nearly-one-in-five-defendants-in-capitol-riot-cases-served-in-the-military">military veterans</a>.</p>
<p>It’s not clear what this different view of law enforcement means for police officers, active-duty military and veterans who are members of right-wing groups. But we anticipate that only those who are most zealously committed to far-right causes will remain active. That, in turn, will push those groups <a href="https://theconversation.com/armed-groups-from-capitol-riot-pose-longer-term-threat-to-biden-presidency-153580">even farther to the extreme right</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man at a lectern" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389154/original/file-20210311-16-ziit0g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attorney General Merrick Garland has decades of experience fighting right-wing extremism in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenAttorneyGeneral/19424077c4cc4862a13d15175a8566df/photo">Kevin Dietsch/Pool via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Has anything changed for militias since Biden has become president?</h2>
<p>In 2009, the <a href="https://fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf">Department of Homeland Security issued a report warning</a> about the growing membership in far-right groups, including their active recruitment of military veterans. Shortly after the report was released, <a href="https://www.wired.com/2012/08/dhs/">Republicans in Congress</a> pushed for the <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633885165/Hateland-A-Long-Hard-Look-at-America%27s-Extremist-Heart">report to be retracted</a> and for <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2011/inside-dhs-former-top-analyst-says-agency-bowed-political-pressure">dramatically reducing the federal effort</a> to monitor far-right groups in the U.S. This permissive atmosphere allowed far-right groups to grow and spread nationwide. </p>
<p>The Trump administration further served far-right groups by failing to pay out <a href="https://time.com/5944085/far-right-extremism-biden/">federal grants for grassroots counterviolence programs</a>, by <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/trump-shut-countering-violent-extremism-program/574237/">refusing to help</a> local law enforcement agencies with equipment or training to deal with these groups, and by routinely <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/26/trump-domestic-extemism-homeland-security-401926">downplaying the violence</a> perpetrated by these white power groups. Essentially, far-right groups were unpoliced for the past decade or more.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>But that approach has ended. Merrick Garland’s appointment as Biden’s attorney general is a big signal: In his career at the Department of Justice before becoming a federal judge, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/merrick-garland-oklahoma-city-bombing/2021/02/19/a9e6adde-67f2-11eb-8468-21bc48f07fe5_story.html">Garland supervised the investigations of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing</a>.</p>
<p>These were two of the most noteworthy acts of far-right domestic terrorism in the nation’s history. Garland has said that he will make fighting right-wing violence and attacks on democracy <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/539885-garland-pledges-to-prioritize-domestic-terrorism-battle">major priorities of his tenure</a> at the head of the Justice Department.</p>
<p>In January, Canada designated the <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkdw8z/what-canadas-terror-laws-mean-for-proud-boys">Proud Boys and other right-wing groups as terrorist organizations</a>, which puts pressure on U.S. law enforcement to reconsider how they <a href="https://theconversation.com/designating-the-proud-boys-a-terrorist-organization-wont-stop-hate-fuelled-violence-154709">evaluate, investigate and prosecute</a> these extremist groups. Beyond law enforcement’s treating these far-right groups like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/03/the-proud-boys-are-a-far-right-gang-trump-boosted-them-on-national-tv">street gangs</a>, there are also laws in place to combat <a href="https://www.insider.com/canada-is-considering-labeling-proud-boys-a-terrorist-organization-2021-1">violence associated with domestic terrorism</a>. </p>
<p>It appears that U.S. prosecutors may finally begin to take seriously the violent actions of Proud Boys, especially as more and more members are being charged with coordinating the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/proud-boys-leader-capitol-riot/2021/03/02/0ca15138-7aed-11eb-85cd-9b7fa90c8873_story.html">breach of the U.S. Capitol Building</a>.</p>
<p>But as police power comes to bear on these violent right-wing groups, many of their members remain at least as radicalized as they were on Jan. 6 – if not more so. Some may feel that <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/03/militia-armed-uprising-biden-bundy-haaland-interior.html">more extreme measures</a> are needed to resist the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/qanon-theorists-switch-date-march-20-after-no-trump-inauguration-call-4th-false-flag-1573871">Biden administration</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New members are joining and some are leaving – as right-wing groups reorganize, scholars of the movement foresee increased polarization, with a risk of more violence.Matthew Valasik, Associate Professor of Sociology, Louisiana State University Shannon Reid, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice and Criminology, University of North Carolina – CharlotteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1539712021-02-17T13:21:52Z2021-02-17T13:21:52ZHow the National Guard became the go-to military force for riots and civil disturbances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384553/original/file-20210216-13-1dg02bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C49%2C6645%2C4383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Virginia National Guard troops in front of the U.S. Capitol building, Feb. 5, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/virginia-national-guard-troops-walk-down-the-capitol-steps-news-photo/1230985766">Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.stripes.com/news/us/5-000-national-guard-troops-will-remain-in-dc-beyond-mid-march-1.659837">Pentagon has approved leaving 5,000 troops</a> deployed indefinitely to protect the U.S. Capitol from domestic extremist threats, down from about 26,000 deployed after the Jan. 6 insurrection.</p>
<p>The National Guard is a federally funded <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/what-is-national-guard-trnd/index.html">reserve force</a> of the U.S. Army or Air Force based in states. These part-time citizen soldiers typically hold civilian jobs but can be activated by state governors <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-president-really-order-the-military-to-occupy-us-cities-and-states-139844">or the president</a> to respond to natural disasters, health emergencies or violent protests, or to support military operations overseas. Although many Americans are <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/optics-matter-national-guard-deployments-amid-unrest-have-a-long-and-controversial-history">skeptical of any military response</a> to civilian unrest, the National Guard is widely seen as a <a href="https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=467769">reliable peacekeeping force</a>. </p>
<p>It wasn’t always this way. The National Guard has a complicated history of responding to civil disturbances.</p>
<h2>History of the National Guard</h2>
<p>The modern National Guard evolved from Colonial-era militias. </p>
<p>Because of post-Revolutionary fears over the cost and potential tyranny of a <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI_S8_C12_1_1/">standing army</a>, the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-1/section-8/clause-15-16/the-militia-clauses">Constitution</a> authorized citizens to form militias that would “execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions.” </p>
<p>Subsequent <a href="https://constitution.org/1-Activism/mil/mil_act_1792.htm">militia acts</a> confirmed state authority over the militia with responsibility as a national military reserve for defense and peacekeeping. By the 19th century, local militias were almost everywhere, but they varied widely in <a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska/9780803229709/">mandate and quality</a>.</p>
<p>In the South, militias – <a href="https://www.scencyclopedia.org/sce/entries/slave-patrols/">once used to hunt down escaped slaves</a> – continued to <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-history-of-white-supremacists-interpreting-government-leaders-words-as-encouragement-137873">enforce white supremacy</a> after the Civil War, <a href="https://muse-jhu-edu.ezproxy.csbsju.edu/article/380947">attacking Republican politicians and killing Black voters</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in fits and starts, New York’s militias were becoming <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-National-Guard-Evolution-1865-1920/dp/0803264283">well funded, trained and regulated</a>, as, increasingly, were <a href="https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy.csbsju.edu/stable/27553270?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">those in the Midwest</a>.</p>
<h2>National Guard and labor wars</h2>
<p>By the late 19th century, state and local militias were regularly being used to respond to civil disorder. </p>
<p>Still, when more than 100,000 workers across the U.S. protested wage cuts by walking off the job for up to six weeks in what was called the <a href="https://ohiohistorycentral.org/w/Great_Railroad_Strike_of_1877">Great Labor Strikes of 1877</a>, state and city officials throughout the country hesitated to call out their militias to reopen the railroads. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/641532">my historical research</a>, officials feared that militiamen might sympathize with the workers’ uprising. Secretary of War George McCrary was among them. In a <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=tysXAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA266&lpg=PA266&dq=%22this+fact+alone+renders+the+local+militia+unreliable+in+such+an+emergency%22&source=bl&ots=E8bS2RYDRb&sig=ACfU3U10BNcacjosfCCgzcyew-6MGIs7vA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwil6Pjvh-juAhWGB80KHe1mDSoQ6AEwAXoECAQQAg#v=onepage&q=%22this%20fact%20alone%20renders%20the%20local%20militia%20unreliable%20in%20such%20an%20emergency%22&f=false">report that year</a>, he argued that the Army was more dependable in strikes than local militias. </p>
<p>“Uprisings enlist in a greater or less degree the sympathy of the communities in which they occur,” he argued, calling local militia “unreliable in such an emergency.” </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and white illustration of militia in city streets" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384616/original/file-20210217-21-bfqwyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 6th Baltimore Regiment, a Maryland militia, on strike duty in 1877.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Harpers_8_11_1877_6th_Regiment_Fighting_Baltimore.jpg/696px-Harpers_8_11_1877_6th_Regiment_Fighting_Baltimore.jpg">Harper's Weekly magazine</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The state militias also lacked uniform <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-National-Guard-Evolution-1865-1920/dp/0803264283/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1613260967&sr=1-1">discipline, centralized command structure and tactical training</a>.
Many militiamen <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=lsgscx5TyyoC&pg=PA156&lpg=PA156&dq=%22lessons+learned+the+ing+and+strike+duty,+1894-1916%22&source=bl&ots=ag3pISCgrG&sig=ACfU3U1oOUiCbEQdUtHlbrXWkYnHzPILFg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjCjavOjujuAhUFU80KHTCDAPMQ6AEwBXoECAgQAg#v=onepage&q=%22lessons%20learned%20the%20ing%20and%20strike%20duty%2C%201894-1916%22&f=false">hated being deployed on labor strike or riot duty within their own communities</a>. They did not want to be seen as pawns of big business, and unions increasingly prohibited their members from joining militias.</p>
<p>The 1877 labor strikes highlighted <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=nHsJBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA183&lpg=PA183&dq=%22local+militia+unreliable%22&source=bl&ots=p3mR4h8Zw2&sig=ACfU3U3FCTkKQ6DAj2I_o8PYX2AOFHoJlw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjn7szfkdbuAhWRK80KHVkbCOoQ6AEwAHoECAMQAg#v=onepage&q=%22local%20militia%20unreliable%22&f=false">the need for well-trained state militias</a> with clear mandates. State legislatures began to ramp up funding for militias, which came to be called the National Guard. </p>
<p>Over the next half-century, the Guard’s role as a viable federal reserve to the U.S. Army, <a href="https://history.army.mil/news/2016/160500a_natDefAct1916.html">under the control of the War Department</a>, became <a href="https://history.army.mil/documents/1901/Root-NG.htm">federally codified</a>. Between 1900 and 1915, the U.S. government invested US$60 million for National Guard training, weapons and soldier pay. </p>
<h2>Racial uprisings</h2>
<p>By the 1960s, the National Guard had an annual budget nearing <a href="https://www.nationalguard.mil/About-the-Guard/Historical-Publications/Annual-Reports/FileId/134540/">$950 million</a>. Between 1965 and 1971, the Army National Guard was deployed <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/210/203694.pdf">260 times</a> to maintain order during urban and anti-war civil disturbances such as those following the death of Martin Luther King Jr. </p>
<p>But the National Guard was still predominantly white and male, and its discipline and training again came under scrutiny during the era’s racial uprisings. </p>
<p>In 1967, inexperienced National Guard troops with as little as <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/210/203694.pdf">six hours of riot training</a> were deployed to racial uprisings by Black residents in <a href="https://detroithistorical.org/learn/encyclopedia-of-detroit/uprising-1967">Detroit</a> and in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/11/nyregion/newark-riots-50-years.html">Newark</a>, New Jersey. Rather than keep the peace, they responded with lethal force. Of 43 deaths in Detroit’s five days of protests, <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/detroitriot/2017/07/23/victims-detroit-riot-1967/499550001/">Guardsmen were responsible for at least nine</a>. One victim was 4-year-old Tonia Blanding, who was killed on July 26, 1967, when <a href="https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy.csbsju.edu/stable/2784247?seq=5#metadata_info_tab_contents">Guardsmen shot into her apartment building</a> based on rumors of snipers. </p>
<p>In Newark, then-police director Dominick Spina condemned the untrained Guardsmen for creating a “<a href="https://www.blackpast.org/african-american-history/national-advisory-commission-civil-disorders-kerner-report-1967/">state of hysteria</a>” in his city during demonstrations in July 1967 following rumors that a Black man had been killed in police custody. </p>
<p>President Lyndon B. Johnson formed the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders, known as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/us/kerner-commission-report.html">Kerner Commission</a>, to investigate 1967’s civil unrest. The commission’s report urged the federal government to develop guidelines governing riot control and <a href="http://www.eisenhowerfoundation.org/docs/kerner/Kerner_C12.pdf">fund research into such alternatives</a> to lethal weapons as tear gas and sound cannons, which were pursued.</p>
<h2>Deaths at Kent State</h2>
<p>On May 4, 1970, National Guardsmen responded to student anti-war protests at <a href="https://www.kent.edu/may-4-1970">Kent State University</a> in Ohio. When the soldiers ran out of tear gas, students threw bricks and bottles at them. The soldiers opened fire, killing four students and injuring nine.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black-and-white image of three running young people, chased by a dozen armed soldiers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/384554/original/file-20210216-19-1ktdd57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the Kent State killings, students at the University of New Mexico flee the National Guard on May 4, 1970.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com.mx/detail/fotografía-de-noticias/following-the-may-4-1970-shooting-of-students-fotografía-de-noticias/526095104?adppopup=true">Steven Clevenger/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/04/kent-state-massacre-marked-start-of-americas-polarization">Americans supported the Guard’s actions</a> at Kent State, while others were anguished. President Richard Nixon’s <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED083899.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1OYAUxWVXtSsUbSHlCO67UY0VLqfMz9VgUXpfwLm12RhWVNEUhD-ThbLM">Commission on Campus Unrest</a> argued in its September 1970 report that “even if the guardsmen faced danger, it was not a danger that called for lethal force.” </p>
<p>“The Kent State tragedy must mark the last time that … loaded rifles are issued to guardsmen confronting student demonstrators,” the report concluded.</p>
<h2>Making a modern Guard</h2>
<p>The outcry over civilian deaths in Detroit, Newark, Kent State and elsewhere resulted in <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/210/203694.pdf">changes to the National Guard</a>.</p>
<p>Guardsmen were given more protective equipment and trained in nonlethal methods of crowd control. In the past 50 years, the National Guard has also grown into a more diverse force. Today, nearly <a href="https://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2018-demographics-report.pdf">20% of the Guard members are women and 25% are people of color</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Today, government leaders and civilians see the National Guard as a reliable force for emergency responses of all kinds, from disaster relief to delivering COVID-19 vaccinations.</p>
<p>But the future may hold more troubles. Recent investigations into <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-soldiers-bring-lethal-skill-to-militia-campaigns-against-us-government-153369">white supremacist infiltration of the military and police</a> prompted closer scrutiny of National Guard troops. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/us/politics/national-guard-extremist-pentagon.html">Two members were removed from duty</a> protecting the presidential inauguration because of links with extremist organizations.</p>
