tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/southeast-asia-12302/articlesSoutheast Asia – The Conversation2024-03-21T12:25:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251482024-03-21T12:25:24Z2024-03-21T12:25:24ZFor centuries, owls were considered to bring bad luck in many cultures as well as in the US, but the outpouring of grief in New York over Flaco shows how times have changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582910/original/file-20240319-18-c403qf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C6332%2C3736&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tributes left at a memorial for Flaco the owl in Central Park in New York.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EscapedOwlCentralPark/0e033d63fec14c708cde28f9250f19da/photo?Query=flaco%20owl&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=37&currentItemNo=20">AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/24/1233703492/flaco-new-york-owl-dies-building-collision">outpouring of grief in New York City</a> ever since the beloved Eurasian eagle-owl Flaco died on Feb. 23, 2024, after striking a building. In 2023, after escaping from Central Park Zoo, Flaco survived for over a year on his own, captivating New Yorkers.</p>
<p>Mourners <a href="https://abc7ny.com/videoClip/14465905/">are leaving notes and flowers</a> at the base of an old oak tree in Central Park, reportedly a favorite roost of his. <a href="https://www.artandobject.com/news/fans-call-statue-honor-beloved-owl-flaco#">Thousands have signed a petition for a statue in his honor</a>. Figure skaters honored him with a show called “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/flaco-the-owl-remembered-with-fly-be-free-ice-show-at-central-parks-wollman-rink/">Fly. Be Free</a>.” </p>
<p>This reaction to Flaco’s death would be mystifying for many people around the world. I <a href="https://www.macalester.edu/anthropology/facultystaff/arjunguneratne/">have spent a decade studying</a> the history of ornithology in Sri Lanka, including local beliefs in the owl as a bird that foretells deaths. Meanwhile, in some societies, owls were (and are) seen as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24750263.2023.2254823">a symbol of wisdom</a> or even a sign of good luck.</p>
<p>But, by far, the most widespread belief about owls is that they are associated with witchcraft and death. </p>
<p>In much of the world – in African societies, among <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jsh/shw089">African Americans in the U.S. South</a> and the <a href="https://ugapress.org/book/9780820328157/spirits-of-the-air/">Indigenous people</a> <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo34116501.html">of the Americas</a>, and throughout South and Southeast Asia as well as in Europe – owls are seen as harbingers of death. The Cajuns, French-speaking refugees who settled in Louisiana’s bayou country after being driven out of Nova Scotia by the British, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/534893">feared the screech of an owl</a>.</p>
<p>The American philosopher Henry David Thoreau <a href="https://archive.vcu.edu/english/engweb/transcendentalism/authors/thoreau/walden/chapter04.html">wrote in his book “Walden</a>” that owls “represent the stark twilight and unsatisfied thoughts which all have.” Nineteenth and early 20th century Americans <a href="https://www.carolinabirdclub.org/BOCC/Non-Passerines/25%20Owls/01%20Strigidae%20Family%20True%20Owls.pdf">were more likely to shoot an owl as an undesirable predator</a> than leave flowers at a memorial for one. But Flaco’s year of fame shows <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/9080/owls-united-states-and-canada">the sea change in the way Western cultures have come to regard owls</a> since Thoreau’s time. </p>
<h2>Birds of ill-omen</h2>
<p>During the Tang dynasty, which ruled China from the seventh to the 10th century, owls were thought to bring bad luck; they were despised for <a href="https://doi.org/10.3406/befeo.2016.6236">supposedly eating their mothers</a>. The Aztec god of death, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/00141801-8266452">Mictlantecuhtli, is accompanied by an owl</a>. Jahangir, one of the Mughal emperors of India, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0010417523000245">sought to control the sale of owl meat in his empire</a> because it was believed to be an ingredient for sorcery. </p>
<p>Such beliefs also prevailed in Europe. The Roman philosopher Pliny the Elder, who died in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, said the owl was a “<a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/9080/owls-united-states-and-canada">monster of the night … [and] a direful omen</a>.” In the European Middle Ages, owls were thought to accompany witches. No wonder, then, that J.K. Rowling has Harry Potter’s mail delivered by an owl. </p>
<p>The French call the barn owl “chouette effraie des clochers,” literally, “the scary owl of the bell towers.” Shakespeare made use of the idea that owls foretold death in many of his plays. For instance, Lady Macbeth says, “It was the owl that shrieked,” foretelling the murder of Duncan by her husband. </p>
<p>These beliefs lingered in England until World War II, when they began to disappear. </p>
<h2>The legend from Sri Lanka</h2>
<p>For centuries, people living in rural areas in Sri Lanka <a href="https://youtu.be/p46A3HMuoCo?feature=shared">have believed in a “devil bird,” or “ulama</a>” in the local Sinhala language, that foretold a death. </p>
<p>The basis of this belief was a legend that told of a man who, to punish his wife, gave her the flesh of her murdered child to cook. On discovering the truth, she fled screaming into the jungle. As the legend goes, she was turned into the ulama by the gods. In some versions of the tale, she was reborn as the devil bird. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p46A3HMuoCo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The sound of the ulama.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ever since, she is believed to haunt the jungle, her terrible cries foretelling a death in the community of whoever happens to hear them. </p>
<p>Such beliefs made sense to British colonizers, including planters carving out coffee estates in remote, forested areas during the 19th century. They would have heard strange, blood-curdling cries from the forests that surrounded their houses. The local villagers’ explanations for these cries would have made sense to them. The British, after all, also came from a society where superstitions concerning owls – the definitive birds of the night – <a href="https://books.google.com.vc/books?id=66N7I_6M7WUC&printsec=copyright#v=onepage&q=owls&f=false">were a part of folk belief</a>. </p>
<p>The identity of the ulama was <a href="http://archives.sundayobserver.lk/2004/01/18/fea14.html">extensively debated</a> throughout the 19th and early 20th century by ornithologists, who attributed these night sounds to some species of owl. Colonial British ornithologists eventually determined that the <a href="https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/61724#page/215/mode/1up">ulama was a species of large owl</a>, probably the <a href="https://ebird.org/species/sbeowl1">spot-bellied eagle-owl</a>. The identification is said to have been clinched when an eagle-owl was shot one moonlit night by a planter while it was making the ulama’s cry. </p>
<h2>Celebration of owls today</h2>
<p>The development of both scientific knowledge of birds and the popular hobby of birding has given people who live in the U.S. and Britain a decidedly different take on owls. Urbanization may also have something to do with it. Sri Lankan beliefs in the ulama, for example, are much less prevalent in urban areas than in the countryside. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing an owl sitting on top of a red polka dot couch with a honey pot resting on it, and a bear standing in front." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582912/original/file-20240319-16-8obym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An antique postcard showing Winnie-the-Pooh and Owl.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/reproduction-of-antique-postcard-shows-winnie-the-pooh-and-news-photo/1318727117?adppopup=true">Igor Golovniov/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In popular literature and culture in North America and Britain, owls have had their reputations rehabilitated. In A.A. Milne’s “Winnie-the-Pooh,” Owl is a likable bird who does his best to be intelligent and erudite. The National Audubon Society, one of the oldest bird conservation organizations in the U.S., sells <a href="https://www.audubon.org/marketplace/plush-birds#!">cuddly owl toys</a> that will hoot when squeezed. There’s even an annual <a href="https://www.festivalofowls.com/">International Festival of Owls</a> in Houston, Minnesota, where owls are celebrated. </p>
<p>That New Yorkers want to erect a memorial to Flaco is a remarkable instance of the ongoing rehabilitation of a group of birds that are charismatic, fascinating and quite undeserving of the bad rap they’ve been given over thousands of years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjun Guneratne receives funding from American Council of Learned Societies and Council of American Overseas Research Centers for work on the history of ornithology.</span></em></p>Owls, once seen as harbingers of death, are now celebrated in popular literature and culture in North America and Britain.Arjun Guneratne, Professor of Anthropology, Macalester CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250762024-03-07T00:01:53Z2024-03-07T00:01:53ZWhile the China threat grabs the headlines, these are the maritime issues Southeast Asians want to talk about<p>Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong issued a stark warning to Southeast Asian leaders this week: the region could face a “devastating” conflict over the South China Sea unless it strengthens its diplomatic and legal safeguards.</p>
<p>Wong said the region was already experiencing “<a href="https://aseanaustralia.pmc.gov.au/news/transcript-maritime-cooperation-forum-welcome-keynote-senator-hon-penny-wong-minister-foreign">destabilising, provocative and coercive actions</a>”, in addition to “unsafe conduct” in the air and sea. These were not-quite-so-veiled references to China’s recent actions in the South China Sea.</p>
<p>Other countries in the region – especially Vietnam and the Philippines – share similar concerns about China’s maritime assertions. They question, for instance, what Beijing’s rejection of the <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/research/south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling-what-happened-and-whats-next">2016 South China Sea tribunal ruling</a> might mean for upholding international maritime laws and keeping crucial sea trade routes open.</p>
<p>This week, Manila again called out China’s “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/05/south-china-sea-philippines-accuses-china-coastguard-of-reckless-action-after-collision?ref=mc.news">dangerous manoeuvres</a>” in the South China Sea. President Ferdinand Marcos junior <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/us-ally-says-it-will-not-yield-one-square-inch-territory-china-1874954#:%7E:text=%22I%20shall%20never%20tire%20of,an%20address%20to%20Australia's%20parliament.">vowed</a> not to yield an “inch” to China in the contested waters.</p>
<p>Australia and the Philippines recently signed an agreement to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-29/philippines-president-ferdinand-marcos-china-albanese-dutton-/103526654">deepen maritime co-operation</a>. This may lead to more joint defence exercises and patrols in the South China Sea. </p>
<p>But not all regional leaders agree about the potential threat. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-will-be-a-disaster-malaysian-pm-urges-world-to-accept-china-as-a-superpower-20240305-p5fa1y.html">Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim</a> issued a warning of his own at the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit this week over the West’s “China phobia”. If the US and Australia have problems with China, he said, “they should not impose it” on Southeast Asia.</p>
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<h2>Other challenges beyond territorial disputes</h2>
<p>There is no doubt the great power competition between the US and China sets the strategic backdrop for Australia’s engagement with Southeast Asia. </p>
<p>But while maritime co-operation is increasing among regional states, this doesn’t mean they all agree on the central issues that affect the stability, safety and security of the region’s waters, specifically the South China Sea.</p>
<p>Southeast Asian countries have diverse interests, political systems and strategic priorities. And leaders in the region – like those of many other smaller and middle powers around the world – regularly say they do not want to have choose between the US and China. </p>
<p>Not all countries are “hedging” to the same degree, but Australia should nevertheless focus its engagement on building genuine partnerships with Southeast Asian countries in their own right – not merely based on perceived external threats – and identifying and addressing shared issues of concern. </p>
<p>At this week’s ASEAN-Australia summit, for instance, Southeast Asian nations drove the idea of a dedicated maritime forum. While the forum did address security challenges such as <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bringing-grey-zone-focus">“grey zone” activities</a>, plenty of other challenges and opportunities were discussed. These included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the importance of the “blue economy” concept, focused on the sustainable use of maritime resources for development and prosperity</p></li>
<li><p>improving maritime connectivity by ensuring free and open sea lanes of communication</p></li>
<li><p>bolstering law enforcement and governance to ensure maritime order across the region</p></li>
<li><p>better addressing environmental and climate change issues.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>There was also a strong focus on understanding the local issues facing coastal and Indigenous communities in the region. An estimated <a href="https://digitalarchive.worldfishcenter.org/handle/20.500.12348/3283?show=full">70%</a> of Southeast Asia’s population lives by the coast, where they face increasing livability challenges due to climate change, economic uncertainty and the degradation of fishing stocks and natural resources. </p>
<p>This is not entirely new: ASEAN countries and Australia have been paying closer attention to shared maritime challenges beyond the sovereignty and maritime disputes in the South China Sea. </p>
<p>For example, ASEAN recently released its <a href="https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMO-1.pdf">maritime outlook</a>. In particular, it noted the importance of the region for “global trade, food and energy security and marine biodiversity”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-to-announce-2-billion-financing-facility-to-boost-economic-relations-with-southeast-asia-224964">Albanese to announce $2 billion financing facility to boost economic relations with Southeast Asia</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Opportunities for cooperation</h2>
<p>It is no surprise maritime security has reached this level of importance on a shared diplomatic agenda. </p>
<p>While the concerns over China’s activities are real, it’s important Australia and its neighbours to the north focus more attention on the vast range of other ocean-based issues that don’t get as much attention. </p>
<p>These priorities include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>protecting open ocean supply chains</p></li>
<li><p>reducing pollution, in particular plastics, and preventing coral bleaching</p></li>
<li><p>supporting sustainable, legal and regulated fishing</p></li>
<li><p>mitigating human, arms and drug trafficking</p></li>
<li><p>addressing the very real challenges that climate change and rising sea levels present to maritime Asia. </p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-dont-understand-about-chinas-actions-and-ambitions-in-the-south-china-sea-216068">What we don't understand about China's actions and ambitions in the South China Sea</a>
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</em>
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<p>These challenges are often less politically sensitive than strategic concerns, which enhances the prospects of co-operation. This is where science, research and development, knowledge sharing and expert networks can contribute to solving knotty problems. And many of these challenges are transnational, meaning they do not affect one state unilaterally, but often require collective responses. </p>
<p>The challenges are significant. So, too, are the opportunities for collaboration. Getting maritime co-operation right can support the <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/girt-sea-0">human rights and livelihoods</a> of millions of people across the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Strating receives funding from Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and was the Convenor of the 2024 Australia-ASEAN Special Summit Maritime Cooperation Forum: Conference. </span></em></p>Southeast Asian leaders have made clear their priorities this week. Some want more focus on climate change than geopolitical competition.Rebecca Strating, Director, La Trobe Asia and Professor, La Trobe University, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210882024-03-05T20:11:23Z2024-03-05T20:11:23ZPlight of migrant laborers killed, held hostage in Middle East exposes Israel’s reliance on overseas workforce<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579960/original/file-20240305-21577-9fmlrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C143%2C7961%2C4984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Thai foreign worker tends to an agriculture field in Beersheba, Israel.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.de/detail/nachrichtenfoto/thai-foreign-worker-tends-to-an-agriculture-field-near-nachrichtenfoto/1231752520?adppopup=true">Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An Indian laborer in Israel was killed and several other migrant workers injured on March 4, 2024, in <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/indian-killed-injured-anti-tank-missile-attack-israel-north-9195933/">a missile attack launched from Lebanon</a> by Hamas-aligned Hezbollah.</p>
<p>They are not the first migrant workers in Israel to get caught up in the monthslong fighting. Dozens of other farmworkers, agricultural apprentices and caregivers from countries including Thailand, Nepal, Tanzania, Cambodia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Moldova were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpeua8qUHmY&ab_channel=DWNews">murdered or taken hostage</a> during the Hamas attack of Oct. 7.</p>
<p>The sizable number of non-Israeli workers affected by the current war has <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-so-many-thai-workers-became-hamas-victims/a-67266701">surprised some onlookers</a> while shining a light on Israel’s reliance on temporary migrant workers.</p>
<p>But as researchers who study the <a href="https://cas.uoregon.edu/directory/global/all/jweise">proliferation of migrant workers</a> around the world, we know how labor migration programs have transformed nearly all societies, including <a href="https://hu-berlin.academia.edu/SShoham">Israel’s</a>. The long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict has shaped Israel’s migrant worker history – and has contributed to the globalization of the workforce in the Middle East.</p>
<h2>A global story</h2>
<p>The initial recruitment of overseas workers to Israel, which began as early as the 1970s, followed a <a href="https://www.law.uchicago.edu/bilateral-labor-agreements-dataset">post-World War II trend</a> that saw higher-income countries – such as the U.S., France and West Germany – sign labor migration recruitment agreements with poorer nations. These poorer countries, which at the time included Mexico, Spain and Turkey, among others, overcame an initial reluctance to lose part of their populace and began to see emigration as a strategy for modernization. The idea was that emigrants could learn modern farming or industrial skills overseas, while sending money back to boost development in their home communities.</p>
<p>In the 1970s and 1980s, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/migrants-for-export">many South and Southeast Asian countries</a> began to promote the export of migrant workers as a key piece of their economic development strategies. At the same time, receiving countries <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1080/0023656032000057010">became hooked</a> on the idea of a flexible, temporary labor force that would not inflame anti-immigrant sentiment as much as more settled migrants seemingly did.</p>
<p>Israel’s relationship with Thai workers came initially by way of the United States’ support for the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. The U.S. government <a href="https://usace.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p16021coll4/id/353">recruited Thai workers</a> who had once worked on Vietnam War-era U.S. military bases in northeastern Thailand to help build a new air force base in Israel.</p>
<p>The arrival of the Thai migrant workers, along with Portuguese workers, prompted public controversy among Israeli lawmakers, trade unionists and the media about the creation of a split labor market, as research done by <a href="https://hu-berlin.academia.edu/SShoham">one of us</a> has shown. Meanwhile, others worried that the workers’ presence cut against Zionist imperatives to guarantee a Jewish majority.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a hat handles crates being loaded onto the back of a tractor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C391%2C7241%2C4436&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579954/original/file-20240305-22-j0m1i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Thai worker labors in the field adjacent to the Gaza Strip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/october-2023-israel-sde-nitzan-a-thai-worker-continues-to-news-photo/1719823925?adppopup=true">Ilia Yefimovich/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Attempting to resolve these contradictions, the Israeli government <a href="https://www.trafflab.org/shahar-shoham">started to experiment</a> with migration policies designed for a new category of workers – neither Jewish nor Palestinian – who were intended to remain separate from Israeli society.</p>
<p>A decade later, in a different political moment, these policy ideas would become concrete in a new category of person in Israel: the “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/imre.12109">foreign worker</a>.”</p>
<h2>Growing recruitment</h2>
<p>The Israeli-Palestinian conflict drove the “foreign worker” policy forward. Though Israel was founded on the ideology of “avoda ivrit,” or Hebrew labor, Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza since 1967 has led to the recruitment of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian workers, who became an attractive <a href="https://cris.tau.ac.il/en/publications/power-breaking-or-power-entrenching-law-the-regulation-of-palesti">low-wage labor force</a>.</p>
<p>They soon came to <a href="https://cris.tau.ac.il/en/publications/power-breaking-or-power-entrenching-law-the-regulation-of-palesti">compose 7% of the workers</a> in the Israeli labor market as a whole, 24% of workers in the agricultural sector and 60% in the construction sector.</p>
<p>The non-citizen Palestinian workers commuted daily from the West Bank and Gaza, controlled by a <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=25698">regime of permits</a> and regulations.</p>
<p>When the first Palestinian uprising, or intifada, began in 1987, some members of the Israeli public came to see such workers as a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2547185">security risk</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/oslo-accords-30-years-on-the-dream-of-a-two-state-solution-seems-further-away-than-ever-213003">1993 Oslo Accords</a>, which sought to foment “separation” between Israelis and Palestinians, further pushed Israel to minimize the dependency on non-citizen Palestinian workers.</p>
<p>To make up for the shortfall, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362022418_On_the_Establishment_of_Agricultural_Migration_Industry_in_Israel%27s_Countryside">Israeli employers</a> convinced the government to vastly expand the recruitment of temporary workers to take their place. In addition to Thailand, countries including China, India, Nepal, the Philippines, Romania and Turkey spotted an opportunity and allowed Israeli employers to recruit within their borders. By 2003, migrant workers <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/remi/2691">made up 10% of the labor force</a> in Israel.</p>
<h2>Creating marginal workers</h2>
<p>Migrant workers in Israel, like their counterparts the world over, have long since been <a href="https://www.trafflab.org/_files/ugd/11e1f0_861945c9ea904d57a359c89d44424869.pdf">vulnerable to exploitation</a>.</p>
<p>Many of their origin countries did not demand a commitment to secure their citizens’ rights in the form of a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4168983">bilateral labor recruitment agreement</a>. And workers migrating via <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1350463042000227380">private recruitment</a> channels had to pay thousands of dollars in illegal “sign-up” fees, causing them to begin their journeys deep in debt. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Israeli government policies have attempted to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jols.12366">keep migrants outside of society by confining</a> them to specific industries, obligating them to leave the country upon completion of their labor contract, excluding them from the <a href="https://www.kavlaoved.org.il/en/a-land-devouring-its-workers-neglect-and-violations-of-migrant-agricultural-workers-right-to-health-in-israel/">public health system</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/socpro/article-abstract/63/3/373/2468875?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false">prohibiting</a> them from marrying or engaging in romantic relations while in Israel.</p>
<p>And authorities have paid little attention to labor standards, leaving farmworkers, for example, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/21/raw-deal/abuse-thai-workers-israels-agricultural-sector">vulnerable</a> to <a href="https://www.academia.edu/42386415/Giving_them_the_slip_Israeli_employers_strategic_falsification_of_pay_slips_to_disguise_the_violation_of_Thai_farmworkers_right_to_the_minimum_wage">wage theft</a>, terrible housing and exposure to pesticides without proper protection. </p>
<p>Under pressure from the U.S. government and Israeli civil society, over the past decade Israel began to sign <a href="https://www.cimi-eng.org/_files/ugd/5d35de_16d441738d06413184ba6dfa94cb0135.pdf">bilateral agreements</a> with countries sending migrants. These eliminated exorbitant recruitment fees, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167016">even if they failed</a> to meaningfully improve labor conditions. </p>
<p>Even so, the number of migrant workers has <a href="https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/generalpage/foreign_workers_stats/he/zarim2022.pdf">grown slowly</a> but steadily. In 2022, a total of 73,000 migrants in Israel worked as caregivers, in addition to nearly 50,000 in the construction and agriculture sectors combined. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man stands in a bombs shelter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579974/original/file-20240305-26-efvsos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Thai worker takes shelter in an underground bunker in Metula, Israel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thai-workers-take-shelter-in-an-underground-bunker-after-news-photo/1720607203?adppopup=true">Marcus Yam/ LA Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Yet these migrants did not obviate the need to also have <a href="https://kavlaoved.org.il/en/areasofactivity/palestinian-workers/">Palestinian labor</a> in the mix. By Oct. 7, 2023, about 100,000 Palestinian workers crossed the border daily from Gaza and the West Bank.</p>
<h2>In harm’s way</h2>
<p>Since Oct. 7, Israeli authorities have ended those Palestinians’ work permits and tried to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-plans-bring-more-foreign-workers-construction-sector-report-2024-01-01/">recruit thousands of new workers</a> to the fields and construction sites to make up for the shortfall. </p>
<p>Malawi, a country that <a href="https://www.academia.edu/8987110/Independent_Africans_Migration_from_Colonial_Malawi_to_South_Africa_c_1935_1961">came to depend</a> on migrants’ economic remittances decades before Thailand did, has sent 700 farmworkers and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/malawi-parliament-allows-labor-export-to-israel-/7490863.html">promises</a> another 9,000 on the way – notwithstanding <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLjNqFY4_Dk">criticism</a> from voices within the African nation itself. </p>
<p>In India, which had long sent caregivers to Israel, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a href="https://www.bwint.org/cms/india-unions-denounce-govt-plan-to-send-migrant-construction-workers-to-israel-3017">ignored internal criticism</a> and sent Israel more workers in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack, including <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/who-was-pat-nibin-maxwell-indian-from-kerala-killed-as-hezbollah-launches-airstrikes-in-israel-11709631189269.html">Pat Nibin Maxwell</a>, the man killed in the March 4 Hezbollah attack.</p>
<p>Workers like Maxwell are now being sent to work near the borders of Lebanon and Gaza, laboring in agricultural communities vulnerable to Hamas and Hezbollah attacks that have been <a href="https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/2024-03-04/ty-article/0000018e-09d0-d6be-afff-4dd174310000">depleted by the evacuation</a> of Israeli residents.</p>
<p>Though foreign governments are able to guarantee their citizens few protections in Israel, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/17/1229525320/india-israel-hamas-war-jobs-migrant-workers">thousands have queued up</a> in their home countries in search of a contract. </p>
<p>Once in Israel, they join the vast majority of migrant workers who have elected to remain in the country despite the Oct. 7 attack and its aftermath.</p>
<p>Like millions of migrant workers the world over in search of economic progress or survival, they have calculated, for now, that earning higher wages abroad is worth taking significant personal risks. </p>
<p>While helping keep the Israeli economy running during wartime, these migrant workers remain in the path of rockets – as the death of Pat Nibin Maxwell has illustrated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shahar Shoham previously worked at Physicians for Human Rights-Israel </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Weise does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The contours of the Middle East conflict have long influenced Israel’s migrant worker policy.Julie Weise, Associate Professor of History, University of OregonShahar Shoham, Doctoral Candidate in Global and Area Studies at the Institute for Asian and African Studies, Humboldt University of BerlinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249642024-03-04T11:31:11Z2024-03-04T11:31:11ZAlbanese to announce $2 billion financing facility to boost economic relations with Southeast Asia<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will unveil a suite of financial and other incentives to boost Australia’s economic relations with Southeast Asia when he addresses the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit’s CEO forum on Tuesday. </p>
<p>A $2 billion Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility will provide loans, guarantees, equity and insurance for increasing Australian trade and investment in the region, especially supporting its transition to clean energy and developing infrastructure. </p>
