tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/sunshine-coast-5395/articlesSunshine Coast – The Conversation2022-10-07T04:26:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1919412022-10-07T04:26:32Z2022-10-07T04:26:32ZThe wild weather of La Niña could wipe out vast stretches of Australia’s beaches and sand dunes<p>Australians along the east cost are bracing for yet another round of heavy rainfall this weekend, after a band of stormy weather soaked <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-our-wettest-days-stormclouds-can-dump-30-trillion-litres-of-water-across-australia-191949">most of the continent</a> this week. </p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology has <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUsNQ_-fNbM&ab_channel=BureauofMeteorology">alerted</a> southern inland Queensland, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and northern Tasmania to ongoing flood risks, as the rain falls on already flooded or saturated catchments. </p>
<p>This widespread wet weather heralds <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">Australia’s rare third</a> back-to-back La Niña, which goes hand-in-hand with heavy rain. There is, however, another pressing issue arising from La Niña events: coastal erosion.</p>
<p>The wild weather associated with La Niña will drive more erosion along Australia’s east coast – enough to wipe out entire stretches of beaches and dunes, if all factors align. So, it’s important we heed lessons from past storms and plan ahead, as climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">will only exacerbate</a> future coastal disasters.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QUsNQ_-fNbM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ongoing flood risk for eastern Australia |
Bureau of Meteorology.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How La Niña batters coastlines</h2>
<p>La Niña is associated with warmer waters in the western Pacific Ocean, which increase storminess off Australia’s east coast. Chances of a higher number of tropical cyclones increase, as do the chances of cyclones travelling further south and further inland, and of more frequent passages of east coast lows.</p>
<p>Australians had a taste of this in 1967, when the Gold Coast was hit by the largest storm cluster on record, made up of four cyclones and three east coast lows within six months. 1967 wasn’t even an official La Niña year, with the index just below the La Niña threshold.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">La Niña, 3 years in a row: a climate scientist on what flood-weary Australians can expect this summer</a>
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<p>Such frequency didn’t allow beaches to recover between storms, and the overall erosion was unprecedented. It <a href="https://impact.griffith.edu.au/seawall-engineering/">forced many</a> local residents to use anything on hand, even cars, to protect their properties and other infrastructure.</p>
<p>Official La Niña events occurred soon after. This included a double-dip La Niña between 1970 and 1972, followed by a triple-dip La Niña between 1973 and 1976. </p>
<p>These events fuelled two cyclones in 1972, two in 1974 and one in 1976, wreaking havoc along the entire east coast of Australia. Indeed, 1967 and 1974 are considered <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/northern-beaches/one-of-the-storms-that-hit-us-in-1974-was-among-the-three-worst-since-white-settlement/news-story/0cd5ca874d6b37206762d8485e4eb442">record years</a> for storm-induced coastal erosion.</p>
<p>Studies show the extreme erosion of 1974 was caused by a combination of large waves coinciding with <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=scipapers">above-average high tides</a>. It took over ten years for the sand to come back to the beach and for <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300263">dunes to recover</a>. However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00437-2">recent studies</a> also show single extreme storms can bring back considerable amounts of sand from deeper waters.</p>
<p>La Niña also modifies the direction of waves along the east coast, resulting in waves approaching from a more easterly direction (<a href="https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/forecaster-blog-la-nina-conditions-mean-surf/97904">anticlockwise</a>). </p>
<p>This subtle change has huge implications when it comes to erosion of otherwise more sheltered <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/how-la-nina-may-damage-queensland-tourist-hot-spots-041805874.html">north-facing beaches</a>. We saw this during the recent, and relatively weaker, double La Niña of 2016-18. </p>
