tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/the-national-party-15012/articlesThe National Party – The Conversation2024-03-07T23:50:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252592024-03-07T23:50:16Z2024-03-07T23:50:16ZThe first 100 days of tax policy bode well for National’s supporters – others might be worried<p>Ahead of the 2023 election, it was clear there was <a href="https://theconversation.com/taxing-questions-is-national-glossing-over-the-likely-cost-of-administering-its-new-revenue-measures-212529">not a lot in National’s tax policies</a> to benefit the least well off. Nothing has happened over the first 100 days of government to change this assessment. </p>
<p>From a progressive perspective, it is clear New Zealand has elected an austerity government. The National-ACT-NZ First coalition is prepared to impose <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/507659/the-public-service-agencies-asked-to-cut-spending">swingeing cuts in the public service</a> and <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350183053/i-am-terrified-how-nationals-benefit-changes-may-impact-disabled-community">curtail welfare</a> to meet its <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/11/24/new-zealand-gets-new-government-promising-tax-cuts-less-red-tape">promises of income tax relief</a> for some. </p>
<p>We won’t know what the tax cuts will be until the Budget on May 30. But early indicators are they will be squarely aimed at National’s voting base.</p>
<h2>What did (and didn’t) survive negotiations</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/11/24/nz-first-scuppers-nationals-foreign-buyers-tax-plan/">foreign buyer’s tax proposal</a> did not survive coalition negotiations with NZ First. We have also heard little more about <a href="https://www.bellgully.com/insights/will-the-new-government-gamble-on-online-casino-gambling-tax/">taxing offshore gambling</a>. Perhaps the government has realised this is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300957731/newsable-taxing-offshore-casinos-easier-said-than-done-says-expert">easier said than done</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/08/31/national-wants-migrants-to-pay-to-play/">Cost recovery from immigrants</a> was another proposed revenue source. Strictly speaking, this wasn’t a new idea. A <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/23568-2022-immigration-fee-and-levy-review-proactiverelease-pdf#:%7E:text=1%2520The%2520intended%2520level%2520of,of%2520total%2520immigration%2520system%2520costs.&text=27.3%2520Retaining%2520the%2520fee%2520rates,Migrant%2520check%2520would%2520be%2520increased">review of immigration fees and levies</a> commissioned by the Labour government in 2022 identified several ways to increase the price of some immigration services, many of which have been implemented. All is quiet on this policy as well. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-first-100-days-have-gone-largely-to-plan-now-comes-the-hard-part-224935">The government’s first 100 days have gone largely to plan – now comes the hard part</a>
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<p>Another component of National’s tax proposals was <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2023-property-council-hits-out-at-policy-proposals-to-remove-depreciation/TZOG4LGOONFJVDCBJN4R4ZG2MI/">removing the depreciation allowance</a> on commercial property. This was an unusual idea for National and we suspect it will not become law.</p>
<p>The phased-in return of <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-nz-landlords-gain-from-the-repeal-of-interest-deductibility-rules-but-it-was-a-flawed-law-from-the-outset-218818">mortgage interest deductibility for residential rental property</a> owners is included in the National-ACT coalition agreement. However, the provisions are more generous than those originally proposed by National and are now retrospective, with a 60% reduction in 2023-24, 80% in 2024-25 and 100% in 2025-26. </p>
<p>This will reduce government revenue and potentially result in tax refunds for residential rental property owners in 2023-24, who will be allowed a 60% interest deduction, rather than 50% under the existing legislation. The announcement in December 2023 that the bright-line test will be <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/first-steps-tax-and-income-relief-announced#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CToday%20I%20am%20announcing%20our,for%20less%20than%20two%20years.">reduced to two years</a> from July 1 2024 will further reduce tax revenue.</p>
<p>The Clean Car Standard was an initiative of the previous government to address vehicle emissions. Research suggested households that would <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2021-01/Clean%2520Car%2520Import%2520Standard%2520Explainer_0.pdf">benefit the most</a> from vehicle and fuel efficiency standards were low-income ones. Despite <a href="https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/clean-car-programme/clean-car-programme-questions-and-answers/">strong support</a>, the clean car discount scheme was repealed in December 2023 as well.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/theyre-nice-to-me-im-nice-to-them-new-research-sheds-light-on-what-motivates-political-party-donors-in-new-zealand-185574">'They're nice to me, I'm nice to them': new research sheds light on what motivates political party donors in New Zealand</a>
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<p>The scheme provided rebates for zero- or low-emission vehicles, and additional fees for high-emission vehicles. New Zealand was already late to the party when this policy was introduced in April 2022. </p>
<p>In 2022, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for around one-third of all new car registrations, which increased to <a href="https://www.canstar.co.nz/personal-loans/top-selling-electric-cars-in-nz/">41% in 2023</a> (26.5% hybrid and 14.5% electric). Sales of electric vehicles in December 2023 (before the removal of the discount) were nearly 14 times higher than those in January 2024. </p>
<p>Electric or hybrid vehicle owners will also start paying road user charges from April 1, 2024. While the government campaigned on no new taxes, extending the tax base does not appear to qualify as a new tax. </p>
<p>Likewise, the recently announced <a href="https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/350200896/car-rego-hike-fund-20-billion-transport-plan">increase in car registration fees</a> to fund a massive road-building programme is not being considered a <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/05/rego-cost-rises-cant-be-a-broken-promise-bishop/">tax increase by the government</a>. </p>
<p>The government has also announced <a href="https://www.times.co.nz/news/motorists-set-to-be-squeezed-by-higher-fuel-prices/">fuel tax increases</a> – scheduled to start in 2027. National ministers have responded to criticism by saying the eventual tax increase will not be in this political term. </p>
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<h2>The Budget should provide clarity</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-introduces-taxation-principles-reporting-act-repeal-bill">Taxation Principles Reporting Act 2023</a> mandated reporting based on specified principles. While there is never full consensus on what good tax principles are, this act would (or should) have resulted in greater transparency on at least some tax measures. However, it was repealed in December 2023.</p>
<p>To reiterate, until the Budget, we won’t gain a full understanding of the government’s tax objectives. </p>
<p>Action taken in the first 100 days of the government has given us a reduction in tax transparency, beneficial tax treatment for residential landlords, reduced incentives for consumption of low-emission vehicles, some clear areas where expenditure will be slashed, but little clarity on how tax cuts will be funded. </p>
<p>While we can’t yet know the full details of tax policy, the expenditure side indicates the poor and the environment will be worst affected, while residential rental property owners will benefit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>National’s tax policies have been tweaked since the election, thanks to coalition agreements with NZ First and ACT. But the plan for tax cuts seems to have survived, to the benefit of core supporters.Lisa Marriott, Professor of Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJonathan Barrett, Associate Professor in Commercial Law and Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222702024-01-31T19:07:29Z2024-01-31T19:07:29ZDon’t lower the price: 3 more effective ways to reduce the costs of smoking<p>Associate Health Minister <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/cabinet/portfolios/health">Casey Costello</a> recently said she was concerned about the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/official-documents-suggest-nz-first-minister-wants-to-freeze-excise-tax-on-cigarettes-but-she-denies-it/D5ZIEESDCFF65I7GS5L4H2FCRA/">financial burden on people who smoke</a>. She has requested advice on freezing the Consumers Price Index (CPI) adjustment applied annually to tobacco products, according to a leaked Ministry of Health document. </p>
<p>But is this really the best option to reduce the cost of smoking?</p>
<p>Costello’s proposal attracted considerable criticism, not least because the rising price of tobacco is well established as the <a href="https://www.who.int/activities/raising-taxes-on-tobacco">most effective tool</a> currently used to reduce tobacco use. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/evaluation-tobacco-excise-increases-final-27-nov2018.pdf">Ernst Young report</a> commissioned by the Ministry of Health found: </p>
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<p>There is strong evidence, both international and from within New Zealand, that demonstrates changes in consumer behaviour as a result of the tax increases –reducing uptake, cutting down consumption and increasing quit attempts, with spikes in quit attempts around January each year in New Zealand. </p>
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<p>The minister is right to be concerned about people who smoke and the enormous drain smoking imposes on their health, wellbeing and finances. But freezing the excise tax on tobacco products won’t ease those costs. </p>
<p>If the minister is serious about reducing the financial and other costs of smoking, here are three tips that will help her achieve her goal. </p>
<h2>Leave the CPI adjustment alone</h2>
<p>For people who smoke a pack a day, freezing the CPI adjustment means they will save around NZ$12 a week or $730 a year. </p>
<p>But if those people quit smoking, they would save $35-$50 a day, or around $13,000 to $15,000 each year. The most important thing that will ease the financial cost for people who smoke is to help them stop smoking – freezing the tobacco excise tax will actually make quitting less likely.</p>
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<h2>Examine what makes it so hard to quit</h2>
<p>We know most people who smoke regret having started and want to quit. <a href="https://aspireaotearoa.org.nz/sites/default/files/2023-12/ITC%20Adult%20NZ%20Report-Dec%2010%202023.pdf">Our study</a> of more than a thousand people who smoke found 74% regret having started, 84% would like to stop smoking, and 81% have tried to stop smoking. </p>
<p>Given this very strong desire not to smoke, what’s preventing people from realising their goal? The answer is simple: addiction. Nearly 90% of people who smoke said they are somewhat or very addicted to smoking.</p>
<p>Tobacco companies have manipulated cigarette nicotine content and the speed with which nicotine is delivered to <a href="https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/harmful-effects-tobacco/how-big-tobacco-made-cigarettes-more-addictive#:%7E:text=Sugars%252C%2520flavors%2520and%2520menthol%2520were,importance%2520to%2520tobacco%2520company%2520executives.">make smoking highly addictive</a>. However, it’s now possible to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3632983/">remove most of the nicotine</a> from tobacco.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/forget-tobacco-industry-arguments-about-choice-heres-what-young-people-think-about-nzs-smokefree-generation-policy-193529">Forget tobacco industry arguments about choice. Here's what young people think about NZ's smokefree generation policy</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsa1502403">Research</a> shows people who smoke very low-nicotine cigarettes cannot smoke enough to get a satisfying dose of nicotine, so they lose interest in smoking and smoke fewer cigarettes. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955395921003418">recent review</a> found low-nicotine cigarettes increased the likelihood of smoking cessation among all population groups. This includes people with psychiatric comorbidities or low socioeconomic status – the group Minister Costello is particularly keen to assist. It will also minimise the likelihood of young people starting smoking.</p>
<p>Aotearoa New Zealand is ready to implement denicotinisation (reducing the levels of nicotine in tobacco products). A <a href="https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobaccocontrol/early/2023/01/10/tc-2022-057655.full.pdf">modelling study</a> predicted this move would bring profound, rapid and equitable reductions in smoking prevalence. However, the new government has announced plans to <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-nicotine-in-tobacco-would-help-people-quit-without-prohibiting-cigarettes-221383">repeal the smokefree law</a> that mandated denicotinisation.</p>
<h2>Use tax revenue for community support</h2>
<p>Because smoking is a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09581596.2014.980396">social practice</a>, many people may find quitting support helpful, even when only low-nicotine cigarettes are available. </p>
<p>Minister Costello has an opportunity to use the tax revenue generated by tobacco sales to support smoking cessation. For example, allocating funds generated by tobacco sales would enable her to increase funding for services that support people who smoke to quit. </p>
<p>Additional targeted support could be particularly helpful to groups that bear a disproportionate portion of the harms caused by smoking.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-doubt-about-it-smokefree-laws-cut-heart-attacks-in-big-way-73724">No doubt about it: smokefree laws cut heart attacks in big way</a>
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<p>Community support has a crucial role to play, as people with local knowledge understand the needs of fellow community members and can respond with tailored advice.</p>
<p>The minister doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel or replace the current evidence-based approach. Several measures that would minimise the enormous burden smoking imposes on thousands of people are ready for implementation – starting with the <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/hp7801_-_smoke_free_action_plan_v15_web.pdf">Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan</a>. </p>
<p>The government should also abandon its plans to repeal New Zealand’s smokefree legislation. The measures this law introduces could profoundly reduce the many costs smoking imposes on those who do it. Furthermore, it would benefit the very people whose plight troubles the minister.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Hoek currently receives research funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, the University of Queensland (Australia) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia). Her affiliations include the Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research, Health Coalition Aotearoa's Smokefree Expert Advisory Group, Aukati Tupeka Kore Group, Project Sunset (International and Oceania), the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, the NZ Cancer Society Research Collaboration, and the Australasian Tobacco Issues Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Waa receives funding from the Health Research Coincil of New Zealand. He is a member of the Health Coalition Aotearoa and a member of Te Ropu Tupeka Kore. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Edwards receives research funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, the University of Queensland (Australia) and the National Institute of Health (US). His affiliations include the Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research, the Public Health Communication Centre Briefing, Smokefree Expert Advisory Group, Health Coalition Aotearoa and the National Tobacco Control Advocacy Service Advisory Group.</span></em></p>If the government is serious about reducing the cost of smoking, it should stick with Labour’s smokefree legislation rather than freezing the price of smoked tobacco products.Janet Hoek, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoAndrew Waa, Lecturer in Public Health, University of OtagoRichard Edwards, Professor of Public Health, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189202023-12-03T22:41:10Z2023-12-03T22:41:10ZNicola Willis warns of fiscal ‘snakes and snails’ – her first mini-budget will be a test of NZ’s no-surprises finance rules<p>New finance minister Nicola Willis has claimed <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/11/26/new-govt-mini-budget-to-be-released-before-christmas-willis/">she was blindsided</a> by the state of the government’s books. Days after stepping into the role, she said:</p>
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<p>The outgoing government has left us with some nasty surprises. There are some fiscal risks that are pretty significant that we’re going to have to work hard to manage.</p>
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<p>Willis has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/502372/mini-budget-will-be-released-before-christmas-nicola-willis">promised to deliver a mini-budget before Christmas</a> to show the “true state of the New Zealand economy and the government’s finances”.</p>
<p>But is it possible for an outgoing government to leave what Willis has called “<a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/11/new-finance-minister-nicola-willis-says-labour-left-government-books-with-snakes-snails-and-nasty-financial-surprises.html">snakes and snails</a>” for the incoming government to deal with? Or is this just the normal politicking of any new administration wanting to look good by comparison?</p>