<p>The facility will be managed by Export Finance Australia. </p>
<p>Australia will also provide $140 million over four years to extend the current <a href="https://www.partnershipsforinfrastructure.org">Partnerships for Infrastructure Program</a>, which has been operating since 2021. This funding will assist Southeast Asian nations to improve their infrastructure development and hasten reforms to attract more diverse infrastructure financing. </p>
<p>The emphasis in this program has been on helping partners in the areas of transport, clean energy and telecommunications. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-take-this-for-granted-why-the-asean-australia-relationship-needs-a-jolt-of-youthful-leadership-224501">'We take this for granted': why the ASEAN-Australia relationship needs a jolt of youthful leadership</a>
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<p>Among other measures, regional “landing pads” in Jakarta, Indonesia, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, will support Australian businesses to increase exports of technology services to the region. </p>
<p>Ten “business champions” – senior Australian business leaders – are to strengthen investment and trade ties with each of the Southeast Asian countries. </p>
<p>Business validity visas will be lengthened from three to five years, and the ten-year <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-listing/visitor-600/frequent-traveller-stream">Frequent Traveller Scheme</a> will be extended to eligible ASEAN countries and Timor-Leste.</p>
<p>In his speech to 100 Australian and Southeast Asian CEOs, Albanese will say that in 2022 Australia’s two-way trade with ASEAN members passed $178 billion. That was more than Australia’s trade with Japan or the United States. Australia’s two-way investment with the region was some $307 billion.</p>
<p>“But we want to do more – to support regional growth and to realise mutual benefits. To deepen our ties and to boost the skills of our people,” Albanese says in his speech, released ahead of delivery.</p>
<p>“There is so much untapped potential,” the PM says, but “not unlimited time. </p>
<p>"We must act together, and we must act now.” </p>
<p>He nominates specific areas for action, which are </p>
<ul>
<li><p>to use the digital economy to support the region’s social and economic development </p></li>
<li><p>to turn our commodities into higher value exports in competitive global markets</p></li>
<li><p>to back women’s equality in business leadership, and </p></li>
<li><p>to leverage our expertise and technology to meet the region’s energy needs. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>“We want to ensure businesses in Southeast Asia can access the markets that are available in Australia including in infrastructure and the clean energy transition.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/asean-australia-special-summit-2024-keynote-address-maritime-cooperation-forum">Maritime Cooperation Forum</a> at the summit the region faced “the most confronting circumstances […] in decades”.</p>
<p>“We face destabilising, provocative and coercive actions, including unsafe conduct at sea and in the air and militarisation of disputed features.</p>
<p>"We know that military power is expanding, but measures to constrain military conflict are not – and there are few concrete mechanisms for averting it,” Wong said.</p>
<p>Australia recognised “ASEAN centrality as key to the region’s stability and security, and we are committed to supporting ASEAN’s leadership,” she said.</p>
<p>She said Australia was working with ASEAN countries “to increase resilience to coercion, and to ensure waterways that serve us all remain open and accessible”.</p>
<p>Wong announced a further $64 million over four years, including $40 million in new funding, for enhancing Australia’s <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/new-funding-maritime-partnerships-southeast-asia">Southeast Asian maritime partnerships</a>. </p>
<p>A further $222.5 million will go to supporting “resilience in the Mekong subregion”. </p>
<p>“A second phase of the Mekong-Australia Partnership will build on our existing partnerships to invest in water security, climate change resilience, combatting transnational crime, and strengthening sub-regional leadership.”</p>
<p>On Monday, Albanese hosted Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim for an official visit to Australia.</p>
<p>At their joint news conference, Anwar stressed that Malaysia sought good relations with both the United States and China. </p>
<p>Malaysia was “fiercely independent”. It remained an important friend to the United States and Australia, but that “should not preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbours, precisely China […] We do not have a problem with China,” Anwar said.</p>
<h2>Update: Albanese on Tuesday announced the 10 Business Champions</h2>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The prime minister said ‘there is so much untapped potential’ in the region of 650 million people to the north of Australia, but ‘not unlimited time.’Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219362024-03-01T13:34:06Z2024-03-01T13:34:06ZMy Malaysia ordeal shows how religion can fuse with populist nationalism to silence dissent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578729/original/file-20240228-16-yogbdr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C5720%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysian Islamists rally in favor of sharia law on Nov. 20, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/malaysia-islamist-party-supporters-held-a-rally-to-protect-news-photo/1793715130?adppopup=true">Zahim Mohd/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I hadn’t expected my book tour in Malaysia to end with a confrontation with men who identified themselves as police in a Kuala Lumpur airport.</p>
<p>I arrived in the Muslim-majority country in early January 2024 to promote <a href="https://bookshop.irfront.net/product/islam-autoritarianisme-dan-kemunduran-bangsa-suatu-perbandingan-global-dan-pensejarahan/">the Malay translation</a> of my book “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/islam-authoritarianism-and-underdevelopment-global-and-historical-comparison?format=PB">Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment</a>,” an academic analysis of the political and socioeconomic crises facing many Muslim societies today.</p>
<p>But my visit attracted unwarranted <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/692340">attention</a>. Some conservatives and Islamists labeled me in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/share/p/osCx6x9uHoeziJ7a/?mibextid=I6gGtw">social media</a> a “<a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/22/im-a-practising-muslim-and-oppose-secularism-says-academic/">liberal</a>” – a term used by <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2015/01/18/doubting-religious-authorities-part-of-liberalism-jakim-dg-says/821833">Malaysia’s federal agency</a> administering Islamic affairs to denote those against the official religion, Sunni Islam. This was followed by <a href="https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/480031">the cancellation</a> of my book launch <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/06/book-launch-by-us-academic-cancelled-after-pressure-from-conservatives/">event</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, I continued my program of other talks. Two men who identified themselves as <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693049">police officers came</a> to my last event and questioned my publisher.</p>
<p>The following day, the same men <a href="https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02qwLXFcVopg33CF879Ri9av8AJ9GvGQzbqZqcBF3Gi9jgZqSsmEM19kewCoUkAD4ul&id=100012201094873">interrogated me and tried to seize my passport</a> in Kuala Lumpur International Airport as I was due to embark on a flight to Pakistan. Concerned over my safety, I canceled a series of talks planned for <a href="https://thefridaytimes.com/11-Jan-2024/thinkfest-2024-set-to-bring-dynamic-lineup-of-academics-and-thought-leaders-to-lahore">Lahore</a> and Islamabad and returned home to the United States.</p>
<p>When the incident became <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-scholar-claims-he-feared-arrest-at-klia/">national news</a>, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-police-commission-ipcc-misconduct-4050961">Malaysia’s</a> police inspector-general <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-based-academic-not-on-police-radar-says-igp/">denied that officers were sent to confront me</a>. Yet, a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=685001657151111&id=100069238491031&paipv=0&eav=AfYy1uNmtR1OBKb9QhQJU0WcL8AMkNYPwJM-g8bNXTmx3MHzysTnZX362yo7MfSNK14&_rdr">human rights group</a> has called for a <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/14/ask-igp-to-name-cop-who-approached-scholar-at-klia-ngo-tells-ipcc">more thorough investigation</a> into <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/693137">my case</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/secularism-and-state-policies-toward-religion/10F825409B3B7E7C3B35C443B1B6FF17">religion and politics in comparative perspective</a>, I don’t see my ordeal as an isolated example of religious intolerance in Muslim-majority countries. Instead, it taps into something wider.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw8QL6elUSI&t=17s">My research</a> shows that there is a rising <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0w4DikCK4Y&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=31">global trend</a> against dissenting and minority religious views. Analyzing this trend is crucial to understand why right-wing populist leaders are now ruling diverse countries, such as <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/religion-nationalism-and-populism-turkey-under-akp">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-18/putin-appeals-to-russian-church-as-dangers-to-his-regime-grow">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/28/israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-democracy-protests-donald-trump">Israel</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/canada/modi-canada-hindu-nationalism.html">India</a>, and how they may come to power in other places, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/donald-trump-allies-christian-nationalism-00142086">the United States</a>. </p>
<p>All these countries have recently experienced the combination of three movements: religious conservatism, nationalism and populism.</p>
<h2>Religion and nationalism: Old enemies, new allies</h2>
<p>In both Christian and Muslim history, nationalism emerged in reaction to the religious establishment. Scholars of nationalism such as <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/1126-imagined-communities">Benedict Anderson</a> explain its origins in Europe after the 16th century by the expansion of vernacular languages, national churches and nation-states at the expense of Latin, the Vatican and divinely ordained dynasties. </p>
<p>Similarly, in many Muslim-majority countries, there was a tension between <a href="https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-secularism-in-the-arab-world.html">Islamists and nationalists</a>. The Islamists pushed for traditional religious education and Islamic law, and emphasized global Islamic identity. Nationalists, however, modernized schools, established secular laws and stressed national identity.</p>
<p>This tension continued throughout the 20th century in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7312/kuru15932">Turkey</a>, where nationalists led by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1ch7679">Mustafa Kemal Ataturk</a> founded a secular republic in the 1920s. There was a similar struggle in Egypt between the Islamist <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-two-islamic-groups-fell-from-power-to-persecution-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-and-turkeys-gulenists-120800">Muslim Brotherhood</a> and the nationalist military officers who built the republic under the leadership of secularist <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvc7728b">Gamal Abdel Nasser</a> in the 1950s.</p>
<p>Today, however, religious and nationalist forces are often political allies. For a decade, such an alliance has existed in Russia between the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/9/far-from-harmless-patriarch-kirill-backs-putins-war-but-at-what-cost">Orthodox Patriarch Kirill and President Vladimir Putin</a>. Laws punishing <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prosecuting-insults-to-religious-feelings/28678284.html#">insults to religious feelings</a> have been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22090308">expanded</a>, and <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2017/04/14/patriarch-kirill-from-ambitious-reformer-to-state-hardliner-a57725">Orthodox Christian values</a> returned to school curricula.</p>
<p>Analysts define <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/world/europe/ukraine-war-russian-orthodox-church.html">Kirill’s strong support</a> for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reflection of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-03-29/russian-orthodox-patriarch-offers-a-spiritual-defense-of-the-war-in-ukraine">the nationalist ideology they share</a>.</p>
<p>In Turkey, the main religious authority is <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/Home/Index/">Diyanet</a>, a government agency that controls mosques and pays the salaries of their imams. Although the Diyanet <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/CATS_Working_Paper_Nr_2__Guenter_Seufert.pdf">was established by Ataturk</a> to serve secular nationalist policies, it has become <a href="https://360info.org/how-religion-still-means-power-in-secular-turkey/">an important pillar</a> of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which mixes Islamism with nationalism. While Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party represents Islamism, its coalition partner for a decade, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/in-turkeys-elections-nationalism-is-the-real-winner">Nationalist Action Party</a>, has an explicitly nationalist agenda. </p>
<p>In the Arab world, there was a wrangling between Nasser’s secular nationalist Egypt and the Islamic state of Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/29/opinion/international/nasr-islamic-comrades-no-more.html">in the 1950s and 1960s</a>. No longer. Egypt, which has moved to Islamism with a constitution referring to sharia <a href="https://blog-iacl-aidc.org/2021-posts/29-6-21-the-egyptian-supreme-constitutional-courts-interpretation-of-the-islamic-sharia-as-a-constitutional-check-mrbng">as the source of law since 1980</a>, and Saudi Arabia, which has recently become <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mbs-behind-saudi-nationalist-surge-by-bernard-haykel-2023-09">less Islamist and more nationalist</a> through Crown Prince <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2020/05/05/the-new-populist-nationalism-in-saudi-arabia-imagined-utopia-by-royal-decree/">Mohammed bin Salman</a>’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HfRhfHwUc&t=744s">reforms</a>, are now <a href="https://apnews.com/article/egypt-saudi-arabia-sissi-bin-salman-economy-0ae05c6dbe715433015db07ef97519bb">regional allies</a>.</p>
<h2>The age of populist leaders</h2>
<p>What explains this transformation in the relationship between religion and nationalism? I believe that populism is the glue that brings them together.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/populism-concept-defines-our-age">Populists</a> often claim that they are defending “the people” against both elites and minorities, especially immigrants.</p>
<p>Recently, populist nationalist leaders have used religious symbols to mobilize their followers. For example, in 2016, <a href="https://unherd.com/2022/02/putins-spiritual-destiny/">Putin</a> established an <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/in-political-move-russian-patriarch-blesses-putin-backed-paris-church/a-36633675">Orthodox Cathedral in Paris</a> on the banks of the Seine River, near the Eiffel Tower. And in 2020, Erdogan declared the <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/hagia-sophia-islamism-and-secularism-in-turkey">Hagia Sophia a mosque again</a> – it had been a church for over a millennium until the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul in 1453 and a mosque for about 500 years until Ataturk made it a museum.</p>
<p>Most recently, on Jan. 22, 2024, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/22/modi-inaugurates-hindu-temple-on-site-of-razed-mosque-in-india">a Hindu temple in Ayodhya</a> on the site of a mosque that had been built in 1528 but <a href="https://thewire.in/communalism/babri-masjid-the-timeline-of-a-demolition">violently destroyed</a> in 1992 by Hindu radicals, after a century of controversies over the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man walks in a white robe in front of people dressed in orange and a temple." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opens a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndiaElectionTemple/d3dde6bfe9034a4da87c29bfc954b254/photo?Query=Modi%20temple&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=424&currentItemNo=46">AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And while former U.S. President Donald Trump did not establish a cathedral, he did give a photo-op holding up <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/06/the-inconceivable-strangeness-of-trumps-bible-photo-op.html">a Bible at a crucial moment</a> – during the Black Lives Matter protests in June 2020 – as a sign of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/us/politics/trump-holds-bible-photo.html">his religious politics against the protesters</a>.</p>
<p>In such acts, populist leaders aim to incorporate religion and nationalism to serve their political agenda. Yet, for religious minorities, this symbolism may imply that they are secondary citizens.</p>
<h2>The future of religious minorities</h2>
<p>In several countries, the alliances between religious forces and populist nationalists have threatened <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYDUnk5RSj4&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=8&t=263s">minority rights</a>.</p>
<p>One such case is <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bbb229a29f2cc31b47fa99c/t/5c862a2053450a49a40c191d/1552296484138/Malaysia-Freedom-of-religion-brief-Advocacy-Analysis-brief-2019-ENG.pdf">Malaysia</a>, an <a href="https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/key-findings-population-and-housing-census-of-malaysia-2020-administrative-district">ethnically and religiously diverse</a> country, where Muslim Malays are the majority, while Buddhist, Christian and Hindu communities constitute a third of society.</p>
<p>As I learned during my recent visit, Islam is at the center of political debates about nationalism in Malaysia. For example, on Jan. 13, 2024, Mahathir Mohamad, the once powerful former prime minister, said ethnically Chinese and Indian citizens of Malaysia are not fully “<a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1000806/tun-m-believes-malaysian-indians-chinese-not-completely-loyal-country">loyal to the country</a>” and offered <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693114">assimilation</a> as a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1001858/anwar-dr-mahathir-all-non-malays-are-disloyal-except-his-cronies">solution</a>.</p>
<p>Assimilation of ethnic minorities into the majority may not be limited by language and culture, because the country’s constitution connects Islam and the Malay identity, stating: “<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Malaysia_2007">Malay means a person who professes the religion of Islam</a>, habitually speaks the Malay language, conforms to Malay custom.” </p>
<p>For Malays and converts, leaving Islam officially is not an option – both <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/02/27/sarawak-shariah-court-can-hear-apostasy-cases-rules-apex-court/">civil courts</a> and <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/07/24/judicial-review-needed-as-shariah-court-dismissal-of-womans-apostasy-bid-irrational-appellate-court-told/81473">sharia courts</a> have rejected that in various cases.</p>
<p>The strong connection between <a href="https://fulcrum.sg/islamisation-in-malaysia-beyond-umno-and-pas/">religion and Malay nationalism</a> has helped Islamic authorities, such as <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/08/27/sis-fails-to-quash-selangor-fatwa/">sharia courts</a> and <a href="https://southeastasiaglobe.com/moral-policing-a-rise-in-state-religious-enforcement-is-shaking-multicultural-malaysia/">sharia police</a>, expand their influence. <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/the-rise-and-rise-of-malaysias-nationalist-right-wing/">Increasing Islamization</a> of Malaysian government, however, is <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-s-pas-has-tough-task-to-woo-non-muslim-voters-analysts-say">a worry for non-Muslim minorities</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Muslim minorities are worried about their rights in several non-Muslim countries ruled by populist nationalists.</p>
<p>According to democracy watchdog Freedom House, in India, Modi’s government has pursued <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/india/freedom-world/2023">discriminatory policies against the Muslim minority</a> of about <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/india-muslims-marginalized-population-bjp-modi">200 million people</a>. These policies have included <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/02/india-authorities-must-immediately-stop-unjust-targeted-demolition-of-muslim-properties/">the destruction</a> of <a href="https://scroll.in/bulletins/340/introducing-the-smart-shopper-get-deals-on-150000-brands-and-support-independent-journalism">Muslim properties</a> to the extent that bulldozers became “<a href="https://time.com/6303571/how-bulldozers-became-a-symbol-of-anti-muslim-sentiment-in-india/">Hindu-nationalist</a>” and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/nyregion/bulldozer-indian-parade-new-jersey.html">“anti-Muslim” symbols in India</a>.</p>
<p>In the United States, Trump’s anti-immigrant policies included the so-called “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org.uk/licence-discriminate-trumps-muslim-refugee-ban">Muslim ban</a>” – <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/immigrants-rights/the-enduring-harms-of-trumps-muslim-ban">an executive order</a> that barred nationals of certain Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States. While campaigning for the upcoming 2024 elections, Trump <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-bring-back-travel-ban-muslim-countries/">vowed to bring back the ban in an expanded manner</a>.</p>
<p>As the experience of many countries around the world shows, the trend of advancing a religious-nationalist agenda restricts minority voices. This trend constitutes a major challenge to the ideals of democracy and equality of citizens worldwide.</p>
<p>These concerns are also personal for me: As a Muslim American, I want to both keep enjoying equal citizenship in the United States and give talks about Islam in Muslim-majority countries without being harassed by the police.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmet T. Kuru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Religion and nationalism were once ideologies at odds. Now, they are increasingly bedfellows, with populism often the glue.Ahmet T. Kuru, Professor of Political Science, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210672024-02-07T13:10:59Z2024-02-07T13:10:59ZIndonesians head to polls amid concerns over declining democracy, election integrity and vote buying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572044/original/file-20240129-28-cofmi2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C603%2C5498%2C3050&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gearing up for the election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/058ccdda469046b4a05ab184f9fe9154/photo?Query=indonesia%20election&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1572&currentItemNo=3">Achmad Ibrahim/Associated Press</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a record year for <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-4-billion-people-are-eligible-to-vote-in-an-election-in-2024-is-this-democracys-biggest-test-220837">elections around the world</a>, Indonesia’s Feb. 14, 2024, vote is set to be one of the largest – and it will be one of the sternest tests for democracy’s progress.</p>
<p>Voters are expected to turn out in record numbers to choose between some 20,000 national, provincial and district parliamentary representatives in what will be the world’s largest single-day election – unlike, say, in the U.S., Indonesia does not allow votes to be cast in advance.</p>
<p>While the scale of the election might seem to suggest a vibrant state of democracy in Indonesia, multiple factors – including a voting system susceptible to money politics and vote buying, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-campaign-violation-gibran-prabowo-mahfud-muhaimin-4024331">alleged violations of election rules</a>, the sheer number of down-ballot candidates, and a cacophony of political messages on social media – make it difficult for voters to know what they are voting for and to effectively express their preferences. </p>
<p>Indonesia’s General Elections Commission reports that as many as <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1743779/over-204-million-voters-in-2024-general-elections-electoral-roll-kpu-declares">204 million voters</a> are enrolled for the election, with about 114 million of them under 40 years of age. Polls say the <a href="https://s3-csis-web.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/doc/Final_Rilis_Survei_CSIS_26_September_2022.pdf?download=1">top issues for younger voters</a> include unaffordable basic goods, lack of employment opportunities, high poverty rates, expensive health services and poor education quality and service.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there are concerns among many observers that Indonesia’s democracy has been <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2023/03/23/is-indonesias-democracy-really-backsliding.html">backsliding in recent years</a>.</p>
<h2>Southeast Asia’s largest economy</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JhojdBgAAAAJ&hl=en">As an expert</a> on Indonesia’s international relations, I see how the election has implications far beyond the sprawling archipelago’s borders and comes at a crucial time. Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy but faces getting caught in what economists call the <a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/escaping-middle-income-trap-innovate-or-perish#:%7E:text=The%20middle%2Dincome%20trap%20captures,productivity%20is%20relatively%20too%20low">middle-income trap</a>, where its wages are too high but productivity too low to be competitive. Indonesia also plays a crucial geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific. Its growing <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/05/13/why-and-how-indonesia-must-reduce-its-economic-dependence-on-china/">economic dependence on China</a> and regional tensions over <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-chinese-warships-near-miss-in-taiwan-strait-hints-at-ongoing-troubled-diplomatic-waters-despite-chatter-about-talks-207099">territorial disputes in the South China Sea</a> have <a href="https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/when-goods-cross-borders/indonesia-should-be-at-the-heart-of-us-indo-pacific-policy">foreign policy observers and investors</a> watching the election closely.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A group of men stand smiling and waving." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572047/original/file-20240130-21-38gy0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidates. from left, Anies Baswedan and running mate Muhaimin Iskandar; Prabowo Subianto and running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka; and Ganjar Pranowo with running mate Mahfud Mahmodin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/0fcba3a1931049e0a72438f9745f3994/photo?Query=President%20Widodo%27s%20son,%20Gibran%20Rakabuming,&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=50&currentItemNo=21">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. government sees Indonesia’s democracy as critical to regional stability, and at least for the last two decades, <a href="https://id.usembassy.gov/president-joseph-r-biden-and-president-joko-widodo-announce-the-u-s-indonesia-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/">U.S.-Indonesia relations</a> have been built on shared values of democracy. Yet the election takes place against a backdrop of increasing democratic fragility.</p>
<p>Telltale signs include government attempts <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1253615/higher-education-ministry-contacts-rectors-over-student-protests">to restrict critics and dissent</a> in a show of executive overreach, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/08/chief-justice-demoted-over-gibran-ruling.html">changes in election laws</a> to tilt the playing field toward favored candidates and so-called “<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/23/indonesian-leaders-son-brushes-off-nepo-baby-tag-in-solid-debate-showing">nepo babies</a>,” and voter <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">intimidation</a>.</p>
<p>Voters will cast their ballots for one of <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-election-anies-baswedan-ganjar-pranowo-prabowo-subianto-4031946">the three presidential candidates</a> vying to be the next president: <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/30/the-economist-revises-down-prabowos-electability-to-47.html">Prabowo Subianto</a>, a former military officer and politician who is running for president for the third time; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesian-presidential-hopeful-ganjar-projects-grassroots-appeal-popularity-2023-12-13/">Ganjar Pranowo</a>, a former governor of Central Java; and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-presidential-hopeful-promises-change-end-patronage-politics-2024-01-05/">Anies Baswedan</a>, an academic, and former culture and education minister and governor of Jakarta. </p>
<p>The three candidates <a href="https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20231026141749-37-483935/visi-misi-ganjar-mahfud-anies-imin-download-link-pdf">all promise</a> to improve living standards, accelerate economic growth and infrastructure development, protect Indonesia’s resources against foreign exploitation and territorial sovereignty, promote environmental sustainability, advance human rights and democracy, and eliminate corruption.</p>
<p>Despite their similar campaign talking points, there are some differences. On trade, for example, Subianto favors protectionism. Baswedan and Pranowo support a market-based approach and a balanced approach between protecting national industries and fostering foreign investment.</p>
<p>On one of the main issues of the day, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/28/indonesia-to-move-capital-from-jakarta-to-nusantara-but-it-wont-be-easy.html">relocation of the capital city of Indonesia</a>, Baswedan is the most critical of the candidates. He has <a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/election-willdetermine-new-capital-fate-01262024140057.html">vowed to review the project</a>, but is unlikely to stop the move even if he wins, as the plan is already formalized into law.</p>
<h2>Massive spending and vote buying</h2>