<p><em>A caption in this story has been corrected to reflect that the photo was taken of students fleeing the National Guard at the University of New Mexico.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shannon M. Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some 5,000 National Guardsmen will stay in Washington to protect the Capitol into March, according to the Pentagon. The Guard is seen as a reliable peacekeeping force – but it wasn’t always that way.Shannon M. Smith, Associate Professor of History, College of Saint Benedict & Saint John's UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1533752021-01-21T19:57:57Z2021-01-21T19:57:57ZUS could face a simmering, chronic domestic terror problem, warn security experts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379815/original/file-20210120-21-1rz7y7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5507%2C3644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some 25,000 National Guard troops protected Joe Biden's presidential inauguration due to fears of a far-right extremist attack.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-national-guard-gather-near-the-u-s-capitol-news-photo/1297445025?adppopup=true">Stephanie Keith/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/us/politics/biden-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">President Joe Biden took office on Jan. 20, 2021</a> without any violent incidents, many in the United States and worldwide breathed a sigh of relief. </p>
<p>The respite may be brief. The ingredients that led an incensed pro-Trump mob to break into the Capitol and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-inaugurations-capitol-siege-8828a6a920198d0ea1ee0c73a49d8847">plant pipe bombs</a> at other federal buildings on Jan. 6 remain. </p>
<p>Several U.S. security experts say they now consider <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/domestic-terrorism-has-superseded-the-threat-of-international-terrorism-warns-ex-nyc-police-commissioner.html">domestic extremism a greater threat to the country than international terror</a>. According to my <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.031607.094133">research on political violence</a>, the U.S. has all the elements that, combined, can produce a low-intensity terrorist conflict: extreme polarization and armed factions willing to break the law, in a wealthy democracy with a strong government.</p>
<h2>Terror can thrive in affluent democracies too</h2>
<p>Chronic domestic terror is not the same as civil war. </p>
<p>In the modern era, civil wars usually take place in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706289303">poor countries where the government is too weak and unstable to maintain control over a sprawling, often mountainous territory</a>. Rebels take over swaths of the country and seek to replace the authorities in those areas. This is happening in Afghanistan, India and Nigeria, to name a few places. </p>
<p>In the United States, one of the world’s more powerful nations, armed factions have a hard time permanently seizing land. Several dramatic standoffs between fringe extremists and American authorities – including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-capitol-siege-recalls-past-acts-of-christian-nationalist-violence-153059">1993 Waco siege</a> and the Bundy family’s 41-day <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2021/01/armed-occupation-of-malheur-refuge-was-dress-rehearsal-for-violent-takeover-of-nations-capitol-extremist-watchdogs-say.html">occupation of an Oregon wildlife refuge</a> in 2016 – ended <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-deaths-of-76-branch-davidians-in-april-1993-could-have-been-avoided-so-why-didnt-anyone-care-90816">poorly for the extremists</a>. </p>
<p>A huge asymmetry of power between the state and armed factions prevents militants from openly battling to usurp its authority, as rebel groups like the Taliban do and the American Confederates did. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711431800">forces armed groups to act underground</a>, hiding among the general population. Because democratic states cannot, at least on paper, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546559408427271">openly violate human rights by systematically persecuting militants or torturing prisoners</a>, underground armed rebels can thrive in democracies. </p>
<p>But operating in secret <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1059103">imposes heavy logistical constraints</a>, my research shows.</p>
<p>It limits the number of operations they can sustain, meaning thinner ranks than full-fledged insurgencies and fewer overall fatalities than in civil wars. And although all rebels may dream of <a href="https://theconversation.com/fidel-castro-and-the-revolution-that-almost-wasnt-69659">Che Guevara-style guerrilla adventures</a> – heroically liberating “the people” from tyranny – in practice, militants working underground cannot avoid resorting to quintessential terrorist tactics such as bombs, shootings, bank robberies and kidnappings. </p>
<p>Take Italy’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Red-Brigades">Red Brigades</a>, for example. In the 1970s, this far-left organization aimed at overthrowing the capitalist system, but the Italian state was too strong. So the group resorted to terrorism. For two decades, the Red Brigades carried out a low-intensity campaign that killed perhaps 500 people, mainly with bombings and assassinations. They used violence <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/historical-roots-of-political-violence/67C092F25F02FFF74C7DC88CD1499D74">as a strategy to raise consciousness about communism and provoke an insurrection</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black-and-white image of a crowd looking at a bullet-riddled car with shatters windshields and windows" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379805/original/file-20210120-13-o5k892.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A crowd surveys the damage after a Red Brigades attack in Rome, May 3, 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-police-car-hit-by-the-bullets-of-the-red-brigades-news-photo/935698506?adppopup=true">Stefano Montesi - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In reaction to this communist violence, far-right groups like Nuclei Armati Rivoluzionari responded with indiscriminate attacks, including a <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/02/italy-remembers-the-victims-of-the-bologna-massacre-40-years-on">no-warning 1980 train bombing in Bologna that killed 85 civilians</a>. They sought to create a level of disruption so high that it would <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343310392890">justify military intervention against the “enemies of the state”</a> – a fascist coup d'etat.</p>
<p>Both sides lost. There was no insurrection, no intervention. Italian democracy prevailed.</p>
<h2>Lone wolf terror</h2>
<p>The U.S, too, has experience with coordinated domestic terror. </p>
<p>Throughout the early 20th century, the Ku Klux Klan waged vicious campaigns against Black Americans in the South. As the <a href="https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1986.tb00852.x">tide of the civil rights movement</a> ebbed in the late 1960s, radical Marxists like the <a href="https://time.com/4549409/the-weather-underground-bad-moon-rising/">Weather Underground</a> and the <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/s/sclead/umich-scl-bla?view=text">Black Liberation Army</a> emerged, using violence to oppose American military intervention in Vietnam and push for racial equality. </p>
<p>Between 1969 and 1981, these two groups – one predominately white, the other Black – conducted some 200 attacks, from bank robberies to prison breaks. Fifteen people were killed, most of them security officers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two Black men in handcuffs in a paddy wagon smile at the camera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379816/original/file-20210120-21-1ymsjze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alleged Black Liberation Army member Henry Brown, center, was arrested in the slayings of two New York City police officers, Oct. 4, 1973. He was later acquitted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/black-liberation-army-member-henry-brown-left-accused-in-news-photo/540674374?adppopup=true">Vic DeLucia/New York Post Archives /(c) NYP Holdings, Inc. via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The FBI engaged in heavy-handed repression, particularly against Black militants. And Americans had scant interest in far left-wing goals like helping the oppressed peoples of the world. Both groups dwindled without much fanfare. </p>
<p>U.S. history has also featured a smattering of fringe, <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-age-of-lone-wolf-terrorism/9780231181747">lone wolf terrorists</a>, from the Unabomber on the left to the Atlanta Olympics bomber Eric Rudolph on the right. This trend has recently accelerated, with a deadly new massacre each year. Individual white supremacists, in particular, have attacked immigrants and people of color, in Charleston, South Carolina, El Paso, Texas and beyond.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.adl.org/media/14107/download">According to the Anti-Defamation League</a>, which tracks hate crimes, 2019 was one of the deadliest years for “domestic extremist-related killings” since 1970, with 42 victims in 17 separate incidents.</p>
<h2>Trump’s militias</h2>
<p>Attacks characterized by lone wolf perpetrators have the advantage of limiting legal scrutiny on the extremist milieu. But <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/58/2/336/2963248">with coordination, armed campaigns can scale up to do much more damage</a>.</p>
<p>To overcome the lone wolf stage, disparate militant groups must organize around a common theme that gives coherence to their violence. <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-yorkers-knew-donald-trump-first-and-they-spurned-him-before-many-american-voters-did-148303">Trump’s electoral defeat</a> gave his <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-supporters-seeking-more-violence-could-target-state-capitols-during-inauguration-heres-how-cities-can-prepare-153285">armed followers a big one</a>: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-twitter-feed-shows-arc-of-the-hero-from-savior-to-showdown-152888">myth of a stolen election</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3735%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in militia gear lies face down on the ground in handcuffs with police standing over" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3735%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379813/original/file-20210120-17-1h5gtqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police arrest a far-right protester during a pro-Trump rally on Sept. 7, 2020 in Salem, Ore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-arrest-a-far-right-protester-after-a-clash-with-news-photo/1228394654?adppopup=true">Nathan Howard/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Trump presidency emboldened a <a href="https://theconversation.com/police-soldiers-bring-lethal-skill-to-militia-campaigns-against-us-government-153369">cabal of armed groups with a far-right agenda</a>. Seeing their leader out of power will only grow this feeling of frustration. So will new repression of the far right, in the form of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-extremists/u-s-intelligence-reports-warn-of-extremist-threat-around-election-idUSKBN26K2J7">arrests, surveillance</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-deplatforming-work-to-curb-hate-speech-and-calls-for-violence-3-experts-in-online-communications-weigh-in-153177">social media clampdowns</a>.</p>
<p>With Democrats controlling Washington and elections perceived as rigged, American far-right groups may believe further violence is the only way to counter what they see as federal overreach. </p>
<p>If they pursue terrorism, <a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.42">history shows</a> their chances of succeeding are negligible. But this won’t stop them from trying.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis De la Calle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Far-right extremists in the US have the potential to mount a coordinated, low-intensity campaign of political violence. It wouldn’t be the country’s first experience with domestic terror.Luis De la Calle, Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University and Associate Professor in Political Science, Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531772021-01-15T17:28:17Z2021-01-15T17:28:17ZDoes ‘deplatforming’ work to curb hate speech and calls for violence? 3 experts in online communications weigh in<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378893/original/file-20210114-17-ex1p2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3024%2C2670&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Twitter's suspension of Donald Trump's account took away his preferred means of communicating with millions of his followers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Trump-Social-Media-Bans/cc1537d419074084883392df7ae6f066/photo?Query=Trump%20Twitter%20ban&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=29&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Tali Arbel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-capitol-protesters-egged-on-by-trump-are-part-of-a-long-history-of-white-supremacists-hearing-politicians-words-as-encouragement-152867">assault on the U.S. Capitol</a> on Jan. 6, Twitter <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kicking-trump-off-twitter-can-and-cant-do/">permanently suspended Donald Trump’s personal account</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-techs-rejection-of-parler-shuts-down-a-site-favored-by-trump-supporters-and-used-by-participants-in-the-us-capitol-insurrection-153070">Google, Apple and Amazon shunned Parler</a>, which at least temporarily shut down the social media platform favored by the far right.</p>
<p>Dubbed “deplatforming,” these actions <a href="https://theconversation.com/8chans-demise-is-a-win-against-hate-but-could-drive-extremists-to-the-dark-web-121521">restrict the ability of individuals and communities to communicate</a> with each other and the public. Deplatforming <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/08/08/alex-jones-infowars-tech-companies-social-media-censorship-column/929471002/">raises ethical and legal questions</a>, but foremost is the question of whether it’s an effective strategy to reduce hate speech and calls for violence on social media.</p>
<p>The Conversation U.S. asked three experts in online communications whether deplatforming works and what happens when technology companies attempt it.</p>
<h2>Sort of, but it’s not a long-term solution</h2>
<p><strong>Jeremy Blackburn, assistant professor of computer science, Binghamton University</strong></p>
<p>The question of how effective deplatforming is can be looked at from two different angles: Does it work from a technical standpoint, and does it have an effect on worrisome communities themselves?</p>
<p>Does deplatforming work from a technical perspective?</p>
<p>Gab was the first “major” platform <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/5/18049132/gab-social-network-online-synagogue-shooting-deplatforming-return-godaddy-paypal-stripe-ban">subject to deplatforming efforts</a>, first with removal from app stores and, after the <a href="https://www.adl.org/education/educator-resources/lesson-plans/deadly-shooting-at-the-tree-of-life-synagogue">Tree of Life shooting</a>, the withdrawal of cloud infrastructure providers, domain name providers and other Web-related services. Before the shooting, my colleagues and I showed in a study that Gab was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3184558.3191531">an alt-right echo chamber</a> with worrisome trends of hateful content. Although Gab was deplatformed, it managed to survive by shifting to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3355369.3355572">decentralized technologies</a> and has shown a degree of innovation – for example, developing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3419394.3423615">moderation-circumventing Dissenter browser</a>.</p>
<p>From a technical perspective, deplatforming just makes things a bit harder. Amazon’s cloud services make it easy to manage computing infrastructure but are ultimately built on open source technologies available to anyone. A deplatformed company or people sympathetic to it could build their own hosting infrastructure. The research community has also built <a href="https://www.usenix.org/legacy/publications/library/proceedings/sec04/tech/full_papers/dingledine/dingledine_html/index.html">censorship-resistant tools</a> that, if all else fails, harmful online communities can use to persist.</p>
<p>Does deplatforming have an effect on worrisome communities themselves?</p>
<p>Whether or not deplatforming has a social effect is a nuanced question just now beginning to be addressed by the research community. There is evidence that a platform banning communities and content – for example, QAnon or certain politicians – can have a positive effect. Platform banning can reduce <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10397">growth of new users over time, and there is less content produced overall</a>. On the other hand, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.07600">migrations do happen</a>, and this is often a response to real world events – for example, a deplatformed personality who migrates to a new platform can <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.03820">trigger an influx of new users</a>. </p>
<p>Another consequence of deplatforming can be users in the migrated community showing signs of <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10397">becoming more radicalized over time</a>. While Reddit or Twitter might improve with the loss of problematic users, deplatforming can have unintended consequences that can accelerate the problematic behavior that led to deplatforming in the first place.</p>
<p>Ultimately, it’s unlikely that deplatforming, while certainly easy to implement and effective to some extent, will be a long-term solution in and of itself. Moving forward, effective approaches will need to take into account the complicated technological and social consequences of addressing the root problem of extremist and violent Web communities.</p>
<h2>Yes, but driving people into the shadows can be risky</h2>
<p><strong>Ugochukwu Etudo, assistant professor of operations and information management, University of Connecticut</strong></p>
<p>Does the deplatforming of prominent figures and movement leaders who command large followings online work? That depends on the criteria for the success of the policy intervention. If it means punishing the target of the deplatforming so they pay some price, then without a doubt it works. For example, right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos was banned from Twitter in 2016 and Facebook in 2019, and subsequently <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/59n99q/milo-yiannopoulos-says-hes-broke">complained about financial hardship</a>.</p>
<p>If it means dampening the odds of undesirable social outcomes and unrest, then in the short term, yes. But it is not at all certain in the long term. In the short term, deplatforming serves as a shock or disorienting perturbation to a network of people who are being influenced by the target of the deplatforming. This disorientation can weaken the movement, at least initially.</p>
<p>However, there is a risk that deplatforming can delegitimize authoritative sources of information in the eyes of a movement’s followers, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1494-7">remaining adherents can become even more ardent</a>. Movement leaders can reframe deplatforming as censorship and further proof of a mainstream bias.</p>
