tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/shooters-and-fishers-party-15662/articlesShooters and Fishers Party – The Conversation2019-03-24T02:57:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1134852019-03-24T02:57:49Z2019-03-24T02:57:49ZNSW Coalition scrapes back in as minor parties surge – but delivering on promises will not be easy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265450/original/file-20190324-36252-j4x2lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Having been returned to power, the Berejiklian now has to deliver on its big promises.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“It’s not a game of SimCity,” NSW treasurer, Dominic Perrottet assured viewers on the ABC’s NSW election night coverage. “Sydney’s under construction”, he added, acknowledging the Coalition government’s unfinished infrastructure projects are causing grief, but noting, “I don’t sense any baseball bats”. He was right.</p>
<p>Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s Liberal-National government was <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">returned to office</a> on Saturday night, albeit on a slender margin. With the victory came some wreckage, and largely unexpected beneficiaries. This poll was predicted to be decided in the bush, and that’s where the movement occurred.</p>
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<p>The Nationals lost the long held seats of Murray and Barwon on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw-election-2019/">swings of around 27% and 21% respectively</a>. And it was the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers that swept the field, capitalising on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/04/dumb-mistake-andrew-broad-says-pressures-of-the-job-took-heavy-toll">internal Nationals strife</a> and pledging to act on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought-109880">fish kill</a>, water security and the drought.</p>
<p>The Shooters also consolidated the slender claim they had on Orange after the 2017 byelection, securing a 37% swing to make the central west firmly their own. A possible tempering of the Shooters vote in light of events in Christchurch didn’t eventuate, with victorious Orange candidate, Phil Donato, telling Channel Seven, “there wasn’t a real lot of talk about it”, adding, “it’s unfortunate it was politicised by the government.”</p>
<p>NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro remarked that his was “not a party of ideology” but a “party of geography”. He wasn’t wrong. While they incurred considerable drops in support in parts of the central, southern and outer west of the state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw-election-2019/">the Nationals actually attracted a swing</a> of, on average, 5.6% across the seats of Clarence, Cootamundra, Monaro, Northern Tablelands and Oxley. Nevertheless, their Coalition partners were clearly concerned at the federal implications. Progressive Liberal Trent Zimmerman reserved particular scorn for Barnaby Joyce, arguing the NSW result confirmed, “he should spend more time in Tamworth and less time on TV”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265453/original/file-20190324-36248-1q1vfq6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">For the Nationals, under leader John Barilaro, the election result was a poor one.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span>
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<p>Newly-minted independent, Joe McGirr, has made Wagga Wagga his own, retaining the seat he won from the Liberals at <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/independent-joe-mcgirr-officially-declared-winner-in-wagga-20180914-p503tm.html">last year’s byelection</a> and building his buffer to over 15%. Long-standing Lake Macquarie independent, Greg Piper has put the one-time Labor stronghold squarely out of reach, picking up a 12% swing in the process. Depending on the flow of votes in the lower house, there is talk Piper will be approached for the speakership.</p>
<p>Affirming this election’s broad trend away from the major parties, Alex Greenwich retained Sydney with a roughly 3% swing in his favour. While still in doubt, independent Mathew Dickerson is making a very close run affair of Dubbo, nudging the high profile Nationals’ candidate, Dugald Saunders, a former ABC radio host.</p>
<p>Unlike the independents and the Shooters, One Nation was never going to secure lower house representation. But it did make notable inroads in urban areas. At last count, the NSW arm of Pauline Hanson’s party was odds on to usurp the Greens as the third force in Sydney metropolitan seats like Camden, Holsworthy, Penrith and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>Despite their recent internal turmoil, the Greens made a strong showing in lower house voting. Jamie Parker (Balmain) and Jenny Leong (Newtown) substantially grew their base, securing swings of 6.4 and 5.1% respectively. While in the north, Tamara Smith expanded her two-party preferred vote to over 57%.</p>