<p>In 2016, an east coast low of only moderate intensity produced extreme erosion, similar to that of 1974. Scenes of destruction along NSW – including a collapsed backyard pool on <a href="https://www.wrl.unsw.edu.au/news/wrl-coastal-engineers-document-the-worst-erosion-at-collaroy-since-1974">Collaroy Beach</a> – are now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-06/nsw-weather-large-waves-hit-collaroy-coast/7479846#:%7E:text=NSW%20weather%3A%20Collaroy%20swimming%20pool%20collapses%20as%20giant%20waves%20hit%20beachfront%20houses,-Posted%20Sun%205&text=Waves%20up%20to%208%20metres,as%20wild%20weather%20battered%20NSW.">iconic</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-05792-1">This is largely</a> because wave direction deviated from the average by 45 degrees anticlockwise, during winter solstice spring tides when water levels are higher. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">2022's supercharged summer of climate extremes: How global warming and La Niña fueled disasters on top of disasters</a>
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<h2>All ducks aligned?</h2>
<p>The current triple-dip La Niña started in 2020. Based on Australia’s limited record since 1900, we know the final events in such sequences tend to be the weakest. </p>
<p>However, when it comes to coastal hazards, history tells us smaller but more frequent storms can cause as much or more erosion than one large event. This is mostly about the combination of storm direction, sequencing and high water levels.</p>
<p>For example, Bribie Island in Queensland was hit by relatively large easterly waves from ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth earlier this year, coinciding with above-average high tides. This caused the island to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/bribie-island-changes-could-create-new-caloundra-bar/100777038#:%7E:text=Ex%2DTropical%20Cyclone%20Seth%20has,splitting%20the%20island%20in%20two.">split in two</a> and form a 300-metre wide passage of seawater. </p>
<p>Further, the prolonged period of easterly waves since 2020 has already taken a toll on beaches and dunes in Australia. </p>
<p>Traditionally, spring is the season when sand is transported onshore under fair-weather waves, building back wide beaches and tall dunes nearest to the sea. However, beaches haven’t had time to fully recover from the previous two years, which makes them more vulnerable to future erosion.</p>
<p>Repeated <a href="https://www.usc.edu.au/about/structure/schools/school-of-science-technology-and-engineering/coast4d">elevation measurements</a> by our team and citizen scientists along beaches in the Sunshine Coast and Noosa show shorelines have eroded more than 10m landwards since the beginning of this year. As the photo below shows, 2-3m high erosion scarps (which look like small cliffs) have formed along dunes due to frequent heavy rainfalls and waves.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488701/original/file-20221007-18-mmjydr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Dune scarps at a beach in Noosa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Javier Leon</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>On the other hand, we can also see that the wet weather has led to greater growth of vegetation on dunes, such as native spinifex and dune bean.</p>
<p>Experiments in laboratory settings show dune vegetation can dissipate up to 40-50% of the water level reached as a result of waves, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272771418307583">reduce erosion</a>. But whether this increase in dune vegetation mitigates further erosion remains to be seen.</p>
<h2>A challenging future</h2>
<p>The chances of witnessing coastal hazards similar to those in 1967 or 1974 in the coming season are real and, in the unfortunate case they materialise, we should be ready to act. Councils and communities need to prepare ahead and work together towards recovery if disaster strikes using, for example, sand nourishment and sandbags.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, it remains essential to further our understanding about coastal dynamics – especially in a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-03/gold-coast-no-stranger-to-beach-erosion/101381812#:%7E:text=a%20huge%20challenge-,Millions%20spent%20to%20protect%20Gold%20Coast%20beaches%2C%20but,change%20poses%20a%20huge%20challenge&text=In%201967%2C%20Gold%20Coast%20beaches,and%20ruined%20the%20tourist%20season.">changing climate</a> – so we can better manage densely populated coastal regions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-fuelled-wave-patterns-pose-an-erosion-risk-for-developing-countries-184064">Climate-fuelled wave patterns pose an erosion risk for developing countries</a>
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<p>After all, much of what we know about the dynamics of Australia’s east coast has been supported by coastal monitoring programs, which were implemented <a href="https://www.publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/coastal-observation-program-engineering">along Queensland</a> and NSW after the 1967 and 1974 storms. </p>
<p>Scientists predict that La Niña conditions along the east coast of Australia – such as warmer waters, higher sea levels, stronger waves and more waves coming from the east – will become <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-fuelled-wave-patterns-pose-an-erosion-risk-for-developing-countries-184064">the norm under climate change</a>. </p>