<p>While the presence of many candidates – for example, there are 300 in <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2024/01/11/jakarta-sees-tight-competition-for-2024-legislative-race.html">Jakarta</a> alone, including celebrities and cabinet ministers from 17 parties, vying for 21 seats in the House of Representatives – could suggest a vibrant democracy, the <a href="https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/12/07/en-biaya-politik-caleg-hadapi-pemilu-2024-membengkak">massive spending</a> among them increases the risk of vote buying. Furthermore, due to the current <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/269187/kpu-committed-to-open-list-proportional-representation-system-dpr">open-list</a> proportional voting systems, candidates must compete against their party peers to win a seat. This system creates a fierce competition among candidates and increases the chance of vote buying. Political scientist <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/rof2024/burhanuddin-muhtadi/">Burhanuddin Muhtadi</a> argues that the problem affects 10% of voters and may be enough of an issue to sway the outcome of elections. In addition, celebrity candidates and those with a large social media following and deep pockets will have an easier time gaining support.</p>
<p>A glut of campaign messaging does not lead to a more informed citizenry. Instead, citizens are heavily targeted by <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2024/01/indonesia-election/index.html?shell">social media with populist overtones</a>. And despite the digital bombardment, there is actually little information about party platforms, candidate track records or policy details – a problem when the sheer number of candidates is so large.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Political candidates shake hands in Jakarta, Indonesia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572051/original/file-20240130-19-olefie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, left, with running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndonesiaElection/91f8aacec6cd40e981f597776e81744f/photo?Query=indonesia%20joko%20and%20son&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=95&currentItemNo=2">Tatan Syuflana/Associated Press</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Financial irregularities tied to election funding have also dogged parties across the political spectrum, leading the <a href="https://www.idea.int/node/683">Association for Election and Democracy</a> to cite a worrisome trend of citizens coming to see money politics as acceptable within a competitive democracy. The other challenge during the election campaign is the <a href="https://kemitraan.or.id/press-release/buruknya-akuntabilitas-laporan-dana-kampanye-problem-serius-pengaturan-penegakan-aturan-dan-komitmen-para-capres-cawapres/">lack of accountability and transparency</a> for campaign funding.</p>
<h2>A slide toward autocracy</h2>
<p>The decline in the quality of Indonesia’s democracy has been years in the making. A 2023 report by <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">V-Dem Democracy Institute</a> highlights several factors in its slide toward autocracy. Limited freedom to publicly criticize the government is one reason, and numerous examples of intimidation and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/10/16/students-continue-to-protest-jobs-law-alleged-police-brutality.html">attacks on students</a>, academics and <a href="https://en.tempo.co/read/1818020/stop-intimidation-against-activists">activists</a> who are critical of the administration have been documented.</p>
<p><a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/607612">Strategic election manipulation</a> is another form of backsliding, encompassing a range of activity geared toward tilting the electoral playing field in favor of incumbents. In a notable case, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/jokowi-indonesias-kingmaker-works-keep-influence-after-election-2023-10-14/">President Joko Widodo’s</a> 36-year-old son, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3249354/indonesia-election-2024-gibran-resorts-gotcha-questions-jargon-vp-debate-bid-trip-rivals">Gibran Rakabuming Raka</a>, mayor of Solo, was cleared by a constitutional court ruling to run for vice president. The ruling, issued by a court led by the president’s brother, stated that the age restriction for presidential candidates that they should be at least 40 years old does not apply to those who have served as mayors, regents or governors. While Widodo claims not to have intervened in the ruling, there is a clear benefit to his family.</p>
<p>Electoral intimidation is a problem disproportionately affecting civil servants and people in poor neighborhoods. <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">Power brokers</a> have reportedly told some civil servants to vote for particular candidates, intimating that refusal will mean being asked to serve in some remote places in Indonesia. People in areas with high poverty rates <a href="https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3886224/tpd-amin-beberkan-potensi-intimidasi-jelang-pemilu">have allegedly</a> received threats that cash transfer programs that would benefit the community will be revoked unless they vote for certain candidates. </p>
<p>All of this takes place as younger Indonesians <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/10/10/analysis-csis-survey-shows-young-voters-want-change-not-prabowo.html">look for change and better lives</a>. Their hopes for a democratic future where issues important to them can be solved, as well as securing Indonesia’s role on the global stage as a democratic partner ensuring regional stability, ride on the outcome of the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angguntari Ceria Sari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As many as 204 million Indonesians are registered to vote in what will be the world’s largest single-day election in 2024.Angguntari Ceria Sari, Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik ParahyanganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209452024-01-23T05:10:48Z2024-01-23T05:10:48ZNavigating algorithmic bias amid rapid AI development in Southeast Asia<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer an emerging technology in Southeast Asia. </p>
<p>Countries across the region are aggressively adopting AI systems for everything from <a href="https://www.frontier-enterprise.com/ai-in-public-safety-a-southeast-asia-perspective/">smart city surveillance</a> to <a href="https://fintechcircle.com/insights/data-ai-lending-in-south-east-asia/">credit scoring apps</a>, promising more financial inclusion. </p>
<p>But there are growing rumblings that this headlong rush towards automation is outpacing ethical checks and balances. Looming over glowing promises of precision and objectivity is the spectre of algorithmic bias. </p>
<p>AI bias refers to cases where automated systems produce <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3457607?casa_token=6zTVIyYKU6QAAAAA:SHw5alyYksbmGu4NDhHk98Pz7CSnbZSZccSRhQXbN4LhJK1s3wY_NnCliBreXKZ5oc02255ZQeSCRw">discriminatory results</a> due to technical limitations or issues with the underlying data or development process. This can propagate unfair prejudices <a href="https://unu.edu/macau/blog-post/developing-inclusive-ai-policy-southeast-asia">against vulnerable demographic groups</a>.</p>
<p>For instance, a facial recognition tool trained <a href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/facial-recognition-technologys-enduring-threat-to-civil-liberties/#:%7E:text=Problematically%2C%20the%20faces%20used%20to,and%20especially%20women%20of%20color.">predominantly on Caucasian faces</a> may have drastically lower accuracy at identifying Southeast Asian individuals. </p>
<p>As Southeast Asia attempts to navigate the new terrain of automated decision-making, this article delves into the swelling chorus of dissent questioning whether Southeast Asia’s AI ascent could leave marginalised communities even further behind.</p>
<h2>How bias creates discrimination</h2>
<p>In Southeast Asia, the prevalence of AI bias is evident in various forms, such as flawed speech and image recognition, as well as <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Southeast+Asia+skewed+credit+risk+assessments+AI&oq=Southeast+Asia+skewed+credit+risk+assessments+AI&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRiPAjIHCAQQIRiPAtIBCDU2NjhqMGo5qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#:%7E:text=The%20Prospects%20and,uploads%20%E2%80%BA%202021/01">biased credit risk assessments</a>.</p>
<p>These algorithmic biases often lead to unjust outcomes, disproportionately affecting minority ethnic groups. </p>
<p>A notable example from Indonesia demonstrates this. An AI-based job recommendation system <a href="https://kr-asia.com/the-ethics-of-ai-navigating-the-moral-landscape-in-southeast-asia">unintentionally excluded women</a> from certain job opportunities, a result of historical biases ingrained in the data. </p>
<p>The diversity of the region, with its array of languages, skin tones and cultural nuances, often gets overlooked or inaccurately represented in AI models that rely on Western-centric training data. </p>
<p>Consequently, these AI systems, which are often perceived as neutral and objective, inadvertently perpetuate real-world inequalities rather than eliminating them.</p>
<h2>Ethical implications</h2>
<p>The rapid evolution of technology in Southeast Asia presents significant ethical challenges in AI applications, due in large part to the breakneck pace at which automation and other advanced technologies are being adopted. </p>
<p>This rapid adoption <a href="https://asean.org/asean-initiates-regional-discussion-on-generative-ai-policy/">outpaces the development of ethical guidelines</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570545/original/file-20240122-21-ptg5ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regulatory frameworks lag behind the swift pace of technological implementation in Southeast Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Limited local involvement in AI development sidelines critical regional expertise and widens the democracy deficit</p>
<p>The “democracy deficit” refers to the lack of public participation in AI decision-making – facial recognition rolled out by governments without consulting impacted communities being one case. </p>
<p>For example, Indigenous groups like the <a href="https://theculturetrip.com/asia/philippines/articles/the-aeta-the-first-philippine-people#:%7E:text=In%20the%20Philippines%2C%20Aetas%20as,slash%2Dand%2Dburn%20farming.">Aeta in the Philippines</a> are already marginalised and could face particular threats from unchecked automation. Without data or input from rural Indigenous communities, they could be excluded from AI opportunities. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, biased data sets and algorithms risk exacerbating discrimination. The <a href="https://commons.princeton.edu/mg/the-high-colonial-age-1870-1914/">region’s colonial history</a> and continuous marginalisation of Indigenous communities casts <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/report-asia-and-the-pacific/">a significant shadow</a>. </p>
<p>The uncritical implementation of automated decision-making, without addressing underlying historical inequalities and the potential for AI to reinforce discriminatory patterns, presents a profound ethical concern. </p>
<p>Regulatory frameworks lag behind the swift pace of technological implementation, leaving vulnerable ethnic and rural communities to deal with harmful AI errors without recourse.</p>
<h2>Geopolitical dynamics</h2>
<p>Southeast Asia finds itself at a crucial juncture, strategically positioned at the heart of <a href="https://engagemedia.org/2022/excerpt-geopolitics-ai-southeast-asia/">AI advancements and geopolitical interests</a>. </p>
<p>Both the United States and China seemingly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to expand their influence in the region. </p>
<p>During President Biden’s 2023 trip to Vietnam, the US government revealed initiatives for increased collaboration and investment by American corporations, <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/planetary-politics/blog/what-will-ai-mean-for-asean/">including Microsoft, Nvidia and Google</a>, in Southeast Asian countries to gain access to data and engineering talent. This data and talent is seen as crucial for training advanced AI systems. </p>
<p>At the same time, China has been rapidly investing in digital infrastructure projects in the region through its <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/05/how-has-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-impacted-southeast-asian-countries-pub-91170">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, sparking concerns about <a href="https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2022/12/digital-silk-road-introduction/">technological colonialism</a>. </p>
<p>There are also worries that Southeast Asia may become a battleground for <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Southeast-Asia-s-digital-battle-Chinese-and-U.S.-Big-Tech-face-off-over-1tn-market">US–China AI competition</a>, escalating security tensions and risks of an AI arms race. </p>
<p>With major powers vying for economic, military and ideological influence, Southeast Asian nations face complex challenges in managing these multifaceted interests around AI. </p>
<p>Crafting policies that balance benefits and risks, while maintaining autonomy, will be critical.</p>
<h2>The path ahead: caution mixed with optimism</h2>
<p>Considering Southeast Asia’s immense diversity of ethnicity, languages and socio-cultural traditions, the region has both <a href="https://unu.edu/macau/blog-post/developing-inclusive-ai-policy-southeast-asia">unique vulnerabilities but also tremendous opportunities</a> regarding AI ethics. </p>
<p>Constructing more inclusive technological futures requires sustained collaboration across governments, companies and community groups. </p>
<p>No single prescription can “solve” algorithmic bias, but emphasising representation, accountability and transparency will point the way. </p>
<p>In Southeast Asia, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/ai-explosion-merits-regulation-rein-threats-experts-say-3625266">civil society groups</a> and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/artificial-intelligence-disinformation-and-the-2024-indonesian-elections/">scholars</a> are increasingly vocal about the need for guardrails on AI adoption, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/new-research-initiative-aims-to-build-large-language-ai-model-for-southeast-asia/">better representation in datasets</a> and protections against automated discrimination. </p>
<p>While there are growing number of local start-ups contributing to regional specific AI-based technologies, such as <a href="https://kata.ai/">Kata.AI</a> in Indonesian language, the first natural language processing algorithms in Indonesia, or <a href="https://bindez.com/">Bindez</a> in Myanmar, more is needed to ensure local experts contribute to nuanced AI system tailored for Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>To support this vision, <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/singapore-urged-to-fund-support-for-ai-adoption-and-decarbonization/">more funding</a> and collaboration should be fostered not only between ASEAN members, but also with global experts on AI technology. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, the path ahead necessitates vigilance. Technologies do not stand apart from the societies shaping them. </p>
<p>Therefore, in questioning pervasive assumptions encoded in AI systems, perhaps we move closer towards the emancipatory promise of automation. Ensuring all voices are heard, not just the privileged and powerful, remains vital even in our algorithmic age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nuurrianti Jalli tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>How should Southeast Asian countries manage algorithmic biases that often unfairly affect minority ethnic groups and women?Nuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice, School of Media and Strategic Communications, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213012024-01-19T13:40:58Z2024-01-19T13:40:58ZBeijing may have brokered a fragile truce in northern Myanmar – but it can’t mask China’s inability to influence warring parties<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570235/original/file-20240118-17-o51ffm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4514%2C3002&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the rebel Ta'ang National Liberation Army standing guard in Shan state, Myanmar.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-december-13-2023-shows-members-of-news-photo/1851374184?adppopup=true">STR/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-ceasefire-breaks-down-01172024054526.html">shaky agreement to end fighting</a> in northern Myanmar has served to highlight concerns in Beijing over the ongoing unrest – and the limits of <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/12/chinas-influence-increases-amid-myanmars-instability">China’s power to influence</a> the <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-violence-in-myanmar-is-worsening-amid-fierce-resistance-and-international-ambivalence-203646">ongoing civil war</a>.</p>
<p>On Jan. 12, 2024, China announced that it had <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3248278/china-brokers-myanmar-ceasefire-urges-junta-and-rebel-militia-exercise-maximum-restraint">brokered a cease-fire</a> between the Myanmar military and a trio of ethnic armies, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance.</p>
<p>There is, however, one caveat: The agreement only applies to the northern Shan state. The state has seen <a href="https://isdp.se/publication/return-to-war-militarized-conflicts-northern-shan-state">conflict since Myanmar’s independence in 1948</a>, and especially after <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/05/chinas-relations-burma">the once-Beijing-backed</a> Burma Communist Party established its headquarters there in 1968 and engaged the country’s army in a prolonged war.</p>
<p>It is also a region where opposition to Myanmar’s military government has had the most success in the current civil war. Since launching a fresh push against the Myanmar military on Oct. 27, 2023, the alliance has captured one town in Shan state <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/conflicts-in-numbers/33-towns-in-80-days-mapping-the-gains-of-myanmars-anti-junta-offensives.html">every three days</a>, according to media reports.</p>
<p>And despite the China-brokered agreement, <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240115_33/">sporadic fighting has continued</a> in Shan state. Meanwhile, the truce has done nothing to end the civil war outside the state.</p>
<p>But that might not be the point: The agreement brokered by Beijing is, I believe, more about trying to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/09/myanmar-china-border-offensive-cyberscams-three-brotherhood-alliance/">safeguard the interests of China</a> than about ushering in elusive peace to Myanmar. Beijing has increasingly been concerned over the threat of Myanmar’s turmoil spilling over into China.</p>
<p>Indeed, a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b5f830f7-8aec-4862-832c-c68f81fac49f">statement by the Chinese foreign ministry</a> announcing the truce noted that both sides in the conflict had “committed to not harming the safety of Chinese border residents and personnel involved in projects in Myanmar.”</p>
<p>There are clear reasons why China would like to see peace in Myanmar. The destabilized northern region has become <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/china/myanmar-conflict-china-scam-centers-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html">a haven for Chinese criminal gangs</a> that traffic humans and drugs, and run online scams from across the border. Meanwhile, the war has <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-border-trade-falls-100-million-in-april-december-amid-clashes.html">blocked trade routes</a> and seen Chinese citizens in border towns increasingly put at risk.</p>
<p><iframe id="RWA6y" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/RWA6y/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Military under siege</h2>
<p>Regardless of China’s desire to see the truce hold, there appears little chance of that happening. Myanmar’s army has faced major losses since fighting began in 2021, sparked by a coup in which the country’s generals <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/myanmar-news-protests-coup.html">overthrew the democratically elected government</a>. Since then, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-violence-in-myanmar-is-worsening-amid-fierce-resistance-and-international-ambivalence-203646">fierce resistance movement</a> has emerged across Myanmar – one the generals have failed to subdue.</p>
<p>The recent truce has done little to end the violence, opposition successes or the threat to China. A day after the cease-fire was announced, one member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the Arakan Army, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67982635">captured Paletwa</a>, a border town with India in the west of Myanmar. Meanwhile, the Kachin Independence Army <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmar-junta-loses-battalion-hq-fighter-jet-hundreds-of-troops-in-two-days.html">shot down a China-made fighter jet</a> – the third one in just a few weeks – and the Myanmar army lost control of one of its division headquarters in the cease-fire area.</p>
<p>In southeast regions of Myanmar bordering Thailand, the <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/operation-1111-close-to-securing-all-of-kayah-state-for-myanmar-resistance.html">Karenni Nationalities Defense Forces</a> and allied fighters launched “Operation 1111,” expanding their territorial and administrative control in the region. And in the central plains, the People’s Defense Forces, an umbrella resistance group, continues to engage in guerrilla warfare against the military. </p>
<h2>Dwindling Chinese influence</h2>
<p>In the context of the sprawling civil war, China has found itself in uncharted territory. </p>
<p>In the past, China has been able to exert its influence over Myanmar’s politics. But the civil war has seen the emergence of new resistance groups, such as the People’s Defense Forces, most of whose members are younger than the soldiers in established armies. And they have no intention of entering any agreement with the Myanmar military – despite the entreaties of Beijing.</p>
<p>Moreover, these new groups have made strategic and logistic links beyond Myanmar’s borders, giving them access to smuggled arms and supplies.</p>
<p>As such, China’s influence over Myanmar is constrained. This is even more so given the ethno-nationalism underpinning much of the fighting in Myanmar. Chinese efforts to end the fighting do little to provide solutions to tie the disparate ethnic groups in Myanmar together. In fact, the one thing binding the ethnic groups that form the Three Brotherhood Alliance is the common goal of defeating the Myanmar army.</p>
<p>In addition, the safety of Chinese citizens in regions across the Myanmar border cannot be guaranteed by the cease-fire agreement with the military. The army’s inability to tackle criminal gangs in Shan state prior to civil war suggests that even without warfare, the region will continue to pose a threat to China.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, China’s relationship with, and influence over, groups in northern Myanmar has changed as a result of the civil war.</p>
<p>Take the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/myanmar-national-democratic-alliance-army-mndaa/">Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army</a> (MNDAA), a resistance group in the Kokang region that borders China’s Yunnan province and shares linguistic and cultural ties with China. Since being formed in 1989, its support has switched back and forth from the Myanmar government to the resistance groups – as has China’s.</p>
<p>But the MNDAA cannot be viewed as a vassal state of China. </p>
<p>In 2019, the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/16/what-is-myanmars-three-brotherhood-alliance-thats-resisting-the-military">MNDAA joined the Three Brotherhood Alliance</a> with the Arakan Army and Ta'ang National Liberation Army, groups with different cultural and linguistic backgrounds.</p>
<p>China’s diplomacy and influence over the Three Brotherhood Alliance is limited: A truce threatens the unity that the group has developed in opposition to the military.</p>
<p>And there is little incentive among the Three Brotherhood Alliance to stop fighting at a time when it appears to be on the front foot, and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65743887">morale among Myanmar’s soldiers is low</a>. </p>
<p>Entering the truce is in itself risky for the alliance, as it may threaten the group’s standing with other armed groups – many of whom China never dealt with until 2021.</p>
<h2>Losing faith in the military</h2>
<p>As such, Beijing’s power to influence Myanmar’s ethnic resistance groups is limited. But there is another reason why the truce Beijing brokered may not hold: Beijing’s desire to give any support to the military government has its limits, too.</p>
<p>China is losing patience with the Myanmar military, which has failed to crack down on criminal gangs that have targeted Chinese citizens. As many as <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/08/hundreds-thousands-trafficked-work-online-scammers-se-asia-says-un-report">120,000 people</a>, many of them Chinese citizens, have been trafficked into Myanmar by these organizations to help <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/18/24041696/cyberscams-myanmar-china-pig-butchering">operate online scams</a>.</p>
<p>China’s default position on Myanmar has traditionally been to support whoever is in power. And Beijing had a good relationship with the democratic government under Aung San Suu Kyi prior to the 2021 coup.</p>
<p>The corruption and non-governability of Myanmar’s border towns since then threaten the safety of Chinese citizens and undermines any faith China has in the military’s ability to deliver stability.</p>
<p>If Myanmar’s military cannot stabilize northern Myanmar, China is in a difficult situation. The status quo – with the Myanmar military in power, but unable to subdue resistance movements – will continue to present a threat to China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tharaphi Than does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Beijing is losing patience with Myanmar’s military, as well as its influence with resistance groups.Tharaphi Than, Associate Professor of World Cultures and Languages, Northern Illinois UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105392023-12-05T13:17:24Z2023-12-05T13:17:24ZHow sacred images in many Asian cultures incorporate divine presence and make them come ‘alive’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559865/original/file-20231116-23-care6q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C19%2C3264%2C2423&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A gilded statue of the Buddha at Wat Phanan Choeng Temple in Thailand.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/wat-phanan-choeng-temple-this-highly-respected-royalty-free-image/1217280251?phrase=eye-opening+Buddhist+ritual&searchscope=image%2Cfilm&adppopup=true">Kittipong Chararoj/ iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Walking into a favorite restaurant here in Knoxville, Tennessee, I was immediately greeted by a golden statue of Buddha, its sparkling gemstone eyes meeting my own as I made my way through the door. The aromas of Thai curries beckoned, but as I was led to a table, I kept thinking about those glinting eyes.</p>
<p>Sacred objects are everywhere: Statues and paintings of gods fill museum galleries and catalog pages alike. You might also see them gracing a neighbor’s yard or upon an altar in your friend’s home.</p>
<p>Some dazzle in bejeweled splendor. Others may appear more humble, their luster softened through generations of hands passing them down. Oftentimes, it can feel as though sacred images are looking back.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-naparstek-1457307">research the ways in which objects express the power of divine presence</a> in Asian religious contexts. Studying different perspectives on sacred objects helps us think beyond religious contexts and allows us to rethink how objects and images play an active role in our lives.</p>
<h2>Sacred visual culture</h2>
<p>Hindu practice is defined by “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/darshan">darśan” – a ritual act of interacting with the divine</a> through the visual experience. Scholar <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/dianaeck/home">Diana Eck</a> describes this interaction in her seminal study of Indian visual culture, “<a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/darsan/9780231112659">Darśan</a>,” in the following way: “to stand in the presence of the deity and to behold the image with one’s own eyes, to see and be seen by the deity.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A couple, with a young child in the woman's lap, sitting before the Hindu God Ganesha, with folded hands." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559867/original/file-20231116-17-nxv3h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A family prays to the Hindu god Ganesha.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/family-praying-royalty-free-image/548295807?phrase=hindu+worship&adppopup=true">IndiaPix/IndiaPicture via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-theravada-buddhism-a-scholar-of-asian-religions-explains-205737">Theravada Buddhist</a> rituals in Southeast Asia include all-night chanting sessions to recharge statues’ power. As scholar of Theravada Buddhism <a href="https://www.swarthmore.edu/Humanities/dsweare1/">Donald Swearer</a> notes in “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691114354/becoming-the-buddha">Becoming the Buddha</a>,” monastics and laypeople in northern Thailand will gather to recite Buddhist sutras while holding cords attached to an image of the Buddha, forming an intricate web of connection between the image and the Buddhist community. </p>
<p>The benefits gained from these chants is understood to enter the statue, recharging its karmic power and reanimating it to once again interact with the community.</p>
<p><a href="https://asiasociety.org/education/buddhism-japan">Japanese Buddhist</a> statues <a href="https://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/fellows-book/behold-the-buddha-religious-meanings-of-japanese-buddhist-icons/">contain multiple items ritually placed</a> within their wooden cavities: bones of saints, robes from eminent monastics and even silk-fashioned replicas of visceral organs like lungs and kidneys. As art historian <a href="https://oberlin.academia.edu/JamesDobbins">James Dobbins</a> notes, certain Buddhist rituals are performed in order to transform the body of a statue into a living body. </p>
<p>In cases like this, inanimate objects are believed to transform into not only sacred things, but also active, living beings who can see, hear, taste and respond to the concerns of those who worship them.</p>
<h2>‘Eye-opening’ ritual</h2>
<p>There are many different ways to enliven an image, and each ritual tradition carries its own unique process. However, the most well-known across Asia is commonly referred to as the “<a href="https://pluralism.org/news/eye-opening-ceremony-buddhist-statues-draws-hundreds-connecticut">eye-opening” ceremony</a>. The term “eye-opening” gets its name from the culmination of an intense ritual process wherein the monk paints in the pupils of the image, thus opening its eye to see. </p>
<p>In Sri Lanka, Buddhist monks perform a version known as the netra-pinkama, which loosely translates to “meritorious action of the eyes.” </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gt5jY93AD2w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The netra-pinkama ritual.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/research/research-in-conversation/how-live-happy-life/professor-richard-gombrich#:%7E:text=Richard%20Gombrich%20is%20the%20Emeritus,of%20the%20Clay%20Sanskrit%20Library.">Richard Gombrich</a>, a scholar of Buddhism and Sanskrit, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2051829">noted in his study of Buddhism in Sri Lanka</a> that “Before consecration, a statue is treated with no more respect than one would give the materials of which it is composed. … The very act of consecration indicates that a statue is being brought to life.” </p>
