# Articles on Statistics

## Just how unpredictable is the Premier League? Scientists have done the maths

Turns out the English Premier League is a lot more unpredictable than Spain's La Liga, which could be why it attracts so much funding.

## Forget the Census undercount, what matters is bias

If the response rate to the 2016 Census is lower than expected, it could compromise our ability to draw meaningful information from the data.

## Drowning by averages: did the ABS miscalculate the Census load?

Even without a DDoS attack, the 2016 Census may have failed due to the ABS making a rudimentary statistical error.

## Explainer: what is the census, and why does it matter?

Census data have a real impact on the lives of Australians, from determining political representation through the distribution of electorates, to the allocation of government funding.

## Studying Africa by numbers can be misleading. What can be done about it?

The numerical basis used to study African economies suffers from major knowledge gaps. This needs to improve if numbers are to inform policies that will encourage growth and push back poverty.

## Small firms can provide jobs, but big firms are the key to economic growth in Africa

Evidence shows that in economies like that of Ghana, small firms do fine, but it's the large firms that seem to suffer constraints on their growth in numbers.

## Election explainer: why are there 150 lower house MPs and 76 senators?

The number of members of the House of Representatives is variable. It is a result of a formula given in the Constitution.

## What’s on the to-do list for Africa’s statistical ecologists

Some of the most in-demand ecologists in Africa are specialists in statistics. But this is currently a scarce skill combination in Africa.

## Benefits of the census retaining names and addresses should outweigh privacy fears

By linking censuses through time or by combining other information with the census, many more important policy questions can be answered than if we used one dataset alone.

## Why so many baseball experts whiffed with last year’s predictions

As the talking heads line up to predict this season's division winners, many are hoping fans will forget their abysmal forecasts for the 2015 season.

## A tip to win your office footy tipping? Don’t listen to the experts

If you're looking to win your colleagues' and friends’ respect in a footy tipping competition you can do a whole lot worse than simply tuning out of the countless hours of TV and radio analysis.

## How predictable are Australia’s big sporting leagues?

Sport is by its very nature unpredictable, and that's why we love it.

## Size doesn’t matter in Big Data, it’s what you ask of it that counts

Big Data produces mountains of information, but it's useless for science unless we're asking the right questions.

## Gun control in America by the right (and wrong) numbers

All sides in the debate on gun control in the United States are quick to point to numbers they say back their arguments. But are they playing fair with those figures?

## We need a fairer system for deciding rain-affected games in Twenty20 cricket

When a cricket match is cut short there's a way to work out how many runs are needed in any reduced over game. That's okay for the long form game but it doesn't work for the shorter matches.

## The NRL kicks off, but do you have to lose a final before you win a final?

The North Queensland Cowboys will be hoping to win back-to-back grand finals in this year's NRL. But what about that old saying on winning and losing?

## How to unleash the wisdom of crowds

If you want the best tool for making educated guesses, then you'd better get the basics right.

## Can you spot a match fix by looking at the numbers?

You might think statisticians could work out if a player has been cheating – it's not that simple.

## Who are the homeless and how do we count them?

Winter is a really tough time for the homeless, but it is hard to help people who are invisible to society.

## Should we blame Chelsea’s forwards for Mourinho’s departure?

A look at the statistics shows that having a top-performing centre forward is key to winning games – and ultimately trophies.