<p>It’s crucial we start having a serious conversation about coastal adaptation strategies, including implementing a <a href="https://www.usc.edu.au/about/unisc-news/news-archive/2022/january/coastal-erosion-may-force-retreat-from-the-sea#:%7E:text=Giving%20up%20land%20to%20the,of%20the%20Sunshine%20Coast%20researcher.">managed retreat</a>. The longer we take, the higher the costs will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Javier Leon receives funding from Noosa Council and The Queensland Earth Observation (EO) Hub, a partnership between the Queensland Government and SmartSat Cooperative Research Centre (CRC)</span></em></p>We must heed lessons from past storms and plan ahead, as climate change will only exacerbate future coastal disasters.Javier Leon, Senior lecturer, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742392017-03-17T03:01:33Z2017-03-17T03:01:33ZContested spaces: conflict behind the sand dunes takes a new turn<p><em>This is the eleventh article in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/contested-spaces-36316">Contested Spaces</a> series. These pieces look at the conflicting uses, expectations and norms that people bring to public spaces, the clashes that result and how we can resolve these.</em></p>
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<p>When we think of coasts, we are likely to think about the great sandy beaches that have been the destination for many day trips and long weekends. At times these spaces have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/contested-spaces-we-shall-fight-on-the-beaches-72265">sources of contestation</a>, especially in areas of public access and codes of conduct. However, behind the sand dunes are other landscapes with deep histories of social conflict. </p>
<p>Moments from coastal pasts have had a major impact on how we see different coasts today. They feed into distinct ideals and ethics on place, especially in terms of how it is developed. </p>
<h2>Noosa Heads versus Surfers Paradise</h2>
<p>Noosa Heads is a prime example of this. Noosa’s history during colonisation includes a number of difficult stories to tell. Examples include the contentious tale of the <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjd_buo0tTSAhVEwLwKHXw_APEQFggvMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Farts%2Freview%2Ftale-of-eliza-fraser-shipwrecked-in-1836-takes-aboriginal-perspective%2Fnews-story%2F7d2b7438cb119c34aacc15c43c7290f7&usg=AFQjCNHNV5jjhaN1tHIcdjrP9lc0hCYIgg">rescue of Eliza Fraser</a>, or the fate of the traditional owners, the <a href="http://www.gubbigubbi.com/">Gubbi Gubbi</a> people, at the hands of the colonial settlers and the native police. </p>
<p>Yet it was in the 1960s when modern conflict over land use really took shape in Noosa. A proposal by the developer T.M. Burke to build a resort at Alexandria Bay created a stir among locals. The local shire was set to build an access road around the headland, destroying well-trodden walking tracks. </p>
<p>A group led by local Arthur Harrold fought this proposal and formed the still-operating <a href="http://www.noosaparks.org.au/">Noosa Parks Association</a>. Thus began a long-standing fight against over-development, mining and other impediments to what residents saw as the natural beauty of the coast. This included the <a href="http://www.kinaba.org/cooloola-conflict">Cooloola Conflict</a> and the now-famed resistance to high-rise development. </p>
<p>While there are elements of conservationism here to consider, these conflicts arose in a bid to keep Noosa low-key, with a slower mentality and authentic natural surrounds. Today, these ethics of authenticity are firmly <a href="https://www.noosa.qld.gov.au/documents/40217326/40227843/Noosa%20Design%20Principles.pdf">embedded in planning regulation</a>, illustrating the strength of local resistance past. </p>
<p>Noosa residents’ key fear in the 1960s and ’70s was losing their sense of place to the different ideals embodied in another coastal mecca, Surfers Paradise. Like Noosa, Surfers has a long history of conflict. Yet this place developed much differently due to several key factors. </p>
<p>Arguably, the significant turning point was in 1925 when <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/cavill-james-freeman-jim-9713">Jim Cavill</a> bought the then Elston Hotel and renamed it the “Surfers Paradise” hotel. Cavill and his wife proceeded to turn the coastal setting into something more than a place to bathe or surf. </p>
<p>Alongside the hotel, they built a zoo full of exotic animals that gave the place a peculiar flavor. Having been influenced by the American example of how to develop coasts, Cavill exhibited a desire to construct Surfers Paradise as an exotic international resort. However, due to the war in the Pacific, Surfers Paradise was restricted by building codes, frustrating locals who were eager to begin making the space bigger.</p>
<p>Shortly after the war, the codes eased and developers flocked to the “Golden Coast”. In the course of development, local leaders such as the progress association often came into conflict with governance. </p>