<p>Enlivening an image is not a task undertaken lightly, as it is believed in some cases that any demonic spirits loitering around could interrupt the process, thereby resulting in an ineffective ritual or even a malevolent icon. Both the temple grounds and the ritual specialists must undergo purification rites before beginning. The whole process is filled with strict procedures and avoidance of taboos – a common theme among consecration rituals across Asian religious traditions. </p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, the monk must refrain from looking directly into the icon’s eyes, and thus uses a mirror to look over their shoulder in order to paint in the icon’s pupils.</p>
<p>In Taiwan, statues and paintings of Buddhist, Daoist and local gods will undergo a similar kind of practice known as “kaiguang,” meaning “<a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674504363">opening the radiance</a>.” Monks, Daoist masters and even the artists who carve the statues may perform the rite on behalf of the individuals or temple communities that commission the image.</p>
<p>Once completed, shops will wrap a piece of red paper around to cover the statue’s eyes to ensure that the first thing that the image sees is the face of the one who requested it. The power of sacred vision is such that it must literally be kept under wraps.</p>
<h2>Living images</h2>
<p>Once its eyes have been opened, the image becomes a living thing capable of performing powerful deeds. As such, people may behave much differently – making offerings of incense and taking pains to follow social etiquette lest they offend. The care with which these objects are treated once they have been “activated” suggests that there is a lot more here than meets the eye. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/darsan/9780231112659">Eck’s observation attests</a>, being seen is critical to understanding what images do. By seemingly looking back at us, sacred images remind us that we are not alone in this world. In so doing, they also send a message that the world is not there for our eyes only, but that other viewpoints are just as powerful as our own.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Naparstek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Through the power of rituals, inanimate objects can be understood to transform into agents who can see, hear, taste and respond to the concerns of those who worship them.Michael Naparstek, Lecturer in Religious Studies, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093532023-11-30T02:50:05Z2023-11-30T02:50:05ZHenry Kissinger’s bombing campaign likely killed hundreds of thousands of Cambodians − and set path for the ravages of the Khmer Rouge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562233/original/file-20231128-29-pn24j5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C40%2C2980%2C1925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The aftermath of U.S. bombs in Neak Luong, Cambodia, on Aug. 7, 1973.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CambodiaDestructionNeakLuong/64e54641784d404d8be12149a0b65694/photo?Query=US%20bombing%20cambodia&mediaType=photo,video,graphic,audio&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=49&currentItemNo=23">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Henry Kissinger, who died on Nov. 29, 2023 at the age of 100, stood as a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2023/11/29/henry-kissinger-dead-obituary/">colossus of U.S. foreign policy</a>. His influence on American politics lasted long beyond his eight-year stint guiding the Nixon and Ford administrations as national security adviser and secretary of state, with successive <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11640562/kissinger-pentagon-award">presidents</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/280402-trump-meets-with-former-nixon-adviser-henry-kissinger/">presidential candidates</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4037547-state-department-asked-about-birthday-party-what-does-secretary-blinken-like-about-henry-kissinger/">top diplomats</a> seeking his advice and approval ever since.</p>
<p>But his mark extends beyond the United States. Kissinger’s policies in the 1970s had immediate impact on countries, governments and people <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies/article/abs/stephen-g-rabe-kissinger-and-latin-america-intervention-human-rights-and-diplomacy-ithaca-ny-and-london-cornell-university-press-2020-ix-316-pp/9ECA0805AEF4A0F01D1C7A72DB68A5BE">across South America</a>, the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/kissinger-in-the-middle-east/">Middle East</a> and <a href="https://www.history.com/news/henry-kissinger-vietnam-war-legacy">Southeast Asia</a>. Sometimes the fallout – and it was that – lasted decades; in some places it continues to be felt today. Nowhere is that more true than Cambodia.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://search.asu.edu/profile/4031078">scholar of the political economy of Cambodia</a> who, as a child, escaped the brutal Khmer Rouge regime with four siblings, thanks in large part to the cunning and determination of my mother. In both a professional and personal sense, I am aware of the <a href="https://theintercept.com/2023/05/23/henry-kissinger-cambodia-bombing-survivors/">near 50-year impact</a> Kissinger’s policies during the Vietnam War have had on the country of my birth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in spectacles speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562234/original/file-20231128-17-sp0qw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Henry Kissinger in 1973.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DrHenryKissinger/11f28708044a4e17a31fef86986716e1/photo?Query=henry%20kissinger%20cambodia&mediaType=photo,video,graphic,audio&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The rise of the murderous regime that forced my family to leave was, in part, encouraged by Kissinger’s policies. The cluster bombs dropped on Cambodia under Kissinger’s watch <a href="http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2023/cambodia/impact.aspx">continue to destroy the lives</a> of any man, woman or child who happens across them. Indeed, when the current U.S. administration announced its intention in 2023 to provide cluster bombs to Ukraine, the prime minister of Cambodia was quick to call out the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3227129/ukraine-should-shun-us-cluster-bombs-learn-cambodias-painful-experience-pm-hun-sen">lingering damage the munition causes</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Island of peace’</h2>
<p>Counterfactuals are not the best tool of the historian; no one can say how Cambodia would have developed were it not for the Vietnam War and U.S. intervention in Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>But prior to the U.S. bombing of Cambodia, the country was touted as an “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1997/09/01/world/in-cambodia-king-sihanouk-once-more-moves-deftly-among-powers.html">Island of Peace</a>” by then-leader Prince Norodom Sihanouk, with a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-11-08-me-813-story.html">developing economy and relative stability</a>.</p>
<p>After Cambodia gained independence from its French colonial masters in 1953, Sihanouk presided over what was <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/violence-and-the-civilising-process-in-cambodia/golden-years-of-sihanoukism-19551966/14A4A3B5B9AF2C9846BCDF518302B5D8">seen as a golden age</a> for Cambodia. Even Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern-day Singapore, visited Cambodia to learn lessons on nation-building.</p>
<p>The country’s independence from France did not require any hard fight. Neighboring Vietnam, meanwhile, gained independence only after the bitter anti-colonial First Indochina War, which concluded with a rout of French troops <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/dien-bien-phu">at Điện Biên Phủ</a> in 1954.</p>
<p>However, Cambodia’s location drew it into the subsequent war between the newly independent communist North Vietnam and U.S.-backed South Vietnam.</p>
<p>Cambodia wasn’t officially a party in the Vietnam War, with Sihanouk declaring the country neutral. But Washington looked for ways to disrupt communist North Vietnamese operations along the <a href="https://www.nga.mil/defining-moments/Ho_Chi_Minh_Trail.html">Ho Chi Minh Trail</a> – which cut across Cambodia’s east, with Sihanouk’s blessing, and allowed the resupply of North Vietnamese troops on Cambodian soil.</p>
<h2>Kissinger’s ‘menu’</h2>
<p>Kissinger was the chief architect of the plan to disrupt that supply line, and what he came up with was “<a href="https://www.vietnamwar50th.com/1969-1971_vietnamization/Operation-MENU-Begins/">Operation Menu</a>.” The secret carpet-bombing campaign – with breakfast, lunch, dinner, snack, dessert and supper representing different targets and missions within Cambodia – was confirmed at a meeting in the Oval Office on March 17, 1969. The <a href="https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/documents/haldeman-diaries/37-hrhd-journal-vol01-19690317.pdf">diary entry of Richard Nixon’s chief of staff, H. R. Haldeman</a>, reads: “ … Historic day. K[issinger]‘s 'Operation Breakfast’ finally came off at 2:00 pm our time. K really excited, as is P[resident].”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/documents/haldeman-diaries/37-hrhd-journal-vol01-19690318.pdf">following day</a>, Haldeman wrote: “K’s ‘Operation Breakfast’ a great success. He came beaming in with the report, very productive.”</p>
<p>And so began four years of Kissinger’s legally dubious campaign in Cambodia.</p>
<p>To Kissinger, Cambodia was a “sideshow,” to use the <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780815412243/Sideshow-Kissinger-Nixon-and-the-Destruction-of-Cambodia-Revised-Edition">title of William Shawcross’ damning book</a> exposing the story of America’s secret war with Cambodia from 1969 to 1973. </p>
<p>During that period, the U.S. bombing of neutral Cambodia saw an estimated <a href="https://apjjf.org/Ben-Kiernan/4313.html">500,000 tons of ordnance dropped on 113,716 targets in the country</a>.</p>
<h2>Secret and illegal war?</h2>
<p>Kissinger and others in the White House tried to keep the campaign from the public for as long as they could, for good reason. It came as public opinion in the U.S. was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/2009/11/23/polling-wars-hawks-vs-doves/">turning against American involvement</a>. The bombing campaign is also <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780815412243/Sideshow-Kissinger-Nixon-and-the-Destruction-of-Cambodia-Revised-Edition">considered illegal under international law</a> by many experts.</p>
<p>But to Kissinger, the ends – containing communism – seemingly justified the means, no matter the cost. And the cost to Cambodians was huge.</p>
<p>It resulted in the direct <a href="https://gsp.yale.edu/sites/default/files/walrus_cambodiabombing_oct06.pdf">deaths of hundreds of thousands of Cambodians</a>. With the U.S. government keeping the bombings secret at the time, comprehensive data and documentation are limited. But <a href="https://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=2412">estimates on the number of deaths</a> range from as few as 24,000 to as many as a million. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/cambodia/tl02.html">Most estimates</a> <a href="https://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=2412">put the death toll</a> <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/atrocityendings/2015/08/07/cambodia-u-s-bombing-civil-war-khmer-rouge/">in the hundreds of thousands</a>.</p>
<p>Kissinger’s campaign also destabilized Cambodia, leaving it vulnerable for <a href="https://cla.umn.edu/chgs/holocaust-genocide-education/resource-guides/cambodia">the horrors to come</a>. The capital, Phnom Penh, ballooned in population because of the displacement of more than a million rural citizens fleeing U.S. bombs.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the bombing of Cambodian citizens contributed to an erosion of trust in Camodia’s leadership and put at question Sihanouk’s policy of allowing the North Vietnamese access through the country’s east. On March 18, 1970, Sihanouk was <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/remembering-cambodias-1970-coup/">ousted in a coup d’etat</a> and replaced by the U.S.-friendly Lon Nol. Direct U.S. involvement in the coup has never been proven, but certainly opponents to Lon Nol <a href="https://archive.org/details/mywarwithcia00noro">saw the hand of the CIA</a> in events.</p>
<p>The ousted Sihanouk called on the country’s rural masses to support his coalition government in exile, which included the Khmer Rouge. Until then, the Khmer Rouge had been a ragtag army with only revolutionary fantasies. But with Sihanouk’s backing, they grew. As journalist <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-fantasy-of-king-sihanouk">Philip Gourevitch noted</a>: “His name became the Khmer Rouge’s greatest recruitment tool.”</p>
<p>But Kissinger’s bombs also served as a recruitment tool. The Khmer Rouge were able to capitalize on the anger and resentment of Cambodians in the areas being shelled. Rebel leaders portrayed themselves as a force to protect Cambodia from foreign aggression and restore order and justice, in contrast to the ruling government’s massive corruption and pro-American leanings.</p>
<p>Kissinger’s bombing campaign was certainly not the only reason for the Khmer Rouge’s rise, but it contributed to the overall destabilization of Cambodia and a political vacuum that the Khmer Rouge was able to exploit and eventually seize power – which it did in 1975, <a href="https://sfi.usc.edu/collections/cambodian-genocide">overthrowing the government</a>.</p>
<p>Led by Pol Pot, the Khmer Rouge inflicted unimaginable atrocities upon the Cambodian people. Its genocidal campaign against political opponents, Cambodian minorities and those deemed counterrevolutionaries saw <a href="https://sfi.usc.edu/collections/cambodian-genocide">between 1.6 and 3 million people killed</a> through executions, forced labor and starvation – a quarter of the country’s then population.</p>
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<img alt="A young soldier in fatigues props a human skull on top of his rifle." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=904&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562236/original/file-20231128-23-a1qdp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1136&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A young Khmer Rouge soldier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/with-a-skull-on-the-muzzle-of-his-m-16-rifle-a-khmer-rouge-news-photo/515109502?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The scars from that period are still felt in Cambodia today. Recent research even points to the economic impact Kissinger’s bombs continue to have on farmers, <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/20/american-bombing-50-years-ago-still-shapes-cambodian-agriculture">who avoid richer, darker soil</a> over fears that it hides unexploded ordnance.</p>
<p>Anti-Americanism is no longer prevalent at the everyday level in Cambodia; indeed, the opposite is increasingly becoming true as China’s financial and political embrace becomes suffocating. But anti-Americanism is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/the-former-khmer-rouge-commander-who-still-leads-cambodia-is-again-stoking-anti-american-sentiment/2018/05/11/679ea9c8-4cf6-11e8-b966-bfb0da2dad62_story.html">frequently used in rhetoric</a> by leading politicians in the country.</p>
<p>I don’t agree with some other scholars that Kissinger’s bombing campaign can be definitively proven to have resulted in Khmer Rouge rule. But in my view, it no doubt contributed. Hun Sen, Cambodia’s autocratic leader who ruled for 38 years before passing the prime minister baton to his son in August 2023, has <a href="https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/talk-prime-minister-hun-sen">cited the U.S. bombing of his birthplace</a> as the reason he joined the Khmer Rouge. Many others joined for similar reasons.</p>
<p>As such, the devastating impact of Kissinger’s policies in Cambodia cannot be overstated – they contributed to the unraveling of the country’s social fabric and the suffering of its people, leaving behind a legacy of trauma.</p>
<p><em>This article was amended on Dec. 4, 2023, to revise the estimate of tonnage of ordinance dropped on Cambodia in U.S. bombing campaign.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophal Ear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Cambodian scholar who fled the Khmer Rouge as a child writes about the legacy of Henry Kissinger, who died at the age of 100 on Nov 28, 2023.Sophal Ear, Associate Professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133542023-09-13T00:20:23Z2023-09-13T00:20:23ZNew Zealand’s strategic priority in the Indo-Pacific is not AUKUS – it’s helping to defeat Russia in Ukraine<p>The debate in New Zealand over <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-defence-dilemma-facing-nzs-next-government-stay-independent-or-join-pillar-2-of-aukus-212090">whether to join</a> “pillar two” of the AUKUS security partnership threatens to overshadow a more important foreign policy challenge: how the country’s allies in the Indo-Pacific region are responding to the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>AUKUS seems to be based on the assumption it will deter or counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. But it is unclear whether this arrangement would advance the core national interests of New Zealand.</p>
<p>While New Zealand’s “stability, security and prosperity” depend critically, in the words of a recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-first-national-security-strategy-signals-a-turning-point-and-the-end-of-old-certainties-210885">government document</a>, on an international rules-based order, it is also plain that China is not the sole or even most serious threat to this arrangement. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the capitals of the Indo-Pacific region have been closely monitoring the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Most supported last year’s <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129492">United Nations resolution</a> condemning Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” (Laos and Vietnam abstained).</p>
<p>But only Singapore, a close US ally, <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/singapores-role-effective-enforcement-russian-fuel-sanctions">imposed sanctions</a> on Russia. And generally, the ASEAN nations’ statements on the invasion have not directly criticised Moscow. This is related to the considerable unease in Asia over the disruption and price shocks for global commodities caused by the Ukraine conflict.</p>
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<h2>Indo-Pacific interests</h2>
<p>For Indonesia and many other South-East Asian states, the war has led to soaring prices for food and energy, and a more polarised diplomatic environment. </p>
<p>Indonesia is the second-largest market for Ukrainian wheat and the fourth-largest for Russian chemical fertiliser, which is needed to grow local rice. Overall, ASEAN countries are major wheat importers, accounting for 15% of global imports.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-defence-dilemma-facing-nzs-next-government-stay-independent-or-join-pillar-2-of-aukus-212090">The defence dilemma facing NZ's next government: stay independent or join 'pillar 2' of AUKUS?</a>
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<p>At the same time, many Indo-Pacific states are conscious that regional heavyweights China and India remain important partners of Moscow.</p>
<p>China has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/1/russia-vetoes-un-resolution-on-ukraine-annexation-china-abstains">abstained on crucial UN resolutions</a> condemning Russian actions in Ukraine. Beijing has repeatedly placed the blame for the conflict on NATO and the US purportedly fuelling the conflict. </p>
<p>China has also massively <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/07/business/china-russia-trade-increase-intl/index.html">expanded trade with Russia</a> since the start of the invasion. This bilateral trade will exceed US$200 billion in 2023, a jump of $70 billion since 2021. Russian energy shipments to China are projected to increase by more than 40% this year. </p>
<h2>China, India and Russia</h2>
<p>Military ties between China and Russia continue to deepen. Several joint exercises having taken place since the start of the Ukraine invasion. Beijing has quietly supplied military-related technology to Russia, and reportedly supplied components to Iran in 2023 for use in drones being sold to Russia. </p>
<p>While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been more overtly critical than China’s Xi Jinping of the Ukraine invasion, he continues to emphasise close diplomatic and military ties with Moscow.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/talk-of-a-new-cold-war-is-overheated-but-nz-faces-complex-challenges-in-the-era-of-strategic-competition-212360">Talk of a new Cold War is overheated – but NZ faces complex challenges in the era of ‘strategic competition’</a>
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<p>India has also <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64753820">abstained on key UN resolutions</a> criticising the invasion. And while tensions between India and China have increased, the Indian government shows no signs of reducing its dependence on spare parts and technical support for the many Russian weapons platforms used by the Indian military. </p>
<p>Further, trade turnover has risen by over 300% since the invasion, including a tenfold increase in discounted Russian oil bought by India.</p>
<p>Finally, Indo-Pacific nations will have other concerns about the response of the US and wider international community to the Russian invasion. In particular, they might question the West’s staying power.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-first-national-security-strategy-signals-a-turning-point-and-the-end-of-old-certainties-210885">NZ’s first national security strategy signals a 'turning point' and the end of old certainties</a>
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<p>The Biden administration has directed more than $75 billion in financial and military assistance in support, NATO has further expanded its membership, and a range of comprehensive and collective sanctions have targeted the Russian economy. </p>
<p>But the US has also tried not to directly “provoke” the Putin regime while supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty.</p>
<p>There are international supporters of Ukraine who champion a “<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/25/russia-ukraine-putin-prigozhin-negotiation-settlement-deal-peace-war-counteroffensive/">land for peace</a>” deal with Russia, too. And it remains possible that a new Republican administration in Washington in 2024 might abandon the current military commitment.</p>
<h2>Supporting Ukraine to counter China</h2>
<p>Given the circumstances, New Zealand should remain clear-eyed about the connections between its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific and its support for defeating Russian expansionism.</p>
<p>To date, New Zealand has contributed more than NZ$70 million in <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/increase-nz-support-ukraine">humanitarian and military aid</a> to Ukraine. But this looks pretty modest in light of the possible fallout for the Indo-Pacific region if Putin wins any sort of victory.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-navy-is-still-more-powerful-than-chinas-more-so-than-the-australian-government-is-letting-on-208466">The US navy is still more powerful than China's: more so than the Australian government is letting on</a>
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<p>Especially so, considering Ukraine is a liberal democracy that gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 (in return for Russian recognition of its sovereignty and territorial integrity), and which shares New Zealand’s goal of reforming the UN Security Council.</p>
<p>Indeed, the best way for New Zealand to contribute to countering Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific would be to significantly increase its military support for Ukraine.</p>
<p>If Russia is defeated or forced to withdraw, it will be a serious blow to Xi Jinping’s leadership and complicate any plans he might have for annexing Taiwan. This would go some way towards bolstering the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific that is so clearly in New Zealand’s interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert G. Patman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South-East Asia is anxious about the Ukraine war’s impact on regional economies. For New Zealand, that presents more pressing geopolitical priorities than confronting China.Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105572023-08-03T20:03:02Z2023-08-03T20:03:02Z‘Limitless’ energy: how floating solar panels near the equator could power future population hotspots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540935/original/file-20230803-17-ypizoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C4%2C992%2C660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-top-view-solar-panels-cells-1924116725">Tavarius, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vast arrays of solar panels floating on calm seas near the Equator could provide effectively unlimited solar energy to densely populated countries in Southeast Asia and West Africa.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9941/3/3/23">new research</a> shows offshore solar in Indonesia alone could generate about 35,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar energy a year, which is similar to current global electricity production (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix">30,000TWh per year</a>). </p>
<p>And while most of the world’s oceans experience storms, some regions at the Equator are relatively still and peaceful. So relatively inexpensive engineering structures could suffice to protect offshore floating solar panels.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/offshore_solar_atlas/">high-resolution global heat maps</a> show the Indonesian archipelago and equatorial West Africa near Nigeria have the greatest potential for offshore floating solar arrays. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A heatmap showing the best locations for floating solar panels, away from tropical storm tracks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540572/original/file-20230801-20-dkpvgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Heatmap for offshore floating solar panels. Red areas are best, followed by yellow, green and dark blue. The grey lines show tropical storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author-supplied, using OpenStreetMap base</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
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<h2>Solar power rules by mid-century</h2>
<p>On current trends, the global economy will be largely decarbonised and electrified by 2050, supported by <a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">vast amounts of solar and wind energy</a>. </p>
<p>About 70 square kilometres of solar panels can provide all the energy requirements of a million affluent people in a zero-carbon economy. The panels can be placed on rooftops, in arid areas, colocated with agriculture, or floated on water bodies. </p>
<p>But countries with high population densities, such as <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/population/most-populous-countries/">Nigeria and Indonesia</a>, will have limited space for solar energy harvesting.</p>
<p>Their tropical location in the so-called “doldrum” latitudes also means wind resources are poor. Fortunately, these countries – and their neighbours – can harvest effectively unlimited energy from solar panels floating on calm equatorial seas. </p>
<p>Floating solar panels can also be placed on inland lakes and reservoirs. <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/03/23/global-study-highlights-potential-of-floating-solar/">Inland floating solar</a> has large potential and is already growing rapidly. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9941/3/3/23">recently released paper</a> surveys the global oceans to find regions that didn’t experience large waves or strong winds over the past 40 years. Floating solar panels in such regions do not require strong and expensive engineering defences. </p>
<p>Regions that don’t experience waves larger than 6 metres nor winds stronger than 15m per second could generate up to one million TWh per year. That’s about five times more annual energy than is needed for a fully decarbonised global economy supporting 10 billion affluent people. </p>
<p>Most of the good sites are close to the Equator, in and around Indonesia and equatorial west Africa. These are regions of high population growth and high environmental values. Marine floating solar panels could help resolve land use conflict. </p>
<h2>Indonesia has vast solar energy potential</h2>
<p>Indonesia is a densely populated country, particularly on the islands of Java, Bali and Sumatra. By mid-century, Indonesia’s population may exceed <a href="https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/IDN">315 million people</a>. </p>
<p>Fortunately, Indonesia has <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/17/5424">vast solar energy potential</a> and also vast <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3457">pumped hydro energy storage potential</a> to store the solar energy overnight. </p>
<p>About 25,000 square km of solar panels would be required to support an affluent Indonesia after full decarbonisation of the economy using solar power. </p>
<p>Indonesia has the option of floating vast numbers of solar panels on its calm inland seas. The region has about 140,000 square km of seascape that has not experienced waves larger than 4m – nor winds stronger than 10m per second – in the past 40 years. </p>
<p>Indonesia’s maritime area of 6.4 million square km is 200 times larger than required if Indonesia’s entire <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-could-harvest-solar-energy-from-10-billion-panels-so-where-do-we-put-them-167299">future energy needs</a> were met from offshore floating solar panels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A heatmap showing the best locations for floating solar panels, away from tropical storm tracks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540573/original/file-20230801-23-ko6dda.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Heatmap for offshore floating solar panels in Indonesia. Red areas are best, followed by yellow, green and dark blue. The grey lines show tropical storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author-supplied, using OpenStreetMap base</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>The future for offshore floating solar</h2>
<p>Most of the global seascape experiences waves larger than 10m and winds stronger than 20m per second. Several companies are working to develop engineering defences so offshore floating panels can tolerate storms. In contrast, benign maritime environments along the equator require much less robust and expensive defences. </p>
<p>We have found the most suitable regions cluster within 5–12 degrees of latitude of the Equator, principally in and around the Indonesian archipelago and in the Gulf of Guinea near Nigeria. These regions have low potential for wind generation, high population density, rapid growth (in both population and energy consumption) and substantial intact ecosystems that should not be cleared for solar farms. Tropical storms rarely impact equatorial regions. </p>
<p>The offshore floating solar industry is in its infancy. Offshore solar panels do have downsides compared with onshore panels, including salt corrosion and marine fouling. Shallow seas are preferred for anchoring the panels to the seabed. And careful attention must be paid to minimising damage to the marine environment and fishing. Global warming may also alter wind and wave patterns.