<p>New Zealand has long had legislation designed to prevent fiscal surprises from happening – the <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1989/0044/latest/DLM160809.html">Public Finance Act 1989</a> and the <a href="http://www.nzlii.org/nz/legis/hist_act/fra19941994n17270/">Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994</a> (which was incorporated into the Public Finance Act in 2004). </p>
<p>The Fiscal Responsibility Act, in particular, was meant to prevent the problems faced by Jim Bolger’s incoming National government in 1990 from happening again. Technically, at least, there should be far fewer snakes or snails for a new government to slip on. </p>
<h2>The opening of the books</h2>
<p>Bolger said he <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/former-pm-recalls-wild-and-wobbly-times-spawning-prefu-an-important-part-of-our-democracy/2KKEUBNYWVBZFITGF5VL5IVOZY/">pushed for greater fiscal transparency</a>. The surplus forecast by the previous Labour government had been produced, in part, by some creative accounting. </p>
<p>He also had to deal with the near collapse of the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/64930274/bnz-inadvertently-rewrites-history-by-omitting-bailouts">Bank of New Zealand</a> due to major losses caused by <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/publications/bulletin/2009/rbb2009-72-04-04">deregulation and some bad loans</a>. The government held a majority share in the bank, which eventually received a bailout before being sold in 1992. </p>
<p>According to Bolger, the outgoing prime minister Mike Moore claimed</p>
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<p>on many, many, many occasions the budget was balanced, it was in surplus, which was totally false. There was no surplus. There was a huge deficit.</p>
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<h2>Reducing fiscal uncertainty</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/guide/guide-public-finance-act#using-this-guide">Public Finance Act requires</a> regular fiscal reporting, including fiscal strategy reports, budget policy statements and economic and fiscal updates.</p>
<p>The reporting is intended to promote the full disclosure of all relevant fiscal information in a timely and systematic manner.</p>
<p>One of the required reporting documents is the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (<a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-2023">PREFU</a>) – Treasury’s economic forecast for the country and the government’s fiscal outlook.</p>
<p>As well as giving a broad overview of the goverment’s finances, the PREFU helps prevent major policy reversals by an incoming government, by ensuring the economic and fiscal information available to them is as complete as possible. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-parties-two-deals-one-government-the-stress-points-within-new-zealands-coalition-of-many-colours-217673">Three parties, two deals, one government: the stress points within New Zealand's 'coalition of many colours'</a>
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<p>It’s harder for a party to claim it can no longer afford a policy if it was well informed. By promoting transparency and policy predictability, the provisions of the Public Finance Act can be seen to be reducing uncertainty from fiscal policy. </p>
<p>While uncertainty is a difficult concept to measure in economics, my own soon-to-be-released research suggests the Act has been successful in achieving this goal. I found net tax and government spending uncertainty were approximately a third lower between 1994 and 2017 than they were between 1972 and 1989. </p>
<p>The result is perhaps more surprising considering the arrival of coalition politics in 1996. Fiscal policy is subject to more uncertainty (or is less predictable) when made by a group of parties with different ideologies.</p>
<h2>Could the 2023 PREFU have been wrong?</h2>
<p>The 2023 PREFU was 164 pages long. About a quarter of the document is dedicated to “Risks to the Fiscal Forecasts”. With such an extensive examination ahead of the 2023 election, you would expect the risk of a shock to be low. </p>
<p>There are four possible explanations for Nicola Willis’ apparent surprise:</p>
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<li><p>The Treasury may have missed some fiscal risks. This seems unlikely given the comprehensive statement of fiscal risks in the PREFU.</p></li>
<li><p>New significant risks may have developed since the PREFU was published in September.</p></li>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/mmp-in-new-zealand-turns-30-at-this-years-election-a-work-in-progress-but-still-a-birthday-worth-celebrating-194622">MMP in New Zealand turns 30 at this year’s election – a work in progress, but still a birthday worth celebrating</a>
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<li><p>The risks Willis referred to may have been mentioned in PREFU, but it was the magnitude of certain risks that surprised the incoming government. If this is the case, could more be done to communicate the magnitude in future?</p></li>
<li><p>Finally, this is all smoke and mirrors from the incoming government to walk back on election promises. Concessions in the coalition agreements with ACT and New Zealand First may have constrained National’s ability to complete its agenda.</p></li>
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<p>Which is the more plausible explanation? Willis has promised more detail in the coming days. But irrespective of the explanation, we need to keep in mind the broader context. </p>
<p>Yes, the odd surprise may happen. But New Zealand’s fiscal policy legislation is pretty good at promoting transparency. If there is a surprise, it is unlikely to be of the magnitude Bolger experienced in 1990. We should be grateful for this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Ryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Public Finance Act is designed to prevent shocks and ‘fiscal cliffs’. And it is unlikely any problems faced by Nicola Willis will match the scale of those that dogged previous governments.Michael Ryan, Teaching Fellow in Economics, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176482023-11-16T01:09:04Z2023-11-16T01:09:04ZLost voices: ethnic diversity in the New Zealand parliament will decline after the 2023 election<p>Since the dawn of the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system in 1996, New Zealand’s parliament has <a href="https://socialreport.msd.govt.nz/civil-and-political-rights/representation-of-ethnic-groups-in-government.html">become increasingly diverse</a>. The 2020 election saw a <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/25-years-of-mmp/a-more-diverse-parliament/">record number of female MPs</a> enter parliament and a <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-11-2023/a-national-act-nz-first-government-would-mean-a-whole-lot-of-men-in-charge-again">world record proportion</a> of MPs from the rainbow community. </p>
<p>Ethnic diversity also increased in 2020, with New Zealand having elected “one of the most diverse parliaments in the world” according to a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/16/asia/new-zealand-parliament-diverse-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">CNN report</a> at the time.</p>
<p>But the 2023 election saw a significant swing to the right, with a host of new MPs entering parliament. This inevitably changed the demographics. </p>
<p>Overall, New Zealand’s parliamentary representation has become less ethnically diverse, with a few exceptions, suggesting some parties need to look at the composition of their candidate lists and memberships. </p>
<h2>Changes since 2020</h2>
<p>The 2023 election result created a more complex picture of ethnic diversity in the country’s political representation. </p>
<p>The increase in the proportion of Māori MPs since the first MMP election has continued. Nearly 27% of MPs in parliament after the 2023 election identify has Māori, up from 22.5% in 2020, and more than double the proportion in 1996 (13%).</p>
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<p>Prior to 1996, none of New Zealand’s MPs were of Asian decent, and only one (<a href="https://www.parliament.nz/mi/mps-and-electorates/former-members-of-parliament/field-phillip/">Taito Phillip Field</a>) came from the Pasifika community. In 2020, 11 Pasifika MPs were elected, accounting for 9% of all MPs. But after the 2023 election, this has dropped to 6%.</p>
<p>The proportion of MPs of Asian ethnicity has only marginally increased, from 6.5% in 2020 to 6.6% in 2023. It’s important to note that “Asian” includes people whose heritage is from the Indian subcontinent as well as East Asia. </p>
<p>In 2020, the first MPs with Middle Eastern, Latin American or African heritage were elected to parliament, making up 1.7% of MPs. In 2023, this increased to 2.5%.</p>
<h2>Parliament and society</h2>
<p>Parties across the political spectrum have different commitments to ethnic diversity. And some parties have do not have any MPs from certain ethnic groups.</p>
<p>For example, the centre-left (Labour, Greens and te Pāti Māori) has a higher proportion of Māori MPs. NZ First and te Pati Māori have no Asian MPs, and only Labour and the Greens have Pasifika MPs in their caucuses. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-green-party-is-filling-the-void-on-the-left-as-voters-grow-frustrated-with-labours-centrist-shift-213061">NZ's Green Party is 'filling the void on the left' as voters grow frustrated with Labour's centrist shift</a>
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<p>Along with having no Pasifika MPs, the National Party has the lowest proportion of Māori MPs of any political party, with just 10% of its caucus identifying as Māori. </p>
<p>Although the party has some MPs of Asian ethnicity in its caucus (6%), for the second term in a row it has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/indonz/501638/national-lacks-indian-representation-in-parliament-for-second-consecutive-term">no MPs of Indian heritage</a>. The Indian community comprises 6.1% of the general population, making it one of the largest Asian groups in New Zealand.</p>
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<p>Compared with the overall population, the next parliament also presents a varied picture. The proportion of Māori MPs, for instance, is notably higher than New Zealand’s Māori population. In 2023, 17.4% of the population and nearly 27% of elected MPs identify as Māori.</p>
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<p>However, the proportion of Pasifika and Asian MPs elected in 2023 falls below their corresponding share of the population. The Pasifika population sits around 9%, but only 5.6% of MPs with Pacific descent were elected. </p>
<p>Similarly, Asian MPs will comprise only 6.6% of parliament, whereas the Asian population now stands at 18% of the total. </p>
<p>Despite this, New Zealand’s ethnic representation compares well with other industrialised democracies. Around 44% of New Zealand’s population and 40% of MPs belong to an ethnic minority group.</p>
<p>Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom have a greater disparity between the proportion of ethnic minority MPs and the proportion of their ethnic minority population. </p>
<p>In Canada, 15.7% of its lower house MPs and 26.3% of its population come from ethnic minority groups, whereas in Australia 6.6% of lower house MPs and 23% of the population belong to ethnic minorities. </p>
<p>The UK performs marginally better, with 10% of MPs in the House of Commons and 16% of the population coming from ethnic minority backgrounds.</p>
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<h2>Minority groups in the executive</h2>
<p>Some minority groups are better represented in parliament than others, but it remains to be seen whether the same can be said about ethnic representation in the cabinet.</p>
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<p>During the 2017-2020 government, 29% of all ministerial appointments were Māori, 13% were Pasifika and only <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/priyanca-radhakrishnan-becomes-new-zealands-first-ever-indian-origin-minister-6913522/">3% Asian</a>. In the 2020-2023 government, 40% of executive office holders were Māori, 14% Pasifika and 7% Asian.</p>
<p>While Māori and Pasifika MPs held high-level executive positions between 2017 and 2023, including Winston Peters and Carmel Sepuloni as deputy prime minister, the same could not be said for Asian MPs. The <a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-06/ministerial-list-21-june-2023.pdf">highest-ranked</a> MP of Asian ethnicity was health minister Ayesha Verrall, who reached number seven in Chris Hipkins’ cabinet.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/500297/lack-of-pasifika-mps-in-govt-a-concern-for-community-reps">concern has already been expressed</a> about the lack of Pasifika representation in the new government, with none of the coalition parties having Pasifika MPs in their ranks.</p>
<h2>Representation and democracy</h2>
<p>As New Zealand continues to grow more ethnically diverse, the question of how this is reflected in political institutions becomes more crucial. </p>
<p>The health of a democratic system like New Zealand’s can be measured by the extent to which minorities participate in its democracy. Minority representation in a democracy is also a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227604270_Minority_Representation_Empowerment_and_Participation">good indicator</a> of other democratic values, such as inclusiveness and legitimacy of the political system. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-zealands-most-diverse-ever-cabinet-improve-representation-of-women-and-minorities-in-general-149273">Can New Zealand's most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?</a>
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<p>Political parties have already been instrumental in improving the representation of women in politics. Both <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/women-together/labour-womens-council">Labour</a> and <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/greens-will-ensure-gender-balance-cabinet">the Greens</a> have policies to promote gender equity in parliament. </p>
<p>Similarly, parties can take a more active role and adopt strategies to enhance ethnic minority representation in politics, particularly from under-represented groups such as New Zealand’s Pasifika and Asian communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Tan is affiliated with the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs (IIPA), Christchurch. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neel Rajesh Vanvari is affiliated with the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs (IIPA) based in Christchurch, New Zealand. </span></em></p>While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.Alexander Tan, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, University of CanterburyNeel Vanvari, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170452023-11-05T22:15:30Z2023-11-05T22:15:30ZWinston Peters back in the driver’s seat for coalition negotiations<p>Here we go again. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-drops-2-seats-on-nz-final-results-and-will-need-nz-first-to-form-government-215995">final results of this year’s election</a> have delivered two more seats to te Pati Māori, thereby increasing the size of New Zealand’s 54th Parliament to 123 seats (once the <a href="https://vote.nz/port-waikato/about/2023-port-waikato-by-election/">Port Waikato by-election</a> has taken place). </p>
<p>The double effect of this “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/500221/election-2023-what-special-votes-and-the-overhang-mean-for-deciding-the-new-government">overhang</a>” is to erase the narrow election night majority held by National (who have lost seats via special votes for the seventh election on the trot) and ACT, and to hand the balance of power to NZ First.</p>
<p>The irony that te Pati Māori’s performance forces three parties who are, at best, <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/nga-mangai-maori-representation/page-3">lukewarm on the idea of Māori seats</a> into formal negotiations won’t be lost on anyone. The larger point, however, is that the results fundamentally change the dynamics of the process required to form the next government.</p>
<p>Until now, contact between National and NZ First has been framed as a means by which Chris Luxon and David Seymour <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/08/national-warns-of-second-election-if-nz-first-talks-fail/">shore up the narrowest of parliamentary majorities</a>. But National and ACT cannot now get to that majority without NZ First. </p>
<p>Once again, as he was in 1996 and 2017, Peters is in the veto position, holding the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-beginners-guide-to-new-zealands-strangest-election-31632">balance of responsibility</a>” (as he called it in 1996, and will likely start doing so again) and central to the process of government formation.</p>
<h2>A brief history of Winston</h2>
<p>Given this, it is worth recalling what happened the last time Peters put National in office. The parallel discussions NZ First held with National and Labour following New Zealand’s <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp/1996-and-beyond">first MMP election in 1996</a> took two months to complete, and Peters’ decision to go with National was made just hours before the public announcement of the coalition. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Jim Bolger was informed of this after Peters’ televised press conference had begun, but Helen Clark, Labour’s leader, learned of the decision at the same time the rest of the country did.</p>
<p>The process <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97807416/that-was-then-what-now-the-1996-nz-first--national-deal">produced the most detailed coalition agreement</a> New Zealand has seen. The document ran to some 50 pages and included detailed commitments in 36 policy domains, a statement of fiscal parameters for the new government’s operations and a supplementary agreement on a range of matters that were not resolved during negotiations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-live-the-kingmaker-winston-peters-and-the-nz-election-24119">Long live the kingmaker: Winston Peters and the NZ election</a>
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<p>Peters secured five Cabinet seats and a further four positions outside Cabinet, as well as a commitment – somewhat bizarrely – that NZ First would take three more seats at the top table in 1998. The government didn’t survive that long, but you can see why this provision angered many within National. </p>