<p>In the example of parking meters, this led to the controversial <a href="http://www.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/thegoldcoast/surfers-paradise-history-2764.html">meter maid scheme</a>, which further established Surfers Paradise’s theme as an overtly transgressive and sexualised place. </p>
<h2>Conflicts of a climate-changed future</h2>
<p>In both spaces, conflicts have continued into contemporary times. </p>
<p>Recently, for instance, the fight against the proposed <a href="http://www.saveourspit.com/">Southport Spit</a> development has again drawn locals into conflict with authorities. Such fights against development continue up and down our coastlines. These are mostly driven by the desire to maintain a specific lifestyle and aesthetic appeal. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160425/original/image-20170313-19256-1a945hj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An East Coast Low storm event along the Victorian coastline offers just a hint of the risks of sealevel rise in a future of climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>However, early critics of coastal development saw other concerns about coastal development. For instance, in 1879 a journalist for The Gympie Times, while contemplating the construction of Noosa and Tewantin, wondered about the location of the village and whether one day seawater might be running between you and your <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/170582221?searchTerm=tewantin&searchLimits=l-title=839%7C%7C%7Cl-decade=187">neighbour</a>.</p>
<p>While we have different motivations for maintaining or developing our coastal places, we seem to neglect discussions about the risks of living so close to the ocean. </p>
<p>As we approach a climate-changed future, issues of <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurt-by-sea-how-storm-surges-and-sea-level-rise-make-coastal-life-risky-68348">sea-level rise and coastal flooding</a> are going to challenge our <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-law-shift-from-property-rights-to-climate-adaptation-is-a-landmark-reform-59083">thinking about coasts</a>. </p>
<p>History has shown that several of our coastal meccas are already <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-role-of-climate-change-in-eastern-australias-wild-storms-60552">susceptible to significant damage</a> from storms and cyclones. We scramble to rebuild following these events, but few debates are had about retreating away from the sea. </p>
<p>As we continue into that risky climate-changed landscape, however, we might see <a href="https://theconversation.com/risky-business-how-companies-are-getting-smart-about-climate-change-65221">new players like insurance companies</a> become increasingly important. </p>
<p>Already in the tropics, insurance premiums have <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/maps-show-areas-that-will-be-most-affected-by-rising-sea-levels/news-story/57d33f3fdf52a6baf9491ffcd4f1a570">caused a stir</a> politically and in the media. In the future, though, we may need to consider to whether we have to redefine our relationship with coasts as they become more risky places to live. </p>
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<p><em>You can find other pieces published in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/contested-spaces-36316">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Osbaldiston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Conflicts over coastal areas have largely been between development and preserving what makes these attractive places to live. Rising sea levels are now complicating our relationship with the coast.Nick Osbaldiston, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/618512016-07-21T01:11:56Z2016-07-21T01:11:56ZA tale of five cities: applying foresight to shape their futures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130828/original/image-20160718-2147-nb3akg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How people conceive of their city's future is important in shaping how the city's future unfolds.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://500px.com/photo/142911911/brisbane-at-night-panaramic-goodwill-bridge-by-zachary-powson">Zachary Powson/500px.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mayors, CEOs, citizens and policy analysts are working to create uplifting images of their future cities. Their intended result is clear unifying visions for the city futures they desire.</p>
<p>So how can foresight make a difference in cities? </p>
<h2>Visioning</h2>
<p>The first way foresight improves cities is through <a href="http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/effective-engagement/toolkit/tool-visioning">visioning</a> projects. The City of Greater Geelong is aiming to look ahead 20 to 30 years through its first visioning and strategy project, Geelong 2040. Interviewed about this, Geelong City CEO Kelvin Spiller said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Geelong 2040 will be a city-changing experience, for the long-term betterment of its residents and stakeholders. City visioning will be supported by community engagement. In the same manner that corporate engagement helps the carriage of new innovations upwards, visioning can do this for the planning of urban areas. </p>