Despite these challenges, we believe offshore floating panels will provide a large component of the energy mix for countries with access to calm equatorial seas. By mid-century, about a billion people in these countries will rely mostly on solar energy, which is causing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">fastest energy change in history</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sunshine-by-day-water-by-night-indonesia-could-pair-its-vast-solar-and-hydro-storage-to-decarbonise-the-country-183219">Sunshine by day, water by night: Indonesia could pair its vast solar and hydro storage to decarbonise the country</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from ARENA, P4I and similar organisations</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Firnando Silalahi's ongoing PhD study is funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP).</span></em></p>New research shows densely populated countries in Southeast Asia and West Africa could harvest effectively unlimited energy from solar panels floating on calm tropical seas near the equator.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityDavid Firnando Silalahi, Phd Candidate, School of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2092912023-08-03T12:22:36Z2023-08-03T12:22:36ZMyanmar crisis highlights limits of Indonesia’s ‘quiet diplomacy’ as it sets sights on becoming a ‘great regional power’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540124/original/file-20230731-16223-lebhyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=532%2C1391%2C5750%2C3261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Myanmar's seat was left empty at a recent meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/this-picture-shows-an-empty-seat-reserved-for-a-myanmar-news-photo/1521950355?adppopup=true">Achmad Ibrahim/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With regional power comes regional responsibilities – as Indonesia is finding out.</p>
<p>The world’s fourth most populous nation aspires to be a “<a href="https://setkab.go.id/keketuaan-asean-dan-visi-politik-luar-negeri-indonesia/">great regional power” by 2030</a>, playing a stabilizing role in Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>It is getting an early taste of what that entails. As the <a href="https://theconversation.com/chairing-asean-what-does-it-mean-for-indonesia-in-2023-190208">current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations</a>, Indonesia has been called upon by international bodies, including the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/06/un-expert-urges-coordinated-action-indonesia-and-other-nations-address">United Nations</a>, to show leadership in resolving one of the region’s bloodiest conflict: <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-violence-in-myanmar-is-worsening-amid-fierce-resistance-and-international-ambivalence-203646">Myanmar’s civil war</a>. And progress has been slow.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JhojdBgAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of international relations</a> and Indonesian foreign policy, I see the nation’s handling of the Myanmar crisis as an early test of how Indonesia could fare as the region’s great power.</p>
<h2>The limits of ‘quiet diplomacy’</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60144957">civil war</a> between the military and the anti-military groups in Myanmar has <a href="https://www.prio.org/news/3062">claimed thousands of lives</a>. It followed a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/myanmar-coup-2021-explained-in-30-seconds">2021 coup</a> that returned the country to military rule, with the junta embarking on a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/28/myanmar-year-brutality-coups-wake">brutal crackdown of the opposition</a>. Since then, the ruling generals have <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-violence-in-myanmar-is-worsening-amid-fierce-resistance-and-international-ambivalence-203646">encountered fierce resistance</a> from armed groups.</p>
<p>In April 2021, a few months into the conflict, ASEAN leaders meeting in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta <a href="https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/Chairmans-Statement-on-ALM-Five-Point-Consensus-24-April-2021-FINAL-a-1.pdf">agreed to a “five-point consensus”</a> on Myanmar, calling for an immediate cease-fire, constructive dialogue between all parties, a special envoy to help mediate the conflict, humanitarian assistance from ASEAN and a delegation visit to Myanmar to facilitate the peace process.</p>
<p>More than two years on, the first point of the <a href="https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/Chairmans-Statement-on-ALM-Five-Point-Consensus-24-April-2021-FINAL-a-1.pdf">five-point consensus</a> has still not been implemented, and chances of a cease-fire look remote under the current level of fighting. In May, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-quietly-engaging-key-stakeholders-myanmar-crisis-foreign-minister-2023-05-05/">responding to criticism over perceived inaction</a> over the crisis, said Indonesia was relying on “<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230505-indonesia-says-using-quiet-diplomacy-to-help-solve-myanmar-crisis">quiet diplomacy</a>.” Such a policy forms part of Indonesia’s attempts to balance the <a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2012/02/08/asean-and-the-principle-of-non-interference/">nonintervention principal</a> of ASEAN – by which meddling in the domestic affairs of neighboring states is unacceptable – with the need to address the internal crisis in Myanmar. But efforts to influence the behavior of another state through discreet negotiations or actions have clearly not yet succeeded.</p>
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<p>It doesn’t bode well for Indonesia’s desire to be a stabilizing factor in the region. </p>
<p>In theory, Indonesia should be well placed to assume regional leadership. It is a member of the G20 gathering of richest nations and is poised to have the <a href="https://setkab.go.id/en/indonesia-will-be-worlds-4th-largest-economy-by-2045-president-jokowi-says/">world’s fourth largest economy within two decades</a>. Its military is <a href="https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-southeast-asia.php">ranked the most powerful</a> in the region. Added to this economic and military might is a willingness to assume the role of regional leader.</p>
<p>Yet Indonesia’s calls for a cease-fire in Myanmar have fallen on deaf ears, in part because the warring parties know Indonesia is unwilling to punish Myanmar for failing to end the fighting. Any such punitive action would be deemed unacceptable under the ASEAN nonintervention principle. </p>
<h2>No end to war</h2>
<p>The pressure that Indonesia may have been able to assert on Myamar’s warring parties has been blunted for a number of reasons.</p>
<p>Theoretically, the high cost of war <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400824465/committing-to-peace">should encourage combatants</a> to the negotiating table – the idea being that when coffers dry up and civilian suffering mounts, peace becomes a more attractive option. Yet the worsening violence on the ground suggests that both sides are absorbing the costs.</p>
<p>Myanmar’s ruling junta is aided here by revenue generated from the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/05/un-expert-exposes-1-billion-death-trade-myanmar-military">Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise</a>, which allows the military to finance the purchasing of arms. And <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-slap-new-sanctions-myanmar-state-owned-banks-sources-2023-06-21/">despite sanctions</a> imposed by the United States and several Western nations, the generals are able to replenish weapon stocks through deals with countries <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/world/un-myanmar-report-military-junta-deadly-arms-sales-russia-china-intl-hnk/index.html">including Russia, China</a> <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/arms-07032023152856.html">and India</a>. </p>
<p>Part of the problem is that implementation of the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-burma-act-does-and-doesnt-mean-us-policy-myanmar">current targeted</a> round of Western sanctions partly relies on support from other countries. And the story of sanctioned arms dealers such as business tycoon <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/myanmar-tycoons-arms-dealer-sanctioned-by-us-finds-shelter-in-singapore">Tay Za</a>, who has been accused by the U.S. of supplying arms and equipment to the junta but still manages to operate his business from Singapore, provides an example of how traders are able to circumvent international sanctions.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, through the BURMA Act – incorporated into the <a href="https://armedservices.house.gov/ndaa">National Defense Authorization Act</a> and <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3252968/biden-signs-national-defense-authorization-act-into-law">signed by President Joe Biden</a> in December 2022 – the U.S. pledged to provide nonlethal assistance, such as medical supplies, radar equipment and armored military vehicles, to pro-democratic forces in Burma. </p>
<p>Although this is welcomed by supporters of Myanmar democracy, it nonetheless makes it harder to force a weakened opposition to the negotiating table – especially if it believes it is winning the war.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="M16 assault rifles lean against a wall that appears to be blood-stained." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540409/original/file-20230801-25-v5y65s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Myanmar’s civil war: well armed and bloody.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/rifles-lean-against-the-wall-of-a-karenni-nationalities-news-photo/1549096325?adppopup=true">Daphne Wesdorp/Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And finally, although the junta is finding it difficult to force an emboldened pro-democracy opposition into submission, it is still the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/myanmar-s-military-numbers">strongest party in the conflict</a>. Knowing that might make it more reluctant to negotiate. As it is, any mediator faces the problem of trying to force a military junta <a href="https://humanrightsclinic.law.harvard.edu/beyond-the-coup-in-myanmar-in-accordance-with-the-law-how-the-military-perverts-rule-of-law-to-oppress-civilians/">used to being in power and accustomed to impunity over its actions</a> to the table. </p>
<h2>So what is Indonesia’s role?</h2>
<p>So where does that leave Indonesia’s attempt to play regional peacemaker?</p>
<p>Patience is <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/time-is-running-out-for-indonesia-to-turn-the-tide-on-myanmar/">understandably running thin</a> for <a href="https://jakartaglobe.id/news/quiet-diplomacy-raises-expectations-on-asean-chair-indonesia">international observers</a> who watch the military junta committing atrocities on the opposition daily. Some have <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/After-success-with-G-20-Indonesia-now-must-rally-ASEAN-to-act">called on Indonesia to suspend</a> Myanmar’s ASEAN membership. </p>
<p>Although Indonesia and the rest of ASEAN member states decided <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/26/asean-summit-begins-without-myanmar-after-top-generals-exclusion">not to invite</a> the representative of the junta to attend this year’s summit, I believe they are unlikely to suspend its ASEAN membership out of concern for destabilizing the region further.</p>
<p>As an aspiring <a href="https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/document/obo-9780199743292/obo-9780199743292-0222.xml">regional power</a>, Indonesia has the ability to harness not only its economic and military weight but its moral voice by continuing to appeal to warring parties to better protect the lives of Myanmar civilians.</p>
<p>Getting the combatants to agree to end the violence might be an unattainable goal during its tenure as the chair of ASEAN. But if Indonesia is to become a stabilizing leader in the region, it will need to continue efforts long after it relinquishes that role in December 2023.</p>
<h2>Getting the big guns involved</h2>
<p>In the final few months of ASEAN leadership, Indonesia can lay the foundation for a resolution of the Myanmar crisis. That includes holding the junta accountable or at least cutting its capacity to violently attack the anti-junta forces. </p>
<p>Such a goal would require coordinated action among the U.S. and China, as well as other ASEAN members, to exert pressure on Myanmar’s generals. </p>
<p>And here Indonesia can play a role by making sure the Myanmar crisis is not being overlooked by the U.S. and the West in general, or by China, which has <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/02/limits-beijings-support-myanmars-military">continued close ties</a> with Myanmar’s generals. As the emerging regional power, Indonesia’s “quiet diplomacy” can extend to bringing up the issue of Myanmar in high-level meetings in Beijing and Washington, as well as in regional bodies.</p>
<p>In such bilateral discussions, Indonesia can help steer the direction of sanctions. Although the junta has survived multiple Western sanctions, the threat of a well-coordinated round of tougher, targeted sanctions could gradually deprive the junta of resources. Indonesia, can further assist by encouraging regional governments to crack down on sanction-breaking junta supporters supplying military equipment to the generals from places such as Singapore. Similarly, coordination with Washington over the type of lethal assistance it provides the opposition could support humanitarian efforts while not inflaming the situation further.</p>
<p>Perhaps before becoming the “great regional power” it aspires to be, Indonesia is best placed to lean into its position as a conduit to the current geopolitical power brokers in Washington and Beijing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209291/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angguntari Ceria Sari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As current chair of the regional body ASEAN, Indonesia is tasked with resolving a conflict that has killed thousands. Progress has been slow.Angguntari Ceria Sari, Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik ParahyanganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090882023-07-06T20:50:54Z2023-07-06T20:50:54ZWhat Vietnam’s ban of the Barbie movie tells us about China’s politics of persuasion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536099/original/file-20230706-16210-k7hkwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4874%2C3378&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Actor Margot Robbie blows out a candle on the cake to celebrate her birthday during the pink carpet event for the movie 'Barbie' in Seoul, South Korea, in July 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Barbie has always had some degree of notoriety. She is at once <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/cultural-history-barbie-180982115/">a symbol of female empowerment, ridicule and consumerism</a>. People might suspect that the recent <a href="https://apnews.com/article/barbie-movie-vietnam-china-ninedash-df593a95b5826b03429d28ab855081a8">ban of the <em>Barbie</em> movie by the Vietnamese government</a> is motivated by these concerns. Instead, international political intrigue provides a better explanation. </p>
<p>Territorial disputes run deep in Southeast Asia, having both real and symbolic value. Claims by both Korea and Japan of <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/islands-ire-south-korea-japan-dispute">the Dokdo (Takeshima) Islands are more than three centuries old</a>, while Japan, Taiwan and China each claim ownership of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/asia/japan-china-senkaku-islands-ships-intl-hnk-mic-ml/index.html">the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands</a>.</p>
<p>Amid the frothy <em>Barbie</em> plot, the attentive viewer might notice a map depicting a broad area claimed by China in international waters that <a href="http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/SOUTHCHINASEA-RULING/010020QR1SG/index.html">buffer the Philippines, Malaysia/Indonesia, Vietnam and China</a>. The Chinese claim of the vast swath of territory, known as the “nine-dash line” because this symbol demarcates China’s claims in the region, ignores both international law and the counterclaims of other countries.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1677020203819884546"}"></div></p>
<p>One map in one movie might seem innocuous. But the Chinese Communist Party revels in the persuasive power of pop culture, going so far as to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-radio/">purchase radio stations to broadcast its messages in other countries</a>. </p>
<h2>Appropriating culture</h2>
<p>While critical viewers might discount the <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/china-propaganda-censorship-control/">overt propaganda</a> of many Chinese movies, they are likely less aware of the <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/AUPress/Display/Article/3267338/mapping-chinese-influence-in-hollywood">increasing influence China has in Hollywood</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond movies, China has made more overt claims to the cultures of other countries. Korea is an example. </p>
<p>China has claimed traditional Korean songs (<em>arirang</em>), <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3166389/hanbok-years-kimchi-china-denies-cultural-appropriation-over">dress (<em>hanbok</em>)</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/01/stealing-our-culture-south-koreans-upset-after-china-claims-kimchi-as-its-own">the quintessential culinary staple, <em>kimchi</em></a>. </p>
<p>In the case of kimchi, Chinese <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/pao-cai-v-kimchi-chinese-south-koreans-clash-on-social-media">state media claimed</a> that the International Organization for Standardization’s recognition of <a href="https://www.iso.org/standard/78112.html"><em>pao kai</em></a>, a Chinese fermented vegetable dish, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55129805">extends to kimchi</a>. Yet such assertions ignore international recognition of <a href="https://ich.unesco.org/en/RL/tradition-of-kimchi-making-in-the-democratic-people-s-republic-of-korea-01063">kimchi-making</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/fao-who-codexalimentarius/sh-proxy/en/?lnk=1&url=https%253A%252F%252Fworkspace.fao.org%252Fsites%252Fcodex%252FStandards%252FCXS%2B223-2001%252FCXS_223e.pdf">kimchi as uniquely Korean</a>.</p>
<p>Posts on Weibo, China’s popular social media platform, show the hashtag <a href="https://www.koreaboo.com/news/china-south-korea-thief-country-kimchi-hanbok-stolen/">#小偷国# (thief country)</a> when referring to Korean’s cultural products as China’s own.</p>
<p>Online debates over fermented cabbage, dresses and songs might seem trivial. But on a psychological level, <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-97016-000">culture and physical territory are central to group identities</a>. The attempted slow erosion of independent cultural identities can pose future threats.</p>
<p>Vietnam’s concerns about a momentary glimpse of a map in a movie must be viewed in these terms. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People in scrubs wearing masks and gloves handle mounds of fermented cabbage with red chilis colouring them red." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536101/original/file-20230706-7970-lnc31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Employees of a South Korean financial institution make kimchi to donate to needy neighbours at the organization’s headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, in November 2022. Even kimchi has been subject to cultural appropriation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cultures evolve</h2>
<p><a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/10/13/china-s-influence-in-south-asia-vulnerabilities-and-resilience-in-four-countries-pub-85552">Imperial China’s former sphere of influence</a> included countries like Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan. Known as the “Middle Kingdom,” it framed itself as a <a href="https://www.chinasource.org/resource-library/blog-entries/from-the-middle-east-to-the-middle-kingdom-7/">parent culture</a>. But this is not how cultural evolution works.</p>
<p>People innovate, ideas are adopted within a group, they spread beyond the boundaries and borders of groups and are adapted by others. The Vietnamese, for example, <a href="https://ethnomed.org/resource/traditional-vietnamese-medicine-historical-perspective-and-current-usage/">developed their own folk medicine</a>, often appropriated by the Chinese as <a href="http://www.joaat.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=57&id=356">“southern medicine (<em>Thuốc Nam</em>).”</a></p>
<p><a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/the-us-should-pay-attention-to-the-china-south-korea-culture-clash/">By making claims on other cultures in the region, China is attempting to legitimize its influence</a> as it seeks global superpower status.</p>
<p>Understandably, when China makes claims on regional cultural traditions — and territory — <a href="https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/south-koreans-are-rethinking-what-china-means-their-nation">its neighbours fear for their autonomy</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A plane flies over a hilly island." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536104/original/file-20230706-21-602cul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Japanese maritime defence plane flies over disputed islands, called the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, in the East China Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Kyodo News)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Eyeing territory</h2>
<p>The Chinese Communist Party has set its sights on what it calls the South China Sea, ignoring <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-hague-ruling-philippines.html#:%7E:text=BEIJING%20%E2%80%94%20An%20international%20tribunal%20in,waters%20had%20no%20legal%20basis.">a 2016 international ruling</a> on the illegitimacy of its claims to the area.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A combo photo shows an artificial island with just a few structures on it, and the same island almost 25 years later with what appears to be a military base on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473621/original/file-20220712-31833-2bvded.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This combo photo shows the same Chinese structures on an man-made island in February 1999, top, and March 2022 in a disputed area of the South China Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photos/Aaron Favila)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The party has dedicated considerable effort to <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/yes-china-has-the-worlds-largest-navy-that-matters-less-than-you-might-think/">building up a powerful navy</a> and constructing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/china-has-fully-militarized-three-islands-in-south-china-sea-us-admiral-says">artificial islands atop coral reefs to place military bases</a>.</p>
<p>If not in form, then in spirit, the Chinese government’s actions are similar to Imperial Japan’s notion of a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09592299608405994">“sphere of co-prosperity”</a> in the Pacific from 1931 to 1945. During this time, parts of Korea, China, Taiwan, Vietnam and other countries were subjected to brutal colonial rule.</p>
<p>While an arms build-up is underway, China’s main weapon is its <a href="https://world101.cfr.org/foreign-policy/tools-foreign-policy/what-soft-power">soft power</a>, a persuasive approach to international relations that involves the use of economic or cultural influence.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.07.007">Belt and Road Initiative</a> represents an explicit, direct means to influence countries with financial support. Shaping the content of movies presents a more implicit, indirect means that often goes unnoticed.</p>
<h2>Persuasion through media, messages</h2>
<p>A key strategy in persuasion is to flood information ecosystems with desired messages. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/344428">If we fail to critically reflect on their content, our acceptance increases</a>. This is the same rationale behind <a href="https://doi.org/10.1362/146934712X13286274424271">product placement</a>.</p>
<p>When presented in ubiquitous media, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2020.547065/full?source=Snapzu">such as memes</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1179/caj.1985.22.2.125">or postage stamps</a>, an audience can begin to lose track of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.114.1.3">the credibility of the source</a>. While a map in a fluffy movie can be discounted, the repeated presentation of images, dialogue and values that support the goals of the Chinese regime is concerning.</p>
<p>Beyond film, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00377990903221905">history textbooks</a> and classrooms are the latest battleground for wars that continue to live in collective memory. Studies of Japanese textbooks, for example, have noted shifts in how the horrific crimes of Imperial Japan, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07393140802269021">including the Nanjing massacre, are represented</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0026749X11000485">Publishers appear to engage in self-censorship to ensure a favourable position within the market</a>. </p>
<p>Hollywood also seems to have willingly adopted <a href="https://pen.org/report/made-in-hollywood-censored-by-beijing/">self-censorship</a>, with some <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/quentin-tarantino-wont-recut-once-a-time-china-1248720/">notable exceptions</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://pen.org/report/made-in-hollywood-censored-by-beijing/">A 2020 PEN America report entitled “Made in Hollywood, Censored in Beijing</a>,” details how Hollywood decision-makers are increasingly making decisions about their films “based on an effort to avoid antagonizing Chinese officials who control whether their films gain access to the booming Chinese market.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-bakery-to-wagashiya-a-textbook-case-of-moral-education-in-japan-75626">From bakery to wagashiya: a textbook case of 'moral education' in Japan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The power of pink persuasion</h2>
<p>Like <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjb/e2004-00382-7">many movies</a>, <em>Barbie</em> is unlikely to have any lasting impact on society. Its brief moment in the spotlight will likely amuse audiences, but it also adds another small brick to the wall being built by China to expand its influence.</p>
<p>Once the context of cultural and territorial appropriation is appreciated, the action of Vietnam’s National Film Evaluation Council to ban the film shouldn’t be surprising. While a total ban might be excessive, the appearance of the map in the film disregards Vietnam’s autonomy and international agreements.</p>
<p>Hollywood — and other hubs of popular media and social media — are ultimately subject to the demands of <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/feature/movie-theaters-box-office-historical-data-trend-1235354702/">viewers</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/4/15/23683554/twitter-dying-elon-musk-x-company">users</a>. Regulations aimed at preventing Chinese influence won’t be sufficient as they might replicate the kind of censorship seen in China. </p>
<p>Instead, education systems need to teach <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1046525">media literacy that will help consumers be more critical about the content they’re watching and reading</a>, providing them with an understanding of history and the intellectual tools to challenge persuasion campaigns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Richard Schoenherr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Once the context of cultural and territorial appropriation by China in Southeast Asia are understood, Vietnam’s ban of the Barbie movie isn’t surprising.Jordan Richard Schoenherr, Assistant Professor, Psychology, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087082023-06-30T22:35:33Z2023-06-30T22:35:33ZCambodia PM Hun Sen will shut down opposition on election day – even if he can no longer threaten voters on Facebook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535079/original/file-20230630-14093-3ojj3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5746%2C3879&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cambodian PM Hun Sen takes a selfie -- but where will he post it now? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-takes-selfies-with-a-news-photo/1258807502?adppopup=true">Rang Xhhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen will no longer be able to use his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">Facebook page</a> to air threats of violence against opposition supporters – but that doesn’t mean he can’t still suppress their vote as the country <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/world/asia/cambodia-hun-sen-meta-facebook.html">prepares for a general election</a>.</p>
<p>On June 30, 2023, the Facebook page of Hun Sen – who has ruled the country as leader of the Cambodian People’s Party for almost four decades – <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">appeared to have been deleted</a>. It wasn’t immediately clear whether <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66062752">Hun Sen had removed the page</a> or Meta had taken it down. But it follows a <a href="https://www.oversightboard.com/news/656303619335474-oversight-board-overturns-meta-s-decision-in-cambodian-prime-minister-case/">recommendation by the oversight board</a> of Facebook’s parent company to “immediately suspend Hun Sen’s Facebook page and Instagram account for six months” over a video in which he calls on political opponents who allege vote-rigging to choose between the “legal system” and “a bat.” In the video posted on Facebook on Jan. 9, Hun Sen also threatens to “gather CPP people to protest and beat (opposition) up.”</p>
<p>The decision comes as a slap in the face for Hun Sen, who <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-huge-facebook-fan-100535327">had regularly posted on Facebook</a> to his 14 million followers. But as an <a href="https://thunderbird.asu.edu/about/people/staff-faculty/sophal-ear">expert on Cambodian politics</a>, I know it will do little to affect the result of the general election scheduled for July 23, 2023. Cambodia has had Hun Sen as prime minister <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-hun-sen-hun-manet-prime-minister-0095b3362ca2d5af4f14dd77c76ef351">for 38 years</a>. And recent events have only tightened Hun Sen’s grip on power.</p>
<h2>Many parties, no opposition</h2>
<p>Voters heading to the polls will again be presented with a lack of real choice – as has been the case in the six national parliamentary ballots held since <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44966916">nominally democratic elections were restored</a> in 1993.</p>
<p>It isn’t that there won’t be many parties that voters will be able to choose among on July 23. In fact, there will be numerous parties on the ballot, along with the ruling Cambodian People’s Party. In the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/29/cambodia-hun-sen-re-elected-in-landslide-victory-after-brutal-crackdown">2018 national election</a> there were 19 parties other than the CPP.</p>
<p>The problem for democracy watchers is that the list of parties allowed to run does not include the main opposition party, the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/cambodia-national-rescue-party-cnrp/">Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP was conveniently <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2017-12-06/cambodia-supreme-court-dissolves-main-opposition-party/">dissolved on Nov. 16, 2017</a>, by order of the Cambodian Supreme Court – which has as its head a permanent committee member of Hun Sen’s CPP.</p>
<p>Further, the Candle Light Party – the last vestige of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-opposition-party-election-hun-sen-63659ff8f2de992d84d2be748afbab8b">real, credible opposition in Cambodia</a> – was not permitted to register for the forthcoming election for bureaucratic reasons. The missing paperwork that prevented registration is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-election-candlelight-party-deny-registration-7436b0572eefb9b5be3fa724d3cb2fcb">believed by CLP supporters</a> to have been taken during a police raid on opposition headquarters years ago.</p>