<p>There is reason to be concerned about the possibility that driving people who engage in harmful online behavior into the shadows further entrenches them in online environments that affirm their biases. Far-right groups and personalities have established a considerable presence on privacy-focused online platforms, including <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08438">the messaging platform Telegram</a>. This migration is concerning because researchers have known for some time that complete online anonymity is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pubrev.2020.101955">increased harmful behavior online</a>.</p>
<p>In deplatforming policymaking, among other considerations, there should be an emphasis on justice, harm reduction and rehabilitation. Policy objectives should be defined transparently and with reasonable expectations in order to avoid some of these negative unintended consequences. </p>
<h2>Yes, but the process needs to be transparent and democratic</h2>
<p><strong>Robert Gehl, associate professor of communication and media studies, Louisiana Tech University</strong></p>
<p>Deplatforming not only works, I believe it needs to be built into the system. Social media should have mechanisms by which racist, fascist, misogynist or transphobic speakers are removed, where misinformation is removed, and where there is no way to pay to have your messages amplified. And the decision to deplatform someone should be decided as close to democratically as is possible, rather than in some closed boardroom or opaque content moderation committee like <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-names-20-people-its-supreme-court-content-moderation-n1201181">Facebook’s “Supreme Court.”</a></p>
<p>In other words, the answer is alternative social media like <a href="https://joinmastodon.org/">Mastodon</a>. As a federated system, Mastodon is specifically designed to give users and administrators the ability to mute, block or even remove not just misbehaving users but entire parts of the network.</p>
<p>For example, despite fears that the alt-right network Gab would somehow take over the Mastodon federation, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/12/20691957/mastodon-decentralized-social-network-gab-migration-fediverse-app-blocking">Mastodon administrators quickly marginalized Gab</a>. The same thing is happening as I write with new racist and misogynistic networks forming to fill the potential void left by Parler. And Mastodon nodes have also prevented spam and advertising from spreading across the network.</p>
<p>Moreover, the decision to block parts of the network aren’t made in secret. They’re done by local administrators, who announce their decisions publicly and are answerable to the members of their node in the network. I’m on <a href="https://scholar.social">scholar.social</a>, an academic-oriented Mastodon node, and if I don’t like a decision the local administrator makes, I can contact the administrator directly and discuss it. There are other distributed social media system, as well, including <a href="https://diasporafoundation.org/">Diaspora</a> and <a href="http://twister.net.co/">Twister</a>.</p>
<p>The danger of mainstream, corporate social media is that it was built to do exactly the opposite of what alternatives like Mastodon do: grow at all costs, including the cost of harming democratic deliberation. It’s not just cute cats that draw attention but conspiracy theories, misinformation and the stoking of bigotry. Corporate social media tolerates these things as long as they’re profitable – and, it turns out, that tolerance has lasted far too long.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Blackburn has received funding from a Facebook Content Policy Research on Social Media award.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert W. Gehl received funding from Fulbright Canada to support his research on alternative social media. He is currently funded by the Louisiana Board of Regents Endowed Chairs for Eminent Scholars program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ugochukwu Etudo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Banning extremists from social media platforms can reduce hate speech, but the deplatforming process has to be handled with care – and it can have unintended consequences.Jeremy Blackburn, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Binghamton University, State University of New YorkRobert W. Gehl, F. Jay Taylor Endowed Research Chair of Communication, Louisiana Tech UniversityUgochukwu Etudo, Assistant Professor of Operations and Information Management, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1530702021-01-12T13:24:14Z2021-01-12T13:24:14ZBig Tech’s rejection of Parler shuts down a site favored by Trump supporters – and used by participants in the US Capitol insurrection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378131/original/file-20210111-15-dmsxn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2688&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parler is similar to Twitter but doesn't control or discourage hate speech or calls to violence.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-illustration-picture-shows-the-social-media-website-news-photo/1225872887?adppopup=true">OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Image</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Early in the morning of Jan. 11, the social media platform Parler went offline after Amazon <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/11/1015995/amazon-has-pulled-parler-offline/">withdrew the platform’s web hosting services</a>. Parler <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/tech/parler-amazon-lawsuit/index.html">sued Amazon</a> in response.</p>
<p>Amazon’s move followed Google and Apple’s <a href="https://www.wsgw.com/google-apple-suspend-parler-for-not-moderating-violent-posts/">banning the Parler app</a> from their app stores. The tech companies cited the platform’s inability or unwillingness to block calls for and threats of violence. Amazon’s move shut the platform down, at least until the company can find an alternative web hosting service.</p>
<p>Parler had a <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/09/parler-jumps-to-no-1-on-app-store-after-facebook-and-twitter-bans/">surge in new users</a> following Twitter’s ban of President Donald Trump on Jan. 8. Since the November election, when it saw a spike in usage, Parler has contributed to the widening gap between the different perceptions of reality held by the polarized public. </p>
<p>Competitor Gab was similarly forced offline after the 2018 mass shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh but it was only temporary. Shooter Robert Bowers had been posting anti-Semitic and violent content on the platform, and the revelation resulted in <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/27/18032930/paypal-banned-gab-following-pittsburgh-shooting">PayPal</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/28/18036520/gab-down-godaddy-domain-blocked">GoDaddy</a> and <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-gab-social-media-white-supremacist-20181029-story.html">Medium</a>’s banning Gab from their services. Gab has since come back online and has <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/gab-fringe-social-network-adds-600000-users-parler-shut-down-1560453">reportedly gained hundreds of thousands of new users</a> since Parler’s shutdown.</p>
<h2>On the rise on the right</h2>
<p>After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Parler caught on among <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/technology/parler-rumble-newsmax.html">right-wing politicians and influencers</a> – people with large online followings – as a social media platform where they could share and promote ideas without worrying about the company blocking or flagging their posts for being dangerous or misleading. However, the website also became a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/right-wing-social-media-finalizes-its-divorce-reality/617177/">haven for far-right extremists and conspiracy theorists</a> who interacted with the mainstream conservatives flocking to the platform.</p>
<p>As the three highest-profile social media companies – YouTube, Facebook and Twitter – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/social-media-election-misinformation/index.html">continued to take action</a> to mitigate the spread of extremism and disinformation, Parler welcomed the ensuing exodus of right-wing users. It exploded in popularity, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/23/parler-conservatives-still-on-twitter/">doubling its members to 10 million</a> during the month of November, and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-01-11/parler-squeezed-as-trump-seeks-new-online-megaphone">claimed 12 million</a> at the time of its shutdown – although that’s still dwarfed by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/02/07/twitter-reveals-its-daily-active-user-numbers-first-time/">Twitter’s roughly 330 million monthly active users</a>.</p>
<p>On mainstream social media, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the presidential election, and theories alleging crimes by the Biden campaign and Democrats are <a href="https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/why-twitter-keeps-flagging-trumps-tweets-for-misinformation">flagged as misinformation</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/11/technology-202-parler-surges-popularity-big-tech-cracks-down-election-disinformation/">On Parler</a>, Trump won in a landslide, only to have his victory stolen by a wide-ranging alliance of evildoers, including Democrats and the so-called “deep state.”</p>
<p>But along with its success came the reality that extremist movements like QAnon and <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec/ctec-publications-0/boogaloo-movement-wants-be-seen-anti-racist">the Boogalooers</a> thrived in the platform’s unregulated chaos.</p>
<h2>Parler’s origins</h2>
<p>Parler was launched in 2018 and found its place as another niche platform catering to right-wing users who ran afoul of content moderation on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. Its user base remained small – fewer than 1 million users – until early 2020. </p>
<p>Other primarily right-wing platforms, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18033006/gab-social-media-anti-semitism-neo-nazis-twitter-facebook">especially Gab</a>, had housed fringe and violent ideologues and groups by the time Parler was launched. These included <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/mb8y3x/the-nazi-free-alternative-to-twitter-is-now-home-to-the-biggest-far-right-social-network">violent far-right militias</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/29/gab-forced-offline-following-anti-semitic-posts-by-pittsburgh-shooter">mass shooter Robert Bowers</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The shooter in the Tree of Life Synagogue massacre in Pittsburgh in 2018 posted hate speech on the alternative social media platform Gab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PittsburghSynagogueShooting/348df415a6ad4e318d58654ae11c19ae/photo?Query=Pittsburgh%20synagogue%20shooting&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1319&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Parler, in contrast, gained a reputation for catering to mainstream conservatives thanks to a handful of high-profile early adopters like <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/28/trump-campaign-twitter-1345357">Brad Parscale, Candace Owens and Sen. Mike Lee</a>. As a result, in 2020 when Twitter began <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/tech/twitter-enforcement-policy/index.html">labeling misleading Trump tweets</a> about possible fraud in absentee and mail-in voting, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/ted-cruz-joins-parler-339811">politicians like Ted Cruz</a> embraced Parler as the next bastion for conservative speech.</p>
<h2>The 2020 election</h2>
<p>In the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, the big social media sites took steps to mitigate election-related extremism and disinformation. Twitter rolled out labels for all mail-in ballot misinformation and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455635/twitter-read-before-you-tweet-article-prompt-rolling-out-globally-soon">put a prompt on tweeted articles</a> to encourage people to read them before retweeting. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-bans-qanon-across-its-platforms-n1242339">Facebook blocked QAnon groups</a> and, later, restricted QAnon-adjacent accounts <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/10/30/qanon-crackdown-facebook-restricts-save-the-children-hashtag/6087740002/">pushing “SaveTheChildren” conspiracy theories</a>. Facebook also began <a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2020/10/removing-holocaust-denial-content/">prohibiting holocaust denial posts</a>. YouTube labeled and blocked advertising for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/tech/twitter-enforcement-policy/index.html">election-related fake information</a>, though it left in place many videos promoting conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>These actions continued in the wake of the election, especially as mainstream conservative politicians and Trump pushed the false claim that Biden and the Democrats committed large-scale voter fraud to steal the election. Consequently, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/14/parler-tiktok-onlyfans-contend-for-facebooks-social-throne.html">millions of users migrated to alternative platforms</a>: Gab, MeWe and, in particular, Parler. </p>
<p>Users flocked there because of the promise of a site that wouldn’t label false information and wouldn’t ban the creation of extremist communities. But they also moved because Republican politicians and well-known elites <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/technology/parler-rumble-newsmax.html">signaled that Parler was the new home</a> for conservative speech. These include commentator Mark Levin and Fox host Sean Hannity.</p>
<h2>Promoting racism, anti-Semitism and violence</h2>
<p>Parler has only two community guidelines: It does not knowingly allow criminal activity, and it does not allow spam or bots on its platform. The lack of guidelines on hate speech has allowed racism and anti-Semitism to flourish on Parler. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec">research center</a> has spent several years building an extensive encyclopedia of far-right terminology and slang, covering niche topics from the spectrum of white supremacist, neo-fascist and anti-state movements. We have studied the ways that far-right language evolves alongside content moderation efforts from mainstream platforms, and how slang and memes are often used to evade regulations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing white supremacist symbols and a holstered pistol points while several people stand behind him waving Confederate flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parler has become a haven for overt white supremacists and anti-Semites.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/member-of-the-ku-klux-klan-shouts-at-counter-protesters-news-photo/810860866?adppopup=true">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have monitored far-right communities on Parler since March and have found frequent use of both obvious white supremacist terms and more implicit, evasive memes and slang. For example, among other explicit white supremacist content, Parler allows usernames referencing the neo-Nazi group Atomwaffen Division’s violently anti-Semitic slogan, posts spreading the theory that Jews are descended from Satan, and hashtags such as “HitlerWasRight.” </p>
<p>In addition, it is easy to find the implicit bigotry and violence that eventually caused Facebook to ban movements like QAnon. For example, QAnon’s version of the <a href="https://www.adl.org/education/resources/glossary-terms/blood-libel">“blood libel” theory</a> – the centuries-old false conspiracy theory the Jewish people murder Christians and use their blood for rituals – has spread widely on the platform. Thousands of posts also use QAnon hashtags and promote the false claim that global elites are literally eating children.</p>
<p>Among the alternative platforms, Parler stands out because white supremacists, QAnon adherents and mainstream conservatives exist in close proximity. This results in comment threads on politicians’ posts that are a melting pot of far-right beliefs, such as a response to Donald Trump Jr.’s unfounded allegations of election crimes that states, “Civil war is the only way to drain the swamp.” </p>
<h2>Behind the scenes</h2>
<p>Parler’s ownership is still kept largely secret. However, the few pieces of information that have come to light make Parler’s spike in popularity even more concerning. </p>
<p>For example, Dan Bongino, the highly popular right-wing commentator who published a book about the “deep state” conspiracy theory and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/technology/dan-bongino-has-no-idea-why-facebook-loves-him.html">frequently publishes unverified information</a>, has at least a small <a href="https://bongino.com/dan-bongino-announces-partnership-with-parler/">ownership stake</a> in the company. CEO John Matze said in a post on Parler that is now unavailable because the site is down that the ownership is composed of himself and “a small group of close friends and employees.” </p>
<p>Notably, conservative billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebekah, are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/parler-funding-mercer/social-media-platform-parler-gets-backing-from-mercer-family-wsj-idUSKBN27V020">investors in the platform</a>. Rebekah Mercer helped co-found it with Matze. The Mercers are well known for their investments in other conservative causes, including Nigel Farage’s Brexit campaign, Breitbart News and Cambridge Analytica. The connection to Cambridge Analytica has, in particular, <a href="https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1328559602942799872?s=20">alarmed experts</a>, who worry that Parler may harvest unnecessary data from unwitting users.</p>
<p>Parler’s privacy policy <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexBNewhouse/status/1329878932292853760">doesn’t put to rest concerns about user privacy</a>, either: The policy says that Parler has permission to collect a vast amount of personal information, and gives its members much less control than mainstream platforms over what that data can be used for.</p>
<h2>Parler’s future</h2>
<p>If the company can find a new web hosting service, Parler’s fate will hinge on what its members do over the next few months. Will the company be able to capitalize on the influx of new users, or will its members slowly trickle back to the larger platforms, particularly amid recriminations for the platform’s role in the U.S. Capitol insurrection? A major factor is how Trump himself reacts, and whether he eventually creates an account on Parler. Prominent right-wing figures, <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/6/26/21304743/donald-trump-twitter-mike-lee-parler-social-media-george-floyd-conservative">including Sen. Lee</a>, have called on him to do so.</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s Politics + Society editors pick need-to-know stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-need-to-know">Sign up for Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<p>Having catered to a right-wing audience and allowed hate speech to thrive on its platform, Parler is also at the whims of its user base. Online extremism and hate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/30/how-online-hate-speech-is-fueling-real-life-violence/">can lead to real-world violence</a> by <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/60/1/93/5537169">legitimizing extreme actions</a>. Parler’s tolerance of hate and bigotry, and its affiliation with violent movements enabled right-wing extremists to rally supporters to go to Washington, D.C., prepared to force Congress to yield to their will, by violence if necessary. Like Gab, Parler is now dealing with the repercussions of members’ having committed acts of violence. </p>