<p>Perhaps longer-term visioning should be legislated to encourage managers to help cascade preferences upward and not only into the city vision.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Scenarios</h2>
<p>The second way foresight shapes cities is by applying futures methods like scenarios. Scenarios use group problem-solving and collective cognition to shape insights into alternatives.</p>
<p>What are our 2040 city futures scenarios? Considering an emerging <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au">regional plan</a> for Southeast Queensland, professor <a href="http://www.metafuture.org/about-us/">Sohail Inayatullah</a>, the first UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies, created the following alternatives:</p>
<p><strong>Scenario one:</strong> visions are achieved and our cities are still liveable. By 2040, the population has dramatically increased, but good governance, community consultation and foresight have mitigated negative possibilities (crime, congestion, pollution) and enhanced positive possibilities (job growth, green belt protection, water and energy management). </p>
<p>People want to move into these visionary cities, even with higher housing prices. A fair go is still possible.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130650/original/image-20160715-2153-134evzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scenario two: hot and paved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/danspink/15698491719/in/photolist-pVdSEk">dnlspnk/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Scenario two:</strong> cities arrive at the fate of being “hot and paved”. Market pressures kept driving up housing prices. Developers paid lip service to green and social concerns and a two-class society has emerged. Traffic problems did not decrease; rather, efforts to widen highways led to more congestion. Funding went to major highway connections while public transport and alternative working-from-home practices were overlooked. </p>
<p>Global warming has only made life worse – temperatures continue to rise, water shortages increase. Health indicators worsen. </p>
<p>Three tiers of government look to each other for solutions. Federal governments just seek to stay in power. Capacity for sustainable futures shrinks. </p>
<p><strong>Scenario three:</strong> worse yet, 2040 could be wired and miserable. In this scenario, the previous 20 years have been a series of confrontations between local, state and federal governments, between developers and environmentalists, between individual freedom and security, young and old, rural and coastal areas, and new migrants (many environmental refugees) and old migrants. </p>
<p>It is a world of endless sprawl, congested highways and gang warfare. Technology and power are used to keep collective peace.</p>
<p><strong>Scenario four:</strong> the concern is for the long-term future. Councils all over Australia continue to develop their own visions. As a result, there is a community capacity to innovate. </p>
<p>The percentage of people known as “cultural creatives” has grown dramatically. The values of sustainability, spirituality, innovation and global governance have become the official values.</p>
<p>The main changes are toward home-based work, public transport and active transport. Futures thinking is helping cities get ahead of challenges such as climate change, population growth and democratic policy selection. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L5MJ_APlLc4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An introduction to Sohail Inayatullah’s work on futures thinking.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Inayatullah’s new book, <a href="http://www.metafuture.org/product/what-works-2">What Works</a>, discusses other studies about city futures.</p>
<h2>Sustainable actions</h2>
<p>A third way foresight shapes futures is through sustainable actions. The following four southeast Queensland cities have undertaken city visioning in areas of public transport, energy and environment, and liveability.</p>
<p>Brisbane is planning <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro-subway-system">subway metro</a> and cross-river rail projects. These will benefit commuters in the middle and outer suburbs, who are increasingly experiencing long periods of gridlock.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130651/original/image-20160715-2150-7c1ekh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the Sunshine Coast, the council is building a solar plant to offset all its energy use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://d1j8a4bqwzee3.cloudfront.net/~/media/Corporate/Images/AuthorsPageImages/artists-impression-solar-farm-carousel.jpg?la=en">Artist's impression, Sunshine Coast Regional Council</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the Sunshine Coast, a 15-megawatt <a href="http://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Council/Planning-and-Projects/Major-Regional-Projects/Sunshine-Coast-Solar-Farm">solar-powered plant</a> is a first for Australian local government. It will offset the council’s entire electricity consumption by 2017. </p>