<p>The struggle to take neighbouring Lismore is going down to the wire, with former federal Labor MP, Janelle Saffin a chance to pull ahead of the Greens and Nationals in a complex three-way preference contest.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">Coalition wins a third term in NSW with few seats changing hands</a>
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<p>The outcome for the Greens and the Coalition in the upper house won’t be determined for some time. The trend towards minor parties and independents in the lower house, however, suggests that they will feature substantially in the 21 Legislative Council spots in play.</p>
<p>One Nation’s Mark Latham looks to have secured the required 4.55% vote share, with his party a chance for a second. At last count, the Coalition had just over seven spots, Labor six the Greens two and the Shooters one. The eventual upper house composition will almost certainly see the Coalition required to deal with a significantly expanded and unwieldy crossbench; a change from their current, more predictable arrangements, usually with the Christian Democrats.</p>
<p>This election will be remembered as a contest of clear delineations for the Coalition. While their partners, the Nationals, took substantial hits in the bush, the Liberals managed to hold the line in the city, losing Coogee, but retaining marginal East Hills, against the odds.</p>
<p>Labor leader Michael Daley’s “schools and hospitals before stadiums” message may have found traction in pre-election polling and with parts of the electorate, but it wasn’t sufficient for a relatively untested leader to take down a government pledging to “get it done” on infrastructure programs worth over A$80 billion.</p>
<p>Getting it done is the task now for the Berejiklian government, who will be looking to deliver on the large scale but delay-plagued infrastructure projects it has undertaken. Pressing ahead with that agenda won’t be easy for a government skirting a possible minority in the lower house and an unknown quantity in the upper house.</p>
<p>As for Labor, Daley is seeking to stick it out. Barring the stumbles of the last week of his campaign, he has performed remarkably well for a leader in the job only four months, fronting a party that only eight years ago suffered one of the worst electoral defeats in Australian political history. That might not matter to those seeking a new leadership direction after Saturday’s result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113485/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sense that the Berejiklian government had done enough to be re-elected proved correct, with a strong economy and a big infrastructure program enough to secure the Coalition a third term.Andy Marks, Assistant Vice-Chancellor, Strategy and Policy, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/380342015-03-26T19:34:16Z2015-03-26T19:34:16ZNSW voters set to back Baird, but upper house is too close to call<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76044/original/image-20150325-12305-yjq95e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New South Wales Premier Mike Baird looks likely to keep enjoying the view from the top of the state after the March 28 poll.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/mikebairdMP/photos/pcb.852868001508109/852855004842742/?type=1&theater">Mike Baird/Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With just one full day of campaigning left in the New South Wales election, the result is already clear. Mike Baird’s Liberal and National government will be re-elected, though with a reduced number of Coalition members returning to the treasury benches.</p>
<p>Had there not been shock results in Queensland and Victoria, where first-term governments fell in narrow races, this completely run-of-the-mill result in NSW would be filed unnoticed among the tradition of Australian voters giving new governments the benefit of the doubt. </p>
<p>For the jaded observer, wondering if all the election sound and fury has signified anything, the evidence is that little has really changed over the course of the campaign. Monday’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/nsw-election-liberals-mike-baird-beats-labors-luke-foley-polls/6339672">Fairfax/Ipsos two-party preferred poll</a> showing the Liberal Nationals ahead on 54% of support to Labor’s 46% is unchanged from <a href="http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/1112-mar-2015/">Galaxy polling</a> in January.</p>
<p>Given so many journalists put on their party frocks to dance at this ball, the parties could have at least been a bit more creative in their campaigning.</p>
<p>So many of the protagonists have been pictured in grainy black and white images, complete with menacing music, that NSW politics has looked like a 1950s noir film.</p>
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<p>On some of its “<a href="http://www.liberalchoiceshurt.com.au/">Liberal choices hurt</a>” billboards, Labor has juxtaposed boyband-fresh Premier Mike Baird against grim, Fagin-like images of Prime Minister Tony Abbott. In other ads, like this one, Baird is pictured alongside Abbott, with the question for voters: “What do we really know about NSW Premier Mike Baird?”</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, the Liberals have played up the fact that Luke Foley became leader of the Labor Party only at the start of this year by attacking him as an “<a href="http://www.RiskyFoley.org.au">L-plater</a>” – a line straight out of the federal Liberals’ 2004 campaign ads against Mark Latham.</p>