<p>Although it’s hard to know whether Parler will recover and grow in the future, my research suggests that the extremism among its user base will persist for months to come.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/parler-is-bringing-together-mainstream-conservatives-anti-semites-and-white-supremacists-as-the-social-media-platform-attracts-millions-of-trump-supporters-150439">article originally published on Nov. 27, 2020</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153070/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Newhouse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Millions of supporters of Donald Trump flocked to the far-right social media platform, where hate speech and calls for violence thrive. The US Capitol insurrection could be the platform’s undoing.Alex Newhouse, Research Lead, Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism, MiddleburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1504392020-11-27T15:50:22Z2020-11-27T15:50:22ZParler is bringing together mainstream conservatives, anti-Semites and white supremacists as the social media platform attracts millions of Trump supporters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371348/original/file-20201125-17-1w02j4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2694&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parler is similar to Twitter but doesn't control or discourage hate speech or calls to violence.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-illustration-picture-shows-the-social-media-website-news-photo/1225872887?adppopup=true">OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Image</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: An updated version of this article was published on Jan. 12, 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-techs-rejection-of-parler-shuts-down-a-site-favored-by-trump-supporters-and-used-by-participants-in-the-us-capitol-insurrection-153070">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p>Since the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Parler has caught on among <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/technology/parler-rumble-newsmax.html">right-wing politicians and “influencers”</a> – people with large online followings – as a social media platform where they can share and promote ideas without worrying about the company blocking or flagging their posts for being dangerous or misleading. However, the website has become a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/right-wing-social-media-finalizes-its-divorce-reality/617177/">haven for far-right extremists and conspiracy theorists</a> who are now interacting with the mainstream conservatives flocking to the platform.</p>
<p>As the three highest-profile social media companies – YouTube, Facebook and Twitter – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/tech/social-media-election-misinformation/index.html">continue to take action</a> to mitigate the spread of extremism and disinformation, Parler has welcomed the ensuing exodus of right-wing users. It has exploded in popularity, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/23/parler-conservatives-still-on-twitter/">doubling its members to 10 million</a> during the month of November – although it is still dwarfed by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/02/07/twitter-reveals-its-daily-active-user-numbers-first-time/">Twitter’s roughly 330 million monthly active users</a>.</p>
<p>With its newfound success, the site is contributing to the widening gap between the different perceptions of reality held by the polarized public. On mainstream social media, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the presidential election, and theories alleging crimes by the Biden campaign and Democrats are <a href="https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/why-twitter-keeps-flagging-trumps-tweets-for-misinformation">flagged as misinformation</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/11/technology-202-parler-surges-popularity-big-tech-cracks-down-election-disinformation/">On Parler</a>, Donald Trump won in a landslide, only to have his victory stolen by a wide-ranging alliance of evildoers, including Democrats and the so-called “deep state.”</p>
<p>While it’s too early to tell if Parler is here to stay, it has already achieved a reputation and level of engagement that has overtaken other alternative platforms. But along with its success comes the reality that extremist movements like QAnon and <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec/ctec-publications-0/boogaloo-movement-wants-be-seen-anti-racist">the Boogalooers</a> have thrived in the platform’s unregulated chaos.</p>
<h2>Parler’s origins</h2>
<p>Parler was launched in 2018 and found its place as another niche platform catering to right-wing users who ran afoul of content moderation on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. Its user base remained small – fewer than 1 million users – until early 2020. </p>
<p>Other primarily right-wing platforms, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/29/18033006/gab-social-media-anti-semitism-neo-nazis-twitter-facebook">especially Gab</a>, had housed fringe and violent ideologues and groups for much longer than Parler. These included <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/mb8y3x/the-nazi-free-alternative-to-twitter-is-now-home-to-the-biggest-far-right-social-network">violent far-right militias</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/29/gab-forced-offline-following-anti-semitic-posts-by-pittsburgh-shooter">mass shooter Robert Bowers</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371352/original/file-20201125-23-7zqe9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The shooter in the Tree of Life Synagogue massacre in Pittsburgh in 2018 posted hate speech on the alternative social media platform Gab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PittsburghSynagogueShooting/348df415a6ad4e318d58654ae11c19ae/photo?Query=Pittsburgh%20synagogue%20shooting&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1319&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Parler, in contrast, gained a reputation for catering to mainstream conservatives thanks to a handful of high-profile early adopters like <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/28/trump-campaign-twitter-1345357">Brad Parscale, Candace Owens and Sen. Mike Lee</a>. As a result, in 2020 when Twitter began <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/tech/twitter-enforcement-policy/index.html">labeling misleading Trump tweets</a> about possible fraud in absentee and mail-in voting, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/ted-cruz-joins-parler-339811">politicians like Ted Cruz</a> embraced Parler as the next bastion for conservative speech.</p>
<h2>The 2020 election</h2>
<p>In the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, the big social media sites took steps to mitigate election-related extremism and disinformation. Twitter rolled out labels for all mail-in ballot misinformation and <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455635/twitter-read-before-you-tweet-article-prompt-rolling-out-globally-soon">put a prompt on tweeted articles</a> to encourage people to read them before retweeting. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-bans-qanon-across-its-platforms-n1242339">Facebook blocked QAnon groups</a> and, later, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/10/30/qanon-crackdown-facebook-restricts-save-the-children-hashtag/6087740002/">restricted QAnon-adjacent accounts pushing “SaveTheChildren” conspiracy theories</a>. Facebook also began <a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2020/10/removing-holocaust-denial-content/">prohibiting holocaust denial posts</a>. YouTube labeled and blocked advertising for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/tech/twitter-enforcement-policy/index.html">election-related fake information</a>, though it left in place many conspiracy theory-promoting videos. </p>
<p>These actions continued in the wake of the election, especially as mainstream conservative politicians and Trump pushed the false claim that Biden and the Democrats committed large-scale voter fraud to steal the election. Consequently, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/14/parler-tiktok-onlyfans-contend-for-facebooks-social-throne.html">millions of users migrated to alternative platforms</a>: Gab, MeWe and, in particular, Parler. </p>
<p>Users flocked there because of the promise of a site that wouldn’t label false information and wouldn’t ban the creation of extremist communities. But they also moved because Republican politicians and well-known elites <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/technology/parler-rumble-newsmax.html">signaled</a> that Parler was the new home for conservative speech. These include commentator Mark Levin and Fox host Sean Hannity.</p>
<h2>Promoting racism, anti-Semitism and violence</h2>
<p>Parler has only two community guidelines: It does not knowingly allow criminal activity, and it does not allow spam or bots on its platform. The lack of guidelines on hate speech has allowed racism and anti-Semitism to flourish on Parler.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec">research center</a> has spent several years building an extensive encyclopedia of far-right terminology and slang, covering niche topics from the spectrum of white supremacist, neo-fascist and anti-state movements. We have studied the ways that far-right language evolves alongside content moderation efforts from mainstream platforms, and how slang and memes are often used to evade regulations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing white supremacist symbols and a holstered pistol points while several people stand behind him waving Confederate flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371351/original/file-20201125-13-u0dsg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parler has become a haven for overt white supremacists and anti-Semites.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/member-of-the-ku-klux-klan-shouts-at-counter-protesters-news-photo/810860866?adppopup=true">ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have monitored far-right communities on Parler since March and have found frequent use of both obvious white supremacist terms and more implicit, evasive memes and slang. For example, among other explicit white supremacist content, Parler allows usernames referencing the Atomwaffen Division’s violentlty anti-Semitic slogan, posts spreading the theory that Jews are descended from Satan, and hashtags such as “HitlerWasRight.” </p>
<p>In addition, it is easy to find the the implicit bigotry and violence that eventually caused Facebook to ban movements like QAnon. For example, QAnon’s version of the <a href="https://www.adl.org/education/resources/glossary-terms/blood-libel">“blood libel” theory</a> – the centuries-old conspiracy theory the Jewish people murder Christians and use their blood for rituals – has spread widely on the platform. Thousands of posts also use QAnon hashtags and promote the false claim that global elites are literally eating children.</p>
<p>Among the alternative platforms, Parler stands out because white supremacists, QAnon adherents and mainstream conservatives exist in close proximity. This results in comment threads on politicians’ posts that are a melting pot of far-right beliefs, such as a response to Donald Trump Jr.’s unfounded allegations of election crimes that states, “Civil war is the only way to drain the swamp.” </p>
<h2>Behind the scenes</h2>
<p>Parler’s ownership is still kept largely secret. However, the few pieces of information that have come to light make Parler’s spike in popularity even more concerning. </p>
<p>For example, Dan Bongino, the highly popular right-wing commentator who published a book about the “deep state” conspiracy theory and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/technology/dan-bongino-has-no-idea-why-facebook-loves-him.html">frequently publishes unverified information</a>, has at least a small <a href="https://bongino.com/dan-bongino-announces-partnership-with-parler/">ownership stake</a> in the company. <a href="https://parler.com/post/09af514096944fd68168f3bda4f5b564">CEO John Matze has said</a> that the ownership is composed of himself and “a small group of close friends and employees.” </p>
<p>Notably, conservative billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebekah, are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/parler-funding-mercer/social-media-platform-parler-gets-backing-from-mercer-family-wsj-idUSKBN27V020">investors in the platform</a>. Rebekah Mercer helped co-found it with Matze. The Mercers are well known for their investments in other conservative causes, including Nigel Farage’s Brexit campaign, Breitbart News and Cambridge Analytica. The connection to Cambridge Analytica has, in particular, <a href="https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1328559602942799872?s=20">alarmed experts</a>, who worry that Parler may harvest unnecessary data from unwitting users.</p>
<p>Parler’s privacy policy <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexBNewhouse/status/1329878932292853760">doesn’t put to rest concerns about user privacy</a>, either: The policy says that Parler has permission to collect a vast amount of personal information, and gives its members much less control than mainstream platforms over what that data can be used for.</p>
<h2>Parler’s future</h2>
<p>Parler’s fate will hinge on what its members do over the next few months. Will the company be able to capitalize on the influx of new users, or will its members slowly trickle back to the larger platforms? A major factor is how Trump himself reacts, and whether he eventually creates an account on Parler. </p>
<p>Having catered to a right-wing audience and allowed hate speech to thrive on its platform, Parler is also at the whims of its user base. Parler’s main competitor, Gab, similarly attempted to capitalize on concerns about unfair moderation against conservatives. However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/29/gab-forced-offline-following-anti-semitic-posts-by-pittsburgh-shooter">Gab’s expansion came to a halt</a> after Bowers’ mass shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. Bowers had been posting anti-Semitic and violent content on the platform, and the revelation resulted in <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/27/18032930/paypal-banned-gab-following-pittsburgh-shooting">PayPal</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/28/18036520/gab-down-godaddy-domain-blocked">GoDaddy</a> and <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-gab-social-media-white-supremacist-20181029-story.html">Medium</a> banning Gab from their services.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Online extremism and hate <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/30/how-online-hate-speech-is-fueling-real-life-violence/">can lead to real-world violence</a> by <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/60/1/93/5537169">legitimizing extreme actions</a>. Parler’s tolerance of hate, bigotry and affiliation with violent movements opens the possibility that, like Gab, one or more of its members will commit acts of violence. </p>
<p>Although it’s hard to know how Parler will grow in the future, my research suggests that the extremism among its user base will persist for months to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Newhouse receives funding from Spectrum Labs. </span></em></p>Millions of supporters of Donald Trump have flocked to the far-right social media platform Parler, where hate speech thrives.Alex Newhouse, Research Lead, Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism, MiddleburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1486102020-10-30T12:48:29Z2020-10-30T12:48:29ZUS Capitol mob highlights 5 reasons not to underestimate far-right extremists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377833/original/file-20210108-21-1yufnvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C30%2C4992%2C3313&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A man wearing a T-shirt alluding to the QAnon misinformation campaign walks through the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 incursion.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolBreachSocialMedia/7a54ed4854aa450cb08339ae2e2c1ee8/photo">AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of the mob incursion that took over the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, it’s clear that many people are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/politics/trump-election-violence.html">concerned about violence from far-right extremists</a>. But they may not understand the real threat. </p>
<p>The law enforcement community is among those who have failed to understand the true nature and danger of far-right extremists. Over several decades, the FBI and other federal authorities have only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/magazine/FBI-charlottesville-white-nationalism-far-right.html">intermittently paid attention to</a> far-right extremists. In recent years, they have <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-22/the-problem-with-militias-and-the-constitution">again acknowledged</a> the extent of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/politics/white-supremacy-dhs-draft-assessment/index.html">the threats</a> they pose to the country. But it’s not clear how long their attention will last.</p>
<p>Clearly the U.S. Capitol Police underestimated the threat on Jan. 6. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/08/capitol-police-failure-456237">Despite plenty of advance notice and offers of help from other agencies</a>, they were caught totally unprepared for the mob that took over the Capitol.</p>
<p>While researching my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479808014/it-can-happen-here/">It Can Happen Here: White Power and the Rising Threat of Genocide in the U.S.</a>,” I discovered that there are five key mistakes people make when thinking about far-right extremists. These mistakes obscure the extremists’ true danger.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A KKK march in Tennessee in 1986" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365790/original/file-20201027-16-b770at.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Jan. 18, 1986, photo, a KKK group marches in Tennessee to protest the first national observance of Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/KKKProtestsMLKHoliday/68f346ca12664825a70f9c6baa2fcdce/photo">AP Photo/Mark Humphrey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Some have white supremacist views, but others don’t</h2>