<p>Peters also took on the specially created role of Treasurer, the offer of which swung his decision to go with National. In fact, the books were run by the Finance Minister, National’s Bill Birch, but the splitting of the finance portfolio gave NZ First leverage without making Peters an associate to Birch.</p>
<p>And the whole thing fell apart within two years. Jim Bolger was rolled by Jenny Shipley a year after the election, and the relationship between the new prime minister and her deputy rapidly deteriorated: <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/dismissal-rt-hon-winston-peters">Shipley sacked Peters</a> and formally dissolved the coalition in August 1998.</p>
<p>Given this history, you imagine that Chris Luxon, Nicola Willis and the rest of National’s senior leadership will be approaching the next few weeks warily.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>There is much to be done, including establishing the precise shape of the government. Will it be a formal three-party coalition, or will one of the smaller parties sit outside the executive, supporting it on confidence and/or supply?. </p>
<p>Ministerial portfolios will also need to be distributed – members of three parties will probably be competing for a limited number of positions. This means there there are going to be some very disappointed people – who might, over the long-term, become disruptive.</p>
<p>Just as important will be any decisions taken regarding the arrangements for the day-to-day management of the government. These will attract less public attention, but the rules that coalition partners agree to play by are critical – and were at the centre of the collapse of the National/NZ First administration in 1998.</p>
<h2>Negotiation likely to take time</h2>
<p>While there is no constitutional requirement to have negotiations wrapped up by the December 21, which is the last date by which the new parliament must meet, there is a strong political incentive to do so. It will be a bad look if Luxon cannot get his administration organised by Christmas.</p>
<p>One thing is clear: while Peters can negotiate governing arrangements in his sleep, Seymour has little experience of what it takes to form a government and Luxon has none whatsoever. Indeed, the last time Peters sat down to hammer out a deal with the National Party, Luxon was just three years into his time at Unilever and Seymour was 13 years old.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-to-become-nz-prime-minister-following-coalition-announcement-85996">Jacinda Ardern to become NZ prime minister following coalition announcement</a>
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<p>Adding to the intrigue – especially given the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301001519/tova-podcast-relationships-respect-and-resentment--getting-to-know-winston-peters">premium Peters apparently places on respect</a> – is the <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-09-2023/winston-peters-vs-david-seymour-their-15-most-venomous-insults-ranked?">animus between Peters and Seymour</a>. Luxon’s pre-election position on talking with Peters – which might generously be characterised as tepid – will also not have gone down well at NZ First headquarters. </p>
<p>And while Peters has, in the past, professed disdain for the baubles of office, he might well demand his beloved Foreign Affairs, or another stint as Treasurer (to the fortunate Nicola Willis’ Minister of Finance). Or seek to deny others – Seymour, perhaps – those baubles.</p>
<p>No one knows what the coming days (or weeks) have in store. We are now at that point in political time when bottom lines become guidelines, and conversations that were <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/501639/act-s-david-seymour-reverses-rule-out-of-working-with-winston-peters-in-cabinet">categorically ruled out</a> start taking place. But we should expect the unexpected when Winston Peters does eventually exercise the “balance of responsibility”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217045/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>National and ACT will need to get past their animosity towards NZ First, and its mercurial leader Winston Peters, if the right wing coalition is to have any hope of forming a government.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159952023-11-03T04:34:08Z2023-11-03T04:34:08ZNational drops 2 seats on NZ final results, and will need NZ First to form government<p>The <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/">final results</a> of the October 14 New Zealand election have been released. </p>
<p>The National Party has won a total of 48 seats (down two from the preliminary election night results), Labour has won 34 (remaining steady), the Green Party has won 15 (up one), ACT has won 11 (steady), NZ First has won eight (steady) and te Pāti Māori/the Māori party has won six seats (up two).</p>
<p>These results mean National will need both ACT and NZ First to secure a ruling majority. </p>
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<h2>The parliamentary overhang</h2>
<p>Based on the preliminary results, te Pāti Māori captured four electorate seats, producing a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/500221/election-2023-what-special-votes-and-the-overhang-mean-for-deciding-the-new-government">one-seat overhang</a>. This happens when a party wins more electorate seats than it would be entitled to with its party vote. On election night, te Pāti Māori was entitled to just three seats given its small share of the overall party vote. </p>
<p>But the final vote count gave te Pāti Māori two more seats after the party overturned narrow Labour leads in two Māori electorates (one by just four votes). Te Pāti Māori’s party vote also increased to 3.1%, entitling it to a fourth seat. This means there is a two-seat parliamentary overhang.</p>
<p>These results mean the size of parliament will be 122 seats, up from the normal 120. It will take 62 seats for a majority. </p>
<p>Even if National wins the <a href="https://vote.nz/port-waikato/about/2023-port-waikato-by-election/">November 25 by-election for Port Waikato</a>, as is expected, National and ACT combined will have 60 of the now 123 seats, two short of a majority. </p>
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<h2>Comparison with 2020 election</h2>
<p>This election marked a big swing from the <a href="https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/">2020 results</a>. National has increased its number of MPs by 15, while Labour has lost 31. The Greens gained five MPs, ACT gained one and NZ First gained eight – returning to parliament after falling below the 5% threshold in 2020. Te Pāti Māori has four additional MPs.</p>
<p>There was also a big shift in the party vote. National won 38.1% of the party vote (up 12.5%), Labour won 26.9% (down 23.1%), the Greens won 11.6% (up 3.7%), ACT won 8.6% (up 1.1%), NZ First won 6.1% (up 3.5%) and te Pāti Māori won 3.1% (up 1.9%).</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-polls-understated-the-right-but-national-act-may-struggle-for-a-final-majority-215528">previous analyses</a> I have grouped National and ACT as right-wing parties, while Labour, the Greens and te Pāti Māori are left-wing parties. I have not counted NZ First with either bloc. It supported the Labour government in 2017, and has sided with both major parties in the past.</p>
<p>By this formulation, the right coalition defeated the left by 5.1% in this election, a reversal of a 25.9% win for the left in 2020.</p>
<h2>Polls understated right</h2>
<p>The polls ahead of the election consistently underestimated the popularity of the right-wing parties. </p>
<p>The first graph below shows all polls since March.</p>
<p>The second graph shows the polls since late August, when there was a clear trend back to the left.</p>
<p>The most <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election">accurate polls</a> were the Talbot Mills poll, the Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union and the Verian/Kantar poll for 1 News, but all three still understated the right’s margin over the left. Morgan, Essential and Reid Research all had the left ahead in their final polls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Coalition talks can now start in earnest after the final results for the 2023 election were released.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159942023-10-30T23:33:33Z2023-10-30T23:33:33ZSpecial votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority<p>This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election night.</p>
<p>Special votes tend to take a long time to count because they include <a href="https://vote.nz/2023-general-election/about/2023-general-election/facts-about-new-zealand-elections/">votes cast outside a voter’s home electorate</a>. These votes need to be posted back to the home electorate and checked against the electoral roll before they can be counted.</p>
<p>The decision to release the results on a predetermined day three weeks after the election, rather than providing progress updates as the count is completed, <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/pollies-mps-megan-woods-and-mark-mitchell-on-the-time-taken-to-count-special-votes/">has been criticised</a>. Rolling updates during the counting process, much like Australian state and federal electoral commissions, are preferable. </p>
<p>In past elections, <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-10-2023/nz-election-2023-when-will-the-special-votes-be-counted-and-a-government-formed">special votes have favoured left-wing parties</a>, costing the right one or two seats from the preliminary results.</p>
<p>It’s expected 2023 will follow the same pattern. If it does, this will mean the two party coalition made up of the National Party and ACT will need to expand to include NZ First. </p>
<p>So what are the possible combinations New Zealand could see when parliament sits next? </p>
<h2>Special votes likely to hurt National</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023_preliminary/">preliminary results</a>, National won 50 of the 121 seats in parliament, Labour 34, the Greens 14, ACT 11, NZ First eight and te Pāti Māori/the Māori party four. This gave the right-wing coalition of National and ACT 61 seats, just enough for a majority.</p>
<p>But the results, as they stand, point to the distinct possibility of an “overhang”. An “overhang” occurs when a party wins more single-member electorates than their party vote should entitle them to. </p>
<p>This year, te Pāti Māori won four of the seven Māori-roll electorates on a party vote of 2.6%. They were entitled to three seats, but kept their fourth seat with parliament expanded to 121 seats from the normal 120.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2023-labour-out-national-in-either-way-neoliberalism-wins-again-214723">NZ election 2023: Labour out, National in – either way, neoliberalism wins again</a>
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<p>Some <a href="https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-23-the-special-votes/">commentators believe the most likely outcome</a> after counting of special votes is for National to lose two seats, one to Labour and one to te Pāti Māori. However, the seat gained by te Pāti Māori would entitle them to four seats, eliminating the overhang.</p>
<p>If this happens, National would end up with 48 seats out of 120 and ACT would stay with 11. The right wing coalition would end up with 59 seats out of 120 – not enough for a majority. </p>
<p>Even if National, as expected, wins the November 25 <a href="https://vote.nz/port-waikato/about/2023-port-waikato-by-election/">by-election in Port Waikato</a> that was triggered by the death of an ACT candidate after early voting had begun, the right coalition would hold 60 of the 121 seats, one short of a majority. Labour, the Greens and ACT won’t contest the by-election, so National’s only significant opponent is NZ First.</p>
<p>In this likely scenario, National would need NZ First as well as ACT to achieve a parliamentary majority.</p>
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<h2>The close Māori seats</h2>
<p>There are two close Māori electorate seats where Labour is leading te Pāti Māori by under 500 votes in the preliminary results. While the outcome in an electorate seat is usually unimportant for determining seat entitlements, if te Pāti Māori won one or both of the electorates where they currently trail, the overhang would be extended.</p>
<p>If the 2020 vote pattern holds up in both these seats, <a href="https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-23-the-special-votes/">Labour will narrowly win both</a>. However, the other Māori electorates were much more favourable to te Pāti Māori in 2023 than in 2020. Labour won six Māori seats in 2020 and te Pāti Māori one. </p>
<p>But in 2023, te Pāti Māori has won four electorates while Labour has won one. The other two are too close to call until the results of the special votes have been released.</p>
<p>It is important to note that votes cast outside a voter’s home electorate may reflect the general disposition of the electorate they are cast in. It’s therefore possible that special votes in the close Māori electorates that are cast elsewhere will be better for te Pāti Māori than expected.</p>
<h2>A possible but unlikely scenario</h2>
<p>There is the outside possibility of a National–ACT majority. </p>
<p>To achieve this, National would need to lose just one seat, and that seat would need to go to te Pāti Māori. At the same time, te Pāti Māori would need to fail in gaining another electorate. This scenario would give National and ACT a combined 60 seats out of 120, as there would be no te Pāti Māori overhang. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-a-good-political-leader-and-how-can-we-tell-before-voting-214351">What makes a good political leader – and how can we tell before voting?</a>
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<p>National would then need to win the Port Waikato by-election, giving the right coalition parties a total of 61 of the 121 seats – enough for a majority.</p>
<p>This is possible but, based on previous elections, unlikely. About 20% of the overall vote comes from special votes. In 2020, <a href="https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-23-the-special-votes/">National performed 22% worse</a> in the special votes compared with those counted on the night. </p>
<p>So, the most likely outcome is that NZ First will be needed for a right-wing governing majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of Friday’s final election results, the most likely outcome is National and ACT will need to add NZ First to form a right-wing coalition government. These are the results and seats to watch.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067512023-05-31T02:25:15Z2023-05-31T02:25:15ZHouse of Representatives passes Voice referendum legislation, which is assured of Senate passage<p>After a marathon debate, the House of Representatives on Wednesday morning passed the bill for the referendum for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament to be inserted into the Constitution. </p>
<p>The bill now goes to the Senate where it is assured of passage in June. </p>
<p>The final vote was 121 in favour and 25 against. </p>
<p>Most of the Liberals voted for the bill. The Liberals had indicated that although they oppose the Voice, they would not impede the people having a vote on the issue.</p>
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<p>The Nationals were solidly against. Ten Liberals were authorised to vote against the bill, so they could participate in preparing the no case which will go into the yes/no pamphlet to be sent to all voters. The crossbencher all voted for the bill except Bob Katter, who did not vote. </p>
<p>Over several days some 118 MPs spoke on the bill in the house. </p>
<p>The government has not yet announced a date for the referendum, which will be held in the last quarter of the year. </p>
<p>Liberal MP Julian Leeser, who quit as spokesman for Indigenous Australians in order to to support the yes case, unsuccessfully proposed amendments to remove the power of the Voice to advise executive government. </p>
<p>Leeser said his amendments were “about securing the support of the Australian people” for the referendum.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1663693903504211969"}"></div></p>
<p>“Winning a referendum is hard, and I want the Voice to win – the alternative is too dreadful to contemplate,” Leeser said. </p>
<p>Summing up the debate on Tuesday night, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said: “Australians can have confidence in this constitutional amendment – and confidence that constitutional recognition through a Voice will work.</p>
<p>"The Voice as proposed in this bill would amplify the voices of all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.” </p>
<p>Dreyfus said after a successful referendum a public consultation process would be undertaken to settle the Voice’s design, “including how it will connect with communities and work alongside existing organisations. </p>
<p>"The Voice will represent the diversity of views and needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities to the national parliament and government.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206751/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The final vote was 121 in favour and 25 against. The bill now goes to the Senate where it is assured of passage later this monthMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040162023-04-18T02:00:41Z2023-04-18T02:00:41ZJacinta Nampijinpa Price to be Peter Dutton’s right-hand campaigner against the Voice<p>Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has given his campaign against the Voice added horsepower by elevating high-profile Indigenous Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to become shadow minister for Indigenous Australians.</p>
<p>Price has been one of the loudest, most trenchant opponents of the Voice – at the opposite end of the Coalition spectrum from Julian Leeser, whom she replaces. Leeser resigned from the frontbench last week to campaign for the yes case, triggering the frontbench shakeup. </p>
<p>In a significant reshuffle, Dutton has also brought the Coalition’s other Indigenous MP, South Australian Senator Kerrynne Liddle, into the shadow ministry. Like Price, Liddle, a former journalist and businesswoman, entered parliament at last year’s election. </p>