<p>To the NSW Liberals’ credit, they have at least shown a little more creativity in how they have used the L-plate graphic: not in the L for Labor, nor the L for Luke, but in the middle of Foley. </p>
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<h2>‘The Abbott effect’ hasn’t all gone one way</h2>
<p>Contrary to most expectations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-abbott-invisible-in-nsw-campaign-will-prove-difficult-37347">including my own</a>, the Liberals have done a pretty good job of keeping the prime minister away from the campaign. </p>
<p>Unable to exclude the New South Welshman completely from his home state, when Abbott has not been kept busy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/13/tony-abbott-eats-raw-onion">eating onions in Tasmania</a> or <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/australias-pm-apologizes-for-goebbels-comparison/">crow in Parliament</a>, the NSW branch has included him in events related to “signature” Abbott policies. For instance, the prime minister was there for the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/tony-abbott-and-mike-baird-turn-first-sods-for--westconnex-20150308-13y859.html">turning of the first sod</a> of the WestConnex road project, which the federal government has backed via both the Roads of the 21st Century and Asset Recycling initiatives.</p>
<p>He was also at the NSW Liberals’ official launch last Sunday, where Baird made a point of saying: “What a pleasure it is to stand here in front of a friend of mine, the prime minister, Tony Abbott.” </p>
<p>As all the news reports noted afterwards, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-mike-baird-dodges-friendly-fire/story-fnsgbndb-1227273713650">Abbott left the talking to Baird</a>.</p>
<p>The prime minister has played some part in this campaign, with higher education reforms and the looming federal budget keeping national issues in voters’ minds. </p>
<p>A month ago, The Sydney Morning Herald’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/baird-effect-v-abbott-effect-a-precarious-balance-20150227-13r1nc.html">Peter Hartcher warned</a> that: </p>
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<p>The Abbott effect imposes an average penalty of 3% across state seats held by the junior coalition partner, the Nationals, and 7% across Liberal seats, according to well-placed sources.</p>
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<p>As it has turned out, it has not all been one-way traffic. Abbott’s continued visibility on the national stage has also helped highlight Baird’s positives.</p>
<p>When Baird replaced Barry O'Farrell as the state leader just under a year ago, the Liberals played up Baird’s close ties to the prime minister: not only as a <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/17/christian-surfer-next-nsw-premier">surfing buddy of Abbott’s</a>, but as a fellow Christian with an attractive family, who also represents a north-shore Sydney electorate.</p>
<p>However, Baird in election mode is the anti-Abbott: relaxed where the other is wooden; articulate, not faltering; friendly, not threatening.</p>
<p>As the ABC’s Vote Compass has shown, Baird is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-26/antony-green-vote-compass-nsw-analysis-mike-baird-popularity/6348658">extraordinarily popular</a> for a state leader. He has a personal approval rating of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-bairds-popularity-trumping-electricity-sale-fears-20150322-1m4xi1.html">60%</a>. Even the worst black-and-white attack ad image just makes the man look more chiselled. </p>
<h2>What the privatisation debate revealed</h2>
<p>Policy-wise, the election has been interesting in highlighting key differences: though not so much differences between the two major parties, as between Australian voters and the political elite. The most obvious example of this has been the issue of privatisation.</p>
<p>Stripped of the capacity to raise revenue, state governments have had to use asset sales to fund new infrastructure and, at times, recurrent expenditure. This is a basic reality of Australian federalism that structurally pushes parties in government towards neo-liberal policies. </p>
<p>From the outset, Baird has been keen to establish an electoral mandate for “poles and wires” privatisation, stating there was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/bairds-doordie-infrastructure-plan-there-is-no-plan-b-20150227-13r2wz.html">“no Plan B”</a> to fund his A$20 billion of election commitments. </p>
<p>While Labor has had privatisation at the core of its campaign, it has been somewhat disingenuous. The ALP has long been an advocate of <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/03/12/is-privatisation-next-in-labors-tattered-playbook/?wpmp_switcher=mobile">privatising various state-owned assets</a>, not only in NSW but nationally. </p>