<p>When asked to condemn white supremacists and extremists at the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/30/presidential-debate-read-full-transcript-first-debate/3587462001/">first presidential debate</a>, President Donald Trump floundered, then said, “Give me a name.” His Democratic challenger Joe Biden offered, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/30/proudboys1001/">The Proud Boys</a>.”</p>
<p>Not all far-right extremists are militant white supremacists.</p>
<p>White supremacy, the belief in white racial superiority and dominance, is a major theme of many far-right believers. Some, like the Ku Klux Klan and neo-Nazis, are <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/glossary-terms/extreme-right-radical-right-far-right">extremely hardcore hate groups</a>.</p>
<p>Others, who at times identify themselves with the term “<a href="https://www.sapiens.org/language/white-power-dog-whistles/">alt-right</a>,” often <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/alt-right-a-primer-on-the-new-white-supremacy">mix racism, anti-Semitism and claims of white victimization</a> in a less militant way. In addition, there are what some experts have called the “<a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/from-alt-right-to-alt-lite-naming-the-hate">alt-lite</a>,” like the <a href="https://www.adl.org/proudboys">Proud Boys</a>, who are less violent and disavow overt white supremacy even as they promote white power by glorifying white civilization and demonizing nonwhite people including Muslims and many immigrants.</p>
<p>There is another major category of far-right extremists who <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/antigovernment">focus more on opposing the government</a> than they do on racial differences. This so-called “patriot movement” includes tax protesters and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-myths/five-myths-about-militias/2020/09/04/9d7c25e0-ee23-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html">militias</a>, many heavily armed and a portion from <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/">military and law enforcement</a> backgrounds. Some, like the Hawaiian-shirt-wearing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/19/magazine/boogaloo.html">Boogaloos</a>, seek civil war to overthrow what they regard as a corrupt political order. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A boat flies the Gadsden ‘Don't tread on me’ flag and a Three Percenters flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365792/original/file-20201027-18-kez3kw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During an April protest in Seattle, a boat flies the Gadsden ‘Don’t tread on me’ flag and the flag of the Three Percenters right-wing militia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakWashingtonState/e34f7e8fd1864c03a45c23ceea3d0744/photo">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. They live in cities and towns across the nation and even the globe</h2>
<p>Far-right extremists are in communities all across America.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the-ku-klux-klan/2016/03/11/cddfa6f6-e55b-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html">KKK</a>, often thought of as <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/20110228/ku-klux-klan-history-racism">centered in the South</a>, has chapters from coast to coast. The same is true of other far-right extremist groups, as illustrated by the Southern Poverty Law Center’s <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hate-map">Hate Map</a>.</p>
<p>Far-right extremism is also global, a point underscored by the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/26/world/europe/norway-terror-attacks/index.html">2011 massacre in Norway</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/world/australia/christchurch-tarrant-sentencing-explained.html">2019 New Zealand mosque attack</a>, both of which were perpetrated by people claiming to resist “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/opinion/new-zealand-tarrant-white-supremacist-terror.html">white genocide</a>.” The worldwide spread led the <a href="https://www.un.org/sc/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CTED_Trends_Alert_Extreme_Right-Wing_Terrorism.pdf">U.N. to recently issue a global alert</a> about the “growing and increasing transnational threat” of right-wing extremism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person wearing a 'Q' vest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365796/original/file-20201027-22-1chvv7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘collective delusion’ known as QAnon will be around for many years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/QAnon/6f09da76236342f1b998cd548bd0fab0/photo">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Many are well organized, educated and social media savvy</h2>
<p>Far-right extremists include people who write books, wear sport coats and have advanced degrees. For instance, in 1978 a physics professor turned neo-Nazi wrote a book that has been called the “<a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2004/turner-diaries-other-racist-novels-inspire-extremist-violence">bible of the racist right</a>.” Other leaders of the movement have <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/bannon-spencer-trump-alt-right-breitbart-infowars-yale-gottfried-oathkeepers-572585">attended elite universities</a>.</p>
<p>Far-right extremists were early users of the internet and now thrive on social media platforms, which they use to agitate, recruit and organize. The 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville <a href="https://publicintegrity.org/politics/social-media-where-voices-of-hate-find-a-place-to-preach/">revealed how effectively</a> they could reach large groups and mobilize them into action.</p>
<p>Platforms like Facebook and Twitter have recently <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/05/instagram-and-facebook-ban-far-right-extremists/588607/">attempted to ban</a> many of them. But the alleged Michigan kidnappers’ ability to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opinion/facebook-gretchen-whitmer.html">evade restrictions</a> by simply <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/michigan-militant-pages-still-on-facebook">creating new pages</a> and groups has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/09/facebook-rightwing-extremists-michigan-plot-militia-boogaloo">limited the companies’ success</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A German American Bund march in New York City" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365823/original/file-20201027-24-l0vts6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People carrying a Nazi flag march in New York City in 1937.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/cph.3c17148/">New York World-Telegram and the Sun Newspaper Photograph Collection/Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. They were here long before Trump and will remain here long after</h2>
<p>Many people associate far-right extremism with the rise of Trump. It’s true that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/12/us/hate-crimes-fbi-report.html">hate crimes</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/13/case-you-thought-there-couldnt-be-more-bad-news-anti-semitism-is-spiking/">anti-Semitism</a> and the number of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/white-nationalist-hate-groups-southern-poverty-law-center">hate groups</a> have risen sharply since his campaign began in 2015. And the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qanons-growth-mirrors-sharp-spike-extremist-violence-us/story?id=73079916">QAnon movement</a> – called both a “<a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/drumoorhouse/qanon-mass-collective-delusion-buzzfeed-news-copy-desk">collective delusion</a>” and a “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/tech/qanon-europe-cult-intl/index.html">virtual cult</a>” – has gained widespread attention.</p>
<p>But far-right extremists were here long before Trump.</p>
<p>The history of white power extremism dates back to slave patrols and the post-Civil War rise of the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/20110228/ku-klux-klan-history-racism">KKK</a>. In the 1920s, the KKK had <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/03/19/390711598/when-the-ku-klux-klan-was-mainstream">millions</a> of members. The following decade saw the rise of Nazi sympathizers, including 15,000 uniformed “<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/meet-screenwriting-mystic-who-wanted-be-american-fuhrer-180970449/">Silver Shirts</a>” and a 20,000-person <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2019/02/20/695941323/when-nazis-took-manhattan">pro-Nazi rally</a> at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 1939.</p>
<p>While adapting to the times, far-right extremism has <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/the-history-of-white-supremacy-in-america-205171/">continued</a> into the present. It’s not dependent on Trump, and will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/08/white-supremacists-gretchen-whitmer/">remain a threat</a> regardless of his public prominence.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People wearing camouflage and carrying weapons" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365793/original/file-20201027-19-1y2naws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Boogaloo movement, seen here at a New Hampshire demonstration, seek a civil war in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXVirusOutbreakNewHampshire/165d06c2aa5746099e1641d0c1f5e03a/photo">AP Photo/Michael Dwyer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. They pose a widespread and dire threat, with some seeking civil war</h2>
<p>Far-right extremists <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/opinion/trump-proud-boys.html">often appear to strike</a> in spectacular “lone wolf” attacks, like the <a href="https://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry.php?entry=OK026">Oklahoma City federal building bombing in 1995</a>, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/15/us/dylann-roof-trial.html">mass murder at a Charleston church</a> in 2015 and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/us/active-shooter-pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting.html">Pittsburgh synagogue shooting</a> in 2018. But these people are not alone.</p>
<p>Most far-right extremists are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1419554">part of larger extremist communities</a>, communicating by social media and distributing <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/08/04/three-mass-shootings-this-year-began-with-hateful-screed-chan-its-founder-calls-it-terrorist-refuge-plain-sight/">posts</a> and <a href="http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep23577">manifestos</a>.</p>
<p>Their messages speak of fear that one day, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/technology/replacement-theory.html">whites may be outnumbered by nonwhites</a> in the U.S., and the idea that there is a <a href="https://www.sapiens.org/language/white-power-dog-whistles/">Jewish-led plot to destroy the white race</a>. In response, they prepare for a war between whites and nonwhites.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Thinking of these extremists as loners risks missing the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/08/white-supremacists-gretchen-whitmer/">complexity of their networks</a>, which brought as many as 13 alleged plotters together in the planning to kidnap Michigan’s governor.</p>
<p>Together, these misconceptions about far-right extremist individuals and groups can lead Americans to underestimate the <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2020_10_06_homeland-threat-assessment.pdf">dire threat they pose to the public</a>. Understanding them, by contrast, can help people and experts alike address the <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-election-violence-right-wing-atrocities-genocide-by-alex-hinton-2020-10">danger</a>, as the election’s aftermath unfolds.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article originally published Oct. 30, 2020.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C3625%2C2566&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Members of the Proud Boys arrive at an event in Oregon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C3625%2C2566&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365789/original/file-20201027-18-ouujqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the Proud Boys right-wing extremist group arrive at a pro-Donald Trump rally in Oregon in September 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election-2020-Debate-Race/1ceeb96ce01b41e79ded8fd10fbca399/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Selsky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148610/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Hinton receives funding from the New Jersey Center for Gun Violence Research. </span></em></p>Many people are concerned about far-right extremism. But they may not understand the real threat.Alexander Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479752020-10-22T13:16:36Z2020-10-22T13:16:36ZRight-wing extremism: The new wave of global terrorism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364095/original/file-20201018-21-1dfcfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C62%2C4605%2C2840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this April 2020 photo, protesters carry rifles near the steps of the Michigan State Capitol building in Lansing, Mich. A plot to kidnap Michigan’s governor has put a focus on the security of governors in the United States.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In April 2020, the United Nation’s Secretary-General, António Guterres, addressed members of the <a href="https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/">Security Council</a> by warning them that the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061502">could threaten global peace and security</a>. </p>
<p>If the health crisis was not managed effectively, he feared that its negative economic consequences, along with a mismanaged government response, would provide an opportunity for white supremacists, right-wing extremists and others to promote division, social unrest and even violence to achieve their objectives. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seen speaking at a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364399/original/file-20201020-21-1jw14bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was the focus of kidnapping plot by right-wing extremists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michigan Office of the Governor via AP, Pool, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In early October 2020, less than a month before the United States federal election, the FBI thwarted <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/michigan-whitmer-plot-1.5755273">an alleged terrorism plot</a> by right-wing extremists to kidnap the Michigan governor, storm the state capital building and commit acts of violence against law enforcement. </p>
<p>Their aim, according to court documents, was to start a “civil war leading to societal collapse.” To date, <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/10/08/view-mugshots-for-13-people-charged-after-fbi-uncovers-plot-to-kidnap-michigan-gov-whitmer/">14 men have been arrested on charges of terrorism</a> and other related crimes. Several of them are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/08/wolverine-watchmen-michigan-militia/">linked to the Wolverine Watchmen</a>, a militia-type group in Michigan that espouses anti-government and anti-law enforcement views.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1316718199862448129"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/worldwide-threats-to-the-homeland-092420">FBI recently briefed U.S. senators</a> on the evolving concern of domestic violent extremists, groups whose ideological goals to commit violence stem from domestic influences such as social movements like <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-is-metoo-coming-to-my-workplace-eight-things-you-can-do-now-99661">#MeToo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-failure-of-multiculturalism-led-to-the-rise-of-black-lives-matter-144463">Black Lives Matter</a> and government policies. </p>
<p>The composition of many of these organizations are right-wing terror groups whose grievances are rooted in racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, anti-LGBTQ sentiments, Islamophobia and perceptions of government overreach. Given the wide range of grievances, these groups are defined as being complex, with overlapping viewpoints from similarly minded individuals advocating different but related ideologies. </p>
<h2>Toxic masculinity</h2>
<p>Feminist researchers believe the rise of disenfranchised middle-class white males is leading to increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1097184X17706401">toxic masculinity</a> within society, as evidenced by the increased popularity of the so-called <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/anti-feminism-gateway-far-right/595642/">manosphere</a> to share extremist ideas and vent their grievances. Law enforcement agencies are concerned that the manosphere and similar online communities are radicalizing young men to commit violence to achieve their goals.</p>
<p>This concern is valid, with plenty of evidence to support it.</p>
<p>According to the University of Maryland’s <a href="https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_GTD_GlobalTerrorismOverview2019_July2020.pdf">Global Terrorism Database</a>, there were 310 terrorist attacks resulting in 316 deaths (excluding perpetrators) in the United States alone from 2015 to 2019. </p>
<p>Most were right-wing extremists, including white nationalists and other alt-right movement members. This alt-right movement also contains the incel (involuntary celibate) members who are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1751459">a growing threat</a> to women.</p>
<p>But the increase in right-wing terrorism is not just a U.S. problem. The UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Committee says there’s been a <a href="https://www.un.org/sc/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CTED_Trends_Alert_Extreme_Right-Wing_Terrorism.pdf">320 per cent increase in right-wing terrorism globally</a> in the five years prior to 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A short-haired white man in a grey sweatshirt sits in a courtroom dock." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364392/original/file-20201020-17-2wft1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Brenton Harrison Tarrant, 29, sits in the dock in a New Zealand courtroom for sentencing after pleading guilty to 51 counts of murder, 40 counts of attempted murder and one count of terrorism for an attack on a mosque in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(John Kirk-Anderson/Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recent terrorist attacks in <a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-mosque-shootings-must-end-new-zealands-innocence-about-right-wing-terrorism-113655">New Zealand (2019)</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50003759">Germany (2019)</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/world/europe/norway-mosque-attacker-convicted.html">Norway (2019)</a> are indicators of this trend. The Centre for Research on Extremism at the University of Oslo <a href="https://www.sv.uio.no/c-rex/english/topics/online-resources/rtv-dataset/rtv_trend_report_2020.pdf">reports that both Spain and Greece</a> are growing hotbeds for right-wing terrorism and violence. </p>