<p>She will become shadow minister for child protection and prevention of family violence. Dutton has brought this issue to the fore in relation to Indigenous communities with allegations of sexual assault against Indigenous children in Alice Springs. </p>
<p>The reshuffle also sees Karen Andrews, who has been spokeswoman on home affairs (and previously the minister), step down to the backbench. Dutton said Andrews has recently told him she would not run again and would be happy to go to the backbench when there was a reshuffle. </p>
<p>Andrews will be replaced by Senator James Paterson, who under the Coalition government chaired the powerful parliamentary joint committee on intelligence and security. He is already shadow minister for cybersecurity and shadow minister for countering foreign interference. </p>
<p>Senator Michaelia Cash becomes shadow attorney-general (the other portfolio held by Leeser), returning to an area she held in government. She retains her present responsibilities for employment and workplace relations. </p>
<p>The choice of Price had not seemed to be Dutton’s original plan. Coming from the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party, she sits with the Nationals. </p>
<p>Her promotion, following talks between Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud, means the Nationals’ representation is above their quota under the Coalition agreement. </p>
<p>Apart from the quota issue, there were other arguments against Price – that she was too inexperienced and that elevating her would put noses out of joint among Liberals who had been around longer. </p>
<p>But over the past week, calls increased for her appointment from vocal supporters, and she featured widely in the media including on the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday. </p>
<p>Dutton described Price as “a warrior for Indigenous Australians”. </p>
<p>“She’s always fought hard to improve the lives of Indigenous women and kids. She’s done an incredible amount of work to tackle tough issues like the scourge of sexual abuse, domestic violence and the crisis of law and order in some Indigenous communities, particularly Alice Springs most recently.” </p>
<p>Dutton also insisted he had raised the issue of child sexual abuse with the prime minister, despite Anthony Albanese on Monday denying this. </p>
<p>Dutton told his news conference: “There is a systemic problem in Alice Springs, the NT and other parts of the country and a big part of the decision to put Jacinta Price into this portfolio and Kerrynne Liddle into her portfolio is because we want to provide a brighter future for those kids.</p>
<p>"We can’t have a situation where we have young children being sexually abused, the impact psychologically on them, the difficulties it creates within a home environment.</p>
<p>"As we know, in Alice Springs at the moment, there are very significant issues.”</p>
<p>Andrews said that having decided “to call time” on her political career, “I wanted to ensure the Coalition has maximum time to have a replacement in the crucial home affairs portfolio, and the best replacement candidate for [her Queensland seat of] McPherson in place”. </p>
<p>She said in a statement she would continue to to support the Liberals’ position on the Voice. But she told a later news conference: “I won’t be out there wearing a shirt that says vote no. When people speak to me I will go through what
my concerns are, but I want to do that in a very neutral way so that
people are in a position that they can make their own mind up.”</p>
<p>She said she could not support the current words for the referendum, but she was open to working to get a proper set of words.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Price, the new shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, has been one of the loudest, most trenchant opponents of the Voice.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1893842022-08-25T05:03:40Z2022-08-25T05:03:40ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: David Littleproud on charting his course in opposition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481035/original/file-20220825-26-4t8j0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C0%2C5201%2C3483&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>David Littleproud runs his own race. In opposition he’s Nationals leader first and Coalitionist second. Thus he was quick out of the blocks criticising Scott Morrison’s power grab, and when Peter Dutton rejected an invitation to next week’s jobs and skills summit, Littleproud said he wanted to go. </p>
<p>In this Podcast Littleproud says about the government’s planned inquiry into Morrison’s actions: “I’m happy to work within whatever the constraints of what the government decides, that’s their prerogative. But it just seems to me this has now become an obsession of Anthony Albanese.” </p>
<p>Of the conflicting signals from the opposition about the jobs summit, Littleproud says: “We’re two separate parties. I represent the National Party and Peter Dutton represents the Liberal Party. He made a decision on behalf of the Liberal Party that he would not attend.” </p>
<p>He’s scathing that the Nationals were not originally invited. “The fact that this government didn’t even bother to ask anyone from regional and rural Australia to represent their interests was a failing to start with.”</p>
<p>Littleproud has stressed to his party the need to rebuild trust in the community, especially with women. “We’re going to do that at a grassroots level. "We’ve got to listen and understand”.</p>
<p>He is enthusiastic about the Coalition’s embrace of an examination of nuclear power. “I’m pleased to say that Peter Dutton has subsequently been able to get the Liberal Party to support that view. We’re not talking about big nuclear power plants across this country, we’re talking about the emerging technology of small scale modular technology for nuclear that’s appearing particularly in northern America.”</p>
<p>When asked which position is more difficult, being a senior minister with great responsibility or being leader of his party in opposition, Littleproud says: “I think obviously in opposition, because you’ve got to try and convince someone that holds the pen of the necessity of what you’re trying to prosecute”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this Podcast Michelle and David Littleproud discuss a number of topics including the recent Morrison fiasco, the upcoming jobs and skills summit and his vision for the National Party.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1704512021-10-24T07:47:25Z2021-10-24T07:47:25ZThe Nationals finally agree to a 2050 net-zero target, but the real decisions on Australia’s emissions are happening elsewhere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428085/original/file-20211022-28-131ozqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C0%2C5517%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The National Party on Sunday <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-24/nationals-provide-in-principle-support-for-net-zero-2050-target/100564192">agreed</a> to a plan to cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050, clearing the way for Prime Minister Scott Morrison to announce the target ahead of the Glasgow climate summit.</p>
<p>The exact terms upon which the Nationals will give their backing are not yet known. But for Nationals MPs to have withheld support for the target for several weeks, with all the political damage that entails, makes little sense.</p>
<p>The Morrison government, partly through its own doing, has almost no control over Australia’s emissions trajectory. The real decisions on that are being made elsewhere – by state governments and civil society, or outside the country altogether. </p>
<p>Morrison’s last-minute reach for a 2050 net-zero target is almost entirely symbolic, as was the Nationals’ resistance to it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pile of coal and machinery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428086/original/file-20211023-9514-l95cen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demand for Australian coal will fall dramatically in coming years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob Griffiths/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fossil fools</h2>
<p>Morrison was expected to attend the Glasgow summit with a 2030 emissions-reduction target far more ambitious than Australia has promised so far. But he ditched that plan after it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/oct/18/no-change-to-australias-2030-emissions-reduction-target-as-scott-morrison-focuses-on-net-zero-deal">became clear</a> the Nationals would not support it.</p>
<p>Australia’s current 2030 emissions pledge – 26-28% cut based on 2005 levels – is insufficient. Emissions reduction of 35-40% in that timeframe is both <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">feasible</a> and necessary if Australia hopes to reach net-zero by 2050.</p>
<p>But if Australia reduces emissions in line with a net-zero target, it will <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">not be</a> the result of the Morrison government’s policies. </p>
<p>Instead, it will be down to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-states-are-forging-ahead-with-ambitious-emissions-reductions-imagine-if-they-worked-together-160191">state government initiatives</a> and the world-beating enthusiasm of Australian households for rooftop solar. This enthusiasm is in part due to an <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme">incentive scheme</a> from the Rudd-Gillard Labor era.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/02/australian-coal-burnt-overseas-creates-nearly-twice-the-nations-domestic-emissions">biggest contribution</a> to global warming comes in the form of coal and gas exports. But under the Paris Agreement, those emissions count towards the emissions total of the importing countries where the fuel is burned. The future of these exports depends primarily on decisions made by importing countries to implement their own Paris commitments</p>
<p>Most of our major coal and gas export markets have already committed to net-zero by 2050 (or, in China’s case, 2060). But exports of these fuels are likely to decline well before that date.</p>
<p>Electricity produced by new coal projects is <a href="https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost">more expensive</a> than that produced by solar and wind anywhere in the world. As a result, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/14/most-plans-for-new-coal-plants-scrapped-since-paris-agreement">around 76%</a> of coal-fired power plant projects announced since 2015 have been cancelled. </p>
<p>Further cancellations and accelerated closure of existing plants will happen regardless of any decisions made in Australia.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy-169541">Asia's energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="solar panels across hilly landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428087/original/file-20211023-9125-1v3jxxs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nations such as China seeking to meet their own emissions targets will require fewer coal imports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">Yes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wishful, technocratic thinking</h2>
<p>Even on domestic emissions, the Morrison government has little influence thanks to a variety of self-imposed limitations. </p>
<p>The great asset of the Commonwealth is its power to tax. However, the current government has effectively surrendered this option under the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-23/pm-defends-his-technology-not-taxes-approach-to-emissions/13315616">slogan</a> “technology not taxes”. With <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/make-electric-cars-cheaper-labor-promises-tax-breaks-for-evs-battery-storage-20210330-p57f8y.html">the possible exception</a> of tax cuts for electric vehicles, Labor has taken the same position.</p>
<p>Technological progress is indeed crucial. If it weren’t for the massive reduction in costs of wind and solar power, we would almost certainly be headed for climate catastrophe. But the Morrison government has little influence over global technological progress.</p>
<p>In practice, “technology not taxes” appears to be wishful thinking about options like carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and (for some) nuclear power. Proponents of these technologies presumably believe they will make the emissions problem go away without crossing any ideological red lines. </p>
<p>But it’s been evident for at least a decade that <a href="https://theconversation.com/backwards-federal-budget-morrison-government-never-fails-to-disappoint-on-climate-action-147659">neither</a> of these <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-is-buying-a-fleet-of-nuclear-submarines-but-nuclear-powered-electricity-must-not-come-next-168110">technologies</a> is likely to be a feasible option for Australia. Should there be a surprising new development that puts them back in the technology race, it will almost certainly come from overseas.</p>
<p>There are some technological options. The government could adopt vehicle emissions standards, and set them at levels that would accelerate the shift to electric vehicles. This proposal has been supported by the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/publications/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia">Climate Change Authority</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/03/morrison-government-urged-to-set-sector-specific-emissions-reduction-targets">Infrastructure Australia</a> and even the <a href="https://premium.goauto.com.au/fcai-supports-emission-standard/">Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries</a>. </p>
<p>But having <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-10/federal-election-fact-check-electric-vehicle-tow-boat/11078464?nw=0&r=HtmlFragment">claimed</a> in 2019 that such a policy would “end the weekend”, Morrison is in no hurry to change course. As with coal and gas, it’s likely the transition will be driven by external forces. </p>
<p>Most major vehicle manufacturers have <a href="https://www.firstpost.com/tech/news-analysis/evs-are-the-future-a-list-of-all-carmakers-who-have-decided-to-phase-out-ice-vehicles-and-go-electric-9744401.html">committed</a> to end the production of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035. It’s likely that many popular models will cease being updated – or stop production altogether – before then.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-has-refused-to-support-doubling-australias-2030-emissions-reduction-targets-but-we-could-get-there-so-cheaply-and-easily-169932">Barnaby Joyce has refused to support doubling Australia's 2030 emissions reduction targets – but we could get there so cheaply and easily</a>
</strong>
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</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cars parked at charging stations" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428088/original/file-20211023-9318-1wiopab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vehicle manufacturers are moving away from traditional cars and towards electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The Morrison government has ceased to be a major player in determining Australia’s future greenhouse gas emissions, and the speed with which they will fall. </p>
<p>But the National Party is right to demand, as it reportedly has, that the government implement transition policies for regional industries such as mining and agriculture. There will be plenty of demand for a wide range of minerals in a net-zero economy, though not for coal or gas. The transition away from these fuels is a major shift, but entirely feasible.</p>
<p>As for agriculture, it was always likely emissions reductions would be achieved primarily by subsidising farmers to reduce land clearing and methane emissions rather than through taxes or mandates. </p>
<p>But Australia’s agricultural sector would be a major loser under rapid global warming. If the National Party really cared about its electoral base, it would have been leading the charge for a net-zero emissions policy, not holding it back.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170451/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>The real decisions on Australia’s emissions reduction are being made by state governments and civil society, or outside the country altogether.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1701382021-10-18T11:04:39Z2021-10-18T11:04:39ZView from The Hill: A small step for everyone else is a big leap for the Nationals<p>The Nationals appear to be inching towards accepting the net zero 2050 climate target, wrapped in a protective layer of cotton wool and of course accompanied by expensive sweeteners.</p>
<p>After all they’ve said over the years, the step is a huge one for them. But apart from the symbolism, for everyone else it’s a very small one, moving from the government’s present policy of reaching net zero “preferably” by 2050.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison, addressing the Liberal parliamentary party on Monday, spelled out what he intends to take to Glasgow and what he has no intention of taking.</p>
<p>He’s determined to present a firm 2050 commitment. He knows that if he doesn’t, Australia will be a pariah.</p>
<p>He’s now far enough down the 2050 target road that he can’t afford not to get his way, even if he has to add some strong-arming to the largesse on the table for the Nationals.</p>
<p>In his speech to the Liberals he indicated the policy decision was one for cabinet, not the party rooms (though the Nationals would contest that, and Barnaby Joyce has flagged he needs the consent of a majority of his colleagues, accepting he won’t get them all).</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/joyce-says-nationals-dont-want-bigger-2030-climate-target-as-party-room-frets-about-regional-protections-170085">Joyce says Nationals don't want bigger 2030 climate target as party room frets about regional protections</a>
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<p>In question time later, Morrison reiterated who’s in charge. “The government decision on the government’s commitments for Australia in relation to Cop26 will be made by the government in cabinet.”</p>
<p>In urging his position in the Liberal party meeting, Morrison said that on the climate issue the world had moved on, highlighting the change in the United States.