<p>On the Gold Coast, 7.3km of <a href="http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Projects/Name/G/Gold-Coast-Light-Rail-Stage-2.aspx">light rail</a> extensions will be delivered before the 2018 Commonwealth Games. This will ease congestion, improve accessibility and promote economic growth.</p>
<p>In Logan, a <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/brisbane-south-bank-entertainment-precinct-inspires-plans-for-similar-project-in-logan/news-story/b84b85d938a861baced5c2f22686f4c4">Southbank development</a> will create recreational space on river banks alongside floating restaurants to stimulate investment.</p>
<p>When I interviewed former Brisbane City CEO Jude Munro about city foresight, she observed: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The benefits from closely linking land use and transport planning are a clear priority. However, more is required. Better legislation is called for to help cities to plan with foresight, but also city councils should be trialling a range of other measures being employed successfully in Australia. </p>
<p>For example, having a community coalition of local leaders like the one the City of Logan is building can have positive insights for local governance teams to consider. Also, a dedicated team like the <a href="http://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/3245">urban renewal team in Brisbane</a> in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s could help re-establish principles of local area planning in cities of southeast Queensland.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In southeast Queensland, a <a href="http://www.shapingseq.com.au/">new regional plan</a> will unite its cities’ plans under a high-level strategic vision for the next 50 years.</p>
<p>Inayatullah, Spiller, Munro and I agree that, to ensure long-term actions work sustainably, cities should engage stakeholders and communities in visioning, involve futurists who understand how to apply and deepen scenarios and foresight methods, and create strategies within a futures framework. The last step relies upon:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>developing stronger sectoral, suburban and regionally aligned long-term plans;</p></li>
<li><p>aligning city short-term corporate plans to long-term visions;</p></li>
<li><p>working with state and federal government to align city visions with global East-West strategies, including geopolitical, economic and cultural elements; and</p></li>
<li><p>refreshing visions using futurists’ methods to ensure a scientific and democratic engagement process. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Foresight is synonymous with a transforming, renewable and complex urbanism. Globally, cities are driving change and applying foresight to open their markets and improve collective prosperity and places.</p>
<p>The need for sustainable urbanism compels us to update plans not only for physical infrastructure but also for “softer” matters of population, energy, ecology, safety, education, health and seamless connection up, down and across sectors, borders and cultures. The more we think ahead with greater depth and breadth of understanding and co-operation, the better our city futures will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With foresight, we can steer our cities closer to the future we want instead of the futures we fear.Colin Russo, Futurist, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/138252013-05-01T00:20:55Z2013-05-01T00:20:55ZTitanic ambitions: Palmer’s federal push shouldn’t be lightly dismissed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23060/original/rw4trcpj-1367360792.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soon after revealing his plans to build a replica Titanic, Clive Palmer has set his sights on becoming Australian Prime Minister.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Jason Szenes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland has a habit of raising the eyebrows of our southern cousins when it comes to politics “our way”. Visits to friends and family down south always have required explanations about Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Joh for Canberra, Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter, Peter Beattie, and lately, Campbell Newman.</p>
<p>More recently it has been Clive Palmer, our very own mining magnate, reclaiming a bit of Australian political history and making a grand entrance onto the national stage. Mr Palmer is reviving the [United Australia Party (UAP) ](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Australia_Party_(current) and says he wants to be Prime Minister - and since announcing his bold plan a week ago, the momentum behind him has been building.</p>
<h2>The smarts behind the stunts</h2>