<p>Canada isn’t immune to these violent extremist ideologies. Many sympathizers to these causes reside in Canada, and as such there is always a risk for attacks. But the Canadian government is taking notice and has listed <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx#60">Combat 18 </a> and <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx#59">Blood & Honour</a> as right-wing terrorist organizations.</p>
<h2>A major global security threat</h2>
<p>Right-wing extremism is of such concern that when the top international security policy-makers met at the <a href="https://securityconference.org/assets/user_upload/MunichSecurityReport2020.pdf">2019 Munich Security Conference</a>, they ranked it among space security, climate security and emerging technologies as the top global security threats. </p>
<p>It would appear as though the world is at the dawn of a new age of terrorism that’s different from before. Famed terrorism researcher David C. Rapoport argued in his influential thesis “The Four Waves of Rebel Terror and September 11” that modern terrorism can be <a href="http://anthropoetics.ucla.edu/ap0801/terror/">categorized into four distinct waves</a>. </p>
<p>The first “Anarchist Wave” began in the 1880s in Russia with the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-16941-2_5">Narodnaya Volya (“The People’s Will”)</a> conducting assassinations of political leaders. It continued until the 1920s, spreading across the Balkans and eventually into the West, influencing the creation of new terror groups within different countries. </p>
<p>The 1920s saw the beginning of the “Anti-Colonial Wave” coming out of the remnants of the First World War, when groups like the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/566849?seq=1">Irish Republican Army (IRA)</a> began using ambush tactics against police and military targets to force political change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Masked men in black walk along a street carrying unfurled flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364398/original/file-20201020-15-eua5c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The IRA’s Derry Brigade in Derry, Ireland, year unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Flickr)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 1960s, the “New Left Wave” was created. This third wave emerged from the perceived oppression of Western countries within the developing world (like Vietnam and the Middle East). Its tactics included plane hijackings, embassy attacks and kidnappings perpetrated by groups like the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/25765949.2018.1534405">Palestine Liberation Organization </a>(PLO). </p>
<p>Finally, the 1990s witnessed the birth of the “Religious Wave” in which terror groups like <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2013.802973">al-Qaida</a> used religious ideology as a justification to overthrow secular governments with martyrdom tactics like suicide bombings. </p>
<p>What all these waves have in common is that they last for a few decades and become infectious over time, spreading across the globe as new groups learn and adopt the successful tactics of previous ones.</p>
<h2>The fifth wave?</h2>
<p>This brings us to today’s right-wing terrorism. </p>
<p>Already observers have signalled the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jihadist-plots-used-be-u-s-europe-s-biggest-terrorist-n1234840">decline of violent Islamic movements</a> and the rise of far-right extremist activities. Is right-wing violent extremism the new fifth wave of modern terrorism? </p>
<p>If so, there’s no doubt the negative societal impacts of COVID-19 will only help accelerate the radicalization of its adherents.</p>
<p>And if the duration of the previous four waves have taught us anything, it’s that this new one could be around for many more years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147975/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is right-wing violent extremism the new fifth wave of modern terrorism? If so, there’s no doubt the impacts of COVID-19 will only help accelerate the radicalization of its adherents.Sean Spence, Doctorate Student - Security Risk Management, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1401232020-06-09T18:01:40Z2020-06-09T18:01:40ZMilitias evaluate beliefs, action as president threatens soldiers in the streets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340087/original/file-20200605-176575-1l9oaev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of militia groups demonstrate in Virginia in January 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-light-foot-militia-from-pennslyvania-organized-other-news-photo/1194947106">Shay Horse/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>So-called “militias” and “patriot groups” have different beliefs and viewpoints, but most of these citizen-focused organizations share a concern about government infringement on individual liberties. </p>
<p>In the wake of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/26/george-floyd-minneapolis-police-officers-fired-after-public-backlash/5263193002/">George Floyd’s death while in police custody</a>, citizens are <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protest-during-a-pandemic-and-still-keep-everyone-safe-from-coronavirus-6-questions-answered-139978">protesting in American streets</a> against police violence. Many protesters are facing off against <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/tear-gas-risks-protests-coronavirus.html">well-armed officers</a> and National Guard troops, with President Donald Trump threatening to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-considering-move-invoke-insurrection-act-n1221326">send in federal troops</a>. </p>
<p>That puts these groups in a curious position.</p>
<p>Their public activity has long championed the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/American-Extremism-History-Politics-and-the-Militia-Movement/Mulloy/p/book/9780415483803">importance of individual constitutional rights</a>, and they believe in the right to use armed resistance against government overreach.</p>
<p>But many of these groups’ members have also been <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/10/if-only-nongun-owners-voted-hrc-would-have-won-48-states.html">supporters of the president</a>, who is now <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/insurrection-act.html">speaking openly</a> of taking the sort of far-reaching government action these groups have long warned against.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340099/original/file-20200605-176571-1czydj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Members of the military wearing U.S. Army Special Forces insignia block protesters near Lafayette Park and the White House on June 3, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-u-s-army-special-forces-and-law-enforcement-news-photo/1217490211">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A unique perspective on the militias</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/98077">research and analysis</a> of militia groups is based on much more than online posts. I spent three years embedded with the militias in Michigan, doing interviews and ethnographic research, and continue to observe and directly ask members about their motivations for different actions. </p>
<p>In the past, I have seen groups like this oppose police brutality, but usually abstractly or by objecting to violent, individual officers – so-called “bad apples” – rather than systemic racism. They say they are law-abiding citizens and don’t typically think about police violence as something likely to affect them personally.</p>
<p>This is the first time I have seen public Facebook pages for several right-wing organizations <a href="https://www.facebook.com/bigigloobois/photos/a.122432899161080/287394125998289/?type=3&eid=ARD1DIRvcxOiSF_2xSqwMfHifpsmyunlOcPC1Mbsi1EkSqxRGr0Ym6cZZTkvXQMtNKjwKBE1JogNIP-5&__tn__=EHH-R">openly encouraging</a> members to support black protesters, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/boogaloo-extremist-protests-invs/index.html">calls to travel long distances</a> to Minneapolis to participate in person.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/339899/original/file-20200604-67347-1vlzqhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A post from the ‘Big Igloo Bois’ Facebook page calls for supporters to travel to Minneapolis to join the protests against police violence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screenshot from Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There used to be two kinds</h2>
<p>Militia researchers tend to see militia groups as one of two types, based on a <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/3692721/to_shake_their_guns_in_the_tyrants_face">distinction identified by historian Robert Churchill</a>. <a href="https://www.michiganadvance.com/2019/06/28/militia-threats-just-paralyzed-oregons-legislature-the-movements-roots-in-michigan-run-deep/">Roughly nine in 10 groups are what he calls Constitutionalist</a>, taking a literal interpretation of the Constitution and saying they want to be prepared to defend themselves against the government, should that government become tyrannical.</p>
<p>The remaining 10% of groups he calls <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/millennialism">Millenarian</a> – a reference to their belief in a range of conspiracy theories including fears of global catastrophe during “Y2K” at the start of this millennium. These groups, influenced by a more threatening view of the world, are more likely to <a href="https://reason.com/2010/05/05/the-myth-of-the-menacing/">engage in violence and to seek out conflict</a>.</p>
<p>In recent months, some militia groups have begun to identify with a different category, one focused on what they call “the boogaloo,” some hoped-for pivotal moment of government overreach where citizens will engage in organized resistance and possibly revolution to take power away from the government.</p>
<p>These people, mostly men, are armed, often dress in Hawaiian shirts and span a broad spectrum of ideas, ranging from a general interest in firearms to <a href="https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/academics/centers-initiatives/ctec/ctec-publications-0/boogaloo-movement-wants-be-seen-anti-racist">openly advocating for civil war</a>. </p>
<p>Militia groups don’t typically include race in their overt ideology, but some white supremacist groups have also adopted the “boogaloo” outlook and sometimes attend the same rallies as they advocate for a <a href="https://www.adl.org/blog/the-boogaloo-extremists-new-slang-term-for-a-coming-civil-war">race war or an all-white nation</a>.</p>
<h2>President Trump and the 1807 Insurrection Act</h2>
<p>This new focus on “the boogaloo” became clear on June 1, when President Trump indicated he might invoke the <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/fires-burn-capital-another-round-violent-george-floyd-protests/wOD3akX8YQEyBCCqcLkhNK/">1807 Insurrection Act</a> to use federal military forces against civilians inside the U.S. </p>
<p>That threat would seem to line up very closely with what Constitutionalists say they fear – a forceful expansion of government power against its people. But most militia groups have been silent. To date, only a few have made any sort of public statement.</p>
<p>I’ve been asking movement leaders what is going on behind the scenes and have started a survey of some of the larger groups’ members to try to understand this apparent contradiction. The groups are actively discussing among themselves what to do, in comments on Facebook groups and other websites. </p>
<h2>A new divide</h2>
<p>Some militia members from both Constitutionalist and Millenarian members take a position they call “back the boog” – meaning they believe it is important to capitalize on this moment to resist or punish excessive police power. </p>
<p>One post called attention to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/04/asheville-police-destroy-medic-area-mayor-calls-actions-senseless/3148803001/">Asheville, North Carolina police destroying a volunteer-run medical station</a> for treating injured protesters. The poster suggested distracting police by having militia members “Set up fake medical supplies […] have bottles filled with flammable liquids and other solvents that react … watch as hilarity ensues.” </p>
<p>Some may want to go farther, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/boogaloo-extremist-protests-invs/index.html">to incite violence or even start a civil war</a>. Another post tried to stir people into actively attacking police, saying “If anybody really wants to boog rather than larp, let me know.” But this is not the majority outlook in the public postings. </p>
<p>Others “back the blue,” generally supporting the police and objecting to riots and looting as destructive of the American dream of working hard and being free to enjoy the rewards of that labor. They also imagine their livelihoods or personal safety at risk from looters.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340103/original/file-20200605-176554-1o5wy5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">What constitutes insurrection?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstrator-protests-as-police-forces-hold-a-line-near-news-photo/1217490213?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Concerned about self-contradiction</h2>
<p>Both factions, especially those who “back the blue,” report believing that the damage to property is being coordinated by antifa, a loose-knit antifascist group that encourages people to oppose, sometimes violently, white supremacist demonstrations. There is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-no-intelligence-antifa-weekend-violence-george-floyd-protests-2020-6">little evidence to support that claim</a>. </p>
<p>However, many militia members have long believed that antifa is an organized terrorist organization that threatens the First Amendment through frequent violence to suppress public speech they disagree with. This belief has likely been fostered by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/twitter-takes-down-washington-protest-disinformation-bot-behavior-n1221456">social media bots</a> possibly run by overt white supremacists and, most recently, the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/antifa-group-trump-designate-terrorist-organization/story?id=71045287">president himself</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, these followers tell me they worry that open criticism of the president would amount to supporting antifa.</p>
<p>One leader in the movement told me that the “back the blue” faction believes military action to suppress a domestic coup would be a legitimate use of the Insurrection Act. But they also believe that using the act to suppress completely peaceful protesters would be a clear government overreach, because then that power could be directed against anyone. This leader told me military force against protesters “is not acceptable, even if it seems necessary at this moment, because tomorrow, WE will be the protesters, the dissidents.”</p>
<p>He said there is no agreement across groups on how to categorize the range of actions on the spectrum between coup and peaceful protest – for instance, whether a riot qualifies as an insurrection that could justify the use of federal troops.</p>
<h2>Putting race aside?</h2>
<p>Both groups’ discussions tend to ignore the fact that the Insurrection Act has historically been used specifically to <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/insurrection-act-invoked/story?id=71020988">quell black people fighting for justice</a>. “Back the boog” affiliates generally insist that race does not matter, and that police violence is a danger to all citizens. </p>
<p>“Back the blue” believers do not address race overtly. However, as part of blaming antifa for violence, they sometimes seem to imply that black people are unwittingly drawn into looting and rioting. Those comments reflect <a href="https://www.opportunityagenda.org/explore/resources-publications/review-public-opinion-research-related-black-male-achievement/perceptions-of-and-by-black-men">racist stereotypes of black people as inherently less intelligent</a> and prone to committing crimes.</p>
<p>There is no monolithic militia with a single ideological perspective, and groups are still figuring out their own responses to these ongoing events. Dismissing their current silence as merely hypocritical or <a href="https://www.10tv.com/article/michigan-governor-says-some-worst-racism-fueled-protests-over-coronavirus-response-2020-may">racist</a> misses nuance that will be crucial for understanding potential threats and other outcomes from this shift.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Cooter is a prior National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship recipient. </span></em></p>Many militia members have championed the importance of individual rights, but have also backed a president who is now threatening the kind of crackdown they fear.Amy Cooter, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1400462020-06-05T12:08:38Z2020-06-05T12:08:38ZWhy are white supremacists protesting the deaths of black people?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339627/original/file-20200603-130923-2jmxf4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C44%2C5982%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A member of the far-right Boogaloo Bois group walks next to protestors in Charlotte, N.C., on May 29, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/member-of-the-far-right-militia-boogaloo-bois-walks-next-to-news-photo/1216297279">Logan Cyrus/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As protests about police violence among black people continue and become more widespread across the U.S., certain individuals and groups have begun to stand out – including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/01/dhs-domestic-terrorists-protest-294342">anarchists, agitators and members of a variety of far-right groups</a>. </p>
<p>With the country’s <a href="https://lynchinginamerica.eji.org/">long history of racist killings</a>, it may be confusing to think that racists and white supremacists are among those objecting to the killing of people of color.</p>
<p>But people affiliated with <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/y3zmj5/the-boogaloo-bois-are-bringing-their-ar-15s-and-civil-war-ideology-to-the-lockdown-protests">far-right groups</a> aren’t trying to be part of the overall protest movement. Having researched these groups, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fjys1XAAAAAJ&hl=en">we</a> think it’s likely that they are attempting to hijack the event for their own purposes.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cLpO6QwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researchers</a> of <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300453/alt-right-gangs">street gangs and far-right groups</a>, we see that in this case, they want to <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/pkyb9b/far-right-extremists-are-hoping-to-turn-the-george-floyd-protests-into-a-new-civil-war">stoke a civil war between the races</a> – one they think they can win. By antagonizing police, destroying property, or intimidating the public by adopting military gear – including weapons – these groups are attempting to instigate violence between the police, protesters and the public. Rousting law enforcement to violently retaliate against black people en masse is the first step.</p>