<p>These measures build on decades in which Hun Sen and his ruling CPP have <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/141921/how-hun-sen-killed-democracy-in-cambodia">removed real choice</a> from Cambodian ballots. And for Hun Sen and the CPP it has been effective: In the last election, held in 2018, the CPP <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/7/30/cambodians-spoil-ballots-to-protest-poll-critics-labelled-a-sham">garnered 77% of the vote</a> and took all 123 seats in the National Assembly.</p>
<h2>Khmer Rouge commander to autocratic leader</h2>
<p>Hun Sen rose to power after being installed as deputy prime minister and foreign minister by the Vietnamese forces that <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/pol-pot-overthrown">liberated Cambodia in 1979</a> from the Khmer Rouge – a murderous regime in which <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">Hun Sen served as a commander</a> – and then occupied the country for a decade.</p>
<p>With his country still under Vietnamese occupation, Hun Sen became prime minister in 1985 after his predecessor, Chan Sy, died in office. Since then, he has used the power of incumbency – along with a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/09/05/un-office-says-hun-sen-forces-executed-40/20d602e8-9078-41eb-8c34-2e385e86bcc7/">large dose of brute force</a> – to remain in office. </p>
<p>Even when the CPP <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/06/11/phnom-penh-rejects-results-of-election/c43a7f1e-abcf-4ebd-b3b2-fe757f96f930/">lost the popular vote in 1993</a>, Hun Sen was able to elbow his way into a prime ministership-sharing position as “second prime minister” with equal power to the “first prime minister,” Prince <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-cambodian-prime-minister-prince-norodom-ranariddh-has-died-information-2021-11-28/">Norodom Ranariddh</a>, in a deal engineered by Ranariddh’s father, King Norodom Sihanouk.</p>
<p>After falling out with his co-premier, Hun Sen <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2007/07/27/cambodia-july-1997-shock-and-aftermath">orchestrated a coup in 1997</a> and replaced Norodom Ranariddh. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00049910050007032">an election the following year</a>, Hun Sen resumed the role of sole prime minister and embarked on a campaign of repression – arranging for political enemies to be <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/01/12/30-years-hun-sen/violence-repression-and-corruption-cambodia">arrested, jailed and sometimes exiled</a>.</p>
<p>He let his guard down in 2012 by allowing opposition leaders Kem Sokha and Sam Rainsy to <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0008472/">form the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party</a>. The CNRP came within a whisker of defeating the CPP in the 2013 election – some might even argue that it did, but for who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-election-count/cambodia-election-crisis-deepens-as-opposition-rejects-results-idUSBRE97B02I20130812">controlled the counting of the votes</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, attempts to mount opposition to the CPP have been further blunted by the fact that Cambodia’s economy and society have undergone remarkable change – allowing Hun Sen to <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/prime-minister-hun-sen-shares-message-of-economic-growth--covid-response-success-with-north-american-diaspora-301546659.html">claim credit</a> as <a href="https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501245617/cambodias-economy-resilient-despite-external-factors-says-pm-hun-sen/">a sound manager of the economy</a>. Until the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s annual gross domestic product growth averaged nearly 8% <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/cambodia/overview">from 1998 through 2019</a>. Meanwhile, gross national income based on an average individual’s purchasing power <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=KH">has also grown sixfold</a> since 1995, from US$760 to $5,080.</p>
<p>It has come at a cost though. Economic and infrastructure growth has been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cambodia-protests/cambodian-farmers-rise-up-over-land-grabbing-idINSGE62I07I20100319">on the back of a land grab</a> that has disadvantaged rural farmers. I heard of one farmer who described economic development as meaning “they build a road and steal my land.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in hard hats shake hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535086/original/file-20230630-37566-mwecug.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen shakes hands with China’s ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wentian.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cambodias-prime-minister-hun-sen-shakes-hands-with-chinas-news-photo/1258495631?adppopup=true">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And frequently that road has been Chinese-built with loans that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/cambodia-seeks-more-loans-from-beijing-amid-fears-of-debt-trap-/6943062.html">Cambodian people and their progeny will have to repay</a>. </p>
<h2>From autocracy to nepotocracy?</h2>
<p>Yet, Hun Sen is unwilling to open his record to the scrutiny of voters or a free press.</p>
<p>In advance of the July 23 vote, the government has cracked down on independent media. One of the last truly independent outlets, the Voice of Democracy, was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64621595">shuttered by Hun Sen</a>. Its crime? To publish a story reporting that the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hun-sen-s-eldest-son-emerges-as-likely-successor-in-cambodia/7118136.html">prime minister’s son and heir apparent</a> signed, on behalf of his father, an official government donation to Turkey after the earthquake. Only the prime minister is allowed to sign off on foreign aid packages, and Hun Sen said the report had damaged the government’s reputation.</p>
<p>The source had been a senior government official. Yet, Voice of Democracy was nonetheless blamed and told to apologize, which it did, but then was still shuttered.</p>
<p>While Hun Sen has been successful in controlling the media and suppressing opposition in Cambodia, he is unable to prevent international scrutiny and sanction.</p>
<p>Cambodia’s anti-democratic rule and human rights abuses have been <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230310IPR77236/human-rights-breaches-in-iran-tunisia-and-cambodia">condemned by the European Union</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-cambodia-politics-idAFKBN1DE2LY">the White House</a> and <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/03/cambodia-un-experts-condemn-verdict-against-opposition-leader-kem-sokha">the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>Even prior to the most recent crackdown on opposition parties and independent press, the U.S. had <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0475">placed some Cambodian generals on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability list</a>, used to sanction “perpetrators of serious human rights abuse and corruption around the world.” The EU, for its part, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1469">cut by 20% the number of Cambodian goods eligible for zero duty imports</a> over human rights concerns – a move that will cost Cambodia an estimated 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in annual revenue.</p>
<p>But such moves have done little to nudge Cambodia toward democratic practices – and neither will Facebook’s decision to deprive him of a social media account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophal Ear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social media account of Cambodia’s long-serving leader was deleted amid a spat with Facebook over videoed threats of violence against opposition supporters.Sophal Ear, Associate Professor in the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057372023-05-31T12:39:43Z2023-05-31T12:39:43ZWhat is Theravada Buddhism? A scholar of Asian religions explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528340/original/file-20230525-17-7wxytv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=79%2C26%2C4282%2C2908&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A prayer altar in the main gathering hall at the temple Wat Ratchapradit in Bangkok, Thailand. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prayer-shrine-at-wat-ratchapradit-in-bangkok-thailand-a-news-photo/1485121746?adppopup=true">Pictures from History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Theravada, which means “the way of the elders,” is one of the two main schools of Buddhism. Its adherents consider Theravada to be the most authoritative branch because they believe their teachings come directly from the historical Buddha.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.rhodes.edu/bio/brooke-schedneck">scholar of Buddhism</a>, I explain in my 2023 book “<a href="https://www.shambhala.com/living-theravada-9781611809718.html">Living Theravada: Demystifying the People, Places and Practices of a Buddhist Tradition</a>” that Theravada Buddhism has a number of distinguishing features.</p>
<p>Its canonical literature is preserved in the ancient language of Pali, while other branches use Sanskrit, Chinese and Tibetan. An important ritual for Theravada monks includes collecting alms every morning. Another cultural feature in mainland Southeast Asia is that young men can enter into monastic life for a short time and return to lay life. Most often they do this as young boys, but a male at any age can become ordained for any length of time.</p>
<h2>Early development</h2>
<p>A combination of factors helped Theravada Buddhism take root first in Sri Lanka and then mainland Southeast Asia: Buddhism arrived in the region from India in the second century B.C.E. through the teachings of pilgrims, traveling monks and scholars who impressed local populations with the cosmopolitan nature of Buddhist culture. </p>
<p>Kings and kingdoms became deeply engaged with those ideas. Buddhism gave rulers a cosmic framework in which the kings had a central place and carried the responsibility to protect and support the Buddhist teachings. Monks acted as advisers and supporters to monarchs because the monastic institution depended on the success and sponsorship of the royalty.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person putting cooked rice in the alms bowl of a Buddhist monk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529140/original/file-20230530-23-9wf3s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Theravada monks collect alms from lay Buddhists during their morning rounds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/people-tak-bat-or-give-alm-to-monks-by-putting-royalty-free-image/1150323283?phrase=theravada+monks&adppopup=true">Sunphol Sorakul/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Besides monks, lay people could become involved with Buddhism in various ways. Women especially were valued as caregivers who supported the monastery through material offerings. </p>
<p>As Theravada became the dominant religious system within parts of South and Southeast Asia, it encompassed older Indigenous spirit traditions rather than degrading or purging them. This adaptation rather than competition allowed for Theravada Buddhism to become a cultural force in these regions.</p>
<h2>The scriptures</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/In_the_Buddha_s_Words/11X1h60Qc0IC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=bhikkhu+bodhi&printsec=frontcover">Pali Canon</a>, which records what are believed to be the Buddha’s words, is divided into three parts, called the <a href="https://www.accesstoinsight.org/tipitaka/index.html">Tipitaka</a>, or the Three Baskets: (1) the Sutta Pitaka, collections of stories and poetry expressing the Buddha’s teachings; (2) the Vinaya Pitaka, stories and discussions regarding the rules of monks; and (3) the Abhidhamma Pitaka, the philosophical and metaphysical explanation of Buddhist teachings and concepts.</p>
<p>These texts passed through oral recitation and memory shortly after the Buddha’s death, around the fifth century B.C.E. At that time the oral canon is believed to have been established with a gathering of 500 enlightened monks at the First Buddhist Council, held in modern-day India. By the first century B.C.E., the Pali Canon formed a fixed collection of written texts. </p>
<h2>Diversity in the tradition</h2>
<p>Practitioners following the Theravada tradition form part of the Buddhist diaspora throughout the world, but countries with a majority population of Theravada Buddhists live in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand.</p>
<p>Within these countries there is a rich diversity of traditions in Theravada Buddhism. Myanmar is known for popularizing a form of meditation called vipassana, or insight meditation; Thai Buddhists are considered to be holders of the orthodox tradition through their preservation of the monastic rules; Cambodia has a reputation for magical and supernatural expertise; Lao Buddhism is closely connected to spirits; and Sri Lankan religious practice is integrated with Hindu gods and demons.</p>
<p>These distinctions only begin to reveal a rich diversity of traditions underneath the surface. Theravada Buddhist beliefs and practices are more than monastic lineages and meditation techniques. The tradition offers a spectrum of spiritual resources to accommodate a variety of people’s wants, needs and aspirations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brooke Schedneck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Theravada Buddhism is the dominant religious system in several parts of South and Southeast Asia, but there is a rich diversity of beliefs and practices in this tradition.Brooke Schedneck, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies, Rhodes CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052612023-05-29T16:49:06Z2023-05-29T16:49:06ZNATO should tread carefully in Southeast Asia, where memories of colonialism linger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528098/original/file-20230524-29-vt5vrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C610%2C6000%2C3026&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An American guided-missile cruiser off the coast of Japan near Mt. Fuji. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(David Flewellyn/U.S. Navy via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_183254.htm">NATO’s incursion into the Indo-Pacific region</a> is a move that will exacerbate regional conflicts and tensions. That’s because NATO cannot be separated from the history of European colonialism and imperialism that shaped modern Asia — and plays a major role in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s41257-019-0026-6">Chinese nationalism</a> today. </p>
<p>In 2022, NATO declared that China was a <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/nato-and-the-china-challenge/">“challenge” to the alliance’s “interests, security and values.”</a> Recently, NATO has argued that <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/3867682-nato-increasingly-concerned-china-may-arm-russia-against-ukraine/">possible Chinese assistance to Russia</a> in its war against Ukraine makes China a military threat to Europe. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/japan-working-towards-opening-nato-liaison-office-tokyo-2023-05-09/">NATO is opening a liaison office in Japan</a> and is partners with Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. This may be a first step to deeper European involvement in Asia’s security architecture.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3220247/nato-office-japan-risks-further-entangling-ties-china-analysts">Japan argues that the war in Ukraine has destabilized the world</a>, and has invited NATO into the Indo-Pacific to deter China. However, NATO is widely distrusted in the non-western world. </p>
<h2>NATO: An American puppet?</h2>
<p>Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has acted as an extension of American power. NATO’s <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0020589300064733">bombing of Kosovo and Serbia in 1999 violated the United Nations Charter</a>. NATO’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0262728020964609">intervention in Afghanistan</a> was authorized by the UN, but it assisted the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-long-lasting-impact-of-the-u-s-invasion-of-iraq">illegal and devastating U.S. invasion of Iraq</a> by freeing American military resources.</p>
<p>The UN Security Council also gave the green light to NATO’s intervention in Libya, but NATO states <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/38/1/105/12085/A-Model-Humanitarian-Intervention-Reassessing-NATO">violated the terms of that resolution to pursue their own political and economic objectives in the North African country</a>. The result was the destruction of Libya and the spread of instability across North Africa. There are no states in Africa that would call NATO “a defensive alliance.”</p>
<p>Very few countries support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the non-western world — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2202925">including most of Southeast Asia</a> — <a href="https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/03/28/global-south-blame-us-nato-ukraine-war-russia/">generally accepts Russia’s claim that it invaded Ukraine to protect itself against the expansion of NATO</a>. To much of the world, the reality of western militarism makes Russia’s arguments entirely plausible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A teenaged boy carries a gun as he jumps from a tank." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528101/original/file-20230524-21-jd07zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Libyan youth carrying a gun jumps from a destroyed tank at the site of a NATO air strike at the outskirts of Benghazi, Libya in March 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nasser Nasser)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>China fuels regional prosperity</h2>
<p>Most Southeast Asian states have set aside their historical grievances with the West. They are committed to an international system that — somewhat accidentally — has served them well. </p>
<p>Regional states are concerned about the rise of China and its acts of intimidation. Yet <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chart-week-global-trade-through-us-china-lens">China is the No. 1 trading partner of most Asian states</a>. Regional prosperity depends on China’s success. </p>
<p>Asians are cautious about <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Asians-can-think-for-themselves-on-Taiwan">western provocations over issues like Taiwan</a>. Asians want the U.S. present to balance China’s power, but that doesn’t mean they want a European military alliance operating in their region. </p>
<p>In particular, states that are part of <a href="https://asean.org/">the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)</a> want to manage regional security without outside interference. </p>
<p>Southeast Asians’ perception of a predatory international system is based on their experiences with European colonialism. Their focus on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0551274042000261524">protecting state sovereignty</a> is directly linked to this history. Their <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/07/28/improving-the-asean-outlook-on-the-indo-pacific/">stated preference</a> is to build economic and diplomatic connections to manage regional conflict.</p>
<p>China has <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/12/28/unsure-of-us-commitment-asian-countries-pursuing-self-reliance-2/">also prospered under the existing system and has a stake in its continuation</a>. But it’s considered a threat because it will not be subservient to western power, especially American. </p>
<p>Consequently, it’s been encircled by more than <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/14/david_vine_us_bases_china_philippines">300 American military bases</a> and subjected to intense U.S. <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/gauging-the-impact-of-the-china-us-trade-war/">economic</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/19/demarais-backfire-sanctions-us-china-technology-war-semiconductors-export-controls-biden/">technological sanctions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of soldiers in battle fatigues walk along a grassy path." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528102/original/file-20230524-41372-q4xy6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. soldiers from the 2nd Infantry Division walk after disembarking from a Blackhawk UH-60 helicopter at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, on May 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Century of humiliation</h2>
<p>Chinese nationalism <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3150233/china-history-matters-still-century-humiliation">has been stoked by what’s known as the “century of humiliation”</a> from 1839 to 1949, when European powers, the U.S. and Japan took part in seizing Chinese territory, imposing unequal treaties and brutalizing the Chinese people. </p>
<p>NATO is a European military alliance that is establishing a strong working relationship with Japan. This plays directly into China’s concerns that the same powers that humiliated it in the past are lining up for a second attempt. </p>
<p>Asian states that find the Russian explanation for the war in Ukraine plausible will clearly be concerned that NATO’s move into the region is duplicating the same hostile dynamic of backing an adversary into a corner.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An Asian man and a balding man raise their champagne glasses with a colourful mural behind them and a large bouquet of flowers on the table in front of them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528103/original/file-20230524-28-khwk6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during a dinner at the Kremlin in Russia in March 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pavel Byrkin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the past several centuries, <a href="https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/why-did-western-europe-dominate-globe-47696">world politics have been defined by western colonialism and violence</a>. That <a href="https://thecorrespondent.com/32/the-past-is-still-present-why-colonialism-deserves-better-coverage">era never really ended</a>. </p>
<p>After the Second World War, Europe passed the torch of global <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/18/694700303/the-history-of-american-imperialism-from-bloody-conquest-to-bird-poop">western imperialism to the U.S.</a> Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. — often assisted by NATO states — has frequently engaged in illegal violence around the world, most notably with its invasion of Iraq. </p>
<p>Therefore, it’s not surprising NATO claims that it’s merely a “defensive alliance” are viewed skeptically in the non-western world. What is surprising is that western powers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2023.2193420">seemingly cannot understand why their insistence that they represent a “rules-based international order” fails to resonate with much of the globe</a>. </p>
<p>NATO’s growing presence in the Pacific evokes a painful history that the western world has never confronted or fully acknowledged. NATO ignores how its recent actions affect how it’s perceived in the larger world and how those actions lend credence to states that see NATO as a threat. </p>
<p>Its presence in the Indo-Pacific can easily be construed as a new attempt to reassert western military domination of the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>NATO’s growing presence in the Pacific evokes a painful history that the western world has never confronted or fully acknowledged.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036462023-04-15T12:42:22Z2023-04-15T12:42:22ZMilitary violence in Myanmar is worsening amid fierce resistance and international ambivalence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521085/original/file-20230414-28-pqalii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C40%2C2982%2C1953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A village elder stands outside a school destroyed by aircraft fire in Shan State.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/village-elder-is-standing-in-front-of-the-village-school-news-photo/1246147334?adppopup=true">Mai Thomas/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the early days of a brutal 2021 military crackdown on anti-coup protesters in Myanmar, members of the nascent resistance movement began asking “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/myanmar-protester-dead-bodies-united-nations-b1809046.html">how many dead bodies</a>” it would take for the world community to act.</p>
<p>More than two years on from a coup that installed military rule in the Southeast Asian country, pro-democracy protesters say they have <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/the-world-myanmar/global-community-slammed-for-failure-to-act-over-myanmar-junta-atrocities.html">yet to receive an adequate answer</a>.</p>
<p>On April 11, 2023, the country’s armed forces dropped <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/12/myanmar-airstrike-on-civilians-sparks-global-outcry-as-witnesses-describe-attack">multiple bombs</a> on a gathering in Pazigyi, a village in Sagaing Region, killing <a href="https://apnews.com/article/airstrikes-military-myanmar-village-918fd636bb81153928ab7481e06423e5">around 100 people</a>, it has been estimated, including many children.</p>
<p>Such attacks are not uncommon, if not usually so deadly. The day before the Sagaing massacre, the Myanmar air force <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/eleven-chin-civilians-killed-in-myanmar-regime-airstrikes.html">dropped bombs in Falam</a>, Chin State, killing 11 people. In fact, since civil war broke out, 3,240 civilians and pro-democracy activists <a href="https://aappb.org/?p=24712">have been killed</a>, according to the human rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. In response, a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1153150529/resistance-to-military-rule-in-myanmar-remains-steady-2-years-after-army-seized-">fierce resistance movement</a> has emerged, with an <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/understanding-peoples-defense-forces-myanmar">estimated 65,000 fighters</a> using ambushes and other guerrilla tactics against military targets.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.niu.edu/clas/world-languages/about/directory/than.shtml">scholar on Myanmar’s history</a>, I would argue that the escalating violence can be attributed to two main factors, one internal and one external: a miscalculation by the military over the resistance of Myanmar’s people, and ambivalence from the international community.</p>
<h2>From coup to civil war</h2>
<p>Myanmar has witnessed <a href="https://aappb.org/?cat=109">killings by the military almost daily</a> since generals <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/myanmar-coup-2021-explained-in-30-seconds">seized control of the country in 2021</a>. The coup ended the short period of democratic rule under <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1991/kyi/facts/">Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi</a>’s party, the National League for Democracy.</p>
<p>But there are, I believe, reasons to suggest that the Myanmar military grossly miscalculated the timing of the coup, and underestimated the sentiment of a people unwilling to give up the freedom and prosperity they experienced under democracy.</p>
<p><iframe id="gYbI0" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gYbI0/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In this, the military may have been misled by the experience of their counterparts in neighboring Thailand. In 2014, generals in Thailand <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thailand-coup-a-brief-history-of-past-military-coups-0">launched a coup</a> ending months of political instability and promising a process back to democratic rule. That coup was met by sporadic protests, but no unified armed resistance emerged in response.</p>
<p>The Myanmar military similarly promised “free and fair elections” <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62373975">further down the line</a> after its coup.</p>
<p>Unlike in Thailand, people in Myanmar – especially younger generations that came of age in the democratic decade after 2010 – fiercely resisted the army’s takeover and were skeptical of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/1/myanmar-coup-military-repeats-election-promise-people-strike">claims that it would restore democracy</a>.</p>
<p>After peaceful protests following the coup were <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56636345">met with live ammunition</a>, pro-democracy activists turned to armed resistance.</p>
<p>In the years since, many young people have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1153150529/resistance-to-military-rule-in-myanmar-remains-steady-2-years-after-army-seized-">undergone military training</a> – often by armed ethnic groups that already existed along the country’s borders – and fought back under the umbrella resistance group, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/understanding-peoples-defense-forces-myanmar">People’s Defense Forces</a>.</p>
<p>Protracted counter-coup activities have humiliated the Myanmar army. The commander in chief, Min Aung Hlaing, recently conceded that two years after the coup, the military was still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/myanmar-junta-chief-vows-crush-resistance-forces-rare-speech/102152844">not in control of swaths of the country</a>. He vowed to intensify a crackdown against people <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/myanmar-junta-chief-vows-crush-resistance-forces-rare-speech/102152844">he branded “terrorists</a>.”</p>
<p>The growing instability, Min Aung Hlaing said, meant that promised elections – after which the military was to hand over power to a civilian government – cannot be scheduled.</p>
<h2>Uniting around a common enemy</h2>
<p>Myanmar’s military leaders have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-myanmar-army-min-aung-hlaing-aung-san-suu-kyi-cc6402c492edbc1fbaefef5e6e9dbf21">vowed to annihilate</a> resistance groups. Yet there are reasons to believe that the resistance is only getting stronger. </p>
<p>Despite slow initial progress to show a common front, the Bamar majority and minority ethic groups such as Karen, Chin, Kachin, Rakhine and Karenni appear to be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/05/asia/myanmar-protests-ethnic-minorities-intl-hnk/index.html">unifying against military rule</a>. And resistance fighters have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1153150529/resistance-to-military-rule-in-myanmar-remains-steady-2-years-after-army-seized-">widespread support</a> throughout the country.</p>
<p>A lot will now depend on whether Myanmar soldiers lose the will to fight. Already there are signs of strain. The military is reportedly facing an acute shortage of new recruits, resulting in <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/women-recruits-being-trained-for-combat-roles-by-myanmar-junta.html">women being trained to fight in combat</a>. People in the <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-struggling-to-recruit-new-officers.html">Bamar heartlands</a>, including Sagaing where the April 11 massacre occurred, are refusing to let their sons join the Myanmar army.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of men with camouflage helmets and guns. One looks at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521086/original/file-20230414-20-l1d8jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Military officers march during Armed Forces Day in Myanmar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeekAsiaPhotoGallery/cde66b8eac814040b3e7e1f39ed927d7/photo?Query=Myanmar&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=38717&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In such circumstances, the Myanmar army is increasingly relying on guns and bombs rather than troop numbers.</p>
<p>But the longer the resistance lasts, the more humiliating it will be for a junta that has upped its annual spending on the military to an estimated <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-increases-military-budget-to-us2-7-billion.html">US$2.7 billion</a> – more than 25% of the national budget – largely to suppress its own population.</p>
<h2>Leaving the oil and gas taps running</h2>
<p>These internal dynamics have taken place largely in the absence of intense scrutiny from the international community, <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/has-the-international-community-abandoned-myanmar-99854">pro-democracy activists say</a>.</p>