take </p>
<p>He referenced Australia’s place in the western alliance and warned that if it decided to be out of lockstep with its friends it would draw down very seriously on the capital it had built up over decades.</p>
<p>Morrison also made clear the government won’t lift Australia’s 2030 target of a 26-28% reduction in emissions on 2005 levels.</p>
<p>This leaves the Coalition agonising over 2050 when the focus of other countries is on 2030. It would be easier to understand if the agonising were over a new 2030 target.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-has-refused-to-support-doubling-australias-2030-emissions-reduction-targets-but-we-could-get-there-so-cheaply-and-easily-169932">Barnaby Joyce has refused to support doubling Australia's 2030 emissions reduction targets – but we could get there so cheaply and easily</a>
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<p>Morrison says the current 2030 target was an election commitment – that gives him a rationale for sticking with it. Regardless, the Nationals, who are having enough trouble worrying about nearly three decades away, would never buy pledging more by 2030. So their party room was not even asked to consider it.</p>
<p>Instead, Morrison will be armed with “projections” of what emissions reductions Australia expects to reach. The numbers aren’t yet known but it is speculated emissions could decrease by 32-36% by 2030.</p>
<p>The matters to be resolved to get the Nationals in the 2050 tent are said to be about money, messaging, the protections for the regions, and the practicalities of the government’s plan. The timeline is unclear.</p>
<p>Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud on Monday was sounding encouraging. “We’re working through this issue pragmatically, understanding what the prime minister is trying to achieve.</p>
<p>"There could be winners and losers in this, but we’ve got to understand where they are and who they are and how do we address that. But if you’re a coal miner in central Queensland, you shouldn’t be shuddering in your boots today. Coal mining will continue for well beyond 2040.”</p>
<p>What was needed, Littleproud said, was “a calm environment” for consideration of the climate plan. “There’s a lot of religion in this. But the religious zealots from both sides need to bugger off and let the adults in the room work through the issues.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs</a>
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<p>He’s right of course, although the observation is more than a bit rich when Nationals’ “zealotry” has held back progress on the climate issue for more than a decade.</p>
<p>As he nails down his own policy, Morrison is already ramping up his attacks against Labor’s yet-to-be released one.</p>
<p>He declares the opposition has “no plan” and offers a “blank cheque” (as distinct, presumably, from the government’s very large cheque now being written for the regions).</p>
<p>And, “every time you hear Labor talking about cutting emissions, they are putting up your taxes”. No mention of the fact “your taxes” would be paying quite a lot for the government’s policy too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison is clear what he will and will not be taking to the Glasgow conferenceMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698382021-10-13T03:58:01Z2021-10-13T03:58:01ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood on managing the shift in climate policy<p>The Morrison Government is in the painful throes of a climate policy shift to embrace a target of net zero by 2050, ahead of next month’s Glasgow conference. This requires a deal with the divided, noisy, fractious Nationals. </p>
<p>We’re joined in this podcast by Tony Wood, Director of the Energy Program at the Grattan Institute, to talk about Glasgow, Australia’s policy and the fallout from the necessary transition to lower emissions. </p>
<p>“[The government] will talk about […] how technology will be fundamentally important to meeting a net zero target. And that’s absolutely true,” Wood says. </p>
<p>[But] policy will be important as well. </p>
<p>“The government job, then, is to address the barriers and issues that arise. </p>
<p>"In some cases, it will mean losses of jobs in some sectors, but it also means growth of jobs in other sectors. And that’s where the big opportunities lie. </p>
<p>"Sectors actually are not really looking to be protected from the consequences of reducing emissions. In fact, they want to be part of the process of driving these changes, so they can actually have some control over their destiny,” Wood says. </p>
<p>“So the farming community wants to be part of the solution. They’ve already committed themselves to net zero by dates which are much earlier than 2050. And now the Business Council, which represents some of those big mining companies for example, they’ve also committed to net zero by 2050. </p>
<p>"As you think about winners and losers […] we do know that one thing is for certain – that losers shout about their losses much more than the winners boast about their gains. </p>
<p>"So what the government puts in place to try and bring those areas of the economy along with them, where the concerns will arise, will be fundamentally important. They will obviously have had to provide some sort of concessions in the announcements around how they’re going to ensure that rural and regional and mining communities are being considered in this process.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of next months Glasgow conference, the Morrison Government aims to secure a climate deal with the Nationals ahead of a potential policy shift to net zero by 2050.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1688552021-09-28T06:43:53Z2021-09-28T06:43:53ZPodcast with Michelle Grattan: Coalition free-for-all over 2050 target<p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this episode, politics + society Senior Deputy Editor Justin Bergman and Michelle canvass the internal brawling that’s happening – which has included Nationals minister Bridget McKenzie attacking treasurer Josh Frydenberg – as Scott Morrison seeks a deal with Barnaby Joyce for the government to endorse a target of net zero emissions by 2050 for the Glasgow climate conference. </p>
<p>They also discuss Morrison’s indication this week that he mightn’t go Glasgow. The aftermath of lockdowns could make it a risky time to be out of the country.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/Azalai/Gaena">Gaena</a>, Blue Dot Sessions, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168855/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society Senior Deputy Editor, Justin BergmanMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687362021-09-26T10:35:56Z2021-09-26T10:35:56ZAgitated Nationals grapple with climate debate, as former minister Chester takes ‘a break’ from party room<p>A tough debate is expected when a highly volatile Nationals parliamentary party meets on Monday, ahead of climate change negotiations between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce to endorse a target of net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Joyce is under dual pressure, with his party room sharply divided over the 2050 target, and former minister Darren Chester announcing, in a weekend statement which criticised Joyce without naming him, that he is taking “some time away” from the party room. </p>
<p>No details of the climate plan are yet on the table, but strong positioning is underway, with negotiations between Morrison and Joyce resuming once the PM, returning on Sunday night from his American trip, is back in the country.</p>
<p>The Nationals meet every fortnight remotely when parliament is not sitting.</p>
<p>Joyce indicated on Friday he would accept the government adopting a firm target of net zero emissions by 2050 provided the regions were not worse off. He also wants some largesse for the Nationals.</p>
<p>At the same time he is expressing concerns and gives the impression of being dragged reluctantly towards an agreement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-falls-sort-of-into-step-for-the-net-zero-march-168671">View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce falls (sort of) into step for the 'net zero' march</a>
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<p>Morrison was pressed again while in the US about increasing Australia’s ambition on climate policy and has signalled he proposes to do so. But he has to get the minor Coalition partner on side.</p>
<p>Both President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have pushed Australia hard as the November Glasgow climate conference draws near.</p>
<p>The government’s current position is net zero “preferably” by 2050.</p>
<p>Interviewed by the ABC on Sunday, Joyce provided little fresh clarity. But asked whether there should be no coal jobs lost, he said, “well, not by reason of domestic policy”.</p>
<p>Deputy Nationals leader and agriculture minister David Littleproud, who supports the 2050 firm target with safeguards and incentives for the regions, told Sky that members of the Nationals party room were “pragmatic”. They were “looking through the lens of protecting regional Australia but making sure there’s opportunity for regional Australia to also participate in this”.</p>
<p>But former resources minister Matt Canavan tweeted, “I am deadset against net zero emissions. Just look at the disaster the UK is living through. They’re switching off their industry to keep their lights on, and they are struggling to feed themselves. Net zero emissions would just make us weaker.”</p>
<p>Resources minister Keith Pitt said: “We are yet to see the strategy, the plan, the cost, and who’s paying.</p>
<p>"My priority will be the 1.2 million direct and indirect jobs associated with the resources sector”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-after-the-deal-on-security-scott-morrison-turns-to-the-shift-on-climate-168606">Grattan on Friday: After the deal on security, Scott Morrison turns to the shift on climate</a>
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<p>Chester, who is a supporter of net zero, won’t be in the meeting to help advance the case. He said he had “decided to take a break from organised meetings, events and activities in The Nationals Federal Parliamentary party room.</p>
<p>"I will reassess my position when Federal Parliament resumes in October.</p>
<p>"To be clear, I continue to support the Coalition government but want some time away from the The Nationals Federal Parliamentary party room to reflect on a number of significant issues.</p>
<p>"My decision follows months of frustration with the repeated failure of the leadership to even attempt to moderate some of the more disrespectful and offensive views expressed by a minority of colleagues.”</p>
<p>Chester, who was dropped from the frontbench when Joyce became leader, has been highly critical of Queensland National George Christensen, whose string of provocative comments have included, most recently, accusing Victorian police of using excessive force against demonstrators, and suggesting they should be arrested.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-prepares-ground-for-morrison-to-commit-to-2050-target-168610">Frydenberg prepares ground for Morrison to commit to 2050 target</a>
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<p>Joyce on Sunday again indicated he could not silence Christensen, who is retiring at the election, and said that anyway, there was a right of free speech.</p>
<p>Asked on SBS whether he thought he had the support of the majority of the Nationals to go forward on climate policy, Morrison said: “It’s not about my view. It’s about what I think Australians are clearly looking for”.</p>
<p>“My job is to bring my government together to focus on the plan that can achieve it.</p>
<p>"A plan [that] says to Australians, whether they’re up in the Hunter, or down in Bell Bay, or up in Gladstone or up in the Pilbara […] this is how we achieve net zero emissions in the future.</p>
<p>"Our view is that we can achieve that by keeping the costs low, keeping people in industries, ensuring we’re using transition fuels that take us from one place to the next, and we take people on the journey,” Morrison said.</p>
<p>The communique from the QUAD summit which Morrison attended at the end of his trip said: “We have joined forces to tackle the climate crisis, which must be addressed with the urgency it demands.</p>
<p>"Quad countries will work together to keep the Paris-aligned temperature limits within reach and will pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>"To this end, Quad countries intend to update or communicate ambitious NDCs [nationally determined contributions] by COP26 and welcome those who have already done so.” </p>
<p>The QUAD includes the US, Australia, Japan and India.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce are set to negotiate the roadmap for Australia’s climate change policy, while grappling with potential fallout from the National Party.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1593542021-05-06T13:26:16Z2021-05-06T13:26:16ZA return to the archives sheds light on German spies in South Africa during WWII<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398330/original/file-20210503-17-x1iouy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Ossewabrandwag on parade during WWII. The then political opposition collaborated with the Germans. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">OB Photo Collection/Records, Archives and Museum Division, North-West University</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The story of the intelligence war in South Africa during the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-II">Second World War</a> is one of suspense, drama and dogged persistence. South Africa officially joined the war on 6 September 1939 by siding with Britain and the Allies and declaring war on Nazi Germany.</p>
<p>South African historians have largely overlooked the intelligence war, partly because of the apparent paucity of reference sources on it. This lack of attention prompted me to investigate the matter further. The result was my <a href="https://www.takealot.com/hitler-s-spies-secret-agents-and-the-intelligence-war-in-south-a/PLID72152497">book</a> <em>Hitler’s Spies: Secret Agents and the Intelligence War in South Africa</em>.</p>
<p>The book offers a new perspective on this lesser known episode of South African history. </p>
<p>After six years of research at various archival depots in South Africa and the United Kingdom, I was able to provide a fresh account of the German intelligence networks that operated in wartime South Africa. My book also details the hunt in post-war Europe for witnesses to help the South African government bring charges of high treason against those who aided the German war effort. </p>
<p>My research shows how, during the war (1939 to 1945), the German government secretly reached out to the political opposition in South Africa, the <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv02996/06lv02997.htm">Ossewabrandwag</a> (oxwagon sentinels). This group was founded as an Afrikaner cultural organisation in Bloemfontein in 1939. During the war, the movement became decidedly anti-imperial and increasingly militaristic. The government regarded it as the proverbial “enemy within”.</p>
<p>The Germans were especially interested in naval and political intelligence. Accurate naval intelligence on ships from Europe and the Far East rounding the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Cape-of-Good-Hope">Cape of Good Hope</a>, South Africa’s southernmost point, would allow German submarines to attack them. </p>
<p>Political intelligence could further help the Germans to spread sedition within the then <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/union-south-africa-1910">Union of South Africa</a>. At the time, this was a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/dominion-British-Commonwealth">dominion</a> – a self-governing entity within the British Empire with English and Afrikaner populations. German agents were dispatched across the globe during the war to collect military and political intelligence. These agents undermined the overall Allied war effort to varying degrees of success.</p>
<h2>Hitler’s spies in South Africa</h2>
<p>A network of German agents was established in South Africa with the help of the Ossewabrandwag. These agents used a variety of channels to send coded messages to German diplomats in neighbouring Mozambique for onward transmission to Berlin. Due to the neutrality of Portugal during the war, Mozambique, then a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Mozambique/Colonial-Mozambique">Portuguese colony</a>, was a safe haven for German agents and diplomats in southern Africa.</p>
<p>By mid-1942 a radio transmitter was built by the <a href="https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11090242">Felix Organisation</a> with the help of the Ossewabrandwag and located near <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/vryburg-bophirima-region">Vryburg</a>, a large farming town in what is now South Africa’s North West province. The Felix Organisation was headed by the agent <a href="https://www.academia.edu/36804117/The_Felix_Affair_Lothar_Sittig_the_Ossewabrandwag_and_the_Trompke_Network">Lothar Sittig</a> and was the premier German intelligence organisation in wartime South Africa. This radio transmitter eventually allowed for direct, two-way radio contact between agents and Berlin. </p>
<p>But the cooperation between the Ossewabrandwag and the German agents did not go unnoticed. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396271/original/file-20210421-15-getttk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Through the combined efforts of the South African authorities, all illicit wireless communications between South Africa, Mozambique and Germany were intercepted and decoded. </p>
<p>The British and South African authorities were thus aware of the full extent of contact and cooperation that existed between key members of the Ossewabrandwag and the German agents operational in South Africa. They planned several unsuccessful raids on the illicit radio transmitter near Vryburg. These largely failed due to the dubious loyalties of some of the members involved. </p>
<p>This is evidenced by the existence of several British Security Service (MI5) case files at <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/">the National Archives</a> of the United Kingdom. These are filled to the brim with documentary evidence detailing every minute aspect of this episode in South African history. </p>
<h2>Consequences</h2>
<p>Following the war, the South African authorities were anxious to charge known war criminals, traitors and collaborators. Missions headed by the state prosecutors Rudolph Rein and Lawrence Barrett were established to interview key suspects and collect evidence with the view of bringing criminal charges against known South African traitors and collaborators. </p>
<p>The Barrett Mission was particularly interested in the charismatic leader of the Ossewabrandwag, <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/cis/omalley/OMalleyWeb/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv02996/06lv03000.htm">Hans van Rensburg</a>. He, along with a trusted inner circle, acted as the nodal point for German agents operating in wartime South Africa. A case of high treason was built against Van Rensburg. </p>
<p>The case was terminated following the 1948 electoral victory of the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/national-party-np">National Party</a>, which would go on to formalise apartheid. Van Rensburg disappeared from the political scene in South Africa soon thereafter. The Ossewabrandwag movement was dissolved in 1952. </p>
<p>It seems the post-war drive towards greater Afrikaner unity proved more important than charging fellow Afrikaners with high treason, despite the overwhelming evidence against them. </p>
<p>After 1948 there was a determined move towards reconciliation within the Afrikaner community. This culminated in the formal establishment of the Republic of South Africa <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/republic-south-africa-established">in 1961</a>. </p>
<p>With the passage of time these wartime events all but vanished from the South African collective memory. Gatekeeper mentality at archives, missing documents and the removal of key evidence from public circulation combined to stymie further research on this topic. The high treason docket against Van Rensburg, for instance, was deposited at the National Archive in Pretoria in 1948. It was placed under embargo for an undisclosed period. This document has since gone “missing”.</p>
<p>My book proves, however, that the missing narrative on the intelligence war in South Africa can be reconstructed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evert Kleynhans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following the war, the South African authorities were anxious to charge known war criminals, traitors and collaborators. But nothing came of it.Evert Kleynhans, Senior Lecturer in Military History, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508892020-11-30T13:17:58Z2020-11-30T13:17:58ZWhat history teaches us about shaping South Africa’s new cannabis laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371735/original/file-20201127-23-1oosep4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A T-shirt worn by a cannabis advocate during a court hearing on the legality of the plant in South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">RODGER BOSCH/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African <a href="https://www.news24.com/health24/Lifestyle/Street-drugs/Plants/Dagga-20120721">cannabis</a> policy is currently at a crossroads. In 2018, the Constitutional Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-court-frees-cannabis-from-colonial-and-apartheid-past-103644">effectively decriminalised</a> private cannabis use. Since then, the government has continued to grapple with how to regulate this plant and its products, locally called ‘<a href="https://www.etymonline.com/word/dagga">dagga</a>’. </p>
<p>A cannabis <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/bills/2020-CannabisBill.pdf">bill</a> to clarify legal reforms was recently presented in parliament. Yet, medical and civil rights groups who advocate rights-based approaches <a href="https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/archives/sa-drug-policy-initiative-proposed-cannabis-bill-does-not-reflect-the-spirit-of-2018-concourt-ruling/">remain wary</a> of the ongoing potential for discrimination. They argue it will benefit the affluent and <a href="https://www.groundup.org.za/article/rastas-march-against-new-cannabis-bill/">impact negatively</a> on vulnerable communities, who may not have space at home to cultivate the crop and will be criminally penalised for smoking cannabis outside the home.</p>
<p>With a cannabis industry estimated at <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/18/1806583/0/en/New-Study-Estimates-the-Global-Cannabis-Market-at-Over-340-Billion-USD.html">over $300-billion</a> worldwide, much is at stake. Already, South African boutique producers are navigating <a href="https://iono.fm/e/916260">legal loopholes</a> to deliver cannabis products to young, urban middle-class consumers. Some government officials see dagga as a ticket to <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-02-25-medicinal-and-skincare-benefits-of-cannabis-in-david-makhuras-sights/">economic growth</a>. This is through agriculture and medicinal products that can be marketed for pain alleviation, sleep and skin care. </p>
<p>But, would further liberalisation invite <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/poldev/">“corporate capture”</a> as some development practitioners fear?
