Will he or won’t he hit the bullseye? Using Bayes’ Theorem, your prediction will be based on how the current match is going - and how he’s played in the past.
The decisions we make in life often come down to Bayes' Theorem, but most of us don't even realise what it is. So how does it work?
How risky is it to swim?
We naturally overestimate the risk of rare events, like shark attacks or terrorism. But there are things you can do to think more rationally about the real risk.
How do we know it’s safe?
Reporting science involves talking about risk, but it must be done carefully. There are also certain words and images that should be avoided whenever possible.
Allowing nursing home residents to come and go as they wish may not be so dangerous after all.
Older people in nursing homes or aged care facilities are often locked up "for their own safety", which new research says isn't usually needed.
Maintenance work on Lock and Dam 8 on the Mississippi River near Genoa, Wisconsin.
Patrick Moes, USACE/Flickr
Old and degraded infrastructure costs the United States money and puts lives at risk. A civil engineer describes some innovative ways to measure risks and prioritize repairs.
The right questions and planning can help universities to mitigate risk.
Risk has to do with uncertainty; people struggle to conceptualise and manage that which they're unsure about. This is true in the higher education sector, too.
Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
The recent film Sully reveals just what pilots are facing in a disaster situation.
Gareth Fuller / PA
We're more likely to remember a storm with a human face – and will prepare for it.
Genomes can reveal a lot about disease risk. But people need to think carefully about what they want to know.
This man needs to trust you before listening to your public health message. No wonder bombarding him with facts doesn’t always work.
Reassuring people "not to worry" about public health issues like vaccination or fluoridated water doesn't work. Nor does telling people "don't panic". So, what does?
Globally the frequency of natural disasters has more than doubled over the past 35 years.
CGIAR/Challenge food and water programme
Wetlands management is vital but sweeping statements about their universal value may do more harm than good.
It’s important to get the research across to and understood by decision-makers.
Research comes with risk and uncertainty so getting the right message across to the people who matter can be a challenge for scientists. A new plan out today hopes to change that.
There’s a reason why some people don’t want to listen. Know that and you might stand a better chance of getting your point across.
What gets in the way of a productive conversation about risk communication? Being a normal human, that's what.
Risky roulette or a safer option? Your brain gives you clues about how you behave with money.
Why are some people more comfortable than others with making risky financial decisions?
Eskom power lines. South Africa’s power utility may be in a much weaker financial position than generally appreciated.
A closer look into the latest financial numbers of South Africa's state power utility, Eskom, suggest that it may be in a more vulnerable position than appreciated.
Worth the risk?
Why research into male contraception keeps hitting the buffers.
Australian company directors need to be aware of climate risks in their decision-making.
Company directors who ignore or don't properly asses climate related risks could be found liable for breaching their duty of care.
Companies have been caught off guard by campaigns to divest from fossil fuels.
Most businesses construct climate risk solely through the lens of profitability and market opportunity.
The Australian Prudential Regulation should be put up for a capability review.
Just when we all thought that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) had already won the race to be most ineffective regulator of the year, up pops the Australian Prudential Regulation…
The RBA noted the forecast large increases in supply in some inner-city apartment markets as a concerning risk.
There are still a number of factors pointing to the risk in Australia's housing market that the Reserve Bank hasn't noted in its latest risk analysis.