<p>The Ukraine war has seemingly pushed Myanmar down the list of international concerns. It has also exacerbated cracks among the global powers that would, otherwise, likely be on the same page over the worsening situation – prolonged violence and instability in Myanmar is not in any country’s strategic interests, not least China’s or the United States’.</p>
<p>Both the U.S. and the United Nations have made statements <a href="https://www.state.gov/marking-two-years-since-the-military-coup-in-burma/">in support of democracy</a> in Myanmar, and <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2023/sgsm21759.doc.htm">condemned killings</a>. </p>
<p>But concrete action – which to date has been largely limited to <a href="https://earthrights.org/media_release/new-report-shines-light-on-flaws-in-international-use-of-sanctions-in-response-to-myanmar-coup/">sanctions on individuals and entities</a> – falls well short of what <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/support-myanmars-junta-only-prolongs-countrys-conflict">human rights groups</a> <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/06/myanmars-junta-benefits-weak-international-response">have demanded</a>. There has, for example, been <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/01/myanmar-coup-second-anniversary/">no comprehensive global arms embargo</a> despite the use of weapons against civilians. Neither has Myanmar been <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/11/01/asean-act-stop-myanmar-military-abuses">shut off from foreign currency revenues</a>. And the country is still able to purchase the jet fuel being used by bombers, despite calls for a <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/myanmar-atrocity-commentary-04122023130016.html">global ban on such sales</a> to accompany the recent sanctions imposed by some governments, <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1364">including the U.S</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, sanctions have yet to bite Myanmar’s energy sector. Activist group Justice for Myanmar has identified <a href="https://www.justiceformyanmar.org/stories/the-international-oilfield-services-companies-supporting-the-myanmar-juntas-oil-and-gas-industry">22 oil and gas companies</a> from countries including the U.S. that have continued to provide revenue to Myanmar’s generals during the civil war. Indeed, U.S. oil companies including Chevron <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/us/politics/chevron-myanmar-sanctions.html">lobbied hard against broad sanctions</a> against the Myanmar military.</p>
<p>The failure to shut off oil revenue allows Myanmar’s generals – for whom oil and gas is a <a href="https://www.mizzima.com/article/eu-imposes-sanctions-myanma-oil-and-gas-enterprise-moge">major revenue source</a> – to fund the military.</p>
<p>To many within the resistance movement, the reluctance of the international community to exert more pressure on the country’s military looks like global collusion. It also has the potential to prolong the violence by funding the military’s campaign.</p>
<h2>Beware the tiger’s tail</h2>
<p>A well-known Myanmar phrase <a href="https://www.irrawaddy.com/from-the-archive/letting-go-of-the-tigers-tail.html">warns against the dangers</a> of “catching hold of a tiger’s tail” – once you do so there is no turning back; let go and you will be killed.</p>
<p>It aptly sums up the position now for Myanmar’s military rulers and the resistance fighters being drawn deeper into conflict with each atrocity. They are fighting for the past, present and the future and can’t let go now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tharaphi Than does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since seizing power in a 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military has killed more than 3,000 civilians and pro-democracy activists. But the army has struggled to contain an armed resistance movement.Tharaphi Than, Associate Professor of World Cultures and Languages, Northern Illinois UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002142023-04-04T12:16:46Z2023-04-04T12:16:46ZHow much is the world’s most productive river worth? Here’s how experts estimate the value of nature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519125/original/file-20230403-22-i7bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5520%2C3668&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Establishing the financial worth of a river's fish is complicated when many people don't sell the fish they catch.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-january-5-2018-shows-women-removing-news-photo/902376180">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Southeast Asia’s Mekong may be the most important river in the world. Known as the “mother of waters,” it is home to the world’s largest inland fishery, and the huge amounts of sediments it transports feed some of the planet’s most fertile farmlands. Tens of millions of people depend on it for their livelihoods.</p>
<p>But how valuable is it in monetary terms? Is it possible to put a dollar value on the multitude of ecosystem services it provides, to help keep those services healthy into the future?</p>
<p>That’s what my research colleagues and I are <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">trying to figure out</a>, <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">focusing on</a> two countries that hold <a href="https://wwfasia.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/key_findings_mekong_river_in_the_economy.pdf">the river’s most productive areas</a> for fishing and farming: Cambodia and Vietnam.</p>
<p>Understanding the value of a river is essential for good management and decision-making, such as where to develop infrastructure and where to protect nature. This is particularly <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/mekong-river-cambodia-recovery">true of the Mekong</a>, which has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/trouble-mekong">come under enormous pressure</a> in recent years from overfishing, dam building and climate change, and where decisions about development projects often do not take environmental costs into account.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown river winds through a steep cliffs with a road and some buildings along the banks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mekong River winds through six countries, across 2,700 miles (about 4,350 kilometers) from the mountains to the sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/downstream-from-the-controversial-gongguoqiao-dam-on-the-news-photo/479183194">Leisa Tyler/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Rivers such as the Mekong function as life-support systems for entire regions,” said Rafael Schmitt, lead scientist at the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University, who has studied the Mekong system for many years. “Understanding their values, in monetary terms, can be critical to fairly judge the impacts that infrastructure development will have on these functions.”</p>
<p>Calculating that value isn’t simple, though. Most of the natural benefits that a river brings are, naturally, under water, and thus hidden from direct observation. Ecosystem services may be hard to track because rivers often flow over large distances and sometimes across national borders.</p>
<h2>Enter natural capital accounting</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbd.int/business/projects/natcap.shtml">theory of natural capital</a> suggests that ecosystem services provided by nature – such as water filtration, flood control and raw materials – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5478.395">have economic value</a> that should be taken into account when making decisions that affect these systems.</p>
<p>Some people <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/15/price-natural-world-destruction-natural-capital">argue that it’s morally wrong</a> to put a financial price on nature, and that doing so undermines people’s intrinsic motivation to value and protect nature. Critics say valuations <a href="https://neweconomics.org/2020/01/can-a-natural-capital-approach-restore-nature-in-the-uk">often do not capture</a> the <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/6569122-Pelenc-Weak%20Sustainability%20versus%20Strong%20Sustainability.pdf">whole worth of a natural service</a>.</p>
<p>Proponents maintain that natural capital accounting puts a spotlight on <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-nature-will-give-governments-and-businesses-more-reasons-to-protect-it-153968">natural systems’ value</a> when weighed against commercial pressures. They say it brings visibility to natural benefits that are <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/case-natural-capital-accounting">otherwise hidden</a>, using language that policymakers can better understand and utilize. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people in a motor boat move through a section of lake with trees and small islands of vegetation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than a million people live on or around Tonle Sap lake, the world’s largest inland fishery. Climate change and dams can affect its water level and fish stocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-october-13-2020-shows-a-boat-driving-news-photo/1230240288">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several countries have incorporated natural capital accounting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.09.008">in recent years</a>, including <a href="https://www.wavespartnership.org/en/knowledge-center/natural-capital-accounting-and-policy-costa-rica">Costa Rica</a>, <a href="https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5114">Canada</a> and Botswana. Often, that has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2021/gretchen-daily-natural-capital-environment/">led to better protection</a> of natural resources, such as mangrove forests that protect fragile coastlines. The U.S. government also <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/01/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-releases-national-strategy-to-put-nature-on-the-nations-balance-sheet/">announced a strategy</a> in 2023 to start developing metrics to account for the value of underlying natural assets, such as critical minerals, forests and rivers.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://seea.un.org/news/new-business-and-natural-capital-accounting-case-studies-released">natural capital studies</a> have largely focused on terrestrial ecosystems, where the trade-offs between human interventions and conservation are easier to see. </p>
<p>When valuing rivers, the challenges run much deeper. “If you cut down a forest, the impact is directly visible,” Schmitt points out. “A river might look pristine, but its functioning may be profoundly altered by a faraway dam.”</p>
<h2>Accounting for hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydropower provides one example of the challenges in making decisions about a river without understanding its full value. It’s often much easier to <a href="https://www.omnicalculator.com/ecology/hydroelectric-power">calculate the value of a hydropower dam</a> than the value of the river’s fish, or sediment that eventually becomes fertile farmland.</p>
<p>The rivers of the Mekong Basin have been widely exploited for power production in recent decades, with a proliferation of dams in China, Laos and elsewhere. The <a href="https://monitor.mekongwater.org/virtual-gauges/?v=1642195188734">Mekong Dam Monitor</a>, run by the nonprofit <a href="https://www.stimson.org/project/mekong-dam-monitor/">Stimson Center</a>, monitors dams and their environmental impacts in the Mekong Basin in near-real time.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Map showing the river through Vietnam and Cambodia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The lower Mekong River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/lower-mekong-river-basin-0">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While hydropower is <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/benefits-hydropower">clearly an economic benefit</a> – powering homes and businesses, and contributing to a country’s GDP – dams also <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/is-building-more-dams-the-way-to-save-rivers">alter river flows</a> and block both fish migration and sediment delivery.</p>
<p>Droughts in the Mekong in recent years, <a href="https://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/">linked to El Niño</a> and exacerbated by climate change, were made worse by dam operators holding back water. That caused water levels to drop to historical low levels, with devastating consequences for fisheries. In the Tonlé Sap Lake, Southeast Asia’s largest lake and the heart of the Mekong fishery, thousands of fishers were <a href="https://www.voacambodia.com/a/fishers-leave-crisis-hit-tonle-sap-lake-in-search-of-livelihoods-ashore/6695988.html">forced to abandon their occupation</a>, and many <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/mekong-river-fish-migrations">commercial fisheries</a> had to close.</p>
<figure>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="400" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7b7e5f2e-cf6e-11ed-b5bd-6595d9b17862"></iframe>
</figure><figure><figcaption>Hydropower dams like the one in the photos above in Cambodia can disrupt a river’s natural services. The Sesan River (Tonlé San) and Srepok River are tributaries of the Mekong. Move the slider to see how the dam changed the water flow. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91761/a-new-reservoir-in-cambodia">NASA Earth Observatory</a></figcaption></figure>
<p>One project under scrutiny now in the Mekong Basin is a small dam being constructed on the Sekong River, a tributary, in Laos near the Cambodian border. While the dam is expected to generate a very small amount of electricity, <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/viet-nam/202205/sekong-a-dam-lao-pdr-and-mekong-delta-a-moment-decision-viet-nam">preliminary studies show</a> it will have a dramatically negative impact on many migratory fish populations in the Sekong, which remains the last major free-flowing tributary in the Mekong River Basin.</p>
<h2>Valuing the ‘lifeblood of the region’</h2>
<p>The Mekong River originates in the Tibetan highlands and runs for 2,700 miles (about 4,350 kilometers) through six countries before emptying into the South China Sea.</p>
<p>Its <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">ecological and biological riches</a> are clearly considerable. The river system is home to over 1,000 species of fish, and the annual fish catch in just the lower basin, below China, is estimated at more than <a href="https://www.mrcmekong.org/our-work/topics/fisheries/">2 million metric tons</a>. </p>
<p>“The river has been the lifeblood of the region for centuries,” says Zeb Hogan, a biologist at the University of Nevada, Reno, who leads the USAID-funded <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">Wonders of the Mekong</a> research project, which I work on. “It is the ultimate renewable resource – if it is allowed to function properly.”</p>
<p>Establishing the financial worth of fish is more complicated than it appears, though. Many people in the Mekong region are <a href="https://www.theforgottenintl.org/in-the-world-today/subsistence-fishing/">subsistence fishers</a> for whom fish have little to no market value but are crucial to their survival.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two women row a small boat in through a narrow channel in the Mekong Delta. Another boat is passing them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is essential to transportation, food and culture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-on-a-rowing-boat-on-mekong-river-near-my-tho-village-news-photo/849862626">Sergi Reboredo/VW PICS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The river is also home to some of the largest freshwater fish in the world, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adb2956">giant stingray and catfish</a> and critically endangered species. “How do you value a species’ right to exist?” asks Hogan.</p>
<p>Sediment, which fertilizes floodplains and builds up the Mekong Delta, has been relatively easy to quantify, says Schmitt, the Stanford scientist. According to his analysis, the Mekong, in its natural state, delivers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2175">160 million tons of sediment each year</a>.</p>
<p>However, dams let through only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2175">about 50 million tons</a>, while <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-is-facing-a-global-sand-crisis-83557">sand mining</a> in Cambodia and Vietnam extracts 90 million, meaning more sediment is blocked or removed from the river than is delivered to its natural destination. As a result, the Mekong Delta, which naturally would receive much of the sediment, has suffered <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/livelihoods/in-vietnam-mekong-delta-sand-mining-means-lost-homes-and-fortunes/">tremendous river erosion</a>, with thousands of homes being swept away.</p>
<h2>A potential ‘World Heritage Site’ designation</h2>
<p>A river’s natural services may also include <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071279">cultural and social benefits</a> that can be difficult to place monetary values on.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/cambodia-seeks-unesco-world-heritage-status-to-protect-a-mekong-biodiversity-hotspot/">new proposal</a> seeks to designate a bio-rich stretch of the Mekong River in northern Cambodia as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. If successful, such a designation may bring with it a certain amount of prestige that is hard to put in numbers.</p>
<p>The complexities of the Mekong River make our project a challenging undertaking. At the same time, it is the rich diversity of natural benefits that the Mekong provides that make this work important, so that future decisions can be made based on true costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Lovgren works as a research scientist on the Wonders of the Mekong project, which is funded by USAID, at the University of Nevada, Reno.</span></em></p>Putting a dollar value on nature has staunch opponents who say it’s morally wrong, but without it, building dams and other infrastructure can run roughshod over vital ecosystems.Stefan Lovgren, Research scientist College of Science, University of Nevada, RenoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2017572023-03-14T04:41:22Z2023-03-14T04:41:22ZWith AUKUS, Australia has wedded itself to a risky US policy on China – and turned a deaf ear to the region<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515076/original/file-20230314-599-sbpcqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=335%2C26%2C3133%2C2300&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stefan Rousseau/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much has been made of Australia’s renewed engagement with Asia and the Pacific since Labor came to power. </p>
<p>Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/penny-wong-launches-charm-offensive-in-pacific-20220526-p5aow0.html">charm offensive</a>” in the Pacific was seen as the beginning of a new process of listening to the region, not dictating to it. Labor’s Asia-Pacific policy has also been <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/01/penny-wong-australia-foreign-policy/">hailed</a> as striking a balance between the US and China. </p>
<p>In announcing the AUKUS submarine deal in the US this week, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/aukus-remarks">Prime Minister Anthony Albanese</a> emphasised it was aimed at allowing nations in the region to “act in their sovereign interests free from coercion” and would “promote security by investing in our relationships across our region”. </p>
<p>The reality of the submarine deal is not, however, in that spirit. Instead, it leads Australia towards half a century of armaments build up and restricted sovereignty within a US-led alliance aimed at containing China. </p>
<p>Worse, it hearkens back to a colonial vision of the region as rightfully dominated by Anglophone powers who enjoy a military advantage over others that live there. </p>
<p>In the process, it has also deliberately endangered the spirit – if not the letter of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-southeast-asia-so-concerned-about-aukus-and-australias-plans-for-nuclear-submarines-168260">nuclear non-proliferation agreements</a> – and heightened what our neighbours see as a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/malaysia-warns-aukus-pact-will-spark-nuclear-arms-race-in-indo-pacific-20210918-p58stm.html">destabilising and unnecessary naval race</a> that can only further provoke China. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Penny Wong in the Pacific." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515085/original/file-20230314-24-zvb6yf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Penny Wong has promised Australia will be a ‘generous, respectful and reliable’ partner to the Pacific.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Department of Foreign Affairs/AP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Relinquishing sovereignty of foreign policy</h2>
<p>The deal confirms two things that nations in the region have long suspected. </p>
<p>First, Australia is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/mar/09/media-hype-of-war-with-china-forgets-the-impact-on-australian-society-yun-jiang">incapable of imagining an Asia-Pacific region</a> that is not militarily dominated by the United States. </p>
<p>In addition, the deal suggests we are still politically attached to the United Kingdom – the post-Brexit ghost of a past British empire once again <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/british-subs-could-patrol-indo-pacific-while-australia-procures-its-own-fleet-20220901-p5befb.html">looking east of the Suez Canal</a> towards Asia and the Pacific. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-pact-born-in-secrecy-will-have-huge-implications-for-australia-and-the-region-168065">The AUKUS pact, born in secrecy, will have huge implications for Australia and the region</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The second is that, despite the window dressing, Australia’s deafness to regional misgivings has not improved since the change to a Labor government. </p>
<p>AUKUS and the nuclear submarine deal are far from universally admired in Asia and the Pacific. The ASEAN bloc has repeatedly expressed its wish to avoid an arms race in the region. <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/are-australia-s-neighbours-ready-for-aukus-20230301-p5colo">Regional powers</a> such as Indonesia and Malaysia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/we-are-worried-indonesia-and-malaysia-express-concern-over-australias-nuclear-submarine-plan">have made this clear</a> on several occasions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1440539784087175182"}"></div></p>
<p>Other approaches to regional security do exist. And our neighbours have their own sense of how the Asia-Pacific can best balance the growing influence of both the US and China.</p>
<p><a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/why-dont-malaysian-policymakers-view-china-as-a-threat/">Malaysia</a>, for example, has emphasised that so clearly identifying China as an enemy will be a self-fulfilling prophesy. The <a href="https://devpolicy.org/aukus-undermines-australias-pacific-family-20211104/">Pacific states</a> have warned against becoming so clearly aligned with the US and sparking a renewed arms race in the Pacific. <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/kiwis-firmly-remain-anti-nuclear-as-aukus-submarines-draw-near-20230207-p5cih6">New Zealand</a>, too, says it sees no sense in moving towards a nuclear-fuelled foreign policy. </p>
<p>Instead of taking these concerns seriously and engaging in deep regional diplomacy to head off future conflict, Australia seems to have has given up sovereign control of its foreign policy. </p>
<p>Canberra is moving towards what former Prime Ministers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/08/richard-marles-insists-aukus-submarine-deal-will-not-erode-australias-military-sovereignty">Malcolm Turnbull</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/13/paul-keating-speculates-king-charles-could-renounce-uks-claim-on-australia">Paul Keating</a> have respectively called “shared sovereignty” and “outsourced” strategic sovereignty. </p>
<p>Contrary to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/08/richard-marles-insists-aukus-submarine-deal-will-not-erode-australias-military-sovereignty">assurances of Defence Minister Richard Marles</a>, Australia has decided to become absolutely central to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bc6685c1-6f17-4e9e-aaaa-922083c06e70">US policy of containing and encircling China</a>. Retreating from the assumed military role that comes with this would take the kind of foreign policy courage that has not been seen for many decades.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-southeast-asia-so-concerned-about-aukus-and-australias-plans-for-nuclear-submarines-168260">Why is southeast Asia so concerned about AUKUS and Australia's plans for nuclear submarines?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>War with China is not a certainty</h2>
<p>Th submarine deal also comes against a backdrop of some <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-faces-the-threat-of-war-with-china-within-three-years-and-we-re-not-ready-20230221-p5cmag.html">dangerously incautious media predictions</a> that Australia could be at war with China within three years. </p>
<p>Scarcely to be heard is the view that if war were to occur, it would be a war of choice, not a war to defend Australian sovereignty, even broadly defined. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1635454434120720386"}"></div></p>
<p>Bad assumptions about the future can unfortunately drive bad policy. The assumption of a regional war is in part a consequence of viewing China through the lens of the faulty idea of an inescapable “<a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158816/us-and-china-war-why-thucydides-trap-or-cold-war-analogies-are">Thucydides Trap</a>”. </p>
<p>For adherents of this belief, war between the US and China is simply a natural fact dictated by history when a rising power challenges an established power, similar to what happened in the war between Athens and Sparta in ancient Greece.</p>
<p>Chinese brinkmanship and assertion of control over disputed territories and waters, however, is not a Greek tragedy. And Australian strategic decision-makers should not take for granted that war is coming either between China and Taiwan, or China and the United States – much less with Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-does-not-want-war-at-least-not-yet-its-playing-the-long-game-160093">China does not want war, at least not yet. It's playing the long game</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Herein lies the danger of handing over our sovereign foreign policy decision-making to the US and relaxing into the faux security offered by AUKUS. </p>
<p>We are led to the false sense there is no alternative but to be involved militarily wherever the US is in a conflict, whether that be in Iraq, Afghanistan or a future war over Taiwan. </p>
<p>Ceding Australia’s capacity to make serious decisions about war and peace cannot be accepted unless all pretence of Australian sovereignty is abandoned. Australia could have tried to work towards a regional approach with other Asian and Pacific countries. But this week’s agreement makes that all but impossible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council (FT210100448 - Strategic Friendship: Anglo-German Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region). </span></em></p>Labor has touted a renewed engagement with the Asia-Pacific since coming to power. The submarine deal, however, is not in this spirit.Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920152022-10-17T07:46:28Z2022-10-17T07:46:28Z‘Do you have children?’: how common greetings in Asian communities can feel loaded with stigma for women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489098/original/file-20221011-23-g6rjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4091%2C2721&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Artem Kovalev from Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tina (not her real name), in her early 40s, is an accomplished woman from a Southeast Asian country, with a postgraduate degree under her belt. </p>
<p>Being far away from home for many years, Tina has found that local Southeast Asian communities in her adopted country of Aotearoa New Zealand form her new family. However, interacting with them means that she has to cope with intrusive questions like “are you married?” or “do you have any children?”.</p>
<p>In many Asian communities, questions on marital status and descendants are culturally acceptable. Partly, it’s due to the collectivist cultures, so it’s a “normal” question to ask friends, colleagues or even strangers.</p>
<p>But for Tina, who has been living in Aotearoa New Zealand for several years, the questions make her uncomfortable. </p>
<p>“It is a constant reminder that we are not perfect, or we lack something because we don’t have any children yet. I know they are nice and kind people, and their question is not meant to be harmful, but after a while, I don’t feel comfortable,” said Tina, who has been been dealing with fertility issues for several years.</p>
<p>For Tina, what has been perceived as a “normal” social greeting among Asian communities is felt as a stigma against unmarried and childless women. </p>
<p>Tina is not alone in feeling this way. </p>
<p>Our current research project unpacks how questions about children can carry stigma. We found these questions impact self esteem and women’s connections to their families and communities.</p>
<h2>Who we spoke with, and what they said</h2>
<p>Focusing our research on Southeast Asian and South Asian women and couples, we interviewed 23 women – including the woman we’ve called Tina – who migrated from their birth country to Aotearoa New Zealand. These respondents have been through fertility issues and involuntary childlessness.</p>
<p>Our preliminary research findings show how questions such as “Are you married?” and “Have you got any children?” are met with different interpretations from the questioner and by the respondent.</p>
<p>From the questioner’s viewpoint, such questions are simply common social or cultural greetings. They are comparable to “how are you?” in the Western world. </p>
<p>But the questions are coming from an assumption that every adult woman in most Asian countries is heterosexual, married and, presumably, a mother. </p>
<p>Assuming that everyone follows a similar cultural path, they ask these questions as part of their social understanding. Our participants understood that the questions are not necessarily coming from a bad place and it should be understood as “social conventions” or part of the “daily greetings”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489099/original/file-20221011-16-7dfr08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Liv Bruce from Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But for the women being asked these questions, it can feel stigmatising, scrutinising and even “punishing”.</p>
<p>According to our participants, the questions tend to highlight what they are <em>not</em>, as opposed to what they are, have, or have accomplished. They highlight their “childlessness”, while seemingly discounting their being, either as a woman or as a functional human being.</p>
<h2>The impact of stigma – even when unintended</h2>
<p>In approaching this issue, we adopted Canadian-American sociologist Erving Goffman’s definition of <a href="https://cdn.penguin.co.uk/dam-assets/books/9780241548011/9780241548011-sample.pdf">stigma</a> as an “<a href="https://books.google.co.nz/books/about/Stigma.html?id=5YBiQgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y">attribute that is deeply discrediting</a>”, in which an individual is perceived to be an “outlier” or not “normal” within their community. </p>
<p>For our study, we looked at the stigma associated with a “harmless”, “innocent”, and culturally common question, “have you got a child?” – both in the women’s birth countries and in Aotearoa New Zealand.</p>
<p>While the question may seem harmless, our participants found it quite the opposite. </p>
<p>They said the question felt like it devalued their being and positioned them as a tainted and discounted individual, due to their involuntary childlessness. </p>
<p>This question has given the participants space to revisit their identity as a woman, as an Indonesian, as a Malay, as an Indian, as a Sri Lankan, and as an Asian – but not in a favourable way. </p>
<h2>Reduced social connections and self-esteem</h2>
<p>We also learn that there are several social consequences and impacts from the question about children.</p>
<p>First, this stigma has caused social withdrawal and social exclusion among several of these women, both from the ethnic communities in Aotearoa New Zealand and from their relatives in their birth countries. </p>