<h2>Instigating civil war</h2>
<p>The far-right is not unified by a strict ideology. It is a broad movement with various factions vying for greater amounts of attention and influence. </p>
<p>In spite of this tension, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-nationalist-groups-are-really-street-gangs-and-law-enforcement-needs-to-treat-them-that-way-107691">research shows</a> that many share the conspiracy belief that Western governments are corrupt and <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674286078">controlled by the New World Order, a cabal of wealthy Jewish elites</a>. To them, wealthy Jewish investor and democracy advocate <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/2/15946556/antisemitism-enlightenment-george-soros-conspiracy-theory-globalist">George Soros is the puppet master</a> of the world economy. </p>
<p>William Luther Pierce’s 1978 novel “The Turner Diaries,” which has come to be known as “<a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2004/turner-diaries-other-racist-novels-inspire-extremist-violence">the bible of the racist right</a>,” lays out a plan to instigate a race war and bring about the federal government’s collapse. The book has inspired violence from the far-right, most notably the 1995 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/Timothy-McVeigh-Oklahoma-City-Bombing-Coronavirus.html">bombing at the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City</a>.</p>
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<p>“<a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/11/11/20882005/accelerationism-white-supremacy-christchurch">Accelerationism</a>” – the idea that inducing chaos, provoking law enforcement, and promoting political tension will hasten the collapse of Western government – has taken root among far-right groups. One such group, the “<a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/pkyb9b/far-right-extremists-are-hoping-to-turn-the-george-floyd-protests-into-a-new-civil-war">Boogaloo Bois</a>,” identified by their penchant for wearing Hawaiian shirts, has been observed at protests in <a href="https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/05/27/the-boogaloo-movement-is-not-what-you-think/">Minnesota</a>, <a href="https://www.adl.org/blog/extremists-weigh-in-on-nationwide-protests">Florida</a>, <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/70497/far-right-infiltrators-and-agitators-in-george-floyd-protests-indicators-of-white-supremacists/">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/mmedinanews/status/1266845792184254464?s=21">Texas</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/grimkim/status/1266806579724193792?s=21">Pennsylvania</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremyjojola/status/1267602083508703233">Colorado</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/RoseCityAntifa/status/1266930791629467650">Oregon</a>. As with any far-right movement, “Boogaloo Bois” groups are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/us/boogaloo-extremist-protests-invs/index.html">rather unstructured and have varied beliefs</a>, lacking any hierarchical organization.</p>
<p>In Las Vegas, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/three-men-connected-boogaloo-movement-tried-provoke-violence-protests-feds-n1224231">three “Boogaloo Bois”</a> were arrested with firearms and a plan to incite violence during George Floyd protests. <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/m7jvq8/white-supremacist-group-identity-evropa-posed-as-antifa-on-twitter-and-called-for-looting-and-violence">Social media posts</a> and <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/they-want-their-civil-war-far-right-boogaloo-militants-embedded-themselves-in-the-george-floyd-protests-in-minneapolis/">online chat groups</a> have also shown them attempting to infiltrate other protests across the country.</p>
<p>Joining the crowds provides these groups <a href="https://apnews.com/6223153093f08fa910c4ab445771b773">an opportunity to discredit protesters</a> by inciting looting, rioting, violence and vandalism – which they hope will spark like-minded white Americans to resist the civil disobedience of protesters. Already, there are <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/blm-rallies-across-america-are-being-menaced-by-armed-counterprotesters">roving bands of armed white counterprotesters</a> at protests across America. </p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5dzbv3/neo-nazi-accelerationists-calling-for-terror-attacks-during-social-unrest">far-right extremists are talking on social media</a> about the protests requiring a lot of police attention and see an opportunity to engage in targeted terror attacks. Their overall intention is the same: fanning flames to burn down the federal government, making room for them to establish a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/567137/proud-boys-and-the-white-ethnostate-by-alexandra-minna-stern/">whites-only country</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>They’re not really protesting – they’re hoping to find an opportunity to spark violence and trigger a war between black and white Americans.Matthew Valasik, Associate Professor of Sociology, Louisiana State University Shannon Reid, Associate Professor, University of North Carolina – CharlotteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1330502020-03-10T18:01:15Z2020-03-10T18:01:15ZFar-right extremists still threaten New Zealand, a year on from the Christchurch attacks<p>In the hours after the Christchurch mosque attacks on March 15 last year, <a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-mosque-shootings-must-end-new-zealands-innocence-about-right-wing-terrorism-113655">I wrote</a> that I hoped New Zealand would finally stop believing it was immune to far-right extremist violence. A year on, I’m not sure enough has changed.</p>
<p>I’ve researched far-right extremism for decades – and I would argue it remains a high-level threat in New Zealand, not just <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/19/fastest-growing-uk-terrorist-threat-is-from-far-right-say-police">overseas</a>. </p>
<p>My assessment is that there are about 60 to 70 groups and somewhere between 150 and 300 core right-wing activists in New Zealand. </p>
<p>This sounds modest alongside the estimated 12,000 to 13,000 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/world/europe/germany-shooting-terrorism.html">violent far-right activists in Germany</a>. But proportionate to population size, the numbers are similar for both countries. And it only takes one activist to act out his extremism.</p>
<p>In the past year, there has certainly been greater investment by New Zealand’s security agencies in monitoring extremist groups and activists. There has been more media coverage. The government moved quickly to ban assault weapons and further <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/get-involved/topics/all-current-topics/bill-proposes-further-tightening-of-gun-controls/">controls on the use and possession of arms are underway</a>. Other initiatives, including a <a href="https://christchurchattack.royalcommission.nz/">royal commission of inquiry</a>, are pending. </p>
<p>But I also feel there is a tendency to see the Christchurch attacks, which killed 51 people, as a one-off or an aberration – rather than something we still need to guard against. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-mosque-shootings-must-end-new-zealands-innocence-about-right-wing-terrorism-113655">Christchurch mosque shootings must end New Zealand's innocence about right-wing terrorism</a>
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<h2>New Zealand’s home-grown extremists</h2>
<p>New Zealanders should now be more aware than a year ago of the presence of local right-wing extremists. There has been plenty to remind them.</p>
<p>In June last year, Philip Arps, who has been involved in white supremacist activities in Christchurch for some time, was sentenced to 21 months in jail for sharing video of the Christchurch shootings. I am puzzled by the limited public awareness that the imagery on the side of his van – a <a href="https://www.adl.org/education/references/hate-symbols/1488">reference to 14/88</a> and Nazi signage – was a clear indicator of his extremist views. </p>
<p>Arps was <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/01/white-supremacist-philip-arps-released-from-prison-banned-from-contact-with-muslims.html">released early in January this year</a> under strict conditions, including a GPS monitor that alerts authorities if he goes near a mosque. </p>
<p>Even though the white nationalist group Dominion Movement folded after the mosque attacks, one of its leaders, a soldier in the New Zealand defence force, was arrested in December last year for “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/119627639/whats-public-and-whats-secret-in-the-case-of-the-soldier-arrested-for-breaching-national-security?m=m">accessing a computer for a dishonest purpose</a>” and disclosing information that “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118942709/soldier-with-farright-links-accused-of-disclosing-military-information">prejudiced the security and defence of New Zealand</a>”. He had been active since 2011 on the neo-Nazi site Stormfront and attended a free speech rally in Wellington in 2018 along with another extreme-right activist.</p>
<p>He also appears to be a member of Wargus Christi, a group formed in September last year by a self-described neo-Nazi, Daniel Waring. It is a “martial-monastic” group of body builders who are homophobic, anti-Semitic and Islamaphobic.</p>
<p>Another group new to New Zealand’s extreme right is <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/09/1072195/action-zealandia-member-planned-terror-cell">Action Zealandia</a>. Their slogan is “building a community for European New Zealanders”. Apart from their online presence, their main public activity is placing stickers in public spaces highlighting their ultra-nationalism.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-overhauling-nzs-gun-and-terrorism-laws-alone-cant-stop-terrorist-attacks-113706">Why overhauling NZ's gun and terrorism laws alone can't stop terrorist attacks</a>
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<h2>Confronting NZ’s place in a global web of hate</h2>
<p>Information from agencies such as the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/">Southern Poverty Law Center</a> or the <a href="https://www.adl.org/">Anti-Defamation League</a> in the US shows a significant <a href="https://www.adl.org/blog/white-supremacists-double-down-on-propaganda-in-2019">increase in extremist activity</a> since 2016. </p>
<p>What has been most concerning is that the rise in online hate speech has real-world implications. <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-10-online-speech-crimes-minorities.html">Research</a> shows an increase in online hate speech will be accompanied by hate crimes in a region or locality. Internet outages reduce both.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-from-the-christchurch-terror-attacks-nz-intelligence-records-a-surge-in-reports-131895">A year from the Christchurch terror attacks, NZ intelligence records a surge in reports</a>
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<p>In the aftermath of the Christchurch attacks, it was good to see <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-bans-military-style-semi-automatics-and-assault-rifles">rapid action on limiting automatic weapons</a>. And the <a href="https://www.christchurchcall.com/">Christchurch Call</a> – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-christchurch-call-is-just-a-start-now-we-need-to-push-for-systemic-change-117259">initiative</a> to stop people using social media to promote terrorism – certainly helped put pressure on online platforms such as Facebook to monitor and remove objectionable material.</p>
<p>But we could move to ban right-wing organisations and put restrictions on individuals who <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/24/uk-ban-neo-nazi-sonnenkrieg-division-terrorist-group">breach agreed thresholds of speech and action</a>. We still do not have clear guidelines for what constitutes hate speech, apart from <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1993/0082/latest/DLM304643.html">s61 of the Human Rights Act</a> and the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2015/0063/latest/whole.html">Harmful Digital Communications Act</a>.</p>
<p>I do worry that we don’t have sufficient resources and skills locally to adequately monitor what is happening, even if agencies have been working together more closely internationally.</p>
<p>It would be good to know more from the agencies that have oversight. The New Zealand Security and Intelligence Service (<a href="https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/">NZSIS</a>) refers to the threat value, but often in relation to international threats. </p>
<p>More openness about their concerns and the extent of local groups and activists would help: for instance, something like <a href="https://tellmamauk.org/">Tell MAMA</a> in the UK or the reports other security agencies provide. </p>
<p>It was refreshing to see the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (<a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/">ASIO</a>) provide its <a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment.html">annual threat assessment</a> in February this year. It assessed the terrorist threat in Australia as probable but the possibility of a right-wing extremist attack as low in terms of capability.</p>
<p>But it acknowledged that advances in technology are “outstripping our technical capabilities”, which must be a concern everywhere.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asio-chiefs-assessment-shows-the-need-to-do-more-and-better-to-prevent-terrorism-132447">ASIO chief's assessment shows the need to do more, and better, to prevent terrorism</a>
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<p>One thing is certain. The Christchurch mosque attacks have become part of the lexicon whenever white supremacist terrorism is discussed. The events on March 15 have become something of a guide – and, unfortunately, an inspiration to other right-wing terrorists. </p>
<p>It is challenging that many of these extremists, the alleged Christchurch gunman included, are self-radicalised, ideologically motivated, and with a small or no digital footprint. Often there is no prior warning of an attack. </p>
<p>One year on from the attacks, my report card for New Zealand is that we’ve made progress on greater awareness and action. But we still need to do more, including on keeping the public better informed that the problem hasn’t gone away. Just ask those <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/403884/new-register-for-islamophobic-and-racist-incidents-created">who continue to be targeted</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Spoonley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>My assessment is that there are about 150 to 300 core right-wing activists in New Zealand. This might sound modest – but proportionate to population, it’s similar to extremist numbers in Germany.Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324472020-02-26T02:31:33Z2020-02-26T02:31:33ZASIO chief’s assessment shows the need to do more, and better, to prevent terrorism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317234/original/file-20200225-24651-3y55yr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren England</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Words matter. Especially when you are the director-general of security and head of ASIO. Barely three months into the post, and delivering his first <a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment.html">ASIO Annual Threat Assessment</a>, Mike Burgess spoke with evident care and precision, promising to be “as open and frank with you as I can be about what we do and why we do it”.</p>
<p>Burgess spoke about the <a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment.html">two key threats</a> ASIO is dealing with: terrorism and foreign interference. “Violent Islamic extremism of the type embodied by the Islamic State and al Qaeda and their offshoots will remain our first concern,” he said, before adding, “but we are also seeing other actors operating in the terrorism arena.” </p>
<p>Burgess continued:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Intolerance based on race, gender and identity, and the extreme political views that intolerance inspires, is on the rise across the Western world in particular. Right-wing extremism has been in ASIO’s sights for some time, but obviously this threat came into sharp, terrible focus last year in New Zealand.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-attacks-are-a-stark-warning-of-toxic-political-environment-that-allows-hate-to-flourish-113662">Christchurch attacks are a stark warning of toxic political environment that allows hate to flourish</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The focus on right-wing extremism is not unprecedented, but Burgess elevated it to a level of priority not seen in recent history. The attack in Christchurch in March 2019, in which an Australian-born right-wing terrorist shot dead 51 people in a cold-blooded attack and live-streamed it to a global audience, no doubt precipitated a rethink of the threat by the security community. ASIO’s assessment is clear: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>In Australia, the extreme right-wing threat is real and it is growing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lest there be any doubt about the nature of the extremist ideology involved, Burgess added: “In suburbs around Australia, small cells regularly meet to salute Nazi flags, inspect weapons, train in combat and share their hateful ideology.” </p>
<p>Just weeks ago, he explained, an Australian was “stopped from leaving the country to fight with an extreme right-wing group on a foreign battlefield”. Australians, he said, are actively participating in “extreme right-wing online forums such as The Base”.</p>
<p>Burgess began his remarks by noting that terrorism was an enduring threat and was not diminishing. “The number of terrorism leads we are investigating right now has doubled since this time last year.”</p>
<p>For the director-general of security to pair the kind of terrorism inspired by Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda with right-wing extremism is a remarkable development. It reflects a convergence between Australia and the US on both threat and perception with respect to terrorism. This convergence is important because RWE is far greater problem <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/us/domestic-terrorism-laws.html">in the US</a> than it is in Australia, ranking “high” where al-Qaeda and IS rank “low” in recent assessments.