<p>Best known nationally as the man who wants to build Titanic II and the franchise owner for a short time of a Gold Coast A-League soccer team, it would be easy for Mr Palmer’s latest venture into politics to be swamped by Titanic jokes and references to <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1753154/Clive-Palmer-unveils-plans-for-life-size-dinosaur">dinosaurs</a>. But Mr Palmer has been a player in Queensland politics for decades. There is sufficient political savvy behind his pronouncements for us to take notice of his intentions. </p>
<p>On election night last year, I sat in the Queensland Electoral Commission’s Brisbane tally room and watched the live cross to the Liberal National Party (LNP) celebrations of their landslide win. The lasting image of that night was not of new premier Campbell Newman claiming victory: it was the loud, raucous offerings of a very excited LNP life-member, Clive Palmer.</p>
<p>Politics watchers here in Queensland were more than familiar with the financial resources Mr Palmer had poured into his beloved LNP; his history with the party and its antecedents was part of Queensland political lore; his role in the Joh for PM campaign is well-known. So whatever you think of the United Australia Party push, Mr Palmer is no political novice seeking to clumsily exert influence for his business interests.</p>
<p>The question some of us here in Queensland ask is “what went wrong, so quickly?”: from the joy of election night to the revival of an historic party and now seeing disaffected state MPs joining the UAP, starting with <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/palmer-signs-up-two-queensland-mps-20130430-2iqjn.html#ixzz2RzCAZB9L">former LNP MPs turned independents Alex Douglas and Carl Judge</a>.</p>
<h2>Politics 101 for a new party</h2>
<p>So what is the likelihood of success for the new UAP?</p>
<p>As my first-year politics student learnt in politics 101 last week, for Mr Palmer to ever become prime minister, he will need the majority support on the floor of the House to achieve that aim. He claims he will have 150 candidates ready, one for each seat in the lower house and candidates for the Senate.</p>
<p>Again, the 150 candidates is an ambitious aim, though not entirely impossible, but he does have a short lead-time to vet and check possible candidates. Mr Palmer has said he will nominate for the federal seat of Fairfax on the Sunshine Coast, a seat that adjoins Fisher, which itself is having an interesting stoush between newly-independent former Speaker Peter Slipper and the LNP candidate, former Howard Government minister Mal Brough. The Sunshine Coast has never had so much political attention.</p>
<p>Both federal seats are safe LNP seats and on-the-ground intelligence suggests that there is little likelihood that the seats will change hands. In drafting state members <a href="http://www.alex4gaven.com.au/">Dr Alex Douglas</a> from the Gold Coast and former police officer <a href="http://www.carljudgemp.com.au/">Carl Judge</a> from Brisbane, the UAP has its required sitting members in time for formal registration with the Australian Electoral Commission - though it is blurring the lines for the electorate between state and federal.</p>
<p>The UAP in this way is not unlike Queensland’s other conservative breakout group, the Katter’s Australia Party. Clive Palmer has also received strong endorsement from popular and respected state independent Peter Wellington, whose state boundaries intersect with the seat of Fairfax. That might garner some support from Wellington supporters when Clive comes doorknocking soon.</p>
<h2>The perils ahead</h2>
<p>I don’t doubt Mr Palmer will attract a reasonable number of votes if he stands. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the major parties and people might like his rambunctiousness sufficiently to cast their vote his way. However, preferences will tell a big story here too. A first preference vote to UAP will send a message to the majors, but the second and third preferences will inevitably be directed to the more conservative side of politics. This will no doubt favour the LNP candidates.</p>
<p>Mr Palmer is here to make a larger-than-life impression, and he will. However, there will be further chapters to this story as the 14 September poll approaches, not the least of which will be the need to clear the air between the politics of this state and the state of politics nationally. Two state MPs do not yet a federal party make. </p>
<p>Mr Palmer’s grand ambition to be PM is unlikely to be realised this time. If he wants the UAP to succeed in the long-term, Mr Palmer needs to heed the lessons of his beloved Titanic. As captain of the ship, he is navigating into perilous political territory - so he will need to keep a close watch on where he is headed, rather than just charging in, full steam ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/13825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donna Weeks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland has a habit of raising the eyebrows of our southern cousins when it comes to politics “our way”. Visits to friends and family down south always have required explanations about Joh Bjelke-Petersen…Donna Weeks, Lecturer, Japanese Studies and International Relations, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.