<p>Its conversion to the anti-privatisation cause has clearly been one of electoral necessity: giving it an issue to beat up the government on, while also attracting vital union members and funds. </p>
<p>Labor has prided itself on the success of its <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/rules-for-radicals-comes-to-carrum">“community organising” campaigns</a>, a la <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-10897082">Obama</a>, in delivering recent electoral gains in <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/victorian-state-election-how-labor-and-the-unions-blew-up-the-coalition-20141130-11x325.html">Victoria</a> and Queensland.</p>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.unionsnsw.org.au/knocking4change">Unions NSW</a></span>
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<p>A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-2015-doors-open-for-campaigners-who-dont-mention-politics">union-led volunteer campaign</a> has covered impressive territory: reportedly doorknocking more than 27,000 homes across the state (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-winner-seems-clear-fear-anxiety-nerves-take-hold">The Guardian says</a> the residents were home about half the time); putting up <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NSWPowerSellOff">fluorescent banners</a> along main streets and highways; and making <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-winner-seems-clear-fear-anxiety-nerves-take-hold">3,500 phone calls</a> in the past two weeks.</p>
<p>But Labor’s stance on privatisation left it vulnerable on another key policy front, which voters in Sydney are particularly concerned about.</p>
<p>On transport, Labor split in opposite directions: on one hand, running against major road infrastructure in the inner west of Sydney; on the other, releasing a pro-Parramatta Road expansion policy for western Sydney seats. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/westconnex-boss-tony-shepherd-says-labors-plan-would-create-more-innerwest-congestion-20150220-13k0ab.html">Trimming WestConnex’s tunnel and exit into St Peters</a> has been at the heart of this compromise. But it was telling that the ALP released its modest transport policy in the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-alp-reveals-modest-infrastructure-plan-20150219-13j13e.html">first week of the campaign</a>, and Foley has largely run <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/remove-mike-baird-and-you-remove-tony-abbott-luke-foley-tells-the-faithful-20150322-1m4wie.html">quiet on transport</a> since.</p>
<h2>Minor parties in the major battle ahead</h2>
<p>The electorate <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-26/antony-green-vote-compass-nsw-analysis-mike-baird-popularity/6348658">loathes privatisation</a>, providing minor parties across the state with some traction and a chance to differentiate themselves from Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals in this campaign.</p>
<p>In inner Sydney, the Greens have worked the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">WestConnex</a> angle hard in an attempt to win the newly established progressive seat of Newtown – though polls suggest <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/">a Labor win</a> there. The Greens have also campaigned on the issue of cruise ship pollution in an attempt to retain Balmain, in an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/alan-jones-backs-balmain-residents-battle-against-cruise-ship-pollution">odd alliance with broadcaster Alan Jones</a>. That’s an issue neither of the major parties has clean hands on. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Greens’ campaigns in regional NSW – particularly their push for a <a href="http://nsw.greens.org.au/policies/nsw/coal-and-coal-seam-gas">ban on coal seam gas</a> – could deliver more seats in the upper house. </p>
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<p>The battle for the upper house is really the one to watch. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-privatisation-could-hinge-on-a-single-upper-house-vote-38297">this Conversation article</a> covers in more detail, the Baird government’s post-election plans including privatisation could hinge on a single upper house vote.</p>
<p>The new No Land Tax Party has two advantages in its favour: it won the first position on the Legislative Council ballot paper, and it has the ability to raise considerable funds from supporters in the commercial real estate industry.</p>
<p>Having been frustrated by the Shooters and Fishers party in the last parliamentary term over disputes about the NSW Game Council and hunting in parks, the Liberal Nationals are hoping for a strong enough vote in the upper house so they need only negotiate with the Christian Democrats. Polling indicates this will be extremely close. </p>
<p>As preferences will be very important, the unusual way voters have preferenced in recent state elections makes our ability to predict the outcome even <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/polls-and-preferences-the-new-challenge-for-election-watchers">less reliable than in the past</a>.</p>