<p>We found that our female respondents received more questions and shared more shame and blame about their childlessness than their husbands. They were stigmatised both in their ethnic communities in Aotearoa New Zealand and in their home countries, by their extended family members, such as uncles, aunties, even nephews and also acquaintances. </p>
<p>These have caused them to withdraw from the social ethnic gatherings in Aotearoa New Zealand. Subsequently, they tried to distance themselves from connecting to their family back in their home country by, for example, calling family less often, so they didn’t need to answer the same old questions. </p>
<p>Other couples tend to shorten their vacation time – such as cutting a one month holiday to two weeks – to protect themselves from social and public scrutiny. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489100/original/file-20221011-26-gxafev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam Nemeroff from Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Questions about children or being married have also caused women to suffer from low self-esteem. </p>
<p>Our respondents reported that the stigma not only devalued, rejected and excluded them from their social groups, but also positioned them as a “less perfect” woman. </p>
<p>Thus, social exclusion and withdrawal were often the defence mechanism to protect themselves from their “own” people’s scrutiny and judgement.</p>
<p>After being psychologically and physically exhausted from all the fertility treatments, protecting themselves from social judgement was the least they can do for their emotional health and well-being.</p>
<p>It’s time to rethink if the questions we ask and treat as “part of our Asian-ness” are really so harmless.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nelly Martin-Anatias receives funding from Marsden. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharyn Graham Davies receives funding from Marsden. </span></em></p>What might seem like ‘normal’ social greetings among many Asian communities can be felt as stigmatising for unmarried and childless women.Nelly Martin-Anatias, Lecturer of Academic English at Massey University College, Massey UniversitySharyn Graham Davies, Associate Professor of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1893662022-10-07T12:19:55Z2022-10-07T12:19:55ZWhat is a bodhisattva? A scholar of Buddhism explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488147/original/file-20221004-12-gom54a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2114%2C1406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boddhisatva Avalokiteśvara, considered to be a compassionate protector, is believed to regularly visit Earth.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bust-of-god-avalokiteshvara-singapore-royalty-free-image/1200705559?phrase=Avalokiteshvara&adppopup=true">taikrixel/ via iStock Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Bodhisattva” is a key idea in Buddhism. The word is constructed from the Sanskrit root bodhi, meaning “awakening” or “enlightenment,” and sattva, meaning “being.” The core meaning of the word is “a being who is on the way to becoming enlightened.” </p>
<p>As I explain in my book “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/691081/buddhish-by-c-pierce-salguero/">Buddhish: A Guide to the 20 Most Important Buddhist Ideas for the Curious and Skeptical</a>,” the word bodhisattva is understood in divergent ways by different groups of Buddhists. </p>
<h2>Who is a bodhisattva?</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Theravada-Buddhism-A-Social-History-from-Ancient-Benares-to-Modern-Colombo/Gombrich/p/book/9780415365093">Theravāda Buddhism</a>, which is most prevalent in Southeast Asia, the term is exclusively used to refer to Siddhartha Gautama, as the Buddha was known before he became enlightened. In this school of thought, the word bodhisattva can also refer to Gautama in one of his previous rebirths as he worked toward enlightenment through numerous lifetimes as animals, people or other types of beings.</p>
<p>According to legend, Gautama was born as the crown prince of a kingdom in far northeastern India, but he gave up his throne and all of his riches in order to pursue enlightenment. Eventually, he fulfilled his destiny and transitioned from a being who is on the way to becoming awakened to a fully enlightened person – in other words, a Buddha. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Mahayana-Buddhism-The-Doctrinal-Foundations/Williams/p/book/9780415356534">Mahāyāna Buddhism</a>, practiced widely in East and Central Asia, the term bodhisattva can be used in a similar way. However, this form of Buddhism says that there are many more than just one Buddha; indeed, the ultimate goal of all true believers of Mahāyāna is to become a Buddha themselves. Most serious followers of this path take the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Bodhisattva-Vow-Geshe-Sonam-Rinchen/dp/1559391502/">bodhisattva vow</a> to become recognized as bodhisattvas. </p>
<p>Additionally, in Mahāyāna belief, there are certain highly evolved bodhisattvas who have been practicing Buddhism for so many lifetimes that they have become <a href="https://www.wlupress.wlu.ca/Books/B/Bodhisattva-Doctrine-in-Buddhism2">superhuman divine beings</a>. These so-called “celestial bodhisattvas” are said to have accrued immense merits and powers. However, they have intentionally chosen to delay becoming Buddhas in order to dedicate themselves to compassionately helping others. </p>
<h2>Why do bodhisattvas matter?</h2>
<p>Some of the most famous advanced bodhisattvas, such as Avalokiteśvara, Kṣitigarbha, Mañjuśrī, Samantabhadra and Vajrapāṇi, are regularly prayed to and given offerings. Texts and mantras associated with most of them are regularly chanted in temples around the world. Devotees hope that the bodhisattvas, in their infinite compassion, will hear these calls and respond by sending <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-buddhists-handle-coronavirus-the-answer-is-not-just-meditation-137966">blessings of health</a>, good fortune and happiness.</p>
<p>Buddhists believe that celestial bodhisattvas reside in heavenly realms called <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-pure-land-buddhism-a-look-at-how-east-asian-buddhists-chant-and-strive-for-buddhahood-149140">Pure Lands</a> located in faraway dimensions of the cosmos. The bodhisattva Maitreya, for example, is said to currently live in the Tuṣita Heaven, where he is awaiting rebirth as the next Buddha of our world. </p>
<p>Because they can manifest in different bodies simultaneously, bodhisattvas can also appear on Earth disguised as humans, animals, or other types of beings. For example, Tibetan Buddhists believe that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-choosing-the-next-dalai-lama-will-be-a-religious-as-well-as-a-political-issue-162796">Dalai Lama</a> is a manifestation of the bodhisattva Avalokiteśvara, called Chenrezig in Tibetan, who regularly comes to earth to spread his message of compassion among humanity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierce Salguero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Buddhists believe that bodhisattvas reside in heavenly realms but can also appear on Earth disguised as humans, animals or other types of beings.Pierce Salguero, Associate Professor of Asian History & Religious Studies, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1879902022-08-01T20:04:16Z2022-08-01T20:04:16ZCan Australia recapture the spirit of middle power diplomacy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476837/original/file-20220801-18-dv74e0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The right track? Foreign Minister Penny Wong meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang during the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali last month.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johannes P. Christo/Pool/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia faces many global and regional challenges – the human and economic toll of the pandemic, the rippling effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, troubled relations with Pacific Island countries. But the most consequential of all is US–China rivalry. With the not-so-peaceful rise of China and the waning of American supremacy, Australia has been walking a tightrope, and for the past couple of years the balancing act has not been entirely successful.</p>
<p>The change of government is a good time to discuss Australia’s top foreign policy priorities and how to deal with them. Revisiting the “middle power” concept – what it means and how it works – can help clarify how Australia can better handle these challenging times.</p>
<h2>Australia as a middle power</h2>
<p>Although not everyone agrees about what defines a middle power, Australia is consistently considered to be among them, as measured by material capabilities, international behaviour and/or self-identity. Even if we define middle powers according to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10357718.2013.840264">outcomes</a> rather than the intent of their actions, Australia has been a typical, if not quintessential, middle power. The <a href="https://power.lowyinstitute.org/">Lowy Institute Asian Power Index</a> confirms that much.</p>
<p>The most frequently named middle powers have shown a strong commitment to seeking multilateral and cooperative solutions to global and regional issues (with emerging middle powers more focused on their regions). </p>
<p>This is a rational choice, not least because these nations have neither the sheer material power nor the “<a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/minisite/static/4ca0813c-585e-4fe1-86eb-de665e65001a/fpwhitepaper/foreign-policy-white-paper/chapter-eight-partnerships-and-soft-power/soft-power.html#:%7E:text=Having%20the%20ability%20to%20influence,underpinned%20by%20some%20enduring%20strengths.">soft power</a>” afforded to great powers.</p>
<p>Multilateral diplomacy works well for middle powers. Separately, they are vulnerable to great power rivalry; together, they can have a more significant impact on the international system.</p>
<p>Strategic ambiguity (as opposed to blind loyalty to certain powers or groupings) also works well for middle powers. Taking sides can increase the risk for smaller states in a conflict between great powers. China has certainly noticed what it calls a “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china-sees-cold-war-mentality-us-british-australia-pact-2021-09-15/">cold war mentality</a>” in relation to Australia’s increasingly close ties to the US.</p>
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
<p>No matter what is defined as “the national interest” by the government of the day, Australia has two enduring interests: a security interest aligned with the west and an economic interest increasingly aligned with the east. </p>
<p>The defence alliance with the US is vital to Australia’s national security. But China continues to be Australia’s largest trade partner, with Asia accounting for <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade-and-investment/trade-and-investment-glance-2021">65% of Australian’s two-way trade</a> in 2021.</p>
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<span class="caption">Strategic ambiguity? A man reads a newspaper in Beijing reporting on US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Asia visit, which may or may not include a stop-off in Taipei.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andy Wong/AP</span></span>
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<p>This is why, despite all its political and security concerns, Australia has traditionally sought to maintain a <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-new-defence-white-paper-will-say-about-china">balance</a> between its strong economic relationship with China and its defence alliance with the US. In return, China expressed its <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/content/Home/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/CIB9697/97cib23">appreciation</a> at times when Australia acted independently of the United States. The policy of strategic ambiguity appears to have worked in <a href="https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/australia-strategic-ambiguity/">Australia’s favour</a> when it came to Taiwan and other issues extremely sensitive to China.</p>
<p>But Australia–China ties have hit a rough patch recently. The starting point was China’s provocative activities in the South China Sea and the global impact of its Belt and Road Initiative. That friction was compounded by Australia’s eager embrace of the United States’ vision for the Indo-Pacific.</p>
<p>China has doubled down on its economic and diplomatic <a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/chinese-communist-partys-coercive-diplomacy">coercion</a> since at least 2017. More recently, in response to the Morrison government’s call for an independent investigation into the origin of COVID-19, it has imposed <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/china-sends-message-australian-crackdown">sanctions</a> on many Australian exports.</p>
<p>In response, Australia further cemented its alliance with the US. It helped revive the Quad grouping with India, Japan and the US in 2017, and joined AUKUS, the Australia–UK–US enhanced strategic partnership, in 2021.</p>
<h2>The problems multiply</h2>
<p>While the economic impact of China’s sanctions has been <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/09/australia-china-decoupling-trade-sanctions-coronavirus-geopolitics/">mild</a> in the short term, there is no telling the future. The disruption of global supply chains due to COVID-19 and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights China’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/some-factories-might-leave-china-but-big-picture-it-doesnt-matter.html">dominant role</a> in business-to-business trade.</p>
<p>Not only has the prolonged war in Ukraine caused a worldwide cost-of-living crisis, but it also showcases the vulnerability of smaller states and the further decline of the US-led world order. Putting all eggs in one basket may not be a wise choice for Australia.</p>
<p>Besides the China problem, Australian relations with Pacific Island countries have seen better days. Among the reasons for the deterioration are Australia’s reluctance to join forces to mitigate climate change, and its transactional approach to bilateral relations with neighbours.</p>
<p>Australia’s growing defence reliance on the US also polarises key partners in Southeast Asia. Regional powers like Vietnam and Indonesia are vying for multilateralism and cautious about antagonising China. Probably not helpful was the previous government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-warns-against-negative-globalism-124651">scepticism</a> about international organisations together with a longer-term decline in resources for engagement, evidenced by the fact that funding for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/silver-lining-dfat-s-budgetary-woes">declined</a> over the past three decades.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>To deal with these challenges, Australia needs a (re-)balancing act based on bilateral and multilateral diplomacy involving a wider pool of key stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific.</p>
<p>Less provocative rhetoric and efforts to identify mutual interests can help de-escalate the tension with China. Diplomacy should be brought back into the forefront, as the new government has sought to do.</p>
<p>Of course, a complete reset of China–Australia ties is unlikely given deep-seated human rights and national security <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/china-australia-relations-foreign-policy-labor-win/101091996">concerns</a>. But the American alliance doesn’t have to come at the cost of derailing trade relations with China. To reduce trade dependence on China, meanwhile, Australia should strengthen relations with India, ASEAN and other trading partners.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-boats-beef-and-bali-albaneses-unfinished-business-with-indonesia-184547">Beyond boats, beef and Bali: Albanese's unfinished business with Indonesia</a>
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<p>To that end, Australia must show Asia and the Pacific that it is a responsible and reliable partner, a “good international citizen”. Expanding development aid, education programs, cultural exchanges and other public diplomacy initiatives can help a great deal. “Climate change” is a common concern among these partners, and should be at the centre of the discussion.</p>
<p>Diplomacy is a long game. It is harder to mend relationships than to break them. It may take a while for Australia to see how diplomacy can help, but middle power diplomacy definitely serves Australia’s national interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vu Lam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Careful diplomacy rather than uncritical alliances will help steer a course through Australia’s foreign policy challenges.Vu Lam, Visiting Fellow in International Relations, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876882022-07-26T06:11:47Z2022-07-26T06:11:47ZWill the Myanmar executions force Australia to act decisively at last?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475983/original/file-20220726-22016-bg641z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">“We Will Never Be Frightened”: Young demonstrators holding a banner during a protest in Yangon yesterday.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/25/myanmar-junta-who-four-people-executed">execution</a> of four political prisoners in Myanmar is further confirmation of what was already well known. The regime of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing will stop at nothing to maintain its grip on the country.</p>
<p>Since its coup in February last year, the military has used terror to assert control: extrajudicial killings, torture and the arbitrary arrest and detention of protesters. It has murdered civilians, tortured children and condemned the country’s elected leaders to long terms of imprisonment following farcical show trials. More than 1,600 people, including at least 75 children, have been killed.</p>
<p>The executions make a political solution to the crisis, already dim, virtually impossible. Opponents of the military, the People’s Defence Force, have renewed their commitment to using whatever means they have – including attacks, assassinations, and bombings – to overturn military rule. Peaceful protest, once championed by Aung San Suu Kyi, is no longer the modus operandi of many dissidents.</p>
<p>Of the country’s many armed ethnic groups, some have reportedly begun negotiating peace talks with the military. However, many others have aligned themselves with the Peoples Defence Force, and are providing weapons, protection and training to those fighting against military rule.</p>
<p>The country trembles on the brink of civil war. Its existing problems – poverty, sickness, a lack of fuel, food and medicine – have brought the country to crisis point.</p>
<p>Western powers seemed shocked by the suddenness of Myanmar’s return to brutal military dictatorship after almost a decade of a seemingly promising new quasi-democracy. In truth, although Myanmar adopted some of the trappings of multi-party democracy in the nationwide elections of 2015 and 2020, the military retained its role as the central political player.</p>
<p>After 2011, the military waged a brutal campaign of civil war against the Kachin in the North of the country. In 2016 and 2017, it carried out deadly clearance operations against the Rohingya in Rakhine state. In both cases it used devastating violence against civilians. No one ought to have been surprised when it applied the same methods to protesters following last year’s coup.</p>
<h2>Strong words, little action</h2>
<p>The response of Western governments has been weak. Bewilderingly, and almost alone among Western countries, Australia has still not sanctioned Min Aung Hlaing.</p>
<p>Early images from Myanmar after the coup showed crowds of people holding placards begging for the Security Council to implement the UN’s principle of <a href="https://www.globalr2p.org/what-is-r2p/#:%7E:text=The%20Responsibility%20to%20Protect%20%E2%80%93%20known,cleansing%20and%20crimes%20against%20humanity.">Responsibility to Protect</a> by authorising humanitarian intervention to protect the lives of civilians. But the Security Council is hamstrung by China and Russia’s support for Myanmar’s generals.</p>
<p>The UN General Assembly passed a strong resolution in June 2021 calling for an arms embargo and other measures. But the General Assembly has no power to enforce its resolutions. Unlike in Ukraine, the people of Myanmar have not been provided with weapons to fight for their lives.</p>
<p>Two months earlier, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, attempted to negotiate an end to the crisis. It was not successful. ASEAN’s <a href="https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/Chairmans-Statement-on-ALM-Five-Point-Consensus-24-April-2021-FINAL-a-1.pdf">Five Point Plan</a> called for an immediate end to violence in the country, dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy to immediately visit Myanmar, and humanitarian assistance.</p>
<p>Having agreed to the plan, Min Aung Hlaing almost immediately announced the military would continue using violence until the protests stopped. There is no platform for building trust between the parties.</p>
<p>The executions confirm to those opposing the military that Myanmar’s “Spring Revolution” is a battle they must win. The cost to Myanmar will be very high and will be paid by generations of Burmese people. And countries in the region, including Australia, will also pay a price.</p>
<h2>What Australia must do</h2>
<p>War creates the conditions in which the gravest of human rights abuses flourish. When the level of suffering inside a country becomes intolerable, the result is a flow of refugees and even greater exploitation of those vulnerable to practices like human trafficking. These problems will arrive on Australia’s doorstep. For that reason alone, Australia should do much more to assist the people of Myanmar.</p>
<p>First, it should impose targeted sanctions on the coup leaders, including Min Aung Hlaing. Other countries imposed targeted sanctions in response to atrocities carried out against the Rohingya back in 2017. If Australia’s failure to follow suit was part of a strategy to facilitate the repatriation of Australian economist Sean Turnell, who has been held in Insein Prison since the coup, then an urgent rethink is needed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-world-stop-myanmar-from-becoming-a-failed-state-174868">Can the world stop Myanmar from becoming a failed state?</a>
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<p>Second, the Australian government should consider recognising the National Unity Government, which represents the democratically elected parliament and those who oppose the coup. The execution of a member of the former parliament confirms, if confirmation was necessary, that the military has no claim to legitimate rule.</p>
<p>Finally, Australia should ensure its humanitarian response to a crisis in a country in the region at least matches the generosity of its response to Ukraine, and that funds for aid and relief are channelled through the National Unity Government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Renshaw previously received funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Community of Democracies and Rotary International, for work connected to Myanmar. </span></em></p>This week’s executions have reminded the world about what’s happening under the generals. It’s time for Australian policy to changeCatherine Renshaw, Professor, School of Law, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1864582022-07-06T19:55:37Z2022-07-06T19:55:37ZAustralia’s finally acknowledged climate change is a national security threat. Here are 5 mistakes to avoid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472692/original/file-20220706-17-cr1xjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C16%2C5599%2C3715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca Di Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The climate policies of the former Morrison government were widely panned – largely for a weak commitment to cutting emissions and a slow transition to renewable energy. But amid all the shortcomings, arguably the biggest was the Coalition’s neglect of security threats posed by climate change.</p>
<p>The Albanese government has moved to address this gap. It has launched an urgent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/22/anthony-albanese-to-order-intelligence-chief-to-examine-security-threats-posed-by-climate-crisis">review</a> of climate and security risk led by intelligence chief Andrew Shearer, working closely with Defence. The review team now faces a daunting task.</p>
<p><a href="https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2022-02/Climate%20and%20security%20in%20the%20Indo-Pacific_0.pdf?VersionId=qP0ZzIQQiSLU1ymakusX2a9NrL2R6Jf_">Climate change</a> is a pressing and accelerating threat to global security. It will disrupt trade, displace populations, cause food and energy shortages and drive conflict between nations. </p>
<p>Southeast Asia, on our northern doorstep, is particularly <a href="https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2021-04/Emerging%20crisis%20FINAL.pdf?VersionId=2O0z1B.klAgJBbQzB6YnxVE__AHmzIbE">at risk</a>. It’s a global hotspot of overlapping climate hazards such as intensifying cyclones, sea level rise and extreme heat. </p>
<p>What’s more, the region is heavily populated – 275 million people live in Indonesia alone – and its social safety nets cannot support all those displaced by disasters.</p>
<p>The government review is a crucial first step in preparing Australia for the dangers ahead. But to be successful, it must avoid these five pitfalls.</p>
<h2>1. Narrow definition of national security</h2>
<p>Climate change will no doubt challenge our defence force, threatening military infrastructure and readiness. It will also exacerbate tensions in military hotspots such as the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/the-looming-environmental-catastrophe-in-the-south-china-sea/">South China Sea</a>, where sea level rise and ocean warming will amplify disputes over maritime boundaries and fisheries. </p>
<p>But the most pressing regional security threats will come from climate change disruptions to social systems. In particular, disruptions to food, water and energy will displace large populations, undermine the legitimacy of governments and cause other social upheaval.</p>
<p>The issues go far beyond traditional national security portfolios such as Defence, Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs and intelligence agencies. A wide range of government departments must be involved in addressing these risks.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
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<img alt="man looks at dried dam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472696/original/file-20220706-27-nmvc3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water shortages are a domestic security issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Focusing too much on overseas threats</h2>
<p>The risk assessment should consider the need to both respond to climate harms within Australia while being prepared to meet overseas threats, such as military instability abroad. This will primarily require personnel to deal with both tasks.</p>
<p>During the election campaign, Labor <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-to-consider-civilian-disaster-response-workforce-20220313-p5a460">mooted</a> a new civilian national disaster response force. This force would free Defence to meet intensifying military threats abroad.</p>
<p>A review too heavily focused on overseas threats would miss the need for such measures.</p>
<h2>3. Taking a siloed view</h2>
<p>Most analysis of climate damage tends to focus on individual, rather than system-wide, impacts. </p>
<p>For example, a study might examine how rising temperatures will reduce food production, but not the compounding effects of hazards happening at the same time such as floods, drought and increased pests. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to analyse how hazards can trigger cascades of disruptions across society. But unless the review grapples with this reality, it will fundamentally misjudge the scale of the challenge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="fire on farm near ute" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472697/original/file-20220706-23-k7yyb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food production may be hampered by simultaneous climate impacts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NSW Rural Fire Service</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Underestimating the urgency</h2>
<p>It’s easy to assume the pace of climate impacts we’ve experienced in the recent past is what to expect in future. But in fact, these impacts are now increasing rapidly.</p>
<p>Extreme heat events, for example, have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-021-00202-w">mushroomed</a> 90-fold over the past decade, relative to the previous 30 years. Severe one-in-100-year flood events will soon become <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-06/climate-change-to-intensify-weather-in-australia-ipcc-report-say/100882692">annual events</a> in many parts of the world.</p>
<p>These changes are already visible in Southeast Asia where sea levels are rising at the fastest pace globally. Some 75 million Indonesians are now <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30727-4.pdf">exposed</a> to high flood risk.</p>
<p>So the risk assessment must avoid miscalculating how soon major disruptions to society will be felt. </p>
<h2>5. Oversimplifying</h2>
<p>Labor wants the review completed urgently (although it will be updated <a href="https://keystone-alp.s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/prod/61a9693a3f3c53001f975017-PoweringAustralia.pdf">regularly</a>). With time pressures, some shortcuts will be needed. But the assessment team should avoid oversimplifying the process. </p>
<p>It would be unfortunate, for example, if the review involved a series of common questions presented to government departments, with the answers collated to form the final report. This was essentially the approach of the <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-intelligence-assessments-could-be-underestimating-security-risks-from-climate-change/">Biden administration</a> in the US. The result was a patchy assessment with little whole-of-government integration.</p>
<p>Ideally, the process should begin with consultation across government to identify the key objectives – many of which will fall within the mandates of multiple government department, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>securing our borders</li>
<li>ensuring energy security</li>
<li>tackling transnational organised crime</li>
<li>countering terrorism and violent extremism.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security-it-must-be-a-political-priority-123264">Climate change poses a 'direct threat' to Australia's national security. It must be a political priority</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="four ships patrol Australia's seas" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472698/original/file-20220706-16-ptrsdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Securing our borders is likely to be a key security objective across government.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Defence</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The objectives would be the reference points for the review, and relevant government agencies would work together to identify the risks and responses.</p>
<p>For example, China’s regional trajectory cannot be understood separately from the risks posed by climate change. Australia must develop a deep and nuanced understanding of how climate change may affect Australian efforts to compete (or cooperate) with China in the region. The review should lay the groundwork for this.</p>
<h2>Getting it right</h2>
<p>Climate threats exist all at once in every direction: domestically, regionally, and internationally. This is the core challenge the review must tackle.</p>
<p>It will take exceptionally good judgement and execution to ensure that the risk assessment avoids becoming a platitude or, at the other extreme, mired in complexity. </p>
<p>Our national security, and the safety and well-being of all Australians, depends on getting it right.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-capital-jakarta-is-sinking-heres-how-to-stop-this-170269">Indonesia's capital Jakarta is sinking. Here's how to stop this</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186458/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Glasser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A government review, now in train, is crucial in preparing Australia for the climate dangers ahead. But we must get it right.Robert Glasser, Honorary Professor, Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.