If so, what will happen to people in rural communities who, for decades, have eked out risky livelihoods by illegally cultivating dagga? History provides crucial insights into the questions of social justice at stake in current policy debates. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2020000100005&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en">recent study</a> using police statistics from the mid 1900s uncovers trends in cannabis arrests and seizures, by geographical area. It shows the South Africa apartheid state to have been a pioneer in supply-side drug control strategies, targeting rural cannabis farmers in the most impoverished parts of the country. </p>
<p>Listening to the lessons of history means protecting and promoting the interests of those people who nonetheless developed a thriving national cannabis economy through indigenous knowledge, entrepreneurship and toil.</p>
<h2>What police records reveal</h2>
<p>From early in the 20th century, state approaches to dagga control were deeply entangled in racist colonial and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid</a> policies. These maintained spatial divisions based on race and ethnic classifications. But segregation created conditions that allowed illicit commercial cannabis farming and trade to develop and thrive. </p>
<p>“Tribal” reserve areas were long the protected or undetected spaces for dagga production. These “homelands” were mostly rural territories that were put aside for majority black South Africans to live in under various chieftainships. </p>
<p>Officials informally tolerated dagga in “tribal” areas, even after its prohibition in 1922. For over two decades, policing was overwhelmingly focused on keeping cannabis and cannabis smoking out of the white-managed towns and cities. </p>
<p>This changed under a new political regime. In 1948, the National Party was <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/chapter-1-victory-nationalist-party-1948">elected</a> by white voters. Even before it passed its first apartheid law, the new cabinet commissioned a formal, nation-wide investigation into “dagga abuse”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cannabis-in-south-africa-the-duplicity-of-colonial-authorities-129915">Cannabis in South Africa: the duplicity of colonial authorities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There had been calls for such an investigation since the 1930s, when more people of colour moved into the cities. Liberal activists and welfare officials considered dagga smoking a barrier to progressive reforms, urban security and class respectability. In the late 1940s, even before the National Party victory, government was increasing police capacity. </p>
<p>Under <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/book-4-industrialisation-rural-change-and-nationalism-chapter-3-afrikaner-nationalism-1930s">Afrikaner nationalism</a>, however, a push for order – both moral and political – was supercharged. Authoritarian tactics backed an agenda pinned on Calvinist principles, modernist ambitions and a white supremacist vision. The political will and means to stamp out dagga increased.</p>
<p>In 1952, the Interdepartmental Committee on the Abuse of Dagga published its <a href="https://fieldsofgreenforall.org.za/report-of-the-interdepartmental-committee-on-the-abuse-of-dagga-1951/">report</a>. It recommended curtailing cannabis trade and consumption. Most consequentially, it advocated for a focus on the sources of cannabis supply for the urban market.</p>
<p>Squads of police were now routinely deployed to destroy cannabis crops. Much of this was grown within or around impoverished “tribal” territories, by poor families and especially women.</p>
<p>Two decades before US President Richard Nixon popularised the phrase “<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/from-the-archive-blog/2011/jul/22/drugs-trade-richard-nixon">war on drugs</a>”, South Africa had adopted a systematic supply-side approach to cannabis law enforcement, targeting growers.</p>
<h2>A drug war</h2>
<p>Numbers of arrests and amounts of cannabis seized by police rose dramatically from the mid-century. The vast majority of arrests continued to be for charges of possession. But police raids in rural locations accounted for enormous quantities of dagga being confiscated in the decades that followed. </p>
<p>In addition to the numerical evidence, other historical documents indicate further extreme consequences of the target on cannabis production. In 1956, a police raid near Bergville, in the eastern part of the country, revealed the growing violence in these encounters between the police and communities defending their precarious livelihoods. Five policemen were brutally killed by community members. In retaliation, 22 people were convicted and hanged by the state.</p>
<p>The relative scale of the cannabis economy in South Africa is a notable element in this story. In 1953, <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2020000100005&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en">United Nations records</a> comparing six years of cannabis seizures for 46 countries showed South Africa accounted for a mind-blowing 50% to 76% of the world’s reported total.</p>
<h2>What this teaches us</h2>
<p>The take-away here is twofold. It’s not just a story of victimisation but also of resilience. On the one hand, the notorious nature of colonial and apartheid policing was a visible demonstration of white minority state power. Yet, at the same time, the statistics show both the endurance of indigenous dagga practices as well as the steady growth of a national cannabis agribusiness. This was developed through the entrepreneurship of marginalised people in socially oppressive and criminalised conditions.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-court-frees-cannabis-from-colonial-and-apartheid-past-103644">South African court frees cannabis from colonial and apartheid past</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Policymakers need to listen to the voices of people <a href="https://www.soas.ac.uk/news/newsitem148724.html">most affected</a> by state drug control. This means also looking for voices silenced by history. </p>
<p>In the South African story of cannabis, the mid-century shift in policing strategy is a <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0018-229X2020000100005&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en">critical</a> episode.</p>
<p>Additionally, it reveals South Africa as a precocious case in the broader and global ‘war on drugs’ chronology. Together with other research, a historical picture adds to a <a href="https://www.hrw.org/blog-feed/rethinking-war-drugs">growing body</a> of international evidence that shows state drug wars as an ineffectual and socially devastating response to the realities of substance use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thembisa Waetjen has received NRF funding as a rated researcher.</span></em></p>Policy makers need to protect and promote the interests of people whose indigenous knowledge and toil developed a thriving national cannabis economy - in the face of harsh police crackdowns.Thembisa Waetjen, Associate Professor of History, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1442122020-08-27T10:59:38Z2020-08-27T10:59:38ZMangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi: a reappraisal of his fight against apartheid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352164/original/file-20200811-13-1n07c84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Veteran South African politician Mangosuthu Buthelezi addressing parliament in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s 20th century history is closely associated with the term <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/apartheid">apartheid</a>. The policy of strict racial segregation was the guiding principle of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/National-Party-political-party-South-Africa">National Party</a>, which represented a predominantly Afrikaans-speaking white minority. The party was voted into government by white South Africans, the only citizens to have the franchise, in 1948. In 1994, the first democratic elections replaced the regime with a government <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/04597239308460952?journalCode=tssu20">based on popular vote</a>. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, a system of “petty apartheid” which separated the physical day-to-day interaction of racially defined groups was complemented by a policy euphemistically called “separate development”. People were forcibly resettled to scattered reserves for indigenous African communities in ten ethnically defined <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/homelands">Bantustans or “homelands”</a>. These were KwaZulu, Transkei, Ciskei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, Gazankulu, KaNgwane, KwaNdebele, Lebowa and QwaQwa. </p>
<p>The Transkei (1976), Bophuthatswana (1977), Venda (1979) and Ciskei (1981) were finally declared “independent”. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/KwaZulu">KwaZulu</a>, designed as home to four million Zulu people, was granted “self-government” in December 1977. But Mangosuthu Buthelezi, head of the entity since 1976, steadfastly resisted any bogus independence. </p>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/major-general-bantubonke-bantu-harrington-holomisa">Bantu Holomisa</a> followed a similar trajectory to Buthelezi. In 1988 he ousted the leader of the Transkei. He then turned self-government into an instrument against apartheid. In contrast to Buthelezi, Holomisa closely collaborated with the liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/mangosuthu-gatsha-buthelezi">Buthelezi</a> was the only one from the initial generation of Bantustan leaders who played a significant role in South Africa’s transition to democracy. His subsequent role as Minister of Home Affairs (1994-2004), Member of Parliament and leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party until 2019 testify to his political influence.</p>
<p>Two recent PhD theses provide new insights challenging the notion that Buthelezi could be reduced to a puppet of Pretoria’s minority regime and a sellout. Putting him in the league of some of the most notorious Bantustan leaders, such as the <a href="https://sahistory.org.za/people/kaiser-daliwonga-matanzima">Transkei’s Chief Kaiser Matanzima (1915-2003)</a> or Bophuthatswana’s <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/lucas-manyane-mangope">Lucas Mangope (1923-2018)</a>, would be wrong. </p>
<h2>Fighting the system from within</h2>
<p>Four years ago Adam Houldsworth <a href="http://scholar.ufs.ac.za:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11660/4047/HouldsworthA.pdf;jsessionid=B41C2C6F899271C77B98E5FF9FD35E82?sequence=1">presented a PhD thesis</a> on “Inkatha and the National Party, 1980-1989” at the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein. It explored in detail the engagement of Buthelezi with the National Party’s government politics in the 1980s. He shares instructive and intriguing archival material from inside the government and the National Party. It documents important domestic policy shifts, influenced by Buthelezi’s political manoeuvres. </p>
<p>Mounting pressure forced the apartheid regime in the 1980s to reformulate its strategy and to enter negotiations over a post-apartheid society. Investigating the politics of Buthelezi and Inkatha in this process recognises a neglected dimension. As Houldsworth argues, Buthelezi occupied a “distinctive and paradoxical position”, which “defies straightforward categorisation”.</p>
<p>Additional insights are now added by Aljoscha Tillmanns. His <a href="https://www.uni-due.de/graduiertenkolleg_1919/tillmanns_aljoscha.php">research</a> on “Inkatha during political turmoil” analysed the political action of Buthelezi, Inkatha and associated organisations during the same period. He <a href="https://www.roehrig-verlag.de/shop/item/9783861107545/development-for-liberation-von-aljoscha-tillmanns-gebundenes-buch">presented</a> a PhD thesis this year at the University of Duisburg-Essen on “Development for Liberation. MG Buthelezi’s and Inkatha’s initiatives towards a different South Africa, 1975-1994”.</p>
<p>Based on further archival material, Tillmanns’ focus provides more insights into the internal dynamics and power struggles in Inkatha. He explores the anchoring of cultural-regional Zulu identity as the (re-)invention of tradition for hegemonic purposes in day-to-day politics. For him too, the evidence suggests that Buthelezi’s policy made him anything but a vassal of the apartheid regime.</p>
<p>For both Houldsworth and Tillmanns, Buthelezi was in fundamental opposition to apartheid. This was despite the fact that he was less radical than the ANC. While willing to negotiate with the National Party, he was never prepared to sacrifice certain fundamental convictions. </p>
<p>Houldsworth quotes Gavin Relly, former chairman of Anglo American, from an interview in December 1994, as saying that Buthelezi’s refusal to comply with homeland independence made him</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the anvil on which apartheid was broken.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Reformism as pragmatic opportunism</h2>
<p>Both theses stress that much of the underlying notion in Buthelezi’s position resembles features of the conservative political philosophy of <a href="https://thegreatthinkers.org/burke/">Edmund Burke (1729-1797)</a>. His political ideology was guided by a belief in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/consociationalism-in-south-africa-the-buthelezi-commission-and-beyond/B13976D6FA30234CBE5E5D3C7A33C7D6">consociationalism</a>. This could be seen as an attempt to engineer closer cooperation with liberal and conservative whites in a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/721987?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">“politics of compromise”</a>. </p>
<p>His political intentions found wide approval and remarkably uncritical support in influential West German liberal and conservative policy circles.</p>
<p>At the same time Buthelezi’s policy was to strengthen his role in competition with the ANC. His confidence and trust in the existing forms of state and economy estranged him from the liberation movement. He disagreed with its partly socialist connotations and the collaboration with the <a href="https://minds.wisconsin.edu/handle/1793/79140">Communist Party</a>. In his own version, the falling out in 1979 was also over the disagreement about <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/how-the-anc-and-inkatha-fell-out--mangosuthu-buthe">resorting to armed resistance</a>.</p>
<p>Buthelezi’s socio-political visions were rooted in a combination of tradition and modernity for the sake of development. For him, development was rooted in strengthening two notions. The first was of a (partly invented) <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/history-in-africa/article/inkatha-and-its-use-of-the-zulu-past/14E0B3C8A767C4811A3A1AD974A1EA77">Zulu past</a>. The second was the notion of <a href="http://transformationjournal.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/426-379-1-PB.pdf">ubuntu</a> (humanness), which encapsulates the sub-Saharan moral ideals expressed with the maxim, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-archbishop-tutus-ubuntu-credo-teaches-the-world-about-justice-and-harmony-84730">“a person is a person through other persons”</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, he demanded the release of Nelson Mandela throughout the 1980s as a precondition for negotiations over power sharing options. He believed that Mandela would be a moderating element in a negotiation process including the ANC.</p>
<p>As Houldsworth summarises:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Buthelezi sought to improve Inkatha’s prospects by advocating a long and multi-faceted negotiating process which would allow for the gradual moderation of African politics and the reconciliation of disparate black groups … Inkatha politics were to an extent shaped by considerations of expedience in its efforts to retain or gain influence in South African politics. (p. 210)</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Imprint</h2>
<p>To what extent Buthelezi and Inkatha were responsible for the dramatic escalation of political violence in the late 1980s remains a matter reserved for further discussion. But Tillmanns concludes with a sobering reminder:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The ugly side of history should not be forgotten. The change of the 1980s and the uncertainty that came along with it allowed violence in the fight for territory, but also for resources, to spread … Inkatha reacted to the increasing activities of the ANC alliance with countermeasures that led to a spiral of violence in which no side remained innocent. (p. 413)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Buthelezi (92) deserves better than being dismissed as a stooge. But he deserves little praise as an advocate for human rights and civil liberties. It seems to be fair to conclude that his own appetite for power was always stronger than his commitment to values. But no matter on which side of history he is placed, he will remain the only first generation leader of a Bantustan who left an imprint on South Africa’s way to democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henning Melber has been the external examiner to both the PhD theses presented. </span></em></p>Mangosuthu Buthelezi deserves better than being dismissed as an apartheid stooge. But he deserves little praise as an advocate for human rights and civil liberties.Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1321312020-02-20T13:24:49Z2020-02-20T13:24:49ZWhy South Africa’s white leaders shouldn’t get into comparative politics of sin<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316408/original/file-20200220-92518-xhlzyi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former South African President FW De Klerk at the opening of parliament recently. The Economic Freedom Fighters objected to his presence.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Reuters Pool</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>FW De Klerk, South Africa’s last apartheid-era president, and his foundation, have learnt the hard way the dangers of the comparative politics of sin. He recently gave an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBE844vDkx4">interview</a> to mark his <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02039/04lv02103/05lv02104/06lv02105.htm">historic speech</a> to parliament on 2 February 1990 when he announced the freeing of Nelson Mandela and unbanning of political organisations. During the interview on the national TV broadcaster he was asked for his thoughts on the declaration by the United Nations that apartheid was a crime against humanity, he replied:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t fully agree with that.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He went on to assert that he was not justifying apartheid in any way whatsoever, saying: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>But there is a difference between calling something a crime. Like genocide is a crime. Apartheid cannot be, for instance, compared with genocide. There was never a genocide.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He added that more black people were killed by other black people than by the National Party government. But in making this statement he conveniently chose to forget that a great deal of violence was <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/trc/media/1998/9810/s981029z.htm">fomented by the government’s security forces</a>.</p>