<p>On election night, all eyes will be on the Legislative Council. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-privatisation-could-hinge-on-a-single-upper-house-vote-38297">21 seats</a> up for grabs there will – almost certainly – determine if likeable Mike Baird can act on his mandate for privatisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38034/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With just a day of campaigning left in the New South Wales election, the result is already clear. Mike Baird’s government will be re-elected – but the battle for 21 upper house seats will be crucial.Peter John Chen, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382972015-03-25T19:15:44Z2015-03-25T19:15:44ZNSW privatisation could hinge on a single upper house vote<p>The Baird government looks likely to be re-elected at the New South Wales election – but, at this stage, it’s hard to see it winning as many seats as it needs in the upper house to push ahead with power privatisation.</p>
<p>That’s why, this Saturday night, we can only hope the TV coverage of the NSW election devotes plenty of time to the Legislative Council and its new members, rather than just focusing on the lower house results.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/media_releases/2015/13_march_know_your_candidates_for_the_nsw_state_election">record 394 candidates</a> are vying for a Legislative Council seat in this election.</p>
<p>The 42-seat NSW upper house is elected by proportional representation, which produces different outcomes to the lower house. Members are elected for eight-year terms, with half elected every four years. </p>
<p>Combined with the 11 members they have who aren’t up for re-election, this time the Liberal Nationals need to win 10 upper house seats to hold a majority in their own right. </p>
<p>However, the more likely outcome is that minor parties such as the Christian Democrats, led by veteran member of the Legislative Council (MLC) <a href="http://frednilemlc.com.au/">Fred Nile</a>, will have the final say on the government’s plans.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"575887740778082304"}"></div></p>
<h2>How is the upper house elected, and who’s there now?</h2>
<p>As you can see from the NSW Parliament table below, the Liberal National coalition was just shy of a majority in this last term of office. So whenever Labor and the Greens opposed legislation, the government needed the support of other crossbenchers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NSW Legislative Council before the 2015 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 21 seats up for grabs in this election are those of the members elected in 2007, when the Coalition won eight seats, the ALP nine, the Greens two and the Christian Democrats and the Shooters and Fishers one each. </p>
<p>To be elected, members need to achieve a quota of 4.55%. But because voting is optional preferential both above and below the line, a high percentage of votes is exhausted and the final candidates can be elected with less than a full quota. (More information on how to vote correctly for the upper house can be found on the <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission’s website</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Upper house results from the past 37 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whoever forms the next NSW government would need 21 votes to pass legislation. As ABC election analyst Antony Green explains in this detailed look at the intricacies of the NSW upper house, the Legislative Council President <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/the-battle-for-the-nsw-legislative-council.html">rarely uses</a> her or his casting vote.</p>
<p>But even if the Baird government wins the election, it faces an even bigger challenge to win a majority in the upper house because of the huge number of candidates in this election, including 24 party groupings with above-the-line positions. </p>
<h2>The parties to watch in 2015</h2>
<p>On March 28, NSW voters will be faced with another metre-long <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/above-the-line-is-their-preference/story-fnrskx7r-1227273862005">“tablecloth” ballot</a> for the upper house. That makes it even more likely the vast majority will choose to vote above the line, rather than below.</p>
<p>The prized <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/nsw-election-party-using-fake-photos-wins-top-spot-on-ballot/6309904">first position</a> above the line has gone to the <a href="http://www.nolandtax.com.au/">No Land Tax Party</a>, which has likened its fight to abolish land tax to getting rid of death duties in the early 1980s.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As this Australian Cyclists Party campaign material shows, the ballot paper is huge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The No Land Tax Party has been working with preferences expert Glenn Druery, who <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">told The Daily Telegraph</a> this week that “people will get lost on the ballot paper”, giving the minor party a good shot at attracting enough <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/voting/electoral-system/donkey-votes">donkey votes</a> to help win a seat.</p>