It also brings Australia into alignment with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/19/fastest-growing-uk-terrorist-threat-is-from-far-right-say-police">the UK</a> and Europe. </p>
<h2>Is there a threat from ‘left-wing lunatics’?</h2>
<p>In unscripted remarks, the Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton was not nearly as careful with his language. He was later <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/25/dutton-says-leftwing-lunatics-must-be-dealt-with-as-asio-warns-of-far-right-threat">forced to walk back</a> a loose “both sides” reference to “left-wing lunatics” and terrorism, by explaining that by “left-wing” he meant Islamic extremists.</p>
<p>While it is easy to make fun of the minister’s unfortunate choice of words, he was not entirely wrong in suggesting we shouldn’t care “where people are on the spectrum” of left and right, because “if they pose a threat to our country and want to do harm to Australians then they are in our sights”. Certainly, when it manifests, violent left-wing extremism is no less awful than violent right-wing extremism. </p>
<p>Ever since modern terrorism emerged in Europe in the mid-19th century, left-wing extremism has been a significant threat. This has ranged from the 19th-century anarchists through to the ethno-nationalist liberation movements of the mid-20th century. It also includes the Marxist-Leninist groups of the 1970s and 1980s such as the West German Red Army Faction, also known also as the Baader-Meinhof Gang, and Italy’s Red Brigades. </p>
<p>Outside Europe, groups such as the Japanese Red Army, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka, the Nicaraguan Sandinistas, the Peruvian Shining Path and the Colombian 19th of April Movement have been responsible for the deaths of countless thousands of people. </p>
<p>Charismatic left-wing terrorists such as the Venezuelan-born Ramirez Sanchez, aka “Carlos the Jackal”, like the Argentine Ernesto “Che” Guevara before him, epitomised the murderously delusional ethos of the “professional revolutionary”.</p>
<p>But by the 1990s these groups had all but disappeared (although violent left-wing extremism lives on in Colombia’s FARC narco-terrorists and in the Maoist Naxalite insurgents of India’s eastern seaboard).</p>
<p>Doubtless it was these groups the minister had in mind. Judging from earlier comments, perhaps he also thought <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/peter-dutton-says-climate-activists-are-thumbing-their-nose-at-australia">some climate change civil disobedience</a> protest groups in Australia, such as Extinction Rebellion, might eventually come to track in the same direction.</p>
<p>However, Burgess made no mention whatsoever of left-wing terrorism. This is likely because ASIO currently finds no evidence of a threat emerging from this quarter. </p>
<p>In his very first public statement as director-general, <a href="https://www.asio.gov.au/sites/default/files/Statement%20from%20Director-General%20of%20Security,%20Mike%20Burgess%20-%2017%20October%202019.pdf">Burgess pointed out</a> that the rising threats of terrorism, espionage and foreign interference meant “circumstances are stretching current resources”.</p>
<h2>How we can combat terrorism in Australia</h2>
<p>Left-wing terrorism may yet one day present a threat to Australia, but it does not do so now and is clearly not a current priority for ASIO. The intelligence agency has its work cut out tracking and countering the involvement of Australians in transnational online forums and networks promoting “extremist right-wing ideologies”.</p>
<p>The threat Burgess outlined is chilling, but it is nevertheless reassuring to know ASIO and the Australian security community are focusing so sharply on it. </p>
<p>But, as with the enduring threat posed by groups like al-Qaeda and IS, the security agencies alone cannot provide the full answer. Prevention is always better than cure. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-enacted-82-anti-terror-laws-since-2001-but-tough-laws-alone-cant-eliminate-terrorism-123521">Australia has enacted 82 anti-terror laws since 2001. But tough laws alone can't eliminate terrorism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Secretive security agencies can warn of the threat and disrupt plots, but the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/white-supremacist-violence-terrorism/606964/">larger work of prevention</a> is the duty of Australian society as a whole. Decisive and principled political leadership is required to close down the spaces in which right-wing extremist narratives <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/muslims-extremism-women-far-right-tommy-robinson-rape-a9143671.html">are being freely promoted</a>, inciting hatred and smoothing the way for recruiters. </p>
<p>Such dangerous narratives have found <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/15/right-wing-australian-senator-blames-immigration-new-zealand-mosque-attacks/">far freer expression in Australian politics</a> than is good or wise. </p>
<p>Political and community leadership at all levels needs to address the intolerant toxic narrative of white supremacist bigotry and demonising. This threat has accelerated as <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615155/the-manosphere-is-getting-more-toxic-as-angry-men-join-the-incels/?utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social_share&utm_content=2020-02-25">toxic masculinity and right-wing extremism have converged</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/right-wing-extremism-has-a-long-history-in-australia-113842">Right-wing extremism has a long history in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While the police and security agencies are tasked with defending Australia against threats such as terrorism, <a href="https://www.csis.org/ground-combatting-rise-right-wing-terror">more is required</a> than what they alone can deliver. The best defence is multilayered across the whole of society. It begins with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/top-uk-cop-urges-australia-to-invest-in-terror-prevention/10923654">being clear in identifying the threat</a> and pre-emptively responding to it. </p>
<p>Closing down the opportunity spaces for right-wing extremism is vitally important, but so too is developing positive social alternatives to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190501-how-do-you-prevent-extremism">address the legitimate human need</a> to belong and be accepted, which is felt so deeply by the young people that right-wing extremist recruiters are primarily targeting. </p>
<p>Burgess is right in addressing the threat posed by online forums and networks. We certainly need to do all we can to limit their influence and opportunity to do harm. But we need to do more than that. We need to be operating where they are operating and offering something better than what they are offering.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132447/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Barton is engaged in a range of projects working to understand and counter violent extremism in Australia and in Southeast Asia that are funded by the Australian government.</span></em></p>Australia is under increasing threat from right-wing terrorism, and to properly combat it we need to understand it and offer better alternatives for those drawn to it.Greg Barton, Chair in Global Islamic Politics, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280752019-12-15T13:34:19Z2019-12-15T13:34:19ZTrump will cling to power — and Republicans will cling to him<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306706/original/file-20191212-85412-n4zc49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=278%2C48%2C2692%2C1436&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon. And that's why he'll never willingly leave office in 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(The Associated Press)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon.</p>
<p>Nixon was a bully, a cynic and a crook who did all kinds of damage to American politics and society, <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/vietnamization">not to mention to Cambodia and Vietnam</a>, too. And yet he had a sense of obligation to his office — and to the Republican Party, a venerable institution that <a href="https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/free-soil-free-labor-free-men-9780195094978?cc=ca&lang=en&">got its start</a> in the 1850s by opposing the spread of slavery.</p>
<p>And so in August 1974, after the congressional leadership of the Republican Party <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/gop-unlikely-reprise-role-it-played-nixons-1974-exit">told him</a> that they wouldn’t stand for the Watergate cover-up, Nixon got on a helicopter and flew out of history.</p>
<p>This is not how the Trump era will end.</p>
<h2>Moving right</h2>
<p>The year 1977 marks a watershed in the modern history of the American right, a moment of departure from the kind of Republican Party that eventually rejected Nixon.</p>
<p>That year, the Cato Institution was formed in Washington to peddle <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-conservatives-misread-and-misuse-milton-friedman/2012/07/27/gJQAcrISEX_story.html">free-market fundamentalism</a> as the answer to America’s ills. Also that year, a group of fundamentalist Christians built <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/us/focus-on-the-family-transforms-its-message.html">Focus on the Family</a> to uphold traditional patriarchy as God’s command. And a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-nras-true-believers-converted-a-marksmanship-group-into-a-mighty-gun-lobby/2013/01/12/51c62288-59b9-11e2-88d0-c4cf65c3ad15_story.html">fringe group</a> within the National Rifle Association turned what had been an apolitical hunters’ organization into a hyper-aggressive lobbying group for arms manufacturers and their most angry customers.</p>
<p>These groups shared a <a href="https://www.indiebound.org/book/9780520305557">grand narrative</a> of America, in which rugged individualists and virtuous families built the country with Bibles in one hand and guns in the other. The protagonists in this story were of course white, just like the great majority of the people in these movements. </p>
<h2>From Reagan to Bush</h2>
<p>During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan drew these forces into an upbeat nationalism. America’s mission, he told the faithful, was to defeat godless Communism at home and abroad. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306707/original/file-20191212-85397-8sjati.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reagan practised an upbeat form of conservatism. He’s seen here in the Oval Office in 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Scott Stewart)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The subsequent collapse of the Soviet empire vindicated his take-no-prisoners approach — and the more extreme voices on the right, whose “think tanks” and pressure groups now formed a vast echo chamber impervious to political debate.</p>
<p>When Bill Clinton came to office in 1992, he hoped to appeal to centrist Republicans as a pro-business “New Democrat” from a southern state. Instead, a new wave of right-wing figures in Congress and beyond accused the Democrats <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/23/us/1992-campaign-republicans-bush-georgia-questions-clinton-s-vision-family.html">of all kinds of perversions</a> and impeached Clinton over his unseemly sex life, resulting in some bizarre political theatre. </p>
<p>Although these tactics narrowed the Republicans’ appeal, the party returned to the White House when George W. Bush squeaked out an electoral victory in early 2001. This kept the extremists within the party, for the moment.</p>
<h2>Off the rails</h2>
<p>In the wake of terrorist attacks later that year, Bush briefly rose to Reaganesque stature with the economic and religious right, even though <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/13/politics/bush-rebukes-lott-over-remarks-on-thurmond.html">he scolded and disappointed white nationalists</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306708/original/file-20191212-85417-13ff5h3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bush, with Rudy Giuliani, then the mayor of New York City and now embroiled himself in the Trump impeachment scandal, is seen at Ground Zero of the 9-11 attacks in September 2001.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Doug Mills)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But while Reagan’s crusade against Communism had ended in global victory, Bush’s war in Iraq ground <a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/SRE.htm">to a bloody stalemate</a>. And as the recession of 2008 cast a dreary pall over America, Barack Obama rose to power <a href="https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/episode/obama-legacy-hope-and-change-achievements-and-setbacks">by promising hope and change</a>. </p>
<p>Although he, too, was a New Democrat in economic terms — his signature health-care law stemmed <a href="https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2017/02/looking-at-the-conservative-heritage-of-some-core-aca-features/">in part</a> from another conservative think tank — Obama embodied the liberal vision of a multi-racial nation within a complicated world.</p>
<p>As president, he described his views on touchstone issues such as gay marriage <a href="https://time.com/3816952/obama-gay-lesbian-transgender-lgbt-rights/">as “evolving”</a> and sought middle grounds with old enemies like Cuba and Iran.</p>
<p>In response, the far right took over the Republican Party, using not only think tanks and radio shows but also alt-right websites and chat rooms that became safe spaces for virulent racism.</p>
<h2>Moderates were targeted</h2>
<p>Extremists in the so-called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tea-Party-movement">Tea Party movement</a>, which <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-tea-party-paved-the-way-for-donald-trump/">paved the way</a> for today’s Make America Great Again supporters, targeted moderate Republicans while Fox News hosts and “shock jocks” called Obama a Marxist and terrorist sympathizer. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306709/original/file-20191212-85391-15vur88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this April 2009 photo, a Tea Party protester holds a doctored picture of Obama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Bazemore)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When Obama cruised to a second term against Mitt Romney, millions of Republicans turned to a helter-skelter politics of rage and paranoia — and into the arms of Trump, a vulgar demagogue of huge appetites and thin scruples.</p>
<p>Once again, this shrank the Republican Party’s field of voters to older, whiter and more conservative audiences. Against the uninspired campaign of Hillary Clinton, however, Trump <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/11/08/donald-trump-never-had-mandate-america">stumbled into the White House</a> with 46.1 per cent of the popular vote. </p>
<h2>Toward November</h2>
<p>Although most Americans don’t like him, Trump <a href="https://www.axios.com/trumps-approval-rating-republicans-partisan-a57662f1-b81d-493e-be90-48a3eeced360.html">has an 80 per cent approval rating</a> among Republicans. He uses this popularity, along with his Twitter feed, to bully Republican dissidents into silence.</p>
<p>In any case, the Republicans now have little choice but to double down on their far-right vision of America, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/13/voter-suppression-2020-democracy-america">using voter suppression to eke out more wins</a> in the Electoral College. Having alienated almost every other demographic, they must stick with their Trump-loving base. They have no one else.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306710/original/file-20191212-85371-1v1rr1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perry is seen in this October 2019 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, the contemporary Republican Party has many elements of a cult of personality. Rick Perry, the former energy secretary, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/25/rick-perry-donald-trump-chosen-one">even recently likened Trump</a> to the patriarchs of the Old Testament. The party does not even try to control its fringe elements; it <em>is</em> a fringe element, an anti-democratic force of recent history that threatens to consume the world’s oldest democracy.</p>
<p>This means that Trump will survive the impeachment process in early 2020, no matter what malfeasance comes to light. The Republicans will protect their man at all costs. And Trump will do everything he can to win in November, unburdened by any sense of propriety, fairness or facts. It’s not even clear if he would accept defeat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/would-trump-concede-in-2020-a-lesson-from-1800-122179">Would Trump concede in 2020? A lesson from 1800</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Against such a foe, the Democrats’ best chance is to lose their fear of it — and then call on their growing majority to demand a broader, more decent definition of government of, by, and for the people.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128075/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.M. Opal receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Trump will survive the impeachment process in 2020, no matter what malfeasance comes to light. The Republicans will protect their man at all costs.Jason Opal, Associate Professor of History and Chair, History and Classical Studies, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.