<p>De Klerk was immediately engulfed in controversy. Condemnation of his statement came in thick and fast. Big names entered the fray, including former president <a href="http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/mbeki-condemns-statement-made-by-de-klerk/">Thabo Mbeki</a> and Anglican Archbishop Emeritus <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-02-16-tutu-takes-on-de-klerk-withdraw-your-statement-about-apartheid/">Desmond Tutu</a>. The South African Council of Churches <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sacc-calls-on-de-klerk-to-retract-and-apologise-for-his-apartheid-remarks-20200215">issued a statement</a> as did the governing African National Congress (<a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/anc-condemns-fw-de-klerk-foundation-for-denying-apartheid-was-a-crime-against-humanity-42809984">ANC</a>). And the opposition party Economic Freedom Fighters called for his ejection from parliament when President Cyril Ramaphosa was waiting to deliver his State of Nation speech. </p>
<p>De Klerk’s foundation <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/fw-de-klerk-foundation-responds-to-effs-attack">responded</a> by dismissing the UN’s statement as a product of Soviet-style “agit-prop”. This aroused yet more popular fury. </p>
<p>Such was the outcry that De Klerk opted for an immediate and humiliating retreat, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-02-17-fw-de-klerk-apologises-for-statement-that-apartheid-was-not-a-crime-against-humanity/">issuing an abject apology</a>, and insisting that he remained firmly committed to the politics of national reconciliation. His foundation also backtracked. It issued an apology for any anger and hurt caused. In its <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/fw-de-klerk-foundation-withdraws-apartheid-statement-apologises-to-sa-20200217">statement</a> it said it agreed with the International Criminal Court’s definition of a crime against humanity as acts</p>
<blockquote>
<p>committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But it’s unlikely the incident has brought about a sea-change in De Klerk’s personal beliefs, or the political assumptions that guide his foundation. Indeed, it is not unlikely that his twin beliefs – that apartheid was not a crime against humanity and that apartheid cannot be equated with genocide – are shared by many white South Africans, even though they are rarely so incautiously stated in public. </p>
<p>This is why it’s important to take a little time to challenge them. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former President FW de Klerk on unbanning of political parties and Mandela’s release.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Immoral argument</h2>
<p>Let’s start with the issue of apartheid’s killings not amounting to genocide. </p>
<p>If the body count is the only criterion for mass killings to qualify as genocide, then it has to be acknowledged that there is truth in De Klerk’s statement. The thousands killed under apartheid cannot reasonably be compared to the millions systematically exterminated by, most notoriously, the Nazis during the <a href="https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/what-was-the-holocaust/">Holocaust of European Jews</a> between 1941 and 1945.</p>
<p>But is the argument that “we weren’t so bad as the Nazis” really one with which De Klerk really wants to be associated? Can that be regarded as a moral defence, especially if we recall that apartheid was implemented in the wake of World War II, following the revelation of the horrors that had taken place in the Nazi death camps in the name of racial supremacy? </p>
<p>It is, in any event, of no great comfort to people suffering brutality of any kind to be told that there is always someone else who is suffering worse than them. </p>
<p>Now to the question of the description of apartheid as a crime against humanity.</p>
<p>De Klerk might well respond that his <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/national-party-np">National Party</a> implemented apartheid in good faith in 1948, believing it to be a moral course of action whereby the white minority and black majority could live peacefully and productively alongside one another, without either one dominating the other.</p>
<p>He might back this up by adding that this benevolent view of apartheid was shared and propagated by the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/002200946700200404?journalCode=jcha">Dutch Reformed Churches</a> and that the National Party of the time was confident it was pursuing a genuinely Christian policy. </p>
<p>But De Klerk would also need to engage with the fact that this position was challenged by such outstanding individuals as the anti-apartheid theologian and fellow Afrikaner <a href="http://www.sun.ac.za/english/faculty/theology/bnc/beyers-naud%C3%A9-the-person">Beyers Naude</a>. And, the Dutch Reformed Church belatedly confessed that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/03/11/world/main-white-church-in-south-africa-says-apartheid-is-sinful.html">apartheid was a sin</a>.</p>
<p>Despite all these qualifications, it seems that De Klerk continues to find it hard to accept that apartheid was a crime against humanity. But, the position that <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/1973-un-convention-on-apartheid-as-a-crime-against">apartheid was a crime against humanity</a> was established and pursued by the UN because, first, apartheid entrenched racial superiority and inferiority, and second, it systematically enforced the inferiority and oppression of black South Africans through law. </p>
<h2>Questions for philosophers and historians</h2>
<p>It is also now well established, even if De Klerk professes not to have known about the atrocities committed by apartheid security forces at the time, that these were a systematic accompaniment of apartheid law, and that in any case, the law was broken by the regime’s operatives if and when they found it convenient to do so. </p>
<p>It was not legal to torture people in detention. But the state did just that, resulting in the deaths of hundreds. Among them were the trade unionist <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/neil-aggett-inquest-court-hears-how-detainees-were-tortured-to-brink-of-death-42550420">Neil Aggett</a>, activist <a href="https://theconversation.com/ahmed-timol-the-quest-for-justice-for-people-murdered-in-apartheids-jails-116843">Ahmed Timol</a> and black consciousness movement leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-bikos-black-consciousness-philosophy-resonates-with-youth-today-46909">Steve Biko</a>. </p>
<p>De Klerk should accept that doubting the criminality of apartheid is an insult to their memories and their families. </p>
<p>He has apologised for causing hurt and offence to South Africans. </p>
<p>Let us accept that this apology was genuine. Nonetheless, we are left with the impression that the former president remains insensitive to the feelings of the mass of South Africans. He is simply out of touch. If he learns nothing else from this incident, it is that he should leave assessments of the moral qualities of apartheid to the philosophers and historians – and shut up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall has received funding from the National Research Foundation</span></em></p>It seems that former president FW De Klerk continues to find it hard to accept that apartheid was a crime against humanity.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311642020-02-04T11:12:20Z2020-02-04T11:12:20ZView from The Hill: Michael McCormack’s battle to hold off a second shot from Joyce’s locker<p>Scott Morrison dodged a bullet when the Nationals clung on to Michael McCormack. There was palpable relief when the news came through to the Liberals. “We still have a Coalition,” one MP was heard to say during the Liberal party meeting.</p>
<p>But it had been the Prime Minister who created the circumstances for Barnaby Joyce to get his gun out of the cupboard.</p>
<p>If Morrison hadn’t been in such a politically weak position, due to his summer missteps, he’d probably have brazened out the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>Morrison didn’t force Bridget McKenzie from cabinet because she skewed the grants scheme - for which she deserved sacking.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-bridget-mckenzie-falls-but-for-the-lesser-of-her-political-sins-131011">View from The Hill: Bridget McKenzie falls – but for the lesser of her political sins</a>
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<p>He acted because the price of keeping her became too high. But then suddenly the cost of ditching her skyrocketed when Joyce seized the moment. Morrison found he had destabilised the deputy prime minister he desperately needs to keep in place.</p>
<p>How things will pan out now is the unanswerable question. Of course no one believes Joyce’s protestation that “I support the vote of the [party] room”. Joyce can’t bear not being the macho top dog and he and his ally Matt Canavan – self-exiled from cabinet and a huge loser from the day – will continue to create trouble for McCormack.</p>
<p>The Nationals don’t release their voting numbers. McCormack people claim he had a healthy margin; the Joyce camp says they were line ball. If McCormack’s backers are right the secrecy harms him, fuelling uncertainty and the opportunity for mischief.</p>
<p>The easy consensus is McCormack must “lift his game”. Might as well tell a jogger to become a sprinter. McCormack isn’t the worst of leaders but he’s never going to be more than average.</p>
<p>And having acquired the reputation of a poor performer, he can’t win. Thus he’s criticised for having a low profile when Morrison was in Hawaii. But could he have raised it when the prime minister’s office was trying to hide their boss’s holiday?</p>
<p>The rebel (for want of a better description) Nats attack McCormack for not standing up to the Liberals, in particular to Morrison. They seek a more distinctive Nationals branding.</p>
<p>Now this is a real issue. A well-functioning National party has to strike a balance within the Coalition between, if you like, growling and purring. Each Nationals leader must find a sweet spot. Assertive but supportive in the government’s inner sanctums. In the electorate, distinctive while also a team player.</p>
<p>But if McCormack follows the wishes of the Nationals to be more aggressive, this carries its potential dangers. On the flip side of that coin is “division”, a bad look for the government as a whole.</p>
<p>McCormack might be a pushover but Morrison has not been sensitive to their mutual interest in the Nationals’ profile. John Howard gave them a few wins, and recognition. Morrison tends to occupy whatever space is available. His very personal central role on drought issues, for example, has overshadowed the Nationals on their home ground.</p>
<p>If Morrison wants to prop up McCormack he needs to pump his tyres. As former Nationals senator John (“Wacka”) Williams told Sky, there was a message in Tuesday’s events for Morrison: “Don’t make the Nationals irrelevant”. The Nationals had to be treated with respect and get some pats on the back, Williams argued.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ schism triggered a reminder that Morrison is in a no win situation internally on climate change policy, as he faces an increasing need to nuance it.</p>
<p>In Tuesday’s Coalition parties meeting (coming immediately after the vote) a bevy of Nationals - Joyce, Canavan, George Christensen and David Gillespie - sent hardline messages on climate among talk of regional jobs and industry. Joyce said some people were trying to push their hobby horse issues out of the fire tragedies. To one Liberal source, these outpourings from the Nationals’ losing side were a bit weird and not very coherent.</p>
<p>They were met by a counter from some moderate Liberals. Earlier, in the separate Liberal party meeting, Queenslander Andrew Laming criticised those who went on policy “solo flights” on climate. The government’s policy was based on the science, which had been overwhelmingly accepted, Laming said – to contest the science undermined the policy.</p>
<p>McCormack’s next test is immediate – recrafting his frontbench. He has two cabinet vacancies, with Victorian Darren Chester expected to fill one.</p>
<p>What happens with the key resources portfolio vacated by Canavan will be crucial, given the coal issue and energy battles. Whether McCormack should have invited Canavan back is a moot point. Canavan (a loud voice for the coal industry) has a sharp policy mind; also, he might have been less trouble for McCormack if still on the frontbench than rampaging round the backbench.</p>
<p>Among the complexities of the reshuffle is that with the fall of McKenzie and Canavan the Nats have no Senate minister, but the remaining three senators (all women) are parliamentary newcomers. Still, one of these women will surely be in line for promotion, at the least to an assistant minister. McCormack sources believe all six women in the 21-member party voted for him; certainly most did. </p>
<p>The significance of the Nationals new deputy, David Littleproud, should not be overlooked in considering the future. Littleproud is competent, ambitious and articulate. He was frustrated at having his portfolio sliced back after the election.</p>
<p>His presence could assist McCormack. At 43, he has plenty of time and, in the National party tradition, an incentive to support his leader and inherit the mantle rather than trying to snatch it.</p>
<p>But if McCormack can’t survive until the election, the party would be better off turning to Littleproud than to Joyce, who would carry a maximum risk factor, not least for Morrison.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison dodged a bullet when the Nationals clung on to Michael McCormack. There was palpable relief when the news came through to the Liberals. “We still have a Coalition,” one MP was heard to say…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311332020-02-04T00:01:50Z2020-02-04T00:01:50ZTo Scott Morrison’s relief, Michael McCormack holds his job as Nationals’ leader<p>Nationals leader Michael McCormack has seen off a challenge from Barnaby Joyce but now faces the formidable task of trying to bring together a fractured party that lost two cabinet ministers this week.</p>
<p>The result will be a deep relief to Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He stood to be a big loser if forced to partner with Joyce, who promised a more assertive approach and would have pressed for concessions when re-negotiating a Coalition agreement.</p>
<p>The Nationals do not release the results of their ballots, which inevitably leads to speculation – and mischief-making – about the numbers. Some media sources claimed the numbers were lineball but McKenzie backers declared that rubbish. Only the whip, Damian Drum, and a scrutineer, Perin Davey, had access to the ballot papers.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-challenges-mccormack-with-pitch-to-make-nationals-more-assertive-131047">View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce challenges McCormack with pitch to make Nationals more assertive</a>
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<p>The party elected Water Resources Minister David Littleproud as deputy. He replaced Bridget McKenzie who was forced to resign at the weekend after the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>McCormack’s reshuffle will now have to be substantial because Matt Canavan, who has been resources minister, quit cabinet to campaign for Joyce. A tight-lipped McCormack made it clear he would not be reinstating Canavan.</p>
<p>McCormack told a news conference he did not expect another challenge from Joyce.</p>
<p>“I’ve been endorsed as leader. I was endorsed as leader when we came back here after the May election last year, I was endorsed as leader when he stood down in 2018. That’s three times in less than two years. I think that is enough to warrant me leading the party going forward.”</p>
<p>But Joyce is unlikely to give up his ambition, and having a restive Canavan on the backbench will be unhelpful for McCormack. McCormack must also battle the public perception that he is a bland and weak leader.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the Nationals have not in the past been inclined to change leaders between elections, which will provide some protection for McCormack.</p>
<p>Frontbencher Darren Chester, who stands to be returned to cabinet, apologised to the community for the Nationals’ self-indulgence, which came on the day parliament has dedicated to the bushfire victims and heroes.</p>
<p>“I’m disappointed, I’m somewhat embarrassed that we’re going through this today. I want to offer an apology to the Australian people.” </p>
<p>Chester said regional Australians were suffering the consequences of drought and bushfires. “On a day when the parliament … is due, to debate a condolence motion, to have us talking about ourselves is embarrassing.” </p>
<p>Littleproud said: “The shenanigans are over, it’s time to get back to looking after those people that are facing drought, that have faced up to the fires. It’s time for us to focus on them, not us. The party has to focus on that”. </p>
<p>Joyce said in a statement: “It is appropriate that if an issue needs resolving as to contentions held, there is a procedure to resolve it as is noted in our parliamentary system. That process has been followed and the issue is finalised. This was made as brief as possible prior to the first sitting of parliament for the year.</p>
<p>"I support the vote of the room and will strive for the re-election of a Morrison McCormack government as this is definitely the better outcome for Australia and especially of regional people.</p>
<p>"Now my first attentions go back to where they were before this week, the New England, drought, fires and now the threat of coronavirus.”</p>
<p>McKenzie has received the minor consolation of being re-endorsed by the party room as the Nationals’ Senate leader. Canavan remains her deputy.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-minister-david-littleproud-on-bushfires-drought-and-the-nationals-127016">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Minister David Littleproud on bushfires, drought, and the Nationals</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The result will be a deep relief to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who stood to be a big loser if forced to partner with Joyce.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1310472020-02-03T11:56:34Z2020-02-03T11:56:34ZView from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce challenges McCormack with pitch to make Nationals more assertive<p>The Nationals have exploded into a major crisis with Resources Minister Matt Canavan offering his resignation from the ministry on Monday to throw his support behind Barnaby Joyce’s bid to oust Michael McCormack from the leadership.</p>
<p>In a Monday night news conference Canavan told reporters the Nationals needed “a bulldog”, “a fighter”.</p>
<p>Earlier Joyce informed McCormack he would challenge, with a spill to be moved when the party meets on Tuesday morning.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ meltdown has been triggered by the forced resignation of Bridget McKenzie from the cabinet and Nationals deputy leadership, after the secretary of the Prime Minister’s department, Phil Gaetjens, found she had breached ministerial standards by not declaring her membership of gun clubs in the sports rorts affair.</p>
<p>While only a new deputy needed to be elected, Joyce has seized the opportunity to make his leadership run. On Monday night the numbers were unclear in the McCormack-Joyce battle.</p>
<p>The leadership fight is driven by Joyce’s unrelenting desire to return to the job he had to forfeit in early 2018 amid a scandal around his personal life.</p>