<p>The Coalition is listed fifth, while Labor is 11th. </p>
<p>All the way at the other end of the ballot is the <a href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a>, which has drawn the 24th and final position, group X. It is contesting a NSW election for the first time, and is pushing for more bike paths, safer roads and a review of speed limits.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voting above the line is again likely to be the most popular way to vote in the upper house – but you can also choose to vote below the line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The large number of candidates and minor parties will divert votes from the major parties, particularly if voters do not direct preferences to parties above the line or vote for more than 15 candidates below the line (if you choose to vote below the line, you must number at least 15 squares, from 1 to 15, for your vote to be counted; <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">read more here</a>).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">The Daily Telegraph reported</a> on March 25 that senior Labor and Coalition sources think the most likely upper house result is that the Coalition will have 20 seats, Labor 13, the Greens five, Shooters and Fishers Party two and Reverend Nile’s Christian Democratic Party two. </p>
<h2>Where the parties stand on privatisation</h2>
<p>Labor, the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers Party have all vowed to oppose power privatisation, which is the key to funding the government’s A$20 billion long-term infrastructure plans.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Bloomberg Business story shared on Fred Nile’s Facebook page, March 24.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153261321734379&id=152695849378">Fred Nile - Official Christian Democratic Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That could leave the casting votes with the Christian Democrats. And it’s not entirely clear yet which way they would go. </p>
<p>As well as insisting on a five-year job guarantee for electricity workers, <a href="http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/media-releases/rev-fred-nile-states-that-the-cdps-conditions-on-privatisation-will-not-alter/">Reverend Nile has reiterated</a> that his party would “use our balance of power in the Upper House to oppose any government proposal to sell our poles and wires offshore”, amid <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-25/nsw-election-mike-baird-under-pressure-china-state-grid-corp/6346342">speculation about Chinese interest</a> in the 99-year leases.</p>
<p>He also plans to chair a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">parliamentary inquiry</a> into the privatisation after the election. </p>
<p>Any restriction on foreign ownership combined with job protection could reduce the value of the 99-year leases of NSW power assets.</p>
<p>Early in this campaign, Premier Mike Baird said that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-27/no-back-up-plan-if-electricity-sale-falls-flat-baird/6269296">“there is no Plan B”</a> to fund many of his key policies without power privatisation. Unless he gains control of the Legislative Council, he may need to devise one.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bronwyn Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A re-elected Liberal National government needs to win 10 upper house seats in this year’s NSW election to hold a clear majority. But any fewer than 10, and it may need a Plan B on privatisation.Bronwyn Stevens, Lecturer in Politics, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391102015-03-25T01:24:25Z2015-03-25T01:24:25Z#NSWVotes Twitter chatter shows the power of incumbency<p>UPDATED MARCH 27, 11:45AM AEDT: Mike Baird’s Liberal National coalition government has dominated the campaign conversation on Twitter. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.thehypometer.com">Hypometer™ technology</a>, we have been tracking the NSW election in real time and publishing infographics on:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of posts</a> (including which parties have been most active)</li>
<li>how often the Liberal and Labor parties are <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png">being mentioned on Twitter</a></li>
<li>and, for the first time, we are tracking the <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">average sentiment</a> expressed about six different political parties, including trending hashtags. </li>
</ul>
<p>We have embedded those infographics into this article, and they will keep updating every five minutes with the latest social media data. You can keep seeing the latest results right through to polling day this Saturday.</p>
<h2>How much people are tweeting about the Liberals v Labor</h2>
<p>Overall, <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of Twitter conversation</a> mentioning the parties has been fairly consistent at around 200-250 posts per hour, peaking at around 400-500 per hour each evening. The biggest spikes in activity on March 8 and 13 related to the election debates. Earlier spikes related to the announcement of the election. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/images/election-allparty.png"></p>
<p>The seven parties tracked above are, in order, the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Shooters and Fishers Party and the Country Labor Party.</p>
<p>As with the Queensland election, the minor parties in NSW have been playing a very small role in overall conversation. For much of the campaign, the Nationals have seen just 5% of the conversation, dropping to 4% for the Greens, and 1-2% for the other parties. (This may change in the final days of the campaign: the infographic below shows the latest results.)</p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png"></p>
<p>As the campaign has progressed, the balance of conversation across the two major parties shifted somewhat more towards Labor, although this came at the expense of the minor parties rather than conversation around the Liberals. Discussion of the Liberal Party has largely held steady at around 55% of the total party-related conversation.</p>
<p>We saw similar patterns before January’s state election in Queensland, where the majority of pre-election Twitter chatter focused on the Liberal National government, but that government was later narrowly defeated.</p>
<p>In both Queensland and NSW, it’s the incumbent effect at work, where people are more likely to be talking about the current government, in both positive and negative ways.</p>
<h2>Tracking sentiment</h2>
<p>For the first time, we have also been using Hypometer technology to <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">track sentiment</a> during the campaign. A single tweet on its own tells us little, but aggregating the tweets relating to each of the parties on each day may generate a better picture of overall sentiment. </p>
<p>Early analysis indicates that such sentiment shifts rapidly from day to day and can be heavily influenced by external events. For example, the shift in tone of those discussing the Liberal Party has, at times, been affected significantly by events at the federal level – especially early in the campaign when there was still speculation about a leadership spill. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png"></p>
<p>Green indicates more positive Twitter comments, while red is for more negative. The parties listed, in order, are the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Country Labor Party.</p>
<h2>Hot topics</h2>
<p>State-level policies are still influential in the overall conversation. To date, the most prominent trending hashtags in our data set – ignoring generic hashtags such as #nswvotes and #nswpol – have largely related to specific events.</p>
<p>For example, on March 19 #balmainforum was among the most popular Twitter topics in Sydney, as the Greens’ Jamie Parker and the ALP’s Verity Firth battled it out in a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/jamie-parker-and-verity-firth-battle-it-out-for-greens-and-labor-at-inner-west-courier-election-forum/story-fngr8h4f-1227269718935">debate</a> for the inner-west Sydney seat of Balmain.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"578526315013259264"}"></div></p>
<p>But some competing party policies on specific issues have also cut through with particular hashtags, including such #nswnotforsale for electricity privatisation and #csg for coal seam gas, as well as #pilliga (a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-20/labor-pilliga-csg-ban-could-cost-taxpayers-nsw-govt-says/6334990">reference</a> to coal seam gas exploration in the Pilliga Forest).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"576951829738577920"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580246238244667393"}"></div></p>
<h2>The benefit of incumbency</h2>
<p>Overall, social media patterns cannot tell us who is going to win the NSW election, nor can social media necessarily decide the election. </p>
<p>And of course it should be noted that the Twitter conversation covers only part of the overall public debate. Twitter’s demographics in Australia skew towards a 25- to 55-year-old, urban, educated group, which tends to be influential in public debate, but does not represent everybody. What our research reveals should therefore be seen within a wider context of public debate and discussion.</p>
<p>However, our observations to date confirm the benefit of incumbency and provide a useful indication of the changes in discussion around the parties, in both volume and sentiment, throughout the campaign. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darryl Woodford is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Prowd is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p>UPDATED March 27, 11:45am: These live infographics continue to show the most tweeted about people and parties in the New South Wales election.Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Assistant Data Analyst, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.