<p>But it is fuelled by widespread criticism of McCormack, both inside and outside the Nationals, for a perceived lack of cut-through. This is despite the fact the Nationals held their ground at the 2019 election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-the-story-of-an-unlikely-rise-and-a-self-inflicted-fall-92361">Barnaby Joyce: the story of an unlikely rise and a self-inflicted fall</a>
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<p>Canavan made it clear a switch to Joyce would mean a more forthright stand on policy by the Nationals - by extension within the Coalition. This would make the relationship much more difficult for Scott Morrison. McCormack’s critics within the party accuse him of being too subservient to Morrison.</p>
<p>Most immediately, a change of leader would mean a new Coalition agreement, with the Nationals demanding extra concessions.</p>
<p>Joyce recently attracted attention with his <a href="https://twitter.com/Barnaby_Joyce/status/1209372444726743046">“Merry Christmas” video</a>, showing him feeding cattle, in which he gave his take on the climate issue. </p>
<p>“Now you don’t have to convince me that the climate’s not changing, it is changing - my problem’s always been whether you believe a new tax is going to change it back. I just don’t want the government any more in my life; I’m sick of the government being in my life. </p>
<p>"And the other thing is, I think, we’ve got to acknowledge … there’s a higher authority beyond our comprehension … right up there in the sky. Unless we understand that it’s got to be respected, then we’re just fools, and we’re going to get nailed.”</p>
<p>One issue for the Nationals is how a return to Joyce would be received by women in regional areas, among some of whom his reputation was tarnished by allegations of sexual harassment. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/03/rural-women-warn-nationals-not-to-restore-barnaby-joyce-to-leadership">The Guardian on Monday reported</a> a number of rural women opposing his reinstatement.</p>
<p>Joyce on Monday said the National party had to be on the “balls of its toes as we face some of the most challenging times.</p>
<p>"We have to speak with our own voice and we have to drive agendas because it is going to be an incredibly tough game for people in regional areas,” he said.</p>
<p>“We’ve got to make sure that we are not a shadow of another party.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/richard-di-natale-quits-greens-leadership-as-barnaby-joyce-seeks-a-tilt-at-michael-mccormack-131029">Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack</a>
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<p>While praising McCormack’s “tireless” campaigning efforts, Canavan said the broader environment the Nationals faced in regional Australian had changed.</p>
<p>“We struggle to get our voice heard … we just have to fight a bit harder,” he said.</p>
<p>“I do think that on a number of fronts we must be more forceful on issues that are threatening the livelihoods of those in regional Australia.”</p>
<p>“We need a bulldog, we need a fighter to fight back against those who want to take away people’s coal jobs, who want to shut down cane farms,” said Canavan, who is a passionate advocate for the coal industry. </p>
<p>“We’ve got so much to do with the Nationals party,” he said. “And I do think a change in direction here will allow us to do that better
for our constituents.”</p>
<p>Joyce was “an effective fighter” and “that’s why I’m backing him”.</p>
<p>In another complication over ministerial standards, Canavan revealed he had just recalled his link to the North Queensland Cowboys, which last year was awarded a $20 million loan by the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, that sits under his ministry. </p>
<p>He did not believe this was a conflict of interest, saying he did not approve NAIF loans. But a press release from him last year said “Canavan approves $20 million for NQ Cowboys”. Canavan admitted he should have declared the link and he has referred the matter to the Prime Minister’s office. </p>
<p>Queensland National Llew O'Brien flagged he would move for a spill when the 21-member Nationals party room meets. </p>
<p>David Littleproud, the Water Resources Minister, is the frontrunner for the deputy vacancy. He is not contesting the leadership. Frontbencher Darren Chester, a McCormack supporter, said he would not run for deputy.</p>
<p>Late Monday Canavan had not formally resigned from the cabinet: while offering his resignation to McCormack he has to tender it formally to Morrison, which he said he would do Tuesday morning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nationals’ meltdown has been triggered by the forced resignation of Bridget McKenzie, and while only a new deputy needed to be elected, Joyce has seized the opportunity to make his leadership run.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1310112020-02-02T08:53:18Z2020-02-02T08:53:18ZView from The Hill: Bridget McKenzie falls – but for the lesser of her political sins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313170/original/file-20200202-41476-1xvx16p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Agriculture Minister and Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie has finally fallen on her sword, after intense pressure on her to limit the government’s damage from the sports rorts affair ahead of parliament resuming this week.</p>
<p>But McKenzie has been pushed out not for rorting the sports grants program for political advantage – as shown by the Auditor-General’s investigation - but on the lesser matter of failing to declare her membership of gun organisations.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison announced her resignation from cabinet late on Sunday after receiving a report from his departmental secretary, Phil Gaetjens, on whether she breached ministerial standards. She has also stepped down as Nationals deputy.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/remembrance-of-rorts-past-why-the-mckenzie-scandal-might-not-count-for-a-hill-of-beans-130793">Remembrance of rorts past: why the McKenzie scandal might not count for a hill of beans</a>
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<p>Gaetjens’ controversial finding is that she did not unduly favour marginal seats in allocating the sports grants.</p>
<p>This is in stark contrast to the audit report highlighting a “distribution bias” in the decisions of the then sports minister, who did not follow the ranking from the independent assessment process undertaken by Sport Australia.</p>
<p>The audit found funding reflected the approach of the minister’s office “of focusing on ‘marginal’ electorates held by the Coalition as well as those electorates held by other parties or independent members that were to be ‘targeted’ by the Coalition at the 2019 Election”.</p>
<p>Morrison said Gaetjens had found that “applications from marginal or targeted seats were approved by the minister at a statistically similar ratio of 32% compared to the number of applications from other electorates at 36%”.</p>
<p>The prime minister quoted Gaetjens – whose report he will not release - as saying he found no basis for the suggestion that political considerations were the primary determining factor.</p>
<p>But Gaetjens did find McKenzie breached ministerial standards in failing to disclose her membership of the Wangaratta Clay Target Club, which received a grant. </p>
<p>Gaetjens indicated she should have declared a conflict of interest and stood aside for another minister to make the relevant decisions in relation to any organisation of which she was a member.</p>
<p>She also had a problem with her membership of Field and Game Australia, which had not been disclosed until later. A couple of this association’s parts had received grants.</p>
<p>The government has defended from the get-go the distribution of the grants. At the same time, ministers have wanted McKenzie gone, to stem the political damage of the affair. But the opposition will pursue the issue in parliament, and there could be a Senate inquiry.</p>
<p>After receiving the Gaetjens report on Saturday night, Morrison on Sunday took it to the governance committee of cabinet, which was briefed by the secretary. Morrison asked Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack to speak to McKenzie, who was also briefed by Gaetjens.</p>
<p>McCormack was not at the Morrison news conference. Morrison said he was on his way to Canberra.</p>
<p>The Nationals must now elect a new deputy to replace McKenzie, with Water Resources minister David Littleproud the frontrunner. The party will meet on Tuesday. McCormack will then reshuffle his frontbench. Morrison ruled out a wider reshuffle.</p>
<p>McKenzie, who said she will stay in parliament, said in a statement she accepted the Gaetjens report but strongly defended herself.</p>
<p>“I maintain that at no time did my membership of shooting sports clubs influence my decision making, nor did I receive any personal gain.” However she acknowledged “my failure to declare my memberships in a timely manner constituted a breach of the Prime Minister’s Ministerial Standards”.</p>
<p>McKenzie said “elected representatives are responsible for public expenditure and take advice, not direction, from the public service and others. The operation of ministerial discretion is important to our democratic process.</p>
<p>"My support for the sport of shooting is well known and fully disclosed through my public advocacy. I will continue to back our sporting shooters against the ongoing, often misinformed, public debate about a sport that routinely wins Australian medals at the Olympics”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-coronavirus-adds-to-scott-morrisons-many-woes-130889">Grattan on Friday: Coronavirus adds to Scott Morrison's many woes</a>
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<p>Morrison was fulsome in his praise of McKenzie, saying she had done “amazing work” for regional Australia, showing “incredible application”. But “there are standards that must be upheld and she understands that and so do I.”</p>
<p>Looking to the future, Morrison stressed the government was adopting the Audit Office recommendation to bring in a consistent framework for situations where a minister decides upon the award of grants. </p>
<p>The Audit report said the advising, decision-making and reporting requirements applying where ministers approve grant funding should “be extended to apply to corporate Commonwealth entities in situations where a minister, rather than the corporate entity, is the decision- maker”.</p>
<p>The government had already announced it would adopt this recommendation.</p>
<p>Morrison also said Attorney-General Christian Porter had advised, after consulting the Australian Government Solicitor, that McKenzie did have the legal authority to make decisions about the grants. The question of this authority had been raised in the audit report but not answered.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Anthony Albanese said: “How does Angus Taylor remain in cabinet while Bridget McKenzie does not?” Energy Minister Taylor, on Sky on Sunday night, refused to say whether he had been interviewed by the federal police, who are considering the affair of an alleged forged document he used to make false claims about the carbon footprint of City of Sydney councillors.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the latest Newspoll, published in Monday’s Australian, shows a further worsening of the Coalition’s position, in the wake of a torrent of publicity about the sports rorts, as well as continuing debate about the response to the bushfire crisis. </p>
<p>The Coalition now trails Labor on a two-party basis 48-52% compared to 49-51% three weeks ago. The Coalition primary vote has fallen 2 points to 38%; Labor is down a point to 35%. </p>
<p>Albanese leads Morrison as better prime minister 43-38%.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the Nationals deputy leader resigning, the so-called “sports rorts” scandals is far from resolved.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257312019-10-23T06:14:49Z2019-10-23T06:14:49ZNationals leader Michael McCormack acknowledges snafu over Hanson dairy deal<p>Nationals leader Michael McCormack has admitted his party should have better handled agriculture minister Bridget McKenzie’s bring-forward of the planned dairy code.</p>
<p>Some Nationals were furious when McKenzie suddenly sped up the code’s preparation in a government deal with Pauline Hanson after they had been told the code - for which they had been pressing - could not be delivered until well into next year.</p>
<p>McCormack, who is deputy prime minister, said in hindsight it would have been better to have told Nationals who’d been agitating for the code that negotiations were underway, so they could have informed their electorates of the work they’d undertaken and the fact the code was close.</p>
<p>“Calls unfortunately weren’t made to the right people at the right time,” but sometimes things slipped through the cracks, he said.</p>
<p>McCormack, speaking in The Conversation’s politics podcast, played down another snafu, when the Nationals and Prime Minister Scott Morrison separately but simultaneously announced the government’s new cash grant to drought-stricken farmers coming off the Farm Household Allowance.</p>
<p>He noted he hadn’t called the news conference – it was called by McKenzie’s office – but said the result was that all bases had been covered. But he said, “Look, the call just wasn’t made. And certainly I know for the future, those calls will be made”.</p>
<p>McCormack said the government would do more on the drought within weeks and was currently considering measures, adding “there’s absolutely no question we need to do some more”. He indicated the government would release the report from former drought co-ordinator Stephen Day “in a couple of weeks, when cabinet has considered it”. The government has been under strong criticism for sitting on the Day report.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-deputy-pm-michael-mccormack-on-the-drought-and-restive-nationals-125727">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Deputy PM Michael McCormack on the drought and restive Nationals</a>
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<p>Beyond the coming measures, the drought issue would have to be addressed again next year if it did not rain in March-April, for the winter sowing season, McCormack said.</p>
<p>He flagged a willingness to look at the proposal from the National Farmers’ Federation (NFF), in its drought plan released earlier Wednesday, for exit assistance for farmers who decide to sell up because of the drought. He noted the federal government had helped with adjustment for the car industry. State governments would also have to look at readjustment assistance, he said.</p>
<p>“Yes, the federal government and indeed state governments would have to look at what readjustment, what exit strategies we could assist with.</p>
<p>"Indeed, we’ve done it with the car industry in Adelaide and in Melbourne. We’ve done it through diversifying interests in irrigation areas. We’ve done it in other industries where there’s been - well the tobacco industry, that’s another one that did receive, or people in that industry, did receive exit money.”</p>
<p>But he had a strong cautionary message for farmers thinking about whether to leave or stay.</p>
<p>“They need to absolutely make sure they don’t self-assess, they need to absolutely make sure that they consult their families foremost, that they talk to rural financial counsellors, they talk to their accountants, their banks.</p>
<p>"They take every bit of good advice available before they take that ultimate step and then look at what the future might hold.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-breaking-pauline-hansons-strike-has-taken-skin-off-bridget-mckenzie-125580">View from The Hill: Breaking Pauline Hanson's 'strike' has taken skin off Bridget McKenzie</a>
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<p>He had spoken to NFF president Fiona Simpson about this call for an exit strategy.</p>
<p>“That’s a difficult decision and outcome for the NFF to reach[…]encouraging or indeed calling for the exit strategy. That’s not the usual way. But this isn’t the usual drought,” he said.</p>
<p>Asked about NFF recommendations, also in their submission, for relief on local rates and Commonwealth subsidies for the payroll expenses of farming businesses, McCormack said these fell within the responsibility of state governments.</p>
<p>Questioned on the concern by some Nationals that Morrison had taken political “ownership” of the drought, squeezing out the junior Coalition partner, McCormack defended his own level of activity and said “we do things together. We’re in a Coalition together”.</p>
<p>Asked whether the Nationals needed to be more assertive this term, he said it was “important we’re not being seen to be argumentative all the time.”</p>
<p>He and Morrison had “our arguments behind closed doors – well, I won’t say arguments, let’s just term them differences of opinion.</p>
<p>"Sometimes we just agree to disagree,” he said.</p>
<p>“We are like-minded people, but we are different people. And we get on, you know, 99.9% of the time – when we disagree, we will disagree behind closed doors.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Speaking with The Conversation’s politics podcast, McCormack said in hindsight, it would have been better to have told Nationals who’d been agitating for the code that negotiations were underway.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257272019-10-23T06:12:03Z2019-10-23T06:12:03ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Deputy PM Michael McCormack on the drought and restive Nationals<p>While the drought continues to hit the Nationals’ constituents hard, the party faces testing terrain on a political level.</p>
<p>In this episode of Politics with Michelle Grattan, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack acknowledges the mishandling of the bring-forward of the dairy code, which will increase the negotiating power of milk producers. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-breaking-pauline-hansons-strike-has-taken-skin-off-bridget-mckenzie-125580">Tensions blew up</a> in the Nationals party room this week after Pauline Hanson managed last week to win an acceleration of the code. The deal was all about the government wanting Hanson’s Senate co-operation. But agriculture minister Bridget McKenzie had previously told Nationals who have been fighting for the code that it couldn’t be finalised until well into next year. </p>
<p>McCormack also shared his willingness to consider a proposal from the <a href="https://www.nff.org.au/read/6597/national-drought-policy.html">drought policy</a> released by the National Farmers’ Federation for exit assistance for drought-stricken farmers who sell. </p>
<p>But he had a cautionary message for those deciding whether to stay or leave, saying “they absolutely need to make sure they don’t self-assess. They need to absolutely make sure that they consult their families foremost, that they talk to rural financial counsellors, they talk to their accountants, their banks. They take every bit of good advice available before they take that ultimate step”.</p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="http://pca.st/BVa3#t=3m34s">here</a> to listen to Politics with Michelle Grattan on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear it on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Politics with Michelle Grattan.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<p><strong>Image:</strong></p>
<p>AAP/ Mick Tsikas</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following tensions in the Nationals party room over the bring-forward of the dairy code for Pauline Hanson, the Deputy PM admits that the party leadership mishandled the situation.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.